WorldWideScience

Sample records for century global analysis

  1. Global drought in the 20th and 21st centuries : analysis of retrospective simulations and future projections of soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, J.

    2008-01-01

    We describe the analysis of global and regional drought over the second half of the 20th century from a retrospective model simulation of the terrestrial water cycle, and projected 21st century changes using multi-scenario data from multiple climate models. A global meteorological forcing dataset is

  2. One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietschnig, Jakob; Voracek, Martin

    2015-05-01

    The Flynn effect (rising intelligence test performance in the general population over time and generations) varies enigmatically across countries and intelligence domains; its substantive meaning and causes remain elusive. This first formal meta-analysis on the topic revealed worldwide IQ gains across more than one century (1909-2013), based on 271 independent samples, totaling almost 4 million participants, from 31 countries. Key findings include that IQ gains vary according to domain (estimated 0.41, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.21 IQ points annually for fluid, spatial, full-scale, and crystallized IQ test performance, respectively), are stronger for adults than children, and have decreased in more recent decades. Altogether, these findings narrow down proposed theories and candidate factors presumably accounting for the Flynn effect. Factors associated with life history speed seem mainly responsible for the Flynn effect's general trajectory, whereas favorable social multiplier effects and effects related to economic prosperity appear to be responsible for observed differences of the Flynn effect across intelligence domains.

  3. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  4. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  5. Power and Influence: Global Dynamics in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    publications/WorkingPapers/WP165.pdf>. Nuńez, Joseph R. A 21st Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace...2005) Sheth, Jagdish N. and Rajendra S. Sisodia. Tectonic Shift: The Geoeconomic Realignment of Globalizing Markets. Thousand Oaks: Response, 2006...Joseph R. A 21st Century Security Architecture for the Americas: Multilateral Cooperation, Liberal Peace, and Soft Power. Carlisle Barracks: U.S

  6. Local/global: women artists in the nineteenth century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cherry, D.; Helland, J.

    2006-01-01

    Local/Global: Women Artists in the Nineteenth Century is the first book to investigate women artists working in disparate parts of the world. This major new book offers a dazzling array of compelling essays on art, architecture and design by leading writers: Joan Kerr on art in Australia by resident

  7. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  8. Deviation of Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea level from the global mean during the 20th century: analysis of the main factors involved and a high-end projection to the end of 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarascia, Luca; Lionello, Piero

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of this work is to investigate which are the main factors determining interannual sea level variability of Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, and to which extent the sea level of these three basins can deviate from the global mean. The three basins selected are semi-enclosed marginal seas connected with the adjacent seas by narrow straits. 13 sea level timeseries in Baltic Sea, 7 in Adriatic Sea and 5 in Black Sea provided by PSMSL, allowed us to compute a single seamless sea level timeseries representative for each basin from 1900 and for the entire 20th century, using statistical tools (PCA and Least Square method). Comparison with satellite data in the period 1993-2009, confirms that timeseries so computed are good representations of the observed sea level, with correlation values of 0.97, 0.87 and 0.72 for Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea respectively. At basin scale the sea level has been decomposed in various contributions that have been separately analyzed: local effect of pressure, steric effect due to temperature and salinity variation, boundary forcing, wind effect and river discharge. The annual cycles and their variability, show that the largest contribution is due to the wind for the Adriatic Sea and for the Baltic Sea. In these two basins the inverse Barometer effect plays a minor role and the steric factor is almost negligible. The wind seems to play a negligible role on Black Sea, where the Danube river discharge plays an important role. A linear regression model, built considering large scale sea level pressure distribution as predictor, is capable to explain a further percentage of sea level variability variability (about 20%) left after subtracting all the factors considered above. Sea level of the Baltic and Black Sea show a significant positive correlation (0.3 about) revealing the likely influence of an external common forcing. Past sea level variability shows no strong evidences of large deviation from the global mean sea level

  9. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

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    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  10. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerten, Dieter; Rost, Stefanie; von Bloh, Werner; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2008-10-01

    A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge (Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901-2002 (trend, 30.8 km3 a-2, equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, +24.7 km3 a-2). Global warming (-3.1), rising CO2 (+4.4), land cover changes (+5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle.

  11. Global physical water scarcity trajectories for the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Eisner, Stefanie; Flörke, Martina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Food security and the overall wellbeing of human kind are threatened by overexploitation of our freshwater resources. Water scarcity is not only a threat to people, but also to many of the planet's key ecosystems. Due to increasing population pressure, changing water consumption behaviour, and climate change, the threat is projected to become even worse in the future. Water can be physically scarce in two ways: population-driven water shortage occurs in areas where a large population has to depend on a limited resources (indicated by m3/capita/yr), while demand-driven water stress is related to the excessive use of otherwise sufficient water resources (indicated by demand/supply ratio). Although many studies have increased our understanding of current water scarcity and how this may increase in the future, the understanding of trajectories with the past development of the water scarcity is less well understood. To date, studies of past water resources have focused on either water shortage or water stress. We aim to calculate global water scarcity, both water stress and water shortage, for the period 1900-2005. We can thus provide, for the first time, continuous regional trends and local analyses of trajectories of water scarcity for the entire 20th century. By including both dimensions of water scarcity, we can increase the understanding of reasons behind the scarcity. We found that in year 1900 13% of the population (i.e. 0.22 billion people) was living in areas that suffer some kind of water scarcity (capita/yr or ratio >0.2), while in year 2005 this percentage has increased to 57% (3.80 billion). Especially the population suffering from both high water stress (ratio >0.4) and high water shortage (capita/yr) has risen considerably, from 2% (29 million people) in 1900, up to 19% (1.2 billion people) in 2005. Geographically these concern mainly northern African regions, the Middle East, Pakistan and parts of India and Northern China. The region of sub

  12. Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion. PMID:27549569

  13. Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lawler, Joshua J; Olden, Julian D; Blumenthal, Dana M; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P; Sorte, Cascade J B; Tatem, Andrew J

    2016-08-23

    Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

  14. Global SST influence on twentieth century NAO variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorologisches Institut, Universitaet Bonn, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Latif, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, 20146 Hamburg (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    Recent studies have suggested that sea surface temperature (SST) is an important source of variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we deal with four basic aspects contributing to this issue: (1) we investigate the characteristic time scales of this oceanic influence; (2) quantify the scale-dependent hindcast potential of the NAO during the twentieth century as derived from SST-driven atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensembles; (3) the relevant oceanic regions are identified, corresponding SST indices are defined and their relationship to the NAO are evaluated by means of cross spectral analysis and (4) our results are compared with long-term coupled control experiments with different ocean models in order to ensure whether the spectral relationship between the SST regions and the NAO is an intrinsic mode of the coupled climate system, involving the deep ocean circulation, rather than an artefact of the unilateral SST forcing. The observed year-to-year NAO fluctuations are barely influenced by the SST. On the decadal time scales the major swings of the observed NAO are well reproduced by various ensembles from the middle of the twentieth century onward, including the negative state in the 1960s and part of the positive trend afterwards. A six-member ECHAM4-T42 ensemble reveals that the SST boundary condition affects 25% of total decadal-mean and interdecadal-trend NAO variability throughout the twentieth century. The most coherent NAO-related SST feature is the well-known North Atlantic tripole. Additional contributions may arise from the southern Pacific and the low-latitude Indian Ocean. The coupled climate model control runs suggest only the North Atlantic SST-NAO relationship as being a true characteristic of the coupled climate system. The coherence and phase spectra of observations and coupled simulations are in excellent agreement, confirming the robustness of this decadal-scale North Atlantic air-sea coupled mode. (orig.)

  15. Dance Education in the 21st Century: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Anne Green

    2005-01-01

    Margaret H'Doubler brought the magic of dance to the 20th century, yet the 21st century has yet to find a person to rekindle the same public desire for dance education. Consequently, the future of dance education in the next century is hard to predict. Based on an informal survey of fellow advisory board members of Dance and the Child…

  16. Global peat erosion risk assessment for the 21st Century

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    Li, Pengfei; Irvine, Brian; Holden, Joseph

    2015-04-01

    Many peatlands across the world are suffering from degradation and erosion exacerbated by human influences. Blanket peat erosion has adverse impacts on terrestrial and aquatic habitats, reservoir capacity and water quality, and also leads to accelerated carbon release. Bioclimatic modelling suggests that some areas, which are currently suitable for active peat growth, may be no longer under a climate supporting the accumulation of peat by the end of the century. Peat erosion in these marginal regions is thus more likely. A recently developed blanket peat erosion model, PESERA-PEAT, was established through significantly modifying the grid version of the Pan-European Soil Erosion Assessment model (PESERA-GRID) to explicitly include the freeze-thaw and desiccation processes, which appear to be the crucial drivers of peat erosion, and typical land management practices in blanket peatlands such as artificial drainage, grazing and managed burning. Freeze-thaw and desiccation are estimated based on climate (i.e. temperature) and soil moisture conditions. Land management practices interact with hydrology, erosion and vegetation growth via their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. The model has been demonstrated to be robust for blanket peat erosion modelling with riverine sediment flux data in the UK. In this paper, the PESERA-PEAT model is applied to investigate the impact of environmental change on the blanket peat erosion at a global scale. Climatic scenarios to the end of 21st Century were derived, as part of the QUEST-GSI initiative, from the outputs of seven global climate models: CGCM3 and CCCMA (Canada); CSIRO Mark III (Australia); IPSL (France); ECHAM5 (Germany); CCSM (US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)); HadCM3 and HadGEM1 (UK). Land management practice such as artificial drainage is considered to examine if it is possible to buffer the impact of climate change on erosion through managing blanket peatlands in

  17. Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

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    Krumhansl, Kira A.; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.; Salomon, Anne K.; Shears, Nick T.; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J.; Barrett, Nevell S.; Buschmann, Alejandro H.; Carr, Mark H.; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J.; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A.; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C.; Kushner, David J.; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S.; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D.

    2016-01-01

    Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y−1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y−1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y−1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. PMID:27849580

  18. Globalization and Chinese Education in the Early 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Paul J.

    2013-01-01

    With China's growing significance in the global economy ever more evident, studies in recent years have highlighted multiple aspects of China's "Globalization" (or global connections) that predate the contemporary period. This article focuses on educational reform in the late Qing and early Republic as a way of illuminating a significant…

  19. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  20. Global reconstructed daily surge levels from the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871-2010)

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    Cid, Alba; Camus, Paula; Castanedo, Sonia; Méndez, Fernando J.; Medina, Raúl

    2017-01-01

    Studying the effect of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients on the sea level variation (storm surge) is a key issue in understanding the recent climate change effect on the dynamical state of the ocean. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time, scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. A recent global surge database developed by AVISO (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction) fulfilled the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent, since it only includes the last two decades (1992-2014). In this work, we use the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 (20CR), which spans the years 1871 to 2010, to statistically reconstruct daily maximum surge levels at a global scale. A multivariate linear regression model is fitted between daily mean ERA-interim sea level pressure fields and daily maximum surge levels from DAC. Following, the statistical model is used to reconstruct daily surges using mean sea level pressure fields from 20CR. The verification of the statistical model shows good agreements between DAC levels and the reconstructed surge levels from the 20CR. The validation of the reconstructed surge with tide gauges, distributed throughout the domain, shows good accuracy both in terms of high correlations and small errors. A time series comparison is also depicted at specific tide gauges for the beginning of the 20th century, showing a high concordance. Therefore, this work provides to the scientific community, a daily database of maximum surge levels; which correspond to an extension of the DAC database, from 1871 to 2010. This database can be used to improve the knowledge on historical storm surge conditions, allowing the study of their temporal and spatial variability.

  1. Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-01-01

    The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

  2. Impacts of external forcing on the 20th century global warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impacts of external forcing, including natural and anthropogenic, on the 20th century global warming were assessed with the use of the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG Version 1.1.0, following the standard coordinated experiment design of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) International Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C), Phase II. The results indicate that external forcing plays an important role in the evolution of the land surface air temperature on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales, and contributes greatly to the global warming in the following two periods: the early twentieth century between the 1910s and the 1940s and the late twentieth century after the 1970s. External forcing also has strong impact on the regional temperature change during the two warming periods except for parts of the Eurasia and the North America continents. In the cooling period, however, the impact of internal variability is dominant.

  3. Modeling global water use for the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, Van M.T.H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and w

  4. The Global Contradiction of the 21rst Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Erik LANE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As global temperatures keep increasing and the amount of Co2 equivalent stuff in the atmosphere is at record level, the key links between GDP growth, energy consumption expansion and greenhouse gases emission increases must be more researched, although economic growth and ecological capital has been much debated: Can they today be combined to give both prosperity and environmental sustainability?  On the micro level, many projects show that this is indeed possible. But on the macro level, global emissions of greenhouse gases follow the advancement of country affluence closely. The link is the constantly increasing need for more energy, provided by fossil fuels. The G20 policies are probably forthcoming too late to avoid disasters.

  5. Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century.

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    Hwang, Jackelyn

    2016-02-01

    Few studies have considered the role of immigration in the rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying neighborhoods were "global" in the 1970s or became so over time. An early presence of Asians was positively associated with gentrification; and an early presence of Hispanics was positively associated with gentrification in neighborhoods with substantial shares of blacks and negatively associated with gentrification in cities with high Hispanic growth, where ethnic enclaves were more likely to form. Low-income, predominantly black neighborhoods and neighborhoods that became Asian and Hispanic destinations remained ungentrified despite the growth of gentrification during the late twentieth century. The findings suggest that the rise of immigration after 1965 brought pioneers to many low-income central-city neighborhoods, spurring gentrification in some neighborhoods and forming ethnic enclaves in others.

  6. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inaya eHajj Hussein

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response.The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the 18th century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Jenner, the father of vaccination and immunology, published his work on small pox.The 19th century was a major landmark, with the Germ Theory of disease of Louis Pasteur, the discovery of the germ tubercle bacillus for tuberculosis by Robert Koch, and the isolation of pneumococcus organism by George Miller Sternberg. Another landmark was the discovery of diphtheria toxin by Emile Roux and its serological treatment by Emil Von Behring and Paul Ehrlih. In addition, Pasteur was able to generate the first live attenuated viral vaccine against rabies. Typhoid vaccines were then developed, followed by the plague vaccine of Yersin. At the beginning of World War I, the tetanus toxoid was introduced, followed in 1915 by the pertussis vaccine. In 1974, The Expanded Program of Immunization was established within the WHO for BCG, Polio, DTP, measles, yellow fever and hepatitis B. The year 1996 witnessed the launching of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. In 1988, the WHO passed a resolution to eradicate polio by the year 2000 and in 2006; the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer was developed. In 2010 The Decade of vaccines was launched, and on April 1st 2012, the United Nations launched the shot@Life campaign. In brief, the armamentarium of vaccines continues to grow with more emphasis on safety, availability and accessibility. This mini review highlights the major historical events and pioneers in the course of development of vaccines, which have eradicated

  7. Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Albert

    2012-01-01

    Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

  8. Global solar wind variations over the last four centuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, M J; Lockwood, M; Riley, P

    2017-01-31

    The most recent "grand minimum" of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650-1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth's magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima.

  9. Global solar wind variations over the last four centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, M. J.; Lockwood, M.; Riley, P.

    2017-01-01

    The most recent “grand minimum” of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650–1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth’s magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima.

  10. Global Logistic Network of Courier Services for the 21" Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratko Zelenika

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of logistics has contributed a lot to all thebranches of economy. A successful economic subject cannotexist without a well-developed logistic branch. In economicsthe organization of logistics is becoming a strategic element regardingthe policy making of enterprises. Logistics belongs to anarea that will play an important role in our lives; therefore, thedevelopment of a logistic system is of an exceptional significancefor the economy and also for the non-economic sphere ofactivities. So, modem logistics enables us to bring into line differentinterests in management of material current. Global organizersof logistic services are developing and specializing insome essential services, such as combining of cargo into assemblyconsignments and also their distribution. The biggest globaltenderers of logistic services are considered, DHL, TNT,FEDEX, UPS ...

  11. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  12. A Comment on Class Productions in Elite Secondary Schools in Twenty-First-Century Global Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weis, Lois

    2014-01-01

    In this closing essay, Lois Weis offers a broad overview of the contributions of this Special Issue on class production in elite secondary schools in the twenty-first-century global context. Drawing upon her own research within US privileged secondary schools, Weis explores the contemporary social, economic and political landscape as connected to…

  13. Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meng, Qingjia [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, River and Coastal Environment Research Center, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Qingdao (China); Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Martin, Thomas [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Semenov, Vladimir A. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2012-05-15

    Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable. (orig.)

  14. New legal Concepts in the XXIst Century Global Society: from “Global Good Governance” to “Global Eco-diplomacy”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mădălina Virginia ANTONESCU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, we’ll try to analyze briefly some of the concepts commonly used in the domain of international relations, connected to the field of human rights and we’ll attempt to show their connection to other areas as human security, human development and sustainable development. After briefly analyzing the content of concepts such as global governance, good governance, we’ll reveal their relation to the concept of environmental security, due to the reality that, for the XXIst century global world, the protection and preservation of the Earth environment will represent one of the fundamental obligations of the political actors. This ethical (the ethical element representing, within the global society of XXIst century, one of the most important instruments of the global post-capitalist policy and legal obligation (consolidating an authentic global environmental law, significantly enriched from the sanction-implementation viewpoint, as compared to the current set of international environmental regulations law, deeply enriched at compulsory level, in comparison with the present legal body of environmental law will be implemented not only regarding state actors but also, non-state actors which cannot be neglected anymore in the XXIst century global society. We’ll also analyze other juridical concepts as eco-development, sustainable development, with some short observations regarding a global environmental law. The third section will present some considerations over the perspective of introducing “the rights of the nature”, within the XXIst century international law, where environment would be a distinct subject of international law, nearby states and international organizations, enjoying a special range of distinct rights. The fourth section focuses on the perspectives of eco-diplomacy and its legal nature (an inclusive type of diplomacy, based on the harmonious relation between the human being and nature or, on a contrary

  15. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day-1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day-1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked.

  16. Effects of Irrigation on Global Climate During the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, M. J.; Cook, B. I.

    2010-01-01

    Various studies have documented the effects of modern ]day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time ]varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time ]varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June.August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century fs end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December.February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near ]surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation ]climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.

  17. Early twentieth century response of the global atmospheric electric circuit to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, G.; Joshi, M.

    2012-04-01

    The global atmospheric electric circuit links charge separation in disturbed weather regions with current flow in the fair weather regions elsewhere. Variations in disturbed weather, such as the changes in lightning associated with Pacific ocean temperature anomalies, can be expected in turn to modify currents flowing in the global atmospheric electric circuit. Strengthening and weakening of the global circuit current has been observed* to follow El Niño and La Niña respectively, from northern hemisphere atmospheric electricity data obtained during the 1970s. Extending this relationship quantitatively into the first half of the twentieth century is pursued here, using surface data from multiple atmospheric electricity observatories including measurements from the southern hemisphere. The independent atmospheric electricity time series from the observatories show similar variations, which is a pre-requisite for inferring global circuit variations from surface measurement. Combining the measurements allows the global circuit sensitivity to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies to be derived during the earlier part of the twentieth century. * R.G. Harrison, M. Joshi, K. Pascoe, Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland Environ Res Lett 6 (2011) 044028 http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044028/

  18. Changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, Arthur; van Beek, Rens; Bouwman, Lex; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    Dramatic world-wide changes occurred during the 20th century in both nutrient delivery and in-stream retention. In this paper, we use a combined nutrient-input, hydrology, in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Global nutrient delivery almost doubled due to expanding agriculture and increasing wastewater discharge. Nutrient retention also increased by a factor of two as a result of the rapidly growing number of dams and reservoirs. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers. River export to coastal seas increased during the 20th century from 19 to 37 Tg yr-1 of N and 2 to 4 Tg yr-1 of P. There are important differences in riverine N:P export ratios in various parts of the world resulting from the interplay of multiple processes and economic activities in different river basins. Increasing nutrient loading of freshwater systems is a threat to water quality. Furthermore, the global river export increase in the molar N:P ratio during recent decades may affect the ecology within both the river basins and the coastal system. This ratio change may be driven by the recent stagnation of P fertilizer use in most industrialized countries, in comparison to the ever increasing N fertilizer use.

  19. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wisser

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation and reservoir operations. The two sets of simulations allow the isolation of the trends arising from variations in the climate input driver alone and from human interventions. The sensitivity of the results to variations in input data was tested by using three global gridded datasets of precipitation.

    Our findings confirm that the expansion of irrigation and the construction of reservoirs has significantly and gradually impacted hydrological components in individual river basins. Variations in the volume of water entering the oceans annually, however, are governed primarily by variations in the climate signal alone with human activities playing a minor role. Globally, we do not find a significant trend in the terrestrial discharge over the last century.

    The largest impact of human intervention on the hydrological cycle arises from the operation of reservoirs that drastically changes the seasonal pattern of horizontal water transport in the river system and thereby directly and indirectly affects a number of processes such as ability to decompose organic matter or the cycling of nutrients in the river system.

  20. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Fekete, B. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Schumann, A. H.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities) and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation and reservoir operations). The two sets of simulations allow the isolation of the trends arising from variations in the climate input driver alone and from human interventions. The sensitivity of the results to variations in input data was tested by using three global gridded datasets of precipitation. Our findings confirm that the expansion of irrigation and the construction of reservoirs has significantly and gradually impacted hydrological components in individual river basins. Variations in the volume of water entering the oceans annually, however, are governed primarily by variations in the climate signal alone with human activities playing a minor role. Globally, we do not find a significant trend in the terrestrial discharge over the last century. The largest impact of human intervention on the hydrological cycle arises from the operation of reservoirs that drastically changes the seasonal pattern of horizontal water transport in the river system and thereby directly and indirectly affects a number of processes such as ability to decompose organic matter or the cycling of nutrients in the river system.

  1. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

  2. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wisser

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th Century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation and reservoir operations. The two sets of simulations allow the isolation of the trends arising from variations in the climate input driver alone and from human interventions. Our findings confirm that the expansion of irrigation and the construction has significantly and gradually impacted hydrological components in individual river basins. Variations in the volume of water entering the oceans, however, are governed by variations in the climate signal alone with human activities playing secondary role. Globally, we do find a significant trend in the terrestrial discharge over the last century.

    The largest impact of human intervention on the hydrological cycle arises from the operation of reservoirs that drastically changes the seasonal pattern of horizontal water transport in the river system and thereby directly and indirectly affects a number of processes.

  3. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Lanen, Henny A. J.; Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-04-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5o globally for 1971-2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs), from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM) was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971-2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt) is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40-52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4 %), compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20 %). The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial

  4. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  5. Global analysis studies and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Gliklikh, Yuri; Vershik, A

    1992-01-01

    This volume (a sequel to LNM 1108, 1214, 1334 and 1453) continues the presentation to English speaking readers of the Voronezh University press series on Global Analysis and Its Applications. The papers are selected fromtwo Russian issues entitled "Algebraic questions of Analysis and Topology" and "Nonlinear Operators in Global Analysis". CONTENTS: YuE. Gliklikh: Stochastic analysis, groups of diffeomorphisms and Lagrangian description of viscous incompressible fluid.- A.Ya. Helemskii: From topological homology: algebras with different properties of homological triviality.- V.V. Lychagin, L.V. Zil'bergleit: Duality in stable Spencer cohomologies.- O.R. Musin: On some problems of computational geometry and topology.- V.E. Nazaikinskii, B.Yu. Sternin, V.E.Shatalov: Introduction to Maslov's operational method (non-commutative analysis and differential equations).- Yu.B. Rudyak: The problem of realization of homology classes from Poincare up to the present.- V.G. Zvyagin, N.M. Ratiner: Oriented degree of Fredholm...

  6. Globalization and Glassy Ideality of the Web of Twentieth Century Science

    CERN Document Server

    Phillips, J C

    2010-01-01

    Scientific communication is an essential part of modern science: whereas Archimedes worked alone, Newton (correspondence with Hooke, 1676) acknowledged that "If I have seen a little further, it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants." How is scientific communication reflected in the patterns of citations in scientific papers? How have these patterns changed in the 20th century, as both means of communication and individual transportation changed rapidly, compared to the earlier post-Newton 18th and 19th centuries? Here we discuss a glass model for scientific communications, based on a unique 2009 scientometric study of 25 million papers and 600 million citations that encapsulates the epistemology of modern science. The glass model predicts and explains, using no adjustable parameters, a surprisingly universal internal structure in the development of scientific research, which is essentially constant across the natural sciences, but which because of globalization changed qualitatively around 1960. Globaliza...

  7. Determination and characterization of 20th century global sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chung-Yen

    In this study, we provide a determination of the 20th Century (1900--2002) global sea level rise, the associated error budgets, and the quantifications of the various geophysical sources of the observed sea level rise, using data and geophysical models. We analyzed significant geographical variations of the global sea level including those caused by the steric component (heat and salinity) in the ocean, and the self-gravitational signal as a result of ice sheets melting, including the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) since the Pleistocene. In particular, relative sea level data from long-term (longest is 150 year records) and over 600 tide gauge sites globally from PSMSL and other sources, and geocentric sea level data from multiple satellite altimetry (1985--2005) have been used to determine and characterize 20th century global sea level rise. Altimeter and selected tide gauge sea level data have been used for the 20th century sea level determination, accounting for relative biases between the altimeters, effects of sea level corresponding to oceanic thermal expansion, vertical motions affecting tide gauge measurements, self gravitations, and barotropic ocean response. This study is also characterized by the roles of the polar ocean in the global sea level study and addressing the question whether there is a detectable sea level rise acceleration during the last decade. Vertical motions have been estimated by combining geocentric sea level measurements from satellite altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON) and long-term relative (crust-fixed) sea level records from global tide gauges using the Gauss-Markov (GM) model with stochastic constraints. The study provided a demonstration of improved vertical motion solutions in semi-enclosed seas and lakes, including Fennoscandia and the Great Lakes region, showing excellent agreement with independent GPS observed radial velocities, or with predictions from GIA models. In general, the estimated uncertainty of the observed

  8. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five GCMs and four emission scenarios (RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime, has a substantial influence on future hydrological drought characteristics.

  9. The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakmar, Susan

    2010-09-15

    As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

  10. Convex analysis and global optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Tuy, Hoang

    2016-01-01

    This book presents state-of-the-art results and methodologies in modern global optimization, and has been a staple reference for researchers, engineers, advanced students (also in applied mathematics), and practitioners in various fields of engineering. The second edition has been brought up to date and continues to develop a coherent and rigorous theory of deterministic global optimization, highlighting the essential role of convex analysis. The text has been revised and expanded to meet the needs of research, education, and applications for many years to come. Updates for this new edition include: · Discussion of modern approaches to minimax, fixed point, and equilibrium theorems, and to nonconvex optimization; · Increased focus on dealing more efficiently with ill-posed problems of global optimization, particularly those with hard constraints;

  11. Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP/LASG GOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马晓燕; 郭裕福; 石广玉; 俞永强

    2004-01-01

    The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations,including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11°C over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.

  12. Portuguese knights-errant in nineteenth-century Paris and Rio: translation as response to exile in global cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Bueno Maia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to uncover the role played by a series of picaresque novels translated into Portuguese and published in midnineteenth-century Paris in helping the Portuguese diaspora cope with the challenges of being a migrant in a global city. Through a contextual analysis, it will be argued that these novels were part of vaster cultural projects aimed at establishing solidarity networks among Portuguese exiles in Paris and, at the same time, at preserving multilingualism. By means of a textual analysis of Dom Severino Magriço ou o Dom Quichote portuguez (Paris, Pillet Fils Aîné, 1851, it will be suggested that this particular target text is committed to helping Portuguese migrants in Paris and in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, this novel illustrates ways of engaging with multiple Others, mainly through the reading and comparing of national literary canons.

  13. Global Curricular Legacies and Challenges for The Twenty-First Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Brock

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to examine the evolution of what has become a near global and conventional school curriculum, the forces behind its development and the purposes of education, its sponsors and controllers espouse, and to set it against the massive and urgent challenges of the 21st century. This century looks to be a unique one in that it could be the tipping point between human and environmental survival, and disaster on a massive scale. The argument is that this near global view of the purpose of education is misconceived and dangerous unless there is rapid and fundamental change in the purposes of educating the young. Those older than 10 are mostly already 'lost'. In search of a more appropriate purpose and structure of curriculum, the work of a prominent few who are not yet 'lost' is drawn upon, especially that of George Martin. founder of the Oxford Martin School. The purpose of education must now, and urgently, be the survival of the human species and the planet, not only in basic terms but also in terms of controlling increasingly powerful and sophisticated computer technologies known as the Singularity that could spiral out of control.

  14. Globalization and environmental challenges. Reconceptualizing security in the 21{sup st} century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City (MX). Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Economics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland); Chadha Behera, Navnita [Jamia Millia Islamia Univ., New Delhi (India). Nelson Mandela Center for Peace and Conflict Resolution; Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Nairobi Univ. (Kenya), Dept. of Private Law; Liotta, P.H. (eds.) [Salve Regina Univ., Newport, RI (United States). Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy

    2008-07-01

    Put quite simply, the twin impacts of globalization and environmental degradation pose new security dangers and concerns. In this comprehensive new work on global security thinking, 91 authors from five continents and many disciplines, from science and practice, assess the worldwide reassessment of the meaning of security triggered by the end of the Cold War and globalization, as well as the multifarious impacts of global environmental change in the early 21st century. Chapters address the theoretical, philosophical, ethical and religious and spatial context of security. They analyze the relationship between security, peace, development and environment. The authors move on to review the rethinking of security in international law, economics and political science, as well as in the key political, military and economic milieux. The book also examines the environmental security dimension and the adaptation of the institutional security concepts of the UN, EU and NATO, and analyzes the effect of change on regional security. Finally, it posits alternative security futures and draws conclusions for future research and action. (orig.)

  15. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

  16. Global Analysis of Neutrino Oscillation

    CERN Document Server

    Goswami, S; Choubey, S; Goswami, Srubabati; Bandyopadhyay, Abhijit; Choubey, Sandhya

    2005-01-01

    We present the constraints on neutrino oscillation parameters $\\Delta m^2_{\\odot}$ and $\\theta_{\\odot}$ governing the solar neutrino oscillations from two generation analysis of solar and KamLAND data. We include the latest 766.3 ton year KamLAND data in our analysis. We also present the allowed values of parameters $\\Delta m^2_{atm}$ and $\\sin^2\\theta_{atm}$ from two generation oscillation analysis of SuperKamiokande atmospheric and K2K data. For both cases we discuss the precision achieved in the present set of experiments and also how the precision can be improved in future. We also obtain the bounds on $\\theta_{13}$ from three generation analysis of global oscillation data. We emphasise on the roles played by different data sets in constraining the allowed parameter ranges.

  17. Global Analysis of Neutrino Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goswami, Srubabati [Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211 019 (India); Bandyopadhyay, Abhijit [Theory Group, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, 1/AF, Bidhannagar, Calcutta 700 064 (India); Choubey, Sandhya [INFN, Sezione di Trieste and Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati, I-34014, Trieste (Italy)

    2005-06-15

    We present the constraints on neutrino oscillation parameters {delta}m{sub -}bar {sup 2} and {theta}{sub -}bar governing the solar neutrino oscillations from two generation analysis of solar and KamLAND data. We include the latest 766.3 ton year KamLAND data in our analysis. We also present the allowed values of parameters {delta}m{sub atm}{sup 2} and sin{sup 2}{theta}{sub atm} from two generation oscillation analysis of SuperKamiokande atmospheric and K2K data. For both cases we discuss the precision achieved in the present set of experiments and also how the precision can be improved in future. We also obtain the bounds on {theta}{sub 13} from three generation analysis of global oscillation data. We emphasise on the roles played by different data sets in constraining the allowed parameter ranges.

  18. Trends in 20th Century Global Rainfall Interception as Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Implications for Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Steve; Prentice, Colin

    2010-05-01

    In order to monitor and forecast regions of potential freshwater stress and surplus, a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the global hydrological cycle and its components is needed. Such work should lead to better constrained estimates of freshwater fluxes and facilitate the identification of regions requiring enhanced water management. The research described here aims to quantify the contribution of climate- and CO2-induced changes in the physical properties of the land surface, mediated by biological processes. Global climate change is expected to bring about substantial latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in vegetation cover. Shifts in species distribution, the potential of increased leaf area index (LAI) but also reduced stomatal conductance in response to rising concentrations of CO2, and variability in precipitation, can all influence rates and spatial variability of the interception-throughfall balance. These effects will have implications for runoff generation and the partitioning between 'green' and 'white' water fluxes. The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM, a development of the LPJ model) was evaluated in terms of its interception component and used to simulate trends in global relative throughfall from 1901-2006, as this is directly relevant for runoff. We estimate that mean global annual runoff was reduced by 164 ±18 km3/year during the twentieth century as a result of biophysical changes controlling relative throughfall generation. Widespread decreases in relative throughfall of typically between 0 and -1% are evident between 1901-1953 and 1954-2006. Changes of up to

  19. Global reconstructed daily storm surge levels from the 20th century reanalysis (1871-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, Alba; Camus, Paula; Castanedo, Sonia; Mendez, Fernando; Medina, Raul

    2015-04-01

    The study of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients, and more specifically, their effect on the sea level variation (storm surge), is a key issue in the understanding of recent climate changes. The local effect of storm surges on coastal areas (zones particularly vulnerable to climate variability and changes in sea level), is also of great interest in, for instance, flooding risk assessment. Studying the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time and scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. The development of a global storm surge database (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction by Aviso, Carrère and Lyard, 2003) fulfils the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent since it only includes last couple of decades (1992-2014). In this work, we propose the use of the 20CR ensemble (Compo et al., 2011) which spans from 1871 to 2010 to statistically reconstruct storm surge at a global scale and for a long period of time. Therefore, the temporal and spatial variability of storm surges can be fully studied and with much less effort than performing a dynamical downscaling. The statistical method chosen to carry out the reconstruction is based on multiple linear regression between an atmospheric predictor and the storm surge level at daily scale (Camus et al., 2014). The linear regression model is calibrated and validated using daily mean sea level pressure fields (and gradients) from the ERA-interim reanalysis and daily maxima surges from DAC. The obtained daily database of maximum daily surges has allowed us to estimate global trends at a centennial scale and analyse the effect of the changing climate on storm surges during the 20th century. Hence, this work improves the knowledge on historical storm-surge conditions and provides helpful information to the community concern on marine climate evolution and

  20. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  1. Brief Communication: Global glacier mass loss reconstructions during the 20th century are consistent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Marzeion

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise during the 20th century that were published in recent years are strongly divergent. Advances in data availability have allowed revisions of some of these published estimates. Here we show that outside of Antarctica, the global estimates of glacier mass loss obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other, and also with an estimate for the years 2003–2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist in estimates on regional scales.

  2. Assessing the impact of vertical land motion on twentieth century global mean sea level estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

    2016-07-01

    Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.24 ± 0.08 mm yr-1 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

  3. Global warming projection in the 21st century based on an observational data-driven model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xubin; Geil, Kerrie

    2016-10-01

    Global warming has been projected primarily by Earth system models (ESMs). Complementary to this approach, here we provide the decadal and long-term global warming projections based on an observational data-driven model. This model combines natural multidecadal variability with anthropogenic warming that depends on the history of annual emissions. It shows good skill in decadal hindcasts with the recent warming slowdown well captured. While our ensemble mean temperature projections at the end of 21st century are consistent with those from ESMs, our decadal warming projection of 0.35 (0.30-0.43) K from 1986-2005 to 2016-2035 is within their projection range and only two-thirds of the ensemble mean from ESMs. Our predicted warming rate in the next few years is slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a greater warming rate. Our projection uncertainty range is just one-third of that from ESMs, and its implication is also discussed.

  4. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  5. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st) century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  6. Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gregory, J.M.; White, N.J.; Church, J.A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Box, J.E.; Broeke, M.R. van den; Cogley, J.G.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Huybrechts, P.; Konikow, L.F.; Leclercq, P.W.; Marzeion, B.; Oerlemans, J.; Tamisiea, E.; Wada, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been

  7. Global Uranium And Thorium Resources: Are They Adequate To Satisfy Demand Over The Next Half Century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, I. B.

    2012-04-01

    This presentation will consider the adequacy of global uranium and thorium resources to meet realistic nuclear power demand scenarios over the next half century. It is presented on behalf of, and based on evaluations by, the Uranium Group - a joint initiative of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, of which the author is a Vice Chair. The Uranium Group produces a biennial report on Uranium Resources, Production and Demand based on information from some 40 countries involved in the nuclear fuel cycle, which also briefly reviews thorium resources. Uranium: In 2008, world production of uranium amounted to almost 44,000 tonnes (tU). This supplied approximately three-quarters of world reactor requirements (approx. 59,000 tU), the remainder being met by previously mined uranium (so-called secondary sources). Information on availability of secondary sources - which include uranium from excess inventories, dismantling nuclear warheads, tails and spent fuel reprocessing - is incomplete, but such sources are expected to decrease in market importance after 2013. In 2008, the total world Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources of uranium (recoverable at less than 130/kgU) amounted to 5.4 million tonnes. In addition, it is clear that there are vast amounts of uranium recoverable at higher costs in known deposits, plus many as yet undiscovered deposits. The Uranium Group has concluded that the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet projected high-case requirements for nuclear power for at least half a century. This conclusion does not assume increasing replacement of uranium by fuels from reprocessing current reactor wastes, or by thorium, nor greater reactor efficiencies, which are likely to ameliorate future uranium demand. However, progressively increasing quantities of uranium will need to be mined, against a backdrop of the relatively small number of producing facilities around the world, geopolitical uncertainties and

  8. Conference Report: Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Jan-Henrik

    Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies KFG International Conference held on 25-27 October 2012 The long rays of the yellow autumn sun shining on the red leaves of the Free University Berlin's Dahlem Campus...... provided a local touch of nature for an international conference devoted to the protection of the environment on a global scale. Sixteen researchers from eleven different countries from Europe and overseas gathered from 25 to 27 October 2012 at the Free University's Silberlaube conference centre to discuss...... "Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies". The conference was hosted and sponsored by the Research College "The Transformative Power of Europe" (jointly directed by TANJA BÖRZEL and THOMAS RISSE) at Free University's Otto...

  9. 21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

  10. Building Networks for Science: Conflict and Cooperation in Nineteenth-Century Global Marine Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achbari, Azadeh

    2015-06-01

    In the nineteenth-century globalizing world of colonial expansion and maritime trade, systematic study of ocean currents and winds became of increased concern in various seafaring nations. Both naval officers and university professors engaged in maritime meteorological and hydrographic research. In order to attract the attention of the state and obtain support for establishment of national scientific institutes, university professors teamed up with naval officers in building networks for maritime data collection, thus connecting practical utility to academic credentials. This paper looks into the combined efforts of the U.S. Navy lieutenant M. F. Maury and the Dutch naval officer M. H. Jansen in organizing the 1853 International Maritime Conference in Brussels, which aimed to develop a worldwide system of uniform atmospheric and marine observations. Such efforts, however, amounted to walking a tightrope between mutual interests and personal rivalries. The alliance between elite scientists and naval officers proved to be only temporary. Once the meteorological institutes were established, academically trained meteorologists gradually marginalized the role of naval officers in scientific research at the institutes, thereby establishing and securing their authority in maritime science.

  11. Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

    OpenAIRE

    Kira A. Krumhansl; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus,Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.

    2016-01-01

    Kelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change...

  12. Climate mitigation’s impact on global and regional electric power sector water use in the 21st Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan

    2013-08-05

    Over the course of this coming century, global electricity use is expected to grow at least five fold and if stringent greenhouse gas emissions controls are in place the growth could be more than seven fold from current levels. Given that the electric power sector represents the second largest anthropogenic use of water and given growing concerns about the nature and extent of future water scarcity driven by population growth and a changing climate, significant concern has been expressed about the electricity sector’s use of water going forward. In this paper, the authors demonstrate that an often overlooked but absolutely critical issue that needs to be taken into account in discussions about the sustainability of the electric sector’s water use going forward is the tremendous turn over in electricity capital stock that will occur over the course of this century; i.e., in the scenarios examined here more than 80% of global electricity production in the year 2050 is from facilities that have not yet been built. The authors show that because of the large scale changes in the global electricity system, the water withdrawal intensity of electricity production is likely to drop precipitously with the result being relatively constant water withdrawals over the course of the century even in the face of the large growth in electricity usage. The ability to cost effectively reduce the water intensity of power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage systems in particular is key to constraining overall global water use.

  13. Twenty-first century vaccinomics innovation systems: capacity building in the global South and the role of Product Development Partnerships (PDPs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huzair, Farah; Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander; Upton, Mary

    2011-09-01

    The availability of sequence information from publicly available complete genomes and data intensive sciences, together with next-generation sequencing technologies offer substantial promise for innovation in vaccinology and global public health in the beginning of the 21st century. This article presents an innovation analysis for the nascent field of vaccinomics by describing one of the major challenges in this endeavor: the need for capacities in "vaccinomics innovation systems" to support the developing countries involved in the creation and testing of new vaccines. In particular, we discuss the need for understanding how institutional frameworks can enhance capacities as intrinsic to a systems approach to health technology development. We focus our attention on the global South, meaning the technically less advanced and developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This focus is timely and appropriate because the challenge for innovation in postgenomics medicine is markedly much greater in these regions where basic infrastructures are often underresourced and new or the anticipated institutional relationships can be fragile. Importantly, we examine the role of Product Development Partnerships (PDPs) as a 21st century organizational innovation that contributes to strengthening fragile institutions and capacity building. For vaccinomics innovation systems to stand the test of time in a context of global public health, local communities, knowledge, and cultures need to be collectively taken into account at all stages in programs for vaccinomics-guided vaccine development and delivery in the global South where the public health needs for rational vaccine development are urgent.

  14. Strategic Intelligence in a globalized world in Latin America: Challenges in the XXI century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Saavedra

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In general, intelligence has been classified as something mysterious due to the historical experiences in Latin America and the general ignorance about the true essence of intelligence as a primary activity of the State. This paper focuses on the analysis of the role of strategic intelligence as a fundamental element of public security and defense policy of a nation in Latin America. The changes occurring at the dawn of this century for the collection and analysis of intelligence are critical. The analysis of power, internet, digital technology, robotics and intelligent computers is responsible for the rapid changes of our history. Strategic Intelligence requires a comprehensive operational reform in five points: 1 Distinction as far as competition of intelligence agencies is concerned. 2 The dependence of the intelligence agencies. 3 Limiting the allocation of responsibility for domestic intelligence. 4 Establishing a coordinating body at the highest level of the State and 5 Effective external controls. These aspects are essential for a strategic intelligence system in line with present and future demands.

  15. Global analysis of solar neutrinos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choubey, Sandhya [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (United Kingdom)

    2003-08-01

    The recent data from SNO are analysed with the global data from the other solar neutrino experiments, first in a model independent way and then assuming two-flavour oscillations. Neutrino oscillations to active flavours can best explain the global data with the LMA solution emerging as the best-fit. However, transitions to 'mixed' states with up to 30% sterile mixture are still allowed at 1{sigma}.

  16. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  17. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  18. Higher Education Administration and Globalization in the 21st Century in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbarifar, Taghi

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the changing scenario and management responsibilities of higher education in the 21st century in India. Of course, for those looking for challenges of management in higher education as a field, the future is not going to be a disappointment. Maybe by the end of the first decade of the 21st century management of higher…

  19. Century-scale patterns and trends of global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on terrestrial carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jia; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Ren, Wei; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Wang, Yuhang; Liu, Yongqiang

    2015-09-01

    Fires have consumed a large amount of terrestrial organic carbon and significantly influenced terrestrial ecosystems and the physical climate system over the past century. Although biomass burning has been widely investigated at a global level in recent decades via satellite observations, less work has been conducted to examine the century-scale changes in global fire regimes and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon balance. In this study, we investigated global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon fluxes from 1901 to 2010 by using a process-based land ecosystem model. Our results show a significant declining trend in global pyrogenic carbon emissions between the early 20th century and the mid-1980s but a significant upward trend between the mid-1980s and the 2000s as a result of more frequent fires in ecosystems with high carbon storage, such as peatlands and tropical forests. Over the past 110 years, average pyrogenic carbon emissions were estimated to be 2.43 Pg C yr-1 (1 Pg = 1015 g), and global average combustion rate (defined as carbon emissions per unit area burned) was 537.85 g C m-2 burned area. Due to the impacts of fires, the net primary productivity and carbon sink of global terrestrial ecosystems were reduced by 4.14 Pg C yr-1 and 0.57 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Our study suggests that special attention should be paid to fire activities in the peatlands and tropical forests in the future. Practical management strategies, such as minimizing forest logging and reducing the rate of cropland expansion in the humid regions, are in need to reduce fire risk and mitigate fire-induced greenhouse gases emissions.

  20. PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchiatti, A. [Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Campus de Cantoblanco, Ctra de Colmenar km 15, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Climent-Font, A. [Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Campus de Cantoblanco, Ctra de Colmenar km 15, 28049 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: acf@unam.es; Enguita, O. [Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Campus de Cantoblanco, Ctra de Colmenar km 15, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, M.T. [Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Campus de Cantoblanco, Ctra de Colmenar km 15, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Finaldi, G. [Museo del Prado, Madrid (Spain); Garrido, C. [Museo del Prado, Madrid (Spain); Matillas, J.M. [Museo del Prado, Madrid (Spain)

    2005-10-15

    The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers.

  1. Data Analysis in the Twenty-First Century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodman, A; Kamath, C; Kumar, V

    2007-08-16

    The 21st Century is characterized by complex multidisciplinary problems accompanied by massive datasets. 'We are drowning in data, but starving for knowledge', as the volumes of many commercial, industrial and scientific datasets have exceeded the terabyte range and are approaching petabytes and beyond. Statistical methodology has long been employed to find useful and usable information in data. More recently, data mining has harnessed the power of computer technology to find useful and usable patterns in such massive datasets. Although several data mining journals have joined the established statistical journals, no single journal provides an integrated treatment of statistical analysis methodology and data mining technology, particularly when applied to the solution of practical problems. This absence and the needs expressed above motivated the inauguration of John Wiley's new Journal on Statistical Analysis and Data Mining. The goals of this interdisciplinary journal are to encourage collaborations across disciplines, communication of data mining and statistical techniques to both novices and experts involved in the analysis of data from practical problems, and a principled and productive evaluation of analyses and solutions. The journal specifically encourages submission of works that have statistical rigor in the analysis of data, incorporate the most appropriate algorithms from data mining, and address the needs of applications. Applying data mining algorithms to practical problems is not sufficient, because we need to ensure that the results have a sound statistical basis, lest any decision based on these results lead to a catastrophe. Even data mining algorithms founded on sound statistical analysis are not sufficient, if they cannot solve a practical problem. Finally, employing a statistical analysis on a practical problem is not sufficient, unless it scales up to massive datasets. Statistical analysis and data mining are actually two sides

  2. A generalized preimage theorem in global analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The concept of locally fine point and generalized regular valueof a C1 map between Banach spaces were carried over C1 map between Banach manifolds. Hence the preimage theorem, a principle constructing Banach manifolds in global analysis, is generalized.

  3. The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century - A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Richard Kenyon

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance.1 A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (UK and Zimbabwe. The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2 National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3 Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990-1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence. WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables.In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3-5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990-1999 and 2008 than in the other world

  4. SILAC for global phosphoproteomic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimienta, Genaro; Chaerkady, Raghothama; Pandey, Akhilesh

    2009-01-01

    Establishing the phosphorylation pattern of proteins in a comprehensive fashion is an important goal of a majority of cell signaling projects. Phosphoproteomic strategies should be designed in such a manner as to identify sites of phosphorylation as well as to provide quantitative information about the extent of phosphorylation at the sites. In this chapter, we describe an experimental strategy that outlines such an approach using stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) coupled to LC-MS/MS. We highlight the importance of quantitative strategies in signal transduction as a platform for a systematic and global elucidation of biological processes.

  5. Global Analysis of Minimal Surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Dierkes, Ulrich; Tromba, Anthony J

    2010-01-01

    Many properties of minimal surfaces are of a global nature, and this is already true for the results treated in the first two volumes of the treatise. Part I of the present book can be viewed as an extension of these results. For instance, the first two chapters deal with existence, regularity and uniqueness theorems for minimal surfaces with partially free boundaries. Here one of the main features is the possibility of 'edge-crawling' along free parts of the boundary. The third chapter deals with a priori estimates for minimal surfaces in higher dimensions and for minimizers of singular integ

  6. Global Analysis of Flexible Risers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banke, Lars

    1996-01-01

    and thus resists the loading from the environment in a more suitable way.A flexible pipe is a composite structure, built up of several layers each having a specific function. Due to the flexibility, the response of the pipe in wave induced motions are governed by a complex hydroelastic set of differential...... parameters.The idea is to divide the riser system of riser and end fitting system into a global system including the riser and a local system of the bending stiffener and the end fitting. The forces at top of the riser shall be used as input for the design of the local system.This report introduces a non...

  7. Social Justice and the Global Economy: New Challenges for Social Work in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polack, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    The globalization of the economy creates new challenges for social work in the arenas of social and economic justice. This article outlines social justice issues related to the debt crisis of the Global South and sweatshops. A presentation of colonial precursors is followed by a detailed examination of these global institutions with an emphasis on…

  8. Border Crossing in Contemporary Brazilian Culture: Global Perspectives from the Twenty-First Century Literary Scene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cimara Valim de Melo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper investigates the process of internationalisation of Brazilian literature in the twenty-first century from the perspective of the publishing market. For this, we analyse how Brazil has responded to globalisation and what effects of cultural globalisation can be seen in the Brazilian literary scene, focusing on the novel. Observing the movement of the novelists throughout the globe, the reception of Brazilian literature in the United Kingdom and the relations between art and the literary market in Brazil, we intend to provoke some reflections on Brazilian cultural history in the light of the twenty-first century.

  9. Social justice and the global economy: new challenges for social work in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polack, Robert J

    2004-04-01

    The globalization of the economy creates new challenges for social work in the arenas of social and economic justice. This article outlines social justice issues related to the debt crisis of the Global South and sweatshops. A presentation of colonial precursors is followed by a detailed examination of these global institutions with an emphasis on the vulnerability, disempowered status, and exploitation of poor people of the Global South. Connections with global inequities in wealth, income, and the distribution of resources are made explicit. The article explores domestic social justice problems as possible points of connection with these issues. Finally, the authors give recommendations for social work education, advocacy, and activism.

  10. PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchiatti, A.; Climent-Font, A.; Enguita, O.; Fernandez-Jimenez, M. T.; Finaldi, G.; Garrido, C.; Matillas, J. M.

    2005-10-01

    The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Análisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers.

  11. Multiple Intelligences: The Most Effective Platform for Global 21st Century Educational and Instructional Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, Donovan A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) as the most viable and effective platform for 21st century educational and instructional methodologies based on the understanding of the value of diversity in today's classrooms and educational institutions, the unique qualities and characteristics of individual learners, the…

  12. The Meaning of the Global City: Jacques Ellul's Continued Relevance to 21st-Century Urbanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toly, Noah

    2012-01-01

    Jacques Ellul's book, "The Meaning of the City," widely recognized as one of the most important twentieth century theological reflections on the city, was also one of his most controversial scholarly contributions. Many urbanists interpreted the book as demeaning the city and diminishing the importance of urban policy, planning, design,…

  13. Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X. L.; Ren, L. L.; Tong, R.; Liu, Y.; Cheng, X. R.; Jiang, S. H.; Yuan, F.

    2015-06-01

    Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

  14. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET: ANALYSIS AND PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana COLESNICOVA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the situation on the global financial market is analyzed in the paper. The actuality of this research proceeded from the reality facing the entire global financial system. The purpose of this work is to research the situation on the global financial market based on the complex analysis of the sector. In the process of developing of this work were used the following methods: comparative analysis, synthesis, logical analysis. The results from the well-known companies which provided each year the analysis and ratings between the high net worth individuals wealth levels and growth by world regions, the most successfully International Financial Centres, leading wealth managers, wealth management innovators, Private Banks of the year, Private Bankers of the year etc. are analyzed in the paper.

  15. [Bibliometry of biological systematics in Latin America during the twentieth century in three global databases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michán, Layla; Llorente-Bousquets, Jorge

    2010-06-01

    We present a review of the biological systematic research in Latin America during the twentieth century, applying a bibliometric analysis to the information contained in international databases with the largest number of biological records: Biosis (since 1969), CAB (since 1910) and Science Citation Index (since 1900), to recognize certain patterns and trends regarding the document production. We obtained 19079 documents and 1387 journals for Biosis, 14326 and 2537 for CAB, 3257 and 1636 for SCI. Of the documents, 54.6% related to new species, 15.3% dealt with morphology, 14.9% keys, 12.5% descriptions, 10.6% cases of synonymies, 6% new genera, 4.9% new geographical records, 23.6% geographical distribution, 4.2% redescriptions, and 3.6% with new nomenclatural combinations. The regions mentioned were South America with 11.9%, Central America with 4% and America (all) with 2.56%. Nineteen Latin American countries appear, whereas outside this region we found the United States of America with 12.6% of representation and Canada with 3%. Animals (65.6%) were the most studied taxa, which was 1.7 times higher than what was published for plants (37%), 11 times higher than fungi (6%) and nearly 30 times higher than microorganisms (2.3%). Out of the 155 journals that produced 66% of the papers, 76.5% were better represented in Biosis, 21.4% in CAB and 2% in SCI. Twenty-nine journals published 33% of the articles, the maximum number of records obtained was 69% for Biosis, CAB 24% and 6.9% for SCI, three (10.3%) are in biology, 11 (37.9%) in botany, 13 (44.8%) zoology, and two (6.9%) paleontology; eight of these journals (27.5%) were published in Latin America and twenty were indexed in the Science Citation Index. In the last two years more journals of the region that publish on taxonomy have been indexed, but their impact factor is still low. However, the impact factor of a number of Latin American journals that published biodiversity increased with time. Countries that are

  16. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prudhomme, C.; Giuntoli, L.; Robinson, E.L.; Clark, D.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Dankers, R.; Fekete, B.M.; Franssen, W.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs

  17. Bundled Hybrid Offset Riser Global Strength Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William C.Webster; Zhuang Kang; Wenzhou Liang; Youwei Kang; Liping Sun

    2011-01-01

    Bundled hybrid offset riser(BHOR)global strength analysis,which is more complex than single line offset riser global strength analysis,was carried out in this paper.At first,the equivalent theory is used to deal with BHOR,and then its global strength in manifold cases was analyzed,along with the use of a three-dimensional nonlinear time domain finite element program.So the max bending stress,max circumferential stress,and max axial stress in the BHOR bundle main section(BMS)were obtained,and the values of these three stresses in each riser were obtained through the "stress distribution method".Finally,the Max Von Mises stress in each riser was given and a check was made whether or not they met the demand.This paper provides a reference for strength analysis of the bundled hybrid offset riser and some other bundled pipelines.

  18. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA ZhuGuo; FU CongBin

    2007-01-01

    The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951 -2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed.The results indicate that the SWl variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia,Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite increases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWl in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

  19. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

  20. A global DGLAP analysis of nuclear PDFs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskola, K. J.; Kolhinen, V. J.; Paukkunen, H.; Salgado, C. A.

    2008-05-01

    In this talk, we shortly report results from our recent global DGLAP analysis of nuclear parton distributions. This is an extension of our former EKS98-analysis improved with an automated χ2 minimization procedure and uncertainty estimates. Although our new analysis show no significant deviation from EKS98, a sign of a significantly stronger gluon shadowing could be seen in the RHIC BRAHMS data.

  1. EDXRF analysis of books from 18 and 19 centuries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Marcelo O., E-mail: marcelocefetrj@gmail.com [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET), Nova Iguacu, RJ (Brazil); Calza, Cristiane; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu, E-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Freitas, Renato P., E-mail: renato.freitas@ifrj.edu.br [Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Paracambi, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work reports the analysis of the elemental composition of paper employed in books from 18 and 19 centuries and also the characterization of pigments used to decorate its edges by means of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). The measurements were carried out with a portable system developed at the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), consisting of an Oxford TF3005 X-ray tube (with W anode) and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. The angle between the X-ray tube and the detector window is 60°, the source-sample and the detector-sample distances are 4 cm. Several spectra were obtained, working at 25 kV and 100 μA, with an acquisition time of 300 seconds and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The results identified the elemental composition of the paper used in the books and the use of the following pigments to decorate its edges: chromium yellow (PbCrO4), barium yellow (BaCrO{sub 4}), chromium oxide (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}) or viridian (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}.H{sub 2}O), vermilion (HgS) and Prussian blue (Fe{sub 4}[Fe(CN){sub 6}]{sub 3}.14-16H{sub 2}O). These results revealed the presence of highly toxic elements/compounds - like lead, mercury and chromates - which were used in the manufacture of ancient pigments. This fact evidences that restorers, conservators and researchers who work directly with these kind of compounds need to take adequate safety measures and use personal protective equipment. (author)

  2. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M.C.; Potapov, P.V.; Moore, R.; Hancher, M.; Turubanova, S.A.; Tyukavina, A.; Thau, D.; Stehman, S.V.; Goetz, S.J.; Loveland, T.R.; Kommareddy, A.; Egorov, A.; Chini, L.; Justice, C.O.; Townshend, J.R.G.

    2013-01-01

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  3. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

    2013-11-15

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  4. Analysis and Outlook of Global Rare Earth Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Jiaqi

    2008-01-01

    @@ When enterd into 21st century,global rare earth market exhibits pleasing situation in recent years,profitig from fast development of global economy.China represented nearly 60% of global rare earth consumption in 2007.Rare earth consumtion in five advanced materisls including permanent magnets,polishing powder,hydrogen storage materisls,fluorescent materials and auto catalysts accounted for 60% of the tutal consumption.

  5. Global nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century: shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-03-01

    In addition to enhancing agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically alters global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedback to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system and land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use oversimplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long periods. In this study, we therefore develop global time series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in agricultural lands, matched with HYDE 3.2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude-longitude during 1961-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates on per unit cropland area increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961 when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) surveys of country-level fertilizer input became available. Considering cropland expansion, the increase in total fertilizer consumption is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer application shifted from the US and western Europe in the 1960s to eastern Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input shows a similar pattern with an additional current hotspot in Brazil. We found a global increase in fertilizer N / P ratio by 0.8 g N g-1 P per decade (p doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.863323.

  6. THE DISPUTE BETWEEN POLITICAL THEOLOGY AND THE POLITICS OF THEOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ON THE MEANINGS OF THE POSTMODERN GLOBALIZING AND INDIVIDUALISTIC SOCIETY AND THE CHRISTIAN PERSONALIST GLOBALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian MANOLACHE

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Upon the dawn of postmodernity, in the twenty-first century, we witness the emergence of a new way of thinking and of new forms of culture and life, under the ideology of globalism, whose dominance is given by the practicality and utility related to civilization, and under globality, which is the cultural aspect of globalization, pertaining to the field of culture. The two dimensions of globalization and globality, civilizational and cultural, will (requestion the principle relationship between Christianity and the new postmodern globalizing utopia, requiring to (reconsider the sense and presence of Christianity within the world, and the appropriate sociological figure of the Church, within the new reality of global and globalized humanity, in the postmodern public space. This paper deals with this ideology - globalism and the cultural manifestation of globality, and with the Orthodox answer to the new challenge of individualism and postmodern globalizing (neocollectivism.

  7. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Douglas, D.C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, M.C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, J.; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  8. Exploring the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemistry in global rivers during the twentieth century (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwman, L.; Beusen, A.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2013-12-01

    Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by soils, groundwater, riparian zones, floodplains, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. This paper analyzes the global changes in nutrient biogeochemical processes and retention in rivers during the past century (1900-2000); this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities including agriculture that have resulted in major changes in land use, nutrient use in agriculture, wastewater flows and human interventions in the hydrology (1). We use the hydrological PCR-GLOBWB model (2) for the period 1900-2000, including climate variability and the history of dam construction and land use conversion. Global agricultural and natural N and P soil budgets for the period 1900-2000 are the starting point to simulate nutrient flows from the soil via surface runoff and leaching through the groundwater system and riparian zones. In-stream processes are described with the nutrient spiraling concept. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal in harvested crops) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2013;368(20130112). 2. Van Beek LPH, Wada Y, Bierkens MFP. Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability. Water Resour Res. 2011;47(7):W07517.

  9. The Global Positioning System and Education in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikle, Thomas A.

    2000-01-01

    Students should have an understanding of basic Global Positioning System (GPS) principles as well as an awareness of how the technology will impact society in the future. Provides a brief overview of the evolution, principles, and applications of GPS together with suggested activities. (Contains 25 references.) (Author/WRM)

  10. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Lanen, Van H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that consi

  11. Educating the Business Graduate of the 21st Century: Communication for a Globalized World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briguglio, Carmela

    2007-01-01

    This article examines current business communication education in higher education, particularly in regard to English as a global language. The discussion is situated at the intersection of business communication, intercultural communication, and internationalization of higher education, and the article draws on research from all three fields. The…

  12. ECONOMIC ASPECTS REGARDING THE GLOBAL DIMENSION OF POVERTY IN THE XXI CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL-BOGDAN ZAMFIR

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we proposed to investigate the spread of poverty phenomenon on the global scale. Also we examined the causes and the efects of unequal distribution of global wealth, emphasing the impact of economic globalization on the deepening of poverty at the international comunity level. In the contemporary context of economic globalization the poverty is a scourge of the international community, that marks a dangerous gap between the many poor and the few rich. On the other hand, the poverty can be rightly considered the deprivation of population or certain population groups of welfare. In generally, for the common man, poverty means hunger, misery and diseases. Also, the poverty is an economical-legal phenomenon. The economic component of poverty consist in the deficiency of resources to ensure a decent standard of living and the access to basic services (health, education etc., while the legal dimension is reflected in the reduced possibility of a person or population groups to benefit from the civil rights and other fundamental rights, as well as the right to lead way of life which he desires or values.

  13. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  14. From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Byerlee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutional contexts and political economy. In the current period of globalization, as land use changes associated with tropical commodities have accelerated, land issues are now at center stage in the global discourse. However, efforts to protect forests and the rights of local communities and indigenous groups continue to be ad hoc and codification of minimum standards and their implementation remains a work in progress. Given a widespread failure of state directed policies and institutions to curb deforestation and protect land rights, the private sector, with the exception of the rubber industry, is emphasizing voluntary standards to certify sustainability of their products. This is an important step but expectations that they will effectively address concerns about the impact of tropical commodities expansion might be too high, given their voluntary nature, demand constraints, and the challenge of including smallholders. It is also doubtful that private standards can more than partially compensate for long standing weaknesses in land governance and institutions on the forest frontier.

  15. A century-long simulation of terrestrial water storage change and its contribution to global sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bosmans, Joyce; de Graaf, Inge; Sutandjaja, Edwin; Schmitz, Oliver; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.

    2016-04-01

    Although limited, the contribution of terrestrial water storage (TWS) change to sea-level change is significant enough to be taken into account in sea-level attribution studies. Thus, after being absent in a previous report, TWS was again one of the components taken into account in IPCC assessment report 5. TWS can be effectively observed by analysing gravity anomalies from the GRACE mission or by observing individual components with lidar (surface water level), geodetic surveys (groundwater) and space borne passive and active microwave sensors (soil moisture, snow water equivalent). However, these observation only yield time series of limited length making it difficult to estimate long term trends in TWS as multi-decadal variations. We present the results of a century-long (1900-2014) simulation of TWS change with PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 that is fully coupled with a global two-layer groundwater model. In this simulation we include the effects of land cover change, the building of reservoirs and human water use (abstraction from surface and groundwater, water consumption and return flows). The effects of wetland drainage and siltation of reservoirs is corrected for afterwards. We validate TWS estimates for the period 2003-2010 with GRACE estimates. Trends of TWS and its effects on sea-level change are estimated and the main contributions (humans and climate)identified. Similarly, we examine multi-year variability in TWS and sea-level change in relation to climate variability. Our results show a significant positive trend in TWS due to a trend in precipitation over the first half of the 20th century. In the second part of the 20th century trends in TWS due to dam impoundment and groundwater depletion are evident. Finally, large anomalies, in the order of 5 cm sea-level equivalent, can be seen as a result of interannual climate variability.

  16. Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

    2016-04-01

    The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

  17. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period, 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  18. Beta Gyres in Global Analysis Fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun-Hee KIM; H.Joe KWON; R.L.ELSBERRY

    2009-01-01

    A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre,which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current.Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP,and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study.The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our analyses is in good agreement with the theoretical structure,with a cyclonic circulation to the southwest of the TC center,an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast,and a ventilation flow directed northwestward near the center.The circulation of the beta gyre is strongest at the 850-hPa level where the cyclonically swirling primary circulation is strongest,and decreases with height,in a pyramid shape similar to the primary circulation.The individual structure of the beta gyre is case- and model-dependent.At a certain analysis time,one model may clearly reveal a well-defined beta gyre,but the other models may not.Within one model,the beta gyre may be well defined at some analysis times,but not at other times.The structure of the beta gyre in the analysis field is determined by the nature of the vortex initialization scheme and the model behavior during the 6-h forecast in the operational data assimilation cycle.

  19. Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat of the 21st Century: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mir M. Ali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The tall building is the most dominating symbol of the cities and a human-made marvel that defies gravity by reaching to the clouds. It embodies unrelenting human aspirations to build even higher. It conjures a number of valid questions in our minds. The foremost and fundamental question that is often asked: Why tall buildings? This review paper seeks to answer the question by laying out arguments against and for tall buildings. Then, it provides a brief account of the historic and recent developments of tall buildings including their status during the current economic recession. The paper argues that as cities continue to expand horizontally, to safeguard against their reaching an eventual breaking point, the tall building as a building type is a possible solution by way of conquering vertical space through agglomeration and densification. Case studies of some recently built tall buildings are discussed to illustrate the nature of tall building development in their respective cities. The paper attempts to dispel any discernment about tall buildings as mere pieces of art and architecture by emphasizing their truly speculative, technological, sustainable, and evolving nature. It concludes by projecting a vision of tall buildings and their integration into the cities of the 21st century.

  20. Conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos

    2001-01-01

    There has been much recent progress in global optimization algo­ rithms for nonconvex continuous and discrete problems from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Convex analysis plays a fun­ damental role in the analysis and development of global optimization algorithms. This is due essentially to the fact that virtually all noncon­ vex optimization problems can be described using differences of convex functions and differences of convex sets. A conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization was held during June 5 -9, 2000 at Pythagorion, Samos, Greece. The conference was honoring the memory of C. Caratheodory (1873-1950) and was en­ dorsed by the Mathematical Programming Society (MPS) and by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Activity Group in Optimization. The conference was sponsored by the European Union (through the EPEAEK program), the Department of Mathematics of the Aegean University and the Center for Applied Optimization of the University of Florida, by th...

  1. Progress in the NNPDF global analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Deans, Christopher S

    2013-01-01

    We report on recent progress in the NNPDF framework of global PDF analysis. The NNPDF2.3 set is the first and only available PDF set with includes LHC data. A recent benchmark comparison of NNPDF2.3 and all other modern NNLO PDF sets with LHC data was performed. We have also studied theoretical uncertainties due to heavy quark renormalization schemes, higher twists and deuterium corrections in PDFs. Finally, we report on the release of positive definite PDF sets, based on the NNPDF2.3 analysis, specially suited for use in Monte Carlo event generators.

  2. An Assessment of the Scientific Basis Behind Global Environmental Concerns in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hanwant B.; Hipskind, R. Stephen (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The notion that human activities may endanger the earth's environment has emerged as a leading societal concern in the post industrial era. Under the ever increasing pressures of population growth and industrialization, the problems of local air pollution have now become matters of both local and global concern. Smog, toxic chemicals, acid rain, ozone depletion, and climate change have become household words and an intense public policy debate about the cost and benefits of environmental protection continues. There is a growing realization that the consequences of air pollution can be felt in unpredictable ways in near and far away places. Unpopulated regions of the world such as the arctic now suffer from arctic haze and ozone depletions are the largest in the Antarctic stratosphere. In the last4ol three decades many countries have instituted ambient air quality standards designed to mitigate problems of health and welfare associated with the release of chemicals. Global agreements to prevent the depletion of ozone layer and to slow down climatic warming are being actively debated and formulated. In parallel there has been an intense exploration of the science of air pollution all over the world. The scientific basis behind environmental concerns is imperfect and is central to this debate. I will review our current scientific understanding of some of the major environmental concerns. An assessment of the forthcoming efforts to put this science on a more solid footing will be provided.

  3. Research misconduct: a grand global challenge for the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farthing, Michael J G

    2014-03-01

    Research misconduct is now acknowledged to be an important global issue for both researchers and the wider community. Guidance on the responsible conduct of research is now widespread, but many are still concerned by the apparent rising tide of serious cases of research misconduct, and perhaps the more worrying widespread presence of questionable research practices. I would suggest that guidance and training, while essential, are not sufficient. Additional interventions, including enhanced monitoring of research outputs and random audit using the available technology should be considered, as should the desirability of having a register of "licensed researchers." In addition, I would support a culture change in the research community in which researchers are encouraged to admit their mistakes; this should be accompanied by a spirit of forgiveness and programmed rehabilitation for the individual concerned. For multiple "premier league" offenders who are reluctant to face their misdemeanors, it is difficult to see how they could continue in the role of a researcher, and their "registration" should be revoked. Research is increasingly undertaken by researchers who cross national boundaries. The globalization of research demands greater collaboration between organizations that are responsible for ensuring standards of research integrity; the need for international standards and guidance has never been greater.

  4. Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Beaumont

    Full Text Available The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5. The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

  5. Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumont, Linda J; Duursma, Daisy

    2012-01-01

    The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA) is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st) century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

  6. Analysis of XXI Century Disasters in the National Geophysical Data Center Historical Natural Hazard Event Databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; McCullough, H. L.

    2011-12-01

    The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) maintains a global historical event database of tsunamis, significant earthquakes, and significant volcanic eruptions. The database includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. Event date, time, location, magnitude of the phenomenon, and socio-economic information are included in the database. Analysis of the NGDC event database reveals that the 21st century began with earthquakes in Gujarat, India (magnitude 7.7, 2001) and Bam, Iran (magnitude 6.6, 2003) that killed over 20,000 and 31,000 people, respectively. These numbers were dwarfed by the numbers of earthquake deaths in Pakistan (magnitude 7.6, 2005-86,000 deaths), Wenchuan, China (magnitude 7.9, 2008-87,652 deaths), and Haiti (magnitude 7.0, 2010-222,000 deaths). The Haiti event also ranks among the top ten most fatal earthquakes. The 21st century has observed the most fatal tsunami in recorded history-the 2004 magnitude 9.1 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that caused over 227,000 deaths and 10 billion damage in 14 countries. Six years later, the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami, although not the most fatal (15,000 deaths and 5,000 missing), could cost Japan's government in excess of 300 billion-the most expensive tsunami in history. Volcanic eruptions can cause disruptions and economic impact to the airline industry, but due to their remote locations, fatalities and direct economic effects are uncommon. Despite this fact, the second most expensive eruption in recorded history occurred in the 21st century-the 2010 Merapi, Indonesia volcanic eruption that resulted in 324 deaths, 427 injuries, and $600 million in damage. NGDC integrates all natural hazard event datasets into one search interface. Users can find fatal tsunamis generated by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. The user can then link to information about the related runup

  7. Medical Cosmopolitanism in Global Dubai: A Twenty-first-century Transnational Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) Depot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inhorn, Marcia C

    2017-03-01

    Dubai-one of the seven United Arab Emirates and the Middle East's only "global city"-is gaining a reputation as a transnational medical tourism hub. Characterized by its "medical cosmopolitanism," Dubai is now attracting medical travelers from around the world, some of whom are seeking assisted conception. Dubai is fast becoming known as a new transnational "reprohub" for intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), the variant of in vitro fertilization designed to overcome male infertility. Based on ethnographic research conducted in one of the country's most cosmopolitan clinics, this article explores the ICSI treatment quests of infertile men coming to Dubai from scores of other nations. The case of an infertile British-Moroccan man is highlighted to demonstrate why ICSI is a particularly compelling "masculine hope technology" for infertile Muslim men. Thus, Muslim men who face barriers to ICSI access in their home countries may become "reprotravelers" to Dubai, an emergent ICSI depot.

  8. Japanese Higher Education Institutions in the 21st Century: The Challenge of Globalization and Internationalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AOKI, Kumiko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Higher education institutions in Japan are facing unprecedented challenges today due to the following three factors:the decrease in the size of college age cohorts in the coming years; heightened expectations in the modes of instructional delivery through the advances of information and communication technologies (ICT; global competition for college students worldwide especially from English-speaking countries. This paper examines internationalization of higher education in Japan in terms of:foreign faculty members in Japan, foreign tertiary students in Japan, Japanese students studying abroad, branch campuses of foreign colleges and universities in Japan, off-shore campuses of Japanese colleges and universities, and cross-border higher education through e-learning.

  9. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-11-01

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade-1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade-1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model--having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models--we estimate that the warming slowdown (trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

  10. Globalization and the Cuban Revolution in the Twenty-First Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Lambie

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article questions the assumption that Cuba’s reform process must eventually make concessions to, and perhaps eventually join, the wider global world system dominated by neo-liberal economics and democracy as defined by the advocates of this world order. To undertake this task it is necessary to explain globalization and distinguish it from the preceding post-war period and then seek to understand the consequences of its ascendency, especially its failure to produce a sustainable model of development. In this context Cuba’s socialist experiment will be considered as an alternative, both in the form of its performance in social provision and its ideology of community above that of the individual. While these strengths may be attractive to those forces in the world that wish to resist globalization and build something new, Cuba as a single country example is not viable. Consequently these achievements can only become part of a transformative force if they are integrated with already existing popular resistance to the current neo-liberal order. Finally, it is argued this symbiosis is taking place in Latin America where Cuba is deeply involved with new social movements and progressive governments.Resumen: La globalización y la revolución cubana en el siglo XXIEn este artículo se cuestiona la aserción de que el proceso de reformas en Cuba debe hacer concesiones, y quizás, finalmente, incorporarse al sistema global dominado por la economía neoliberal y la democracia tal como son definidas por los defensores de este orden mundial. Para emprender esta labor, es necesario explicar la globalización y distinguirla del período precedente de posguerra y luego tratar de entender las consecuencias de su influencia, especialmente en su incapacidad de producir un modelo de desarrollo sustentable. En este contexto, el experimento socialista de Cuba será considerado como una alternativa, tanto en cuanto a sus resultados en cuanto a la previsi

  11. Global water crisis: the major issue of the 21st century, a growing and explosive problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeijs, H L; Van Berkel, M J

    1995-07-01

    The authors explore what is considered to be the emerging issue of the 21st century, shortages of water. It is expected that the Netherlands, which is entirely dependent on water from other countries, will be in an extremely vulnerable position. The quantity of fresh water is limited. Contamination of water reduces water quality and availability. Many World Bank projects focus on management of the water supply for sanitation, irrigation, hydroelectric power, and construction of dikes in order to prevent flooding. The World Bank concludes that everyone worldwide must acknowledge that fresh water is a scarce natural resource. The Action Plan, Agenda 21, of the UN Rio Conference emphasized the importance of the widespread shortage, gradual destruction, and increased pollution of fresh water reserves. The four major world problems with fresh water are 1) shortages of renewable supplies, 2) unequal distribution of supplies, 3) problems of water quality and health, and 4) disastrous effects of unrestrained construction of dams and reservoirs. Only 2.5% of the total amount of water on earth is fresh water, of which 69.4% is in the form of ice, snow, or permafrost and most of the remainder is ground water. Fresh water in lakes and rivers is only about 1% of fresh water available on earth. Most of the precipitation that falls on land every year is lost through evaporation. 45,000 sq. km is the absolute maximum available annually. Distribution of water among industry, agriculture, and households varies by country. Arid regions constitute about 33% of Europe, 60% of Asia, 85% of Africa, and most of Australia and western North America. 14% of countries are at or under the poverty line of water availability, 37% have dangerously dry conditions, 14% have average levels, and 35% have ample supplies. Examples of water management are given for the Amazon River, the Euphrates and Tigris, the Aral Sea, and the Rhine River Basin. It is estimated that the world supply of fresh water

  12. Global stability analysis of axisymmetric boundary layers

    CERN Document Server

    Vinod, N

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the linear global stability analysis of the incompressible axisymmetric boundary layer on a circular cylinder. The base flow is parallel to the axis of the cylinder at inlet. The pressure gradient is zero in the streamwise direction. The base flow velocity profile is fully non-parallel and non-similar in nature. The boundary layer grows continuously in the spatial directions. Linearized Navier-Stokes(LNS) equations are derived for the disturbance flow quantities in the cylindrical polar coordinates. The LNS equations along with homogeneous boundary conditions forms a generalized eigenvalues problem. Since the base flow is axisymmetric, the disturbances are periodic in azimuthal direction. Chebyshev spectral collocation method and Arnoldi's iterative algorithm is used for the solution of the general eigenvalues problem. The global temporal modes are computed for the range of Reynolds numbers and different azimuthal wave numbers. The largest imaginary part of the computed eigenmodes are nega...

  13. Unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal medicine: global disaster response in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Russell J; Quintana, Leonidas M

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations has recognized the devastating consequences of "unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal" disasters-at least US $2 trillion in economic damage and more than 1.3 million lives lost from natural disasters in the last two decades alone. In many disasters (both natural and man-made) hundreds-and in major earthquakes, thousands-of lives are lost in the first days following the event because of the lack of medical/surgical facilities to treat those with potentially survivable injuries. Disasters disrupt and destroy not only medical facilities in the disaster zone but also infrastructure (roads, airports, electricity) and potentially local healthcare personnel as well. To minimize morbidity and mortality from disasters, medical treatment must begin immediately, within minutes ideally, but certainly within 24 h (not the days to weeks currently seen in medical response to disasters). This requires that all resources-medical equipment and support, and healthcare personnel-be portable and readily available; transport to the disaster site will usually require helicopters, as military medical response teams in developed countries have demonstrated. Some of the resources available and in development for immediate medical response for disasters-from portable CT scanners to telesurgical capabilities-are described. For immediate deployment, these resources-medical equipment and personnel-must be ready for deployment on a moment's notice and not require administrative approvals or bureaucratic authorizations from numerous national and international agencies, as is presently the case. Following the "trauma center/stroke center" model, disaster response incorporating "disaster response centers" would be seamlessly integrated into the ongoing daily healthcare delivery systems worldwide, from medical education and specialty training (resident/registrar) to acute and subacute intensive care to long-term rehabilitation. The benefits of such a global disaster

  14. Science Education and the Challenges Facing Its Integration into the 21st Century School System in a Globalized World: A Case of Igbo Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeudu, F. O.; Nkokelonye, C. U.; Ezeudu, S. A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a study of historical foundations of science education in Igboland, its nature and scope as well as the challenges facing its integration into the 21st century school system in a globalized world. The authors found that there were many scientific activities in Igbo culture, but many problems hinder their integration into the basic…

  15. Rethinking Teacher Education: Synchronizing Eastern and Western Views of Teaching and Learning to Promote 21st Century Skills and Global Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Judith; Hu, Ran

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to share findings with educators across disciplines of how to incorporate an eastern and western blended philosophy of teaching and learning to promote 21st century skills and global perspectives. Drawing from a previous self-study of their views of teaching and learning between Chinese and American cultures, the two…

  16. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations - Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

  17. Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21(st) Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubler, Duane J

    2011-12-01

    Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world's population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

  18. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W

    2016-11-30

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade(-1)) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade(-1)). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model-having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models-we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade(-1) trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

  19. The global analysis of DEER data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Suzanne; Beth, Albert H; Hustedt, Eric J

    2012-05-01

    Double Electron-Electron Resonance (DEER) has emerged as a powerful technique for measuring long range distances and distance distributions between paramagnetic centers in biomolecules. This information can then be used to characterize functionally relevant structural and dynamic properties of biological molecules and their macromolecular assemblies. Approaches have been developed for analyzing experimental data from standard four-pulse DEER experiments to extract distance distributions. However, these methods typically use an a priori baseline correction to account for background signals. In the current work an approach is described for direct fitting of the DEER signal using a model for the distance distribution which permits a rigorous error analysis of the fitting parameters. Moreover, this approach does not require a priori background correction of the experimental data and can take into account excluded volume effects on the background signal when necessary. The global analysis of multiple DEER data sets is also demonstrated. Global analysis has the potential to provide new capabilities for extracting distance distributions and additional structural parameters in a wide range of studies.

  20. Sun-genesis 21: Empowering the global village in the digital age and the solar century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamasaki, Les [Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2000-07-01

    Sun-Genesis 21 is a global economic development plan for creating an environmentally sustainable future in the developing world. Its premise is that the solution to the survival of civil stability and democracy in developing countries in the Information Age is to slow the migration of the rural poor into the urban centers as well as dispersing some of the residents of the already impacted cities into new agro-communities. This strategy envisions empowering the 25 million coffee farmers located in the poorest countries in the world to control their own economic destiny by marketing their products directly to the international marketplace over the World Wide Web (Coffee Belt Plan 2020). The plan also envisions creating a network of new agricultural communities called World Farm Solar Telecommunities that utilizes telecommunications and environmental technologies to disperse the impacted urban population. Proven profitable commodities such as industrial hemp, aloe vera, and aquacultural farming will be the economic foundation of these agro-communities. The goal is to empower rural agro-entrepreneurs to become an economic engine for job creation and be able to afford the Coffee Solar Televillages that include distant learning centers, telemedicine clinics, food processing centers, e-commerce centers, and solar crop-drying centers. The Genesis 21 program includes creative financing strategies to deal with these massive problems of poverty and hunger through the concept of trade, not aid, including the use of barter in a proposed Green Technology for Green Coffee program. [Spanish] Sun-Genesis 21 es un plan global de desarrollo economico para crear un futuro ambiental sustentable en el mundo en desarrollo. La premisa del plan es que la solucion para la supervivencia de la estabilidad civil y la democracia en paises en desarrollo dentro de la Era de la Informacion es desacelerar la migracion de la gente pobre de las areas rurales hacia los centros urbanos, asi como

  1. A global analysis of neutrino oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fogli, G.L. [Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica “Michelangelo Merlin”, Via Amendola 173, 70126 Bari (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70126 Bari (Italy); Lisi, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70126 Bari (Italy); Marrone, A. [Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica “Michelangelo Merlin”, Via Amendola 173, 70126 Bari (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70126 Bari (Italy); Montanino, D. [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica “Ennio De Giorgi”, Via Arnesano, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Lecce, Via Arnesano, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Palazzo, A. [Cluster of Excellence, Origin and Structure of the Universe, Technische Universität München, Boltzmannstraße 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Rotunno, A.M. [Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica “Michelangelo Merlin”, Via Amendola 173, 70126 Bari (Italy)

    2013-02-15

    We present a global analysis of neutrino oscillation data, including high-precision measurements of the neutrino mixing angle θ{sub 13} at reactor experiments, which have confirmed previous indications in favor of θ{sub 13}>0. Recent data presented at this Conference are also included. We focus on the correlations between θ{sub 13} and the mixing angle θ{sub 23}, as well as between θ{sub 13} and the neutrino CP-violation phase δ. We find interesting indications for θ{sub 23}<π/4 and possible hints for δ∼π, with no significant difference between normal and inverted mass hierarchy.

  2. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  3. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  4. The Development of the Global Gear Machining Technology in the First 10 years of 21st Century Viewed from the Patent Analysis%从专利分析看21世纪头10年全球齿轮加工技术的发展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    庄建华

    2016-01-01

    进入21世纪,国外高端数控齿轮机床达到了高效、高速、高精度、自动化和智能化的高水平。本文通过Questel Orbit国际检索系统的数据库和专利分析平台,使用主题词和分类号对21世纪头10年的专利进行了申请量的分析、专利国家或地区分布的分析、IPC的关联分析、各国家或地区的技术研发对比、重点专利技术分析以及专利申请量排名前列的机构等分析,得出当时的齿轮加工技术领域的主要特点以及掌握该类核心技术的国家和企业。%In the first 10 years of 21st century, high-end CNC gear machines abroad had reached the high level such as high-efficiency, high-speed, high-precision, automation and intelligence. Through Questel Orbit database and patent analysis platform, this paper uses keywords, and classifying number to make patent application number analysis, patent country or region distribution analysis, IPC relating analysis, contrast of country and region technical research and development, technical analysis of the key patents as well as ranking of the patent application units, then obtains the main technical features in the gear machining field, and knows who master the key technologies.

  5. Realism of Global Reanalyses over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean across the 20th and Early 21st Centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to their ability to synthesize a wide variety of meteorological data and "produce data where there are none", nowhere are global atmospheric reanalyses more needed than over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, where long-term records are few and far between. At the same time, because of the reduced observational constraint, nowhere else do reanalyses face more challenges, which can significantly reduce the reliability of their products. Most notably, the transition into the modern satellite era in 1979 greatly affected the skill of the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses and explains why most reanalysis-based investigations of Antarctic climate change have since focused on the post-1979 period. The most recent generation of reanalyses has benefited from advances in numerical weather prediction, data rescue/quality-control and lessons learned from previous projects, all of which have improved their overall quality in the southern polar region. Alongside comprehensive reanalyses, recent data assimilation experiments using only surface or conventional observations have tried to overcome the 1979 "barrier", but other problems have become apparent, including the necessity to specify realistic ocean boundary conditions (sea ice, SST) around Antarctica prior to 1979. The presentation will provide an overview of the skill of recent global reanalyses in high southern latitudes from the 1900s onward. It will discuss how far back in time we can reasonably go and in what areas caution is needed. The datasets covered will include ERA-Interim, CFSR, MERRA, and JRA-55, as well as recent century-long efforts, 20CR and ERA-20C.

  6. Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3°C on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. It is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4-1.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China.

  7. Energy budgets and transports: global evolution and spatial patterns during the twentieth century as estimated in two AMIP-like experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembo, Valerio; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin; Lionello, Piero

    2017-03-01

    This study describes characteristics and evolution of the residual of the Earth energy budget (EB) individual components and the implied meridional transports during the twentieth century. This analysis considers two ensembles of AMIP-like experiments (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) with prescribed evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration (SST-SIC), greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over the entire twentieth century: ERA-20CM and ECHAM5-HAM model simulations. With the latter, additional sensitivity experiments are carried out by constraining either SST-SIC or aerosols to climatological values. The two models provide compatible estimates of the EBs and implied transport absolute values in recent decades. They are not in agreement in terms of global scale evolution: in the 1970s ERA-20CM shows a fast transition from negative to positive EBs at top of atmosphere (TOA) that is not found in ECHAM5-HAM. Climatological SST-SIC sensitivity experiments evidence that the aerosol forcing affects TOA and surface EBs by setting up an inter-hemispheric gradient after 1960. This is also reflected by an increased total transport in the Northern Hemisphere, while decreased in the Southern Hemisphere. ERA-20CM shows no evidence of a similar aerosol forcing. Sensitivity experiments with fixed pre-industrial aerosols show that transient SST are responsible for irregular spatio-temporal anomalies of surface and atmospheric EBs and transports. Surface and atmospheric anomalies oppose each other, and transient SSTs do not influence the EB changes at TOA. Impact of transient SST and GHG forcing on EBs and implied transports are robust across the two models.

  8. Energy budgets and transports: global evolution and spatial patterns during the twentieth century as estimated in two AMIP-like experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembo, Valerio; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin; Lionello, Piero

    2016-05-01

    This study describes characteristics and evolution of the residual of the Earth energy budget (EB) individual components and the implied meridional transports during the twentieth century. This analysis considers two ensembles of AMIP-like experiments (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) with prescribed evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration (SST-SIC), greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over the entire twentieth century: ERA-20CM and ECHAM5-HAM model simulations. With the latter, additional sensitivity experiments are carried out by constraining either SST-SIC or aerosols to climatological values. The two models provide compatible estimates of the EBs and implied transport absolute values in recent decades. They are not in agreement in terms of global scale evolution: in the 1970s ERA-20CM shows a fast transition from negative to positive EBs at top of atmosphere (TOA) that is not found in ECHAM5-HAM. Climatological SST-SIC sensitivity experiments evidence that the aerosol forcing affects TOA and surface EBs by setting up an inter-hemispheric gradient after 1960. This is also reflected by an increased total transport in the Northern Hemisphere, while decreased in the Southern Hemisphere. ERA-20CM shows no evidence of a similar aerosol forcing. Sensitivity experiments with fixed pre-industrial aerosols show that transient SST are responsible for irregular spatio-temporal anomalies of surface and atmospheric EBs and transports. Surface and atmospheric anomalies oppose each other, and transient SSTs do not influence the EB changes at TOA. Impact of transient SST and GHG forcing on EBs and implied transports are robust across the two models.

  9. A century of enzyme kinetic analysis, 1913 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Kenneth A

    2013-09-02

    This review traces the history and logical progression of methods for quantitative analysis of enzyme kinetics from the 1913 Michaelis and Menten paper to the application of modern computational methods today. Following a brief review of methods for fitting steady state kinetic data, modern methods are highlighted for fitting full progress curve kinetics based upon numerical integration of rate equations, including a re-analysis of the original Michaelis-Menten full time course kinetic data. Finally, several illustrations of modern transient state kinetic methods of analysis are shown which enable the elucidation of reactions occurring at the active sites of enzymes in order to relate structure and function.

  10. A Century of Enzyme Kinetic Analysis, 1913 to 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Kenneth A.

    2013-01-01

    This review traces the history and logical progression of methods for quantitative analysis of enzyme kinetics from the 1913 Michaelis and Menten paper to the application of modern computational methods today. Following a brief review of methods for fitting steady state kinetic data, modern methods are highlighted for fitting full progress curve kinetics based upon numerical integration of rate equations, including a re-analysis of the original Michaelis-Menten full time course kinetic data. ...

  11. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification

  12. Electric dipole moments: A global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chupp, Timothy; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael

    2015-03-01

    We perform a global analysis of searches for the permanent electric dipole moments (EDMs) of the neutron, neutral atoms, and molecules in terms of six leptonic, semileptonic, and nonleptonic interactions involving photons, electrons, pions, and nucleons. By translating the results into fundamental charge-conjugation-parity symmetry (CP) violating effective interactions through dimension six involving standard model particles, we obtain rough lower bounds on the scale of beyond the standard model CP-violating interactions ranging from 1.5 TeV for the electron EDM to 1300 TeV for the nuclear spin-independent electron-quark interaction. We show that planned future measurements involving systems or combinations of systems with complementary sensitivities to the low-energy parameters may extend the mass reach by an order of magnitude or more.

  13. Global analysis of posttranslational protein arginylation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine C L Wong

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Posttranslational arginylation is critical for embryogenesis, cardiovascular development, and angiogenesis, but its molecular effects and the identity of proteins arginylated in vivo are largely unknown. Here we report a global analysis of this modification on the protein level and identification of 43 proteins arginylated in vivo on highly specific sites. Our data demonstrate that unlike previously believed, arginylation can occur on any N-terminally exposed residue likely defined by a structural recognition motif on the protein surface, and that it preferentially affects a number of physiological systems, including cytoskeleton and primary metabolic pathways. The results of our study suggest that protein arginylation is a general mechanism for regulation of protein structure and function and outline the potential role of protein arginylation in cell metabolism and embryonic development.

  14. HMI global helioseismology data analysis pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Tim; Schou, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    The HMI global helioseismology data analysis pipeline is based largely on the MDI medium-l program. All of the modules that ran in the SOI Science Support Center have been ported for use in the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) and given greater functionality. Many errors and approximations which are present in the standard MDI pipeline have been corrected and improvements have been added. Scripts have been written to automate the submission of compute jobs to our local cluster; it is now possible to go from dopplergrams to mode parameters with the push of a button. JSOC dataseries have been created to hold all intermediate data products, timeseries, window functions, and mode parameters. Here we discuss the operation of the pipeline, the structure of the data it generates, and access to the same.

  15. GEOPOLITICS - A NEW FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS: GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cătălina PAȘCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Geopolitics born at the end of the 19th century and reborn at the end of the 20th century, from the need to explain certain issues arising out of the general evolution of human society and the growing influence of permanent politico-economic changes on the human consciousness and the entire system of socio-political life and culture. Also, geopolitics gives us the opportunity to reflect on the manifestation and evolution of power relations within a particular historical period, to assess and track changes and trends in the current system of international relations, giving us indicators and analytical methods about the reality of international relations. The relations of competition versus cooperation between international actors have changed gradually in the 21st century; however, development cooperation can provide solutions or opportunities for defining global problems. Globalization creates a new framework in security and international relations also introduced the geo-economics perspectives to assumed new found geopolitical importance at the outset of the twenty-first century.

  16. Analysis of Globalization, the Planet and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsegay, Samson Maekele

    2016-01-01

    Thorough the framework of theories analyzing globalization and education, this paper focuses on the intersection among globalization, the environment and education. This paper critically analyzes how globalization could affect environmental devastation, and explore the role of pedagogies that could foster planetary citizenship by exposing…

  17. Projections of ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, C. A.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Patel, P.; Mundra, A.

    2015-12-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans, potentially having serious consequences for the marine ecosystems. Projections of ocean acidification are primarily determined from prescribed emission pathways within large scale earth system models. Rather than running the cumbersome earth system models, we can use a reduced-form model to quickly emulate the CMIP5 models for projection studies under arbitrary emission pathways and for uncertainty analyses of the marine carbonate system. In this study we highlight the capability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries. Hector is run under historical emissions and a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), comparing its output to observations and CMIP5 models that contain ocean biogeochemical cycles. Ocean acidification changes are already taking place, with significant changes projected to occur over the next 300 years. We project a low latitude (> 55°) surface ocean pH decrease from preindustrial conditions by 0.4 units to 7.77 at 2100, and an additional 0.27 units to 7.50 at 2300. Aragonite saturations decrease by 1.85 units to 2.21 at 2100 and an additional 0.80 units to 1.42 at 2300. Under a high emissions scenario, for every 1 °C of future warming we find a 0.107 unit pH decrease and a 0.438 unit decrease in aragonite saturations. Hector reproduces the global historical trends, and future projections with equivalent rates of change over time compared to observations and CMIP5 models. Hector is a robust tool that can be used for quick ocean acidification projections, accurately emulating large scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

  18. Analyzing the Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-Lemma Facing World Agriculture: Global Land Use in the Coming Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.

    2011-12-01

    The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 3 billion people by 2100. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day, this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets. To compound matters, water, a key input into agricultural production, is rapidly diminishing in availability in large parts of the world and many soils are degrading. In addition, agriculture and forestry are increasingly envisioned as key sectors for climate change mitigation policy. Any serious attempt to reduce land-based emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on the expansion of farming - particularly in the tropics, where most of the agricultural land conversion has come at the expense of forests, either directly, or indirectly via a cascading of land use requirements with crops moving into pasture and pasture into forest. Finally, agriculture and forestry are likely to be the economic sectors whose productivity is most sharply affected by climate change. In light of these challenges facing the global farm and food system, this paper will review the main sources of supply and demand for the world's cropland, and then provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of these forces on global land use over the coming century. The model incorporates forward looking behavior and examines competition between land used for ecosystem services, forestry, food and fuel. Explicit account is taken of emissions associated with both the intensive and extensive margins of agricultural expansion, as well as carbon sequestration and energy combustion. Key findings include: (a) energy prices and environmental policies will be increasingly important drivers of land use

  19. Global analysis of the immune response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Leonardo C.; Dickman, Ronald; Bernardes, Américo T.

    2008-10-01

    The immune system may be seen as a complex system, characterized using tools developed in the study of such systems, for example, surface roughness and its associated Hurst exponent. We analyze densitometric (Panama blot) profiles of immune reactivity, to classify individuals into groups with similar roughness statistics. We focus on a population of individuals living in a region in which malaria endemic, as well as a control group from a disease-free region. Our analysis groups individuals according to the presence, or absence, of malaria symptoms and number of malaria manifestations. Applied to the Panama blot data, our method proves more effective at discriminating between groups than principal-components analysis or super-paramagnetic clustering. Our findings provide evidence that some phenomena observed in the immune system can be only understood from a global point of view. We observe similar tendencies between experimental immune profiles and those of artificial profiles, obtained from an immune network model. The statistical entropy of the experimental profiles is found to exhibit variations similar to those observed in the Hurst exponent.

  20. An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Rupp,

    2016-05-05

    The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

  1. Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the 20th century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Mogollón, José M.; Middelburg, Jack J.

    2016-04-01

    Various human activities - including agriculture, water consumption, river damming, and aquaculture - have intensified over the last century. This has had a major impact on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling in global continental waters. In this study, we use a coupled nutrient-input-hydrology-in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Our results suggest that, during this period, the global nutrient delivery to streams increased from 34 to 64 Tg N yr-1 and from 5 to 9 Tg P yr-1. Furthermore, in-stream retention and removal grew from 14 to 27 Tg N yr-1 and 3 to 5 Tg P yr-1. One of the major causes of increased retention is the growing number of reservoirs, which now account for 24 and 22 % of global N and P retention/removal in freshwater systems, respectively. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers with the consequence that river nutrient transport to the ocean increased from 19 to 37 Tg N yr-1 and from 2 to 4 Tg P yr-1. Human activities have also led to a global increase in the molar N : P ratio in freshwater bodies.

  2. Global resilience analysis of water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diao, Kegong; Sweetapple, Chris; Farmani, Raziyeh; Fu, Guangtao; Ward, Sarah; Butler, David

    2016-12-01

    Evaluating and enhancing resilience in water infrastructure is a crucial step towards more sustainable urban water management. As a prerequisite to enhancing resilience, a detailed understanding is required of the inherent resilience of the underlying system. Differing from traditional risk analysis, here we propose a global resilience analysis (GRA) approach that shifts the objective from analysing multiple and unknown threats to analysing the more identifiable and measurable system responses to extreme conditions, i.e. potential failure modes. GRA aims to evaluate a system's resilience to a possible failure mode regardless of the causal threat(s) (known or unknown, external or internal). The method is applied to test the resilience of four water distribution systems (WDSs) with various features to three typical failure modes (pipe failure, excess demand, and substance intrusion). The study reveals GRA provides an overview of a water system's resilience to various failure modes. For each failure mode, it identifies the range of corresponding failure impacts and reveals extreme scenarios (e.g. the complete loss of water supply with only 5% pipe failure, or still meeting 80% of demand despite over 70% of pipes failing). GRA also reveals that increased resilience to one failure mode may decrease resilience to another and increasing system capacity may delay the system's recovery in some situations. It is also shown that selecting an appropriate level of detail for hydraulic models is of great importance in resilience analysis. The method can be used as a comprehensive diagnostic framework to evaluate a range of interventions for improving system resilience in future studies.

  3. The real and the complex a history of analysis in the 19th century

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    This book contains a history of real and complex analysis in the nineteenth century, from the work of Lagrange and Fourier to the origins of set theory and the modern foundations of analysis. It studies the works of many contributors including Gauss, Cauchy, Riemann, and Weierstrass. This book is unique owing to the treatment of real and complex analysis as overlapping, inter-related subjects, in keeping with how they were seen at the time. It is suitable as a course in the history of mathematics for students who have studied an introductory course in analysis, and will enrich any course in undergraduate real or complex analysis.

  4. Global Analysis of a Flexible Riser

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liping Sun; Bo Qi

    2011-01-01

    The mechanical performance of a flexible riser is more outstanding than other risers in violent environmental conditions.Based on the lumped mass method,a steep wave flexible riser configuration attached to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading(FPSO)has been applied to a global analysis in order to acquire the static and dynamic behavior of the flexible riser.The riser was divided into a series of straight massless line segments with a node at each end.Only the axial and torsional properties of the line were modeled,while the mass,weight,and buoyancy were all lumped to the nodes.Four different buoyancy module lengths have been made to demonstrate the importance of mode selection,so as to confirm the optimum buoyancy module length.The results in the sensitivity study show that the flexible riser is not very sensitive to the ocean current,and the buoyancy module can reduce the Von Mises stress and improve the mechanical performance of the flexible riser.Shorter buoyancy module length can reduce the riser effective tension in a specific range of the buoyancy module length when other parameters are constant,but it can also increase the maximum curvature of the riser.As a result,all kinds of the riser performances should be taken into account in order to select the most appropriate buoyancy module length.

  5. Global analysis of photosynthesis transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imam, Saheed; Noguera, Daniel R; Donohue, Timothy J

    2014-12-01

    Photosynthesis is a crucial biological process that depends on the interplay of many components. This work analyzed the gene targets for 4 transcription factors: FnrL, PrrA, CrpK and MppG (RSP_2888), which are known or predicted to control photosynthesis in Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq) identified 52 operons under direct control of FnrL, illustrating its regulatory role in photosynthesis, iron homeostasis, nitrogen metabolism and regulation of sRNA synthesis. Using global gene expression analysis combined with ChIP-seq, we mapped the regulons of PrrA, CrpK and MppG. PrrA regulates ∼34 operons encoding mainly photosynthesis and electron transport functions, while CrpK, a previously uncharacterized Crp-family protein, regulates genes involved in photosynthesis and maintenance of iron homeostasis. Furthermore, CrpK and FnrL share similar DNA binding determinants, possibly explaining our observation of the ability of CrpK to partially compensate for the growth defects of a ΔFnrL mutant. We show that the Rrf2 family protein, MppG, plays an important role in photopigment biosynthesis, as part of an incoherent feed-forward loop with PrrA. Our results reveal a previously unrealized, high degree of combinatorial regulation of photosynthetic genes and significant cross-talk between their transcriptional regulators, while illustrating previously unidentified links between photosynthesis and the maintenance of iron homeostasis.

  6. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  7. 20th century global warming favoured enhanced intensity of extreme torrential events - a proglacial sediment record in NW French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Legaz, A.; Allignol, F.; Enters, D.; Revillon, S.

    2009-04-01

    During the past few yeas, considerable climate changes have been observed at high elevation areas of the European Alps. Additionally, one of the main results of high resolution climate modelling is a trend towards both dryer summer conditions and enhanced risk of extreme floods. This should have particularly dramatic consequences in alpine areas. Indeed, the development of tourism during the 20th century in the Alps and the rise of population density resulted in an increasing potential risk from natural hazards. Among them, torrential floods are some of the most common and widespread ones. They cause both loss of human life and high damage to property and infrastructure and are particularly destructive in mountain areas. For example, in August 2005, an unusual meteorological situation resulted in a series of catastrophic floods in most regions of the European Alps and particularly in the catchment of the Vorz river, downstream of proglacial Lac Blanc (2170 m a.s.l., Belledonne range, NW French Alps). We studied a series of sediment cores from Lac Blanc, spanning the last ca. 250 years. Through a coupled high resolution sedimentological and geochemical approach we documented about 100 flood deposits and measured their thickness. The age of each deposit has been assessed by radiochemical dating and the recognition of historically-known events - major earthquakes and historical atmospheric lead deposition. Furthermore, a detailed study of regional and local historical archives was conducted allowing us to relate the recognised flood deposits to the ones reported by local population. We hence obtained a flood calendar from 1740 to 2005 with the respective intensity of each event assessed by the thickness of the associated deposit. The flood frequency shows an important and punctual increase at the early end of the Little Ice Age (1830 - 1860) as a response to the beginning warming period, which was emphasized by the synchronous local glacier retreat. On the other hand

  8. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  9. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  10. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21): A big-data fusion approach

    CERN Document Server

    Hamilton, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    CGMFC-21 provides high resolution local, regional, national, and global estimates of annual mangrove forest levels using continuous data from 2000 through to 2012 with the goal of driving mangrove research questions pertaining to biodiversity, climate change, food security, livelihoods, fisheries support, and conservation that have been hindered until now by a lack of suitable data. CGMFC-21 provides the required spatiotemporal resolutions to not only set REDD baseline measures globally in a systematic manner, but also to account for forest degradation as well as deforestation on an annual basis. Countries showing relatively high levels of 21st Century mangrove loss include Myanmar, Guatemala, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Many nations that have reported mangrove deforestation in earlier periods such as Ecuador, Bangladesh and Nigeria, have stabilized their mangrove levels during this period. Indonesia remains by far the largest mangrove holding nation containing between 26.16% and 28.50% of the global m...

  11. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  12. Global Analysis of a Planetary Gear Train

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongjie Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using the Poincaré-like cell-to-cell mapping method and shooting method, the global characteristics of a planetary gear train are studied based on the torsional vibration model with errors of transmission, time-varying meshing stiffness, and multiple gear backlashes. The study results reveal that the planetary with a certain set of parameters has four coexisting periodic orbits, which are P-1, P-2, P-4, and P-8, respectively. P-1 and P-2 motions are not of long-term stability, P-8 motion is of local stability, and P-4 motion is of global stability. Shooting method does not have the capacity of searching coexisting periodic orbits in a global scope, and it is easy to omit some periodic orbits which are far away from the main gropes of periodic orbits.

  13. Analysis and the hierarchy of nature in eighteenth-century chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Jonathan

    2002-03-01

    What was the impact of Lavoisier's new elementary chemical analysis on the conception and practice of chemistry in the vegetable kingdom at the end of the eighteenth century? I examine how this elementary analysis relates both to more traditional plant analysis and to philosophical and mathematical concepts of analysis of current in the Enlightenment. Thus I explore the relationship between algebra, Condillac's philosophy and Lavoisier's chemical system as well as comparing Lavoisier's analytical approach to those of his predecessors, such as Baumè and Bucquet. With reference to the aims of vegetable analysis, I show how the dominance of elementary analysis devalued a tradition that sought to isolate immediate principles (plant extracts), marginalizing the chemical practices of many doctors and pharmacists in the context of the new chemistry in France.

  14. The Twenty-First Century and Legal Studies in Business: Preparing Students to Perform in a Globally Competitive Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Debra D.; Johnson, Ronald A.; Kemp, Deborah J.

    2010-01-01

    This article first examines the dynamic role business education must play in a flat world economy. Second, it explains how legal courses in the business curricula already equip students with portable twenty-first-century skills and relevant academic content. The article then advocates the acceptance of the Boyer Model of Scholarship, which defines…

  15. Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI XiangDong; PENG ChangHui; TIAN DaLun; SUN JianFeng

    2007-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from individual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodologies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of disturbances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthesis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments' decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.

  16. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  17. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    Full Text Available Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM, we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4 PgC yr(-1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6% under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2% under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s. This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1, the high emission scenario (A2 would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and

  18. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21)

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Stuart; Casey, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this research is to provide high resolution local, regional, national and global estimates of annual mangrove forest area from 2000 through to 2012. To achieve this we synthesize the Global Forest Change database, the Terrestrial Ecosystems of the World database, and the Mangrove Forests of the World database to extract mangrove forest cover at high spatial and temporal resolutions. We then use the new database to monitor mangrove cover at the global, national and protected area s...

  19. Biological Sciences for the 21st Century: Meeting the Challenges of Sustainable Development in an Era of Global Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joel Cracraft; Richard O' Grady

    2007-05-12

    The symposium was held 10-12 May, 2007 at the Capitol Hilton Hotel in Washington, D. C. The 30 talks explored how some of today's key biological research developments (such as biocomplexity and complex systems analysis, bioinformatics and computational biology, the expansion of molecular and genomics research, and the emergence of other comprehensive or system wide analyses, such as proteomics) contribute to sustainability science. The symposium therefore emphasized the challenges facing agriculture, human health, sustainable energy, and the maintenance of ecosystems and their services, so as to provide a focus and a suite of examples of the enormous potential contributions arising from these new developments in the biological sciences. This symposium was the first to provide a venue for exploring how the ongoing advances in the biological sciences together with new approaches for improving knowledge integration and institutional science capacity address key global challenges to sustainability. The speakers presented new research findings, and identified new approaches and needs in biological research that can be expected to have substantial impacts on sustainability science.

  20. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  1. Small global effect on terrestrial net primary production due to increased fossil fuel aerosol emissions from East Asia since the turn of the century

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, M.; Rap, A.; Reddington, C. L.; Spracklen, D. V.; Gloor, M.; Buermann, W.

    2016-08-01

    The global terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the start of this century at a time of growing carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning. Here we test the hypothesis that increases in atmospheric aerosols from fossil fuel burning enhanced the diffuse light fraction and the efficiency of plant carbon uptake. Using a combination of models, we estimate that at global scale changes in light regimes from fossil fuel aerosol emissions had only a small negative effect on the increase in terrestrial net primary production over the period 1998-2010. Hereby, the substantial increases in fossil fuel aerosol emissions and plant carbon uptake over East Asia were effectively canceled by opposing trends across Europe and North America. This suggests that if the recent increase in the land carbon sink would be causally linked to fossil fuel emissions, it is unlikely via the effect of aerosols but due to other factors such as nitrogen deposition or nitrogen-carbon interactions.

  2. Small global effect on terrestrial net primary production due to increased fossil fuel aerosol emissions from East Asia since the turn of the century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, M; Rap, A; Reddington, C L; Spracklen, D V; Gloor, M; Buermann, W

    2016-08-16

    The global terrestrial carbon sink has increased since the start of this century at a time of growing carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning. Here we test the hypothesis that increases in atmospheric aerosols from fossil fuel burning enhanced the diffuse light fraction and the efficiency of plant carbon uptake. Using a combination of models, we estimate that at global scale changes in light regimes from fossil fuel aerosol emissions had only a small negative effect on the increase in terrestrial net primary production over the period 1998-2010. Hereby, the substantial increases in fossil fuel aerosol emissions and plant carbon uptake over East Asia were effectively canceled by opposing trends across Europe and North America. This suggests that if the recent increase in the land carbon sink would be causally linked to fossil fuel emissions, it is unlikely via the effect of aerosols but due to other factors such as nitrogen deposition or nitrogen-carbon interactions.

  3. Trends towards global excellence in undergraduate education: taking the liberal arts experience into the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wende, van der Marijk

    2012-01-01

    Dissatisfaction over undergraduate education seems to be persistent and has been jeopardized by the boost in research performance as fuelled by global rankings. Yet it will continue to be the cornerstone and a key mission of higher education. Hence the tide is shifting and the global debate on “the

  4. Trends towards global excellence in undergraduate education: taking the liberal arts experience into the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wende, van der M.C.

    2014-01-01

    Dissatisfaction over undergraduate education seems to be persistent and has been jeopardized by the boost in research performance as fuelled by global rankings. Yet it will continue to be the cornerstone and a key mission of higher education. Hence the tide is shifting and the global debate on “the

  5. China's food economy in the early 21st Century; Development of China's food economy and its impact on global trade and on the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, van F.W.; Huang, J.

    2004-01-01

    Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assesment of impacts o

  6. The disease of corruption: views on how to fight corruption to advance 21(st) century global health goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Tim K; Kohler, Jillian Clare; Savedoff, William D; Vogl, Frank; Lewis, Maureen; Sale, James; Michaud, Joshua; Vian, Taryn

    2016-09-29

    Corruption has been described as a disease. When corruption infiltrates global health, it can be particularly devastating, threatening hard gained improvements in human and economic development, international security, and population health. Yet, the multifaceted and complex nature of global health corruption makes it extremely difficult to tackle, despite its enormous costs, which have been estimated in the billions of dollars. In this forum article, we asked anti-corruption experts to identify key priority areas that urgently need global attention in order to advance the fight against global health corruption. The views shared by this multidisciplinary group of contributors reveal several fundamental challenges and allow us to explore potential solutions to address the unique risks posed by health-related corruption. Collectively, these perspectives also provide a roadmap that can be used in support of global health anti-corruption efforts in the post-2015 development agenda.

  7. Global analysis of the protection status of the world's forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Christine B.; Burgess, Neil David; Coad, Lauren

    2009-01-01

    on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39 million....... Considering their biodiversity importance, forest protection within global priority areas was insufficient, e.g., median protection of 8.4% in biodiversity hotspots (IUCN I-IV). Results have policy relevance in terms of the target of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), reconfirmed in 2008......This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information...

  8. Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

  9. "Competing Conceptions of Globalization" Revisited: Relocating the Tension between World-Systems Analysis and Globalization Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many scholars have become fascinated by a contemporary, multidimensional process that has come to be known as "globalization." Globalization originally described economic developments at the world level. More specifically, scholars invoked the concept in reference to the process of global economic integration and the seemingly…

  10. Global Analysis of a Planetary Gear Train

    OpenAIRE

    Tongjie Li; Rupeng Zhu

    2014-01-01

    By using the Poincaré-like cell-to-cell mapping method and shooting method, the global characteristics of a planetary gear train are studied based on the torsional vibration model with errors of transmission, time-varying meshing stiffness, and multiple gear backlashes. The study results reveal that the planetary with a certain set of parameters has four coexisting periodic orbits, which are P-1, P-2, P-4, and P-8, respectively. P-1 and P-2 motions are not of long-term stability, P-8 motion ...

  11. Global coupled equations for dynamic analysis of planishing mill

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡敢为; 钟掘

    2003-01-01

    The dynamic properties of rolling mill are significantly influenced by many coupling factors. Accordingto the coupled mechanical and electric dynamics theory, the global coupled equations for the dynamic analysis ofplanishing mill CM04 of Shanghai Baosteel Group Corporation were derived, by using finite element methods. Theseelasto-dynamic equations establish the coupling relations among the stand vibration system, torsional vibration sys-tem, driving motors, etc. It provides theoretical basis to a certain extent for globally dynamic simulation, analysis ofstability of motion, prediction of abnormal operating mode, globally optimum design and control, etc.

  12. Water Grabbing analysis at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M.; Saviori, A.; D'Odorico, P.

    2012-12-01

    "Land grabbing" is the acquisition of agricultural land by foreign governments and corporations, a phenomenon that has greatly intensified over the last few years as a result of the increase in food prices and biofuel demand. Land grabbing is inherently associated with an appropriation of freshwater resources that has never been investigated before. Here we provide a global assessment of the total grabbed land and water resources. Using process-based agro-hydrological models we estimate the rates of freshwater grabbing worldwide. We find that this phenomenon is occurring at alarming rates in all continents except Antarctica. The per capita volume of grabbed water often exceeds the water requirements for a balanced diet and would be sufficient to abate malnourishment in the grabbed countries. High rates of water grabbing are often associated with deforestation and the increase in water withdrawals for irrigation.

  13. X-Ray Fluorescence Analysis of XII–XIV Century Italian Gold Coins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Baldassarri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An extensive analytical study has been performed on a large number of gold coins (Norman-Swabian Augustale and Tarì, Grosso of Lucca, Florin of Florence minted in Italy from the end of XII century to XIV century. The X-ray fluorescence (XRF technique was used for verifying the composition of the coins. XRF is a nondestructive technique particularly suited for in situ quantitative analysis of gold and minor elements in the precious alloy. The Florins turned out to have a gold content very close to 24 carats (pure gold although in a couple of cases we observed relatively high concentrations of iron (around 2% or lead (around 1%. The Grosso of Lucca has a similar composition, with a measured gold content around 97% due to a higher silver percentage (about 2%, with respect to the average Florin. The Augustali analyzed showed, on average, a gold content around 89%. The average gold content of the Tarì analysed is around 72%, with a relatively large variability. The analysis revealed the use of native gold for the coinage of the Florins, excluding the possibility of recycling gold coming from other sources. On the other hand, the variability observed in the compositions of the Tarì and Augustali could suggest the reuse of Islamic and North African gold. The study could shed some light on the sudden diffusion of gold coins in Italy around the first half of XIII century, allowing hypotheses on the provenience of the gold used for a coinage that dominated the economic trades from then on.

  14. Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Vodenska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the daily returns of stock market indices and currencies of 56 countries over the period of 2002–2012. We build a network model consisting of two layers, one being the stock market indices and the other the foreign exchange markets. Synchronous and lagged correlations are used as measures of connectivity and causality among different parts of the global economic system for two different time intervals: non-crisis (2002–2006 and crisis (2007–2012 periods. We study community formations within the network to understand the influences and vulnerabilities of specific countries or groups of countries. We observe different behavior of the cross correlations and communities for crisis vs. non-crisis periods. For example, the overall correlation of stock markets increases during crisis while the overall correlation in the foreign exchange market and the correlation between stock and foreign exchange markets decrease, which leads to different community structures. We observe that the euro, while being central during the relatively calm period, loses its dominant role during crisis. Furthermore we discover that the troubled Eurozone countries, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, form their own cluster during the crisis period.

  15. Comprehensive Security Framework for Global Threats Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronique Legrand

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Cyber criminality activities are changing and becoming more and more professional. With the growth of financial flows through the Internet and the Information System (IS, new kinds of thread arise involving complex scenarios spread within multiple IS components. The IS information modeling and Behavioral Analysis are becoming new solutions to normalize the IS information and counter these new threads. This paper presents a framework which details the principal and necessary steps for monitoring an IS. We present the architecture of the framework, i.e. an ontology of activities carried out within an IS to model security information and User Behavioral analysis. The results of the performed experiments on real data show that the modeling is effective to reduce the amount of events by 91%. The User Behavioral Analysis on uniform modeled data is also effective, detecting more than 80% of legitimate actions of attack scenarios.

  16. Comprehensive Security Framework for Global Threads Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Saraydaryan, Jacques; Ubeda, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    Cyber criminality activities are changing and becoming more and more professional. With the growth of financial flows through the Internet and the Information System (IS), new kinds of thread arise involving complex scenarios spread within multiple IS components. The IS information modeling and Behavioral Analysis are becoming new solutions to normalize the IS information and counter these new threads. This paper presents a framework which details the principal and necessary steps for monitoring an IS. We present the architecture of the framework, i.e. an ontology of activities carried out within an IS to model security information and User Behavioral analysis. The results of the performed experiments on real data show that the modeling is effective to reduce the amount of events by 91%. The User Behavioral Analysis on uniform modeled data is also effective, detecting more than 80% of legitimate actions of attack scenarios.

  17. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Müller, C.; Neumann, K.

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate

  18. A Comparative Analysis of International Frameworks for 21st Century Competences: Implications for National Curriculum Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voogt, Joke; Roblin, Natalie Pareja

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites of the selected frameworks, resulting in 32…

  19. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Higher education system occupies a special place in the policy of each nation. Regardless of geographical location, socio-economic or cultural differences, the need to improve the education offered for population by facilitating access to higher education becomes more and more important. Providing a suitable framework for the personal development of each student is expensive and involves high amounts of money. From the analyses carried out we couldn\\'t identify the substantial differences between the way it is structured and organized education system worldwide. However, we were able to identify a number of common elements that create a global University System. The need to invest in human resources through structural reforms in each country is present, and therefore a higher indention to pay greater attention to the development of the higher education system. In our work we decided to analyze education systems in countries like United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (GB, China (CHN, Germany (DE, France (FR, Russian Federation (RU, Japan (JPN average values recorded for EU-27 and last but not least Romania (RO. Although the investment in the University system is hard to quantify, it is unanimously acknowledged that a country can achieve a competitive advantage in international relations through a very well prepared and trained personnel. The countries reviewed in this paper have different policies when it comes to financial support of the University System. If Germany and France have decided to get involved directly in supporting the system by allocating the necessary funds from the State budget, another European country, the United Kingdom, decided to apply a policy diametrically opposite, similar to that existing in the USA and cover in a lesser degree the needs of universities in Government funds. Regardless of the policy adopted the results are intended to be the same: facilitating access to university education, a high quality of

  20. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Corzo Perez

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river basin models. This paper presents two methodologies that extend the tools to analyze spatio-temporal drought development and characteristics using large scale gridded time series of hydrometeorological data. The methodologies are classified as non-contiguous and contiguous drought area analyses (i.e. NCDA and CDA. The NCDA presents time series of percentages of areas in drought at the global scale and for pre-defined regions of known hydroclimatology. The CDA is introduced as a complementary method that generates information on the spatial coherence of drought events at the global scale. Spatial drought events are found through CDA by clustering patterns (contiguous areas. In this study the global hydrological model WaterGAP was used to illustrate the methodology development. Global gridded time series of subsurface runoff (resolution 0.5° simulated with the WaterGAP model from land points were used. The NCDA and CDA were developed to identify drought events in runoff. The percentages of area in drought calculated with both methods show complementary information on the spatial and temporal events for the last decades of the 20th century. The NCDA provides relevant information on the average number of droughts, duration and severity (deficit volume for pre-defined regions (globe, 2 selected hydroclimatic regions. Additionally, the CDA provides information on the number of spatially linked areas in drought, maximum spatial event and their geographic location on the globe. Some results capture the overall spatio-temporal drought extremes over the last decades of the 20th century. Events like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in South America and

  1. Efficient Global Programming Model for Discriminant Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.ANGULAKSHMI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional statistical analysis includes the capacity to systematically assign individuals to groups. We suggest alternative assignment procedures, utilizing a set of interrelated goal programming formulations. This paper represents an effort to suggest ways by which the discriminant problem might reasonably be addressed via straightforward linear goal programming formulations. Simple and direct, such formulations may ultimately compete with conventional approaches - free of the classical assumptions and possessing a stronger intuitive appeal. We further demonstrate via simple illustration the potential of these procedures to play a significant part in addressing the discriminant problem, and indicate fundamental ideas that lay the foundation for other more sophisticated approaches.

  2. A generalized preimage theorem in global analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA; Jipu

    2001-01-01

    [1]Ma Jipu, (1.2) inverses of operators between Banach spaces and conjugacy theorem, Chinese Annals of Math., B, 1999, 20(1): 57.[2]Ma Jipu, Rank theorem of operators between Banach spaces, Science in China, Ser. A, 2000, 43(1): 1.[3]Ma Jipu, Local conjugacy theorem, rank theorems in advenced calculus and a generalized principle constructing Banach manifolds, Science in China, Ser. A, 2000, 43(12): 1233.[4]Zeidler, A. E., Nonlinear Function Analysis and Its Applications, IV: Applications to Mathematical Physics, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1988.

  3. Bayesian global analysis of neutrino oscillation data

    CERN Document Server

    Bergstrom, Johannes; Maltoni, Michele; Schwetz, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis of current neutrino oscillation data. When estimating the oscillation parameters we find that the results generally agree with those of the $\\chi^2$ method, with some differences involving $s_{23}^2$ and CP-violating effects. We discuss the additional subtleties caused by the circular nature of the CP-violating phase, and how it is possible to obtain correlation coefficients with $s_{23}^2$. When performing model comparison, we find that there is no significant evidence for any mass ordering, any octant of $s_{23}^2$ or a deviation from maximal mixing, nor the presence of CP-violation.

  4. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  5. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS initiative and its approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  6. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  7. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all three models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in productivity and export of particulate organic carbon. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in primary and export production as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where two models project an increase in productivity while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observations compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer primary production from satellite observations.

  8. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  9. Century-scale causal relationships between global drought conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-04-01

    Drought is one of the costliest and least understood natural hazards. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are atmosphere-ocean coupled modes of climate variability that occur in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In this study, the Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of ENSO, PDO, and NAO on global drought conditions. The results show robust relationships between drought conditions and the ocean states, as assessed through a multi-index (SPEI and SPI) and multiscalar (3-month and 12-month) evaluation. The influence of ENSO events is widespread, dominating about 40% of the global land droughts. Southern and western North America, northern South America, and eastern Russia are more influenced by PDO. Results show that NAO influence on drought is not restricted to Europe and includes northern Africa. The role of NAO is most evident at 3-month time scale. Moreover, the results provide evidence that drought conditions can be affected by multiple factors. ENSO and PDO may reinforce each other to dominate climate variability over North America and northern South America. Climate variability in southern Europe and northern Africa may be forced by the concurrence of ENSO and NAO. The spatial patterns of the influence of ocean states on global droughts provide valuable information for improving drought forecasting.

  10. Century-scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; AghaKouchak, Amir; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-06-01

    The Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on global dry/wet conditions. The results show robust relationships between dry/wet conditions and the ocean states, as assessed through a multi-index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index) and multiscale (3 months and 12 months) evaluation. The influence of ENSO events is widespread, dominating about 38% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica). Southern and western North America, northern South America, and eastern Russia are influenced by the PDO. The NAO influences not only dry/wet conditions in Europe but also dry/wet conditions in northern Africa. Similarly, climate variability in southern Europe and northern Africa may be due to the concurrence of the ENSO and the NAO. Knowledge of the spatial influence of ocean states on global dry/wet conditions is valuable for improving drought and flood forecasting.

  11. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  12. Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范玮丽

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.

  13. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  14. A global optimization approach to multi-polarity sentiment analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinmiao; Li, Jing; Wu, Yukeng

    2015-01-01

    Following the rapid development of social media, sentiment analysis has become an important social media mining technique. The performance of automatic sentiment analysis primarily depends on feature selection and sentiment classification. While information gain (IG) and support vector machines (SVM) are two important techniques, few studies have optimized both approaches in sentiment analysis. The effectiveness of applying a global optimization approach to sentiment analysis remains unclear. We propose a global optimization-based sentiment analysis (PSOGO-Senti) approach to improve sentiment analysis with IG for feature selection and SVM as the learning engine. The PSOGO-Senti approach utilizes a particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain a global optimal combination of feature dimensions and parameters in the SVM. We evaluate the PSOGO-Senti model on two datasets from different fields. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti model can improve binary and multi-polarity Chinese sentiment analysis. We compared the optimal feature subset selected by PSOGO-Senti with the features in the sentiment dictionary. The results of this comparison indicated that PSOGO-Senti can effectively remove redundant and noisy features and can select a domain-specific feature subset with a higher-explanatory power for a particular sentiment analysis task. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti approach is effective and robust for sentiment analysis tasks in different domains. By comparing the improvements of two-polarity, three-polarity and five-polarity sentiment analysis results, we found that the five-polarity sentiment analysis delivered the largest improvement. The improvement of the two-polarity sentiment analysis was the smallest. We conclude that the PSOGO-Senti achieves higher improvement for a more complicated sentiment analysis task. We also compared the results of PSOGO-Senti with those of the genetic algorithm (GA) and grid search method. From

  15. Natural and Anthropogenic Controls over Global Terrestrial N2O Emission Growth at a Century-Long Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Kamaljit, K.; Zhang, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 20% relative to pre-industrial level. It has attracted growing attention since N2O has long life time and radiative forcing 265 times higher than CO2 at 100-year time horizon. Global N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystem is among the most important contributors to the increase of atmospheric N2O. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, less intensive studies have been performed in assessing the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial N2O emission and attributing its changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances across the globe. Here we integrated gridded time-series data of climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) to a process-based land ecosystem model, DLEM, for answering the above questions. During 1900-2010, the inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes have been examined. Through this, we distinguished and quantified the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities to N2O emission growth at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. The impacts of climate variability, and increasing nitrogen input, particularly nitrogen fertilizer use along with enhanced food production, have been paid special attention. Hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission are identified in this study. It provides clue for scientific community and policy makers to develop potential management strategies for mitigating atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  16. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  17. Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Lauk, Christian; Haas, Willi; Tanikawa, Hiroki; Miatto, Alessio; Haberl, Helmut

    2017-01-01

    Human-made material stocks accumulating in buildings, infrastructure, and machinery play a crucial but underappreciated role in shaping the use of material and energy resources. Building, maintaining, and in particular operating in-use stocks of materials require raw materials and energy. Material stocks create long-term path-dependencies because of their longevity. Fostering a transition toward environmentally sustainable patterns of resource use requires a more complete understanding of stock-flow relations. Here we show that about half of all materials extracted globally by humans each year are used to build up or renew in-use stocks of materials. Based on a dynamic stock-flow model, we analyze stocks, inflows, and outflows of all materials and their relation to economic growth, energy use, and CO2 emissions from 1900 to 2010. Over this period, global material stocks increased 23-fold, reaching 792 Pg (±5%) in 2010. Despite efforts to improve recycling rates, continuous stock growth precludes closing material loops; recycling still only contributes 12% of inflows to stocks. Stocks are likely to continue to grow, driven by large infrastructure and building requirements in emerging economies. A convergence of material stocks at the level of industrial countries would lead to a fourfold increase in global stocks, and CO2 emissions exceeding climate change goals. Reducing expected future increases of material and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will require decoupling of services from the stocks and flows of materials through, for example, more intensive utilization of existing stocks, longer service lifetimes, and more efficient design. PMID:28167761

  18. century drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-11-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  19. Global multi-level analysis of the 'scientific food web'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloumian, Amin; Helbing, Dirk; Lozano, Sergi; Light, Robert P; Börner, Katy

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a network-based index analyzing excess scientific production and consumption to perform a comprehensive global analysis of scholarly knowledge production and diffusion on the level of continents, countries, and cities. Compared to measures of scientific production and consumption such as number of publications or citation rates, our network-based citation analysis offers a more differentiated picture of the 'ecosystem of science'. Quantifying knowledge flows between 2000 and 2009, we identify global sources and sinks of knowledge production. Our knowledge flow index reveals, where ideas are born and consumed, thereby defining a global 'scientific food web'. While Asia is quickly catching up in terms of publications and citation rates, we find that its dependence on knowledge consumption has further increased.

  20. Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…

  1. Globalization and International Student Mobility: A Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This article analyzes changes to the network of international student mobility in higher education over a 10-year period (1999-2008). International student flows have increased rapidly, exceeding 3 million in 2009, and extensive data on mobility provide unique insight into global educational processes. The analysis is informed by three theoretical…

  2. Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

    2012-02-07

    Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

  3. Statistical analysis of measured global insolation data for Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raja, I.A. (Balochistan Univ., Quetta (Pakistan). Dept. of Physics); Twidell, J.W. (Strathclyde Univ., Glasgow (United Kingdom). Energy Studies Unit)

    1994-01-01

    The global insolation data for up to 15 years from six locations in Pakistan are analysed. In addition to simple arithmetic analysis, tables and figures of cumulative frequency distribution and number of consecutive days above certain threshold insolation values are constructed. Results are presented for monthly and annual periods for practical application when planning solar installation. (author)

  4. Global Analysis of Helicity PDFs: past - present - future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Florian, D.; Stratmann, M.; Sassot, R.; Vogelsang, W.

    2011-04-11

    We discuss the current status of the DSSV global analysis of helicity-dependent parton densities. A comparison with recent semi-inclusive DIS data from COMPASS is presented, and constraints on the polarized strangeness density are examined in some detail.

  5. Global Analysis of Horizontal Gene Transfer in Fusarium verticillioides

    Science.gov (United States)

    The co-occurrence of microbes within plants and other specialized niches may facilitate horizontal gene transfer (HGT) affecting host-pathogen interactions. We recently identified fungal-to-fungal HGTs involving metabolic gene clusters. For a global analysis of HGTs in the maize pathogen Fusarium ve...

  6. The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

    2016-12-19

    The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO2 .

  7. Trends in research on global climate change: A Science Citation Index Expanded-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinfeng; Wang, Ming-Huang; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2011-05-01

    This study was conceived to evaluate the global scientific output of climate change research over the past 18 years and to assess the characteristics of the research patterns, tendencies, and methods in the papers. Data were based on the online version of Science Citation Index Expanded from 1992 to 2009. Articles referring to climate change were assessed by distribution of source countries, source institutes, paper titles, author keywords, KeyWords Plus, abstracts, and the most cited articles in these years. By synthetic analysis of the four kinds of keywords, it was concluded that the items "temperature", "environment", "precipitation", "greenhouse gas", "risk", and "biodiversity" will be the foci of climate change research in the 21st century, while "model", "monitoring", and "remote sensing" will continue to be the leading research methods. A novel method, "phylogeography", may have a strong application potential in the near future.

  8. Global metabolic profiling and its role in systems biology to advance personalized medicine in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnackenberg, Laura K

    2007-05-01

    Systems biology attempts to elucidate the complex interaction between genes, proteins and metabolites to provide a mechanistic understanding of cellular function and how this function is affected by disease processes, drug toxicity or drug efficacy effects. Global metabolic profiling is an important component of systems biology that can be applied in both preclinical and clinical settings for drug discovery and development, and to study disease mechanisms. The metabolic profile encodes the phenotype, which is composed of the genotype and environmental factors. The phenotypic profile can be used to make decisions about the best course of treatment for an individual patient. Understanding the combined effects of genetics and environment through a systems biology framework will enable the advancement of personalized medicine.

  9. The regional patterns of the global dynamic and steric sea level variation in twenty-first century projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Tan, Wei; Chen, Meixiang; Zuo, Juncheng; Yang, Yiqiu

    2016-11-01

    This study discusses the regional sea-level variation associated with possible influence factors using Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in the 21st century. Under the moderate emission scenario of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), the predicted sea-level variation is spatially non-uniform. The most remarkable variation of the dynamic sea level (DSL) is observed in three typical regions (North Pacific, Southern Ocean, and North Atlantic). In the North Pacific, the DSL rises significantly around Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension, while declines in the subpolar gyre. The DSL variation shows an out-of-phase relationship with the Sverdrup transport, indicating that the wind stress induced Sverdrup transport is generally responsible for the DSL variation. In the Southern Ocean, the DSL variation performs a belt-like pattern, it rises around 40°S zonal band, while declines in its southern side, this is related to the enhancement of westerly wind stress. In the North Atlantic, the DSL variation acts as a dipole mode, it rises in the north of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), and declines in the south. This dipole pattern can be also interpreted by the Sverdrup transport except in the northeast of the NAC, where the DSL rise is more affected by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Compared with the DSL, the steric sea level (SSL) rises in most of the ocean, and the thermosteric sea level (TSL) is the major contributor. Only in the Southern Ocean, the SSL descends. The decreased SSL is affected by the halosteric sea level (HSL), which is mainly attributed to the weakly increased salinity from 300 m to the bottom. To some extent, the HSL also contributes to the SSL rise in the Pacific, this is caused by the seawater freshening and warming in the upper 1500 m. However, in the Atlantic, the HSL declines, thus partly offsets the rising effect of the TSL. These opposite variations are associated with

  10. A time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Estrada

    Full Text Available In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970's. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.

  11. Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

    2016-03-01

    Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

  12. For Nature: Deep Greening World-Systems Analysis for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sing S. Chew

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available From its conception the world-systems perspective has been preoccupied with the study of long term global transformations (see for ex., Frank 1968, 1979; Wallerstein 1974; Amin 1974; Wolf, 1982; Chase-Dunn 1989; Chase-Dunn and Hall 1992; Kaplan 1978.2. To this extent, the various structural relationships, trends, and cycles of the world system have been identified to explain the processes of global transformation. The varied attempts to pinpoint and analyze these relations, trends, and cycles have been within the context of connections between humans, classes, status groups, industries, regions, and states in the world economy. From an ecological point of view (ontologically and epistemologically, such a manner of understanding change is quite anthropocentric, as global transformation necessitates a changing relationship with Nature. In an era of increasing global concern and awareness of the finite nature of natural resources and the growing realization of the contemporary losses in plant and animal species and the continued susceptibility of the human species to climatological changes and diseases despite various scientific and technological advances, we need to consider that besides social relations and structures, the basis of human reproduction includes our relationships with the non-human world (ecology. World-systems /world system analyses need to move beyond deciphering the processes of global change only through the social (anthropocentric dimension of the relations underlining these processes. Keeping to just the social relations/structures of the reproduction of the system limits the range of explanations we can provide for global transformation, and also restricts the dimensions whereby the basis for these changes can be explored. This paper is an attempt to introduce the other basic dimension (our relations with Nature into the overall equation of world-systems/world system analyses for our understanding of global change. Ultimately

  13. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  14. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL DYNAMICS IN A PAIAMETIICALLY EXCITED THIN PLATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张伟

    2001-01-01

    The global bifurcations and chaos of a simply supported rectangular thin plate with parametric excitation are analyzed. The formulas of the thin plate are derived by yon Karman type equation and Galerkin's approach. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain the averaged equations. Based on the averaged equations, the theory of the normal form is used to give the explicit expressions of the normal form associated with a double zero and a pair of pure imaginary eigenvalues by Maple program. On the basis of the normal form, a global bifurcation analysis of the parametrically excited recta ngular thin plate is given by the global perturbation method developed by Kovacic and Wiggins. The chaotic motion of thin plate is also found by numerical simulation.

  15. Chemistry and Chemical Education through Text and Image: Analysis of Twentieth Century Textbooks Used in Brazilian Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Karina Ap F. D.; Porto, Paulo Alves

    2012-01-01

    Assuming that textbooks give literary expression to cultural and ideological values of a nation or group, we propose the analysis of chemistry textbooks used in Brazilian universities throughout the twentieth century. We analyzed iconographic and textual aspects of 31 textbooks which had significant diffusion in the context of Brazilian…

  16. Engineering Education in the Global Context: Education Proposal for the First Quarter of the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vega-González Luis Roberto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se plantea que para que las facultades y escuelas en las que se forman ingenieros en México se sintonicen con la intensa dinámica de cambios, es necesario que busquen nuevas opciones de enseñanza. La experiencia reciente muestra que estas instituciones están respondiendo sólo a las necesidades inmediatas que demanda la disponibilidad de nuevas tecnologías convergentes en el sector industrial. Es urgente realizar esfuerzos permanentes de planeación en el área de educación en ingeniería, teniendo en cuenta que la educación superior debe adaptarse de la mejor manera posible a los cambios económicos y sociales. Como marco de referencia se analiza la transición que se ha dado en los últimos años en la cultura organizacional y el formato general de educación en ingeniería impartido actualmente. Dentro del marco metodológico, se analizan las acciones que están tomando algunas universidades norteamericanas, australianas y asiáticas para la enseñanza de la ingeniería. Finalmente se presenta una propuesta integrada de la forma como se podrían preparar los nuevos ingenieros para enfrentar las demandas del siglo XXI. Las ideas presentadas tendrán que ser adaptadas agregando nuevas formas y esquemas, alternativos y/o complementarios, buscando que la formación de ingenieros en México se adapte mejor y continuamente a la dinámica de cambios global.

  17. Social Differences in Infant Mortality in 19th Century RostockA Demographic Analysis Based on Church Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Mühlichen

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the historical development of infant mortality in the Hanseatic city of Rostock, with a special focus on the question of how socio-economic factors influenced infant mortality in the early 19th century. Compared with the rest of Germany, the city exhibited an exceedingly low infant mortality level, in particular in the first third of the century. Our analyses show that the occupation of the father had a significant influence on the survival probability of a child in the first year of life in the early 19th century. Newborn children of fathers in lower ranked occupations exhibited a greater mortality risk in the first year of life than the offspring of fathers with occupations of higher status. The analyses are based on the registries of burials and baptisms of St. James’s Church (Jakobikirche in Rostock, which are largely preserved and much of which has been digitalised. Based on these individual data, this is the first event history analysis model conducted in the context of infant mortality in a German city in the 19th century. This article is also the first to reveal Rostock infant mortality rates for the entire 19th century according to sex, thus closing two research gaps.

  18. The Global Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: Insights from Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Zeckhauser

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AR limits the therapeutic options for treatment of infections, and increases the social benefit from disease prevention. Like an environmental resource, antimicrobials require stewardship. The effectiveness of an antimicrobial agent is a global public good. We argue for greater use of economic analysis as an input to policy discussion about AR, including for understanding the incentives underlying health behaviors that spawn AR, and to supplement other methods of tracing the evolution of AR internationally. We also discuss integrating antimicrobial stewardship into global health governance.The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AR limits the therapeutic options for treatment of infections, and increases the social benefit from disease prevention. Like an environmental resource, antimicrobials require stewardship. The effectiveness of an antimicrobial agent is a global public good. We argue for greater use of economic analysis as an input to policy discussion about AR, including for understanding the incentives underlying health behaviors that spawn AR, and to supplement other methods of tracing the evolution of AR internationally. We also discuss integrating antimicrobial stewardship into global health governance.

  19. Lattice Boltzmann methods for global linear instability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, José Miguel; Aguilar, Alfonso; Theofilis, Vassilis

    2016-11-01

    Modal global linear instability analysis is performed using, for the first time ever, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze incompressible flows with two and three inhomogeneous spatial directions. Four linearization models have been implemented in order to recover the linearized Navier-Stokes equations in the incompressible limit. Two of those models employ the single relaxation time and have been proposed previously in the literature as linearization of the collision operator of the lattice Boltzmann equation. Two additional models are derived herein for the first time by linearizing the local equilibrium probability distribution function. Instability analysis results are obtained in three benchmark problems, two in closed geometries and one in open flow, namely the square and cubic lid-driven cavity flow and flow in the wake of the circular cylinder. Comparisons with results delivered by classic spectral element methods verify the accuracy of the proposed new methodologies and point potential limitations particular to the LBM approach. The known issue of appearance of numerical instabilities when the SRT model is used in direct numerical simulations employing the LBM is shown to be reflected in a spurious global eigenmode when the SRT model is used in the instability analysis. Although this mode is absent in the multiple relaxation times model, other spurious instabilities can also arise and are documented herein. Areas of potential improvements in order to make the proposed methodology competitive with established approaches for global instability analysis are discussed.

  20. Globalização social: desafio do século XXI GLOBALIZATION SOCIAL: CHALLENGE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Carlos dos Santos

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A crítica de muitos à globalização é conseqüência dos rumos que ela está tomando. Embora a globalização seja um processo dinâmico em andamento, o seu avanço tem ocorrido de forma desequilibrada, gerando instabilidade política, econômica e social em várias regiões do planeta. O presente trabalho procura, de forma teórica, mostrar a falta da globalização social como um dos fatores que tem provocado desequilíbrio na dinâmica do processo de globalização. Pelo lado econômico, observa-se que a globalização ocorre de forma acelerada e já alcança os mais distantes pontos da face da Terra, ao passo que, pelo lado social, observa-se que a globalização está ausente em algumas regiões e, em outro tanto, ela ocorre de forma lenta e sem muito interesse. De nada vale os benefícios da globalização econômica se não existir a globalização social. Esse e o desafio do século XXI.The criticism of many of globalization is a consequence of directions it is taking. While globalization is a dynamic process in progress, its progress has occurred so unbalanced, creating politicalinstability, economic and social development in various regions of the planet. This paper demand, so theoretically, show the lack of social globalisation as one of the factors that have causedimbalance in the dynamics of the globalization process. On the economic side there is that globalization occurs so rapidly and have reached the most distant points of the face of theEarth, while the social side, there is that globalisation is absent in some regions, and in another both, it happens so slowly and without much interest. It is not worth the benefits of economicglobalization if there is the social globalisation. That and the challenge of the twenty-first century.

  1. A global optimization approach to multi-polarity sentiment analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinmiao Li

    Full Text Available Following the rapid development of social media, sentiment analysis has become an important social media mining technique. The performance of automatic sentiment analysis primarily depends on feature selection and sentiment classification. While information gain (IG and support vector machines (SVM are two important techniques, few studies have optimized both approaches in sentiment analysis. The effectiveness of applying a global optimization approach to sentiment analysis remains unclear. We propose a global optimization-based sentiment analysis (PSOGO-Senti approach to improve sentiment analysis with IG for feature selection and SVM as the learning engine. The PSOGO-Senti approach utilizes a particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain a global optimal combination of feature dimensions and parameters in the SVM. We evaluate the PSOGO-Senti model on two datasets from different fields. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti model can improve binary and multi-polarity Chinese sentiment analysis. We compared the optimal feature subset selected by PSOGO-Senti with the features in the sentiment dictionary. The results of this comparison indicated that PSOGO-Senti can effectively remove redundant and noisy features and can select a domain-specific feature subset with a higher-explanatory power for a particular sentiment analysis task. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti approach is effective and robust for sentiment analysis tasks in different domains. By comparing the improvements of two-polarity, three-polarity and five-polarity sentiment analysis results, we found that the five-polarity sentiment analysis delivered the largest improvement. The improvement of the two-polarity sentiment analysis was the smallest. We conclude that the PSOGO-Senti achieves higher improvement for a more complicated sentiment analysis task. We also compared the results of PSOGO-Senti with those of the genetic algorithm (GA and grid

  2. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kakuee, Omidreza, E-mail: okakuee@aeoi.org.ir [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A. [The Library, Museum and Documentation Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Parliament, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-02-15

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135 Degree-Sign while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K{sub {alpha}} X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  3. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakuee, Omidreza; Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad; Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A.

    2012-02-01

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135° while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K α X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  4. Sex determination from the calcaneus in a 20th century Greek population using discriminant function analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckmann, Tanya R; Orr, Kayla; Meek, Susan; Manolis, Sotiris K

    2015-12-01

    The skull and post-cranium have been used for the determination of sex for unknown human remains. However, in forensic cases where skeletal remains often exhibit postmortem damage and taphonomic changes the calcaneus may be used for the determination of sex as it is a preservationally favored bone. The goal of the present research was to derive discriminant function equations from the calcaneus for estimation of sex from a contemporary Greek population. Nine parameters were measured on 198 individuals (103 males and 95 females), ranging in age from 20 to 99 years old, from the University of Athens Human Skeletal Reference Collection. The statistical analyses showed that all variables were sexually dimorphic. Discriminant function score equations were generated for use in sex determination. The average accuracy of sex classification ranged from 70% to 90% for the univariate analysis, 82.9% to 87.5% for the direct method, and 86.2% for the stepwise method. Comparisons to other populations were made. Overall, the cross-validated accuracies ranged from 48.6% to 56.1% with males most often identified correctly and females most often misidentified. The calcaneus was shown to be useful for sex determination in the twentieth century Greek population.

  5. Global changes and animal phenotypic responses: melanin-based plumage redness of scops owls increased with temperature and rainfall during the last century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeotti, Paolo; Rubolini, Diego; Sacchi, Roberto; Fasola, Mauro

    2009-01-01

    The ecological effects of global climate changes include shifts of species' distribution and changes in migration strategies and phenotype. Colour polymorphism, which can be envisaged as a species' evolutionary response to alternating conditions or to a wide range of habitats, may be affected by climate changes as well. The scops owl (Otus scops) shows two main colour morphs, dark- and pale-reddish, as well as intermediate morphs. We investigated temporal trends in an index of plumage colour of Italian scops owls from museum collections (1870–2007). We found a significant increase in plumage redness over the last century, which was correlated with an increase in temperature and rainfall of the years before specimen collection. However, the temporal increase in plumage redness persisted after controlling for climatic variables, suggesting that other environmental factors could be involved. Our study indicates that ongoing climate changes might have either shifted the selective balance between colour morphs, or differentially affected migration and movement patterns of colour morphs. PMID:19411274

  6. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  7. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

  8. Global Analysis and Structural Performance of the Tubed Mega Frame

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Han

    2014-01-01

    The Tubed Mega Frame is a new structure concept for high-rise buildings which is developed by Tyréns. In order to study the structural performance as well as the efficiency of this new concept, a global analysis of the Tubed Mega Frame structure is performed using finite element analysis software ETABS. Besides, the lateral loads that should be applied on the structure according to different codes are also studied. From the design code study for wind loads and seismic design response spectrum...

  9. Simplifying multivariate survival analysis using global score test methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zain, Zakiyah; Aziz, Nazrina; Ahmad, Yuhaniz

    2015-12-01

    In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve multiple endpoints, and this situation further complicates the analysis of survival data. In the case of tumor patients, endpoints concerning survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For each patient, these endpoints are correlated, and the estimation of the correlation between two score statistics is fundamental in derivation of overall treatment advantage. In this paper, the bivariate survival analysis method using the global score test methodology is extended to multivariate setting.

  10. Hydrological Cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Kriegerova, Ida; Speranza, Antonio; 10.1029/2007JD009167

    2011-01-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961-2000 and for the 2161-2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature severa...

  11. An interactive system for analysis of global cloud imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodberry, Karen; Tanaka, Ken; Hendon, Harry; Salby, Murry

    1991-01-01

    Synoptic images of the global cloud pattern composited from six contemporaneous satellites provide an unprecedented view of the global cloud field. Having horizontal resolution of about 0.5 deg and temporal resolution of 3 h, the global cloud imagery (GCI) resolves most of the variability of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Although the GCI has these attractive features, the dense and 3D nature of that data make it a formidable volume of information to treat in a practical and efficient manner. An interactive image-analysis system (IAS) has been developed to investigate the space-time variability of global cloud behavior. In the IAS, data, hardware, and software are integrated into a single system providing a variety of space-time covariance analyses in a menu-driven format. Owing to its customized architecture and certain homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS calculates such quantities effectively. Many covariance statistics are derived from 3D data with interactive speed, allowing the user to interrogate the archive iteratively in a single session. The 3D nature of those analyses and the speed with which they are performed distinguish the IAS from conventional image processing of 2D data.

  12. Solar Neutrinos with Magnetic Moment Rates and Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pulido, J

    2002-01-01

    A statistical analysis of the solar neutrino data is presented assuming the solar neutrino deficit to be resolved by the resonant interaction of the neutrino magnetic moment with the solar magnetic field. Four field profiles are investigated, all exhibiting a rapid increase across the bottom of the convective zone, one of them closely following the requirements from recent solar physics investigations. First a 'rates only' analysis is performed whose best fits appear to be remarkably better than all fits from oscillations. A global analysis then follows with the corresponding best fits of a comparable quality to the LMA one. Despite the fact that the resonant spin flavour precession does not predict any day/night effect, the separate SuperKamiokande day and night data are included in the analysis in order to allow for a direct comparison with oscillation scenarios. Remarkably enough, the best fit for rates and global analysis which is compatible with most astrophysical bounds on the neutrino magnetic moment i...

  13. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro Jimenez, M.

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  14. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  15. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

    2016-12-01

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  16. Examination of the role of nuclear deterrence in the 21st century: a systems analysis approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martz, Joseph C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stevens, Patrice A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Branstetter, Linda [SNL; Hoover, Edward [SNL; O' Brien, Kevin [SNL; Slavin, Adam [SNL; Caswell, David [STANFORD UNIV

    2010-01-01

    Until very recently, an evaluation of US policy regarding deterrence and the role of its nuclear weapons arsenal as a deterrent has been largely absent in the public debate. With President's Obama embrace of a goal of a future world without nuclear weapons, issues of nuclear policy and deterrence have just recently risen to the forefront of policy discussions. The traditional role of US nuclear weapons-to deter the use of nuclear weapons by other states-endures, but is no longer unique nor even predominant. In an increasingly multi-polar world, the US now faces growing risks of nuclear weapons proliferation; the spread of weapons of mass destruction generally to non-state, substate and transnational actors; cyber, space, economic, environmental and resource threats along with the application of numerous other forms of 'soft power' in ways that are inimical to national security and to global stability. What concept of deterrence should the US seek to maintain in the 21st Century? That question remains fluid and central to the current debate. Recently there has been a renewed focusing of attention on the role of US nuclear weapons and a national discussion about what the underlying policy should be. In this environment, both the United States and Russia have committed to drastic reductions in their nuclear arsenals, while still maintaining forces sufficient to ensure unacceptable consequence in response to acts of aggression. Further, the declared nuclear powers have maintained that a limited nuclear arsenal continues to provide insurance against uncertain developments in a changing world. In this environment of US and Russian stockpile reductions, all declared nuclear states have reiterated the central role which nuclear weapons continue to provide for their supreme national security interests. Given this new environment and the challenges of the next several decades, how might the United States structure its policy and forces with regard to nuclear

  17. Global lateral buckling analysis of idealized subsea pipelines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘润; 刘文彬; 吴新利; 闫澍旺

    2014-01-01

    In order to avoid the curing effects of paraffin on the transport process and reduce the transport difficulty, usually high temperature and high pressure are used in the transportation of oil and gas. The differences of temperature and pressure cause additional stress along the pipeline, due to the constraint of the foundation soil, the additional stress can not release freely, when the additional stress is large enough to motivate the submarine pipelines buckle. In this work, the energy method is introduced to deduce the analytical solution which is suitable for the global buckling modes of idealized subsea pipeline and analyze the relationship between the critical buckling temperature, buckling length and amplitude under different high-order global lateral buckling modes. To obtain a consistent formulation of the problem, the principles of virtual displacements and the variation calculus for variable matching points are applied. The finite element method based on elasto-plastic theory is used to simulate the lateral global buckling of the pipelines under high temperature and pressure. The factors influencing the lateral buckling of pipelines are further studied. Based upon some actual engineering projects, the finite element results are compared with the analytical ones, and then the influence of thermal stress, the section rigidity of pipeline, the soil properties and the trigging force to the high order lateral buckling are discussed. The method of applying the small trigging force on pipeline is reliable in global buckling numerical analysis. In practice, increasing the section rigidity of a pipeline is an effective measure to improve the ability to resist the global buckling.

  18. Global tractography with embedded anatomical priors for quantitative connectivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alia eLemkaddem

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The main assumption of fiber-tracking algorithms is that fiber trajectories are represented by paths of highest diffusion, which is usually accomplished by following the principal diffusion directions estimated in every voxel from the measured diffusion MRI data. The state-of-the-art approaches, known as global tractography, reconstruct all the fiber tracts of the whole brain simultaneously by solving a global energy minimization problem. The tractograms obtained with these algorithms outperform any previous technique but, unfortunately, the price to pay is an increased computational cost which is not suitable in many practical settings, both in terms of time and memory requirements. Furthermore, existing global tractography algorithms suffer from an important shortcoming that is crucial in the context of brain connectivity analyses. As no anatomical priors are used during in the reconstruction process, the recovered fiber tracts are not guaranteed to connect cortical regions and, as a matter of fact, most of them stop prematurely in the white matter. This does not only unnecessarily slow down the estimation procedure and potentially biases any subsequent analysis but also, most importantly, prevents the de facto quantification of brain connectivity. In this work, we propose a novel approach for global tractography that is specifically designed for connectivity analysis applications by explicitly enforcing anatomical priors of the tracts in the optimization and considering the effective contribution of each of them, i.e. volume, to the acquired diffusion MRI image. We evaluated our approach on both a realistic diffusion MRI phantom and in-vivo data, and also compared its performance to existing tractography aloprithms.

  19. HPLC-APCI-MS analysis of triacylglycerols (TAGs) in historical pharmaceutical ointments from the eighteenth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saliu, Francesco; Modugno, Francesca; Orlandi, Marco; Colombini, Maria Perla

    2011-10-01

    The lipid fractions of residues from historical pharmaceutical ointments were analysed by reversed-phase liquid chromatography coupled with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization and mass spectrometer detection. The residues were contained in a series of historical apothecary jars, dating from the eighteenth century and conserved at the "Aboca Museum" in Sansepolcro (Arezzo, Italy) and at the pharmacy of the "Real Cartuja de Valldemossa" in Palma de Majorca (Spain). The analytical protocol was set up using a comparative study based on the evaluation of triacylglycerol (TAG) compositions in raw natural lipid materials and in laboratory-reproduced ointments. These ointments were prepared following pharmaceutical recipes reported in historical treatises and used as reference materials. The reference materials were also subjected to stress treatments in order to evaluate the modification occurring in the TAG profiles as an effect of ageing. TAGs were successfully detected in the reproduced formulations even in mixtures of up to ten ingredients and after harsh degradative treatments, and also in real historical samples. No particular interferences were detected from other non-lipid ingredients of the formulations. The TAG compositions detected in the historical ointments indicated a predominant use of olive oil and pig adipose material as lipid ingredients. The detection of a high level of tristearine and myristyl-palmitoyl-stearyl glycerol in two of the samples suggested the presence of a fatty material of a different origin (maybe a ruminant). On the basis of the positional isomer ratio, sn-PPO/sn-POP, it was possible to hypothesize an exclusive use of pig fat in one sample. We also evaluated the application of principal component analysis of TAG profiles as an approach for the multivariate statistical comparison of the reference and historical ointments.

  20. Drivers of wetland conversion: a global meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanneke van Asselen

    Full Text Available Meta-analysis of case studies has become an important tool for synthesizing case study findings in land change. Meta-analyses of deforestation, urbanization, desertification and change in shifting cultivation systems have been published. This present study adds to this literature, with an analysis of the proximate causes and underlying forces of wetland conversion at a global scale using two complementary approaches of systematic review. Firstly, a meta-analysis of 105 case-study papers describing wetland conversion was performed, showing that different combinations of multiple-factor proximate causes, and underlying forces, drive wetland conversion. Agricultural development has been the main proximate cause of wetland conversion, and economic growth and population density are the most frequently identified underlying forces. Secondly, to add a more quantitative component to the study, a logistic meta-regression analysis was performed to estimate the likelihood of wetland conversion worldwide, using globally-consistent biophysical and socioeconomic location factor maps. Significant factors explaining wetland conversion, in order of importance, are market influence, total wetland area (lower conversion probability, mean annual temperature and cropland or built-up area. The regression analyses results support the outcomes of the meta-analysis of the processes of conversion mentioned in the individual case studies. In other meta-analyses of land change, similar factors (e.g., agricultural development, population growth, market/economic factors are also identified as important causes of various types of land change (e.g., deforestation, desertification. Meta-analysis helps to identify commonalities across the various local case studies and identify which variables may lead to individual cases to behave differently. The meta-regression provides maps indicating the likelihood of wetland conversion worldwide based on the location factors that have

  1. Improved generalized cell mapping for global analysis of dynamical systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Three main parts of generalized cell mapping are improved for global analysis. A simple method, which is not based on the theory of digraphs, is presented to locate complete self-cycling sets that corre- spond to attractors and unstable invariant sets involving saddle, unstable periodic orbit and chaotic saddle. Refinement for complete self-cycling sets is developed to locate attractors and unstable in- variant sets with high degree of accuracy, which can start with a coarse cell structure. A nonuniformly interior-and-boundary sampling technique is used to make the refinement robust. For homeomorphic dissipative dynamical systems, a controlled boundary sampling technique is presented to make gen- eralized cell mapping method with refinement extremely accurate to obtain invariant sets. Recursive laws of group absorption probability and expected absorption time are introduced into generalized cell mapping, and then an optimal order for quantitative analysis of transient cells is established, which leads to the minimal computational work. The improved method is applied to four examples to show its effectiveness in global analysis of dynamical systems.

  2. Improved generalized cell mapping for global analysis of dynamical systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU HaiLin; XU JianXue

    2009-01-01

    Three main parts of generalized cell mapping are improved for global analysis. A simple method, whichis not based on the theory of digraphs, is presented to locate complete self-cycling sets that corre-spond to attractors and unstable invariant sets involving saddle, unstable periodic orbit and chaotic saddle. Refinement for complete self-cycling sets is developed to locate attractors and unstable in-variant sets with high degree of accuracy, which can start with a coarse cell structure. A nonuniformly interior-and-boundary sampling technique is used to make the refinement robust. For homeomorphic dissipative dynamical systems, a controlled boundary sampling technique is presented to make gen-eralized cell mapping method with refinement extremely accurate to obtain invariant sets. Recursive laws of group absorption probability and expected absorption time are introduced into generalized cell mapping, and then an optimal order for quantitative analysis of transient cells is established, which leads to the minimal computational work. The improved method is applied to four examples to show its effectiveness in global analysis of dynamical systems.

  3. A proteomic strategy for global analysis of plant protein complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Uma K; Xiong, Yi; McBride, Zachary; Kihara, Daisuke; Xie, Jun; Hall, Mark C; Szymanski, Daniel B

    2014-10-01

    Global analyses of protein complex assembly, composition, and location are needed to fully understand how cells coordinate diverse metabolic, mechanical, and developmental activities. The most common methods for proteome-wide analysis of protein complexes rely on affinity purification-mass spectrometry or yeast two-hybrid approaches. These methods are time consuming and are not suitable for many plant species that are refractory to transformation or genome-wide cloning of open reading frames. Here, we describe the proof of concept for a method allowing simultaneous global analysis of endogenous protein complexes that begins with intact leaves and combines chromatographic separation of extracts from subcellular fractions with quantitative label-free protein abundance profiling by liquid chromatography-coupled mass spectrometry. Applying this approach to the crude cytosolic fraction of Arabidopsis thaliana leaves using size exclusion chromatography, we identified hundreds of cytosolic proteins that appeared to exist as components of stable protein complexes. The reliability of the method was validated by protein immunoblot analysis and comparisons with published size exclusion chromatography data and the masses of known complexes. The method can be implemented with appropriate instrumentation, is applicable to any biological system, and has the potential to be further developed to characterize the composition of protein complexes and measure the dynamics of protein complex localization and assembly under different conditions.

  4. Indian plant germplasm on the global platter: an analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherry R Jacob

    importantly, about 50% of the Indian-origin accessions deposited in SGSV are traditional varieties or landraces with defined traits which form the backbone of any crop gene pool. This paper is also attempting to correlate the global data on Indian-origin germplasm with the national germplasm export profile. The analysis from this paper is discussed with the perspective of possible implications in the access and benefit sharing regime of both the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and the newly enforced Nagoya Protocol under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

  5. Indian plant germplasm on the global platter: an analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Sherry R; Tyagi, Vandana; Agrawal, Anuradha; Chakrabarty, Shyamal K; Tyagi, Rishi K

    2015-01-01

    , about 50% of the Indian-origin accessions deposited in SGSV are traditional varieties or landraces with defined traits which form the backbone of any crop gene pool. This paper is also attempting to correlate the global data on Indian-origin germplasm with the national germplasm export profile. The analysis from this paper is discussed with the perspective of possible implications in the access and benefit sharing regime of both the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and the newly enforced Nagoya Protocol under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

  6. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

  7. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen C Seto

    Full Text Available The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2 and 12,568,000 km(2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2 more likely.

  8. A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

    2007-02-02

    Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

  9. Las relaciones entre Globalización, Medio Ambiente y Salud: Retos para la enfermería en el siglo XXI The globalization, environment and health relationship: Challenges for nursing in the XXI Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Angel Vargas

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo surge de la necesidad de discutir los diversos impactos generados por el proceso de globalización en la medida que interfiere en las relaciones políticas, económicas, sociales, culturales, que se expresan en degradación ambiental y constituyen fuertes amenazas para la salud de individuos y comunidades a nivel local y global. Se propone estimular la reflexión a partir del análisis interdisciplinar del conocimiento producido sobre macro categorías como globalización, medio ambiente y salud y su articulación con el ejercicio profesional del enfermero. Metodológicamente se trata de una sistematización a partir de fuentes bibliográficas primarias y secundarias disponibles inclusive en bases indexadas. Podemos concluir que el ejercicio profesional de enfermería en el siglo XXI exige enfrentar el desafío de (redimensionar el cuidado, que debe ser entendido no como un acto y si como una actitud cuidadora y un compromiso con la defensa de la vida de ésta y las futuras generaciones.This article is a result of the necessity of discussing the many impacts that the globalization process, since it affects way the political, economical and social relations, that are expressed in the environmental degradation and becomes a strong threat to the health of individuals and communities in the local and global levels. Intends to stimulate a reflection from the interdisciplinary analysis of the developed knowledge about categories like globalization, environment and health, and their articulation with the professional nursing practice. In a methodological point of view, it is systematization from primary and secondary bibliographic sources including indexed ones. We conclude that the professional nursing practice in the XXI century demands confronting the challenge of resize the concept of nursing care, must be understood not as an act but as a caring actitude and a commitment to the protection of life of this and future's generations.

  10. An Analysis of Environmental Issues in 19th Century England Using the Writings of Charles Dickens

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, Ann Haley

    2008-01-01

    Charles Dickens lived during the best and worst of times in 19th century England. His writings were greatly influenced by the ongoing industrial revolution. He described abhorrent environmental conditions, inadequate sanitary practices, child abuse, and other social maladies of the times. By bringing Charles Dickens into the biology classroom,…

  11. Global pattern analysis and classification of dermoscopic images using textons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Maryam; Lee, Tim K.; McLean, David; Lui, Harvey; Atkins, M. Stella

    2012-02-01

    Detecting and classifying global dermoscopic patterns are crucial steps for detecting melanocytic lesions from non-melanocytic ones. An important stage of melanoma diagnosis uses pattern analysis methods such as 7-point check list, Menzies method etc. In this paper, we present a novel approach to investigate texture analysis and classification of 5 classes of global lesion patterns (reticular, globular, cobblestone, homogeneous, and parallel pattern) in dermoscopic images. Our statistical approach models the texture by the joint probability distribution of filter responses using a comprehensive set of the state of the art filter banks. This distribution is represented by the frequency histogram of filter response cluster centers called textons. We have also examined other two methods: Joint Distribution of Intensities (JDI) and Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (CRBM) to learn the pattern specific features to be used for textons. The classification performance is compared over the Leung and Malik filters (LM), Root Filter Set (RFS), Maximum Response Filters (MR8), Schmid, Laws and our proposed filter set as well as CRBM and JDI. We analyzed 375 images of the 5 classes of the patterns. Our experiments show that the joint distribution of color (JDC) in the L*a*b* color space outperforms the other color spaces with a correct classification rate of 86.8%.

  12. A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

    2016-11-15

    Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions.

  13. Global point signature for shape analysis of carpal bones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, Abhijit J.; Leahy, Richard M.; Wise, Barton L.; Lane, Nancy E.; Badawi, Ramsey D.; Joshi, Anand A.

    2014-02-01

    We present a method based on spectral theory for the shape analysis of carpal bones of the human wrist. We represent the cortical surface of the carpal bone in a coordinate system based on the eigensystem of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. We employ a metric—global point signature (GPS)—that exploits the scale and isometric invariance of eigenfunctions to quantify overall bone shape. We use a fast finite-element-method to compute the GPS metric. We capitalize upon the properties of GPS representation—such as stability, a standard Euclidean (ℓ2) metric definition, and invariance to scaling, translation and rotation—to perform shape analysis of the carpal bones of ten women and ten men from a publicly-available database. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed GPS representation to provide a means for comparing shapes of the carpal bones across populations.

  14. X-ray fluorescence analysis of yellow pigments in altarpieces by Valencian artists of the XV and XVI centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrero, J. L.; Roldán, C.; Ardid, M.; Navarro, E.

    1999-02-01

    XRF analysis has allowed a quick and precise detection and identification of the inorganic elements that compose the yellow pigments in altarpieces of the XV and XVI centuries painted by the Valencian artists Miguel Alcañiz, Vicente Macip, Juan de Juanes, Hernando Yáñez de la Almedina and Hernando Llanos. The analyses have been carried out with an XRF portable system that consists of a tube of X-rays and detectors of Si(Li) and cadmium zinc telluride. This system has enabled a non-aggressive and non-destructive analysis of many pieces at the Museo de Bellas Artes of Valencia (Spain). Among the yellow pigments we have identified a pigment composed by lead and tin oxides named lead-tin yellow (Pb 2SnO 4), frequently used in European paintings from the XIV century until the first half of the XVIII century. This fact demonstrates the influence of elements and pictorial techniques from Europe to the region of Valencia.

  15. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    vulnerable to climate change impacts. Here we focus on tipping elements within the physical / biological system. In the following two sections, we briefly highlight some of our methodological research regarding global mean precipitation and regional climate change. These methodological developments provided the underpinning for our subsequent analysis of individual large-scale climate impacts, as e.g. mass losses of the Greenland ice sheet, the release of greenhouse gases by the thawing of permafrost regions or the threat of coral reefs by high ocean temperatures.

  16. Towards More Efficient and Effective Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Gupta, Hoshin

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an important paradigm in the context of model development and application. There are a variety of approaches towards sensitivity analysis that formally describe different "intuitive" understandings of the sensitivity of a single or multiple model responses to different factors such as model parameters or forcings. These approaches are based on different philosophies and theoretical definitions of sensitivity and range from simple local derivatives to rigorous Sobol-type analysis-of-variance approaches. In general, different SA methods focus and identify different properties of the model response and may lead to different, sometimes even conflicting conclusions about the underlying sensitivities. This presentation revisits the theoretical basis for sensitivity analysis, critically evaluates the existing approaches in the literature, and demonstrates their shortcomings through simple examples. Important properties of response surfaces that are associated with the understanding and interpretation of sensitivities are outlined. A new approach towards global sensitivity analysis is developed that attempts to encompass the important, sensitivity-related properties of response surfaces. Preliminary results show that the new approach is superior to the standard approaches in the literature in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.

  17. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  18. Analysis of primary education in the province of Badajoz during the nineteenth century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa FRAILE PRIETO

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The nineteenth century was a crucial moment for the development of primary education in the Spanish State. Public education becomes stable alongside the political and social vicissitudes of the country, establishing a solid foundation that is essential to understand the current organizational structures, as well as some of their burdens. From the data collected in previous publications, this research develops information relating to the province of Badajoz from 1957 to 1900, as a particular case study to present an overview of what was the primary education in the XIX century. Starting on these data, we can draw some conclusions about the demographic and socio-political distribution of public elementary schools at this turning point for the Spanish education.

  19. Global Analysis of Several Bands of the CF_4 Molecule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos, Mickaël; Gruson, Océane; Boudon, Vincent; Georges, Robert; Pirali, Olivier; Asselin, Pierre

    2016-06-01

    Carbon tetrafluoride is a powerful greenhouse gas, mainly of anthropogenic origin. Its absorption spectrum is, however, still badly modeled, especially for hot bands in the strongly absorbing ν_3 region. To overcome this problem, we have undertaken a systematic study of all the lower rovibrational transitions of this molecule. In particular, new far-infrared spectra recorded at the SOLEIL Synchrotron facility give access to bands implying the ``forbidden'' modes ν_1 and ν_2 which have only been investigated previously thanks to stimulated Raman spectroscopy, that is with a lower accuracy and much less data. Combined with the previous analyses performed in our group, we thus report here a new global fit of line positions of CF_4 by considering several transitions altogether: ν_2, 2ν_2-ν_2, ν_4, 2ν_4, ν_3 and ν_3-2ν_2. This gives a consistent set of molecular parameters that will be of great help for the analysis of hot bands like ν_3+ν_2-ν_2. A second separate global fit including the ν_1, ν_1-ν_4 and 2ν_1-ν_1 bands will also be presented. V. Boudon, D. Bermejo, R. Z. Martinez, J. Raman Spectrosc. 44, 731?738 (2013). V. Boudon, J. Mitchell, A. Domanskaya, C. Maul, R; Georges, A. Benidar, W. G. Harter, Mol. Phys. 109, 17--18 (2011)

  20. Global stability analysis of turbulent 3D wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigas, Georgios; Sipp, Denis; Juniper, Matthew

    2015-11-01

    At low Reynolds numbers, corresponding to laminar and transitional regimes, hydrodynamic stability theory has aided the understanding of the dynamics of bluff body wake-flows and the application of effective control strategies. However, flows of fundamental importance to many industries, in particular the transport industry, involve high Reynolds numbers and turbulent wakes. Despite their turbulence, such wake flows exhibit organisation which is manifested as coherent structures. Recent work has shown that the turbulent coherent structures retain the shape of the symmetry-breaking laminar instabilities and only those manifest as large-scale structures in the near wake (Rigas et al., JFM vol. 750:R5 2014, JFM vol. 778:R2 2015). Based on the findings of the persistence of the laminar instabilities at high Reynolds numbers, we investigate the global stability characteristics of a turbulent wake generated behind a bluff three-dimensional axisymmetric body. We perform a linear global stability analysis on the experimentally obtained mean flow and we recover the dynamic characteristics and spatial structure of the coherent structures, which are linked to the transitional instabilities. A detailed comparison of the predictions with the experimental measurements will be provided.

  1. Revisiting global body politics in Nepal: A reflexive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harcourt, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    Using the example of a human rights training in Nepal, the author looks at global body politics in a reflexive piece on her engagement in development practices that translate western feminist ideas on gender inequality and empowerment via UN human rights policies into non-western contexts. It firsts look at postcolonial and critical literature on feminist engagement in gender and development processes including a discussion on the concept of global body politics before examining briefly the framing of gender-based violence in Nepal. The core of the paper is a reflexive analysis and interrogation of the training in Nepal in order to bring out the tensions and contradictions around western developmental, feminist and human rights discourses. The discussion looks at how difficult it is for feminist, human rights and developmental discourses and practices to unmoor themselves from the notion of the 'expert' and those who do the rights/work/righting rights training and those who are perennially seen as requiring training. The conclusion reflects on possibilities of other epistemic practices found in intercultural dialogues.

  2. A Comparative Study: Globality versus Locality for Graph Construction in Discriminant Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Yang

    2014-01-01

    Discriminant Analysis (GmGcDA just based on globality alone, GmLcDA, and LmGcDA, we suggest that the joint of locally constructed intraclass and globally constructed interclass graphs is more discriminant.

  3. GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) version 1.1 (NODC Accession 0001644)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a cooperative effort to coordinate global synthesis projects funded through NOAA/DOE and NSF as part of the Joint...

  4. Global/local methods research using a common structural analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Ransom, Jonathan B.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.; Thompson, Danniella M.

    1991-01-01

    Methodologies for global/local stress analysis are described including both two- and three-dimensional analysis methods. These methods are being developed within a common structural analysis framework. Representative structural analysis problems are presented to demonstrate the global/local methodologies being developed.

  5. World-Systems Analysis, Globalization, and Incorporated Comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillip McMichael

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available When Immanuel Wallerstein (1974 subverted the mid-1970s social science scene with his concept of the ‘world-system,’ development, the ‘master’ concept of social theory, suffered a fatal blow. Wallerstein’s critique of development emphasized its misapplication as a national strategy in a hierarchical world where only some states can ‘succeed.’ Wallerstein’s path-breaking epistemological challenge to the modernization paradigm reformulated the unit of analysis of development from the nation-state to the ‘world-system.’ To be sure, the past three decades have seen reformulations, coined to address the failures of the development enterprise: frombasic needs, through participation in the world market, globalization, to local sustainability. But development, the organizing myth of our age, has never recovered.

  6. Entropy-complexity analysis in some globally-coupled systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrisment, Antoine M.; Firpo, Marie-Christine

    2016-10-01

    Globally-coupled N-body systems are well known to possess an intricate dynamics. When N is large, collective effects may drastically lower the effective dimension of the dynamics breaking the conditions on ergodicity necessary for the applicability of statistical mechanics. These problems are here illustrated and discussed through an entropy-complexity analysis of the repulsive Hamiltonian mean-field model. Using a Poincaré section of the mean-field time series provides a natural sampling time in the entropy-complexity treatment. This approach is shown to single-out the out-of-equilibrium dynamical features and to uncover a transition of the system dynamics from low-energy non-Boltzmann quasi-stationary states to high-energy stochastic-like behavior.

  7. Higgs Boson Cross Section from CTEQ-TEA Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2013-01-01

    We study the uncertainties of the Higgs boson production cross section through the gluon fusion subprocess at the LHC (with $\\sqrt s=7, 8$ and $14$ TeV) arising from the uncertainties of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) and of the value of the strong coupling constant $\\alpha_s(M_Z)$. These uncertainties are computed by two complementary approaches, based on the Hessian and the Lagrange Multiplier methods within the CTEQ-TEA global analysis framework. We find that their predictions for the Higgs boson cross section are in good agreement. Furthermore, the result of the Lagrange Multiplier method supports the prescriptions we have previously provided for using the Hessian method to calculate the combined PDF and $\\alpha_s$ uncertainties, and to estimate the uncertainties at the $68%$ confidence level by scaling them from the 90% confidence level.

  8. Analysis of Diversity-Preserving Mechanisms for Global Exploration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedrich, Tobias; Oliveto, Pietro S.; Sudholt, Dirk;

    2009-01-01

    Maintaining diversity is important for the performance of evolutionary algorithms. Diversity-preserving mechanisms can enhance global exploration of the search space and enable crossover to find dissimilar individuals for recombination. We focus on the global exploration capabilities of mutation-...

  9. Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD) derived from Remote Sensing in Support of Food Security in the Twenty-first Century: Current Achievements and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teluguntla, Pardhasaradhi G.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Xiong, Jun N.; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Giri, Chandra; Milesi, Cristina; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Congalton, Russ; Tilton, James; Sankey, Temuulen Tsagaan; Massey, Richard; Phalke, Aparna; Yadav, Kamini

    2015-01-01

    to biofuels (Bindraban et al., 2009), limited water resources for irrigation expansion (Turral et al., 2009), limits on agricultural intensifications, loss of croplands to urbanization (Khan and Hanjra, 2008), increasing meat consumption (and associated demands on land and water) (Vinnari and Tapio, 2009), environmental infeasibility for cropland expansion (Gordon et al., 2009), and changing climate have all put pressure on our continued ability to sustain global food security in the twenty-first century. So, how does the World continue to meet its food and nutrition needs?. Solutions may come from bio-technology and precision farming, however developments in these fields are not currently moving at rates that will ensure global food security over next few decades. Further, there is a need for careful consideration of possible harmful effects of bio-technology. We should not be looking back 30– 50 years from now, like we have been looking back now at many mistakes made during the green revolution. During the green revolution the focus was only on getting more yield per unit area. Little thought was put about serious damage done to our natural environments, water resources, and human health as a result of detrimental factors such as uncontrolled use of herbicides-pesticides-nutrients, drastic groundwater mining, and salinization of fertile soils due to over irrigation. Currently, there is talk of a “second green revolution” or even an “ever green revolution”, but clear ideas on what these terms actually mean are still debated and are evolving. One of the biggest issues that are not given adequate focus is the use of large quantities of water for food production. Indeed, an overwhelming proportion (60-90%) of all human water use in India goes for producing their food (Falkenmark, M., & Rockström, 2006). But such intensive water use for food production is no longer tenable due to increasing pressure for water use alternatives such as increasing urbanization

  10. Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Bo; Cheng, Lihong

    2017-01-01

    The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. PMID:28081201

  11. Iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" in Books of Hours of 15th and 16th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsa Guyot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the light of biblical exegesis and medieval literature, this paper proposes an iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" as it appears in Books of Hours. From the fifteenth to the sixteenth century, pictorial representations of this Old Testament scene experienced a boom justified by the underlying eroticism of this episode in which David surprises Bathsheba as she is performing a ritual purification bath. The illuminations that we study reflect the encounter between the Christian tradition and humanistic culture.

  12. Global analysis of small molecule binding to related protein targets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A Kruger

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on the integration of pharmacological data and homology information for a large scale analysis of small molecule binding to related targets. Differences in small molecule binding have been assessed for curated pairs of human to rat orthologs and also for recently diverged human paralogs. Our analysis shows that in general, small molecule binding is conserved for pairs of human to rat orthologs. Using statistical tests, we identified a small number of cases where small molecule binding is different between human and rat, some of which had previously been reported in the literature. Knowledge of species specific pharmacology can be advantageous for drug discovery, where rats are frequently used as a model system. For human paralogs, we demonstrate a global correlation between sequence identity and the binding of small molecules with equivalent affinity. Our findings provide an initial general model relating small molecule binding and sequence divergence, containing the foundations for a general model to anticipate and predict within-target-family selectivity.

  13. Multifractal detrended moving average analysis of global temperature records

    CERN Document Server

    Mali, Provash

    2015-01-01

    Long-range correlation and multifractal nature of the global monthly mean temperature anomaly time series over the period 1850-2012 are studied in terms of the multifractal detrended moving average (MFDMA) method. We try to address the source(s) of multifractality in the time series by comparing the results derived from the actual series with those from a set of shuffled and surrogate series. It is seen that the newly developed MFDMA method predicts a multifractal structure of the temperature anomaly time series that is more or less similar to that observed by other multifractal methods. In our analysis the major contribution of multifractality in the temperature records is found to be stemmed from long-range temporal correlation among the measurements, however the contribution of fat-tail distribution function of the records is not negligible. The results of the MFDMA analysis, which are found to depend upon the location of the detrending window, tend towards the observations of the multifractal detrended fl...

  14. UNEARTHING GLOBAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION LEVELS AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION AS A MEDIATING FACTOR IN GLOBAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshny Unnikrishnan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study is a result of the author’s inquisition to unearth the current values of Global Financial Inclusion and its relationship with economic growth measured by Gross Domestic product(GDP and human development measured by United Nations Human Development Index (HDI. The Financial Inclusion (FI levels are measured using Index for Financial Inclusion .The relationship between GDP and HDI with FI as mediator, using multiple regression, is validated on a global level based on data of 162 countries for the year 2011. An overall global mediation analysis is undertaken to establish Financial Inclusion as a mediating factor and partial mediation on human development is validated. The study is valid and unique in the global context of income inequality prevailing in developed, developing and underdeveloped countries as it validates the argument that an impressive GDP performance does not ensure equity in economic growth.

  15. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    Infrastructure and the broader GEOSS architecture. Of specific interest to this session is the work on geospatial workflows and geo-processing and data discovery and access. CCIP demonstrates standards-based interoperability between geospatial applications in the service of Climate Change analysis. CCIP is planned to be a yearly exercise. It consists of a network of online data services (WCS, WFS, SOS), analysis services (WPS, WCPS, WMS), and clients that exercise those services. In 2009, CCIP focuses on Australia, and the initial application of existing OGC services to climate studies. The results of the 2009 CCIP will serve as requirements for more complex geo-processing services to be developed for CCIP 2010. The benefits of CCIP include accelerating the implementation of the GCOS, and building confidence that implementations using multi-vendor interoperable technologies can help resolve vexing climate change questions. AIP-2: Architecture Implementation Pilot, Phase 2 CCIP: Climate Challenge Integration Plugfest GEO: Group on Earth Observations GEOSS: Global Earth Observing System of Systems GCOS: Global Climate Observing System OGC: Open Geospatial Consortium SOS: Sensor Observation Service WCS: Web Coverage Service WCPS: Web Coverage Processing Service WFS: Web Feature Service WMS: Web Mapping Service

  16. Analysis of the development of global capture fishery and aquaculture production

    OpenAIRE

    Algayd, Abdelhamid Alhadi

    2011-01-01

    Global production from capture fisheries and aquaculture and the food fish supply is currently the highest on record and remains very significant for global food security. This study is focused on the contribution of the aquaculture to the global production of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, and other aquatic animals in the short-time observation from 2000- 2008. The aim of the presented PhD. Thesis title "Analysis of The Development of Global Capture Fish and Aquaculture Production (200-2008)" ...

  17. Reflection terahertz time-domain imaging for analysis of an 18th century neoclassical easel painting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dandolo, Corinna Ludovica Koch; Filtenborg, Troels; Fukunaga, Kaori;

    2015-01-01

    , a real hidden portraiton an easel painting has been imaged by THz-TDI, with an unexpected richness of detail. THz C- andB-scans have been compared with images obtained by x-ray radiography and invasive cross-sectional imaging,leading to a deeper understanding of the strengths and limitations......Terahertz time-domain imaging (THz-TDI) has been applied for imaging a hidden portrait and other subsurfacecomposition layers of an 18th century (18C) easel painting by Nicolai Abildgaard, the most important 18CDanish neoclassical painter of historical and mythological subjects. For the first time...... in practical applications of the technique. Interfaces between layers ofthe painting have been successfully imaged, contributing substantially to the understanding of the structure of the painting....

  18. PIXE and IL analysis of an archeologically problematic XIII century ceramic production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchiatti, Alessandro, E-mail: alessandro.zucchiatti@uam.es [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Jiménez-Rey, David [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión CIEMAT, E06.P2.09, Madrid (Spain); Climent-Font, Aurelio [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Departamento di Física Aplicada, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid (Spain); Martina, Silvia [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Universitá degli Studi di Torino, Turin (Italy); Faieta, Rosangela [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Universitá della Tuscia, Viterbo (Italy); Maggi, Marco [Musei Vaticani, Ufficio del Conservatore, Rome (Italy); Giuntini, Lorenzo; Calusi, Silvia [INFN – Laboratorio di tecniche Nucleari per i Beni Culturali, Florence (Italy)

    2015-11-15

    At the beginning of the XIII century the archaeologists have found evidence of a singular, transitional, pottery technique limited to a small area around western Liguria (Northwest of Italy). Known as Ligurian Protomajolica (PML), it shows in the same ceramic body and on the same surface white slip and enamel together, addressing questions about the technical reasons of this unusual combination, its origin and evolution. To integrate previous morphological and mineralogical studies, we have analysed by particle induced X-ray emission (also with mapping) and ionoluminescence (IL) the ceramic body, slip and glaze composition of 56 samples, of which 25 PML’s. We have identified some PML’s compositional features which are distinct from those of other coeval or later productions from the same area. A few PML imitations are described. A plausible explanation of the origin of the PML’s, based both on the archaeometric results and the archaeological and historical knowledge, is presented.

  19. Fire analysis in the eighteenth century: Herman Boerhaave and scepticism about the elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, John C

    2014-11-01

    In the eighteenth century, many chemists asserted that chemical operations could not decompose a substance into its natural, constituent elements or principles. One such chemist was Herman Boerhaave (1668-1738), who claimed, following the work of Robert Boyle and Joan Baptista van Helmont, that examples of these alleged analyses were, in fact, not reductions of a body into elements, but rather the rearrangement of its particles by the fire. Since we cannot observe the shape and arrangement of particles directly, he reasoned, any claim regarding the elemental status of a substance was purely speculative and inadmissible in his chemistry. As a result, Boerhaave devised a system of chemistry which, in effect, accepted no elemental substances and which focused on understanding how the chemist's 'instruments,' including fire and chemical menstrua, effected changes in matter. I conclude by showing how Boerhaave's conclusion had ramifications for later developments in chemistry, especially those of the French Stahlians and of Antione Lavoisier.

  20. Global secretome analysis identifies novel mediators of bone metastasis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mario Andres Blanco; Gary LeRoy; Zia Khan; Ma(s)a Ale(c)kovi(c); Barry M Zee; Benjamin A Garcia; Yibin Kang

    2012-01-01

    Bone is the one of the most common sites of distant metastasis of solid tumors.Secreted proteins are known to influence pathological interactions between metastatic cancer cells and the bone stroma.To comprehensively profile secreted proteins associated with bone metastasis,we used quantitative and non-quantitative mass spectrometry to globally analyze the secretomes of nine cell lines of varying bone metastatic ability from multiple species and cancer types.By comparing the secretomes of parental cells and their bone metastatic derivatives,we identified the secreted proteins that were uniquely associated with bone metastasis in these cell lines.We then incorporated bioinformatic analyses of large clinical metastasis datasets to obtain a list of candidate novel bone metastasis proteins of several functional classes that were strongly associated with both clinical and experimental bone metastasis.Functional validation of selected proteins indicated that in vivo bone metastasis can be promoted by high expression of (1) the salivary cystatins CST1,CST2,and CST4; (2) the plasminogen activators PLAT and PLAU; or (3) the collagen functionality proteins PLOD2 and COL6A1.Overall,our study has uncovered several new secreted mediators of bone metastasis and therefore demonstrated that secretome analysis is a powerful method for identification of novel biomarkers and candidate therapeutic targets.

  1. Nitrogen Additions and Microbial Biomass: A Global Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treseder, K. K.

    2008-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) enrichment is an element of global change that could influence the growth and abundance of many organisms. In this meta-analysis, I synthesized responses of microbial biomass to N additions in 82 published field studies. I hypothesized that the biomass of fungi, bacteria, or the microbial community as a whole would be altered under N additions. I also predicted that changes in biomass would parallel changes in soil CO2 emissions. Microbial biomass declined 15% on average under N fertilization, but fungi and bacteria were not significantly altered in studies that examined each group separately. Moreover, declines in abundance of microbes and fungi were more evident in studies of longer durations and with higher total amounts of N added. In addition, responses of microbial biomass to N fertilization were significantly correlated with responses of soil CO2 emissions. There were no significant effects of biomes, fertilizer types, ambient N deposition rates, or methods of measuring biomass. Altogether, these results suggest that N enrichment could reduce microbial biomass in many ecosystems, with corresponding declines in soil CO2 emissions.

  2. The CT14 Global Analysis of Quantum Chromodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Guzzi, Marco; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C P

    2015-01-01

    We present new parton distribution functions (PDFs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) from the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of quantum chromodynamics. These differ from previous CT PDFs in several respects, including the use of data from LHC experiments and the new D0 charged lepton rapidity asymmetry data, as well as the use of more flexible parametrization of PDFs that, in particular, allows a better fit to different combinations of quark flavors. Predictions for important LHC processes, especially Higgs boson production at 13 TeV, are presented. These CT14 PDFs include a central set and error sets in the Hessian representation. For completeness, we also present the CT14 PDFs determined at the leading order (LO) and the next-to-leading order (NLO) in QCD. Besides these general-purpose PDF sets, we provide a series of (N)NLO sets with various $\\alpha_s$ values and additional sets in heavy-quark scheme with up to 3, 4, and 6 active flavors.

  3. Dynamic global sensitivity analysis in bioreactor networks for bioethanol production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, M P; Estrada, V; Di Maggio, J; Hoch, P M

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was performed for three different dynamic bioreactor models of increasing complexity: a fermenter for bioethanol production, a bioreactors network, where two types of bioreactors were considered: aerobic for biomass production and anaerobic for bioethanol production and a co-fermenter bioreactor, to identify the parameters that most contribute to uncertainty in model outputs. Sobol's method was used to calculate time profiles for sensitivity indices. Numerical results have shown the time-variant influence of uncertain parameters on model variables. Most influential model parameters have been determined. For the model of the bioethanol fermenter, μmax (maximum growth rate) and Ks (half-saturation constant) are the parameters with largest contribution to model variables uncertainty; in the bioreactors network, the most influential parameter is μmax,1 (maximum growth rate in bioreactor 1); whereas λ (glucose-to-total sugars concentration ratio in the feed) is the most influential parameter over all model variables in the co-fermentation bioreactor.

  4. A distributed analysis of Human impact on global sediment dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding riverine sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. Ever increasing human activity during the Anthropocene have affected sediment dynamics in two major ways: (1) an increase is hillslope erosion due to agriculture, deforestation and landscape engineering and (2) trapping of sediment in dams and other man-made reservoirs. The intensity and dynamics between these man-made factors vary widely across the globe and in time and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment flux and water discharge model (WBMsed) to compare a pristine (without human input) and disturbed (with human input) simulations. Using these 50 year simulations we will show and discuss the complex spatial and temporal patterns of human effect on riverine sediment flux and water discharge.

  5. Global methaemoglobinaemia research output (1940-2013): a bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zyoud, Sa'ed H; Al-Jabi, Samah W; Sweileh, Waleed M; Al-Khalil, Suleiman; Alqub, Malik; Awang, Rahmat

    2015-01-01

    Bibliometric studies, which involve the use of statistical methods, are increasingly being used for research assessment. A bibliometric analysis was conducted to evaluate the publication pattern of methaemoglobinaemia research output at the global level based on the Scopus database. We analysed selected documents with "methemoglobinemia", or "methaemoglobinaemia" as a part of the title and reported the following parameters: trends of publication output, country of publication, journal pattern, collaborative measures, citations pattern, and institute productivity. A total of 1770 articles were published worldwide. The time trend for the number of articles showed an increase after 2000. The highest number of articles related to methaemoglobinaemia was from the USA (24.8 %), followed distantly by the UK (4.5 %), India (3.7 %), and France (3.7 %). No data related to methaemoglobinaemia were published from 152 countries. The total number of citations at the date of data collection was 10,080, with an average of 5.7 citations per document. The USA and UK had the highest h-index of 31 and 14, respectively, and six countries had an h-index of 9-14. It is notable that Canada was ranked eighth in the number of publications but fourth in h-index and India was ranked third in the number of publications but eighth in h-index. Furthermore, Canada produced the most internationally collaborated papers out of the total number of publications for each country (16.1 %), followed by the UK (13.9 %). This bibliometric analysis provides data contributing to a better understanding of the methaemoglobinaemia research field. The number of publications on methaemoglobinaemia increased significantly after 2000. The USA was the most productive country as measured by total publications. The USA and UK achieved the highest h-index in the field of methaemoglobinaemia research, signifying a higher quality of research than other countries.

  6. Global Analysis of Heat Shock Response in Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chhabra, S.R.; He, Q.; Huang, K.H.; Gaucher, S.P.; Alm, E.J.; He,Z.; Hadi, M.Z.; Hazen, T.C.; Wall, J.D.; Zhou, J.; Arkin, A.P.; Singh, A.K.

    2005-09-16

    Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough belongs to a class ofsulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and is found ubiquitously in nature.Given the importance of SRB-mediated reduction for bioremediation ofmetal ion contaminants, ongoing research on D. vulgaris has been in thedirection of elucidating regulatory mechanisms for this organism under avariety of stress conditions. This work presents a global view of thisorganism's response to elevated growth temperature using whole-celltranscriptomics and proteomics tools. Transcriptional response (1.7-foldchange or greater; Z>1.5) ranged from 1,135 genes at 15 min to 1,463genes at 120 min for a temperature up-shift of 13oC from a growthtemperature of 37oC for this organism and suggested both direct andindirect modes of heat sensing. Clusters of orthologous group categoriesthat were significantly affected included posttranslationalmodifications; protein turnover and chaperones (up-regulated); energyproduction and conversion (down-regulated), nucleotide transport,metabolism (down-regulated), and translation; ribosomal structure; andbiogenesis (down-regulated). Analysis of the genome sequence revealed thepresence of features of both negative and positive regulation whichincluded the CIRCE element and promoter sequences corresponding to thealternate sigma factors ?32 and ?54. While mechanisms of heat shockcontrol for some genes appeared to coincide with those established forEscherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis, the presence of unique controlschemes for several other genes was also evident. Analysis of proteinexpression levels using differential in-gel electrophoresis suggestedgood agreement with transcriptional profiles of several heat shockproteins, including DnaK (DVU0811), HtpG (DVU2643), HtrA (DVU1468), andAhpC (DVU2247). The proteomics study also suggested the possibility ofposttranslational modifications in the chaperones DnaK, AhpC, GroES(DVU1977), and GroEL (DVU1976) and also several periplasmic ABCtransporters.

  7. An Analysis of Globalization and Higher Education in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arokiasamy, Anantha Raj A.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to examine the impact of globalization on private higher education in Malaysia. The impact of globalization and the development of knowledge-based economy have caused much dramatic change to the character and functions of higher education in Malaysia. The major trend is the reforming and restructuring of private higher education in…

  8. New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century. Supporting Research and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    to the UN High Commission of Refugees ( UNHCR ) globally are in sub- Saharan Africa, the largest regional percentage by far. UNHCR , The State of the...economic growth. Capabilities could be startling by today’s standards. If governments permit, genetic engi- neering will allow sex and specific trait...technical ease with which parents may choose the sex , and other traits, of their children. Similar ethical—and practical—problems will also inhere in the use

  9. MODEL OF STRUCTURAL-FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS OF VISUALS IN RUSSIAN ABC BOOKS AND PRIMERS OF LATE XIX - EARLY XX CENTURIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan I. Teterin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Today the prevalence of visual information coding determines the changes in the text and extra-textual components of the textbook, the problem affects the placement and number of illustrative material, defines the relationship and interaction of text and image information, focuses on new forms of organization of the learning process. The movement of humanity from the dominant culture of text oriented logos or the spread and adoption of visual forms of information broadcast began at the turn of the XIX and XX centuries. It was during this period in the academic literature visual components acquired independent didactic value. I began to develop a holistic visual range of a school textbook.The visual tutorial series has been the subject of special study for many scientific disciplines. The overall goal of our research is to answer the question. What didactic features were inherent in visual range of textbooks for initial literacy in Russia in the second half of XIX - early XX century, why, how, and how they changed. In this article, we will focus on the issue of allocation of structural components of the visual range of the spectrum and the functions they perform.Offering a model of this analysis, we relied on the development problems of the textbook functions V. Krajewski, V. Beilinson, I. Lerner, V. Bespal'ko and characteristics of the major structural components of the textbook, the proposed D. Zuev, A. Sochor, J. Mickey and others. 

  10. Global analysis of Ivlev's type predator-prey dynamic systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Hai-bin

    2007-01-01

    Consider a class of Ivlev's type predator-prey dynamic systems with prey and predator both having linear density restricts. By using the qualitative methods of ODE,the global stability of positive equilibrium and existence and uniqueness of non-small amplitude stable limit cycle are obtained. Especially under certain conditions, it shows that existence and uniqueness of non-small amplitude stable limit cycle is equivalent to the local un-stability of positive equilibrium and the local stability of positive equilibrium implies its global stability. That is to say, the global dynamic of the system is entirely determined by the local stability of the positive equilibrium.

  11. Analysis of Improvement on Human Resource Management within Chinese Enterprises in Economic Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihui Xie

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analysis of improvement on human resource management within Chinese enterprises in economic globalization. China’s entry into WTO has accelerated the economic globalization pace of Chinese enterprises and Chinese economy is further integrated with the global economy in a global scope. Human resource is what economic globalization of Chinese enterprises relies on, the first resource for China to participate in the international competition and is also the key to make effective use of other resources. Nevertheless, under the background of economic globalization, human resource management in Chinese enterprises is still faced up with quite a lot of challenges and problems. In order to establish a human resource management concept of globalization and set up a human resource management mechanism to respond to the economic globalization, this study makes a discussion and proposes management method and improvement measures for reference.

  12. Global stability analysis on a class of cellular neural networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Yi

    2001-01-01

    [1]Chua, L. O., Yang, L., Cellular neural networks: Theory, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1988, (10): 1257.[2]Chua, L. O., Yang, L., Cellular neural networks: Applications, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1988, (10): 1273.[3]Chua, L. O., Roska, T., The CNN paradigm, IEEE Trans. CAS-I, 1993, (3): 147.[4]Matsumoto, T. Chua, L. O., Suzuki, H., CNN cloning template: Connected component detector, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1990, (8): 633.[5]Cao, L, Sun, Y, Yu, J., A CNN-based signature verification system,Proc. ICONIP′95, Beijing, 1995, 913—916.[6]Roska, T., Chua, L. O., The CNN universal machine: An analogic array computer, IEEE Trans. CAS Ⅱ, 1993, (3): 163.[7]Chua, L. O., Roska, T., Stability of a class of nonreciprocal cellular neural networks, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1990, (3): 1520.[8]Roska, T., Wu, C. W., Balsi, M. Et al., Stability and dynamics of delay type general and cellular neural networks, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1992, (6): 487.[9]Roska, T., Wu, C. W., Chua, L. O., Stability of cellular neural networks with dominant nonlinear and delaytype templates, IEEE Trans. CAS, 1993, (4): 270.[10]Civalleri, P. P., On stability of cellular neural networks with delay, IEEE Trans. CAS-I, 1993, (3): 157.[11]Gilli, G., Stability of cellular neural network and delayed cellular neural networks with nonpositive templates and nonmonotonic output functions, IEEE Trans CAS-I, 1994, (8): 518.[12]Baldi, P., Atiya, A. F., How delays affect neural dynamics and learning, IEEE Trans. On Neural Networks, 1994, (4): 612.[13]Liao, X. X., Mathematic foundation of cellular neural networks (Ⅰ), Science in China, Ser. A, 1994, 37(9): 902.[14]Liao, X. X., Mathematic foundation of cellular neural networks (Ⅱ), Science in China, Ser. A, 1994, 37(9): 1037.[15]Zhang, Y., Global exponential stability and periodic solutions of delay Hopfild neural networks, International J. Sys. Sci., 1996, (2): 227.[16]Zhang Yi, Zhong, S. M., Li, Z. L., Periodic solutions and global

  13. Global analysis of viral infection in an archaeal model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walid S. Maaty

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The origin and evolutionary relationship of viruses is poorly understood. This makes archaeal virus-host of particular interest because the hosts generally root near the base of phylogenetic trees, while some of the viruses have clear structural similarities to those that infect prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. Despite the advantageous position for use in evolutionary studies, little is known about archaeal viruses or how they interact with their hosts, compared to viruses of bacteria and eukaryotes. In addition, many archaeal viruses have been isolated from extreme environments and present a unique opportunity for elucidating factors that are important for existence at the extremes.. In this article we focus on virus-host interactions using a proteomics approach to study Sulfolobus Turreted Icosahedral Virus (STIV infection of Sulfolobus solfataricus P2. Using cultures grown from the ATCC cell stock, a single cycle of STIV infection was sampled 6 times over a 72 hr period. More than 700 proteins were identified throughout the course of the experiments. Seventy one host proteins were found to change by nearly two-fold (p<0.05 with 40 becoming more abundant and 31 less abundant. The modulated proteins represent 30 different cell pathways and 14 COG groups. 2D gel analysis showed that changes in post translational modifications were a common feature of the affected proteins. The results from these studies showed that the prokaryotic antiviral adaptive immune system CRISPR associated proteins (CAS proteins were regulated in response to the virus infection. It was found that regulated proteins come from mRNAs with a shorter than average half-life. In addition, activity-based protein profiling (ABPP profiling on 2D gels showed caspase, hydrolase and tyrosine phosphatase enzyme activity labeling at the protein isoform level. Together, this data provides a more detailed global view of archaeal cellular responses to viral infection, demonstrates the

  14. Feminism and psychology: analysis of a half-century of research on women and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagly, Alice H; Eaton, Asia; Rose, Suzanna M; Riger, Stephanie; McHugh, Maureen C

    2012-04-01

    Starting in the 1960s, feminists argued that the discipline of psychology had neglected the study of women and gender and misrepresented women in its research and theories. Feminists also posed many questions worthy of being addressed by psychological science. This call for research preceded the emergence of a new and influential body of research on gender and women that grew especially rapidly during the period of greatest feminist activism. The descriptions of this research presented in this article derive from searches of the journal articles cataloged by PsycINFO for 1960-2009. These explorations revealed (a) a concentration of studies in basic research areas investigating social behavior and individual dispositions and in many applied areas, (b) differing trajectories of research on prototypical topics, and (c) diverse theoretical orientations that authors have not typically labeled as feminist. The considerable dissemination of this research is evident in its dispersion beyond gender-specialty journals into a wide range of other journals, including psychology's core review and theory journals, as well as in its coverage in introductory psychology textbooks. In this formidable body of research, psychological science has reflected the profound changes in the status of women during the last half-century and addressed numerous questions that these changes have posed. Feminism served to catalyze this research area, which grew beyond the bounds of feminist psychology to incorporate a very large array of theories, methods, and topics.

  15. Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record

    OpenAIRE

    Diego Macias; Adolf Stips; Elisa Garcia-Gorriz

    2014-01-01

    Global mean surface temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the 20th century but with a highly variable warming rate, and the alternation of rapid warming periods with ‘hiatus’ decades is a constant throughout the series. The superimposition of a secular warming trend with natural multidecadal variability is the most accepted explanation for such a pattern. Since the start of the 21st century, the surface global mean temperature has not risen at the same rate as the top-of-atmo...

  16. Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogelj, J.; Chen, C.; Nabel, J.; Macey, K.; Hare, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Markmann, K.; Höhne, N.; Krogh Anderson, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2010-01-01

    This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced com

  17. CAGE Analysis of China’s Trade Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Olusegun STOBER

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Gravity model of international trade states that trade interaction between two countries is in direct proportion to their size measured by Gross Domestic Product and in inverse proportion to the geographic distance. Conley and Ligon (2001 argued that the relevant economic distance between countries is often not the geographic distance. Thus, this study uses original datasets on economic distance to structure observed variations, to decompose the multidimensional CAGE distance framework of globalization derived from the Newton’s Law of gravitation as it applies to China’s international interaction, to evaluate bilateral trade patterns in identifying and prioritizing the importance of cross-border flows and differences that accounted for the development of China’s global strategies. This study confirms that distance must be accounted for in the decision making of any country’s globalization process or any firm’s global expansion as the effects on cross-border economic activities are enormous.

  18. Global analysis of heat shock response in Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkin, A. P. (Physical Biosciences Division, Berkeley, CA); Wall, J. D. (University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO); Hazen, T. C. (Physical Biosciences Division, Berkeley, CA); He, Z. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Zhou, J. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Huang, K. H. (Physical Biosciences Division, Berkeley, CA); Gaucher, Sara P.; He, Q. (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Hadi, Masood Z.; Chhabra, Swapnil R.; Alm, Eric J. (Physical Biosciences Division, Berkeley, CA); Singh, A. K.

    2005-08-01

    Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough belongs to a class of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and is found ubiquitously in nature. Given the importance of SRB-mediated reduction for bioremediation of metal ion contaminants, ongoing research on D. vulgaris has been in the direction of elucidating regulatory mechanisms for this organism under a variety of stress conditions. This work presents a global view of this organism's response to elevated growth temperature using whole-cell transcriptomics and proteomics tools. Transcriptional response (1.7-fold change or greater; Z {ge} 1.5) ranged from 1,135 genes at 15 min to 1,463 genes at 120 min for a temperature up-shift of 13 C from a growth temperature of 37 C for this organism and suggested both direct and indirect modes of heat sensing. Clusters of orthologous group categories that were significantly affected included posttranslational modifications; protein turnover and chaperones (up-regulated); energy production and conversion (down-regulated), nucleotide transport, metabolism (down-regulated), and translation; ribosomal structure; and biogenesis (down-regulated). Analysis of the genome sequence revealed the presence of features of both negative and positive regulation which included the CIRCE element and promoter sequences corresponding to the alternate sigma factors {sigma}{sup 32} and {sigma}{sup 54}. While mechanisms of heat shock control for some genes appeared to coincide with those established for Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis, the presence of unique control schemes for several other genes was also evident. Analysis of protein expression levels using differential in-gel electrophoresis suggested good agreement with transcriptional profiles of several heat shock proteins, including DnaK (DVU0811), HtpG (DVU2643), HtrA (DVU1468), and AhpC (DVU2247). The proteomics study also suggested the possibility of posttranslational modifications in the chaperones DnaK, AhpC, GroES (DVU1977), and GroEL (DVU

  19. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

  20. An Appeal to the Global Health Community for a Tripartite Innovation: An "Essential Diagnostics List," "Health in All Policies," and "See-Through 21(st) Century Science and Ethics".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Edward S; Barlas, I Ömer; Birch, Kean; Boehme, Catharina; Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander; Byne, William M; Chaverneff, Florence; Coşkun, Yavuz; Dahl, Marja-Liisa; Dereli, Türkay; Diwakar, Shyam; Elbeyli, Levent; Endrenyi, Laszlo; Eroğlu-Kesim, Belgin; Ferguson, Lynnette R; Güngör, Kıvanç; Gürsoy, Ulvi; Hekim, Nezih; Huzair, Farah; Kaushik, Kabeer; Kickbusch, Ilona; Kıroğlu, Olcay; Kolker, Eugene; Könönen, Eija; Lin, Biaoyang; Llerena, Adrian; Malhan, Faruk; Nair, Bipin; Patrinos, George P; Şardaş, Semra; Sert, Özlem; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Steuten, Lotte M G; Toraman, Cengiz; Vayena, Effy; Wang, Wei; Warnich, Louise; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-08-01

    Diagnostics spanning a wide range of new biotechnologies, including proteomics, metabolomics, and nanotechnology, are emerging as companion tests to innovative medicines. In this Opinion, we present the rationale for promulgating an "Essential Diagnostics List." Additionally, we explain the ways in which adopting a vision for "Health in All Policies" could link essential diagnostics with robust and timely societal outcomes such as sustainable development, human rights, gender parity, and alleviation of poverty. We do so in three ways. First, we propose the need for a new, "see through" taxonomy for knowledge-based innovation as we transition from the material industries (e.g., textiles, plastic, cement, glass) dominant in the 20(th) century to the anticipated knowledge industry of the 21st century. If knowledge is the currency of the present century, then it is sensible to adopt an approach that thoroughly examines scientific knowledge, starting with the production aims, methods, quality, distribution, access, and the ends it purports to serve. Second, we explain that this knowledge trajectory focus on innovation is crucial and applicable across all sectors, including public, private, or public-private partnerships, as it underscores the fact that scientific knowledge is a co-product of technology, human values, and social systems. By making the value systems embedded in scientific design and knowledge co-production transparent, we all stand to benefit from sustainable and transparent science. Third, we appeal to the global health community to consider the necessary qualities of good governance for 21st century organizations that will embark on developing essential diagnostics. These have importance not only for science and knowledge-based innovation, but also for the ways in which we can build open, healthy, and peaceful civil societies today and for future generations.

  1. Einstein's Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeremy Laurance; 贾庆文

    2005-01-01

    Albert Einstein began working at the patent office in Bern, Switzerland, a little more than a century ago. He had flunked the entrance exam for the Swiss Federal Insitute of Technology and took the job evaluating inventions because it paid a regular salary.

  2. Facilitation of the PED analysis of large molecules by using global coordinates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamróz, Michał H; Ostrowski, Sławomir; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz

    2015-10-01

    Global coordinates have been found to be useful in the potential energy distribution (PED) analyses of the following large molecules: [13]-acene and [33]-helicene. The global coordinate is defined based on much distanced fragments of the analysed molecule, whereas so far, the coordinates used in the analysis were based on stretchings, bendings, or torsions of the adjacent atoms. It has been shown that the PED analyses performed using the global coordinate and the classical ones can lead to exactly the same PED contributions. The global coordinates may significantly improve the facility of the analysis of the vibrational spectra of large molecules.

  3. Methodological considerations for global analysis of cellular FLIM/FRET measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adbul Rahim, Nur Aida; Pelet, Serge; Kamm, Roger D.; So, Peter T. C.

    2012-02-01

    Global algorithms can improve the analysis of fluorescence energy transfer (FRET) measurement based on fluorescence lifetime microscopy. However, global analysis of FRET data is also susceptible to experimental artifacts. This work examines several common artifacts and suggests remedial experimental protocols. Specifically, we examined the accuracy of different methods for instrument response extraction and propose an adaptive method based on the mean lifetime of fluorescent proteins. We further examined the effects of image segmentation and a priori constraints on the accuracy of lifetime extraction. Methods to test the applicability of global analysis on cellular data are proposed and demonstrated. The accuracy of global fitting degrades with lower photon count. By systematically tracking the effect of the minimum photon count on lifetime and FRET prefactors when carrying out global analysis, we demonstrate a correction procedure to recover the correct FRET parameters, allowing us to obtain protein interaction information even in dim cellular regions with photon counts as low as 100 per decay curve.

  4. Global comparative transcriptome analysis of cartilage formation in vivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brachvogel Bent

    2009-03-01

    family members. Conclusion These data represent the first global gene expression profiling analysis of chondrogenic tissues during in vivo development. They identify genes for further study on their functional roles in chondrogenesis, and provide a comprehensive and important resource for future studies on cartilage development and disease.

  5. Analysis of Current Global Nuclear Safety and Security Cooperation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu; Chong

    2014-01-01

    Last year, global nuclear security and safety cooperation achieved some progress. In terms of nuclear safety, too many flaws are exposed by the current severe situation of the Fukushima in Japan’s new nuclear safety regulation system, and sound the alarm for East Asia countries accelerating the regional nuclear safety cooperation. In terms of nuclear security, since the Seoul Summit in March 2012, global nuclear security cooperation has achieved new successes. IAEA has and would play the central role in pushing forward the international framework and strengthening nuclear security globally. However, there are still some obstacles to overcome in the future, which need international society to enhance communication and common understanding, especially high-level consultations.

  6. Global annealing genetic algorithm and its convergence analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张讲社; 徐宗本; 梁怡

    1997-01-01

    A new selection mechanism termed global annealing selection (GAnS) is proposed for the genetic algorithm. It is proved that the GAnS genetic algorithm converges to the global optimums if and only if the parents are allowed to compete for reproduction, and that the variance of population’s fitness can be used as a natural stopping criterion. Numerical simulations show that the new algorithm has stronger ability to escape from local maximum and converges more rapidly than canonical genetic algorithm.

  7. Bridging the gaps for global sustainable development: a quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Victor E; Jansson, Peter Mark

    2009-09-01

    Global human progress occurs in a complex web of interactions between society, technology and the environment as driven by governance and infrastructure management capacity among nations. In our globalizing world, this complex web of interactions over the last 200 years has resulted in the chronic widening of economic and political gaps between the haves and the have-nots with consequential global cultural and ecosystem challenges. At the bottom of these challenges is the issue of resource limitations on our finite planet with increasing population. The problem is further compounded by pleasure-driven and poverty-driven ecological depletion and pollution by the haves and the have-nots respectively. These challenges are explored in this paper as global sustainable development (SD) quantitatively; in order to assess the gaps that need to be bridged. Although there has been significant rhetoric on SD with very many qualitative definitions offered, very few quantitative definitions of SD exist. The few that do exist tend to measure SD in terms of social, energy, economic and environmental dimensions. In our research, we used several human survival, development, and progress variables to create an aggregate SD parameter that describes the capacity of nations in three dimensions: social sustainability, environmental sustainability and technological sustainability. Using our proposed quantitative definition of SD and data from relatively reputable secondary sources, 132 nations were ranked and compared. Our comparisons indicate a global hierarchy of needs among nations similar to Maslow's at the individual level. As in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, nations that are struggling to survive are less concerned with environmental sustainability than advanced and stable nations. Nations such as the United States, Canada, Finland, Norway and others have higher SD capacity, and thus, are higher on their hierarchy of needs than nations such as Nigeria, Vietnam, Mexico and other

  8. Maximum-entropy clustering algorithm and its global convergence analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Constructing a batch of differentiable entropy functions touniformly approximate an objective function by means of the maximum-entropy principle, a new clustering algorithm, called maximum-entropy clustering algorithm, is proposed based on optimization theory. This algorithm is a soft generalization of the hard C-means algorithm and possesses global convergence. Its relations with other clustering algorithms are discussed.

  9. Characterization and global analysis of a family of Poisson structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Bermejo, Benito [Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnologia, Edificio Departamental II, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933 (Mostoles), Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: benito.hernandez@urjc.es

    2006-06-26

    A three-dimensional family of solutions of the Jacobi equations for Poisson systems is characterized. In spite of its general form it is possible the explicit and global determination of its main features, such as the symplectic structure and the construction of the Darboux canonical form. Examples are given.

  10. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  11. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  12. Local/global analysis applications to ground-coupled heat transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Anzi, Adnan [College of Engineering, Department of Architecture, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, Code No. 13060, Safat (Kuwait); Krarti, Moncef [CEAE Department, CB 428, University of Colorado, 80309, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2003-09-01

    In this paper, a new local/global analysis technique is developed to solve multi-dimensional ground-coupled heat transfer problems. In particular, the novel method is applied in this paper to determine foundation heat transfer for buildings with slab-on-grade floors. It is found that analytical solutions can be used successfully to capture thermal bridging effect when integrated in the developed local/global analysis technique. In addition, it is found that significant savings in computational effort can be achieved with no sacrifice in accuracy when local/global analysis is used. (authors)

  13. Transient evolution of the global mode in turbulent swirling jets: experiments and modal stability analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rukes, Lothar; Paschereit, Oliver; Oberleithner, Kilian

    2016-01-01

    Modal linear stability analysis has proven very successful in the analysis of coherent structures of turbulent flows. Formally, it describes the evolution of a disturbance in the limit of infinite time. In this work we apply modal linear stability analysis to a turbulent swirling jet undergoing a control parameter transient. The flow undergoes a transition from a non-vortex breakdown state to a state with a strong recirculation bubble and the associated global mode. High-speed Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements are the basis for a local linear stability analysis of the temporarily evolving base flow. This analysis reveals that the onset of the global mode is strongly linked to the formation of the internal stagnation point. Several transition scenarios are discussed and the ability of a frequency selection criterion to predict the wavemaker location, frequency and growth rate of the global mode are evaluated. We find excellent agreement between the linear global mode frequency and the experimental ...

  14. EDXRF portable system used in the analysis of altars, sculptures and paintings from XVII and XVIII centuries in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freitas, R.P. [Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory, COPPE/UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); CEFETEQ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Calza, C.; Lopes, R.T., E-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br [Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory, COPPE/UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Santos, R.O. [RG Conservation and Restoration, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The preservation of cultural heritage has acquired increasing interest in the last decades and many scientific techniques have been employed to analyze paintings, manuscripts, ceramics, glasses, statues, coins and metal artifacts in order to solve problems related to restoration, conservation, dating and attribution of artworks. There is also an increasing trend for non-destructive investigations since most of the samples are unique and precious objects of art and archaeology. X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) is the most widely used investigative technique in the field of archaeometry, due to a number of favorable analytical characteristics, such as multielemental and non-destructive analysis, high sensitivity and applicability to a wide range of samples. In this work, XRF was used to analyze altars, sculptures and paintings in the Saint Anthony Convent (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The cornerstone of this convent was launched in 1608, by the Franciscan friars, and the construction of the church was finished in 1620. The Saint Anthony sculpture in the main altar is one of the few remaining pieces from the XVII century in Rio de Janeiro. The splendid Baroque carvings of the chapel, covered with integral gilding, in the national Portuguese style, dates from 1716 to 1719. The results obtained during the analyses have been used in the meticulous process of restoration, developed in the last two years, in order to recover the original splendour of this important piece of our cultural heritage. The analyses were carried out with an EDXRF portable system developed in the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory, consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 {mu}A, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. In each sample were obtained several spectra, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 1.5 and 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL from IAEA. The analysis of the golden carvings of the altars, in

  15. The First Century of Disability Portrayal in Film: An Analysis of the Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safran, Stephen P.

    1998-01-01

    Provides an interdisciplinary review of portrayal of disability in film by integrating resources from film history, the social sciences, rehabilitation, mass communication, psychology, psychiatry, and education. Analysis addresses the quality of cinematic representations of disability and the politics of film. Psychiatric disorders were most…

  16. Twenty First Century Cyberbullying Defined: An Analysis of Intent, Repetition and Emotional Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Carol Marie

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the extent and impact that cyberbullying has on the undergraduate college student and provide a current definition for the event. A priori power analysis guided this research to provide an 80 percent probability of detecting a real effect with medium effect size. Adequate research power was essential to…

  17. The Determination of Children's Knowledge of Global Lunar Patterns from Online Essays Using Text Mining Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Sangno; Smith, Walter; Song, Jaeki; Kim, Yongjin

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use text mining analysis of early adolescents' online essays to determine their knowledge of global lunar patterns. Australian and American students in grades five to seven wrote about global lunar patterns they had discovered by sharing observations with each other via the Internet. These essays were analyzed for…

  18. Modeling global water use for the 21st century : The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Van Vliet, M. T H; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and wate

  19. Challenges to improvement of oral health in the 21st century--the approach of the WHO Global Oral Health Programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2004-01-01

    Chronic diseases and injuries are overtaking communicable diseases as the leading health problems in all but a few parts of the world. This rapidly changing global disease pattern is closely linked to changing lifestyles, which include diets rich in sugars, widespread use of tobacco and increased...

  20. Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew; Sampson, Christopher; Bates, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The characterization of flood behavior in data poor regions has been receiving considerable attention in recent years. In this context, we present the results of regional flood frequency analyses (RFFA) conducted using a global database of discharge data. A hybrid-clustering approach is used in conjunction with a flood-index methodology to provide a regionalized discharge estimates with global coverage. The procedures are implemented with varying complexity, with results indicating that catchment area and average annual rainfall explain the bulk of variability in flood frequency; a split-sample validation procedure revealed median errors in the estimation of the 100 year flood to be around 56%. However, far larger errors were also found, with performance varying between climate regions and estimation of the index-flood found to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Moreover, the RFFA procedure is utilized to provide insights on the statistical characteristics of floods across different climates and catchments.

  1. Hydropower versus irrigation—an analysis of global patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Ruijie; Cai, Ximing; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju

    2017-03-01

    Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key

  2. Circulation and production of knowledge and scientific practices in southern America in the eighteenth century: an analysis of Materia medica misionera, a manuscript by Pedro Montenegro (1710).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleck, Eliane Cristina Deckmann; Poletto, Roberto

    2012-12-01

    The article analyzes a 1790 manuscript copy of Materia medica misionera, a book written in 1710 by a Jesuit, Pedro Montenegro. Alongside knowledge of a magical or religious nature, and exotic ingredients for the recipes, this work also contains the unmistakable presence of Hippocratic and Galenic conceptions and a growing empiricism, characteristic of the scientific transformations seen in the eighteenth century. The analysis of this work also prompts reflections about the diffusion, circulation and production of pharmacological and medical knowledge in the first half of the eighteenth century within the missions and colleges installed in the area that was the Jesuit Province of Paraguay, southern America.

  3. Global analysis of anthropogenic debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-02-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level.

  4. A Knowledge-Based Analysis of Global Function Computation

    CERN Document Server

    Halpern, Joseph Y

    2007-01-01

    Consider a distributed system N in which each agent has an input value and each communication link has a weight. Given a global function, that is, a function f whose value depends on the whole network, the goal is for every agent to eventually compute the value f(N). We call this problem global function computation. Various solutions for instances of this problem, such as Boolean function computation, leader election, (minimum) spanning tree construction, and network determination, have been proposed, each under particular assumptions about what processors know about the system and how this knowledge can be acquired. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the problem to be solvable that generalizes a number of well-known results. We then provide a knowledge-based (kb) program (like those of Fagin, Halpern, Moses, and Vardi) that solves global function computation whenever possible. Finally, we improve the message overhead inherent in our initial kb program by giving a counterfactual belief-based pro...

  5. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasternak, A.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  6. Global Analysis of Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. Análisis Global de la Ingesta de Residuos Antropogénicos por Tortugas Marinas La ingesta de residuos marinos puede tener efectos letales y subletales sobre las tortugas marinas y otros animales. Aunque hay investigadores que han reportado la ingesta de residuos antropogénicos por tortugas marinas y la incidencia de la ingesta de residuos ha incrementado con el tiempo, no ha habido una síntesis global del fenómeno desde 1985. Por esto analizamos 37 estudios publicados, desde

  7. A Comparative Analysis of the 16th Century Ottoman Mapping of the Croatian Coast and Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drago Novak

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is an analysis and comparison of maps of Piri Reis in six different copies of Kitab-i Bahriye. The study is only concerned with the Croatian part of the eastern Adriatic Sea from Dubrovnik to Umag on the Istrian peninsula. Methods of general and special visual comparison were used. Different copies of Kitab-i Bahriye show no significant further development of cartographic content. The later copies were improved in artistic value and decorative impression, especially the manuscripts from Bologna and Berlin.

  8. A geometrical formulation of the renormalization group method for global analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kunihiro, T

    1995-01-01

    On the basis of the classical theory of envelope,we formulate the renormalization group (RG) method for global analysis, recently proposed by Goldenfeld et al. It is clarified why the RG equation improves things.

  9. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  10. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  11. Global policy for improvement of oral health in the 21st century--implications to oral health research of World Health Assembly 2007, World Health Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2009-01-01

    or adjustment of oral health programmes at national level. Clinical and public health research has shown that a number of individual, professional and community preventive measures are effective in preventing most oral diseases. However, advances in oral health science have not yet benefited the poor...... and disadvantaged populations worldwide. The major challenges of the future will be to translate knowledge and experiences in oral disease prevention and health promotion into action programmes. The WHO Global Oral Health Programme invites the international oral health research community to engage further......The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Oral Health Programme has worked hard over the past 5 years to increase the awareness of oral health worldwide as oral health is important component of general health and quality of life. Meanwhile, oral disease is still a major public health problem...

  12. IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE WORLD ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niculcea Silviu Petrisor

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the issues of maximum interes to our century is the analysis of implications of globalization on the world economy and this proves to be even more important now in the middle of financial crisis. Forecasts from the World Bank are very optimistic o

  13. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA’S AND CHINA’S PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir E. Petrovskiy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the comparative analysis of Russian and Chinese participation in the current system of global governance, and in its reform. The author views participation of the respective countries in the system of global governance as part of their foreign policy and foreign policy strategy. He shows common and distinctive features of conceptual and practical approaches towards global governance defined by specific features of Russia’s and China’s history, economic development, political culture and traditions. Based on this comparative analysis, the author speculates on the future trends of participation of the two countries in the global governance system, in the spheres of global economy and international security, and on the future trends of their policy coordination in these respective areas.

  14. Space Station user traffic model analysis for mission payload servicing into the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, G. J.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station-based Customer Servicing Facility service bay requirements for service accommodation to the Initial Orbit Capability (IOC) and far-term Station Accommodation Test Sets (SETS) missions are analyzed using the developed mission traffic model. Analysis results are presented which indicate that one servicing bay will be sufficient to accommodate IOC customer servicing requirements. Growth servicing requirements indicate that an additional servicing bay will be needed for accommodation of the far-term SATS mission payloads. Even though the level of total mission accommodation is below 100 percent for one bay at IOC and two bays during growth operations, the levels are such that operational work-around exists so that additional servicing bays will not be required.

  15. Never ending analysis of a century old evolutionary debate: unringing the urmetazoon bell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd eSchierwater

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of the early evolution of animals will be greatly improved if a final solution can be found to the evolutionary relationships between Porifera, Placozoa, Ctenophora, Cnidaria and Bilateria. There have been many recent attempts to solve this key issue at the base of the metazoan tree of life, and these have sparked heated discussions and highlighted fundamental analytical problems. We argue that solving this problem will necessitate analysis of disparate data types, including phylogenomic data, larger scale genomic characters, developmental data and morphological characters. At the least, morphological and developmental data must be used to cross-validate phylogenomic conclusions, but ideally solutions should be sought to the problems of combining disparate data sources with appropriate character weighting and algorithm choice.

  16. Global analysis of overweight prevalence by level of human development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen D Ng

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Less developed countries are increasingly afflicted with over–nutrition, and the escalating overweight prevalence has become a global problem. However, a problem as global as this may not be amenable to a general set of remedial interventions applicable to all countries. I use data from various sources, including the World Health Organization and the World Bank, to test the association of overweight prevalence with economic, social, and demographic indicators. I then split the countries up by human development index to investigate to what extent these associations vary between development levels. On a global scale, overweight prevalence is most associated with gross domestic product (GDP per capita, the proportion of a country that is rural, the proportion of elderly in a country's population, and the average years of schooling. At what magnitude, and even in which direction, these relationships go vary with a country's level of development. Generally, GDP per capita has a positive association with overweight prevalence, with the magnitude of such association for countries of very high human development more than twice of that for countries of low human development. However, proportion rural has a negative association with overweight prevalence, with the magnitude of such association for countries of low human development nearly twice of that for countries of very high human development. All four of these variables have statistically significant association with overweight prevalence in countries with low human development. I make policy suggestions to combat increasing overweight prevalence, based on the models that are developed, paying special attention to the differences in magnitude and direction of the regressors between human development levels.

  17. Spatial behavior analysis at the global level using fractal geometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambrook, Roger C

    2008-01-01

    Previous work has suggested that an estimate of fractal dimension can provide a useful metric for quantifying settlement patterns. This study uses fractal methods to investigate settlement patterns at a global scale showing that the scaling behavior of the pattern of the world's largest cities corresponds to that typically observed for coastlines and rivers. This serves to validate the use of fractal dimension as a scale-independent measure of settlement patterns which can be correlated with other physical features. Such a measure may be a useful validation criterion for models of human settlement and spatial behavior.

  18. Gene expression analysis identifies global gene dosage sensitivity in cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fehrmann, Rudolf S. N.; Karjalainen, Juha M.; Krajewska, Malgorzata;

    2015-01-01

    expression. We reanalyzed 77,840 expression profiles and observed a limited set of 'transcriptional components' that describe well-known biology, explain the vast majority of variation in gene expression and enable us to predict the biological function of genes. On correcting expression profiles...... for these components, we observed that the residual expression levels (in 'functional genomic mRNA' profiling) correlated strongly with copy number. DNA copy number correlated positively with expression levels for 99% of all abundantly expressed human genes, indicating global gene dosage sensitivity. By applying...

  19. The CT10 NNLO Global Analysis of QCD

    CERN Document Server

    Gao, Jun; Huston, Joey; Lai, Hung-Liang; Li, Zhao; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2013-01-01

    We present next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) parton distribution functions (PDFs) from the CTEQ-TEA group. The CT10NNLO PDF fit is based on essentially the same global data sets used in the CT10 and CT10W NLO PDF analyses. After exploring the goodness of the fits to the HERA combined data and the Tevatron jet data, we present various predictions at NNLO accuracy for both existing and forthcoming precision measurements from the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The range of variations in the gluon distribution introduced by correlated systematic effects in inclusive jet production is also examined.

  20. Integration and global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data for studying macromolecular interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brautigam, Chad A; Zhao, Huaying; Vargas, Carolyn; Keller, Sandro; Schuck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a powerful and widely used method to measure the energetics of macromolecular interactions by recording a thermogram of differential heating power during a titration. However, traditional ITC analysis is limited by stochastic thermogram noise and by the limited information content of a single titration experiment. Here we present a protocol for bias-free thermogram integration based on automated shape analysis of the injection peaks, followed by combination of isotherms from different calorimetric titration experiments into a global analysis, statistical analysis of binding parameters and graphical presentation of the results. This is performed using the integrated public-domain software packages NITPIC, SEDPHAT and GUSSI. The recently developed low-noise thermogram integration approach and global analysis allow for more precise parameter estimates and more reliable quantification of multisite and multicomponent cooperative and competitive interactions. Titration experiments typically take 1-2.5 h each, and global analysis usually takes 10-20 min.

  1. Mars Global Surveyor Ka-Band Frequency Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, D.; Butman, S.; Shambayati, S.

    2000-01-01

    The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, launched on November 7, 1996, carries an experimental space-to-ground telecommunications link at Ka-band (32 GHz) along with the primary X-band (8.4 GHz) downlink. The signals are simultaneously transmitted from a 1.5-in diameter parabolic high gain antenna (HGA) on MGS and received by a beam-waveguide (BWG) R&D 34-meter antenna located in NASA's Goldstone Deep Space Network (DSN) complex near Barstow, California. The projected 5-dB link advantage of Ka-band relative to X-band was confirmed in previous reports using measurements of MGS signal strength data acquired during the first two years of the link experiment from December 1996 to December 1998. Analysis of X-band and Ka-band frequency data and difference frequency (fx-fka)/3.8 data will be presented here. On board the spacecraft, a low-power sample of the X-band downlink from the transponder is upconverted to 32 GHz, the Ka-band frequency, amplified to I-W using a Solid State Power Amplifier, and radiated from the dual X/Ka HGA. The X-band signal is amplified by one of two 25 W TWTAs. An upconverter first downconverts the 8.42 GHz X-band signal to 8 GHz and then multiplies using a X4 multiplier producing the 32 GHz Ka-band frequency. The frequency source selection is performed by an RF switch which can be commanded to select a VCO (Voltage Controlled Oscillator) or USO (Ultra-Stable Oscillator) reference. The Ka-band frequency can be either coherent with the X-band downlink reference or a hybrid combination of the USO and VCO derived frequencies. The data in this study were chosen such that the Ka-band signal is purely coherent with the X-band signal, that is the downconverter is driven by the same frequency source as the X-band downlink). The ground station used to acquire the data is DSS-13, a 34-meter BWG antenna which incorporates a series of mirrors inside beam waveguide tubes which guide the energy to a subterranean pedestal room, providing a stable environment

  2. Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants.

  3. A Holistic View of Global Croplands and Their Water Use for Ensuring Global Food Security in the 21st Century through Advanced Remote Sensing and Non-remote Sensing Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkateswarlu Dheeravath

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an exhaustive review of global croplands and their water use, for the end of last millennium, mapped using remote sensing and non-remote sensing approaches by world’s leading researchers on the subject. A comparison at country scale of global cropland area estimated by these studies had a high R2-value of 0.89–0.94. The global cropland area estimates amongst different studies are quite close and range between 1.47–1.53 billion hectares. However, significant uncertainties exist in determining irrigated areas which, globally, consume nearly 80% of all human water use. The estimates show that the total water use by global croplands varies between 6,685 to 7,500 km3 yr−1 and of this around 4,586 km3 yr−1 is by rainfed croplands (green water use and the rest by irrigated croplands (blue water use. Irrigated areas use about 2,099 km3 yr−1 (1,180 km3 yr−1 of blue water and the rest from rain that falls over irrigated croplands. However, 1.6 to 2.5 times the blue water required by irrigated croplands is actually withdrawn from reservoirs or pumping of ground water, suggesting an irrigation efficiency of only between 40–62 percent. The weaknesses, trends, and future directions to precisely estimate the global croplands are examined. Finally, the paper links global croplands and their water use to a paradigm for ensuring future food security.

  4. Technological Strategy of Using Global Positioning System: An Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ahamed, S S Riaz

    2010-01-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a U.S. space-based radionavigation system that provides reliable positioning, navigation, and timing services to civilian users on a continuous worldwide basis -- freely available to all. GPS provides specially coded satellite signals that can be processed in a GPS receiver, enabling the receiver to compute position, velocity and time. Basically GPS works by using four GPS satellite signals to compute positions in three dimensions (and the time offset) in the receiver clock. GPS provides accurate location and time information for an unlimited number of people in all weather, day and night, anywhere in the world. Anyone who needs to keep track of where he or she is, to find his or her way to a specified location, or know what direction and how fast he or she is going can utilize the benefits of the global positioning system. Everyday activities such as banking, mobile phone operations, and even the control of power grids, are facilitated by the accurate timing provided by...

  5. Globalization, economic freedom, and wage inequality: A panel data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yay Gülsün

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of globalization and liberalization on wage inequality using the KOF globalization index, the Economic Freedom Index (EFI of the Fraser Institute and the Theil industrial pay inequality statistic compiled by the University of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP. Both static and dynamic fixedeffects models are estimated using a 5-year panel data set consisting of about 90 developed and developing countries for the 1970-2005 period. Estimation results from the dynamic panel data specification suggest that wage inequality has a significant and slowly changing component. The overall KOF and EFI indexes are found to be statistically insignificant in the full sample, but the results show that economic freedom is associated with more wage inequality, especially in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD countries. The estimation results from country groups indicate that more deregulation is associated with more earnings inequality in OECD countries. The results from the models with subcomponents of the EFI imply that access to sound money has a negative effect on wage inequality. A more stable price system in an economy implies a more equal wage distribution in emerging markets (EM, non-OECD countries, and European Union (EU.

  6. Technological Strategy of using Global Positioning System: An Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.S.S.Riaz Ahamed

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The Global Positioning System (GPS is a U.S. space-based radionavigation system that provides reliable positioning, navigation, and timing services to civilian users on a continuous worldwide basis -- freely available to all. GPS provides specially coded satellite signals that can be processed in a GPS receiver, enabling the receiver to compute position, velocity and time. Basically GPS works by using four GPS satellite signals to compute positions in three dimensions (and the time offset in the receiver clock. GPS provides accurate location and time information for an unlimited number of people in all weather, day and night, anywhere in the world. Anyone who needs to keep track of where he or she is, to find his or her way to a specified location, or know what direction and how fast he or she is going can utilize the benefits of the global positioning system. Everyday activities such as banking, mobile phone operations, and even the control of power grids, are facilitated by the accurate timing provided by GPS.

  7. Retrospective stable isotope analysis reveals ecosystem responses to river regulation over the last century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Thomas F; Krabbenhoft, Trevor I; Collyer, Michael L; Krabbenhoft, Corey A; Edwards, Melanie S; Sharp, Zachary D

    2015-12-01

    Disruption of natural flow regimes, nutrient pollution, and other consequences of human population growth and development have impacted most major rivers of the world. Alarming losses of aquatic biodiversity coincide with human-caused river alteration, but effects of biotic homogenization on aquatic ecosystem processes are not as well documented. This is because unaltered systems for comparison are scarce, and some ecosystem-wide effects may take decades to manifest. We evaluated aquatic ecosystem responses to extensive river- floodplain engineering and nutrient addition in the Rio Grande of southwestern North America as revealed by changes in trophic structure of, and resource availability to, the fish community. Stable Isotope Analysis (SIA) was conducted on museum-preserved fishes collected over a 70-year period of intensive river management and exponential human population growth. Trophic complexity and resource heterogeneity for fish consumers (measured as "isotopic niche breadth") decreased following sediment deprivation and channelization, and these effects persist into the present. Increased nutrient inputs led to δ15N enrichment in the entire fish community at all affected sites, and a shift to autochthonous sources of carbon at the most proximal site downstream of wastewater release, probably via bottom-up transfer. Overall, retrospective SIA of apex consumers suggests radical change and functional impairment of a floodplain river ecosystem already marked by significant biodiversity loss.

  8. Why Fish Oil Fails: A Comprehensive 21st Century Lipids-Based Physiologic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Peskin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The medical community suffered three significant fish oil failures/setbacks in 2013. Claims that fish oil’s EPA/DHA would stop the progression of heart disease were crushed when The Risk and Prevention Study Collaborative Group (Italy released a conclusive negative finding regarding fish oil for those patients with high risk factors but no previous myocardial infarction. Fish oil failed in all measures of CVD prevention—both primary and secondary. Another major 2013 setback occurred when fish oil’s DHA was shown to significantly increase prostate cancer in men, in particular, high-grade prostate cancer, in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT analysis by Brasky et al. Another monumental failure occurred in 2013 whereby fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to improve macular degeneration. In 2010, fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to help Alzheimer’s victims, even those with low DHA levels. These are by no means isolated failures. The promise of fish oil and its so-called active ingredients EPA / DHA fails time and time again in clinical trials. This lipids-based physiologic review will explain precisely why there should have never been expectation for success. This review will focus on underpublicized lipid science with a focus on physiology.

  9. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Barreto, Leonardo [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Energy Economics and Policy, Austrian Energy Agency, 1150 Vienna (Austria)

    2009-10-15

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  10. A round robin exercise in archaeometry: analysis of a blind sample reproducing a seventeenth century pharmaceutical ointment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombini, M P; Modugno, F; Gamberini, M C; Rocchi, M; Baraldi, C; Deviese, T; Stacey, R J; Orlandi, M; Saliu, F; Riedo, C; Chiantore, O; Sciutto, G; Catelli, E; Brambilla, L; Toniolo, L; Miliani, C; Rocchi, P; Bleton, J; Baumer, U; Dietemann, P; Pojana, G; Marras, S

    2011-10-01

    Chemical analysis of ancient residues of pharmaceutical or cosmetic preparations such as balms or ointments is made problematic by the high complexity of these mixtures, composed of organic and inorganic materials. Consequently, a multi-analytical approach and special caution in the interpretation of the results are necessary. In order to contribute to the improvement of analytical strategies for the characterization of complex residues and to reconstruct ancient medical practices, a replica of a pharmaceutical formulation of the seventeenth century was prepared in the laboratory according to a historically documented recipe. In a round robin exercise, a portion of the preparation was analysed as a blind sample by 11 laboratories using various analytical techniques. These included spectroscopic, chromatographic and mass spectrometric methods. None of the laboratories was able to completely reconstruct the complex formulation, but each of them gave partial positive results. The round robin exercise has demonstrated that the application of a multi-analytical approach can permit a complete and reliable reconstruction of the composition. Finally, on the basis of the results, an analytical protocol for the study of residues of ancient medical and pharmaceutical preparations has been outlined.

  11. Global and local - air pollution abatement in the 21st century. Seminar No. 14 of Zentrale Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern; Global und Lokal - Klimaschutz fuer das 21. Jahrhundert. Seminarband der Zentralen Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern. Bd. 14

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koller, U.; Behling, G.; Rauh, K.; Haury, H.J. (comps.)

    1999-08-01

    Scientists of Germany's major climate research institutes and an expert of the world climate research programme presented current information on climate trends. They informed on the results of international efforts to prevent global warming after the Buenos Aires conference and presented global climate scenarios of the future. Further issues were local air pollution abatement (energy management, thermal insulation), communal air pollution abatement concepts, and state funding in Bavaria and elsewhere. [German] Wissenschaftler aus den bedeutendsten Instituten deutscher Klimaforschung sowie ein Vertreter des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms stellten aktuelle Erkenntnisse zur Entwicklung unseres Klimas vor. Sie informierten ueber Ergebnisse internationaler Klimaschutzpolitik nach der Klimakonferenz in Buenos Aires und praesentierten Szenarien fuer das globale Klima der Zukunft. Sie widmeten sich ausserdem Fragen des lokalen Klimaschutzes unter den Aspekten Energiemanagement, Waermeschutz und diskutierten ueber kommunale Klimaschutzkonzepte sowie Foerdermoeglichkeiten in und ausserhalb Bayerns. (orig.)

  12. Comparative Analysis of Dayside Reconnection Models in Global Magnetosphere Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Komar, C M; Cassak, P A

    2015-01-01

    We test and compare a number of existing models predicting the location of magnetic reconnection at Earth's dayside magnetopause for various solar wind conditions. We employ robust image processing techniques to determine the locations where each model predicts reconnection to occur. The predictions are then compared to the magnetic separators, the magnetic field lines separating different magnetic topologies. The predictions are tested in distinct high-resolution simulations with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angles ranging from 30 to 165 degrees in global magnetohydrodynamic simulations using the three-dimensional Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code with a uniform resistivity, although the described techniques can be generally applied to any self-consistent magnetosphere code. Additional simulations are carried out to test location model dependence on IMF strength and dipole tilt. We find that most of the models match large portions of the magnetic separators wh...

  13. Effective Field Theory of Dark Matter: a Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Liem, Sebastian; Calore, Francesca; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Tait, Tim M P; Trotta, Roberto; Weniger, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    We present global fits of an effective field theory description of real, and complex scalar dark matter candidates. We simultaneously take into account all possible dimension 6 operators consisting of dark matter bilinears and gauge invariant combinations of quark and gluon fields. We derive constraints on the free model parameters for both the real (five parameters) and complex (seven) scalar dark matter models obtained by combining Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, direct detection limits from LUX, and indirect detection limits from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We find that for real scalars indirect dark matter searches disfavour a dark matter particle mass below 100 GeV. For the complex scalar dark matter particle current data have a limited impact due to the presence of operators that lead to p-wave annihilation, and also do not contribute to the spin-independent scattering cross- section. Although current data are not informative enough to strongly constrain the theory parameter space, w...

  14. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF KOI-977: SPECTROSCOPY, ASTEROSEISMOLOGY, AND PHASE-CURVE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirano, Teruyuki; Sato, Bun' ei; Kobayashi, Atsushi [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Masuda, Kento [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Benomar, Othman [Department of Astronomy, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Takeda, Yoichi; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki, E-mail: hirano@geo.titech.ac.jp [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2015-01-20

    We present a global analysis of KOI-977, one of the planet host candidates detected by Kepler. The Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) reports that KOI-977 is a red giant, for which few close-in planets have been discovered. Our global analysis involves spectroscopic and asteroseismic determinations of stellar parameters (e.g., mass and radius) and radial velocity (RV) measurements. Our analyses reveal that KOI-977 is indeed a red giant, possibly in the red clump, but its estimated radius (≳ 20 R {sub ☉} = 0.093 AU) is much larger than KOI-977.01's orbital distance (∼0.027 AU) estimated from its period (P {sub orb} ∼ 1.35 days) and host star's mass. RV measurements show a small variation, which also contradicts the amplitude of ellipsoidal variations seen in the light curve folded with KOI-977.01's period. Therefore, we conclude that KOI-977.01 is a false positive, meaning that the red giant, for which we measured the radius and RVs, is different from the object that produces the transit-like signal (i.e., an eclipsing binary). On the basis of this assumption, we also perform a light curve analysis including the modeling of transits/eclipses and phase-curve variations, adopting various values for the dilution factor D, which is defined as the flux ratio between the red giant and eclipsing binary. Fitting the whole folded light curve as well as individual transits in the short cadence data simultaneously, we find that the estimated mass and radius ratios of the eclipsing binary are consistent with those of a solar-type star and a late-type star (e.g., an M dwarf) for D ≳ 20.

  15. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Lijian

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  16. Coordinating Communities and Building Governance in the Development of Schematic and Semantic Standards: the Key to Solving Global Earth and Space Science Challenges in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyborn, L. A.

    2007-12-01

    The Information Age in Science is being driven partly by the data deluge as exponentially growing volumes of data are being generated by research. Such large volumes of data cannot be effectively processed by humans and efficient and timely processing by computers requires development of specific machine readable formats. Further, as key challenges in earth and space sciences, such as climate change, hazard prediction and sustainable development resources require a cross disciplinary approach, data from various domains will need to be integrated from globally distributed sources also via machine to machine formats. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the existing standards can be very domain specific and most existing data transfer formats require human intervention. Where groups from different communities do try combine data across the domain/discipline boundaries much time is spent reformatting and reorganizing the data and it is conservatively estimated that this can take 80% of a project's time and resources. Four different types of standards are required for machine to machine interaction: systems, syntactic, schematic and semantic. Standards at the systems (WMS, WFS, etc) and at the syntactic level (GML, Observation and Measurement, SensorML) are being developed through international standards bodies such as ISO, OGC, W3C, IEEE etc. In contrast standards at the schematic level (e.g., GeoSciML, LandslidesML, WaterML, QuakeML) and at the semantic level (ie ontologies and vocabularies) are currently developing rapidly, in a very uncoordinated way and with little governance. As the size of the community that can machine read each others data depends on the size of the community that has developed the schematic or semantic standards, it is essential that to achieve global integration of earth and space science data, the required standards need to be developed through international collaboration using accepted standard proceedures. Once developed the

  17. Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

    2015-11-01

    The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

  18. Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100. PMID:26572897

  19. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  20. Multisteps Global Kinetic Analysis of MSW Slow Pyrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Aries Himawanto

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to find relationships between single components slow pyrolysis characteristics and mixed component slow pyrolysis characteristics of segregated municipal solid wastes (MSW. The material of this research consists of organic wastes (bamboo wastes and banana leaves wastes and inorganic wastes (styrofoam wastes and snack wrapping wastes. The materials which used to study were the unprosessing waste. The samples were collected, dried and crushed until passing 20 mesh shieves then characterized in self manufactured macro balance. The thermogravimetry analyses were done to find the MSW slow pyrolysis characteristics. The 20 gram sample was placed in the furnace whose temperature is increased with 10 0C/min heating rate until reached 400 0 final temperature and held for 30 minutes before the sample is cooled into room temperature. One hundred ml/min nitrogen introduced from the bottom of furnace as a swept gas. The results of the research show that the global kinetic method could be used to predict the MSW single component activation energy but it should be modified to calculate the mixed sample activation energy . The predictive activation energy values which calculated based on weighed sum of single component have 18.5 % deviations if compared with experimental result.

  1. Economic-Social Analysis of Global Illicit Drug Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salahedin Ghaderi

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Political unstability, less respect to the role of law, low life standards and suitable conditions for poppy/coca cultivation, have all affected on growing illicit drug international trafficking. Colombia is the center for global cocaine industry. Colombians had to use ship in the Carribean but now they pass Mexico where the costs are half of using ship. Mexican traffickers permit that the domestic poppy plants turned into herion, Colombian cocaine transited to USA and methamephtamine manufactured and distributed. Golden triangle in southeast Asia is one of the major regions for opium poppy cultivation. This region has seen many guerrilla warfare for selling illicit drugs especially in Myanmar. Manufactured hroin is usually dealt in Thailand. Golden Crescent region in southwest Asia has a suitable climate for opium poppy cultivation which provides necessay money for purchasing needed weapons by rival groups in northwestern border provinces of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nigeria is one of the main centers for transporting heroin from Golden Crescent and cocaine from Brazil. Dominics run cocaine trade in New York and New England and Afro-American criminal organizations conduct heroin trading in big cities such as New york, Detroit, Chicago, Phila Delphia and Washington. Street trading of illicit drugs is mainly done by cultural or commanding gangs. Illicit drug traffickers apply many methods to laundering their profits including money exchange, smurfs, electronic transferring, and faced firms (the firms that are only registered.

  2. Analysis of pathfinder SST algorithm for global and regional conditions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ajoy Kumar; P Minnett; G Podesta; R Evans; K Kilpatrick

    2000-12-01

    As part of the Pathfinder program developed jointly by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) a large database of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) measurements coincident with satellite data is now available to the user community. The Pathfinder Matchup Database (PMDB) is a multi-year, multi-satellite collection of coincident measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and broadly distributed buoy data (matchups). This database allows the user community to test and validate new SST algorithms to improve the present accuracy of surface temperature measurements from satellites. In this paper we investigate the performance of a global Pathfinder algorithm to specific regional conditions. It is shown that for zenith angles less than 45°, the best-expected statistical discrepancy between satellite and buoy data is about ∼0.5 K. In general, the bias of the residuals (satellite - buoy) is negative in most regions, except in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas, where the residuals are always positive. A seasonal signal in SST residuals is observed in all regions and is strongest in the Indian Ocean. The channel-difference term used as a proxy for atmospheric water vapor correction is observed to be unresponsive for columnar water vapor values greater than 45 mm and high zenith angles. This unresponsiveness of the channels leads to underestimation of sea surface temperature from satellites in these conditions.

  3. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  4. Global Interactions Analysis of Epileptic ECoG Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Guillermo J.; Sola, Rafael G.; Pastor, Jesús

    2007-05-01

    Localization of the epileptogenic zone is an important issue in epileptology, even though there is not a unique definition of the epileptic focus. The objective of the present study is to test ultrametric analysis to uncover cortical interactions in human epileptic data. Correlation analysis has been carried out over intraoperative Electro-Corticography (ECoG) data in 2 patients suffering from temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Recordings were obtained using a grid of 20 electrodes (5×4) covering the lateral temporal lobe and a strip of either 4 or 8 electrodes at the mesial temporal lobe. Ultrametric analysis was performed in the averaged final correlation matrices. By using the matrix of linear correlation coefficients and the appropriate metric distance between pairs of electrodes time series, we were able to construct Minimum Spanning Trees (MST). The topological connectivity displayed by these trees gives useful and valuable information regarding physiological and pathological information in the temporal lobe of epileptic patients.

  5. Global analysis on slope stability and its engineering application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In hydraulic engineering, sometimes it is necessary to consider the stability of sliding bodies with lateral frictional boundaries. Neither the existing three dimensional limit equilibrium methods nor the commercial software products are able to treat such situations. The three dimensional factor of safety is accordingly underestimated; while the shearing strength based on the three dimensional back analysis is overestimated. In this study, the lateral boundaries are regarded as the part of the slip surface. Based on the expression of the normal pressure on the slip surface and the patch interpolation, a rigorous solution for the three dimensional limit equilibrium analysis is realized. Meanwhile, the proposed procedure is applied to the stability analysis of the slope with a cable platform on the right bank in Da Gang Shan hydraulic project under construction.

  6. Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, K. B.; Ma, Y.; Tan, X. L.; Shen, X. Y.; Liu, G.; Li, Z. L.; Chen, J. M.; Xia, L.

    2017-01-01

    Global surface temperature change is one of the most important aspects in global climate change research. In this study, in order to overcome shortcomings of traditional observation methods in meteorology, a new method is proposed to calculate global mean surface temperature based on remote sensing data. We found that (1) the global mean surface temperature was close to 14.35 °C from 2001 to 2012, and the warmest and coldest surface temperatures of the global in the recent twelve years occurred in 2005 and 2008, respectively; (2) the warmest and coldest surface temperatures on the global land surface occurred in 2005 and 2001, respectively, and on the global ocean surface in 2010 and 2008, respectively; and (3) in recent twelve years, although most regions (especially the Southern Hemisphere) are warming, global warming is yet controversial because it is cooling in the central and eastern regions of Pacific Ocean, northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, northern regions of China, Mongolia, southern regions of Russia, western regions of Canada and America, the eastern and northern regions of Australia, and the southern tip of Africa. The analysis of daily and seasonal temperature change indicates that the temperature change is mainly caused by the variation of orbit of celestial body. A big data model based on orbit position and gravitational-magmatic change of celestial body with the solar or the galactic system should be built and taken into account for climate and ecosystems change at a large spatial-temporal scale.

  7. Analysis and Improvement of TCP Congestion Control Mechanism Based on Global Optimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Network flow control is formulated as a global optimization problem of user profit. A general global optimization flow control model is established. This model combined with the stochastic model of TCP is used to study the global rate allocation characteristic of TCP. Analysis shows when active queue manage ment is used in network TCP rates tend to be allocated to maximize the aggregate of a user utility function Us (called Us fairness). The TCP throughput formula is derived. An improved TCP congestion control mecha nism is proposed. Simulations show its throughput is TCP friendly when competing with existing TCP and its rate change is smoother. Therefore, it is suitable to carry multimedia applications.

  8. ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA‟S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE CHINESE DIRECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihui Zou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of Russian foreign policy in the Chinese direction at the beginning of the XXI century. Nowadays, rise of the eastern regions deepening of integration into the political and economic space of the Pacific Rim countries and development of internal cooperation, especially with the People's Republic of China (PRC are on current interest for Russia‟s development. Since 2000 to the present time there is development of bilateral relations, cultural and humanitarian contacts and exchanges, more intensive cooperation in education, culture, health, sports, tourism, media, film industry, archives on the basis of the Russian Federation Foreign Policy Concept, the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, friendship and cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China and other normative legal documents. It is noted that the parties have expressed their intention to continue increasing comprehensive cooperation and enhancing mutual support in protecting national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of each other, maintenance of international peace and stability and building a new, more just, sustainable and democratic world order. An important component of the Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation is mutual support in the fundamental interests of both countries concerning with the issues of state sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. The Russian side confirms strong support for the principled ground of the Chinese government on the Taiwan issues, Tibet and Xinjiang, the Chinese policy in the protection of the national unity and territorial integrity of China. At the same time, the People's Republic reaffirms its support for protecting Russia‟s fundamental interests and promoting regional peace and stability in the Caucasus region and in the CIS. The article shows the view of Chinese scholars, political scientists on the problems of cooperation between China and Russia.

  9. Analysis of a global database containing tritium in precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Rabun, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Heath, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

    2016-02-17

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) directed the collection of tritium in water samples from the mid-1950s to 2009. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data examined the airborne movement of isotope releases to the environment, with an objective of collecting spatial data on the isotope content of precipitation across the globe. The initial motivation was to monitor atmospheric thermonuclear test fallout through tritium, deuterium, and oxygen isotope concentrations, but after the 1970s the focus changed to being an observation network of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope data for hydrologic studies. The GNIP database provides a wealth of tritium data collections over a long period of time. The work performed here primarily examined data features in the past 30 years (after much of the effects of above-ground nuclear testing in the late 1950s to early 1960s decayed away), revealing potentially unknown tritium sources. The available data at GNIP were reorganized to allow for evaluation of trends in the data both temporally and spatially. Several interesting cases were revealed, including relatively high measured concentrations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Russia, Norway, as well as an increase in background concentration at a collector in South Korea after 2004. Recent data from stations in the southeastern United States nearest to the Savannah River Site do not indicate any high values. Meteorological impacts have not been considered in this study. Further research to assess the likely source location of interesting cases using transport simulations and/or literature searches is warranted.

  10. Analysis of global sumoylation changes occurring during keratinocyte differentiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillip R Heaton

    Full Text Available Sumoylation is a highly dynamic process that plays a role in a multitude of processes ranging from cell cycle progression to mRNA processing and cancer. A previous study from our lab demonstrated that SUMO plays an important role in keratinocyte differentiation. Here we present a new method of tracking the sumoylation state of proteins by creating a stably transfected HaCaT keratinocyte cell line expressing an inducible SNAP-SUMO3 protein. The SNAP-tag allows covalent fluorescent labeling that is denaturation resistant. When combined with two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, the SNAP-tag technology provides direct visualization of sumoylated targets and can be used to follow temporal changes in the global cohort of sumoylated proteins during dynamic processes such as differentiation. HaCaT keratinocyte cells expressing SNAP-SUMO3 displayed normal morphological and biochemical features that are consistent with typical keratinocyte differentiation. SNAP-SUMO3 also localized normally in these cells with a predominantly nuclear signal and some minor cytoplasmic staining, consistent with previous reports for untagged SUMO2/3. During keratinocyte differentiation the total number of proteins modified by SNAP-SUMO3 was highest in basal cells, decreased abruptly after induction of differentiation, and slowly rebounded beginning between 48 and 72 hours as differentiation progressed. However, within this overall trend the pattern of change for individual sumoylated proteins was highly variable with both increases and decreases in amount over time. From these results we conclude that sumoylation of proteins during keratinocyte differentiation is a complex process which likely reflects and contributes to the biochemical changes that drive differentiation.

  11. Effective field theory of dark matter: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem, Sebastian; Bertone, Gianfranco; Calore, Francesca; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Tait, Tim M. P.; Trotta, Roberto; Weniger, Christoph

    2016-09-01

    We present global fits of an effective field theory description of real, and complex scalar dark matter candidates. We simultaneously take into account all possible dimension 6 operators consisting of dark matter bilinears and gauge invariant combinations of quark and gluon fields. We derive constraints on the free model parameters for both the real (five parameters) and complex (seven) scalar dark matter models obtained by combining Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, direct detection limits from LUX, and indirect detection limits from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We find that for real scalars indirect dark matter searches disfavour a dark matter particle mass below 100 GeV. For the complex scalar dark matter particle current data have a limited impact due to the presence of operators that lead to p-wave annihilation, and also do not contribute to the spin-independent scattering cross-section. Although current data are not informative enough to strongly constrain the theory parameter space, we demonstrate the power of our formalism to reconstruct the theoretical parameters compatible with an actual dark matter detection, by assuming that the excess of gamma rays observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope towards the Galactic centre is entirely due to dark matter annihilations. Please note that the excess can very well be due to astrophysical sources such as millisecond pulsars. We find that scalar dark matter interacting via effective field theory operators can in principle explain the Galactic centre excess, but that such interpretation is in strong tension with the non-detection of gamma rays from dwarf galaxies in the real scalar case. In the complex scalar case there is enough freedom to relieve the tension.

  12. ADVANCED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ANALYSIS USING THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENT MODEL (GCAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J. A.; Wise, M. A.; MacCracken, C. N.

    1994-05-01

    We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analys~s shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences. in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences In modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the m~ddleo f the eighteenth century. While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emiss~ons reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

  13. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

    2009-10-01

    Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

  14. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  15. Comparative analysis of the service lists of descriptive books of Joseph-Volokolamsky and Solovetsky monasteries of XVI century (on the example of icon inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondareva Alexandra Dmitrievna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The work has been done as part of linguistic source study and provides a comparative analysis of the two fragments of two descreptive books of the Solovetsky and Joseph Volokolamsky Monasteries in middle of the XVI century. The object of the study is articles of the icon inventory in terms of structure and content. The study has identified general and specific features of the monuments of the business literature, it is given the justification of linguacultural documents importance.

  16. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sujit Das, Josh Warren, Devin West, Susan M. Schexnayder

    2016-05-01

    This analysis identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where resources and investments can help advance the clean energy economy. The report focuses on four application areas — wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels — that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components.

  17. Gender inequality and HIV transmission: a global analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene T Richardson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The HIV pandemic disproportionately impacts young women. Worldwide, young women aged 15–24 are infected with HIV at rates twice that of young men, and young women alone account for nearly a quarter of all new HIV infections. The incommensurate HIV incidence in young – often poor – women underscores how social and economic inequalities shape the HIV epidemic. Confluent social forces, including political and gender violence, poverty, racism, and sexism impede equal access to therapies and effective care, but most of all constrain the agency of women. Methods: HIV prevalence data was compiled from the 2010 UNAIDS Global Report. Gender inequality was assessed using the 2011 United Nations Human Development Report Gender Inequality Index (GII. Logistic regression models were created with predominant mode of transmission (heterosexual vs. MSM/IDU as the dependent variable and GII, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Democracy Index, male circumcision rate, log gross national income (GNI per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP, and region as independent variables. Results and discussion: There is a significant correlation between having a predominantly heterosexual epidemic and high gender inequality across all models. There is not a significant association between whether a country is predominantly Muslim, has a high/low GNI at PPP, has a high/low circumcision rate, and its primary mode of transmission. In addition, there are only three countries that have had a generalized epidemic in the past but no longer have one: Cambodia, Honduras, and Eritrea. GII data are available only for Cambodia and Honduras, and these countries showed a 37 and 34% improvement, respectively, in their Gender Inequality Indices between 1995 and 2011. During the same period, both countries reduced their HIV prevalence below the 1% threshold of a generalized epidemic. This represents limited but compelling evidence that improvements in gender inequality can lead to

  18. Multi-temporal analysis of energetic fluxes in the Maremma (Italy landscape between XIX and XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santoro A

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Using the energy flow account and the input/output analysis is possible to assess the “energetic sustainability” of landscape, in order to define policies as well as planning and management tools of the rural territory. The study area is the municipality of Castagneto Carducci, located on the Tuscan coastline, in the Leghorn district. The area, 14.000 hectares wide, is characterized by wooded hills in the inner part, a narrow dunal band along the coastline with mixed pine woods, and a flat area in the middle where all the major infrastructures and agricultural activities are located. The economy is based on tourism and on high quality wine production. The energy balance is not only referred to the present situation, but we have carried out the balances for the years 1832 and 1954, in order to assess the energy use evolution through the last 180 years, according to a multitemporal methodology develop for monitoring the dynamics of Tuscan landscape The energy balances examine all the energy flows result from the various activities in agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry. The study area must be considered as a close system, and we have to value the energy flows between the inside and the outside of this system, and how this energy is used inside of it. The three periods show different landscapes, due to the different socio-economic situation. In 1832 we find a traditional agricultural structure, based on large estate and on mezzadria management; in 1954 the mezzadria gives way to the diffusion of industrial agriculture and animal husbandry, while olive orchards became one of the main elements of the landscape. From the ’70s we attend at the proliferation of vineyards, and in few years Castagneto will become the area where some of the best Italian wines are produced (Sassicaia, Ornellaia. The wooded areas have undergone a dramatic change in their spatial location, specific composition, density and structure, but the extension remains the

  19. Global metabolite analysis of yeast: evaluation of sample preparation methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villas-Bôas, Silas Granato; Højer-Pedersen, Jesper; Åkesson, Mats Fredrik;

    2005-01-01

    , which is the analysis of a large number of metabolites with very diverse chemical and physical properties. This work reports the leakage of intracellular metabolites observed during quenching yeast cells with cold methanol solution, the efficacy of six different methods for the extraction...... of intracellular metabolites, and the losses noticed during sample concentration by lyophilization and solvent evaporation. A more reliable procedure is suggested for quenching yeast cells with cold methanol solution, followed by extraction of intracellular metabolites by pure methanol. The method can be combined...

  20. A literary analysis of global female identity, health, and equity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagan, Teresa L; Cohen, Susan M

    2014-01-01

    Females' experiences of identity, health, and equity share similar features around the world. This literary analysis describes the narratives of 4 female protagonists from popular fiction novels to identify similarities between their personal and contextualized experiences. The impact these private realities and public structures have on female health will be used to demonstrate the universal ecological threats to women's health. In conclusion, we offer suggestions on how to incorporate the shared female movement from domination and separation toward liberation and connection into modern health care practices that emphasize shared decision making, open communication, and social activism.

  1. How to assess the Efficiency and "Uncertainty" of Global Sensitivity Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an important paradigm for understanding model behavior, characterizing uncertainty, improving model calibration, etc. Conventional "global" SA (GSA) approaches are rooted in different philosophies, resulting in different and sometime conflicting and/or counter-intuitive assessment of sensitivity. Moreover, most global sensitivity techniques are highly computationally demanding to be able to generate robust and stable sensitivity metrics over the entire model response surface. Accordingly, a novel sensitivity analysis method called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS) is introduced to overcome the aforementioned issues. VARS uses the Variogram concept to efficiently provide a comprehensive assessment of global sensitivity across a range of scales within the parameter space. Based on the VARS principles, in this study we present innovative ideas to assess (1) the efficiency of GSA algorithms and (2) the level of confidence we can assign to a sensitivity assessment. We use multiple hydrological models with different levels of complexity to explain the new ideas.

  2. An Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Drinking Water Access to Climate-related Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, M.; Banerjee, O.; Christenson, E.; Holcomb, D.; Hamrick, L.; Bartram, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global drinking water access targets are formulated around "sustainable access." Global climate change (GCC) and associated hazards threaten the sustainability of drinking water supply. Extensive literature exists on the impacts of GCC on precipitation and water resources. However, the literature lacks a credible analysis of the vulnerability of global drinking water access. This research reports on an analysis of the current vulnerability of drinking water access due to three climate-related hazardous events: cyclone, drought and flood. An ArcGIS database was built incorporating the following: population density, hazardous event frequency, drinking water technologies in use and adaptive capacity. Two global grids were incorporated first: (1) LandScanTM global population distribution; and (2) frequency of cyclone, drought and flood from ~1980-2000 from Columbia University Center for Hazards Risk Research (CHRR). Population density was used to characterize cells as urban or rural and country-level urban/rural drinking water technologies in use were added based on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme data. Expert assessment of the resilience of each technology to each hazardous event based on WHO/DFID Vision 2030 were quantified and added to the database. Finally, country-level adaptive capacity was drawn from the "readiness" parameter of the Global Adaptation Index (GaIn). ArcGIS Model Builder and Python were used to automate the addition of datasets. This presentation will report on the results of this analysis, the first credible attempt to assess the vulnerability of global drinking water access to climate-related hazardous events. This analysis has yielded country-level scores and maps displaying the ranking of exposure score (for flood, drought, cyclone, and all three in aggregate) and the corresponding country-level vulnerability scores and rankings incorporating the impact of drinking water technologies and adaptive capacity (Figure 1).

  3. A global seasonal surface ocean climatology of phytoplankton types based on CHEMTAX analysis of HPLC pigments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swan, Chantal M.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Laufkoetter, Charlotte

    2016-03-01

    Much advancement has been made in recent years in field data assimilation, remote sensing and ecosystem modeling, yet our global view of phytoplankton biogeography beyond chlorophyll biomass is still a cursory taxonomic picture with vast areas of the open ocean requiring field validations. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data combined with inverse methods offer an advantage over many other phytoplankton quantification measures by way of providing an immediate perspective of the whole phytoplankton community in a sample as a function of chlorophyll biomass. Historically, such chemotaxonomic analysis has been conducted mainly at local spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. Here, we apply a widely tested inverse approach, CHEMTAX, to a global climatology of pigment observations from HPLC. This study marks the first systematic and objective global application of CHEMTAX, yielding a seasonal climatology comprised of ~1500 1°×1° global grid points of the major phytoplankton pigment types in the ocean characterizing cyanobacteria, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates, and diatoms, with results validated against prior regional studies where possible. Key findings from this new global view of specific phytoplankton abundances from pigments are a) the large global proportion of marine haptophytes (comprising 32±5% of total chlorophyll), whose biogeochemical functional roles are relatively unknown, and b) the contrasting spatial scales of complexity in global community structure that can be explained in part by regional oceanographic conditions. The results are publically accessible via

  4. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Warren, Josh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); West, Devin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Schexnayder, Susan M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-05-01

    This study identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where the United States Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy resources and investments can help the United States achieve or maintain a competitive advantage. The report focuses on four application areas--wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels--that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers and are also particularly relevant to EERE's mission. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components, all contributing to a competitiveness assessment that addresses the United States' role in future industry growth. This report was prepared by researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee for the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center.

  5. Global gene expression analysis for evaluation and design of biomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobutaka Hanagata, Taro Takemura and Takashi Minowa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive gene expression analysis using DNA microarrays has become a widespread technique in molecular biological research. In the biomaterials field, it is used to evaluate the biocompatibility or cellular toxicity of metals, polymers and ceramics. Studies in this field have extracted differentially expressed genes in the context of differences in cellular responses among multiple materials. Based on these genes, the effects of materials on cells at the molecular level have been examined. Expression data ranging from several to tens of thousands of genes can be obtained from DNA microarrays. For this reason, several tens or hundreds of differentially expressed genes are often present in different materials. In this review, we outline the principles of DNA microarrays, and provide an introduction to methods of extracting information which is useful for evaluating and designing biomaterials from comprehensive gene expression data.

  6. Current Global Almond Trade and Its Consumption Patterns Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    This article aims to investigate the current situation of the international almond trade and its consumption patterns.Traditionally, almonds are characterized by their good taste and high quality and regarded as an ideal source of several natural health nutrients. At present, the United States is the leading almond producer and exporter in the world, accompanied by Germany, Spain and Japan, the biggest almond importing countries. In order to study almond consumption patterns, two indicators were used in our study, the Food Consumer Location Ratio (FCLR) and the Food Consumer Location Relative Ratio (FCLRR). Furthermore, to identify the almond consumption groups, we carried out two cluster analyses based on FCLR and FCLRR values. Finally, an analysis of the factors which have an impact on a country's almond consumption was conducted. It shows that income level, endowment of resources and tradition as well as dietary habits are key factors that help to shape a country's almond consumption pattern.

  7. Global Analysis of Palmitoylated Proteins in Toxoplasma gondii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foe, Ian T; Child, Matthew A; Majmudar, Jaimeen D; Krishnamurthy, Shruthi; van der Linden, Wouter A; Ward, Gary E; Martin, Brent R; Bogyo, Matthew

    2015-10-14

    Post-translational modifications (PTMs) such as palmitoylation are critical for the lytic cycle of the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii. While palmitoylation is involved in invasion, motility, and cell morphology, the proteins that utilize this PTM remain largely unknown. Using a chemical proteomic approach, we report a comprehensive analysis of palmitoylated proteins in T. gondii, identifying a total of 282 proteins, including cytosolic, membrane-associated, and transmembrane proteins. From this large set of palmitoylated targets, we validate palmitoylation of proteins involved in motility (myosin light chain 1, myosin A), cell morphology (PhIL1), and host cell invasion (apical membrane antigen 1, AMA1). Further studies reveal that blocking AMA1 palmitoylation enhances the release of AMA1 and other invasion-related proteins from apical secretory organelles, suggesting a previously unrecognized role for AMA1. These findings suggest that palmitoylation is ubiquitous throughout the T. gondii proteome and reveal insights into the biology of this important human pathogen.

  8. Global analysis of the sporulation pathway of Clostridium difficile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly A Fimlaid

    Full Text Available The Gram-positive, spore-forming pathogen Clostridium difficile is the leading definable cause of healthcare-associated diarrhea worldwide. C. difficile infections are difficult to treat because of their frequent recurrence, which can cause life-threatening complications such as pseudomembranous colitis. The spores of C. difficile are responsible for these high rates of recurrence, since they are the major transmissive form of the organism and resistant to antibiotics and many disinfectants. Despite the importance of spores to the pathogenesis of C. difficile, little is known about their composition or formation. Based on studies in Bacillus subtilis and other Clostridium spp., the sigma factors σ(F, σ(E, σ(G, and σ(K are predicted to control the transcription of genes required for sporulation, although their specific functions vary depending on the organism. In order to determine the roles of σ(F, σ(E, σ(G, and σ(K in regulating C. difficile sporulation, we generated loss-of-function mutations in genes encoding these sporulation sigma factors and performed RNA-Sequencing to identify specific sigma factor-dependent genes. This analysis identified 224 genes whose expression was collectively activated by sporulation sigma factors: 183 were σ(F-dependent, 169 were σ(E-dependent, 34 were σ(G-dependent, and 31 were σ(K-dependent. In contrast with B. subtilis, C. difficile σ(E was dispensable for σ(G activation, σ(G was dispensable for σ(K activation, and σ(F was required for post-translationally activating σ(G. Collectively, these results provide the first genome-wide transcriptional analysis of genes induced by specific sporulation sigma factors in the Clostridia and highlight that diverse mechanisms regulate sporulation sigma factor activity in the Firmicutes.

  9. New limits on intrinsic charm in the nucleon from global analysis of parton distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Jimenez-Delgado, P; Londergan, J T; Melnitchouk, W

    2014-01-01

    We present a new global QCD analysis of parton distribution functions, allowing for possible nonperturbative or intrinsic charm (IC) contributions in the nucleon inspired by light-front models. The analysis makes use of the full range of available high energy scattering data for Q^2 > 1 GeV^2 and W^2 > 3.5 GeV^2, including SLAC proton and deuteron deep-inelastic scattering cross sections that were excluded in previously global analyses. The SLAC data in particular place more stringent constraints on the momentum carried by IC, with _IC _IC = 0.13 +- 0.04%, but have a very large chi^2 value.

  10. JASIS and Library and Information Science Journal Rankings: A Review and Analysis of the Last Half-Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisonger, Thomas E.

    1999-01-01

    Analyzes the "Journal of the American Society for Information Science's (JASIS's)" and its immediate predecessor, "American Documentation's," position in library and information science journal rankings published during the last half-century. Concludes that journal rankings represent a frequently overlooked tool of value to…

  11. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  12. Global dynamics of triaxial galactic models through frequency map analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaphilippou, Y.; Laskar, J.

    1998-01-01

    In a previous article (Papaphilippou & Laskar 1996), we used the frequency map analysis for studying the dynamics of the axisymmetric softened version of the logarithmic potential. The method is now applied to its 3-dimensional generalisation in order to deepen our knowledge regarding the dynamics of triaxial power-law galactic models. The principal dynamical features of the system are reviewed within the appropriate Hamiltonian frame of reference. The quasi-periodic approximations furnished by the method permit to clarify the dynamics of the principal types of orbits and their connection with perturbations of integrable cases of the general Hamiltonian. All the fine details of the dynamics associated with the addition of the third degree of freedom are displayed in the complete frequency map, a direct representation of the system's Arnol'd web. The influence of resonant lines and the extent of the chaotic zones are directly visualized in the physical space of the system. This approach reveals many unknown dynamical features of triaxial galactic potentials and gives strong indications that chaos should be an innate characteristic of triaxial configurations. The impact of these results in the construction of self-consistent galactic models are finally discussed.

  13. Analysis of experimental studies on gully erosion: a global review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Carlos; Gómez, Jose A.

    2015-04-01

    Research on gully erosion has increased significantly in the last decades. Despite the growing interest on the topic, relevant knowledge gaps still remain a challenge for gully erosion researchers (Poesen, 2011). Moreover, many of these studies are mainly descriptive, with little quantitative data allowing a comparison of the severity of the processes among different environments and conditions. The aim of this communication is to analyse the available experimental data in gully erosion literature involving quantitative information from the Web of Science datasets. Our objective is to investigate relevant trends of this type of erosion on the world scale. We have evaluated the role of gully erosion in the overall soil losses as well as the magnitude of the morphological variables. Also, we analysed the characteristics of image-based and field surveys regarding the technique employed, duration and data collection frequency. In this communication, we intend to provide insights on the evolution of gully erosion research up to the present moment in order to gain perspectives on the design of future efforts in the topic. References Poesen, J. 2011. Challenges in gully erosion research. Landform Analysis, Vol. 17: 5-9.

  14. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  15. Political priority of global oral health: an analysis of reasons for international neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzian, Habib; Hobdell, Martin; Holmgren, Christopher; Yee, Robert; Monse, Bella; Barnard, Johannes T; van Palenstein Helderman, Wim

    2011-06-01

    Global Oral Health suffers from a lack of political attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper analyses the reasons for this political neglect through the lens of four areas of political power: the power of the ideas, the power of the issue, the power of the actors, and the power of the political context (using a modified Political Power Framework by Shiffman and Smith. Lancet370 [2007] 1370). The analysis reveals that political priority for global oral health is low, resulting from a set of complex issues deeply rooted in the current global oral health sector, its stakeholders and their remit, the lack of coherence and coalescence; as well as the lack of agreement on the problem, its portrayal and possible solutions. The shortcomings and weaknesses demonstrated in the analysis range from rather basic matters, such as defining the issue in an agreed way, to complex and multi-levelled issues concerning appropriate data collection and agreement on adequate solutions. The political priority of Global Oral Health can only be improved by addressing the underlying reasons that resulted in the wide disconnection between the international health discourse and the small sector of Global Oral Health. We hope that this analysis may serve as a starting point for a long overdue, broad and candid international analysis of political, social, cultural, communication, financial and other factors related to better prioritisation of oral health. Without such an analysis and the resulting concerted action the inequities in Global Oral Health will grow and increasingly impact on health systems, development and, most importantly, human lives.

  16. AN ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGIES OF RURAL FOUNDRIES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURY IN THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Baillargeon

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The business model and strategic position of Quebec's rural foundries at the beginning of the 20th century is virtually unknown. Inferences have been made based on pictorial and oral data sources. This data reveals that successful rural foundries were, in essence, confined to producing and selling agricultural tools to local farmers on an as-needed basis, because large urban foundries were already mass-producing domestic and industrial objects. In contrast, use of detailed accounting records and advertising publications of three rural foundries over the 1900 to 1914 period provides a clearer picture of the production and of the clientele of those rural foundries. Analysis of these sources suggests that the strategic business model of rural foundries was much more elaborate than the existing literature posits. Rural owner-managers of the early 20th century were sophisticated strategists, marketers, and operators.

  17. A global analysis of adaptive evolution of operons in cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Danish; Singh, Abhay K; Pakrasi, Himadri B; Wangikar, Pramod P

    2013-02-01

    Operons are an important feature of prokaryotic genomes. Evolution of operons is hypothesized to be adaptive and has contributed significantly towards coordinated optimization of functions. Two conflicting theories, based on (i) in situ formation to achieve co-regulation and (ii) horizontal gene transfer of functionally linked gene clusters, are generally considered to explain why and how operons have evolved. Furthermore, effects of operon evolution on genomic traits such as intergenic spacing, operon size and co-regulation are relatively less explored. Based on the conservation level in a set of diverse prokaryotes, we categorize the operonic gene pair associations and in turn the operons as ancient and recently formed. This allowed us to perform a detailed analysis of operonic structure in cyanobacteria, a morphologically and physiologically diverse group of photoautotrophs. Clustering based on operon conservation showed significant similarity with the 16S rRNA-based phylogeny, which groups the cyanobacterial strains into three clades. Clade C, dominated by strains that are believed to have undergone genome reduction, shows a larger fraction of operonic genes that are tightly packed in larger sized operons. Ancient operons are in general larger, more tightly packed, better optimized for co-regulation and part of key cellular processes. A sub-clade within Clade B, which includes Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803, shows a reverse trend in intergenic spacing. Our results suggest that while in situ formation and vertical descent may be a dominant mechanism of operon evolution in cyanobacteria, optimization of intergenic spacing and co-regulation are part of an ongoing process in the life-cycle of operons.

  18. Global transcriptome analysis of the heat shock response ofshewanella oneidensis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Haichun; Wang, Sarah; Liu, Xueduan; Yan, Tinfeng; Wu, Liyou; Alm, Eric; Arkin, Adam P.; Thompson, Dorothea K.; Zhou, Jizhong

    2004-04-30

    Shewanella oneidensis is an important model organism for bioremediation studies because of its diverse respiratory capabilities. However, the genetic basis and regulatory mechanisms underlying the ability of S. oneidensis to survive and adapt to various environmentally relevant stresses is poorly understood. To define this organism's molecular response to elevated growth temperatures, temporal gene expression profiles were examined in cells subjected to heat stress using whole-genome DNA microarrays for S. oneidensis MR-1. Approximately 15 percent (711) of the predicted S. oneidensis genes represented on the microarray were significantly up- or down-regulated (P < 0.05) over a 25-min period following shift to the heat shock temperature (42 C). As expected, the majority of S. oneidensis genes exhibiting homology to known chaperones and heat shock proteins (Hsps) were highly and transiently induced. In addition, a number of predicted genes encoding enzymes in glycolys is and the pentose cycle, [NiFe] dehydrogenase, serine proteases, transcriptional regulators (MerR, LysR, and TetR families), histidine kinases, and hypothetical proteins were induced in response to heat stress. Genes encoding membrane proteins were differentially expressed, suggesting that cells possibly alter their membrane composition or structure in response to variations in growth temperature. A substantial number of the genes encoding ribosomal proteins displayed down-regulated co-expression patterns in response to heat stress, as did genes encoding prophage and flagellar proteins. Finally, based on computational comparative analysis of the upstream promoter regions of S.oneidensis heat-inducible genes, a putative regulatory motif, showing high conservation to the Escherichia coli sigma 32-binding consensus sequence, was identified.

  19. Impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity in the 20th century: a multi-model multi-forcing analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-04-01

    Socioeconomic developments increasingly put pressure on our global fresh water resources. Over the past century, increasing extents of land were converted into (irrigated) agricultural production areas whilst dams and reservoirs were built to get grip on the timing and availability of fresh water resources. Often targeted to be of use at local, regional, or national levels, such human interventions affect, however, terrestrial water fluxes on larger scales. Although many of these interventions have been studied intensively at global and regional scales, the impact of land use and land cover change has often been omitted, and an assessment on how land conversions impact water resources availability and water scarcity conditions was not executed before, despite its importance in the development of sound integrated river basin water management plans. To address this issue, we evaluate in this contribution how land use and land cover change impact water resources and water scarcity conditions in the 20th century, using a multi-model multi-forcing framework. A novelty of this research is that the impact models applied in this study use the dynamic HYDE 3.1 - MIRCA dataset to cover the historical (1971-2010) changes in land use and land cover. Preliminary results show that more than 60% of the global population, predominantly living in downstream areas, is adversely affected by the impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity conditions. Whilst incoming discharge generally (in 97% of the global land area) tends to decrease due to upstream land conversions, we found at the same time increases in local runoff levels for a significant share (27%) of the global land area. Which effect eventually dominates and whether it causes water scarcity conditions is determined by the dependency of a region to water resources originating in upstream areas, and by the increasing rates with which the (locally generated) stream flow is used to fulfil (non

  20. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  1. Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

  2. Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

    2011-12-27

    Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21(st) century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21(st) century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

  3. Moving the goalposts: gender and globalisation in the twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, R

    2000-03-01

    This article posits the argument that the 21st century will witness an assertion of the global relevance of gender in development. It looks at globalization from a gender perspective by mapping out the different aspects of the globalization processes, and viewing each of these aspects through the lens of gender analysis. The economic implications of globalization for women are traced in terms of the employment generated by the expansion of global trade and production. In addition, this article considers the response of the international women's movement to the increasing level of economic globalization, as well as the challenges for the global incorporation of gender issues. It concludes by citing a project initiated in Norwich called ¿Moving the Goalposts,¿ a project which aims to promote girls¿ football in an area around Mombasa in Kenya.

  4. Maximum-entropy clustering algorithm and its global convergence analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG; Zhihua

    2001-01-01

    [1]Bezdek, J. C., Pattern Recognition with Fuzzy Objective Function Algorithm. New York: Plenum, 1981.[2]Krishnapuram, R., Keller, J., A possibilistic approach to clustering, IEEE Trans. on Fuzzy Systems, 1993, 1(2): 98.[3]Yair, E., Zeger, K., Gersho, A., Competitive learning and soft competition for vector quantizer design, IEEE Trans on Signal Processing, 1992, 40(2): 294.[4]Pal, N. R., Bezdek, J. C., Tsao, E. C. K., Generalized clustering networks and Kohonen's self-organizing scheme, IEEE Trans on Neural Networks, 1993, 4(4): 549.[5]Karayiannis, N. B., Bezdek, J. C., Pal, N. R. et al., Repair to GLVQ: a new family of competitive learning schemes, IEEE Trans on Neural Networks, 1996, 7(5): 1062.[6]Karayiannis, N. B., Pai, P. I., Fuzzy algorithms for learning vector quantization, IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, 1996, 7(5): 1196.[7]Karayiannis, N. B., A methodology for constructing fuzzy algorithms for learning vector quantization, IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, 1997, 8(3): 505.[8]Karayiannis, N. B., Bezdek, J. C., An integrated approach to fuzzy learning vector quantization and fuzzy C-Means clustering, IEEE Trans. on Fuzzy Systems, 1997, 5(4): 622.[9]Li Xing-si, An efficient approach to nonlinear minimax problems, Chinese Science Bulletin? 1992, 37(10): 802.[10]Li Xing-si, An efficient approach to a class of non-smooth optimization problems, Science in China, Series A,1994, 37(3): 323.[11]. Zangwill, W., Non-linear Programming: A Unified Approach, Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1969.[12]. Fletcher, R., Practical Methods of Optimization,2nd ed., New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987.[13]. Zhang Zhihua, Zheng Nanning, Wang Tianshu, Behavioral analysis and improving of generalized LVQ neural network, Acta Automatica Sinica, 1999, 25(5): 582.[14]. Kirkpatrick, S., Gelatt, C. D., Vecchi, M. P., Optimization by simulated annealing, Science, 1983, 220(3): 671.[15]. Ross, K., Deterministic annealing for

  5. Cold gas in cluster cores: Global stability analysis and non-linear simulations of thermal instability

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhury, Prakriti Pal

    2015-01-01

    We perform global linear stability analysis and idealized numerical simulations in global thermal balance to understand the condensation of cold gas from hot/virial atmospheres (coronae), in particular the intracluster medium (ICM). We pay particular attention to geometry (e.g., spherical versus plane-parallel) and the nature of the gravitational potential. Global linear analysis gives a similar value for the fastest growing thermal instability modes in spherical and Cartesian geometries. Simulations and observations suggest that cooling in halos critically depends on the ratio of the cooling time to the free-fall time ($t_{cool}/t_{ff}$). Extended cold gas condenses out of the ICM only if this ratio is smaller than a threshold value close to 10. Previous works highlighted the difference between the nature of cold gas condensation in spherical and plane-parallel atmospheres; namely, cold gas condensation appeared easier in spherical atmospheres. This apparent difference due to geometry arises because the prev...

  6. Global Multi-Level Analysis of the ‘Scientific Food Web'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazloumian, Amin; Helbing, Dirk; Lozano, Sergi; Light, Robert P.; Börner, Katy

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a network-based index analyzing excess scientific production and consumption to perform a comprehensive global analysis of scholarly knowledge production and diffusion on the level of continents, countries, and cities. Compared to measures of scientific production and consumption such as number of publications or citation rates, our network-based citation analysis offers a more differentiated picture of the `ecosystem of science'. Quantifying knowledge flows between 2000 and 2009, we identify global sources and sinks of knowledge production. Our knowledge flow index reveals, where ideas are born and consumed, thereby defining a global `scientific food web'. While Asia is quickly catching up in terms of publications and citation rates, we find that its dependence on knowledge consumption has further increased.

  7. The management century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiechel, Walter

    2012-11-01

    In 1886, addressing the nascent American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Henry R. Towne proposed that "the management of works" be considered a modern art--thereby heralding the Management Century, when management as we know it came into being and shaped the world in which we work. Kiechel, a past editorial director of Harvard Business Publishing, elucidates the three eras that punctuate this period: the years leading up to World War II, during which scientific exactitude gave wings to a new managerial elite; the early postwar decades, managerialism's apogee of self-confidence and a time when wartime principles of strategy were adapted, sometimes ruthlessly, to the running of companies; and the 1980s to the present, years that saw fast-moving changes, disequilibrium, and a servitude to market forces but also ushered in globalism, unprecedented innovation, and heightened expectations about how workers are to be treated. Along the way he examines the contributions of thinkers such as Frederick Taylor, Elton Mayo, Peter Drucker, and Michael Porter. What lies ahead? Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the 21st-century company, Kiechel posits, is to truly free the spark of human imagination from the organization's tidal pull toward the status quo. There's almost always a better way, he concludes--and management will continue to seek it.

  8. Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karandish, Fatemeh; Mousavi, Seyed-Saeed

    2016-12-01

    For a 120-year period, the projected effects of climate change on annual, seasonal, and monthly potential evapotranspiration (ETo) and green water deficit (GWD) were analyzed involving the associated uncertainties for five climatic zones of Iran. Analysis was carried out using data obtained from 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2, and B1 which were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project a positive change in both ETo and GWD. A total of 5.8-19.8 % increase in annual ETo, drier than normal wet seasons, as well as 2.3-56.4 % increase in ETo during December-March period well represent a probable increase in the hydrological water requirement in Iran under global warming. Regarding GWD, the country will experience more arid years requiring 113.7 × 103-576.8 × 103 Mm3 more water to supply annual atmospheric water demand. Semi-arid and Mediterranean regions, principal agricultural producer areas of Iran, will be the most vulnerable part of the country due to 1-38.6 % increase in annual GWD under climate change. In addition, water scarcity for irrigated agriculture will enhance in all climatic zones due to 0.9-41 % increase GWD in June-August. However, rain-fed agriculture might be less affected in the hyper-humid and Mediterranean regions because of 1.1-105.3 % reduction in GWD during wet season. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis revealed that given results for monthly timescale as well as those for times and regions with lower ETo will be the most uncertain. Based on the results, suitable adaptation solutions are highly required to be undertaken to relieve the extra pressure on the decreased blue water resources in the future.

  9. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 3 - vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. In this paper, we report updated findings in the field of FMD vaccine research. This paper consists of the following four sections: 1) Research priorities identified in the 2010 GFRA gap ana...

  10. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

  11. An Analysis of Social Studies Textbooks in Turkey: From National Citizenship to Global Citizenship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersoy, Arife Figen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine Social Studies textbooks in terms of national and global citizenship. The research was carried out using qualitative research methodologies. Interpretive thematic analysis was used to examine the social studies textbooks from 4th grade through 8th grade. The analyses showed that the Social Studies textbooks…

  12. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 7 - pathogenesis and molecular biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the GFRA (Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance) conducted a gap analysis of FMD (Foot-and-Mouth Disease) research. This work has been updated and reported in a series of papers, in this article we report findings in the fields of 1) pathogenesis and 2) molecular biology. The arti...

  13. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  14. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Voss, F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river

  15. Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, F.; Fensholt, R.; Verbesselt, J.; Grogan, K.; Horion, S.; Wang, Y.

    2015-01-01

    As a way to understand vegetation changes, trend analysis on NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) time series data have been widely performed at regional to global scales. However, most long-term NDVI datasets are based upon multiple sensor systems and unsuccessful corrections related to se

  16. Finite-time analysis of global projective synchronization on coloured networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cai Guoliang; Jiang Shengqin; Cai Shuiming; Tian Lixin

    2016-03-01

    A novel finite-time analysis is given to investigate the global projective synchronization on coloured networks. Some less conservative conditions are derived by utilizing finite-time control techniques and Lyapunov stability theorem. In addition, two illustrative numerical simulations are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results.

  17. Global Indicators Analysis and Consultancy Experience Insights into Correlation between Entrepreneurial Activities and Business Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovan Krivokapić

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Many researches and practical experiences clearly indicate the existence of a strong relationship between entrepreneurial activities and the business environment in which these activities are initiated. Although this topic has been quite ignored until the late twentieth century, a lot of studies and consulting practice have contributed to the fact that there are now a number of theories concerning mentioned correlation. These theories aim to offer a model that would provide better utilization of the possibilities from the business environment which could be very important for the development from both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects. An increasing number of articles on this topic says enough about its importance, and numerous researches by many reputable globally recognized institutions go in favor of this claim. There are many indicators that observe the economic situation in a country or a region from different aspects, so the analyses of these indicators make it possible to determine the specific relationships between entrepreneurial activities and the local and the global business environment. Given the complexity of these relations, the impact cannot be observed partially, without taking into consideration other important factors, but more detailed analyses, however, result in some useful conclusions, which in the proper context can have a positive impact on many economic factors. It is very important to emphasize the fact that the correlation between the business environment and entrepreneurial activities is bidirectional, since this influence is mutual, so that changes in one of these factors can and usually cause some modifications in the other. Frequent series of such iterations actually lead to changes in the business environment, while entrepreneurial activity changes its shape and affects the economy of a country or a region, which is of particular importance for its competitiveness in the era of globalization.

  18. Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Global Water and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chen, Junye

    2009-01-01

    In the Summer of 2009, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) will have completed 28 years of global satellite data analyses. Here, we characterize the global water and energy budgets of MERRA, compared with available observations and the latest reanalyses. In this analysis, the climatology of the global average components are studied as well as the separate land and ocean averages. In addition, the time series of the global averages are evaluated. For example, the global difference of precipitation and evaporation generally shows the influence of water vapor observations on the system. Since the observing systems change in time, especially remotely sensed observations of water, significant temporal variations can occur across the 28 year record. These then are also closely connected to changes in the atmospheric energy and water budgets. The net imbalance of the energy budget at the surface can be large and different signs for different reanalyses. In MERRA, the imbalance of energy at the surface tends to improve with time being the smallest during the most recent and abundant satellite observations.

  19. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Performance of Global and Local Berry Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikelis Grivins

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this paper is twofold: to comparatively analyze the social performance of global and local berry supply chains and to explore the ways in which the social dimension is embedded in the overall performance of food supply chains. To achieve this goal, the social performance of five global and local food supply chains in two countries are analyzed: wild blueberry supply chains in Latvia and cultivated raspberry supply chains in Serbia. The study addresses two research questions: (1 What is the social performance of the local and global supply chains? (2 How can references to context help improve understanding of the social dimension and social performance of food supply chains? To answer these questions, two interlinked thematic sets of indicators (attributes are used—one describing labor relations and the other describing power relations. These lists are then contextualized by examining the micro-stories of the actors involved in these supply chains. An analysis of the chosen attributes reveals that global chains perform better than local chains. However, a context-sensitive analysis from the perspective of embedded markets and communities suggests that the social performance of food chains is highly context-dependent, relational, and affected by actors’ abilities to negotiate values, norms, and the rules embedded within these chains, both global and local. The results illustrate that the empowerment of the chains’ weakest actors can lead to a redefining of the meanings that performance assessments rely on.

  20. A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

    2014-09-01

    High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

  1. Global Stability Analysis for an Internet Congestion Control Model with a Time-Varying Link Capacity

    CERN Document Server

    Rezaie, B; Analoui, M; Khorsandi, S

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a global stability analysis is given for a rate-based congestion control system modeled by a nonlinear delayed differential equation. The model determines the dynamics of a single-source single-link network, with a time-varying capacity of link and a fixed communication delay. We obtain a sufficient delay-independent conditions on system parameters under which global asymptotic stability of the system is guarantied. The proof is based on an extension of Lyapunov-Krasovskii theorem for a class of nonlinear time-delay systems. The numerical simulations for a typical scenario justify the theoretical results.

  2. Global Analysis of a Virus Dynamics Model with General Incidence Function and Cure Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A virus dynamics model with logistic function, general incidence function, and cure rate is considered. By carrying out mathematical analysis, we show that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number ℛ0≤1. If ℛ0>1, then the infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some assumptions. Furthermore, we also obtain the conditions for which the model exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution. Examples are provided to support our analytical conclusions.

  3. Global Analysis of New Malaria Intrahost Models with a Competitive Exclusion Principle

    CERN Document Server

    Iggidr, Abderrahman; Sallet, Gauthier; Tewa, Jean-Jules; 10.1137/050643271

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we propose a malaria within-host model with k classes of age for the parasitized red blood cells and n strains for the parasite. We provide a global analysis for this model. A competitive exclusion principle holds. If R0, the basic reproduction number, satisfies R0 1, then generically there is a unique endemic equilibrium which corresponds to the endemic stabilization of the most virulent parasite strain and to the extinction of all the other parasites strains. We prove that this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable on the positive orthant if a mild sufficient condition is satisfied.

  4. GLOBAL STABILITY ANALYSIS IN CELLULAR NEURAL NETWORKS WITH UNBOUNDED TIME DELAYS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张继业

    2004-01-01

    Without assuming the boundedness and differentiability of the activation functions,the conditions ensuring existence,uniqueness,and global asymptotical stability of the equilibrium point of cellular neural networks with unbounded time delays and variable delays were studied.Using the idea of vector Liapunov method,the intero-differential inequalities with unbounded delay and variable delays were constructed.By the stability analysis of the intero-differential inequalities,the sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of cellular neural networks were obtained.

  5. Energy for Germany 2000. Facts, views and positions in a global trend. Goals of the global and national policies in the 21st century: Competitive strength, assured supply, environmental compatibility; Energie fuer Deutschland 2000. Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext. Schwerpunktthema 'Ziel globaler und nationaler Energiepolitik im 21. Jahrhundert: Wettbewerbsfaehig - versorgungssicher - umweltvertraeglich'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    The publication is based on the publication 'Energy for Tomorrow's World - Acting Now.', which was published by the World Energy Council in 2000. It presents an analysis of the current situation and contains suggestions for actions that should be taken in the period up to 2020. While national energy policy will still be required, it can only be successful if global aspects are not neglected. This includes the consideration of the responsibility of the industrial nations for third world countries. The energy concept presented here intends to take account of the decisive global aspects. [German] Die Darstellung der globalen Aspekte stuetzt sich auf die Standortbestimmung 2000 des Weltenergierates 'Energy for Tomorrow's World - Acting Now.'. Diese Standortbestimmung unterzieht die Anfang der 90er Jahre erschienene globale Studie des Weltenergierates einer kritischen Ueberpruefung, stellt Abweichungen von den damals angenommenen Entwicklungsperspektiven fest und gibt vor allem konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen fuer die Zeit bis zum Jahr 2020, also fuer die Zeitspanne, die konkret ueberschaubar und gestaltbar ist. Die neue Standortbestimmung des Weltenergierates unterstreicht, dass nationale Energiepolitik zwar weiterhin notwendig ist, aber nur dann auf Dauer erfolgreich sein wird, wenn sie auf diese globalen Aspekte ausgerichtet ist. Dazu gehoert auch, dass westliche, entwickelte Laender sich bewusst sind, dass eine nationale Energiepolitik zu Lasten der Dritten Welt nicht nur keine Zukunft hat, sondern vor allem nicht zu verantworten ist. Dies gilt natuerlich ebenso fuer die Umweltpolitik. An diesen Massstaeben wird sich auch das konkrete Energiekonzept messen lassen muessen, das nun fuer die Bundesrepublik Deutschland auf der Basis des 'Energiedialogs 2000' erarbeitet werden soll. Mit der hier vorgelegten Publikation will das Deutsche Nationale Komitee des Weltenergierates dazu beitragen, dass in diesem Energiekonzept die

  6. BISON: bio-interface for the semi-global analysis of network patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Besemann Christopher

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The large amount of genomics data that have accumulated over the past decade require extensive data mining. However, the global nature of data mining, which includes pattern mining, poses difficulties for users who want to study specific questions in a more local environment. This creates a need for techniques that allow a localized analysis of globally determined patterns. Results We developed a tool that determines and evaluates global patterns based on protein property and network information, while providing all the benefits of a perspective that is targeted at biologist users with specific goals and interests. Our tool uses our own data mining techniques, integrated into current visualization and navigation techniques. The functionality of the tool is discussed in the context of the transcriptional network of regulation in the enteric bacterium Escherichia coli. Two biological questions were asked: (i Which functional categories of proteins (identified by hidden Markov models are regulated by a regulator with a specific domain? (ii Which regulators are involved in the regulation of proteins that contain a common hidden Markov model? Using these examples, we explain the gene-centered and pattern-centered analysis that the tool permits. Conclusion In summary, we have a tool that can be used for a wide variety of applications in biology, medicine, or agriculture. The pattern mining engine is global in the way that patterns are determined across the entire network. The tool still permits a localized analysis for users who want to analyze a subportion of the total network. We have named the tool BISON (Bio-Interface for the Semi-global analysis Of Network patterns.

  7. Theory and methods of global stability analysis for high arch dam

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The global stability of high arch dam is one of the key problems in the safety study of arch dams,but no feasible method with theoretical basis is available.In this paper,based on the stability theory of mechanical system,it is demonstrated that the global failure of high arch dams belongs to a physical instability starting from local strength failure,which is the extreme point instability according to the characteristics of load-displacement curve obtained from the failure process of dam-foundation system. So the global failure of dam-foundation system should be studied with the stability theory of mechanical system.It is also pointed out that the current stability analysis methods used in engineering are consistent with the stability theory,but not established according to the mechanical system stability theory directly.A perfect method can be obtained through the study of physical disturbance equations.

  8. Retrospective analysis of "new" flame retardants in the global atmosphere under the GAPS Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sum Chi; Sverko, Ed; Harner, Tom; Pozo, Karla; Barresi, Enzo; Schachtschneider, JoAnne; Zaruk, Donna; DeJong, Maryl; Narayan, Julie

    2016-10-01

    A retrospective analysis was conducted on air samples that were collected in 2005 under the Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) Network around the time period when the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants came into force. Results are presented for several new flame retardants, including hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), which was recently listed under the Convention (2013). These results represent the first global-scale distributions in air for these compounds. The targeted compounds are shown to have unique global distributions in air, which highlights the challenges in understanding the sources and environmental fate of each chemical, and ultimately in their assessments as persistent organic pollutants. The study also demonstrates the feasibility of using the PUF disk passive air sampler to study these new flame retardants in air, many of which exist entirely in the particle-phase as demonstrated in this study using a KOA-based partitioning model.

  9. The Analysis of the Impact of Globalization on Employment in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gryshkin Vadym O.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is analyzing the impact of globalization on employment in Ukraine and studying foreign experience in regulation of the labor market under conditions of globalization. The theoretical aspects of employment of population at the stage of market transformation of economy have been analyzed. The comprehensive analysis of the current state of employment in Ukraine has been conducted. The dynamics of the main indicators of employment of population and labor migration has been considered and analyzed. The shortcomings in the mechanism of employment regulation are revealed and measures to overcome them on the basis of the positive experience of developed countries are proposed. The necessity of adapting the foreign experience to the Ukrainian realities and the possibility of its use in the national territory is justified. The main tasks of the state policy on regulating the employment of Ukraine’s population under conditions of globalization are presented.

  10. A global analysis of the seaward salt marsh extent: The importance of tidal range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balke, Thorsten; Stock, Martin; Jensen, Kai; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Kleyer, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Despite the growing interest in ecosystem services provided by intertidal wetlands, we lack sufficient understanding of the processes that determine the seaward extent of salt marsh vegetation on tidal flats. With the present study, we aim to establish a globally valid demarcation between tidal flats and salt marsh vegetation in relation to tidal range. By comparing results from a regional GIS study with a global literature search on the salt marsh-tidal flat border, we are able to define the global critical elevation, above which salt marsh plants can grow in the intertidal zone. Moreover, we calculate inundation characteristics from global tide gauge records to determine inundation duration and frequency at this predicted salt marsh-tidal flat border depending on tidal range. Our study shows that the height difference between the lowest elevation of salt marsh pioneer vegetation and mean high water increases logarithmically with tidal range when including macrotidal salt marshes. Hence, the potentially vegetated section of the tidal frame below mean high water does not proportionally increase with tidal range. The data analysis suggests that inundation frequency rather than duration defines the global lower elevational limit of vascular salt marsh plants on tidal flats. This is critical information to better estimate sea level rise and coastal change effects on lateral marsh development.

  11. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF SPECTRA OF THE PO2 RADICAL IN THE GAS PHASE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU YU-YAN; LIU XIAO-YON; LIU HONG-PING; GUo YUAN-QING; HUANG GUANG-MING; DUAN CHUAN-XI

    2000-01-01

    A global analysis of all available and identified spectra of the PO2 radical has been performed. In this analysis, the infrared spectra of the v3 band, the microwave and far infrared laser magnetic resonance transitions in the ground state are fitted simultaneously to the effective Hamiltonian for asymmetric top molecules. Since the analysis absorbs reliable experimental data extensively, it bears the most precise and most complete set of molecular constants for PO2. These molecular constants can be used to reproduce the spectra of PO2 accurately. Attention is also paid to the similarity and difference between PO2 and NO2.

  12. Analysis on the Orientation of Marriage Value in the 18th-19th Century of England through Pride and Prejudice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Qiu-ji

    2013-01-01

    “It is truth universally acknowledged that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife.” Almost two centuries later, the deep impression on readers left by the opening sentence of Pride and Prejudice has not decreased because of their changing literary taste. Jane Austin, the author of Pride and Prejudice, was one of the famous realistic writers in English literature in the nineteenth century. Pride and Prejudice is Austin’s representative work. There were no earthshaking events, no dreadful disasters, no sharp contradictions and no romantic legends in Authin’s novels. Time and space were small in her novels. She wrote how a marriageable woman could find a satisfactory husband. She described many kinds of love and marriage of different women. She expressed her own original views of marriage in her works.In Pride and Prejudice Austin wrote four marriage types: ideal Elizabeth and Darcy, realistic Charlotte and Collins, felicitous Jane and Bingley, unhappy Lydiard Wickham. She pointed out emphatically economic consideration is the bonds of wedlock and love. She said marriage is not determined by property and family status. It is unwise to marry without money, but it is wrong to marry for money; the marriage settled by love is happy and ideal. The thesis explicates that Austin’s view of marriage was progressive, advocated by her focus on the equality between men and women. She emphasized marriage should be of equal importance both by love and by economic consideration, but love plays the guiding role. She revealed the connotation of marriage. She also analyses the marriage value in the 18th-19th century .Her exposure is of great realistic significance to the society today.

  13. Analysis of an Unusual Mirror in a 16th-Century Painting: A Museum Exercise for Physics Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Sudha; Lamelas, Frank

    2017-04-01

    Physics students at Worcester State University visit the Worcester Art Museum (WAM) at the end of a special 100-level course called Physics in Art. The students have studied geometrical optics, and they have been introduced to concepts in atomic physics. The purpose of the museum tour is to show how physics-based techniques can be used in a nontraditional lab setting. Other examples of the use of museum-based art in physics instruction include analyses of Pointillism and image resolution, and of reflections in soap bubbles in 17- and 18th-century paintings.

  14. Global brain gene expression analysis links glutamatergic and GABAergic alterations to suicide and major depression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adolfo Sequeira

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Most studies investigating the neurobiology of depression and suicide have focused on the serotonergic system. While it seems clear that serotonergic alterations play a role in the pathogenesis of these major public health problems, dysfunction in additional neurotransmitter systems and other molecular alterations may also be implicated. Microarray expression studies are excellent screening tools to generate hypotheses about additional molecular processes that may be at play. In this study we investigated brain regions that are known to be implicated in the neurobiology of suicide and major depression are likely to represent valid global molecular alterations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed gene expression analysis using the HG-U133AB chipset in 17 cortical and subcortical brain regions from suicides with and without major depression and controls. Total mRNA for microarray analysis was obtained from 663 brain samples isolated from 39 male subjects, including 26 suicide cases and 13 controls diagnosed by means of psychological autopsies. Independent brain samples from 34 subjects and animal studies were used to control for the potential confounding effects of comorbidity with alcohol. Using a Gene Ontology analysis as our starting point, we identified molecular pathways that may be involved in depression and suicide, and performed follow-up analyses on these possible targets. Methodology included gene expression measures from microarrays, Gene Score Resampling for global ontological profiling, and semi-quantitative RT-PCR. We observed the highest number of suicide specific alterations in prefrontal cortical areas and hippocampus. Our results revealed alterations of synaptic neurotransmission and intracellular signaling. Among these, Glutamatergic (GLU and GABAergic related genes were globally altered. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR results investigating expression of GLU and GABA receptor subunit genes were consistent with

  15. Floating Migration, Education, and Globalization in the US Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mirerza; Rios-Villarini, Nadjah

    2012-01-01

    This article follows a research project that collects oral histories of bilingual education teachers from Puerto Rico who migrated to the US Virgin Islands in the late twentieth century. The teachers' oral histories are used as a case study that provides in-depth analysis of competing discourses related to education and globalization in these two…

  16. Global and Koopman modes analysis of sound generation in mixing layers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, G.; Robinet, J.-C.; Gloerfelt, X. [Laboratoire DynFluid, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, 151 Boulevard de l’Hopital, 75013 Paris (France); Alizard, F. [Laboratoire DynFluid, CNAM, 151 Boulevard de l’Hopital, 75013 Paris (France)

    2013-12-15

    It is now well established that linear and nonlinear instability waves play a significant role in the noise generation process for a wide variety of shear flows such as jets or mixing layers. In that context, the problem of acoustic radiation generated by spatially growing instability waves of two-dimensional subsonic and supersonic mixing layers are revisited in a global point of view, i.e., without any assumption about the base flow, in both a linear and a nonlinear framework by using global and Koopman mode decompositions. In that respect, a timestepping technique based on disturbance equations is employed to extract the most dynamically relevant coherent structures for both linear and nonlinear regimes. The present analysis proposes thus a general strategy for analysing the near-field coherent structures which are responsible for the acoustic noise in these configurations. In particular, we illustrate the failure of linear global modes to describe the noise generation mechanism associated with the vortex pairing for the subsonic regime whereas they appropriately explain the Mach wave radiation of instability waves in the supersonic regime. By contrast, the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) analysis captures both the near-field dynamics and the far-field acoustics with a few number of modes for both configurations. In addition, the combination of DMD and linear global modes analyses provides new insight about the influence on the radiated noise of nonlinear interactions and saturation of instability waves as well as their interaction with the mean flow.

  17. State of the Earth’s cryosphere at the beginning of the 21st century : glaciers, global snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost and periglacial environments: Chapter A in Satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Richard S.; Ferrigno, Jane G.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Ferrigno, Jane G.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter is the tenth in a series of 11 book-length chapters, collectively referred to as “this volume,” in the series U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World. In the other 10 chapters, each of which concerns a specific glacierized region of Earth, the authors used remotely sensed images, primarily from the Landsat 1, 2, and 3 series of spacecraft, in order to analyze that glacierized region and to monitor changes in its glaciers. Landsat images, acquired primarily during the period 1972 through 1981, were used by an international team of glaciologists and other scientists to study the various glacierized regions and (or) to discuss related glaciological topics. In each glacierized region, the present distribution of glaciers within its geographic area is compared, wherever possible, with historical information about their past areal extent. The atlas provides an accurate regional inventory of the areal extent of glacier ice on our planet during the 1970s as part of an expanding international scientific effort to measure global environmental change on the Earth’s surface. However, this chapter differs from the other 10 in its discussion of observed changes in all four elements of the Earth’s cryosphere (glaciers, snow cover, floating ice, and permafrost) in the context of documented changes in all components of the Earth System. Human impact on the planet at the beginning of the 21st century is pervasive. The focus of Chapter A is on changes in the cryosphere and the importance of long-term monitoring by a variety of sensors carried on Earth-orbiting satellites or by a ground-based network of observatories in the case of permafrost. The chapter consists of five parts. The first part provides an introduction to the Earth System, including the interrelationships of the geosphere (cryosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere), the biosphere, climate processes, biogeochemical cycles, and the

  18. New image analysis method for the estimation of global and spatial changes in fruit microstructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieczywek, Piotr M.; Cybulska, Justyna; Dyki, Barbara; Konopacka, Dorota; Mieszczakowska-Frąc, Monika; Zdunek, Artur

    2016-04-01

    A new image analysis method for the spatial characterization of microscopy images of fruit microstructure is proposed in order to analyse the heterogeneous microstructure of unprocessed fruit and the possible inhomogeneous effects of various technological treatments on this microstructure. The micro-structure of tissue samples was characterized using the global statistics of size and shape parameters calculated for all visible objects. Global analysis was supported by a novel algorithm that allowed for drawing of the maps of the cell wall fraction from microscopy images and for the analysis of both global and local compaction or loosening of tissue. The spatial distribution of the cell wall fraction was visualised in the convenient form of bivariate histograms. To test the developed image analysis protocols, structural changes resulting from ultrasonic and osmotic treatments of apple tissue samples were studied. Peeled and cored apples were submersed in a liquid medium (distilled water or 60 °Bx sucrose solution) for 45 and 90 min with and without ultrasonic treatment. After these treatment procedures, tissue samples were cut into slices, stained and imaged using a microscope. The proposed method allowed to characterise the effects of different sample treatments.

  19. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  20. Fossil fuels in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Stephen F

    2005-12-01

    An overview of the importance of fossil fuels in supplying the energy requirements of the 21st century, their future supply, and the impact of their use on global climate is presented. Current and potential alternative energy sources are considered. It is concluded that even with substantial increases in energy derived from other sources, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for much of the 21st century and the sequestration of CO2 will be an increasingly important requirement.

  1. A standardised, holistic framework for concept-map analysis combining topological attributes and global morphologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Yoshi Buhmann

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the diverse uses of concept maps in teaching and educational research, we have developed a systematic approach to their structural analysis. The basis for our method is a unique topological normalisation procedure whereby a concept map is first stripped of its content and subsequently geometrically re-arranged into a standardised layout as a maximally balanced tree following set rules. This enables a quantitative analysis of the normalised maps to read off basic structural parameters: numbers of concepts and links, diameter, in- and ex-radius and degree sequence and subsequently calculate higher parameters: cross-linkage, balance and dimension. Using these parameters, we define characteristic global morphologies: ‘Disconnected’, ‘Imbalanced’, ‘Broad’, ‘Deep’ and ‘Interconnected’ in the normalised map structure. Our proposed systematic approach to concept-map analysis combining topological normalisation, determination of structural parameters and global morphological classification is a standardised, easily applicable and reliable framework for making the inherent structure of a concept map tangible. It overcomes some of the subjectivity inherent in analysing and interpreting maps in their original form while also avoiding the pitfalls of an atomistic analysis often accompanying quantitative concept-map analysis schemes. Our framework can be combined and cross-compared with a content analysis to obtain a coherent view of the two key elements of a concept map: structure and content. The informed structural analysis may form the starting point for interpreting the underlying knowledge structures and pedagogical meanings.

  2. Global Security Rule Sets An Analysis of the Current Global Security Environment and Rule Sets Governing Nuclear Weapons Release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mollahan, K; Nattrass, L

    2004-09-30

    America is in a unique position in its history. In maintaining its position as the world's only superpower, the US consistently finds itself taking on the role of a global cop, chief exporter of hard and soft power, and primary impetus for globalization. A view of the current global situation shows an America that can benefit greatly from the effects of globalization and soft power. Similarly, America's power can be reduced significantly if globalization and its soft power are not handled properly. At the same time, America has slowly come to realize that its next major adversary is not a near peer competitor but terrorism and disconnected nations that seek nuclear capabilities. In dealing with this new threat, America needs to come to terms with its own nuclear arsenal and build a security rule set that will establish for the world explicitly what actions will cause the US to consider nuclear weapons release. This rule set; however, needs to be established with sensitivity to the US's international interests in globalization and soft power. The US must find a way to establish its doctrine governing nuclear weapons release without threatening other peaceful nations in the process.

  3. Efficient Approximate Method of Global Reliability Analysis for Offshore Platforms in the Ice Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Ice load is the dominative load in the design of offshore platforms in the ice zone, and the extreme ice load is the key factor that affects the safety of platforms. The present paper studies the statistical properties of the global resistance and the extreme responses of the jacket platforms in Bohai Bay, considering the randomness of ice load, dead load, steel elastic modulus, yield strength and structural member dimensions. Then, based on the above results, an efficient approximate method of the global reliability analysis for the offshore platforms is proposed, which converts the implicit nonlinear performance function in the conventional reliability analysis to linear explicit one. Finally, numerical examples of JZ20-2 MSW, JZ20-2NW and JZ20-2 MUQ offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay demonstrate the satisfying efficiency, accuracy and applicability of the proposed method.

  4. A comprehensive analysis of physiologically equivalent temperature changes of Iranian selected stations for the last half century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Kovács, Attila; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    As a preliminary and major step for land use planning of the coming years, the study of variability of the past decades' climatic conditions with comprehensive indicators is of high importance. Given the fact that one of the affected areas by climatic change includes variability of thermal comfort, this study uses the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) to identify and evaluate bioclimatic conditions of 40 meteorological stations in Iran. In this study, PET changes for the period of 1960 to 2010 are analyzed, with the use of Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Pearson parametric method. The study focuses particularly on the diversity in spatio-temporal distribution of Iran's bioclimatic conditions. The findings show that the mean frequency percentage of days with comfort is 12.9 % according to the total number of selected stations. The maximum and minimum frequency percentage with values of 17.4 and 10.3 belong to Kerman and Chabahar stations, respectively. The findings of long-term trend analysis for the period of 1960-2010 show that 55 % of the stations have significant increasing trend in terms of thermal comfort class based on the Pearson method, while it is 40 % based on Mann-Kendall test. The results indicate that the highest frequency of days with thermal comfort in the southern coasts of Iran relates to the end of autumn and winter, nevertheless, such ideal conditions for the coastal cities of Caspian Sea and even central stations of Iran relate to mid-spring and mid-autumn. Late summer and early autumn along with late spring can be identified as the most ideal times in the west and northwest part of Iran. In addition, the most important inhibiting factors of thermal comfort prove to be different across the regions of Iran. For instance, in the southern coasts, warm to very hot bioclimatic events and in the west and northwest regions, cold to very cold conditions turn out to be the most important inhibiting factors. When considering the variations

  5. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Wilkerson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew more than 31 million flights, burned nearly 190 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is an important component for modeling aviation climate impacts. Here, we analyze global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006. Data, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool. For both years, analysis of flight data shows 93 percent of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69 percent between 30 N and 60 N latitudes; 77 (75 percent was burned above 7 km in 2004 (2006. This activity led to 177 (162 Tg of carbon from CO2 globally in 2004 (2006, with half being emitted over three dominant regions: United States, Europe, East Asia. The difference between 2004 and 2006 is a result of fewer flights in 2006 and the methodology used to compute fuel burn and emissions from those flights. We also show that despite receiving only a few percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a concentration of emissions of the same order of magnitude as the global average. The following is a summary of this data which illustrates the global and regional aviation emissions footprints for 2004 and 2006, and provides temporal and spatial distribution statistics of several emissions constituents. Finally, we show that 87 (85 percent of all flights in 2004 (2006 are short-haul missions, yet those flights are responsible for only 38 (39 percent of total emissions.

  6. Learner Analysis Framework for Globalized E-Learning: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Saxena

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The shift to technology-mediated modes of instructional delivery and increased global connectivity has led to a rise in globalized e-learning programs. Educational institutions face multiple challenges as they seek to design effective, engaging, and culturally competent instruction for an increasingly diverse learner population. The purpose of this study was to explore strategies for expanding learner analysis within the instructional design process to better address cultural influences on learning. A case study approach leveraged the experience of practicing instructional designers to build a framework for culturally competent learner analysis.The study discussed the related challenges and recommended strategies to improve the effectiveness of cross-cultural learner analysis. Based on the findings, a framework for conducting cross-cultural learner analysis to guide the cultural analysis of diverse learners was proposed. The study identified the most critical factors in improving cross-cultural learner analysis as the judicious use of existing research on cross-cultural theories and joint deliberation on the part of all the participants from the management to the learners. Several strategies for guiding and improving the cultural inquiry process were summarized. Barriers and solutions for the requirements are also discussed.

  7. The world as the new local clinic: a critical analysis of three discourses of global medical competency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martimianakis, Maria Athina Tina; Hafferty, Frederic W

    2013-06-01

    The effects of globalization on health are the focus of administrators, educators, policy makers and researchers as they work to consider how best to train and regulate health professionals to practice in a globalized world. This study explores what happens to constructs such as medical competence when the context of medical practice is discursively expanded to include the whole world. An archive of texts was assembled (1970-2011) totaling 1100 items and analyzed using a governmentality approach. Texts were included that articulated rationales for pursuing global education activities, and/or that implicitly or explicitly took a position on medical competencies in relation to practicing medicine in international or culturally diverse contexts, or in dealing with health issues as global concerns. The analysis revealed three distinct visions, representative of a primarily western mentality, for preparing physicians to practice in a globalized world: the universal global physician, the culturally versed global physician and the global physician advocate. Each has its own epistemological relationship to globalization and is supported by an evidence base. All three discourses are active and productive, sometimes within the same context. However, the discourse of the universal global physician is currently the most established. The challenge to policy makers and educators in evolving regulatory frameworks and curricula that are current and relevant necessitates a better understanding of the socio-political effects of globalization on medical education, and the ethical, political, cultural and scientific issues underlying efforts to prepare students to practice competently in a globalized world.

  8. University Reform in the Post-Massification Era in Japan: Analysis of Government Education Policy for the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiko, Yamada

    2001-01-01

    Examines government higher education policy and Japanese higher education reform in the globalization and post-massification eras. Explores the effects of market mechanisms on Japanese higher education policy, the kinds of phenomena that have emerged in this period, and the impact of the government policy shift on Japanese higher education. (EV)

  9. 试析新世纪的越南经济%A Brief Analysis on Vietnam's Economy in the New Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曹丽

    2004-01-01

    Since the turn of the new century, Vietnam has entered a brand new promotion of its economic development as it has implemented its open up policies and the woad economy has turned better. It has fially employed two types of markets, two kinds of driving forces and two kinds of resources to develop its economy and has made great economic achievements. However, problems have also arisen such as the ignorance of quality, inefficiently explored resources, severely polluted environment and fast growing population. All those have led to the bottleneck of containing its economic development. Therefore, it should change its viewpoint to adopt the strategy of combining the development of society and economy in order to shake off the yoke to realize the steady growth and sustainable development of its economy.

  10. Is Cyberbullying a Stand Alone Construct? Using Quantitative Analysis to Evaluate a 21st Century Social Question

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Randa

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a subsample of the 2009 National Crime Victimization Survey, School Crime Supplement (NCVS-SCS, the present study explores the nature of the relationship between cyberbullying and traditional bullying victimization among students aged 12–18. One question of particular interest in the recent cyberbullying literature regards the classification of cyberbullying relative to traditional school yard bullying. As is the case in the cyber victimization literature in general, the question has become whether cyberbullying is an extension of traditional bullying or whether it is a unique independent phenomenon. Using the available data we attempt to address this question by exploring cyberbullying victimization as a standalone construct. Results of exploratory factor analyses suggest that cyberbullying victimization is both interlaced with traditional bullying modalities, and experienced as a unique phenomenon. Our results contribute a 21st century texture and dimension to the traditional construct.

  11. Kernel empirical orthogonal function analysis of 1992-2008 global sea surface height anomaly data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a kernel version of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and its application to detect patterns of interest in global monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies from satellite altimetry acquired during the last 17 years. EOF analysis like principal component...... to large scale ocean currents and particularly to the pulsing of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Large scale ocean events associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation related signals are conveniently concentrated in the first SSH EOF modes. A major difference between the classical linear EOF...

  12. Trends in 100m Wind Speed using Global High-Resolution Downscaled Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The strength and variability of the wind energy resource are expected to be susceptible to the complex changes undergoing Earth's climate system. A variety of physical mechanisms for long-term wind speed changes has been proposed, including modified temperature gradients, shifting storm tracks and altered land use. This study is an analysis of multi-decadal wind speed trends within a high-resolution downscaled global analysis provided by our collaborators at Vestas Wind Systems A/S. We have sought to identify the regions and landscape types that most exhibit long-term changes to wind speed and identify the mechanisms responsible.

  13. Neutron Densities from a Global Analysis of Medium Energy Proton Nucleus Elastic Scattering

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, B C; Kerr, L J

    2003-01-01

    A new method for extracting neutron densities from intermediate energy elastic proton-nucleus scattering observables uses a global Dirac phenomenological (DP) approach based on the Relativistic Impulse Approximation (RIA). Data sets for Ca40, Ca48 and Pb208 in the energy range from 500 MeV to 1040 MeV are considered. The global fits are successful in reproducing the data and in predicting data sets not included in the analysis. Using this global approach, energy independent neutron densities are obtained. The vector point proton density distribution is determined from the empirical charge density after unfolding the proton form factor. The other densities are parametrized. The RMS neutron radius, R_n and the neutron skin thickness S_n obtained from the global fits using the most conservative errors are given as follows: for Ca40 R_n is (3.325 +/- 0.025) fm and S_n (-0.044 +/- 0.036) fm; for Ca48 R_n is (3.463 +/- 0.042) fm and S_n (0.103 +/- 0.045) fm; and for Pb208 R_n is (5.551 +/- 0.038) and S_n (0.116 +/-...

  14. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miina Porkka

    Full Text Available Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965-2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (15% of dietary energy supply increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

  15. Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Fitness Analysis of Global Oil Market: Based on Complex Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minggang; Fang, Guochang; Shao, Shuai

    2016-01-01

    We study the overall topological structure properties of global oil trade network, such as degree, strength, cumulative distribution, information entropy and weight clustering. The structural evolution of the network is investigated as well. We find the global oil import and export networks do not show typical scale-free distribution, but display disassortative property. Furthermore, based on the monthly data of oil import values during 2005.01–2014.12, by applying random matrix theory, we investigate the complex spatiotemporal dynamic from the country level and fitness evolution of the global oil market from a demand-side analysis. Abundant information about global oil market can be obtained from deviating eigenvalues. The result shows that the oil market has experienced five different periods, which is consistent with the evolution of country clusters. Moreover, we find the changing trend of fitness function agrees with that of gross domestic product (GDP), and suggest that the fitness evolution of oil market can be predicted by forecasting GDP values. To conclude, some suggestions are provided according to the results. PMID:27706147

  16. Pigment analysis by Raman microscopy and portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) of thirteenth to fourteenth century illuminations and cuttings from Bologna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin, Tracey D.; Clark, Robin J. H.; Jones, Richard; Gibbs, Robert

    2016-12-01

    Non-destructive pigment analysis by Raman microscopy (RM) and portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) has been carried out on some Bolognese illuminations and cuttings chosen to represent the beginnings, evolution and height of Bolognese illuminated manuscript production. Dating to the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries and held in a private collection, the study provides evidence for the pigments generally used in this period. The results, which are compared with those obtained for other north Italian artwork, show the developments in usage of artistic materials and technique. Also addressed in this study is an examination of the respective roles of RM and pXRF analysis in this area of technical art history. This article is part of the themed issue "Raman spectroscopy in art and archaeology".

  17. Spatial-temporal analysis on climate variation in early Qing dynasty (17th -18th century) using China's chronological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kuan-Hui Elaine; Wang, Pao-Kuan; Fan, I.-Chun; Liao, Yi-Chun; Liao, Hsiung-Ming; Pai, Pi-Ling

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change in the form of extreme, variation, and short- or mid-term fluctuation is now widely conceived to challenge the survival of the human beings and the societies. Meanwhile, improving present and future climate modeling needs a comprehensive understanding of the past climate patterns. Although historical climate modeling has gained substantive progress in recent years based on the new findings from dynamical meteorology, phenology, or paleobiology, less known are the mid- to short-term variations or lower-frequency variabilities at different temporal scale and their regional expressions. Enabling accurate historical climate modeling would heavily rely on the robustness of the dataset that could carry specific time, location, and meteorological information in the continuous temporal and spatial chains. This study thus presents an important methodological innovation to reconstruct historical climate modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales through building a historical climate dataset, based on the Chinese chronicles compiled in a Zhang (2004) edited Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3,000 Years since Zhou Dynasty (1100BC). The dataset reserves the most delicate meteorological data with accurate time, location, meteorological event, duration, and other phonological, social and economic impact information, and is carefully digitalized, coded, and geo-referenced on the Geographical Information System based maps according to Tan's (1982) historical atlas in China. The research project, beginning in January 2015, is a collaborative work among scholars across meteorology, geography, and historical linguistics disciplines. The present research findings derived from the early 100+ years of the Qing dynasty include the following. First, the analysis is based on the sampling size, denoted as cities/counties, n=1398 across the Mainland China in the observation period. Second, the frequencies of precipitation, cold

  18. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 1 - overview of global status and research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Few, if any, animal diseases have a greater impact than footand-mouth disease (FMD). It is highly infectious, has enormous control costs and severe impacts on trade. FMD research is performed in numerous institutions around the world. The Global FMD Research alliance (GFRA) is an international conso...

  19. Technology Resource, Distribution, and Development Characteristics of Global Influenza Virus Vaccine: A Patent Bibliometric Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Chen

    Full Text Available Influenza virus vaccine (IVV is a promising research domain that is closely related to global health matters, which has been acknowledged not only by scientists and technology developers, but also by policy-makers. Meanwhile, patents encompass valuable technological information and reflect the latest technological inventions as well as the innovative capability of a nation. However, little research has examined this up-and-coming research field using patent bibliometric method. Thus, this paper (a designs the technology classification system and search strategy for the identification of IVV; and (b presents a longitudinal analysis of the global IVV development based on the European Patent Office (EPO patents. Bibliometric analysis is used to rank countries, institutions, inventors and technology subfields contributing to IVV technical progress. The results show that the global trends of IVV are a multi-developing feature of variety but an uneven technical resource distribution. Although the synthetic peptide vaccine is a comparatively young field, it already demonstrates the powerful vitality and the enormous development space. With the worldwide competition increasing, all nations especially China should be looking to increase devotion, enhance capability and regard effectiveness of technological innovation.

  20. A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucurachi, S; Borgonovo, E; Heijungs, R

    2016-02-01

    The life cycle assessment (LCA) framework has established itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impact of products. Several works have established the need of integrating the LCA and risk analysis methodologies, due to the several common aspects. One of the ways to reach such integration is through guaranteeing that uncertainties in LCA modeling are carefully treated. It has been claimed that more attention should be paid to quantifying the uncertainties present in the various phases of LCA. Though the topic has been attracting increasing attention of practitioners and experts in LCA, there is still a lack of understanding and a limited use of the available statistical tools. In this work, we introduce a protocol to conduct global sensitivity analysis in LCA. The article focuses on the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and particularly on the relevance of global techniques for the development of trustable impact assessment models. We use a novel characterization model developed for the quantification of the impacts of noise on humans as a test case. We show that global SA is fundamental to guarantee that the modeler has a complete understanding of: (i) the structure of the model and (ii) the importance of uncertain model inputs and the interaction among them.

  1. Technology Resource, Distribution, and Development Characteristics of Global Influenza Virus Vaccine: A Patent Bibliometric Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ning; Liu, Yun; Cheng, Yijie; Liu, Long; Yan, Zhe; Tao, Lixin; Guo, Xiuhua; Luo, Yanxia; Yan, Aoshuang

    2015-01-01

    Influenza virus vaccine (IVV) is a promising research domain that is closely related to global health matters, which has been acknowledged not only by scientists and technology developers, but also by policy-makers. Meanwhile, patents encompass valuable technological information and reflect the latest technological inventions as well as the innovative capability of a nation. However, little research has examined this up-and-coming research field using patent bibliometric method. Thus, this paper (a) designs the technology classification system and search strategy for the identification of IVV; and (b) presents a longitudinal analysis of the global IVV development based on the European Patent Office (EPO) patents. Bibliometric analysis is used to rank countries, institutions, inventors and technology subfields contributing to IVV technical progress. The results show that the global trends of IVV are a multi-developing feature of variety but an uneven technical resource distribution. Although the synthetic peptide vaccine is a comparatively young field, it already demonstrates the powerful vitality and the enormous development space. With the worldwide competition increasing, all nations especially China should be looking to increase devotion, enhance capability and regard effectiveness of technological innovation.

  2. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  3. Learning from Our Global Competitors: A Comparative Analysis of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Education Pipelines in the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Christina M.

    2011-01-01

    Maintaining a competitive edge within the 21st century is dependent on the cultivation of human capital, producing qualified and innovative employees capable of competing within the new global marketplace. Technological advancements in communications technology as well as large scale, infrastructure development has led to a leveled playing field…

  4. The Impact Of Climate Change On Production Of Multiple Food Crops In The 21st Century- An Analysis Based On Two Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Jain, A. K.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change presents potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of climate change effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected climate change trends and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to climate change and adaptive management practices and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate crop adaptation to climate change. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of climate change on the production of row crops (corn, soybean, rice, cotton, sugarcane and wheat) at global and regional scales. The results are compared to the corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of crop adaptation and adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do model differences in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices over the 21st century. ISAM and CLM4.5 have been included in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Both models consider the effects of temperature, light and soil water and nitrogen availability on crop photosynthesis and temperature control on crop phenology and carbon allocation. ISAM also considers the adaptation of crop phenology, carbon allocation and structures growth to drought, light stress and N stress. The effects of model differences on projected crop production are evaluated by performing the following experiments. Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005) and projected atmospheric forcing data (2006-2100) under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different

  5. Lo global y lo local en la colonialidad: prácticas cotidianas en la Nueva Población y Fuerte de Floridablanca (San Julián, Siglo XVIII The global and the local in coloniality: daily practices at Nueva Población y Fuerte de Floridablanca, San Julián Bay, during the eighteenth century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia Bianchi Villelli

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available La expansión colonial de la sociedad moderna fue estudiada recientemente desde varias disciplinas y perspectivas. Desde la arqueología histórica sudamericana en particular se ha discutido la naturaleza homogeneizante de este proceso global en función de reevaluar los diversos contextos específicos en el tiempo y en el espacio. Este trabajo se centra en la articulación entre la escala global y la particular para discutir el lugar asignado a los agentes y procesos locales en la constitución de las sociedades coloniales. A partir de los aportes de la teoría poscolonial latinoamericana, se busca discutir el concepto de sociedad moderna, para así reconocer los legados coloniales. Esta discusión se ilustra con el estudio de la colonización española de la costa patagónica a fines del siglo XVIII, en particular, el caso de la Nueva Población y Fuerte de Floridablanca (Bahía de San Julián, 1780-1784. El estudio de la reproducción y transformación social en Floridablanca se centró en los escenarios sociales no contemplados por la Corona espanola en su planificación colonial. El énfasis en las prácticas cotidianas en una escala pequena permitió un abordaje a la tensión entre las categorías definidas desde el orden colonial y su puesta en práctica.Recently, the colonial expansion of modern society has been studied from various disciplines and theoretical perspectives. South American historical archaeology in particular has discussed the homogenizing nature of this global process in order to reevaluate specific contexts through time and space. This paper is centered on the articulation of the global and the particular and the place assigned to agents and local processes in the formation of colonial societies. Latin American postcolonial theory shines light on this debate through the critical assessment of modern discourse and the acknowledgement of colonial legacies. The discussion is illustrated with a case study from the Spanish

  6. Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yongping; WANG Xiaofeng; YU Runling; QIN Zenghao

    2007-01-01

    As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it.

  7. Corruption, public integrity, and globalization in South-Eastern European states. A comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew I.E. EWOH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The last three decades have witnessed a proliferation of studies on the globalization of corruption or convergence of anticorruption strategies. These studies have been motivated by scholarly concerns from various administrative, economic, and political fields. In view of these interdisciplinary concerns, the purpose of this article is to provide a comparative analysis of corruption phenomena and the demand for public integrity because these developments pertain to the discourse on globalization issues in some South-Eastern European nations within the last decade. The article concludes that the differences observed in these countries are due to their level of maturation in the democratic processes, their stages in the European Union integration process, and the geopolitical condition of each nation, and offers a palatable public policy prescription for achieving a lasting impact in the region.

  8. A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

    2013-01-01

    During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper...... is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...

  9. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  10. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  11. Globalization, Development and International Migration: A Cross-National Analysis of Less-Developed Countries, 1970-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Matthew R.; Kentor, Jeffrey D.

    2009-01-01

    It is widely argued that globalization and economic development are associated with international migration. However, these relationships have not been tested empirically. We use a cross-national empirical analysis to assess the impact of global and national factors on international migration from less-developed countries. An interdisciplinary…

  12. MSSA of globally gridded AAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zotov, Leonid; Schindelegger, Michael; Bizouard, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was applied to 111 years of Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) grid data from ECMWMF 20th Century Reanalysis (ERA-20C) model. Components of zonal atmospheric circulation influencing Length of Day (LOD) were separated. Some of them are related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) global circulation modes, others represent possible trends. Meridional AAM components were processed by complex MSSA. Annual, semiannual components were separated. The maps of influence in the Chandler and annual bands on Polar Motion (PM) were obtained. The regions where the torques come from, influence of friction in the mountains was also analyzed.

  13. Analysis of 50-y record of surface (137)Cs concentrations in the global ocean using the HAM-global database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inomata, Yayoi; Aoyama, Michio; Hirose, Katsumi

    2009-01-01

    We investigated spatial and temporal variations in (137)Cs concentrations in the surface waters of the global ocean for the period from 1957 to 2005 using the "HAM database - a global version". Based on the 0.5-y average value of (137)Cs concentrations in the surface water in each sea area, we classified the temporal variations into four types. (1) In the North Pacific Ocean where there was high fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, the rates of decrease in the (137)Cs concentrations changed over the five decades: the rate of decrease from the 1950s to the 1970s was much faster than that after the 1970s, and the (137)Cs concentrations were almost constant after the 1990s. Latitudinal differences in (137)Cs concentrations in the North Pacific Ocean became small with time. (2) In the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans, the (137)Cs concentrations varied within a constant range in the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting the advection of (137)Cs from areas of high global fallout in the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific Ocean. (3) In the eastern South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (south of 40 degrees S), the concentrations decreased exponentially over the five decades. (4) In the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans, including marginal seas, (137)Cs concentrations were strongly controlled by discharge from nuclear reprocessing plants after the late 1970s. The apparent half-residence times of (137)Cs in the surface waters of the global ocean from 1970 to 2005 ranged from 4.5 to 36.8 years. The apparent half-residence times were longer in the equatorial region and shorter in the higher latitudes. There was no notable difference between the latitudinal distributions of the apparent half-residence times in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. These results suggest that (137)Cs in the North Pacific Ocean is transported to the equatorial, South Pacific, and Indian Oceans by the oceanic circulation.

  14. The global burden of mental, neurological and substance use disorders: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey A Whiteford

    Full Text Available The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010, estimated that a substantial proportion of the world's disease burden came from mental, neurological and substance use disorders. In this paper, we used GBD 2010 data to investigate time, year, region and age specific trends in burden due to mental, neurological and substance use disorders.For each disorder, prevalence data were assembled from systematic literature reviews. DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was used to model prevalence by country, region, age, sex and year. Prevalence data were combined with disability weights derived from survey data to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs. Years lost to premature mortality (YLLs were estimated by multiplying deaths occurring as a result of a given disorder by the reference standard life expectancy at the age death occurred. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs were computed as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.In 2010, mental, neurological and substance use disorders accounted for 10.4% of global DALYs, 2.3% of global YLLs and, 28.5% of global YLDs, making them the leading cause of YLDs. Mental disorders accounted for the largest proportion of DALYs (56.7%, followed by neurological disorders (28.6% and substance use disorders (14.7%. DALYs peaked in early adulthood for mental and substance use disorders but were more consistent across age for neurological disorders. Females accounted for more DALYs in all mental and neurological disorders, except for mental disorders occurring in childhood, schizophrenia, substance use disorders, Parkinson's disease and epilepsy where males accounted for more DALYs. Overall DALYs were highest in Eastern Europe/Central Asia and lowest in East Asia/the Pacific.Mental, neurological and substance use disorders contribute to a significant proportion of disease burden. Health systems can respond by implementing established, cost effective interventions, or by supporting the research necessary to develop

  15. Local and global stability analysis methods of multitime scale neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Baese, Anke

    1996-03-01

    The dynamics of complex neural networks modeling the self-organization process in cortical maps must include the aspects of long and short-term memory. The behavior of the network is such characterized by an equation of neural activity as a fast phenomenon and an equation of synaptic modification as a slow part of the neural system. We present new methods of analyzing the dynamics of a competitive neural system with different time scales: the K- monotone system theory developed by Kamke in 1932 as a global analysis technique and the theory of singular perturbations as a local analysis method. We also show the consequences of the stability analysis on the neural net parameters.

  16. GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  17. 经济全球化程度的量化研究%The Quantitative Analysis of Economic Globalization Extent

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘玉玫; 张芃

    2003-01-01

    Economic globalization is readjusting the structure of production through the global operation of TNCs under the whole world, which based on new science and technology development. The process of involving economic globalization is the course that every country's economy is in harmony with global production system step by step and comes into world economic cycle continually. It makes the measurement of the extent of an economic unit involving economic globalization must use an index system including all the content of involving the world economic cycle. This paper builds up the comprehensive evaluate function through an index system 15 indexes concerning production, investment, commerce and finance, using the principal component analysis method and works out the comprehensive scores of 16 countries including China. Using the hierarchical clustering method, we can define the extent of different countries involving economic globalization on quantity.

  18. Global comparative analysis of ESTs from the southern cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus microplus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pertea Geo

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The southern cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus microplus, is an economically important parasite of cattle and can transmit several pathogenic microorganisms to its cattle host during the feeding process. Understanding the biology and genomics of R. microplus is critical to developing novel methods for controlling these ticks. Results We present a global comparative genomic analysis of a gene index of R. microplus comprised of 13,643 unique transcripts assembled from 42,512 expressed sequence tags (ESTs, a significant fraction of the complement of R. microplus genes. The source material for these ESTs consisted of polyA RNA from various tissues, lifestages, and strains of R. microplus, including larvae exposed to heat, cold, host odor, and acaricide. Functional annotation using RPS-Blast analysis identified conserved protein domains in the conceptually translated gene index and assigned GO terms to those database transcripts which had informative BlastX hits. Blast Score Ratio and SimiTri analysis compared the conceptual transcriptome of the R. microplus database to other eukaryotic proteomes and EST databases, including those from 3 ticks. The most abundant protein domains in BmiGI were also analyzed by SimiTri methodology. Conclusion These results indicate that a large fraction of BmiGI entries have no homologs in other sequenced genomes. Analysis with the PartiGene annotation pipeline showed 64% of the members of BmiGI could not be assigned GO annotation, thus minimal information is available about a significant fraction of the tick genome. This highlights the important insights in tick biology which are likely to result from a tick genome sequencing project. Global comparative analysis identified some tick genes with unexpected phylogenetic relationships which detailed analysis attributed to gene losses in some members of the animal kingdom. Some tick genes were identified which had close orthologues to mammalian genes

  19. Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsypura, Dmytro

    In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following

  20. On the telescopic disks of stars - a review and analysis of stellar observations from the early 17th through the middle 19th centuries

    CERN Document Server

    Graney, Christopher M

    2010-01-01

    Since the dawn of telescopic astronomy astronomers have observed and measured the "spurious" telescopic disks of stars, generally reporting that brighter stars have larger disks than fainter stars. Early observers such as Galileo Galilei interpreted these disks as being the physical bodies of stars; later observers such as William Herschel understood them to be spurious; some, such as Christian Huygens, argued that stars show no disks at all. In the early 19th century George B. Airy produced a theoretical explanation of star images sufficient to explain all historical observations, but astronomers were slow to fully recognize this. Even today conventional wisdom concerning stars and telescopes stands at odds to both historical observations and Airy's theory. We give a detailed analysis of both historical observations and Airy's theory, illustrating how Airy's theory explains the historical observations, from Galileo to Huygens to Herschel. We argue that the observations themselves appear in all cases to be va...