WorldWideScience

Sample records for century global analysis

  1. Global phytoplankton decline over the past century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Daniel G; Lewis, Marlon R; Worm, Boris

    2010-07-29

    In the oceans, ubiquitous microscopic phototrophs (phytoplankton) account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. Analyses of satellite-derived phytoplankton concentration (available since 1979) have suggested decadal-scale fluctuations linked to climate forcing, but the length of this record is insufficient to resolve longer-term trends. Here we combine available ocean transparency measurements and in situ chlorophyll observations to estimate the time dependence of phytoplankton biomass at local, regional and global scales since 1899. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century; this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation and fisheries. PMID:20671703

  2. One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietschnig, Jakob; Voracek, Martin

    2015-05-01

    The Flynn effect (rising intelligence test performance in the general population over time and generations) varies enigmatically across countries and intelligence domains; its substantive meaning and causes remain elusive. This first formal meta-analysis on the topic revealed worldwide IQ gains across more than one century (1909-2013), based on 271 independent samples, totaling almost 4 million participants, from 31 countries. Key findings include that IQ gains vary according to domain (estimated 0.41, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.21 IQ points annually for fluid, spatial, full-scale, and crystallized IQ test performance, respectively), are stronger for adults than children, and have decreased in more recent decades. Altogether, these findings narrow down proposed theories and candidate factors presumably accounting for the Flynn effect. Factors associated with life history speed seem mainly responsible for the Flynn effect's general trajectory, whereas favorable social multiplier effects and effects related to economic prosperity appear to be responsible for observed differences of the Flynn effect across intelligence domains. PMID:25987509

  3. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  4. Global health in the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Laaser, Ulrich; Brand, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Since the end of the 1990s, globalization has become a common term, facilitated by the social media of today and the growing public awareness of life-threatening problems common to all people, such as global warming, global security and global divides.Review: For the main parameters of health like the burden of disease, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, extreme discrepancies are observed across the world. Infant mortality, malnutrition and high fertility go hand in ha...

  5. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  6. Local/global: women artists in the nineteenth century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Cherry; J. Helland

    2006-01-01

    Local/Global: Women Artists in the Nineteenth Century is the first book to investigate women artists working in disparate parts of the world. This major new book offers a dazzling array of compelling essays on art, architecture and design by leading writers: Joan Kerr on art in Australia by resident

  7. Global Energy Challenges of the 21. Century and Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper considers the world energy demand till the middle of the century, as well as possible forecasting solution for this challenge. On the base of the mathematical model developed in the Kurchatov Institute in 2003- 2006, the vision of the global nuclear energy system and its potential contribution in the energy mix was analyzed. The rate of rapprochement between specific energy consumptions in different countries of the world is a key parameter determining the energy market strain. It was shown that a continuation of the current world trends of this rapprochement would result in an energy resource deficit already in the nearest future. The energy mix picture would contain an 'unsatisfied demand' area of about 10 000 Mtoe of total energy to be consumed by the mid-century Supposing that the mankind has to meet the 'unsatisfied demand' by nuclear energy, the global energy challenges of the 21. century energy do not impose any upper limit on nuclear energy development, the scale of which would be determined by development opportunities. Russia, as one of the pioneers of the First Nuclear Era, possesses great experience of solving the key issues of nuclear energy of the 20. century, and is capable to play an important role in dealing with the challenges faced by nuclear in the 21. century. (authors)

  8. Deviation of Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea level from the global mean during the 20th century: analysis of the main factors involved and a high-end projection to the end of 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarascia, Luca; Lionello, Piero

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of this work is to investigate which are the main factors determining interannual sea level variability of Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, and to which extent the sea level of these three basins can deviate from the global mean. The three basins selected are semi-enclosed marginal seas connected with the adjacent seas by narrow straits. 13 sea level timeseries in Baltic Sea, 7 in Adriatic Sea and 5 in Black Sea provided by PSMSL, allowed us to compute a single seamless sea level timeseries representative for each basin from 1900 and for the entire 20th century, using statistical tools (PCA and Least Square method). Comparison with satellite data in the period 1993-2009, confirms that timeseries so computed are good representations of the observed sea level, with correlation values of 0.97, 0.87 and 0.72 for Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea respectively. At basin scale the sea level has been decomposed in various contributions that have been separately analyzed: local effect of pressure, steric effect due to temperature and salinity variation, boundary forcing, wind effect and river discharge. The annual cycles and their variability, show that the largest contribution is due to the wind for the Adriatic Sea and for the Baltic Sea. In these two basins the inverse Barometer effect plays a minor role and the steric factor is almost negligible. The wind seems to play a negligible role on Black Sea, where the Danube river discharge plays an important role. A linear regression model, built considering large scale sea level pressure distribution as predictor, is capable to explain a further percentage of sea level variability variability (about 20%) left after subtracting all the factors considered above. Sea level of the Baltic and Black Sea show a significant positive correlation (0.3 about) revealing the likely influence of an external common forcing. Past sea level variability shows no strong evidences of large deviation from the global mean sea level

  9. Developing a 21st Century Global Library for Mathematics Research

    OpenAIRE

    Sciences, Committee on Planning a Global Library of the Mathematical

    2014-01-01

    Developing a 21st Century Global Library for Mathematics Research discusses how information about what the mathematical literature contains can be formalized and made easier to express, encode, and explore. Many of the tools necessary to make this information system a reality will require much more than indexing and will instead depend on community input paired with machine learning, where mathematicians' expertise can fill the gaps of automatization. This report proposes the establishment of...

  10. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  11. Global physical water scarcity trajectories for the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Eisner, Stefanie; Flörke, Martina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2014-05-01

    Food security and the overall wellbeing of human kind are threatened by overexploitation of our freshwater resources. Water scarcity is not only a threat to people, but also to many of the planet's key ecosystems. Due to increasing population pressure, changing water consumption behaviour, and climate change, the threat is projected to become even worse in the future. Water can be physically scarce in two ways: population-driven water shortage occurs in areas where a large population has to depend on a limited resources (indicated by m3/capita/yr), while demand-driven water stress is related to the excessive use of otherwise sufficient water resources (indicated by demand/supply ratio). Although many studies have increased our understanding of current water scarcity and how this may increase in the future, the understanding of trajectories with the past development of the water scarcity is less well understood. To date, studies of past water resources have focused on either water shortage or water stress. We aim to calculate global water scarcity, both water stress and water shortage, for the period 1900-2005. We can thus provide, for the first time, continuous regional trends and local analyses of trajectories of water scarcity for the entire 20th century. By including both dimensions of water scarcity, we can increase the understanding of reasons behind the scarcity. We found that in year 1900 13% of the population (i.e. 0.22 billion people) was living in areas that suffer some kind of water scarcity (0.2), while in year 2005 this percentage has increased to 57% (3.80 billion). Especially the population suffering from both high water stress (ratio >0.4) and high water shortage (<1000 m3/capita/yr) has risen considerably, from 2% (29 million people) in 1900, up to 19% (1.2 billion people) in 2005. Geographically these concern mainly northern African regions, the Middle East, Pakistan and parts of India and Northern China. The region of sub-Saharan Africa mainly

  12. Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lawler, Joshua J; Olden, Julian D; Blumenthal, Dana M; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P; Sorte, Cascade J B; Tatem, Andrew J

    2016-01-01

    Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion. PMID:27549569

  13. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  14. Global SST influence on twentieth century NAO variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorologisches Institut, Universitaet Bonn, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Latif, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, 20146 Hamburg (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    Recent studies have suggested that sea surface temperature (SST) is an important source of variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we deal with four basic aspects contributing to this issue: (1) we investigate the characteristic time scales of this oceanic influence; (2) quantify the scale-dependent hindcast potential of the NAO during the twentieth century as derived from SST-driven atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensembles; (3) the relevant oceanic regions are identified, corresponding SST indices are defined and their relationship to the NAO are evaluated by means of cross spectral analysis and (4) our results are compared with long-term coupled control experiments with different ocean models in order to ensure whether the spectral relationship between the SST regions and the NAO is an intrinsic mode of the coupled climate system, involving the deep ocean circulation, rather than an artefact of the unilateral SST forcing. The observed year-to-year NAO fluctuations are barely influenced by the SST. On the decadal time scales the major swings of the observed NAO are well reproduced by various ensembles from the middle of the twentieth century onward, including the negative state in the 1960s and part of the positive trend afterwards. A six-member ECHAM4-T42 ensemble reveals that the SST boundary condition affects 25% of total decadal-mean and interdecadal-trend NAO variability throughout the twentieth century. The most coherent NAO-related SST feature is the well-known North Atlantic tripole. Additional contributions may arise from the southern Pacific and the low-latitude Indian Ocean. The coupled climate model control runs suggest only the North Atlantic SST-NAO relationship as being a true characteristic of the coupled climate system. The coherence and phase spectra of observations and coupled simulations are in excellent agreement, confirming the robustness of this decadal-scale North Atlantic air-sea coupled mode. (orig.)

  15. Quantifying the role of Northern Eurasia in global CO2, CH4, and water dynamics during the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Kicklighter, David; Cai, Yongxia; Tchebakova, Nadja; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John; Sokolov, Andrei; Sirin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover and biogeochemical cycles in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops due to increasing population and associated economic development, the climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia also significantly affect global land use and result in a global cumulative carbon sink of about 63 Pg C under the policy scenario that limits CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century. In comparison with the policy scenario, under a no-policy scenario where CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century, the global cumulative carbon sink is 11 Pg C less mainly due to carbon lost from global grasslands. Cumulative evapotranspiration from global terrestrial ecosystems considering global land-use changes with vegetation shifts in northern Eurasia is 8.05 and 8.35 million km3 for the policy and no-policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on CH4 emissions from northern Eurasia in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this

  16. Global imbalances in the XIX, XX and the XXI centuries.

    OpenAIRE

    Eugeni, S.

    2016-01-01

    We establish a new stylized fact: while the current account and the trade balances are positively correlated during the second globalization (1990s–2010s), they were negatively correlated during the first globalization (1870s–1910s). We show that the reason behind is that the world interest rate is currently low relatively to the world growth rate due to a “global saving glut”, while this was not the case during the first globalization.

  17. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

    OpenAIRE

    Inaya eHajj Hussein; Nour eChams; Sana eChams; Skye eEl Sayegh; Reina eBadran; Mohamad eRaad; Alice eGerges-Geagea; Angelo eLeone; Abdo eJurjus

    2015-01-01

    Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response.The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the 18th century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Je...

  18. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

    OpenAIRE

    Hajj Hussein, Inaya; Chams, Nour; Chams, Sana; El Sayegh, Skye; Badran, Reina; Raad, Mohamad; Gerges-Geagea, Alice; Leone, Angelo; Jurjus, Abdo

    2015-01-01

    Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live-attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response. The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the eighteenth century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Ed...

  19. Impacts of external forcing on the 20th century global warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impacts of external forcing, including natural and anthropogenic, on the 20th century global warming were assessed with the use of the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG Version 1.1.0, following the standard coordinated experiment design of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) International Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C), Phase II. The results indicate that external forcing plays an important role in the evolution of the land surface air temperature on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales, and contributes greatly to the global warming in the following two periods: the early twentieth century between the 1910s and the 1940s and the late twentieth century after the 1970s. External forcing also has strong impact on the regional temperature change during the two warming periods except for parts of the Eurasia and the North America continents. In the cooling period, however, the impact of internal variability is dominant.

  20. Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

    1994-01-01

    Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

  1. Modeling global water use for the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, Van M.T.H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and w

  2. Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jackelyn

    2016-02-01

    Few studies have considered the role of immigration in the rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying neighborhoods were "global" in the 1970s or became so over time. An early presence of Asians was positively associated with gentrification; and an early presence of Hispanics was positively associated with gentrification in neighborhoods with substantial shares of blacks and negatively associated with gentrification in cities with high Hispanic growth, where ethnic enclaves were more likely to form. Low-income, predominantly black neighborhoods and neighborhoods that became Asian and Hispanic destinations remained ungentrified despite the growth of gentrification during the late twentieth century. The findings suggest that the rise of immigration after 1965 brought pioneers to many low-income central-city neighborhoods, spurring gentrification in some neighborhoods and forming ethnic enclaves in others. PMID:26689938

  3. The Global Contradiction of the 21rst Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Erik LANE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As global temperatures keep increasing and the amount of Co2 equivalent stuff in the atmosphere is at record level, the key links between GDP growth, energy consumption expansion and greenhouse gases emission increases must be more researched, although economic growth and ecological capital has been much debated: Can they today be combined to give both prosperity and environmental sustainability?  On the micro level, many projects show that this is indeed possible. But on the macro level, global emissions of greenhouse gases follow the advancement of country affluence closely. The link is the constantly increasing need for more energy, provided by fossil fuels. The G20 policies are probably forthcoming too late to avoid disasters.

  4. Modeling global water use for the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, van, A.J.H.; Yillia, P.; C. Ringler; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustaina...

  5. The Global Contradiction of the 21rst Century

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Erik LANE

    2014-01-01

    As global temperatures keep increasing and the amount of Co2 equivalent stuff in the atmosphere is at record level, the key links between GDP growth, energy consumption expansion and greenhouse gases emission increases must be more researched, although economic growth and ecological capital has been much debated: Can they today be combined to give both prosperity and environmental sustainability?  On the micro level, many projects show that this is indeed possible. But on the macro level, glo...

  6. 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qiuhong; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2012-03-01

    River runoff is a key index of renewable water resources which affect almost all human and natural systems. Any substantial change in runoff will therefore have serious social, environmental, and ecological consequences. We estimate the runoff response to global mean temperature change implied by the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). In contrast to previous studies, we estimate the runoff sensitivity using global mean temperature change as an index of anthropogenic climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with the rationale that this removes the dependence on emissions scenarios. Our results show that the runoff sensitivity implied by the IPCC experiments is relatively stable across emissions scenarios and global mean temperature increments, but varies substantially across models with the exception of the high-latitudes and currently arid or semi-arid areas. The runoff sensitivities are slightly higher at 0.5°C warming than for larger amounts of warming. The estimated ratio of runoff change to (local) precipitation change (runoff elasticity) ranges from about one to three, and the runoff temperature sensitivity (change in runoff per degree C of local temperature increase) ranges from decreases of about 2 to 6% over most basins in North America and the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.

  7. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  8. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajj Hussein, Inaya; Chams, Nour; Chams, Sana; El Sayegh, Skye; Badran, Reina; Raad, Mohamad; Gerges-Geagea, Alice; Leone, Angelo; Jurjus, Abdo

    2015-01-01

    Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live-attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response. The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the eighteenth century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Jenner, the father of vaccination and immunology, published his work on smallpox. The nineteenth century was a major landmark, with the "Germ Theory of disease" of Louis Pasteur, the discovery of the germ tubercle bacillus for tuberculosis by Robert Koch, and the isolation of pneumococcus organism by George Miller Sternberg. Another landmark was the discovery of diphtheria toxin by Emile Roux and its serological treatment by Emil Von Behring and Paul Ehrlih. In addition, Pasteur was able to generate the first live-attenuated viral vaccine against rabies. Typhoid vaccines were then developed, followed by the plague vaccine of Yersin. At the beginning of World War I, the tetanus toxoid was introduced, followed in 1915 by the pertussis vaccine. In 1974, The Expanded Program of Immunization was established within the WHO for bacille Calmette-Guerin, Polio, DTP, measles, yellow fever, and hepatitis B. The year 1996 witnessed the launching of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. In 1988, the WHO passed a resolution to eradicate polio by the year 2000 and in 2006; the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer was developed. In 2010, "The Decade of vaccines" was launched, and on April 1st 2012, the United Nations launched the "shot@Life" campaign. In brief, the armamentarium of vaccines continues to grow with more emphasis on safety, availability, and accessibility. This mini review highlights the major historical events and pioneers in the course of development of vaccines

  9. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inaya eHajj Hussein

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response.The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the 18th century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Jenner, the father of vaccination and immunology, published his work on small pox.The 19th century was a major landmark, with the Germ Theory of disease of Louis Pasteur, the discovery of the germ tubercle bacillus for tuberculosis by Robert Koch, and the isolation of pneumococcus organism by George Miller Sternberg. Another landmark was the discovery of diphtheria toxin by Emile Roux and its serological treatment by Emil Von Behring and Paul Ehrlih. In addition, Pasteur was able to generate the first live attenuated viral vaccine against rabies. Typhoid vaccines were then developed, followed by the plague vaccine of Yersin. At the beginning of World War I, the tetanus toxoid was introduced, followed in 1915 by the pertussis vaccine. In 1974, The Expanded Program of Immunization was established within the WHO for BCG, Polio, DTP, measles, yellow fever and hepatitis B. The year 1996 witnessed the launching of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. In 1988, the WHO passed a resolution to eradicate polio by the year 2000 and in 2006; the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer was developed. In 2010 The Decade of vaccines was launched, and on April 1st 2012, the United Nations launched the shot@Life campaign. In brief, the armamentarium of vaccines continues to grow with more emphasis on safety, availability and accessibility. This mini review highlights the major historical events and pioneers in the course of development of vaccines, which have eradicated

  10. Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Albert

    2012-01-01

    Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

  11. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  12. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H)

    OpenAIRE

    D. Wisser; Fekete, B.M.; C. J. Vörösmarty; A. H. Schumann

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities) and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation...

  13. Food security in the 21st century: Global yield projections and agricultural expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, K. F.; Rulli, M.; D'Odorico, P.

    2013-12-01

    Global demands on agricultural lands are ever increasing as a result of population growth, changes in diet and increasing biofuel use. By mid-century, the demands for food and fiber are expected to roughly double with the population reaching 9.5 billion. However, earth's finite resource base places a ceiling on the amount of agricultural production that is possible. Several strategies have been widely discussed to meet these rapid increases and to extend the ceiling yet higher, including reducing waste, modifying diets, improving yield and productivity and expanding agriculture and aquaculture. One of the most promising of these is closing the yield gap of currently under-performing agricultural land that has the potential to be much more productive. With high inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers), this strategy has real potential to increase food security, particularly in the developing world where population is expected to sharply increase and where a high potential for yield gap closure exists. Thus it is important to consider whether improvements in global yield can adequately meet global dietary demand during the 21st century. Constructing yield projections to the end of the century, we examine whether global crop production for 154 countries and 16 major food crops under selected agricultural and dietary scenarios can keep pace with estimates of population growth to 2100. By calculating the global production of calories, we are then able to examine how many people can be supported under future scenarios and how closing yield gaps can increase this potential. Our findings agree with previous studies that closing the yield gap alone cannot provide sufficient production by mid-century and that a heavy global dependence on trade will persist throughout the century. Using high-resolution global land suitability maps under a suite of climate models, we find that scenarios incorporating a combination of yield gap closure and agricultural expansion provide the most

  14. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  15. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day−1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day−1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  16. New legal Concepts in the XXIst Century Global Society: from “Global Good Governance” to “Global Eco-diplomacy”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mădălina Virginia ANTONESCU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, we’ll try to analyze briefly some of the concepts commonly used in the domain of international relations, connected to the field of human rights and we’ll attempt to show their connection to other areas as human security, human development and sustainable development. After briefly analyzing the content of concepts such as global governance, good governance, we’ll reveal their relation to the concept of environmental security, due to the reality that, for the XXIst century global world, the protection and preservation of the Earth environment will represent one of the fundamental obligations of the political actors. This ethical (the ethical element representing, within the global society of XXIst century, one of the most important instruments of the global post-capitalist policy and legal obligation (consolidating an authentic global environmental law, significantly enriched from the sanction-implementation viewpoint, as compared to the current set of international environmental regulations law, deeply enriched at compulsory level, in comparison with the present legal body of environmental law will be implemented not only regarding state actors but also, non-state actors which cannot be neglected anymore in the XXIst century global society. We’ll also analyze other juridical concepts as eco-development, sustainable development, with some short observations regarding a global environmental law. The third section will present some considerations over the perspective of introducing “the rights of the nature”, within the XXIst century international law, where environment would be a distinct subject of international law, nearby states and international organizations, enjoying a special range of distinct rights. The fourth section focuses on the perspectives of eco-diplomacy and its legal nature (an inclusive type of diplomacy, based on the harmonious relation between the human being and nature or, on a contrary

  17. Brief Communication: Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent

    OpenAIRE

    B. Marzeion; Leclercq, P.W.; Cogley, J. G.; A. H. Jarosch

    2015-01-01

    Recent estimates of the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise during the 20th century are strongly divergent. Advances in data availability have allowed revisions of some of these published estimates. Here we show that outside of Antarctica, the global estimates of glacier mass change obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other, and also with an estimate for the yea...

  18. Globalization, digital economy and e-commerce in the twenty-first century

    OpenAIRE

    Sorin George Toma; Andreea Saseanu

    2007-01-01

    The triumph of globalization brought the emergence of a new economy. ,,The new economy” is based on the information and telecommunication technology and Internet. It is a digital economy that recognizes the fundamental role of information. That is why firms seek to change their business models in order to face the tough competition. Therefore the traditional value chain has changed. E-commerce has become a key driver of business success in the twenty first century.

  19. Changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, Arthur; van Beek, Rens; Bouwman, Lex; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    Dramatic world-wide changes occurred during the 20th century in both nutrient delivery and in-stream retention. In this paper, we use a combined nutrient-input, hydrology, in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Global nutrient delivery almost doubled due to expanding agriculture and increasing wastewater discharge. Nutrient retention also increased by a factor of two as a result of the rapidly growing number of dams and reservoirs. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers. River export to coastal seas increased during the 20th century from 19 to 37 Tg yr-1 of N and 2 to 4 Tg yr-1 of P. There are important differences in riverine N:P export ratios in various parts of the world resulting from the interplay of multiple processes and economic activities in different river basins. Increasing nutrient loading of freshwater systems is a threat to water quality. Furthermore, the global river export increase in the molar N:P ratio during recent decades may affect the ecology within both the river basins and the coastal system. This ratio change may be driven by the recent stagnation of P fertilizer use in most industrialized countries, in comparison to the ever increasing N fertilizer use.

  20. Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy experts project that global oil supplies will only meet demand until global oil production has peaked sometime between 2013 and 2020. Declining oil production after peak production will cause a global energy gap to develop, which will have to be bridged by unconventional and renewable energy sources. Nuclear, solar and hydrogen are destined to become major energy sources during the 21st century, but only if their enabling technologies improve significantly to ensure affordability and convenience of use. This paper will argue that global oil production will probably peak between 2004 and 2005, causing a serious energy gap to develop sometime between 2008 and 2010 rather than 2013-2020 as the energy experts projected. It will also argue that a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is inevitable. The paper will conclude, however, that fossil fuels with a growing contribution from nuclear energy, will still be supplying the major part of the global energy needs for most, perhaps all, of the 21st century. (author)

  1. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

  2. XBT effects on the global ocean observation system in the early 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, You-Soon; Zhang, Shaoqing

    2016-04-01

    During the early 21st century, we have experienced a transition period of global ocean observing system from expendable bathythermograph (XBT) to Argo. There has been decreasing of XBT observations, but significant increasing of Argo profiles in the global ocean. However, evaluation of the XBT observation system during this period has little been presented. Here, this study investigates the XBT effects on the global ocean observing system by using GFDL data assimilation model. After Argo period, the amount of heat content correction by XBT assimilation is significantly weaken especially in the upper ocean, but it remains in the deeper oceans below 700 m depth within a dynamic model system. This study also confirms that although XBT only provides temperature observations mostly in the upper 700 m of the northern hemisphere, it can affects both temperature and salinity fields of data assimilation system especially in the deep and southern oceans.

  3. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  4. The advent of battery-based societies and the global environment in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoda, Susumu; Ishihara, Kaoru

    In paving the way for a new electricity-based civilization in the 21st century, we hope to find the key to solving the trilemma of securing energy and resources, maintaining economic growth, and preserving the environment. In these circumstances, secondary batteries are expected to be used on a large scale in a new field—for energy purposes and to positively affect preservation of the global environment, resulting in the advent of a new battery-based society in the 21st century. It is important to develop secondary batteries not only with high specific energy for convenience, but also with large capacity, high energy efficiency and long life cycle for effective use of primary energy resources including natural energy. Lithium secondary batteries are a promising option.

  5. Globalization and Glassy Ideality of the Web of Twentieth Century Science

    CERN Document Server

    Phillips, J C

    2010-01-01

    Scientific communication is an essential part of modern science: whereas Archimedes worked alone, Newton (correspondence with Hooke, 1676) acknowledged that "If I have seen a little further, it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants." How is scientific communication reflected in the patterns of citations in scientific papers? How have these patterns changed in the 20th century, as both means of communication and individual transportation changed rapidly, compared to the earlier post-Newton 18th and 19th centuries? Here we discuss a glass model for scientific communications, based on a unique 2009 scientometric study of 25 million papers and 600 million citations that encapsulates the epistemology of modern science. The glass model predicts and explains, using no adjustable parameters, a surprisingly universal internal structure in the development of scientific research, which is essentially constant across the natural sciences, but which because of globalization changed qualitatively around 1960. Globaliza...

  6. Computational methods for global/local analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Jonathan B.; Mccleary, Susan L.; Aminpour, Mohammad A.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Computational methods for global/local analysis of structures which include both uncoupled and coupled methods are described. In addition, global/local analysis methodology for automatic refinement of incompatible global and local finite element models is developed. Representative structural analysis problems are presented to demonstrate the global/local analysis methods.

  7. Determination and characterization of 20th century global sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chung-Yen

    In this study, we provide a determination of the 20th Century (1900--2002) global sea level rise, the associated error budgets, and the quantifications of the various geophysical sources of the observed sea level rise, using data and geophysical models. We analyzed significant geographical variations of the global sea level including those caused by the steric component (heat and salinity) in the ocean, and the self-gravitational signal as a result of ice sheets melting, including the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) since the Pleistocene. In particular, relative sea level data from long-term (longest is 150 year records) and over 600 tide gauge sites globally from PSMSL and other sources, and geocentric sea level data from multiple satellite altimetry (1985--2005) have been used to determine and characterize 20th century global sea level rise. Altimeter and selected tide gauge sea level data have been used for the 20th century sea level determination, accounting for relative biases between the altimeters, effects of sea level corresponding to oceanic thermal expansion, vertical motions affecting tide gauge measurements, self gravitations, and barotropic ocean response. This study is also characterized by the roles of the polar ocean in the global sea level study and addressing the question whether there is a detectable sea level rise acceleration during the last decade. Vertical motions have been estimated by combining geocentric sea level measurements from satellite altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON) and long-term relative (crust-fixed) sea level records from global tide gauges using the Gauss-Markov (GM) model with stochastic constraints. The study provided a demonstration of improved vertical motion solutions in semi-enclosed seas and lakes, including Fennoscandia and the Great Lakes region, showing excellent agreement with independent GPS observed radial velocities, or with predictions from GIA models. In general, the estimated uncertainty of the observed

  8. Vision of energy supply in the 21st century: managing the global bonfire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humans have lit a vast carbon-based bonfire that has fueled the world's economic and industrial development for the last 200 years. In that time, the impact of emissions into the atmosphere has become measurable, and has triggered debates on global warming and climate change as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gases. Growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use all the energy sources available to us in the 21st Century, to successfully manage and preserve the environment. Consistent with the need for continued human and economic growth and reduced emissions, we must use non-carbon sources for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels. Nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extending energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide an economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation. To illustrate these impacts we adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. We estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon based energy sources on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the 21st Century. To stabilize CO2 concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing about 30-40% of all the noncarbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century, and still keep the people of the world and their economic future moving and growing. The key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants becomes clear, whether or not the current worldwide value (∼7-10%) or a growing share of the energy market is assumed. We note that in the future, nuclear

  9. Strategic Intelligence in a globalized world in Latin America: Challenges in the XXI century

    OpenAIRE

    Boris Saavedra

    2016-01-01

    In general, intelligence has been classified as something mysterious due to the historical experiences in Latin America and the general ignorance about the true essence of intelligence as a primary activity of the State. This paper focuses on the analysis of the role of strategic intelligence as a fundamental element of public security and defense policy of a nation in Latin America. The changes occurring at the dawn of this century for the collection and analysis of intelligence are critical...

  10. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five GCMs and four emission scenarios (RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime, has a substantial influence on future hydrological drought characteristics.

  11. The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakmar, Susan

    2010-09-15

    As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

  12. Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP/LASG GOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马晓燕; 郭裕福; 石广玉; 俞永强

    2004-01-01

    The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations,including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11°C over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.

  13. The global energy context: Chances and challenges for the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2 billion people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency also in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

  14. The global energy context -- chances and challenges for the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2000 million people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

  15. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC

  16. Global Curricular Legacies and Challenges for The Twenty-First Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Brock

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to examine the evolution of what has become a near global and conventional school curriculum, the forces behind its development and the purposes of education, its sponsors and controllers espouse, and to set it against the massive and urgent challenges of the 21st century. This century looks to be a unique one in that it could be the tipping point between human and environmental survival, and disaster on a massive scale. The argument is that this near global view of the purpose of education is misconceived and dangerous unless there is rapid and fundamental change in the purposes of educating the young. Those older than 10 are mostly already 'lost'. In search of a more appropriate purpose and structure of curriculum, the work of a prominent few who are not yet 'lost' is drawn upon, especially that of George Martin. founder of the Oxford Martin School. The purpose of education must now, and urgently, be the survival of the human species and the planet, not only in basic terms but also in terms of controlling increasingly powerful and sophisticated computer technologies known as the Singularity that could spiral out of control.

  17. Avoiding HFC growth is critical for keeping global warming below 2 °C during the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ramanathan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by end of the century, therefore significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  18. The African contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle feedback of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Cadule, P.; Piao, S. L.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.

    2008-12-01

    Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES-A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4-LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 20% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. However, the African rainforest ecosystem alone makes only a negligible contribution to the overall feedback, much smaller than the one arising from the Amazon forest. This is first because of the two times smaller area of forest in Africa, but also because of the relatively lower local land carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. This beneficial role of African forests in mitigating future climate change should be taken into account when designing forest conservation policy.

  19. Trends in 20th Century Global Rainfall Interception as Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Implications for Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Steve; Prentice, Colin

    2010-05-01

    In order to monitor and forecast regions of potential freshwater stress and surplus, a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the global hydrological cycle and its components is needed. Such work should lead to better constrained estimates of freshwater fluxes and facilitate the identification of regions requiring enhanced water management. The research described here aims to quantify the contribution of climate- and CO2-induced changes in the physical properties of the land surface, mediated by biological processes. Global climate change is expected to bring about substantial latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in vegetation cover. Shifts in species distribution, the potential of increased leaf area index (LAI) but also reduced stomatal conductance in response to rising concentrations of CO2, and variability in precipitation, can all influence rates and spatial variability of the interception-throughfall balance. These effects will have implications for runoff generation and the partitioning between 'green' and 'white' water fluxes. The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM, a development of the LPJ model) was evaluated in terms of its interception component and used to simulate trends in global relative throughfall from 1901-2006, as this is directly relevant for runoff. We estimate that mean global annual runoff was reduced by 164 ±18 km3/year during the twentieth century as a result of biophysical changes controlling relative throughfall generation. Widespread decreases in relative throughfall of typically between 0 and -1% are evident between 1901-1953 and 1954-2006. Changes of up to

  20. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  1. Brief Communication: Global glacier mass loss reconstructions during the 20th century are consistent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Marzeion

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise during the 20th century that were published in recent years are strongly divergent. Advances in data availability have allowed revisions of some of these published estimates. Here we show that outside of Antarctica, the global estimates of glacier mass loss obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other, and also with an estimate for the years 2003–2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist in estimates on regional scales.

  2. Brief Communication: Global glacier mass loss reconstructions during the 20th century are consistent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Leclercq, P. W.; Cogley, J. G.; Jarosch, A. H.

    2015-07-01

    Estimates of the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise during the 20th century that were published in recent years are strongly divergent. Advances in data availability have allowed revisions of some of these published estimates. Here we show that outside of Antarctica, the global estimates of glacier mass loss obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other, and also with an estimate for the years 2003-2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist in estimates on regional scales.

  3. Brief Communication: Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, B.; Leclercq, P. W.; Cogley, J. G.; Jarosch, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recent estimates of the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise during the 20th century are strongly divergent. Advances in data availability have allowed revisions of some of these published estimates. Here we show that outside of Antarctica, the global estimates of glacier mass change obtained from glacier-length-based reconstructions and from a glacier model driven by gridded climate observations are now consistent with each other, and also with an estimate for the years 2003-2009 that is mostly based on remotely sensed data. This consistency is found throughout the entire common periods of the respective data sets. Inconsistencies of reconstructions and observations persist in estimates on regional scales.

  4. Simulating the 20th Century Arctic Climate Using A Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Watanabe, E.; Jin, M.; Hasumi, H.

    2006-12-01

    The simulations of the Arctic ice-ocean circulation using the high resolution global coupled atmosphere-ice- ocean model with 1/6x1/4 degrees and 48 vertical layers on the `Earth Simulator' supercomputer was evaluated to determine the model performance, physics soundness, and its sensitivity to different process parameterizations. The model was parameterized by GM (Gent and McWilliams 1990) parameterization to the north of 45N. The statistical time series of the total oceanic and ice kinetic energy and ice areas suggest that there is an equilibrium without any T/S restoring or flux adjustment, and no model drifting is found. The model climatology (mean over all the model years) and variability were examined and compared with the available observations, such as ice area, temperature and salinity at certain key depths and transects. Several important physical features in the Northern Hemisphere, such as the thermohaline in the Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Water, meridional thermohaline overturning, transports from Bering Strait, Fram Strait etc., were examined to determine physical soundness of the model. An important achievement is that the Atlantic Layer in the Arctic can be reasonably reproduced with no restoring temperature and salinity to observations. An important criterion of reproducing the Atlantic Layer variability is measured by the core (max) temperature of the layer of 500-1500m. The model produces reasonably the 20th century Atlantic Water core temperature that compares well with observation by Polyakov et al. (2004). The model catches the 1930s-40s warming and the 1990s warming, similar to the observation. These results indicate that this coupled global model captures most important dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the winter Dipole Anomaly (DA) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the Arctic atmosphere and their contribution to sea ice export are investigated using the 20th century simulation.

  5. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  6. "What Price Respect"--Exploring the Notion of Respect in a 21st Century Global Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Doirean

    2010-01-01

    This paper evaluates the meaning of respect in a 21st century global learning environment, with a view to exploring the implications for promoting harmonious working relationships among students of culturally diverse ethnic backgrounds in the classroom. Research conducted since 2005 that investigates the understanding, meaning and experience of…

  7. Global Uranium And Thorium Resources: Are They Adequate To Satisfy Demand Over The Next Half Century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, I. B.

    2012-04-01

    This presentation will consider the adequacy of global uranium and thorium resources to meet realistic nuclear power demand scenarios over the next half century. It is presented on behalf of, and based on evaluations by, the Uranium Group - a joint initiative of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, of which the author is a Vice Chair. The Uranium Group produces a biennial report on Uranium Resources, Production and Demand based on information from some 40 countries involved in the nuclear fuel cycle, which also briefly reviews thorium resources. Uranium: In 2008, world production of uranium amounted to almost 44,000 tonnes (tU). This supplied approximately three-quarters of world reactor requirements (approx. 59,000 tU), the remainder being met by previously mined uranium (so-called secondary sources). Information on availability of secondary sources - which include uranium from excess inventories, dismantling nuclear warheads, tails and spent fuel reprocessing - is incomplete, but such sources are expected to decrease in market importance after 2013. In 2008, the total world Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources of uranium (recoverable at less than 130/kgU) amounted to 5.4 million tonnes. In addition, it is clear that there are vast amounts of uranium recoverable at higher costs in known deposits, plus many as yet undiscovered deposits. The Uranium Group has concluded that the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet projected high-case requirements for nuclear power for at least half a century. This conclusion does not assume increasing replacement of uranium by fuels from reprocessing current reactor wastes, or by thorium, nor greater reactor efficiencies, which are likely to ameliorate future uranium demand. However, progressively increasing quantities of uranium will need to be mined, against a backdrop of the relatively small number of producing facilities around the world, geopolitical uncertainties and

  8. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET: ANALYSIS AND PERSPECTIVES

    OpenAIRE

    COLESNICOVA Tatiana

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the situation on the global financial market is analyzed in the paper. The actuality of this research proceeded from the reality facing the entire global financial system. The purpose of this work is to research the situation on the global financial market based on the complex analysis of the sector. In the process of developing of this work were used the following methods: comparative analysis, synthesis, logical analysis. The results from the well-known companies which pro...

  9. Ozone recovery may enhance global warming in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Y.; Hu, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Observations show a stabilization or weak increasing of the stratospheric ozone layer since the late 1990s. Recent coupled chemistry-climate model simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the middle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of the ozone layer may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model ensemble results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an enhancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with global mean magnitudes of about 0.41 K for A1B scenario and about 0.2 K for A2 and B1 scenarios over the period of 2001-2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the extratratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Enhanced warming is also found at the surface. The strongest enhancement of surface warming is located in the Arctic in boreal winter. The global annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K, 0.08 K and 0.13 K for A1B, A2, and B1 over 2001-2050, respectively.

  10. 21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

  11. Reconciling past changes in Earth's rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk's enigma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Dumberry, Mathieu; Stanley, Sabine

    2015-12-01

    In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth's rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth's rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth's rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth's rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them. PMID:26824058

  12. Strategic Intelligence in a globalized world in Latin America: Challenges in the XXI century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Saavedra

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In general, intelligence has been classified as something mysterious due to the historical experiences in Latin America and the general ignorance about the true essence of intelligence as a primary activity of the State. This paper focuses on the analysis of the role of strategic intelligence as a fundamental element of public security and defense policy of a nation in Latin America. The changes occurring at the dawn of this century for the collection and analysis of intelligence are critical. The analysis of power, internet, digital technology, robotics and intelligent computers is responsible for the rapid changes of our history. Strategic Intelligence requires a comprehensive operational reform in five points: 1 Distinction as far as competition of intelligence agencies is concerned. 2 The dependence of the intelligence agencies. 3 Limiting the allocation of responsibility for domestic intelligence. 4 Establishing a coordinating body at the highest level of the State and 5 Effective external controls. These aspects are essential for a strategic intelligence system in line with present and future demands.

  13. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  14. Will coal depart or will it continue to dominate global power production during the 21st century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Zwaan, B. [ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Policy Studies Dept.

    2005-07-01

    This article considers whether coal must depart or whether it may still dominate power production during the 21st century, in view of the challenges implied by regional pollution reduction and global warming mitigation. Four main reasons are given for why, paradoxically, coal is likely to continue to have a high, and perhaps even increasing, share in global electricity generation this century: namely, (1) its large resource base; (2) the improving efficiency and competitivity of conventional and innovative coal technologies; (3) the employability of new coal technologies in conjunction with carbon capture and storage systems; (4) the improving economics of these advanced clean coal technologies. Governments, however, will need to provide the incentives required to stimulate the deployment of clean coal technologies.

  15. Will coal depart or will it continue to dominate global power production during the 21st century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwaan, Bob van der

    2005-07-01

    This article considers whether coal must depart or whether it may still dominate power production during the 21st century, in view of the challenges implied by regional pollution reduction and global warming mitigation. Four main reasons are given for why, paradoxically, coal is likely to continue to have a high, and perhaps even increasing, share in global electricity generation this century: namely, (1) its large resource base; (2) the improving efficiency and competitivity of conventional and innovative coal technologies; (3) the employability of new coal technologies in conjunction with carbon capture and storage systems; (4) the improving economics of these advanced clean coal technologies. Governments, however, will need to provide the incentives required to stimulate the deployment of clean coal technologies. (Author)

  16. Century-scale patterns and trends of global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on terrestrial carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jia; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Ren, Wei; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Wang, Yuhang; Liu, Yongqiang

    2015-09-01

    Fires have consumed a large amount of terrestrial organic carbon and significantly influenced terrestrial ecosystems and the physical climate system over the past century. Although biomass burning has been widely investigated at a global level in recent decades via satellite observations, less work has been conducted to examine the century-scale changes in global fire regimes and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon balance. In this study, we investigated global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon fluxes from 1901 to 2010 by using a process-based land ecosystem model. Our results show a significant declining trend in global pyrogenic carbon emissions between the early 20th century and the mid-1980s but a significant upward trend between the mid-1980s and the 2000s as a result of more frequent fires in ecosystems with high carbon storage, such as peatlands and tropical forests. Over the past 110 years, average pyrogenic carbon emissions were estimated to be 2.43 Pg C yr-1 (1 Pg = 1015 g), and global average combustion rate (defined as carbon emissions per unit area burned) was 537.85 g C m-2 burned area. Due to the impacts of fires, the net primary productivity and carbon sink of global terrestrial ecosystems were reduced by 4.14 Pg C yr-1 and 0.57 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Our study suggests that special attention should be paid to fire activities in the peatlands and tropical forests in the future. Practical management strategies, such as minimizing forest logging and reducing the rate of cropland expansion in the humid regions, are in need to reduce fire risk and mitigate fire-induced greenhouse gases emissions.

  17. From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

    OpenAIRE

    Derek Byerlee; Ximena Rueda

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutio...

  18. Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the twentieth century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, A. H. W.; Bouwman, A. F.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Mogollón, J. M.; Middelburg, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    Various human activities, including agriculture, water consumption, river damming, and aquaculture, have intensified over the last century. This has had a major impact on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling in global continental waters. In this study, we use a coupled nutrient-input, hydrology, in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Our results suggest that, during this period, the global nutrient delivery to streams increased from 34 to 64 Tg N yr-1 and from 5 to 9 Tg N yr-1. Furthermore, in-stream retention and removal grew from 14 to 27 Tg N yr-1 and 3 to 5 Tg N yr-1. One of the major cause of increased retention is the growing number of reservoirs which now account for 24 and 22 % of global N and P retention/removal in freshwater systems, respectively. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers with the consequence that river nutrient transport to the ocean increased from 19 to 37 Tg N yr-1 and from 2 to 4 Tg N yr-1. Human activities have also led to a global increase in the molar N : P ratio in freshwater bodies.

  19. Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the twentieth century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. W. Beusen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Various human activities, including agriculture, water consumption, river damming, and aquaculture, have intensified over the last century. This has had a major impact on nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P cycling in global continental waters. In this study, we use a coupled nutrient-input, hydrology, in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Our results suggest that, during this period, the global nutrient delivery to streams increased from 34 to 64 Tg N yr−1 and from 5 to 9 Tg N yr−1. Furthermore, in-stream retention and removal grew from 14 to 27 Tg N yr−1 and 3 to 5 Tg N yr−1. One of the major cause of increased retention is the growing number of reservoirs which now account for 24 and 22 % of global N and P retention/removal in freshwater systems, respectively. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers with the consequence that river nutrient transport to the ocean increased from 19 to 37 Tg N yr−1 and from 2 to 4 Tg N yr−1. Human activities have also led to a global increase in the molar N : P ratio in freshwater bodies.

  20. Can Earth System Models Explain the observed 20th Century Global Carbon Sink?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stouffer, R. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Krasting, J. P.; Pacala, S.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

    2012-12-01

    Various authors have estimated the net global land carbon flux as a residual from the global budget of atmospheric, oceanic and fossil fuel carbon fluxes. Recently, Tans (2009) used this method to estimate the globally averaged net land carbon inventory changes method from 1850 to near present day. Using ocean model estimates of the oceanic carbon fluxes, he showed the land being a net source of carbon until around 1940, but after that becoming a net sink, with an uncertainty dominated by the net oceanic carbon flux trajectory (~15%; Sabine et al 2004). Recently Ballantyne et al (2012) produced updated estimates of the net carbon fluxes changes from 1960 until present day. They show that the net carbon flux uptake, land plus ocean, increases from around 2 PgC/yr in 1960 to about 5 PgC/yr in 2010. We compare these observationally based estimates with results from the GFDL Earth System Models (ESMs). We show that both GFDL ESMs store too much carbon in the atmosphere, about a 10 to 20 ppm error by 2005. The models have slightly higher mean values than the Tans (2009) oceanic carbon storage changes but fall within the Sabine et al. (2004) uncertainty estimate. While the general shape of the net land carbon changes in Tans (2009) is well simulated by the ESMs, the ESM sign change in land flux occurs about 15-25years later. By 2010, the models simulate the oceanic carbon uptake as ~2.7 PgC/yr, and the land uptake as ~1 PgC/yr for a total of ~4PgC/yr. The land uptake value varies with ensemble member giving evidence for the role of variability in understanding the past carbon changes. This analysis gives us confidence in the models estimates of the climate-carbon feedbacks. The model results will then be analyzed to determine the various causes of those changes.

  1. Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X. L.; Ren, L. L.; Tong, R.; Liu, Y.; Cheng, X. R.; Jiang, S. H.; Yuan, F.

    2015-06-01

    Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

  2. A generalized preimage theorem in global analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The concept of locally fine point and generalized regular valueof a C1 map between Banach spaces were carried over C1 map between Banach manifolds. Hence the preimage theorem, a principle constructing Banach manifolds in global analysis, is generalized.

  3. Toward the globalization of behavior analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Malott, Maria E.

    2004-01-01

    Globalization could facilitate the long-term growth of behavior analysis, and although progress has been made, much yet needs to be done. Given the scarcity of resources, it is suggested that we draw from successes in the development of behavior analysis and establish behavioral programs around the world that embrace research, education, and practice as a focus of systematic globalization efforts. The strategy would require the implementation of cultural contingencies that support initiation ...

  4. Global Analysis of Minimal Surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Dierkes, Ulrich; Tromba, Anthony J

    2010-01-01

    Many properties of minimal surfaces are of a global nature, and this is already true for the results treated in the first two volumes of the treatise. Part I of the present book can be viewed as an extension of these results. For instance, the first two chapters deal with existence, regularity and uniqueness theorems for minimal surfaces with partially free boundaries. Here one of the main features is the possibility of 'edge-crawling' along free parts of the boundary. The third chapter deals with a priori estimates for minimal surfaces in higher dimensions and for minimizers of singular integ

  5. Social Justice and the Global Economy: New Challenges for Social Work in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polack, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    The globalization of the economy creates new challenges for social work in the arenas of social and economic justice. This article outlines social justice issues related to the debt crisis of the Global South and sweatshops. A presentation of colonial precursors is followed by a detailed examination of these global institutions with an emphasis on…

  6. EDXRF analysis of books from 18 and 19 centuries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work reports the analysis of the elemental composition of paper employed in books from 18 and 19 centuries and also the characterization of pigments used to decorate its edges by means of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). The measurements were carried out with a portable system developed at the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), consisting of an Oxford TF3005 X-ray tube (with W anode) and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. The angle between the X-ray tube and the detector window is 60°, the source-sample and the detector-sample distances are 4 cm. Several spectra were obtained, working at 25 kV and 100 μA, with an acquisition time of 300 seconds and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The results identified the elemental composition of the paper used in the books and the use of the following pigments to decorate its edges: chromium yellow (PbCrO4), barium yellow (BaCrO4), chromium oxide (Cr2O3) or viridian (Cr2O3.H2O), vermilion (HgS) and Prussian blue (Fe4[Fe(CN)6]3.14-16H2O). These results revealed the presence of highly toxic elements/compounds - like lead, mercury and chromates - which were used in the manufacture of ancient pigments. This fact evidences that restorers, conservators and researchers who work directly with these kind of compounds need to take adequate safety measures and use personal protective equipment. (author)

  7. EDXRF analysis of books from 18 and 19 centuries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, Marcelo O., E-mail: marcelocefetrj@gmail.com [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET), Nova Iguacu, RJ (Brazil); Calza, Cristiane; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu, E-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Freitas, Renato P., E-mail: renato.freitas@ifrj.edu.br [Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Paracambi, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work reports the analysis of the elemental composition of paper employed in books from 18 and 19 centuries and also the characterization of pigments used to decorate its edges by means of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). The measurements were carried out with a portable system developed at the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), consisting of an Oxford TF3005 X-ray tube (with W anode) and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. The angle between the X-ray tube and the detector window is 60°, the source-sample and the detector-sample distances are 4 cm. Several spectra were obtained, working at 25 kV and 100 μA, with an acquisition time of 300 seconds and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The results identified the elemental composition of the paper used in the books and the use of the following pigments to decorate its edges: chromium yellow (PbCrO4), barium yellow (BaCrO{sub 4}), chromium oxide (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}) or viridian (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}.H{sub 2}O), vermilion (HgS) and Prussian blue (Fe{sub 4}[Fe(CN){sub 6}]{sub 3}.14-16H{sub 2}O). These results revealed the presence of highly toxic elements/compounds - like lead, mercury and chromates - which were used in the manufacture of ancient pigments. This fact evidences that restorers, conservators and researchers who work directly with these kind of compounds need to take adequate safety measures and use personal protective equipment. (author)

  8. Multi-regional analysis of nuclear future in the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The decarbonization of our future society is a prime objective put forward by many authoritative studies of which the UN Panel on Climate Change provides the most compelling signal demanding to reduce the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the year 2050 by 70% to avert catastrophic change in our planet's climate system. One of the central tasks is a change in the global transformation of energy away from the use of fossil fuel burning towards non-GHG emitting energy transformation technologies. Today's energy technology assessments identify two main categories of such technologies, i.e. renewable energy technologies and nuclear fission, being available to start curbing now towards decarbonization of an ever-expanding global energy system. Nuclear energy can fulfill a significant part of future's energy demand worldwide though he deployment of nuclear energy will be strongly depending on local energy market conditions while sustainability of nuclear being a global objective via the nuclear fuel cycle. A multi-regional analysis of nuclear energy deployment scenarios is therefore a necessity taking account of all constraints, from energy market and fuel cycle (i.e. fissile material availability) perspective, in order to assess the potential for a regional or local nuclear power park deployment while also benefiting of synergies between nuclear power plants via the nuclear fuel cycle in seeking reduced natural resources use and reduced waste arising. ANL undertook a six-region dynamic analysis of nuclear energy system strategies using the multi-regional version of DANESS. Various scenarios including no exchange of spent fuel and/or separated transuranics between regions up to a well-controlled international exchange policy aimed at global nuclear energy sustainability were analysed in detail looking to mass-flows, natural resource use, waste management and economics globally and per region. The paper will detail the results next to providing insights in the key

  9. Greenland's contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graversen, Rune G.; Drijfhout, Sybren; Hazeleger, Wilco; Bintanja, Richard [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Wal, Roderik van de; Helsen, Michiel [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise the global sea level with {proportional_to}7 m. Over the last few decades, observations manifest a substantial increase of the mass loss of this ice sheet. Both enhanced melting and increase of the dynamical discharge, associated with calving at the outlet-glacier fronts, are contributing to the mass imbalance. Using a dynamical and thermodynamical ice-sheet model, and taking into account speed up of outlet glaciers, we estimate Greenland's contribution to the 21st-century global sea-level rise and the uncertainty of this estimate. Boundary fields of temperature and precipitation extracted from coupled climate-model projections used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, are applied to the ice-sheet model. We implement a simple parameterization for increased flow of outlet glaciers, which decreases the bias of the modeled present-day surface height. It also allows for taking into account the observed recent increase in dynamical discharge, and it can be used for future projections associated with outlet-glacier speed up. Greenland contributes 0-17 cm to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. This range includes the uncertainties in climate-model projections, the uncertainty associated with scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as the uncertainties in future outlet-glacier discharge. In addition, the range takes into account the uncertainty of the ice-sheet model and its boundary fields. (orig.)

  10. Multiple Intelligences: The Most Effective Platform for Global 21st Century Educational and Instructional Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, Donovan A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) as the most viable and effective platform for 21st century educational and instructional methodologies based on the understanding of the value of diversity in today's classrooms and educational institutions, the unique qualities and characteristics of individual learners, the…

  11. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2?m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9?m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8?m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

  12. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2014-08-01

    Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5-1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4-0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3-0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of "1-in-10" and "1-in-100" year events.

  13. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET: ANALYSIS AND PERSPECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana COLESNICOVA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the situation on the global financial market is analyzed in the paper. The actuality of this research proceeded from the reality facing the entire global financial system. The purpose of this work is to research the situation on the global financial market based on the complex analysis of the sector. In the process of developing of this work were used the following methods: comparative analysis, synthesis, logical analysis. The results from the well-known companies which provided each year the analysis and ratings between the high net worth individuals wealth levels and growth by world regions, the most successfully International Financial Centres, leading wealth managers, wealth management innovators, Private Banks of the year, Private Bankers of the year etc. are analyzed in the paper.

  14. Being Global: How to Manage Human Resource in the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Stan ªtefania Anca

    2012-01-01

    Markets are global and competitive and the numbers of companies doing business abroad increases every day. Today, the success of individuals and organizations are measured by their adaptability to change. So does the need for international Human Resource Management. The world needs a corps of global leaders who can take on the pressing challenges and contribute to an inclusive and sustainable economic system. The new leaders for the new global environment will have the ability to continuously...

  15. Global Assessment of Schistosomiasis Control Over the Past Century Shows Targeting the Snail Intermediate Host Works Best

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolow, Susanne H.; Wood, Chelsea L.; Jones, Isabel J.; Lopez, Melina; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Kuris, Armand M.; Rickards, Chloe; De Leo, Giulio A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite control efforts, human schistosomiasis remains prevalent throughout Africa, Asia, and South America. The global schistosomiasis burden has changed little since the new anthelmintic drug, praziquantel, promised widespread control. Methodology We evaluated large-scale schistosomiasis control attempts over the past century and across the globe by identifying factors that predict control program success: snail control (e.g., molluscicides or biological control), mass drug administrations (MDA) with praziquantel, or a combined strategy using both. For data, we compiled historical information on control tactics and their quantitative outcomes for all 83 countries and territories in which: (i) schistosomiasis was allegedly endemic during the 20th century, and (ii) schistosomiasis remains endemic, or (iii) schistosomiasis has been "eliminated," or is "no longer endemic," or transmission has been interrupted. Principal Findings Widespread snail control reduced prevalence by 92 ± 5% (N = 19) vs. 37 ± 7% (N = 29) for programs using little or no snail control. In addition, ecological, economic, and political factors contributed to schistosomiasis elimination. For instance, snail control was most common and widespread in wealthier countries and when control began earlier in the 20th century. Conclusions/Significance Snail control has been the most effective way to reduce schistosomiasis prevalence. Despite evidence that snail control leads to long-term disease reduction and elimination, most current schistosomiasis control efforts emphasize MDA using praziquantel over snail control. Combining drug-based control programs with affordable snail control seems the best strategy for eliminating schistosomiasis. PMID:27441556

  16. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    M. Steinacher; F. Joos; T. L. Frölicher; Bopp, L.; Cadule, P.; Doney, S. C.; Gehlen, M.; Schneider, B.; Segschneider, J.

    2009-01-01

    Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes ...

  17. The global transformation: the nineteenth century and the making of modern international relations

    OpenAIRE

    Barry BUZAN; Lawson, George

    2013-01-01

    Unlike many other social sciences, International Relations (IR) spends relatively little time assessing the impact of the 19th century on its principal subject matter. As a result, the discipline fails to understand the ways in which a dramatic reconfiguration of power during the ‘long 19th century’ served to recast core features of international order. This paper examines the extent of this lacuna and establishes the ways in which processes of industrialization, rational state-building, and ...

  18. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

  19. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA ZhuGuo; FU CongBin

    2007-01-01

    The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951 -2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed.The results indicate that the SWl variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia,Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite increases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWl in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

  20. Coal and Climate Change. Will Coal Depart or Dominate Global Power Production During the 21st Century?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Zwaan, B. [Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2004-11-11

    At present, coal power production is the most polluting energy resource in terms of sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and particulate matter emissions, and, as a result, involves the largest external environmental costs among the currently available electricity generation alternatives. Coal is also the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and its present large-scale combustion practices constitute among the prime impediments to implementing effective climate change control regimes. This article analyses the question whether coal must depart or may still dominate power production during the 21st century, in view of the challenges implied by regional pollution reduction and global warming mitigation. Four main reasons are described why, paradoxically, coal is likely to continue to have a high and perhaps even increasing share in global electricity generation this century: (I) its large resource base; (II) the improving efficiency and competitiveness of conventional and innovative coal technologies; (III) the employability of new coal technologies in conjunction with carbon capture and storage systems; (IV) the improving economics of these advanced clean coal technologies.

  1. How global are global brands? An empirical brand equity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cleff, Thomas; Fischer, Lena; Sepúlveda, César; Walter, Nadine

    2010-01-01

    The term 'global brand' has become widely used by the media and by consumers. Business week publishes annually its widely known ranking of the 'Best Global Brands' (with Coca-Cola as number 1 in the past years) and consumers on summer vacations purchase brands such as Heineken or Marlboro they are familiar with from their home country. Although media and consumers call these brands 'global' and centralized marketing departments manage these brands globally - are these 'global brands' really g...

  2. The Global SOF Network: Posturing Special Operations Forces to Ensure Global Security in the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Keenan D. Yoho; Tess deBlanc-Knowles; Randy Borum

    2014-01-01

    Globalization’s “interconnecting” effects have blended with an ethos of instability to create an extraordinarily complex global security environment. Though the number of armed conflicts worldwide has declined since the early 1990s, the character of those conflicts has evolved in some troubling ways. Conventional inter-state wars are less common, but they have been displaced by a proliferation of smaller scale, asymmetric, diffuse and episodic struggles: What Trinquier calls “subversive warfa...

  3. Analysis and Outlook of Global Rare Earth Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIONG Jiaqi

    2008-01-01

    @@ When enterd into 21st century,global rare earth market exhibits pleasing situation in recent years,profitig from fast development of global economy.China represented nearly 60% of global rare earth consumption in 2007.Rare earth consumtion in five advanced materisls including permanent magnets,polishing powder,hydrogen storage materisls,fluorescent materials and auto catalysts accounted for 60% of the tutal consumption.

  4. Global Trade of Perishables in the 21st Century: The Case for Giant Airships

    OpenAIRE

    Prentice, Barry E.; Beilock, Richard P.

    2004-01-01

    The 12 second flight of the world’s first heavier-than-air powered vehicle in 1904 heralded the birth of a new transport mode. In the days, months, and years following that event, it must have been evident that airplanes had a future, but not its shape and extent. The first propeller driven airship was flown 50 years earlier than the Wright Brothers airplane in 1852i. A century and a half later, we may be about to witness the birth, or rebirth, of airships as a transport mode. For airships, i...

  5. The Global SOF Network: Posturing Special Operations Forces to Ensure Global Security in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keenan D. Yoho

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Globalization’s “interconnecting” effects have blended with an ethos of instability to create an extraordinarily complex global security environment. Though the number of armed conflicts worldwide has declined since the early 1990s, the character of those conflicts has evolved in some troubling ways. Conventional inter-state wars are less common, but they have been displaced by a proliferation of smaller scale, asymmetric, diffuse and episodic struggles: What Trinquier calls “subversive warfare or revolutionary warfare.” The participants in these conflicts are not limited to national military forces, but include a range of non-state actors, including militias, ethnic groups, illicit transnational networks, informal paramilitary organizations, and violent extremists. Many of today’s most vexing global threats, including those that affect the United States’ national security interests, emanate from terrorist networks, transnational criminal organizations, rogue states, and the intersection of activities and shared objectives among malicious actors operating from frontiers or “ungoverned spaces.” Special Operations Forces (SOF have had an essential, but evolving, role in countering those threats. The articles assembled in this issue of Journal of Strategic Security examine SOF’s role in the global, joint force of the future. Through a military-academic partnership between U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM and the University of South Florida, five papers have been selected for the purpose of further developing dialogue on issues related to SOF’s pivot toward partnership-driven, indirect action. Some common themes emerge in these works: a view that future security rests in partnerships, and an acknowledgement that the threats, constraints, and realities of the current strategic environment demand applications of “smart power” to assure collective security.

  6. THE DISPUTE BETWEEN POLITICAL THEOLOGY AND THE POLITICS OF THEOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ON THE MEANINGS OF THE POSTMODERN GLOBALIZING AND INDIVIDUALISTIC SOCIETY AND THE CHRISTIAN PERSONALIST GLOBALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian MANOLACHE

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Upon the dawn of postmodernity, in the twenty-first century, we witness the emergence of a new way of thinking and of new forms of culture and life, under the ideology of globalism, whose dominance is given by the practicality and utility related to civilization, and under globality, which is the cultural aspect of globalization, pertaining to the field of culture. The two dimensions of globalization and globality, civilizational and cultural, will (requestion the principle relationship between Christianity and the new postmodern globalizing utopia, requiring to (reconsider the sense and presence of Christianity within the world, and the appropriate sociological figure of the Church, within the new reality of global and globalized humanity, in the postmodern public space. This paper deals with this ideology - globalism and the cultural manifestation of globality, and with the Orthodox answer to the new challenge of individualism and postmodern globalizing (neocollectivism.

  7. [The Antonine plague: A global pestilence in the II century d.C].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáez, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    The Antonine plague was the first plague affecting globally the Western world. It affected all aspects of life of mankind in the Roman Empire: economics, politics, religion and the culture. The especialists set the mortality rate in the 10% of the population. On the other hand the existence of unified Roman Empire from culturally and territorially helped to spreading the plague as it could similarly occur in our society in a similar pandemic. In conclusion, it is argued that the epidemic was global in a sense of the geographical extension and the effects this had on the population. PMID:27314999

  8. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Douglas, D.C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, M.; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, M.C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, J.; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  9. Randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the 20th century climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teija Seitola

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we introduce a new algorithm called randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA, which is a generalisation of the traditional multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA into problems of arbitrarily large dimension. RMSSA consists of (1 a dimension reduction of the original data via random projections, (2 the standard MSSA step and (3 a recovery of the MSSA eigenmodes from the reduced space back to the original space. The RMSSA algorithm is presented in detail and additionally we show how to integrate it with a significance test based on a red noise null-hypothesis by Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, RMSSA is applied to decompose the 20th century global monthly mean near-surface temperature variability into its low-frequency components. The decomposition of a reanalysis data set and two climate model simulations reveals, for instance, that the 2–6 yr variability centred in the Pacific Ocean is captured by all the data sets with some differences in statistical significance and spatial patterns.

  10. Responses of global terrestrial evapotranspiration to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Yang, Qichun; Yang, Jia; Lu, Chaoqun; Tao, Bo; Ren, Wei; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000-2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010-2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545-552) mm yr-1 during 2000-2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090s would increase by 30.7 mm yr-1 (5.6%) and 13.2 mm yr-1 (2.4%) under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. About 60% of global land area would experience increasing ET at rates of over 9.5 mm decade-1 over the study period under the A2 scenario. The Arctic region would have the largest ET increase (16% compared with the 2000s level) due to larger increase in temperature than other regions. Decreased ET would mainly take place in regions like central and western Asia, northern Africa, Australia, eastern South America, and Greenland due to declines in soil moisture and changing rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that warming temperature and increasing precipitation would result in large increase in ET by the end of the 21st century, while increasing atmospheric CO2 would be responsible for decrease in ET, given the reduction of stomatal conductance under elevated CO2.

  11. ECONOMIC ASPECTS REGARDING THE GLOBAL DIMENSION OF POVERTY IN THE XXI CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAUL-BOGDAN ZAMFIR

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we proposed to investigate the spread of poverty phenomenon on the global scale. Also we examined the causes and the efects of unequal distribution of global wealth, emphasing the impact of economic globalization on the deepening of poverty at the international comunity level. In the contemporary context of economic globalization the poverty is a scourge of the international community, that marks a dangerous gap between the many poor and the few rich. On the other hand, the poverty can be rightly considered the deprivation of population or certain population groups of welfare. In generally, for the common man, poverty means hunger, misery and diseases. Also, the poverty is an economical-legal phenomenon. The economic component of poverty consist in the deficiency of resources to ensure a decent standard of living and the access to basic services (health, education etc., while the legal dimension is reflected in the reduced possibility of a person or population groups to benefit from the civil rights and other fundamental rights, as well as the right to lead way of life which he desires or values.

  12. Educating the Business Graduate of the 21st Century: Communication for a Globalized World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briguglio, Carmela

    2007-01-01

    This article examines current business communication education in higher education, particularly in regard to English as a global language. The discussion is situated at the intersection of business communication, intercultural communication, and internationalization of higher education, and the article draws on research from all three fields. The…

  13. From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Byerlee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutional contexts and political economy. In the current period of globalization, as land use changes associated with tropical commodities have accelerated, land issues are now at center stage in the global discourse. However, efforts to protect forests and the rights of local communities and indigenous groups continue to be ad hoc and codification of minimum standards and their implementation remains a work in progress. Given a widespread failure of state directed policies and institutions to curb deforestation and protect land rights, the private sector, with the exception of the rubber industry, is emphasizing voluntary standards to certify sustainability of their products. This is an important step but expectations that they will effectively address concerns about the impact of tropical commodities expansion might be too high, given their voluntary nature, demand constraints, and the challenge of including smallholders. It is also doubtful that private standards can more than partially compensate for long standing weaknesses in land governance and institutions on the forest frontier.

  14. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  15. Antimicrobial Resistance Expressed by Neisseria gonorrhoeae: A Major Global Public Health Problem in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unemo, Magnus; Del Rio, Carlos; Shafer, William M

    2016-06-01

    Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a strictly human pathogen that is typically transmitted by sexual contact. The associated disease gonorrhea has plagued humankind for thousands of years, with a current estimated incidence of 78 million cases per year. Advances in antimicrobial discovery in the 1920s and 1930s leading to the discovery of sulfonamides and penicillin begun the era of effective antimicrobial treatment of gonorrhea. Unfortunately, the gonococcus developed decreased susceptibility or even resistance to these initially employed antibiotics, a trend that continued over subsequent decades with each new antibiotic that was brought into clinical practice. As this pattern of resistance has continued into the 21st century, there is now reason for great concern, especially in an era when few new antibiotics have prospects for use as treatment of gonorrhea. Here, we review the history of gonorrhea treatment regimens and gonococcal resistance to antibiotics, the mechanisms of resistance, resistance monitoring schemes that exist in different international settings, global responses to the challenge of resistance, and prospects for future treatment regimens in the 21st century. PMID:27337478

  16. Geologic and hydrologic hazards in glacierized basins in North America resulting from 19th and 20th century global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Alpine glacier retreat resulting from global warming since the close of the Little Ice Age in the 19th and 20th centuries has increased the risk and incidence of some geologic and hydrologic hazards in mountainous alpine regions of North America. Abundant loose debris in recently deglaciated areas at the toe of alpine glaciers provides a ready source of sediment during rainstorms or outburst floods. This sediment can cause debris flows and sedimentation problems in downstream areas. Moraines built during the Little Ice Age can trap and store large volumes of water. These natural dams have no controlled outlets and can fail without warning. Many glacier-dammed lakes have grown in size, while ice dams have shrunk, resulting in greater risks of ice-dam failure. The retreat and thinning of glacier ice has left oversteepened, unstable valley walls and has led to increased incidence of rock and debris avalanches. ?? 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  17. Conference Report: Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Jan-Henrik

    labour unions and the International Labour Organization. The final panel was devoted to post-1972 issues across the globe. ALLESSANDRO ANTONELLO (Canberra) explained how the scientific concept of the ecosystem became a shorthand reference for political actors designating the political and ecological......'s on the Shaping of an Environmental Labour Agenda. The Case of the French Trade-Unions, 1960-1990 Session 6: IOs Saving Sea, Air and Climate Allessandro Antonello (Canberra): The Protection of the Southern Ocean Ecosystem, 1968-1980 Michel Dupuy (Paris): The Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution......Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies KFG International Conference held on 25-27 October 2012 The long rays of the yellow autumn sun shining on the red leaves of the Free University Berlin's Dahlem Campus...

  18. A Century of Stress: Stress Theories and Preventive Management in a Global Context

    OpenAIRE

    Demetria F. HENDERSON; Tina L. QUICK; James Campbell QUICK

    2015-01-01

    The year 2015 is the 100th anniversary of the first edition of Walter Bradford Cannon’s 1915 book that set the cornerstone for the field of stress. We briefly review his homeostatic approach to stress along with four other approaches, especially as relevant to the industrial and organizational (I/O) psychologist. Next, we explore the contemporary global context in which national cultures vary. We chose the theory of Preventive Stress Management as the basis for examining the five ...

  19. Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  20. Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat of the 21st Century: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mir M. Ali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The tall building is the most dominating symbol of the cities and a human-made marvel that defies gravity by reaching to the clouds. It embodies unrelenting human aspirations to build even higher. It conjures a number of valid questions in our minds. The foremost and fundamental question that is often asked: Why tall buildings? This review paper seeks to answer the question by laying out arguments against and for tall buildings. Then, it provides a brief account of the historic and recent developments of tall buildings including their status during the current economic recession. The paper argues that as cities continue to expand horizontally, to safeguard against their reaching an eventual breaking point, the tall building as a building type is a possible solution by way of conquering vertical space through agglomeration and densification. Case studies of some recently built tall buildings are discussed to illustrate the nature of tall building development in their respective cities. The paper attempts to dispel any discernment about tall buildings as mere pieces of art and architecture by emphasizing their truly speculative, technological, sustainable, and evolving nature. It concludes by projecting a vision of tall buildings and their integration into the cities of the 21st century.

  1. Vision of the global nuclear industry in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A major challenge facing mankind as we enter the XXIst century is to provide a greater fraction of a growing world population with a level of energy services allowing a decent way of life. This awesome challenge is worsened by the vital necessity to reduce the emission to the atmosphere of greenhouse effect gases, notably due to fossil fuel combustion. In this context, nuclear power cannot but be part of the world energy mix, and we might witness the premises of its second souffle. Present nuclear reactors are reliable safe and often very competitive; future reactors will be even safer and might find other use than the sole generation of electricity. One prerequisite for this second souffle is a better public acceptance of nuclear facilities, and part of this acceptance appears conditioned to the assurance of a proper management of the radioactive wastes issued from nuclear power. Nuclear wastes are properly and responsibly managed, but only on an interim basis : it is very important that final repositories for high level wastes are actually implemented.(author)

  2. Beta Gyres in Global Analysis Fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun-Hee KIM; H.Joe KWON; R.L.ELSBERRY

    2009-01-01

    A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre,which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current.Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP,and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study.The structure of the beta gyre obtained in our analyses is in good agreement with the theoretical structure,with a cyclonic circulation to the southwest of the TC center,an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast,and a ventilation flow directed northwestward near the center.The circulation of the beta gyre is strongest at the 850-hPa level where the cyclonically swirling primary circulation is strongest,and decreases with height,in a pyramid shape similar to the primary circulation.The individual structure of the beta gyre is case- and model-dependent.At a certain analysis time,one model may clearly reveal a well-defined beta gyre,but the other models may not.Within one model,the beta gyre may be well defined at some analysis times,but not at other times.The structure of the beta gyre in the analysis field is determined by the nature of the vortex initialization scheme and the model behavior during the 6-h forecast in the operational data assimilation cycle.

  3. HACCP and risk analysis in global

    OpenAIRE

    Uhlenhopps Eldon K.

    2002-01-01

    Recent public concern regarding food safety, and the implementation of Global regulations and agreements on trade, have given rise to questions regarding the veterinarian’s role and expertise in formally assessing and mitigating these risk. The objective of this work is to demonstrate latest knowledge on Risk Analysis as a process, to review HACCP with regard to food safety and defense against introduction of infectious agents.

  4. Variational global analysis of satellite temperature soundings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M.; Kalnay, E.

    1983-01-01

    A variational spherical harmonic analysis is developed for the production of global geopotential height and geostropic wind fields from the TIROS-N spacecraft's temperature sounding profiles. This scheme is based on Tykhonov's (1964) regularization method, and the smoothing parameter is determined by cross validation. The scheme is noted to be stable and computationally efficient, and it does not depend on a priori information. Its applications to three-dimensional temperature retrievals and to four-dimensional spectral analyses are illustrated.

  5. HACCP and risk analysis in global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uhlenhopps Eldon K.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent public concern regarding food safety, and the implementation of Global regulations and agreements on trade, have given rise to questions regarding the veterinarian’s role and expertise in formally assessing and mitigating these risk. The objective of this work is to demonstrate latest knowledge on Risk Analysis as a process, to review HACCP with regard to food safety and defense against introduction of infectious agents.

  6. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period, 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  7. Conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos

    2001-01-01

    There has been much recent progress in global optimization algo­ rithms for nonconvex continuous and discrete problems from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Convex analysis plays a fun­ damental role in the analysis and development of global optimization algorithms. This is due essentially to the fact that virtually all noncon­ vex optimization problems can be described using differences of convex functions and differences of convex sets. A conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization was held during June 5 -9, 2000 at Pythagorion, Samos, Greece. The conference was honoring the memory of C. Caratheodory (1873-1950) and was en­ dorsed by the Mathematical Programming Society (MPS) and by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Activity Group in Optimization. The conference was sponsored by the European Union (through the EPEAEK program), the Department of Mathematics of the Aegean University and the Center for Applied Optimization of the University of Florida, by th...

  8. A global analysis of island pyrogeography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauernicht, C.; Murphy, B. P.

    2014-12-01

    Islands have provided insight into the ecological role of fire worldwide through research on the positive feedbacks between fire and nonnative grasses, particularly in the Hawaiian Islands. However, the global extent and frequency of fire on islands as an ecological disturbance has received little attention, possibly because 'natural fires' on islands are typically limited to infrequent dry lightning strikes and isolated volcanic events. But because most contemporary fires on islands are anthropogenic, islands provide ideal systems with which to understand the linkages between socio-economic development, shifting fire regimes, and ecological change. Here we use the density of satellite-derived (MODIS) active fire detections for the years 2000-2014 and global data sets of vegetation, climate, population density, and road development to examine the drivers of fire activity on islands at the global scale, and compare these results to existing pyrogeographic models derived from continental data sets. We also use the Hawaiian Islands as a case study to understand the extent to which novel fire regimes can pervade island ecosystems. The global analysis indicates that fire is a frequent disturbance across islands worldwide, strongly affected by human activities, indicating people can more readily override climatic drivers than on continental land masses. The extent of fire activity derived from local records in the Hawaiian Islands reveals that our global analysis likely underestimates the prevalence of fire among island systems and that the combined effects of human activity and invasion by nonnative grasses can create conditions for frequent and relatively large-scale fires. Understanding the extent of these novel fire regimes, and mitigating their impacts, is critical to reducing the current and rapid degradation of native island ecosystems worldwide.

  9. Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Fridolin; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Bondeau, Alberte; Gaube, Veronika; Lauk, Christian; Plutzar, Christoph; Searchinger, Timothy D

    2013-06-18

    Global increases in population, consumption, and gross domestic product raise concerns about the sustainability of the current and future use of natural resources. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) provides a useful measure of human intervention into the biosphere. The productive capacity of land is appropriated by harvesting or burning biomass and by converting natural ecosystems to managed lands with lower productivity. This work analyzes trends in HANPP from 1910 to 2005 and finds that although human population has grown fourfold and economic output 17-fold, global HANPP has only doubled. Despite this increase in efficiency, HANPP has still risen from 6.9 Gt of carbon per y in 1910 to 14.8 GtC/y in 2005, i.e., from 13% to 25% of the net primary production of potential vegetation. Biomass harvested per capita and year has slightly declined despite growth in consumption because of a decline in reliance on bioenergy and higher conversion efficiencies of primary biomass to products. The rise in efficiency is overwhelmingly due to increased crop yields, albeit frequently associated with substantial ecological costs, such as fossil energy inputs, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss. If humans can maintain the past trend lines in efficiency gains, we estimate that HANPP might only grow to 27-29% by 2050, but providing large amounts of bioenergy could increase global HANPP to 44%. This result calls for caution in refocusing the energy economy on land-based resources and for strategies that foster the continuation of increases in land-use efficiency without excessively increasing ecological costs of intensification. PMID:23733940

  10. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  11. Global Conflict and Elite Integration in the 19th and Early 20th Centuries

    OpenAIRE

    Barr, Kenneth; Shoon Lio; Christopher Schmitt; Anders Carlson; Kirk Lawrence; Jonathan Krause; Yvonne Hsu; Christopher Chase-Dunn; Thomas E. Reifer

    2006-01-01

    ] This is a draft of a paper to be presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, in Montréal, Canada, at 10:30 am on August 11, 2006 at the session on World Systems organized by Farshad Araghi. It is a product of the Global Elites Research Group based at the Institute for Research on World-Systems, and has included among its members for 2005-06 Kenneth Barr, Anders Carlson, Christopher Chase-Dunn, Rebecca Giem, Shoon Lio, Yvonne Hsu, Linda Kim, Jonathan Krause, Kir...

  12. Developing Global Leaders for Research, Regulation, and Stewardship of Crop Protection Chemistry in the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, John B; Corsi, Camilla; Van Emon, Jeanette M; Farenhorst, Annemieke; Hamilton, Denis J; Howard, Cody J; Hunter, Robert; Jenkins, Jeffrey J; Kleter, Gijs A; Kookana, Rai S; Lalah, Joseph O; Leggett, Michael; Miglioranza, Karina S B; Miyagawa, Hisashi; Peranginangin, Natalia; Rubin, Baruch; Saha, Bipul; Shakil, Najam A

    2016-01-13

    To provide sufficient food and fiber to the increasing global population, the technologies associated with crop protection are growing ever more sophisticated but, at the same time, societal expectations for the safe use of crop protection chemistry tools are also increasing. The goal of this perspective is to highlight the key issues that face future leaders in crop protection, based on presentations made during a symposium titled "Developing Global Leaders for Research, Regulation and Stewardship of Crop Protection Chemistry in the 21st Century", held in conjunction with the IUPAC 13th International Congress of Pesticide Chemistry in San Francisco, CA, USA, during August 2014. The presentations highlighted the fact that leaders in crop protection must have a good basic scientific training and understand new and evolving technologies, are aware of the needs of both developed and developing countries, and have good communication skills. Concern is expressed over the apparent lack of resources to meet these needs, and ideas are put forward to remedy these deficiencies. PMID:25855233

  13. Globalization and the Cuban Revolution in the Twenty-First Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Lambie

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article questions the assumption that Cuba’s reform process must eventually make concessions to, and perhaps eventually join, the wider global world system dominated by neo-liberal economics and democracy as defined by the advocates of this world order. To undertake this task it is necessary to explain globalization and distinguish it from the preceding post-war period and then seek to understand the consequences of its ascendency, especially its failure to produce a sustainable model of development. In this context Cuba’s socialist experiment will be considered as an alternative, both in the form of its performance in social provision and its ideology of community above that of the individual. While these strengths may be attractive to those forces in the world that wish to resist globalization and build something new, Cuba as a single country example is not viable. Consequently these achievements can only become part of a transformative force if they are integrated with already existing popular resistance to the current neo-liberal order. Finally, it is argued this symbiosis is taking place in Latin America where Cuba is deeply involved with new social movements and progressive governments.Resumen: La globalización y la revolución cubana en el siglo XXIEn este artículo se cuestiona la aserción de que el proceso de reformas en Cuba debe hacer concesiones, y quizás, finalmente, incorporarse al sistema global dominado por la economía neoliberal y la democracia tal como son definidas por los defensores de este orden mundial. Para emprender esta labor, es necesario explicar la globalización y distinguirla del período precedente de posguerra y luego tratar de entender las consecuencias de su influencia, especialmente en su incapacidad de producir un modelo de desarrollo sustentable. En este contexto, el experimento socialista de Cuba será considerado como una alternativa, tanto en cuanto a sus resultados en cuanto a la previsi

  14. Japanese Higher Education Institutions in the 21st Century: The Challenge of Globalization and Internationalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AOKI, Kumiko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Higher education institutions in Japan are facing unprecedented challenges today due to the following three factors:the decrease in the size of college age cohorts in the coming years; heightened expectations in the modes of instructional delivery through the advances of information and communication technologies (ICT; global competition for college students worldwide especially from English-speaking countries. This paper examines internationalization of higher education in Japan in terms of:foreign faculty members in Japan, foreign tertiary students in Japan, Japanese students studying abroad, branch campuses of foreign colleges and universities in Japan, off-shore campuses of Japanese colleges and universities, and cross-border higher education through e-learning.

  15. Global energy prospects in the 21st century: a battery-based society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoda, Susumu; Ishihara, Kaoru

    Current energy needs are nearly totally dependent on fossil fuels. This is causing global warming and exhaustion of resources; it is important to switch to more efficient and effective energy use. These circumstances are expanding the role of secondary batteries. Non-fossil fuels such as photovoltaic cells and wind energy are unstable, but combining them with secondary batteries improves their stability as electric power sources. If electrical load leveling between day and night can be achieved by storing electric power, it will be possible to achieve a high capacity utilization rate for generating facilities that have high generating efficiency and produce little CO 2. Depending on the generating mix, the practicalization of electric vehicles will serve not only to alleviate air pollution, but also to limit CO 2 emissions. There are hopes for the development of large-capacity lithium secondary batteries with long cycle life, high energy density, high power density, and high energy efficiency.

  16. Role of nuclear energy in the global energy picture of the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Problems associated with fossil fuel (Gulf crisis, ecology, conservation, global warming) cannot be solved with saving and renewables alone. A larger nuclear share of electricity, electricity for more applications, and nuclear heat are needed. For the last, the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) is best suited. Its most important contribution would be the production of methanol as a motor fuel. Also nuclear steel-making, H2 and CO for chemistry and refineries, A12O3 kilns, process steam for industry, oil production and desalination, district heating or production of H2, substitute natural gas, and liquefied coal for space heating should be considered. Later on, nuclear current and HTGR heat can be used to split water to produce hydrogen. An international effort is recommended to exploit these possibilities. (Author)

  17. Relationship between the local, regional and global - Montenegro in the XXI century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vujačić Lidija

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cultural and demographic changes that Montenegro will be facing in the coming decades will be strongly influenced by both external and internal factors. First of all, they will be instigated by the national, and especially the European (cultural integration, and by the process of (cultural globalization. Migratory movements, associated with rapidly-surging migration of people across national borders will also take their toll on the acculturative processes in Montenegro. The aforementioned cultural dynamics can predominantly be observed with respect to general tendencies. However, it is possible to identify national cultural challenges and formulate the means of overpowering them in a way that is in line with the concept of democratic and multicultural development in Montenegro.

  18. Global water crisis: the major issue of the 21st century, a growing and explosive problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeijs, H L; Van Berkel, M J

    1995-07-01

    The authors explore what is considered to be the emerging issue of the 21st century, shortages of water. It is expected that the Netherlands, which is entirely dependent on water from other countries, will be in an extremely vulnerable position. The quantity of fresh water is limited. Contamination of water reduces water quality and availability. Many World Bank projects focus on management of the water supply for sanitation, irrigation, hydroelectric power, and construction of dikes in order to prevent flooding. The World Bank concludes that everyone worldwide must acknowledge that fresh water is a scarce natural resource. The Action Plan, Agenda 21, of the UN Rio Conference emphasized the importance of the widespread shortage, gradual destruction, and increased pollution of fresh water reserves. The four major world problems with fresh water are 1) shortages of renewable supplies, 2) unequal distribution of supplies, 3) problems of water quality and health, and 4) disastrous effects of unrestrained construction of dams and reservoirs. Only 2.5% of the total amount of water on earth is fresh water, of which 69.4% is in the form of ice, snow, or permafrost and most of the remainder is ground water. Fresh water in lakes and rivers is only about 1% of fresh water available on earth. Most of the precipitation that falls on land every year is lost through evaporation. 45,000 sq. km is the absolute maximum available annually. Distribution of water among industry, agriculture, and households varies by country. Arid regions constitute about 33% of Europe, 60% of Asia, 85% of Africa, and most of Australia and western North America. 14% of countries are at or under the poverty line of water availability, 37% have dangerously dry conditions, 14% have average levels, and 35% have ample supplies. Examples of water management are given for the Amazon River, the Euphrates and Tigris, the Aral Sea, and the Rhine River Basin. It is estimated that the world supply of fresh water

  19. Global stability analysis of axisymmetric boundary layers

    CERN Document Server

    Vinod, N

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the linear global stability analysis of the incompressible axisymmetric boundary layer on a circular cylinder. The base flow is parallel to the axis of the cylinder at inlet. The pressure gradient is zero in the streamwise direction. The base flow velocity profile is fully non-parallel and non-similar in nature. The boundary layer grows continuously in the spatial directions. Linearized Navier-Stokes(LNS) equations are derived for the disturbance flow quantities in the cylindrical polar coordinates. The LNS equations along with homogeneous boundary conditions forms a generalized eigenvalues problem. Since the base flow is axisymmetric, the disturbances are periodic in azimuthal direction. Chebyshev spectral collocation method and Arnoldi's iterative algorithm is used for the solution of the general eigenvalues problem. The global temporal modes are computed for the range of Reynolds numbers and different azimuthal wave numbers. The largest imaginary part of the computed eigenmodes are nega...

  20. Bringing Competency Analysis into the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayeski, Diane M.; Golden, Thomas P.; Andrade, Stephen; Mason, Hilary

    2007-01-01

    Current business and educational environments are mandating the identification, building, and assessment of specific critical competencies for the workforce. However, traditional approaches to competency analysis are often slow, expensive, and backward looking. This article presents several new computer-aided approaches to competency analysis and…

  1. Unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal medicine: global disaster response in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Russell J; Quintana, Leonidas M

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations has recognized the devastating consequences of "unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal" disasters-at least US $2 trillion in economic damage and more than 1.3 million lives lost from natural disasters in the last two decades alone. In many disasters (both natural and man-made) hundreds-and in major earthquakes, thousands-of lives are lost in the first days following the event because of the lack of medical/surgical facilities to treat those with potentially survivable injuries. Disasters disrupt and destroy not only medical facilities in the disaster zone but also infrastructure (roads, airports, electricity) and potentially local healthcare personnel as well. To minimize morbidity and mortality from disasters, medical treatment must begin immediately, within minutes ideally, but certainly within 24 h (not the days to weeks currently seen in medical response to disasters). This requires that all resources-medical equipment and support, and healthcare personnel-be portable and readily available; transport to the disaster site will usually require helicopters, as military medical response teams in developed countries have demonstrated. Some of the resources available and in development for immediate medical response for disasters-from portable CT scanners to telesurgical capabilities-are described. For immediate deployment, these resources-medical equipment and personnel-must be ready for deployment on a moment's notice and not require administrative approvals or bureaucratic authorizations from numerous national and international agencies, as is presently the case. Following the "trauma center/stroke center" model, disaster response incorporating "disaster response centers" would be seamlessly integrated into the ongoing daily healthcare delivery systems worldwide, from medical education and specialty training (resident/registrar) to acute and subacute intensive care to long-term rehabilitation. The benefits of such a global disaster

  2. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations - Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

  3. The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century – A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenyon, Chris Richard; Osbak, Kara; Tsoumanis, Achilleas

    2016-01-01

    Background How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008

  4. Rethinking Teacher Education: Synchronizing Eastern and Western Views of Teaching and Learning to Promote 21st Century Skills and Global Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Judith; Hu, Ran

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to share findings with educators across disciplines of how to incorporate an eastern and western blended philosophy of teaching and learning to promote 21st century skills and global perspectives. Drawing from a previous self-study of their views of teaching and learning between Chinese and American cultures, the two…

  5. Science Education and the Challenges Facing Its Integration into the 21st Century School System in a Globalized World: A Case of Igbo Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeudu, F. O.; Nkokelonye, C. U.; Ezeudu, S. A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a study of historical foundations of science education in Igboland, its nature and scope as well as the challenges facing its integration into the 21st century school system in a globalized world. The authors found that there were many scientific activities in Igbo culture, but many problems hinder their integration into the basic…

  6. Globalization and the Spatial Economy: Implications for the Amazon Basin in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, E.; Walker, R.; Richards, P.

    2011-12-01

    Global demand for food and energy will increase in the next decades as world population grows, incomes in developing countries rise, and new energy sources from biofuels are sought. Despite gains in productivity, much of the future demand for those agricultural products will be met by bringing new lands into production. Tropical forests, and in particular the Brazilian Amazon, the focus of our article, are already facing pressures from expanding production of soy, beef, cotton, and biofuels as deforestation advances the agricultural frontier. This article begins by reviewing the recent literature and provides evidences of indirect land cover change in the Amazon driven by the tandem soy - cattle, whereby mechanized agriculture encroaches on existing pastures, displacing them to the Amazonian frontier. We then consider conditions in the spatial economy that potentially inhibit ongoing forest loss. In particular, we address the prospect of forest transition in the Amazon basin. This necessitates a review of the so-called Borlaug hypothesis, and the circumstances under which land sparing occurs. Land sparing, a sufficient if not necessary condition for forest transition, represents a potential solution to environmental problems associated with land change, one that promotes sustainability by furthering rural development with improved technologies. The paper concludes by contrasting the current Brazilian agricultural and environmental policies with the conditions set in the previous section.

  7. Global meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldas, José; Vinga, Susana

    2014-01-01

    Transcriptomics meta-analysis aims at re-using existing data to derive novel biological hypotheses, and is motivated by the public availability of a large number of independent studies. Current methods are based on breaking down studies into multiple comparisons between phenotypes (e.g. disease vs. healthy), based on the studies' experimental designs, followed by computing the overlap between the resulting differential expression signatures. While useful, in this methodology each study yields multiple independent phenotype comparisons, and connections are established not between studies, but rather between subsets of the studies corresponding to phenotype comparisons. We propose a rank-based statistical meta-analysis framework that establishes global connections between transcriptomics studies without breaking down studies into sets of phenotype comparisons. By using a rank product method, our framework extracts global features from each study, corresponding to genes that are consistently among the most expressed or differentially expressed genes in that study. Those features are then statistically modelled via a term-frequency inverse-document frequency (TF-IDF) model, which is then used for connecting studies. Our framework is fast and parameter-free; when applied to large collections of Homo sapiens and Streptococcus pneumoniae transcriptomics studies, it performs better than similarity-based approaches in retrieving related studies, using a Medical Subject Headings gold standard. Finally, we highlight via case studies how the framework can be used to derive novel biological hypotheses regarding related studies and the genes that drive those connections. Our proposed statistical framework shows that it is possible to perform a meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies with arbitrary experimental designs by deriving global expression features rather than decomposing studies into multiple phenotype comparisons. PMID:24586684

  8. Intelligent Data Analysis in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Paul; Adams, Niall

    When IDA began, data sets were small and clean, data provenance and management were not significant issues, workflows and grid computing and cloud computing didn’t exist, and the world was not populated with billions of cellphone and computer users. The original conception of intelligent data analysis — automating some of the reasoning of skilled data analysts — has not been updated to account for the dramatic changes in what skilled data analysis means, today. IDA might update its mission to address pressing problems in areas such as climate change, habitat loss, education, and medicine. It might anticipate data analysis opportunities five to ten years out, such as customizing educational trajectories to individual students, and personalizing medical protocols. Such developments will elevate the conference and our community by shifting our focus from arbitrary measures of the performance of isolated algorithms to the practical, societal value of intelligent data analysis systems.

  9. Sun-genesis 21: Empowering the global village in the digital age and the solar century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamasaki, Les [Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2000-07-01

    Sun-Genesis 21 is a global economic development plan for creating an environmentally sustainable future in the developing world. Its premise is that the solution to the survival of civil stability and democracy in developing countries in the Information Age is to slow the migration of the rural poor into the urban centers as well as dispersing some of the residents of the already impacted cities into new agro-communities. This strategy envisions empowering the 25 million coffee farmers located in the poorest countries in the world to control their own economic destiny by marketing their products directly to the international marketplace over the World Wide Web (Coffee Belt Plan 2020). The plan also envisions creating a network of new agricultural communities called World Farm Solar Telecommunities that utilizes telecommunications and environmental technologies to disperse the impacted urban population. Proven profitable commodities such as industrial hemp, aloe vera, and aquacultural farming will be the economic foundation of these agro-communities. The goal is to empower rural agro-entrepreneurs to become an economic engine for job creation and be able to afford the Coffee Solar Televillages that include distant learning centers, telemedicine clinics, food processing centers, e-commerce centers, and solar crop-drying centers. The Genesis 21 program includes creative financing strategies to deal with these massive problems of poverty and hunger through the concept of trade, not aid, including the use of barter in a proposed Green Technology for Green Coffee program. [Spanish] Sun-Genesis 21 es un plan global de desarrollo economico para crear un futuro ambiental sustentable en el mundo en desarrollo. La premisa del plan es que la solucion para la supervivencia de la estabilidad civil y la democracia en paises en desarrollo dentro de la Era de la Informacion es desacelerar la migracion de la gente pobre de las areas rurales hacia los centros urbanos, asi como

  10. Global analysis of the phase calibration operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lannes, André

    2005-04-01

    A global approach to phase calibration is presented. The corresponding theoretical framework calls on elementary concepts of algebraic graph theory (spanning tree of maximal weight, cycles) and algebraic number theory (lattice, nearest lattice point). The traditional approach can thereby be better understood. In radio imaging and in optical interferometry, the self-calibration procedures must often be conducted with much care. The analysis presented should then help in finding a better compromise between the coverage of the calibration graph (which must be as complete as possible) and the quality of the solution (which must of course be reliable).

  11. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  12. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  13. Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3°C on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. It is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4-1.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China.

  14. The real and the complex a history of analysis in the 19th century

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    This book contains a history of real and complex analysis in the nineteenth century, from the work of Lagrange and Fourier to the origins of set theory and the modern foundations of analysis. It studies the works of many contributors including Gauss, Cauchy, Riemann, and Weierstrass. This book is unique owing to the treatment of real and complex analysis as overlapping, inter-related subjects, in keeping with how they were seen at the time. It is suitable as a course in the history of mathematics for students who have studied an introductory course in analysis, and will enrich any course in undergraduate real or complex analysis.

  15. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations - Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large

  16. Historical changes and future projections of precipitation and its extremes in the 20th and 21st century simulation by a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitoh, A.; Kamiguchi, K.; Arakawa, O.; Kusunoki, S.

    2010-12-01

    Climate of the 20th century simulation was conducted with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AM60km) from year 1872 to the present, forced with observed historical sea surface temperature and sea ice (HadISST1). Time variations of global and hemisphere average land surface air temperatures are reasonably well simulated in the 20th century. The number of simulated tropical cyclone in the whole globe has decreasing trend throughout the 20th century. Precipitation of the Monsoon Asia region is evaluated against the newly created daily gridded precipitation data set (APHRODITE), which improves topographic features in mountainous regions. The observed data set indicates a delay of the East Asian early summer rainy season (Baiu) in recent decades. The MRI-AM60km well reproduces this feature, but also shows multi-decadal variability. The same model is used for the future climate projections throughout the 21st century. Changes in mountainous precipitaion as well as extreme precipitation are also investigated.

  17. Analyzing the Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-Lemma Facing World Agriculture: Global Land Use in the Coming Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.

    2011-12-01

    The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 3 billion people by 2100. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day, this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets. To compound matters, water, a key input into agricultural production, is rapidly diminishing in availability in large parts of the world and many soils are degrading. In addition, agriculture and forestry are increasingly envisioned as key sectors for climate change mitigation policy. Any serious attempt to reduce land-based emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on the expansion of farming - particularly in the tropics, where most of the agricultural land conversion has come at the expense of forests, either directly, or indirectly via a cascading of land use requirements with crops moving into pasture and pasture into forest. Finally, agriculture and forestry are likely to be the economic sectors whose productivity is most sharply affected by climate change. In light of these challenges facing the global farm and food system, this paper will review the main sources of supply and demand for the world's cropland, and then provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of these forces on global land use over the coming century. The model incorporates forward looking behavior and examines competition between land used for ecosystem services, forestry, food and fuel. Explicit account is taken of emissions associated with both the intensive and extensive margins of agricultural expansion, as well as carbon sequestration and energy combustion. Key findings include: (a) energy prices and environmental policies will be increasingly important drivers of land use

  18. An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Rupp

    2016-01-01

    The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

  19. Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the 20th century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Mogollón, José M.; Middelburg, Jack J.

    2016-04-01

    Various human activities - including agriculture, water consumption, river damming, and aquaculture - have intensified over the last century. This has had a major impact on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling in global continental waters. In this study, we use a coupled nutrient-input-hydrology-in-stream nutrient retention model to quantitatively track the changes in the global freshwater N and P cycles over the 20th century. Our results suggest that, during this period, the global nutrient delivery to streams increased from 34 to 64 Tg N yr-1 and from 5 to 9 Tg P yr-1. Furthermore, in-stream retention and removal grew from 14 to 27 Tg N yr-1 and 3 to 5 Tg P yr-1. One of the major causes of increased retention is the growing number of reservoirs, which now account for 24 and 22 % of global N and P retention/removal in freshwater systems, respectively. This increase in nutrient retention could not balance the increase in nutrient delivery to rivers with the consequence that river nutrient transport to the ocean increased from 19 to 37 Tg N yr-1 and from 2 to 4 Tg P yr-1. Human activities have also led to a global increase in the molar N : P ratio in freshwater bodies.

  20. A study on the energy civilization in the 21st century and the analysis of the span of life or the energy recourses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study should have been mainly composed of the pre-estimate of the future views on the balancing of energy demand and supply in the 21st century related to global environmental matters and the analysis of the span of life of the usable energy resources in the 21st century. Due to the project interruption by the PBS input, this study carried out partly the investigation and the analysis of energy demand supply, which regarded to economic circumstances and environmental control regulations. Therefore, this intermediate report shall be an important reference to analyze the span of practical life of the usable energy resources in order to improve the usable capability of energy utilization for the future. 14 refs. (Author)

  1. Estimating the supply and demand for deep geologic CO2 storage capacity over the course of the 21st Century: A meta-analysis of the literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.

    2013-08-05

    Whether there is sufficient geologic CO2 storage capacity to allow CCS to play a significant role in mitigating climate change has been the subject of debate since the 1990s. This paper presents a meta- analysis of a large body of recently published literature to derive updated estimates of the global deep geologic storage resource as well as the potential demand for this geologic CO2 storage resource over the course of this century. This analysis reveals that, for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios that have end-of-century atmospheric CO2 concentrations of between 350 ppmv and 725 ppmv, the average demand for deep geologic CO2 storage over the course of this century is between 410 GtCO2 and 1,670 GtCO2. The literature summarized here suggests that -- depending on the stringency of criteria applied to calculate storage capacity – global geologic CO2 storage capacity could be: 35,300 GtCO2 of “theoretical” capacity; 13,500 GtCO2 of “effective” capacity; 3,900 GtCO2, of “practical” capacity; and 290 GtCO2 of “matched” capacity for the few regions where this narrow definition of capacity has been calculated. The cumulative demand for geologic CO2 storage is likely quite small compared to global estimates of the deep geologic CO2 storage capacity, and therefore, a “lack” of deep geologic CO2 storage capacity is unlikely to be an impediment for the commercial adoption of CCS technologies in this century.

  2. Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

    2013-05-01

    A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis. PMID:23530815

  3. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  4. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  5. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  6. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  7. Global analysis of photosynthesis transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imam, Saheed; Noguera, Daniel R; Donohue, Timothy J

    2014-12-01

    Photosynthesis is a crucial biological process that depends on the interplay of many components. This work analyzed the gene targets for 4 transcription factors: FnrL, PrrA, CrpK and MppG (RSP_2888), which are known or predicted to control photosynthesis in Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq) identified 52 operons under direct control of FnrL, illustrating its regulatory role in photosynthesis, iron homeostasis, nitrogen metabolism and regulation of sRNA synthesis. Using global gene expression analysis combined with ChIP-seq, we mapped the regulons of PrrA, CrpK and MppG. PrrA regulates ∼34 operons encoding mainly photosynthesis and electron transport functions, while CrpK, a previously uncharacterized Crp-family protein, regulates genes involved in photosynthesis and maintenance of iron homeostasis. Furthermore, CrpK and FnrL share similar DNA binding determinants, possibly explaining our observation of the ability of CrpK to partially compensate for the growth defects of a ΔFnrL mutant. We show that the Rrf2 family protein, MppG, plays an important role in photopigment biosynthesis, as part of an incoherent feed-forward loop with PrrA. Our results reveal a previously unrealized, high degree of combinatorial regulation of photosynthetic genes and significant cross-talk between their transcriptional regulators, while illustrating previously unidentified links between photosynthesis and the maintenance of iron homeostasis. PMID:25503406

  8. Global analysis of photosynthesis transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saheed Imam

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Photosynthesis is a crucial biological process that depends on the interplay of many components. This work analyzed the gene targets for 4 transcription factors: FnrL, PrrA, CrpK and MppG (RSP_2888, which are known or predicted to control photosynthesis in Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq identified 52 operons under direct control of FnrL, illustrating its regulatory role in photosynthesis, iron homeostasis, nitrogen metabolism and regulation of sRNA synthesis. Using global gene expression analysis combined with ChIP-seq, we mapped the regulons of PrrA, CrpK and MppG. PrrA regulates ∼34 operons encoding mainly photosynthesis and electron transport functions, while CrpK, a previously uncharacterized Crp-family protein, regulates genes involved in photosynthesis and maintenance of iron homeostasis. Furthermore, CrpK and FnrL share similar DNA binding determinants, possibly explaining our observation of the ability of CrpK to partially compensate for the growth defects of a ΔFnrL mutant. We show that the Rrf2 family protein, MppG, plays an important role in photopigment biosynthesis, as part of an incoherent feed-forward loop with PrrA. Our results reveal a previously unrealized, high degree of combinatorial regulation of photosynthetic genes and significant cross-talk between their transcriptional regulators, while illustrating previously unidentified links between photosynthesis and the maintenance of iron homeostasis.

  9. NASA/GSFC Research Activities for the Global Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Prospectus for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, W. W.; Behrenfield, M. J.; Hoge, F. E.; Esaias, W. E.; Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.; McClain, C. R.

    2000-01-01

    There are increasing concerns that anthropogenic inputs of carbon dioxide into the Earth system have the potential for climate change. In response to these concerns, the GSFC Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes has formed the Ocean Carbon Science Team (OCST) to contribute to greater understanding of the global ocean carbon cycle. The overall goals of the OCST are to: 1) detect changes in biological components of the ocean carbon cycle through remote sensing of biooptical properties, 2) refine understanding of ocean carbon uptake and sequestration through application of basic research results, new satellite algorithms, and improved model parameterizations, 3) develop and implement new sensors providing critical missing environmental information related to the oceanic carbon cycle and the flux of CO2 across the air-sea interface. The specific objectives of the OCST are to: 1) establish a 20-year time series of ocean color, 2) develop new remote sensing technologies, 3) validate ocean remote sensing observations, 4) conduct ocean carbon cycle scientific investigations directly related to remote sensing data, emphasizing physiological, empirical and coupled physical/biological models, satellite algorithm development and improvement, and analysis of satellite data sets. These research and mission objectives are intended to improve our understanding of global ocean carbon cycling and contribute to national goals by maximizing the use of remote sensing data.

  10. About role of 'Nuclear sciences' and other trends of scientific and technological works in innovation development of phenomena and globalization processes in XX and XXI centuries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is concluded, that just successful development of scientific and technological works in the field 'Nuclear Sciences' results economy advantages for USA and some West countries compared with USSR and the rest countries of East Europe. In the following decades this advantage allows to a leader-countries develop with success principally new trends of scientific, technological workings in the a wide-scale sphere of natural, technical, biomedical, and other related sciences. Here soon the USA gap from other world countries was achieved. In the field of fundamental sciences there are such fields: Computer Sciences (1940 and then), Space Sciences (1950 and then), Life Sciences (1960 and then), Computer tomography Sciences (1970 and then). Material Researches Sciences (1980 and then), Internet Sciences (1994 and then), Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (1999 and then). In the end of XX century these advantages allow to USA to realize two known global innovation initiatives having National character: Ballistic Missile Defense - from 1983, Internet - from 1994, and to declare the third one - targeting to the XXI century - Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies - from 1999. It is noted, that due to unexampled high temps of development of phenomena and globalization in the XXI century the specialists and professionals of Uzbekistan in the shortest time have to learn the newest world experience in order to ensure worthy status for the young independent state in the world developed countries commonwealth in new age

  11. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  12. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado; Lopes, António M.

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the...

  13. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21): A big-data fusion approach

    CERN Document Server

    Hamilton, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    CGMFC-21 provides high resolution local, regional, national, and global estimates of annual mangrove forest levels using continuous data from 2000 through to 2012 with the goal of driving mangrove research questions pertaining to biodiversity, climate change, food security, livelihoods, fisheries support, and conservation that have been hindered until now by a lack of suitable data. CGMFC-21 provides the required spatiotemporal resolutions to not only set REDD baseline measures globally in a systematic manner, but also to account for forest degradation as well as deforestation on an annual basis. Countries showing relatively high levels of 21st Century mangrove loss include Myanmar, Guatemala, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Many nations that have reported mangrove deforestation in earlier periods such as Ecuador, Bangladesh and Nigeria, have stabilized their mangrove levels during this period. Indonesia remains by far the largest mangrove holding nation containing between 26.16% and 28.50% of the global m...

  14. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  15. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  16. Globalization and Mondialisation - A Conceptual Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cosma Sorinel

    2012-01-01

    Definitely one of the most controversial terms in recent history, globalization (also spelt globalisation) was called “the most abused word of the 21 st century” by The Economist. Many authors fear that it is bound to become the cliché of our times. The concept behind the word radiates such a multiplicity of phenomena that in time it has received a tremendous number of definitions given by various people in various contexts having various purposes in mind. The concept of globalization is rela...

  17. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  18. The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minnen, van J.G.; Goldewijk, K.K.; Stehfest, E.; Eickhout, B.; Drecht, van G.; Leemans, R.

    2009-01-01

    Large amounts of carbon (C) have been released into the atmosphere over the past centuries. Less than half of this C stays in the atmosphere. The remainder is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Where does the C come from and where and when does this uptake occur? We address these que

  19. An Analysis of Accounting Brazilian Studies Published in the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Ewerton Alex Avelar; Terence Machado Boina; Lívia Maria de Pádua Ribeiro; Thiago de Sousa Santos

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims at presenting a research that analyzed features of studies published on the main Brazilian journals of Accounting in the 21st Century. The data were collected from 2,334 papers published in the 17 main Brazilian journals in according to Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES). Primarily, those papers had examined using the content analysis and organized in predefined categories. After that, the data were analyzed using the following techniques: c...

  20. Global Proteome Analysis of Leptospira interrogans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comparative global proteome analyses were performed on Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni grown under conventional in vitro conditions and those mimicking in vivo conditions (iron limitation and serum presence). Proteomic analyses were conducted using iTRAQ and LC-ESI-tandem mass spectrometr...

  1. Corporate Social Responsibility: A Global Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mikalsen, Maiken Foss

    2014-01-01

    The topic of the thesis is development of corporate social responsibility in a global context, and examines and compares the practice of CSR in different countries around the world. Furthermore, the question of whether or not CSR should be regulated by law is discussed.

  2. Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI XiangDong; PENG ChangHui; TIAN DaLun; SUN JianFeng

    2007-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from individual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodologies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of disturbances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthesis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments' decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.

  3. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways of...... reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  4. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  5. Creation of a high spatiotemporal resolution global database of continuous mangrove forest cover for the 21st Century (CGMFC-21)

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton , Stuart; Casey, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this research is to provide high resolution local, regional, national and global estimates of annual mangrove forest area from 2000 through to 2012. To achieve this we synthesize the Global Forest Change database, the Terrestrial Ecosystems of the World database, and the Mangrove Forests of the World database to extract mangrove forest cover at high spatial and temporal resolutions. We then use the new database to monitor mangrove cover at the global, national and protected area s...

  6. X-Ray Fluorescence Analysis of XII–XIV Century Italian Gold Coins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Baldassarri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An extensive analytical study has been performed on a large number of gold coins (Norman-Swabian Augustale and Tarì, Grosso of Lucca, Florin of Florence minted in Italy from the end of XII century to XIV century. The X-ray fluorescence (XRF technique was used for verifying the composition of the coins. XRF is a nondestructive technique particularly suited for in situ quantitative analysis of gold and minor elements in the precious alloy. The Florins turned out to have a gold content very close to 24 carats (pure gold although in a couple of cases we observed relatively high concentrations of iron (around 2% or lead (around 1%. The Grosso of Lucca has a similar composition, with a measured gold content around 97% due to a higher silver percentage (about 2%, with respect to the average Florin. The Augustali analyzed showed, on average, a gold content around 89%. The average gold content of the Tarì analysed is around 72%, with a relatively large variability. The analysis revealed the use of native gold for the coinage of the Florins, excluding the possibility of recycling gold coming from other sources. On the other hand, the variability observed in the compositions of the Tarì and Augustali could suggest the reuse of Islamic and North African gold. The study could shed some light on the sudden diffusion of gold coins in Italy around the first half of XIII century, allowing hypotheses on the provenience of the gold used for a coinage that dominated the economic trades from then on.

  7. Biological Sciences for the 21st Century: Meeting the Challenges of Sustainable Development in an Era of Global Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joel Cracraft; Richard O' Grady

    2007-05-12

    The symposium was held 10-12 May, 2007 at the Capitol Hilton Hotel in Washington, D. C. The 30 talks explored how some of today's key biological research developments (such as biocomplexity and complex systems analysis, bioinformatics and computational biology, the expansion of molecular and genomics research, and the emergence of other comprehensive or system wide analyses, such as proteomics) contribute to sustainability science. The symposium therefore emphasized the challenges facing agriculture, human health, sustainable energy, and the maintenance of ecosystems and their services, so as to provide a focus and a suite of examples of the enormous potential contributions arising from these new developments in the biological sciences. This symposium was the first to provide a venue for exploring how the ongoing advances in the biological sciences together with new approaches for improving knowledge integration and institutional science capacity address key global challenges to sustainability. The speakers presented new research findings, and identified new approaches and needs in biological research that can be expected to have substantial impacts on sustainability science.

  8. A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Kokic

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available December 2013 was the 346th consecutive month where global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th century monthly average, with February 1985 the last time mean temperature fell below this value. Even given these and other extraordinary statistics, public acceptance of human induced climate change and confidence in the supporting science has declined since 2007. The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are part of natural systems fluctuations remains a major stumbling block to effective adaptation action and risk management. Previous approaches to attribute change include qualitative expert-assessment approaches such as used in IPCC reports and use of ‘fingerprinting’ methods based on global climate models. Here we develop an alternative approach which provides a rigorous probabilistic statistical assessment of the link between observed climate changes and human activities in a way that can inform formal climate risk assessment. We construct and validate a time series model of anomalous global temperatures to June 2010, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, as well as other causal factors including solar radiation, volcanic forcing and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. When the effect of GHGs is removed, bootstrap simulation of the model reveals that there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months (our analysis extends to June 2010 with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average. We also show that one would expect a far greater number of short periods of falling global temperatures (as observed since 1998 if climate change was not occurring. This approach to assessing probabilities of human influence on global temperature could be transferred to other climate variables and extremes allowing enhanced formal risk assessment of climate change.

  9. China's food economy in the early 21st Century; Development of China's food economy and its impact on global trade and on the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, van F.W.; Huang, J.

    2004-01-01

    Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assesment of impacts o

  10. Global analysis of the protection status of the world's forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Christine B.; Burgess, Neil David; Coad, Lauren;

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information...... on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39...... million km2. Of this, 7.7% fell within protected areas under IUCN management categories I-IV. With the inclusion of IUCN categories V and VI, the level of global forest protection increased to 13.5%. Percentage forest protection (IUCN I-IV) varied greatly between realms from 5.5% (Palearctic) to 13...

  11. Response of the global water availability and use model WaterGAP to different climatic forcings and human impacts within the late 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller Schmied, Hannes; Eisner, Stephanie; Portmann, Felix T.; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Döll, Petra

    2015-04-01

    Global-scale hydrological modeling faces multiple sources of uncertainty resulting from e.g. input data, model structure and model parameters, and it is of particular interest to investigate the sensitivity of a model to these influences. In the last years, a number of climate forcing data sets were developed for the global modelling community, and variable fields were found to differ significantly between the data-sets in certain regions. On the other side, human activity has a significant impact on the global hydrological cycle, e.g. through the construction of dams and the abstraction of water for irrigation purposes. In a global-scale hydrological modelling approach, human impact can be represented in various ways. It can be neglected (i.e. naturalized conditions without human impacts on river flow are simulated), kept at a constant level (e.g. present day conditions), or it can be simulated time-variant hence mimicking historical development of reservoirs and irrigation demand. Both uncertainties (forcing data, human impact) are influencing the response (i.e. output) of a water model, and it is assumed that the sensitivity of model outputs increases when combining the uncertainties of both input data. In this study we applied the WaterGAP global water availability and use model for 12 simulation setups resulting from four climate forcings (PGMFD v.2 (Princeton), GSWP3 (Global Soil Wetness Project 3), WATCH (WATCH Forcing Data, WFD), WATCH+WFD/ERAInterim) and three settings for human impact (naturalized, constant human impacts, time-varying human impacts). We assess the modeled water balance components for the late 20th century and evaluate the relative response to climate forcing as compared to human impact. Results are presented for selected large river basins as well as for the global scale.

  12. Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

  13. Global sensitivity analysis of ordinary differential equations

    OpenAIRE

    Weiße, Andrea Yeong

    2010-01-01

    Gewöhnliche Differentialgleichungen nehmen eine essentielle Stellung in der mathematischen Modellierung ein. Als Voraussetzung für zuverlässige Resultate muss sowohl in der Modellbildung als auch in der Analyse des Modells der Einfluss von Unsicherheit und/oder Variabilität in den Eingabedaten berücksichtigt werden. Mit Hilfe von Sensitivitätsanalyse wird untersucht, wie sich Unsicherheit und Variabilität durch die Modelldynamik ausbreiten und sich somit auf die Ausgabedaten auswirken. Global...

  14. Global Gene Expression Analysis for the Assessment of Nanobiomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanagata, Nobutaka

    2015-01-01

    Using global gene expression analysis, the effects of biomaterials and nanomaterials can be analyzed at the genetic level. Even though information obtained from global gene expression analysis can be useful for the evaluation and design of biomaterials and nanomaterials, its use for these purposes is not widespread. This is due to the difficulties involved in data analysis. Because the expression data of about 20,000 genes can be obtained at once with global gene expression analysis, the data must be analyzed using bioinformatics. A method of bioinformatic analysis called gene ontology can estimate the kinds of changes on cell functions caused by genes whose expression level is changed by biomaterials and nanomaterials. Also, by applying a statistical analysis technique called hierarchical clustering to global gene expression data between a variety of biomaterials, the effects of the properties of materials on cell functions can be estimated. In this chapter, these theories of analysis and examples of applications to nanomaterials and biomaterials are described. Furthermore, global microRNA analysis, a method that has gained attention in recent years, and its application to nanomaterials are introduced. PMID:26201278

  15. Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen; Sokolov, Andrei; Kicklighter, David; Melillo, Jerry

    2012-03-01

    This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45(o)N and polewards) for the period 1900-2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of

  16. A comparative analysis of international frameworks for 21st century competences: implications for national curriculum policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voogt, Joke; Pareja Roblin, Natalie

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites

  17. Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing

    OpenAIRE

    Trapp, Robert J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Brooks, Harold E.; Baldwin, Michael E.; Robinson, Eric D.; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2007-01-01

    Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteoro...

  18. Comprehensive Security Framework for Global Threats Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronique Legrand

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Cyber criminality activities are changing and becoming more and more professional. With the growth of financial flows through the Internet and the Information System (IS, new kinds of thread arise involving complex scenarios spread within multiple IS components. The IS information modeling and Behavioral Analysis are becoming new solutions to normalize the IS information and counter these new threads. This paper presents a framework which details the principal and necessary steps for monitoring an IS. We present the architecture of the framework, i.e. an ontology of activities carried out within an IS to model security information and User Behavioral analysis. The results of the performed experiments on real data show that the modeling is effective to reduce the amount of events by 91%. The User Behavioral Analysis on uniform modeled data is also effective, detecting more than 80% of legitimate actions of attack scenarios.

  19. Comprehensive Security Framework for Global Threads Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Saraydaryan, Jacques; Ubeda, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    Cyber criminality activities are changing and becoming more and more professional. With the growth of financial flows through the Internet and the Information System (IS), new kinds of thread arise involving complex scenarios spread within multiple IS components. The IS information modeling and Behavioral Analysis are becoming new solutions to normalize the IS information and counter these new threads. This paper presents a framework which details the principal and necessary steps for monitoring an IS. We present the architecture of the framework, i.e. an ontology of activities carried out within an IS to model security information and User Behavioral analysis. The results of the performed experiments on real data show that the modeling is effective to reduce the amount of events by 91%. The User Behavioral Analysis on uniform modeled data is also effective, detecting more than 80% of legitimate actions of attack scenarios.

  20. Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Vodenska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the daily returns of stock market indices and currencies of 56 countries over the period of 2002–2012. We build a network model consisting of two layers, one being the stock market indices and the other the foreign exchange markets. Synchronous and lagged correlations are used as measures of connectivity and causality among different parts of the global economic system for two different time intervals: non-crisis (2002–2006 and crisis (2007–2012 periods. We study community formations within the network to understand the influences and vulnerabilities of specific countries or groups of countries. We observe different behavior of the cross correlations and communities for crisis vs. non-crisis periods. For example, the overall correlation of stock markets increases during crisis while the overall correlation in the foreign exchange market and the correlation between stock and foreign exchange markets decrease, which leads to different community structures. We observe that the euro, while being central during the relatively calm period, loses its dominant role during crisis. Furthermore we discover that the troubled Eurozone countries, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, form their own cluster during the crisis period.

  1. Handheld XRF analysis of a 16th century Mexican Feather Headdress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 16th century feather headdress in the Weltmuseum Wien (WMW), an affiliated institution of the Kunsthistorisches Museum (KHM) in Vienna, is the most renowned of the few remaining pre-Columbian “Arte Plumaria” artefacts, which were made by feather artisans (Amantecas) using traditional techniques in the territory of present day Mexico. The recorded history of the headdress begins in 1596, when it is first mentioned in the estate inventory of the art collection of Archduke Ferdinand II of Tyrol at Ambras Castle. Due to its age, the variety of materials used, its history and former restoration treatments, the artefact is today one of the most sensitive and demanding care objects of the museum. Despite the object’s long history, very little documentation on past interventions exists. From 2010-2012, a binational research project between Mexico (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia) and Austria (Weltmuseum Wien) performed a systematic investigation focused on the identification of manufacturing techniques and the various materials, the old restoration measures and its conservation. Handheld x-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometers are extremely useful for the study of art works in museum collections. The possibility of bringing the instrument to inspect the objects on-site facilitates the study of artefacts that cannot be moved either due to their extreme fragility or due to their large size and/or weight. In addition, non-destructive analysis constitutes a preferred alternative to invasive sampling techniques, which are usually not allowed in the study of unique or extremely valuable objects. The aim of the XRF analysis was twofold: to investigate the possible presence of inorganic toxic elements that could be associated to the use of pesticides in past conservation interventions and; to characterize the chemical composition of the authentic gold and the gilded brass ornaments, which were added in the 19th century. The results of the XRF analytical

  2. From Local to Global Analysis of Music Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Ligges, Uwe; Weihs, Claus

    2004-01-01

    Local and more and more global musical structure is analyzed from audio time series by time-series-event analysis with the aim of automatic sheet music production and comparison of singers. Note events are determined and classified based on local spectra, and rules of bar events are identified based on accentuation events related to local energy. In order to compare the performances of different singers global summary measures are defined characterizing the overall performance.

  3. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute's education and public outreach program: Working toward a global 21st century space exploration society

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeish, Marlene Y.; Thomson, William A.; Moreno, Nancy P.

    2011-05-01

    Space Exploration educators worldwide are confronting challenges and embracing opportunities to prepare students for the global 21st century workforce. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), established in 1997 through a NASA competition, is a 12-university consortium dedicated to space life science research and education. NSBRI's Education and Public Outreach Program (EPOP) is advancing the Institute's mission by responding to global educational challenges through activities that: provide teacher professional development; develop curricula that teach students to communicate with their peers across the globe; provide women and minority US populations with greater access to, and awareness of science careers; and promote international science education partnerships. A recent National Research Council (NRC) Space Studies Board Report, America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Program with National Needs, acknowledges that "a capable workforce for the 21st century is a key strategic objective for the US space program… (and that) US problems requiring best efforts to understand and resolve…are global in nature and must be addressed through mutual worldwide action". [1] This sentiment has gained new momentum through a recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) report, which recommends that the life of the International Space Station be extended beyond the planned 2016 termination. [2] The two principles of globalization and ISS utility have elevated NSBRI EPOP efforts to design and disseminate science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) educational materials that prepare students for full participation in a globalized, high technology society; promote and provide teacher professional development; create research opportunities for women and underserved populations; and build international educational partnerships. This paper describes select EPOP projects and makes the case for using innovative, emerging information

  4. Global Citizenship Education within a Context of Accountability and 21st Century Skills: The Case of Olympus High School

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiCicco, Marzia Cozzolino

    2016-01-01

    This article addresses the present gap in empirical research on the possibilities and challenges of global citizenship education in U.S. public schools by presenting findings from a five-year, ethnographic case study. The setting for this study is Olympus High School, a small, suburban public high school in Pennsylvania. Beginning in the 2009-2010…

  5. Global processing takes time: A meta-analysis on local-global visual processing in ASD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Hallen, Ruth; Evers, Kris; Brewaeys, Katrien; Van den Noortgate, Wim; Wagemans, Johan

    2015-05-01

    What does an individual with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) perceive first: the forest or the trees? In spite of 30 years of research and influential theories like the weak central coherence (WCC) theory and the enhanced perceptual functioning (EPF) account, the interplay of local and global visual processing in ASD remains only partly understood. Research findings vary in indicating a local processing bias or a global processing deficit, and often contradict each other. We have applied a formal meta-analytic approach and combined 56 articles that tested about 1,000 ASD participants and used a wide range of stimuli and tasks to investigate local and global visual processing in ASD. Overall, results show no enhanced local visual processing nor a deficit in global visual processing. Detailed analysis reveals a difference in the temporal pattern of the local-global balance, that is, slow global processing in individuals with ASD. Whereas task-dependent interaction effects are obtained, gender, age, and IQ of either participant groups seem to have no direct influence on performance. Based on the overview of the literature, suggestions are made for future research. PMID:25420221

  6. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Higher education system occupies a special place in the policy of each nation. Regardless of geographical location, socio-economic or cultural differences, the need to improve the education offered for population by facilitating access to higher education becomes more and more important. Providing a suitable framework for the personal development of each student is expensive and involves high amounts of money. From the analyses carried out we couldn\\'t identify the substantial differences between the way it is structured and organized education system worldwide. However, we were able to identify a number of common elements that create a global University System. The need to invest in human resources through structural reforms in each country is present, and therefore a higher indention to pay greater attention to the development of the higher education system. In our work we decided to analyze education systems in countries like United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (GB, China (CHN, Germany (DE, France (FR, Russian Federation (RU, Japan (JPN average values recorded for EU-27 and last but not least Romania (RO. Although the investment in the University system is hard to quantify, it is unanimously acknowledged that a country can achieve a competitive advantage in international relations through a very well prepared and trained personnel. The countries reviewed in this paper have different policies when it comes to financial support of the University System. If Germany and France have decided to get involved directly in supporting the system by allocating the necessary funds from the State budget, another European country, the United Kingdom, decided to apply a policy diametrically opposite, similar to that existing in the USA and cover in a lesser degree the needs of universities in Government funds. Regardless of the policy adopted the results are intended to be the same: facilitating access to university education, a high quality of

  7. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Corzo Perez

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river basin models. This paper presents two methodologies that extend the tools to analyze spatio-temporal drought development and characteristics using large scale gridded time series of hydrometeorological data. The methodologies are classified as non-contiguous and contiguous drought area analyses (i.e. NCDA and CDA. The NCDA presents time series of percentages of areas in drought at the global scale and for pre-defined regions of known hydroclimatology. The CDA is introduced as a complementary method that generates information on the spatial coherence of drought events at the global scale. Spatial drought events are found through CDA by clustering patterns (contiguous areas. In this study the global hydrological model WaterGAP was used to illustrate the methodology development. Global gridded time series of subsurface runoff (resolution 0.5° simulated with the WaterGAP model from land points were used. The NCDA and CDA were developed to identify drought events in runoff. The percentages of area in drought calculated with both methods show complementary information on the spatial and temporal events for the last decades of the 20th century. The NCDA provides relevant information on the average number of droughts, duration and severity (deficit volume for pre-defined regions (globe, 2 selected hydroclimatic regions. Additionally, the CDA provides information on the number of spatially linked areas in drought, maximum spatial event and their geographic location on the globe. Some results capture the overall spatio-temporal drought extremes over the last decades of the 20th century. Events like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in South America and

  8. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, Steve; Waliser, Duane; Schweiger, Axel; Francis, Jennifer

    2009-12-01

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases.

  9. Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vavrus, Steve [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States); Waliser, Duane [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 183-501, Water and Carbon Cycles Group, Pasadena, CA (United States); Schweiger, Axel [University of Washington, Polar Science Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Francis, Jennifer [Rutgers University, J. J. Howard Marine Laboratory, Highlands, NJ (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer-autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter-spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases. (orig.)

  10. A Quarter Century of The Analysis of Verbal Behavior: An Analysis of Impact

    OpenAIRE

    Petursdottir, Anna Ingeborg; Peterson, Sean P.; Peters, Anja C

    2009-01-01

    The Analysis of Verbal Behavior (TAVB) has been published since 1982, and during this time, interest in verbal behavior research appears to have increased substantially within behavior analysis. The purpose of the present analysis was to assess the influence of TAVB on the field by (a) counting citations of TAVB articles in the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior (JEAB) and the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) from 1983 through 2007, (b) examining which other journals ...

  11. A generalized preimage theorem in global analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA; Jipu

    2001-01-01

    [1]Ma Jipu, (1.2) inverses of operators between Banach spaces and conjugacy theorem, Chinese Annals of Math., B, 1999, 20(1): 57.[2]Ma Jipu, Rank theorem of operators between Banach spaces, Science in China, Ser. A, 2000, 43(1): 1.[3]Ma Jipu, Local conjugacy theorem, rank theorems in advenced calculus and a generalized principle constructing Banach manifolds, Science in China, Ser. A, 2000, 43(12): 1233.[4]Zeidler, A. E., Nonlinear Function Analysis and Its Applications, IV: Applications to Mathematical Physics, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1988.

  12. CHINA'S FOOD ECONOMY IN THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY; DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S FOOD ECONOMY AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE AND ON THE EU

    OpenAIRE

    Tongeren, van, J.; Huang, J

    2004-01-01

    Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assessment of impacts of WTO accession and phasing out of multi fiber agreement. Simulation of possible impacts of the WTO-Doha round. Simulation of impacts of Chinese 'green box' policies on Chinese food economy. Simul...

  13. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  14. Changes in precipitation intensity over East Asia during the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by a global atmospheric model with a 60 km grid size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusunoki, Shoji; Mizuta, Ryo

    2013-10-01

    We conducted three-member ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model with a high horizontal resolution of a 60 km grid size for the period 1872-2099 (228 years). Between 1872 and 2005, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST), while between 2006 and 2099, the boundary SST data were estimated using the multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 models and assuming A1B emission scenario. Annual mean precipitation (PAVE), the Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), and the maximum 5 day precipitation total (R5d) averaged over East Asia increase almost monotonically through the 21st century. The statistically significant area of precipitation intensity increase is larger for 2080-2099 than for 2046-2065. In particular, intense rainfall will increase over northern and southern China during 2080-2099. The conversion rate from water vapor to precipitation per 1°C rise in surface air temperature for SDII and R5D is much larger than that for PAVE during the 21st century. This suggests that extreme rainfall events will occur more frequently than moderate rainfall events even if the amount of temperature rise is same. Future changes in the horizontal transport of water vapor also lead to more intense precipitation over East Asia. In particular, the increase in clockwise water vapor transport due to intensification of the subtropical high contributes to increased intense precipitation over southern China.

  15. century drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-11-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  16. Drivers of Wetland Conversion: a Global Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Peter H Verburg; Vermaat, Jan E.; Janse, Jan H.

    2013-01-01

    Meta-analysis of case studies has become an important tool for synthesizing case study findings in land change. Meta-analyses of deforestation, urbanization, desertification and change in shifting cultivation systems have been published. This present study adds to this literature, with an analysis of the proximate causes and underlying forces of wetland conversion at a global scale using two complementary approaches of systematic review. Firstly, a meta-analysis of 105 case-study papers descr...

  17. Analysis of mid-twentieth century rainfall trends and variability over southwestern Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsubuga, F. N. W.; Olwoch, J. M.; Rautenbach, C. J. deW.; Botai, O. J.

    2014-01-01

    A methodology has been applied to investigate the spatial variability and trends existent in a mid-twentieth century climatic time series (for the period 1943-1977) recorded by 58 climatic stations in the Albert-Victoria water management area in Uganda. Data were subjected to quality checks before further processing. In the present work, temporal trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Heterogeneity of monthly rainfall was investigated using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). Results revealed that 53 % of stations have positive trends where 25 % are statistically significant and 45 % of stations have negative trends with 23 % being statistically significant. Very strong trends at 99 % significance level were revealed at 12 stations. Positive trends in January, February, and November at 40 stations were observed. The highest rainfall was recorded in April, while January, June, and July had the lowest rainfall. Spatial analysis results showed that stations close to Lake Victoria recorded high amounts of rainfall. Average annual coefficient of variability was 19 %, signifying low variability. Rainfall distribution is bimodal with maximums experienced in March-April-May and September-October-November seasons of the year. Analysis also revealed that PCI values showed a moderate to seasonal rainfall distribution. Spectral analysis of the time components reveals the existence of a major period around 3, 6, and 10 years. The 6- and 10-year period is a characteristic of September-October-November, March-April-May, and annual time series.

  18. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  19. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  20. Drought at the global scale in the 2nd part of the 20th century (1963-2001)

    OpenAIRE

    Huijgevoort, van, M.H.J.; Hazenberg, P.; Lanen, Van, H.A.J.; N. Bertrand; Clark, D. (David); Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; T. Stacke; Voss, F

    2011-01-01

    The large impacts of drought on society, economy and environment urge for a thorough investigation. A good knowledge of past drought events is important for both understanding of the processes causing drought, as well as to provide reliability assessments for drought projections for the future. Preferably, the investigation of historic drought events should rely on observations. Unfortunately, for a global scale these detailed observations are often not available. Therefore, the outcome of gl...

  1. Drought at the global scale for the 2nd part of the 20th Century (1963-2001)

    OpenAIRE

    Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Hazenberg, Pieter; van Lanen, Henny; Bertrand, Nathalie; Clark, Douglas; Folwell, Sonja; Gomes, Sandra; Gosling, Simon N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Heinke, Jens; Koirala, Sujan; Stacke, Tobias; Voβ, Frank

    2011-01-01

    The large impacts of drought on society, economy and environment urge for a thorough investigation. A good knowledge of past drought events is important for both understanding of the processes causing drought, as well as to provide reliability assessments for drought projections for the future. Preferably, the investigation of historic drought events should rely on observations. Unfortunately, for a global scale these detailed observations are often not available. Therefore, th...

  2. Service-learning 2.0 for the 21st century: Towards a holistic model for global social positive change

    OpenAIRE

    Karakas, Fahri; Kavas, Mustafa

    2009-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce service-learning 2.0 model based on four new paradigms in the global business landscape: connectivity, creativity, community, and complexity. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews four paradigm shifts and their effects on service-learning practices and methodology: wikinomics and mass collaboration, collective intelligence and open innovation, appreciative inquiry and positive organizational scholarship (POS), and self-organiz...

  3. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, M; Yillia, P.; C. Ringler; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. Howevr, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for unstainable...

  4. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS initiative and its approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wada

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  5. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  6. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Wiberg, D.

    2015-08-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity condition already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS) coordinates its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  7. Economic development in rural Wisconsin: developing a 21st century response to compete in today’s global marketplace

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Kuehl

    2012-01-01

    In October 2011, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Community Development and Policy Studies division co-sponsored a two-day conference that explored and discussed policies that speed, strengthen, and enhance economic development in Wisconsin’s rural areas to increase their competitiveness in today’s global economy. This article summarizes key points from presentations and discussions at the symposium. ; Over 150 participants, representing community banks in the Seventh Federal Reserve Dis...

  8. Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1993-01-01

    A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

  9. Global approach of emergency response, reflection analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The emergency response management approach must be dealt with adequately within company strategy, since a badly managed emergency situation can adversely affect a company, not only in terms of asset, but also in terms of the negative impact on its credibility, profitability and image. Thereby, it can be said that there are three main supports to manage the response in an emergency situation. a) Diagnosis b) Prognosis. c) Communications. To reach these capabilities it is necessary a co-ordination of different actions at the following levels. i. Facility Operation implies Local level. ii. Facility Property implies National level iii. Local Authority implies Local level iv. National Authority implies National level Taking into account all the last, these following functions must be covered: a) Management: incorporating communication, diagnosis and prognosis areas. b) Decision: incorporating communication and information means. c) Services: in order to facilitate the decision, as well as the execution of this decision. d) Analysis: in order to facilitate the situations that make easier to decide. e) Documentation: to seek the information for the analysts and decision makers. (Author)

  10. For Nature: Deep Greening World-Systems Analysis for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sing S. Chew

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available From its conception the world-systems perspective has been preoccupied with the study of long term global transformations (see for ex., Frank 1968, 1979; Wallerstein 1974; Amin 1974; Wolf, 1982; Chase-Dunn 1989; Chase-Dunn and Hall 1992; Kaplan 1978.2. To this extent, the various structural relationships, trends, and cycles of the world system have been identified to explain the processes of global transformation. The varied attempts to pinpoint and analyze these relations, trends, and cycles have been within the context of connections between humans, classes, status groups, industries, regions, and states in the world economy. From an ecological point of view (ontologically and epistemologically, such a manner of understanding change is quite anthropocentric, as global transformation necessitates a changing relationship with Nature. In an era of increasing global concern and awareness of the finite nature of natural resources and the growing realization of the contemporary losses in plant and animal species and the continued susceptibility of the human species to climatological changes and diseases despite various scientific and technological advances, we need to consider that besides social relations and structures, the basis of human reproduction includes our relationships with the non-human world (ecology. World-systems /world system analyses need to move beyond deciphering the processes of global change only through the social (anthropocentric dimension of the relations underlining these processes. Keeping to just the social relations/structures of the reproduction of the system limits the range of explanations we can provide for global transformation, and also restricts the dimensions whereby the basis for these changes can be explored. This paper is an attempt to introduce the other basic dimension (our relations with Nature into the overall equation of world-systems/world system analyses for our understanding of global change. Ultimately

  11. Explaining the spread of CMIP5 climate models in global-mean thermosteric sea level rise over the 20th and 21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melet, Angelique; Meyssignac, Benoit; Salas y Melia, David

    2015-04-01

    The ocean stores more than 90% of the energy excess associated with anthropogenic climate warming. The resulting warming and thermal expansion of the ocean is a leading contributor to sea level rise. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise therefore depends on the ability of climate models to reproduce ocean warming and induced global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) over the 20th century. This study aims at explaining and trying to reduce the spread of GMTSL across climate models of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 20th and 21st centuries. We first show that the GMTSL rise computed from climate models is approximately proportional to the radiative forcing. The constant of proportionality mostly depends on the climate feedback parameter and the ocean heat uptake efficiency. From that linear relationship, we show that the spread in the net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux (N) explains most of the spread in projections of the GMTSL. The inter-model spread of N is itself mostly explained by the spread in the radiative forcing changes while the spread in climate feedback parameter and ocean heat uptake efficiency play a smaller role. We then compare GMTSL from climate models to observational estimates over the 1961-2005 period. Although the model-ensemble mean is within the uncertainty of observations, a significant number of models consistently overestimate or underestimate the observed GMTSL rise. The contribution of the deep ocean (below 700 m depth) to GMTSL is largely spread among climate models (33 ± 28% over 1900-2005). Selecting the sub-ensemble of models that conserve the energy in the climate system and are within the observational estimates of GMTSL reduces that spread and leads to a contribution of 35 ± 10%. The uncertainty in projected GMTSL in 2100 can also be reduced with a selection of climate models based on the comparison of the climate feedback parameters, ocean heat uptake efficiencies and 20th

  12. PIXE analysis of jewels from an Achaemenid tomb (IVth century BC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querré, G.; Bouquillon, A.; Calligaro, T.; Dubus, M.; Salomon, J.

    1996-04-01

    Ion beam analysis has seldom been applied to gemmology. The privileged location of the Laboratoire de recherche des musées de France, close to some of the most prestigious art collections, along with the implementation of the AGLAE IBA facility, have allowed us to initiate several gemmological research programs since 1991. The latest of these deals with a series of Achaemenid jewels (IVth century BC) exhibited in the Louvre museum. The aim of the present research is three-fold: determination of the coloured materials inlayed in gold, composition of the golden alloys and the inlay fixation technique. Analyses have been carried out by PIXE using an external proton beam under conditions set from test experiments on reference gemstones in order to optimise the experimental parameters. Quantitative chemical analysis of both major and trace elements has allowed us to distinguish between 15 types of fine or ornamental stones as well as man-made materials and to identify a peculiar cement technique. We will describe the analytical procedure in detail, then present the main results obtained on coloured inlays and cement and underline a potential drawback of the technique, i.e. a transient colour variation of the target under the impact of the beam, which needs further investigation.

  13. Natural and Anthropogenic Controls over Global Terrestrial N2O Emission Growth at a Century-Long Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Kamaljit, K.; Zhang, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 20% relative to pre-industrial level. It has attracted growing attention since N2O has long life time and radiative forcing 265 times higher than CO2 at 100-year time horizon. Global N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystem is among the most important contributors to the increase of atmospheric N2O. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, less intensive studies have been performed in assessing the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial N2O emission and attributing its changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances across the globe. Here we integrated gridded time-series data of climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) to a process-based land ecosystem model, DLEM, for answering the above questions. During 1900-2010, the inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes have been examined. Through this, we distinguished and quantified the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities to N2O emission growth at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. The impacts of climate variability, and increasing nitrogen input, particularly nitrogen fertilizer use along with enhanced food production, have been paid special attention. Hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission are identified in this study. It provides clue for scientific community and policy makers to develop potential management strategies for mitigating atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  14. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  15. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; Dunne, J.P.; John, J.(Boston University, Boston, USA)

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

  16. Global Optimization and Broadband Analysis Software for Interstellar Chemistry (GOBASIC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Mary L.; Zou, Luyao; Sanders, James L.; Widicus Weaver, Susanna L.

    2016-01-01

    Context. Broadband receivers that operate at millimeter and submillimeter frequencies necessitate the development of new tools for spectral analysis and interpretation. Simultaneous, global, multimolecule, multicomponent analysis is necessary to accurately determine the physical and chemical conditions from line-rich spectra that arise from sources like hot cores. Aims: We aim to provide a robust and efficient automated analysis program to meet the challenges presented with the large spectral datasets produced by radio telescopes. Methods: We have written a program in the MATLAB numerical computing environment for simultaneous global analysis of broadband line surveys. The Global Optimization and Broadband Analysis Software for Interstellar Chemistry (GOBASIC) program uses the simplifying assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) for spectral analysis to determine molecular column density, temperature, and velocity information. Results: GOBASIC achieves simultaneous, multimolecule, multicomponent fitting for broadband spectra. The number of components that can be analyzed at once is only limited by the available computational resources. Analysis of subsequent sets of molecules or components is performed iteratively while taking the previous fits into account. All features of a given molecule across the entire window are fitted at once, which is preferable to the rotation diagram approach because global analysis is less sensitive to blended features and noise features in the spectra. In addition, the fitting method used in GOBASIC is insensitive to the initial conditions chosen, the fitting is automated, and fitting can be performed in a parallel computing environment. These features make GOBASIC a valuable improvement over previously available LTE analysis methods. A copy of the sofware is available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/585/A23

  17. Globalization and International Student Mobility: A Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This article analyzes changes to the network of international student mobility in higher education over a 10-year period (1999-2008). International student flows have increased rapidly, exceeding 3 million in 2009, and extensive data on mobility provide unique insight into global educational processes. The analysis is informed by three theoretical…

  18. Error Analysis of Determining Airplane Location by Global Positioning System

    OpenAIRE

    Hajiyev, Chingiz; Burat, Alper

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies the error analysis of determining airplane location by global positioning system (GPS) using statistical testing method. The Newton Rhapson method positions the airplane at the intersection point of four spheres. Absolute errors, relative errors and standard deviation have been calculated The results show that the positioning error of the airplane varies with the coordinates of GPS satellite and the airplane.

  19. Global Analysis of Horizontal Gene Transfer in Fusarium verticillioides

    Science.gov (United States)

    The co-occurrence of microbes within plants and other specialized niches may facilitate horizontal gene transfer (HGT) affecting host-pathogen interactions. We recently identified fungal-to-fungal HGTs involving metabolic gene clusters. For a global analysis of HGTs in the maize pathogen Fusarium ve...

  20. Analysis of global and hemispheric temperature records and prognosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey

    2015-06-01

    Climate changes are connected to long term variations of global and hemispheric temperatures, which are important for the work out of socio-political strategy for the near future. In the paper the annual temperature time series are modeled by linear multiple regression to identify important climate forcings including external climate factors such as atmospheric CO2 content, volcanic emissions, and the total solar irradiation as well as internal factors such as El Niño-Southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Adjusted temperatures were determined by removal of all significant influences except CO2. The adjusted temperatures follow a linear dependence toward the logarithm of the CO2 content, and the coefficient of determination is about 0.91. The evolution of the adjusted temperatures suggests that the warming due to CO2 from the beginning of the studied here time interval in 1900 has never stopped and is going on up to now. The global warming rate deduced from the adjusted temperatures since 1980 is about 0.14 ± 0.02 °C/decade. The warming rate reported in the IPCC assessment report 4 based on observed global surface temperature set is about 20% higher, due to the warming by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation additional to the anthropogenic warming. The predicted temperature evolution based on long time changes of CO2 and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index shows that the Northern Hemispheric temperatures are modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation influence and will not change significantly to about 2040, after that they will increase speedily, just like during the last decades of the past century. The temperatures of the Southern Hemisphere will increase almost linearly and don't show significant periodic changes due to Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The concrete warming rates of course are strongly depending on the future atmospheric CO2 content.

  1. Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

    2016-03-01

    Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

  2. Global trend analysis of the MODIS drought severity index

    OpenAIRE

    Orvos, P. I.; Homonnai, V.; Várai, A.; Bozóki, Z.; Jánosi, I. M.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, Mu et al. (2013) have compiled an open access data base of a remotely sensed global drought severity index (DSI) based on MODIS satellite measurements covering a continuous period of 12 years. The highest spatial resolution is 0.05° × 0.05° in the geographic band between 60° S and 80° N latitudes (more than 4.9 million locations over land). Here we present a global trend analysis of these satellite based DSI time series in order to identify geographic a...

  3. Global trend analysis of the MODIS drought severity index

    OpenAIRE

    Orvos, P. I.; Homonnai, V.; Várai, A.; Bozóki, Z.; Jánosi, I. M.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, Mu et al. (2013) compiled an open access database of a remotely sensed global drought severity index (DSI) based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite measurements covering a continuous period of 12 years. The highest spatial resolution is 0.05° × 0.05° in the geographic band between 60° S and 80° N latitudes (more than 4.9 million locations over land). Here we present a global trend analysis of these satellite-based DSI time...

  4. Training links and transmission of knowledge in 18th Century botany: a social network analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Sigrist

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This contribution develops a social network approach to the training of European botanists in the 18th century. In a period when the study of plants increasingly became an autonomous field of research, the practice of botany and related sciences mobilized a very diverse group of actors. For many of them, initiation to the science of plants was part of their medical studies. Others were trained as collaborators with an outstanding scholar in the context of a royal garden or elsewhere, sometimes also in philosophy colleges or faculties. Still others were self-taught. To the extent that biographical data were available, we made a systematic census of the masters and disciples of a set of 928 Western botanists active between 1700 and 1830. Three subsets were thus identified, each of them showing distinct characteristics and developmental patterns. The specific features of these subsets are discussed in a historical perspective, with a particular attention to the various institutional contexts which produced them. The data analysis basically shows the growing autonomy of botany with regard to medical training, as well as the increasingly national character of the dominant schools, at least in France.

  5. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135° while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar Kα X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  6. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kakuee, Omidreza, E-mail: okakuee@aeoi.org.ir [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A. [The Library, Museum and Documentation Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Parliament, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-02-15

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135 Degree-Sign while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K{sub {alpha}} X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  7. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakuee, Omidreza; Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad; Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A.

    2012-02-01

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135° while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K α X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  8. Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范玮丽

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.

  9. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  10. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL DYNAMICS IN A PAIAMETIICALLY EXCITED THIN PLATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张伟

    2001-01-01

    The global bifurcations and chaos of a simply supported rectangular thin plate with parametric excitation are analyzed. The formulas of the thin plate are derived by yon Karman type equation and Galerkin's approach. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain the averaged equations. Based on the averaged equations, the theory of the normal form is used to give the explicit expressions of the normal form associated with a double zero and a pair of pure imaginary eigenvalues by Maple program. On the basis of the normal form, a global bifurcation analysis of the parametrically excited recta ngular thin plate is given by the global perturbation method developed by Kovacic and Wiggins. The chaotic motion of thin plate is also found by numerical simulation.

  11. Shanghai-based industrialization in the early 20th century: a quantitative and institutional analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Debin

    2006-01-01

    A significant but uneven spurt of industrialization started in China during the first three decades of the 20th century at a time of political instability and national disintegration. This article argues that economic growth during this period was closely associated with the rise and expansion of major treaty ports designated under the Western imperialist framework. I focus on the political institutions of a city-state adopted in early 20th century Shanghai – the rule of law, secure property ...

  12. Examination of the role of nuclear deterrence in the 21st century: a systems analysis approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martz, Joseph C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stevens, Patrice A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Branstetter, Linda [SNL; Hoover, Edward [SNL; O' Brien, Kevin [SNL; Slavin, Adam [SNL; Caswell, David [STANFORD UNIV

    2010-01-01

    Until very recently, an evaluation of US policy regarding deterrence and the role of its nuclear weapons arsenal as a deterrent has been largely absent in the public debate. With President's Obama embrace of a goal of a future world without nuclear weapons, issues of nuclear policy and deterrence have just recently risen to the forefront of policy discussions. The traditional role of US nuclear weapons-to deter the use of nuclear weapons by other states-endures, but is no longer unique nor even predominant. In an increasingly multi-polar world, the US now faces growing risks of nuclear weapons proliferation; the spread of weapons of mass destruction generally to non-state, substate and transnational actors; cyber, space, economic, environmental and resource threats along with the application of numerous other forms of 'soft power' in ways that are inimical to national security and to global stability. What concept of deterrence should the US seek to maintain in the 21st Century? That question remains fluid and central to the current debate. Recently there has been a renewed focusing of attention on the role of US nuclear weapons and a national discussion about what the underlying policy should be. In this environment, both the United States and Russia have committed to drastic reductions in their nuclear arsenals, while still maintaining forces sufficient to ensure unacceptable consequence in response to acts of aggression. Further, the declared nuclear powers have maintained that a limited nuclear arsenal continues to provide insurance against uncertain developments in a changing world. In this environment of US and Russian stockpile reductions, all declared nuclear states have reiterated the central role which nuclear weapons continue to provide for their supreme national security interests. Given this new environment and the challenges of the next several decades, how might the United States structure its policy and forces with regard to nuclear

  13. THE EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBALIZATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE INVESTMENT PROCESS

    OpenAIRE

    Mariana LUPAN

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a complex analysis of the evolution of the globalization concept, phasing of globalization, the pylons of globalization, and also the evolution of the direct foreign investments. The globalization problem it was, it is and it will be an interest subject for the entire society. Thereby, the end of the XX century and the beginning of the XXI century is defined with the acceleration of the globalization process, and the flows of direct foreign investments involved by the tran...

  14. Globalização social: desafio do século XXI GLOBALIZATION SOCIAL: CHALLENGE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Carlos dos Santos

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A crítica de muitos à globalização é conseqüência dos rumos que ela está tomando. Embora a globalização seja um processo dinâmico em andamento, o seu avanço tem ocorrido de forma desequilibrada, gerando instabilidade política, econômica e social em várias regiões do planeta. O presente trabalho procura, de forma teórica, mostrar a falta da globalização social como um dos fatores que tem provocado desequilíbrio na dinâmica do processo de globalização. Pelo lado econômico, observa-se que a globalização ocorre de forma acelerada e já alcança os mais distantes pontos da face da Terra, ao passo que, pelo lado social, observa-se que a globalização está ausente em algumas regiões e, em outro tanto, ela ocorre de forma lenta e sem muito interesse. De nada vale os benefícios da globalização econômica se não existir a globalização social. Esse e o desafio do século XXI.The criticism of many of globalization is a consequence of directions it is taking. While globalization is a dynamic process in progress, its progress has occurred so unbalanced, creating politicalinstability, economic and social development in various regions of the planet. This paper demand, so theoretically, show the lack of social globalisation as one of the factors that have causedimbalance in the dynamics of the globalization process. On the economic side there is that globalization occurs so rapidly and have reached the most distant points of the face of theEarth, while the social side, there is that globalisation is absent in some regions, and in another both, it happens so slowly and without much interest. It is not worth the benefits of economicglobalization if there is the social globalisation. That and the challenge of the twenty-first century.

  15. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION: ASSESSING MODEL VALIDITY

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Keeney, Roman; Valenzuela, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a validation experiment of a global CGE trade model widely used for analysis of trade liberalization. We focus on the ability of the model to reproduce price volatility in wheat markets. The literature on model validation is reviewed with an eye towards designing an appropriate methodology for validating large scale CGE models. The validation experiment results indicate that in its current form, the GTAP-AGR model is incapable of reproducing wheat market price volatility a...

  16. Global analysis of AAC for determining polarized parton distribution functions

    CERN Document Server

    Hirai, M; Saitô, N

    2006-01-01

    We report global analysis results for polarized parton distribution functions in the nucleon. The optimum distributions are determined by using spin asymmetry data on polarized lepton scattering on proton, neutron, and deuteron. Their uncertainties are estimated by the Hessian method. As a result, polarized quark distributions are relatively well determined, whereas the polarized gluon distribution has a large uncertainty band. We find that the obtained gluon distribution is compatible with recent \\Delta g/g measurements in high-p_T hadron productions.

  17. A Comparative Analysis of Global Cropping Systems Models and Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; You, L.; Wood, S.; Wood-Sichra, U.; Wu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural practices have dramatically altered the land cover of the Earth, but the spatial extent and intensity of these practices is often difficult to catalogue. Cropland accounts for nearly 15 million km2 of the Earth's land cover - amounting to 12% of the Earth's ice-free land surface - yet information on the distribution and performance of specific crops is often available only through national or sub-national statistics. While remote sensing products offer spatially disaggregated information, those currently available on a global scale are ill-suited for many applications due to the limited separation of crop types within the area classified as cropland. Recently, however, there have been multiple independent efforts to incorporate the detailed information available from statistical surveys with supplemental spatial information to produce a spatially explicit global dataset specific to individual cropss for the year 2000. While these datasets provide analysts and decision makers with improved information on global cropping systems, the final global cropping maps differ from one another substantially. This study aims to explore and quantify systematic similarities and differences between four major global cropping systems products: the monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRAC2000) dataset, the spatial production allocation model (SPAM), the global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) dataset, and the dataset developed by Monfreda et al., 2008. The analysis explores not only the final cropping systems maps but also the interdependencies of each product, methodological differences and modeling assumptions, which will provide users with information vital for discerning between datasets in selecting a product appropriate for each intended application.

  18. Bi-global Stability Analysis of Compressible Open Cavity Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yiyang; Taira, Kunihiko; Cattafesta, Louis; Ukeiley, Lawrence

    2015-11-01

    The effect of compressibility on stability characteristics of rectangular open cavity flows is numerically examined. In our earlier work with two-dimensional direct numerical simulation of open cavity flows, we found that increasing Mach number destabilizes the flow in the subsonic regime but stabilizes the flow in the transonic regime. To further examine the compressibility effect, linear bi-global stability analysis is performed over the same range of Mach numbers to investigate the influence of three-dimensional instabilities in flows over open cavities with length-to-depth ratios of 2 and 6. We identify dominant eigenmodes for varied Mach numbers and spanwise wavelengths with respect to two-dimensional stable and unstable steady states. Over a range of spanwise wavelengths, we reveal the growth/damp rates and frequencies of the dominant global modes. Based on the insights from the present analysis, we compare our findings from global stability analysis with our companion three-dimensional flow control experiments aimed at reducing pressure fluctuation caused by cavity flow unsteadiness. This work was supported by the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant FA9550-13-1-0091).

  19. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  20. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. PMID:26365568

  1. Adult Learners and the Environment in the Last Century: An Historical Analysis of Environmental Adult Education Literature

    OpenAIRE

    Haugen, Caitlin Secrest

    2010-01-01

    Environmental adult education (EAE) combines environmental education and adult learning theory to provide meaningful educative experiences to learners with the purpose of bringing about genuine environmental change. The field is relatively new, but its body of literature is growing in the twenty-first century. This paper conducts an historical analysis of EAE literature to date. The resulting summary provides scholars and practitioners in the fields of environmental adult education, enviro...

  2. Discussion on the development of nuclear energy in the next century based on fuel-cycle analysis and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity of developing nuclear energy, sepecially studing and developing the hybrid reactors in the next century in China, has been discussed. The fuel-cycle analysis and economic assessment have been done for various systems of several types of reactors. Some conclusions have been gained. The development of nuclear energy, especially the hybrid reactors, will take an important role in developing China's national economy, and it mustn's be too late to develop hybrid reactors

  3. Transversity and Collins Fragmentation Functions: Towards a New Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Anselmino, M; D'Alesio, U; Kotzinian, A; Melis, S; Murgia, F; Prokudin, A; Türk, C

    2008-01-01

    A new, preliminary global analysis of the experimental data on azimuthal asymmetries in SIDIS from HERMES and COMPASS collaborations, and in e+e- --> h_1 h_2 X processes from the BELLE collaboration, is performed. The new data allow for a more precise determination of the Collins fragmentation function and of the transversity distribution function for $u$ and $d$ quarks, in comparison with the results of our previous analysis. Estimates for the single spin asymmetry A_UT^{\\sin(\\phi_h + \\phi_S)} at JLab and COMPASS, operating on a transversely polarized proton target, are presented.

  4. Global Analysis and Structural Performance of the Tubed Mega Frame

    OpenAIRE

    ZHANG, Han

    2014-01-01

    The Tubed Mega Frame is a new structure concept for high-rise buildings which is developed by Tyréns. In order to study the structural performance as well as the efficiency of this new concept, a global analysis of the Tubed Mega Frame structure is performed using finite element analysis software ETABS. Besides, the lateral loads that should be applied on the structure according to different codes are also studied. From the design code study for wind loads and seismic design response spectrum...

  5. Hydrological Cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio; Kriegerova, Ida; Speranza, Antonio; 10.1029/2007JD009167

    2011-01-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961-2000 and for the 2161-2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature severa...

  6. Solar Neutrinos with Magnetic Moment Rates and Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pulido, J

    2002-01-01

    A statistical analysis of the solar neutrino data is presented assuming the solar neutrino deficit to be resolved by the resonant interaction of the neutrino magnetic moment with the solar magnetic field. Four field profiles are investigated, all exhibiting a rapid increase across the bottom of the convective zone, one of them closely following the requirements from recent solar physics investigations. First a 'rates only' analysis is performed whose best fits appear to be remarkably better than all fits from oscillations. A global analysis then follows with the corresponding best fits of a comparable quality to the LMA one. Despite the fact that the resonant spin flavour precession does not predict any day/night effect, the separate SuperKamiokande day and night data are included in the analysis in order to allow for a direct comparison with oscillation scenarios. Remarkably enough, the best fit for rates and global analysis which is compatible with most astrophysical bounds on the neutrino magnetic moment i...

  7. INTERCULTURAL BUSINESS COMMUNICATION: AN ANALYSIS OF ETHNOCENTRISM IN A GLOBALIZED BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Melvin C. Washington

    2013-01-01

    Twenty-first century organizations, rather small, medium, or large are increasingly finding themselves competing in global rather than local markets. This paper explores the current literature on the increasing global influence of ethnocentrism and its affect on international business communication. It also provides a model for overcoming ethnocentrism in a multicultural business environment. The goal of the paper is to provide practitioners with a realistic approach for overcoming ethnocentr...

  8. Global trend analysis of the MODIS drought severity index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orvos, P. I.; Homonnai, V.; Várai, A.; Bozóki, Z.; Jánosi, I. M.

    2015-10-01

    Recently, Mu et al. (2013) compiled an open access database of a remotely sensed global drought severity index (DSI) based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite measurements covering a continuous period of 12 years. The highest spatial resolution is 0.05° × 0.05° in the geographic band between 60° S and 80° N latitudes (more than 4.9 million locations over land). Here we present a global trend analysis of these satellite-based DSI time series in order to identify geographic locations where either positive or negative trends are statistically significant. Our main result is that 17.34 % of land areas exhibit significant trends of drying or wetting, and these sites constitute geographically connected regions. Since a DSI value conveys local characterization at a given site, we argue that usual field significance tests cannot provide more information about the observations than the presented analysis. The relatively short period of 12 years hinders linking the trends to global climate change; however, we think that the observations might be related to slow (decadal) modes of natural climate variability or anthropogenic impacts.

  9. Global trend analysis of the MODIS drought severity index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. I. Orvos

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Mu et al. (2013 have compiled an open access data base of a remotely sensed global drought severity index (DSI based on MODIS satellite measurements covering a continuous period of 12 years. The highest spatial resolution is 0.05° × 0.05° in the geographic band between 60° S and 80° N latitudes (more than 4.9 million locations over land. Here we present a global trend analysis of these satellite based DSI time series in order to identify geographic areas where either positive or negative trends are statistically significant. Since a DSI value conveys local characterisation at a given site, we argue that usual field significance tests cannot provide more information about the observations than the presented analysis. We are fully aware of the fact that 12 years are too short for establishing any link to global climate change, however a series of severe droughts or inland inundation on a scale of a decade might have devastating consequences for affected human communities.

  10. Discussion of “An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models” by F. Battaglia and M. K. Protopapas

    OpenAIRE

    Mudelsee, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    The annual temperatures recorded for the last two centuries in fifteen european stations around the Alps are analyzed. They show a global warming whose growth rate is not however constant in time. An analysis based on linear Arima models does not provide accurate results. Thus, we propose threshold nonlinear nonstationary models based on several regimes both in time and in levels. Such models fit all series satisfactorily, allow a closer description of the temperature changes evolution, and h...

  11. Global lateral buckling analysis of idealized subsea pipelines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘润; 刘文彬; 吴新利; 闫澍旺

    2014-01-01

    In order to avoid the curing effects of paraffin on the transport process and reduce the transport difficulty, usually high temperature and high pressure are used in the transportation of oil and gas. The differences of temperature and pressure cause additional stress along the pipeline, due to the constraint of the foundation soil, the additional stress can not release freely, when the additional stress is large enough to motivate the submarine pipelines buckle. In this work, the energy method is introduced to deduce the analytical solution which is suitable for the global buckling modes of idealized subsea pipeline and analyze the relationship between the critical buckling temperature, buckling length and amplitude under different high-order global lateral buckling modes. To obtain a consistent formulation of the problem, the principles of virtual displacements and the variation calculus for variable matching points are applied. The finite element method based on elasto-plastic theory is used to simulate the lateral global buckling of the pipelines under high temperature and pressure. The factors influencing the lateral buckling of pipelines are further studied. Based upon some actual engineering projects, the finite element results are compared with the analytical ones, and then the influence of thermal stress, the section rigidity of pipeline, the soil properties and the trigging force to the high order lateral buckling are discussed. The method of applying the small trigging force on pipeline is reliable in global buckling numerical analysis. In practice, increasing the section rigidity of a pipeline is an effective measure to improve the ability to resist the global buckling.

  12. Variability of extreme rainfall over La Plata Basin and Amazon Basin in South America in model simulations of the 20th century and projections under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2011-12-01

    The two largest river basins in South America are Amazon Basin (AMB) in the tropical region and La Plata Basin (LPB) in subtropical and extratropical regions. Extreme droughts have occurred during this decade in Amazonia region which have affected the transportation, fishing activities with impacts in the local population, and also affecting the forest. Droughts or floods over LPB have impacts on agriculture, hydroelectricity power and social life. Therefore, monthly wet and dry extremes in these two regions have a profound effect on the economy and society. Observed rainfall over Amazon Basin (AMB) and La Plata Basin (LPB) is analyzed in monthly timescale using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), from 1979 to 1999. This period is taken to compare GPCP data with HADCM3 simulations (Hadley Centre) of the 20th century and to analyze reanalyses data which have the contribution of satellite information after 1979. HADCM3 projections using SRES A2 scenario is analyzed in two periods: 2000 to 2020 and 2079 to 2099 to study the extremes frequency in a near future and in a longer timescale. Extreme, severe and moderate cases are identified in the northern and southern sectors of LPB and in the western and eastern sectors of AMB. The main objective is to analyze changes in the frequency of cases, considering the global warming and the associated mechanisms. In the observations for the 20th century, the number of extreme rainy cases is higher than the number of dry cases in both sectors of LPB and AMB. The model simulates this variability in the two sectors of LPB and in the west sector of AMB. In the near future 2000 to 2020 the frequency of wet and dry extremes does not change much in LPB and in the western sector of AMB, but the wet cases increase in the eastern AMB. However, in the period of 2079 to 2099 the projections indicate increase of wet cases in LPB and increase of dry cases in AMB. The influence of large scale features related to Sea Surface Temperature

  13. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  14. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-01-01

    Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to) its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturin...

  15. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  16. Italian news coverage of radiation in the early decades of the twentieth century: A qualitative and quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candela, Andrea; Pasquarè Mariotto, Federico

    2016-02-01

    This work uses a qualitative approach coupled with a quantitative software-based methodology to examine the Italian news media coverage of radiation in the early decades of the twentieth century. We analyze 80 news stories from two of the most influential Italian newspapers from that time: La Stampa (a daily newspaper) and La Domenica del Corriere (an Italian Sunday supplement). While much of previous research on media coverage of scientific topics was generally focused on present-day news, our work revolves around the ground-breaking discovery of X-rays and radioactivity at the dawn of the last century. Our analysis aims to identify journalistic frames in the news coverage of radiation that journalists might have used to emphasize the benefits (or the risks) of the new discoveries. We also hypothesize how this kind of news coverage might have influenced public perception of technological, commercial, and public health applications of the new scientific advancements. PMID:25186561

  17. The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Richard A. Rosen; Christi Electris; Raskin, Paul D.

    2010-01-01

    The global future lies before us as a highly uncertain and contested landscape with numerous perils along the way. This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering in quantitative detail four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of e...

  18. Global point signature for shape analysis of carpal bones

    OpenAIRE

    Chaudhari, Abhijit J.; Leahy, Richard M.; Wise, Barton L.; Lane, Nancy E; Badawi, Ramsey D.; Joshi, Anand A.

    2014-01-01

    We present a method based on spectral theory for the shape analysis of carpal bones of the human wrist. We represent the cortical surface of the carpal bone in a coordinate system based on the eigensystem of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. We employ a metric—global point signature (GPS)—that exploits the scale and isometric invariance of eigenfunctions to quantify overall bone shape. We use a fast finite-element-method to compute the GPS metric. We capitalize upon the properties of GP...

  19. Generating an Arabic Calligraphy Text Blocks for Global Texture Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilal Bataineh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper objective is to improve the current method for generating an Arabic Calligraphy text blocks. We test on seven types of Arabic Calligraphy text. We apply  projection profiles and a proposed filter to discriminate each line of the Arabic Calligraphy scripts. After performing text detection, skew correction, text and line normalization subsequently, we generate Arabic Calligraphy text blocks for global texture analysis purposes. We compare our proposed filter with current method and median filter. The results show that the proposed filter  is outperformed. The proposed method can be further  improved to boost the overall performance.

  20. A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Seto, Karen C; Michail Fragkias; Burak Güneralp; Michael K Reilly

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates o...

  1. A new global analysis of deep inelastic scattering data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zomer, F.; Pascaud, C. [Laboratoire de l' Accelerateur Lineaire, IN2P3-CNRS et Universite Paris-Sud, 91 - Orsay (France); Barone, V. [Universita di Torino, (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Teorica; D.S.T.A. Universita, A. Avogadro, Alessandria (Italy)

    1999-10-01

    A new QCD analysis of Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) data is presented. All available neutrino and anti-neutrino cross-sections are reanalyzed and included in the fit, along with charged-lepton DIS and Drell-Yan data. A massive factorization scheme is used to describe the charm component of the structure functions. Next-to-leading order parton distribution functions are provided. In particular, the strange sea density is determined with a higher accuracy with respect to other global fits. (authors)

  2. Charm quark mass dependence in a global QCD analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Jun; Guzzi, Marco; Nadolsky, Pavel M.

    2013-01-01

    We study the effect of the charm quark mass in the CTEQ global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. Constraints on the $\\bar{\\rm MS}$ mass of the charm quark are examined at the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) accuracy in the S-ACOT-$\\chi$ heavy-quark factorization scheme. The value of the charm quark mass from the hadronic scattering data in the CT10 NNLO fit, including semiinclusive charm production in DIS at HERA collider, is found to agree with the world av...

  3. Indian plant germplasm on the global platter: an analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Sherry R; Tyagi, Vandana; Agrawal, Anuradha; Chakrabarty, Shyamal K; Tyagi, Rishi K

    2015-01-01

    , about 50% of the Indian-origin accessions deposited in SGSV are traditional varieties or landraces with defined traits which form the backbone of any crop gene pool. This paper is also attempting to correlate the global data on Indian-origin germplasm with the national germplasm export profile. The analysis from this paper is discussed with the perspective of possible implications in the access and benefit sharing regime of both the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and the newly enforced Nagoya Protocol under the Convention on Biological Diversity. PMID:25974270

  4. Physiological responses of herbaceous plants to climate change: a century long assessment based on the stable isotope analysis of herbaria specimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Gutierrez, Cristina; Siegwolf, Rolf; Kahmen, Ansgar

    2015-04-01

    It is important to understand plant physiological responses to climate change, as these responses could influence global carbon and water cycles and could ultimately drive changes in plant communities' distribution and biodiversity. Some studies have already related drifts in species' distribution to climate change and manipulative experiments found short-term plant physiological responses to variations in climate. However, plant physiological responses may be species specific and their magnitude was found to decrease with time in these experimental studies. This indicates possible long-term processes of acclimation and adaptation in plants and urges the need to assess the long-term responses of plants to climate change. The isotopic analysis of archived plant material offers the exceptional opportunity to reconstruct the physiological activity of plants over long time periods. The carbon isotopic composition of plants is a good proxy of leaf-level intrinsic water use efficiency and leaf oxygen isotopic composition can provide a time-integrated indication of leaf stomatal conductance during the growing season. Previous studies analysing the physiological activity of plants over long time periods have largely focused on the stable isotope analyses of tree ring chronosequences. Trees represent, however, less than 2% of plant species found in Switzerland. The stable isotope analysis of herbarium samples offers the opportunity to reconstruct the physiological processes of a large range of different plant species from different environments. The objective of this study is to assess the long-term physiological responses of herbaceous plant species from diverse environments and functional groups to changes in climate occurred during the past centuries in Switzerland. In order to do so, leaf herbarium samples from a large number of herbaceous plants species are analysed for their stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios. Samples are collected from the unique herbaria hold

  5. Las relaciones entre Globalización, Medio Ambiente y Salud: Retos para la enfermería en el siglo XXI The globalization, environment and health relationship: Challenges for nursing in the XXI Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Angel Vargas

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo surge de la necesidad de discutir los diversos impactos generados por el proceso de globalización en la medida que interfiere en las relaciones políticas, económicas, sociales, culturales, que se expresan en degradación ambiental y constituyen fuertes amenazas para la salud de individuos y comunidades a nivel local y global. Se propone estimular la reflexión a partir del análisis interdisciplinar del conocimiento producido sobre macro categorías como globalización, medio ambiente y salud y su articulación con el ejercicio profesional del enfermero. Metodológicamente se trata de una sistematización a partir de fuentes bibliográficas primarias y secundarias disponibles inclusive en bases indexadas. Podemos concluir que el ejercicio profesional de enfermería en el siglo XXI exige enfrentar el desafío de (redimensionar el cuidado, que debe ser entendido no como un acto y si como una actitud cuidadora y un compromiso con la defensa de la vida de ésta y las futuras generaciones.This article is a result of the necessity of discussing the many impacts that the globalization process, since it affects way the political, economical and social relations, that are expressed in the environmental degradation and becomes a strong threat to the health of individuals and communities in the local and global levels. Intends to stimulate a reflection from the interdisciplinary analysis of the developed knowledge about categories like globalization, environment and health, and their articulation with the professional nursing practice. In a methodological point of view, it is systematization from primary and secondary bibliographic sources including indexed ones. We conclude that the professional nursing practice in the XXI century demands confronting the challenge of resize the concept of nursing care, must be understood not as an act but as a caring actitude and a commitment to the protection of life of this and future's generations.

  6. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  7. Global pattern analysis and classification of dermoscopic images using textons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Maryam; Lee, Tim K.; McLean, David; Lui, Harvey; Atkins, M. Stella

    2012-02-01

    Detecting and classifying global dermoscopic patterns are crucial steps for detecting melanocytic lesions from non-melanocytic ones. An important stage of melanoma diagnosis uses pattern analysis methods such as 7-point check list, Menzies method etc. In this paper, we present a novel approach to investigate texture analysis and classification of 5 classes of global lesion patterns (reticular, globular, cobblestone, homogeneous, and parallel pattern) in dermoscopic images. Our statistical approach models the texture by the joint probability distribution of filter responses using a comprehensive set of the state of the art filter banks. This distribution is represented by the frequency histogram of filter response cluster centers called textons. We have also examined other two methods: Joint Distribution of Intensities (JDI) and Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (CRBM) to learn the pattern specific features to be used for textons. The classification performance is compared over the Leung and Malik filters (LM), Root Filter Set (RFS), Maximum Response Filters (MR8), Schmid, Laws and our proposed filter set as well as CRBM and JDI. We analyzed 375 images of the 5 classes of the patterns. Our experiments show that the joint distribution of color (JDC) in the L*a*b* color space outperforms the other color spaces with a correct classification rate of 86.8%.

  8. Global analysis of radio-frequency current drive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A theoretical analysis of radio-frequency current drive in a tokamak at frequencies much less than the electron cyclotron frequency is presented. The global model discussed includes kinetic hot plasma effects and collisions. It is found that all kinds of wave plasma interactions (resonant wave-electron interaction, resonant wave-ion interaction and collisions) can contribute to the current drive. The analysis presented discusses the following important current drive components: the momentum-transfer current and polarization current, the helicity current, the resonant and non resonant currents, the currents caused by kinetic and collisional effects. Expressions for all current drive components are derived, and comparison with the results on helicity current drive obtained by other researchers is given. (author)

  9. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    CERN Document Server

    Marrel, Amandine; Jullien, Michel; Laurent, Beatrice; Volkova, Elena

    2010-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Metamodel-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the cpu time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common metamodel-based sensitivity analysis methods are well-suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the metamodeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then a...

  10. Global analysis of a supersymmetric Pati-Salam model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We perform a complete global phenomenological analysis of a realistic string-inspired model based on the supersymmetric Pati-Salam SU(4)xSU(2)LxSU(2)R gauge group supplemented by a U(1) family symmetry, and present predictions for all observables including muon g-2, τγ, and the CHOOZ angle. Our analysis demonstrates the compatibility of such a model with all laboratory data including charged fermion masses and mixing angles, LMA MSW and atmospheric neutrino masses and mixing angles, and b→sγ, allowing for small deviations from third family Yukawa unification. We show that in such models the squark and slepton masses may be rather light compared to similar models with exact Yukawa unification. (author)

  11. MEASURING GLOBALIZATION OPENING THE BLACK BOX. A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF GLOBALIZATION INDICES

    OpenAIRE

    Dreher, Axel; Gaston, Noel; Martens, Pim; Boxem, Van, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    Indices of globalization are employed in various ways. This paper discusses the measurement of globalization with a view to advancing the understanding of globalization indices. Our assessment is that a true understanding of globalization must be an interdisciplinary enterprise. Moreover, it would be fruitful if academics, both quantitative experts and theoreticians, can work together on this challenge. Despite the different methodologies, choice of variables and weights, in order to study an...

  12. A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

    2016-11-15

    Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions. PMID:27432722

  13. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    vulnerable to climate change impacts. Here we focus on tipping elements within the physical / biological system. In the following two sections, we briefly highlight some of our methodological research regarding global mean precipitation and regional climate change. These methodological developments provided the underpinning for our subsequent analysis of individual large-scale climate impacts, as e.g. mass losses of the Greenland ice sheet, the release of greenhouse gases by the thawing of permafrost regions or the threat of coral reefs by high ocean temperatures.

  14. Academia in the 21st century: an analysis of trends and perspectives in higher education and research

    OpenAIRE

    Boer, de, F.R.; Huisman, Jeroen; Klemperer, Anne; Meulen, van der, J.; Neave, Guy; Theisens, Henno; Wende, van der, Marijk

    2002-01-01

    What are world wide the main trends that will or should have an impact on the future of academia? What is expected from academia by different stakeholders in the years to come? These and related questions are addressed in CHEPS¿s report ¿Academia in the 21st century. An analysis of trends and perspectives in higher education and research¿. The report is the outcome of a challenging project commissioned by the Advisory Council for Science and Technology Policy (Dutch abbreviation AWT). In the ...

  15. Iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" in Books of Hours of 15th and 16th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsa Guyot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the light of biblical exegesis and medieval literature, this paper proposes an iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" as it appears in Books of Hours. From the fifteenth to the sixteenth century, pictorial representations of this Old Testament scene experienced a boom justified by the underlying eroticism of this episode in which David surprises Bathsheba as she is performing a ritual purification bath. The illuminations that we study reflect the encounter between the Christian tradition and humanistic culture.

  16. Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy analysis of house paint and wallpaper samples from an 18th century historic property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harroun, S G; Bergman, J; Jablonski, E; Brosseau, C L

    2011-09-01

    Conservation efforts for heritage buildings require a substantial knowledge of the chemical makeup of materials that were used throughout the lifetime of the property. In particular, conservators are often concerned with the identification of colorants used in both interior and exterior wall treatments (paint, wallpaper, etc.) in order to gain perspective into how the building may have appeared during a certain time period in its existence. Ideally, such an analysis requires a technique that provides molecular level information as to the identity of the colorant as well as other sample components (binders, fillers, etc.), which is useful for dating purposes. In addition, the technique should be easily applied to paint layer samples which can be extremely thin and fragile. Herein we report the surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) analysis of paint and wallpaper samples taken from exterior and interior surfaces of a historic building. Several pigments were identified in the samples, which ranged from early inorganic pigments (lead white, barium sulfate, calcium carbonate, anhydrous chromium(III) oxide) which have been used in house paints for centuries, to a more modern pigment (phthalocyanine blue), developed in the middle of the 20th century. This analysis highlights the usefulness of SERS in such a conservation effort, and demonstrates for the first time pigment identification in house paints and wallpaper using SERS, which has far-reaching implications not only in the field of conservation, but also in forensics, industrial process control, and environmental health and safety. PMID:21267481

  17. Genetic analysis of human remains found in two eighteenth century Yakut graves at At-Dabaan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaut, François-Xavier; Kolodesnikov, Sergei; Keyser-Tracqui, Christine; Alekseev, Anatoly Nikoyevich; Crubézy, Eric; Ludes, Bertrand

    2004-02-01

    We extracted DNA from three skeletons belonging to the Yakut population, which were excavated from the At-Dabaan site (dating back 300 years) in the Sakha Republic (Russia). Ancient DNA was analyzed by autosomal STRs (short tandem repeats) and by the sequencing of the hypervariable region 1 (HV1) of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region. The results showed that these three skeletons were not close relatives but probably linked to the same clan structure. Comparison of their haplotypes with the haplotypes of 8,774 Eurasian individuals suggested a relative specificity and continuity of part of the Yakut mitochondrial gene pool during the last 3 centuries. PMID:14608462

  18. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  19. The role of nuclear energy in the next century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation perform a forecasting on the role of nuclear energy in the next century. The overview covers cost analysis of the different energy sources oriented to globalization, comparison, sensitiveness trends and risks. The second part spots on the decision making, involved organizations, criteria and the economic parameter to be taken into consideration in the definition process for energy planning. Another part considers the globalization from the nuclear energy viewpoint

  20. Nonlinear analysis of position estimate in global navigation satellite systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents a nonlinear analysis of position estimation based on a global navigation satellite system. A classical problem formulation and iterative solution that results in the weighted least squares estimate of the receiver state are assumed. The analysis employs the Taylor's theorem to express the nonlinear measurement model using the first order Taylor polynomial at the state estimate and the Lagrange form of the remainder. A sensitivity analysis of the Jacobian matrix pseudoinverse is performed, and an upper bound on the size of the Lagrange remainder is derived using eigenstructure of the Hessian matrix. The results obtained show that both the sensitivity of the pseudoinverse and the size of the quadratic term are not significant, and thus the linear approximation commonly used to derive stochastic properties of the state estimate is reasonable. Although this result has been experimentally confirmed by numerous successful applications, this analysis can serve as a more rigorous basis when the design procedures for a safety critical system have to be satisfied

  1. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  2. Global stability analysis of turbulent 3D wakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigas, Georgios; Sipp, Denis; Juniper, Matthew

    2015-11-01

    At low Reynolds numbers, corresponding to laminar and transitional regimes, hydrodynamic stability theory has aided the understanding of the dynamics of bluff body wake-flows and the application of effective control strategies. However, flows of fundamental importance to many industries, in particular the transport industry, involve high Reynolds numbers and turbulent wakes. Despite their turbulence, such wake flows exhibit organisation which is manifested as coherent structures. Recent work has shown that the turbulent coherent structures retain the shape of the symmetry-breaking laminar instabilities and only those manifest as large-scale structures in the near wake (Rigas et al., JFM vol. 750:R5 2014, JFM vol. 778:R2 2015). Based on the findings of the persistence of the laminar instabilities at high Reynolds numbers, we investigate the global stability characteristics of a turbulent wake generated behind a bluff three-dimensional axisymmetric body. We perform a linear global stability analysis on the experimentally obtained mean flow and we recover the dynamic characteristics and spatial structure of the coherent structures, which are linked to the transitional instabilities. A detailed comparison of the predictions with the experimental measurements will be provided.

  3. Analysis of Improvement on Human Resource Management within Chinese Enterprises in Economic Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Lihui Xie; Dasong Deng; Xifa Liu

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we analysis of improvement on human resource management within Chinese enterprises in economic globalization. China’s entry into WTO has accelerated the economic globalization pace of Chinese enterprises and Chinese economy is further integrated with the global economy in a global scope. Human resource is what economic globalization of Chinese enterprises relies on, the first resource for China to participate in the international competition and is also the key to make effectiv...

  4. GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) version 1.1 (NODC Accession 0001644)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a cooperative effort to coordinate global synthesis projects funded through NOAA/DOE and NSF as part of the Joint...

  5. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  6. An effective approximation for variance-based global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents a fairly efficient approximation for the computation of variance-based sensitivity measures associated with a general, n-dimensional function of random variables. The proposed approach is based on a multiplicative version of the dimensional reduction method (M-DRM), in which a given complex function is approximated by a product of low dimensional functions. Together with the Gaussian quadrature, the use of M-DRM significantly reduces the computation effort associated with global sensitivity analysis. An important and practical benefit of the M-DRM is the algebraic simplicity and closed-form nature of sensitivity coefficient formulas. Several examples are presented to show that the M-DRM method is as accurate as results obtained from simulations and other approximations reported in the literature

  7. Higgs Boson Cross Section from CTEQ-TEA Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2013-01-01

    We study the uncertainties of the Higgs boson production cross section through the gluon fusion subprocess at the LHC (with $\\sqrt s=7, 8$ and $14$ TeV) arising from the uncertainties of the parton distribution functions (PDFs) and of the value of the strong coupling constant $\\alpha_s(M_Z)$. These uncertainties are computed by two complementary approaches, based on the Hessian and the Lagrange Multiplier methods within the CTEQ-TEA global analysis framework. We find that their predictions for the Higgs boson cross section are in good agreement. Furthermore, the result of the Lagrange Multiplier method supports the prescriptions we have previously provided for using the Hessian method to calculate the combined PDF and $\\alpha_s$ uncertainties, and to estimate the uncertainties at the $68%$ confidence level by scaling them from the 90% confidence level.

  8. Global NLO Analysis of Nuclear Parton Distribution Functions

    CERN Document Server

    Hirai, M; Nagai, T -H

    2008-01-01

    Nuclear parton distribution functions (NPDFs) are determined by a global analysis of experimental measurements on structure-function ratios F_2^A/F_2^{A'} and Drell-Yan cross section ratios \\sigma_{DY}^A/\\sigma_{DY}^{A'}, and their uncertainties are estimated by the Hessian method. The NPDFs are obtained in both leading order (LO) and next-to-leading order (NLO) of \\alpha_s. As a result, valence-quark distributions are relatively well determined, whereas antiquark distributions at x>0.2 and gluon distributions in the whole x region have large uncertainties. The NLO uncertainties are slightly smaller than the LO ones; however, such a NLO improvement is not as significant as the nucleonic case.

  9. World-Systems Analysis, Globalization, and Incorporated Comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillip McMichael

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available When Immanuel Wallerstein (1974 subverted the mid-1970s social science scene with his concept of the ‘world-system,’ development, the ‘master’ concept of social theory, suffered a fatal blow. Wallerstein’s critique of development emphasized its misapplication as a national strategy in a hierarchical world where only some states can ‘succeed.’ Wallerstein’s path-breaking epistemological challenge to the modernization paradigm reformulated the unit of analysis of development from the nation-state to the ‘world-system.’ To be sure, the past three decades have seen reformulations, coined to address the failures of the development enterprise: frombasic needs, through participation in the world market, globalization, to local sustainability. But development, the organizing myth of our age, has never recovered.

  10. Armed Conflict, Substance Use and HIV: A Global Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerridge, Bradley T; Saha, Tulshi D; Hasin, Deborah S

    2016-03-01

    Armed conflict is frequently assumed to be a contributor to the global HIV epidemic, but existing evidence is sparse. We examined the relationship between armed conflict between 2002 and 2008 and HIV disability life years (DALYs) in 2010 among WHO Member States. Using partial least squares analysis we also examined moderation of the armed conflict-HIV link by two susceptibility constructs (background risk, substance use) and one vulnerability mediator (numbers of refugees, people on ART, and total HIV spending). Background risk directly impacted HIV DALYs (p natural disasters on the populace in conflict-affected states. Integration of substance prevention/harm reduction programs within national HIV responses, attention to most-at-risk populations and increased surveillance/treatment of drug resistant HIV and TB is warranted. PMID:26286341

  11. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF KEY GLOBAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE MECHANISMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Krylov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses current transformations in the system of global economic governance. State-led, mixed and private models of global economic governance are examined in the comparative perspective.

  12. PIXE and IL analysis of an archeologically problematic XIII century ceramic production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchiatti, Alessandro; Jiménez-Rey, David; Climent-Font, Aurelio; Martina, Silvia; Faieta, Rosangela; Maggi, Marco; Giuntini, Lorenzo; Calusi, Silvia

    2015-11-01

    At the beginning of the XIII century the archaeologists have found evidence of a singular, transitional, pottery technique limited to a small area around western Liguria (Northwest of Italy). Known as Ligurian Protomajolica (PML), it shows in the same ceramic body and on the same surface white slip and enamel together, addressing questions about the technical reasons of this unusual combination, its origin and evolution. To integrate previous morphological and mineralogical studies, we have analysed by particle induced X-ray emission (also with mapping) and ionoluminescence (IL) the ceramic body, slip and glaze composition of 56 samples, of which 25 PML's. We have identified some PML's compositional features which are distinct from those of other coeval or later productions from the same area. A few PML imitations are described. A plausible explanation of the origin of the PML's, based both on the archaeometric results and the archaeological and historical knowledge, is presented.

  13. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  14. Global analysis of small molecule binding to related protein targets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A Kruger

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on the integration of pharmacological data and homology information for a large scale analysis of small molecule binding to related targets. Differences in small molecule binding have been assessed for curated pairs of human to rat orthologs and also for recently diverged human paralogs. Our analysis shows that in general, small molecule binding is conserved for pairs of human to rat orthologs. Using statistical tests, we identified a small number of cases where small molecule binding is different between human and rat, some of which had previously been reported in the literature. Knowledge of species specific pharmacology can be advantageous for drug discovery, where rats are frequently used as a model system. For human paralogs, we demonstrate a global correlation between sequence identity and the binding of small molecules with equivalent affinity. Our findings provide an initial general model relating small molecule binding and sequence divergence, containing the foundations for a general model to anticipate and predict within-target-family selectivity.

  15. Global three-neutrino oscillation analysis of neutrino data

    CERN Document Server

    González-Garciá, M Concepción; Peña-Garay, C; Valle, José W F

    2001-01-01

    A global analysis of the solar, atmospheric and reactor neutrino data is presented in terms of three-neutrino oscillations. We include the most recent solar neutrino rates of Homestake, SAGE, GALLEX and GNO, as well as the recent 1117 day Super-Kamiokande data sample, including the recoil electron energy spectrum both for day and night periods, and we treat in a unified way the full parameter space for oscillations, correctly accounting for the transition from the matter enhanced to the vacuum oscillations regime. Likewise, we include in our description conversions with theta /sub 12/> pi /4. For the atmospheric data we perform our analysis of the contained events and the upward-going nu -induced muon fluxes, including the previous data samples of Frejus, IMB, Nusex, and Kamioka experiments as well as the full 71 kton yr (1144 days) Super-Kamiokande data set, the recent 5.1 kton yr contained events of Soudan2 and the results on upgoing muons from the MACRO detector. We first present the allowed regions of sol...

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of the XUV-ABLATOR code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevrlý, Václav; Janku, Jaroslav; Dlabka, Jakub; Vašinek, Michal; Juha, Libor; Vyšín, Luděk.; Burian, Tomáš; Lančok, Ján.; Skřínský, Jan; Zelinger, Zdeněk.; Pira, Petr; Wild, Jan

    2013-05-01

    Availability of numerical model providing reliable estimation of the parameters of ablation processes induced by extreme ultraviolet laser pulses in the range of nanosecond and sub-picosecond timescales is highly desirable for recent experimental research as well as for practical purposes. Performance of the one-dimensional thermodynamic code (XUV-ABLATOR) in predicting the relationship of ablation rate and laser fluence is investigated for three reference materials: (i) silicon, (ii) fused silica and (iii) polymethyl methacrylate. The effect of pulse duration and different material properties on the model predictions is studied in the frame of this contribution for the conditions typical for two compact laser systems operating at 46.9 nm. Software implementation of the XUV-ABLATOR code including graphical user's interface and the set of tools for sensitivity analysis was developed. Global sensitivity analysis using high dimensional model representation in combination with quasi-random sampling was applied in order to identify the most critical input data as well as to explore the uncertainty range of model results.

  17. Reflection terahertz time-domain imaging for analysis of an 18th century neoclassical easel painting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch-Dandolo, Corinna L; Filtenborg, Troels; Fukunaga, Kaori; Skou-Hansen, Jacob; Jepsen, Peter Uhd

    2015-06-01

    Terahertz time-domain imaging (THz-TDI) has been applied for imaging a hidden portrait and other subsurface composition layers of an 18th century (18C) easel painting by Nicolai Abildgaard, the most important 18C Danish neoclassical painter of historical and mythological subjects. For the first time, a real hidden portrait on an easel painting has been imaged by THz-TDI, with an unexpected richness of detail. THz C- and B-scans have been compared with images obtained by x-ray radiography and invasive cross-sectional imaging, leading to a deeper understanding of the strengths and limitations of this technique for art diagnostic purposes and defining its role among complementary tools for the investigation of art objects. We present a fast and effective method to separate single THz pulse reflections of interest from the entire signal across the image, adapted for uneven surfaces typically encountered in practical applications of the technique. Interfaces between layers of the painting have been successfully imaged, contributing substantially to the understanding of the structure of the painting. PMID:26192674

  18. Feminism and psychology: analysis of a half-century of research on women and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagly, Alice H; Eaton, Asia; Rose, Suzanna M; Riger, Stephanie; McHugh, Maureen C

    2012-04-01

    Starting in the 1960s, feminists argued that the discipline of psychology had neglected the study of women and gender and misrepresented women in its research and theories. Feminists also posed many questions worthy of being addressed by psychological science. This call for research preceded the emergence of a new and influential body of research on gender and women that grew especially rapidly during the period of greatest feminist activism. The descriptions of this research presented in this article derive from searches of the journal articles cataloged by PsycINFO for 1960-2009. These explorations revealed (a) a concentration of studies in basic research areas investigating social behavior and individual dispositions and in many applied areas, (b) differing trajectories of research on prototypical topics, and (c) diverse theoretical orientations that authors have not typically labeled as feminist. The considerable dissemination of this research is evident in its dispersion beyond gender-specialty journals into a wide range of other journals, including psychology's core review and theory journals, as well as in its coverage in introductory psychology textbooks. In this formidable body of research, psychological science has reflected the profound changes in the status of women during the last half-century and addressed numerous questions that these changes have posed. Feminism served to catalyze this research area, which grew beyond the bounds of feminist psychology to incorporate a very large array of theories, methods, and topics. PMID:22369245

  19. Images of orbitals in twentieth-century General Chemistry textbooks: a semiotic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evandro Fortes Rozentalski

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at investigating how the images of orbitals were presented in undergraduate General Chemistry textbooks throughout the twentieth century. Special attention was given to ontological and epistemological aspects related to such images. Images of orbitals from twenty-six textbooks used in Brazilian universities were analyzed according to Peircean semiotics, in order to assess: the nature of the orbital; what is the relation between representation and the represented object; what aspects of the object are highlighted by means of the representation; what are the limits and potentialities of the representation. It is observed that the images of orbitals in the textbooks are generally described as representations of maximum probability density and identified as limit surfaces. Such images present orbitals as possessing well defined sizes, shapes and directional nature. There is not sufficient information in most textbooks on the meaning of such images, especially regarding: the object of which representation takes place; how the images were produced; what aspects of the object the representation highlight; and what are the similarities and differences between the several images related to an orbital. Teaching difficulties arising from the features discussed here may be overcome by means of explicit discussion on the production, use and meaning of the representations, supported by Peircean semiotics.

  20. NATIVE LANGUAGE EDUCATION IN UKRAINE AND THE UKRAINIAN DIASPORA: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Romaniuk

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The trends of development of native language education of Ukrainians living in Ukraine, the USA and Canada have been analyzed. They are stipulated by globalization as well as integration processes on a global scale in the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st centuries. Their dependence on state language and language education policies in Ukraine have been grounded together with national consciousness of the Ukrainians whereas the western diaspora dependence on external (language policy in the country of residence, assimilation, assistance from Ukrainian part and internal factors (national consciousness of Ukrainians in the diaspora, their integration into different society, functioning of native language education, public organizations have also been reasoned. The functioning of institutions in the USA and Canada have been studied (parents/family – kindergartens – Ukrainian Studies Schools and Courses at Universities. Where the subjects in Ukrainian Language and Systems of State Educational Institutions for young generations of the American and Canadian Ukrainians are being taught. The following key trends of native language education have been distinguished: bilingualism (Russian-Ukrainian languages in Ukraine which, in general, has a negative impact on the status of national language. English-Ukrainian languages in the USA and Canada which is an essential part of the integration of national minorities representatives into the societies of these countries; reduction of Ukrainian language speakers in the USA and Canada as well as in Ukraine; state assistance in language teaching for ethnic communities/minorities in Ukraine and separate Canadian provinces; seeking for efficient means and methods of teaching native language in polytechnic / multilingual environments such as mountainous regions of the USA, Canada and Ukraine. The conclusion is that despite of assimilation and migration processes in the diaspora and Ukraine, the need

  1. Studies of Ocean Predictability at Decade to Century Time Scales Using a Global Ocean General Circulation Model in a Parallel Computing Environment; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of this report are to determine the structure of oceanic natural variability at time scales of decades to centuries, characterize the physical mechanisms responsible for the variability; determine the relative importance of heat, fresh water, and moment fluxes on the variability; determine the predictability of the variability on these times scales

  2. Global stability analysis on a class of cellular neural networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The existence, uniqueness, globally exponential stability andspeed of exponential convergence for a class of cellular neural networks are investigated. The existence of a unique equilibrium is proved under very concise conditions, and theorems for estimating the global convergence speed approaching the equilibrium and criteria for its globally exponential stability are derived, Considering synapse time delay, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functional, the existence of a unique equilibrium and its global stability for the delayed network are also proved. The results, which do not require the cloning template to be symmetric, are easy to use in network design.

  3. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    Infrastructure and the broader GEOSS architecture. Of specific interest to this session is the work on geospatial workflows and geo-processing and data discovery and access. CCIP demonstrates standards-based interoperability between geospatial applications in the service of Climate Change analysis. CCIP is planned to be a yearly exercise. It consists of a network of online data services (WCS, WFS, SOS), analysis services (WPS, WCPS, WMS), and clients that exercise those services. In 2009, CCIP focuses on Australia, and the initial application of existing OGC services to climate studies. The results of the 2009 CCIP will serve as requirements for more complex geo-processing services to be developed for CCIP 2010. The benefits of CCIP include accelerating the implementation of the GCOS, and building confidence that implementations using multi-vendor interoperable technologies can help resolve vexing climate change questions. AIP-2: Architecture Implementation Pilot, Phase 2 CCIP: Climate Challenge Integration Plugfest GEO: Group on Earth Observations GEOSS: Global Earth Observing System of Systems GCOS: Global Climate Observing System OGC: Open Geospatial Consortium SOS: Sensor Observation Service WCS: Web Coverage Service WCPS: Web Coverage Processing Service WFS: Web Feature Service WMS: Web Mapping Service

  4. The CT14 Global Analysis of Quantum Chromodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Dulat, Sayipjamal; Gao, Jun; Guzzi, Marco; Huston, Joey; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Schmidt, Carl; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C P

    2015-01-01

    We present new parton distribution functions (PDFs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) from the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of quantum chromodynamics. These differ from previous CT PDFs in several respects, including the use of data from LHC experiments and the new D0 charged lepton rapidity asymmetry data, as well as the use of more flexible parametrization of PDFs that, in particular, allows a better fit to different combinations of quark flavors. Predictions for important LHC processes, especially Higgs boson production at 13 TeV, are presented. These CT14 PDFs include a central set and error sets in the Hessian representation. For completeness, we also present the CT14 PDFs determined at the leading order (LO) and the next-to-leading order (NLO) in QCD. Besides these general-purpose PDF sets, we provide a series of (N)NLO sets with various $\\alpha_s$ values and additional sets in heavy-quark scheme with up to 3, 4, and 6 active flavors.

  5. Global secretome analysis identifies novel mediators of bone metastasis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mario Andres Blanco; Gary LeRoy; Zia Khan; Ma(s)a Ale(c)kovi(c); Barry M Zee; Benjamin A Garcia; Yibin Kang

    2012-01-01

    Bone is the one of the most common sites of distant metastasis of solid tumors.Secreted proteins are known to influence pathological interactions between metastatic cancer cells and the bone stroma.To comprehensively profile secreted proteins associated with bone metastasis,we used quantitative and non-quantitative mass spectrometry to globally analyze the secretomes of nine cell lines of varying bone metastatic ability from multiple species and cancer types.By comparing the secretomes of parental cells and their bone metastatic derivatives,we identified the secreted proteins that were uniquely associated with bone metastasis in these cell lines.We then incorporated bioinformatic analyses of large clinical metastasis datasets to obtain a list of candidate novel bone metastasis proteins of several functional classes that were strongly associated with both clinical and experimental bone metastasis.Functional validation of selected proteins indicated that in vivo bone metastasis can be promoted by high expression of (1) the salivary cystatins CST1,CST2,and CST4; (2) the plasminogen activators PLAT and PLAU; or (3) the collagen functionality proteins PLOD2 and COL6A1.Overall,our study has uncovered several new secreted mediators of bone metastasis and therefore demonstrated that secretome analysis is a powerful method for identification of novel biomarkers and candidate therapeutic targets.

  6. Global sensitivity analysis for dynamic systems with stochastic input processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dynamic systems with stochastic input processes are general engineering models. In order to apply the global sensitivity analysis on these systems to aid safety design, variance based sensitivity indices are extended to stochastic processes in this paper. Factor sensitivity indices and time sensitivity indices are defined to describe the contributions of the input factor variances of the whole time and a specific time to the output variance at the current time, respectively. Analytical expressions of sensitivity indices for linear time-invariant systems with Gaussian processes are derived due to the extensive use of them, including continuous-time systems and discrete-time systems. Monte Carlo simulation is used to verify the derived analytical expressions. The derived expressions could be used directly in practical applications to reduce computation cost. The applications of the sensitivity indices have been discussed with engineering examples, which include transient temperature measurements and a forced vibration system. Some safety design measures aided by the sensitivity indices are also discussed in these two examples. -- Highlights: • We extend the variance based sensitivity indices to stochastic processes. • Factor sensitivity indices and time sensitivity indices are defined. • Sensitivity indices for Gaussian processes are derived analytically. • Monte Carlo simulation is employed to verify the derived analytical expressions. • The proposed sensitivity indices are illustrated with engineering examples

  7. Global secretome analysis identifies novel mediators of bone metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Mario Andres; LeRoy, Gary; Khan, Zia; Alečković, Maša; Zee, Barry M; Garcia, Benjamin A; Kang, Yibin

    2012-09-01

    Bone is the one of the most common sites of distant metastasis of solid tumors. Secreted proteins are known to influence pathological interactions between metastatic cancer cells and the bone stroma. To comprehensively profile secreted proteins associated with bone metastasis, we used quantitative and non-quantitative mass spectrometry to globally analyze the secretomes of nine cell lines of varying bone metastatic ability from multiple species and cancer types. By comparing the secretomes of parental cells and their bone metastatic derivatives, we identified the secreted proteins that were uniquely associated with bone metastasis in these cell lines. We then incorporated bioinformatic analyses of large clinical metastasis datasets to obtain a list of candidate novel bone metastasis proteins of several functional classes that were strongly associated with both clinical and experimental bone metastasis. Functional validation of selected proteins indicated that in vivo bone metastasis can be promoted by high expression of (1) the salivary cystatins CST1, CST2, and CST4; (2) the plasminogen activators PLAT and PLAU; or (3) the collagen functionality proteins PLOD2 and COL6A1. Overall, our study has uncovered several new secreted mediators of bone metastasis and therefore demonstrated that secretome analysis is a powerful method for identification of novel biomarkers and candidate therapeutic targets. PMID:22688892

  8. Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

  9. Global analysis of ICRF wave coupling on Tore Supra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Tore Supra tokamak is equipped with a multi-megawatt ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) system for heating and current drive. The coupling of the fast wave to the plasma, characterized by the distributed coupling resistance along the radiating straps, is a crucial issue in order to launch large RF powers. Many factors can have an effect on ICRF wave coupling. Quantitative prediction from theoretical modelling requires the knowledge of the local inhomogeneous plasma density profile in front of the antenna for running sophisticated antenna codes. In this work, we have rather followed a 'global' approach, based on Tore Supra experimental results, for the parametric study of the coupling resistance. From a large data base covering seven experimental campaigns (∼2250 shots), a scaling law of the coupling resistance including the main parameters of the plasma and of the antenna configuration is established. This approach is found to be reliable for the analysis of coupling in the different scenarios: He/D2 gas filling, gas/pellets for plasma fuelling, plasma leaning on inner wall/low field side limiter, limiter/ergodic divertor configuration, minority heating/direct electron heating. From one scenario to another, a significant variation of the coefficients of the scaling law is found. The study of these variations allows to get some insight on the main physical mechanisms which influence the ICRF wave coupling in a tokamak operation, such as the wall conditioning and recycling conditions, RF sheaths or frequency. (author)

  10. Atmospheric CO2 during the 13th century AD: reconciliation of data from ice core measurements and stomatal frequency analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atmospheric CO2 reconstructions are currently available from direct measurements of air enclosures in Antarctic ice and, alternatively, from stomatal frequency analysis performed on fossil leaves. A period where both methods consistently provide evidence for natural CO2 changes is during the 13th century ad. The results of the two independent methods differ significantly in the amplitude of the estimated CO2 changes (10 ppmv ice versus 34 ppmv stomatal frequency). Here, we compare the stomatal frequency and ice core results by using a firn diffusion model in order to assess the potential influence of smoothing during enclosure on the temporal resolution as well as the amplitude of the CO2 changes. The seemingly large discrepancies between the amplitudes estimated by the contrasting methods diminish when the raw stomatal data are smoothed in an analogous way to the natural smoothing which occurs in the firn

  11. Global Analysis of Heat Shock Response in Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chhabra, S.R.; He, Q.; Huang, K.H.; Gaucher, S.P.; Alm, E.J.; He,Z.; Hadi, M.Z.; Hazen, T.C.; Wall, J.D.; Zhou, J.; Arkin, A.P.; Singh, A.K.

    2005-09-16

    Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough belongs to a class ofsulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and is found ubiquitously in nature.Given the importance of SRB-mediated reduction for bioremediation ofmetal ion contaminants, ongoing research on D. vulgaris has been in thedirection of elucidating regulatory mechanisms for this organism under avariety of stress conditions. This work presents a global view of thisorganism's response to elevated growth temperature using whole-celltranscriptomics and proteomics tools. Transcriptional response (1.7-foldchange or greater; Z>1.5) ranged from 1,135 genes at 15 min to 1,463genes at 120 min for a temperature up-shift of 13oC from a growthtemperature of 37oC for this organism and suggested both direct andindirect modes of heat sensing. Clusters of orthologous group categoriesthat were significantly affected included posttranslationalmodifications; protein turnover and chaperones (up-regulated); energyproduction and conversion (down-regulated), nucleotide transport,metabolism (down-regulated), and translation; ribosomal structure; andbiogenesis (down-regulated). Analysis of the genome sequence revealed thepresence of features of both negative and positive regulation whichincluded the CIRCE element and promoter sequences corresponding to thealternate sigma factors ?32 and ?54. While mechanisms of heat shockcontrol for some genes appeared to coincide with those established forEscherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis, the presence of unique controlschemes for several other genes was also evident. Analysis of proteinexpression levels using differential in-gel electrophoresis suggestedgood agreement with transcriptional profiles of several heat shockproteins, including DnaK (DVU0811), HtpG (DVU2643), HtrA (DVU1468), andAhpC (DVU2247). The proteomics study also suggested the possibility ofposttranslational modifications in the chaperones DnaK, AhpC, GroES(DVU1977), and GroEL (DVU1976) and also several periplasmic ABCtransporters.

  12. An Analysis of Globalization and Higher Education in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arokiasamy, Anantha Raj A.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to examine the impact of globalization on private higher education in Malaysia. The impact of globalization and the development of knowledge-based economy have caused much dramatic change to the character and functions of higher education in Malaysia. The major trend is the reforming and restructuring of private higher education in…

  13. Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD) derived from Remote Sensing in Support of Food Security in the Twenty-first Century: Current Achievements and Future Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teluguntla, Pardhasaradhi G.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Xiong, Jun N.; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Giri, Chandra; Milesi, Cristina; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Congalton, Russ; Tilton, James; Sankey, Temuulen Tsagaan; Massey, Richard; Phalke, Aparna; Yadav, Kamini

    2015-01-01

    The precise estimation of the global agricultural cropland- extents, areas, geographic locations, crop types, cropping intensities, and their watering methods (irrigated or rainfed; type of irrigation) provides a critical scientific basis for the development of water and food security policies (Thenkabail et al., 2012, 2011, 2010). By year 2100, the global human population is expected to grow to 10.4 billion under median fertility variants or higher under constant or higher fertility variants (Table 1) with over three quarters living in developing countries, in regions that already lack the capacity to produce enough food. With current agricultural practices, the increased demand for food and nutrition would require in about 2 billion hectares of additional cropland, about twice the equivalent to the land area of the United States, and lead to significant increases in greenhouse gas productions (Tillman et al., 2011). For example, during 1960-2010 world population more than doubled from 3 billion to 7 billion. The nutritional demand of the population also grew swiftly during this period from an average of about 2000 calories per day per person in 1960 to nearly 3000 calories per day per person in 2010. The food demand of increased population along with increased nutritional demand during this period (1960-2010) was met by the “green revolution” which more than tripled the food production; even though croplands decreased from about 0.43 ha/capita to 0.26 ha/capita (FAO, 2009). The increase in food production during the green revolution was the result of factors such as: (a) expansion in irrigated areas which increased from 130 Mha in 1960s to 278.4 Mha in year 2000 (Siebert et al., 2006) or 399 Mha when you do not consider cropping intensity (Thenkabail et al., 2009a, 2009b, 2009c) or 467 Mha when you consider cropping intensity (Thenkabail et al., 2009a; Thenkabail et al., 2009c); (b) increase in yield and per capita food production (e.g., cereal production

  14. Einstein's Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeremy Laurance; 贾庆文

    2005-01-01

    Albert Einstein began working at the patent office in Bern, Switzerland, a little more than a century ago. He had flunked the entrance exam for the Swiss Federal Insitute of Technology and took the job evaluating inventions because it paid a regular salary.

  15. Is a substantial global bioenergy system feasible? A spatial analysis using a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbrecht, T.; Lucht, W.; Lotze-Campem, H.

    2007-12-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the global demand for energy is projected to grow by more than 50 % until 2030 (IEA, 2006) and therefore actions are urgently required to decarbonize the global economy. Second generation bioenergy systems are promoted as a way forward to displace large amounts of fossil fuels with renewable materials, thereby increasing energy security and stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. At the same time, concerns are being raised regarding the sustainability of large-scale dedicated biomass plantations with regard to extensive mono- cultures, irrigation and fertilization requirements. We use a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) including current agriculture to simulate the effects of rising competition for land when an additional spatially extensive production system for a new commodity, bioenergy, is added to the global land use mix under continued increase in global population size as well as per capita energy consumption. How much land is needed for a significant bioenergy generation if sufficient food production is warranted and what are the consequences for the terrestrial biosphere? To assess the potential impacts of a significant global bioenergy sector, we produced a selection of scenarios based on prior assumptions of total bioenergy demand, progress in conversion technologies and the availability of cultivable land limited by food requirements and biodiversity protection. We present the corresponding land use patterns as well as their impacts on the terrestrial carbon balance, evapotranspiration fluxes and irrigation demand. We find that an area of up to 50 % the size of current agricultural land is needed for the cultivation of ligno-cellulosic crops to satisfy high bioenergy demands. Carbon fluxes into the atmosphere caused by the removal of natural vegetation can equal those of 8 years of fossil fuel combustion.

  16. Using global sensitivity analysis to evaluate the uncertainties of future shoreline changes under the Bruun rule assumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Oliveros, Carlos; Castelle, Bruno; Garcin, Manuel; Idier, Déborah; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Future sandy shoreline changes are often assed by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore effects. In such approaches, a contribution of sea-level rise can be incorporated by adding a supplementary term based on the Bruun rule. Here, our objective is to identify where and when the use of the Bruun rule can be (in)validated, in the case of wave-exposed beaches with gentle slopes. We first provide shoreline change scenarios that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting the idealized low- and high-energy coasts described by Stive (2004)[Stive, M. J. F. 2004, How important is global warming for coastal erosion? an editorial comment, Climatic Change, vol. 64, n 12, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024785.91858. ISSN 0165-0009]. Then, we generate shoreline change scenarios based on probabilistic sea-level rise projections based on IPCC. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defenses, the model predicts an observable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. On the contrary, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. To get insight into the relative importance of each source of uncertainties, we quantify each contributions to the variance of the model outcome using a global sensitivity analysis. This analysis shows that by the end of the 21st century, a large part of shoreline change uncertainties are due to the climate change scenario if all anthropogenic greenhousegas emission scenarios are considered equiprobable. To conclude, the analysis shows that under the assumptions above, (in)validating the Bruun rule should be straightforward during the second half of the 21st century and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Conversely, for RCP 2.6, the noise in shoreline change evolution should continue dominating the signal due to the Bruun effect. This last conclusion can be interpreted as an important potential benefit of climate change mitigation.

  17. Bond Market Analysis: the Main Constraints in the Research of 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Astrauskaitė

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Searching for alternative source of bank financing, the view on capital market is taken. Recent research on capital market issues are arranged into four dimensions: theory and assumptions of efficient capital market, government’s role in it, other distortions and global interrelatedness. Main investigations are decentralized and visualized in “theoretical eight” model. Conclusions made on the diversity of interpretation of market efficiency, strongly expressed demand of information symmetry, soft actions of governments and the value of foreign performance in domestic markets. Furthermore, new approach to the classification of countries by their maturity in capital market is argued. The state of art of 2009-2012 of bond market and government debt is briefly described.

  18. Global sea level linked to global temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperat...

  19. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  20. Analysis of Diversity-Preserving Mechanisms for Global Exploration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedrich, Tobias; Oliveto, Pietro S.; Sudholt, Dirk;

    2009-01-01

    Maintaining diversity is important for the performance of evolutionary algorithms. Diversity-preserving mechanisms can enhance global exploration of the search space and enable crossover to find dissimilar individuals for recombination. We focus on the global exploration capabilities of mutation......-based algorithms. Using a simple bimodal test function and rigorous runtime analyses, we compare well-known diversity-preserving mechanisms like deterministic crowding, fitness sharing, and others with a plain algorithm without diversification. We show that diversification is necessary for global exploration...

  1. Analysis of Daily Global Solar Radiation Data for Wuhan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gong Zhengguo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve knowledge on solar resources, this paper analyses the models correlating daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for Wuhan, China. Estimated values were compared with measured values in terms of statistical error tests such as mean percentage error (MPE, mean bias error (MBE, root mean square error (RMSE. The model performing best was selected. The global solar radiation estimated from the best model was compared with measured values. It was determined that the predicted values have good agreement with the measured values at high daily global solar radiation.

  2. Analysis of ensemble quality of initialzed hindcasts in the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Baehr, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    Global coupled climate models have been used to generate long-term projections of potential climate changes for the next century. On much shorter timescales, numerical weather prediction systems forecast the atmospheric state for the next days. The first approach depends largely on the boundary conditions, i.e., the applied external forcings, while the second depends largely on the initial conditions, i.e., the observed atmospheric state. For medium range climate predictions, on interannual to decadal time scales, both initial and boundary conditions are thought to influence the climate state, because the ocean is expected to have a much larger deterministic timescale than the atmosphere. The respective climate model needs to resemble the observed climate state and its tendency at the start of the prediction. This is realized by incorporating observations into both the oceanic and atmospheric components of the climate model leading to an initialized simulation. Here, we analyze the quality of an initialized ensemble generated with the global coupled Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We initialize for every year for the time period 1960 to 2014 an ensemble run out to 10 yaers length. This hindcast ensemble is conducted within the MiKlip framework for interannual to decadal climate prediction. In this context, the initialization of the oceanic component of the model ensemble is thought to impact the model state within the first years of prediction, however, it remains poorly known, for how much longer this impact can be detected. In our analysis we focus on the North Atlantic ocean variability and assess the evolution in time of both the probability density function (PDF) and the spread-error-ratio of the ensemble. Firstly, by comparing these characteristics of the initialized ensemble with an uninitialized ensemble we aim to (1) measure the difference in the initialized and uninitialized ensemble, (2) assess the evolution of this

  3. Completion of the Global Analysis of the Sixth Painleve' Equation (October 2010)

    CERN Document Server

    Guzzetti, Davide

    2010-01-01

    We complete the global analysis of the Painleve' 6 equation PVI. With this paper and my previous ones, we have obtained all critical behaviors and connection formulae for PVI transcendents. Therefore, we have solved the many decades lasting problem of global analysis.

  4. Global analysis of viral infection in an archaeal model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JosephSteffens

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The origin and evolutionary relationship of viruses is poorly understood. This makes archaeal virus-host of particular interest because the hosts generally root near the base of phylogenetic trees, while some of the viruses have clear structural similarities to those that infect prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. Despite the advantageous position for use in evolutionary studies, little is known about archaeal viruses or how they interact with their hosts, compared to viruses of bacteria and eukaryotes. In addition, many archaeal viruses have been isolated from extreme environments and present a unique opportunity for elucidating factors that are important for existence at the extremes.. In this article we focus on virus-host interactions using a proteomics approach to study Sulfolobus Turreted Icosahedral Virus (STIV infection of Sulfolobus solfataricus P2. Using cultures grown from the ATCC cell stock, a single cycle of STIV infection was sampled 6 times over a 72 hr period. More than 700 proteins were identified throughout the course of the experiments. Seventy one host proteins were found to change by nearly two-fold (p<0.05 with 40 becoming more abundant and 31 less abundant. The modulated proteins represent 30 different cell pathways and 14 COG groups. 2D gel analysis showed that changes in post translational modifications were a common feature of the affected proteins. The results from these studies showed that the prokaryotic antiviral adaptive immune system CRISPR associated proteins (CAS proteins were regulated in response to the virus infection. It was found that regulated proteins come from mRNAs with a shorter than average half-life. In addition, activity-based protein profiling (ABPP profiling on 2D gels showed caspase, hydrolase and tyrosine phosphatase enzyme activity labeling at the protein isoform level. Together, this data provides a more detailed global view of archaeal cellular responses to viral infection, demonstrates the

  5. Analysis of Improvement on Human Resource Management within Chinese Enterprises in Economic Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihui Xie

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analysis of improvement on human resource management within Chinese enterprises in economic globalization. China’s entry into WTO has accelerated the economic globalization pace of Chinese enterprises and Chinese economy is further integrated with the global economy in a global scope. Human resource is what economic globalization of Chinese enterprises relies on, the first resource for China to participate in the international competition and is also the key to make effective use of other resources. Nevertheless, under the background of economic globalization, human resource management in Chinese enterprises is still faced up with quite a lot of challenges and problems. In order to establish a human resource management concept of globalization and set up a human resource management mechanism to respond to the economic globalization, this study makes a discussion and proposes management method and improvement measures for reference.

  6. Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts-a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 deg. C, and even more so for 1.5 deg. C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 deg. C goal is likely to become less feasible.

  7. Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer;

    2014-01-01

    The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...

  8. CAGE Analysis of China’s Trade Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Olusegun STOBER

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Gravity model of international trade states that trade interaction between two countries is in direct proportion to their size measured by Gross Domestic Product and in inverse proportion to the geographic distance. Conley and Ligon (2001 argued that the relevant economic distance between countries is often not the geographic distance. Thus, this study uses original datasets on economic distance to structure observed variations, to decompose the multidimensional CAGE distance framework of globalization derived from the Newton’s Law of gravitation as it applies to China’s international interaction, to evaluate bilateral trade patterns in identifying and prioritizing the importance of cross-border flows and differences that accounted for the development of China’s global strategies. This study confirms that distance must be accounted for in the decision making of any country’s globalization process or any firm’s global expansion as the effects on cross-border economic activities are enormous.

  9. Global stability analysis of pressurized water reactor core nonlinear system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Determining the global stability of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) core nonlinear system is the problem to be solved. In the paper, the core nonlinear system was modeled and the linearized model of the system was obtained via the small perturbation method. According to the distributing situation of the core nonlinearity measure in the power level range based on the equilibrium manifold, seven linear models corresponding to seven power levels respectively were chosen as local models of the core and the set of seven local models was used to approximately substitute the core system. The global stability of the PWR core nonlinear system was analyzed by utilizing Lyapunov stability theory. The calculated result shows that the core nonlinear system is globally and asymptotically stable. The modeling method of the core is effective in analyzing the global stability of a PWR core nonlinear system. (authors)

  10. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  11. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy. (author)

  12. A comparative analysis of solutions regarding the current global crisis

    OpenAIRE

    DORNEAN Adina; ISAN Vasile

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyze comparatively and critically the solutions adopted on international level by the European Union and also by different countries. In the first part, the paper aims at emphasizing the causes of the global economic and financial crisis and its features, including the contagion effect which manifested. In the second part, we consider the main implications of the global financial turmoil in order to emphasize the serious effects of the crisis. Finally, we analyz...

  13. Global English and Listening Materials : A Textbook Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Eggert, Björn

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on listening materials used in English language teaching in Sweden, especially in respect to the concept of global English. Global English could briefly be described as the linguistic, cultural, politic, and economic influence of English in the world. This influence concerns two aspects of English, namely the usage of English as a lingua franca in international communications, as well as the great range of English varieties that are used today. The purpose of this research ...

  14. An Appeal to the Global Health Community for a Tripartite Innovation: An "Essential Diagnostics List," "Health in All Policies," and "See-Through 21(st) Century Science and Ethics".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Edward S; Barlas, I Ömer; Birch, Kean; Boehme, Catharina; Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander; Byne, William M; Chaverneff, Florence; Coşkun, Yavuz; Dahl, Marja-Liisa; Dereli, Türkay; Diwakar, Shyam; Elbeyli, Levent; Endrenyi, Laszlo; Eroğlu-Kesim, Belgin; Ferguson, Lynnette R; Güngör, Kıvanç; Gürsoy, Ulvi; Hekim, Nezih; Huzair, Farah; Kaushik, Kabeer; Kickbusch, Ilona; Kıroğlu, Olcay; Kolker, Eugene; Könönen, Eija; Lin, Biaoyang; Llerena, Adrian; Malhan, Faruk; Nair, Bipin; Patrinos, George P; Şardaş, Semra; Sert, Özlem; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Steuten, Lotte M G; Toraman, Cengiz; Vayena, Effy; Wang, Wei; Warnich, Louise; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-08-01

    Diagnostics spanning a wide range of new biotechnologies, including proteomics, metabolomics, and nanotechnology, are emerging as companion tests to innovative medicines. In this Opinion, we present the rationale for promulgating an "Essential Diagnostics List." Additionally, we explain the ways in which adopting a vision for "Health in All Policies" could link essential diagnostics with robust and timely societal outcomes such as sustainable development, human rights, gender parity, and alleviation of poverty. We do so in three ways. First, we propose the need for a new, "see through" taxonomy for knowledge-based innovation as we transition from the material industries (e.g., textiles, plastic, cement, glass) dominant in the 20(th) century to the anticipated knowledge industry of the 21st century. If knowledge is the currency of the present century, then it is sensible to adopt an approach that thoroughly examines scientific knowledge, starting with the production aims, methods, quality, distribution, access, and the ends it purports to serve. Second, we explain that this knowledge trajectory focus on innovation is crucial and applicable across all sectors, including public, private, or public-private partnerships, as it underscores the fact that scientific knowledge is a co-product of technology, human values, and social systems. By making the value systems embedded in scientific design and knowledge co-production transparent, we all stand to benefit from sustainable and transparent science. Third, we appeal to the global health community to consider the necessary qualities of good governance for 21st century organizations that will embark on developing essential diagnostics. These have importance not only for science and knowledge-based innovation, but also for the ways in which we can build open, healthy, and peaceful civil societies today and for future generations. PMID:26161545

  15. Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Prinn, R.G.; McGuire, A.D.; Steudler, P.A.; Felzer, B.S.; Hu, S.

    2004-01-01

    We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the twentieth century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr-1. Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere, responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large interannual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. Our analyses of the responses of net CH4 emissions to the past climate change suggest that future global warming will increase net CH4 emissions from the Pan-Arctic region. The higher net CH4 emissions may increase atmospheric CH 4 concentrations to provide a major positive feedback to the climate system. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Twenty First Century Cyberbullying Defined: An Analysis of Intent, Repetition and Emotional Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Carol Marie

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the extent and impact that cyberbullying has on the undergraduate college student and provide a current definition for the event. A priori power analysis guided this research to provide an 80 percent probability of detecting a real effect with medium effect size. Adequate research power was essential to…

  17. The First Century of Disability Portrayal in Film: An Analysis of the Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safran, Stephen P.

    1998-01-01

    Provides an interdisciplinary review of portrayal of disability in film by integrating resources from film history, the social sciences, rehabilitation, mass communication, psychology, psychiatry, and education. Analysis addresses the quality of cinematic representations of disability and the politics of film. Psychiatric disorders were most…

  18. A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre; Gay-García, Carlos; Martínez-López, Benjamín

    2013-01-01

    In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970’s. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies. PMID:23555866

  19. EDXRF portable system used in the analysis of altars, sculptures and paintings from XVII and XVIII centuries in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The preservation of cultural heritage has acquired increasing interest in the last decades and many scientific techniques have been employed to analyze paintings, manuscripts, ceramics, glasses, statues, coins and metal artifacts in order to solve problems related to restoration, conservation, dating and attribution of artworks. There is also an increasing trend for non-destructive investigations since most of the samples are unique and precious objects of art and archaeology. X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) is the most widely used investigative technique in the field of archaeometry, due to a number of favorable analytical characteristics, such as multielemental and non-destructive analysis, high sensitivity and applicability to a wide range of samples. In this work, XRF was used to analyze altars, sculptures and paintings in the Saint Anthony Convent (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The cornerstone of this convent was launched in 1608, by the Franciscan friars, and the construction of the church was finished in 1620. The Saint Anthony sculpture in the main altar is one of the few remaining pieces from the XVII century in Rio de Janeiro. The splendid Baroque carvings of the chapel, covered with integral gilding, in the national Portuguese style, dates from 1716 to 1719. The results obtained during the analyses have been used in the meticulous process of restoration, developed in the last two years, in order to recover the original splendour of this important piece of our cultural heritage. The analyses were carried out with an EDXRF portable system developed in the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory, consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 μA, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. In each sample were obtained several spectra, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 1.5 and 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL from IAEA. The analysis of the golden carvings of the altars, in

  20. Analysis of geomorphic systems' response to natural and human drivers in northern Spain: Implications for global geomorphic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruschi, V. M.; Bonachea, J.; Remondo, J.; Gómez-Arozamena, J.; Rivas, V.; Méndez, G.; Naredo, J. M.; Cendrero, A.

    2013-08-01

    An analysis of changes experienced during the last century by certain indicators of the intensity of geomorphic processes in northern Spain is presented, in order to test a previously formulated hypothesis. The hypothesis, already tested in the Rio de la Plata Basin, is that there is a global geomorphic change which implies an acceleration of geomorphic processes in general, and that such acceleration is mainly due to the transformation of land surface by human activities, not to climate factors. Sedimentation rates obtained in eight estuaries in northern Spain, through Pb-210 and Cs-137 dating of sediment cores, show a general increase since the beginning of last century, and particularly after the 1950s. Similar increases in landslide frequency have been formerly observed in some areas of the same region. Trends of change in sedimentation rates have been compared with those of potential natural (rainfall) and human (indicators of the intensity of human activities that can contribute to land-surface transformation) drivers. There seems to be no relationship between rainfall and sedimentation rate trends but the magnitude and trends of several indicators of human activity are similar to those of the latter. Data on landslide frequency obtained in a small study area also show a possible relationship with land-use change and infrastructure development, but not with rainfall. The results described are coherent with the hypothesis and suggest that the process described could have a global character. If this is so, the worldwide observed increase in flood and landslide disasters might be a characteristic of the Anthropocene and due to human-induced geomorphic change, rather than climate change (also human-induced), as often assumed.

  1. Indian Handicrafts in Globalization Times: An analysis of Global-Local Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradeep Kumar Jena

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – which refers to the growing integration of societies, economies and cultures around the world, has become one of the most hotly-debated topics and key area of research among the policy makers, statesmen, corporate, politicians and academia respectively over the past few years. As India opens up her doors to the multinationals during the era of economic reform and liberalized market, putting an end to the ‘license raj’, it is not only the economies that often meet in the global market sphere, but also the people and cultures, which bring a new dimension to the multi-cultural setting. What we can see in present day modern world is that there is always a cross-cultural interaction between the ‘local’ and ‘global’ and the much discussed ‘global village’, is now not just a possibility but a reality despite many contradictions. Talking about Indian Handicrafts, which constitutes a significant segment of the decentralized sector of the economy, its export has reached at a commendable height. Indian folk art and crafts which are the integral parts of the Indian culture and tradition, are in high demand among the western consumers. Again, foreign fashion industry borrows a great deal from Indian appliquéd motifs Saree designs, an ethnic Indian wear. Needless to say, the borders between the world cultures are now eroding out and becoming irrelevant, therefore prompting to call it as a deterritorialized world.But notwithstanding, the real concern for many of us is that, can the ‘local’ really meet with the ‘global’ by truly sustaining its localness? The biggest problem in the Indian Handicraft industry is that the village craftsmen remain concerned that with free trade and mass production, hand-made products from other parts of the world will out price the products of their hard labour. So the basic question arises, is globalization a panacea for every human problems that the mother earth is facing now? With a

  2. Three Dialogs: A Framework for the Analysis and Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Literacy Practices, and Its Use in the Context of Game Design within "Gamestar Mechanic"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Games, Ivan Alex

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses a framework for the analysis and assessment of twenty-first-century language and literacy practices in game and design-based contexts. It presents the framework in the context of game design within "Gamestar Mechanic", an innovative game-based learning environment where children learn the Discourse of game design. It…

  3. PATTERN OF MORAL PEASANT. CUSTOMS OF POLISH PEASANTS IN XIX CENTURY. AN ANALYSIS OF POPULAR LITERATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Lisowski

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses customs of Polish countryside inhabitants in partitioned Poland. The author presents some aspects of social life, morality and folk culture. Popular literature has played very important role in education of pesants, not only in agriculture and technology but also in teaching of ethics. For historicians popular literature (handbooks, calendars, brochures is an important source of knowledge. Such analysis gives us a lot of informations about good and bad sides of everydaylife of countrymen in the past.

  4. PIXE Analysis for the pigment identification in the Nizet manucript (18th century)

    OpenAIRE

    Machowski, Mélanie; Calvo del Castillo, Helena; Oger, Cécile; Chene, Grégoire; Strivay, David

    2013-01-01

    Written in 1740, the Nizet Manuscript is a heraldry book compiling the genealogy of the Nizet family (Verviers, Belgium). It presents a large number of hand-painted heraldries in traditional heraldic colours; the gold- and silver-like colours have undergone alteration and induced the degradation of the paper. The first inspection of the book with a binocular lens and UV-visible spectroscopy has led to the selection of representative points to be studied by PIXE analysis for the different g...

  5. A bioarchaeological and historical analysis of scurvy in eighteenth and nineteenth century England

    OpenAIRE

    Sinnott, C A

    2015-01-01

    The identification of metabolic diseases is a crucial aspect of osteoarchaeological analysis and of paleopathological studies. This study is specifically concerned with the study of scurvy and its bony manifestation. This investigation considers the recognition of the bony lesions of scurvy in adult skeletons that originate from English archaeological contexts dating to the Post Medieval period. In order to identify scorbutic bony lesions, assemblages were analysed that derived from the Georg...

  6. Facilitation of the PED analysis of large molecules by using global coordinates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamróz, Michał H; Ostrowski, Sławomir; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz

    2015-10-01

    Global coordinates have been found to be useful in the potential energy distribution (PED) analyses of the following large molecules: [13]-acene and [33]-helicene. The global coordinate is defined based on much distanced fragments of the analysed molecule, whereas so far, the coordinates used in the analysis were based on stretchings, bendings, or torsions of the adjacent atoms. It has been shown that the PED analyses performed using the global coordinate and the classical ones can lead to exactly the same PED contributions. The global coordinates may significantly improve the facility of the analysis of the vibrational spectra of large molecules. PMID:25978013

  7. Sociocultural and institutional drivers and constraints to mineral supply; the meaning of scarcity in the 21st century: drivers and constraints to the supply of minerals using regional, national and global perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, William M.

    2002-01-01

    The sociocultural dimensions of mineral supply at the outset of the 21st century are making the supply process increasingly complex. The dimensions encompass legal, financial, environmental, cultural, and global implications of mining, and are driving unprecedented change in the way minerals supply will be accomplished in the future. Minerals scarcity on a global scale is subordinate to other societal issues about mineral resources and reserves estimated to meet society's demands for decades to centuries in the future. This report reviews historical and present-day sociocultural drivers of change, and reactions of the minerals industry to these drivers. It is reflective primarily of conditions in the United States, but also uses examples from other countries. It expresses viewpoints on sociocultural drivers as seen by constituents of the minerals industry and several other communities of interest including Aboriginal peoples, non-government organizations; labor; mining-dependent communities; mining-affected communities; researchers; and government (federal, state/provincial, and local). It provides overviews of the demand for minerals in the United States, and the status of land available for mining. The report uses a case study of a metals mining project in Wisconsin to illustrate specific sociocultural drivers and constraints to minerals supply, and how these influence the minerals industry. Over the past 150 years, a progression of sociocultural movements under the headings of conservationism, environmentalism, and sustainable development have nurtured societal values that have come to influence the mineral supply process in important ways. These movements reflect a continuing tension between the demand for minerals and other resources, and the simultaneous demand for aesthetic, spiritual, ecological, cultural, and other attributes of the land. The tension is an important element in current international debates about the meaning and future of sustainable

  8. Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Melo, P. A.; Crucifix, M.; Bounceur, N.

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to the full spectrum of climatic conditions experienced during the Pleistocene is estimated using the climate model HadCM3. The methodology follows a global sensitivity analysis based on the emulator approach of Oakley and O'Hagan (2004) implemented following a three-step strategy: (1) development of an experiment plan, designed to efficiently sample a five-dimensional input space spanning Pleistocene astronomical configurations (three parameters), CO2 concentration and a Northern Hemisphere glaciation index; (2) development, calibration and validation of an emulator of HadCM3 in order to estimate the response of the Indian monsoon over the full input space spanned by the experiment design; and (3) estimation and interpreting of sensitivity diagnostics, including sensitivity measures, in order to synthesise the relative importance of input factors on monsoon dynamics, estimate the phase of the monsoon intensity response with respect to that of insolation, and detect potential non-linear phenomena. By focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, mixed-layer depth and sea-surface temperature over the monsoon region during the summer season (June-July-August-September), we show that precession controls the response of four variables: continental temperature in phase with June to July insolation, high glaciation favouring a late-phase response, sea-surface temperature in phase with May insolation, continental precipitation in phase with July insolation, and mixed-layer depth in antiphase with the latter. CO2 variations control temperature variance with an amplitude similar to that of precession. The effect of glaciation is dominated by the albedo forcing, and its effect on precipitation competes with that of precession. Obliquity is a secondary effect, negligible on most variables except sea-surface temperature. It is also shown that orography forcing reduces the glacial cooling, and even has a positive effect on precipitation

  9. Analysis of Current Global Nuclear Safety and Security Cooperation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu; Chong

    2014-01-01

    Last year, global nuclear security and safety cooperation achieved some progress. In terms of nuclear safety, too many flaws are exposed by the current severe situation of the Fukushima in Japan’s new nuclear safety regulation system, and sound the alarm for East Asia countries accelerating the regional nuclear safety cooperation. In terms of nuclear security, since the Seoul Summit in March 2012, global nuclear security cooperation has achieved new successes. IAEA has and would play the central role in pushing forward the international framework and strengthening nuclear security globally. However, there are still some obstacles to overcome in the future, which need international society to enhance communication and common understanding, especially high-level consultations.

  10. Variability-based global sensitivity analysis of circuit response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opalski, Leszek J.

    2014-11-01

    The research problem of interest to this paper is: how to determine efficiently and objectively the most and the least influential parameters of a multimodule electronic system - given the system model f and the module parameter variation ranges. The author investigates if existing generic global sensitivity methods are applicable for electronic circuit design, even if they were developed (and successfully applied) in quite distant engineering areas. A photodiode detector analog front-end system response time is used to reveal capability of the selected global sensitivity approaches under study.

  11. Bridging the gaps for global sustainable development: a quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Victor E; Jansson, Peter Mark

    2009-09-01

    Global human progress occurs in a complex web of interactions between society, technology and the environment as driven by governance and infrastructure management capacity among nations. In our globalizing world, this complex web of interactions over the last 200 years has resulted in the chronic widening of economic and political gaps between the haves and the have-nots with consequential global cultural and ecosystem challenges. At the bottom of these challenges is the issue of resource limitations on our finite planet with increasing population. The problem is further compounded by pleasure-driven and poverty-driven ecological depletion and pollution by the haves and the have-nots respectively. These challenges are explored in this paper as global sustainable development (SD) quantitatively; in order to assess the gaps that need to be bridged. Although there has been significant rhetoric on SD with very many qualitative definitions offered, very few quantitative definitions of SD exist. The few that do exist tend to measure SD in terms of social, energy, economic and environmental dimensions. In our research, we used several human survival, development, and progress variables to create an aggregate SD parameter that describes the capacity of nations in three dimensions: social sustainability, environmental sustainability and technological sustainability. Using our proposed quantitative definition of SD and data from relatively reputable secondary sources, 132 nations were ranked and compared. Our comparisons indicate a global hierarchy of needs among nations similar to Maslow's at the individual level. As in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, nations that are struggling to survive are less concerned with environmental sustainability than advanced and stable nations. Nations such as the United States, Canada, Finland, Norway and others have higher SD capacity, and thus, are higher on their hierarchy of needs than nations such as Nigeria, Vietnam, Mexico and other

  12. Global-local finite element analysis of laminated composites

    OpenAIRE

    Vidussoni, Marco A.

    1988-01-01

    A Global-Local finite element approach was used to investigate the interlaminar stresses in laminated composite plates with a central circular hole. Detailed solutions were sought for the interlaminar normal stress distributions close to the free straight edge of the plate as well as around the edge of the hole. The Global model was analyzed as a two-dimensional problem. The displacements obtained a distance away from the regions of interest in the two-dimensional model were used as imposed b...

  13. Never ending analysis of a century old evolutionary debate: unringing the urmetazoon bell

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd eSchierwater

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of the early evolution of animals will be greatly improved if a final solution can be found to the evolutionary relationships between Porifera, Placozoa, Ctenophora, Cnidaria and Bilateria. There have been many recent attempts to solve this key issue at the base of the metazoan tree of life, and these have sparked heated discussions and highlighted fundamental analytical problems. We argue that solving this problem will necessitate analysis of disparate data types, including phylogenomic data, larger scale genomic characters, developmental data and morphological characters. At the least, morphological and developmental data must be used to cross-validate phylogenomic conclusions, but ideally solutions should be sought to the problems of combining disparate data sources with appropriate character weighting and algorithm choice.

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  15. Maximum-entropy clustering algorithm and its global convergence analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Constructing a batch of differentiable entropy functions touniformly approximate an objective function by means of the maximum-entropy principle, a new clustering algorithm, called maximum-entropy clustering algorithm, is proposed based on optimization theory. This algorithm is a soft generalization of the hard C-means algorithm and possesses global convergence. Its relations with other clustering algorithms are discussed.

  16. The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

    2016-01-01

    In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

  17. A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs. - Highlights: ► Burden sharing of global mitigation efforts should consider equity and efficiency. ► The comparability of allocations across countries is based on four indicators. ► The four indicators are GDP/capita, GHG/GDP, population growth, and GHG trend. ► Any possible agreement on effort comparability needs a combination of indicators. ► We analyse the role played by the degree of flexibility in global carbon trading

  18. Analysis of snow in the 20th and 21st century Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    DéRy, Stephen J.; Wood, Eric F.

    2006-10-01

    We evaluate the representation of the 20th century Northern Hemisphere, North American, and Eurasian snow cover extent, frequency, and mass by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model, version 2 (CM2) and then explore the 21st century trends and changes in these quantities. The CM2 simulations of 20th century climate capture the seasonal cycle in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent and produce a mean annual snow area of 25 × 106 km2 that equals the satellite-based observations for the period 1973-2000. The simulated snow cover frequency and snow mass generally decline from north to south, but longitudinal gradients in these variables are also found. Snow mass over North America, especially during spring, is underestimated by CM2. Simulations of 21st century climate using three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios reveal strong trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, frequency, and mass. These simulations suggest that the annual Northern Hemisphere mean snow cover extent (total snow mass) will decrease by 12 to 26% (20 to 40%) by 2100 from their 21st century mean values. Large declines in 21st century snow cover frequency (up to 50%) and snow mass (up to 100 kg m-2) arise during fall, winter, and spring over southern Canada and the northern United States, the Western Cordillera of North America, and western Eurasia compared to the 20th century CM2 simulations.

  19. X-ray fluorescence and computed radiography analysis of a famous brazilian painting from XIX century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calza, Cristiane; Oliveira, Davi F.; Rocha, Henrique S.; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Instrumentacao Nuclear], e-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br; Pedreira, Andrea [Museu Nacional de Belas Artes, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This work used Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) and Computed Radiography (CR) to evaluate the general conditions of the painting 'Gioventu' (Eliseu Visconti, 1898), identifying possible problems, areas that revealed signs of previous retouchings and the pigments used by the artist. EDXRF measurements were carried out with a portable system consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 {mu}A, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. Several spectra were obtained in each color, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL (IAEA). The results revealed that the drawings were made over a preparatory layer of lead white. Some pigments identified were: yellow, red and brown ochre; umbra; vermilion; cobalt blue; etc. The experimental setup used in the CR analysis consisted of an Oxford X-ray source, operating at 50 kV and 200 {mu}A, placed at 85 cm from the painting, a GE CR 50P portable computed radiography scanner and a Fuji imaging plate detector. The exposure time was 600 s. The radiographic images revealed that the painting was in a good state of conservation and also a complete composition hidden underneath the visible paint layer.(author)

  20. Dynamic and Fatigue Analysis of an 18th Century Steel Arch Bridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the 'Oran-Tlemcen' railway line realization project (159 km), several bridges were built by the Railroads Algerian West Company. 7 km from the east of Tlemcen city, this railway line must cross a very broken mountainous collar, that's why the French engineer 'Gustave Eiffel' was solicited to construct a 68 m length bridge. In 1890, an arch steel truss bridge was realized. The bridge presents 300 m of apron curvature radius and, currently, is considered as one of the most important monuments of the Algerian historical heritage. Considering the age of the bridge and the evolution of the railway loads in time, it was essential to check the good behavior of the studied structure. For that, analyses to verify the physical and mechanical properties of the growth iron members are made. A finite element model of the bridge was built and numerical simulations were drawn. The structural vibration conducted analysis permit to understand the behavior of this particular structure, then to evaluate (in detail) the rate of the structure fatigue

  1. Why Fish Oil Fails: A Comprehensive 21st Century Lipids-Based Physiologic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Peskin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The medical community suffered three significant fish oil failures/setbacks in 2013. Claims that fish oil’s EPA/DHA would stop the progression of heart disease were crushed when The Risk and Prevention Study Collaborative Group (Italy released a conclusive negative finding regarding fish oil for those patients with high risk factors but no previous myocardial infarction. Fish oil failed in all measures of CVD prevention—both primary and secondary. Another major 2013 setback occurred when fish oil’s DHA was shown to significantly increase prostate cancer in men, in particular, high-grade prostate cancer, in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT analysis by Brasky et al. Another monumental failure occurred in 2013 whereby fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to improve macular degeneration. In 2010, fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to help Alzheimer’s victims, even those with low DHA levels. These are by no means isolated failures. The promise of fish oil and its so-called active ingredients EPA / DHA fails time and time again in clinical trials. This lipids-based physiologic review will explain precisely why there should have never been expectation for success. This review will focus on underpublicized lipid science with a focus on physiology.

  2. Training needs for toxicity testing in the 21st century: a survey-informed analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenna, Silvia; Gabbert, Silke; Worth, Andrew

    2012-12-01

    Current training needs on the use of alternative methods in predictive toxicology, including new approaches based on mode-of-action (MoA) and adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concepts, are expected to evolve rapidly. In order to gain insight into stakeholder preferences for training, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) conducted a single-question survey with twelve experts in regulatory agencies, industry, national research organisations, NGOs and consultancies. Stakeholder responses were evaluated by means of theory-based qualitative data analysis. Overall, a set of training topics were identified that relate both to general background information and to guidance for applying alternative testing methods. In particular, for the use of in silico methods, stakeholders emphasised the need for training on data integration and evaluation, in order to increase confidence in applying these methods for regulatory purposes. Although the survey does not claim to offer an exhaustive overview of the training requirements, its findings support the conclusion that the development of well-targeted and tailor-made training opportunities that inform about the usefulness of alternative methods, in particular those that offer practical experience in the application of in silico methods, deserves more attention. This should be complemented by transparent information and guidance on the interpretation of the results generated by these methods and software tools. PMID:23398336

  3. X-ray fluorescence and computed radiography analysis of a famous brazilian painting from XIX century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work used Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) and Computed Radiography (CR) to evaluate the general conditions of the painting 'Gioventu' (Eliseu Visconti, 1898), identifying possible problems, areas that revealed signs of previous retouchings and the pigments used by the artist. EDXRF measurements were carried out with a portable system consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 μA, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. Several spectra were obtained in each color, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL (IAEA). The results revealed that the drawings were made over a preparatory layer of lead white. Some pigments identified were: yellow, red and brown ochre; umbra; vermilion; cobalt blue; etc. The experimental setup used in the CR analysis consisted of an Oxford X-ray source, operating at 50 kV and 200 μA, placed at 85 cm from the painting, a GE CR 50P portable computed radiography scanner and a Fuji imaging plate detector. The exposure time was 600 s. The radiographic images revealed that the painting was in a good state of conservation and also a complete composition hidden underneath the visible paint layer.(author)

  4. A contemporary brand China. An investigation into the development of brand China in the context of global socio-political and cultural influences in the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Xiaoyan

    2009-01-01

    Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war the global economy has begun to shift its centre of gravity towards the East. This, combined with the consolidation of the power of multi-national corporations and banks and the globalisation of markets at virtually all levels, has led to the emergence of massive new global players in terms of markets and production. Despite the fact that China, unlike the Soviet Union, maintained its political system, it has emerged as ...

  5. Transient evolution of the global mode in turbulent swirling jets: experiments and modal stability analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rukes, Lothar; Paschereit, Oliver; Oberleithner, Kilian

    2016-01-01

    Modal linear stability analysis has proven very successful in the analysis of coherent structures of turbulent flows. Formally, it describes the evolution of a disturbance in the limit of infinite time. In this work we apply modal linear stability analysis to a turbulent swirling jet undergoing a control parameter transient. The flow undergoes a transition from a non-vortex breakdown state to a state with a strong recirculation bubble and the associated global mode. High-speed Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements are the basis for a local linear stability analysis of the temporarily evolving base flow. This analysis reveals that the onset of the global mode is strongly linked to the formation of the internal stagnation point. Several transition scenarios are discussed and the ability of a frequency selection criterion to predict the wavemaker location, frequency and growth rate of the global mode are evaluated. We find excellent agreement between the linear global mode frequency and the experimental ...

  6. Raman analysis of complex pigment mixtures in 20th century metal knight shields of the Order of the Elephant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauridsen, Clara Bratt; Sanyova, Jana; Simonsen, Kim Pilkjær

    2015-11-01

    The pigment composition of six painted metal knight shields of the Order of the Elephant dating from the second half of the 20th century belonging to the Danish royal collection were studied using Raman microscopy. By focusing a 785 nm laser with a 50× objective on particles in paint cross sections, it was possible to identify the following 20 compounds: hematite, goethite, chrome red/orange, chrome yellow, zinc chrome yellow, carbon black, toluidine red PR3, chlorinated para red PR4, dinitroaniline orange PO5, phthalocyanine blue PB15, indanthrone blue PB60, ultramarine, Prussian blue, lead white, anatase, rutile, calcium carbonate, barium sulphate, gypsum and dolomite. The components were frequently present in complex pigment mixtures. Additional information was obtained by elemental analysis with scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) to identify cobalt blue, zinc white and cadmium red, as well as to indicate the presence of zinc white in some pigment mixtures. The study allowed a comparison between the industrially applied preparation layers and the artistic paint layers applied by the heraldic painter. Differences in the choice of paint and pigment types were observed on the earliest knight shields, demonstrating a general delay of industrial materials into artist paints. PMID:26023056

  7. Analysis of the effects of the TMI accident on the public health after nearly a quarter of Century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After almost a quarter of century of the accident happened in the nuclear plant of the Three Miles Island (TMI), they continue being published studies that analyze the effects in the population's health that lived in the surroundings of the plant. In this work a review of the studies but outstanding carried out to the date is made, considering with certain detail the made suppositions, the methods used and the obtained results. Since some studies contradict those suppositions, methods and results of the other ones, we seek to make one impartial and objective evaluation of all the analyses to obtain coherent conclusions and without bias. The underlying concepts to the epidemiological studies were revised, making emphasis in those that can introduce some bias. The models that exist on the effect in the health of the population of low dose were also revised. It was also revised the published correspondence in the scientific literature among the different authors, analyzing the different arguments, to decide which are those of more validity. A very important factor at this time is that a lapse has elapsed sufficiently appropriate as to think that the probability of changes in the tendencies of observed cancer diseases it changes. In our analyses it was tried to take into account that the suppositions and methodologies used in the studies were supported by those facts that can be checked by the existent registrations to the date and not by anecdotes or preconceived ideas. Lastly the conclusions of this work of review and analysis are presented. (Author)

  8. The Determination of Children's Knowledge of Global Lunar Patterns from Online Essays Using Text Mining Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Sangno; Smith, Walter; Song, Jaeki; Kim, Yongjin

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use text mining analysis of early adolescents' online essays to determine their knowledge of global lunar patterns. Australian and American students in grades five to seven wrote about global lunar patterns they had discovered by sharing observations with each other via the Internet. These essays were analyzed for…

  9. The Community College and a Rising Global Imaginary: An Analysis of Practical Reasoning, 1950-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, David F.; Palmadessa, Allison L.

    2015-01-01

    Through an analysis of 245 issues of the "Community College Journal" published between 1950 and 2013, we show how three discourses--international understanding and geopolitics, economic competitiveness, and global citizenship--informed practical reasoning about a rising global imaginary and its implications for the community college. By…

  10. Modeling global water use for the 21st century : The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Van Vliet, M. T H; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and wate

  11. Global policy for improvement of oral health in the 21st century--implications to oral health research of World Health Assembly 2007, World Health Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2009-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Oral Health Programme has worked hard over the past 5 years to increase the awareness of oral health worldwide as oral health is important component of general health and quality of life. Meanwhile, oral disease is still a major public health problem in ...

  12. Economic-Social Analysis of Global Illicit Drug Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Salahedin Ghaderi

    2003-01-01

    Political unstability, less respect to the role of law, low life standards and suitable conditions for poppy/coca cultivation, have all affected on growing illicit drug international trafficking. Colombia is the center for global cocaine industry. Colombians had to use ship in the Carribean but now they pass Mexico where the costs are half of using ship. Mexican traffickers permit that the domestic poppy plants turned into herion, Colombian cocaine transited to USA and methamephtamine manufac...

  13. Global Particle Swarm Optimization for High Dimension Numerical Functions Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    J. J. Jamian; Abdullah, M. N.; Mokhlis, H.; M. W. Mustafa; Bakar, A. H. A.

    2014-01-01

    The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) Algorithm is a popular optimization method that is widely used in various applications, due to its simplicity and capability in obtaining optimal results. However, ordinary PSOs may be trapped in the local optimal point, especially in high dimensional problems. To overcome this problem, an efficient Global Particle Swarm Optimization (GPSO) algorithm is proposed in this paper, based on a new updated strategy of the particle position. This is done through ...

  14. Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Borgy, Vladimir; Chojnicki, Xavier; Le Garrec, Gilles; Cyrille SCHWELLNUS

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the mod...

  15. Binding of Similarly Charged Plates: A Global Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Moreira, Andre G.; Netz, Roland R.

    2000-01-01

    Similarly and highly charged plates in the presence of multivalent counter ions attract each other, leading to electrostatically bound states. Using Monte-Carlo simulations we obtain the inter-plate pressure in the global parameter space. The equilibrium plate separation, where the pressure changes from attractive to repulsive, exhibits a novel unbinding transition. A systematic and asymptotically exact strong-coupling field-theory yields the bound state from a competition between counter-ion...

  16. Oil, Oil Volatility and Airline Stocks: A Global Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nandha, Mohan; Brooks, Robert; Robert FAFF

    2013-01-01

    By selecting a globally representative dataset of airline indices, this study demonstrates that oil price or oil price regimes (delineated by the first gulf war and the 9/11 terror attacks) alone do not have any significant implications for airline stock prices. Overall, these findings are contrary to the general perception that higher oil prices or oil volatility are bad news for the airlines industry. Perhaps airlines are in a better position to estimate their oil risk and take hedging posi...

  17. A critical analysis of global sustainability indices / Brian Neville Keeling

    OpenAIRE

    Keeling, Brian Neville

    2013-01-01

    Nation states of the world are driven by socio-economic imperatives that are rapidly degrading the natural resources that sustain life on Earth. This paradox has led to numerous initiatives to better understand and measure sustainability and sustainable development through indices. The primary objective of this research is to critically analyse the plethora of indices developed and used by institutions and organisations globally that have a role to play in measuring the sustain...

  18. Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Quiggin, John

    2009-01-01

    The stabilization of global climate presents one of the most complex problems in public good provision the world has faced. Continuation of ‘business as usual’ policies, leading to warming of more than 2 degrees over the next year, will produce significant damage to agricultural systems and catastrophic damage to the natural ecosystems that ultimately support agriculture. The best solution to the public goods problem is a ‘contract and converge’ agreement in which the ultimate outcome is a co...

  19. Methodological long-term analysis of global bioenergy potential

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Seungwoo; Selosse, Sandrine; Maïzi, Nadia

    2016-01-01

    This report presents the methodology investigated in order to make more suitable and relevant the representation of bioenergy resources in the long term bottom up optimization model, TIAM-FR. Indeed, the current simplified representation is not suitable for distinguish different use for each proper bioenergy source. Furthermore, considering the important role of global bioenergy trade in energy system particularly for projecting future energy system, disaggregation of these resources appears ...

  20. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  1. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasternak, A.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  2. Vertically mounted bifacial photovoltaic modules: A global analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bifacial PV (photovoltaic) modules have recently come to increasing attention and various system designs have been investigated. In this paper, a global comparison is made between vertically mounted bifacial modules facing East–West and conventionally mounted mono-facial modules. An analytical method is used to calculate the radiation received by these two module configurations. It is found that the answer to the question which of these two module configurations performs better strongly depends on three factors: (i) the latitude, (ii) the local diffuse fraction and (iii) the albedo. In a subsequent part of the paper, the minimum albedo required to result in a better performance for vertically mounted bifacial modules is calculated for every place in the world. The calculation is based on measured data of the diffuse light fraction and the results are shown in the form of a global map. Finally, the albedo requirements are compared with the measured global albedo distribution. The calculation allows a distinct decision which module configuration is more suitable for a certain place in the world. The result is also shown as a map defining the corresponding areas. - Highlights: • Vertically mounted bifacial module and conventionally monofacial module are compared. • The key factors affecting the performance of the two configurations are investigated. • Which module configuration is more suitable for each place is shown in a world map. • The minimum albedo for bifacial modules to have a better performance is calculated

  3. ANALYSIS OF AN UNPUBLISHED TREATISE OF AN 18TH CENTURY ENGINEER, ANTOINE D’ALLEMAN (1679-1760)

    OpenAIRE

    Fleury, François; Duprat, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    Military culture has occupied a central place in the constitution of constructive knowledge amongst the French intellectual elite since the beginning of the 17th century. The royal engineers , whose trade is rapidly institutionalized and developing in the 17th and 18th centuries, are important agents and vectors of this complex of practical knowledge backed by geometry, mathematics and the new physics. Despite the recent scientific advances in structural mechanics and strength of materials, i...

  4. A Holistic View of Global Croplands and Their Water Use for Ensuring Global Food Security in the 21st Century through Advanced Remote Sensing and Non-remote Sensing Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Venkateswarlu Dheeravath; Hanjra, Munir A.; Prasad S. Thenkabail; Muralikrishna Gumma

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an exhaustive review of global croplands and their water use, for the end of last millennium, mapped using remote sensing and non-remote sensing approaches by world’s leading researchers on the subject. A comparison at country scale of global cropland area estimated by these studies had a high R2-value of 0.89–0.94. The global cropland area estimates amongst different studies are quite close and range between 1.47–1.53 billion hectares. However, significant uncertainties e...

  5. A Geometrical Formulation of the Renormalization Group Method for Global Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kunihiro, Teiji

    1995-01-01

    On the basis of the classical theory of envelopes, we formulate the renormalization group (RG) method for global analysis, recently proposed by Goldenfeld et al. It is clarified why the RG equation improves things.

  6. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  7. A geometrical formulation of the renormalization group method for global analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kunihiro, T

    1995-01-01

    On the basis of the classical theory of envelope,we formulate the renormalization group (RG) method for global analysis, recently proposed by Goldenfeld et al. It is clarified why the RG equation improves things.

  8. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  9. Smoothing spline analysis of variance approach for global sensitivity analysis of computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper investigates a nonparametric regression method based on smoothing spline analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach to address the problem of global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of complex and computationally demanding computer codes. The two steps algorithm of this method involves an estimation procedure and a variable selection. The latter can become computationally demanding when dealing with high dimensional problems. Thus, we proposed a new algorithm based on Landweber iterations. Using the fact that the considered regression method is based on ANOVA decomposition, we introduced a new direct method for computing sensitivity indices. Numerical tests performed on several analytical examples and on an application from petroleum reservoir engineering showed that the method gives competitive results compared to a more standard Gaussian process approach

  10. CROSS-CULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND GLOBAL ORGANIZATIONS: “The dilemma of a 21st century manager” : Case study of Statoil in Norway)

    OpenAIRE

    MWANGO, MUTALE

    2010-01-01

    This study is concerned with the language problem that springs up at Statoil when the forces of globalization encounter the local. It examines some factors that may explain why the local employees prefer Norwegian to English language even when the company has made it clear that the official language of communication is English. Furthermore, the study discusses how Statoil can use cultural diversity to its advantage.The theoretical and analytical frameworks consist of a knowledge management pe...

  11. Modeling global water use for the 21st century : The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Y.; M. Flörke; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; Vliet, M.T.H.; Yillia, P.; C. Ringler; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustaina...

  12. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  13. Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  14. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA’S AND CHINA’S PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir E. Petrovskiy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the comparative analysis of Russian and Chinese participation in the current system of global governance, and in its reform. The author views participation of the respective countries in the system of global governance as part of their foreign policy and foreign policy strategy. He shows common and distinctive features of conceptual and practical approaches towards global governance defined by specific features of Russia’s and China’s history, economic development, political culture and traditions. Based on this comparative analysis, the author speculates on the future trends of participation of the two countries in the global governance system, in the spheres of global economy and international security, and on the future trends of their policy coordination in these respective areas.

  15. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  16. Integration and global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data for studying macromolecular interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brautigam, Chad A; Zhao, Huaying; Vargas, Carolyn; Keller, Sandro; Schuck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a powerful and widely used method to measure the energetics of macromolecular interactions by recording a thermogram of differential heating power during a titration. However, traditional ITC analysis is limited by stochastic thermogram noise and by the limited information content of a single titration experiment. Here we present a protocol for bias-free thermogram integration based on automated shape analysis of the injection peaks, followed by combination of isotherms from different calorimetric titration experiments into a global analysis, statistical analysis of binding parameters and graphical presentation of the results. This is performed using the integrated public-domain software packages NITPIC, SEDPHAT and GUSSI. The recently developed low-noise thermogram integration approach and global analysis allow for more precise parameter estimates and more reliable quantification of multisite and multicomponent cooperative and competitive interactions. Titration experiments typically take 1-2.5 h each, and global analysis usually takes 10-20 min. PMID:27055097

  17. Pedagogical Implementation of 21st Century Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson-Lundeberg, Vera

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines students' perceptions of how intentionally taught 21st century skills have transformed their lives. Personal development education (PDE) encompasses interpersonal and interaction skills that are required for students to function and succeed in global-oriented 21st century colleges and careers. The Common Core State Standards…

  18. Technological Strategy of using Global Positioning System: An Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.S.S.Riaz Ahamed

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The Global Positioning System (GPS is a U.S. space-based radionavigation system that provides reliable positioning, navigation, and timing services to civilian users on a continuous worldwide basis -- freely available to all. GPS provides specially coded satellite signals that can be processed in a GPS receiver, enabling the receiver to compute position, velocity and time. Basically GPS works by using four GPS satellite signals to compute positions in three dimensions (and the time offset in the receiver clock. GPS provides accurate location and time information for an unlimited number of people in all weather, day and night, anywhere in the world. Anyone who needs to keep track of where he or she is, to find his or her way to a specified location, or know what direction and how fast he or she is going can utilize the benefits of the global positioning system. Everyday activities such as banking, mobile phone operations, and even the control of power grids, are facilitated by the accurate timing provided by GPS.

  19. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Corzo Perez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change phenomena have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analyses of extremes is an important topic that requires the adaptation of methods used for river basin and regional scale models. This paper presents two methodologies that extend the tools to analyze spatio-temporal drought development and characteristics using large scale gridded time series of hydrometeorological data. The methodologies are distinguished and defined as non-contiguous and contiguous drought area analyses (i.e. NCDA and CDA. The NCDA presents time series of percentages of areas in drought at the global scale and for pre-defined regions of known hydroclimatology. The CDA is introduced as a complementary method that generates information on the spatial coherence of drought events at the global scale. Spatial drought events are found through CDA by clustering patterns (contiguous areas. In this study the global hydrological model WaterGAP was used to illustrate the methodology development. Global gridded time series (resolution 0.5° simulated with the WaterGAP model from land points were used. The NCDA and CDA were applied to identify drought events in subsurface runoff. The percentages of area in drought calculated with both methods show complementary information on the spatial and temporal events for the last decades of the 20th century. The NCDA provides relevant information on the average number of droughts, duration and severity (deficit volume for pre-defined regions (globe, 2 selected climate regions. Additionally, the CDA provides information on the number of spatially linked areas in drought as well as their geographic location on the globe. An explorative validation process shows that the NCDA results capture the overall spatio-temporal drought extremes over the last decades of the 20th century. Events like the El Niño Southern

  20. ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA‟S FOREIGN POLICY IN THE CHINESE DIRECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihui Zou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the analysis of Russian foreign policy in the Chinese direction at the beginning of the XXI century. Nowadays, rise of the eastern regions deepening of integration into the political and economic space of the Pacific Rim countries and development of internal cooperation, especially with the People's Republic of China (PRC are on current interest for Russia‟s development. Since 2000 to the present time there is development of bilateral relations, cultural and humanitarian contacts and exchanges, more intensive cooperation in education, culture, health, sports, tourism, media, film industry, archives on the basis of the Russian Federation Foreign Policy Concept, the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, friendship and cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China and other normative legal documents. It is noted that the parties have expressed their intention to continue increasing comprehensive cooperation and enhancing mutual support in protecting national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of each other, maintenance of international peace and stability and building a new, more just, sustainable and democratic world order. An important component of the Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation is mutual support in the fundamental interests of both countries concerning with the issues of state sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. The Russian side confirms strong support for the principled ground of the Chinese government on the Taiwan issues, Tibet and Xinjiang, the Chinese policy in the protection of the national unity and territorial integrity of China. At the same time, the People's Republic reaffirms its support for protecting Russia‟s fundamental interests and promoting regional peace and stability in the Caucasus region and in the CIS. The article shows the view of Chinese scholars, political scientists on the problems of cooperation between China and Russia.

  1. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF KOI-977: SPECTROSCOPY, ASTEROSEISMOLOGY, AND PHASE-CURVE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirano, Teruyuki; Sato, Bun' ei; Kobayashi, Atsushi [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Masuda, Kento [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Benomar, Othman [Department of Astronomy, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Takeda, Yoichi; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki, E-mail: hirano@geo.titech.ac.jp [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2015-01-20

    We present a global analysis of KOI-977, one of the planet host candidates detected by Kepler. The Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) reports that KOI-977 is a red giant, for which few close-in planets have been discovered. Our global analysis involves spectroscopic and asteroseismic determinations of stellar parameters (e.g., mass and radius) and radial velocity (RV) measurements. Our analyses reveal that KOI-977 is indeed a red giant, possibly in the red clump, but its estimated radius (≳ 20 R {sub ☉} = 0.093 AU) is much larger than KOI-977.01's orbital distance (∼0.027 AU) estimated from its period (P {sub orb} ∼ 1.35 days) and host star's mass. RV measurements show a small variation, which also contradicts the amplitude of ellipsoidal variations seen in the light curve folded with KOI-977.01's period. Therefore, we conclude that KOI-977.01 is a false positive, meaning that the red giant, for which we measured the radius and RVs, is different from the object that produces the transit-like signal (i.e., an eclipsing binary). On the basis of this assumption, we also perform a light curve analysis including the modeling of transits/eclipses and phase-curve variations, adopting various values for the dilution factor D, which is defined as the flux ratio between the red giant and eclipsing binary. Fitting the whole folded light curve as well as individual transits in the short cadence data simultaneously, we find that the estimated mass and radius ratios of the eclipsing binary are consistent with those of a solar-type star and a late-type star (e.g., an M dwarf) for D ≳ 20.

  2. GLOBAL ANALYSIS OF KOI-977: SPECTROSCOPY, ASTEROSEISMOLOGY, AND PHASE-CURVE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a global analysis of KOI-977, one of the planet host candidates detected by Kepler. The Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) reports that KOI-977 is a red giant, for which few close-in planets have been discovered. Our global analysis involves spectroscopic and asteroseismic determinations of stellar parameters (e.g., mass and radius) and radial velocity (RV) measurements. Our analyses reveal that KOI-977 is indeed a red giant, possibly in the red clump, but its estimated radius (≳ 20 R ☉ = 0.093 AU) is much larger than KOI-977.01's orbital distance (∼0.027 AU) estimated from its period (P orb ∼ 1.35 days) and host star's mass. RV measurements show a small variation, which also contradicts the amplitude of ellipsoidal variations seen in the light curve folded with KOI-977.01's period. Therefore, we conclude that KOI-977.01 is a false positive, meaning that the red giant, for which we measured the radius and RVs, is different from the object that produces the transit-like signal (i.e., an eclipsing binary). On the basis of this assumption, we also perform a light curve analysis including the modeling of transits/eclipses and phase-curve variations, adopting various values for the dilution factor D, which is defined as the flux ratio between the red giant and eclipsing binary. Fitting the whole folded light curve as well as individual transits in the short cadence data simultaneously, we find that the estimated mass and radius ratios of the eclipsing binary are consistent with those of a solar-type star and a late-type star (e.g., an M dwarf) for D ≳ 20

  3. Is Global Cooling Process Real or Not?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two years ago (2006) at the ECRS in Lisbon the physical mechanism of global change of climate was presented. Since two years elapsed and new data on global temperature changes in the boundary air layer were presented in Internet. The analysis of all values including new ones is made and it is shown that from the beginning of the 21-st century till now the increase of is not observed. (authors)

  4. Challenges to improvement of oral health in the 21st century--the approach of the WHO Global Oral Health Programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2004-01-01

    Chronic diseases and injuries are overtaking communicable diseases as the leading health problems in all but a few parts of the world. This rapidly changing global disease pattern is closely linked to changing lifestyles, which include diets rich in sugars, widespread use of tobacco and increased...... consumption of alcohol. These lifestyle factors also significantly impact on oral health, and oral diseases qualify as major public health problems owing to their high prevalence and incidence in all regions of the world. Like all diseases, they affect primarily the disadvantaged and socially marginalised...

  5. Comparative Analysis of Dayside Reconnection Models in Global Magnetosphere Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Komar, C M; Cassak, P A

    2015-01-01

    We test and compare a number of existing models predicting the location of magnetic reconnection at Earth's dayside magnetopause for various solar wind conditions. We employ robust image processing techniques to determine the locations where each model predicts reconnection to occur. The predictions are then compared to the magnetic separators, the magnetic field lines separating different magnetic topologies. The predictions are tested in distinct high-resolution simulations with interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angles ranging from 30 to 165 degrees in global magnetohydrodynamic simulations using the three-dimensional Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code with a uniform resistivity, although the described techniques can be generally applied to any self-consistent magnetosphere code. Additional simulations are carried out to test location model dependence on IMF strength and dipole tilt. We find that most of the models match large portions of the magnetic separators wh...

  6. Global sensitivity analysis in control-augmented structural synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloebaum, Christina L.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated approach to structural/control design is proposed in which variables in both the passive (structural) and active (control) disciplines of an optimization process are changed simultaneously. The global sensitivity equation (GSE) method of Sobieszczanski-Sobieski (1988) is used to obtain the behavior sensitivity derivatives necessary for the linear approximations used in the parallel multidisciplinary synthesis problem. The GSE allows for the decoupling of large systems into smaller subsystems and thus makes it possible to determine the local sensitivities of each subsystem's outputs to its inputs and parameters. The advantages in using the GSE method are demonstrated using a finite-element representation of a truss structure equipped with active lateral displacement controllers, which is undergoing forced vibration.

  7. Effective Field Theory of Dark Matter: a Global Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Liem, Sebastian; Calore, Francesca; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Tait, Tim M P; Trotta, Roberto; Weniger, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    We present global fits of an effective field theory description of real, and complex scalar dark matter candidates. We simultaneously take into account all possible dimension 6 operators consisting of dark matter bilinears and gauge invariant combinations of quark and gluon fields. We derive constraints on the free model parameters for both the real (five parameters) and complex (seven) scalar dark matter models obtained by combining Planck data on the cosmic microwave background, direct detection limits from LUX, and indirect detection limits from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. We find that for real scalars indirect dark matter searches disfavour a dark matter particle mass below 100 GeV. For the complex scalar dark matter particle current data have a limited impact due to the presence of operators that lead to p-wave annihilation, and also do not contribute to the spin-independent scattering cross- section. Although current data are not informative enough to strongly constrain the theory parameter space, w...

  8. Performance analysis of tracked panel according to predicted global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, the performance of a south facing single-axis tracked panel was analyzed according to global radiation predicted by empirical model. Mathematic expressions appropriate for single-axis tracking system were derived to calculate the radiation on it. Instantaneous increments of solar energy collected by the tracked panel relative to fixed panel are illustrated. The validity of the empirical model to Taiwan area will also be examined with the actual irradiation data observed in Taipei. The results are summarized as follows: the gains made by the tracked panel relative to a fixed panel are between 20.0% and 33.9% for four specified days of year, between 20.9% and 33.2% for the four seasons and 27.6% over the entire year. For latitudes below 65 deg., the yearly optimal tilt angle of a fixed panel is close to 0.8 times latitude, the irradiation ratio of the tracked panel to the fixed panel is about 1.3, which are smaller than the corresponding values calculated from extraterrestrial radiation, suggesting us that the installation angle should be adjusted toward a flatter angle and that the gain of the tracked panel will reduce while it works in cloudy climate or in air pollution environment. Although the captured radiation increases with the maximal rotation angle of panel, but the benefit on the global radiation case is still not so good as that on extraterrestrial radiation case. The irradiation data observed is much less than the data predicted by the empirical model, however the trend of fitting curve to the observed data is somewhat in agreement with that to the predicted one; the yearly gain is 14.3% when a tracked panel is employed throughout the year.

  9. Global and local - air pollution abatement in the 21st century. Seminar No. 14 of Zentrale Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern; Global und Lokal - Klimaschutz fuer das 21. Jahrhundert. Seminarband der Zentralen Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern. Bd. 14

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koller, U.; Behling, G.; Rauh, K.; Haury, H.J. (comps.)

    1999-08-01

    Scientists of Germany's major climate research institutes and an expert of the world climate research programme presented current information on climate trends. They informed on the results of international efforts to prevent global warming after the Buenos Aires conference and presented global climate scenarios of the future. Further issues were local air pollution abatement (energy management, thermal insulation), communal air pollution abatement concepts, and state funding in Bavaria and elsewhere. [German] Wissenschaftler aus den bedeutendsten Instituten deutscher Klimaforschung sowie ein Vertreter des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms stellten aktuelle Erkenntnisse zur Entwicklung unseres Klimas vor. Sie informierten ueber Ergebnisse internationaler Klimaschutzpolitik nach der Klimakonferenz in Buenos Aires und praesentierten Szenarien fuer das globale Klima der Zukunft. Sie widmeten sich ausserdem Fragen des lokalen Klimaschutzes unter den Aspekten Energiemanagement, Waermeschutz und diskutierten ueber kommunale Klimaschutzkonzepte sowie Foerdermoeglichkeiten in und ausserhalb Bayerns. (orig.)

  10. Multi-temporal analysis of energetic fluxes in the Maremma (Italy landscape between XIX and XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santoro A

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Using the energy flow account and the input/output analysis is possible to assess the “energetic sustainability” of landscape, in order to define policies as well as planning and management tools of the rural territory. The study area is the municipality of Castagneto Carducci, located on the Tuscan coastline, in the Leghorn district. The area, 14.000 hectares wide, is characterized by wooded hills in the inner part, a narrow dunal band along the coastline with mixed pine woods, and a flat area in the middle where all the major infrastructures and agricultural activities are located. The economy is based on tourism and on high quality wine production. The energy balance is not only referred to the present situation, but we have carried out the balances for the years 1832 and 1954, in order to assess the energy use evolution through the last 180 years, according to a multitemporal methodology develop for monitoring the dynamics of Tuscan landscape The energy balances examine all the energy flows result from the various activities in agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry. The study area must be considered as a close system, and we have to value the energy flows between the inside and the outside of this system, and how this energy is used inside of it. The three periods show different landscapes, due to the different socio-economic situation. In 1832 we find a traditional agricultural structure, based on large estate and on mezzadria management; in 1954 the mezzadria gives way to the diffusion of industrial agriculture and animal husbandry, while olive orchards became one of the main elements of the landscape. From the ’70s we attend at the proliferation of vineyards, and in few years Castagneto will become the area where some of the best Italian wines are produced (Sassicaia, Ornellaia. The wooded areas have undergone a dramatic change in their spatial location, specific composition, density and structure, but the extension remains the

  11. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Lijian

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  12. Analysis of pathfinder SST algorithm for global and regional conditions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ajoy Kumar; P Minnett; G Podesta; R Evans; K Kilpatrick

    2000-12-01

    As part of the Pathfinder program developed jointly by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) a large database of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) measurements coincident with satellite data is now available to the user community. The Pathfinder Matchup Database (PMDB) is a multi-year, multi-satellite collection of coincident measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and broadly distributed buoy data (matchups). This database allows the user community to test and validate new SST algorithms to improve the present accuracy of surface temperature measurements from satellites. In this paper we investigate the performance of a global Pathfinder algorithm to specific regional conditions. It is shown that for zenith angles less than 45°, the best-expected statistical discrepancy between satellite and buoy data is about ∼0.5 K. In general, the bias of the residuals (satellite - buoy) is negative in most regions, except in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas, where the residuals are always positive. A seasonal signal in SST residuals is observed in all regions and is strongest in the Indian Ocean. The channel-difference term used as a proxy for atmospheric water vapor correction is observed to be unresponsive for columnar water vapor values greater than 45 mm and high zenith angles. This unresponsiveness of the channels leads to underestimation of sea surface temperature from satellites in these conditions.

  13. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  14. Global analysis of neuronal phosphoproteome regulation by chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panpan Yu

    Full Text Available Chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans (CSPGs are major components of the extracellular matrix which mediate inhibition of axonal regeneration after injury to the central nervous system (CNS. Several neuronal receptors for CSPGs have recently been identified; however, the signaling pathways by which CSPGs restrict axonal growth are still largely unknown. In this study, we applied quantitative phosphoproteomics to investigate the global changes in protein phosphorylation induced by CSPGs in primary neurons. In combination with isobaric Tags for Relative and Absolute Quantitation (iTRAQ labeling, strong cation exchange chromatography (SCX fractionation, immobilized metal affinity chromatography (IMAC and LC-MS/MS, we identified and quantified 2214 unique phosphopeptides corresponding to 1118 phosphoproteins, with 118 changing significantly in abundance with CSPG treatment. The proteins that were regulated by CSPGs included key components of synaptic vesicle trafficking, axon guidance mediated by semaphorins, integrin signaling, cadherin signaling and EGF receptor signaling pathways. A significant number of the regulated proteins are cytoskeletal and related proteins that have been implicated in regulating neurite growth. Another highly represented protein category regulated by CSPGs is nucleic acid binding proteins involved in RNA post-transcriptional regulation. Together, by screening the overall phosphoproteome changes induced by CSPGs, this data expand our understanding of CSPG signaling, which provides new insights into development of strategies for overcoming CSPG inhibition and promoting axonal regeneration after CNS injury.

  15. Next step tokamak physics: Confinement-oriented global database analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We describe and analyse an international multi-tokamak confinement database, both motivated by physics and with a view toward prediction of next-step burning-plasma experiments such as ITER. Significant additional ohmic and L-mode data have been assembled from several tokamaks, which has resulted in the 'ITERL.DB2' dataset. Simple density-roll-over scalings are presented for ohmic confinement. For H-mode, the confinement time in the essentially enlarged data set ITERH.DB3 is compared with the ITERH-98P(y,2) reference scaling. A distinction is made between discharges with and without heavy gaspuff. Beyond a standard power-law scaling, the empirical 'influence' on confinement of q95=qcyl, directly related to triangularity, and of the global density peaking factor (for L- and H-mode) is quantified. A log-linear quadratic formula is given which describes physically more precisely than ITERH-98P(y,2) the relation between the isotope effect and the heating power degradation of confinement, while predicting a similar thermal confinement time for ITER (τE,th≅3:5 s.). Based on a recently provided plasma edge dataset, 'E.1', separate scalings of the plasma core and pedestal energy are derived. Finally, a class of nonlinear scalings is discussed which are suitable, in contrast to offset (non-)linear models, to fit roll-over dependence, and, simultaneously, the scaling of L-mode and H-mode confinement. (author)

  16. Economic-Social Analysis of Global Illicit Drug Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salahedin Ghaderi

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Political unstability, less respect to the role of law, low life standards and suitable conditions for poppy/coca cultivation, have all affected on growing illicit drug international trafficking. Colombia is the center for global cocaine industry. Colombians had to use ship in the Carribean but now they pass Mexico where the costs are half of using ship. Mexican traffickers permit that the domestic poppy plants turned into herion, Colombian cocaine transited to USA and methamephtamine manufactured and distributed. Golden triangle in southeast Asia is one of the major regions for opium poppy cultivation. This region has seen many guerrilla warfare for selling illicit drugs especially in Myanmar. Manufactured hroin is usually dealt in Thailand. Golden Crescent region in southwest Asia has a suitable climate for opium poppy cultivation which provides necessay money for purchasing needed weapons by rival groups in northwestern border provinces of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nigeria is one of the main centers for transporting heroin from Golden Crescent and cocaine from Brazil. Dominics run cocaine trade in New York and New England and Afro-American criminal organizations conduct heroin trading in big cities such as New york, Detroit, Chicago, Phila Delphia and Washington. Street trading of illicit drugs is mainly done by cultural or commanding gangs. Illicit drug traffickers apply many methods to laundering their profits including money exchange, smurfs, electronic transferring, and faced firms (the firms that are only registered.

  17. Global diversity patterns in sandy beach macrofauna: a biogeographic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafael Barboza, Francisco; Defeo, Omar

    2015-09-01

    Unlike the advances generated on land, the knowledge of global diversity patterns in marine ecosystems is limited to a small number of studies. For sandy beaches, which dominate the world’s ocean shores, previous meta-analyses highlighted the role of beach morphodynamics in explaining species richness patterns. Oceanographic variables and historical processes have not been considered, even though they could be main predictors of community structure. Our work, based on 256 sandy beaches around the world, analysed species richness considering for the first time temperature, salinity and primary productivity. Biogeographic units (realms, provinces and ecoregions) were used to incorporate historical factors in modelling processes. Ecoregions, which implicitly include isolation and coastal complexity among other historical geographic factors, best represented trends in species richness worldwide. Temperature was a main predictor of species richness, which increased from temperate to tropical sandy beaches. Species richness increased with tide range and towards wide beaches with gentle slopes and fine grains, which is consistent with the hypothesis that habitat availability has an important role in structuring sandy beach communities. The role of temperature and habitat availability suggests that ocean warming and sea level rise could affect the distribution of obligate species living in these narrow ecosystems.

  18. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  19. Multisteps Global Kinetic Analysis of MSW Slow Pyrolysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Aries Himawanto

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to find relationships between single components slow pyrolysis characteristics and mixed component slow pyrolysis characteristics of segregated municipal solid wastes (MSW. The material of this research consists of organic wastes (bamboo wastes and banana leaves wastes and inorganic wastes (styrofoam wastes and snack wrapping wastes. The materials which used to study were the unprosessing waste. The samples were collected, dried and crushed until passing 20 mesh shieves then characterized in self manufactured macro balance. The thermogravimetry analyses were done to find the MSW slow pyrolysis characteristics. The 20 gram sample was placed in the furnace whose temperature is increased with 10 0C/min heating rate until reached 400 0 final temperature and held for 30 minutes before the sample is cooled into room temperature. One hundred ml/min nitrogen introduced from the bottom of furnace as a swept gas. The results of the research show that the global kinetic method could be used to predict the MSW single component activation energy but it should be modified to calculate the mixed sample activation energy . The predictive activation energy values which calculated based on weighed sum of single component have 18.5 % deviations if compared with experimental result.

  20. Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100. PMID:26572897

  1. The Anti-American Century?*

    OpenAIRE

    Krastev, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    The twentieth century was “the American century.” championing democracy and capitalism, the United States won the cold War and emerged as the only global superpower— not only in military, but also in economic, technological, and even cultural terms. The widening currency of the English language and the continued desire of millions around the world to emigrate to the united States underlined the reality of U.S. predominance. The future, it was said, looked like a country, and that country was ...

  2. Global/local stress analysis of composite structures. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Jonathan B.

    1989-01-01

    A method for performing a global/local stress analysis is described and its capabilities are demonstrated. The method employs spline interpolation functions which satisfy the linear plate bending equation to determine displacements and rotations from a global model which are used as boundary conditions for the local model. Then, the local model is analyzed independent of the global model of the structure. This approach can be used to determine local, detailed stress states for specific structural regions using independent, refined local models which exploit information from less-refined global models. The method presented is not restricted to having a priori knowledge of the location of the regions requiring local detailed stress analysis. This approach also reduces the computational effort necessary to obtain the detailed stress state. Criteria for applying the method are developed. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated using a classical stress concentration problem and a graphite-epoxy blade-stiffened panel with a discontinuous stiffener.

  3. Gated spect (GASPECT) for analysis of global and regional left ventricular function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eilles, C.

    1988-04-01

    GASPECT enables a quantitative analysis of global and regional left ventricular function. Comparisons with the procedures of thermodilution and cineangiography showed excellent correlations in the measurement of absolute left ventricular volumes. The extent of regional contraction abnormalities in patients with myocardial infarction can be quantified by GASPECT and newly developed method for regional wall motion analysis.

  4. Analysis and Improvement of TCP Congestion Control Mechanism Based on Global Optimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Network flow control is formulated as a global optimization problem of user profit. A general global optimization flow control model is established. This model combined with the stochastic model of TCP is used to study the global rate allocation characteristic of TCP. Analysis shows when active queue manage ment is used in network TCP rates tend to be allocated to maximize the aggregate of a user utility function Us (called Us fairness). The TCP throughput formula is derived. An improved TCP congestion control mecha nism is proposed. Simulations show its throughput is TCP friendly when competing with existing TCP and its rate change is smoother. Therefore, it is suitable to carry multimedia applications.

  5. Trade Liberalisation and Climate Change: A CGE Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalisation as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an ex...

  6. Weak boson production from D0 and LHCb in the NNPDF global analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rojo, Juan

    2016-01-01

    High-precision electroweak production measurements from the Tevatron and the LHC provide important constraints on the quark flavor separation in global PDF fits. In this contribution, we study the impact of the recent D0 W asymmetry measurements and of the LHCb W and Z Run I combination in the global NNPDF analysis. We find that these measurements can be described by NLO QCD theory and that they lead to a significant reduction of PDF uncertainties.

  7. A bibliometric analysis of the global branding literature and a research agenda

    OpenAIRE

    Brian R Chabowski; Saeed Samiee; G Tomas M Hult

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the citations used in the global branding literature (GBL), and evaluates the knowledge structure of this area of research to date. Our bibliometric analysis involves an examination of 120 global branding articles in business-related research. We employ multidimensional scaling to reveal a range of intellectual influences that have helped shape the GBL. The foundation of knowledge in the GBL is uncovered by analyzing co-citation data to identify important topical influence...

  8. Strategic Analysis Of Innovation-Based Competitiveness In The Global Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Irina Taranenko

    2013-01-01

    In the context of a sustainable development of national economy under the globalization, the innovation-based competitiveness becomes an effective instrument for achieving strategic goals at macro-level. The strategic analysis of innovation-based competitiveness determinants is an important condition of creation an up-to-date national economy model at globalized highly competitive environment. The main purpose of research is to give more specific understanding of innovation competitiveness po...

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  10. Flexible Global Software Development (GSD): Antecedents of Success in Requirements Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vanita Yadav; Monica Adya; Varadharajan Sridhar; Dhruv Nath

    2009-01-01

    Globalization of software development has resulted in a rapid shift away from the traditional collocated, on-site development model, to the offshoring model. Emerging trends indicate an increasing interest in offshoring even in early phases like requirements analysis. Additionally, the flexibility offered by the agile development approach makes it attractive for adaptation in globally distributed software work. A question of significance then is what impacts the success of offshoring earlier ...

  11. Analysis of a global database containing tritium in precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Rabun, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Heath, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

    2016-02-17

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) directed the collection of tritium in water samples from the mid-1950s to 2009. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data examined the airborne movement of isotope releases to the environment, with an objective of collecting spatial data on the isotope content of precipitation across the globe. The initial motivation was to monitor atmospheric thermonuclear test fallout through tritium, deuterium, and oxygen isotope concentrations, but after the 1970s the focus changed to being an observation network of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope data for hydrologic studies. The GNIP database provides a wealth of tritium data collections over a long period of time. The work performed here primarily examined data features in the past 30 years (after much of the effects of above-ground nuclear testing in the late 1950s to early 1960s decayed away), revealing potentially unknown tritium sources. The available data at GNIP were reorganized to allow for evaluation of trends in the data both temporally and spatially. Several interesting cases were revealed, including relatively high measured concentrations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Russia, Norway, as well as an increase in background concentration at a collector in South Korea after 2004. Recent data from stations in the southeastern United States nearest to the Savannah River Site do not indicate any high values. Meteorological impacts have not been considered in this study. Further research to assess the likely source location of interesting cases using transport simulations and/or literature searches is warranted.

  12. An analysis of global aerosol type as retrieved by MISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Ralph A.; Gaitley, Barbara J.

    2015-05-01

    In addition to aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol type is required globally for climate forcing calculations, constraining aerosol transport models and other applications. However, validating satellite aerosol-type retrievals is more challenging than testing AOD results, because aerosol type is a more complex quantity, and ground truth data are far less numerous and generally not as robust. We evaluate the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) Version 22 aerosol-type retrievals by assessing product self-consistency on a regional basis and by making comparisons with general expectation and with the Aerosol Robotic Network aerosol-type climatology, as available. The results confirm and add detail to the observation that aerosol-type discrimination improves dramatically where midvisible AOD exceeds about 0.15 or 0.2. When the aerosol-type information content of the observations is relatively low, increased scattering-angle range improves particle-type sensitivity. The MISR standard, operational product discriminates among small, medium, and large particles and exhibits qualitative sensitivity to single-scattering albedo (SSA) under good aerosol-type retrieval conditions, providing a categorical aerosol-type classification. MISR Ångström exponent deviates systematically from ground truth where particle types missing from the algorithm climatology are present, or where cloud contamination is likely to occur, and SSA tends to be overestimated where absorbing particles are found. We determined that the number of mixtures passing the algorithm acceptance criteria (#SuccMix) represents aerosol-type retrieval quality effectively, providing a useful aerosol-type quality flag.

  13. The glass furnace of the 17th Century of Sa Gerreria (Palma, Mallorca): Historical context and preliminary analysis of the materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper the materials of the glass furnace of Sa Gerreria (Palma) dated in the second half of the 17th Century A.D. are analysed. On the one hand, we discuss the available information regarding this glass workshop as well as the raw material management strategies made during the studied period. On the other hand, we focus on the materials produced by this workshop and we carry out a preliminary archaeometrical analysis of the glass lumps, frits and slags recovered as well as some glass pieces by means of scanning electron microscope and X-ray dispersive energy. The final aim is to characterise the chemical composition and the properties of the raw materials used in this workshop as well as to approach some of the technical processes put in practice by the glass makers who inhabited Mallorca during the 17th Century. (Author)

  14. AN ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGIES OF RURAL FOUNDRIES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURY IN THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Baillargeon

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The business model and strategic position of Quebec's rural foundries at the beginning of the 20th century is virtually unknown. Inferences have been made based on pictorial and oral data sources. This data reveals that successful rural foundries were, in essence, confined to producing and selling agricultural tools to local farmers on an as-needed basis, because large urban foundries were already mass-producing domestic and industrial objects. In contrast, use of detailed accounting records and advertising publications of three rural foundries over the 1900 to 1914 period provides a clearer picture of the production and of the clientele of those rural foundries. Analysis of these sources suggests that the strategic business model of rural foundries was much more elaborate than the existing literature posits. Rural owner-managers of the early 20th century were sophisticated strategists, marketers, and operators.

  15. Visualization and analysis of eddies in a global ocean simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Sean J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hecht, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Petersen, Mark [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Strelitz, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maltrud, Mathew E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlawitschka, Mario [UC DAVIS; Hamann, Bernd [UC DAVIS

    2010-10-15

    Eddies at a scale of approximately one hundred kilometers have been shown to be surprisingly important to understanding large-scale transport of heat and nutrients in the ocean. Due to difficulties in observing the ocean directly, the behavior of eddies below the surface is not very well understood. To fill this gap, we employ a high-resolution simulation of the ocean developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Using large-scale parallel visualization and analysis tools, we produce three-dimensional images of ocean eddies, and also generate a census of eddy distribution and shape averaged over multiple simulation time steps, resulting in a world map of eddy characteristics. As expected from observational studies, our census reveals a higher concentration of eddies at the mid-latitudes than the equator. Our analysis further shows that mid-latitude eddies are thicker, within a range of 1000-2000m, while equatorial eddies are less than 100m thick.

  16. Exchange Rate Market Sentiment Analysis of Major Global Currencies

    OpenAIRE

    K.S. Madhava Rao; Anjana Ramachandran

    2014-01-01

    The paper deals with the analysis of market sentiments in exchange rates which are of great interest to trading individuals and institutional investors. For example, an institutional investor or a trading individual makes better investments and minimizes losses when equipped with an understanding of market sentiments in weekly or monthly exchange returns. In the approach suggested here, a typical market sentiment is defined on the basis of the certain function of the mean ...

  17. THE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS DURING 2011 - 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina BÂLDAN; Radu VASILICĂ

    2013-01-01

    The increasing competitiveness has become in recent years an important coordinate of the socio-economic development strategies in most countries of the world, especially in the most developed ones, of the sectoral development strategies within the national economies, as well as of the business strategies. This paper presents an analysis of the competitiveness indices of several countries, including Romania and it is based on data provided by "The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2012-2013". "Th...

  18. World-Systems Analysis, Globalization, and Incorporated Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Phillip McMichael

    2015-01-01

    When Immanuel Wallerstein (1974) subverted the mid-1970s social science scene with his concept of the world-system, development, the master concept of social theory, suffered a fatal blow. Wallersteins critique of development emphasized its misapplication as a national strategy in a hierarchical world where only some states can succeed. Wallersteins path-breaking epistemological challenge to the modernization paradigm reformulated the unit of analysis of development from the nation-state to t...

  19. Global analysis of generalized parton distributions -- collider kinematics --

    CERN Document Server

    Lautenschlager, Tobias; Schaefer, A

    2013-01-01

    We utilize H1 and ZEUS data for exclusive electroproduction of photons, $\\rho^0$- and $\\phi$-mesons to access generalized parton distributions at small momentum fraction. To do so, we employ state-of-the art techniques, based on next-to-leading order perturbation theory, flexible model parametrization, and Bayesian inference. We provide a partonic interpretation of our analysis, where emphasize is given to the transverse distribution of sea quarks and gluons.

  20. Impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity in the 20th century: a multi-model multi-forcing analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-04-01

    Socioeconomic developments increasingly put pressure on our global fresh water resources. Over the past century, increasing extents of land were converted into (irrigated) agricultural production areas whilst dams and reservoirs were built to get grip on the timing and availability of fresh water resources. Often targeted to be of use at local, regional, or national levels, such human interventions affect, however, terrestrial water fluxes on larger scales. Although many of these interventions have been studied intensively at global and regional scales, the impact of land use and land cover change has often been omitted, and an assessment on how land conversions impact water resources availability and water scarcity conditions was not executed before, despite its importance in the development of sound integrated river basin water management plans. To address this issue, we evaluate in this contribution how land use and land cover change impact water resources and water scarcity conditions in the 20th century, using a multi-model multi-forcing framework. A novelty of this research is that the impact models applied in this study use the dynamic HYDE 3.1 - MIRCA dataset to cover the historical (1971-2010) changes in land use and land cover. Preliminary results show that more than 60% of the global population, predominantly living in downstream areas, is adversely affected by the impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources and water scarcity conditions. Whilst incoming discharge generally (in 97% of the global land area) tends to decrease due to upstream land conversions, we found at the same time increases in local runoff levels for a significant share (27%) of the global land area. Which effect eventually dominates and whether it causes water scarcity conditions is determined by the dependency of a region to water resources originating in upstream areas, and by the increasing rates with which the (locally generated) stream flow is used to fulfil (non

  1. Gender inequality and HIV transmission: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Eugene T; Collins, Sean E; Kung, Tiffany; Jones, James H; Tram, Khai Hoan; Boggiano, Victoria L; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Zolopa, Andrew R

    2014-01-01

    Introduction The HIV pandemic disproportionately impacts young women. Worldwide, young women aged 15–24 are infected with HIV at rates twice that of young men, and young women alone account for nearly a quarter of all new HIV infections. The incommensurate HIV incidence in young – often poor – women underscores how social and economic inequalities shape the HIV epidemic. Confluent social forces, including political and gender violence, poverty, racism, and sexism impede equal access to therapies and effective care, but most of all constrain the agency of women. Methods HIV prevalence data was compiled from the 2010 UNAIDS Global Report. Gender inequality was assessed using the 2011 United Nations Human Development Report Gender Inequality Index (GII). Logistic regression models were created with predominant mode of transmission (heterosexual vs. MSM/IDU) as the dependent variable and GII, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Democracy Index, male circumcision rate, log gross national income (GNI) per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP), and region as independent variables. Results and discussion There is a significant correlation between having a predominantly heterosexual epidemic and high gender inequality across all models. There is not a significant association between whether a country is predominantly Muslim, has a high/low GNI at PPP, has a high/low circumcision rate, and its primary mode of transmission. In addition, there are only three countries that have had a generalized epidemic in the past but no longer have one: Cambodia, Honduras, and Eritrea. GII data are available only for Cambodia and Honduras, and these countries showed a 37 and 34% improvement, respectively, in their Gender Inequality Indices between 1995 and 2011. During the same period, both countries reduced their HIV prevalence below the 1% threshold of a generalized epidemic. This represents limited but compelling evidence that improvements in gender inequality can lead to the abatement of

  2. Gender inequality and HIV transmission: a global analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene T Richardson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The HIV pandemic disproportionately impacts young women. Worldwide, young women aged 15–24 are infected with HIV at rates twice that of young men, and young women alone account for nearly a quarter of all new HIV infections. The incommensurate HIV incidence in young – often poor – women underscores how social and economic inequalities shape the HIV epidemic. Confluent social forces, including political and gender violence, poverty, racism, and sexism impede equal access to therapies and effective care, but most of all constrain the agency of women. Methods: HIV prevalence data was compiled from the 2010 UNAIDS Global Report. Gender inequality was assessed using the 2011 United Nations Human Development Report Gender Inequality Index (GII. Logistic regression models were created with predominant mode of transmission (heterosexual vs. MSM/IDU as the dependent variable and GII, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Democracy Index, male circumcision rate, log gross national income (GNI per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP, and region as independent variables. Results and discussion: There is a significant correlation between having a predominantly heterosexual epidemic and high gender inequality across all models. There is not a significant association between whether a country is predominantly Muslim, has a high/low GNI at PPP, has a high/low circumcision rate, and its primary mode of transmission. In addition, there are only three countries that have had a generalized epidemic in the past but no longer have one: Cambodia, Honduras, and Eritrea. GII data are available only for Cambodia and Honduras, and these countries showed a 37 and 34% improvement, respectively, in their Gender Inequality Indices between 1995 and 2011. During the same period, both countries reduced their HIV prevalence below the 1% threshold of a generalized epidemic. This represents limited but compelling evidence that improvements in gender inequality can lead to

  3. Strategies for assessing proton linkage to bimolecular interactions by global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We demonstrate the usefulness of global analysis of ITC data for proton-linked binding study. ► Various experimental strategies are evaluated for their information content. ► Data at multiple temperatures might improve the precision of binding parameters. ► Methods for detailed error analysis of parameter uncertainties are discussed. ► By global modeling, an uncertainty in molecular concentrations can be accounted for. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a traditional and powerful method for studying the linkage of ligand binding to proton uptake or release. The theoretical framework has been developed for more than two decades and numerous applications have appeared. In the current work, we explored strategic aspects of experimental design. To this end, we simulated families of ITC data sets that embed different strategies with regard to the number of experiments, range of experimental pH, buffer ionization enthalpy, and temperature. We then re-analyzed the families of data sets in the context of global analysis, employing a proton linkage binding model implemented in the global data analysis platform SEDPHAT, and examined the information content of all data sets by a detailed statistical error analysis of the parameter estimates. In particular, we studied the impact of different assumptions about the knowledge of the exact concentrations of the components, which in practice presents an experimental limitation for many systems. For example, the uncertainty in concentration may reflect imperfectly known extinction coefficients and stock concentrations or may account for different extents of partial inactivation when working with proteins at different pH values. Our results show that the global analysis can yield reliable estimates of the thermodynamic parameters for intrinsic binding and protonation, and that in the context of the global analysis the exact molecular component concentrations may not be required. Additionally

  4. Global transcriptome analysis of developing chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. seeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seema ePradhan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding developmental processes, especially in non-model crop plants, is extremely important in order to unravel unique mechanisms regulating development. Chickpea (C. arietinum L. seeds are especially valued for their high carbohydrate and protein content. Therefore, in order to elucidate the mechanisms underlying seed development in chickpea, deep sequencing of transcriptomes from four developmental stages was undertaken. In this study, next generation sequencing platform was utilised to sequence the transcriptome of four distinct stages of seed development in chickpea. About 1.3 million reads were generated which were assembled into 51,099 unigenes by merging the de novo and reference assemblies. Functional annotation of the unigenes was carried out using the Uniprot, COG and KEGG databases. RPKM based digital expression analysis revealed specific gene activities at different stages of development which was validated using Real time PCR analysis. More than 90% of the unigenes were found to be expressed in at least one of the four seed tissues. DEGseq was used to determine differentially expressing genes which revealed that only 6.75% of the unigenes were differentially expressed at various stages. Homology based comparison revealed 17.5% of the unigenes to be putatively seed specific. Transcription factors were predicted based on HMM profiles built using TF sequences from five legume plants and analysed for their differential expression during progression of seed development. Expression analysis of genes involved in biosynthesis of important secondary metabolites suggested that chickpea seeds can serve as a good source of antioxidants. Since transcriptomes are a valuable source of molecular markers like simple sequence repeats (SSRs, about 12,000 SSRs were mined in chickpea seed transcriptome and few of them were validated. In conclusion, this study will serve as a valuable resource for improved chickpea breeding.

  5. A global analysis of C. elegans trans-splicing

    OpenAIRE

    Allen, Mary Ann; Hillier, LaDeana W.; Waterston, Robert H.; Blumenthal, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Trans-splicing of one of two short leader RNAs, SL1 or SL2, occurs at the 5′ ends of pre-mRNAs of many C. elegans genes. We have exploited RNA-sequencing data from the modENCODE project to analyze the transcriptome of C. elegans for patterns of trans-splicing. Transcripts of ∼70% of genes are trans-spliced, similar to earlier estimates based on analysis of far fewer genes. The mRNAs of most trans-spliced genes are spliced to either SL1 or SL2, but most genes are not trans-spliced to both, ind...

  6. Global sensitivity analysis of the XUV-ABLATOR code

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nevrlý, V.; Janků, J.; Dlabka, J.; Vašinek, M.; Juha, Libor; Vyšín, Luděk; Burian, Tomáš; Lančok, Ján; Skříňský, J.; Zelinger, Zdeněk; Pira, P.; Wild, J.

    Bellingham: SPIE, 2013 - (Juha, L.; Bajt, S.; London, R.; Hudec, R.; Pína, L.). (Proceedings of SPIE. 8777). ISBN 9780819495792. [Damage to VUV, EUV, and X-ray Optics IV; and EUV and X-ray Optics: Synergy between Laboratory and Space III. Praha (CZ), 15.04.2013-18.04.2013] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP108/11/1312 Institutional support: RVO:68378271 ; RVO:61388955 Keywords : extreme ultraviolet laser * ablation * model * sensitivity analysis * high dimensional model representation Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics

  7. Global sensitivity analysis of analytical vibroacoustic transmission models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christen, Jean-Loup; Ichchou, Mohamed; Troclet, Bernard; Bareille, Olivier; Ouisse, Morvan

    2016-04-01

    Noise reduction issues arise in many engineering problems. One typical vibroacoustic problem is the transmission loss (TL) optimisation and control. The TL depends mainly on the mechanical parameters of the considered media. At early stages of the design, such parameters are not well known. Decision making tools are therefore needed to tackle this issue. In this paper, we consider the use of the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) for the analysis of the impact of mechanical parameters on features of interest. FAST is implemented with several structural configurations. FAST method is used to estimate the relative influence of the model parameters while assuming some uncertainty or variability on their values. The method offers a way to synthesize the results of a multiparametric analysis with large variability. Results are presented for transmission loss of isotropic, orthotropic and sandwich plates excited by a diffuse field on one side. Qualitative trends found to agree with the physical expectation. Design rules can then be set up for vibroacoustic indicators. The case of a sandwich plate is taken as an example of the use of this method inside an optimisation process and for uncertainty quantification.

  8. A Workflow for Global Sensitivity Analysis of PBPK Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin eMcNally

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models have a potentially significant role in the development of a reliable predictive toxicity testing strategy. The structure of PBPK models are ideal frameworks into which disparate in vitro and in vivo data can be integrated and utilised to translate information generated, using alternative to animal measures of toxicity and human biological monitoring data, into plausible corresponding exposures. However, these models invariably include the description of well known non-linear biological processes such as, enzyme saturation and interactions between parameters such as, organ mass and body mass. Therefore, an appropriate sensitivity analysis technique is required which can quantify the influences associated with individual parameters, interactions between parameters and any non-linear processes. In this report we have defined a workflow for sensitivity analysis of PBPK models that is computationally feasible, accounts for interactions between parameters, and can be displayed in the form of a bar chart and cumulative sum line (Lowry plot, which we believe is intuitive and appropriate for toxicologists, risk assessors and regulators.

  9. Global Proteome Analysis of the NCI-60 Cell Line Panel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Moghaddas Gholami

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The NCI-60 cell line collection is a very widely used panel for the study of cellular mechanisms of cancer in general and in vitro drug action in particular. It is a model system for the tissue types and genetic diversity of human cancers and has been extensively molecularly characterized. Here, we present a quantitative proteome and kinome profile of the NCI-60 panel covering, in total, 10,350 proteins (including 375 protein kinases and including a core cancer proteome of 5,578 proteins that were consistently quantified across all tissue types. Bioinformatic analysis revealed strong cell line clusters according to tissue type and disclosed hundreds of differentially regulated proteins representing potential biomarkers for numerous tumor properties. Integration with public transcriptome data showed considerable similarity between mRNA and protein expression. Modeling of proteome and drug-response profiles for 108 FDA-approved drugs identified known and potential protein markers for drug sensitivity and resistance. To enable community access to this unique resource, we incorporated it into a public database for comparative and integrative analysis (http://wzw.tum.de/proteomics/nci60.

  10. WORLD - SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND COMPARATIVE EDUCATION IN THE AGE OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert F. Arnove

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the application of world-systems analysis (WSA to the comparative study of education systems. Two main theoretical approaches to the study of transnational trends in education are identified: namely political realist and neoinstitutionalist. Following a discussion of their intellectual origins and basic assumptions, the article turns to an analysis of the articulation of world-systems analysis with the growing body of globalization research. The interactions between global economic and cultural forces and local contexts are illustrated in representative case studies in the field of comparative and international education. Special attention is given to the impact of major international governmental agencies as well as nongovernmental organizations on education policy agencies. Advances in telecommunication technologies, which compress time and space, are then analyzed with regard to how they shape the nature of work and education system responses. A penultimate section contrasts "globalization from above" with "globalization from below," the cross-national linking protest movements aimed at achieving more equitable education systems and just societies. The concluding section summarizes how different approaches to worldsystems analysis, within the more general framework of globalization research, can contribute to theory -building and more enlightened educational policy and practice- principal goals of the field of comparative and international education.

  11. Ensuring dynamic strategic fit of firms that compete globally in alliances and networks: proposing the Global SNA - Strategic Network Analysis - framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Diana L. Van Aduard de Macedo-Soares

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to sustain their competitive advantage in the current increasingly globalized and turbulent context, more and more firms are competing globally in alliances and networks that oblige them to adopt new managerial paradigms and tools. However, their strategic analyses rarely take into account the strategic implications of these alliances and networks, considering their global relational characteristics, admittedly because of a lack of adequate tools to do so. This paper contributes to research that seeks to fill this gap by proposing the Global Strategic Network Analysis - SNA - framework. Its purpose is to help firms that compete globally in alliances and networks to carry out their strategic assessments and decision-making with a view to ensuring dynamic strategic fit from both a global and relational perspective.

  12. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  13. Global GPS data analysis at the National Geodetic Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kass, William G.; Dulaney, Robert L.; Griffiths, Jake; Hilla, Stephen; Ray, Jim; Rohde, James

    2009-03-01

    NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has been one of the Analysis Centers (ACs) of the International GNSS Service (IGS) since its inception in 1994. Solutions for daily GPS orbits and Earth orientation parameters are regularly contributed to the IGS Rapid and Final products, as well as solutions of weekly station positions. These solutions are combined with those of the other ACs and then the resultant IGS products are distributed to users. To perform these tasks, NGS has developed and refined the Program for the Adjustment of GPS EphemerideS (PAGES) software. Although PAGES has continuously evolved over the past 15 years, recent efforts have focused mostly on updating models and procedures to conform more closely to IGS and the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) conventions. Details of our processing updates and demonstrations of the improvements will be provided.

  14. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Warren, Josh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); West, Devin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Schexnayder, Susan M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-05-01

    This study identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where the United States Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy resources and investments can help the United States achieve or maintain a competitive advantage. The report focuses on four application areas--wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels--that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers and are also particularly relevant to EERE's mission. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components, all contributing to a competitiveness assessment that addresses the United States' role in future industry growth. This report was prepared by researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee for the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center.

  15. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das. Sujit; Warren, Josh; West, Devin; Schexnayder, Susan M.

    2016-05-11

    This study identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where the United States Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy resources and investments can help the United States achieve or maintain a competitive advantage. The report focuses on four application areas--wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels--that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers and are also particularly relevant to EERE's mission. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components, all contributing to a competitiveness assessment that addresses the United States' role in future industry growth. This report was prepared by researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee for the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center.

  16. Current Global Almond Trade and Its Consumption Patterns Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    This article aims to investigate the current situation of the international almond trade and its consumption patterns.Traditionally, almonds are characterized by their good taste and high quality and regarded as an ideal source of several natural health nutrients. At present, the United States is the leading almond producer and exporter in the world, accompanied by Germany, Spain and Japan, the biggest almond importing countries. In order to study almond consumption patterns, two indicators were used in our study, the Food Consumer Location Ratio (FCLR) and the Food Consumer Location Relative Ratio (FCLRR). Furthermore, to identify the almond consumption groups, we carried out two cluster analyses based on FCLR and FCLRR values. Finally, an analysis of the factors which have an impact on a country's almond consumption was conducted. It shows that income level, endowment of resources and tradition as well as dietary habits are key factors that help to shape a country's almond consumption pattern.

  17. Global gene expression analysis for evaluation and design of biomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobutaka Hanagata, Taro Takemura and Takashi Minowa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive gene expression analysis using DNA microarrays has become a widespread technique in molecular biological research. In the biomaterials field, it is used to evaluate the biocompatibility or cellular toxicity of metals, polymers and ceramics. Studies in this field have extracted differentially expressed genes in the context of differences in cellular responses among multiple materials. Based on these genes, the effects of materials on cells at the molecular level have been examined. Expression data ranging from several to tens of thousands of genes can be obtained from DNA microarrays. For this reason, several tens or hundreds of differentially expressed genes are often present in different materials. In this review, we outline the principles of DNA microarrays, and provide an introduction to methods of extracting information which is useful for evaluating and designing biomaterials from comprehensive gene expression data.

  18. Development and verification of local/global analysis techniques for laminated composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

    1989-01-01

    Analysis and design methods for laminated composite materials have been the subject of considerable research over the past 20 years, and are currently well developed. In performing the detailed three-dimensional analyses which are often required in proximity to discontinuities, however, analysts often encounter difficulties due to large models. Even with the current availability of powerful computers, models which are too large to run, either from a resource or time standpoint, are often required. There are several approaches which can permit such analyses, including substructuring, use of superelements or transition elements, and the global/local approach. This effort is based on the so-called zoom technique to global/local analysis, where a global analysis is run, with the results of that analysis applied to a smaller region as boundary conditions, in as many iterations as is required to attain an analysis of the desired region. Before beginning the global/local analyses, it was necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the three-dimensional elements currently implemented in the Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed. It was also desired to install, using the Experimental Element Capability, a number of displacement formulation elements which have well known behavior when used for analysis of laminated composites.

  19. Exploration of phylogenetic data using a global sequence analysis method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giron Alain

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular phylogenetic methods are based on alignments of nucleic or peptidic sequences. The tremendous increase in molecular data permits phylogenetic analyses of very long sequences and of many species, but also requires methods to help manage large datasets. Results Here we explore the phylogenetic signal present in molecular data by genomic signatures, defined as the set of frequencies of short oligonucleotides present in DNA sequences. Although violating many of the standard assumptions of traditional phylogenetic analyses – in particular explicit statements of homology inherent in character matrices – the use of the signature does permit the analysis of very long sequences, even those that are unalignable, and is therefore most useful in cases where alignment is questionable. We compare the results obtained by traditional phylogenetic methods to those inferred by the signature method for two genes: RAG1, which is easily alignable, and 18S RNA, where alignments are often ambiguous for some regions. We also apply this method to a multigene data set of 33 genes for 9 bacteria and one archea species as well as to the whole genome of a set of 16 γ-proteobacteria. In addition to delivering phylogenetic results comparable to traditional methods, the comparison of signatures for the sequences involved in the bacterial example identified putative candidates for horizontal gene transfers. Conclusion The signature method is therefore a fast tool for exploring phylogenetic data, providing not only a pretreatment for discovering new sequence relationships, but also for identifying cases of sequence evolution that could confound traditional phylogenetic analysis.

  20. An Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Drinking Water Access to Climate-related Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, M.; Banerjee, O.; Christenson, E.; Holcomb, D.; Hamrick, L.; Bartram, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global drinking water access targets are formulated around "sustainable access." Global climate change (GCC) and associated hazards threaten the sustainability of drinking water supply. Extensive literature exists on the impacts of GCC on precipitation and water resources. However, the literature lacks a credible analysis of the vulnerability of global drinking water access. This research reports on an analysis of the current vulnerability of drinking water access due to three climate-related hazardous events: cyclone, drought and flood. An ArcGIS database was built incorporating the following: population density, hazardous event frequency, drinking water technologies in use and adaptive capacity. Two global grids were incorporated first: (1) LandScanTM global population distribution; and (2) frequency of cyclone, drought and flood from ~1980-2000 from Columbia University Center for Hazards Risk Research (CHRR). Population density was used to characterize cells as urban or rural and country-level urban/rural drinking water technologies in use were added based on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme data. Expert assessment of the resilience of each technology to each hazardous event based on WHO/DFID Vision 2030 were quantified and added to the database. Finally, country-level adaptive capacity was drawn from the "readiness" parameter of the Global Adaptation Index (GaIn). ArcGIS Model Builder and Python were used to automate the addition of datasets. This presentation will report on the results of this analysis, the first credible attempt to assess the vulnerability of global drinking water access to climate-related hazardous events. This analysis has yielded country-level scores and maps displaying the ranking of exposure score (for flood, drought, cyclone, and all three in aggregate) and the corresponding country-level vulnerability scores and rankings incorporating the impact of drinking water technologies and adaptive capacity (Figure 1).

  1. Preliminary analysis of acceleration of sea level rise through the twentieth century using extended tide gauge data sets (August 2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogarth, Peter

    2014-11-01

    This work explores the potential for extending tide gauge time series from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) using historical documents, PSMSL ancillary data, and by developing additional composite time series using near neighbor tide gauges. The aim was to increase the number, completeness, and geographical extent of records covering most or all of the twentieth century. The number of at least 75% complete century-scale time series have been approximately doubled over the original PSMSL data set. In total, over 4800 station years have been added, with 294 of these added to 10 long Southern Hemisphere records. Individual century-scale acceleration values derived from this new extended data set tend to converge on a value of 0.01 ± 0.008 mm/yr2. This result agrees closely with recent work and is statistically significant at the 1 sigma level. Possible causes of acceleration and errors are briefly discussed. Results confirm the importance of current data archeology projects involving digitization of the remaining archives of hard copy tide gauge data for sea level and climate studies.

  2. A global seasonal surface ocean climatology of phytoplankton types based on CHEMTAX analysis of HPLC pigments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swan, Chantal M.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Laufkoetter, Charlotte

    2016-03-01

    Much advancement has been made in recent years in field data assimilation, remote sensing and ecosystem modeling, yet our global view of phytoplankton biogeography beyond chlorophyll biomass is still a cursory taxonomic picture with vast areas of the open ocean requiring field validations. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data combined with inverse methods offer an advantage over many other phytoplankton quantification measures by way of providing an immediate perspective of the whole phytoplankton community in a sample as a function of chlorophyll biomass. Historically, such chemotaxonomic analysis has been conducted mainly at local spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. Here, we apply a widely tested inverse approach, CHEMTAX, to a global climatology of pigment observations from HPLC. This study marks the first systematic and objective global application of CHEMTAX, yielding a seasonal climatology comprised of ~1500 1°×1° global grid points of the major phytoplankton pigment types in the ocean characterizing cyanobacteria, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates, and diatoms, with results validated against prior regional studies where possible. Key findings from this new global view of specific phytoplankton abundances from pigments are a) the large global proportion of marine haptophytes (comprising 32±5% of total chlorophyll), whose biogeochemical functional roles are relatively unknown, and b) the contrasting spatial scales of complexity in global community structure that can be explained in part by regional oceanographic conditions. The results are publically accessible via

  3. The management century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiechel, Walter

    2012-11-01

    In 1886, addressing the nascent American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Henry R. Towne proposed that "the management of works" be considered a modern art--thereby heralding the Management Century, when management as we know it came into being and shaped the world in which we work. Kiechel, a past editorial director of Harvard Business Publishing, elucidates the three eras that punctuate this period: the years leading up to World War II, during which scientific exactitude gave wings to a new managerial elite; the early postwar decades, managerialism's apogee of self-confidence and a time when wartime principles of strategy were adapted, sometimes ruthlessly, to the running of companies; and the 1980s to the present, years that saw fast-moving changes, disequilibrium, and a servitude to market forces but also ushered in globalism, unprecedented innovation, and heightened expectations about how workers are to be treated. Along the way he examines the contributions of thinkers such as Frederick Taylor, Elton Mayo, Peter Drucker, and Michael Porter. What lies ahead? Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the 21st-century company, Kiechel posits, is to truly free the spark of human imagination from the organization's tidal pull toward the status quo. There's almost always a better way, he concludes--and management will continue to seek it. PMID:23155998

  4. Determinants of renewable energy growth: A global sample analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate factors influencing country-level renewable energy growth by applying FEVD and PCSE estimation methods in a unique sample analysis. With a longer time series (1990–2010) and a broader sample size of countries (including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) than previous studies, our results reveal new insights. The results suggest that certain government-backed energy policies impede renewable energy investments, thus implying significant failures in policy design. These policies may be failing mainly because of uncertainty and the likelihood of discontinuity. Weak voluntary approaches are introduced in order to satisfy public demand for more sustainable investments and programmes; we find that these may have negative influences on the growth of renewables as well. The insight gained is consistent over the estimation methods employed. - Highlights: • Some public energy policies are shown to impede renewable energy investments; this implies failure in policy design. • Environmental concern is shown to drive renewables investment but energy security concerns do not seem to influence renewables investment. • Results suggest that countries are likely to reduce renewables commitments when under pressure to ensure energy supply. • Results seem to underscore the policy lobbying strength of the traditional energy mix industries

  5. Modelling the Milky Way galaxy: global mode analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Polyachenko, Evgeny; Just, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    A stellar dynamical model of the Milky Way Galaxy composed of an exponential disc, a cuspy bulge, and a NFW halo is studied. The model is subject to instability that form a bar with a pattern speed of 56 km/s/kpc and an exponential growth timescale of 250 Myr. The bar slows down after formation with a variable rate, which is largest just after formation, then decrease to 7 km/s/kpc per Gyr. If the live halo of particles is substituted by a fixed external potential (rigid halo), the exponential growth timescale increases to 500 Myr, which would increase bar formation time from 3 to 6 Gyr in a disc represented by $10^{11}$ stars. Spectral analysis combined with time Fourier transformation shows the presence of bisymmetric `quasi-modes' with pattern speeds smaller than that of the bar. These modes disappear when the bar is strong enough, meanwhile a new nonlinear mode coupled to the bar appears with a pattern speed about 70 ... 75 % of the bar. This mode has a form of a trailing spiral extending to its corotatio...

  6. Moving the goalposts: gender and globalisation in the twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, R

    2000-03-01

    This article posits the argument that the 21st century will witness an assertion of the global relevance of gender in development. It looks at globalization from a gender perspective by mapping out the different aspects of the globalization processes, and viewing each of these aspects through the lens of gender analysis. The economic implications of globalization for women are traced in terms of the employment generated by the expansion of global trade and production. In addition, this article considers the response of the international women's movement to the increasing level of economic globalization, as well as the challenges for the global incorporation of gender issues. It concludes by citing a project initiated in Norwich called ¿Moving the Goalposts,¿ a project which aims to promote girls¿ football in an area around Mombasa in Kenya. PMID:12349632

  7. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  8. Objective analysis and assimilation of observational data from FGGE. [First GARP Global experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W. E.

    1983-01-01

    An objective analysis scheme is presented for the assimilation of meteorological data in which wind, geopotential height, and relative humidity are analyzed on mandatory pressure levels, and surface pressure and temperature are reduced to sea level for analysis. The present analysis/forecast system demonstrates a reasonable degree of forecast skill over the Northern Hemisphere for an ensemble of five-day integrations during the First Special Observing Period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) The vertical motion field shows outstanding agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern for the sample analysis presented, and the mean meridional circulation portrayed in the FGGE analysis is in close agreement with observational estimates.

  9. Global transcriptome analysis of the heat shock response ofshewanella oneidensis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Haichun; Wang, Sarah; Liu, Xueduan; Yan, Tinfeng; Wu, Liyou; Alm, Eric; Arkin, Adam P.; Thompson, Dorothea K.; Zhou, Jizhong

    2004-04-30

    Shewanella oneidensis is an important model organism for bioremediation studies because of its diverse respiratory capabilities. However, the genetic basis and regulatory mechanisms underlying the ability of S. oneidensis to survive and adapt to various environmentally relevant stresses is poorly understood. To define this organism's molecular response to elevated growth temperatures, temporal gene expression profiles were examined in cells subjected to heat stress using whole-genome DNA microarrays for S. oneidensis MR-1. Approximately 15 percent (711) of the predicted S. oneidensis genes represented on the microarray were significantly up- or down-regulated (P < 0.05) over a 25-min period following shift to the heat shock temperature (42 C). As expected, the majority of S. oneidensis genes exhibiting homology to known chaperones and heat shock proteins (Hsps) were highly and transiently induced. In addition, a number of predicted genes encoding enzymes in glycolys is and the pentose cycle, [NiFe] dehydrogenase, serine proteases, transcriptional regulators (MerR, LysR, and TetR families), histidine kinases, and hypothetical proteins were induced in response to heat stress. Genes encoding membrane proteins were differentially expressed, suggesting that cells possibly alter their membrane composition or structure in response to variations in growth temperature. A substantial number of the genes encoding ribosomal proteins displayed down-regulated co-expression patterns in response to heat stress, as did genes encoding prophage and flagellar proteins. Finally, based on computational comparative analysis of the upstream promoter regions of S.oneidensis heat-inducible genes, a putative regulatory motif, showing high conservation to the Escherichia coli sigma 32-binding consensus sequence, was identified.

  10. Energy in the 21st century

    CERN Document Server

    Fanchi, John R

    2013-01-01

    Many events that affect global energy production and consumption have occurred since the second edition of Energy in the 21st Century appeared in 2011. For example, an earthquake and tsunami in Japan led to the disruption of the Fukushima nuclear facility and a global re-examination of the safety of the nuclear industry. Oil and natural gas prices continue to be volatile, and the demand for energy has been affected by the global economy. The third edition updates data and the discussion of recent events.Energy in the 21st Century has been used as the text for an introductory energy course for

  11. Greek silver drachmae of the roman civil war period, (first century BC) as reflected in external beam PIXE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The great number of Greek silver coins from the first century BC found in the Balkan - Carpathian region have aroused a sharp interest among numismatic researchers. The problem is to classify these coins - tetradrachmae of Thasos and drachmae of Apollonia and Dyrrachium into originals, copies and imitations, in relation to their provenance. Well known are Celtic Thasos tetradrachmae copies (good quality coins), and also Barbarian imitations (absence or misspelling of the legend, disproportionate and simplified figures). Thracians, Dacians and Celts used to produce the same type of coins. The dies used for coining were bought or stolen from the Greeks, while some local engravers manufactured their own dies. Visual examination, the first step of a numismatist's work, is insufficient to classify the coins. This is the reason why elemental analysis is required (X-Ray Fluorescence and Proton Induced X-ray Emission methods). 36 Thasos tetradrachmae and 145 Apollonia and Dyrrachium drachmae, struck between 60 and 48 BC, a very intense period of civil Roman wars, belonging to Tarii Crisurilor Museum in Oradea and to Budapest National Museum were analyzed. The fingerprint of the third group of Thasian tetradrachmae is the bromine. The presence of this element in silver coins is mentioned in the literature, where bromine is linked to marine spray (the hoard was found near the seacoast). In our case, the coins were found in a region far away from the Black Sea coast. Taking into account the presence of bromine in silver ore from the Transylvania mine Rodna and supposing an imperfect procedure of refinement , these coins could be attributed to local workshops. As for the Apollonia and Dyrrachium drachmae, a similar situation can be retraced. Because of the high silver content and refined aspect of the coins belonging to the first group, one can assume that these drachmae are the original ones, minted of Macedonian silver. The percentage of copper in the second group of coins

  12. Cold gas in cluster cores: Global stability analysis and non-linear simulations of thermal instability

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhury, Prakriti Pal

    2015-01-01

    We perform global linear stability analysis and idealized numerical simulations in global thermal balance to understand the condensation of cold gas from hot/virial atmospheres (coronae), in particular the intracluster medium (ICM). We pay particular attention to geometry (e.g., spherical versus plane-parallel) and the nature of the gravitational potential. Global linear analysis gives a similar value for the fastest growing thermal instability modes in spherical and Cartesian geometries. Simulations and observations suggest that cooling in halos critically depends on the ratio of the cooling time to the free-fall time ($t_{cool}/t_{ff}$). Extended cold gas condenses out of the ICM only if this ratio is smaller than a threshold value close to 10. Previous works highlighted the difference between the nature of cold gas condensation in spherical and plane-parallel atmospheres; namely, cold gas condensation appeared easier in spherical atmospheres. This apparent difference due to geometry arises because the prev...

  13. What Constitutes  Good Writing ? – A Comparative Analysis of 20 th  and Early 21 st  Century Poetics

    OpenAIRE

    Dalva, Casandra Dawn

    2015-01-01

    Is it any good? Most readers have asked and been asked this question. But is there such a thing as a good book, or good writing? That is the question here, examined through a comparative analysis of the poetics of a group of 20th century writers: Jack Kerouac, David Foster Wallace, Stephen King and Ayn Rand. It appears that these writers, who had seemingly little in common except for the fact that they wrote fiction in America, mainly after World War 2, agree on some important aspects consid...

  14. Analysis on the Orientation of Marriage Value in the 18th-19th Century of England through Pride and Prejudice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Qiu-ji

    2013-01-01

    “It is truth universally acknowledged that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife.” Almost two centuries later, the deep impression on readers left by the opening sentence of Pride and Prejudice has not decreased because of their changing literary taste. Jane Austin, the author of Pride and Prejudice, was one of the famous realistic writers in English literature in the nineteenth century. Pride and Prejudice is Austin’s representative work. There were no earthshaking events, no dreadful disasters, no sharp contradictions and no romantic legends in Authin’s novels. Time and space were small in her novels. She wrote how a marriageable woman could find a satisfactory husband. She described many kinds of love and marriage of different women. She expressed her own original views of marriage in her works.In Pride and Prejudice Austin wrote four marriage types: ideal Elizabeth and Darcy, realistic Charlotte and Collins, felicitous Jane and Bingley, unhappy Lydiard Wickham. She pointed out emphatically economic consideration is the bonds of wedlock and love. She said marriage is not determined by property and family status. It is unwise to marry without money, but it is wrong to marry for money; the marriage settled by love is happy and ideal. The thesis explicates that Austin’s view of marriage was progressive, advocated by her focus on the equality between men and women. She emphasized marriage should be of equal importance both by love and by economic consideration, but love plays the guiding role. She revealed the connotation of marriage. She also analyses the marriage value in the 18th-19th century .Her exposure is of great realistic significance to the society today.

  15. The structure of the proton: The CT14 QCD global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulat, S.; Hou, T.-J.; Gao, J.; Guzzi, M.; Huston, J.; Nadolsky, P.; Pumplin, J.; Schmidt, C.; Stump, D.; Yuan, C.-P.

    2016-07-01

    A brief description of the CT14 global analysis of quantum chromodynamics at next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO) from the CTEQ-TEAgroup is given. Predictions for standard candle processes at the LHC are illustrated together with the main features of the CT14 parton distribution functions

  16. The structure of the proton: The CT14 QCD global analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dulat S.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A brief description of the CT14 global analysis of quantum chromodynamics at next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO from the CTEQ-TEAgroup is given. Predictions for standard candle processes at the LHC are illustrated together with the main features of the CT14 parton distribution functions

  17. Global analysis in the study of the hydrodynamic behaviour of the relativistic nuclear collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Experimental results on the thrust tensor introduced in the global analysis of the relativistic nuclear collisions are presented. These results are connected with the results on the sphericity tensor obtained previously. The experiments have been performed at the Synchrophasotron from JINR Dubna (Russia) in the frame of the SKM 200 collaboration. (authors)

  18. On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Voss, F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2011-01-01

    The recent concerns for world-wide extreme events related to climate change have motivated the development of large scale models that simulate the global water cycle. In this context, analysis of hydrological extremes is important and requires the adaptation of identification methods used for river

  19. Finite-time analysis of global projective synchronization on coloured networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cai Guoliang; Jiang Shengqin; Cai Shuiming; Tian Lixin

    2016-03-01

    A novel finite-time analysis is given to investigate the global projective synchronization on coloured networks. Some less conservative conditions are derived by utilizing finite-time control techniques and Lyapunov stability theorem. In addition, two illustrative numerical simulations are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical results.

  20. Globalization, Educational Targeting, and Stable Inequalities: A Comparative Analysis of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rambla, Xavier

    2006-01-01

    The present study analyzes educational targeting in Argentina, Brazil and Chile from a sociological point of view. It shows that a "logic of induction" has become the vehicle for anti-poverty education strategies meant to help targeted groups improve on their own. The analysis explores the influence of the global educational agenda, the empirical…