WorldWideScience

Sample records for century global analysis

  1. Does global warning increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis

    Dingcheng Huang; Robert A. Haack; Runzhi. Zhang

    2011-01-01

    The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the...

  2. One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909-2013).

    Pietschnig, Jakob; Voracek, Martin

    2015-05-01

    The Flynn effect (rising intelligence test performance in the general population over time and generations) varies enigmatically across countries and intelligence domains; its substantive meaning and causes remain elusive. This first formal meta-analysis on the topic revealed worldwide IQ gains across more than one century (1909-2013), based on 271 independent samples, totaling almost 4 million participants, from 31 countries. Key findings include that IQ gains vary according to domain (estimated 0.41, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.21 IQ points annually for fluid, spatial, full-scale, and crystallized IQ test performance, respectively), are stronger for adults than children, and have decreased in more recent decades. Altogether, these findings narrow down proposed theories and candidate factors presumably accounting for the Flynn effect. Factors associated with life history speed seem mainly responsible for the Flynn effect's general trajectory, whereas favorable social multiplier effects and effects related to economic prosperity appear to be responsible for observed differences of the Flynn effect across intelligence domains. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  4. Global health in the 21st century.

    Laaser, Ulrich; Brand, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Since the end of the 1990s, globalization has become a common term, facilitated by the social media of today and the growing public awareness of life-threatening problems common to all people, such as global warming, global security and global divides. For the main parameters of health like the burden of disease, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, extreme discrepancies are observed across the world. Infant mortality, malnutrition and high fertility go hand in hand. Civil society, as an indispensable activator of public health development, mainly represented by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), is characterised by a high degree of fragmentation and lack of public accountability. The World Federation of Public Health Associations is used as an example of an NGO with a global mission and fostering regional cooperation as an indispensable intermediate level.The lack of a globally valid terminology of basic public health functions is prohibitive for coordinated global and regional efforts. Attempts to harmonise essential public health functions, services and operations are under way to facilitate communication and mutual understanding. 1) Given the limited effects of the Millennium Development Goal agenda, the Post-2015 Development Goals should focus on integrated regional development. 2) A code of conduct for NGOs should be urgently developed for the health sector, and NGOs should be registered and accredited. 3) The harmonisation of the basic terminology for global public health essentials should be enhanced.

  5. Gender and globalization. A century in retrospect.

    Chinkin, C

    2000-01-01

    In the past, power structures of the nation-State have been organized around patriarchal assumptions, granting men monopoly over power, authority, and wealth. A number of structures have been erected to achieve this imbalance, which have disguised its inequity by making it appear as natural and universal. However, with globalization, this centralization of power within the Sovereign State has been fragmented. Although globalization opens up new spaces by weakening the nation-State, subsequently making possible the undermining of traditional gender hierarchies and devising new bases for gender relations, the reality that the State is no longer the sole institution that can define identity and belonging within it has denied women the space to assert their own claims to gendered self-determination. In this regard, globalization has impacted upon gender relations in complex and contradictory ways. This paper discusses such impacts of globalization on gender relations. Overall, it has become apparent that forms of inequality still exist regardless of a State's prevailing political ideology. Their manifestations may differ, but the reality of women's subordination remains constant.

  6. Local/global: women artists in the nineteenth century

    Cherry, D.; Helland, J.

    2006-01-01

    Local/Global: Women Artists in the Nineteenth Century is the first book to investigate women artists working in disparate parts of the world. This major new book offers a dazzling array of compelling essays on art, architecture and design by leading writers: Joan Kerr on art in Australia by

  7. Global Energy Challenges of the 21. Century and Nuclear Energy

    Gagarinskiy, Andrey

    2008-01-01

    The paper considers the world energy demand till the middle of the century, as well as possible forecasting solution for this challenge. On the base of the mathematical model developed in the Kurchatov Institute in 2003- 2006, the vision of the global nuclear energy system and its potential contribution in the energy mix was analyzed. The rate of rapprochement between specific energy consumptions in different countries of the world is a key parameter determining the energy market strain. It was shown that a continuation of the current world trends of this rapprochement would result in an energy resource deficit already in the nearest future. The energy mix picture would contain an 'unsatisfied demand' area of about 10 000 Mtoe of total energy to be consumed by the mid-century Supposing that the mankind has to meet the 'unsatisfied demand' by nuclear energy, the global energy challenges of the 21. century energy do not impose any upper limit on nuclear energy development, the scale of which would be determined by development opportunities. Russia, as one of the pioneers of the First Nuclear Era, possesses great experience of solving the key issues of nuclear energy of the 20. century, and is capable to play an important role in dealing with the challenges faced by nuclear in the 21. century. (authors)

  8. Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

    Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

  9. Global generations: social change in the twentieth century.

    Edmunds, June; Turner, Bryan S

    2005-12-01

    The concept of generation within sociology has until recently been a marginal area of interest. However, various demographic, cultural and intellectual developments have re-awakened an interest in generations that started with the classic essay by Karl Mannheim. To date, the sociological literature has generally conceptualized generations as nationally bounded entities. In this paper we suggest that the sociology of generations should develop the concept of global generations. This conceptual enhancement is important because the growth of global communications technology has enabled traumatic events, in an unparalleled way, to be experienced globally. The late nineteenth and early twentieth century was the era of international generations, united through print media, and the mid-twentieth century saw the emergence of transnational generations, facilitated by new broadcast communications. However, the latter part of the twentieth century is the period of global generations, defined by electronic communications technology, which is characterized, uniquely, by increasing interactivity. The 1960s generation was the first global generation, the emergence of which had world-wide consequences; today with major developments in new electronic communications, there is even more potential for the emergence of global generations that can communicate across national boundaries and through time. If in the past historical traumas combined with available opportunities to create national generations, now globally experienced traumas, facilitated by new media technologies, have the potential for creating global generational consciousness. The media have become increasingly implicated in the formation of generational movements. Because we are talking about generations in the making rather than an historical generation, this article is necessarily speculative; it aims to provoke discussion and establish a new research agenda for work on generations.

  10. Rethinking Global Water Governance for the 21st Century

    Ajami, N. K.; Cooley, H.

    2012-12-01

    Growing pressure on the world's water resources is having major impacts on our social and economic well-being. According to the United Nations, today, at least 1.1 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Pressures on water resources are likely to continue to worsen in response to decaying and crumbling infrastructure, continued population growth, climate change, degradation of water quality, and other challenges. If these challenges are not addressed, they pose future risks for many countries around the world, making it urgent that efforts are made to understand both the nature of the problems and the possible solutions that can effectively reduce the associated risks. There is growing understanding of the need to rethink governance to meet the 21st century water challenges. More and more water problems extend over traditional national boundaries and to the global community and the types and numbers of organizations addressing water issues are large and growing. Economic globalization and transnational organizations and activities point to the need for improving coordination and integration on addressing water issues, which are increasingly tied to food and energy security, trade, global climate change, and other international policies. We will present some of the key limitations of global water governance institutions and provide recommendations for improving these institutions to address 21st century global water challenges more effectively.

  11. The Century-Long Challenge of Global Carbon Management

    Socolow, R.

    2002-05-01

    The time scale of the global carbon management is a century, not a decade and not a millennium. A century is the ratio of 1000 billion metric tons of carbon [Gt(C)] to 10 Gt(C)/yr. 1000 Gt(C) is the future emissions that will lead to approximately a doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration, 280 ppm, assuming the total net ocean plus terrestrial sink remains at half the strength of this source - since 2.1 Gt (C) = 1 ppm, and the concentration today is already 370 ppm. Doubling is the most widely used boundary between acceptable and unacceptable Greenhouse-related environmental disruption, or, in the language of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the onset of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." And 10 Gt(C)/yr is a conservative estimate of the average annual fossil-fuel carbon source over the century; it is now between 6 and 7 Gt(C). Conventional oil and gas are not sufficiently abundant to generate a serious Greenhouse problem on their own. Well before their cumulative carbon emissions reach 1000 Gt(C), both are expected to become non-competitive as a result of growing costs of access (costs related to resources being very deep underground, or below very deep water, or very remote, or very small.) But several times 1000 Gt(C) of coal resources will probably be competitive with non-fossil fuel alternatives, as will "unconventional" oil and gas resources, such as tar sands. The world will not be saved from a serious Greenhouse problem by fossil fuel depletion. There are four mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. Fossil fuels can cease to dominate the global energy system well before the end of the century, yielding large market share to some combination of renewable energy and nuclear (fission and fusion) energy sources. Fossil fuels can continue to dominate, but most of the carbon in the century's fossil fuels can be prevented from reaching the atmosphere (fossil

  12. Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities

    Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Tatem, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion. PMID:27549569

  13. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  14. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

  15. Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics

    Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C.; Chakrabarti, Alok K.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Pasricha et al. (2012) Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the Influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 497–505. Background  PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Methods  Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Results  Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full‐length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th‐century pandemic influenza viruses contained full‐length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human‐ and avian host‐specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Conclusions  Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host‐specific evolution of the virus

  16. Dynamic Chaos, Conflicts in the Greater Middle East and Global Governance Mechanisms in the XXI Century (Proceedings of PFUR's Expert Seminars and Situational Analysis

    Denis Andreevich Degterev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article summarizes the experience of methodological expert seminars and case studies of international conflict of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations of the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences at Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. The background and the main stages of elaboration of PFUR’s integrated multidisciplinary methodology of situation analysis of international conflicts are described. The evolution of methodological approaches to conflict analysis used in the expert community, from classical methods, including the method of analytic hierarchy by T. Saati to the nonlinear dynamics of the processes of regional development and the perception of the international system as a non-equilibrium system are shown, as well as possibilities of use of approaches of the natural sciences (theory of complex systems in the modeling of international relations. Particular attention is paid to the results of PFUR's situational analysis 2015 “Greater Middle East: twenty years later (1994-2014”. The authors show us the methodology of situation analysis in details, including the matrix approach to the distribution of research topics and the method of ranking research tasks by difficulty level between different categories of participants (students, masters, postgraduate students, teachers. A special focus is made on proceedings of leading orientalists from Russia (Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Science and foreign countries (Austria, UK. The directions of further improvement of PFUR's methods of situational analysis are provided.

  17. Mining education in the XXI century: global challenges and prospects

    О. И. Казанин

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of development prospects for the world mining industry is presented, requirements to mining technologies are formulated, as well as key trends of technologic development in the mineral resources complex. The paper demonstrates the role of mining industry and professional education as essential components of sustainable territorial development. Global challenges have been formulated, which must be taken into account when forming general approaches to the development of mining education. Distinctions of mining education in Russia, Germany, USA and other leading mining countries have been analyzed. Professional standards for mining engineers have been reviewed for different countries, along with their relation to educational standards. It has been shown, what role professional communities play in the development of professional education and stimulation of continuous professional development of mining engineers. Authors point out the need for international integration in the issues of training and continuous professional development of mining specialists, as well as international accreditation of educational programs for mining engineers and their certification. Information is presented on international organizations, performing the function of international accreditation of engineering educational programs, history of their establishment and role within the context of economic globalization. The paper contains examples of successful international cooperation and modern integration processes among universities, aimed at unification of requirements and improvement of existing systems of training and continuous professional development of mining engineers.

  18. Globalization and Chinese Education in the Early 20th Century

    Bailey, Paul J.

    2013-01-01

    With China's growing significance in the global economy ever more evident, studies in recent years have highlighted multiple aspects of China's "Globalization" (or global connections) that predate the contemporary period. This article focuses on educational reform in the late Qing and early Republic as a way of illuminating a significant…

  19. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  20. Exploring Changes in Nitrogen and Phosphorus Retention in Global Rivers in the Twentieth Century

    Beusen, A.; Bouwman, L.; Van Beek, R.; Wisser, D.; Hartmann, J.

    2012-12-01

    Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by components of river basins (soils, groundwater, riparian zones, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs). The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. For analyzing the impact of multiple changes and disturbances at the global scale, we use a distributed approach to describe the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) transport and retention in all the above river basin components. A hydrological model is used to describe the water flow through the respective compartments. We analyze the changes in retention during the past century (1900-2000), as this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities that have resulted in global changes, such as climate change, land use change, changes in the hydrology by dam construction, irrigation, and consumptive water use. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from nutrient spiraling concept. We concentrate on the flows of total N and total P, because of the importance of the ratios between these two elements for biogeochemistry and the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. Since the various processes in the different compartments in terms of delivery to surface water are poorly known, we present a sensitivity analysis of the modeled river export for a number of key variables.

  1. Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th-century pandemics.

    Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C; Chakrabarti, Alok K

    2013-07-01

    PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full-length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th-century pandemic influenza viruses contained full-length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human- and avian host-specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host-specific evolution of the virus. However, studies are required to correlate this sequence variability with the virulence and pathogenicity. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. POSSIBLE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL EVOLUTIONS OF GEOPOLITICS IN THE XXI CENTURY (II

    Constantin MINCU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the author briefly presents possible global and regional evolutions of geopolitics in the XXI century grounded on the analysis of some regards expressed by foreign and Romanian specialists in many papers appeared in the late years on this subject. A special attention is granted to the book published by STRATFOR founder George FRIEDMAN “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century”, edited in Romania to the Litera Publishing House in 2012. The evolutions forecasted on medium and long term will practically damage all Earth’s population and its regions, with dramatic consequences on economic, financial, social, military and environmental plan. The most of the geopolitics’ specialists appreciate with arguments and grounded there will be following intricate decades with riots and wars with spectacular up side downs of situations and major reconfigurations of areas of influence of major powers with important influences also over Romania.

  3. Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

    Walter Labys

    2005-01-01

    Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

  4. Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

    Inaya eHajj Hussein

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response.The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the 18th century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Jenner, the father of vaccination and immunology, published his work on small pox.The 19th century was a major landmark, with the Germ Theory of disease of Louis Pasteur, the discovery of the germ tubercle bacillus for tuberculosis by Robert Koch, and the isolation of pneumococcus organism by George Miller Sternberg. Another landmark was the discovery of diphtheria toxin by Emile Roux and its serological treatment by Emil Von Behring and Paul Ehrlih. In addition, Pasteur was able to generate the first live attenuated viral vaccine against rabies. Typhoid vaccines were then developed, followed by the plague vaccine of Yersin. At the beginning of World War I, the tetanus toxoid was introduced, followed in 1915 by the pertussis vaccine. In 1974, The Expanded Program of Immunization was established within the WHO for BCG, Polio, DTP, measles, yellow fever and hepatitis B. The year 1996 witnessed the launching of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. In 1988, the WHO passed a resolution to eradicate polio by the year 2000 and in 2006; the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer was developed. In 2010 The Decade of vaccines was launched, and on April 1st 2012, the United Nations launched the shot@Life campaign. In brief, the armamentarium of vaccines continues to grow with more emphasis on safety, availability and accessibility. This mini review highlights the major historical events and pioneers in the course of development of vaccines, which have eradicated

  5. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  6. Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century.

    Hwang, Jackelyn

    2016-02-01

    Few studies have considered the role of immigration in the rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying neighborhoods were "global" in the 1970s or became so over time. An early presence of Asians was positively associated with gentrification; and an early presence of Hispanics was positively associated with gentrification in neighborhoods with substantial shares of blacks and negatively associated with gentrification in cities with high Hispanic growth, where ethnic enclaves were more likely to form. Low-income, predominantly black neighborhoods and neighborhoods that became Asian and Hispanic destinations remained ungentrified despite the growth of gentrification during the late twentieth century. The findings suggest that the rise of immigration after 1965 brought pioneers to many low-income central-city neighborhoods, spurring gentrification in some neighborhoods and forming ethnic enclaves in others.

  7. Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

    Luo, Albert

    2012-01-01

    Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

  8. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  9. Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

    Meng, Qingjia [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, River and Coastal Environment Research Center, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Qingdao (China); Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Martin, Thomas [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Semenov, Vladimir A. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2012-05-15

    Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable. (orig.)

  10. Global Logistic Network of Courier Services for the 21" Century

    Ratko Zelenika

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of logistics has contributed a lot to all thebranches of economy. A successful economic subject cannotexist without a well-developed logistic branch. In economicsthe organization of logistics is becoming a strategic element regardingthe policy making of enterprises. Logistics belongs to anarea that will play an important role in our lives; therefore, thedevelopment of a logistic system is of an exceptional significancefor the economy and also for the non-economic sphere ofactivities. So, modem logistics enables us to bring into line differentinterests in management of material current. Global organizersof logistic services are developing and specializing insome essential services, such as combining of cargo into assemblyconsignments and also their distribution. The biggest globaltenderers of logistic services are considered, DHL, TNT,FEDEX, UPS ...

  11. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S.J.; Botzen, Wouter J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be

  12. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  13. The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century.

    Fowler, David; Coyle, Mhairi; Skiba, Ute; Sutton, Mark A; Cape, J Neil; Reis, Stefan; Sheppard, Lucy J; Jenkins, Alan; Grizzetti, Bruna; Galloway, James N; Vitousek, Peter; Leach, Allison; Bouwman, Alexander F; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dentener, Frank; Stevenson, David; Amann, Marcus; Voss, Maren

    2013-07-05

    Global nitrogen fixation contributes 413 Tg of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to terrestrial and marine ecosystems annually of which anthropogenic activities are responsible for half, 210 Tg N. The majority of the transformations of anthropogenic Nr are on land (240 Tg N yr(-1)) within soils and vegetation where reduced Nr contributes most of the input through the use of fertilizer nitrogen in agriculture. Leakages from the use of fertilizer Nr contribute to nitrate (NO3(-)) in drainage waters from agricultural land and emissions of trace Nr compounds to the atmosphere. Emissions, mainly of ammonia (NH3) from land together with combustion related emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), contribute 100 Tg N yr(-1) to the atmosphere, which are transported between countries and processed within the atmosphere, generating secondary pollutants, including ozone and other photochemical oxidants and aerosols, especially ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) and ammonium sulfate (NH4)2SO4. Leaching and riverine transport of NO3 contribute 40-70 Tg N yr(-1) to coastal waters and the open ocean, which together with the 30 Tg input to oceans from atmospheric deposition combine with marine biological nitrogen fixation (140 Tg N yr(-1)) to double the ocean processing of Nr. Some of the marine Nr is buried in sediments, the remainder being denitrified back to the atmosphere as N2 or N2O. The marine processing is of a similar magnitude to that in terrestrial soils and vegetation, but has a larger fraction of natural origin. The lifetime of Nr in the atmosphere, with the exception of N2O, is only a few weeks, while in terrestrial ecosystems, with the exception of peatlands (where it can be 10(2)-10(3) years), the lifetime is a few decades. In the ocean, the lifetime of Nr is less well known but seems to be longer than in terrestrial ecosystems and may represent an important long-term source of N2O that will respond very slowly to control measures on the sources of Nr from which it is produced.

  14. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  15. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since ~ 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  16. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  17. Introduction to global analysis

    Kahn, Donald W

    2007-01-01

    This text introduces the methods of mathematical analysis as applied to manifolds, including the roles of differentiation and integration, infinite dimensions, Morse theory, Lie groups, and dynamical systems. 1980 edition.

  18. A global learning-centered approach to higher education: workplace development in the 21st century

    Carlos Tasso Eira de Aquino

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Competition in the 21st century economy requires corporations, organizations, and professionals to face a common challenge: diverse individuals need consistent motivation towards building competences that increase personal marketability using a combination of higher education and professional development. This article represents an evolving report summary and non-traditional learning-centered approach focusing on adult competences necessary for succeeding in the competitive global marketplace of the 21st century. The purpose of this article is to understand the needs of constantly changing employer demands in the work environment. Exploring contemporary approaches related to skill development, adult education, and learning processes, will be the path towards higher levels of professional success. This article will provide readers with an enlightening discussion focusing on the necessary adult skills and competencies professionals need to succeed in the global marketplace.

  19. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day −1 , while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO 2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day −1 ) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  20. The eighteenth century in the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire: perspectives for a global history

    Lafi , Nora

    2014-01-01

    International audience; In his 1954 address to the American Philosophical Society on the role of the Ottoman Empire in world history, Arnold Toynbee emphasized the importance of the year 1453. The subsequent centuries he envisioned as merely a series of splendours and failures leading inevitably to the collapse of the Empire and the creation of the modern Turkish state. For many years, the process was seen as follows: the Ottoman Empire was a counterpoint to great global frescoes which had li...

  1. Global environmental issues and electric power in the twenty-first century

    Hidy, G.M.; Spencer, D.F.

    1993-01-01

    Development of the electric utility industry in the 21st Century will be central to the well-being of mankind. Electricity worldwide is still likely to be produced mainly from fossil fuel combustion for the foreseeable future. On a global scale, this energy sector will contribute to growing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions through most of the next century. A potential for global climate alteration has been identified with accumulation of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth's atmosphere. If climate changes, adverse environmental effects are possible, acting on human systems, as well as on managed and natural ecosystems. Projected rates of increase in atmospheric CO 2 levels for the next century have motivated decision makers to consider early strategies for beginning to aggressively manage GHG emissions. The objective of this paper is to review the global issues associated with expected increases in gaseous emissions, particularly carbon dioxide from increased energy use, indicating the nature and significance of the issue. The authors emphasize a methodology integrating information on environmental issues with social and economic factors to develop informed international policies. The paper summarizes the technological choices available worldwide that could minimize the environmental impact of increasing energy use, particularly with respect to enhanced electricity production

  2. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H

    D. Wisser

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation and reservoir operations. The two sets of simulations allow the isolation of the trends arising from variations in the climate input driver alone and from human interventions. The sensitivity of the results to variations in input data was tested by using three global gridded datasets of precipitation.

    Our findings confirm that the expansion of irrigation and the construction of reservoirs has significantly and gradually impacted hydrological components in individual river basins. Variations in the volume of water entering the oceans annually, however, are governed primarily by variations in the climate signal alone with human activities playing a minor role. Globally, we do not find a significant trend in the terrestrial discharge over the last century.

    The largest impact of human intervention on the hydrological cycle arises from the operation of reservoirs that drastically changes the seasonal pattern of horizontal water transport in the river system and thereby directly and indirectly affects a number of processes such as ability to decompose organic matter or the cycling of nutrients in the river system.

  3. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use. (letter)

  4. Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

    Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

  5. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

  6. Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

    Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

    2013-01-01

    The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

  7. Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

    Cacuci, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

  8. Global analysis studies and applications

    Gliklikh, Yuri; Vershik, A

    1992-01-01

    This volume (a sequel to LNM 1108, 1214, 1334 and 1453) continues the presentation to English speaking readers of the Voronezh University press series on Global Analysis and Its Applications. The papers are selected fromtwo Russian issues entitled "Algebraic questions of Analysis and Topology" and "Nonlinear Operators in Global Analysis". CONTENTS: YuE. Gliklikh: Stochastic analysis, groups of diffeomorphisms and Lagrangian description of viscous incompressible fluid.- A.Ya. Helemskii: From topological homology: algebras with different properties of homological triviality.- V.V. Lychagin, L.V. Zil'bergleit: Duality in stable Spencer cohomologies.- O.R. Musin: On some problems of computational geometry and topology.- V.E. Nazaikinskii, B.Yu. Sternin, V.E.Shatalov: Introduction to Maslov's operational method (non-commutative analysis and differential equations).- Yu.B. Rudyak: The problem of realization of homology classes from Poincare up to the present.- V.G. Zvyagin, N.M. Ratiner: Oriented degree of Fredholm...

  9. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  10. Vision of energy supply in the 21st century: managing the global bonfire

    Duffey, R.B.

    1999-01-01

    Humans have lit a vast carbon-based bonfire that has fueled the world's economic and industrial development for the last 200 years. In that time, the impact of emissions into the atmosphere has become measurable, and has triggered debates on global warming and climate change as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gases. Growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use all the energy sources available to us in the 21st Century, to successfully manage and preserve the environment. Consistent with the need for continued human and economic growth and reduced emissions, we must use non-carbon sources for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels. Nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extending energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide an economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation. To illustrate these impacts we adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. We estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon based energy sources on atmospheric CO 2 concentration for the 21st Century. To stabilize CO 2 concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing about 30-40% of all the noncarbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century, and still keep the people of the world and their economic future moving and growing. The key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants becomes clear, whether or not the current worldwide value (∼7-10%) or a growing share of the energy market is assumed. We note that in the future, nuclear

  11. The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

    Sakmar, Susan

    2010-09-15

    As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

  12. Convex analysis and global optimization

    Tuy, Hoang

    2016-01-01

    This book presents state-of-the-art results and methodologies in modern global optimization, and has been a staple reference for researchers, engineers, advanced students (also in applied mathematics), and practitioners in various fields of engineering. The second edition has been brought up to date and continues to develop a coherent and rigorous theory of deterministic global optimization, highlighting the essential role of convex analysis. The text has been revised and expanded to meet the needs of research, education, and applications for many years to come. Updates for this new edition include: · Discussion of modern approaches to minimax, fixed point, and equilibrium theorems, and to nonconvex optimization; · Increased focus on dealing more efficiently with ill-posed problems of global optimization, particularly those with hard constraints;

  13. The global energy context: Chances and challenges for the 21st century

    Ott, G.

    2000-01-01

    Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2 billion people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency also in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

  14. The global energy context -- chances and challenges for the 21st century

    Ott, G.

    2002-01-01

    Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2000 million people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

  15. The globalization of tobacco use: 21 challenges for the 21st century.

    Glynn, Thomas; Seffrin, John R; Brawley, Otis W; Grey, Nathan; Ross, Hana

    2010-01-01

    The globalization of tobacco began more than 500 years ago, but the public health response to the death, disease, and economic disruption that it has caused is fewer than 50 years old. In this report, the authors briefly trace the history of tobacco use and commerce as it moved from the Americas in the late 15th century and then eastward. They then discuss the wide range of issues that must be addressed, and the equally wide range of expertise that is needed if the global health community is to be successful in reducing, and eventually eliminating, the rising tide of tobacco use, particularly in the low- and middle-income nations that are the target of the multinational tobacco industry.

  16. Nuclear energy and global warning - looking ahead to the 21st century

    Ion, M.

    1994-01-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use of energy. These include the fossil fuels consumption and nuclear energy proliferation, local and original environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect. Having in view the world population dynamics the future of energy use, and supply is less clear and predictable. Energy scenarios assuming explicit contributions from nuclear power to energy supply clearly show that global emissions of CO 2 - one of the most important gases linked to the greenhouse effect - can be substantially reduced if nuclear energy can further penetrate the electricity market. (Author)

  17. Flows method in global analysis

    Duong Minh Duc.

    1994-12-01

    We study the gradient flows method for W r,p (M,N) where M and N are Riemannian manifold and r may be less than m/p. We localize some global analysis problem by constructing gradient flows which only change the value of any u in W r,p (M,N) in a local chart of M. (author). 24 refs

  18. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    Michelini, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

  19. Global Curricular Legacies and Challenges for The Twenty-First Century

    Colin Brock

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to examine the evolution of what has become a near global and conventional school curriculum, the forces behind its development and the purposes of education, its sponsors and controllers espouse, and to set it against the massive and urgent challenges of the 21st century. This century looks to be a unique one in that it could be the tipping point between human and environmental survival, and disaster on a massive scale. The argument is that this near global view of the purpose of education is misconceived and dangerous unless there is rapid and fundamental change in the purposes of educating the young. Those older than 10 are mostly already 'lost'. In search of a more appropriate purpose and structure of curriculum, the work of a prominent few who are not yet 'lost' is drawn upon, especially that of George Martin. founder of the Oxford Martin School. The purpose of education must now, and urgently, be the survival of the human species and the planet, not only in basic terms but also in terms of controlling increasingly powerful and sophisticated computer technologies known as the Singularity that could spiral out of control.

  20. Portuguese knights-errant in nineteenth-century Paris and Rio: translation as response to exile in global cities

    Rita Bueno Maia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to uncover the role played by a series of picaresque novels translated into Portuguese and published in midnineteenth-century Paris in helping the Portuguese diaspora cope with the challenges of being a migrant in a global city. Through a contextual analysis, it will be argued that these novels were part of vaster cultural projects aimed at establishing solidarity networks among Portuguese exiles in Paris and, at the same time, at preserving multilingualism. By means of a textual analysis of Dom Severino Magriço ou o Dom Quichote portuguez (Paris, Pillet Fils Aîné, 1851, it will be suggested that this particular target text is committed to helping Portuguese migrants in Paris and in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, this novel illustrates ways of engaging with multiple Others, mainly through the reading and comparing of national literary canons.

  1. Global Multimodel Analsysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth Century

    Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Hazenberg, P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2013-01-01

    During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale. A multimodel ensemble analysis was carried out

  2. Globalization and environmental challenges. Reconceptualizing security in the 21{sup st} century

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City (MX). Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Economics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland); Chadha Behera, Navnita [Jamia Millia Islamia Univ., New Delhi (India). Nelson Mandela Center for Peace and Conflict Resolution; Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Nairobi Univ. (Kenya), Dept. of Private Law; Liotta, P.H. (eds.) [Salve Regina Univ., Newport, RI (United States). Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy

    2008-07-01

    Put quite simply, the twin impacts of globalization and environmental degradation pose new security dangers and concerns. In this comprehensive new work on global security thinking, 91 authors from five continents and many disciplines, from science and practice, assess the worldwide reassessment of the meaning of security triggered by the end of the Cold War and globalization, as well as the multifarious impacts of global environmental change in the early 21st century. Chapters address the theoretical, philosophical, ethical and religious and spatial context of security. They analyze the relationship between security, peace, development and environment. The authors move on to review the rethinking of security in international law, economics and political science, as well as in the key political, military and economic milieux. The book also examines the environmental security dimension and the adaptation of the institutional security concepts of the UN, EU and NATO, and analyzes the effect of change on regional security. Finally, it posits alternative security futures and draws conclusions for future research and action. (orig.)

  3. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  4. Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

    Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

  5. Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

    Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

  6. Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century

    Hwang, Jackelyn

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have considered the role of immigration in the rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying neighborhoods were “global” in the 1970s or became so over time. An early presence of Asians was positively associated with gentrification; and an early presence of Hispanics was positively associ...

  7. Science and technology for the 21. century: Meeting the needs of the global community

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This report summarizes the organization, activities and outcomes of Student Pugwash USA`s 1994 International Conference, Science and Technology for the 21st Century: Meeting the Needs of the Global Community. The Conference was held June 12--18, 1994 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, and brought together 91 students from 25 countries and over 65 experts from industry, academy, and government. Student Pugwash USA`s International Conference provided a valuable forum for talented students and professionals to engage in critical dialogue on many interdisciplinary issues at the junction of science, technology and society. The 1994 International Conference challenged students--the world`s future scientists, engineers, and political leaders--to think broadly about global problems and to devise policy options that are viable and innovative. In addition to afternoon and evening plenary sessions, six working groups met each morning of the Conference week. The working group themes featured: preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution for a secure future; resource stewardship for environmental sustainability; the social costs and medical benefits of human genetic information; overcoming barriers to health care education and delivery; meeting societal needs through communication and information technologies; and designing the future--from corporations to communities.

  8. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

    Schuyler, Qamar A.; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R.; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831921; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-01-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with

  9. Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

    Junsheng Li

    Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

  10. Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

    Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

    2017-12-01

    While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

  11. Educational Policy Development in China for the 21st Century: Rationality and Challenges in a Globalizing Age

    Li, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Policies are in the epicenter of, if not in the driving seat for, educational development in any societal context. Since the turn of the 21st century alongside China's re-emergence as a global superpower, educational policies in China have witnessed fundamental transformations as they have been maneuvered with ambitious plans for national,…

  12. Global Uranium And Thorium Resources: Are They Adequate To Satisfy Demand Over The Next Half Century?

    Lambert, I. B.

    2012-04-01

    This presentation will consider the adequacy of global uranium and thorium resources to meet realistic nuclear power demand scenarios over the next half century. It is presented on behalf of, and based on evaluations by, the Uranium Group - a joint initiative of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, of which the author is a Vice Chair. The Uranium Group produces a biennial report on Uranium Resources, Production and Demand based on information from some 40 countries involved in the nuclear fuel cycle, which also briefly reviews thorium resources. Uranium: In 2008, world production of uranium amounted to almost 44,000 tonnes (tU). This supplied approximately three-quarters of world reactor requirements (approx. 59,000 tU), the remainder being met by previously mined uranium (so-called secondary sources). Information on availability of secondary sources - which include uranium from excess inventories, dismantling nuclear warheads, tails and spent fuel reprocessing - is incomplete, but such sources are expected to decrease in market importance after 2013. In 2008, the total world Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources of uranium (recoverable at less than 130/kgU) amounted to 5.4 million tonnes. In addition, it is clear that there are vast amounts of uranium recoverable at higher costs in known deposits, plus many as yet undiscovered deposits. The Uranium Group has concluded that the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet projected high-case requirements for nuclear power for at least half a century. This conclusion does not assume increasing replacement of uranium by fuels from reprocessing current reactor wastes, or by thorium, nor greater reactor efficiencies, which are likely to ameliorate future uranium demand. However, progressively increasing quantities of uranium will need to be mined, against a backdrop of the relatively small number of producing facilities around the world, geopolitical uncertainties and

  13. 21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

    Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

  14. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  15. Reconciling past changes in Earth's rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk's enigma.

    Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Dumberry, Mathieu; Stanley, Sabine

    2015-12-01

    In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth's rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth's rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth's rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth's rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.

  16. Science Policy at the Wrong Scale and Without Adequate Political Institutions: Parallels between the U.S. 19th Century and the 21st Century Global Contexts

    McCurdy, K. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Constitution of the United States is a document for economic development written by people wary of government failure at the extremes, whether too heavy handed a central government or too loose a confederation. The strong central government favored by Hamilton, Industrialists and later by forward thinking men of the 19th century created a discontinuity wherein government institutions designed to facilitate agriculture were incapable of regulating corporations operating on a national scale, which made mineral and other natural resource exploitation needed to support industrialization enormously profitable. At the same time, Agriculturalists and other conservative citizens sought to control the economy by protecting their rural interests and power. The political institutional power remained with states as agriculturalists and industrialists struggled for economic superiority in the 19th century. As Agriculture moved west, Science warned of the dangers of extending Homesteading regulations into arid regions to no avail. The west was settled in townships without concern for watersheds, carrying capacity, or climatic variability. Gold seekers ignored the consequences of massive hydraulic mining techniques. The tension resident in the Constitution between strong local control of government (states' rights) and a strong central government (nationalism) provided no institutional context to resolve mining problems or other 19th century policy problems linked to rapid population expansion and industrialization. Environmental protection in the late 20th century has been the last wave of nationalized policy solutions following the institution-building blueprint provided by electoral successes in the Progressive, New Deal, and Great Society eras. Suddenly in the 21st century, scientific warnings of dangers again go unheeded, this time as evidence of global warming mounts. Again, tension in policy making exists in all political arenas (executive, legislative and judicial at

  17. Portuguese knights-errant in nineteenth-century Paris and Rio: translation as response to exile in global cities

    Rita Bueno Maia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7968.2017v37n1p159 This article aims to uncover the role played by a series of picaresque novels translated into Portuguese and published in midnineteenth-century Paris in helping the Portuguese diaspora cope with the challenges of being a migrant in a global city. Through a contextual analysis, it will be argued that these novels were part of vaster cultural projects aimed at establishing solidarity networks among Portuguese exiles in Paris and, at the same time, at preserving multilingualism. By means of a textual analysis of Dom Severino Magriço ou o Dom Quichote portuguez (Paris, Pillet Fils Aîné, 1851, it will be suggested that this particular target text is committed to helping Portuguese migrants in Paris and in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, this novel illustrates ways of engaging with multiple Others, mainly through the reading and comparing of national literary canons.

  18. Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

    Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

    2015-12-01

    A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

  19. PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

    Zucchiatti, A.; Climent-Font, A.; Enguita, O.; Fernandez-Jimenez, M.T.; Finaldi, G.; Garrido, C.; Matillas, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers

  20. Strategic Intelligence in a globalized world in Latin America: Challenges in the XXI century

    Boris Saavedra

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In general, intelligence has been classified as something mysterious due to the historical experiences in Latin America and the general ignorance about the true essence of intelligence as a primary activity of the State. This paper focuses on the analysis of the role of strategic intelligence as a fundamental element of public security and defense policy of a nation in Latin America. The changes occurring at the dawn of this century for the collection and analysis of intelligence are critical. The analysis of power, internet, digital technology, robotics and intelligent computers is responsible for the rapid changes of our history. Strategic Intelligence requires a comprehensive operational reform in five points: 1 Distinction as far as competition of intelligence agencies is concerned. 2 The dependence of the intelligence agencies. 3 Limiting the allocation of responsibility for domestic intelligence. 4 Establishing a coordinating body at the highest level of the State and 5 Effective external controls. These aspects are essential for a strategic intelligence system in line with present and future demands.

  1. Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

    Gregory, J.M.; White, N.J.; Church, J.A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Box, J.E.; Van den Broeke, M.R.; Cogley, J.G.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Huybrechts, P.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Leclercq, P.W.; Marzeion, B.; Oerlemans, J.; Tamisiea, M.E.; Wada, Y.; Wake, L.M.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

  2. Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

    Feng, Xiao

    2018-04-01

    In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

  3. Integrated Collaborative E-Learning for the Global Management Education in the 21st Century

    Son, Barbara W. K.

    2017-01-01

    Rapidly growing information and communications technology and a more interconnected global world offer benefits and challenges to global business organizations. While exploring benefits from global workforce and global production, they must successfully adapt to their local market conditions and manage their multicultural resources. How can we…

  4. Global Analysis of Minimal Surfaces

    Dierkes, Ulrich; Tromba, Anthony J

    2010-01-01

    Many properties of minimal surfaces are of a global nature, and this is already true for the results treated in the first two volumes of the treatise. Part I of the present book can be viewed as an extension of these results. For instance, the first two chapters deal with existence, regularity and uniqueness theorems for minimal surfaces with partially free boundaries. Here one of the main features is the possibility of 'edge-crawling' along free parts of the boundary. The third chapter deals with a priori estimates for minimal surfaces in higher dimensions and for minimizers of singular integ

  5. PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

    Zucchiatti, A.; Climent-Font, A.; Enguita, O.; Fernandez-Jimenez, M. T.; Finaldi, G.; Garrido, C.; Matillas, J. M.

    2005-10-01

    The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Análisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers.

  6. Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

    Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

    2018-02-01

    Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

  7. The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century - A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence.

    Chris Richard Kenyon

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance.1 A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (UK and Zimbabwe. The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2 National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3 Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990-1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence. WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables.In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3-5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990-1999 and 2008 than in the other world

  8. The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century

    Fujii, Yoshiaki

    2011-04-01

    This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.

  9. Border Crossing in Contemporary Brazilian Culture: Global Perspectives from the Twenty-First Century Literary Scene

    Cimara Valim de Melo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper investigates the process of internationalisation of Brazilian literature in the twenty-first century from the perspective of the publishing market. For this, we analyse how Brazil has responded to globalisation and what effects of cultural globalisation can be seen in the Brazilian literary scene, focusing on the novel. Observing the movement of the novelists throughout the globe, the reception of Brazilian literature in the United Kingdom and the relations between art and the literary market in Brazil, we intend to provoke some reflections on Brazilian cultural history in the light of the twenty-first century.

  10. South-South Universities Curriculum Characteristics and Global Collaboration in the 21st Century

    Obiekezie, Eucharia Obiageli; Essien, Margaret; Essien, Alexander Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Globalization imposes certain inescapable requirements on a university's curriculum. One such requirement is the elasticity of the curriculum to sustain local demands and accommodate global concerns. Using the ex post facto design, this paper examines the impact of global collaboration on the curriculum characteristics of selected universities in…

  11. Social Justice and the Global Economy: New Challenges for Social Work in the 21st Century

    Polack, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    The globalization of the economy creates new challenges for social work in the arenas of social and economic justice. This article outlines social justice issues related to the debt crisis of the Global South and sweatshops. A presentation of colonial precursors is followed by a detailed examination of these global institutions with an emphasis on…

  12. EDXRF analysis of books from 18 and 19 centuries

    Pereira, Marcelo O., E-mail: marcelocefetrj@gmail.com [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET), Nova Iguacu, RJ (Brazil); Calza, Cristiane; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu, E-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Freitas, Renato P., E-mail: renato.freitas@ifrj.edu.br [Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), Paracambi, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work reports the analysis of the elemental composition of paper employed in books from 18 and 19 centuries and also the characterization of pigments used to decorate its edges by means of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). The measurements were carried out with a portable system developed at the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), consisting of an Oxford TF3005 X-ray tube (with W anode) and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. The angle between the X-ray tube and the detector window is 60°, the source-sample and the detector-sample distances are 4 cm. Several spectra were obtained, working at 25 kV and 100 μA, with an acquisition time of 300 seconds and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The results identified the elemental composition of the paper used in the books and the use of the following pigments to decorate its edges: chromium yellow (PbCrO4), barium yellow (BaCrO{sub 4}), chromium oxide (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}) or viridian (Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}.H{sub 2}O), vermilion (HgS) and Prussian blue (Fe{sub 4}[Fe(CN){sub 6}]{sub 3}.14-16H{sub 2}O). These results revealed the presence of highly toxic elements/compounds - like lead, mercury and chromates - which were used in the manufacture of ancient pigments. This fact evidences that restorers, conservators and researchers who work directly with these kind of compounds need to take adequate safety measures and use personal protective equipment. (author)

  13. EDXRF analysis of books from 18 and 19 centuries

    Pereira, Marcelo O.; Calza, Cristiane; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Freitas, Renato P.

    2015-01-01

    This work reports the analysis of the elemental composition of paper employed in books from 18 and 19 centuries and also the characterization of pigments used to decorate its edges by means of Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF). The measurements were carried out with a portable system developed at the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), consisting of an Oxford TF3005 X-ray tube (with W anode) and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. The angle between the X-ray tube and the detector window is 60°, the source-sample and the detector-sample distances are 4 cm. Several spectra were obtained, working at 25 kV and 100 μA, with an acquisition time of 300 seconds and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The results identified the elemental composition of the paper used in the books and the use of the following pigments to decorate its edges: chromium yellow (PbCrO4), barium yellow (BaCrO 4 ), chromium oxide (Cr 2 O 3 ) or viridian (Cr 2 O 3 .H 2 O), vermilion (HgS) and Prussian blue (Fe 4 [Fe(CN) 6 ] 3 .14-16H 2 O). These results revealed the presence of highly toxic elements/compounds - like lead, mercury and chromates - which were used in the manufacture of ancient pigments. This fact evidences that restorers, conservators and researchers who work directly with these kind of compounds need to take adequate safety measures and use personal protective equipment. (author)

  14. Multiple Intelligences: The Most Effective Platform for Global 21st Century Educational and Instructional Methodologies

    McFarlane, Donovan A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) as the most viable and effective platform for 21st century educational and instructional methodologies based on the understanding of the value of diversity in today's classrooms and educational institutions, the unique qualities and characteristics of individual learners, the…

  15. The Meaning of the Global City: Jacques Ellul's Continued Relevance to 21st-Century Urbanism

    Toly, Noah

    2012-01-01

    Jacques Ellul's book, "The Meaning of the City," widely recognized as one of the most important twentieth century theological reflections on the city, was also one of his most controversial scholarly contributions. Many urbanists interpreted the book as demeaning the city and diminishing the importance of urban policy, planning, design,…

  16. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

    Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2?m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9?m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8?m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

  17. Shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance in global fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century

    Tian, H.; Lu, C.

    2016-12-01

    In addition to enhance agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically altered global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedbacks to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system/land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use over-simplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long period. In this study, we therefore develop a global time-series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in croplands, matched with HYDE 3,2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5º latitude by longitude during 1900-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961, when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) survey of country-level fertilizer input were available. Considering cropland expansion, increase of total fertilizer consumption amount is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer use shifted from the U.S. and Western Europe in the 1960s to East Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input show the similar pattern with additional hotspot in Brazil. We find a global increase of fertilizer N/P ratio by 0.8 g N/g P per decade (phuman impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global assessment on agricultural productivity, crop yield, agriculture-derived greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, land-to-aquatic nutrient loss, and ecosystem feedback to the climate system.

  18. Physically-based global downscaling climate change projections for a full century

    Ghan, S J; Shippert, T

    2005-01-01

    A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow

  19. Global analysis of muon decay measurements

    Gagliardi, C.A.; Tribble, R.E.; Williams, N.J.

    2005-01-01

    We have performed a global analysis of muon decay measurements to establish model-independent limits on the space-time structure of the muon decay matrix element. We find limits on the scalar, vector, and tensor coupling of right- and left-handed muons to right- and left-handed electrons. The limits on those terms that involve the decay of right-handed muons to left-handed electrons are more restrictive than in previous global analyses, while the limits on the other nonstandard model interactions are comparable. The value of the Michel parameter η found in the global analysis is -0.0036±0.0069, slightly more precise than the value found in a more restrictive analysis of a recent measurement. This has implications for the Fermi coupling constant G F

  20. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

    Prudhomme, C.; Giuntoli, L.; Robinson, E.L.; Clark, D.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Dankers, R.; Fekete, B.M.; Franssen, W.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models

  1. Identifying interprofessional global health competencies for 21st-century health professionals.

    Jogerst, Kristen; Callender, Brian; Adams, Virginia; Evert, Jessica; Fields, Elise; Hall, Thomas; Olsen, Jody; Rowthorn, Virginia; Rudy, Sharon; Shen, Jiabin; Simon, Lisa; Torres, Herica; Velji, Anvar; Wilson, Lynda L

    2015-01-01

    At the 2008 inaugural meeting of the Consortium of Universities for Global Health (CUGH), participants discussed the rapid expansion of global health programs and the lack of standardized competencies and curricula to guide these programs. In 2013, CUGH appointed a Global Health Competency Subcommittee and charged this subcommittee with identifying broad global health core competencies applicable across disciplines. The purpose of this paper is to describe the Subcommittee's work and proposed list of interprofessional global health competencies. After agreeing on a definition of global health to guide the Subcommittee's work, members conducted an extensive literature review to identify existing competencies in all fields relevant to global health. Subcommittee members initially identified 82 competencies in 12 separate domains, and proposed four different competency levels. The proposed competencies and domains were discussed during multiple conference calls, and subcommittee members voted to determine the final competencies to be included in two of the four proposed competency levels (global citizen and basic operational level - program oriented). The final proposed list included a total of 13 competencies across 8 domains for the Global Citizen Level and 39 competencies across 11 domains for the Basic Operational Program-Oriented Level. There is a need for continued debate and dialog to validate the proposed set of competencies, and a need for further research to identify best strategies for incorporating these competencies into global health educational programs. Future research should focus on implementation and evaluation of these competencies across a range of educational programs, and further delineating the competencies needed across all four proposed competency levels. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Global nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century: shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance

    Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-03-01

    In addition to enhancing agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically alters global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedback to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system and land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use oversimplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long periods. In this study, we therefore develop global time series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in agricultural lands, matched with HYDE 3.2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude-longitude during 1961-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates on per unit cropland area increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961 when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) surveys of country-level fertilizer input became available. Considering cropland expansion, the increase in total fertilizer consumption is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer application shifted from the US and western Europe in the 1960s to eastern Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input shows a similar pattern with an additional current hotspot in Brazil. We found a global increase in fertilizer N / P ratio by 0.8 g N g-1 P per decade (p human impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global models to assess the impacts of nutrient enrichment on climate system, water resources, food security, etc. Datasets available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.863323.

  3. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

    Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

    2013-11-15

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  4. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  5. The Island Image and Global Links in Puerto Rican Cinema of the 21st Century

    María Cristina Rodríguez

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This essay looks back at the production of Puerto Rican films in the 1980s and 1990s as the point of departure for young Puerto Rican filmmakers in the first decades of the 21st century. Even as the stories of this newer generation differ, their concern with the island image and diasporic movement continue to question Puerto Rican identity. Problems of local film production and outside distribution remain for each film project. This essay analyzes a number of key films by a diverse group of directors whose goal is to rethink the concept of a Puerto Rican cinema.

  6. Globalization and local response to epidemiological overlap in 21st century Ecuador

    Waters William F

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Third World countries are confronted by a complex overlay of two sets of health problems. Traditional maladies, including communicable diseases, malnutrition, and environmental health hazards coexist with emerging health challenges, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and increasing levels of obesity. Using Ecuador as an example, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for linking epidemiologic overlap to emerging social structures and processes at the national and global levels. Discussion Epidemiologic trends can be seen as part of broader processes related to globalization, but this does not imply that globalization is a monolithic force that inevitably and uniformly affects nations, communities, and households in the same manner. Rather, characteristics and forms of social organization at the subnational level can shape the way that globalization takes place. Thus, globalization has affected Ecuador in specific ways and is, at the same time, intimately related to the form in which the epidemiologic transition has transpired in that country. Summary Ecuador is among neither the poorest nor the wealthiest countries and its situation may illuminate trends in other parts of the world. As in other countries, insertion into the global economy has not taken place in a vacuum; rather, Ecuador has experienced unprecedented social and demographic change in the past several decades, producing profound transformation in its social structure. Examples of local represent alternatives to centralized health systems that do not effectively address the complex overlay of traditional and emerging health problems.

  7. Exploring the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemistry in global rivers during the twentieth century (Invited)

    Bouwman, L.; Beusen, A.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2013-12-01

    Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by soils, groundwater, riparian zones, floodplains, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. This paper analyzes the global changes in nutrient biogeochemical processes and retention in rivers during the past century (1900-2000); this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities including agriculture that have resulted in major changes in land use, nutrient use in agriculture, wastewater flows and human interventions in the hydrology (1). We use the hydrological PCR-GLOBWB model (2) for the period 1900-2000, including climate variability and the history of dam construction and land use conversion. Global agricultural and natural N and P soil budgets for the period 1900-2000 are the starting point to simulate nutrient flows from the soil via surface runoff and leaching through the groundwater system and riparian zones. In-stream processes are described with the nutrient spiraling concept. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal in harvested crops) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from nutrient delivery to streams and river nutrient export has increased rapidly in the 20th century. Model results are sensitive to factors determining the N and P delivery, as well as in-stream processes. The most uncertain factors are N delivery to streams by groundwater (denitrification as a function of thickness and reactivity of aquifers), and in-stream N and P retention parameters (net uptake velocity, retention as function of concentration). References 1. Bouwman AF, Beusen AHW, Griffioen J, Van Groenigen JW, Hefting MM, Oenema O, et al. Global trends and uncertainties in

  8. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  9. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  10. Democracy or Informational Autocracy? The Internet's Role in the Global Society of the 21st Century

    Tarcisio Teixeira

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Employing the deductive method, it analyzes the effects of the Internet, combined with the globalization context, in different sectors, from the economic aspect of the global ecommerce to the political consequences, which is inferred when ideological movements emerge on social networks. This incurs the current crisis scenario of state sovereignty, given the failure of states to regulate the virtual space, now marked by neoliberal practices and poorly distributed information. Finally, it contrasts with the Internet as an instrument of domination and social emancipation, in a scenario of excessive consumption of electronic devices and their use to achieve effective democracy.

  11. Energy: global issues and how these might impact on Australia in the 21 st century

    Duncan, I.J.

    1995-01-01

    The author discusses the issues associated with the increased world demand for energy, the reality of man-made greenhouse effect and their implication for the energy policy. In this context it became clearer that the conversion of small amounts of matter into energy, a process which mimics nature itself, will be one of the main and most elegant source of industrial energy. The environmental and health effects of the Chernobyl accident are also briefly discussed. It is concluded that in order to meet the growing demand for energy in the 21st century we should promote conservation where there is waste, and that based on social and economic circumstances both renewable sources and an acceptable, safe nuclear power industry should play an important role. 2 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  12. THE DISPUTE BETWEEN POLITICAL THEOLOGY AND THE POLITICS OF THEOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ON THE MEANINGS OF THE POSTMODERN GLOBALIZING AND INDIVIDUALISTIC SOCIETY AND THE CHRISTIAN PERSONALIST GLOBALITY

    Stelian MANOLACHE

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Upon the dawn of postmodernity, in the twenty-first century, we witness the emergence of a new way of thinking and of new forms of culture and life, under the ideology of globalism, whose dominance is given by the practicality and utility related to civilization, and under globality, which is the cultural aspect of globalization, pertaining to the field of culture. The two dimensions of globalization and globality, civilizational and cultural, will (requestion the principle relationship between Christianity and the new postmodern globalizing utopia, requiring to (reconsider the sense and presence of Christianity within the world, and the appropriate sociological figure of the Church, within the new reality of global and globalized humanity, in the postmodern public space. This paper deals with this ideology - globalism and the cultural manifestation of globality, and with the Orthodox answer to the new challenge of individualism and postmodern globalizing (neocollectivism.

  13. Forms and subannual variability of nitrogen and phosphorus loading to global river networks over the 20th century

    Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollón, José M.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Bouwman, Alexander F.

    2018-04-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. N and P transfer to surface freshwaters has amplified during the 20th century, which has led to widespread eutrophication problems. The contribution of different sources, natural and anthropogenic, to total N and P loading to river networks has recently been estimated yearly using the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment - Global Nutrient Model (IMAGE-GNM). However, eutrophic events generally result from a combination of physicochemical conditions governed by hydrological dynamics and the availability of specific nutrient forms that vary at subyearly timescales. In the present study, we define for each simulated nutrient source: i) its speciation, and ii) its subannual temporal pattern. Thereby, we simulate the monthly loads of different N (ammonium, nitrate + nitrite, and organic N) and P forms (dissolved and particulate inorganic P, and organic P) to global river networks over the whole 20th century at a half-degree spatial resolution. Results indicate that, together with an increase in the delivery of all nutrient forms to global rivers, the proportion of inorganic forms in total N and P inputs has risen from 30 to 43% and from 56 to 65%, respectively. The high loads originating from fertilized agricultural lands and the increasing proportion of sewage inputs have led to a greater proportion of DIN forms (ammonium and nitrate), that are usually more bioavailable. Soil loss from agricultural lands, which delivers large amounts of particle-bound inorganic P to surface freshwaters, has become the dominant P source, which is likely to lead to an increased accumulation of legacy P in slow flowing areas (e.g., lakes and reservoirs). While the TN:TP ratio of the loads has remained quite stable, the DIN:DIP molar ratio, which is likely to affect algal development the most, has increased from 18 to 27 globally. Human activities have also affected the

  14. The Global Positioning System and Education in the 21st Century.

    Wikle, Thomas A.

    2000-01-01

    Students should have an understanding of basic Global Positioning System (GPS) principles as well as an awareness of how the technology will impact society in the future. Provides a brief overview of the evolution, principles, and applications of GPS together with suggested activities. (Contains 25 references.) (Author/WRM)

  15. ECONOMIC ASPECTS REGARDING THE GLOBAL DIMENSION OF POVERTY IN THE XXI CENTURY

    PAUL-BOGDAN ZAMFIR

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we proposed to investigate the spread of poverty phenomenon on the global scale. Also we examined the causes and the efects of unequal distribution of global wealth, emphasing the impact of economic globalization on the deepening of poverty at the international comunity level. In the contemporary context of economic globalization the poverty is a scourge of the international community, that marks a dangerous gap between the many poor and the few rich. On the other hand, the poverty can be rightly considered the deprivation of population or certain population groups of welfare. In generally, for the common man, poverty means hunger, misery and diseases. Also, the poverty is an economical-legal phenomenon. The economic component of poverty consist in the deficiency of resources to ensure a decent standard of living and the access to basic services (health, education etc., while the legal dimension is reflected in the reduced possibility of a person or population groups to benefit from the civil rights and other fundamental rights, as well as the right to lead way of life which he desires or values.

  16. From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

    Derek Byerlee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutional contexts and political economy. In the current period of globalization, as land use changes associated with tropical commodities have accelerated, land issues are now at center stage in the global discourse. However, efforts to protect forests and the rights of local communities and indigenous groups continue to be ad hoc and codification of minimum standards and their implementation remains a work in progress. Given a widespread failure of state directed policies and institutions to curb deforestation and protect land rights, the private sector, with the exception of the rubber industry, is emphasizing voluntary standards to certify sustainability of their products. This is an important step but expectations that they will effectively address concerns about the impact of tropical commodities expansion might be too high, given their voluntary nature, demand constraints, and the challenge of including smallholders. It is also doubtful that private standards can more than partially compensate for long standing weaknesses in land governance and institutions on the forest frontier.

  17. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  18. Randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the 20th century climate data

    Teija Seitola

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we introduce a new algorithm called randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA, which is a generalisation of the traditional multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA into problems of arbitrarily large dimension. RMSSA consists of (1 a dimension reduction of the original data via random projections, (2 the standard MSSA step and (3 a recovery of the MSSA eigenmodes from the reduced space back to the original space. The RMSSA algorithm is presented in detail and additionally we show how to integrate it with a significance test based on a red noise null-hypothesis by Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, RMSSA is applied to decompose the 20th century global monthly mean near-surface temperature variability into its low-frequency components. The decomposition of a reanalysis data set and two climate model simulations reveals, for instance, that the 2–6 yr variability centred in the Pacific Ocean is captured by all the data sets with some differences in statistical significance and spatial patterns.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

    Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

  20. Antimicrobial Resistance Expressed by Neisseria gonorrhoeae: A Major Global Public Health Problem in the 21st Century.

    Unemo, Magnus; Del Rio, Carlos; Shafer, William M

    2016-06-01

    Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a strictly human pathogen that is typically transmitted by sexual contact. The associated disease gonorrhea has plagued humankind for thousands of years, with a current estimated incidence of 78 million cases per year. Advances in antimicrobial discovery in the 1920s and 1930s leading to the discovery of sulfonamides and penicillin begun the era of effective antimicrobial treatment of gonorrhea. Unfortunately, the gonococcus developed decreased susceptibility or even resistance to these initially employed antibiotics, a trend that continued over subsequent decades with each new antibiotic that was brought into clinical practice. As this pattern of resistance has continued into the 21st century, there is now reason for great concern, especially in an era when few new antibiotics have prospects for use as treatment of gonorrhea. Here, we review the history of gonorrhea treatment regimens and gonococcal resistance to antibiotics, the mechanisms of resistance, resistance monitoring schemes that exist in different international settings, global responses to the challenge of resistance, and prospects for future treatment regimens in the 21st century.

  1. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  2. Wealth, health and equity: convergence to divergence in late 20th century globalization.

    Taylor, Sebastian

    2009-01-01

    Debate over relationships between economic growth, wealth, health and health inequity is long-standing and ongoing. The main message of this paper is that economic growth, while necessary, is not a sufficient condition in itself for achieving equitable health. This review surveys and draws on research into principal factors commonly linked with improving health-income, health care, individual behavior-suggesting, using work from the Commission on Social Determinants of Health, that these are better understood in a broader social determinants of health framework. The paper acknowledges that post-war globalization has seen significant growth, poverty reduction and greater economic resources at individual and household levels all of which can contribute to better health. But it also highlights renewing inequity in global health during the period. It argues that over-reliance on market-driven growth, which fails to address deep-rooted social inequalities in economic resources key to accessing social determinants of health, and in the key determinants of health themselves have contributed to increasing inequity in health outcomes. Commitment to market-driven growth remains evident in national policy-making worldwide. With increasing health inequity, and calamitous global economic events in 2008-09, the centrality of this commitment needs urgently to be reviewed.

  3. Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  4. Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

    Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

    2016-04-01

    The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

  5. Finite element application to global reactor analysis

    Schmidt, F.A.R.

    1981-01-01

    The Finite Element Method is described as a Coarse Mesh Method with general basis and trial functions. Various consequences concerning programming and application of Finite Element Methods in reactor physics are drawn. One of the conclusions is that the Finite Element Method is a valuable tool in solving global reactor analysis problems. However, problems which can be described by rectangular boxes still can be solved with special coarse mesh programs more efficiently. (orig.) [de

  6. Vision of the global nuclear industry in the 21st century

    Barre, B.

    2002-01-01

    A major challenge facing mankind as we enter the XXIst century is to provide a greater fraction of a growing world population with a level of energy services allowing a decent way of life. This awesome challenge is worsened by the vital necessity to reduce the emission to the atmosphere of greenhouse effect gases, notably due to fossil fuel combustion. In this context, nuclear power cannot but be part of the world energy mix, and we might witness the premises of its second souffle. Present nuclear reactors are reliable safe and often very competitive; future reactors will be even safer and might find other use than the sole generation of electricity. One prerequisite for this second souffle is a better public acceptance of nuclear facilities, and part of this acceptance appears conditioned to the assurance of a proper management of the radioactive wastes issued from nuclear power. Nuclear wastes are properly and responsibly managed, but only on an interim basis : it is very important that final repositories for high level wastes are actually implemented.(author)

  7. Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat of the 21st Century: A Global Perspective

    Mir M. Ali

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The tall building is the most dominating symbol of the cities and a human-made marvel that defies gravity by reaching to the clouds. It embodies unrelenting human aspirations to build even higher. It conjures a number of valid questions in our minds. The foremost and fundamental question that is often asked: Why tall buildings? This review paper seeks to answer the question by laying out arguments against and for tall buildings. Then, it provides a brief account of the historic and recent developments of tall buildings including their status during the current economic recession. The paper argues that as cities continue to expand horizontally, to safeguard against their reaching an eventual breaking point, the tall building as a building type is a possible solution by way of conquering vertical space through agglomeration and densification. Case studies of some recently built tall buildings are discussed to illustrate the nature of tall building development in their respective cities. The paper attempts to dispel any discernment about tall buildings as mere pieces of art and architecture by emphasizing their truly speculative, technological, sustainable, and evolving nature. It concludes by projecting a vision of tall buildings and their integration into the cities of the 21st century.

  8. Conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization

    Pardalos, Panos

    2001-01-01

    There has been much recent progress in global optimization algo­ rithms for nonconvex continuous and discrete problems from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Convex analysis plays a fun­ damental role in the analysis and development of global optimization algorithms. This is due essentially to the fact that virtually all noncon­ vex optimization problems can be described using differences of convex functions and differences of convex sets. A conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization was held during June 5 -9, 2000 at Pythagorion, Samos, Greece. The conference was honoring the memory of C. Caratheodory (1873-1950) and was en­ dorsed by the Mathematical Programming Society (MPS) and by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Activity Group in Optimization. The conference was sponsored by the European Union (through the EPEAEK program), the Department of Mathematics of the Aegean University and the Center for Applied Optimization of the University of Florida, by th...

  9. Globalization of healthcare: case management in a 21st-century world.

    Craig, Kathy; Beichl, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    This article explains the current state of the global healthcare market with respect to international medical travel (medical tourism) and worldwide provider sourcing. Emphasis is placed on the traditional twin pillars of oversight: program accreditation and branding affiliation. These are discussed for their main strength, which is their ability to operate at a system-strata level. This strength also represents a primary weakness from the international patient's perspective, which is the functional gap between systemic oversight and bedside surveillance. International case management (ICM) is identified as the right conduit of patient-level service delivery that fills the gap between system and bedside. The ICM professional is introduced and defined as the provider of patient-centered quality and safety improvements, who coordinates and collaborates using international network connections and culture-sensitive in-country communication skills. The article's information is useful for healthcare practitioners who want to learn about the global medical marketplace. Practitioners who are preparing to or who already have business enterprises associated with the global healthcare market will also find the information helpful. Explanations and content are useful to case management generalists, specialists, and business developers. The content is intended for uptake by interested parties within and outside the healthcare practice arena. All research and syntheses were executed by the authors. Sources included business correspondences, medical tourism literature, corporate Internet profiles, news releases, and healthcare industry investigative and monitoring agencies. Clinical competencies stem from the international practice experiences of one author (K. Craig). International health insurance, economics, and financing expertise stems from other author (L. Beichl). This article launches the platform for development of checklists, tools, and guidelines for international case

  10. Global citizenship and the role of education in the twenty-first century

    Caruana, Philip

    2015-01-01

    This paper seeks to define concepts such as ‘citizenship’ and ‘global citizenship’ in a democracy and what it means to be ‘a good citizen’. It also seeks to explain that every individual can be ‘a good citizen’ in different situations and scenarios. Of the many agents responsible for the development of an individual, education, together with the home environment and culture, play an important part. Education is also the key to liberty and freedom, while the media is the key to accessing a ...

  11. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  12. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  13. Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

    Linda J Beaumont

    Full Text Available The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5. The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

  14. Internet Revolutions, Democratic Globalization and Elections Outcome in the Twenty-First Century: Echoes from Nigeria

    Abdullahi Muhammad Maigari

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the social contexts of the development and innovation of the science of global communication technology. It shows the significant roles the internet has played in the democratic process, and in particular, how it has influenced the outcomes of elections across developed and developing societies in an increasingly globalised community. This paper argues that Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, blogs and LinkedIn etc. serve as the mediums through which civil rights and democratic activism are expressed. It also argues that during the 2011 and 2015 General Elections in Nigeria, many electronic devices and online programs were developed and used on social media. Revoda enabled a parallel vote count, access to polling unit results, transmission of collated results and information about the entire electoral process. The paper stresses that the use of social media networks by both political candidates and electorates has greatly promoted civic engagement, credible elections and democratic activism in pre-election and post-election periods. This paper concludes that internet technology may soon assume the position of an effective and critically vital para-human actor in most global election outcomes in the near future.

  15. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-11-01

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade-1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade-1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model--having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models--we estimate that the warming slowdown (2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

  16. Medical Cosmopolitanism in Global Dubai: A Twenty-first-century Transnational Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) Depot.

    Inhorn, Marcia C

    2017-03-01

    Dubai-one of the seven United Arab Emirates and the Middle East's only "global city"-is gaining a reputation as a transnational medical tourism hub. Characterized by its "medical cosmopolitanism," Dubai is now attracting medical travelers from around the world, some of whom are seeking assisted conception. Dubai is fast becoming known as a new transnational "reprohub" for intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), the variant of in vitro fertilization designed to overcome male infertility. Based on ethnographic research conducted in one of the country's most cosmopolitan clinics, this article explores the ICSI treatment quests of infertile men coming to Dubai from scores of other nations. The case of an infertile British-Moroccan man is highlighted to demonstrate why ICSI is a particularly compelling "masculine hope technology" for infertile Muslim men. Thus, Muslim men who face barriers to ICSI access in their home countries may become "reprotravelers" to Dubai, an emergent ICSI depot. © 2016 by the American Anthropological Association.

  17. Relationship between the local, regional and global - Montenegro in the XXI century

    Vujačić Lidija

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cultural and demographic changes that Montenegro will be facing in the coming decades will be strongly influenced by both external and internal factors. First of all, they will be instigated by the national, and especially the European (cultural integration, and by the process of (cultural globalization. Migratory movements, associated with rapidly-surging migration of people across national borders will also take their toll on the acculturative processes in Montenegro. The aforementioned cultural dynamics can predominantly be observed with respect to general tendencies. However, it is possible to identify national cultural challenges and formulate the means of overpowering them in a way that is in line with the concept of democratic and multicultural development in Montenegro.

  18. Role of nuclear energy in the global energy picture of the 21st century

    Knizia, K.; Schwarz, D.

    1991-01-01

    Problems associated with fossil fuel (Gulf crisis, ecology, conservation, global warming) cannot be solved with saving and renewables alone. A larger nuclear share of electricity, electricity for more applications, and nuclear heat are needed. For the last, the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) is best suited. Its most important contribution would be the production of methanol as a motor fuel. Also nuclear steel-making, H 2 and CO for chemistry and refineries, A1 2 O 3 kilns, process steam for industry, oil production and desalination, district heating or production of H 2 , substitute natural gas, and liquefied coal for space heating should be considered. Later on, nuclear current and HTGR heat can be used to split water to produce hydrogen. An international effort is recommended to exploit these possibilities. (Author)

  19. Major impact: a global population policy can advance human development in the 21st century.

    Mcnamara, R S

    1992-12-01

    In Tokyo, Japan, former president of the World Bank, Robert McNamara, addressed the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute Symposium in April 1992. He reiterated a statement he made during his first presentation as president of the World Bank in September 1968--rapid population growth is the leading obstacle to economic growth and social well-being for people living in developing countries. He called for both developed and developing countries to individually and collectively take immediate action to reduce population growth rates, otherwise coercive action will be needed. Rapid population growth prevents countries from achieving sustainable development and jeopardizes our physical environment. It also exacerbates poverty, does not improve the role and status of women, adversely affects the health of children, and does not allow children a chance at a quality life. Even if developing countries were to quickly adopt replacement level fertility rates, high birth rates in the recent past prevent them from reducing fast population growth for decades. For example, with more than 60% of females in Kenya being at least 19 years old (in Sweden they represent just 23%), the population would continue to grow rapidly for 70 years if immediate reduction to replacement level fertility occurred. Mr. McNamara emphasized than any population program must center on initiating or strengthening extensive family planning programs and increasing the rate of economic and social progress. Successful family planning programs require diverse enough family planning services and methods to meet the needs of various unique populations, stressing of family planning derived health benefits to women and children, participation of both the public and private sectors, and political commitment. McNamara calculated that a global family planning program for the year 2000 would cost about US$8 billion. He added that Japan should increase its share of funds to population growth

  20. A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

    Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

    2017-01-01

    Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

  1. Unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal medicine: global disaster response in the 21st century.

    Andrews, Russell J; Quintana, Leonidas M

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations has recognized the devastating consequences of "unpredictable, unpreventable and impersonal" disasters-at least US $2 trillion in economic damage and more than 1.3 million lives lost from natural disasters in the last two decades alone. In many disasters (both natural and man-made) hundreds-and in major earthquakes, thousands-of lives are lost in the first days following the event because of the lack of medical/surgical facilities to treat those with potentially survivable injuries. Disasters disrupt and destroy not only medical facilities in the disaster zone but also infrastructure (roads, airports, electricity) and potentially local healthcare personnel as well. To minimize morbidity and mortality from disasters, medical treatment must begin immediately, within minutes ideally, but certainly within 24 h (not the days to weeks currently seen in medical response to disasters). This requires that all resources-medical equipment and support, and healthcare personnel-be portable and readily available; transport to the disaster site will usually require helicopters, as military medical response teams in developed countries have demonstrated. Some of the resources available and in development for immediate medical response for disasters-from portable CT scanners to telesurgical capabilities-are described. For immediate deployment, these resources-medical equipment and personnel-must be ready for deployment on a moment's notice and not require administrative approvals or bureaucratic authorizations from numerous national and international agencies, as is presently the case. Following the "trauma center/stroke center" model, disaster response incorporating "disaster response centers" would be seamlessly integrated into the ongoing daily healthcare delivery systems worldwide, from medical education and specialty training (resident/registrar) to acute and subacute intensive care to long-term rehabilitation. The benefits of such a global disaster

  2. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  3. The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century – A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence

    Kenyon, Chris Richard; Osbak, Kara; Tsoumanis, Achilleas

    2016-01-01

    Background How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008

  4. Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21(st) Century.

    Gubler, Duane J

    2011-12-01

    Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world's population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

  5. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-01-01

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

  6. Global meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies.

    José Caldas

    Full Text Available Transcriptomics meta-analysis aims at re-using existing data to derive novel biological hypotheses, and is motivated by the public availability of a large number of independent studies. Current methods are based on breaking down studies into multiple comparisons between phenotypes (e.g. disease vs. healthy, based on the studies' experimental designs, followed by computing the overlap between the resulting differential expression signatures. While useful, in this methodology each study yields multiple independent phenotype comparisons, and connections are established not between studies, but rather between subsets of the studies corresponding to phenotype comparisons. We propose a rank-based statistical meta-analysis framework that establishes global connections between transcriptomics studies without breaking down studies into sets of phenotype comparisons. By using a rank product method, our framework extracts global features from each study, corresponding to genes that are consistently among the most expressed or differentially expressed genes in that study. Those features are then statistically modelled via a term-frequency inverse-document frequency (TF-IDF model, which is then used for connecting studies. Our framework is fast and parameter-free; when applied to large collections of Homo sapiens and Streptococcus pneumoniae transcriptomics studies, it performs better than similarity-based approaches in retrieving related studies, using a Medical Subject Headings gold standard. Finally, we highlight via case studies how the framework can be used to derive novel biological hypotheses regarding related studies and the genes that drive those connections. Our proposed statistical framework shows that it is possible to perform a meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies with arbitrary experimental designs by deriving global expression features rather than decomposing studies into multiple phenotype comparisons.

  7. Examining the Efficacy of Project-Based Learning on Cultivating the 21st Century Skills among High School Students in a Global Context

    Lin, Chi-Syan; Ma, Jung-Tsan; Kuo, Karen Yi-Chwen; Chou, Chien-Tzu Candace

    2015-01-01

    The goal of the study is to explore the opportunities and challenges associated with Project-Based Learning strategy in a global context on the aspects of both fostering learning community of practices and nurturing the 21st century skills. For collecting empirical data, the study implements and administers an online international project-based…

  8. Rethinking Teacher Education: Synchronizing Eastern and Western Views of Teaching and Learning to Promote 21st Century Skills and Global Perspectives

    Smith, Judith; Hu, Ran

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to share findings with educators across disciplines of how to incorporate an eastern and western blended philosophy of teaching and learning to promote 21st century skills and global perspectives. Drawing from a previous self-study of their views of teaching and learning between Chinese and American cultures, the two…

  9. Sun-genesis 21: Empowering the global village in the digital age and the solar century

    Hamasaki, Les [Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2000-07-01

    Sun-Genesis 21 is a global economic development plan for creating an environmentally sustainable future in the developing world. Its premise is that the solution to the survival of civil stability and democracy in developing countries in the Information Age is to slow the migration of the rural poor into the urban centers as well as dispersing some of the residents of the already impacted cities into new agro-communities. This strategy envisions empowering the 25 million coffee farmers located in the poorest countries in the world to control their own economic destiny by marketing their products directly to the international marketplace over the World Wide Web (Coffee Belt Plan 2020). The plan also envisions creating a network of new agricultural communities called World Farm Solar Telecommunities that utilizes telecommunications and environmental technologies to disperse the impacted urban population. Proven profitable commodities such as industrial hemp, aloe vera, and aquacultural farming will be the economic foundation of these agro-communities. The goal is to empower rural agro-entrepreneurs to become an economic engine for job creation and be able to afford the Coffee Solar Televillages that include distant learning centers, telemedicine clinics, food processing centers, e-commerce centers, and solar crop-drying centers. The Genesis 21 program includes creative financing strategies to deal with these massive problems of poverty and hunger through the concept of trade, not aid, including the use of barter in a proposed Green Technology for Green Coffee program. [Spanish] Sun-Genesis 21 es un plan global de desarrollo economico para crear un futuro ambiental sustentable en el mundo en desarrollo. La premisa del plan es que la solucion para la supervivencia de la estabilidad civil y la democracia en paises en desarrollo dentro de la Era de la Informacion es desacelerar la migracion de la gente pobre de las areas rurales hacia los centros urbanos, asi como

  10. Intelligent Data Analysis in the 21st Century

    Cohen, Paul; Adams, Niall

    When IDA began, data sets were small and clean, data provenance and management were not significant issues, workflows and grid computing and cloud computing didn’t exist, and the world was not populated with billions of cellphone and computer users. The original conception of intelligent data analysis — automating some of the reasoning of skilled data analysts — has not been updated to account for the dramatic changes in what skilled data analysis means, today. IDA might update its mission to address pressing problems in areas such as climate change, habitat loss, education, and medicine. It might anticipate data analysis opportunities five to ten years out, such as customizing educational trajectories to individual students, and personalizing medical protocols. Such developments will elevate the conference and our community by shifting our focus from arbitrary measures of the performance of isolated algorithms to the practical, societal value of intelligent data analysis systems.

  11. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  12. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

    Groisman, Pavel; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Maksyutov, Shamil; Qi, Jiaguo

    2016-04-01

    During the past 12 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research

  13. Global Food Security Support Analysis Data (GFSAD) Crop Mask 2010 Global 1 km V001

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Global Food Security Support Analysis Data (GFSAD) Crop Mask Global 1 kilometer...

  14. A century of enzyme kinetic analysis, 1913 to 2013.

    Johnson, Kenneth A

    2013-09-02

    This review traces the history and logical progression of methods for quantitative analysis of enzyme kinetics from the 1913 Michaelis and Menten paper to the application of modern computational methods today. Following a brief review of methods for fitting steady state kinetic data, modern methods are highlighted for fitting full progress curve kinetics based upon numerical integration of rate equations, including a re-analysis of the original Michaelis-Menten full time course kinetic data. Finally, several illustrations of modern transient state kinetic methods of analysis are shown which enable the elucidation of reactions occurring at the active sites of enzymes in order to relate structure and function. Copyright © 2013 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21. century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; Noblet-Ducoudre, N. de; Kato, E.

    2014-01-01

    Bio-geophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO 2 simulations for the 21. century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO 2 -fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. (authors)

  16. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  17. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    Sudret, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices

  18. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr

    2008-07-15

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.

  19. Updated Global Analysis of Higgs Couplings

    Ellis, John

    2013-01-01

    There are many indirect and direct experimental indications that the new particle H discovered by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations has spin zero and (mostly) positive parity, and that its couplings to other particles are correlated with their masses. Beyond any reasonable doubt, it is a Higgs boson, and here we examine the extent to which its couplings resemble those of the single Higgs boson of the Standard Model. Our global analysis of its couplings to fermions and massive bosons determines that they have the same relative sign as in the Standard Model. We also show directly that these couplings are highly consistent with a dependence on particle masses that is linear to within a few %, and scaled by the conventional electroweak symmetry-breaking scale to within 10%. We also give constraints on loop-induced couplings, on the total Higgs decay width, and on possible invisible decays of the Higgs boson under various assumptions.

  20. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification

  1. Global Surface Warming Hiatus Analysis Data

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data were used to conduct the study of the global surface warming hiatus, an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998....

  2. Analysis of Globalization, the Planet and Education

    Tsegay, Samson Maekele

    2016-01-01

    Thorough the framework of theories analyzing globalization and education, this paper focuses on the intersection among globalization, the environment and education. This paper critically analyzes how globalization could affect environmental devastation, and explore the role of pedagogies that could foster planetary citizenship by exposing…

  3. Introduction to global analysis minimal surfaces in Riemannian manifolds

    Moore, John Douglas

    2017-01-01

    During the last century, global analysis was one of the main sources of interaction between geometry and topology. One might argue that the core of this subject is Morse theory, according to which the critical points of a generic smooth proper function on a manifold M determine the homology of the manifold. Morse envisioned applying this idea to the calculus of variations, including the theory of periodic motion in classical mechanics, by approximating the space of loops on M by a finite-dimensional manifold of high dimension. Palais and Smale reformulated Morse's calculus of variations in terms of infinite-dimensional manifolds, and these infinite-dimensional manifolds were found useful for studying a wide variety of nonlinear PDEs. This book applies infinite-dimensional manifold theory to the Morse theory of closed geodesics in a Riemannian manifold. It then describes the problems encountered when extending this theory to maps from surfaces instead of curves. It treats critical point theory for closed param...

  4. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1 shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  5. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  6. Stability of fundamental couplings: A global analysis

    Martins, C. J. A. P.; Pinho, A. M. M.

    2017-01-01

    Astrophysical tests of the stability of fundamental couplings are becoming an increasingly important probe of new physics. Motivated by the recent availability of new and stronger constraints we update previous works testing the consistency of measurements of the fine-structure constant α and the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ =mp/me (mostly obtained in the optical/ultraviolet) with combined measurements of α , μ and the proton gyromagnetic ratio gp (mostly in the radio band). We carry out a global analysis of all available data, including the 293 archival measurements of Webb et al. and 66 more recent dedicated measurements, and constraining both time and spatial variations. While nominally the full data sets show a slight statistical preference for variations of α and μ (at up to two standard deviations), we also find several inconsistencies between different subsets, likely due to hidden systematics and implying that these statistical preferences need to be taken with caution. The statistical evidence for a spatial dipole in the values of α is found at the 2.3 sigma level. Forthcoming studies with facilities such as ALMA and ESPRESSO should clarify these issues.

  7. Spring and Its Global Echo: Quantitative Analysis

    A. V. Korotayev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which signifi cantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all world-system zones. Only in 2011 the growth of the global number of largescale anti-government demonstrations, riots and political strikes was to a high degree (although not entirely due to their growth in the Arab world. In the ensuing years, the Arab countries rather made a negative contribution to a very noticeable further increase in the global number of large-scale anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes (the global intensity of all these three important types of socio-political destabilization continued to grow despite the decline in the Arab world. Thus, for all these three important indicators of sociopolitical destabilization, the scale of the global echo of the Arab Spring has overshadowed the scale of the Arab Spring itself. Only as regards the fourth considered indicator (major terrorist attacks / guerrilla warfare the scale of the global echo for the entire period considered did not overshadow the scale of the Arab Spring (and, incidentally, «Winter» - and in 2014-2015 Arab countries continued to make a disproportionate contribution to the historically record global values of this sad indicator – global number of major terrorist attacks/ guerilla warfare. To conclude, triggered by the Arab Spring, the global wave of socio-political destabilization led after 2010 to a very signifi cant growth of socio-political instability in absolutely all World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not completely synchronously.

  8. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  9. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  10. Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

    Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

    2013-05-02

    A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

  11. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  12. Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

    Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

    2012-12-01

    Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present

  13. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

    2011-01-01

    In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  14. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  15. Global Analysis of Photosynthesis Transcriptional Regulatory Networks

    Imam, Saheed; Noguera, Daniel R.; Donohue, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    Photosynthesis is a crucial biological process that depends on the interplay of many components. This work analyzed the gene targets for 4 transcription factors: FnrL, PrrA, CrpK and MppG (RSP_2888), which are known or predicted to control photosynthesis in Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq) identified 52 operons under direct control of FnrL, illustrating its regulatory role in photosynthesis, iron homeostasis, nitrogen metabolism and regulation of sRNA synthesis. Using global gene expression analysis combined with ChIP-seq, we mapped the regulons of PrrA, CrpK and MppG. PrrA regulates ∼34 operons encoding mainly photosynthesis and electron transport functions, while CrpK, a previously uncharacterized Crp-family protein, regulates genes involved in photosynthesis and maintenance of iron homeostasis. Furthermore, CrpK and FnrL share similar DNA binding determinants, possibly explaining our observation of the ability of CrpK to partially compensate for the growth defects of a ΔFnrL mutant. We show that the Rrf2 family protein, MppG, plays an important role in photopigment biosynthesis, as part of an incoherent feed-forward loop with PrrA. Our results reveal a previously unrealized, high degree of combinatorial regulation of photosynthetic genes and significant cross-talk between their transcriptional regulators, while illustrating previously unidentified links between photosynthesis and the maintenance of iron homeostasis. PMID:25503406

  16. Global analysis of photosynthesis transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Saheed Imam

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Photosynthesis is a crucial biological process that depends on the interplay of many components. This work analyzed the gene targets for 4 transcription factors: FnrL, PrrA, CrpK and MppG (RSP_2888, which are known or predicted to control photosynthesis in Rhodobacter sphaeroides. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq identified 52 operons under direct control of FnrL, illustrating its regulatory role in photosynthesis, iron homeostasis, nitrogen metabolism and regulation of sRNA synthesis. Using global gene expression analysis combined with ChIP-seq, we mapped the regulons of PrrA, CrpK and MppG. PrrA regulates ∼34 operons encoding mainly photosynthesis and electron transport functions, while CrpK, a previously uncharacterized Crp-family protein, regulates genes involved in photosynthesis and maintenance of iron homeostasis. Furthermore, CrpK and FnrL share similar DNA binding determinants, possibly explaining our observation of the ability of CrpK to partially compensate for the growth defects of a ΔFnrL mutant. We show that the Rrf2 family protein, MppG, plays an important role in photopigment biosynthesis, as part of an incoherent feed-forward loop with PrrA. Our results reveal a previously unrealized, high degree of combinatorial regulation of photosynthetic genes and significant cross-talk between their transcriptional regulators, while illustrating previously unidentified links between photosynthesis and the maintenance of iron homeostasis.

  17. State of the Climate - Global Analysis

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  18. Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis ...

    Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Couverture du livre Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa. Directeur(s) : Dzodzi Tsikata et Pamela Golah. Maison(s) d'édition : Zubaan, CRDI. 29 août 2009. ISBN : 9788189884727.

  19. About role of 'Nuclear sciences' and other trends of scientific and technological works in innovation development of phenomena and globalization processes in XX and XXI centuries

    Arifov, P.V.; Azimova, D.S.; Trostyanskij, D.V.; Umarov, A.G.

    2005-01-01

    It is concluded, that just successful development of scientific and technological works in the field 'Nuclear Sciences' results economy advantages for USA and some West countries compared with USSR and the rest countries of East Europe. In the following decades this advantage allows to a leader-countries develop with success principally new trends of scientific, technological workings in the a wide-scale sphere of natural, technical, biomedical, and other related sciences. Here soon the USA gap from other world countries was achieved. In the field of fundamental sciences there are such fields: Computer Sciences (1940 and then), Space Sciences (1950 and then), Life Sciences (1960 and then), Computer tomography Sciences (1970 and then). Material Researches Sciences (1980 and then), Internet Sciences (1994 and then), Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (1999 and then). In the end of XX century these advantages allow to USA to realize two known global innovation initiatives having National character: Ballistic Missile Defense - from 1983, Internet - from 1994, and to declare the third one - targeting to the XXI century - Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies - from 1999. It is noted, that due to unexampled high temps of development of phenomena and globalization in the XXI century the specialists and professionals of Uzbekistan in the shortest time have to learn the newest world experience in order to ensure worthy status for the young independent state in the world developed countries commonwealth in new age

  20. Global Analysis of a Planetary Gear Train

    Tongjie Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using the Poincaré-like cell-to-cell mapping method and shooting method, the global characteristics of a planetary gear train are studied based on the torsional vibration model with errors of transmission, time-varying meshing stiffness, and multiple gear backlashes. The study results reveal that the planetary with a certain set of parameters has four coexisting periodic orbits, which are P-1, P-2, P-4, and P-8, respectively. P-1 and P-2 motions are not of long-term stability, P-8 motion is of local stability, and P-4 motion is of global stability. Shooting method does not have the capacity of searching coexisting periodic orbits in a global scope, and it is easy to omit some periodic orbits which are far away from the main gropes of periodic orbits.

  1. Information Communication Technology, State building, and Globalization in the 21st Century: Regional Frameworks for Emerging State Assistance

    Reese, Justin Y

    2008-01-01

    .... Globalization has modified the essential role of the nation-state towards managing global flows of resource, capital, and populations rather than, as in the past, presiding over distinct national economies...

  2. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  3. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  4. Global Proteome Analysis of Leptospira interrogans

    Comparative global proteome analyses were performed on Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni grown under conventional in vitro conditions and those mimicking in vivo conditions (iron limitation and serum presence). Proteomic analyses were conducted using iTRAQ and LC-ESI-tandem mass spectrometr...

  5. Isolating the Meteorological Impact of 21st Century GHG Warming on the Removal and Atmospheric Loading of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter Pollution at Global Scale

    Xu, Yangyang; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2018-03-01

    Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses health threats to human population. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5%-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause of the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Our results suggest climate change impact needs to be accounted for to define the future emission standards necessary to meet air quality standard.

  6. Forms and subannual variability of nitrogen and phosphorus loading to global river networks over the 20th century

    Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollón, José M.; Beusen, Arthur H.W.; Bouwman, Alexander F.

    2018-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. N and P transfer to surface freshwaters has amplified during the 20th century, which has led to widespread eutrophication problems. The contribution of different sources, natural and

  7. Explosive eruption of El Chichon volcano (Mexico) disrupted 6th century Maya civilization and contributed to global cooling

    Nooren, Kees; Hoek, Wim Z.; van der Plicht, Hans; Sigl, Michael; van Bergen, Manfred J.; Galop, Didier; Torrescano-Valle, Nuria; Islebe, Gerald; Huizinga, Annika; Winkels, Tim; Middelkoop, Hans

    A remarkably long period of Northern Hemispheric cooling in the 6th century CE, which disrupted human societies across large parts of the globe, has been attributed to volcanic forcing of climate. A major tropical eruption in 540 CE is thought to have played a key role, but there is no consensus

  8. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  9. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  10. Current issues and challenges in global analysis of parton distributions

    Tung, Wu-Ki

    2007-01-01

    A new implementation of precise perturbative QCD calculation of deep inelastic scattering structure functions and cross sections, incorporating heavy quark mass effects, is applied to the global analysis of the full HERA I data sets on NC and CC cross sections, in conjunction with other experiments. Improved agreement between the NLO QCD theory and the global data sets are obtained. Comparison of the new results to that of previous analysis based on conventional zero-mass parton formalism is made. Exploratory work on implications of new fixed-target neutrino scattering and Drell-Yan data on global analysis is also discussed. (author)

  11. Mapping the global health employment market: an analysis of global health jobs.

    Keralis, Jessica M; Riggin-Pathak, Brianne L; Majeski, Theresa; Pathak, Bogdan A; Foggia, Janine; Cullinen, Kathleen M; Rajagopal, Abbhirami; West, Heidi S

    2018-02-27

    The number of university global health training programs has grown in recent years. However, there is little research on the needs of the global health profession. We therefore set out to characterize the global health employment market by analyzing global health job vacancies. We collected data from advertised, paid positions posted to web-based job boards, email listservs, and global health organization websites from November 2015 to May 2016. Data on requirements for education, language proficiency, technical expertise, physical location, and experience level were analyzed for all vacancies. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the aforementioned job characteristics. Associations between technical specialty area and requirements for non-English language proficiency and overseas experience were calculated using Chi-square statistics. A qualitative thematic analysis was performed on a subset of vacancies. We analyzed the data from 1007 global health job vacancies from 127 employers. Among private and non-profit sector vacancies, 40% (n = 354) were for technical or subject matter experts, 20% (n = 177) for program directors, and 16% (n = 139) for managers, compared to 9.8% (n = 87) for entry-level and 13.6% (n = 120) for mid-level positions. The most common technical focus area was program or project management, followed by HIV/AIDS and quantitative analysis. Thematic analysis demonstrated a common emphasis on program operations, relations, design and planning, communication, and management. Our analysis shows a demand for candidates with several years of experience with global health programs, particularly program managers/directors and technical experts, with very few entry-level positions accessible to recent graduates of global health training programs. It is unlikely that global health training programs equip graduates to be competitive for the majority of positions that are currently available in this field.

  12. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Biological Sciences for the 21st Century: Meeting the Challenges of Sustainable Development in an Era of Global Change

    Joel Cracraft; Richard O' Grady

    2007-05-12

    The symposium was held 10-12 May, 2007 at the Capitol Hilton Hotel in Washington, D. C. The 30 talks explored how some of today's key biological research developments (such as biocomplexity and complex systems analysis, bioinformatics and computational biology, the expansion of molecular and genomics research, and the emergence of other comprehensive or system wide analyses, such as proteomics) contribute to sustainability science. The symposium therefore emphasized the challenges facing agriculture, human health, sustainable energy, and the maintenance of ecosystems and their services, so as to provide a focus and a suite of examples of the enormous potential contributions arising from these new developments in the biological sciences. This symposium was the first to provide a venue for exploring how the ongoing advances in the biological sciences together with new approaches for improving knowledge integration and institutional science capacity address key global challenges to sustainability. The speakers presented new research findings, and identified new approaches and needs in biological research that can be expected to have substantial impacts on sustainability science.

  14. "Competing Conceptions of Globalization" Revisited: Relocating the Tension between World-Systems Analysis and Globalization Analysis

    Clayton, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, many scholars have become fascinated by a contemporary, multidimensional process that has come to be known as "globalization." Globalization originally described economic developments at the world level. More specifically, scholars invoked the concept in reference to the process of global economic integration and the seemingly…

  15. Global analysis of the protection status of the world's forests

    Schmitt, Christine B.; Burgess, Neil David; Coad, Lauren

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information...... on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39 million...... km2. Of this, 7.7% fell within protected areas under IUCN management categories I-IV. With the inclusion of IUCN categories V and VI, the level of global forest protection increased to 13.5%. Percentage forest protection (IUCN I-IV) varied greatly between realms from 5.5% (Palearctic) to 13...

  16. The disease of corruption: views on how to fight corruption to advance 21st century global health goals.

    Mackey, Tim K; Kohler, Jillian Clare; Savedoff, William D; Vogl, Frank; Lewis, Maureen; Sale, James; Michaud, Joshua; Vian, Taryn

    2016-09-29

    Corruption has been described as a disease. When corruption infiltrates global health, it can be particularly devastating, threatening hard gained improvements in human and economic development, international security, and population health. Yet, the multifaceted and complex nature of global health corruption makes it extremely difficult to tackle, despite its enormous costs, which have been estimated in the billions of dollars. In this forum article, we asked anti-corruption experts to identify key priority areas that urgently need global attention in order to advance the fight against global health corruption. The views shared by this multidisciplinary group of contributors reveal several fundamental challenges and allow us to explore potential solutions to address the unique risks posed by health-related corruption. Collectively, these perspectives also provide a roadmap that can be used in support of global health anti-corruption efforts in the post-2015 development agenda.

  17. China's food economy in the early 21st Century; Development of China's food economy and its impact on global trade and on the EU

    Tongeren, van F.W.; Huang, J.

    2004-01-01

    Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assesment of impacts

  18. Preparing to Understand Feminism in the Twenty-First Century: Global Social Change, Women's Work, and Women's Movements

    Torry Dickinson

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The history of women's non-wage work, women's wage labor, and contemporary women's movements can be understood with greater clarity if studies of "globalization", feminism, and the capitalist world-economy are examined in relationship to each other. Today many women's movements clearly reflect, respond to, and attempt to shape changes in wage (employer-organized and non-wage (labor-organized work relations. This paper is a conceptual, theoretical and historical exploration of how scholars, who study inter-related global areas, can prepare to do research on women's work and women's movements that will contribute to the development of "globalization", feminist, and world-economy scholarship.

  19. A comparative analysis of international frameworks for 21st century competences: implications for national curriculum policies

    Voogt, Joke; Pareja Roblin, N.N.

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites

  20. A Comparative Analysis of International Frameworks for 21st Century Competences: Implications for National Curriculum Policies

    Voogt, Joke; Roblin, Natalie Pareja

    2012-01-01

    National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites of the selected frameworks, resulting in 32…

  1. PIXE analysis of Moroccan architectural glazed ceramics of 14th-18th centuries

    Zucchiatti, A.; Azzou, A.; El Amraoui, M.; Haddad, M.; Bejjit, L.; Ait Lyazidi, S.

    2009-01-01

    The PIXE analysis of glazes and ceramic bodies of a set of architectural glazed ceramics (mostly the zellige mosaics), sampled from seven Moroccan monuments from the 14th to the 18th century AD, has been performed. We have identified high lead glazes, opacified with tin-oxide, laid over a calciferous body to produce hard tiles easy to chisel as required by the zellige technique. The analysis has revealed significant differences between the monuments examined: in particular in the formulation of the base glass and in the use of stains to produce coloured glazes. We observed the peculiarity of materials used in Marrakech and we could distinguish, both in terms of glazes and ceramic bodies, the two almost contemporary Madersas dedicated to the sultan Bou Inan, one in Meknes the other in Fez. The PIXE measurements integrate a broad range of spectrometric investigations performed in the past few years. (author)

  2. Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries)

    Amorim, Inês; Sousa Silva, Luís; Garcia, João Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries) Inês Amorim CITCEM, Department of History, Political and International Studies, U. of Porto, Portugal. Luís Sousa Silva CITCEM, PhD Fellowship - FCT. João Carlos Garcia CIUHCT, Geography Department, U. of Porto, Portugal. The first major national project on Historical Climatology in Portugal, called "KLIMHIST: Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources (17th-19th centuries)", ended in September 2015, coordinated by Maria João Alcoforado. This project began in March 2012 and counted on an interdisciplinary team of researchers from four Portuguese institutions (Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, University of Porto, and University of Évora), from different fields of knowledge (Geography, History, Biology, Climatology and Meteorology). The team networked and collaborated with other international research groups on Climate Change and Historical Climatology, resulting in several publications. This project aimed to reconstruct thermal and rainfall patterns in Portugal between the 17th and 19th centuries, as well as identify the main hydrometeorological extremes that occurred over that period. The basic methodology consisted in combining information from different types of anthropogenic sources (descriptive and instrumental) and natural sources (tree rings and geothermal holes), so as to develop climate change models of the past. The data collected were stored in a digital database, which can be searched by source, date, location and type of event. This database, which will be made publically available soon, contains about 3500 weather/climate-related records, which have begun to be studied, processed and published. Following this seminal project, other initiatives have taken place in Portugal in the area of Historical Climatology, namely a Ph

  3. The Global Events and Processes Impact on the Tourism Development in the Czech Republic in the 21st Century

    Janečková, Martina

    2009-01-01

    The thesis analyses the essential determinants of the global importance which are currently causing the turbulent changes in the immediate and wider context of leisure and travel. The tourism industry is an important part of the national economy and the lifestyle. The global factors and their impact on the field of tourism were identified through the academic resources and a survey realized in Autumn and Winter 2009/10. A questionnaire was used for data collecting and a sample of 104 responde...

  4. Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets

    Irena Vodenska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the daily returns of stock market indices and currencies of 56 countries over the period of 2002–2012. We build a network model consisting of two layers, one being the stock market indices and the other the foreign exchange markets. Synchronous and lagged correlations are used as measures of connectivity and causality among different parts of the global economic system for two different time intervals: non-crisis (2002–2006 and crisis (2007–2012 periods. We study community formations within the network to understand the influences and vulnerabilities of specific countries or groups of countries. We observe different behavior of the cross correlations and communities for crisis vs. non-crisis periods. For example, the overall correlation of stock markets increases during crisis while the overall correlation in the foreign exchange market and the correlation between stock and foreign exchange markets decrease, which leads to different community structures. We observe that the euro, while being central during the relatively calm period, loses its dominant role during crisis. Furthermore we discover that the troubled Eurozone countries, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, form their own cluster during the crisis period.

  5. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  6. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL TERTIARY EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Higher education system occupies a special place in the policy of each nation. Regardless of geographical location, socio-economic or cultural differences, the need to improve the education offered for population by facilitating access to higher education becomes more and more important. Providing a suitable framework for the personal development of each student is expensive and involves high amounts of money. From the analyses carried out we couldn\\'t identify the substantial differences between the way it is structured and organized education system worldwide. However, we were able to identify a number of common elements that create a global University System. The need to invest in human resources through structural reforms in each country is present, and therefore a higher indention to pay greater attention to the development of the higher education system. In our work we decided to analyze education systems in countries like United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (GB, China (CHN, Germany (DE, France (FR, Russian Federation (RU, Japan (JPN average values recorded for EU-27 and last but not least Romania (RO. Although the investment in the University system is hard to quantify, it is unanimously acknowledged that a country can achieve a competitive advantage in international relations through a very well prepared and trained personnel. The countries reviewed in this paper have different policies when it comes to financial support of the University System. If Germany and France have decided to get involved directly in supporting the system by allocating the necessary funds from the State budget, another European country, the United Kingdom, decided to apply a policy diametrically opposite, similar to that existing in the USA and cover in a lesser degree the needs of universities in Government funds. Regardless of the policy adopted the results are intended to be the same: facilitating access to university education, a high quality of

  7. Analysis and Research on Several Global Subdivision Grids

    SONG Shuhua

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the problem that lacking of an unified organization frame about global remote sensing satellite image data, this paper introduces serval global subdivision grids as the unified organization frame for remote sensing image. Based on the characteristics of remote sensing image data, this paper analyzes and summarizes the design principles and difficulties of the organization frame. Based on analysis and comparison with these grids, GeoSOT is more suitable as the unified organization frame for remote sensing image. To provide a reference for the global remote sensing image organization.

  8. Handheld XRF analysis of a 16th century Mexican Feather Headdress

    Karydas, A.G; Padilla-Alvarez, R.; Drozdenko, M.; Korn, M.; Moreno Guzmán, M.O.

    2014-01-01

    The 16th century feather headdress in the Weltmuseum Wien (WMW), an affiliated institution of the Kunsthistorisches Museum (KHM) in Vienna, is the most renowned of the few remaining pre-Columbian “Arte Plumaria” artefacts, which were made by feather artisans (Amantecas) using traditional techniques in the territory of present day Mexico. The recorded history of the headdress begins in 1596, when it is first mentioned in the estate inventory of the art collection of Archduke Ferdinand II of Tyrol at Ambras Castle. Due to its age, the variety of materials used, its history and former restoration treatments, the artefact is today one of the most sensitive and demanding care objects of the museum. Despite the object’s long history, very little documentation on past interventions exists. From 2010-2012, a binational research project between Mexico (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia) and Austria (Weltmuseum Wien) performed a systematic investigation focused on the identification of manufacturing techniques and the various materials, the old restoration measures and its conservation. Handheld x-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometers are extremely useful for the study of art works in museum collections. The possibility of bringing the instrument to inspect the objects on-site facilitates the study of artefacts that cannot be moved either due to their extreme fragility or due to their large size and/or weight. In addition, non-destructive analysis constitutes a preferred alternative to invasive sampling techniques, which are usually not allowed in the study of unique or extremely valuable objects. The aim of the XRF analysis was twofold: to investigate the possible presence of inorganic toxic elements that could be associated to the use of pesticides in past conservation interventions and; to characterize the chemical composition of the authentic gold and the gilded brass ornaments, which were added in the 19th century. The results of the XRF analytical

  9. Conference Report: Environmental Protection in the Global Twentieth Century: International Organizations, Networks and Diffusion of Ideas and Policies

    Meyer, Jan-Henrik

    the environment. Notably, IOs were central forums for negotiating and placing environmental protection on the international political agenda. It is widely assumed that 1972 – the year of the first UN conference on the human environment in Stockholm and of the publication of the Club of Rome report "Limits...... entrepreneurs, selecting, defining, diffusing and translating ideas about the environment in the course of the twentieth century? Secondly, which structural conditions facilitated – and at times inhibited – the diffusion or transfer of policy ideas? It can safely be assumed that the embedding of IOs in national...... and influential individuals – who transmitted and translated environmental ideas from the OECD Environment Committee in the early 1970s to the Brundtland Commission in the 1980s. The latter sought to overcome the apparent contradictions between developmental and environmental goals, advocating the notion...

  10. Crisis, change and creativity in science and technology: chemistry in the aftermath of twentieth-century global wars.

    Johnson, Jeffrey Allan

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the organising ideas behind the symposium "Chemistry in the Aftermath of World Wars," held at the 23rd International Congress of History of Science and Technology, Budapest, 2009, whose theme was "Ideas and Instruments in Social Context." After first recounting the origins of the notion of "crisis" as a decisive turning point in general history as well as in the history of science, the paper presents war and its aftermath as a form of crisis that may affect science and technology, including chemistry, in a variety of contexts and leading to a variety of types of change. The twentieth-century world wars were exemplary forms of crisis, whose aftermaths shaped the contexts for decisive changes in modern chemistry, which continue to offer challenging opportunities for historical research. In discussing these, the paper cites selected current literature and briefly describes how the individual papers of the symposium, including the three papers published in this volume, approached these challenges.

  11. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute's education and public outreach program: Working toward a global 21st century space exploration society

    MacLeish, Marlene Y.; Thomson, William A.; Moreno, Nancy P.

    2011-05-01

    Space Exploration educators worldwide are confronting challenges and embracing opportunities to prepare students for the global 21st century workforce. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), established in 1997 through a NASA competition, is a 12-university consortium dedicated to space life science research and education. NSBRI's Education and Public Outreach Program (EPOP) is advancing the Institute's mission by responding to global educational challenges through activities that: provide teacher professional development; develop curricula that teach students to communicate with their peers across the globe; provide women and minority US populations with greater access to, and awareness of science careers; and promote international science education partnerships. A recent National Research Council (NRC) Space Studies Board Report, America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Program with National Needs, acknowledges that "a capable workforce for the 21st century is a key strategic objective for the US space program… (and that) US problems requiring best efforts to understand and resolve…are global in nature and must be addressed through mutual worldwide action". [1] This sentiment has gained new momentum through a recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) report, which recommends that the life of the International Space Station be extended beyond the planned 2016 termination. [2] The two principles of globalization and ISS utility have elevated NSBRI EPOP efforts to design and disseminate science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) educational materials that prepare students for full participation in a globalized, high technology society; promote and provide teacher professional development; create research opportunities for women and underserved populations; and build international educational partnerships. This paper describes select EPOP projects and makes the case for using innovative, emerging information

  12. Global processing takes time: A meta-analysis on local-global visual processing in ASD.

    Van der Hallen, Ruth; Evers, Kris; Brewaeys, Katrien; Van den Noortgate, Wim; Wagemans, Johan

    2015-05-01

    What does an individual with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) perceive first: the forest or the trees? In spite of 30 years of research and influential theories like the weak central coherence (WCC) theory and the enhanced perceptual functioning (EPF) account, the interplay of local and global visual processing in ASD remains only partly understood. Research findings vary in indicating a local processing bias or a global processing deficit, and often contradict each other. We have applied a formal meta-analytic approach and combined 56 articles that tested about 1,000 ASD participants and used a wide range of stimuli and tasks to investigate local and global visual processing in ASD. Overall, results show no enhanced local visual processing nor a deficit in global visual processing. Detailed analysis reveals a difference in the temporal pattern of the local-global balance, that is, slow global processing in individuals with ASD. Whereas task-dependent interaction effects are obtained, gender, age, and IQ of either participant groups seem to have no direct influence on performance. Based on the overview of the literature, suggestions are made for future research. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  14. Metrological traceability and harmonization of medical tests: a quantum leap forward is needed to keep pace with globalization and stringent IVD-regulations in the 21st century!

    Cobbaert, Christa; Smit, Nico; Gillery, Philippe

    2018-05-07

    In our efforts to advance the profession and practice of clinical laboratory medicine, strong coordination and collaboration are needed more than ever before. At the dawn of the 21st century, medical laboratories are facing many unmet clinical needs, a technological revolution promising a plethora of better biomarkers, financial constraints, a growing scarcity of well-trained laboratory technicians and a sharply increasing number of International Organization for Standardization guidelines and new regulations to which medical laboratories should comply in order to guarantee safety and effectiveness of medical test results. Although this is a global trend, medical laboratories across continents and countries are in distinct phases and experience various situations. A universal underlying requirement for safe and global use of medical test results is the standardization and harmonization of test results. Since two decades and after a number of endeavors on standardization/harmonization of medical tests, it is time to reflect on the effectiveness of the approaches used. To keep laboratory medicine sustainable, viable and affordable, clarification of the promises of metrological traceability of test results for improving sick and health care, realization of formal commitment among all stakeholders of the metrological traceability chain and preparation of a joint and global plan for action are essential prerequisites. Policy makers and regulators should not only overwhelm the diagnostic sector with oversight and regulations but should also create the conditions by establishing a global professional forum for anchoring the metrological traceability concept in the medical test domain. Even so, professional societies should have a strong voice in their (inter-) national governments to negotiate long-lasting public policy commitment and funds for global standardization of medical tests.

  15. Infertility around the globe: new thinking on gender, reproductive technologies and global movements in the 21st century.

    Inhorn, Marcia C; Patrizio, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    Infertility is estimated to affect as many as 186 million people worldwide. Although male infertility contributes to more than half of all cases of global childlessness, infertility remains a woman's social burden. Unfortunately, areas of the world with the highest rates of infertility are often those with poor access to assisted reproductive techniques (ARTs). In such settings, women may be abandoned to their childless destinies. However, emerging data suggest that making ART accessible and affordable is an important gender intervention. To that end, this article presents an overview of what we know about global infertility, ART and changing gender relations, posing five key questions: (i) why is infertility an ongoing global reproductive health problem? (ii) What are the gender effects of infertility, and are they changing over time? (iii) What do we know about the globalization of ART to resource-poor settings? (iv) How are new global initiatives attempting to improve access to IVF? (v) Finally, what can be done to overcome infertility, help the infertile and enhance low-cost IVF (LCIVF) activism? An exhaustive literature review using MEDLINE, Google Scholar and the keyword search function provided through the Yale University Library (i.e. which scans multiple databases simultaneously) identified 103 peer-reviewed journal articles and 37 monographs, chapters and reports from the years 2000-2014 in the areas of: (i) infertility demography, (ii) ART in low-resource settings, (iii) gender and infertility in low-resource settings and (iv) the rise of LCIVF initiatives. International Federation of Fertility Societies Surveillance reports were particularly helpful in identifying important global trends in IVF clinic distribution between 2002 and 2010. Additionally, a series of articles published by scholars who are tracking global cross-border reproductive care (CBRC) trends, as well as others who are involved in the growing LCIVF movement, were invaluable. Recent

  16. Systemic sclerosis: a world wide global analysis.

    Coral-Alvarado, Paola; Pardo, Aryce L; Castaño-Rodriguez, Natalia; Rojas-Villarraga, Adriana; Anaya, Juan-Manuel

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze epidemiological tendencies of systemic sclerosis (SSc) around the world in order to identify possible local variations in the presentation and occurrence of the disease. A systematic review of the literature was performed through electronic databases using the keywords "Systemic Sclerosis" and "Clinical Characteristics." Out of a total of 167 articles, 41 were included in the analysis. Significant differences in the mean age at the time of diagnosis, subsets of SSc, clinical characteristics, and presence of antibodies were found between different regions of the word. Because variations in both additive and nonadditive genetic factors and the environmental variance are specific to the investigated population, ethnicity and geography are important characteristics to be considered in the study of SSc and other autoimmune diseases.

  17. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  18. Global approach of emergency response, reflection analysis

    Velasco Garcia, E.; Garcia Ahumada, F.; Albaladejo Vidal, S.

    1998-01-01

    The emergency response management approach must be dealt with adequately within company strategy, since a badly managed emergency situation can adversely affect a company, not only in terms of asset, but also in terms of the negative impact on its credibility, profitability and image. Thereby, it can be said that there are three main supports to manage the response in an emergency situation. a) Diagnosis b) Prognosis. c) Communications. To reach these capabilities it is necessary a co-ordination of different actions at the following levels. i. Facility Operation implies Local level. ii. Facility Property implies National level iii. Local Authority implies Local level iv. National Authority implies National level Taking into account all the last, these following functions must be covered: a) Management: incorporating communication, diagnosis and prognosis areas. b) Decision: incorporating communication and information means. c) Services: in order to facilitate the decision, as well as the execution of this decision. d) Analysis: in order to facilitate the situations that make easier to decide. e) Documentation: to seek the information for the analysts and decision makers. (Author)

  19. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

    2014-01-01

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  20. Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

    Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

    2017-04-01

    The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

  1. Globalization and international trade in the twenty-first century: opportunities for and threats to the health sector in the south.

    Baris, E; McLeod, K

    2000-01-01

    Globalization and international trade are important forces at the turn of the century. This article explores how freer international trade will affect developing countries that are net importers of health care goods and services. Four commodities are used as special cases for discussion: pharmaceuticals, health care technologies, pesticides, and tobacco and its related products. The authors discuss the role of international specialized agencies, such as the World Trade Organization, World Health Organization, and World Bank, that are concerned with international trade and its health and health care consequences, and argue that closer collaboration is required among these agencies if the negative effects of trade liberalization on developing countries are to be mitigated. The authors pose a number of research questions that could help in developing proactive policies for the South on the trade of goods and services with harmful effects on health as well as those with potential health and economic benefits.

  2. X-ray fluorescence analysis of yellow pigments in altarpieces by Valencian artists of the XV and XVI centuries

    Ferrero, J.L.; Roldan, C.; Ardid, M.; Navarro, E.

    1999-01-01

    XRF analysis has allowed a quick and precise detection and identification of the inorganic elements that compose the yellow pigments in altarpieces of the XV and XVI centuries painted by the Valencian artists Miguel Alcaniz, Vicente Macip, Juan de Juanes, Hernando Yanez de la Almedina and Hernando Llanos. The analyses have been carried out with an XRF portable system that consists of a tube of X-rays and detectors of Si(Li) and cadmium zinc telluride. This system has enabled a non-aggressive and non-destructive analysis of many pieces at the Museo de Bellas Artes of Valencia (Spain). Among the yellow pigments we have identified a pigment composed by lead and tin oxides named lead-tin yellow (Pb 2 SnO 4 ), frequently used in European paintings from the XIV century until the first half of the XVIII century. This fact demonstrates the influence of elements and pictorial techniques from Europe to the region of Valencia

  3. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  4. Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

    Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

  5. Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis

    Ang, B.W.; Su, Bin

    2016-01-01

    We study changes in the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity at the global and country levels. The ACI is defined as the energy-related CO_2 emissions in electricity production divided by the electricity produced. It is a performance indicator since a decrease in its value is a desirable outcome from the environmental and climate change viewpoints. From 1990 to 2013, the ACI computed at the global level decreased only marginally. However, fairly substantial decreases were observed in many countries. This apparent anomaly arises from a geographical shift in global electricity production with countries having a high ACI increasingly taking up a larger electricity production share. It is found that globally and in most major electricity producing countries, reduction in their ACI was due mainly to improvements in the thermal efficiency of electricity generation rather than to fuel switching. Estimates of the above-mentioned effects are made using LMDI decomposition analysis. Our study reveals several challenges in reducing global CO_2 emissions from the electricity production sector although technically the reduction potential for the sector is known to be great. - Highlights: •Variations of aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity of world countries are analysed. •Main drivers of changes in ACI of major electricity producing countries are studied using index decomposition analysis. •Geographical shift in electricity production had a significant impact on global ACI. •Improvements in the thermal efficiency of generation were the main driver of reduction in ACI.

  6. Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

    Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1993-04-01

    A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

  7. Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

    Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

    2014-12-01

    Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

  8. For Nature: Deep Greening World-Systems Analysis for the 21st Century

    Sing S. Chew

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available From its conception the world-systems perspective has been preoccupied with the study of long term global transformations (see for ex., Frank 1968, 1979; Wallerstein 1974; Amin 1974; Wolf, 1982; Chase-Dunn 1989; Chase-Dunn and Hall 1992; Kaplan 1978.2. To this extent, the various structural relationships, trends, and cycles of the world system have been identified to explain the processes of global transformation. The varied attempts to pinpoint and analyze these relations, trends, and cycles have been within the context of connections between humans, classes, status groups, industries, regions, and states in the world economy. From an ecological point of view (ontologically and epistemologically, such a manner of understanding change is quite anthropocentric, as global transformation necessitates a changing relationship with Nature. In an era of increasing global concern and awareness of the finite nature of natural resources and the growing realization of the contemporary losses in plant and animal species and the continued susceptibility of the human species to climatological changes and diseases despite various scientific and technological advances, we need to consider that besides social relations and structures, the basis of human reproduction includes our relationships with the non-human world (ecology. World-systems /world system analyses need to move beyond deciphering the processes of global change only through the social (anthropocentric dimension of the relations underlining these processes. Keeping to just the social relations/structures of the reproduction of the system limits the range of explanations we can provide for global transformation, and also restricts the dimensions whereby the basis for these changes can be explored. This paper is an attempt to introduce the other basic dimension (our relations with Nature into the overall equation of world-systems/world system analyses for our understanding of global change. Ultimately

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  10. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

  11. Simulation analysis of globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies

    Song, S.J.; Hiroshi, K. [Hiroshima Inst. of Tech., Graduate School of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Dept. of In formation and Intelligent Systems Engineering, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    This paper focuses on the optimal analysis of world-wide recycling activities associated with managing the logistics and production activities in global manufacturing whose activities stretch across national boundaries. Globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies consist of the home country and two free trading economic blocs, NAFTA and ASEAN, where significant differences are found in production and disassembly cost, tax rates, local content rules and regulations. Moreover an optimal analysis of globally integrated value-chain was developed by applying simulation optimization technique as a decision-making tool. The simulation model was developed and analyzed by using ProModel packages, and the results help to identify some of the appropriate conditions required to make well-performed logistics and recycling plans in world-wide collaborated manufacturing environment. (orig.)

  12. Growth of Global Publishing Output of Health Economics in the Twenty-First Century: A Bibliographic Insight.

    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Michael; Pejcic, Ana V

    2017-01-01

    Strong growth of interdisciplinary sciences might find exceptional example in academic health economics. We decided to observe the quantitative output in this science since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Electronic search of the published literature was conducted in four different databases: one medical database-MEDLINE/PubMed, two general databases-Scopus/Elsevier and Web of Science (WoS), and one specialized health economic database-NHS Economic Evaluation Database (EED). The applied combination of key words was carefully chosen to cover the most commonly used terms in titles of publications dealing with conceptual areas of health economics. All bibliographic units were taken into account. Within the time horizon from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2016, without language or limitations on bibliographic unit types, we identified an output ranging approximately from 60,345 to 88,246 records with applied search strategy in MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus/Elsevier, and WoS. In NHS EED, we detected 14,761 records of economic evaluations of health interventions during the period in which database was maintained and regularly updated. With slightly more than one-third of the identified records, USA clearly dominates in this field. United Kingdom takes a strong second place with about 12% of identified records. Consistently, USA and UK universities are the most frequent among the top 15 affiliations/organizations of the authors of the identified records. Authors from Harvard University contributed to the largest number of the identified records. There is a clear evidence of both the upward stream of blossoming in health economics publications and its acceleration. Based on this bibliographic data set, it is difficult to distinguish the actual impact growth of this output provided dominantly by academia with modest contribution by pharmaceutical/medicinal device industry and diverse national government-based agencies. Further insight into the citation track record of

  13. Academia in the 21st century. An analysis of trends and perspectives in higher education and research

    de Boer, Harry F.; Huisman, Jeroen; Klemperer, A.M.; van der Meulen, Barend; Neave, Guy; Theisens, H.C.; van der Wende, Marijk

    2002-01-01

    What are world wide the main trends that will or should have an impact on the future of academia? What is expected from academia by different stakeholders in the years to come? These and related questions are addressed in CHEPS¿s report ¿Academia in the 21st century. An analysis of trends and

  14. A very British affair six Britons and the development of time series analysis during the 20th century

    Mills, T

    2012-01-01

    This book develops the major themes of time series analysis from its formal beginnings in the early part of the 20th century to the present day through the research of six distinguished British statisticians, all of whose work is characterised by the British traits of pragmatism and the desire to solve practical problems of importance.

  15. Finite-time analysis of global projective synchronization on coloured ...

    A novel finite-time analysis is given to investigate the global projective synchronization on coloured networks. Some less conservative conditions are derived by utilizing finite-time control techniques and Lyapunov stability theorem. In addition, two illustrative numerical simulations are provided to verify the effectiveness of ...

  16. Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…

  17. Methods for global sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

    Groen, Evelyne A.; Bokkers, Eddy; Heijungs, Reinout; Boer, de Imke J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Input parameters required to quantify environmental impact in life cycle assessment (LCA) can be uncertain due to e.g. temporal variability or unknowns about the true value of emission factors. Uncertainty of environmental impact can be analysed by means of a global sensitivity analysis to

  18. Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

    Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

    2012-02-07

    Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

  19. Error Analysis of Determining Airplane Location by Global Positioning System

    Hajiyev, Chingiz; Burat, Alper

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies the error analysis of determining airplane location by global positioning system (GPS) using statistical testing method. The Newton Rhapson method positions the airplane at the intersection point of four spheres. Absolute errors, relative errors and standard deviation have been calculated The results show that the positioning error of the airplane varies with the coordinates of GPS satellite and the airplane.

  20. A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

    Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J. T.

    2013-12-01

    This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

  1. Identification and comparison of lead white of the 15-th century Gdansk panel paintings by neutron activation analysis

    Olszewska-Swietlik, J.; Panczyk, E.

    2005-01-01

    The lead white has been used in painting science the middle ages both as a priming ground and pigment. Purity of the lead white is directly connected with the lead purification methods that have undergone considerable changes throughout centuries. Marked progress in this respect was noted in the 19-th century. That is why determination of such elements a Ag, Hg, Zn, Cu, Co, Cr, Ba and Sb in the lead white gives reliable information regarding the age of the painting in question. Analyses of samples of the lead white taken from genuine 15-th century panel paintings representing the so-called Pomeranian school were carried out using instrumental neutron activation analysis technique. The total of 32 elements were determined in those samples; also the comparison of the data for Malopolska and Silesian schools was performed. (author)

  2. Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

    Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

    2017-12-01

    During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance

  3. The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

    2017-08-01

    The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  5. A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

    Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

    2008-01-01

    Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

  6. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  7. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  8. Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

    Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

    2016-03-01

    Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

  9. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Kakuee, Omidreza, E-mail: okakuee@aeoi.org.ir [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A. [The Library, Museum and Documentation Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Parliament, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-02-15

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135 Degree-Sign while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K{sub {alpha}} X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  10. Multielemental analysis of tissues from Cangrande della Scala, Prince of Verona, in the 14th century.

    Apostoli, Pietro; De Palma, Giuseppe; Catalani, Simona; Bortolotti, Federica; Tagliaro, Franco

    2009-01-01

    Cangrande della Scala, Prince of Verona (Italy), died suddenly shortly after his triumph in the battle of Treviso (July 18, 1329). Thus, in the frame of a multidisciplinary paleo-pathological study, we carried out a multielemental analysis on the Prince's tissue specimens, including hair, liver, muscle, and bone, in order to characterize a multitissue profile of metallic elements in a nobleman of the 14th century. Biological specimens were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We were able to rule out arsenic poisoning as the primary cause of death. High levels of gold and silver in both hair and liver samples were probably due to prolonged contact of the mummy with precious metals in the funeral garments. High lead concentrations in both liver and bone tissue can be traced back to the ingestion of contaminated food and alcoholic beverages. Most of the essential elements were in the normal range of values for contemporary living people. The low arsenic and chromium levels in the Prince's tissues as compared to modern people would be suggestive of raised concentrations of both the elements in the present era, which are likely due to industrial pollution.

  11. Analysis of community response to transportation noise a quarter century after Schultz (1978)

    Fidell, Sanford

    2003-10-01

    Transportation noise is a vexing and intrinsically controversial problem that has plagued societies since the beginnings of urban civilization. A function relating cumulative noise exposure to the prevalence of noise-induced annoyance [T. J. Schultz, ``Synthesis of social surveys on noise annoyance,'' J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 64, 377-405 (1978)] is the foundation for contemporary analyses of transportation noise effects on communities. The expenditures of billions of dollars in airplane ticket and fuel taxes for the construction of an airport infrastructure and for the mitigation of noise impacts in the United States are governed by policies ostensibly supported by a successor to Schultz's original ``synthesis'' curve. Many have grown so comfortable with the last quarter century's paradigm for transportation noise assessment and regulation, however, that they have lost sight of its underpinnings and limitations. A review of the historical and modern states of the art identifies persistent unresolved problems in the prediction and explanation of community response to transportation noise that are not fully addressed by descriptive dosage-effect analysis.

  12. External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

    Kakuee, Omidreza; Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad; Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A.

    2012-01-01

    The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135° while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K α X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

  13. Cultural imperialism or ”soft imperial power” in the XXIst century global order1 (Imperialismul cultural sau „puterea imperială soft” în ordinea globală a secolului XXI

    Mădălina Virginia ANTONESCU

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Although some of the authors of the relevant literature believe that the phrase “cultural imperialism” is a subtle, “soft” form of domination, which does not involve an open, visible or military political control (in realistic terms, other scholars maintain that this is one of the methods most commonly used by imperial policy in today’s globalist age. The connection of this term with paradigms such as “the clash of civilisations”, “the end of history” or “complex interdependencies” provides a multi-layered perspective on the postmodern world at the beginning of 21st century, a world where soft power is exercised at global, regional, transnational or infra-local level, within an economic, social and cultural framework that has not yet been regulated as such by the classical institutions of the Westphalian order.

  14. Safety-oriented global analysis of reactor dynamics

    Belhadj, M.; Aldemir, T.

    1992-01-01

    It is well known that the asymptotic solutions of the non-linear systems encountered in reactor dynamics can change from stable to periodic or from periodic to chaotic with a very small change in system parameters and/or initial conditions. In that respect, determination of the domains of attraction (DOAs) in the state-space that contains the asymptotic solutions and the identification of the basins of attraction (BOAs) and lead to these DOAs usually requires a global analysis of reactor dynamics (as opposed to a local analysis through perturbation theory). From the standpoint of safety, the DOAs indicate whether the reactor behavior remains within the imposed constraints or not, and the BOAs show which initial conditions lead to safe operation. Due to the lack of a general theory, often the only feasible method for the global analysis of nonlinear systems is the direct integration of governing equations. However, direct integration can be computationally prohibitive, particularly if there is uncertainty on the values of the system parameters to be used in the analysis, and/or asymptotic system behavior is chaotic. In a recent study, a global analysis algorithm was presented to determine the structure of DOAs (and their probability distribution when there is uncertainty on the system parameters) more quickly than by direct integration. This paper shows how the new algorithm can be expanded to determine the BOAs of reactor dynamics equations as well as their DOAs

  15. Global robust exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks

    Xu Shengyuan; Lam, James; Ho, Daniel W.C.; Zou Yun

    2004-01-01

    This Letter investigates the problem of robust global exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The values of the time-invariant uncertain parameters are assumed to be bounded within given compact sets. An improved condition for the existence of a unique equilibrium point and its global exponential stability of RNNs with known parameters is proposed. Based on this, a sufficient condition for the global robust exponential stability for interval RNNs is obtained. Both of the conditions are expressed in terms of LMIs, which can be checked easily by various recently developed convex optimization algorithms. Examples are provided to demonstrate the reduced conservatism of the proposed exponential stability condition

  16. THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

    Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

    2013-08-22

    The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

  17. Causes of global mean surface temperature slowdowns, trends and variations from months to a century, 1891-2015

    Folland, C. K.; Boucher, O.; Colman, A.; Parker, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    The recent slowdown in the warming of global mean surface temperature (GST) has highlighted the influences of natural variability. This talk discusses reconstructions of the variations of GST down to the monthly time scale since 1891 using monthly forcing data. We show that most of the variations in annual, and to some extent sub-annual, GST since 1891 can be reproduced skillfully from known forcing factors external and internal to the climate system. This includes the slowdown in warming over about 1998-2013 where reconstruction skill is particularly high down to the multi-monthly time scale. The relative contributions of the several key forcing factors to GST continually vary, but most of the net warming since 1891 is reconstructed to be attributable to the net forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate analyses are carried out for three periods of GST slowdown:- 1896-1910, 1941-1976, together with 1998-2013 and some of its sub periods. We also study two periods where strong warming occurred, 1911-1940 and 1977-1997. Comparisons are made with the skill of average GST provided by 40 CMIP5 models. In the recent 1998-2013 slowdown, TSI forcing appears to have caused significant cooling, particularly over 2001-2010. This is additional to well documented cooling effects of an increased frequency of La Nina events, a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and some increases in volcanic forcing. Although there are short-term features of the GST curve since 1891 that cannot be fully explained, the most serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur in the Second World War, especially in 1944-1945. Here observed near worldwide SSTs may be biased significantly too warm. Despite this, our generally high reconstruction skill is consistent with a good understanding of the multiple causes of observed GST variations and the general veracity of the GST record since 1891.

  18. Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

    Zhang, Xudong; Zhang, Jie; Fan, Chenqing; Meng, Junmin; Wang, Jing; Wan, Yong

    2018-06-01

    The 21st century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) proposed by China strongly promotes the maritime industry. In this paper, we use wind and ocean wave datasets from 1979 to 2014 to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of the wind speed, significant wave height (SWH), mean wave direction (MWD), and mean wave period (MWP) in the MSR. The analysis results indicate that the Luzon Strait and Gulf of Aden have the most obvious seasonal variations and that the central Indian Ocean is relatively stable. We analyzed the distributions of the maximum wind speed and SWH in the MSR over this 36-year period. The results show that the distribution of the monthly average frequency for SWH exceeds 4 m (huge waves) and that of the corresponding wind speed exceeds 13.9 m s-1 (high wind speed). The occurrence frequencies of huge waves and high winds in regions east of the Gulf of Aden are as high as 56% and 80%, respectively. We also assessed the wave and wind energies in different seasons. Based on our analyses, we propose a risk factor (RF) for determining navigation safety levels, based on the wind speed and SWH. We determine the spatial and temporal RF distributions for different seasons and analyze the corresponding impact on four major sea routes. Finally, we determine the spatial distribution of tropical cyclones from 2000 to 2015 and analyze the corresponding impact on the four sea routes. The analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the MSR provides references for ship navigation as well as ocean engineering.

  19. Examination of the role of nuclear deterrence in the 21st century: a systems analysis approach

    Martz, Joseph C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stevens, Patrice A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Branstetter, Linda [SNL; Hoover, Edward [SNL; O' Brien, Kevin [SNL; Slavin, Adam [SNL; Caswell, David [STANFORD UNIV

    2010-01-01

    Until very recently, an evaluation of US policy regarding deterrence and the role of its nuclear weapons arsenal as a deterrent has been largely absent in the public debate. With President's Obama embrace of a goal of a future world without nuclear weapons, issues of nuclear policy and deterrence have just recently risen to the forefront of policy discussions. The traditional role of US nuclear weapons-to deter the use of nuclear weapons by other states-endures, but is no longer unique nor even predominant. In an increasingly multi-polar world, the US now faces growing risks of nuclear weapons proliferation; the spread of weapons of mass destruction generally to non-state, substate and transnational actors; cyber, space, economic, environmental and resource threats along with the application of numerous other forms of 'soft power' in ways that are inimical to national security and to global stability. What concept of deterrence should the US seek to maintain in the 21st Century? That question remains fluid and central to the current debate. Recently there has been a renewed focusing of attention on the role of US nuclear weapons and a national discussion about what the underlying policy should be. In this environment, both the United States and Russia have committed to drastic reductions in their nuclear arsenals, while still maintaining forces sufficient to ensure unacceptable consequence in response to acts of aggression. Further, the declared nuclear powers have maintained that a limited nuclear arsenal continues to provide insurance against uncertain developments in a changing world. In this environment of US and Russian stockpile reductions, all declared nuclear states have reiterated the central role which nuclear weapons continue to provide for their supreme national security interests. Given this new environment and the challenges of the next several decades, how might the United States structure its policy and forces with regard to nuclear

  20. Lattice Boltzmann methods for global linear instability analysis

    Pérez, José Miguel; Aguilar, Alfonso; Theofilis, Vassilis

    2017-12-01

    Modal global linear instability analysis is performed using, for the first time ever, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze incompressible flows with two and three inhomogeneous spatial directions. Four linearization models have been implemented in order to recover the linearized Navier-Stokes equations in the incompressible limit. Two of those models employ the single relaxation time and have been proposed previously in the literature as linearization of the collision operator of the lattice Boltzmann equation. Two additional models are derived herein for the first time by linearizing the local equilibrium probability distribution function. Instability analysis results are obtained in three benchmark problems, two in closed geometries and one in open flow, namely the square and cubic lid-driven cavity flow and flow in the wake of the circular cylinder. Comparisons with results delivered by classic spectral element methods verify the accuracy of the proposed new methodologies and point potential limitations particular to the LBM approach. The known issue of appearance of numerical instabilities when the SRT model is used in direct numerical simulations employing the LBM is shown to be reflected in a spurious global eigenmode when the SRT model is used in the instability analysis. Although this mode is absent in the multiple relaxation times model, other spurious instabilities can also arise and are documented herein. Areas of potential improvements in order to make the proposed methodology competitive with established approaches for global instability analysis are discussed.

  1. Structural analysis of a ship on global aspect using ANSYS

    Rahman, M. Muzibur; Kamol, Rajia Sultana; Islam, Reyana

    2017-12-01

    Ship is a complex geometry which undergoes a combination of loadings such as hydrostatic, hydrodynamic, wind, wave etc. at sea and thus adequate strength in a ship has always been one of the most challenging tasks for the ship designers. International Maritime Organization (IMO) and classification societies are providing the standards to ensure the adequacy of strength for the ship against all demands throughout its service life. Thus, structural analysis is needed to assess the overall strength of hull, and the means in this regard are based on finite element method which may be applied either local or global aspect of the ship. This paper is an attempt to carry out the structural analysis of a ship in global aspect using ANSYS software to locate the most stress concentration and deformed area, which will have ultimate effect on fatigue fracture.

  2. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. Globalização social: desafio do século XXI GLOBALIZATION SOCIAL: CHALLENGE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

    Antônio Carlos dos Santos

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A crítica de muitos à globalização é conseqüência dos rumos que ela está tomando. Embora a globalização seja um processo dinâmico em andamento, o seu avanço tem ocorrido de forma desequilibrada, gerando instabilidade política, econômica e social em várias regiões do planeta. O presente trabalho procura, de forma teórica, mostrar a falta da globalização social como um dos fatores que tem provocado desequilíbrio na dinâmica do processo de globalização. Pelo lado econômico, observa-se que a globalização ocorre de forma acelerada e já alcança os mais distantes pontos da face da Terra, ao passo que, pelo lado social, observa-se que a globalização está ausente em algumas regiões e, em outro tanto, ela ocorre de forma lenta e sem muito interesse. De nada vale os benefícios da globalização econômica se não existir a globalização social. Esse e o desafio do século XXI.The criticism of many of globalization is a consequence of directions it is taking. While globalization is a dynamic process in progress, its progress has occurred so unbalanced, creating politicalinstability, economic and social development in various regions of the planet. This paper demand, so theoretically, show the lack of social globalisation as one of the factors that have causedimbalance in the dynamics of the globalization process. On the economic side there is that globalization occurs so rapidly and have reached the most distant points of the face of theEarth, while the social side, there is that globalisation is absent in some regions, and in another both, it happens so slowly and without much interest. It is not worth the benefits of economicglobalization if there is the social globalisation. That and the challenge of the twenty-first century.

  4. The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

    Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment; MNV

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to

  5. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  6. HPLC-APCI-MS analysis of triacylglycerols (TAGs) in historical pharmaceutical ointments from the eighteenth century.

    Saliu, Francesco; Modugno, Francesca; Orlandi, Marco; Colombini, Maria Perla

    2011-10-01

    The lipid fractions of residues from historical pharmaceutical ointments were analysed by reversed-phase liquid chromatography coupled with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization and mass spectrometer detection. The residues were contained in a series of historical apothecary jars, dating from the eighteenth century and conserved at the "Aboca Museum" in Sansepolcro (Arezzo, Italy) and at the pharmacy of the "Real Cartuja de Valldemossa" in Palma de Majorca (Spain). The analytical protocol was set up using a comparative study based on the evaluation of triacylglycerol (TAG) compositions in raw natural lipid materials and in laboratory-reproduced ointments. These ointments were prepared following pharmaceutical recipes reported in historical treatises and used as reference materials. The reference materials were also subjected to stress treatments in order to evaluate the modification occurring in the TAG profiles as an effect of ageing. TAGs were successfully detected in the reproduced formulations even in mixtures of up to ten ingredients and after harsh degradative treatments, and also in real historical samples. No particular interferences were detected from other non-lipid ingredients of the formulations. The TAG compositions detected in the historical ointments indicated a predominant use of olive oil and pig adipose material as lipid ingredients. The detection of a high level of tristearine and myristyl-palmitoyl-stearyl glycerol in two of the samples suggested the presence of a fatty material of a different origin (maybe a ruminant). On the basis of the positional isomer ratio, sn-PPO/sn-POP, it was possible to hypothesize an exclusive use of pig fat in one sample. We also evaluated the application of principal component analysis of TAG profiles as an approach for the multivariate statistical comparison of the reference and historical ointments.

  7. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  8. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  9. Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

  10. Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

    2016-02-01

    Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  12. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  13. Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

    Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

    2017-11-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

  14. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments.

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-07-26

    Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific activities - through conventional 'vertical-programming' approach. Such funding can be channelled to one or more of the health system building blocks while targeting disease(s) or explicitly to system-wide activities. We operationalized the World Health Organization health system framework of the six building blocks to conduct a detailed assessment of Global Fund health system investments. Our application of this framework framework provides a comprehensive quantification of system-level interventions. We applied this systematically to a random subset of 52 of the 139 grants funded in Round 8 of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (totalling approximately US$1 billion). According to the analysis, 37% (US$ 362 million) of the Global Fund Round 8 funding was allocated to health systems strengthening. Of that, 38% (US$ 139 million) was for generic system-level interventions, rather than disease-specific system support. Around 82% of health systems strengthening funding (US$ 296 million) was allocated to service delivery, human resources, and medicines & technology, and within each of these to two to three interventions. Governance, financing, and information building blocks received relatively low funding. This study shows that a substantial portion of Global Fund's Round 8 funds was devoted to health systems strengthening. Dramatic skewing among the health system building blocks suggests opportunities for more balanced investments with regard to governance, financing, and

  15. Methodology for global nonlinear analysis of nuclear systems

    Cacuci, D.G.; Cacuci, G.L.

    1987-01-01

    This paper outlines a general method for globally computing the crucial features of nonlinear problems: bifurcations, limit points, saddle points, extrema (maxima and minima); our method also yields the local sensitivities (i.e., first order derivatives) of the system's state variables (e.g., fluxes, power, temperatures, flows) at any point in the system's phase space. We also present an application of this method to the nonlinear BWR model discussed in Refs. 8 and 11. The most significant novel feature of our method is the recasting of a general mathematical problem comprising three aspects: (1) nonlinear constrained optimization, (2) sensitivity analysis, into a fixed point problem of the form F[u(s), λ(s)] = 0 whose global zeros and singular points are related to the special features (i.e., extrema, bifurcations, etc.) of the original problem

  16. Global analysis of a renewable micro hydro power generation plant

    Rahman, Md. Shad; Nabil, Imtiaz Muhammed; Alam, M. Mahbubul

    2017-12-01

    Hydroelectric power or Hydropower means the power generated by the help of flowing water with force. It is one the best source of renewable energy in the world. Water evaporates from the earth's surface, forms clouds, precipitates back to earth, and flows toward the ocean. Hydropower is considered a renewable energy resource because it uses the earth's water cycle to generate electricity. As far as Global is concerned, only a small fraction of electricity is generated by hydro-power. The aim of our analysis is to demonstrate and observe the hydropower of the Globe in micro-scale by our experimental setup which is completely new in concept. This paper consists of all the Global and National Scenario of Hydropower. And how we can more emphasize the generation of Hydroelectric power worldwide.

  17. Reflection terahertz time-domain imaging for analysis of an 18th century neoclassical easel painting

    Dandolo, Corinna Ludovica Koch; Filtenborg, Troels; Fukunaga, Kaori

    2015-01-01

    Terahertz time-domain imaging (THz-TDI) has been applied for imaging a hidden portrait and other subsurfacecomposition layers of an 18th century (18C) easel painting by Nicolai Abildgaard, the most important 18CDanish neoclassical painter of historical and mythological subjects. For the first time...

  18. Music Education in the 21st Century in the United Kingdom: Achievements, Analysis and Aspirations

    Hallam, Susan, Ed.; Creech, Andrea. Ed.

    2010-01-01

    The landscape of music education in the UK is constantly shifting and developing. This book provides a timely and unique overview of this restless sector by considering the achievements of music education, analysing its current performance and setting out aspirations for the future. "Music Education in the 21st Century in the United…

  19. Global tractography with embedded anatomical priors for quantitative connectivity analysis

    Alia eLemkaddem

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The main assumption of fiber-tracking algorithms is that fiber trajectories are represented by paths of highest diffusion, which is usually accomplished by following the principal diffusion directions estimated in every voxel from the measured diffusion MRI data. The state-of-the-art approaches, known as global tractography, reconstruct all the fiber tracts of the whole brain simultaneously by solving a global energy minimization problem. The tractograms obtained with these algorithms outperform any previous technique but, unfortunately, the price to pay is an increased computational cost which is not suitable in many practical settings, both in terms of time and memory requirements. Furthermore, existing global tractography algorithms suffer from an important shortcoming that is crucial in the context of brain connectivity analyses. As no anatomical priors are used during in the reconstruction process, the recovered fiber tracts are not guaranteed to connect cortical regions and, as a matter of fact, most of them stop prematurely in the white matter. This does not only unnecessarily slow down the estimation procedure and potentially biases any subsequent analysis but also, most importantly, prevents the de facto quantification of brain connectivity. In this work, we propose a novel approach for global tractography that is specifically designed for connectivity analysis applications by explicitly enforcing anatomical priors of the tracts in the optimization and considering the effective contribution of each of them, i.e. volume, to the acquired diffusion MRI image. We evaluated our approach on both a realistic diffusion MRI phantom and in-vivo data, and also compared its performance to existing tractography aloprithms.

  20. The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

    Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenia; MNV

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional...

  1. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  2. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  3. Italian news coverage of radiation in the early decades of the twentieth century: A qualitative and quantitative analysis.

    Candela, Andrea; Pasquarè Mariotto, Federico

    2016-02-01

    This work uses a qualitative approach coupled with a quantitative software-based methodology to examine the Italian news media coverage of radiation in the early decades of the twentieth century. We analyze 80 news stories from two of the most influential Italian newspapers from that time: La Stampa (a daily newspaper) and La Domenica del Corriere (an Italian Sunday supplement). While much of previous research on media coverage of scientific topics was generally focused on present-day news, our work revolves around the ground-breaking discovery of X-rays and radioactivity at the dawn of the last century. Our analysis aims to identify journalistic frames in the news coverage of radiation that journalists might have used to emphasize the benefits (or the risks) of the new discoveries. We also hypothesize how this kind of news coverage might have influenced public perception of technological, commercial, and public health applications of the new scientific advancements. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Drivers of wetland conversion: a global meta-analysis.

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H; Vermaat, Jan E; Janse, Jan H

    2013-01-01

    Meta-analysis of case studies has become an important tool for synthesizing case study findings in land change. Meta-analyses of deforestation, urbanization, desertification and change in shifting cultivation systems have been published. This present study adds to this literature, with an analysis of the proximate causes and underlying forces of wetland conversion at a global scale using two complementary approaches of systematic review. Firstly, a meta-analysis of 105 case-study papers describing wetland conversion was performed, showing that different combinations of multiple-factor proximate causes, and underlying forces, drive wetland conversion. Agricultural development has been the main proximate cause of wetland conversion, and economic growth and population density are the most frequently identified underlying forces. Secondly, to add a more quantitative component to the study, a logistic meta-regression analysis was performed to estimate the likelihood of wetland conversion worldwide, using globally-consistent biophysical and socioeconomic location factor maps. Significant factors explaining wetland conversion, in order of importance, are market influence, total wetland area (lower conversion probability), mean annual temperature and cropland or built-up area. The regression analyses results support the outcomes of the meta-analysis of the processes of conversion mentioned in the individual case studies. In other meta-analyses of land change, similar factors (e.g., agricultural development, population growth, market/economic factors) are also identified as important causes of various types of land change (e.g., deforestation, desertification). Meta-analysis helps to identify commonalities across the various local case studies and identify which variables may lead to individual cases to behave differently. The meta-regression provides maps indicating the likelihood of wetland conversion worldwide based on the location factors that have determined historic

  5. An integrated analysis of dry-wet variability in western China for the last 4-5 centuries

    Qian, Weihong; Lin, Xiang

    2009-09-01

    The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70-80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.

  6. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    Kucherenko, Sergei; Feil, Balazs; Shah, Nilay; Mauntz, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  7. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    Kucherenko, Sergei, E-mail: s.kucherenko@ic.ac.u [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Feil, Balazs [Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprem (Hungary); Shah, Nilay [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Mauntz, Wolfgang [Lehrstuhl fuer Anlagensteuerungstechnik, Fachbereich Chemietechnik, Universitaet Dortmund (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  8. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  9. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics.

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  10. An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

    Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...

  11. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

  12. A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

    Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

    2007-02-02

    Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

  13. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  14. ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

    Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

    2013-12-01

    Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

  15. Global patterns of materials use. A socioeconomic and geophysical analysis

    Steinberger, Julia K.; Krausmann, Fridolin; Eisenmenger, Nina [Institute of Social Ecology Vienna, IFF, University of Klagenfurt, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Wien (Austria)

    2010-03-15

    Human use of materials is a major driver of global environmental change. The links between materials use and economic development are central to the challenge of decoupling of materials use and economic growth (dematerialization). This article presents a new global material flow dataset compiled for the year 2000, covering 175 countries, including both extraction and trade flows, and comprising four major material categories: biomass, construction minerals, fossil energy carriers and ores/industrial minerals. First, we quantify the variability and distributional inequality (Gini coefficients) in international material consumption. We then measure the influence of the drivers population, GDP, land area and climate. This analysis yields international income elasticities of material use. Finally, we examine the coupling between material flows, and between income and material productivity, measured in economic production per tonne material consumed. Material productivity is strongly coupled to income, and may thus not be suitable as an international indicator of environmental progress - a finding which we relate to the economic inelasticity of material consumption. The results demonstrate striking differences between the material groups. Biomass is the most equitably distributed resource, economically the most inelastic, and is not correlated to any of the mineral materials. The three mineral material groups are closely coupled to each other and economic activity, indicating that the challenge of dematerializing industrial economies may require fundamental structural transformation. Our analysis provides a first systematic investigation of international differences in material use and their drivers, and thus serves as the basis for more detailed future work. (author)

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of multiscale properties of porous materials

    Um, Kimoon; Zhang, Xuan; Katsoulakis, Markos; Plechac, Petr; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

    2018-02-01

    Ubiquitous uncertainty about pore geometry inevitably undermines the veracity of pore- and multi-scale simulations of transport phenomena in porous media. It raises two fundamental issues: sensitivity of effective material properties to pore-scale parameters and statistical parameterization of Darcy-scale models that accounts for pore-scale uncertainty. Homogenization-based maps of pore-scale parameters onto their Darcy-scale counterparts facilitate both sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification. We treat uncertain geometric characteristics of a hierarchical porous medium as random variables to conduct global SA and to derive probabilistic descriptors of effective diffusion coefficients and effective sorption rate. Our analysis is formulated in terms of solute transport diffusing through a fluid-filled pore space, while sorbing to the solid matrix. Yet it is sufficiently general to be applied to other multiscale porous media phenomena that are amenable to homogenization.

  17. Las relaciones entre Globalización, Medio Ambiente y Salud: Retos para la enfermería en el siglo XXI The globalization, environment and health relationship: Challenges for nursing in the XXI Century

    Liliana Angel Vargas

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo surge de la necesidad de discutir los diversos impactos generados por el proceso de globalización en la medida que interfiere en las relaciones políticas, económicas, sociales, culturales, que se expresan en degradación ambiental y constituyen fuertes amenazas para la salud de individuos y comunidades a nivel local y global. Se propone estimular la reflexión a partir del análisis interdisciplinar del conocimiento producido sobre macro categorías como globalización, medio ambiente y salud y su articulación con el ejercicio profesional del enfermero. Metodológicamente se trata de una sistematización a partir de fuentes bibliográficas primarias y secundarias disponibles inclusive en bases indexadas. Podemos concluir que el ejercicio profesional de enfermería en el siglo XXI exige enfrentar el desafío de (redimensionar el cuidado, que debe ser entendido no como un acto y si como una actitud cuidadora y un compromiso con la defensa de la vida de ésta y las futuras generaciones.This article is a result of the necessity of discussing the many impacts that the globalization process, since it affects way the political, economical and social relations, that are expressed in the environmental degradation and becomes a strong threat to the health of individuals and communities in the local and global levels. Intends to stimulate a reflection from the interdisciplinary analysis of the developed knowledge about categories like globalization, environment and health, and their articulation with the professional nursing practice. In a methodological point of view, it is systematization from primary and secondary bibliographic sources including indexed ones. We conclude that the professional nursing practice in the XXI century demands confronting the challenge of resize the concept of nursing care, must be understood not as an act but as a caring actitude and a commitment to the protection of life of this and future's generations.

  18. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    vulnerable to climate change impacts. Here we focus on tipping elements within the physical / biological system. In the following two sections, we briefly highlight some of our methodological research regarding global mean precipitation and regional climate change. These methodological developments provided the underpinning for our subsequent analysis of individual large-scale climate impacts, as e.g. mass losses of the Greenland ice sheet, the release of greenhouse gases by the thawing of permafrost regions or the threat of coral reefs by high ocean temperatures.

  19. A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

    Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

    2016-11-15

    Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  1. Iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" in Books of Hours of 15th and 16th Century

    Elsa Guyot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In the light of biblical exegesis and medieval literature, this paper proposes an iconographic analysis of the theme of "Bathsheba Bathing" as it appears in Books of Hours. From the fifteenth to the sixteenth century, pictorial representations of this Old Testament scene experienced a boom justified by the underlying eroticism of this episode in which David surprises Bathsheba as she is performing a ritual purification bath. The illuminations that we study reflect the encounter between the Christian tradition and humanistic culture.

  2. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  3. Global Analysis of Solar Neutrino Oscillations Including SNO CC Measurement

    Bahcall, J N; Peña-Garay, C; Bahcall, John N; Peña-Garay, Carlos

    2001-01-01

    For active and sterile neutrinos, we present the globally allowed solutions for two neutrino oscillations. We include the SNO CC measurement and all other relevant solar neutrino and reactor data. Five active neutrino oscillation solutions (LMA, LOW, SMA, VAC, and Just So2) are currently allowed at 3 sigma; three sterile neutrino solutions (Just So2, SMA, and VAC) are allowed at 3 sigma. The goodness of fit is satisfactory for all eight solutions. We also investigate the robustness of the allowed solutions by carrying out global analyses with and without: 1) imposing solar model constraints on the 8B neutrino flux, 2) including the Super-Kamiokande spectral energy distribution and day-night data, 3) using an enhanced CC cross section for deuterium (due to radiative corrections), and 4) a optimistic, hypothetical reduction by a factor of three of the error of the SNO CC rate. For every analysis strategy used in this paper, the most favored solutions all involve large mixing angles: LMA, LOW, or VAC. The favore...

  4. Global Analysis of RNA Secondary Structure in Two Metazoans

    Fan Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The secondary structure of RNA is necessary for its maturation, regulation, processing, and function. However, the global influence of RNA folding in eukaryotes is still unclear. Here, we use a high-throughput, sequencing-based, structure-mapping approach to identify the paired (double-stranded RNA [dsRNA] and unpaired (single-stranded RNA [ssRNA] components of the Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans transcriptomes, which allows us to identify conserved features of RNA secondary structure in metazoans. From this analysis, we find that ssRNAs and dsRNAs are significantly correlated with specific epigenetic modifications. Additionally, we find key structural patterns across protein-coding transcripts that indicate that RNA folding demarcates regions of protein translation and likely affects microRNA-mediated regulation of mRNAs in animals. Finally, we identify and characterize 546 mRNAs whose folding pattern is significantly correlated between these metazoans, suggesting that their structure has some function. Overall, our findings provide a global assessment of RNA folding in animals.

  5. A global analysis of NMR distance constraints from the PDB

    Vranken, Wim

    2007-01-01

    Information obtained from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) experiments is encoded as a set of constraint lists when calculating three-dimensional structures for a protein. With the amount of constraint data from the world wide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB) that is now available, it is possible to do a global, large-scale analysis using only information from the constraints, without taking the coordinate information into account. This article describes such an analysis of distance constraints from NOE data based on a set of 1834 NMR PDB entries containing 1909 protein chains. In order to best represent the quality and extent of the data that is currently deposited at the wwPDB, only the original data as deposited by the authors was used, and no attempt was made to 'clean up' and further interpret this information. Because the constraint lists provide a single set of data, and not an ensemble of structural solutions, they are easier to analyse and provide a reduced form of structural information that is relevant for NMR analysis only. The online resource resulting from this analysis makes it possible to check, for example, how often a particular contact occurs when assigning NOESY spectra, or to find out whether a particular sequence fragment is likely to be difficult to assign. In this respect it formalises information that scientists with experience in spectrum analysis are aware of but cannot necessarily quantify. The analysis described here illustrates the importance of depositing constraints (and all other possible NMR derived information) along with the structure coordinates, as this type of information can greatly assist the NMR community

  6. Global review of open access risk assessment software packages valid for global or continental scale analysis

    Daniell, James; Simpson, Alanna; Gunasekara, Rashmin; Baca, Abigail; Schaefer, Andreas; Ishizawa, Oscar; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Deparday, Vivien; Forni, Marc; Himmelfarb, Anne; Leder, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few decades, a plethora of open access software packages for the calculation of earthquake, volcanic, tsunami, storm surge, wind and flood have been produced globally. As part of the World Bank GFDRR Review released at the Understanding Risk 2014 Conference, over 80 such open access risk assessment software packages were examined. Commercial software was not considered in the evaluation. A preliminary analysis was used to determine whether the 80 models were currently supported and if they were open access. This process was used to select a subset of 31 models that include 8 earthquake models, 4 cyclone models, 11 flood models, and 8 storm surge/tsunami models for more detailed analysis. By using multi-criteria analysis (MCDA) and simple descriptions of the software uses, the review allows users to select a few relevant software packages for their own testing and development. The detailed analysis evaluated the models on the basis of over 100 criteria and provides a synopsis of available open access natural hazard risk modelling tools. In addition, volcano software packages have since been added making the compendium of risk software tools in excess of 100. There has been a huge increase in the quality and availability of open access/source software over the past few years. For example, private entities such as Deltares now have an open source policy regarding some flood models (NGHS). In addition, leaders in developing risk models in the public sector, such as Geoscience Australia (EQRM, TCRM, TsuDAT, AnuGA) or CAPRA (ERN-Flood, Hurricane, CRISIS2007 etc.), are launching and/or helping many other initiatives. As we achieve greater interoperability between modelling tools, we will also achieve a future wherein different open source and open access modelling tools will be increasingly connected and adapted towards unified multi-risk model platforms and highly customised solutions. It was seen that many software tools could be improved by enabling user

  7. Where no guideline has gone before: retrospective analysis of resuscitation in the 24th century.

    Hörburger, David; Haslinger, Julia; Bickel, Hubert; Graf, Nikolaus; Schober, Andreas; Testori, Christoph; Weiser, Christoph; Sterz, Fritz; Haugk, Moritz

    2014-12-01

    Evaluation of the treatment, epidemiology and outcome of cardiac arrest in the television franchise Star Trek. Retrospective cohort study of prospective events. Screening of all episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine and Star Trek: Voyager for cardiac arrest events. Documentation was performed according to the Utstein guidelines for cardiac arrest documentation. All adult, single person cardiac arrests were included. Patients were excluded if cardiac arrest occurred during mass casualties, if the victims were annihilated by energy weapons or were murdered and nobody besides the assassin could provide first aid. Epidemiological data, treatment and outcome of cardiac arrest victims in the 24th century were studied. Ninety-six cardiac arrests were included. Twenty-three individuals were female (24%). Cardiac arrest was witnessed in 91 cases (95%), trauma was the leading cause (n = 38; 40%). Resuscitation was initiated in 17 cases (18%) and 12 patients (13%) had return of spontaneous circulation. Favorable neurological outcome and long-term survival was documented in nine patients (9%). Technically diagnosed cardiac arrest was associated with higher rates of favorable neurological outcome and long-term survival. Neurological outcome and survival did not depend on cardiac arrest location. Cardiac arrest remains a critical event in the 24th century. We observed a change of etiology from cardiac toward traumatic origin. Quick access to medical help and new prognostic tools were established to treat cardiac arrest.

  8. Scientific Productivity on Research in Ethical Issues over the Past Half Century: A JoinPoint Regression Analysis.

    Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Huy, Nguyen Tien; Trang, Nguyen Thi Huyen; Luan, Nguyen Thien; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Nghi, Tran Diem; Hieu, Mai Van; Hirayama, Kenji; Karbwang, Juntra

    2014-09-01

    Ethics is one of the main pillars in the development of science. We performed a JoinPoint regression analysis to analyze the trends of ethical issue research over the past half century. The question is whether ethical issues are neglected despite their importance in modern research. PubMed electronic library was used to retrieve publications of all fields and ethical issues. JoinPoint regression analysis was used to identify the significant time trends of publications of all fields and ethical issues, as well as the proportion of publications on ethical issues to all fields over the past half century. Annual percent changes (APC) were computed with their 95% confidence intervals, and a p-value years (from 1996 to 2013). When comparing the absolute number of ethics related articles (APEI) to all publications of all fields (APAF) on PubMed, the results showed that the proportion of APEI to APAF statistically increased during the periods of 1965-1974, 1974-1986, and 1986-1993, with APCs of 11.0, 2.1, and 8.8, respectively. However, the trend has gradually dropped since 1993 and shown a marked decrease from 2002 to 2013 with an annual percent change of -7.4%. Scientific productivity in ethical issues research on over the past half century rapidly increased during the first 30-year period but has recently been in decline. Since ethics is an important aspect of scientific research, we suggest that greater attention is needed in order to emphasize the role of ethics in modern research.

  9. Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations

    Konakli, Katerina; Sudret, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    In the context of global sensitivity analysis, the Sobol' indices constitute a powerful tool for assessing the relative significance of the uncertain input parameters of a model. We herein introduce a novel approach for evaluating these indices at low computational cost, by post-processing the coefficients of polynomial meta-models belonging to the class of low-rank tensor approximations. Meta-models of this class can be particularly efficient in representing responses of high-dimensional models, because the number of unknowns in their general functional form grows only linearly with the input dimension. The proposed approach is validated in example applications, where the Sobol' indices derived from the meta-model coefficients are compared to reference indices, the latter obtained by exact analytical solutions or Monte-Carlo simulation with extremely large samples. Moreover, low-rank tensor approximations are confronted to the popular polynomial chaos expansion meta-models in case studies that involve analytical rank-one functions and finite-element models pertinent to structural mechanics and heat conduction. In the examined applications, indices based on the novel approach tend to converge faster to the reference solution with increasing size of the experimental design used to build the meta-model. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed for global sensitivity analysis of high-dimensional models. • Low-rank tensor approximations (LRA) are used as a meta-modeling technique. • Analytical formulas for the Sobol' indices in terms of LRA coefficients are derived. • The accuracy and efficiency of the approach is illustrated in application examples. • LRA-based indices are compared to indices based on polynomial chaos expansions.

  10. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  11. Neutron activation analysis of sixteenth- and seventeenth-century European blue glass trade beads from the eastern Great Lakes area of North America

    Hancock, R.G.V.; Chafe, A.; Kenyon, I.

    1994-01-01

    Sixteenth- and seventeenth-century European blue glass trade beads from aboriginal sites in the eastern Great Lakes area of North America have been analysed non-destructively using low neutron dose instrumental neutron activation analysis, so that the beads could be returned to their keepers. Dark blue (cobalt-coloured) beads are readily separable from turquoise (copper-coloured) beads. Differences in the chemistries of the turquoise blue beads appear to be useful in separating glass beads from the two centuries. Low calcium, sixteenth-century turquoise beads tend to disintegrate by a leaching of the alkali metals. (Author)

  12. Satellite Imagery Analysis for Automated Global Food Security Forecasting

    Moody, D.; Brumby, S. P.; Chartrand, R.; Keisler, R.; Mathis, M.; Beneke, C. M.; Nicholaeff, D.; Skillman, S.; Warren, M. S.; Poehnelt, J.

    2017-12-01

    The recent computing performance revolution has driven improvements in sensor, communication, and storage technology. Multi-decadal remote sensing datasets at the petabyte scale are now available in commercial clouds, with new satellite constellations generating petabytes/year of daily high-resolution global coverage imagery. Cloud computing and storage, combined with recent advances in machine learning, are enabling understanding of the world at a scale and at a level of detail never before feasible. We present results from an ongoing effort to develop satellite imagery analysis tools that aggregate temporal, spatial, and spectral information and that can scale with the high-rate and dimensionality of imagery being collected. We focus on the problem of monitoring food crop productivity across the Middle East and North Africa, and show how an analysis-ready, multi-sensor data platform enables quick prototyping of satellite imagery analysis algorithms, from land use/land cover classification and natural resource mapping, to yearly and monthly vegetative health change trends at the structural field level.

  13. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  14. Accuracy analysis of the 2014–2015 Global Shuttle Radar ...

    1KIIT University, Bhubaneswar 751 024, India. 2Continental ... Global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data products have been widely used in Earth. Sciences ..... tional GNSS Service in a changing landscape of Global. Navigation ...

  15. The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    J.D. Stanaway (Jeffrey D.); D.S. Shepard (Donald); E.A. Undurraga (Eduardo); Halasa, Y.A. (Yara A); L.E. Coffeng (Luc); Brady, O.J. (Oliver J); Hay, S.I. (Simon I); Bedi, N. (Neeraj); I.M. Bensenor (Isabela M.); C.A. Castañeda-Orjuela (Carlos A); T.-W. Chuang (Ting-Wu); K.B. Gibney (Katherine B); Z.A. Memish (Ziad); A. Rafay (Anwar); K.N. Ukwaja (Kingsley N); N. Yonemoto (Naohiro); C.J.L. Murray (Christopher)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractBackground Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Methods We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and

  16. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  17. GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) version 1.1 (NODC Accession 0001644)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a cooperative effort to coordinate global synthesis projects funded through NOAA/DOE and NSF as part of the Joint...

  18. Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing

    Meng, Bo; Cheng, Lihong

    2017-01-01

    The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. PMID:28081201

  19. Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing.

    Hao Xiao

    Full Text Available The rise of global value chains (GVCs characterized by the so-called "outsourcing", "fragmentation production", and "trade in tasks" has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014 and Wang et al. (2013 in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics.

  20. Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing.

    Xiao, Hao; Sun, Tianyang; Meng, Bo; Cheng, Lihong

    2017-01-01

    The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called "outsourcing", "fragmentation production", and "trade in tasks" has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics.

  1. Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD) derived from Remote Sensing in Support of Food Security in the Twenty-first Century: Current Achievements and Future Possibilities

    Teluguntla, Pardhasaradhi G.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Xiong, Jun N.; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Giri, Chandra; Milesi, Cristina; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Congalton, Russ; Tilton, James; Sankey, Temuulen Tsagaan; Massey, Richard; Phalke, Aparna; Yadav, Kamini

    2015-01-01

    to biofuels (Bindraban et al., 2009), limited water resources for irrigation expansion (Turral et al., 2009), limits on agricultural intensifications, loss of croplands to urbanization (Khan and Hanjra, 2008), increasing meat consumption (and associated demands on land and water) (Vinnari and Tapio, 2009), environmental infeasibility for cropland expansion (Gordon et al., 2009), and changing climate have all put pressure on our continued ability to sustain global food security in the twenty-first century. So, how does the World continue to meet its food and nutrition needs?. Solutions may come from bio-technology and precision farming, however developments in these fields are not currently moving at rates that will ensure global food security over next few decades. Further, there is a need for careful consideration of possible harmful effects of bio-technology. We should not be looking back 30– 50 years from now, like we have been looking back now at many mistakes made during the green revolution. During the green revolution the focus was only on getting more yield per unit area. Little thought was put about serious damage done to our natural environments, water resources, and human health as a result of detrimental factors such as uncontrolled use of herbicides-pesticides-nutrients, drastic groundwater mining, and salinization of fertile soils due to over irrigation. Currently, there is talk of a “second green revolution” or even an “ever green revolution”, but clear ideas on what these terms actually mean are still debated and are evolving. One of the biggest issues that are not given adequate focus is the use of large quantities of water for food production. Indeed, an overwhelming proportion (60-90%) of all human water use in India goes for producing their food (Falkenmark, M., & Rockström, 2006). But such intensive water use for food production is no longer tenable due to increasing pressure for water use alternatives such as increasing urbanization

  2. Global/local methods research using a common structural analysis framework

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Ransom, Jonathan B.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.; Thompson, Danniella M.

    1991-01-01

    Methodologies for global/local stress analysis are described including both two- and three-dimensional analysis methods. These methods are being developed within a common structural analysis framework. Representative structural analysis problems are presented to demonstrate the global/local methodologies being developed.

  3. PIXE and IL analysis of an archeologically problematic XIII century ceramic production

    Zucchiatti, Alessandro, E-mail: alessandro.zucchiatti@uam.es [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Jiménez-Rey, David [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión CIEMAT, E06.P2.09, Madrid (Spain); Climent-Font, Aurelio [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Departamento di Física Aplicada, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid (Spain); Martina, Silvia [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Universitá degli Studi di Torino, Turin (Italy); Faieta, Rosangela [Centro de Micro-Análisis de Materiales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Faraday 3, Madrid (Spain); Universitá della Tuscia, Viterbo (Italy); Maggi, Marco [Musei Vaticani, Ufficio del Conservatore, Rome (Italy); Giuntini, Lorenzo; Calusi, Silvia [INFN – Laboratorio di tecniche Nucleari per i Beni Culturali, Florence (Italy)

    2015-11-15

    At the beginning of the XIII century the archaeologists have found evidence of a singular, transitional, pottery technique limited to a small area around western Liguria (Northwest of Italy). Known as Ligurian Protomajolica (PML), it shows in the same ceramic body and on the same surface white slip and enamel together, addressing questions about the technical reasons of this unusual combination, its origin and evolution. To integrate previous morphological and mineralogical studies, we have analysed by particle induced X-ray emission (also with mapping) and ionoluminescence (IL) the ceramic body, slip and glaze composition of 56 samples, of which 25 PML’s. We have identified some PML’s compositional features which are distinct from those of other coeval or later productions from the same area. A few PML imitations are described. A plausible explanation of the origin of the PML’s, based both on the archaeometric results and the archaeological and historical knowledge, is presented.

  4. A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content

    Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

    2015-12-01

    The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for

  5. Cross-covariance based global dynamic sensitivity analysis

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Zhao; Wu, Mengmeng

    2018-02-01

    For identifying the cross-covariance source of dynamic output at each time instant for structural system involving both input random variables and stochastic processes, a global dynamic sensitivity (GDS) technique is proposed. The GDS considers the effect of time history inputs on the dynamic output. In the GDS, the cross-covariance decomposition is firstly developed to measure the contribution of the inputs to the output at different time instant, and an integration of the cross-covariance change over the specific time interval is employed to measure the whole contribution of the input to the cross-covariance of output. Then, the GDS main effect indices and the GDS total effect indices can be easily defined after the integration, and they are effective in identifying the important inputs and the non-influential inputs on the cross-covariance of output at each time instant, respectively. The established GDS analysis model has the same form with the classical ANOVA when it degenerates to the static case. After degeneration, the first order partial effect can reflect the individual effects of inputs to the output variance, and the second order partial effect can reflect the interaction effects to the output variance, which illustrates the consistency of the proposed GDS indices and the classical variance-based sensitivity indices. The MCS procedure and the Kriging surrogate method are developed to solve the proposed GDS indices. Several examples are introduced to illustrate the significance of the proposed GDS analysis technique and the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

  6. Global analysis of small molecule binding to related protein targets.

    Felix A Kruger

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on the integration of pharmacological data and homology information for a large scale analysis of small molecule binding to related targets. Differences in small molecule binding have been assessed for curated pairs of human to rat orthologs and also for recently diverged human paralogs. Our analysis shows that in general, small molecule binding is conserved for pairs of human to rat orthologs. Using statistical tests, we identified a small number of cases where small molecule binding is different between human and rat, some of which had previously been reported in the literature. Knowledge of species specific pharmacology can be advantageous for drug discovery, where rats are frequently used as a model system. For human paralogs, we demonstrate a global correlation between sequence identity and the binding of small molecules with equivalent affinity. Our findings provide an initial general model relating small molecule binding and sequence divergence, containing the foundations for a general model to anticipate and predict within-target-family selectivity.

  7. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  8. Global processing takes time: A meta-analysis on local-global visual processing in ASD

    Van der Hallen, Ruth; Evers, Kris; Brewaeys, K.; Van Den Noortgate, Wim; Wagemans, Johan

    2015-01-01

    What does an individual with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) perceive first: the forest or the trees? In spite of 30 years of research and influential theories like the weak central coherence (WCC) theory and the enhanced perceptual functioning (EPF) account, the interplay of local and global visual processing in ASD remains only partly understood. Research findings vary in indicating a local processing bias or a global processing deficit, and often contradict each other. We have applied a for...

  9. Working-Class Ideas and Experiences of Sexuality in Twentieth-Century Britain: Regionalism as a Category of Analysis.

    Smith, Helen

    2018-03-01

    This article will explore region as a category of analysis for understanding gender, sexual cultures, and the expression of same-sex desire. In unpicking the notion of regional difference in both its tangible and intangible forms, it outlines the corresponding impact on how sexual cultures developed and were experienced in twentieth-century Britain. By recognizing that the area in which an individual lived could have as much impact on their sense of self and their sexual experiences as issues of race, gender, and class, a new and fruitful avenue of interpretation is opened up for the history of sexuality and twentieth-century British history more broadly. Such a methodology has the potential to add a new dimension to all histories of non-state-sanctioned sexual experience such as illegitimacy, premarital sex, extramarital affairs, and prostitution. In using regional case studies and interrogating ideas of sexual taboo, this article offers a unique interpretation of sexual experience that destabilizes current London-centric narratives and offers a more democratic and nuanced history of sex.

  10. UNEARTHING GLOBAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION LEVELS AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION AS A MEDIATING FACTOR IN GLOBAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

    Roshny Unnikrishnan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study is a result of the author’s inquisition to unearth the current values of Global Financial Inclusion and its relationship with economic growth measured by Gross Domestic product(GDP and human development measured by United Nations Human Development Index (HDI. The Financial Inclusion (FI levels are measured using Index for Financial Inclusion .The relationship between GDP and HDI with FI as mediator, using multiple regression, is validated on a global level based on data of 162 countries for the year 2011. An overall global mediation analysis is undertaken to establish Financial Inclusion as a mediating factor and partial mediation on human development is validated. The study is valid and unique in the global context of income inequality prevailing in developed, developing and underdeveloped countries as it validates the argument that an impressive GDP performance does not ensure equity in economic growth.

  11. Voting contagion: Modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections

    de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. Sources of influence can be divided as external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An important question is how to disentangle the social contagion by peers from external influences. While a variety of experimental and observational studies provided insight into this problem, identifying the extent of contagion based on large-scale observational data with an unknown network structure remains largely unexplored. By bridging the gap between the large-scale complex systems perspective of collective human dynamics and the detailed approach of social sciences, we present a parsimonious model of social influence, and apply it to a central topic in political science—elections and voting behavior. We provide an analytical expression of the county vote-share distribution, which is in excellent agreement with almost a century of observed U.S. presidential election data. Analyzing the social influence topography over this period reveals an abrupt phase transition from low to high levels of social contagion, and robust differences among regions. These results suggest that social contagion effects are becoming more instrumental in shaping large-scale collective political behavior, with implications on democratic electoral processes and policies. PMID:28542409

  12. Feminism and psychology: analysis of a half-century of research on women and gender.

    Eagly, Alice H; Eaton, Asia; Rose, Suzanna M; Riger, Stephanie; McHugh, Maureen C

    2012-04-01

    Starting in the 1960s, feminists argued that the discipline of psychology had neglected the study of women and gender and misrepresented women in its research and theories. Feminists also posed many questions worthy of being addressed by psychological science. This call for research preceded the emergence of a new and influential body of research on gender and women that grew especially rapidly during the period of greatest feminist activism. The descriptions of this research presented in this article derive from searches of the journal articles cataloged by PsycINFO for 1960-2009. These explorations revealed (a) a concentration of studies in basic research areas investigating social behavior and individual dispositions and in many applied areas, (b) differing trajectories of research on prototypical topics, and (c) diverse theoretical orientations that authors have not typically labeled as feminist. The considerable dissemination of this research is evident in its dispersion beyond gender-specialty journals into a wide range of other journals, including psychology's core review and theory journals, as well as in its coverage in introductory psychology textbooks. In this formidable body of research, psychological science has reflected the profound changes in the status of women during the last half-century and addressed numerous questions that these changes have posed. Feminism served to catalyze this research area, which grew beyond the bounds of feminist psychology to incorporate a very large array of theories, methods, and topics.

  13. Spectroscopic analysis of XIV century wall paintings from Patriarchate of Peć Monastery, Serbia

    Marić-Stojanović, M.; Bajuk-Bogdanović, D.; Uskoković-Marković, S.; Holclajtner-Antunović, I.

    2018-02-01

    The Church of the Holy Mother of God Hodegetria in Peć is decorated with wall paintings that date from the beginning of the 14th century. In terms of style they correspond to Byzantine wall paintings from the epoch of Paleologos. The painting technique and pigment pallete has been examined on micro fragments in thin cross-sections by means of optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and micro- Raman spectroscopy. Use of the fresco technique and two supporting plaster layers was noted on the majority of samples, while in large blue painted areas, a combination of fresco and secco techniques was used. The SEM-EDS results showed the presence of Ca as the main component of plaster besides the traces of Si and Mg. In some samples egg white as a binder was identified. The paint film is often multilayered. Twelve pigments were identified, mainly natural earth pigments such as red ochre, yellow ochre and green earth. A mixture of pigments was used for attaining desirable optical and aesthetical impressions. As decay product only weddelite was detected in many preparatory and painted samples.

  14. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    Infrastructure and the broader GEOSS architecture. Of specific interest to this session is the work on geospatial workflows and geo-processing and data discovery and access. CCIP demonstrates standards-based interoperability between geospatial applications in the service of Climate Change analysis. CCIP is planned to be a yearly exercise. It consists of a network of online data services (WCS, WFS, SOS), analysis services (WPS, WCPS, WMS), and clients that exercise those services. In 2009, CCIP focuses on Australia, and the initial application of existing OGC services to climate studies. The results of the 2009 CCIP will serve as requirements for more complex geo-processing services to be developed for CCIP 2010. The benefits of CCIP include accelerating the implementation of the GCOS, and building confidence that implementations using multi-vendor interoperable technologies can help resolve vexing climate change questions. AIP-2: Architecture Implementation Pilot, Phase 2 CCIP: Climate Challenge Integration Plugfest GEO: Group on Earth Observations GEOSS: Global Earth Observing System of Systems GCOS: Global Climate Observing System OGC: Open Geospatial Consortium SOS: Sensor Observation Service WCS: Web Coverage Service WCPS: Web Coverage Processing Service WFS: Web Feature Service WMS: Web Mapping Service

  15. Analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning management in the 21st Century under education THAILAND 4.0 framework

    Jedaman, Pornchai; Buaraphan, Khajornsak; Pimdee, Paitoon; Yuenyong, Chokchai; Sukkamart, Aukkapong; Suksup, Charoen

    2018-01-01

    This article aims to study and analyze the 21st Century of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework, and factor analysis of sustainable leadership for science learning. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative approaches in collecting data including a questionnaire survey, a documentary review and a Participatory Action Learning (PAL). The sample were sampling purposively. There were 225 administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Area Offices throughout Thailand. Out of 225, 183 (83.33%) and 42 (16.67%) respondents were the administrators of Primary and Secondary Education Offices, respectively. The quantitative data was analyzed by descriptive statistical analysis including mean, standard deviation. Also, the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was conducted to analyze the factors associated with sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework. The qualitative data was analyzed by using three main stages, i.e., data reduction, data organization, data interpretation to conclusion. The study revealed that sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 Framework needs to focus on development, awareness of duty and responsibility, equality, moral and knowledge. All aspects should be integrated together in order to achieve the organizational goals, good governance culture and identity. Importantly, there were six "key" elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework: i) Professional Leadership Role, ii) Leadership Under Change, iii) Leadership Skills 4.0 in the 21st Century, iv) Development in the Pace With Change, v) Creativity and Creative Tension, and vi) Hold True Assessments. The CFA showed that the six key elements of sustainable leadership under the education THAILAND 4.0 framework by weight of each elements were significant at the .01 significance level.

  16. Studies of Ocean Predictability at Decade to Century Time Scales Using a Global Ocean General Circulation Model in a Parallel Computing Environment; FINAL

    Barnett, T.P.

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of this report are to determine the structure of oceanic natural variability at time scales of decades to centuries, characterize the physical mechanisms responsible for the variability; determine the relative importance of heat, fresh water, and moment fluxes on the variability; determine the predictability of the variability on these times scales

  17. Global Sensitivity Analysis for multivariate output using Polynomial Chaos Expansion

    Garcia-Cabrejo, Oscar; Valocchi, Albert

    2014-01-01

    Many mathematical and computational models used in engineering produce multivariate output that shows some degree of correlation. However, conventional approaches to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) assume that the output variable is scalar. These approaches are applied on each output variable leading to a large number of sensitivity indices that shows a high degree of redundancy making the interpretation of the results difficult. Two approaches have been proposed for GSA in the case of multivariate output: output decomposition approach [9] and covariance decomposition approach [14] but they are computationally intensive for most practical problems. In this paper, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is used for an efficient GSA with multivariate output. The results indicate that PCE allows efficient estimation of the covariance matrix and GSA on the coefficients in the approach defined by Campbell et al. [9], and the development of analytical expressions for the multivariate sensitivity indices defined by Gamboa et al. [14]. - Highlights: • PCE increases computational efficiency in 2 approaches of GSA of multivariate output. • Efficient estimation of covariance matrix of output from coefficients of PCE. • Efficient GSA on coefficients of orthogonal decomposition of the output using PCE. • Analytical expressions of multivariate sensitivity indices from coefficients of PCE

  18. Global analysis of ICRF wave coupling on Tore Supra

    Goniche, M.; Bremond, S.; Colas, L.

    2003-01-01

    The Tore Supra tokamak is equipped with a multi-megawatt ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) system for heating and current drive. The coupling of the fast wave to the plasma, characterized by the distributed coupling resistance along the radiating straps, is a crucial issue in order to launch large RF powers. Many factors can have an effect on ICRF wave coupling. Quantitative prediction from theoretical modelling requires the knowledge of the local inhomogeneous plasma density profile in front of the antenna for running sophisticated antenna codes. In this work, we have rather followed a 'global' approach, based on Tore Supra experimental results, for the parametric study of the coupling resistance. From a large data base covering seven experimental campaigns (∼2250 shots), a scaling law of the coupling resistance including the main parameters of the plasma and of the antenna configuration is established. This approach is found to be reliable for the analysis of coupling in the different scenarios: He/D 2 gas filling, gas/pellets for plasma fuelling, plasma leaning on inner wall/low field side limiter, limiter/ergodic divertor configuration, minority heating/direct electron heating. From one scenario to another, a significant variation of the coefficients of the scaling law is found. The study of these variations allows to get some insight on the main physical mechanisms which influence the ICRF wave coupling in a tokamak operation, such as the wall conditioning and recycling conditions, RF sheaths or frequency. (author)

  19. Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

    Padowski, Julie C; Gorelick, Steven M

    2014-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

  20. Global energy context: future scenarios

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  1. Global, exact cosmic microwave background data analysis using Gibbs sampling

    Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Larson, David L.; Lakshminarayanan, Arun

    2004-01-01

    We describe an efficient and exact method that enables global Bayesian analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. The method reveals the joint posterior density (or likelihood for flat priors) of the power spectrum C l and the CMB signal. Foregrounds and instrumental parameters can be simultaneously inferred from the data. The method allows the specification of a wide range of foreground priors. We explicitly show how to propagate the non-Gaussian dependency structure of the C l posterior through to the posterior density of the parameters. If desired, the analysis can be coupled to theoretical (cosmological) priors and can yield the posterior density of cosmological parameter estimates directly from the time-ordered data. The method does not hinge on special assumptions about the survey geometry or noise properties, etc., It is based on a Monte Carlo approach and hence parallelizes trivially. No trace or determinant evaluations are necessary. The feasibility of this approach rests on the ability to solve the systems of linear equations which arise. These are of the same size and computational complexity as the map-making equations. We describe a preconditioned conjugate gradient technique that solves this problem and demonstrate in a numerical example that the computational time required for each Monte Carlo sample scales as n p 3/2 with the number of pixels n p . We use our method to analyze the data from the Differential Microwave Radiometer on the Cosmic Background Explorer and explore the non-Gaussian joint posterior density of the C l from the Differential Microwave Radiometer on the Cosmic Background Explorer in several projections

  2. Global Analysis of Heat Shock Response in Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough.

    Chhabra, S.R.; He, Q.; Huang, K.H.; Gaucher, S.P.; Alm, E.J.; He,Z.; Hadi, M.Z.; Hazen, T.C.; Wall, J.D.; Zhou, J.; Arkin, A.P.; Singh, A.K.

    2005-09-16

    Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough belongs to a class ofsulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and is found ubiquitously in nature.Given the importance of SRB-mediated reduction for bioremediation ofmetal ion contaminants, ongoing research on D. vulgaris has been in thedirection of elucidating regulatory mechanisms for this organism under avariety of stress conditions. This work presents a global view of thisorganism's response to elevated growth temperature using whole-celltranscriptomics and proteomics tools. Transcriptional response (1.7-foldchange or greater; Z>1.5) ranged from 1,135 genes at 15 min to 1,463genes at 120 min for a temperature up-shift of 13oC from a growthtemperature of 37oC for this organism and suggested both direct andindirect modes of heat sensing. Clusters of orthologous group categoriesthat were significantly affected included posttranslationalmodifications; protein turnover and chaperones (up-regulated); energyproduction and conversion (down-regulated), nucleotide transport,metabolism (down-regulated), and translation; ribosomal structure; andbiogenesis (down-regulated). Analysis of the genome sequence revealed thepresence of features of both negative and positive regulation whichincluded the CIRCE element and promoter sequences corresponding to thealternate sigma factors ?32 and ?54. While mechanisms of heat shockcontrol for some genes appeared to coincide with those established forEscherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis, the presence of unique controlschemes for several other genes was also evident. Analysis of proteinexpression levels using differential in-gel electrophoresis suggestedgood agreement with transcriptional profiles of several heat shockproteins, including DnaK (DVU0811), HtpG (DVU2643), HtrA (DVU1468), andAhpC (DVU2247). The proteomics study also suggested the possibility ofposttranslational modifications in the chaperones DnaK, AhpC, GroES(DVU1977), and GroEL (DVU1976) and also several periplasmic ABCtransporters.

  3. Learner Analysis Framework for Globalized E-Learning

    Saxena, Mamta

    2010-01-01

    The digital shift to technology-mediated modes of instructional delivery and the increased global connectivity has led to the rise in globalized e-learning programs. Educational institutions face multiple challenges as they seek to design effective, engaging and culturally competent instruction for an increasingly diverse learner population. The…

  4. An Analysis of Globalization and Higher Education in Malaysia

    Arokiasamy, Anantha Raj A.

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to examine the impact of globalization on private higher education in Malaysia. The impact of globalization and the development of knowledge-based economy have caused much dramatic change to the character and functions of higher education in Malaysia. The major trend is the reforming and restructuring of private higher education in…

  5. Global carbon monoxide cycle: Modeling and data analysis

    Arellano, Avelino F., Jr.

    The overarching goal of this dissertation is to develop robust, spatially and temporally resolved CO sources, using global chemical transport modeling, CO measurements from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL) and Measurement of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), under the framework of Bayesian synthesis inversion. To rigorously quantify the CO sources, I conducted five sets of inverse analyses, with each set investigating specific methodological and scientific issues. The first two inverse analyses separately explored two different CO observations to estimate CO sources by region and sector. Under a range of scenarios relating to inverse methodology and data quality issues, top-down estimates using CMDL CO surface and MOPITT CO remote-sensed measurements show consistent results particularly on a significantly large fossil fuel/biofuel (FFBF) emission in East Asia than present bottom-up estimates. The robustness of this estimate is strongly supported by forward and inverse modeling studies in the region particularly from TRansport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign. The use of high-resolution measurement for the first time in CO inversion also draws attention to a methodology issue that the range of estimates from the scenarios is larger than posterior uncertainties, suggesting that estimate uncertainties may be underestimated. My analyses highlight the utility of top-down approach to provide additional constraints on present global estimates by also pointing to other discrepancies including apparent underestimation of FFBF from Africa/Latin America and biomass burning (BIOM) sources in Africa, southeast Asia and north-Latin America, indicating inconsistencies on our current understanding of fuel use and land-use patterns in these regions. Inverse analysis using MOPITT is extended to determine the extent of MOPITT information and estimate monthly regional CO sources. A major finding, which is consistent with other

  6. Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the current century case series.

    Sadr-Eshkevari, Pooyan; Rashad, Ashkan; Vahdati, Seyed Aliakbar; Garajei, Ata; Bohluli, Behnam; Maurer, Peter

    2013-09-01

    Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction remains insufficiently predictable, with no systematic reviews to assess its scope and limitations. The PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases were searched for English study reports, published in the current century, of mere alloplastic surgical reconstruction of mandibular ablative defects. In 14 articles, there were 944 patients, with a median age of 58.7 years (interquartile range, 53.2 to 62 years); 58.7 percent (interquartile range, 66.7 to 78.6 percent) were male. Cases of squamous cell carcinoma per study constituted 93.5 percent (interquartile range, 81.5 to 100 percent). Defects were mostly lateral (Boyd classification) (60.5 percent; interquartile range, 56.2 to 62 percent) and received mostly conventional bridging plates (in 64.3 percent of the studies) and pedicled flaps (45.3 percent; interquartile range, 37.1 to 58.3 percent); 60.7 percent (interquartile range, 53.5 to 58.8 percent) received adjuvant therapy. At 32-month follow-up, the complication and failure rates were 40.1 percent (interquartile range, 26.7 to 58.6 percent) and 30.8 percent (interquartile range, 11.7 to 48.1 percent), respectively. The overall survival rate was 55 percent (interquartile range, 27.8 to 74 percent). Radiotherapy seemed to be a relative risk factor for complications (1.387; p = 0.014) and plate loss (1.585; p = 0.006). Crossing the midline seemed to be a relative risk factor for plate exposure (1.533; p = 0.000) and overall complications (1.385; p = 0.002). The results should be generalized cautiously. Alloplastic reconstructive surgery faces a remarkable lack of evidence. Relatively high complication and failure rates are areas of further concern.

  7. Determination of Gold Traces in 4th Century B.C. Silver Coins By Neutron Activation Analysis

    Ronen, Y.; Kubani, G.

    2004-01-01

    A method based on non-destructive neutron activation analysis was developed for measuring traces of gold in silver. This method requires a very small neutron source and, in this study, it was Am-Be of 5μCi. With a small neutron source, the equipment is not expensive and radiation protection problems are reduced. Our method was applied to ancient silver coins from the 4th-3rd centuries B.C. These coins were obols minted in Gaza and Yehud coins minted in Jerusalem. It was found that there is gold in all of them. Their relative gold content was found to be between 7*10 -3 and 8.9*10 - 3 with a relative accuracy of less than 7%. The gold content in silver coins can serve as a ''finger prints' for the origin of the silver

  8. Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.

    Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2010-12-16

    The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains

  9. Bond Market Analysis: the Main Constraints in the Research of 21st Century

    Ieva Astrauskaitė

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Searching for alternative source of bank financing, the view on capital market is taken. Recent research on capital market issues are arranged into four dimensions: theory and assumptions of efficient capital market, government’s role in it, other distortions and global interrelatedness. Main investigations are decentralized and visualized in “theoretical eight” model. Conclusions made on the diversity of interpretation of market efficiency, strongly expressed demand of information symmetry, soft actions of governments and the value of foreign performance in domestic markets. Furthermore, new approach to the classification of countries by their maturity in capital market is argued. The state of art of 2009-2012 of bond market and government debt is briefly described.

  10. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  11. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    Navarro, Marí a; Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity

  12. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Trigg, M.A.; Birch, C.E.; Neal, J.C.; Bates, P.D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P.J.; Winsemius, H.C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M.S.; Simpson, A.L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T.J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable

  13. Globalization and health: a framework for analysis and action.

    Woodward, D.; Drager, N.; Beaglehole, R.; Lipson, D.

    2001-01-01

    Globalization is a key challenge to public health, especially in developing countries, but the linkages between globalization and health are complex. Although a growing amount of literature has appeared on the subject, it is piecemeal, and suffers from a lack of an agreed framework for assessing the direct and indirect health effects of different aspects of globalization. This paper presents a conceptual framework for the linkages between economic globalization and health, with the intention that it will serve as a basis for synthesizing existing relevant literature, identifying gaps in knowledge, and ultimately developing national and international policies more favourable to health. The framework encompasses both the indirect effects on health, operating through the national economy, household economies and health-related sectors such as water, sanitation and education, as well as more direct effects on population-level and individual risk factors for health and on the health care system. Proposed also is a set of broad objectives for a programme of action to optimize the health effects of economic globalization. The paper concludes by identifying priorities for research corresponding with the five linkages identified as critical to the effects of globalization on health. PMID:11584737

  14. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-01-01

    Background: Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific a...

  15. Rotavirus - Global research density equalizing mapping and gender analysis.

    Köster, Corinna; Klingelhöfer, Doris; Groneberg, David A; Schwarzer, Mario

    2016-01-02

    Rotaviruses are the leading reason for dehydration and severe diarrheal disease and in infants and young children worldwide. An increasing number of related publications cause a crucial challenge to determine the relevant scientific output. Therefore, scientometric analyses are helpful to evaluate quantity as well as quality of the worldwide research activities on Rotavirus. Up to now, no in-depth global scientometric analysis relating to Rotavirus publications has been carried out. This study used scientometric tools and the method of density equalizing mapping to visualize the differences of the worldwide research effort referring to Rotavirus. The aim of the study was to compare scientific output geographically and over time by using an in-depth data analysis and New quality and quantity indices in science (NewQIS) tools. Furthermore, a gender analysis was part of the data interpretation. We retrieved all Rotavirus-related articles, which were published on "Rotavirus" during the time period from 1900 to 2013, from the Web of Science by a defined search term. These items were analyzed regarding quantitative and qualitative aspects, and visualized with the help of bibliometric methods and the technique of density equalizing mapping to show the differences of the worldwide research efforts. This work aimed to extend the current NewQIS platform. The 5906 Rotavirus associated articles were published in 138 countries from 1900 to 2013. The USA authored 2037 articles that equaled 34.5% of all published items followed by Japan with 576 articles and the United Kingdom - as the most productive representative of the European countries - with 495 articles. Furthermore, the USA established the most cooperations with other countries and was found to be in the center of an international collaborative network. We performed a gender analysis of authors per country (threshold was set at a publishing output of more than 100 articles by more than 50 authors whose names could be

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  17. Sequence Analysis of How Disability Influenced Life Trajectories in a Past Population from the Nineteenth-Century Sundsvall Region, Sweden

    Lotta Vikström

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Historically, little is known about whether and to what extent disabled people found work and formed families. To fill this gap, this study analyses the life course trajectories of both disabled and non-disabled individuals, between the ages of 15 and 33, from the Sundsvall region in Sweden during the nineteenth century. Having access to micro-data that report disabilities in a population of 8,874 individuals from the parish registers digitised by the Demographic Data Base, Umeå University, we employ sequence analysis on a series of events that are expected to occur in life of young adults: getting a job, marrying and becoming a parent, while also taking into account out-migration and death. Through this method we obtain a holistic picture of the life course of disabled people. Main findings show that their trajectories did not include work or family to the same extent as those of non-disabled people. Secondary findings concerning migration and mortality indicate that the disabled rarely out-migrated from the region, and they suffered from premature deaths. To our knowledge this is the first study to employ sequence analysis on a substantially large number of cases to provide demographic evidence of how disability shaped human trajectories in the past during an extended period of life. Accordingly, we detail our motivation for this method, describe our analytical approach, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with sequence analysis for our case study.

  18. An Appeal to the Global Health Community for a Tripartite Innovation: An "Essential Diagnostics List," "Health in All Policies," and "See-Through 21(st) Century Science and Ethics".

    Dove, Edward S; Barlas, I Ömer; Birch, Kean; Boehme, Catharina; Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander; Byne, William M; Chaverneff, Florence; Coşkun, Yavuz; Dahl, Marja-Liisa; Dereli, Türkay; Diwakar, Shyam; Elbeyli, Levent; Endrenyi, Laszlo; Eroğlu-Kesim, Belgin; Ferguson, Lynnette R; Güngör, Kıvanç; Gürsoy, Ulvi; Hekim, Nezih; Huzair, Farah; Kaushik, Kabeer; Kickbusch, Ilona; Kıroğlu, Olcay; Kolker, Eugene; Könönen, Eija; Lin, Biaoyang; Llerena, Adrian; Malhan, Faruk; Nair, Bipin; Patrinos, George P; Şardaş, Semra; Sert, Özlem; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Steuten, Lotte M G; Toraman, Cengiz; Vayena, Effy; Wang, Wei; Warnich, Louise; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-08-01

    Diagnostics spanning a wide range of new biotechnologies, including proteomics, metabolomics, and nanotechnology, are emerging as companion tests to innovative medicines. In this Opinion, we present the rationale for promulgating an "Essential Diagnostics List." Additionally, we explain the ways in which adopting a vision for "Health in All Policies" could link essential diagnostics with robust and timely societal outcomes such as sustainable development, human rights, gender parity, and alleviation of poverty. We do so in three ways. First, we propose the need for a new, "see through" taxonomy for knowledge-based innovation as we transition from the material industries (e.g., textiles, plastic, cement, glass) dominant in the 20(th) century to the anticipated knowledge industry of the 21st century. If knowledge is the currency of the present century, then it is sensible to adopt an approach that thoroughly examines scientific knowledge, starting with the production aims, methods, quality, distribution, access, and the ends it purports to serve. Second, we explain that this knowledge trajectory focus on innovation is crucial and applicable across all sectors, including public, private, or public-private partnerships, as it underscores the fact that scientific knowledge is a co-product of technology, human values, and social systems. By making the value systems embedded in scientific design and knowledge co-production transparent, we all stand to benefit from sustainable and transparent science. Third, we appeal to the global health community to consider the necessary qualities of good governance for 21st century organizations that will embark on developing essential diagnostics. These have importance not only for science and knowledge-based innovation, but also for the ways in which we can build open, healthy, and peaceful civil societies today and for future generations.

  19. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

    2010-01-01

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  20. Indian Handicrafts in Globalization Times: An analysis of Global-Local Dynamics

    Pradeep Kumar Jena

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – which refers to the growing integration of societies, economies and cultures around the world, has become one of the most hotly-debated topics and key area of research among the policy makers, statesmen, corporate, politicians and academia respectively over the past few years. As India opens up her doors to the multinationals during the era of economic reform and liberalized market, putting an end to the ‘license raj’, it is not only the economies that often meet in the global market sphere, but also the people and cultures, which bring a new dimension to the multi-cultural setting. What we can see in present day modern world is that there is always a cross-cultural interaction between the ‘local’ and ‘global’ and the much discussed ‘global village’, is now not just a possibility but a reality despite many contradictions. Talking about Indian Handicrafts, which constitutes a significant segment of the decentralized sector of the economy, its export has reached at a commendable height. Indian folk art and crafts which are the integral parts of the Indian culture and tradition, are in high demand among the western consumers. Again, foreign fashion industry borrows a great deal from Indian appliquéd motifs Saree designs, an ethnic Indian wear. Needless to say, the borders between the world cultures are now eroding out and becoming irrelevant, therefore prompting to call it as a deterritorialized world.But notwithstanding, the real concern for many of us is that, can the ‘local’ really meet with the ‘global’ by truly sustaining its localness? The biggest problem in the Indian Handicraft industry is that the village craftsmen remain concerned that with free trade and mass production, hand-made products from other parts of the world will out price the products of their hard labour. So the basic question arises, is globalization a panacea for every human problems that the mother earth is facing now? With a

  1. Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja; Navarro, Marí a; Merks, Roeland; Blom, Joke

    2015-01-01

    ) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided

  2. Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts-a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

    Rogelj, Joeri; Chen, Claudine; Nabel, Julia; Hare, William; Markmann, Kathleen; Meinshausen, Malte; Macey, Kirsten; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hoehne, Niklas; Krogh Andersen, Katrine

    2010-01-01

    This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO 2 and CO 2 -equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 deg. C, and even more so for 1.5 deg. C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 deg. C goal is likely to become less feasible.

  3. A Snapshot of the World of Global Multinationals – An Industry Based Analysis of Fortune Global 500 Companies

    Ogrean Claudia

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available For better or for worse, the “corporations rule the world” assertion is nowadays more actual and accurate than ever before, as multinational companies represent the undisputable engine of the globalization process, and the latter continuously (recreates the background against which global multinationals are flourishing, while reinforcing their “domination”. Since 1995, the Fortune Global 500 ranking (FG 500 annually provides a comprehensive and eloquent image of the world of global multinationals; the merits of the FG 500 ranking go beyond the synchronic approach of the characteristics of global multinationals (in terms of revenues, profits, assets and employees - by sector, industry and country, as it also favors diachronic analysis and comparisons - which are essential for strategists in identifying evolving trends and substantiating corporate strategies able to lead to sustainable competitiveness. The paper aims to determine the contribution of sectors to FG 500 ranking in 2016, on one hand, and to emphasize on some industry-based dynamics in FG 500 - by comparatively analyzing the 2016 and 1996 rankings, on the other hand.

  4. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  5. Twenty First Century Cyberbullying Defined: An Analysis of Intent, Repetition and Emotional Response

    Walker, Carol Marie

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the extent and impact that cyberbullying has on the undergraduate college student and provide a current definition for the event. A priori power analysis guided this research to provide an 80 percent probability of detecting a real effect with medium effect size. Adequate research power was essential to…

  6. EDXRF portable system used in the analysis of altars, sculptures and paintings from XVII and XVIII centuries in Brazil

    Freitas, R.P.; Calza, C.; Lopes, R.T.; Santos, R.O.

    2011-01-01

    Full text: The preservation of cultural heritage has acquired increasing interest in the last decades and many scientific techniques have been employed to analyze paintings, manuscripts, ceramics, glasses, statues, coins and metal artifacts in order to solve problems related to restoration, conservation, dating and attribution of artworks. There is also an increasing trend for non-destructive investigations since most of the samples are unique and precious objects of art and archaeology. X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) is the most widely used investigative technique in the field of archaeometry, due to a number of favorable analytical characteristics, such as multielemental and non-destructive analysis, high sensitivity and applicability to a wide range of samples. In this work, XRF was used to analyze altars, sculptures and paintings in the Saint Anthony Convent (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The cornerstone of this convent was launched in 1608, by the Franciscan friars, and the construction of the church was finished in 1620. The Saint Anthony sculpture in the main altar is one of the few remaining pieces from the XVII century in Rio de Janeiro. The splendid Baroque carvings of the chapel, covered with integral gilding, in the national Portuguese style, dates from 1716 to 1719. The results obtained during the analyses have been used in the meticulous process of restoration, developed in the last two years, in order to recover the original splendour of this important piece of our cultural heritage. The analyses were carried out with an EDXRF portable system developed in the Nuclear Instrumentation Laboratory, consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 μA, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. In each sample were obtained several spectra, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 1.5 and 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL from IAEA. The analysis of the golden carvings of the altars, in

  7. Analysis of textbooks in terms of interpretation of global issues

    Brodníček, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    In the contemporary world, when the whole world is connected, the fact saying that anything what happens on the other side of the world does not have influence to our lives is not truthful anymore. We live in an era of globalization. Therefore, it is important to focus on the global issues already at school and also on the way in which they concern us. However, it should be borne in the mind that, the most important thing is the way, how teachers explain it to their students. The main aim of ...

  8. Sociocultural and institutional drivers and constraints to mineral supply; the meaning of scarcity in the 21st century: drivers and constraints to the supply of minerals using regional, national and global perspectives

    Brown, William M.

    2002-01-01

    The sociocultural dimensions of mineral supply at the outset of the 21st century are making the supply process increasingly complex. The dimensions encompass legal, financial, environmental, cultural, and global implications of mining, and are driving unprecedented change in the way minerals supply will be accomplished in the future. Minerals scarcity on a global scale is subordinate to other societal issues about mineral resources and reserves estimated to meet society's demands for decades to centuries in the future. This report reviews historical and present-day sociocultural drivers of change, and reactions of the minerals industry to these drivers. It is reflective primarily of conditions in the United States, but also uses examples from other countries. It expresses viewpoints on sociocultural drivers as seen by constituents of the minerals industry and several other communities of interest including Aboriginal peoples, non-government organizations; labor; mining-dependent communities; mining-affected communities; researchers; and government (federal, state/provincial, and local). It provides overviews of the demand for minerals in the United States, and the status of land available for mining. The report uses a case study of a metals mining project in Wisconsin to illustrate specific sociocultural drivers and constraints to minerals supply, and how these influence the minerals industry. Over the past 150 years, a progression of sociocultural movements under the headings of conservationism, environmentalism, and sustainable development have nurtured societal values that have come to influence the mineral supply process in important ways. These movements reflect a continuing tension between the demand for minerals and other resources, and the simultaneous demand for aesthetic, spiritual, ecological, cultural, and other attributes of the land. The tension is an important element in current international debates about the meaning and future of sustainable

  9. Facilitation of the PED analysis of large molecules by using global coordinates.

    Jamróz, Michał H; Ostrowski, Sławomir; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz

    2015-10-05

    Global coordinates have been found to be useful in the potential energy distribution (PED) analyses of the following large molecules: [13]-acene and [33]-helicene. The global coordinate is defined based on much distanced fragments of the analysed molecule, whereas so far, the coordinates used in the analysis were based on stretchings, bendings, or torsions of the adjacent atoms. It has been shown that the PED analyses performed using the global coordinate and the classical ones can lead to exactly the same PED contributions. The global coordinates may significantly improve the facility of the analysis of the vibrational spectra of large molecules. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Global phylogenetic analysis of contemporary aleutian mink disease viruses (AMDVs)

    Ryt-Hansen, Pia; Hagberg, E. E.; Chriél, Mariann

    2017-01-01

    a strain originating from Sweden. In contrast, we did not identify any potential source for the other and more widespread outbreak strain. To the authors knowledge this is the first major global phylogenetic study of contemporary AMDV partial NS1 sequences. The study proved that partial NS1 sequencing can...

  11. Maximum-entropy clustering algorithm and its global convergence analysis

    2001-01-01

    Constructing a batch of differentiable entropy functions touniformly approximate an objective function by means of the maximum-entropy principle, a new clustering algorithm, called maximum-entropy clustering algorithm, is proposed based on optimization theory. This algorithm is a soft generalization of the hard C-means algorithm and possesses global convergence. Its relations with other clustering algorithms are discussed.

  12. The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis

    Neumann, K.; Verburg, P.H.; Stehfest, E.; Muller, C.

    2010-01-01

    Global grain production has increased dramatically during the past 50 years, mainly as a consequence of intensified land management and introduction of new technologies. For the future, a strong increase in grain demand is expected, which may be fulfilled by further agricultural intensification

  13. Characterization and global analysis of a family of Poisson structures

    Hernandez-Bermejo, Benito

    2006-01-01

    A three-dimensional family of solutions of the Jacobi equations for Poisson systems is characterized. In spite of its general form it is possible the explicit and global determination of its main features, such as the symplectic structure and the construction of the Darboux canonical form. Examples are given

  14. Characterization and global analysis of a family of Poisson structures

    Hernandez-Bermejo, Benito [Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnologia, Edificio Departamental II, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933 (Mostoles), Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: benito.hernandez@urjc.es

    2006-06-26

    A three-dimensional family of solutions of the Jacobi equations for Poisson systems is characterized. In spite of its general form it is possible the explicit and global determination of its main features, such as the symplectic structure and the construction of the Darboux canonical form. Examples are given.

  15. A comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction scenarios

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Saveyn, Bert; Soria, Antonio; Szabo, Laszlo; Van Regemorter, Denise; Van Ierland, Tom

    2013-01-01

    The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs. - Highlights: ► Burden sharing of global mitigation efforts should consider equity and efficiency. ► The comparability of allocations across countries is based on four indicators. ► The four indicators are GDP/capita, GHG/GDP, population growth, and GHG trend. ► Any possible agreement on effort comparability needs a combination of indicators. ► We analyse the role played by the degree of flexibility in global carbon trading

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  17. The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

    Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

    2016-01-01

    In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

  18. The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications

    2009-05-12

    Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas Publicas. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (INDEC). Utilizacion de la Capacidid Instalada en la Industria...2008 and International Monetary Fund. Global Markets Monitor. March 17, 2009. 102 Republica Argentina. Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas Publicas

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  20. Methodological considerations for global analysis of cellular FLIM/FRET measurements

    Adbul Rahim, Nur Aida; Pelet, Serge; Kamm, Roger D.; So, Peter T. C.

    2012-02-01

    Global algorithms can improve the analysis of fluorescence energy transfer (FRET) measurement based on fluorescence lifetime microscopy. However, global analysis of FRET data is also susceptible to experimental artifacts. This work examines several common artifacts and suggests remedial experimental protocols. Specifically, we examined the accuracy of different methods for instrument response extraction and propose an adaptive method based on the mean lifetime of fluorescent proteins. We further examined the effects of image segmentation and a priori constraints on the accuracy of lifetime extraction. Methods to test the applicability of global analysis on cellular data are proposed and demonstrated. The accuracy of global fitting degrades with lower photon count. By systematically tracking the effect of the minimum photon count on lifetime and FRET prefactors when carrying out global analysis, we demonstrate a correction procedure to recover the correct FRET parameters, allowing us to obtain protein interaction information even in dim cellular regions with photon counts as low as 100 per decay curve.

  1. Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

    D. Wisser

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth's carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result of climate warming in the 21st century. We use a geospatially explicit representation of peat areas and peat depth from a recently-compiled database and a geothermal model to estimate northern North America soil temperature responses to predicted changes in air temperature. We find that, despite a widespread decline in the areas classified as permafrost, soil temperatures in peatlands respond more slowly to increases in air temperature owing to the insulating properties of peat. We estimate that an additional 670 km3 of peat soils in North America, containing ~33 Pg C, could be seasonally thawed by the end of the century, representing ~20 % of the total peat volume in Alaska and Canada. Warming conditions result in a lengthening of the soil thaw period by ~40 days, averaged over the model domain. These changes have potentially important implications for the carbon balance of peat soils.

  2. Disciplinary analysis of nuclear engineering education for 21st century style science and technology

    Woo, Taeho

    2012-01-01

    The nuclear engineering education (NEE) is analyzed by the aspect of the advanced science and technology which is characterized by interdisciplinary R and D. The creative innovation is a goal of the education. This work is performed by the conceptual analysis and numerical analysis. Creativity and its innovation are represented as a critical role in the science and technology. So, the education should follow the characteristics of the creativity and its innovation philosophy. Using system dynamics (SD) method, the quantification of the education effect is performed. In addition, the dynamical simulation shows the expected situations of the education usefulness. The final result shows the highest value is 19.11 of Nuclear Industry Innovation. The value increases gradually. So, the education is well developed, as time goes on in this study. In this paper, the education of the nuclear science and technology is modelled for the interdisciplinary promotions in the nuclear industry. The conventional technology has focused on the unit subject and its related technologies. By the way, creativity and its innovation are shown as a critical role in the science and technology. Hence, the education should follow the characteristics of the creativity and its innovation philosophy. Following the characteristics of the 21 st style science and technology, it is necessary to construct the education program of the information technology (IT), nanotechnology (NT), and biotechnology (BT). (orig.)

  3. Disciplinary analysis of nuclear engineering education for 21{sup st} century style science and technology

    Woo, Taeho [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Yoon, Jaehwan [2G-PEM Engineers, Inc., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-03-15

    The nuclear engineering education (NEE) is analyzed by the aspect of the advanced science and technology which is characterized by interdisciplinary R and D. The creative innovation is a goal of the education. This work is performed by the conceptual analysis and numerical analysis. Creativity and its innovation are represented as a critical role in the science and technology. So, the education should follow the characteristics of the creativity and its innovation philosophy. Using system dynamics (SD) method, the quantification of the education effect is performed. In addition, the dynamical simulation shows the expected situations of the education usefulness. The final result shows the highest value is 19.11 of Nuclear Industry Innovation. The value increases gradually. So, the education is well developed, as time goes on in this study. In this paper, the education of the nuclear science and technology is modelled for the interdisciplinary promotions in the nuclear industry. The conventional technology has focused on the unit subject and its related technologies. By the way, creativity and its innovation are shown as a critical role in the science and technology. Hence, the education should follow the characteristics of the creativity and its innovation philosophy. Following the characteristics of the 21{sup st} style science and technology, it is necessary to construct the education program of the information technology (IT), nanotechnology (NT), and biotechnology (BT). (orig.)

  4. Birth spacing and fertility limitation: a behavioral analysis of a nineteenth century frontier population.

    Anderton, D L; Bean, L L

    1985-05-01

    Our analysis of changing birth interval distributions over the course of a fertility transition from natural to controlled fertility has examined three closely related propositions. First, within both natural fertility populations (identified at the aggregate level) and cohorts following the onset of fertility limitation, we hypothesized that substantial groups of women with long birth intervals across the individually specified childbearing careers could be identified. That is, even during periods when fertility behavior at the aggregate level is consistent with a natural fertility regime, birth intervals at all parities are inversely related to completed family size. Our tabular analysis enables us to conclude that birth spacing patterns are parity dependent; there is stability in CEB-parity specific mean and birth interval variance over the entire transition. Our evidence does not suggest that the early group of women limiting and spacing births was marked by infecundity. Secondly, the transition appears to be associated with an increasingly larger proportion of women shifting to the same spacing schedules associated with smaller families in earlier cohorts. Thirdly, variations in birth spacing by age of marriage indicate that changes in birth intervals over time are at least indirectly associated with age of marriage, indicating an additional compositional effect. The evidence we have presented on spacing behavior does not negate the argument that parity-dependent stopping behavior was a powerful factor in the fertility transition. Our data also provide evidence of attempts to truncate childbearing. Specifically, the smaller the completed family size, the longer the ultimate birth interval; and ultimate birth intervals increase across cohorts controlling CEB and parity. But spacing appears to represent an additional strategy of fertility limitation. Thus, it may be necessary to distinguish spacing and stopping behavior if one wishes to clarify behavioral

  5. Global economic activity and crude oil prices. A cointegration analysis

    He, Yanan; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity. The Kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity. Based on a supply-demand framework and the cointegration theory, we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the Kilian economic index and a trade weighted US dollar index, and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the Kilian economic index through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run impacts. We also develop an empirically stable, data-coherent and single-equation error-correction model (ECM) which has sensible economic properties. Empirical results based on the ECM show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the Kilian economic index is a relatively drawn-out process. (author)

  6. Training needs for toxicity testing in the 21st century: a survey-informed analysis.

    Lapenna, Silvia; Gabbert, Silke; Worth, Andrew

    2012-12-01

    Current training needs on the use of alternative methods in predictive toxicology, including new approaches based on mode-of-action (MoA) and adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concepts, are expected to evolve rapidly. In order to gain insight into stakeholder preferences for training, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) conducted a single-question survey with twelve experts in regulatory agencies, industry, national research organisations, NGOs and consultancies. Stakeholder responses were evaluated by means of theory-based qualitative data analysis. Overall, a set of training topics were identified that relate both to general background information and to guidance for applying alternative testing methods. In particular, for the use of in silico methods, stakeholders emphasised the need for training on data integration and evaluation, in order to increase confidence in applying these methods for regulatory purposes. Although the survey does not claim to offer an exhaustive overview of the training requirements, its findings support the conclusion that the development of well-targeted and tailor-made training opportunities that inform about the usefulness of alternative methods, in particular those that offer practical experience in the application of in silico methods, deserves more attention. This should be complemented by transparent information and guidance on the interpretation of the results generated by these methods and software tools. 2012 FRAME.

  7. Analysis of gold coins on the XIX century by portable XRF

    Pereira, Marcelo O.; Felix, Valter de S.; Freitas, Renato P.

    2017-01-01

    Coins are cultural symbols and reflect important historical events through of the history. Archaeologists, historians and other experts make use of the study of coins (Numismatics) to reconstruct the economy, forms of commerce, customs, religion, political history and art of people and region throughout the globe. The knowledge about the composition of the metal alloy of coins is essential to characterize the fabrication in a historical period and identify possible falsifications. The X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) is a technique of analysis spectroscopic widely used in archaeometry to investigate the elemental composition of pigments, ceramic objects, metal alloy. In this work were XRF analyzes used in a rare coin of the coronation of the emperor D. Pedro I in 1822, Brazilian coins of 1816 and a Portuguese coin of 1823 from the collection of the Museu Histórico Nacional of Rio de Janeiro (MHN). The XRF analyzes were performed using a portable Bruker TRACE IV model system, the spectra operation at a voltage of 40 keV and electric current of 10 uA in acquisition time of 60s. The results indicated the presence of Au, Ag, Cu. The portable X-ray system was shown to be powerful tool in the investigation of metallic alloys with high concentration. (author)

  8. X-ray fluorescence and computed radiography analysis of a famous brazilian painting from XIX century

    Calza, Cristiane; Oliveira, Davi F.; Rocha, Henrique S.; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu

    2009-01-01

    This work used Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) and Computed Radiography (CR) to evaluate the general conditions of the painting 'Gioventu' (Eliseu Visconti, 1898), identifying possible problems, areas that revealed signs of previous retouchings and the pigments used by the artist. EDXRF measurements were carried out with a portable system consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 μA, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. Several spectra were obtained in each color, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL (IAEA). The results revealed that the drawings were made over a preparatory layer of lead white. Some pigments identified were: yellow, red and brown ochre; umbra; vermilion; cobalt blue; etc. The experimental setup used in the CR analysis consisted of an Oxford X-ray source, operating at 50 kV and 200 μA, placed at 85 cm from the painting, a GE CR 50P portable computed radiography scanner and a Fuji imaging plate detector. The exposure time was 600 s. The radiographic images revealed that the painting was in a good state of conservation and also a complete composition hidden underneath the visible paint layer.(author)

  9. Dynamic and Fatigue Analysis of an 18th Century Steel Arch Bridge

    Boumechra, Nadir; Hamdaoui, Karim

    2008-01-01

    Within the 'Oran-Tlemcen' railway line realization project (159 km), several bridges were built by the Railroads Algerian West Company. 7 km from the east of Tlemcen city, this railway line must cross a very broken mountainous collar, that's why the French engineer 'Gustave Eiffel' was solicited to construct a 68 m length bridge. In 1890, an arch steel truss bridge was realized. The bridge presents 300 m of apron curvature radius and, currently, is considered as one of the most important monuments of the Algerian historical heritage. Considering the age of the bridge and the evolution of the railway loads in time, it was essential to check the good behavior of the studied structure. For that, analyses to verify the physical and mechanical properties of the growth iron members are made. A finite element model of the bridge was built and numerical simulations were drawn. The structural vibration conducted analysis permit to understand the behavior of this particular structure, then to evaluate (in detail) the rate of the structure fatigue

  10. Analysis of gold coins on the XIX century by portable XRF

    Pereira, Marcelo O. [Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET/RJ), Nova Iguaçu, RJ (Brazil); Felix, Valter de S.; Freitas, Renato P. [Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro (LISCOMP/IFRJ), Paracambi, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Instrumentação e Simulação Computacional; Aranha, Paula de J.M.; Heringer, Pedro C.S., E-mail: marcelocefetrj@gmail.com, E-mail: renato.freitas@ifrj.edu.br, E-mail: Pedro.Heringer@museus.gov.br, E-mail: Paula.Aranha@museus.gov.br [Museu Histórico Nacional (IBRAM), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Coins are cultural symbols and reflect important historical events through of the history. Archaeologists, historians and other experts make use of the study of coins (Numismatics) to reconstruct the economy, forms of commerce, customs, religion, political history and art of people and region throughout the globe. The knowledge about the composition of the metal alloy of coins is essential to characterize the fabrication in a historical period and identify possible falsifications. The X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) is a technique of analysis spectroscopic widely used in archaeometry to investigate the elemental composition of pigments, ceramic objects, metal alloy. In this work were XRF analyzes used in a rare coin of the coronation of the emperor D. Pedro I in 1822, Brazilian coins of 1816 and a Portuguese coin of 1823 from the collection of the Museu Histórico Nacional of Rio de Janeiro (MHN). The XRF analyzes were performed using a portable Bruker TRACE IV model system, the spectra operation at a voltage of 40 keV and electric current of 10 uA in acquisition time of 60s. The results indicated the presence of Au, Ag, Cu. The portable X-ray system was shown to be powerful tool in the investigation of metallic alloys with high concentration. (author)

  11. Why Fish Oil Fails: A Comprehensive 21st Century Lipids-Based Physiologic Analysis

    B. S. Peskin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The medical community suffered three significant fish oil failures/setbacks in 2013. Claims that fish oil’s EPA/DHA would stop the progression of heart disease were crushed when The Risk and Prevention Study Collaborative Group (Italy released a conclusive negative finding regarding fish oil for those patients with high risk factors but no previous myocardial infarction. Fish oil failed in all measures of CVD prevention—both primary and secondary. Another major 2013 setback occurred when fish oil’s DHA was shown to significantly increase prostate cancer in men, in particular, high-grade prostate cancer, in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT analysis by Brasky et al. Another monumental failure occurred in 2013 whereby fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to improve macular degeneration. In 2010, fish oil’s EPA/DHA failed to help Alzheimer’s victims, even those with low DHA levels. These are by no means isolated failures. The promise of fish oil and its so-called active ingredients EPA / DHA fails time and time again in clinical trials. This lipids-based physiologic review will explain precisely why there should have never been expectation for success. This review will focus on underpublicized lipid science with a focus on physiology.

  12. Why fish oil fails: a comprehensive 21st century lipids-based physiologic analysis.

    Peskin, B S

    2014-01-01

    The medical community suffered three significant fish oil failures/setbacks in 2013. Claims that fish oil's EPA/DHA would stop the progression of heart disease were crushed when The Risk and Prevention Study Collaborative Group (Italy) released a conclusive negative finding regarding fish oil for those patients with high risk factors but no previous myocardial infarction. Fish oil failed in all measures of CVD prevention-both primary and secondary. Another major 2013 setback occurred when fish oil's DHA was shown to significantly increase prostate cancer in men, in particular, high-grade prostate cancer, in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) analysis by Brasky et al. Another monumental failure occurred in 2013 whereby fish oil's EPA/DHA failed to improve macular degeneration. In 2010, fish oil's EPA/DHA failed to help Alzheimer's victims, even those with low DHA levels. These are by no means isolated failures. The promise of fish oil and its so-called active ingredients EPA / DHA fails time and time again in clinical trials. This lipids-based physiologic review will explain precisely why there should have never been expectation for success. This review will focus on underpublicized lipid science with a focus on physiology.

  13. X-ray fluorescence and computed radiography analysis of a famous brazilian painting from XIX century

    Calza, Cristiane; Oliveira, Davi F.; Rocha, Henrique S.; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Instrumentacao Nuclear], e-mail: ccalza@lin.ufrj.br; Pedreira, Andrea [Museu Nacional de Belas Artes, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This work used Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) and Computed Radiography (CR) to evaluate the general conditions of the painting 'Gioventu' (Eliseu Visconti, 1898), identifying possible problems, areas that revealed signs of previous retouchings and the pigments used by the artist. EDXRF measurements were carried out with a portable system consisting of an X-ray tube Oxford TF3005 with W anode, operating at 25 kV and 100 {mu}A, and a Si-PIN XR-100CR detector from Amptek. Several spectra were obtained in each color, with an acquisition time of 300 s and a beam collimation of 2 mm. The spectra were analyzed using the software QXAS-AXIL (IAEA). The results revealed that the drawings were made over a preparatory layer of lead white. Some pigments identified were: yellow, red and brown ochre; umbra; vermilion; cobalt blue; etc. The experimental setup used in the CR analysis consisted of an Oxford X-ray source, operating at 50 kV and 200 {mu}A, placed at 85 cm from the painting, a GE CR 50P portable computed radiography scanner and a Fuji imaging plate detector. The exposure time was 600 s. The radiographic images revealed that the painting was in a good state of conservation and also a complete composition hidden underneath the visible paint layer.(author)

  14. Hydropower versus irrigation—an analysis of global patterns

    Zeng, Ruijie; Cai, Ximing; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju

    2017-03-01

    Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key

  15. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  16. The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications

    2009-10-02

    tariffs and new non-tariff measures (non-automatic licenses, reference prices, etc.) affecting merchandise trade. The WTO also compiled a list of new...stores, restaurants , and bars and could cost more than 40,000 jobs. Closing the assembly line in Fremont marks the end of large-scale auto manufacturing...and the 20- City Composite is down 29.1%. March 31. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that the volume of global merchandise trade would

  17. Economic-Social Analysis of Global Illicit Drug Trade

    Salahedin Ghaderi

    2003-01-01

    Political unstability, less respect to the role of law, low life standards and suitable conditions for poppy/coca cultivation, have all affected on growing illicit drug international trafficking. Colombia is the center for global cocaine industry. Colombians had to use ship in the Carribean but now they pass Mexico where the costs are half of using ship. Mexican traffickers permit that the domestic poppy plants turned into herion, Colombian cocaine transited to USA and methamephtamine manufac...

  18. The Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications

    2009-02-20

    Takeover Plan. Bloomberg. October 21, 2008 and Latin American Monitor: Southern Cone. January 2009. 77 Republica Argentina. Ministerio de Economia y...Finanzas Publicas. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos. Intercambio Comercial Argentino. Buenos Aires, January 28, 2009. 78 Global Insight...fund a rescue of Bank of America which guarantees $118 billion in troubled assets. January 6. Chile announced a $4 billion stimulus package

  19. Vertically mounted bifacial photovoltaic modules: A global analysis

    Guo, Siyu; Walsh, Timothy Michael; Peters, Marius

    2013-01-01

    Bifacial PV (photovoltaic) modules have recently come to increasing attention and various system designs have been investigated. In this paper, a global comparison is made between vertically mounted bifacial modules facing East–West and conventionally mounted mono-facial modules. An analytical method is used to calculate the radiation received by these two module configurations. It is found that the answer to the question which of these two module configurations performs better strongly depends on three factors: (i) the latitude, (ii) the local diffuse fraction and (iii) the albedo. In a subsequent part of the paper, the minimum albedo required to result in a better performance for vertically mounted bifacial modules is calculated for every place in the world. The calculation is based on measured data of the diffuse light fraction and the results are shown in the form of a global map. Finally, the albedo requirements are compared with the measured global albedo distribution. The calculation allows a distinct decision which module configuration is more suitable for a certain place in the world. The result is also shown as a map defining the corresponding areas. - Highlights: • Vertically mounted bifacial module and conventionally monofacial module are compared. • The key factors affecting the performance of the two configurations are investigated. • Which module configuration is more suitable for each place is shown in a world map. • The minimum albedo for bifacial modules to have a better performance is calculated

  20. Global analysis of anthropogenic debris ingestion by sea turtles.

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-02-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    Pasternak, A.D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  2. Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis

    Pasternak, A.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    This paper explores the relationship between measures of human well-being and consumption of energy and electricity. A correlation is shown between the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and annual per- capita electricity consumption for 60 populous countries comprising 90% of the world population. In this correlation, HDI reaches a maximum value when electricity consumption is about 4,000 kWh per person per year, well below consumption levels for most developed countries but also well above the level for developing countries. The correlation with electricity use is better than with total primary energy use. Global electricity consumption associated with a ''Human Development Scenario'' is estimated by adding to U.S. Department of Energy projections for the year 2020 increments of additional electricity consumption sufficient to reach 4,000 kWh per capita on a country-by-country basis. A roughly constant ratio of primary energy consumption to electric energy consumption is observed for countries with high levels of electricity use, and this ratio is used to estimate global primary energy consumption in the Human Development Scenario. The Human Development Scenario implies significantly greater global consumption of electricity and primary energy than do projections for 2020 by the DOE and others. (author)

  3. Analysis of the effects of the TMI accident on the public health after nearly a quarter of Century

    Arredondo S, C.

    2003-01-01

    After almost a quarter of century of the accident happened in the nuclear plant of the Three Miles Island (TMI), they continue being published studies that analyze the effects in the population's health that lived in the surroundings of the plant. In this work a review of the studies but outstanding carried out to the date is made, considering with certain detail the made suppositions, the methods used and the obtained results. Since some studies contradict those suppositions, methods and results of the other ones, we seek to make one impartial and objective evaluation of all the analyses to obtain coherent conclusions and without bias. The underlying concepts to the epidemiological studies were revised, making emphasis in those that can introduce some bias. The models that exist on the effect in the health of the population of low dose were also revised. It was also revised the published correspondence in the scientific literature among the different authors, analyzing the different arguments, to decide which are those of more validity. A very important factor at this time is that a lapse has elapsed sufficiently appropriate as to think that the probability of changes in the tendencies of observed cancer diseases it changes. In our analyses it was tried to take into account that the suppositions and methodologies used in the studies were supported by those facts that can be checked by the existent registrations to the date and not by anecdotes or preconceived ideas. Lastly the conclusions of this work of review and analysis are presented. (Author)

  4. Global Analysis of Anthropogenic Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

    Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

    2014-01-01

    Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. Análisis Global de la Ingesta de Residuos Antropogénicos por Tortugas Marinas La ingesta de residuos marinos puede tener efectos letales y subletales sobre las tortugas marinas y otros animales. Aunque hay investigadores que han reportado la ingesta de residuos antropogénicos por tortugas marinas y la incidencia de la ingesta de residuos ha incrementado con el tiempo, no ha habido una síntesis global del fenómeno desde 1985. Por esto analizamos 37 estudios publicados, desde

  5. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  6. Discourse Analysis of Domination of the Global Human Rights

    Nasrin Mosaffa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we are attempting to answer the question of how the Global Human Rights as an idea which is in accordance with common sense took shape. The conceptual and theoretical framework and research method of this exploration is based on discourse analysis and in step with Laclu and Mouffe's agenda. Therefore, phenomenon of Human Rights in the present analysis is thought of as a discourse. This discourse, granted temporary stability to central signs such as human dignity, liberty, equality, tolerance that their meanings were being fluctuated in World War II, around nodal point of “Human Rights” and has been dominated in the agenda of International Politics. This discourse, of course was validated by exclusion and rejection of other means of these signs. The ultimate goal of this study is to show the contingent and the historical of phenomenon of Human Rights. ما در مقالۀ حاضر در صدد پاسخ گفتن به این پرسش هستیم که چگونه حقوق بشر جهانی به مثابۀ انگاره‌ای مطابق با عقل سلیم شکل گرفت. چارچوب مفهومی، نظری و روش تحقیق این کاوش، تحلیل گفتمانی و همگام با دستورکار لاکلا و موف است. پدیدۀ حقوق بشر در تحلیل حاضر به صورت گفتمانی تصور می‌شود. این گفتمان، نشانه‌های محوری چون کرامت انسانی، آزادی، برابری، مدارا را که معنایشان‌ در زمان جنگ جهانی دوم در حال شناورشدن بود، حول دال مرکزی «حقوق بشر» ثبات موقت بخشیده و در دستورکار سیاست بین‌الملل مسلط ساخته است. البته این گفتمان با برون‌گذاری و طرد سایر معانی از این نشانه‌ها اعتبار یافت. هدف نهایی این مطالعه، نشان دادن

  7. The Community College and a Rising Global Imaginary: An Analysis of Practical Reasoning, 1950-2013

    Ayers, David F.; Palmadessa, Allison L.

    2015-01-01

    Through an analysis of 245 issues of the "Community College Journal" published between 1950 and 2013, we show how three discourses--international understanding and geopolitics, economic competitiveness, and global citizenship--informed practical reasoning about a rising global imaginary and its implications for the community college. By…

  8. The Determination of Children's Knowledge of Global Lunar Patterns from Online Essays Using Text Mining Analysis

    Cheon, Jongpil; Lee, Sangno; Smith, Walter; Song, Jaeki; Kim, Yongjin

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use text mining analysis of early adolescents' online essays to determine their knowledge of global lunar patterns. Australian and American students in grades five to seven wrote about global lunar patterns they had discovered by sharing observations with each other via the Internet. These essays were analyzed for…

  9. The constructive process in the Cimorro zone in the the Cathedral of Avila, (century XII-XIV. Hypothesis and its verification through the analysis of Structural Stability Smart and Sustainable Offices (SSO

    Mª A. Benito Pradillo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hypothesis about the order in the constructive process for the head zone in the Cathedral of Ávila, called Cimorro. The hypothesis proposed in this area considers for its construction three different stages: XII Century, XIII Century and XIV Century. The proposed hypotesis have been verified with the Analysis of Stability realised. The theoretical Framework used is the Limit Analysis to Masonry Structures. After prooving the Structural Stability for each of the building stages, the following conclusions are made: Through the XII Century, the possibility of closing the central vault without Buttress System for a short period of time and the subsequent placement of a tribune is stated. A fortification formed by the barbican and the «adarves» were built during the XIII Century. In the XIV Century, the tribune is removed and replaced with the Buttress System with buttress and double flying buttress, which we can see nowadays.

  10. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  11. Mars Global Surveyor Ka-Band Frequency Data Analysis

    Morabito, D.; Butman, S.; Shambayati, S.

    2000-01-01

    The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, launched on November 7, 1996, carries an experimental space-to-ground telecommunications link at Ka-band (32 GHz) along with the primary X-band (8.4 GHz) downlink. The signals are simultaneously transmitted from a 1.5-in diameter parabolic high gain antenna (HGA) on MGS and received by a beam-waveguide (BWG) R&D 34-meter antenna located in NASA's Goldstone Deep Space Network (DSN) complex near Barstow, California. The projected 5-dB link advantage of Ka-band relative to X-band was confirmed in previous reports using measurements of MGS signal strength data acquired during the first two years of the link experiment from December 1996 to December 1998. Analysis of X-band and Ka-band frequency data and difference frequency (fx-fka)/3.8 data will be presented here. On board the spacecraft, a low-power sample of the X-band downlink from the transponder is upconverted to 32 GHz, the Ka-band frequency, amplified to I-W using a Solid State Power Amplifier, and radiated from the dual X/Ka HGA. The X-band signal is amplified by one of two 25 W TWTAs. An upconverter first downconverts the 8.42 GHz X-band signal to 8 GHz and then multiplies using a X4 multiplier producing the 32 GHz Ka-band frequency. The frequency source selection is performed by an RF switch which can be commanded to select a VCO (Voltage Controlled Oscillator) or USO (Ultra-Stable Oscillator) reference. The Ka-band frequency can be either coherent with the X-band downlink reference or a hybrid combination of the USO and VCO derived frequencies. The data in this study were chosen such that the Ka-band signal is purely coherent with the X-band signal, that is the downconverter is driven by the same frequency source as the X-band downlink). The ground station used to acquire the data is DSS-13, a 34-meter BWG antenna which incorporates a series of mirrors inside beam waveguide tubes which guide the energy to a subterranean pedestal room, providing a stable environment

  12. Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

    Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

  13. Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

    Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

    2018-05-01

    A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

  14. Challenges to improvement of oral health in the 21st century--the approach of the WHO Global Oral Health Programme

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2004-01-01

    Chronic diseases and injuries are overtaking communicable diseases as the leading health problems in all but a few parts of the world. This rapidly changing global disease pattern is closely linked to changing lifestyles, which include diets rich in sugars, widespread use of tobacco and increased...... consumption of alcohol. These lifestyle factors also significantly impact on oral health, and oral diseases qualify as major public health problems owing to their high prevalence and incidence in all regions of the world. Like all diseases, they affect primarily the disadvantaged and socially marginalised...... of noncommunicable diseases and the 'common risk factor approach' offer new ways of managing the prevention and control of oral diseases. This document outlines the current oral health situation and development trends at global level as well as WHO strategies and approaches for better oral health in the 21 st...

  15. Global policy for improvement of oral health in the 21st century--implications to oral health research of World Health Assembly 2007, World Health Organization

    Petersen, Poul Erik

    2009-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Oral Health Programme has worked hard over the past 5 years to increase the awareness of oral health worldwide as oral health is important component of general health and quality of life. Meanwhile, oral disease is still a major public health problem...... in high income countries and the burden of oral disease is growing in many low- and middle income countries. In the World Oral Health Report 2003, the WHO Global Oral Health Programme formulated the policies and necessary actions to the continuous improvement of oral health. The strategy is that oral...... disease prevention and the promotion of oral health needs to be integrated with chronic disease prevention and general health promotion as the risks to health are linked. The World Health Assembly (WHA) and the Executive Board (EB) are supreme governance bodies of WHO and for the first time in 25 years...

  16. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  17. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  18. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  19. Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

    Liao Shu; Wang Jin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  20. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA’S AND CHINA’S PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS EXPERIENCE

    Vladimir E. Petrovskiy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the comparative analysis of Russian and Chinese participation in the current system of global governance, and in its reform. The author views participation of the respective countries in the system of global governance as part of their foreign policy and foreign policy strategy. He shows common and distinctive features of conceptual and practical approaches towards global governance defined by specific features of Russia’s and China’s history, economic development, political culture and traditions. Based on this comparative analysis, the author speculates on the future trends of participation of the two countries in the global governance system, in the spheres of global economy and international security, and on the future trends of their policy coordination in these respective areas.

  1. Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

    Claar, Danielle C; Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M; Schanze, Julian J; Baum, Julia K

    2018-01-01

    Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

  2. Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

    Danielle C Claar

    Full Text Available Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies. Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies. Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW for any date (since 1982, quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

  3. Drivers of Wetland Conversion: a Global Meta-Analysis

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.; Vermaat, J.E.; Janse, J.

    2013-01-01

    Meta-analysis of case studies has become an important tool for synthesizing case study findings in land change. Meta-analyses of deforestation, urbanization, desertification and change in shifting cultivation systems have been published. This present study adds to this literature, with an analysis

  4. Global metabolite analysis of yeast: evaluation of sample preparation methods

    Villas-Bôas, Silas Granato; Højer-Pedersen, Jesper; Åkesson, Mats Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    Sample preparation is considered one of the limiting steps in microbial metabolome analysis. Eukaryotes and prokaryotes behave very differently during the several steps of classical sample preparation methods for analysis of metabolites. Even within the eukaryote kingdom there is a vast diversity...

  5. Global duricrust on Mars - Analysis of remote-sensing data

    Jakosky, B. M.; Christensen, P. R.

    1986-01-01

    A study is conducted of the infrared thermal emission, radio thermal emission, and radar reflection data sets with the objective to obtain a simple and self-consistent model for the Mars surface. The results are compared with in situ observations at the Viking Lander sites. Attention is given to thermal inertia values, the abundance of surface rocks, radar/thermal correlations, diurnal temperature deviations, and radio emission data. It is suggested that all of the global remote-sensing data sets considered can be reconciled on the basis of variations in the degree of formation of a case-hardened crust or duricrust. On the other hand, no other model which has been proposed in conjunction with any individual data set can satisfy all of the constraints discussed.

  6. Herbal medicine research and global health: an ethical analysis.

    Tilburt, Jon C; Kaptchuk, Ted J

    2008-08-01

    Governments, international agencies and corporations are increasingly investing in traditional herbal medicine research. Yet little literature addresses ethical challenges in this research. In this paper, we apply concepts in a comprehensive ethical framework for clinical research to international traditional herbal medicine research. We examine in detail three key, underappreciated dimensions of the ethical framework in which particularly difficult questions arise for international herbal medicine research: social value, scientific validity and favourable risk-benefit ratio. Significant challenges exist in determining shared concepts of social value, scientific validity and favourable risk-benefit ratio across international research collaborations. However, we argue that collaborative partnership, including democratic deliberation, offers the context and process by which many of the ethical challenges in international herbal medicine research can, and should be, resolved. By "cross-training" investigators, and investing in safety-monitoring infrastructure, the issues identified by this comprehensive framework can promote ethically sound international herbal medicine research that contributes to global health.

  7. Performance analysis of tracked panel according to predicted global radiation

    Chang, T.P.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the performance of a south facing single-axis tracked panel was analyzed according to global radiation predicted by empirical model. Mathematic expressions appropriate for single-axis tracking system were derived to calculate the radiation on it. Instantaneous increments of solar energy collected by the tracked panel relative to fixed panel are illustrated. The validity of the empirical model to Taiwan area will also be examined with the actual irradiation data observed in Taipei. The results are summarized as follows: the gains made by the tracked panel relative to a fixed panel are between 20.0% and 33.9% for four specified days of year, between 20.9% and 33.2% for the four seasons and 27.6% over the entire year. For latitudes below 65 deg., the yearly optimal tilt angle of a fixed panel is close to 0.8 times latitude, the irradiation ratio of the tracked panel to the fixed panel is about 1.3, which are smaller than the corresponding values calculated from extraterrestrial radiation, suggesting us that the installation angle should be adjusted toward a flatter angle and that the gain of the tracked panel will reduce while it works in cloudy climate or in air pollution environment. Although the captured radiation increases with the maximal rotation angle of panel, but the benefit on the global radiation case is still not so good as that on extraterrestrial radiation case. The irradiation data observed is much less than the data predicted by the empirical model, however the trend of fitting curve to the observed data is somewhat in agreement with that to the predicted one; the yearly gain is 14.3% when a tracked panel is employed throughout the year.

  8. Integration and global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data for studying macromolecular interactions.

    Brautigam, Chad A; Zhao, Huaying; Vargas, Carolyn; Keller, Sandro; Schuck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a powerful and widely used method to measure the energetics of macromolecular interactions by recording a thermogram of differential heating power during a titration. However, traditional ITC analysis is limited by stochastic thermogram noise and by the limited information content of a single titration experiment. Here we present a protocol for bias-free thermogram integration based on automated shape analysis of the injection peaks, followed by combination of isotherms from different calorimetric titration experiments into a global analysis, statistical analysis of binding parameters and graphical presentation of the results. This is performed using the integrated public-domain software packages NITPIC, SEDPHAT and GUSSI. The recently developed low-noise thermogram integration approach and global analysis allow for more precise parameter estimates and more reliable quantification of multisite and multicomponent cooperative and competitive interactions. Titration experiments typically take 1-2.5 h each, and global analysis usually takes 10-20 min.

  9. The Century of Education. CEE DP 109

    Morrisson, Christian; Murtin, Fabrice

    2009-01-01

    Global economic transformations have never been as dramatic as in the twentieth century. Most countries have experienced radical changes in the standards of income per capita, technology, fertility, mortality, income inequality and the extent of democracy in the course of the past century. It is the goal of many disciplines--economics, history,…

  10. Morphing into a 21st Century Trainer.

    Mager, R. F.

    1996-01-01

    Forces that will affect trainers into the next century include rapid change, information overload, globalization, downsizing, empowerment, and remote worksites. Key characteristics of a 21st-century trainer include performance orientation, technical skills, social skills, self-employability, bilingualism, and international competence. (JOW)

  11. Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century

    Lefebvre, W.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2008-01-15

    Using the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the projected regional distribution of sea ice for the twenty-first century has been investigated. Averaged over all those model simulations, the current climate is reasonably well reproduced. However, this averaging procedure hides the errors from individual models. Over the twentieth century, the multimodel average simulates a larger sea-ice concentration decrease around the Antarctic Peninsula compared to other regions, which is in qualitative agreement with observations. This is likely related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index over the twentieth century, in both observations and in the multimodel average. Despite the simulated positive future trend in SAM, such a regional feature around the Antarctic Peninsula is absent in the projected sea-ice change for the end of the twenty-first century. The maximum decrease is indeed located over the central Weddell Sea and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. In most models, changes in the oceanic currents could play a role in the regional distribution of the sea ice, especially in the Ross Sea, where stronger southward currents could be responsible for a smaller sea-ice decrease during the twenty-first century. Finally, changes in the mixed layer depth can be found in some models, inducing locally strong changes in the sea-ice concentration. (orig.)

  12. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  13. Extreme events in total ozone: Spatio-temporal analysis from local to global scale

    Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Ribatet, Mathieu; di Rocco, Stefania; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Peter, Thomas; Davison, Anthony C.

    2010-05-01

    Recently tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have been applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately (Rieder et al., 2010a,b). A case study the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the total ozone record. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading in ozone depleting substances led to a continuous modification of column ozone in the northern hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). It is shown that application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such fingerprints than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. Especially, the extremal analysis shows the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone (Rieder et al., 2010b). Overall the extremes concept provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values. Findings described above could be proven also for the total ozone records of 5 other long-term series (Belsk, Hohenpeissenberg, Hradec Kralove, Potsdam, Uccle) showing that strong influence of atmospheric

  14. Global and local - air pollution abatement in the 21st century. Seminar No. 14 of Zentrale Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern; Global und Lokal - Klimaschutz fuer das 21. Jahrhundert. Seminarband der Zentralen Informationsstelle Umweltberatung Bayern. Bd. 14

    Koller, U.; Behling, G.; Rauh, K.; Haury, H.J. (comps.)

    1999-08-01

    Scientists of Germany's major climate research institutes and an expert of the world climate research programme presented current information on climate trends. They informed on the results of international efforts to prevent global warming after the Buenos Aires conference and presented global climate scenarios of the future. Further issues were local air pollution abatement (energy management, thermal insulation), communal air pollution abatement concepts, and state funding in Bavaria and elsewhere. [German] Wissenschaftler aus den bedeutendsten Instituten deutscher Klimaforschung sowie ein Vertreter des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms stellten aktuelle Erkenntnisse zur Entwicklung unseres Klimas vor. Sie informierten ueber Ergebnisse internationaler Klimaschutzpolitik nach der Klimakonferenz in Buenos Aires und praesentierten Szenarien fuer das globale Klima der Zukunft. Sie widmeten sich ausserdem Fragen des lokalen Klimaschutzes unter den Aspekten Energiemanagement, Waermeschutz und diskutierten ueber kommunale Klimaschutzkonzepte sowie Foerdermoeglichkeiten in und ausserhalb Bayerns. (orig.)

  15. An Analysis Of American Social Condition In THE Middle Of 20Th Century Viewed In Harper Lee’s Novel To Kill A Mockingbird

    Saragih, Dix Wendy

    2010-01-01

    Skripsi ini berjudul The Analysis of American Social Condition in the Middle of Twentieth Century Viewed in Harper Lee’s Novel To Kill A Mockingbird. Yaitu suatu analisis mengenai kondisi sosial masyarakat di Amerika Serikat pada pertengahan abad 20 yang terlihat dalam novel To Kill A Mockingbird karya dari Harper Lee. Dalam analisis ini, penulis menggunakan pendekatan historis mengenai sejarah Amerika pada pertengahan abad keduapuluh. Adapun metode yang digunakan adalah metode deskriptif ...

  16. Accelerator mass spectrometry: ultrasensitive analysis of global science

    Tuniz, C.; Bird, J.B.; Fink, D.; Herzog, G.F.

    1998-01-01

    Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), an innovative analytical technique, measures rare atoms at unprecedented levels of sensitivity, revolutionizing the science of radiocarbon dating and accessing new environmental tracers and chronometers. AMS can study extraterrestrial materials, the earth sciences, the future of the global environment, and the history of mankind. The Shroud of Turin, meteorites from Mars, the crown of Charlemagne, and ancient air trapped in Antarctic ice indicate some of the samples on which AMS has been applied. This book has compiled the diverse set of scientific literature into a single volume, suitable as a text or resource on the major AMS-related outcomes, issues, and methods. It explains how scientists and researchers succeeded in counting Carbon-14 atoms at an extraordinary level, examines the impact of AMS on the branches of scientific technology and historical research, provides an understanding of the chronology and significance of past and present environmental changes, details the advances in AMS equipment, technology, and methods as well as the expansion of AMS research

  17. Economic-Social Analysis of Global Illicit Drug Trade

    Salahedin Ghaderi

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Political unstability, less respect to the role of law, low life standards and suitable conditions for poppy/coca cultivation, have all affected on growing illicit drug international trafficking. Colombia is the center for global cocaine industry. Colombians had to use ship in the Carribean but now they pass Mexico where the costs are half of using ship. Mexican traffickers permit that the domestic poppy plants turned into herion, Colombian cocaine transited to USA and methamephtamine manufactured and distributed. Golden triangle in southeast Asia is one of the major regions for opium poppy cultivation. This region has seen many guerrilla warfare for selling illicit drugs especially in Myanmar. Manufactured hroin is usually dealt in Thailand. Golden Crescent region in southwest Asia has a suitable climate for opium poppy cultivation which provides necessay money for purchasing needed weapons by rival groups in northwestern border provinces of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nigeria is one of the main centers for transporting heroin from Golden Crescent and cocaine from Brazil. Dominics run cocaine trade in New York and New England and Afro-American criminal organizations conduct heroin trading in big cities such as New york, Detroit, Chicago, Phila Delphia and Washington. Street trading of illicit drugs is mainly done by cultural or commanding gangs. Illicit drug traffickers apply many methods to laundering their profits including money exchange, smurfs, electronic transferring, and faced firms (the firms that are only registered.

  18. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  19. Multisteps Global Kinetic Analysis of MSW Slow Pyrolysis

    Dwi Aries Himawanto

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research is to find relationships between single components slow pyrolysis characteristics and mixed component slow pyrolysis characteristics of segregated municipal solid wastes (MSW. The material of this research consists of organic wastes (bamboo wastes and banana leaves wastes and inorganic wastes (styrofoam wastes and snack wrapping wastes. The materials which used to study were the unprosessing waste. The samples were collected, dried and crushed until passing 20 mesh shieves then characterized in self manufactured macro balance. The thermogravimetry analyses were done to find the MSW slow pyrolysis characteristics. The 20 gram sample was placed in the furnace whose temperature is increased with 10 0C/min heating rate until reached 400 0 final temperature and held for 30 minutes before the sample is cooled into room temperature. One hundred ml/min nitrogen introduced from the bottom of furnace as a swept gas. The results of the research show that the global kinetic method could be used to predict the MSW single component activation energy but it should be modified to calculate the mixed sample activation energy . The predictive activation energy values which calculated based on weighed sum of single component have 18.5 % deviations if compared with experimental result.

  20. Global Analysis of Ecosystem Evapotranspiration Response to Precipitation Deficits

    He, Bin; Wang, Haiyan; Guo, Lanlan; Liu, Junjie

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) due to precipitation deficits (PD) can relieve or aggravate soil moisture shortages, thus impacting drought severity. Previous findings have conflicted with regard to response of ET to PD. The present study relies on a global land ET synthesis data set (ETsyn) and observations from eddy-covariance towers (ETobs) to thoroughly examine the sensitivity of ET to PD, which is represented by the standardized precipitation index. There was a contrast in the response to PD between arid and humid ecosystems. ETsyn of arid ecosystems was typically reduced promptly in response to a reduction of precipitation, while ETsyn in humid ecosystems experienced a two-staged change: First, there was an enhancement, and then a reduction associated with persisting PD. Compared with ETsyn, ETobs suggests the occurrence of a more significant ET transition in response to PD. In arid ecosystems, ET typically negatively correlated with low PD, but this was limited by a large PD. Findings from this study are crucial for understanding the role of ET in drought evolution.

  1. Global classification of human facial healthy skin using PLS discriminant analysis and clustering analysis.

    Guinot, C; Latreille, J; Tenenhaus, M; Malvy, D J

    2001-04-01

    Today's classifications of healthy skin are predominantly based on a very limited number of skin characteristics, such as skin oiliness or susceptibility to sun exposure. The aim of the present analysis was to set up a global classification of healthy facial skin, using mathematical models. This classification is based on clinical, biophysical skin characteristics and self-reported information related to the skin, as well as the results of a theoretical skin classification assessed separately for the frontal and the malar zones of the face. In order to maximize the predictive power of the models with a minimum of variables, the Partial Least Square (PLS) discriminant analysis method was used. The resulting PLS components were subjected to clustering analyses to identify the plausible number of clusters and to group the individuals according to their proximities. Using this approach, four PLS components could be constructed and six clusters were found relevant. So, from the 36 hypothetical combinations of the theoretical skin types classification, we tended to a strengthened six classes proposal. Our data suggest that the association of the PLS discriminant analysis and the clustering methods leads to a valid and simple way to classify healthy human skin and represents a potentially useful tool for cosmetic and dermatological research.

  2. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  3. Waterpipe tobacco smoking legislation and policy enactment: a global analysis.

    Jawad, Mohammed; El Kadi, Lama; Mugharbil, Sanaa; Nakkash, Rima

    2015-03-01

    (1) To review how current global tobacco control policies address regulation of waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS). (2) To identify features associated with enactment and enforcement of WTS legislation. (1) Legislations compiled by Tobacco Control Laws (www.tobaccocontrollaws.org). (2) Weekly news articles by 'Google Alerts' (www.google.com/alerts) from July 2013 to August 2014. (1) Countries containing legislative reviews, written by legal experts, were included. Countries prohibiting tobacco sales were excluded. (2) News articles discussing aspects of the WHO FCTC were included. News articles related to electronic-waterpipe, crime, smuggling, opinion pieces or brief mentions of WTS were excluded. (1) Two reviewers independently abstracted the definition of "tobacco product" and/or "smoking". Four tobacco control domains (smokefree law, misleading descriptors, health warning labels and advertising/promotion/sponsorship) were assigned one of four categories based on the degree to which WTS had specific legislation. (2) Two investigators independently assigned at least one theme and associated subtheme to each news article. (1) Reviewed legislations of 62 countries showed that most do not address WTS regulation but instead rely on generic tobacco/smoking definitions to cover all tobacco products. Where WTS was specifically addressed, no additional legislative guidance accounted for the unique way it is smoked, except for in one country specifying health warnings on waterpipe apparatuses (2) News articles mainly reported on noncompliance with public smoking bans, especially in India, Pakistan and the UK. A regulatory framework evaluated for effectiveness and tailored for the specificities of WTS needs to be developed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  4. Analysis of a global database containing tritium in precipitation

    Buckley, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Rabun, R. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States); Heath, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)

    2016-02-17

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) directed the collection of tritium in water samples from the mid-1950s to 2009. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data examined the airborne movement of isotope releases to the environment, with an objective of collecting spatial data on the isotope content of precipitation across the globe. The initial motivation was to monitor atmospheric thermonuclear test fallout through tritium, deuterium, and oxygen isotope concentrations, but after the 1970s the focus changed to being an observation network of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope data for hydrologic studies. The GNIP database provides a wealth of tritium data collections over a long period of time. The work performed here primarily examined data features in the past 30 years (after much of the effects of above-ground nuclear testing in the late 1950s to early 1960s decayed away), revealing potentially unknown tritium sources. The available data at GNIP were reorganized to allow for evaluation of trends in the data both temporally and spatially. Several interesting cases were revealed, including relatively high measured concentrations in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, Russia, Norway, as well as an increase in background concentration at a collector in South Korea after 2004. Recent data from stations in the southeastern United States nearest to the Savannah River Site do not indicate any high values. Meteorological impacts have not been considered in this study. Further research to assess the likely source location of interesting cases using transport simulations and/or literature searches is warranted.

  5. Coordinating Communities and Building Governance in the Development of Schematic and Semantic Standards: the Key to Solving Global Earth and Space Science Challenges in the 21st Century.

    Wyborn, L. A.

    2007-12-01

    The Information Age in Science is being driven partly by the data deluge as exponentially growing volumes of data are being generated by research. Such large volumes of data cannot be effectively processed by humans and efficient and timely processing by computers requires development of specific machine readable formats. Further, as key challenges in earth and space sciences, such as climate change, hazard prediction and sustainable development resources require a cross disciplinary approach, data from various domains will need to be integrated from globally distributed sources also via machine to machine formats. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the existing standards can be very domain specific and most existing data transfer formats require human intervention. Where groups from different communities do try combine data across the domain/discipline boundaries much time is spent reformatting and reorganizing the data and it is conservatively estimated that this can take 80% of a project's time and resources. Four different types of standards are required for machine to machine interaction: systems, syntactic, schematic and semantic. Standards at the systems (WMS, WFS, etc) and at the syntactic level (GML, Observation and Measurement, SensorML) are being developed through international standards bodies such as ISO, OGC, W3C, IEEE etc. In contrast standards at the schematic level (e.g., GeoSciML, LandslidesML, WaterML, QuakeML) and at the semantic level (ie ontologies and vocabularies) are currently developing rapidly, in a very uncoordinated way and with little governance. As the size of the community that can machine read each others data depends on the size of the community that has developed the schematic or semantic standards, it is essential that to achieve global integration of earth and space science data, the required standards need to be developed through international collaboration using accepted standard proceedures. Once developed the

  6. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Ginting, Victor

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  7. Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

    Jiang, Lijian

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

  8. Visualization and analysis of eddies in a global ocean simulation

    Williams, Sean J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hecht, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Petersen, Mark [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Strelitz, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maltrud, Mathew E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlawitschka, Mario [UC DAVIS; Hamann, Bernd [UC DAVIS

    2010-10-15

    Eddies at a scale of approximately one hundred kilometers have been shown to be surprisingly important to understanding large-scale transport of heat and nutrients in the ocean. Due to difficulties in observing the ocean directly, the behavior of eddies below the surface is not very well understood. To fill this gap, we employ a high-resolution simulation of the ocean developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Using large-scale parallel visualization and analysis tools, we produce three-dimensional images of ocean eddies, and also generate a census of eddy distribution and shape averaged over multiple simulation time steps, resulting in a world map of eddy characteristics. As expected from observational studies, our census reveals a higher concentration of eddies at the mid-latitudes than the equator. Our analysis further shows that mid-latitude eddies are thicker, within a range of 1000-2000m, while equatorial eddies are less than 100m thick.

  9. Analysis of the behavior of students in the global network

    Buha Vesna V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this research is to analyze the way in which students use content on the Internet. The emphasis is on the educational and informational needs of students in the selected statistical sample. Internet sites are structured according to the preferences of students. In this sense, have been explicitly included in the analysis of educational content, information, and entertainment. After a field study on a sample of 238 students conducted a quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment derived. Data were processed in SPSS software. The results showed how students estimate the total amount of time you spend on the Internet. Conclusions also apply to the assessment of the same time, as a possible limiting factors in terms of contacts, which have to do with real social environment. Data evaluation is based on the need to analyze the habits and behavior of students on the Internet as well as their organization of time in relation to the Work-life balance.

  10. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Sujit Das, Josh Warren, Devin West, Susan M. Schexnayder

    2016-05-01

    This analysis identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where resources and investments can help advance the clean energy economy. The report focuses on four application areas — wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels — that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components.

  11. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

    Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

    2009-10-01

    Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

  12. Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel

    Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.

  13. Gender inequality and HIV transmission: a global analysis.

    Richardson, Eugene T; Collins, Sean E; Kung, Tiffany; Jones, James H; Hoan Tram, Khai; Boggiano, Victoria L; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Zolopa, Andrew R

    2014-01-01

    The HIV pandemic disproportionately impacts young women. Worldwide, young women aged 15-24 are infected with HIV at rates twice that of young men, and young women alone account for nearly a quarter of all new HIV infections. The incommensurate HIV incidence in young - often poor - women underscores how social and economic inequalities shape the HIV epidemic. Confluent social forces, including political and gender violence, poverty, racism, and sexism impede equal access to therapies and effective care, but most of all constrain the agency of women. HIV prevalence data was compiled from the 2010 UNAIDS Global Report. Gender inequality was assessed using the 2011 United Nations Human Development Report Gender Inequality Index (GII). Logistic regression models were created with predominant mode of transmission (heterosexual vs. MSM/IDU) as the dependent variable and GII, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Democracy Index, male circumcision rate, log gross national income (GNI) per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP), and region as independent variables. There is a significant correlation between having a predominantly heterosexual epidemic and high gender inequality across all models. There is not a significant association between whether a country is predominantly Muslim, has a high/low GNI at PPP, has a high/low circumcision rate, and its primary mode of transmission. In addition, there are only three countries that have had a generalized epidemic in the past but no longer have one: Cambodia, Honduras, and Eritrea. GII data are available only for Cambodia and Honduras, and these countries showed a 37 and 34% improvement, respectively, in their Gender Inequality Indices between 1995 and 2011. During the same period, both countries reduced their HIV prevalence below the 1% threshold of a generalized epidemic. This represents limited but compelling evidence that improvements in gender inequality can lead to the abatement of generalized epidemics. Gender inequality is an

  14. Life history of the Harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis; a global meta-analysis

    Raak-van den Berg, C.L.; Hemerik, A.; Werf, van der W.; Jong, de P.W.; Lenteren, van J.C.

    2017-01-01

    Data collected en used for a meta analysis on life history data of H. axyridis. And the resulting 20 best models for each life history characteristic. Published in the paper: Life history of the Harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis; a global meta-analysis.

  15. Global transcriptome analysis of developing chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) seeds.

    Pradhan, Seema; Bandhiwal, Nitesh; Shah, Niraj; Kant, Chandra; Gaur, Rashmi; Bhatia, Sabhyata

    2014-01-01

    Understanding developmental processes, especially in non-model crop plants, is extremely important in order to unravel unique mechanisms regulating development. Chickpea (C. arietinum L.) seeds are especially valued for their high carbohydrate and protein content. Therefore, in order to elucidate the mechanisms underlying seed development in chickpea, deep sequencing of transcriptomes from four developmental stages was undertaken. In this study, next generation sequencing platform was utilized to sequence the transcriptome of four distinct stages of seed development in chickpea. About 1.3 million reads were generated which were assembled into 51,099 unigenes by merging the de novo and reference assemblies. Functional annotation of the unigenes was carried out using the Uniprot, COG and KEGG databases. RPKM based digital expression analysis revealed specific gene activities at different stages of development which was validated using Real time PCR analysis. More than 90% of the unigenes were found to be expressed in at least one of the four seed tissues. DEGseq was used to determine differentially expressing genes which revealed that only 6.75% of the unigenes were differentially expressed at various stages. Homology based comparison revealed 17.5% of the unigenes to be putatively seed specific. Transcription factors were predicted based on HMM profiles built using TF sequences from five legume plants and analyzed for their differential expression during progression of seed development. Expression analysis of genes involved in biosynthesis of important secondary metabolites suggested that chickpea seeds can serve as a good source of antioxidants. Since transcriptomes are a valuable source of molecular markers like simple sequence repeats (SSRs), about 12,000 SSRs were mined in chickpea seed transcriptome and few of them were validated. In conclusion, this study will serve as a valuable resource for improved chickpea breeding.

  16. Global transcriptome analysis of developing chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. seeds

    Seema ePradhan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding developmental processes, especially in non-model crop plants, is extremely important in order to unravel unique mechanisms regulating development. Chickpea (C. arietinum L. seeds are especially valued for their high carbohydrate and protein content. Therefore, in order to elucidate the mechanisms underlying seed development in chickpea, deep sequencing of transcriptomes from four developmental stages was undertaken. In this study, next generation sequencing platform was utilised to sequence the transcriptome of four distinct stages of seed development in chickpea. About 1.3 million reads were generated which were assembled into 51,099 unigenes by merging the de novo and reference assemblies. Functional annotation of the unigenes was carried out using the Uniprot, COG and KEGG databases. RPKM based digital expression analysis revealed specific gene activities at different stages of development which was validated using Real time PCR analysis. More than 90% of the unigenes were found to be expressed in at least one of the four seed tissues. DEGseq was used to determine differentially expressing genes which revealed that only 6.75% of the unigenes were differentially expressed at various stages. Homology based comparison revealed 17.5% of the unigenes to be putatively seed specific. Transcription factors were predicted based on HMM profiles built using TF sequences from five legume plants and analysed for their differential expression during progression of seed development. Expression analysis of genes involved in biosynthesis of important secondary metabolites suggested that chickpea seeds can serve as a good source of antioxidants. Since transcriptomes are a valuable source of molecular markers like simple sequence repeats (SSRs, about 12,000 SSRs were mined in chickpea seed transcriptome and few of them were validated. In conclusion, this study will serve as a valuable resource for improved chickpea breeding.

  17. The use of 'macro' legal analysis in the development of global environmental governance

    Turner, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    This talk will discuss the challenges that are faced by lawyers in assessing the constituent elements of global environmental governance. It takes into account the different and sometimes disparate approaches that have been taken to the subject and the different interpretations of the term ‘global environmental governance’ itself. It suggests that in the face of such challenges an approach which includes ‘macro’ legal analysis should be developed to ensure that all relevant factors are includ...

  18. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A; Huffstot, John S; Mata, Maria Eugénia

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

  19. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. PMID:29408909

  20. The southern gate of the walled city of León, Spain (I-XII centuries. Stratigraphic and interpretive analysis of a new constructive evidence

    Ángel Morillo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2000 took place the discovery of a large wall ashlar, actually integrated into the basement of a shop in the historic town of León (Spain. The typology of his constructive system and its topographic position into the plan of the town, allow us to identify it as the front of one of the flanking towers of the southern gate (porta praetoria of the roman legionary fortress of legio VII gemina. This camp was built at the end of the first century-early second century AD. The wall has many architectural reforms and adjustments. Their analysis testifies its evolution between Early Roman Empire and the twelfth and thirteenth centuries AD. The analysis of the mural stratigraphy presented here show the relative chronologies of different masonry and constructive activities determining the diachronic development of the construction. We can also clarify historical aspects about the south wall of León. The data obtained have been compared with three-dimensional topographic space in which are found, illustrating on the evolution of the urban landscape.

  1. Global Proteome Analysis of the NCI-60 Cell Line Panel

    Amin Moghaddas Gholami

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The NCI-60 cell line collection is a very widely used panel for the study of cellular mechanisms of cancer in general and in vitro drug action in particular. It is a model system for the tissue types and genetic diversity of human cancers and has been extensively molecularly characterized. Here, we present a quantitative proteome and kinome profile of the NCI-60 panel covering, in total, 10,350 proteins (including 375 protein kinases and including a core cancer proteome of 5,578 proteins that were consistently quantified across all tissue types. Bioinformatic analysis revealed strong cell line clusters according to tissue type and disclosed hundreds of differentially regulated proteins representing potential biomarkers for numerous tumor properties. Integration with public transcriptome data showed considerable similarity between mRNA and protein expression. Modeling of proteome and drug-response profiles for 108 FDA-approved drugs identified known and potential protein markers for drug sensitivity and resistance. To enable community access to this unique resource, we incorporated it into a public database for comparative and integrative analysis (http://wzw.tum.de/proteomics/nci60.

  2. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  3. AN ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGIES OF RURAL FOUNDRIES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURY IN THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC

    Lisa Baillargeon

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The business model and strategic position of Quebec's rural foundries at the beginning of the 20th century is virtually unknown. Inferences have been made based on pictorial and oral data sources. This data reveals that successful rural foundries were, in essence, confined to producing and selling agricultural tools to local farmers on an as-needed basis, because large urban foundries were already mass-producing domestic and industrial objects. In contrast, use of detailed accounting records and advertising publications of three rural foundries over the 1900 to 1914 period provides a clearer picture of the production and of the clientele of those rural foundries. Analysis of these sources suggests that the strategic business model of rural foundries was much more elaborate than the existing literature posits. Rural owner-managers of the early 20th century were sophisticated strategists, marketers, and operators.

  4. The glass furnace of the 17th Century of Sa Gerreria (Palma, Mallorca): Historical context and preliminary analysis of the materials

    Capella Galmes, M. A.; Albero Santacreu, D.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper the materials of the glass furnace of Sa Gerreria (Palma) dated in the second half of the 17th Century A.D. are analysed. On the one hand, we discuss the available information regarding this glass workshop as well as the raw material management strategies made during the studied period. On the other hand, we focus on the materials produced by this workshop and we carry out a preliminary archaeometrical analysis of the glass lumps, frits and slags recovered as well as some glass pieces by means of scanning electron microscope and X-ray dispersive energy. The final aim is to characterise the chemical composition and the properties of the raw materials used in this workshop as well as to approach some of the technical processes put in practice by the glass makers who inhabited Mallorca during the 17th Century. (Author)

  5. Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

  6. Global gene expression analysis for evaluation and design of biomaterials

    Nobutaka Hanagata, Taro Takemura and Takashi Minowa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive gene expression analysis using DNA microarrays has become a widespread technique in molecular biological research. In the biomaterials field, it is used to evaluate the biocompatibility or cellular toxicity of metals, polymers and ceramics. Studies in this field have extracted differentially expressed genes in the context of differences in cellular responses among multiple materials. Based on these genes, the effects of materials on cells at the molecular level have been examined. Expression data ranging from several to tens of thousands of genes can be obtained from DNA microarrays. For this reason, several tens or hundreds of differentially expressed genes are often present in different materials. In this review, we outline the principles of DNA microarrays, and provide an introduction to methods of extracting information which is useful for evaluating and designing biomaterials from comprehensive gene expression data.

  7. Global Carbon Fiber Composites Supply Chain Competitiveness Analysis

    Das, Sujit [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Warren, Josh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); West, Devin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Schexnayder, Susan M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-05-01

    This study identifies key opportunities in the carbon fiber supply chain where the United States Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy resources and investments can help the United States achieve or maintain a competitive advantage. The report focuses on four application areas--wind energy, aerospace, automotive, and pressure vessels--that top the list of industries using carbon fiber and carbon fiber reinforced polymers and are also particularly relevant to EERE's mission. For each of the four application areas, the report addresses the supply and demand trends within that sector, supply chain, and costs of carbon fiber and components, all contributing to a competitiveness assessment that addresses the United States' role in future industry growth. This report was prepared by researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee for the Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center.

  8. Global gene expression analysis for evaluation and design of biomaterials

    Hanagata, Nobutaka; Takemura, Taro; Minowa, Takashi

    2010-01-01

    Comprehensive gene expression analysis using DNA microarrays has become a widespread technique in molecular biological research. In the biomaterials field, it is used to evaluate the biocompatibility or cellular toxicity of metals, polymers and ceramics. Studies in this field have extracted differentially expressed genes in the context of differences in cellular responses among multiple materials. Based on these genes, the effects of materials on cells at the molecular level have been examined. Expression data ranging from several to tens of thousands of genes can be obtained from DNA microarrays. For this reason, several tens or hundreds of differentially expressed genes are often present in different materials. In this review, we outline the principles of DNA microarrays, and provide an introduction to methods of extracting information which is useful for evaluating and designing biomaterials from comprehensive gene expression data. (topical review)

  9. Global analysis of the sporulation pathway of Clostridium difficile.

    Fimlaid, Kelly A; Bond, Jeffrey P; Schutz, Kristin C; Putnam, Emily E; Leung, Jacqueline M; Lawley, Trevor D; Shen, Aimee

    2013-01-01

    The Gram-positive, spore-forming pathogen Clostridium difficile is the leading definable cause of healthcare-associated diarrhea worldwide. C. difficile infections are difficult to treat because of their frequent recurrence, which can cause life-threatening complications such as pseudomembranous colitis. The spores of C. difficile are responsible for these high rates of recurrence, since they are the major transmissive form of the organism and resistant to antibiotics and many disinfectants. Despite the importance of spores to the pathogenesis of C. difficile, little is known about their composition or formation. Based on studies in Bacillus subtilis and other Clostridium spp., the sigma factors σ(F), σ(E), σ(G), and σ(K) are predicted to control the transcription of genes required for sporulation, although their specific functions vary depending on the organism. In order to determine the roles of σ(F), σ(E), σ(G), and σ(K) in regulating C. difficile sporulation, we generated loss-of-function mutations in genes encoding these sporulation sigma factors and performed RNA-Sequencing to identify specific sigma factor-dependent genes. This analysis identified 224 genes whose expression was collectively activated by sporulation sigma factors: 183 were σ(F)-dependent, 169 were σ(E)-dependent, 34 were σ(G)-dependent, and 31 were σ(K)-dependent. In contrast with B. subtilis, C. difficile σ(E) was dispensable for σ(G) activation, σ(G) was dispensable for σ(K) activation, and σ(F) was required for post-translationally activating σ(G). Collectively, these results provide the first genome-wide transcriptional analysis of genes induced by specific sporulation sigma factors in the Clostridia and highlight that diverse mechanisms regulate sporulation sigma factor activity in the Firmicutes.

  10. Statistical Analysis of Development Trends in Global Renewable Energy

    Marina D. Simonova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the economic and statistical analysis of industries associated with the use of renewable energy sources in several countries. The dynamic development and implementation of technologies based on renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES is the defining trend of world energy development. The uneven distribution of hydrocarbon reserves, increasing demand of developing countries and environmental risks associated with the production and consumption of fossil resources has led to an increasing interest of many states to this field. Creating low-carbon economies involves the implementation of plans to increase the proportion of clean energy through renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The priority of this sector is a characteristic feature of modern development of developed (USA, EU, Japan and emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, etc., as evidenced by the inclusion of the development of this segment in the state energy strategies and the revision of existing approaches to energy security. The analysis of the use of renewable energy, its contribution to value added of countries-producers is of a particular interest. Over the last decade, the share of energy produced from renewable sources in the energy balances of the world's largest economies increased significantly. Every year the number of power generating capacity based on renewable energy is growing, especially, this trend is apparent in China, USA and European Union countries. There is a significant increase in direct investment in renewable energy. The total investment over the past ten years increased by 5.6 times. The most rapidly developing kinds are solar energy and wind power.

  11. Inequalities in global health inequalities research: A 50-year bibliometric analysis (1966-2015)

    Pericàs, Juan M.; Benach, Joan

    2018-01-01

    Background Increasing evidence shows that health inequalities exist between and within countries, and emphasis has been placed on strengthening the production and use of the global health inequalities research, so as to improve capacities to act. Yet, a comprehensive overview of this evidence base is still needed, to determine what is known about the global and historical scientific production on health inequalities to date, how is it distributed in terms of country income groups and world regions, how has it changed over time, and what international collaboration dynamics exist. Methods A comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the global scientific production on health inequalities, from 1966 to 2015, was conducted using Scopus database. The historical and global evolution of the study of health inequalities was considered, and through joinpoint regression analysis and visualisation network maps, the preceding questions were examined. Findings 159 countries (via authorship affiliation) contributed to this scientific production, three times as many countries than previously found. Scientific output on health inequalities has exponentially grown over the last five decades, with several marked shift points, and a visible country-income group affiliation gradient in the initiation and consistent publication frequency. Higher income countries, especially Anglo-Saxon and European countries, disproportionately dominate first and co-authorship, and are at the core of the global collaborative research networks, with the Global South on the periphery. However, several country anomalies exist that suggest that the causes of these research inequalities, and potential underlying dependencies, run deeper than simply differences in country income and language. Conclusions Whilst the global evidence base has expanded, Global North-South research gaps exist, persist and, in some cases, are widening. Greater understanding of the structural determinants of these research

  12. Strategies for assessing proton linkage to bimolecular interactions by global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data

    Coussens, Nathan P.; Schuck, Peter; Zhao, Huaying

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We demonstrate the usefulness of global analysis of ITC data for proton-linked binding study. ► Various experimental strategies are evaluated for their information content. ► Data at multiple temperatures might improve the precision of binding parameters. ► Methods for detailed error analysis of parameter uncertainties are discussed. ► By global modeling, an uncertainty in molecular concentrations can be accounted for. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a traditional and powerful method for studying the linkage of ligand binding to proton uptake or release. The theoretical framework has been developed for more than two decades and numerous applications have appeared. In the current work, we explored strategic aspects of experimental design. To this end, we simulated families of ITC data sets that embed different strategies with regard to the number of experiments, range of experimental pH, buffer ionization enthalpy, and temperature. We then re-analyzed the families of data sets in the context of global analysis, employing a proton linkage binding model implemented in the global data analysis platform SEDPHAT, and examined the information content of all data sets by a detailed statistical error analysis of the parameter estimates. In particular, we studied the impact of different assumptions about the knowledge of the exact concentrations of the components, which in practice presents an experimental limitation for many systems. For example, the uncertainty in concentration may reflect imperfectly known extinction coefficients and stock concentrations or may account for different extents of partial inactivation when working with proteins at different pH values. Our results show that the global analysis can yield reliable estimates of the thermodynamic parameters for intrinsic binding and protonation, and that in the context of the global analysis the exact molecular component concentrations may not be required. Additionally

  13. The future of the global environment. A model-based analysis supporting UNEP's first global environment outlook

    Bakkes, J.; Van Woerden, J.; Alcamo, J.; Berk, M.; Bol, P.; Van den Born, G.J.; Ten Brink, B.; Hettelingh, J.P.; Niessen, L.; Langeweg, F.; Swart, R.

    1997-01-01

    Integrated assessments in support of environmental policy have been applied to a number of countries and regions, and to international negotiations. UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook (GEO-1) can be seen as a step towards making the tool of integrated assessment more widely available as a means for focusing action. This technical report documents RIVM's contribution to the GEO-1 report, focusing on the subject 'looking ahead'. It is illustrated that a 'what if' analysis helps to look beyond the delays in environmental and resource processes. This report illustrates that integrated assessment and modelling techniques can be excellent tools for environment and development policy-setting. The methodology, however, will need to be further developed and adapted to the realities and expectations of diverse regions, incorporating alternative policy strategies and development scenarios. This report focuses primarily on the period 1970-2015, because reliable historical data are often only generally available from 1970 onwards and the year 2015 is believed to match the time perspective of decision-makers. The findings of the analysis are reported in terms of six regions, corresponding with the division of the UNEP regional offices. Questions asked are: how will socioeconomic driving forces affect freshwater and land resources, and how will these changes mutually interact, and why are these changes important for society? Chapter 2 deals with the development of the social and economic driving forces. In the Chapters 3 and 4 it is discussed how this pressure influences selected aspects of the environment. Chapter 3 alone addresses the importance of selected elements of the interacting global element cycles for environmental quality, while Chapter 4 addresses land resources, their potential for food production and associated dependence on freshwater resources. The impacts on selected components of natural areas (Chapter 5) and society (Chapter 6) are subsequently addressed

  14. Global Rome

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  15. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  16. The analysis of plant remains from the fortress Ras - the 12th and the beginning of the 13th century

    Borojević Ksenija

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study of macro plant remains from the medieval site of Ras that is situated in the southwest Serbia, 11 km southwest from the city of Novi Pazar. The site of Gradina at Ras occupies a plateau on the top of a hill delineated by the remains of the medieval ramparts. The settlement of Podgrađe is situated on the a flat surface along the slopes of Gradina and together form a part of the single settlement and fortification complex Ras characterized by several stages of occupation and development. During archaeological excavations of Ras, macro plant remains were gathered (1972–1984 where observed with a naked eye. Dr. Marko Popović (Archaeological Institute, Belgrade, the principal investigator of Ras and the author of the monograph The Fortress of Ras (1999 provided me with twelve plant samples from the medieval layers of the fortress Gradina, and one sample from the site Podgrađe below the fortress (Table 1. Three samples are from the third building horizon dated to the second half of the 12 century, and the remaining samples are from the fourth building horizon dated to the first decades of the 13 century. This is a period when the fortress was abandoned by the Byzantines and became a stronghold of the territory where the first Serbian state was formed. All plant samples were carbonized, except one that contained five uncarbonized hazelnut shells and a plum pit that were determined to be recent intrusions. Most samples represent material from cereal storages found at features (houses 49, 50, and 52–situated along the west wall of the fortress (Figure 1. One sample is a piece of bread found at feature 36, and one sample represents the contents of a pot found in feature 51. Carbonized peach pits were recovered from cultural layers of the fourth horizon, one from a southeast quadrant of Gradina and the other from a cultural layer excavated in Podgrađe (Table 1.This analysis of plant remains from Ras (Table 2 is the first

  17. Global Analysis of Palmitoylated Proteins in Toxoplasma gondii.

    Foe, Ian T; Child, Matthew A; Majmudar, Jaimeen D; Krishnamurthy, Shruthi; van der Linden, Wouter A; Ward, Gary E; Martin, Brent R; Bogyo, Matthew

    2015-10-14

    Post-translational modifications (PTMs) such as palmitoylation are critical for the lytic cycle of the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii. While palmitoylation is involved in invasion, motility, and cell morphology, the proteins that utilize this PTM remain largely unknown. Using a chemical proteomic approach, we report a comprehensive analysis of palmitoylated proteins in T. gondii, identifying a total of 282 proteins, including cytosolic, membrane-associated, and transmembrane proteins. From this large set of palmitoylated targets, we validate palmitoylation of proteins involved in motility (myosin light chain 1, myosin A), cell morphology (PhIL1), and host cell invasion (apical membrane antigen 1, AMA1). Further studies reveal that blocking AMA1 palmitoylation enhances the release of AMA1 and other invasion-related proteins from apical secretory organelles, suggesting a previously unrecognized role for AMA1. These findings suggest that palmitoylation is ubiquitous throughout the T. gondii proteome and reveal insights into the biology of this important human pathogen. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Determinants of renewable energy growth: A global sample analysis

    Aguirre, Mariana; Ibikunle, Gbenga

    2014-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing country-level renewable energy growth by applying FEVD and PCSE estimation methods in a unique sample analysis. With a longer time series (1990–2010) and a broader sample size of countries (including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) than previous studies, our results reveal new insights. The results suggest that certain government-backed energy policies impede renewable energy investments, thus implying significant failures in policy design. These policies may be failing mainly because of uncertainty and the likelihood of discontinuity. Weak voluntary approaches are introduced in order to satisfy public demand for more sustainable investments and programmes; we find that these may have negative influences on the growth of renewables as well. The insight gained is consistent over the estimation methods employed. - Highlights: • Some public energy policies are shown to impede renewable energy investments; this implies failure in policy design. • Environmental concern is shown to drive renewables investment but energy security concerns do not seem to influence renewables investment. • Results suggest that countries are likely to reduce renewables commitments when under pressure to ensure energy supply. • Results seem to underscore the policy lobbying strength of the traditional energy mix industries

  19. Global Proteome Analysis Identifies Active Immunoproteasome Subunits in Human Platelets*

    Klockenbusch, Cordula; Walsh, Geraldine M.; Brown, Lyda M.; Hoffman, Michael D.; Ignatchenko, Vladimir; Kislinger, Thomas; Kast, Juergen

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of new functions for platelets, particularly in inflammation and immunity, has expanded the role of these anucleate cell fragments beyond their primary hemostatic function. Here, four in-depth human platelet proteomic data sets were generated to explore potential new functions for platelets based on their protein content and this led to the identification of 2559 high confidence proteins. During a more detailed analysis, consistently high expression of the proteasome was discovered, and the composition and function of this complex, whose role in platelets has not been thoroughly investigated, was examined. Data set mining resulted in identification of nearly all members of the 26S proteasome in one or more data sets, except the β5 subunit. However, β5i, a component of the immunoproteasome, was identified. Biochemical analyses confirmed the presence of all catalytically active subunits of the standard 20S proteasome and immunoproteasome in human platelets, including β5, which was predominantly found in its precursor form. It was demonstrated that these components were assembled into the proteasome complex and that standard proteasome as well as immunoproteasome subunits were constitutively active in platelets. These findings suggest potential new roles for platelets in the immune system. For example, the immunoproteasome may be involved in major histocompatibility complex I (MHC I) peptide generation, as the MHC I machinery was also identified in our data sets. PMID:25146974

  20. Global proteome analysis identifies active immunoproteasome subunits in human platelets.

    Klockenbusch, Cordula; Walsh, Geraldine M; Brown, Lyda M; Hoffman, Michael D; Ignatchenko, Vladimir; Kislinger, Thomas; Kast, Juergen

    2014-12-01

    The discovery of new functions for platelets, particularly in inflammation and immunity, has expanded the role of these anucleate cell fragments beyond their primary hemostatic function. Here, four in-depth human platelet proteomic data sets were generated to explore potential new functions for platelets based on their protein content and this led to the identification of 2559 high confidence proteins. During a more detailed analysis, consistently high expression of the proteasome was discovered, and the composition and function of this complex, whose role in platelets has not been thoroughly investigated, was examined. Data set mining resulted in identification of nearly all members of the 26S proteasome in one or more data sets, except the β5 subunit. However, β5i, a component of the immunoproteasome, was identified. Biochemical analyses confirmed the presence of all catalytically active subunits of the standard 20S proteasome and immunoproteasome in human platelets, including β5, which was predominantly found in its precursor form. It was demonstrated that these components were assembled into the proteasome complex and that standard proteasome as well as immunoproteasome subunits were constitutively active in platelets. These findings suggest potential new roles for platelets in the immune system. For example, the immunoproteasome may be involved in major histocompatibility complex I (MHC I) peptide generation, as the MHC I machinery was also identified in our data sets. © 2014 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  1. QTL global meta-analysis: are trait determining genes clustered?

    Adelson David L

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key open question in biology is if genes are physically clustered with respect to their known functions or phenotypic effects. This is of particular interest for Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL where a QTL region could contain a number of genes that contribute to the trait being measured. Results We observed a significant increase in gene density within QTL regions compared to non-QTL regions and/or the entire bovine genome. By grouping QTL from the Bovine QTL Viewer database into 8 categories of non-redundant regions, we have been able to analyze gene density and gene function distribution, based on Gene Ontology (GO with relation to their location within QTL regions, outside of QTL regions and across the entire bovine genome. We identified a number of GO terms that were significantly over represented within particular QTL categories. Furthermore, select GO terms expected to be associated with the QTL category based on common biological knowledge have also proved to be significantly over represented in QTL regions. Conclusion Our analysis provides evidence of over represented GO terms in QTL regions. This increased GO term density indicates possible clustering of gene functions within QTL regions of the bovine genome. Genes with similar functions may be grouped in specific locales and could be contributing to QTL traits. Moreover, we have identified over-represented GO terminology that from a biological standpoint, makes sense with respect to QTL category type.

  2. Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses application and results of global sensitivity analysis techniques to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, and their comparison to importance measures. This comparison allows one to understand whether PSA elements that are important to the risk, as revealed by importance measures, are also important contributors to the model uncertainty, as revealed by global sensitivity analysis. We show that, due to epistemic dependence, uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of PSA models must be performed at the parameter level. A difficulty arises, since standard codes produce the calculations at the basic event level. We discuss both the indirect comparison through importance measures computed for basic events, and the direct comparison performed using the differential importance measure and the Fussell-Vesely importance at the parameter level. Results are discussed for the large LLOCA sequence of the advanced test reactor PSA

  3. Global sensitivity analysis for fuzzy inputs based on the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Zhou, Yicheng

    2018-06-01

    To analyse the component of fuzzy output entropy, a decomposition method of fuzzy output entropy is first presented. After the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy, the total fuzzy output entropy can be expressed as the sum of the component fuzzy entropy contributed by fuzzy inputs. Based on the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy, a new global sensitivity analysis model is established for measuring the effects of uncertainties of fuzzy inputs on the output. The global sensitivity analysis model can not only tell the importance of fuzzy inputs but also simultaneously reflect the structural composition of the response function to a certain degree. Several examples illustrate the validity of the proposed global sensitivity analysis, which is a significant reference in engineering design and optimization of structural systems.

  4. Ensuring dynamic strategic fit of firms that compete globally in alliances and networks: proposing the Global SNA - Strategic Network Analysis - framework

    T. Diana L. Van Aduard de Macedo-Soares

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to sustain their competitive advantage in the current increasingly globalized and turbulent context, more and more firms are competing globally in alliances and networks that oblige them to adopt new managerial paradigms and tools. However, their strategic analyses rarely take into account the strategic implications of these alliances and networks, considering their global relational characteristics, admittedly because of a lack of adequate tools to do so. This paper contributes to research that seeks to fill this gap by proposing the Global Strategic Network Analysis - SNA - framework. Its purpose is to help firms that compete globally in alliances and networks to carry out their strategic assessments and decision-making with a view to ensuring dynamic strategic fit from both a global and relational perspective.

  5. Correlation and network analysis of global financial indices.

    Kumar, Sunil; Deo, Nivedita

    2012-08-01

    Random matrix theory (RMT) and network methods are applied to investigate the correlation and network properties of 20 financial indices. The results are compared before and during the financial crisis of 2008. In the RMT method, the components of eigenvectors corresponding to the second largest eigenvalue form two clusters of indices in the positive and negative directions. The components of these two clusters switch in opposite directions during the crisis. The network analysis uses the Fruchterman-Reingold layout to find clusters in the network of indices at different thresholds. At a threshold of 0.6, before the crisis, financial indices corresponding to the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific form separate clusters. On the other hand, during the crisis at the same threshold, the American and European indices combine together to form a strongly linked cluster while the Asia-Pacific indices form a separate weakly linked cluster. If the value of the threshold is further increased to 0.9 then the European indices (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) are found to be the most tightly linked indices. The structure of the minimum spanning tree of financial indices is more starlike before the crisis and it changes to become more chainlike during the crisis. The average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to find a clearer cluster structure in the network of financial indices. The cophenetic correlation coefficients are calculated and found to increase significantly, which indicates that the hierarchy increases during the financial crisis. These results show that there is substantial change in the structure of the organization of financial indices during a financial crisis.

  6. Global transcriptome analysis of the heat shock response ofshewanella oneidensis

    Gao, Haichun; Wang, Sarah; Liu, Xueduan; Yan, Tinfeng; Wu, Liyou; Alm, Eric; Arkin, Adam P.; Thompson, Dorothea K.; Zhou, Jizhong

    2004-04-30

    Shewanella oneidensis is an important model organism for bioremediation studies because of its diverse respiratory capabilities. However, the genetic basis and regulatory mechanisms underlying the ability of S. oneidensis to survive and adapt to various environmentally relevant stresses is poorly understood. To define this organism's molecular response to elevated growth temperatures, temporal gene expression profiles were examined in cells subjected to heat stress using whole-genome DNA microarrays for S. oneidensis MR-1. Approximately 15 percent (711) of the predicted S. oneidensis genes represented on the microarray were significantly up- or down-regulated (P < 0.05) over a 25-min period following shift to the heat shock temperature (42 C). As expected, the majority of S. oneidensis genes exhibiting homology to known chaperones and heat shock proteins (Hsps) were highly and transiently induced. In addition, a number of predicted genes encoding enzymes in glycolys is and the pentose cycle, [NiFe] dehydrogenase, serine proteases, transcriptional regulators (MerR, LysR, and TetR families), histidine kinases, and hypothetical proteins were induced in response to heat stress. Genes encoding membrane proteins were differentially expressed, suggesting that cells possibly alter their membrane composition or structure in response to variations in growth temperature. A substantial number of the genes encoding ribosomal proteins displayed down-regulated co-expression patterns in response to heat stress, as did genes encoding prophage and flagellar proteins. Finally, based on computational comparative analysis of the upstream promoter regions of S.oneidensis heat-inducible genes, a putative regulatory motif, showing high conservation to the Escherichia coli sigma 32-binding consensus sequence, was identified.

  7. Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis

    Karandish, Fatemeh; Mousavi, Seyed-Saeed

    2018-01-01

    For a 120-year period, the projected effects of climate change on annual, seasonal, and monthly potential evapotranspiration (ETo) and green water deficit (GWD) were analyzed involving the associated uncertainties for five climatic zones of Iran. Analysis was carried out using data obtained from 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2, and B1 which were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project a positive change in both ETo and GWD. A total of 5.8-19.8 % increase in annual ETo, drier than normal wet seasons, as well as 2.3-56.4 % increase in ETo during December-March period well represent a probable increase in the hydrological water requirement in Iran under global warming. Regarding GWD, the country will experience more arid years requiring 113.7 × 103-576.8 × 103 Mm3 more water to supply annual atmospheric water demand. Semi-arid and Mediterranean regions, principal agricultural producer areas of Iran, will be the most vulnerable part of the country due to 1-38.6 % increase in annual GWD under climate change. In addition, water scarcity for irrigated agriculture will enhance in all climatic zones due to 0.9-41 % increase GWD in June-August. However, rain-fed agriculture might be less affected in the hyper-humid and Mediterranean regions because of 1.1-105.3 % reduction in GWD during wet season. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis revealed that given results for monthly timescale as well as those for times and regions with lower ETo will be the most uncertain. Based on the results, suitable adaptation solutions are highly required to be undertaken to relieve the extra pressure on the decreased blue water resources in the future.

  8. Malaria, Tarai Adivasi and the Landlord State in the 19th century Nepal: A Historical-Ethnographic Analysis

    Janak Rai

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the interplay between malaria, the Tarai Adivasi and the extractive landlord state in the 19th century Nepal by focusing on Dhimal, one indigenous community from the easternmost lowlands. Throughout the 19th century, the Nepali state and its rulers treated the Tarai as a state geography of extraction for land, labor, revenue and political control. The malarial environment of the Tarai, which led to the shortage people (labor force, posed a major challenge to the 19th  century extractive landlord state and the landowning elites to materialize the colonizing project in the Tarai. The shortage of labor added pressure on the malaria resistant Tarai Adivasi to reclaim and cultivate land for the state. The paper highlights the need for ethnographically informed social history of malaria in studying the changing relations between the state and the ?div?si communities in the Tarai DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10438 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 87-112

  9. A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

    Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2018-04-01

    Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

  10. Development and verification of local/global analysis techniques for laminated composites

    Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

    1989-01-01

    Analysis and design methods for laminated composite materials have been the subject of considerable research over the past 20 years, and are currently well developed. In performing the detailed three-dimensional analyses which are often required in proximity to discontinuities, however, analysts often encounter difficulties due to large models. Even with the current availability of powerful computers, models which are too large to run, either from a resource or time standpoint, are often required. There are several approaches which can permit such analyses, including substructuring, use of superelements or transition elements, and the global/local approach. This effort is based on the so-called zoom technique to global/local analysis, where a global analysis is run, with the results of that analysis applied to a smaller region as boundary conditions, in as many iterations as is required to attain an analysis of the desired region. Before beginning the global/local analyses, it was necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the three-dimensional elements currently implemented in the Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed. It was also desired to install, using the Experimental Element Capability, a number of displacement formulation elements which have well known behavior when used for analysis of laminated composites.

  11. Global Scale Analysis of Martian Landslide Mobility and Paleoenvironmental Clues

    Crosta, Giovanni Battista; De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Frattini, Paolo

    2018-04-01

    The mobility of landslides on Mars is studied based on a database of 3,118 events. To establish the volume of the landslides for the whole data set based on the deposit area, a new volume-area relationship based on a representative data set of 222 landslides is used. By plotting the H/L ratio between fall height H and runout L versus volume, the landslide mobility is analyzed and compared with existing empirical relationships for Martian and terrestrial landslides. By analyzing the mobility in terms of normalized residuals, that is, the relative deviation of the H/L ratio from the data set best-fit line, mobility is found to depend on both the landslide location on Mars and the landslide typology. This allows us to identify four different types of high-mobility (hypermobile) landslides. Three classes of high-mobility landslides are associated respectively to meteoroid impact, the Olympus Mons aureoles, and landslides with Toreva-block failure style, and their mobility can be explained by the peculiar flow mechanics. The fourth class includes landslides associated with isolated craters, those in the regions wetted by the putative Oceanus Borealis, and the ones at high latitudes. We suggest that the common factor behind all the hypermobile landslides of this fourth kind is the presence of ice. This is confirmed by our data showing that landslides increase in mobility with latitude. The latitudinal trend mirrors the distribution of ice as detected by radar, neutron probes, and the presence of glacial and layered ejecta morphologies. Because the overall landslide distribution supports the presence of ice-lubricated conditions, two ice lubrication models are presented showing how ice melting within or underneath the landslides could enhance mobility. By proper analysis in terms of apparent friction residuals, we find that the mobility of landslides in Valles Marineris with the largest landslide concentration is lower than average. We explain this circumstance partly

  12. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  13. An empirical analysis оn logistics performance and the global competitiveness

    Turkay Yildiz

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Logistics has been identified as an area to build cost and service advantages. Therefore, companies are more focused on customer needs and trying to find ways to reduce costs, improve quality and meet the growing expectations of their clients. Indeed, the global competition has led managers to begin to address the issue of providing more efficient logistics services. In this regard, this paper presents an empirical study on logistics performance and global competitiveness. This paper also identifies the associations between logistics performances and global competitiveness. The results indicate that some variables in global competitiveness scores contribute much higher to the logistics performances than the other variables through analysis. The variables that contribute much higher than the other variables to the logistics performances are shown.

  14. Common and different in the development of trade unions of Galicia first quarter of the ХХ century and modern Ukraine: comparative analysis

    R. Ja. Berest

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Qualitative changes in the trade union movement of modern Ukraine are its origins back to the 80’s of the ХХ century. However, the final stage of almost 70­year history of professional organizations as a single centralized structure began last XIX Congress of Trade Unions of the USSR, held in 1990. Trade union movement since then began to develop on a completely different basis ­ federalism and konfederalizm that has long been practiced in the world in countries with highly developed democracy. And after Ukraine became independent trade unions immediately felt the change in the political situation, new and not simple environment for their activities. This study is one of the first attempts systematic research activities of trade unions on the territory of Galicia during the first quarter of the XX ­ XXI century. The article gives an opportunity to reveal one of the most important issues ­ the historical experience of activity of trade Union organizations of Eastern Galicia and modern Ukraine. It also shows the role and importance of trade unions in the political life of Galicia in the last century. The use of the comparative analysis made it possible to find the common and different in the activities of trade Union organizations of different historical periods.

  15. The management century.

    Kiechel, Walter

    2012-11-01

    In 1886, addressing the nascent American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Henry R. Towne proposed that "the management of works" be considered a modern art--thereby heralding the Management Century, when management as we know it came into being and shaped the world in which we work. Kiechel, a past editorial director of Harvard Business Publishing, elucidates the three eras that punctuate this period: the years leading up to World War II, during which scientific exactitude gave wings to a new managerial elite; the early postwar decades, managerialism's apogee of self-confidence and a time when wartime principles of strategy were adapted, sometimes ruthlessly, to the running of companies; and the 1980s to the present, years that saw fast-moving changes, disequilibrium, and a servitude to market forces but also ushered in globalism, unprecedented innovation, and heightened expectations about how workers are to be treated. Along the way he examines the contributions of thinkers such as Frederick Taylor, Elton Mayo, Peter Drucker, and Michael Porter. What lies ahead? Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the 21st-century company, Kiechel posits, is to truly free the spark of human imagination from the organization's tidal pull toward the status quo. There's almost always a better way, he concludes--and management will continue to seek it.

  16. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  17. Political priority of global oral health: an analysis of reasons for international neglect.

    Benzian, Habib; Hobdell, Martin; Holmgren, Christopher; Yee, Robert; Monse, Bella; Barnard, Johannes T; van Palenstein Helderman, Wim

    2011-06-01

    Global Oral Health suffers from a lack of political attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper analyses the reasons for this political neglect through the lens of four areas of political power: the power of the ideas, the power of the issue, the power of the actors, and the power of the political context (using a modified Political Power Framework by Shiffman and Smith. Lancet370 [2007] 1370). The analysis reveals that political priority for global oral health is low, resulting from a set of complex issues deeply rooted in the current global oral health sector, its stakeholders and their remit, the lack of coherence and coalescence; as well as the lack of agreement on the problem, its portrayal and possible solutions. The shortcomings and weaknesses demonstrated in the analysis range from rather basic matters, such as defining the issue in an agreed way, to complex and multi-levelled issues concerning appropriate data collection and agreement on adequate solutions. The political priority of Global Oral Health can only be improved by addressing the underlying reasons that resulted in the wide disconnection between the international health discourse and the small sector of Global Oral Health. We hope that this analysis may serve as a starting point for a long overdue, broad and candid international analysis of political, social, cultural, communication, financial and other factors related to better prioritisation of oral health. Without such an analysis and the resulting concerted action the inequities in Global Oral Health will grow and increasingly impact on health systems, development and, most importantly, human lives. © 2011 FDI World Dental Federation.

  18. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  19. IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

    Huang, Lihan

    2017-12-04

    The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.