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Sample records for causal da sarna

  1. Reação de cultivares de batata a Streptomyces scabies, agente causal da sarna comum profunda Reaction of potato cultivars to Streptomyces scabies, causal agent of deep common scab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Herman Fischer

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho visou caracterizar quanto a critérios morfológicos e fisiológicos isolados de Streptomyces causadores de sarna comum profunda em batata; avaliar o comportamento de cultivares em relação à doença e a variação na agressividade entre os isolados da bactéria. Os isolados de Streptomyces apresentaram coloração cinza em meio extrato de levedura e malte e cadeias de esporos espiraladas, produzidas sobre um micélio aéreo. Ocorreu produção de melanina em meio de tirosina-ágar e a utilização de oito fontes de carbono recomendadas, propriedades estas que correspondem às descritas para S. scabies. Batatas-semente sadias de seis cultivares foram plantadas em substrato infestado com seis isolados de S. scabies separadamente e as plantas cultivadas em vasos e ambiente aberto. A severidade da doença foi estimada com auxílio de uma escala diagramática e avaliou-se o rendimento de tubérculos (g/planta. As cvs. Mondial e Jaete Bintje foram as mais resistentes à sarna comum com severidade média nos dois experimentos de 10,5% e 14,0%, respectivamente, seguidas por Asterix (17,4%, Ágata (21,8%, Monalisa (23,0% e Cupido (23,3%. A agressividade dos isolados variou quantitativamente, com severidade maior para o isolado M4 (34,7% e menor para o isolado M1 (6,2%. Redução da produção de tubérculos foi verificada na cv. Jaete Bintje, no primeiro experimento, e quando as cultivares foram infectadas pelos isolados A1, M2 e M3, no primeiro experimento, e pelo isolado M4, no segundo experimento.This work aimed to characterize the isolates of Streptomyces, responsible for deep common scab symptoms in potato, according to morphological and physiological criteria; to evaluate the resistance of potato cultivars to the disease and the aggressiveness of bacterium isolates. The Streptomyces isolates presented gray coloration on yeast extract and malt medium and spiral spore chains, produced on aerial hyphae. Production of melanina occurred

  2. LA SARNA PLATEADA (Helminthosporium solani (DUR. & MONT., UNA ENFERMEDAD DE CRECIENTE IMPORTANCIA EN PAPA

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    Lili Marijke Hofmann

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available El presente trabajo es una revisión bibliográfica sobre la enfermedad de la sarna plateada y su agente causal Helminthosporium solani (Dur. & Mont. en el cultivo de la papa (Solanum tuberosum L.. Desde hace 15 años, esta enfermedad juega un papel cada vez más importante en la producción de este tubérculo. Esta revisión abarca la importancia económica de la enfermedad, su detección en los tubérculos y en el suelo, y su aislamiento. También se desarrolla el tema del ciclo de vida de H. solani, el cual todavía no se conoce por completo. Además, se incluye el control de la sarna plateada mediante fungicidas, prácticas del manejo del cultivo en el campo y en almacenamiento, uso de antagonistas y a través de la mejora genética.

  3. Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Antonakis, J.

    2015-01-01

    Making correct causal claims is important for research and practice. This article explains what causality is, and how it can be established via experimental design. Because experiments are infeasible in many applied settings, researchers often use "observational" methods to estimate causal models. In these situations, it is likely that model estimates are compromised by endogeneity. The article discusses the conditions that engender endogeneity and methods that can eliminate it.

  4. Sarna noruega: alcoholismo como factor predisponente. Reporte de un caso

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    La escabiosis o sarna humana es una dermatosis causada a partir de la infección cutánea por Sarcoptes scabiei. Una variante severa y rara de ella es la escabiosis noruega o costrosa, que ha repuntado en los últimos años por el incremento en patologías que causan inmunosupresión. Clínicamente se presenta con hiperqueratosis y placas costrosas predominantemente en tórax, cabeza, palmas y plantas. Su diagnóstico es sencillo, mediante la observación microscópica del artrópodo. Se ha descrito su t...

  5. Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  6. JOHN SEARLE SOBRE A IDENTIDADE E A EFICÁCIA CAUSAL DA CONSCIÊNCIA

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    Tárik de Athayde Prata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available O texto discute os problemas em que se envolve o naturalismo biológico deJohn Searle ao defender (a a eficácia causal da consciência, (b a identidade dascapacidades causais da consciência e das capacidades causais dos processos cerebrais e(c a irredutibilidade ontológica da consciência. Essas três teses parecem implicar que aconsciência é e não é idêntica à atividade cerebral. Uma solução poderia ser encontradase o autor discutisse mais cuidadosamente a noção de identidade.

  7. COMPORTAMENTO DE QUATRO VARIEDADES ALEMÃS DE BATATA EM RELAÇÃO À SARNA COMUM (Streptomyces scabies (Thaxt Waks. BEHAVIOR OF FOUR GERMAN POTATO VARIETIES IN RELATION TO COMMON SCAB (Streptomyces scabies (THAXT WAKS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raulino A. Barbosa

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available

    Em trabalho realizado na Escola de Agronomia e Veterinária da U.F.Go. — Goiânia, em 1971, foram comparadas quatro variedades alemãs de batata quanto à susceptibilidade à sarna comum (Streptomyces scabies. Houve diferença significante quanto à infecção pela bactéria incitadora da sarna comum, sendo a variedade Hydra a mais severamente afetada (41,91%, seguindo-se a Delta-A (28,48%, e finalmente as variedades Tondra (19,87% e Hansa (16,51% que apresentaram menor suscetibilidade. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre as variedades Tondra e Hansa. Os tubérculos da variedade Hydra apresentaram-se, em parte, nitidamente deformados, com lesões profundas, semelhantes as rachaduras imperfeitamente cicatrizadas, ficando parcialmente inutilizados para o comércio. Os tubérculos das variedades Tondra e Hansa exibiram, por outro lado, lesões pequenas, superficiais e pouco numerosas, não chegando a afetar o valor comercial do produto.

    Four German potato varieties Delta-A, Hansa, Hydra and Tondra were tested on their resistence to common scab (Streptomyces scabies. This trial was carried out, in Goiânia, state of Goiás, with tubers harvested from the first planting of imported seed potatoes, in the so-called dry season (March to August. The four varieties differed significantly each other in resistence to common scab. Hansa was found to be the most resistent, followed by Tondra, Delta-A and Hydra. The last one showed a large number of tubers misshaded by scab infestion.

  8. SURTO DE SARNA CORIÓPTICA EM CAPRINOS NA CIDADE DE GRAVATÁ, REGIÃO AGRESTE DO ESTADO DE PERNAMBUCO OUTBREAK OF CHORIOPTIC MANGE IN GOATS IN THE CITY OF GRAVATÁ IN PERNAMBUCO´S AGRESTE REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Isabel de Souza

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available

    A sarna corióptica é de rara ocorrência em caprinos, no entanto trata-se de uma enfermidade cutânea importante, resultando em perdas econômicas decorrentes do retardo no desenvolvimento dos animais, da perda de peso e do prejuízo à indústria de couro. Desse modo, o objetivo do presente artigo é relatar a ocorrência de um surto de sarna corióptica em um rebanho caprino criado no município de Gravatá (Lat. 08° 12’ 04’’ S e Long. 35° 33’ 53’’ O, região Agreste do estado de Pernambuco. Os animais apresentavam extensas áreas de alopecia, eritema, crostas e espessamento da pele na região das axilas, peito, ventre e as faces caudal e craniomedial dos membros posteriores, além de intenso prurido. Foi realizado raspado cutâneo e identificado o ácaro Chorioptes bovis spp.

    PALAVRAS-CHAVES: Caprinos, Chorioptes spp, sarna.

    Chorioptic mange is of rare occurrence in goats, although it is an important skin disease resulting in economic loss due to the delay in the development of the animals, weight loss and economic losses to the leather industry. Thus, the aim of the present article was to report the occurrence of an outbreak of chorioptic mange in a goat flock reared in the city of Gravatá, (Lat. 08° 12’ 04’’ S and Long. 35° 33’ 53’’ W in Pernambuco´s Agreste region. The animals showed wide alopecia areas, erythema, crusts and skin thickness in the following areas: armpits, sternum, ventral abdomen, caudal and cranium-medial facets of the hind legs and severe scratching. Chorioptes bovis spp was identified in skin scrapings.

    KEY WORDS: Chorioptes spp, goats, mange.

  9. Reavaliação taxonômica de Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq. agente causal da antracnose do guaranazeiro Taxonomic reavaluation of Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq. causal agent of guarana anthracnose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jânia Lília da Silva Bentes

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Foi realizada uma reavaliação morfológica de estruturas reprodutivas e de infecção do agente causal da antracnose do guaranazeiro (Paullinia cupana var. sorbilis, visando confirmar a identidade do patógeno. Os resultados reforçam o reconhecimento da espécie Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq., como um novo taxon dentro do gênero Colletotrichum.A morphological study of reproductive and infection structures of the anthracnosis fungus of guaranazeiro (Paullinia cupana var. sorbilis, has confirmed the pathogen identity as Colletotrichum guaranicola Albuq., a new specie in the Colletotrichum genera.

  10. ITS-rDNA phylogeny of Colletotrichum spp. causal agent of apple Glomerella leaf spot Filogenia por ITS-rDNA de Colletotrichum spp., agente causal da mancha foliar da Gala em macieira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diorvania Ribeiro Giaretta

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Several diseases have affected apple production, among them there is Glomerella leaf spot (GLS caused by Colletotrichum spp. The first report of this disease in apple was in plants nearby citrus orchards in São Paulo State, Brazil. The origin of this disease is still not clear, and studies based on the molecular phylogeny could relate the organisms evolutionarily and characterize possible mechanisms of divergent evolution. The amplification of 5.8S-ITS (Internal Transcribed Spacer of rDNA of 51 pathogenic Colletotrichum spp. isolates from apples, pineapple guava and citrus produced one fragment of approximately 600 bases pairs (bp for all the isolates analyzed. The amplified fragments were cleaved with restriction enzymes, and fragments from 90 to 500bp were obtained. The sequencing of this region allowed the generation of a phylogenetic tree, regardless of their hosts, and 5 isolated groups were obtained. From the "in silico" comparison, it was possible to verify a variation from 93 to 100% of similarity between the sequences studied and the Genbank data base. The causal agent of GLS is nearly related (clustered to isolates of pineapple guava and to the citrus isolates used as control.A produção de maçã vem sendo comprometida pela ocorrência de muitas doenças, entre as quais se destaca a Mancha Foliar de Glomerella (MFG, causada por Colletotrichum spp. O primeiro relato dessa doença em maçã foi registrado em plantas próximas a pomares de citrus no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. A origem da MFG ainda não está bem clara, e estudos baseados na filogenia permitirão relacionar o organismo evolutivamente, possibilitando caracterizar possíveis mecanismos divergentes de evolução. A amplificação da região 5.8S-ITS (espaçador interno transcrito do rDNA de 51 isolados de Colletotrichum patogênicos em de maçã, goiabeira serrana e citrus produziu um fragmento de aproximadamente 600 pares de bases (pb para todos os isolados analisados

  11. Econometric causality

    OpenAIRE

    Heckman, James J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modeling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to infer subjective (agent) evaluations as well as objective outcomes. Anticipated and realized subjective and objective outcomes are distinguished. Models for simultaneous causality are developed. The paper ...

  12. Control y Tratamiento de Sarna (Escabiosis) en Vicuñas de la Comunidad Campesina de Lucanas - Reserva Nacional de Pampa Galeras. Ayacucho Perú

    OpenAIRE

    Bujaico, Norma; Universidad Alas Peruanas; Zuñiga, Marco

    2016-01-01

    El trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo principal tratar y controlar la incidencia de la sarna sarcoptica en vicuñas, la cual es una enfermedad infecciosa parasitaria altamente contagiosa, producida por el acaro Sarcoptes scabiei, el cual viene produciendo cuantiosas pérdidas económicas a la Comunidad Campesina de Lucanas – Reserva Nacional de Pampa.Galeras Barbara D´Achille. La metodología consistió en la aplicación tópica de un unguento preparado a base de aceite común quemado de mo...

  13. K-causality coincides with stable causality

    OpenAIRE

    Minguzzi, E

    2008-01-01

    It is proven that K-causality coincides with stable causality, and that in a K-causal spacetime the relation K^+ coincides with the Seifert's relation. As a consequence the causal relation "the spacetime is strongly causal and the closure of the causal relation is transitive" stays between stable causality and causal continuity.

  14. Causal universe

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

  15. Causal and causally separable processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  16. Causal mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method......The lecture note explains how to use the causal mapping method as well as the theoretical framework aoosciated to the method...

  17. Genes diferencialmente expressos em cana-de-açúcar inoculada com Xanthomonas albilineans, o agente causal da escaldadura da folha Diferential gene expression in sugar cane infected with Xanthomonas albilineans, causal agent of leaf scald

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Maia Dabbas

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available A escaldadura da folha, causada pela bactéria Xanthomonas albilineans colonizadora do xilema, é uma das principais doenças da cana-de-açúcar. A sintomatologia na fase crônica é caracterizada principalmente pelo aparecimento de uma faixa branca paralela à nervura central da folha, que evolui até queimar totalmente, sendo também observado brotação de gemas laterais no colmo. Neste trabalho, a técnica de macroarranjos de cDNA foi empregada para o estudo da expressão de 3.575 ESTs (espressed sequence tags em folhas de cana-de-açúcar. Foram utilizadas duas variedades, uma resistente (SP82-1176 e outra suscetível (SP78-4467 a Xanthomonas albilineans as quais foram infectadas mecanicamente por ferimentos. As membranas dos macroarranjos foram confeccionadas a partir de ESTs de bibliotecas de folha e cartucho de cana-de-açúcar provenientes do projeto SUCEST e hibridizadas contra sondas de cDNA de plantas infectadas e controle marcadas com isótopos radioativos. Analisando os resultados dos macroarranjos foi possível verificar um comportamento diferenciado para cada variedade durante o ataque do patógeno. Após realizadas análises estatísticas identificamos na variedade resistente ESTs com expressão induzida relacionadas com biossíntese de isoprenoides, proteínas LRR transmembrânica, "ziper" de leucina, lignificação, tolerância ao frio, diferenciação de plastídeos, sistemas de defesa e de adaptação da planta ao meio ambiente. As ESTs reprimidas na variedade resistente foram àquelas relacionadas com genes responsáveis pela síntese de proteínas do controle da expansão da parede celular, detoxificação e transporte de auxina. Na variedade susceptível foram reprimidas ESTs relacionadas a genes de proteínas das respostas de defesa da planta, biossíntese de Etileno e regulação da transcrição.The leaf scald disease, caused by the xylem-invading pathogen Xanthomonas albilineans, is one of the most devastating

  18. Causality Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ishanu Chattopadhyay

    2014-01-01

    While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing an efficient causality test, that may be carried out in the absence of restrictive pre-suppositions on the underlying dynamical structure of the data at hand, is non-trivial. Nevertheless, ability to computationally infer statistical prima facie evidence of...

  19. Relação causal da vacinação e o fibrossarcoma vacinal felino

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Os Fibrossarcomas dos felinos domésticos estão reconhecidos desde há 10 anos e têm vindo a alertar os Veterinários, os proprietários e os fabricantes de vacinas, devido à possível ligação do acto de vacinação ao desenvolvimento deste sarcoma. A partir da década de 90, registou-se o aumento dos casos deste tumor na região cervical e interescapular dos gatos, locais frequentemente utilizados para a inoculação de vacinas e outros fármacos injetáveis. Existem relatos da ocorrência de fibro...

  20. Assimetria causal: um estudo

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    Túlio Aguiar

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Neste artigo, examinamos o aspecto assimétrico da relação causal, confrontando-o com o ponto de vista humiano e neo-humiano. Seguindo Hausman e Ehring, favorecemos uma abordagem situacional para a assimetria causal. Nós exploramos a análise do famoso exemplo do mastro (Flagpole, esclarecendo as conexões entre causação e explicação. Nosso diagnóstico geral é que a tradição neo-humiana supõe, equivocadamente, que as relações nômicas, com exceção de pequenos detalhes, exaurem as relações causais.This paper examines the asymmetrical aspect of causal relation, confronting it to Humean and Neo-Humean's view. Following Hausman and Ehring, we favor a situational approach to causal asymmetry. We explore the Hausman's analysis of flagpole's example, clearing the connexions between causation and explanation. Our general diagnosis is that the Neo-humean tradition wrongly supposes that nomic relations, with the exception of minor details, exhaust the causal relations.

  1. Diversidade fenotípica e patogênica de Colletotrichum, agente causal da antracnose em mangueira, e identificação de espécie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M.R.S. Serra

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho teve como objetivo estudar a diversidade fenotípica e patogênica de 40 isolados de Colletotrichum obtidos de mangueira no Nordeste do Brasil e identificar diferentes espécies desse fitopatógeno, agente causal de antracnose, através da análise da seqüência da região ITS do rDNA. Quanto à caracterização morfológica e cultural, as colônias dos isolados apresentaram diversidade em relação à cor e aspecto, sendo mais comum à cor branco-cinza, característica de Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Não foram observadas variações expressivas na morfologia dos 40 isolados. Os conídios apresentaram-se, predominantemente, hialinos e unicelulares, com formato variando de bastonete para cilíndrico. Todos os isolados produziram apressórios variados em formato e quantidade e apenas 10 isolados apresentaram setas. Para efeito do crescimento micelial e taxa de crescimento foi possível classificar os isolados em sete grupos. Vinte e dois isolados exibiram taxa de crescimento >10mm/dia, considerada típica da espécie C. gloeosporioides. Os isolados foram patogênicos em folhas destacadas de mangueira, induzindo sintomas de antracnose, na forma de manchas escuras levemente deprimidas, e apresentando variações quanto à agressividade. Na identificação específica, baseada na análise da seqüência ITS do DNA ribossomal, 36 isolados amplificaram com o oligonucleotídeos CgInt, específico para C. gloeosporioides e o ITS4, Os isolados CM1, CM4, CM5 e CM10, não amplificaram produtos para nenhum dos oligonucleotídeos específicos, sendo identificados como Colletotrichum spp. Os resultados desse trabalho demonstraram que isolados de Colletotrichum, obtidos de mangueira, apresentam ampla variabilidade morfofisiológica e patogênica. E que, possivelmente, existe mais de uma espécie de Colletotrichum que causa antracnose em mangueira no Nordeste do Brasil.

  2. Epidemiological causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  3. Causality Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Do Minh

    2001-01-01

    We advance a famous principle - causality principle - but under a new view. This principle is a principium automatically leading to most fundamental laws of the nature. It is the inner origin of variation, rules evolutionary processes of things, and the answer of the quest for ultimate theories of the Universe.

  4. Brote intrahospitalario de escabiasis, a partir de un caso de sarna noruega Nosocomial outbreak of scabies from a Norwegian scabies case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Fajardo-Velázquez

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Describir un brote intrahospitalario de escabiasis ocurrido en la Ciudad de México, en agosto de 1999, como resultado de exposición a un caso de sarna noruega no diagnosticado oportunamente. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Después de revisar el caso índice, instituimos aislamiento del paciente e identificamos casos secundarios de escabiasis entre pacientes hospitalizados, empleados que laboraban en el área afectada y sus familiares. Sólo individuos que padecían lesiones dérmicas y prurito fueron incluidos como casos infestados. Se establecieron medidas de control, como aislamiento de contacto, manejo apropiado de ropas contaminadas y tratamiento tópico. RESULTADOS: Un paciente con SIDA (caso índice de sarna noruega que cursaba con desequilibrio hidroelectrolítico severo fue admitido en el Hospital de Infectología, del Centro Médico Nacional La Raza, del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, del 19 de julio al 20 de agosto de 1999, en la Ciudad de México. Veintiocho días después de su admisión emergieron casos de escabiasis entre los trabajadores de la salud; entonces, se sospechó de escabiasis noruega, lo que se confirmó por evidencia microscópica de los parásitos en una preparación de escamas del caso pista. Identificamos 48 casos secundarios con sarna clínica: 71% trabajadores de la salud, principalmente enfermeras (79%, 23% familiares de trabajadores y 6% pacientes. El periodo de incubación promedio fue de 15 días (intervalo 12 a 27. Aunque con mayor frecuencia las lesiones involucraron extremidades superiores (60%, las manos fueron respetadas. CONCLUSIONES: Este trabajo demuestra no sólo las dificultades para diagnosticar la escabiasis noruega en el hospedero inmunosuprimido, sino también la importancia de estar seguros de que los trabajadores de la salud cumplan con las precauciones estándar en todo momentoOBJECTIVE: To describe a nosocomial outbreak of scabies occurred in August 1999, resulting from exposure to

  5. Causal Selection and Counterfactual Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Jiménez-Leal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo defiende la posición según la cual el pensamiento contrafactual depende de nuestra representación causal del mundo y, en este sentido, argumenta que existe una estrecha relación entre el razonamiento causal y el contrafactual. Se lleva a cabo una crítica a la teoría de la disociación de juicios de Mandel (Mandel, 2003b, que defiende la independencia funcional entre el proceso de selección causal y el razonamiento contrafactual en el contexto de la selección causal. En los experimentos realizados se manipularon algunos elementos de la semántica de la tarea con el fin de ilustrar aquellos casos en los que no se da la disociación entre el razonamiento causal y el contrafactual. En el Experimento 1, el nivel de descripción del evento objetivo se manipuló en una tarea de generación de listas y evaluación. El Experimento 2 replicó los hallazgos del Experimento 1 utilizando un sistema de codificación alternativo, mientras que el Experimento 3 realizó lo mismo utilizando un formato de respuesta alternativo. Los resultados de los experimentos apoyan la concepción del entendimiento causal propuesta por los modelos mentales causales.

  6. Biología, Desarrollo y Control de la roña o sarna (Venturia inaequalis del manzano (COOK Winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorety Santamaria

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available La sarna Venturia inaequalis del manzano, es una de las enfermedades más importantes a nivel mundial. Anualmente se invierten millones de dólares en la compra y pulverización de fungicidas para su control. El hongo es altamente prevalente en zonas con pluviometría alta y condiciones favorables para su desarrollo, sumado a la gran susceptibilidad de las variedades cultivadas. Resulta relevante conocer su biología, desarrollo y manejo; aspectos que se plasman en el presente artículo como motivo de reflexión y análisis en el campo de la investigación científica. Lo anterior, debido a que los frutales constituyen un renglón económico que día a día tiene mayor importancia en el desarrollo del sector agrícola de nuestro país.

  7. A rede de causalidade da insegurança alimentar e nutricional de comunidades quilombolas com a construção da rodovia BR-163, Pará, Brasil The causality of nutrition and food insecurity of quilombola communities with the construction of the BR-163, highway, Pará, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Oliveira e Silva

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Trata-se da descrição de resultados baseados na elaboração de um modelo de determinação causal de forma participativa e abrangente, realizada em seis comunidades quilombolas no município de Santarém, no Estado do Pará, sobre a rede de causalidade da insegurança alimentar e nutricional com a abertura da Rodovia BR-163. MÉTODOS: O processo investigativo utilizou métodos de abordagem sócio-antropológica tendo como base o desenvolvimento de um modelo de causalidade construído por meio da realização de grupos focais com representantes da comunidade. RESULTADOS: Os resultados do estudo demonstraram que a utilização de abordagens participativas estimula a auto-estima da comunidade e o empoderamento sobre os fatores que determinam seus problemas. O modelo causal construído revela que a insegurança alimentar e nutricional, para as comunidades, estabelece que fatores históricos relacionados à posse da terra e ao seu uso atual baseado em práticas predatórias, são os aspectos fundamentais na compreensão da rede de determinação causal da insegurança alimentar e nutricional. CONCLUSÃO: O racismo e suas nuances sociais têm contribuído para a invisibilidade social dessas comunidades nas políticas públicas brasileiras. As comunidades quilombolas se consideram em insegurança alimentar e nutricional e indicam que a abertura da Rodovia BR-163 pode ser uma ameaça ao etno-desenvolvimento sustentável na região. E referem que o desenvolvimento econômico esperado com a abertura desta rodovia, se não for realizado com base na participação da comunidade, pode aumentar a fome, a miséria e o racismo.OBJECTIVE: This work describes results based on the participative and encompassing development of a model of causal determination done in six quilombola communities of Santarém, Pará State, regarding the causality of food and nutrition insecurity with the construction of the BR-163 highway. METHODS: The research process

  8. Causal Effect Estimation Methods

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Relationship between two popular modeling frameworks of causal inference from observational data, namely, causal graphical model and potential outcome causal model is discussed. How some popular causal effect estimators found in applications of the potential outcome causal model, such as inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator and doubly robust estimator can be obtained by using the causal graphical model is shown. We confine to the simple case of binary outcome and treatment vari...

  9. Selección y evaluación de microorganismos promisorios para el biocontrol del patógeno Spongospora subterranea, causante de la sarna polvosa de la papa.

    OpenAIRE

    Soler Arango, Juliana

    2012-01-01

    Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea es un patógeno obligado que se replica en raíces y tubérculos de papa, causando la enfermedad conocida como sarna polvosa de la papa en las principales zonas productoras del mundo. Debido a la falta de tratamientos efectivos contra este patógeno y al comercio de tubérculos-semilla infectados, esta enfermedad disminuye el crecimiento de la planta, el área foliar efectiva y la producción hasta un 40%. El control biológico de patógenos del suelo con otr...

  10. Circular causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R

    2006-07-01

    The problem of disentangling complex dynamic systems is addressed, especially with a view to identifying those variables that take part in the essential qualitative behaviour of systems. The author presents a series of reflections about the methods of formalisation together with the principles that govern the global operation of systems. In particular, a section on circuits, nuclei, and circular causality and a rather detailed description of the analytic use of the generalised asynchronous logical description, together with a brief description of its synthetic use (OreverseO logic). Some basic rules are recalled, such as the fact that a positive circuit is a necessary condition of multistationarity. Also, the interest of considering as a model, rather than a well-defined set of differential equations, a variety of systems that differ from each other only by the values of constant terms is emphasised. All these systems have a common Jacobian matrix and for all of them phase space has exactly the same structure. It means that all can be partitioned in the same way as regards the signs of the eigenvalues and thus as regards the precise nature of any steady states that might be present. Which steady states are actually present, depends on the values of terms of order zero in the ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and it is easy to find for which values of these terms a given point in phase space is steady. Models can be synthesised first at the level of the circuits involved in the Jacobian matrix (that determines which types and numbers of steady states are consistent with the model), then only at the level of terms of order zero in the ODE's (that determines which of the steady states actually exist), hence the title 'Circular casuality'.

  11. Causally nonseparable processes admitting a causal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Brukner, Časlav

    2016-08-01

    A recent framework of quantum theory with no global causal order predicts the existence of ‘causally nonseparable’ processes. Some of these processes produce correlations incompatible with any causal order (they violate so-called ‘causal inequalities’ analogous to Bell inequalities) while others do not (they admit a ‘causal model’ analogous to a local model). Here we show for the first time that bipartite causally nonseparable processes with a causal model exist, and give evidence that they have no clear physical interpretation. We also provide an algorithm to generate processes of this kind and show that they have nonzero measure in the set of all processes. We demonstrate the existence of processes which stop violating causal inequalities but are still causally nonseparable when mixed with a certain amount of ‘white noise’. This is reminiscent of the behavior of Werner states in the context of entanglement and nonlocality. Finally, we provide numerical evidence for the existence of causally nonseparable processes which have a causal model even when extended with an entangled state shared among the parties.

  12. Resistência de variedades comerciais de cana-de-açúcar ao agente causal do raquitismo-da-soqueira Resistance of sugarcane commercials cultivars to causal agent of ratoon stunting disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Gagliardi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available O raquitismo-da-soqueira (RSD, causado pela bactéria Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, é uma das mais importantes doenças da cana-de-açúcar nas regiões produtoras do mundo. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o grau de resistência de 10 variedades comerciais RB de cana-de-açúcar mais a variedade CB 49-260, a qual foi incluída como padrão suscetível. O trabalho visou avaliar os danos amostrados em campo pelo peso das parcelas em função da relação entre a produtividade de parcelas inoculadas e não inoculadas artificialmente com a bactéria. Os resultados mostraram que as variedades RB 72 454, RB 83 5486, RB 86 7515, RB 92 5211, RB 92 5268, RB 92 5345, RB 92 8064 e a variedade padrão CB 49-260 comportaram-se como variedades suscetíveis. A variedade RB 85 5156 comportou-se como de resistência intermediária e apenas as variedades RB 85 5453 e RB 85 5536 comportaram-se como tolerantes.Ratoon stunting disease (RSD caused by bacteria Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli is one of the most economically important disease of sugarcane worldwide. The present survey had objective to evaluate the resistance of 10 RB commercial cultivars of sugarcane including CB 49-260 as a susceptible standard. The study evaluated the correlating the damages presented for overhauls productivity of inoculate and non inoculate parcels with the bacteria. The results showed that varieties RB 72 454, RB 83 5486, RB 86 7515, RB 92 8064, RB 92 5211, RB 92 5345 and RB 92 5268 were susceptible. RB 85 5156 had a intermediary resistance and varieties RB 85 5453 and RB 85 5536 both showed tolerant behavior.

  13. Theories of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert

    2010-03-01

    There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

  14. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  15. Efeito de extratos de plantas medicinais no controle de Colletotrichum acutatum, agente causal da flor preta do morangueiro Effect of plant extract on control of Colletotrichum acutatum the causal agent of the black spot of strawberry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taís Ferreira Almeida

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available A flor preta do morangueiro, causada por Colletotrichum acutatum, acarreta sérios problemas à cultura. Com o objetivo de verificar a utilização de extratos vegetais no controle da doença, testes "in vitro" foram realizados com 11 extratos vegetais hidroalcoólicos produzidos de plantas utilizadas na medicina popular. Os extratos foram preparados a partir de diferentes partes da planta, de acordo com a espécie, utilizando água e álcool no processo de extração por maceração. Foi verificada a influência dos extratos no crescimento micelial, esporulação e germinaç��o de esporos de C. acutatum, e também no controle do patógeno em folhas e frutos destacados. De acordo com a metodologia utilizada, os extratos vegetais que apresentaram maior eficiência foram os de folha e ramos de Ruta graveolens, Artemisia absinthium e bulbos de Allium sativum, indicando ter essas plantas potencial fungitóxico para o controle de C. acutatum.The black spot of strawberry plants caused by Colletotrichum acutatum, causes serious problems to the culture. To control the disease and minimize the use of fungicides, in vitro assays were accomplished with 11 different plant hydroalcoholic extract from plants species used in the popular medicine. The extracts were produced from plant parts (according to the species using water and alcohol in the extraction process for infusion. The influence of the extracts was verified in the micelial growth, esporulation and germination of the pathogen, besides a test with leaves and outstanding fruits. In agreement with the methodology used in this study, the extracts that showed the highest efficiency were the ones from Ruta graveolens, Artemisia absinthium and Allium sativum, which indicate such plants as potential fungitoxics for the control of C. acutatum.

  16. Causality in Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Puente Águeda

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

  17. Controle alternativo de Colletotrichum acutatum agente causal da queda prematura dos frutos cítricos Alternative control of Colletotrichum acutatum, causal agent of postbloom fruit drop of citrus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Cristina Kupper

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A queda prematura dos frutos cítricos (QPFC, causada por Colletotrichum acutatum, dados os grandes prejuízos que têm causado aos produtores, constitui-se numa doença de grande importância econômica. O controle da doença é feito predominantemente mediante uso de fungicidas, que eleva o custo de produção e afeta negativamente o meio ambiente. Diante disso, este trabalho teve por objetivo buscar um método alternativo de controle da QPFC, mediante o uso de agentes de biocontrole ou de biofertilizantes. Diferentes concentrações de biofertilizantes (originários de duas fontes distintas e denominados de Bio1 e Bio 2; três isolados de Bacillus subtilis (ACB-69; 72 e 77 e três isolados de Trichoderma spp. (ACB-14; 37 e 39 foram testados, isoladamente ou em combinação, sob condições de laboratório, quanto à capacidade inibitória da germinação de conídios de C. acutatum. Estudaram-se, ainda, a produção de metabólitos termoestáveis por B. subtilis e o efeito sobre a germinação do patógeno. Quinze isolados de B. subtilis foram testados quanto à capacidade de prevenir a infecção por C. acutatum em flores destacadas de lima- ácida 'Tahiti' e, no campo, foram instalados dois experimentos, visando a testar ACBs e biofertilizantes no controle da doença. Verificou-se que o isolado ACB-72 (B. subtilis e ACB-37 (T. pseudokoningii foram os que mais inibiram a germinação do patógeno. Quanto à produção de metabólitos termoestáveis, ACB-69 e 77 foram os mais eficientes em produzir substâncias antifúngicas, e em quantidades suficientes para inibirem a germinação do patógeno. A mistura dos quatro isolados de Bacillus (ACBs: 69; 72; 77 e AP3 foi o que apresentou maior porcentagem de inibição (73%. Os biofertilizantes (Bio1 e Bio2, em concentrações acima de 10% e, quando em associação com isolados de Trichoderma spp., promoveram maiores inibições na germinação de C. acutatum. Em testes com flores destacadas

  18. Bayesian Causal Induction

    CERN Document Server

    Ortega, Pedro A

    2011-01-01

    Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One possible reason is that humans use strong prior knowledge; and rather than encoding hard causal relationships, they encode beliefs over causal structures, allowing for sound generalization from the observations they obtain from directly acting in the world. In this work we propose a Bayesian approach to causal induction which allows modeling beliefs over multiple causal hypotheses and predicting the behavior of the world under causal interventions. We then illustrate how this method extracts causal information from data containing interventions and observations.

  19. The hygienic hypothesis and transformations in etiological knowledge: from causal ontology to ontogenesis of the body A hipótese higiênica e transformações etiológicas: da ontologia causal à ontogênese do corpo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Czeresnia

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to systematize the principal recent research results pertaining to the so-called hygienic hypothesis, which establishes an etiological link between the increasing incidence of allergic diseases and the decreasing incidence of infectious diseases in the industrialized countries of the Western world. The author contends that the current debate on the hygienic hypothesis indicates significant transformations in the understanding of disease etiology, perhaps even as important as the transformations in the 19th century during the process leading to the constitution of modern medicine and the identification of infectious disease causal agents.O objetivo deste artigo é de sistematizar os principais achados de pesquisa em relação à chamada hipótese higiênica, que estabelece um elo etiológico entre o aumento de incidência de doenças alérgicas e a incidência decrescente de doenças infecciosas nos países industrializados do Ocidente. O autor afirma que o debate atual sobre a hipótese higiênica revela transformações significativas na compreensão da etiologia das doenças, talvez tão importantes quanto as mudanças no século XIX que levaram à constituição da medicina moderna e à identificação dos agentes causais das doenças infecciosas.

  20. Causality for nonlocal phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Eckstein, Michał

    2015-01-01

    Drawing from the theory of optimal transport we propose a rigorous notion of a causal relation for Borel probability measures on a given spacetime. To prepare the ground, we explore the borderland between causality, topology and measure theory. We provide various characterisations of the proposed causal relation, which turn out to be equivalent if the underlying spacetime has a sufficiently robust causal structure. We also present the notion of the 'Lorentz-Wasserstein distance' and study its basic properties. Finally, we discuss how various results on causality in quantum theory, aggregated around Hegerfeldt's theorem, fit into our framework.

  1. In vivo sensitivity reduction of Puccinia triticina races, causal agent of wheat leaf rust, to DMI and QoI fungicides Redução da sensibilidade de raças de Puccinia triticina, agente causal da ferrugem da folha do trigo, aos fungicidas DMI e QoI, in vivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisele da Silva Arduim

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Experiments were carried out to determine in vivo the IC50 and the IC90 for demethylation-inhibitor fungicides (DMIs, triazoles and quinone outside inhibitors (QoIs, strobilurins to the five most frequent races of Puccinia triticina in 2007 growing season in Southern Brazil. The tests were done in a greenhouse with wheat seedlings. DMI fungicides were tested at the concentrations, in mg/L, 0.0; 0.02; 0.2; 2.0; 20.0; 100.0 and 200.0, and QoIs at the concentrations 0.0; 0.0001; 0.001; 0.01; 0.1; 1 and 10.0 mg of active ingredient/L water. Fungicides were preventively applied at 24 hours before the inoculation of seedlings with the fungal spores. The effect of treatments was assessed based on the number of uredia/cm². The lowest IC50 (inhibitory concentration for DMI fungicides determined for MCG-MN, sensitive race, ranged from 0.33 to 0.91 mg/L, while the highest values for MDP-MR, MDT-MR, MDK-MR, MFH-HT races, varied from 9.63 to 85.64 mg/L (suspected insensitivity. QoI fungicide presented an IC50 varying from 0.0018 to 0.14 mg/L. The sensitivity reduction factor for DMIs varied from 8.8 to 238.8, and for QoIs from 0.3 to 1.5 mg/L. Sensitivity reduction was confirmed for the races MDP-MR, MDT-MR, MDK-MR, MFH-HT to DMIs, as well as their sensitivity to QoI fungicides.Experimentos foram conduzidos para determinar, in vivo a IC50 e CI90 para fungicidas inibidores da demetilação (IDM(triazois e inibidores da quinona externa (IQe (estrobilurinas a cinco raças de Puccinia triticina mais frequentes na safra 2007, no Sul do Brasil. Os experimentos foram realizados em câmara de crescimento com plântulas de trigo. Os fungicidas IDMs foram testados nas concentrações em mg/L de 0,0; 0,02; 0,2; 2,0; 20,0; 100,0 e 200,0 e os IQes nas concentrações de 0,0; 0,0001; 0,001; 0,01; 0,1, 1 e 10,0 mg de ingrediente activo/L de água. Os fungicidas foram aplicados preventivamente 24 horas antes da inoculação das plântulas com os esporos do fungo. O efeito

  2. Energetic Causal Sets

    CERN Document Server

    Cortês, Marina

    2013-01-01

    We propose an approach to quantum theory based on the energetic causal sets, introduced in Cort\\^{e}s and Smolin (2013). Fundamental processes are causal sets whose events carry momentum and energy, which are transmitted along causal links and conserved at each event. Fundamentally there are amplitudes for such causal processes, but no space-time. An embedding of the causal processes in an emergent space-time arises only at the semiclassical level. Hence, fundamentally there are no commutation relations, no uncertainty principle and, indeed, no hbar. All that remains of quantum theory is the relationship between the absolute value squared of complex amplitudes and probabilities. Consequently, we find that neither locality, nor non locality, are primary concepts, only causality exists at the fundamental level.

  3. Análise de causalidade da relação entre sangramento e letalidade de Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas Causality analysis of the relationship between bleeding and lethality in Acute Coronary Syndromes

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    Luis Cláudio Lemos Correia

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available FUNDAMENTO: Eventos hemorrágicos em Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas (SCA apresentam associação independente com óbito em registros multicêntricos internacionais. No entanto, essa associação não foi testada em nosso meio e a verdadeira relação causal entre sangramento e óbito não está plenamente demonstrada. OBJETIVO: Testar as hipóteses de que: (1 sangramento maior é preditor independente de óbito hospitalar em SCA; (2 a relação entre esses dois desfechos é causal. MÉTODOS: Incluídos pacientes com critérios pré-definidos de angina instável, infarto sem supradesnivelamento do ST ou infarto com supradesnivelamento do ST. Sangramento maior durante o internamento foi definido de acordo com os tipos 3 ou 5 da Classificação Universal de Sangramento. Regressão logística e análise da sequência de eventos foram utilizadas para avaliar a associação entre sangramento e óbito. RESULTADOS: Dentre 455 pacientes estudados, 29 desenvolveram sangramento maior (6,4%; 95%IC = 4,3-9,0%. Esses indivíduos apresentaram mortalidade hospitalar de 21%, comparados a 5,6% nos pacientes sem sangramento (RR = 4,0; 95%IC = 1,8-9,1; P = 0,001. Após ajuste para escore de propensão, sangramento maior permaneceu preditor de óbito hospitalar (OR = 3,34; 95%IC = 1,2-9,5; P = 0,02. Houve 6 óbitos dentre 29 pacientes que sangraram. No entanto, análise detalhada da sequência de eventos demonstrou relação causal em apenas um caso. CONCLUSÃO: (1 Sangramento maior é preditor independente de óbito hospitalar em SCA; (2 O papel do sangramento como marcador de risco predomina sobre seu papel de fator de risco para óbito. Essa conclusão deve ser vista como geradora de hipótese a ser confirmada por estudos de maior tamanho amostral. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2012; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic events in Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS have been independently associated with death in international multicenter registries. However, that

  4. Causal Decision Trees

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Causal relationships are normally discovered with designed experiments, e.g. randomised controlled trials, which, however are expensive or infeasible to be conducted in many cases. Causal relationships can also be found using some well designed observational studies, but they require domain experts' knowledge and the process is normally time consuming. Hence there is a need for scalable and automated methods for c...

  5. How to be causal

    CERN Document Server

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential eqations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature in the sense used here should be obvious to all. In particular, I apply this reasoning to Maxwell's equations, which is an instructive example since their casual properties are sometimes debated.

  6. Caracterização molecular e patogênica de isolados de Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby) Dowson, agente causal da escaldadura das folhas da cana-de-açúcar

    OpenAIRE

    Mariana de Souza e Silva; Bedendo,Ivan Paulo; Casagrande,Marcos Virgílio

    2007-01-01

    A escaldadura das folhas, causada pela bactéria Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby) Dowson, é uma das cinco doenças mais importantes da cana-de-açúcar e sua ocorrência reduz o rendimento e a longevidade da cultura. Variedades resistentes têm sido usadas para o controle, porém há evidências da ocorrência de variantes do patógeno. Em campos comerciais do Estado de São Paulo, tem sido observado que a mesma variedade de cana se apresenta como resistente em uma região e suscetível em outra, sugerindo ...

  7. Labiomec, una alternativa en el control de la sarna cunícula (Labiomec, an alternative in the control of rabbit scabies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raciel Lima Orozco

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo se realizó en la Conejera del Módulo Pecuario de la Cooperativa de Producción Agropecuaria (CPA “Niceto Pérez” de Jinaguayabo Municipio de Caibarién, Provincia Villa Clara donde se trataron 245 animales. De ellos, 21 reproductora, 1 semental, 3 futuros sementales y 220 gazapos-crecimiento-desarrollo; durante el periodo comprendido del 15 de junio del 2003 al 15 de abril del 2004. La fase experimental se dividió en dos etapas: la primera, del 15 de junio del 2003 al 15 de marzo del 2004 (dividida en tres grupos; el grupo 1 se inoculó Labiomec (ivermectina al 10% por vía SC y en dosis de 0.1 mg /libra de Peso Vivo (PV (0.2 mg /kg; se aplicó dipterex mezclado con grasa automotor al 1% al grupo 2, y el grupo tres como control (aplicándole pedifor (principio activo lindano. La segunda etapa transcurrió del 15 de diciembre del 2003 al 15 de abril del 2004; donde se aplicó en casos de sarna Labiomec por vía SC y en dosis de 0.1 mg/ libra de PV (0.2 mg /kg a toda la masa (excepto las gestantes y a los que estaban en experimento. Los resultados fueron analizados por los sistemas computarizados y estadísticos Excel y Statgraphics Plus 4.1; utilizando la prueba de comparación de medias y análisis de proporciones (modelo binomial de comparación de proporciones en este último; para los casos donde se encontró diferencia significativa se utilizó la prueba de Duncan (1955. Los parámetros analizados fueron: ganancia media diaria (gmd, control de la infección y costos por tratamientos de los diferentes productos utilizados. La administración de Labiomec posibilitó una mayor gmd (16 g para p < 0.01 al ser comparado con los tratamientos dos (11 g y tres (13 g, además, durante el periodo bajo estudio (9 meses solo hubo la necesidad de hacer 3 aplicaciones de Labiomec (una por trimestre mientras que para los tratamientos dos y tres se elevó a 180 y 108 administraciones, respectivamente. Económicamente el labiomec permite

  8. Editorial: Causal cognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaisdell, A.P.; Beckers, T.

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including one on psychological approaches to causal discovery in humans, one on the representational and reasoning capacities that underlie causal cognition in rats and one on the generality of knowledge of Great Ape.

  9. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  10. Causality and Lifshitz Holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koroteev, Peter [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, 116 Church Street S.E., Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    We study signal propagation in theories with Lifshitz scaling using the gravity dual and show that backgrounds with z<1 are incompatible with causality of the strongly coupled theory. We argue that causality violations in z<1 theories show up in boundary correlation functions as superluminal modes.

  11. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours...... to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

  12. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari;

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied...... to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...... implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets...

  13. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  14. Regression to Causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

    2014-01-01

    Humans are fundamentally primed for making causal attributions based on correlations. This implies that researchers must be careful to present their results in a manner that inhibits unwarranted causal attribution. In this paper, we present the results of an experiment that suggests regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...

  15. Caracterização molecular e patogênica de isolados de Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby) Dowson, agente causal da escaldadura das folhas da cana-de-açúcar Molecular and pathogenic characterization of isolates of Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby) Dowson, causal agent of sugarcane leaf scald

    OpenAIRE

    Mariana de Souza e Silva; Ivan Paulo Bedendo; Marcos Virgílio Casagrande

    2007-01-01

    A escaldadura das folhas, causada pela bactéria Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby) Dowson, é uma das cinco doenças mais importantes da cana-de-açúcar e sua ocorrência reduz o rendimento e a longevidade da cultura. Variedades resistentes têm sido usadas para o controle, porém há evidências da ocorrência de variantes do patógeno. Em campos comerciais do Estado de São Paulo, tem sido observado que a mesma variedade de cana se apresenta como resistente em uma região e suscetível em outra, sugerindo ...

  16. EFECTO SOBRE LA SARNA POLVOSA DE CUATRO AISLAMIENTOS DEL HONGO Trichoderma asperellum EN TRES TIPOS DE SUELO EFFECT ON THE POWDERY SCAB OF FOUR ISOLATES OF THE FUNGUS Trichoderma asperellum IN THREE TYPES OF SOILS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Gilchrist

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available El protozoario Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea es un parásito obligado que replica en raíces y tubérculos de papa causando la sarna polvosa. Esta enfermedad se ha difundido a escala global debido al comercio de tubérculos-semilla infectados y a la ausencia de tratamientos efectivos. En este trabajo se investigó la influencia sobre la sarna polvosa de cuatro aislamientos de Trichoderma asperellum en tres tipos de suelo: Andisol, Entisol e Inceptisol. Tubérculos de Solanum tuberosum variedad Diacol Capiro fueron plantados en parcelas infectadas con 1942 ± 226 quistosoros por gramo de suelo. No se observaron diferencias entre las plantas tratadas y no tratadas con T. asperellum. La superficie de raíz ocupada por agallas fue en promedio 2,2%, sin encontrarse diferencias significativas (PThe protozoan Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea is an obligate parasite that replicates in roots and tubers of potato causing the powdery scab. This disease has disseminated on a global scale, because the commercial traffic of infected tubers used as seed and the absence of effective treatments. The present work investigated the effects of four isolates of Trichoderma asperellum in three soil types: Andisol, Entisol and Inceptisol. The soils were infected with 1942 ± 226 cystosori per gram of soil. It was used Solanum tuberosum variety Diacol Capiro. No differences were observed between treated and non treated plants with T. asperellum. The root surface affected by galls was an average of 2.2 %, and no significant differences (p<0.05 were observed among the soils. The reduction of plant growth was of 41, 32 and 28 % for the Andisol, Entisol and Inceptisol, respectively. The reduction in tubers production was of 40, 28 and 0,1% for the Andisol, Entisol and Inceptisol, respectively. Similar percent of root surface covered with galls resulted in production reduction of 40%, but also of 0,1%, indicating the necessity of other methods to

  17. Causally symmetric spacetimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipler, F.J.

    1977-08-01

    Causally symmetric spacetimes are spacetimes with J/sup +/(S) isometric to J/sup -/(S) for some set S. We discuss certain properties of these spacetimes, showing for example that, if S is a maximal Cauchy surface with matter everywhere on S, then the spacetime has singularities in both J/sup +/(S) and J/sup -/(S). We also consider totally vicious spacetimes, a class of causally symmetric spacetimes for which I/sup +/(p) =I/sup -/(p) = M for any point p in M. Two different notions of stability in general relativity are discussed, using various types of causally symmetric spacetimes as starting points for perturbations.

  18. Causal Newton Gravity Law

    CERN Document Server

    Zinoviev, Yury M

    2012-01-01

    The equations of the relativistic causal Newton gravity law for the planets of the solar system are studied in the approximation when the Sun rests at the coordinates origin and the planets do not iteract between each other.

  19. Causal spin foams

    CERN Document Server

    Immirzi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    I discuss how to impose causality on spin-foam models, separating forward and backward propagation, turning a given triangulation to a 'causal set', and giving asymptotically the exponential of the Regge action, not a cosine. I show the equivalence of the prescriptions which have been proposed to achieve this. Essential to the argument is the closure condition for the 4-simplices, all made of space-like tetrahedra.

  20. Quantum Causal Graph Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Consider a graph having quantum systems lying at each node. Suppose that the whole thing evolves in discrete time steps, according to a global, unitary causal operator. By causal we mean that information can only propagate at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. Suppose, moreover, that the graph itself is subject to the evolution, and may be driven to be in a quantum superposition of graphs---in accordance to the superposition principle. We show that these unitary causal operators must decompose as a finite-depth circuit of local unitary gates. This unifies a result on Quantum Cellular Automata with another on Reversible Causal Graph Dynamics. Along the way we formalize a notion of causality which is valid in the context of quantum superpositions of time-varying graphs, and has a number of good properties. Keywords: Quantum Lattice Gas Automata, Block-representation, Curtis-Hedlund-Lyndon, No-signalling, Localizability, Quantum Gravity, Quantum Graphity, Causal Dynamical Triangula...

  1. Study design in causal models

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described precisely. Causal models with design describe the study design and the missing data mechanism together with the causal structure and allow the direct application of causal calculus in the estimation of the causal effects. The flow of the study is visualized by orde...

  2. Biased causal inseparable game

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, Some Sankar

    2015-01-01

    Here we study the \\emph{causal inseparable} game introduced in [\\href{http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v3/n10/full/ncomms2076.html}{Nat. Commun. {\\bf3}, 1092 (2012)}], but it's biased version. Two separated parties, Alice and Bob, generate biased bits (say input bit) in their respective local laboratories. Bob generates another biased bit (say decision bit) which determines their goal: whether Alice has to guess Bob's bit or vice-verse. Under the assumption that events are ordered with respect to some global causal relation, we show that the success probability of this biased causal game is upper bounded, giving rise to \\emph{biased causal inequality} (BCI). In the \\emph{process matrix} formalism, which is locally in agreement with quantum physics but assume no global causal order, we show that there exist \\emph{inseparable} process matrices that violate the BCI for arbitrary bias in the decision bit. In such scenario we also derive the maximal violation of the BCI under local operations involving tracele...

  3. Causality discovery technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  4. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  5. Causal graph dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Arrighi, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    We generalize the theory of Cellular Automata to arbitrary, time-varying graphs. In other words we formalize, and prove theorems about, the intuitive idea of a labelled graph which evolves in time - but under the natural constraint that information can only ever be transmitted at a bounded speed, with respect to the distance given by the graph. The notion of translation-invariance is also generalized. The definition we provide for these `causal graph dynamics' is simple and axiomatic. The theorems we provide also show that it is robust. For instance, causal graph dynamics are stable under composition and under restriction to radius one. In the finite case some fundamental facts of Cellular Automata theory carry through: causal graph dynamics admit a characterization as continuous functions and they are stable under inversion. The provided examples suggest a wide range of applications of this mathematical object, from complex systems science to theoretical physics. Keywords: Dynamical networks, Boolean network...

  6. Complementarity, causality, and explanation

    CERN Document Server

    Losee, John

    2013-01-01

    Prior to the work of Niels Bohr, discussions on the relationship of cause and effect presupposed that successful causal attribution implies explanation. The success of quantum theory challenged this presupposition. In this succinct review of the history of these discussions, John Losee presents the philosophical background of debates over the cause-effect relation. He reviews the positions of Aristotle, René Descartes, Isaac Newton, David Hume, Immanuel Kant, and John Stuart Mill. He shows how nineteenth-century theories in physics and chemistry were informed by a dominant theory of causality

  7. Causal premise semantics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Stefan

    2013-08-01

    The rise of causality and the attendant graph-theoretic modeling tools in the study of counterfactual reasoning has had resounding effects in many areas of cognitive science, but it has thus far not permeated the mainstream in linguistic theory to a comparable degree. In this study I show that a version of the predominant framework for the formal semantic analysis of conditionals, Kratzer-style premise semantics, allows for a straightforward implementation of the crucial ideas and insights of Pearl-style causal networks. I spell out the details of such an implementation, focusing especially on the notions of intervention on a network and backtracking interpretations of counterfactuals.

  8. Understanding Causal Coherence Relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, G.

    2008-01-01

    The research reported in this dissertation focuses on the cognitive processes and representations involved in understanding causal coherence relations in text. Coherence relations are the meaning relations between the information units in the text, such as Cause-Consequence. These relations can be m

  9. Causality: Physics and Philosophy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Atanu

    2013-01-01

    Nature is a complex causal network exhibiting diverse forms and species. These forms or rather systems are physically open, structurally complex and naturally adaptive. They interact with the surrounding media by operating a positive-feedback loop through which, they adapt, organize and self-organize themselves in response to the ever-changing…

  10. Caracterização molecular e patogênica de isolados de Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby Dowson, agente causal da escaldadura das folhas da cana-de-açúcar Molecular and pathogenic characterization of isolates of Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby Dowson, causal agent of sugarcane leaf scald

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana de Souza e Silva

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available A escaldadura das folhas, causada pela bactéria Xanthomonas albilineans (Ashby Dowson, é uma das cinco doenças mais importantes da cana-de-açúcar e sua ocorrência reduz o rendimento e a longevidade da cultura. Variedades resistentes têm sido usadas para o controle, porém há evidências da ocorrência de variantes do patógeno. Em campos comerciais do Estado de São Paulo, tem sido observado que a mesma variedade de cana se apresenta como resistente em uma região e suscetível em outra, sugerindo a ocorrência de variantes na população do patógeno. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar a presença de diversidade genética da bactéria em áreas comerciais. Um total de 50 isolados foram obtidos em cultura pura a partir de plantas sintomáticas coletadas em Piracicaba (SP, Jaú (SP, região de Ribeirão Preto (SP e Iturama (MG. Os isolados foram confirmados como pertencentes à espécie X. albilineans por meio de características de colônias, serologia e PCR com 'primers' específicos. Para caracterização da diversidade genética, foi usado o método de Rep-PCR, a partir do DNA extraído de cada isolado. Oito isolados, provenientes dos diferentes grupos identificados por rep-PCR, foram usados em testes de patogenicidade, por meio de inoculação em duas variedades de cana. Os resultados confirmaram todos os isolados como pertencentes à espécie X. albilineans. Por meio de rep-PCR, foi demonstrada diversidade genética entre os isolados, os quais foram separados em três grupos: um grupo composto somente pelos isolados de Piracicaba; um segundo, contendo todos os isolados amostrados em Jaú e na região de Ribeirão Preto, e um isolado de Iturama; e, no terceiro, somente dois isolados coletados em Iturama. Os testes de patogenicidade revelaram diferenças na agressividade entre isolados, porém sem relação com sua região de origem. Este trabalho revelou a ocorrência de diversidade genética e de agressividade dentro da

  11. Causal diagrams for physical models

    CERN Document Server

    Kinsler, Paul

    2015-01-01

    I present a scheme of drawing causal diagrams based on physically motivated mathematical models expressed in terms of temporal differential equations. They provide a means of better understanding the processes and causal relationships contained within such systems.

  12. Information causality and noisy computations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsu, Li-Yi [Department of Physics, Chung Yuan Christian University, Chung-li 32023, Taiwan (China); Yu, I-Ching; Lin, Feng-Li [Department of Physics, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 116, Taiwan (China)

    2011-10-15

    We reformulate the information causality in a more general framework by adopting the results of signal propagation and computation in a noisy circuit. In our framework, the information causality leads to a broad class of Tsirelson inequalities. This fact allows us to subject information causality to experimental scrutiny. A no-go theorem for reliable nonlocal computation is also derived. Information causality prevents any physical circuit from performing reliable computations.

  13. Spectral Geometry and Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Kopf, T

    1996-01-01

    For a physical interpretation of a theory of quantum gravity, it is necessary to recover classical spacetime, at least approximately. However, quantum gravity may eventually provide classical spacetimes by giving spectral data similar to those appearing in noncommutative geometry, rather than by giving directly a spacetime manifold. It is shown that a globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifold can be given by spectral data. A new phenomenon in the context of spectral geometry is observed: causal relationships. The employment of the causal relationships of spectral data is shown to lead to a highly efficient description of Lorentzian manifolds, indicating the possible usefulness of this approach. Connections to free quantum field theory are discussed for both motivation and physical interpretation. It is conjectured that the necessary spectral data can be generically obtained from an effective field theory having the fundamental structures of generalized quantum mechanics: a decoherence functional and a choice of...

  14. Quantum information causality

    OpenAIRE

    Pitalúa-García, Damián

    2012-01-01

    How much information can a transmitted physical system fundamentally communicate? We introduce the principle of quantum information causality, which states the maximum amount of quantum information that a quantum system can communicate as a function of its dimension, independently of any previously shared quantum physical resources. We present a new quantum information task, whose success probability is upper bounded by the new principle, and show that an optimal strategy to perform it combin...

  15. Causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2014-01-01

    Given two time series, can one tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion namely information flow, we arrive at a concise formula and give this challenging question, which is of wide concern in different disciplines, a positive answer. Here causality is measured by the time rate of change of information flowing from one series, say, X2, to another, X1. The measure is asymmetric between the two parties and, particularly, if the process underlying X1 does not depend on X2, then the resulting causality from X2 to X1 vanishes. The formula is tight in form, involving only the commonly used statistics, sample covariances. It has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality. It has also been applied to the investigation of real world problems; an example presented here is the cause-effect relation between two climate modes, El Ni\\~no and Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been linked to the hazards in f...

  16. Revisiting Causality in Markov Chains

    CERN Document Server

    Shojaee, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    Identifying causal relationships is a key premise of scientific research. The growth of observational data in different disciplines along with the availability of machine learning methods offers the possibility of using an empirical approach to identifying potential causal relationships, to deepen our understandings of causal behavior and to build theories accordingly. Conventional methods of causality inference from observational data require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause-effect relationship. We find that potential causal relationships can be inferred from the composition of one step transition rates to and from an event. Also known as Markov chain, one step transition rates are a commonly available resource in different scientific disciplines. Here we introduce a simple, effective and computationally efficient method that we termed 'Causality Inference using Composition of Transitions CICT' to reveal causal structure with high accuracy. We characterize the differences in causes,...

  17. Quantum Fields on Causal Sets

    CERN Document Server

    Johnston, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Causal set theory provides a model of discrete spacetime in which spacetime events are represented by elements of a causal set---a locally finite, partially ordered set in which the partial order represents the causal relationships between events. The work presented here describes a model for matter on a causal set, specifically a theory of quantum scalar fields on a causal set spacetime background. The work starts with a discrete path integral model for particles on a causal set. Here quantum mechanical amplitudes are assigned to trajectories within the causal set. By summing these over all trajectories between two spacetime events we obtain a causal set particle propagator. With a suitable choice of amplitudes this is shown to agree (in an appropriate sense) with the retarded propagator for the Klein-Gordon equation in Minkowski spacetime. This causal set propagator is then used to define a causal set analogue of the Pauli-Jordan function that appears in continuum quantum field theories. A quantum scalar fi...

  18. Entropy of Causal Horizons

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, Eric M

    2016-01-01

    We analyze spacetimes with horizons and study the thermodynamic aspects of causal horizons, suggesting that the resemblance between gravitational and thermodynamic systems has a deeper quantum mechanical origin. We find that the observer dependence of such horizons is a direct consequence of associating a temperature and entropy to a spacetime. The geometrical picture of a horizon acting as a one-way membrane for information flow can be accepted as a natural interpretation of assigning a quantum field theory to a spacetime with boundary, ultimately leading to a close connection with thermodynamics.

  19. Quantum information causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitalúa-García, Damián

    2013-05-24

    How much information can a transmitted physical system fundamentally communicate? We introduce the principle of quantum information causality, which states the maximum amount of quantum information that a quantum system can communicate as a function of its dimension, independently of any previously shared quantum physical resources. We present a new quantum information task, whose success probability is upper bounded by the new principle, and show that an optimal strategy to perform it combines the quantum teleportation and superdense coding protocols with a task that has classical inputs.

  20. Causality and Micro-Causality in Curved Spacetime

    OpenAIRE

    Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M.

    2007-01-01

    We consider how causality and micro-causality are realised in QED in curved spacetime. The photon propagator is found to exhibit novel non-analytic behaviour due to vacuum polarization, which invalidates the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relation and calls into question the validity of micro-causality in curved spacetime. This non-analyticity is ultimately related to the generic focusing nature of congruences of geodesics in curved spacetime, as implied by the null energy condition, and the exist...

  1. Causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagemans, Johan; de-Wit, Lee

    2017-01-01

    Philosophers have long argued that causality cannot be directly observed but requires a conscious inference (Hume, 1967). Albert Michotte however developed numerous visual phenomena in which people seemed to perceive causality akin to primary visual properties like colour or motion (Michotte, 1946). Michotte claimed that the perception of causality did not require a conscious, deliberate inference but, working over 70 years ago, he did not have access to the experimental methods to test this claim. Here we employ Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS)—an interocular suppression technique to render stimuli invisible (Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005)—to test whether causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events. We presented observers with ‘causal’ and ‘non-causal’ events, and found consistent evidence that participants become aware of causal events more rapidly than non-causal events. Our results suggest that, whilst causality must be inferred from sensory evidence, this inference might be computed at low levels of perceptual processing, and does not depend on a deliberative conscious evaluation of the stimulus. This work therefore supports Michotte’s contention that, like colour or motion, causality is an immediate property of our perception of the world. PMID:28149698

  2. Dynamic causal modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, K J; Harrison, L; Penny, W

    2003-08-01

    In this paper we present an approach to the identification of nonlinear input-state-output systems. By using a bilinear approximation to the dynamics of interactions among states, the parameters of the implicit causal model reduce to three sets. These comprise (1) parameters that mediate the influence of extrinsic inputs on the states, (2) parameters that mediate intrinsic coupling among the states, and (3) [bilinear] parameters that allow the inputs to modulate that coupling. Identification proceeds in a Bayesian framework given known, deterministic inputs and the observed responses of the system. We developed this approach for the analysis of effective connectivity using experimentally designed inputs and fMRI responses. In this context, the coupling parameters correspond to effective connectivity and the bilinear parameters reflect the changes in connectivity induced by inputs. The ensuing framework allows one to characterise fMRI experiments, conceptually, as an experimental manipulation of integration among brain regions (by contextual or trial-free inputs, like time or attentional set) that is revealed using evoked responses (to perturbations or trial-bound inputs, like stimuli). As with previous analyses of effective connectivity, the focus is on experimentally induced changes in coupling (cf., psychophysiologic interactions). However, unlike previous approaches in neuroimaging, the causal model ascribes responses to designed deterministic inputs, as opposed to treating inputs as unknown and stochastic.

  3. Relationship of causal effects in a causal chain and related inference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GENG Zhi; HE Yangbo; WANG Xueli

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationship among the total causal effect and local causal effects in a causal chain and identifiability of causal effects. We show a transmission relationship of causal effects in a causal chain. According to the relationship, we give an approach to eliminating confounding bias through controlling for intermediate variables in a causal chain.

  4. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect.

  5. Experimental test of nonlocal causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  6. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  7. Causal evolution of wave packets

    CERN Document Server

    Eckstein, Michał

    2016-01-01

    Drawing from the optimal transport theory adapted to the relativistic setting we formulate the principle of a causal flow of probability and apply it in the wave packet formalism. We demonstrate that whereas the Dirac system is causal, the relativistic-Schr\\"odinger Hamiltonian impels a superluminal evolution of probabilities. We quantify the causality breakdown in the latter system and argue that, in contrast to the popular viewpoint, it is not related to the localisation properties of the states.

  8. Granger causality for circular variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelini, Leonardo; Pellicoro, Mario [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari (Italy); Dipartimento di Fisica, University of Bari (Italy); Stramaglia, Sebastiano, E-mail: sebastiano.stramaglia@ba.infn.i [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Bari (Italy); Dipartimento di Fisica, University of Bari (Italy)

    2009-06-29

    In this Letter we discuss the use of Granger causality to the analyze systems of coupled circular variables, by modifying a recently proposed method for multivariate analysis of causality. We show the application of the proposed approach on several Kuramoto systems, in particular one living on networks built by preferential attachment and a model for the transition from deeply to lightly anaesthetized states. Granger causalities describe the flow of information among variables.

  9. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  10. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  11. The Cradle of Causal Reasoning: Newborns' Preference for Physical Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

    2013-01-01

    Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we…

  12. Identifiability of causal effect for a simple causal model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑忠国; 张艳艳; 童行伟

    2002-01-01

    Counterfactual model is put forward to discuss the causal inference in the directed acyclic graph and its corresponding identifiability is thus studied with the ancillary information based on conditional independence. It is shown that the assumption of ignorability can be expanded to the assumption of replaceability,under which the causal efiects are identifiable.

  13. Inferring deterministic causal relations

    CERN Document Server

    Daniusis, Povilas; Mooij, Joris; Zscheischler, Jakob; Steudel, Bastian; Zhang, Kun; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    We consider two variables that are related to each other by an invertible function. While it has previously been shown that the dependence structure of the noise can provide hints to determine which of the two variables is the cause, we presently show that even in the deterministic (noise-free) case, there are asymmetries that can be exploited for causal inference. Our method is based on the idea that if the function and the probability density of the cause are chosen independently, then the distribution of the effect will, in a certain sense, depend on the function. We provide a theoretical analysis of this method, showing that it also works in the low noise regime, and link it to information geometry. We report strong empirical results on various real-world data sets from different domains.

  14. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  15. Theory-Based Causal Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2009-01-01

    Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in scientific inference, statistics, and machine learning. It is also a central part of human learning, and a task that people perform remarkably well given its notorious difficulties. People can learn causal structure in various settings, from diverse forms of data: observations…

  16. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  17. Introduction to causal dynamical triangulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Görlich, Andrzej

    2013-01-01

    The method of causal dynamical triangulations is a non-perturbative and background-independent approach to quantum theory of gravity. In this review we present recent results obtained within the four dimensional model of causal dynamical triangulations. We describe the phase structure of the mode...

  18. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    2015-01-01

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the es

  19. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  20. On causality of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  1. On causality of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available. PMID:27330866

  2. CausalTrail: Testing hypothesis using causal Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckel, Daniel; Schmidt, Florian; Trampert, Patrick; Lenhof, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail.

  3. Clear message for causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Aephraim M. [Institute for Experimental Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2003-12-01

    Experiment confirms that information cannot be transmitted faster than the speed of light. Ever since Einstein stated that nothing can travel faster than light, physicists have delighted in finding exceptions. One after another, observations of such 'superluminal' propagation have been made. However, while some image or pattern- such as the motion of a spotlight projected on a distant wall - might have appeared to travel faster than light, it seemed that there was no way to use the superluminal effect to transmit energy or information. In recent years, the superluminal propagation of light pulses through certain media has led to renewed controversy. In 1995, for example, Guenther Nimtz of the University of Cologne encoded Mozart's 40th Symphony on a microwave beam, which he claimed to have transmitted at a speed faster than light. Others maintain that such a violation of Einstein's speed limit would wreak havoc on our most fundamental ideas about causality, allowing an effect to precede its cause. Relativity teaches us that sending a signal faster than light would be equivalent to sending it backwards in time. (U.K.)

  4. History, causality, and sexology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Money, John

    2003-08-01

    In 1896, Krafft-Ebing published Psychopathia Sexualis. Popularly defined as hereditary weakness or taintedness in the family pedigree, degeneracy was called upon as a causal explanation for perversions of the sexual instinct. Although Krafft-Ebing accepted Karl Ulrichs proposal that homosexuality could be innate and probably located in the brain, he paid little attention to neuropathological sexology. Alfred Binet challenged Krafft-Ebing's orthodoxy by explaining fetishism in terms of associative learning, to which Krafft-Ebing's response was that only those with a hereditary taint would be vulnerable. Thus did the venerable nature-nurture antithesis maintain its rhetoric, even to the present day. Krafft-Ebing died too soon to meet the Freudian challenge of endopsychic determinism, and too soon also to encounter the idea of a developmental multivariate outcome of what I have termed the lovemap. Like other brain maps, for example the languagemap, the lovemap requires an intact human brain in which to develop. The personalized content of the lovemap has access to the brain by way of the special senses.

  5. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

  6. On causality of extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect both linear and non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task.

  7. Fluctuations in Relativistic Causal Hydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Avdhesh; Mishra, Ananta P

    2013-01-01

    The formalism to calculate the hydrodynamics fluctuation using the quasi-stationary fluctuation theory of Onsager to the relativistic Navier-Stokes hydrodynamics is already known. In this work we calculate hydrodynamic fluctuations in relativistic causal theory of Muller, Israel and Stewart and other related causal hydrodynamic theories. We show that expressions for the Onsager coefficients and the correlation functions have form similar to the ones obtained by using Navier-Stokes equation. However, temporal evolution of the correlation functions obtained using MIS and the other causal theories can be significantly different than the correlation functions obtained using the Navier-Stokes equation. Finally, as an illustrative example, we explicitly plot the correlation functions obtained using the causal-hydrodynamics theories and compare them with correlation functions obtained by earlier authors using the expanding boost-invariant (Bjorken) flows.

  8. Correlation Measure Equivalence in Dynamic Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Gyongyosi, Laszlo

    2016-01-01

    We prove an equivalence transformation between the correlation measure functions of the causally-unbiased quantum gravity space and the causally-biased standard space. The theory of quantum gravity fuses the dynamic (nonfixed) causal structure of general relativity and the quantum uncertainty of quantum mechanics. In a quantum gravity space, the events are causally nonseparable and all time bias vanishes, which makes it no possible to use the standard causally-biased entropy and the correlation measure functions. Since a corrected causally-unbiased entropy function leads to an undefined, obscure mathematical structure, in our approach the correction is made in the data representation of the causally-unbiased space. We prove that the standard causally-biased entropy function with a data correction can be used to identify correlations in dynamic causal structures. As a corollary, all mathematical properties of the causally-biased correlation measure functions are preserved in the causally-unbiased space. The eq...

  9. Causality constraints on TMD PDF

    CERN Document Server

    Efremov, A V

    2013-01-01

    In this short note, we discuss constraints on the transverse momentum dependent factorization formulae coming from the causality properties for the hadronic tensor. We show that the range of definition of the TMD PDFs in the transverse coordinate plane is wider that it is allowed by the causality. It indicates the presents of the large compensating corrections for the TMD PDF factorization theorem and/or overestimation of the transverse component dependence of TMD PDF.

  10. An introduction to causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2010-02-26

    This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underlie all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: those about (1) the effects of potential interventions, (2) probabilities of counterfactuals, and (3) direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation.

  11. Causality and Tense - two temporal structure builders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oversteegen, E.

    2005-01-01

    By force of causes precede effects, causality contributes to the temporal meaning of discourse. In case of semantic causal relations, this contribution is straightforward, but in case of epistemic causal relations, it is not. In order to gain insight into the semantics of epistemic causal relations,

  12. Causal Stability Conditions for General Relativistic Spacetimes

    CERN Document Server

    Howard, E M

    2016-01-01

    A brief overview of some open questions in general relativity with important consequences for causality theory is presented, aiming to a better understanding of the causal structure of the spacetime. Special attention is accorded to the problem of fundamental causal stability conditions. Several questions are raised and some of the potential consequences of recent results regarding the causality problem in general relativity are presented. A key question is whether causality violating regions are locally allowed. The new concept of almost stable causality is introduced; meanwhile, related conditions and criteria for the stability and almost stability of the causal structure are discussed.

  13. Causality in physiological signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Andreas; Kraemer, Jan F; Penzel, Thomas; Bonnemeier, Hendrik; Kurths, Jürgen; Wessel, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Health is one of the most important non-material assets and thus also has an enormous influence on material values, since treating and preventing diseases is expensive. The number one cause of death worldwide today originates in cardiovascular diseases. For these reasons the aim of understanding the functions and the interactions of the cardiovascular system is and has been a major research topic throughout various disciplines for more than a hundred years. The purpose of most of today's research is to get as much information as possible with the lowest possible effort and the least discomfort for the subject or patient, e.g. via non-invasive measurements. A family of tools whose importance has been growing during the last years is known under the headline of coupling measures. The rationale for this kind of analysis is to identify the structure of interactions in a system of multiple components. Important information lies for example in the coupling direction, the coupling strength, and occurring time lags. In this work, we will, after a brief general introduction covering the development of cardiovascular time series analysis, introduce, explain and review some of the most important coupling measures and classify them according to their origin and capabilities in the light of physiological analyses. We will begin with classical correlation measures, go via Granger-causality-based tools, entropy-based techniques (e.g. momentary information transfer), nonlinear prediction measures (e.g. mutual prediction) to symbolic dynamics (e.g. symbolic coupling traces). All these methods have contributed important insights into physiological interactions like cardiorespiratory coupling, neuro-cardio-coupling and many more. Furthermore, we will cover tools to detect and analyze synchronization and coordination (e.g. synchrogram and coordigram). As a last point we will address time dependent couplings as identified using a recent approach employing ensembles of time series. The

  14. Human causal discovery from observational data.

    OpenAIRE

    1996-01-01

    Utilizing Bayesian belief networks as a model of causality, we examined medical students' ability to discover causal relationships from observational data. Nine sets of patient cases were generated from relatively simple causal belief networks by stochastic simulation. Twenty participants examined the data sets and attempted to discover the underlying causal relationships. Performance was poor in general, except at discovering the absence of a causal relationship. This work supports the poten...

  15. The Geometry of Small Causal Cones

    CERN Document Server

    Jubb, Ian

    2016-01-01

    We derive a formula for the spacetime volume of a small causal cone. We use this formula within the context of causal set theory to construct causal set expressions for certain geometric quantities relating to a spacetime with a spacelike hypersurface. We also consider a scalar field on the causal set, and obtain causal set expressions relating to its normal derivatives with respect to the hypersurface.

  16. Causality and Primordial Tensor Modes

    CERN Document Server

    Baumann, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    We introduce the real space correlation function of $B$-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a probe of superhorizon tensor perturbations created by inflation. By causality, any non-inflationary mechanism for gravitational wave production after reheating, like global phase transitions or cosmic strings, must have vanishing correlations for angular separations greater than the angle subtended by the particle horizon at recombination, i.e. $\\theta \\gtrsim 2^\\circ$. Since ordinary $B$-modes are defined non-locally in terms of the Stokes parameters $Q$ and $U$ and therefore don't have to respect causality, special care is taken to define `causal $\\tilde B$-modes' for the analysis. We compute the real space $\\tilde B$-mode correlation function for inflation and discuss its detectability on superhorizon scales where it provides an unambiguous test of inflationary gravitational waves. The correct identification of inflationary tensor modes is crucial since it relates directly to the energy s...

  17. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  18. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  19. Causal Models for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neysis Hernández Díaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work a study about the process of risk management in major schools in the world. The project management tools worldwide highlights the need to redefine risk management processes. From the information obtained it is proposed the use of causal models for risk analysis based on information from the project or company, say risks and the influence thereof on the costs, human capital and project requirements and detect the damages of a number of tasks without tribute to the development of the project. A study on the use of causal models as knowledge representation techniques causal, among which are the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (DCM and Bayesian networks, with the most favorable MCD technique to use because it allows modeling the risk information witho ut having a knowledge base either itemize.

  20. Gravitation, Causality, and Quantum Consistency

    CERN Document Server

    Hertzberg, Mark P

    2016-01-01

    We examine the role of consistency with causality and quantum mechanics in determining the properties of gravitation. We begin by constructing two different classes of interacting theories of massless spin 2 particles -- gravitons. One involves coupling the graviton with the lowest number of derivatives to matter, the other involves coupling the graviton with higher derivatives to matter, making use of the linearized Riemann tensor. The first class requires an infinite tower of terms for consistency, which is known to lead uniquely to general relativity. The second class only requires a finite number of terms for consistency, which appears as a new class of theories of massless spin 2. We recap the causal consistency of general relativity and show how this fails in the second class for the special case of coupling to photons, exploiting related calculations in the literature. In an upcoming publication [1] this result is generalized to a much broader set of theories. Then, as a causal modification of general ...

  1. Statistics, Causality and Bell's theorem

    CERN Document Server

    Gill, Richard D

    2012-01-01

    Bell's (1964) theorem is popularly supposed to establish the non-locality of quantum physics as a mathematical-physical theory. Building from this, observed violation of Bell's inequality in experiments such as that of Aspect and coworkers (1982) is popularly supposed to provide empirical proof of non-locality in the real world. This paper reviews recent work on Bell's theorem, linking it to issues in causality as understood by statisticians. The paper starts with a new proof of a strong (finite sample) version of Bell's theorem which relies only on elementary arithmetic and (counting) probability. This proof underscores the fact that Bell's theorem tells us that quantum theory is incompatible with the conjunction of three cherished and formerly uncontroversial physical principles, nicknamed here locality, realism, and freedom. The first, locality, is obviously connected to causality: causal influences need time to propagate spatially. Less obviously, the other two principles, realism and freedom, are also fo...

  2. Introductive remarks on causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana A. Romio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

  3. Novas raças de Bremia lactucae, agente causador do míldio da alface, identificadas no estado de São Paulo New races of Bremia lactucae, causal agent of lettuce downy mildew, identified in São Paulo state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean de O Souza

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi relatar o surgimento de raças de Bremia lactucae, agente causal do míldio nas principais regiões produtoras de alface do estado de São Paulo. O estudo foi realizado no Laboratório de Melhoramento Genético de Hortaliças do Departamento de Produção Vegetal da UNESP, Campus de Jaboticabal. No período de 2006 e 2007, foram coletados 36 isolados de B. lactucae de diferentes regiões produtoras de alface no estado. Para identificação das raças foram utilizadas as cultivares diferenciadoras conforme o código "Sextet". Foram identificadas três novas raças, SPBl:02, SPBl:03 e SPBl:04 com os referidos comportamentos do fungo: (63/31/19/00, (63/63/19/00 e (63/63/03/00. Os genes Dm-14, Dm-17, Dm-18, Dm-37 e Dm-38 conferem resistência a essas novas raças identificadas.The objective of this paper was to report new races of lettuce downy mildew causal agent Bremia lactucae in São Paulo State. The study was carried out in the laboratory of Crop Genetics in the Department of Crop Science at the college of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Jaboticabal campus. A total of 36 isolates of B. lactucae was collected in different regions. The identification of races was based on compatibility reaction on the differential cultivars of the "Sextet". Three new races of B. lactucae, SPBl:02 (63/31/19/00, SPBl:03 (63/63/19/00 and SPBl:04 (63/63/03/00 were identified according to "Sextet" code. Genes Dm-14, Dm-17, Dm-18, Dm-37 and Dm-38 confer resistance to these new races identified.

  4. On Causality in Dynamical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Harnack, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Identification of causal links is fundamental for the analysis of complex systems. In dynamical systems, however, nonlinear interactions may hamper separability of subsystems which poses a challenge for attempts to determine the directions and strengths of their mutual influences. We found that asymmetric causal influences between parts of a dynamical system lead to characteristic distortions in the mappings between the attractor manifolds reconstructed from respective local observables. These distortions can be measured in a model-free, data-driven manner. This approach extends basic intuitions about cause-effect relations to deterministic dynamical systems and suggests a mathematically well defined explanation of results obtained from previous methods based on state space reconstruction.

  5. Cohomology with causally restricted supports

    CERN Document Server

    Khavkine, Igor

    2014-01-01

    De Rham cohomology with spacelike compact and timelike compact supports has recently been noticed to be of importance for understanding the structure of classical and quantum field theories on curved spacetimes. We compute these cohomology groups for globally hyperbolic spacetimes in terms of their standard de Rham cohomologies. The calculation exploits the fact that the de Rham-d'Alambert wave operator can be extended to a chain map that is homotopic to zero and that its causal Green function fits into a convenient exact sequence. This method extends also to the Calabi (or Killing-Riemann-Bianchi) complex and possibly other differential complexes. We also discuss generalized causal structures and functoriality.

  6. Kolmogorov Complexity, Causality And Spin

    CERN Document Server

    Shayda, Dara O

    2012-01-01

    A novel topological and computational method for 'motion' is described. Motion is constrained by inequalities in terms of Kolmogorov Complexity. Causality is obtained as the output of a high-pass filter, passing through only high values of Kolmogorov Complexity. Motion under the electromagnetic field described with immediate relationship with Subscript[G, 2] Holonomy group and its corresponding dense free 2-subgroup. Similar to Causality, Spin emerges as an immediate and inevitable consequence of high values of Kolmogorov Complexity. Consequently, the physical laws are nothing but a low-pass filter for small values of Kolmogorov Complexity.

  7. Information thermodynamics on causal networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Sosuke; Sagawa, Takahiro

    2013-11-01

    We study nonequilibrium thermodynamics of complex information flows induced by interactions between multiple fluctuating systems. Characterizing nonequilibrium dynamics by causal networks (i.e., Bayesian networks), we obtain novel generalizations of the second law of thermodynamics and the fluctuation theorem, which include an informational quantity characterized by the topology of the causal network. Our result implies that the entropy production in a single system in the presence of multiple other systems is bounded by the information flow between these systems. We demonstrate our general result by a simple model of biochemical adaptation.

  8. Local Causality, Probability and Explanation

    CERN Document Server

    Healey, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.

  9. Granger Causality and Unit Roots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges......, eventually rejecting the null hypothesis, even when the series are independent of each other. Moreover, controlling for these deterministic elements (in the auxiliary regressions of the test) does not preclude the possibility of drawing erroneous inferences. Granger-causality tests should not be used under...

  10. Causality and micro-causality in curved spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollowood, Timothy J. [Department of Physics, University of Wales Swansea, Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)], E-mail: t.hollowood@swansea.ac.uk; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, University of Wales Swansea, Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)], E-mail: g.m.shore@swansea.ac.uk

    2007-10-25

    We consider how causality and micro-causality are realised in QED in curved spacetime. The photon propagator is found to exhibit novel non-analytic behaviour due to vacuum polarization, which invalidates the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relation and calls into question the validity of micro-causality in curved spacetime. This non-analyticity is ultimately related to the generic focusing nature of congruences of geodesics in curved spacetime, as implied by the null energy condition, and the existence of conjugate points. These results arise from a calculation of the complete non-perturbative frequency dependence of the vacuum polarization tensor in QED, using novel world-line path integral methods together with the Penrose plane-wave limit of spacetime in the neighbourhood of a null geodesic. The refractive index of curved spacetime is shown to exhibit superluminal phase velocities, dispersion, absorption (due to {gamma}{yields}e{sup +}e{sup -}) and bi-refringence, but we demonstrate that the wavefront velocity (the high-frequency limit of the phase velocity) is indeed c, thereby guaranteeing that causality itself is respected.

  11. The argumentative impact of causal relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

    1996-01-01

    such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

  12. Causality problem in Economic Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOSÉ LUIS RETOLAZA

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The main point of the paper is the problem of the economy to be consider like a science in the most strict term of the concept. In the first step we are going to tackle a presentation about what we understand by science to subsequently present some of the fallacies which have bring certain scepticism about the scientific character of the investigation in economy, to know: 1 The differences between hard and weak sciences -physics and social; 2 The differences between paradigm, —positivist and phenomenological— 3 The differences between physic causalityand historic causality. In the second step we are going to talk about two fundamental problems which are questioned: 1 the confusion between ontology and gnoseology and, 2 the erroneous concept of causality that commonly is used. In the last step of the paper we are going over the recent models of «causal explanation» and we suggest the probabilistic casualty development next with a more elaborated models of causal explanation, like a way to conjugate the scientific severity with the possibility to tackle complex economic realities.

  13. Causal Categories: Relativistically Interacting Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coecke, Bob; Lal, Raymond

    2013-04-01

    A symmetric monoidal category naturally arises as the mathematical structure that organizes physical systems, processes, and composition thereof, both sequentially and in parallel. This structure admits a purely graphical calculus. This paper is concerned with the encoding of a fixed causal structure within a symmetric monoidal category: causal dependencies will correspond to topological connectedness in the graphical language. We show that correlations, either classical or quantum, force terminality of the tensor unit. We also show that well-definedness of the concept of a global state forces the monoidal product to be only partially defined, which in turn results in a relativistic covariance theorem. Except for these assumptions, at no stage do we assume anything more than purely compositional symmetric-monoidal categorical structure. We cast these two structural results in terms of a mathematical entity, which we call a causal category. We provide methods of constructing causal categories, and we study the consequences of these methods for the general framework of categorical quantum mechanics.

  14. Causal feedbacks in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.; Brovkin, V.; Lenton, T.M.; Ye, H.; Deyle, E.; Sugihara, G.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical association between temperature and greenhouse gases over glacial cycles is well documented1, but causality behind this correlation remains difficult to extract directly from the data. A time lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature—originally thought to hint at a driving role for tem

  15. An Introduction to Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-02

    legitimize causal inference, has removed causation from its natural habitat, and distorted its face beyond recognition. This exclusivist attitude is...In contrast, when the mediation problem is approached from an exclusivist potential-outcome viewpoint, void of the structural guidance of Eq. (28

  16. Breaking the arrows of causality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valsiner, Jaan

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical models of catalysis have proven to bring with them major breakthroughs in chemistry and biology, from the 1830s onward. It can be argued that the scientific status of chemistry has become established through the move from causal to catalytic models. Likewise, the central explanatory...

  17. Learning a Theory of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Noah D.; Ullman, Tomer D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2011-01-01

    The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be…

  18. Free Fermions on causal sets

    CERN Document Server

    Noldus, Johan

    2013-01-01

    We construct a Dirac theory on causal sets; a key element in the construction being that the causet must be regarded as emergent in an appropriate sense too. We further notice that mixed norm spaces appear in the construction allowing for negative norm particles and "ghosts".

  19. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

    2016-08-01

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  20. Causal inference in obesity research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, P W; Atabaki-Pasdar, N

    2017-03-01

    Obesity is a risk factor for a plethora of severe morbidities and premature death. Most supporting evidence comes from observational studies that are prone to chance, bias and confounding. Even data on the protective effects of weight loss from randomized controlled trials will be susceptible to confounding and bias if treatment assignment cannot be masked, which is usually the case with lifestyle and surgical interventions. Thus, whilst obesity is widely considered the major modifiable risk factor for many chronic diseases, its causes and consequences are often difficult to determine. Addressing this is important, as the prevention and treatment of any disease requires that interventions focus on causal risk factors. Disease prediction, although not dependent on knowing the causes, is nevertheless enhanced by such knowledge. Here, we provide an overview of some of the barriers to causal inference in obesity research and discuss analytical approaches, such as Mendelian randomization, that can help to overcome these obstacles. In a systematic review of the literature in this field, we found: (i) probable causal relationships between adiposity and bone health/disease, cancers (colorectal, lung and kidney cancers), cardiometabolic traits (blood pressure, fasting insulin, inflammatory markers and lipids), uric acid concentrations, coronary heart disease and venous thrombosis (in the presence of pulmonary embolism), (ii) possible causal relationships between adiposity and gray matter volume, depression and common mental disorders, oesophageal cancer, macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, diabetic kidney disease, nuclear cataract and gall stone disease, and (iii) no evidence for causal relationships between adiposity and Alzheimer's disease, pancreatic cancer, venous thrombosis (in the absence of pulmonary embolism), liver function and periodontitis.

  1. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  2. Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

    2016-01-01

    Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

  3. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  4. Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

    2008-01-01

    Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…

  5. Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

    2008-01-01

    Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and inferences, and…

  6. Decomposing Granger Causality over the Spectrum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Lemmens (Aurélie); C. Croux (Christophe); M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe develop a bivariate spectral Granger-causality test that can be applied at each individual frequency of the spectrum. The spectral approach to Granger causality has the distinct advantage that it allows to disentangle (potentially) di®erent Granger- causality relationships over di®ere

  7. Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2011-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

  8. Velocity requirements for causality violation

    CERN Document Server

    Modanese, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    It is known that the hypothetical existence of superluminal signals would imply the logical possibility of active causal violation: an observer in relative motion with respect to a primary source could in principle emit secondary superluminal signals (triggered by the primary ones) which go back in time and deactivate the primary source before the initial emission. This is a direct consequence of the structure of the Lorentz transformations, sometimes called "Regge-Tolman paradox". It is straightforward to find a formula for the velocity of the moving observer required to produce the causality violation. When applied to some recent claims of slight superluminal propagation, this formula yields a required velocity very close to the speed of light; this raises some doubts about the real physical observability of such violations. We re-compute this velocity requirement introducing a realistic delay between the reception of the primary signal and the emission of the secondary. It turns out that for -any- delay it...

  9. Painless causality in defect calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Cheung, C; Cheung, Charlotte; Magueijo, Joao

    1997-01-01

    Topological defects must respect causality, a statement leading to restrictive constraints on the power spectrum of the total cosmological perturbations they induce. Causality constraints have for long been known to require the presence of an under-density in the surrounding matter compensating the defect network on large scales. This so-called compensation can never be neglected and significantly complicates calculations in defect scenarios, eg. computing cosmic microwave background fluctuations. A quick and dirty way to implement the compensation are the so-called compensation fudge factors. Here we derive the complete photon-baryon-CDM backreaction effects in defect scenarios. The fudge factor comes out as an algebraic identity and so we drop the negative qualifier ``fudge''. The compensation scale is computed and physically interpreted. Secondary backreaction effects exist, and neglecting them constitutes the well-defined approximation scheme within which one should consider compensation factor calculatio...

  10. Confounding Equivalence in Causal Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Pearl, Judea

    2012-01-01

    The paper provides a simple test for deciding, from a given causal diagram, whether two sets of variables have the same bias-reducing potential under adjustment. The test re- quires that one of the following two condi- tions holds: either (1) both sets are admis- sible (i.e., satisfy the back-door criterion) or (2) the Markov boundaries surrounding the manipulated variable(s) are identical in both sets. Applications to covariate selection and model testing are discussed.

  11. Phenomenology of Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    CERN Document Server

    Mielczarek, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    The four dimensional Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity is already more than ten years old theory with numerous unprecedented predictions such as non-trivial phase structure of gravitational field and dimensional running. Here, we discuss possible empirical consequences of CDT derived based on the two features of the approach mentioned above. A possibility of using both astrophysical and cosmological observations to test CDT is discussed. We show that scenarios which can be ruled out at the empirical level exist.

  12. Causality and primordial tensor modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumann, Daniel; Zaldarriaga, Matias, E-mail: dbaumann@physics.harvard.edu, E-mail: mzaldarriaga@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Physics, Harvard University, 17 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A. and Center for Astrophysics, Harvard University, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2009-06-01

    We introduce the real space correlation function of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as a probe of superhorizon tensor perturbations created by inflation. By causality, any non-inflationary mechanism for gravitational wave production after reheating, like global phase transitions or cosmic strings, must have vanishing correlations for angular separations greater than the angle subtended by the particle horizon at recombination, i.e. θ ∼> 2°. Since ordinary B-modes are defined non-locally in terms of the Stokes parameters Q and U and therefore don't have to respect causality, special care is taken to define 'causal B-tilde -modes' for the analysis. We compute the real space B-tilde -mode correlation function for inflation and discuss its detectability on superhorizon scales where it provides an unambiguous test of inflationary gravitational waves. The correct identification of inflationary tensor modes is crucial since it relates directly to the energy scale of inflation. Wrongly associating tensor modes from causal seeds with inflation would imply an incorrect inference of the energy scale of inflation. We find that the superhorizon B-tilde -mode signal is above cosmic variance for the angular range 2° < θ < 4° and is therefore in principle detectable. In practice, the signal will be challenging to measure since it requires accurately resolving the recombination peak of the B-mode power spectrum. However, a future CMB satellite (CMBPol), with noise level Δ{sub P} ≅ 1μK-arcmin and sufficient resolution to efficiently correct for lensing-induced B-modes, should be able to detect the signal at more than 3σ if the tensor-to-scalar ratio isn't smaller than r ≅ 0.01.

  13. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolyaninov, Igor I.

    2013-02-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space-time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space-time. While this model may be used to build interesting space-time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space-time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler-Feynman absorber theory of causality.

  14. Entanglement, Holography and Causal Diamonds

    CERN Document Server

    de Boer, Jan; Heller, Michal P; Myers, Robert C

    2016-01-01

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the va...

  15. Experimental verification of an indefinite causal order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubino, Giulia; Rozema, Lee A.; Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Zeuner, Jonas M.; Procopio, Lorenzo M.; Brukner, Časlav; Walther, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Investigating the role of causal order in quantum mechanics has recently revealed that the causal relations of events may not be a priori well defined in quantum theory. Although this has triggered a growing interest on the theoretical side, creating processes without a causal order is an experimental task. We report the first decisive demonstration of a process with an indefinite causal order. To do this, we quantify how incompatible our setup is with a definite causal order by measuring a “causal witness.” This mathematical object incorporates a series of measurements that are designed to yield a certain outcome only if the process under examination is not consistent with any well-defined causal order. In our experiment, we perform a measurement in a superposition of causal orders—without destroying the coherence—to acquire information both inside and outside of a “causally nonordered process.” Using this information, we experimentally determine a causal witness, demonstrating by almost 7 SDs that the experimentally implemented process does not have a definite causal order.

  16. Norms and customs: causally important or causally impotent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Todd

    2010-01-01

    In this article, I argue that norms and customs, despite frequently being described as being causes of behavior in the social sciences and ordinary conversation, cannot really cause behavior. Terms like "norms" and the like seem to refer to philosophically disreputable disjunctive properties. More problematically, even if they do not, or even if there can be disjunctive properties after all, I argue that norms and customs still cannot cause behavior. The social sciences would be better off without referring to properties like norms and customs as if they could be causal.

  17. Independence and dependence in human causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob

    2014-07-01

    Causal graphical models (CGMs) are a popular formalism used to model human causal reasoning and learning. The key property of CGMs is the causal Markov condition, which stipulates patterns of independence and dependence among causally related variables. Five experiments found that while adult's causal inferences exhibited aspects of veridical causal reasoning, they also exhibited a small but tenacious tendency to violate the Markov condition. They also failed to exhibit robust discounting in which the presence of one cause as an explanation of an effect makes the presence of another less likely. Instead, subjects often reasoned "associatively," that is, assumed that the presence of one variable implied the presence of other, causally related variables, even those that were (according to the Markov condition) conditionally independent. This tendency was unaffected by manipulations (e.g., response deadlines) known to influence fast and intuitive reasoning processes, suggesting that an associative response to a causal reasoning question is sometimes the product of careful and deliberate thinking. That about 60% of the erroneous associative inferences were made by about a quarter of the subjects suggests the presence of substantial individual differences in this tendency. There was also evidence that inferences were influenced by subjects' assumptions about factors that disable causal relations and their use of a conjunctive reasoning strategy. Theories that strive to provide high fidelity accounts of human causal reasoning will need to relax the independence constraints imposed by CGMs.

  18. Space and time in perceptual causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Straube

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Inferring causality is a fundamental feature of human cognition that allows us to theorize about and predict future states of the world. Michotte suggested that humans automatically perceive causality based on certain perceptual features of events. However, individual differences in judgments of perceptual causality cast doubt on Michotte’s view. To gain insights in the neural basis of individual difference in the perception of causality, our participants judged causal relationships in animations of a blue ball colliding with a red ball (a launching event while fMRI-data were acquired. Spatial continuity and temporal contiguity were varied parametrically in these stimuli. We did not find consistent brain activation differences between trials judged as caused and those judged as non-caused, making it unlikely that humans have universal instantiation of perceptual causality in the brain. However, participants were slower to respond to and showed greater neural activity for violations of causality, suggesting that humans are biased to expect causal relationships when moving objects appear to interact. Our participants demonstrated considerable individual differences in their sensitivity to spatial and temporal characteristics in perceiving causality. These qualitative differences in sensitivity to time or space in perceiving causality were instantiated in individual differences in activation of the left basal ganglia or right parietal lobe, respectively. Thus, the perception that the movement of one object causes the movement of another is triggered by elemental spatial and temporal sensitivities, which themselves are instantiated in specific distinct neural networks.

  19. How prescriptive norms influence causal inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samland, Jana; Waldmann, Michael R

    2016-11-01

    Recent experimental findings suggest that prescriptive norms influence causal inferences. The cognitive mechanism underlying this finding is still under debate. We compare three competing theories: The culpable control model of blame argues that reasoners tend to exaggerate the causal influence of norm-violating agents, which should lead to relatively higher causal strength estimates for these agents. By contrast, the counterfactual reasoning account of causal selection assumes that norms do not alter the representation of the causal model, but rather later causal selection stages. According to this view, reasoners tend to preferentially consider counterfactual states of abnormal rather than normal factors, which leads to the choice of the abnormal factor in a causal selection task. A third view, the accountability hypothesis, claims that the effects of prescriptive norms are generated by the ambiguity of the causal test question. Asking whether an agent is a cause can be understood as a request to assess her causal contribution but also her moral accountability. According to this theory norm effects on causal selection are mediated by accountability judgments that are not only sensitive to the abnormality of behavior but also to mitigating factors, such as intentionality and knowledge of norms. Five experiments are presented that favor the accountability account over the two alternative theories.

  20. Primordial Magnetic Fields and Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Durrer, R; Durrer, Ruth; Caprini, Chiara

    2003-01-01

    In this letter we discuss the implications of causality on a primordial magnetic field. We show that the residual field on large scales is much stronger suppressed than usually assumed and that a helical component is even suppressed even more than the parity even part. We show that due to this strong suppression, even maximal primordial fields generated at the electroweak phase transition can just marginally seed the fields in galaxies and clusters, but they cannot leave any detectable imprint on the cosmic microwave background.

  1. Random number generators and causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larrondo, H.A. [Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Juan B. Justo 4302, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: larrondo@fi.mdp.edu.ar; Martin, M.T. [Instituto de Fisica (IFLP), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata and Argentina' s National Council (CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: mtmartin@venus.unlp.edu.ar; Gonzalez, C.M. [Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Juan B. Justo 4302, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: cmgonzal@fi.mdp.edu.ar; Plastino, A. [Instituto de Fisica (IFLP), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata and Argentina' s National Council (CONICET), C.C. 727, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)]. E-mail: plastino@venus.unlp.edu.ar; Rosso, O.A. [Chaos and Biology Group, Instituto de Calculo, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Pabellon II, Ciudad Universitaria, 1428 Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina)]. E-mail: oarosso@fibertel.com.ar

    2006-04-03

    We advance a prescription to randomize physical or algorithmic Random Number Generators (RNG's) that do not pass Marsaglia's DIEHARD test suite and discuss a special physical quantifier, based on an intensive statistical complexity measure, that is able to adequately assess the improvements produced thereby. Eight RNG's are evaluated and the associated results are compared to those obtained by recourse to Marsaglia's DIEHARD test suite. Our quantifier, which is evaluated using causality arguments, can forecast whether a given RNG will pass the above mentioned test.

  2. Random number generators and causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrondo, H. A.; Martín, M. T.; González, C. M.; Plastino, A.; Rosso, O. A.

    2006-04-01

    We advance a prescription to randomize physical or algorithmic Random Number Generators (RNG's) that do not pass Marsaglia's DIEHARD test suite and discuss a special physical quantifier, based on an intensive statistical complexity measure, that is able to adequately assess the improvements produced thereby. Eight RNG's are evaluated and the associated results are compared to those obtained by recourse to Marsaglia's DIEHARD test suite. Our quantifier, which is evaluated using causality arguments, can forecast whether a given RNG will pass the above mentioned test.

  3. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    CERN Document Server

    Smolyaninov, Igor I

    2012-01-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2+1 dimensional Minkowski spacetime in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete history of this 2+1 dimensional spacetime. While this model may be used to build interesting spacetime analogs, such as metamaterial black holes and big bang, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and force along the timelike spatial coordinate, events in the future may affect events in the past. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the timelike spatial coordinate. Resulting 2+1 Minkowski spacetime appears to be causal. Th...

  4. Causal viscous cosmology without singularities

    CERN Document Server

    Laciana, Carlos E

    2016-01-01

    An isotropic and homogeneous cosmological model with a source of dark energy is studied. That source is simulated with a viscous relativistic fluid with minimal causal correction. In this model the restrictions on the parameters coming from the following conditions are analized: a) energy density without singularities along time, b) scale factor increasing with time, c) universe accelerated at present time, d) state equation for dark energy with "w" bounded and close to -1. It is found that those conditions are satified for the following two cases. i) When the transport coefficient ({\\tau}_{{\\Pi}}), associated to the causal correction, is negative, with the aditional restriction {\\zeta}|{\\tau}_{{\\Pi}}|>2/3, where {\\zeta} is the relativistic bulk viscosity coefficient. The state equation is in the "phantom" energy sector. ii) For {\\tau}_{{\\Pi}} positive, in the "k-essence" sector. It is performed an exact calculation for the case where the equation of state is constant, finding that option (ii) is favored in r...

  5. Spin foam models as energetic causal sets

    CERN Document Server

    Cortês, Marina

    2014-01-01

    Energetic causal sets are causal sets endowed by a flow of energy-momentum between causally related events. These incorporate a novel mechanism for the emergence of space-time from causal relations. Here we construct a spin foam model which is also an energetic causal set model. This model is closely related to the model introduced by Wieland, and this construction makes use of results used there. What makes a spin foam model also an energetic causal set is Wieland's identification of new momenta, conserved at events (or four-simplices), whose norms are not mass, but the volume of tetrahedra. This realizes the torsion constraints, which are missing in previous spin foam models, and are needed to relate the connection dynamics to those of the metric, as in general relativity. This identification makes it possible to apply the new mechanism for the emergence of space-time to a spin foam model.

  6. Causal inference in economics and marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R.

    2016-01-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  7. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  8. Identifying Causal Effects with Computer Algebra

    CERN Document Server

    García-Puente, Luis David; Sullivant, Seth

    2010-01-01

    The long-standing identification problem for causal effects in graphical models has many partial results but lacks a systematic study. We show how computer algebra can be used to either prove that a causal effect can be identified, generically identified, or show that the effect is not generically identifiable. We report on the results of our computations for linear structural equation models, where we determine precisely which causal effects are generically identifiable for all graphs on three and four vertices.

  9. Scalar Curvature of a Causal Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benincasa, Dionigi M. T.; Dowker, Fay

    2010-05-01

    A one parameter family of retarded linear operators on scalar fields on causal sets is introduced. When the causal set is well approximated by 4 dimensional Minkowski spacetime, the operators are Lorentz invariant but nonlocal, are parametrized by the scale of the nonlocality, and approximate the continuum scalar D’Alembertian □ when acting on fields that vary slowly on the nonlocality scale. The same operators can be applied to scalar fields on causal sets which are well approximated by curved spacetimes in which case they approximate □-(1)/(2)R where R is the Ricci scalar curvature. This can used to define an approximately local action functional for causal sets.

  10. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-07-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  11. Comparison theorems for causal diamonds

    CERN Document Server

    Berthiere, Clement; Solodukhin, Sergey N

    2015-01-01

    We formulate certain inequalities for the geometric quantities characterizing causal diamonds in curved and Minkowski spacetimes. These inequalities involve the red-shift factor which, as we show explicitly in the spherically symmetric case, is monotonic in the radial direction and it takes its maximal value at the centre. As a byproduct of our discussion we re-derive Bishop's inequality without assuming the positivity of the spatial Ricci tensor. We then generalize our considerations to arbitrary, static and not necessarily spherically symmetric, asymptotically flat spacetimes. In the case of spacetimes with a horizon our generalization involves the so-called {\\it domain of dependence}. The respective volume, expressed in terms of the duration measured by a distant observer compared with the volume of the domain in Minkowski spacetime, exhibits behaviours which differ if $d=4$ or $d>4$. This peculiarity of four dimensions is due to the logarithmic subleading term in the asymptotic expansion of the metric nea...

  12. Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Universidad del Pais Vasco, Apartado 644, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Sanchez, Miguel [Departamento de Geometria y Topologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Avenida Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain)

    2005-11-07

    Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R{sup 2} (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries.

  13. The Power of Causal Beliefs and Conflicting Evidence on Causal Judgments and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Muller, Stephanie M.; Catena, Andres; Maldonado, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    In two experiments, we investigated the relative impact of causal beliefs and empirical evidence on both decision making and causal judgments, and whether this relative impact could be altered by previous experience. 2. Selected groups of participants in both experiments received pre-training with either causal or neutral cues, or no pre-training…

  14. EFECTO DE DOS MICROORGANISMOS Y UN CONSORCIO DE MICORRIZAS EN COMBINACIÓN CON VIRUTA DE PINO SOBRE EL CONTROL DE SARNA POLVOSA (Spongospora subterránea EN PAPA EFECT OF TWO MICROORGANISMS, MYCORHIZE AND PINE WOOD SHAVINGS ON THE CONTROL OF POWDERY SCAB (Spongospora subterranea IN POTATO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Felipe Restrepo Duque

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evaluaron los efectos de dos biocontroladores potenciales, un consorcio de micorrizas y viruta de pino sobre el control de Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea en papa Diacol Capiro muy susceptible a la sarna polvosa. El estudio se realizó en el Centro Agropecuario Paysandú, corregimiento de Santa Elena Medellín a 2.550 msnm, temperatura media de 14 ºC y precipitación promedio anual de 2.500 mm. Se utilizó un diseño completamente al azar con cuatro repeticiones y cinco tratamientos (Trichoderma harzianum; Producto comercial de micorrizas “Mikorhyze lote C7”; Pseudomonas fluorescents, viruta de pino y Testigo sin control. Se encontraron porcentajes de incidencia de la enfermedad en raíces (32% para el tratamiento testigo (sin control, aunque el porcentaje de severidad tanto del testigo como de los demás tratamientos fue bajo, el cual no superó el 0,23%. La expresión de síntomas en tubérculos mostró diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre el tratamiento testigo y la aplicación de T. harzianum, micorrizas y P. fluorescents a los tubérculos, al igual que la adición de la viruta de pino al suelo. Estos tratamientos redujeron la incidencia y severidad de la sarna polvosa en las raíces y tubérculos. Las variables fisiológicas peso seco de raíces, peso de tubérculos y peso seco de la parte aérea, no presentaron incrementos positivos ni diferencias significativas entre los tratamientos evaluados.The effect of two potential microorganism, mycorhize and pine wood shavings for management of Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea in potato cultivar DIACOL Capiro were evaluated. This research was established at the Agricultural Center of Paysandú (Santa Elena - Medellín to 2,550 masL, average temperature of 14 ºC and average annual rainfall of 2,500 mm. A field experiment was established using a randomized complete design with four replications and five treatments (Trichoderma harzianum; Comercial product

  15. "Comments on Slavin": Synthesizing Causal Inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Derek C.

    2008-01-01

    When causal inferences are to be synthesized across multiple studies, efforts to establish the magnitude of a causal effect should be balanced by an effort to evaluate the generalizability of the effect. The evaluation of generalizability depends on two factors that are given little attention in current syntheses: construct validity and external…

  16. Structural intervention distance for evaluating causal graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Jonas; Bühlmann, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Causal inference relies on the structure of a graph, often a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Different graphs may result in different causal inference statements and different intervention distributions. To quantify such differences, we propose a (pre-)metric between DAGs, the structural interventi...... implementation with software code available on the first author's home page....

  17. On the spectral formulation of Granger causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicharro, D

    2011-12-01

    Spectral measures of causality are used to explore the role of different rhythms in the causal connectivity between brain regions. We study several spectral measures related to Granger causality, comprising the bivariate and conditional Geweke measures, the directed transfer function, and the partial directed coherence. We derive the formulation of dependence and causality in the spectral domain from the more general formulation in the information-theory framework. We argue that the transfer entropy, the most general measure derived from the concept of Granger causality, lacks a spectral representation in terms of only the processes associated with the recorded signals. For all the spectral measures we show how they are related to mutual information rates when explicitly considering the parametric autoregressive representation of the processes. In this way we express the conditional Geweke spectral measure in terms of a multiple coherence involving innovation variables inherent to the autoregressive representation. We also link partial directed coherence with Sims' criterion of causality. Given our results, we discuss the causal interpretation of the spectral measures related to Granger causality and stress the necessity to explicitly consider their specific formulation based on modeling the signals as linear Gaussian stationary autoregressive processes.

  18. Causal Moderation Analysis Using Propensity Score Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Nianbo

    2012-01-01

    This paper is based on previous studies in applying propensity score methods to study multiple treatment variables to examine the causal moderator effect. The propensity score methods will be demonstrated in a case study to examine the causal moderator effect, where the moderators are categorical and continuous variables. Moderation analysis is an…

  19. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  20. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  1. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  2. Essays on Causal Inference for Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajonc, Tristan

    2012-01-01

    Effective policymaking requires understanding the causal effects of competing proposals. Relevant causal quantities include proposals' expected effect on different groups of recipients, the impact of policies over time, the potential trade-offs between competing objectives, and, ultimately, the optimal policy. This dissertation studies causal…

  3. Causal random geometry from stochastic quantization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambjørn, Jan; Loll, R.; Westra, W.

    2010-01-01

     in this short note we review a recently found formulation of two-dimensional causal quantum gravity defined through Causal Dynamical Triangulations and stochastic quantization. This procedure enables one to extract the nonperturbative quantum Hamiltonian of the random surface model including the...

  4. The causal order on the ambient boundary

    CERN Document Server

    Antoniadis, Ignatios; Papadopoulos, Kyriakos

    2016-01-01

    We analyse the causal structure of the ambient boundary, the conformal infinity of the ambient (Poincar\\'e) metric. Using topological tools we show that the only causal relation compatible with the global topology of the boundary spacetime is the horismos order. This has important consequences for the notion of time in the conformal geometry of the ambient boundary.

  5. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  6. Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentler, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

  7. Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations

    CERN Document Server

    MacLean, Jean-Philippe W; Spekkens, Robert W; Resch, Kevin J

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the causal influences that hold among the parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common cause acting on both. Here, we show that it is possible to have a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize such a nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's paradox. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, such as Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity, but could also provide a resource for novel quantum technologies.

  8. A Causal Alternative to Feynman's Propagator

    CERN Document Server

    Koksma, Jurjen F

    2010-01-01

    The Feynman propagator used in the conventional in-out formalism in quantum field theory is not a causal propagator as wave packets are propagated virtually instantaneously outside the causal region of the initial state. We formulate a causal in-out formalism in quantum field theory by making use of the Wheeler propagator, the time ordered commutator propagator, which is manifestly causal. Only free scalar field theories and their first quantization are considered. We identify the real Klein Gordon field itself as the wave function of a neutral spinless relativistic particle. Furthermore, we derive a probability density for our relativistic wave packet using the inner product between states that live on a suitably defined Hilbert space of real quantum fields. We show that the time evolution of our probability density is governed by the Wheeler propagator, such that it behaves causally too.

  9. Causality, Bell's theorem, and Ontic Definiteness

    CERN Document Server

    Henson, Joe

    2011-01-01

    Bell's theorem shows that the reasonable relativistic causal principle known as "local causality" is not compatible with the predictions of quantum mechanics. It is not possible maintain a satisfying causal principle of this type while dropping any of the better-known assumptions of Bell's theorem. However, another assumption of Bell's theorem is the use of classical logic. One part of this assumption is the principle of "ontic definiteness", that is, that it must in principle be possible to assign definite truth values to all propositions treated in the theory. Once the logical setting is clarified somewhat, it can be seen that rejecting this principle does not in any way undermine the type of causal principle used by Bell. Without ontic definiteness, the deterministic causal condition known as Einstein Locality succeeds in banning superluminal influence (including signalling) whilst allowing correlations that violate Bell's inequalities. Objections to altering logic, and the consequences for operational and...

  10. A Brief Introduction to Temporality and Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Karimi, Kamran

    2010-01-01

    Causality is a non-obvious concept that is often considered to be related to temporality. In this paper we present a number of past and present approaches to the definition of temporality and causality from philosophical, physical, and computational points of view. We note that time is an important ingredient in many relationships and phenomena. The topic is then divided into the two main areas of temporal discovery, which is concerned with finding relations that are stretched over time, and causal discovery, where a claim is made as to the causal influence of certain events on others. We present a number of computational tools used for attempting to automatically discover temporal and causal relations in data.

  11. Towards Spectral Geometry for Causal Sets

    CERN Document Server

    Yazdi, Yasaman K

    2016-01-01

    We show that the Feynman propagator (or the d'Alembertian) of a causal set contains the complete information about the causal set. Intuitively, this is because the Feynman propagator, being a correlator that decays with distance, provides a measure for the invariant distance between pairs of events. Further, we show that even the spectra alone (of the self-adjoint and anti-self-adjoint parts) of the propagator(s) and d'Alembertian already carry large amounts of geometric information about their causal set. This geometric information is basis independent and also gauge invariant in the sense that it is relabeling invariant (which is analogue to diffeomorphism invariance). We provide numerical evidence that the associated spectral distance between causal sets can serve as a measure for the geometric similarity between causal sets.

  12. Causality Violation, Gravitational Shockwaves and UV Completion

    CERN Document Server

    Hollowood, Timothy J

    2015-01-01

    The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of "time machines", i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate h...

  13. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics a superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    CERN Document Server

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly non-causal processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the non-causal. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That

  14. Causal Cones, Cone Preserving Transformations and Causal Structure in Special and General Theory of Relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Janardhan, Sujatha

    2012-01-01

    We present a short review of geometric and algebraic approach to causal cones and describe cone preserving transformations and their relationship with causal structure related to special and general theory of relativity. We describe Lie groups, especially matrix Lie groups, homogeneous and symmetric spaces and causal cones and certain implications of these concepts in special and general theory of relativity related to causal structure and topology of space-time. We compare and contrast the results on causal relations with those in the literature for general space-times and compare these relations with K-causal maps. We also describe causal orientations and their implications for space-time topology and discuss some more topologies on space-time which arise as an application of domain theory.

  15. Causal systems categories: differences in novice and expert categorization of causal phenomena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottman, Benjamin M; Gentner, Dedre; Goldwater, Micah B

    2012-07-01

    We investigated the understanding of causal systems categories--categories defined by common causal structure rather than by common domain content--among college students. We asked students who were either novices or experts in the physical sciences to sort descriptions of real-world phenomena that varied in their causal structure (e.g., negative feedback vs. causal chain) and in their content domain (e.g., economics vs. biology). Our hypothesis was that there would be a shift from domain-based sorting to causal sorting with increasing expertise in the relevant domains. This prediction was borne out: the novice groups sorted primarily by domain and the expert group sorted by causal category. These results suggest that science training facilitates insight about causal structures.

  16. Spread of entanglement and causality

    CERN Document Server

    Casini, Horacio; Mezei, Márk

    2015-01-01

    We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of arXiv:cond-mat/0503393 to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multi...

  17. Spread of entanglement and causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casini, Horacio; Liu, Hong; Mezei, Márk

    2016-07-01

    We investigate causality constraints on the time evolution of entanglement entropy after a global quench in relativistic theories. We first provide a general proof that the so-called tsunami velocity is bounded by the speed of light. We then generalize the free particle streaming model of [1] to general dimensions and to an arbitrary entanglement pattern of the initial state. In more than two spacetime dimensions the spread of entanglement in these models is highly sensitive to the initial entanglement pattern, but we are able to prove an upper bound on the normalized rate of growth of entanglement entropy, and hence the tsunami velocity. The bound is smaller than what one gets for quenches in holographic theories, which highlights the importance of interactions in the spread of entanglement in many-body systems. We propose an interacting model which we believe provides an upper bound on the spread of entanglement for interacting relativistic theories. In two spacetime dimensions with multiple intervals, this model and its variations are able to reproduce intricate results exhibited by holographic theories for a significant part of the parameter space. For higher dimensions, the model bounds the tsunami velocity at the speed of light. Finally, we construct a geometric model for entanglement propagation based on a tensor network construction for global quenches.

  18. Entanglement Entropy in Causal Set Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Sorkin, Rafael D

    2016-01-01

    Entanglement entropy is now widely accepted as having deep connections with quantum gravity. It is therefore desirable to understand it in the context of causal sets, especially since they provide in a natural manner the UV cutoff needed to render entanglement entropy finite. Defining entropy in a causal set is not straightforward because the type of canonical hypersurface-data on which definitions of entanglement typically rely is not available in a causal set. Instead, we will appeal to a more global expression given in arXiv:1205.2953 which, for a gaussian scalar field, expresses the entropy of a spacetime region in terms of the field's correlation function within that region. Carrying this formula over to the causal set, one obtains an entanglement entropy which is both finite and of a Lorentz invariant nature. Herein we evaluate this entropy for causal sets of 1+1 dimensions, and specifically for order-intervals ("causal diamonds") within the causal set, finding in the first instance an entropy that obey...

  19. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L., E-mail: castrig@ma.tum.de; Leiseifer, Andreas D., E-mail: andreas.leiseifer@tum.de [Fakultät für Mathematik, TU München, Boltzmannstraße 3, 85747 Garching (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac’s localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

  20. Mining Causality for Explanation Knowledge from Text

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chaveevan Pechsiri; Asanee Kawtrakul

    2007-01-01

    Mining causality is essential to provide a diagnosis. This research aims at extracting the causality existing within multiple sentences or EDUs (Elementary Discourse Unit). The research emphasizes the use of causality verbs because they make explicit in a certain way the consequent events of a cause, e.g., "Aphids suck the sap from rice leaves. Then leaves will shrink. Later, they will become yellow and dry.". A verb can also be the causal-verb link between cause and effect within EDU(s), e.g., "Aphids suck the sap from rice leaves causing leaves to be shrunk" ("causing" is equivalent to a causal-verb link in Thai). The research confronts two main problems: identifying the interesting causality events from documents and identifying their boundaries. Then, we propose mining on verbs by using two different machine learning techniques, Naive Bayes classifier and Support Vector Machine. The resulted mining rules will be used for the identification and the causality extraction of the multiple EDUs from text. Our multiple EDUs extraction shows 0.88 precision with 0.75 recall from Na'ive Bayes classifier and 0.89 precision with 0.76 recall from Support Vector Machine.

  1. A Simple Test for Causality in Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality in the conditional variance (or volatility associated with financial returns was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in the variance of Cheng and Ng (1996. A subsequent development was the Lagrange Multiplier (LM test of non-causality in the conditional variance by Hafner and Herwartz (2006, who provided simulation results to show that their LM test was more powerful than the portmanteau statistic for sample sizes of 1000 and 4000 observations. While the LM test for causality proposed by Hafner and Herwartz (2006 is an interesting and useful development, it is nonetheless arbitrary. In particular, the specification on which the LM test is based does not rely on an underlying stochastic process, so the alternative hypothesis is also arbitrary, which can affect the power of the test. The purpose of the paper is to derive a simple test for causality in volatility that provides regularity conditions arising from the underlying stochastic process, namely a random coefficient autoregressive process, and a test for which the (quasi- maximum likelihood estimates have valid asymptotic properties under the null hypothesis of non-causality. The simple test is intuitively appealing as it is based on an underlying stochastic process, is sympathetic to Granger’s (1969, 1988 notion of time series predictability, is easy to implement, and has a regularity condition that is not available in the LM test.

  2. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design.

  3. Diagnosis and causal explanation in psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maung, Hane Htut

    2016-12-01

    In clinical medicine, a diagnosis can offer an explanation of a patient's symptoms by specifying the pathology that is causing them. Diagnoses in psychiatry are also sometimes presented in clinical texts as if they pick out pathological processes that cause sets of symptoms. However, current evidence suggests the possibility that many diagnostic categories in psychiatry are highly causally heterogeneous. For example, major depressive disorder may not be associated with a single type of underlying pathological process, but with a range of different causal pathways, each involving complex interactions of various biological, psychological, and social factors. This paper explores the implications of causal heterogeneity for whether psychiatric diagnoses can be said to serve causal explanatory roles in clinical practice. I argue that while they may fall short of picking out a specific cause of the patient's symptoms, they can nonetheless supply different sorts of clinically relevant causal information. In particular, I suggest that some psychiatric diagnoses provide negative information that rules out certain causes, some provide approximate or disjunctive information about the range of possible causal processes, and some provide causal information about the relations between the symptoms themselves.

  4. Scalar Field Green Functions on Causal Sets

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, S. Nomaan; Dowker, Fay; Surya, Sumati

    2017-01-01

    We examine the validity and scope of Johnston's models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2-d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2 dimensional spacetime. We explicitly ...

  5. On the origin of Hill's causal criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, A

    1991-09-01

    The rules to assess causation formulated by the eighteenth century Scottish philosopher David Hume are compared to Sir Austin Bradford Hill's causal criteria. The strength of the analogy between Hume's rules and Hill's causal criteria suggests that, irrespective of whether Hume's work was known to Hill or Hill's predecessors, Hume's thinking expresses a point of view still widely shared by contemporary epidemiologists. The lack of systematic experimental proof to causal inferences in epidemiology may explain the analogy of Hume's and Hill's, as opposed to Popper's, logic.

  6. Intrinsic Universality of Causal Graph Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Martiel

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Causal graph dynamics are transformations over graphs that capture two important symmetries of physics, namely causality and homogeneity. They can be equivalently defined as continuous and translation invariant transformations or functions induced by a local rule applied simultaneously on every vertex of the graph. Intrinsic universality is the ability of an instance of a model to simulate every other instance of the model while preserving the structure of the computation at every step of the simulation. In this work we present the construction of a family of intrinsically universal instances of causal graphs dynamics, each instance being able to simulate a subset of instances.

  7. Causal structures of pp-waves

    CERN Document Server

    Hubeny, V E; Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund

    2002-01-01

    We discuss the causal structure of pp-wave spacetimes using the ideal point construction outlined by Geroch, Kronheimer, and Penrose. This generalizes the recent work of Marolf and Ross, who considered similar issues for plane wave spacetimes. We address the question regarding the dimension of the causal boundary for certain specific pp-wave backgrounds. In particular, we demonstrate that the pp-wave spacetime which gives rise to the N = 2 sine-Gordon string world-sheet theory is geodesically complete and has a one-dimensional causal boundary.

  8. Dual Causality and the Autonomy of Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Walter J

    2017-03-01

    Ernst Mayr's concept of dual causality in biology with the two forms of causes (proximate and ultimate) continues to provide an essential foundation for the philosophy of biology. They are equivalent to functional (=proximate) and evolutionary (=ultimate) causes with both required for full biological explanations. The natural sciences can be classified into nomological, historical nomological and historical dual causality, the last including only biology. Because evolutionary causality is unique to biology and must be included for all complete biological explanations, biology is autonomous from the physical sciences.

  9. Causality in 3D Massive Gravity Theories

    CERN Document Server

    Edelstein, Jose D; Kilicarslan, Ercan; Leoni, Matias; Tekin, Bayram

    2016-01-01

    We study the constraints coming from local causality requirement in various 2+1 dimensional dynamical theories of gravity. In Topologically Massive Gravity, with a single parity noninvariant massive degree of freedom, and in New Massive Gravity, with two massive spin-$2$ degrees of freedom, causality and unitarity are compatible with each other and they both require the Newton's constant to be negative. In their extensions, such as the Born-Infeld gravity and the minimal massive gravity the situation is similar and quite different from their higher dimensional counterparts, such as quadratic (e.g., Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet) or cubic theories, where causality and unitarity are in conflict.

  10. Granger causality and contiguity between stochastic processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Triacca, Umberto [Universita di L' Aquila, Roio Poggio, I-67040 L' Aquila (Italy)]. E-mail: triacca@ec.univaq.it

    2007-03-05

    Although according to many econometricians the definition of causality proposed by Granger differs from other definitions of causation in the philosophy of science, in this Letter we argue that it is not completely lacking in philosophical legitimacy. We attempt to shed new light on the nexus between Granger causality and the concept of contiguity. In particular, we prove that the existence of a Granger causal link between two stochastic processes requires that these be 'contiguous' or that there exist a chain of processes, one contiguous to the next, which link the two processes.

  11. Causality and Time in Historical Institutionalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahoney, James; Mohamedali, Khairunnisa; Nguyen, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    This chapter explores the dual concern with causality and time in historical institutionalism using a graphical approach. The analysis focuses on three concepts that are central to this field: critical junctures, gradual change, and path dependence. The analysis makes explicit and formal the logic...... underlying studies that use these “causal-temporal” concepts. The chapter shows visually how causality and temporality are linked to one another in varying ways depending on the particular pattern of change. The chapter provides new tools for describing and understanding change in historical- institutional...

  12. A Causal Model for Diagnostic Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Guoqiang; CHENG Hu

    2000-01-01

    Up to now, there have been many methods for knowledge representation and reasoning in causal networks, but few of them include the research on the coactions of nodes. In practice, ignoring these coactions may influence the accuracy of reasoning and even give rise to incorrect reasoning. In this paper, based on multilayer causal networks, the definitions on coaction nodes are given to construct a new causal network called Coaction Causal Network, which serves to construct a model of neural network for diagnosis followed by fuzzy reasoning, and then the activation rules are given and neural computing methods are used to finish the diagnostic reasoning. These methods are proved in theory and a method of computing the number of solutions for the diagnostic reasoning is given. Finally, the experiments and the conclusions are presented.

  13. The Temporal Logic of Causal Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Kleinberg, Samantha

    2012-01-01

    Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine from just the numerical time course data alone what is coordinating the visible processes, to separate the underlying prima facie causes into genuine and spurious causes and to do so with a feasible computational complexity. For this purpose, we have been developing a novel algorithm based on a framework that combines notions of causality in philosophy with algorithmic approaches built on model checking and statistical techniques for multiple hypotheses testing. The causal relationships are described in terms of temporal logic formulae, reframing the inference problem in terms of model checking. The logic used, PCTL, allows description of both the time between cause and effect and the probability of this relationship being observed. We show that equipped with these causal f...

  14. Identifiability of Causal Graphs using Functional Models

    CERN Document Server

    Peters, Jonas; Janzing, Dominik; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2012-01-01

    This work addresses the following question: Under what assumptions on the data generating process can one infer the causal graph from the joint distribution? The approach taken by conditional independence-based causal discovery methods is based on two assumptions: the Markov condition and faithfulness. It has been shown that under these assumptions the causal graph can be identified up to Markov equivalence (some arrows remain undirected) using methods like the PC algorithm. In this work we propose an alternative by defining Identifiable Functional Model Classes (IFMOCs). As our main theorem we prove that if the data generating process belongs to an IFMOC, one can identify the complete causal graph. To the best of our knowledge this is the first identifiability result of this kind that is not limited to linear functional relationships. We discuss how the IFMOC assumption and the Markov and faithfulness assumptions relate to each other and explain why we believe that the IFMOC assumption can be tested more eas...

  15. Selecting appropriate cases when tracing causal mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beach, Derek; Pedersen, Rasmus Brun

    2016-01-01

    selection guidelines are appropriate for research aimed at making cross-case claims about causal relationships, where case selection is primarily used to control for other causes. However, existing guidelines are not in alignment with case-based research that aims to trace mechanisms, where the goal......The last decade has witnessed resurgence in the interest in studying the causal mechanisms linking causes and outcomes in the social sciences. This article explores the overlooked implications for case selection when tracing mechanisms using in-depth case studies. Our argument is that existing case...... is to unpack the causal mechanism between X and Y, enabling causal inferences to be made because empirical evidence is provided for how the mechanism actually operated in a particular case. The in-depth, within-case tracing of how mechanisms operate in particular cases produces what can be termed mechanistic...

  16. Causality Between Urban Concentration and Environmental Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Population is concentrated in urban areas can cause the external diseconomies on environment if it exceeds the carrying capacity of the space and the urban economy. Otherwise the quality of the environment is getting better, led to the concentration of population in urban areas are increasingly high. This study aims to analyze the relationship of causality between the urban concentration and environmental quality in urban agglomeration areas. The data used in the study of secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics and the City Government from 2000 to 2013. The analytical method used is the Granger causality and descriptive. Granger causality study results showed no pattern of reciprocal causality, between urban concentration and the quality of the environment, but there unidirectional relationship between the urban concentration and environmental quality. This means that increasing urban concentration led to decreased environmental quality.

  17. Risk and causality in newspaper reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boholm, Max

    2009-11-01

    The study addresses the textual representation of risk and causality in news media reporting. The analytical framework combines two theoretical perspectives: media frame analysis and the philosophy of causality. Empirical data derive from selected newspaper articles on risks in the Göta älv river valley in southwest Sweden from 1994 to 2007. News media content was coded and analyzed with respect to causal explanations of risk issues. At the level of individual articles, this study finds that the media provide simple causal explanations of risks such as water pollution, landslides, and flooding. Furthermore, these explanations are constructed, or framed, in various ways, the same risk being attributed to different causes in different articles. However, the study demonstrates that a fairly complex picture of risks in the media emerges when extensive material is analyzed systematically.

  18. The Gravity Dual of Boundary Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Engelhardt, Netta

    2016-01-01

    In gauge/gravity duality, points which are not causally related on the boundary cannot be causally related through the bulk; this is the statement of boundary causality. By the Gao-Wald theorem, the averaged null energy condition in the bulk is sufficient to ensure this property. Here we proceed in the converse direction: we derive a necessary as well as sufficient condition for the preservation of boundary causality under perturbative (quantum or stringy) corrections to the bulk. The condition that we find is a (background-dependent) constraint on the amount by which light cones can "open" over all null bulk geodesics. We show that this constraint is weaker than the averaged null energy condition.

  19. Synergy, redundancy and unnormalized Granger causality

    CERN Document Server

    Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Cortés, Jesus M; Marinazzo, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    We analyze by means of Granger causality the effect of synergy and redundancy in the inference (from time series data) of the information flow between subsystems of a complex network. Whilst fully conditioned Granger causality is not affected by synergy, the pairwise analysis fails to put in evidence synergetic effects. We show that maximization of the total Granger causality to a given target, over all the possible partitions of the set of driving variables, puts in evidence redundant multiplets of variables influencing the target, provided that an {\\it unnormalized} definition of Granger causality is adopted. Along the same lines we also introduce a pairwise index of synergy (w.r.t. to information flow to a third variable) which is zero when two independent sources additively influence a common target, differently from previous definitions of synergy.

  20. The Scalar Curvature of a Causal Set

    CERN Document Server

    Benincasa, Dionigi M T

    2010-01-01

    A one parameter family of retarded linear operators on scalar fields on causal sets is introduced. When the causal set is well-approximated by 4 dimensional Minkowski spacetime, the operators are Lorentz invariant but nonlocal, are parametrised by the scale of the nonlocality and approximate the continuum scalar D'Alembertian, $\\Box$, when acting on fields that vary slowly on the nonlocality scale. The same operators can be applied to scalar fields on causal sets which are well-approximated by curved spacetimes in which case they approximate $\\Box - {{1/2}}R$ where $R$ is the Ricci scalar curvature. This can used to define an approximately local action functional for causal sets.

  1. Vitalistic causality in young children's naive biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inagaki, Kayoko; Hatano, Giyoo

    2004-08-01

    One of the key issues in conceptual development research concerns what kinds of causal devices young children use to understand the biological world. We review evidence that children predict and interpret biological phenomena, especially human bodily processes, on the basis of 'vitalistic causality'. That is, they assume that vital power or life force taken from food and water makes humans active, prevents them from being taken ill, and enables them to grow. These relationships are also extended readily to other animals and even to plants. Recent experimental results show that a majority of preschoolers tend to choose vitalistic explanations as most plausible. Vitalism, together with other forms of intermediate causality, constitute unique causal devices for naive biology as a core domain of thought.

  2. Investigating the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a mendelian randomization approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husemoen, L. L. N.; Skaaby, T.; Martinussen, Torben;

    2014-01-01

    Background/Objectives: The aim was to examine the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a multiple instrument Mendelian randomization approach. Subjects/Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and serum total or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin were measured in two Da...... a causal relationship.......Background/Objectives: The aim was to examine the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a multiple instrument Mendelian randomization approach. Subjects/Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and serum total or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin were measured in two...... doubling of 25(OH)D was 4.78, 95% CI: 1.96, 7.68, Pcausal effect in % was estimated to 61.46, 95% CI: 17.51, 120.28, P=0.003 higher adiponectin per doubling of 25(OH)D. In the MONICA10...

  3. The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-16

    The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department Los Angeles, CA...Handbook of Structural Equation Modeling . New York: Guilford Press. TECHNICAL REPORT R-370 February 2012 Report Documentation Page Form...COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

  4. Locally Causal Dynamical Triangulations in Two Dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Loll, Renate

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the universal properties of a new two-dimensional quantum gravity model defined in terms of Locally Causal Dynamical Triangulations (LCDT). Measuring the Hausdorff and spectral dimensions of the dynamical geometrical ensemble, we find numerical evidence that the continuum limit of the model lies in a new universality class of two-dimensional quantum gravity theories, inequivalent to both Euclidean and Causal Dynamical Triangulations.

  5. Causales de ausencia de responsabilidad penal

    OpenAIRE

    Jaime Sandoval Fernández

    2003-01-01

    Este trabajo se ocupa de las causales de ausencia de responsabilidad penal, especialmente de aquellas que tienen efecto en el injusto. Como subtemas se delimita el concepto de responsabilidad penal y su ausencia. Se estudian las principales teorias a cerca de la relación tipicidad-antijuridicidad y su incidencia en el derecho penal colombiano. Por último contiene una propuesta acerca de cómo deberian agruparse las causales del arto 32 C. PlOO.

  6. Causales de ausencia de responsabilidad penal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Sandoval Fernández

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo se ocupa de las causales de ausencia de responsabilidad penal, especialmente de aquellas que tienen efecto en el injusto. Como subtemas se delimita el concepto de responsabilidad penal y su ausencia. Se estudian las principales teorias a cerca de la relación tipicidad-antijuridicidad y su incidencia en el derecho penal colombiano. Por último contiene una propuesta acerca de cómo deberian agruparse las causales del arto 32 C. PlOO.

  7. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    OpenAIRE

    Klimidis Steven; Minas Harry; Tuncer Can

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbo...

  8. Causal Structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Izumi, Keisuke

    2014-01-01

    We analyze causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. It is known that Gauss-Bonnet gravity potentially has superluminal propagation of gravitons due to its non-canonical kinetic terms. In a theory with superluminal modes, an analysis of causality based on null curves makes no sense, and thus, we need to analyse them in a different way. In this paper, using the method of the characteristics, we analyze the causal structure in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We have the result that, on a Killing horizon, gravitons can propagate in the null direction tangent to the Killing horizon. Therefore, a Killing horizon can be a causal edge as in the case of general relativity, i.e. a Killing horizon is the "event horizon" in the sense of causality. We also analyze causal structures on dynamical solutions with $(D-2)$-dimensional maximal symmetry, including spherically symmetric and flat spaces. If the geometrical null energy condition, $R_{AB}N^AN^B \\ge 0$ for any null vector $N^A$, is satisfied, the radial velocity of gravitons ...

  9. Kant on causal laws and powers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henschen, Tobias

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

  10. INFLUENCIA DE LAS CONDICIONES DE INCUBACIÓN SOBRE LA ACTIVACIÓN DE ZOOSPORAS DE Spongospora subterranea, EN BUSCA DE UN INÓCULO PARA EL ESTUDIO DE LA SARNA POLVOSA INFLUENCE OF INCUBATION CONDITIONS ON THE ACTIVATION OF ZOOSPORES OF Spongospora subterranea, SEARCHING FOR AN INOCULUM TO THE STUDY OF THE POWDERY SCAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Beltrán Sánchez

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available La sarna polvosa es una enfermedad que decrece la producción de papa. Es causada por el parásito obligado Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea, el cual produce grupos de zoosporas enquistadas llamados quistosoros. Cuando las zoosporas están activas pueden infectar raíces y tubérculos iniciando un nuevo ciclo reproductivo. Para estudiar la influencia de las condiciones de incubación sobre la activación de las zoosporas, suspensiones acuosas de quistosoros fueron incubadas bajo diferentes condiciones. Los quistosoros y las zoosporas activas fueron diariamente contados utilizando microscopio óptico. El mayor número de zoosporas activas se encontró al cuarto día de incubación, mientras que el menor número de quistosoros se registró al quinto día de incubación. Esto sugiere que las zoosporas permanecen activas por un corto periodo. El número de zoosporas activas por quistosoro fue significativamente (PThe powdery scab is a disease that decreases potato production. It is caused by Spongospora subterranea f. sp. subterranea. This obligate parasite produces cystosori, which are groups of encysted zoospores. When these zoospores are active, they can infect roots and tubers initiating a new replication cycle. To investigate the influence of the incubation conditions on the zoospore activation, suspensions of cystosori in water were incubated under different conditions. The cystosori and the active zoospores were daily counted under microscope. The higher number of active zoospores was found after four days of incubation, meanwhile the lower number of cystosori was found after five days of incubation. This suggests that zoospores are active for a short period. The number of active zoospores per cystosorus was significantly (P<0.05 higher in tap water than in distillated water, and in presence of light than in dark. More zoospores per cystosorus were activated at 19 °C than at 5 °C, but potato roots did not have a significant (P<0

  11. Preschoolers prefer to learn causal information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aubry eAlvarez

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Young children, in general, appear to have a strong drive to explore the environment in ways that reveal its underlying causal structure. But are they really attuned specifically to casual information in this quest for understanding, or do they show equal interest in other types of non-obvious information about the world? To answer this question, we introduced 20 three-year-old children to two puppets who were anxious to tell the child about a set of novel artifacts and animals. One puppet consistently described causal properties of the items while the other puppet consistently described carefully matched non-causal properties of the same items. After a familiarization period in which children learned which type of information to expect from each informant, children were given the opportunity to choose which they wanted to hear describe each of eight pictured test items. On average, children chose to hear from the informant that provided causal descriptions on 72% of the trials. This preference for causal information has important implications for explaining the role of conceptual information in supporting early learning and may suggest means for maximizing interest and motivation in young children.

  12. Causal impressions: predicting when, not just whether.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Michael E; Rogers, Ester T; Beckmann, Joshua S

    2005-03-01

    In 1739, David Hume established the so-called cues to causality--environmental cues that are important to the inference of causality. Although this descriptive account has been corroborated experimentally, it has not been established why these cues are useful, except that they may reflect statistical regularities in the environment. One of the cues to causality, covariation, helps predict whether an effect will occur, but not its time of occurrence. In the present study, evidence is provided that spatial and temporal contiguity improve an observer's ability to predict when an effect will occur, thus complementing the utility of covariation as a predictor of whether an effect will occur. While observing Michotte's (1946/1963) launching effect, participants showed greater accuracy and precision in their predictions of the onset of movement by the launched object when there was spatial and temporal contiguity. Furthermore, when auditory cues that bridged a delayed launch were included, causal ratings and predictability were similarly affected. These results suggest that the everyday inference of causality relies on our ability to predict whether and when an effect will occur.

  13. Reducing the Bias of Causality Measures

    CERN Document Server

    Papana, A; Larsson, P G

    2011-01-01

    Measures of the direction and strength of the interdependence between two time series are evaluated and modified in order to reduce the bias in the estimation of the measures, so that they give zero values when there is no causal effect. For this, point shuffling is employed as used in the frame of surrogate data. This correction is not specific to a particular measure and it is implemented here on measures based on state space reconstruction and information measures. The performance of the causality measures and their modifications is evaluated on simulated uncoupled and coupled dynamical systems and for different settings of embedding dimension, time series length and noise level. The corrected measures, and particularly the suggested corrected transfer entropy, turn out to stabilize at the zero level in the absence of causal effect and detect correctly the direction of information flow when it is present. The measures are also evaluated on electroencephalograms (EEG) for the detection of the information fl...

  14. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  15. Noncommutative geometry, Lorentzian structures and causality

    CERN Document Server

    Franco, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    The theory of noncommutative geometry provides an interesting mathematical background for developing new physical models. In particular, it allows one to describe the classical Standard Model coupled to Euclidean gravity. However, noncommutative geometry has mainly been developed using the Euclidean signature, and the typical Lorentzian aspects of space-time, the causal structure in particular, are not taken into account. We present an extension of noncommutative geometry \\`a la Connes suitable the for accommodation of Lorentzian structures. In this context, we show that it is possible to recover the notion of causality from purely algebraic data. We explore the causal structure of a simple toy model based on an almost commutative geometry and we show that the coupling between the space-time and an internal noncommutative space establishes a new `speed of light constraint'.

  16. Causal binding of actions to their effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehner, Marc J; Humphreys, Gruffydd R

    2009-10-01

    According to widely held views in cognitive science harking back to David Hume, causality cannot be perceived directly, but instead is inferred from patterns of sensory experience, and the quality of these inferences is determined by perceivable quantities such as contingency and contiguity. We report results that suggest a reversal of Hume's conjecture: People's sense of time is warped by the experience of causality. In a stimulus-anticipation task, participants' response behavior reflected a shortened experience of time in the case of target stimuli participants themselves had generated, relative to equidistant, equally predictable stimuli they had not caused. These findings suggest that causality in the mind leads to temporal binding of cause and effect, and extend and generalize beyond earlier claims of intentional binding between action and outcome.

  17. Causal inheritence in plane wave quotients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

    2003-11-24

    We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general spacetime to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp-waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave spacetimes. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality.

  18. Diabetes: the layperson's theories of causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado-Martinez, Francisco J; Ramos-Herrera, Igor Martin

    2002-07-01

    The authors examine laypersons' perspectives of illness: the content of causal explanations of diabetes and differences in explanations according to gender. Qualitative research was carried out in Guadalajara, Mexico. A nonprobabilistic sample of 20 diabetic individuals participated in interviews, and the content of the interviews was analyzed. On the origin of their condition, participants offered explanations that match neither the biomedical model nor any other formal causal theory. Participants attributed the onset of diabetes to socioemotional circumstances linked to their life experiences and practices. Men attributed causality to work and social circumstances outside the home; women attributed it to family life and domestic circumstances. The authors discuss how lay theories can be useful for the reorganization of health services.

  19. [Clinical research III. The causality studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talavera, Juan O; Wacher-Rodarte, Niels H; Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo

    2011-01-01

    The need to solve a clinical problem leads us to establish a starting point to address (risk, prognosis or treatment studies), all these cases seek to attribute causality. Clinical reasoning described in the book Clinical Epidemiology. The architecture of clinical research, offers a simple guide to understanding this phenomenon. And proposes three basic components: baseline, maneuver and outcome. In this model, different systematic errors (bias) are described, which may be favored by omitting characteristics of the three basic components. Thus, omissions in the baseline characteristics cause an improper assembly of the population and susceptibility bias, omissions in the application or evaluation of the maneuver provoke performance bias, and omissions in the assessment of out-come cause detection bias and transfer bias. Importantly, if this way of thinking facilitates understanding of the causal phenomenon, the appropriateness of the variables to be selected in the studies to which attribute or not causality, require additional arguments for evaluate clinical relevance.

  20. Causality, initial conditions and inflationary magnetogenesis

    CERN Document Server

    Tsagas, Christos G

    2016-01-01

    The post-inflationary evolution of inflation-produced magnetic fields, conventional or not, can change dramatically when two fundamental issues are accounted for. The first is causality, which demands that local physical processes can never affect superhorizon perturbations. The second is the nature of the transition from inflation to reheating and then to the radiation era, which determine the initial conditions at the start of these epochs. Technically, the latter issue can be addressed by appealing to Israel's junction conditions. Causality implies that inflationary magnetic fields dot not freeze into the matter until they have re-entered the causal horizon. The nature of cosmological transitions and the associated initial conditions, on the other hand, determine the large-scale magnetic evolution after inflation. Put together, the two can slow down the adiabatic decay of superhorizon-sized magnetic fields throughout their post-inflationary life and thus lead to considerably stronger residual strengths. Th...

  1. Metrics and causality on Moyal planes

    CERN Document Server

    Franco, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Metrics structures stemming from the Connes distance promote Moyal planes to the status of quantum metric spaces. We discuss this aspect in the light of recent developments, emphasizing the role of Moyal planes as representative examples of a recently introduced notion of quantum (noncommutative) locally compact space. We move then to the framework of Lorentzian noncommutative geometry and we examine the possibility of defining a notion of causality on Moyal plane, which is somewhat controversial in the area of mathematical physics. We show the actual existence of causal relations between the elements of a particular class of pure (coherent) states on Moyal plane with related causal structure similar to the one of the usual Minkowski space, up to the notion of locality.

  2. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian;

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...... injections in intermediate-to-strongly coupled systems could enable more accurate causal inferences. Given the inherent noisy nature of real-world systems, our findings enable a more accurate evaluation of CCM applicability and advance suggestions on how to overcome its weaknesses....

  3. Causality bounds for neutron-proton scattering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elhatisari, S.; Lee, D. [North Carolina State University, Department of Physics, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2012-08-15

    We consider the constraints of causality and unitarity for the low-energy interactions of protons and neutrons. We derive a general theorem that non-vanishing partial-wave mixing cannot be reproduced with zero-range interactions without violating causality or unitarity. We define and calculate interaction length scales which we call the causal range and the Cauchy-Schwarz range for all spin channels up to J=3. For some channels we find that these length scales are as large as 5fm. We investigate the origin of these large lengths and discuss their significance for the choice of momentum cutoff scales in effective field theory and universality in many-body Fermi systems. (orig.)

  4. Causalities of the Taiwan stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Julian Juhi-Lian

    2003-06-01

    Volatility, fitting with first-order Landau expansion, stationarity, and causality of the Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) are investigated based on daily records. Instead of consensuses that consider stock market index change as a random time series we propose the market change as a dual time series consists of the index and the corresponding volume. Therefore, causalities between these two time series are investigated. Our results suggest the volume time series is of second-order importance than the index time series. The index time series receives slightly stronger influence from the previous 67th trading day, while the volume time series is slightly stronger influenced by the previous 62nd trading day.

  5. Dynamics and causality constraints in field theory

    CERN Document Server

    De Souza, M M

    1997-01-01

    We discuss the physical meaning and the geometric interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories. Causality is normally implemented through kinematical constraints on fields but we show that in a zero-distance limit they also carry a dynamical information, which calls for a revision of our standard concepts of interacting fields. The origin of infinities and other inconsistencies in field theories is traced to fields defined with support on the lightcone; a finite and consistent field theory requires a lightcone generator as the field support.

  6. Cosmic Time Machines: the Causality Issue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Fernando de

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Continued gravitational collapse gives rise to curvature singularities. If a curvature singularity is globally naked then the space-time may be causally future illbehaved admitting closed time-like or null curves which extend to asymptotic distances and generate a Cosmic Time Machine (de Felice (1995 Lecture Notes in Physics 455, 99 [6]. The existence of Cosmic Time Machines makes it plausible the violation of causality. I conjecture that this circumstance is prevented by some, yet unknown, physical process and show that such a mechanism indeed exists in the Kerr spacetime.

  7. Are bruxism and the bite causally related?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lobbezoo, F.; Ahlberg, J.; Manfredini, D.; Winocur, E.

    2012-01-01

    In the dental profession, the belief that bruxism and dental (mal-)occlusion (‘the bite’) are causally related is widespread. The aim of this review was to critically assess the available literature on this topic. A PubMed search of the English-language literature, using the query ‘Bruxism [Majr] AN

  8. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  9. On Measurement Bias in Causal Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Pearl, Judea

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of measurement errors in causal inference and highlights several algebraic and graphical methods for eliminating systematic bias induced by such errors. In particulars, the paper discusses the control of partially observable confounders in parametric and non parametric models and the computational problem of obtaining bias-free effect estimates in such models.

  10. Causal Poisson bracket via deformation quantization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berra-Montiel, Jasel; Molgado, Alberto; Palacios-García, César D.

    2016-06-01

    Starting with the well-defined product of quantum fields at two spacetime points, we explore an associated Poisson structure for classical field theories within the deformation quantization formalism. We realize that the induced star-product is naturally related to the standard Moyal product through an appropriate causal Green’s functions connecting points in the space of classical solutions to the equations of motion. Our results resemble the Peierls-DeWitt bracket that has been analyzed in the multisymplectic context. Once our star-product is defined, we are able to apply the Wigner-Weyl map in order to introduce a generalized version of Wick’s theorem. Finally, we include some examples to explicitly test our method: the real scalar field, the bosonic string and a physically motivated nonlinear particle model. For the field theoretic models, we have encountered causal generalizations of the creation/annihilation relations, and also a causal generalization of the Virasoro algebra for the bosonic string. For the nonlinear particle case, we use the approximate solution in terms of the Green’s function, in order to construct a well-behaved causal bracket.

  11. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueblood, Jennifer S; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  12. Inductive Reasoning about Causally Transmitted Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2008-01-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates'…

  13. Objective reality, causality and the aspect experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pegg, D. T.

    1980-08-01

    It is argued that, in the framework of Wheeler-Feynman electrodynamics objective reality and causality in the strict sense are consistent with the outcome of atomic cascade photon correlation experiments, provided this outcome is not altered by the Aspect experimental modification.

  14. Introducing Mechanics by Tapping Core Causal Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaassen, Kees; Westra, Axel; Emmett, Katrina; Eijkelhof, Harrie; Lijnse, Piet

    2008-01-01

    This article concerns an outline of an introductory mechanics course. It is based on the argument that various uses of the concept of force (e.g. from Kepler, Newton and everyday life) share an explanatory strategy based on core causal knowledge. The strategy consists of (a) the idea that a force causes a deviation from how an object would move of…

  15. Pride and Prejudice and Causal Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Nick; Chamberlain, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas' (2016) paper in "Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives" (hereafter referred to as ARM2016) is an important and timely piece of scholarship, in that it provides strong analytic support to the growing theoretical literature that questions the underlying ideas behind causal and…

  16. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform disor

  17. Marriage and Anomie: A Causal Argument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Gary R.

    1974-01-01

    A sample of 394 married couples is employed to test the possibility of an association between marital satisfaction and personal (attitudinal) anomie. The hypothesis is supported. Conclusions are offered relevant to anomie theory, and to utilization of marital and family phenomena as independent variables in causal explanations of nonfamily events.…

  18. Causality and the speed of sound

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, G; MacCallum, M; Callum, Malcolm Mac; Ellis, George; Maartens, Roy

    2007-01-01

    A usual causal requirement on a viable theory of matter is that the speed of sound be at most the speed of light. In view of various recent papers querying this limit, the question is revisited here. We point to various issues confronting theories that violate the usual constraint.

  19. A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

  20. Causality in the Semantics of Esterel: Revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Mousavi, MohammadReza

    2010-01-01

    We re-examine the challenges concerning causality in the semantics of Esterel and show that they pertain to the known issues in the semantics of Structured Operational Semantics with negative premises. We show that the solutions offered for the semantics of SOS also provide answers to the semantic challenges of Esterel and that they satisfy the intuitive requirements set by the language designers.

  1. Causal Meta-Analysis : Methodology and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bax, L.J.

    2009-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a statistical method to summarize research data from multiple studies in a quantitative manner. This dissertation addresses a number of methodological topics in causal meta-analysis and reports the development and validation of meta-analysis software. In the first (methodological) p

  2. Causal and Teleological Explanations in Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cheng-Wai

    2009-01-01

    A causal explanation in biology focuses on the mechanism by which a biological process is brought about, whereas a teleological explanation considers the end result, in the context of the survival of the organism, as a reason for certain biological processes or structures. There is a tendency among students to offer a teleological explanation…

  3. The metagenomic approach and causality in virology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana Beres Castrignano

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the metagenomic approach has been a very important tool in the discovery of new viruses in environmental and biological samples. Here we discuss how these discoveries may help to elucidate the etiology of diseases and the criteria necessary to establish a causal association between a virus and a disease.

  4. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  5. Geometry of the Infalling Causal Patch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freivogel, B.; Jefferson, R.A.; Kabir, L.; Yang, I.S.

    2015-01-01

    The firewall paradox states that an observer falling into an old black hole must see a violation of unitarity, locality, or the equivalence principle. Motivated by this remarkable conflict, we analyze the causal structure of black hole spacetimes in order to determine whether all the necessary ingre

  6. Sequential causal learning in humans and rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Lu; R.R. Rojas; T. Beckers; A. Yuille

    2008-01-01

    Recent experiments (Beckers, De Houwer, Pineño, & Miller, 2005;Beckers, Miller, De Houwer, & Urushihara, 2006) have shown that pretraining with unrelated cues can dramatically influence the performance of humans in a causal learning paradigm and rats in a standard Pavlovian conditioning paradigm. Su

  7. Spectral Dimension from Causal Set Nonlocal Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Belenchia, Alessio; Marciano, Antonino; Modesto, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the spectral dimension obtained from non-local continuum d'Alembertians derived from causal sets. We find a universal dimensional reduction to 2 dimensions, in all dimensions. We conclude by discussing the validity and relevance of our results within the broader context of quantum field theories based on these nonlocal dynamics.

  8. From causality to time and back

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minguzzi, Ettore, E-mail: ettore.minguzzi@unifi.i [Dipartimento di Matematica Applicata, Universita degli Studi di Firenze, Via S. Marta 3, I-50139 Firenze (Italy)

    2010-05-01

    In this work the problem of the existence of a (semi-)time function on spacetime is investigated together with the problem of recovering the causal structure from the set of time functions allowed by the spacetime. These problems are solved thanks also to a mathematical correspondence with utility theory.

  9. Linear Response Laws and Causality in Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuffa, Alex J.; Scales, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Linear response laws and causality (the effect cannot precede the cause) are of fundamental importance in physics. In the context of classical electrodynamics, students often have a difficult time grasping these concepts because the physics is obscured by the intermingling of the time and frequency domains. In this paper, we analyse the linear…

  10. The metagenomic approach and causality in virology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castrignano, Silvana Beres; Nagasse-Sugahara, Teresa Keico

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, the metagenomic approach has been a very important tool in the discovery of new viruses in environmental and biological samples. Here we discuss how these discoveries may help to elucidate the etiology of diseases and the criteria necessary to establish a causal association between a virus and a disease. PMID:25902566

  11. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  12. Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

    2014-06-01

    We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning.

  13. Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century.

  14. Causal inference algorithms can be useful in life course epidemiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    la Bastide-van Gemert, Sacha; Stolk, Ronald P.; van den Heuvel, Edwin R.; Fidler, Vaclav

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Life course epidemiology attempts to unravel causal relationships between variables observed over time. Causal relationships can be represented as directed acyclic graphs. This article explains the theoretical concepts of the search algorithms used for finding such representations, discu

  15. Exploratory Causal Analysis in Bivariate Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCracken, James M.

    Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments and data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from observational data. This need has lead to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. In this thesis, the existing time series causality method of CCM is extended by introducing a new method called pairwise asymmetric inference (PAI). It is found that CCM may provide counter-intuitive causal inferences for simple dynamics with strong intuitive notions of causality, and the CCM causal inference can be a function of physical parameters that are seemingly unrelated to the existence of a driving relationship in the system. For example, a CCM causal inference might alternate between ''voltage drives current'' and ''current drives voltage'' as the frequency of the voltage signal is changed in a series circuit with a single resistor and inductor. PAI is introduced to address both of these limitations. Many of the current approaches in the times series causality literature are not computationally straightforward to apply, do not follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, depend on assumed models for the time series generating process, or rely on embedding procedures. A new approach, called causal leaning, is introduced in this work to avoid these issues. The leaning is found to provide causal inferences that agree with intuition for both simple systems and more complicated empirical examples, including space weather data sets. The leaning may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in times series data

  16. Institutional Investors and Stock Market Development: A Causality Study

    OpenAIRE

    Guler Aras; Alovsat Muslumov

    2008-01-01

    This article examines causality relationships between institutional investors and stock market development based on the panel data compiled from 23 OECD countries for the years 1982 through 2000. In order to test causality relationship, Sims’ causality test based on Granger definition of causality was used in our study. Our empirical results provide evidence that there are statistically significant positive relationship between institutional investors and stock market development. The develop...

  17. Assessing statistical significance in causal graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chindelevitch Leonid

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Causal graphs are an increasingly popular tool for the analysis of biological datasets. In particular, signed causal graphs--directed graphs whose edges additionally have a sign denoting upregulation or downregulation--can be used to model regulatory networks within a cell. Such models allow prediction of downstream effects of regulation of biological entities; conversely, they also enable inference of causative agents behind observed expression changes. However, due to their complex nature, signed causal graph models present special challenges with respect to assessing statistical significance. In this paper we frame and solve two fundamental computational problems that arise in practice when computing appropriate null distributions for hypothesis testing. Results First, we show how to compute a p-value for agreement between observed and model-predicted classifications of gene transcripts as upregulated, downregulated, or neither. Specifically, how likely are the classifications to agree to the same extent under the null distribution of the observed classification being randomized? This problem, which we call "Ternary Dot Product Distribution" owing to its mathematical form, can be viewed as a generalization of Fisher's exact test to ternary variables. We present two computationally efficient algorithms for computing the Ternary Dot Product Distribution and investigate its combinatorial structure analytically and numerically to establish computational complexity bounds. Second, we develop an algorithm for efficiently performing random sampling of causal graphs. This enables p-value computation under a different, equally important null distribution obtained by randomizing the graph topology but keeping fixed its basic structure: connectedness and the positive and negative in- and out-degrees of each vertex. We provide an algorithm for sampling a graph from this distribution uniformly at random. We also highlight theoretical

  18. Interpretational Confounding or Confounded Interpretations of Causal Indicators?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bainter, Sierra A.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2014-01-01

    In measurement theory, causal indicators are controversial and little understood. Methodological disagreement concerning causal indicators has centered on the question of whether causal indicators are inherently sensitive to interpretational confounding, which occurs when the empirical meaning of a latent construct departs from the meaning…

  19. Causal Relations and Feature Similarity in Children's Inductive Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Brett K.; Thompson, Susan P.

    2007-01-01

    Four experiments examined the development of property induction on the basis of causal relations. In the first 2 studies, 5-year-olds, 8-year-olds, and adults were presented with triads in which a target instance was equally similar to 2 inductive bases but shared a causal antecedent feature with 1 of them. All 3 age groups used causal relations…

  20. The Effect of Causal Diagrams on Text Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrudden, Matthew T.; Schraw, Gregory; Lehman, Stephen; Poliquin, Anne

    2007-01-01

    We examined the effect of studying a causal diagram on comprehension of causal relationships from an expository science text. A causal diagram is a type of visual display that explicitly represents cause-effect relationships. In Experiment 1, readers between conditions did not differ with respect to memory for main ideas, but the readers who…

  1. Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Urreta, Miguel I.; Rönkkö, Mikko; Marakas, George M.

    2016-01-01

    One of the central assumptions of the causal-indicator literature is that all causal indicators must be included in the research model and that the exclusion of one or more relevant causal indicators would have severe negative consequences by altering the meaning of the latent variable. In this research we show that the omission of a relevant…

  2. Rationales in Children's Causal Learning from Others' Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, David M.; Sommerville, Jessica A.

    2009-01-01

    Shown commensurate actions and information by an adult, preschoolers' causal learning was influenced by the pedagogical context in which these actions occurred. Four-year-olds who were provided with a reason for an experimenter's action relevant to learning causal structure showed more accurate causal learning than children exposed to the same…

  3. Implications of the Changing Conversation about Causality for Evaluators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Emily; Dyson, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    Making causal claims is central to evaluation practice because we want to know the effects of a program, project, or policy. In the past decade, the conversation about establishing causal claims has become prominent (and problematic). In response to this changing conversation about causality, we argue that evaluators need to take up some new ways…

  4. How to Be Causal: Time, Spacetime and Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsler, Paul

    2011-01-01

    I explain a simple definition of causality in widespread use, and indicate how it links to the Kramers-Kronig relations. The specification of causality in terms of temporal differential equations then shows us the way to write down dynamical models so that their causal nature "in the sense used here" should be obvious to all. To extend existing…

  5. A Quantitative Causal Model Theory of Conditional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Erb, Christopher D.

    2013-01-01

    The authors propose and test a causal model theory of reasoning about conditional arguments with causal content. According to the theory, the acceptability of modus ponens (MP) and affirming the consequent (AC) reflect the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Acceptability…

  6. Toward an Intersectional Understanding of Process Causality and Social Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Gary L.; Scott, Janelle

    2012-01-01

    Maxwell and Donmoyer both argue in this issue of "Qualitative Inquiry" that narrow definitions of causality in educational research tend to disqualify qualitative research from influence (and funding) among policy makers. They propose a process view of causality that would allow qualitative researchers to make causal claims more grounded in the…

  7. Normalizing the causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula has been derived to evaluate the information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing three types of fundamental mechanisms that govern the marginal entropy change of the flow recipient. A normalized or relative flow measures its importance relative to other mechanisms. In analyzing realistic series, both absolute and relative information flows need to be taken into account, since the normalizers for a pair of reverse flows belong to two different entropy balances; it is quite normal that two identical flows may differ a lot in relative importance in their respective balances. We have reproduced these results with several autoregressive models. We have also shown applications to a climate change problem and a financial analysis problem. For the former, reconfirmed is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole as ...

  8. Finite quantum electrodynamics the causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Scharf, Günter

    2014-01-01

    In this classic text for advanced undergraduates and graduate students of physics, author Günter Scharf carefully analyzes the role of causality in quantum electrodynamics. His approach offers full proofs and detailed calculations of scattering processes in a mathematically rigorous manner. This third edition contains Scharf's revisions and corrections plus a brief new Epilogue on gauge invariance of quantum electrodynamics to all orders. The book begins with Dirac's theory, followed by the quantum theory of free fields and causal perturbation theory, a powerful method that avoids ultraviolet divergences and solves the infrared problem by means of the adiabatic limit. Successive chapters explore properties of the S-matrix — such as renormalizability, gauge invariance, and unitarity — the renormalization group, and interactive fields. Additional topics include electromagnetic couplings and the extension of the methods to non-abelian gauge theories. Each chapter is supplemented with problems, and four appe...

  9. Consistence beats causality in recommender systems

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Xuzhen; Hu, Zheng; Zhang, Ping; Zhou, Tao

    2015-01-01

    The explosive growth of information challenges people's capability in finding out items fitting to their own interests. Recommender systems provide an efficient solution by automatically push possibly relevant items to users according to their past preferences. Recommendation algorithms usually embody the causality from what having been collected to what should be recommended. In this article, we argue that in many cases, a user's interests are stable, and thus the previous and future preferences are highly consistent. The temporal order of collections then does not necessarily imply a causality relationship. We further propose a consistence-based algorithm that outperforms the state-of-the-art recommendation algorithms in disparate real data sets, including \\textit{Netflix}, \\textit{MovieLens}, \\textit{Amazon} and \\textit{Rate Your Music}.

  10. Localizing epileptic seizure onsets with Granger causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Bhim M.; Epstein, Charles M.; Dhamala, Mukesh

    2013-09-01

    Accurate localization of the epileptic seizure onset zones (SOZs) is crucial for successful surgery, which usually depends on the information obtained from intracranial electroencephalography (IEEG) recordings. The visual criteria and univariate methods of analyzing IEEG recordings have not always produced clarity on the SOZs for resection and ultimate seizure freedom for patients. Here, to contribute to improving the localization of the SOZs and to understanding the mechanism of seizure propagation over the brain, we applied spectral interdependency methods to IEEG time series recorded from patients during seizures. We found that the high-frequency (>80 Hz) Granger causality (GC) occurs before the onset of any visible ictal activity and causal relationships involve the recording electrodes where clinically identifiable seizures later develop. These results suggest that high-frequency oscillatory network activities precede and underlie epileptic seizures, and that GC spectral measures derived from IEEG can assist in precise delineation of seizure onset times and SOZs.

  11. A new spin on causality constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Thomas; Jain, Sachin; Kundu, Sandipan

    2016-10-01

    Causality in a shockwave state is related to the analytic properties of a four-point correlation function. Extending recent results for scalar probes, we show that this constrains the couplings of the stress tensor to light spinning operators in conformal field theory, and interpret these constraints in terms of the interaction with null energy. For spin-1 and spin-2 conserved currents in four dimensions, the resulting inequalities are a subset of the Hofman-Maldacena conditions for positive energy deposition. It is well known that energy conditions in holographic theories are related to causality on the gravity side; our results make a connection on the CFT side, and extend it to non-holographic theories.

  12. A New Spin on Causality Constraints

    CERN Document Server

    Hartman, Thomas; Kundu, Sandipan

    2016-01-01

    Causality in a shockwave state is related to the analytic properties of a four-point correlation function. Extending recent results for scalar probes, we show that this constrains the couplings of the stress tensor to light spinning operators in conformal field theory, and interpret these constraints in terms of the interaction with null energy. For spin-1 and spin-2 conserved currents in four dimensions, the resulting inequalities are a subset of the Hofman-Maldacena conditions for positive energy deposition. It is well known that energy conditions in holographic theories are related to causality on the gravity side; our results make a connection on the CFT side, and extend it to non-holographic theories.

  13. Confounding and Collapsibility in Causal Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Greenland, Sander; Robins, James M; Pearl, Judea

    1999-01-01

    Consideration of confounding is fundamental to the design and analysis of studies of causal effects. Yet, apart from confounding in experimental designs, the topic is given little or no discussion in most statistics texts. We here provide an overview of confounding and related concepts based on a counterfactual model for causation. Special attention is given to definitions of confounding, problems in control of confounding, the relation of confounding to exchangeability and ...

  14. A Study of Causality in Military Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-08

    Regional and local governance established Establish police forces training Counter organized crime Integrate trained police into operations...richer way to think about causality in military planning and operations. Uncovering an ontology has become an increasingly employed tactic in...political theory.21 In this context, an ontology is simply a way in which the world is viewed, “the most basic conceptualizations of self, other, and

  15. Consistence beats causality in recommender systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, Xuzhen; Tian, Hui; Hu, Zheng; Zhang, Ping; Zhou, Tao

    2015-01-01

    The explosive growth of information challenges people's capability in finding out items fitting to their own interests. Recommender systems provide an efficient solution by automatically push possibly relevant items to users according to their past preferences. Recommendation algorithms usually embody the causality from what having been collected to what should be recommended. In this article, we argue that in many cases, a user's interests are stable, and thus the previous and future prefere...

  16. Isocausal spacetimes may have different causal boundaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores, J L; Herrera, J [Departamento de Algebra, Geometria y Topologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Malaga, Campus Teatinos, 29071 Malaga (Spain); Sanchez, M, E-mail: floresj@agt.cie.uma.es, E-mail: jherrera@uma.es, E-mail: sanchezm@ugr.es [Departamento de Geometria y Topologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Avenida Fuentenueva s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain)

    2011-09-07

    We construct an example which shows that two isocausal spacetimes, in the sense introduced recently in GarcIa-Parrado and Senovilla (2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64), may have c-boundaries which are not equal (more precisely, not equivalent, as no bijection between the completions can preserve all the binary relations induced by causality). This example also suggests that isocausality can be useful for the understanding and computation of the c-boundary.

  17. Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how cau......, and we illustrate our arguments and our method using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) data....

  18. Assessing Causality in a Complex Security Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Fidel Castro popular revolt. Of course, the Bay of Pigs invasion was a disastrous failure, one that humiliated the new President. The NIE went as...and place great reliance on it. The Castro regime is steadily losing popularity. . . . housewives and servants must stand in line for hours to...was evaluating the possibility of an anti- Castro uprising. What is the causal connection between soap lines and a readiness to spontane- ously

  19. Waves and causality in higher dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Wesson, Paul S

    2015-01-01

    We give a new, wave-like solution of the field equations of five-dimensional relativity. In ordinary three-dimensional space, the waves resemble de Broglie or matter waves, whose puzzling behaviour can be better understood in terms of one or more extra dimensions. Causality is appropriately defined by a null higher-dimensional interval. It may be possible to test the properties of these waves in the laboratory.

  20. Imposing causality on a matrix model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benedetti, Dario [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline St. N, N2L 2Y5, Waterloo ON (Canada)], E-mail: dbenedetti@perimeterinstitute.ca; Henson, Joe [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline St. N, N2L 2Y5, Waterloo ON (Canada)

    2009-07-13

    We introduce a new matrix model that describes Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in two dimensions. In order to do so, we introduce a new, simpler definition of 2D CDT and show it to be equivalent to the old one. The model makes use of ideas from dually weighted matrix models, combined with multi-matrix models, and can be studied by the method of character expansion.

  1. Waves and causality in higher dimensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wesson, Paul S., E-mail: psw.papers@yahoo.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 (Canada); Overduin, James M., E-mail: joverduin@towson.edu [Department of Physics, Astronomy and Geosciences, Towson University, Towson, MD, 21252 (United States); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD, 21218 (United States)

    2015-11-12

    We give a new, wave-like solution of the field equations of five-dimensional relativity. In ordinary three-dimensional space, the waves resemble de Broglie or matter waves, whose puzzling behaviour can be better understood in terms of one or more extra dimensions. Causality is appropriately defined by a null higher-dimensional interval. It may be possible to test the properties of these waves in the laboratory.

  2. Bayesian Discovery of Linear Acyclic Causal Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hoyer, Patrik O

    2012-01-01

    Methods for automated discovery of causal relationships from non-interventional data have received much attention recently. A widely used and well understood model family is given by linear acyclic causal models (recursive structural equation models). For Gaussian data both constraint-based methods (Spirtes et al., 1993; Pearl, 2000) (which output a single equivalence class) and Bayesian score-based methods (Geiger and Heckerman, 1994) (which assign relative scores to the equivalence classes) are available. On the contrary, all current methods able to utilize non-Gaussianity in the data (Shimizu et al., 2006; Hoyer et al., 2008) always return only a single graph or a single equivalence class, and so are fundamentally unable to express the degree of certainty attached to that output. In this paper we develop a Bayesian score-based approach able to take advantage of non-Gaussianity when estimating linear acyclic causal models, and we empirically demonstrate that, at least on very modest size networks, its accur...

  3. [Causality in cardiology: concepts in evolution].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Gustavo F

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes several concepts about causality from Empedocles, Aristoteles and Galeno, to Koch and Hill and the evolution of these concepts related to cardiovascular diseases. Also defines cause and risk, and the philosophical theories about scientific knowledge: inductive versus refutation analysis. On these basis, the study of cardiovascular disease's causality, especially coronary heart disease, allows us the identification of several risk factors involved in its development. However, even with the presently coronary heart disease risk charts (from Framingham and European studies) the higher probability for the development of a cardiovascular ischemic event is around 40%, establishing an important degree of uncertainty. With the improvement in molecular biology techniques, genetics have attempted to analyse several genetic polymorphisms in search of the origin of coronary heart disease. Unfortunately, less than 10% of these polymorphisms have had a positive correlation with coronary heart disease being of minor risk that those obtained for having the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus or hypercholesterolemia. On these basis, the requirement of new population research projects in which clinical and genetic risk factors are to be studied for the appropriate understanding of the causality process of cardiovascular diseases must be a worldwide priority.

  4. A causal dispositional account of fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviño, Vanessa; Nuño de la Rosa, Laura

    2016-09-01

    The notion of fitness is usually equated to reproductive success. However, this actualist approach presents some difficulties, mainly the explanatory circularity problem, which have lead philosophers of biology to offer alternative definitions in which fitness and reproductive success are distinguished. In this paper, we argue  that none of these alternatives is satisfactory and, inspired by Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation, we offer a definition of fitness as a causal dispositional property. We argue that, under this framework, the distinctiveness that biologists usually attribute to fitness-namely, the fact that fitness is something different from both the physical traits of an organism and the number of offspring it leaves-can be explained, and the main problems associated with the concept of fitness can be solved. Firstly, we introduce Mumford and Anjum's dispositional theory of causation and present our definition of fitness as a causal disposition. We explain in detail each of the elements involved in our definition, namely: the relationship between fitness and the functional dispositions that compose it, the emergent character of fitness, and the context-sensitivity of fitness. Finally, we explain how fitness and realized fitness, as well as expected and realized fitness are distinguished in our approach to fitness as a causal disposition.

  5. Information causality from an entropic and a probabilistic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Safi, Sabri W.; Short, Anthony J. [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    The information causality principle is a generalization of the no-signaling principle which implies some of the known restrictions on quantum correlations. But despite its clear physical motivation, information causality is formulated in terms of a rather specialized game and figure of merit. We explore different perspectives on information causality, discussing the probability of success as the figure of merit, a relation between information causality and the nonlocal ''inner-product game,'' and the derivation of a quadratic bound for these games. We then examine an entropic formulation of information causality with which one can obtain the same results, arguably in a simpler fashion.

  6. Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Causality Testing in Heterogenous Panels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Maddison; Katrin Rehdanz [Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-30

    Numerous papers have examined data on energy and GDP for evidence of Granger causality. Using time series techniques these analyses not infrequently reach differing conclusions concerning the existence and direction of Granger causality. This paper presents a heterogenous panel approach to Granger causality testing. This technique is used to examine a panel of data for evidence of a causal relationship between GDP and carbon emissions per capita allowing for heterogeneity in short run dynamics and even the long run cointegrating vector. This technique is compared to the standard fixed dynamic effects approach to pooling individual error correction models. In one important case the heterogenous panel test for Granger causality reaches conclusions quite different to those from conventional tests of Granger causality. Except for Asia there is strong evidence for the existence of a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP per capita and CO{sub 2} emissions per capita.

  7. Emergent Geometry from Entropy and Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Netta

    In this thesis, we investigate the connections between the geometry of spacetime and aspects of quantum field theory such as entanglement entropy and causality. This work is motivated by the idea that spacetime geometry is an emergent phenomenon in quantum gravity, and that the physics responsible for this emergence is fundamental to quantum field theory. Part I of this thesis is focused on the interplay between spacetime and entropy, with a special emphasis on entropy due to entanglement. In general spacetimes, there exist locally-defined surfaces sensitive to the geometry that may act as local black hole boundaries or cosmological horizons; these surfaces, known as holographic screens, are argued to have a connection with the second law of thermodynamics. Holographic screens obey an area law, suggestive of an association with entropy; they are also distinguished surfaces from the perspective of the covariant entropy bound, a bound on the total entropy of a slice of the spacetime. This construction is shown to be quite general, and is formulated in both classical and perturbatively quantum theories of gravity. The remainder of Part I uses the Anti-de Sitter/ Conformal Field Theory (AdS/CFT) correspondence to both expand and constrain the connection between entanglement entropy and geometry. The AdS/CFT correspondence posits an equivalence between string theory in the "bulk" with AdS boundary conditions and certain quantum field theories. In the limit where the string theory is simply classical General Relativity, the Ryu-Takayanagi and more generally, the Hubeny-Rangamani-Takayanagi (HRT) formulae provide a way of relating the geometry of surfaces to entanglement entropy. A first-order bulk quantum correction to HRT was derived by Faulkner, Lewkowycz and Maldacena. This formula is generalized to include perturbative quantum corrections in the bulk at any (finite) order. Hurdles to spacetime emergence from entanglement entropy as described by HRT and its quantum

  8. Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L

    2015-12-01

    A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

  9. Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

    2015-12-01

    A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

  10. Neuroleptic malignant syndrome: mechanisms, interactions, and causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillman, P Ken

    2010-09-15

    This review focuses on new data from recent publications concerning how compounding interactions between different thermoregulatory pathways influence the development of hyperthermia and/or neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS), and the fundamental issue of the presumed causal role of antipsychotic drugs. The formal criteria for substantiating cause-effect relationships in medical science, established by Hill, are applied to NMS and, for comparison, also to malignant hyperthermia and serotonin toxicity. The risk of morbidities related to hyperthermia is reviewed from human and experimental data: temperatures in excess of 39.5°C cause physiological and cellular dysfunction and high mortality. The most temperature-sensitive elements of neural cells are mitochondrial and plasma membranes, in which irreversible changes occur around 40°C. Temperatures of up to 39°C are "normal" in mammals, so, the term hyperthermia should be reserved for temperatures of 39.5°C or greater. The implicitly accepted presumption that NMS is a hypermetabolic and hyperthermic syndrome is questionable and does not explain the extensive morbidity in the majority of cases, where the temperature is less than 39°C. The thermoregulatory effects of dopamine and acetylcholine are outlined, especially because they are probably the main pathways by which neuroleptic drugs might affect thermoregulation. It is notable that even potent antagonism of these mechanisms rarely causes temperature elevation and that multiple mechanisms, including the acute phase response, stress-induced hyperthermia, drugs effects, etc., involving compounding interactions, are required to precipitate hyperthermia. The application of the Hill criteria clearly supports causality for drugs inducing both MH and ST but do not support causality for NMS.

  11. Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andres; Hall, Jim W.; French, Jon; Sutherland, James; van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2016-03-01

    As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion-accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a

  12. Bianchi-I cosmology from causal thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bittencourt, Eduardo; Klippert, Renato

    2016-01-01

    We investigate diagonal Bianchi-I spacetimes in the presence of viscous fluids by using the shear and the anisotropic pressure components as the basic variables, where the viscosity is driven by the (second-order) causal thermodynamics. A few exact solutions are presented, among which we mention the anisotropic versions of de Sitter/anti-de Sitter geometries as well as an asymptotically isotropic spacetime presenting an effective constant cosmic acceleration without any cosmological constant. The qualitative analysis of the solutions for barotropic fluids with linear equations of state suggests that the behaviour is quite general.

  13. On asymmetric causal relationships in Petropolitics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balan Feyza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropolitics denominated by Friedman in 2006 is valid for OPEC countries. To do this, this paper analyses the relationship between political risk and oil supply by applying the asymmetric panel causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2011 to these countries for the period 1984-2014. The results show that the First Law of Petropolitics is valid for Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, given that positive oil supply shocks significantly lead to negative political stability shocks, and negative oil supply shocks significantly lead to positive shocks in political stability.

  14. Qualitative analysis of causal cosmological models

    CERN Document Server

    Triginer, J

    1996-01-01

    The Einstein's field equations of Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes filled with a dissipative fluid described by both the {\\em truncated} and {\\em non-truncated} causal transport equations are analyzed using techniques from dynamical systems theory. The equations of state, as well as the phase space, are different from those used in the recent literature. In the de Sitter expansion both the hydrodynamic approximation and the non-thermalizing condition can be fulfilled simultaneously. For \\Lambda=0 these expansions turn out to be stable provided a certain parameter of the fluid is lower than 1/2. The more general case \\Lambda>0 is studied in detail as well.

  15. Relativistic causality and position space renormalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorov, Ivan

    2016-11-01

    The paper gives a historical survey of the causal position space renormalization with a special attention to the role of Raymond Stora in the development of this subject. Renormalization is reduced to subtracting the pole term in analytically regularized primitively divergent Feynman amplitudes. The identification of residues with "quantum periods" and their relation to recent developments in number theory are emphasized. We demonstrate the possibility of integration over internal vertices (that requires control over the infrared behavior) in the case of the massless φ4 theory and display the dilation and the conformal anomaly.

  16. On causality, unitarity and perturbative expansions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danilkin, Igor; Gasparyan, Ashot; Lutz, Matthias [GSI, Planck Str. 1, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    We present a pedagogical case study how to combine micro-causality and unitarity based on a perturbative approach. The method we advocate constructs an analytic extrapolation of partial-wave scattering amplitudes that is constrained by the unitarity condition. Suitably constructed conformal mappings help to arrive at a systematic approximation of the scattering amplitude. The technique is illustrated at hand of a Yukawa interaction. The typical case of a superposition of strong short-range and weak long-range forces is investigated.

  17. Rapidity Correlation Structures from Causal Hydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Gavin, Sean; Zin, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Viscous diffusion can broaden the rapidity dependence of two-particle transverse momentum fluctuations. Surprisingly, measurements at RHIC by the STAR collaboration demonstrate that this broadening is accompanied by the appearance of unanticipated structure in the rapidity distribution of these fluctuations in the most central collisions. Although a first order classical Navier-Stokes theory can roughly explain the rapidity broadening, it cannot explain the additional structure. We propose that the rapidity structure can be explained using the second order causal Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics with stochastic noise.

  18. On causality, unitarity and perturbative expansions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danilkin, I.V.; Gasparyan, A.M. [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Planck Str. 1, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics, 117259, B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow (Russian Federation); Lutz, M.F.M., E-mail: m.lutz@gsi.d [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Planck Str. 1, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany)

    2011-02-28

    We present a pedagogical case study how to combine micro-causality and unitarity based on a perturbative approach. The method we advocate constructs an analytic extrapolation of partial-wave scattering amplitudes that is constrained by the unitarity condition. Suitably constructed conformal mappings help to arrive at a systematic approximation of the scattering amplitude in a quantum-field theoretical context. The technique is illustrated at hand of a Yukawa interaction. The typical case of a superposition of strong short-range and weak long-range forces is investigated.

  19. Gauge invariance, causality and gluonic poles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anikin, I.V., E-mail: anikin@theor.jinr.r [Bogoliubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation); Teryaev, O.V., E-mail: teryaev@theor.jinr.r [Bogoliubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, JINR, 141980 Dubna (Russian Federation)

    2010-07-05

    We explore the electromagnetic gauge invariance of the hadron tensor of the Drell-Yan process with one transversely polarized hadron. The special role is played by the contour gauge for gluon fields. The prescription for the gluonic pole in the twist 3 correlator is related to causality property and compared with the prescriptions for exclusive hard processes. As a result we get the extra contributions, which naively do not have an imaginary phase. The single spin asymmetry for the Drell-Yan process is accordingly enhanced by the factor of two.

  20. God Does Not Play Dice: Causal Determinism and Preschoolers' Causal Inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Laura E.; Sommerville, Jessica

    2006-01-01

    Three studies investigated children's belief in causal determinism. If children are determinists, they should infer unobserved causes whenever observed causes appear to act stochastically. In Experiment 1, 4-year-olds saw a stochastic generative cause and inferred the existence of an unobserved inhibitory cause. Children traded off inferences…

  1. Immunity in arterial hypertension: associations or causalities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, Hans-Joachim; Baumann, Marcus; Tripepi, Giovanni; Mallamaci, Francesca

    2015-12-01

    Numerous studies describe associations between markers of inflammation and arterial hypertension (aHT), but does that imply causality? Interventional studies that reduce blood pressure reduced also markers of inflammation, but does immunosuppression improve hypertension? Here, we review the available mechanistic data. Aberrant immunity can trigger endothelial dysfunction but is hardly ever the primary cause of aHT. Innate and adaptive immunity get involved once hypertension has caused vascular wall injury as immunity is a modifier of endothelial dysfunction and vascular wall remodelling. As vascular remodelling progresses, immunity-related mechanisms can become significant cofactors for cardiovascular (CV) disease progression; vice versa, suppressing immunity can improve hypertension and CV outcomes. Innate and adaptive immunity both contribute to vascular wall remodelling. Innate immunity is driven by danger signals that activate Toll-like receptors and other pattern-recognition receptors. Adaptive immunity is based on loss of tolerance against vascular autoantigens and includes autoreactive T-cell immunity as well as non-HLA angiotensin II type 1 receptor-activating autoantibodies. Such processes involve numerous other modulators such as regulatory T cells. Together, immunity is not causal for hypertension but rather an important secondary pathomechanism and a potential therapeutic target in hypertension.

  2. Causality and stability of cosmic jets

    CERN Document Server

    Porth, O

    2014-01-01

    In stark contrast to their laboratory and terrestrial counterparts, the cosmic jets appear to be very stable. The are able to penetrate vast spaces, which exceed by up to a billion times the size of their central engines. We propose that the reason behind this remarkable property is the loss of causal connectivity across these jets, caused by their rapid expansion in response to fast decline of external pressure with the distance from the "jet engine". In atmospheres with power-law pressure distribution, the total loss of causal connectivity occurs, when the power index k>2 - the steepness which is expected to be quite common for many astrophysical environments. This conclusion does not seem to depend on the physical nature of jets - it applies both to relativistic and non-relativistic flows, both magnetically-dominated and unmagnetized jets. In order to verify it, we have carried out numerical simulations of moderately magnetized and moderately relativistic jets. Their results give strong support to our hypo...

  3. Emergent Horizons and Causal Structures in Holography

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Avik; Kundu, Sandipan

    2016-01-01

    The open string metric arises kinematically in studying fluctuations of open string degrees of freedom on a D-brane. An observer, living on a probe D-brane, can send signals through the spacetime by using such fluctuations on the probe, that propagate in accordance with a metric which is conformal to the open string metric. Event horizons can emerge in the open string metric when one considers a D-brane with an electric field on its worldvolume. Here, we emphasize the role of and investigate, in details, the causal structure of the resulting open string event horizon and demonstrate, among other things, its close similarities to an usual black hole event horizon in asymptotically AdS-spaces. To that end, we analyze relevant geodesics, Penrose diagrams and various causal holographic observables for a given open string metric. For analytical control, most of our calculations are performed in an asymptotically AdS$_3$-background, however, we argue that the physics is qualitatively the same in higher dimensions. ...

  4. Legendrian links, causality, and the Low conjecture

    CERN Document Server

    Chernov, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    Let $(X^{m+1}, g)$ be a globally hyperbolic spacetime with Cauchy surface diffeomorphic to an open subset of $\\mathbb R^m$. The Legendrian Low conjecture formulated by Nat\\'ario and Tod says that two events $x,y\\in X$ are causally related if and only if the Legendrian link of spheres $\\mathfrak S_x, \\mathfrak S_y$ whose points are light geodesics passing through $x$ and $y$ is non-trivial in the contact manifold of all light geodesics in $X$. The Low conjecture says that for $m=2$ the events $x,y$ are causally related if and only if $\\mathfrak S_x, \\mathfrak S_y$ is non-trivial as a topological link. We prove the Low and the Legendrian Low conjectures. We also show that similar statements hold for any globally hyperbolic $(X, g)$ such that the universal cover of its Cauchy surface is diffeomorphic to an open domain of $\\mathbb R^m.$

  5. Non-parametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    CERN Document Server

    McCracken, James M

    2015-01-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  6. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Adolf Stips; Diego Macias; Clare Coughlan; Elisa Garcia-Gorriz; X. San Liang

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aeroso...

  7. Missing Data as a Causal and Probabilistic Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    graphs and missingness models to formally define missing data as a type of causal inference problem where only interventions on certain variables are...approach of [7] of representing missing data problems to causal models where only interventions on missingness indicators are allowed. We further use this... Missing Data as a Causal and Probabilistic Problem Ilya Shpitser Mathematical Sciences University of Southampton Southampton, UK SO14 6WD i.shpitser

  8. Botrytis cinerea: Causal agent of small fruit grey mould

    OpenAIRE

    Tanović, Brankica

    2012-01-01

    Small fruits growing in Serbia is an important and profitable business. However, disease causal agents, pests and weeds often threaten production profitability. A common problem in production of most important small fruit species is a polyfagous, phytopathogenic fungal species Botrytis cinerea, the causal agent of grey mould disease of fruits. Present knowledge on the causal agent, its morphological, ecological and epidemiological characteristics are systematized in the paper. Infection proce...

  9. "Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality"

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    The paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit and sovereign debt over the last three decades and its connection to the political and economic environment of the same period. We pay special attention to the causality between the public and the foreign deficit. We argue that from 1980 to 1995 causality ran from the public deficit to the foreign deficit, but that due to the European monetary unification process and the adoption of the common currency, causality has reversed si...

  10. The Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Elyasi, Yousef; Rahimi, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationship between government revenue and government expenditure is an important subject in public economics especially to the control of budget deficit. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in Iran by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the causality test show that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between government expenditure and revenues in both long run...

  11. Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent for Gaussian variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B; Seth, Anil K

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  12. Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent for Gaussian variables

    CERN Document Server

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil

    2009-01-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. It has always seemed plausible that the two concepts ought to be related. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  13. Linkage intensity learning approach with genetic algorithm for causality diagram

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Cheng-liang; CHEN Juan-juan

    2007-01-01

    The causality diagram theory, which adopts graphical expression of knowledge and direct intensity of causality, overcomes some shortages in belief network and has evolved into a mixed causality diagram methodology for discrete and continuous variable. But to give linkage intensity of causality diagram is difficult, particularly in many working conditions in which sampling data are limited or noisy. The classic learning algorithm is hard to be adopted. We used genetic algorithm to learn linkage intensity from limited data. The simulation results demonstrate that this algorithm is more suitable than the classic algorithm in the condition of sample shortage such as space shuttle's fault diagnoisis.

  14. Noether-Like Theorems for Causal Variational Principles

    CERN Document Server

    Finster, Felix

    2015-01-01

    The connection between symmetries and conservation laws as made by Noether's theorem is extended to the context of causal variational principles and causal fermion systems. Different notions of continuous symmetries are introduced. It is proven that these symmetries give rise to corresponding conserved quantities, expressed in terms of so-called surface layer integrals. In a suitable limiting case, the Noether-like theorems for causal fermion systems reproduce charge conservation and the conservation of energy and momentum in Minkowski space. Thus the conservation of charge and energy-momentum are found to be special cases of general conservation laws which are intrinsic to causal fermion systems.

  15. Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Alternative Approaches to Causality Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehdanz, Katrin (Christian-Albrechts Univ., Kiel (Germany)); Maddison, David J. (Univ. of Birmingham, Dept. of Economics, Birmingham (United Kingdom))

    2008-07-01

    Numerous papers have examined data on energy and GDP for evidence of Granger causality. More recently this technique has been extended to looking at the relationship between carbon emissions and GDP per capita. These analyses frequently reach differing conclusions concerning the existence and direction of Granger causality. This paper compares the standard fixed-dynamic-effects approach to a heterogenous panel approach testing for evidence of a causal relationship between GDP per capita and carbon emissions per capita allowing for heterogeneity. Overall there is strong evidence for the existence of a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP per capita and CO{sub 2} emissions per capita

  16. Quantum Causality, Stochastics, Trajectories and Information

    CERN Document Server

    Belavkin, V P

    2002-01-01

    A history of the discovery of quantum mechanics and paradoxes of its interpretation is reconsidered from the modern point of view of quantum stochastics and information. It is argued that in the orthodox quantum mechanics there is no place for quantum phenomenology such as events. The development of quantum measurement theory, initiated by von Neumann, and Bell's conceptual critics of hidden variable theories indicated a possibility for resolution of this crisis. This can be done by divorcing the algebra of the dynamical generators and an extended algebra of the potential (quantum) and the actual (classical) observables. The latter, called beables, form the center of the algebra of all observables, as the only visible (macroscopic) observables must be compatible with any hidden (microscopic) observable. It is shown that within this approach quantum causality can be rehabilitated within an extended quantum mechanics (eventum mechanics) in the form of a superselection rule for compatibility of the consistent hi...

  17. Causal structure and electrodynamics on Finsler spacetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeifer, Christian; Wohlfarth, Mattias N. R.

    2011-08-01

    We present a concise new definition of Finsler spacetimes that generalizes Lorentzian metric manifolds and provides consistent backgrounds for physics. Extending standard mathematical constructions known from Finsler spaces, we show that geometric objects like the Cartan nonlinear connection and its curvature are well defined almost everywhere on Finsler spacetimes, including their null structure. This allows us to describe the complete causal structure in terms of timelike and null curves; these are essential to model physical observers and the propagation of light. We prove that the timelike directions form an open convex cone with a null boundary, as is the case in Lorentzian geometry. Moreover, we develop action integrals for physical field theories on Finsler spacetimes, and tools to deduce the corresponding equations of motion. These are applied to construct a theory of electrodynamics that confirms the claimed propagation of light along Finsler null geodesics.

  18. Causal structure and electrodynamics on Finsler spacetimes

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeifer, Christian

    2011-01-01

    We present a concise new definition of Finsler spacetimes that generalize Lorentzian metric manifolds and provide consistent backgrounds for physics. Extending standard mathematical constructions known from Finsler spaces we show that geometric objects like the Cartan non-linear connection and its curvature are well-defined almost everywhere on Finsler spacetimes, also on their null structure. This allows us to describe the complete causal structure in terms of timelike and null curves; these are essential to model physical observers and the propagation of light. We prove that the timelike directions form an open convex cone with null boundary as is the case in Lorentzian geometry. Moreover, we develop action integrals for physical field theories on Finsler spacetimes, and tools to deduce the corresponding equations of motion. These are applied to construct a theory of electrodynamics that confirms the claimed propagation of light along Finsler null geodesics.

  19. Fabry's disease and psychosis: causality or coincidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gairing, S; Wiest, R; Metzler, S; Theodoridou, A; Hoff, P

    2011-01-01

    A 21-year-old female with Fabry's disease (FD) presented acute psychotic symptoms such as delusions, auditory hallucinations and formal thought disorders. Since the age of 14, she had suffered from various psychiatric symptoms increasing in frequency and intensity. We considered the differential diagnoses of prodromal symptoms of schizophrenia and organic schizophrenia-like disorder. Routine examinations including cognitive testing, electroencephalography and structural magnetic resonance imaging revealed no pathological findings. Additional structural and functional imaging demonstrated a minor CNS involvement of FD, yet without functional limitations. In summary our examination results support the thesis that in the case of our patient a mere coincidence of FD and psychotic symptoms is more likely than a causal connection.

  20. Wiretap Channel with Causal State Information

    CERN Document Server

    Chia, Yeow-Khiang

    2010-01-01

    A lower bound on the secrecy capacity of the wiretap channel with state information available causally at both the encoder and decoder is established. The lower bound is shown to be strictly larger than that for the noncausal case by Liu and Chen. Achievability is proved using block Markov coding, Shannon strategy, and key generation from common state information. The state sequence available at the end of each block is used to generate a key, which is used to enhance the transmission rate of the confidential message in the following block. An upper bound on the secrecy capacity when the state is available noncausally at the encoder and decoder is established and is shown to coincide with the lower bound for several classes of wiretap channels with state.

  1. Equity Theory Ratios as Causal Schemas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexios Arvanitis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Equity theory approaches justice evaluations based on ratios of exchange inputs to exchange outcomes. Situations are evaluated as just if ratios are equal and unjust if unequal. We suggest that equity ratios serve a more fundamental cognitive function than the evaluation of justice. More particularly, we propose that they serve as causal schemas for exchange outcomes, that is, they assist in determining whether certain outcomes are caused by inputs of other people in the context of an exchange process. Equality or inequality of ratios in this sense points to an exchange process. Indeed, Study 1 shows that different exchange situations, such as disproportional or balanced proportional situations, create perceptions of give-and-take on the basis of equity ratios. Study 2 shows that perceptions of justice are based more on communicatively accepted rules of interaction than equity-based evaluations, thereby offering a distinction between an attribution and an evaluation cognitive process for exchange outcomes.

  2. Flux Analysis in Process Models via Causality

    CERN Document Server

    Kahramanoğullari, Ozan

    2010-01-01

    We present an approach for flux analysis in process algebra models of biological systems. We perceive flux as the flow of resources in stochastic simulations. We resort to an established correspondence between event structures, a broadly recognised model of concurrency, and state transitions of process models, seen as Petri nets. We show that we can this way extract the causal resource dependencies in simulations between individual state transitions as partial orders of events. We propose transformations on the partial orders that provide means for further analysis, and introduce a software tool, which implements these ideas. By means of an example of a published model of the Rho GTP-binding proteins, we argue that this approach can provide the substitute for flux analysis techniques on ordinary differential equation models within the stochastic setting of process algebras.

  3. Causality Constraints in Conformal Field Theory

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    Causality places nontrivial constraints on QFT in Lorentzian signature, for example fixing the signs of certain terms in the low energy Lagrangian. In d-dimensional conformal field theory, we show how such constraints are encoded in crossing symmetry of Euclidean correlators, and derive analogous constraints directly from the conformal bootstrap (analytically). The bootstrap setup is a Lorentzian four-point function corresponding to propagation through a shockwave. Crossing symmetry fixes the signs of certain log terms that appear in the conformal block expansion, which constrains the interactions of low-lying operators. As an application, we use the bootstrap to rederive the well known sign constraint on the (∂φ)4 coupling in effective field theory, from a dual CFT. We also find constraints on theories with higher spin conserved currents. Our analysis is restricted to scalar correlators, but we argue that similar methods should also impose nontrivial constraints on the interactions of spinni...

  4. Causality Constraints in Conformal Field Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hartman, Thomas; Kundu, Sandipan

    2015-01-01

    Causality places nontrivial constraints on QFT in Lorentzian signature, for example fixing the signs of certain terms in the low energy Lagrangian. In d-dimensional conformal field theory, we show how such constraints are encoded in crossing symmetry of Euclidean correlators, and derive analogous constraints directly from the conformal bootstrap (analytically). The bootstrap setup is a Lorentzian four-point function corresponding to propagation through a shockwave. Crossing symmetry fixes the signs of certain log terms that appear in the conformal block expansion, which constrains the interactions of low-lying operators. As an application, we use the bootstrap to rederive the well known sign constraint on the $(\\partial\\phi)^4$ coupling in effective field theory, from a dual CFT. We also find constraints on theories with higher spin conserved currents. Our analysis is restricted to scalar correlators, but we argue that similar methods should also impose nontrivial constraints on the interactions of spinning o...

  5. Exploring Torus Universes in Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budd, Timothy George; Loll, R.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the search for new observables in nonperturbative quantum gravity, we consider Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in 2+1 dimensions with the spatial topology of a torus. This system is of particular interest, because one can study not only the global scale factor, but also global...... shape variables in the presence of arbitrary quantum fluctuations of the geometry. Our initial investigation focusses on the dynamics of the scale factor and uncovers a qualitatively new behaviour, which leads us to investigate a novel type of boundary conditions for the path integral. Comparing large......-scale features of the emergent quantum geometry in numerical simulations with a classical minisuperspace formulation, we find partial agreement. By measuring the correlation matrix of volume fluctuations we succeed in reconstructing the effective action for the scale factor directly from the simulation data...

  6. Exploring Torus Universes in Causal Dynamical Triangulations

    CERN Document Server

    Budd, T G

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the search for new observables in nonperturbative quantum gravity, we consider Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) in 2+1 dimensions with the spatial topology of a torus. This system is of particular interest, because one can study not only the global scale factor, but also global shape variables in the presence of arbitrary quantum fluctuations of the geometry. Our initial investigation focusses on the dynamics of the scale factor and uncovers a qualitatively new behaviour, which leads us to investigate a novel type of boundary conditions for the path integral. Comparing large-scale features of the emergent quantum geometry in numerical simulations with a classical minisuperspace formulation, we find partial agreement. By measuring the correlation matrix of volume fluctuations we succeed in reconstructing the effective action for the scale factor directly from the simulation data. Apart from setting the stage for the analysis of shape dynamics on the torus, the new set-up highlights the role o...

  7. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazlioglu, Saban, E-mail: snazlioglu@pau.edu.t [Department of Econometrics, Pamukkale University, Denizli (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: {yields} This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). {yields} The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. {yields} The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. {yields} The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  8. Assessing thalamocortical functional connectivity with Granger causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; Maybhate, Anil; Israel, David; Thakor, Nitish V; Jia, Xiaofeng

    2013-09-01

    Assessment of network connectivity across multiple brain regions is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying various neurological disorders. Conventional methods for assessing dynamic interactions include cross-correlation and coherence analysis. However, these methods do not reveal the direction of information flow, which is important for studying the highly directional neurological system. Granger causality (GC) analysis can characterize the directional influences between two systems. We tested GC analysis for its capability to capture directional interactions within both simulated and in vivo neural networks. The simulated networks consisted of Hindmarsh-Rose neurons; GC analysis was used to estimate the causal influences between two model networks. Our analysis successfully detected asymmetrical interactions between these networks ( , t -test). Next, we characterized the relationship between the "electrical synaptic strength" in the model networks and interactions estimated by GC analysis. We demonstrated the novel application of GC to monitor interactions between thalamic and cortical neurons following ischemia induced brain injury in a rat model of cardiac arrest (CA). We observed that during the post-CA acute period the GC interactions from the thalamus to the cortex were consistently higher than those from the cortex to the thalamus ( 1.983±0.278 times higher, p = 0.021). In addition, the dynamics of GC interactions between the thalamus and the cortex were frequency dependent. Our study demonstrated the feasibility of GC to monitor the dynamics of thalamocortical interactions after a global nervous system injury such as CA-induced ischemia, and offers preferred alternative applications in characterizing other inter-regional interactions in an injured brain.

  9. [Antibibiotic resistance by nosocomial infections' causal agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Holguín, Héctor Daniel; Cisneros-Robledo, María Elena

    2016-01-01

    Introducción: la resistencia a antimicrobianos por agentes causales de infección nosocomial (IN) constituye un grave problemática global que involucra al HGR 1 del IMSS en Chihuahua, México; si bien con particularidades que requirieron especificarla y evaluarla, a fin de concretar una terapéutica eficaz. Métodos: estudio observacional, descriptivo y prospectivo; se llevó a cabo mediante vigilancia activa durante 2014 para la detección de infecciones nosocomiales, su estudio epidemiológico, cultivo y antibiograma para identificar al agente causal y su resistencia a los antibióticos. Resultados: de 13527 egresos hospitalarios, 1079 presentaron IN (8 por 100 egresos) y de ellas destacaron: de líneas vasculares, quirúrgicas, neumonía y de vías urinarias; sumando dos tercios del total. Se realizó cultivo y antibiograma en 300 de ellas (27.8 %); identificando 31 especies bacterianas, siendo siete las principales (77.9 %): Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus y epidermidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, Klebsiella pneumoniae y Enterobacter cloacae; mostrando multirresistencia a 34 antibióticos probados, excepto en siete con baja o nula resistencia: vancomicina, teicoplanina, linezolid, quinupristina-dalfopristina, piperacilina–tazobactam, amikacina y carbapenémicos. Conclusiones: al contrastar tales resultados ante las recomendaciones de las guías de práctica clínica, surgieron contradicciones; por lo que deben tomarse con reserva y ser probadas en cada hospital, mediante cultivos y antibiogramas en prácticamente todos los casos de infección nosocomial.

  10. Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

  11. Time Symmetric Quantum Mechanics and Causal Classical Physics ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bopp, Fritz W.

    2017-02-01

    A two boundary quantum mechanics without time ordered causal structure is advocated as consistent theory. The apparent causal structure of usual "near future" macroscopic phenomena is attributed to a cosmological asymmetry and to rules governing the transition between microscopic to macroscopic observations. Our interest is a heuristic understanding of the resulting macroscopic physics.

  12. Thinking Fast and Slow about Causality: Response to Palinkas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Jeanne C.

    2014-01-01

    Larry Palinkas advances the developing science of social work by providing an explanation of how social science research methods, both qualitative and quantitative, can improve our capacity to draw casual inferences. Understanding causal relations and making causal inferences--with the promise of being able to predict and control outcomes--is…

  13. The relative performance of bivariate causality tests in small samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bult, J..R.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1997-01-01

    Causality tests have been applied to establish directional effects and to reduce the set of potential predictors, For the latter type of application only bivariate tests can be used, In this study we compare bivariate causality tests. Although the problem addressed is general and could benefit resea

  14. Manifest Variable Granger Causality Models for Developmental Research: A Taxonomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Eye, Alexander; Wiedermann, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Granger models are popular when it comes to testing hypotheses that relate series of measures causally to each other. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of Granger causality models. The taxonomy results from crossing the four variables Order of Lag, Type of (Contemporaneous) Effect, Direction of Effect, and Segment of Dependent Series…

  15. Causal Discourse Analyzer: Improving Automated Feedback on Academic ESL Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chukharev-Hudilainen, Evgeny; Saricaoglu, Aysel

    2016-01-01

    Expressing causal relations plays a central role in academic writing. While it is important that writing instructors assess and provide feedback on learners' causal discourse, it could be a very time-consuming task. In this respect, automated writing evaluation (AWE) tools may be helpful. However, to date, there have been no AWE tools capable of…

  16. The causal boundary and its relations with the conformal boundary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, J, E-mail: jherrera@agt.cie.uma.e [Departamento de Algebra, GeometrIa y TopologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Malaga, Campus Teatinos, 29071 Malaga (Spain)

    2010-05-01

    Our aim in this note is to present the results (obtained in [2]) which ensure that, under certain regularity conditions, the conformal boundary becomes equal to the causal boundary, not only as a point set, but in a topological and chronological level. In particular, under these conditions the conformal boundary becomes a powerful tool to compute the causal one.

  17. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  18. The Feasibility of Using Causal Indicators in Educational Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jue; Engelhard, George, Jr.

    2016-01-01

    The authors of the focus article describe an important issue related to the use and interpretation of causal indicators within the context of structural equation modeling (SEM). In the focus article, the authors illustrate with simulated data the effects of omitting a causal indicator. Since SEMs are used extensively in the social and behavioral…

  19. Causality violation in asymptotically flat space-times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipler, F.J.

    1976-10-04

    It is shown that a region containing closed timelike lines cannot evolve from regular initial data in a singularity-free asymptotically flat space-time. Furthermore, the causality assumption made in the black-hole uniqueness proofs is justified: It is demonstrated that no physically realistc nonsingular black hole can have a causality-violating exterior. (AIP)

  20. Child Care Subsidy Use and Child Development: Potential Causal Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkinson, Laura E.

    2011-01-01

    Research using an experimental design is needed to provide firm causal evidence on the impacts of child care subsidy use on child development, and on underlying causal mechanisms since subsidies can affect child development only indirectly via changes they cause in children's early experiences. However, before costly experimental research is…

  1. Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bes, Benedicte; Sloman, Steven; Lucas, Christopher G.; Raufaste, Eric

    2012-01-01

    The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

  2. From Blickets to Synapses: Inferring Temporal Causal Networks by Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Chrisantha

    2013-01-01

    How do human infants learn the causal dependencies between events? Evidence suggests that this remarkable feat can be achieved by observation of only a handful of examples. Many computational models have been produced to explain how infants perform causal inference without explicit teaching about statistics or the scientific method. Here, we…

  3. Time Symmetric Quantum Mechanics and Causal Classical Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Bopp, Fritz W

    2016-01-01

    A two boundary quantum mechanics without time ordered causal structure is advocated as consistent theory. The apparent causal structure of usual "near future" macroscopic phenomena is attributed to a cosmological asymmetry and to rules governing the transition between microscopic to macroscopic observations. Our interest is a heuristic understanding of the resulting macroscopic physics.

  4. Temporal and Statistical Information in Causal Structure Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Teresa; Frosch, Caren; Patrick, Fiona; Lagnado, David

    2015-01-01

    Three experiments examined children's and adults' abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a 3-variable mechanical…

  5. A Probability Index of the Robustness of a Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Wei; Frank, Kenneth A.

    2003-01-01

    Causal inference is an important, controversial topic in the social sciences, where it is difficult to conduct experiments or measure and control for all confounding variables. To address this concern, the present study presents a probability index to assess the robustness of a causal inference to the impact of a confounding variable. The…

  6. Statistical causal inferences and their applications in public health research

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Pan; Chen, Ding-Geng

    2016-01-01

    This book compiles and presents new developments in statistical causal inference. The accompanying data and computer programs are publicly available so readers may replicate the model development and data analysis presented in each chapter. In this way, methodology is taught so that readers may implement it directly. The book brings together experts engaged in causal inference research to present and discuss recent issues in causal inference methodological development. This is also a timely look at causal inference applied to scenarios that range from clinical trials to mediation and public health research more broadly. In an academic setting, this book will serve as a reference and guide to a course in causal inference at the graduate level (Master's or Doctorate). It is particularly relevant for students pursuing degrees in Statistics, Biostatistics and Computational Biology. Researchers and data analysts in public health and biomedical research will also find this book to be an important reference.

  7. Implementing causality in the spin foam quantum geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Livine, E R; Livine, Etera R.; Oriti, Daniele

    2003-01-01

    We analyse the classical and quantum geometry of the Barrett-Crane spin foam model for four dimensional quantum gravity, explaining why it has to be considering as a covariant realization of the projector operator onto physical quantum gravity states. We discuss how causality requirements can be consistently implemented in this framework, and construct causal transiton amplitudes between quantum gravity states, i.e. realising in the spin foam context the Feynman propagator between states. The resulting causal spin foam model can be seen as a path integral quantization of Lorentzian first order Regge calculus, and represents a link between several approaches to quantum gravity as canonical loop quantum gravity, sum-over-histories formulations, dynamical triangulations and causal sets. In particular, we show how the resulting model can be rephrased within the framework of quantum causal sets (or histories).

  8. Bell's theorem and the causal arrow of time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argaman, Nathan

    2010-10-01

    Einstein held that the formalism of quantum mechanics involves "spooky actions at a distance." In the 1960s, Bell amplified this by showing that the predictions of quantum mechanics disagree with the results of any locally causal description. It should be appreciated that accepting nonlocal descriptions while retaining causality leads to a clash with relativity. Furthermore, the causal arrow of time by definition contradicts time-reversal symmetry. For these reasons, Wheeler and Feynman, Costa de Beauregard, Cramer, Price, and others have advocated abandoning microscopic causality. In this paper, a simplistic but concrete example of this line of thought is presented, in the form of a retro-causal toy model that is stochastic and provides an appealing description of the quantum correlations discussed by Bell. It is concluded that Einstein's "spooky actions" may occur "in the past" rather than "at a distance," resolving the tension between quantum mechanics and relativity and opening unexplored possibilities for future reformulations of quantum mechanics.

  9. Toddlers infer higher-order relational principles in causal learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Caren M; Gopnik, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Children make inductive inferences about the causal properties of individual objects from a very young age. When can they infer higher-order relational properties? In three experiments, we examined 18- to 30-month-olds' relational inferences in a causal task. Results suggest that at this age, children are able to infer a higher-order relational causal principle from just a few observations and use this inference to guide their own subsequent actions and bring about a novel causal outcome. Moreover, the children passed a revised version of the relational match-to-sample task that has proven very difficult for nonhuman primates. The findings are considered in light of their implications for understanding the nature of relational and causal reasoning, and their evolutionary origins.

  10. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  11. Mitigating the effects of measurement noise on Granger causality

    CERN Document Server

    Nalatore, Hariharan; Ding, Mingzhou

    2007-01-01

    Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the dynamical organization of the system being investigated. Since experimental measurements are inevitably contaminated by noise, it is thus important to understand the effects of such noise on Granger causality estimation. The first goal of this paper is to provide an analytical and numerical analysis of this problem. Specifically, we show that, due to noise contamination, (1) spurious causality between two measured variables can arise and (2) true causality can be suppressed. The second goal of the paper is to provide a denoising strategy to mitigate this problem. Specifically, we propose a denoising algorithm based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the den...

  12. The role of causal discourse structure in narrative writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Broek, P; Linzie, B; Fletcher, C; Marsolek, C J

    2000-07-01

    All writers produce text content and ideally connect it together according to discourse conventions. We investigate whether a particularly strong discourse convention, the need for causal coherence in narratives, can predict the kind of text writers will produce. Causality has been found to be a significant discourse factor in reading comprehension and hence can be expected to determine also what writers produce during composition. In Experiment 1, writers composed short continuations at various points throughout a simple narrative, whereas in Experiment 2, writers composed continuations to complete several narratives. The results indicate that causality indeed plays a major role in composition. Writers tend to produce new text in such a way that it is causally connected to the prior text. Furthermore, writers favored causal relations of necessity or of necessity and sufficiency while largely avoiding relations of sufficiency alone, which suggests a general discourse constraint to be maximally informative (e.g., Grice, 1975).

  13. Causality in non-commutative quantum field theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haque, Asrarul; Joglekar, Satish D [Department of Physics, I.I.T. Kanpur, Kanpur 208 016 (India)], E-mail: ahaque@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: sdj@iitk.ac.in

    2008-05-30

    We study causality in noncommutative quantum field theory with a space-space noncommutativity. We employ the S operator approach of Bogoliubov-Shirkov (BS). We generalize the BS criterion of causality to the noncommutative theory. The criterion to test causality leads to a nonzero difference between the T* product and the T product as a condition of causality violation for a spacelike separation. We discuss two examples; one in a scalar theory and another in the Yukawa theory. In particular, in the context of a noncommutative Yukawa theory, with the interaction Lagrangian {psi}-bar(x)*{psi}(x)*{phi}(x), is observed to be causality violating even in the case of space-space noncommutativity for which {theta}{sup 0i} = 0.

  14. Quantum objects as elementary units of causality and locality

    CERN Document Server

    Diel, Hans H

    2016-01-01

    The author's attempt to construct a local causal model of quantum theory (QT) that includes quantum field theory (QFT) resulted in the identification of "quantum objects" as the elementary units of causality and locality. Quantum objects are collections of particles (including single particles) whose collective dynamics and measurement results can only be described by the laws of QT and QFT. Local causal models of quantum objects' internal dynamics are not possible if a locality is understood as a space-point locality. Within quantum objects, state transitions may occur which instantly affect the whole quantum object. The identification of quantum objects as the elementary units of causality and locality has two primary implications for a causal model of quantum objects: (1) quantum objects run autonomously with system-state update frequencies based on their local proper times and with either no or minimal dependency on external parameters. (2) The laws of physics that describe global (but relativistic) inter...

  15. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups-what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given.

  16. Causality and subjectivity in discourse : The meaning and use of causal connectives in spontaneous conversation, chat interactions and written text

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, T.J.M.; Spooren, W.P.M.S.

    2015-01-01

    Many languages of the world have connectives to express causal relations at the discourse level. Often, language users systematically prefer one lexical item (because) over another (even highly similar) one (since) to express a causal relationship. Such choices provide a window on speakers' cognitiv

  17. Causality and subjectivity in discourse: The meaning and use of causal connectives in spontaneous conversation, chat interactions and written text

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, T.J.M.; Spooren, W.P.M.S.

    2015-01-01

    Many languages of the world have connectives to express causal relations at the discourse level. Often, language users systematically prefer one lexical item (because) over another (even highly similar) one (since) to express a causal relationship. Such choices provide a window on speakers’ cognitiv

  18. Causation or only correlation? Application of causal inference graphs for evaluating causality in nano-QSAR models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizochenko, Natalia; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Leszczynski, Jerzy; Puzyn, Tomasz

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Methods of causal discovery have been applied for broader physical insight into mechanisms of action and interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models. Previously developed nano-QSAR models for toxicity of 17 nano-sized metal oxides towards E. coli bacteria have been validated by means of the causality criteria. Using the descriptors confirmed by the causal technique, we have developed new models consistent with the straightforward causal-reasoning account. It was proven that causal inference methods are able to provide a more robust mechanistic interpretation of the developed nano-QSAR models.In this paper, we suggest that causal inference methods could be efficiently used in Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) modeling as additional validation criteria within quality evaluation of the model. Verification of the relationships between descriptors and toxicity or other activity in the QSAR model has a vital role in understanding the mechanisms of action. The well-known phrase ``correlation does not imply causation'' reflects insight statistically correlated with the endpoint descriptor may not cause the emergence of this endpoint. Hence, paradigmatic shifts must be undertaken when moving from traditional statistical correlation analysis to causal

  19. Warranting the use of causal claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menno Rol

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available To what use can causal claims established in good studies be put? We give examples of studies from which inaccurate inferences were made about target policy situations. The usual diagnosis is that the studies in question lack external validity, which means that the same results do not hold in the target as in study. That’s a label that just repeats what we already knew. We offer a deeper analysis. Our analysis points to the need for interdisciplinarity and to the demand to focus not on the study – as the expression ‘external validity’ invites you to do – but on the target.The call for interdisciplinary approaches to real life problems is common since it is widely acknowledged that what happens in the real world seldom falls under the auspices of any single research domain. Our focus is on one specific real life problem: how to use causal claims from good studies to help predict whether the policies tested will work in a new situation.  Our analysis of what it takes to back up these predictions points up very specific stages in the process of prediction where we are bound to get it wrong if we do not diversify our concepts, our knowledge and our methods.We isolate two reasons inferences from study to target fail. First, policy variables do not produce results on their own; they need helping factors. The distribution of helping factors is likely to be unique or local for each study, so one cannot expect external validity to be all that common. Second, researchers often give too concrete a description of the cause in the study for it to carry over to the target. Abstraction is necessary to get causes that travel.There is no sure-fire way to guard against these problems. But the unavailability of one perfect tool does not imply there are no second best contrivances. Two general pointers for Good Practice in policy advice follow from our diagnosis: focus on the concrete details in the target and use cross discipline heuristics that

  20. Causal inference in cross-lagged panel analysis: a reciprocal causal relationship between cognitive function and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Ju Young; Brown, Roger L

    2014-01-01

    Cross-lagged panel analysis (CLPA) is a method of examining one-way or reciprocal causal inference between longitudinally changing variables. It has been used in the social sciences for many years, but not much in nursing research. This article introduces the conceptual and statistical background of CLPA and provides an exemplar of CLPA that examines the reciprocal causal relationship between depression and cognitive function over time in older adults. The 2-year cross-lagged effects of depressive symptoms (T1) on cognitive function (T2) and cognitive function (T1) on depressive symptoms (T2) were significant, which demonstrated a reciprocal causal relationship between cognitive function and depressive mood over time. Although CLPA is a methodologically strong approach to examine the reciprocal causal inferences over time, it is necessary to consider potential sources of spuriousness to lead to false causal relationship and a reasonable time frame to detect the change of the variables.

  1. Globally hyperbolic spacetimes can be defined as 'causal' instead of 'strongly causal'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernal, Antonio N; Sanchez, Miguel [Departamento de GeometrIa y TopologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain)

    2007-02-07

    The classical definition of global hyperbolicity for a spacetime (M, g) comprises two conditions: (A) compactness of the diamonds J{sup +}(p) intersection J{sup -}(q), and (B) strong causality. Here we show that condition (B) can be replaced just by causality. In fact, we show first that the requirements on the spacetime in the classical definition of causal simplicity (i.e. to be distinguishing plus the closedness of J{sup +}(p), J{sup -}(q)) can be weakened by requiring only to be causal instead of distinguishing. So, the full consistency of the causal ladder (recently proved by the authors in a definitive way) yields directly the result. (comments, replies and notes)

  2. Applying Causal Discovery to the Output of Climate Models - What Can We Learn from the Causal Signatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert-Uphoff, I.; Hammerling, D.; Samarasinghe, S.; Baker, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    The framework of causal discovery provides algorithms that seek to identify potential cause-effect relationships from observational data. The output of such algorithms is a graph structure that indicates the potential causal connections between the observed variables. Originally developed for applications in the social sciences and economics, causal discovery has been used with great success in bioinformatics and, most recently, in climate science, primarily to identify interaction patterns between compound climate variables and to track pathways of interactions between different locations around the globe. Here we apply causal discovery to the output data of climate models to learn so-called causal signatures from the data that indicate interactions between the different atmospheric variables. These causal signatures can act like fingerprints for the underlying dynamics and thus serve a variety of diagnostic purposes. We study the use of the causal signatures for three applications: 1) For climate model software verification we suggest to use causal signatures as a means of detecting statistical differences between model runs, thus identifying potential errors and supplementing the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Testing (CESM-ECT) tool recently developed at NCAR for CESM verification. 2) In the context of data compression of model runs, we will test how much the causal signatures of the model outputs changes after different compression algorithms have been applied. This may result in additional means to determine which type and amount of compression is acceptable. 3) This is the first study applying causal discovery simultaneously to a large number of different atmospheric variables, and in the process of studying the resulting interaction patterns for the two aforementioned applications, we expect to gain some new insights into their relationships from this approach. We will present first results obtained for Applications 1 and 2 above.

  3. Causal structure and hierarchies of models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Kevin D

    2012-12-01

    Economics prefers complete explanations: general over partial equilibrium, microfoundational over aggregate. Similarly, probabilistic accounts of causation frequently prefer greater detail to less as in typical resolutions of Simpson's paradox. Strategies of causal refinement equally aim to distinguish direct from indirect causes. Yet, there are countervailing practices in economics. Representative-agent models aim to capture economic motivation but not to reduce the level of aggregation. Small structural vector-autoregression and dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium models are practically preferred to larger ones. The distinction between exogenous and endogenous variables suggests partitioning the world into distinct subsystems. The tension in these practices is addressed within a structural account of causation inspired by the work of Herbert Simon's, which defines cause with reference to complete systems adapted to deal with incomplete systems and piecemeal evidence. The focus is on understanding the constraints that a structural account of causation places on the freedom to model complex or lower-order systems as simpler or higher-order systems and on to what degree piecemeal evidence can be incorporated into a structural account.

  4. Causality in noncommutative space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neves, M.J.; Abreu, E.M.C. [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    Full text: Space-time noncommutativity has been investigated in the last years as a real possibility to describe physics at fundamental scale. This subject is associated with many tough issues in physics, i.e., strings, gravity, noncommutative field theories and others. The first formulation for a noncommutative spacetime was proposed by Snyder in 1947, where the object of noncommutativity is considered as a constant matrix that breaks the Lorentz symmetry. His objective was to get rid of the infinities that intoxicate quantum field theory. Unfortunately it was demonstrated not a success. Here we consider an alternative recent formulation known as Doplicher-Fredenhagen-Roberts-Amorim (DFRA) algebra in which the object of noncommutativity is treated as an ordinary coordinate by constructing an extended space-time with 4 + 6 dimensions (x + {phi}) - spacetime. In this way, the Lorentz symmetry is preserved in DFRA algebra. A quantum field theory is constructed in accordance with DFRA Poincare algebra, as well as a Lagrangian density formulation. By means of the Klein-Gordon equation in this (x + {phi}) - spacetime. We analyze the aspects of causality by studying the advanced and retarded Green functions. (author)

  5. On Optimum Causal Cognitive Spectrum Reutilization Strategy

    CERN Document Server

    Haghighi, Kasra; Agrell, Erik

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study opportunistic transmission strategies for cognitive radios (CR) in which causal noisy observation from a primary user(s) (PU) state is available. PU is assumed to be operating in a slotted manner, according to a two-state Markov model. The objective is to maximize utilization ratio (UR), i.e., relative number of the PU-idle slots that are used by CR, subject to interference ratio (IR), i.e., relative number of the PU-active slots that are used by CR, below a certain level. We introduce an a-posteriori LLR-based cognitive transmission strategy and show that this strategy is optimum in the sense of maximizing UR given a certain maximum allowed IR. Two methods for calculating threshold for this strategy in practical situations are presented. One of them performs well in higher SNRs but might have too large IR at low SNRs and low PU activity levels, and the other is proven to never violate the allowed IR at the price of a reduced UR. In addition, an upper-bound for the UR of any CR strategy...

  6. Automaticity: Componential, Causal, and Mechanistic Explanations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moors, Agnes

    2016-01-01

    The review first discusses componential explanations of automaticity, which specify non/automaticity features (e.g., un/controlled, un/conscious, non/efficient, fast/slow) and their interrelations. Reframing these features as factors that influence processes (e.g., goals, attention, and time) broadens the range of factors that can be considered (e.g., adding stimulus intensity and representational quality). The evidence reviewed challenges the view of a perfect coherence among goals, attention, and consciousness, and supports the alternative view that (a) these and other factors influence the quality of representations in an additive way (e.g., little time can be compensated by extra attention or extra stimulus intensity) and that (b) a first threshold of this quality is required for unconscious processing and a second threshold for conscious processing. The review closes with a discussion of causal explanations of automaticity, which specify factors involved in automatization such as repetition and complexity, and a discussion of mechanistic explanations, which specify the low-level processes underlying automatization.

  7. Reconstructing Causal Biological Networks through Active Learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunghoon Cho

    Full Text Available Reverse-engineering of biological networks is a central problem in systems biology. The use of intervention data, such as gene knockouts or knockdowns, is typically used for teasing apart causal relationships among genes. Under time or resource constraints, one needs to carefully choose which intervention experiments to carry out. Previous approaches for selecting most informative interventions have largely been focused on discrete Bayesian networks. However, continuous Bayesian networks are of great practical interest, especially in the study of complex biological systems and their quantitative properties. In this work, we present an efficient, information-theoretic active learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs, which serve as important models for gene regulatory networks. In addition to providing linear-algebraic insights unique to GBNs, leading to significant runtime improvements, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on data simulated with GBNs and the DREAM4 network inference challenge data sets. Our method generally leads to faster recovery of underlying network structure and faster convergence to final distribution of confidence scores over candidate graph structures using the full data, in comparison to random selection of intervention experiments.

  8. Solution to causality paradox upon total reflection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiang-min; CAO Zhuang-qi; ZHU Peng-fei; SHEN Qi-shun

    2006-01-01

    A dispute about the existence of an additional time (named as the Goos-H(a)nchen time) associated with the Goos-H(a)nchen shift in total reflection has recently arisen.At the same time,an inconsistency between the optical ray model and the electromagnetic theory also appears in the optical planar waveguide.By analyzing light propagation in an optical planar waveguide with both the zigzag-ray model and the electromagnetic theory,this paper shows that the Goos-H(a)nchen time really exists,and the total time delay upon total reflection upon an ideal nonabsorbing plasma mirror is the sum of the group-delay time and the Goos-H(a)nchen time.The causality paradox of total reflection of a TM wave upon an ideal nonabsorbing plasma mirror is also solved taking into consideration the negative Goos-H(a)nchen shift.Finally,the expression of the group velocity of the guided mode in optical planar waveguide was obtained,which clearly shows that the time delay upon total reflection is the sum of the group-delay time and the Goos-H(a)nchen time at given any time.

  9. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik Hoxha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

  10. Spacetime Causal Structure and Dimension from Horismotic Relation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. C. Stoica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reflexive relation on a set can be a starting point in defining the causal structure of a spacetime in General Relativity and other relativistic theories of gravity. If we identify this relation as the relation between lightlike separated events (the horismos relation, we can construct in a natural way the entire causal structure: causal and chronological relations, causal curves, and a topology. By imposing a simple additional condition, the structure gains a definite number of dimensions. This construction works with both continuous and discrete spacetimes. The dimensionality is obtained also in the discrete case, so this approach can be suited to prove the fundamental conjecture of causal sets. Other simple conditions lead to a differentiable manifold with a conformal structure (the metric up to a scaling factor as in Lorentzian manifolds. This structure provides a simple and general reconstruction of the spacetime in relativistic theories of gravity, which normally requires topological structure, differential structure, and geometric structure (which decomposes in the conformal structure, giving the causal relations and the volume element. Motivations for such a reconstruction come from relativistic theories of gravity, where the conformal structure is important, from the problem of singularities, and from Quantum Gravity, where various discretization methods are pursued, particularly in the causal sets approach.

  11. Kernel canonical-correlation Granger causality for multiple time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guorong; Duan, Xujun; Liao, Wei; Gao, Qing; Chen, Huafu

    2011-04-01

    Canonical-correlation analysis as a multivariate statistical technique has been applied to multivariate Granger causality analysis to infer information flow in complex systems. It shows unique appeal and great superiority over the traditional vector autoregressive method, due to the simplified procedure that detects causal interaction between multiple time series, and the avoidance of potential model estimation problems. However, it is limited to the linear case. Here, we extend the framework of canonical correlation to include the estimation of multivariate nonlinear Granger causality for drawing inference about directed interaction. Its feasibility and effectiveness are verified on simulated data.

  12. An algebraic formulation of causality for noncommutative geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Nicolas; Eckstein, Michał

    2013-07-01

    We propose an algebraic formulation of the notion of causality for spectral triples corresponding to globally hyperbolic manifolds with a well-defined noncommutative generalization. The causality is given by a specific cone of Hermitian elements respecting an algebraic condition based on the Dirac operator and a fundamental symmetry. We prove that in the commutative case the usual notion of causality is recovered. We show that, when the dimension of the manifold is even, the result can be extended in order to have an algebraic constraint suitable for a Lorentzian distance formula.

  13. Trygve Haavelmo and the Emergence of Causal Calculus

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Econometric Theory, 2014, Page 1 of 28. doi:10.1017/S0266466614000231 TRYGVE HAAVELMO AND THE EMERGENCE OF CAUSAL CALCULUS JUDEA PEARL University of...Emergence of Causal Calculus 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK...definition of a (Pearl, 1994): a = ∂ ∂x E(Y |do(x)) (3) HAAVELMO AND CAUSAL CALCULUS 3 which refers to a controlled experiment in which an agent (e.g

  14. The Importance of Discovery in Children's Causal Learning from Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, David M; Sommerville, Jessica A

    2010-01-01

    Four-year-olds were more accurate at learning causal structures from their own actions when they were allowed to act first and then observe an experimenter act, as opposed to observing first and then acting on the environment. Children who discovered the causal efficacy of events (as opposed to confirming the efficacy of events that they observed another discover) were also more accurate than children who only observed the experimenter act on the environment; accuracy in the confirmation and observation conditions was at similar levels. These data suggest that while children learn from acting on the environment, not all self-generated action produces equivalent causal learning.

  15. Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

  16. Causality in thermoelectric systems: Insights from block diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apertet, Y.

    2016-12-01

    While Carnot's model engines demonstrate ideal performances regarding conversion efficiency, they cannot be actually used as energy converters since they are non-causal systems. Such an unphysical behavior indeed restrains the working conditions to a single point where, in the case of a refrigerator (generator), the cooling power (output power) vanishes. Focusing on the example of a thermoelectric refrigerator, we study the impact of different dissipation sources on the causality of such systems. Basing our analysis on the block diagram description of this system, we discuss particularly the fact that heat conduction cannot ensure causality.

  17. Evaluation of NPK 8-30-20 with gypsum addition compared to fertilization employed in the region for the production of potato (Solanumtuberosum L. Evaluación de NPK 8-30-20 con yeso en comparación a la fertilización convencional para la producción de la papa (Solanum tuberosum L. Avaliação da fórmula NPK 8-30-20 com adição de gesso agrícola em comparação à adubação convencional para produção de batata (Solanum tuberosum L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Jobim Vieira

    2010-04-01

    best results of yield of potato tubers and better classification. The application of gypsum was important to reduce the incidence of common scab independent of the formulation and application of NPK without addition of gypsum predisposes the crop to a higher incidence of scabies.

    Diferentes formas de manejo da adubação são empregadas pelos bataticultores, sendo que, de tempos em tempos, surge uma fórmula para adubar a cultura. Porém, deve-se dar especial atenção à adubação e nutrição da cultura da batata, pois a demanda relativa de fertilizantes por unidade de área na cultura é elevada. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a utilização da fórmula NPK 8-30-20 com adição de gesso agrícola comparado a adubação NPK 4-14-8 (tratamento padrão regional na produção da cultura da Batata. O trabalho foi desenvolvido na Unidade de Pesquisa em Produção de Batata e Microclima para a Agricultura, no Campus CEDETEG da Universidade Estadual do Centro Oeste – UNICENTRO em Guarapuava – PR. Os tratamentos aplicados foram: T1 - 3,5 t ha-1 de NPK 4-14-8; T2 - 3,5 t ha-1 de NPK 4-14-8 mais a aplicação de 3 t ha-1 de gesso; T3 - 1,75 t ha-1 de NPK 8-30-20; T4 - 1,75 t ha-1 de NPK 8-30-20 mais a aplicação de 3 t ha-1 de gesso; T5 - 1,75 t ha-1 de NPK 8-30-20 mais a aplicação de gesso para suprir a diferença entre os fertilizantes. O plantio da cultura da batata foi realizado no dia 23 de dezembro de 2008 e a cultivar utilizada foi a Ágata. A semente utilizada foi de Geração 01 e tubérculos de classe II. A densidade de plantio utilizada foi de 50.000 tubérculos por hectare. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi inteiramente casualizado com cinco tratamentos e quatro repetições. Avaliou-se a produtividade e a classificação dos tubérculos de acordo com o tamanho e incidência e severidade da Sarna Comum (Streptomyces spp. e Sarna

  18. Energy consumption and economic growth. A causality analysis for Greece

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsani, Stela Z. [The University of Reading, Department of Economics, Henley Business School, PO Box 218, Reading, RG6 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2010-05-15

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for Greece for the period 1960-2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). At aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real GDP but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction. The importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in Greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements. (author)

  19. Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsani, Stela Z., E-mail: s.cani@reading.ac.u [University of Reading, Department of Economics, Henley Business School, PO Box 218, Reading, RG6 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2010-05-15

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for Greece for the period 1960-2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). At aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real GDP but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction. The importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in Greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements.

  20. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-02-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes.

  1. Management’s causal reasoning on performance and earnings management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, W.A.A.; Zhang, S.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the association between the intensity of causal reasoning on performance in a firm’s annual management commentary and its earnings management propensity. Anticipated earnings management concerns are argued to constitute a significant accountability predicament, bringing management to

  2. Holographic entanglement and causal information in coherent states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gentle, Simon A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Rangamani, Mukund [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2014-01-22

    Scalar solitons in global AdS{sub 4} are holographically dual to coherent states carrying a non-trivial condensate of a scalar operator. We study the holographic information content of these states, focusing on a particular spatial region, by examining the entanglement entropy and causal holographic information. We show generically that whenever the dimension of the condensed operator is sufficiently low (characterized by the double-trace operator becoming relevant), such coherent states have lower entanglement and causal holographic information than the vacuum state of the system, despite having greater energy. We also use these geometries to illustrate the fact that causal wedges associated with a simply-connected boundary region can have non-trivial topology even in causally trivial spacetimes.

  3. Replicating the benefits of closed timelike curves without breaking causality

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xiao; Thompson, Jayne; Haw, Jing Yan; Vedral, Vlatko; Ralph, Timothy C; Lam, Ping Koy; Weedbrook, Christian; Gu, Mile

    2014-01-01

    In general relativity, closed timelike curves can break causality with remarkable and unsettling consequences. At the classical level, they induce causal paradoxes disturbing enough to motivate conjectures that explicitly prevent their existence. At the quantum level, resolving such paradoxes induce radical benefits - from cloning unknown quantum states to solving problems intractable to quantum computers. Instinctively, one expects these benefits to vanish if causality is respected. Here we show that in harnessing entanglement, we can efficiently solve NP-complete problems and clone arbitrary quantum states - even when all time-travelling systems are completely isolated from the past. Thus, the many defining benefits of closed timelike curves can still be harnessed, even when causality is preserved. Our results unveil the subtle interplay between entanglement and general relativity, and significantly improve the potential of probing the radical effects that may exist at the interface between relativity and q...

  4. Cosmic Acceleration from Causal Backreaction with Recursive Nonlinearities

    CERN Document Server

    Bochner, Brett

    2013-01-01

    We revisit the causal backreaction paradigm, in which the need for Dark Energy is eliminated via the generation of an apparent cosmic acceleration from the causal flow of inhomogeneity information coming in towards each observer from distant structure-forming regions. This second-generation formalism incorporates "recursive nonlinearities": the process by which already-established metric perturbations will then act to slow down all future flows of inhomogeneity information. Here, the long-range effects of causal backreaction are now damped, weakening its impact for models that were previously best-fit cosmologies. Nevertheless, we find that causal backreaction can be recovered as a replacement for Dark Energy via the adoption of larger values for the dimensionless `strength' of the clustering evolution functions being modeled -- a change justified by the hierarchical nature of clustering and virialization in the universe, occurring on multiple cosmic length scales simultaneously. With this, and with one new m...

  5. Causal association rule mining methods based on fuzzy state description

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liang Kaijian; Liang Quan; Yang Bingru

    2006-01-01

    Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description framework, the generalized cell Automation that can synthetically process fuzzy indeterminacy and random indeterminacy and generalized inductive logic causal model is brought forward. On this basis, a kind of the new method that can discover causal association rules is provded. According to the causal information of standard sample space and commonly sample space,through constructing its state (abnormality) relation matrix, causal association rules can be gained by using inductive reasoning mechanism. The estimate of this algorithm complexity is given,and its validity is proved through case.

  6. Analyzing multiple spike trains with nonparametric Granger causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedungadi, Aatira G; Rangarajan, Govindan; Jain, Neeraj; Ding, Mingzhou

    2009-08-01

    Simultaneous recordings of spike trains from multiple single neurons are becoming commonplace. Understanding the interaction patterns among these spike trains remains a key research area. A question of interest is the evaluation of information flow between neurons through the analysis of whether one spike train exerts causal influence on another. For continuous-valued time series data, Granger causality has proven an effective method for this purpose. However, the basis for Granger causality estimation is autoregressive data modeling, which is not directly applicable to spike trains. Various filtering options distort the properties of spike trains as point processes. Here we propose a new nonparametric approach to estimate Granger causality directly from the Fourier transforms of spike train data. We validate the method on synthetic spike trains generated by model networks of neurons with known connectivity patterns and then apply it to neurons simultaneously recorded from the thalamus and the primary somatosensory cortex of a squirrel monkey undergoing tactile stimulation.

  7. Learning Why Things Change: The Difference-Based Causality Learner

    CERN Document Server

    Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present the Difference- Based Causality Learner (DBCL), an algorithm for learning a class of discrete-time dynamic models that represents all causation across time by means of difference equations driving change in a system. We motivate this representation with real-world mechanical systems and prove DBCL's correctness for learning structure from time series data, an endeavour that is complicated by the existence of latent derivatives that have to be detected. We also prove that, under common assumptions for causal discovery, DBCL will identify the presence or absence of feedback loops, making the model more useful for predicting the effects of manipulating variables when the system is in equilibrium. We argue analytically and show empirically the advantages of DBCL over vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality models as well as modified forms of Bayesian and constraintbased structure discovery algorithms. Finally, we show that our algorithm can discover causal directions of alpha r...

  8. On the Causality between Multiple Locally Stationary Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junichi Hirukawa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available When one would like to describe the relations between multivariate time series, the concepts of dependence and causality are of importance. These concepts also appear to be useful when one is describing the properties of an engineering or econometric model. Although the measures of dependence and causality under stationary assumption are well established, empirical studies show that these measures are not constant in time. Recently one of the most important classes of nonstationary processes has been formulated in a rigorous asymptotic framework by Dahlhaus in (1996, (1997, and (2000, called locally stationary processes. Locally stationary processes have time-varying spectral densities whose spectral structures smoothly change in time. Here, we generalize measures of linear dependence and causality to multiple locally stationary processes. We give the measures of linear dependence, linear causality from one series to the other, and instantaneous linear feedback, at time t and frequency λ.

  9. On Storks and Babies: Correlation, Causality and Field Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lambrecht Anja

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The explosion of available data has created much excitement among marketing practitioners about their ability to better understand the impact of marketing investments. Big data allows for detecting patterns and often it seems plausible to interpret them as causal. While it is quite obvious that storks do not bring babies, marketing relationships are usually less clear. Apparent “causalities” often fail to hold up under examination. If marketers want to be sure not to walk into a causality trap, they need to conduct field experiments to detect true causal relationships. In the present digital environment, experiments are easier than ever to execute. However, they need to be prepared and interpreted with great care in order to deliver meaningful and genuinely causal results that help improve marketing decisions.

  10. The Central Dogma as a thesis of causal specificity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Marcel

    2006-01-01

    I present a reconstruction of F.H.C. Crick's two 1957 hypotheses 'Sequence Hypothesis' and 'Central Dogma' in terms of a contemporary philosophical theory of causation. Analyzing in particular the experimental evidence that Crick cited, I argue that these hypotheses can be understood as claims about the actual difference-making cause in protein synthesis. As these hypotheses are only true if restricted to certain nucleic acids in certain organisms, I then examine the concept of causal specificity and its potential to counter claims about causal parity of DNA and other cellular components. I first show that causal specificity is a special kind of invariance under interventions, namely invariance of generalizations that range over finite sets of discrete variables. Then, I show that this notion allows the articulation of a middle ground in the debate over causal parity.

  11. Methods for causal inference from gene perturbation experiments and validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hauser, Alain; Mooij, Joris M

    2016-01-01

    Inferring causal effects from observational and interventional data is a highly desirable but ambitious goal. Many of the computational and statistical methods are plagued by fundamental identifiability issues, instability, and unreliable performance, especially for large-scale systems with many...

  12. A note on causality constraining higher curvature corrections to gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruzinov, A; Kleban, M [Department of Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2007-07-07

    We show that causality constrains the sign of quartic Riemann corrections to the Einstein-Hilbert action. Our constraint constitutes a restriction on candidate theories of quantum gravity. (comments, replies and notes)

  13. Causal Set theory, non-locality and phenomenology

    CERN Document Server

    Belenchia, Alessio

    2015-01-01

    This proceeding is based on a talk prepared for the XIV Marcel Grossmann meeting. We review some results on causal set inspired non-local theories as well as work in progress concerning their phenomenology.

  14. Positive affect increases secondary control among causally uncertain individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Stephanie J; George, Melanie P

    2015-01-01

    Secondary control (acceptance of and adjustment to negative events) is thought to promote positive affect. We examined the opposite path: could positive affect increase secondary control, particularly among individuals high in causal uncertainty, who stand to benefit from it the most? In two studies, participants completed a causal uncertainty scale, thought about a problem while listening to affect-inducing music or no music, and then completed items that assessed secondary control. In Study 1, the music induced positive or negative affect. In Study 2, the music induced affect that was high or low in activation and positive or negative in valence. In both studies, we found that positive affect-inducing music increased secondary control among high causal uncertainty participants. Furthermore, trait affect did not account for the effects of causal uncertainty, and music did not influence primary control. These findings show that secondary control can fluctuate as a function of state affect.

  15. Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulecky, Donald C

    2007-10-01

    Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

  16. An Experimental Research on Causal Illusion (in Chinese)

    OpenAIRE

    Shao, Z. F.; Zhao, J.

    2004-01-01

    The research examined humans’ causal attribution of response-outcome under controllable and uncontrollable conditions respectively and attempted to find out whether providing appropriate external cues could be beneficial to them in making accurate judgments. The results indicate: 1) under controllable conditions, the delay of feedback might lead to causal illusion; 2) under uncontrollable conditions, the subjects developed superstition and illusion of control rather than helplessness; 3) prov...

  17. Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation and Hume's Conception of Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Slavov, Matias

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the relationship between Hume’s causal philosophy and Newton’s philosophy of nature. I claim that Newton’s experimentalist methodology in gravity research is an important background for understanding Hume’s conception of causality: Hume sees the relation of cause and effect as not being founded on a priori reasoning, similar to the way that Newton criticized non-empirical hypotheses about the properties of gravity. However, according to Hume’s criteria of...

  18. Causality in noncommutative two-sheeted space-times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Nicolas; Eckstein, Michał

    2015-10-01

    We investigate the causal structure of two-sheeted space-times using the tools of Lorentzian spectral triples. We show that the noncommutative geometry of these spaces allows for causal relations between the two sheets. The computation is given in detail when the sheet is a 2- or 4-dimensional globally hyperbolic spin manifold. The conclusions are then generalised to a point-dependent distance between the two sheets resulting from the fluctuations of the Dirac operator.

  19. Causality in noncommutative two-sheeted space-times

    CERN Document Server

    Franco, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the causal structure of two-sheeted space-times using the tools of Lorentzian spectral triples. We show that the noncommutative geometry of these spaces allows for causal relations between the two sheets. The computation is given in details when the sheet is a 2- or 4-dimensional globally hyperbolic spin manifold. The conclusions are then generalised to a point-dependent distance between the two sheets resulting from the fluctuations of the Dirac operator.

  20. Testing for Causality in Variance Usinf Multivariate GARCH Models

    OpenAIRE

    Christian M. Hafner; Herwartz, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    Tests of causality in variance in multiple time series have been proposed recently, based on residuals of estimated univariate models. Although such tests are applied frequently, little is known about their power properties. In this paper we show that a convenient alternative to residual based testing is to specify a multivariate volatility model, such as multivariate GARCH (or BEKK), and construct a Wald test on noncausality in variance. We compare both approaches to testing causality in var...

  1. On directed information theory and Granger causality graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amblard, Pierre-Olivier; Michel, Olivier J J

    2011-02-01

    Directed information theory deals with communication channels with feedback. When applied to networks, a natural extension based on causal conditioning is needed. We show here that measures built from directed information theory in networks can be used to assess Granger causality graphs of stochastic processes. We show that directed information theory includes measures such as the transfer entropy, and that it is the adequate information theoretic framework needed for neuroscience applications, such as connectivity inference problems.

  2. Stock prices, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: a note

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    This article contributes to the debate on stock prices and exchange rates in Malaysia. It examines causal relations using a new Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-50, 1995). Among the findings of interest, there is a feedback interaction between exchange rates and stock prices for the pre-crisis period. The results also reveal that exchange rates lead stock prices for the crisis period. In a financially liberalized environment, exchange ...

  3. A brief remark on Unruh effect and causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinetti, P [Universita di Roma ' La Sapienza' , 5 piazzale Aldo Moro, 00185 Rome (Italy)

    2007-05-15

    Unruh effect states that the vacuum of a quantum field theory on Minkovski space-time looks like a thermal state for an eternal uniformly accelerated observer. In this talk we present an adaptation for a non eternal observer and discuss some problems that may occur with respect to causality. Specifically we show that our adaptation to a non eternal observer, inspired by the thermal-time hypothesis of Connes and Rovelli, is preserved from violating causality by Heisenberg uncertainty relation.

  4. Causality aspects of the dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porfírio, P. J.; Fonseca-Neto, J. B.; Nascimento, J. R.; Petrov, A. Yu.

    2016-11-01

    We discuss the Gödel-type solutions within the dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity in four dimensions. Within our study, we show that in the vacuum case causal solutions are possible that cannot take place within the nondynamical framework. Another result of ours consists in the possibility for completely causal solutions for all of the types of matter we study in the paper, that is, relativistic fluid, cosmological constant, scalar, and electromagnetic fields.

  5. Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mozumder, Pallab [Environmental Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States)]. E-mail: pallab@tei.umass.edu; Marathe, Achla [Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, 1880 Pratt Drive, Bldg XV, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States)]. E-mail: amarathe@vt.edu

    2007-01-15

    In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model. Our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption. However, the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita GDP in case of Bangladesh. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development.

  6. Implications of Einstein-Weyl Causality on Quantum Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    BenDaniel, D. J.

    2008-01-01

    A fundamental physical principle that has consequences for the topology of space-time is the principle of Einstein-Weyl causality. We show here that this may have implications on quantum mechanics, as well. Borchers and Sen have rigorously investigated the mathematical implications of Einstein-Weyl causality and shown the denumerable space-time Q^2 would be implied. They then imbedded this space in a non-denumerable space but were left with important philosophical paradoxes regarding the natu...

  7. Spectral Causality Measures for Land-Atmosphere Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casagrande, Erik; Mueller, Brigitte; Miralles, Diego; Entekhabi, Dara; Molini, Annalisa

    2014-05-01

    This talk addresses the problem of detecting and inferring the strength and directionality (i.e. causality) of Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions from available observations of climatic and hydrological variables. Our still incomplete understanding of L-A interactions - their inherent complexity, non-stationary features and multi-scale character - is in fact one of the main sources of uncertainty in current climate modeling, with strong implications for our ability to predict in an accurate way future climate. We apply different causality-detection techniques, based on spectral methods and continuous wavelet transform, to unravel the coupling between soil moisture and air temperature, and to give evidence of the importance of soil moisture memory for climate. The proposed mathematical techniques have previously shown the ability of disentangling directional couplings within synthetic multi-scale processes. Also, the frequency-domain causal techniques presented here show several advantages in analyzing L-A couplings and feedbacks when compared to classic methods based on linear correlations, since they are explicitly designed to detect causal couplings and to infer multi-scale and non-stationary relationships. By applying these spectral causal metrics to newly developed satellite-based products and climate reanalysis data, we uncover the contribution of processes acting at different time scales to the build-up of global soil moisture-temperature coupling hot spots, addressing at the same time possible causal effects in land-atmosphere interactions.

  8. Causal Bayes Model of Mathematical Competence in Kindergarten

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božidar Tepeš

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper authors define mathematical competences in the kindergarten. The basic objective was to measure the mathematical competences or mathematical knowledge, skills and abilities in mathematical education. Mathematical competences were grouped in the following areas: Arithmetic and Geometry. Statistical set consisted of 59 children, 65 to 85 months of age, from the Kindergarten Milan Sachs from Zagreb. The authors describe 13 variables for measuring mathematical competences. Five measuring variables were described for the geometry, and eight measuring variables for the arithmetic. Measuring variables are tasks which children solved with the evaluated results. By measuring mathematical competences the authors make causal Bayes model using free software Tetrad 5.2.1-3. Software makes many causal Bayes models and authors as experts chose the model of the mathematical competences in the kindergarten. Causal Bayes model describes five levels for mathematical competences. At the end of the modeling authors use Bayes estimator. In the results, authors describe by causal Bayes model of mathematical competences, causal effect mathematical competences or how intervention on some competences cause other competences. Authors measure mathematical competences with their expectation as random variables. When expectation of competences was greater, competences improved. Mathematical competences can be improved with intervention on causal competences. Levels of mathematical competences and the result of intervention on mathematical competences can help mathematical teachers.

  9. Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Throop, David R.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

    2005-01-01

    In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

  10. Human Papilloma Viruses and Breast Cancer – Assessment of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, James Sutherland; Glenn, Wendy K.; Whitaker, Noel James

    2016-01-01

    High risk human papilloma viruses (HPVs) may have a causal role in some breast cancers. Case–control studies, conducted in many different countries, consistently indicate that HPVs are more frequently present in breast cancers as compared to benign breast and normal breast controls (odds ratio 4.02). The assessment of causality of HPVs in breast cancer is difficult because (i) the HPV viral load is extremely low, (ii) HPV infections are common but HPV associated breast cancers are uncommon, and (iii) HPV infections may precede the development of breast and other cancers by years or even decades. Further, HPV oncogenesis can be indirect. Despite these difficulties, the emergence of new evidence has made the assessment of HPV causality, in breast cancer, a practical proposition. With one exception, the evidence meets all the conventional criteria for a causal role of HPVs in breast cancer. The exception is “specificity.” HPVs are ubiquitous, which is the exact opposite of specificity. An additional reservation is that the prevalence of breast cancer is not increased in immunocompromised patients as is the case with respect to HPV-associated cervical cancer. This indicates that HPVs may have an indirect causal influence in breast cancer. Based on the overall evidence, high-risk HPVs may have a causal role in some breast cancers. PMID:27747193

  11. Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fa-Hsuan Lin

    Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

  12. Limitations of individual causal models, causal graphs, and ignorability assumptions, as illustrated by random confounding and design unfaithfulness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenland, Sander; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

    2015-10-01

    We describe how ordinary interpretations of causal models and causal graphs fail to capture important distinctions among ignorable allocation mechanisms for subject selection or allocation. We illustrate these limitations in the case of random confounding and designs that prevent such confounding. In many experimental designs individual treatment allocations are dependent, and explicit population models are needed to show this dependency. In particular, certain designs impose unfaithful covariate-treatment distributions to prevent random confounding, yet ordinary causal graphs cannot discriminate between these unconfounded designs and confounded studies. Causal models for populations are better suited for displaying these phenomena than are individual-level models, because they allow representation of allocation dependencies as well as outcome dependencies across individuals. Nonetheless, even with this extension, ordinary graphical models still fail to capture distinctions between hypothetical superpopulations (sampling distributions) and observed populations (actual distributions), although potential-outcome models can be adapted to show these distinctions and their consequences.

  13. Caracterização morfocultural e infecção cruzada de Colletotrichum gloeosporioides agente causal da antracnose de frutos e hortaliças em pós-colheita / Morfocultural characterization and cross infection Colletotrichum gloeosporioides causes anthracnose in fruits and vegetables post-harvested

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucimar Pereira Bonett

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available O fungo Colletotrichum gloeosporioides infecta uma grande variedade de plantas em regiões tropicais, subtropicais e temperadas ocasionando consideráveis perdas econômicas em doenças pré e pós-colheita. O objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar a morfologia e a infecção cruzada de isolados de Colletotrichum gloeosporioides obtidos de frutos e hortaliças em pós-colheita. Os isolados foram obtidos de lesões de frutos com sintomas de antracnose e cultivados em meio de cultivo BDA, sendo a avaliação do crescimento micelial realizada por meio de duas leituras diárias do diâmetro das colônias pelo período de quatorze dias e a caracterização morfológica das colônias realizada no final deste período. Para a realização do experimento, utilizou-se o delineamento experimental inteiramente casualisado com três repetições por tratamento. Para o experimento da infecção cruzada foram realizados dois ferimentos em frutos sadios nos quais foram depositados blocos de meio de cultura com 6 mm2 contendo os isolados. O delineamento experimental foi em esquema fatorial de 8 x 8, com quatro repetições. As médias de ambos os experimentos foram analisadas por meio do teste de Scott-Knott com 5% de probabilidade. A maioria dos isolados de C. gloeosporioides possuem grande potencial de infecção cruzada, já que foram capazes de causar lesões em frutos de mamão, manga, abacate, chuchu, jiló, pimentão verde e pimenta. Os isolados de frutos de mamão e abacate apresentaram o maior índice de crescimento micelial e os isolados provenientes do chuchu apresentaram o menor. Quanto ao desenvolvimento de lesões, o mamão apresentou-se mais suscetível, com lesões maiores, enquanto que a pimenta cambuci demonstrou-se a mais resistente, apresentando as menores lesões.

  14. Problemas da sociologia da arte

    OpenAIRE

    Bastide, Roger

    2006-01-01

    A partir de um balanço das realizações consideradas pelo autor como as mais relevantes no campo da sociologia da arte até o final dos anos de 1940, o texto propõe novos rumos para a disciplina, considerando o modo como a arte é socialmente produzida como linguagem e valor.

  15. Opening the Black Box and Searching for Smoking Guns: Process Causality in Qualitative Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Elisabeth E.; McWhorter, Rochell R.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of qualitative research in causality, with particular emphasis on process causality. In one paper, it is not possible to discuss all the issues of causality, but the aim is to provide useful ways of thinking about causality and qualitative research. Specifically, a brief overview of the…

  16. Another(’s perspective on subjectivity in causal connectives: a usage-based analysis of volitional causal relations

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    Ninke Stukker

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Dans une hypothèse de catégorisation linguistique, les connecteurs de cause sont pris comme des outils de catégorisation. En effet, des études sur corpus suggèrent que les connecteurs sont fortement spécialisés dans une seule catégorie de causalité spécifique, mais aussi que leur usage n'est pas limité aux catégories de causalité auxquelles ils sont prototypiquement associés. Si nous supposons que le sens des connecteurs causaux peut être adéquatement décrit en référence à des catégories conceptuelles bien définies, comment pouvons-nous expliquer qu’il y ait une variation dans leur usage réel? Nous mettons l'accent sur les relations de cohérence causale volitionnelle, qui constituent le contexte d'usage prototypique du connecteur néerlandais daarom ‘c'est pourquoi’. Un autre moyen d’expression des relations causales volitionnelles est le recours au connecteur dus ‘alors/donc’ qui est prototypiquement utilisé dans les relations de causalité épistémique. Notre hypothèse est que les relations de causalité volitionnelle exprimées par daarom vs dus diffèrent systématiquement en termes de subjectivité. Nous proposons un modèle d'analyse qui contient de multiples opérationnalisation de la notion de subjectivité et une distinction entre différents niveaux de complexité (sous-clause, clause, et discours. Nous constatons que les relations causales volitionnelles en dus contiennent plus souvent des éléments subjectifs que les relations causales volitionnelles en daarom. Nous interprétons cette distribution au sein d'un cadre théorique fondé sur l'usage (usage-based framework, et nous proposons d'analyser les cas volitionnels de dus comme des instanciations non-prototypiques du sens de dus,qui est donc intrinsèquement subjectif et prototypiquement épistémique.Under a linguistic categorization hypothesis causal connectives are taken as categorization devices. Indeed, corpus studies suggest that

  17. UMA TEORÍA CAUSAL PARA LOS CASOS FREGE

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    ABEL WAJNERMAN PAZ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Fodor ha argumentado a favor de un par de tesis que pueden caracterizarse como constituyendo un dilema: Por un lado, si adoptamos una teoría funcional para los conceptos explicamos semánticamente los casos Frege pero caemos en el holismo semántico. Por otro lado, si adoptamos una teoría causal/informacional evitamos el holismo pero no explicamos los casos Frege semánticamente. Fodor (por ej, 1994, 1998 y 2008 intenta evitar la segunda parte del dilema argumentando que los casos de Frege pueden tener una explicación sintáctica y no semántica. En este trabajo intentaré ofrecer una salida alternativa al dilema fodoriano. Propondré una explicación semántica de los casos Frege que incorpora tanto elementos de una teoría causal como de una de rol funcional. Afirmaré que el contenido cognitivo o estrecho de un concepto (el tipo de contenido aparentemente exigido por los casos Frege es el conjunto de contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones que figuran en su rol funcional. Considero que individuar a las representaciones en los roles por medio de sus contenidos causales permite evitar el holismo (evitando el proceso de ramsificación típicamente empleado para individuar a los roles y que identificar el contenido cognitivo con contenidos causales/informacionales de las representaciones en los roles permite evitar el referencialismo de las propuestas causales (podemos distinguir sentido de referencia en términos causales.

  18. Enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keselman, Alla

    Inquiry learning as an educational method is gaining increasing support among elementary and middle school educators. In inquiry activities at the middle school level, students are typically asked to conduct investigations and infer causal relationships about multivariable causal systems. In these activities, students usually demonstrate significant strategic weaknesses and insufficient metastrategic understanding of task demands. Present work suggests that these weaknesses arise from students' deficient mental models of multivariable causality, in which effects of individual features are neither additive, nor constant. This study is an attempt to develop an intervention aimed at enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality. Three groups of students engaged in a scientific investigation activity over seven weekly sessions. By creating unique combinations of five features potentially involved in earthquake mechanism and observing associated risk meter readings, students had to find out which of the features were causal, and to learn to predict earthquake risk. Additionally, students in the instructional and practice groups engaged in self-directed practice in making scientific predictions. The instructional group also participated in weekly instructional sessions on making predictions based on multivariable causality. Students in the practice and instructional conditions showed small to moderate improvement in their attention to the evidence and in their metastrategic ability to recognize effective investigative strategies in the work of other students. They also demonstrated a trend towards making a greater number of valid inferences than the control group students. Additionally, students in the instructional condition showed significant improvement in their ability to draw inferences based on multiple records. They also developed more accurate knowledge about non-causal features of the system. These gains were maintained

  19. Ordem temporal e inferência causal

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    Warren E. Miller

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Medidas de mudança em pares de variáveis atitudinais podem proporcionar insights Importantes sobre a estrutura dos sistemas de crenças políticas dos públicos de massa. Dados de painéis revelam evidências da grande centralidade de alguns elementos de idéias em vez de outros no contexto de constrangimento dinâmico de curto prazo. A especificação dos atributos teoricamente relevantes dos eleitores torna possível testar diferenças estruturais esperadas que conectam predisposições relacionadas a políticas e preferências por políticas; a especificação também torna possível testar proposições que envolvem os efeitos recíprocos de atitudes e preferências emergentes de voto. Algumas das especificações mais úteis revelam até que ponto a heterogeneidade da população produz uma imagem embaçada de relações quando a análise se baseia no eleitorado total, em vez de se limitar a eleitores ou subconjuntos de eleitores especificados por critérios teóricos.Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provide important insights into the structure of the political belief systems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greater centrality of some idea elements rather than others in the context of short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoretically relevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expected structural differences connecting policy related pre-dispositions and policy preferences; specification also makes it possible to test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudes and emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specifications disclose the extent to which population heterogeneity produces a blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on the total electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets of voters specified by theoretical criteria.

  20. Extraction of Textual Causal Relationships based on Natural Language Processing

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    Sepideh Jamshidi-Nejad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Natural language processing is a highly important subcategory in the wide area of artificial intelligence. Employing appropriate computational algorithms on sophisticated linguistic operations is the aim of natural language processing to extract and create computational theories from languages. In order to achieve this goal, the knowledge of linguists is needed in addition to computer science. In the field of linguistics, the syntactic and semantic relation of words and phrases and the extraction of causation is very significant which the latter is an information retrieval challenge. Recently, there is an increased attention towards the automatic extraction of causation from textual data sets. Although, previous research extracted the casual relations from uninterrupted data sets by using knowledge-based inference technologies and manual coding. Recently, finding comprehensive approaches for detection and extractions of causal arguments is a research area in the field of natural language processing.In this paper, a three-stepped approach is established through which, the position of words with syntax trees is obtained by extracting causation from causal and non-causal sentences of Web text. The arguments of events were extracted according to the dependency tree of phrases implemented by Python packages. Then potential causal relations were extracted by the extraction of specific nodes of the tree. In the final step, a statistical model is introduced for measuring the potential causal relations. Experimental results and evaluations with Recall, Precision and F-measure metrics show the accuracy and efficiency of the suggested model.

  1. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

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    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  2. Identifying expectations about the strength of causal relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Saiwing; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2015-02-01

    When we try to identify causal relationships, how strong do we expect that relationship to be? Bayesian models of causal induction rely on assumptions regarding people's a priori beliefs about causal systems, with recent research focusing on people's expectations about the strength of causes. These expectations are expressed in terms of prior probability distributions. While proposals about the form of such prior distributions have been made previously, many different distributions are possible, making it difficult to test such proposals exhaustively. In Experiment 1 we used iterated learning-a method in which participants make inferences about data generated based on their own responses in previous trials-to estimate participants' prior beliefs about the strengths of causes. This method produced estimated prior distributions that were quite different from those previously proposed in the literature. Experiment 2 collected a large set of human judgments on the strength of causal relationships to be used as a benchmark for evaluating different models, using stimuli that cover a wider and more systematic set of contingencies than previous research. Using these judgments, we evaluated the predictions of various Bayesian models. The Bayesian model with priors estimated via iterated learning compared favorably against the others. Experiment 3 estimated participants' prior beliefs concerning different causal systems, revealing key similarities in their expectations across diverse scenarios.

  3. Corporate Governance and Financial Performance Nexus: Any Bidirectional Causality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alley Ibrahim S.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Most studies on corporate governance recognize endogeneity in the nexus between corporate governance and financial performance. Little attention has, however, been paid to the direction of causality between the two phenomena, and hence the Vector Error Correction (VEC model, which allows for endogenous determination of the direction of causality, has not been widely employed. This study fills that gap by estimating the nexus and the direction of causality using the VEC model to analyze panel data on selected listed firms in Nigeria. The results agree with the findings of most previous studies that corporate governance significantly affects financial performance. Board skills, board composition and management skills enhanced financial performance indicators – return on equity (ROE, return on asset (ROA and net profit margin (NPM; in many occasions, significantly. Board size and audit committee size did not, and can actually undermine financial performance. More importantly, financial performance did not significantly affect corporate governance. On the basis of the lag structure of the VEC model, this study affirms unidirectional causality in the nexus, running from corporate governance to financial performance, nullifying the hypothesis of bidirectional causality in the nexus.

  4. Information flow and causality as rigorous notions ab initio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2016-11-01

    Information flow or information transfer the widely applicable general physics notion can be rigorously derived from first principles, rather than axiomatically proposed as an ansatz. Its logical association with causality is firmly rooted in the dynamical system that lies beneath. The principle of nil causality that reads, an event is not causal to another if the evolution of the latter is independent of the former, which transfer entropy analysis and Granger causality test fail to verify in many situations, turns out to be a proven theorem here. Established in this study are the information flows among the components of time-discrete mappings and time-continuous dynamical systems, both deterministic and stochastic. They have been obtained explicitly in closed form, and put to applications with the benchmark systems such as the Kaplan-Yorke map, Rössler system, baker transformation, Hénon map, and stochastic potential flow. Besides unraveling the causal relations as expected from the respective systems, some of the applications show that the information flow structure underlying a complex trajectory pattern could be tractable. For linear systems, the resulting remarkably concise formula asserts analytically that causation implies correlation, while correlation does not imply causation, providing a mathematical basis for the long-standing philosophical debate over causation versus correlation.

  5. Quantifying causal emergence shows that macro can beat micro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Erik P; Albantakis, Larissa; Tononi, Giulio

    2013-12-01

    Causal interactions within complex systems can be analyzed at multiple spatial and temporal scales. For example, the brain can be analyzed at the level of neurons, neuronal groups, and areas, over tens, hundreds, or thousands of milliseconds. It is widely assumed that, once a micro level is fixed, macro levels are fixed too, a relation called supervenience. It is also assumed that, although macro descriptions may be convenient, only the micro level is causally complete, because it includes every detail, thus leaving no room for causation at the macro level. However, this assumption can only be evaluated under a proper measure of causation. Here, we use a measure [effective information (EI)] that depends on both the effectiveness of a system's mechanisms and the size of its state space: EI is higher the more the mechanisms constrain the system's possible past and future states. By measuring EI at micro and macro levels in simple systems whose micro mechanisms are fixed, we show that for certain causal architectures EI can peak at a macro level in space and/or time. This happens when coarse-grained macro mechanisms are more effective (more deterministic and/or less degenerate) than the underlying micro mechanisms, to an extent that overcomes the smaller state space. Thus, although the macro level supervenes upon the micro, it can supersede it causally, leading to genuine causal emergence--the gain in EI when moving from a micro to a macro level of analysis.

  6. A Causal Model for Fluctuating Sugar Levels in Diabetes Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinzang Chhogyal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Causal models of physiological systems can be immensely useful in medicine as they may be used for both diagnostic and therapeutic reasoning. Aims In this paper we investigate how an agent may use the theory of belief change to rectify simple causal models of changing blood sugar levels in diabetes patients. Method We employ the semantic approach to belief change together with a popular measure of distance called Dalal distance between different state descriptions in order to implement a simple application that simulates the effectiveness of the proposed method in helping an agent rectify a simple causal model. Results Our simulation results show that distance-based belief change can help in improving the agent’s causal knowledge. However, under the current implementation there is no guarantee that the agent will learn the complete model and the agent may at times get stuck in local optima. Conclusion Distance-based belief change can help in refining simple causal models such as the example in this paper. Future work will include larger state-action spaces, better distance measures and strategies for choosing actions.

  7. The Causal Relationship between Health and Education Expenditures in Malaysia

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    Chor Foon TANG

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A major macroeconomic policy in generating economic growth is to encourage investments on human capital such as health and education. This is because both health and education make significant contribution to increasing productivity of the labour force which ultimately exerts a positive effect on raising output levels. A question that arises is whether investments on health and education have a causal relationship and if so, what is the directional causality? The objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between health and education expenditures in Malaysia. This study covered annual data from 1970 to 2007. Using Granger causality as well as Toda and Yamamoto MWALD causality approaches, this study suggests that education Granger-causes health expenditure in both the short run and long run. The findings of this study implied that the Malaysian society places preference on education expenditure rather than health. This preference is not unexpected as generally, an educated and knowledgeable society precedes a healthy one. Before a society has attained a relatively higher level of education, it is less aware of the importance of health. Thus, expenditure on education should lead expenditure on health.

  8. The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erdal, Guelistan; Esenguen, Kemal [Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Gaziosmanpasa University, 60240 Tokat (Turkey); Erdal, Hilmi [Department of Technical Programs, Tokat Vocational School, Gaziosmanpasa University, 60240 Tokat (Turkey)

    2008-10-15

    This paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption (EC) and real Gross National Product (GNP) for Turkey during 1970-2006. We employ unit root tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Philips-Perron (PP), Johansen cointegration test, and Pair-wise Granger causality test to examine relation between EC and GNP. Our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non-stationary. However, first differences of these series lead to stationarity. Further, the results indicate that EC and GNP are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from EC to GNP and vice versa. This means that an increase in EC directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further EC. This bidirectional causality relationship between EC and GNP determined for Turkey at 1970-2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth. (author)

  9. The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective

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    Höfler Michael

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Bradford Hill's considerations published in 1965 had an enormous influence on attempts to separate causal from non-causal explanations of observed associations. These considerations were often applied as a checklist of criteria, although they were by no means intended to be used in this way by Hill himself. Hill, however, avoided defining explicitly what he meant by "causal effect". This paper provides a fresh point of view on Hill's considerations from the perspective of counterfactual causality. I argue that counterfactual arguments strongly contribute to the question of when to apply the Hill considerations. Some of the considerations, however, involve many counterfactuals in a broader causal system, and their heuristic value decreases as the complexity of a system increases; the danger of misapplying them can be high. The impacts of these insights for study design and data analysis are discussed. The key analysis tool to assess the applicability of Hill's considerations is multiple bias modelling (Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis; these methods should be used much more frequently.

  10. Granger causality vs. dynamic Bayesian network inference: a comparative study

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    Feng Jianfeng

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In computational biology, one often faces the problem of deriving the causal relationship among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons and so on, based upon multi-dimensional temporal data. Currently, there are two common approaches used to explore the network structure among elements. One is the Granger causality approach, and the other is the dynamic Bayesian network inference approach. Both have at least a few thousand publications reported in the literature. A key issue is to choose which approach is used to tackle the data, in particular when they give rise to contradictory results. Results In this paper, we provide an answer by focusing on a systematic and computationally intensive comparison between the two approaches on both synthesized and experimental data. For synthesized data, a critical point of the data length is found: the dynamic Bayesian network outperforms the Granger causality approach when the data length is short, and vice versa. We then test our results in experimental data of short length which is a common scenario in current biological experiments: it is again confirmed that the dynamic Bayesian network works better. Conclusion When the data size is short, the dynamic Bayesian network inference performs better than the Granger causality approach; otherwise the Granger causality approach is better.

  11. Effectiveness of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Causality Analysis

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    Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study analyzed the effectiveness of exchange rate on macroeconomic variables of Pakistan. The precise objective of the study is to examine the causality between exchange rate, trade, inflation, FDI and GDP through a series of models. On the annual time series data for the years 1980-2009 unit root test for stationarity, Johansen’s cointegration test for long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables for each model and Granger Causality test to check the causality between the variables is applied. The main findings are as: there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and inflation, but there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade. Thereis also long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and FDI and causality runs in both directions, i.e. exchange rate to FDI and FDI to exchange rate. Finally, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and GDP but causality doesnot run in either direction.

  12. Structural equation modeling: building and evaluating causal models: Chapter 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, James B.; Scheiner, Samuel M.; Schoolmaster, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists frequently wish to study hypotheses about causal relationships, rather than just statistical associations. This chapter addresses the question of how scientists might approach this ambitious task. Here we describe structural equation modeling (SEM), a general modeling framework for the study of causal hypotheses. Our goals are to (a) concisely describe the methodology, (b) illustrate its utility for investigating ecological systems, and (c) provide guidance for its application. Throughout our presentation, we rely on a study of the effects of human activities on wetland ecosystems to make our description of methodology more tangible. We begin by presenting the fundamental principles of SEM, including both its distinguishing characteristics and the requirements for modeling hypotheses about causal networks. We then illustrate SEM procedures and offer guidelines for conducting SEM analyses. Our focus in this presentation is on basic modeling objectives and core techniques. Pointers to additional modeling options are also given.

  13. Causal structures in the four dimensional Euclidean space

    CERN Document Server

    Pestov, I B; Pestov, Ivanhoe B.; Saha, Bijan

    2005-01-01

    It is shown that in the 4d Euclidean space there are two causal structures defined by the temporal field. One of them is well-known Minkowski spacetime. In this case the gravitational potential (the positive definite Riemann metric) and temporal field satisfy the Einstein equations with trivial energy-momentum tensor. However, in the case of the second causal structure the gravitational potential and temporal field should be connected with some nontrivial energy-momentum tensor. We consider the simplest case with energy-momentum tensor of the real scalar field and derive exact solution of the field equations. It can be viewed as the ground to consider the second causal structure on the equal footing with the Minkowski spacetime, i.e., as an object interesting from the physical point of view, especially in the framework of the field theory.

  14. Capturing connectivity and causality in complex industrial processes

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Fan; Shah, Sirish L; Chen, Tongwen

    2014-01-01

    This brief reviews concepts of inter-relationship in modern industrial processes, biological and social systems. Specifically ideas of connectivity and causality within and between elements of a complex system are treated; these ideas are of great importance in analysing and influencing mechanisms, structural properties and their dynamic behaviour, especially for fault diagnosis and hazard analysis. Fault detection and isolation for industrial processes being concerned with root causes and fault propagation, the brief shows that, process connectivity and causality information can be captured in two ways: ·      from process knowledge: structural modeling based on first-principles structural models can be merged with adjacency/reachability matrices or topology models obtained from process flow-sheets described in standard formats; and ·      from process data: cross-correlation analysis, Granger causality and its extensions, frequency domain methods, information-theoretical methods, and Bayesian ne...

  15. Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lemeire

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

  16. Using causal diagrams to guide analysis in missing data problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Rhian M; Kenward, Michael G; Cousens, Simon N; De Stavola, Bianca L

    2012-06-01

    Estimating causal effects from incomplete data requires additional and inherently untestable assumptions regarding the mechanism giving rise to the missing data. We show that using causal diagrams to represent these additional assumptions both complements and clarifies some of the central issues in missing data theory, such as Rubin's classification of missingness mechanisms (as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR)) and the circumstances in which causal effects can be estimated without bias by analysing only the subjects with complete data. In doing so, we formally extend the back-door criterion of Pearl and others for use in incomplete data examples. These ideas are illustrated with an example drawn from an occupational cohort study of the effect of cosmic radiation on skin cancer incidence.

  17. A Taxonomy of Causality-Based Biological Properties

    CERN Document Server

    Bodei, Chiara; Chiarugi, Davide; Gori, Roberta; 10.4204/EPTCS.19.8

    2010-01-01

    We formally characterize a set of causality-based properties of metabolic networks. This set of properties aims at making precise several notions on the production of metabolites, which are familiar in the biologists' terminology. From a theoretical point of view, biochemical reactions are abstractly represented as causal implications and the produced metabolites as causal consequences of the implication representing the corresponding reaction. The fact that a reactant is produced is represented by means of the chain of reactions that have made it exist. Such representation abstracts away from quantities, stoichiometric and thermodynamic parameters and constitutes the basis for the characterization of our properties. Moreover, we propose an effective method for verifying our properties based on an abstract model of system dynamics. This consists of a new abstract semantics for the system seen as a concurrent network and expressed using the Chemical Ground Form calculus. We illustrate an application of this fr...

  18. The why of things: causality in science, medicine, and life

    CERN Document Server

    Rabins, Peter V.

    2013-01-01

    Why was there a meltdown at the Fukushima power plant? Why do some people get cancer and not others? Why is global warming happening? Why does one person get depressed in the face of life's vicissitudes while another finds resilience? Questions like these -- questions of causality -- form the basis of modern scientific inquiry, posing profound intellectual and methodological challenges for researchers in the physical, natural, biomedical, and social sciences. In this groundbreaking book, noted psychiatrist and author Peter Rabins offers a conceptual framework for analyzing daunting questions of causality. Navigating a lively intellectual voyage between the shoals of strict reductionism and relativism, Rabins maps a three-facet model of causality and applies it to a variety of questions in science, medicine, economics, and more. Throughout this book, Rabins situates his argument within relevant scientific contexts, such as quantum mechanics, cybernetics, chaos theory, and epigenetics. A renowned communicator o...

  19. Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the CausalEntropic Principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

    2007-02-20

    We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, it asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach--weighting by the number of ''observers per baryon''--is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

  20. Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the Causal Entropic Principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousso, Raphael; Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

    2007-05-01

    We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, the principle asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach-weighting by the number of"observers per baryon" -- is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

  1. Multivariate Granger Causality Analysis of Obesity Related Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Wheeler, David; Sabo, Roy; Sun, Shumei S

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is a complex health outcome that is a combination of multiple health indicators. Here we attempt to explore the dependence network among multiple aspects of obesity. Two longitudinal cohort studies across multiple decades have been used. The concept of causality is defined similar to Granger causality among multiple time series, however, modified to accommodate multivariate time series as the nodes of the network. Our analysis reveals relatively central position of physical measurements and blood chemistry measures in the overall network across both genders. Also there are some patterns specific to only male or female population. The geometry of the causality network is expected to help in our strategy to control the increasing trend of obesity rate. PMID:26855968

  2. LEARNING GRANGER CAUSALITY GRAPHS FOR MULTIVARIATE NONLINEAR TIME SERIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei GAO; Zheng TIAN

    2009-01-01

    An information theory method is proposed to test the. Granger causality and contemporaneous conditional independence in Granger causality graph models. In the graphs, the vertex set denotes the component series of the multivariate time series, and the directed edges denote causal dependence, while the undirected edges reflect the instantaneous dependence. The presence of the edges is measured by a statistics based on conditional mutual information and tested by a permutation procedure. Furthermore, for the existed relations, a statistics based on the difference between general conditional mutual information and linear conditional mutual information is proposed to test the nonlinearity. The significance of the nonlinear test statistics is determined by a bootstrap method based on surrogate data. We investigate the finite sample behavior of the procedure through simulation time series with different dependence structures, including linear and nonlinear relations.

  3. Causal Space-Times on a Null Lattice

    CERN Document Server

    Schaden, Martin

    2015-01-01

    I investigate a model of quantum gravity based on the first order Hilbert Palatini action with cosmological constant, discretized on a causal null-lattice with SL(2,C) structure group. The description is coordinate invariant and foliates in a causal and physically transparent manner. Lattice variables and observables are constructed. Conditions for a lattice configuration to describe a triangulated causal manifold are derived and encoded by a topological lattice theory. An equivariant BRST-construction is used to partially localize the SL(2,C) structure group of this model to the compact SU(2) of local spatial rotations. The latter in turn is completely localized using the spinors of this formulation. The integration measure of this completely localized model is derived from the SL(2,C)-invariant integration measure and is expressed in terms of SL(2,C)-invariant variables. An invariant regularization of the lattice integration measure that suppresses configurations with small local four-volumes is proposed. N...

  4. Dark matter perturbations and viscosity: a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Acquaviva, Giovanni; Pénin, Aurélie

    2016-01-01

    The inclusion of dissipative effects in cosmic fluids modifies their clustering properties and could have observable effects on the formation of large scale structures. We analyse the evolution of density perturbations of cold dark matter endowed with causal bulk viscosity. The perturbative analysis is carried out in the Newtonian approximation and the bulk viscosity is described by the causal Israel-Stewart (IS) theory. In contrast to the non-causal Eckart theory, we obtain a third order evolution equation for the density contrast that depends on three free parameters. For certain parameter values, the density contrast and growth factor in IS mimic their behaviour in $\\Lambda$CDM when $z \\geq 1$. Interestingly, and contrary to intuition, certain sets of parameters lead to an increase of the clustering.

  5. On the road toward formal reasoning: reasoning with factual causal and contrary-to-fact causal premises during early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovits, Henry

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the development of conditional (if-then) reasoning is critical for theoretical and educational reasons. Here we examined the hypothesis that there is a developmental transition between reasoning with true and contrary-to-fact (CF) causal conditionals. A total of 535 students between 11 and 14 years of age received priming conditions designed to encourage use of either a true or CF alternatives generation strategy and reasoning problems with true causal and CF causal premises (with counterbalanced order). Results show that priming had no effect on reasoning with true causal premises. By contrast, priming with CF alternatives significantly improved logical reasoning with CF premises. Analysis of the effect of order showed that reasoning with CF premises reduced logical responding among younger students but had no effect among older students. Results support the idea that there is a transition in the reasoning processes in this age range associated with the nature of the alternatives generation process required for logical reasoning with true and CF causal conditionals.

  6. On the Capacity of Interference Channel with Causal and Non-causal Generalized Feedback at the Cognitive Transmitter

    CERN Document Server

    Mirmohseni, Mahtab; Aref, Mohammad Reza

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, taking into account the effect of link delays, we investigate the capacity region of the Cognitive Interference Channel (C-IFC), where cognition can be obtained from either causal or non-causal generalized feedback. For this purpose, we introduce the Causal Cognitive Interference Channel With Delay (CC-IFC-WD) in which the cognitive user's transmission can depend on $L$ future received symbols as well as the past ones. We show that the CC-IFC-WD model is equivalent to a classical Causal C-IFC (CC-IFC) with link delays. Moreover, CC-IFC-WD extends both genie-aided and causal cognitive radio channels and bridges the gap between them. First, we derive an outer bound on the capacity region for the arbitrary value of $L$ and specialize this general outer bound to the strong interference case. Then, under strong interference conditions, we tighten the outer bound. To derive the achievable rate regions, we concentrate on three special cases: 1) Classical CC-IFC (L=0), 2) CC-IFC without delay (L=1), an...

  7. How difficult is inference of mammalian causal gene regulatory networks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djordjevic, Djordje; Yang, Andrian; Zadoorian, Armella; Rungrugeecharoen, Kevin; Ho, Joshua W K

    2014-01-01

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play a central role in systems biology, especially in the study of mammalian organ development. One key question remains largely unanswered: Is it possible to infer mammalian causal GRNs using observable gene co-expression patterns alone? We assembled two mouse GRN datasets (embryonic tooth and heart) and matching microarray gene expression profiles to systematically investigate the difficulties of mammalian causal GRN inference. The GRNs were assembled based on > 2,000 pieces of experimental genetic perturbation evidence from manually reading > 150 primary research articles. Each piece of perturbation evidence records the qualitative change of the expression of one gene following knock-down or over-expression of another gene. Our data have thorough annotation of tissue types and embryonic stages, as well as the type of regulation (activation, inhibition and no effect), which uniquely allows us to estimate both sensitivity and specificity of the inference of tissue specific causal GRN edges. Using these unprecedented datasets, we found that gene co-expression does not reliably distinguish true positive from false positive interactions, making inference of GRN in mammalian development very difficult. Nonetheless, if we have expression profiling data from genetic or molecular perturbation experiments, such as gene knock-out or signalling stimulation, it is possible to use the set of differentially expressed genes to recover causal regulatory relationships with good sensitivity and specificity. Our result supports the importance of using perturbation experimental data in causal network reconstruction. Furthermore, we showed that causal gene regulatory relationship can be highly cell type or developmental stage specific, suggesting the importance of employing expression profiles from homogeneous cell populations. This study provides essential datasets and empirical evidence to guide the development of new GRN inference methods for

  8. Inferring connectivity in networked dynamical systems: Challenges using Granger causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusch, Bethany; Maia, Pedro D.; Kutz, J. Nathan

    2016-09-01

    Determining the interactions and causal relationships between nodes in an unknown networked dynamical system from measurement data alone is a challenging, contemporary task across the physical, biological, and engineering sciences. Statistical methods, such as the increasingly popular Granger causality, are being broadly applied for data-driven discovery of connectivity in fields from economics to neuroscience. A common version of the algorithm is called pairwise-conditional Granger causality, which we systematically test on data generated from a nonlinear model with known causal network structure. Specifically, we simulate networked systems of Kuramoto oscillators and use the Multivariate Granger Causality Toolbox to discover the underlying coupling structure of the system. We compare the inferred results to the original connectivity for a wide range of parameters such as initial conditions, connection strengths, community structures, and natural frequencies. Our results show a significant systematic disparity between the original and inferred network, unless the true structure is extremely sparse or dense. Specifically, the inferred networks have significant discrepancies in the number of edges and the eigenvalues of the connectivity matrix, demonstrating that they typically generate dynamics which are inconsistent with the ground truth. We provide a detailed account of the dynamics for the Erdős-Rényi network model due to its importance in random graph theory and network science. We conclude that Granger causal methods for inferring network structure are highly suspect and should always be checked against a ground truth model. The results also advocate the need to perform such comparisons with any network inference method since the inferred connectivity results appear to have very little to do with the ground truth system.

  9. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-07-26

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  10. Timing and causality in the generation of learned eyelid responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raudel eSánchez-Campusano

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The cerebellum-red nucleus-facial motoneuron (Mn pathway has been reported as being involved in the proper timing of classically conditioned eyelid responses. This special type of associative learning serves as a model of event timing for studying the role of the cerebellum in dynamic motor control. Here, we have re-analyzed the firing activities of cerebellar posterior interpositus (IP neurons and orbicularis oculi (OO Mns in alert behaving cats during classical eyeblink conditioning, using a delay paradigm. The aim was to revisit the hypothesis that the IP neurons can be considered a neuronal phase-modulating device supporting OO Mns firing with an emergent timing mechanism and an explicit correlation code during learned eyelid movements. Optimized experimental and computational tools allowed us to determine the different causal relationships (temporal order and correlation code during and between trials. These intra- and inter-trial timing strategies expanding from sub-second range (millisecond timing to longer-lasting ranges (interval timing expanded the functional domain of cerebellar timing beyond motor control. Interestingly, the results supported the above-mentioned hypothesis. The causal inferences were influenced by the precise motor and premotor spike-timing in the cause-effect interval, and, in addition, the timing of the learned responses depended on cerebellar-Mn network causality. Furthermore, the timing of CRs depended upon the probability of simulated causal conditions in the cause-effect interval and not the mere duration of the inter-stimulus interval. In this work, the close relation between timing and causality was verified. It could thus be concluded that the firing activities of IP neurons may be related more to the proper performance of ongoing CRs (i.e., the proper timing as a consequence of the pertinent causality than to their generation and/or initiation.

  11. A hierarchical causal taxonomy of psychopathology across the life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B; Krueger, Robert F; Rathouz, Paul J; Waldman, Irwin D; Zald, David H

    2017-02-01

    We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the 3 levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Granger因果检验的文献回顾%The Literature Review of Granger Causality Test

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘慧峰; 袁军

    2016-01-01

    本文首先介绍了Granger因果关系的概念,探讨了其内涵,并将其与哲学意义上的因果关系、经济学意义上的因果关系进行了比较。进一步从统计学数字特征的角度,对均值Granger因果检验、方差Granger因果检验、分位数Granger因果检验;从序列的平稳性角度,对平稳序列和非平稳序列的Granger因果检验;从函数形式的角度,对线性Granger因果检验与非线性Granger因果检验;从数据类型的角度,对时间序列的Granger因果检验和面板数据的Granger 因果检验进行了综述。在每种分类下,给出了定义、常用的检验模型,及其在经济、金融领域的实证研究。文章最后对滞后阶数的选取、信息准则的选取、Granger因果关系与观测频率、Granger因果检验的实施步骤等关键问题进行了深入的探讨。%This article firstly introduces the conception of Granger causality and differences be-tween it and philosophical causality.Then, we review the definitions, testing methods and empiri-cal study in finance and economics fields of Granger causality from four perspectives:the numeri-cal characters of statistics, stationarity of data, Linearity of functions and the structure of da-ta.The numerical characters of statistics include mean, variance, quantile;the stationarity of da-ta include the stationary data and non-stationary data;the linearity of functions include the linear function and non-linear function; the structure of data includes time series and panel data.Final y, we do further studies on the selections of the number of lags, Information criterion, the relationship between the Granger causality and observing frequencies and the procedures of implementing Granger causality test.

  13. On the Validity of Covariate Adjustment for Estimating Causal Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Shpitser, Ilya; Robins, James M

    2012-01-01

    Identifying effects of actions (treatments) on outcome variables from observational data and causal assumptions is a fundamental problem in causal inference. This identification is made difficult by the presence of confounders which can be related to both treatment and outcome variables. Confounders are often handled, both in theory and in practice, by adjusting for covariates, in other words considering outcomes conditioned on treatment and covariate values, weighed by probability of observing those covariate values. In this paper, we give a complete graphical criterion for covariate adjustment, which we term the adjustment criterion, and derive some interesting corollaries of the completeness of this criterion.

  14. Information–theoretic implications of quantum causal structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaves, Rafael; Majenz, Christian; Gross, David

    2015-01-01

    . However, no systematic method is known for treating such problems in a way that generalizes to quantum systems. Here, we describe a general algorithm for computing information–theoretic constraints on the correlations that can arise from a given causal structure, where we allow for quantum systems as well......It is a relatively new insight of classical statistics that empirical data can contain information about causation rather than mere correlation. First algorithms have been proposed that are capable of testing whether a presumed causal relationship is compatible with an observed distribution......, where a set of few-body quantum systems is distributed among some parties....

  15. The discourse of causal explanations in school science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Tammy Jayne Anne

    Researchers and educators working from a systemic functional linguistic perspective have provided a body of work on science discourse which offers an excellent starting point for examining the linguistic aspects of the development of causal discourse in school science, discourse which Derewianka (1995) claimed is critical to success in secondary school. No work has yet described the development of causal language by identifying the linguistic features present in oral discourse or by comparing the causal discourse of native and non-native (ESL) speakers of English. The current research responds to this gap by examining the oral discourse collected from ESL and non-ESL students at the primary and high school grades. Specifically, it asks the following questions: (1) How do the teachers and students in these four contexts develop causal explanations and their relevant taxonomies through classroom interactions? (2) What are the causal discourse features being used by the students in these four contexts to construct oral causal explanations? The findings of the social practice analysis showed that the teachers in the four contexts differed in their approaches to teaching, with the primary school mainstream teacher focusing largely on the hands-on practice , the primary school ESL teacher moving from practice to theory, the high school mainstream teacher moving from theory to practice, and the high school ESL teacher relying primarily on theory. The findings from the quantitative, small corpus approach suggest that the developmental path of cause which has been identified in the writing of experts shows up not only in written texts but also in the oral texts which learners construct. Moreover, this move appears when the discourse of high school ESL and non-ESL students is compared, suggesting a developmental progression in the acquisition of these features by these students. The findings also reveal that the knowledge constructed, as shown by the concept maps created

  16. Causal Analysis of Databases Concerning Electromagnetism and Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Alonso-Stenberg

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we conducted a causal analysis of a system extracted from a database of current data in the telecommunications domain, namely the Eurobarometer 73.3 database arose from a survey of 26,602 citizens EU on the potential health effects that electromagnetic fields can produce. To determine the cause-effect relationships between variables, we represented these data by a directed graph that can be applied to a qualitative version of the theory of discrete chaos to highlight causal circuits and attractors, as these are basic elements of system behavior.

  17. Causality and Kramers-Kronig relations for waveguides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakestad, Magnus; Skaar, Johannes

    2005-11-28

    Starting from the condition that optical signals propagate causally, we derive Kramers-Kronig relations for waveguides. For hollow waveguides with perfectly conductive walls, the modes propagate causally and Kramers-Kronig relations between the real and imaginary part of the mode indices exist. For dielectric waveguides, there exists a Kramers-Kronig type relation between the real mode index of a guided mode and the imaginary mode indices associated with the evanescent modes. For weakly guiding waveguides, the Kramers-Kronig relations are particularly simple, as the modal dispersion is determined solely from the profile of the corresponding mode field.

  18. Causality relations for materials with strong artificial optical chirality

    CERN Document Server

    Gorkunov, M V; Ezhov, A A; Artemov, V V; Rogov, O Y

    2014-01-01

    We demonstrate that the fundamental causality principle being applied to strongly chiral artificial materials yields the generalized Kramers-Kronig relations for the observables -- circular dichroism and optical activity. The relations include the Blaschke terms determined by material-specific features - the zeros of transmission amplitude on the complex frequency plane. By the example of subwavelength arrays of chiral holes in silver films we show that the causality relations can be used not only for a precise verification of experimental data but also for resolving the positions of material anomalies and resonances and quantifying the degree of their chiral splitting.

  19. Temporal sequence in observational studies to establish causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article includes a brief summary on the scope of the notions of causality and risk and considers some operational difficulties that arise when dealing with problems associated with them. It underscores the vital importance of timing and its link with the most commonly used observational research designs that address causal relationships. The article describes in detail the need to record the order in which the relevant events occur and how to consider this in the analysis. A detailed example of errors that are usually incurred in and their effect is provided.

  20. Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vimaleswaran, Karani S; Berry, Diane J; Lu, Chen

    2013-01-01

    Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional ......Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi...

  1. The Framework, Causal and Co-compact Structure of Space-time

    CERN Document Server

    Kovár, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a canonical, compact topology, which we call weakly causal, naturally generated by the causal site of J. D. Christensen and L. Crane, a pointless algebraic structure motivated by certain problems of quantum gravity. We show that for every four-dimensional globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifold there exists an associated causal site, whose weakly causal topology is co-compact with respect to the manifold topology and vice versa. Thus, the causal site has the full information about the topology of space-time, represented by the Lorentzian manifold. In addition, we show that there exist also non-Lorentzian causal sites (whose causal relation is not a continuous poset) and so the weakly causal topology and its de Groot dual extends the usual manifold topology of space-time beyond topologies generated by the traditional, smooth model. As a source of inspiration in topologizing the studied causal structures, we use some methods and constructions of general topology and formal concept analysis.

  2. Simulation of system models containing zero-order causal paths - I. Classification of zero-order causal paths

    OpenAIRE

    Dijk, van, Nico M.; Breedveld, P.C.

    1991-01-01

    The existence of zero-order causal paths in bond graphs of physical systems implies the set of state equations to be an implicit mixed set of Differential and Algebraic Equations (DAEs). In the block diagram expansion of such a bond graph, this type of causal path corresponds with a zero-order loop. In this paper the numerical solution of the DAEs by methods commonly used for solving stiff systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) is discussed. Apart from a description of the numerica...

  3. Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Gold Coast (Australia); Prasad, Arti [School of Economics, University of the South Pacific, Suva (Fiji)

    2008-02-15

    The goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real GDP for 30 OECD countries. We use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real GDP in Australia, Iceland, Italy, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Korea, Portugal, and the UK. The implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real GDP in these countries. However, for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real GDP. (author)

  4. Causal Model of Stress and Coping: Women in Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Bonita C.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Tested model of managerial women's (n=249) stress. Model was developed from Lazarus's theoretical framework of stress/coping and incorporated causal antecedent constructs (demographics, sex role attitudes, agentic traits), mediating constructs (environment, appraisals, engagement coping, disengagement coping), and outcomes (work performance,…

  5. Causality: School Libraries and Student Success (CLASS). White Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    American Association of School Librarians, 2014

    2014-01-01

    On April 11 and 12, 2014, the American Association of School Librarians (AASL) held "Causality: School Libraries and Student Success" (CLASS), an IMLS-funded national forum. Dr. Thomas Cook, one of the most influential methodologists in education research, and a five member panel of expert scholars and practitioners led 50 established…

  6. The Role of Causal Models in Analogical Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hee Seung; Holyoak, Keith J.

    2008-01-01

    Computational models of analogy have assumed that the strength of an inductive inference about the target is based directly on similarity of the analogs and in particular on shared higher order relations. In contrast, work in philosophy of science suggests that analogical inference is also guided by causal models of the source and target. In 3…

  7. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  8. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Mello da Silva

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  9. A Causal Model of Teacher Acceptance of Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jui-Ling; Lieu, Pang-Tien; Liang, Jung-Hui; Liu, Hsiang-Te; Wong, Seng-lee

    2012-01-01

    This study proposes a causal model for investigating teacher acceptance of technology. We received 258 effective replies from teachers at public and private universities in Taiwan. A questionnaire survey was utilized to test the proposed model. The Lisrel was applied to test the proposed hypotheses. The result shows that computer self-efficacy has…

  10. Theory of Mind, Causal Attribution and Paranoia in Asperger Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackshaw, Alison J.; Kinderman, Peter; Hare, Dougal J.; Hatton, Chris

    2001-01-01

    Twenty-five participants (ages 15-40) with Asperger syndrome scored significantly higher on a measure of paranoia and lower on a measure of theory of mind, compared with a control group. They did not differ in self-concept and causal attributions. A regression analysis highlighted private self-consciousness as the only predictor of paranoia.…

  11. The causal effect of institutional quality on outsourcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelfsema, H.J.; Yi, Zhang

    2009-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between institutional quality and outsourcing to developing economies. In contrast to cross-sectional studies on institutions, this paper uses panel data for 76 countries over 25 years (1980-2004). Employing panel data helps to show the causal rel

  12. Vitamin D and high blood pressure: causal association or epiphenomenon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunutsor, Setor K; Burgess, Stephen; Munroe, Patricia B; Khan, Hassan

    2014-01-01

    High plasma levels of vitamin D are associated with a reduced risk of high blood pressure, but whether this association is causal remains to be ascertained. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials, to examine the effect of vitamin D supplementation on both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and supplemented these results with a Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate the causal relationship between vitamin D status (25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]) and BP. Pooled random effects meta-analysis of weighted mean differences across 16 trials of vitamin D supplementation showed a non-significant reduction in SBP (-0.94, 95% CI -2.98, 1.10 mmHg) and DBP (-0.52, 95% CI -1.18, 0.14 mmHg), with evidence of heterogeneity (I(2) = 67.9%, P causal effects of a doubling of genetically-elevated risk of vitamin D deficiency were 0.14 mmHg (95% CI -0.19, 0.47, P = 0.42), and 0.12 mmHg (95% CI -0.09, 0.33, P = 0.25) on SBP and DBP respectively. Additional evidence from genetic data are directionally consistent with clinical trial data, though underpowered to reliably demonstrate a strong causal effect of vitamin D status on BP. Further investigation may be warranted.

  13. The Causal Effect of Campus Residency on College Student Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schudde, Lauren T.

    2011-01-01

    Despite theoretical evidence positing a positive relationship between campus residency and collegiate outcomes, prior research has not established a causal link. Utilizing propensity score matching and national longitudinal data, this study investigates whether living in university-owned housing impacts retention. The results suggest that the…

  14. Perceived causality, force, and resistance in the absence of launching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Timothy L; Ruppel, Susan E

    2016-07-29

    In the launching effect, a moving object (the launcher) contacts a stationary object (the target), and upon contact, the launcher stops and the target begins moving in the same direction and at the same or slower velocity as previous launcher motion (Michotte, 1946/1963). In the study reported here, participants viewed a modified launching effect display in which the launcher stopped before or at the moment of contact and the target remained stationary. Participants rated perceived causality, perceived force, and perceived resistance of the launcher on the target or the target on the launcher. For launchers and for targets, increases in the size of the spatial gap between the final location of the launcher and the location of the target decreased ratings of perceived causality and ratings of perceived force and increased ratings of perceived resistance. Perceived causality, perceived force, and perceived resistance exhibited gradients or fields extending from the launcher and from the target and were not dependent upon contact of the launcher and target. Causal asymmetries and force asymmetries reported in previous studies did not occur, and this suggests that such asymmetries might be limited to typical launching effect stimuli. Deviations from Newton's laws of motion are noted, and the existence of separate radii of action extending from the launcher and from the target is suggested.

  15. A Geometric formulation of the causal Interpretation of quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, W. R.; Papini, G.

    1993-06-01

    The principles of the causal interpretation are embodied in a conformally invariant theory in Weyl space. The particle is represented by a spherically symmetric thin-shell solution to Einstein's equations. Use of the Gauss-Mainardi-Codazzi formalism yields new insights into the issues of nonlocality, the quantum potential, and the guidance mechanism.

  16. Effects of Perceived Causality on Perceptions of Persons Who Stutter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Michael P.; Blood, Gordon W.; Blood, Ingrid M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the effects of the perceived cause of stuttering on perceptions of persons who stutter (PWS) using a 7-item social distance scale, a 25-item adjective pair scale and a 2-item visual analogue scale. Two hundred and four university students rated vignettes which varied on describing a PWS with different causalities for stuttering…

  17. Testing for causality in variance using multivariate GARCH models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. Hafner (Christian); H. Herwartz

    2004-01-01

    textabstractTests of causality in variance in multiple time series have been proposed recently, based on residuals of estimated univariate models. Although such tests are applied frequently little is known about their power properties. In this paper we show that a convenient alternative to residual

  18. The Importance of Qualitative Research for Causal Explanation in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Joseph A.

    2012-01-01

    The concept of causation has long been controversial in qualitative research, and many qualitative researchers have rejected causal explanation as incompatible with an interpretivist or constructivist approach. This rejection conflates causation with the positivist "theory" of causation, and ignores an alternative understanding of causation,…

  19. Fertility and Female Employment: Problems of Causal Direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, James C.

    1980-01-01

    Considers multicollinearity in nonrecursive models, misspecification of models, discrepancies between attitudes and behavior, and differences between static and dynamic models as explanations for contradictory information on the causal relationship between fertility and female employment. Finds that initially fertility affects employment but that,…

  20. Causality and skies: is non-refocussing necessary?

    CERN Document Server

    Bautista, A; Lafuente, J

    2014-01-01

    It is shown that if $M$ is a strongly causal free of naked singularities space-time, then its causal structure is completely characterized by a partial order in the space of skies defined by means of a class non-negative Legendrian isotopies. It is also proved that such partial order is determined by the class of future causal celestial curves, that is, curves in the space of light rays which are tangent to skies and such that they determine non-negative sky-Legendrian isotopies. It will also be proved that the space of skies $\\Sigma$ equipped with Low's (or reconstructive) topology is homeomorphic and diffeomorphic to $M$ under the only additional assumption that $M$ separates skies, that is, that different points determine different skies. The sky-separating property of $M$ being weaker than the "non-refocussing" property encountered in the previous literature is sharp and the previous result provides the answer to the question of what is the class of space-times whose causal structure, topology and differe...