WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic incident recovery

  1. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  2. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  3. A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

    2017-07-01

    To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  5. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

  6. Finding the Sweet Spot for Catastrophic Incident Search and Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    with SAR assets. Another high-tech SAR structure is found in the Cosmicheskaya Sistema Poiska Avariynyh Sudov56 (COSPAS-SARSAT) system. This model...shows clear 56 COSPAS is an acronym for the Russian, “Cosmicheskaya Sistema Poiska Avariynyh...under each of the preparedness categories. HSPD 5 is the companion document to HSPD 8, which discusses management of domestic incidents (Bush, 2003

  7. Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

    2017-02-06

    Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

  8. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  9. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  10. Factors influencing recovery and restoration following a chemical incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Fernández, A; Wyke, S; Brooke, N; Duarte-Davidson, R

    2014-11-01

    Chemicals are an important part of our society. A wide range of chemicals are discharged into the environment every day from residential, commercial and industrial sources. Many of these discharges do not pose a threat to public health or the environment. However, global events have shown that chemical incidents or accidents can have severe consequences on human health, the environment and society. It is important that appropriate tools and technical guidance are available to ensure that a robust and efficient approach to developing a remediation strategy is adopted. The purpose of remediation is to protect human health from future exposure and to return the affected area back to normal as soon as possible. There are a range of recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) that are applicable to a broad range of chemicals and incidents. Recovery options should be evaluated according to their appropriateness and efficacy for removing contaminants from the environment; however economic drivers and social and political considerations often influence decision makers on which remedial actions are implemented during the recovery phase of a chemical incident. To date, there is limited information in the literature on remediation strategies and recovery options that have been implemented following a chemical incident, or how successful they have been. Additional factors that can affect the approach taken for recovery are not well assessed or understood by decision makers involved in the remediation and restoration of the environment following a chemical incident. The identification of this gap has led to the development of the UK Recovery Handbook for Chemical Incidents to provide a framework for choosing an effective recovery strategy. A compendium of practical evidence-based recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) for inhabited areas, food production systems and water environments has also been developed and is included in the chemical

  11. Cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in Nepal: results from the living standards survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Mamata; Ayer, Rakesh; Kondo, Masahide

    2018-02-14

    Nepal has committed to the global community to achieve universal health coverage by 2030. Nevertheless, Nepal still has a high proportion of out-of-pocket health payment and a limited risk-pooling mechanism. Out-of-pocket payment for the healthcare services could result in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). Evidence is required to effectively channel the efforts to lower those expenses in order to achieve universal health coverage. However, little is known about CHE and its determinants in a broad national context in Nepal. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore the cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of CHE in Nepal. Data were obtained from the nationally representative survey, the Nepal Living Standards Survey-third undertaken in 2010/11. Information from 5988 households was used for the analyses. Households were classified as having CHE when their out-of-pocket health payment was greater than or equal to 40% of their capacity to pay. Remaining households were classified as not having CHE. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify determinants of CHE. Based on household-weighted sample, the cumulative incidence of CHE was 10.3% per month in Nepal. This incidence was concentrated in the far-western region and households in the poorer expenditure quartiles. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that households were more likely to face CHE if they; consisted of chronically ill member(s), have a higher burden of acute illness and injuries, have elderly (≥60 years) member(s), belonged to the poor expenditure quartile, and were located in the far-western region. In contrast, households were less likely to incur CHE when their household head was educated. Having children (≤5 years) in households did not significantly affect catastrophic health expenditure. This study identified a high cumulative incidence of CHE. CHE was disproportionately concentrated in the poor households and households located in the far

  12. Income related inequality and influencing factors: a study for the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure in rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Hai; Kou, Yun; Yan, Zhiwen; Ding, Yilei; Shieh, Jusheng; Sun, Jun; Cui, Nan; Wang, Qianjing; You, Hua

    2017-09-20

    Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) puts a heavy disease burden on patients' families, aggravating income-related inequality. In an attempt to reduce the financial risks of rural families incurring CHE, China began the New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NCMS) on a trial basis in 2003 and has raised the reimbursement rates continuously since then. Based on statistical data about rural families in sample area of Jiangsu province, this study measures the incidence of CHE, analyzes socioeconomic inequality related to CHE, and explores the influences of the NCMS on the incidence of CHE. Statistical data were acquired from two surveys about rural health care, one conducted in 2009 and one conducted in 2010. In 2009, 1424 rural families were analyzed; in 2010, 1796 rural families were analyzed. An index of CHE is created to enable the evaluation of the associated financial risks. The concentration index and concentration curve are used to measure the income-related inequality involved in CHE. Multiple logistic regression is utilized to explore the factors that influence the incidence of CHE. The incidence of CHE decreased from 13.62% in 2009 to 7.74% in 2010. The concentration index of CHE was changed from -0.298 (2009) to -0.323 (2010). Compared with rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, rural families in which some members were not covered by the NCMS had a lower incidence of CHE: The odds ratio is 0.65 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.43 to 1.00. For rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, the increase in reimbursement rates is correlated to the decline in the incidence of CHE if other influencing factors were controlled: The odds ratio is 0.48 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.36 to 0.64. Between 2009 and 2010, the incidence rate of CHE in the sampled area decreased sharply, CHE was more concentrated among least wealthy and inequality increased during study period. As of 2010, the poorest rural families still had

  13. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, J.C.; Lambert, M.I.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Readhead, C.; van Mechelen, W.; Viljoen, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design: Prospective. Setting: The South African

  14. Considering employee needs during a catastrophe requires innovative recovery plans: Why traditional workplace recovery solutions are outdated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Joe

    2017-01-01

    Mobile technology has changed the way we live and operate, with co-working, flexible spaces and home office solutions that offer us the freedom to work when and where we choose. However, when disaster strikes the workplace, people are often the last to be considered in the recovery process. This paper examines strategies for businesses and their employees to continue working after a disaster strikes. It explores the trends in the market, the benefits and drawbacks of different approaches and the attitudes of continuity experts and small business owners who have the responsibility to ensure that businesses, and people, continue to function, even when their main place of work is inaccessible. Informed by expertise and experience, this paper also draws on the extant literature, as well as bespoke research targeted at both continuity professionals and business decision-makers, to discover more about attitudes to disaster recovery.

  15. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  16. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design Prospective. Setting The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. Participants An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union (‘rugby’) players (population at risk). Outcome measures Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries—fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. Results The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. Conclusions The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme. PMID:23447464

  17. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

  18. 32 CFR 537.6 - Identification of recovery incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... personnel to ensure that inpatient and outpatient records and emergency room and clinic logs are properly screened to identify potential cases. The RJA or recovery attorney will screen the MTF comptroller records database and division records as well as ambulance logs to identify potential medical care recovery cases...

  19. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  20. Key Planning Factors for Recovery from a Radiological Terrorism Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    measurements are made, these are collected electronically4 and automatically exported to local operation centers and incident command posts where the...economic, natural and built environments and a move to self-sufficiency, sustainability and resilience.” As can be seen in Figure 3-11, some long-term...Transportation and access routes Bridges Streets and thoroughfares Sidewalks and walkways Release of property from radiologically controlled areas

  1. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  2. Recovery from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents. Critical infrastructure and economic impact considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franco, David Oliver [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Yang, Lynn I. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hammer, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-06-01

    To restore regional lifeline services and economic activity as quickly as possible after a chemical, biological or radiological incident, emergency planners and managers will need to prioritize critical infrastructure across many sectors for restoration. In parallel, state and local governments will need to identify and implement measures to promote reoccupation and economy recovery in the region. This document provides guidance on predisaster planning for two of the National Disaster Recovery Framework Recovery Support Functions: Infrastructure Systems and Economic Recovery. It identifies key considerations for infrastructure restoration, outlines a process for prioritizing critical infrastructure for restoration, and identifies critical considerations for promoting regional economic recovery following a widearea disaster. Its goal is to equip members of the emergency preparedness community to systematically prioritize critical infrastructure for restoration, and to develop effective economic recovery plans in preparation for a widearea CBR disaster.

  3. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  4. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

  5. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

    2015-01-01

    The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance

  6. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn A Fancourt

    Full Text Available The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their

  7. Supporting staff recovery and reintegration after a critical incident resulting in infant death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesler, Roberta; Ward, Debra; Short, Mary

    2009-08-01

    A critical incident is described as any sudden unexpected event that has the power to overwhelm the usual effective coping skills of an individual or a group and can cause significant psychological distress in usually healthy persons. A Just Culture model to deal with critical incidents is an approach that seeks to identify and balance system events and personal accountability. This article reports a critical incident that occurred at the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Methodist Hospital of Indianapolis, when 5 infants received an overdose of heparin that resulted in the death of 3 infants. Although care of the family after the critical incident was the immediate priority, the focus of this article was on the recovery and reintegration of the NICU staff after a critical incident based on the Just Culture philosophy.

  8. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  9. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  10. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  11. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  12. PREVAIL: Predicting Recovery through Estimation and Visualization of Active and Incident Lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dworkin, Jordan D; Sweeney, Elizabeth M; Schindler, Matthew K; Chahin, Salim; Reich, Daniel S; Shinohara, Russell T

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study was to develop a model that integrates imaging and clinical information observed at lesion incidence for predicting the recovery of white matter lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Demographic, clinical, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were obtained from 60 subjects with MS as part of a natural history study at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. A total of 401 lesions met the inclusion criteria and were used in the study. Imaging features were extracted from the intensity-normalized T1-weighted (T1w) and T2-weighted sequences as well as magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) sequence acquired at lesion incidence. T1w and MTR signatures were also extracted from images acquired one-year post-incidence. Imaging features were integrated with clinical and demographic data observed at lesion incidence to create statistical prediction models for long-term damage within the lesion. The performance of the T1w and MTR predictions was assessed in two ways: first, the predictive accuracy was measured quantitatively using leave-one-lesion-out cross-validated (CV) mean-squared predictive error. Then, to assess the prediction performance from the perspective of expert clinicians, three board-certified MS clinicians were asked to individually score how similar the CV model-predicted one-year appearance was to the true one-year appearance for a random sample of 100 lesions. The cross-validated root-mean-square predictive error was 0.95 for normalized T1w and 0.064 for MTR, compared to the estimated measurement errors of 0.48 and 0.078 respectively. The three expert raters agreed that T1w and MTR predictions closely resembled the true one-year follow-up appearance of the lesions in both degree and pattern of recovery within lesions. This study demonstrates that by using only information from a single visit at incidence, we can predict how a new lesion will recover using relatively simple statistical techniques. The

  13. Attenuated Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Testing and Risk of Incident Hypertension in Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Bunsawat, Kanokwan; Fadel, Paul J; Fernhall, Bo; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Park, Jeong Bae; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-09-01

    Although attenuated heart rate recovery (HRR) and reduced heart rate (HR) reserve to maximal exercise testing are associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes, their relation to incident hypertension in healthy normotensive populations is unclear. We examined the hypothesis that both attenuated HRR and reduced HR reserve to exercise testing are associated with incident hypertension in men. A total of 1,855 participants were selected comprising of healthy, initially normotensive men who underwent peak or symptom-limited treadmill testing at baseline. HRR was calculated as the difference between peak HR during exercise testing and the HR at 2 minutes after exercise cessation. HR reserve was calculated as the percentage of HR reserve (peak HR - resting HR)/(220 - age - resting HR) × 100. During an average 4-year follow-up, 179 (9.6%) men developed hypertension. Incident hypertension was associated with HRR quartiles (Q1 (57 bpm) 8.3%; P = 0.05 for trend). The relative risk (RR) of the incident hypertension in the slowest HRR quartile vs. the fastest HRR quartile was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-2.78) after adjustment for confounders. Every 1 bpm increment in HRR was associated with a 2% (RR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99) lower risk of incident hypertension after adjusting for potential confounders. In contrast, reduced HR reserve did not predict the risk of incident hypertension. Slow HRR after exercise testing is independently associated with the development of hypertension in healthy normotensive men. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. The Incidence of Delirium in Patients After Surgery in Recovery Room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila M juybari

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective: Delirium is an acute and transient disorder in the function of the brain. Although the main core of this syndrome is consciousness disorder and deficiencies in attention and concentration, the general deficiency is seen in all psychological areas of thinking, temperament, cognition, language, speaking, sleeping, and mental-motional and other cognitive areas. Delirium is often seen in recovery room and is a predictor of post-operative delirium in the general ward. This study was conducted to determine the incidence of delirium in patients after surgery in the recovery room.Materials and Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 75 patients after general and orthopedic surgery and in the recovery room of the educational-therapeutic center of Gorgan in 1389 using the DESC-Nu nursing delirium screening scale. Data was analyzed using chi-square descriptive and analytical statistics and T-test.Results: Among the 75 studied patients in the recovery room after orthopedic surgery and general surgery, 53.3% were women with a mean age of 48.7. The mean surgery duration was 129.21 minutes. 26.6% had been under spinal anesthesia and 73.3% had been under general anesthesia. Delirium was observed in 30.6% of all the patients. Delirium was observed in 21.3% of patients having orthopedic surgery and 9.3% of the patients having general surgery. Delirium had a significant statistical relation with the variables of age, gender, and type of surgery (p<0.05.Conclusion: This study showed that 30.6% of patients had delirium. Male and older patients having orthopedic surgery were more vulnerable. Therefore, usual assessment of delirium in recovery room to identify patients with delirium can be a guide of nurses’ appropriate care of patients after surgery.

  15. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  16. A method of incident angle estimation for high resolution spectral recovery in filter-array-based spectrometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Cheolsun; Lee, Woong-Bi; Ju, Gun Wu; Cho, Jeonghoon; Kim, Seongmin; Oh, Jinkyung; Lim, Dongsung; Lee, Yong Tak; Lee, Heung-No

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in miniature spectrometers for research and development. Especially, filter-array-based spectrometers have advantages of low cost and portability, and can be applied in various fields such as biology, chemistry and food industry. Miniaturization in optical filters causes degradation of spectral resolution due to limitations on spectral responses and the number of filters. Nowadays, many studies have been reported that the filter-array-based spectrometers have achieved resolution improvements by using digital signal processing (DSP) techniques. The performance of the DSP-based spectral recovery highly depends on the prior information of transmission functions (TFs) of the filters. The TFs vary with respect to an incident angle of light onto the filter-array. Conventionally, it is assumed that the incident angle of light on the filters is fixed and the TFs are known to the DSP. However, the incident angle is inconstant according to various environments and applications, and thus TFs also vary, which leads to performance degradation of spectral recovery. In this paper, we propose a method of incident angle estimation (IAE) for high resolution spectral recovery in the filter-array-based spectrometers. By exploiting sparse signal reconstruction of the L1- norm minimization, IAE estimates an incident angle among all possible incident angles which minimizes the error of the reconstructed signal. Based on IAE, DSP effectively provides a high resolution spectral recovery in the filter-array-based spectrometers.

  17. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, W.H.; Zapata, L.A.

    2013-01-01

    The Iridium-192 ( 192 Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m 2 , some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  18. Considering the unthinkable—A review and discussion of current international law and suggestions regarding how we deal with a catastrophic incident in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer-Downie, Darcy

    2013-12-01

    It is now clear that private enterprise and not nationally funded space agencies will be the driving force behind development of space for the "benefit" of private enterprise and the general public. It is also not unreasonable to say that in the next 20-30 years we will see the public accessing space via sub-orbital flights, orbital excursions, orbiting hotels and possibly even hotels located on a celestial body. The existing principles regarding the rescue and return of "astronauts" was never fit for purpose and is certainly not appropriate for this new era of private space activity. Activities in space are dangerous and the travelling public is generally risk adverse. So how do we balance the obvious risks associated with space travel, against the societal desire to seek adventures in space and with the prevailing risk adverse culture? It is now time to seriously consider the development of international safety standards for space vehicles and habitations in order to ensure that rescue and return from a space excursion is a reality for passengers and crew. If we fail to do so then the scenario set out below may become a tragic reality. Catastrophic ScenarioConsider a scenario in which a space hotel loses a significant amount of its in-orbit life support capability. Rescue is underway but it will take time. The Captain realises that there is not enough oxygen on board for all to survive until rescue. What if anything can be done?

  19. Determinants of medication incident reporting, recovery, and learning in community pharmacies: a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Todd A; Mahaffey, Thomas; Mackinnon, Neil J; Deal, Heidi; Hallstrom, Lars K; Morgan, Holly

    2011-03-01

    Evidence suggests that the underreporting of medication errors and near misses, collectively referred to as medication incidents (MIs), in the community pharmacy setting, is high. Despite the obvious negative implications, MIs present opportunities for pharmacy staff and regulatory authorities to learn from these mistakes and take steps to reduce the likelihood that they reoccur. However, these activities can only take place if such errors are reported and openly discussed. This research proposes a model of factors influencing the reporting, service recovery, and organizational learning resulting from MIs within Canadian community pharmacies. The conceptual model is based on a synthesis of the literature and findings from a pilot study conducted among pharmacy management, pharmacists, and pharmacy technicians from 13 community pharmacies in Nova Scotia, Canada. The purpose of the pilot study was to identify various actions that should be taken to improve MI reporting and included staff perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of their current MI-reporting process, desired characteristics of a new process, and broader external and internal activities that would likely improve reporting. Out of the 109 surveys sent, 72 usable surveys were returned (66.1% response rate). Multivariate analysis of variance found no significant differences among staff type in their perceptions of the current or new desired system but were found for broader initiatives to improve MI reporting. These findings were used for a proposed structural equation model (SEM). The SEM proposes that individual-perceived self-efficacy, MI process capability, MI process support, organizational culture, management support, and regulatory authority all influence the completeness of MI reporting, which, in turn, influences MI service recovery and learning. This model may eventually be used to enable pharmacy managers to make better decisions. By identifying risk factors that contribute to low MI

  20. Variation in emission and energy recovery concerning incident angle in a scheme recovering high energy ions by secondary electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Takayuki; Konno, Shota; Nakamoto, Satoshi; Takeno, Hiromasa; Furuyama, Yuichi; Taniike, Akira

    2016-01-01

    As an energy recovery device for fast protons produced in D- 3 He nuclear fusion, secondary electron (SE) direct energy converter (SEDEC) was proposed in addition to traveling wave direct energy converter (TWDEC). Some protons passing through a TWDEC come into an SEDEC, where protons penetrate to a number of foil electrodes and emitted SEs are recovered. Following to a development of SE orbit control by magnetic field, dependence on incident angle of protons was examined to optimize structure of SEDEC. Based on a theoretical expectation, experiments were performed by changing incident angle of protons and variation in emission and energy recovery were measured. Both emission and energy recovery increased as the angle increased, and differences with theoretical expectation are discussed. (author)

  1. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  2. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  3. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  4. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  5. Recovery from a chemical weapons accident or incident: A concept paper on planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herzenberg, C.L.; Haffenden, R.; Lerner, K.; Meleski, S.A.; Tanzman, E.A. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Lewis, L.M. [US Dept. of Agriculture (United States); Hemphill, R.C. [Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (United States); Adams, J.D. [US Environmental Protection Agency (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Emergency planning for an unintended release of chemical agent from the nation`s chemical weapons stockpile should include preparation for. the period following implementation of immediate emergency response. That period -- the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage -- is the subject of this report. The report provides an overview of the role of recovery, reentry, and restoration planning in the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP), describes the transition from immediate emergency response to restoration, and analyzes the legal framework that would govern restoration activities. Social, economic, and administrative issues, as well as technical ones, need to be considered in the planning effort. Because of possible jurisdictional conflicts, appropriate federal, state, and local agencies need to be included in a coordinated planning process. Advance consideration should be given to the pertinent federal and state statutes and regulations. On the federal level, the principal statutes and regulations to be considered are those associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and the National Environmental Policy Act. This report recommends that extensive preaccident planning be undertaken for the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage and outlines several key issues that should be considered in that planning. The need for interagency cooperation and coordination at all levels of the planning process is emphasized.

  6. Key Planning Factors for Recovery from a Chemical Warfare Agent Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    challenges that may arise in such an incident. Audiences for this document include local, regional, state, and federal stakeholders within the...the Denver Mint, Coors Field, Pepsi Center, the Metropolitan State College of Denver, and Mile High Field. In parallel, members of the population

  7. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  8. Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-02-01

    Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  10. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  11. Incidence of venous thromboembolic events in enhanced recovery after surgery for colon cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vendler, M M I; Haidari, T A; Waage, J E

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Both the Danish and the National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend prolonged thromboprophylaxis (PT) with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) for 28 days postoperatively after elective surgery for colon cancer. The evidence relies on data from two randomized clinical...... trials (RCTs) that included not only colon cancers but also other abdominal cancers or benign colorectal diseases. Neither of those studies investigated the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) under enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS). We aim to describe the risk of VTE and estimate the cost...... of preventing one case of VTE by PT under ERAS. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of 2230 patients undergoing elective surgery for colon cancer Stage I-III in the Capital Region of Denmark, 1 June 2008 to 31 December 2013. Patients who were discharged on postoperative day 28 or later, died during admission...

  12. Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

    2011-12-01

    The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

  13. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  14. The critical catastrophe revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

  15. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  16. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  17. Quantum catastrophe of slow light

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

  18. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Emergency Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deaton JuanD

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  19. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Emergency Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan D. Deaton

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  20. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Providing Emergency Telecommunications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton

    2008-05-01

    Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  1. Fall incidence and associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation during various stages of recovery - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Noam; Gottlieb, Amihai; Siev-Ner, Itzhak; Plotnik, Meir

    2018-03-14

    The objective of this study was to estimate fall incidence and describe associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation (LLA) during various stages of recovery: the surgical ward, in-patient rehabilitation and return to community life. A systematic search of relevant English language articles was performed using PubMed and EMBASE. Out of 310 initial "hits," six retrospective cohort studies, one prospective cohort study and eleven cross-sectional studies from which fall incidence and risk factors could be extracted, were selected for critical review. Fall incidence and associated risk factors were extracted and analyzed in the context of various clinical stages of recovery after amputation. The studies were evaluated for quality using the "Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies." Results showed that during all stages of recovery, people with a LLA are at increased risk of falling compared with able-bodied individuals, as well as other clinical populations. Each stage of recovery is associated with different fall risk factors. The current review is limited mainly by the paucity of studies on the topic. Specialised care focusing on the most relevant risk factors for each stage of recovery may enhance fall prevention during post-fall recovery. Implications for rehabilitation •  People with a lower limb amputation are at a high risk of falling in all stages of their clinical course.      •  Health professionals should be aware that people with a lower limb amputation in the first 4 years ofamputation or with four or more health-related problems are at an increased risk.      •  Health professionals should also be aware that increased gait variability, excess confidence in balance andwalking abilities and less cautious stair walking, impose an elevated risk of falling and should focus theirefforts in reducing these factors.

  2. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  3. Status Update on the NCRP Scientific Committee SC 5-1 Report: Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Incidents - 13450

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    2013-01-01

    In August 2008, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its final Protective Action Guide (PAG) for radiological dispersal device (RDD) and improvised nuclear device (IND) incidents. This document specifies protective actions for public health during the early and intermediate phases and cleanup guidance for the late phase of RDD or IND incidents, and it discusses approaches to implementing the necessary actions. However, while the PAG provides specific guidance for the early and intermediate phases, it prescribes no equivalent guidance for the late-phase cleanup actions. Instead, the PAG offers a general description of a complex process using a site-specific optimization approach. This approach does not predetermine cleanup levels but approaches the problem from the factors that would bear on the final agreed-on cleanup levels. Based on this approach, the decision-making process involves multifaceted considerations including public health, the environment, and the economy, as well as socio-political factors. In an effort to fully define the process and approach to be used in optimizing late-phase recovery and site restoration following an RDD or IND incident, DHS has tasked the NCRP with preparing a comprehensive report addressing all aspects of the optimization process. Preparation of the NCRP report is a three-year (2010-2013) project assigned to a scientific committee, the Scientific Committee (SC) 5-1; the report was initially titled, Approach to Optimizing Decision Making for Late- Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Terrorism Incidents. Members of SC 5-1 represent a broad range of expertise, including homeland security, health physics, risk and decision analysis, economics, environmental remediation and radioactive waste management, and communication. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and guided by a recent process led by the White House through a Principal Level Exercise (PLE), the optimization approach has since

  4. Status Update on the NCRP Scientific Committee SC 5-1 Report: Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Incidents - 13450

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, S.Y. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    In August 2008, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its final Protective Action Guide (PAG) for radiological dispersal device (RDD) and improvised nuclear device (IND) incidents. This document specifies protective actions for public health during the early and intermediate phases and cleanup guidance for the late phase of RDD or IND incidents, and it discusses approaches to implementing the necessary actions. However, while the PAG provides specific guidance for the early and intermediate phases, it prescribes no equivalent guidance for the late-phase cleanup actions. Instead, the PAG offers a general description of a complex process using a site-specific optimization approach. This approach does not predetermine cleanup levels but approaches the problem from the factors that would bear on the final agreed-on cleanup levels. Based on this approach, the decision-making process involves multifaceted considerations including public health, the environment, and the economy, as well as socio-political factors. In an effort to fully define the process and approach to be used in optimizing late-phase recovery and site restoration following an RDD or IND incident, DHS has tasked the NCRP with preparing a comprehensive report addressing all aspects of the optimization process. Preparation of the NCRP report is a three-year (2010-2013) project assigned to a scientific committee, the Scientific Committee (SC) 5-1; the report was initially titled, Approach to Optimizing Decision Making for Late- Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Terrorism Incidents. Members of SC 5-1 represent a broad range of expertise, including homeland security, health physics, risk and decision analysis, economics, environmental remediation and radioactive waste management, and communication. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and guided by a recent process led by the White House through a Principal Level Exercise (PLE), the optimization approach has since

  5. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  6. Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

  7. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-10-01

    To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

  9. Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  11. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A.; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T.; Dettori, Joseph R.

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport. PMID:27781193

  12. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T; Dettori, Joseph R

    2016-11-01

    Study Design  Systematic review. Objectives  To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods  Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results  Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby ( n  = 10), American football ( n  = 3), and Irish hurling ( n  = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion  CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport.

  13. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  14. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  15. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatovich, V.K.

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  16. Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

    1986-01-01

    This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

  17. Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

    2010-02-01

    On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

  18. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

    1978-08-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

  19. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  20. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  1. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

  2. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-04-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  3. Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  4. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  5. Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

  6. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  7. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  8. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  9. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  10. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  11. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  12. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  13. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  14. Lessons from Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    recent, post-9/11 article, a team led by Slovic explores the nature of humans’ automatic, nearly subconscious , “experiential system” as it relates to...including bias based on fear that they carried contamination with them on their bodies or cars.121

  15. Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

    2015-05-14

    In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

  16. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  17. Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

  18. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  19. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  20. Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera, Brenda López

    2006-01-01

    After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

  1. PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serghei Margulescu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

  2. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  3. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  4. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  5. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  6. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  7. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2004-01-01

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  8. [Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, C Francisco Javier

    2012-01-01

    A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

  9. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  10. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  11. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  12. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

    2016-10-01

    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  14. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

    2015-05-01

    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  15. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  16. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  18. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  19. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  20. Business continuity in blood services: two case studies from events with potentially catastrophic effect on the national provision of blood components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, S J; Rackham, R A; Penny, S; Lawson, J R; Walsh, R J; Ismay, S L

    2015-02-01

    NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) and the Australian Red Cross Blood Service (ARCBS) are national blood establishments providing blood components to England and North Wales, and Australia, respectively. In 2012, both services experienced potentially catastrophic challenges to key assets. NHSBT suffered a flood that closed the largest blood-manufacturing centre in Europe, whilst ARCBS experienced the failure of a data centre network switch that rendered the national blood management system inaccessible for 42 h. This paper describes both crisis events, including the immediate actions, recovery procedures and lessons learned. Both incidents triggered emergency response plans. These included hospital reprovisioning and recovery from the incident. Once normal services had been restored, both events were subjected to root cause analysis (RCA) and production of 'lessons learned' reports. In both scenarios, the key enablers of rapid recovery were established emergency plans, clear leadership and the support of a flexible workforce. Product issues to hospitals were unaffected, and there were no abnormal trends in hospital complaints. RCA identified the importance of risk mitigations that require co-operation with external organizations. Reviews of both events identified opportunities to enhance business resilience through prior identification of external risks and improvements to contingency plans, for example by implementing mass messaging to staff and other stakeholders. Blood establishment emergency plans tend to focus on responding to mass casualty events. However, consolidation of manufacturing to fewer sites combined with a reliance on national IT systems increases the impact of loss of function. Blood services should develop business continuity plans which include prevention of such losses, and the maintenance of services and disaster recovery. © 2014 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  1. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    up to the present time. Available information should be presented in a form suitable for perception by wide public. Different categories of population (children, workers of various professional groups, pensioners) need practical consultations and recommendations on how to provide safe life conditions. For almost 15 years passed after the Chernobyl catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. Moreover, there is a tendency for understatement of the catastrophe consequences, bringing it down to the ordinary NPP incident. At the same time the radioecological, medico-biological, socio-psychological, economic and other Chernobyl consequences show that the problems born by the Chernobyl catastrophe on April 26, 1986 will remain actual for long. The unique situation as a result of the Chernobyl NPP accident must be used completely for improving the knowledge about the possible consequences of the similar catastrophes, for investigation and accumulation of experience of practical realisation of protection measures complex under the conditions of large-scale radioactive contamination of the territory. It creates good prerequisites for effective and mutually beneficial international co-operation on overcoming of the catastrophe consequences

  2. Technological catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, V.

    2000-01-01

    The mankind energy demands are expected to be in 2050 more than twice of present level. But a World Conference on Environment in Kyoto is expressed the concern about the releases of greenhouses gases which could cause the climate changes. Accordingly the contamination of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is becoming of an urgent problem of our civilisation. Obviously a nuclear energy is assumed to be a main aid of solving such energy problem. But everybody knows the society is in a conflict situation- there is a powerful movement of 'green' forces against the nuclear power. Some people are trying firmly to stop or even to ban the development of the nuclear power in some countries. An analysis of the ground causes of such social phenomenon as anti-nuclear movement can assist us in its management and future actions for development of nuclear power. It is possible to distinguish economical, social, scientific roots of nuclear opposition. Role of mass media in development of the public anti-nuclear mood is very important. Nobody doubts that a public acceptance is a key point for future nuclear energy. Recent anti-nuclear problems can be solved by calm confident interaction with public, by careful substitution of old troublesome image of the nuclear power on view of modem controllable technology with high level of safety and protection of environment. In such actions very important to convince of public that the such modem requirements of the nuclear safety as - no large radioactive release, no emergency evacuation, no permanent relocation of population, no restrictions on food consumption- are implemented in the correspondent design decisions based on defence-in-depth concept. And everybody have to know that in the case of any operational incident all consequences of disturbances will be mitigated and real risks will be scornful small. Problem of the plants decommissioning is a very serious. But it has to be solved on the base of optimisation of money expenses and

  3. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  4. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  5. Homeland Security is Hometown Security: Comparison and Case Studies of Vertically Synchronized Catastrophe Response Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo , and Katrina resonate as failures where there was little, if any, federal response in the initial hours, which left the depleted...was also initiated by several large scale incidents, including the Three Mile Island Disaster and Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew.67 This evolved at the...persist during large scale disasters, as was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy. Catastrophe response planning at the

  6. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arecchi, F.T.

    1992-01-01

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  7. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  8. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  9. Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

    2012-07-01

    Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  12. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  13. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  14. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-08

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  16. Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

  17. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  18. Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-01

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  19. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-09-01

    There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  20. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  1. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  2. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  3. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  4. Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

    2015-12-01

    Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  6. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  7. Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

  8. Traffic incident management resource management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The necessity of a multi-disciplinary approach involving law enforcement, fire and rescue, transportation, towing and recovery, and others has been well-recognized and integrated into incident management operations. This same multidisciplinar...

  9. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident; Recuperacion de hojuelas de Iridio-192 provenientes de una fuente radiactivas de uso industrial despues de un incidente radiologico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cruz, W.H.; Zapata, L.A., E-mail: wcruz@ipen.gob.pe, E-mail: lzapata@ipen.gob.pe [Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear (GRRA/IPEN), Lima (Peru). Division de Gestion de Residuos Radiactivos

    2013-07-01

    The Iridium-192 ({sup 192}Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m{sup 2}, some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  10. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  11. Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

    2017-02-01

    Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2012-12-01

    Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

  13. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

    1979-01-01

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  14. Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

    1982-01-01

    A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

  15. Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

    2013-01-01

    This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

  16. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  17. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  18. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.

    2008-01-01

    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

  19. Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  20. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  1. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  2. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  3. Does User Fee Removal Policy Provide Financial Protection from Catastrophic Health Care Payments? Evidence from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Masiye

    Full Text Available Out-of-pocket payments in health care have been shown to impose significant burden on households in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to constrained access to health care and impoverishment. In an effort to reduce the financial burden imposed on households by user fees, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have abolished user fees in the health sector. Zambia is one of few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to abolish user fees in primary health care facilities with a view to alleviating financial burden of out-of-pocket payments among the poor. The main aim of this paper was to examine the extent and patterns of financial protection from fees following the decision to abolish user fees in public primary health facilities.Our analysis is based on a nationally representative health expenditure and utilization survey conducted in 2014. We calculated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure based on households' out-of-pocket payments during a visit as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure. We further show the intensity of the problem of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE experienced by households.Our analysis show that following the removal of user fees, a majority of patients who visited public health facilities benefitted from free care at the point of use. Further, seeking care at public primary health facilities is associated with a reduced likelihood of incurring CHE after controlling for economic wellbeing and other covariates. However, 10% of households are shown to suffer financial catastrophe as a result of out-of-pocket payments. Further, there is considerable inequality in the incidence of CHE whereby the poorest expenditure quintile experienced a much higher incidence.Despite the removal of user fees at primary health care level, CHE is high among the poorest sections of the population. This study also shows that cost of transportation is mainly responsible for limiting the protective effectiveness of

  4. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  5. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  6. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  7. Clinically meaningful scores on pain catastrophizing before and after multidisciplinary rehabilitation: a prospective study of individuals with subacute pain after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

    2014-03-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as a significant risk factor for problematic recovery after musculoskeletal injury. As such, there has been an increased focus on interventions that target patients' levels of catastrophizing. However, it is not presently clear how clinicians might best interpret scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment. Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide preliminary guidelines for the clinical interpretation of scores on pain catastrophizing among individuals with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury. A sample of 166 occupationally disabled individuals with subacute pain due to a whiplash injury participated in this study. Participants completed a 7-week standardized multidisciplinary rehabilitation program aimed at fostering functional recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) upon program commencement and completion. One year later, participants indicated their pain severity and involvement in employment activities. Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine absolute pretreatment and posttreatment and percent change scores on the PCS that were best associated with clinically important levels of pain and employment status at the follow-up. An absolute pretreatment PCS score of 24 best identified patients according to follow-up clinical outcomes. Posttreatment PCS scores of 14 and 15 best identified patients with high follow-up pain intensity ratings and those who did not return to work, respectively. PCS reductions of approximately 38% to 44% were best associated with return to work and low pain intensity ratings at follow-up. The results indicate scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment that are clinically meaningful. These results may serve as preliminary guidelines to assess the clinical significance of interventions targeting pain catastrophizing in patients with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury.

  8. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  9. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

  10. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  11. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  12. Radiation protection aspects of the incident recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tibor, Bujtas; Arpad, Nenyei

    2006-01-01

    On the 10. April 2003 a serious accident occurred at PAKS nuclear power plant. The cleaning of fuel assemblies unloaded from the reactor of unit 2 was commencing under water in the fuel-cleaning equipment in the maintenance shaft number 1. There was no chain reaction in the cleaning tank but the fission products, accumulated in the previous operational time still produced a significant heat. Due to the inadequate cooling of the cleaning tank the assemblies overheated within a few hours. After opening the lid of the tank the entering cold water caused thermal shock and significant damage to the fuel assemblies. cladding of the fuel elements opened up and the uranium dioxide pellets got also damaged. The removal of the damaged fuel assemblies and the released debris must be managed. There are technical difficulties and radiation protection problems to reduce the radiation exposure of the workers as well as the minimization of the radioactive materials released into the environment. The description of the situation and the different actions are detailed. (N.C.)

  13. Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

    2008-11-30

    In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

  14. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  15. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  16. The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

    2016-01-01

    The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

  17. Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

    2010-01-01

    The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

  18. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  19. Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

    2012-05-01

    The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  20. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  1. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  2. Use of G-CSF to hasten neutrophil recovery after auto-SCT for AML is not associated with increased relapse incidence: a report from the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the EBMT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerw, T; Labopin, M; Gorin, N-C; Giebel, S; Blaise, D; Dumas, P-Y; Foa, R; Attal, M; Schaap, N; Michallet, M; Bonmati, C; Veelken, H; Mohty, M

    2014-07-01

    Application of G-CSF in AML is controversial as leukemic blasts may express receptors interacting with the cytokine, which may stimulate leukemia growth. We retrospectively analyzed the impact of G-CSF use to accelerate neutrophil recovery after auto-SCT on outcome. Adults with AML in first CR autografted between 1994 and 2010 were included. Nine hundred and seventy two patients were treated with G-CSF after auto-SCT whereas 1121 were not. BM and PB were used as a source of stem cells in 454 (22%) and 1639 (78%) cases, respectively. The incidence of relapse at 5 years in the BM-auto-SCT group was 38% for patients receiving post-transplant G-CSF and 43% for those not treated with G-CSF, P=0.46. In the PB-auto-SCT cohort, respective probabilities were 48% and 49%, P=0.49. No impact of the use of G-CSF could be demonstrated with respect to the probability of leukemia-free survival: in the BM-auto-SCT group, 51% for G-CSF(+) and 48% for G-CSF(-), P=0.73; in PB-auto-SCT group, 42% for G-CSF(+) and 43% for G-CSF(-), P=0.83. Although G-CSF administration significantly shortened the neutropenic phase, no beneficial effect was observed with regard to non-relapse mortality. In patients with AML, the use of G-CSF after auto-SCT is not associated with increased risk of relapse irrespective of the source of stem cells used.

  3. Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

    2012-02-01

    Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

  4. Wheelchair incidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drongelen AW van; Roszek B; Hilbers-Modderman ESM; Kallewaard M; Wassenaar C; LGM

    2002-01-01

    This RIVM study was performed to gain insight into wheelchair-related incidents with powered and manual wheelchairs reported to the USA FDA, the British MDA and the Dutch Center for Quality and Usability Research of Technical Aids (KBOH). The data in the databases do not indicate that incidents with

  5. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  6. Assessing the economic burden of illness for tuberculosis patients in Benin: determinants and consequences of catastrophic health expenditures and inequities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laokri, Samia; Dramaix-Wilmet, Michèle; Kassa, Ferdinand; Anagonou, Séverin; Dujardin, Bruno

    2014-10-01

    To inform policy-making, we measured the risk, causes and consequences of catastrophic expenditures for tuberculosis and investigated potential inequities. Between August 2008 and February 2009, a cross-sectional study was conducted among all (245) smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of six health districts from southern Benin. A standardised survey questionnaire covered the period of time elapsing from onset of tuberculosis symptoms to completion of treatment. Total direct cost exceeding the conventional 10% threshold of annual income was defined as catastrophic and used as principal outcome in a multivariable logistic regression. A sensitivity analysis was performed while varying the thresholds. A pure gradient of direct costs of tuberculosis in relation to income was observed. Incidence (78.1%) and intensity (14.8%) of catastrophic expenditure were high; varying thresholds was insensitive to the intensity. Incurring catastrophic expenditure was independently associated with lower- and middle-income quintiles (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 36.2, 95% CI [12.3-106.3] and aOR = 6.4 [2.8-14.6]), adverse pre-diagnosis stage (aOR = 5.4 [2.2-13.3]) and less education (aOR = 4.1[1.9-8.7]). Households incurred important days lost due to TB, indebtedness (37.1%), dissaving (51.0%) and other coping strategies (52.7%). Catastrophic direct costs and substantial indirect and coping costs may persist under the 'free' tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment strategy, as well as inequities in financial hardship. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Protecting patients with cardiovascular diseases from catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment by health finance reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jing; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan; Fan, Yancun; McNeil, Edward

    2015-12-01

    To compare the incidences of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment, the risk protection offered by two health financial reforms and to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014 in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Patients with CVDs aged over 18 years residing in the sample areas for at least one year were eligible. The definitions of CHE and impoverishment recommended by WHO were adopted. The protection of CHE and impoverishment was compared between the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) alone and NCMS plus National Essential Medicines Scheme (NEMS) using the percentage change of incidences for CHE and impoverishment. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment. The incidences of CHE and impoverishment under NCMS plus NEMS were 11.26% and 3.30%, respectively, which were lower than those under NCMS alone. The rates of protection were higher among households with patients with CVDs covered by NCMS plus NEMS (25.68% and 34.65%, respectively). NCMS plus NEMS could protect the poor households more from CHE but not impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS protected more than one-fourth of households from CHE and more than one-third from impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS was more effective at protecting households with patients with CVDs from CHE and impoverishment than NCMS alone. An integration of NCMS with NEMS should be expanded. However, further strategies to minimise catastrophic health expenditure after this health finance reform are still needed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

    2003-08-01

    Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

  9. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  10. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

    1992-07-01

    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  11. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  12. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  13. Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

  14. Disaster Debris Recovery Database - Recovery

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The US EPA Disaster Debris Recovery Database (DDRD) promotes the proper recovery, recycling, and disposal of disaster debris for emergency responders at the federal,...

  15. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  16. Anomalous left coronary artery from the pulmonary artery with a large patent ductus arteriosus: aversion of a catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Sanjeev; Delius, Ralph E; Pettersen, Michael D

    2013-01-01

    We present an infant who had an anomalous left coronary artery arising from the pulmonary artery (ALCAPA) and a large patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), who was diagnosed before a potentially catastrophic closure of PDA. In the presence of normal left ventricular function and the absence of coronary artery collaterals, it is difficult to diagnose ALCAPA. A disproportionate degree of left ventricular dilation and severity of mitral valve regurgitation relative to the degree of PDA shunt, and echogenic papillary muscles on an echocardiogram should raise a suspicion of coronary artery anomalies. The infant underwent surgical ligation of PDA with translocation of coronary arteries and had an uneventful recovery. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. The Chernobyl Catastrophe. Consequences on Human Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yablokov, A.; Labunska, I.; Blokov, I. (eds.)

    2006-04-15

    of estimates of excess mortality resulting from the Chernobyl accident spans an extremely wide range depending upon precisely what is taken into account. The most recent epidemiological evidence, published under the auspices of the Russian Academy of Sciences, suggests that the scale of the problems could be very much greater than predicted by studies published to date. For example, the 2005 IAEA report predicted that 4000 additional deaths would result from the Chernobyl accident. The most recently published figures indicate that in Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine alone the accident resulted in an estimated 200,000 additional deaths between 1990 and 2004. Overall, the available data reveal a considerable range in estimated excess mortalities resulting from the Chernobyl accident, serving to underline the huge uncertainties attached to knowledge of the full impacts of the Chernobyl accident. This report includes some data, which have not been published before in the international arena. In combination with the extensive body of literature which has been published to date, these data indicate that 'official' figures (e.g. the IAEA 2005 evaluation) for morbidity (incidence of disease) and death arising as a direct result of the radioactive contamination released from Chernobyl may grossly underestimate both the local and international impact of the incident. Four population groups appear to have experienced the most severe health effects: (1) accident clean-up workers, or 'liquidators', including civilian and the military personnel drafted to carry out clean-up activities and construct the protective cover for the reactor; (2) evacuees from dangerously contaminated territories inside the 30-km zone around the power plant; (3) residents of the less (but still dangerously) contaminated territories; and (4) children born into the families from all of the above three groups.

  18. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.

    1996-01-01

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  19. Incidents analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, P

    1997-12-31

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs.

  20. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  1. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  2. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  3. The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

  4. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

  5. The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

  6. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  7. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  8. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

    2008-05-01

    The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

  10. Combined social and private health insurance versus catastrophic out of pocket payments for private hospital care in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorakis, Nikolaos; Floros, Christos; Tsangari, Haritini; Tsoukatos, Evangelos

    2017-01-03

    The high level of out of pocket (OOP) payments constitutes a major concern for Greece and several other European and OECD countries as a result of the significant down turning of their public health finances due to the 2008 financial crisis. The basic objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the effect of combining social health insurance (SHI) and private health insurance (PHI) on OOP payments. Further, this study examines the catastrophic impact of OOP payments on insured's welfare using the incidence and intensity methodological approach of measuring catastrophic health care expenditures. Conducting a cross-sectional survey in Greece in 2013, we find that the combination of SHI-PHI has a strong negative influence on insured OOP payments for inpatient health care in private hospitals. Furthermore, our results indicate that SHI coverage is not sufficient by itself to manage with this issue. Moreover, we find that poor people present a greater tendency to incur catastrophic OOP expenditures for hospital health care in private providers. Drawing evidence from Greece, a country with huge fiscal problems that has suffered the consequences of the economic crisis more than any other, could be a starting point for policymakers to consider the perspective of SHI-PHI co-operation against OOP payments more seriously.

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  12. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  13. Catastrophic dechanneling resonance study of In0.1Ga0.9As/GaAs multilayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.M.; Pathak, A.P.

    1998-10-01

    Catastrophic Dechanneling Resonance (CDR) has bee used for probing important properties of Strained Layer Superlattices (SLS). We have undertaken a systematic study on strain and strain revealing mechanisms in technologically important SLS using ion channeling methods. Here we present the theoretical calculations on CDR for a 4 He ion beam along the (110) plane in In 0.1 Ga 0.9 As/GaAs superlattice using Moliere potential. CDR is found to have occurred at 1.2 MeV. Also the most regular feature of CDR, the Incident Angle Asymmetry has been observed. (author)

  14. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  15. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  16. slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.

    2007-01-01

    The size of the basin of attraction in ecosystems with alternative stable states is often referred to as "ecological resilience." Ecosystems with a low ecological resilience may easily be tipped into an alternative basin of attraction by a stochastic event. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to

  17. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  18. Catastrophic biaxial proximal sesamoid bone fractures in UK Thoroughbred races (1999-2004): horse characteristics and racing history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, M; Parkin, T D H; Singer, E R

    2010-07-01

    Catastrophic biaxial proximal sesamoid bone fractures (PSBF) have not yet been described in detail in the UK racing population. To determine the incidence and relative risk (RR) of PSBF in different types of racing in the UK; and to describe horse-level characteristics and racing histories of horses sustaining these injuries. Distal limbs were collected from all racehorses suffering catastrophic fractures during racing at all 59 racecourses in the UK, in a prospective study from February 1999 to December 2004. Post mortem investigation identified the anatomical location and type of fracture. Horse, racing history, race and racecourse details were obtained. Characteristics of the horses that sustained PSBF were described. The incidence and RR of PSBF in the different types of racing in the UK were calculated. Thirty-one horses suffered PSBF during the study period. The incidence of PSBF in all types of race was 0.63 per 10,000 starts (31/494,744). The incidence was highest in flat races on all weather surfaces (1.63 per 10,000 starts: 12/73,467; RR = 4.4 when compared to turf flat racing). Affected horses had an average age of 5.6 years and had started a mean of 28 races at the time of fracture. There is a strong association between type of racing surface and PSBF. Horses competing in flat races on all weather surfaces have an increased risk of PSBF. These fractures appear to happen in experienced horses with several starts, with few fractures occurring within the first season of racing. Further research should focus on identification of underlying pathology of these fractures. Epidemiological studies aimed at the identification of risk factors for PSBF in the UK racing population would require a large number of cases acquired over many years given the relatively low incidence of PSBF.

  19. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  20. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  1. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  2. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

    1986-03-01

    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  3. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  4. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  5. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  6. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  7. Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

  8. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  9. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  10. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  11. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robeau, D.

    2001-01-01

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  12. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

  13. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  14. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  15. Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

    2015-01-01

    Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

  16. Recovery Spirituality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kurtz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A. and other secular, spiritual, and religious frameworks of long-term addiction recovery. The present paper explores the varieties of spiritual experience within A.A., with particular reference to the growth of a wing of recovery spirituality promoted within A.A. It is suggested that the essence of secular spirituality is reflected in the experience of beyond (horizontal and vertical transcendence and between (connection and mutuality and in six facets of spirituality (Release, Gratitude, Humility, Tolerance, Forgiveness, and a Sense of Being-at-home shared across religious, spiritual, and secular pathways of addiction recovery. The growing varieties of A.A. spirituality (spanning the “Christianizers” and “Seculizers” reflect A.A.’s adaptation to the larger diversification of religious experience and the growing secularization of spirituality across the cultural contexts within which A.A. is nested.

  17. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  18. Implementation of the National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) in the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center(FRMAC) - Emergency Phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NSTec Environmental Restoration

    2007-01-01

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive HSPD-5 requires all federal departments and agencies to adopt a National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) and use it in their individual domestic incident management and emergency prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation programs and activities, as well as in support of those actions taken to assist state and local entities. This system provides a consistent nationwide template to enable federal, state, local, and tribal governments, private-sector, and nongovernmental organizations to work together effectively and efficiently to prepare for, prevent, respond to, and recover from domestic incidents, regardless of cause, size, or complexity, including acts of catastrophic terrorism. This document identifies the operational concepts of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center's (FRMAC) implementation of the NIMS/ICS response structure under the National Response Plan (NRP). The construct identified here defines the basic response template to be tailored to the incident-specific response requirements. FRMAC's mission to facilitate interagency environmental data management, monitoring, sampling, analysis, and assessment and link this information to the planning and decision staff clearly places the FRMAC in the Planning Section. FRMAC is not a mitigating resource for radiological contamination but is present to conduct radiological impact assessment for public dose avoidance. Field monitoring is a fact-finding mission to support this effort directly. Decisions based on the assessed data will drive public protection and operational requirements. This organizational structure under NIMS is focused by the mission responsibilities and interface requirements following the premise to provide emergency responders with a flexible yet standardized structure for incident response activities. The coordination responsibilities outlined in the NRP are based on the NIMS

  19. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  20. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  1. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  2. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  3. Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

  4. A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

    2008-07-01

    Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

  5. Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

    1977-06-01

    A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

  6. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  7. The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

    2018-05-01

    When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. THE CONSTITUTIONALITY REVIEW OF TRIBUTARY MATRIX RULE INCIDENCE: THE STJ UNDERSTANDING ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF UNCONSTITUTIONALITY DECLARED BY THE SUPREME COURT AND THE (IM)POSSIBILITY TO REOPENING THE TIME FOR RECOVERY TAX OVERPAYMENT

    OpenAIRE

    ANTONIO AUGUSTO BONA ALVES

    2014-01-01

    O presente trabalho de dissertação tem como objetivo a compreensão do Controle Abstrato e Concentrado de Constitucionalidade, exercido pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal via ADI e ADC, sobre a Regra Matriz de Incidência Tributária, enquanto norma geral e abstrata, bem como os efeitos deste tipo de tutela constitucional sobre as relações jurídico-tributárias fundadas na norma tributária objeto de controle. Mais especificamente, tratar-se-á da influência das decisões de mérito que ...

  9. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-03-06

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  10. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  11. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  12. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  13. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  14. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

    2015-11-01

    Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  15. The Dynamics of Catastrophic and Impoverishing Health Spending in Indonesia: How Well Does the Indonesian Health Care Financing System Perform?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aji, Budi; Mohammed, Shafiu; Haque, Md Aminul; Allegri, Manuela De

    2017-09-01

    Our study examines the incidence and intensity of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Indonesia. A panel data set was used from 4 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Surveys 1993, 1997, 2000, and 2007. Catastrophic health expenditure was measured by calculating the ratio of out-of-pocket payments to household income. Then, we calculated poverty indicators as a measure of impoverishing spending in the health care financing system. Head count, overshoot, and mean positive overshoot for each given threshold in 2000 were lower than other surveyed periods; otherwise, fraction headcount in 2007 of households were the higher. Between 1993 and 2007, the percentage of households in poverty decreased, both in gross and net of health payments. However, in each year, the percentages of households in poverty using net health payments were higher than the gross. The estimates of poverty gap, normalized poverty gap, and normalized mean positive gap decreased across the survey periods. The health care financing system performance has shown positive evidence for financial protection offerings. A sound relationship between improvements of health care financing performance and the existing health reform demonstrated a mutual reinforcement, which should be maintained to promote equity and fairness in health care financing in Indonesia.

  16. ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

    2013-11-21

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  18. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  19. Correlated network of networks enhances robustness against catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Byungjoon; Zheng, Muhua

    2018-01-01

    Networks in nature rarely function in isolation but instead interact with one another with a form of a network of networks (NoN). A network of networks with interdependency between distinct networks contains instability of abrupt collapse related to the global rule of activation. As a remedy of the collapse instability, here we investigate a model of correlated NoN. We find that the collapse instability can be removed when hubs provide the majority of interconnections and interconnections are convergent between hubs. Thus, our study identifies a stable structure of correlated NoN against catastrophic failures. Our result further suggests a plausible way to enhance network robustness by manipulating connection patterns, along with other methods such as controlling the state of node based on a local rule.

  20. Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzvetanov, G.

    2009-01-01

    A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

  1. Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1981-03-21

    The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

  2. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  3. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  4. From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iltis, H H

    1983-11-25

    An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

  5. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  6. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  7. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (Ronald Asherson syndrome) and obstetric pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makatsariya, Alexander D; Khizroeva, Jamilya; Bitsadze, Viktoriya O

    2018-05-24

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an uncommon, often fatal, variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that results in a widespread coagulopathy and high titres of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) and affects predominantly small vessels supplying organs with the development of multiorgan failure. It remains unclear why some patients develop the typical clinical picture of APS (thrombosis of large vessels), whereas others show the development of progressive microthrombosis, which the authors called "thrombotic storm" and multiple organ failure, that is, CAPS. Since 2001-2016, we discovered 17 patients with CAPS development. CAPS is life-threatening condition, but optimal treatment for CAPS is not developed yet and the mortality rate is as high as 30%-40%.

  9. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  10. Impact of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act on nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberte, L; Mor, V; Berg, K; Intrator, O; Calore, K; Hiris, J

    1997-01-01

    The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act (MCCA) of 1988 altered eligibility and coverage for skilled nursing facility (SNF) care and changed Medicaid eligibility rules for nursing-home residents. Detailed data on the residents of a for-profit nursing-home chain and Medicare claims for a 1 percent sample of beneficiaries were used to examine the impact of the MCCA on nursing homes. The case mix of nursing-home admissions was scrutinized, specifically for length of stay, discharge disposition, rate of hospitalization, and changes in payer source. Findings revealed that, although the proportion of Medicare-financed nursing-home care increased, as did the case-mix severity of residents during the MCCA period, there was no corollary reduction in hospital use by nursing-home residents.

  11. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  12. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  13. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  14. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  15. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  16. Risk assessment of eye diseases development in Chernobyl clean-up workers in remote period after the catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedirko, P.A.; Buzunov, V.A.

    2003-01-01

    We conducted the study aiming at assessment of ophthalmological pathology formation risk in remote period after the Chernobyl catastrophe among participants of the accident consequences liquidation depending on an irradiation dose, age and other factors. Considerable increase of level of incidence and prevalence of eye diseases, deformation of ophthalmological pathology structure with an increase in ratio of diseases of retina and lens was noticed in the group of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences liquidators. Only 8.8% of the examined people were healthy ones. Tendency was noticed towards decrease in number of healthy individuals during primary examination and during observation in dynamics: during the third periodical examination (with interval of 2 years) eyes remained to be healthy only in 0.61% of the patients

  17. Estimation of traffic recovery time for different flow regimes on freeways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    This study attempts to estimate post-incident traffic recovery time along a freeway using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. It has been found that there is a linear relationship between post-incident traffic recovery time, and incident time and traf...

  18. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  19. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  20. Agreement between the Government of the French Republic and the Swiss Federal Council on Mutual Assistance in case of a catastrophe or a serious accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This agreement, signed on 14 January 1987, was formally approved in France by Act No. 88-1255 of 30 December 1988 (published in the Journal Officiel de la Republique Francaise of 4 January 1989). The agreement was published by Decree No. 89-207 of 7 April 1989. It lays down a comprehensive legal framework for mutual emergency assistance. It provides, in particular, that rescue teams will be sent by the Parties in all cases of catastrophe and serious accidents, including nuclear incidents. (NEA) [fr

  1. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  2. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

  3. Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert R Edwards

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

  4. Predictors of incident depression after hip fracture surgery.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Banerjee, S.; Horan, M.; Baldwin, R.; Pendleton, N.; Proctor, R.; Tarrier, N.; Woodward, Y.; Burns, A.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Depression after hip fracture surgery is prevalent and associated with increased mortality rates and impaired functional recovery. The incidence of new-onset depressive symptoms in patients initially not depressed after hip fracture surgery and their relationship with functional recovery

  5. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  6. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  7. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yue Pan; Ai-wu Li; Yun-song Qi [Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao (China). College of Civil Engineering

    2009-01-15

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This graph contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions. 11 refs., 8 figs.

  8. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

  10. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  11. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  12. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Catastrophic cooling and cessation of heating in the solar corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, H.; Bingert, S.; Kamio, S.

    2012-01-01

    Context. Condensations in the more than 106 K hot corona of the Sun are commonly observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). While their contribution to the total solar EUV radiation is still a matter of debate, these condensations certainly provide a valuable tool for studying the dynamic response of the corona to the heating processes. Aims: We investigate different distributions of energy input in time and space to investigate which process is most relevant for understanding these coronal condensations. Methods: For a comparison to observations we synthesize EUV emission from a time-dependent, one-dimensional model for coronal loops, where we employ two heating scenarios: simply shutting down the heating and a model where the heating is very concentrated at the loop footpoints, while keeping the total heat input constant. Results: The heating off/on model does not lead to significant EUV count rates that one observes with SDO/AIA. In contrast, the concentration of the heating near the footpoints leads to thermal non-equilibrium near the loop top resulting in the well-known catastrophic cooling. This process gives a good match to observations of coronal condensations. Conclusions: This shows that the corona needs a steady supply of energy to support the coronal plasma, even during coronal condensations. Otherwise the corona would drain very fast, too fast to even form a condensation. Movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  14. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-05-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  15. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ame, J.Ch.; Fouquerel, E.; Dantzer, F.; De Murcia, G.; Schreiber, V. [IREBS-FRE3211 du CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg, ESBS, Bd Sebastien Brant, BP 10413, 67412 Illkirch Cedex (France); Gauthier, L.R.; Boussin, F.D. [Laboratoire de Radiopathologie/INSERM U967, CEA-DSV-IRCM, 92265 Fontenay aux Roses, Cedex 6 (France); Biard, D. [CEA-DSV-IRCM/INSERM U935, Institut A. Lwoff-CNRS, BP 8, 94801 Villejuif cedex (France)

    2009-07-01

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  16. Stabilization of Reversed Replication Forks by Telomerase Drives Telomere Catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalef, Pol; Kotsantis, Panagiotis; Borel, Valerie; Bellelli, Roberto; Panier, Stephanie; Boulton, Simon J

    2018-01-25

    Telomere maintenance critically depends on the distinct activities of telomerase, which adds telomeric repeats to solve the end replication problem, and RTEL1, which dismantles DNA secondary structures at telomeres to facilitate replisome progression. Here, we establish that reversed replication forks are a pathological substrate for telomerase and the source of telomere catastrophe in Rtel1 -/- cells. Inhibiting telomerase recruitment to telomeres, but not its activity, or blocking replication fork reversal through PARP1 inhibition or depleting UBC13 or ZRANB3 prevents the rapid accumulation of dysfunctional telomeres in RTEL1-deficient cells. In this context, we establish that telomerase binding to reversed replication forks inhibits telomere replication, which can be mimicked by preventing replication fork restart through depletion of RECQ1 or PARG. Our results lead us to propose that telomerase inappropriately binds to and inhibits restart of reversed replication forks within telomeres, which compromises replication and leads to critically short telomeres. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The effects of multiple anaesthetic episodes on equine recovery quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, J P; Simon, B T; Coleman, M; Martinez, E A; Lepiz, M A; Watts, A E

    2018-01-01

    Although rare, 70% of equine fatalities during recovery from general anaesthesia (GA) are due to catastrophic fractures from poor recovery quality. To determine the effect of repeated GA recovery on GA recovery quality. Experimental blinded trial. Eight adult horses underwent six GA events on sevoflurane for distal limb MRI examination over a 14-week period. Prior to GA recovery, xylazine was administered. Randomly ordered video-recorded GA recoveries were scored by three blinded board certified veterinary anaesthesiologists, unaware of patient identity or GA event number, for nine parameters using a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS) where 0 = worst and 100 = best. The number of attempts to stand, duration of lateral and sternal recumbency, total recovery duration and physiologic parameters during each GA event were recorded. Repeated measures ANOVA were used to detect differences. Agreement between observer VAS scores was determined via inter-rater reliability using an intraclass correlation. With GA recovery experience, VAS scores for balance and coordination, knuckling, and overall quality of recovery were improved and the duration of lateral recumbency was increased. There were no differences in total recovery duration, number of attempts to stand, physiologic parameters other than heart rate during GA, or VAS scores for activity in lateral recumbency, move to sternal, move to stand, or strength. Each GA event was relatively short and there was no surgical stimulation. The same results may not occur if there was surgical stimulation and pain during each GA event. Recovery from GA improves with multiple anaesthetic episodes in horses. Clinicians can advise clients that horses are likely to have better GA recovery on repeated GA recovery due to improved balance and coordination and reduced knuckling. Additionally, there is no change in anaesthetic morbidity with six repeated GA events over a 14-week period. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

  18. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  19. A case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: first report with advanced cardiac imaging using MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, A N; Anavekar, N S; Ernste, F C; Mankad, S V; Le, R J; Manocha, K K; Barsness, G W

    2015-10-01

    This present case pertains to a 48-year-old woman with a history of antiphospholipid syndrome, who presented with progressive fatigue, generalized weakness, and orthopnea acutely. She had a prior diagnosis of antiphospholipid syndrome with recurrent deep vein thromboses (DVTs) and repeated demonstration of lupus anticoagulants. She presented in cardiogenic shock with markedly elevated troponin and global myocardial dysfunction on echocardiography, and cardiac catheterization revealed minimal disease. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed, which revealed findings of perfusion defects and microvascular obstruction, consistent with the pathophysiology of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Diagnosis was made based on supportive imaging, including head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealing multifocal, acute strokes; microvascular thrombosis in the dermis; and subacute renal infarctions. The patient was anticoagulated with intravenous unfractionated heparin and received high-dose methylprednisolone, plasmapheresis, intravenous immunoglobulin, and one dose each of rituximab and cyclophosphamide. She convalesced with eventual myocardial recovery after a complicated course. The diagnosis of CAPS relies on the presence of (1) antiphospholipid antibodies and (2) involvement of multiple organs in a microangiopathic thrombotic process with a close temporal association. The myocardium is frequently affected, and heart failure, either as the presenting symptom or cause of death, is common. Despite echocardiographic evidence of myocardial dysfunction in such patients, MRIs of CAPS have not previously been reported. This case highlights the utility in assessing the involvement of the myocardium by the microangiopathic process with MRI. Because the diagnosis of CAPS requires involvement in multiple organ systems, cardiac MRI is likely an underused tool that not only reaffirms the pathophysiology of CAPS, but could also clue clinicians in to the

  20. Pathophysiology of repetitive head injury in sports. Prevention against catastrophic brain damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Tatsuro; Kawamata, Tatsuro; Katayama, Yoichi

    2008-01-01

    The most common head injury in sports is concussion and experiencing multiple concussions in a short period of time sometimes can cause severe brain damage. In this paper, we investigate severe brain damage due to repeated head injury in sports and discuss the pathophysiology of repeated sports injury. The majority of these severe cases are usually male adolescents or young adults that suffer a second head injury before they have recovered from the first head injury. All cases that could be confirmed by brain CT scan after the second injury revealed brain swelling associated with a thin subdural hematoma. We suggested that the existence of subdural hematoma is one of the major causes of brain swelling after repeated head injury in sports. Since repeated concussions occurring within a short period may have a risk for severe brain damage, the diagnosis for initial cerebral concussion should be done appropriately. To prevent catastrophic brain damage, the player who suffered from concussion should not engage in any sports before recovery. The american Academy of Neurology and Colorado Medical Society set a guideline to return to play after cerebral concussion. An international conference on concussion in sports was held at Prague in 2004. The summary and agreement of this meeting was published and the Sports Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) was introduced to treat sports-related concussion. In addition, a number of computerized cognitive assessment tests and test batteries have been developed to allow athletes to return to play. It is important that coaches, as well as players and trainers, understand the medical issues involved in concussion. (author)

  1. Act of 9 December 1983 approving an Agreement between the Governments of Belgium and France on mutual assistance in the event of catastrophes and serious accidents, signed in Paris on 21 April 1981

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This Agreement between Belgium and France lays down a comprehensive legal framework for mutual emergency assistance. It provides that rescue teams will be sent by the Parties in all cases of catastrophe and serious accidents, including nuclear incidents. The Agreement also contains provisions on administrative competences, on quick border crossings by the rescue teams as well as on their supervision. Finally, other provisions settle the question of the costs incurred by assistance, compensation of damage and exchange of information. (NEA) [fr

  2. Disaster Debris Recovery Database - Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA Region 5 Disaster Debris Recovery Database includes public datasets of over 6,000 composting facilities, demolition contractors, transfer stations, landfills and recycling facilities for construction and demolition materials, electronics, household hazardous waste, metals, tires, and vehicles in the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin.In this update, facilities in the 7 states that border the EPA Region 5 states were added to assist interstate disaster debris management. Also, the datasets for composters, construction and demolition recyclers, demolition contractors, and metals recyclers were verified and source information added for each record using these sources: AGC, Biocycle, BMRA, CDRA, ISRI, NDA, USCC, FEMA Debris Removal Contractor Registry, EPA Facility Registry System, and State and local listings.

  3. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFraia, G S

    2015-07-01

    Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents) occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions. To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents. Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events. Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident. Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  4. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GS DeFraia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions. Objective: To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents. Methods: Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events. Results: Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident. Conclusion: Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  5. Medical and radioecological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Western Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frenzel, Ch.; Llengfelder, E.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: The catastrophe at the unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian SSR which occurred on 26 April 1986, was the most serious accident in the history of nuclear industry and the civil use of nuclear energy until this time. Initial explosions destroyed the reactor completely. During about 10 days, large amounts of radioactive material were released to the western part of Soviet Union as well as to all European countries. 25 years later in March 2011, the next nuclear disaster at a level of INES 7 occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Site in Japan, where 4 reactor units were destroyed by explosions and nuclear melt down processes. Compared with Chernobyl, a larger amount of radioactivity was released in Fukushima. After Chernobyl, the majority of the radionuclide depositions affected the CIS countries. Due to continuously changing of wind directions and weather conditions during the 10 days of release of radioactivity, the radionuclide distribution and deposition was very inhomogeneous not only in the CIS countries, but even at far distances as in Germany, Scandinavia , the north of Scotland and many other countries. The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, has repeatedly placed particular emphasis on the fact that millions of people continue to be directly affected by the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, including acute suffering and continuing health disorders, and that this disaster is a matter of global concern. The most affected countries by the extent of radionuclide deposition show since years the incidence of cancer and other disorders of thyroid as well as many other serious health effects. After Chernobyl, nuclear disasters will happen again – as has been verified in Fukushima - in one of the more than 440 nuclear power stations worldwide. Most of them are located in areas with a population density several fold greater than in the case of Chernobyl. If we do not know the past, we will not be able to

  6. National Health Insurance Scheme: How Protected Are Households in Oyo State, Nigeria from Catastrophic Health Expenditure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The major objective of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in Nigeria is to protect families from the financial hardship of large medical bills. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE is rampart in Nigeria despite the take-off of the NHIS. This study aimed to determine if households enrolled in the NHIS were protected from having CHE. Methods The study took place among 714 households in urban communities of Oyo State. CHE was measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. Descriptive statistics were done, Principal Component Analysis was used to divide households into wealth quintiles. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were done. Results The mean age of household respondent was 33.5 years. The median household income was 43,500 naira (290 US dollars and the range was 7,000–680,000 naira (46.7–4,533 US dollars in 2012. The overall median household healthcare cost was 890 naira (5.9 US dollars and the range was 10-17,700 naira (0.1–118 US dollars in 2012. In all, 67 (9.4% households were enrolled in NHIS scheme. Healthcare services was utilized by 637 (82.9% and CHE occurred in 42 (6.6% households. CHE occurred in 14 (10.9% of the households in the lowest quintile compared to 3 (2.5% in the highest wealth quintile (P= 0.004. The odds of CHE among households in lowest wealth quintile is about 5 times. They had Crude OR (CI: 4.7 (1.3–16.8, P= 0.022. Non enrolled households were two times likely to have CHE, though not significant Conclusion Households in the lowest wealth quintiles were at higher risk of CHE. Universal coverage of health insurance in Nigeria should be fast-tracked to give the expected financial risk protection and decreased incidence of CHE.

  7. Impact of Osteoarthritis on Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungyoung; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Dalho; Jung, Sun-Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung

    2018-05-21

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of old age whose prevalence is increasing. This study explored the impact of OA on household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in Korea. We used data on 5,200 households from the Korea Health Panel Survey in 2013 and estimated annual living expenses and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Household CHE was defined when a household's total OOP health payments exceeded 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% of the household's capacity to pay. To compare the OOP payments of households with OA individuals and those without OA, OA households were matched 1:1 with households containing a member with other chronic disease such as neoplasm, hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, or osteoporosis. The impact of OA on CHE was determined by multivariable logistic analysis. A total of 1,289 households were included, and households with and without OA patients paid mean annual OOP payments of $2,789 and $2,607, respectively. The prevalence of household CHE at thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were higher in households with OA patients than in those without OA patients ( P < 0.001). The presence of OA patients in each household contributed significantly to CHE at thresholds of 10% (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.87), 20% (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66), and 30% (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78), but not of 40% (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57). The presence of OA patients in Korean households is significantly related to CHE. Policy makers should try to reduce OOP payments in households with OA patients.

  8. Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

    2016-01-01

    RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal

  9. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  10. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  11. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

  12. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  13. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  14. Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Calvet, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

  15. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  16. Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Čavojec, Ján

    2009-01-01

    This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

  17. The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

    OpenAIRE

    Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

  18. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  19. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  20. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  1. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  2. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roby Velez

    Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

  3. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  4. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  5. Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Y C

    2006-12-01

    Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia is an important tool for quality improvement and maintenance of high safety standards in anaesthetic services. It is now widely accepted as a useful quality improvement technique for reducing morbidity and mortality in anaesthesia and has become part of the many quality assurance programmes of many general hospitals under the Ministry of Health. Despite wide-spread reservations about its value, critical incident monitoring is a classical qualitative research technique which is particularly useful where problems are complex, contextual and influenced by the interaction of physical, psychological and social factors. Thus, it is well suited to be used in probing the complex factors behind human error and system failure. Human error has significant contributions to morbidities and mortalities in anaesthesia. Understanding the relationships between, errors, incidents and accidents is important for prevention and risk management to reduce harm to patients. Cardiac arrests in the operating theatre (OT) and prolonged stay in recovery, constituted the bulk of reported incidents. Cardiac arrests in OT resulted in significant mortality and involved mostly de-compensated patients and those with unstable cardiovascular functions, presenting for emergency operations. Prolonged-stay in the recovery extended period of observation for ill patients. Prolonged stay in recovery was justifiable in some cases, as these patients needed a longer period of post-operative observation until they were stable enough to return to the ward. The advantages of the relatively low cost, and the ability to provide a comprehensive body of detailed qualitative information, which can be used to develop strategies to prevent and manage existing problems and to plan further initiatives for patient safety makes critical incident monitoring a valuable tool in ensuring patient safety. The contribution of critical incident reporting to the issue of patient safety is

  6. Paying for hospital-based care of Kala-azar in Nepal: assessing catastrophic, impoverishment and economic consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Shiva R; Maskay, Nephil M; Sharma, Bishnu P

    2009-03-01

    Households obtaining health care services in developing countries incur substantial costs, despite services generally being provided free of charge by public health institutions. This constitutes an economic burden on low-income households, and contributes to deepening their level of poverty. In addition to the economic burden of obtaining health care, the method of financing these payments has implications for the distribution of household assets. This effect on resource-poor households is amplified since they have decreased access to health insurance. Recent literature, however, ignores the importance of the method of financing health care payments. This paper looks at the case of Nepal and highlights the impact on households of paying for hospital-based care of Kala-azar (KA) by analysing the catastrophic, impoverishment and economic consequences of their coping strategies. The paper utilizes micro-data on a random selection of 50% of the KA-affected households of Siraha and Saptari districts of Nepal. The empirical results suggest that direct costs of hospital-based treatment of KA are catastrophic since they consume 17% of annual household income. This expenditure causes more than 20% of KA-affected households to fall below the poverty line, with the remaining households being pushed into the category of marginal poor; the poverty gap ratio is more than 90%. Further, KA incidence can have prolonged and severe economic consequences for the household economy due to the mechanisms of informal sector financing to which households resort. A heavy burden of loan repayments can lead households on a downward spiral that eventually becomes a poverty trap. In other words, the method of financing health care payments is an important ingredient in understanding the economic burden of disease.

  7. Multiorgan failure and antiphospholipid antibodies: the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asherson, Ronald A

    2005-01-01

    A review of 250 patients with the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome (CAPS) taken from the web site organized by the Europhospholipid Group (http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM) is presented in this paper. A short historical overview of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is followed by a description of the "triggering" factors, associated autoimmune diseases, clinical presentation, presumed pathogenesis, prognosis, mode of death and suggested therapies. Triggering factors are present in approximately 50% of patients and consist predominantly of infections, trauma, including minor surgical procedures such as biopsies, obstetric-related multiorgan failure and malignancy-associated CAPS. The patients present mainly with multiorgan failure resulting from predominantly small vessel occlusions affecting mainly intra-abdominal organs such as bowel, liver, pancreas, and adrenals, although large vessel occlusions do occur and comprise mainly deep vein thromboses (DVT) of the veins of the lower limbs and arterial occlusions causing strokes and peripheral gangrene. They do not however dominate the clinical picture. The condition differs considerably from the simple/classic APS in several respects, viz. the rapid development of multiorgan failure following the above-mentioned identifiable precipitating factors, the involvement of unusual organs such as bowel, reproductive organs, and bone marrow, complicating features of disseminated intravascular coagulation in 20% of cases, the acute (adult) respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in one third of patients, and severe thrombocytopenia; these not being encountered in the simple/classic APS. Treatment consisting of regular and repeated plasma exchanges using fresh frozen plasma, and IV immunoglobulins in addition to parenteral steroids and anticoagulation are necessary to improve the survival in a condition where the mortality is still of the order of 50%. Treatment may have to be continued for several

  8. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  9. Significance of large Neptune-crossing objects for terrestrial catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, D.

    2014-07-01

    Over the past few decades a substantial number of objects have been discovered on orbits beyond Neptune (i.e. transneptunian objects, in various sub-classes), crossing Neptune's orbit (here: the Neptune-crossers of interest), and also others crossing the orbits of any or all of the jovian planets (i.e. Centaurs). These range in size from tens of kilometres across to hundreds of kilometres and more. Although formally classified as minor planets/asteroids, plus a few dwarf planets, the physical reality of these objects is that they are giant comets. That is, they seem to be composed largely of ices and if they were to enter the inner solar system then they would demonstrate the commonly-observed behaviour of comets such as outgassing, and the formation of ion and dust tails. Commonly-observed cometary behaviour, however, also includes fragmentation events and sometimes complete disintegration for no apparent cause (such as tidal disruption or thermal stresses). One might therefore wonder what the implications would be for life on Earth and terrestrial catastrophism if and when one of these objects, say 100 to 500 kilometres in size, dropped into a short-period orbit with perihelion distance (q) less than 1 au; or even q ˜ 5 au, given what Jupiter's gravity might do to it. How often might such events occur? One way to address that question would be to conduct numerical integrations of suitable test orbits and identify how often small-q orbits result, but this comes up against the problem of identifying very-infrequent events (with annual probabilities per object perhaps of order 10^{-12}-10^{-10}. For example, Emel'yanenko et al. [1] recently followed test orbits for approximately 5 × 10^{14} particle-years (8,925 objects with 200 clones of each, for 300 Myr) but because these were selected on the basis of initial values of q only below 36 (rather than ˜30) au many were not immediately Neptune-crossers; however, many test particles did eventually migrate into small

  10. Earthquake recovery of historic buildings: exploring cost and time needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Nammari, Fatima M; Lindell, Michael K

    2009-07-01

    Disaster recovery of historic buildings has rarely been investigated even though the available literature indicates that they face special challenges. This study examines buildings' recovery time and cost to determine whether their functions (that is, their use) and their status (historic or non-historic) affect these outcomes. The study uses data from the city of San Francisco after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to examine the recovery of historic buildings owned by public agencies and non-governmental organisations. The results show that recovery cost is affected by damage level, construction type and historic status, whereas recovery time is affected by the same variables and also by building function. The study points to the importance of pre-incident recovery planning, especially for building functions that have shown delayed recovery. Also, the study calls attention to the importance of further investigations into the challenges facing historic building recovery.

  11. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  12. Key Planning Factors for Recovery from a Biological Terrorism Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    number of people (particularly the elderly, very young, and immunocompromised ) may become ill from an exposure as small as 2 to 4 spores (based of...Gastrointestinal anthrax requires spores to be ingested. If untreated, mortality also is very high, but with antibiotic treatment mortality rates are low...anthrax cases (although in fewer numbers). Prophylaxis ( antibiotics ) and vaccines are available for most strains of Bacillus anthracis. The

  13. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe J. Taub

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  14. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

  15. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  16. History and Catastrophe: Tragedy and Reconciliation in Schiller and Hegel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Aranzueque

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available To what extent is it possible be reconciled with a tragic past? Could historical narration or dramatic performance help to get over the traumatic event indeed? Or do they just ascertain its constitutive contradictions, the split and the rift from a pain wich is impossible to sublimate? Is the mourning experience based on the recovery of a feeble balance between the opposite drives, emotions and feelings from the will? Or does it depend on the synthetic assimilation of that opposition into another way of life? This essay travels hand in hand with Schiller and Hegel across the space opened by those questions. It starts from the dissatisfaction generated in the young Hegel by his reading of Schiller’s Wallenstein and it analyzes his different conceptions of the ethic pathos, as well as his uneven perspective about the function of the chorus in the Attic tragedy

  17. Walking Recovery after a Hip Fracture: A Prospective Follow-Up Study among Community-Dwelling over 60-Year Old Men and Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anu Salpakoski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Recovery of walking outdoors after hip fracture is important for equal participation in the community. The causes of poor recovery are not fully understood. This study investigates recovery of walking outdoors and associated determinants after hip fracture. Methods. A prospective follow-up study, among clinical sample of 81 community-dwelling hip fracture patients over 60 years. Perceived difficulty in walking outdoors and 500 meters was assessed before fracture, at discharge to home (3.2 ± 2.2 weeks after surgery, and on average 6.0 ± 3.3 weeks after discharge. Potential determinants for walking recovery were assessed. Linear latent trajectory model was used to analyse changes during follow-up. Association between walking trajectories and potential determinants was analysed with a logistic regression model. Results. Two trajectories, No-to-minor-difficulty and Catastrophic, were found. Thirty-eight percent of the participants ended up in the Catastrophic trajectory for walking outdoors and 67% for 500 meters. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that use of walking aid and indoor falls before fracture and prolonged pain were independently associated with catastrophic decline in both primary outcomes: difficulty in walking outdoors and 500 meters. Conclusions. A large proportion of community-dwelling older people recovering from hip fracture experienced catastrophic decline in outdoor walking. Acknowledging recovery prognoses at early stage enables individualized rehabilitation.

  18. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, C.J. [Department of Botany, 2502 Plant Sciences Building, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7271 (United States)

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  19. Impact disruption and recovery of the deep subsurface biosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cockell, Charles S.; Voytek, Mary A.; Gronstal, Aaaron L

    2012-01-01

    the 35 million-year-old Chesapeake Bay impact structure, USA, with robust contamination control. Microbial enumerations displayed a logarithmic downward decline, but the different gradient, when compared to previously studied sites, and the scatter of the data are consistent with a microbiota influenced......Although a large fraction of the world's biomass resides in the subsurface, there has been no study of the effects of catastrophic disturbance on the deep biosphere and the rate of its subsequent recovery. We carried out an investigation of the microbiology of a 1.76 km drill core obtained from...

  20. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, A; Fort, H

    2009-01-01

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  1. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  2. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

  3. Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

    2015-09-01

    Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

  4. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  5. Catastrophic flood disturbance and a community's response to plant resilience in the heart of the Texas Hill Country

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Phillips, John N.; Perkins, Thaïs; Manning, Aspen; Julian, Jason P.

    2018-03-01

    The Blanco River, which flows through the limestone Balcones Canyonlands of central Texas (USA), experienced catastrophic flooding in May 2015 that resulted in significant biogeomorphic disturbance to its riparian corridor. High-resolution aerial and satellite imagery from pre- and post-flooding for a 55-km reach of river were used to map and categorize patterns of disturbance by degree of severity ranging from complete floodplain stripping to no disturbance. The most severe disturbance occurred within the floodway near the channel and decreased with lateral distance into the 100- and 500-year floodplains. Disturbance patterns previously identified in the literature including meander scour, parallel chute scour, convex bank erosion, and macroturbulent scour were all present following this event, as well as substantial disturbance proximal to tributary confluences. In the aftermath of this event, TreeFolks, a local nonprofit organization, engaged with the community to actively replant and restore the riparian corridor of the Blanco River on public and private lands. These reforestation efforts supplement the natural passive recovery of the riparian corridor, enabling the system to recover more quickly and be resilient to future flood events.

  6. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Onwujekwe, Obinna; Torpey, Kwasi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Chiegil, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services. An exit survey of adults (18+years) attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra). In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES) and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits) as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively. The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (ptravel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable and high cost burden of ART services. Full inclusion of ART services within the benefit package of the National Health Insurance Scheme should be considered.

  7. Indian community health insurance schemes provide partial protection against catastrophic health expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranson Kent

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More than 72% of health expenditure in India is financed by individual households at the time of illness through out-of-pocket payments. This is a highly regressive way of financing health care and sometimes leads to impoverishment. Health insurance is recommended as a measure to protect households from such catastrophic health expenditure (CHE. We studied two Indian community health insurance (CHI schemes, ACCORD and SEWA, to determine whether insured households are protected from CHE. Methods ACCORD provides health insurance cover for the indigenous population, living in Gudalur, Tamil Nadu. SEWA provides insurance cover for self employed women in the state of Gujarat. Both cover hospitalisation expenses, but only upto a maximum limit of US$23 and US$45, respectively. We reviewed the insurance claims registers in both schemes and identified patients who were hospitalised during the period 01/04/2003 to 31/03/2004. Details of their diagnoses, places and costs of treatment and self-reported annual incomes were obtained. There is no single definition of CHE and none of these have been validated. For this research, we used the following definition; "annual hospital expenditure greater than 10% of annual income," to identify those who experienced CHE. Results There were a total of 683 and 3152 hospital admissions at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. In the absence of the CHI scheme, all of the patients at ACCORD and SEWA would have had to pay OOP for their hospitalisation. With the CHI scheme, 67% and 34% of patients did not have to make any out-of-pocket (OOP payment for their hospital expenses at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. Both CHI schemes halved the number of households that would have experienced CHE by covering hospital costs. However, despite this, 4% and 23% of households with admissions still experienced CHE at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. This was related to the following conditions: low annual income, benefit

  8. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  9. Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara J Somers

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

  10. Recovery from schizophrenia and the recovery model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Richard

    2009-07-01

    The recovery model refers to subjective experiences of optimism, empowerment and interpersonal support, and to a focus on collaborative treatment approaches, finding productive roles for user/consumers, peer support and reducing stigma. The model is influencing service development around the world. This review will assess whether optimism about outcome from serious mental illness and other tenets of the recovery model are borne out by recent research. Remission of symptoms has been precisely defined, but the definition of 'recovery' is a more diffuse concept that includes such factors as being productive and functioning independently. Recent research and a large, earlier body of data suggest that optimism about outcome from schizophrenia is justified. A substantial proportion of people with the illness will recover completely and many more will regain good social functioning. Outcome is better for people in the developing world. Mortality for people with schizophrenia is increasing but is lower in the developing world. Working appears to help people recover from schizophrenia, and recent advances in vocational rehabilitation have been shown to be effective in countries with differing economies and labor markets. A growing body of research supports the concept that empowerment is an important component of the recovery process. Key tenets of the recovery model - optimism about recovery from schizophrenia, the importance of access to employment and the value of empowerment of user/consumers in the recovery process - are supported by the scientific research. Attempts to reduce the internalized stigma of mental illness should enhance the recovery process.

  11. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  12. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.

    2014-07-01

    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  13. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  14. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  15. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  16. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  17. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  18. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  19. Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

  20. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

  1. Heart Attack Recovery FAQs

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... recommendations to make a full recovery. View an animation of a heart attack . Heart Attack Recovery Questions ... Support Network Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Heart Attack Symptoms ...

  2. Water Recovery Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) is advancing environmental control and life support systems water recovery technologies to support human exploration beyond low...

  3. EPA Recovery Mapper

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Recovery Mapper is an Internet interactive mapping application that allows users to discover information about every American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

  4. 36-Year-Old Female with Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Treated with Eculizumab: A Case Report and Review of Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Strakhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare but potentially life-threatening condition characterized by diffuse vascular thrombosis, leading to multiple organ failure developing over a short period of time in the presence of positive antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL. CAPS is a severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, developing in about 1% of cases of classic antiphospholipid syndrome, manifesting as microangiopathy, affecting small vessels of multiple organs. It is acute in onset, with majority of cases developing thrombocytopenia and less frequently hemolytic anemia and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Lupus anticoagulant and anticardiolipin antibodies have been reported as predominant antibodies associated with CAPS. Treatment options often utilized in CAPS include anticoagulation, steroids, plasma exchange, cyclophosphamide therapy, and intravenous immunoglobulin therapy. Even though the reported incidence of this condition is considered to be low, the mortality rate is approaching 50%. The high rate of mortality should warrant greater awareness among clinicians for timely diagnosis and treatment of this life-threatening condition. Studies have shown that complement activation plays a key role in the pathogenesis of aPL mediated thrombosis in CAPS. We report a case of a 36-year-old female admitted with clinical and laboratory findings consistent with CAPS successfully treated with eculizumab, a terminal complement inhibitor.

  5. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  6. Cancer incidence among waiters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijula, Jere; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: To study cancer risk patterns among waiters in the Nordic countries. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 16,134 male and 81,838 female waiters from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. During the follow-up period from 1961 to 2005, we found that 19,388 incident cancer cases were...... diagnosed. Standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was defined as the observed number of cancer cases divided by the expected number, based on national age, time period and gender-specific cancer incidence rates in the general population. RESULTS: The SIR of all cancers in waiters, in the five countries combined...... INCIDENCE IN SOME CANCER SITES CAN LIKELY BE EXPLAINED BY HIGHER ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION, THE PREVALENCE OF SMOKING AND OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE TO TOBACCO SMOKE HOPEFULLY, THE INCIDENCE OF CANCER AMONG WAITERS WILL DECREASE IN THE FUTURE, DUE TO THE BANNING OF TOBACCO SMOKING IN RESTAURANTS AND BARS IN THE NORDIC...

  7. Disaster recovery: mitigating loss through documentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Flood, fire, tornado, hurricane. Whatever the cause, natural or man-made, the result on an organization can be devastating. Planning and preparation for disaster must include significant attention to disaster recovery. The ability to produce documentation of what existed, what was damaged, recovery costs and income losses will be essential to the claims adjustment process. This article discusses strategies for creating a historical record, leveraging contemporaneous incident command documentation and working with contractors to identify and record disaster-related expenses. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  8. Recovery from mental illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kirsten Schultz; Friis, Vivi Soegaard; Haxholm, Birthe Lodahl

    2015-01-01

    Mental health services strive to implement a recovery-oriented approach to rehabilitation. Little is known about service users' perception of the recovery approach. The aim is to explore the service user's perspectives on facilitators and barriers associated with recovery. Twelve residents living...

  9. Improving sample recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, R.J.

    1995-09-01

    This Engineering Task Plan (ETP) describes the tasks, i.e., tests, studies, external support and modifications planned to increase the recovery of the recovery of the waste tank contents using combinations of improved techniques, equipment, knowledge, experience and testing to better the recovery rates presently being experienced

  10. Radiological incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobzova, L.; Novotny, J.

    2008-01-01

    In many countries a reporting system of radiological incidents to national regulatory body exists and providers of radiotherapy treatment are obliged to report all major and/or in some countries all incidents occurring in institution. State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS) is providing a systematic guidance for radiotherapy departments from 1997 by requiring inclusion of radiation safety problems into Quality assurance manual, which is the basic document for obtaining a license of SONS for handling with sources of ionizing radiation. For that purpose SONS also issued the recommendation 'Introduction of QA system for important sources in radiotherapy-radiological incidents' in which the radiological incidents are defined and the basic guidance for their classification (category A, B, C, D), investigation and reporting are given. At regular periods the SONS in co-operation with radiotherapy centers is making a survey of all radiological incidents occurring in institutions and it is presenting obtained information in synoptic communication (2003 Motolske dny, 2005 Novy Jicin). This presentation is another summary report of radiological incidents that occurred in our radiotherapy institutions during last 3 years. Emphasis is given not only to survey and statistics, but also to analysis of reasons of the radiological incidents and to their detection and prevention. Analyses of incidents in radiotherapy have led to a much broader understanding of incident causation. Information about the error should be shared as early as possible during or after investigation by all radiotherapy centers. Learning from incidents, errors and near misses should be a part of improvement of the QA system in institutions. Generally, it is recommended that all radiotherapy facilities should participate in the reporting, analyzing and learning system to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge throughout the whole country to prevent errors in radiotherapy.(authors)

  11. A critical incident reporting system in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madzimbamuto, F D; Chiware, R

    2001-01-01

    To audit the recently established Critical Incident Reporting System in the Department of Anaesthesia and Critical Care Medicine, University of Zimbabwe Medical School. The system was set up with the purpose of improving the quality of care delivered by the department. Cross sectional study. A critical incident was defined as 'any adverse and reversible event in theatre, during or immediately after surgery that if it persisted without correction would cause harm to the patient'. The anaesthetic or recovery room staff filled a critical incident form anonymously. Data was collected from critical incident reporting forms for analysis. The anaesthetic service in the two teaching hospitals of Harare Central and Parirenyatwa General Hospitals. Between May and October 2000, 62 completed critical incident forms were collected. The nature of the incident and the monitoring used were recorded, the cause was classified as human, equipment or monitoring failure and the outcome for each patient reported. There was no formal system for reminding staff to fill in their critical incident forms. A total of 14,165 operations were performed over the reporting period: 62 critical incident forms were collected, reporting 130 incidents, giving a rate of 0.92% (130/14,165). Of these, 42 patients were emergencies and 20 elective. The incidents were hypotension, hypoxia, bradycardia, ECG changes, aspiration, laryngospasm, high spinal, and cardiac arrest. Monitoring present on patients who had critical incidents was: capnography 57%, oxymetry 90% and ECG 100%. Other monitors are not reported. Human error contributed in 32/62 of patients and equipment failure in 31/62 of patients. Patient outcome showed 15% died, 23% were unplanned admissions to HDU while 62% were discharged to the ward with little or no adverse outcome. Despite some under reporting, the critical incident rate was within the range reported in the literature. Supervision of juniors is not adequate, especially on call. The

  12. Pain-catastrophizing and fear-avoidance beliefs as mediators between post-traumatic stress symptoms and pain following whiplash injury - A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, T E; Karstoft, K-I; Brink, O; Elklit, A

    2016-09-01

    Knowledge about the course of recovery after whiplash injury is important. Most valuable is identification of prognostic factors that may be reversed by intervention. The mutual maintenance model outlines how post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and pain may be mutually maintained by attention bias, fear, negative affect and avoidance behaviours. In a similar vein, the fear-avoidance model describes how pain-catastrophizing (PCS), fear-avoidance beliefs (FA) and depression may result in persistent pain. These mechanisms still need to be investigated longitudinally in a whiplash cohort. A longitudinal cohort design was used to assess patients for pain intensity and psychological distress after whiplash injury. Consecutive patients were all contacted within 3 weeks after their whiplash injury (n = 198). Follow-up questionnaires were sent 3 and 6 months post-injury. Latent Growth Mixture Modelling was used to identify distinct trajectories of recovery from pain. Five distinct trajectories were identified. Six months post-injury, 64.6% could be classified as recovered and 35.4% as non-recovered. The non-recovered (the medium stable, high stable and very high stable trajectories) displayed significantly higher levels of PTSS, PCS, FA and depression at all time points compared to the recovered trajectories. Importantly, PCS and FA mediated the effect of PTSS on pain intensity. The present study adds important knowledge about the development of psychological distress and pain after whiplash injury. The finding, that PCS and FA mediated the effect of PTSS on pain intensity is a novel finding with important implications for prevention and management of whiplash-associated disorders. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: The study confirms the mechanisms as outlined in the fear-avoidance model and the mutual maintenance model. The study adds important knowledge of pain-catastrophizing and fear-avoidance beliefs as mediating mechanisms in the effect of post-traumatic stress on pain

  13. Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

    2012-09-01

    To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

  14. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  15. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pampuro, V.I.

    2001-01-01

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  16. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

  17. A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

    2017-03-01

    An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

  18. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  19. Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

  20. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

    2018-01-01

    the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

  1. Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1988-01-01

    Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…

  2. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  3. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  4. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  5. Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

    1996-01-01

    A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

  6. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  7. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

  8. New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

  9. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  10. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  11. Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

    2017-08-29

    The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

  12. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  13. Limb fracture during recovery from general anaesthesia : an often tragic complication of equine anaesthesia : clinical communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.B. Dzikiti

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A 10-year-old Thoroughbred mare was presented for lameness of the left hindlimb as a result of an apical fracture of the lateral proximal sesamoid bone. The mare was ultimately euthanased after suffering catastrophic fractures of the 3rd and 4th metatarsal bones of the contra-lateral hindlimb during an uncoordinated attempt to rise during recovery from general anaesthesia after undergoing arthroscopic surgery. The case report focuses mostly on horse anaesthesia-related mortality, anaesthetic procedure in the horse, possible causes of fractures in horses during recovery and ways in which rate of occurrence of these fractures can be minimised.

  14. Removing a broken guidewire in the hip joint: treatment options and recommendations for preventing an avoidable surgical catastrophe. A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhijeet Ashok Salunke

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT CONTEXT: Hardware breakage during hip surgery can pose challenging and difficult problems for orthopedic surgeons. Apart from technical difficulties relating to retrieval of the broken hardware, complications such as adjacent joint arthritis and damage to neurovascular structures and major viscera can occur. Complications occurring during the perioperative period must be informed to the patient and proper documentation is essential. The treatment options must be discussed with the patient and relatives and the implant company must be informed about this untoward incident. CASE REPORT: We report a case of complete removal of the implant and then removal of the broken guidewire using a combination of techniques, including a cannulated drill bit, pituitary forceps and Kerrison rongeur. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest some treatment options and recommendations for preventing an avoidable surgical catastrophe.

  15. Battleground Energy Recovery Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bullock, Daniel [USDOE Gulf Coast Clean Energy Application Center, Woodlands, TX (United States)

    2011-12-31

    In October 2009, the project partners began a 36-month effort to develop an innovative, commercial-scale demonstration project incorporating state-of-the-art waste heat recovery technology at Clean Harbors, Inc., a large hazardous waste incinerator site located in Deer Park, Texas. With financial support provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Battleground Energy Recovery Project was launched to advance waste heat recovery solutions into the hazardous waste incineration market, an area that has seen little adoption of heat recovery in the United States. The goal of the project was to accelerate the use of energy-efficient, waste heat recovery technology as an alternative means to produce steam for industrial processes. The project had three main engineering and business objectives: Prove Feasibility of Waste Heat Recovery Technology at a Hazardous Waste Incinerator Complex; Provide Low-cost Steam to a Major Polypropylene Plant Using Waste Heat; and Create a Showcase Waste Heat Recovery Demonstration Project.

  16. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.

    1996-03-01

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  17. GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

    2016-11-07

    Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  18. Police Incident Blotter (Archive)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Police Blotter Archive contains crime incident data after it has been validated and processed to meet Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) standards, published on a...

  19. 2011 Japanese Nuclear Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s RadNet system monitored the environmental radiation levels in the United States and parts of the Pacific following the Japanese Nuclear Incident. Learn about EPA’s response and view historical laboratory data and news releases.

  20. Prediction of Safety Incidents

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

  1. Marine Animal Incident Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Large whale stranding, death, ship strike and entanglement incidents are all recorded to monitor the health of each population and track anthropogenic factors that...

  2. Acute incidents during anaesthesia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    management of acute incidents and the prevention of ... High or total (complete) spinal blocks in obstetric .... Pain and opioid analgesics lead to delayed ... Step up postoperative care and use ... recognise suprasternal and supraclavicular.

  3. Chernobyl record. The definitive history of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R.F.

    2000-01-01

    The contents of Chernobyl Record have taken 14 years to compile and this period of time was necessary to enable information to be released from Soviet sources, measurements to be made in the environment, for estimation of radiation doses and for follow-up of the health of population groups which had been exposed. This time frame also includes the 10th anniversary conferences and the completion of joint projects of the European Commission, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It has also enabled me to visit the power plant site, Chernobyl town and Pripyat relatively soon after the accident and also some 10 years later: December 1987 and June 1998. Without such visits some of the photographs in this Record could not have been obtained. Information is also contained in these pages of comparisons of various aspects of the Chernobyl accident with data from the Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, the highly contaminated Techa river area in the Urals in Russia and the accident in Tokaimura, Japan in 1999. The first two chapters are introductory in that they describe terminology which is necessary for an understanding of the remaining chapters. Chapters 3-6 describes the early events: including those leading up to the explosion and then what followed in the immediate aftermath. Chapters 7-8 describe the Sarcophagus and the past and future of nuclear power for electricity generation, including the future of the Chernobyl power station. Chapters 9-11 consider the radiation doses received by various populations, including liquidators, evacuees and those living on contaminated territories: and the contamination of milk by 131 I, and the contamination of other parts of the food chain by 137 Cs. Chapters 12-14 describe the environmental impact of the accident, as does chapter 11. Chapters 15-18 detail the long-term effects on health, including not only the incidence of cancer, but also of non-malignant diseases and

  4. Chernobyl record. The definitive history of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mould, R.F

    2000-07-01

    The contents of Chernobyl Record have taken 14 years to compile and this period of time was necessary to enable information to be released from Soviet sources, measurements to be made in the environment, for estimation of radiation doses and for follow-up of the health of population groups which had been exposed. This time frame also includes the 10th anniversary conferences and the completion of joint projects of the European Commission, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It has also enabled me to visit the power plant site, Chernobyl town and Pripyat relatively soon after the accident and also some 10 years later: December 1987 and June 1998. Without such visits some of the photographs in this Record could not have been obtained. Information is also contained in these pages of comparisons of various aspects of the Chernobyl accident with data from the Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, the highly contaminated Techa river area in the Urals in Russia and the accident in Tokaimura, Japan in 1999. The first two chapters are introductory in that they describe terminology which is necessary for an understanding of the remaining chapters. Chapters 3-6 describes the early events: including those leading up to the explosion and then what followed in the immediate aftermath. Chapters 7-8 describe the Sarcophagus and the past and future of nuclear power for electricity generation, including the future of the Chernobyl power station. Chapters 9-11 consider the radiation doses received by various populations, including liquidators, evacuees and those living on contaminated territories: and the contamination of milk by {sup 131}I, and the contamination of other parts of the food chain by {sup 137}Cs. Chapters 12-14 describe the environmental impact of the accident, as does chapter 11. Chapters 15-18 detail the long-term effects on health, including not only the incidence of cancer, but also of non

  5. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  6. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans' Population after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-09-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility - both evacuation and migration - after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster.

  7. Recovery and money management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Michael; Serowik, Kristin L; Ablondi, Karen; Wilber, Charles; Rosen, Marc I

    2013-06-01

    Social recovery and external money management are important approaches in contemporary mental health care, but little research has been done on the relationship between the two or on application of recovery principles to money management for people at risk of being assigned a representative payee or conservator. Out of 49 total qualitative interviews, 25 transcripts with persons receiving Social Security insurance or Social Security disability insurance who were at risk of being assigned a money manager were analyzed to assess the presence of recognized recovery themes. The recovery principles of self-direction and responsibility were strong themes in participant comments related to money management. Money management interventions should incorporate peoples' recovery-related motivations to acquire financial management skills as a means to direct and assume responsibility for one's finances. Staff involved in money management should receive training to support client's recovery-related goals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  9. Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

    2017-01-18

    Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

  10. Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

    2009-01-01

    As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

  11. Incidence of Postoperative Residual Paralysis in a Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-01-30

    Jan 30, 2018 ... Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of PORP, associated factors related with its occurrence and critical respiratory events in the postanesthesia recovery room (PAR) at our institution. Methodology: Forty‑one adult patients were scheduled for elective surgeries requiring GA with the use ...

  12. Organisational Pattern Driven Recovery Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacomo, Valentina Di; Presenza, Domenico; Riccucci, Carlo

    The process of reaction to system failures and security attacks is strongly influenced by its infrastructural, procedural and organisational settings. Analysis of reaction procedures and practices from different domains (Air Traffic Management, Response to Computer Security Incident, Response to emergencies, recovery in Chemical Process Industry) highlight three key requirements for this activity: smooth collaboration and coordination among responders, accurate monitoring and management of resources and ability to adapt pre-established reaction plans to the actual context. The SERENITY Reaction Mechanisms (SRM) is the subsystem of the SERENITY Run-time Framework aimed to provide SERENITY aware AmI settings (i.e. socio-technical systems with highly distributed dynamic services) with functionalities to implement applications specific reaction strategies. The SRM uses SERENITY Organisational S&D Patterns as run-time models to drive these three key functionalities.

  13. Tenth oil recovery conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sleeper, R.

    1993-01-01

    The Tertiary Oil Recovery Project is sponsored by the State of Kansas to introduce Kansas producers to the economic potential of enhanced recovery methods for Kansas fields. Specific objectives include estimation of the state-wide tertiary oil resource, identification and evaluation of the most applicable processes, dissemination of technical information to producers, occasional collaboration on recovery projects, laboratory studies on Kansas applicable processes, and training of students and operators in tertiary oil recovery methods. Papers have been processed separately for inclusion on the data base

  14. Hazmat Yearly Incident Summary Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Series of Incident data and summary statistics reports produced which provide statistical information on incidents by type, year, geographical location, and others....

  15. Radiation incidents in dentistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovelock, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Most dental practitioners act as their own radiographer and radiologist, unlike their medical colleagues. Virtually all dental surgeons have a dental X-ray machine for intraoral radiography available to them and 40% of dental practices have equipment for dental panoramic tomography. Because of the low energy of X-ray equipment used in dentistry, radiation incidents tend to be less serious than those associated with other aspects of patient care. Details of 47 known incidents are given. The advent of the 1985 and 1988 Ionising Radiation Regulations has made dental surgeons more aware of the hazards of radiation. These regulations, and general health and safety legislation, have led to a few dental surgeons facing legal action. Because of the publicity associated with these court cases, it is expected that there will be a decrease in radiation incidents arising from the practice of dentistry. (author)

  16. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

  17. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    OpenAIRE

    Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

    2012-01-01

    Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

  18. Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Main, J.; Wunner, G.

    1997-01-01

    Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  19. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  20. Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

    2013-10-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

  1. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2016-11-14

    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  2. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing

  3. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing.

  4. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

    2015-01-01

    While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; pMalaysia.

  5. New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareev, Fangil

    2008-03-01

    We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

  6. Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

    2017-11-01

    The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

  7. Evaluating core technology capacity based on an improved catastrophe progression method: the case of automotive industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shijia; Liu, Zongwei; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Fuquan

    2017-01-01

    Subjectivity usually causes large fluctuations in evaluation results. Many scholars attempt to establish new mathematical methods to make evaluation results consistent with actual objective situations. An improved catastrophe progression method (ICPM) is constructed to overcome the defects of the original method. The improved method combines the merits of the principal component analysis' information coherence and the catastrophe progression method's none index weight and has the advantage of highly objective comprehensive evaluation. Through the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of the automotive industry's core technology capacity, the comprehensive evaluation model is established according to the different roles that different indices play in evaluating the overall goal with a hierarchical structure. Moreover, ICPM is developed for evaluating the automotive industry's core technology capacity for the typical seven countries in the world, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.

  8. Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

  9. The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonaki, Yotetsu

    2016-01-01

    The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

  10. The Fernald wet records recovery project: A case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sterling, H.J.; Devir, B.R.; Hawley, R.A. [Fernald Environmental Restoration Management Corp., Cincinnati, OH (United States); Freesmeyer, M.T. [USDOE Ohio Field Office (United States)

    1995-06-22

    This paper discusses a project performed to recover wet records discovered in January 1995 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP). This paper discusses the emergency and record recovery phases of the project, the technical options considered for records recovery, and special measures which were required due to radiological contamination of the records. Also, the root causes and lessons learned from the incident, and path forward for future records management operations at Fernald, are discussed.

  11. Service Recovery Sebagai Upaya Peningkatan Kualitas Layanan Perbankan

    OpenAIRE

    Liestyana, Yuli

    2008-01-01

    This study focused on an empirical investigation of service failure and service recoveryin retail banking. Different types of failures and recovery strategies used by banks wereidentified by using critical incident interviews. A survey questionnaire was then developed tomeasure customers' perceptions of the magnitude of service failure and the effectiveness ofservice recovery strategies. A number of research hypothesis were tested relating to thecustomers' evaluations of particular banking fa...

  12. The Fernald wet records recovery project: A case history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterling, H.J.; Devir, B.R.; Hawley, R.A.; Freesmeyer, M.T.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses a project performed to recover wet records discovered in January 1995 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP). This paper discusses the emergency and record recovery phases of the project, the technical options considered for records recovery, and special measures which were required due to radiological contamination of the records. Also, the root causes and lessons learned from the incident, and path forward for future records management operations at Fernald, are discussed

  13. Nuclear power station with nuclear reactor accommodated largely secure against catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, O.

    1987-01-01

    If the nuclear reactor is installed underground near the power station unit, then danger to the environment due to radiation contamination can be largely or nearly completely prevented by a covering of constant thickness or by a covering which can be installed by a catastrophic accident. The extinguishing of a burning reactor is also relatively simple for a reactor accommodated in a pit. The above-mentioned measures can be used individually or combined. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

  15. Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-16

    through support by a prior DOD grant, and in this project, we focused on how to effectively adapt this for the cloud catastrophe environment. The...the effects of varying cloud resources and the cloud architecture on L, o, and g values, we will be able to formulate realistic analytical models of...variation in computing and communication costs of test problems due to varying loads in the cloud environment. We used the parallel matrix multiplication

  16. Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-30

    Ropes James Chen Beam Physics Branch Plasma Physics Division December 30, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. i REPORT...pressure gradient force combine to balance the major radial hoop force. The macroscopic forces on the flux ropes and onset conditions are quantified...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division

  17. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorre, H.

    1992-01-01

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  18. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  19. Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsü, Kenneth J.

    1980-05-01

    Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

  20. Factors Contributing to the Catastrophe in Mexico City During the Earthquake of September 19, 1985

    OpenAIRE

    Beck, James L.; Hall, John F.

    1986-01-01

    The extensive damage to high‐rise buildings in Mexico City during the September 19, 1985 earthquake is primarily due to the intensity of the ground shaking exceeding what was previously considered credible for the city by Mexican engineers. There were two major factors contributing to the catastrophe, resonance in the sediments of an ancient lake that once existed in the Valley of Mexico, and the long duration of shaking compared with other coastal earthquakes in the last 50 years. Both of th...

  1. The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

    OpenAIRE

    Gatti, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

  2. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  3. Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

    2017-09-01

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

  4. 1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

  5. Selection and application of effective LNAPL recovery techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulton, D.E.

    1996-01-01

    The accumulation of light non-aqueous phase liquids (LNAPL) such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and lubricating oil resulting from historical or catastrophic releases, is present at numerous industrial and hazardous waste sites. Initiating LNAPL removal is the first step in remediating impacted groundwater with the LNAPL recovery process having a profound effect on the ability to cost effectively achieve site closure. In many cases, LNAPL recovery precedes full-scale groundwater design activities or even final site characterization due to regulatory compliance issues. Therefore, the timely and effective implementation of a LNAPL recovery system can result in reduced project costs by mitigating further plume migration, achieving maximum volume of recoverable hydrocarbons, eliminating the source area associated with dissolved phase contamination, and allowing comprehensive groundwater remediation to be employed sooner. Effective LNAPL recovery systems begin with evaluating a number of site-specific parameters to quantify the physical characteristics of the type of LNAPL to be recovered, the hydrogeological environment, LNAPL, plume geometry, and the specified client or regulatory cleanup goals. These parameters are discussed along with their significance in developing a conceptual understanding of the site

  6. The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novacek, M J; Cleland, E E

    2001-05-08

    The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

  7. Making sense in the edge of chaos : a framework for effective initial response efforts to large-scale incidents

    OpenAIRE

    Renaud, Cynthia E.

    2010-01-01

    CHDS State/Local Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A review of response efforts to 9/11 revealed considerable challenges to resolving an event of this magnitude. To cope with these challenges, the federal government created the National Incident Management System (NIMS), an organizational structure intended to manage resources and channel communication between disparate agencies working together to solve a catastrophic crisis. Yet, first responders who have bee...

  8. Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

    2008-11-01

    We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

  9. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  10. Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

    2012-07-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

  11. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-22

    Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

  12. Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

    2016-11-01

    Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. Illness management and recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalum, Helle Stentoft; Waldemar, Anna Kristine; Korsbek, Lisa

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Illness Management and Recovery (IMR) is a psychosocial intervention with a recovery-oriented approach. The program has been evaluated in different settings; however evidence for the effects of IMR is still deficient. The aim of this trial was to investigate the benefits and harms...

  14. Localization and Poincaré catastrophe in the problem of a photon scattering on a pair of Rayleigh particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksimenko, V. V.; Zagaynov, V. A.; Agranovski, I. E.

    2013-11-01

    It is shown that complexities in a problem of elastic scattering of a photon on a pair of Rayleigh particles (two small metallic spheres) are similar to the complexities of the classic problem of three bodies in celestial mechanics. In the latter problem, as is well known, the phase trajectory of a system becomes a nonanalytical function of its variables. In our problem, the trajectory of a virtual photon at some frequency could be considered such as the well-known Antoine set (Antoine's necklace) or a chain with interlaced sections having zero topological dimension and fractal structure. Such a virtual “zero-dimensional” photon could be localized between the particles of the pair. The topology suppresses the photon's exit to the real world with dimensional equal-to-or-greater-than units. The physical reason for this type of photon localization is related to the “mechanical rigidity” of interlaced sections of the photon trajectory due to a singularity of energy density along these sections. Within the approximations used in this paper, the effect is possible if the frequency of the incident radiation is equal to double the frequency of the dipole surface plasmon in an isolated particle, which is the only character frequency in the problem. This condition and transformation of the photon trajectory to the zero-dimensional Antoine set reminds of some of the simplest variants of Poincaré's catastrophe in the dynamics of some nonintegrable systems. The influence of the localization on elastic light scattering by the pair is investigated.

  15. INEX 5 - General information. INEX 5 Exercise on Notification, Communication and Interfaces Related to Catastrophic Events Involving Radiation or Radiological Materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okyar, Halil Burcin; Lazo, Ted

    2014-01-01

    The INEX series of international nuclear emergency exercises, organised under the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), has proven successful in testing, investigating and improving the arrangements for responding to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies at the national and international level. Previous INEX exercises focussed largely on national and international aspects of early phase management of emergencies at nuclear power plants and more recently, in INEX 4, on issues in consequence management and transition to recovery in response to malicious acts involving the release of radioactive materials in an urban setting. Since the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it has been recognised that notification, communication, and identifying and obtaining resources during catastrophic events can be difficult and the need for established protocols, policies, and procedures among and between country entities is critical for minimizing negative impacts. Therefore, the benefit and goal of INEX 5 is to provide a basis for enhancing national and international emergency management arrangements related to notification, communication and obtaining resources through the exchange of exercise outcomes and experiences from participating countries, in order to identify good practice and common issues to be addressed. INEX 5 will address emergency management aspects of notification, communication and interfaces between and among country and international organizations. INEX 5 is set up as a table top exercise with three levels of discussion for participants (prior to a release, recognizing/validating a release, and impacts to the radiological event from a catastrophic natural event). Countries can develop additional materials to expand this table top to a full field exercise if preferred. Prior to initiation of the table top, participants will be provided clear guidance about how the exercise will be conducted. Because this exercise may involve government agencies and

  16. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  17. Incident users of antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baandrup, Lone; Kruse, Marie

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: In Denmark, as well as in many other countries, consumption of antipsychotics is on the rise, partly due to increasing off-label use. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the extent of off-label use and polypharmacy in incident users of antipsychotic medication, and to examine...

  18. Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers' Ability and Willingness to Report to Work for the Department of Health During Catastrophic Disasters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schechter, Shelly

    2007-01-01

    .... According to recent studies of paid healthcare professionals, approximately forty percent may be unable or unwilling to report to work during catastrophic disasters, but these questions have not yet...

  19. GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Zolotarev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

  20. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  1. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  2. Impact of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on the trend of catastrophic health expenditure in Chinese rural households: results from nationally representative surveys from 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Biao; Huo, Minghe; Wang, Zhiqiang; Chen, Yongjie; Fu, Rong; Liu, Meina; Meng, Qun

    2018-02-08

    To evaluate the trend of catastrophic health expenses (CHE) for inpatient care in relation to the commencement of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in rural China from 2003 to 2013, and the roles of NCMS in protecting affected households from CHE. We assessed the 10-year trend of the incidence and severity of CHE in rural households with hospitalised members using data from the Chinese National Health Services Survey. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate the OR and 95% CI of the association between incidence rates of CHE ([Formula: see text]) and NCMS reimbursement. The incidence and severity of CHE after NCMS reimbursement both decreased and their changes increased rapidly from 2003 to 2013. After adjustment of the covariates, [Formula: see text] before reimbursement was significantly higher than that after reimbursement, and the OR (95% CI) was 1.50 (1.24 to 1.81), 1.79 (1.69 to 1.90) and 2.94 (2.77 to 3.11) in 2003, 2008 and 2013, respectively. The incidence and severity of CHE both reduced after NCMS reimbursements in each year. Excluding some confounding factors, [Formula: see text] was significantly associated with NCMS reimbursement. NCMS partly protected the rural households with hospitalised members from CHE. However, the inequalities between different income groups still existed. [Formula: see text] in rural households with hospitalised members was still rather high in 2003, 2008 and 2013 even though they were covered by NCMS. This study will provide suggestions for further reforms in China and guidance for other low-income/middle-income countries. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  3. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  4. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-12-01

    Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

  5. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

    1996-02-01

    The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

  6. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

    2004-01-01

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  7. The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

    2018-03-01

    Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Incidents with hazardous radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenhacker, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Incidents with hazardous radiation sources can occur in any country, even those without nuclear facilities. Preparedness for such incidents is supposed to fulfill globally agreed minimum standards. Incidents are categorized in incidents with licensed handling of radiation sources as for material testing, transport accidents of hazardous radiation sources, incidents with radionuclide batteries, incidents with satellites containing radioactive inventory, incidents wit not licensed handling of illegally acquired hazardous radiation sources. The emergency planning in Austria includes a differentiation according to the consequences: incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in restricted contamination, incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in local contamination, and incidents with the hazard of e@nhanced exposure due to the radiation source.

  9. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure and poverty related to out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Bangladesh-an estimation of financial risk protection of universal health coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Jahangir A M; Ahmed, Sayem; Evans, Timothy G

    2017-10-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals target to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), including financial risk protection (FRP) among other dimensions. There are four indicators of FRP, namely incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), mean positive catastrophic overshoot, incidence of impoverishment and increase in the depth of poverty occur for high out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare spending. OOP spending is the major payment strategy for healthcare in most low-and-middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh. Large and unpredictable health payments can expose households to substantial financial risk and, at their most extreme, can result in poverty. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of OOP spending on CHE and poverty, i.e. status of FRP for UHC in Bangladesh. A nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 was used to determine household consumption expenditure and health-related spending in the last 30 days. Mean CHE headcount and its concentration indices (CI) were calculated. The propensity of facing CHE for households was predicted by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The poverty headcount was estimated using 'total household consumption expenditure' and such expenditure without OOP payments for health in comparison with the poverty-line measured by cost of basic need. In absolute values, a pro-rich distribution of OOP payment for healthcare was found in urban and rural Bangladesh. At the 10%-threshold level, in total 14.2% of households faced CHE with 1.9% overshoot. 16.5% of the poorest and 9.2% of the richest households faced CHE. An overall pro-poor distribution was found for CHE (CI = -0.064) in both urban and rural households, while the former had higher CHE incidences. The poverty headcount increased by 3.5% (5.1 million individuals) due to OOP payments. Reliance on OOP payments for healthcare in Bangladesh should be reduced for poverty alleviation in urban and rural Bangladesh in order to

  10. SERVICE RECOVERY SEBAGAI UPAYA PENINGKATAN KUALITAS LAYANAN PERBANKAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuli Liestyana

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on an empirical investigation of service failure and service recoveryin retail banking. Different types of failures and recovery strategies used by banks wereidentified by using critical incident interviews. A survey questionnaire was then developed tomeasure customers’ perceptions of the magnitude of service failure and the effectiveness ofservice recovery strategies. A number of research hypothesis were tested relating to thecustomers’ evaluations of particular banking failure and recovery strategies, their previousexperience of failure, demographic variables, and relationship. 400 questionnaires werecollected from customers of the banks in Yogyakarta. Service failure and service recovery foundthat importance and effectiveness, customers’ assessment were different between theexperienced and the non-experienced customers in several items, also among the customerswith different demographic variables. The different level of customer commitment causedsignificant difference of customers’ demand of service recovery.

  11. Population catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankomah, B

    1990-07-01

    UNFPA estimates predict that Africa's population will be 1.5 billion by 2025. In the next 10 years the growth rate will be 3%, the highest for any region in human history. Nigeria is expected to have 301 million people in 35 years, making it the 3rd largest country behind India and China. Currently the economies of African countries can not provide enough jobs or food for the current population. What is going to happen in 35 years when the population will almost double? In 1950 Africa only made up 9% of the world population, but by 2025 it will be 18.4% of a global population of 8.4 billion. Currently half of Africa's population is under 15. This means that there is still time to affect change. There is time to convince this generation not to behave like their parents. A 2 child limit per family is an absolute limit if any progress is to be made that will actually have an effect. Many have suggested that the young people should go back to the land instead of living in poverty in the city. However, currently the land distribution is 0.4 hectares/rural person. This figure is going to drop to 0.29/rural person. Migration is simply not the solution. Many rural farmers want to have enough children to ensure that their land is inherited and stays in the family. The same goal can be achieved, with less children. According to the UNFPA 77% of married women who do not want to have more children do not use contraceptives. Only 14% of African women use contraceptives, so that by age 20 50% of African women have had 1 birth. The only way to seriously cut down the birth rate is to get the men of Africa involved in contraceptive use.

  12. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enyi Etiaba

    Full Text Available A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services.An exit survey of adults (18+years attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra. In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively.The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (p<0.0001. Rural dwellers incurred more CHE for all categories of costs compared to urban dwellers, but the costs were statistically significant for only outpatient costs.ART subsidization is not enough to eliminate economic burden of treatment on HIV patients. Service decentralization to reduce travel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable

  13. Upset Prevention and Recovery for Unimpaired and Impaired Aircraft, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of the project is the development of an on-board envelope estimation, protection and upset recovery tool to address loss of control incidents in...

  14. Maximum Credible Incidents

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    Following the incident in sector 34, considerable effort has been made to improve the systems for detecting similar faults and to improve the safety systems to limit the damage if a similar incident should occur. Nevertheless, even after the consolidation and repairs are completed, other faults may still occur in the superconducting magnet systems, which could result in damage to the LHC. Such faults include both direct failures of a particular component or system, or an incorrect response to a “normal” upset condition, for example a quench. I will review a range of faults which could be reasonably expected to occur in the superconducting magnet systems, and which could result in substantial damage and down-time to the LHC. I will evaluate the probability and the consequences of such faults, and suggest what mitigations, if any, are possible to protect against each.

  15. Maternal cerebrovascular accidents in pregnancy: incidence and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Jennifer; Murphy, Cliona; Murray, Aoife; O'Laoide, Risteard; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

    2010-12-01

    Stroke occurring during pregnancy and the postnatal period is a rare but potentially catastrophic event. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence and outcomes of pregnancies complicated by maternal stroke in a single centre. This is a prospective study of over 35,000 consecutive pregnancies over a four-year period at the National Maternity Hospital in Dublin from 2004 to 2008; in addition we also retrospectively examined all cases of maternal mortality at our institution over a 50-year period from 1959 to 2009. We prospectively identified eight cases of strokes complicating pregnancy and the postnatal period giving an overall incidence of 22.34 per 100,000 pregnancies or 24.74 per 100,000 deliveries. There were no stroke-related mortalities during that time. Retrospective analysis of maternal mortality revealed 102 maternal deaths over a 50-year period, 19 (18.6%) of which were due to cerebrovascular accidents. In conclusion, strokes complicating pregnancy and the puerperium remain a rare event and though there appears to be evidence that the incidence is increasing, the associated maternal mortality appears to be falling.

  16. Contaminated Mexican steel incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    This report documents the circumstances contributing to the inadvertent melting of cobalt 60 (Co-60) contaminated scrap metal in two Mexican steel foundries and the subsequent distribution of contaminated steel products into the United States. The report addresses mainly those actions taken by US Federal and state agencies to protect the US population from radiation risks associated with the incident. Mexico had much more serious radiation exposure and contamination problems to manage. The United States Government maintained a standing offer to provide technical and medical assistance to the Mexican Government. The report covers the tracing of the source to its origin, response actions to recover radioactive steel in the United States, and return of the contaminated materials to Mexico. The incident resulted in significant radiation exposures within Mexico, but no known significant exposure within the United States. Response to the incident required the combined efforts of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Department of State, and US Customs Service (Department of Treasury) personnel at the Federal level and representatives of all 50 State Radiation Control Programs and, in some instances, local and county government personnel. The response also required a diplomatic interface with the Mexican Government and cooperation of numerous commercial establishments and members of the general public. The report describes the factual information associated with the event and may serve as information for subsequent recommendations and actions by the NRC. 8 figures

  17. Energy recovery from wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Stefanis, P.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper are reported analysis of some energy recovery form wastes plants. In this work are considered materials and energy flows, environmental impacts and related treatment costs and financial resources [it

  18. Recovery Audit Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Recovery Audit Programs mission is to identify and correct Medicare improper payments through the efficient detection and collection of overpayments made on...

  19. FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This is a search site for FEMA's Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC). A DRC is a readily accessible facility or mobile office set up by FEMA where applicants may go for...

  20. Spatially Dispersed Employee Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvass, Kristian Anders; Torfadóttir, Embla

    2014-01-01

    Employee recovery addresses either employee well-being or management's practices in aiding employees in recovering themselves following a service failure. This paper surveys the cabin crew at a small, European, low-cost carrier and investigates employees' perceptions of management practices to aid...... personnel achieve service recovery. Employee recovery within service research often focuses on front-line employees that work in a fixed location, however a contribution to the field is made by investigating the recovery of spatially dispersed personnel, such as operational personnel in the transport sector......, who have a work place away from a fixed or central location and have minimal management contact. Results suggest that the support employees receive from management, such as recognition, information sharing, training, and strategic awareness are all important for spatially dispersed front...

  1. Recovery Action Mapping Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Recovery Action Mapping Tool is a web map that allows users to visually interact with and query actions that were developed to recover species listed under the...

  2. Incineration with energy recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahoney, T.G.

    1986-02-01

    Motherwell Bridge Tacol Ltd. operate a 'Licence Agreement' with Deutsche Babcock Anlagen of Krefeld, West Germany, for the construction of Municipal Refuse Incineration plant and Industrial Waste plant with or without the incorporation of waste heat recovery equipment. The construction in the UK of a number of large incineration plants incorporating the roller grate incinerator unit is discussed. The historical background, combustion process, capacity, grate details, refuse analysis and use as fuel, heat recovery and costs are outlined.

  3. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  4. Catastrophic health expenditure among households with members with special diseases: A case study in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Ghobad; Safari, Hossein; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Qanbari, Laila; Farshadi, Salahadin; Qasri, Homan; Farhadifar, Fariba

    2017-01-01

    Background: One of the main goals of health systems is to protect people against financial risks associated with diseases that can be catastrophic for patients. In 2014, Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP) was implemented in Iran; one of the objectives of HSEP was to reduce out-of-pocket payments and provide more financial protection for people. Therefore, the present study aimed at exploring the likelihood of facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) among households with members suffering from dialysis, kidney transplant, or multiple sclerosis (MS) after the implementation of HSEP. Methods: A total number of 385 households were selected using stratified random sampling and were asked to complete the World Health Survey questionnaire through telephone conversations. As outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO), when household out-of-pocket expense for health services is ≥40% of its capacity to pay, then that household is considered to be facing CHE. Furthermore, determinants of CHE were identified using logistic regression. Results: The percentage of facing catastrophic health care expenditures for households with a MS, dialysis, and kidney transplant patient was 20.6%, 18.7%, and 13.8%, respectively. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that patient's economic status, level of education, supplementary insurance status, type of disease, multiple members with special diseases in the household, rural residence, use of inpatient, dental, and rehabilitation services were effective factors for determining the likelihood of facing CHE. Conclusion: Despite the implementation of HSEP, the percentage of CHE is still high for households that have members who suffer from special diseases. However, basic health insurance packages should be amended and more cost-sharing exemptions should be granted to provide more financial protection for the vulnerable households.

  5. S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muriel Erent

    Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

  6. Thermal thresholds and catastrophizing in individuals with chronic pain after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raak, Ragnhild; Wallin, Mia

    2006-10-01

    Thermal sensitivity, thermal pain thresholds, and catastrophizing were examined in individuals with whiplash associated disorders (WAD) and in healthy pain-free participants. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) was used to measure skin sensitivity to cold and warmth and cold and heat pain thresholds over both the thenar eminence and the trapezius muscle (TrM) in 17 participants with WAD (age 50.8 +/- 11.3 years) and 18 healthy participants (age 44.8 +/- 10.2 years). The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to determine pain coping strategies, and visual analogue scales were used for self-assessment of current background pain in individuals in the WAD group as well as experienced pain intensity and unpleasantness after QST and sleep quality in all participants. There were significant differences in warmth threshold and cold and heat pain thresholds of the TrM site between the WAD and pain-free groups. Significant differences between the two groups were also found for the catastrophizing dimension of helplessness in the PCS and in self-assessed quality of sleep. A correlational analysis showed that current background pain is significantly correlated with both cold discrimination and cold pain threshold in the skin over the TrM in individuals with WAD. These findings imply that thermal sensitivity is an important factor to consider in providing nursing care to individuals with WAD. Because biopsychosocial factors also influence the experience of pain in individuals with WAD, the role of nurses includes not only the description of the pain phenomenon but also the identification of relieving and aggravating factors.

  7. Catastrophic misinterpretations as a predictor of symptom change during treatment for panic disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A; Marker, Craig D; Clerkin, Elise M

    2010-12-01

    Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related to the trajectory of change in a variety of panic-relevant outcomes. Participants had a primary diagnosis of panic disorder (N = 43; 70% female; mean age = 40.14 years). Race or ethnicity was reported as 91% Caucasian, 5% African American, 2.3% biracial, and 2.3% "other." Change in catastrophic misinterpretations (assessed with the Brief Body Sensations Interpretation Questionnaire; Clark et al., 1997) was used to predict a variety of treatment outcomes, including overall panic symptom severity (assessed with the Panic Disorder Severity Scale [PDSS]; Shear et al., 1997), panic attack frequency (assessed with the relevant PDSS item), panic-related distress/apprehension (assessed by a latent factor, including peak anxiety in response to a panic-relevant stressor-a straw breathing task), and avoidance (assessed by a latent factor, which included the Fear Questionnaire-Agoraphobic Avoidance subscale; Marks & Mathews, 1979). Bivariate latent difference score modeling indicated that, as expected, change in catastrophic misinterpretations predicted subsequent reductions in overall symptom severity, panic attack frequency, distress/apprehension, and avoidance behavior. However, change in the various symptom domains was not typically a significant predictor of later interpretation change (except for the distress/apprehension factor). These results provide considerable support for the cognitive model of panic and speak to the temporal sequence of change processes during therapy. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Quality of life in major depressive disorder: the role of pain and pain catastrophizing cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ka-Fai; Tso, Kwok-Chu; Yeung, Wing-Fai; Li, Wei-Hui

    2012-05-01

    Pain symptoms are frequent complaints in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Although it is known that pain intensity and pain-related cognition predict quality of life (QOL) in patients with chronic pain, limited studies have examined their roles in MDD. The study aimed to determine whether pain and pain catastrophizing were independent predictors of QOL in MDD after accounting for the impact of anxiety and depression. This is a prospective, naturalistic follow-up study. Ninety-one Chinese patients were enrolled during an acute episode of MDD, 82 of them were reassessed 3 months later using the same assessment on pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL. Pain intensity was evaluated using a verbal rating scale and a visual analog scale. Quality of life was assessed using the 36-item Short Form Health Survey. Pain-related cognition was assessed at baseline with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. There was significant improvement in pain, anxiety, depression, and QOL from baseline to 3-month follow-up. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that pain intensity was significantly associated with QOL at baseline and 3 months. Pain complaint was more important than anxiety and depressive symptoms in predicting changes in both physical and psychosocial domains of QOL. After controlling for the severity of pain, anxiety, and depression, Pain Catastrophizing Scale score was independently associated with QOL in MDD. The study supports the specific role of pain and pain-related cognition in predicting QOL in depressed patients. Further studies targeting pain-related cognition for improving the outcome of MDD are necessary. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

    2013-11-01

    Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

  10. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Blanc, Thierry; Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne

    2006-01-01

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  11. [Demographic situation in Chernigiv area and its connection with Chernobyl catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donets', M P

    2004-12-01

    The article presents statistics concerning demographic "crisis" in the regions of Chernigiv area and in Ukraine, as a whole with connection to consequences resulted from Chernobyl catastrophe. The crisis is characterized by increase in population mortality and birth rate reduction, that caused negative natural growth tendency of population. The factors causing reduction in population number of Chernigiv Oblast and in Ukraine as a whole are the following: the effect of ionizing radiation, social-economic indices (the reduction of population profits, unemployment, worsening of medical care, psychoemotional stress caused by the crisis situation in Ukraine, migration of the considerable number of population abroad).

  12. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  13. The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lazaridou A

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Asimina Lazaridou,1 Marc O Martel,1 Christine M Cahalan,1 Marise C Cornelius,1 Olivia Franceschelli,1 Claudia M Campbell,2 Jennifer A Haythornthwaite,2 Michael Smith,2 Joseph Riley,3 Robert R Edwards1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Department of Community Dentistry and Behavioral Science, College of Dentistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Objective: To examine the influence of anxiety and pain-related catastrophizing on the time course of acute interleukin-6 (IL-6 responses to standardized noxious stimulation among patients with chronic pain.Methods: Data were collected from 48 participants in the following demographically matched groups: patients with chronic pain (n=36 and healthy controls (n=12. Participants underwent a series of Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST procedures assessing responses to mechanical and thermal stimuli during two separate visits, in a randomized order. One visit consisted of standard, moderately painful QST procedures, while the other visit involved nonpainful analogs to these testing procedures. Blood samples were taken at baseline, and then for up to 2 hours after QST in order to study the time course of IL-6 responses.Results: Results of multilevel analyses revealed that IL-6 responses increased across assessment time points in both visits (p<0.001. While patients with chronic pain and healthy controls did not differ in the magnitude of IL-6 responses, psychological factors influenced IL-6 trajectories only in the chronic pain group. Among patients, increases in catastrophizing over the course of the QST session were associated with elevated IL-6 responses only during the painful QST session (p<0.05. When controlling for anxiety, results indicated that the main multilevel model among patients remained significant

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Radiology, Rouen (France); Blanc, Thierry [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Neonatal Medicine, Rouen (France); Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne [University Hospital of Rouen, Haematology Laboratory, Rouen (France)

    2006-08-15

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  15. Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome and catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in a patient with antidomain I antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galland, Joris; Mohamed, Shirine; Revuz, Sabine; de Maistre, Emmanuel; de Laat, Bas; Marie, Pierre-Yves; Zuily, Stéphane; Lévy, Bruno; Regnault, Véronique; Wahl, Denis

    2016-07-01

    Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome is a rare condition characterized by the association of acquired factor II deficiency and lupus anticoagulant. Contrary to classical antiphospholipid syndrome, it may cause severe life-threatening bleeding (89% of published cases). We report a patient, positive for antidomain I antibodies, with initially primary lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome without previous clinical manifestation or underlying systemic disease. Five years later, he experienced the first systemic lupus erythematous flare. Within a few days, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney involvement. The patient recovered under pulse steroids, intravenous heparin and intravenous immunoglobulins.

  16. Computer aid in rescue organisation on site in case of catastrophic situation on nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teissier, M.

    1992-01-01

    The rescue organisation in case of catastrophic situation is based on known principles: creation of medical buffer structures between hazard spot where injured people are being collected and rear hospitals, triage of victims as urgent casualties. We will propose computer aid in order to value the time used to prepare and evacuate all the victims from the site, knowing inventory of available means, waiting periods and lengths of intervention, types and number of victims. Thus, it is possible to optimize the former organisation, qualitatively and quantitatively to improve efficiency in rescuing operations. (author)

  17. Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) Charger: Spacesuit Battery Charger Design with 2-Fault Tolerance to Catastrophic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Davies, Frank

    2009-01-01

    Charger design that is 2-fault tolerant to catastrophic has been achieved for the Spacesuit Li-ion Battery with key features. Power supply control circuit and 2 microprocessors independently control against overcharge. 3 microprocessor control against undercharge (false positive: Go for EVA) conditions. 2 independent channels provide functional redundancy. Capable of charge balancing cell banks in series. Cell manufacturing and performance uniformity is excellent with both designs. Once a few outliers are removed, LV cells are slightly more uniform than MoliJ cells. If cell balance feature of charger is ever invoked, it will be an indication of a significant degradation issue, not a nominal condition.

  18. Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

  19. Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

  20. Recent advances on failure and recovery in networks of networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shekhtman, Louis M.; Danziger, Michael M.; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    Until recently, network science has focused on the properties of single isolated networks that do not interact or depend on other networks. However it has now been recognized that many real-networks, such as power grids, transportation systems, and communication infrastructures interact and depend on other networks. Here, we will present a review of the framework developed in recent years for studying the vulnerability and recovery of networks composed of interdependent networks. In interdependent networks, when nodes in one network fail, they cause dependent nodes in other networks to also fail. This is also the case when some nodes, like for example certain people, play a role in two networks, i.e. in a multiplex. Dependency relations may act recursively and can lead to cascades of failures concluding in sudden fragmentation of the system. We review the analytical solutions for the critical threshold and the giant component of a network of n interdependent networks. The general theory and behavior of interdependent networks has many novel features that are not present in classical network theory. Interdependent networks embedded in space are significantly more vulnerable compared to non-embedded networks. In particular, small localized attacks may lead to cascading failures and catastrophic consequences. Finally, when recovery of components is possible, global spontaneous recovery of the networks and hysteresis phenomena occur. The theory developed for this process points to an optimal repairing strategy for a network of networks. Understanding realistic effects present in networks of networks is required in order to move towards determining system vulnerability.