WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic incident recovery

  1. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  2. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  3. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  4. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

  5. Declining incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby: 1996-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohu, Yoann; Julia, Marc; Bagate, Christian; Peyrin, Jean-Claude; Colonna, Jean-Pierre; Thoreux, Patricia; Pascal-Moussellard, Hugues

    2009-02-01

    To investigate the incidence and the risk factors of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby. Descriptive epidemiology study. The patients included had cervical spine injuries causing neurological disorder classified from the ASIA scale, grade A to D. A retrospective review of all cases that occurred between the 1996-1997 and the 2005-2006 seasons was made. Circumstances of the injuries and of the clinical outcome were collected by interview. There were 37 cases of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby for the last 10 years. The incidence of the cervical spine injuries decreased during this period. The rates of injury were 2.1 per 100,000 players per year during the 1996-1997 season and 1.4 during the 2005-2006 season (P scrum was a major cause of injury, accounting for 51.3% (19/37). The forwards represented 89.2% (33/37) of the injured players. The hookers were involved in 37.8% (14/37) of the cases. The measures of prevention with the modification of the rules of scrum and the creation of a medical certificate required for players to play in the front row must have been successful. The incidence of disabling cervical spine injuries in French rugby has decreased for the last 10 years, which is linked to the decreasing incidence of injuries in the scrum. This epidemiological study shows the effectiveness of the preventive measures on cervical spine injuries in French rugby players. A national register of catastrophic cervical spine injuries extends our epidemiological observations.

  6. Incidence and correlates of 'catastrophic' maternal health care expenditure in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonu, Sekhar; Bhushan, Indu; Rani, Manju; Anderson, Ian

    2009-11-01

    Using data from the 60(th) round of the National Sample Survey of India (2004), the study investigates the incidence and correlates of 'catastrophic' maternal expenditure (ME) in India. Data on ME come from 6879 births that took place during 365 days prior to the survey. The study adapts earlier definitions and methods for catastrophic total health care expenditure to measure 'catastrophic' ME as: (i) maternal health care expenditure more than 10% of the annual normative household consumption expenditure (ME-1), and (ii) maternal health care expenditure more than 40% of the annual 'capacity to pay' (ME-2). The 'capacity to pay' was derived by subtracting state-wise poverty-line household expenditure from household consumption expenditure. The average maternal expenditure varied by place of delivery: US dollar 9.5, US dollar 24.7 and US dollar 104.3 for birth at home, in a public facility and in a private facility, respectively. Sixteen per cent of households incurred ME of more than 10% of total household consumption expenditure (ME-1), while 51% households incurred ME of more than 40% of household 'capacity to pay' (ME-2). While incidence of ME-1 increased with income decile, the reverse was observed for ME-2, reflecting higher non-utilization of institutional maternal care and its non-affordability among poorer households. All the households from the poorest decile and 99% from the second poorest decile paid more than 40% of their capacity to pay. Multivariate regression results indicate that antenatal care and delivery care in private facilities increased the chances of ME-1 and ME-2 (P increase utilization of maternal services and reduce the financial distress associated with ME.

  7. Vegetation recovery patterns assessment at landslides caused by catastrophic earthquake: a case study in central Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Wen-Chieh; Lin, Wen-Tzu; Lin, Chao-Yuan

    2009-05-01

    The catastrophic earthquake, 7.3 on the Richter scale, occurred on September 21, 1999 in Central Taiwan. Much of standing vegetation on slopes was eliminated and massive, scattered landslides were induced at the Jou-Jou Mountain area of the Wu-Chi basin in Nantou County. We evaluated three methods for assessing landslide hazard and vegetation recovery conditions. (1) Self-organizing map (SOM) neural network coupled with fuzzy technique was used to quickly extract the landslide. (2) The NDVI-based vegetation recovery index derived from multi-temporal SPOT satellite images was used to evaluate vegetation recovery rate in the denudation sites. (3) The spatial distribution index (SDI) based on land-cover topographic location was employed to analyze vegetation recovery patterns, including the invading, surviving and mixed patterns at the Jou-Jou Mountain area. On September 27, 1999, there were 849.20 ha of landslide area extracted using the self-organizing map and fuzzy technique combined model. After six years of natural vegetation succession, the landslide has gradually restored, and vegetation recovery rate reached up to 86%. On-site observation shows that many native pioneer plants have invaded onto the denudation sites even if disturbed by several typhoons. Two native surviving plants, Arundo formosana Hack and Pinus taiwanensis Hayata, play a vital role in natural vegetation succession in this area, especially for the sites on ridgeline and steep slopes.

  8. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Prospective. The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union ('rugby') players (population at risk). Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries-fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme.

  9. Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

    2017-02-06

    Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

  10. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  11. Strategic preparedness for recovery from catastrophic risks to communities and infrastructure systems of systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2012-11-01

    Natural and human-induced disasters affect organizations in myriad ways because of the inherent interconnectedness and interdependencies among human, cyber, and physical infrastructures, but more importantly, because organizations depend on the effectiveness of people and on the leadership they provide to the organizations they serve and represent. These human-organizational-cyber-physical infrastructure entities are termed systems of systems. Given the multiple perspectives that characterize them, they cannot be modeled effectively with a single model. The focus of this article is: (i) the centrality of the states of a system in modeling; (ii) the efficacious role of shared states in modeling systems of systems, in identification, and in the meta-modeling of systems of systems; and (iii) the contributions of the above to strategic preparedness, response to, and recovery from catastrophic risk to such systems. Strategic preparedness connotes a decision-making process and its associated actions. These must be: implemented in advance of a natural or human-induced disaster, aimed at reducing consequences (e.g., recovery time, community suffering, and cost), and/or controlling their likelihood to a level considered acceptable (through the decisionmakers' implicit and explicit acceptance of various risks and tradeoffs). The inoperability input-output model (IIM), which is grounded on Leontief's input/output model, has enabled the modeling of interdependent subsystems. Two separate modeling structures are introduced. These are: phantom system models (PSM), where shared states constitute the essence of modeling coupled systems; and the IIM, where interdependencies among sectors of the economy are manifested by the Leontief matrix of technological coefficients. This article demonstrates the potential contributions of these two models to each other, and thus to more informative modeling of systems of systems schema. The contributions of shared states to this modeling and to

  12. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  13. 32 CFR 537.6 - Identification of recovery incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... accidents, gas explosions, falls, civilian malpractice, and similar incidents) that do not involve... screened to identify potential cases. The RJA or recovery attorney will screen the MTF comptroller records database and division records as well as ambulance logs to identify potential medical care recovery cases...

  14. Income related inequality and influencing factors: a study for the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure in rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Hai; Kou, Yun; Yan, Zhiwen; Ding, Yilei; Shieh, Jusheng; Sun, Jun; Cui, Nan; Wang, Qianjing; You, Hua

    2017-09-20

    Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) puts a heavy disease burden on patients' families, aggravating income-related inequality. In an attempt to reduce the financial risks of rural families incurring CHE, China began the New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NCMS) on a trial basis in 2003 and has raised the reimbursement rates continuously since then. Based on statistical data about rural families in sample area of Jiangsu province, this study measures the incidence of CHE, analyzes socioeconomic inequality related to CHE, and explores the influences of the NCMS on the incidence of CHE. Statistical data were acquired from two surveys about rural health care, one conducted in 2009 and one conducted in 2010. In 2009, 1424 rural families were analyzed; in 2010, 1796 rural families were analyzed. An index of CHE is created to enable the evaluation of the associated financial risks. The concentration index and concentration curve are used to measure the income-related inequality involved in CHE. Multiple logistic regression is utilized to explore the factors that influence the incidence of CHE. The incidence of CHE decreased from 13.62% in 2009 to 7.74% in 2010. The concentration index of CHE was changed from -0.298 (2009) to -0.323 (2010). Compared with rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, rural families in which some members were not covered by the NCMS had a lower incidence of CHE: The odds ratio is 0.65 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.43 to 1.00. For rural families in which all members were covered by the NCMS, the increase in reimbursement rates is correlated to the decline in the incidence of CHE if other influencing factors were controlled: The odds ratio is 0.48 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.36 to 0.64. Between 2009 and 2010, the incidence rate of CHE in the sampled area decreased sharply, CHE was more concentrated among least wealthy and inequality increased during study period. As of 2010, the poorest rural families still had

  15. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, J.C.; Lambert, M.I.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Readhead, C.; van Mechelen, W.; Viljoen, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design: Prospective. Setting: The South African

  16. Considering employee needs during a catastrophe requires innovative recovery plans: Why traditional workplace recovery solutions are outdated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Joe

    2017-01-01

    Mobile technology has changed the way we live and operate, with co-working, flexible spaces and home office solutions that offer us the freedom to work when and where we choose. However, when disaster strikes the workplace, people are often the last to be considered in the recovery process. This paper examines strategies for businesses and their employees to continue working after a disaster strikes. It explores the trends in the market, the benefits and drawbacks of different approaches and the attitudes of continuity experts and small business owners who have the responsibility to ensure that businesses, and people, continue to function, even when their main place of work is inaccessible. Informed by expertise and experience, this paper also draws on the extant literature, as well as bespoke research targeted at both continuity professionals and business decision-makers, to discover more about attitudes to disaster recovery.

  17. Should We Stay or Should We Go Now? The Physical, Economic, Geopolitical, Social and Psychological Factors of Recovery from Catastrophic Disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    to relocate after a catastrophic disaster.31 This thesis reviews the demographics and poverty of Seaside to determine impacts in recovery. Oddly...with 44,000 people left homeless as a result of the event. Approximately 100,000 buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. Survivors were forced...control over their plight.128 Homeless survivors temporarily housed in camps were made to feel as if their plight is overstated as Prime Minister

  18. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  19. Examining inequities in incidence of catastrophic health expenditures on different healthcare services and health facilities in Nigeria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obinna Onwujekwe

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited evidence about levels of socio-economic and other differences in catastrophic health spending in Nigeria and in many sub-Saharan African countries. The study estimated the level of catastrophic healthcare expenditures for different healthcare services and facilities and their distribution across socioeconomic status (SES groups. METHODS: The study took place in four Local Government Areas in southeast Nigeria. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires administered to 4873 households. Catastrophic health expenditures (CHE were measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. We examined both total monthly health expenditure and disaggregated expenditure by source and type of care. RESULTS: The average total household health expenditure per month was 2354 Naira ($19.6. For outpatient services, average monthly expenditure was 1809 Naira ($15.1, whilst for inpatient services it was 610 Naira ($5.1. Higher health expenditures were incurred by urban residents and the better-off SES groups. Overall, 27% of households incurred CHE, higher for poorer socioeconomic groups and for rural residents. Only 1.0% of households had a member that was enrolled in a health insurance scheme. CONCLUSION: The worse-off households (the poorest SES and rural dwellers experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. There was almost a complete lack of financial risk protection. Health reform mechanisms are needed to ensure universal coverage with financial risk protection mechanisms.

  20. The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design Prospective. Setting The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. Participants An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union (‘rugby’) players (population at risk). Outcome measures Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries—fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. Results The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. Conclusions The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme. PMID:23447464

  1. Impact of the national prevention policy and scrum law changes on the incidence of rugby-related catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French Rugby Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboursiere, E; Bohu, Y; Retière, D; Sesboüé, B; Pineau, V; Colonna, J P; Hager, J P; Peyrin, J C; Piscione, J

    2016-07-25

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries are rare in rugby union but require close monitoring. The aim of this study was to analyse the incidence of severe cervical spine injuries and determine the impact of a national prevention programme and new scrum rules implemented by the French Rugby Union. A prospective study was performed between 2006 and 2013 including all players affiliated to the French Rugby Union. All cervical spine injuries resulting in death, tetraplegia or a permanent neurological deficit were included. Prevention programmes were implemented from 2007 to 2013 and a change in scrum rules in 2010. To measure the impact of rule changes, results between 2006-2010 and 2010-2013 were compared using a Poisson regression. Altogether, 31 injuries were observed and the mean annual incidence was 1.6 per 100 000 players. There were significantly more injuries in senior players compared to junior players (3.5 vs 0.6 per 100 000 players; CI 95% (2.1 to 4.9) vs (0.1 to 1.0)). Incidence decreased from 1.8 in 2006 to 1.0 per 100 000 players in 2013 (pscrums (p=0.02). In contrast, there were significantly more injuries in backs during 2010-2013 compared to 2006-2010 (p=0.003). The incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries has declined in French Rugby Union. The implementation of specific prevention programmes and scrum law changes has notably resulted in a decrease in scrum injuries in forwards. This prospective study should be continued to monitor the future progression of injuries and adapt prevention programmes accordingly. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  3. 76 FR 54004 - Agency Information Collection (Report of Medical, Legal, and Other Expenses Incident to Recovery...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-30

    ... VA Form 21-8416b to report compensation awarded by another entity or government agency for personal... incident to the injury or death, or incident to the collection or recovery of the compensation may be... direction of the Secretary. Denise McLamb, Program Analyst, Enterprise Records Service. BILLING CODE 8320-01...

  4. Key Planning Factors for Recovery from a Radiological Terrorism Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    is the radioactive source material specified in National Planning Scenario #11. Cs-137 has also been involved in several real-world accidents ...including a significant incident in 1987, where scavengers dismantled a metal canister from a radiotherapy machine at an abandoned cancer clinic in...report describing the Cs-137 accident in Goiania, Brazil. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory September 2012Key Planning Factors for Radiological

  5. Recovery from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents. Critical infrastructure and economic impact considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franco, David Oliver [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Yang, Lynn I. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hammer, Ann E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-06-01

    To restore regional lifeline services and economic activity as quickly as possible after a chemical, biological or radiological incident, emergency planners and managers will need to prioritize critical infrastructure across many sectors for restoration. In parallel, state and local governments will need to identify and implement measures to promote reoccupation and economy recovery in the region. This document provides guidance on predisaster planning for two of the National Disaster Recovery Framework Recovery Support Functions: Infrastructure Systems and Economic Recovery. It identifies key considerations for infrastructure restoration, outlines a process for prioritizing critical infrastructure for restoration, and identifies critical considerations for promoting regional economic recovery following a widearea disaster. Its goal is to equip members of the emergency preparedness community to systematically prioritize critical infrastructure for restoration, and to develop effective economic recovery plans in preparation for a widearea CBR disaster.

  6. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man.......The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  7. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... increased DNA replication stress....

  8. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    of the Nakba in 2008 and clashes between the police and young Palestinians in 2006, the article demonstrates how Palestinians in Denmark seek to reverse the reverse myth of 1948 by seizing contemporary catastrophes to enact not only past and present Nakbas, but also potential futures. The article concludes...

  9. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  10. Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn A Fancourt

    Full Text Available The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their

  11. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  12. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  13. Association Between Changes in Risk Factor Status and Suicidal Ideation Incidence and Recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Yip, Paul Siu Fai; Chang, Shu-Sen; Wong, Paul Wai Ching; Law, Frances Yik Wa

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about risk factors associated with the incidence of and recovery from suicidal ideation. To examine the association between potential risk factors and their change in status over the follow-up period and the incidence of and recovery from suicidal ideation. A 12-month follow-up survey was conducted among 997 adults aged between 20 and 59 years living in Hong Kong. The incidence rates of suicidal ideation increased in individuals who were divorced, separated, or widowed, in low economic status, had a history of psychiatric treatment, and experienced bereavement at baseline. Experiencing three or more life events and persistent unemployment over the follow-up period was associated with increased incidence of suicidal ideation. Increased levels of depression, anxiety, hopelessness, and irrational beliefs were associated with suicidal ideation incidence in men but not in women (p = .009-.067 for interactions). Among individuals who had suicidal ideation at baseline, those who had increased severity of depression, anxiety, and hopelessness over the follow-up period were less likely to recover from suicidal ideation. Life events and persistent unemployment were associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation. Gender differences were detected in the association between changes in the status of psychological factors and the occurrence of suicidal ideation.

  14. Femoral Nerve Palsy Following Total Hip Arthroplasty: Incidence and Course of Recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischman, Andrew N; Rothman, Richard H; Parvizi, Javad

    2018-04-01

    Femoral nerve palsy (FNP) is a relatively uncommon complication following total hip arthroplasty (THA). There is little recent literature regarding the incidence of FNP and the natural course of recovery. Using our institutional database, we identified postoperative FNPs from 17,350 consecutive primary THAs performed from 2011 to 2016. Hip exposures were performed using a direct lateral (modified Hardinge), direct anterior (Smith-Peterson), anterolateral (Watson-Jones), or posterolateral (Southern or Moore) approach. Patients with FNP were contacted to provide a subjective assessment of convalescence and underwent objective muscle testing to determine the extent of motor recovery. The overall incidence of FNP was 0.21% after THA, with the incidence 14.8-fold higher in patients undergoing anterior hip surgery using either a direct anterior (0.40%) or anterolateral (0.64%) approach. Significant recovery from FNP did not commence for a majority of patients until greater than 6 months postoperatively. Motor weakness had resolved in 75% of patients at 33.3 months, with remaining patients suffering from mild residual weakness that typically did not necessitate an assistive walking device or a knee brace. Nearly all patients had improved sensory manifestations, but such symptoms had completely resolved in less than 20% of patients. FNP after hip surgery remains relatively uncommon, but may increase with a growing interest in anterior THA exposures. A near complete recovery with only mild motor deficits can be expected for a majority of patients in less than 2 years, although sensory symptoms may persist. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  16. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  17. Underweight among rural Indian adults: burden, and predictors of incidence and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Fawzi, Wafaie Wahib; Bromage, Sabri; Barik, Anamitra; Chowdhury, Abhijit

    2018-03-01

    To study the magnitude and predictors of underweight, incident underweight and recovery from underweight among rural Indian adults. Prospective cohort study. Each participant's BMI was measured in 2008 and 2012 and categorized as underweight (BMIBirbhum Health and Demographic Surveillance System, West Bengal, India. Predominantly rural individuals (n 6732) aged ≥18 years enrolled in 2008 were followed up in 2012. In 2008, the prevalence of underweight was 46·5 %. From 2008 to 2012, 25·8 % of underweight persons transitioned to normal BMI, 12·9 % of normal-weight persons became underweight and 0·1 % of overweight/obese persons became underweight. Multivariable models reveal that people aged 25-49 years, educated and wealthier people, and non-smokers had lower odds of underweight in 2008 and lower odds of incident underweight. Odds of recovery from underweight were lower among people aged ≥36 years and higher among educated (Grade 6 or higher) individuals. The current study highlights a high incidence of underweight and important risk factors and modifiable predictors of underweight in rural India, which may inform the design of local nutrition interventions.

  18. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  19. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  20. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, W.H.; Zapata, L.A.

    2013-01-01

    The Iridium-192 ( 192 Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m 2 , some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  1. Considering the unthinkable—A review and discussion of current international law and suggestions regarding how we deal with a catastrophic incident in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer-Downie, Darcy

    2013-12-01

    It is now clear that private enterprise and not nationally funded space agencies will be the driving force behind development of space for the "benefit" of private enterprise and the general public. It is also not unreasonable to say that in the next 20-30 years we will see the public accessing space via sub-orbital flights, orbital excursions, orbiting hotels and possibly even hotels located on a celestial body. The existing principles regarding the rescue and return of "astronauts" was never fit for purpose and is certainly not appropriate for this new era of private space activity. Activities in space are dangerous and the travelling public is generally risk adverse. So how do we balance the obvious risks associated with space travel, against the societal desire to seek adventures in space and with the prevailing risk adverse culture? It is now time to seriously consider the development of international safety standards for space vehicles and habitations in order to ensure that rescue and return from a space excursion is a reality for passengers and crew. If we fail to do so then the scenario set out below may become a tragic reality. Catastrophic ScenarioConsider a scenario in which a space hotel loses a significant amount of its in-orbit life support capability. Rescue is underway but it will take time. The Captain realises that there is not enough oxygen on board for all to survive until rescue. What if anything can be done?

  2. Determinants of medication incident reporting, recovery, and learning in community pharmacies: a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Todd A; Mahaffey, Thomas; Mackinnon, Neil J; Deal, Heidi; Hallstrom, Lars K; Morgan, Holly

    2011-03-01

    Evidence suggests that the underreporting of medication errors and near misses, collectively referred to as medication incidents (MIs), in the community pharmacy setting, is high. Despite the obvious negative implications, MIs present opportunities for pharmacy staff and regulatory authorities to learn from these mistakes and take steps to reduce the likelihood that they reoccur. However, these activities can only take place if such errors are reported and openly discussed. This research proposes a model of factors influencing the reporting, service recovery, and organizational learning resulting from MIs within Canadian community pharmacies. The conceptual model is based on a synthesis of the literature and findings from a pilot study conducted among pharmacy management, pharmacists, and pharmacy technicians from 13 community pharmacies in Nova Scotia, Canada. The purpose of the pilot study was to identify various actions that should be taken to improve MI reporting and included staff perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of their current MI-reporting process, desired characteristics of a new process, and broader external and internal activities that would likely improve reporting. Out of the 109 surveys sent, 72 usable surveys were returned (66.1% response rate). Multivariate analysis of variance found no significant differences among staff type in their perceptions of the current or new desired system but were found for broader initiatives to improve MI reporting. These findings were used for a proposed structural equation model (SEM). The SEM proposes that individual-perceived self-efficacy, MI process capability, MI process support, organizational culture, management support, and regulatory authority all influence the completeness of MI reporting, which, in turn, influences MI service recovery and learning. This model may eventually be used to enable pharmacy managers to make better decisions. By identifying risk factors that contribute to low MI

  3. Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in high school and college football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P; Tacchetti, Robin L; Cantu, Robert C; Knowles, Sarah B; Mueller, Frederick O

    2006-08-01

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in football are rare but tragic events. To update the incidence of catastrophic cervical injuries in scholastic football players and identify new injury patterns. Descriptive epidemiology study. The authors retrospectively reviewed 196 incidents of catastrophic high school and collegiate football injuries reported to the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research during 13 academic years (September 1989 through June 2002). There were 15.08 direct catastrophic cervical spine injuries in scholastic football participants per year, an incidence of 1.10 and 4.72 injuries per 100 000 high school and 100 000 college participants, respectively. Seventy-six athletes had quadriplegia (5.85 per year), 0.50 per 100 000 high school players and 0.82 per 100 000 college players. Spear tackling by players on defense continued to be the predominant mechanism of injury causing quadriplegia. Five athletes had a Brown-Séquard-like syndrome; only 1 made a full recovery. One athlete with Brown-Séquard-like syndrome and permanent neurologic symptoms reported a cervical cord neurapraxia event before the study period. Forty-three athletes (3.31 per year) had diagnosed cervical cord neurapraxia. In addition to hyperflexion and hyperextension injuries, axial forces were found to cause cervical cord neurapraxia. Sixteen of the 43 athletes returned to football after a cervical cord neurapraxia episode, and none of the 16 suffered a permanent quadriplegic event. Nine athletes sustained an isolated injury at the C1 or C2 level, and 7 sustained a combined injury at the C1, or C2 level and at a subaxial level. The total number of quadriplegic events for high school and college football players is approximately 6 per year, with a higher incidence at the college level. Cervical cord neurapraxia can be caused by hyperflexion, hyperextension, and axial compression forces. Upper level cervical injuries involving the atlas and axis can occur in

  4. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  5. Key Planning Factors for Recovery from a Chemical Warfare Agent Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    GB], Franke, S., Manual of Military Chemistry , Volume 1. Chemistry of Chemical Warfare Agents, Deutscher Militîrverlag: Berlin (East), 1967... Chemistry , Volume 1. Chemistry of Chemical Warfare Agents, Deutscher Militîrverlag: Berlin (East), 1967. Translated from German by U.S. Department of...Response and Recovery Phases A common misconception is that recovery begins after the response phase. Recovery, however, actually begins during

  6. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  7. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  8. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed.......It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  9. Nipple Pain Incidence, the Predisposing Factors, the Recovery Period After Care Management, and the Exclusive Breastfeeding Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puapornpong, Pawin; Paritakul, Panwara; Suksamarnwong, Maysita; Srisuwan, Siriwan; Ketsuwan, Sukwadee

    2017-04-01

    Nipple pain is the most common complaint of breastfeeding mothers during the immediate postpartum period. Persistent nipple pain is associated with low breastfeeding rate at 6 months postpartum. To further explore the incidence of nipple pain, associated predisposing factors, time for recovery after management, and the impact on exclusive breastfeeding rates. Included in this study were 1,649 singleton, pregnant women who delivered and had their 1-week follow-up at the breastfeeding clinic during the period of January 2013 to December 2015. The mothers who experienced nipple pain were analyzed for the incidence, the predisposing factors, and the recovery period after care management. The breastfeeding outcome comparison of both, mothers with and without pain, was measured by the exclusive breastfeeding rate at the sixth week postpartum. The incidence of nipple pain was at 9.6% by day 7. A predisposing factor of nipple pain was primiparity (relative risk = 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3-2.5). The reasons for nipple pain were inappropriate positioning and latching (72.3%), tongue-tie (23.2%), and oversupply (4.4%). The recovery period after care management was 1-2 weeks. There were no statistically significant differences between the 6-week exclusive breastfeeding rates of the mothers with nipple pain with treatment and the mothers without nipple pain. Persistent nipple pain was a common problem. The active management, including early detection and treatment, would help the mothers recover within a 2-week period and there was no significant difference of exclusive breastfeeding rates between the mothers who had early care management and the mothers without nipple pain.

  10. Effects of a recovery-oriented cognitive therapy training program on inpatient staff attitudes and incidents of seclusion and restraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Nadine A; Grant, Paul M; Luther, Lauren; Beck, Aaron T

    2014-05-01

    We investigated the feasibility of implementing a recovery-oriented cognitive therapy (CT-R) milieu training program in an urban acute psychiatric inpatient unit. Over a 1-month period, 29 staff members learned short-term CT-R strategies and techniques in an 8-h workshop. Trainees' perceptions of CT-R, beliefs about the therapeutic milieu, and attitudes about working with individuals with psychosis were evaluated both before the workshop and 6 months after the workshop had been completed. Incidents of seclusion and restraint on the unit were also tallied prior to and after the training. Results indicate that staff perceptions of CT-R and their beliefs about the therapeutic environment significantly improved, whereas staff attitudes towards individuals with psychosis remained the same. Incidents of seclusion and restraint also decreased after the training. These findings provide evidence that CT-R training is feasible and can improve the therapeutic milieu of an acute psychiatric inpatient unit.

  11. Recovery from a chemical weapons accident or incident: A concept paper on planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herzenberg, C.L.; Haffenden, R.; Lerner, K.; Meleski, S.A.; Tanzman, E.A. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Lewis, L.M. [US Dept. of Agriculture (United States); Hemphill, R.C. [Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (United States); Adams, J.D. [US Environmental Protection Agency (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Emergency planning for an unintended release of chemical agent from the nation`s chemical weapons stockpile should include preparation for. the period following implementation of immediate emergency response. That period -- the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage -- is the subject of this report. The report provides an overview of the role of recovery, reentry, and restoration planning in the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP), describes the transition from immediate emergency response to restoration, and analyzes the legal framework that would govern restoration activities. Social, economic, and administrative issues, as well as technical ones, need to be considered in the planning effort. Because of possible jurisdictional conflicts, appropriate federal, state, and local agencies need to be included in a coordinated planning process. Advance consideration should be given to the pertinent federal and state statutes and regulations. On the federal level, the principal statutes and regulations to be considered are those associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and the National Environmental Policy Act. This report recommends that extensive preaccident planning be undertaken for the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage and outlines several key issues that should be considered in that planning. The need for interagency cooperation and coordination at all levels of the planning process is emphasized.

  12. Does the number of parathyroid glands autotransplanted affect the incidence of hypoparathyroidism and recovery of parathyroid function?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Anping; Gong, Yanping; Wu, Wenshuang; Gong, Rixiang; Li, Zhihui; Zhu, Jingqiang

    2018-02-02

    The relationship between the number of parathyroid glands autotransplanted and hypoparathyroidism as well as recovery of parathyroid function is not understood fully. The aim was to ascertain whether the number of autotransplanted glands affected the incidence of hypoparathyroidism and recovery of parathyroid function in long-term follow-up after thyroidectomy. A retrospective cohort study included all patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma who underwent first-time total thyroidectomy with central neck dissection between June 2012 and June 2015. The patients were divided into 4 groups (0, 1, 2, and 3) on the basis of the number of parathyroid glands autotransplanted. Of the 766 patients, 283 (36.9%) had no gland autotransplanted, and 373 (48.7%), 97 (12.7%), and 13 (1.7%) had 1, 2, and 3 glands autotransplanted, respectively. More lymph nodes and more metastatic ones in the central compartment were retrieved in groups 2 and 3 (P  .05). The recovery rates of serum parathyroid hormone concentration were 84.7%, 82.2%, 82.0%, and 79.2% after 2-year follow-up (P > .05). Autotransplantation is an effective strategy for restoration of parathyroid function. Transient hypoparathyroidism is positively correlated to the number of autotransplanted parathyroid glands during total thyroidectomy with central neck dissection. There is no increase in permanent hypoparathyroidism in patients with a higher number of autotransplanted glands, despite more extensive lymph node disease. (Surgery 2018;161:XXX-XXX.). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  14. Clues from stellar catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rimoldi, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    This thesis uses catastrophic stellar events (supernovae and stellar collisions) to investigate different aspects of their environment. The first part of the thesis examines what happens to supernova remnants near supermassive black holes like the one in the Milky Way Galaxy. To do so, a technique

  15. Incidence of venous thromboembolic events in enhanced recovery after surgery for colon cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vendler, M M I; Haidari, T A; Waage, J E

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Both the Danish and the National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend prolonged thromboprophylaxis (PT) with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) for 28 days postoperatively after elective surgery for colon cancer. The evidence relies on data from two randomized clinical...... trials (RCTs) that included not only colon cancers but also other abdominal cancers or benign colorectal diseases. Neither of those studies investigated the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) under enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS). We aim to describe the risk of VTE and estimate the cost...... of preventing one case of VTE by PT under ERAS. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of 2230 patients undergoing elective surgery for colon cancer Stage I-III in the Capital Region of Denmark, 1 June 2008 to 31 December 2013. Patients who were discharged on postoperative day 28 or later, died during admission...

  16. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  17. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  18. Vivre la catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Favreau, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Le mot catastrophe a ceci d’intéressant et de pratique que l’on peut l’employer pour désigner un ensemble de situations hétéroclites, ayant pour point commun un caractère dit sensationnel, médiatiquement porteur et pour autant sans commune mesure. Une catastrophe pour les uns peut ne pas en être une pour les autres. On a ainsi pu lire dans la presse que le réchauffement climatique met en péril des populations entières que l’on nomme déjà les futurs « réfugiés climatiques » en rendant leur mil...

  19. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Emergency Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deaton JuanD

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  20. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Providing Emergency Telecommunications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton

    2008-05-01

    Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  1. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Emergency Telecommunications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan D. Deaton

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  2. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  3. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  4. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  5. Fall incidence and associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation during various stages of recovery - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Noam; Gottlieb, Amihai; Siev-Ner, Itzhak; Plotnik, Meir

    2018-03-14

    The objective of this study was to estimate fall incidence and describe associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation (LLA) during various stages of recovery: the surgical ward, in-patient rehabilitation and return to community life. A systematic search of relevant English language articles was performed using PubMed and EMBASE. Out of 310 initial "hits," six retrospective cohort studies, one prospective cohort study and eleven cross-sectional studies from which fall incidence and risk factors could be extracted, were selected for critical review. Fall incidence and associated risk factors were extracted and analyzed in the context of various clinical stages of recovery after amputation. The studies were evaluated for quality using the "Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies." Results showed that during all stages of recovery, people with a LLA are at increased risk of falling compared with able-bodied individuals, as well as other clinical populations. Each stage of recovery is associated with different fall risk factors. The current review is limited mainly by the paucity of studies on the topic. Specialised care focusing on the most relevant risk factors for each stage of recovery may enhance fall prevention during post-fall recovery. Implications for rehabilitation •  People with a lower limb amputation are at a high risk of falling in all stages of their clinical course.      •  Health professionals should be aware that people with a lower limb amputation in the first 4 years ofamputation or with four or more health-related problems are at an increased risk.      •  Health professionals should also be aware that increased gait variability, excess confidence in balance andwalking abilities and less cautious stair walking, impose an elevated risk of falling and should focus theirefforts in reducing these factors.

  6. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households

    OpenAIRE

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Background Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. Methods This study used data from the Q...

  7. Concussion in field hockey: a retrospective analysis into the incidence rates, mechanisms, symptoms and recovery of concussive injuries sustained by elite field hockey players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossiter, Michael; Challis, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To identify the incidence and mechanisms of concussion in elite Field Hockey in different age groups and also the postconcussion symptoms and recovery times. Methods Data was collected retrospectively, for both training and matches, over a 12-month period from national level Field Hockey players across under-16, under-18, under-21, Development and Senior players. Mechanism of injury (including player role and field position), postconcussive symptoms and recovery times were recorded following a semistructured interview with each player. Additional information on training hours, matches and squad size were also recorded in order to calculate the incidence per 1000 match hours. Results Of the 28 recorded cases, only 11 could be included in the study. Women had the highest incidence of concussion, with the majority being in the under-21 age group. Overall incidence varied from 3/1000 match hours in training to 0.02/1000 match hours in matches, with an overall incidence of 0–0.02/1000 match hours across all age groups. The most common mechanism of injury was collision with another player, followed by impact from a stick or ball Midfield and attacking forwards sustained the highest incidence of concussion. None of the concussed athletes wore protective headgear (there were no cases of concussion in goal keepers) and all occurred in open play rather than a penalty corner (when protective headgear is often worn). Postconcussion headaches and difficulty concentrating were the most commonly reported postconcussion symptoms. Average recovery time and return-to-play was 2–4 weeks. Conclusions Due to the low numbers, only limited conclusions can be made, but it would appear that the risk of concussion in elite Field Hockey is low. As age and skill increases, the risk decreases. Postconcussion symptoms and average return-to-play times are similar to other sports. From this study, no conclusions can be made as to the role of protective headgear to reduce the risk

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  9. Status Update on the NCRP Scientific Committee SC 5-1 Report: Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Incidents - 13450

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    2013-01-01

    In August 2008, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its final Protective Action Guide (PAG) for radiological dispersal device (RDD) and improvised nuclear device (IND) incidents. This document specifies protective actions for public health during the early and intermediate phases and cleanup guidance for the late phase of RDD or IND incidents, and it discusses approaches to implementing the necessary actions. However, while the PAG provides specific guidance for the early and intermediate phases, it prescribes no equivalent guidance for the late-phase cleanup actions. Instead, the PAG offers a general description of a complex process using a site-specific optimization approach. This approach does not predetermine cleanup levels but approaches the problem from the factors that would bear on the final agreed-on cleanup levels. Based on this approach, the decision-making process involves multifaceted considerations including public health, the environment, and the economy, as well as socio-political factors. In an effort to fully define the process and approach to be used in optimizing late-phase recovery and site restoration following an RDD or IND incident, DHS has tasked the NCRP with preparing a comprehensive report addressing all aspects of the optimization process. Preparation of the NCRP report is a three-year (2010-2013) project assigned to a scientific committee, the Scientific Committee (SC) 5-1; the report was initially titled, Approach to Optimizing Decision Making for Late- Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Terrorism Incidents. Members of SC 5-1 represent a broad range of expertise, including homeland security, health physics, risk and decision analysis, economics, environmental remediation and radioactive waste management, and communication. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and guided by a recent process led by the White House through a Principal Level Exercise (PLE), the optimization approach has since

  10. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  11. Experience of a Tertiary-Level Urology Center in the Clinical Urological Events of Rare and Very Rare Incidence. I. Surgical Never Events: 1. Urological Wrong-Surgery Catastrophes and Disabling Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadelkareem, Rabea A

    2018-02-01

    Surgical never events are preventable harmful non-intentional human errors. Urology is a common surgical specialty for their occurrence. A retrospective search of our center's data was done during the period 2006-2016 for surgical never events. Each included case was studied for the primary diagnosis, procedure, and subspecialty, never event type and timing, needed extra-interventions, urologist/procedure proportioning, outcomes, and possible underlying causes of the event. Of more than 55,000 different urological interventions, 61 patients were involved in never events. Wrong procedures represented 75% of the never events, and endourology and urolithiasis subspecialties were more often involved. The main detectable underlying factor was the disproportion between the levels of the procedure class and the qualification of the urologist (41%). Thirty-four cases had extra-procedures. The short-term harm effect represented the final outcome in 42% of all events. Death, permanent organ loss, and long-term harm represented 20, 15, and 23%, respectively. Urological surgical never events are rare, but their final outcomes could be catastrophic, even leading to death.

  12. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-11-10

    Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. This study used data from the Quality of Life National Survey conducted in Colombia in 2011. The presence of catastrophic healthcare spending was calculated using the methodology proposed by the World Health Organization in 2005. Households were classified as having catastrophic health spending when their out-of-pocket health payments were over 20 % of their payment capacity. All other households were classified as not having catastrophic health spending. A probit model was estimated aimed at determining what factors influence the probability of catastrophic healthcare spending. Study findings show that 9.6 % of Colombian households had catastrophic expenditure. The incidence was higher in households in the Pacífica and Atlántica regions, extended and nuclear families, households with children or elderly adults, located in rural areas, and not insured under the healthcare system. The ratio of household members who work seems to reduce the risk of catastrophic healthcare spending, but the occurrence of any in-patient event increases it. So, there is no statistical evidence for rejecting the hypotheses under study. Results indicate the importance of establishing intervention mechanisms in order to improve equity in access and payment for health care, protect vulnerable groups against financial risk, and, consequently, reduce the incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. For this, it is essential to achieve universal health coverage through standardized and improved health services packages for vulnerable age groups and

  13. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  14. [Abdominal catastrophe--surgeon's view].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyhnánek, F

    2010-07-01

    Abdominal catastrophe is a serious clinical condition, usually being a complication arising during treatment of intraabdominal nontraumatic disorders or abdominal injuries. Most commonly, inflamation- secondary peritonitis, is concerned. Abdominal catastrophe also includes secondary signs of sepsis, abdominal compartment syndrome and enterocutaneous fistules. Most septic abdominal disorders which show signs of abdominal catastrophy, require surgical intervention and reinterventions--planned or "on demand" laparotomies. During the postoperative period, the patient requires intensive care management, including steps taken to stabilize his/hers condition, management of sepsis and metabolic and nutritional support measures, as well as adequate indication for reoperations. New technologies aimed at prevention of complications in laparostomies and to improve conditions for final laparotomy closure are used in phase procedures for surgical management of intraabdominal infections. Despite the new technologies, abdominal catastrophe has higher morbidity and lethality risk rates.

  15. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  16. CATASTROPHIC ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME IN LEPROSY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Vaibhav Chewoolkar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to mesenteric venous thrombosis as a part of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and later on succumbed. We thereby wish to highlight the need for early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of this potentially fatal condition in patients with infections.

  17. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China: determinants and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaohong; Shen, Jay J; Lu, Jun; Wang, Ying; Sun, Mei; Li, Chengyue; Chang, Fengshui; Hao, Mo

    2013-12-05

    Much of research on household catastrophic medical expenses in China has focused on less developed areas and little is known about this problem in more developed areas. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and determinants of catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China. Data were obtained from a health care utilization and expense survey of 11,577 households conducted in eastern China in 2008. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was calculated using the method introduced by the World Health Organization. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China ranged from 9.24% to 24.79%. Incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was lower if the head of household had a higher level of education, labor insurance coverage, while the incidence was higher if they lived in rural areas, had a family member with chronic diseases, had a child younger than 5 years old, had a person at home who was at least 65 years old, and had a household member who was hospitalized. Moreover, the impact of the economic level on catastrophic medical expenses was non-linear. The poorest group had a lower incidence than that of the second lowest income group and the group with the highest income had a higher incidence than that of the second highest income group. In addition, region was a significant determinant. Reducing the incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses should be one of the priorities of health policy. It can be achieved by improving residents' health status to reduce avoidable health services such as hospitalization. It is also important to design more targeted health insurance in order to increase financial support for such vulnerable groups as the poor, chronically ill, children, and senior populations.

  19. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  20. Catastrophic fires in Russian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. I. Sukhinin; D. J. McRae; B. J. Stocks; S. G. Conard; WeiMin Hao; A. J. Soja; D. Cahoon

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the contribution of catastrophic fires to the total burned area and the amount of tree mortality in Russia since the 1970’s. Such fires occurred in the central regions of European Russia (1972, 1976, 1989, 2002, 2010), Khabarovsk krai (1976, 1988, 1998), Amur region (1997-2002), Republics of Yakutia and Tuva (2002), Magadan and Kamchatka oblast (1984, 2001...

  1. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  2. Ten-year cancer incidence in rescue/recovery workers and civilians exposed to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiehui; Brackbill, Robert M; Liao, Tim S; Qiao, Baozhen; Cone, James E; Farfel, Mark R; Hadler, James L; Kahn, Amy R; Konty, Kevin J; Stayner, Leslie T; Stellman, Steven D

    2016-09-01

    Cancer incidence in exposed rescue/recovery workers (RRWs) and civilians (non-RRWs) was previously reported through 2008. We studied occurrence of first primary cancer among World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees through 2011 using adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and the WTC-exposure-cancer association, using Cox proportional hazards models. All-cancer SIR was 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.20) in RRWs, and 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.15) in non-RRWs. Prostate cancer and skin melanoma were significantly elevated in both populations. Thyroid cancer was significantly elevated only in RRWs while breast cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were significantly elevated only in non-RRWs. There was a significant exposure dose-response for bladder cancer among RRWs, and for skin melanoma among non-RRWs. We observed excesses of total and specific cancers in both populations, although the strength of the evidence for causal relationships to WTC exposures is somewhat limited. Continued monitoring of this population is indicated. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:709-721, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. A Catastrophe in Quantum Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Ignatovich, V K

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed.

  4. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  5. Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

    2010-02-01

    On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

  6. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  7. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  8. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  9. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  10. Finding the Sweet Spot for Catastrophic Incident Search and Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    display software allows the GPS drift characteristics to be visualized and the buoys are automatically tracked by the USCG after deployment on the...computations for multiple objects were quite difficult and time consuming to map. The SAROPS program is able to quickly build a visual depiction of optimal...with SAR assets. Another high-tech SAR structure is found in the Cosmicheskaya Sistema Poiska Avariynyh Sudov56 (COSPAS-SARSAT) system. This model

  11. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  12. Crise, catastrophe, risque et adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Yiou , Pascal; Jézéquel , Aglae

    2017-01-01

    International audience; L'histoire de la Terre est jalonnée de crises et de catastrophes environnementales, qui ont conduit à la disparition d'espèces et de sociétés, et parfois à l'émergence de nouveaux systèmes. Nous ne reviendrons pas sur ces événements géologiques ou historiques, mais nous concentrons sur le changement climatique en cours et ses événements extrêmes. Du fait de l'expansion démographique, la surface habitable de la Terre est de plus en plus densément peuplée, ce qui augment...

  13. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  14. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  15. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  16. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  17. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  18. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-10-29

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC.

  19. Lessons from Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    we are more likely to give higher value to emotional attachments within our current surroundings. So, for example, people will pay more to insure...our natural impulses. Our systems are also naturally pre- dispositioned to pay more attention to our body’s basic needs such as hunger , warmth, or...few key factors: first that the job of analytical and scientific risk information is to assist people to balance their reactive emotions in decision

  20. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

  1. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  2. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  3. Cosmic Impacts, Cosmic Catastrophes. Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    Examined is the science of catastrophism and its role in planetary and earth science. The effects of impacts on earth with extraterrestrial origins are discussed. Perspectives on the age and dynamics of the earth's crust are presented. (CW)

  4. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  5. [Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilas, Ljiljana Todorović; Bajkin, Ivana; Icin, Tijana; Paro, Jovanka Novaković; Zavisić, Branka Kovacev

    2012-01-01

    Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger a utoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction. is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consuquences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima). The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  6. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  7. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  8. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  9. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  10. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  11. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  12. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  13. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  14. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  15. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...... of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...

  16. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  17. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

    2015-05-01

    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  18. Business continuity in blood services: two case studies from events with potentially catastrophic effect on the national provision of blood components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, S J; Rackham, R A; Penny, S; Lawson, J R; Walsh, R J; Ismay, S L

    2015-02-01

    NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) and the Australian Red Cross Blood Service (ARCBS) are national blood establishments providing blood components to England and North Wales, and Australia, respectively. In 2012, both services experienced potentially catastrophic challenges to key assets. NHSBT suffered a flood that closed the largest blood-manufacturing centre in Europe, whilst ARCBS experienced the failure of a data centre network switch that rendered the national blood management system inaccessible for 42 h. This paper describes both crisis events, including the immediate actions, recovery procedures and lessons learned. Both incidents triggered emergency response plans. These included hospital reprovisioning and recovery from the incident. Once normal services had been restored, both events were subjected to root cause analysis (RCA) and production of 'lessons learned' reports. In both scenarios, the key enablers of rapid recovery were established emergency plans, clear leadership and the support of a flexible workforce. Product issues to hospitals were unaffected, and there were no abnormal trends in hospital complaints. RCA identified the importance of risk mitigations that require co-operation with external organizations. Reviews of both events identified opportunities to enhance business resilience through prior identification of external risks and improvements to contingency plans, for example by implementing mass messaging to staff and other stakeholders. Blood establishment emergency plans tend to focus on responding to mass casualty events. However, consolidation of manufacturing to fewer sites combined with a reliance on national IT systems increases the impact of loss of function. Blood services should develop business continuity plans which include prevention of such losses, and the maintenance of services and disaster recovery. © 2014 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  19. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  20. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  1. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  2. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic

  3. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  4. Preventing catastrophes in spatially extended systems through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Further, we outline our analysis on the possible mechanisms behind the occurrence of catastrophes and how the ... The equation has also been utilized in seismology to model the two plates in a geological fault [4]. .... now the central results obtained from our extensive numerical simulations [7]. 3. Spatiotemporal patterns in ...

  5. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  6. What Is the Price of Catastrophic Wildfire?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; Thomas P. Holmes

    2001-01-01

    We modeled and analyzed the economic impacts of the six weeks of large, catastrophic wild-fires in northeastern Florida in June and July 1998, among Florida's most devastating in recent history. The result of the unusually strong El Níño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1998, the Florida wildfires produced economic impacts of at least $600 million, similar in...

  7. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    ... Management Agency, United States Department of Agriculture, Beacon Facility, Stop 0812, Room 421, P.O. Box... 12866 The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has determined that this rule is not-significant for the... is definite, and whether ACRSI will be implemented before the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  8. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    up to the present time. Available information should be presented in a form suitable for perception by wide public. Different categories of population (children, workers of various professional groups, pensioners) need practical consultations and recommendations on how to provide safe life conditions. For almost 15 years passed after the Chernobyl catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. Moreover, there is a tendency for understatement of the catastrophe consequences, bringing it down to the ordinary NPP incident. At the same time the radioecological, medico-biological, socio-psychological, economic and other Chernobyl consequences show that the problems born by the Chernobyl catastrophe on April 26, 1986 will remain actual for long. The unique situation as a result of the Chernobyl NPP accident must be used completely for improving the knowledge about the possible consequences of the similar catastrophes, for investigation and accumulation of experience of practical realisation of protection measures complex under the conditions of large-scale radioactive contamination of the territory. It creates good prerequisites for effective and mutually beneficial international co-operation on overcoming of the catastrophe consequences

  9. Technological catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, V.

    2000-01-01

    The mankind energy demands are expected to be in 2050 more than twice of present level. But a World Conference on Environment in Kyoto is expressed the concern about the releases of greenhouses gases which could cause the climate changes. Accordingly the contamination of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is becoming of an urgent problem of our civilisation. Obviously a nuclear energy is assumed to be a main aid of solving such energy problem. But everybody knows the society is in a conflict situation- there is a powerful movement of 'green' forces against the nuclear power. Some people are trying firmly to stop or even to ban the development of the nuclear power in some countries. An analysis of the ground causes of such social phenomenon as anti-nuclear movement can assist us in its management and future actions for development of nuclear power. It is possible to distinguish economical, social, scientific roots of nuclear opposition. Role of mass media in development of the public anti-nuclear mood is very important. Nobody doubts that a public acceptance is a key point for future nuclear energy. Recent anti-nuclear problems can be solved by calm confident interaction with public, by careful substitution of old troublesome image of the nuclear power on view of modem controllable technology with high level of safety and protection of environment. In such actions very important to convince of public that the such modem requirements of the nuclear safety as - no large radioactive release, no emergency evacuation, no permanent relocation of population, no restrictions on food consumption- are implemented in the correspondent design decisions based on defence-in-depth concept. And everybody have to know that in the case of any operational incident all consequences of disturbances will be mitigated and real risks will be scornful small. Problem of the plants decommissioning is a very serious. But it has to be solved on the base of optimisation of money expenses and

  10. Changes in catastrophic health expenditure in post-conflict Sierra Leone: an Oaxaca-blinder decomposition analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edoka, Ijeoma; McPake, Barbara; Ensor, Tim; Amara, Rogers; Edem-Hotah, Joseph

    2017-09-04

    At the end of the eleven-year conflict in Sierra Leone, a wide range of policies were implemented to address both demand- and supply-side constraints within the healthcare system, which had collapsed during the conflict. This study examines the extent to which households' exposure to financial risks associated with seeking healthcare evolved in post-conflict Sierra Leone. This study uses the 2003 and 2011 cross-sections of the Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey to examine changes in catastrophic health expenditure between 2003 and 2011. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach is used to quantify the extent to which changes in catastrophic health expenditure are attributable to changes in the distribution of determinants (distributional effect) and to changes in the impact of these determinants on the probability of incurring catastrophic health expenditure (coefficient effect). The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure decreased significantly by 18% from approximately 50% in 2003 t0 32% in 2011. The decomposition analysis shows that this decrease represents net effects attributable to the distributional and coefficient effects of three determinants of catastrophic health expenditure - ill-health, the region in which households reside and the type of health facility used. A decrease in the incidence of ill-health and changes in the regional location of households contributed to a decrease in catastrophic health expenditure. The distributional effect of health facility types observed as an increase in the use of public health facilities, and a decrease in the use of services in facilities owned by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) also contributed to a decrease in the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure. However, the coefficient effect of public health facilities and NGO-owned facilities suggests that substantial exposure to financial risk remained for households utilizing both types of health facilities in 2011. The findings support the

  11. Personality and Temperament Correlates of Pain Catastrophizing in Young Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Anja; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of…

  12. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  13. Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2004-01-01

    Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

  14. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  15. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  16. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

    2015-07-01

    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  17. Synchronizing Federal Operational Planning for National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    overwhelm human capacity. A developing genre is developing in the literature that advocates the shift from interagency planning to multi-sector...catastrophe absorbed these resources as if there was no end; everyone watched the response effort on TV and witnessed the level of confusion and...in Katrina. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38 (4), 692–714. Bongar, B., Brown, L. M., Beutler, L. E., Breckenridge, J. N., & Zimbardo, P. G

  18. Catastrophe risks: the case of seisms

    OpenAIRE

    Kast, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Catastrophes and risks have had a great influence on the evolution of human development. We analyze behaviors in front of risks, then we consider some basic principles that have guided private and public behaviors. Managing risks has become a specialty for finance and insurance, but they are not the only institutions that allow to confront them. We conclude on an example of how public funds, private insurance and reinsurance companies can work together and use financial markets...

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  20. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  1. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  2. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  3. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  4. Catastrophizing and poor sleep quality in early adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noone, Deirdre M; Willis, Thomas A; Cox, Jenny; Harkness, Frances; Ogilvie, Jayne; Forbes, Erika; Sterr, Annette; Gregory, Alice M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness has been investigated in adults and children, but little is known about adolescents. This article aimed to (a) investigate whether early adolescent girls catastrophized about consequences of sleeplessness, (b) describe topics in catastrophizing sequences, (c) examine the association between sleep quality and catastrophizing, and (d) assess whether puberty moderated this association. Girls (n = 115) between 11 and 12 years old completed adapted versions of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Pubertal Developmental Scale, and the Catastrophizing Interview. Twenty-four (21%) participants produced catastrophizing sequences, including concerns about school and mood. Sleep quality was associated with catastrophizing (β = 0.19, p = .042); however, puberty did not moderate this association (β = 0.15, p = .126). Findings highlight the importance of sleep-related cognitions in adolescent girls.

  5. Catastrophic injuries in pole vaulters: a prospective 9-year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P; Boden, Matthew G; Peter, Rebecca G; Mueller, Fred O; Johnson, Jan E

    2012-07-01

    A prior review of catastrophic pole vaulting injuries from 1982 through 1998 revealed an average of 2.0 injuries per year, with 69% (1.38 per year) of the injuries secondary to athletes landing off the sides or back of the landing pad and 25% (0.5 per year) from athletes landing in the vault box. In 2003, several rule changes for the sport of pole vaulting were mandated, including enlarging the minimum dimensions of the landing pad. Our goals were to (1) identify the post-2003 rule change incidence and profile of catastrophic pole vaulting injuries through 2011 and compare them, where possible, with the prior incidence and profile and (2) determine, via a questionnaire, the frequency with which pole vaulters land in the vault box. We hypothesized that the new, larger landing pads would reduce the number of catastrophic injuries. Descriptive epidemiology study. We prospectively reviewed all catastrophic pole vaulting injuries (ie, brain hemorrhage; skull, spine, or pelvic fracture; substantial pulmonary or intra-abdominal injury) in the United States from 2003 through 2011, surveyed 3335 pole vaulters to determine the frequency of landing in the vault box, and compared results with those in the literature. From 2003 to 2011, 19 catastrophic injuries occurred (average of 2.1 per year), with the majority (n = 14, 74%, 1.55 per year) landing in or around the vault box. Four (21%, 0.44 per year) injuries occurred when an athlete landed off the sides or back of the landing pad and 1 (5%) when the pole broke. There were 11 (58%) major head injuries (1 fatality), 4 (21%) spine fractures (1 with paraplegia), 2 (11%) pelvic fractures (both with intra-abdominal injuries), 1 (5%) brain stem injury (fatal), and 1 (5%) thoracic injury (rib fractures and pneumothorax). The annual fatality rate fell from 1.0 in the prior study to 0.22 in the current study. According to the pole vaulters survey, during their careers, 77.12% (n = 2572) landed in the vault box 1 to 3 times, 15.92% (n

  6. Factors that determine catastrophic expenditure for tuberculosis care: a patient survey in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chengchao; Long, Qian; Chen, Jiaying; Xiang, Li; Li, Qiang; Tang, Shenglan; Huang, Fei; Sun, Qiang; Lucas, Henry

    2016-01-25

    Tuberculosis (TB) often causes catastrophic economic effects on both the individual suffering the disease and their households. A number of studies have analyzed patient and household expenditure on TB care, but there does not appear to be any that have assessed the incidence, intensity and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) relating to TB care in China. That will be the objective of this paper. The data used for this study were derived from the baseline survey of the China Government - Gates Foundation TB Phase II program. Our analysis included 747 TB cases. Catastrophic health expenditure for TB care was estimated using two approaches, with households defined as experiencing CHE if their annual expenditure on TB care: (a) exceeded 10 % of total household income; and (b) exceeded 40 % of their non-food expenditure (capacity to pay). Chi-square tests were used to identify associated factors and logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of CHE. The incidence of CHE was 66.8 % using the household income measure and 54.7 % using non-food expenditure (capacity to pay). An inverse association was observed between CHE rates and household income level. Significant determinants of CHE were: age, household size, employment status, health insurance status, patient income as a percentage of total household income, hospitalization and status as a minimum living security household. Factors including gender, marital status and type of TB case had no significant associations with CHE. Catastrophic health expenditure incidence from TB care is high in China. An integrated policy expanding the free treatment package and ensuring universal coverage, especially the height of UHC for TB patients, is needed. Financial and social protection interventions are essential for identified at-risk groups.

  7. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  8. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-08

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  9. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  10. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  11. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  12. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals : Stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that

  13. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  14. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  15. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  16. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident; Recuperacion de hojuelas de Iridio-192 provenientes de una fuente radiactivas de uso industrial despues de un incidente radiologico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cruz, W.H.; Zapata, L.A., E-mail: wcruz@ipen.gob.pe, E-mail: lzapata@ipen.gob.pe [Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear (GRRA/IPEN), Lima (Peru). Division de Gestion de Residuos Radiactivos

    2013-07-01

    The Iridium-192 ({sup 192}Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m{sup 2}, some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  17. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  18. Iranian Household Financial Protection against Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadam, M Nekoei; Banshi, M; Javar, M Akbari; Amiresmaili, M; Ganjavi, S

    2012-01-01

    Background: Protecting households against financial risks is one of objectives of any health system. In this regard, Iran’s fourth five year developmental plan act in its 90th article, articulated decreasing household’s exposure to catastrophic health expenditure to one percent. Hence, this study aimed to measure percentage of Iranian households exposed to catastrophic health expenditures and to explore its determinants. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was carried out retrospectively. Households whose financial contributions to the health system exceeded 40% of disposable income were considered as exposed to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare expenditures were examined by logistic regression and chi-square test. Results: Of 39,088 households, 80 were excluded due to absence of food expenditures. 2.8% of households were exposed to catastrophic health expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare were utilizing ambulatory, hospital, and drug addiction cessation services as well as consuming pharmaceuticals. Socioeconomics characteristics such as health insurance coverage, household size, and economic status were other determinants of exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Conclusion: Iranian health system has not achieved the objective of reducing catastrophic healthcare expenditure to one percent. Inefficient health insurance coverage, different fee schedules practiced by private and public providers, failure of referral system are considered as probable barriers toward decreasing households’ exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. PMID:23193508

  19. Traffic incident management resource management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The necessity of a multi-disciplinary approach involving law enforcement, fire and rescue, transportation, towing and recovery, and others has been well-recognized and integrated into incident management operations. This same multidisciplinar...

  20. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  1. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: The current management approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-04-01

    The current recommendation for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) management is the standard triple therapy with anticoagulation (AC), glucocorticoids (GCs), plasma exchange (PE), and/or intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs). Of note, only AC has a significant effect on the prognosis of these patients. However, from the experimental or basic point of view, there is only indirect evidence to advocate the use of these immunomodulatory therapies (GC, PE, and IVIG) in CAPS. Recently, there have been reports of severe or refractory CAPS patients treated with the monoclonal antibodies rituximab and eculizumab. The first blocks CD20, a surface protein expressed on the cytoplasmic membrane of B cells, and decreases the generation of pathogenic autoantibodies such as antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. The second binds with high affinity to C5 complement protein, inhibiting its cleavage and thus preventing the generation of C5b-C9 complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    individual tubulin dimers, an ignored. In this cap model, GTP hydrolysis is assumed to be stochastic and uncoupled to microtubule growth. Different rates of hydrolysis are assumed for GTP in the cap's interior and for GTP at its boundary with hydrolyzed parts of the microtubule. Expectation values...... and probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... of microtubule growth before dilution. The GTP content of microtubules is found and its rare of hydrolysis is determined under the circumstances created in an experiment designed to measure this GTP content. It is concluded that this experiment's failure to register any GTP content is consistent with the model...

  3. The asteroids as outcomes of catastrophic collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farinella, P. (Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Merate, Italy); Paolicchi, P.

    1982-12-01

    The role of catastrophic collisions in the evoloution of the asteroids is discussed in detail, employing extrapolations of experimental results on the outcome of high velocity-impacts. The probability of impacts with a given projectile-to-target mass ratio for asteroids of different sizes is derived, taking into account different mass distributions of the asteroid population at the beginning of the collision process. The extrapolations show that collisional breakup against solid-state cohesions must be a widespread process for asteroids. The influence of self-gravitation and transfer of angular momentum during collision is shown to depend strongly on the traget size, resulting in a variety of possible outcomes in the intermediate size range. Comparason of the theoretical results with observations of asteroid rotations and shapes yields favorable results.

  4. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  5. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso

    2016-12-01

    To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. Descrever a magnitude do gasto catastrófico em medicamentos no Brasil segundo região, tamanho das famílias e composição familiar em termos de moradores em situação de dependência. Utilizados dados de inqu

  6. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  7. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle

  8. Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bixenstine, Paul J; Shore, Andrew D; Mehtsun, Winta T; Ibrahim, Andrew M; Freischlag, Julie A; Makary, Martin A

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts, $1 million or greater, greatly influence physicians' practice, hospital policy, and discussions of healthcare reform. However, little is known about the specific characteristics and overall cost burden of these payouts. We reviewed all paid malpractice claims nationwide using the National Practitioner Data Bank over a 7-year period (2004-2010) and used multivariate regression to identify risk factors for catastrophic and increased overall payouts. Claims with catastrophic payouts represented 7.9% (6,130/77,621) of all paid claims. Factors most associated with catastrophic payouts were patient age less than 1 year; quadriplegia, brain damage, or lifelong care; and anesthesia allegation group. Compared with court judgments, settlement was associated with decreased odds of a catastrophic payout (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.42) and lower estimated average payouts ($124,863; 95% CI, $101,509-144,992). A physician's years in practice and previous paid claims history had no effect on the odds of a catastrophic payout. Catastrophic payouts averaged $1.4 billion per year or 0.05% of the National Health Expenditures. Preventing catastrophic malpractice payouts should be only one aspect of comprehensive patient safety and quality improvement strategies. Future studies should evaluate the benefits of targeted interventions based on specific patient safety event characteristics. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  9. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

    2005-01-01

    To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

  10. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  11. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  12. Does User Fee Removal Policy Provide Financial Protection from Catastrophic Health Care Payments? Evidence from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Masiye

    Full Text Available Out-of-pocket payments in health care have been shown to impose significant burden on households in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to constrained access to health care and impoverishment. In an effort to reduce the financial burden imposed on households by user fees, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have abolished user fees in the health sector. Zambia is one of few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to abolish user fees in primary health care facilities with a view to alleviating financial burden of out-of-pocket payments among the poor. The main aim of this paper was to examine the extent and patterns of financial protection from fees following the decision to abolish user fees in public primary health facilities.Our analysis is based on a nationally representative health expenditure and utilization survey conducted in 2014. We calculated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure based on households' out-of-pocket payments during a visit as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure. We further show the intensity of the problem of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE experienced by households.Our analysis show that following the removal of user fees, a majority of patients who visited public health facilities benefitted from free care at the point of use. Further, seeking care at public primary health facilities is associated with a reduced likelihood of incurring CHE after controlling for economic wellbeing and other covariates. However, 10% of households are shown to suffer financial catastrophe as a result of out-of-pocket payments. Further, there is considerable inequality in the incidence of CHE whereby the poorest expenditure quintile experienced a much higher incidence.Despite the removal of user fees at primary health care level, CHE is high among the poorest sections of the population. This study also shows that cost of transportation is mainly responsible for limiting the protective effectiveness of

  13. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  14. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  15. The effect of new cooperative medical scheme on health outcomes and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure in China: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xiaoyun; Guo, Hong; Jin, Chenggang; Peng, Xiaoxia; Zhang, Xiulan

    2012-01-01

    In 2002, the Chinese government launched a new rural health financing policy to provide health insurance (New Cooperative Medical Scheme, NCMS) for its rural population. NCMS, jointly financed by governments and individual households, aims to protect households from impoverishment due to catastrophic health expenditure. In 2011, NCMS covered more than 96% of the rural population. We have systematically searched and reviewed available evidence to estimate the effects of NCMS on health outcomes and on alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. PubMed, Web of Science with Conference Proceedings, ProQuest Digital Dissertations, CMCI, CNKI, and VIP were searched. We also obtained literature from colleague communications. Quasi-experimental studies regarding the effect of NCMS on health outcomes and catastrophic health expenditure were included. Two independent reviewers screened the literature, extracted the data, and assessed the study quality. Fifteen studies out of the 6123 studies in the literature fulfilled criteria and were included in this review. Twelve studies identified the relationship between NCMS and health outcomes, among which six studies measured sickness or injury in the past four weeks, four measured sickness or injury in the past two weeks, and five measured self-reported health status. Four studies focused on the relationship between NCMS and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. However, the results from these studies were in conflict: individual studies indicated that NCMS had positive, negative, or no effect on health outcomes and/or the incidence of catastrophic health payments, respectively. We still have no clear evidence that NCMS improves the health outcomes and decreases the alleviating catastrophic health expenditure of the China's rural population. In addition, the heterogeneity among individual studies reminds us that provider payment method reforms, benefit package and information systems around NCMS should be improved in the

  16. The effect of new cooperative medical scheme on health outcomes and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure in China: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyun Liang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In 2002, the Chinese government launched a new rural health financing policy to provide health insurance (New Cooperative Medical Scheme, NCMS for its rural population. NCMS, jointly financed by governments and individual households, aims to protect households from impoverishment due to catastrophic health expenditure. In 2011, NCMS covered more than 96% of the rural population. We have systematically searched and reviewed available evidence to estimate the effects of NCMS on health outcomes and on alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science with Conference Proceedings, ProQuest Digital Dissertations, CMCI, CNKI, and VIP were searched. We also obtained literature from colleague communications. Quasi-experimental studies regarding the effect of NCMS on health outcomes and catastrophic health expenditure were included. Two independent reviewers screened the literature, extracted the data, and assessed the study quality. RESULTS: Fifteen studies out of the 6123 studies in the literature fulfilled criteria and were included in this review. Twelve studies identified the relationship between NCMS and health outcomes, among which six studies measured sickness or injury in the past four weeks, four measured sickness or injury in the past two weeks, and five measured self-reported health status. Four studies focused on the relationship between NCMS and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. However, the results from these studies were in conflict: individual studies indicated that NCMS had positive, negative, or no effect on health outcomes and/or the incidence of catastrophic health payments, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We still have no clear evidence that NCMS improves the health outcomes and decreases the alleviating catastrophic health expenditure of the China's rural population. In addition, the heterogeneity among individual studies reminds us that provider payment method reforms, benefit package

  17. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  18. [Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aracena-Genao, Belkis; González-Robledo, María Cecilia; González-Robledo, Luz María; Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Nigenda-López, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    To document the status of operational and managerial processes of the Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses (FPGC), as well as to describe its evolution, and to explore the relationship between covered diseases and the Mexican health profile. This is a joint management study, which included a qualitative and a quantitative phase. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants. We also analyzed the records of CNPSS, the hospital discharge and mortality data bases. Fifty two percent of the states take twice as long to report and validate the cases. From 2004-2009 the FPGC increased its coverage from 6 to 49 interventions, that means a spending increase of 2 306.4% in nominal terms and 1 659.3% in real terms. The HIV/AIDS was the intervention prioritized with 39.3% and Mexico City had the highest proportion of expenditure (25.1%). A few diseases included in the health profile are covered by the FPGC. The review of the inclusion criteria of diseases is urgent, so as to cover diseases of epidemiological importance.

  19. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  20. Radiation protection aspects of the incident recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tibor, Bujtas; Arpad, Nenyei

    2006-01-01

    On the 10. April 2003 a serious accident occurred at PAKS nuclear power plant. The cleaning of fuel assemblies unloaded from the reactor of unit 2 was commencing under water in the fuel-cleaning equipment in the maintenance shaft number 1. There was no chain reaction in the cleaning tank but the fission products, accumulated in the previous operational time still produced a significant heat. Due to the inadequate cooling of the cleaning tank the assemblies overheated within a few hours. After opening the lid of the tank the entering cold water caused thermal shock and significant damage to the fuel assemblies. cladding of the fuel elements opened up and the uranium dioxide pellets got also damaged. The removal of the damaged fuel assemblies and the released debris must be managed. There are technical difficulties and radiation protection problems to reduce the radiation exposure of the workers as well as the minimization of the radioactive materials released into the environment. The description of the situation and the different actions are detailed. (N.C.)

  1. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  2. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  3. An Update on Football Deaths and Catastrophic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.; Blyth, Carl S.

    1986-01-01

    The latest figures (1985) indicate a continued decline in football deaths and catastrophic injuries, which is credited to a ban on spearing and to a helmet standard. Guidelines for prevention of fatalities and injuries are listed. (Author/MT)

  4. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  5. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Liang, Xiangzhou

    2017-05-09

    This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε ₀ exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of -1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  6. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  7. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Koppel, van de J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to

  8. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  9. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  10. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky; Dmitry S. Lukin; Sergey V. Rogachev

    2015-01-01

    The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of spec...

  11. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  12. Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

    2016-12-01

    Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  14. Use of G-CSF to hasten neutrophil recovery after auto-SCT for AML is not associated with increased relapse incidence: a report from the Acute Leukemia Working Party of the EBMT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerw, T; Labopin, M; Gorin, N-C; Giebel, S; Blaise, D; Dumas, P-Y; Foa, R; Attal, M; Schaap, N; Michallet, M; Bonmati, C; Veelken, H; Mohty, M

    2014-07-01

    Application of G-CSF in AML is controversial as leukemic blasts may express receptors interacting with the cytokine, which may stimulate leukemia growth. We retrospectively analyzed the impact of G-CSF use to accelerate neutrophil recovery after auto-SCT on outcome. Adults with AML in first CR autografted between 1994 and 2010 were included. Nine hundred and seventy two patients were treated with G-CSF after auto-SCT whereas 1121 were not. BM and PB were used as a source of stem cells in 454 (22%) and 1639 (78%) cases, respectively. The incidence of relapse at 5 years in the BM-auto-SCT group was 38% for patients receiving post-transplant G-CSF and 43% for those not treated with G-CSF, P=0.46. In the PB-auto-SCT cohort, respective probabilities were 48% and 49%, P=0.49. No impact of the use of G-CSF could be demonstrated with respect to the probability of leukemia-free survival: in the BM-auto-SCT group, 51% for G-CSF(+) and 48% for G-CSF(-), P=0.73; in PB-auto-SCT group, 42% for G-CSF(+) and 43% for G-CSF(-), P=0.83. Although G-CSF administration significantly shortened the neutropenic phase, no beneficial effect was observed with regard to non-relapse mortality. In patients with AML, the use of G-CSF after auto-SCT is not associated with increased risk of relapse irrespective of the source of stem cells used.

  15. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  16. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  17. Resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) in the pre-hospital setting: An additional resuscitation option for uncontrolled catastrophic haemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadek, Samy; Lockey, David J; Lendrum, Robbie A; Perkins, Zane; Price, Jonathan; Davies, Gareth Edward

    2016-10-01

    This report describes the first use of Resuscitative Endovascular Balloon Occlusion of the Aorta (REBOA) in the pre-hospital setting to control catastrophic haemorrhage. The patient, who had fallen 15 meters, suffered catastrophic internal haemorrhage associated with a pelvic fracture. He was treated by London's Air Ambulance's Physician-Paramedic team. This included insertion of a REBOA balloon catheter at the scene to control likely fatal exsanguination. The patient survived transfer to hospital, emergency angio-embolization and subsequent surgery. He was discharged neurologically normal after 52 days and went on to make a full recovery. The poor prognosis in catastrophic torso haemorrhage and novel endovascular methods of haemorrhage control are discussed. Also the challenges of Pre-Hospital REBOA are discussed together with the training and governance required for a safe system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the economic burden of illness for tuberculosis patients in Benin: determinants and consequences of catastrophic health expenditures and inequities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laokri, Samia; Dramaix-Wilmet, Michèle; Kassa, Ferdinand; Anagonou, Séverin; Dujardin, Bruno

    2014-10-01

    To inform policy-making, we measured the risk, causes and consequences of catastrophic expenditures for tuberculosis and investigated potential inequities. Between August 2008 and February 2009, a cross-sectional study was conducted among all (245) smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of six health districts from southern Benin. A standardised survey questionnaire covered the period of time elapsing from onset of tuberculosis symptoms to completion of treatment. Total direct cost exceeding the conventional 10% threshold of annual income was defined as catastrophic and used as principal outcome in a multivariable logistic regression. A sensitivity analysis was performed while varying the thresholds. A pure gradient of direct costs of tuberculosis in relation to income was observed. Incidence (78.1%) and intensity (14.8%) of catastrophic expenditure were high; varying thresholds was insensitive to the intensity. Incurring catastrophic expenditure was independently associated with lower- and middle-income quintiles (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 36.2, 95% CI [12.3-106.3] and aOR = 6.4 [2.8-14.6]), adverse pre-diagnosis stage (aOR = 5.4 [2.2-13.3]) and less education (aOR = 4.1[1.9-8.7]). Households incurred important days lost due to TB, indebtedness (37.1%), dissaving (51.0%) and other coping strategies (52.7%). Catastrophic direct costs and substantial indirect and coping costs may persist under the 'free' tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment strategy, as well as inequities in financial hardship. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Disaster Debris Recovery Database - Recovery

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The US EPA Disaster Debris Recovery Database (DDRD) promotes the proper recovery, recycling, and disposal of disaster debris for emergency responders at the federal,...

  20. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  1. Wheelchair incidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drongelen AW van; Roszek B; Hilbers-Modderman ESM; Kallewaard M; Wassenaar C; LGM

    2002-01-01

    This RIVM study was performed to gain insight into wheelchair-related incidents with powered and manual wheelchairs reported to the USA FDA, the British MDA and the Dutch Center for Quality and Usability Research of Technical Aids (KBOH). The data in the databases do not indicate that incidents with

  2. Targeting the Mitotic Catastrophe Signaling Pathway in Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mc Gee, Margaret M.

    2015-01-01

    Mitotic catastrophe, as defined in 2012 by the International Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death, is a bona fide intrinsic oncosuppressive mechanism that senses mitotic failure and responds by driving a cell to an irreversible antiproliferative fate of death or senescence. Thus, failed mitotic catastrophe can promote the unrestrained growth of defective cells, thereby representing a major gateway to tumour development. Furthermore, the activation of mitotic catastrophe offers significant therapeutic advantage which has been exploited in the action of conventional and targeted anticancer agents. Yet, despite its importance in tumour prevention and treatment, the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe is not well understood. A better understanding of the signals that determine cell fate following failed or defective mitosis will reveal new opportunities to selectively target and enhance the programme for therapeutic benefit and reveal biomarkers to predict patient response. This review is focused on the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe induction and signalling and highlights current strategies to exploit the process in cancer therapy. PMID:26491220

  3. Protecting patients with cardiovascular diseases from catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment by health finance reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jing; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan; Fan, Yancun; McNeil, Edward

    2015-12-01

    To compare the incidences of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment, the risk protection offered by two health financial reforms and to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014 in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Patients with CVDs aged over 18 years residing in the sample areas for at least one year were eligible. The definitions of CHE and impoverishment recommended by WHO were adopted. The protection of CHE and impoverishment was compared between the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) alone and NCMS plus National Essential Medicines Scheme (NEMS) using the percentage change of incidences for CHE and impoverishment. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment. The incidences of CHE and impoverishment under NCMS plus NEMS were 11.26% and 3.30%, respectively, which were lower than those under NCMS alone. The rates of protection were higher among households with patients with CVDs covered by NCMS plus NEMS (25.68% and 34.65%, respectively). NCMS plus NEMS could protect the poor households more from CHE but not impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS protected more than one-fourth of households from CHE and more than one-third from impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS was more effective at protecting households with patients with CVDs from CHE and impoverishment than NCMS alone. An integration of NCMS with NEMS should be expanded. However, further strategies to minimise catastrophic health expenditure after this health finance reform are still needed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  5. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  6. Catastrophic Senescence of the Pacific Salmon Without Mutation-Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    We derive catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon from an aging model which was recently proposed by Stauffer. The model is based on the postulates of a minimum reproduction age and a maximal genetic lifespan. It allows for self-organization of a typical age of first reproduction and a typical age of death. Our Monte Carlo simulations of the population dynamics show that the model leads to catastrophic senescence for semelparous reproduction as it occurs in the case of salmon, to a more gradually increase of senescence for iteroparous reproduction.

  7. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  8. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  9. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  10. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roda, M.; Kleinhans, M.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/217675123; Zegers, T.E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/155390562; Oosthoek, J.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios

  11. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  12. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  13. Generalized Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov Jensen, Christian; Lando, David; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    of Ross (2015). Our characterization is simple and intuitive, linking recovery to the relation between the number of time periods on the number of states. When recovery is feasible, our model is easy to implement, allowing a closed-form linearized solution. We implement our model empirically, testing...... the predictive power of the recovered expected return, crash risk, and other recovered statistics....

  14. Backup & Recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Preston, W

    2009-01-01

    Packed with practical, freely available backup and recovery solutions for Unix, Linux, Windows, and Mac OS X systems -- as well as various databases -- this new guide is a complete overhaul of Unix Backup & Recovery by the same author, now revised and expanded with over 75% new material.

  15. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.

    1996-01-01

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  16. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Combined social and private health insurance versus catastrophic out of pocket payments for private hospital care in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorakis, Nikolaos; Floros, Christos; Tsangari, Haritini; Tsoukatos, Evangelos

    2017-01-03

    The high level of out of pocket (OOP) payments constitutes a major concern for Greece and several other European and OECD countries as a result of the significant down turning of their public health finances due to the 2008 financial crisis. The basic objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the effect of combining social health insurance (SHI) and private health insurance (PHI) on OOP payments. Further, this study examines the catastrophic impact of OOP payments on insured's welfare using the incidence and intensity methodological approach of measuring catastrophic health care expenditures. Conducting a cross-sectional survey in Greece in 2013, we find that the combination of SHI-PHI has a strong negative influence on insured OOP payments for inpatient health care in private hospitals. Furthermore, our results indicate that SHI coverage is not sufficient by itself to manage with this issue. Moreover, we find that poor people present a greater tendency to incur catastrophic OOP expenditures for hospital health care in private providers. Drawing evidence from Greece, a country with huge fiscal problems that has suffered the consequences of the economic crisis more than any other, could be a starting point for policymakers to consider the perspective of SHI-PHI co-operation against OOP payments more seriously.

  18. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  19. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  20. Macroinvertebrate assemblage recovery following a catastrophic flood and debris flows in an Appalachian mountain stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, C.D.; Johnson, Z.B.

    2006-01-01

    In June 1995, heavy rains caused severe flooding and massive debris flows on the Staunton River, a 3rd-order stream in the Blue Ridge Mountains (Virginia, USA). Scouring caused the loss of the riparian zone and repositioned the stream channel of the lower 2.1 km of the stream. Between 1998 and 2001, we conducted seasonal macroinvertebrate surveys at sites on the Staunton River and on White Oak Canyon Run, a reference stream of similar size and geology that was relatively unaffected by the flood. Our study was designed to determine the extent to which flood-induced changes to the stream channel and riparian habitats caused long-term changes to macroinvertebrate community structure and composition. Sites within the impacted zone of the Staunton River supported diverse stable benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages 3 y after the flood despite dramatic and persistent changes in environmental factors known to be important controls on stream ecosystem function. However, significant differences in total macroinvertebrate density and trophic structure could be attributed to the flood. In autumn, densities of most feeding guilds, including shredders, were higher at impacted-zone sites than at all other sites, suggesting higher overall productivity in the impacted zone. Higher shredder density in the impacted zone was surprising in light of expected decreases in leaf-litter inputs because of removal of riparian forests. In contrast, in spring, we observed density differences in only one feeding guild, scrapers, which showed higher densities at impacted-zone sites than at all other sites. This result conformed to a priori expectations that reduced shading in the impacted zone would lead to increased light and higher instream primary production. We attribute the seasonal differences in trophic structure to the effects of increased temperatures on food quality and to the relationship between the timing of our sampling and the emergence patterns of important taxa. ?? 2006 by The North American Benthological Society.

  1. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247...) ``providing an assessment of the current state of the market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United... appropriate and available, regarding natural catastrophes and the current state of the market for insurance...

  2. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  3. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  4. Catastrophic biaxial proximal sesamoid bone fractures in UK Thoroughbred races (1999-2004): horse characteristics and racing history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, M; Parkin, T D H; Singer, E R

    2010-07-01

    Catastrophic biaxial proximal sesamoid bone fractures (PSBF) have not yet been described in detail in the UK racing population. To determine the incidence and relative risk (RR) of PSBF in different types of racing in the UK; and to describe horse-level characteristics and racing histories of horses sustaining these injuries. Distal limbs were collected from all racehorses suffering catastrophic fractures during racing at all 59 racecourses in the UK, in a prospective study from February 1999 to December 2004. Post mortem investigation identified the anatomical location and type of fracture. Horse, racing history, race and racecourse details were obtained. Characteristics of the horses that sustained PSBF were described. The incidence and RR of PSBF in the different types of racing in the UK were calculated. Thirty-one horses suffered PSBF during the study period. The incidence of PSBF in all types of race was 0.63 per 10,000 starts (31/494,744). The incidence was highest in flat races on all weather surfaces (1.63 per 10,000 starts: 12/73,467; RR = 4.4 when compared to turf flat racing). Affected horses had an average age of 5.6 years and had started a mean of 28 races at the time of fracture. There is a strong association between type of racing surface and PSBF. Horses competing in flat races on all weather surfaces have an increased risk of PSBF. These fractures appear to happen in experienced horses with several starts, with few fractures occurring within the first season of racing. Further research should focus on identification of underlying pathology of these fractures. Epidemiological studies aimed at the identification of risk factors for PSBF in the UK racing population would require a large number of cases acquired over many years given the relatively low incidence of PSBF.

  5. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  6. Space power as a response to global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempsell, Mark

    2006-10-01

    Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or human activity. It has been argued that space industrialisation generally offers a response to the risks involved by this class of event and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. Space power has always been argued as the only energy generating option that avoids depletion of non-renewable resources or pollution induced problems—in particular global warming. However, there are many other potential roles for a solar power capability and the infrastructure associated with it can play in the prevention of global catastrophes and this paper examines this wider application. A very preliminary examination indicates the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) infrastructure can also support strategic defence, Near-Earth Object defence, climate modification, and major resource provision. Combined these may give the capability to deal with all the main threats to human civilisation.

  7. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  8. Catastrophic Intramedullary Abscess Caused by a Missed Congenital Dermal Sinus

    OpenAIRE

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-01-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. The...

  9. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  10. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  11. [Manfredonia (Southern Italy): a continuous catastrophe, newfound citizenship, and removal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malavasi, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This article concerns the history of Manfredonia (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), linked to the petrochemical industry owned by Eni (from 1960s to 1990s). The city suffered not only an important accident occurred in 1976 with arsenic dissemination, but also a continuous catastrophe. In the 1980s, the popular movement contributed to an improved citizenship, but also to rifts and conflicts. The petrochemical impact on community determined disruption in domestic and social relationships, divided memory, and removal.

  12. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  13. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  14. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  15. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  16. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  17. Recovery Spirituality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kurtz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A. and other secular, spiritual, and religious frameworks of long-term addiction recovery. The present paper explores the varieties of spiritual experience within A.A., with particular reference to the growth of a wing of recovery spirituality promoted within A.A. It is suggested that the essence of secular spirituality is reflected in the experience of beyond (horizontal and vertical transcendence and between (connection and mutuality and in six facets of spirituality (Release, Gratitude, Humility, Tolerance, Forgiveness, and a Sense of Being-at-home shared across religious, spiritual, and secular pathways of addiction recovery. The growing varieties of A.A. spirituality (spanning the “Christianizers” and “Seculizers” reflect A.A.’s adaptation to the larger diversification of religious experience and the growing secularization of spirituality across the cultural contexts within which A.A. is nested.

  18. The association of catastrophizing with quality-of-life outcomes in patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, LeeAnne B; Leary, Emily; Henderson, Wendy A

    2017-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a cognitive process characterized by a propensity to concentrate on and magnify the value of an actual or anticipated painful stimulus and negatively assesses one's ability to cope. Catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain-related outcomes. A cornerstone symptom of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is abdominal pain or discomfort. Also individuals with IBS have been reported to have a tendency to catastrophize. In a sample of individuals who suffer from IBS, we hypothesized that those individuals who catastrophize (catastrophizers) would have worse outcomes as compared to those who do not catastrophize (non-catastrophizers). One hundred and one adults with IBS (79% female, mean age 42 years, 97% Caucasian) were recruited from outpatient clinics and data were collected through self-report measures. Catastrophizing was measured with the catastrophizing subscale of the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, illness representations were measured with The Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R), psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory 18 (BSI-18), and health-related quality of life was measured using the Irritable Bowel Syndrome-Quality of Life (IBS-QOL) measure. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and multiple linear regression analyses were completed to describe participants, the associations of the variables of interest, and the unique relationship between psychosocial variables and HRQOL. Overall, participants reported poor HRQOL (M = 63.32, range 0-100). Catastrophizers differed significantly on IBS-QOL from non-catastrophizers (M = 48.98 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 78.53; p IPQ-R, specifically the consequences (M = 21.75 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 17.20; p < 0.001) and emotional representations (M = 20.90 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 15.43; p < 0.001). Catastrophizing was positively correlated with the consequences (r = .54; p < 0.01) and emotional

  19. Generalized Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov Jensen, Christian; Lando, David; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. Our characterization makes no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model...... of Ross (2015). Our characterization is simple and intuitive, linking recovery to the relation between the number of time periods and the number of states. When recovery is feasible, our model is easy to implement, allowing a closed-form linearized solution. We implement our model empirically, testing...

  20. Generalized Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Skov; Lando, David; Pedersen, Lasse Heje

    We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. Our characterization makes no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model...... of Ross (2015). Our characterization is simple and intuitive, linking recovery to the relation between the number of time periods on the number of states. When recovery is feasible, our model is easy to implement, allowing a closed-form linearized solution. We implement our model empirically, testing...

  1. Generalized Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Skov; Lando, David; Pedersen, Lasse Heje

    We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. We make no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model of Ross (2015......). Recovery is feasible when the number of maturities with observable prices is higher than the number of states of the economy (or the number of parameters characterizing the pricing kernel). When recovery is feasible, our model is easy to implement, allowing a closed-form linearized solution. We implement...... our model empirically, testing the predictive power of the recovered expected return and other recovered statistics....

  2. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  3. A thermal catastrophe in a resonantly heated coronal loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, P.C.H.; Kuperus, M.

    1983-01-01

    A theory for the thermal stability of hot coronal loops is presented, which is based on the resonant electrodynamic heating theory of Ionson (1982) and the evaporation/condensation scenario of Krall and Antiochos (1980). The theory predicts that gradual changes in the length of a loop or in its magnetic field strength can trigger catastrophic changes in the X-ray visibility of the loop, without the need for a change in the magnetic field topology. A natural explanation is thereby given for the observations of X-ray brightenings in loops and loop evacuations with coronal rain. (Auth.)

  4. Dissipative tunneling and orthogonality catastrophe in molecular transistors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braig, S.; Flensberg, Karsten

    2004-01-01

    of the charge on the molecule to the vibrational modes of the environment has on the I-V characteristics. We find that, for comparable characteristic length scales of the van der Waals and electrostatic interaction of the molecule with the environmental vibrational modes, the I-V characteristics...... are qualitatively changed from what one would expect from orthogonality catastrophe and develop a steplike discontinuity at the onset of conduction. For the case of very different length scales, we recover dissipation consistent with modeling the electrostatic forces as an external influence on the system comprised...

  5. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors....

  6. Catastrophic intramedullary abscess caused by a missed congenital dermal sinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-03-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. Therefore, further imaging work-up or consultation with a pediatric neurosurgeon is recommended following discovery of any atypical-looking dimples in the midline.

  7. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  8. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  9. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  10. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  11. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock - a case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieba, Bozena; Wegrzyn, Agnieszka; Mital, Andrzej; Szczepińska-Nowak, Maria; Lewicki, Lukasz; Chmielecki, Michał; Puchalski, Wiesław; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej

    2009-07-01

    A case of a 29-year-old woman 18 days after delivery with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome secondary (CAPS) due to undiagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus, leading to cardiogenic shock is reported. Laboratory evaluation revealed increased anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, antinuclear antibody and thrombocytopenia. Left ventricular ejection fraction was 20%, neurologic deficit and acute renal failure were also present. Cardiac involvement is common in CAPS, but cardiomyopathy due to microvascular thrombosis is rare. CAPS should be considered as a cause of acute heart failure in a women with systemic lupus erythematosus. In the presented case early therapy with anticoagulants, steroids, immunoglobulins and plasmaferesis was beneficial.

  12. THE CONSTITUTIONALITY REVIEW OF TRIBUTARY MATRIX RULE INCIDENCE: THE STJ UNDERSTANDING ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF UNCONSTITUTIONALITY DECLARED BY THE SUPREME COURT AND THE (IM)POSSIBILITY TO REOPENING THE TIME FOR RECOVERY TAX OVERPAYMENT

    OpenAIRE

    ANTONIO AUGUSTO BONA ALVES

    2014-01-01

    O presente trabalho de dissertação tem como objetivo a compreensão do Controle Abstrato e Concentrado de Constitucionalidade, exercido pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal via ADI e ADC, sobre a Regra Matriz de Incidência Tributária, enquanto norma geral e abstrata, bem como os efeitos deste tipo de tutela constitucional sobre as relações jurídico-tributárias fundadas na norma tributária objeto de controle. Mais especificamente, tratar-se-á da influência das decisões de mérito que ...

  13. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  14. Implementation of the National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) in the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center(FRMAC) - Emergency Phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NSTec Environmental Restoration

    2007-01-01

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive HSPD-5 requires all federal departments and agencies to adopt a National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) and use it in their individual domestic incident management and emergency prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation programs and activities, as well as in support of those actions taken to assist state and local entities. This system provides a consistent nationwide template to enable federal, state, local, and tribal governments, private-sector, and nongovernmental organizations to work together effectively and efficiently to prepare for, prevent, respond to, and recover from domestic incidents, regardless of cause, size, or complexity, including acts of catastrophic terrorism. This document identifies the operational concepts of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center's (FRMAC) implementation of the NIMS/ICS response structure under the National Response Plan (NRP). The construct identified here defines the basic response template to be tailored to the incident-specific response requirements. FRMAC's mission to facilitate interagency environmental data management, monitoring, sampling, analysis, and assessment and link this information to the planning and decision staff clearly places the FRMAC in the Planning Section. FRMAC is not a mitigating resource for radiological contamination but is present to conduct radiological impact assessment for public dose avoidance. Field monitoring is a fact-finding mission to support this effort directly. Decisions based on the assessed data will drive public protection and operational requirements. This organizational structure under NIMS is focused by the mission responsibilities and interface requirements following the premise to provide emergency responders with a flexible yet standardized structure for incident response activities. The coordination responsibilities outlined in the NRP are based on the NIMS

  15. Implementation of the National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) in the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center(FRMAC) - Emergency Phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NSTec Environmental Restoration

    2007-04-01

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive HSPD-5 requires all federal departments and agencies to adopt a National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) and use it in their individual domestic incident management and emergency prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation programs and activities, as well as in support of those actions taken to assist state and local entities. This system provides a consistent nationwide template to enable federal, state, local, and tribal governments, private-sector, and nongovernmental organizations to work together effectively and efficiently to prepare for, prevent, respond to, and recover from domestic incidents, regardless of cause, size, or complexity, including acts of catastrophic terrorism. This document identifies the operational concepts of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center's (FRMAC) implementation of the NIMS/ICS response structure under the National Response Plan (NRP). The construct identified here defines the basic response template to be tailored to the incident-specific response requirements. FRMAC's mission to facilitate interagency environmental data management, monitoring, sampling, analysis, and assessment and link this information to the planning and decision staff clearly places the FRMAC in the Planning Section. FRMAC is not a mitigating resource for radiological contamination but is present to conduct radiological impact assessment for public dose avoidance. Field monitoring is a fact-finding mission to support this effort directly. Decisions based on the assessed data will drive public protection and operational requirements. This organizational structure under NIMS is focused by the mission responsibilities and interface requirements following the premise to provide emergency responders with a flexible yet standardized structure for incident response activities. The coordination responsibilities outlined in the NRP are based on the

  16. Lower incidence of acute GVHD is associated with the rapid recovery of CD4+CD25+CD45RA+ regulatory T cells in patients who received haploidentical allografts from NIMA-mismatched donors: A retrospective (development) and prospective (validation) cohort-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Zhao, Xiang-Yu; Xu, Lan-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Hui; Han, Wei; Chen, Huan; Wang, Feng-Rong; Mo, Xiao-Dong; Zhang, Yuan-Yuan; Zhao, Xiao-Su; Y, Kong; Liua, Kai-Yan; Huang, Xiao-Jun; Yu, Xue-Zhong; Chang, Ying-Jun

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the effects of non-inherited maternal antigen (NIMA) on clinical outcomes and immune recovery, especially of regulatory T cells (Tregs), in patients who underwent unmanipulated haploidentical transplantation. A retrospective cohort (n = 57) and a prospective cohort (n = 88) were included. All patients received haploidentical allografts from sibling donors. Reconstitution of immune subsets, including Tregs, was determined using multicolor flow cytometry. In the retrospective cohort, the cumulative incidence of grades II-IV acute GVHD in patients with NIMA-mismatched donors was significantly lower than that of cases with NIPA-mismatched donors (14.8% vs. 43.30%, p = 0.018). Patients with higher percentages of CD4 + CD25 + CD45RA + T cells (naive Tregs) within CD4 + T cells recovered on day 30 (≥1.55%) experienced a significantly lower incidence of grades II-IV acute GVHD than that of cases with lower percentages of naive Tregs (<1.55%) (13.8% vs. 46.4%, p = 0.010). Multivariate analysis showed that NIMA mismatch and the percentages of naive Tregs were associated with the incidence of grades II-IV acute GVHD [ p = 0.050, and 0.031, respectively]. In the prospective cohort, the association of NIMA mismatch [HR = 0.365, 95% CI, 0.169-0.786, p = 0.010] or higher percentages of naive Tregs recovered on day 30 (≥1.55%) [HR = 0.114, 95% CI, 0.027-0.479, p = 0.003] with a lower cumulative incidence of grades II-IV acute GVHD was further demonstrated. No effects of NIMA mismatch on chronic GVHD, transplant-related mortality, relapse, disease-free survival, or overall survival were found. Our results confirmed the role of NIMA mismatch in acute GVHD and provided the first demonstration, based on clinical data, that recovered Tregs may be involved in the effects of NIMA on acute GVHD in a haploidentical transplant setting.

  17. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  18. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  19. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  20. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  1. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems.

  2. Effect of catastrophic wildfires on asthmatic outcomes in obese children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Kevin; Chen, Lie; Tse, Mabel; Zuraw, Bruce; Christiansen, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Background Air pollutants from wildfires and obesity independently exacerbate asthma, yet no study has determined the combined effects of these 2 variables on asthma outcomes. Objective To determine the effect of 2 catastrophic wildfires affecting the Southern California region (in 2003 and 2007) on several asthma outcomes in a cohort of children. Methods To investigate the association between wildfire exposure and asthma outcomes, we stratified our study population by body mass index categories (underweight, normal, overweight, and obese) and zip codes (to distinguish individuals who were closer to the fires vs farther away). The primary outcome was the prevalence of physician-dispensed short-acting β-agonist (SABAs). Secondary outcomes included the rate of emergency department visits and/or hospitalizations for asthma, the frequency of oral corticosteroid use for asthma, and number of new diagnoses of asthma. Results A total of 2,195 and 3,965 asthmatic children were analyzed as part of our retrospective cohort during the 2003 and 2007 wildfires, respectively. SABA dispensing increased the most in the obese group after the 2003 wildfires (P wildfire. Conclusion Catastrophic wildfires lead to worsening asthma outcomes, particularly in obese individuals. This study gives further evidence of a link between obesity and asthma severity and suggests that air pollutants released during wildfires can have substantial detrimental effects on asthma control. PMID:25747784

  3. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  4. Catastrophe climatique irréversible et politique de l'effet de serre

    OpenAIRE

    Sébastien ROUILLON

    2000-01-01

    This paper considers the issue of a catastrophic environmental collapse and the way one should deal with it. In the model used here, one faces the choice to cross or not a critical threshold of pollution, which consequences are a definitive destruction of some environmental characteristic. The introduced decision-rule compares the economic cost of the emission constraint, designed to avoid the catastrophe, to the damage of the catastrophic event. Depending on the order between this alternativ...

  5. State Versus Trait: Validating State Assessment of Child and Parental Catastrophic Thinking About Children's Acute Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Hannah; Birnie, Kathryn A; Noel, Melanie; Vervoort, Tine; Goubert, Liesbet; Boerner, Katelynn E; Chambers, Christine T; Caes, Line

    2017-04-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as one of the most robust predictors of child pain outcomes. Although assessments of state (ie, situation-specific) pain catastrophizing in children and parents are often used, their psychometric properties are unknown. This study aimed to assess factor structure, reliability, and predictive validity of state versions of Pain Catastrophizing Scales for children and parents relative to corresponding trait versions for child and parental pain-related outcomes. Data were pooled from 8 experimental pain studies in which child and/or parent state catastrophizing (measured immediately before application of a pain stimulus) and trait catastrophizing were assessed in community-based samples of children aged 8 to 18 years (N = 689) and their parents (N = 888) in Dutch or English. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to examine the underlying factor structure of the state versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for parents/children, revealing a single factor solution that explained 55.53% of the variance for children and 49.72% for parents. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to examine relative influence of state versus trait catastrophizing on child and parent pain-related outcomes. Child and parent state catastrophizing were significantly associated with child pain intensity, child state anxiety and parental distress. State catastrophizing scores showed stronger associations than trait scores for most outcomes. This article presents the psychometric properties of state pain catastrophizing measures for children and parents. Findings underscore the importance of assessing state pain catastrophizing about acute pain experiences in parents and children, and provide a basis for robust and valid measurement of state pain catastrophizing about child pain. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-03-06

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  7. Factors associated with increased risk for pain catastrophizing in patients with chronic neck pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang Jun; Lee, Rippy; Yoon, Duck Mi; Yoon, Kyung Bong; Kim, Kiwook; Kim, Shin Hyung

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Pain catastrophizing is becoming increasingly recognized as a clinically important psychological factor in chronic musculoskeletal pain. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we have identified factors associated with an increased risk for pain catastrophizing in chronic neck pain (CNP) patients. We obtained data from our medical database on 331 patients who were treated for neck pain as their chief complaint at our clinic. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to define a high pain catastrophizing state (PCS score ≥21) in this study. Patient demographics, pain-related factors, and psychological factors were evaluated with logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of high pain catastrophizing among patients with CNP. A total of 256 patients with CNP satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were included in the analyses. The median PCS score was 16 (range, 0–45), and 86 of 256 patients (33.5%) reported a PCS score ≥21. In multivariate analysis, high pain intensity, clinical insomnia, and a high level of depression/anxiety were strongly associated with high pain catastrophizing in patients with CNP. Depression was the strongest predictor of high pain catastrophizing, with an odds ratio of 7.35 (95% confidence interval 2.23–24.22). High pain catastrophizing was not significantly related to age, gender, comorbidities, or neck pain-related physical symptoms. In conclusion, poor psychological states should be addressed as an important part of pain management in CNP patients who are susceptible to high pain catastrophizing. PMID:27631217

  8. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W; Quartana, Phillip J; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y

    2008-04-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only patients described by certain combinations of pain catastrophizing and physiological indexes would report pronounced chronic pain. Chronic low back pain patients (N = 97) participated in anger recall and sadness recall interviews while lower paraspinal and trapezius EMG and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR) were recorded. Mediation models were not supported. However, pain catastrophizing significantly interacted with resting lower paraspinal muscle tension to predict pain severity such that high catastrophizers with high resting lower paraspinal tension reported the greatest pain. Pain catastrophizing also interacted with SBP, DBP and HR reactivity to affect pain such that high catastrophizers who showed low cardiovascular reactivity to the interviews reported the greatest pain. Results support a multi-variable profile approach to identifying pain catastrophizers at greatest risk for pain severity by virtue of resting muscle tension and cardiovascular stress function.

  9. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Suso-Ribera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation. If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  10. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  11. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  12. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  13. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  14. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  15. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

    2015-11-01

    Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  16. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Marotta

    Full Text Available Abstract Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  18. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  19. Astronomy and catastrophes through myth and old texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, E.; Ćirković, M.; Stojić, Igor; Gavrilović, Nataša

    In the old myths and iconographies there are some motives that indicate at least one cataclysmic event that influenced many old religions and myths, that could be linked to the impact of the celestial object. We investigate the hypothesis of coherent catastrophism put forward in recent years by Clube, Bailey, Napier and others from both astrobiological and culturogical points of view. The conventional idea that the quasi-periodic break-up of celestial bodies influence terrestrial conditions can today be placed in both wider (astro-biological) and deeper (historico-culturological) context. In particular, we point out that the link between the Neolithic history of astronomy, and origin of Mithraism. We speculate that the main icon of Mithraic religion could pinpoint an event that happened around 4000 BC, when the spring equinox entered the constellation of Taurus. We also, link some motives in other old religions and myths to the same event, or to some similar events that inspired those myths.

  20. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  1. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  2. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  3. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  4. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  5. Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, G F; Lindop, N A; Edmunds, W J; Nokes, D J

    2001-05-01

    Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time, 'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

  6. Genomic catastrophism and the origin of vertebrate immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A L

    1999-01-01

    Genomic catastrophism is the belief that unique genetic events, unlike those observed in recent evolutionary history, played a key role in the origin of vertebrate adaptations. Catastrophist hypotheses have been particularly popular is accounting for the origin of vertebrate specific immunity. Two major such hypotheses involve genome duplication by polyploidization and horizontal gene transfer. Recent analyses lead to decisive rejection of the widely cited hypothesis that the vertebrate genome underwent two rounds of genome duplication, and theoretical considerations suggest that genome duplication is unlikely to lead to new adaptive advances. Likewise, the evidence that key elements of the vertebrate immune system arose by horizontal transfer from a bacterium or by incorporation of a transposable element into the vertebrate genome remains relatively weak. Thus, at present, a uniformitarian view of the origin of the vertebrate immune system seems more reasonable, especially given the longer time-frame for vertebrate evolution indicated by molecular data.

  7. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  8. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  9. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  10. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  11. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  12. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  13. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit union...

  14. The Relation Between Catastrophizing and Occupational Disability in Individuals with Major Depression: Concurrent and Prospective Associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Heather; Thibault, Pascal; Ellis, Tamra; Moore, Emily; Sullivan, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Background Catastrophic thinking has been associated with occupational disability in individuals with debilitating pain conditions. The relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability has not been previously examined in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions. The present study examined the relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability in individuals with major depression. Methods The study sample consisted of 80 work-disabled individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) who were referred to an occupational rehabilitation service. Participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity, catastrophic thinking and occupational disability at admission and termination of a rehabilitation intervention. Return-to-work outcomes were assessed 1 month following the termination of the rehabilitation intervention. Results Cross-sectional analyses of admission data revealed that catastrophic thinking contributed significant variance to the prediction of self-reported occupational disability, beyond the variance accounted for by depressive symptom severity. Prospective analyses revealed that reductions in catastrophic thinking predicted successful return to work following the rehabilitation intervention, beyond the variance accounted for by reductions in depressive symptom severity. Conclusions The findings suggest that catastrophic thinking is a determinant of occupational disability in individuals with major depressive disorder. The findings further suggest that interventions designed to reduce catastrophic thinking might promote occupational re-integration in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions.

  15. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  16. Parent pain catastrophizing predicts child depressive symptoms in youth with sickle cell disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein-Leever, Alana; Cohen, Lindsey L; Dampier, Carlton; Sil, Soumitri

    2018-03-07

    Youth with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk for recurrent pain and depressive symptoms, both of which contribute to poorer health outcomes. Furthermore, youth and family coping with child pain, including pain catastrophizing, is known to be associated with poorer psychosocial adjustment and greater functional disability among youth with SCD. In particular, child catastrophizing about pain and parent catastrophizing about their child's pain have been linked to increased pain and depressive symptoms in youth with chronic pain conditions. Despite this, the impact of child and parent pain catastrophizing on depressive symptoms remains unexplored in pediatric SCD. The current study evaluated the predictive value of child and parent pain catastrophizing on child depressive symptoms in a sample of 100 youth with SCD. Differences in child and parent pain catastrophizing across youth with and without clinically elevated depressive symptoms were also examined. Pain frequency and parent and child pain catastrophizing accounted for 35.9% of variance in child depressive symptoms, with only pain frequency and parent pain catastrophizing emerging as unique predictors of clinically elevated depressive symptoms. Additionally, parents of youth with clinically elevated depressive symptoms showed increased helplessness relative to parents of youth with minimal to mild depressive symptoms. Findings support the value of depression screening and interventions to promote parent self-efficacy in managing childhood SCD pain. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  18. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  19. Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour en 2006). Couverture du livre Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour. Directeur(s):. David Glover et Timothy Jessup. Maison(s) d'édition: ISEAS, CRDI. 1 janvier 1999. ISBN : 9812300066. 160 pages. e-ISBN : 1552503321.

  20. Influence of Photospheric Magnetic Conditions on the Catastrophic Behaviors of Flux Ropes in Solar Active Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui; Liu, Jiajia, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Since only the magnetic conditions at the photosphere can be routinely observed in current observations, it is of great significance to determine the influences of photospheric magnetic conditions on solar eruptive activities. Previous studies about catastrophe indicated that the magnetic system consisting of a flux rope in a partially open bipolar field is subject to catastrophe, but not if the bipolar field is completely closed under the same specified photospheric conditions. In order to investigate the influence of the photospheric magnetic conditions on the catastrophic behavior of this system, we expand upon the 2.5-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic model in Cartesian coordinates to simulate the evolution of the equilibrium states of the system under different photospheric flux distributions. Our simulation results reveal that a catastrophe occurs only when the photospheric flux is not concentrated too much toward the polarity inversion line and the source regions of the bipolar field are not too weak; otherwise no catastrophe occurs. As a result, under certain photospheric conditions, a catastrophe could take place in a completely closed configuration, whereas it ceases to exist in a partially open configuration. This indicates that whether the background field is completely closed or partially open is not the only necessary condition for the existence of catastrophe, and that the photospheric conditions also play a crucial role in the catastrophic behavior of the flux rope system.

  1. Microtubule dynamic instability: A new model with coupled GTP hydrolysis and multistep catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowne-Anderson, Hugo; Zanic, Marija; Kauer, Monika; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-01-01

    A key question in understanding microtubule dynamics is how GTP hydrolysis leads to catastrophe, the switch from slow growth to rapid shrinkage. We first provide a review of the experimental and modeling literature, and then present a new model of microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that vectorial, random, and coupled hydrolysis mechanisms are not consistent with the dependence of catastrophe on tubulin concentration and show that, although single-protofilament models can explain many features of dynamics, they do not describe catastrophe as a multistep process. Finally, we present a new combined (coupled plus random hydrolysis) multiple-protofilament model that is a simple, analytically solvable generalization of a single-protofilament model. This model accounts for the observed lifetimes of growing microtubules, the delay to catastrophe following dilution and describes catastrophe as a multistep process. PMID:23532586

  2. The effects of multiple anaesthetic episodes on equine recovery quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, J P; Simon, B T; Coleman, M; Martinez, E A; Lepiz, M A; Watts, A E

    2018-01-01

    Although rare, 70% of equine fatalities during recovery from general anaesthesia (GA) are due to catastrophic fractures from poor recovery quality. To determine the effect of repeated GA recovery on GA recovery quality. Experimental blinded trial. Eight adult horses underwent six GA events on sevoflurane for distal limb MRI examination over a 14-week period. Prior to GA recovery, xylazine was administered. Randomly ordered video-recorded GA recoveries were scored by three blinded board certified veterinary anaesthesiologists, unaware of patient identity or GA event number, for nine parameters using a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS) where 0 = worst and 100 = best. The number of attempts to stand, duration of lateral and sternal recumbency, total recovery duration and physiologic parameters during each GA event were recorded. Repeated measures ANOVA were used to detect differences. Agreement between observer VAS scores was determined via inter-rater reliability using an intraclass correlation. With GA recovery experience, VAS scores for balance and coordination, knuckling, and overall quality of recovery were improved and the duration of lateral recumbency was increased. There were no differences in total recovery duration, number of attempts to stand, physiologic parameters other than heart rate during GA, or VAS scores for activity in lateral recumbency, move to sternal, move to stand, or strength. Each GA event was relatively short and there was no surgical stimulation. The same results may not occur if there was surgical stimulation and pain during each GA event. Recovery from GA improves with multiple anaesthetic episodes in horses. Clinicians can advise clients that horses are likely to have better GA recovery on repeated GA recovery due to improved balance and coordination and reduced knuckling. Additionally, there is no change in anaesthetic morbidity with six repeated GA events over a 14-week period. © 2017 EVJ Ltd.

  3. Agreement between the Government of the French Republic and the Swiss Federal Council on Mutual Assistance in case of a catastrophe or a serious accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    This agreement, signed on 14 January 1987, was formally approved in France by Act No. 88-1255 of 30 December 1988 (published in the Journal Officiel de la Republique Francaise of 4 January 1989). The agreement was published by Decree No. 89-207 of 7 April 1989. It lays down a comprehensive legal framework for mutual emergency assistance. It provides, in particular, that rescue teams will be sent by the Parties in all cases of catastrophe and serious accidents, including nuclear incidents. (NEA) [fr

  4. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  5. Predictors of incident depression after hip fracture surgery.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Banerjee, S.; Horan, M.; Baldwin, R.; Pendleton, N.; Proctor, R.; Tarrier, N.; Woodward, Y.; Burns, A.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Depression after hip fracture surgery is prevalent and associated with increased mortality rates and impaired functional recovery. The incidence of new-onset depressive symptoms in patients initially not depressed after hip fracture surgery and their relationship with functional recovery

  6. A case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: first report with advanced cardiac imaging using MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, A N; Anavekar, N S; Ernste, F C; Mankad, S V; Le, R J; Manocha, K K; Barsness, G W

    2015-10-01

    This present case pertains to a 48-year-old woman with a history of antiphospholipid syndrome, who presented with progressive fatigue, generalized weakness, and orthopnea acutely. She had a prior diagnosis of antiphospholipid syndrome with recurrent deep vein thromboses (DVTs) and repeated demonstration of lupus anticoagulants. She presented in cardiogenic shock with markedly elevated troponin and global myocardial dysfunction on echocardiography, and cardiac catheterization revealed minimal disease. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed, which revealed findings of perfusion defects and microvascular obstruction, consistent with the pathophysiology of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Diagnosis was made based on supportive imaging, including head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealing multifocal, acute strokes; microvascular thrombosis in the dermis; and subacute renal infarctions. The patient was anticoagulated with intravenous unfractionated heparin and received high-dose methylprednisolone, plasmapheresis, intravenous immunoglobulin, and one dose each of rituximab and cyclophosphamide. She convalesced with eventual myocardial recovery after a complicated course. The diagnosis of CAPS relies on the presence of (1) antiphospholipid antibodies and (2) involvement of multiple organs in a microangiopathic thrombotic process with a close temporal association. The myocardium is frequently affected, and heart failure, either as the presenting symptom or cause of death, is common. Despite echocardiographic evidence of myocardial dysfunction in such patients, MRIs of CAPS have not previously been reported. This case highlights the utility in assessing the involvement of the myocardium by the microangiopathic process with MRI. Because the diagnosis of CAPS requires involvement in multiple organ systems, cardiac MRI is likely an underused tool that not only reaffirms the pathophysiology of CAPS, but could also clue clinicians in to the

  7. Pathophysiology of repetitive head injury in sports. Prevention against catastrophic brain damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Tatsuro; Kawamata, Tatsuro; Katayama, Yoichi

    2008-01-01

    The most common head injury in sports is concussion and experiencing multiple concussions in a short period of time sometimes can cause severe brain damage. In this paper, we investigate severe brain damage due to repeated head injury in sports and discuss the pathophysiology of repeated sports injury. The majority of these severe cases are usually male adolescents or young adults that suffer a second head injury before they have recovered from the first head injury. All cases that could be confirmed by brain CT scan after the second injury revealed brain swelling associated with a thin subdural hematoma. We suggested that the existence of subdural hematoma is one of the major causes of brain swelling after repeated head injury in sports. Since repeated concussions occurring within a short period may have a risk for severe brain damage, the diagnosis for initial cerebral concussion should be done appropriately. To prevent catastrophic brain damage, the player who suffered from concussion should not engage in any sports before recovery. The american Academy of Neurology and Colorado Medical Society set a guideline to return to play after cerebral concussion. An international conference on concussion in sports was held at Prague in 2004. The summary and agreement of this meeting was published and the Sports Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) was introduced to treat sports-related concussion. In addition, a number of computerized cognitive assessment tests and test batteries have been developed to allow athletes to return to play. It is important that coaches, as well as players and trainers, understand the medical issues involved in concussion. (author)

  8. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  9. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  12. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  13. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  14. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  15. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-03-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  16. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  17. Catastrophic Transculturation in Dracula, The Strain and The Historian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Hoglund

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article notes that what Paul Brantlinger has referred to as the Imperial Gothic insists that the encounter between cultures results not in a transcultural merger, but in an apocalyptic struggle for survival. As this struggle is often tied to past and present-day imperial sentiment, the article suggests that both late-Victorian and contemporary fiction can effectively be discussed with the help of Marie Louise Pratt's concept transculturation. Through a reading of three vampire narratives, Stokers's Dracula (1897, Del Toro and Hogan's The Strain (2009 and Kostova's The Historian (2005, the article demonstrates how past and present imperial gothic texts describe the derailment of European modernity and insists that cultural encounter produce monstrous hybrids that threaten an ontological and/or epistemological apocalypse. In this way, the cultural encounter that these gothic novels imagine result in catastrophic transculturation and the article argues that this is a common way of understanding the transnational meeting in American neo-imperial discourse.

  18. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  19. The epidemiology of catastrophic spine injuries in high school and college football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sanjitpal S; Boden, Barry P

    2008-03-01

    Athletic events have long been identified as a source of catastrophic spinal injuries. One of the most notorious sports has been American football. At both the amateur and professional level, this collision sport is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries including cervical spine trauma and quadriplegia. Although modifications in the rules of play and education of players and coaches have significantly diminished the rate of quadriplegia, there remains a need to decrease the number of catastrophic spine injuries in football. Further research related to the prevention and management of athletic cervical spine trauma is necessary.

  20. A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Gottwald

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

  1. Incidência e profilaxia de náuseas e vômitos na recuperação pós-anestésica de um hospital-escola terciário Incidencia y profilaxis de náuseas y vómitos en la recuperación postanestésica de un hospital -escuela terciario Incidence and prophylaxis of nausea and vomiting in post-anesthetic recovery in a tertiary teaching hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Augusto Martins Patti

    2008-10-01

    that increases the length of anesthetic recovery and causes patient dissatisfaction. The evaluation of the risk of PONV and institution of prophylactic measures aiming the well-being of patients and cost reduction are frequent in the medical literature. This observational study evaluated the incidence, risk factors, and adjustment and effectivity of the prophylaxis of PONV in the recovery room of a tertiary teaching school. METHODS: Information obtained from patients' records and questionnaires answered by patients included age, major predictive factors for PONV (female gender, history, absence of smoking, and postoperative use of opioids, prophylactic drugs administered, development of PONV, type of surgery and anesthesia, use of nitrous oxide, clinical status, and length of stay in the recovery room. RESULTS: An incidence of 18.5% of nausea and 8.5% of vomiting in the immediate postoperative period was observed. A correlation between major risk factors and the development of PONV was also observed. A correlation between those factors and prophylactic anti-emetic drugs, as well as between their use and the development of PONV, was not observed. However, a tendency to administer prophylactic medication to young female patients was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The concerns of the anesthesiologists of the institution with PONV were evident. However, the absence of correlation between risk and prophylaxis suggests an empirical and ineffective procedure. Factors that were not evaluated were suggested by the absence between PONV and the use of anti-emetic drugs. The orientation for anesthesiologists regarding more effective prophylactic measures can improve care of the population assisted.

  2. The interplay of parent and adolescent catastrophizing and its impact on adolescents' pain, functioning, and pain behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R

    2013-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N=240). Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (>70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems.

  3. The Interplay of Parent and Adolescent Catastrophizing and Its Impact on Adolescents’ Pain, Functioning, and Pain Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M.; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Methods Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N = 240). Results Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (> 70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Discussion Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems. PMID:23370064

  4. Upset Prevention and Recovery for Unimpaired and Impaired Aircraft Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of the project is the development of an on-board envelope estimation, protection and upset recovery tool to address loss of control incidents in...

  5. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GS DeFraia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions. Objective: To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents. Methods: Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events. Results: Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident. Conclusion: Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  6. 76 FR 31973 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Notice of Availability of Draft Recovery Plan for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-02

    ... INFORMATION: Background Recovery of endangered or threatened animals and plants to the point where they are... vulnerability to extinction through deterministic or stochastic (chance) events. Unidentified caterpillar... currently unknown. In order to reduce the potential for extinction due to the catastrophic loss of the small...

  7. The effect of landform and plant size on mortallity and recovery of longleaf pine during a 100-year loog1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain J. Palik; William K. Michener; Robert J. Mitchell; Joseph W. Jones

    1999-01-01

    Unlike annual floods, large floods affect plant species outside of bottomland ecosystems. We know little about the effects of catastrophic floods on upland plants because of the rarity of this type of disturbance. Here we report on mortality and vegetative recovery of upland longleaf pines (Pinus palustris) after a large flood. The flood top-killed most seedlings...

  8. Medical and radioecological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Western Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frenzel, Ch.; Llengfelder, E.

    2016-01-01

    Full text: The catastrophe at the unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukrainian SSR which occurred on 26 April 1986, was the most serious accident in the history of nuclear industry and the civil use of nuclear energy until this time. Initial explosions destroyed the reactor completely. During about 10 days, large amounts of radioactive material were released to the western part of Soviet Union as well as to all European countries. 25 years later in March 2011, the next nuclear disaster at a level of INES 7 occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Site in Japan, where 4 reactor units were destroyed by explosions and nuclear melt down processes. Compared with Chernobyl, a larger amount of radioactivity was released in Fukushima. After Chernobyl, the majority of the radionuclide depositions affected the CIS countries. Due to continuously changing of wind directions and weather conditions during the 10 days of release of radioactivity, the radionuclide distribution and deposition was very inhomogeneous not only in the CIS countries, but even at far distances as in Germany, Scandinavia , the north of Scotland and many other countries. The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, has repeatedly placed particular emphasis on the fact that millions of people continue to be directly affected by the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, including acute suffering and continuing health disorders, and that this disaster is a matter of global concern. The most affected countries by the extent of radionuclide deposition show since years the incidence of cancer and other disorders of thyroid as well as many other serious health effects. After Chernobyl, nuclear disasters will happen again – as has been verified in Fukushima - in one of the more than 440 nuclear power stations worldwide. Most of them are located in areas with a population density several fold greater than in the case of Chernobyl. If we do not know the past, we will not be able to

  9. National Health Insurance Scheme: How Protected Are Households in Oyo State, Nigeria from Catastrophic Health Expenditure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The major objective of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in Nigeria is to protect families from the financial hardship of large medical bills. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE is rampart in Nigeria despite the take-off of the NHIS. This study aimed to determine if households enrolled in the NHIS were protected from having CHE. Methods The study took place among 714 households in urban communities of Oyo State. CHE was measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. Descriptive statistics were done, Principal Component Analysis was used to divide households into wealth quintiles. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were done. Results The mean age of household respondent was 33.5 years. The median household income was 43,500 naira (290 US dollars and the range was 7,000–680,000 naira (46.7–4,533 US dollars in 2012. The overall median household healthcare cost was 890 naira (5.9 US dollars and the range was 10-17,700 naira (0.1–118 US dollars in 2012. In all, 67 (9.4% households were enrolled in NHIS scheme. Healthcare services was utilized by 637 (82.9% and CHE occurred in 42 (6.6% households. CHE occurred in 14 (10.9% of the households in the lowest quintile compared to 3 (2.5% in the highest wealth quintile (P= 0.004. The odds of CHE among households in lowest wealth quintile is about 5 times. They had Crude OR (CI: 4.7 (1.3–16.8, P= 0.022. Non enrolled households were two times likely to have CHE, though not significant Conclusion Households in the lowest wealth quintiles were at higher risk of CHE. Universal coverage of health insurance in Nigeria should be fast-tracked to give the expected financial risk protection and decreased incidence of CHE.

  10. Earthquake recovery of historic buildings: exploring cost and time needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Nammari, Fatima M; Lindell, Michael K

    2009-07-01

    Disaster recovery of historic buildings has rarely been investigated even though the available literature indicates that they face special challenges. This study examines buildings' recovery time and cost to determine whether their functions (that is, their use) and their status (historic or non-historic) affect these outcomes. The study uses data from the city of San Francisco after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake to examine the recovery of historic buildings owned by public agencies and non-governmental organisations. The results show that recovery cost is affected by damage level, construction type and historic status, whereas recovery time is affected by the same variables and also by building function. The study points to the importance of pre-incident recovery planning, especially for building functions that have shown delayed recovery. Also, the study calls attention to the importance of further investigations into the challenges facing historic building recovery.

  11. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  12. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  13. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  14. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: comparative study by social exclusion level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Puentes-Rosas, Esteban

    2005-01-01

    To describe the differences in catastrophic health expenditures in five Mexican states. This study included five states selected by convenience according to their social exclusion level. Household catastrophic health expenditures attributable to the three components of out of pocket health expenditures (ambulatory care, medication, and inpatient care) were calculated. The risk of impoverishment at the national level was greater in the most vulnerable households, namely, in the 20% poorest, rural, and uninsured households. Nevertheless, in states like Aguascalientes, Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Morelos the results were different. Over 70% of catastrophic health expenditures were attributable to medication and outpatient care expenditures in the poorest states. The differences found among states show that the implementation of local health policies to reduce catastrophic health expenditures should be based on evidence generated from analyses at the state level.

  15. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  16. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : New York City -- September 11, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the terrorist attack in New York City on September 11, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  17. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Northridge earthquake -- January 17, 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-22

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...

  18. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : cross cutting study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    In order to provide a better understanding of how transportation is both affected and utilized in an emergency situation, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) commissioned a series of four case studies examining the effects of catastrophic event...

  19. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  20. Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Alan Flory

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Environmental impacts from carcass management are a significant concern globally. Despite a history of costly, ineffective, and environmentally damaging carcass disposal efforts, large animal carcass disposal methods have advanced little in the past decade. An outbreak today will likely be managed with the same carcass disposal techniques used in the previous decades and will likely result in the same economic, health, and environmental impacts. This article overviews the results of one field test that was completed in Virginia (United States using the aboveground burial (AGB technique and the disposal of 111 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD infected sheep in Tunisia using a similar methodology. Materials and Methods: Researchers in the United States conducted a field test to assess the environmental impact and effectiveness of AGB in decomposing livestock carcasses. The system design included a shallow trench excavated into native soil and a carbonaceous base placed on the bottom of the trenches followed by a single layer of animal carcasses. Excavated soils were subsequently placed on top of the animals, and a vegetative layer was established. A similar methodology was used in Tunisia to manage sheep infected with FMDs, Peste des Petits Ruminants virus, and Bluetongue Virus. Results: The results of the field test in the United States demonstrated a significant carcass degradation during the 1-year period of the project, and the migration of nutrients below the carcasses appears to be limited thereby minimizing the threat of groundwater contamination. The methodology proved practical for the disposal of infected sheep carcasses in Tunisia. Conclusions: Based on the analysis conducted to date, AGB appears to offer many benefits over traditional burial for catastrophic mortality management. Ongoing research will help to identify limitations of the method and determine where its application during large disease outbreaks or natural

  1. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  2. Integrated Modeling of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities and Decisions Induced by Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Ermolieva, T.Y.; Fischer, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses an integrated model capable of dealing with spatial and temporal heterogeneities induced by extreme events, in particular weather related catastrophes. The model can be used for quite different problems which take explicitly into account the specifics of catastrophic risks: highly mutually dependent losses, inherent capacity of information, the need for long-term perspectives (temporal heterogeneity) and geographically explicit analyses (spatial heterogeneity) with respec...

  3. An Empirical Investigation of Catastrophic Forgetting in Gradient-Based Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Goodfellow, Ian J.; Mirza, Mehdi; Xiao, Da; Courville, Aaron; Bengio, Yoshua

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a problem faced by many machine learning models and algorithms. When trained on one task, then trained on a second task, many machine learning models "forget" how to perform the first task. This is widely believed to be a serious problem for neural networks. Here, we investigate the extent to which the catastrophic forgetting problem occurs for modern neural networks, comparing both established and recent gradient-based training algorithms and activation functions. ...

  4. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  5. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  6. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  7. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  8. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  9. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  10. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  11. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed.

  12. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  13. A hybrid simulator model for the control of catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage in the military environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverplats, Katarina; Jonsson, Anders; Lundberg, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic haemorrhage from extremity injuries has for a long time been the single most common cause of preventable death in the military environment. The effective use of extremity tourniquets has increased the survival of combat casualties, and exsanguination from isolated limb injuries is no longer the most common cause of death. Today, the most common cause of potentially preventable death is haemorrhage from the junctional zones, i.e. the most proximal part of the extremities, not amenable to standard tourniquets. Different training techniques to control catastrophic haemorrhage have been used by the Swedish Armed Forces in the pre-deployment training of physicians, nurses and medics for many years. The training techniques include different types of human patient simulators such as moulage patients and manikins. Preferred training conditions for the control of catastrophic haemorrhage include a high degree of realism, in combination with multiple training attempts. This report presents a new hybrid training model for catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage control. It offers a readily reproducible, simple and inexpensive opportunity to train personnel to deal with life threatening catastrophic junctional haemorrhage. In particular, this model offers an opportunity for non-medical military personnel in Sweden to practice control of realistic catastrophic haemorrhage, with multiple training attempts.

  14. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  15. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

    2011-01-04

    The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a class is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between

  16. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montero Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. Results By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. Conclusions The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting

  17. Walking Recovery after a Hip Fracture: A Prospective Follow-Up Study among Community-Dwelling over 60-Year Old Men and Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anu Salpakoski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Recovery of walking outdoors after hip fracture is important for equal participation in the community. The causes of poor recovery are not fully understood. This study investigates recovery of walking outdoors and associated determinants after hip fracture. Methods. A prospective follow-up study, among clinical sample of 81 community-dwelling hip fracture patients over 60 years. Perceived difficulty in walking outdoors and 500 meters was assessed before fracture, at discharge to home (3.2 ± 2.2 weeks after surgery, and on average 6.0 ± 3.3 weeks after discharge. Potential determinants for walking recovery were assessed. Linear latent trajectory model was used to analyse changes during follow-up. Association between walking trajectories and potential determinants was analysed with a logistic regression model. Results. Two trajectories, No-to-minor-difficulty and Catastrophic, were found. Thirty-eight percent of the participants ended up in the Catastrophic trajectory for walking outdoors and 67% for 500 meters. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that use of walking aid and indoor falls before fracture and prolonged pain were independently associated with catastrophic decline in both primary outcomes: difficulty in walking outdoors and 500 meters. Conclusions. A large proportion of community-dwelling older people recovering from hip fracture experienced catastrophic decline in outdoor walking. Acknowledging recovery prognoses at early stage enables individualized rehabilitation.

  18. MCFRS Incidents by Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Montgomery County of Maryland — This dataset contains the monthly summary data indicating incident occurred in each fire station response area. The summary data is the incident count broken down by...

  19. Police Incident Reports Written

    Data.gov (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — This table contains incident reports filed with the Chapel Hill Police Department. Multiple incidents may have been reported at the same time. The most serious...

  20. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  1. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  2. After the Fall: The Tapestry of Disturbance and Recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadkarni, Nalini M

    2017-02-01

    On July 3, 2015, Nalini Nadkarni, a world-renowned ecologist who had been studying the biologic processes of ecosystem disturbance and recovery, sustained a catastrophic 50-foot free-fall from the top of the rainforest canopy to the forest floor at her remote field research site. She lost consciousness in shock and sustained life-threatening injuries. Her accompanying students hiked out, radio-called 911, and the Harborview Medical Center (Seattle) Medivac team arrived 4 hours later to rescue her. Her prognosis was extremely grim; her family gathered in anticipation of her death as she underwent four operations during her 10 days in the ICU. As she emerged from coma, she spent weeks of hospital recovery and months of progressive mobility and physical therapy during medical leave from work. She experienced ICU psychosis and postintensive care syndrome, but slowly recovered nearly totally, to the point where she can solo hike up to 18 miles in a day, and has fully resumed her professional responsibilities as professor of biology, including climbing tall trees for her canopy research. She attributes her survival and remarkable recovery to both exquisite medical critical care and support she received, and also to incorporating lessons learned from her interdisciplinary study of how diverse natural systems commonly experience and recover from catastrophic disturbances (e.g., forest fires, traffic jams, orphaned children, and refugee survivors of war). Insights from her own encounter with critical illness and study of disturbance and recovery led her to reflect on the tapestry of disturbance and recovery that permeate all ecosystems, and with relevance to the evolving Society of Critical Care Medicine, postintensive care syndrome, and THRIVE initiatives.

  3. History and Catastrophe: Tragedy and Reconciliation in Schiller and Hegel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Aranzueque

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available To what extent is it possible be reconciled with a tragic past? Could historical narration or dramatic performance help to get over the traumatic event indeed? Or do they just ascertain its constitutive contradictions, the split and the rift from a pain wich is impossible to sublimate? Is the mourning experience based on the recovery of a feeble balance between the opposite drives, emotions and feelings from the will? Or does it depend on the synthetic assimilation of that opposition into another way of life? This essay travels hand in hand with Schiller and Hegel across the space opened by those questions. It starts from the dissatisfaction generated in the young Hegel by his reading of Schiller’s Wallenstein and it analyzes his different conceptions of the ethic pathos, as well as his uneven perspective about the function of the chorus in the Attic tragedy

  4. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertently by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 buildup, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that both regional and global catastrophic risks must be taken into consideration in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risks is proposed. (author)

  5. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  6. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

    2016-09-13

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  7. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-04-01

    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  8. Water Recovery Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) is advancing environmental control and life support systems water recovery technologies to support human exploration beyond low...

  9. EPA Recovery Mapper

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Recovery Mapper is an Internet interactive mapping application that allows users to discover information about every American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

  10. Catastrophic flood disturbance and a community's response to plant resilience in the heart of the Texas Hill Country

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Phillips, John N.; Perkins, Thaïs; Manning, Aspen; Julian, Jason P.

    2018-03-01

    The Blanco River, which flows through the limestone Balcones Canyonlands of central Texas (USA), experienced catastrophic flooding in May 2015 that resulted in significant biogeomorphic disturbance to its riparian corridor. High-resolution aerial and satellite imagery from pre- and post-flooding for a 55-km reach of river were used to map and categorize patterns of disturbance by degree of severity ranging from complete floodplain stripping to no disturbance. The most severe disturbance occurred within the floodway near the channel and decreased with lateral distance into the 100- and 500-year floodplains. Disturbance patterns previously identified in the literature including meander scour, parallel chute scour, convex bank erosion, and macroturbulent scour were all present following this event, as well as substantial disturbance proximal to tributary confluences. In the aftermath of this event, TreeFolks, a local nonprofit organization, engaged with the community to actively replant and restore the riparian corridor of the Blanco River on public and private lands. These reforestation efforts supplement the natural passive recovery of the riparian corridor, enabling the system to recover more quickly and be resilient to future flood events.

  11. Spatially Dispersed Employee Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvass, Kristian Anders; Torfadóttir, Embla

    2014-01-01

    personnel achieve service recovery. Employee recovery within service research often focuses on front-line employees that work in a fixed location, however a contribution to the field is made by investigating the recovery of spatially dispersed personnel, such as operational personnel in the transport sector...

  12. Recovery from mental illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kirsten Schultz; Friis, Vivi Soegaard; Haxholm, Birthe Lodahl

    2015-01-01

    Mental health services strive to implement a recovery-oriented approach to rehabilitation. Little is known about service users' perception of the recovery approach. The aim is to explore the service user's perspectives on facilitators and barriers associated with recovery. Twelve residents living...

  13. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  14. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Onwujekwe, Obinna; Torpey, Kwasi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Chiegil, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services. An exit survey of adults (18+years) attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra). In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES) and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits) as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively. The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (ptravel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable and high cost burden of ART services. Full inclusion of ART services within the benefit package of the National Health Insurance Scheme should be considered.

  15. Disaster recovery: mitigating loss through documentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Flood, fire, tornado, hurricane. Whatever the cause, natural or man-made, the result on an organization can be devastating. Planning and preparation for disaster must include significant attention to disaster recovery. The ability to produce documentation of what existed, what was damaged, recovery costs and income losses will be essential to the claims adjustment process. This article discusses strategies for creating a historical record, leveraging contemporaneous incident command documentation and working with contractors to identify and record disaster-related expenses. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  16. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  17. Catastrophic health expenses and impoverishment of households of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Hernández, Everardo; Peláez-Ballestas, Ingris; Boonen, Annelies; Vázquez-Mellado, Janitzia; Hernández-Garduño, Adolfo; Rivera, Fernando Carlos; Teran-Estrada, Leobardo; Ventura-Ríos, Lucio; Ramos-Remus, César; Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra; Goycochea-Robles, Maria Victoria; Bernard-Medina, Ana Guislaine; Burgos-Vargas, Rubén

    2012-01-01

    The cost of certain diseases may lead to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment of households without full financial support by the state and other organizations. To determine the socioeconomic impact of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cost in the context of catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. This is a cohort-nested cross-sectional multicenter study on the cost of RA in Mexican households with partial, full, or private health care coverage. Catastrophic expenses referred to health expenses totaling >30% of the total household income. Impoverishment defined those households that could not afford the Mexican basic food basket (BFB). We included 262 patients with a mean monthly household income (US dollars) of $376 (0–18,890.63). In all, 50.8%, 35.5%, and 13.7% of the patients had partial, full, or private health care coverage, respectively. RA annual cost was $ 5534.8 per patient (65% direct cost, 35% indirect). RA cost caused catastrophic expenses in 46.9% of households, which in the logistic regression analysis were significantly associated with the type of health care coverage (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.6–4.7) and disease duration (OR 1.024, 95%CI 1.002–1.046). Impoverishment occurred in 66.8% of households and was associated with catastrophic expenses (OR 3.6, 95%CI 1.04–14.1), high health assessment questionnaire scores (OR 4.84 95%CI 1.01–23.3), and low socioeconomic level (OR 4.66, 95%CI 1.37–15.87). The cost of RA in Mexican households, particularly those lacking full health coverage leads to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. These findings could be the same in countries with fragmented health care systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  18. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  19. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  20. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  1. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  2. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  3. Chronicle of a death foretold: a case of catastrophic vascular Behcet's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Elitzur, Yair; Korach, Amit; Hiller, Nurith; Chajek-Shaul, Tova

    2007-03-01

    A 20-year-old man with Behcet's disease characterized by recurrent arterial aneurysms presented with a new aortic root aneurysm. This patient previously had aneurysms of the coronary arteries and vein, as well as ruptured renal artery aneurysm. Chronic maintenance immunosuppressive therapy was recommended due to the catastrophic nature of the disease, which the patient refused to take. The patient died shortly after admission. This case demonstrates the unique catastrophic natural history of vascular Behcet's disease with recurrent life-threatening arterial events, and this case stresses the therapeutic dilemma of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy in selected patients.

  4. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  5. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  6. Battleground Energy Recovery Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bullock, Daniel [USDOE Gulf Coast Clean Energy Application Center, Woodlands, TX (United States)

    2011-12-31

    In October 2009, the project partners began a 36-month effort to develop an innovative, commercial-scale demonstration project incorporating state-of-the-art waste heat recovery technology at Clean Harbors, Inc., a large hazardous waste incinerator site located in Deer Park, Texas. With financial support provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Battleground Energy Recovery Project was launched to advance waste heat recovery solutions into the hazardous waste incineration market, an area that has seen little adoption of heat recovery in the United States. The goal of the project was to accelerate the use of energy-efficient, waste heat recovery technology as an alternative means to produce steam for industrial processes. The project had three main engineering and business objectives: Prove Feasibility of Waste Heat Recovery Technology at a Hazardous Waste Incinerator Complex; Provide Low-cost Steam to a Major Polypropylene Plant Using Waste Heat; and Create a Showcase Waste Heat Recovery Demonstration Project.

  7. Limb fracture during recovery from general anaesthesia : an often tragic complication of equine anaesthesia : clinical communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.B. Dzikiti

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A 10-year-old Thoroughbred mare was presented for lameness of the left hindlimb as a result of an apical fracture of the lateral proximal sesamoid bone. The mare was ultimately euthanased after suffering catastrophic fractures of the 3rd and 4th metatarsal bones of the contra-lateral hindlimb during an uncoordinated attempt to rise during recovery from general anaesthesia after undergoing arthroscopic surgery. The case report focuses mostly on horse anaesthesia-related mortality, anaesthetic procedure in the horse, possible causes of fractures in horses during recovery and ways in which rate of occurrence of these fractures can be minimised.

  8. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  9. Charge Catastrophe and Dielectric Breakdown During Exposure of Organic Thin Films to Low-Energy Electron Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thete, A.; Geelen, D.; van der Molen, S. J.; Tromp, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    The effects of exposure to ionizing radiation are central in many areas of science and technology, including medicine and biology. Absorption of UV and soft-x-ray photons releases photoelectrons, followed by a cascade of lower energy secondary electrons with energies down to 0 eV. While these low energy electrons give rise to most chemical and physical changes, their interactions with soft materials are not well studied or understood. Here, we use a low energy electron microscope to expose thin organic resist films to electrons in the range 0-50 eV, and to analyze the energy distribution of electrons returned to the vacuum. We observe surface charging that depends strongly and nonlinearly on electron energy and electron beam current, abruptly switching sign during exposure. Charging can even be sufficiently severe to induce dielectric breakdown across the film. We provide a simple but comprehensive theoretical description of these phenomena, identifying the presence of a cusp catastrophe to explain the sudden switching phenomena seen in the experiments. Surprisingly, the films undergo changes at all incident electron energies, starting at ˜0 eV .

  10. 36-Year-Old Female with Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Treated with Eculizumab: A Case Report and Review of Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Strakhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare but potentially life-threatening condition characterized by diffuse vascular thrombosis, leading to multiple organ failure developing over a short period of time in the presence of positive antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL. CAPS is a severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, developing in about 1% of cases of classic antiphospholipid syndrome, manifesting as microangiopathy, affecting small vessels of multiple organs. It is acute in onset, with majority of cases developing thrombocytopenia and less frequently hemolytic anemia and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Lupus anticoagulant and anticardiolipin antibodies have been reported as predominant antibodies associated with CAPS. Treatment options often utilized in CAPS include anticoagulation, steroids, plasma exchange, cyclophosphamide therapy, and intravenous immunoglobulin therapy. Even though the reported incidence of this condition is considered to be low, the mortality rate is approaching 50%. The high rate of mortality should warrant greater awareness among clinicians for timely diagnosis and treatment of this life-threatening condition. Studies have shown that complement activation plays a key role in the pathogenesis of aPL mediated thrombosis in CAPS. We report a case of a 36-year-old female admitted with clinical and laboratory findings consistent with CAPS successfully treated with eculizumab, a terminal complement inhibitor.

  11. Acute incidents during anaesthesia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Incidents can occur during induction, maintenance and emergence from anaesthesia. The following acute critical incidents are discussed in this article: • Anaphylaxis. • Aspiration ..... Already used in South Africa and Malawi, a scale-up of the technique is under way in Tanzania, Rwanda and Ghana. The report found that.

  12. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  13. Radiological incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobzova, L.; Novotny, J.

    2008-01-01

    In many countries a reporting system of radiological incidents to national regulatory body exists and providers of radiotherapy treatment are obliged to report all major and/or in some countries all incidents occurring in institution. State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS) is providing a systematic guidance for radiotherapy departments from 1997 by requiring inclusion of radiation safety problems into Quality assurance manual, which is the basic document for obtaining a license of SONS for handling with sources of ionizing radiation. For that purpose SONS also issued the recommendation 'Introduction of QA system for important sources in radiotherapy-radiological incidents' in which the radiological incidents are defined and the basic guidance for their classification (category A, B, C, D), investigation and reporting are given. At regular periods the SONS in co-operation with radiotherapy centers is making a survey of all radiological incidents occurring in institutions and it is presenting obtained information in synoptic communication (2003 Motolske dny, 2005 Novy Jicin). This presentation is another summary report of radiological incidents that occurred in our radiotherapy institutions during last 3 years. Emphasis is given not only to survey and statistics, but also to analysis of reasons of the radiological incidents and to their detection and prevention. Analyses of incidents in radiotherapy have led to a much broader understanding of incident causation. Information about the error should be shared as early as possible during or after investigation by all radiotherapy centers. Learning from incidents, errors and near misses should be a part of improvement of the QA system in institutions. Generally, it is recommended that all radiotherapy facilities should participate in the reporting, analyzing and learning system to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge throughout the whole country to prevent errors in radiotherapy.(authors)

  14. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk

    2015-01-01

    in the escitalopram group. No other between-group differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Escitalopram did not reduce pain upon ambulation 24 h after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. Future studies on optimal timing, dose, and duration of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment might be warranted....

  15. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  16. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  17. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  18. Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2001-01-01

    A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe

  19. Children, Literacy and Mass Trauma Teaching in Times of Catastrophic Events and on Going Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Denny

    2006-01-01

    This article focuses on children living in areas of armed conflict, catastrophic events and on-going emergencies. Based upon her ethnographic research, the author wants to try to share some insights into the complexities of the world in which children sometimes have to fight to live. Her intent is to create a space in which a discussion can take…

  20. The Media and the Fate of the Medicare Catastrophic Extension Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, David P.; Norem, Lois

    A study examined the relationships between the media, public opinion and the Medicare Catastrophic Act of 1988 which was repealed in 1989. Using the NEXIS electronic database, 11 years (1977-89) of news articles, opinion pieces, editorials, and letters to the editor were harvested in random sequence from the Associated Press news wire, the…

  1. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severeijns, R.; Vlaeyen, J.W.S.; Hout, M.A. van den

    2006-01-01

    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of

  2. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  3. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  4. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  5. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the investigation of the catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine used for underground reaming operations. The results of the investigation indicate that failure was due to the fracture of the 32 drive head bolts, 30...

  6. Genome Sequencing of Pediatric Medulloblastoma Links Catastrophic DNA Rearrangements with TP53 Mutations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rausch, Tobias; Jones, David T. W.; Zapatka, Marc; Stütz, Adrian M.; Zichner, Thomas; Weischenfeldt, Joachim; Jäger, Natalie; Remke, Marc; Shih, David; Northcott, Paul A.; Pfaff, Elke; Tica, Jelena; Wang, Qi; Massimi, Luca; Witt, Hendrik; Bender, Sebastian; Pleier, Sabrina; Cin, Huriye; Hawkins, Cynthia; Beck, Christian; von Deimling, Andreas; Hans, Volkmar; Brors, Benedikt; Eils, Roland; Scheurlen, Wolfram; Blake, Jonathon; Benes, Vladimir; Kulozik, Andreas E.; Witt, Olaf; Martin, Dianna; Zhang, Cindy; Porat, Rinnat; Merino, Diana M.; Wasserman, Jonathan; Jabado, Nada; Fontebasso, Adam; Bullinger, Lars; Rücker, Frank G.; Döhner, Konstanze; Döhner, Hartmut; Koster, Jan; Molenaar, Jan J.; Versteeg, Rogier; Kool, Marcel; Tabori, Uri; Malkin, David; Korshunov, Andrey; Taylor, Michael D.; Lichter, Peter; Pfister, Stefan M.; Korbel, Jan O.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic rearrangements are thought to occur progressively during tumor development. Recent findings, however, suggest an alternative mechanism, involving massive chromosome rearrangements in a one-step catastrophic event termed chromothripsis. We report the whole-genome sequencing-based analysis of

  7. Contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Kim, Yun-Ho; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2016-05-01

    Pain catastrophizing is a key variable that contributes to disability not only in chronic pain disorders but also after trauma. However, there is little evidence concerning the effect of catastrophizing on pain intensity and disability after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. We analyzed 35 patients with acute single-level osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures within 3 days of trauma. Data on demographics, education level, Charlson comorbidity index, pain catastrophizing scale (PCS) score, visual analog scale (VAS) score for back pain, and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were collected. VAS score for back pain and ODI were assessed at enrollment as well as at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after fracture. Each VAS score for back pain and ODI significantly improved compared to the initial values (P osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. As the compression fracture heals, however, age is the critical determinant of disability. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  9. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  10. Forest inventory, catastrophic events and historic geospatial assessments in the south

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis M. Jacobs

    2007-01-01

    Catastrophic events are a regular occurrence of disturbance to forestland in the Southern United States. Each major event affects the integrity of the forest inventory database developed and maintained by the Forest Inventory & Analysis Research Work Unit of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Some of these major disturbances through the years have...

  11. A Ensaistica de Robert Kurz: Catastrofismo e Lucidez (The Essays of Robert Kurz: Catastrophism and Lucidity).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Jose Carlos

    2000-01-01

    Uses an interpretive approach to the work of Robert Kurz, a German sociologist/essayist whose work has been translated and published in Brazil and who has advanced an apparently "catastrophic thesis" regarding the collapse of the "goods-producing society," or hyperdeveloped capitalism. (BT)

  12. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  13. Price and Welfare Effects of Catastrophic Forest Damage from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes

    1991-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) epidemics are periodically responsible for catastrophic levels of mortality to southern yellow pine forests. Traditional forest damage appraisal techniques developed for site specific economic analysis are theoretically weak since they do not consider aggregate impacts across ecosystems and related markets. Because the...

  14. Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; James K. Agee; Peter Fule; Jon E. Keeley; Carl Key; Stanley G. Kitchen; Richard Miller; Lisa A. Schulte

    2008-01-01

    The perception is that today's large fires are an ecological catastrophe because they burn vast areas with high intensities and severities. However, little is known of the ecological impacts of large fires on both historical and contemporary landscapes. The present paper presents a review of the current knowledge of the effects of large fires in the United States...

  15. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  16. Catastrophic windthrow in the Southern Appalachians: characteristics of pits and mounds and initial vegetation responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton D. Clinton; Corey R. Baker

    2000-01-01

    We characterized pit and mound (PM) topography resulting from catastrophic wind in the Coweeta Basin, and located 48 PM’s across a variety of forest types. Our measurements included pit length, width, and depth; and mound height, thickness, and width. Species of fallen trees were...

  17. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  18. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  19. Modeling demand for catastrophic flood risk insurance in Vietnam using choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Bui, T.; Tuan, T.; Magnussen, K.; Navrud, S.

    2014-01-01

    In a choice experiment, households in Vietnam are offered flood insurance to mitigate increasing catastrophic flood risks due to climate change. Participants are asked to choose their most preferred insurance policy given expected future flood and mortality risks, insurance cover and associated

  20. Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

    2017-08-29

    The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

  1. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    -event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...

  2. Recovery and money management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Michael; Serowik, Kristin L; Ablondi, Karen; Wilber, Charles; Rosen, Marc I

    2013-06-01

    Social recovery and external money management are important approaches in contemporary mental health care, but little research has been done on the relationship between the two or on application of recovery principles to money management for people at risk of being assigned a representative payee or conservator. Out of 49 total qualitative interviews, 25 transcripts with persons receiving Social Security insurance or Social Security disability insurance who were at risk of being assigned a money manager were analyzed to assess the presence of recognized recovery themes. The recovery principles of self-direction and responsibility were strong themes in participant comments related to money management. Money management interventions should incorporate peoples' recovery-related motivations to acquire financial management skills as a means to direct and assume responsibility for one's finances. Staff involved in money management should receive training to support client's recovery-related goals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Removing a broken guidewire in the hip joint: treatment options and recommendations for preventing an avoidable surgical catastrophe. A case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhijeet Ashok Salunke

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT CONTEXT: Hardware breakage during hip surgery can pose challenging and difficult problems for orthopedic surgeons. Apart from technical difficulties relating to retrieval of the broken hardware, complications such as adjacent joint arthritis and damage to neurovascular structures and major viscera can occur. Complications occurring during the perioperative period must be informed to the patient and proper documentation is essential. The treatment options must be discussed with the patient and relatives and the implant company must be informed about this untoward incident. CASE REPORT: We report a case of complete removal of the implant and then removal of the broken guidewire using a combination of techniques, including a cannulated drill bit, pituitary forceps and Kerrison rongeur. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest some treatment options and recommendations for preventing an avoidable surgical catastrophe.

  4. [Impact of "Seguro Popular" on catastrophic and out-of-pocket health expenditures in rural and urban Mexico, 2005-2008].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Salinas-Rodríguez, Aarón; Galárraga, Omar

    2011-01-01

    To estimate the effect of "Seguro Popular" (SP) on the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditure in the medium term. We used the 'Encuesta de Evaluación del SP' --SP Survey Evaluation-- (2005-2008). We analyzed the SP effect on the rural cohort during two years of follow-up (2006 and 2008) and in the urban cohort during one year of follow-up (2008). At the local level (regional clusters) we did not find an effect of the SP. At the household level we found a protective effect of SP on CHE and the OOP health payments in outpatient and hospitalization in rural areas; and a significant effect on the reduction of OOP health payments in outpatient services in urban zones. SP seems to be an effective program to protect poor household against out-of-pocket health expenditures in the medium term.

  5. Illness perceptions in patients with fibromyalgia and their relationship to quality of life and catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, C Paul; van Ittersum, Miriam W; Kaptein, Ad A; van Wijhe, Marten

    2008-11-01

    In the last decade, illness perceptions have been identified as important in the treatment of fibromyalgia (FM). The aim of the present study was to examine illness perceptions and use of the revised Illness Perception Questionnaire in patients with FM (IPQ-R-FM) and their relationship to quality of life and catastrophizing. A domain with specific causal attributions related to FM was added to the IPQ-R-FM. The psychometric properties of the IPQ-R-FM dimensions and attribution scales were examined. The causal domain, in which patients describe the most important perceived causes for their FM, was analyzed. To analyze the relationship with quality of life and catastrophizing, the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale were used. Fifty-one outpatients completed the questionnaires on 2 occasions, 3 weeks apart. FM was considered to be chronic and to have serious consequences; patients perceived little personal control and did not expect medical treatment to be effective. The psychometric properties of the IPQ-R-FM were found to be adequate. Patients most frequently attributed the causes of FM to an external somatic source (58%). Quality of life was related to experiencing more consequences attributable to FM. Catastrophizing was related to a limited understanding of the symptoms of FM, the more cyclical nature of FM, and an emotional representation. The IPQ-R-FM is a useful tool to assess illness perceptions in patients with FM. Illness perceptions are related to quality of life and catastrophizing; therefore, it seems important to assess and integrate illness perceptions into the management of patients with FM.

  6. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.

    1996-03-01

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  7. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, C. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.; O'Loughlin, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. B.; Freer, J. E.; Cloke, H. L.

    2014-06-01

    Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and

  8. Mothers' and fathers' responses to their child's pain moderate the relationship between the child's pain catastrophizing and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervoort, T; Huguet, A; Verhoeven, K; Goubert, L

    2011-04-01

    Preliminary evidence suggests that pain catastrophizing in children may be important in understanding how parents respond to their child's pain. However, no study has investigated whether parental responses, in turn, moderate the impact of child's catastrophizing upon pain outcomes. The present study was designed to address this, and investigated the association of the child's catastrophizing with different types of parental responses (ie, solicitousness, discouragement and coping promoting responses) and the extent to which parental responses moderate the association between the child's catastrophizing and disability. Participants were 386 school children and their parents. Analyses revealed significant associations between the child's pain catastrophizing and parental responses, but with mothers and fathers evidencing different patterns; ie, higher levels of the child's catastrophizing were significantly associated with lower levels of solicitousness by fathers, and with higher levels of discouragement by mothers. Moderation analyses indicated that father's solicitiousness moderated the association between catastrophizing and disability; the positive association between catastrophizing and the child's disability was further strengthened when fathers reported low levels of solicitousness, but became less pronounced when fathers reported high levels of solicitousness. Findings also revealed a moderating impact of mothers' and fathers' promotion of their child's well behaviour/coping. Specifically, the detrimental impact of child catastrophizing upon disability was less pronounced when parents reported high promotion of their child's well behaviours/coping. The findings of the present study suggest the importance of assessing and targeting parental responses to their child's pain to alter the adverse impact of the child's pain catastrophizing on pain outcomes. Copyright © 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights

  9. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  10. Chernobyl record. The definitive history of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mould, R.F

    2000-07-01

    The contents of Chernobyl Record have taken 14 years to compile and this period of time was necessary to enable information to be released from Soviet sources, measurements to be made in the environment, for estimation of radiation doses and for follow-up of the health of population groups which had been exposed. This time frame also includes the 10th anniversary conferences and the completion of joint projects of the European Commission, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It has also enabled me to visit the power plant site, Chernobyl town and Pripyat relatively soon after the accident and also some 10 years later: December 1987 and June 1998. Without such visits some of the photographs in this Record could not have been obtained. Information is also contained in these pages of comparisons of various aspects of the Chernobyl accident with data from the Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, the highly contaminated Techa river area in the Urals in Russia and the accident in Tokaimura, Japan in 1999. The first two chapters are introductory in that they describe terminology which is necessary for an understanding of the remaining chapters. Chapters 3-6 describes the early events: including those leading up to the explosion and then what followed in the immediate aftermath. Chapters 7-8 describe the Sarcophagus and the past and future of nuclear power for electricity generation, including the future of the Chernobyl power station. Chapters 9-11 consider the radiation doses received by various populations, including liquidators, evacuees and those living on contaminated territories: and the contamination of milk by {sup 131}I, and the contamination of other parts of the food chain by {sup 137}Cs. Chapters 12-14 describe the environmental impact of the accident, as does chapter 11. Chapters 15-18 detail the long-term effects on health, including not only the incidence of cancer, but also of non

  11. Chernobyl record. The definitive history of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R.F.

    2000-01-01

    The contents of Chernobyl Record have taken 14 years to compile and this period of time was necessary to enable information to be released from Soviet sources, measurements to be made in the environment, for estimation of radiation doses and for follow-up of the health of population groups which had been exposed. This time frame also includes the 10th anniversary conferences and the completion of joint projects of the European Commission, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It has also enabled me to visit the power plant site, Chernobyl town and Pripyat relatively soon after the accident and also some 10 years later: December 1987 and June 1998. Without such visits some of the photographs in this Record could not have been obtained. Information is also contained in these pages of comparisons of various aspects of the Chernobyl accident with data from the Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, the highly contaminated Techa river area in the Urals in Russia and the accident in Tokaimura, Japan in 1999. The first two chapters are introductory in that they describe terminology which is necessary for an understanding of the remaining chapters. Chapters 3-6 describes the early events: including those leading up to the explosion and then what followed in the immediate aftermath. Chapters 7-8 describe the Sarcophagus and the past and future of nuclear power for electricity generation, including the future of the Chernobyl power station. Chapters 9-11 consider the radiation doses received by various populations, including liquidators, evacuees and those living on contaminated territories: and the contamination of milk by 131 I, and the contamination of other parts of the food chain by 137 Cs. Chapters 12-14 describe the environmental impact of the accident, as does chapter 11. Chapters 15-18 detail the long-term effects on health, including not only the incidence of cancer, but also of non-malignant diseases and

  12. Critical incident stress management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J J; Childs, J; Gonsalves, K

    2000-10-01

    Recent studies have indicated implementation of the CISM Program has impacted and reduced the cost of workers' compensation claims for stress related conditions and the number of lost work days (Ott, 1997; Western Management Consultants, 1996). Occupational health professionals need to be ready to develop and implement a comprehensive critical incident stress management process in anticipation of a major event. The ability to organize, lead, or administer critical incident stress debriefings for affected employees is a key role for the occupational health professional. Familiarity with these concepts and the ability to identify a critical incident enhances value to the business by mitigating the stress and impact to the workplace. Critical Incident Stress Management Systems have the potential for decreasing stress and restoring employees to normal life function--a win/win situation for both the employees and the organization.

  13. Marine Animal Incident Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Large whale stranding, death, ship strike and entanglement incidents are all recorded to monitor the health of each population and track anthropogenic factors that...

  14. Police Incident Blotter (Archive)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Police Blotter Archive contains crime incident data after it has been validated and processed to meet Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) standards, published on a...

  15. Prediction of Safety Incidents

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

  16. 2011 Japanese Nuclear Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s RadNet system monitored the environmental radiation levels in the United States and parts of the Pacific following the Japanese Nuclear Incident. Learn about EPA’s response and view historical laboratory data and news releases.

  17. Information Security Incident Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. I. Persanov

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The present report highlights the points of information security incident management in an enterprise. Some aspects of the incident and event classification are given. The author presents his view of the process scheme over the monitoring and processing information security events. Also, the report determines a few critical points of the listed process and gives the practical recommendations over its development and optimization.

  18. The Fernald wet records recovery project: A case history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sterling, H.J.; Devir, B.R.; Hawley, R.A. [Fernald Environmental Restoration Management Corp., Cincinnati, OH (United States); Freesmeyer, M.T. [USDOE Ohio Field Office (United States)

    1995-06-22

    This paper discusses a project performed to recover wet records discovered in January 1995 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP). This paper discusses the emergency and record recovery phases of the project, the technical options considered for records recovery, and special measures which were required due to radiological contamination of the records. Also, the root causes and lessons learned from the incident, and path forward for future records management operations at Fernald, are discussed.

  19. Hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy: incidence and resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Kathryn; Elfenbein, Dawn; Schneider, David F; Chen, Herbert; Sippel, Rebecca S

    2015-08-01

    Parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels are often measured after thyroid surgery and are used to detect patients at risk for postoperative hypoparathyroidism. However, there is a lack of consensus in the literature about how to define the recovery of parathyroid gland function and when to classify hypoparathyroidism as permanent. The goals of this study were to determine the incidence of low postoperative PTH in total thyroidectomy patients and to monitor their time course to recovery of parathyroid gland function. We identified 1054 consecutive patients who underwent a total or completion thyroidectomy from January, 2006-December, 2013. Low PTH was defined as a PTH measurement hypoparathyroid if they had not recovered within 1 y. Recovery of parathyroid gland function was defined as PTH ≥10 pg/mL and no need for therapeutic calcium or activated vitamin D (calcitriol) supplementation to prevent hypocalcemic symptoms. Of 1054 total thyroidectomy patients, 189 (18%) had a postoperative PTH hypoparathyroidism. Surprisingly, 50% of those patients had recovery of PTH levels yet still required supplementation to avoid symptoms. Most patients with a low postoperative PTH recover function quickly, but it can take up to 1 y for full resolution. Hypoparathyroidism needs to be defined not only by PTH levels but also by medication requirements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  1. Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

    2017-01-18

    Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

  2. Socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment associated with non-communicable diseases in urban Hanoi, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kien, Vu Duy; Van Minh, Hoang; Giang, Kim Bao; Dao, Amy; Tuan, Le Thanh; Ng, Nawi

    2016-10-13

    The catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment indices offer guidance for developing appropriate health policies and intervention programs to decrease financial inequity. This study assesses socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in relation to self-reported non-communicable diseases (NCD) in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to March 2013 in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. We estimated catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment using information from 492 slum household and 528 non-slum households. We calculated concentration indexes to assess socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment. Factors associated with catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment were modelled using logistic regression analysis. The poor households in both slum and non-slum areas were at higher risk of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure, while only the poor households in slum areas were at higher risk of impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Households with at least one member reporting an NCD were significantly more likely to face catastrophic health expenditure (odds ratio [OR] = 2.4; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.8-4.0) and impoverishment (OR = 2.3; 95 % CI, 1.1-6.3) compared to households without NCDs. In addition, households in slum areas, with people age 60 years and above, and belonging to the poorest socioeconomic group were significantly associated with increased catastrophic health expenditure, while only households that lived in slum areas, and belonging to the poor or poorest socioeconomic groups were significantly associated with increased impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Financial interventions to prevent catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment should target poor households, especially those with family members suffering from NCDs, with older members and those located in slum

  3. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando; Allan Lavell

    2012-01-01

    Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact) aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact). Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécher...

  4. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2016-11-14

    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  5. Error catastrophe and phase transition in the empirical fitness landscape of HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Gregory R; Ferguson, Andrew L

    2015-03-01

    We have translated clinical sequence databases of the p6 HIV protein into an empirical fitness landscape quantifying viral replicative capacity as a function of the amino acid sequence. We show that the viral population resides close to a phase transition in sequence space corresponding to an "error catastrophe" beyond which there is lethal accumulation of mutations. Our model predicts that the phase transition may be induced by drug therapies that elevate the mutation rate, or by forcing mutations at particular amino acids. Applying immune pressure to any combination of killer T-cell targets cannot induce the transition, providing a rationale for why the viral protein can exist close to the error catastrophe without sustaining fatal fitness penalties due to adaptive immunity.

  6. New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareev, Fangil

    2008-03-01

    We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

  7. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  8. Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

    2017-11-01

    The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

  9. The decline and rise of coronary heart disease: understanding public health catastrophism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, David S; Greene, Jeremy A

    2013-07-01

    The decline of coronary heart disease mortality in the United States and Western Europe is one of the great accomplishments of modern public health and medicine. Cardiologists and cardiovascular epidemiologists have devoted significant effort to disease surveillance and epidemiological modeling to understand its causes. One unanticipated outcome of these efforts has been the detection of early warnings that the decline had slowed, plateaued, or even reversed. These subtle signs have been interpreted as evidence of an impending public health catastrophe. This article traces the history of research on coronary heart disease decline and resurgence and situates it in broader narratives of public health catastrophism. Juxtaposing the coronary heart disease literature alongside the narratives of emerging and reemerging infectious disease helps to identify patterns in how public health researchers create data and craft them into powerful narratives of progress or pessimism. These narratives, in turn, shape public health policy.

  10. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre-1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post-storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching......, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier-island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post-storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which...... resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present-day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic...

  11. The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonaki, Yotetsu

    2016-01-01

    The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

  12. SERVICE RECOVERY SEBAGAI UPAYA PENINGKATAN KUALITAS LAYANAN PERBANKAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuli Liestyana

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on an empirical investigation of service failure and service recoveryin retail banking. Different types of failures and recovery strategies used by banks wereidentified by using critical incident interviews. A survey questionnaire was then developed tomeasure customers’ perceptions of the magnitude of service failure and the effectiveness ofservice recovery strategies. A number of research hypothesis were tested relating to thecustomers’ evaluations of particular banking failure and recovery strategies, their previousexperience of failure, demographic variables, and relationship. 400 questionnaires werecollected from customers of the banks in Yogyakarta. Service failure and service recovery foundthat importance and effectiveness, customers’ assessment were different between theexperienced and the non-experienced customers in several items, also among the customerswith different demographic variables. The different level of customer commitment causedsignificant difference of customers’ demand of service recovery.

  13. Solvent recycle/recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paffhausen, M.W.; Smith, D.L.; Ugaki, S.N.

    1990-09-01

    This report describes Phase I of the Solvent Recycle/Recovery Task of the DOE Chlorinated Solvent Substitution Program for the US Air Force by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, EG G Idaho, Inc., through the US Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office. The purpose of the task is to identify and test recovery and recycling technologies for proposed substitution solvents identified by the Biodegradable Solvent Substitution Program and the Alternative Solvents/Technologies for Paint Stripping Program with the overall objective of minimizing hazardous wastes. A literature search to identify recycle/recovery technologies and initial distillation studies has been conducted. 4 refs.

  14. iASPP and chemoresistance in ovarian cancers: effects on paclitaxel-mediated mitotic catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lili; Siu, Michelle K Y; Wong, Oscar G W; Tam, Kai-Fai; Lu, Xin; Lam, Eric W-F; Ngan, Hextan Y S; Le, Xiao-Feng; Wong, Esther S Y; Monteiro, Lara J; Chan, Hoi-Yan; Cheung, Annie N Y

    2011-11-01

    iASPP is a specific regulator of p53-mediated apoptosis. Herein, we provided the first report on the expression profile of iASPP in ovarian epithelial tumor and its effect on paclitaxel chemosensitivity. Expression and amplification status of iASPP was examined in 203 clinical samples and 17 cell lines using immunohistochemistry, quantitative real-time PCR, and immunoblotting, and correlated with clinicopathologic parameters. Changes in proliferation, mitotic catastrophe, apoptosis, and underlying mechanism in ovarian cancer cells of different p53 status following paclitaxel exposure were also analyzed. The protein and mRNA expression of iASPP was found to be significantly increased in ovarian cancer samples and cell lines. High iASPP expression was significantly associated with clear cell carcinoma subtype (P = 0.003), carboplatin and paclitaxel chemoresistance (P = 0.04), shorter overall (P = 0.003), and disease-free (P = 0.001) survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed iASPP expression as an independent prognostic factor. Increased iASPP mRNA expression was significantly correlated with gene amplification (P = 0.023). iASPP overexpression in ovarian cancer cells conferred resistance to paclitaxel by reducing mitotic catastrophe in a p53-independent manner via activation of separase, whereas knockdown of iASPP enhanced paclitaxel-mediated mitotic catastrophe through inactivating separase. Both securin and cyclin B1/CDK1 complex were involved in regulating separase by iASPP. Conversely, overexpressed iASPP inhibited apoptosis in a p53-dependent mode. Our data show an association of iASPP overexpression with gene amplification in ovarian cancer and suggest a role of iASPP in poor patient outcome and chemoresistance, through blocking mitotic catastrophe. iASPP should be explored further as a potential prognostic marker and target for chemotherapy. ©2011 AACR

  15. Dedicated Work Opportunities of Municipal CHP Blocks in a Catastrophic Failure of the Power System State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ireneusz Grządzielski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Under conditions of a catastrophic system failure developing, in the Polish Power System (PPS, the creation of island systems powered by municipal CHP generating units may be one way to maintain the units’ production capacity. Block island load system BC 50 could create own and general EC Karolin and industrial plants located in the immediate vicinity of the thermal-electric power station receipts.

  16. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorre, H.

    1992-01-01

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  17. Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

  18. Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Assilzadeh, Hamid; Levy, Jason K.; Wang, Xin

    2010-01-01

    As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disaster...

  19. Subamolide A Induces Mitotic Catastrophe Accompanied by Apoptosis in Human Lung Cancer Cells

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Jen-Yu; Wen, Ching-Wen; Hsu, Ya-Ling; Lin, En-Shyh; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Chen, Chung-Yi; Kuo, Po-Lin

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the anticancer effects of subamolide A (Sub-A), isolated from Cinnamomum subavenium, on human nonsmall cell lung cancer cell lines A549 and NCI-H460. Treatment of cancer cells with Sub-A resulted in decreased cell viability of both lung cancer cell lines. Sub-A induced lung cancer cell death by triggering mitotic catastrophe with apoptosis. It triggered oxidant stress, indicated by increased cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and decreased glutathione le...

  20. Leave none to claim the land: aMalthusian catastrophe in Rwanda?

    OpenAIRE

    Verpoorten, Marijke

    2011-01-01

    More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified form. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure, natural resource scarcity, and conflict as well as its dependency on the socio-political and economic context. This softened version of Malthus' thesis has received little empirical support in cross-country studies. In contrast, a num...

  1. Leave None to Claim the Land. A Malthusian Catastrophe in Rwanda?

    OpenAIRE

    Verpoorten, Marijke

    2011-01-01

    More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified firm. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure , natural resource scarcity, and conflict as well as its dependency on the socio-political and economic context. This softened version of Mathus' thesis has received little emphirical support in cross-country studies. In contrast, a nu...

  2. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact. Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécheresse et au gel, ayant affectés le Chaco bolivien. Par ailleurs, cet article vise à montrer en quoi une analyse des facteurs de causalité et des impacts post-catastrophe déjà connus est nécessaire. Ces notions sont souvent associées aux aléas à grande échelle pouvant survenir brutalement, mais elles occultent la compréhension des besoins lors de crises qui surviennent à causes d’aléas diffus, extensifs, liés aux styles de vie. Il s’agit également de révéler en quoi les tentatives d’appréhender les catégories successives de risques, apparemment séquencées, en utilisant des mécanismes et des cadres institutionnels indépendants, sont vouées à l’échec. De fait, des relations existent entre risques principaux, risques contingents et risques futurs, et la gestion des risques de catastrophe ainsi que les mécanismes de développement nécessaires pour les réduire.

  3. The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

    OpenAIRE

    Gatti, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

  4. Food Safety Risk Assessment in Whole Food Supply Chain Based on Catastrophe Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shangmei Zhao; Xuemei Yang

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a food safety-risk assessment model for the whole food supply chain. In order to assess whole risk of food safety, this study designed the evaluation index system from the perspective of the food chain, which considered agricultural production, food processing and food consumption three stages. Based on catastrophe model and stability theory, the risk of agricultural production, food processing and food consumption is evaluated. This study got the va...

  5. Catastrophizing and anxiety sensitivity mediate the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, E Amy; Jones, Elizabeth; Hopkins, Christina M; Ruggieri, Madelyn; Hruska, Alesha

    2016-08-01

    Stress-induced or "emotional eating" contributes to increased caloric intake and weight gain, yet models examining psychosocial factors that promote and sustain this behavior are incomplete. There is a need to identify explicit, clinically-relevant mechanisms of emotional eating behavior. Pain is a common stressor associated with increased weight and, potentially, altered eating behaviors. The present study applies the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM) of pain to examine processes that may explain the relationship between pain and increased weight while also providing the opportunity to examine specific mechanisms that may encourage eating during a variety of stressors. Our aim is to better understand the impact of pain on eating behavior and the potential for the FAM to improve our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that promote eating during times of duress. A survey of 312 adults explored the link between pain experience and stress-induced eating, further examining the mediating effects of the psychological aspects of the FAM (e.g., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophizing, and pain-related fear). 24% of respondents reported persistent pain, and had significantly higher BMIs than their pain-free peers. All three FAM components were positively correlated with measures of emotional, external, and restrained eating. Anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing significantly mediated the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating behavior, while anxiety sensitivity alone mediated the relationship between persistent pain and external eating. Findings suggest pain may be associated with increased likelihood for emotional eating and that characteristics from FAM, in particular anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing, may mediate the relationship between the presence of persistent pain and emotional eating behavior. Evidence-based treatments targeting anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing could be useful to address emotional eating in individuals struggling

  6. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  7. Radiation incidents in dentistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovelock, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Most dental practitioners act as their own radiographer and radiologist, unlike their medical colleagues. Virtually all dental surgeons have a dental X-ray machine for intraoral radiography available to them and 40% of dental practices have equipment for dental panoramic tomography. Because of the low energy of X-ray equipment used in dentistry, radiation incidents tend to be less serious than those associated with other aspects of patient care. Details of 47 known incidents are given. The advent of the 1985 and 1988 Ionising Radiation Regulations has made dental surgeons more aware of the hazards of radiation. These regulations, and general health and safety legislation, have led to a few dental surgeons facing legal action. Because of the publicity associated with these court cases, it is expected that there will be a decrease in radiation incidents arising from the practice of dentistry. (author)

  8. Effects of Catastrophic Insect Outbreaks on the Harvesting Solutions of Dahurian Larch Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal harvesting under pest outbreak risk was studied on a set of even-aged Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii stands in northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. The effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks caused by the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus on the economic harvesting plan are compared through both deterministic and stochastic cases. Stand simulation is based on an individual-tree growth system. A scenario approach is applied when simulating the effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks. Insect damage is assumed to be a Poisson process with an average rate of 0.1 per year. One hundred scenarios of insect damage are created using the Poisson process to simulate the distribution of bare land value of each of the optimal regimes. Numerical results show that the optimal rotation is shortened with an increasing probability of a catastrophe. The average bare land values in the stochastic case are approximately 14.8% to 22.9% lower. Numbers of thinnings are decreased for most plots when seeking a highest bare land value, compared to the deterministic optima. If given a constant thinning rate, increasing risk-taking shortens the optimum rotation, as the model set used.

  9. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-22

    Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

  10. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  11. Depletion of Paraspeckle Protein 1 Enhances Methyl Methanesulfonate-Induced Apoptosis through Mitotic Catastrophe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangjing Gao

    Full Text Available Previously, we have shown that paraspeckle protein 1 (PSPC1, a protein component of paraspeckles that was involved in cisplatin-induced DNA damage response (DDR, probably functions at the G1/S checkpoint. In the current study, we further examined the role of PSPC1 in another DNA-damaging agent, methyl methanesulfonate (MMS-induced DDR, in particular, focusing on MMS-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. First, it was found that MMS treatment induced the expression of PSPC1. While MMS treatment alone can induce apoptosis, depletion of PSPC1 expression using siRNA significantly increased the level of apoptosis following MMS exposure. In contrast, overexpressing PSPC1 decreased the number of apoptotic cells. Interestingly, morphological observation revealed that many of the MMS-treated PSPC1-knockdown cells contained two or more nuclei, indicating the occurrence of mitotic catastrophe. Cell cycle analysis further showed that depletion of PSPC1 caused more cells entering the G2/M phase, a prerequisite of mitosis catastrophe. On the other hand, over-expressing PSPC1 led to more cells accumulating in the G1/S phase. Taken together, these observations suggest an important role for PSPC1 in MMS-induced DDR, and in particular, depletion of PSPC1 can enhance MMS-induced apoptosis through mitotic catastrophe.

  12. Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Li, Yangfan; Kappas, Martin; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell

    2018-02-08

    Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes ("Less resilient" or "More resilient") were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in "Less resilient" system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. INEX 5 - General information. INEX 5 Exercise on Notification, Communication and Interfaces Related to Catastrophic Events Involving Radiation or Radiological Materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okyar, Halil Burcin; Lazo, Ted

    2014-01-01

    The INEX series of international nuclear emergency exercises, organised under the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), has proven successful in testing, investigating and improving the arrangements for responding to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies at the national and international level. Previous INEX exercises focussed largely on national and international aspects of early phase management of emergencies at nuclear power plants and more recently, in INEX 4, on issues in consequence management and transition to recovery in response to malicious acts involving the release of radioactive materials in an urban setting. Since the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, it has been recognised that notification, communication, and identifying and obtaining resources during catastrophic events can be difficult and the need for established protocols, policies, and procedures among and between country entities is critical for minimizing negative impacts. Therefore, the benefit and goal of INEX 5 is to provide a basis for enhancing national and international emergency management arrangements related to notification, communication and obtaining resources through the exchange of exercise outcomes and experiences from participating countries, in order to identify good practice and common issues to be addressed. INEX 5 will address emergency management aspects of notification, communication and interfaces between and among country and international organizations. INEX 5 is set up as a table top exercise with three levels of discussion for participants (prior to a release, recognizing/validating a release, and impacts to the radiological event from a catastrophic natural event). Countries can develop additional materials to expand this table top to a full field exercise if preferred. Prior to initiation of the table top, participants will be provided clear guidance about how the exercise will be conducted. Because this exercise may involve government agencies and

  14. FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This is a search site for FEMA's Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC). A DRC is a readily accessible facility or mobile office set up by FEMA where applicants may go for...

  15. Recovery Audit Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Recovery Audit Programs mission is to identify and correct Medicare improper payments through the efficient detection and collection of overpayments made on...

  16. Recovery Action Mapping Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Recovery Action Mapping Tool is a web map that allows users to visually interact with and query actions that were developed to recover species listed under the...

  17. Upset Prevention and Recovery for Unimpaired and Impaired Aircraft, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of the project is the development of an on-board envelope estimation, protection and upset recovery tool to address loss of control incidents in...

  18. Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers' Ability and Willingness to Report to Work for the Department of Health During Catastrophic Disasters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schechter, Shelly

    2007-01-01

    .... According to recent studies of paid healthcare professionals, approximately forty percent may be unable or unwilling to report to work during catastrophic disasters, but these questions have not yet...

  19. Ruminative and catastrophizing cognitive styles mediate the association between daily hassles and high anxiety in Hong Kong adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Siu Mui; Chan, Sau Kam; Kwok, Wai Wai

    2015-02-01

    This study assessed rumination, catastrophizing and daily hassles as predictors of anxiety when controlling for depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents reporting high anxiety. Adolescents aged 12-18 (N = 2,802, mean age of 14.9) completed the Screen For Child Anxiety-Related Emotional Disorders. With a total score of 30 as the cutoff, a group of high anxiety adolescents was identified (a prevalence rate of 28.02%). Path analyses results showed that amongst the high anxiety boys, catastrophizing but not rumination was a positive predictor of anxiety and it mediated the effects of daily hassles on anxiety. In the high anxiety girls, both rumination and catastrophizing predicted anxiety but only catastrophizing was the mediator between daily hassles and anxiety. It is suggested that such gender differences in cognitive responses styles should be considered in cognitive-behavioral therapeutic approaches designed to help adolescents showing high anxiety.

  20. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003, Blackout throughout the Northeast. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  1. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Howard Street tunnel fire Baltimore City, Maryland -- July 18, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the tunnel fire in Baltimore, Maryland on July 18, 2001, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilitie...

  2. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Baltimore, MD - Howard Street Tunnel fire - July 18th, 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, : California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on : transportation system ...

  3. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003 blackout that affected the Northeastern United States. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation...

  4. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  5. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  6. Impact of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on the trend of catastrophic health expenditure in Chinese rural households: results from nationally representative surveys from 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Biao; Huo, Minghe; Wang, Zhiqiang; Chen, Yongjie; Fu, Rong; Liu, Meina; Meng, Qun

    2018-02-08

    To evaluate the trend of catastrophic health expenses (CHE) for inpatient care in relation to the commencement of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in rural China from 2003 to 2013, and the roles of NCMS in protecting affected households from CHE. We assessed the 10-year trend of the incidence and severity of CHE in rural households with hospitalised members using data from the Chinese National Health Services Survey. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate the OR and 95% CI of the association between incidence rates of CHE ([Formula: see text]) and NCMS reimbursement. The incidence and severity of CHE after NCMS reimbursement both decreased and their changes increased rapidly from 2003 to 2013. After adjustment of the covariates, [Formula: see text] before reimbursement was significantly higher than that after reimbursement, and the OR (95% CI) was 1.50 (1.24 to 1.81), 1.79 (1.69 to 1.90) and 2.94 (2.77 to 3.11) in 2003, 2008 and 2013, respectively. The incidence and severity of CHE both reduced after NCMS reimbursements in each year. Excluding some confounding factors, [Formula: see text] was significantly associated with NCMS reimbursement. NCMS partly protected the rural households with hospitalised members from CHE. However, the inequalities between different income groups still existed. [Formula: see text] in rural households with hospitalised members was still rather high in 2003, 2008 and 2013 even though they were covered by NCMS. This study will provide suggestions for further reforms in China and guidance for other low-income/middle-income countries. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Incidents in nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franzen, L.F.; Wienhold, W.

    1976-09-01

    With reference to the incident list of the Ministry for the period 1971-74, Prof. Bechert has expressed a lot of questions and statements in a letter to the Government. The letter is quoted in full. Inadequate conclusions drawn by Prof. Bechert in connection with quotations from daily newspapers and other documents are put right. (HP) [de

  8. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  9. Fire Incident Reporting Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-02-01

    the result of an incident that requires (or should require) treatment by a practitioner of medicine , a registered emergency medical technician, or a...UNANNOUNCED AIRCRAFT EMERGENCYS ~~PRIOR TO TAKE OFF OR AFTERLADN 5 FUEL OPERATIONS REQUIRING 1AREING G A FIRE10 ARRESTING GEAR’BARRIER FR . ENGAGEMENTS AND

  10. Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spottiswoode Bruce

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS; the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study is to provide proof-of-concept for the development and testing of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Methods Two interlinked experimental studies will be conducted. Study 1 aims to objectively ascertain if neurophysiological changes occur in the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing, when catastrophizing FMS subjects are exposed to visuals of exercise activities. Study 2 aims to ascertain the preliminary efficacy and feasibility of exposure to visuals of exercise activities as a treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS subjects. Twenty subjects will be selected from a group of FMS patients attending the Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa and randomly allocated to either the VRET (intervention group or waiting list (control group. Baseline neurophysiological activity for subjects will be collected in study 1 using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. In study 2, clinical improvement in pain catastrophizing will be measured using fMRI (objective and the pain catastrophizing scale (subjective. Discussion The premise is if exposing FMS patients to visuals of various exercise activities trigger the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing; then as a treatment, repeated exposure to visuals of the exercise activities using a VRET program could possibly decrease exercise-related pain catastrophizing

  11. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

    1996-02-01

    The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

  12. Unravelling the Relationship Between Parent and Child PTSD and Pediatric Chronic Pain: the Mediating Role of Pain Catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, Alexandra; Soltani, Sabine; Pavlova, Maria; Noel, Melanie

    2018-02-01

    Clinically elevated rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms are found among many youth with chronic pain and their parents and are linked to worse child pain outcomes. Conceptual models of mutual maintenance in pediatric PTSD and chronic pain posit that child and parent pain catastrophizing are key mechanisms underlying this co-occurrence. To our knowledge, the current study is the first to examine child and parent pain catastrophizing as potential mediators in the child PTSD-child pain and parent PTSD-child pain relationships among a cohort of youth with chronic pain. One hundred two children (72.5% female, mean age=13.5 years), recruited from a tertiary level chronic pain program, and 1 of their parents participated. At intake, parents completed psychometrically sound self-report measures of PTSD symptoms and catastrophizing about child pain. Children completed self-report measures of PTSD symptoms, pain catastrophizing, pain interference, and pain intensity. Findings revealed that relationships between child PTSD and child pain as well as parent PTSD and child pain were mediated by child (but not parent) pain catastrophizing. This suggests that children's catastrophic thinking about pain may explain how child and parent PTSD symptoms influence children's experience of chronic pain and is a potential target in family-based interventions to improve pain and mental health outcomes. Consistent with conceptual models of co-occurring PTSD and chronic pain, children's catastrophic thinking about child pain mediated relationships between parent and child PTSD symptoms and child chronic pain outcomes. Child pain catastrophizing may be a fruitful target in interventions to improve children's chronic pain and mental health outcomes. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  14. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-12-01

    Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

  15. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

    2004-01-01

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  16. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure and poverty related to out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Bangladesh-an estimation of financial risk protection of universal health coverage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Jahangir A M; Ahmed, Sayem; Evans, Timothy G

    2017-10-01

    The Sustainable Development Goals target to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC), including financial risk protection (FRP) among other dimensions. There are four indicators of FRP, namely incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), mean positive catastrophic overshoot, incidence of impoverishment and increase in the depth of poverty occur for high out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare spending. OOP spending is the major payment strategy for healthcare in most low-and-middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh. Large and unpredictable health payments can expose households to substantial financial risk and, at their most extreme, can result in poverty. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of OOP spending on CHE and poverty, i.e. status of FRP for UHC in Bangladesh. A nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 was used to determine household consumption expenditure and health-related spending in the last 30 days. Mean CHE headcount and its concentration indices (CI) were calculated. The propensity of facing CHE for households was predicted by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The poverty headcount was estimated using 'total household consumption expenditure' and such expenditure without OOP payments for health in comparison with the poverty-line measured by cost of basic need. In absolute values, a pro-rich distribution of OOP payment for healthcare was found in urban and rural Bangladesh. At the 10%-threshold level, in total 14.2% of households faced CHE with 1.9% overshoot. 16.5% of the poorest and 9.2% of the richest households faced CHE. An overall pro-poor distribution was found for CHE (CI = -0.064) in both urban and rural households, while the former had higher CHE incidences. The poverty headcount increased by 3.5% (5.1 million individuals) due to OOP payments. Reliance on OOP payments for healthcare in Bangladesh should be reduced for poverty alleviation in urban and rural Bangladesh in order to

  17. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enyi Etiaba

    Full Text Available A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services.An exit survey of adults (18+years attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra. In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively.The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (p<0.0001. Rural dwellers incurred more CHE for all categories of costs compared to urban dwellers, but the costs were statistically significant for only outpatient costs.ART subsidization is not enough to eliminate economic burden of treatment on HIV patients. Service decentralization to reduce travel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable

  18. Development of a cumulative psychosocial factor index for problematic recovery following work-related musculoskeletal injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

    2012-01-01

    Psychosocial variables such as fear of movement, depression, and pain catastrophizing have been shown to be important prognostic factors for a wide range of pain-related outcomes. The potential for a cumulative relationship between different elevated psychosocial factors and problematic recovery following physical therapy has not been fully explored. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the level of risk for problematic recovery following work-related injuries is associated with the number of elevated psychosocial factors. This was a prospective cohort study. Two hundred two individuals with subacute, work-related musculoskeletal injuries completed a 7-week physical therapy intervention and participated in testing at treatment onset and 1 year later. An index of psychosocial risk was created from measures of fear of movement, depression, and pain catastrophizing. This index was used to predict the likelihood of experiencing problematic recovery in reference to pain intensity and return-to-work status at the 1-year follow-up. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the number of prognostic factors was a significant predictor of persistent pain and work disability at the 1-year follow-up. Chi-square analysis revealed that the risk for problematic recovery increased for patients with elevated levels on at least 1 psychosocial factor and was highest when patients had elevated scores on all 3 psychosocial factors. The physical therapy interventions used in this study were not standardized. This study did not include a specific measure for physical function. The number of elevated psychosocial factors present in the subacute phase of recovery has a cumulative effect on the level of risk for problematic recovery 1 year later. This research suggests that a cumulative prognostic factor index could be used in clinical settings to improve prognostic accuracy and to facilitate clinical decision making.

  19. Impact disruption and recovery of the deep subsurface biosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cockell, Charles S.; Voytek, Mary A.; Gronstal, Aaaron L

    2012-01-01

    Although a large fraction of the world's biomass resides in the subsurface, there has been no study of the effects of catastrophic disturbance on the deep biosphere and the rate of its subsequent recovery. We carried out an investigation of the microbiology of a 1.76 km drill core obtained from......, by fracturing subsurface rocks, impacts can extend the depth of the biosphere. This phenomenon would have provided deep refugia for life on the more heavily bombarded early Earth, and it shows that the deeply fractured regions of impact craters are promising targets to study the past and present habitability...... of Mars. Key Words: Asteroid—Impacts—Subsurface biosphere—Subterranean environment—Geobiology. Astrobiology 12, 231–246....

  20. Piloted Simulation of a Model-Predictive Automated Recovery System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, James (Yuan); Litt, Jonathan; Sowers, T. Shane; Owens, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.