WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic incident recovery

  1. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  2. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  3. The Chernobyl catastrophe is the most terrible civil nuclear incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The 4th nuclear reactor of the Chernobyl NPP exploded on 26 April 1986, 20 years ago. It's the most terrible nuclear civil accident of all times. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident led to contamination of 3,1 million ha of arable land, 1,5 million ha of natural pasture land, 3,5 million ha of forests and changed the lifestyle for millions of people in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. It is well known that the mortality in the contaminated areas (infant mortality by cancer) drastically increased. The Chernobyl catastrophe is presented , such as a sad example for humanity, a complex political international, economical, social and, particular, ecological problem according to the traditional and new studies for the development of the nucleotide contaminated territories: 1. Financing of safety of stopped working 4th nuclear reactor (security of covering system) and of work another 3 blocks at the Chernobyl NPP. Detailed control of international financial support for guarantee the safety, security of the Chernobyl NPP and sustainable development for rehabilitation of the affected zones and people. 2. It should be marked increase in medical, demographic analysis and in social, economical protection of the people in the contaminated areas. 3. Analysis and synthesis, monitoring of the long-time data results due to environmental, ecological, social and political consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. 4. Protection from the possible terrorist (extra) actions and (inter) damage or incident function of the Chernobyl plant, such as an old generation nuclear power. 5. Planned budget for future studies in the affected territories and flexibility actually realization of budget (State and International). 6. Nuclear refuse and aria/water protection in the Ukraine, Belarus and Russia contaminated zones. 7. Risk evaluation of not good function of NPPs which are situated in Russia, Ukraine and in another places (always remembering that the Chernobyl catastrophe is the

  4. Assessing the utility of work team theory in a unified command environment at catastrophic incidents

    OpenAIRE

    Templeton, Douglas R.

    2005-01-01

    CHDS State/Local Since 9/11 much progress has been made by Federal, State and local authorities to prepare for future Catastrophic Incidents. The March 1, 2004 release of the National Incident Management System (NIMS) mandated the use of Unified Command and Incident Management Teams (IMTs) for multi-agency, multi-jurisdictional incidents. These teams have strong potential for improving complex incident management. However, the potential for interagency conflict threatens effectual IMT func...

  5. A sustainable training strategy for improving health care following a catastrophic radiological or nuclear incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenthal, Daniel J; Bader, Judith L; Christensen, Doran; Koerner, John; Cuellar, John; Hinds, Sidney; Crapo, John; Glassman, Erik; Potter, A Bradley; Singletary, Lynda

    2014-02-01

    The detonation of a nuclear device in a US city would be catastrophic. Enormous loss of life and injuries would characterize an incident with profound human, political, social, and economic implications. Nevertheless, most responders have not received sufficient training about ionizing radiation, principles of radiation safety, or managing, diagnosing, and treating radiation-related injuries and illnesses. Members throughout the health care delivery system, including medical first responders, hospital first receivers, and health care institution support personnel such as janitors, hospital administrators, and security personnel, lack radiation-related training. This lack of knowledge can lead to failure of these groups to respond appropriately after a nuclear detonation or other major radiation incident and limit the effectiveness of the medical response and recovery effort. Efficacy of the response can be improved by getting each group the information it needs to do its job. This paper proposes a sustainable training strategy for spreading curricula throughout the necessary communities. It classifies the members of the health care delivery system into four tiers and identifies tasks for each tier and the radiation-relevant knowledge needed to perform these tasks. By providing education through additional modules to existing training structures, connecting radioactive contamination control to daily professional practices, and augmenting these systems with just-in-time training, the strategy creates a sustainable mechanism for giving members of the health care community improved ability to respond during a radiological or nuclear crisis, reducing fatalities, mitigating injuries, and improving the resiliency of the community.

  6. Recovery from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franco, David Oliver; Yang, Lynn I.; Hammer, Ann E.

    2012-06-01

    To restore regional lifeline services and economic activity as quickly as possible after a chemical, biological or radiological incident, emergency planners and managers will need to prioritize critical infrastructure across many sectors for restoration. In parallel, state and local governments will need to identify and implement measures to promote reoccupation and economy recovery in the region. This document provides guidance on predisaster planning for two of the National Disaster Recovery Framework Recovery Support Functions: Infrastructure Systems and Economic Recovery. It identifies key considerations for infrastructure restoration, outlines a process for prioritizing critical infrastructure for restoration, and identifies critical considerations for promoting regional economic recovery following a widearea disaster. Its goal is to equip members of the emergency preparedness community to systematically prioritize critical infrastructure for restoration, and to develop effective economic recovery plans in preparation for a widearea CBR disaster.

  7. Catastrophic Fault Recovery with Self-Reconfigurable Chips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Will Hua; Marzwell, Neville I.; Chau, Savio N.

    2006-01-01

    Mission critical systems typically employ multi-string redundancy to cope with possible hardware failure. Such systems are only as fault tolerant as there are many redundant strings. Once a particular critical component exhausts its redundant spares, the multi-string architecture cannot tolerate any further hardware failure. This paper aims at addressing such catastrophic faults through the use of 'Self-Reconfigurable Chips' as a last resort effort to 'repair' a faulty critical component.

  8. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  9. Analysis of Environmental Contamination resulting from Catastrophic Incidents: Part two: Building Laboratory Capability by Selecting and Developing Analytical Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples with analytically diverse types including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface resid...

  10. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  11. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  12. Factors influencing recovery and restoration following a chemical incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Fernández, A; Wyke, S; Brooke, N; Duarte-Davidson, R

    2014-11-01

    Chemicals are an important part of our society. A wide range of chemicals are discharged into the environment every day from residential, commercial and industrial sources. Many of these discharges do not pose a threat to public health or the environment. However, global events have shown that chemical incidents or accidents can have severe consequences on human health, the environment and society. It is important that appropriate tools and technical guidance are available to ensure that a robust and efficient approach to developing a remediation strategy is adopted. The purpose of remediation is to protect human health from future exposure and to return the affected area back to normal as soon as possible. There are a range of recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) that are applicable to a broad range of chemicals and incidents. Recovery options should be evaluated according to their appropriateness and efficacy for removing contaminants from the environment; however economic drivers and social and political considerations often influence decision makers on which remedial actions are implemented during the recovery phase of a chemical incident. To date, there is limited information in the literature on remediation strategies and recovery options that have been implemented following a chemical incident, or how successful they have been. Additional factors that can affect the approach taken for recovery are not well assessed or understood by decision makers involved in the remediation and restoration of the environment following a chemical incident. The identification of this gap has led to the development of the UK Recovery Handbook for Chemical Incidents to provide a framework for choosing an effective recovery strategy. A compendium of practical evidence-based recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) for inhabited areas, food production systems and water environments has also been developed and is included in the chemical

  13. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  14. Rapid recovery from catastrophic paraneoplastic anti-NMDAR encephalitis secondary to an ovarian teratoma following ovarian cystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantipalakorn, Charuwan; Soontornpun, Atiwat; Pongsuvareeyakul, Tip; Tongsong, Theera

    2016-01-01

    This report is aimed to describe a life-threatening case of anti-N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) encephalitis secondary to ovarian teratoma with rapid recovery in 1 day after the removal of the tumour. A 23-year-old woman presented with sudden headache, personality changes and seizure. After neurological assessment, limbic or herpes encephalitis was provisionally diagnosed and treated with intravenous immunoglobulin, acyclovir and steroids. The patient had progressive severe neurological symptoms, requiring prolonged intubation and mechanical ventilation. An anti-NMDAR antibody test revealed positive in serum and cerebrospinal fluid at 3 weeks of admission. Pelvic ultrasound examination and CT scan revealed bilateral small ovarian teratomas. Bilateral ovarian cystectomy was performed by open surgery. The patient showed rapid improvement and no longer needed intubation 2 days after the operation. In conclusion, we described a catastrophic case of ovarian teratoma-associated encephalitis with delayed diagnosis but rapid recovery after ovarian cystectomy. This information can probably be helpful to neurologists and gynaecologists. PMID:27511754

  15. 76 FR 54004 - Agency Information Collection (Report of Medical, Legal, and Other Expenses Incident to Recovery...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-30

    ... AFFAIRS Agency Information Collection (Report of Medical, Legal, and Other Expenses Incident to Recovery... of Veterans Affairs, will submit the collection of information abstracted below to the Office of... information collection and its expected cost and burden; it includes the actual data collection...

  16. Psychological impact and recovery after involvement in a patient safety incident: a repeated measures analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gerven, Eva; Bruyneel, Luk; Panella, Massimiliano; Euwema, Martin; Sermeus, Walter; Vanhaecht, Kris

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine individual, situational and organisational aspects that influence psychological impact and recovery of a patient safety incident on physicians, nurses and midwives. Design Cross-sectional, retrospective surveys of physicians, midwives and nurses. Setting 33 Belgian hospitals. Participants 913 clinicians (186 physicians, 682 nurses, 45 midwives) involved in a patient safety incident. Main outcome measures The Impact of Event Scale was used to retrospectively measure psychological impact of the safety incident at the time of the event and compare it with psychological impact at the time of the survey. Results Individual, situational as well as organisational aspects influenced psychological impact and recovery of a patient safety incident. Psychological impact is higher when the degree of harm for the patient is more severe, when healthcare professionals feel responsible for the incident and among female healthcare professionals. Impact of degree of harm differed across clinicians. Psychological impact is lower among more optimistic professionals. Overall, impact decreased significantly over time. This effect was more pronounced for women and for those who feel responsible for the incident. The longer ago the incident took place, the stronger impact had decreased. Also, higher psychological impact is related with the use of a more active coping and planning coping strategy, and is unrelated to support seeking coping strategies. Rendered support and a support culture reduce psychological impact, whereas a blame culture increases psychological impact. No associations were found with job experience and resilience of the health professional, the presence of a second victim support team or guideline and working in a learning culture. Conclusions Healthcare organisations should anticipate on providing their staff appropriate and timely support structures that are tailored to the healthcare professional involved in the incident and to the specific

  17. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  18. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  19. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in Denmark the article investigates the Palestinian temporality of Nakba that is equivalent to a time of security in the sense that it is concerned with existential threats and emergency action. The Arabic term Nakba literally means catastrophe and is in Pale......Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in Denmark the article investigates the Palestinian temporality of Nakba that is equivalent to a time of security in the sense that it is concerned with existential threats and emergency action. The Arabic term Nakba literally means catastrophe...... and is in Palestinian national discourse used to designate the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, when more than half of the Palestinian population were expelled from their homeland – a reverse national myth about how Palestine failed to come into being. Yet, according to Palestinians in Denmark, the Nakba cannot be relegated...... of the Nakba in 2008 and clashes between the police and young Palestinians in 2006, the article demonstrates how Palestinians in Denmark seek to reverse the reverse myth of 1948 by seizing contemporary catastrophes to enact not only past and present Nakbas, but also potential futures. The article concludes...

  20. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  1. Estimation of incidence and recovery rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia from longitudinal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekessy, A.; Molineaux, L.; Storey, J.

    1976-01-01

    A method is described of estimating the malaria incidence rate ĥ and the recovery rate r from longitudinal data. The method is based on the assumption that the phenomenon of patent parasitaemia can be represented by a reversible two-state catalytic model; it is applicable to all problems that can be represented by such a model. The method was applied to data on falciparum malaria from the West African savanna and the findings suggested that immunity increases the rate of recovery from patent parasitaemia by a factor of up to 10, and also reduces the number of episodes of patent parasitaemia resulting from one inoculation. Under the effect of propoxur, ĥ varies with the estimated man-biting rate of the vector while r̂ increases, possibly owing to reduced super-infection. PMID:800968

  2. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  3. Coherent catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, D. J.; Clube, S. V. M.; Napier, W. M.; Steel, D. I.

    We review the theoretical and observational evidence that, on timescales relevant to mankind, the prime collision hazard is posed by temporally correlated impacts (coherent catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 2-10 4 yr) rather than random ones (stochastic catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 5-10 8 yr). The mechanism whereby coherent incursions into and through the terrestrial atmosphere occur is described as being the result of giant cometary bodies arriving in orbits with perihelia in the inner solar system. Hierarchical fragmentation of such large (100 km-plus) bodies — due to thermal stresses near perihelion, collisions in the asteroid belt, or passages through the Jovian Roche radius — results in numerous ˜kilometre-sized objects being left in short-period orbits, and appearing in telescopic searches as Apollo-type asteroids. Many more smaller objects, in the 10-100 metre size range and only recently observed, by the Spacewatch team, are expected to be in replenished clusters in particular orbits as a result of continuing disintegrations of large, differentiated, cometary objects. Gravitational perturbations by Jupiter bring these clusters around to have a node at 1 AU in a cyclic fashion, leading to impacts at certain times of year every few years during active periods lasting a few centuries, such periods being separated by intervals of a few millennia. Furthermore, fragmentations within the hierarchy result in significant bombardment commensurabilities ( Δt ˜ 10-10 2 yr) during active periods occurring at random intervals ( Δt ˜ 10 2-10 3 yr). It appears that the Earth has been subject to such impacts since the break-up of such a comet ˜2×10 4 years ago; currently we are not passing through a high-risk epoch, although some phenomena originating in the products of this break-up have been observed in the 20th century. This most recent hierarchical disintegration, associated with four well-known meteor showers and termed the Taurid Complex, is now recognized as resulting

  4. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  5. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  6. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Iridium-192 (192Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m2, some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  7. Considering the unthinkable—A review and discussion of current international law and suggestions regarding how we deal with a catastrophic incident in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer-Downie, Darcy

    2013-12-01

    It is now clear that private enterprise and not nationally funded space agencies will be the driving force behind development of space for the "benefit" of private enterprise and the general public. It is also not unreasonable to say that in the next 20-30 years we will see the public accessing space via sub-orbital flights, orbital excursions, orbiting hotels and possibly even hotels located on a celestial body. The existing principles regarding the rescue and return of "astronauts" was never fit for purpose and is certainly not appropriate for this new era of private space activity. Activities in space are dangerous and the travelling public is generally risk adverse. So how do we balance the obvious risks associated with space travel, against the societal desire to seek adventures in space and with the prevailing risk adverse culture? It is now time to seriously consider the development of international safety standards for space vehicles and habitations in order to ensure that rescue and return from a space excursion is a reality for passengers and crew. If we fail to do so then the scenario set out below may become a tragic reality. Catastrophic ScenarioConsider a scenario in which a space hotel loses a significant amount of its in-orbit life support capability. Rescue is underway but it will take time. The Captain realises that there is not enough oxygen on board for all to survive until rescue. What if anything can be done?

  8. Recovery from a chemical weapons accident or incident: A concept paper on planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herzenberg, C.L.; Haffenden, R.; Lerner, K.; Meleski, S.A.; Tanzman, E.A. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Lewis, L.M. [US Dept. of Agriculture (United States); Hemphill, R.C. [Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (United States); Adams, J.D. [US Environmental Protection Agency (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Emergency planning for an unintended release of chemical agent from the nation`s chemical weapons stockpile should include preparation for. the period following implementation of immediate emergency response. That period -- the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage -- is the subject of this report. The report provides an overview of the role of recovery, reentry, and restoration planning in the Chemical Stockpile Emergency Preparedness Program (CSEPP), describes the transition from immediate emergency response to restoration, and analyzes the legal framework that would govern restoration activities. Social, economic, and administrative issues, as well as technical ones, need to be considered in the planning effort. Because of possible jurisdictional conflicts, appropriate federal, state, and local agencies need to be included in a coordinated planning process. Advance consideration should be given to the pertinent federal and state statutes and regulations. On the federal level, the principal statutes and regulations to be considered are those associated with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act; and the National Environmental Policy Act. This report recommends that extensive preaccident planning be undertaken for the recovery, reentry, and restoration stage and outlines several key issues that should be considered in that planning. The need for interagency cooperation and coordination at all levels of the planning process is emphasized.

  9. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2016-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  10. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    for the girl talk is centred on catastrophes or Nakbas, as they are referred to in Arabic. Not only al-Nakba of 1948 when the Palestinians were displaced from their homeland, but also the many recurring wars and the individual catastrophes that involve dead family members, rapes, loss of children and abusive...

  11. Habitability and cosmic catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold; McKay, Christopher P

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic cosmic events such as asteroid impacts appear in the range of some 100 million years and have drastically affected evolution. The author discusses whether and how such events could have occurred in recently found extrasolar planetary systems.

  12. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shereef, Rawhya R; El-Abedin, Zein; Abdel Aziz, Rashad; Talat, Ibrahim; Saleh, Mohammed; Abdel-Samia, Hanna; Sameh, Amro; Sharha, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Management of this patient is discussed in detail. PMID:27375916

  13. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  14. Entanglement in quantum catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Emary, C; Brandes, T; Emary, Clive; Lambert, Neill; Brandes, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    We classify entanglement singularities for various two-mode bosonic systems in terms of catastrophe theory. Employing an abstract phase-space representation, we obtain exact results in limiting cases for the entropy in cusp, butterfly, and two-dimensional catastrophes. We furthermore use numerical results to extract the scaling of the entropy with the non-linearity parameter, and discuss the role of mixing entropies in more complex systems.

  15. Catastrophes in surface scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theoretical and experimental studies concerning atom-surface interactions in the energy range from hyperthermal to approximately 100 eV are reported. An extended study of the interaction of low energetic alkalis (sodium and potassium) with a silver crystal is presented. Finally the ultimate experimental result in this research, the first observation of catastrophes in surface scattering, is shown. The results clearly indicate the strength of the catastrophe analysis in gas-surface scattering. 218 refs.; 40 figs.; 170 schemes; 4 tabs

  16. Anthropogenic impacts to the recovery of the Mexican gray wolf with a focus on trapping-related incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Trey T.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.

    2013-01-01

    Concerns regarding the potential negative impacts of regulated furbearer trapping to reintroduced Mexican gray wolves (Canis lupus baileyi), led to an executive order prohibiting trapping in the New Mexico, USA, portion of the Blue Range Wolf Recovery Area. This ban was to last for 6 months and required an evaluation of the risk posed to wolves by traps and snares legally permitted in New Mexico. We reviewed potential threats to wolves in the Blue Range Wolf Recovery Area, including threats associated with regulated furbearer trapping. One hundred Mexican gray wolf mortalities have been documented during the reintroduction effort (1998–2011). Of those mortalities with a known cause, >81% were human-caused resulting from illegal shooting (n = 43), vehicle collisions (n = 14), lethal removal by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS; n = 12), non-project-related trapping (n = 2), project-related trapping (n = 1), and legal shooting by the public (n = 1). Ten wolves died due to unknown causes. The remaining 17 mortalities were a result of natural causes (e.g., starvation, disease). An additional 23 wolves were permanently, but non-lethally, removed from the wild by the USFWS. Of 13 trapping incidents in New Mexico that involved non-project trappers (i.e., trappers not associated with USFWS or U.S. Department of Agriculture-Wildlife Services), 7 incidents are known to have resulted in injuries to wolves: 2 wolves sustained injuries severe enough to result in leg amputations and 2 additional wolves died as a result of injuries sustained. Foothold traps with rubber-padded jaws and properly set snares may reduce trap-related injuries to Mexican gray wolves; however, impacts caused by trapping are overshadowed by other anthropogenic impacts (e.g., illegal shooting, non-lethal permanent removal, and vehicle collisions).

  17. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  18. Catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Dorjdagva, Javkhlanbayar; Batbaatar, Enkhjargal; Svensson, Mikael; Dorjsuren, Bayarsaikhan; Kauhanen, Jussi

    2016-01-01

    Background The social health insurance coverage is relatively high in Mongolia; however, escalation of out-of-pocket payments for health care, which reached 41 % of the total health expenditure in 2011, is a policy concern. The aim of this study is to analyse the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures and to measure the rate of impoverishment from health care payments under the social health insurance scheme in Mongolia. Methods We used the data from the Household Socio-Economic Survey...

  19. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  20. Valuing Catastrophic Citrus Losses

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine "just compensation" when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of quantifying producer losses is estimating chang...

  1. Status Update on the NCRP Scientific Committee SC 5-1 Report: Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Incidents - 13450

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, S.Y. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    In August 2008, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its final Protective Action Guide (PAG) for radiological dispersal device (RDD) and improvised nuclear device (IND) incidents. This document specifies protective actions for public health during the early and intermediate phases and cleanup guidance for the late phase of RDD or IND incidents, and it discusses approaches to implementing the necessary actions. However, while the PAG provides specific guidance for the early and intermediate phases, it prescribes no equivalent guidance for the late-phase cleanup actions. Instead, the PAG offers a general description of a complex process using a site-specific optimization approach. This approach does not predetermine cleanup levels but approaches the problem from the factors that would bear on the final agreed-on cleanup levels. Based on this approach, the decision-making process involves multifaceted considerations including public health, the environment, and the economy, as well as socio-political factors. In an effort to fully define the process and approach to be used in optimizing late-phase recovery and site restoration following an RDD or IND incident, DHS has tasked the NCRP with preparing a comprehensive report addressing all aspects of the optimization process. Preparation of the NCRP report is a three-year (2010-2013) project assigned to a scientific committee, the Scientific Committee (SC) 5-1; the report was initially titled, Approach to Optimizing Decision Making for Late- Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Terrorism Incidents. Members of SC 5-1 represent a broad range of expertise, including homeland security, health physics, risk and decision analysis, economics, environmental remediation and radioactive waste management, and communication. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and guided by a recent process led by the White House through a Principal Level Exercise (PLE), the optimization approach has since

  2. Status Update on the NCRP Scientific Committee SC 5-1 Report: Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Incidents - 13450

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In August 2008, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its final Protective Action Guide (PAG) for radiological dispersal device (RDD) and improvised nuclear device (IND) incidents. This document specifies protective actions for public health during the early and intermediate phases and cleanup guidance for the late phase of RDD or IND incidents, and it discusses approaches to implementing the necessary actions. However, while the PAG provides specific guidance for the early and intermediate phases, it prescribes no equivalent guidance for the late-phase cleanup actions. Instead, the PAG offers a general description of a complex process using a site-specific optimization approach. This approach does not predetermine cleanup levels but approaches the problem from the factors that would bear on the final agreed-on cleanup levels. Based on this approach, the decision-making process involves multifaceted considerations including public health, the environment, and the economy, as well as socio-political factors. In an effort to fully define the process and approach to be used in optimizing late-phase recovery and site restoration following an RDD or IND incident, DHS has tasked the NCRP with preparing a comprehensive report addressing all aspects of the optimization process. Preparation of the NCRP report is a three-year (2010-2013) project assigned to a scientific committee, the Scientific Committee (SC) 5-1; the report was initially titled, Approach to Optimizing Decision Making for Late- Phase Recovery from Nuclear or Radiological Terrorism Incidents. Members of SC 5-1 represent a broad range of expertise, including homeland security, health physics, risk and decision analysis, economics, environmental remediation and radioactive waste management, and communication. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and guided by a recent process led by the White House through a Principal Level Exercise (PLE), the optimization approach has since

  3. High Altitude Platforms for Disaster Recovery: Capabilities, Strategies, and Techniques for Providing Emergency Telecommunications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton

    2008-05-01

    Natural disasters and terrorist acts have significant potential to disrupt emergency communication systems. These emergency communication networks include first-responder, cellular, landline, and emergency answering services such as 911, 112, or 999. Without these essential emergency communications capabilities, search, rescue, and recovery operations during a catastrophic event will be severely debilitated. High altitude platforms could be fitted with telecommunications equipment and used to support these critical communications missions once the catastrophic event occurs. With the ability to be continuously on station, HAPs provide excellent options for providing emergency coverage over high-risk areas before catastrophic incidents occur. HAPs could also provide enhanced 911 capabilities using either GPS or reference stations. This paper proposes potential emergency communications architecture and presents a method for estimating emergency communications systems traffic patterns for a catastrophic event.

  4. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  5. Catastrophic pediatric sports injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckstead, Eugene F; Patel, Dilip R

    2002-06-01

    The high school sports of wrestling, gymnastics, ice hockey, baseball, track, and cheerleading should receive closer attention to prevent injury. Safer equipment and sport-specific conditioning should be provided and injuries strictly monitored. Greater attention must also be paid to swimming and diving techniques, and continued observation is needed for heat stroke and heat intolerance in sports such as football, wrestling, basketball, track and field, and cross-country. An increased awareness of commotio cordis in sports other than baseball should include ice hockey, football, track field events, and lacrosse. American football because of the sheer numbers and associated catastrophic injury potential must continue to be monitored at the highest medical levels! PMID:12119866

  6. Catastrophic medical expenditure risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; O'Donnell, Owen

    2016-03-01

    We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is consistent with a model of reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. Unlike the risk premium, the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses, and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised, but not actuarially fair, insurance. An empirical illustration using data from seven Asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries. In general, risk is higher among poorer, rural and chronically ill populations.

  7. Vitality of Neural Networks under Reoccurring Catastrophic Failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardi, Shira; Goldental, Amir; Amir, Hamutal; Vardi, Roni; Kanter, Ido

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic failures are complete and sudden collapses in the activity of large networks such as economics, electrical power grids and computer networks, which typically require a manual recovery process. Here we experimentally show that excitatory neural networks are governed by a non-Poissonian reoccurrence of catastrophic failures, where their repetition time follows a multimodal distribution characterized by a few tenths of a second and tens of seconds timescales. The mechanism underlying the termination and reappearance of network activity is quantitatively shown here to be associated with nodal time-dependent features, neuronal plasticity, where hyperactive nodes damage the response capability of their neighbors. It presents a complementary mechanism for the emergence of Poissonian catastrophic failures from damage conductivity. The effect that hyperactive nodes degenerate their neighbors represents a type of local competition which is a common feature in the dynamics of real-world complex networks, whereas their spontaneous recoveries represent a vitality which enhances reliable functionality. PMID:27530974

  8. Vitality of Neural Networks under Reoccurring Catastrophic Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardi, Shira; Goldental, Amir; Amir, Hamutal; Vardi, Roni; Kanter, Ido

    2016-08-01

    Catastrophic failures are complete and sudden collapses in the activity of large networks such as economics, electrical power grids and computer networks, which typically require a manual recovery process. Here we experimentally show that excitatory neural networks are governed by a non-Poissonian reoccurrence of catastrophic failures, where their repetition time follows a multimodal distribution characterized by a few tenths of a second and tens of seconds timescales. The mechanism underlying the termination and reappearance of network activity is quantitatively shown here to be associated with nodal time-dependent features, neuronal plasticity, where hyperactive nodes damage the response capability of their neighbors. It presents a complementary mechanism for the emergence of Poissonian catastrophic failures from damage conductivity. The effect that hyperactive nodes degenerate their neighbors represents a type of local competition which is a common feature in the dynamics of real-world complex networks, whereas their spontaneous recoveries represent a vitality which enhances reliable functionality.

  9. Vitality of Neural Networks under Reoccurring Catastrophic Failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardi, Shira; Goldental, Amir; Amir, Hamutal; Vardi, Roni; Kanter, Ido

    2016-08-17

    Catastrophic failures are complete and sudden collapses in the activity of large networks such as economics, electrical power grids and computer networks, which typically require a manual recovery process. Here we experimentally show that excitatory neural networks are governed by a non-Poissonian reoccurrence of catastrophic failures, where their repetition time follows a multimodal distribution characterized by a few tenths of a second and tens of seconds timescales. The mechanism underlying the termination and reappearance of network activity is quantitatively shown here to be associated with nodal time-dependent features, neuronal plasticity, where hyperactive nodes damage the response capability of their neighbors. It presents a complementary mechanism for the emergence of Poissonian catastrophic failures from damage conductivity. The effect that hyperactive nodes degenerate their neighbors represents a type of local competition which is a common feature in the dynamics of real-world complex networks, whereas their spontaneous recoveries represent a vitality which enhances reliable functionality.

  10. Catastrophic disasters and the design of disaster medical care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, L E; Reutershan, T P

    1987-09-01

    The National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) is aimed at medical care needs resulting from catastrophic earthquakes, which may cause thousands of deaths and injuries. Other geophysical events may cause great mortality, but leave few injured survivors. Weather incidents, technological disasters, and common mass casualty incidents cause much less mortality and morbidity. Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the local medical care system. Supplemental care is provided by disaster relief forces; this care should be adapted to prevalent types of injuries. Most care should be provided at the disaster scene through supplemental medical facilities, while some can be provided by evacuating patients to distant hospitals. Medical response teams capable of stabilizing, sorting, and holding victims should staff supplemental medical facilities. The NDMS program includes hospital facilities, evacuation assets, and medical response teams. The structure and capabilities of these elements are determined by the medical care needs of the catastrophic disaster situation. PMID:3631673

  11. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  12. Managing a modern fleet of oil spill recovery vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The lessons of the catastrophic Prince Williams Sound oil spill in 1989 and the progress that has been made since then, were recounted. The adoption of the Incident Command System, a project management system for oil spill response, has been one of the major steps taken to improve preparedness for combatting oil spills and to maximize the on-water oil recovery. Various recent oil spills in the U.S. have been studied in order to assess equipment, training and management capabilities. Experience indicates marked improvement in managing on-water recovery and other spill cleaning activities

  13. Developing a Regional Recovery Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.; Olson, Jarrod; Stein, Steven L.; Clark, Rebecca; Kelly, Heather; Sheline, Jim; Tietje, Grant; Williamson, Mark; Woodcock, Jody

    2011-09-01

    Abstract A biological attack would present an unprecedented challenge for local, state, and federal agencies; the military; the private sector; and individuals on many fronts ranging from vaccination and treatment to prioritization of cleanup actions to waste disposal. To prepare the Seattle region to recover from a biological attack, the Seattle Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) partners collaborated with military and federal agencies to develop a Regional Recovery Framework for a Biological Attack in the Seattle Urban Area. The goal was to reduce the time and resources required to recover and restore wide urban areas, military installations, and other critical infrastructure following a biological incident by providing a coordinated systems approach. Based on discussions in small workshops, tabletop exercises, and interviews with emergency response agency staff, the partners identified concepts of operation for various areas to address critical issues the region will face as recovery progresses. Key to this recovery is the recovery of the economy. Although the Framework is specific to a catastrophic, wide-area biological attack using anthrax, it was designed to be flexible and scalable so it could also serve as the recovery framework for an all-hazards approach. The Framework also served to coalesce policy questions that must be addressed for long-term recovery. These questions cover such areas as safety and health, security, financial management, waste management, legal issues, and economic development.

  14. Pain catastrophizing: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartana, Phillip J; Campbell, Claudia M; Edwards, Robert R

    2009-05-01

    Pain catastrophizing is conceptualized as a negative cognitive-affective response to anticipated or actual pain and has been associated with a number of important pain-related outcomes. In the present review, we first focus our efforts on the conceptualization of pain catastrophizing, highlighting its conceptual history and potential problem areas. We then focus our discussion on a number of theoretical mechanisms of action: appraisal theory, attention bias/information processing, communal coping, CNS pain processing mechanisms, psychophysiological pathways and neural pathways. We then offer evidence to suggest that pain catastrophizing represents an important process factor in pain treatment. We conclude by offering what we believe represents an integrated heuristic model for use by researchers over the next 5 years; a model we believe will advance the field most expediently. PMID:19402782

  15. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism...

  16. Bank strategies in catastrophe settings: empirical evidence and policy suggestions

    OpenAIRE

    Leonardo Becchetti; Stefano Castriota; Pierluigi Conzo

    2012-01-01

    The poor in developing countries are the most exposed to natural catastrophes and microfinance organizations may potentially ease their economic recovery. Yet, no evidence on MFIs strategies after natural disasters exists. We aim to fill this gap by building adataset which merges bank records of loans, issued before and after the 2004 Tsunami by a Sri Lankan MFI recapitalized by Western donors, with detailed survey data on the corresponding borrowers. Evidence of effective post-calamity inter...

  17. THE CATASTROPHIC RISK REINSURANCE: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tatarina

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with foreign experience of catastrophic risks reinsurance. The directions to ensure savings and increase capitalization of insurance companies under reinsurance protection. The necessary of catastrophic risk reinsurance in Ukraine has brought.

  18. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  19. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  20. Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

    2010-02-01

    On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

  1. The Diseconomies of Environmental Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2006-01-01

    Four factors are almost certain to lead to one or more catastrophes unless major remedial measures are taken. (1) China has replaced the United States as the world s leading consumer of resources, except for oil (Brown, 2006a), but China is already a major factor in the world market in this area also. Together, China and the United States consume approximately half the world s resources and the global population is still increasing on a finite planet. (2) The over 20% global ecological oversh...

  2. Catastrophic Evaporation of Rocky Planets

    CERN Document Server

    Perez-Becker, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Short-period exoplanets can have dayside surface temperatures surpassing 2000 K, hot enough to vaporize rock and drive a thermal wind. Small enough planets evaporate completely. We construct a radiative-hydrodynamic model of atmospheric escape from strongly irradiated, low-mass rocky planets, accounting for dust-gas energy exchange in the wind. Rocky planets with masses 2000 K are found to disintegrate entirely in 0.1 M_Earth/Gyr --- our model yields a present-day planet mass of < 0.02 M_Earth or less than about twice the mass of the Moon. Mass loss rates depend so strongly on planet mass that bodies can reside on close-in orbits for Gyrs with initial masses comparable to or less than that of Mercury, before entering a final short-lived phase of catastrophic mass loss (which KIC 12557548b has entered). Because this catastrophic stage lasts only up to a few percent of the planet's life, we estimate that for every object like KIC 12557548b, there should be 10--100 close-in quiescent progenitors with sub-da...

  3. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according to...... the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  4. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

    2015-07-01

    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.

  5. Catastrophe mechanism & classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅰ) --Fold catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The mechanism of discontinuity behavior has important significance in the study of thermal science,such as fire,combustion,explosion and heat transfer.This sort of discontinuity behavior and the catastrophe caused by system nonlinearity may be equivalently classified according to the catastrophe model promulgated by catastrophe theory.Under the conditions of uniform temperature and thermal isolation,the self-ignition behavior of a Semenov System can be viewed as a result of the fold catastrophe of the system.

  6. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  7. Catastrophic disruption experiments: Recent results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, G.; Ryan, E. V.; Nakamura, A. M.; Giblin, I.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the progress in the field of catastrophic disruption experiments over the past 4 years, since the publication of the review paper by Fujiwara et al. (1989). We describe the development of new techniques to produce shattering impacts relevant to the study of the collisional evolution of the asteroids, and summarize the results from numerous experiments which have been performed to date, using a variety of materials for both the impactor and the targets. Some of these, such as ice-on-ice, loose aggregates and pressurized targets, are quite new and have provided novel and exciting results. Some of the gaps existing previously in the data on fragment ejection-angle distributions, as well as translational and rotational velocity fields (including fine fragments) have been filled, and these new results will be surveyed.

  8. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  9. Catastrophizing delays the analgesic effect of distraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Claudia M; Witmer, Kenny; Simango, Mpepera; Carteret, Alene; Loggia, Marco L; Campbell, James N; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A; Edwards, Robert R

    2010-05-01

    Behavioral analgesic techniques such as distraction reduce pain in both clinical and experimental settings. Individuals differ in the magnitude of distraction-induced analgesia, and additional study is needed to identify the factors that influence the pain relieving effects of distraction. Catastrophizing, a set of negative emotional and cognitive processes, is widely recognized to be associated with increased reports of pain. We sought to evaluate the relationship between catastrophizing and distraction analgesia. Healthy participants completed three sessions in a randomized order. In one session (Pain Alone), pain was induced by topical application of a 10% capsaicin cream and simultaneous administration of a tonic heat stimulus. In another session (Pain+Distraction), identical capsaicin+heat application procedures were followed, but subjects played video games that required a high level of attention. During both sessions, verbal ratings of pain were obtained and participants rated their degree of catastrophizing. During the other session (Distraction Alone) subjects played the video games in the absence of any pain stimulus. Pain was rated significantly lower during the distraction session compared to the "Pain Alone" session. In addition, high catastrophizers rated pain significantly higher regardless of whether the subjects were distracted. Catastrophizing did not influence the overall degree of distraction analgesia; however, early in the session high catastrophizers had little distraction analgesia, though later in the session low and high catastrophizers rated pain similarly. These results suggest that both distraction and catastrophizing have substantial effects on experimental pain in normal subjects and these variables interact as a function of time.

  10. Environmental Catastrophes Under Time-inconsistent Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, T.O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-in

  11. Fracto—emissions in Catastrophic Cleavage Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HonglaiTAN; WeiYANG

    1996-01-01

    Fracto-emissions accompanying crack propagation are observed in the recent experiments.The energy impulses during and after fracture stimulate the fracto-emissions.Model concerning atomic scale cleavage processes is proposed to formulate a catastrophic fracure theory relevant to these phenomena.A criterion for catastrophic jump of the cleavage potential is applied to representative crystals.

  12. Catastrophe mechanism and classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅱ) -- Cusp catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The catastrophe mechanisms of thermal performance characteristics of the firebox gas combustion system were analyzed from the viewpoint of catastrophe theory. The mathematical models of cusp catastrophe were established. The relationship between the thermal performance characteristics and the changing of system control variables was studied. The cusp catastrophe mechanisms of typical performance characteristics, such as kicking and lagging, and those of transition from quenching to igniting were explained. It was illustrated that discontinuity behavior of thermal systems with an "S" motion feature curve and lagging feature may be equivalently classified according to the topology of cusp catastrophe, influenced by two groups of independent control variables.

  13. Catastrophes in Scale-Free Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; WANG Bing-Hong

    2005-01-01

    @@ An alternative model about cascading occurrences caused by perturbation is established to search the mechanism because catastrophes in networks occur. We investigate the avalanche dynamics of our model on two-dimensional Euclidean lattices and scale-free networks and find that the avalanche dynamic behaviour is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. The simulation results show that the catastrophes occur much more frequently in scale-free networks than those in Euclidean lattices, and the greatest catastrophe in scale-free networks is much more serious than that in Euclidean lattices. Furthermore, we have studied how to reduce the catastrophes'degree, and have schemed out an effective strategy, called the targeted safeguard strategy for scale-free networks.

  14. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  15. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Boyer

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1 the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2 the implicit (or explicit presence of government entities acting as (reinsurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  16. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Liu; Jihong Xiao; Lizhao Yan; Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property C...

  17. The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck; Neng Wang

    2013-01-01

    How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe? We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of shocks and their size distribution, the...

  18. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  19. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  20. Research on catastrophe control in 1-D system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Yao; TANG Li-ping; LI Xue-lian

    2003-01-01

    A new method of catastrophe control is described in one dimension nonlinear system. Catastrophe control based on catastrophe theory is a brand new area for control theory. A certain catastrophe is created at a desired location by appropriate control, which has preferred properties. Washout filter is presented and applied to preserve the original equilibrium of a system. Washout filter aided dynamic feedback controller is developed for the creation of catastrophe, and an example is given to illustrate the process. Catastrophe control may provide a new way of designing warning signals of impending collapse or catastrophe for monitoring and control purposes.

  1. Pricing for Catastrophe Bonds Based on Expected-value Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the catastrophes cannot be avoided and result in huge economic losses, therefore the compensation issue for catastrophe losses become an important research topic. Catastrophe bonds can effectively disperse the catastrophe risks which mainly undertaken by the government and the insurance companies currently and focus on capital more effectively in broad capital market, therefore to be an ideal catastrophe securities product. This study adopts Expectancy Theory to supplement and improve the pricing of catastrophe bonds based on Value Theory. A model of expected utility is established to determine the conditions of the expected revenue R of catastrophe bonds. The pricing model of the value function is used to get the psychological value of R,U (R-R‾, for catastrophe bonds. Finally, the psychological value is improved by the value according to expected utility and this can more accurately evaluate catastrophe bonds at a reasonable price. This research can provide decision-making for the pricing of catastrophe bonds.

  2. Downward Catastrophe of Solar Magnetic Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-07-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  3. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  4. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  5. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  6. Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem

    CERN Document Server

    Cirkovic, Milan M

    2007-01-01

    One of the mainstays of the controversial "rare Earth" hypothesis is the "Goldilocks problem" regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth's biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research.

  7. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun;

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...... of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...... coverage before and after calamities. This definition of catastrophic area from ICT point of view has no one tried before. Network parameters behavioural graphs are also important. This paper presents only behavioural part....

  8. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  9. Catastrophic chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ek Han; Henry, Isabelle M; Ravi, Maruthachalam; Bradnam, Keith R; Mandakova, Terezie; Marimuthu, Mohan Pa; Korf, Ian; Lysak, Martin A; Comai, Luca; Chan, Simon Wl

    2015-01-01

    Genome instability is associated with mitotic errors and cancer. This phenomenon can lead to deleterious rearrangements, but also genetic novelty, and many questions regarding its genesis, fate and evolutionary role remain unanswered. Here, we describe extreme chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination, a process resulting from hybridization of Arabidopsis plants expressing different centromere histones H3. Shattered chromosomes are formed from the genome of the haploid inducer, consistent with genomic catastrophes affecting a single, laggard chromosome compartmentalized within a micronucleus. Analysis of breakpoint junctions implicates breaks followed by repair through non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) or stalled fork repair. Furthermore, mutation of required NHEJ factor DNA Ligase 4 results in enhanced haploid recovery. Lastly, heritability and stability of a rearranged chromosome suggest a potential for enduring genomic novelty. These findings provide a tractable, natural system towards investigating the causes and mechanisms of complex genomic rearrangements similar to those associated with several human disorders. PMID:25977984

  10. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    up to the present time. Available information should be presented in a form suitable for perception by wide public. Different categories of population (children, workers of various professional groups, pensioners) need practical consultations and recommendations on how to provide safe life conditions. For almost 15 years passed after the Chernobyl catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. Moreover, there is a tendency for understatement of the catastrophe consequences, bringing it down to the ordinary NPP incident. At the same time the radioecological, medico-biological, socio-psychological, economic and other Chernobyl consequences show that the problems born by the Chernobyl catastrophe on April 26, 1986 will remain actual for long. The unique situation as a result of the Chernobyl NPP accident must be used completely for improving the knowledge about the possible consequences of the similar catastrophes, for investigation and accumulation of experience of practical realisation of protection measures complex under the conditions of large-scale radioactive contamination of the territory. It creates good prerequisites for effective and mutually beneficial international co-operation on overcoming of the catastrophe consequences

  11. Mindfulness, Acceptance and Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Maaike J.; Steinhagen, Hannemike E.; Versteegen, Gerbrig J.; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Sanderman, Robbert

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to exami

  12. Novel percolation transitions and coupled catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Raissa

    Collections of interdependent networks are at the core of modern society, spanning physical, biological and social systems. Simple mathematical models of the structure and function of networks can provide important insights into real-world systems, enhancing our ability to steer and control them. Here our focus is on abrupt changes in networks, due both to phase transitions and to jumping between bi-stable equilibria. We begin with an overview of novel classes of percolation phase transitions that result from repeated, small interventions intended to delay the transition. These new phenomena allow us to extend percolation approaches to modular networks, Brownian motion, and cluster growth dynamics. We then focus on abrupt transitions due to a system jumping between bi-stable equilibria, modeled as a cusp catastrophe in nonlinear dynamics. We show that when systems that each undergo a cusp catastrophe interact, we can observe a new phenomena of catastrophe-hopping leading to non-local cascading failures. Here an intermediate system facilitates the propagation of a sudden change or collapse, and we show that catastrophe hopping is consistent with the outbreak of protests observed during the Arab Spring of 2011.

  13. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale: Development and Validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J. L.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A series of 4 studies involving 547 college students and community adults report the development of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, its validity with clinical and nonclinical samples, and its correlation with measures of related constructs. The scale provides information about heightened responses to aversive procedures or events. (SLD)

  14. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    .... See the Notice related to 7 CFR part 3015, subpart V, published at 48 FR 29115, June 24, 1983... the Federal Register at 76 FR 50929-50931. The public was afforded 60 days to submit written comments... Federal Crop Insurance Corporation 7 CFR Part 402 RIN 0563-AC31 Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  15. Technological catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mankind energy demands are expected to be in 2050 more than twice of present level. But a World Conference on Environment in Kyoto is expressed the concern about the releases of greenhouses gases which could cause the climate changes. Accordingly the contamination of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is becoming of an urgent problem of our civilisation. Obviously a nuclear energy is assumed to be a main aid of solving such energy problem. But everybody knows the society is in a conflict situation- there is a powerful movement of 'green' forces against the nuclear power. Some people are trying firmly to stop or even to ban the development of the nuclear power in some countries. An analysis of the ground causes of such social phenomenon as anti-nuclear movement can assist us in its management and future actions for development of nuclear power. It is possible to distinguish economical, social, scientific roots of nuclear opposition. Role of mass media in development of the public anti-nuclear mood is very important. Nobody doubts that a public acceptance is a key point for future nuclear energy. Recent anti-nuclear problems can be solved by calm confident interaction with public, by careful substitution of old troublesome image of the nuclear power on view of modem controllable technology with high level of safety and protection of environment. In such actions very important to convince of public that the such modem requirements of the nuclear safety as - no large radioactive release, no emergency evacuation, no permanent relocation of population, no restrictions on food consumption- are implemented in the correspondent design decisions based on defence-in-depth concept. And everybody have to know that in the case of any operational incident all consequences of disturbances will be mitigated and real risks will be scornful small. Problem of the plants decommissioning is a very serious. But it has to be solved on the base of optimisation of money expenses and

  16. Recovery from Iridium-192 flakes of a radioactive source for industrial use after a radiation incident; Recuperacion de hojuelas de Iridio-192 provenientes de una fuente radiactivas de uso industrial despues de un incidente radiologico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cruz, W.H.; Zapata, L.A., E-mail: wcruz@ipen.gob.pe, E-mail: lzapata@ipen.gob.pe [Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear (GRRA/IPEN), Lima (Peru). Division de Gestion de Residuos Radiactivos

    2013-07-01

    The Iridium-192 ({sup 192}Ir) is the most used and ideal for industrial radiography applications, especially in petrochemical plants and pipelines and provides better contrast sensitivity for thick (25.4 mm). This source has constructive sealed double encapsulation, the internal capsule containing stainless steel to radioactive material in the form of flakes and welded with TIG process. The radiological incident happened at a gas station fuel sales in circumstances in which there was a homogeneity test welds a tank, the flakes or Ir-192 fell off his ponytail and left scattered over an area of 2 m{sup 2}, some fell flat areas and other land so collected in lead shielding and metal container and ground source. Full recovery of the leaflets was performed at the Division of radioactive waste management (GRRA) gaining a total of 22 flakes with no radiation risk to staff performance and installation and the conclusion was reached that the misapplicaion of TIG welding was the main cause the incident. (author)

  17. CATASTROPHE FRACTURE OF THIN-WALL PRESSURE TUBES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏德敏; 杨桂通

    2002-01-01

    Catastrophe theory was used to investigate the fracture behavior of thin-wall cylindrical tubes subjected to nternal explosive pressure. Based on the energy theory and catastrophe theory, a cusp catastrophe model for the fracture was established, and a critical condition associated with the model is given.

  18. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale f

  19. The CEOS Recovery Observatory Pilot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosford, S.; Proy, C.; Giros, A.; Eddy, A.; Petiteville, I.; Ishida, C.; Gaetani, F.; Frye, S.; Zoffoli, S.; Danzeglocke, J.

    2015-04-01

    Over the course of the last decade, large populations living in vulnerable areas have led to record damages and substantial loss of life in mega-disasters ranging from the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 and Haiti earthquake of 2010; the catastrophic flood damages of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Tohoku tsunami of 2011, and the astonishing extent of the environmental impact of the Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2009. These major catastrophes have widespread and long-lasting impacts with subsequent recovery and reconstruction costing billions of euros and lasting years. While satellite imagery is used on an ad hoc basis after many disasters to support damage assessment, there is currently no standard practice or system to coordinate acquisition of data and facilitate access for early recovery planning and recovery tracking and monitoring. CEOS led the creation of a Recovery Observatory Oversight Team, which brings together major recovery stakeholders such as the UNDP and the World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, value-adding providers and leading space agencies. The principal aims of the Observatory are to: 1. Demonstrate the utility of a wide range of earth observation data to facilitate the recovery and reconstruction phase following a major catastrophic event; 2. Provide a concrete case to focus efforts in identifying and resolving technical and organizational obstacles to facilitating the visibility and access to a relevant set of EO data; and 3. Develop dialogue and establish institutional relationships with the Recovery phase user community to best target data and information requirements; The paper presented here will describe the work conducted in preparing for the triggering of a Recovery Observatory including support to rapid assessments and Post Disaster Needs Assessments by the EO community.

  20. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    An effective theory is formulated for the dynamics of the guanosine triphosphate (GTP) cap believed to stabilize growing microtubules. The theory provides a ''coarse-grained'' description of the cap's dynamics. ''Microscopic'' details, such as the microtubule lattice structure and the fate of its...... data. A constant nonzero catastrophe rare, identical for both microtubule ends, is predicted at large growth rates. The delay time for dilution-induced catastrophes is stochastic with a simple distribution that fits the experimental one and, like the experimental one, does not depend on the rate of....... A recent experimental result for the size of the minimal cap that can stabilize a microtubule is shown to agree with the result predicted by the cap model, after its parameters have been extracted from previous experimental results. Thus the effective theory and cap model presented here provide a...

  1. On Catastrophe and Cavitation for Spherical Cavity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MingJIN; KefuHUANG; 等

    1999-01-01

    This work deals with catastrophe of a spherical cavity and cavitation of a spherical cavity for Hooke material with 1/2 Poisson's ratio.A nonlinear problem.which is the Cauchy traction problem,is solved analytically.The governing equations are written on the deformed region or on the present configuration.And the conditions are described on moving boundary.A closed form solution is found.Furthermore,a bifurcation solution in closed form is given from the trivial homogeneous solution of a solid sphere.The results indicate that there is a tangent bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a sphere with a cavity.On the tangent bifurcation point,the cavity grows up suddenly,which is a kind of catastrophe,And there is a pitchfork bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a solid sphere.On the pitchfork bifurcation point.there is a cavitation in the solid sphere.

  2. Recent catastrophic landslides and mitigation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper present...

  3. Valuing Catastrophic Losses for Perennial Agricultural Crops

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine 'just compensation' when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of estimating changes in producer welfare is the c...

  4. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    OpenAIRE

    Erickcek, Adrienne L.; Barnaby, Neil; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic cons...

  5. Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cavallo, Eduardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Noy, Ilan; Pantano, Juan

    2010-01-01

    We examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. We assess the counterfactual of the cases studied by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run. However, we also show that thi...

  6. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  7. Prediction of Catastrophes: an experimental model

    CERN Document Server

    Peters, Randall D; Pomeau, Yves

    2012-01-01

    Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time scales involved, an experimental approach is often difficult, not to say impossible, however desirable it could be. Described in this article is a "laboratory" setup that yields data of a type that is amenable to theoretical methods of prediction. Observations are made of a critical slowing down in the noisy signal of a solder wire creeping under constant stress. This effect is shown to be a fair signal of the forthcoming catastrophe in both of two dynamical models. The first is an "abstract" model in which a time dependent quantity drifts slowly but makes quick jumps from time to time. The second is a realistic physical model for the collective motion of dislocations (the Ananthakrishna set of equations for creep). Hope thus exists that similar changes in the response to ...

  8. Downward catastrophe of solar magnetic flux ropes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Quanhao; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5D time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free. The system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Secondly, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by a jump of a solution from the u...

  9. Catastrophic fragmentation of asteroids: Evidence from meteorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keil, K.; Haack, H.; Scott, E. R. D.

    1994-01-01

    Meteorites are impact-derived fragments from approximately 85 parent bodies. For seven of these bodies, the meteorites record evidence suggesting that they may have been catastrophically fragmented. We identify three types of catastrophic events: (1) impact and reassemble events greater than 4.4 Gy ago, involving molten or very hot parent bodies (greater than 1200 C); this affected the parent bodies of the ureilites, Shallowater, and the mesosiderites. In each case, the fragments cooled rapidly (approximately 1-1000 C/day) and then reassembled. (2) Later impacts involving cold bodies which, in some cases, reassembled; this occurred on the H and L ordinary chondrite parent bodies. The L parent body probably suffered another catastrophic event about 500 My ago. (3) Recent impacts of cold, multi-kilometer-sized bodies that generated meter-sized meteoroids; this occurred on the parent bodies of the IIIAB irons (650 My ago), the IVA irons (400 My ago), and the H ordinary chondrite (7 My ago).

  10. Factors that determine catastrophic expenditure for tuberculosis care: a patient survey in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chengchao Zhou; Qian Long; Jiaying Chen; Li Xiang; Qiang Li; Shenglan Tang; Fei Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background:Tuberculosis (TB) often causes catastrophic economic effects on both the individual suffering the disease and their households.A number of studies have analyzed patient and household expenditure on TB care,but there does not appear to be any that have assessed the incidence,intensity and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) relating to TB care in China.That will be the objective of this paper.Methods:The data used for this study were derived from the baseline survey of the China Government-Gates Foundation TB Phase Ⅱ program.Our analysis included 747 TB cases.Catastrophic health expenditure for TB care was estimated using two approaches,with households defined as experiencing CHE if their annual expenditure on TB care:(a) exceeded 10 % of total household income;and (b) exceeded 40 % of their non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).Chi-square tests were used to identify associated factors and logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of CHE.Results:The incidence of CHE was 66.8 % using the household income measure and 54.7 % using non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).An inverse association was observed between CHE rates and household income level.Significant determinants of CHE were:age,household size,employment status,health insurance status,patient income as a percentage of total household income,hospitalization and status as a minimum living security household.Factors including gender,marital status and type of TB case had no significant associations with CHE.Conclusions:Catastrophic health expenditure incidence from TB care is high in China.An integrated policy expanding the free treatment package and ensuring universal coverage,especially the height of UHC for TB patients,is needed.Financial and social protection interventions are essential for identified at-risk groups.

  11. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  12. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  13. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. PMID:26676354

  14. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  15. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  16. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  17. Catastrophic volcanic collapse: relation to hydrothermal processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, D L; Williams, S N

    1993-06-18

    Catastrophic volcanic collapse, without precursory magmatic activity, is characteristic of many volcanic disasters. The extent and locations of hydrothermal discharges at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia, suggest that at many volcanoes collapse may result from the interactions between hydrothermal fluids and the volcanic edifice. Rock dissolution and hydrothermal mineral alteration, combined with physical triggers such as earth-quakes, can produce volcanic collapse. Hot spring water compositions, residence times, and flow paths through faults were used to model potential collapse at Ruiz. Caldera dimensions, deposits, and alteration mineral volumes are consistent with parameters observed at other volcanoes.

  18. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that m

  19. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-01-01

    Background: There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. Method: This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. Results: 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. Conclusions: This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  20. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  1. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  2. Catastrophizing and Parental Response to Child Symptom Complaints

    OpenAIRE

    Langer, Shelby L.; Romano, Joan M.; Levy, Rona L; Walker, Lynn S.; Whitehead, William E.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated whether catastrophic thinking about pain by children with functional abdominal pain or by their parents is associated with health outcomes in the child. Subjects were 132 parent-child dyads. Child catastrophizing predicted child depression, anxiety and functional disability. Parents’ catastrophizing cognitions about their own pain predicted self-reported protective responses to their children’s abdominal pain (responding in ways that encourage illness behavior). Protec...

  3. Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Ian; Pindyck, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    How should we evaluate public policies or projects to avert, or reduce the likelihood of, a catastrophic event? Examples might include inspection and surveillance programs to avert nuclear terrorism, investments in vaccine technologies to help respond to a "mega-virus," or the construction of levees to avert major flooding. A policy to avert a particular catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in a cost-benefit framework. But because society faces multiple potential catastrophe...

  4. Mutation accumulation and the catastrophic senescence of Pacific salmon

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, T J P; Stauffer, D; Stauffer, Dietrich

    1995-01-01

    The bit-string model of biological aging is used to simulate the catastrophic senescence of Pacific Salmon. We have shown that reproduction occuring only once and at a fixed age is the only ingredient needed to explain the catastrophic senescence according the mutation accumulation theory. Several results are presented, some of them with up to 10^8 fishes, showing how the survival rates in catastrophic senescence are affected by changes in the parameters of the model.

  5. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  6. Super-catastrophic disruption of asteroids at small perihelion distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce; Bottke, William F; Beshore, Edward; Vokrouhlický, David; Delbò, Marco; Michel, Patrick

    2016-02-18

    Most near-Earth objects came from the asteroid belt and drifted via non-gravitational thermal forces into resonant escape routes that, in turn, pushed them onto planet-crossing orbits. Models predict that numerous asteroids should be found on orbits that closely approach the Sun, but few have been seen. In addition, even though the near-Earth-object population in general is an even mix of low-albedo (less than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) and high-albedo (more than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) asteroids, the characterized asteroids near the Sun typically have high albedos. Here we report a quantitative comparison of actual asteroid detections and a near-Earth-object model (which accounts for observational selection effects). We conclude that the deficit of low-albedo objects near the Sun arises from the super-catastrophic breakup (that is, almost complete disintegration) of a substantial fraction of asteroids when they achieve perihelion distances of a few tens of solar radii. The distance at which destruction occurs is greater for smaller asteroids, and their temperatures during perihelion passages are too low for evaporation to explain their disappearance. Although both bright and dark (high- and low-albedo) asteroids eventually break up, we find that low-albedo asteroids are more likely to be destroyed farther from the Sun, which explains the apparent excess of high-albedo near-Earth objects and suggests that low-albedo asteroids break up more easily as a result of thermal effects. PMID:26887492

  7. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  8. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the “real” world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be “tools” rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a “both–and” rather than an “either–or” approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may

  9. Experiments on Mixotrophic Protists and Catastrophic Darkness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harriet; Cockell, Charles S.; Goodson, Claire; Price, Nicola; Simpson, Annika; Thomas, Benjamin

    2009-08-01

    Catastrophically darkened photic zone conditions in water bodies are postulated to be induced by a diversity of mechanisms that are recorded in the geological record, including asteroid and comet impacts and large-scale volcanic eruptions. Giant wildfires, such as those that followed the great fires in Siberia in 1915, have been directly shown to cause large reductions in sunlight penetrating to the ground. Previous studies on the response of phototrophs to s udden prolonged darkness have focused on the survival of axenic strains. In this paper, we describe laboratory experiments to investigate the survival and growth of isolated and mixed cultures of freshwater and marine mixotrophs after 6 months of darkness and in the low light that would follow these events. Mixotrophs could survive 6 months of darkness. Some species used dissolved organic carbon, which can be released from dead biomass after loss of light and was shown to improve feeding rates. Mixotrophs also improved the survival and subsequent growth of obligate phototrophs at low light levels when grown in mixed cultures. The ability of mixotrophs to switch from photosynthesis to heterotrophy following sudden darkening would not only allow them to survive but to grow and contribute to active food chains. The experiments suggest that, following the return of light, resumption of photosynthesis can be rapid. These experiments improve our understanding of the collapse of photosynthesis following catastrophic darkening and emphasize the important role of mixotrophy in the resilience of the photosynthetic biosphere during such periods. We speculate on the implications for the Cretaceous-Tertiary impact event and periods of global freezing.

  10. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  11. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle ass

  12. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Diks; J. Wang

    2016-01-01

    Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing ma

  13. Psychological resilience predicts decreases in pain catastrophizing through positive emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Anthony D; Zautra, Alex J; Reid, M Carrington

    2010-09-01

    The study used a daily process design to examine the role of psychological resilience and positive emotions in the day-to-day experience of pain catastrophizing. A sample of 95 men and women with chronic pain completed initial assessments of neuroticism, psychological resilience, and demographic data, and then completed short diaries regarding pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and positive and negative emotions every day for 14 consecutive days. Multilevel modeling analyses indicated that independent of level of neuroticism, negative emotions, pain intensity, income, and age, high-resilient individuals reported greater positive emotions and exhibited lower day-to-day pain catastrophizing compared with low-resilient individuals. Mediation analyses revealed that psychologically resilient individuals rebound from daily pain catastrophizing through experiences of positive emotion. Implications for research on psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions are discussed.

  14. Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Qi-hua; CAO Jian-jun

    2007-01-01

    Based on the theory of grey system, established GM (1, 1) grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing (not the volume of water inflowing). After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in -400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis,it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

  15. Catastrophic Health Expenditures for Households with Disabled Members: Evidence from the Korean Health Panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong-Eun; Shin, Hyung-Ik; Do, Young Kyung; Yang, Eun Joo

    2016-03-01

    Persons with disabilities use more health care services due to ill health and face higher health care expenses and burden. This study explored the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures of households with persons with disabilities compared to that of those without such persons. We used the Korean Health Panel (KHP) dataset for the years 2010 and 2011. The final sample was 5,610 households; 800 (14.3%) of these were households with a person with a disability and 4,810 (85.7%) were households without such a person. Households with a person with a disability faced higher catastrophic health expenditures, spending about 1.2 to 1.4 times more of their annual living expenditures for out-of-pocket medical expenses, compared to households without persons with disabilities. Households having low economic status and members with chronic disease were more likely to face catastrophic health expenditures, while those receiving public assistance were less likely. Exemption or reduction of out-of-pocket payments in the National Health Insurance and additional financial support are needed so that the people with disabilities can use medical services without suffering financial crisis. PMID:26955233

  16. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  17. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  18. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  19. Catastrophic Cracking Courtesy of Quiescent Cavitation

    CERN Document Server

    Daily, D Jesse; Thomson, Scott L; Truscott, Tadd T

    2012-01-01

    A popular party trick is to fill a glass bottle with water and hit the top of the bottle with an open hand, causing the bottom of the bottle to break open. We investigate the source of the catastrophic cracking through the use of high-speed video and an accelerometer attached to the bottom of a glass bottle. Upon closer inspection, it is obvious that the acceleration caused by hitting the top of the bottle is followed by the formation of bubbles near the bottom. The nearly instantaneous acceleration creates an area of low pressure on the bottom of the bottle where cavitation bubbles form. Moments later, the cavitation bubbles collapse at roughly 10 times the speed of formation, causing the bottle to break. The accelerometer data shows that the bottle is broken after the bubbles collapse and that the magnitude of the bubble collapse is greater than the initial impact. The fluid dynamics video highlights that this trick will not work if the bottle is empty nor if it is filled with a carbonated fluid because the...

  20. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  1. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N;

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...

  2. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjøgx, Heidi; Zachariae, Robert; Pfeiffer-Jensen, Mogens; Kasch, Helge; Svensson, Peter; Jensen, Troels S.; Vase, Lene

    2014-01-01

    Background: Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress, and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method: A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Beck Depression Inventory, and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency. Results: In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed. Conclusions: This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations. PMID:25646089

  3. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi eKjøgx

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students and a clinical (223 pain patients sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed.Conclusions This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations.

  4. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  5. UKRAINIAN EVENTS AS HISTORICAL, INTERNATIONAL CATASTROPHE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Kasyanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scientific article fully examines current events in Ukraine in 2014-2015. The author believes that the causal and comparative historical analysis of the current Ukrainian crisis allows characterizing it as a major historical and ethnic catastrophe on a global scale after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Obvious microand macroeffects inevitably impact on the history of relations between Ukrainian and Russian brotherly nations, lead (and has led to freeze their contacts, projects and links. It causes a feeling of well-founded anxiety for the fate of not only bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia and the state of Post-Soviet space, but also for the development of all Slavic ethnic groups in the world. According to the author, it is necessary to review quickly realized Ukrainian direction of Russian state policy. It is necessary, as quickly as possible to get away from officiously promotional activities, technologies and techniques of information war and bring aid all the diversity of cultural cooperation. It is only a means of soft power, understood by us in the manner of the approach of its founder, American political scientist Joseph Nye, are able to restore the broken trust and interaction structures. Only the culture, and more specifically it such areas as language, traditions, generation feats, faith, can gradually normalize, and then to improve the bilateral relations, the each other perception, to restore a sense of respect, friendship and mutual assistance between Ukraine and Russia. It is obvious that bilateral cultural project able to change the existing negative situation.

  6. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    OpenAIRE

    Heidi eKjøgx; Robert eZachariae; Mogens ePfeiffer-Jensen; Helge eKasch; Peter eSvensson; Troels Staehelin Jensen; Lene eVase

    2014-01-01

    Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In...

  7. Psychological Resilience Predicts Decreases in Pain Catastrophizing Through Positive Emotions

    OpenAIRE

    Ong, Anthony D.; Zautra, Alex J.; Reid, M. Carrington

    2010-01-01

    The study used a daily process design to examine the role of psychological resilience and positive emotions in the day-to-day experience of pain catastrophizing. A sample of 95 men and women with chronic pain completed initial assessments of neuroticism, psychological resilience, and demographic data, and then completed short diaries regarding pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and positive and negative emotions every day for 14 consecutive days. Multilevel modeling analyses indicated that...

  8. Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events

    OpenAIRE

    Verdière, Nathalie; Lanza, Valentina; Charrier, Rodolphe; Provitolo, Damienne; Dubos-Paillard, Edwige; Bertelle, Cyrille; Aziz-Alaoui, Moulay

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the speci c scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account di erent concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Here, we focus more on the sequence of behaviors ...

  9. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  10. Some Aspects of the Economics of Catastrophe Risk Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2005-01-01

    The ability to share risk efficiently in the economy is essential to welfare and growth. However, the increased frequency of natural catastrophes over the last decade has raised once again questions associated to the limits of insurability in a free-market economy, and to the relevance of public interventions on risk-sharing markets. In this paper, we explore the potential reasons for the lack of insurance specifically associated to catastrophe environmental risks. Our final aim is to link ea...

  11. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaput, Geneviève; Lajoie, Susanne P; Naismith, Laura M; Lavigne, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1) and 8 weeks (Time 2) after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r = .31 to .44), number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r = .35 to .45), psychological distress (r = .57 to .67), and level of functionality (r = -.43 to -.29). Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2). Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms. PMID:27445604

  12. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  13. The race between cooperation and catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If a nuclear weapon were detonated in London, or in any of the world's major cities, it would change our world forever. Beyond the horror and the immediate death, and the lives that would be shortened by radioactive fallout, the casualties could also include civil liberties, privacy, world confidence and the global economy. With so much at stake, our citizens have every reason to ask: 'Are we doing all we can to prevent a nuclear attack?' My emphatic answer is 'No, we are not.' We have, however, taken some important steps, including: - The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction programme, working since 1991 to secure and destroy weapons and material in the former Soviet Union. This programme helped Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus get rid of all their nuclear weapons, a historic achievement. - The G8 commitment launched three years ago to create and fund the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. - The recently launched US-Russian Global Threat Reduction Initiative to remove and secure high enriched uranium from research facilities around the globe. - The IAEA Nuclear Security Fund, launched to help Member States strengthen the security of nuclear material worldwide. - The commitment by Libya to give up its nuclear weapons programme following skilful diplomacy led by the United Kingdom and the United States of America, with important oversight by the IAEA. - The recent Bush-Putin summit, in which the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the USA each made a personal commitment to enhance and accelerate efforts to secure nuclear weapons and nuclear material worldwide. These are all indispensable steps for global security, but we have miles to go before we sleep. We must remove roadblocks, we must provide more resources, we must convert pledges to programmes and words to deeds. We must develop a global partnership against catastrophic terrorism that is effective, focused and truly global. This includes

  14. Angular Momentum Transfer in Catastrophic Asteroid Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, S. G.; Ahrens, T. J.

    1996-09-01

    Incomplete knowledge of angular momentum transfer in asteroid impacts has hampered efforts to deduce asteroid collisional histories from their rotation rates. This problem traditionally has been investigated using impact experiments on cm-scale, strength-dominated targets. Recent evidence, however, indicates that impacts on asteroids of km size and larger may be controlled by gravity rather than strength, and that the analogy to laboratory impacts may not hold. Accordingly, we have modelled catastrophic impacts on gravitating asteroids to better understand angular momentum transfer in such events. We employ a 3--D, strengthless, gravitating SPH computer code. Target bodies are 10 to 1000 km in diameter and do not initially rotate. Impact speeds are 3--7 km/s; impact angles are 15--75(deg) . Each target is composed of 1791 mass elements: spatial resolution is coarse but acceptable for large scale energy transfer. We simulate the hydrodynamic phase of each impact, after which particle motions are ballistic and treated analytically. Escaping particles have kinetic energy greater than the gravitational energy binding them to the rest of the system; the others reaccrete to form a ``rubble pile'' which is assumed spherical. The rubble pile's size, mass, and angular momentum define its rotation rate. Spin rates for ejected fragments cannot be determined. The target's final spin period depends on the impact angle and the fraction of target mass ejected, but not on impact speed or target size in the ranges tested. The lack of size dependence cannot explain the observed excess of slowly rotating asteroids of ~ 100 km diameter. The fraction of projectile angular momentum retained by the target varies dramatically with impact speed and angle and with target size and fraction of mass removed, complicating its use in models where collision geometry varies. The final spin period of an asteroid losing 50% of its mass is 6--10 hours, comparable to the asteroidal mean of 8 hours

  15. Catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rocks slipping in faultage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hai-qing; WANG Xue-qing; YUAN Jing

    2008-01-01

    The model of catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rock slipping in fault zone based on catastrophic theory and the potential function of fault movement were presented. On the basis of the results above, through Taylor series expansion of the equation of equilibrium surface, its standard form was obtained. Analysis show that catastrophic destabilization of tunnel will occur only when stiffness ratio between elastic sector and strain weakening sector of soft rocks was larger than or equal to 1. On the other hand,sliding behavior and evolution path of fault were directly affected by exogenous process,and it was a major extraneous factor which leads to catastrophic destabilization of tunnel.In the condition of system catastrophe could be generated, if external forces vary from smaller to larger, firstly, fault sticks or creeps, and secondly, when external force equal to or larger than critical value, fault turns to slip suddenly. Inverse, if external forces vary from larger to smaller, fault smoothly slips firstly, when external force equal to or smaller than critical value, and fault turns to stick or creep suddenly.

  16. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Ischemic Pancreatitis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Vyas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Context Antiphospholipid syndrome is often associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. Both syndromes have different clinical manifestations based on organ involvement. Antiphospholipid syndrome commonly causes spontaneous abortions, cerebral vascular occlusion, and deep venous thrombosis. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thromboses in less than a week. Case report We report a unique case of a young woman with a history of systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome who presented with recurrent ischemic pancreatitis. Pancreatitis was refractory to anticoagulation and low dose steroids. Secondary to recurrence of pancreatitis and other organ involvement, she was treated as a presumed case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Aggressive treatment with plasmapheresis, corticosteroids, cyclophosphamide, and anticoagulation eventually led to her recovery. Conclusion Awareness of this rare, rapidly fatal medical condition prompts vital, early intervention to improve patients’ survival. This case report aims to add to the limited therapeutic data available as well as suggest a possible approach to treating this rare syndrome with very high morbidity and mortality.

  17. Chromosome catastrophes involve replication mechanisms generating complex genomic rearrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pengfei; Erez, Ayelet; Nagamani, Sandesh C Sreenath; Dhar, Shweta U; Kołodziejska, Katarzyna E; Dharmadhikari, Avinash V; Cooper, M Lance; Wiszniewska, Joanna; Zhang, Feng; Withers, Marjorie A; Bacino, Carlos A; Campos-Acevedo, Luis Daniel; Delgado, Mauricio R; Freedenberg, Debra; Garnica, Adolfo; Grebe, Theresa A; Hernández-Almaguer, Dolores; Immken, LaDonna; Lalani, Seema R; McLean, Scott D; Northrup, Hope; Scaglia, Fernando; Strathearn, Lane; Trapane, Pamela; Kang, Sung-Hae L; Patel, Ankita; Cheung, Sau Wai; Hastings, P J; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Lupski, James R; Bi, Weimin

    2011-09-16

    Complex genomic rearrangements (CGRs) consisting of two or more breakpoint junctions have been observed in genomic disorders. Recently, a chromosome catastrophe phenomenon termed chromothripsis, in which numerous genomic rearrangements are apparently acquired in one single catastrophic event, was described in multiple cancers. Here, we show that constitutionally acquired CGRs share similarities with cancer chromothripsis. In the 17 CGR cases investigated, we observed localization and multiple copy number changes including deletions, duplications, and/or triplications, as well as extensive translocations and inversions. Genomic rearrangements involved varied in size and complexities; in one case, array comparative genomic hybridization revealed 18 copy number changes. Breakpoint sequencing identified characteristic features, including small templated insertions at breakpoints and microhomology at breakpoint junctions, which have been attributed to replicative processes. The resemblance between CGR and chromothripsis suggests similar mechanistic underpinnings. Such chromosome catastrophic events appear to reflect basic DNA metabolism operative throughout an organism's life cycle.

  18. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Roda, Manuel; Zegers, Tanja E; Oosthoek, Jelmer H P

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with ...

  19. Gravothermal Catastrophe: the dynamical stability of a fluid model

    CERN Document Server

    Sormani, M C

    2013-01-01

    A re-investigation of the gravothermal catastrophe is presented. By means of a linear perturbation analysis, we study the dynamical stability of a spherical self-gravitating isothermal fluid of finite volume and find that the conditions for the onset of the gravothermal catastrophe, under different external conditions, coincide with those obtained from thermodynamical arguments. This suggests that the gravothermal catastrophe may reduce to Jeans instability, rediscovered in an inhomogeneous framework. We find normal modes and frequencies for the fluid system and show that instability develops on the dynamical time scale. We then discuss several related issues. In particular: (1) For perturbations at constant total energy and constant volume, we introduce a simple heuristic term in the energy budget to mimic the role of binaries. (2) We outline the analysis of the two-component case and show how linear perturbation analysis can be carried out also in this more complex context in a relatively straightforward wa...

  20. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  1. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  2. A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Adrian

    2004-02-01

    Recent articles by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely solely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. Nonetheless, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expectation value-a good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, p(catastrophe) future generations, a catastrophe risk no higher than approximately 10(-15) per year would be required for consistency with established policy for radiation hazard risk minimization. Allowing for risk aversion and for future lives, a respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. In summary, the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated by BJSW (initially), by DDH, and by other commentators. Future policy on catastrophe risks would be more rational, and more deserving of public trust, if acceptable risk bounds were generally agreed upon ahead of time and if serious research on whether those bounds could indeed be guaranteed was carried out well in advance of any hypothetically risky experiment, with the relevant debates involving experts with no stake in the experiments under consideration.

  3. Application of Catastrophe Theory in 3D Seismic Data Interpretation of Coal Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Mu-hua; YANG Wen-qiang; CUI Hui-xia

    2005-01-01

    In order to detect fault exactly and quickly, cusp catastrophe theory is used to interpret 3D coal seismic data in this paper. By establishing a cusp model, seismic signal is transformed into standard form of cusp catastrophe and catastrophe parameters, including time-domain catastrophe potential, time-domain catastrophe time, frequency-domain catastrophe potential and frequency- domain degree, are calculated. Catastrophe theory is used in 3D seismic structural interpretation in coal mine. The results show that the position of abnormality of the catastrophe parameter profile or curve is related to the location of fault, and the cusp catastrophe theory is effective to automatically pick up geology information and improve the interpretation precision in 3D seismic data.

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma I Al-Beladi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS. We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS, which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  5. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    OpenAIRE

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani; Saber Azami-Aghdash; Abdolhassan Kazemi; Behrad Ziapour

    2015-01-01

    Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis...

  6. Web 2.0 for Disaster Response and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gregory

    2010-01-01

    Successful disaster response is an exercise in managing human resources under very difficult conditions. Catastrophic disasters can disrupt both the physical communication networks and the social networks critical to efficient response and recovery. While a well-designed disaster plan serves as a framework, it often requires communication and…

  7. Implementation of the National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) in the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center(FRMAC) - Emergency Phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive HSPD-5 requires all federal departments and agencies to adopt a National Incident Management System (NIMS)/Incident Command System (ICS) and use it in their individual domestic incident management and emergency prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation programs and activities, as well as in support of those actions taken to assist state and local entities. This system provides a consistent nationwide template to enable federal, state, local, and tribal governments, private-sector, and nongovernmental organizations to work together effectively and efficiently to prepare for, prevent, respond to, and recover from domestic incidents, regardless of cause, size, or complexity, including acts of catastrophic terrorism. This document identifies the operational concepts of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center's (FRMAC) implementation of the NIMS/ICS response structure under the National Response Plan (NRP). The construct identified here defines the basic response template to be tailored to the incident-specific response requirements. FRMAC's mission to facilitate interagency environmental data management, monitoring, sampling, analysis, and assessment and link this information to the planning and decision staff clearly places the FRMAC in the Planning Section. FRMAC is not a mitigating resource for radiological contamination but is present to conduct radiological impact assessment for public dose avoidance. Field monitoring is a fact-finding mission to support this effort directly. Decisions based on the assessed data will drive public protection and operational requirements. This organizational structure under NIMS is focused by the mission responsibilities and interface requirements following the premise to provide emergency responders with a flexible yet standardized structure for incident response activities. The coordination responsibilities outlined in the NRP are based on the NIMS

  8. Quality incidents in projects

    OpenAIRE

    Eren, Serkan

    2010-01-01

    A quality incident is an occurrence that has a negative consequence on time, cost and quality.These incidents are important for quality management in the projects. Similar to Health,Safety and Environment Incidents (HSE incidents) which are widely used in organizations allaround the world and in their projects, quality incidents should also be reported. For thepurpose of this, quality incident reporting systems can be used.The main purpose of this project is to define and explain the current ...

  9. How effective incident management retains market share.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enright, Courtenay

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the need for business continuity practitioners to make incident management a focal element of their programme. Particularly during the first few minutes and hours of a business disruption, an established incident management methodology is not only key to achieving a successful, coordinated recovery, but it can play an even more important role in maintaining customer confidence following a disruption or crisis. PMID:22948102

  10. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  11. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, Max; Dekker, Stefan C.; Ruiter, Peter C. de; Koppel, Johan van de

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  12. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; de Ruiter, P.C.; Van de Koppel, J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  13. Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kefi, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Nes, E.H. van; Rietkerk, M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to external changes can surprise us by their abruptness and irreversibility. Models have helped identifying indicators of impending catastrophic shifts, referred to as ‘generic early warning signals’. These indicators are linked to a phenomenon known as ‘critical slowing down’ wh

  14. Catastrophe in diffusion-controlled annihilation dynamics: general scaling properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipilevsky, Boris M.

    2015-11-01

    We present a systematic analytical and numerical study of the annihilation catastrophe phenomenon which develops in an open system, where species A and B diffuse from the bulk of restricted medium and die on its surface (desorb) by the reaction A + B → 0. This phenomenon arises in the diffusion-controlled limit as a result of self-organizing explosive growth (drop) of the surface concentrations of, respectively, slow and fast particles (concentration explosion) and manifests itself in the form of an abrupt singular jump of the desorption flux relaxation rate. In the recent work [B.M. Shipilevsky, Phys. Rev. E 76, 031126 (2007)] a closed scaling theory of catastrophe development has been given for the asymptotic limit when the characteristic time scale of explosion becomes much less than the characteristic time scales of diffusion of slow and fast particles at an arbitrary ratio of their diffusivities 0 < p < 1. In this paper we consider the behavior of the system at strong difference of species diffusivities p ≪ 1 and reveal a rich general pattern of catastrophe development for an arbitrary ratio of the characteristic time scales of explosion and fast particle diffusion. As striking results we find remarkable scaling properties of catastrophe evolution at the crossover between two limiting regimes with radically different dynamics.

  15. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2002-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and c

  16. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2002-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the in flence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and t

  17. A catastrophe theory model of the conflict helix, with tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, R J

    1987-10-01

    Macro social field theory has undergone extensive development and testing since the 1960s. One of these has been the articulation of an appropriate conceptual micro model--called the conflict helix--for understanding the process from conflict to cooperation and vice versa. Conflict and cooperation are viewed as distinct equilibria of forces in a social field; the movement between these equilibria is a jump, energized by a gap between social expectations and power, and triggered by some minor event. Quite independently, there also has been much recent application of catastrophe theory to social behavior, but usually without a clear substantive theory and lacking empirical testing. This paper uses catastrophe theory--namely, the butterfly model--mathematically to structure the conflict helix. The social field framework and helix provide the substantive interpretation for the catastrophe theory; and catastrophe theory provides a suitable mathematical model for the conflict helix. The model is tested on the annual conflict and cooperation between India and Pakistan, 1948 to 1973. The results are generally positive and encouraging.

  18. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. PMID:22967051

  19. Catastrophic behavior of aphid population dynamics: An analysis of swallowtail model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkdk Piyaratne

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe phenomena are frequent in insect ecology, especially in aphid populations. Complexity of this phenomenon urges different modeling frameworks other than traditional methodologies to understand the trajectories of their behavior. Situations like this can be best handled using catastrophe theory. A few numbers of experiments have been conducted to develop catastrophe models in insect ecology, especially for aphids, and most of them are based on cusp catastrophe theory which is a lower dimensional model. However few attempts using higher dimensional models such as swallowtail or butterfly theory to analyze aphid population dynamics are also exist. In this paper we tried to analyze a recently developed higher dimensional catastrophe theory model (APHIDSim in order to identify catastrophe regions, and used independent data to identify if catastrophic behavior is observed in the data and consequently to further verify the model. Here we found that identifying catastrophe regions is possible using catastrophe theory model, and it can be used to analyze catastrophes in insect ecology by graphically interpreting the simulated results. Increasing of insect population is intrinsically catastrophic and catastrophes (jumps occur between states even if the driving variables still change smoothly. The results further verified the previously developed model, and we suggest that insect management program developers should consider this phenomenon when they design the management strategies for insect controlling.

  20. 15 CFR 2301.10 - Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... catastrophic damage or emergency situations. 2301.10 Section 2301.10 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations... Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations. (a) An application may be filed with a... suffers catastrophic damage to the basic equipment essential to its continued operation as a result of...

  1. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.)

  2. Catastrophic failure of ceramic-polyethylene bearing total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needham, Justin; Burns, Travis; Gerlinger, Tad

    2008-06-01

    Complications of ceramic-polyethylene bearing total hip arthroplasty (THA) include osteolysis, loosening, dislocation, and component failure. Catastrophic acetabular component failure involves severe damage to both the polyethylene liner and metal shell. This case study presents the first reported complete wear-through of the acetabular portion of a ceramic-polyethylene arthroplasty presenting as a dislocation and a review of the literature. In this study, a patient's alumina ceramic femoral head penetrated the polyethylene liner and titanium shell and presented as a dislocated THA. The contributing factors for this catastrophic failure include young patient age, high activity level, thin polyethylene liner, backside wear, component positioning, polyethylene sterilization with gamma irradiation in air, and lack of appropriate follow-up. Revision THA was performed without complications. PMID:18514888

  3. The Kychtym accident or the story of a secret catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the causes, the circumstances and the environmental consequences of the Kychtym catastrophe (Ural, USSR) that occurred in September 29, 1957 in the fuel recycle plant of the Tcheliabinsk military-industrial complex. A brief description of the separation process and of the installations used is given to understand the conclusions of the inquiry carried out by Russian and foreign experts. The violent redox reaction between nitrates and acetates that occurred, was due to a lack of cooling in the fission products storage ponds. The catastrophe produced a huge strontium 90-rich radioactive cloud which led to a 9000 to 15000 km2 surface contamination. A comparison with the PUREX separation process used in France is given to evaluate the risk of such industrial accidents in French fuel recycle centers. (J.S.). 1 fig., 2 photos

  4. Catastrophic senescence and semelparity in the Penna aging model

    CERN Document Server

    Pinol, C M N

    2010-01-01

    The catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon is among the initial tests used to validate the Penna aging model. Based on the mutation accumulation theory, the sudden decrease in fitness following reproduction may be solely attributed to the semelparity of the species. In this work, we report other consequences of mutation accumulation. Contrary to earlier findings, such dramatic manifestation of aging depends not only on the choice of breeding strategy but also on the value of the reproduction age, R, and the mutation threshold, T. Senescence is catastrophic when T\\leq R. As the organism's tolerance for harmful genetic mutations increases, the aging process becomes more gradual. We observe senescence that is threshold dependent whenever T>R. That is, the sudden drop in survival rate occurs at age equal to the mutation threshold value.

  5. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  6. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  7. Rotation-dependent catastrophic disruption of gravitational aggregates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Richardson, Derek C.; Schwartz, Stephen R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States); Michel, Patrick, E-mail: rballouz@astro.umd.edu [Lagrange Laboratory, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d' Azur, C.S. 34229, F-06304 Nice Cedex 4 (France)

    2014-07-10

    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotation lowers the threshold energy for catastrophic dispersal. For head-on collisions, we develop a semi-analytic description of the change in the threshold description as a function of the target's pre-impact rotation rate, and find that these results are consistent with the 'universal law' of catastrophic disruption developed by Leinhardt and Stewart. Using this approach, we introduce re-scaled catastrophic disruption variables that take into account the interacting mass fraction of the target and the projectile in order to translate oblique impacts into equivalent head-on collisions.

  8. Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss

    OpenAIRE

    J. David Cummins; Lewis, Christopher M.; Phillips, Richard D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a pricing methodology and pricing estimates for the proposed Federal excess-of- loss (XOL) catastrophe reinsurance contracts. The contracts, proposed by the Clinton Administration, would provide per-occurrence excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage to private insurers and reinsurers, where both the coverage layer and the fixed payout of the contract are based on insurance industry losses, not company losses. In financial terms, the Federal government would be selling earthqua...

  9. slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.

    2007-01-01

    The size of the basin of attraction in ecosystems with alternative stable states is often referred to as "ecological resilience." Ecosystems with a low ecological resilience may easily be tipped into an alternative basin of attraction by a stochastic event. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to mea

  10. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  11. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  12. Catastrophic rupture of lunar rocks - A Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerz, F.; Schneider, E.; Gault, D. E.; Hartung, J. B.; Brownlee, D. E.

    1975-01-01

    A computer model based on Monte Carlo techniques was developed to simulate the destruction of lunar rocks by 'catastrophic rupture' due to meteoroid impact. Energies necessary to accomplish catastrophic rupture were derived from laboratory experiments. A crater-production rate derived from lunar rocks was utilized to calculate absolute time scales. Calculated median survival times for crystalline lunar rocks are 1.9, 4.6, 10.3, and 22 m.y. for rock masses of 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 g, respectively. Corresponding times of 6, 14.5, 32, and 68 million years are required before the probability of destruction reaches 0.99. These results are consistent with absolute exposure ages measured on returned rocks. Some results also substantiate previous conclusions that the catastrophic-rupture process is significantly more effective in obliterating lunar rocks than mass wasting by single-particle abrasion. The view is also corroborated that most rocks presently on the lunar surface either are exhumed from the regolith or are fragments of much larger boulders rather than primary ejecta excavated from pristine bedrock.

  13. Molecular and Mechanical Causes of Microtubule Catastrophe and Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, Pavel; Gudimchuk, Nikita; Voevodin, Vladimir; Tikhonravov, Alexander; Ataullakhanov, Fazoil I; Grishchuk, Ekaterina L

    2015-12-15

    Tubulin polymers, microtubules, can switch abruptly from the assembly to shortening. These infrequent transitions, termed "catastrophes", affect numerous cellular processes but the underlying mechanisms are elusive. We approached this complex stochastic system using advanced coarse-grained molecular dynamics modeling of tubulin-tubulin interactions. Unlike in previous simplified models of dynamic microtubules, the catastrophes in this model arise owing to fluctuations in the composition and conformation of a growing microtubule tip, most notably in the number of protofilament curls. In our model, dynamic evolution of the stochastic microtubule tip configurations over a long timescale, known as the system's "aging", gives rise to the nonexponential distribution of microtubule lifetimes, consistent with experiment. We show that aging takes place in the absence of visible changes in the microtubule wall or tip, as this complex molecular-mechanical system evolves slowly and asymptotically toward the steady-state level of the catastrophe-promoting configurations. This new, to our knowledge, theoretical basis will assist detailed mechanistic investigations of the mechanisms of action of different microtubule-binding proteins and drugs, thereby enabling accurate control over the microtubule dynamics to treat various pathologies. PMID:26682815

  14. Does landscape diversity reduce the risk of catastrophic tipping points?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temme, Arnaud; Baartman, Jantiene; Saco, Patricia; Nijp, Jelmer; Langston, Abigail

    2016-04-01

    Most studies about tipping points are based on computer simulations. These simulations, based on first principles of vegetation growth and competition, are not only able to explain a surprising number of vegetation patterns occurring in natural ecosystems, but they also predict shifts between multiple stable states that may be catastrophic. Initially, such studies were performed on simplistic 'non-landscapes' - flats or straight slopes. Recently, we have been able to resolve geomorphic redistribution processes more accurately, so that vegetation patterning can be simulated in more complex landscapes. Here, we present a first look into how such 'real landscapes' affect the risk of catastrophic shifts. We test the hypothesis that increasing complexity and organisation in a landscape reduce the risk of catastrophic shifts by effectively creating mini-refugia where vegetation persists over a wider range of boundary conditions such as precipitation. Depending on the extent of a study area, large complexity could even change the system from one with multiple stable states into one with only one stable state.

  15. Bifurcation and catastrophe of seepage flow system in broken rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO Xie-xing; LI Shun-cai; CHEN Zhan-qing

    2009-01-01

    The study of dynamical behavior of water or gas flows in broken rock is a basic research topic among a series of key projects about stability control of the surrounding rocks in mines and the prevention of some disasters such as water inrush or gas outburst and the protection of the groundwater resource. It is of great theoretical and engineering importance in respect of promo-tion of security in mine production and sustainable development of the coal industry. According to the non-Darcy property of seepage flow in broken rock dynamic equations of non-Darcy and non-steady flows in broken rock are established. By dimensionless transformation, the solution diagram of steady-states satisfying the given boundary conditions is obtained. By numerical analysis of low relaxation iteration, the dynamic responses corresponding to the different flow parameters have been obtained. The stability analysis of the steady-states indicate that a saddle-node bifurcaton exists in the seepage flow system of broken rock. Consequently, using catastrophe theory, the fold catastrophe model of seepage flow instability has been obtained. As a result, the bifurcation curves of the seepage flow systems with different control parameters are presented and the standard potential function is also given with respect to the generalized state variable for the fold catastrophe of a dynamic system of seepage flow in broken rock.

  16. Backup & Recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Preston, W

    2009-01-01

    Packed with practical, freely available backup and recovery solutions for Unix, Linux, Windows, and Mac OS X systems -- as well as various databases -- this new guide is a complete overhaul of Unix Backup & Recovery by the same author, now revised and expanded with over 75% new material.

  17. Recovery Online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, John R.

    2007-01-01

    Since the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) in 1935, programs offering opportunity for recovery from alcoholism and other addictions have undergone vast changes. The Internet has created nearly limitless opportunities for recovering people and those seeking recovery to find both meetings and places where they can gather virtually and discuss…

  18. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  19. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GS DeFraia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions.Objective: To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents.Methods: Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events.Results: Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident.Conclusion: Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  20. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  1. Recovery post ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Christina

    2014-10-01

    Many ICU patients struggle to recovery following critical illness and may be left with physical, cognitive and psychological problems, which have a negative impact on their quality of life. Gross muscle mass loss and weakness can take some months to recover after the patients' Intensive Care Unit (ICU) discharge, in addition critical illness polyneuropathies can further complicate physical recovery. Psychological problems such as anxiety, depression and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are common and have an negative impact on the patients' ability to engage in rehabilitation after ICU discharge. Finally cognitive deficit affecting memory can be a significant problem. The first step in helping patients to recover from such a devastating illness is to recognise those who have the greatest need and target interventions. Research now suggests that there are interventions that can accelerate physical recovery and reduce the incidence of psychological problems such as anxiety, depression and PTSD. Cognitive rehabilitation, however, is still in its infancy. This review will look at the research into patients' recovery and what can be done to improve this where needed.

  2. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  3. Depolymerizing kinesins Kip3 and MCAK shape cellular microtubule architecture by differential control of catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Gell, Christopher; Bormuth, Volker; Howard, Jonathon

    2011-11-23

    Microtubules are dynamic filaments whose ends alternate between periods of slow growth and rapid shortening as they explore intracellular space and move organelles. A key question is how regulatory proteins modulate catastrophe, the conversion from growth to shortening. To study this process, we reconstituted microtubule dynamics in the absence and presence of the kinesin-8 Kip3 and the kinesin-13 MCAK. Surprisingly, we found that, even in the absence of the kinesins, the microtubule catastrophe frequency depends on the age of the microtubule, indicating that catastrophe is a multistep process. Kip3 slowed microtubule growth in a length-dependent manner and increased the rate of aging. In contrast, MCAK eliminated the aging process. Thus, both kinesins are catastrophe factors; Kip3 mediates fine control of microtubule length by narrowing the distribution of maximum lengths prior to catastrophe, whereas MCAK promotes rapid restructuring of the microtubule cytoskeleton by making catastrophe a first-order random process.

  4. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-03-06

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  5. Incidência e profilaxia de náuseas e vômitos na recuperação pós-anestésica de um hospital-escola terciário Incidencia y profilaxis de náuseas y vómitos en la recuperación postanestésica de un hospital -escuela terciario Incidence and prophylaxis of nausea and vomiting in post-anesthetic recovery in a tertiary teaching hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Augusto Martins Patti

    2008-10-01

    that increases the length of anesthetic recovery and causes patient dissatisfaction. The evaluation of the risk of PONV and institution of prophylactic measures aiming the well-being of patients and cost reduction are frequent in the medical literature. This observational study evaluated the incidence, risk factors, and adjustment and effectivity of the prophylaxis of PONV in the recovery room of a tertiary teaching school. METHODS: Information obtained from patients' records and questionnaires answered by patients included age, major predictive factors for PONV (female gender, history, absence of smoking, and postoperative use of opioids, prophylactic drugs administered, development of PONV, type of surgery and anesthesia, use of nitrous oxide, clinical status, and length of stay in the recovery room. RESULTS: An incidence of 18.5% of nausea and 8.5% of vomiting in the immediate postoperative period was observed. A correlation between major risk factors and the development of PONV was also observed. A correlation between those factors and prophylactic anti-emetic drugs, as well as between their use and the development of PONV, was not observed. However, a tendency to administer prophylactic medication to young female patients was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The concerns of the anesthesiologists of the institution with PONV were evident. However, the absence of correlation between risk and prophylaxis suggests an empirical and ineffective procedure. Factors that were not evaluated were suggested by the absence between PONV and the use of anti-emetic drugs. The orientation for anesthesiologists regarding more effective prophylactic measures can improve care of the population assisted.

  6. Catastrophe model of the accident process, safety climate, and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guastello, Stephen J; Lynn, Mark

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed (a) to address the evidence for situational specificity in the connection between safety climate to occupational accidents, (b) to resolve similar issues between anxiety and accidents, (c) to expand and develop the concept of safety climate to include a wider range of organizational constructs, (d) to assess a cusp catastrophe model for occupational accidents where safety climate and anxiety are treated as bifurcation variables, and environ-mental hazards are asymmetry variables. Bifurcation, or trigger variables can have a positive or negative effect on outcomes, depending on the levels of asymmetry, or background variables. The participants were 1262 production employees of two steel manufacturing facilities who completed a survey that measured safety management, anxiety, subjective danger, dysregulation, stressors and hazards. Nonlinear regression analyses showed, for this industry, that the accident process was explained by a cusp catastrophe model in which safety management and anxiety were bifurcation variables, and hazards, age and experience were asymmetry variables. The accuracy of the cusp model (R2 = .72) exceeded that of the next best log-linear model (R2 = .08) composed from the same survey variables. The results are thought to generalize to any industry where serious injuries could occur, although situationally specific effects should be anticipated as well.

  7. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  8. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  9. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis.Results: Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Manage­ment aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information manage­ment. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. Conclusion: The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  10. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  11. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  12. "Till destruction sicken": the catastrophe of mind in Macbeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarantelli, Carole Beebe

    2010-12-01

    The author examines the tragedy of Macbeth from the vertex of its portrait of the effects of the hero's abandonment to the "blindest fury of destructiveness" (Freud, 1930, p. 121), using aspects of psychoanalytic thought to illuminate the theme. She affirms that Macbeth's immediate transformation in phantasy from loyal subject to future assassin threatens to flood his psyche with the uncontainable energy of destruction and thus to produce a psychic catastrophe. The remainder of the play is then examined as a representation of Macbeth's attempts to defend himself from that catastrophe: the only objects whose existence he can tolerate are those that cannot challenge his possession of the crown, which leads him to attempt to destroy all opposition. Since this is impossible, his alternative is to denude his mind of its perception of the reality in which the actions of others will inevitably produce future transformations which he is unable to control. The play's last soliloquy anticipates the final state, the repose of emptiness; it portrays a mind, emptied of emotion, looking at a world which it has denuded of meaning.

  13. A gradient catastrophe mechanism in contexts of the phase change condition

    OpenAIRE

    Durmagambetov, A. A.

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the mechanism of occurrence of a gradient catastrophe when changing phase. Materials shows that classical methods of estimation theory of functions do not fit the problem of studying the gradient catastrophe. We present material showing that the embedding theorem can not give an opportunity to study the process of a gradient catastrophe. In fact, work justifies pessimism Terence Tao in the insolvency of modern mathematics to solve the problem of the Navier-Stokes equations...

  14. Agricultural Mechanism of Spreading Catastrophe Risk in China and Legislation Conception

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces agricultural catastrophe and its characteristics,and conducts comparative analysis on existing mechanism of spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,indicating that the mechanism of administrative remedy has the greatest efficiency and highest cost;the mechanism of social assistance has the lowest cost,but its efficiency is lowest and there are unstable factors;market mechanism,namely the insurance of agricultural catastrophe,is the rational choice of agricultural department in mechanism of risk spreading.This paper analyzes the status quo of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe,indicating that the main body of management in China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is missing.In addition,the market demand is critically scanty,and insurance of agricultural catastrophe lacks external development environment.The gap of China’s insurance law of agricultural catastrophe has become the greatest obstacle to the development of insurance of agricultural catastrophe.From legislative purpose,basic principle,nature,main body of legal relations,management range,policy support,supervision and management and so on,the legislation conception of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is put forward.

  15. Recovery Spirituality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kurtz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A. and other secular, spiritual, and religious frameworks of long-term addiction recovery. The present paper explores the varieties of spiritual experience within A.A., with particular reference to the growth of a wing of recovery spirituality promoted within A.A. It is suggested that the essence of secular spirituality is reflected in the experience of beyond (horizontal and vertical transcendence and between (connection and mutuality and in six facets of spirituality (Release, Gratitude, Humility, Tolerance, Forgiveness, and a Sense of Being-at-home shared across religious, spiritual, and secular pathways of addiction recovery. The growing varieties of A.A. spirituality (spanning the “Christianizers” and “Seculizers” reflect A.A.’s adaptation to the larger diversification of religious experience and the growing secularization of spirituality across the cultural contexts within which A.A. is nested.

  16. The effectiveness of the nationwide BokSmart rugby injury prevention program on catastrophic injury rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J C; Verhagen, E; Knol, D; Van Mechelen, W; Lambert, M I

    2016-02-01

    Rugby Union ("rugby") participants have a higher than average risk of injury compared with participants of other popular team sports. BokSmart, a nationwide injury prevention program was launched in South Africa in mid-2009, with the goal of reducing catastrophic head/neck (serious) injuries in players. The program provides injury prevention information to coaches and referees. This study investigated if BokSmart has been associated with a reduction in these injuries. The BokSmart program collected data on all South African rugby-related serious injuries since 2008. Using a Poisson regression, injury numbers were compared pre-BokSmart (2008-2009) to the years post-implementation (2010-2013). Player numbers were assumed to be constant throughout this evaluation: junior = 529,483; senior = 121,663. In junior players, the "post-BokSmart" period had 2.5 less annual serious injuries than "pre-BokSmart" (incidence rate ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.5-0.7, P < 0.000). In contrast, there was no significant difference in these periods in seniors. The absence of effect in seniors may be a result of fewer players or of differences in effectiveness of BokSmart in this group--future studies should investigate these questions.

  17. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  18. The Remote Detection of Incipient Catastrophic Failure in Large Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petley, D.; Bulmer, M. H.; Murphy, W.; Mantovani, F.

    2001-12-01

    Landslide movement is commonly associated with brittle failure and ductile deformation. Kilburn and Petley (2001) proposed that cracking in landslides occurs due to downslope stress acting on the deforming horizon. If the assumption that a given crack event breaks a fixed distance of unbroken rock or soil the rate of cracking becomes equivalent to the number of crack events per unit time. Where crack growth (not nucleation) is occurring, the inverse rate of displacement changes linearly with time. Failure can be assumed to be the time at which displacement rates become infinitely large. Thus, for a slope heading towards catastrophic failure due to the development of a failure plane, this relationship would be linear, with the point at which failure will occur being the time when the line intercepts the x-axis. Increasing rates of deformation associated with ductile processes of crack nucleation would yield a curve with a negative gradient asymptopic to the x-axis. This hypothesis is being examined. In the 1960 movement of the Vaiont slide, Italy, although the rate of movement was accelerating, the plot of 1/deformation against time shows that it was increasing towards a steady state deformation. This movement has been associated with a low accumulated strain ductile phase of movement. In the 1963 movement event, the trend is linear. This was associated with a brittle phase of movement. A plot of 1/deformation against time for movement of the debris flow portion of the Tessina landslide (1998) shows a curve with a negative gradient asymptopic to the x-axis. This indicates that the debris flow moved as a result of ductile deformation processes. Plots of movement data for the Black Ven landslide over 1999 and 2001 also show curves that correlate with known deformation and catastrophic phases. The model results suggest there is a definable deformation pattern that is diagnostic of landslides approaching catastrophic failure. This pattern can be differentiated from

  19. Spontaneous Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rescorla, Robert A.

    2004-01-01

    Spontaneous recovery from extinction is one of the most basic phenomena of Pavlovian conditioning. Although it can be studied by using a variety of designs, some procedures are better than others for identifying the involvement of underlying learning processes. A wide range of different learning mechanisms has been suggested as being engaged by…

  20. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  1. Rural mass casualty preparedness and response: the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Kristin P; Bass, Robert; Wijetunge, Gamunu; Altevogt, Bruce M

    2012-10-01

    The Institute of Medicine's Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events hosted a workshop at the request of the Federal Interagency Committee on Emergency Medical Services (FICEMS) that brought together a range of stakeholders to broadly identify and confront gaps in rural infrastructure that challenge mass casualty incident (MCI) response and potential mechanisms to fill them. This report summarizes the presentations and discussions around 6 major issues specific to rural MCI preparedness and response: (1) improving rural response to MCI through improving daily capacity and capability, (2) leveraging current and emerging technology to overcome infrastructure deficits, (3) sustaining and strengthening relationships, (4) developing and sharing best practices across jurisdictions and sectors, (5) establishing metrics research and development, and (6) fostering the need for federal leadership to expand and integrate EMS into a broader rural response framework. PMID:23077273

  2. Industrial arsenic contamination causes catastrophic changes in freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guangjie; Shi, Haibin; Tao, Jianshuang; Chen, Li; Liu, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Xiaohai; Smol, John P.

    2015-11-01

    Heavy metal pollution is now widely recognized to pose severe health and environmental threats, yet much of what is known concerning its adverse impacts on ecosystem health is derived from short-term ecotoxicological studies. Due to the frequent absence of long-term monitoring data, little is known of the long-tem ecological consequences of pollutants such as arsenic. Here, our dated sediment records from two contaminated lakes in China faithfully document a 13.9 and 21.4-fold increase of total arsenic relative to pre-1950 background levels. Concurrently, coherent responses in keystone biota signal pronounced ecosystem changes, with a >10-fold loss in crustacean zooplankton (important herbivores in the food webs of these lake systems) and a >5-fold increase in a highly metal-tolerant alga. Such fundamental ecological changes will cascade through the ecosystem, causing potentially catastrophic consequences for ecosystem services in contaminated regions.

  3. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  4. Catastrophe analysis on pillar instability considered mining effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    The instability of the pillar was discussed based on the potential energy principle and the cusp catastrophe theory, and a simplified mechanical model of the pillar was established considering the mining effect. The necessary-sufficient conditions, the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were deduced. The results show that the instability of the pillar is related to the properties of the rock, the external force and the relative stiffness of the elastic area to the plastic area. The instability of system is like to occur with the enlarging of the softening area or the decreasing of E/λ. The calculation done shows that the estimated results correspond to practical experience.

  5. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  6. MECHANISM AND CATASTROPHE THEORY ANALYSIS OF CIRCULAR TUNNEL ROCKBURST

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; ZHANG Yong; YU Guang-ming

    2006-01-01

    Mechanism of circular tunnel rockburst is that, when the carrying capacity of the centralized zone of plastic deformation in limiting state reduces, the comparatively intact part in rock mass unloads by way of elasticity; rockburst occurs immediately when the elastic energy released by the comparatively intact part exceeds the energy dissipated by plastic deformation. The equivalent strain was taken as a state variable to establish a catastrophe model of tunnel rockburst, and the computation expression of the earthquake energy released by tunnel rockburst was given. The analysis shows that, the conditions of rockburst occurrence are relative to rock's ratio of elastic modulus to descendent modulus and crack growth degree of rocks; to rock mass with specific rockburst tendency, there exists a corresponding critical depth of softened zone, and rockburst occurs when the depth of softened zone reaches.

  7. Critical Amount of Resource in Containing Catastrophic Epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Xiaolong; Feng, Ling; Yang, Chun; Wang, Moming; Fan, Xiaoming; Hu, Yanqing

    2016-01-01

    During an epidemic control, the containment of the disease is usually achieved through increasing public health resource to quickly identify, quarantine and cure the infected population. However, the exact impact of this resource expenditure on the physical spreading dynamics remains unknown. In this work we find that the influence of resource expenditure exhibits extreme critical behaviour, which is the first order phase transition in nature. Specifically, if the amount of invested resource is below a critical value, a significant fraction of the total population will become infected; once it is more than that critical value, the disease outbreak can be effectively eradicated or contained. This finding implies that the government expenditure on infectious disease control needs to meet a certain critical threshold to be of any effectiveness. Otherwise, the outbreak could be catastrophic. We have validated our theoretical results on one real contact network and three typical social networks, with all of them e...

  8. Eradicating Catastrophic Collapse in Interdependent Networks via Reinforced Nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xin; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    In interdependent networks, it is usually assumed, based on percolation theory, that nodes become nonfunctional if they lose connection to the network giant component. However, in reality, some nodes, equipped with alternative resources, together with their connected neighbors can still be functioning once disconnected from the giant component. Here we propose and study a generalized percolation model that introduces a fraction of reinforced nodes in the interdependent networks that can function and support their neighborhood. We analyze, both analytically and via simulations, the order parameter$-$the functioning component$-$comprising both the giant component and smaller components that include at least one reinforced node. Remarkably, we find that for interdependent networks, we need to reinforce only a small fraction of nodes to prevent abrupt catastrophic collapses. Moreover, we find that the universal upper bound of this fraction is 0.1756 for two interdependent Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi (ER) networks, regula...

  9. Catastrophe characteristics of the condensation and pool boiling phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xuehu; Xu, Dunqi; Lin, Jifang

    1995-02-01

    Recently, Utaka proposed two types of the transition modes of dropwise condensation, i.e. the continuous and the jumping modes, and presented a criterion for determining the condensation transition mode. Stylianous and Rose proposed two hypotheses, the coalescence-limited transition and the nucleation site saturation transition. Neither Utaka's criterion nor Rose's hypotheses could clearly interpret the physical mechanisms of the transition both from filmwise to dropwise and from dropwise to pseudofilm condensation, and explicitly presented the main factors affecting the transitions. Kalinin hs given a general review of the transition boiling heat transfer. The catastrophe theory will be applied here to eluicidate the complex phenomena of the transitions of the condensation and boiling pattern states.

  10. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  11. Chasma Australe Mars: Structural Framework for a Catastrophic Outflow Origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anguita, F.; Babin, R.; Benito, G.; Collado, A.; Gomez, D.; Rice, J. W.

    1998-01-01

    Chasma Australe is the most remarkable of the martian south pole erosional reentrants carved in the polar layered deposits. Ms chasma originates near the south pole and runs across the polar troughs over a distance of about 500 km. Its width varies between 20 and 80 km and, with a depth up to 1000 m, it reaches the bedrock. Following an idea put forward originally for Chasma Boreale, we propose for the genesis of Chasma Australe a mechanism of catastrophic outflow preceded by a tectonically induced powerful sapping process. A detailed geomorphological analysis of Chasma Australe shows erosional and depositional features that can be interpreted as produced by the motion of a fluid. Like other polar reentrants, Chasma Australe is clearly assymetric, with a steep eastern margin where basal and lateral erosion prevailed, and a gentler western side, where the stepped topography and bedrock spurs favored deposition.

  12. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    CERN Document Server

    Wurster, James; Bate, Matthew R

    2015-01-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionisation fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionisation chemistry assuming 0.1 micron grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13AU ca...

  13. Rotation-Dependent Catastrophic Disruption of Gravitational Aggregates

    CERN Document Server

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R

    2014-01-01

    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotat...

  14. Variable Structure Control of Catastrophic Course in Airdropping Heavy Cargo

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Huiyuan; Shi Zhongke

    2009-01-01

    The mathematical model of a transport aircraft would be subjected to a sudden change when heavy cargo is dropped off in airdropping, which exerts serious influences upon the safety of the aircraft. A variable structure controller is specially designed for handling the airdrop process. The nonlinear system is linearized by input-output feedback linearization using differential geometry theories. On this basis, an inner loop system for velocity and attitude tracking control is designed by using the exponentially approaching rule of the variable structure theory. The whole flight control system is integrated with the outer loop flight altitude control. Digital simulation evidences the applicability of the system to potentially catastrophic course in airdropping heavy cargo and provides robustness against system parameter perturbation.

  15. Stability of theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Wei-hui; WANG Yue-peng

    2007-01-01

    Stability related to theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction,which includes non-hydrostatic perfect elastic model and anelastic model, is discussed and analyzed in detail. It is proved that non-hydrostatic perfect elastic equations set is stable in the class of infinitely differentiable function. However, for the anelastic equations set, its continuity equation is changed in form because of the particular hypothesis for fluid, so "the matching consisting of both viscosity coefficient and incompressible assumption" appears, thereby the most important equations set of this class in practical prediction shows the same instability in topological property as Navier-Stokes equation,which should be avoided first in practical numerical prediction. In light of this, the referenced suggestions to amend the applied model are finally presented.

  16. CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL OF INSTABILITY OF PILLAR IN ASYMMETRIC MINING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    A simplified mechanical model of pillar-hang wall was established in asymmetric mining and instability of the system was discussed by means of potential energy principle and cusp catastrophe theory. The necessary-sufficient condition and the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were derived,which established foundation for quantifying of the instability of system. The results show that instability of the system is related to load and its stiffness distribution. The critical load increases with the increasing relative stiffness, and the system is more stable. On the contrary, the instability of system is likely to occur, and the released energy is larger in instability process, and the harm is more tremendous accordingly.Furthermore, an example was calculated, and the estimated results are in good agreement with the practical experience, which provide basis for mining order and arranging stope.

  17. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  18. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Brummitt, Charles D; D'Souza, Raissa M

    2014-01-01

    A profoundly important challenge in several disciplines today is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. We characterize these phenomena using a simple model grounded in the theory of fast--slow ordinary differential equations and in catastrophe theory. In the model, a system consists of multiple subsystems (e.g., countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem), each described by a scalar quantity (such as economic output or population) that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantities (e.g., trade couples economic output, diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves their bifurcations. The model elucidates two ways in which sudden changes can propaga...

  19. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  20. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  1. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  2. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investig

  3. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investiga

  4. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张亚平; 裴玉龙

    2004-01-01

    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  5. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit...

  6. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk financing and Pooled Insurance Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Pollner, John D

    2001-01-01

    This report examines the constraints and opportunities in implementing a catastrophe insurance system which can resolve the key obstacles impeding broader implementation of a risk funding approach. The four main pillars in such a strategy involve: 1) strengthening insurance sector regulatory requirements and supervision; 2) establishing broad-based pooled catastrophe funding structures wit...

  7. Analysis of Interlayer Connection Catastrophe Characteristics in Internet AS level Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-yuan Jia

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on CAIDA’s (cooperative association for Internet data analysis statistics at AS-level collected from April 2009 to April 2010, it is found that network size, degree correlations and clustering have changed significantly three times. According to the definition of k-core, the Internet topology is divided into different levels. In this paper, by analyzing the changing connection on each level at the three time spots, we found that the connection difference between the highest and the lowest level varies cyclically. Before Internet has significant change, the connection difference between the highest and the lowest shell changes acutely. At that time point it is the later stage of the fluctuation period which is the accumulation of small fluctuation. The concept of catastrophe coefficient is proposed for quantifying the probability of Internet catastrophe so that the catastrophe coefficient of Internet could be calculated on real time, and the catastrophe time spots could be predicted. Using real data for verification, it turns out that catastrophe coefficient can accurately predict the "giant fluctuations" occurrence in the macroscopic structure. With the proposal of the concept of catastrophe coefficient, the research can play an important guiding role in understanding the actual network internal development and changes, analyzing the cause of Internet catastrophe, preventing devastating catastrophe, planning and further re-designing Ipv6.

  8. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in malaysia.

    OpenAIRE

    Tharani Loganathan; Way-Seah Lee; Kok-Foo Lee; Mark Jit; Chiu-Wan Ng

    2015-01-01

    Background While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. Objectives We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. Methods A...

  9. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  10. Gérard Brugnot, 2008, Les Catastrophes Naturelles, Paris, Le Cavalier Bleu, 127 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Callens

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available La collection « idées reçues » se propose de faire le point sur les savoirs et les croyances à propos d’un thème donné. Le thème des « catastrophes naturelles » est présenté par Gérard Brugnot, qui commente 16 idées reçues sur ces risques majeurs, regroupées dans quatre chapitres : 1/ « il y a toujours eu des catastrophes naturelles, il y en aura toujours », 2/ « Des catastrophes vraiment toutes naturelles ? », 3/ « On peut réduire les effets des catastrophes naturelles », 4/ « Catastrophes n...

  11. Yoga attitudes in chronic low back pain: Roles of catastrophizing and fear of movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combs, Martha A; Thorn, Beverly E

    2015-08-01

    Chronic low back pain is a significant public health problem and, although underused, yoga may be an effective complementary treatment. The current study examined associations of pain catastrophizing and fear of movement with attitudes toward yoga in adults with chronic low back pain. Participants completed three quantitative questionnaires assessing specific constructs: beliefs about yoga, fear of movement, and pain catastrophizing. A semi-structured in-person interview was then conducted to obtain specific pain-related information. Hierarchical regression and mediational analyses were used to test hypotheses. Consistent with the fear-avoidance model of chronic pain, catastrophizing and fear of movement were negatively associated with yoga attitudes. Specifically, fear of movement was a mediator between catastrophizing and attitudes toward yoga. Individuals with higher levels of catastrophizing and fear of movement may be less likely to consider a pain treatment involving physical movement. PMID:26256134

  12. Large whale incident database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Large whale stranding, death, ship strike and entanglement incidents are all recorded to monitor the health of each population and track anthropogenic factors that...

  13. Police Incident Blotter (Archive)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Police Blotter Archive contains crime incident data after it has been validated and processed to meet Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) standards, published on a...

  14. Incident Report - Legacy

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Incident Report is a mandatory post trip legal document observers fill out to report any enforcement related situations they have encountered on an observed...

  15. NRC Incident Response Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulates civilian nuclear activities to protect the public health and safety and to preserve environmental quality. An Incident Response Plan had been developed and has now been revised to reflect current Commission policy. NUREG-0728, Rev. 2 assigns responsibilities for responding to any potentially threatening incident involving NRC licensed activities and for assuring that the NRC will fulfill it statutory mission. This report has also been reproduced for staff use as NRC Manual Chapter 0502

  16. The critical incident inventory: characteristics of incidents which affect emergency medical technicians and paramedics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halpern Janice

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emergency medical technicians (EMTs and paramedics experience critical incidents which evoke distress and impaired functioning but it is unknown which aspects of incidents contribute to their impact. We sought to determine these specific characteristics by developing an inventory of critical incident characteristics and testing their relationship to protracted recovery from acute stress, and subsequent emotional symptoms. Methods EMT/paramedics (n = 223 completed a retrospective survey of reactions to an index critical incident, and current depressive, posttraumatic and burnout symptoms. Thirty-six potential event characteristics were evaluated; 22 were associated with peritraumatic distress and were retained. We assigned inventory items to one of three domains: situational, systemic or personal characteristics. We tested the relationships between (a endorsing any domain item and (b outcomes of the critical incident (peritraumatic dissociation, recovery from components of the Acute Stress Reaction and depressive, posttraumatic, and burnout symptoms. Analyses were repeated for the number of items endorsed. Results Personal and situational characteristics were most frequently endorsed. The personal domain had the strongest associations, particularly with peritraumatic dissociation, prolonged distressing feelings, and current posttraumatic symptoms. The situational domain was associated with peritraumatic dissociation, prolonged social withdrawal, and current posttraumatic symptoms. The systemic domain was associated with peritraumatic dissociation and prolonged irritability. Endorsing multiple characteristics was related to peritraumatic, acute stress, and current posttraumatic symptoms. Relationships with outcome variables were as strong for a 14-item inventory (situational and personal characteristics only as the 22-item inventory. Conclusions Emotional sequelae are associated most strongly with EMT/paramedics’ personal

  17. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  18. Gravothermal catastrophe in the framework of f(R) gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Thiago B.R.F.; Santos, Janilo [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), RN (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    , affects the so called gravothermal catastrophe in the context of f(R) gravity. As is well known, the thermodynamics of self-gravitating systems shows a stable branch for negative specific heat, a phenomenon known as gravothermal catastrophe. This can be derived from the virial theorem applied to astrophysical systems and has important consequences for the stability of nuclear burning in the cores of stars. (author)

  19. Observational Constraints on the Catastrophic Disruption Rate of Small Main Belt Asteroids

    CERN Document Server

    Denneau, Larry; Fitzsimmons, Alan; Hsieh, Henry; Kleyna, Jan; Granvik, Mikael; Micheli, Marco; Spahr, T; Vereš, Peter; Wainscoat, Richard; Burgett, W S; Chambers, K C; Draper, P W; Flewelling, H; Huber, M E; Kaiser, N; Morgan, J S; Tonry, J L

    2014-01-01

    We have calculated 90% confidence limits on the steady-state rate of catastrophic disruptions of main belt asteroids in terms of the absolute magnitude at which one catastrophic disruption occurs per year (HCL) as a function of the post-disruption increase in brightness (delta m) and subsequent brightness decay rate (tau). The confidence limits were calculated using the brightest unknown main belt asteroid (V = 18.5) detected with the Pan-STARRS1 (Pan-STARRS1) telescope. We measured the Pan-STARRS1's catastrophic disruption detection efficiency over a 453-day interval using the Pan-STARRS moving object processing system (MOPS) and a simple model for the catastrophic disruption event's photometric behavior in a small aperture centered on the catastrophic disruption event. Our simplistic catastrophic disruption model suggests that delta m = 20 mag and 0.01 mag d-1 99% of main belt catastrophic disruptions in the size range to which this study was sensitive (100 m) are not impact-generated, but are instead due ...

  20. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.

  1. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  2. Catastrophic debris avalanche deposit of Socompa volcano, northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, P. W.; Gardeweg, M.; Ramirez, C. F.; Rothery, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Between 10,000 and 500 yr ago the Socompa volcano in northern Chile experienced a catastrophic collapse of a 70 deg sector of the original cone, causing a debris avalanche that descended nearly 3000 m vertically and traveled more than 35 km from the volcano. The deposits cover some 490 sq km and have a minimum volume of 15 cu km. Parts of the original cone slumped in a nearly coherent form and are now preserved as large blocks more than 400 m high. The primary avalanche traveled northwestward over sloping ground before coming to rest transiently, forming a prominent marginal ridge, and then slid away northeastward to form a secondary flow, overriding much of the primary avalanche deposit. Abundant, prismatic, jointed dacite blocks within the debris avalanche deposit and a thin, fine-grained pumiceous deposit beneath it suggest that the collapse was triggered by magmatic activity and may have been accompanied by a violent lateral blast. Collapse was followed by eruption of pumiceous pyroclastic flows and extrusion of voluminous dacite domes.

  3. Reconciling the infrared catastrophe and observations of SN 2011fe

    CERN Document Server

    Fransson, Claes

    2015-01-01

    The observational effects of the 'Infrared Catastrophe' are discussed in view of the very late observations of the Type Ia SN 2011fe. Our model spectra at 1000d take non-local radiative transfer into account, and find that this has a crucial impact on the spectral formation. Although rapid cooling of the ejecta to a few 100 K occurs also in these models, the late-time optical/NIR flux is brighter by 1-2 magnitudes due to redistribution of UV emissivity, resulting from non-thermal excitation and ionization. This effect brings models into better agreement with late-time observations of SN 2011fe and other Type Ia supernovae, and offers a solution to the long standing discrepancy between models and observations. The models show that spectral formation shifts from Fe II and Fe III at 300d to Fe I at 1000d, which explains the apparent wavelength shifts seen in SN2011fe. We discuss effects of time dependence and energy input from 57Co, finding both to be important at 1000d.

  4. Quantum resonance catastrophe for conductance through a periodically driven barrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuberg, Daniel; Reyes, Sebastián A.; Eggert, Sebastian

    2016-05-01

    We consider the quantum conductance in a tight-binding chain with a locally applied potential which is oscillating in time. The steady state for such a driven impurity can be calculated exactly for any energy and applied potential using the Floquet formalism. The resulting transmission has a nontrivial, nonmonotonic behavior depending on incoming momentum, driving frequency, and the strength of the applied periodic potential. Hence there is an abundance of tuning possibilities, which allows finding the resonances of total reflection for any choice of incoming momentum and periodic potential. Remarkably, this implies that even for an arbitrarily small infinitesimal impurity potential it is always possible to find a resonance frequency at which there is a catastrophic breakdown of the transmission T =0 . The points of zero transmission are closely related to the phenomenon of Fano resonances at dynamically created bound states in the continuum. The results are relevant for a variety of one-dimensional systems where local AC driving is possible, such as quantum nanodot arrays, ultracold gases in optical lattices, photonic crystals, or molecular electronics.

  5. Evaluation of catastrophic failure risk in pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the Nordic countries a four-year research programme in the area of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics was initiated in 1985. Seven laboratories from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are participating in the programme. The main technical objective of the programme is to clarify how catastrophic fracture can be prevented in pressure vessels and piping by using the leak-before-break concept. The major experimental effort of the programme is destructive pressurization of a large size pressure vessel up to rupture. The vessel has dimensions similar to a nuclear reactor pressure vessel and it has been in operation for 20 years in a Finnish oil refinery plant. The materials characterization of the vessel has been partially carried out within an extensive Nordic round-robin programme. Two pressure tests have been carried out. In both tests an artificial sharp axial surface flaw was made on the inner wall of the vessel. The experimental details of the last test including repair welding of the vessel, flaw prepration, instrumentation and material characterization are described in this report. The fracture behaviour as well as experimental results are reported. The failure pressure is compared to estimates of the analytical pre-test calculations

  6. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; LI Ai-wu; QI Yun-song

    2009-01-01

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well as. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This plot contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions.

  7. Pathophysiology of repetitive head injury in sports. Prevention against catastrophic brain damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The most common head injury in sports is concussion and experiencing multiple concussions in a short period of time sometimes can cause severe brain damage. In this paper, we investigate severe brain damage due to repeated head injury in sports and discuss the pathophysiology of repeated sports injury. The majority of these severe cases are usually male adolescents or young adults that suffer a second head injury before they have recovered from the first head injury. All cases that could be confirmed by brain CT scan after the second injury revealed brain swelling associated with a thin subdural hematoma. We suggested that the existence of subdural hematoma is one of the major causes of brain swelling after repeated head injury in sports. Since repeated concussions occurring within a short period may have a risk for severe brain damage, the diagnosis for initial cerebral concussion should be done appropriately. To prevent catastrophic brain damage, the player who suffered from concussion should not engage in any sports before recovery. The american Academy of Neurology and Colorado Medical Society set a guideline to return to play after cerebral concussion. An international conference on concussion in sports was held at Prague in 2004. The summary and agreement of this meeting was published and the Sports Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) was introduced to treat sports-related concussion. In addition, a number of computerized cognitive assessment tests and test batteries have been developed to allow athletes to return to play. It is important that coaches, as well as players and trainers, understand the medical issues involved in concussion. (author)

  8. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    CERN Document Server

    Kliem, B; Forbes, T G; Priest, E R; Török, T

    2014-01-01

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  9. National Health Insurance Scheme: How Protected Are Households in Oyo State, Nigeria from Catastrophic Health Expenditure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The major objective of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in Nigeria is to protect families from the financial hardship of large medical bills. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE is rampart in Nigeria despite the take-off of the NHIS. This study aimed to determine if households enrolled in the NHIS were protected from having CHE. Methods The study took place among 714 households in urban communities of Oyo State. CHE was measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. Descriptive statistics were done, Principal Component Analysis was used to divide households into wealth quintiles. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were done. Results The mean age of household respondent was 33.5 years. The median household income was 43,500 naira (290 US dollars and the range was 7,000–680,000 naira (46.7–4,533 US dollars in 2012. The overall median household healthcare cost was 890 naira (5.9 US dollars and the range was 10-17,700 naira (0.1–118 US dollars in 2012. In all, 67 (9.4% households were enrolled in NHIS scheme. Healthcare services was utilized by 637 (82.9% and CHE occurred in 42 (6.6% households. CHE occurred in 14 (10.9% of the households in the lowest quintile compared to 3 (2.5% in the highest wealth quintile (P= 0.004. The odds of CHE among households in lowest wealth quintile is about 5 times. They had Crude OR (CI: 4.7 (1.3–16.8, P= 0.022. Non enrolled households were two times likely to have CHE, though not significant Conclusion Households in the lowest wealth quintiles were at higher risk of CHE. Universal coverage of health insurance in Nigeria should be fast-tracked to give the expected financial risk protection and decreased incidence of CHE.

  10. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-03-06

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  11. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  12. Upset Prevention and Recovery for Unimpaired and Impaired Aircraft Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of the project is the development of an on-board envelope estimation, protection and upset recovery tool to address loss of control incidents in...

  13. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  14. Wavelength dependence of catastrophic optical damage threshold in 980nm semiconductor diode lasers

    OpenAIRE

    Lock, D; Sweeney, SJ; Adams, AR

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the wavelength dependence of the catastrophic optical damage current in 980nm lasers. Using high pressure and low temperature techniques, we find an intrinsic dependence of this threshold on wavelength.

  15. Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

  16. Genome sequencing of pediatric medulloblastoma links catastrophic DNA rearrangements with TP53 mutations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rausch, Tobias; Jones, David T W; Zapatka, Marc;

    2012-01-01

    Genomic rearrangements are thought to occur progressively during tumor development. Recent findings, however, suggest an alternative mechanism, involving massive chromosome rearrangements in a one-step catastrophic event termed chromothripsis. We report the whole-genome sequencing-based analysis ...

  17. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  18. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  19. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Renata Antunes; Dias, Rosângela Corrêa; Queiroz, Bárbara Zille de; Rosa, Nayza Maciel de Britto; Pereira, Leani de Souza Máximo; Dias, João Marcos Domingues; Magalhães, Lívia de Castro

    2015-05-01

    Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals ). The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations. PMID:26017211

  20. Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebora, N.; Gabellani, S.; Rudari, R.; Silvestro, F.; Parodi, A.; Gochis, D.

    2012-12-01

    On November 4th, 2011, the city of Genoa, Italy, located between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains, was witness to a catastrophic flash flood. About 500 millimeters of rain -a third of the average annual rainfall- fell in approximately six hours. The waters that flooded the town center equated to an approximately 300 year flood event. Six people perished, commercial property was inundated, cars were swept away and many trees were uprooted. We analyze the performance of cloud-permitting (1 km) model simulations of the convective system responsible for this extreme event using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3) with its associated hydrological modeling extension ('WRF-Hydro') focusing on the utility of model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood prediction. WRF model skill is assessed with respect to specification of cloud microphysics, convection and land surface physics parameterizations. The QPF results strongly suggest an event dominated by comparatively shallow warm rain processes where local maxima were the product of both synoptic scale dynamics and orographic enhancement over the Apennine mountain range. Land and sea surface temperature forcing was assess but found to be secondary in importance. Streamflow prediction skill from the fully coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system was compared against observations and against offline or 'uncoupled' hydrological model runs, driven by several quantitative precipitation estimate (QPEs) products. The results illustrate the significant sensitivity of the predicted (simulated) streamflow event to QPF (QPE) skill and emphasize the importance of taking into account many factors and sources of error in the hydrometeorological prediction chain. The end product of this study is a comprehensive evaluation and justification for optimal configurations of the WRF-Hydro modeling system for high-impact Mediterranean flood events for use in future forecasting

  1. Catastrophic oxidation of Zr-TM (noble metals) glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jastrow, Lioba; Koester, Uwe; Meuris, Monika

    2004-07-15

    Glassy Zr{sub 70}Pd{sub 30} as well as Zr{sub 70}Au{sub 30} prepared by melt-spinning exhibit a 'catastrophic' oxidation behavior in wet as well as synthetic air. For example, at a temperature of 270 deg. C, ribbons (about 30 {mu}m in thickness) are fully oxidized within a few hours. Thermogravimetric analysis reveals an oxidation kinetics by orders of magnitude faster than those in comparable Zr-Pt or Zr-Ni, Zr-Cu as well as related ternary or quaternary glasses. Detailed microstructural investigations, in particular cross-sectional microscopy, revealed details of this reaction and indicate for example for Zr-Au glasses at 25 deg. C an oxygen diffusivity in the developing zirconia scale of about 2x10{sup -17} m{sup 2} s{sup -1}; such a diffusivity is known to occur for stabilized ZrO{sub 2} only at about 300 deg. C. At the as-cast free surface of the ribbon nucleation of the oxidation process starts at defects like scratches or along the grooves at the contact side. The developing 'vulcano' like morphology (with diameters in the range of 10 {mu}m or more) can be explained assuming a diffusion controlled thickening of the scale, but linear lateral growth. It is of interest that the occurrence of extreme fast oxidation is correlated with significant changes in the zirconia microstructure as indicated by a decrease in the intensity of the low-indexed diffraction lines; TEM reveals a nanocrystalline structure with ZrO{sub 2} crystal diameters even below 5 nm. The results will be discussed in detail taking into account for example the different redox potentials of the noble metals, their catalytic activity, the Zr-noble metal bond strength as well as the density of states at the Fermi level of the glasses.

  2. Using Catastrophe-Linked Securities to Diversity Insurance Risk: A Financial Analysis of Cat Bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Henri Louberge; Evis Kellezi; Manfred Gilli

    1999-01-01

    Severe natural catastrophes in the early 1990s generated a lack of financial capacity in the catastrophe line of the global reinsurance market. The finance industry reacted to this situation by issuing innovative products designed to spread the excess risk more widely among international investors (risk securitization). The paper reviews these developments and emphasizes their significance with respect to the economic theory of risk exchanges. Special attention is devoted to the case of catas...

  3. Childhood Trauma and Pain and Pain Catastrophizing in Adulthood: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study

    OpenAIRE

    Sansone, Randy A.; Watts, Daron A.; Wiederman, Michael W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Previous studies have indicated relationships between trauma in childhood and pain in adulthood, although some studies have reported no such relationships and challenge the methodologies of large-scale community samples. In this study involving a clinical sample, we examined relationships among (1) childhood trauma at ages 12 or younger, (2) rated pain for 3 time points in adulthood, and (3) pain catastrophizing (ie, catastrophic thoughts and feelings about pain).

  4. The reasons for the application of chaos theory to the analysis of catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valery, Kudin

    2014-05-01

    The study of catastrophes is necessary for understanding the nature of the interaction between the individual and the universal in the process of the development of complex systems. Chaos theory, allowing describing adaptation and bifurcation mechanisms for the development of systems, defines the catastrophes as a transition of the system into a different state (change of structure). The previous state of the system is destroyed because of fluctuations, which do not play a role in the development of the system until it reaches the instability region that is inherent to any system. The catastrophe is considered in this theory as a stage in the evolution of the system, and thus emphasizes the importance of catastrophes for the development of any system. We rarely manage events comprehensively, as events are always subject to changes like gas molecules changing the trajectory of motion each moment under the influence of countless blows. The concept of catastrophes is much broader and is generally applicable to any final result of collision of opposing aspirations. Philosophical definition of catastrophes comes down to the destruction of the unity, accompanied by violent collision between different parts, the growing disruption, failure to prevent crossing the dangerous threshold... As a final vertex of action, disaster is not, however, directly its end: the action may continue after the catastrophe, but in the direction that is determined by the character of opposing aspirations. Major catastrophes, which have already destroyed and continue to ravage the world today, come from a superficial use of the laws of the development of complex systems and, in particular, of individual techniques of the chaos theory.

  5. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  6. Equilibrium balking strategies in the single server Markovian queue with catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Boudali, Olga

    2011-01-01

    We consider a Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural reward-cost structure. We study the balking behavior of the customers and derive the corresponding Nash equilibrium strategies.

  7. Modelling Catastrophic Risk in International Equity Markets: An Extreme Value Approach

    OpenAIRE

    COTTER John

    2011-01-01

    This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application to leading markets, the letter finds that the Nikkei is more prone to catastrophic risk than the FTSE and Dow Jones Indexes.

  8. Use of catastrophe risk models in assessing sovereign food security for risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Mohan; Hohl, Roman

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description...

  9. Catastrophizing and fear of tinnitus predict quality of life in patients with chronic tinnitus

    OpenAIRE

    Cima, Rilana FF; Crombez, Geert; Vlaeyen, Johan WS

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: It is well established that catastrophic misinterpretations and fear are involved in the suffering and disability of patients with chronic pain. This study investigated whether similar processes explain suffering and disability in patients with chronic tinnitus. We hypothesized that patients who catastrophically (mis)interpret their tinnitus would be more fearful of tinnitus, more vigilant toward their tinnitus, and report less quality of life. Moreover, tinnitus-related fear was ...

  10. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  11. Polymorphism in serotonin receptor 3B is associated with pain catastrophizing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Horjales-Araujo

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a coping style characterized by excessively negative thoughts and emotions in relation to pain, is one of the psychological factors that most markedly predicts variability in the perception of pain; however, only little is known about the underlying neurobiology. The aim of this study was to test for associations between psychological variables, such as pain catastrophizing, anxiety and depression, and selected polymorphisms in genes related to monoaminergic neurotransmission, in particular serotonin pathway genes. Three hundred seventy-nine healthy participants completed a set of psychological questionnaires: the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory, and were genotyped for 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in nine genes. The SNP rs1176744 located in the serotonin receptor 3B gene (5-HTR3B was found to be associated with pain catastrophizing scores: both the global score and the subscales of magnification and helplessness. This is the first study to show an association between 5-HTR3B and PCS scores, thus suggesting a role of the serotonin pathway in pain catastrophizing. Since 5-HTR3B has previously been associated with descending pain modulation pathways, future studies will be of great interest to elucidate the molecular pathways involved in the relation between serotonin, its receptors and pain catastrophizing.

  12. Relationships Between Refraining From Catastrophic Thinking, Repetitive Negative Thinking, and Psychological Distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Tomoko; Sugiura, Yoshinori

    2016-10-01

    Skills to refrain from catastrophic thinking were negatively related to worry and a wide range of psychological distress. Repetitive negative thinking (including worry) is proposed as a common etiological factor for a wide range of psychological distress. Therefore, reduced repetitive negative thinking would mediate the negative relation between refraining from catastrophic thinking and psychological distress (depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsessions and compulsions). As an overlap between five indices of psychological distress was expected, we first computed latent factors underlying them, which were then predicted by refraining from catastrophic thinking and repetitive negative thinking. Cross-sectional questionnaire data from 125 nonclinical voluntarily participating students (M age = 19.0 years, SD = 3.6; 54% women) supported the predictions: refraining from catastrophic thinking was negatively correlated with depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsession and compulsion. Repetitive negative thinking mediated the negative relationship between refraining from catastrophic thinking and latent factors underlying psychological distress (Fear and Distress). Refraining from catastrophic thinking may be negatively correlated with psychological distress due to its negative relation to repetitive negative thinking. PMID:27511967

  13. Incident users of antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baandrup, Lone; Kruse, Marie

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: In Denmark, as well as in many other countries, consumption of antipsychotics is on the rise, partly due to increasing off-label use. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the extent of off-label use and polypharmacy in incident users of antipsychotic medication, and to exami....... As a consequence of the range of adverse effects associated with antipsychotic drug use, the documented widespread off-label prescribing practices warrant careful monitoring for adverse effects and prompt discontinuation in case of an unfavorable risk-benefit ratio.......PURPOSE: In Denmark, as well as in many other countries, consumption of antipsychotics is on the rise, partly due to increasing off-label use. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the extent of off-label use and polypharmacy in incident users of antipsychotic medication, and to examine...

  14. Incidence of dilated cardiomyopathy

    OpenAIRE

    Abelmann, Walter H.

    1985-01-01

    Full reliable data on the incidence and prevalence of dilated cardiomyopathy are not available. In the United States, at least 0.7% of cardiac deaths are attributable to cardiomyopathy. Dilated cardiomyopathy probably contributes the great majority of these cases. The mortality rate for cardiomyopathy in males is twice that of females, and for blacks it is 2.4 times that of whites. Cardiomyopathy was diagnosed in 0.67% of patients discharged from hospitals in 1979 with diagnoses of disease of...

  15. Contaminated Mexican steel incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report documents the circumstances contributing to the inadvertent melting of cobalt 60 (Co-60) contaminated scrap metal in two Mexican steel foundries and the subsequent distribution of contaminated steel products into the United States. The report addresses mainly those actions taken by US Federal and state agencies to protect the US population from radiation risks associated with the incident. Mexico had much more serious radiation exposure and contamination problems to manage. The United States Government maintained a standing offer to provide technical and medical assistance to the Mexican Government. The report covers the tracing of the source to its origin, response actions to recover radioactive steel in the United States, and return of the contaminated materials to Mexico. The incident resulted in significant radiation exposures within Mexico, but no known significant exposure within the United States. Response to the incident required the combined efforts of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Department of State, and US Customs Service (Department of Treasury) personnel at the Federal level and representatives of all 50 State Radiation Control Programs and, in some instances, local and county government personnel. The response also required a diplomatic interface with the Mexican Government and cooperation of numerous commercial establishments and members of the general public. The report describes the factual information associated with the event and may serve as information for subsequent recommendations and actions by the NRC. 8 figures

  16. Cancer incidence among waiters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijula, Jere; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth;

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: To study cancer risk patterns among waiters in the Nordic countries. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 16,134 male and 81,838 female waiters from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. During the follow-up period from 1961 to 2005, we found that 19,388 incident cancer cases were...... diagnosed. Standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was defined as the observed number of cancer cases divided by the expected number, based on national age, time period and gender-specific cancer incidence rates in the general population. RESULTS: The SIR of all cancers in waiters, in the five countries combined......, was 1.46 (95% CI 1.41-1.51) in men and 1.09 (1.07-1.11) in women. In male waiters, the SIR decreased from 1.79 (1.63-1.96) in 1961-1975, to 1.33 (1.26-1.40) in 1991-2005, but remained stable among women. The SIR among male waiters was highest for cancers in the pharynx (6.11; 95% CI 5.02-7.37), oral...

  17. Incident Wave Climate at the OWC Pico Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Crom, I.; Cabrera Bermejo, H.; Pecher, Arthur;

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study is to retrieve the incident wave information that coincides with former Pico plant operation periods. The recent implementation of a directional pressure sensor for wave measurement as well as the recovery of the data gathered by a directional wave rider buoy allowed embarking...

  18. Heart Attack Recovery FAQs

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pressure High Blood Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Recovery FAQs Updated:Aug 24,2016 Most people ... recovery. View an animation of a heart attack . Heart Attack Recovery Questions and Answers What treatments will I ...

  19. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  20. Congestion with incidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of random delays during a repeatedly occurring demand peak in a congested facility, such as an airport or an urban road. Congestion is described in the form of a dynamic queue using the Vickrey bottleneck model and assuming Nash equilibrium in departure times. Every...... period an incident may occur at a random time, temporarily reducing the bottleneck capacity to zero. The paper gives some properties of Nash equilibrium and the social optimum as well as a pretty good welfare improving tolling scheme....

  1. Time series analysis of influenza incidence in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xin; Xiao, Jun; Deng, Jiang; Kang, Qiong; Zhang, Yanyu; Xu, Jinbo

    2016-06-01

    Influenza as a severe infectious disease has caused catastrophes throughout human history, and every pandemic of influenza has produced a great social burden. We compiled monthly data of influenza incidence from all provinces and autonomous regions in mainland China from January 2004 to December 2011, comprehensively evaluated and classified these data, and then randomly selected 4 provinces with higher incidence (Hebei, Gansu, Guizhou, and Hunan), 2 provinces with median incidence (Tianjin and Henan), 1 province with lower incidence (Shandong), using time series analysis to construct an ARIMA model, which is based on the monthly incidence from 2004 to 2011 as the training set. We exerted the X-12-ARIMA procedure for modeling due to the seasonality these data implied. Autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and automatic model selection were to determine the order of the model parameters. The optimal model was decided by a nonseasonal and seasonal moving average test. Finally, we applied this model to predict the monthly incidence of influenza in 2012 as the test set, and the simulated incidence was compared with the observed incidence to evaluate the model's validity by the criterion of both percentage variability in regression analyses (R) and root mean square error (RMSE). It is conceivable that SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 could simultaneously forecast the influenza incidence of the Hebei Province, Guizhou Province, Henan Province, and Shandong Province; SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 could forecast the influenza incidence in Gansu Province; SARIMA (3,1,1)(0,1,1)12 could forecast the influenza incidence in Tianjin City; and SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 could forecast the influenza incidence in Hunan Province. Time series analysis is a good tool for prediction of disease incidence. PMID:27367989

  2. Critical Incidents in Internal Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    Voima, PÀivi

    2000-01-01

    Critical incidents have had an important role in service quality and service management research. The focus of critical-incident studies has gradually shifted from separate acts and episodes towards relationships, and even switching from one relationship to another. The Critical Incident Technique has mainly been used when studying the service sector, concentrating on the customer's perception of critical incidents. Although some studies have considered the perceptions of employees important,...

  3. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  4. Catastrophe model and its experimental verification of static loading rock system under impact load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    According to the catastrophe model for impact buckling of static loading structures, a new catastrophe model for impact loading failure of a static loading rock system was established, and one dimension (1D) catastrophe model was analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the furcation collection where catastrophe may take place is not only decided by mechanical system itself but also relates to exterior loading, which is different from the results obtained under mono-static loading where the bifurcation collection is only determined by mechanics of the system itself and has nothing to do with exterior loading. In addition, the corresponding 1D coupled static-dynamic loading experiment is designed to verify the analysis results of catastrophe model The test is done with Instron 1342 electroservo controlled testing system, in which medium strain rate is caused by monotony rising dynamic load. The parameters are obtained combining theoretical model with experiment. The experimental and theoretical curves of critical dynamic load vs static load are rather coincided, thus the new model is proved to be correct.

  5. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-04-01

    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  6. Determinants of mitotic catastrophe on abrogation of the G2 DNA damage checkpoint by UCN-01.

    Science.gov (United States)

    On, Kin Fan; Chen, Yue; Ma, Hoi Tang; Chow, Jeremy P H; Poon, Randy Y C

    2011-05-01

    Genotoxic stress such as ionizing radiation halts entry into mitosis by activation of the G(2) DNA damage checkpoint. The CHK1 inhibitor 7-hydroxystaurosporine (UCN-01) can bypass the checkpoint and induce unscheduled mitosis in irradiated cells. Precisely, how cells behave following checkpoint abrogation remains to be defined. In this study, we tracked the fates of individual cells after checkpoint abrogation, focusing in particular on whether they undergo mitotic catastrophe. Surprisingly, while a subset of UCN-01-treated cells were immediately eliminated during the first mitosis after checkpoint abrogation, about half remained viable and progressed into G(1). Both the delay of mitotic entry and the level of mitotic catastrophe were dependent on the dose of radiation. Although the level of mitotic catastrophe was specific for different cell lines, it could be promoted by extending the mitosis. In supporting this idea, weakening of the spindle-assembly checkpoint, by either depleting MAD2 or overexpressing the MAD2-binding protein p31(comet), suppressed mitotic catastrophe. Conversely, delaying of mitotic exit by depleting either p31(comet) or CDC20 tipped the balance toward mitotic catastrophe. These results underscore the interplay between the level of DNA damage and the effectiveness of the spindle-assembly checkpoint in determining whether checkpoint-abrogated cells are eliminated during mitosis.

  7. Incident Management: Process into Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, Gayle; Moore, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Tornados, shootings, fires--these are emergencies that require fast action by school district personnel, but they are not the only incidents that require risk management. The authors have introduced the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and the Incident Command System (ICS) and assured that these systems can help educators plan for and…

  8. Racist Incident-Based Trauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant-Davis, Thema; Ocampo, Carlota

    2005-01-01

    Racist incidents are potentially traumatizing forms of victimization that may lead to increased psychiatric and psychophysiological symptoms in targets. The magnitude of the problem of racist incidents in the United States is difficult to estimate; however, data from several sources permit the inference that the prevalence of racist incidents,…

  9. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, C J

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  10. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, C.J. [Department of Botany, 2502 Plant Sciences Building, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7271 (United States)

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very

  11. Pain-related Catastrophizing and Perceived Social Responses: Inter-relationships in the Context of Chronic Pain

    OpenAIRE

    Buenaver, Luis F.; Edwards, Robert R.; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Pain-related coping, particularly catastrophizing, plays a significant role in shaping pain responses. One way catastrophizing is hypothesized to amplify pain and disability is via its effect on patients, social environments (e.g., communal coping model), though empirical support is limited. The present study tested whether the association between catastrophizing and deleterious pain-related outcomes was mediated by patients’ perceptions of significant others’ responses to their pain in a sam...

  12. Association between catastrophizing and self-rated pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    K. Meyer; Tschopp, A.; Sprott, H; Mannion, A. F.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing plays an important role in models of pain chronicity, showing a consistent correlation with both pain intensity and disability. It is conceivable that these associations are mediated or confounded by other psychological attributes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relative influence of catastrophizing and other psychological variables on pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Ro...

  13. Indian community health insurance schemes provide partial protection against catastrophic health expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranson Kent

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More than 72% of health expenditure in India is financed by individual households at the time of illness through out-of-pocket payments. This is a highly regressive way of financing health care and sometimes leads to impoverishment. Health insurance is recommended as a measure to protect households from such catastrophic health expenditure (CHE. We studied two Indian community health insurance (CHI schemes, ACCORD and SEWA, to determine whether insured households are protected from CHE. Methods ACCORD provides health insurance cover for the indigenous population, living in Gudalur, Tamil Nadu. SEWA provides insurance cover for self employed women in the state of Gujarat. Both cover hospitalisation expenses, but only upto a maximum limit of US$23 and US$45, respectively. We reviewed the insurance claims registers in both schemes and identified patients who were hospitalised during the period 01/04/2003 to 31/03/2004. Details of their diagnoses, places and costs of treatment and self-reported annual incomes were obtained. There is no single definition of CHE and none of these have been validated. For this research, we used the following definition; "annual hospital expenditure greater than 10% of annual income," to identify those who experienced CHE. Results There were a total of 683 and 3152 hospital admissions at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. In the absence of the CHI scheme, all of the patients at ACCORD and SEWA would have had to pay OOP for their hospitalisation. With the CHI scheme, 67% and 34% of patients did not have to make any out-of-pocket (OOP payment for their hospital expenses at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. Both CHI schemes halved the number of households that would have experienced CHE by covering hospital costs. However, despite this, 4% and 23% of households with admissions still experienced CHE at ACCORD and SEWA, respectively. This was related to the following conditions: low annual income, benefit

  14. Statement of nuclear incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eight incidents were reported. Three mothers (two at BNFL's Sellafield Reprocessing Plant and one at Berkeley Nuclear Laboratories) had been contaminated and received more than the annual dose limit. At the Winfrith Atomic Energy Establishment, Cs124 and Cs137 had been washed off the outside of a flask onto the ground. At the BNFL Springfields works a discharge of a solution of natural uranium had occurred to the site foul drain. At the Drigg storage and disposal site a leak from a storage tank was reported. In the other three cases no radioactive release occurred. There was a loose coupling on a tiebar of a fuel stringer at Heysham-I reactor, water beneath a pipeline discharging from Harwell Laboratory was found not to be contaminated and at Dungeness-B a fuel assembly was dropped to the bottom of the reactor during refuelling. (UK)

  15. Grazing incidence beam expander

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akkapeddi, P.R.; Glenn, P.; Fuschetto, A.; Appert, Q.; Viswanathan, V.K.

    1985-01-01

    A Grazing Incidence Beam Expander (GIBE) telescope is being designed and fabricated to be used as an equivalent end mirror in a long laser resonator cavity. The design requirements for this GIBE flow down from a generic Free Electron Laser (FEL) resonator. The nature of the FEL gain volume (a thin, pencil-like, on-axis region) dictates that the output beam be very small. Such a thin beam with the high power levels characteristic of FELs would have to travel perhaps hundreds of meters or more before expanding enough to allow reflection from cooled mirrors. A GIBE, on the other hand, would allow placing these optics closer to the gain region and thus reduces the cavity lengths substantially. Results are presented relating to optical and mechanical design, alignment sensitivity analysis, radius of curvature analysis, laser cavity stability analysis of a linear stable concentric laser cavity with a GIBE. Fabrication details of the GIBE are also given.

  16. Factors associated with increased risk for pain catastrophizing in patients with chronic neck pain: A retrospective cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang Jun; Lee, Rippy; Yoon, Duck Mi; Yoon, Kyung Bong; Kim, Kiwook; Kim, Shin Hyung

    2016-09-01

    Pain catastrophizing is becoming increasingly recognized as a clinically important psychological factor in chronic musculoskeletal pain. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we have identified factors associated with an increased risk for pain catastrophizing in chronic neck pain (CNP) patients. We obtained data from our medical database on 331 patients who were treated for neck pain as their chief complaint at our clinic. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to define a high pain catastrophizing state (PCS score ≥21) in this study. Patient demographics, pain-related factors, and psychological factors were evaluated with logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of high pain catastrophizing among patients with CNP. A total of 256 patients with CNP satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were included in the analyses. The median PCS score was 16 (range, 0-45), and 86 of 256 patients (33.5%) reported a PCS score ≥21. In multivariate analysis, high pain intensity, clinical insomnia, and a high level of depression/anxiety were strongly associated with high pain catastrophizing in patients with CNP. Depression was the strongest predictor of high pain catastrophizing, with an odds ratio of 7.35 (95% confidence interval 2.23-24.22). High pain catastrophizing was not significantly related to age, gender, comorbidities, or neck pain-related physical symptoms. In conclusion, poor psychological states should be addressed as an important part of pain management in CNP patients who are susceptible to high pain catastrophizing. PMID:27631217

  17. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  18. Immune recovery vitritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dujić Mirjana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Immune recovery vitritis (IRV is symptomatic vitritis of > 1+ severity associated with inactive cytomegalovirus (CMV retinitis. It is an opportunistic infection of the eye, in the patients who suffer from AIDS, and is treated with a highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART. As a result of this therapy, there is an immune reconstitution in the body and inflammation of the vitreous body. Objective The aim of the study was to show the incidence of IRV in patients treated with HAART. Method A retrospective study was conducted in patients who suffered from CMV retinitis. Twenty-one were treated with HAART and had the diagnosis of CMV retinitis, as well. All of them were examined by the same ophthalmologist who peformed slit lamp examination with mydriasis and indirect ophthalmoscopy. Results Nine of 21 patients developed IRV as a complication of HAART, two had cystoid macular edema (CMO. Conclusion CMV retinitis develops when the number of CD4+ T lymphocytes drops below 50/mm3. This results in necrotic retinitis which, if untreated, leads to complete loss of vision. With the introduction of HAART, we learned that the reconstitution of immune status was achieved as well as life expectancy, but there was a dramatic decline in the opportunistic infection, including CMV retinitis, as well. With the immune reconstitution, the inflammation develops in the eye, known as IRV. Sometimes, it is necessary to treat this condition, but in the case of our patients, the inflammation was mild, and no treatment was necessary.

  19. Loading-rate-independent delay of catastrophic avalanches in a bulk metallic glass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. H.; Chan, K. C.; Wang, G.; Wu, F. F.; Xia, L.; Ren, J. L.; Li, J.; Dahmen, K. A.; Liaw, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The plastic flow of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is characterized by intermittent bursts of avalanches, and this trend results in disastrous failures of BMGs. In the present work, a double-side-notched BMG specimen is designed, which exhibits chaotic plastic flows consisting of several catastrophic avalanches under the applied loading. The disastrous shear avalanches have, then, been delayed by forming a stable plastic-flow stage in the specimens with tailored distances between the bottoms of the notches, where the distribution of a complex stress field is acquired. Differing from the conventional compressive testing results, such a delaying process is independent of loading rate. The statistical analysis shows that in the specimens with delayed catastrophic failures, the plastic flow can evolve to a critical dynamics, making the catastrophic failure more predictable than the ones with chaotic plastic flows. The findings are of significance in understanding the plastic-flow mechanisms in BMGs and controlling the avalanches in relating solids.

  20. Evaluation of the propensity for coal spontaneous combustion based on catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yu-tao; ZHANG Xi-chen; TIEN Jerry C; LI Ya-qing

    2011-01-01

    Generally,different prevention measures should be taken according to spontaneous combustion propensities.The current methods to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion,such as chromatographic method of oxygen adsorption,oxidation kinetics method and activation energy method,are mostly affected by human factors.Their boundaries among different classes of propensities were all established by subjective judgments.A new evaluation method using catastrophe theory is introduced.This method can accurately depict the process of coal spontaneous combustion and the evaluation index,"catastrophe temperature",be obtained based on the model.In terms of catastrophe temperature,the spontaneous combustion propensity of different coals can be sequenced.Experimental data indicate that this method is appropriate to describe the spontaneous combustion process and to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion.

  1. CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-xia; WAN Zhong-juan; YU Shao-peng; LUO Xin-zheng; SUN Guang-you

    2004-01-01

    Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thom Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.

  2. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY CATASTROPHIC (CAT) LEAVE DONATION PROGRAM: DEMOGRAPHICS, ECONOMIC SECURITY, AND SOCIAL EQUITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Christina

    2015-01-01

    The California State University (CSU) Chancellor's Office reached an agreement with all CSU collective bargaining units and Employee Relations on a uniform Catastrophic (CAT) Leave Donation Program in 1992. The CAT Leave Donation Program allows employees to donate sick and/or vacation leave credits to employees who are incapacitated due to a catastrophic illness or injury and have exhausted all of their own leave credits. This also extends to employees with whom family illnesses are deemed catastrophic, thus requiring the employee to care for an immediate family member. Stakeholders include union represented employees who accrue leave credits as well as any employee who receives or donates hours of leave credits in the program. Other stakeholders include the family members and program administrators. PMID:26369237

  3. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  4. 36-Year-Old Female with Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Treated with Eculizumab: A Case Report and Review of Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Strakhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare but potentially life-threatening condition characterized by diffuse vascular thrombosis, leading to multiple organ failure developing over a short period of time in the presence of positive antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL. CAPS is a severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, developing in about 1% of cases of classic antiphospholipid syndrome, manifesting as microangiopathy, affecting small vessels of multiple organs. It is acute in onset, with majority of cases developing thrombocytopenia and less frequently hemolytic anemia and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Lupus anticoagulant and anticardiolipin antibodies have been reported as predominant antibodies associated with CAPS. Treatment options often utilized in CAPS include anticoagulation, steroids, plasma exchange, cyclophosphamide therapy, and intravenous immunoglobulin therapy. Even though the reported incidence of this condition is considered to be low, the mortality rate is approaching 50%. The high rate of mortality should warrant greater awareness among clinicians for timely diagnosis and treatment of this life-threatening condition. Studies have shown that complement activation plays a key role in the pathogenesis of aPL mediated thrombosis in CAPS. We report a case of a 36-year-old female admitted with clinical and laboratory findings consistent with CAPS successfully treated with eculizumab, a terminal complement inhibitor.

  5. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  6. Chronicle of a death foretold: a case of catastrophic vascular Behcet's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Elitzur, Yair; Korach, Amit; Hiller, Nurith; Chajek-Shaul, Tova

    2007-03-01

    A 20-year-old man with Behcet's disease characterized by recurrent arterial aneurysms presented with a new aortic root aneurysm. This patient previously had aneurysms of the coronary arteries and vein, as well as ruptured renal artery aneurysm. Chronic maintenance immunosuppressive therapy was recommended due to the catastrophic nature of the disease, which the patient refused to take. The patient died shortly after admission. This case demonstrates the unique catastrophic natural history of vascular Behcet's disease with recurrent life-threatening arterial events, and this case stresses the therapeutic dilemma of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy in selected patients. PMID:16767354

  7. Catastrophes and Conservation: Lessons from Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estes J.A.

    1992-02-01

    Full Text Available The Exxon Valdez spill is broadly perceived as an environmental catastrophe. However, expected catastrophic declines in the region's sea otter population cannot be demonstrated, not because they didn't occur but because the necessary information is lacking. Furthermore, efforts to rehabilitate oiled sea otters following the spill were extremely expensive and ineffective. Some improvements are possible with better planning. However, post-spill capture and rehabilitation probably can not be used to substantially reduce sea otter losses from future spills, and the use of such measures to conserve populations is unrealistic.

  8. Requiem for analytical psychology: a reflection on Jung's (anti)catastrophic psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Marco Heleno

    2014-02-01

    This article is an interpretation of analytical psychology in the light of the catastrophic vision and dreams that Jung had in 1913 and 1914. It is shown how the guiding spirit of Jung's psychological project is to be found in that psychic material. Then it is proposed that the completion of the symbolic catastrophe displayed in Jung's last vision (1961) points to the end of the psychological foundations upon which analytical psychology is built, and thus to its cultural obsolescence, extensive to any psychology grounded in Jung's notion of 'soul'. PMID:24467353

  9. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  10. Roll stability catastrophe mechanism of a flooded ship on regular sea waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurcation set equation, splitting factor ‘u’ and regular factor ‘v’, where both ‘u’ and ‘v’ are further expressed with typical flooded ship parameters. Then, the roll catastrophe mechanism is analyzed mainly by means ‘u’, under the given parameters of a typical trawler boat. The aim of this research is to reveal the mutagenic mechanism of the roll stability and provide a reference for improving ship roll stability. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  11. Requiem for analytical psychology: a reflection on Jung's (anti)catastrophic psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Marco Heleno

    2014-02-01

    This article is an interpretation of analytical psychology in the light of the catastrophic vision and dreams that Jung had in 1913 and 1914. It is shown how the guiding spirit of Jung's psychological project is to be found in that psychic material. Then it is proposed that the completion of the symbolic catastrophe displayed in Jung's last vision (1961) points to the end of the psychological foundations upon which analytical psychology is built, and thus to its cultural obsolescence, extensive to any psychology grounded in Jung's notion of 'soul'.

  12. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  13. Model and algorithm for optimization of rescue center location of emergent catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ding-wei; ZHANG Guo-xiang

    2006-01-01

    The location of rescue centers is a key problem in optimal resource allocation and logistics in emergency response.We propose a mathematical model for rescue center location with the considerations of emergency occurrence probability,catastrophe diffusion function and rescue function.Because the catastrophe diffusion and rescue functions are both nonlinear and time-variable,it cannot be solved by common mathematical programming methods.We develop a heuristic embedded genetic algorithm for the special model solution.The computation based on a large number of examples with practical data has shown us satisfactory results.

  14. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

    2010-04-23

    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  15. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain. PMID:26713422

  16. Cancer incidence among firefighters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukkala, Eero; Martinsen, Jan Ivar; Weiderpass, Elisabete;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Firefighters are potentially exposed to a wide range of known and suspected carcinogens through their work. The objectives of this study were to examine the patterns of cancer among Nordic firefighters, and to compare them with the results from previous studies. METHODS: Data for this......OBJECTIVES: Firefighters are potentially exposed to a wide range of known and suspected carcinogens through their work. The objectives of this study were to examine the patterns of cancer among Nordic firefighters, and to compare them with the results from previous studies. METHODS: Data...... for this study were drawn from a linkage between the census data for 15 million people from the five Nordic countries and their cancer registries for the period 1961-2005. SIR analyses were conducted with the cancer incidence rates for the entire national study populations used as reference rates. RESULTS......: A total of 16 422 male firefighters were included in the final cohort. A moderate excess risk was seen for all cancer sites combined, (SIR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11). There were statistically significant excesses in the age category of 30-49 years in prostate cancer (SIR=2.59, 95% CI 1.34 to 4...

  17. Delay Adjusted Incidence Infographic

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Infographic shows the National Cancer Institute SEER Incidence Trends. The graphs show the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) 2002-2011. For Men, Thyroid: 5.3*,Liver & IBD: 3.6*, Melanoma: 2.3*, Kidney: 2.0*, Myeloma: 1.9*, Pancreas: 1.2*, Leukemia: 0.9*, Oral Cavity: 0.5, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: 0.3*, Esophagus: -0.1, Brain & ONS: -0.2*, Bladder: -0.6*, All Sites: -1.1*, Stomach: -1.7*, Larynx: -1.9*, Prostate: -2.1*, Lung & Bronchus: -2.4*, and Colon & Rectum: -3/0*. For Women, Thyroid: 5.8*, Liver & IBD: 2.9*, Myeloma: 1.8*, Kidney: 1.6*, Melanoma: 1.5, Corpus & Uterus: 1.3*, Pancreas: 1.1*, Leukemia: 0.6*, Brain & ONS: 0, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: -0.1, All Sites: -0.1, Breast: -0.3, Stomach: -0.7*, Oral Cavity: -0.7*, Bladder: -0.9*, Ovary: -0.9*, Lung & Bronchus: -1.0*, Cervix: -2.4*, and Colon & Rectum: -2.7*. * AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<.05). Rates were adjusted for reporting delay in the registry. www.cancer.gov Source: Special section of the Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2011.

  18. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  19. Advanced space recovery systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wailes, William K.

    1989-01-01

    The design evolution of a space recovery system designed by a NASA-contracted study is described, with particular attention given to the design of a recovery system for a propulsion/avionics module (P/AM), which weighs 60,000 lb at the recovery initiation and achieves subsonic terminal descent at or above 50,000 ft msl. The components of the recovery system concept are described together with the operational sequences of the recovery. The recovery system concept offers low cost, low weight, good performance, a potential for pinpoint landing, and an operational flexibility.

  20. Sudden cardiac death in adults: causes, incidence and interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Wendy Marina

    Many nurses will be familiar with the unexpected death of an adult patient following a sudden, life-threatening cardiac event. It is a situation that demands sensitive nursing care and skilled interventions to provide a foundation for recovery and promote healthy bereavement. This article examines the causes and incidence of sudden cardiac death in adults. Possible reactions of those who are suddenly bereaved are described and immediate care interventions aimed at dealing with the grief process are discussed. The article concludes by identifying ways in which the incidence of sudden cardiac death may be reduced.

  1. Human factors analyses of nuclear power plant incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human action plays vital role in occurrence and progression of many nuclear power plant incidents such as occurred in TMI-2 and Chernobyl reactors. Therefore, it is essential for ensuring safety of nuclear facilities to prevent occurrence of human error and to take proper recovery action if it occurs. It is necessary to have deep understanding of causes and mechanism of human error. For this purpose, we analysed operators behavior in seven U.S. nuclear power plant incidents from the view point of human factors. (author)

  2. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the techniqu

  3. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  4. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  5. Methodological aspects of health evaluation of the population suffered after the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecological situation in Belarus and the necessity of liquidation of medical consequences of the Chernobyl NPP Catastrophe demand many years' dynamic observation after the health condition of large people's contingents. At present this problem is being solved by the clinical follow up of the population undergone irradiation due to the Chernobyl catastrophe which is the basis of medical-prevention measures, directed to low medical consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe. All the information on population's health received during the clinical follow up is put to a special State Data Base which was started for a clinical follow op information support, carrying out scientific researches and receiving reliable data on medical- biological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe. At present there's a problem of correct evaluation of health changes of the population who need clinical follow up on all its levels. The problem of comparative analyses of stored data hasn't been solved yet. It's necessary to underline that illness data of the population suffered after the Chernobyl catastrophe received due to intensive clinical follow up can't be compared with illness data of the population in general received due to ordinary applies to hospitals. It would be methodologically incorrect. Besides all said above, including into the research all the classes and forms of illnesses according to IDC-9, IDC-10 (International Disease Classification 9,10) what in a great degree enlarges volume of the research and its expenses is irrational. While studying the Chernobyl catastrophe medical consequences one must include to the analysis classes and nosologic illness forms which level and dynamic changes connected in some extend to radiation irradiation. By doing this one can minimize the volume and the expenses in the research like this. In this situation it's necessary to state such population health indexes which level exposed to a distortion in the lowest degree in the result of

  6. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    -event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...

  7. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht;

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  8. Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia

    1988-01-01

    Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…

  9. Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Porter, Catherine; White, Emily

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consu...

  10. Pain Catastrophizing is Associated with Dental Pain in a Stressful Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C.-S.; Niddam, D.M.; Hsu, M.-L.; Hsieh, J.-C.

    2013-01-01

    Pain is associated with anxiety in a dental setting. It has remained unclear how cognitive-affective factors modulate pain and anxiety in a stressful context, such as receiving dental procedures. We hypothesized that both the situational factor (unpredictability about painful stimuli) and the trait factor (pain catastrophizing, i.e., the tendency to interpret pain in negative orientation) account for dental pain. Fifteen healthy participants were recruited to perform an associative learning task. They were asked to learn the pairing between visual cues and the intensity of incoming painful stimuli delivered at the right upper central incisor. Brain activation associated with pain was recorded by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants reported increased anxiety and pain in the stressful context, where stimuli intensity was not predicted by the preceding cue. The score of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was positively correlated with the increased pain modulated by unpredictability. Brain activation at the right posterior hippocampus, a region critically related to associative learning of aversive stimuli and context, was correlated with the individual catastrophizing level. Our findings suggest that both the situational factor (unpredictability) and the trait factor (catastrophizing) influence dental pain, highlighting the role of cognitive-affective factors in pain control of dental patients. PMID:23232145

  11. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  12. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  13. Explaining health care utilization for panic attacks using cusp catastrophe modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katerndahl, David

    2008-10-01

    Despite increased health care utilization, patients with panic disorder continue to report unmet needs. The objective was to compare the fit of linear and Cusp Catastrophe Modeling in explaining changes in utilization of emergency, general and mental health settings, and self-treatments for panic symptoms. This community-based study surveyed 97 subjects with panic attacks drawn from a sample of randomly-selected adults from randomly-selected households. The stressor (splitting) variable used was Phobic Anxiety while predisposing variables included Family Health Care Utilization, Perceived Life Threat and Need For Treatment, and Treatment Experience. Outcomes consisted of the number of sites and self-treatments used for panic symptoms when first seeking care and during the 2 months prior to survey. Use of mental health sites and self-treatments demonstrated superior modeling with cusp catastrophe approaches using treatment experience as the predisposing variable, accounting for 47% and 38% of variances respectively, improving the fit by over 20% compared to the best linear models in both cases. Cusp catastrophe modeling accounted for more variance than all linear models when describing use of mental health settings and self-treatments. Cusp catastrophe may explain bimodal distributions in behavior, delays in behavior change, and sudden shifts in behavior in stressful situations. PMID:18765074

  14. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau-Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both.

  15. Spatial ecology of peatland ecosystems: Spatial self-organization and catastrophic shifts in bogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppinga, M.B.

    2004-01-01

    Positive feedback interactions, as between plants and their abiotic environment, may have the consequence that an ecosystem has alternate stable equilibrium states. As a result, a gradual change in environmental conditions may lead to discontinuous, catastrophic shifts in such ecosystems. Until now,

  16. SOIL CONTAMINATION CAUSED BY EMERGENCY BIO-REDUCTION OF CATASTROPHIC LIVESTOCK MORTALITIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catastrophic regional losses of poultry and livestock have caused environmental officials in North America to seek emergency on-farm disposal alternatives that pose less pollution risk to soil and shallow groundwater than burial. Bio-decomposition of remains followed by land application of the resul...

  17. 78 FR 46256 - Security Program, Report of Suspected Crimes, Suspicious Transactions, Catastrophic Acts and Bank...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 748 Security Program, Report of Suspected Crimes, Suspicious Transactions, Catastrophic Acts and Bank Secrecy Act Compliance CFR Correction In Title 12 of the Code of Federal...

  18. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 749 - Catastrophic Act Preparedness Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... program address the following five elements: 1 See 12 CFR 748.1(b) concerning a FICU's reporting of any catastrophic act that occurs at its office to its regional director and 12 CFR 749.3 concerning the location of... addressed in 12 CFR 748.1(b); vi. Training and documentation of training to ensure all employees...

  19. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  20. THE NONLINEAR CUSP-CATASTROPHE MODEL OF THE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In the catastrophe theory of nonlinear science,the intensity of water-flow and the coefficient of non-uniformsediment m are regarded as two bound variables, and the in-tensity of bed-load transport Φ as the state variable in the mo-tion of non-uniform sediment in cusp-catastrophe model.Based on the standard equation of the cusp-catastrophe theo-ry, the relation equation between the intensity of bed-loadtransport Φ and the intensity of water-flow has been derivedby used coordinate transform and topology transform. The e-quation of bed load transport rate was built on the cusp-catas-trophe theory of nonlinear science. The others are applied toverify this equation, that the results calculated by the cusp-ca-tastrophe equation agree well with the other equations. Thisindicates that the cusp-catastrophe equation is reasonable, and the results fully reflect the characteristics of threshold motionand transport of non-uniform sediment. The purpose of thispaper is to explore the incipient motion and transport laws ofnon-uniform sediment from the viewpoint of nonlinear science.

  1. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  2. 灾难性医疗支出研究%Study on Catastrophic Health Expenditure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    褚福灵

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic heath expenditure occurs when the total out-of-pocket health payments are ≥40%of the household’s capacity to pay(non-living expenses). Studies have showed that the highest rate of catastrophic payments was 13%% in the world, and there were about 5% of poverty caused by serious illness. We should calculate the rate of catastrophic payment and poverty due to illness by using normative methods, and adopt comprehensive measures to prevent the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditure.%家庭的医疗费用支出等于或超过家庭支付能力(非生存支出)的40%时,该家庭即发生了灾难性医疗支出。世界范围内,家庭灾难性医疗支出发生率最高为13%,因病致贫发生率最高为5%。应采用规范的方法测算灾难性医疗支出发生率与因病致贫率,并采取综合措施防范灾难性医疗风险的发生。

  3. Pedagogy in Catastrophic Times: Giroux and the Tasks of Critical Public Intellectuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Doug

    2012-01-01

    This article reflects on Henry Giroux's work as a critical public intellectual and the important role his work plays in fostering educated hope and insurgent possibilities during our present times of daily and longer term catastrophes. In addition to attempting to capture the experience of what it means and how it feels to read Giroux along with…

  4. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and cata

  5. Spectral signatures of compact sources in the inverse Compton catastrophe limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulou, M.; Piran, T.; Mastichiadis, A.

    2015-09-01

    The inverse Compton catastrophe is defined as a dramatic rise in the luminosity of inverse Compton scattered photons. It is described by a non-linear loop of radiative processes that sets in for high values of the electron compactness and is responsible for the efficient transfer of energy from electrons to photons, predominantly through inverse Compton scatterings. We search for the conditions that drive a magnetized non-thermal source to the inverse Compton catastrophe regime and study its multiwavelength (MW) photon spectrum. We develop a generic analytical framework and use numerical calculations as a backup to the analytical predictions. We find that the escaping radiation from a source in the Compton catastrophe regime bears some unique features. The MW photon spectrum is a broken power law with a break at ˜mec2 due to the onset of the Klein-Nishina suppression. The spectral index below the break energy depends on the electron and magnetic compactnesses logarithmically, while it is independent of the electron power-law index (s). The maximum radiating power emerges typically in the γ-ray regime, at energies ˜mec2 (˜γmax mec2) for s > 2 (s ≲ 2), where γmax is the maximum Lorentz factor of the injected electron distribution. We apply the principles of the inverse Compton catastrophe to blazars and γ-ray bursts using the analytical framework we developed, and show how these can be used to impose robust constraints on the source parameters.

  6. Biomechanics of subdural hemorrhage in American football: review of the literature in response to rise in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Jonathan A; Zuckerman, Scott; Abla, Adib A; Mocco, J; Bode, Ken; Eads, Todd

    2014-02-01

    The number of catastrophic head injuries recorded during the 2011 football season was the highest since data collection began in 1984--the vast majority of these cases were secondary to subdural hemorrhage (SDH). The incidence of catastrophic head injury continues to rise: the average yearly incidence from 2008 to 2012 was 238% that of the average yearly incidence from 1998 to 2002. Greater than 95% of the football players who suffered catastrophic head injury during this period were age 18 or younger. Currently, the helmet industry utilizes a standard based on data obtained at Wayne State University approximately 50 years ago that seeks to limit severity index--a surrogate marker of translational acceleration. In this manuscript, we utilize a focused review of the literature to better characterize the biomechanical factors associated with SDH following collisions in American football and discuss these data in the context of current helmet standard. Review of the literature indicates the rotational acceleration (RA) threshold above which the risk of SDH becomes appreciable is approximately 5,000 rad/s(2). This value is not infrequently surmounted in typical high school football games. In contrast, translational accelerations (TAs) experienced during even elite-level impacts in football are not of sufficient magnitude to result in SDH. This information raises important questions about the current helmet standard--in which the sole objective is limitation of TA. Further studies will be necessary to better define whether helmet constructs and quality assurance standards designed to limit RA will also help to decrease the risk of catastrophic head injury in American football.

  7. Catastrophic injury in rugby union: is the level of risk acceptable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Colin W

    2008-01-01

    Rugby union is a full contact sport with a relatively high overall risk of injury and a small specific risk of fatal and catastrophic spinal injury. Although catastrophic injuries in rugby union cause public concern and generate strong emotive reactions, the magnitude of society's concern about this type of injury is often dominated by people's perceptions rather than by actual levels of risk. This article assesses published values for the risk of catastrophic injuries in rugby union, evaluates these against the risk standards of the UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and compares the values with the risks associated with other common sport and non-sport activities. The assessment showed that the risks of sustaining a catastrophic injury in rugby union in England (0.8/100,000 per year), Ireland (0.9/100,000 per year) and Argentina (1.9/100,000 per year) were within the HSE's 'acceptable' region of risk (0.1-2/100,000 per year), whilst the risks in New Zealand (4.2/100,000 per year), Australia (4.4/100,000 per year) and Fiji (13/100,000 per year) were within the 'tolerable' region of risk (2-100/100,000 per year). The risk of sustaining a catastrophic injury in rugby union was generally lower than or comparable with the levels reported for a wide range of other collision sports, such as ice hockey (4/100,000 per year), rugby league (2/100,000 per year) and American Football (2/100,000 per year). In addition, the risk of catastrophic injury in rugby union was comparable with that experienced by most people in work-based situations and lower than that experienced by motorcyclists, pedestrians and car occupants. Whilst ranking risks provides an effective way of assessing their acceptability, it is recognized that representing risks by a single risk value can be misleading, as account must also be taken of the public's perception of the risks and the inherent differences in the types of risk being considered. However, an acceptable level of risk is often regarded as

  8. EPA Recovery Mapper

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The EPA Recovery Mapper is an Internet interactive mapping application that allows users to discover information about every American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

  9. TB-HIV co-infection: a catastrophic comradeship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narendran, G; Swaminathan, S

    2016-04-01

    The symbiotic association of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV poses a challenge to human survival. HIV complicates every aspect of TB including presentation, diagnosis and treatment. HIV-TB patients encounter unique problems like drug-drug interactions, cumulative toxicity, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), lower plasma drug levels and emergence of drug resistance during treatment despite adherence. TB may also be overdiagnosed in HIV due to a number of diseases that closely resemble TB. Notable among them are non-tuberculous mycobacteria, Pneumocystis Jirovecii and Nocardia. Even though diagnostic procedures have improved over the years, patients in developing countries usually seek health care at later stage of the disease. Research data ascertains the duration of therapy for TB to be 6 months with rifampicin and isoniazid, reinforced with ethambutol and pyrazinamide in the first 2 months. The schedule of therapy is still debatable with daily regimens being preferred in the context of HIV. Many reasons exist for persistence of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (M.TB) in sputum, or delayed-clearance of TB from sputum smears in HIV, apart from emergence of drug resistance and non-compliance. Acquired rifampicin resistance (ARR) is a unique phenomenon complicating HIV-associated TB when an intermittent regimen of antituberculosis therapy (ATT) is used without timely initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), especially in patients harbouring isoniazid-resistant strains Immune restoration is often incomplete ('swiss cheese' pattern) even with effective HAART if not started early. Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is the paradoxical worsening of the patient's condition often with radiological deterioration, due to an enhanced immune response with HAART. IRIS occurs despite an effective virological suppression and a favourable response to ATT. The incidence of IRIS in HIV has reached up to 54%, requiring utilization of experts

  10. Assessment of Flood Catastrophe Risk for Grain Production at the Provincial Scale in China Based on the BMM Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Lei; ZHANG Qiao; ZHOU Ai-lian; HUO Ran

    2013-01-01

    Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change, and meanwhile, it is an urgent scientiifc issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. This paper developed the methodology of lfood catastrophe risk assessment, which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) iftting, and risk evaluation. Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation. Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufifciency of crop loss data. Block maxima model (BMM) approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) of lfood catastrophe loss, and then lfood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated. The Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling lfood catastrophe risk for grain production. The impact of lfood catastrophe to grain production in China was signiifcantly serious, and high or very high risk of lfood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century lfood disaster, for majority of the major-producing provinces, the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%. Especially, the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99, 99.86, 99.69, and 91.60% respectively in Anhui, Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang. Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about lfood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of lfood catastrophe.

  11. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Sampson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and re-insurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge corrected rainfall radar, meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim and a satellite rainfall product (CMORPH. Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find these loss estimates to be highly sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving observational datasets, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

  12. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  13. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund M Hart

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp. as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our

  14. Mitigation of Earthquake-Induced Catastrophic Landslide Hazard on Gentle Slopes by Surface Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trandafir, A. C.; Sidle, R. C.; Kamai, T.

    2005-05-01

    Catastrophic landslides have occurred repeatedly on gentle slopes during past earthquakes in Japan, sometimes causing great loss of life and significant environmental damage. Reconnaissance reports on the October 23, 2004, Chuetsu earthquake in Niigata Prefecture, Japan, also include collapse of gentle slopes associated with damage to roads and railways which lost foundation support. Additionally, investigations of the spatial distribution and features of landslides triggered by the Chuetsu earthquake revealed that 23% of the landslides mapped within a 2.9 km radius around the major earthquake epicenter occurred on slopes with gradients between 10 and 20 degrees. Past experience demonstrated that such earthquake-induced catastrophic landslides occurred along shear surfaces in saturated cohesionless materials, and the main factor controlling the high mobility of the slide mass after failure was the gradual loss in shear strength with progressive shear displacement. Given the high rainfall prior the earthquake, it is likely that the same failure mechanism characterizes the catastrophic landslides triggered on gentle slopes during the October 23, 2004, Chuetsu event in Niigata Prefecture. Thus, we introduce a procedure based on application of an additional confining stress to the surface to increase the stability of gentle slopes in saturated cohesionless soils subject to catastrophic failure during earthquakes. This surface pressure is achieved by concrete plates tied back with prestressed steel anchors which penetrate through the soil well below the potential sliding surface. Results of a dynamic analysis of undrained seismic performance conducted for a gentle infinite slope that experienced different levels of increase in effective confining stress due to a uniform load applied normal to the surface, illustrate the effectiveness of this measure in mitigating the earthquake-induced catastrophic landslide hazards.

  15. Fragment shapes in impact experiments ranging from cratering to catastrophic disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikami, Tatsuhiro; Hagermann, Axel; Kadokawa, Tokiyuki; Yoshida, Akifumi; Shimada, Akira; Hasegawa, Sunao; Tsuchiyama, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Laboratory impact experiments have found that impact fragments tend to be elongated. Their shapes, as defined by axes a, b and c, these being the maximum dimensions of the fragment in three mutually orthogonal planes (a ⩾ b ⩾ c), are distributed around mean values of the axial ratios b/a ∼ 0.7 and c/a ∼ 0.5. This corresponds to a:b:c in the simple proportion 2:√2:1. The shape distributions of some boulders on Asteroid Eros, the small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter <200 m and rotation period <1 h), and asteroids in young families, are similar to those of laboratory fragments created in catastrophic disruptions. Catastrophic disruption is, however, a process that is different from impact cratering. In order to systematically investigate the shapes of fragments in the range from impact cratering to catastrophic disruption, impact experiments for basalt targets 5-15 cm in size were performed. A total of 28 impact experiments were carried out by firing a spherical nylon projectile (diameter 7.14 mm) perpendicularly into the target surface at velocities of 1.60-7.13 km/s. More than 12,700 fragments with b ⩾ 4 mm generated in the impact experiments were measured. We found that the mean value of c/a in each impact decreases with decreasing impact energy per unit target mass. For instance, the mean value of c/a in an impact cratering event is nearly 0.2, which is considerably smaller than c/a in a catastrophic disruption (∼0.5). The data presented here can provide important evidence to interpret the shapes of asteroids and boulders on asteroid surfaces, and can constrain current interpretations of asteroid formation. As an example, by applying our experimental results to the boulder shapes on Asteroid Itokawa's surface, we can infer that Itokawa's parent body must have experienced a catastrophic disruption.

  16. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  17. Recovery from mental illness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kirsten Schultz; Friis, Vivi Soegaard; Haxholm, Birthe Lodahl;

    2015-01-01

    Mental health services strive to implement a recovery-oriented approach to rehabilitation. Little is known about service users' perception of the recovery approach. The aim is to explore the service user's perspectives on facilitators and barriers associated with recovery. Twelve residents living...

  18. Incident reporting in general practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwart, D.L.M.

    2011-01-01

    Background and aim An incident reporting procedure (IRP) is an important part of patient safety management in healthcare. Currently, patient safety efforts are mainly guided by the ‘systems approach’: incidents, defined as ‘unintended or unexpected events which could have led or did lead to harm for

  19. True incidence of vestibular schwannoma?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stangerup, Sven-Eric; Tos, Mirko; Thomsen, Jens;

    2010-01-01

    The incidence of diagnosed sporadic unilateral vestibular schwannomas (VS) has increased, due primarily to more widespread access to magnetic resonance imaging.......The incidence of diagnosed sporadic unilateral vestibular schwannomas (VS) has increased, due primarily to more widespread access to magnetic resonance imaging....

  20. Cardiovascular disease incidence and survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byberg, Stine; Agyemang, Charles; Zwisler, Ann Dorthe;

    2016-01-01

    Studies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and survival show varying results between different ethnic groups. Our aim was to add a new dimension by exploring the role of migrant status in combination with ethnic background on incidence of-and survival from-CVD and more specifically acute...... and differences in incidence were assessed by Poisson regression and stratified by sex. Survival differences were assessed by Cox regression using all-cause and cause-specific mortality as outcome. Male refugees had significantly lower incidence of CVD (RR = 0.89; 95 % CI 0.85-0.93) and stroke (IRR = 0.62; 95...... significantly lower incidence of CVD, AMI and stroke. All-cause and cause-specific survival after CVD, AMI and stroke was similar or significantly better for migrants compared to Danish-born, regardless of type of migrant (refugee vs. family-reunified) or country of origin. Refugees are disadvantaged in terms...

  1. Chernobyl record. The definitive history of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mould, R.F

    2000-07-01

    The contents of Chernobyl Record have taken 14 years to compile and this period of time was necessary to enable information to be released from Soviet sources, measurements to be made in the environment, for estimation of radiation doses and for follow-up of the health of population groups which had been exposed. This time frame also includes the 10th anniversary conferences and the completion of joint projects of the European Commission, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation. It has also enabled me to visit the power plant site, Chernobyl town and Pripyat relatively soon after the accident and also some 10 years later: December 1987 and June 1998. Without such visits some of the photographs in this Record could not have been obtained. Information is also contained in these pages of comparisons of various aspects of the Chernobyl accident with data from the Three Mile Island accident in the USA in 1979, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, the highly contaminated Techa river area in the Urals in Russia and the accident in Tokaimura, Japan in 1999. The first two chapters are introductory in that they describe terminology which is necessary for an understanding of the remaining chapters. Chapters 3-6 describes the early events: including those leading up to the explosion and then what followed in the immediate aftermath. Chapters 7-8 describe the Sarcophagus and the past and future of nuclear power for electricity generation, including the future of the Chernobyl power station. Chapters 9-11 consider the radiation doses received by various populations, including liquidators, evacuees and those living on contaminated territories: and the contamination of milk by {sup 131}I, and the contamination of other parts of the food chain by {sup 137}Cs. Chapters 12-14 describe the environmental impact of the accident, as does chapter 11. Chapters 15-18 detail the long-term effects on health, including not only the incidence of cancer, but also of non

  2. Do firms with unique competencies for rescuing victims of human catastrophes have special obligations? Corporate responsibility and the AIDS catastrophe in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunfee, Thomas W

    2006-04-01

    Firms possessing a unique competency to rescue the victims of a human catastrophe have a minimum moral obligation to devote substantial resources toward best efforts to aid victims. The minimum amount that firms should devote to rescue is the largest sum of their most recent year's investment in social initiatives, their five-year trend, their industry's average, or the national average. Financial exigency may justify a lower level of investment. Alternative social investments may be continued if they have an equally compelling rationale. These duties apply to the global pharmaceutical companies in the context of the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:17162832

  3. Battleground Energy Recovery Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bullock, Daniel [USDOE Gulf Coast Clean Energy Application Center, Woodlands, TX (United States)

    2011-12-31

    In October 2009, the project partners began a 36-month effort to develop an innovative, commercial-scale demonstration project incorporating state-of-the-art waste heat recovery technology at Clean Harbors, Inc., a large hazardous waste incinerator site located in Deer Park, Texas. With financial support provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Battleground Energy Recovery Project was launched to advance waste heat recovery solutions into the hazardous waste incineration market, an area that has seen little adoption of heat recovery in the United States. The goal of the project was to accelerate the use of energy-efficient, waste heat recovery technology as an alternative means to produce steam for industrial processes. The project had three main engineering and business objectives: Prove Feasibility of Waste Heat Recovery Technology at a Hazardous Waste Incinerator Complex; Provide Low-cost Steam to a Major Polypropylene Plant Using Waste Heat; and Create a Showcase Waste Heat Recovery Demonstration Project.

  4. Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

    2009-01-01

    As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

  5. Depressive symptoms and pain evaluations among persons with chronic pain: catastrophizing, but not pain acceptance, shows significant effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Elizabeth J; Ness, Timothy J; Doleys, Daniel M; Baños, James H; Cianfrini, Leanne; Richards, J Scott

    2009-12-15

    Cognitive factors such as catastrophic thoughts regarding pain, and conversely, one's acceptance of that pain, may affect emotional functioning among persons with chronic pain conditions. The aims of the present study were to examine the effects of both catastrophizing and acceptance on affective ratings of experimentally induced ischemic pain and also self-reports of depressive symptoms. Sixty-seven individuals with chronic back pain completed self-report measures of catastrophizing, acceptance, and depressive symptoms. In addition, participants underwent an ischemic pain induction procedure and were asked to rate the induced pain. Catastrophizing showed significant effects on sensory and intensity but not affective ratings of the induced pain. Acceptance did not show any significant associations, when catastrophizing was also in the model, with any form of ratings of the induced pain. Catastrophizing, but not acceptance, was also significantly associated with self-reported depressive symptoms when these two variables were both included in a regression model. Overall, results indicate negative thought patterns such as catastrophizing appear to be more closely related to outcomes of perceived pain severity and affect in persons with chronic pain exposed to an experimental laboratory pain stimulus than does more positive patterns as reflected in measures of acceptance.

  6. Catastrophic Health Care Expenditure among Older People with Chronic Diseases in 15 European Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenijevic, Jelena; Pavlova, Milena; Rechel, Bernd; Groot, Wim

    2016-01-01

    Introduction It is well-known that the prevalence of chronic diseases is high among older people, especially those who are poor. Moreover, chronic diseases can result in catastrophic health expenditure. The relationship between chronic diseases and their financial burden on households is thus double-sided, as financial difficulties can give rise to, and result from, chronic diseases. Our aim was to examine the levels of catastrophic health expenditure imposed by private out-of-pocket payments among older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases and cancer in 15 European countries. Methods The SHARE dataset for individuals aged 50+ and their households, collected in 2010–2012 was used. The total number of participants included in this study was N = 51,661. The sample consisted of 43.8% male and 56.2% female participants. The average age was 67 years. We applied an instrumental variable approach for binary instrumented variables known as a treatment-effect model. Results We found that being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases was associated with catastrophic health expenditure among older people even in comparatively wealthy countries with developed risk-pooling mechanisms. When compared to the Netherlands (the country with the lowest share of out-of-pocket payments as a percentage of total health expenditure in our study), older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in Portugal, Poland, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Hungary were more likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. Similar results were observed for diagnosed cardiovascular diseases. In contrast, cancer was not associated with catastrophic health expenditure. Discussion Our study shows that older people with diagnosed chronic diseases face catastrophic health expenditure even in some of the wealthiest countries in Europe. The effect differs across chronic diseases and countries. This may be due to different socio

  7. Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p ...) and the incidence rate of nosocomial bacteremia decreased by 28.9% from 82.2 to 56.0 (4.2% annually, p

  8. Catastrophic disruption of asteriods and satellites; Proceedings of the International Workshop, Pisa, Italy, July 30-August 2, 1985

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, D. R. (Editor); Farinella, P. (Editor); Paolicchi, P. (Editor); Zappala, V. (Editor)

    1986-01-01

    Theoretical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the violent disruption of asteroids or planetary satellites are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics examined include acceleration techniques and results of experiments simulating catastrophic fragmentation events; laboratory simulations of catastrophic impact; scaling laws for the catastrophic collisions of asteroids; asteroid collisional history, the origin of the Hirayama families, and disruption of small satellites; and the implications of the inferred compositions of a steroids for their collisional evolution. Diagrams, graphs, tables, and a summary of the discussion at the workshop are provided.

  9. Catastrophic health expenditure: a comparative analysis of empty-nest and non-empty-nest households with seniors in Shandong, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tingting; Chu, Jie; Zhou, Chengchao; Medina, Alexis; Li, Cuicui; Jiang, Shan; Zheng, Wengui; Sun, Liyuan; Liu, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to compare the catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) prevalence and its determinants between empty-nest and non-empty-nest elderly households. Setting Shandong province of China. Participants A total of 2761 elderly households are included in the analysis. Results CHE incidence among elderly households was 44.9%. The CHE incidence of empty-nest singles (59.3%, p=0.000, OR=3.19) and empty-nest couples (52.9%, p=0.000, OR=2.45) are both statistically higher than that of non-empty-nest elderly households (31.4%). An inverse association was observed between CHE incidence and income level in all elderly household types. Factors including 1 or more household elderly members with non-communicable chronic diseases in the past 6 months, 1 or more elderly household members being hospitalised in the past year and lower household income, are significant risk factors for CHE in all 3 household types (p<0.05). Health insurance status was found to be a significant determinant of CHE among empty-nest singles and non-empty-nest households (p<0.05). Conclusions CHE incidence among elderly households is high in China. Empty-nest households are at higher risk for CHE than non-empty-nest households. Based on these findings, we suggest that special insurance be developed to broaden the coverage of health services and heighten the reimbursement rate for empty-nest elderly in the existing health insurance schemes. Financial and social protection interventions are also essential for identified at-risk subgroups among different types of elderly households. PMID:27381206

  10. Estimation of Incident Wave Height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frigaard, Peter; Helm-Petersen, J.

    1994-01-01

    The paper is the results found by Aalborg University in the calculations of the incident wave heights hm0 and the reflection coefficients α from the LIP-MAST investigations in the Vinje-Basin during May to July 1994....

  11. The NEA incident reporting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Incident Reporting System (IRS) was established in 1980 in order to exchange operating experience gained in thermal nuclear power plants and to facilitate proper feedback of this experience to benefit nuclear regulatory authorities, utilities and manufacturers as well as to provide additional guidance for safety research programmes. The purpose of the system is to collect and disseminate sufficiently detailed information on incidents of safety significance in nuclear power plants, as soon as practicable, and feed back appropriate conclusions from such incidents. The exchange of information, in the form of reports, is supplemented by a database storage system designed to facilitate the process of identifying relevant reported incidents for specific studies. The NEA-IRS is an efficient and effective way of collecting and distributing information about operational experience of nuclear power plants on an international scale. (author)

  12. Idiot Savants: Rate of Incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, A. Lewis

    1977-01-01

    A survey of 300 public residential facilities for the mentally retarded revealed a .06 percent incidence rate for idiot savants, persons of low intelligence who possess an unusually high skill in some special task. (CL)

  13. NRC Incident-Response Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulates civilian nuclear activities to protect the public health and safety and to preserve environmental quality. An Incident Response Plan had been developed and has now been revised to reflect current Commission policy. NUREG-0728, Rev. 1 assigns responsibilities for responding to any potentially threatening incident involving NRC licensed activities and for assuring that the NRC will fulfill its statutory mission. This report has also been reproduced for staff use as NRC Manual Chapter 0502

  14. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth Hewitt; Manjari Mehta

    2012-01-01

    Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

  15. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...

  16. A CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL FOR DEVELOPING MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR ONLINE ART AUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Xiang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Online auction is one of the successful business models in electronic commerce. In recent years, online auction has once again become an important part in many people’s lives, setting new records in transaction amounts and bringing huge profits to the owners of auction websites. Customer satisfaction has become an important issue for online auction. The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between e-service quality and satisfaction by using a catastrophe model. The latent variables and manifest variables are defined in the Structural Equation Model (SEM. The catastrophe model was used to developing marketing. The empirical results demonstrated that design is the key factors to impact on consumers to choose the online art auction web site.

  17. The shapes of fragments in hypervelocity impact experiments ranging from cratering to catastrophic disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikami, T.; Hagermann, A.; Kadokawa, T.; Yoshida, A.; Shimada, A.; Hasegawa, S.; Tsuchiyama, A.

    2015-12-01

    Laboratory impact experiments have found that the shapes of impact fragments as defined by axes a, b and c, these being the maximum dimensions of the fragment in three mutually orthogonal planes (a ≥ b ≥ c) are distributed around mean values of the axial ratios b/a ~0.7 and c/a ~0.5, i.e., corresponding to a : b: c in the simple proportion 2: √2: 1. The shape distributions of some boulders on asteroid Eros, the small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter 8 m) on asteroid Itokawa. The mean value of c/a of these boulders is 0.46, which is similar to the value for catastrophic disruption. This implies that the parent body of Itokawa could have experienced a catastrophic disruption.

  18. Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vipul; Dixit, Narendra M.

    2015-10-01

    Increasing the mutation rate, μ , of viruses above a threshold, {μ }c, has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/≤ft(μ -{μ }c\\right). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.

  19. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

  20. Catastrophic model for stability analysis of high pile-column bridge pier

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    According to the engineering features of higher pile-column bridge pier in mountainous area, a clamped beam mechanical model was set up by synthetically analyzing the higher pile-column bridge pier buckling mechanism. Based on the catastrophe theory, the cusp catastrophe model of higher pile-column bridge pier was established by the determination of its potential function and bifurcation set equation, the necessary instability conditions of high pile-column bridge pier were deduced, and the determination method for column-buckling and lateral displacement of high pile-column bridge pier was derived. The comparison between the experimental and calculated results show that the calculated curves agree with testing curves and the method is reasonable and effective.

  1. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing

  2. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing.

  3. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact. Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécheresse et au gel, ayant affectés le Chaco bolivien. Par ailleurs, cet article vise à montrer en quoi une analyse des facteurs de causalité et des impacts post-catastrophe déjà connus est nécessaire. Ces notions sont souvent associées aux aléas à grande échelle pouvant survenir brutalement, mais elles occultent la compréhension des besoins lors de crises qui surviennent à causes d’aléas diffus, extensifs, liés aux styles de vie. Il s’agit également de révéler en quoi les tentatives d’appréhender les catégories successives de risques, apparemment séquencées, en utilisant des mécanismes et des cadres institutionnels indépendants, sont vouées à l’échec. De fait, des relations existent entre risques principaux, risques contingents et risques futurs, et la gestion des risques de catastrophe ainsi que les mécanismes de développement nécessaires pour les réduire.

  4. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Perturbative x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    The tunneling density of states exhibits anomalies (cusps, algebraic suppressions, and pseudogaps) at the Fermi energy in a wide variety of low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. We argue that in many cases these spectral anomalies are caused by an infrared catastrophe in the screening response to the sudden introduction of a new electron into the system during a tunneling event. A nonperturbative functional-integral method is introduced to account for this effect, making u...

  5. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Beyond the x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a nonperturbative method to calculate the electron propagator in low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. The method builds on our earlier work using a Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation to map the tunneling problem to the x-ray edge problem, which accounts for the infrared catastrophe caused by the sudden introduction of a new electron into a conductor during a tunneling event. Here we use a cumulant expansion to include fluctuations about this x-ray edge limit. ...

  6. Catastrophe risk sharing and public-private partnerships : From natural disasters to terrorism

    OpenAIRE

    De Marcelis-Warin, Nathalie; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2003-01-01

    Recent extreme events showed how insurers, deprived of reinsurance capacity at an affordable price, could decide to stop covering for specific extreme events and rapidly let people and firms uncovered. Developing public-private partnerships could constitute one of the most appealing ways to solve the problem of financing the consequences of those extremes events by taking advantage of strengths of both sectors. Catastrophic risks present, however, very specific characteristics which really ch...

  7. OPTIMAL INSURANCE FOR CATASTROPHIC RISK: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO NUCLEAR CORPORATE LIABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Louaas, Alexis; Picard, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the optimal insurance coverage for high severity-low probability accidents, both from theoretical and applied standpoints. Such accidents qualify as catastrophic when their risk premium is a non-negligible proportion of the victims’ wealth, although the probability of occurrence is very small. We show that this may be the case when the individual’s absolute risk aversion is very large in the accident case. We characterize the optimal insurance contract firstly for an individual, an...

  8. CATASTROPHIC ABDOMINAL INJURY WITH EVISCERATION OF JEJUNUM AND ILEUM IN A DRAUGHT DONKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Hussain, M. Athar, A. Yousaf, G. Muhammad and M. Saqib

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The present report describes a catastrophic penetrating abdominal injury associated with a roadside accident in a draught donkey. Though repair of the eviscerated, damaged portion of the small intestine was accomplished successfully, the animal could not be saved. After postmortem it was concluded that hypovolemia and respiratory distress resulted in the death of the wounded donkey before any resuscitating attempt could be made.

  9. Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsü, Kenneth J.

    1980-05-01

    Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

  10. Equalization Reserves for Natural Catastrophes and Shareholder Value: a Simulation Study

    OpenAIRE

    Dacorogna M.; Albrecher H.; Moller M.; Sahiti S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects on the company value for shareholders of keeping equalization reserves for catastrophic risk in an insurance company. We perform an extensive simulation study to compare the performance of the company with and without equalization reserves for several standard profitability measures. Equalization reserves turn out to be beneficial for shareholders in terms of the resulting expected Sharpe ratio and also with respect to the value of the call option on assets...

  11. Governing Ignorance: Emerging Catastrophic Risks—Industry Responses and Policy Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Castellano

    2010-01-01

    The growing interconnections between people, markets and networks together with the development of new technologies have increased the frequency and impact of large-scale disasters around the globe. Many of these events, defined as emerging catastrophic (or systemic) risks, have no previous record. At the same time there is a strong probability that their frequency and impact will increase in the future. This paper takes a governance perspective by assuming that policy actions should be desig...

  12. Generation of a family of Pearcey beams based on Fresnel diffraction catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the theory of differential geometry and Fresnel diffraction catastrophes, we theoretically prove that the cusped caustic of Pearcey beams are the evolute of a parabola and thus identify the key factor determining the optical structure of Pearcey beams. We numerically simulate and experimentally generate a family of Pearcey beams with various optical topological structures using different parabolas. We then investigate their optical structures and propagation properties. (paper)

  13. The earthquake and tsunami - observations by Japanese physicians since the 11 March catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Nagamatsu, Soichiro; Maekawa, Tsuyoshi; Ujike,Yoshihito; Hashimoto, Satoru; FUKE,Nobuo

    2011-01-01

    Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a tsunami on 11 March 2011. Although this catastrophe has caused the most devastating damage to Japan since World War II, we believe that our systematic preparation for disasters somewhat alleviated the damage. Learning lessons from the magnitude 7.3 Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995, the government organized approximately 700 medical teams specialized in disaster management. In this earthquake of 2011, hundreds of medical teams were successfu...

  14. Using participating and financial contracts to insure catastrophe risk: Implications for crop risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Enjolras, Geoffroy; Kast, Robert

    2008-01-01

    High losses generated by natural catastrophes reduce the availability of insurance. Among the ways to manage risk, the subscriptions of participating and non-participating contracts respectively permit to implement the two major principles in risk allocation: the mutuality and the transfer principles. Decomposing a global risk into its idiosyncratic and systemic components, we show that: the participating contract hedges the individual losses under a variable premium and the systemic risk is ...

  15. Using participating and financial contracts to insure catastrophe risk: implications for crop risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Enjolras, Geoffroy; Kast, Robert; European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists

    2007-01-01

    High losses generated by natural catastrophes reduce the availability of insurance. Among the ways to manage risk, the subscriptions of participating and non-participating contracts respectively permit to implement the two major principles in risk allocation: the mutuality and the transfer principles. Decomposing a global risk into its idiosyncratic and systemic components, we show that: the participating contract hedges the individual losses under a variable premium and the systemic risk is ...

  16. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    OpenAIRE

    Krasilnikov, E. Yu.

    2002-01-01

    Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the tropospher...

  17. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau–Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both. (fast track communication)

  18. Catastrophizing and anxiety sensitivity mediate the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, E Amy; Jones, Elizabeth; Hopkins, Christina M; Ruggieri, Madelyn; Hruska, Alesha

    2016-08-01

    Stress-induced or "emotional eating" contributes to increased caloric intake and weight gain, yet models examining psychosocial factors that promote and sustain this behavior are incomplete. There is a need to identify explicit, clinically-relevant mechanisms of emotional eating behavior. Pain is a common stressor associated with increased weight and, potentially, altered eating behaviors. The present study applies the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM) of pain to examine processes that may explain the relationship between pain and increased weight while also providing the opportunity to examine specific mechanisms that may encourage eating during a variety of stressors. Our aim is to better understand the impact of pain on eating behavior and the potential for the FAM to improve our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that promote eating during times of duress. A survey of 312 adults explored the link between pain experience and stress-induced eating, further examining the mediating effects of the psychological aspects of the FAM (e.g., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophizing, and pain-related fear). 24% of respondents reported persistent pain, and had significantly higher BMIs than their pain-free peers. All three FAM components were positively correlated with measures of emotional, external, and restrained eating. Anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing significantly mediated the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating behavior, while anxiety sensitivity alone mediated the relationship between persistent pain and external eating. Findings suggest pain may be associated with increased likelihood for emotional eating and that characteristics from FAM, in particular anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing, may mediate the relationship between the presence of persistent pain and emotional eating behavior. Evidence-based treatments targeting anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing could be useful to address emotional eating in individuals struggling

  19. Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster

    OpenAIRE

    Plyer, Allison; Bonaguro, Joy; Hodges, Ken

    2009-01-01

    After a large scale evacuation, authorities need to know the new and frequently changing population distributions in order to meet needs for housing, schools, health care, and other services. This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. The most appropriate data to estimate population i...

  20. Study on Evaluation Models of Highway Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hezheng Bi; Linjun Lu; Jian Lu; Chen Wang

    2014-01-01

    Evaluating safety performance of first-class highways in China is important due to their high mortality rates. Traditional models for statistical crash prediction and traffic conflict techniques require long periods of data collection which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces a safety evaluation method based on catastrophe theory for highways in China. The method firstly divides the highway into multiple road sections and uses video-based road detection (VRD) system t...

  1. Development of a Catastrophe Model for Managing the Risks of Urban Flash Flooding in Vienna

    OpenAIRE

    K.L. Compton; Faber, R.; Ermolieva, T.; J. Linnerooth-Bayer; Nachtnebel, H.-P.

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a case study examining flood risks in the city of Vienna. The purpose is to illustrate an interdisciplinary approach to flood risk analysis, combining hydrological flood risk assessment and simulation modeling with the finances of flood risk management. Three scenarios were preliminarily identified for analysis: catastrophic flooding on a major European river (the Danube) that flows through Vienna; storm flooding due to failure of storm drainage systems; and flash ...

  2. Stories from Around the Globe: Financing Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Selected Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Dela Cruz, Anna Mae D.; Nuevo, Christian Edward L.; Haw, Nel Jason L.; Tang, Vincent Anthony S.

    2014-01-01

    This study reviews literature on financing catastrophic health expenditures in selected countries to describe and synthesize the strategies of relatively successful health financing schemes. It begins with a review of basic concepts and definitions to set the stage for later discussions. This is followed by a country selection process, where countries were selected based on their income level, health outcomes, coverage outcomes, cost effectiveness, and the availability of information on their...

  3. Cyber Incidents Involving Control Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert J. Turk

    2005-10-01

    The Analysis Function of the US-CERT Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has prepared this report to document cyber security incidents for use by the CSSC. The description and analysis of incidents reported herein support three CSSC tasks: establishing a business case; increasing security awareness and private and corporate participation related to enhanced cyber security of control systems; and providing informational material to support model development and prioritize activities for CSSC. The stated mission of CSSC is to reduce vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attack on control systems. As stated in the Incident Management Tool Requirements (August 2005) ''Vulnerability reduction is promoted by risk analysis that tracks actual risk, emphasizes high risk, determines risk reduction as a function of countermeasures, tracks increase of risk due to external influence, and measures success of the vulnerability reduction program''. Process control and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, with their reliance on proprietary networks and hardware, have long been considered immune to the network attacks that have wreaked so much havoc on corporate information systems. New research indicates this confidence is misplaced--the move to open standards such as Ethernet, Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol, and Web technologies is allowing hackers to take advantage of the control industry's unawareness. Much of the available information about cyber incidents represents a characterization as opposed to an analysis of events. The lack of good analyses reflects an overall weakness in reporting requirements as well as the fact that to date there have been very few serious cyber attacks on control systems. Most companies prefer not to share cyber attack incident data because of potential financial repercussions. Uniform reporting requirements will do much to make this

  4. Metal recycle and recovery

    OpenAIRE

    Hussain, Zaib-un-nisa

    1999-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University. The development of techniques for the removal and recovery of metals from industrial effluent taking account of the consequences of the definition of waste in the Basel Convention on transfrontier shipment of waste is reported. The use of fluidised bed cell electrolysis in the recovery of metals from dilute solutions is investigated, and the conditions for recovery optimised. For the first...

  5. Beyond enhanced recovery?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christoffer C; Kehlet, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    We read with great interest the special article by Smart and Daniels discussing several important topics of perioperative care, especially regarding lack of consensus on the definition of "postoperative recovery", and need for further understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms. However, we disagree...... that a "new, clearly defined standard of what "recovery" actually is", demands "a look beyond enhanced recovery"(1) for several reasons. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  6. Catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes in fully open magnetic field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI; Guoqiang(李国强); HU; Youqiu(胡友秋)

    2002-01-01

    The catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes is closely related to solar explosive phenomena, such as prominence eruptions, coronal mass ejections, and two-ribbon solar flares. Using a 2-dimensional, 3-component ideal MHD model in Cartesian coordinates, numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the equilibrium property of a coronal magnetic flux rope which is embedded in a fully open background magnetic field. The flux rope emerges from the photosphere and enters the corona with its axial and annular magnetic fluxes controlled by a single "emergence parameter". For a flux rope that has entered the corona, we may change its axial and annular fluxes artificially and let the whole system reach a new equilibrium through numerical simulations. The results obtained show that when the emergence parameter, the axial flux, or the annular flux is smaller than a certain critical value, the flux rope is in equilibrium and adheres to the photosphere. On the other hand, if the critical value is exceeded, the flux rope loses equilibrium and erupts freely upward, namely, a catastrophe takes place. In contrast with the partly-opened background field, the catastrophic amplitude is infinite for the case of fully-opened background field.

  7. 论灾难的德育价值%The Ethical Value of Catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程德慧

    2009-01-01

    the developing history of human kind has in fact been the course of buffeting with all sorts of misfortunes. The formation, development of natural disasters and social catastrophes need to be further ex-plored, so the sagacious people could have a greater ability to overcome natural disasters and minimize the damage. The article applies the ethical approaches to analyze the formation and presentation of social catastrophes, and the causes of civic awareness and responsibilities when facing these misfortunes, with the hope that these catastrophes could be an important resources of citizenship education and bring beneficial inspiration for the sound development of civil society.%人类文明的发展历程就是与各种灾难斗争的历程,加强对灾难及社会危机事件的研究,可以使人类认识灾难的发生、发展的规律,增强人类征服自然、改造自然的能力.同时,将会对我国公民社会健康发展带来很多有益的启示.

  8. Dynamics of microtubule asters in microfabricated chambers: The role of catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faivre-Moskalenko, Cendrine; Dogterom, Marileen

    2002-01-01

    Recent in vivo as well as in vitro experiments have indicated that microtubule pushing alone is sufficient to position a microtubule-organizing center within a cell. Here, we investigate the effect of catastrophes on the dynamics of microtubule asters within microfabricated chambers that mimic the confining geometry of living cells. The use of a glass bead as the microtubule-organizing center allows us to manipulate the aster by using optical tweezers. In the case in which microtubules preexist, we show that because of microtubule buckling, repositioning almost never occurs after relocation with the optical tweezers, although initial microtubule growth always leads the aster to the geometrical center of the chamber. When a catastrophe promoter is added, we find instead that the aster is able to efficiently explore the chamber geometry even after being relocated with the optical tweezers. As predicted by theoretical calculations, the results of our in vitro experiments clearly demonstrate the need for catastrophes for proper positioning in a confining geometry. These findings correlate with recent observations of nuclear positioning in fission yeast cells. PMID:12486218

  9. Incorporating Family Function into Chronic Pain Disability: The Role of Catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Akbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Observers’ responses to pain are recently investigated to more comprehensively explain chronic pain (CP and disability. However, the role of family context, defined as interference in roles, communication, and problem-solving, and how (i.e., through which mechanisms these variables contribute to CP related disability have yet to be examined. Objectives. The aim of the present study is to examine family context in relationship to pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and depression and its role in understanding CP disability. Three different models were examined. Methods. A total sample of 142 patients with musculoskeletal chronic pain was recruited to examine the role of fear of movement, pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and depression in relationship to family functioning as predictors of disability. Results. Findings indicated that two models showed acceptable fit, but one of them revealed superior fit indices. Results of the model with superior fit indices indicated that family dysfunction may contribute to catastrophic thinking, which, in turn, contributes to patients’ disability through increasing fear of movement and depression. Discussion. The current study provides further support for the notion that the impact of emotional and cognitive variables upon CP-related disability can be better understood when we consider the social context of pain patients and family function in particular.

  10. Observational Features of Large-Scale Structures as Revealed by the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale magnetic structures are the main carrier of major eruptions in the solar atmosphere. These structures are rooted in the photosphere and are driven by the unceasing motion of the photospheric material through a series of equilibrium configurations. The motion brings energy into the coronal magnetic field until the system ceases to be in equilibrium. The catastrophe theory for solar eruptions indicates that loss of mechanical equilibrium constitutes the main trigger mechanism of major eruptions, usually shown up as solar flares,eruptive prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Magnetic reconnection which takes place at the very beginning of the eruption as a result of plasma instabilities/turbulence inside the current sheet, converts magnetic energy into heating and kinetic energy that are responsible for solar flares, and for accelerating both plasma ejecta (flows and CMEs) and energetic particles. Various manifestations are thus related to one another, and the physics behind these relationships is catastrophe and magnetic reconnection. This work reports on recent progress in both theoretical research and observations on eruptive phenomena showing the above manifestations. We start by displaying the properties of large-scale structures in the corona and the related magnetic fields prior to an eruption, and show various morphological features of the disrupting magnetic fields. Then, in the framework of the catastrophe theory,we look into the physics behind those features investigated in a succession of previous works,and discuss the approaches they used.

  11. The surface of Mars: An unusual laboratory that preserves a record of catastrophic and unusual events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophic and unusual events on Earth such as bolide impacts, megafloods, supereruptions, flood volcanism, and subice volcanism may have devastating effects when they occur. Although these processes have unique characteristics and form distinctive features and deposits, we have diffi culties identifying them and measuring the magnitude of their effects. Our diffi culties with interpreting these processes and identifying their consequences are understandable considering their infrequency on Earth, combined with the low preservation potential of their deposits in the terrestrial rock record. Although we know these events do happen, they are infrequent enough that the deposits are poorly preserved on the geologically active face of the Earth, where erosion, volcanism, and tectonism constantly change the surface. Unlike the Earth, on Mars catastrophic and unusual features are well preserved because of the slow modifi cation of the surface. Signifi cant precipitation has not occurred on Mars for billions of years and there appears to be no discrete crustal plates to have undergone subduction and destruction. Therefore the ancient surface of Mars preserves geologic features and deposits that result from these extraordinary events. Also, unlike the other planets, Mars is the most similar to our own, having an atmosphere, surface ice, volcanism, and evidence of onceflowing water. So although our understanding of precursors, processes, and possible biological effects of catastrophic and unusual processes is limited on Earth, some of these mysteries may be better understood through investigating the surface of Mars. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  12. Spectral signatures of compact sources in the inverse Compton catastrophe limit

    CERN Document Server

    Petropoulou, Maria; Mastichiadis, Apostolos

    2015-01-01

    The inverse Compton catastrophe is defined as a dramatic rise in the luminosity of inverse Compton scattered photons. It is described by a non-linear loop of radiative processes that sets in for high values of the electron compactness and is responsible for the efficient transfer of energy from electrons to photons, predominantly through inverse Compton scatterings. We search for the conditions that drive a magnetized non-thermal source to the inverse Compton catastrophe regime and study its multi-wavelength (MW) photon spectrum. We develop a generic analytical framework and use numerical calculations as a backup to the analytical predictions. We find that the escaping radiation from a source in the Compton catastrophe regime bears some unique features. The MW photon spectrum is a broken power law with a break at $\\sim m_e c^2$ due to the onset of the Klein-Nishina suppression. The spectral index below the break energy depends on the electron and magnetic compactnesses logarithmically, while it is independent...

  13. Effects of Catastrophic Insect Outbreaks on the Harvesting Solutions of Dahurian Larch Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal harvesting under pest outbreak risk was studied on a set of even-aged Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii stands in northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. The effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks caused by the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus on the economic harvesting plan are compared through both deterministic and stochastic cases. Stand simulation is based on an individual-tree growth system. A scenario approach is applied when simulating the effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks. Insect damage is assumed to be a Poisson process with an average rate of 0.1 per year. One hundred scenarios of insect damage are created using the Poisson process to simulate the distribution of bare land value of each of the optimal regimes. Numerical results show that the optimal rotation is shortened with an increasing probability of a catastrophe. The average bare land values in the stochastic case are approximately 14.8% to 22.9% lower. Numbers of thinnings are decreased for most plots when seeking a highest bare land value, compared to the deterministic optima. If given a constant thinning rate, increasing risk-taking shortens the optimum rotation, as the model set used.

  14. One day at a time: The impact of daily satisfaction with spouse responses on pain, negative affect and catastrophizing among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtzman, Susan; Delongis, Anita

    2007-09-01

    The majority of research on pain catastrophizing has focused on its negative consequences for adjustment to chronic pain, with few investigations of factors that influence catastrophizing or its detrimental effects. Using a daily process methodology, the current study examined, first, the extent to which a supportive social environment plays a role in reduced catastrophizing, and second, the extent to which support might protect against the detrimental effects of catastrophizing on well-being. Sixty-nine married individuals with rheumatoid arthritis took part in an initial background interview, followed by twice daily telephone interviews (regarding pain intensity, negative affect, catastrophizing and satisfaction with spouse responses) for 1 week. Multi-level modeling indicated several pathways through which satisfaction with spouse responses disrupts the vicious cycle of pain, negative affect and catastrophizing. Consistent with past research, catastrophizing was associated with increases in pain and negative affect. However, when individuals reported increases in satisfaction with spouse responses they were less likely to experience increases in negative affect due to catastrophizing. Satisfaction with spouse responses also reduced the likelihood of feeling overwhelmed and helpless in dealing with daily pain. The relationship between pain and catastrophizing was attenuated in the context of increases in satisfaction with spouse responses. Negative affect was associated with increases in catastrophizing, but only when individuals reported decreases in satisfaction with spouse responses. Overall, findings were consistent with a model in which satisfaction with spouse responses serves as a coping resource, and suggests the importance of involving close others in treatments to reduce pain and catastrophizing.

  15. GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Zolotarev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

  16. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  17. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esser Norbert

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background and Purpose Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR. Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Materials and methods Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2. Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. Results SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Conclusions Our results suggest the importance of delayed

  18. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  19. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  20. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  1. Catastrophic disruption in the solar system - Asteroid collisional history, origin of Hirayama families and disruption of small satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    The process of collisional catastrophic disruption has played a significantly role in structuring the solar system. Diverse populations of bodies such as the asteroid belt, small satellites of Jupiter and Saturn and perhaps even the rings of Saturn have been created or substantially changed by catastrophic distruption. Understanding the outcome of large scale impacts is essential to learning about the early history of the solar system in the asteroid zone and the reason why a planet failed to form there.

  2. Critical Incident Reporting in Anaesthesia: A Prospective Internal Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunanda Gupta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Critical incident monitoring is useful in detecting new problems, identifying near misses′ and analyzing factors or events leading to mishaps, which can be instructive for trainees. This study was aimed at investigating potential risk factors and analyze events leading to pen-operative critical incidents in order to develop a critical incident reporting system. W conducted a one year prospective analysis of voluntarily reported 24- hour-perioperative critical inci-dents, occurring in patients subjected to anaesthesia. During a one year period from December 2006 to December 2007, 14,134 anaesthetics were administered and 112(0.79% critical incidents were reported with complete recov-ery in 71.42%(n=80 and mortality in 28.57% (n=32 cases. Incidents occurred maximally in 0-10 years age (23.21%, ASA 1(61.61%, in general surgery patients (43.75%, undergoing emergency surgery (52.46% and during day time (75.89%. Incidence was more in the operating theatre (77.68%, during maintenance (32.04% and post-operative phase (25.89% and in patients who received general anaesthesia (75.89%. Critical incidents occurred clue to fac-tors related to anaesthesia (42.85%, patient (37.50% and surgery (16.96°lo. Among anaesthesia related critical incidents (42.85% n=48/112, respiratory events were maximum (66.66% mainly at induction (37.5% and emer-gence (43.75%, and factors responsible were human error (85.41%, pharmacological factors (10.41% and equip-ment error (4.17%. Incidence of mortality was 22.6 per10, 000 anaesthetics (32/14,314, mostly attributable to risk factors in patient (59.38% as compared to anaesthesia (25% and surgery (9.38%. There were 8 anaesthesia related deaths (5.6 per 10, 000 anaesthetics where human error (75% attributed to lack of judgment (67.50% was an important causative factor. We conclude that critical incident reporting system may be a valuable part of quality assurance to develop policies to prevent recurrence and enhance patient

  3. Risk - hazardous incident - communication 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terms such as 'risk', 'hazardous incident', and 'communication' have become major catchwords in discussions about present-day problems, and may be reduced to a common denominator: disaster. Such an association, however, is inappropriate, as the concept indicated by the term 'risk' for instance covers a wide scale of possible danger. Even the term 'hazardous incident' describes events or conditions that are very different in terms of possible danger, let alone disastrous effects. The discrepancy to be observed between the facts and the public perception usually is due to the fact that people have little insight into the complex of problems involved, and to insufficient communication between the world of experts and the general public. The contributions to this publication present information and discuss a variety of solution sets to improve the communication problems in the context of the problem area of 'risk - hazardous incident - communication'. (orig./CB)

  4. Risk - hazardous incident - communication 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is difficult to develop an objective approach to risks and effects of a hazardous incident that would be acceptable to the community at large. It is a matter of fact that there is great dissimilarity in the way various social groups perceive and define the risks of a particular technology, or the effects of hazardous incidents, sometimes they have even contrary opinions. Hence, open communication is seriously hampered, which in turn aggravates the problems encountered in this context. This second volume of the publication dealing with the problem area of 'risk - hazardous incident - communication' is intended to reveal patterns of the recurrent process which impedes communication, and to bridge the gaps between the various 'styles' of risk perception and definition. (orig./CB)

  5. Incidence Handling and Response System

    CERN Document Server

    Kalbande, Prof Dhananjay R; Singh, Mr Manish

    2009-01-01

    A computer network can be attacked in a number of ways. The security-related threats have become not only numerous but also diverse and they may also come in the form of blended attacks. It becomes difficult for any security system to block all types of attacks. This gives rise to the need of an incidence handling capability which is necessary for rapidly detecting incidents, minimizing loss and destruction, mitigating the weaknesses that were exploited and restoring the computing services. Incidence response has always been an important aspect of information security but it is often overlooked by security administrators. in this paper, we propose an automated system which will handle the security threats and make the computer network capable enough to withstand any kind of attack. we also present the state-of-the-art technology in computer, network and software which is required to build such a system.

  6. Recent waterway incidents around dams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowat, L. [Ontario Power Generation Inc., Niagara Falls, ON (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    This presentation discussed recent waterway incidents around dams. Several case histories were presented, including a man who drowned when he slipped from the top of the South Idaho Power Plant Spillway in June 3 2004; 2 brothers who drowned near a spillway in Watson Minnesota, in June, 2004; a jet-skier who plunged to his death after ramping the 50 foot Brasfield Dam, in Virginia in June, 2004; a couple whose boat on Lake Austin was swept up against the sluicegate; an angler who drowned at a dam in Bridgeville, Delaware; a man who drowned swimming below a dam in San Marcos, Texas in April, 2005; and a fisherman who drowned at Logan Martin Dam in Birmingham, Alabama in April, 2005. A list of examples of fatalities at dams in 2004 and international incidents at dams from 2005 and 2006 to 2008 were also provided. Examples of Canadian incidents at dams were also listed. figs.

  7. Preparedness for and response to a radiological or nuclear incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Public health and medical planning for a nuclear or radiological incident requires a complex, multi-faceted systematic approach involving federal, state and local governments, private sector organizations, academia, industry, international partners and individual experts and volunteers. The approach developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in collaboration with other U.S. Departments is the result of efforts from government and non-government experts that connect the available capabilities, resources, guidance tools, underlying concepts and science into the Nuclear Incident Medical Enterprise (NlME). It is a systems approach that can be used to support planning for, response to, and recovery from the effects of a nuclear incident. Experience is gained in exercises specific to radiation but also from other mass casualty incidents as there are many principles and components in common. Resilience and the ability to mitigate the consequences of a nuclear incident are enhanced by effective planning, preparation and training, timely response, clear communication, and continuous improvements based on new science, technology, experience and ideas. Recognizing that preparation for a radiological or nuclear incident will be a lower priority for healthcare workers and responders due to other demands, the Radiation Emergency Medical Management website has been developed with the National Library of Medicine. This includes tools for education and training, just-in-time medical management and triage among others. Most of the components of NIME are published in the peer review medical and disaster medicine literature to help ensure high quality and accessibility. While NIME is a continuous work-in-progress, the current status of the public health and medical preparedness and response for a nuclear incident is presented. (author)

  8. Characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and determination of deposition hazard area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Chia-Ming; Weng, Meng-Chia

    2013-04-01

    During extreme rainfall, deep-seated catastrophic landslide is a frequent mishap in main stream and tributaries of Taiwan. Reviewing the histories of Taiwan landslide events, as a large and deep-seated rock/soil mass of simultaneous movements in a valley, it might cause serious disasters. Reviewing the present literatures, there are morphological indications that the potential deep-seated catastrophic landslide can be track and find. Especially, the slate slope is influenced by weathering and gravitation for a long time, it become weak and it may cause the sliding slope creep and folding rock that will become the sliding surface of deep-seated catastrophic landslide. But analysis deep-seated catastrophic landslides for disaster preparedness and response planning are sometimes inadequate due to the complexity of such slopes. Whereas, this study mainly focus on deep-seated catastrophic landslide in valley. The study area has chosen Xiandushan Mountain, the 115.9 k of Suhua highway, and Zhuoshui River which to discuss the characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and deposition hazard area. Base on the past events of deep-seated catastrophic landslide, the geological investigation, morphological analysis, and remote sensing technology will helpful to induce the geological characteristics and the morphological evolution. Besides, the deep-seated catastrophic landslide events will simplify to set up the physical modeling, its interpret the variation conditions to influence the characteristics, movement process, and deposition hazard area for deep-seated catastrophic landslide. The results of physical modeling were compared with those produced by numerical analysis (Application of discrete element method by PFC3D program) so that the correctness of the numerical simulation could be justified. Subsequently, calibrated numerical methods adopted in the small-scale model were used to simulate the full-scale model. The simulation

  9. Evaluating the potential for catastrophic fault-rupture-related hazards affecting a key hydroelectric and irrigation region in central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rust, D.; Korjenkov, A.; Tibaldi, A.; Usmanova, M.

    2009-04-01

    of these toxic dumps are vulnerable to seismically induced landsliding, release of reservoir water and breaching of very large (up to several km3) landslide-dammed lakes within the deep mountain valleys typical of the fault zone. The May 2008 earthquake in neighboring Sichuan, in which some 30 landslide-dammed lakes were created, may be useful in refining hazard scenarios developed from the multi-pronged analysis employed in our study. This analysis involves compiling all relevant existing data, such as seismic archives held in paper format, within the project GIS. Spatial and temporal patterns exhibited by these compiled data, together with focal mechanism determinations where possible, are combined with data on the distribution and nature of geological units to provide estimates of peak ground acceleration and the likely incidence of seismically-triggered slope instability. This compilation also identifies data deficiencies to be targeted using a portable seismometer network, geophysical and geodetic surveys, InSAR and other remote sensing data; all combined with geotechnical and palaeoseismological fieldwork. Initial results from this approach confirm the ground-shaking potential of Talas-Fergana rupture events, suggest a long-term slip rate as high as 15 mm a-1, and the occurrence of the last ground-rupturing event some 4-500 years BP. The lack of significant activity since that event suggests the Talas-Fergana structure may comprise a seismic gap within the Tien-Shan, highlighting the importance of hazard scenarios in proposing mitigation measures against potentially catastrophic threats, such as extensive pollution of irrigated lands in the Fergana Valley downstream from Toktogul on which some 10 million people depend.

  10. Serious Incident Management in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Ike; Thorley-Smith, Sara

    2007-01-01

    As part of its efforts to ensure school safety, the government of New South Wales, Australia, has developed simulation exercises to better prepare principals to manage serious incidents, in collaboration with police. This article describes two initiatives implemented across NSW. The exercises provide principals in both secondary and primary…

  11. [Incidence of cancer in Navarre].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardanaz, E; Moreno, C; Pérez de Rada Arístegui, M E; Ezponda, C; Navaridas, N

    2004-01-01

    Between 1998 and 2000 an annual average of 3,303 cases of invasive cancer were registered in Navarre, 58% of them in men. If we except non melanoma skin tumours, the annual number of cases was 2,495, with gross incidence rates of 559 and 372 per 100,000 in men and women, and rates adjusted to the world population of 312 and 203 per 100,000 respectively. Amongst men, the four most frequently diagnosed tumoural localisations were the prostate, lung, colorectal and bladder, accounting for 57% of all cases. The most notable due to their frequency amongst women were tumours of the breast, colorectal, uterus body and ovary, accounting for 54% of all cases. With respect to the five year period from 1993 to 1997, the global incidence of cancer in the three year period from 1998 to 2000 has increased 4.2% in men and 7.4% in women. The incidence of lung cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphomas in both sexes and of breast cancer in women and prostate cancer in men are notable. There continues to be a fall in the incidence rates of stomach cancer in both sexes, following the tendency begun in the 1970s. PMID:15644889

  12. Solvent recycle/recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paffhausen, M.W.; Smith, D.L.; Ugaki, S.N.

    1990-09-01

    This report describes Phase I of the Solvent Recycle/Recovery Task of the DOE Chlorinated Solvent Substitution Program for the US Air Force by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, EG G Idaho, Inc., through the US Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office. The purpose of the task is to identify and test recovery and recycling technologies for proposed substitution solvents identified by the Biodegradable Solvent Substitution Program and the Alternative Solvents/Technologies for Paint Stripping Program with the overall objective of minimizing hazardous wastes. A literature search to identify recycle/recovery technologies and initial distillation studies has been conducted. 4 refs.

  13. A Globally Consistent Methodology for an Exposure Model for Natural Catastrophe Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Pandey, Bishwa; Saito, Keiko

    2013-04-01

    There is a high demand for the development of a globally consistent and robust exposure data model employing a top down approach, to be used in national level catastrophic risk profiling for the public sector liability. To this effect, there are currently several initiatives such as UN-ISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) and Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM). However, the consistency and granularity differs from region to region, a problem that is overcome in this proposed approach using national datasets for example in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCR). The methodology proposed in this paper aim to produce a global open exposure dataset based upon population, country specific building type distribution and other global/economic indicators such as World Bank indices that are suitable for natural catastrophe risk modelling purposes. The output would be a GIS raster grid at approximately 1 km spatial resolution which would highlight urbaness (building typology distribution, occupancy and use) for each cell at sub national level and compatible with other global initiatives and datasets. It would make use of datasets on population, census, demographic, building data and land use/land cover which are largely available in the public domain. The resultant exposure dataset could be used in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability components to create views of risk for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The model we hope would also assist in steps towards future initiatives for open, interchangeable and compatible databases for catastrophe risk modelling. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  14. S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muriel Erent

    Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

  15. Small Satellites Constellation for Monitoring of Natural and Man-made Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyarchuk, K.; Oraevsky, V.; Salikhov, R.; Danilkin, V.

    The possibility of creation a new conception of using the small satellites constellation arises today in connection with the development of the circuit technology for manufacturing real small space vehicles (SSV). Their low price allows to form the multi purpose satellite constellation. Such constellation is formed in frame of the Russian Federal space program till 2006. It is intended for monitoring of the natural (typhoons, hurricanes, eruptions of volcano etc.) and man-made (radioactive contamination etc.) catastrophes. The space segment will be designed and manufactured by Research Institute for Electromechanics Federal State Unitary Enterprise. The scientific instrumentation and program will be designed by IZMIRAN. Three types of SSV will be in the constellation: The high-altitude group is composed by 4 SV (200 kg each) and the low-altitude group consists of up to 12 SV (200 kg or 60 kg each). Parameters measured by the on-board information system are as follows: plasma composition, ionosphere altitude profile, UHF/VHF/HF noise factor, atmosphere glow, weather parameters, the Earth surface temperature, high-energy particles, magnetic field, electric field. The multi-spectrum instrumentation of remote sensing will be also mounted on vehicle. The first SV are scheduled to be launched to the sun-sinchronous orbit by ROCOT, STRELA or SHTEL launch- vehicles within 2005 - 2006. After realization of the first projects the system configuration can be changed.For example the multisatellite system can provide: - Short-term, intermediate term and long-term prognosis of earthquakes, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunami; - Monitoring of radioactive and other contaminations - Evaluation of extreme situations and consequences of catastrophes in regions; - Analysis of a condition of the equipment and pipelines of gas and oil complex, scattering of gas emissions in turbulent atmosphere, prediction of the probable man- made catastrophes; - Analysis of influence of solar activity on

  16. Overcoming catastrophic interference in connectionist networks using Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipin Srivastava

    Full Text Available Connectionist models of memory storage have been studied for many years, and aim to provide insight into potential mechanisms of memory storage by the brain. A problem faced by these systems is that as the number of items to be stored increases across a finite set of neurons/synapses, the cumulative changes in synaptic weight eventually lead to a sudden and dramatic loss of the stored information (catastrophic interference, CI as the previous changes in synaptic weight are effectively lost. This effect does not occur in the brain, where information loss is gradual. Various attempts have been made to overcome the effects of CI, but these generally use schemes that impose restrictions on the system or its inputs rather than allowing the system to intrinsically cope with increasing storage demands. We show here that catastrophic interference occurs as a result of interference among patterns that lead to catastrophic effects when the number of patterns stored exceeds a critical limit. However, when Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization is combined with the Hebb-Hopfield model, the model attains the ability to eliminate CI. This approach differs from previous orthogonalisation schemes used in connectionist networks which essentially reflect sparse coding of the input. Here CI is avoided in a network of a fixed size without setting limits on the rate or number of patterns encoded, and without separating encoding and retrieval, thus offering the advantage of allowing associations between incoming and stored patterns. PACS Nos.: 87.10.+e, 87.18.Bb, 87.18.Sn, 87.19.La.

  17. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: A "butterfly" catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ramos, J. E.; Pérez-Fernández, P.; Arias, J. M.; Freire, E.

    2016-03-01

    Background: In the past few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in nuclear physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q -like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and surfaces is determined using a catastrophe theory analysis. Conclusions: There are two first-order surfaces in the phase diagram, one separating the spherical and the deformed shapes, while the other separates two different deformed phases. A second-order line, where the later surfaces merge, is found. This line finishes in a transition point with a divergence in the second-order derivative of the energy that corresponds to a tricritical point in the language of the Ginzburg-Landau theory for phase transitions.

  18. Catastrophic optical mirror damage in diode lasers monitored during single-pulse operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zegler, M.; Tomm, J.W.; Reeber, D.;

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophic optical mirror damage (COMD) is analyzed for 808 nm emitting diode lasers in single-pulse operation in order to separate facet degradation from subsequent degradation processes. During each pulse, nearfield and thermal images are monitored. A temporal resolution better than 7 µs...... is achieved. The thermal runaway process is unambiguously related to the occurrence of a “thermal flash.” A one-by-one correlation between nearfield, thermal flash, thermal runaway, and structural damage is observed. The single-pulse excitation technique allows for controlling the propagation...

  19. Possibility of catastrophic black hole growth in the warped brane-world scenario at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we present the results of our analysis of the growth and decay of black holes possibly produced at the Large Hadron Collider, based on our previous study of black holes in the context of the warped brane-world scenario. The black hole mass accretion and decay is obtained as a function of time, and the maximum black hole mass are obtained as a function of a critical mass parameter. The latter occurs in our expression for the luminosity and is related to the size of extra-dimensional corrections to Newton's law. Based on this analysis, we argue against the possibility of catastrophic black hole growth at the LHC.

  20. Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) Charger: Spacesuit Battery Charger Design with 2-Fault Tolerance to Catastrophic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Davies, Frank

    2009-01-01

    Charger design that is 2-fault tolerant to catastrophic has been achieved for the Spacesuit Li-ion Battery with key features. Power supply control circuit and 2 microprocessors independently control against overcharge. 3 microprocessor control against undercharge (false positive: Go for EVA) conditions. 2 independent channels provide functional redundancy. Capable of charge balancing cell banks in series. Cell manufacturing and performance uniformity is excellent with both designs. Once a few outliers are removed, LV cells are slightly more uniform than MoliJ cells. If cell balance feature of charger is ever invoked, it will be an indication of a significant degradation issue, not a nominal condition.

  1. Risk Assessment of Power System Catastrophic Failures and Hidden Failure Monitoring & Control System

    OpenAIRE

    Qiu, Qun

    2003-01-01

    One of the objectives of this study is to develop a methodology, together with a set of software programs that evaluate, in a power system, the risks of catastrophic failures caused by hidden failures in the hardware or software components of the protection system. The disturbance propagation mechanism is revealed by the analysis of the 1977 New York Blackout. The step-by-step process of estimating the relay hidden failure probability is presented. A Dynamic Event Tree for the risk-based ana...

  2. An undergraduate laboratory experiment on measuring the velocity of light with a catastrophic machine

    CERN Document Server

    Mishonov, T M; Maskimovski, D D; Manolev, S G; Gourev, V N; Yordanov, V G

    2016-01-01

    An experimental setup for electrostatic measurement of $\\varepsilon_0$, magneto-static measurement of $\\mu_0$ and determination of the velocity of light $c=1/\\sqrt{\\varepsilon_0 \\mu_0}$ with percent accuracy is described. No forces are measured with the experimental setup therefore there is no need of a scale and the experiment price less than \\pounds20 is mainly due to the batteries used. Multiplied 137~times, this experimental setup was given at the fourth open international Experimental Physics Olympiad (EPO4) and a dozen high school students did very well. This article, however, focuses on the catastrophe theory, which is the basis of the methodology.

  3. Hydrogen Civilization Doctrine: Whether the Humankind Can Prevent Global Ecological Catastrophe?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GOLTSOV V. A.; GOLTSOVA L. F.; SPORTSMEN L. A.; GOLTSOVA M. V.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrogen Civilization (HyCi) doctrine is a novel world outlook,all-embracing vision of the sustainability of the human future:humanity can preclude world climate catastrophe and conserve the biosphere's ability to maintain the life of humanity by the only way,just by the sustainable movement along the vector "Hydrogen Energy → Hydrogen Economy → Hydrogen Civilization".HyCi doctrine is overcoming boundaries between different sciences,between peoples and nations.Hydrogen civilization is a public ideal (‘superattractor’)putting in the forefront Shakespeare's Hamlet question on a global scale:"To be or not to be the humankind:that is the question".

  4. The relationship of adult attachment dimensions to pain-related fear, hypervigilance, and catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWilliams, Lachlan A; Asmundson, Gordon J G

    2007-01-01

    Despite the prominence of fear-avoidance models of chronic pain, there is a paucity of research regarding the origins of pain-related fear. Based on the premise that insecure attachment could be a developmentally based origin of elevated fear of pain, associations between adult attachment dimensions and constructs included in fear-avoidance models of chronic pain were investigated. Consistent with Bartholomew and Horowitz's [Bartholomew K, Horowitz LM. Attachment styles among young adults: a test of a four-category model. J Pers Soc Psychol 1991;61:226-44.] model, attachment was conceptualized as being comprised of a model of self dimension (i.e., degree of anxiety regarding rejection based on beliefs of personal unworthiness) and a model of others dimension (i.e., degree of interpersonal mistrust and discomfort with interpersonal closeness). A large university student sample free of chronic pain (N=278) completed a measure of adult romantic attachment (i.e., Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire; [Brennan KA, Clark CL, Shaver PR. Self-report measurement of adult attachment: an integrative overview. In: Simpson JA, Rholes WS, editors. Attachment theory and close relationships. New York: The Guilford Press, 1998. p. 46-76.]), the Fear of Pain Questionnaire-III [McNeil DW, Rainwater AJ. Development of the fear of pain questionnaire - III. J Behav Med 1998;21:389-410.], the Pain Vigilance and Awareness Questionnaire [McCracken LM. Attention to pain in persons with chronic pain: a behavioural approach. Behav Ther 1997;28:271-84.], and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale [Sullivan MJ, Bishop SR, Pivik J. The pain catastrophizing scale: development and validation. Psychol Assess 1995;7:24-532.]. It was hypothesized that insecure attachment would be positively associated with reports of pain-related fear, hypervigilance, and catastrophizing and that the model of self dimension would be the attachment variable most strongly associated with these variables

  5. A comprehensive model of catastrophic optical-damage in broad-area laser diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, A. K.; Bertaska, R. K.; Jaspan, M. A.; Flusberg, A. M.; Swartz, S. D.; Knapczyk, M. T.; Petr, R.; Smilanski, I.; Jacob, J. H.

    2009-02-01

    The present model of formation and propagation of catastrophic optical-damage (COD), a random failure-mode in laser diodes, was formulated in 1974 and has remained substantially unchanged. We extend the model of COD phenomena, based on analytical studies involving EBIC (electron-beam induced current), STEM (scanning transmission-electron microscopy) and sophisticated optical-measurements. We have determined that a ring-cavity mode, whose presence has not been previously reported, significantly contributes to COD initiation and propagation in broad-area laser-diodes.

  6. Critical stress statistics and a fold catastrophe in intermittent crystal plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derlet, P. M.; Maaß, R.

    2016-09-01

    The statistics and origin of the first discrete plastic event in a one-dimensional dislocation dynamics simulation are studied. This is done via a linear stability analysis of the evolving dislocation configuration up to the onset of irreversible plasticity. It is found that, via a fold catastrophe, the dislocation configuration prior to loading directly determines the stress at which the plastic event occurs and that between one and two trigger dislocations are involved. The resulting irreversible plastic strain arising from the instability is found to be highly correlated with these triggering dislocations.

  7. Characteristics of Sexual Assault and Disclosure Among Women in Substance Abuse Recovery Homes

    OpenAIRE

    Hunter, Bronwyn A.; Robison, Emily; Leonard A. Jason

    2012-01-01

    Research suggests that many women experience some form of sexual assault in their lifetime and that women who engage in substance abuse often have a higher incidence of past sexual assault than women in the general population. Given the documented rates of sexual assault among women in recovery from substance use, it is important to explore community interventions that promote positive recovery from substance use and sexual assault. One model that promotes successful substance use recovery is...

  8. FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This is a search site for FEMA's Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC). A DRC is a readily accessible facility or mobile office set up by FEMA where applicants may go for...

  9. Recovery Action Mapping Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Recovery Action Mapping Tool is a web map that allows users to visually interact with and query actions that were developed to recover species listed under the...

  10. A Bumpy Recovery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN FENGYING

    2010-01-01

    @@ The world economic situation has been extremely complicated in 2010. This year saw fluctuating market confidence,changing commodity prices, imbalanced economic recovery, diverse economic policies, lingering trade protectionism, and fierce currency battles.

  11. Disaster Debris Recovery Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The US EPA Region 5 Disaster Debris Recovery Database includes public datasets of over 3,500 composting facilities, demolition contractors, haulers, transfer...

  12. RECOVERY OF RUTHENIUM VALUES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grummitt, W.E.; Hardwick, W.H.

    1961-01-01

    A process is given for the recovery of ruthenium from its aqueous solutions by oxidizing the ruthenium to the octavalent state and subsequently extracting the ruthenium into a halogen-substituted liquid paraffin.

  13. Recovery Audit Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Recovery Audit Programs mission is to identify and correct Medicare improper payments through the efficient detection and collection of overpayments made on...

  14. Impediments to recovery in New Orleans' Upper and Lower Ninth Ward: one year after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Rebekah; Bates, Lisa K; Smyth, Andrew

    2007-12-01

    In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, a rapid succession of plans put forward a host of recovery options for the Upper and Lower Ninth Ward in New Orleans. Much of the debate focused on catastrophic damage to residential structures and discussions of the capacity of low-income residents to repair their neighbourhoods. This article examines impediments to the current recovery process of the Upper and Lower Ninth Ward, reporting results of an October 2006 survey of 3,211 plots for structural damage, flood damage and post-storm recovery. By examining recovery one year after Hurricane Katrina, and by doing so in the light of flood and structural damage, it is possible to identify impediments to recovery that may disproportionately affect these neighbourhoods. This paper concludes with a discussion of how pre- and post-disaster inequalities have slowed recovery in the Lower Ninth Ward and of the implications this has for post-disaster recovery planning there and elsewhere. PMID:18028156

  15. Recovery of an isolated coral reef system following severe disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmour, James P; Smith, Luke D; Heyward, Andrew J; Baird, Andrew H; Pratchett, Morgan S

    2013-04-01

    Coral reef recovery from major disturbance is hypothesized to depend on the arrival of propagules from nearby undisturbed reefs. Therefore, reefs isolated by distance or current patterns are thought to be highly vulnerable to catastrophic disturbance. We found that on an isolated reef system in north Western Australia, coral cover increased from 9% to 44% within 12 years of a coral bleaching event, despite a 94% reduction in larval supply for 6 years after the bleaching. The initial increase in coral cover was the result of high rates of growth and survival of remnant colonies, followed by a rapid increase in juvenile recruitment as colonies matured. We show that isolated reefs can recover from major disturbance, and that the benefits of their isolation from chronic anthropogenic pressures can outweigh the costs of limited connectivity. PMID:23559247

  16. Good Gradings of Generalized Incidence Rings

    CERN Document Server

    Price, Kenneth L

    2011-01-01

    This inquiry is based on both the construction of generalized incidence rings due to Gene Abrams and the construction of good group gradings of incidence algebras due to Molli Jones. We provide conditions for a generalized incidence ring to be graded isomorphic to a subring of an incidence ring over a preorder. We also extend Jones's construction to good group gradings for incidence algebras over preorders with crosscuts of length one or two.

  17. Dissociative Tendencies and Traffic Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valle, Virginia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the relationship between dissociative experiences and road traffic incidents (crashes and traffic tickets in drivers (n=295 from Mar del Plata (Argentina city. A self-report questionnaire was applied to assess traffic crash involvement and sociodemographic variables. Dissociative tendencies were assessed by a modified version of the DES scale. To examine differences in DES scores tests of the difference of means were applied. Drivers who reported to be previously involved in traffic incidents obtained higher puntuations in the dissociative experiences scale than drivers who did not report such events. This result is observed for the total scale and for the three sub-scales (absorption, amnesia and depersonalization. However, differences appeared mainly for minor damage collisions. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of dissociative tendencies as a risk factor in road traffic safety.

  18. Targeting pain catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia using virtual reality exposure therapy: a proof-of-concept study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Linzette Deidrè; Louw, Quinette Abegail; Grimmer, Karen Anne; Meintjes, Ernesta

    2015-11-01

    [Purpose] Pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance to exercises among patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. Alteration of pain catastrophizing in this group is thus warranted. This study aimed to provide proof-of-concept of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. [Subjects and Methods] An exploratory, case-controlled study was conducted (fibromyalgia syndrome group and matched control group). Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to acquire neural correlates. The functional magnetic resonance imaging task consisted of two stimuli: active (exercise activity visuals) and passive (relaxing visuals). Structural images and blood-oxygenation-level-dependent contrasts were acquired for the conditions and compared within subjects/groups and between groups. Statistic images were thresholded using corrected clusters (determined by Z>2.3; level of significance: 0.05). [Results] Thirteen fibromyalgia syndrome subjects and nine healthy matched controls were included. The right inferior frontal gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus, right posterior cerebellum, left thalamus, and left supramarginal gyrus were activated in the fibromyalgia syndrome subjects. [Conclusion] The study results provide preliminary proof indicating that exposing patients with fibromyalgia syndrome to visuals of exercises elicits neurophysiological changes in functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophization and add to the current body of knowledge regarding the possibility of objectively identifying cognitive behavioral strategies like pain catastrophization. PMID:26696719

  19. Influence of depression, catastrophizing, anxiety, and resilience on postoperative pain at the first day after otolaryngological surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suffeda, Alexander; Meissner, Winfried; Rosendahl, Jenny; Guntinas-Lichius, Orlando

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim was to assess the association between objectified preoperative psychological factors and postoperative pain at the first day after otolaryngological surgery in accordance with other predictors of postoperative pain. Eighty-two (82) patients (59% male, median age 56 years) were included between January and May 2015. The psychological assessment the day before surgery included the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), pain catastrophizing scale (PCS), State-Trait Operation Anxiety (STOA) inventory, and the resilience scale (RS-13). On first postoperative day, patients were rated their pain using the questionnaires of the German-wide project Quality Improvement in Postoperative Pain Treatment (QUIPS) including a numeric rating scale (NRS, 0–10) for determination of patient's maximal pain. QUIPS allowed standardized assessment of patients’ characteristics, pain parameters, and outcome. The influence of preoperative and postoperative parameters on patients’ maximal postoperative pain was estimated by univariate and multivariate statistical analysis. The mean maximal pain was 3.2 ± 2.9. In univariate analysis, higher PHQ-9 score more than 4 (P = 0.010), higher STOA trait anxiety (P = 0.044), and higher STOA total score (P = 0.043) were associated to more postoperative pain. In multivariate analysis higher PHQ-9 score remained an independent predictor for severe pain (beta = 0.302; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.054–0.473; P = 0.014). When all parameters were included into multivariate analysis, 2 of all somatic, psychological, and treatment factors were associated with severe maximal pain: more depression (PHQ-9; beta = 0.256; 95% CI: 0.042–0.404; P = 0.017), and use of opioids in the recovery room (beta = 0.371; 95% CI: 0.108–0.481; P = 0.002). Otolaryngological surgery covers the spectrum from low to severe postoperative pain and is therefore a good model for pain management studies. A set of somatic and psychological parameters seems

  20. Incidence of respiratory distress syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To determine the incidence of respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) in hospital born babies. Subjects and Methods: All live born infants delivered at the hospital and who fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) were included in the study. Results: Ninety-four neonates developed RDS. Out of these, 88 (93.61%) were preterm and 06 (6.38%) were term infants. There was a male preponderance (65.95%). RDS was documented in 1.72% of total live births. 37.28% of preterm and 0.11% of term neonates born at the hospital. The incidence of RDS was 100% at 26 or less weeks of gestation, 57.14% at 32 weeks, and 3.70% at 36 weeks. The mortality with RDS was 41 (43.61%). Conclusion: RDS is the commonest cause of respiratory distress in the newborn, particularly, in preterm infants. It carries a high mortality rate and the incidence is more than that documented in the Western world. (author)

  1. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures. PMID:22967095

  2. Breakout and Tether-cutting Eruption Models Are Both Catastrophic (Sometimes)

    CERN Document Server

    Longcope, D W

    2013-01-01

    We present a simplified analytic model of a quadrupolar magnetic field and flux rope to model coronal mass ejections. The model magnetic field is two-dimensional, force-free and has current only on the axis of the flux rope and within two currents sheets. It is a generalization of previous models containing a single current sheet anchored to a bipolar flux distribution. Our new model can undergo quasi-static evolution due either to changes at the boundary or to magnetic reconnection at either current sheet. We find that all three kinds of evolution can lead to a catastrophe known as loss of equilibrium. Some equilibria can be driven to catastrophic instability either through reconnection at the lower current sheet, known as tether cutting, or through reconnection at the upper current sheet, known as breakout. Other equilibria can be destabilized through only one and not the other. Still others undergo no instability, but evolve increasingly rapidly in response to slow steady driving (ideal or reconnective). O...

  3. Exponential Orthogonality Catastrophe in Single-Particle and Many-Body Localized Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dong-Ling; Pixley, J. H.; Li, Xiaopeng

    We investigate the statistical orthogonality catastrophe (StOC) in single-particle and many-body localized systems by studying the response of the many-body ground state to a local quench. Using scaling arguments and exact numerical calculations, we establish that the StOC gives rise to a wave function overlap between the pre- and post-quench ground states that has an exponential decay with the system size, in sharp contrast to the well-known power law Anderson orthogonality catastrophe in metallic systems. This exponential decay arises from a statistical charge transfer process where a particle can be effectively ``transported'' to an arbitrary lattice site. We show that in a many-body localized phase, this non-local transport and the associated exponential StOC phenomenon persist in the presence of interactions. We study the possible experimental consequences of the exponential StOC on the Loschmidt echo and spectral function, establishing that this phenomenon might be observable in cold atomic experiments through Ramsey interference and radio-frequency spectroscopy. We thank S.-T. Wang, Z.-X. Gong, Y.-L. Wu, J. D. Sau, and Z. Ovadyahu for discussions. This work is supported by LPS-MPO-CMTC, JQI-NSF-PFC, and ARO-Atomtronics-MURI. The authors acknowledge the University of Maryland supercomputing resources.

  4. Sri Lanka : de la lutte contre le terrorisme à la catastrophe humanitaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delon Madavan

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available La volonté du gouvernement sri lankais d’en finir militairement avec le LTTE a abouti à une catastrophe humanitaire. L’armée et les Tigres se rendent coupables de crime de guerre et de crime contre l’humanité à l’encontre des civils tamouls, qui sont piégés dans la zone de combat ou enfermés dans des camps de détention. La perception différenciée de l’opération militaire selon les communautés nécessiterait la création d’un Tribunal Pénal International pour Sri Lanka.The will of Sri Lankan government to finish militarily with LTTE has ended with an humanitarian catastrophe. Both the Sri Lankan Army and the Tigers are guilty of international war and humanitarian crimes against Tamil civilians, who are trapped in the war zone or locked in detention camps. The different perceptions of the military operation according to the communities should need the creation of an International Penal Court for Sri Lanka

  5. Conditions of Agricultural Catastrophe Risks in China and Establishment of Agricultural Risks Protection Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural risks in our country have been introduced:firstly,disasters are multiple and frequently happened;secondly,widely affected and seriously suffered.Features of risks also are introduced:the first is the agricultural risk unit is large;the second is the agricultural risk is strongly regional;the third is the agricultural risk is universally half revival.The paper discusses the limits of the agricultural risks management,pointing out that in the management systems of agricultural risks,government finance is strongly burdened,compensations on the catastrophe is small in region,low in level.Based on the above analysis,the protection systems of agricultural risks have been constructed:the first is to establish the reassurance systems of agricultural risks;the second is to establish the risk funds of single agricultural item;the third is to transfer the catastrophe risks through stocks;the fourth is to construct multi leveled countermeasures of agricultural risks.

  6. Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Worthington Wilmer

    Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

  7. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: a butterfly catastrophe

    CERN Document Server

    García-Ramos, J E; Arias, J M; Freire, E

    2016-01-01

    Background: In the last few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in Nuclear Physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model, that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian, using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and to compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q-like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and ...

  8. Magnetoplasticity and the physics of earthquakes. Can a catastrophe be prevented?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The reasons for elastic energy accumulation in a lithospheric macroreactor — a seismic focus — are discussed. The nonlinear kinetics of the phenomena of an earthquake, a chain chemical explosion, and a nuclear explosion are analyzed. The transition from a stationary regime to an explosion in these three processes occurs as a critical phenomenon with critical parameters representing the concentrations of dislocations, active chemical centers, and neutrons, respectively. It is proposed to stimulate the slow relaxation of the elastic energy of the deformation stress of the seismic focus by low-frequency microwaves, which provide the accelerated motion of dislocations, reduce the yield limit, and increase plasticity. This phenomenon, known as magnetoplasticity in solid-state physics, can be used to keep the seismic focus far from a critical catastrophic regime by artificially stimulating its slow relaxation. The observed features of the influence of magnetic storms on earthquake dynamics are, in principle, consistent with the concept of the stimulated magnetoplasticity of the seismic focus as a means to avoid a catastrophe. (methodological notes)

  9. Future climate change spells catastrophe for Blanchard’s cricket frog, Acris blanchardi (Amphibia: Anura: Hylidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. McCallum

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may be one of the greatest environmental catastrophes encountered by modern human civilization. The potential influence of this global disaster on wildlife populations is subject to question. I interpolated how seasonal variation in weather patterns influences growth and reproduction in the Blanchard’s cricket frog (Acris blanchardi. Then I extrapolated the influence of future climate conditions on these life history characteristics using fuzzy regression. Fuzzy regression was an accurate predictor of growth and reproduction based on the climate conditions present from 1900–2007. It predicted that the climate projections expected for Arkansas by 2100 could reduce total reproductive investment in the Blanchard’s cricket frog by 33–94%. If these results reflect responses by other poikilotherms, climate change could induce major population declines in many species. Because poikilotherms represent the vast majority of vertebrates and significant ecosystem components, it is imperative that we implement strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and circumvent this possible catastrophe.

  10. Catastrophic emplacement of giant landslides aided by thermal decomposition: Heart Mountain, Wyoming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Thomas; Smith, Steven; Anders, Mark; Di Toro, Giulio; Nielsen, Stefan; Cavallo, Andrea; Beard, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    The Heart Mountain landslide of northwest Wyoming is the largest known sub-aerial landslide on Earth. During its emplacement more than 2,000 km3 of Paleozoic sedimentary and Eocene volcanic rocks slid >45 km on a basal detachment surface dipping 2° , leading to 100 years of debate regarding the emplacement mechanisms. Recently, emplacement by catastrophic sliding has been favored, but experimental evidence in support of this is lacking. Here we show in friction experiments on carbonate rocks taken from the landslide that at slip velocities of several meters per second CO2starts to degas due to thermal decomposition induced by flash heating after only a few hundred microns of slip. This is associated with the formation of vesicular degassing rims in dolomite clasts and a crystalline calcite cement that closely resemble microstructures in the basal slip zone of the natural landslide. Our experimental results are consistent with an emplacement mechanism whereby catastrophic slip was aided by carbonate decomposition and release of CO2, allowing the huge upper plate rock mass to slide over a 'cushion' of pressurized material.

  11. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  12. Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lindsey; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage. PMID:26358407

  13. A study to assess catastrophic household expenditure on childhood illness in an urban slum in Bijapur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patil Shailaja

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In this study, the various factors determining the out-of-pocket expenditure on child health care by households are discussed to answer the following questions: How much are households currently spending on child health care? Is there any role of socio-economic status of households on expenditure on child health care? What percentage of their income is spent on child health care and is it catastrophic? Materials and Methods: Four slums with a total a population of 7000 were selected for this study. Households where there is history of illness/ sickness in children under 5 years in last one month were included in the study. Results: There were a total of 218 episodes of child illness in the households. The household′s belonging to socio- economic class I and II had higher spending on child′s illness per episode as compared to households of socio- economic class III, IV, and V. Socioeconomic status was the key determinant of health care expenditure. Conclusion: In this study, it has been found that almost all the households suffered from catastrophic health expenditure.

  14. On the obstacles and way to assess the seismic catastrophe for high arch dams

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN; HouQun

    2007-01-01

    To prevent possible seismic catastrophe,naturally,its assessment is deeply concerned over in China as a series of arch dams of about 300 m high will be constructed in the severe seismic regions.In this paper the major obstacles to the seismic catastrophe assessment of high arch dams which focused on clearly defining the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) and reasonably selecting its site-specific seismic input parameters as well as quantitatively evaluating the limit state of dam-breach for designers are emphasized.Some breakthrough progress with pending problems is presented,such as to adopt more reasonable seismic input parameters based on seismic hazard evaluation of dam site; to develop model and method more fit in with the reality for non-linear seismic analysis of dam-foundation-reservoir system.The ideals of further improvement both in evaluating the MCE and defining the quantitative index of its performance objective are discussed,including how to use semi-empirical method of simulating strong ground motion near fault,how to solve the long-standing problem of stress singularity at dam heel,and how to investigate dynamic behaviors of fully-graded damconcrete through dynamic tests and 3-dimensional meso-mechanics analysis checked by CT technique.

  15. Catastrophic drought in East Asian monsoon region during Heinrich event 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Sun, Liguang; Chu, Yangxi; Xia, Zehui; Zhou, Xinying; Li, Xiangzhong; Chu, Zhuding; Liu, Xiangjun; Shao, Da; Wang, Yuhong

    2016-06-01

    Heinrich event 1 (H1) is an important millennial climate event during the last deglaciation. The substantial decreasing of monsoon strength in the East Asian monsoon region during the H1, as shown by stalagmite δ18O records, has been attributed to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is caused by the slowdown/collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, records from different Asian monsoon regions show various trends in precipitation changes during the H1, and these trends cannot be solely interpreted by the southward shift of the ITCZ. In the present study, we reconstructed time-series of East Asian monsoon precipitation between 25,000 and 10,000 a BP from floodplain sediments in the Huai River Basin. A white sediment layer, distinct from other layers in the profile, contains significantly low TOC, tree pollen and fern spore contents, and more positive δ13Corg, and it is deposited during the H1 event. The determined TOC, pollen and δ13Corg time-series, together with previously reported stalagmite δ18O, indicate a catastrophic (severe) drought in Jianghuai Region, one of the East Asian monsoon regions, during the H1. The La Niña condition in tropical Pacific likely also contributes to the catastrophic drought in Jianghuai Region and the precipitation variations in the Asian monsoon region during the H1.

  16. Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harré, Michael S.

    2013-02-01

    Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

  17. The Tricastin incident; L'incident du Tricastin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nifenecker, H.

    2008-07-01

    The author comments the incident which occurred on the Tricastin site in July 2008: the release of 30 cubic meters of a uranium-containing solution. First, he recalls the international nuclear event scale, outlines that the Tricastin is not a nuclear power plant, that uranium is more a chemical toxic product than a radiological toxic product. After having briefly recalled some dose threshold values, he discusses the presence of uranium in the environment, and states that the event is actually a non-event which has been in fact magnified by the media

  18. Forensic recovery within contaminated environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The Exhibit Handling System, operated by the Anti-Terrorist Branch, has evolved from experiences whilst dealing with long term domestic terrorism and the subsequent prosecution of the offenders. Stringent U.K. criminal law in regard to exhibits and forensic evidence required a strict system in order to provide continuity and integrity to every item that came into possession of the Police. This system also applies to items that are eventually deemed 'unused', as nearly all evidence is disclosed to the defence. I believe that if a system can withstand the close examination that British Criminal Law provides, it will probably be suitable in most countries. The system relies on each item being supplied with a documented trail of all persons who have had possession of it and who have opened the security packaging for examination purposes. In contaminated environments the initial process within the system has to be adapted in order that strict monitoring of the items can be carried out during the packaging process. It is also recognized that access to many exhibits will be heavily restricted and therefore protocols are in place to interrogate the evidence at the packaging stage in order to avoid unnecessary spread of contamination. The protocols are similar for both radiological and nuclear incidents as well as chemical and biological. Regardless of the type of incident the system can be adapted on the advice of the relevant scientific authority. In the U.K. for radiological and nuclear incidents that authority would be the A.W.E. Aldermaston. The integrity and continuity regime should be continued within laboratories which are conducting examinations of exhibits recovered. It is also important that Nuclear Forensic Laboratories do not overlook possibilities of traditional evidence, such as DNA, Fingerprints and fibre traces. Good record photography of items which are unlikely to be released by the laboratory is essential. Finally, cross-contamination has in

  19. Spatial Interaction Modeling to Identify Potentially Exposed Populations during RDD or IND Terrorism Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive no.5 (HSPD-5) Management of Domestic Incidents and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Planning Guidance for Protection and Recovery Following Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) and Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) Incidents underscore the need to delineate radiological emergency guidance applicable to remedial action and recovery following an RDD or IND incident. Rapid delineation of the population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from fallout during terrorist incidents involving RDDs or low-yield nuclear devices (≤ 20 KT) is necessary for effective medical response and incident management as part of the recovery process. This paper illustrates the application of spatial interaction models to allocate population data for a representative U.S. urban area (≅1.3M people; 1,612.27 km2 area) at a geographical scale relevant for accurately estimating risk given dose concentrations. Estimated total dose equivalents (TEDE) are calculated for isopleths moving away from the detonation point for typical release scenarios. Population is estimated within the TEDE zones using Euclidean distances between zip code polygon centroids generated in ArcGIS version 9.1 with distance decay determined by regression analysis to apportion origin-destination pairs to a population count and density matrix on a spatial basis for daytime and night-time release scenarios. (authors)

  20. Health service use, out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Kowal, Paul; Attermann, Jørn;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Healthcare financing through out-of-pocket payments and inequities in healthcare utilisation are common in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Given the dearth of pertinent studies on these issues among older people in LMICs, we investigated the determinants of health service use......, out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures among older people in one LMIC, India. METHODS: We accessed data from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 2414 people aged 65 years and older from the WHO's Study on global Ageing and adult health in India. Sociodemographic...... the number of health visits and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India was 7% (95% CI 6% to 8%). Older men and individuals with chronic diseases were at higher risk of catastrophic health expenditure, while access to health insurance...