WorldWideScience

Sample records for catastrophic disruption threshold

  1. Fragment Properties at the Catastrophic Disruption Threshold: The Effect of the Parent Body's Internal Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutzi, Martin; Michel, P.; Benz, W.; Richardson, D. C.

    2009-09-01

    We present numerical simulations of asteroid break-ups, including both the fragmentation of the parent body and the gravitational interactions between the fragments. The simulations are aimed at studying the so-called catastrophic disruption energy threshold Q*D, which results in the escape of half of the target's mass. Thanks to our recent implementation of a model of fragmentation of porous materials, we can characterize Q*D for both porous and non-porous targets with a wide range of diameters. We analyze the potential influence of porosity on the value of Q*D, and by computing the gravitational phase of the collision in the gravity regime, we characterize the collisional outcome in terms of the fragment size and ejection speed distributions. In the strength regime, which corresponds to target sizes below a few hundreds of meters, we find that porous targets are more difficult to disrupt than non-porous ones. In the gravity regime, one cannot say that non-porous targets are systematically easier or more difficult to disrupt than porous ones, as the outcome also depends on the assumed strengths values. We propose some power-law relationships between Q*D and target's size that can be used in collisional evolution models. The resulting fragment size distributions can be reasonably fitted by a power-law whose exponent ranges between -2.2 and -2.7 for all target diameters in both cases and independently on the impact velocity, at least in the small range investigated between 3 and 5 km/s. This work was supported by the ESA Advanced Concepts Team (Ariadna contract 20782/07 NEO Encounter 2029). M.J. and W.B. acknowledge support from the Swiss National Science Foundation. P.M. acknowledges the support of the French PNP and OPV and from CNRS-JSPS 2008-2009. D.C.R. acknowledges support from the grant NNX08AM39G (NASA).

  2. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  3. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  4. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  5. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  6. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-03-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  7. Foster placement disruptions associated with problem behavior: mitigating a threshold effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Philip A; Stoolmiller, Mike; Mannering, Anne M; Takahashi, Aiko; Chamberlain, Patricia

    2011-08-01

    Placement disruptions have adverse effects on foster children. Identifying reliable predictors of placement disruptions might assist in the allocation of services to prevent disruptions. There were two objectives in this study: (a) to replicate a prior finding that the number of daily child problem behaviors at entry into a new foster home predicts subsequent placement disruptions in foster preschoolers and (b) to determine whether this association is mitigated by a treatment foster care intervention. Problem behavior and placement disruptions were examined in 60 children in regular foster care (age range = 3.10-5.91 years [M = 4.34, SD = 0.83], 58.3% male, 93.4% Caucasian) and 57 children in a treatment foster care program (age range = 3.01-6.78 years [M = 4.54, SD = 0.86], 49.1% male, 82.5% Caucasian). Using the Parent Daily Report Checklist (Chamberlain & Reid, 1987), a brief telephone interview, foster caregivers reported problem behavior 6 times over 3 months. Placement disruptions were tracked over 12 months. The regular foster care children with 5 or fewer problem behaviors were at low risk for disruption, but their risk increased 10% for each additional behavior (p = .013). The intervention appeared to mitigate this "threshold effect"; number of problem behaviors did not predict risk of placement disruption in the treatment foster care group (p = .63). These findings replicate previous evidence linking child problem behavior to placement disruptions and further highlight the need for early preventative interventions.

  8. Dynamical Evolution of the Debris Disk after a Satellite Catastrophic Disruption around Saturn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyodo, Ryuki [Earth-Life Science Institute/Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Tokyo (Japan); Charnoz, Sébastien [Institut de Physique du Globe, 75005 Paris (France)

    2017-07-01

    The hypothesis of the recent origin of Saturn’s rings and its midsized moons is actively debated. It was suggested that a proto-Rhea and a proto-Dione might have collided recently, giving birth to the modern system of midsized moons. It has also been suggested that the rapid viscous spreading of the debris may have implanted mass inside Saturn’s Roche limit, giving birth to its modern ring system. However, this scenario has only been investigated in a very simplified way for the moment. This paper investigates it in detail to assess its plausibility by using N -body simulations and analytical arguments. When the debris disk is dominated by its largest remnant, N -body simulations show that the system quickly reaccretes into a single satellite without significant spreading. On the other hand, if the disk is composed of small particles, analytical arguments suggest that the disk experiences dynamical evolutions in three steps. The disk starts significantly excited after the impact and collisional damping dominates over the viscous spreading. After the system flattens, the system can become gravitationally unstable when particles are smaller than ∼100 m. However, the particles grow faster than spreading. Then, the system becomes gravitationally stable again and accretion continues at a slower pace, but spreading is inhibited. Therefore, the debris is expected to reaccrete into several large bodies. In conclusion, our results show that such a scenario may not form today’s ring system. In contrast, our results suggest that today’s midsized moons are likely reaccreted from such a catastrophic event.

  9. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... increased DNA replication stress....

  10. Disruption?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2016-01-01

    This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray......This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray...

  11. Menstrual Disruption with Exercise Is Not Linked to an Energy Availability Threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Jay L; DE Souza, Mary Jane; Wagstaff, David A; Williams, Nancy I

    2018-03-01

    Chronic reductions in energy availability (EA) suppress reproductive function. A particular calculation of EA quantifies the dietary energy remaining after exercise for all physiological functions. Reductions in luteinizing hormone pulse frequency have been demonstrated when EA using this calculation is <30 kcal·kg·fat-free mass (ffm)·d. We determined whether menstrual disturbances (MD) are induced when EA is <30 kcal·kg ffm·d. Thirty-five sedentary, ovulatory women age 18 to 24 yr (weight, 59.0 ± 0.8 kg; body mass index, 21.8 ± 0.4 kg·m) completed a diet and exercise intervention over three menstrual cycles. Participants were randomized to groups that varied in the magnitude of negative energy balance created by the combination of exercise and energy restriction. Menstrual disturbances were determined using daily urinary estrone-1-glucuronide and pregnanediol glucuronide, midcycle luteinizing hormone, and menstrual calendars. In a secondary analysis, we calculated EA from energy balance data and tested the association of EA with MD. A generalized linear mixed-effects model showed that the likelihood of a MD decreased by 9% for each unit increase in EA (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.98; P = 0.010). No specific value of EA emerged as a threshold below which MD were induced. When participants were partitioned into EA tertile groups (low EA, 23.4-34.1; n = 11; moderate EA, 34.9-40.7; n = 12, and high EA, 41.2-50.1; n = 12 [kcal·kg ffm·d]), estrone-1-glucuronide (P < 0.001), pregnanediol glucuronide (P < 0.001), and luteal phase length (P = 0.031) decreased significantly, independent of tertile. These findings do not support that a threshold of EA exists below which MD are induced but do suggest that MD increase linearly as EA decreases. Menstrual disturbances can likely be prevented by monitoring EA using a simplified assessment of metabolic status.

  12. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man.......The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  13. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    of the Nakba in 2008 and clashes between the police and young Palestinians in 2006, the article demonstrates how Palestinians in Denmark seek to reverse the reverse myth of 1948 by seizing contemporary catastrophes to enact not only past and present Nakbas, but also potential futures. The article concludes...

  14. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  15. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  16. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  17. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  18. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  19. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  20. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  1. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  2. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed.......It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  3. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  4. Clues from stellar catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rimoldi, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    This thesis uses catastrophic stellar events (supernovae and stellar collisions) to investigate different aspects of their environment. The first part of the thesis examines what happens to supernova remnants near supermassive black holes like the one in the Milky Way Galaxy. To do so, a technique

  5. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  6. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  7. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  8. Vivre la catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Favreau, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Le mot catastrophe a ceci d’intéressant et de pratique que l’on peut l’employer pour désigner un ensemble de situations hétéroclites, ayant pour point commun un caractère dit sensationnel, médiatiquement porteur et pour autant sans commune mesure. Une catastrophe pour les uns peut ne pas en être une pour les autres. On a ainsi pu lire dans la presse que le réchauffement climatique met en péril des populations entières que l’on nomme déjà les futurs « réfugiés climatiques » en rendant leur mil...

  9. Catastrophe climatique irréversible et politique de l'effet de serre

    OpenAIRE

    Sébastien ROUILLON

    2000-01-01

    This paper considers the issue of a catastrophic environmental collapse and the way one should deal with it. In the model used here, one faces the choice to cross or not a critical threshold of pollution, which consequences are a definitive destruction of some environmental characteristic. The introduced decision-rule compares the economic cost of the emission constraint, designed to avoid the catastrophe, to the damage of the catastrophic event. Depending on the order between this alternativ...

  10. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  11. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  12. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  13. RPF101, a new capsaicin-like analogue, disrupts the microtubule network accompanied by arrest in the G2/M phase, inducing apoptosis and mitotic catastrophe in the MCF-7 breast cancer cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sá-Júnior, Paulo Luiz de [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Pasqualoto, Kerly Fernanda Mesquita [Biochemistry and Biophysical Laboratory, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Ferreira, Adilson Kleber [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Tavares, Maurício Temotheo; Damião, Mariana Celestina Frojuello Costa Bernstorff [Department of Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Prof. Lineu Prestes Avenue, 580, Postal Code: 05508-000, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Azevedo, Ricardo Alexandre de [Biochemistry and Biophysical Laboratory, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Câmara, Diana Aparecida Dias; Pereira, Alexandre; Madeiro de Souza, Dener [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Parise Filho, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.parise@usp.br [Department of Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Prof. Lineu Prestes Avenue, 580, Postal Code: 05508-000, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2013-02-01

    Breast cancer is the world's leading cause of death among women. This situation imposes an urgent development of more selective and less toxic agents. The use of natural molecular fingerprints as sources for new bioactive chemical entities has proven to be a quite promising and efficient method. Capsaicin, which is the primary pungent compound in red peppers, was reported to selectively inhibit the growth of a variety tumor cell lines. Here, we report for the first time a novel synthetic capsaicin-like analogue, RPF101, which presents a high antitumor activity on MCF-7 cell line, inducing arrest of the cell cycle at the G2/M phase through a disruption of the microtubule network. Furthermore, it causes cellular morphologic changes characteristic of apoptosis and a decrease of Δψm. Molecular modeling studies corroborated the biological findings and suggested that RPF101, besides being a more reactive molecule towards its target, may also present a better pharmacokinetic profile than capsaicin. All these findings support the fact that RPF101 is a promising anticancer agent. -- Highlights: ► We report for the first time that RPF101 possesses anticancer properties. ► RPF101 induces apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. ► RPF 101 decreases mitochondrial potential and induces DNA fragmentation.

  14. RPF101, a new capsaicin-like analogue, disrupts the microtubule network accompanied by arrest in the G2/M phase, inducing apoptosis and mitotic catastrophe in the MCF-7 breast cancer cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sá-Júnior, Paulo Luiz de; Pasqualoto, Kerly Fernanda Mesquita; Ferreira, Adilson Kleber; Tavares, Maurício Temotheo; Damião, Mariana Celestina Frojuello Costa Bernstorff; Azevedo, Ricardo Alexandre de; Câmara, Diana Aparecida Dias; Pereira, Alexandre; Madeiro de Souza, Dener; Parise Filho, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the world's leading cause of death among women. This situation imposes an urgent development of more selective and less toxic agents. The use of natural molecular fingerprints as sources for new bioactive chemical entities has proven to be a quite promising and efficient method. Capsaicin, which is the primary pungent compound in red peppers, was reported to selectively inhibit the growth of a variety tumor cell lines. Here, we report for the first time a novel synthetic capsaicin-like analogue, RPF101, which presents a high antitumor activity on MCF-7 cell line, inducing arrest of the cell cycle at the G2/M phase through a disruption of the microtubule network. Furthermore, it causes cellular morphologic changes characteristic of apoptosis and a decrease of Δψm. Molecular modeling studies corroborated the biological findings and suggested that RPF101, besides being a more reactive molecule towards its target, may also present a better pharmacokinetic profile than capsaicin. All these findings support the fact that RPF101 is a promising anticancer agent. -- Highlights: ► We report for the first time that RPF101 possesses anticancer properties. ► RPF101 induces apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. ► RPF 101 decreases mitochondrial potential and induces DNA fragmentation.

  15. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  16. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  17. [Manfredonia (Southern Italy): a continuous catastrophe, newfound citizenship, and removal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malavasi, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This article concerns the history of Manfredonia (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), linked to the petrochemical industry owned by Eni (from 1960s to 1990s). The city suffered not only an important accident occurred in 1976 with arsenic dissemination, but also a continuous catastrophe. In the 1980s, the popular movement contributed to an improved citizenship, but also to rifts and conflicts. The petrochemical impact on community determined disruption in domestic and social relationships, divided memory, and removal.

  18. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  19. [Abdominal catastrophe--surgeon's view].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyhnánek, F

    2010-07-01

    Abdominal catastrophe is a serious clinical condition, usually being a complication arising during treatment of intraabdominal nontraumatic disorders or abdominal injuries. Most commonly, inflamation- secondary peritonitis, is concerned. Abdominal catastrophe also includes secondary signs of sepsis, abdominal compartment syndrome and enterocutaneous fistules. Most septic abdominal disorders which show signs of abdominal catastrophy, require surgical intervention and reinterventions--planned or "on demand" laparotomies. During the postoperative period, the patient requires intensive care management, including steps taken to stabilize his/hers condition, management of sepsis and metabolic and nutritional support measures, as well as adequate indication for reoperations. New technologies aimed at prevention of complications in laparostomies and to improve conditions for final laparotomy closure are used in phase procedures for surgical management of intraabdominal infections. Despite the new technologies, abdominal catastrophe has higher morbidity and lethality risk rates.

  20. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  1. CATASTROPHIC ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME IN LEPROSY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Vaibhav Chewoolkar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to mesenteric venous thrombosis as a part of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and later on succumbed. We thereby wish to highlight the need for early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of this potentially fatal condition in patients with infections.

  2. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  3. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  4. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

  5. Catastrophic fires in Russian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. I. Sukhinin; D. J. McRae; B. J. Stocks; S. G. Conard; WeiMin Hao; A. J. Soja; D. Cahoon

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the contribution of catastrophic fires to the total burned area and the amount of tree mortality in Russia since the 1970’s. Such fires occurred in the central regions of European Russia (1972, 1976, 1989, 2002, 2010), Khabarovsk krai (1976, 1988, 1998), Amur region (1997-2002), Republics of Yakutia and Tuva (2002), Magadan and Kamchatka oblast (1984, 2001...

  6. Investigating Disruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard, Stine Schmieg; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

    This book shares knowledge collected from 2015 and onward within the Consortium for Digital Disruption anchored at Aalborg University (www.dd.aau.dk). Evidenced by this publication, the field of disruptive innovation research has gone through several stages of operationalizing the theory. In recent...... years, researchers are increasingly looking back towards the origins of the theory in attempts to cure it from its most obvious flaws. This is especially true for the use of the theory in making predictions about future disruptions. In order to continue to develop a valuable theory of disruption, we...... find it useful to first review what the theory of disruptive innovation initially was, how it has developed, and where we are now. A cross section of disruptive innovation literature has been reviewed in order to form a general foundation from which we might better understand the changing world...

  7. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  8. Disruption model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, J.G.; Bronner, G.

    1982-07-01

    Calculations of disruption time and energy dissipation have been obtained by simulating the plasma as an electrical conducting loop that varies in resistivity, current density, major radius. The calculations provide results which are in good agreement with experimental observations. It is believed that this approach allows engineering designs for disruptions to be completed in large tokamaks such as INTOR or FED

  9. A Catastrophe in Quantum Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Ignatovich, V K

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed.

  10. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  11. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  12. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  13. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  14. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  15. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  16. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  17. Crise, catastrophe, risque et adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Yiou , Pascal; Jézéquel , Aglae

    2017-01-01

    International audience; L'histoire de la Terre est jalonnée de crises et de catastrophes environnementales, qui ont conduit à la disparition d'espèces et de sociétés, et parfois à l'émergence de nouveaux systèmes. Nous ne reviendrons pas sur ces événements géologiques ou historiques, mais nous concentrons sur le changement climatique en cours et ses événements extrêmes. Du fait de l'expansion démographique, la surface habitable de la Terre est de plus en plus densément peuplée, ce qui augment...

  18. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  19. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  20. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  1. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  2. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  3. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  4. Digital Disruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

    Disruption var frem til slutningen af 2016 i Danmark et ord, som kun få kendte og endnu færre havde en holdning til. Nu er der imidlertid sat fokus på begrebet fra allerhøjeste nationale sted, idet regeringen har taget initiativ til nedsættelse af det, Statsminister Lars Løkke Rasmussen indtil...... videre kalder et ”disruption-råd”. Faktisk er rådet skrevet ind i 2016 regeringsgrundlaget for VLK-regeringen. Disruption af organisationer er ikke et nyt fænomen; men hastigheden, hvormed det sker, er stadig accelererende. Årsagen er den globale mega-trend: Digitalisering. Og derfor er specielt digital...... disruption en sag for os alle. Derfor er det også for vigtigt et emne til, at det udelukkende behandles i elitære videnskabelige, industrielle og politiske kredse. Der er behov for en bredere samfundsdebat; og bogen er et forskningsbaseret bidrag ind i denne debat. For a kvalificere debatten om disruption i...

  5. Politisk disruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tække, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på.......Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på....

  6. Disrupting Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cox, Geoff; Bazzichelli, Tatiana

    Disruptive Business explores some of the interconnections between art, activism and the business concept of disruptive innovation. With a backdrop of the crisis of financial capitalism, austerity cuts in the cultural sphere, the idea is to focus on potential art strategies in relation to a broken...... economy. In a perverse way, we ask whether this presents new opportunities for cultural producers to achieve more autonomy over their production process. If it is indeed possible, or desirable, what alternative business models emerge? The book is concerned broadly with business as material for reinvention...

  7. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  8. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

  9. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  10. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  11. Cosmic Impacts, Cosmic Catastrophes. Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    Examined is the science of catastrophism and its role in planetary and earth science. The effects of impacts on earth with extraterrestrial origins are discussed. Perspectives on the age and dynamics of the earth's crust are presented. (CW)

  12. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  13. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  14. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-04-01

    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  15. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  16. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

    2011-01-04

    The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a class is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between

  17. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montero Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. Results By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. Conclusions The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting

  18. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  19. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  20. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  1. Sustainable Disruptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis, Silje Alberthe Kamille; Kjær, Lykke Bloch

    2016-01-01

    Since 2012 the Sustainable Disruptions (SD) project at the Laboratory for Sustainability at Design School Kolding (DK) has developed and tested a set of design thinking tools, specifically targeting the barriers to economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable business development...... invested in the issue of sustainable business development, in particular the leaders and employees of SMEs, but also to design education seeking new ways to consciously handle and teach the complexity inherent in sustainable transformation. Findings indicate that the SD design thinking approach contributes....... The tools have been applied in practice in collaboration with 11 small and medium sized companies (SMEs). The study investigates these approaches to further understand how design thinking can contribute to sustainable transition in a business context. The study and the findings are relevant to organizations...

  2. Disrupted Disclosure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krause Hansen, Hans; Uldam, Julie

    , and onongoing research in the extractive industries and social movements, this work-in-progress sets outto examine (a) why and how transparency has been constructed and mobilized in recentinternational attempts to regulate the extractive industries, specifically oil and gas companies; (b)how companies’ normal...... appearances become challenged through disruptive disclosures in mediaenvironments characterized by multiple levels of visibility, with companies both observing andbeing observed by civil society groups that criticize them; (c) why and how the mobilization aroundtransparency and ensuing practices......While projects of governance by transparency have become widespread over the past decades, theyare usually investigated and theorized in isolation from the wider field of visibility and surveillancein which they are embedded. Building on theories of governance, visibility and surveillance...

  3. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  4. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  5. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  6. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...... of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...

  7. Medicare Beneficiaries Face Growing Out-Of-Pocket Burden For Specialty Drugs While In Catastrophic Coverage Phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trish, Erin; Xu, Jianhui; Joyce, Geoffrey

    2016-09-01

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) includes provisions to reduce Medicare beneficiaries' out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs by gradually closing the coverage gap between the initial coverage limit and the catastrophic coverage threshold (known as the doughnut hole) beginning in 2011. However, Medicare beneficiaries who take specialty pharmaceuticals could still face a large out-of-pocket burden because of uncapped cost sharing in the catastrophic coverage phase. Using 2008-12 pharmacy claims data from a 20 percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries, we analyzed trends in total and out-of-pocket spending among Medicare beneficiaries who take at least one high-cost specialty drug from the top eight specialty drug classes in terms of spending. Annual total drug spending per specialty drug user studied increased considerably during the study period, from $18,335 to $33,301, and the proportion of expenditures incurred while in the catastrophic coverage phase increased from 70 percent to 80 percent. We observed a 26 percent decrease in mean annual out-of-pocket expenditures incurred below the catastrophic coverage threshold, likely attributable to the ACA's doughnut hole cost-sharing reductions, but increases in mean annual out-of-pocket expenditures incurred while in the catastrophic coverage phase offset these reductions almost entirely. Policy makers should consider implementing limits on patients' out-of-pocket burden. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  8. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

    2015-07-01

    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  9. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  10. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  12. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic

  13. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  14. Preventing catastrophes in spatially extended systems through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Further, we outline our analysis on the possible mechanisms behind the occurrence of catastrophes and how the ... The equation has also been utilized in seismology to model the two plates in a geological fault [4]. .... now the central results obtained from our extensive numerical simulations [7]. 3. Spatiotemporal patterns in ...

  15. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  16. What Is the Price of Catastrophic Wildfire?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; Thomas P. Holmes

    2001-01-01

    We modeled and analyzed the economic impacts of the six weeks of large, catastrophic wild-fires in northeastern Florida in June and July 1998, among Florida's most devastating in recent history. The result of the unusually strong El Níño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1998, the Florida wildfires produced economic impacts of at least $600 million, similar in...

  17. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    ... Management Agency, United States Department of Agriculture, Beacon Facility, Stop 0812, Room 421, P.O. Box... 12866 The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has determined that this rule is not-significant for the... is definite, and whether ACRSI will be implemented before the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  18. Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Center Pacientes y Cuidadores Hormones and Health The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) Steroid and Hormone ... Hormones and Health › Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) EDCs Myth vs. ...

  19. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-22

    Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

  20. Personality and Temperament Correlates of Pain Catastrophizing in Young Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Anja; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of…

  1. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  2. Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2004-01-01

    Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

  3. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  4. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  5. Synchronizing Federal Operational Planning for National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    overwhelm human capacity. A developing genre is developing in the literature that advocates the shift from interagency planning to multi-sector...catastrophe absorbed these resources as if there was no end; everyone watched the response effort on TV and witnessed the level of confusion and...in Katrina. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38 (4), 692–714. Bongar, B., Brown, L. M., Beutler, L. E., Breckenridge, J. N., & Zimbardo, P. G

  6. Catastrophe risks: the case of seisms

    OpenAIRE

    Kast, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Catastrophes and risks have had a great influence on the evolution of human development. We analyze behaviors in front of risks, then we consider some basic principles that have guided private and public behaviors. Managing risks has become a specialty for finance and insurance, but they are not the only institutions that allow to confront them. We conclude on an example of how public funds, private insurance and reinsurance companies can work together and use financial markets...

  7. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  8. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  9. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  10. Granular motions near the threshold of entrainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, athanasios-Theodosios

    2016-04-01

    Our society is continuously impacted by significant weather events many times resulting in catastrophes that interrupt our normal way of life. In the context of climate change and increasing urbanisation these "extreme" hydrologic events are intensified both in magnitude and frequency, inducing costs of the order of billions of pounds. The vast majority of such costs and impacts (even more to developed societies) are due to water related catastrophes such as the geomorphic action of flowing water (including scouring of critical infrastructure, bed and bank destabilisation) and flooding. New tools and radically novel concepts are in need, to enable our society becoming more resilient. This presentation, emphasises the utility of inertial sensors in gaining new insights on the interaction of flow hydrodynamics with the granular surface at the particle scale and for near threshold flow conditions. In particular, new designs of the "smart-sphere" device are discussed with focus on the purpose specific sets of flume experiments, designed to identify the exact response of the particle resting at the bed surface for various below, near and above threshold flow conditions. New sets of measurements are presented for particle entrainment from a Lagrangian viewpoint. Further to finding direct application in addressing real world challenges in the water sector, it is shown that such novel sensor systems can also help the research community (both experimentalists and computational modellers) gain a better insight on the underlying processes governing granular dynamics.

  11. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  12. Threshold quantum cryptography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokunaga, Yuuki; Okamoto, Tatsuaki; Imoto, Nobuyuki

    2005-01-01

    We present the concept of threshold collaborative unitary transformation or threshold quantum cryptography, which is a kind of quantum version of threshold cryptography. Threshold quantum cryptography states that classical shared secrets are distributed to several parties and a subset of them, whose number is greater than a threshold, collaborates to compute a quantum cryptographic function, while keeping each share secretly inside each party. The shared secrets are reusable if no cheating is detected. As a concrete example of this concept, we show a distributed protocol (with threshold) of conjugate coding

  13. New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareev, Fangil

    2008-03-01

    We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

  14. Bodily illusions disrupt tactile sensations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amour, Sarah; Pritchett, Lisa M; Harris, Laurence R

    2015-02-01

    To accurately interpret tactile information, the brain needs to have an accurate representation of the body to which to refer the sensations. Despite this, body representation has only recently been incorporated into the study of tactile perception. Here, we investigate whether distortions of body representation affect tactile sensations. We perceptually altered the length of the arm and the width of the waist using a tendon vibration illusion and measured spatial acuity and sensitivity. Surprisingly, we found reduction in both tactile acuity and sensitivity thresholds when the arm or waist was perceptually altered, which indicates a general disruption of low-level tactile processing. We postulate that the disruptive changes correspond to the preliminary stage as the body representation starts to change and may give new insights into sensory processing in people with long-term or sudden abnormal body representation such as are found in eating disorders or following amputation.

  15. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  16. Catastrophizing and poor sleep quality in early adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noone, Deirdre M; Willis, Thomas A; Cox, Jenny; Harkness, Frances; Ogilvie, Jayne; Forbes, Erika; Sterr, Annette; Gregory, Alice M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness has been investigated in adults and children, but little is known about adolescents. This article aimed to (a) investigate whether early adolescent girls catastrophized about consequences of sleeplessness, (b) describe topics in catastrophizing sequences, (c) examine the association between sleep quality and catastrophizing, and (d) assess whether puberty moderated this association. Girls (n = 115) between 11 and 12 years old completed adapted versions of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Pubertal Developmental Scale, and the Catastrophizing Interview. Twenty-four (21%) participants produced catastrophizing sequences, including concerns about school and mood. Sleep quality was associated with catastrophizing (β = 0.19, p = .042); however, puberty did not moderate this association (β = 0.15, p = .126). Findings highlight the importance of sleep-related cognitions in adolescent girls.

  17. Theory of threshold phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel

    2002-01-01

    Theory of Threshold Phenomena in Quantum Scattering is developed in terms of Reduced Scattering Matrix. Relationships of different types of threshold anomalies both to nuclear reaction mechanisms and to nuclear reaction models are established. Magnitude of threshold effect is related to spectroscopic factor of zero-energy neutron state. The Theory of Threshold Phenomena, based on Reduced Scattering Matrix, does establish relationships between different types of threshold effects and nuclear reaction mechanisms: the cusp and non-resonant potential scattering, s-wave threshold anomaly and compound nucleus resonant scattering, p-wave anomaly and quasi-resonant scattering. A threshold anomaly related to resonant or quasi resonant scattering is enhanced provided the neutron threshold state has large spectroscopic amplitude. The Theory contains, as limit cases, Cusp Theories and also results of different nuclear reactions models as Charge Exchange, Weak Coupling, Bohr and Hauser-Feshbach models. (author)

  18. Assessing the economic burden of illness for tuberculosis patients in Benin: determinants and consequences of catastrophic health expenditures and inequities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laokri, Samia; Dramaix-Wilmet, Michèle; Kassa, Ferdinand; Anagonou, Séverin; Dujardin, Bruno

    2014-10-01

    To inform policy-making, we measured the risk, causes and consequences of catastrophic expenditures for tuberculosis and investigated potential inequities. Between August 2008 and February 2009, a cross-sectional study was conducted among all (245) smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of six health districts from southern Benin. A standardised survey questionnaire covered the period of time elapsing from onset of tuberculosis symptoms to completion of treatment. Total direct cost exceeding the conventional 10% threshold of annual income was defined as catastrophic and used as principal outcome in a multivariable logistic regression. A sensitivity analysis was performed while varying the thresholds. A pure gradient of direct costs of tuberculosis in relation to income was observed. Incidence (78.1%) and intensity (14.8%) of catastrophic expenditure were high; varying thresholds was insensitive to the intensity. Incurring catastrophic expenditure was independently associated with lower- and middle-income quintiles (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 36.2, 95% CI [12.3-106.3] and aOR = 6.4 [2.8-14.6]), adverse pre-diagnosis stage (aOR = 5.4 [2.2-13.3]) and less education (aOR = 4.1[1.9-8.7]). Households incurred important days lost due to TB, indebtedness (37.1%), dissaving (51.0%) and other coping strategies (52.7%). Catastrophic direct costs and substantial indirect and coping costs may persist under the 'free' tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment strategy, as well as inequities in financial hardship. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  20. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  1. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  2. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals : Stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that

  3. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  4. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  5. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  6. Iranian Household Financial Protection against Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadam, M Nekoei; Banshi, M; Javar, M Akbari; Amiresmaili, M; Ganjavi, S

    2012-01-01

    Background: Protecting households against financial risks is one of objectives of any health system. In this regard, Iran’s fourth five year developmental plan act in its 90th article, articulated decreasing household’s exposure to catastrophic health expenditure to one percent. Hence, this study aimed to measure percentage of Iranian households exposed to catastrophic health expenditures and to explore its determinants. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was carried out retrospectively. Households whose financial contributions to the health system exceeded 40% of disposable income were considered as exposed to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare expenditures were examined by logistic regression and chi-square test. Results: Of 39,088 households, 80 were excluded due to absence of food expenditures. 2.8% of households were exposed to catastrophic health expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare were utilizing ambulatory, hospital, and drug addiction cessation services as well as consuming pharmaceuticals. Socioeconomics characteristics such as health insurance coverage, household size, and economic status were other determinants of exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Conclusion: Iranian health system has not achieved the objective of reducing catastrophic healthcare expenditure to one percent. Inefficient health insurance coverage, different fee schedules practiced by private and public providers, failure of referral system are considered as probable barriers toward decreasing households’ exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. PMID:23193508

  7. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1980-08-01

    An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

  8. Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Li, Yangfan; Kappas, Martin; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell

    2018-02-08

    Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes ("Less resilient" or "More resilient") were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in "Less resilient" system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Resistive Threshold Logic

    OpenAIRE

    James, A. P.; Francis, L. R. V. J.; Kumar, D.

    2013-01-01

    We report a resistance based threshold logic family useful for mimicking brain like large variable logic functions in VLSI. A universal Boolean logic cell based on an analog resistive divider and threshold logic circuit is presented. The resistive divider is implemented using memristors and provides output voltage as a summation of weighted product of input voltages. The output of resistive divider is converted into a binary value by a threshold operation implemented by CMOS inverter and/or O...

  10. Threshold Signature Schemes Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Victorovna Beresneva

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to an investigation of threshold signature schemes. The systematization of the threshold signature schemes was done, cryptographic constructions based on interpolation Lagrange polynomial, elliptic curves and bilinear pairings were examined. Different methods of generation and verification of threshold signatures were explored, the availability of practical usage of threshold schemes in mobile agents, Internet banking and e-currency was shown. The topics of further investigation were given and it could reduce a level of counterfeit electronic documents signed by a group of users.

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: The current management approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-04-01

    The current recommendation for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) management is the standard triple therapy with anticoagulation (AC), glucocorticoids (GCs), plasma exchange (PE), and/or intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs). Of note, only AC has a significant effect on the prognosis of these patients. However, from the experimental or basic point of view, there is only indirect evidence to advocate the use of these immunomodulatory therapies (GC, PE, and IVIG) in CAPS. Recently, there have been reports of severe or refractory CAPS patients treated with the monoclonal antibodies rituximab and eculizumab. The first blocks CD20, a surface protein expressed on the cytoplasmic membrane of B cells, and decreases the generation of pathogenic autoantibodies such as antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. The second binds with high affinity to C5 complement protein, inhibiting its cleavage and thus preventing the generation of C5b-C9 complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    individual tubulin dimers, an ignored. In this cap model, GTP hydrolysis is assumed to be stochastic and uncoupled to microtubule growth. Different rates of hydrolysis are assumed for GTP in the cap's interior and for GTP at its boundary with hydrolyzed parts of the microtubule. Expectation values...... and probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... of microtubule growth before dilution. The GTP content of microtubules is found and its rare of hydrolysis is determined under the circumstances created in an experiment designed to measure this GTP content. It is concluded that this experiment's failure to register any GTP content is consistent with the model...

  13. The asteroids as outcomes of catastrophic collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farinella, P. (Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Merate, Italy); Paolicchi, P.

    1982-12-01

    The role of catastrophic collisions in the evoloution of the asteroids is discussed in detail, employing extrapolations of experimental results on the outcome of high velocity-impacts. The probability of impacts with a given projectile-to-target mass ratio for asteroids of different sizes is derived, taking into account different mass distributions of the asteroid population at the beginning of the collision process. The extrapolations show that collisional breakup against solid-state cohesions must be a widespread process for asteroids. The influence of self-gravitation and transfer of angular momentum during collision is shown to depend strongly on the traget size, resulting in a variety of possible outcomes in the intermediate size range. Comparason of the theoretical results with observations of asteroid rotations and shapes yields favorable results.

  14. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  15. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso

    2016-12-01

    To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. Descrever a magnitude do gasto catastrófico em medicamentos no Brasil segundo região, tamanho das famílias e composição familiar em termos de moradores em situação de dependência. Utilizados dados de inqu

  16. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  17. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  18. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle

  19. Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bixenstine, Paul J; Shore, Andrew D; Mehtsun, Winta T; Ibrahim, Andrew M; Freischlag, Julie A; Makary, Martin A

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts, $1 million or greater, greatly influence physicians' practice, hospital policy, and discussions of healthcare reform. However, little is known about the specific characteristics and overall cost burden of these payouts. We reviewed all paid malpractice claims nationwide using the National Practitioner Data Bank over a 7-year period (2004-2010) and used multivariate regression to identify risk factors for catastrophic and increased overall payouts. Claims with catastrophic payouts represented 7.9% (6,130/77,621) of all paid claims. Factors most associated with catastrophic payouts were patient age less than 1 year; quadriplegia, brain damage, or lifelong care; and anesthesia allegation group. Compared with court judgments, settlement was associated with decreased odds of a catastrophic payout (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.42) and lower estimated average payouts ($124,863; 95% CI, $101,509-144,992). A physician's years in practice and previous paid claims history had no effect on the odds of a catastrophic payout. Catastrophic payouts averaged $1.4 billion per year or 0.05% of the National Health Expenditures. Preventing catastrophic malpractice payouts should be only one aspect of comprehensive patient safety and quality improvement strategies. Future studies should evaluate the benefits of targeted interventions based on specific patient safety event characteristics. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  20. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

    2005-01-01

    To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

  1. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  2. The Impact of Heterogeneity on Threshold-Limited Social Contagion, and on Crowd Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karampourniotis, Panagiotis Dimitrios

    studying the data from a global lending platform we discover that geographical proximity and cultural affinity are highly negatively correlated with levels of flatness of the world. Furthermore, we investigate the robustness of the flatness of the world against sudden catastrophic national events such as political disruptions, by removing countries (nodes) or connections (edges) between them.

  3. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  4. Threshold concepts in prosthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Sophie

    2017-12-01

    Curriculum documents identify key concepts within learning prosthetics. Threshold concepts provide an alternative way of viewing the curriculum, focussing on the ways of thinking and practicing within prosthetics. Threshold concepts can be described as an opening to a different way of viewing a concept. This article forms part of a larger study exploring what students and staff experience as difficult in learning about prosthetics. To explore possible threshold concepts within prosthetics. Qualitative, interpretative phenomenological analysis. Data from 18 students and 8 staff at two universities with undergraduate prosthetics and orthotics programmes were generated through interviews and questionnaires. The data were analysed using an interpretative phenomenological analysis approach. Three possible threshold concepts arose from the data: 'how we walk', 'learning to talk' and 'considering the person'. Three potential threshold concepts in prosthetics are suggested with possible implications for prosthetics education. These possible threshold concepts involve changes in both conceptual and ontological knowledge, integrating into the persona of the individual. This integration occurs through the development of memories associated with procedural concepts that combine with disciplinary concepts. Considering the prosthetics curriculum through the lens of threshold concepts enables a focus on how students learn to become prosthetists. Clinical relevance This study provides new insights into how prosthetists learn. This has implications for curriculum design in prosthetics education.

  5. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  6. Regional Seismic Threshold Monitoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kvaerna, Tormod

    2006-01-01

    ... model to be used for predicting the travel times of regional phases. We have applied these attenuation relations to develop and assess a regional threshold monitoring scheme for selected subregions of the European Arctic...

  7. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  8. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  9. [Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aracena-Genao, Belkis; González-Robledo, María Cecilia; González-Robledo, Luz María; Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Nigenda-López, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    To document the status of operational and managerial processes of the Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses (FPGC), as well as to describe its evolution, and to explore the relationship between covered diseases and the Mexican health profile. This is a joint management study, which included a qualitative and a quantitative phase. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants. We also analyzed the records of CNPSS, the hospital discharge and mortality data bases. Fifty two percent of the states take twice as long to report and validate the cases. From 2004-2009 the FPGC increased its coverage from 6 to 49 interventions, that means a spending increase of 2 306.4% in nominal terms and 1 659.3% in real terms. The HIV/AIDS was the intervention prioritized with 39.3% and Mexico City had the highest proportion of expenditure (25.1%). A few diseases included in the health profile are covered by the FPGC. The review of the inclusion criteria of diseases is urgent, so as to cover diseases of epidemiological importance.

  10. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  11. Hydrodynamics of sediment threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Sk Zeeshan; Dey, Subhasish

    2016-07-01

    A novel hydrodynamic model for the threshold of cohesionless sediment particle motion under a steady unidirectional streamflow is presented. The hydrodynamic forces (drag and lift) acting on a solitary sediment particle resting over a closely packed bed formed by the identical sediment particles are the primary motivating forces. The drag force comprises of the form drag and form induced drag. The lift force includes the Saffman lift, Magnus lift, centrifugal lift, and turbulent lift. The points of action of the force system are appropriately obtained, for the first time, from the basics of micro-mechanics. The sediment threshold is envisioned as the rolling mode, which is the plausible mode to initiate a particle motion on the bed. The moment balance of the force system on the solitary particle about the pivoting point of rolling yields the governing equation. The conditions of sediment threshold under the hydraulically smooth, transitional, and rough flow regimes are examined. The effects of velocity fluctuations are addressed by applying the statistical theory of turbulence. This study shows that for a hindrance coefficient of 0.3, the threshold curve (threshold Shields parameter versus shear Reynolds number) has an excellent agreement with the experimental data of uniform sediments. However, most of the experimental data are bounded by the upper and lower limiting threshold curves, corresponding to the hindrance coefficients of 0.2 and 0.4, respectively. The threshold curve of this study is compared with those of previous researchers. The present model also agrees satisfactorily with the experimental data of nonuniform sediments.

  12. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  13. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  14. An Update on Football Deaths and Catastrophic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.; Blyth, Carl S.

    1986-01-01

    The latest figures (1985) indicate a continued decline in football deaths and catastrophic injuries, which is credited to a ban on spearing and to a helmet standard. Guidelines for prevention of fatalities and injuries are listed. (Author/MT)

  15. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  16. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Liang, Xiangzhou

    2017-05-09

    This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε ₀ exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of -1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  17. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  18. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Koppel, van de J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to

  19. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  20. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  1. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky; Dmitry S. Lukin; Sergey V. Rogachev

    2015-01-01

    The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of spec...

  2. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  3. Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

    2016-12-01

    Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  5. MHD stability, operational limits and disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The present physics understandings of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of tokamak plasmas, the threshold conditions for onset of MHD instability, and the resulting operational limits on attainable plasma pressure (beta limit) and density (density limit), and the consequences of plasma disruption and disruption related effects are reviewed and assessed in the context of their application to a future DT burning reactor prototype tokamak experiment such as ITER. The principal considerations covered within the MHD stability and beta limit assessments are (i) magnetostatic equilibrium, ideal MHD stability and the resulting ideal MHD beta limit; (ii) sawtooth oscillations and the coupling of sawtooth activity to other types of MHD instability; (iii) neoclassical island resistive tearing modes and the corresponding limits on beta and energy confinement; (iv) wall stabilization of ideal MHD instabilities and resistive wall instabilities; (v) mode locking effects of non-axisymmetric error fields; (vi) edge localized MHD instabilities (ELMs, etc.); and (vii) MHD instabilities and beta/pressure gradient limits in plasmas with actively modified current and magnetic shear profiles. The principal considerations covered within the density limit assessments are (i) empirical density limits; (ii) edge power balance/radiative density limits in ohmic and L-mode plasmas; and (iii) edge parameter related density limits in H-mode plasmas. The principal considerations covered in the disruption assessments are (i) disruption causes, frequency and MHD instability onset; (ii) disruption thermal and current quench characteristics; (iii) vertical instabilities (VDEs), both before and after disruption, and plasma and in-vessel halo currents; (iv) after disruption runaway electron formation, confinement and loss; (v) fast plasma shutdown (rapid externally initiated dissipation of plasma thermal and magnetic energies); (vi) means for disruption avoidance and disruption effect mitigation; and

  6. Hadron production near threshold

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Final state interaction effects in → + and → 3He reactions are explored near threshold to study the sensitivity of the cross-sections to the potential and the scattering matrix. The final state scattering wave functions between and and and 3He are described rigorously. The production is ...

  7. Elaborating on Threshold Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rountree, Janet; Robins, Anthony; Rountree, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    We propose an expanded definition of Threshold Concepts (TCs) that requires the successful acquisition and internalisation not only of knowledge, but also its practical elaboration in the domains of applied strategies and mental models. This richer definition allows us to clarify the relationship between TCs and Fundamental Ideas, and to account…

  8. Boundaries, Thresholds, and Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carl R.

    1997-01-01

    Highlights issues in the debate concerning Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) special education legislation as it relates to student discipline and incarcerated juveniles. Focuses on assessment issues and thresholds for diagnosable conditions. Looks at debates surrounding IDEA and some of the consequences of new legislation. (RJM)

  9. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  10. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  11. Search and Disrupt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørding Olsen, Anders

    Extant research on external knowledge search and open innovation assumes that collaborators are aligned in their strategic interests towards solving innovation problems. However, disruptive innovation is known to threaten the competitive advantage of incumbent firms, thereby creating a potential...

  12. Search and Disrupt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørding Olsen, Anders

    This paper analyzes how external search is affected by strategic interest alignment among knowledge sources. I focus on misalignment arising from the heterogeneous effects of disruptive technologies by analyzing the influence of incumbents on 2,855 non-incumbents? external knowledge search efforts....... The efforts most likely to solve innovation problems obtained funding from the European Commission?s 7th Framework Program (2007-2013). The results show that involving incumbents improves search in complementary technologies, while demoting it when strategic interests are misaligned in disruptive technologies....... However, incumbent sources engaged in capability reconfiguration to accommodate disruption improve search efforts in disruptive technologies. The paper concludes that the value of external sources is contingent on more than their knowledge. Specifically, interdependence of sources in search gives rise...

  13. Disruption Rose Tinted II

    OpenAIRE

    Livingstone, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    'Disruption - Rose Tinted II' continues to engage narratives of historical English china as previously explored in the work 'Rose Tinted'. This work engages the sleepy rural idyll which is overlaid with visual contemporary social commentary.

  14. Forecast for Artificial Muscle Tremor Behavior Based on Dynamic Additional Grey Catastrophe Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Fu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently, bio-inspired artificial muscles based on ionic polymers have shown a bright perspective in engineering and medical research, but the inherent tremor behavior can cause instability of output response. In this paper, dynamic additional grey catastrophe prediction (DAGCP is proposed to forecast the occurrence time of tremor behavior, providing adequate preparation time for the suppression of the chitosan-based artificial muscles. DAGCP constructs various dimensions of time subsequence models under different starting points based on the threshold of tremor occurrence times and peak-to-peak values in unit time. Next, the appropriate subsequence is selected according to grey correlation degree and prediction accuracy, then it is updated with the newly generated values to achieve a real-time forecast of forthcoming tremor time. Compared with conventional grey catastrophe prediction (GCP, the proposed method has the following advantages: (1 the degradation of prediction accuracy caused by the immobilization of original parameters is prevented; (2 the dynamic input, real-time update and gradual forecast of time sequence are incorporated into the model. The experiment results show that the novel DAGCP can predict forthcoming tremor time earlier and more accurately than the conventional GCP. The generation mechanism of tremor behavior is illustrated as well.

  15. Digital disruption ?syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Clair; Staib, Andrew

    2017-05-18

    The digital transformation of hospitals in Australia is occurring rapidly in order to facilitate innovation and improve efficiency. Rapid transformation can cause temporary disruption of hospital workflows and staff as processes are adapted to the new digital workflows. The aim of this paper is to outline various types of digital disruption and some strategies for effective management. A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a rapid, successful roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR). We observed this transformation and propose several digital disruption "syndromes" to assist with understanding and management during digital transformation: digital deceleration, digital transparency, digital hypervigilance, data discordance, digital churn and post-digital 'depression'. These 'syndromes' are defined and discussed in detail. Successful management of this temporary digital disruption is important to ensure a successful transition to a digital platform. What is known about this topic? Digital disruption is defined as the changes facilitated by digital technologies that occur at a pace and magnitude that disrupt established ways of value creation, social interactions, doing business and more generally our thinking. Increasing numbers of Australian hospitals are implementing digital solutions to replace traditional paper-based systems for patient care in order to create opportunities for improved care and efficiencies. Such large scale change has the potential to create transient disruption to workflows and staff. Managing this temporary disruption effectively is an important factor in the successful implementation of an EMR. What does this paper add? A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a successful rapid roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR) to become Australia's largest digital hospital over a 3-week period. We observed and assisted with the management of several cultural, behavioural and

  16. Endocrine disrupting compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgh, I B; Christensen, P; Dantzer, V

    2001-01-01

    processes, and exposure during critical periods of prenatal development might affect reproductive performance over several generations. Alkylphenols and their metabolites are lipophilic substances exerting apparent estrogenic action in in vitro and in vivo testing systems. With the widespread industrial use...... or embryo models for the evaluation of possible consequences of human exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds is discussed. Furthermore, possible consequences of exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds for the embryo transfer industry are addressed....

  17. Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder (DMDD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for Families Guide Facts for Families - Vietnamese Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder (DMDD) No. 110; Updated May 2013 Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder (DMDD) is a relatively new diagnosis ...

  18. Critical issues and experimental examination on sawtooth and disruption physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.; Fukuyama, A.; Tsuji, S.

    1992-06-01

    The catastrophic phenomena which are associated with the major disruption and sawtooth contain three key processes: (1) Sudden acceleration of the growth of the helical deformation, (2) Central electron temperature crash, and (3) Rearrangement of the plasma current. Based on the theoretical model that the magnetic stochasticity plays a key role in these processes, the critical issues and possible experimental tests are proposed. Present experimental observations would be sufficient to study the detailed sequences and causes. Though models may not be complete the comparison with experiments improves understandings. (author)

  19. Shifting Relations with the More-than-Human: Six Threshold Concepts for Transformative Sustainability Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, M. J.; Harmin, Matthew; Maracle, Bryan; Patterson, Molly; Thomson, Christina; Flowers, Michelle; Bors, Kirk

    2017-01-01

    Using the iterative process of action research, we identify six portals of understanding, called threshold concepts, which can be used as curricular guideposts to disrupt the socially constituted separation, and hierarchy, between humans and the more-than-human. The threshold concepts identified in this study provide focal points for a curriculum…

  20. A test of catastrophic transition mechanisms in the Chihuahuan Desert Grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svejcar, L.; Bestelmeyer, B.; Duniway, M.

    2012-12-01

    Dryland ecosystems are known to undergo transitions from grassland or savanna states to shrub-dominated and/or eroded states with persistent loss of herbaceous vegetation. Theoretical models for predicting critical thresholds between states have been examined in drylands to search for early warning indicators, yet there is scant empirical evidence for the mechanisms. The models postulate that larger patches are favorable environments for plant growth in arid ecosystems due to short-range facilitation. The breakdown of large patches is thought to trigger catastrophic transitions. We tested assumptions underpinning these models using an experiment in black grama grassland (Bouteloua eriopoda Torr.) of the Chihuahuan Desert in which variable grazing intensities produced a wide range of patch sizes in plots with differing mesquite shrub (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) densities. We tested the hypothesis that growth, reproductive capability, and reproductive success of black grama plants would be greater in larger plant patches than in smaller patches. From 2010-2012 we measured numbers of stolons, ramets, rooted ramets and young individual plants associated with focal black grama plants and fixed areas within each patch. We found that the largest patches did not always feature the highest rates of grass reproduction across years, suggesting that patch size does not consistently indicate the patch persistence mechanisms proposed in catastrophic transition models. Other factors, such as resource competition within patches, may play important roles in black grama grasslands. When assessing rangeland conditions in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, theoretical models of critical thresholds and early warning indicators should be applied with caution.

  1. Disruption prediction at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, F.

    1998-12-01

    The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

  2. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  3. Hadron production near threshold

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Final state interaction effects in pp → pΛK+ and pd → 3He η reactions are explored near threshold to study the sensitivity of the cross-sections to the pΛ potential and the ηN scattering matrix. The final state scattering wave functions between Λ and p and η and 3He are described rigorously. The Λ production is ...

  4. Targeting the Mitotic Catastrophe Signaling Pathway in Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mc Gee, Margaret M.

    2015-01-01

    Mitotic catastrophe, as defined in 2012 by the International Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death, is a bona fide intrinsic oncosuppressive mechanism that senses mitotic failure and responds by driving a cell to an irreversible antiproliferative fate of death or senescence. Thus, failed mitotic catastrophe can promote the unrestrained growth of defective cells, thereby representing a major gateway to tumour development. Furthermore, the activation of mitotic catastrophe offers significant therapeutic advantage which has been exploited in the action of conventional and targeted anticancer agents. Yet, despite its importance in tumour prevention and treatment, the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe is not well understood. A better understanding of the signals that determine cell fate following failed or defective mitosis will reveal new opportunities to selectively target and enhance the programme for therapeutic benefit and reveal biomarkers to predict patient response. This review is focused on the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe induction and signalling and highlights current strategies to exploit the process in cancer therapy. PMID:26491220

  5. Examining inequities in incidence of catastrophic health expenditures on different healthcare services and health facilities in Nigeria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obinna Onwujekwe

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited evidence about levels of socio-economic and other differences in catastrophic health spending in Nigeria and in many sub-Saharan African countries. The study estimated the level of catastrophic healthcare expenditures for different healthcare services and facilities and their distribution across socioeconomic status (SES groups. METHODS: The study took place in four Local Government Areas in southeast Nigeria. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires administered to 4873 households. Catastrophic health expenditures (CHE were measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. We examined both total monthly health expenditure and disaggregated expenditure by source and type of care. RESULTS: The average total household health expenditure per month was 2354 Naira ($19.6. For outpatient services, average monthly expenditure was 1809 Naira ($15.1, whilst for inpatient services it was 610 Naira ($5.1. Higher health expenditures were incurred by urban residents and the better-off SES groups. Overall, 27% of households incurred CHE, higher for poorer socioeconomic groups and for rural residents. Only 1.0% of households had a member that was enrolled in a health insurance scheme. CONCLUSION: The worse-off households (the poorest SES and rural dwellers experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. There was almost a complete lack of financial risk protection. Health reform mechanisms are needed to ensure universal coverage with financial risk protection mechanisms.

  6. Influence of Catastrophizing and Personality Traits on Recalled Ratings of Acute Pain Experience in Healthy Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallegama, Ranjith Wasantha; Ariyasinghe, Sajjiv; Perera, Eranthi Dinoka; Treede, Rolf-Detlef

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether pain catastrophizing and personality traits bias recalled ratings of acute pain in an experimental tonic pain model. Fifty-six undergraduates (14 males) recruited from the University of Peradeniya (mean age 21.7 ± 0.8 SD years). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. They were subjected to two cold pressor tests (dominant and non-dominant hands) and pain threshold, maximum pain intensity, and pain tolerance were recorded. One-week later, the maximum pain intensities of both hands were recalled and percentage distortions in recalling were calculated. Based on a 180 s cutoff, two participants were considered pain-insensitive during the test and were excluded from the analysis. The maximum pain intensity was recalled with a moderate accuracy (Intraclass Correlation Coefficients = 0.68 for dominant and 0.59 for non-dominant hands). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that maximum pain intensity ( P  memory for painful events in healthy subjects was reasonably accurate over a period of 1 week. Pain catastrophizing biased pain recall, whereas among personality traits only neuroticism exhibited a weak positive association with the recalled ratings.

  7. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  8. Emerging and Disruptive Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kricka, Larry J

    2016-08-01

    Several emerging or disruptive technologies can be identified that might, at some point in the future, displace established laboratory medicine technologies and practices. These include increased automation in the form of robots, 3-D printing, technology convergence (e.g., plug-in glucose meters for smart phones), new point-of-care technologies (e.g., contact lenses with sensors, digital and wireless enabled pregnancy tests) and testing locations (e.g., Retail Health Clinics, new at-home testing formats), new types of specimens (e.g., cell free DNA), big biology/data (e.g., million genome projects), and new regulations (e.g., for laboratory developed tests). In addition, there are many emerging technologies (e.g., planar arrays, mass spectrometry) that might find even broader application in the future and therefore also disrupt current practice. One interesting source of disruptive technology may prove to be the Qualcomm Tricorder XPrize, currently in its final stages.

  9. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  10. Interruptions disrupt reading comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroughi, Cyrus K; Werner, Nicole E; Barragán, Daniela; Boehm-Davis, Deborah A

    2015-06-01

    Previous research suggests that being interrupted while reading a text does not disrupt the later recognition or recall of information from that text. This research is used as support for Ericsson and Kintsch's (1995) long-term working memory (LT-WM) theory, which posits that disruptions while reading (e.g., interruptions) do not impair subsequent text comprehension. However, to fully comprehend a text, individuals may need to do more than recognize or recall information that has been presented in the text at a later time. Reading comprehension often requires individuals to connect and synthesize information across a text (e.g., successfully identifying complex topics such as themes and tones) and not just make a familiarity-based decision (i.e., recognition). The goal for this study was to determine whether interruptions while reading disrupt reading comprehension when the questions assessing comprehension require participants to connect and synthesize information across the passage. In Experiment 1, interruptions disrupted reading comprehension. In Experiment 2, interruptions disrupted reading comprehension but not recognition of information from the text. In Experiment 3, the addition of a 15-s time-out prior to the interruption successfully removed these negative effects. These data suggest that the time it takes to process the information needed to successfully comprehend text when reading is greater than that required for recognition. Any interference (e.g., an interruption) that occurs during the comprehension process may disrupt reading comprehension. This evidence supports the need for transient activation of information in working memory for successful text comprehension and does not support LT-WM theory. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Catastrophic Senescence of the Pacific Salmon Without Mutation-Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    We derive catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon from an aging model which was recently proposed by Stauffer. The model is based on the postulates of a minimum reproduction age and a maximal genetic lifespan. It allows for self-organization of a typical age of first reproduction and a typical age of death. Our Monte Carlo simulations of the population dynamics show that the model leads to catastrophic senescence for semelparous reproduction as it occurs in the case of salmon, to a more gradually increase of senescence for iteroparous reproduction.

  12. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  13. Managing Supply Chain Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-08-09

    additional resources such as increased levels of inventory to restore operations following a disruption (Stonebraker & Afifi , 2004; Zsidisin et al...Other Disciplines to Logistics. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 27(9/10), pp 515. Stonebraker, P. W. & Afifi

  14. Sustainable Disruption Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaaben, Bo Valdemar

    when managing recovery from disruptions. The underlying work of this thesis is carried out as an industrial PhD project in co-operation with the company Jeppesen, which have the airline industry as its primary area of business and the maritime industry as its secondary area. For this reason the thesis...

  15. The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance in Enhancing Better Accessibility and Lowering the Chance of Having Financial Catastrophe Due to Health Service Utilization: A Case Study of Savannakhet Province, Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodhisane, Somdeth; Pongpanich, Sathirakorn

    2017-07-01

    The Lao population mostly relies on out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services. This study aims to determine the role of community-based health insurance in making health care services accessible and in preventing financial catastrophe resulting from personal payment for inpatient services. A cross-sectional study design was applied. Data collection involved 126 insured and 126 uninsured households in identical study sites. Two logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the probability of hospitalization and financial catastrophe that occurred in both insured and uninsured households within the previous year. The findings show that insurance status does not significantly improve accessibility and financial protection against catastrophic expenditure. The reason is relatively simple, as catastrophic health expenditure refers to a total out-of-pocket payment equal to or more than 40% of household income minus subsistence. When household income declines as a result of inability to work due to illness, the 40% threshold is quickly reached. Despite this, results suggest that insured households are not significantly better off under community-based health insurance. However, compared to uninsured households, insured households do have better accessibility and a lower probability of reaching the financial catastrophe threshold.

  16. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  17. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  18. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  19. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roda, M.; Kleinhans, M.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/217675123; Zegers, T.E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/155390562; Oosthoek, J.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios

  20. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  1. Statistical analysis of JET disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanga, A.; Johnson, M.F.

    1991-07-01

    In the operation of JET and of any tokamak many discharges are terminated by a major disruption. The disruptive termination of a discharge is usually an unwanted event which may cause damage to the structure of the vessel. In a reactor disruptions are potentially a very serious problem, hence the importance of studying them and devising methods to avoid disruptions. Statistical information has been collected about the disruptions which have occurred at JET over a long span of operations. The analysis is focused on the operational aspects of the disruptions rather than on the underlining physics. (Author)

  2. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Oscillatory Threshold Logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borresen, Jon; Lynch, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    In the 1940s, the first generation of modern computers used vacuum tube oscillators as their principle components, however, with the development of the transistor, such oscillator based computers quickly became obsolete. As the demand for faster and lower power computers continues, transistors are themselves approaching their theoretical limit and emerging technologies must eventually supersede them. With the development of optical oscillators and Josephson junction technology, we are again presented with the possibility of using oscillators as the basic components of computers, and it is possible that the next generation of computers will be composed almost entirely of oscillatory devices. Here, we demonstrate how coupled threshold oscillators may be used to perform binary logic in a manner entirely consistent with modern computer architectures. We describe a variety of computational circuitry and demonstrate working oscillator models of both computation and memory. PMID:23173034

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  5. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  6. [Xenoestrogens: endocrine disrupting compounds].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wozniak, Milena; Murias, Marek

    2008-11-01

    In recent years much attention has been paid to the issues of chemicals that disrupt the normal function of endocrine system, namely xenoestrogens. These chemicals can mimic the activity of endogenous estrogens, antagonize their interaction with estrogen receptors or disrupt the synthesis, metabolism and functions of endogenous female hormones. Due to the fact that they act thanks to many different mechanisms, it is very difficult to estimate their estrogenic activity by means of a simple tests. The important issue remains the fact that xenoestrogens may have a positive or negative influence on the function of the endocrine system. It seems to be very important that there are many sources of xenoestrogens, that is not only vegetables and fruit (phytoestrogens), but also metals (Co, Cu, Ni, Cr, Pb), dental appliances (alkilphenols), food containers or blood containers (PVC--polyvinyl chloride, DEHP--di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate), cosmetics (parabens) and pesticides (DDT--dichlor-diphenyl-trichlorethylane, endosulfane).

  7. Disrupted Refugee Family Life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shapiro, Ditte Krogh

    2017-01-01

    Fleeing civil war involves managing life threatening events and multiple disruptions of everyday life. The theoretical potentials of analysing the recreation of everyday family life among Syrian refugees in Denmark is explored based on conceptualizations that emphasize the collective agency...... war and struggle to recreate an everyday life in exile is to contribute with contextualization and expansion of mainstream understandings of family life, suffering, and resilience in refugee family trajectories in multiple contexts....

  8. The Impact of Sleep Disruption on Complex Cognitive Tasks: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D; Hutchins, Shaun D; Laux, Lila; Sebok, Angelia

    2015-09-01

    We aimed to build upon the state of knowledge about the impacts of sleep disruption into the domain of complex cognitive task performance for three types of sleep disruption: total sleep deprivation, sleep restriction, and circadian cycle. Sleep disruption affects human performance by increasing the likelihood of errors or the time it takes to complete tasks, such as the Psychomotor Vigilance Task. It is not clear whether complex tasks are affected in the same way. Understanding the impact of sleep disruption on complex cognitive tasks is important for, and in some instances more relevant to, professional workers confronted with unexpected, catastrophic failures following a period of disrupted sleep. Meta-analytic review methods were applied to each of the three different areas of sleep disruption research. Complex cognitive task performance declines over consecutive hours of continuous wakefulness as well as consecutive days of restricted sleep, is worse for severely restricted sleep (4 or fewer hours in bed), is worse during the circadian nadir than apex, and appears less degraded than simple task performance. The reviews suggest that complex cognitive task performance may not be impacted by disrupted sleep as severely as simple cognitive task performance. Findings apply to predicting effects of sleep disruption on workers in safety-critical environments, such as health care, aviation, the military, process control, and in particular, safety-critical environments involving shiftwork or long-duration missions. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  9. WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, S; Molloy, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages for 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor

  10. Wound Disruption Following Colorectal Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadamyeghaneh, Zhobin; Hanna, Mark H; Carmichael, Joseph C; Mills, Steven; Pigazzi, Alessio; Nguyen, Ninh T; Stamos, Michael J

    2015-12-01

    Postoperative wound disruption is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We sought to identify the risk factors and outcomes of wound disruption following colorectal resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database was used to examine the clinical data of patients who underwent colorectal resection from 2005 to 2013. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors of wound disruption. We sampled a total of 164,297 patients who underwent colorectal resection. Of these, 2073 (1.3 %) had wound disruption. Patients with wound disruption had significantly higher mortality (5.1 vs. 1.9 %, AOR: 1.46, P = 0.01). The highest risk of wound disruption was seen in patients with wound infection (4.8 vs. 0.9 %, AOR: 4.11, P disruption such as chronic steroid use (AOR: 1.71, P disruption compared to open surgery (AOR: 0.61, P disruption occurs in 1.3 % of colorectal resections, and it correlates with mortality of patients. Wound infection is the strongest predictor of wound disruption. Chronic steroid use, obesity, severe COPD, prolonged operation, non-elective admission, and serum albumin level are strongly associated with wound disruption. Utilization of the laparoscopic approach may decrease the risk of wound disruption when possible.

  11. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247...) ``providing an assessment of the current state of the market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United... appropriate and available, regarding natural catastrophes and the current state of the market for insurance...

  12. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  13. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  14. Iris pigmentation and AC thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, A F; Mukherjee, D; Chumlea, W C; Siervogel, R M

    1983-03-01

    Data from 160 White children were used to analyze possible associations between iris pigmentation and AC pure-tone thresholds. Iris pigmentation was graded from iris color using glass models of eyes, and AC thresholds were obtained under carefully controlled conditions. Analyses of variance using two groupings of iris color grades showed no evidence of an association between iris color grade and AC thresholds. Furthermore, inspection of arrays of the actual glass eye models, in conjunction with the order of mean thresholds at each test frequency, did not indicate the presence of an association between iris color grades and thresholds. It was concluded that while iris pigmentation may be related to some aspects of hearing ability, it does not appear to be related to AC thresholds in children.

  15. Crossing the threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, John; Tambasco, Lucas

    2017-11-01

    First, we summarize the circumstances in which chaotic pilot-wave dynamics gives rise to quantum-like statistical behavior. For ``closed'' systems, in which the droplet is confined to a finite domain either by boundaries or applied forces, quantum-like features arise when the persistence time of the waves exceeds the time required for the droplet to cross its domain. Second, motivated by the similarities between this hydrodynamic system and stochastic electrodynamics, we examine the behavior of a bouncing droplet above the Faraday threshold, where a stochastic element is introduced into the drop dynamics by virtue of its interaction with a background Faraday wave field. With a view to extending the dynamical range of pilot-wave systems to capture more quantum-like features, we consider a generalized theoretical framework for stochastic pilot-wave dynamics in which the relative magnitudes of the drop-generated pilot-wave field and a stochastic background field may be varied continuously. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the NSF through their CMMI and DMS divisions.

  16. Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

    2017-11-01

    to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

  17. Albania - Thresholds I and II

    Data.gov (United States)

    Millennium Challenge Corporation — From 2006 to 2011, the government of Albania (GOA) received two Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Programs totaling $29.6 million. Albania received...

  18. Olfactory threshold in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N P; Rossor, M N; Marsden, C D

    1987-01-01

    Olfactory threshold to differing concentrations of amyl acetate was determined in 78 subjects with idiopathic Parkinson's disease and 40 age-matched controls. Impaired olfactory threshold (previously reported by others) was confirmed in Parkinsonian subjects compared with controls. There was no significant correlation between olfactory threshold and age, sex, duration of disease, or current therapy with levodopa or anticholinergic drugs. In a sub-group of 14 levodopa-treated patients with severe "on-off" fluctuations, no change in olfactory threshold between the two states was demonstrable. Olfactory impairment in Parkinson's disease may involve mechanisms that are not influenced by pharmacologic manipulation of dopaminergic or cholinergic status. PMID:3819760

  19. Learning foraging thresholds for lizards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, L.A. [Univ. of Warwick, Coventry (United Kingdom). Dept. of Computer Science; Hart, W.E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilson, D.B. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-01-12

    This work gives a proof of convergence for a randomized learning algorithm that describes how anoles (lizards found in the Carribean) learn a foraging threshold distance. This model assumes that an anole will pursue a prey if and only if it is within this threshold of the anole`s perch. This learning algorithm was proposed by the biologist Roughgarden and his colleagues. They experimentally confirmed that this algorithm quickly converges to the foraging threshold that is predicted by optimal foraging theory our analysis provides an analytic confirmation that the learning algorithm converses to this optimal foraging threshold with high probability.

  20. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  1. Space power as a response to global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempsell, Mark

    2006-10-01

    Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or human activity. It has been argued that space industrialisation generally offers a response to the risks involved by this class of event and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. Space power has always been argued as the only energy generating option that avoids depletion of non-renewable resources or pollution induced problems—in particular global warming. However, there are many other potential roles for a solar power capability and the infrastructure associated with it can play in the prevention of global catastrophes and this paper examines this wider application. A very preliminary examination indicates the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) infrastructure can also support strategic defence, Near-Earth Object defence, climate modification, and major resource provision. Combined these may give the capability to deal with all the main threats to human civilisation.

  2. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  3. Catastrophic Intramedullary Abscess Caused by a Missed Congenital Dermal Sinus

    OpenAIRE

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-01-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. The...

  4. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  5. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  6. Disruption - Access cards service

    CERN Multimedia

    2014-01-01

    We would like to inform you that between 10 November and 15 December 2014, the access cards service in Building 55 will be disrupted, as the GS Department has decided to improve the facilities for users of this building. During the work, you will find the registration, biometric registration and dosimeter exchange services on the second floor of Building 55 and the vehicle sticker service on the ground floor along with the access cards service. We thank you for your understanding and apologise for any inconvenience caused.

  7. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  8. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-10-29

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC.

  9. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  10. Watershed safety and quality control by safety threshold method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da-Wei Tsai, David; Mengjung Chou, Caroline; Ramaraj, Rameshprabu; Liu, Wen-Cheng; Honglay Chen, Paris

    2014-05-01

    Taiwan was warned as one of the most dangerous countries by IPCC and the World Bank. In such an exceptional and perilous island, we would like to launch the strategic research of land-use management on the catastrophe prevention and environmental protection. This study used the watershed management by "Safety Threshold Method" to restore and to prevent the disasters and pollution on island. For the deluge prevention, this study applied the restoration strategy to reduce total runoff which was equilibrium to 59.4% of the infiltration each year. For the sediment management, safety threshold management could reduce the sediment below the equilibrium of the natural sediment cycle. In the water quality issues, the best strategies exhibited the significant total load reductions of 10% in carbon (BOD5), 15% in nitrogen (nitrate) and 9% in phosphorus (TP). We found out the water quality could meet the BOD target by the 50% peak reduction with management. All the simulations demonstrated the safety threshold method was helpful to control the loadings within the safe range of disasters and environmental quality. Moreover, from the historical data of whole island, the past deforestation policy and the mistake economic projects were the prime culprits. Consequently, this study showed a practical method to manage both the disasters and pollution in a watershed scale by the land-use management.

  11. Threshold Concepts and Information Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Lori; Brunetti, Korey; Hofer, Amy R.

    2011-01-01

    What do we teach when we teach information literacy in higher education? This paper describes a pedagogical approach to information literacy that helps instructors focus content around transformative learning thresholds. The threshold concept framework holds promise for librarians because it grounds the instructor in the big ideas and underlying…

  12. Second threshold in weak interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veltman, M.J.G.

    1977-01-01

    The point of view that weak interactions must have a second threshold below 300 – 600 GeV is developed. Above this threshold new physics must come in. This new physics may be the Higgs system, or some other nonperturbative system possibly having some similarities to the Higgs system. The limit of

  13. The Nature of Psychological Thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Morey, Richard D.

    2009-01-01

    Following G. T. Fechner (1966), thresholds have been conceptualized as the amount of intensity needed to transition between mental states, such as between a states of unconsciousness and consciousness. With the advent of the theory of signal detection, however, discrete-state theory and the corresponding notion of threshold have been discounted.…

  14. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  15. Relativistic tidal disruption events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levan A.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In March 2011 Swift detected an extremely luminous and long-lived outburst from the nucleus of an otherwise quiescent, low luminosity (LMC-like galaxy. Named Swift J1644+57, its combination of high-energy luminosity (1048 ergs s−1 at peak, rapid X-ray variability (factors of >100 on timescales of 100 seconds and luminous, rising radio emission suggested that we were witnessing the birth of a moderately relativistic jet (Γ ∼ 2 − 5, created when a star is tidally disrupted by the supermassive black hole in the centre of the galaxy. A second event, Swift J2058+0516, detected two months later, with broadly similar properties lends further weight to this interpretation. Taken together this suggests that a fraction of tidal disruption events do indeed create relativistic outflows, demonstrates their detectability, and also implies that low mass galaxies can host massive black holes. Here, I briefly outline the observational properties of these relativistic tidal flares observed last year, and their evolution over the first year since their discovery.

  16. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  17. The association of catastrophizing with quality-of-life outcomes in patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, LeeAnne B; Leary, Emily; Henderson, Wendy A

    2017-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a cognitive process characterized by a propensity to concentrate on and magnify the value of an actual or anticipated painful stimulus and negatively assesses one's ability to cope. Catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain-related outcomes. A cornerstone symptom of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is abdominal pain or discomfort. Also individuals with IBS have been reported to have a tendency to catastrophize. In a sample of individuals who suffer from IBS, we hypothesized that those individuals who catastrophize (catastrophizers) would have worse outcomes as compared to those who do not catastrophize (non-catastrophizers). One hundred and one adults with IBS (79% female, mean age 42 years, 97% Caucasian) were recruited from outpatient clinics and data were collected through self-report measures. Catastrophizing was measured with the catastrophizing subscale of the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, illness representations were measured with The Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R), psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory 18 (BSI-18), and health-related quality of life was measured using the Irritable Bowel Syndrome-Quality of Life (IBS-QOL) measure. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and multiple linear regression analyses were completed to describe participants, the associations of the variables of interest, and the unique relationship between psychosocial variables and HRQOL. Overall, participants reported poor HRQOL (M = 63.32, range 0-100). Catastrophizers differed significantly on IBS-QOL from non-catastrophizers (M = 48.98 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 78.53; p IPQ-R, specifically the consequences (M = 21.75 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 17.20; p < 0.001) and emotional representations (M = 20.90 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 15.43; p < 0.001). Catastrophizing was positively correlated with the consequences (r = .54; p < 0.01) and emotional

  18. Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Xubin

    2017-01-01

    There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

  19. The transition from evolutionary stability to branching: A catastrophic evolutionary shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dercole, Fabio; Della Rossa, Fabio; Landi, Pietro

    2016-05-24

    Evolutionary branching-resident-mutant coexistence under disruptive selection-is one of the main contributions of Adaptive Dynamics (AD), the mathematical framework introduced by S.A.H. Geritz, J.A.J. Metz, and coauthors to model the long-term evolution of coevolving multi-species communities. It has been shown to be the basic mechanism for sympatric and parapatric speciation, despite the essential asexual nature of AD. After 20 years from its introduction, we unfold the transition from evolutionary stability (ESS) to branching, along with gradual change in environmental, control, or exploitation parameters. The transition is a catastrophic evolutionary shift, the branching dynamics driving the system to a nonlocal evolutionary attractor that is viable before the transition, but unreachable from the ESS. Weak evolutionary stability hence qualifies as an early-warning signal for branching and a testable measure of the community's resilience against biodiversity. We clarify a controversial theoretical question about the smoothness of the mutant invasion fitness at incipient branching. While a supposed nonsmoothness at third order long prevented the analysis of the ESS-branching transition, we argue that smoothness is generally expected and derive a local canonical model in terms of the geometry of the invasion fitness before branching. Any generic AD model undergoing the transition qualitatively behaves like our canonical model.

  20. Catastrophizing, rumination, and reappraisal prospectively predict adolescent PTSD symptom onset following a terrorist attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Jessica L; Jager-Hyman, Shari; Heleniak, Charlotte; Beck, Aaron T; Sheridan, Margaret A; McLaughlin, Katie A

    2016-08-24

    Disruptions in emotion regulation are a transdiagnostic risk factor for psychopathology. However, scant research has examined whether emotion regulation strategies are related to the onset of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms among youths exposed to trauma. We investigated whether pretrauma emotion regulation strategies prospectively predicted PTSD symptom onset after the 2013 Boston Marathon terrorist attack among adolescents and whether these associations were moderated by the degree of exposure to media coverage of the attack. A sample of 78 Boston-area adolescents (mean age = 16.72 years, 65% female) who previously participated in studies assessing emotion regulation and psychopathology were recruited following the terrorist attack. Within 4 weeks of the attack, we assessed self-reported PTSD symptoms and attack-related media exposure via an online survey. We examined the association of pretrauma emotion regulation strategies with PTSD symptom onset after adjustment for pretrauma internalizing symptoms and violence exposure. Greater pretrauma engagement in rumination predicted onset of PTSD symptoms following the attack. Adolescents who engaged in catastrophizing also had greater PTSD symptoms postattack, but only when exposed to high levels of media coverage of the attacks; the same pattern was observed for adolescents who engaged in low levels of cognitive reappraisal. Engagement in specific emotion regulation strategies prior to a traumatic event predicts the onset of PTSD symptoms among youths exposed to trauma, extending transdiagnostic models of emotion regulation to encompass trauma-related psychopathology in children and adolescents. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Catastrophizing, rumination, and reappraisal prospectively predict adolescent PTSD symptom onset following a terrorist attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Jessica L.; Jager-Hyman, Shari; Heleniak, Charlotte; Beck, Aaron T.; Sheridan, Margaret A.; McLaughlin, Katie A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Disruptions in emotion regulation are a transdiagnostic risk factor for psychopathology. However, scant research has examined whether emotion regulation strategies are related to the onset of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms among youths exposed to trauma. We investigated whether pretrauma emotion regulation strategies prospectively predicted PTSD symptom onset after the 2013 Boston Marathon terrorist attack among adolescents and whether these associations were moderated by the degree of exposure to media coverage of the attack. Methods A sample of 78 Boston-area adolescents (mean age =16.72 years, 65% female) who previously participated in studies assessing emotion regulation and psychopathology were recruited following the terrorist attack. Within 4 weeks of the attack, we assessed self-reported PTSD symptoms and attack-related media exposure via an online survey. We examined the association of pretrauma emotion regulation strategies with PTSD symptom onset after adjustment for pretrauma internalizing symptoms and violence exposure. Results Greater pretrauma engagement in rumination predicted onset of PTSD symptoms following the attack. Adolescents who engaged in catastrophizing also had greater PTSD symptoms postattack, but only when exposed to high levels of media coverage of the attacks; the same pattern was observed for adolescents who engaged in low levels of cognitive reappraisal. Conclusions Engagement in specific emotion regulation strategies prior to a traumatic event predicts the onset of PTSD symptoms among youths exposed to trauma, extending transdiagnostic models of emotion regulation to encompass trauma-related psychopathology in children and adolescents. PMID:27557454

  2. Cell disruption for microalgae biorefineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günerken, E; D'Hondt, E; Eppink, M H M; Garcia-Gonzalez, L; Elst, K; Wijffels, R H

    2015-01-01

    Microalgae are a potential source for various valuable chemicals for commercial applications ranging from nutraceuticals to fuels. Objective in a biorefinery is to utilize biomass ingredients efficiently similarly to petroleum refineries in which oil is fractionated in fuels and a variety of products with higher value. Downstream processes in microalgae biorefineries consist of different steps whereof cell disruption is the most crucial part. To maintain the functionality of algae biochemicals during cell disruption while obtaining high disruption yields is an important challenge. Despite this need, studies on mild disruption of microalgae cells are limited. This review article focuses on the evaluation of conventional and emerging cell disruption technologies, and a comparison thereof with respect to their potential for the future microalgae biorefineries. The discussed techniques are bead milling, high pressure homogenization, high speed homogenization, ultrasonication, microwave treatment, pulsed electric field treatment, non-mechanical cell disruption and some emerging technologies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  4. Endocrine disrupting chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mandrup, Karen

    BACKGROUND: Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) may contribute to reproductive changes in boys in the Western world, however, less is known about influence of EDCs in women. The incidence of precocious breast development is increasing in USA and Europe and mammary gland development has been...... gland development before puberty in whole mounted mammary glands and in adults in histological sections of the mammary glands. Moreover, female offspring were evaluated for external genital malformations. The EDCs studied for mammary gland effects were the estrogenic compounds ethinyl estradiol...... were sensitive to EDCs. EDCs with estrogenic mode of action appeared to increase mammary outgrowth in prepubertal female rats and a potent model compound, ethinyl estradiol, increased the density in females and males and the number of terminal end buds in male rats. Histological examination showed...

  5. Overview of core disruptive accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchaterre, J.F.

    1977-01-01

    An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

  6. Disruption of Conscious Access in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovitch, Lucie; Dehaene, Stanislas; Gaillard, Raphaël

    2017-11-01

    Schizophrenia is a severe and complex psychiatric disorder resulting in delusions, hallucinations, and cognitive impairments. Across a variety of paradigms, an elevated threshold for conscious perception has been repeatedly observed in persons with schizophrenia. Remarkably, even subtle measures of subliminal processing appear to be preserved. We argue here that the dissociation between impaired conscious access and intact unconscious processing may be due to a specific disruption of top-down attentional amplification. This proposal is compatible with the neurophysiological disturbances observed in schizophrenia, including dysconnectivity, abnormal neural oscillations, and glutamatergic and cholinergic dysregulation. Therefore, placing impaired conscious access as a central feature of schizophrenia can help researchers develop a coherent and parsimonious pathophysiological framework of the disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Photoproduction of Charm Near Threshold

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Stanley J.

    2000-10-31

    Charm and bottom production near threshold is sensitive to the multi-quark, gluonic, and hidden-color correlations of hadronic and nuclear wavefunctions in QCD since all of the target's constituents must act coherently within the small interaction volume of the heavy quark production subprocess. Although such multi-parton subprocess cross sections are suppressed by powers of 1=m{sub Q}{sup 2}, they have less phase-space suppression and can dominate the contributions of the leading-twist single-gluon subprocesses in the threshold regime. The small rates for open and hidden charm photoproduction at threshold call for a dedicated facility.

  8. Who disrupts from placement in foster and kinship care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Patricia; Price, Joe M; Reid, John B; Landsverk, John; Fisher, Phillip A; Stoolmiller, Mike

    2006-04-01

    To identify reliable, inexpensive predictors of foster care placement disruption that could be used to assess risk of placement failure. Using the Parent Daily Report Checklist (PDR), foster or kinship parents of 246 children (5-12 years old) in California were interviewed three times about whether or not their foster child engaged in any of the 30 problem behaviors during the previous 24 h. PDR was conducted during telephone contacts (5-10 min each) that occurred from 1 to 3 days apart at baseline. Disruptions were tracked for the subsequent 12 months. Other potential predictors of disruption were examined, including the child's age, gender, and ethnicity, the foster parent's ethnicity, the number of other children in the foster home, and the type of placement (kin or non-kin). Foster/kin parents reported an average of 5.77 child problems per day on the PDR checklist. The number of problem behaviors was linearly related to the child's risk of placement disruption during the subsequent year. The threshold for the number of problem behaviors per day that foster and kinship parents tolerated without increased risk of placement disruption for these latency-aged children was 6 or fewer. Children in non-kin placements were more likely to disrupt than those in kinship placements. There was a trend for increased risk of disruption as the number of children in the home increased. The PDR Checklist may be useful in predicting which placements are at most risk of future disruption, allowing for targeted services and supports.

  9. Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    With, K.A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States); Crist, T.O. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-12-01

    Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitat fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.

  10. Catastrophic Varus Collapse of the Tibia in Obese Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehring, Thomas K; Fehring, Keith A; Anderson, Lucas A; Otero, Jesse E; Springer, Bryan D

    2017-05-01

    Mechanical complications have been underemphasized in reports on total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in obese patients. Noticing an increased prevalence of varus collapse of the tibia in obese total knee patients, we sought to determine if variability in proximal tibial cancellous bone strength played a role in failure. We attempted to define a cancellous threshold above which alternative methods of fixation should be used. One thousand one hundred six revision TKAs from 2004-2014 identified 35 patients with varus collapse of the tibia, defined as a change in component position of >10°. Variables analyzed included weight, alignment, component size, and proximal tibial bone stress. Postoperative alignment was compared with prerevision alignment. To calculate tibial stress the following formula was used: mass (kg) × acceleration of gravity (9.8 m/s 2 )/tibial surface area (mm 2 ) = pascals or N/M 2 . Twenty-nine of 35 patients weighed >200 lbs, whereas 17 of 35 patients weighed >250 lbs (range 130-354 lbs). Average body mass index was 40.5 kg/m 2 (range 24-61 kg/m 2 ). Twenty-seven of 35 failed tibial components were in the lower half of the manufacturer's tibial size offering. Postsurgical alignment averaged 4.9° valgus (range 2° varus-7° valgus) and collapsed an average of 14.9° (range 10°-22°) before revision. Proximal tibial bone stress averaged 334,324 Pascals (range 188,524-601,416). Twenty-five of 35 patients had proximal tibial bone stress >300,000 Pascals. Despite good initial primary TKA alignment, we report catastrophic varus collapse of tibial components in obese patients with small tibial components. When a cancellous threshold of 300,000 Pascals is exceeded, strong consideration should be given to either optimizing the patient's weight or using a longer tibial stem to dissipate forces on proximal tibia. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

    2015-11-01

    Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  12. Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Marotta

    Full Text Available Abstract Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

  13. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  14. Parton distributions with threshold resummation

    CERN Document Server

    Bonvini, Marco; Rojo, Juan; Rottoli, Luca; Ubiali, Maria; Ball, Richard D.; Bertone, Valerio; Carrazza, Stefano; Hartland, Nathan P.

    2015-01-01

    We construct a set of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in which fixed-order NLO and NNLO calculations are supplemented with soft-gluon (threshold) resummation up to NLL and NNLL accuracy respectively, suitable for use in conjunction with any QCD calculation in which threshold resummation is included at the level of partonic cross sections. These resummed PDF sets, based on the NNPDF3.0 analysis, are extracted from deep-inelastic scattering, Drell-Yan, and top quark pair production data, for which resummed calculations can be consistently used. We find that, close to threshold, the inclusion of resummed PDFs can partially compensate the enhancement in resummed matrix elements, leading to resummed hadronic cross-sections closer to the fixed-order calculation. On the other hand, far from threshold, resummed PDFs reduce to their fixed-order counterparts. Our results demonstrate the need for a consistent use of resummed PDFs in resummed calculations.

  15. A thermal catastrophe in a resonantly heated coronal loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, P.C.H.; Kuperus, M.

    1983-01-01

    A theory for the thermal stability of hot coronal loops is presented, which is based on the resonant electrodynamic heating theory of Ionson (1982) and the evaporation/condensation scenario of Krall and Antiochos (1980). The theory predicts that gradual changes in the length of a loop or in its magnetic field strength can trigger catastrophic changes in the X-ray visibility of the loop, without the need for a change in the magnetic field topology. A natural explanation is thereby given for the observations of X-ray brightenings in loops and loop evacuations with coronal rain. (Auth.)

  16. Dissipative tunneling and orthogonality catastrophe in molecular transistors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braig, S.; Flensberg, Karsten

    2004-01-01

    of the charge on the molecule to the vibrational modes of the environment has on the I-V characteristics. We find that, for comparable characteristic length scales of the van der Waals and electrostatic interaction of the molecule with the environmental vibrational modes, the I-V characteristics...... are qualitatively changed from what one would expect from orthogonality catastrophe and develop a steplike discontinuity at the onset of conduction. For the case of very different length scales, we recover dissipation consistent with modeling the electrostatic forces as an external influence on the system comprised...

  17. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors....

  18. Catastrophic intramedullary abscess caused by a missed congenital dermal sinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-03-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. Therefore, further imaging work-up or consultation with a pediatric neurosurgeon is recommended following discovery of any atypical-looking dimples in the midline.

  19. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  20. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  1. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  2. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock - a case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieba, Bozena; Wegrzyn, Agnieszka; Mital, Andrzej; Szczepińska-Nowak, Maria; Lewicki, Lukasz; Chmielecki, Michał; Puchalski, Wiesław; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej

    2009-07-01

    A case of a 29-year-old woman 18 days after delivery with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome secondary (CAPS) due to undiagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus, leading to cardiogenic shock is reported. Laboratory evaluation revealed increased anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, antinuclear antibody and thrombocytopenia. Left ventricular ejection fraction was 20%, neurologic deficit and acute renal failure were also present. Cardiac involvement is common in CAPS, but cardiomyopathy due to microvascular thrombosis is rare. CAPS should be considered as a cause of acute heart failure in a women with systemic lupus erythematosus. In the presented case early therapy with anticoagulants, steroids, immunoglobulins and plasmaferesis was beneficial.

  3. Conceptions of nuclear threshold status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quester, G.H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews some alternative definitions of nuclear threshold status. Each of them is important, and major analytical confusions would result if one sense of the term is mistaken for another. The motives for nations entering into such threshold status are a blend of civilian and military gains, and of national interests versus parochial or bureaucratic interests. A portion of the rationale for threshold status emerges inevitably from the pursuit of economic goals, and another portion is made more attraction by the derives of the domestic political process. Yet the impact on international security cannot be dismissed, especially where conflicts among the states remain real. Among the military or national security motives are basic deterrence, psychological warfare, war-fighting and, more generally, national prestige. In the end, as the threshold phenomenon is assayed for lessons concerning the role of nuclear weapons more generally in international relations and security, one might conclude that threshold status and outright proliferation coverage to a degree in the motives for all of the states involved and in the advantages attained. As this paper has illustrated, nuclear threshold status is more subtle and more ambiguous than outright proliferation, and it takes considerable time to sort out the complexities. Yet the world has now had a substantial amount of time to deal with this ambiguous status, and this may tempt more states to exploit it

  4. Threshold models in radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, D.G.; Li, P.

    1998-01-01

    Cancer incidence and mortality data from the atomic bomb survivors cohort has been analyzed to allow for the possibility of a threshold dose response. The same dose-response models as used in the original papers were fit to the data. The estimated cancer incidence from the fitted models over-predicted the observed cancer incidence in the lowest exposure group. This is consistent with a threshold or nonlinear dose-response at low-doses. Thresholds were added to the dose-response models and the range of possible thresholds is shown for both solid tumor cancers as well as the different leukemia types. This analysis suggests that the A-bomb cancer incidence data agree more with a threshold or nonlinear dose-response model than a purely linear model although the linear model is statistically equivalent. This observation is not found with the mortality data. For both the incidence data and the mortality data the addition of a threshold term significantly improves the fit to the linear or linear-quadratic dose response for both total leukemias and also for the leukemia subtypes of ALL, AML, and CML

  5. Tactile thresholds in healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metka Moharić

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The assessment of sensory thresholds provides a method of examining the function of peripheral nerve fibers and their central connections. Quantitative sensory testing is a variant of conventional sensory testing wherein the goal is the quantification of the level of stimulation needed to produce a particular sensation. While thermal and vibratory testing are established methods in assessment of sensory thresholds, assessment of tactile thresholds with monofilaments is not used routinely. The purpose of this study was to assess the tactile thresholds in normal healthy population.Methods: In 39 healthy volunteers (19 men aged 21 to 71 years, tactile thresholds were assessed with von Frey’s hair in 7 parts of the body bilaterally.Results: We found touch sensitivity not to be dependent on age or gender. The right side was significantly more sensitive in the lateral part of the leg (p=0.011 and the left side in the medial part of the arm (p=0.022. There were also significant differences between sites (p<0.001, whereby distal parts of the body were more sensitive.Conclusions: Von Frey filaments allow the estimation of tactile thresholds without the need for complicated instrumentation.

  6. Precipitation thresholds for landslide occurrence near Seattle, Mukilteo, and Everett, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheevel, Caroline R.; Baum, Rex L.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Smith, Joel B.

    2017-04-27

    Shallow landslides along coastal bluffs frequently occur in the railway corridor between Seattle and Everett, Washington. These slides disrupt passenger rail service, both because of required track maintenance and because the railroad owner, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, does not allow passenger travel for 48 hours after a disruptive landslide. Sound Transit, which operates commuter trains in the corridor, is interested in a decision-making tool to help preemptively cancel passenger railway service in dangerous conditions and reallocate resources to alternative transportation.Statistical analysis showed that a majority of landslides along the Seattle-Everett Corridor are strongly correlated with antecedent rainfall, but that 21-37 percent of recorded landslide dates experienced less than 1 inch of precipitation in the 3 days preceding the landslide and less than 4 inches of rain in the 15 days prior to the preceding 3 days. We developed two empirical thresholds to identify precipitation conditions correlated with landslide occurrence. The two thresholds are defined as P3 = 2.16-0.44P15 and P3 = 2.16-0.22P32, where P3 is the cumulative precipitation in the 3 days prior to the considered date and P15 or P32 is the cumulative precipitation in the 15 days or 32 days prior to P3 (all measurements given in inches). The two thresholds, when compared to a previously developed threshold, quantitatively improve the prediction rate.We also investigated rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds to determine whether revision would improve identification of moderate-intensity, landslide-producing storms. New, optimized ID thresholds evaluate rainstorms lasting at least 12 hours and identify landslide-inducing storms that were typically missed by previously published ID thresholds. The main advantage of the ID thresholds appears when they are combined with recent-antecedent thresholds because rainfall conditions that exceed both threshold types are more likely to induce

  7. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  8. AIDS and economic disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, G S

    1996-10-01

    Child and adult mortality increases in Cameroon due to AIDS will cause life expectancy to fall by as many as 8 years, from just over 50 to just over 40 years. The social consequences of AIDS include grieving, stigmatizing, and the large-scale disruption of family and community structures. Widows and widowers due to AIDS mortality are affected differently from each other, with the widows of men who have died from AIDS facing potential sociocultural and economic hardship. The economic consequences of AIDS in Bamenda and elsewhere in Cameroon will occur mainly through the epidemic's impact upon the size and quality of the labor force. By killing a significant number of male and female workers aged 15-60 years, AIDS will reduce the size and growth rate of the labor force. Despite, rapid population growth, labor is a relatively scarce factor of agricultural production in Cameroon. The spread of HIV in rural areas, combined with the intensity and scarcity of agricultural labor, suggests that AIDS will have an impact upon production and per capita incomes, and increase the already high rates of hunger and absolute poverty. In the context of HIV/AIDS, young people must be empowered to make informed decisions about sex. Adolescents are most at risk because they tend to experiment more than married couples and have many sex partners. Sexual activity begins as early as age 8 years and penetrative sex at age 13 or earlier. The author considers the factors which encourage adolescents to engage in sexual activities.

  9. Disrupting Ethnography through Rhizoanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Masny

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article interrogates principles of ethnography in education proposed by Mills and Morton: raw tellings, analytic pattern, vignette and empathy. This article adopts a position that is uncomfortable, unconventional and interesting. It involves a deterritorialization/ rupture of ethnography in education in order to reterritorialize a different concept: rhizoanalysis, a way to position theory and data that is multilayered, complex and messy. Rhizoanalysis, the main focus of this article is not a method. It is an approach to research conditioned by a reality in which Deleuze and Guattari disrupt representation, interpretation and subjectivity. In this article, Multiple Literacies Theory, a theoretical and practical framework, becomes a lens to examine a rhizomatic study of a Korean family recently arrived to Australia and attending English as a second language classes. Observations and interviews recorded the daily lives of the family. The vignettes were selected by reading data intensively and immanently through a process of palpation, an innovative approach to educational research. Rhizoanalysis proposes to abandon the given and invent different ways of thinking about and doing research and what might happen when reading data differently, intensively and immanently, through Multiple Literacies Theory. Rhizoanalysis, a game-changer in the way research can be conducted, affords a different lens to tackle issues in education through research.

  10. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  11. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  12. [Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilas, Ljiljana Todorović; Bajkin, Ivana; Icin, Tijana; Paro, Jovanka Novaković; Zavisić, Branka Kovacev

    2012-01-01

    Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger a utoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction. is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consuquences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima). The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  13. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  14. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  15. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems.

  16. Effect of catastrophic wildfires on asthmatic outcomes in obese children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Kevin; Chen, Lie; Tse, Mabel; Zuraw, Bruce; Christiansen, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Background Air pollutants from wildfires and obesity independently exacerbate asthma, yet no study has determined the combined effects of these 2 variables on asthma outcomes. Objective To determine the effect of 2 catastrophic wildfires affecting the Southern California region (in 2003 and 2007) on several asthma outcomes in a cohort of children. Methods To investigate the association between wildfire exposure and asthma outcomes, we stratified our study population by body mass index categories (underweight, normal, overweight, and obese) and zip codes (to distinguish individuals who were closer to the fires vs farther away). The primary outcome was the prevalence of physician-dispensed short-acting β-agonist (SABAs). Secondary outcomes included the rate of emergency department visits and/or hospitalizations for asthma, the frequency of oral corticosteroid use for asthma, and number of new diagnoses of asthma. Results A total of 2,195 and 3,965 asthmatic children were analyzed as part of our retrospective cohort during the 2003 and 2007 wildfires, respectively. SABA dispensing increased the most in the obese group after the 2003 wildfires (P wildfire. Conclusion Catastrophic wildfires lead to worsening asthma outcomes, particularly in obese individuals. This study gives further evidence of a link between obesity and asthma severity and suggests that air pollutants released during wildfires can have substantial detrimental effects on asthma control. PMID:25747784

  17. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  18. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households

    OpenAIRE

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Background Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. Methods This study used data from the Q...

  19. State Versus Trait: Validating State Assessment of Child and Parental Catastrophic Thinking About Children's Acute Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Hannah; Birnie, Kathryn A; Noel, Melanie; Vervoort, Tine; Goubert, Liesbet; Boerner, Katelynn E; Chambers, Christine T; Caes, Line

    2017-04-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as one of the most robust predictors of child pain outcomes. Although assessments of state (ie, situation-specific) pain catastrophizing in children and parents are often used, their psychometric properties are unknown. This study aimed to assess factor structure, reliability, and predictive validity of state versions of Pain Catastrophizing Scales for children and parents relative to corresponding trait versions for child and parental pain-related outcomes. Data were pooled from 8 experimental pain studies in which child and/or parent state catastrophizing (measured immediately before application of a pain stimulus) and trait catastrophizing were assessed in community-based samples of children aged 8 to 18 years (N = 689) and their parents (N = 888) in Dutch or English. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to examine the underlying factor structure of the state versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for parents/children, revealing a single factor solution that explained 55.53% of the variance for children and 49.72% for parents. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to examine relative influence of state versus trait catastrophizing on child and parent pain-related outcomes. Child and parent state catastrophizing were significantly associated with child pain intensity, child state anxiety and parental distress. State catastrophizing scores showed stronger associations than trait scores for most outcomes. This article presents the psychometric properties of state pain catastrophizing measures for children and parents. Findings underscore the importance of assessing state pain catastrophizing about acute pain experiences in parents and children, and provide a basis for robust and valid measurement of state pain catastrophizing about child pain. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Factors associated with increased risk for pain catastrophizing in patients with chronic neck pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang Jun; Lee, Rippy; Yoon, Duck Mi; Yoon, Kyung Bong; Kim, Kiwook; Kim, Shin Hyung

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Pain catastrophizing is becoming increasingly recognized as a clinically important psychological factor in chronic musculoskeletal pain. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we have identified factors associated with an increased risk for pain catastrophizing in chronic neck pain (CNP) patients. We obtained data from our medical database on 331 patients who were treated for neck pain as their chief complaint at our clinic. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to define a high pain catastrophizing state (PCS score ≥21) in this study. Patient demographics, pain-related factors, and psychological factors were evaluated with logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of high pain catastrophizing among patients with CNP. A total of 256 patients with CNP satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were included in the analyses. The median PCS score was 16 (range, 0–45), and 86 of 256 patients (33.5%) reported a PCS score ≥21. In multivariate analysis, high pain intensity, clinical insomnia, and a high level of depression/anxiety were strongly associated with high pain catastrophizing in patients with CNP. Depression was the strongest predictor of high pain catastrophizing, with an odds ratio of 7.35 (95% confidence interval 2.23–24.22). High pain catastrophizing was not significantly related to age, gender, comorbidities, or neck pain-related physical symptoms. In conclusion, poor psychological states should be addressed as an important part of pain management in CNP patients who are susceptible to high pain catastrophizing. PMID:27631217

  1. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W; Quartana, Phillip J; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y

    2008-04-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only patients described by certain combinations of pain catastrophizing and physiological indexes would report pronounced chronic pain. Chronic low back pain patients (N = 97) participated in anger recall and sadness recall interviews while lower paraspinal and trapezius EMG and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR) were recorded. Mediation models were not supported. However, pain catastrophizing significantly interacted with resting lower paraspinal muscle tension to predict pain severity such that high catastrophizers with high resting lower paraspinal tension reported the greatest pain. Pain catastrophizing also interacted with SBP, DBP and HR reactivity to affect pain such that high catastrophizers who showed low cardiovascular reactivity to the interviews reported the greatest pain. Results support a multi-variable profile approach to identifying pain catastrophizers at greatest risk for pain severity by virtue of resting muscle tension and cardiovascular stress function.

  2. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Suso-Ribera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation. If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  3. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  4. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  5. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  6. Thigmotaxis Mediates Trail Odour Disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stringer, Lloyd D; Corn, Joshua E; Sik Roh, Hyun; Jiménez-Pérez, Alfredo; Manning, Lee-Anne M; Harper, Aimee R; Suckling, David M

    2017-05-10

    Disruption of foraging using oversupply of ant trail pheromones is a novel pest management application under investigation. It presents an opportunity to investigate the interaction of sensory modalities by removal of one of the modes. Superficially similar to sex pheromone-based mating disruption in moths, ant trail pheromone disruption lacks an equivalent mechanistic understanding of how the ants respond to an oversupply of their trail pheromone. Since significant compromise of one sensory modality essential for trail following (chemotaxis) has been demonstrated, we hypothesised that other sensory modalities such as thigmotaxis could act to reduce the impact on olfactory disruption of foraging behaviour. To test this, we provided a physical stimulus of thread to aid trailing by Argentine ants otherwise under disruptive pheromone concentrations. Trail following success was higher using a physical cue. While trail integrity reduced under continuous over-supply of trail pheromone delivered directly on the thread, provision of a physical cue in the form of thread slightly improved trail following and mediated trail disruption from high concentrations upwind. Our results indicate that ants are able to use physical structures to reduce but not eliminate the effects of trail pheromone disruption.

  7. Sleep disruption in chronic rhinosinusitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdavinia, Mahboobeh; Schleimer, Robert P; Keshavarzian, Ali

    2017-05-01

    Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a common disease of the upper airways and paranasal sinuses with a marked decline in quality of life (QOL). CRS patients suffer from sleep disruption at a significantly higher proportion (60 to 75%) than in the general population (8-18 %). Sleep disruption in CRS causes decreased QOL and is linked to poor functional outcomes such as impaired cognitive function and depression. Areas covered: A systematic PubMed/Medline search was done to assess the results of studies that have investigated sleep and sleep disturbances in CRS. Expert commentary: These studies reported sleep disruption in most CRS patients. The main risk factors for sleep disruption in CRS include allergic rhinitis, smoking, and high SNOT-22 total scores. The literature is inconsistent with regard to the prevalence of sleep-related disordered breathing (e.g. obstructive sleep apnea) in CRS patients. Although nasal obstruction is linked to sleep disruption, the extent of sleep disruption in CRS seems to expand beyond that expected from physical blockage of the upper airways alone. Despite the high prevalence of sleep disruption in CRS, and its detrimental effects on QOL, the literature contains a paucity of studies that have investigated the mechanisms underlying this major problem in CRS.

  8. DOE approach to threshold quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Kluk, A.F.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC)

    1985-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Ideally, the threshold must be set high enough to significantly reduce the amount of waste requiring special handling. It must also be low enough so that waste at the threshold quantity poses a very small health risk and multiple exposures to such waste would still constitute a small health risk. It should also be practical to segregate waste above or below the threshold quantity using available instrumentation. Guidance is being prepared to aid DOE sites in establishing threshold quantity values based on pathways analysis using site-specific parameters (waste stream characteristics, maximum exposed individual, population considerations, and site specific parameters such as rainfall, etc.). A guidance dose of between 0.001 to 1.0 mSv/y (0.1 to 100 mrem/y) was recommended with 0.3 mSv/y (30 mrem/y) selected as the guidance dose upon which to base calculations. Several tasks were identified, beginning with the selection of a suitable pathway model for relating dose to the concentration of radioactivity in the waste. Threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose were determined for waste disposal sites at a selected humid and arid site. Finally, cost-benefit considerations at the example sites were addressed. The results of the various tasks are summarized and the relationship of this effort with related developments at other agencies discussed

  9. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  10. Thresholds in chemical respiratory sensitisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Stella A; Arts, Josje H E; Ehnes, Colin; Hindle, Stuart; Hollnagel, Heli M; Poole, Alan; Suto, Hidenori; Kimber, Ian

    2015-07-03

    There is a continuing interest in determining whether it is possible to identify thresholds for chemical allergy. Here allergic sensitisation of the respiratory tract by chemicals is considered in this context. This is an important occupational health problem, being associated with rhinitis and asthma, and in addition provides toxicologists and risk assessors with a number of challenges. In common with all forms of allergic disease chemical respiratory allergy develops in two phases. In the first (induction) phase exposure to a chemical allergen (by an appropriate route of exposure) causes immunological priming and sensitisation of the respiratory tract. The second (elicitation) phase is triggered if a sensitised subject is exposed subsequently to the same chemical allergen via inhalation. A secondary immune response will be provoked in the respiratory tract resulting in inflammation and the signs and symptoms of a respiratory hypersensitivity reaction. In this article attention has focused on the identification of threshold values during the acquisition of sensitisation. Current mechanistic understanding of allergy is such that it can be assumed that the development of sensitisation (and also the elicitation of an allergic reaction) is a threshold phenomenon; there will be levels of exposure below which sensitisation will not be acquired. That is, all immune responses, including allergic sensitisation, have threshold requirement for the availability of antigen/allergen, below which a response will fail to develop. The issue addressed here is whether there are methods available or clinical/epidemiological data that permit the identification of such thresholds. This document reviews briefly relevant human studies of occupational asthma, and experimental models that have been developed (or are being developed) for the identification and characterisation of chemical respiratory allergens. The main conclusion drawn is that although there is evidence that the

  11. On computational Gestalt detection thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grompone von Gioi, Rafael; Jakubowicz, Jérémie

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to show some recent developments of computational Gestalt theory, as pioneered by Desolneux, Moisan and Morel. The new results allow to predict much more accurately the detection thresholds. This step is unavoidable if one wants to analyze visual detection thresholds in the light of computational Gestalt theory. The paper first recalls the main elements of computational Gestalt theory. It points out a precision issue in this theory, essentially due to the use of discrete probability distributions. It then proposes to overcome this issue by using continuous probability distributions and illustrates it on the meaningful alignment detector of Desolneux et al.

  12. Nuclear threshold effects and neutron strength function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hategan, Cornel; Comisel, Horia

    2003-01-01

    One proves that a Nuclear Threshold Effect is dependent, via Neutron Strength Function, on Spectroscopy of Ancestral Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the Nuclear Threshold Effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function. Evidence for relation of Nuclear Threshold Effects to Neutron Strength Functions is obtained from Isotopic Threshold Effect and Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly. The empirical and computational analysis of the Isotopic Threshold Effect and of the Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly demonstrate their close relationship to Neutron Strength Functions. It was established that the Nuclear Threshold Effects depend, in addition to genuine Nuclear Reaction Mechanisms, on Spectroscopy of (Ancestral) Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function, in their dependence on mass number. This result constitutes also a proof that the origins of these threshold effects are Neutron Single Particle States at zero energy. (author)

  13. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  15. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  16. Astronomy and catastrophes through myth and old texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, E.; Ćirković, M.; Stojić, Igor; Gavrilović, Nataša

    In the old myths and iconographies there are some motives that indicate at least one cataclysmic event that influenced many old religions and myths, that could be linked to the impact of the celestial object. We investigate the hypothesis of coherent catastrophism put forward in recent years by Clube, Bailey, Napier and others from both astrobiological and culturogical points of view. The conventional idea that the quasi-periodic break-up of celestial bodies influence terrestrial conditions can today be placed in both wider (astro-biological) and deeper (historico-culturological) context. In particular, we point out that the link between the Neolithic history of astronomy, and origin of Mithraism. We speculate that the main icon of Mithraic religion could pinpoint an event that happened around 4000 BC, when the spring equinox entered the constellation of Taurus. We also, link some motives in other old religions and myths to the same event, or to some similar events that inspired those myths.

  17. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  18. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  19. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  20. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  1. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  2. Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, G F; Lindop, N A; Edmunds, W J; Nokes, D J

    2001-05-01

    Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time, 'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

  3. Genomic catastrophism and the origin of vertebrate immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A L

    1999-01-01

    Genomic catastrophism is the belief that unique genetic events, unlike those observed in recent evolutionary history, played a key role in the origin of vertebrate adaptations. Catastrophist hypotheses have been particularly popular is accounting for the origin of vertebrate specific immunity. Two major such hypotheses involve genome duplication by polyploidization and horizontal gene transfer. Recent analyses lead to decisive rejection of the widely cited hypothesis that the vertebrate genome underwent two rounds of genome duplication, and theoretical considerations suggest that genome duplication is unlikely to lead to new adaptive advances. Likewise, the evidence that key elements of the vertebrate immune system arose by horizontal transfer from a bacterium or by incorporation of a transposable element into the vertebrate genome remains relatively weak. Thus, at present, a uniformitarian view of the origin of the vertebrate immune system seems more reasonable, especially given the longer time-frame for vertebrate evolution indicated by molecular data.

  4. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  5. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  6. Ultrasonic disruption of algae cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, P. M.; Nowotarski, K.; Joyce, E. M.; Mason, T. J.

    2012-05-01

    During last decade there has been increasing interest in the production of sustainable fuels from microalgae (R.H. Wijffels and M.J. Barbosa, 2010; Singh et al 2011; D.H. Lee 2011). The aim of this project was to determine if algal cells can be ultrasonically disrupted to release lipids for biofuel production. Ultrasonic disruption of two unicellular algal species: Dunnaliella salina and Nannochloropsis oculata was investigated using a 20 kHz probe. Haemocytometer, optical density, UV-Vis, fluoro-spectrophotometer and confocal microscopy results demonstrated complete cell destruction of Dunaliella salina within 16 minutes of sonication. Results obtained for Nannochloropsis oculata differed in that ultrasound dispersed clumped cells with little or no cell disruption, as observed by haemocytometer and confocal microscopy analysis. However, UV-Visible and fluoro-spectrophotometer analysis indicated chlorophyll release following sonication, suggesting some cell disruption had occurred.

  7. A Network Disruption Modeling Tool

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leinart, James

    1998-01-01

    Given that network disruption has been identified as a military objective and C2-attack has been identified as the mechanism to accomplish this objective, a target set must be acquired and priorities...

  8. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  9. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  10. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  11. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  12. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  13. Disruptive innovation: the demand side.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havighurst, Clark C

    2008-01-01

    The notion of disruptive innovation provides a welcome framework for considering the prospects for low-cost alternatives in American medicine. Such innovations as have been seen, however, are largely the result of demand by patients paying their own bills because they have high-deductible coverage or are uninsured. Many other cost-saving innovations are discouraged by financing systems that are themselves largely immune to competition from disruptive innovators.

  14. Tidal Disruption of Strengthless Rubble Piles: A Dimensional Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Joseph M.; Rettig, Terrence W.

    1998-01-01

    A relatively simple prescription for estimating the number of debris clumps (n) that form after a catastrophic tidal disruption event is presented. Following the breakup event, it is assumed that the individual debris particles follow keplerian orbits about the planet until the debris' gravitational contraction timescale (t(sub c)) becomes shorter than its orbital spreading timescale (t(sub s)). When the two timescales become comparable, self-gravity breaks up the debris train into n = L/D clumps, which is the debris length/diameter ratio at that instant. The clumps subsequently orbit the planet independent of each other. The predicted number of clumps n is in good agreement with more sophisticated N-body treatments of tidal breakup for parabolic encounters, and the dependence of n upon the progenitor's density as well as its orbit is also mapped out for hyperbolic encounters. These findings may be used to further constrain both the orbits and densities of the tidally disrupted bodies that struck Callisto and Ganymede. A cursory analysis shows that the Gomul and Gipul crater chains on Callisto, which have the greatest number of craters among the known chains, were formed by projectiles having comet-like densities estimated at rho(sub o) < 1 gm/cc.

  15. Thresholds models of technological transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeppini, P.; Frenken, K.; Kupers, R.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic review of seven threshold models of technological transitions from physics, biology, economics and sociology. The very same phenomenon of a technological transition can be explained by very different logics, ranging from economic explanations based on price, performance and

  16. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wood, Angela M; Kaptoge, Stephen; Butterworth, Adam S

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers withou...

  17. Weights of Exact Threshold Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babai, László; Hansen, Kristoffer Arnsfelt; Podolskii, Vladimir V.

    2010-01-01

    We consider Boolean exact threshold functions defined by linear equations, and in general degree d polynomials. We give upper and lower bounds on the maximum magnitude (absolute value) of the coefficients required to represent such functions. These bounds are very close and in the linear case in ...... leave a substantial gap, a challenge for future work....

  18. Threshold quantities for helminth infections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesterbeek, J.A.P.; Roberts, M.G.

    1995-01-01

    For parasites with a clearly defined life-cycle we give threshold quantities that determine the stability of the parasite-free steady state for autonomous and periodic deterministic systems formulated in terms of mean parasite burdens. We discuss the biological interpretations of the quantities, how

  19. Percolation Threshold Parameters of Fluids

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Škvor, J.; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 79, č. 4 (2009), 041141-041147 ISSN 1539-3755 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : percolation threshold * universality * infinite cluster Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 2.400, year: 2009

  20. Threshold enhancement of diphoton resonances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aoife Bharucha

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available We revisit a mechanism to enhance the decay width of (pseudo-scalar resonances to photon pairs when the process is mediated by loops of charged fermions produced near threshold. Motivated by the recent LHC data, indicating the presence of an excess in the diphoton spectrum at approximately 750 GeV, we illustrate this threshold enhancement mechanism in the case of a 750 GeV pseudoscalar boson A with a two-photon decay mediated by a charged and uncolored fermion having a mass at the 12MA threshold and a small decay width, <1 MeV. The implications of such a threshold enhancement are discussed in two explicit scenarios: i the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model in which the A state is produced via the top quark mediated gluon fusion process and decays into photons predominantly through loops of charginos with masses close to 12MA and ii a two Higgs doublet model in which A is again produced by gluon fusion but decays into photons through loops of vector-like charged heavy leptons. In both these scenarios, while the mass of the charged fermion has to be adjusted to be extremely close to half of the A resonance mass, the small total widths are naturally obtained if only suppressed three-body decay channels occur. Finally, the implications of some of these scenarios for dark matter are discussed.

  1. Crossing Thresholds in Academic Reading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rob

    2013-01-01

    This paper looks at the conceptual thresholds in relation to academic reading which might be crossed by undergraduate English Literature students. It is part of a wider study following 16 students through three years of undergraduate study. It uses theoretical ideas from Bakhtin and Foucault to analyse interviews with English lecturers. It…

  2. Disruption of the terrestrial plant ecosystem at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, western interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschudy, R.H.; Pillmore, C.L.; Orth, C.J.; Gilmore, J.S.; Knight, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    The palynologically defined Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the western interior of North America occurs at the top of an iridium-rich clay layer. The boundary is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of certain pollen species, immediately followed by a pronounced, geologically brief change in the ratio of fern spores to angiosperm pollen. The occurrence of these changes at two widely separated sites implies continentwide disruption of the terrestrial ecosystem, probably caused by a major catastrophic event at the end of the period.

  3. Wing pathology of white-nose syndrome in bats suggests life-threatening disruption of physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryan, Paul M.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Boyles, Justin G.; Blehert, David S.

    2010-01-01

    White-nose syndrome (WNS) is causing unprecedented declines in several species of North American bats. The characteristic lesions of WNS are caused by the fungus Geomyces destructans, which erodes and replaces the living skin of bats while they hibernate. It is unknown how this infection kills the bats. We review here the unique physiological importance of wings to hibernating bats in relation to the damage caused by G. destructans and propose that mortality is caused by catastrophic disruption of wing-dependent physiological functions. Mechanisms of disease associated with G. destructans seem specific to hibernating bats and are most analogous to disease caused by chytrid fungus in amphibians.

  4. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit union...

  5. The Relation Between Catastrophizing and Occupational Disability in Individuals with Major Depression: Concurrent and Prospective Associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Heather; Thibault, Pascal; Ellis, Tamra; Moore, Emily; Sullivan, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Background Catastrophic thinking has been associated with occupational disability in individuals with debilitating pain conditions. The relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability has not been previously examined in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions. The present study examined the relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability in individuals with major depression. Methods The study sample consisted of 80 work-disabled individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) who were referred to an occupational rehabilitation service. Participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity, catastrophic thinking and occupational disability at admission and termination of a rehabilitation intervention. Return-to-work outcomes were assessed 1 month following the termination of the rehabilitation intervention. Results Cross-sectional analyses of admission data revealed that catastrophic thinking contributed significant variance to the prediction of self-reported occupational disability, beyond the variance accounted for by depressive symptom severity. Prospective analyses revealed that reductions in catastrophic thinking predicted successful return to work following the rehabilitation intervention, beyond the variance accounted for by reductions in depressive symptom severity. Conclusions The findings suggest that catastrophic thinking is a determinant of occupational disability in individuals with major depressive disorder. The findings further suggest that interventions designed to reduce catastrophic thinking might promote occupational re-integration in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions.

  6. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  7. Parent pain catastrophizing predicts child depressive symptoms in youth with sickle cell disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein-Leever, Alana; Cohen, Lindsey L; Dampier, Carlton; Sil, Soumitri

    2018-03-07

    Youth with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk for recurrent pain and depressive symptoms, both of which contribute to poorer health outcomes. Furthermore, youth and family coping with child pain, including pain catastrophizing, is known to be associated with poorer psychosocial adjustment and greater functional disability among youth with SCD. In particular, child catastrophizing about pain and parent catastrophizing about their child's pain have been linked to increased pain and depressive symptoms in youth with chronic pain conditions. Despite this, the impact of child and parent pain catastrophizing on depressive symptoms remains unexplored in pediatric SCD. The current study evaluated the predictive value of child and parent pain catastrophizing on child depressive symptoms in a sample of 100 youth with SCD. Differences in child and parent pain catastrophizing across youth with and without clinically elevated depressive symptoms were also examined. Pain frequency and parent and child pain catastrophizing accounted for 35.9% of variance in child depressive symptoms, with only pain frequency and parent pain catastrophizing emerging as unique predictors of clinically elevated depressive symptoms. Additionally, parents of youth with clinically elevated depressive symptoms showed increased helplessness relative to parents of youth with minimal to mild depressive symptoms. Findings support the value of depression screening and interventions to promote parent self-efficacy in managing childhood SCD pain. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  9. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  10. Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour en 2006). Couverture du livre Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour. Directeur(s):. David Glover et Timothy Jessup. Maison(s) d'édition: ISEAS, CRDI. 1 janvier 1999. ISBN : 9812300066. 160 pages. e-ISBN : 1552503321.

  11. Influence of Photospheric Magnetic Conditions on the Catastrophic Behaviors of Flux Ropes in Solar Active Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui; Liu, Jiajia, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Since only the magnetic conditions at the photosphere can be routinely observed in current observations, it is of great significance to determine the influences of photospheric magnetic conditions on solar eruptive activities. Previous studies about catastrophe indicated that the magnetic system consisting of a flux rope in a partially open bipolar field is subject to catastrophe, but not if the bipolar field is completely closed under the same specified photospheric conditions. In order to investigate the influence of the photospheric magnetic conditions on the catastrophic behavior of this system, we expand upon the 2.5-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic model in Cartesian coordinates to simulate the evolution of the equilibrium states of the system under different photospheric flux distributions. Our simulation results reveal that a catastrophe occurs only when the photospheric flux is not concentrated too much toward the polarity inversion line and the source regions of the bipolar field are not too weak; otherwise no catastrophe occurs. As a result, under certain photospheric conditions, a catastrophe could take place in a completely closed configuration, whereas it ceases to exist in a partially open configuration. This indicates that whether the background field is completely closed or partially open is not the only necessary condition for the existence of catastrophe, and that the photospheric conditions also play a crucial role in the catastrophic behavior of the flux rope system.

  12. Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather E. Lintz; Bruce McCune; Andrew N. Gray; Katherine A. McCulloh

    2011-01-01

    Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation...

  13. 2-(3-Methoxyphenyl)-5-methyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4(1H)-one (HKL-1) induces G2/M arrest and mitotic catastrophe in human leukemia HL-60 cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsu, Mei-Hua; Liu, Chin-Yu; Lin, Chiao-Min; Chen, Yen-Jung; Chen, Chun-Jen; Lin, Yu-Fu; Huang, Li-Jiau [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan, ROC (China); Lee, Kuo-Hsiung [Natural Products Research Laboratories, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Chinese Medicine Research and Development Center, China Medical University and Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan, ROC (China); Kuo, Sheng-Chu, E-mail: sckuo@mail.cmu.edu.tw [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan, ROC (China)

    2012-03-01

    2-(3-Methoxyphenyl)-5-methyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4(1H)-one (HKL-1), a 2-phenyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4-one (2-PN) derivative, was synthesized and evaluated as an effective antimitotic agent in our laboratory. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, HKL-1 was demonstrated to induce multipolar spindles, sustain mitotic arrest and generate multinucleated cells, all of which indicate mitotic catastrophe, in human leukemia HL-60 cells. Western blotting showed that HKL-1 induces mitotic catastrophe in HL-60 cells through regulating mitotic phase-specific kinases (down-regulating CDK1, cyclin B1, CENP-E, and aurora B) and regulating the expression of Bcl-2 family proteins (down-regulating Bcl-2 and up-regulating Bax and Bak), followed by caspase-9/-3 cleavage. These findings suggest that HKL-1 appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward HL-60 cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe. Highlights: ► HKL-1 is a potential antimitotic agent against HL-60 cells. ► HKL-1 induces spindle disruption and sustained resulted in mitotic catastrophe. ► CENP-E and aurora B protein expressions significantly reduced. ► Bcl-2 family protein expressions altered and caspase-9/-3 activation. ► HKL-1 is an attractive candidate for possible use as a novel antimitotic agent.

  14. Microtubule dynamic instability: A new model with coupled GTP hydrolysis and multistep catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowne-Anderson, Hugo; Zanic, Marija; Kauer, Monika; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-01-01

    A key question in understanding microtubule dynamics is how GTP hydrolysis leads to catastrophe, the switch from slow growth to rapid shrinkage. We first provide a review of the experimental and modeling literature, and then present a new model of microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that vectorial, random, and coupled hydrolysis mechanisms are not consistent with the dependence of catastrophe on tubulin concentration and show that, although single-protofilament models can explain many features of dynamics, they do not describe catastrophe as a multistep process. Finally, we present a new combined (coupled plus random hydrolysis) multiple-protofilament model that is a simple, analytically solvable generalization of a single-protofilament model. This model accounts for the observed lifetimes of growing microtubules, the delay to catastrophe following dilution and describes catastrophe as a multistep process. PMID:23532586

  15. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-11-10

    Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. This study used data from the Quality of Life National Survey conducted in Colombia in 2011. The presence of catastrophic healthcare spending was calculated using the methodology proposed by the World Health Organization in 2005. Households were classified as having catastrophic health spending when their out-of-pocket health payments were over 20 % of their payment capacity. All other households were classified as not having catastrophic health spending. A probit model was estimated aimed at determining what factors influence the probability of catastrophic healthcare spending. Study findings show that 9.6 % of Colombian households had catastrophic expenditure. The incidence was higher in households in the Pacífica and Atlántica regions, extended and nuclear families, households with children or elderly adults, located in rural areas, and not insured under the healthcare system. The ratio of household members who work seems to reduce the risk of catastrophic healthcare spending, but the occurrence of any in-patient event increases it. So, there is no statistical evidence for rejecting the hypotheses under study. Results indicate the importance of establishing intervention mechanisms in order to improve equity in access and payment for health care, protect vulnerable groups against financial risk, and, consequently, reduce the incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. For this, it is essential to achieve universal health coverage through standardized and improved health services packages for vulnerable age groups and

  16. National Health Insurance Scheme: How Protected Are Households in Oyo State, Nigeria from Catastrophic Health Expenditure?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The major objective of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS in Nigeria is to protect families from the financial hardship of large medical bills. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE is rampart in Nigeria despite the take-off of the NHIS. This study aimed to determine if households enrolled in the NHIS were protected from having CHE. Methods The study took place among 714 households in urban communities of Oyo State. CHE was measured using a threshold of 40% of monthly non-food expenditure. Descriptive statistics were done, Principal Component Analysis was used to divide households into wealth quintiles. Chi-square test and binary logistic regression were done. Results The mean age of household respondent was 33.5 years. The median household income was 43,500 naira (290 US dollars and the range was 7,000–680,000 naira (46.7–4,533 US dollars in 2012. The overall median household healthcare cost was 890 naira (5.9 US dollars and the range was 10-17,700 naira (0.1–118 US dollars in 2012. In all, 67 (9.4% households were enrolled in NHIS scheme. Healthcare services was utilized by 637 (82.9% and CHE occurred in 42 (6.6% households. CHE occurred in 14 (10.9% of the households in the lowest quintile compared to 3 (2.5% in the highest wealth quintile (P= 0.004. The odds of CHE among households in lowest wealth quintile is about 5 times. They had Crude OR (CI: 4.7 (1.3–16.8, P= 0.022. Non enrolled households were two times likely to have CHE, though not significant Conclusion Households in the lowest wealth quintiles were at higher risk of CHE. Universal coverage of health insurance in Nigeria should be fast-tracked to give the expected financial risk protection and decreased incidence of CHE.

  17. Elicitation threshold of cobalt chloride

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Louise A; Johansen, Jeanne D; Voelund, Aage

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cobalt is a strong skin sensitizer (grade 5 of 5 in the guinea-pig maximization test) that is used in various industrial and consumer applications. To prevent sensitization to cobalt and elicitation of allergic cobalt dermatitis, information about the elicitation threshold level...... of cobalt is important. OBJECTIVE: To identify the dermatitis elicitation threshold levels in cobalt-allergic individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Published patch test dose-response studies were reviewed to determine the elicitation dose (ED) levels in dermatitis patients with a previous positive patch test...... reaction to cobalt. A logistic dose-response model was applied to data collected from the published literature to estimate ED values. The 95% confidence interval (CI) for the ratio of mean doses that can elicit a reaction in 10% (ED(10)) of a population was calculated with Fieller's method. RESULTS...

  18. Scaling behavior of threshold epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2012-05-01

    We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease from infected individuals, while infected ones recover from the disease at a constant rate and are never infected again. Our focus is the behavior at the epidemic threshold where the rates of the infection and recovery processes balance. In the infinite population limit, we establish analytically scaling rules for the time-dependent distribution functions that characterize the sizes of the infected and the recovered sub-populations. Using heuristic arguments, we also obtain scaling laws for the size and duration of the epidemic outbreaks as a function of the total population. We perform numerical simulations to verify the scaling predictions and discuss the consequences of these scaling laws for near-threshold epidemic outbreaks.

  19. Disruption studies on ASDEX upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pautasso, G.; Egorov, S.; Finken, K.H.

    2003-01-01

    Disruptions generate large thermal and mechanical stresses on the tokamak components and are occasionally responsible for damages to the machine. For a future reactor disruptions have a significant impact on the design since all loading conditions must be analyzed in accordance with stricter design criteria (due to safety or difficult maintenance). Therefore the uncertainties affecting the predicted stresses must be reduced as much as possible with a more comprehensive set of measurements and analyses in this generation of experimental machines, and avoidance/predictive methods must be developed further. Disruption studies on ASDEX Upgrade are focused on these subjects, namely on: (1) understanding the physical mechanisms leading to this phenomenon in order to learn to avoid it or to predict its occurrence and to mitigate its effects; (2) analyzing the effects of disruptions on the machine to determine the functional dependence of the thermal and mechanical loads upon the discharge parameters. This allows, firstly, to dimension or reinforce the machine components to withstand these loads and, secondly, to extrapolate them to tokamaks still in the design phase; (3) learning to mitigate the consequence of disruptions, i.e. thermal loads, mechanical forces and runaways with injection of impurity pellets or gas. This paper is focused on most recent results concerning points, i.e. on the analysis of the degree of asymmetry of the forces and on the use of impurity puff for mitigation

  20. Roots at the Percolation Threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroener, E.; Ahmed, M. A.; Kaestner, A.; Vontobel, P.; Zarebanadkouki, M.; Carminati, A.

    2014-12-01

    Much of the carbon assimilated by plants during photosynthesis is lost to the soil via rhizodepositions. One component of rhizopdeposition is mucilage, a hydrogel that dramatically alters the soil physical properties. Mucilage was assumed to explain unexpectedly low rhizosphere rewetting rates during irrigation (Carminati et al. 2010) and temporarily water repellency in the rhizosphere after severe drying (Moradi et al. 2012).Here, we present an experimental and theoretical study for the rewetting behaviour of a soil mixed with mucilage, which was used as an analogue of the rhizosphere. Our samples were made of two layers of untreated soils separated by a thin layer (ca. 1 mm) of soil treated with mucilage. We prepared soil columns of varying particle size, mucilage concentration and height of the middle layer above the water table. The dry soil columns were re-wetted by capillary rise from the bottom.The rewetting of the middle layer showed a distinct dual behavior. For mucilage concentrations lower than a certain threshold, water could cross the thin layer almost immediately after rewetting of bulk soil. At slightly higher mucilage concentrations, the thin layer was almost impermeable. The mucilage concentration at the threshold strongly depended on particle size: the smaller the particle size the larger the soil specific surface and the more mucilage was needed to cover the entire particle surface and to induce water repellency.We applied a classic pore network model to simulate the experimental observations. In the model a certain fraction of nodes were randomly disconnected to reproduce the effect of mucilage in temporarily blocking the flow. The percolation model could qualitatively reproduce well the threshold characteristics of the experiments. Our experiments, together with former observations of water dynamics in the rhizosphere, suggest that the rhizosphere is near the percolation threshold, where small variations in mucilage concentration sensitively

  1. Realistic Realizations Of Threshold Circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Hassan M.

    1987-08-01

    Threshold logic, in which each input is weighted, has many theoretical advantages over the standard gate realization, such as reducing the number of gates, interconnections, and power dissipation. However, because of the difficult synthesis procedure and complicated circuit implementation, their use in the design of digital systems is almost nonexistant. In this study, three methods of NMOS realizations are discussed, and their advantages and shortcomings are explored. Also, the possibility of using the methods to realize multi-valued logic is examined.

  2. Root finding with threshold circuits

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jeřábek, Emil

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 462, Nov 30 (2012), s. 59-69 ISSN 0304-3975 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100190902; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0545 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : root finding * threshold circuit * power series Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.489, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304397512008006#

  3. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1979-01-01

    Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

  4. Online Education Cast as "Disruptive Innovation"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totter, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Technology-based forces of "disruptive innovation" are gathering around public education and will overhaul the way K-12 students learn--with potentially dramatic consequences for established public schools, according to an upcoming book that draws parallels to disruptions in other industries. In his "Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation…

  5. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  6. Professional Disruption in Health Regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasselbalch, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    How do professions respond to fast-moving technological changes? Disruptive innovations overturn expectations about how markets function and develop, and they often raise moral, legal and scientific concerns among professionals. Sudden technological changes can result in a state of professional...... disruption, in which technological change challenges the institutional arrangements of a profession. This article distinguishes between fast and slow processes of professional change, focusing on the role of technology as one cause of fast changes to a profession. Professionals and non-professionals engage...... in framing contests that draw on cognitive, normative and relational keys to signal their expectations. It is in these framing contests that professionals run the risk of disruption. Drawing on interview data with key policy actors, I investigate electronic cigarettes regulation in the European Union and its...

  7. Major plasma disruptions in TNS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onega, R.J.; Becraft, W.R.; Bettis, E.S.

    1979-02-01

    Evaluation of the instrumentation and control of a power producing tokamak fusion reactor such as The Next Step (TNS) requires an assessment of the consequences of a major plasma disruption during reactor operation. The most important consequence of a disruption will be damage to the first wall from thermal and magnetic stress. Severe temperature gradients will cause thermal stress, placing a limit on the number of disruptions that can occur before the integrity of the wall is lost, and eddy currents induced in the wall will interact with the magnetic energy of the plasma and the →B/sub T/ field to create mechanical forces. Consequences to the ohmic heating (OH) coils, their power supplies, and other coils must also be taken into account

  8. Disrupting the Industry with Play

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik Hautop

    2016-01-01

    or two ago. This is significantly disrupting the industry in several market sectors. This paper describes the components of the playware and embodied artificial intelligence research that has led to disruption in the industrial robotics sector, and which points to the next disruption of the health care......Decades of research into intelligent, playful technology and user-friendly man-machine interfaces has provided important insight into the creation of robotic systems and intelligent interactive systems which are much more user-friendly, safer and cheaper than what appeared possible merely a decade...... sector. This includes playful robotics, LEGO robots for kids, minimal robot systems, user-friendly, behavior-based, biomimetic, modular robotics and intelligent systems. The insight into these components and the use in synthesis for designing robots and intelligent systems allows anybody, anywhere...

  9. Stroke rehabilitation reaches a threshold.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol E Han

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Motor training with the upper limb affected by stroke partially reverses the loss of cortical representation after lesion and has been proposed to increase spontaneous arm use. Moreover, repeated attempts to use the affected hand in daily activities create a form of practice that can potentially lead to further improvement in motor performance. We thus hypothesized that if motor retraining after stroke increases spontaneous arm use sufficiently, then the patient will enter a virtuous circle in which spontaneous arm use and motor performance reinforce each other. In contrast, if the dose of therapy is not sufficient to bring spontaneous use above threshold, then performance will not increase and the patient will further develop compensatory strategies with the less affected hand. To refine this hypothesis, we developed a computational model of bilateral hand use in arm reaching to study the interactions between adaptive decision making and motor relearning after motor cortex lesion. The model contains a left and a right motor cortex, each controlling the opposite arm, and a single action choice module. The action choice module learns, via reinforcement learning, the value of using each arm for reaching in specific directions. Each motor cortex uses a neural population code to specify the initial direction along which the contralateral hand moves towards a target. The motor cortex learns to minimize directional errors and to maximize neuronal activity for each movement. The derived learning rule accounts for the reversal of the loss of cortical representation after rehabilitation and the increase of this loss after stroke with insufficient rehabilitation. Further, our model exhibits nonlinear and bistable behavior: if natural recovery, motor training, or both, brings performance above a certain threshold, then training can be stopped, as the repeated spontaneous arm use provides a form of motor learning that further bootstraps performance and

  10. Color difference thresholds in dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paravina, Rade D; Ghinea, Razvan; Herrera, Luis J; Bona, Alvaro D; Igiel, Christopher; Linninger, Mercedes; Sakai, Maiko; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Tashkandi, Esam; Perez, Maria del Mar

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this prospective multicenter study was to determine 50:50% perceptibility threshold (PT) and 50:50% acceptability threshold (AT) of dental ceramic under simulated clinical settings. The spectral radiance of 63 monochromatic ceramic specimens was determined using a non-contact spectroradiometer. A total of 60 specimen pairs, divided into 3 sets of 20 specimen pairs (medium to light shades, medium to dark shades, and dark shades), were selected for psychophysical experiment. The coordinating center and seven research sites obtained the Institutional Review Board (IRB) approvals prior the beginning of the experiment. Each research site had 25 observers, divided into five groups of five observers: dentists-D, dental students-S, dental auxiliaries-A, dental technicians-T, and lay persons-L. There were 35 observers per group (five observers per group at each site ×7 sites), for a total of 175 observers. Visual color comparisons were performed using a viewing booth. Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy approximation was used for fitting the data points. The 50:50% PT and 50:50% AT were determined in CIELAB and CIEDE2000. The t-test was used to evaluate the statistical significance in thresholds differences. The CIELAB 50:50% PT was ΔEab  = 1.2, whereas 50:50% AT was ΔEab  = 2.7. Corresponding CIEDE2000 (ΔE00 ) values were 0.8 and 1.8, respectively. 50:50% PT by the observer group revealed differences among groups D, A, T, and L as compared with 50:50% PT for all observers. The 50:50% AT for all observers was statistically different than 50:50% AT in groups T and L. A 50:50% perceptibility and ATs were significantly different. The same is true for differences between two color difference formulas ΔE00 /ΔEab . Observer groups and sites showed high level of statistical difference in all thresholds. Visual color difference thresholds can serve as a quality control tool to guide the selection of esthetic dental materials, evaluate clinical performance, and

  11. Voting on Thresholds for Public Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rauchdobler, Julian; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    Introducing a threshold in the sense of a minimal project size transforms a public goods game with an inefficient equilibrium into a coordination game with a set of Pareto-superior equilibria. Thresholds may therefore improve efficiency in the voluntary provision of public goods. In our one......-shot experiment, we find that coordination often fails and exogenously imposed thresholds are ineffective at best and often counter-productive. This holds under a range of threshold levels and refund rates. We test if thresholds perform better if they are endogenously chosen, i.e. if a threshold is approved...

  12. Disruptive Innovation in Healthcare & Rehabilitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brooks, Anthony Lewis

    2014-01-01

    Disruption is a powerful body of theory that describes how people interact and react, how behavior is shaped, how organizational cultures form and influence decisions. Innovation is the process of translating an idea or invention into a product or service that creates value or for which customers...... will pay. Disruptive Innovation in context of the author’s body of work in healthcare and rehabilitation relates to how development of a cloud-based converged infrastructure resource, similar to that conceived in a national (Danish) study titled Humanics, can act as an accessible data and knowledge...

  13. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  14. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  17. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  18. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  19. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  20. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  1. Catastrophic Transculturation in Dracula, The Strain and The Historian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Hoglund

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article notes that what Paul Brantlinger has referred to as the Imperial Gothic insists that the encounter between cultures results not in a transcultural merger, but in an apocalyptic struggle for survival. As this struggle is often tied to past and present-day imperial sentiment, the article suggests that both late-Victorian and contemporary fiction can effectively be discussed with the help of Marie Louise Pratt's concept transculturation. Through a reading of three vampire narratives, Stokers's Dracula (1897, Del Toro and Hogan's The Strain (2009 and Kostova's The Historian (2005, the article demonstrates how past and present imperial gothic texts describe the derailment of European modernity and insists that cultural encounter produce monstrous hybrids that threaten an ontological and/or epistemological apocalypse. In this way, the cultural encounter that these gothic novels imagine result in catastrophic transculturation and the article argues that this is a common way of understanding the transnational meeting in American neo-imperial discourse.

  2. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  3. Threshold intensity factors as lower boundaries for crack propagation in ceramics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Per-Ole

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Slow crack growth can be described in a v (crack velocity versus KI (stress intensity factor diagram. Slow crack growth in ceramics is attributed to corrosion assisted stress at the crack tip or at any pre-existing defect in the ceramic. The combined effect of high stresses at the crack tip and the presence of water or body fluid molecules (reducing surface energy at the crack tip induces crack propagation, which eventually may result in fatigue. The presence of a threshold in the stress intensity factor, below which no crack propagation occurs, has been the subject of important research in the last years. The higher this threshold, the higher the reliability of the ceramic, and consequently the longer its lifetime. Methods We utilize the Irwin K-field displacement relation to deduce crack tip stress intensity factors from the near crack tip profile. Cracks are initiated by indentation impressions. The threshold stress intensity factor is determined as the time limit of the tip stress intensity when the residual stresses have (nearly disappeared. Results We determined the threshold stress intensity factors for most of the all ceramic materials presently important for dental restorations in Europe. Of special significance is the finding that alumina ceramic has a threshold limit nearly identical with that of zirconia. Conclusion The intention of the present paper is to stress the point that the threshold stress intensity factor represents a more intrinsic property for a given ceramic material than the widely used toughness (bend strength or fracture toughness, which refers only to fast crack growth. Considering two ceramics with identical threshold limits, although with different critical stress intensity limits, means that both ceramics have identical starting points for slow crack growth. Fast catastrophic crack growth leading to spontaneous fatigue, however, is different. This growth starts later in those ceramic materials

  4. The epidemiology of catastrophic spine injuries in high school and college football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sanjitpal S; Boden, Barry P

    2008-03-01

    Athletic events have long been identified as a source of catastrophic spinal injuries. One of the most notorious sports has been American football. At both the amateur and professional level, this collision sport is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries including cervical spine trauma and quadriplegia. Although modifications in the rules of play and education of players and coaches have significantly diminished the rate of quadriplegia, there remains a need to decrease the number of catastrophic spine injuries in football. Further research related to the prevention and management of athletic cervical spine trauma is necessary.

  5. A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Gottwald

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

  6. The interplay of parent and adolescent catastrophizing and its impact on adolescents' pain, functioning, and pain behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R

    2013-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N=240). Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (>70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems.

  7. The Interplay of Parent and Adolescent Catastrophizing and Its Impact on Adolescents’ Pain, Functioning, and Pain Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M.; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Methods Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N = 240). Results Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (> 70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Discussion Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems. PMID:23370064

  8. Optimizing Systems of Threshold Detection Sensors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Banschbach, David C

    2008-01-01

    .... Below the threshold all signals are ignored. We develop a mathematical model for setting individual sensor thresholds to obtain optimal probability of detecting a significant event, given a limit on the total number of false positives allowed...

  9. JET and COMPASS asymmetrical disruptions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gerasimov, S.N.; Abreu, P.; Baruzzo, M.; Drozdov, V.; Dvornova, A.; Havlíček, Josef; Hender, T.C.; Hronová-Bilyková, Olena; Kruezi, U.; Li, X.; Markovič, Tomáš; Pánek, Radomír; Rubinacci, G.; Tsalas, M.; Ventre, S.; Villone, F.; Zakharov, L.E.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 11 (2015), s. 113006-113006 ISSN 0029-5515 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LM2011021 Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : tokamak * asymmetrical disruption * JET * COMPASS Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 4.040, year: 2015

  10. Disruption mitigation on Tore Supra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.; Sourd, F.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Bucalossi, J.; Eriksson, L.G.

    2004-01-01

    During disruptions, the plasma energy is lost on the first wall within 1 ms, forces up to hundred tons are applied to the structures and kA of electrons are accelerated up to 50 MeV (runaway electrons). Already sources of concern in present day tokamaks, extrapolation to ITER shows the necessity of mitigation procedures, to avoid serious damages to in-vessel components. Massive gas injection was proposed, and encouraging tests have been done on Textor and DIII-D. Similar experiments where performed on Tore Supra, with the goal to validate their effect on runaway electrons, observed during the majority of disruptions. 0.1 mole of helium was injected within 5 ms in ohmic plasmas, up to 1.2 MA, either stable, or in a pre-disruptive phase (argon puffing). Beneficial effects where obtained: reduction of the current fall rate and eddy currents, total disappearance of runaway electrons and easy recovery for the next pulse, without noticeable helium pollution of following plasmas. Analysis of the 4 ms period between injection and disruption indicates that to reach these goals, one need to inject enough helium to keep it only partially ionised. It corresponds to 0.1 g for Tore Supra, and extrapolate to hundreds of grams for ITER. (authors)

  11. Jogging Can Modify Disruptive Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jill I.

    1980-01-01

    Jogging was used to modify disruptive behavior as part of the classroom routine for 12 learning disabled elementary-grade boys. The number of incidents of each of five negative behaviors were reduced by half following the 10-minute jogging routine. (SBH)

  12. Will blockchain disrupt your business?

    OpenAIRE

    Schmeiss, Jessica

    2018-01-01

    Blockchain has been praised to be “the technology most likely to change the next decade of business”. The disruptive power of the blockchain technology is yet limited, says HIIG-researcher Jessica Schmeiss. Beyond the hype, there a opportunities for companies to make their current business models more cost-effective and more efficient.

  13. Marital Alternatives and Marital Disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J. Richard

    1981-01-01

    Explores the usefulness of "marital alternatives" as a dimension in explaining marital stability, using longitudinal data from a panel of married, White, urban couples from 16 urban areas. Results indicated the dimension of marital alternatives appeared to be a better predictor of marital disruption than marital satisfaction. (Author/RC)

  14. Disruption mitigation on Tore Supra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.; Sourd, F.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Bucalossi, J.; Eriksson, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    During disruptions, the plasma energy is lost on the first wall within 1 ms, forces up to hundred tons are applied to the structures and kA of electrons are accelerated up to 50 MeV (runaway electrons). Already sources of concern in present day tokamaks, extrapolation to ITER shows the necessity of mitigation procedures, to avoid serious damages to in-vessel components. Massive gas injection was proposed, and encouraging tests have been done on Textor and DIII-D. Similar experiments where performed on Tore Supra, with the goal to validate their effect on runaway electrons, observed during the majority of disruptions. 0.1 mole of helium was injected within 5 ms in ohmic plasmas, up to 1.2 MA, either stable, or in a pre-disruptive phase (argon puffing). Beneficial effects where obtained: reduction of the current fall rate and eddy currents, total disappearance of runaway electrons and easy recovery for the next pulse, without noticeable helium pollution of following plasmas. Analysis of the 4 ms period between injection and disruption indicates that to reach these goals, one need to inject enough helium to keep it only partially ionised. It correspond to 0.1 g for Tore Supra, and extrapolate to hundred's of grams for ITER. (author)

  15. Nuclear thermodynamics below particle threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiller, A.; Agvaanluvsan, U.; Algin, E.; Bagheri, A.; Chankova, R.; Guttormsen, M.; Hjorth-Jensen, M.; Rekstad, J.; Siem, S.; Sunde, A. C.; Voinov, A.

    2005-01-01

    From a starting point of experimentally measured nuclear level densities, we discuss thermodynamical properties of nuclei below the particle emission threshold. Since nuclei are essentially mesoscopic systems, a straightforward generalization of macroscopic ensemble theory often yields unphysical results. A careful critique of traditional thermodynamical concepts reveals problems commonly encountered in mesoscopic systems. One of which is the fact that microcanonical and canonical ensemble theory yield different results, another concerns the introduction of temperature for small, closed systems. Finally, the concept of phase transitions is investigated for mesoscopic systems

  16. Supply disruption cost for power network planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjoelle, G.H.

    1992-09-01

    A description is given of the method of approach to calculate the total annual socio-economic cost of power supply disruption and non-supplied energy, included the utilities' cost for planning. The total socio-economic supply disruption cost is the sum of the customers' disruption cost and the utilities' cost for failure and disruption. The mean weighted disruption cost for Norway for one hour disruption is NOK 19 per kWh. The customers' annual disruption cost is calculated with basis in the specific disruption cost referred to heavy load (January) and dimensioning maximum loads. The loads are reduced by factors taking into account the time variations of the failure frequency, duration, the loads and the disruption cost. 6 refs

  17. Disruption of conditioned reward association by typical and atypical antipsychotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danna, C L; Elmer, G I

    2010-07-01

    Antipsychotic drugs are broadly classified into typical and atypical compounds; they vary in their pharmacological profile however a common component is their antagonist effects at the D2 dopamine receptors (DRD2). Unfortunately, diminished DRD2 activation is generally thought to be associated with the severity of neuroleptic-induced anhedonia. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the atypical antipsychotic olanzapine and typical antipsychotic haloperidol in a paradigm that reflects the learned transfer of incentive motivational properties to previously neutral stimuli, namely autoshaping. In order to provide a dosing comparison to a therapeutically relevant endpoint, both drugs were tested against amphetamine-induced disruption of prepulse inhibition as well. In the autoshaping task, rats were exposed to repeated pairings of stimuli that were differentially predictive of reward delivery. Conditioned approach to the reward-predictive cue (sign-tracking) and to the reward (goal-tracking) increased during repeated pairings in the vehicle treated rats. Haloperidol and olanzapine completely abolished this behavior at relatively low doses (100microg/kg). This same dose was the threshold dose for each drug to antagonize the sensorimotor gating deficits produced by amphetamine. At lower doses (3-30microg/kg) both drugs produced a dose-dependent decrease in conditioned approach to the reward-predictive cue. There was no difference between drugs at this dose range which indicates that olanzapine disrupts autoshaping at a significantly lower proposed DRD2 receptor occupancy. Interestingly, neither drug disrupted conditioned approach to the reward at the same dose range that disrupted conditioned approach to the reward-predictive cue. Thus, haloperidol and olanzapine, at doses well below what is considered therapeutically relevant, disrupts the attribution of incentive motivational value to previously neutral cues. Drug effects on this dimension of reward

  18. Threshold Concepts in Finance: Student Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Susan; Kyng, Tim; Tickle, Leonie; Wood, Leigh N.

    2015-01-01

    Finance threshold concepts are the essential conceptual knowledge that underpin well-developed financial capabilities and are central to the mastery of finance. In this paper we investigate threshold concepts in finance from the point of view of students, by establishing the extent to which students are aware of threshold concepts identified by…

  19. Threshold enhancement of diphoton resonances

    CERN Document Server

    Bharucha, Aoife; Goudelis, Andreas

    2016-10-10

    The data collected by the LHC collaborations at an energy of 13 TeV indicates the presence of an excess in the diphoton spectrum that would correspond to a resonance of a 750 GeV mass. The apparently large production cross section is nevertheless very difficult to explain in minimal models. We consider the possibility that the resonance is a pseudoscalar boson $A$ with a two--photon decay mediated by a charged and uncolored fermion having a mass at the $\\frac12 M_A$ threshold and a very small decay width, $\\ll 1$ MeV; one can then generate a large enhancement of the $A\\gamma\\gamma$ amplitude which explains the excess without invoking a large multiplicity of particles propagating in the loop, large electric charges and/or very strong Yukawa couplings. The implications of such a threshold enhancement are discussed in two explicit scenarios: i) the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model in which the $A$ state is produced via the top quark mediated gluon fusion process and decays into photons predominantly through...

  20. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  1. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  2. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  3. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: comparative study by social exclusion level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Puentes-Rosas, Esteban

    2005-01-01

    To describe the differences in catastrophic health expenditures in five Mexican states. This study included five states selected by convenience according to their social exclusion level. Household catastrophic health expenditures attributable to the three components of out of pocket health expenditures (ambulatory care, medication, and inpatient care) were calculated. The risk of impoverishment at the national level was greater in the most vulnerable households, namely, in the 20% poorest, rural, and uninsured households. Nevertheless, in states like Aguascalientes, Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Morelos the results were different. Over 70% of catastrophic health expenditures were attributable to medication and outpatient care expenditures in the poorest states. The differences found among states show that the implementation of local health policies to reduce catastrophic health expenditures should be based on evidence generated from analyses at the state level.

  4. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  5. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : New York City -- September 11, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the terrorist attack in New York City on September 11, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  6. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Northridge earthquake -- January 17, 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-22

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...

  7. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : cross cutting study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    In order to provide a better understanding of how transportation is both affected and utilized in an emergency situation, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) commissioned a series of four case studies examining the effects of catastrophic event...

  8. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  9. Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Alan Flory

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Environmental impacts from carcass management are a significant concern globally. Despite a history of costly, ineffective, and environmentally damaging carcass disposal efforts, large animal carcass disposal methods have advanced little in the past decade. An outbreak today will likely be managed with the same carcass disposal techniques used in the previous decades and will likely result in the same economic, health, and environmental impacts. This article overviews the results of one field test that was completed in Virginia (United States using the aboveground burial (AGB technique and the disposal of 111 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD infected sheep in Tunisia using a similar methodology. Materials and Methods: Researchers in the United States conducted a field test to assess the environmental impact and effectiveness of AGB in decomposing livestock carcasses. The system design included a shallow trench excavated into native soil and a carbonaceous base placed on the bottom of the trenches followed by a single layer of animal carcasses. Excavated soils were subsequently placed on top of the animals, and a vegetative layer was established. A similar methodology was used in Tunisia to manage sheep infected with FMDs, Peste des Petits Ruminants virus, and Bluetongue Virus. Results: The results of the field test in the United States demonstrated a significant carcass degradation during the 1-year period of the project, and the migration of nutrients below the carcasses appears to be limited thereby minimizing the threat of groundwater contamination. The methodology proved practical for the disposal of infected sheep carcasses in Tunisia. Conclusions: Based on the analysis conducted to date, AGB appears to offer many benefits over traditional burial for catastrophic mortality management. Ongoing research will help to identify limitations of the method and determine where its application during large disease outbreaks or natural

  10. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  11. Disruption of magnetospheric current sheet by quasi-electrostatic field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. W. Liu

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent observational evidence has indicated that local current sheet disruptions are excited by an external perturbation likely associated with the kinetic ballooning (KB instability initiating at the transition region separating the dipole- and tail-like geometries. Specifically a quasi-electrostatic field pointing to the neutral sheet was identified in the interval between the arrival of KB perturbation and local current disruption. How can such a field drive the local current sheet unstable? This question is considered through a fluid treatment of thin current sheet (TCS where the generalized Ohm's law replaces the frozen-in-flux condition. A perturbation with the wavevector along the current is applied, and eigenmodes with frequency much below the ion gyrofrequency are sought. We show that the second-order derivative of ion drift velocity along the thickness of the current sheet is a critical stability parameter. In an E-field-free Harris sheet in which the drift velocity is constant, the current sheet is stable against this particular mode. As the electrostatic field grows, however, potential for instability arises. The threshold of instability is identified through an approximate analysis of the theory. For a nominal current sheet half-thickness of 1000 km, the estimated instability threshold is E~4 mV/m. Numerical solutions indicate that the two-fluid theory gives growth rate and wave period consistent with observations.

  12. Integrated Modeling of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities and Decisions Induced by Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Ermolieva, T.Y.; Fischer, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses an integrated model capable of dealing with spatial and temporal heterogeneities induced by extreme events, in particular weather related catastrophes. The model can be used for quite different problems which take explicitly into account the specifics of catastrophic risks: highly mutually dependent losses, inherent capacity of information, the need for long-term perspectives (temporal heterogeneity) and geographically explicit analyses (spatial heterogeneity) with respec...

  13. An Empirical Investigation of Catastrophic Forgetting in Gradient-Based Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Goodfellow, Ian J.; Mirza, Mehdi; Xiao, Da; Courville, Aaron; Bengio, Yoshua

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a problem faced by many machine learning models and algorithms. When trained on one task, then trained on a second task, many machine learning models "forget" how to perform the first task. This is widely believed to be a serious problem for neural networks. Here, we investigate the extent to which the catastrophic forgetting problem occurs for modern neural networks, comparing both established and recent gradient-based training algorithms and activation functions. ...

  14. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  15. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  16. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  17. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  18. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  19. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed.

  20. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  1. A hybrid simulator model for the control of catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage in the military environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverplats, Katarina; Jonsson, Anders; Lundberg, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic haemorrhage from extremity injuries has for a long time been the single most common cause of preventable death in the military environment. The effective use of extremity tourniquets has increased the survival of combat casualties, and exsanguination from isolated limb injuries is no longer the most common cause of death. Today, the most common cause of potentially preventable death is haemorrhage from the junctional zones, i.e. the most proximal part of the extremities, not amenable to standard tourniquets. Different training techniques to control catastrophic haemorrhage have been used by the Swedish Armed Forces in the pre-deployment training of physicians, nurses and medics for many years. The training techniques include different types of human patient simulators such as moulage patients and manikins. Preferred training conditions for the control of catastrophic haemorrhage include a high degree of realism, in combination with multiple training attempts. This report presents a new hybrid training model for catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage control. It offers a readily reproducible, simple and inexpensive opportunity to train personnel to deal with life threatening catastrophic junctional haemorrhage. In particular, this model offers an opportunity for non-medical military personnel in Sweden to practice control of realistic catastrophic haemorrhage, with multiple training attempts.

  2. An integrative perspective of the anaerobic threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Marcelo Magalhães; Sousa, Caio Victor; da Silva Aguiar, Samuel; Knechtle, Beat; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theodoros; Alves, Polissandro Mortoza; Simões, Herbert Gustavo

    2017-12-14

    The concept of anaerobic threshold (AT) was introduced during the nineteen sixties. Since then, several methods to identify the anaerobic threshold (AT) have been studied and suggested as novel 'thresholds' based upon the variable used for its detection (i.e. lactate threshold, ventilatory threshold, glucose threshold). These different techniques have brought some confusion about how we should name this parameter, for instance, anaerobic threshold or the physiological measure used (i.e. lactate, ventilation). On the other hand, the modernization of scientific methods and apparatus to detect AT, as well as the body of literature formed in the past decades, could provide a more cohesive understanding over the AT and the multiple physiological systems involved. Thus, the purpose of this review was to provide an integrative perspective of the methods to determine AT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A statistical model describing combined irreversible electroporation and electroporation-induced blood-brain barrier disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharabi, Shirley; Kos, Bor; Last, David; Guez, David; Daniels, Dianne; Harnof, Sagi; Mardor, Yael; Miklavcic, Damijan

    2016-03-01

    Electroporation-based therapies such as electrochemotherapy (ECT) and irreversible electroporation (IRE) are emerging as promising tools for treatment of tumors. When applied to the brain, electroporation can also induce transient blood-brain-barrier (BBB) disruption in volumes extending beyond IRE, thus enabling efficient drug penetration. The main objective of this study was to develop a statistical model predicting cell death and BBB disruption induced by electroporation. This model can be used for individual treatment planning. Cell death and BBB disruption models were developed based on the Peleg-Fermi model in combination with numerical models of the electric field. The model calculates the electric field thresholds for cell kill and BBB disruption and describes the dependence on the number of treatment pulses. The model was validated using in vivo experimental data consisting of rats brains MRIs post electroporation treatments. Linear regression analysis confirmed that the model described the IRE and BBB disruption volumes as a function of treatment pulses number (r(2) = 0.79; p disruption, the ratio increased with the number of pulses. BBB disruption radii were on average 67% ± 11% larger than IRE volumes. The statistical model can be used to describe the dependence of treatment-effects on the number of pulses independent of the experimental setup.

  4. What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Onwujekwe, Obinna; Torpey, Kwasi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Chiegil, Robert

    2016-01-01

    A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services. An exit survey of adults (18+years) attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra). In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES) and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits) as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively. The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (ptravel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable and high cost burden of ART services. Full inclusion of ART services within the benefit package of the National Health Insurance Scheme should be considered.

  5. Disrupting the habit of interviewing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eileen Honan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the growing domain of ‘post-qualitative’ research and experiments with a new (representational form to move away from traditional and clichéd descriptions of research methods. In this paper, I want to interrogate the category of interview, and the habit of interviewing, to disrupt the clichés, so as to allow thinking of different ways of writing/speaking/representing the interactions between researcher and researched that will breathe new life into qualitative inquiries. I will attempt to flatten and shred, destabilise and disrupt our common-sense ideas about interview, including those held most sacred to the qualitative community, that of anonymity and confidentiality, as well as the privilege of the ‘transcript’ in re-presenting interview data.

  6. Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

    2013-11-01

    It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

  7. Detection thresholds of macaque otolith afferents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiong-Jie; Dickman, J David; Angelaki, Dora E

    2012-06-13

    The vestibular system is our sixth sense and is important for spatial perception functions, yet the sensory detection and discrimination properties of vestibular neurons remain relatively unexplored. Here we have used signal detection theory to measure detection thresholds of otolith afferents using 1 Hz linear accelerations delivered along three cardinal axes. Direction detection thresholds were measured by comparing mean firing rates centered on response peak and trough (full-cycle thresholds) or by comparing peak/trough firing rates with spontaneous activity (half-cycle thresholds). Thresholds were similar for utricular and saccular afferents, as well as for lateral, fore/aft, and vertical motion directions. When computed along the preferred direction, full-cycle direction detection thresholds were 7.54 and 3.01 cm/s(2) for regular and irregular firing otolith afferents, respectively. Half-cycle thresholds were approximately double, with excitatory thresholds being half as large as inhibitory thresholds. The variability in threshold among afferents was directly related to neuronal gain and did not depend on spike count variance. The exact threshold values depended on both the time window used for spike count analysis and the filtering method used to calculate mean firing rate, although differences between regular and irregular afferent thresholds were independent of analysis parameters. The fact that minimum thresholds measured in macaque otolith afferents are of the same order of magnitude as human behavioral thresholds suggests that the vestibular periphery might determine the limit on our ability to detect or discriminate small differences in head movement, with little noise added during downstream processing.

  8. Disruptive technologies in higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Flavin

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the role of “disruptive” innovative technologies in higher education. In this country and elsewhere, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs have invested significant sums in learning technologies, with Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs being more or less universal, but these technologies have not been universally adopted and used by students and staff. Instead, other technologies not owned or controlled by HEIs are widely used to support learning and teaching. According to Christensen's theory of Disruptive Innovation, these disruptive technologies are not designed explicitly to support learning and teaching in higher education, but have educational potential. This study uses Activity Theory and Expansive Learning to analyse data regarding the impact of disruptive technologies. The data were obtained through a questionnaire survey about awareness and use of technologies, and through observation and interviews, exploring participants’ actual practice. The survey answers tended to endorse Disruptive Innovation theory, with participants establishing meanings for technologies through their use of them, rather than in keeping with a designer's intentions. Observation revealed that learners use a narrow range of technologies to support learning, but with a tendency to use resources other than those supplied by their HEIs. Interviews showed that participants use simple and convenient technologies to support their learning and teaching. This study identifies a contradiction between learning technologies made available by HEIs, and technologies used in practice. There is no evidence to suggest that a wide range of technologies is being used to support learning and teaching. Instead, a small range of technologies is being used for a wide range of tasks. Students and lecturers are not dependent on their HEIs to support learning and teaching. Instead, they self-select technologies, with use weighted towards established brands. The

  9. Initiation of melting and evaporating of materials under plasma disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Takahiro; Morita, Takeshi; Kozawa, Yoshiyuki; Fujii-e, Yoichi

    1993-01-01

    In a tokamak reactor, a pulsed high heat flux, whose heat flux should result in up to 2 x 10 5 MW/m 2 , would be injected to the plasma facing components (PFCs) due to a plasma disruption. By this heat load the PFCs are melted, evaporated and cracked. In this study melting and evaporation behavior was investigated through performing the experiment with use of an electron beam to simulate heat loads due to plasma disruptions and the numerical and approximate analyses. Experimental and analytical results show that the evaporated mass increases abruptly at a curtain heat flux and time, and that the thickness of melting layer has the maximum at a curtain heat flux. From dimensionless expressions of such results the simple dimensionless correlations between the relevant values were obtained to estimate the significant characteristics such as evaporation thresholds and maximum melting layer thickness. Applying them to evaluation of the thermal resistance of materials against various heat loads due to a plasma disruption confirms that against the milder heat load, the materials whose initiation of melting and evaporation occurs late, such as tungsten, are suitable for armor materials and against the severer heat load, the materials that have a large of latent heat evaporation, such as graphite, are suitable for armor materials. (author)

  10. Engineering analysis of TFTR disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, J.G.; Rothe, K.E.; Bronner, G.

    1984-09-01

    This report covers an engineering approach quantifying the currents, forces, and times, as well as plasma position, for the worst-case disruption based on engineerign circuit assumptions for the plasma. As the plasma moves toward the wall during the current-decay phase of disruption, the wall currents affect the rate of movement and, hence, the decay time. The calculated structure-induced currents differ considerably from those calculated using a presently available criterion, which specifies that the plasma remains stationary in the center of the torus while decaying in 10 ms. This report outlines the method and basis for the engineering calculation used to determine the current and forces as a function of the circuit characteristics. It provides specific calculations for the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) with variations in parameters such as the thermal decay time, the torus resistance, and plasma temperature during the current decay. The study reviews possible ways to reduce the disruption damage of TFTR by reducing the magnitude of the plasma external field energy that is absorbed by the plasma during the current decay

  11. Engineering analysis of TFTR disruption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, J.G.; Rothe, K.E.; Bronner, G.

    1984-09-01

    This report covers an engineering approach quantifying the currents, forces, and times, as well as plasma position, for the worst-case disruption based on engineerign circuit assumptions for the plasma. As the plasma moves toward the wall during the current-decay phase of disruption, the wall currents affect the rate of movement and, hence, the decay time. The calculated structure-induced currents differ considerably from those calculated using a presently available criterion, which specifies that the plasma remains stationary in the center of the torus while decaying in 10 ms. This report outlines the method and basis for the engineering calculation used to determine the current and forces as a function of the circuit characteristics. It provides specific calculations for the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) with variations in parameters such as the thermal decay time, the torus resistance, and plasma temperature during the current decay. The study reviews possible ways to reduce the disruption damage of TFTR by reducing the magnitude of the plasma external field energy that is absorbed by the plasma during the current decay.

  12. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  13. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  14. Catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions II: The subordinate role of magma buoyancy as an eruption trigger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Patricia M.; Grosfils, Eric B.; de Silva, Shanaka L.

    2015-10-01

    Recent analytical investigations have suggested that magma buoyancy is critical for triggering catastrophic caldera forming eruptions. Through detailed assessment of these approaches, we illustrate how analytical models have been misapplied for investigating buoyancy and are, therefore, incorrect and inconclusive. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that buoyancy is the critical trigger for larger eruptions warrants further investigation. As such, we utilize viscoelastic finite element models that incorporate buoyancy to test overpressure evolution and mechanical failure in the roof due to the coalescence of large buoyant magma bodies for two model cases. In the first case, we mimic empirical approaches and include buoyancy as an explicit boundary condition. In the second set of models, buoyancy is calculated implicitly due to the density contrast between the magma in the reservoir and the host rock. Results from these numerical experiments indicate that buoyancy promotes only minimal overpressurization of large silicic magma reservoirs (failure is predicted along the magma chamber boundary due to buoyancy in large reservoirs. Rather, compressional stresses are observed due to buoyant magma focusing away from the edges of the reservoir and toward the center. Given the shortcomings of the analytical implementations and the results from the numerical experiments, we conclude that buoyancy does not provide an eruption triggering mechanism for large silicic systems. Therefore, correlations of buoyancy with magma residence times, the eruption frequency-volume relationship, and the dimensions of calderas are re-assessed. We find a causal relationship with magma reservoir volume that implicates the mechanical conditions of the host rock as a primary control on eruption frequency. As magma reservoirs grow in size (> 100 km3) they surpass a rheological threshold where their subsequent evolution is controlled by host rock mechanics. Consequently, this results in a thermomechanical

  15. Disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chandra, Y.; Yang, S.-J.S.; Singh, P.; Prajogo, D.; O'Neill, P.; Rahman, S.

    2008-01-01

    Research on conditions and causal mechanisms that influence disruptive innovation has been relatively unexplored in the extant research in disruptive innovation. By re-conceptualizing disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process at product, firm and industry levels, this paper draws on

  16. Revision Hope: Writing Disruption in Composition Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Julie

    1997-01-01

    Uses Roland Barthes's metaphor of the "punctum" to explore the transformative potential of disruptions. Argues that writing teachers have been trained to read disruption in texts and classrooms as "evidence of poor taste or failed pedagogy," but that disruptions delay closure and thereby create spaces wherein theories and…

  17. Disruption and Distinctiveness in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Wendy

    2014-01-01

    "Disruption"--while an evocative word triggering feelings of anxiety and perhaps even fear--also signals renewal and growth. The Higher Education (HE) sector in England has experienced some profound disruption over the years, and yet has emerged stronger and renewed in many ways. The impact of recent disruptive forces, from fees to the…

  18. Routine Responses to Disruption of Routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guha, Mahua

    2015-01-01

    "Organisational routines" is a widely studied research area. However, there is a dearth of research on disruption of routines. The few studies on disruption of routines discussed problem-solving activities that are carried out in response to disruption. In contrast, this study develops a theory of "solution routines" that are a…

  19. Fisheries-induced disruptive selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Pietro; Hui, Cang; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2015-01-21

    Commercial harvesting is recognized to induce adaptive responses of life-history traits in fish populations, in particular by shifting the age and size at maturation through directional selection. In addition to such evolution of a target stock, the corresponding fishery itself may adapt, in terms of fishing policy, technological progress, fleet dynamics, and adaptive harvest. The aim of this study is to assess how the interplay between natural and artificial selection, in the simplest setting in which a fishery and a target stock coevolve, can lead to disruptive selection, which in turn may cause trait diversification. To this end, we build an eco-evolutionary model for a size-structured population, in which both the stock׳s maturation schedule and the fishery׳s harvest rate are adaptive, while fishing may be subject to a selective policy based on fish size and/or maturity stage. Using numerical bifurcation analysis, we study how the potential for disruptive selection changes with fishing policy, fishing mortality, harvest specialization, life-history tradeoffs associated with early maturation, and other demographic and environmental parameters. We report the following findings. First, fisheries-induced disruptive selection is readily caused by commonly used fishing policies, and occurs even for policies that are not specific for fish size or maturity, provided that the harvest is sufficiently adaptive and large individuals are targeted intensively. Second, disruptive selection is more likely in stocks in which the selective pressure for early maturation is naturally strong, provided life-history tradeoffs are sufficiently consequential. Third, when a fish stock is overexploited, fisheries targeting only large individuals might slightly increase sustainable yield by causing trait diversification (even though the resultant yield always remains lower than the maximum sustainable yield that could be obtained under low fishing mortality, without causing disruptive

  20. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  1. Crossing thresholds: Analysis of hazardous tipping points in alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Steep mountain channels or torrents in small alpine catchments are characterized by high geomorphic activity with sediment dynamics being inherently nonlinear and threshold-mediated. Localized, high intensity rainstorms can drive torrential systems past a tipping point resulting in a sudden onset of hazardous events like (flash-) flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows. Such responses exhibit an abrupt switch in the fluvial system's mode (e.g. transport / supply limited). Changes in functional connectivity may persist beyond the tipping point. Torrential hazards cause costly damage in the densely populated Alpine Region. Thus, there is a rising interest in potential effects of climate change on torrential sediment dynamics. Understanding critical conditions close to tipping points is important to reduce uncertainty in predicting sediment fluxes. In this study we aim at (i) establishing threshold precipitation characteristics for the Eastern Alps of Austria. Precipitation is hypothesized to be the main forcing factor of torrential events. (ii) How do thresholds vary in space and time? (iii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which internal conditions are critical for susceptibility? (iv) Is there a change in magnitude or frequency in the recent past and what can be expected for the future? The 71 km2 catchment of the river Schöttlbach in the East Alpine Region of Styria (Austria) is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a catastrophic flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilization from slopes as well as within-channel storage and bedload transport are regularly measured using photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors. Thus, detailed knowledge exists on magnitude and spatial propagation of sediment waves through the catchment. The associated hydro-meteorological (pre-) conditions can be inferred from a dense station network. Changing bedload transport rates and

  2. Catastrophic inflammatory death of monocytes and macrophages by overtaking of a critical dose of endocytosed synthetic amorphous silica nanoparticles/serum protein complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedeli, Chiara; Selvestrel, Francesco; Tavano, Regina; Segat, Daniela; Mancin, Fabrizio; Papini, Emanuele

    2013-07-01

    We tested whether phagocytic monocytes/macrophages are more susceptible than nonphagocytes to nanoparticle (NP) toxicity. We compared in vitro cell death and proinflammatory cytokine production in human monocytes, macrophages, lymphocytes and HeLa cells due to synthetic amorphous silica (SiO2)-NPs in different serum concentrations and correlated them with cellular uptake and distribution. Phagocytes were approximately ten-times more sensitive than nonphagocytes to SiO2-NPs and more effectively endocytosed SiO2-NP-serum protein nanoagglomerates, so determining their accumulation in acidic endocytic compartments well beyond a critical/cytotoxic threshold. Monocyte/macrophage death was paralleled by cytokine secretion. The physiological specialization of monocytes/macrophages to effectively capture NPs may expose them to the risk of catastrophic inflammatory death upon saturation of their maximal storage capacity.

  3. Household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China: determinants and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaohong; Shen, Jay J; Lu, Jun; Wang, Ying; Sun, Mei; Li, Chengyue; Chang, Fengshui; Hao, Mo

    2013-12-05

    Much of research on household catastrophic medical expenses in China has focused on less developed areas and little is known about this problem in more developed areas. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and determinants of catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China. Data were obtained from a health care utilization and expense survey of 11,577 households conducted in eastern China in 2008. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was calculated using the method introduced by the World Health Organization. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China ranged from 9.24% to 24.79%. Incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was lower if the head of household had a higher level of education, labor insurance coverage, while the incidence was higher if they lived in rural areas, had a family member with chronic diseases, had a child younger than 5 years old, had a person at home who was at least 65 years old, and had a household member who was hospitalized. Moreover, the impact of the economic level on catastrophic medical expenses was non-linear. The poorest group had a lower incidence than that of the second lowest income group and the group with the highest income had a higher incidence than that of the second highest income group. In addition, region was a significant determinant. Reducing the incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses should be one of the priorities of health policy. It can be achieved by improving residents' health status to reduce avoidable health services such as hospitalization. It is also important to design more targeted health insurance in order to increase financial support for such vulnerable groups as the poor, chronically ill, children, and senior populations.

  4. Changing perspectives in medical practice: disruptive innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterick, Zachary R; Pradhan, Sala R; Paterick, Timothy E; Waterhouse, Blake E

    2009-01-01

    Disruptive innovation represents a business model that identifies a market location and increases consumer options. Retail clinics may represent a disruptive healthcare innovation that identifies strategies to reduce the cost of healthcare at the primary care level. The future of healthcare demands disruptive innovation that will allow for the 50 million uninsured members of our society to receive medical care. Disruptive innovative solutions need to ensure access, quality, and reasonable cost. Retail clinics represent the tip of the iceberg in disruptive innovative thinking. The obstacles that retail clinics must solve will be lessons learned for those that identify future innovative techniques.

  5. Threshold behavior in electron-atom scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadeghpour, H.R.; Greene, C.H.

    1996-01-01

    Ever since the classic work of Wannier in 1953, the process of treating two threshold electrons in the continuum of a positively charged ion has been an active field of study. The authors have developed a treatment motivated by the physics below the double ionization threshold. By modeling the double ionization as a series of Landau-Zener transitions, they obtain an analytical formulation of the absolute threshold probability which has a leading power law behavior, akin to Wannier's law. Some of the noteworthy aspects of this derivation are that the derivation can be conveniently continued below threshold giving rise to a open-quotes cuspclose quotes at threshold, and that on both sides of the threshold, absolute values of the cross sections are obtained

  6. Reversed Procrastination by Focal Disruption of Medial Frontal Cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Ashwani; Diehl, Beate; Scott, Catherine; McEvoy, Andrew W; Nachev, Parashkev

    2016-11-07

    An enduring puzzle in the neuroscience of voluntary action is the origin of the remarkably wide dispersion of the reaction time distribution, an interval far greater than is explained by synaptic or signal transductive noise [1, 2]. That we are able to change our planned actions-a key criterion of volition [3]-so close to the time of their onset implies decision-making must reach deep into the execution of action itself [4-6]. It has been influentially suggested the reaction time distribution therefore reflects deliberate neural procrastination [7], giving alternative response tendencies sufficient time for fair competition in pursuing a decision threshold that determines which one is behaviorally manifest: a race model, where action selection and execution are closely interrelated [8-11]. Although the medial frontal cortex exhibits a sensitivity to reaction time on functional imaging that is consistent with such a mechanism [12-14], direct evidence from disruptive studies has hitherto been lacking. If movement-generating and movement-delaying neural substrates are closely co-localized here, a large-scale lesion will inevitably mask any acceleration, for the movement itself could be disrupted. Circumventing this problem, here we observed focal intracranial electrical disruption of the medial frontal wall in the context of the pre-surgical evaluation of two patients with epilepsy temporarily reversing such hypothesized procrastination. Effector-specific behavioral acceleration, time-locked to the period of electrical disruption, occurred exclusively at a specific locus at the ventral border of the pre-supplementary motor area. A cardinal prediction of race models of voluntary action is thereby substantiated in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Iran: the next nuclear threshold state?

    OpenAIRE

    Maurer, Christopher L.

    2014-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A nuclear threshold state is one that could quickly operationalize its peaceful nuclear program into one capable of producing a nuclear weapon. This thesis compares two known threshold states, Japan and Brazil, with Iran to determine if the Islamic Republic could also be labeled a threshold state. Furthermore, it highlights the implications such a status could have on U.S. nonproliferation policy. Although Iran's nuclear program is mir...

  8. Roots at the percolation threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroener, Eva; Ahmed, Mutez Ali; Carminati, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The rhizosphere is the layer of soil around the roots where complex and dynamic interactions between plants and soil affect the capacity of plants to take up water. The physical properties of the rhizosphere are affected by mucilage, a gel exuded by roots. Mucilage can absorb large volumes of water, but it becomes hydrophobic after drying. We use a percolation model to describe the rewetting of dry rhizosphere. We find that at a critical mucilage concentration the rhizosphere becomes impermeable. The critical mucilage concentration depends on the radius of the soil particle size. Capillary rise experiments with neutron radiography prove that for concentrations below the critical mucilage concentration water could easily cross the rhizosphere, while above the critical concentration water could no longer percolate through it. Our studies, together with former observations of water dynamics in the rhizosphere, suggest that the rhizosphere is near the percolation threshold, where small variations in mucilage concentration sensitively alter the soil hydraulic conductivity. Is mucilage exudation a plant mechanism to efficiently control the rhizosphere conductivity and the access to water?

  9. Percolation Threshold in Polycarbonate Nanocomposites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, Suresh

    2014-03-01

    Nanocomposites have unique mechanical, electrical, magnetic, optical and thermal properties. Many methods could be applied to prepare polymer-inorganic nanocomposites, such as sol-gel processing, in-situ polymerization, particle in-situ formation, blending, and radiation synthesis. The analytical composite models that have been put forth include Voigt and Reuss bounds, Polymer nanocomposites offer the possibility of substantial improvements in material properties such as shear and bulk modulus, yield strength, toughness, film scratch resistance, optical properties, electrical conductivity, gas and solvent transport, with only very small amounts of nanoparticles Experimental results are compared against composite models of Hashin and Shtrikman bounds, Halpin-Tsai model, Cox model, and various Mori and Tanaka models. Examples of numerical modeling are molecular dynamics modeling and finite element modeling of reduced modulus and hardness that takes into account the modulus of the components and the effect of the interface between the hard filler and relatively soft polymer, polycarbonate. Higher nanoparticle concentration results in poor dispersion and adhesion to polymer matrix which results in lower modulus and hardness and departure from the existing composite models. As the level of silica increases beyond a threshold level, aggregates form which results in weakening of the structure. Polymer silica interface is found to be weak as silica is non-interacting promoting interfacial slip at silica-matrix junctions. Our experimental results compare favorably with those of nanocomposites of polyesters where the effect of nanoclay on composite hardness and modulus depended on dispersion of nanoclay in polyester.

  10. Dynamical thresholds for complete fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, K.T.R.; Sierk, A.J.; Nix, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    It is our purpose here to study the effect of nuclear dissipation and shape parametrization on dynamical thresholds for compound-nucleus formation in symmetric heavy-ion reactions. This is done by solving numerically classical equations of motion for head-on collisions to determine whether the dynamical trajectory in a multidimensional deformation space passes inside the fission saddle point and forms a compound nucleus, or whether it passes outside the fission saddle point and reseparates in a fast-fission or deep-inelastic reaction. Specifying the nuclear shape in terms of smoothly joined portions of three quadratic surfaces of revolution, we take into account three symmetric deformation coordinates. However, in some cases we reduce the number of coordinates to two by requiring the ends of the fusing system to be spherical in shape. The nuclear potential energy of deformation is determined in terms of a Coulomb energy and a double volume energy of a Yukawa-plus-exponential folding function. The collective kinetic energy is calculated for incompressible, nearly irrotational flow by means of the Werner-Wheeler approximation. Four possibilities are studied for the transfer of collective kinetic energy into internal single-particle excitation energy: zero dissipation, ordinary two body viscosity, one-body wall-formula dissipation, and one-body wall-and-window dissipation

  11. Efficient threshold for volumetric segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdescu, Dumitru D.; Brezovan, Marius; Stanescu, Liana; Stoica Spahiu, Cosmin; Ebanca, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    Image segmentation plays a crucial role in effective understanding of digital images. However, the research on the existence of general purpose segmentation algorithm that suits for variety of applications is still very much active. Among the many approaches in performing image segmentation, graph based approach is gaining popularity primarily due to its ability in reflecting global image properties. Volumetric image segmentation can simply result an image partition composed by relevant regions, but the most fundamental challenge in segmentation algorithm is to precisely define the volumetric extent of some object, which may be represented by the union of multiple regions. The aim in this paper is to present a new method to detect visual objects from color volumetric images and efficient threshold. We present a unified framework for volumetric image segmentation and contour extraction that uses a virtual tree-hexagonal structure defined on the set of the image voxels. The advantage of using a virtual tree-hexagonal network superposed over the initial image voxels is that it reduces the execution time and the memory space used, without losing the initial resolution of the image.

  12. Error Thresholds on Dynamic Fittness-Landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Martin; Snoad, Nigel

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we investigate error-thresholds on dynamics fitness-landscapes. We show that there exists both lower and an upper threshold, representing limits to the copying fidelity of simple replicators. The lower bound can be expressed as a correction term to the error-threshold present on a static landscape. The upper error-threshold is a new limit that only exists on dynamic fitness-landscapes. We also show that for long genomes on highly dynamic fitness-landscapes there exists a lower b...

  13. Basic mechanisms of catastrophic epilepsy – overview from animal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanopoulou, Aristea S.

    2013-01-01

    Infantile spasms are age-specific seizures of infantile epileptic encephalopathies that are usually associated with poor epilepsy and neurodevelopmental outcomes. The current treatments are not always effective and may be associated with significant side effects. Various mechanisms have been proposed as pathogenic for infantile spasms, including cortical or brainstem dysfunction, disruption of normal cortical-subcortical communications, genetic defects, inflammation, stress, developmental abnormalities. Many of these have been recently tested experimentally, resulting into the emergence of several animal models of infantile spasms. The stress theory of spasms yielded the corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) induced model, which showed the higher proconvulsant potency of CRH in developing rats, although only limbic seizures were observed. Models of acute induction of infantile spasms in rodents include the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) model of emprosthotonic seizures, the prenatal betamethasone and prenatal stress variants of the NMDA model, and the γ-butyrolactone induced spasms in a Down’s syndrome mouse model. Chronic rodent models of infantile spasms include the tetrodotoxin model and the multiple-hit models in rats, as well as two genetic mouse models of interneuronopathies with infantile spasms due to loss of function of the aristaless X-linked homeobox related gene (ARX). This review discusses the emerging mechanisms for generation of infantile spasms and their associated chronic epileptic and dyscognitive phenotype as well as the recent progress in identifying pathways to better treat this epileptic encephalopathy. PMID:23312951

  14. Disruptive Innovation in Numerical Hydrodynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waltz, Jacob I. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-09-06

    We propose the research and development of a high-fidelity hydrodynamic algorithm for tetrahedral meshes that will lead to a disruptive innovation in the numerical modeling of Laboratory problems. Our proposed innovation has the potential to reduce turnaround time by orders of magnitude relative to Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) codes; reduce simulation setup costs by millions of dollars per year; and effectively leverage Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and future Exascale computing hardware. If successful, this work will lead to a dramatic leap forward in the Laboratory's quest for a predictive simulation capability.

  15. Incumbent response to disruptive innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulio, Matti; Thorén, Kent; Rohrbeck, René

    changes, however successful in minor business model adaptions. An implication hereof is that the business model concept as such has low predictive power in explaining success and failure and is in the need of an operationalization. In addition, the article discusses the relationship between technological...... in relation to disruptive change. In relation to technical change the case company has successfully in transferred its technology from one generation to the next during more than 20 years. In relation to business model change the case company has been proactive but not successful in major business model...... innovation and business innovation....

  16. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertently by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 buildup, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that both regional and global catastrophic risks must be taken into consideration in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risks is proposed. (author)

  17. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  18. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  19. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

    2016-09-13

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  20. On the implications of thresholds for economic science and environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalbers, R.

    1999-05-11

    This thesis consists of four chapters on the topic of thresholds. Chapter 2 deals with the issue of a truly catastrophic threshold. Society has perfect information on both the location and the impact of crossing the threshold. The assumption is made that crossing the threshold will result in the destruction of all human utility on earth (which is not the same as the destruction of all human life on earth). On the basis of a simple neoclassical growth model the question is posed under what conditions society would like to cross the threshold, and hence, initiate a catastrophe. The trade-off for society is to have a relatively low consumption level for an infinite period of time, or to have a relatively high consumption level for a short period of time. Perhaps surprisingly, it turns out that the doomsday scenario may be optimal (in the sense of maximizing human utility). Chapter 3 extends the analysis of the second chapter by allowing society to spend resources either on consumption or on abatement. In chapter 4 the assumption of certainty of information about both the location and the impact of a threshold is relaxed. Instead it is assumed that a society has information - in the form of a probability density function - about both the location of the threshold and its impact. What then is the optimal strategy for that society? In addition, it will be analysed how society`s optimal strategy changes, if the uncertainty increases. We will see that if uncertainty about the impact of the threshold increases, society`s strategy will become more prudent. Moreover, it is argued that any form of cost-benefit analysis must - whenever thresholds cannot be excluded a priori from the analysis - necessarily be based on arbitrary, in the sense of non-empirically verifiable, assumptions about the shape of the damage function. Finally, the author examines the case in which society has not enough - quantitative or qualitative - information in order to obtain, or estimate, a

  1. Disruptive innovation for social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Clayton M; Baumann, Heiner; Ruggles, Rudy; Sadtler, Thomas M

    2006-12-01

    Countries, organizations, and individuals around the globe spend aggressively to solve social problems, but these efforts often fail to deliver. Misdirected investment is the primary reason for that failure. Most of the money earmarked for social initiatives goes to organizations that are structured to support specific groups of recipients, often with sophisticated solutions. Such organizations rarely reach the broader populations that could be served by simpler alternatives. There is, however, an effective way to get to those underserved populations. The authors call it "catalytic innovation." Based on Clayton Christensen's disruptive-innovation model, catalytic innovations challenge organizational incumbents by offering simpler, good-enough solutions aimed at underserved groups. Unlike disruptive innovations, though, catalytic innovations are focused on creating social change. Catalytic innovators are defined by five distinct qualities. First, they create social change through scaling and replication. Second, they meet a need that is either overserved (that is, the existing solution is more complex than necessary for many people) or not served at all. Third, the products and services they offer are simpler and cheaper than alternatives, but recipients view them as good enough. Fourth, they bring in resources in ways that initially seem unattractive to incumbents. And fifth, they are often ignored, put down, or even encouraged by existing organizations, which don't see the catalytic innovators' solutions as viable. As the authors show through examples in health care, education, and economic development, both nonprofit and for-profit groups are finding ways to create catalytic innovation that drives social change.

  2. Tokamak disruption heat flux simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langhoff, M.; Hess, G.; Gahl, J.; Ingram, R.

    1990-01-01

    A coaxial plasma gun system, operating in the deflagration mode, has been built and fired at the University of New Mexico. This system, powered by a 100 kJ capacitor bank, was designed to give a variable pulse length of approximately 50-100 us. The gun is intended to deliver to a target an energy deposition density of 1 kJ per cm 2 via impact with a deuterium plasma possessing a highly directed energy. This system should simulate on the target, over an area of approximately 10 cm 2 , the heat flux of a tokamak plasma disruption on plasma facing components. Current diagnostics for the system are rather rudimentary but sufficient for determination of plasma pulse characteristics and energy transfer to target. Electrical measurements include bank voltage measured via resistive voltage dividers, and bank current measured via Rogowski coil. The shape of the plasma, its position relative to the target area, and the final impact area, is determined via open-shutter photography and the use of witness plates. Total energy deposited onto targets will be determined through simple calorimetry and careful target mass measurements. Preliminary results describing the ablation of carbon targets exposed to disruption like heat fluxes will be presented as well as a description of the experimental apparatus

  3. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  4. Long-range pulselength scaling of 351nm laser damage thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foltyn, S. R.; Jolin, L. J.

    1986-12-01

    In a series of experiments incorporating 351nm pulselength of 9, 26, 54, and 625ns, it was found that laser damage thresholds increased as (pulselength)/sup x/, and that the exponent averaged 0.36 and ranged, for different samples, from 0.23 to 0.48. Similar results were obtained when only catastrophic damage was considered. Samples included Al2O3/SiO2 in both AR and HR multilayers, HR's of Sc2O3/SiO2 and HfO2/SiO2, and Al-on-pyrex mirror; 9ns thresholds were between 0.2 to 5.6 J/sq cm. When these data were compared with a wide range of other results - for wavelengths from 0.25 to 10.6 microns and pulselengths down to 4ps - a remarkably consistent picture emerged. Damage thresholds, on average, increase approximately as the cube-root of pulselength from picoseconds to nearly a microsecond, and do so regardless of wavelength or material under test.

  5. Time-efficient multidimensional threshold tracking method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fereczkowski, Michal; Kowalewski, Borys; Dau, Torsten

    2015-01-01

    Traditionally, adaptive methods have been used to reduce the time it takes to estimate psychoacoustic thresholds. However, even with adaptive methods, there are many cases where the testing time is too long to be clinically feasible, particularly when estimating thresholds as a function of anothe...

  6. Applying Threshold Concepts to Finance Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoadley, Susan; Wood, Leigh N.; Tickle, Leonie; Kyng, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate and identify threshold concepts that are the essential conceptual content of finance programmes. Design/Methodology/Approach: Conducted in three stages with finance academics and students, the study uses threshold concepts as both a theoretical framework and a research methodology. Findings: The…

  7. Voting on Thresholds for Public Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rauchdobler, Julian; Sausgruber, Rupert; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    2010-01-01

    Introducing a threshold in the sense of a minimal project size transforms a public-good game with an inefficient equilibrium into a coordination game with a set of Pareto-superior equilibria. Thresholds may therefore improve efficiency in the voluntary provision of public goods. In our one-shot e...

  8. Intelligence and Creativity: Over the Threshold Together?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welter, Marisete Maria; Jaarsveld, Saskia; van Leeuwen, Cees; Lachmann, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Threshold theory predicts a positive correlation between IQ and creativity scores up to an IQ level of 120 and no correlation above this threshold. Primary school children were tested at beginning (N = 98) and ending (N = 70) of the school year. Participants performed the standard progressive matrices (SPM) and the Test of Creative…

  9. Threshold Concepts, Systems and Learning for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Orana Jade

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for understanding the role that systems theory might play in education for sustainability (EfS). It offers a sketch and critique of Land and Meyer's notion of a "threshold concept", to argue that seeing systems as a threshold concept for sustainability is useful for understanding the processes of…

  10. Evaluation of the Detection Threshold of Three ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A mean count of 39 pigments per microlitre was obtained for these five patients. Both HEXAGON MALARIA and SD-BIOLINE had a detection threshold of 4 pigments per microlitre, while ACCU-STAT MALARIA had 20 pigments per microlitre. This suggests that these three kits have good detection thresholds and could ...

  11. Log canonical thresholds of smooth Fano threefolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheltsov, Ivan A; Shramov, Konstantin A

    2008-01-01

    The complex singularity exponent is a local invariant of a holomorphic function determined by the integrability of fractional powers of the function. The log canonical thresholds of effective Q-divisors on normal algebraic varieties are algebraic counterparts of complex singularity exponents. For a Fano variety, these invariants have global analogues. In the former case, it is the so-called α-invariant of Tian; in the latter case, it is the global log canonical threshold of the Fano variety, which is the infimum of log canonical thresholds of all effective Q-divisors numerically equivalent to the anticanonical divisor. An appendix to this paper contains a proof that the global log canonical threshold of a smooth Fano variety coincides with its α-invariant of Tian. The purpose of the paper is to compute the global log canonical thresholds of smooth Fano threefolds (altogether, there are 105 deformation families of such threefolds). The global log canonical thresholds are computed for every smooth threefold in 64 deformation families, and the global log canonical thresholds are computed for a general threefold in 20 deformation families. Some bounds for the global log canonical thresholds are computed for 14 deformation families. Appendix A is due to J.-P. Demailly.

  12. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  13. Catastrophic health expenses and impoverishment of households of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Hernández, Everardo; Peláez-Ballestas, Ingris; Boonen, Annelies; Vázquez-Mellado, Janitzia; Hernández-Garduño, Adolfo; Rivera, Fernando Carlos; Teran-Estrada, Leobardo; Ventura-Ríos, Lucio; Ramos-Remus, César; Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra; Goycochea-Robles, Maria Victoria; Bernard-Medina, Ana Guislaine; Burgos-Vargas, Rubén

    2012-01-01

    The cost of certain diseases may lead to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment of households without full financial support by the state and other organizations. To determine the socioeconomic impact of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cost in the context of catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. This is a cohort-nested cross-sectional multicenter study on the cost of RA in Mexican households with partial, full, or private health care coverage. Catastrophic expenses referred to health expenses totaling >30% of the total household income. Impoverishment defined those households that could not afford the Mexican basic food basket (BFB). We included 262 patients with a mean monthly household income (US dollars) of $376 (0–18,890.63). In all, 50.8%, 35.5%, and 13.7% of the patients had partial, full, or private health care coverage, respectively. RA annual cost was $ 5534.8 per patient (65% direct cost, 35% indirect). RA cost caused catastrophic expenses in 46.9% of households, which in the logistic regression analysis were significantly associated with the type of health care coverage (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.6–4.7) and disease duration (OR 1.024, 95%CI 1.002–1.046). Impoverishment occurred in 66.8% of households and was associated with catastrophic expenses (OR 3.6, 95%CI 1.04–14.1), high health assessment questionnaire scores (OR 4.84 95%CI 1.01–23.3), and low socioeconomic level (OR 4.66, 95%CI 1.37–15.87). The cost of RA in Mexican households, particularly those lacking full health coverage leads to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. These findings could be the same in countries with fragmented health care systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  14. Underestimation of pacing threshold as determined by an automatic ventricular threshold testing algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, William H; Cooper, Joshua M; Lai, Rebecca W; Verdino, Ralph J

    2006-09-01

    In this case report, we describe markedly different pacing thresholds determined by a manual threshold test and the automatic Ventricular Capture Management algorithm. The discrepancy in pacing threshold values reported was due to the difference in the AV intervals used with the different testing methods. We propose that the differences in right ventricular dimensions with altered diastolic filling periods affected the threshold in this patient with a new passive fixation lead in the right ventricular apex.

  15. Rainfall thresholds and susceptibility mapping for shallow landslides and debris flows in Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dijkstra, Tom; Dixon, Neil

    2017-04-01

    Shallow translational slides and debris flows (hereafter 'landslides') pose a significant threat to life and cause significant annual economic impacts (e.g. by damage and disruption of infrastructure). The focus of this research is on the definition of objective rainfall thresholds using a weather radar system and landslide susceptibility mapping. In the study area Scotland, an inventory of 75 known landslides was used for the period 2003 to 2016. First, the effect of using different rain records (i.e. time series length) on two threshold selection techniques in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was evaluated. The results show that thresholds selected by 'Threat Score' (minimising false alarms) are sensitive to rain record length and which is not routinely considered, whereas thresholds selected using 'Optimal Point' (minimising failed alarms) are not; therefore these may be suited to establishing lower limit thresholds and be of interest to those developing early warning systems. Robust thresholds are found for combinations of normalised rain duration and accumulation at 1 and 12 day's antecedence respectively; these are normalised using the rainy-day normal and an equivalent measure for rain intensity. This research indicates that, in Scotland, rain accumulation provides a better indicator than rain intensity and that landslides may be generated by threshold conditions lower than previously thought. Second, a landslide susceptibility map is constructed using a cross-validated logistic regression model. A novel element of the approach is that landslide susceptibility is calculated for individual hillslope sections. The developed thresholds and susceptibility map are combined to assess potential hazards and impacts posed to the national highway network in Scotland.

  16. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  17. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  18. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  19. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  20. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  1. Chronicle of a death foretold: a case of catastrophic vascular Behcet's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Elitzur, Yair; Korach, Amit; Hiller, Nurith; Chajek-Shaul, Tova

    2007-03-01

    A 20-year-old man with Behcet's disease characterized by recurrent arterial aneurysms presented with a new aortic root aneurysm. This patient previously had aneurysms of the coronary arteries and vein, as well as ruptured renal artery aneurysm. Chronic maintenance immunosuppressive therapy was recommended due to the catastrophic nature of the disease, which the patient refused to take. The patient died shortly after admission. This case demonstrates the unique catastrophic natural history of vascular Behcet's disease with recurrent life-threatening arterial events, and this case stresses the therapeutic dilemma of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy in selected patients.

  2. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  3. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  4. Current concepts in neuroendocrine disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León-Olea, Martha; Martyniuk, Christopher J; Orlando, Edward F; Ottinger, Mary Ann; Rosenfeld, Cheryl; Wolstenholme, Jennifer; Trudeau, Vance L

    2014-07-01

    In the last few years, it has become clear that a wide variety of environmental contaminants have specific effects on neuroendocrine systems in fish, amphibians, birds and mammals. While it is beyond the scope of this review to provide a comprehensive examination of all of these neuroendocrine disruptors, we will focus on select representative examples. Organochlorine pesticides bioaccumulate in neuroendocrine areas of the brain that directly regulate GnRH neurons, thereby altering the expression of genes downstream of GnRH signaling. Organochlorine pesticides can also agonize or antagonize hormone receptors, adversely affecting crosstalk between neurotransmitter systems. The impacts of polychlorinated biphenyls are varied and in many cases subtle. This is particularly true for neuroedocrine and behavioral effects of exposure. These effects impact sexual differentiation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, and other neuroendocrine systems regulating the thyroid, metabolic, and stress axes and their physiological responses. Weakly estrogenic and anti-androgenic pollutants such as bisphenol A, phthalates, phytochemicals, and the fungicide vinclozolin can lead to severe and widespread neuroendocrine disruptions in discrete brain regions, including the hippocampus, amygdala, and hypothalamus, resulting in behavioral changes in a wide range of species. Behavioral features that have been shown to be affected by one or more these chemicals include cognitive deficits, heightened anxiety or anxiety-like, sociosexual, locomotor, and appetitive behaviors. Neuroactive pharmaceuticals are now widely detected in aquatic environments and water supplies through the release of wastewater treatment plant effluents. The antidepressant fluoxetine is one such pharmaceutical neuroendocrine disruptor. Fluoxetine is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor that can affect multiple neuroendocrine pathways and behavioral circuits, including disruptive effects on reproduction and

  5. Current Concepts in Neuroendocrine Disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    In the last few years, it has become clear that a wide variety of environmental contaminants have specific effects on neuroendocrine systems in fish, amphibians, birds and mammals. While it is beyond the scope of this review to provide a comprehensive examination of all of these neuroendocrine disruptors, we will focus on select representative examples. Organochlorine pesticides bioaccumulate in neuroendocrine areas of the brain that directly regulate GnRH neurons, thereby altering the expression of genes downstream of GnRH signaling. Organochlorine pesticides can also agonize or antagonize hormone receptors, adversely affecting crosstalk between neurotransmitter systems. The impacts of polychlorinated biphenyls are varied and in many cases subtle. This is particularly true for neuroedocrine and behavioral effects of exposure. These effects impact sexual differentiation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, and other neuroendocrine systems regulating the thyroid, metabolic, and stress axes and their physiological responses. Weakly estrogenic and anti-androgenic pollutants such as bisphenol A, phthalates, phytochemicals, and the fungicide vinclozolin can lead to severe and widespread neuroendocrine disruptions in discrete brain regions, including the hippocampus, amygdala, and hypothalamus, resulting in behavioral changes in a wide range of species. Behavioral features that have been shown to be affected by one or more these chemicals include cognitive deficits, heightened anxiety or anxiety-like, sociosexual, locomotor, and appetitive behaviors. Neuroactive pharmaceuticals are now widely detected in aquatic environments and water supplies through the release of wastewater treatment plant effluents. The antidepressant fluoxetine is one such pharmaceutical neuroendocrine disruptor. Fluoxetine is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor that can affect multiple neuroendocrine pathways and behavioral circuits, including disruptive effects on reproduction and

  6. A Threshold Continuum for Aeolian Sand Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, C.; Ewing, R. C.; Sherman, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport marks the initial entrainment of sand particles by the force of the wind. This is typically defined and modeled as a singular wind speed for a given grain size and is based on field and laboratory experimental data. However, the definition of threshold varies significantly between these empirical models, largely because the definition is based on visual-observations of initial grain movement. For example, in his seminal experiments, Bagnold defined threshold of motion when he observed that 100% of the bed was in motion. Others have used 50% and lesser values. Differences in threshold models, in turn, result is large errors in predicting the fluxes associated with sand and dust transport. Here we use a wind tunnel and novel sediment trap to capture the fractions of sand in creep, reptation and saltation at Earth and Mars pressures and show that the threshold of motion for aeolian sand transport is best defined as a continuum in which grains progress through stages defined by the proportion of grains in creep and saltation. We propose the use of scale dependent thresholds modeled by distinct probability distribution functions that differentiate the threshold based on micro to macro scale applications. For example, a geologic timescale application corresponds to a threshold when 100% of the bed in motion whereas a sub-second application corresponds to a threshold when a single particle is set in motion. We provide quantitative measurements (number and mode of particle movement) corresponding to visual observations, percent of bed in motion and degrees of transport intermittency for Earth and Mars. Understanding transport as a continuum provides a basis for revaluating sand transport thresholds on Earth, Mars and Titan.

  7. Current disruption in toroidal devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-07-01

    Attempts at raising the density or the plasma current in a tokamak above certain critical values generally result in termination of the discharge by a disruption. This sudden end of the plasma current and plasma confinement is accompanied by large induced voltages and currents in the outer structures which, in large tokamaks, can only be handled with considerable effort, and which will probably only be tolerable in reactors as rare accidents. Because of its crucial importance for the construction and operation of tokamaks, this phenomenon and its theoretical interpretation were the subject of a three-day symposium organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency and Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik at Garching from February 14 to 16. (orig./HT)

  8. Automatic location of disruption times in JET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, R; Vega, J; Murari, A

    2014-11-01

    The loss of stability and confinement in tokamak plasmas can induce critical events known as disruptions. Disruptions produce strong electromagnetic forces and thermal loads which can damage fundamental components of the devices. Determining the disruption time is extremely important for various disruption studies: theoretical models, physics-driven models, or disruption predictors. In JET, during the experimental campaigns with the JET-C (Carbon Fiber Composite) wall, a common criterion to determine the disruption time consisted of locating the time of the thermal quench. However, with the metallic ITER-like wall (JET-ILW), this criterion is usually not valid. Several thermal quenches may occur previous to the current quench but the temperature recovers. Therefore, a new criterion has to be defined. A possibility is to use the start of the current quench as disruption time. This work describes the implementation of an automatic data processing method to estimate the disruption time according to this new definition. This automatic determination allows both reducing human efforts to locate the disruption times and standardizing the estimates (with the benefit of being less vulnerable to human errors).

  9. Disruption of Perceptual Learning by a Brief Practice Break.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, David F; Zhang, Yu-Xuan; Wright, Beverly A

    2017-12-04

    Some forms of associative learning require only a single experience to create a lasting memory [1, 2]. In contrast, perceptual learning often requires extensive practice within a day for performance to improve across days [3, 4]. This suggests that the requisite practice for durable perceptual learning is integrated throughout each day. If the total amount of daily practice is the only important variable, then a practice break within a day should not disrupt across-day improvement. To test this idea, we trained human listeners on an auditory frequency-discrimination task over multiple days and compared the performance of those who engaged in a single continuous practice session each day [4] with those who were given a 30-min break halfway through each practice session. Continuous practice yielded significant perceptual learning [4]. In contrast, practice with a rest break led to no improvement, indicating that the integration process had decayed within 30 min. In a separate experiment, a 30-min practice break also disrupted durable learning on a non-native phonetic classification task. These results suggest that practice trials are integrated up to a learning threshold within a transient memory store before they are sent en masse into a memory that lasts across days. Thus, the oft cited benefits of distributed over massed training [5, 6] may arise from different mechanisms depending on whether the breaks occur before or after a learning threshold has been reached. Trial integration could serve as an early gatekeeper to plasticity, helping to ensure that longer-lasting changes are only made when deemed worthwhile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Hyper-arousal decreases human visual thresholds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Woods

    Full Text Available Arousal has long been known to influence behavior and serves as an underlying component of cognition and consciousness. However, the consequences of hyper-arousal for visual perception remain unclear. The present study evaluates the impact of hyper-arousal on two aspects of visual sensitivity: visual stereoacuity and contrast thresholds. Sixty-eight participants participated in two experiments. Thirty-four participants were randomly divided into two groups in each experiment: Arousal Stimulation or Sham Control. The Arousal Stimulation group underwent a 50-second cold pressor stimulation (immersing the foot in 0-2° C water, a technique known to increase arousal. In contrast, the Sham Control group immersed their foot in room temperature water. Stereoacuity thresholds (Experiment 1 and contrast thresholds (Experiment 2 were measured before and after stimulation. The Arousal Stimulation groups demonstrated significantly lower stereoacuity and contrast thresholds following cold pressor stimulation, whereas the Sham Control groups showed no difference in thresholds. These results provide the first evidence that hyper-arousal from sensory stimulation can lower visual thresholds. Hyper-arousal's ability to decrease visual thresholds has important implications for survival, sports, and everyday life.

  11. Automatic histogram threshold using fuzzy measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira Lopes, Nuno; Mogadouro do Couto, Pedro A; Bustince, Humberto; Melo-Pinto, Pedro

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an automatic histogram threshold approach based on a fuzziness measure is presented. This work is an improvement of an existing method. Using fuzzy logic concepts, the problems involved in finding the minimum of a criterion function are avoided. Similarity between gray levels is the key to find an optimal threshold. Two initial regions of gray levels, located at the boundaries of the histogram, are defined. Then, using an index of fuzziness, a similarity process is started to find the threshold point. A significant contrast between objects and background is assumed. Previous histogram equalization is used in small contrast images. No prior knowledge of the image is required.

  12. Reaction thresholds in doubly special relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyman, Daniel; Major, Seth; Hinteleitner, Franz

    2004-01-01

    Two theories of special relativity with an additional invariant scale, 'doubly special relativity', are tested with calculations of particle process kinematics. Using the Judes-Visser modified conservation laws, thresholds are studied in both theories. In contrast with some linear approximations, which allow for particle processes forbidden in special relativity, both the Amelino-Camelia and Magueijo-Smolin frameworks allow no additional processes. To first order, the Amelino-Camelia framework thresholds are lowered and the Magueijo-Smolin framework thresholds may be raised or lowered

  13. Digital IP Protection Using Threshold Voltage Control

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Joseph; Kulkarni, Niranjan; Yang, Jinghua; Dengi, Aykut; Vrudhula, Sarma

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a method to completely hide the functionality of a digital standard cell. This is accomplished by a differential threshold logic gate (TLG). A TLG with $n$ inputs implements a subset of Boolean functions of $n$ variables that are linear threshold functions. The output of such a gate is one if and only if an integer weighted linear arithmetic sum of the inputs equals or exceeds a given integer threshold. We present a novel architecture of a TLG that not only allows a single...

  14. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  15. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk

    2015-01-01

    in the escitalopram group. No other between-group differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Escitalopram did not reduce pain upon ambulation 24 h after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. Future studies on optimal timing, dose, and duration of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment might be warranted....

  16. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  17. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  18. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  19. Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2001-01-01

    A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe

  20. Children, Literacy and Mass Trauma Teaching in Times of Catastrophic Events and on Going Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Denny

    2006-01-01

    This article focuses on children living in areas of armed conflict, catastrophic events and on-going emergencies. Based upon her ethnographic research, the author wants to try to share some insights into the complexities of the world in which children sometimes have to fight to live. Her intent is to create a space in which a discussion can take…

  1. The Media and the Fate of the Medicare Catastrophic Extension Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, David P.; Norem, Lois

    A study examined the relationships between the media, public opinion and the Medicare Catastrophic Act of 1988 which was repealed in 1989. Using the NEXIS electronic database, 11 years (1977-89) of news articles, opinion pieces, editorials, and letters to the editor were harvested in random sequence from the Associated Press news wire, the…

  2. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severeijns, R.; Vlaeyen, J.W.S.; Hout, M.A. van den

    2006-01-01

    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of

  3. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  4. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  5. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  6. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the investigation of the catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine used for underground reaming operations. The results of the investigation indicate that failure was due to the fracture of the 32 drive head bolts, 30...

  7. Genome Sequencing of Pediatric Medulloblastoma Links Catastrophic DNA Rearrangements with TP53 Mutations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rausch, Tobias; Jones, David T. W.; Zapatka, Marc; Stütz, Adrian M.; Zichner, Thomas; Weischenfeldt, Joachim; Jäger, Natalie; Remke, Marc; Shih, David; Northcott, Paul A.; Pfaff, Elke; Tica, Jelena; Wang, Qi; Massimi, Luca; Witt, Hendrik; Bender, Sebastian; Pleier, Sabrina; Cin, Huriye; Hawkins, Cynthia; Beck, Christian; von Deimling, Andreas; Hans, Volkmar; Brors, Benedikt; Eils, Roland; Scheurlen, Wolfram; Blake, Jonathon; Benes, Vladimir; Kulozik, Andreas E.; Witt, Olaf; Martin, Dianna; Zhang, Cindy; Porat, Rinnat; Merino, Diana M.; Wasserman, Jonathan; Jabado, Nada; Fontebasso, Adam; Bullinger, Lars; Rücker, Frank G.; Döhner, Konstanze; Döhner, Hartmut; Koster, Jan; Molenaar, Jan J.; Versteeg, Rogier; Kool, Marcel; Tabori, Uri; Malkin, David; Korshunov, Andrey; Taylor, Michael D.; Lichter, Peter; Pfister, Stefan M.; Korbel, Jan O.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic rearrangements are thought to occur progressively during tumor development. Recent findings, however, suggest an alternative mechanism, involving massive chromosome rearrangements in a one-step catastrophic event termed chromothripsis. We report the whole-genome sequencing-based analysis of

  8. Contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Kim, Yun-Ho; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2016-05-01

    Pain catastrophizing is a key variable that contributes to disability not only in chronic pain disorders but also after trauma. However, there is little evidence concerning the effect of catastrophizing on pain intensity and disability after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. We analyzed 35 patients with acute single-level osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures within 3 days of trauma. Data on demographics, education level, Charlson comorbidity index, pain catastrophizing scale (PCS) score, visual analog scale (VAS) score for back pain, and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were collected. VAS score for back pain and ODI were assessed at enrollment as well as at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after fracture. Each VAS score for back pain and ODI significantly improved compared to the initial values (P osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. As the compression fracture heals, however, age is the critical determinant of disability. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  10. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  11. Forest inventory, catastrophic events and historic geospatial assessments in the south

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis M. Jacobs

    2007-01-01

    Catastrophic events are a regular occurrence of disturbance to forestland in the Southern United States. Each major event affects the integrity of the forest inventory database developed and maintained by the Forest Inventory & Analysis Research Work Unit of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Some of these major disturbances through the years have...

  12. A Ensaistica de Robert Kurz: Catastrofismo e Lucidez (The Essays of Robert Kurz: Catastrophism and Lucidity).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Jose Carlos

    2000-01-01

    Uses an interpretive approach to the work of Robert Kurz, a German sociologist/essayist whose work has been translated and published in Brazil and who has advanced an apparently "catastrophic thesis" regarding the collapse of the "goods-producing society," or hyperdeveloped capitalism. (BT)

  13. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  14. Price and Welfare Effects of Catastrophic Forest Damage from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes

    1991-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) epidemics are periodically responsible for catastrophic levels of mortality to southern yellow pine forests. Traditional forest damage appraisal techniques developed for site specific economic analysis are theoretically weak since they do not consider aggregate impacts across ecosystems and related markets. Because the...

  15. Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; James K. Agee; Peter Fule; Jon E. Keeley; Carl Key; Stanley G. Kitchen; Richard Miller; Lisa A. Schulte

    2008-01-01

    The perception is that today's large fires are an ecological catastrophe because they burn vast areas with high intensities and severities. However, little is known of the ecological impacts of large fires on both historical and contemporary landscapes. The present paper presents a review of the current knowledge of the effects of large fires in the United States...

  16. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  17. Catastrophic windthrow in the Southern Appalachians: characteristics of pits and mounds and initial vegetation responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton D. Clinton; Corey R. Baker

    2000-01-01

    We characterized pit and mound (PM) topography resulting from catastrophic wind in the Coweeta Basin, and located 48 PM’s across a variety of forest types. Our measurements included pit length, width, and depth; and mound height, thickness, and width. Species of fallen trees were...

  18. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  19. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  20. Modeling demand for catastrophic flood risk insurance in Vietnam using choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Bui, T.; Tuan, T.; Magnussen, K.; Navrud, S.

    2014-01-01

    In a choice experiment, households in Vietnam are offered flood insurance to mitigate increasing catastrophic flood risks due to climate change. Participants are asked to choose their most preferred insurance policy given expected future flood and mortality risks, insurance cover and associated