Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-22

Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

2014-01-01

We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

On sociological catastrophe analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clausen, L.

1974-01-01

The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

2018-04-19

Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth Morris

2011-07-01

Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

Seizing Catastrophes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2013-01-01

to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

Climate catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Budyko, Mikhail

1999-05-01

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

OpenAIRE

Choi, Sooyeon

2011-01-01

In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Barry P

2005-11-01

Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

2015-01-01

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

2015-09-01

Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

The Ongoing Catastrophe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2015-01-01

as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance in Enhancing Better Accessibility and Lowering the Chance of Having Financial Catastrophe Due to Health Service Utilization: A Case Study of Savannakhet Province, Laos.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodhisane, Somdeth; Pongpanich, Sathirakorn

2017-07-01

The Lao population mostly relies on out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services. This study aims to determine the role of community-based health insurance in making health care services accessible and in preventing financial catastrophe resulting from personal payment for inpatient services. A cross-sectional study design was applied. Data collection involved 126 insured and 126 uninsured households in identical study sites. Two logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the probability of hospitalization and financial catastrophe that occurred in both insured and uninsured households within the previous year. The findings show that insurance status does not significantly improve accessibility and financial protection against catastrophic expenditure. The reason is relatively simple, as catastrophic health expenditure refers to a total out-of-pocket payment equal to or more than 40% of household income minus subsistence. When household income declines as a result of inability to work due to illness, the 40% threshold is quickly reached. Despite this, results suggest that insured households are not significantly better off under community-based health insurance. However, compared to uninsured households, insured households do have better accessibility and a lower probability of reaching the financial catastrophe threshold.

Quantum catastrophe of slow light

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

Real-time disruption handling at ASDEX upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zehetbauer, Th.; Pautasso, G.; Tichmann, C.; Egorov, S.; Lorenz, A.; Mertens, V.; Neu, G.; Raupp, G.; Treutterer, W.; Zasche, D.

2001-01-01

A neural network for prediction of disruptions has been developed at ASDEX Upgrade with the goal to mitigate or avoid these. The novel idea is to compute the remaining time-to-disruption to indicate the stability level of the discharge. The neural network has been specified, trained and then implemented within the real-time plasma control system. The current version of the system terminates the discharge with an impurity pellet when the computed time-to-disruption falls below a threshold of 80 ms. Routine operation shows that disruptions are recognized reliably. Vessel currents and forces are considerably reduced. The system will be enhanced to avoid disruptions with a soft landing initiated in time

Robustness of assembly supply chain networks by considering risk propagation and cascading failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Liang; Jing, Ke; He, Jie; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

An assembly supply chain network (ASCN) is composed of manufacturers located in different geographical regions. To analyze the robustness of this ASCN when it suffers from catastrophe disruption events, we construct a cascading failure model of risk propagation. In our model, different disruption scenarios s are considered and the probability equation of all disruption scenarios is developed. Using production capability loss as the robustness index (RI) of an ASCN, we conduct a numerical simulation to assess its robustness. Through simulation, we compare the network robustness at different values of linking intensity and node threshold and find that weak linking intensity or high node threshold increases the robustness of the ASCN. We also compare network robustness levels under different disruption scenarios.

Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Gareev, Fangil

2008-03-01

We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth D. Baum

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-04-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

On the concept of material strength and first simulations of asteroid disruption with explicit formation of spinning aggregates in the gravity regime

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, P.; Richardson, D. C.

2007-08-01

During their evolutions, the small bodies of our Solar System are affected by several mechanisms which can modify their properties. While dynamical mechanisms are at the origin of their orbital variations, there are other mechanisms which can change their shape, spin, and even their size when their strength threshold is reached, resulting in their disruption. Such mechanisms have been identified and studied, both by analytical and numerical tools. The main mechanisms that can result in the disruption of a small body are collisional events, tidal perturbations, and spin-ups. However, the efficiency of these mechanisms depends on the strength of the material constituing the small body, which also plays a role in its possible equilibrium shape. We will present several important aspects of material strength that are believed to be adapted to Solar System small bodies and briefly review the most recent studies of the different mechanisms that can be at the origin of the disruption of these bodies. In particular, we have recently made a major improvement in the simulations of asteroid disruption by computing explicitly the formation of aggregates during the gravitational reaccumulation of small fragments, allowing us to obtain information on their spin, the number of boulders composing them or lying on their surface, and their shape.We will present the first and preliminary results of this process taking as examples some asteroid families that we reproduced successfully with our previous simulations (Michel et al. 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004a,b), and their possible implications on the properties of asteroids generated by a disruption. Such information can for instance be compared with data provided by the Japanese space mission Hayabusa of the asteroid Itokawa, a body now understood to be a fragment of a larger parent body. It is also clear that future space missions to small bodies devoted to precise in-situ analysis and sample return will allow us to improve our

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal

How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michielsen, T.

2013-02-15

I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

1996-12-31

The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, M V; Howls, C J

2010-01-01

Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, G.

1991-01-01

The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

Mitotic catastrophe occurs in the absence of apoptosis in p53-null cells with a defective G1 checkpoint.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalis Fragkos

Full Text Available Cell death occurring during mitosis, or mitotic catastrophe, often takes place in conjunction with apoptosis, but the conditions in which mitotic catastrophe may exhibit features of programmed cell death are still unclear. In the work presented here, we studied mitotic cell death by making use of a UV-inactivated parvovirus (adeno-associated virus; AAV that has been shown to induce a DNA damage response and subsequent death of p53-defective cells in mitosis, without affecting the integrity of the host genome. Osteosarcoma cells (U2OSp53DD that are deficient in p53 and lack the G1 cell cycle checkpoint respond to AAV infection through a transient G2 arrest. We found that the infected U2OSp53DD cells died through mitotic catastrophe with no signs of chromosome condensation or DNA fragmentation. Moreover, cell death was independent of caspases, apoptosis-inducing factor (AIF, autophagy and necroptosis. These findings were confirmed by time-lapse microscopy of cellular morphology following AAV infection. The assays used readily revealed apoptosis in other cell types when it was indeed occurring. Taken together the results indicate that in the absence of the G1 checkpoint, mitotic catastrophe occurs in these p53-null cells predominantly as a result of mechanical disruption induced by centrosome overduplication, and not as a consequence of a suicide signal.

Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

2003-01-01

The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

Pain Catastrophizing and Anxiety are Associated With Heat Pain Perception in a Community Sample of Adults With Chronic Pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Terry, Marisa J; Moeschler, Susan M; Hoelzer, Bryan C; Hooten, W Michael

2016-10-01

The principle aim of this study was to investigate the associations between heat pain (HP) perception, pain catastrophizing, and pain-related anxiety in a heterogenous cohort of community-dwelling adults with chronic pain admitted to a 3-week outpatient pain rehabilitation program. All adults consecutively admitted to an outpatient pain rehabilitation program from July 2009 through January 2011 were eligible for study recruitment (n=574). Upon admission, patients completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), the short version of the Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale (PASS-20), and HP perception was assessed using a standardized quantitative sensory testing (QST) method of levels. Greater PCS scores were significantly correlated with lower standardized values of HP threshold (HP 0.5) (P=0.006) and tolerance (HP 5) (P=0.003). In a multiple variable model adjusted for demographic and clinical factors known to influence HP perception, every 10-point increase in the PCS was associated with a -0.124 point change in HP 0.5 (P=0.014) and a -0.142 change in HP 5 (P=0.014) indicating that participants with higher PCS scores had lower HP thresholds and tolerances, respectively. Similarly, greater PASS-20 scores significantly correlated with lower standardized values of HP 0.5 and HP 5. In a multiple variable model, every 10-point increase in the PASS-20 was associated with a -0.084 point change in HP 0.5 (P=0.005) and a -0.116 point change in HP 5 (P=0.001) indicating that participants with higher PASS-20 scores had lower HP thresholds and tolerances, respectively. The findings of this study extend the use of a standardized method for assessing HP in a heterogenous sample of adults with chronic pain. Although pain catastrophizing shares significant variance with pain-related anxiety, our findings suggest that either measure would be appropriate for use in future studies that incorporate the QST method of levels.

Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

2016-09-01

There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1980-08-01

An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

2016-01-01

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawhya R. El-Shereef

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinge LIU

Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

Effect of lethality on the extinction and on the error threshold of quasispecies.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejero, Hector; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

2010-02-21

In this paper the effect of lethality on error threshold and extinction has been studied in a population of error-prone self-replicating molecules. For given lethality and a simple fitness landscape, three dynamic regimes can be obtained: quasispecies, error catastrophe, and extinction. Using a simple model in which molecules are classified as master, lethal and non-lethal mutants, it is possible to obtain the mutation rates of the transitions between the three regimes analytically. The numerical resolution of the extended model, in which molecules are classified depending on their Hamming distance to the master sequence, confirms the results obtained in the simple model and shows how an error catastrophe regime changes when lethality is taken in account. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High frequency migraine is associated with lower acute pain sensitivity and abnormal insula activity related to migraine pain intensity, attack frequency, and pain catastrophizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vani A Mathur

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Migraine is a pain disorder associated with abnormal brain structure and function, yet the effect of migraine on acute pain processing remains unclear. It also remains unclear whether altered pain-related brain responses and related structural changes are associated with clinical migraine characteristics. Using fMRI and three levels of thermal stimuli (non-painful, mildly painful, and moderately painful, we compared whole-brain activity between 14 migraine patients and 14 matched controls. Although, there were no significant differences in pain thresholds and pre-scan pain ratings to mildly painful thermal stimuli, patients had aberrant suprathreshold nociceptive processing. Compared to controls, patients had reduced activity in pain modulatory regions including left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior parietal, and middle temporal cortices and, at a lower-threshold, greater activation in the right mid-insula to moderate pain versus mild pain. We also found that pain-related activity in the insula was associated with clinical variables in patients, including associations between: bilateral anterior insula and pain catastrophizing (PCS; bilateral anterior insula and contralateral posterior insula and migraine pain intensity; and bilateral posterior insula and migraine frequency at a lower-threshold. PCS and migraine pain intensity were also negatively associated with activity in midline regions including posterior cingulate and medial prefrontal cortices. Diffusion tensor imaging revealed a negative correlation between fractional anisotropy (a measure of white matter integrity; FA and migraine duration in the right mid-insula and a positive correlation between left mid-insula FA and PCS. In sum, while patients showed lower sensitivity to acute noxious stimuli, the neuroimaging findings suggest enhanced nociceptive processing and significantly disrupted modulatory networks, particularly involving the insula cortex, associated with indices of

Long-range pulselength scaling of 351nm laser damage thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Foltyn, S. R.; Jolin, L. J.

1986-12-01

In a series of experiments incorporating 351nm pulselength of 9, 26, 54, and 625ns, it was found that laser damage thresholds increased as (pulselength)/sup x/, and that the exponent averaged 0.36 and ranged, for different samples, from 0.23 to 0.48. Similar results were obtained when only catastrophic damage was considered. Samples included Al2O3/SiO2 in both AR and HR multilayers, HR's of Sc2O3/SiO2 and HfO2/SiO2, and Al-on-pyrex mirror; 9ns thresholds were between 0.2 to 5.6 J/sq cm. When these data were compared with a wide range of other results - for wavelengths from 0.25 to 10.6 microns and pulselengths down to 4ps - a remarkably consistent picture emerged. Damage thresholds, on average, increase approximately as the cube-root of pulselength from picoseconds to nearly a microsecond, and do so regardless of wavelength or material under test.

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serghei Margulescu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

2009-04-01

The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

OpenAIRE

Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

2009-01-01

Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

Catastrophic Disruption of Asteroids: First Simulations with Explicit Formation of Spinning Rigid and Semi-rigid Aggregates

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Patrick; Richardson, D. C.

2007-10-01

We have made major improvements in simulations of asteroid disruption by computing explicitly aggregate formations during the gravitational reaccumulation of small fragments, allowing us to obtain information on their spin and shape. First results will be presented taking as examples asteroid families that we reproduced successfully with previous less sophisticated simulations. In the last years, we have simulated successfully the formation of asteroid families using a SPH hydrocode to compute the fragmentation following the impact of a projectile on the parent body, and the N-body code pkdgrav to compute the mutual interactions of the fragments. We found that fragments generated by the disruption of a km-size asteroid can have large enough masses to be attracted by each other during their ejection. Consequently, many reaccumulations take place. Eventually most large fragments correspond to gravitational aggregates formed by reaccumulation of smaller ones. Moreover, formation of satellites occurs around the largest and other big remnants. In these previous simulations, when fragments reaccumulate, they merge into a single sphere whose mass is the sum of their masses. Thus, no information is obtained on the actual shape of the aggregates, their spin, ... For the first time, we have now simulated the disruption of a family parent body by computing explicitly the formation of aggregates, along with the above-mentioned properties. Once formed these aggregates can interact and/or collide with each other and break up during their evolution. We will present these first simulations and their possible implications on properties of asteroids generated by disruption. Results can for instance be compared with data provided by the Japanese space mission Hayabusa of the asteroid Itokawa, a body now understood to be a reaccumulated fragment from a larger parent body. Acknowledgments: PM and DCR acknowledge supports from the French Programme National de Planétologie and grants

Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel E Bialosky

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

2016-01-01

that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

Critical issues and experimental examination on sawtooth and disruption physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, K.; Itoh, S.; Fukuyama, A.; Tsuji, S.

1992-06-01

The catastrophic phenomena which are associated with the major disruption and sawtooth contain three key processes: (1) Sudden acceleration of the growth of the helical deformation, (2) Central electron temperature crash, and (3) Rearrangement of the plasma current. Based on the theoretical model that the magnetic stochasticity plays a key role in these processes, the critical issues and possible experimental tests are proposed. Present experimental observations would be sufficient to study the detailed sequences and causes. Though models may not be complete the comparison with experiments improves understandings. (author)

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciumas Cristina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

Prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, S Y; Chen, Z Y; Huang, D W; Tong, R H; Yan, W; Wei, Y N; Ma, T K; Zhang, M; Zhuang, G

2016-01-01

Disruption mitigation is essential for the next generation of tokamaks. The prediction of plasma disruption is the key to disruption mitigation. A neural network combining eight input signals has been developed to predict the density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. An optimized training method has been proposed which has improved the prediction performance. The network obtained has been tested on 64 disruption shots and 205 non-disruption shots. A successful alarm rate of 82.8% with a false alarm rate of 12.3% can be achieved at 4.8 ms prior to the current spike of the disruption. It indicates that more physical parameters than the current physical scaling should be considered for predicting the density limit. It was also found that the critical density for disruption can be predicted several tens of milliseconds in advance in most cases. Furthermore, if the network is used for real-time density feedback control, more than 95% of the density limit disruptions can be avoided by setting a proper threshold. (paper)

Study of runaway current generation following disruptions in KSTAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z Y; Kim, W C; Yu, Y W; England, A C; Yoo, J W; Hahn, S H; Yoon, S W; Lee, K D; Oh, Y K; Kwak, J G; Kwon, M

2013-01-01

The high fraction of runaway current conversion following disruptions has an important effect on the first wall for next-generation tokamaks. Because of the potentially severe consequences of a large full current runaway beam on the first wall in an unmitigated disruption, runaway suppression is given a high priority. The behavior of runaway currents both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 massive gas injection (MGI) shutdown experiments is investigated in the KSTAR tokamak. The experiments in KSTAR show that the toroidal magnetic field threshold, B T >2 T, for runaway generation is not absolute. A high fraction of runaway current conversion following spontaneous disruptions is observed at a much lower toroidal magnetic field of B T = 1.3 T. A dedicated fast valve for high-pressure gas injection with 39.7 bar is developed for the study of disruptions. A study of runaway current parameters shows that the conversion efficiency of pre-disruptive plasma currents into runaway current can reach over 80% both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 MGI shutdown experiments in KSTAR. (paper)

The Impact of Heterogeneity on Threshold-Limited Social Contagion, and on Crowd Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Karampourniotis, Panagiotis Dimitrios

studying the data from a global lending platform we discover that geographical proximity and cultural affinity are highly negatively correlated with levels of flatness of the world. Furthermore, we investigate the robustness of the flatness of the world against sudden catastrophic national events such as political disruptions, by removing countries (nodes) or connections (edges) between them.

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

2006-01-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2006-09-15

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

Precipitation thresholds for landslide occurrence near Seattle, Mukilteo, and Everett, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Scheevel, Caroline R.; Baum, Rex L.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Smith, Joel B.

2017-04-27

Shallow landslides along coastal bluffs frequently occur in the railway corridor between Seattle and Everett, Washington. These slides disrupt passenger rail service, both because of required track maintenance and because the railroad owner, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, does not allow passenger travel for 48 hours after a disruptive landslide. Sound Transit, which operates commuter trains in the corridor, is interested in a decision-making tool to help preemptively cancel passenger railway service in dangerous conditions and reallocate resources to alternative transportation.Statistical analysis showed that a majority of landslides along the Seattle-Everett Corridor are strongly correlated with antecedent rainfall, but that 21-37 percent of recorded landslide dates experienced less than 1 inch of precipitation in the 3 days preceding the landslide and less than 4 inches of rain in the 15 days prior to the preceding 3 days. We developed two empirical thresholds to identify precipitation conditions correlated with landslide occurrence. The two thresholds are defined as P3 = 2.16-0.44P15 and P3 = 2.16-0.22P32, where P3 is the cumulative precipitation in the 3 days prior to the considered date and P15 or P32 is the cumulative precipitation in the 15 days or 32 days prior to P3 (all measurements given in inches). The two thresholds, when compared to a previously developed threshold, quantitatively improve the prediction rate.We also investigated rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds to determine whether revision would improve identification of moderate-intensity, landslide-producing storms. New, optimized ID thresholds evaluate rainstorms lasting at least 12 hours and identify landslide-inducing storms that were typically missed by previously published ID thresholds. The main advantage of the ID thresholds appears when they are combined with recent-antecedent thresholds because rainfall conditions that exceed both threshold types are more likely to induce

Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

Science.gov (United States)

Harré, Michael S.

2013-02-01

Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

2012-02-01

Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

2014-08-01

To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

2012-05-01

The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Forecast for Artificial Muscle Tremor Behavior Based on Dynamic Additional Grey Catastrophe Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Fu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Recently, bio-inspired artificial muscles based on ionic polymers have shown a bright perspective in engineering and medical research, but the inherent tremor behavior can cause instability of output response. In this paper, dynamic additional grey catastrophe prediction (DAGCP is proposed to forecast the occurrence time of tremor behavior, providing adequate preparation time for the suppression of the chitosan-based artificial muscles. DAGCP constructs various dimensions of time subsequence models under different starting points based on the threshold of tremor occurrence times and peak-to-peak values in unit time. Next, the appropriate subsequence is selected according to grey correlation degree and prediction accuracy, then it is updated with the newly generated values to achieve a real-time forecast of forthcoming tremor time. Compared with conventional grey catastrophe prediction (GCP, the proposed method has the following advantages: (1 the degradation of prediction accuracy caused by the immobilization of original parameters is prevented; (2 the dynamic input, real-time update and gradual forecast of time sequence are incorporated into the model. The experiment results show that the novel DAGCP can predict forthcoming tremor time earlier and more accurately than the conventional GCP. The generation mechanism of tremor behavior is illustrated as well.

Cognitive Impairments in Fibromyalgia Syndrome: Associations With Positive and Negative Affect, Alexithymia, Pain Catastrophizing and Self-Esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Galvez-Sánchez, Carmen M; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A; Duschek, Stefan

2018-01-01

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a chronic condition characterized by widespread pain accompanied by symptoms like depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance and fatigue. In addition, affected patients frequently report cognitive disruption such as forgetfulness, concentration difficulties or mental slowness. Though cognitive deficits in FMS have been confirmed in various studies, not much is known about the mechanisms involved in their origin. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of affect-related variables to cognitive impairments in FMS. For this purpose, 67 female FMS patients and 32 healthy control subjects completed a battery of cognitive tests measuring processing speed, attention, visuospatial and verbal memory, cognitive flexibility and planning abilities. In addition, participants completed self-report questionnaires pertaining to positive and negative affect, alexithymia, pain catastrophizing and self-esteem. Clinical characteristics including pain severity, symptoms of depression and anxiety, insomnia and fatigue were also assessed. FMS patients showed markedly poorer performance than healthy controls in all of the cognitive domains assessed, in addition to greater levels of depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, and lower self-esteem and positive affect. In exploratory correlation analysis in the FMS sample, lower cognitive performance was associated with higher pain severity, depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, as well as lower self-esteem and positive affect. However, in regression analyses, pain, self-esteem, alexithymia, and pain catastrophizing explained the largest portion of the variance in performance. While interference effects of clinical pain in cognition have been previously described, the present findings suggest that affective factors also substantially contribute to the genesis of cognitive impairments. They support the notion that affective disturbances

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diebel, Martin

2017-01-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

2015-01-01

Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

Catastrophic events and older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

2010-12-01

The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

Disruption of the terrestrial plant ecosystem at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, western interior

Science.gov (United States)

Tschudy, R.H.; Pillmore, C.L.; Orth, C.J.; Gilmore, J.S.; Knight, J.D.

1984-01-01

The palynologically defined Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the western interior of North America occurs at the top of an iridium-rich clay layer. The boundary is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of certain pollen species, immediately followed by a pronounced, geologically brief change in the ratio of fern spores to angiosperm pollen. The occurrence of these changes at two widely separated sites implies continentwide disruption of the terrestrial ecosystem, probably caused by a major catastrophic event at the end of the period.

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gravesen, Jens

1983-01-01

It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

2017-09-01

To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

2018-02-01

We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

Paraboles et catastrophes

CERN Document Server

Thom, René

1983-01-01

René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

2018-02-21

Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.

2008-01-01

Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

Dynamical Evolution of the Debris Disk after a Satellite Catastrophic Disruption around Saturn

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyodo, Ryuki; Charnoz, Sébastien

2017-01-01

The hypothesis of the recent origin of Saturn’s rings and its midsized moons is actively debated. It was suggested that a proto-Rhea and a proto-Dione might have collided recently, giving birth to the modern system of midsized moons. It has also been suggested that the rapid viscous spreading of the debris may have implanted mass inside Saturn’s Roche limit, giving birth to its modern ring system. However, this scenario has only been investigated in a very simplified way for the moment. This paper investigates it in detail to assess its plausibility by using N -body simulations and analytical arguments. When the debris disk is dominated by its largest remnant, N -body simulations show that the system quickly reaccretes into a single satellite without significant spreading. On the other hand, if the disk is composed of small particles, analytical arguments suggest that the disk experiences dynamical evolutions in three steps. The disk starts significantly excited after the impact and collisional damping dominates over the viscous spreading. After the system flattens, the system can become gravitationally unstable when particles are smaller than ∼100 m. However, the particles grow faster than spreading. Then, the system becomes gravitationally stable again and accretion continues at a slower pace, but spreading is inhibited. Therefore, the debris is expected to reaccrete into several large bodies. In conclusion, our results show that such a scenario may not form today’s ring system. In contrast, our results suggest that today’s midsized moons are likely reaccreted from such a catastrophic event.

Dynamical Evolution of the Debris Disk after a Satellite Catastrophic Disruption around Saturn

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hyodo, Ryuki [Earth-Life Science Institute/Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Tokyo (Japan); Charnoz, Sébastien [Institut de Physique du Globe, 75005 Paris (France)

2017-07-01

The hypothesis of the recent origin of Saturn’s rings and its midsized moons is actively debated. It was suggested that a proto-Rhea and a proto-Dione might have collided recently, giving birth to the modern system of midsized moons. It has also been suggested that the rapid viscous spreading of the debris may have implanted mass inside Saturn’s Roche limit, giving birth to its modern ring system. However, this scenario has only been investigated in a very simplified way for the moment. This paper investigates it in detail to assess its plausibility by using N -body simulations and analytical arguments. When the debris disk is dominated by its largest remnant, N -body simulations show that the system quickly reaccretes into a single satellite without significant spreading. On the other hand, if the disk is composed of small particles, analytical arguments suggest that the disk experiences dynamical evolutions in three steps. The disk starts significantly excited after the impact and collisional damping dominates over the viscous spreading. After the system flattens, the system can become gravitationally unstable when particles are smaller than ∼100 m. However, the particles grow faster than spreading. Then, the system becomes gravitationally stable again and accretion continues at a slower pace, but spreading is inhibited. Therefore, the debris is expected to reaccrete into several large bodies. In conclusion, our results show that such a scenario may not form today’s ring system. In contrast, our results suggest that today’s midsized moons are likely reaccreted from such a catastrophic event.

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Volodicheva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Cabrera, Brenda López

2006-01-01

After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

2004-05-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motoh, Tsujimura

2004-01-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

1992-07-01

In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

Science.gov (United States)

van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

1994-11-01

In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

OpenAIRE

Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

2011-01-01

Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

1979-01-01

Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

Bodily illusions disrupt tactile sensations.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Amour, Sarah; Pritchett, Lisa M; Harris, Laurence R

2015-02-01

To accurately interpret tactile information, the brain needs to have an accurate representation of the body to which to refer the sensations. Despite this, body representation has only recently been incorporated into the study of tactile perception. Here, we investigate whether distortions of body representation affect tactile sensations. We perceptually altered the length of the arm and the width of the waist using a tendon vibration illusion and measured spatial acuity and sensitivity. Surprisingly, we found reduction in both tactile acuity and sensitivity thresholds when the arm or waist was perceptually altered, which indicates a general disruption of low-level tactile processing. We postulate that the disruptive changes correspond to the preliminary stage as the body representation starts to change and may give new insights into sensory processing in people with long-term or sudden abnormal body representation such as are found in eating disorders or following amputation.

Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

2013-02-01

Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelby L Langer

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saloul, I.

2008-01-01

The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

2008-05-01

The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

CERN Document Server

Kent, A

2004-01-01

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

[Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

Science.gov (United States)

León, C Francisco Javier

2012-01-01

A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geneviève Chaput

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

Influence of Catastrophizing and Personality Traits on Recalled Ratings of Acute Pain Experience in Healthy Young Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Pallegama, Ranjith Wasantha; Ariyasinghe, Sajjiv; Perera, Eranthi Dinoka; Treede, Rolf-Detlef

2017-01-01

To investigate whether pain catastrophizing and personality traits bias recalled ratings of acute pain in an experimental tonic pain model. Fifty-six undergraduates (14 males) recruited from the University of Peradeniya (mean age 21.7 ± 0.8 SD years). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. They were subjected to two cold pressor tests (dominant and non-dominant hands) and pain threshold, maximum pain intensity, and pain tolerance were recorded. One-week later, the maximum pain intensities of both hands were recalled and percentage distortions in recalling were calculated. Based on a 180 s cutoff, two participants were considered pain-insensitive during the test and were excluded from the analysis. The maximum pain intensity was recalled with a moderate accuracy (Intraclass Correlation Coefficients = 0.68 for dominant and 0.59 for non-dominant hands). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that maximum pain intensity ( P  personality traits only neuroticism exhibited a weak positive association with the recalled ratings. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Influence of resonator length on catastrophic optical damage in high-power AlGaInP broad-area lasers

Science.gov (United States)

Bou Sanayeh, Marwan

2017-05-01

The increasing importance of extracting high optical power out of semiconductor lasers motivated several studies in catastrophic optical damage (COD) level improvement. In this study, the influence of the resonator length in high-power broad-area (BA) AlGaInP lasers on COD is presented. For the analyses, several 638 nm AlGaInP 60 μm BA lasers from the same wafer were used. Resonator lengths of 900, 1200, 1500, and 1800 μm were compared. In order to independently examine the effect of the resonator length on the maximum power reached by the lasers before COD (PCOD), the lasers used are uncoated and unmounted, and PCOD under pulsed mode was determined. It was found that higher output powers and eventually higher PCOD can be achieved using longer resonators; however, it was also found that this is mainly useful when working at high output powers far away from the laser threshold, since the threshold current and slope efficiency worsen when the resonator length increases.

Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

2014-10-01

To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

On the implications of thresholds for economic science and environmental policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aalbers, R.

1999-05-11

This thesis consists of four chapters on the topic of thresholds. Chapter 2 deals with the issue of a truly catastrophic threshold. Society has perfect information on both the location and the impact of crossing the threshold. The assumption is made that crossing the threshold will result in the destruction of all human utility on earth (which is not the same as the destruction of all human life on earth). On the basis of a simple neoclassical growth model the question is posed under what conditions society would like to cross the threshold, and hence, initiate a catastrophe. The trade-off for society is to have a relatively low consumption level for an infinite period of time, or to have a relatively high consumption level for a short period of time. Perhaps surprisingly, it turns out that the doomsday scenario may be optimal (in the sense of maximizing human utility). Chapter 3 extends the analysis of the second chapter by allowing society to spend resources either on consumption or on abatement. In chapter 4 the assumption of certainty of information about both the location and the impact of a threshold is relaxed. Instead it is assumed that a society has information - in the form of a probability density function - about both the location of the threshold and its impact. What then is the optimal strategy for that society? In addition, it will be analysed how society`s optimal strategy changes, if the uncertainty increases. We will see that if uncertainty about the impact of the threshold increases, society`s strategy will become more prudent. Moreover, it is argued that any form of cost-benefit analysis must - whenever thresholds cannot be excluded a priori from the analysis - necessarily be based on arbitrary, in the sense of non-empirically verifiable, assumptions about the shape of the damage function. Finally, the author examines the case in which society has not enough - quantitative or qualitative - information in order to obtain, or estimate, a

Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengwang Hao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

OpenAIRE

Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

2016-01-01

The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

Watershed safety and quality control by safety threshold method

Science.gov (United States)

Da-Wei Tsai, David; Mengjung Chou, Caroline; Ramaraj, Rameshprabu; Liu, Wen-Cheng; Honglay Chen, Paris

2014-05-01

Taiwan was warned as one of the most dangerous countries by IPCC and the World Bank. In such an exceptional and perilous island, we would like to launch the strategic research of land-use management on the catastrophe prevention and environmental protection. This study used the watershed management by "Safety Threshold Method" to restore and to prevent the disasters and pollution on island. For the deluge prevention, this study applied the restoration strategy to reduce total runoff which was equilibrium to 59.4% of the infiltration each year. For the sediment management, safety threshold management could reduce the sediment below the equilibrium of the natural sediment cycle. In the water quality issues, the best strategies exhibited the significant total load reductions of 10% in carbon (BOD5), 15% in nitrogen (nitrate) and 9% in phosphorus (TP). We found out the water quality could meet the BOD target by the 50% peak reduction with management. All the simulations demonstrated the safety threshold method was helpful to control the loadings within the safe range of disasters and environmental quality. Moreover, from the historical data of whole island, the past deforestation policy and the mistake economic projects were the prime culprits. Consequently, this study showed a practical method to manage both the disasters and pollution in a watershed scale by the land-use management.

An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

2018-04-01

A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2009-01-01

This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

2014-02-01

Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

Protocols of a catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stscherbak, J.

1988-01-01

In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

Cosmic Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, J. Craig

2014-08-01

Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

2015-08-25

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

Action spectrum for photochemical retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) disruption in an in vivo monkey model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jie; Sabarinathan, Ranjani; Bubel, Tracy; Williams, David R.; Hunter, Jennifer J.

2016-03-01

Observations of RPE disruption and autofluorescence (AF) photobleaching at light levels below the ANSI photochemical maximum permissible exposure (MPE) (Morgan et al., 2008) indicates a demand to modify future light safety standards to protect the retina from harm. To establish safe light exposures, we measured the visible light action spectrum for RPE disruption in an in vivo monkey model with fluorescence adaptive optics retinal imaging. Using this high resolution imaging modality can provide insight into the consequences of light on a cellular level and allow for longitudinal monitoring of retinal changes. The threshold retinal radiant exposures (RRE) for RPE disruption were determined for 4 wavelengths (460, 488, 544, and 594 nm). The anaesthetized macaque retina was exposed to a uniform 0.5° × 0.5° field of view (FOV). Imaging within a 2° × 2° FOV was performed before, immediately after and at 2 week intervals for 10 weeks. At each wavelength, multiple RREs were tested with 4 repetitions each to determine the threshold for RPE disruption. For qualitative analysis, RPE disruption is defined as any detectable change from the pre exposure condition in the cell mosaic in the exposed region relative to the corresponding mosaic in the immediately surrounding area. We have tested several metrics to evaluate the RPE images obtained before and after exposure. The measured action spectrum for photochemical RPE disruption has a shallower slope than the current ANSI photochemical MPE for the same conditions and suggests that longer wavelength light is more hazardous than other measurements would suggest.

MHD stability, operational limits and disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The present physics understandings of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability of tokamak plasmas, the threshold conditions for onset of MHD instability, and the resulting operational limits on attainable plasma pressure (beta limit) and density (density limit), and the consequences of plasma disruption and disruption related effects are reviewed and assessed in the context of their application to a future DT burning reactor prototype tokamak experiment such as ITER. The principal considerations covered within the MHD stability and beta limit assessments are (i) magnetostatic equilibrium, ideal MHD stability and the resulting ideal MHD beta limit; (ii) sawtooth oscillations and the coupling of sawtooth activity to other types of MHD instability; (iii) neoclassical island resistive tearing modes and the corresponding limits on beta and energy confinement; (iv) wall stabilization of ideal MHD instabilities and resistive wall instabilities; (v) mode locking effects of non-axisymmetric error fields; (vi) edge localized MHD instabilities (ELMs, etc.); and (vii) MHD instabilities and beta/pressure gradient limits in plasmas with actively modified current and magnetic shear profiles. The principal considerations covered within the density limit assessments are (i) empirical density limits; (ii) edge power balance/radiative density limits in ohmic and L-mode plasmas; and (iii) edge parameter related density limits in H-mode plasmas. The principal considerations covered in the disruption assessments are (i) disruption causes, frequency and MHD instability onset; (ii) disruption thermal and current quench characteristics; (iii) vertical instabilities (VDEs), both before and after disruption, and plasma and in-vessel halo currents; (iv) after disruption runaway electron formation, confinement and loss; (v) fast plasma shutdown (rapid externally initiated dissipation of plasma thermal and magnetic energies); (vi) means for disruption avoidance and disruption effect mitigation; and

Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boceno, Laurent

2012-01-01

With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilker, Frank M

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases are responsible for the extinction of a number of species. In conventional epidemic models, the transition from endemic population persistence to extirpation takes place gradually. However, if host demographics exhibits a strong Allee effect (AE) (population decline at low densities), extinction can occur abruptly in a catastrophic population crash. This might explain why species suddenly disappear even when they used to persist at high endemic population levels. Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation. The underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect. Since highly pathogenic parasites cause their own extinction but not that of their host, there can be another saddle-node bifurcation with the re-emergence of two endemic equilibria. The implications for control interventions are discussed, suggesting that effective management may be possible for ℛ(0)≫1.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guglielmi, A V

2015-01-01

In this review, general ideas and specific results from catastrophe theory and the theory of critical phenomena are applied to the analysis of strong earthquakes. Aspects given particular attention are the sharp rise in the fluctuation level, the increased reactivity of dynamical systems in the near-threshold region, and other anomalous phenomena similar to critical opalescence. Given the lack of a sufficiently complete theory of earthquakes, this appears to be a valid approach to the analysis of observations. The study performed brought out some nontrivial properties of a strong-earthquake source that manifest themselves both before and after the main rupture discontinuity forms at the mainshock. In the course of the analysis of the foreshocks and aftershocks, such concepts as the round-the-world seismic echo, the cumulative effect of converging surface waves on the epicentral zone, and global seismicity modulation by Earth's free oscillations are introduced. Further research in this field is likely to be interesting and promising. (methodological notes)

Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Guglielmi, A. V.

2015-04-01

In this review, general ideas and specific results from catastrophe theory and the theory of critical phenomena are applied to the analysis of strong earthquakes. Aspects given particular attention are the sharp rise in the fluctuation level, the increased reactivity of dynamical systems in the near-threshold region, and other anomalous phenomena similar to critical opalescence. Given the lack of a sufficiently complete theory of earthquakes, this appears to be a valid approach to the analysis of observations. The study performed brought out some nontrivial properties of a strong-earthquake source that manifest themselves both before and after the main rupture discontinuity forms at the mainshock. In the course of the analysis of the foreshocks and aftershocks, such concepts as the round-the-world seismic echo, the cumulative effect of converging surface waves on the epicentral zone, and global seismicity modulation by Earth's free oscillations are introduced. Further research in this field is likely to be interesting and promising.

Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

CERN Document Server

1994-01-01

Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

2017-03-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

2008-01-01

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth V. Iserson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Clune, Jeff

2017-01-01

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roby Velez

Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

Is heat pain detection threshold associated with the area of secondary hyperalgesia following brief thermal sensitization?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Morten Sejer; Wetterslev, Jørn; Pipper, Christian Bressen

2016-01-01

role in the development of secondary hyperalgesia; however, a possible association of secondary hyperalgesia following brief thermal sensitization and other heat pain models remains unknown. Our aim with this study is to investigate how close the heat pain detection threshold is associated...... with the size of the area of secondary hyperalgesia induced by the clinical heat pain model: Brief thermal sensitization. METHODS AND DESIGN: We aim to include 120 healthy participants. The participants will be tested on two separate study days with the following procedures: i) Brief thermal sensitization, ii......) heat pain detection threshold and iii) pain during thermal stimulation. Additionally, the participants will be tested with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaires. We conducted statistical simulations based on data from our previous study, to estimate...

Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert R Edwards

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

Study of the generation and suppression of runaway currents in provoked disruptions in J-TEXT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Z.Y., E-mail: zychen@mail.hust.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074 (China); Chen, Z.P., E-mail: zpchen@mail.hust.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074 (China); Zhang, Y.; Jin, W.; Fang, D.; Ba, W.G.; Wang, Z.J.; Zhang, M.; Yang, Z.J.; Ding, Y.H.; Zhuang, G. [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074 (China)

2012-05-14

Runaway currents following disruptions have an important effect on the first wall for the next generation tokamak. The behaviors of runaway currents following intentional provoked disruptions have been investigated in the J-TEXT tokamak. It is found that the runaway current generation following provoked disruptions depends on both the toroidal magnetic field and the plasma current. The conversion efficiency of pre-disruptive plasma currents into runaway currents is in the ranges of 30% to 60% in J-TEXT. The runaway currents can be avoided by the intensive gas puffing of H{sub 2} due to the low multiplication factor in J-TEXT. -- Highlights: ► The regime of runaway generation in disruptions in J-TEXT has been established. ► The magnetic field threshold for runaway current generation in disruptions is 2.2 T. ► The conversion efficiency of runaway current is in the ranges of 30% to 60%. ► The runaway currents can be avoided by the intensive gas puffing of H{sub 2}.

Study of the generation and suppression of runaway currents in provoked disruptions in J-TEXT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.Y.; Chen, Z.P.; Zhang, Y.; Jin, W.; Fang, D.; Ba, W.G.; Wang, Z.J.; Zhang, M.; Yang, Z.J.; Ding, Y.H.; Zhuang, G.

2012-01-01

Runaway currents following disruptions have an important effect on the first wall for the next generation tokamak. The behaviors of runaway currents following intentional provoked disruptions have been investigated in the J-TEXT tokamak. It is found that the runaway current generation following provoked disruptions depends on both the toroidal magnetic field and the plasma current. The conversion efficiency of pre-disruptive plasma currents into runaway currents is in the ranges of 30% to 60% in J-TEXT. The runaway currents can be avoided by the intensive gas puffing of H 2 due to the low multiplication factor in J-TEXT. -- Highlights: ► The regime of runaway generation in disruptions in J-TEXT has been established. ► The magnetic field threshold for runaway current generation in disruptions is 2.2 T. ► The conversion efficiency of runaway current is in the ranges of 30% to 60%. ► The runaway currents can be avoided by the intensive gas puffing of H 2 .

The critical catastrophe revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

2015-01-01

The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

1983-01-01

This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

Impact of Osteoarthritis on Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyoungyoung; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Dalho; Jung, Sun-Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung

2018-05-21

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of old age whose prevalence is increasing. This study explored the impact of OA on household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in Korea. We used data on 5,200 households from the Korea Health Panel Survey in 2013 and estimated annual living expenses and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Household CHE was defined when a household's total OOP health payments exceeded 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% of the household's capacity to pay. To compare the OOP payments of households with OA individuals and those without OA, OA households were matched 1:1 with households containing a member with other chronic disease such as neoplasm, hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, or osteoporosis. The impact of OA on CHE was determined by multivariable logistic analysis. A total of 1,289 households were included, and households with and without OA patients paid mean annual OOP payments of $2,789 and $2,607, respectively. The prevalence of household CHE at thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were higher in households with OA patients than in those without OA patients ( P < 0.001). The presence of OA patients in each household contributed significantly to CHE at thresholds of 10% (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.87), 20% (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66), and 30% (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78), but not of 40% (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57). The presence of OA patients in Korean households is significantly related to CHE. Policy makers should try to reduce OOP payments in households with OA patients.

Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

1986-01-01

This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

Disruption avoidance by means of electron cyclotron waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esposito, B; Granucci, G; Nowak, S; Lazzaro, E; Maraschek, M; Giannone, L; Gude, A; Igochine, V; McDermott, R; Poli, E; Reich, M; Sommer, F; Stober, J; Suttrop, W; Treutterer, W; Zohm, H

2011-01-01

Disruptions are very challenging to ITER operation as they may cause damage to plasma facing components due to direct plasma heating, forces on structural components due to halo and eddy currents and the production of runaway electrons. Electron cyclotron (EC) waves have been demonstrated as a tool for disruption avoidance by a large set of recent experiments performed in ASDEX Upgrade and FTU using various disruption types, plasma operating scenarios and power deposition locations. The technique is based on the stabilization of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes (mainly m/n = 2/1) through the localized injection of EC power on the resonant surface. This paper presents new results obtained in ASDEX Upgrade regarding stable operation above the Greenwald density achieved after avoidance of density limit disruptions by means of ECRH and suitable density feedback control (L-mode ohmic plasmas, I p = 0.6 MA, B t = 2.5 T) and NTM-driven disruptions at high-β limit delayed/avoided by means of both co-current drive (co-ECCD) and pure heating (ECRH) with power ≤1.7 MW (H-mode NBI-heated plasmas, P NBI ∼ 7.5 MW, I p = 1 MA, B t = 2.1 T, q 95 ∼ 3.6). The localized perpendicular injection of ECRH/ECCD onto a resonant surface leads to the delay and/or complete avoidance of disruptions. The experiments indicate the existence of a power threshold for mode stabilization to occur. An analysis of the MHD mode evolution using the generalized Rutherford equation coupled to the frequency and phase evolution equations shows that control of the modes is due to EC heating close to the resonant surface. The ECRH contribution (Δ' H term) is larger than the co-ECCD one in the initial and more important phase when the discharge is 'saved'. Future research and developments of the disruption avoidance technique are also discussed.

The ergodic divertor a way to prevent major disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vallet, J.C.; Poutchy, L.; Mohamed-Benkadda, M.S.; Edery, D.; Joffrin, E.; Lecoustey, P.; Pecquet, A.L.; Samain, A.; Talvard, M.

1991-01-01

The disruptions are one of the major obstacles to present day tokamaks extrapolation to fusion reactors. We have recently proposed a piloting discharge strategy on TORE SUPRA to prevent density limit disruptions. This strategy is based on the use of the Ergodic Divertor (ED). We have observed that the ED stabilizes the m=2 n=1 tearing mode and that in deuterium discharges limited by the outboard limiter it induces a fast decrease of the plasma density. The piloting strategy is taken in three steps: 1) the approach of the density limit is detected by a threshold on the MHD activity amplitude; 2) the gas puff is switched off; 3) the ED is turned on. Then the m=2 n=1 tearing mode is stabilized the density decreases and the disruption is avoided. This strategy has already been successully tested on about 20 specific deuterium shots with 2.5< q(a)<4.5 in which the density limit is approached by ramping up the density with gas puffing. In this paper, experimental data are reported and analyzed. First, the principle of the ED and the density limit disruption phenomenology are briefly recalled. Then the ED effect on plasma density, radiated power and MHD activity are analyzed, and the piloting strategy to prevent density limit disruptions is discussed

Tidal Disruption of Strengthless Rubble Piles: A Dimensional Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Joseph M.; Rettig, Terrence W.

1998-01-01

A relatively simple prescription for estimating the number of debris clumps (n) that form after a catastrophic tidal disruption event is presented. Following the breakup event, it is assumed that the individual debris particles follow keplerian orbits about the planet until the debris' gravitational contraction timescale (t(sub c)) becomes shorter than its orbital spreading timescale (t(sub s)). When the two timescales become comparable, self-gravity breaks up the debris train into n = L/D clumps, which is the debris length/diameter ratio at that instant. The clumps subsequently orbit the planet independent of each other. The predicted number of clumps n is in good agreement with more sophisticated N-body treatments of tidal breakup for parabolic encounters, and the dependence of n upon the progenitor's density as well as its orbit is also mapped out for hyperbolic encounters. These findings may be used to further constrain both the orbits and densities of the tidally disrupted bodies that struck Callisto and Ganymede. A cursory analysis shows that the Gomul and Gipul crater chains on Callisto, which have the greatest number of craters among the known chains, were formed by projectiles having comet-like densities estimated at rho(sub o) < 1 gm/cc.

Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

2003-08-01

Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

Scaling of the MHD perturbation amplitude required to trigger a disruption and predictions for ITER

Science.gov (United States)

de Vries, P. C.; Pautasso, G.; Nardon, E.; Cahyna, P.; Gerasimov, S.; Havlicek, J.; Hender, T. C.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Lehnen, M.; Maraschek, M.; Markovič, T.; Snipes, J. A.; the COMPASS Team; the ASDEX Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET

2016-02-01

The amplitude of locked instabilities, likely magnetic islands, seen as precursors to disruptions has been studied using data from the JET, ASDEX Upgrade and COMPASS tokamaks. It was found that the thermal quench, that often initiates the disruption, is triggered when the amplitude has reached a distinct level. This information can be used to determine thresholds for simple disruption prediction schemes. The measured amplitude in part depends on the distance of the perturbation to the measurement coils. Hence the threshold for the measured amplitude depends on the mode location (i.e. the rational q-surface) and thus indirectly on parameters such as the edge safety factor, q 95, and the internal inductance, li(3), that determine the shape of the q-profile. These dependencies can be used to set the disruption thresholds more precisely. For the ITER baseline scenario, with typically q 95  =  3.2, li(3)  =  0.9 and taking into account the position of the measurement coils on ITER, the maximum allowable measured locked mode amplitude normalized to engineering parameters was estimated to be a·B ML(r c)/I p  =  0.92 m mT/MA, or directly as a fraction edge poloidal magnetic field: B ML(r c)/B θ (a)  =  5 · 10-3. But these values decrease for operation at higher q 95 or lower li(3). The analysis found furthermore that the above empirical criterion to trigger a thermal quench is more consistent with a criterion derived with the concept of a critical island size, i.e. the thermal quench seemed to be triggered at a distinct island width.

Reliability and validity of a brief method to assess nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhudy, Jamie L; France, Christopher R

2011-07-01

The nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) is a physiological tool to study spinal nociception. However, NFR assessment can take several minutes and expose participants to repeated suprathreshold stimulations. The 4 studies reported here assessed the reliability and validity of a brief method to assess NFR threshold that uses a single ascending series of stimulations (Peak 1 NFR), by comparing it to a well-validated method that uses 3 ascending/descending staircases of stimulations (Staircase NFR). Correlations between the NFR definitions were high, were on par with test-retest correlations of Staircase NFR, and were not affected by participant sex or chronic pain status. Results also indicated the test-retest reliabilities for the 2 definitions were similar. Using larger stimulus increments (4 mAs) to assess Peak 1 NFR tended to result in higher NFR threshold estimates than using the Staircase NFR definition, whereas smaller stimulus increments (2 mAs) tended to result in lower NFR threshold estimates than the Staircase NFR definition. Neither NFR definition was correlated with anxiety, pain catastrophizing, or anxiety sensitivity. In sum, a single ascending series of electrical stimulations results in a reliable and valid estimate of NFR threshold. However, caution may be warranted when comparing NFR thresholds across studies that differ in the ascending stimulus increments. This brief method to assess NFR threshold is reliable and valid; therefore, it should be useful to clinical pain researchers interested in quickly assessing inter- and intra-individual differences in spinal nociceptive processes. Copyright © 2011 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threshold intensity factors as lower boundaries for crack propagation in ceramics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Per-Ole

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Slow crack growth can be described in a v (crack velocity versus KI (stress intensity factor diagram. Slow crack growth in ceramics is attributed to corrosion assisted stress at the crack tip or at any pre-existing defect in the ceramic. The combined effect of high stresses at the crack tip and the presence of water or body fluid molecules (reducing surface energy at the crack tip induces crack propagation, which eventually may result in fatigue. The presence of a threshold in the stress intensity factor, below which no crack propagation occurs, has been the subject of important research in the last years. The higher this threshold, the higher the reliability of the ceramic, and consequently the longer its lifetime. Methods We utilize the Irwin K-field displacement relation to deduce crack tip stress intensity factors from the near crack tip profile. Cracks are initiated by indentation impressions. The threshold stress intensity factor is determined as the time limit of the tip stress intensity when the residual stresses have (nearly disappeared. Results We determined the threshold stress intensity factors for most of the all ceramic materials presently important for dental restorations in Europe. Of special significance is the finding that alumina ceramic has a threshold limit nearly identical with that of zirconia. Conclusion The intention of the present paper is to stress the point that the threshold stress intensity factor represents a more intrinsic property for a given ceramic material than the widely used toughness (bend strength or fracture toughness, which refers only to fast crack growth. Considering two ceramics with identical threshold limits, although with different critical stress intensity limits, means that both ceramics have identical starting points for slow crack growth. Fast catastrophic crack growth leading to spontaneous fatigue, however, is different. This growth starts later in those ceramic materials

Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

2011-12-01

The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

2008-01-01

Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arecchi, F.T.

1992-01-01

Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Manrubia, Susanna C; Domingo, Esteban; Lázaro, Ester

2010-06-27

Since the introduction of the quasispecies and the error catastrophe concepts for molecular evolution by Eigen and their subsequent application to viral populations, increased mutagenesis has become a common strategy to cause the extinction of viral infectivity. Nevertheless, the high complexity of virus populations has shown that viral extinction can occur through several other pathways apart from crossing an error threshold. Increases in the mutation rate enhance the appearance of defective forms and promote the selection of mechanisms that are able to counteract the accelerated appearance of mutations. Current models of viral evolution take into account more realistic scenarios that consider compensatory and lethal mutations, a highly redundant genotype-to-phenotype map, rough fitness landscapes relating phenotype and fitness, and where phenotype is described as a set of interdependent traits. Further, viral populations cannot be understood without specifying the characteristics of the environment where they evolve and adapt. Altogether, it turns out that the pathways through which viral quasispecies go extinct are multiple and diverse.

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández, A; Fort, H

2009-01-01

Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

Wing pathology of white-nose syndrome in bats suggests life-threatening disruption of physiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryan, Paul M; Meteyer, Carol Uphoff; Boyles, Justin G; Blehert, David S

2010-11-11

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is causing unprecedented declines in several species of North American bats. The characteristic lesions of WNS are caused by the fungus Geomyces destructans, which erodes and replaces the living skin of bats while they hibernate. It is unknown how this infection kills the bats. We review here the unique physiological importance of wings to hibernating bats in relation to the damage caused by G. destructans and propose that mortality is caused by catastrophic disruption of wing-dependent physiological functions. Mechanisms of disease associated with G. destructans seem specific to hibernating bats and are most analogous to disease caused by chytrid fungus in amphibians.

Wing pathology of white-nose syndrome in bats suggests life-threatening disruption of physiology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boyles Justin G

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract White-nose syndrome (WNS is causing unprecedented declines in several species of North American bats. The characteristic lesions of WNS are caused by the fungus Geomyces destructans, which erodes and replaces the living skin of bats while they hibernate. It is unknown how this infection kills the bats. We review here the unique physiological importance of wings to hibernating bats in relation to the damage caused by G. destructans and propose that mortality is caused by catastrophic disruption of wing-dependent physiological functions. Mechanisms of disease associated with G. destructans seem specific to hibernating bats and are most analogous to disease caused by chytrid fungus in amphibians.

Wing pathology of white-nose syndrome in bats suggests life-threatening disruption of physiology

Science.gov (United States)

Cryan, Paul M.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Boyles, Justin G.; Blehert, David S.

2010-01-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is causing unprecedented declines in several species of North American bats. The characteristic lesions of WNS are caused by the fungus Geomyces destructans, which erodes and replaces the living skin of bats while they hibernate. It is unknown how this infection kills the bats. We review here the unique physiological importance of wings to hibernating bats in relation to the damage caused by G. destructans and propose that mortality is caused by catastrophic disruption of wing-dependent physiological functions. Mechanisms of disease associated with G. destructans seem specific to hibernating bats and are most analogous to disease caused by chytrid fungus in amphibians.

Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, H. A.

1981-01-01

A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

Science.gov (United States)

Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

2018-01-08

We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

Science.gov (United States)

Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

1986-03-01

Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

2015-11-01

Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

2017-11-01

to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $3.8 million (95% CI: $3.8 million-$3.8 million) and $75 million (95% CI: $50 million-$100 million) per country. If instead cash transfers were provided with a TB-sensitive approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB-related catastrophic costs in any of the 6 countries, and when increased enough to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs would require a budget between $298 million (95% CI: $219 million-$378 million) and $165,367 million (95% CI: $134,085 million-$196,425 million) per country. DR TB-related costs were catastrophic before and after TB-specific or TB-sensitive cash transfers in 1 out of 1 countries. Sensitivity analyses showed our findings to be robust to imputation of missing TB-related cost components, and use of 10% or 30% instead of 20% as the threshold for measuring catastrophic costs. Key limitations were using national average data and not considering other health and social benefits of cash transfers. A TB-sensitive cash transfer approach to increase all poor households' income may have broad benefits by reducing poverty, but is unlikely to be as effective or affordable for preventing TB catastrophic costs as a TB-specific cash transfer approach to defray TB-related costs only in poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis. Preventing DR TB-related catastrophic costs will require considerable additional investment whether a TB-sensitive or a TB-specific cash transfer approach is used.

Major disruptions, inverse cascades, and the Strauss equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montgomery, D.

1982-01-01

Current-carrying plasmas in a strong dc magnetic field are subject to violent disruptions above certain thresholds. At present difficult to verify, explanations are typically sought in terms of tearing modes. An alternative explanation is in terms of inverse magnetic helicity cascades, generated from a variety of possible sources of small-scale MHD turbulence. Strongly anisotropic MHD plasmas may be described by the Strauss equations. Indications of turbulent inverse cascade behavior for the Strauss equations are sought, in parallel with earlier examples from MHD and fluid mechanics

Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

2008-11-30

In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mwai

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

Science.gov (United States)

Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

2013-12-01

Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darnall BD

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

A statistical model describing combined irreversible electroporation and electroporation-induced blood-brain barrier disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharabi, Shirley; Kos, Bor; Last, David; Guez, David; Daniels, Dianne; Harnof, Sagi; Mardor, Yael; Miklavcic, Damijan

2016-03-01

Electroporation-based therapies such as electrochemotherapy (ECT) and irreversible electroporation (IRE) are emerging as promising tools for treatment of tumors. When applied to the brain, electroporation can also induce transient blood-brain-barrier (BBB) disruption in volumes extending beyond IRE, thus enabling efficient drug penetration. The main objective of this study was to develop a statistical model predicting cell death and BBB disruption induced by electroporation. This model can be used for individual treatment planning. Cell death and BBB disruption models were developed based on the Peleg-Fermi model in combination with numerical models of the electric field. The model calculates the electric field thresholds for cell kill and BBB disruption and describes the dependence on the number of treatment pulses. The model was validated using in vivo experimental data consisting of rats brains MRIs post electroporation treatments. Linear regression analysis confirmed that the model described the IRE and BBB disruption volumes as a function of treatment pulses number (r(2) = 0.79; p disruption, the ratio increased with the number of pulses. BBB disruption radii were on average 67% ± 11% larger than IRE volumes. The statistical model can be used to describe the dependence of treatment-effects on the number of pulses independent of the experimental setup.

The Dynamics of Catastrophic and Impoverishing Health Spending in Indonesia: How Well Does the Indonesian Health Care Financing System Perform?

Science.gov (United States)

Aji, Budi; Mohammed, Shafiu; Haque, Md Aminul; Allegri, Manuela De

2017-09-01

Our study examines the incidence and intensity of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Indonesia. A panel data set was used from 4 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Surveys 1993, 1997, 2000, and 2007. Catastrophic health expenditure was measured by calculating the ratio of out-of-pocket payments to household income. Then, we calculated poverty indicators as a measure of impoverishing spending in the health care financing system. Head count, overshoot, and mean positive overshoot for each given threshold in 2000 were lower than other surveyed periods; otherwise, fraction headcount in 2007 of households were the higher. Between 1993 and 2007, the percentage of households in poverty decreased, both in gross and net of health payments. However, in each year, the percentages of households in poverty using net health payments were higher than the gross. The estimates of poverty gap, normalized poverty gap, and normalized mean positive gap decreased across the survey periods. The health care financing system performance has shown positive evidence for financial protection offerings. A sound relationship between improvements of health care financing performance and the existing health reform demonstrated a mutual reinforcement, which should be maintained to promote equity and fairness in health care financing in Indonesia.

Can the Relationship Between Rapid Automatized Naming and Word Reading Be Explained by a Catastrophe? Empirical Evidence From Students With and Without Reading Difficulties.

Science.gov (United States)

Sideridis, Georgios D; Simos, Panagiotis; Mouzaki, Angeliki; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Georgiou, George K

2018-05-01

The purpose of the present study was to explain the moderating role of rapid automatized naming (RAN) in word reading with a cusp catastrophe model. We hypothesized that increases in RAN performance speed beyond a critical point would be associated with the disruption in word reading, consistent with a "generic shutdown" hypothesis. Participants were 587 elementary schoolchildren (Grades 2-4), among whom 87 had reading comprehension difficulties per the IQ-achievement discrepancy criterion. Data were analyzed via a cusp catastrophe model derived from the nonlinear dynamics systems theory. Results indicated that for children with reading comprehension difficulties, as naming speed falls below a critical level, the association between core reading processes (word recognition and decoding) becomes chaotic and unpredictable. However, after the significant common variance attributed to motivation, emotional, and internalizing symptoms measures from RAN scores was partialed out, its role as a bifurcation variable was no longer evident. Taken together, these findings suggest that RAN represents a salient cognitive measure that may be associated with psychoemotional processes that are, at least in part, responsible for unpredictable and chaotic word reading behavior among children with reading comprehension deficits.

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

LONG-TERM SD-OCT/SLO IMAGING OF NEURORETINA AND RETINAL PIGMENT EPITHELIUM AFTER SUB-THRESHOLD INFRARED LASER TREATMENT OF DRUSEN

Science.gov (United States)

MOJANA, FRANCESCA; BRAR, MANPREET; CHENG, LINGYUN; BARTSCH, DIRK-UWE G.; FREEMAN, WILLIAM R.

2012-01-01

PURPOSE To determine the long-term effect of sub-threshold diode laser treatment for drusen in patients with non-exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with spectral domain optical coherence tomography combined with simultaneous scanning laser ophthalmoscope (SD-OCT/SLO). METHODS 8 eyes of 4 consecutive AMD patients with bilateral drusen previously treated with sub-threshold diode laser were imaged with SD-OCT/SLO. Abnormalities in the outer retina layers reflectivity as seen with SD-OCT/SLO were retrospectively analyzed and compared with color fundus pictures and autofluorescence images (AF) acquired immediately before and after the laser treatment. RESULTS A focal discrete disruptions in the reflectivity of the outer retinal layers was noted in 29% of the laser lesions. The junction in between the inner and outer segment of the photoreceptor was more frequently affected, with associated focal damage of the outer nuclear layer. Defects of the RPE were occasionally detected. These changes did not correspond to threshold burns on color fundus photography, but corresponded to focal areas of increased AF in the majority of the cases. CONCLUSIONS Sub-threshold diode laser treatment causes long-term disruption of the retinal photoreceptor layer as analyzed by SD-OCT/SLO. The concept that sub-threshold laser treatment can achieve a selected RPE effect without damage to rods and cones may be flawed. PMID:21157398

Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey S. Kryukovsky

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

A unified approach of catastrophic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Nikolopoulos

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

1978-08-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

1978-01-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

2017-04-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

2012-07-01

Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

2017-07-01

To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leffer, T.N.

2013-01-01

The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

2017-01-01

Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chloe J. Taub

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

OpenAIRE

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-01

Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

An odor-specific threshold deficit implicates abnormal cAMP signaling in youths at clinical risk for psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamath, Vidyulata; Moberg, Paul J; Calkins, Monica E; Borgmann-Winter, Karin; Conroy, Catherine G; Gur, Raquel E; Kohler, Christian G; Turetsky, Bruce I

2012-07-01

While olfactory deficits have been reported in schizophrenia and youths at-risk for psychosis, few studies have linked these deficits to current pathophysiological models of the illness. There is evidence that disrupted cyclic adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate (cAMP) signaling may contribute to schizophrenia pathology. As cAMP mediates olfactory signal transduction, the degree to which this disruption could manifest in olfactory impairment was ascertained. Odor-detection thresholds to two odorants that differ in the degree to which they activate intracellular cAMP were assessed in clinical risk and low-risk participants. Birhinal assessments of odor-detection threshold sensitivity to lyral and citralva were acquired in youths experiencing prodromal symptoms (n=17) and controls at low risk for developing psychosis (n=15). Citralva and lyral are odorants that differ in cAMP activation; citralva is a strong cAMP activator and lyral is a weak cAMP activator. The overall group-by-odor interaction was statistically significant. At-risk youths showed significantly reduced odor detection thresholds for lyral, but showed intact detection thresholds for citralva. This odor-specific threshold deficit was uncorrelated with deficits in odor identification or discrimination, which were also present. ROC curve analysis revealed that olfactory performance correctly classified at-risk and low-risk youths with greater than 97% accuracy. This study extends prior findings of an odor-specific hyposmia implicating cAMP-mediated signal transduction in schizophrenia and unaffected first-degree relatives to include youths at clinical risk for developing the disorder. These results suggest that dysregulation of cAMP signaling may be present during the psychosis prodrome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

Menstrual Disruption with Exercise Is Not Linked to an Energy Availability Threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Lieberman, Jay L; DE Souza, Mary Jane; Wagstaff, David A; Williams, Nancy I

2018-03-01

Chronic reductions in energy availability (EA) suppress reproductive function. A particular calculation of EA quantifies the dietary energy remaining after exercise for all physiological functions. Reductions in luteinizing hormone pulse frequency have been demonstrated when EA using this calculation is <30 kcal·kg·fat-free mass (ffm)·d. We determined whether menstrual disturbances (MD) are induced when EA is <30 kcal·kg ffm·d. Thirty-five sedentary, ovulatory women age 18 to 24 yr (weight, 59.0 ± 0.8 kg; body mass index, 21.8 ± 0.4 kg·m) completed a diet and exercise intervention over three menstrual cycles. Participants were randomized to groups that varied in the magnitude of negative energy balance created by the combination of exercise and energy restriction. Menstrual disturbances were determined using daily urinary estrone-1-glucuronide and pregnanediol glucuronide, midcycle luteinizing hormone, and menstrual calendars. In a secondary analysis, we calculated EA from energy balance data and tested the association of EA with MD. A generalized linear mixed-effects model showed that the likelihood of a MD decreased by 9% for each unit increase in EA (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.98; P = 0.010). No specific value of EA emerged as a threshold below which MD were induced. When participants were partitioned into EA tertile groups (low EA, 23.4-34.1; n = 11; moderate EA, 34.9-40.7; n = 12, and high EA, 41.2-50.1; n = 12 [kcal·kg ffm·d]), estrone-1-glucuronide (P < 0.001), pregnanediol glucuronide (P < 0.001), and luteal phase length (P = 0.031) decreased significantly, independent of tertile. These findings do not support that a threshold of EA exists below which MD are induced but do suggest that MD increase linearly as EA decreases. Menstrual disturbances can likely be prevented by monitoring EA using a simplified assessment of metabolic status.

Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borisevich, Nikolaj

2001-01-01

The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

2014-10-01

The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Disruption of Conscious Access in Schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkovitch, Lucie; Dehaene, Stanislas; Gaillard, Raphaël

2017-11-01

Schizophrenia is a severe and complex psychiatric disorder resulting in delusions, hallucinations, and cognitive impairments. Across a variety of paradigms, an elevated threshold for conscious perception has been repeatedly observed in persons with schizophrenia. Remarkably, even subtle measures of subliminal processing appear to be preserved. We argue here that the dissociation between impaired conscious access and intact unconscious processing may be due to a specific disruption of top-down attentional amplification. This proposal is compatible with the neurophysiological disturbances observed in schizophrenia, including dysconnectivity, abnormal neural oscillations, and glutamatergic and cholinergic dysregulation. Therefore, placing impaired conscious access as a central feature of schizophrenia can help researchers develop a coherent and parsimonious pathophysiological framework of the disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

2013-01-01

Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Povyakalo, A.A.

2000-01-01

The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W. Grant

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-05-01

Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

Science.gov (United States)

Voight, Barry

1990-12-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

1I/‘Oumuamua as a Tidal Disruption Fragment from a Binary Star System

Science.gov (United States)

Ćuk, Matija

2018-01-01

1I/‘Oumuamua is the first known interstellar small body, probably being only about 100 m in size. Against expectations based on comets, ‘Oumuamua does not show any activity and has a very elongated figure, and it also exhibits undamped rotational tumbling. In contrast, ‘Oumuamua’s trajectory indicates that it was moving with the local stars, as expected from a low-velocity ejection from a relatively nearby system. Here, I assume that ‘Oumuamua is typical of 100 m interstellar objects and speculate on its origins. I find that giant planets are relatively inefficient at ejecting small bodies from inner solar systems of main-sequence stars, and that binary systems offer a much better opportunity for ejections of non-volatile bodies. I also conclude that ‘Oumuamua is not a member of a collisional population, which could explain its dramatic difference from small asteroids. I observe that 100 m small bodies are expected to carry little mass in realistic collisional populations and that occasional events, when whole planets are disrupted in catastrophic encounters, may dominate the interstellar population of 100 m fragments. Unlike the Sun or Jupiter, red dwarf stars are very dense and are capable of thoroughly tidally disrupting terrestrial planets. I conclude that ‘Oumuamua may have originated as a fragment from a planet that was tidally disrupted and then ejected by a dense member of a binary system, which could explain its peculiarities.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

OpenAIRE

Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weir, D.

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

Reverse Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Czapliński

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2017-07-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.

1996-03-01

The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

1989-01-01

Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

Investigating Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundgaard, Stine Schmieg; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

This book shares knowledge collected from 2015 and onward within the Consortium for Digital Disruption anchored at Aalborg University (www.dd.aau.dk). Evidenced by this publication, the field of disruptive innovation research has gone through several stages of operationalizing the theory. In recent...... years, researchers are increasingly looking back towards the origins of the theory in attempts to cure it from its most obvious flaws. This is especially true for the use of the theory in making predictions about future disruptions. In order to continue to develop a valuable theory of disruption, we...... find it useful to first review what the theory of disruptive innovation initially was, how it has developed, and where we are now. A cross section of disruptive innovation literature has been reviewed in order to form a general foundation from which we might better understand the changing world...

What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

Science.gov (United States)

Etiaba, Enyi; Onwujekwe, Obinna; Torpey, Kwasi; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Chiegil, Robert

2016-01-01

A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services. An exit survey of adults (18+years) attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra). In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES) and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE) in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits) as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively. The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (ptravel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable and high cost burden of ART services. Full inclusion of ART services within the benefit package of the National Health Insurance Scheme should be considered.

Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

2012-01-01

In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

Rainfall thresholds and susceptibility mapping for shallow landslides and debris flows in Scotland

Science.gov (United States)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dijkstra, Tom; Dixon, Neil

2017-04-01

Shallow translational slides and debris flows (hereafter 'landslides') pose a significant threat to life and cause significant annual economic impacts (e.g. by damage and disruption of infrastructure). The focus of this research is on the definition of objective rainfall thresholds using a weather radar system and landslide susceptibility mapping. In the study area Scotland, an inventory of 75 known landslides was used for the period 2003 to 2016. First, the effect of using different rain records (i.e. time series length) on two threshold selection techniques in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was evaluated. The results show that thresholds selected by 'Threat Score' (minimising false alarms) are sensitive to rain record length and which is not routinely considered, whereas thresholds selected using 'Optimal Point' (minimising failed alarms) are not; therefore these may be suited to establishing lower limit thresholds and be of interest to those developing early warning systems. Robust thresholds are found for combinations of normalised rain duration and accumulation at 1 and 12 day's antecedence respectively; these are normalised using the rainy-day normal and an equivalent measure for rain intensity. This research indicates that, in Scotland, rain accumulation provides a better indicator than rain intensity and that landslides may be generated by threshold conditions lower than previously thought. Second, a landslide susceptibility map is constructed using a cross-validated logistic regression model. A novel element of the approach is that landslide susceptibility is calculated for individual hillslope sections. The developed thresholds and susceptibility map are combined to assess potential hazards and impacts posed to the national highway network in Scotland.

Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

2012-09-01

To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tharani Loganathan

Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

Digital Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

det digitale domæne ud over det niveau, der kendetegner den nuværende debat, så præsenteres der ny viden om digital disruption. Som noget nyt udlægges Clayton Christens teori om disruptiv innovation med et særligt fokus på små organisationers mulighed for eksponentiel vækst. Specielt udfoldes...... forholdet mellem disruption og den stadig accelererende digitale udvikling i konturerne til ny teoridannelse om digital disruption. Bogens undertitel ”faretruende og fascinerende forandringer” peger på, at der er behov for en nuanceret debat om digital disruption i modsætning til den tone, der er slået an i...... videre kalder et ”disruption-råd”. Faktisk er rådet skrevet ind i 2016 regeringsgrundlaget for VLK-regeringen. Disruption af organisationer er ikke et nyt fænomen; men hastigheden, hvormed det sker, er stadig accelererende. Årsagen er den globale mega-trend: Digitalisering. Og derfor er specielt digital...

Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

OpenAIRE

Čavojec, Ján

2009-01-01

This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. A. Zolotarev

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roethlein, B.

1996-01-01

Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

2018-03-01

Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

2009-01-01

Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

Disruption?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2016-01-01

This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray......This is a short video on the theme disruption and entrepreneurship. It takes the form of an interview with John Murray...

Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

1990-01-01

Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2018-02-09

The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Gibbs

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene that include five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Kumar

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

2008-11-01

We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

Reversed Procrastination by Focal Disruption of Medial Frontal Cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, Ashwani; Diehl, Beate; Scott, Catherine; McEvoy, Andrew W; Nachev, Parashkev

2016-11-07

An enduring puzzle in the neuroscience of voluntary action is the origin of the remarkably wide dispersion of the reaction time distribution, an interval far greater than is explained by synaptic or signal transductive noise [1, 2]. That we are able to change our planned actions-a key criterion of volition [3]-so close to the time of their onset implies decision-making must reach deep into the execution of action itself [4-6]. It has been influentially suggested the reaction time distribution therefore reflects deliberate neural procrastination [7], giving alternative response tendencies sufficient time for fair competition in pursuing a decision threshold that determines which one is behaviorally manifest: a race model, where action selection and execution are closely interrelated [8-11]. Although the medial frontal cortex exhibits a sensitivity to reaction time on functional imaging that is consistent with such a mechanism [12-14], direct evidence from disruptive studies has hitherto been lacking. If movement-generating and movement-delaying neural substrates are closely co-localized here, a large-scale lesion will inevitably mask any acceleration, for the movement itself could be disrupted. Circumventing this problem, here we observed focal intracranial electrical disruption of the medial frontal wall in the context of the pre-surgical evaluation of two patients with epilepsy temporarily reversing such hypothesized procrastination. Effector-specific behavioral acceleration, time-locked to the period of electrical disruption, occurred exclusively at a specific locus at the ventral border of the pre-supplementary motor area. A cardinal prediction of race models of voluntary action is thereby substantiated in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

DISRUPTION OF CONDITIONED REWARD ASSOCIATION BY TYPICAL AND ATYPICAL ANTIPSYCHOTICS

Science.gov (United States)

Danna, C.L.; Elmer, G.I.

2013-01-01

Antipsychotic drugs are broadly classified into typical and atypical compounds; they vary in their pharmacological profile however a common component is their antagonist effects at the D2 dopamine receptors (DRD2). Unfortunately, diminished DRD2 activation is generally thought to be associated with the severity of neuroleptic-induced anhedonia. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the atypical antipsychotic olanzapine and typical antipsychotic haloperidol in a paradigm that reflects the learned transfer of incentive motivational properties to previously neutral stimuli, namely autoshaping. In order to provide a dosing comparison to a therapeutically relevant endpoint, both drugs were tested against amphetamine-induced disruption of prepulse inhibition as well. In the autoshaping task, rats were exposed to repeated pairings of stimuli that were differentially predictive of reward delivery. Conditioned approach to the reward predictive cue (sign-tracking) and to the reward (goal-tracking) increased during repeated pairings in the vehicle treated rats. Haloperidol and olanzapine completely abolished this behavior at relatively low doses (100 μg/kg). This same dose was the threshold dose for each drug to antagonize the sensorimotor gating deficits produced by amphetamine. At lower doses (3–30 μg/kg) both drugs produced a dose-dependent decrease in conditioned approach to the reward predictive cue. There was no difference between drugs at this dose range which indicates that olanzapine disrupts autoshaping at a significantly lower proposed DRD2 receptor occupancy. Interestingly, neither drug disrupted conditioned approach to the reward at the same dose range that disrupted conditioned approach to the reward predictive cue. Thus, haloperidol and olanzapine, at doses well below what is considered therapeutically relevant, disrupts the attribution of incentive motivational value to previously neutral cues. Drug effects on this dimension of reward

Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

2017-08-29

The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

OpenAIRE

Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

2013-01-01

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

2004-01-01

This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-12-01

Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatovich, V.K.

2004-01-01

The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamara J Somers

2008-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

Defending the Pittsburgh Waterways Against Catastrophic Disruption

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

by the Hannibal L/D. Along the Allegheny River our AOI is bounded by the Allegheny L/D 5. Along the Monongahela River our AOI is bounded by the...22  Figure 9.  Dams segment the river into pools, which are numbered. Locks enable transit between pools. The Hannibal L/D and the Pike Island...AOI, listed in the table to the right. Along the Ohio River our AOI is bounded by the Hannibal L/D. Along the Allegheny River our AOI is bounded by

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

2009-01-01

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

2002-03-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

2002-01-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Self-Efficacy for Pain Communication Moderates the Relation Between Ambivalence Over Emotional Expression and Pain Catastrophizing Among Patients With Osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Denburg, Alyssa N; Shelby, Rebecca A; Caldwell, David S; O'Sullivan, Madeline L; Keefe, Francis J

2018-04-06

Pain catastrophizing (ie, the tendency to focus on and magnify pain sensations and feel helpless in the face of pain) is one of the most important and consistent psychological predictors of the pain experience. The present study examined, in 60 patients with osteoarthritis pain who were married or partnered: 1) the degree to which ambivalence over emotional expression and negative network orientation were associated with pain catastrophizing, and 2) whether self-efficacy for pain communication moderated these relations. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant main effect for the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing; as ambivalence over emotional expression increased, the degree of pain catastrophizing increased. In addition, the interaction between ambivalence over emotional expression and self-efficacy for pain communication was significant, such that as self-efficacy for pain communication increased, the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing became weaker. Negative network orientation was not significantly associated with pain catastrophizing. Findings suggest that higher levels of self-efficacy for pain communication may help weaken the effects of ambivalence over emotional expression on pain catastrophizing. In light of these results, patients may benefit from interventions that target pain communication processes and emotion regulation. This article examines interpersonal processes involved in pain catastrophizing. This study has the potential to lead to better understanding of maladaptive pain coping strategies and possibly better prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

1997-01-01

Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-01-01

Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

Threshold quantum cryptography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokunaga, Yuuki; Okamoto, Tatsuaki; Imoto, Nobuyuki

2005-01-01

We present the concept of threshold collaborative unitary transformation or threshold quantum cryptography, which is a kind of quantum version of threshold cryptography. Threshold quantum cryptography states that classical shared secrets are distributed to several parties and a subset of them, whose number is greater than a threshold, collaborates to compute a quantum cryptographic function, while keeping each share secretly inside each party. The shared secrets are reusable if no cheating is detected. As a concrete example of this concept, we show a distributed protocol (with threshold) of conjugate coding

Disruptions in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesson, J.A.; Gill, R.D.; Hugon, M.

1989-01-01

In JET, both high density and low-q operation are limited by disruptions. The density limit disruptions are caused initially by impurity radiation. This causes a contraction of the plasma temperature profile and leads to an MHD unstable configuration. There is evidence of magnetic island formation resulting in minor disruptions. After several minor disruptions, a major disruption with a rapid energy quench occurs. This event takes place in two stages. In the first stage there is a loss of energy from the central region. In the second stage there is a more rapid drop to a very low temperature, apparently due to a dramatic increase in impurity radiation. The final current decay takes place in the resulting cold plasma. During the growth of the MHD instability the initially rotating mode is brought to rest. This mode locking is believed to be due to an electromagnetic interaction with the vacuum vessel and external magnetic field asymmetries. The low-q disruptions are remarkable for the precision with which they occur at q ψ = 2. These disruptions do not have extended precursors or minor disruptions. The instability grows and locks rapidly. The energy quench and current decay are generally similar to those of the density limit. (author). 43 refs, 35 figs, 3 tabs

Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanden Borre, T.

2001-01-01

This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

CERN Document Server

Perrineau, Aude

2015-01-01

Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

Digital disruption ?syndromes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Clair; Staib, Andrew

2017-05-18

The digital transformation of hospitals in Australia is occurring rapidly in order to facilitate innovation and improve efficiency. Rapid transformation can cause temporary disruption of hospital workflows and staff as processes are adapted to the new digital workflows. The aim of this paper is to outline various types of digital disruption and some strategies for effective management. A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a rapid, successful roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR). We observed this transformation and propose several digital disruption "syndromes" to assist with understanding and management during digital transformation: digital deceleration, digital transparency, digital hypervigilance, data discordance, digital churn and post-digital 'depression'. These 'syndromes' are defined and discussed in detail. Successful management of this temporary digital disruption is important to ensure a successful transition to a digital platform. What is known about this topic? Digital disruption is defined as the changes facilitated by digital technologies that occur at a pace and magnitude that disrupt established ways of value creation, social interactions, doing business and more generally our thinking. Increasing numbers of Australian hospitals are implementing digital solutions to replace traditional paper-based systems for patient care in order to create opportunities for improved care and efficiencies. Such large scale change has the potential to create transient disruption to workflows and staff. Managing this temporary disruption effectively is an important factor in the successful implementation of an EMR. What does this paper add? A large tertiary university hospital recently underwent a successful rapid roll-out of an integrated electronic medical record (EMR) to become Australia's largest digital hospital over a 3-week period. We observed and assisted with the management of several cultural, behavioural and

What Is the Economic Burden of Subsidized HIV/AIDS Treatment Services on Patients in Nigeria and Is This Burden Catastrophic to Households?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enyi Etiaba

Full Text Available A gap in knowledge exists regarding the economic burden on households of subsidized anti-retroviral treatment (ART programs in Nigeria. This is because patients also incur non-ART drug costs, which may constrain the delivery and utilisation of subsidized services.An exit survey of adults (18+years attending health facilities for HIV/AIDS treatment was conducted in three states in Nigeria (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom and Anambra. In the states, ART was fully subsidized but there were different payment modalities for other costs of treatment. Data was collected and analysed for direct and indirect costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities' during out-and in-patient visits. The levels of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE were computed and disaggregated by state, socio-economic status (SES and urban-rural location of the respondents. Catastrophic Health Expenditure (CHE in this study measures the number of respondents whose monthly ART-related household expenditure (for in-patient and out-patient visits as a proportion of monthly non-food expenditure was greater than 40% and 10% respectively.The average out-patient and in-patient direct costs were $5.49 and $122.10 respectively. Transportation cost was the highest non-medical cost and it was higher than most medical costs. The presence of co-morbidities contributed to household costs. All the costs were catastrophic to households at 10% and 40% thresholds in the three states, to varying degrees. The poorest SES quintile had the highest incidence of CHE for out-patient costs (p<0.0001. Rural dwellers incurred more CHE for all categories of costs compared to urban dwellers, but the costs were statistically significant for only outpatient costs.ART subsidization is not enough to eliminate economic burden of treatment on HIV patients. Service decentralization to reduce travel costs, and subsidy on other components of HIV treatment services should be introduced to eliminate the persisting inequitable

Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

2015-12-01

Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

2001-01-01

The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

2012-07-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

Science.gov (United States)

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

2016-11-07

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

2014-04-01

The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2016-11-14

First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Application of catastrophe theory to a point model for bumpy torus with neoclassical non-resonant electrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Punjabi, A; Vahala, G [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (USA). Dept. of Physics

1983-12-01

The point model for the toroidal core plasma in the ELMO Bumpy Torus (with neoclassical non-resonant electrons) is examined in the light of catastrophe theory. Even though the point model equations do not constitute a gradient dynamic system, the equilibrium surfaces are similar to those of the canonical cusp catastrophe. The point model is then extended to incorporate ion cyclotron resonance heating. A detailed parametric study of the equilibria is presented. Further, the nonlinear time evolution of these equilibria is studied, and it is observed that the point model obeys the delay convention (and hence hysteresis) and shows catastrophes at the fold edges of the equilibrium surfaces. Tentative applications are made to experimental results.

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Heat pain detection threshold is associated with the area of secondary hyperalgesia following brief thermal sensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Morten Sejer; Wetterslev, Jørn; Pipper, Christian Bressen

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The area of secondary hyperalgesia following brief thermal sensitization (BTS) of the skin and heat pain detection thresholds (HPDT) may both have predictive abilities in regards to pain sensitivity and clinical pain states. The association between HPDT and secondary hyperalgesia......, however, remains unsettled, and the dissimilarities in physiologic properties suggest that they may represent 2 distinctively different pain entities. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between HPDT and BTS-induced secondary hyperalgesia. METHODS: A sample of 121 healthy male...... participants was included and tested on 2 separate study days with BTS (45°C, 3 minutes), HPDT, and pain during thermal stimulation (45°C, 1 minute). Areas of secondary hyperalgesia were quantified after monofilament pinprick stimulation. The pain catastrophizing scale (PCS) and hospital anxiety and depression...

Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

Disruptions in Tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondeson, A.

1987-01-01

This paper discusses major and minor disruptions in Tokamaks. A number of models and numerical simulations of disruptions based on resistive MHD are reviewed. A discussion is given of how disruptive current profiles are correlated with the experimentally known operational limits in density and current. It is argued that the q a =2 limit is connected with stabilization of the m=2/n=1 tearing mode for a approx.< 2.7 by resistive walls and mode rotation. Experimental and theoretical observations indicate that major disruptions usually occur in at least two phases, first a 'predisruption', or loss of confinement in the region 1 < q < 2, leaving the q approx.= 1 region almost unaffected, followed by a final disruption of the central part, interpreted here as a toroidal n = 1 external kink mode. (author)

Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burns LC

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-01

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Hejduk, M. D.

2016-01-01

Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.E. García-Ramos

2014-09-01

Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education

1978-07-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

1978-01-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Wound Disruption Following Colorectal Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Moghadamyeghaneh, Zhobin; Hanna, Mark H; Carmichael, Joseph C; Mills, Steven; Pigazzi, Alessio; Nguyen, Ninh T; Stamos, Michael J

2015-12-01

Postoperative wound disruption is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We sought to identify the risk factors and outcomes of wound disruption following colorectal resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database was used to examine the clinical data of patients who underwent colorectal resection from 2005 to 2013. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors of wound disruption. We sampled a total of 164,297 patients who underwent colorectal resection. Of these, 2073 (1.3 %) had wound disruption. Patients with wound disruption had significantly higher mortality (5.1 vs. 1.9 %, AOR: 1.46, P = 0.01). The highest risk of wound disruption was seen in patients with wound infection (4.8 vs. 0.9 %, AOR: 4.11, P disruption such as chronic steroid use (AOR: 1.71, P disruption compared to open surgery (AOR: 0.61, P disruption occurs in 1.3 % of colorectal resections, and it correlates with mortality of patients. Wound infection is the strongest predictor of wound disruption. Chronic steroid use, obesity, severe COPD, prolonged operation, non-elective admission, and serum albumin level are strongly associated with wound disruption. Utilization of the laparoscopic approach may decrease the risk of wound disruption when possible.

An odor-specific threshold deficit implicates abnormal intracellular cyclic AMP signaling in schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Turetsky, Bruce I; Moberg, Paul J

2009-02-01

Although olfactory deficits are common in schizophrenia, their underlying pathophysiology remains unknown. Recent evidence has suggested that cAMP signaling may be disrupted in schizophrenia. Since cAMP mediates signal transduction in olfactory receptor neurons, this could contribute to the etiology of observed olfactory deficits. This study was designed to test this hypothesis by determining odor detection threshold sensitivities to two odorants that differ in their relative activations of this intracellular cAMP signaling cascade. Thirty schizophrenia patients, 25 healthy comparison subjects, and 19 unaffected first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients were studied. Odor detection threshold sensitivities were measured for the two odorants citralva and lyral. Although both have fruity/floral scents, citralva strongly activates adenylyl cyclase to increase cAMP levels, while lyral is a very weak activator of adenylyl cyclase. There was a significant group-by-odor interaction. Both schizophrenia patients and unaffected first-degree relatives were impaired in their ability to detect lyral versus citralva. Comparison subjects were equally sensitive to both odorants. This selective deficit could not be explained by differences in age, sex, smoking, clinical symptom profile, or medication use. This study establishes the presence of an odor-specific hyposmia that may denote a disruption of cAMP-mediated signal transduction in schizophrenia. The presence of a parallel deficit in the patients' unaffected first-degree relatives suggests that this deficit is genetically mediated. Although additional physiological studies are needed to confirm the underlying mechanism, these results offer strong inferential support for the hypothesis that cAMP signaling is dysregulated in schizophrenia.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles D Brummitt

Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

A path forward in the debate over health impacts of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Zoeller, R Thomas; Bergman, Åke; Becher, Georg; Bjerregaard, Poul; Bornman, Riana; Brandt, Ingvar; Iguchi, Taisen; Jobling, Susan; Kidd, Karen A; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Toppari, Jorma; Vandenberg, Laura N

2014-12-22

Several recent publications reflect debate on the issue of "endocrine disrupting chemicals" (EDCs), indicating that two seemingly mutually exclusive perspectives are being articulated separately and independently. Considering this, a group of scientists with expertise in basic science, medicine and risk assessment reviewed the various aspects of the debate to identify the most significant areas of dispute and to propose a path forward. We identified four areas of debate. The first is about the definitions for terms such as "endocrine disrupting chemical", "adverse effects", and "endocrine system". The second is focused on elements of hormone action including "potency", "endpoints", "timing", "dose" and "thresholds". The third addresses the information needed to establish sufficient evidence of harm. Finally, the fourth focuses on the need to develop and the characteristics of transparent, systematic methods to review the EDC literature. Herein we identify areas of general consensus and propose resolutions for these four areas that would allow the field to move beyond the current and, in our opinion, ineffective debate.

Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

2017-01-18

Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

A potential disruptive technology in vaccine development: gene-based vaccines and their application to infectious diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaslow, David C

2004-10-01

Vaccine development requires an amalgamation of disparate disciplines and has unique economic and regulatory drivers. Non-viral gene-based delivery systems, such as formulated plasmid DNA, are new and potentially disruptive technologies capable of providing 'cheaper, simpler, and more convenient-to-use' vaccines. Typically and somewhat ironically, disruptive technologies have poorer product performance, at least in the near-term, compared with the existing conventional technologies. Because successful product development requires that the product's performance must meet or exceed the efficacy threshold for a desired application, the appropriate selection of the initial product applications for a disruptive technology is critical for its successful evolution. In this regard, the near-term successes of gene-based vaccines will likely be for protection against bacterial toxins and acute viral and bacterial infections. Recent breakthroughs, however, herald increasing rather than languishing performance improvements in the efficacy of gene-based vaccines. Whether gene-based vaccines ultimately succeed in eliciting protective immunity in humans to persistent intracellular pathogens, such as HIV, malaria and tuberculosis, for which the conventional vaccine technologies have failed, remains to be determined. A success against any one of the persistent intracellular pathogens would be sufficient proof that gene-based vaccines represent a disruptive technology against which future vaccine technologies will be measured.

Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerell, P. E.

1998-01-01

Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

2010-01-01

The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-08

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

OpenAIRE

Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

2012-01-01

Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

Pain acceptance potentially mediates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgery outcomes among compensated lumbar fusion patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dance C

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cassie Dance,1 M. Scott DeBerard,1 Jessica Gundy Cuneo2 1Department of Psychology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Chronic low back pain is highly prevalent and often treatment recalcitrant condition, particularly among workers’ compensation patients. There is a need to identify psychological factors that may predispose such patients to pain chronicity. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether pain acceptance potentially mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgical outcomes in a sample of compensated lumbar fusion patients.Patients and methods: Patients insured with the Workers Compensation Fund of Utah and who were at least 2 years post-lumbar fusion surgery completed an outcome survey. These data were obtained from a prior retrospective-cohort study that administered measures of pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, mental and physical health, and disability.Results: Of the 101 patients who completed the outcome survey, 75.2% were male with a mean age of 42.42 years and predominantly identified as White (97.0%. The majority of the participants had a posterior lumbar interbody fusion surgery. Pain acceptance, including activity engagement and pain willingness, was significantly correlated with better physical health and mental health, and lower disability rates. Pain catastrophizing was inversely correlated with measures of pain acceptance (activity engagement r=–0.67, p<0.01, pain willingness r=–0.73, p<0.01 as well as the outcome measures: mental health, physical health, and disability. Pain acceptance significantly mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and both mental and physical health and also the relationship between pain catastrophizing and disability. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the relationship between pain catastrophizing and negative patient outcomes was potentially mediated

Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs)

Science.gov (United States)

... Center Pacientes y Cuidadores Hormones and Health The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) Steroid and Hormone ... Hormones and Health › Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) The Endocrine System Hormones Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) EDCs Myth vs. ...

Theory of threshold phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hategan, Cornel

2002-01-01

Theory of Threshold Phenomena in Quantum Scattering is developed in terms of Reduced Scattering Matrix. Relationships of different types of threshold anomalies both to nuclear reaction mechanisms and to nuclear reaction models are established. Magnitude of threshold effect is related to spectroscopic factor of zero-energy neutron state. The Theory of Threshold Phenomena, based on Reduced Scattering Matrix, does establish relationships between different types of threshold effects and nuclear reaction mechanisms: the cusp and non-resonant potential scattering, s-wave threshold anomaly and compound nucleus resonant scattering, p-wave anomaly and quasi-resonant scattering. A threshold anomaly related to resonant or quasi resonant scattering is enhanced provided the neutron threshold state has large spectroscopic amplitude. The Theory contains, as limit cases, Cusp Theories and also results of different nuclear reactions models as Charge Exchange, Weak Coupling, Bohr and Hauser-Feshbach models. (author)

Disruptions in the TFTR tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janos, A.; Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.; Batha, S.H.; Bell, M.G.; Bitter, M.; Budny, R.; Bush, C.E.; Efthimion, P.C.; Hawryluk, R.J.; Hill, K.W.; Hosea, J.; Jobes, F.C.; Johnson, D.W.; Levinton, F.; Mansfield, D.; Meade, D.; Medley, S.S.; Monticello, D.; Mueller, D.; Nagayama, Y.; Owens, D.K.; Park, H.; Park, W.; Post, D.E.; Schivell, J.; Strachan, J.D.; Taylor, G.; Ulrickson, M.; Goeler, S. von; Wilfrid, E.; Wong, K.L.; Yamada, M.; Young, K.M.; Zarnstorff, M.C.; Zweben, S.J.; Drake, J.F.; Kleva, R.G.; Fleischmann, H.H.

1993-03-01

For a successful reactor, it will be useful to predict the occurrence of disruptions and to understand disruption effects including how a plasma disrupts onto the wall and how reproducibly it does so. Studies of disruptions on TFTR at both high-β pol and high-density have shown that, in both types, a fast growing m/n=1/1 mode plays an important role. In highdensity disruptions, a newly observed fast m/n = 1/1 mode occurs early in the thermal decay phase. For the first time in TFTR q-profile measurements just prior to disruptions have been made. Experimental studies of heat deposition patterns on the first wall of TFTR due to disruptions have provided information on MHD phenomena prior to or during the disruption, how the energy is released to the wall, and the reproducibility of the heat loads from disruptions. This information is important in the design of future devices such as ITER. Several new processes of runaway electron generation are theoretically suggested and their application to TFTR and ITER is considered, together with a preliminary assessment of x-ray data from runaways generated during disruptions

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Science.gov (United States)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Particles near threshold

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Willenbrock, S.

1993-01-01

We propose returning to the definition of the width of a particle in terms of the pole in the particle's propagator. Away from thresholds, this definition of width is equivalent to the standard perturbative definition, up to next-to-leading order; however, near a threshold, the two definitions differ significantly. The width as defined by the pole position provides more information in the threshold region than the standard perturbative definition and, in contrast with the perturbative definition, does not vanish when a two-particle s-wave threshold is approached from below

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pampuro, V.I.

2001-01-01

The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

1996-01-01

A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

BINARY DISRUPTION BY MASSIVE BLACK HOLES: HYPERVELOCITY STARS, S STARS, AND TIDAL DISRUPTION EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bromley, Benjamin C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, 115 S 1400 E, Rm 201, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Kenyon, Scott J.; Geller, Margaret J.; Brown, Warren R., E-mail: bromley@physics.utah.edu, E-mail: skenyon@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: mgeller@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: wbrown@cfa.harvard.edu [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2012-04-20

We examine whether disrupted binary stars can fuel black hole growth. In this mechanism, tidal disruption produces a single hypervelocity star (HVS) ejected at high velocity and a former companion star bound to the black hole. After a cluster of bound stars forms, orbital diffusion allows the black hole to accrete stars by tidal disruption at a rate comparable to the capture rate. In the Milky Way, HVSs and the S star cluster imply similar rates of 10{sup -5} to 10{sup -3} yr{sup -1} for binary disruption. These rates are consistent with estimates for the tidal disruption rate in nearby galaxies and imply significant black hole growth from disrupted binaries on 10 Gyr timescales.

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Science.gov (United States)

Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Y.

2017-12-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

OpenAIRE

Calvet, Laura

2017-01-01

Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

Statistical analysis of JET disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanga, A.; Johnson, M.F.

1991-07-01

In the operation of JET and of any tokamak many discharges are terminated by a major disruption. The disruptive termination of a discharge is usually an unwanted event which may cause damage to the structure of the vessel. In a reactor disruptions are potentially a very serious problem, hence the importance of studying them and devising methods to avoid disruptions. Statistical information has been collected about the disruptions which have occurred at JET over a long span of operations. The analysis is focused on the operational aspects of the disruptions rather than on the underlining physics. (Author)

Disruptions in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiman, A.; Taylor, P.; Kellman, A.; LaHaye, R.

1996-01-01

We report on the results of a statistical analysis of the DIII-D disruption data base, and on an examination of a selected subset of the shots to determine the likely causes of disruptions. The statistical analysis focuses on the dependence of the disruption rate on key dimensionless parameters. We find that the disruption frequency is high at modest values of the parameters, and that it can be relatively low at operational limits. For example, the disruption frequency in an ITER relevant regime (β N /l i ∼ 2, 3 G > 0.6, where n G is the Greenwald limit) is approximately 23%. For this range of q, the disruption frequency rises only modestly to about 35% at the β limit, consistent with previous observations of a soft β limit for this q regime. For the range 6 95 G G < .9) in all q regimes we have studied. The location of the minimum moves to higher density with increasing q

Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haluza, I.

2004-01-01

Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

2013-01-01

This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2005-01-01

2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

2009-08-01

While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

Disruption model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, J.G.; Bronner, G.

1982-07-01

Calculations of disruption time and energy dissipation have been obtained by simulating the plasma as an electrical conducting loop that varies in resistivity, current density, major radius. The calculations provide results which are in good agreement with experimental observations. It is believed that this approach allows engineering designs for disruptions to be completed in large tokamaks such as INTOR or FED

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

Viewpoint: Sustainability of piñon-juniper ecosystems - A unifying perspective of soil erosion thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, David W.; Breshears, D.D.; Wilcox, B.P.; Allen, Craig D.

1998-01-01

Many pinon-juniper ecosystem in the western U.S. are subject to accelerated erosion while others are undergoing little or no erosion. Controversy has developed over whether invading or encroaching pinon and juniper species are inherently harmful to rangeland ecosystems. We developed a conceptual model of soil erosion in pinon-jumper ecosystems that is consistent with both sides of the controversy and suggests that the diverse perspectives on this issue arise from threshold effects operating under very different site conditions. Soil erosion rate can be viewed as a function of (1) site erosion potential (SEP), determined by climate, geomorphology and soil erodibility; and (2) ground cover. Site erosion potential and cove act synergistically to determine soil erosion rates, as evident even from simple USLE predictions of erosion. In pinon-juniper ecosystem with high SEP, the erosion rate is highly sensitive to ground cover and can cross a threshold so that erosion increases dramatically in response to a small decrease in cover. The sensitivity of erosion rate to SEP and cover can be visualized as a cusp catastrophe surface on which changes may occur rapidly and irreversibly. The mechanisms associated with a rapid shift from low to high erosion rate can be illustrated using percolation theory to incorporate spatial, temporal, and scale-dependent patterns of water storage capacity on a hillslope. Percolation theory demonstrates how hillslope runoff can undergo a threshold response to a minor change in storage capacity. Our conceptual model suggests that pinion and juniper contribute to accelerated erosion only under a limited range of site conditions which, however, may exist over large areas.

Internal disruption in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuvshinov, B.N.; Savrukhin, P.V.

1990-01-01

A review of results of experimental and theoretical investigations of internal disruption in tokamaks is given. Specific features of various types of saw-tooth oscillations are described and their classification is performed. Theoretical models of the process of development of internal disruption instability are discussed. Effect of internal disruption on parameters of plasma, confined in tokamak, is considered. Scalings of period and amplitude of saw-tooth oscillations, as well as version radius are presented. Different methods for stabilizing instability of internal disruption are described

Internal disruptions in tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuvshinov, B.N.; Savrukhin, P.V.

1990-01-01

Experimental and theoretical studies of the phenomenon of internal disruptions in tokamaks are reviewed. A classification scheme is introduced and the features of different types of sawtooth oscillations are described. A theoretical model for the development of the internal disruption instability is discussed. The effect of internal disruptions on the parameters of plasma confined in tokamaks is discussed. Scaling laws for the period and amplitude of sawtooth oscillations, as well as for the inversion radius, are presented. Different methods of stabilizing the internal disruption instability are described

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

2016-01-01

storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

1996-02-01

The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-01-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

2015-12-22

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

2017-02-06

Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

Plasma facing materials performance under ITER-relevant mitigated disruption photonic heat loads

Science.gov (United States)

Klimov, N. S.; Putrik, A. B.; Linke, J.; Pitts, R. A.; Zhitlukhin, A. M.; Kuprianov, I. B.; Spitsyn, A. V.; Ogorodnikova, O. V.; Podkovyrov, V. L.; Muzichenko, A. D.; Ivanov, B. V.; Sergeecheva, Ya. V.; Lesina, I. G.; Kovalenko, D. V.; Barsuk, V. A.; Danilina, N. A.; Bazylev, B. N.; Giniyatulin, R. N.

2015-08-01

PFMs (Plasma-facing materials: ITER grade stainless steel, beryllium, and ferritic-martensitic steels) as well as deposited erosion products of PFCs (Be-like, tungsten, and carbon based) were tested in QSPA under photonic heat loads relevant to those expected from photon radiation during disruptions mitigated by massive gas injection in ITER. Repeated pulses slightly above the melting threshold on the bulk materials eventually lead to a regular, "corrugated" surface, with hills and valleys spaced by 0.2-2 mm. The results indicate that hill growth (growth rate of ∼1 μm per pulse) and sample thinning in the valleys is a result of melt-layer redistribution. The measurements on the 316L(N)-IG indicate that the amount of tritium absorbed by the sample from the gas phase significantly increases with pulse number as well as the modified layer thickness. Repeated pulses significantly below the melting threshold on the deposited erosion products lead to a decrease of hydrogen isotopes trapped during the deposition of the eroded material.

Plasma facing materials performance under ITER-relevant mitigated disruption photonic heat loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klimov, N.S., E-mail: klimov@triniti.ru [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), Kashirskoye shosse 31, Moscow 115409 (Russian Federation); Putrik, A.B. [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Linke, J. [Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, EURATOM Association, Jülich D-52425 (Germany); Pitts, R.A. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, Karlsruhe 76021 (Germany); Zhitlukhin, A.M. [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Kuprianov, I.B. [Bochvar Institute, ul. Rogova, 5a, Moscow 123098 (Russian Federation); Spitsyn, A.V. [NRC «Kurchatov Institute», Akademika Kurchatova pl., 1, Moscow 123182 (Russian Federation); Ogorodnikova, O.V. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany); National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), Kashirskoye shosse 31, Moscow 115409 (Russian Federation); Podkovyrov, V.L.; Muzichenko, A.D. [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Ivanov, B.V.; Sergeecheva, Ya.V.; Lesina, I.G. [Bochvar Institute, ul. Rogova, 5a, Moscow 123098 (Russian Federation); Kovalenko, D.V.; Barsuk, V.A.; Danilina, N.A. [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Bazylev, B.N. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, Karlsruhe 76021 (Germany); Giniyatulin, R.N. [Efremov Institute, Doroga na Metallostroy, 3 bld., Metallostroy, Saint-Petersburg 196641 (Russian Federation)

2015-08-15

PFMs (Plasma-facing materials: ITER grade stainless steel, beryllium, and ferritic–martensitic steels) as well as deposited erosion products of PFCs (Be-like, tungsten, and carbon based) were tested in QSPA under photonic heat loads relevant to those expected from photon radiation during disruptions mitigated by massive gas injection in ITER. Repeated pulses slightly above the melting threshold on the bulk materials eventually lead to a regular, “corrugated” surface, with hills and valleys spaced by 0.2–2 mm. The results indicate that hill growth (growth rate of ∼1 μm per pulse) and sample thinning in the valleys is a result of melt-layer redistribution. The measurements on the 316L(N)-IG indicate that the amount of tritium absorbed by the sample from the gas phase significantly increases with pulse number as well as the modified layer thickness. Repeated pulses significantly below the melting threshold on the deposited erosion products lead to a decrease of hydrogen isotopes trapped during the deposition of the eroded material.

Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

2011-01-01

Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

Seven benzimidazole pesticides combined at sub-threshold levels induce micronuclei in vitro

Science.gov (United States)

Ermler, Sibylle; Scholze, Martin; Kortenkamp, Andreas

2013-01-01

Benzimidazoles act by disrupting microtubule polymerisation and are capable of inducing the formation of micronuclei. Considering the similarities in their mechanisms of action (inhibition of microtubule assembly by binding to the colchicine-binding site on tubulin monomers), combination effects according to the principles of concentration addition might occur. If so, it is to be expected that several benzimidazoles contribute to micronucleus formation even when each single one is present at or below threshold levels. This would have profound implications for risk assessment, but the idea has never been tested rigorously. To fill this gap, we analysed micronucleus frequencies for seven benzimidazoles, including the fungicide benomyl, its metabolite carbendazim, the anthelmintics albendazole, albendazole oxide, flubendazole, mebendazole and oxibendazole. Thiabendazole was also tested but was inactive. We used the cytochalasin-blocked micronucleus assay with CHO-K1 cells according to OECD guidelines, and employed an automated micronucleus scoring system based on image analysis to establish quantitative concentration–response relationships for the seven active benzimidazoles. Based on this information, we predicted additive combination effects for a mixture of the seven benzimidazoles by using the concepts of concentration addition and independent action. The observed effects of the mixture agreed very well with those predicted by concentration addition. Independent action underestimated the observed combined effects by a large margin. With a mixture that combined all benzimidazoles at their estimated threshold concentrations for micronucleus induction, micronucleus frequencies of ~15.5% were observed, correctly anticipated by concentration addition. On the basis of independent action, this mixture was expected to produce no effects. Our data provide convincing evidence that concentration addition is applicable to combinations of benzimidazoles that form micronuclei

Music effect on pain threshold evaluated with current perception threshold

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

AIM: Music relieves anxiety and psychotic tension. This effect of music is applied to surgical operation in the hospital and dental office. It is still unclear whether this music effect is only limited to the psychological aspect but not to the physical aspect or whether its music effect is influenced by the mood or emotion of audience. To elucidate these issues, we evaluated the music effect on pain threshold by current perception threshold (CPT) and profile of mood states (POMC) test. METHODS: Healthy 30 subjects (12 men, 18 women, 25-49 years old, mean age 34.9) were tested. (1)After POMC test, all subjects were evaluated pain threshold with CPT by Neurometer (Radionics, USA) under 6 conditions, silence, listening to the slow tempo classic music, nursery music, hard rock music, classic paino music and relaxation music with 30 seconds interval. (2)After Stroop color word test as the stresser, pain threshold was evaluated with CPT under 2 conditions, silence and listening to the slow tempo classic music. RESULTS: Under litening to the music, CPT sores increased, especially 2 000 Hz level related with compression, warm and pain sensation. Type of music, preference of music and stress also affected CPT score. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that the concentration on the music raise the pain threshold and that stress and mood influence the music effect on pain threshold.

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Symposium on disruptive instabilities at Garching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lackner, K.

1979-01-01

The phenomenon of disruptive instabilities was investigated with a special care at the IPP at Garching. After lectures and panel sessions it appears suitable, to subdivide the disruptive phenomena into four classes: 1. The internal disruption (the socalled saw-tooth oscillators). 2. the socalled reconnection disruptions. 3. The large disruptions. 4. The small disruptions. The four appearance forms of the phenomena are briefly explained. (GG) [de

Survey of disruption causes at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Vries, P.C.; Johnson, M.F.; Alper, B.; Hender, T.C.; Riccardo, V.; Buratti, P.; Koslowski, H.R.

2011-01-01

A survey has been carried out into the causes of all 2309 disruptions over the last decade of JET operations. The aim of this survey was to obtain a complete picture of all possible disruption causes, in order to devise better strategies to prevent or mitigate their impact. The analysis allows the effort to avoid or prevent JET disruptions to be more efficient and effective. As expected, a highly complex pattern of chain of events that led to disruptions emerged. It was found that the majority of disruptions had a technical root cause, for example due to control errors, or operator mistakes. These bring a random, non-physics, factor into the occurrence of disruptions and the disruption rate or disruptivity of a scenario may depend more on technical performance than on physics stability issues. The main root cause of JET disruptions was nevertheless due to neo-classical tearing modes that locked, closely followed in second place by disruptions due to human error. The development of more robust operational scenarios has reduced the JET disruption rate over the last decade from about 15% to below 4%. A fraction of all disruptions was caused by very fast, precursorless unpredictable events. The occurrence of these disruptions may set a lower limit of 0.4% to the disruption rate of JET. If one considers on top of that human error and all unforeseen failures of heating or control systems this lower limit may rise to 1.0% or 1.6%, respectively.

Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.

1979-01-01

Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

2004-01-01

Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

2017-02-01

Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonaki, Yotetsu

2016-01-01

The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Main, J.; Wunner, G.

1997-01-01

Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

Statistical analysis of disruptions in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Vries, P.C.; Johnson, M.F.; Segui, I.

2009-01-01

The disruption rate (the percentage of discharges that disrupt) in JET was found to drop steadily over the years. Recent campaigns (2005-2007) show a yearly averaged disruption rate of only 6% while from 1991 to 1995 this was often higher than 20%. Besides the disruption rate, the so-called disruptivity, or the likelihood of a disruption depending on the plasma parameters, has been determined. The disruptivity of plasmas was found to be significantly higher close to the three main operational boundaries for tokamaks; the low-q, high density and β-limit. The frequency at which JET operated close to the density-limit increased six fold over the last decade; however, only a small reduction in disruptivity was found. Similarly the disruptivity close to the low-q and β-limit was found to be unchanged. The most significant reduction in disruptivity was found far from the operational boundaries, leading to the conclusion that the improved disruption rate is due to a better technical capability of operating JET, instead of safer operations close to the physics limits. The statistics showed that a simple protection system was able to mitigate the forces of a large fraction of disruptions, although it has proved to be at present more difficult to ameliorate the heat flux.

S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muriel Erent

Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

Improvements in disruption prediction at ASDEX Upgrade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aledda, R., E-mail: raffaele.aledda@diee.unica.it; Cannas, B., E-mail: cannas@diee.unica.it; Fanni, A., E-mail: fanni@diee.unica.it; Pau, A., E-mail: alessandro.pau@diee.unica.it; Sias, G., E-mail: giuliana.sias@diee.unica.it

2015-10-15

Highlights: • A disruption prediction system for AUG, based on a logistic model, is designed. • The length of the disruptive phase is set for each disruption in the training set. • The model is tested on dataset different from that used during the training phase. • The generalization capability and the aging of the model have been tested. • The predictor performance is compared with the locked mode detector. - Abstract: In large-scale tokamaks disruptions have the potential to create serious damage to the facility. Hence disruptions must be avoided, but, when a disruption is unavoidable, minimizing its severity is mandatory. A reliable detection of a disruptive event is required to trigger proper mitigation actions. To this purpose machine learning methods have been widely studied to design disruption prediction systems at ASDEX Upgrade. The training phase of the proposed approaches is based on the availability of disrupted and non-disrupted discharges. In literature disruptive configurations were assumed appearing into the last 45 ms of each disruption. Even if the achieved results in terms of correct predictions were good, it has to be highlighted that the choice of such a fixed temporal window might have limited the prediction performance. In fact, it generates confusing information in cases of disruptions with disruptive phase different from 45 ms. The assessment of a specific disruptive phase for each disruptive discharge represents a relevant issue in understanding the disruptive events. In this paper, the Mahalanobis distance is applied to define a specific disruptive phase for each disruption, and a logistic regressor has been trained as disruption predictor. The results show that enhancements on the achieved performance on disruption prediction are possible by defining a specific disruptive phase for each disruption.

Improvements in disruption prediction at ASDEX Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aledda, R.; Cannas, B.; Fanni, A.; Pau, A.; Sias, G.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A disruption prediction system for AUG, based on a logistic model, is designed. • The length of the disruptive phase is set for each disruption in the training set. • The model is tested on dataset different from that used during the training phase. • The generalization capability and the aging of the model have been tested. • The predictor performance is compared with the locked mode detector. - Abstract: In large-scale tokamaks disruptions have the potential to create serious damage to the facility. Hence disruptions must be avoided, but, when a disruption is unavoidable, minimizing its severity is mandatory. A reliable detection of a disruptive event is required to trigger proper mitigation actions. To this purpose machine learning methods have been widely studied to design disruption prediction systems at ASDEX Upgrade. The training phase of the proposed approaches is based on the availability of disrupted and non-disrupted discharges. In literature disruptive configurations were assumed appearing into the last 45 ms of each disruption. Even if the achieved results in terms of correct predictions were good, it has to be highlighted that the choice of such a fixed temporal window might have limited the prediction performance. In fact, it generates confusing information in cases of disruptions with disruptive phase different from 45 ms. The assessment of a specific disruptive phase for each disruptive discharge represents a relevant issue in understanding the disruptive events. In this paper, the Mahalanobis distance is applied to define a specific disruptive phase for each disruption, and a logistic regressor has been trained as disruption predictor. The results show that enhancements on the achieved performance on disruption prediction are possible by defining a specific disruptive phase for each disruption.

A cusp catastrophe model of mid-long-term landslide evolution over low latitude highlands of China

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Yun; Cao, Jie; Hu, Jinming; Dai, Zhicheng

2013-04-01

Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution. According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution across a low-latitude highland area in China is obtained with the least squares method. Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity. Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls the time when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs. During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995, and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996. Since then, there have been frequent landslides in the low-latitude highland, with greater intensity. All these factors provide a scientific basis for formulating a contingency plan regarding landslide disasters.

Disruption prediction at JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, F.

1998-12-01

The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus). Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. O'Brien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as l i and q ψ with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of

The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2018-05-01

When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do romantic partners' responses to entry dyspareunia affect women's experience of pain? The roles of catastrophizing and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux, Ashley J; Bergeron, Sophie; Steben, Marc; Lambert, Bernard

2013-09-01

Entry dyspareunia is a sexual health concern which affects about 21% of women in the general population. Characterized by pain provoked during vaginal penetration, introital dyspareunia has been shown by controlled studies to have a negative impact on the psychological well-being, sexual function, sexual satisfaction, and quality of life of afflicted women. Many cognitive and affective variables may influence the experience of pain and associated psychosexual problems. However, the role of the partner's cognitive responses has been studied very little. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between partners' catastrophizing and their perceptions of women's self-efficacy at managing pain on one side and women's pain intensity, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction on the other. One hundred seventy-nine heterosexual couples (mean age for women = 31, SD = 10.0; mean age for men = 33, SD = 10.6) in which the woman suffered from entry dyspareunia participated in the study. Both partners completed quantitative measures. Women completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Painful Intercourse Self-Efficacy Scale. Men completed the significant-other versions of these measures. Dependent measures were women's responses to (i) the Pain Numeric Visual Analog Scale; (ii) the Female Sexual Function Index; and (iii) the Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction scale. Controlled for women's pain catastrophizing and self-efficacy, results indicate that higher levels of partner-perceived self-efficacy and lower levels of partner catastrophizing are associated with decreased pain intensity in women with entry dyspareunia, although only partner catastrophizing contributed unique variance. Partner-perceived self-efficacy and catastrophizing were not significantly associated with sexual function or satisfaction in women. The findings suggest that partners' cognitive responses may influence the experience of entry dyspareunia for women, pointing

Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author points out Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz (Witkacy, especially his theory of metaphysical feelings and their disappearance in mass society. Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz, known among the philosophy critics as neohumanistic catastrophist, has foreseen many categories which are typical for Habermas’ and Baudrillard’s writings. The neo-catastrophic mechanisms has a serious consequences for the condition of postmodern subject, the more so because the main part of the neocatastrophism is the strong conviction that there is no escape. The author, besides the main thesis mentioned above, highlights some common features between Baudillard’s and Habermas’ conceptions.

Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robeau, D.

2001-01-01

In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

A cross-cultural investigation of attachment style, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs, and symptom severity in irritable bowel syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerson, C D; Gerson, M-J; Chang, L; Corazziari, E S; Dumitrascu, D; Ghoshal, U C; Porcelli, P; Schmulson, M; Wang, W-A; Zali, M

2015-04-01

Little information exists regarding whether psychosocial variables in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) vary by geographic location. Adult attachment is an important psychological concept rooted in childhood relationship experience that has not been previously studied in IBS. Catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs have been described in IBS and may be affected by attachment. In this cross-cultural study, we determined: (i) whether attachment differs between IBS patients and controls, (ii) whether geographic location has a significant effect on attachment style, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs, and (iii) how all three variables correlate with IBS symptom severity. 463 IBS patients, with moderate to severe symptom scores, and 192 healthy controls completed validated questionnaires about attachment, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs and IBS-SSS in nine locations, USA (New York, Los Angeles), Mexico, Italy (Rome, Bari), Romania, Iran, India, and China. Attachment anxiety and avoidance scores were significantly higher in IBS patients than in controls (p < 0.001). This was particularly true for the fearful-avoidant attachment category, especially in China and Romania. Path analysis showed that attachment anxiety and avoidance had indirect effects on IBS-SSS through catastrophizing (p < 0.0001) and negative pain beliefs (p = 0.005). All three psychosocial measures varied significantly depending on location. In the IBS population studied, attachment style was significantly different in IBS compared to a control population. Geographic differences in attachment, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs were documented and their correlation with symptom severity and thus, research of psychosocial variables in IBS should take into account the location of the population studied. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Co-Formulants in Glyphosate-Based Herbicides Disrupt Aromatase Activity in Human Cells below Toxic Levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Defarge

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Pesticide formulations contain declared active ingredients and co-formulants presented as inert and confidential compounds. We tested the endocrine disruption of co-formulants in six glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH, the most used pesticides worldwide. All co-formulants and formulations were comparably cytotoxic well below the agricultural dilution of 1% (18–2000 times for co-formulants, 8–141 times for formulations, and not the declared active ingredient glyphosate (G alone. The endocrine-disrupting effects of all these compounds were measured on aromatase activity, a key enzyme in the balance of sex hormones, below the toxicity threshold. Aromatase activity was decreased both by the co-formulants alone (polyethoxylated tallow amine—POEA and alkyl polyglucoside—APG and by the formulations, from concentrations 800 times lower than the agricultural dilutions; while G exerted an effect only at 1/3 of the agricultural dilution. It was demonstrated for the first time that endocrine disruption by GBH could not only be due to the declared active ingredient but also to co-formulants. These results could explain numerous in vivo results with GBHs not seen with G alone; moreover, they challenge the relevance of the acceptable daily intake (ADI value for GBHs exposures, currently calculated from toxicity tests of the declared active ingredient alone.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

1994-01-01

textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

Monitoring-induced disruption in skilled typewriting.

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, Kristy M; Logan, Gordon D

2013-10-01

It is often disruptive to attend to the details of one's expert performance. The current work presents four experiments that utilized a monitor to report protocol to evaluate the sufficiency of three accounts of monitoring-induced disruption. The inhibition hypothesis states that disruption results from costs associated with preparing to withhold inappropriate responses. The dual-task hypothesis states that disruption results from maintaining monitored information in working memory. The implicit-explicit hypothesis states that disruption results from explicitly monitoring details of performance that are normally implicit. The findings suggest that all three hypotheses are sufficient to produce disruption, but inhibition and dual-task costs are not necessary. Experiment 1 showed that monitoring to report was disruptive even when there was no requirement to inhibit. Experiment 2 showed that maintaining information in working memory caused some disruption but much less than monitoring to report. Experiment 4 showed that monitoring to inhibit was more disruptive than monitoring to report, suggesting that monitoring is more disruptive when it is combined with other task requirements, such as inhibition. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Disruptive Intelligence - How to gather Information to deal with disruptive innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vriens, D.J.; Solberg Søilen, K.

2014-01-01

Disruptive innovations are innovations that have the capacity to transform a whole business into one with products that are more accessible and affordable (cf. Christensen et al. 2009). As Christensen et al. argue no business is immune to such disruptive innovations. If these authors are right, it

Clinically meaningful scores on pain catastrophizing before and after multidisciplinary rehabilitation: a prospective study of individuals with subacute pain after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

2014-03-01

Pain catastrophizing has emerged as a significant risk factor for problematic recovery after musculoskeletal injury. As such, there has been an increased focus on interventions that target patients' levels of catastrophizing. However, it is not presently clear how clinicians might best interpret scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment. Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide preliminary guidelines for the clinical interpretation of scores on pain catastrophizing among individuals with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury. A sample of 166 occupationally disabled individuals with subacute pain due to a whiplash injury participated in this study. Participants completed a 7-week standardized multidisciplinary rehabilitation program aimed at fostering functional recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) upon program commencement and completion. One year later, participants indicated their pain severity and involvement in employment activities. Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine absolute pretreatment and posttreatment and percent change scores on the PCS that were best associated with clinically important levels of pain and employment status at the follow-up. An absolute pretreatment PCS score of 24 best identified patients according to follow-up clinical outcomes. Posttreatment PCS scores of 14 and 15 best identified patients with high follow-up pain intensity ratings and those who did not return to work, respectively. PCS reductions of approximately 38% to 44% were best associated with return to work and low pain intensity ratings at follow-up. The results indicate scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment that are clinically meaningful. These results may serve as preliminary guidelines to assess the clinical significance of interventions targeting pain catastrophizing in patients with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury.

Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

2009-01-01

In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

Science.gov (United States)

De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

2016-11-01

Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2009-01-01

Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

Relationship Between Locked Modes and Disruptions in the DIII-D Tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeney, Ryan

cause a disruption or not, and does so up to hundreds of milliseconds before the disruption. Within 20 ms of the disruption, the shortest distance between the island separatrix and the unperturbed last closed flux surface, referred to as dedge, performs comparably to l i/q95 in its ability to discriminate disruptive locked modes, and it also correlates well with the duration of the locked mode. On average, and within errors, the n=1 perturbed field grows exponentially in the final 50 ms before a disruption, however, the island width cannot discern whether a LM will disrupt or not up to 20 ms before the disruption. A few discharges are selected to analyze the evolution of the electron temperature profile in the presence of multiple coexisting locked modes during partial and full thermal quenches. Partial thermal quenches are often an initial, distinct stage in the full thermal quench caused by radiation, conduction, or convection losses. Here we explore the fundamental mechanism that causes the partial quench. Near the onset of partial thermal quenches, locked islands are observed to align in a unique way, or island widths are observed to grow above a threshold. Energy analysis on one discharge suggests that about half of the energy is lost in the divertor region. In discharges with minimum values of the safety factor above ˜1.2, and with current profiles expected to be classically stable, locked modes are observed to self-stabilize by inducing a full thermal quench, possibly by double tearing modes that remove the pressure gradient across the island, thus removing the neoclassical drive.

Politisk disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tække, Jesper

2018-01-01

Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på.......Dette blogindlæg giver en kort analyse af hvordan de sociale medier ved at give en ny tid har åbnet for den disruption af de politiske processer som især Trump stå som et eksempel på....

Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2008-01-01

Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

Towards a Disruptive Digital Platform Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol

that digital platforms leverage on three strategic design elements (i.e., business, architecture, and technology design) to create supportive conditions for facilitating disruption. To shed light on disruptive digital platforms, I opted for payment platforms as my empirical context and unit of analysis......Digital platforms are layered modular information technology architectures that support disruption. Digital platforms are particularly disruptive, as they facilitate the quick release of digital innovations that may replace established innovations. Yet, despite their support for disruption, we have...... not fully understood how such digital platforms can be strategically designed and configured to facilitate disruption. To that end, this thesis endeavors to unravel disruptive digital platforms from the supply perspective that are grounded on strategic digital platform design elements. I suggest...

Psychometric Properties of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-Modified) Among Community Samples in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum; Mukhtar, Firdaus; Ibrahim, Normala; Mohd Sidik, Sherina; Oei, Tian Po Sumantri

2016-12-01

The Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-M) is a common instrument for measuring catastrophic thoughts. In some countries, however, CCQ-M still poses concerns following the lack of appropriate validation among their populations. The current study aimed to examine the factor structure of the CCQ-M, the reliability, and the validity in community samples in Malaysia. The Malay version of CCQ-M and additional measures assessing the symptoms and cognitions relevant to anxiety disorders were completed by 682 university students and general community. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure accounting for 62.2% of the total variance. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two-factor model by deleting four items. The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the total and the two subscales were .94, .90, and .92, respectively. Test-retest reliability analysis was conducted on 82 university students in the interval period of 14 days, and the result was r = .58. Evidence supported the concurrent, convergent, and discriminant validity. In conclusion, the 17-item CCQ-M-Malaysia is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing catastrophic cognitions among Malaysian populations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

2014-01-01

The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dale R. Lockwood

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

Molecular breeding of the Mureka-non-forming sake koji mold from Aspergillus oryzae by the disruption of the mreA gene.

Science.gov (United States)

Kubodera, Takafumi; Yamashita, Nobuo; Nishimura, Akira

2003-01-01

Mureka-non-forming sake koji molds were constructed from an Aspergillus oryzae industrial strain by the disruption of the mreA gene using a host-vector system with the ptrA gene as a dominant selectable marker. All of the mreA gene disruptants obtained retained the advantages of the host strain in terms of the brewing characteristics, while their isoamyl alcohol oxidase (IAAOD) activities were significantly lower than that of the host strain. Sake brewing was successfully carried out using the koji prepared with the disruptants, followed by storage of the resultant non-pasteurized sake (nama-shu). The isovaleraldehyde (i-Val) concentration in the sake brewed the host strain increased rapidly and reached the threshold values for mureka, 1.8 ppm and 2.6 ppm after storage at 20 degrees C for 42 d and 63 d, respectively, while those of the disruptants were less than 0.5 ppm even after storage at 20 degrees C or 30 degrees C for 63 d. In the sensory evaluation of the sake stored at 20 degrees C or 30 degrees C for 63 d, all members of the panel recognized the strong mureka flavor of the sake brewed with the host strain, while they did not detect this flavor in the sake brewed with the disruptants. Thus, we concluded that the mreA gene disruptants can be used for the production of sake in which mureka is not formed.

Thigmotaxis Mediates Trail Odour Disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Stringer, Lloyd D; Corn, Joshua E; Sik Roh, Hyun; Jiménez-Pérez, Alfredo; Manning, Lee-Anne M; Harper, Aimee R; Suckling, David M

2017-05-10

Disruption of foraging using oversupply of ant trail pheromones is a novel pest management application under investigation. It presents an opportunity to investigate the interaction of sensory modalities by removal of one of the modes. Superficially similar to sex pheromone-based mating disruption in moths, ant trail pheromone disruption lacks an equivalent mechanistic understanding of how the ants respond to an oversupply of their trail pheromone. Since significant compromise of one sensory modality essential for trail following (chemotaxis) has been demonstrated, we hypothesised that other sensory modalities such as thigmotaxis could act to reduce the impact on olfactory disruption of foraging behaviour. To test this, we provided a physical stimulus of thread to aid trailing by Argentine ants otherwise under disruptive pheromone concentrations. Trail following success was higher using a physical cue. While trail integrity reduced under continuous over-supply of trail pheromone delivered directly on the thread, provision of a physical cue in the form of thread slightly improved trail following and mediated trail disruption from high concentrations upwind. Our results indicate that ants are able to use physical structures to reduce but not eliminate the effects of trail pheromone disruption.

Threshold Signature Schemes Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasiya Victorovna Beresneva

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This work is devoted to an investigation of threshold signature schemes. The systematization of the threshold signature schemes was done, cryptographic constructions based on interpolation Lagrange polynomial, elliptic curves and bilinear pairings were examined. Different methods of generation and verification of threshold signatures were explored, the availability of practical usage of threshold schemes in mobile agents, Internet banking and e-currency was shown. The topics of further investigation were given and it could reduce a level of counterfeit electronic documents signed by a group of users.

Introducing Catastrophe-QSAR. Application on Modeling Molecular Mechanisms of Pyridinone Derivative-Type HIV Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Lazea

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The classical method of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR is enriched using non-linear models, as Thom’s polynomials allow either uni- or bi-variate structural parameters. In this context, catastrophe QSAR algorithms are applied to the anti-HIV-1 activity of pyridinone derivatives. This requires calculation of the so-called relative statistical power and of its minimum principle in various QSAR models. A new index, known as a statistical relative power, is constructed as an Euclidian measure for the combined ratio of the Pearson correlation to algebraic correlation, with normalized t-Student and the Fisher tests. First and second order inter-model paths are considered for mono-variate catastrophes, whereas for bi-variate catastrophes the direct minimum path is provided, allowing the QSAR models to be tested for predictive purposes. At this stage, the max-to-min hierarchies of the tested models allow the interaction mechanism to be identified using structural parameter succession and the typical catastrophes involved. Minimized differences between these catastrophe models in the common structurally influential domains that span both the trial and tested compounds identify the “optimal molecular structural domains” and the molecules with the best output with respect to the modeled activity, which in this case is human immunodeficiency virus type 1 HIV-1 inhibition. The best molecules are characterized by hydrophobic interactions with the HIV-1 p66 subunit protein, and they concur with those identified in other 3D-QSAR analyses. Moreover, the importance of aromatic ring stacking interactions for increasing the binding affinity of the inhibitor-reverse transcriptase ligand-substrate complex is highlighted.

Supply disruption cost for power network planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjoelle, G.H.

1992-09-01

A description is given of the method of approach to calculate the total annual socio-economic cost of power supply disruption and non-supplied energy, included the utilities' cost for planning. The total socio-economic supply disruption cost is the sum of the customers' disruption cost and the utilities' cost for failure and disruption. The mean weighted disruption cost for Norway for one hour disruption is NOK 19 per kWh. The customers' annual disruption cost is calculated with basis in the specific disruption cost referred to heavy load (January) and dimensioning maximum loads. The loads are reduced by factors taking into account the time variations of the failure frequency, duration, the loads and the disruption cost. 6 refs

Disrupting the Industry with Play

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik Hautop

2016-01-01

or two ago. This is significantly disrupting the industry in several market sectors. This paper describes the components of the playware and embodied artificial intelligence research that has led to disruption in the industrial robotics sector, and which points to the next disruption of the health care...

Thresholds in radiobiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katz, R.; Hofmann, W.

1982-01-01

Interpretations of biological radiation effects frequently use the word 'threshold'. The meaning of this word is explored together with its relationship to the fundamental character of radiation effects and to the question of perception. It is emphasised that although the existence of either a dose or an LET threshold can never be settled by experimental radiobiological investigations, it may be argued on fundamental statistical grounds that for all statistical processes, and especially where the number of observed events is small, the concept of a threshold is logically invalid. (U.K.)

Cell disruption for microalgae biorefineries.

Science.gov (United States)

Günerken, E; D'Hondt, E; Eppink, M H M; Garcia-Gonzalez, L; Elst, K; Wijffels, R H

2015-01-01

Microalgae are a potential source for various valuable chemicals for commercial applications ranging from nutraceuticals to fuels. Objective in a biorefinery is to utilize biomass ingredients efficiently similarly to petroleum refineries in which oil is fractionated in fuels and a variety of products with higher value. Downstream processes in microalgae biorefineries consist of different steps whereof cell disruption is the most crucial part. To maintain the functionality of algae biochemicals during cell disruption while obtaining high disruption yields is an important challenge. Despite this need, studies on mild disruption of microalgae cells are limited. This review article focuses on the evaluation of conventional and emerging cell disruption technologies, and a comparison thereof with respect to their potential for the future microalgae biorefineries. The discussed techniques are bead milling, high pressure homogenization, high speed homogenization, ultrasonication, microwave treatment, pulsed electric field treatment, non-mechanical cell disruption and some emerging technologies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

Science.gov (United States)

Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

1977-06-01

A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

1988-01-01

Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

Major disruption process in tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurita, Gen-ichi; Azumi, Masafumi; Tuda, Takashi; Takizuka, Tomonori; Tsunematsu, Toshihide; Tokuda, Shinji; Itoh, Kimitaka; Takeda, Tatsuoki

1981-11-01

The major disruption in a cylindrical tokamak is investigated by using the multi-helicity code, and the destabilization of the 3/2 mode by the mode coupling with the 2/1 mode is confirmed. The evolution of the magnetic field topology caused by the major disruption is studied in detail. The effect of the internal disruption on the 2/1 magnetic island width is also studied. The 2/1 magnetic island is not enhanced by the flattening of the q-profile due to the internal disruption. (author)

Plasma disruption modeling and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanein, A.

1994-01-01

Disruptions in tokamak reactors are considered a limiting factor to successful operation and reliable design. The behavior of plasma-facing components during a disruption is critical to the overall integrity of the reactor. Erosion of plasma facing-material (PFM) surfaces due to thermal energy dump during the disruption can severely limit the lifetime of these components and thus diminish the economic feasibility of the reactor. A comprehensive understanding of the interplay of various physical processes during a disruption is essential for determining component lifetime and potentially improving the performance of such components. There are three principal stages in modeling the behavior of PFM during a disruption. Initially, the incident plasma particles will deposit their energy directly on the PFM surface, heating it to a very high temperature where ablation occurs. Models for plasma-material interactions have been developed and used to predict material thermal evolution during the disruption. Within a few microseconds after the start of the disruption, enough material is vaporized to intercept most of the incoming plasma particles. Models for plasma-vapor interactions are necessary to predict vapor cloud expansion and hydrodynamics. Continuous heating of the vapor cloud above the material surface by the incident plasma particles will excite, ionize, and cause vapor atoms to emit thermal radiation. Accurate models for radiation transport in the vapor are essential for calculating the net radiated flux to the material surface which determines the final erosion thickness and consequently component lifetime. A comprehensive model that takes into account various stages of plasma-material interaction has been developed and used to predict erosion rates during reactor disruption, as well during induced disruption in laboratory experiments

Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

Science.gov (United States)

shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

2017-11-01

The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

Reduced RAN expression and disrupted transport between cytoplasm and nucleus; a key event in Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Mastroeni

Full Text Available Transcription of DNA is essential for cell maintenance and survival; inappropriate localization of proteins that are involved in transcription would be catastrophic. In Alzheimer's disease brains, and in vitro studies, we have found qualitative and quantitative deficits in transport into the nucleus of DNA methyltransferase 1 (DNMT1 and RNA polymerase II (RNA pol II, accompanied by their abnormal sequestration in the cytoplasm. RAN (RAs-related Nuclear protein knockdown, by siRNA and oligomeric Aβ42 treatment in neurons, replicate human data which indicate that transport disruption in AD may be mechanistically linked to reduced expression of RAN, a pivotal molecule in nucleocytoplasmic transport. In vitro studies also indicate a significant role for oligomeric Aβ42 in the observed phenomena. We propose a model in which reduced transcription regulators in the nucleus and their increased presence in the cytoplasm may lead to many of the cellular manifestations of Alzheimer's disease.

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

There's More Than Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain: Low Frustration Tolerance and Self-Downing Also Predict Mental Health in Chronic Pain Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Suso-Ribera, Carlos; Jornet-Gibert, Montsant; Ribera Canudas, Maria Victoria; McCracken, Lance M; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Gallardo-Pujol, David

2016-06-01

Among the potential range of irrational beliefs that could be used as predictors of physical and mental health, catastrophizing is the process that has received most attention in chronic pain research. Other irrational processes such as demandingness, low frustration tolerance, and self-downing have rarely been studied. The goal of this study was to explore whether this wider range of beliefs is associated with health in chronic pain patients beyond catastrophizing. A total of 492 chronic pain patients completed a measure of irrational beliefs, a measure of physical and mental health, and a numerical rating scale designed to assess pain intensity and interference. Irrational processes were more strongly associated with mental than with physical health. Low frustration tolerance and self-downing were found to be significantly related to mental health even after controlling for the effect of catastrophizing. Processes other than catastrophizing appear to have potentially important relationships with the mental health of people with chronic pain. These results may offer new intervention targets for practitioners.

Disrupt mig vel: Fire gode råd om disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rydén, Pernille; Ringberg, Torsten; Østergaard Jacobsen, Per

2017-01-01

Forandring. Ønsket om at være teknologisk foran, kommer ofte til at ske på bekostning af fokus på kundernes oplevelser. Lighedstegnet mellem disruption og ny teknologi er kun den halve sandhed.......Forandring. Ønsket om at være teknologisk foran, kommer ofte til at ske på bekostning af fokus på kundernes oplevelser. Lighedstegnet mellem disruption og ny teknologi er kun den halve sandhed....

Disrupting Business

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cox, Geoff; Bazzichelli, Tatiana

Disruptive Business explores some of the interconnections between art, activism and the business concept of disruptive innovation. With a backdrop of the crisis of financial capitalism, austerity cuts in the cultural sphere, the idea is to focus on potential art strategies in relation to a broken...... economy. In a perverse way, we ask whether this presents new opportunities for cultural producers to achieve more autonomy over their production process. If it is indeed possible, or desirable, what alternative business models emerge? The book is concerned broadly with business as material for reinvention...

Sleep disruption in chronic rhinosinusitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdavinia, Mahboobeh; Schleimer, Robert P; Keshavarzian, Ali

2017-05-01

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a common disease of the upper airways and paranasal sinuses with a marked decline in quality of life (QOL). CRS patients suffer from sleep disruption at a significantly higher proportion (60 to 75%) than in the general population (8-18 %). Sleep disruption in CRS causes decreased QOL and is linked to poor functional outcomes such as impaired cognitive function and depression. Areas covered: A systematic PubMed/Medline search was done to assess the results of studies that have investigated sleep and sleep disturbances in CRS. Expert commentary: These studies reported sleep disruption in most CRS patients. The main risk factors for sleep disruption in CRS include allergic rhinitis, smoking, and high SNOT-22 total scores. The literature is inconsistent with regard to the prevalence of sleep-related disordered breathing (e.g. obstructive sleep apnea) in CRS patients. Although nasal obstruction is linked to sleep disruption, the extent of sleep disruption in CRS seems to expand beyond that expected from physical blockage of the upper airways alone. Despite the high prevalence of sleep disruption in CRS, and its detrimental effects on QOL, the literature contains a paucity of studies that have investigated the mechanisms underlying this major problem in CRS.

Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

2005-01-01

In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

Death Anxiety and Pain Catastrophizing Among Male Inmates With Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Behavior: A Comparative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Enea, Violeta; Dafinoiu, Ion; Bogdan, Georgiana; Matei, Carmen

2017-07-01

Most of the studies concerning nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors of persons deprived of liberty were on female participants. This cross-sectional comparative study compared the levels of death anxiety, pain catastrophizing, dissociative experiences, and state-trait anger among male inmates with nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors and noninjuring controls. The results indicated high levels of death anxiety, dissociation, and pain catastrophizing in both groups of participants and the absence of significant differences between the groups. The implications of the results suggest the need of taking into consideration these variables in the behavior management plans used with inmates who engage in self-injurious behavior.

Shifts in the relationship between motor unit recruitment thresholds versus derecruitment thresholds during fatigue.

Science.gov (United States)

Stock, Matt S; Mota, Jacob A

2017-12-01

Muscle fatigue is associated with diminished twitch force amplitude. We examined changes in the motor unit recruitment versus derecruitment threshold relationship during fatigue. Nine men (mean age = 26 years) performed repeated isometric contractions at 50% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) knee extensor force until exhaustion. Surface electromyographic signals were detected from the vastus lateralis, and were decomposed into their constituent motor unit action potential trains. Motor unit recruitment and derecruitment thresholds and firing rates at recruitment and derecruitment were evaluated at the beginning, middle, and end of the protocol. On average, 15 motor units were studied per contraction. For the initial contraction, three subjects showed greater recruitment thresholds than derecruitment thresholds for all motor units. Five subjects showed greater recruitment thresholds than derecruitment thresholds for only low-threshold motor units at the beginning, with a mean cross-over of 31.6% MVC. As the muscle fatigued, many motor units were derecruited at progressively higher forces. In turn, decreased slopes and increased y-intercepts were observed. These shifts were complemented by increased firing rates at derecruitment relative to recruitment. As the vastus lateralis fatigued, the central nervous system's compensatory adjustments resulted in a shift of the regression line of the recruitment versus derecruitment threshold relationship. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals in mixture and obesity, diabetes and related metabolic disorders

Science.gov (United States)

Le Magueresse-Battistoni, Brigitte; Labaronne, Emmanuel; Vidal, Hubert; Naville, Danielle

2017-01-01

Obesity and associated metabolic disorders represent a major societal challenge in health and quality of life with large psychological consequences in addition to physical disabilities. They are also one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Although, different etiologic factors including excessive food intake and reduced physical activity have been well identified, they cannot explain the kinetics of epidemic evolution of obesity and diabetes with prevalence rates reaching pandemic proportions. Interestingly, convincing data have shown that environmental pollutants, specifically those endowed with endocrine disrupting activities, could contribute to the etiology of these multifactorial metabolic disorders. Within this review, we will recapitulate characteristics of endocrine disruption. We will demonstrate that metabolic disorders could originate from endocrine disruption with a particular focus on convincing data from the literature. Eventually, we will present how handling an original mouse model of chronic exposition to a mixture of pollutants allowed demonstrating that a mixture of pollutants each at doses beyond their active dose could induce substantial deleterious effects on several metabolic end-points. This proof-of-concept study, as well as other studies on mixtures of pollutants, stresses the needs for revisiting the current threshold model used in risk assessment which does not take into account potential effects of mixtures containing pollutants at environmental doses, e.g., the real life exposure. Certainly, more studies are necessary to better determine the nature of the chemicals to which humans are exposed and at which level, and their health impact. As well, research studies on substitute products are essential to identify harmless molecules. PMID:28588754

Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

OpenAIRE

Pan, Xubin

2017-01-01

There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

Threshold factorization redux

Science.gov (United States)

Chay, Junegone; Kim, Chul

2018-05-01

We reanalyze the factorization theorems for the Drell-Yan process and for deep inelastic scattering near threshold, as constructed in the framework of the soft-collinear effective theory (SCET), from a new, consistent perspective. In order to formulate the factorization near threshold in SCET, we should include an additional degree of freedom with small energy, collinear to the beam direction. The corresponding collinear-soft mode is included to describe the parton distribution function (PDF) near threshold. The soft function is modified by subtracting the contribution of the collinear-soft modes in order to avoid double counting on the overlap region. As a result, the proper soft function becomes infrared finite, and all the factorized parts are free of rapidity divergence. Furthermore, the separation of the relevant scales in each factorized part becomes manifest. We apply the same idea to the dihadron production in e+e- annihilation near threshold, and show that the resultant soft function is also free of infrared and rapidity divergences.

Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesperance, Ann M.

2008-06-30

On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

2014-05-01

This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

Understanding disruptions in tokamaksa)

Science.gov (United States)

Zakharov, Leonid E.; Galkin, Sergei A.; Gerasimov, Sergei N.; contributors, JET-EFDA

2012-05-01

This paper describes progress achieved since 2007 in understanding disruptions in tokamaks, when the effect of plasma current sharing with the wall was introduced into theory. As a result, the toroidal asymmetry of the plasma current measurements during vertical disruption event (VDE) on the Joint European Torus was explained. A new kind of plasma equilibria and mode coupling was introduced into theory, which can explain the duration of the external kink 1/1 mode during VDE. The paper presents first results of numerical simulations using a free boundary plasma model, relevant to disruptions.

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

2018-01-01

the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

Detection thresholds of macaque otolith afferents.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xiong-Jie; Dickman, J David; Angelaki, Dora E

2012-06-13

The vestibular system is our sixth sense and is important for spatial perception functions, yet the sensory detection and discrimination properties of vestibular neurons remain relatively unexplored. Here we have used signal detection theory to measure detection thresholds of otolith afferents using 1 Hz linear accelerations delivered along three cardinal axes. Direction detection thresholds were measured by comparing mean firing rates centered on response peak and trough (full-cycle thresholds) or by comparing peak/trough firing rates with spontaneous activity (half-cycle thresholds). Thresholds were similar for utricular and saccular afferents, as well as for lateral, fore/aft, and vertical motion directions. When computed along the preferred direction, full-cycle direction detection thresholds were 7.54 and 3.01 cm/s(2) for regular and irregular firing otolith afferents, respectively. Half-cycle thresholds were approximately double, with excitatory thresholds being half as large as inhibitory thresholds. The variability in threshold among afferents was directly related to neuronal gain and did not depend on spike count variance. The exact threshold values depended on both the time window used for spike count analysis and the filtering method used to calculate mean firing rate, although differences between regular and irregular afferent thresholds were independent of analysis parameters. The fact that minimum thresholds measured in macaque otolith afferents are of the same order of magnitude as human behavioral thresholds suggests that the vestibular periphery might determine the limit on our ability to detect or discriminate small differences in head movement, with little noise added during downstream processing.

Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

1979-01-01

Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzvetanov, G.

2009-01-01

A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

Thyroid effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boas, Malene; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Main, Katharina M

2012-01-01

In recent years, many studies of thyroid-disrupting effects of environmental chemicals have been published. Of special concern is the exposure of pregnant women and infants, as thyroid disruption of the developing organism may have deleterious effects on neurological outcome. Chemicals may exert ...... thyroid-disrupting effects, and there is emerging evidence that also phthalates, bisphenol A, brominated flame retardants and perfluorinated chemicals may have thyroid disrupting properties....

Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

2016-01-01

This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

Threshold guidance update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wickham, L.E.

1986-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the concept of threshold quantities for use in determining which waste materials must be handled as radioactive waste and which may be disposed of as nonradioactive waste at its sites. Waste above this concentration level would be managed as radioactive or mixed waste (if hazardous chemicals are present); waste below this level would be handled as sanitary waste. Last years' activities (1984) included the development of a threshold guidance dose, the development of threshold concentrations corresponding to the guidance dose, the development of supporting documentation, review by a technical peer review committee, and review by the DOE community. As a result of the comments, areas have been identified for more extensive analysis, including an alternative basis for selection of the guidance dose and the development of quality assurance guidelines. Development of quality assurance guidelines will provide a reasonable basis for determining that a given waste stream qualifies as a threshold waste stream and can then be the basis for a more extensive cost-benefit analysis. The threshold guidance and supporting documentation will be revised, based on the comments received. The revised documents will be provided to DOE by early November. DOE-HQ has indicated that the revised documents will be available for review by DOE field offices and their contractors

Disruption Physics and Mitigation on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whyte, D.G.; Humphreys, D.A.; Kellman, A.G.

2005-01-01

The contributions of the DIII-D tokamak toward the understanding and control of disruptions are reviewed. Disruptions are found to be deterministic, and the underlying causes of disruption can therefore be predicted and avoided. With sufficiently rapid detection, possible damage from disruptions can be mitigated using an understanding of disruption phenomenology and plasma physics. Regimes of high β are readily available in DIII-D and provide access to relatively high energy density disruptions, despite DIII-D's moderate magnetic field and size. DIII-D, with all-graphite wall armor and wall conditioning between discharges, has proven highly resilient to the deleterious effects that disruptions can have on plasma operations. Simultaneously, exploitation and adaptation of DIII-D's extensive core and edge plasma diagnostic set have allowed for unique plasma measurements during disruptions. These measurements have tied into the development of several physical models used to understand aspects of disruptions, such as magnetohydrodynamic growth at the disruption onset, radiation energy balance through the thermal quench, and halo currents during the current quench. Based on this fundamental understanding, DIII-D has developed techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of disruptions by radiative dissipation of the plasma energy and extrapolated these techniques for possible use on larger devices like ITER

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garnets, O.

1998-01-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garnets, O. [UNESCO-Chernobyl Programme Project (Ukraine)

1998-07-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

2012-12-01

Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

1982-01-01

A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

Disrupted Self-Perception in People With Chronic Low Back Pain. Further Evaluation of the Fremantle Back Awareness Questionnaire.

Science.gov (United States)

Wand, Benedict Martin; Catley, Mark Jon; Rabey, Martin Ian; O'Sullivan, Peter Bruce; O'Connell, Neil Edward; Smith, Anne Julia

2016-09-01

distress, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance beliefs, and lumbar pressure pain threshold. In this sample, it appears that altered self-perception might be a more important determinant of clinical severity than psychological distress, pain catastrophization, fear avoidance beliefs, or lumbar pressure pain threshold. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in Depression, Health Anxiety, and Pain Catastrophizing Between Enrollment and 1 Month After a Radius Fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Golkari, Sina; Teunis, Teun; Ring, David; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

2015-01-01

To test the difference in symptoms of (1) depression, (2) health anxiety, and (3) catastrophic thinking between 1 and 6 weeks after injury to the radius. In total, 69 adult patients with a minimally displaced radial head or distal radius fracture were prospectively enrolled. After diagnosis, we recorded demographic variables, 11-point ordinal numerical pain score, and agreement with "no pain, no gain"; Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) questionnaire; Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; the Whiteley Index; and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. In total, 55 patients (80%) returned after 1 month to reevaluate pain, Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression, Whiteley Index, and Pain Catastrophizing Scale scores. Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scores decreased by an average of 5 ± 9 points (p psychologic measures are used as a screening tool to predict outcome after treatment, one should account for a patient's disease phase. Prognostic level I. Copyright © 2015 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

Science.gov (United States)

Hsü, Kenneth J.

1980-05-01

Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

Masticatory sensory-motor changes after an experimental chewing test influenced by pain catastrophizing and neck-pain-related disability in patients with headache attributed to temporomandibular disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

La Touche, Roy; Paris-Alemany, Alba; Gil-Martínez, Alfonso; Pardo-Montero, Joaquín; Angulo-Díaz-Parreño, Santiago; Fernández-Carnero, Josué

2015-03-05

Recent research has shown a relationship of craniomandibular disability with neck-pain-related disability has been shown. However, there is still insufficient information demonstrating the influence of neck pain and disability in the sensory-motor activity in patients with headache attributed to temporomandibular disorders (TMD). The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of neck-pain-related disability on masticatory sensory-motor variables. An experimental case-control study investigated 83 patients with headache attributed to TMD and 39 healthy controls. Patients were grouped according to their scores on the neck disability index (NDI) (mild and moderate neck disability). Initial assessment included the pain catastrophizing scale and the Headache Impact Test-6. The protocol consisted of baseline measurements of pressure pain thresholds (PPT) and pain-free maximum mouth opening (MMO). Individuals were asked to perform the provocation chewing test, and measurements were taken immediately after and 24 hours later. During the test, patients were assessed for subjective feelings of fatigue (VAFS) and pain intensity. VAFS was higher at 6 minutes (mean 51.7; 95% CI: 50.15-53.26) and 24 hours after (21.08; 95% CI: 18.6-23.5) for the group showing moderate neck disability compared with the mild neck disability group (6 minutes, 44.16; 95% CI 42.65-45.67/ 24 hours after, 14.3; 95% CI: 11.9-16.7) and the control group. The analysis shows a decrease in the pain-free MMO only in the group of moderate disability 24 hours after the test. PPTs of the trigeminal region decreased immediately in all groups, whereas at 24 hours, a decrease was observed in only the groups of patients. PPTs of the cervical region decreased in only the group with moderate neck disability 24 hours after the test. The strongest negative correlation was found between pain-free MMO immediately after the test and NDI in both the mild (r = -0.49) and moderate (r = -0.54) neck disability

Disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chandra, Y.; Yang, S.-J.S.; Singh, P.; Prajogo, D.; O'Neill, P.; Rahman, S.

2008-01-01

Research on conditions and causal mechanisms that influence disruptive innovation has been relatively unexplored in the extant research in disruptive innovation. By re-conceptualizing disruptive innovation as an entrepreneurial process at product, firm and industry levels, this paper draws on

Automatic location of disruption times in JET

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, R.; Vega, J.; Murari, A.

2014-11-01

The loss of stability and confinement in tokamak plasmas can induce critical events known as disruptions. Disruptions produce strong electromagnetic forces and thermal loads which can damage fundamental components of the devices. Determining the disruption time is extremely important for various disruption studies: theoretical models, physics-driven models, or disruption predictors. In JET, during the experimental campaigns with the JET-C (Carbon Fiber Composite) wall, a common criterion to determine the disruption time consisted of locating the time of the thermal quench. However, with the metallic ITER-like wall (JET-ILW), this criterion is usually not valid. Several thermal quenches may occur previous to the current quench but the temperature recovers. Therefore, a new criterion has to be defined. A possibility is to use the start of the current quench as disruption time. This work describes the implementation of an automatic data processing method to estimate the disruption time according to this new definition. This automatic determination allows both reducing human efforts to locate the disruption times and standardizing the estimates (with the benefit of being less vulnerable to human errors).

Automatic location of disruption times in JET.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, R; Vega, J; Murari, A

2014-11-01

The loss of stability and confinement in tokamak plasmas can induce critical events known as disruptions. Disruptions produce strong electromagnetic forces and thermal loads which can damage fundamental components of the devices. Determining the disruption time is extremely important for various disruption studies: theoretical models, physics-driven models, or disruption predictors. In JET, during the experimental campaigns with the JET-C (Carbon Fiber Composite) wall, a common criterion to determine the disruption time consisted of locating the time of the thermal quench. However, with the metallic ITER-like wall (JET-ILW), this criterion is usually not valid. Several thermal quenches may occur previous to the current quench but the temperature recovers. Therefore, a new criterion has to be defined. A possibility is to use the start of the current quench as disruption time. This work describes the implementation of an automatic data processing method to estimate the disruption time according to this new definition. This automatic determination allows both reducing human efforts to locate the disruption times and standardizing the estimates (with the benefit of being less vulnerable to human errors).

Search and Disrupt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørding Olsen, Anders

. However, incumbent sources engaged in capability reconfiguration to accommodate disruption improve search efforts in disruptive technologies. The paper concludes that the value of external sources is contingent on more than their knowledge. Specifically, interdependence of sources in search gives rise...... to influence from individual strategic interests on the outcomes. More generally, this points to the need for understanding the two-way influence of sources, rather than viewing external search as one-way knowledge accessing....

Pursuing minimally disruptive medicine: disruption from illness and health care-related demands is correlated with patient capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Boehmer, Kasey R; Shippee, Nathan D; Beebe, Timothy J; Montori, Victor M

2016-06-01

Chronic conditions burden patients with illness and treatments. We know little about the disruption of life by the work of dialysis in relation to the resources patients can mobilize, that is, their capacity, to deal with such demands. We sought to determine the disruption of life by dialysis and its relation to patient capacity to cope. We administered a survey to 137 patients on dialysis at an academic medical center. We captured disruption from illness and treatment, and physical, mental, personal, social, financial, and environmental aspects of patient capacity using validated scales. Covariates included number of prescriptions, hours spent on health care, existence of dependents, age, sex, and income level. On average, patients reported levels of capacity and disruption comparable to published levels. In multivariate regression models, limited physical, financial, and mental capacity were significantly associated with greater disruption. Patients in the top quartile of disruption had lower-than-expected physical, financial, and mental capacity. Our sample generally had capacity comparable to other populations and may be able to meet the demands imposed by treatment. Those with reduced physical, financial, and mental capacity reported higher disruption and represent a vulnerable group that may benefit from innovations in minimally disruptive medicine. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (II): thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyze the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations, and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analyzed on thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Effectiveness of the psychological and pharmacological treatment of catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia: a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magallón Rosa

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia is a prevalent and disabling disorder characterized by widespread pain and other symptoms such as insomnia, fatigue or depression. Catastrophization is considered a key clinical symptom in fibromyalgia; however, there are no studies on the pharmacological or psychological treatment of catastrophizing. The general aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of cognitive-behaviour therapy and recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia (pregabalin, with duloxetine added where there is a comorbid depression, compared with usual treatment at primary care level. Method/design Design: A multi-centre, randomized controlled trial involving three groups: the control group, consisting of usual treatment at primary care level, and two intervention groups, one consisting of cognitive-behaviour therapy, and the other consisting of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia. Setting: 29 primary care health centres in the city of Zaragoza, Spain. Sample: 180 patients, aged 18–65 years, able to understand and read Spanish, who fulfil criteria for primary fibromyalgia, with no previous psychological treatment, and no pharmacological treatment or their acceptance to discontinue it two weeks before the onset of the study. Intervention: Psychological treatment is based on the manualized protocol developed by Prof. Escobar et al, from the University of New Jersey, for the treatment of somatoform disorders, which has been adapted by our group for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It includes 10 weekly sessions of cognitive-behaviour therapy. Pharmacological therapy consists of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia: pregabalin (300–600 mg/day, with duloxetine (60–120 mg/day added where there is a comorbid depression. Measurements: The following socio-demographic data will be collected: sex, age, marital status, education, occupation and social class. The diagnosis of psychiatric

Near-Death and Other Transpersonal Experiences Occurring During Catastrophic Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Madelaine

2017-06-01

The purpose of this article is to describe examples of near-death and other transpersonal experiences occurring during catastrophic events like floods, wars, bombings, and death camps. To date, researchers have limited their investigations of these transpersonal events to those occurring to seriously ill patients in hospitals, those dying from terminal illnesses, or to individuals experiencing a period of grief after the death of a loved one. Missing is awareness by first responders and emergency healthcare professionals about these transpersonal experiences and what to say to the individuals who have them. Some responders experience not only deaths of the victims they assist, but also deaths of their colleagues. Information about these transpersonal experiences can also be of comfort to them. The examples in this article include a near-death experience during the Vietnam War, an out-of-body experience after a bomb explosion during the Iraq War, a near-death visit to a woman imprisoned at Auschwitz, and two after-death communications, one from a person killed in Auschwitz and another from a soldier during World War I. Also included are interviews with two New York City policemen who were September 11, 2001 responders. It is hoped the information will provide knowledge of these experiences to those who care for those near death, or dying, or grieving because of catastrophic events, and encourage researchers to further investigate these experiences during disasters.

Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

Intermediate structure and threshold phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hategan, Cornel

2004-01-01

The Intermediate Structure, evidenced through microstructures of the neutron strength function, is reflected in open reaction channels as fluctuations in excitation function of nuclear threshold effects. The intermediate state supporting both neutron strength function and nuclear threshold effect is a micro-giant neutron threshold state. (author)

Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thorsten Schmidt

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

2010-01-01

Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

Nuclear threshold effects and neutron strength function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hategan, Cornel; Comisel, Horia

2003-01-01

One proves that a Nuclear Threshold Effect is dependent, via Neutron Strength Function, on Spectroscopy of Ancestral Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the Nuclear Threshold Effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function. Evidence for relation of Nuclear Threshold Effects to Neutron Strength Functions is obtained from Isotopic Threshold Effect and Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly. The empirical and computational analysis of the Isotopic Threshold Effect and of the Deuteron Stripping Threshold Anomaly demonstrate their close relationship to Neutron Strength Functions. It was established that the Nuclear Threshold Effects depend, in addition to genuine Nuclear Reaction Mechanisms, on Spectroscopy of (Ancestral) Neutron Threshold State. The magnitude of the effect is proportional to the Neutron Strength Function, in their dependence on mass number. This result constitutes also a proof that the origins of these threshold effects are Neutron Single Particle States at zero energy. (author)

Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

OpenAIRE

Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

2015-01-01

Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-30

Ropes James Chen Beam Physics Branch Plasma Physics Division December 30, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. i REPORT...pressure gradient force combine to balance the major radial hoop force. The macroscopic forces on the flux ropes and onset conditions are quantified...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division

Structured Literature Review of digital disruption literature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesti, Helle; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss; Gertsen, Frank

2018-01-01

Digital disruption is a term/phenomenon frequently appearing in innovation management literature. However, no academic consensus exists as to what it entails; conceptual nor theoretical. We use the SLR-method (Structured Literature Review) to investigate digital disruption literature. A SLR......-study conducted in 2017 revealed some useful information on how disruption and digital disruption literature has developed over a specific period. However, this study was less representative of papers addressing digital disruption; which is the in-depth subject of this paper. To accommodate this, we intend...... to conduct a similar SLR-study assembling a body literature having digital disruption as the only common denominator...

Mechanistic evaluation of endocrine disrupting chemicals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taxvig, Camilla

BACKGROUND: This PhD project is part of the research area concerning effects of endocrine disrupters at the National Food Institute at DTU in Denmark. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have proved to be important for improper development of the male reproductive organs and subsequent for the ...... metabolising system using liver S9 mixtures or hepatic rat microsomes could be a convenient method for the incorporation of metabolic aspects into in vitro testing for endocrine disrupting effects.......BACKGROUND: This PhD project is part of the research area concerning effects of endocrine disrupters at the National Food Institute at DTU in Denmark. Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have proved to be important for improper development of the male reproductive organs and subsequent......, to be able to detect effects and predict mixture effects. In addition, a new hypothesis have emerge concerning a potential role of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals, and the development of obesity and obesity related diseases. AIM: This PhD project aimed to gain more information regarding...

Catastrophic misinterpretations as a predictor of symptom change during treatment for panic disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A; Marker, Craig D; Clerkin, Elise M

2010-12-01

Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related to the trajectory of change in a variety of panic-relevant outcomes. Participants had a primary diagnosis of panic disorder (N = 43; 70% female; mean age = 40.14 years). Race or ethnicity was reported as 91% Caucasian, 5% African American, 2.3% biracial, and 2.3% "other." Change in catastrophic misinterpretations (assessed with the Brief Body Sensations Interpretation Questionnaire; Clark et al., 1997) was used to predict a variety of treatment outcomes, including overall panic symptom severity (assessed with the Panic Disorder Severity Scale [PDSS]; Shear et al., 1997), panic attack frequency (assessed with the relevant PDSS item), panic-related distress/apprehension (assessed by a latent factor, including peak anxiety in response to a panic-relevant stressor-a straw breathing task), and avoidance (assessed by a latent factor, which included the Fear Questionnaire-Agoraphobic Avoidance subscale; Marks & Mathews, 1979). Bivariate latent difference score modeling indicated that, as expected, change in catastrophic misinterpretations predicted subsequent reductions in overall symptom severity, panic attack frequency, distress/apprehension, and avoidance behavior. However, change in the various symptom domains was not typically a significant predictor of later interpretation change (except for the distress/apprehension factor). These results provide considerable support for the cognitive model of panic and speak to the temporal sequence of change processes during therapy. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

Overview of core disruptive accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchaterre, J.F.

1977-01-01

An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

Disruption studies in ASDEX Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pautasso, G.

2002-01-01

Disruption generate large thermal and mechanical stresses on the tokamak components. For a future reactor disruptions have a significant impact on the design since all loading conditions must be analyzed in accordance with stricter design criteria (due to safety or difficult maintenance). Therefore the uncertainties affecting the predicted stresses must be reduced as much as possible with a more comprehensive set of measurements and analyses in this generation of experimental machines, and avoidance/ predictive methods must be developed further. The study of disruptions on ASDEX Upgrade is focused on these subjects, namely on: (1) understanding the physical mechanisms leading to this phenomenon and learning to avoid it or to predict its occurrence (with neural networks, for example) and to mitigate its effects; (2) analyzing the effects of disruptions on the machine to determine the functional dependence of the thermal and mechanical loads upon the discharge parameters. This allows to dimension or reinforce the machine components to withstand these loads and to extrapolate them to tokamaks still in the design phase; (3) learning to mitigate the consequence of disruptions. (author)

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1979-01-01

Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

Routine Responses to Disruption of Routines

Science.gov (United States)

Guha, Mahua

2015-01-01

"Organisational routines" is a widely studied research area. However, there is a dearth of research on disruption of routines. The few studies on disruption of routines discussed problem-solving activities that are carried out in response to disruption. In contrast, this study develops a theory of "solution routines" that are a…

The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lazaridou A

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Asimina Lazaridou,1 Marc O Martel,1 Christine M Cahalan,1 Marise C Cornelius,1 Olivia Franceschelli,1 Claudia M Campbell,2 Jennifer A Haythornthwaite,2 Michael Smith,2 Joseph Riley,3 Robert R Edwards1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Department of Community Dentistry and Behavioral Science, College of Dentistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Objective: To examine the influence of anxiety and pain-related catastrophizing on the time course of acute interleukin-6 (IL-6 responses to standardized noxious stimulation among patients with chronic pain.Methods: Data were collected from 48 participants in the following demographically matched groups: patients with chronic pain (n=36 and healthy controls (n=12. Participants underwent a series of Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST procedures assessing responses to mechanical and thermal stimuli during two separate visits, in a randomized order. One visit consisted of standard, moderately painful QST procedures, while the other visit involved nonpainful analogs to these testing procedures. Blood samples were taken at baseline, and then for up to 2 hours after QST in order to study the time course of IL-6 responses.Results: Results of multilevel analyses revealed that IL-6 responses increased across assessment time points in both visits (p<0.001. While patients with chronic pain and healthy controls did not differ in the magnitude of IL-6 responses, psychological factors influenced IL-6 trajectories only in the chronic pain group. Among patients, increases in catastrophizing over the course of the QST session were associated with elevated IL-6 responses only during the painful QST session (p<0.05. When controlling for anxiety, results indicated that the main multilevel model among patients remained significant

The disruption management model.

Science.gov (United States)

McAlister, James

2011-10-01

Within all organisations, business continuity disruptions present a set of dilemmas that managers may not have dealt with before in their normal daily duties. The disruption management model provides a simple but effective management tool to enable crisis management teams to stay focused on recovery in the midst of a business continuity incident. The model has four chronological primary headlines, which steer the team through a quick-time crisis decision-making process. The procedure facilitates timely, systematic, rationalised and justified decisions, which can withstand post-event scrutiny. The disruption management model has been thoroughly tested within an emergency services environment and is proven to significantly support clear and concise decision making in a business continuity context.

Children's selective attention to pain and avoidance behaviour: the role of child and parental catastrophizing about pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri M L

2013-10-01

The present study investigated selective attention to pain in children, its implications for child avoidance behaviour, and the moderating role of dimensions comprising child and parental catastrophizing about pain (ie, rumination, magnification, and helplessness). Participants were 59 children (31 boys) aged 10-16 years and one of their parents (41 mothers). Children performed a dot-probe task in which child facial pain displays of varying pain expressiveness were presented. Child avoidance behaviour was indexed by child pain tolerance during a cold-pressor task. Children and parents completed measures of child and parent pain catastrophizing, respectively. Findings indicated that both the nature of child selective attention to pain and the impact of selective attention upon child avoidance behaviour were differentially sensitive to specific dimensions of child and parental catastrophizing. Specifically, findings showed greater tendency to shift attention away from pain faces (i.e.,, attentional avoidance) among children reporting greater pain magnification. A similar pattern was observed in terms of parental characteristics, such that children increasingly shifted attention away from pain with increasing levels of parental rumination and helplessness. Furthermore, child attentional avoidance was associated with greater avoidance behaviour (i.e., lower pain tolerance) among children reporting high levels of pain magnification and those whose parents reported greater rumination about pain. The current findings corroborate catastrophizing as a multidimensional construct that may differentially impact outcomes and attest to the importance of assessing both child and parental characteristics in relation to child pain-related attention and avoidance behaviour. Further research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Wavelet Threshold Function and Denoising Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Jing-yi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the effects of denoising, this paper introduces the basic principles of wavelet threshold denoising and traditional structures threshold functions. Meanwhile, it proposes wavelet threshold function and fixed threshold formula which are both improved here. First, this paper studies the problems existing in the traditional wavelet threshold functions and introduces the adjustment factors to construct the new threshold function basis on soft threshold function. Then, it studies the fixed threshold and introduces the logarithmic function of layer number of wavelet decomposition to design the new fixed threshold formula. Finally, this paper uses hard threshold, soft threshold, Garrote threshold, and improved threshold function to denoise different signals. And the paper also calculates signal-to-noise (SNR and mean square errors (MSE of the hard threshold functions, soft thresholding functions, Garrote threshold functions, and the improved threshold function after denoising. Theoretical analysis and experimental results showed that the proposed approach could improve soft threshold functions with constant deviation and hard threshold with discontinuous function problems. The proposed approach could improve the different decomposition scales that adopt the same threshold value to deal with the noise problems, also effectively filter the noise in the signals, and improve the SNR and reduce the MSE of output signals.

Sustainable Disruption Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vaaben, Bo Valdemar

The world we live in is globalized. Goods are seldom made in the place where they are used or consumed, and we do increasingly travel to other countries for either business or pleasure. In our everyday lives we rely on well-functioning global transportations systems to continue the standard...... in the same way, when operation is disrupted. Never the less, we may recall that the Suez Canal was closed due to riots in Egypt, that the fuel price was impacted by threats of closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and we do from time to time hear about acts of piracy outside the coast of Somalia. All...... papers combining disruption management and flight planning through an integrated optimization approach. An additional contribution of the thesis is to show how flexible flight speeds can be used to improve recovery from disruptions, while at the same time allowing an airline to trade off fuel costs...

New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

Science.gov (United States)

1994-01-01

Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

The relationship between pain catastrophizing, kinesiophobia and subjective knee function during rehabilitation following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscectomy: A pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Tichonova

2016-01-01

Conclusions: Pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia decreased during rehabilitation. A higher pain catastrophizing level correlated with a greater level of knee pain during activities, more difficulties experienced during daily activities before and after rehabilitation. A high level of kinesiophobia correlated with more difficulties experienced in daily activities and poorer knee-related quality of life before and after rehabilitation.

Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Boonstra, Anne M; Stewart, Roy E; Köke, Albère J A; Oosterwijk, René F A; Swaan, Jeannette L; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R

2016-01-01

Objectives: The 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients' catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6-7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4-6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

2015-01-01

While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; pMalaysia.

Disruption and Distinctiveness in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Purcell, Wendy

2014-01-01

"Disruption"--while an evocative word triggering feelings of anxiety and perhaps even fear--also signals renewal and growth. The Higher Education (HE) sector in England has experienced some profound disruption over the years, and yet has emerged stronger and renewed in many ways. The impact of recent disruptive forces, from fees to the…

Conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing as preoperative predictors of pain following chest wall surgery: a prospective observational cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasper Grosen

Full Text Available Variability in patients' postoperative pain experience and response to treatment challenges effective pain management. Variability in pain reflects individual differences in inhibitory pain modulation and psychological sensitivity, which in turn may be clinically relevant for the disposition to acquire pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing on postoperative pain and pain persistency.Preoperatively, 42 healthy males undergoing funnel chest surgery completed the Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory before undergoing a sequential conditioned pain modulation paradigm. Subsequently, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was introduced and patients were instructed to reference the conditioning pain while answering. Ratings of movement-evoked pain and consumption of morphine equivalents were obtained during postoperative days 2-5. Pain was reevaluated at six months postoperatively.Patients reporting persistent pain at six months follow-up (n = 15 were not significantly different from pain-free patients (n = 16 concerning preoperative conditioned pain modulation response (Z = 1.0, P = 0.3 or level of catastrophizing (Z = 0.4, P = 1.0. In the acute postoperative phase, situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain, independently of anxiety and depression (β = 1.0, P = 0.007 whereas conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption (β = -0.005, P = 0.001.Preoperative conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing were not associated with the development of persistent postoperative pain following funnel chest repair. Secondary outcome analyses indicated that conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption and situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain intensity in the acute postoperative phase. These findings may have

Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-16

through support by a prior DOD grant, and in this project, we focused on how to effectively adapt this for the cloud catastrophe environment. The...the effects of varying cloud resources and the cloud architecture on L, o, and g values, we will be able to formulate realistic analytical models of...variation in computing and communication costs of test problems due to varying loads in the cloud environment. We used the parallel matrix multiplication

The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

OpenAIRE

Gatti, Gabriel

2013-01-01

This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

Neural-net disruption predictor in JT-60U

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshino, R.

2003-01-01

The prediction of major disruptions caused by the density limit, the plasma current ramp-down with high internal inductance l i , the low density locked mode and the β-limit has been investigated in JT-60U. The concept of 'stability level', newly proposed in this paper to predict the occurrence of a major disruption, is calculated from nine input parameters every 2 ms by the neural network and the start of a major disruption is predicted when the stability level decreases to a certain level, the 'alarm level'. The neural network is trained in two steps. It is first trained with 12 disruptive and six non-disruptive shots (total of 8011 data points). Second, the target output data for 12 disruptive shots are modified and the network is trained again with additional data points generated by the operator. The 'neural-net disruption predictor' obtained has been tested for 300 disruptive shots (128 945 data points) and 1008 non-disruptive shots (982 800 data points) selected from nine years of operation (1991-1999) of JT-60U. Major disruptions except for those caused by the -limit have been predicted with a prediction success rate of 97-98% at 10 ms prior to the disruption and higher than 90% at 30 ms prior to the disruption while the false alarm rate is 2.1% for non-disruptive shots. This prediction performance has been confirmed for 120 disruptive shots (56 163 data points), caused by the density limit, as well as 1032 non-disruptive shots (1004 611 data points) in the last four years of operation (1999-2002) of JT-60U. A careful selection of the input parameters supplied to the network and the newly developed two-step training of the network have reduced the false alarm rate resulting in a considerable improvement of the prediction success rate. (author)

Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

2009-01-01

It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

Science.gov (United States)

Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

2017-01-01

To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

Cytotoxic effects and aromatase inhibition by xenobiotic endocrine disrupters alone and in combination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benachour, Nora; Moslemi, Safa; Sipahutar, Herbert; Seralini, Gilles-Eric

2007-01-01

Xenobiotics may cause long-term adverse effects in humans, especially at the embryonic level, raising questions about their levels of exposure, combined effects, and crucial endpoints. We are interested in the possible interactions between xenobiotic endocrine disrupters, cellular viability and androgen metabolism. Accordingly, we tested aroclor 1254 (A1254), atrazine (AZ), o,p'-DDT, vinclozolin (VZ), p,p'-DDE, bisphenol A (BPA), chlordecone (CD), nonylphenol (NP), tributylin oxide (TBTO), and diethylstilbestrol (DES) for cellular toxicity against human embryonic 293 cells, and activity against cellular aromatase, but also on placental microsomes and on the purified equine enzyme. Cellular viability was affected in 24 h by all the xenobiotics with a threshold at 50 μM (except for TBTO and DES, 10 μM threshold), and aromatase was inhibited at non-toxic doses. In combination synergism was observed reducing the threshold values of toxicity to 4-10 μM, and aromatase activity by 50% in some cases. In placental microsomes the most active xenobiotics rapidly inhibited microsomal aromatase in a manner independent of NADPH metabolism. Prolonged exposures to low doses in cells generally amplified by 50 times aromatase inhibition. These xenobiotics may act by inhibition of the active site or by allosteric effects on the enzyme. Bioaccumulation is a feature of some xenobiotics, especially chlordecone, DDT and DDE, and low level chronic exposures can also affect cell signaling mechanisms. This new information about the mechanism of action of these xenobiotics will assist in improved molecular design with a view to providing safer compounds for use in the (human) environment

Probabilistic analysis of tokamak plasma disruptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanzo, D.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.

1985-01-01

An approximate analytical solution to the heat conduction equations used in modeling component melting and vaporization resulting from plasma disruptions is presented. This solution is then used to propagate uncertainties in the input data characterizing disruptions, namely, energy density and disruption time, to obtain a probabilistic description of the output variables of interest, material melted and vaporized. (orig.)

Threshold behavior in electron-atom scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadeghpour, H.R.; Greene, C.H.

1996-01-01

Ever since the classic work of Wannier in 1953, the process of treating two threshold electrons in the continuum of a positively charged ion has been an active field of study. The authors have developed a treatment motivated by the physics below the double ionization threshold. By modeling the double ionization as a series of Landau-Zener transitions, they obtain an analytical formulation of the absolute threshold probability which has a leading power law behavior, akin to Wannier's law. Some of the noteworthy aspects of this derivation are that the derivation can be conveniently continued below threshold giving rise to a open-quotes cuspclose quotes at threshold, and that on both sides of the threshold, absolute values of the cross sections are obtained

Plasma membrane disruption: repair, prevention, adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

McNeil, Paul L.; Steinhardt, Richard A.

2003-01-01

Many metazoan cells inhabit mechanically stressful environments and, consequently, their plasma membranes are frequently disrupted. Survival requires that the cell rapidly repair or reseal the disruption. Rapid resealing is an active and complex structural modification that employs endomembrane as its primary building block, and cytoskeletal and membrane fusion proteins as its catalysts. Endomembrane is delivered to the damaged plasma membrane through exocytosis, a ubiquitous Ca2+-triggered response to disruption. Tissue and cell level architecture prevent disruptions from occurring, either by shielding cells from damaging levels of force, or, when this is not possible, by promoting safe force transmission through the plasma membrane via protein-based cables and linkages. Prevention of disruption also can be a dynamic cell or tissue level adaptation triggered when a damaging level of mechanical stress is imposed. Disease results from failure of either the preventive or resealing mechanisms.

Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayse Kart

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Socio-demographic Data Form and CCQ Turkish version were administered to participants. Reliability of CCQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach%u2019s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation were used for factor analysis. Results: Fifty-five point six percent (n=139 of the participants were female and fourty-four point four percent (n=111 were male. Internal consistency of the questionnaire was calculated 0.920 by Cronbach alpha. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaire were found as 0.917 and 0.832. Again spearmen-brown coefficient was found as 0.875 by the same analysis. Factor analysis revealed five basic factors. These five factors explained %66.2 of the total variance. Discussion: The results of this study show that the Turkish version of CCQ is a reliable and valid scale.

Double Photoionization Near Threshold

Science.gov (United States)

Wehlitz, Ralf

2007-01-01

The threshold region of the double-photoionization cross section is of particular interest because both ejected electrons move slowly in the Coulomb field of the residual ion. Near threshold both electrons have time to interact with each other and with the residual ion. Also, different theoretical models compete to describe the double-photoionization cross section in the threshold region. We have investigated that cross section for lithium and beryllium and have analyzed our data with respect to the latest results in the Coulomb-dipole theory. We find that our data support the idea of a Coulomb-dipole interaction.

From Digital Disruption to Business Model Scalability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Lund, Morten; Thomsen, Peter Poulsen

2017-01-01

This article discusses the terms disruption, digital disruption, business models and business model scalability. It illustrates how managers should be using these terms for the benefit of their business by developing business models capable of achieving exponentially increasing returns to scale...... will seldom lead to business model scalability capable of competing with digital disruption(s)....... as a response to digital disruption. A series of case studies illustrate that besides frequent existing messages in the business literature relating to the importance of creating agile businesses, both in growing and declining economies, as well as hard to copy value propositions or value propositions that take...

β limit disruptions in the TFTR tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredrickson, E.D.; McGuire, K.; Janos, A.; Bell, M.; Budny, R.V.; Bush, C.E.; Manickam, J.; Mynick, H.; Nazikian, R.; Taylor, G.

1994-11-01

A disruptive β limit (β = plasma pressure/magnetic pressure) is observed in high performance plasmas in TFTR. The MHD character of these disruptions differs substantially from the disruptions in high density plasmas (density limit disruptions) on TFTR. The high β disruptions can occur with less than a milliseconds warning in the form of a fast growing precursor. The precursor appears to be an external kink or internal (m,n)=(1,1) kink strongly coupled through finite β effects and toroidal terms to higher m components. It does not have the open-quote cold bubble close-quote structure found in density limit disruptions. There is also no evidence for a change in the internal inductance, i.e., a major reconnection of the flux, at the time of the thermal quench

3rd Annual Disruptive Technology Conference

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-07

Panel -- The Warfighter’s Perspective The Impact of Disruptive Technologies on Joint Warfighting MG Michael Vane, USA, Vice Director for Force...Structure, Resources & Assessment, Joint Staff, J-8 Panel -- Perspectives of Change: Identifying the Emerging Commercial Disruptive Technologies Decision...Mark Lucas, Board Member OSGeo, RadiantBlue Technologies Panel -- The Search for Disruptive Technologies - a “Blue Force” Multiplier Advanced

ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

2013-01-01

origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1981-03-21

The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Wolski

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

Nuclear power station with nuclear reactor accommodated largely secure against catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, O.

1987-01-01

If the nuclear reactor is installed underground near the power station unit, then danger to the environment due to radiation contamination can be largely or nearly completely prevented by a covering of constant thickness or by a covering which can be installed by a catastrophic accident. The extinguishing of a burning reactor is also relatively simple for a reactor accommodated in a pit. The above-mentioned measures can be used individually or combined. (orig./HP) [de

Catastrophizing, depression, and pain: correlation with and influence on quality of life and health - a study of chronic whiplash-associated disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Börsbo, Björn; Peolsson, Michael; Gerdle, Björn

2008-07-01

The aims of this study were: (i) to classify subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing, and investigate distribution in a group of patients with chronic whiplash-associated disorders; and (ii) to investigate how these subgroups were distributed and inter-related multivariately with respect to consequences such as health and quality of life outcome measures. Descriptive cross-sectional study. A total of 275 consecutive chronic pain patients with whiplash-associated disorders who were referred to a university hospital. The following data were obtained by means of self-report questionnaires: pain intensity in neck and shoulders, background history, Beck Depression Inventory, the catastrophizing scale of Coping Strategy Questionnaire, Life Satisfaction Checklist, the SF-36 Health Survey, and the EuroQol. Principal component analysis was used to recognize subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing. These subgroups have specific characteristics according to perceived health and quality of life, and the degree of depression appears to be the most important influencing factor. From a clinical point of view, these findings indicate that it is important to assess patients for intensity of pain, depression, and catastrophizing when planning a rehabilitation programme. Such an evaluation will help individualize therapy and intervention techniques so as to optimize the efficiency of the programme.

Significance of large Neptune-crossing objects for terrestrial catastrophism

Science.gov (United States)

Steel, D.

2014-07-01

Over the past few decades a substantial number of objects have been discovered on orbits beyond Neptune (i.e. transneptunian objects, in various sub-classes), crossing Neptune's orbit (here: the Neptune-crossers of interest), and also others crossing the orbits of any or all of the jovian planets (i.e. Centaurs). These range in size from tens of kilometres across to hundreds of kilometres and more. Although formally classified as minor planets/asteroids, plus a few dwarf planets, the physical reality of these objects is that they are giant comets. That is, they seem to be composed largely of ices and if they were to enter the inner solar system then they would demonstrate the commonly-observed behaviour of comets such as outgassing, and the formation of ion and dust tails. Commonly-observed cometary behaviour, however, also includes fragmentation events and sometimes complete disintegration for no apparent cause (such as tidal disruption or thermal stresses). One might therefore wonder what the implications would be for life on Earth and terrestrial catastrophism if and when one of these objects, say 100 to 500 kilometres in size, dropped into a short-period orbit with perihelion distance (q) less than 1 au; or even q ˜ 5 au, given what Jupiter's gravity might do to it. How often might such events occur? One way to address that question would be to conduct numerical integrations of suitable test orbits and identify how often small-q orbits result, but this comes up against the problem of identifying very-infrequent events (with annual probabilities per object perhaps of order 10^{-12}-10^{-10}. For example, Emel'yanenko et al. [1] recently followed test orbits for approximately 5 × 10^{14} particle-years (8,925 objects with 200 clones of each, for 300 Myr) but because these were selected on the basis of initial values of q only below 36 (rather than ˜30) au many were not immediately Neptune-crossers; however, many test particles did eventually migrate into small

The Effects of Disruption on Strategic Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Drejer, Anders

2017-01-01

There is a lot of interest in Disruption these days even though the concept itself is still under formation. Disruption can be traced back to the idea of disruptive technological change and the late 1990s but has reemerged in the public eye in current years under guises such as Big Data......, Digitalization, Globalization and much more. Furthermore, the effects of disruption are now being felt by organizations and industries all over the world. In this paper, we will try to outline and illustrate some of those effects using the case-study of an international, Danish, SME. The case company has been...... forced to face some challenges caused by disruption and in the process of doing so has changed its strategy process significantly towards a more learning based approach to strategic management. Keywords: disruption; case- study; SME; strategy process....

Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

1977-05-01

This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baarli, J.

1989-01-01

The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

Cognitive-emotional sensitization contributes to wind-up-like pain in phantom limb pain patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vase, Lene; Nikolajsen, Lone; Christensen, Bente

2011-01-01

). Catastrophizing accounted for 35% of the variance in phantom limb pain (p=0.001) independently of anxiety and depression. Catastrophizing was also positively associated with wind-up-like pain in non-medicated patients (p=0.015), but not to pain thresholds. These findings suggest that cognitive-emotional...

Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kei Ito.

1989-08-01

Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

Small-threshold behaviour of two-loop self-energy diagrams: two-particle thresholds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berends, F.A.; Davydychev, A.I.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ., Moscow; Smirnov, V.A.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ., Moscow

1996-01-01

The behaviour of two-loop two-point diagrams at non-zero thresholds corresponding to two-particle cuts is analyzed. The masses involved in a cut and the external momentum are assumed to be small as compared to some of the other masses of the diagram. By employing general formulae of asymptotic expansions of Feynman diagrams in momenta and masses, we construct an algorithm to derive analytic approximations to the diagrams. In such a way, we calculate several first coefficients of the expansion. Since no conditions on relative values of the small masses and the external momentum are imposed, the threshold irregularities are described analytically. Numerical examples, using diagrams occurring in the standard model, illustrate the convergence of the expansion below the first large threshold. (orig.)

Tropical Andean ecosystems and the need to keep warming limits below a +1.5°C threshold

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Carrascal, D.; Herzog, S. K.; Guitierrez Lagoueyte, M. E.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Cuevas-Moreno, J.; del Valle, J. I.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Herrera, D. A.; Martínez, R.

2017-12-01

Long-term climate change and rapid land-use change are synergistically threatening the integrity and functioning of tropical Andean ecosystems. The main goal of our research was to integrate climate change projections, biodiversity data and anthropogenically driven ecosystem disruption assessments to quantify the vulnerability of Andean ecosystems and species to global change at a local scale. We merged discernible trends in local quality-controlled weather station data with reanalysis data, as well as with historical and prospective simulation outputs of five well-known GCMs to assess a long-term context for the analysis of climate change exposure (temperature severity intervals). Individual, medium-term, multi-member GCM simulations included: altitude-corrected 2046-2065 (IPCC-AR4) climate change scenarios for the A1B emission scenario; and spatially-downscaled 2040-2069 (IPCC-AR5) projections for the RCP4.5. Previous studies reported mean annual temperature anomaly intervals that resulted in exceedingly high thresholds: the lowest severity interval ( +2.71°C). The least severe interval extended up to the threshold widely recognized as `dangerous' climate change, thereby leading to an underestimation of the true vulnerability of Andean species. Our analyses suggest that temperature anomalies for the full extent of the tropical Andes will likely range from low ( +2.61°C), exceeding the threshold of 'natural' climate variability (+1.78°C). Our results suggest that most species that were used as proxies of ecosystem vulnerabilities will likely experience overall low-to-medium-to-high temperature increases. Since many of them have potentially high sensitivity to such long-term changes, Andean species will likely experience greatly increases in vulnerability. The already-disrupted Andean ecosystems will suffer a further climatic stress, which will worsen the well-known detrimental synergies between climate and land-use changes. There is an imperative need to

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2010-09-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

2010-01-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

2013-11-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

Social Anxiety, Pain Catastrophizing and Return-To-Work Self-Efficacy in chronic pain: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomtén, Johanna; Boersma, Katja; Flink, Ida; Tillfors, Maria

2016-04-01

Returning to work after periods of sick-leave due to chronic pain problems, involve a number of situations of interpersonal nature (e.g. meeting supervisors/insurance companies to adapt work setting to present functional level, receive help from colleagues, express pain, etc.). Since chronic pain has shown co-morbidity with social anxiety, it is of interest to investigate restraining factors in return to work among chronic pain sufferers from a social perspective. Catastrophizing is identified in both pain and social anxiety as a mechanism that might fuel a continuous bias in how situations are perceived (threat) and by hindering the development of functional behavior strategies. The presence of social anxiety in chronic pain patients might be seen as a stressor that limits the individuals' ability to effectively communicate pain-related needs to colleagues, and/or employers and therefore act as a hindering factor in return-to-work. Hence, the overall aim of this study was to examine the relationship between social anxiety, pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs to the work environment in a clinical pain population. The study employed a cross-sectional design and involved 247 individuals with chronic pain (82.3% women; M age =44 years). Measures included the Pain catastrophizing Scale, the Social Phobia Screening Questionnaire and the communication of pain-related needs-subscale of the Return-To-Work Self-efficacy Questionnaire. Analyzes were run to examine whether social anxiety moderated the relation between pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs while controlling for pain severity/interference and sick leave. Social anxiety and pain catastrophizing correlated positively with each other and negatively with perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs. No support was obtained for a moderating effect of social anxiety. However, social anxiety and pain interference were each

Towards a Framework of Digital Platform Disruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazan, Erol; Tan, Chee-Wee; Lim, Eric T. K.

2014-01-01

Digital platforms are disruptive information technology (IT) artifacts that erode conventional business logic associated with traditional market structures. This paper presents a framework for examining the disruptive potential of digital platforms whereby we postulate that the strategic interplay...... digital platforms purposely decouple platform layers, to foster open innovation and accelerate market disruption. This paper therefore represents a first concrete step aimed at unravelling the disruptive potential of digital platforms....... of governance regimes and platform layers is deterministic of whether disruptive derivatives are permitted to flourish. This framework has been employed in a comparative case study between centralized (i.e., PayPal) and decentralized (i.e., Coinkite) digital payment platforms to illustrate its applicability...

Family Disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

... Spread the Word Shop AAP Find a Pediatrician Family Life Medical Home Family Dynamics Adoption & Foster Care ... Life Listen Español Text Size Email Print Share Family Disruptions Page Content Article Body No matter how ...

Modeling subjective well-being in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability: the role of pain control and pain catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Furrer, Angela; Michel, Gisela; Terrill, Alexandra L; Jensen, Mark P; Müller, Rachel

2017-10-23

To investigate the associations between subjective well-being and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression in individuals with physical disabilities. We hypothesized that (1) pain control and (2) pain catastrophizing mediate the effects of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. Analyses of cross-sectional data from 96 individuals diagnosed with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disease, or post-polio syndrome, with average pain intensity of ≥4 (0-10) on at least half the days in the past month. Two models tested study hypotheses using structural equation. Both models showed acceptable model fit. Pain catastrophizing significantly mediated the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity and pain interference, but not on depression. Pain control did not significantly mediate the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, or depression. Path coefficients showed significant direct effects of subjective well-being on pain control (β = 0.39), pain catastrophizing (β = -0.61), pain interference (β = -0.48; -0.42), and depression (β = -0.75; -0.78). This study supports the potential of enhancing subjective well-being and lowering pain catastrophizing for reducing pain intensity, pain interference, and depressive symptoms in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability. The findings indicate that true experiments to test for causal associations are warranted. Implications for rehabilitation The majority of individuals with physical disabilities report having persistent moderate-to-severe pain that may negatively limit daily activities and quality of life. The present cross-sectional study indicates that individuals who reported greater subjective well-being showed significantly lower pain intensity via the mediating effect of lower pain catastrophizing. Since sample size and respective power are low, these findings should be taken as first

Disruption modeling in support of ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandyopadhyay, I.

2015-01-01

Plasma current disruptions and Vertical Displacement Events (VDEs) are one of the major concerns in any tokamak as they lead to large electromagnetic forces to tokamak first wall components and vacuum vessel. Their occurrence also means disruption to steady state operations of tokamaks. Thus future fusion reactors like ITER must ensure that disruptions and VDEs are minimized. However, since there is still finite probability of their occurrence, one must be able to characterize disruptions and VDEs and able to predict, for example, the plasma current quench time and halo current amplitude, which mainly determine the magnitude of the electromagnetic forces. There is a concerted effort globally to understand and predict plasma and halo current evolution during disruption in tokamaks through MHD simulations. Even though Disruption and VDEs are often 3D MHD perturbations in nature, presently they are mostly simulated using 2D axisymmetric MHD codes like the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and DINA. These codes are also extensively benchmarked against experimental data in present day tokamaks to improve these models and their ability to predict these events in ITER. More detailed 3D models like M3D are only recently being developed, but they are yet to be benchmarked against experiments, as also they are massively computationally exhaustive