Sample records for catastrophe theory

  1. Extension of catastrophe theory to Dulac unfoldings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, HW; Naudot, [No Value; Roussarie, R; Dumortier, F; Broer, H; Mawhin, J; Vanderbauwhede, A; Lunel, SV


    We consider a perturbation of a Hamiltonian planar vector field. The bifurcation set of limit cycles is studied. If the vector field is defined in an annulus, limit cycles are in one to one correspondence to the zeros of a polynomial. Catastrophe theory is relevant for the study of the ensuing bifur

  2. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server


    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  3. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski


    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  4. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  5. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change. (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis


    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  6. A catastrophe theory model of the conflict helix, with tests. (United States)

    Rummel, R J


    Macro social field theory has undergone extensive development and testing since the 1960s. One of these has been the articulation of an appropriate conceptual micro model--called the conflict helix--for understanding the process from conflict to cooperation and vice versa. Conflict and cooperation are viewed as distinct equilibria of forces in a social field; the movement between these equilibria is a jump, energized by a gap between social expectations and power, and triggered by some minor event. Quite independently, there also has been much recent application of catastrophe theory to social behavior, but usually without a clear substantive theory and lacking empirical testing. This paper uses catastrophe theory--namely, the butterfly model--mathematically to structure the conflict helix. The social field framework and helix provide the substantive interpretation for the catastrophe theory; and catastrophe theory provides a suitable mathematical model for the conflict helix. The model is tested on the annual conflict and cooperation between India and Pakistan, 1948 to 1973. The results are generally positive and encouraging.

  7. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory. (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C


    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  8. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.


    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and c

  9. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.


    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the in flence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and t

  10. Application of Catastrophe Theory in 3D Seismic Data Interpretation of Coal Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Mu-hua; YANG Wen-qiang; CUI Hui-xia


    In order to detect fault exactly and quickly, cusp catastrophe theory is used to interpret 3D coal seismic data in this paper. By establishing a cusp model, seismic signal is transformed into standard form of cusp catastrophe and catastrophe parameters, including time-domain catastrophe potential, time-domain catastrophe time, frequency-domain catastrophe potential and frequency- domain degree, are calculated. Catastrophe theory is used in 3D seismic structural interpretation in coal mine. The results show that the position of abnormality of the catastrophe parameter profile or curve is related to the location of fault, and the cusp catastrophe theory is effective to automatically pick up geology information and improve the interpretation precision in 3D seismic data.

  11. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios


    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  12. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张亚平; 裴玉龙


    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  13. Insights into Participants' Behaviours in Educational Games, Simulations and Workshops: A Catastrophe Theory Application to Motivation. (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia


    Develops models for participants' behaviors in games, simulations, and workshops based on Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's two-factor theory of motivation. Examples are given of how these models can be used, both for describing and understanding the behaviors of individuals, and for eliciting insights into why participants behave as they do. (11…


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; ZHANG Yong; YU Guang-ming


    Mechanism of circular tunnel rockburst is that, when the carrying capacity of the centralized zone of plastic deformation in limiting state reduces, the comparatively intact part in rock mass unloads by way of elasticity; rockburst occurs immediately when the elastic energy released by the comparatively intact part exceeds the energy dissipated by plastic deformation. The equivalent strain was taken as a state variable to establish a catastrophe model of tunnel rockburst, and the computation expression of the earthquake energy released by tunnel rockburst was given. The analysis shows that, the conditions of rockburst occurrence are relative to rock's ratio of elastic modulus to descendent modulus and crack growth degree of rocks; to rock mass with specific rockburst tendency, there exists a corresponding critical depth of softened zone, and rockburst occurs when the depth of softened zone reaches.

  15. On the foreshocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    Guglielmi, A V; Sobisevich, L E; Lavrov, I P


    It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers that cause the critical transitions. The analysis shows a sharp increase of foreshock activity 3 h before the mainshock. This result is reminiscent of the well-known activation of the ULF magnetic precursors of earthquakes. Furthermore, we found that the characteristic frequency of foreshock sequence decreases a few hours before the mainshock, which is consistent with a prediction of the catastrophe theory. Finally, the analysis testifies that the strong foreshocks seems may be triggers of mainshocks. The idea is that the surface waves propagating outwards from the foreshock return back to the vicinity of the epicenter after having made a complete revolution around the Earth and induce there the mainshock.

  16. The nonlinear dynamical hypothesis in science education problem solving: a catastrophe theory approach. (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios


    The current study tests the nonlinear dynamical hypothesis in science education problem solving by applying catastrophe theory. Within the neo-Piagetian framework a cusp catastrophe model is proposed, which accounts for discontinuities in students' performance as a function of two controls: the functional M-capacity as asymmetry and the degree of field dependence/independence as bifurcation. The two controls have functional relation with two opponent processes, the processing of relevant information and the inhibitory process of dis-embedding irrelevant information respectively. Data from achievement scores of freshmen at a technological college were measured at two points in time, and were analyzed using dynamic difference equations and statistical regression techniques. The cusp catastrophe model proved superior (R(2)=0.77) comparing to the pre-post linear counterpart (R(2)=0.46). Besides the empirical evidence, theoretical analyses are provided, which attempt to build bridges between NDS-theory concepts and science education problem solving and to neo-Piagetian theories as well. This study sets a framework for the application of catastrophe theory in education.

  17. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William


    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  18. Evaluation of the propensity for coal spontaneous combustion based on catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yu-tao; ZHANG Xi-chen; TIEN Jerry C; LI Ya-qing


    Generally,different prevention measures should be taken according to spontaneous combustion propensities.The current methods to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion,such as chromatographic method of oxygen adsorption,oxidation kinetics method and activation energy method,are mostly affected by human factors.Their boundaries among different classes of propensities were all established by subjective judgments.A new evaluation method using catastrophe theory is introduced.This method can accurately depict the process of coal spontaneous combustion and the evaluation index,"catastrophe temperature",be obtained based on the model.In terms of catastrophe temperature,the spontaneous combustion propensity of different coals can be sequenced.Experimental data indicate that this method is appropriate to describe the spontaneous combustion process and to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion.

  19. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos


    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  20. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-Ramos, J.E., E-mail: [Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva (Spain); Unidad Asociada de la Universidad de Huelva al IEM (CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Arias, J.M., E-mail: [Departamento de Física Atómica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Sevilla, Apdo 1065, 41080 Sevilla (Spain); Unidad Asociada de la Universidad de Sevilla al IEM (CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Dukelsky, J., E-mail: [Instituto de Estructura de la Materia, CSIC, Serrano 123, 28006 Madrid (Spain)


    We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2). Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  1. Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory (United States)

    You, W. J.; Zhang, Y. L.


    Huaihe River is one of the seven largest rivers in China, in which floods occurred frequently. Disasters cause huge casualties and property losses to the basin, and also make it famous for high social vulnerability to floods. Based on the latest social-economic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed, and Catastrophe theory method was used in the assessment process. The conclusion shows that social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. It is important to make further development of social vulnerability, which will play a positive role in disaster prevention, improvement of comprehensive ability to respond to disasters.

  2. Understanding reaction mechanisms in organic chemistry from catastrophe theory applied to the electron localization function topology. (United States)

    Polo, Victor; Andres, Juan; Berski, Slawomir; Domingo, Luis R; Silvi, Bernard


    Thom's catastrophe theory applied to the evolution of the topology of the electron localization function (ELF) gradient field constitutes a way to rationalize the reorganization of electron pairing and a powerful tool for the unambiguous determination of the molecular mechanisms of a given chemical reaction. The identification of the turning points connecting the ELF structural stability domains along the reaction pathway allows a rigorous characterization of the sequence of electron pair rearrangements taking place during a chemical transformation, such as multiple bond forming/breaking processes, ring closure processes, creation/annihilation of lone pairs, transformations of C-C multiple bonds into single ones. The reaction mechanism of some relevant organic reactions: Diels-Alder, 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition and Cope rearrangement are reviewed to illustrate the potential of the present approach.

  3. Risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in chemical industrial parks based on catastrophe theory. (United States)

    Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu


    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs.

  4. Cosmic Catastrophes (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig


    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  5. Taking a geometric look at the socio-political functioning schemes of the living. Catastrophe theory and theoretical sociology. (United States)

    Morier, Clément


    The aim of this communication is to consider morphological processes in sociology, mainly through the study of the stability of forms of sociality. At the same time, it aims to study the regulation of constraints, related to an increasingly conflictual environment, through political organization. We use a specific theoretical framework: the catastrophe theory developed by René Thom in topology, further developed by Claude Bruter from a physics point of view, and reworked by Jacques Viret in biology. The idea is to show the existence of archetypal processes organizing social forms.

  6. Research on the Selection Strategy of Green Building Parts Supplier Based on the Catastrophe Theory and Kent Index Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Luo


    Full Text Available At present, the green building and housing industrialization are two mainstream directions in the real estate industry. The production of green building parts which combines green building and housing industrialization, two concepts, is to be vigorously developed. The key of quality assurance in the assembly project is choosing reliable and proper green building parts suppliers. This paper analyzes the inherent requirements of the green building, combined with the characteristics of the housing industrialization, and puts forward an evaluation index system of supplier selection for green building parts, which includes product index, enterprise index, green development index, and cooperation ability index. To reduce the influence of subjective factors, the improved method which merges Kent index method and catastrophe theory is applied to the green building parts supplier selection and evaluation. This paper takes the selection of the unit bathroom suppliers as an example, uses the improved model to calculate and analyze the data of each supplier, and finally selects the optimal supplier. With combination of the Kent index and the catastrophe theory, the result shows that it can effectively reduce the subjectivity of the evaluation and provide a basis for the selection of the green building parts suppliers.

  7. Classification of inflationary Einstein-scalar-field-models via catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    Kusmartsev, F V; Obukhov, N; Schunck, E; Kusmartsev, V; Mielke, W; Obukhov, N; Schunck, E


    Various scenarios of the initial inflation of the universe are distinguished by the choice of a scalar field {\\em potential} U(\\phi) which simulates a {\\it temporarily} non--vanishing {\\em cosmological term}. Our new method, which involves a reparametrization in terms of the Hubble expansion parameter H, provides a classification of allowed inflationary potentials and of the stability of the critical points. It is broad enough to embody all known {\\it exact} solutions involving one scalar field as special cases. Inflation corresponds to the evolution of critical points of some catastrophe manifold. The coalescence of its nondegenerate critical points with the creation of a degenerate critical point corresponds the reheating phase of the universe. This is illustrated by several examples.

  8. Destabilization analysis of overlapping underground chambers induced by blasting vibration with catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chang-bin; XU Guo-yuan; ZUO Yu-jun


    According to the main characters of overlapping underground chambers, the roof (floor) of two adjacent underground chambers is simplified to the mechanical model that is the beam with build-in ends. And vibration load due to blasting is simplified to harmonic wave. The catastrophic model of double cusp for underground chambers destabilization induced by blasting vibration has been established under the circumstances of considering deadweight of the beam, and the condition of destabilization has been worked out. The critical safety thickness of the roof (floor) of underground chambers has been confirmed according to the destabilization condition. The influence of amplitude and frequency of blasting vibration load on the critical safety thickness has been analyzed, and the quantitative relation between velocity, frequency of blasting vibration and critical safety thickness has been determined. Research results show that the destabilization of underground chambers is not only dependent on the amplitude and frequency of blasting vibration load, but also related to deadweight load and intrinsic attribute. It is accordant to testing results and some related latest research results of blasting seismic effect. With increasing amplitude, the critical safety thickness of underground chambers decreases gradually. And the possibility of underground chambers destabilization increases. When the frequency of blasting vibration is equal to or very close to the frequency of beam, resonance effect will take place in the system. Then the critical safety thickness will turn to zero, underground chambers will be damaged severely, and its loading capacity will lose on the whole.

  9. Avoiding the Goldstone Boson Catastrophe in general renormalisable field theories at two loops

    CERN Document Server

    Braathen, Johannes


    We show how the infra-red divergences associated to Goldstone bosons in the minimum condition of the two-loop Landau-gauge effective potential can be avoided in general field theories. This extends the resummation formalism recently developed for the Standard Model and the MSSM, and we give compact, infra-red finite expressions in closed form for the tadpole equations. We also show that the results at this loop order are equivalent to (and are most easily obtained by) imposing an "on-shell" condition for the Goldstone bosons. Moreover, we extend the approach to show how the infra-red divergences in the calculation of the masses of neutral scalars (such as the Higgs boson) can be eliminated. For the mass computation, we specialise to the gaugeless limit and extend the effective potential computation to allow the masses to be determined without needing to solve differential equations for the loop functions -- opening the door to fast, infra-red safe determinations of the Higgs mass in general theories.

  10. Catastrophizing and perceived partner responses to pain. (United States)

    Boothby, Jennifer L; Thorn, Beverly E; Overduin, Lorraine Y; Ward, L Charles


    This study examined the relationship between catastrophizing and patient-perceived partner responses to pain behaviors. The Catastrophizing subscale of the Cognitive Coping Strategy Inventory and the West Haven-Yale Multidimensional Pain Inventory were completed by 62 adult chronic pain patients. Consistent with past research, catastrophizing and patient-perceived solicitous partner behaviors were positively correlated with negative pain outcomes. The communal coping theory of catastrophizing suggests that catastrophizing might be undertaken to solicit support and empathy from others. However, catastrophizing was not related to perceived solicitous partner behavior in this study. Rather, catastrophizing was associated with perceived punishing partner responses. Implications are that catastrophizing and perceived solicitous partner behaviors are independently associated with pain and that catastrophizing may not be reinforced by empathy from significant others.

  11. Bader's topological analysis of the electron density in the pressure-induced phase transitions/amorphization in α-quartz from the catastrophe theory viewpoint (United States)

    Merli, Marcello; Sciascia, Luciana


    In this work, the Bader's topological analysis of the electron density, coupled with Thom's catastrophe theory, was used to characterize the pressure-induced transformations in α-quartz. In particular, ab initio calculations of the α-quartz structures in the range 0-105 Gpa have been performed at the HF/DFT exchange-correlation terms level, using Hamiltonians based on a WC1LYP hybrid scheme. The electron densities calculated throughout the ab initio wave functions have been analysed by means of the Bader's theory, seeking for some catastrophic mechanism in the sense of Thom's theory. The analysis mainly showed that there is a typical fold catastrophe feature involving an O-O interaction at the quartz-coesite transition pressure, while the amorphization of α-quartz is coincident with an average distribution of the gradient field of the electron density around the oxygen atom which is typically observed in the free atoms. This approach is addressed to depict a phase transition from a novel viewpoint, particularly useful in predicting the stability of a compound at extreme conditions, especially in the absence of experimental data.

  12. Olefin epoxidation by molybdenum peroxo compound: molecular mechanism characterized by the electron localization function and catastrophe theory. (United States)

    Berski, Slawomir; Sensato, Fabrício R; Polo, Victor; Andrés, Juan; Safont, V S


    The oxygen atom transfer reaction from the Mimoun-type complex MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) to ethylene C(2)H(4) affording oxirane C(2)H(4)O has been investigated within the framework of the Bonding Evolution Theory in which the corresponding molecular mechanism is characterized by the topological analysis of the electron localization function (ELF) and Thom's catastrophe theory (CT). Topological analysis of ELF and electron density analysis reveals that all Mo-O bonds in MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) and MoO(2)(η(2)-O(2))OPH(3) belong to closed-shell type interactions though negative values of total energy densities E(e)(r(BCP)) imply some covalent contribution. The peroxo O(i)-O(j) bonds are characterized as charge-shift or protocovalent species in which pairs of monosynaptic basins V(3)(O(i)), V(3)(O(j)) with a small electron population of ~0.25e each, are localized between core basins C(O(i)), C(O(j)). The oxygen transfer reaction from molybdenum diperoxo complex MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) to C(2)H(4) system can be described by the following consecutive chemical events: (a) protocovalent peroxo O(2)-O(1) bond breaking, (b) reduction of the double C(1)=C(2) bond to single C(1)-C(2) bond in ethylene, (c) displacement of oxygen O(1) with two nonbonding basins, V(i=1,2)(O(1)), (d) increase of a number of the nonbonding basins to three (V(i=1,2,4)(O(1))); (e) reorganization and reduction in the number of nonbonding basis to two basins (V(i=1,4)(O(1))) resembling the ELF-topology of the nonbonding electron density in oxirane, (e) formation of the first O(1)-C(2) bond in oxirane, (f) C(2)-O(1)-C(2) ring closure, (g) formation of singular nonbonding basin V(O(2)) in new Mo=O(2) bond. The oxygen atom is transferred as an anionic moiety carrying a rather small electronic charge ranging from 0.5 to 0.7e.

  13. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)


    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  14. Cosmic Rays and Solar Insolation as the Main Control Parameters of the Catastrophe Theory of Climatic Response to Orbital Variations


    V. D. Rusov; Glushkov, A. V.; Vaschenko, V. N.; Pavlovich, V. N.; Zelentsova, T. N.; Mihalus, O. T.; Tarasov, V. A.; Saranuk, D. N.


    The energy-balance model of global climate, which is taking into account a nontrivial role of solar and galactic protons, is presented. The model is described by the equation of fold catastrophe relative to increment of temperature, where the variation of a solar insolation and cosmic rays are control parameters. It is shown that the bifurcation equation of the model describes one of two stable states of the climate system. The solution of this equation exhibits the property of the determined...

  15. Electronic fluxes during Diels-Alder reactions involving 1,2-benzoquinones: mechanistic insights from the analysis of electron localization function and catastrophe theory. (United States)

    González-Navarrete, Patricio; Domingo, Luis R; Andrés, Juan; Berski, Slawomir; Silvi, Bernard


    By means of the joint use of electron localization function (ELF) and Thom's catastrophe theory, a theoretical analysis of the energy profile for the hetero-Diels-Alder reaction of 4-methoxy-1,2-benzoquinone 1 and methoxyethylene 2 has been carried out. The 12 different structural stability domains obtained by the bonding evolution theory have been identified as well as the bifurcation catastrophes (fold and cusp) responsible for the changes in the topology of the system. This analysis permits finding a relationship between the ELF topology and the evolution of the bond breaking/forming processes and electron pair rearrangements through the reaction progress in terms of the different ways of pairing up the electrons. The reaction mechanism corresponds to an asynchronous electronic flux; first, the O1-C5 bond is formed by the nucleophilic attack of the C5 carbon of the electron rich ethylene 2 on the most electrophilically activated carbonyl O1 oxygen of 1, and once the σ bond has been completed, the formation process of the second O4C6 bond takes place. In addition, the values of the local electrophilicity and local nucleophilcity indices in the framework of conceptual density functional theory accounts for the asychronicity of the process as well as for the observed regioselectivity.

  16. Catastrophe mechanism & classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅰ) --Fold catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    The mechanism of discontinuity behavior has important significance in the study of thermal science,such as fire,combustion,explosion and heat transfer.This sort of discontinuity behavior and the catastrophe caused by system nonlinearity may be equivalently classified according to the catastrophe model promulgated by catastrophe theory.Under the conditions of uniform temperature and thermal isolation,the self-ignition behavior of a Semenov System can be viewed as a result of the fold catastrophe of the system.

  17. Volcanic Catastrophes (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.


    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  18. Pricing for Catastrophe Bonds Based on Expected-value Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen


    Full Text Available As the catastrophes cannot be avoided and result in huge economic losses, therefore the compensation issue for catastrophe losses become an important research topic. Catastrophe bonds can effectively disperse the catastrophe risks which mainly undertaken by the government and the insurance companies currently and focus on capital more effectively in broad capital market, therefore to be an ideal catastrophe securities product. This study adopts Expectancy Theory to supplement and improve the pricing of catastrophe bonds based on Value Theory. A model of expected utility is established to determine the conditions of the expected revenue R of catastrophe bonds. The pricing model of the value function is used to get the psychological value of R,U (R-R‾, for catastrophe bonds. Finally, the psychological value is improved by the value according to expected utility and this can more accurately evaluate catastrophe bonds at a reasonable price. This research can provide decision-making for the pricing of catastrophe bonds.

  19. The Catastrophe Theory as a Conceptual and Methodological Basis for Assessing the Stability of Socio-Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergienko Olena A.


    Full Text Available There has been proposed a conceptual approach to studying the instability of main indicators of socio-economic development of Ukraine’s economy aimed at solving problems of assessment, analysis and forecasting the state of territorial systems and providing for the implementation of three major steps: assessment of the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of territorial development and the extent of their relationship, building catastrophe models of dynamics of socio-economic indicators of territorial development, analysis of instability of socio-economic systems. A study of the development dynamics of Ukraine’s economy in terms of the most significant macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of industrial production, construction, employment, and demographic processes have been carried out. There revealed the instability and non-linearity of their relationship, occurrence of bifurcations and a high probability of catastrophes in the following research areas: dependence of the GDP on the volume of construction works, which makes it possible to determine the presence of the construction crisis in the economy; dependence of the GDP on the level of migration and natural increase in the population of Ukraine, which presents objective information about the demographic crisis in the country. The analytical results obtained can serve a basis for of the concept of regional policy transformation, implementation of investment and strategic programs aimed at stimulating investment of progressive structural changes in the regional and territorial perspective and crisis management.

  20. Catastrophic Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Downes, Sean; Sinha, Kuver


    We study inflection point inflation using Singularity Theory, which relates degenerate critical points of functions to their local behavior. This approach illuminates universal features of small-field models and gives analytic control over parametrized families of scalar potentials near inflationary solutions. The behavior of the scalar potential is tied to the number of physical input parameters, which determines a set of universality classes. Within these classes, we obtain universal scaling relations for density perturbations and the scale of inflation. In specific models, we show that the scale of supersymmetry breaking also possesses scaling behavior. We illustrate this general structure with a specific example: the Racetrack Inflation model in type IIB string theory, with the inflaton being the real part of the K\\"ahler modulus, and the input parameters being flux dependent quantities that appear in the 4D, N=1 superpotential.

  1. Fracto—emissions in Catastrophic Cleavage Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HonglaiTAN; WeiYANG


    Fracto-emissions accompanying crack propagation are observed in the recent experiments.The energy impulses during and after fracture stimulate the fracto-emissions.Model concerning atomic scale cleavage processes is proposed to formulate a catastrophic fracure theory relevant to these phenomena.A criterion for catastrophic jump of the cleavage potential is applied to representative crystals.

  2. Multiple Stable States and Catastrophic Shifts in Coastal Wetlands: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in Validating Theory Using Remote Sensing and Other Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevan B. Moffett


    Full Text Available Multiple stable states are established in coastal tidal wetlands (marshes, mangroves, deltas, seagrasses by ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological feedbacks. Catastrophic shifts between states can be induced by gradual environmental change or by disturbance events. These feedbacks and outcomes are key to the sustainability and resilience of vegetated coastlines, especially as modulated by human activity, sea level rise, and climate change. Whereas multiple stable state theory has been invoked to model salt marsh responses to sediment supply and sea level change, there has been comparatively little empirical verification of the theory for salt marshes or other coastal wetlands. Especially lacking is long-term evidence documenting if or how stable states are established and maintained at ecosystem scales. Laboratory and field-plot studies are informative, but of necessarily limited spatial and temporal scope. For the purposes of long-term, coastal-scale monitoring, remote sensing is the best viable option. This review summarizes the above topics and highlights the emerging promise and challenges of using remote sensing-based analyses to validate coastal wetland dynamic state theories. This significant opportunity is further framed by a proposed list of scientific advances needed to more thoroughly develop the field.

  3. 基于突变理论的煤层不连续性检测技术%Technology for detection of coal seam discontinuity based on catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于鹏飞; 董守华; 杨小慧; 薛海飞; 程彦


    通过突变理论的尖点突变模型及分析,将地震信号转化为尖点突变的标准形式.在时间域、频域计算突跳势、突跳时间等突跳参数,分析突跳参数异常,较好的反映了煤层的不连续性;比较相干、突跳理论两种技术在反映煤层不连续性上的效果,分析了各种技术的优缺点.尝试将相干属性和突跳参数属性进行融合,得到新的属性切片,很好的反映了煤层断层和裂隙富集区的分布情况.研究表明,利用突变参数进行断层的检测是可行的,突变理论将为煤层不连续性检测提供一种新的方法.%The cusp model of catastrophe theory and its expression are mentioned in this paper. The seismic record is transformed into the normal form of cusp catastrophe. Catastrophic potential, catastrophic time and so on are calculated in time domain and in frequency domain. Analysis of catastrophic anomalies can better reflect the discontinuity of coal seam. Comparing the effect of the theories of coherence and catastrophe in reflecting coal seam discontinuity, advantages and disadvantages of these two techniques were analyzed. Finally attempting to attribute catastrophe parameters with coherence and getting the new sections can reflect the distribution of zones rich in faults and fractures in coal seams. The study indicates that using catastrophe parameters to detect faults is feasible and catastrophe theory provides a new method for coal seam discontinuity detection.

  4. The mechanism of the formation of the hemiaminal and Schiff base from the benzaldehyde and triazole studied by means of the topological analysis of electron localisation function and catastrophe theory (United States)

    Berski, Slawomir; Zbigniew Ciunik, Leszek


    The mechanisms of reaction of benzaldehyde (ald) with 4-amine-4H-1,2,4-triazole (4at), leading to Schiff base (Sch) and water, were investigated using topological analysis of the electron localisation function and catastrophe theory. Two reactions (synthesis of hemiaminal and synthesis of Schiff base) are represented by one catastrophe sequence: ald+4at: 1-14-[FF†F†FFTS1FF†F†FF†F†CF†]-2-9-[C†FFTS3F†F†FFF]-0:Sch+H2O with only fold (F) and cusp (C) catastrophes. The first reaction, in which a molecule of the hemiaminal is formed, consists of 14 steps separated by 13 catastrophes. The mechanism is non-concerted. The covalent bond C-N is formed after the formation of the O-H bond is terminated. The Schiff base formation through the water molecule elimination in the second reaction requires nine steps with eight catastrophes. The mechanism is non-concerted because first the C-O bond is broken and then the proton transfer occurs that results in the O-H bond creation.

  5. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum


    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  6. Huygens and Barrow, Newton and Hooke. Pioneers in mathematical analysis and catastrophe theory from evolvents to quasicrystals. (United States)

    Arnol'D, V. I.

    This book is an English translation of the Russian original of 1989. It is based on a college lecture commemorating the tercentenary of Newton's book Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. The author retraces the beginnings of mathematical analysis and theoretical physics in the works of the great scientists of the 17th century, and recounts the history of the discovery of the law of gravitation, discussions Newton had with Hooke and Leibniz, and much more. Some of Huygens' and Newton's ideas, several centuries ahead of their time, were developed only recently. The author follows the link between their inception and the break-throughs in contemporary mathematics and physics. The book provides present-day generalizations of Newton's theorems on the elliptical shape of orbits, attraction of spheres, and on the transcendence of Abelian integrals; it offers a brief review of the theory of regular and chaotic movement in celestial mechanics, including, for example, the problem of ports in the distribution of smaller planets and a discussion of the structure of planetary rings.

  7. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman


    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  8. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    for the girl talk is centred on catastrophes or Nakbas, as they are referred to in Arabic. Not only al-Nakba of 1948 when the Palestinians were displaced from their homeland, but also the many recurring wars and the individual catastrophes that involve dead family members, rapes, loss of children and abusive...

  9. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef


    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  10. Habitability and cosmic catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold; McKay, Christopher P


    Catastrophic cosmic events such as asteroid impacts appear in the range of some 100 million years and have drastically affected evolution. The author discusses whether and how such events could have occurred in recently found extrasolar planetary systems.

  11. Tourism destination safety evaluation based on the catastrophe theory%基于突变理论的目的地旅游安全评价研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹永广; 郑向敏


    Various kinds of emergencies have happened frequently in the tourism destinations , and the uncertainty of tourism safety is becoming prominent increasingly .Tourism safety in tourism destinations are increasingly becom-ing the focus of widespread attention in the field of tourism safety and emergency management .On the basis of the concept of tourism safety system , combining with the connotation of tourism services and management , the safety system of tourism was divided into three subsystems , namely core subsystem , auxiliary subsystem and guarantees subsystem, and thus, the safety evaluation index system of tourism was built .In the meantime, the evaluation method of catastrophe theory was applied to measure and judge the tourism safety degree in Shanghai from 2005 to 2011 .The results showed that the tourism security degrees of Shanghai overall presented a rising fluctuations trend , basically were in a safe area , existing potential risk .Scientific and reasonable evaluation is a reference for tourism risk early warning , risk prevention and avoidance .%目的:地各种旅游突发事件频发,旅游安全的不确定性愈发凸显,旅游安全评价是目的地旅游安全与应急管理的当务之急。依据目的地旅游安全系统的概念及结构,目的地旅游安全系统包括三个子系统,即核心子系统、辅助子系统和保障子系统,并以此构建了目的地旅游安全评价指标体系,同时应用突变理论模型评价方法,对2005~2011年上海市旅游安全度进行测定和判断。结果显示:上海市旅游安全度总体呈上升趋势波动,基本都处于安全区,存在潜在风险。科学合理的旅游安全评价为目的地旅游风险预警、风险防范及规避提供参考。

  12. Mutation accumulation and the catastrophic senescence of Pacific salmon

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, T J P; Stauffer, D; Stauffer, Dietrich


    The bit-string model of biological aging is used to simulate the catastrophic senescence of Pacific Salmon. We have shown that reproduction occuring only once and at a fixed age is the only ingredient needed to explain the catastrophic senescence according the mutation accumulation theory. Several results are presented, some of them with up to 10^8 fishes, showing how the survival rates in catastrophic senescence are affected by changes in the parameters of the model.

  13. Is Geothermal Simulation a "Catastrophe"?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, George F.


    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e. two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equihbrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. In this paper, we present an alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as "catastrophe theory". [Thom, 1975

  14. [The abdominal catastrophe]. (United States)

    Seiler, Christian A


    Patients with an abdominal catastrophe are in urgent need of early, interdisciplinary medical help. The treatment plan should be based on medical priorities and clear leadership. First priority should be given to achieve optimal oxygenation of blood and stabilization of circulation during all treatment-phases. The sicker the patient, the less invasive the (surgical) treatment should to be, which means "damage control only". This short article describes 7 important, pragmatic rules that will help to increase the survival of a patient with an abdominal catastrophe. Preexisting morbidity and risk factors must be included in the overall risk-evaluation for every therapeutic intervention. The challenge in patients with an abdominal catastrophe is to carefully balance the therapeutic stress and the existing resistance of the individual patient. The best way to avoid abdominal disaster, however, is its prevention.

  15. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja


    were expelled from their homeland. However, according to my interlocutors, al-Nakba never stopped, but continues in the present. To understand this phenomenon, I suggest that it is conducive to think of al-Nakba as a reverse national myth, a figure of un-becoming, which is replicated in the present. I...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  16. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz


    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  17. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)


    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  18. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  19. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome]. (United States)

    Wisłowska, Małgorzata


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is the most dangerous form of the antiphospholipid syndrome, which is characterized by rapid onset of thrombosis in small vessels of many organs and intravascular coagulation, thrombocytopenia and hemolytic anemia. The syndrome develops over a short period of time with acute multi-organ failure, including kidney, respiratory, cardiovascular, central nervous system and adrenal glands, often associated with disseminated thrombotic microangiopathy. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome involves three or more systems, organs and/or tissues, the development of symptoms must occur within less than one week, it is necessary to confirm the histopathological vascular occlusion in at least one organ or tissue, and laboratory confirmation of the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies in the serum on two occasions over an interval of 12 weeks. This syndrome is characterized by a high mortality despite the use of optimal treatment. Early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of patients with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is essential to save the life of these patients. In the last 10 years, the mortality in this disease decreased from 50% to 30% with simultaneous treatment with anticoagulants, corticosteroids, plasmapheresis and immunoglobulins.

  20. Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Qi-hua; CAO Jian-jun


    Based on the theory of grey system, established GM (1, 1) grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing (not the volume of water inflowing). After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in -400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis,it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina


    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  2. 基于黏滑失稳与突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型%Early-warning model of coal and gas outburst based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭德勇; 李佳乃; 王彦凯


    在矿井瓦斯地质研究基础上,根据煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理和突变理论,建立了煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳-突变理论预警模型。以瓦斯因素和地质因素为煤与瓦斯突出预警的控制变量,将其归类分化为相应的预警指标,提出了突出危险等级划分指标的界限,利用模糊数学推导出突变模糊隶属度函数,选择对应突变模型计算出突出警情的突变级数。以潞安环能股份有限公司余吾煤业为例对煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳-突变预警模型的可行性进行了验证。%According to gas-geological research, an early-warning model of coal and gas outburst was built based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory. In the model, gas factors and geological factors were considered as control variables of coal and gas outburst early-warning and were classified to the corresponding early warning indexes, then the coal and gas outburst grades of danger were determined and their warning index limits were divided. Fuzzy mathematics was used to deduce the mutation fuzzy membership function, and the catastrophe series, which can reflect the outburst, was worked out by means of choosing the corresponding mutation model. An example of Yuwu Coal Mine of Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. verified the feasibility of this early-warning model.

  3. Catastrophic medical expenditure risk. (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; O'Donnell, Owen


    We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is consistent with a model of reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. Unlike the risk premium, the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses, and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised, but not actuarially fair, insurance. An empirical illustration using data from seven Asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries. In general, risk is higher among poorer, rural and chronically ill populations.

  4. The relation between catastrophizing and the communication of pain experience. (United States)

    Sullivan, M J L; Martel, M O; Tripp, D; Savard, A; Crombez, G


    The Communal Coping Model of pain catastrophizing proposes that pain catastrophizers enact pain behaviors in order to solicit support or empathy from their social environment. By this account, pain catastrophizers might be expected to engage in behavior aimed at maximizing the probability that their pain will be perceived by others in their social environment. To test this prediction, 40 undergraduates were videotaped during a cold pressor procedure. A separate sample of 20 (10 men, 10 women) undergraduates were asked to view the video sequences and infer the pain ratings of the cold pressor participants. Correlational analyses revealed that higher levels of pain catastrophizing of the cold pressor participants were associated with observer inferences of more intense pain, r=.39, ppain catastrophizing and observer inferences of pain intensity was mediated by the cold pressor participants' pain behavior. Although pain catastrophizing was associated with observers' inferences of more intense pain, cold pressor participants' level of pain catastrophizing was not associated with observers' accuracy in inferring self-reported pain. Implications of the findings for theory and clinical practice are addressed.

  5. Catastrophe models and the expansion method: A review of issues and an application to the econometric modeling of economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio Casetti


    Full Text Available Many negative reactions to Catastrophe Theory have been triggered by overly simplistic applications unintended and unsuited for statistical-econometric estimation, inference, and testing. In this paper it is argued that stochastic catastrophe models constructed using the Expansion Method hold the most promise to widen the acceptance of Catastrophe Theory by analytically oriented scholars in the social sciences and elsewhere. The paper presents a typology of catastrophe models, and demonstrates the construction and estimation of an econometric expanded cusp catastrophe model of economic growth.

  6. Mechanism of New Enterprises Obtaining the Legitimacy Based on Catastrophe Theory%基于突变理论的新企业合法性获取机制研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨玉红; 倪宁


    运用突变理论刻画组织合法性的复杂动态机制,建立一个比传统线性模型更符合现实情况的理论模型。该模型探索了组织采取操纵策略后所表现出来的合法性的动态变化,描述了操纵策略与合法性水平之间的复杂动态关系。基于这个研究框架,未来的实证研究将有可能逐步揭示出合法化策略发挥作用的过程中突破合法性门槛的影响参数有些什么。在方法论上的贡献在于,为管理学中关乎复杂动态机制的理论如何迈向可实证的模型探索出了一条值得参考的思路。%Investigate the complex dynamic mechanism of organizational legitimacy by catastrophe theory,and establish a theoretical model more matching the reality than traditional linear model.Specifically,the theoretical model explores the dynamic change of organizational legitimacy with the organizational control strategies,and describes the complex dynamic relations between control strategies and level of legitimacy.Based on this research framework,the future empirical research is likely to gradually reveal the process of legalized strategies and the parameters breaking through the legitimacy threshold.The methodological contribution is to explore a worthy of reference way on how to develop a empirical model basing on the complex dynamic mechanism theory.

  7. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos


    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  8. 集成突变论和演化博弈的企业员工冲突行为研究%Research on Conflict Behavior between Enterprises and Employees Based on Catastrophe Theory and Evolutionary Game

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵旭; 胡斌


    To make dynamic analysis of conflict incidents between enterprises and employees is the premise and key for conflict management .From the new perspective of catastrophe theory and evolutionary game , this article constructs the Cusp Catastrophe evolutionary Model of enterprises-employees ’ conflict behaviors and reasonably explains the employees ’ conflict behaviors ’ change process under the influence of the two dependent variables:interest and emotion .According to the theory , we discuss the evolution rules of conflict decisions between enter-prises-employees and developmental characteristics of the conflict situations , thereby putting forward measures of conflict management.The research reveals the main results as follows .Firstly, employees’ conflict behaviors may occur under the influence of interest factors and emotional factors .Interest factors decide whether the con-flict will happen and emotional factors decide when it will happen and its degrees .Secondly , it is short-sighted for enterprises to adopt a tough attitude to the employees ’ reasonable claim On the contrary , it is better for the enterprises to give benefits to employees from the view of humanism management .Thirdly, in the extreme con-flict, if the full benefit the enterprises give to employees still cannot quell the dispute , they need to pay more additional cost.Finally, when employees show extreme behaviors , they should be dealt with according to relevant laws and regulations .Otherwise , the vicious conflict incidents tend to be expanded if the enterprises try to elimi-nate its effects by blind concession .However , it is very effective for the enterprises to cope with conflict by advo-cating positive and unified corporate values .%对企业员工冲突行为的动态分析是开展冲突管理的前提和关键。本文从突变理论和演化博弈相结合的全新视角,构建了企业员工冲突突变行为演化模型,解释了员工冲突行

  9. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva


    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  10. Lewis Acid and Substituent Effects on the Molecular Mechanism for the Nazarov Reaction of Penta-1,4-dien-3-one and Derivatives. A Topological Analysis Based on the Combined Use of Electron Localization Function and Catastrophe Theory. (United States)

    Polo, Victor; Andrés, Juan


    The joint use of the topological analysis provided by the electron localization function (ELF) and catastrophe theory (CT), at the B3LYP/6-31G(d) calculation level, allows us to examine the Lewis acid (protonation H(+) and presence of BH3) and the role of an electron donor substituent (-OCH3) at α and β positions along the course of the molecular mechanism for the Nazarov rearrangement of penta-1,4-dien-3-one and eight derivatives. The progress of the reaction is monitored by the changes of the ELF structural stability domains (SSDs), each change being controlled by a turning point derived from CT. These SSDs and the corresponding turning points are associated with a sequence of elementary chemical steps. Along the cyclization path of penta-1,4-diene-3-one, four SSDs as well as three turning points (cusp1-fold1-cusp2) have been characterized. The first and second SSDs correspond to a polarization of the C-O bond and electronic redistribution among the C-C bonds, respectively, and they can be associated with the formation of an oxyallyl structure. The third and fourth SSDs can be assigned to the ring closure process. Protonation of the oxygen atom shifts the reactive directly into the second SSD, greatly reducing the activation and reaction energies. The electronic effects due to Lewis acids and electron donor substituents have been rationalized in terms of calculations of mesomeric structures from ELF basin populations. The combination of Lewis acids together with α and β -OCH3 substitutions renders a cooperative and competitive effect on activation and reaction free energies, respectively.

  11. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Lockwood


    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the “real” world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be “tools” rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a “both–and” rather than an “either–or” approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may

  12. Creating catastrophes in the classroom (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy


    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  13. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian


    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tatarina


    Full Text Available The article deals with foreign experience of catastrophic risks reinsurance. The directions to ensure savings and increase capitalization of insurance companies under reinsurance protection. The necessary of catastrophic risk reinsurance in Ukraine has brought.

  15. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  16. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee


    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  17. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.


    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  18. Analysis of the Aging Behavior of Asphalt Based on Gray and Catastrophic Theories%基于灰色突变理论的沥青老化行为分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张红梅; 边开磊; 刘圣洁; 徐东


    In order to forecast the time regularity of the asphalt thermal and oxygen aging, the RTFOT experiment was applied, according to the principle of evaluating system stability with the variable tendency of its compatibility, the destabilization of asphalt aging was predicted with the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model. The research results show that the catastrophe exits in the aging process, and hysteresis phenomenon exits between catastrophe and aging actions. For the asphalt mixture, the heating time should not exceed 50 min, and to make the asphalt pavement have the long services life, the measures should be taken to extend the catastrophic happened time.%为了研究沥青热氧老化的时间规律,利用室内旋转薄膜(RTFOT)试验,根据系统工程科学理论和非线性科学的灰色突变理论模型,对不同老化程度的沥青性能指标值进行灰色生成处理,建立沥青老化的灰色尖点突变模型,对沥青热氧老化的规律进行分析.结果表明,沥青的老化过程存在突变现象,且其性能突变与老化反应之间存在滞后现象,沥青混合料拌合和热储存时间应保证小于50 min,沥青路面应采取适当措施延长老化突变时间,使路面具有更长的服务寿命.

  19. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris


    Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

  20. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl


    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  1. Catastrophic Evaporation of Rocky Planets

    CERN Document Server

    Perez-Becker, Daniel


    Short-period exoplanets can have dayside surface temperatures surpassing 2000 K, hot enough to vaporize rock and drive a thermal wind. Small enough planets evaporate completely. We construct a radiative-hydrodynamic model of atmospheric escape from strongly irradiated, low-mass rocky planets, accounting for dust-gas energy exchange in the wind. Rocky planets with masses 2000 K are found to disintegrate entirely in 0.1 M_Earth/Gyr --- our model yields a present-day planet mass of < 0.02 M_Earth or less than about twice the mass of the Moon. Mass loss rates depend so strongly on planet mass that bodies can reside on close-in orbits for Gyrs with initial masses comparable to or less than that of Mercury, before entering a final short-lived phase of catastrophic mass loss (which KIC 12557548b has entered). Because this catastrophic stage lasts only up to a few percent of the planet's life, we estimate that for every object like KIC 12557548b, there should be 10--100 close-in quiescent progenitors with sub-da...

  2. 公共支出减损巨灾影响的理论与政策研究——兼谈促进巨灾保险事业发展的财政政策%Theory and policy on reduction of catastrophic loss by public expenditure: and taking about financial policy on promoting development of catastrophic insurance cause

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李冲; 朱军


    In recent decades, with continuous economic development and population increase, global natural disasters are frequent and serious, incidents of human-induced damage is also increasing. In this regard, the paper discusses theoretically the economic impact, and social loss of catastrophe. On this basis, the paper presents a policy on finance and tax from public finantial viewpoint to promote development of catastrophy in surance cause.%近儿十年来,随着经济的发展和人口的增加,全球自然灾害越来越频繁,也越来越严重,人为导致的突发事件造成的损害也越来越大.对此,从理论上探讨了巨灾出现的经济影响,并从实际出发分析了巨灾造成的社会损失.在此基础上,从公共财政的角度提出了减灾的财税政策,及促进巨灾保险事业发展的财税措施.

  3. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.


    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  4. Catastrophizing delays the analgesic effect of distraction. (United States)

    Campbell, Claudia M; Witmer, Kenny; Simango, Mpepera; Carteret, Alene; Loggia, Marco L; Campbell, James N; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A; Edwards, Robert R


    Behavioral analgesic techniques such as distraction reduce pain in both clinical and experimental settings. Individuals differ in the magnitude of distraction-induced analgesia, and additional study is needed to identify the factors that influence the pain relieving effects of distraction. Catastrophizing, a set of negative emotional and cognitive processes, is widely recognized to be associated with increased reports of pain. We sought to evaluate the relationship between catastrophizing and distraction analgesia. Healthy participants completed three sessions in a randomized order. In one session (Pain Alone), pain was induced by topical application of a 10% capsaicin cream and simultaneous administration of a tonic heat stimulus. In another session (Pain+Distraction), identical capsaicin+heat application procedures were followed, but subjects played video games that required a high level of attention. During both sessions, verbal ratings of pain were obtained and participants rated their degree of catastrophizing. During the other session (Distraction Alone) subjects played the video games in the absence of any pain stimulus. Pain was rated significantly lower during the distraction session compared to the "Pain Alone" session. In addition, high catastrophizers rated pain significantly higher regardless of whether the subjects were distracted. Catastrophizing did not influence the overall degree of distraction analgesia; however, early in the session high catastrophizers had little distraction analgesia, though later in the session low and high catastrophizers rated pain similarly. These results suggest that both distraction and catastrophizing have substantial effects on experimental pain in normal subjects and these variables interact as a function of time.

  5. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D;


    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  6. Environmental Catastrophes Under Time-inconsistent Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, T.O.


    Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-in

  7. Catastrophic senescence and semelparity in the Penna aging model

    CERN Document Server

    Pinol, C M N


    The catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon is among the initial tests used to validate the Penna aging model. Based on the mutation accumulation theory, the sudden decrease in fitness following reproduction may be solely attributed to the semelparity of the species. In this work, we report other consequences of mutation accumulation. Contrary to earlier findings, such dramatic manifestation of aging depends not only on the choice of breeding strategy but also on the value of the reproduction age, R, and the mutation threshold, T. Senescence is catastrophic when T\\leq R. As the organism's tolerance for harmful genetic mutations increases, the aging process becomes more gradual. We observe senescence that is threshold dependent whenever T>R. That is, the sudden drop in survival rate occurs at age equal to the mutation threshold value.

  8. 基于尖点突变理论的知识型员工组织承诺建立——的动力学分析%The Analysis on Fulfillment and Breach of Knowledge-worker's Organizational Commitment by Cusp Catastrophe Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐岩; 胡斌; 王元元


    利用尖点突变理论来解释知识型员工组织承诺演化的动力学机制及其特征,把组织承诺作为状态变量,把能有效预测组织承诺的工作满意度和组织支持作为控制变量,针对武汉IT企业调研数据,利用cuspfit软件定量地拟合出了尖点突变模型.通过分析发现,工作满意度作为正则因子、组织支持作为分歧因子,共同影响组织承诺的突变机制:①组织承诺由建立到破坏的突变是源于工作满意度和组织支持变量穿过分歧集合时产生的自组织相变;②承诺一旦被破坏就很难重新建立起来,是源于这种突变机制的滞后效应;③当工作满意度和组织支持取值在分歧集合内部时,组织承诺演化均衡态的选择(建立或者破坏)取决于员工承诺的初始水平.%The temporal dynamics of knowledge-worker's organizational commitment (OC) is modeled by cusp catastrophe theory. In this model, the behavioral variable (I. E. Perception of OC) and the independent control variables (I. E. , job satisfaction and organizational support) are introduced. This paper is the first attempt to fit a cusp catastrophe model to OC data from IT firms by cusp fit software. It suggests that job satisfaction as a formal factor and organizational support as a bifurcation factor play important roles in the catastrophe mechanism of OC. 1) The catastrophe from fulfillment to breach is because of self-organization phase transition when job satisfaction and organizational support cross the bifurcation set; 2) The phenomenon that once a promise has been broken it could not easily be repaired is because of the existence of hysteresis; 3) When job satisfaction and organizational support are in the bifurcation set, the equilibrium of OC level depends on the initial status of it.

  9. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang


    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  10. Bifurcation and catastrophe of seepage flow system in broken rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO Xie-xing; LI Shun-cai; CHEN Zhan-qing


    The study of dynamical behavior of water or gas flows in broken rock is a basic research topic among a series of key projects about stability control of the surrounding rocks in mines and the prevention of some disasters such as water inrush or gas outburst and the protection of the groundwater resource. It is of great theoretical and engineering importance in respect of promo-tion of security in mine production and sustainable development of the coal industry. According to the non-Darcy property of seepage flow in broken rock dynamic equations of non-Darcy and non-steady flows in broken rock are established. By dimensionless transformation, the solution diagram of steady-states satisfying the given boundary conditions is obtained. By numerical analysis of low relaxation iteration, the dynamic responses corresponding to the different flow parameters have been obtained. The stability analysis of the steady-states indicate that a saddle-node bifurcaton exists in the seepage flow system of broken rock. Consequently, using catastrophe theory, the fold catastrophe model of seepage flow instability has been obtained. As a result, the bifurcation curves of the seepage flow systems with different control parameters are presented and the standard potential function is also given with respect to the generalized state variable for the fold catastrophe of a dynamic system of seepage flow in broken rock.

  11. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries (United States)

    Frank, H. A.


    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary. (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I


    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report.

  13. Catastrophes in Scale-Free Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; WANG Bing-Hong


    @@ An alternative model about cascading occurrences caused by perturbation is established to search the mechanism because catastrophes in networks occur. We investigate the avalanche dynamics of our model on two-dimensional Euclidean lattices and scale-free networks and find that the avalanche dynamic behaviour is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. The simulation results show that the catastrophes occur much more frequently in scale-free networks than those in Euclidean lattices, and the greatest catastrophe in scale-free networks is much more serious than that in Euclidean lattices. Furthermore, we have studied how to reduce the catastrophes'degree, and have schemed out an effective strategy, called the targeted safeguard strategy for scale-free networks.

  14. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Boyer


    Full Text Available In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1 the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2 the implicit (or explicit presence of government entities acting as (reinsurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  15. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva


    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  16. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  17. Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem

    CERN Document Server

    Cirkovic, Milan M


    One of the mainstays of the controversial "rare Earth" hypothesis is the "Goldilocks problem" regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth's biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research.

  18. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso


    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. METHODS Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. RESULTS In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. CONCLUSIONS Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. PMID:27982383

  19. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun


    of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...... coverage before and after calamities. This definition of catastrophic area from ICT point of view has no one tried before. Network parameters behavioural graphs are also important. This paper presents only behavioural part....

  20. Assessment of Flood Catastrophe Risk for Grain Production at the Provincial Scale in China Based on the BMM Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Lei; ZHANG Qiao; ZHOU Ai-lian; HUO Ran


    Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change, and meanwhile, it is an urgent scientiifc issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. This paper developed the methodology of lfood catastrophe risk assessment, which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) iftting, and risk evaluation. Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation. Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufifciency of crop loss data. Block maxima model (BMM) approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) of lfood catastrophe loss, and then lfood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated. The Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling lfood catastrophe risk for grain production. The impact of lfood catastrophe to grain production in China was signiifcantly serious, and high or very high risk of lfood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century lfood disaster, for majority of the major-producing provinces, the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%. Especially, the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99, 99.86, 99.69, and 91.60% respectively in Anhui, Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang. Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about lfood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of lfood catastrophe.

  1. The role of infectious diseases in the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. (United States)

    Garcia-Carrasco, M; Mendoza-Pinto, C; Macias-Diaz, S; Vazquez de Lara, F; Etchegaray-Morales, I; Galvez-Romero, J L; Mendez-Martinez, S; Cervera, R


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), also called "Asherson syndrome", is a variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that occurs in less than 1% of APS cases. The etiology of CAPS is uncertain; however, several triggering factors have been recognized. The most common of these are infectious diseases, particularly those of the respiratory tract. CAPS pathogenesis is incompletely understood, but several theories have been proposed, such as the molecular mimicry theory, which describes the production of anti-β2-glycoprotein I (GP1) antibody in response to infection. The process is complex and involves the activation of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4), which triggers a cytokine storm, followed by endothelial alterations that induce a procoagulant state.

  2. Variable Structure Control of Catastrophic Course in Airdropping Heavy Cargo

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Huiyuan; Shi Zhongke


    The mathematical model of a transport aircraft would be subjected to a sudden change when heavy cargo is dropped off in airdropping, which exerts serious influences upon the safety of the aircraft. A variable structure controller is specially designed for handling the airdrop process. The nonlinear system is linearized by input-output feedback linearization using differential geometry theories. On this basis, an inner loop system for velocity and attitude tracking control is designed by using the exponentially approaching rule of the variable structure theory. The whole flight control system is integrated with the outer loop flight altitude control. Digital simulation evidences the applicability of the system to potentially catastrophic course in airdropping heavy cargo and provides robustness against system parameter perturbation.

  3. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Brummitt, Charles D; D'Souza, Raissa M


    A profoundly important challenge in several disciplines today is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. We characterize these phenomena using a simple model grounded in the theory of fast--slow ordinary differential equations and in catastrophe theory. In the model, a system consists of multiple subsystems (e.g., countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem), each described by a scalar quantity (such as economic output or population) that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantities (e.g., trade couples economic output, diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves their bifurcations. The model elucidates two ways in which sudden changes can propaga...

  4. 基于突变理论的油田管输建设工程项目环境风险评价%Oilfield pipeline construction project Environmental Risk Assessment based on Catastrophe Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王秀英; 胥卫平


    本文在环境风险评价理论的基础上。分析了突变理论及其在油田管输工程项目中的应用。通过分析油田管输建设前后生态系统的非同构性后,探讨了用突变理论解决油田管输工程中环境风险评价的可能性。%The main contents of this thesis are based on the environmental risk evaluation theory, and on the basis of analysis the mutation in oil field theory and the application of engineering project pipe-conveying. Through the analysis of oil field construction of ecological system pipe-conveying before and after the isomorphism after sex, and probes into the theory with mutations solving pipe- conveying engineering of the possibility of environmental risk assessment.

  5. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale: Development and Validation. (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J. L.; And Others


    A series of 4 studies involving 547 college students and community adults report the development of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, its validity with clinical and nonclinical samples, and its correlation with measures of related constructs. The scale provides information about heightened responses to aversive procedures or events. (SLD)

  6. Mindfulness, Acceptance and Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Maaike J.; Steinhagen, Hannemike E.; Versteegen, Gerbrig J.; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Sanderman, Robbert


    Objectives: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to exami

  7. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.


    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform disor

  8. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.


    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic cat


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    In the catastrophe theory of nonlinear science,the intensity of water-flow and the coefficient of non-uniformsediment m are regarded as two bound variables, and the in-tensity of bed-load transport Φ as the state variable in the mo-tion of non-uniform sediment in cusp-catastrophe model.Based on the standard equation of the cusp-catastrophe theo-ry, the relation equation between the intensity of bed-loadtransport Φ and the intensity of water-flow has been derivedby used coordinate transform and topology transform. The e-quation of bed load transport rate was built on the cusp-catas-trophe theory of nonlinear science. The others are applied toverify this equation, that the results calculated by the cusp-ca-tastrophe equation agree well with the other equations. Thisindicates that the cusp-catastrophe equation is reasonable, and the results fully reflect the characteristics of threshold motionand transport of non-uniform sediment. The purpose of thispaper is to explore the incipient motion and transport laws ofnon-uniform sediment from the viewpoint of nonlinear science.

  10. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)


    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale f

  11. Research on Tourism Crisis Management of Scenic Area Based on Catastrophe Theory: A Case Study of Hailuogou Scenic Spot%突变视角下的海螺沟景区旅游危机管理研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王兴贵; 杨荣金; 税伟


    In order to effectively deal with the negative impact caused by tourism crisis and promote healthy development of tourism industry in Hailuogou scenic spot, this paper analyzes the types and factors of tourism crisis in Hailuogou scenic spot based on the mutation theory. The study reveals that, as a mutant phenomenon not conducive to the tourism development, Hailuogou tourism crisis is caused by natural disasters and human factors, including political events and public health events. To prevent and control the occurrence and development of Hailuogou tourism crisis, it is necessary to take a series of appropriate measures focusing on management agencies, crisis warning mechanism, crisis management, crisis awareness and tourism development mode, etc.%为有效应对旅游危机带来的负面影响,推动海螺沟景区旅游业的健康发展,基于突变理论,分析了海螺沟景区旅游危机的类型与诱因.研究发现,海螺沟景区旅游危机是由自然灾害、人为因素综合作用产生的不利于海螺沟景区旅游发展的突变现象.要预防、控制海螺沟景区旅游危机发生和发展,必须围绕“管理机构、危机预警机制、危机事件处理、危机意识与旅游发展模式”等,采取相应的对策措施.

  12. Recent catastrophic landslides and mitigation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper present...

  13. Prediction of Catastrophes: an experimental model

    CERN Document Server

    Peters, Randall D; Pomeau, Yves


    Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time scales involved, an experimental approach is often difficult, not to say impossible, however desirable it could be. Described in this article is a "laboratory" setup that yields data of a type that is amenable to theoretical methods of prediction. Observations are made of a critical slowing down in the noisy signal of a solder wire creeping under constant stress. This effect is shown to be a fair signal of the forthcoming catastrophe in both of two dynamical models. The first is an "abstract" model in which a time dependent quantity drifts slowly but makes quick jumps from time to time. The second is a realistic physical model for the collective motion of dislocations (the Ananthakrishna set of equations for creep). Hope thus exists that similar changes in the response to ...

  14. Downward catastrophe of solar magnetic flux ropes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Quanhao; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui


    2.5D time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free. The system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Secondly, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by a jump of a solution from the u...

  15. Catastrophe characteristics of the condensation and pool boiling phenomena (United States)

    Ma, Xuehu; Xu, Dunqi; Lin, Jifang


    Recently, Utaka proposed two types of the transition modes of dropwise condensation, i.e. the continuous and the jumping modes, and presented a criterion for determining the condensation transition mode. Stylianous and Rose proposed two hypotheses, the coalescence-limited transition and the nucleation site saturation transition. Neither Utaka's criterion nor Rose's hypotheses could clearly interpret the physical mechanisms of the transition both from filmwise to dropwise and from dropwise to pseudofilm condensation, and explicitly presented the main factors affecting the transitions. Kalinin hs given a general review of the transition boiling heat transfer. The catastrophe theory will be applied here to eluicidate the complex phenomena of the transitions of the condensation and boiling pattern states.

  16. Eradicating Catastrophic Collapse in Interdependent Networks via Reinforced Nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xin; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo


    In interdependent networks, it is usually assumed, based on percolation theory, that nodes become nonfunctional if they lose connection to the network giant component. However, in reality, some nodes, equipped with alternative resources, together with their connected neighbors can still be functioning once disconnected from the giant component. Here we propose and study a generalized percolation model that introduces a fraction of reinforced nodes in the interdependent networks that can function and support their neighborhood. We analyze, both analytically and via simulations, the order parameter$-$the functioning component$-$comprising both the giant component and smaller components that include at least one reinforced node. Remarkably, we find that for interdependent networks, we need to reinforce only a small fraction of nodes to prevent abrupt catastrophic collapses. Moreover, we find that the universal upper bound of this fraction is 0.1756 for two interdependent Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi (ER) networks, regula...

  17. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski


    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  18. Catastrophe analysis on pillar instability considered mining effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping


    The instability of the pillar was discussed based on the potential energy principle and the cusp catastrophe theory, and a simplified mechanical model of the pillar was established considering the mining effect. The necessary-sufficient conditions, the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were deduced. The results show that the instability of the pillar is related to the properties of the rock, the external force and the relative stiffness of the elastic area to the plastic area. The instability of system is like to occur with the enlarging of the softening area or the decreasing of E/λ. The calculation done shows that the estimated results correspond to practical experience.

  19. Fire phenomena and nonlinearity (II). Catastrophic fire dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, Z. [University of Science and Technology, Hefei (China). State Key Laboratory of Fire Science


    As one of the most important non-linear mechanisms to cause fire or exacerbate fire disaster, there is a great deal of catastrophe behaviours existing in fire processes. The main tasks of the study of catastrophic fire dynamics are: 1) analysis of the catastrophe mechanisms of discontinuity behaviours in fire systems; 2) investigation of the controlling methods of discontinuity behaviours of fire system; 3) qualitative analysis of the dynamical characteristics of fire systems; and 4) catastrophe classifying of discontinuity phenomena in fire system. The other disciplines, such as physics, chemistry, biology, geoscience, astronomy, or even social sciences (for instance, political, economics, strategics and management science), may also take the similar method to establish the corresponding branch discipline of catastrophe science and catastrophe classification method. It is pointed out that an ignition behaviour of the uniform temperature thermal explosion system under the control of radiation has cusp catastrophe mechanism. 10 refs., 3 figs.

  20. Catastrophizing and symptoms of sleep disturbances in children. (United States)

    Gregory, Alice M; Noone, Deirdre M; Eley, Thalia C; Harvey, Allison G


    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness is a cognitive process associated with sleep disturbance in adults. This study aimed to (1) examine whether children catastrophize about the consequences of not sleeping; (2) define the topics that children catastrophize about; (3) assess whether there is a link between catastrophizing and sleep disturbance in children; and (4) examine whether an association between catastrophizing and sleep in children is mediated by anxiety and depression symptoms. Children completed the sleep self-report and a catastrophizing interview. Testing took place in two inner-city schools in London, UK and participants comprised 123 children aged between 8 and 10 years (49% male). Thirty-four (28%) participants reported concerns in response to the catastrophizing questionnaire. The main topics being catastrophized were concerns about sleep, physiological issues and one's own emotions. Catastrophes predicted sleep disturbance after controlling for age and sex (beta = 0.35, P anxiety and depression symptoms (beta = 0.15, P = 0.106). Symptoms of anxiety (Sobel test = 3.30, P sleep. A proportion of children catastrophized about the consequences of sleeplessness and this was associated with sleep disturbance, an association which was mediated through anxiety and depression symptoms.

  1. Bladder Pneumatosis From a Catastrophic Vascular Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J. Cooke


    Full Text Available Air within the bladder wall, or bladder pneumatosis, is a very rare finding typically resulting from an infectious etiology, as in emphysematous cystitis (EC. However, there have been reports of bladder pneumatosis occurring without clear infectious origins. We present a case of a female patient found to have concurrent bladder and ileal pneumatosis secondary to a catastrophic vascular event. Prompt recognition of non-infectious etiologies of bladder pneumatosis is essential as this distinction may dramatically alter clinical decision-making.

  2. Catastrophic volcanic collapse: relation to hydrothermal processes. (United States)

    López, D L; Williams, S N


    Catastrophic volcanic collapse, without precursory magmatic activity, is characteristic of many volcanic disasters. The extent and locations of hydrothermal discharges at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia, suggest that at many volcanoes collapse may result from the interactions between hydrothermal fluids and the volcanic edifice. Rock dissolution and hydrothermal mineral alteration, combined with physical triggers such as earth-quakes, can produce volcanic collapse. Hot spring water compositions, residence times, and flow paths through faults were used to model potential collapse at Ruiz. Caldera dimensions, deposits, and alteration mineral volumes are consistent with parameters observed at other volcanoes.

  3. Catastrophe Theory: State of the Art and Potential Applications (United States)


    Planets, comets, and cannonballs are governed by a single law; from the point of view of Newtonian mechanics they are in the same class. The...constituencies (including government agencies) emphatically do not operate on a pyramidal model of leadership. The problem is that most campus...among folk music illuminati . The university began to take pride in the yearly festival as though it had been officially and centrally sponsored and

  4. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam


    Background: There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. Method: This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. Results: 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. Conclusions: This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  5. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.


    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that m

  6. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents


    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Mari F. C. M.; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric


    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of the behavioral inhibition and behavioral activation systems (BIS-BAS), and various reactive and regulative temperament traits. Results de...

  7. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  8. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes. (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J


    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  9. 5. Nonmalignant diseases after the Chernobyl catastrophe. (United States)

    Yablokov, Alexey V


    This section describes the spectrum and the scale of the nonmalignant diseases that have been found among exposed populations. Adverse effects as a result of Chernobyl irradiation have been found in every group that has been studied. Brain damage has been found in individuals directly exposed--liquidators and those living in the contaminated territories, as well as in their offspring. Premature cataracts; tooth and mouth abnormalities; and blood, lymphatic, heart, lung, gastrointestinal, urologic, bone, and skin diseases afflict and impair people, young and old alike. Endocrine dysfunction, particularly thyroid disease, is far more common than might be expected, with some 1,000 cases of thyroid dysfunction for every case of thyroid cancer, a marked increase after the catastrophe. There are genetic damage and birth defects especially in children of liquidators and in children born in areas with high levels of radioisotope contamination. Immunological abnormalities and increases in viral, bacterial, and parasitic diseases are rife among individuals in the heavily contaminated areas. For more than 20 years, overall morbidity has remained high in those exposed to the irradiation released by Chernobyl. One cannot give credence to the explanation that these numbers are due solely to socioeconomic factors. The negative health consequences of the catastrophe are amply documented in this chapter and concern millions of people.

  10. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    CERN Document Server

    Erickcek, Adrienne L; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi


    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic consequences for the chameleon during the Universe's first minutes. The chameleon couples to the trace of the stress-energy tensor, which is temporarily non-zero in a radiation-dominated universe whenever a particle species becomes non-relativistic. These "kicks" impart a significant velocity to the chameleon field, causing its effective mass to vary non-adiabatically and resulting in the copious production of quantum fluctuations. Dissipative effects strongly modify the background evolution of the chameleon field, invalidati...

  11. Simple scaling of catastrophic landslide dynamics. (United States)

    Ekström, Göran; Stark, Colin P


    Catastrophic landslides involve the acceleration and deceleration of millions of tons of rock and debris in response to the forces of gravity and dissipation. Their unpredictability and frequent location in remote areas have made observations of their dynamics rare. Through real-time detection and inverse modeling of teleseismic data, we show that landslide dynamics are primarily determined by the length scale of the source mass. When combined with geometric constraints from satellite imagery, the seismically determined landslide force histories yield estimates of landslide duration, momenta, potential energy loss, mass, and runout trajectory. Measurements of these dynamical properties for 29 teleseismogenic landslides are consistent with a simple acceleration model in which height drop and rupture depth scale with the length of the failing slope.

  12. Neurosurgical management for complicated catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. (United States)

    Drazin, Doniel; Westley Phillips, H; Shirzadi, Ali; Drazin, Noam; Schievink, Wouter


    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is an autoimmune condition involving arterial and venous thrombosis. An unusual APS variant, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), includes rapid multi-organ failure from widespread small vessel thrombosis. Central nervous system complications arise in one-third of CAPS patients. In rare cases, CAPS co-manifests with cerebellar hemorrhage presenting a neurosurgical emergency. We present a 65-year-old woman with CAPS-related cerebellar hematoma, co-morbid idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, deep vein thrombosis and altered mental status, with treatment complicated by thrombocytopenia. The patient suddenly deteriorated, secondary to a cerebellar subdural hematoma, and underwent decompression and excision of the hematoma. After recovery in the intensive care unit, she developed a new spontaneous epidural hematoma requiring additional surgery. Management of these patients is hematologically complex and often requires a multi-disciplinary team of physicians. This patient provides an important learning point for clinicians - consider CAPS when hemorrhage and thrombosis are present.

  13. A Study on Stability of Shallow Bridge Foundation During Tunnel Undercrossing Construction with Cusp Catastrophe Theory%隧道下穿施工影响下浅埋桥基稳定性的尖点突变评价方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢瑾荣; 周翠英; 程晔; 尤帆帆; 杜左雷


    新建隧道下穿既有桥梁基础,特别是浅埋桥基时会对其产生不利影响,将尖点突变理论引入隧道下穿施工影响下浅埋桥基的稳定性评价,根据浅埋桥基系统失稳特点确定尖点突变模型的控制变量和状态变量,由尖点突变势函数推导出桥基结构的行为曲面方程,建立描述隧道下穿施工影响下浅埋桥基失稳的数学模型;然后根据该模型将桥基稳定性状态分为稳定阶段、不稳定阶段和失稳破坏阶段,并将各阶段的划分界限严格量化,作为结构的失稳判据;最后将此方法应用于某工程实例,分析结果和工程监测结果的对比表明该方法具有良好的分辨能力与准确性,为开挖施工影响下的浅埋桥基稳定性评价提供了一条新的思路与方法.%New tunnel undercross construction would bring adversely affects to the existing bridge foundation, especially to shallow bridge foundation. The cusp catastrophe theory is led to the stability assessment of the shallow bridge foundation. First the control variable and the state variable are determined according to the instability characteristics of the shallow bridge foundation, and the mathematical model which reflects the instability process of the shallow bridge foundation is established; then the stability state of shallow bridge foundation is divided into stable phase, unstable phase and failure phase, and quantify the various phases as structure instability criterion. Last, the method is applied to an engineering project; the results indicate that this method has a good ability to distinguish and accuracy, and it provides a new thinking and method to stability assessment of shallow bridge foundation under excavation construction affecting.

  14. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.


    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle ass

  15. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  16. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.


    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  17. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.


    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian so

  18. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure - drivers and protection: the Portuguese case. (United States)

    Kronenberg, Christoph; Barros, Pedro Pita


    The objective of this paper is to assess the extent of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, which can lead to impoverishment, even in a country with a National Health Service, such as Portugal. The level of catastrophic healthcare expenditure will be identified before the determinants of these catastrophic payments are analyzed. Afterwards, the effects of existing exemptions to copayments in health care use will be tested and the relationship between catastrophe and impoverishment will be discussed. Catastrophe is calculated from the Portuguese Household Budget Surveys of 2000 and 2005, and then analyzed using logistic regression models. The results show that catastrophe due to healthcare out-of-pocket payments are a sizeable issue in Portugal. Exemptions from out-of-pocket expenses for medical care should be created to prevent vulnerable groups from facing catastrophic healthcare spending. These vulnerable groups include children, people with disabilities and individuals suffering from chronic conditions. Disability proxies offer straightforward policy options for an exemption for the elderly with recognized disabilities. An exemption of retired people with disabilities is therefore recommended to policymakers as it targets a vulnerable group with high risk of facing catastrophic healthcare expenditure.

  19. Psychological resilience predicts decreases in pain catastrophizing through positive emotions. (United States)

    Ong, Anthony D; Zautra, Alex J; Reid, M Carrington


    The study used a daily process design to examine the role of psychological resilience and positive emotions in the day-to-day experience of pain catastrophizing. A sample of 95 men and women with chronic pain completed initial assessments of neuroticism, psychological resilience, and demographic data, and then completed short diaries regarding pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and positive and negative emotions every day for 14 consecutive days. Multilevel modeling analyses indicated that independent of level of neuroticism, negative emotions, pain intensity, income, and age, high-resilient individuals reported greater positive emotions and exhibited lower day-to-day pain catastrophizing compared with low-resilient individuals. Mediation analyses revealed that psychologically resilient individuals rebound from daily pain catastrophizing through experiences of positive emotion. Implications for research on psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions are discussed.

  20. Observational Features of Large-Scale Structures as Revealed by the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    Large-scale magnetic structures are the main carrier of major eruptions in the solar atmosphere. These structures are rooted in the photosphere and are driven by the unceasing motion of the photospheric material through a series of equilibrium configurations. The motion brings energy into the coronal magnetic field until the system ceases to be in equilibrium. The catastrophe theory for solar eruptions indicates that loss of mechanical equilibrium constitutes the main trigger mechanism of major eruptions, usually shown up as solar flares,eruptive prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Magnetic reconnection which takes place at the very beginning of the eruption as a result of plasma instabilities/turbulence inside the current sheet, converts magnetic energy into heating and kinetic energy that are responsible for solar flares, and for accelerating both plasma ejecta (flows and CMEs) and energetic particles. Various manifestations are thus related to one another, and the physics behind these relationships is catastrophe and magnetic reconnection. This work reports on recent progress in both theoretical research and observations on eruptive phenomena showing the above manifestations. We start by displaying the properties of large-scale structures in the corona and the related magnetic fields prior to an eruption, and show various morphological features of the disrupting magnetic fields. Then, in the framework of the catastrophe theory,we look into the physics behind those features investigated in a succession of previous works,and discuss the approaches they used.

  1. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky


    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  2. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa


    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  3. Catastrophic model for stability analysis of high pile-column bridge pier

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    According to the engineering features of higher pile-column bridge pier in mountainous area, a clamped beam mechanical model was set up by synthetically analyzing the higher pile-column bridge pier buckling mechanism. Based on the catastrophe theory, the cusp catastrophe model of higher pile-column bridge pier was established by the determination of its potential function and bifurcation set equation, the necessary instability conditions of high pile-column bridge pier were deduced, and the determination method for column-buckling and lateral displacement of high pile-column bridge pier was derived. The comparison between the experimental and calculated results show that the calculated curves agree with testing curves and the method is reasonable and effective.

  4. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla


    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  5. Catastrophic Cracking Courtesy of Quiescent Cavitation

    CERN Document Server

    Daily, D Jesse; Thomson, Scott L; Truscott, Tadd T


    A popular party trick is to fill a glass bottle with water and hit the top of the bottle with an open hand, causing the bottom of the bottle to break open. We investigate the source of the catastrophic cracking through the use of high-speed video and an accelerometer attached to the bottom of a glass bottle. Upon closer inspection, it is obvious that the acceleration caused by hitting the top of the bottle is followed by the formation of bubbles near the bottom. The nearly instantaneous acceleration creates an area of low pressure on the bottom of the bottle where cavitation bubbles form. Moments later, the cavitation bubbles collapse at roughly 10 times the speed of formation, causing the bottle to break. The accelerometer data shows that the bottle is broken after the bubbles collapse and that the magnitude of the bubble collapse is greater than the initial impact. The fluid dynamics video highlights that this trick will not work if the bottle is empty nor if it is filled with a carbonated fluid because the...

  6. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson


    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  7. The Potential for Space Intervention in Global Catastrophes (United States)

    Hempsell, M.

    There is a growing understanding of the risks facing mankind of global catastrophe, which is defined as an event that kills a quarter the world population and risks destruction of organised society. Such catastrophes can be triggered by either naturally occurring, or arthropogenic, initiating events. And history shows that catastrophes with a natural origin do occur, with a mean separation time of around 1000 years. Anthropogenic initiated events are a recent possibility resulting from an expansion of technology capabilities, economic activity and population and, while they clearly significantly increase the total risk level above the natural background, it is more difficult to determine quantitatively by how much. Some initiating events and be directly tackled by an appropriate space capability. For example intercepting Near Earth Object before collision, or using Solar Power Satellites to eliminating carbon dioxide production in the power generation process to which many attribute global warming. Obviously prevention is the preferred option and so, not surprisingly, these particular uses of space as a means of preventing global catastrophe have received considerable attention. However space capability has a much wider potential for intervention in global catastrophes, even in those where the initiating event itself cannot be prevented. Previous work highlighting the risks through consideration of historic catastrophes has identified that global catastrophes have a complex structure with the initiating event triggering chains of vectors, which in turn trigger death causing agents. The work also highlighted that the vectors and agents during a catastrophe are similar regardless of the initiating event. This opens the possibility that space systems capable of addressing generic vectors and agents on a global scale can help deal with any global catastrophe regardless of its cause. The paper lists known (and credible) components to global catastrophes and highlight

  8. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  9. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: A "butterfly" catastrophe (United States)

    García-Ramos, J. E.; Pérez-Fernández, P.; Arias, J. M.; Freire, E.


    Background: In the past few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in nuclear physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q -like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and surfaces is determined using a catastrophe theory analysis. Conclusions: There are two first-order surfaces in the phase diagram, one separating the spherical and the deformed shapes, while the other separates two different deformed phases. A second-order line, where the later surfaces merge, is found. This line finishes in a transition point with a divergence in the second-order derivative of the energy that corresponds to a tricritical point in the language of the Ginzburg-Landau theory for phase transitions.

  10. Gradient catastrophe and Fermi-edge resonances in Fermi gas. (United States)

    Bettelheim, E; Kaplan, Y; Wiegmann, P


    Any smooth spatial disturbance of a degenerate Fermi gas inevitably becomes sharp. This phenomenon, called the gradient catastrophe, causes the breakdown of a Fermi sea to multiconnected components characterized by multiple Fermi points. We argue that the gradient catastrophe can be probed through a Fermi-edge singularity measurement. In the regime of the gradient catastrophe the Fermi-edge singularity problem becomes a nonequilibrium and nonstationary phenomenon. We show that the gradient catastrophe transforms the single-peaked Fermi-edge singularity of the tunneling (or absorption) spectrum to a sequence of multiple asymmetric singular resonances. An extension of the bosonic representation of the electronic operator to nonequilibrium states captures the singular behavior of the resonances.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Kasyanov


    Full Text Available In the scientific article fully examines current events in Ukraine in 2014-2015. The author believes that the causal and comparative historical analysis of the current Ukrainian crisis allows characterizing it as a major historical and ethnic catastrophe on a global scale after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Obvious microand macroeffects inevitably impact on the history of relations between Ukrainian and Russian brotherly nations, lead (and has led to freeze their contacts, projects and links. It causes a feeling of well-founded anxiety for the fate of not only bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia and the state of Post-Soviet space, but also for the development of all Slavic ethnic groups in the world. According to the author, it is necessary to review quickly realized Ukrainian direction of Russian state policy. It is necessary, as quickly as possible to get away from officiously promotional activities, technologies and techniques of information war and bring aid all the diversity of cultural cooperation. It is only a means of soft power, understood by us in the manner of the approach of its founder, American political scientist Joseph Nye, are able to restore the broken trust and interaction structures. Only the culture, and more specifically it such areas as language, traditions, generation feats, faith, can gradually normalize, and then to improve the bilateral relations, the each other perception, to restore a sense of respect, friendship and mutual assistance between Ukraine and Russia. It is obvious that bilateral cultural project able to change the existing negative situation.

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome in a child with thrombotic microangiopathy. (United States)

    Prasad, N; Bhadauria, D; Agarwal, N; Gupta, A; Gupta, P; Jain, M; Lal, H


    Thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia (TMHA) is not uncommon in clinical nephrology practice while antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is uncommon. Although less than 1% of patients with APS develop catastrophic APS (CAPS), its potential lethal outcome because of thrombosis in multiple organs and subsequent multiorgan failure emphasizes its importance in nephrology practice. Here is a case of catastrophic APS in a 7-year-old girl, who presented to us with TMHA associated with antiphospholipid antibodies and subsequently died because of CAPS.

  13. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain



    Background: Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress, and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method: A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Beck Depression Inventory, and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequen...

  14. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain



    Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In...

  15. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome (United States)

    Chaput, Geneviève; Lajoie, Susanne P.; Naismith, Laura M.; Lavigne, Gilles


    Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1) and 8 weeks (Time 2) after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r = .31 to .44), number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r = .35 to .45), psychological distress (r = .57 to .67), and level of functionality (r = −.43 to −.29). Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2). Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms. PMID:27445604

  16. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput


    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан


    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  18. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD


    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  19. Catastrophic failure of polymer melts during extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik K.


    Numerical flow modeling has been applied to study the break of monodisperse polymer melts during extension. These continuum mechanical based computations are within the ideas of the microstructural ’interchain pressure’ theory. Calculated breaks, a result of small initial sample imperfections, ag...

  20. Vitality of Neural Networks under Reoccurring Catastrophic Failures. (United States)

    Sardi, Shira; Goldental, Amir; Amir, Hamutal; Vardi, Roni; Kanter, Ido


    Catastrophic failures are complete and sudden collapses in the activity of large networks such as economics, electrical power grids and computer networks, which typically require a manual recovery process. Here we experimentally show that excitatory neural networks are governed by a non-Poissonian reoccurrence of catastrophic failures, where their repetition time follows a multimodal distribution characterized by a few tenths of a second and tens of seconds timescales. The mechanism underlying the termination and reappearance of network activity is quantitatively shown here to be associated with nodal time-dependent features, neuronal plasticity, where hyperactive nodes damage the response capability of their neighbors. It presents a complementary mechanism for the emergence of Poissonian catastrophic failures from damage conductivity. The effect that hyperactive nodes degenerate their neighbors represents a type of local competition which is a common feature in the dynamics of real-world complex networks, whereas their spontaneous recoveries represent a vitality which enhances reliable functionality.

  1. Chromosome catastrophes involve replication mechanisms generating complex genomic rearrangements. (United States)

    Liu, Pengfei; Erez, Ayelet; Nagamani, Sandesh C Sreenath; Dhar, Shweta U; Kołodziejska, Katarzyna E; Dharmadhikari, Avinash V; Cooper, M Lance; Wiszniewska, Joanna; Zhang, Feng; Withers, Marjorie A; Bacino, Carlos A; Campos-Acevedo, Luis Daniel; Delgado, Mauricio R; Freedenberg, Debra; Garnica, Adolfo; Grebe, Theresa A; Hernández-Almaguer, Dolores; Immken, LaDonna; Lalani, Seema R; McLean, Scott D; Northrup, Hope; Scaglia, Fernando; Strathearn, Lane; Trapane, Pamela; Kang, Sung-Hae L; Patel, Ankita; Cheung, Sau Wai; Hastings, P J; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Lupski, James R; Bi, Weimin


    Complex genomic rearrangements (CGRs) consisting of two or more breakpoint junctions have been observed in genomic disorders. Recently, a chromosome catastrophe phenomenon termed chromothripsis, in which numerous genomic rearrangements are apparently acquired in one single catastrophic event, was described in multiple cancers. Here, we show that constitutionally acquired CGRs share similarities with cancer chromothripsis. In the 17 CGR cases investigated, we observed localization and multiple copy number changes including deletions, duplications, and/or triplications, as well as extensive translocations and inversions. Genomic rearrangements involved varied in size and complexities; in one case, array comparative genomic hybridization revealed 18 copy number changes. Breakpoint sequencing identified characteristic features, including small templated insertions at breakpoints and microhomology at breakpoint junctions, which have been attributed to replicative processes. The resemblance between CGR and chromothripsis suggests similar mechanistic underpinnings. Such chromosome catastrophic events appear to reflect basic DNA metabolism operative throughout an organism's life cycle.

  2. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Roda, Manuel; Zegers, Tanja E; Oosthoek, Jelmer H P


    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with ...

  3. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: a butterfly catastrophe

    CERN Document Server

    García-Ramos, J E; Arias, J M; Freire, E


    Background: In the last few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in Nuclear Physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model, that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian, using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and to compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q-like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and ...

  4. A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes. (United States)

    Kent, Adrian


    Recent articles by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely solely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. Nonetheless, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expectation value-a good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, p(catastrophe) future generations, a catastrophe risk no higher than approximately 10(-15) per year would be required for consistency with established policy for radiation hazard risk minimization. Allowing for risk aversion and for future lives, a respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. In summary, the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated by BJSW (initially), by DDH, and by other commentators. Future policy on catastrophe risks would be more rational, and more deserving of public trust, if acceptable risk bounds were generally agreed upon ahead of time and if serious research on whether those bounds could indeed be guaranteed was carried out well in advance of any hypothetically risky experiment, with the relevant debates involving experts with no stake in the experiments under consideration.

  5. Heritability of pain catastrophizing and associations with experimental pain outcomes: a twin study. (United States)

    Trost, Zina; Strachan, Eric; Sullivan, Michael; Vervoort, Tine; Avery, Ally R; Afari, Niloofar


    This study used a twin paradigm to examine genetic and environmental contributions to pain catastrophizing and the observed association between pain catastrophizing and cold-pressor task (CPT) outcomes. Male and female monozygotic (n = 206) and dizygotic twins (n = 194) from the University of Washington Twin Registry completed a measure of pain catastrophizing and performed a CPT challenge. As expected, pain catastrophizing emerged as a significant predictor of several CPT outcomes, including cold-pressor Immersion Tolerance, Pain Tolerance, and Delayed Pain Rating. The heritability estimate for pain catastrophizing was found to be 37% with the remaining 63% of variance attributable to unique environmental influence. Additionally, the observed associations between pain catastrophizing and CPT outcomes were not found attributable to shared genetics or environmental exposure, which suggests a direct relationship between catastrophizing and experimental pain outcomes. This study is the first to examine the heritability of pain catastrophizing and potential processes by which pain catastrophizing is related to experimental pain response.

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma I Al-Beladi


    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS. We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS, which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  7. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin. (United States)

    Al-Beladi, Fatma I


    Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS). We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  8. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing. (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Yang, Rui; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso


    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea.

  9. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso


    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea.

  10. The solution of the Painlevé equations as special functions of catastrophes, defined by a rejection in these equations of terms with derivative

    CERN Document Server

    Kiselev, O M


    The relation between the Painleve equations and the algebraic equations with the catastrophe theory point of view are considered. The asymptotic solutions with respect to the small parameter of the Painleve equations different types are discussed. The qualitative analysis of the relation between algebraic and fast oscillating solutions is done for Painleve-2 as an example.

  11. Evolutionary Catastrophes: The Science of Mass Extinction (United States)

    Hames, Willis

    The stories behind the greatest scientific controversies are more than entertaining. They provide windows into the evolution of scientific thought, scientific method, technological achievements and their research applications, and the influence of individuals and personalities on a community's acceptance of a theory Epic controversies surround the theories for Earth's mass extinction events, and none is more spectacular than the continuing polemic over the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) mass extinctions and ultimate demise of the dinosaurs.In contrast to other great scientific debates, we tend to view the K/T event in the context of a crime scene, where the spectacularly diverse flora and fauna of a primordial Eden were unwittingly slain by one or more ruthless and efficient killers. A “foreign” suspect has been fingered; an intruder that killed suddenly and randomly has become the principal suspect. The main clues uncovered in the case include a global K/T iridium anomaly; shock-deformed minerals in K/T boundary sediments; the ˜6 5 m.y-old Deccan flood-basalt province, which covered an area roughly the size of France; and the ˜6 5 m.y-old Chicxulub impact crater in the Yucatan peninsula, which seems to be among the largest to have formed in the inner solar system over the past billion years.

  12. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer


    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  13. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence. (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T


    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  14. A case of seronegative catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. (United States)

    Shreders, Amanda; Bar, Michael


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (CAPS) is a rare syndrome associated with multiorgan failure that carries a high mortality rate. It has been defined previously by the presence of autoantibodies in a patient with acute multiorgan failure as a result of small vessel occlusion by multiple thrombi. We report a patient who meets all criteria of CAPS except for persistent seronegativity.

  15. Enabling Unity of Effort in Response Activities during Complex Catastrophes (United States)


    catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water , winddriven water , tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption , landslide...the Insurrection Act, and the Stafford Act. Perhaps the most efficient means to achieve unity of effort would be to consolidate all forces under a...possible under our federalist system of government, where respective authorities are divided between federal, state and local jurisdictions. The most

  16. Alignment of Lyapunov Vectors: A Quantitative Criterion to Predict Catastrophes? (United States)

    Beims, Marcus W.; Gallas, Jason A. C.


    We argue that the alignment of Lyapunov vectors provides a quantitative criterion to predict catastrophes, i.e. the imminence of large-amplitude events in chaotic time-series of observables generated by sets of ordinary differential equations. Explicit predictions are reported for a Rössler oscillator and for a semiconductor laser with optoelectronic feedback.

  17. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.


    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of incre

  18. Catastrophic fire deaths: the numbers are back up. (United States)

    Tremblay, K J


    The number of catastrophic multiple-death fires in the United States rose in 1993 from the record low of 1992 to a level more consistent with that of recent years. Despite our efforts to highlight risk factors, we continue to see the same problems year after year.

  19. 7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions. (United States)


    ... total household income at or below the national poverty level for a family of four, or less than 50..., provided that you execute a High Risk Land Exclusion Option and obtain a catastrophic risk protection... the landowners must agree in writing to such arrangement and have their social security number...

  20. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports. (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.


    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  1. [Establishing the personal identity of the victims in aviation catastrophes]. (United States)

    Abramov, S S; Alekseev, I V; Gedygushev, I A; Zaĭtsev, A B; Isaev, Iu S; Nedel'ko, N F; Miller, V V; Proskurin, V N; Khaĭrulin, E G; Shilin, A V


    Algorithm of organization measures and expert investigations is proposed, based on experience gained in expert studies during liquidation of aircraft catastrophes. It permits effective classification, differentiation, and identification of victims and is based on traditional and high technological methods of investigation.

  2. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.


    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335

  3. The relationship of adult attachment dimensions to pain-related fear, hypervigilance, and catastrophizing. (United States)

    McWilliams, Lachlan A; Asmundson, Gordon J G


    Despite the prominence of fear-avoidance models of chronic pain, there is a paucity of research regarding the origins of pain-related fear. Based on the premise that insecure attachment could be a developmentally based origin of elevated fear of pain, associations between adult attachment dimensions and constructs included in fear-avoidance models of chronic pain were investigated. Consistent with Bartholomew and Horowitz's [Bartholomew K, Horowitz LM. Attachment styles among young adults: a test of a four-category model. J Pers Soc Psychol 1991;61:226-44.] model, attachment was conceptualized as being comprised of a model of self dimension (i.e., degree of anxiety regarding rejection based on beliefs of personal unworthiness) and a model of others dimension (i.e., degree of interpersonal mistrust and discomfort with interpersonal closeness). A large university student sample free of chronic pain (N=278) completed a measure of adult romantic attachment (i.e., Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire; [Brennan KA, Clark CL, Shaver PR. Self-report measurement of adult attachment: an integrative overview. In: Simpson JA, Rholes WS, editors. Attachment theory and close relationships. New York: The Guilford Press, 1998. p. 46-76.]), the Fear of Pain Questionnaire-III [McNeil DW, Rainwater AJ. Development of the fear of pain questionnaire - III. J Behav Med 1998;21:389-410.], the Pain Vigilance and Awareness Questionnaire [McCracken LM. Attention to pain in persons with chronic pain: a behavioural approach. Behav Ther 1997;28:271-84.], and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale [Sullivan MJ, Bishop SR, Pivik J. The pain catastrophizing scale: development and validation. Psychol Assess 1995;7:24-532.]. It was hypothesized that insecure attachment would be positively associated with reports of pain-related fear, hypervigilance, and catastrophizing and that the model of self dimension would be the attachment variable most strongly associated with these variables

  4. Catastrophes in non-equilibrium many-particle wave functions: universality and critical scaling (United States)

    Mumford, J.; Kirkby, W.; O’Dell, D. H. J.


    As part of the quest to uncover universal features of quantum dynamics, we study catastrophes that form in simple many-particle wave functions following a quench, focusing on two-mode systems that include the two-site Bose–Hubbard model, and under some circumstances optomechanical systems and the Dicke model. When the wave function is plotted in Fock space certain characteristic shapes, that we identify as cusp catastrophes, appear under generic conditions. In the vicinity of a cusp the wave function takes on a universal structure described by the Pearcey function and obeys scaling relations which depend on the total number of particles N. In the thermodynamic limit (N\\to ∞ ) the cusp becomes singular, but at finite N it is decorated by an interference pattern. This pattern contains an intricate network of vortex–antivortex pairs, initiating a theory of topological structures in Fock space. In the case where the quench is a δ-kick the problem can be solved analytically and we obtain scaling exponents for the size and position of the cusp, as well as those for the amplitude and characteristic length scales of its interference pattern. Finally, we use these scalings to describe the wave function in the critical regime of a {{{Z}}}2 symmetry-breaking dynamical phase transition.

  5. Le gouvernement mondial des catastrophes « naturelles »

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandrine Revet


    Full Text Available Depuis la fin des années 1980, une tentative de gouvernement international des catastrophes dites « naturelles » a progressivement vu le jour. Celui-ci prétend coordonner à l’échelle internationale des actions relevant à la fois de la prévention des risques et de la gestion de crise. L’article propose de décrire ce processus en en retraçant les grandes étapes, depuis la Décennie internationale pour la prévention des catastrophes naturelles de l’ONU (1990-1999 jusqu’aux négociations ayant mené au Cadre d’action de Hyogo (CAH, 2005-2015. Il mettra en lumière les grandes tensions qui ont animé ce processus et qui révèlent les différentes approches adoptées face aux catastrophes naturelles : mettre en place des politiques de prévention qui misent sur la transformation en profondeur des choix de développement ou insister sur les capacités technologiques de prévision, de communication de l’alerte et de gestion des crises provoquées par les catastrophes lorsqu’elles surviennent ? Nous nous intéresserons enfin aux enjeux qui seront soulevés en 2015 par les négociations du prochain cadre d’action international CAH2 lors de la conférence mondiale qui se tiendra à Sendaï au Japon.

  6. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.


    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  7. Evidence for Middle Amazonian catastrophic flooding and glaciation on Mars (United States)

    Rodríguez, J. Alexis P.; Gulick, Virginia C.; Baker, Victor R.; Platz, Thomas; Fairén, Alberto G.; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Rice, James W.; Glines, Natalie


    Early geologic investigations of Mars revealed some of the largest channels in the Solar System (outflow channels), which appear to have mostly developed ∼3 byr ago. These channels have been the subject of much scientific inquiry since the 1970s and proposed formative processes included surface erosion by catastrophic floods, glaciers, debris flows and lava flows. Based on the analysis of newly acquired Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Context (CTX, 5.15-5.91 m/pixel) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE, 25-50 cm/pixel) image data, we have identified a few locations contained within relatively narrow canyons of the southern circum-Chryse outflow channels that retain well-preserved decameter/hectometer-scale landform assemblages. These terrains include landforms consistent in shape, dimension and overall assemblage to those produced by catastrophic floods, and at one location, to glacial morphologies. Impact crater statistics for four of these surfaces, located within upstream, midstream and downstream outflow channel surfaces, yield an age estimate of ∼600 myr. This suggests that the southern circum-Chryse outflow channels were locally resurfaced by some of the most recent catastrophic floods on the planet, and that these floods coexisted within regional glacier environments as recently as during the Middle Amazonian.

  8. Psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions: perspectives on comprehensive modeling of individual pain adaptation. (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A; Zautra, Alex J


    Pain is a complex construct that contributes to profound physical and psychological dysfunction, particularly in individuals coping with chronic pain. The current paper builds upon previous research, describes a balanced conceptual model that integrates aspects of both psychological vulnerability and resilience to pain, and reviews protective and exacerbating psychosocial factors to the process of adaptation to chronic pain, including pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, and positive psychological resources predictive of enhanced pain coping. The current paper identifies future directions for research that will further enrich the understanding of pain adaptation and espouses an approach that will enhance the ecological validity of psychological pain coping models, including introduction of advanced statistical and conceptual models that integrate behavioral, cognitive, information processing, motivational and affective theories of pain.


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐曾和; 徐小荷


    The rockburst of the coal pillar under a thick hard roof stratum is modelled as the instability failure problem of coal pillars under strata subject to elastic support. The instability mechanism of rockburst is studied by applying cusp catastrophic theory. The effects of the stiffness ratio of the system and loads imposed on the system on the rockburst are explicated.The factors affecting rockbursts are discussed. Based on them, the "evolution process, the forewarning regularity and forewarning sings of rockbursts are studied. It is indicated that the subsidence velocity of roof stratum, which increases quickly and tends to infinity, is the forewarning measurable signs of the rockbursts of coal pillar.

  10. Situational vs. dispositional measurement of catastrophizing: Associations with pain responses in multiple samples (United States)

    Campbell, Claudia M.; Kronfli, Tarek; Buenaver, Luis F.; Smith, Michael T.; Berna, Chantal; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A.; Edwards, Robert R.


    Catastrophizing is widely recognized as an important risk factor for adverse pain-related outcomes. However, questions remain surrounding the details of its assessment. In particular, recent laboratory studies suggest that evaluation of “situational” catastrophizing (i.e., catastrophizing measured during or directly after the administration of noxious stimulation) may provide information distinct from that obtained by standard, or “dispositional” measures which assess individuals’ recall of catastrophizing in daily life. However, comparatively little research has systematically investigated the inter-relationships and properties of these two different forms of pain-related catastrophizing. The current study evaluated both situational and dispositional catastrophizing measures within multiple samples: healthy individuals (N=84), patients with painful temporomandibular joint disorders (TMD; N=48), and patients with painful arthritis (N=43). All participants first completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS)49, and then underwent psychophysical pain testing, which included heat, cold, and pressure pain. Participants then completed a situational catastrophizing measure with reference to the laboratory pain he/she had just undergone. Situational catastrophizing scores were not significantly correlated with dispositional PCS scores in the healthy participants and arthritis patients, though they were associated in TMD patients. Situational catastrophizing was more strongly associated with experimental pain responses than dispositional PCS scores for the healthy subjects and arthritis patients. In general, higher levels of situational catastrophizing were associated with lower pain thresholds and higher pain ratings across all 3 samples. The findings highlight the importance of multi-dimensional assessment of pain-related catastrophizing, and suggests a role for measuring catastrophizing related to specific, definable events. PMID:20439057

  11. Blue sky catastrophe as applied to modeling of cardiac rhythms (United States)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.


    A new mathematical model for the electrical activity of the heart is proposed. The model represents a special singularly perturbed three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with one fast and two slow variables. A characteristic feature of the system is that its solution performs nonclassical relaxation oscillations and simultaneously undergoes a blue sky catastrophe bifurcation. Both these factors make it possible to achieve a phenomenological proximity between the time dependence of the fast component in the model and an ECG of the human heart.

  12. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt;


    induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...

  13. Depolymerizing kinesins Kip3 and MCAK shape cellular microtubule architecture by differential control of catastrophe. (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Gell, Christopher; Bormuth, Volker; Howard, Jonathon


    Microtubules are dynamic filaments whose ends alternate between periods of slow growth and rapid shortening as they explore intracellular space and move organelles. A key question is how regulatory proteins modulate catastrophe, the conversion from growth to shortening. To study this process, we reconstituted microtubule dynamics in the absence and presence of the kinesin-8 Kip3 and the kinesin-13 MCAK. Surprisingly, we found that, even in the absence of the kinesins, the microtubule catastrophe frequency depends on the age of the microtubule, indicating that catastrophe is a multistep process. Kip3 slowed microtubule growth in a length-dependent manner and increased the rate of aging. In contrast, MCAK eliminated the aging process. Thus, both kinesins are catastrophe factors; Kip3 mediates fine control of microtubule length by narrowing the distribution of maximum lengths prior to catastrophe, whereas MCAK promotes rapid restructuring of the microtubule cytoskeleton by making catastrophe a first-order random process.

  14. Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann


    Full Text Available The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author points out Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz (Witkacy, especially his theory of metaphysical feelings and their disappearance in mass society. Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz, known among the philosophy critics as neohumanistic catastrophist, has foreseen many categories which are typical for Habermas’ and Baudrillard’s writings. The neo-catastrophic mechanisms has a serious consequences for the condition of postmodern subject, the more so because the main part of the neocatastrophism is the strong conviction that there is no escape. The author, besides the main thesis mentioned above, highlights some common features between Baudillard’s and Habermas’ conceptions.

  15. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation



    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of pain catastrophizing that was mentioned previously. This finally leads to the question of whether we actually need a CCM of catastrophizing.

  16. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport


    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  17. "Till destruction sicken": the catastrophe of mind in Macbeth. (United States)

    Tarantelli, Carole Beebe


    The author examines the tragedy of Macbeth from the vertex of its portrait of the effects of the hero's abandonment to the "blindest fury of destructiveness" (Freud, 1930, p. 121), using aspects of psychoanalytic thought to illuminate the theme. She affirms that Macbeth's immediate transformation in phantasy from loyal subject to future assassin threatens to flood his psyche with the uncontainable energy of destruction and thus to produce a psychic catastrophe. The remainder of the play is then examined as a representation of Macbeth's attempts to defend himself from that catastrophe: the only objects whose existence he can tolerate are those that cannot challenge his possession of the crown, which leads him to attempt to destroy all opposition. Since this is impossible, his alternative is to denude his mind of its perception of the reality in which the actions of others will inevitably produce future transformations which he is unable to control. The play's last soliloquy anticipates the final state, the repose of emptiness; it portrays a mind, emptied of emotion, looking at a world which it has denuded of meaning.

  18. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (United States)

    Salle, Valery; Kontar, Loay; Maizel, Julien


    Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient's general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient's condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient's general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange. PMID:27833765

  19. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail:


    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  20. Catastrophe model of the accident process, safety climate, and anxiety. (United States)

    Guastello, Stephen J; Lynn, Mark


    This study aimed (a) to address the evidence for situational specificity in the connection between safety climate to occupational accidents, (b) to resolve similar issues between anxiety and accidents, (c) to expand and develop the concept of safety climate to include a wider range of organizational constructs, (d) to assess a cusp catastrophe model for occupational accidents where safety climate and anxiety are treated as bifurcation variables, and environ-mental hazards are asymmetry variables. Bifurcation, or trigger variables can have a positive or negative effect on outcomes, depending on the levels of asymmetry, or background variables. The participants were 1262 production employees of two steel manufacturing facilities who completed a survey that measured safety management, anxiety, subjective danger, dysregulation, stressors and hazards. Nonlinear regression analyses showed, for this industry, that the accident process was explained by a cusp catastrophe model in which safety management and anxiety were bifurcation variables, and hazards, age and experience were asymmetry variables. The accuracy of the cusp model (R2 = .72) exceeded that of the next best log-linear model (R2 = .08) composed from the same survey variables. The results are thought to generalize to any industry where serious injuries could occur, although situationally specific effects should be anticipated as well.

  1. Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačev-Zavišić Branka


    Full Text Available Introduction. Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4 and triiodothyronine (T3. Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency. The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger autoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction, is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consequences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima. The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  2. Relationship of Fault Geometry to Catastrophic Outflow on Mars (United States)

    Davatzes, A.; Gulick, V.


    We present results from studies of large outflow channels on Mars that suggest fault morphology is a critical factor for the trapping and catastrophic release of water on Mars, resulting in large flooding events. On Earth, hot springs are commonly concentrated around fault relays, bends, and fault tips, where jointing forms in zones of concentrated stress promoting tensile failure. Examples of fault controlled hydrothermal activity have been documented in the Coso Geothermal Field in California, Southern Seismic Zone in Iceland, Waiotapu Geothermal Field in New Zealand, Killoran Fault in Ireland, and throughout the southwestern United States. On Earth, abrupt changes in the water table, as well as the formation of sand-boils and springs, are associated with earthquakes, and their spatial distribution is related to the geometry of the earthquake slip patch. A similar process may occur on Mars, where hydrothermal waters collect in highly fractured zones at fault relays, and are released catastrophically during an earthquake event. Two examples of large outflow channels on Mars, Mangala and Athabasca Valles, appear to be sourced in a relay zone. Other Martian examples show sourcing at fault bends and fault tips. Data from the instruments on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter will help us to further understand this mechanism by which large flood events may occur. High resolution images from HiRISE will be used to map these fault systems and estimate outflow rates, and data from CRISM will be used to identify regions of past high temperature fluid flow on the surface of Mars.

  3. Rituximab use in the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of the CAPS registry patients receiving rituximab. (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Morel, Nathalie; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Erkan, Doruk; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Espinosa, Gerard


    The catastrophic variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs developing over a short period of time. First-line treatment for the catastrophic APS is the combination of anticoagulation plus corticosteroids plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulin. Despite this regimen, the mortality remains high and new treatment options are needed. By a systematic review of the Catastrophic APS Registry (CAPS Registry), we identified 20 patients treated with rituximab. The purpose of this study is to describe the clinical manifestations, laboratory features, and outcomes of rituximab-treated CAPS patients. In addition, the rationale for using rituximab in catastrophic APS is discussed.

  4. Agricultural Mechanism of Spreading Catastrophe Risk in China and Legislation Conception

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    This paper introduces agricultural catastrophe and its characteristics,and conducts comparative analysis on existing mechanism of spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,indicating that the mechanism of administrative remedy has the greatest efficiency and highest cost;the mechanism of social assistance has the lowest cost,but its efficiency is lowest and there are unstable factors;market mechanism,namely the insurance of agricultural catastrophe,is the rational choice of agricultural department in mechanism of risk spreading.This paper analyzes the status quo of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe,indicating that the main body of management in China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is missing.In addition,the market demand is critically scanty,and insurance of agricultural catastrophe lacks external development environment.The gap of China’s insurance law of agricultural catastrophe has become the greatest obstacle to the development of insurance of agricultural catastrophe.From legislative purpose,basic principle,nature,main body of legal relations,management range,policy support,supervision and management and so on,the legislation conception of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is put forward.

  5. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter? (United States)

    García-Palacios, Azucena; Botella, Cristina; Ribera-Canudas, Maria Victoria


    Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation). If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women) with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator) in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  6. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions. (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y


    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  7. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.


    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  8. Critical Amount of Resource in Containing Catastrophic Epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Xiaolong; Feng, Ling; Yang, Chun; Wang, Moming; Fan, Xiaoming; Hu, Yanqing


    During an epidemic control, the containment of the disease is usually achieved through increasing public health resource to quickly identify, quarantine and cure the infected population. However, the exact impact of this resource expenditure on the physical spreading dynamics remains unknown. In this work we find that the influence of resource expenditure exhibits extreme critical behaviour, which is the first order phase transition in nature. Specifically, if the amount of invested resource is below a critical value, a significant fraction of the total population will become infected; once it is more than that critical value, the disease outbreak can be effectively eradicated or contained. This finding implies that the government expenditure on infectious disease control needs to meet a certain critical threshold to be of any effectiveness. Otherwise, the outbreak could be catastrophic. We have validated our theoretical results on one real contact network and three typical social networks, with all of them e...

  9. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I


    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  10. Rotation-Dependent Catastrophic Disruption of Gravitational Aggregates

    CERN Document Server

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R


    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotat...

  11. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf


    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  12. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    CERN Document Server

    Wurster, James; Bate, Matthew R


    We investigate whether or not the low ionisation fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionisation chemistry assuming 0.1 micron grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13AU ca...

  13. Chasma Australe Mars: Structural Framework for a Catastrophic Outflow Origin (United States)

    Anguita, F.; Babin, R.; Benito, G.; Collado, A.; Gomez, D.; Rice, J. W.


    Chasma Australe is the most remarkable of the martian south pole erosional reentrants carved in the polar layered deposits. Ms chasma originates near the south pole and runs across the polar troughs over a distance of about 500 km. Its width varies between 20 and 80 km and, with a depth up to 1000 m, it reaches the bedrock. Following an idea put forward originally for Chasma Boreale, we propose for the genesis of Chasma Australe a mechanism of catastrophic outflow preceded by a tectonically induced powerful sapping process. A detailed geomorphological analysis of Chasma Australe shows erosional and depositional features that can be interpreted as produced by the motion of a fluid. Like other polar reentrants, Chasma Australe is clearly assymetric, with a steep eastern margin where basal and lateral erosion prevailed, and a gentler western side, where the stepped topography and bedrock spurs favored deposition.

  14. Stability of theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Wei-hui; WANG Yue-peng


    Stability related to theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction,which includes non-hydrostatic perfect elastic model and anelastic model, is discussed and analyzed in detail. It is proved that non-hydrostatic perfect elastic equations set is stable in the class of infinitely differentiable function. However, for the anelastic equations set, its continuity equation is changed in form because of the particular hypothesis for fluid, so "the matching consisting of both viscosity coefficient and incompressible assumption" appears, thereby the most important equations set of this class in practical prediction shows the same instability in topological property as Navier-Stokes equation,which should be avoided first in practical numerical prediction. In light of this, the referenced suggestions to amend the applied model are finally presented.

  15. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt


    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  16. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro


    of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper.......The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...

  17. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs. (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K


    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.

  18. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber


    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  19. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.


    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  20. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides. (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M


    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A332, 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  1. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria (United States)

    Gruber, M.


    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  2. Spatial structure induced by marine reserves shapes population responses to catastrophes in mathematical models. (United States)

    McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray


    Catastrophic events such as oil spills, hypoxia, disease, and major predation events occur in marine ecosystems and affect fish populations. Previous evaluations of the performance of spatial management alternatives have not considered catastrophic events. We investigate the effects of local and global catastrophic events on populations managed with and without no-take marine reserves and with fishing mortality rates that are optimized accounting for reserves. A spatial population dynamics model is used to explore effects of large, catastrophic natural mortality events. The effects of the spatial spread, magnitude, probability of catastrophe, and persistence of a catastrophic event through time are explored. Catastrophic events affecting large spatial areas and those that persist through time have the greatest effects on population dynamics because they affect natural mortality nonlinearly, whereas the probability and magnitude of catastrophic events result in only linear increases in natural mortality. The probability of falling below 10% or 20% of unfished abundance was greatest when a no-take marine reserve was implemented with no additional fishing regulations and least when a no-take marine reserve was implemented in addition to the maintenance of optimal fishing mortality in fished areas. In the absence of implementation error, maintaining abundance across space using restrictions on fishing mortality rates, regardless of the existence of a no-take marine reserve, decreased the probability of falling below 10% or 20% of unfished abundance.

  3. Analysis of Interlayer Connection Catastrophe Characteristics in Internet AS level Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-yuan Jia


    Full Text Available Based on CAIDA’s (cooperative association for Internet data analysis statistics at AS-level collected from April 2009 to April 2010, it is found that network size, degree correlations and clustering have changed significantly three times. According to the definition of k-core, the Internet topology is divided into different levels. In this paper, by analyzing the changing connection on each level at the three time spots, we found that the connection difference between the highest and the lowest level varies cyclically. Before Internet has significant change, the connection difference between the highest and the lowest shell changes acutely. At that time point it is the later stage of the fluctuation period which is the accumulation of small fluctuation. The concept of catastrophe coefficient is proposed for quantifying the probability of Internet catastrophe so that the catastrophe coefficient of Internet could be calculated on real time, and the catastrophe time spots could be predicted. Using real data for verification, it turns out that catastrophe coefficient can accurately predict the "giant fluctuations" occurrence in the macroscopic structure. With the proposal of the concept of catastrophe coefficient, the research can play an important guiding role in understanding the actual network internal development and changes, analyzing the cause of Internet catastrophe, preventing devastating catastrophe, planning and further re-designing Ipv6.

  4. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. (United States)


    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit...

  5. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.


    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investiga

  6. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.


    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investig

  7. Impact of parental catastrophizing and contextual threat on parents' emotional and behavioral responses to their child's pain. (United States)

    Caes, Line; Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Goubert, Liesbet


    Limited research has addressed processes underlying parents' empathic responses to their child's pain. The present study investigated the effects of parental catastrophizing, threatening information about the child's pain, and child pain expression upon parental emotional and behavioral responses to their child's pain. A total of 56 school children participated in a heat pain task consisting of 48 trials while being observed by 1 of their parents. Trials were preceded by a blue or yellow circle, signaling possible pain stimulation (i.e., pain signal) or no pain stimulation (i.e., safety signal). Parents received either neutral or threatening information regarding the heat stimulus. Parents' negative emotional responses when anticipating their child's pain were assessed using psychophysiological measures- i.e., fear-potentiated startle and corrugator EMG activity. Parental behavioral response to their child's pain (i.e., pain attending talk) was assessed during a 3-minute parent-child interaction that followed the pain task. The Child Facial Coding System (CFCS) was used to assess children's facial pain expression during the pain task. Results indicated that receiving threatening information was associated with a stronger parental corrugator EMG activity during pain signals in comparison with safety signals. The same pattern was found for parental fear-potentiated startle reflex, particularly when the child's facial pain expression was high. In addition, parents who reported high levels of catastrophizing thought about their child's pain engaged, in comparison with low-catastrophizing parents, in more pain-attending talk when they received threatening information. The findings are discussed in the context of affective-motivational theories of pain.

  8. Gérard Brugnot, 2008, Les Catastrophes Naturelles, Paris, Le Cavalier Bleu, 127 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Callens


    Full Text Available La collection « idées reçues » se propose de faire le point sur les savoirs et les croyances à propos d’un thème donné. Le thème des « catastrophes naturelles » est présenté par Gérard Brugnot, qui commente 16 idées reçues sur ces risques majeurs, regroupées dans quatre chapitres : 1/ « il y a toujours eu des catastrophes naturelles, il y en aura toujours », 2/ « Des catastrophes vraiment toutes naturelles ? », 3/ « On peut réduire les effets des catastrophes naturelles », 4/ « Catastrophes n...

  9. Yoga attitudes in chronic low back pain: Roles of catastrophizing and fear of movement. (United States)

    Combs, Martha A; Thorn, Beverly E


    Chronic low back pain is a significant public health problem and, although underused, yoga may be an effective complementary treatment. The current study examined associations of pain catastrophizing and fear of movement with attitudes toward yoga in adults with chronic low back pain. Participants completed three quantitative questionnaires assessing specific constructs: beliefs about yoga, fear of movement, and pain catastrophizing. A semi-structured in-person interview was then conducted to obtain specific pain-related information. Hierarchical regression and mediational analyses were used to test hypotheses. Consistent with the fear-avoidance model of chronic pain, catastrophizing and fear of movement were negatively associated with yoga attitudes. Specifically, fear of movement was a mediator between catastrophizing and attitudes toward yoga. Individuals with higher levels of catastrophizing and fear of movement may be less likely to consider a pain treatment involving physical movement.

  10. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited) (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.


    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  11. Parent Pain and Catastrophizing Are Associated With Pain, Somatic Symptoms, and Pain-Related Disability Among Early Adolescents


    Wilson, Anna C; Moss, Ashley; Palermo, Tonya M.; Fales, Jessica L.


    Objective To examine associations between parental history of pain and catastrophizing and their adolescent’s pain, somatic symptoms, catastrophizing, and disability. Methods Participants included 178 youths aged 11–14 years recruited through public schools. Adolescents completed measures assessing pain characteristics, somatic symptoms, and pain catastrophizing. Parents reported on their own pain, and catastrophizing about their adolescent’s pain. Results About one quarter of the adolescents...

  12. Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area. (United States)

    Jiang, Dan; Hao, Guozhu; Huang, Liwen; Zhang, Dan


    A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.

  13. Is metacognition a causal moderator of the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety? A prospective study. (United States)

    Bailey, Robin; Wells, Adrian


    Psychological theories have identified a range of variables contributing to health anxiety, including, dysfunctional illness beliefs, catastrophic misinterpretation, somatosensory amplification and neuroticism. More recently, metacognitive beliefs have been proposed as important in health anxiety. This study aimed to test the potential causal role of metacognitive beliefs in health anxiety. A prospective design was employed and participants (n = 105) completed a battery of questionnaire at two time points (6 months apart). Results demonstrated that cognitive, personality and metacognitive variables were bi-variate prospective correlates of health anxiety. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that only metacognitive beliefs emerged as independent and significant prospective predictors of health anxiety. Moderation analysis demonstrated that metacognitive beliefs prospectively moderated the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety. Follow-up regression analysis incorporating the interaction term (metacognition × misinterpretation) showed that the term explained additional variance in health anxiety. The results confirm that metacognition is a predictor of health anxiety and it is more substantive than misinterpretations of symptoms, somatosensory amplification, neuroticism, and illness beliefs. These results may have major implications for current cognitive models and for the treatment of health anxiety.

  14. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  15. The Properties of Fragments from Catastrophic Disruption Events (United States)

    Giblin, I.; Martelli, G.; Farinella, P.; Paolicchi, P.; Di Martino, M.; Smith, P. N.


    We report and discuss the results from a series of catastrophic disruption experiments involving 21-cm spherical targets of alumina cement. These experiments were performed in the open air using a contact charge technique to simulate an impact at ∼6 km/s, typical of collision velocities between asteroids in the main belt. The 1992 experiments reported here, the most recent in an extensive experimental program initiated by Giuseppe Martelli before his death in 1994, follow directly from those described in I. Giblinet al.(1994a,Icarus110, 203-224), with a number of improvements to our instrumentation and analysis. By using two high-speed cameras at a mutual angle of 60° we have made possible a three-dimensional analysis of fragment velocities alongside the standard size, shape, ejection angle and rotation rate measurements which can easily be made from appropriately oriented single film records. In this paper we report on the results of the 1992 experiments, together with various unpublished data from 1989. We make a comparison between these sets of data and between our data and those of other researchers in this field. Also, we compare our results to those of the most recent semi-empirical model (SEM) of P. Paolicchiet al.(1996,Icarus121, 126-157) and to appropriate data concerning real asteroids, focusing on the dynamical families, which are believed to be remnants from the catastrophic disruption of precursor asteroids. A secondary purpose of this paper is to document our experiences and techniques in the implementation and analysis of these experiments. We find considerable variation in the slope of the fragment size distribution, even between closely similar experiments. Fragments are found to be slightly flatter and/or more elongated than those from some previous work, but in agreement with the previous study mentioned above. Fragment velocities are generally between 4 and 20 m/s with a few fast fragments observed up to 35 m/s. Only a weak correlation is

  16. The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo L. Giménez


    Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

  17. Experimental reduction of pain catastrophizing modulates pain report but not spinal nociception as verified by mediation analyses. (United States)

    Terry, Ellen L; Thompson, Kathryn A; Rhudy, Jamie L


    Pain catastrophizing is associated with enhanced pain; however, the mechanisms by which it modulates pain are poorly understood. Evidence suggests that catastrophizing modulates supraspinal processing of pain but does not modulate spinal nociception (as assessed by nociceptive flexion reflex [NFR]). Unfortunately, most NFR studies have been correlational. To address this, this study experimentally reduced catastrophizing to determine whether it modulates spinal nociception (NFR). Healthy pain-free participants (N = 113) were randomly assigned to a brief 30-minute catastrophizing reduction manipulation or a control group that received pain education. Before and after manipulations, 2 types of painful stimuli were delivered to elicit (1) NFR (single trains of stimuli) and (2) temporal summation of NFR (3 stimulations at 2 Hz). After each set of stimuli, participants were asked to report their pain intensity and unpleasantness, as well as their situation-specific catastrophizing. Manipulation checks verified that catastrophizing was effectively reduced. Furthermore, pain intensity and unpleasantness to both stimulation types were reduced by the catastrophizing manipulation, effects that were mediated by catastrophizing. Although NFRs were not affected by the catastrophizing manipulation, temporal summation of NFR was reduced. However, this effect was not mediated by catastrophizing. These results indicate that reductions in catastrophizing lead to reductions in pain perception but do not modulate spinal nociception and provides further evidence that catastrophizing modulates pain at the supraspinal, not the spinal, level.

  18. Examples of minimal-memory, non-catastrophic quantum convolutional encoders

    CERN Document Server

    Wilde, Mark M; Hosseini-Khayat, Saied


    One of the most important open questions in the theory of quantum convolutional coding is to determine a minimal-memory, non-catastrophic, polynomial-depth convolutional encoder for an arbitrary quantum convolutional code. Here, we present a technique that finds quantum convolutional encoders with such desirable properties for several example quantum convolutional codes (an exposition of our technique in full generality will appear elsewhere). We first show how to encode the well-studied Forney-Grassl-Guha (FGG) code with an encoder that exploits just one memory qubit (the former Grassl-Roetteler encoder requires 15 memory qubits). We then show how our technique can find an online decoder corresponding to this encoder, and we also detail the operation of our technique on a different example of a quantum convolutional code. Finally, the reduction in memory for the FGG encoder makes it feasible to simulate the performance of a quantum turbo code employing it, and we present the results of such simulations.

  19. Catastrophe,hysteresis and bifurcation of mode transition in scramjet engines and its model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    This paper describes a class of nonlinear phenomena existing in the hypersonic flow and supersonic combustion process of scramjet engines:catastrophe,hysteresis and bifurcation,and further finds out the general rules(topological invariance)for the stability boundaries of mode transition in scramjet engines.With this topological invariance,a topological approach is put forward to model the stability boundaries,which may contribute to a complexity reduction of high-dimensional modeling when con-sidering more perturbation parameters,and help to explore the physical laws of the nonlinear phe-nomena.Accordingly,this paper interprets the characteristic of combustion mode transition based on the cusp topological model in singular theories,and observes the bifurcation characteristic in com-bustion mode transition.Moreover,a modeling approach is proposed to mathematically describe the stability boundaries of combustion mode transition in scramjet engines,and the model has high ac-curacy comparing to the simulation data,which proves the validation of the basic ideas proposed in this paper.Finally,future research directions are proposed.

  20. Catastrophe, hysteresis and bifurcation of mode transition in scramjet engines and its model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU DaRen; CUI Tao; BAO Wen


    This paper describes a class of nonlinear phenomena existing in the hypersonic flow and supersonic combustion process of scramjet engines: catastrophe, hysteresis and bifurcation, and further finds out the general rules (topological invariance) for the stability boundaries of mode transition in scramjet engines. With this topological invariance, a topological approach is put forward to model the stability boundaries, which may contribute to a complexity reduction of high-dimensional modeling when con-sidering more perturbation parameters, and help to explore the physical laws of the nonlinear phe-nomena. Accordingly, this paper interprets the characteristic of combustion mode transition based on the cusp topological model in singular theories, and observes the bifurcation characteristic in com-bustion mode transition. Moreover, a modeling approach is proposed to mathematically describe the stability boundaries of combustion mode transition in scramjet engines, and the model has high ac-curacy comparing to the simulation data, which proves the validation of the basic ideas proposed in this paper. Finally, future research directions are proposed.

  1. Functional Catastrophe Analysis of Collapse Mechanism for Shallow Tunnels with Considering Settlement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang


    Full Text Available Limit analysis is a practical and meaningful method to predict the stability of geomechanical properties. This work investigates the pore water effect on new collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement. The analysis is performed within the framework of upper bound theorem. Furthermore, the NL nonlinear failure criterion is used to examine the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape and the minimum supporting pressure in shallow tunnels. Analytical solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory for the two different shape curves which describe the distinct characteristics of falling blocks up and down the water level are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle. By considering that the mechanical properties of soil are not affected by the presence of underground water, the strength parameters in NL failure criterion can be taken to be the same under and above the water table. According to the numerical results in this work, the influences on the size of collapsing block different parameters have are presented in the tables and the upper bounds on the loads required to resist collapse are derived and illustrated in the form of supporting forces graphs that account for the variation of the embedded depth and other factors.

  2. Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and Sao Paulo Water Supply Crisis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato M Coutinho

    Full Text Available The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

  3. Observational Constraints on the Catastrophic Disruption Rate of Small Main Belt Asteroids

    CERN Document Server

    Denneau, Larry; Fitzsimmons, Alan; Hsieh, Henry; Kleyna, Jan; Granvik, Mikael; Micheli, Marco; Spahr, T; Vereš, Peter; Wainscoat, Richard; Burgett, W S; Chambers, K C; Draper, P W; Flewelling, H; Huber, M E; Kaiser, N; Morgan, J S; Tonry, J L


    We have calculated 90% confidence limits on the steady-state rate of catastrophic disruptions of main belt asteroids in terms of the absolute magnitude at which one catastrophic disruption occurs per year (HCL) as a function of the post-disruption increase in brightness (delta m) and subsequent brightness decay rate (tau). The confidence limits were calculated using the brightest unknown main belt asteroid (V = 18.5) detected with the Pan-STARRS1 (Pan-STARRS1) telescope. We measured the Pan-STARRS1's catastrophic disruption detection efficiency over a 453-day interval using the Pan-STARRS moving object processing system (MOPS) and a simple model for the catastrophic disruption event's photometric behavior in a small aperture centered on the catastrophic disruption event. Our simplistic catastrophic disruption model suggests that delta m = 20 mag and 0.01 mag d-1 99% of main belt catastrophic disruptions in the size range to which this study was sensitive (100 m) are not impact-generated, but are instead due ...

  4. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma


    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  5. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome]. (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles


    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants.

  6. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power. (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay


    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.

  7. A depth refugium from catastrophic coral bleaching prevents regional extinction. (United States)

    Smith, Tyler B; Glynn, Peter W; Maté, Juan L; Toth, Lauren T; Gyory, Joanna


    Species intolerant of changing climate might avoid extinction within refugia buffered from extreme conditions. Refugia have been observed in the fossil record but are not well documented or understood on ecological time scales. Using a 37-year record from the eastern Pacific across the two most severe El Niño events on record (1982-1983 and 1997 1998) we show how an exceptionally thermally sensitive reef-building hydrocoral, Millepora intricata, twice survived catastrophic bleaching in a deeper-water refuge (> 11 m depth). During both events, M. intricata was extirpated across its range in shallow water, but showed recovery within several years, while two other hydrocorals without deep-water populations were driven to regional extinction. Evidence from the subfossil record in the same area showed shallow-water persistence of abundant M. intricata populations from 5000 years ago, through severe El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles, suggesting a potential depth refugium on a millennial timescale. Our data confirm the deep refuge hypothesis for corals under thermal stress.

  8. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer


    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  9. On growth rate hysteresis and catastrophic crystal growth (United States)

    Ferreira, Cecília; Rocha, Fernando A.; Damas, Ana M.; Martins, Pedro M.


    Different crystal growth rates as supersaturation is increasing or decreasing in impure media is a phenomenon called growth rate hysteresis (GRH) that has been observed in varied systems and applications, such as protein crystallization or during biomineralization. We have recently shown that the transient adsorption of impurities onto newly formed active sites for growth (or kinks) is sensitive to the direction and rate of supersaturation variation, thus providing a possible explanation for GRH [6]. In the present contribution, we expand on this concept by deriving the analytical expressions for transient crystal growth based on the energetics of growth hillock formation and kink occupation by impurities. Two types of GRH results are described according to the variation of kink density with supersaturation: for nearly constant density, decreasing or increasing supersaturation induce, respectively, growth promoting or inhibiting effects relative to equilibrium conditions. This is the type of GRH measured by us during the crystallization of egg-white lysozyme. For variable kink density, slight changes in the supersaturation level may induce abrupt variations in the crystal growth rate. Different literature examples of this so-called 'catastrophic' crystal growth are discussed in terms of their fundamental consequences.

  10. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome with concurrent thrombotic and hemorrhagic manifestations. (United States)

    Rangel, M L; Alghamdi, I; Contreras, G; Harrington, T; Thomas, D B; Barisoni, L; Andrews, D; Wolf, M; Asif, A; Nayer, A


    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a distinct autoimmune prothrombotic disorder due to pathogenic autoantibodies directed against proteins that bind to phospholipids. APS is characterized by arterial and venous thrombosis and their clinical sequelae. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare and often fatal form of APS characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis and ischemic injury resulting in multiorgan failure. Rarely, intravascular thrombosis in CAPS is accompanied by hemorrhagic manifestations such as diffuse alveolar hemorrhage. Here, we report a 43-year-old woman who presented with anemia, acute gastroenteritis, abnormal liver function tests, bilateral pulmonary infiltrates, and a systemic inflammatory response syndrome. The patient developed respiratory failure as a result of diffuse alveolar hemorrhage followed by acute renal failure. Laboratory tests disclosed hematuria, proteinuria, and reduced platelet count. Microbiologic tests were negative. A renal biopsy demonstrated acute thrombotic microangiopathy and extensive interstitial hemorrhage. Serologic tests disclosed antinuclear antibodies and reduced serum complement C4 concentration. Coagulation studies revealed the lupus anticoagulant and autoantibodies against cardiolipin, beta 2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. High-dose glucocorticoids and plasma exchange resulted in rapid resolution of pulmonary, renal, and hematological manifestations. This rare case emphasizes that CAPS can present with concurrent thrombotic and hemorrhagic manifestations. Rapid diagnosis and treatment may result in complete recovery.

  11. Investigating the outcomes of SPH models of catastrophic destruction (United States)

    Dell'Oro, A.; Cellino, A.; Paolicchi, P.; Tanga, P.

    Smooth particle hydro-dynamics (SPH) codes have proved able to simulate satisfactorily the shattering processes in high-energy collisions among asteroids, reproducing the major observational evidences. In particular, SPH models reproduce fairly well the size distributions of the members of some asteroid families. A considerable difference between SPH models and Semi-Empirical Models (SEM) is that in the former the asteroids are ground up into very small fragments, the size of which is limited by the resolution of the code. Moreover, the subsequent ballistic dynamical evolution, driven by their mutual gravitational attraction, would result in a significant re-accumulation into many bodies. On the contrary, ejection velocity fields predicted by SEM allow the reaccumulation into very few bodies, sometimes only the largest remnant. This difference is a critical issue for the interpretation of the observational data in order to understand the physics of the catastrophic destruction process, and the physical characteristics of the asteroids themselves. We present a new analysis of some SPH velocity fields aiming to shed light on the intrinsic differences between SPH models and SEMs.

  12. Catastrophic debris avalanche deposit of Socompa volcano, northern Chile (United States)

    Francis, P. W.; Gardeweg, M.; Ramirez, C. F.; Rothery, D. A.


    Between 10,000 and 500 yr ago the Socompa volcano in northern Chile experienced a catastrophic collapse of a 70 deg sector of the original cone, causing a debris avalanche that descended nearly 3000 m vertically and traveled more than 35 km from the volcano. The deposits cover some 490 sq km and have a minimum volume of 15 cu km. Parts of the original cone slumped in a nearly coherent form and are now preserved as large blocks more than 400 m high. The primary avalanche traveled northwestward over sloping ground before coming to rest transiently, forming a prominent marginal ridge, and then slid away northeastward to form a secondary flow, overriding much of the primary avalanche deposit. Abundant, prismatic, jointed dacite blocks within the debris avalanche deposit and a thin, fine-grained pumiceous deposit beneath it suggest that the collapse was triggered by magmatic activity and may have been accompanied by a violent lateral blast. Collapse was followed by eruption of pumiceous pyroclastic flows and extrusion of voluminous dacite domes.

  13. Catastrophic rockfalls and rockslides in the Sierra Nevada, USA (United States)

    Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Evans, Stephen G.; DeGraff, Jerome V.


    Despite having a low recorded historical incidence of landsliding, the Sierra Nevada has undergone large prehistoric and historical rockfalls and rockslides that could be potentially catastrophic if they occurred today in the more densely populated parts of the region. Several large documented rockfall and rockslides have been triggered either by strong seismic shaking or long periods of unusually wet weather; however, in several instances no obvious triggering event can be identified. The glaciated topography of the higher elevations of the SierraNevada has produced many relatively small falls and slides within relatively hard, massively jointed, granitic rocks; however, where exposed to weathering for long periods after glaciation, the oversteepened rock slopes are prone to uncommonly large falls and slides. At lower elevations on the nonglaciated slopes of the Sierra Nevada, rockslides commonly occur within more weathered granitic rocks, where the strength of the rock mass is typically affected by joint weathering and alteration of the intact rock to saprolite. Historical large rock-falls and rockslides in the Sierra Nevada have created additional secondary natural hazards, including debris flows and floods from the breaching of landslide dams that can be as hazardous as the initial rockfalls and rockslides.

  14. Quantum resonance catastrophe for conductance through a periodically driven barrier (United States)

    Thuberg, Daniel; Reyes, Sebastián A.; Eggert, Sebastian


    We consider the quantum conductance in a tight-binding chain with a locally applied potential which is oscillating in time. The steady state for such a driven impurity can be calculated exactly for any energy and applied potential using the Floquet formalism. The resulting transmission has a nontrivial, nonmonotonic behavior depending on incoming momentum, driving frequency, and the strength of the applied periodic potential. Hence there is an abundance of tuning possibilities, which allows finding the resonances of total reflection for any choice of incoming momentum and periodic potential. Remarkably, this implies that even for an arbitrarily small infinitesimal impurity potential it is always possible to find a resonance frequency at which there is a catastrophic breakdown of the transmission T =0 . The points of zero transmission are closely related to the phenomenon of Fano resonances at dynamically created bound states in the continuum. The results are relevant for a variety of one-dimensional systems where local AC driving is possible, such as quantum nanodot arrays, ultracold gases in optical lattices, photonic crystals, or molecular electronics.

  15. Chromothripsis: how does such a catastrophic event impact human reproduction? (United States)

    Pellestor, Franck


    The recent discovery of a new kind of massive chromosomal rearrangement, baptized chromothripsis (chromo for chromosomes, thripsis for shattering into pieces), greatly modifies our understanding of molecular mechanisms implicated in the repair of DNA damage and the genesis of complex chromosomal rearrangements. Initially described in cancers, and then in constitutional rearrangements, chromothripsis is characterized by the shattering of one (or a few) chromosome(s) segments followed by a chaotic reassembly of the chromosomal fragments, occurring during one unique cellular event. The diversity and the high complexity of chromothripsis events raise questions about their origin, their ties to chromosome instability and their impact in pathology. Several causative mechanisms, involving abortive apoptosis, telomere erosion, mitotic errors, micronuclei formation and p53 inactivation, have been proposed. The remarkable point is that all these mechanisms have been identified in the field of human reproduction as causal factors for reproductive failures and chromosomal abnormalities. Consequently, it seems important to consider this unexpected catastrophic phenomenon in the context of fertilization and early embryonic development in order to discuss its potential impact on human reproduction.

  16. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; LI Ai-wu; QI Yun-song


    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well as. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This plot contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions.

  17. Rhizome of life, catastrophes, sequence exchanges, gene creations, and giant viruses: how microbial genomics challenges Darwin. (United States)

    Merhej, Vicky; Raoult, Didier


    Darwin's theory about the evolution of species has been the object of considerable dispute. In this review, we have described seven key principles in Darwin's book The Origin of Species and tried to present how genomics challenge each of these concepts and improve our knowledge about evolution. Darwin believed that species evolution consists on a positive directional selection ensuring the "survival of the fittest." The most developed state of the species is characterized by increasing complexity. Darwin proposed the theory of "descent with modification" according to which all species evolve from a single common ancestor through a gradual process of small modification of their vertical inheritance. Finally, the process of evolution can be depicted in the form of a tree. However, microbial genomics showed that evolution is better described as the "biological changes over time." The mode of change is not unidirectional and does not necessarily favors advantageous mutations to increase fitness it is rather subject to random selection as a result of catastrophic stochastic processes. Complexity is not necessarily the completion of development: several complex organisms have gone extinct and many microbes including bacteria with intracellular lifestyle have streamlined highly effective genomes. Genomes evolve through large events of gene deletions, duplications, insertions, and genomes rearrangements rather than a gradual adaptative process. Genomes are dynamic and chimeric entities with gene repertoires that result from vertical and horizontal acquisitions as well as de novo gene creation. The chimeric character of microbial genomes excludes the possibility of finding a single common ancestor for all the genes recorded currently. Genomes are collections of genes with different evolutionary histories that cannot be represented by a single tree of life (TOL). A forest, a network or a rhizome of life may be more accurate to represent evolutionary relationships among

  18. Rhizome of life, catastrophes, sequence exchanges, gene creations and giant viruses: How microbial genomics challenges Darwin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicky eMerhej


    Full Text Available Darwin’s theory about the evolution of species has been the object of considerable dispute. In this review, we have described seven key principles in Darwin’s book The Origin of Species and tried to present how genomics challenge each of these concepts and improve our knowledge about evolution. Darwin believed that species evolution consists on a positive directional selection ensuring the survival of the fittest. The most developed state of the species is characterized by increasing complexity. Darwin proposed the theory of descent with modification according to which all species evolve from a single common ancestor through a gradual process of small modification of their vertical inheritance. Finally, the process of evolution can be depicted in the form of a tree. However, microbial genomics showed that evolution is better described as the biological changes over time." The mode of change is not unidirectional and does not necessarily favors advantageous mutations to increase fitness it is rather subject to random selection as a result of catastrophic stochastic processes. Complexity is not necessarily the completion of development: several complex organisms have gone extinct and many microbes including bacteria with intracellular lifestyle have streamlined highly effective genomes. Genomes evolve through large events of gene deletions, duplications, insertions and genomes rearrangements rather than a gradual adaptative process. Genomes are dynamic and chimeric entities with gene repertoires that result from vertical and horizontal acquisitions as well as de novo gene creation. The chimeric character of microbial genomes excludes the possibility of finding a single common ancestor for all the genes recorded currently. Genomes are collections of genes with different evolutionary histories that cannot be represented by a single tree of life. A forest, a network or a rhizome of life may be more accurate to represent evolutionary relationships

  19. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication. (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J


    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

  20. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes


    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  1. Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

  2. The role of positive traits and pain catastrophizing in pain perception. (United States)

    Pulvers, Kim; Hood, Anna


    A variety of biological, psychological, and social factors interact to influence pain. This article focuses on two distinct, but connected, psychological factors--positive personality traits and pain catastrophizing--and their link with pain perception in healthy and clinical populations. First, we review the protective link between positive personality traits, such as optimism, hope, and self-efficacy, and pain perception. Second, we provide evidence of the well-established relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain perception and other related outcomes. Third, we outline the inverse relationship between positive traits and pain catastrophizing, and offer a model that explains the inverse link between positive traits and pain perception through lower pain catastrophizing. Finally, we discuss clinical practice recommendations based on the aforementioned relationships.

  3. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands. (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S


    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.

  4. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change (United States)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.


    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  5. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry". (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard


    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  6. Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods (United States)

    Rebora, N.; Gabellani, S.; Rudari, R.; Silvestro, F.; Parodi, A.; Gochis, D.


    On November 4th, 2011, the city of Genoa, Italy, located between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains, was witness to a catastrophic flash flood. About 500 millimeters of rain -a third of the average annual rainfall- fell in approximately six hours. The waters that flooded the town center equated to an approximately 300 year flood event. Six people perished, commercial property was inundated, cars were swept away and many trees were uprooted. We analyze the performance of cloud-permitting (1 km) model simulations of the convective system responsible for this extreme event using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3) with its associated hydrological modeling extension ('WRF-Hydro') focusing on the utility of model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood prediction. WRF model skill is assessed with respect to specification of cloud microphysics, convection and land surface physics parameterizations. The QPF results strongly suggest an event dominated by comparatively shallow warm rain processes where local maxima were the product of both synoptic scale dynamics and orographic enhancement over the Apennine mountain range. Land and sea surface temperature forcing was assess but found to be secondary in importance. Streamflow prediction skill from the fully coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system was compared against observations and against offline or 'uncoupled' hydrological model runs, driven by several quantitative precipitation estimate (QPEs) products. The results illustrate the significant sensitivity of the predicted (simulated) streamflow event to QPF (QPE) skill and emphasize the importance of taking into account many factors and sources of error in the hydrometeorological prediction chain. The end product of this study is a comprehensive evaluation and justification for optimal configurations of the WRF-Hydro modeling system for high-impact Mediterranean flood events for use in future forecasting


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar


    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  8. Floating worlds and their phantoms in the aftermath of social catastrophes. (United States)

    Kimbles, Samuel


    In this paper the author describes certain kinds of images (phantoms) that appear in the aftermath of social catastrophes. These phantoms come with an underlying narrative structure, which the author describes as phantom narratives. Phantom narratives show how the unconscious, working at the group and individual levels, provides political and social contexts within which the individual may find a different kind of containment for these catastrophes. In this way their suffering may be potentially processed psychologically and related to symbolically.

  9. Assessing the Utility of Work Team Theory in a Unified Command Environment at Catastrophic Incidents (United States)


    Key to Unified Command. Fire Management Notes, Vol. 49, Number 1; (1988), pp. 8-9. North, Robert C.; Koch, Jr., Howard E.; Zinnes , Dina A., The...announced its intent to issue a tentative interim agreement this 98 North, Robert C.; Koch, Jr., Howard ...E.; Zinnes , Dina A. “The Integrative Functions of Conflict,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 4, No. 3, (Sept., 1960), 355-374 (355). 64

  10. Metacognitive beliefs moderate the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety. (United States)

    Bailey, Robin; Wells, Adrian


    Catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily symptoms have a central role in cognitive-behavioural models of health anxiety. However, the metacognitive (S-REF) model postulates that psychological disturbance is linked more to beliefs about thinking i.e., metacognition. Equally the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety should be moderated by metacognition, in particular negative beliefs about the uncontrollability and danger of thinking (MCQNeg). Participants (N = 351) completed measures to examine the relationship between these variables. Results indicated positive relationships between metacognition, catastrophic misinterpretation, and health anxiety. Moderation analysis showed that the effect of catastrophic misinterpretations on health anxiety was explained by the proposed interaction with metacognition. Follow-up regression analysis demonstrated the interaction term explained variance in health anxiety when controlling for other variables, and was a stronger unique predictor of health anxiety than catastrophic misinterpretation. Metacognition appears to be an important factor in the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety, and would have important implications for existing models and treatment.

  11. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai


    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  12. Relationships Between Refraining From Catastrophic Thinking, Repetitive Negative Thinking, and Psychological Distress. (United States)

    Sugiura, Tomoko; Sugiura, Yoshinori


    Skills to refrain from catastrophic thinking were negatively related to worry and a wide range of psychological distress. Repetitive negative thinking (including worry) is proposed as a common etiological factor for a wide range of psychological distress. Therefore, reduced repetitive negative thinking would mediate the negative relation between refraining from catastrophic thinking and psychological distress (depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsessions and compulsions). As an overlap between five indices of psychological distress was expected, we first computed latent factors underlying them, which were then predicted by refraining from catastrophic thinking and repetitive negative thinking. Cross-sectional questionnaire data from 125 nonclinical voluntarily participating students (M age = 19.0 years, SD = 3.6; 54% women) supported the predictions: refraining from catastrophic thinking was negatively correlated with depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsession and compulsion. Repetitive negative thinking mediated the negative relationship between refraining from catastrophic thinking and latent factors underlying psychological distress (Fear and Distress). Refraining from catastrophic thinking may be negatively correlated with psychological distress due to its negative relation to repetitive negative thinking.

  13. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios (United States)

    Wein, A.


    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  14. Canyon formation constraints on the discharge of catastrophic outburst floods of Earth and Mars (United States)

    Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.; Lamb, Michael P.; Williams, Rebecca M. E.


    Catastrophic outburst floods carved amphitheater-headed canyons on Earth and Mars, and the steep headwalls of these canyons suggest that some formed by upstream headwall propagation through waterfall erosion processes. Because topography evolves in concert with water flow during canyon erosion, we suggest that bedrock canyon morphology preserves hydraulic information about canyon-forming floods. In particular, we propose that for a canyon to form with a roughly uniform width by upstream headwall retreat, erosion must occur around the canyon head, but not along the sidewalls, such that canyon width is related to flood discharge. We develop a new theory for bedrock canyon formation by megafloods based on flow convergence of large outburst floods toward a horseshoe-shaped waterfall. The model is developed for waterfall erosion by rock toppling, a candidate erosion mechanism in well fractured rock, like columnar basalt. We apply the model to 14 terrestrial (Channeled Scablands, Washington; Snake River Plain, Idaho; and Ásbyrgi canyon, Iceland) and nine Martian (near Ares Vallis and Echus Chasma) bedrock canyons and show that predicted flood discharges are nearly 3 orders of magnitude less than previously estimated, and predicted flood durations are longer than previously estimated, from less than a day to a few months. Results also show a positive correlation between flood discharge per unit width and canyon width, which supports our hypothesis that canyon width is set in part by flood discharge. Despite lower discharges than previously estimated, the flood volumes remain large enough for individual outburst floods to have perturbed the global hydrology of Mars.

  15. Does changing pain-related knowledge reduce pain and improve function through changes in catastrophizing? (United States)

    Lee, Hopin; McAuley, James H; Hübscher, Markus; Kamper, Steven J; Traeger, Adrian C; Moseley, G Lorimer


    Evidence from randomized controlled studies shows that reconceptualizing pain improves patients' knowledge of pain biology, reduces catastrophizing thoughts, and improves pain and function. However, causal relationships between these variables remain untested. It is hypothesized that reductions in catastrophizing could mediate the relationship between improvements in pain knowledge and improvements in pain and function. To test this causal mechanism, we conducted longitudinal mediation analyses on a cohort of 799 patients who were exposed to a pain education intervention. Patients provided responses to the neurophysiology of pain questionnaire, catastrophic thoughts about pain scale, visual analogue pain scale, and the patient specific functional scale, at baseline, 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up. With adjustment for potential confounding variables, an improvement in pain biology knowledge was significantly associated with a reduction in pain intensity (total effect = -2.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.96 to -1.44). However, this effect was not mediated by a reduction in catastrophizing (indirect effect = -0.16, 95% CI = -0.36 to 0.02). This might be due to a weak, nonsignificant relationship between changes in catastrophizing and pain intensity (path b = 0.19, 95% CI = -0.03 to 0.41). Similar trends were found in models with function as the outcome. Our findings indicate that change in catastrophizing did not mediate the effect of pain knowledge acquisition on change in pain or function. The strength of this conclusion is moderated, however, if patient-clinician relational factors are conceptualized as a consequence of catastrophizing, rather than a cause.

  16. Possibly Preventing Catastrophes: Hannah Arendt on Democracy, Education and Judging (United States)

    Monig, Julia Maria


    In this paper, I try to argue why it is worth turning to Hannah Arendt when reflecting on education. I am exploring her political theory in "The Human Condition" which, with the anthropologic category of natality, seems to offer an interesting approach for democratic education. Apparently everyone can participate in politics or even…

  17. Determinants of mitotic catastrophe on abrogation of the G2 DNA damage checkpoint by UCN-01. (United States)

    On, Kin Fan; Chen, Yue; Ma, Hoi Tang; Chow, Jeremy P H; Poon, Randy Y C


    Genotoxic stress such as ionizing radiation halts entry into mitosis by activation of the G(2) DNA damage checkpoint. The CHK1 inhibitor 7-hydroxystaurosporine (UCN-01) can bypass the checkpoint and induce unscheduled mitosis in irradiated cells. Precisely, how cells behave following checkpoint abrogation remains to be defined. In this study, we tracked the fates of individual cells after checkpoint abrogation, focusing in particular on whether they undergo mitotic catastrophe. Surprisingly, while a subset of UCN-01-treated cells were immediately eliminated during the first mitosis after checkpoint abrogation, about half remained viable and progressed into G(1). Both the delay of mitotic entry and the level of mitotic catastrophe were dependent on the dose of radiation. Although the level of mitotic catastrophe was specific for different cell lines, it could be promoted by extending the mitosis. In supporting this idea, weakening of the spindle-assembly checkpoint, by either depleting MAD2 or overexpressing the MAD2-binding protein p31(comet), suppressed mitotic catastrophe. Conversely, delaying of mitotic exit by depleting either p31(comet) or CDC20 tipped the balance toward mitotic catastrophe. These results underscore the interplay between the level of DNA damage and the effectiveness of the spindle-assembly checkpoint in determining whether checkpoint-abrogated cells are eliminated during mitosis.

  18. Abrupt Climate Change. Lessons from Integrated Catastrophic Risk Management. Interim Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermolieva, T.; Obersteiner, M.


    This paper is an extended version of the talks 'Uncertainty and Robust Solutions: Lessons from IIASA Case Studies on Catastrophic Risk Management and Economic Growth under Shocks' given on 12 June 2002 and 'Sink Technologies and Climate Risk Management' given on 15 May 2002 at IIASA's Greenhouse Gas Initiative seminars. Risks of disaster arise out of the combination of natural hazards and human activities. We argue that by divorcing the natural disaster issues from social and economic development, half of this disaster equation is ignored. The current pace of disaster development is undermining the markets and safety nets not only of developing countries. Far greater policy coherence is needed between economists, development planners, natural scientists and disaster managers in order to prevent catastrophic losses to human lives, livelihoods, and natural and economic assets. In this paper we present an integrated approach to catastrophic risk management that aims at more coherence and comprehensiveness. The models presented take into account spatial and temporal heterogeneity of catastrophes as well as institutional heterogeneity within a model of economic growth. Loss and gains profiles are functions of various strategies/requirements/goals of agents such as individuals, governments, producers, insurers and investors. GIS-based catastrophe models and stochastic optimization methods allow to guide policy analyses with respect to location specific risk exposures.

  19. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides. (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E


    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  20. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance. (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P


    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  1. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN


    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  2. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant


    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  3. Catastrophe model and its experimental verification of static loading rock system under impact load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    According to the catastrophe model for impact buckling of static loading structures, a new catastrophe model for impact loading failure of a static loading rock system was established, and one dimension (1D) catastrophe model was analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the furcation collection where catastrophe may take place is not only decided by mechanical system itself but also relates to exterior loading, which is different from the results obtained under mono-static loading where the bifurcation collection is only determined by mechanics of the system itself and has nothing to do with exterior loading. In addition, the corresponding 1D coupled static-dynamic loading experiment is designed to verify the analysis results of catastrophe model The test is done with Instron 1342 electroservo controlled testing system, in which medium strain rate is caused by monotony rising dynamic load. The parameters are obtained combining theoretical model with experiment. The experimental and theoretical curves of critical dynamic load vs static load are rather coincided, thus the new model is proved to be correct.

  4. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L.; Rempel, Alan W.; Skarbek, Rob M.; Roering, Joshua J.; Hilley, George E.


    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length h*h* that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  5. Targeting pain catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia using virtual reality exposure therapy: a proof-of-concept study


    Morris, Linzette Deidrè; Louw, Quinette Abegail; Grimmer, Karen Anne; Meintjes, Ernesta


    [Purpose] Pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance to exercises among patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. Alteration of pain catastrophizing in this group is thus warranted. This study aimed to provide proof-of-concept of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. [Subjects and Methods] An exploratory, case-controlled study was conducted (fibromyalgia syndrome group and matc...


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-xia; WAN Zhong-juan; YU Shao-peng; LUO Xin-zheng; SUN Guang-you


    Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thom Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.

  7. Tailored disconnection based on presurgical evidence in catastrophic epilepsy: report of 2 cases. (United States)

    Park, Jun T; Manjila, Sunil V; Tangen, Rachel B; Cohen, Mark L; Shahid, Asim M; Sweet, Jennifer A; Tuxhorn, Ingrid E; Miller, Jonathan P


    Catastrophic epilepsy in infants, often due to extensive cortical dysplasia, has devastating consequences with respect to brain development. Conventional lobar, multilobar, or hemispheric resection in these infants is challenging, carrying an increased operative risk compared with that in older children. Removing a larger tissue volume versus removing or disconnecting the epileptogenic region does not always guarantee better seizure outcome. The authors describe 2 infants with catastrophic epilepsy who benefited from individually tailored disconnections based on a hypothesized epileptogenic zone following intensive presurgical evaluation. Two infants with catastrophic epilepsy and epileptic spasms underwent leukotomies between 3 and 12 months of age. They were followed up postoperatively for 19-36 months. Both patients had 90%-100% seizure reduction and a significantly improved neurodevelopmental outcome without postoperative complication. Cortical malformation was seen in both patients. Modifications of established surgical disconnection techniques, tailored to each patient's specific epileptogenic zone, optimized seizure and neurodevelopmental outcomes while minimizing the risks associated with more extensive resections.


    Muller, Christina


    The California State University (CSU) Chancellor's Office reached an agreement with all CSU collective bargaining units and Employee Relations on a uniform Catastrophic (CAT) Leave Donation Program in 1992. The CAT Leave Donation Program allows employees to donate sick and/or vacation leave credits to employees who are incapacitated due to a catastrophic illness or injury and have exhausted all of their own leave credits. This also extends to employees with whom family illnesses are deemed catastrophic, thus requiring the employee to care for an immediate family member. Stakeholders include union represented employees who accrue leave credits as well as any employee who receives or donates hours of leave credits in the program. Other stakeholders include the family members and program administrators.

  9. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk


    has not previously been investigated. The authors hypothesized that perioperative escitalopram would reduce pain after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. METHODS: A total of 120 pain catastrophizing patients (selected using the pain catastrophizing scale as preoperative screening tool......) scheduled for TKA were randomized in a double-blind manner to either 10 mg escitalopram or placebo daily from preanesthesia to postoperative day 6 in addition to a standardized analgesic regime. The primary outcome was pain upon ambulation 24 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes were overall pain during well......-defined mobilizations and at rest from 2 to 48 h and from days 2 to 6, morphine equivalents, anxiety, depression, and side effects. RESULTS: Pain upon ambulation (mean [95% CI]) 24 h after surgery in the escitalopram versus placebo group was 58 (53 to 64) versus 64 (58 to 69), the mean difference being -5 (-13 to 3), P...

  10. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  11. Structural synaptic plasticity has high memory capacity and can explain graded amnesia, catastrophic forgetting, and the spacing effect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Knoblauch

    Full Text Available Although already William James and, more explicitly, Donald Hebb's theory of cell assemblies have suggested that activity-dependent rewiring of neuronal networks is the substrate of learning and memory, over the last six decades most theoretical work on memory has focused on plasticity of existing synapses in prewired networks. Research in the last decade has emphasized that structural modification of synaptic connectivity is common in the adult brain and tightly correlated with learning and memory. Here we present a parsimonious computational model for learning by structural plasticity. The basic modeling units are "potential synapses" defined as locations in the network where synapses can potentially grow to connect two neurons. This model generalizes well-known previous models for associative learning based on weight plasticity. Therefore, existing theory can be applied to analyze how many memories and how much information structural plasticity can store in a synapse. Surprisingly, we find that structural plasticity largely outperforms weight plasticity and can achieve a much higher storage capacity per synapse. The effect of structural plasticity on the structure of sparsely connected networks is quite intuitive: Structural plasticity increases the "effectual network connectivity", that is, the network wiring that specifically supports storage and recall of the memories. Further, this model of structural plasticity produces gradients of effectual connectivity in the course of learning, thereby explaining various cognitive phenomena including graded amnesia, catastrophic forgetting, and the spacing effect.

  12. Model and algorithm for optimization of rescue center location of emergent catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ding-wei; ZHANG Guo-xiang


    The location of rescue centers is a key problem in optimal resource allocation and logistics in emergency response.We propose a mathematical model for rescue center location with the considerations of emergency occurrence probability,catastrophe diffusion function and rescue function.Because the catastrophe diffusion and rescue functions are both nonlinear and time-variable,it cannot be solved by common mathematical programming methods.We develop a heuristic embedded genetic algorithm for the special model solution.The computation based on a large number of examples with practical data has shown us satisfactory results.

  13. Requiem for analytical psychology: a reflection on Jung's (anti)catastrophic psychology. (United States)

    Barreto, Marco Heleno


    This article is an interpretation of analytical psychology in the light of the catastrophic vision and dreams that Jung had in 1913 and 1914. It is shown how the guiding spirit of Jung's psychological project is to be found in that psychic material. Then it is proposed that the completion of the symbolic catastrophe displayed in Jung's last vision (1961) points to the end of the psychological foundations upon which analytical psychology is built, and thus to its cultural obsolescence, extensive to any psychology grounded in Jung's notion of 'soul'.

  14. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)


    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  15. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC


    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  16. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves. (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O


    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  17. Catastrophes and Conservation: Lessons from Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estes J.A.


    Full Text Available The Exxon Valdez spill is broadly perceived as an environmental catastrophe. However, expected catastrophic declines in the region's sea otter population cannot be demonstrated, not because they didn't occur but because the necessary information is lacking. Furthermore, efforts to rehabilitate oiled sea otters following the spill were extremely expensive and ineffective. Some improvements are possible with better planning. However, post-spill capture and rehabilitation probably can not be used to substantially reduce sea otter losses from future spills, and the use of such measures to conserve populations is unrealistic.

  18. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.


    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  19. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper


    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  20. Catastrophic Thresholds: A Synthesis of Concepts, Perspectives, and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D. Briske


    Full Text Available Research reported in this feature identifies a convergence of interpretations regarding the threshold dynamics of complex ecological systems. This convergence has arisen from a diverse set of investigations addressing rangeland ecosystem dynamics, disease transmission, and fluctuations in the populations of insect pests. Effective application of the threshold concept to ecosystem management will require development of more robust linkages between non-equilibrium theory and protocols to identify triggers that initiate threshold conditions, feedback loops that establish system resilience, and developmental trajectories and attributes of potential alternative stable states. Successful implementation of these theory/application linkages has the potential to underpin an operational framework of resilience-based ecosystem management that is founded upon the identification of structural indicators that are correlated with vulnerability or proximity to thresholds, rather than threshold identification per se. Several investigations indicate that thresholds are strongly influenced by scale; multiple cross-scale interactions demonstrate the need for greater knowledge and analyses to address scale-dependent processes, i.e., critical scales and scaling laws. This feature emphasizes the relevance of thresholds and non-equilibrium dynamics in multiple natural resource management applications and in so doing demonstrates the need for a more comprehensive and integrated ecological framework capable of quantitatively assessing dynamics at multiple scales to inform management and policy recommendations for optimal management and risk assessment.

  1. Relationship of depression and catastrophizing to pain, disability, and medication adherence in patients with HIV-associated sensory neuropathy. (United States)

    Lucey, Brendan P; Clifford, David B; Creighton, Jason; Edwards, Robert R; McArthur, Justin C; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer


    Few studies have examined how patients with chronic HIV infection cope with pain and how pain relates to medication adherence. Pain coping strategies such as catastrophizing are often associated with increased pain and disability and may also influence adherence to medications. The goal of our study is to assess the relationship of catastrophizing and depression to pain, disability, and medication adherence through questionnaires administered to a cross-section of patients with HIV-associated sensory neuropathy. In our study, 46 HIV-seropositive subjects completed questionnaires evaluating neuropathic pain severity, pain catastrophizing, pain-related disability, depressive symptoms, severity of antiretroviral therapy (ART) side effects, and common reasons for medication nonadherence. Hierarchical regression analysis indicated that pain catastrophizing correlated with severity of neuropathic pain independent of depressive symptoms. Furthermore, depressive symptoms were not associated with multiple factors independent of pain catastrophizing such as severity of neuropathic pain and pain-related disability. Pain catastrophizing, but not depressive symptoms, correlated with increased pain disability even after controlling for the effects of age and neuropathic pain. We also found that poor adherence attributed to fear of side effects or forgetfulness was associated with increased severity of neuropathic pain, while depressive symptoms but not catastrophizing correlated with ART side effects. These findings suggest that both catastrophizing and depressive symptoms are important factors to consider in the management of pain from HIV neuropathy and adherence to ART.

  2. 灾难性医疗支出研究%Study on Catastrophic Health Expenditure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Catastrophic heath expenditure occurs when the total out-of-pocket health payments are ≥40%of the household’s capacity to pay(non-living expenses). Studies have showed that the highest rate of catastrophic payments was 13%% in the world, and there were about 5% of poverty caused by serious illness. We should calculate the rate of catastrophic payment and poverty due to illness by using normative methods, and adopt comprehensive measures to prevent the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditure.%家庭的医疗费用支出等于或超过家庭支付能力(非生存支出)的40%时,该家庭即发生了灾难性医疗支出。世界范围内,家庭灾难性医疗支出发生率最高为13%,因病致贫发生率最高为5%。应采用规范的方法测算灾难性医疗支出发生率与因病致贫率,并采取综合措施防范灾难性医疗风险的发生。


    Catastrophic regional losses of poultry and livestock have caused environmental officials in North America to seek emergency on-farm disposal alternatives that pose less pollution risk to soil and shallow groundwater than burial. Bio-decomposition of remains followed by land application of the resul...

  4. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.


    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  5. Subamolide a induces mitotic catastrophe accompanied by apoptosis in human lung cancer cells. (United States)

    Hung, Jen-Yu; Wen, Ching-Wen; Hsu, Ya-Ling; Lin, En-Shyh; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Chen, Chung-Yi; Kuo, Po-Lin


    This study investigated the anticancer effects of subamolide A (Sub-A), isolated from Cinnamomum subavenium, on human nonsmall cell lung cancer cell lines A549 and NCI-H460. Treatment of cancer cells with Sub-A resulted in decreased cell viability of both lung cancer cell lines. Sub-A induced lung cancer cell death by triggering mitotic catastrophe with apoptosis. It triggered oxidant stress, indicated by increased cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and decreased glutathione level. The elevated ROS triggered the activation of ataxia-telangiectasia mutation (ATM), which further enhanced the ATF3 upregulation and subsequently enhanced p53 function by phosphorylation at Serine 15 and Serine 392. The antioxidant, EUK8, significantly decreased mitotic catastrophe by inhibiting ATM activation, ATF3 expression, and p53 phosphorylation. The reduction of ATM and ATF3 expression by shRNA decreased Sub-A-mediated p53 phosphorylation and mitotic catastrophe. Sub-A also caused a dramatic 70% reduction in tumor size in an animal model. Taken together, cell death of lung cancer cells in response to Sub-A is dependent on ROS generation, which triggers mitotic catastrophe followed by apoptosis. Therefore, Sub-A may be a novel anticancer agent for the treatment of nonsmall cell lung cancer.

  6. Subamolide A Induces Mitotic Catastrophe Accompanied by Apoptosis in Human Lung Cancer Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jen-Yu Hung


    Full Text Available This study investigated the anticancer effects of subamolide A (Sub-A, isolated from Cinnamomum subavenium, on human nonsmall cell lung cancer cell lines A549 and NCI-H460. Treatment of cancer cells with Sub-A resulted in decreased cell viability of both lung cancer cell lines. Sub-A induced lung cancer cell death by triggering mitotic catastrophe with apoptosis. It triggered oxidant stress, indicated by increased cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS production and decreased glutathione level. The elevated ROS triggered the activation of ataxia-telangiectasia mutation (ATM, which further enhanced the ATF3 upregulation and subsequently enhanced p53 function by phosphorylation at Serine 15 and Serine 392. The antioxidant, EUK8, significantly decreased mitotic catastrophe by inhibiting ATM activation, ATF3 expression, and p53 phosphorylation. The reduction of ATM and ATF3 expression by shRNA decreased Sub-A-mediated p53 phosphorylation and mitotic catastrophe. Sub-A also caused a dramatic 70% reduction in tumor size in an animal model. Taken together, cell death of lung cancer cells in response to Sub-A is dependent on ROS generation, which triggers mitotic catastrophe followed by apoptosis. Therefore, Sub-A may be a novel anticancer agent for the treatment of nonsmall cell lung cancer.

  7. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart


    The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre-1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post-storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breachi...

  8. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severeijns, R.; Vlaeyen, J.W.S.; Hout, M.A. van den


    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of pain catastrophiz

  9. Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes



    This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consu...

  10. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching (United States)

    Scott, J. F.


    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau-Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both.

  11. The 13 August 2010 catastrophic debris flows after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Q.; Zhang, S.; Li, W.L.; Asch, Th.W.J. van


    From 12 to 14 August 2010, heavy rainstorms occurred in the Sichuan province in SW China in areas which were affected by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, inducing catastrophic debris flows. This disaster is named as “the 8.13 debris flows”. The results of the research presented in this paper show that

  12. Rapid growth of an infectious intracranial aneurysm with catastrophic intracranial hemorrhage. (United States)

    Koffie, Robert M; Stapleton, Christopher J; Torok, Collin M; Yoo, Albert J; Leslie-Mazwi, Thabele M; Codd, Patrick J


    Infectious intracranial aneurysms are rare vascular lesions that classically occur in patients with infective endocarditis. We present a 49-year-old man with altered mental status and headache with rapid growth and rupture of an infectious intracranial aneurysm with catastrophic intracranial hemorrhage, and review issues related to open neurosurgical and endovascular interventions.

  13. Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.


    A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe h

  14. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas (United States)

    Parham, William D.


    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  15. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht


    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  16. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;


    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single......-event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...... understanding of catastrophic failure of IGBTs, the state-of-the-art research on their failure behaviors and failure mechanisms is presented in this paper. Moreover, various fault-tolerant design methods, to prevent converter level malfunctions in the event of IGBT failure, are also reviewed....

  17. Pedagogy in Catastrophic Times: Giroux and the Tasks of Critical Public Intellectuals (United States)

    Morris, Doug


    This article reflects on Henry Giroux's work as a critical public intellectual and the important role his work plays in fostering educated hope and insurgent possibilities during our present times of daily and longer term catastrophes. In addition to attempting to capture the experience of what it means and how it feels to read Giroux along with…

  18. 巨灾风险下的农作物保险费率厘定研究%Setting the Premium Rate of Crop Insurance under Catastrophic Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘小康; 谷洪波


    With the frequent occurence of natural disasters in recent years,agricultural insurance has become the one of the top priorities and hot spots for academic and practical departments study.Based on results of previous research,this paper focuses on the mathematical analysis and inquiry to set the crop insurance rates at all levels under catastrophic risk.Through analyzing relevant risk variables of crop losses,the article determines the pure premium rate via the fitted distribution method,then defines the reinsurance rates through the agricultural catastrophic risk measured by POT model in the extreme value theory,and combines the capital asset pricing method to develop the additional rate of agricultural insurance including the catastrophic risk.Finally,it studies some examples to help apply the theoretical framework.%近年来,随着自然灾害的频发,农业保险成为学术界和实践部门研究的重点和热点,研究成果不断涌现。本文在已有研究基础上,对巨灾风险下的农作物保险各层次费率厘定进行了数理分析与探究:利用拟合分布法厘定纯费率;利用极值理论超阈值模型度量农业巨灾风险确定再保险费率;结合资本资产定价法厘定包含巨灾风险的农业保险附加费率,最后,进行了应用举例。

  19. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis. (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z


    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R(2) = 0.69, Pshoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain catastrophizing on shoulder function, but not pain intensity. Optimism did not alter the influence of fear-avoidance beliefs on these outcomes. Level of Evidence

  20. Catastrophic injury in rugby union: is the level of risk acceptable? (United States)

    Fuller, Colin W


    Rugby union is a full contact sport with a relatively high overall risk of injury and a small specific risk of fatal and catastrophic spinal injury. Although catastrophic injuries in rugby union cause public concern and generate strong emotive reactions, the magnitude of society's concern about this type of injury is often dominated by people's perceptions rather than by actual levels of risk. This article assesses published values for the risk of catastrophic injuries in rugby union, evaluates these against the risk standards of the UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and compares the values with the risks associated with other common sport and non-sport activities. The assessment showed that the risks of sustaining a catastrophic injury in rugby union in England (0.8/100,000 per year), Ireland (0.9/100,000 per year) and Argentina (1.9/100,000 per year) were within the HSE's 'acceptable' region of risk (0.1-2/100,000 per year), whilst the risks in New Zealand (4.2/100,000 per year), Australia (4.4/100,000 per year) and Fiji (13/100,000 per year) were within the 'tolerable' region of risk (2-100/100,000 per year). The risk of sustaining a catastrophic injury in rugby union was generally lower than or comparable with the levels reported for a wide range of other collision sports, such as ice hockey (4/100,000 per year), rugby league (2/100,000 per year) and American Football (2/100,000 per year). In addition, the risk of catastrophic injury in rugby union was comparable with that experienced by most people in work-based situations and lower than that experienced by motorcyclists, pedestrians and car occupants. Whilst ranking risks provides an effective way of assessing their acceptability, it is recognized that representing risks by a single risk value can be misleading, as account must also be taken of the public's perception of the risks and the inherent differences in the types of risk being considered. However, an acceptable level of risk is often regarded as

  1. A study of the logical model of capital market complexity theories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    Analyzes the shortcomings of the classic capital market theories based on EMH and discloses the complexity essence of the capital market. Considering the capital market a complicated, interactive and adaptable dynamic system, with complexity science as the method for researching the operation law of the capital market, this paper constructs a nonlinear logical model to analyze the applied realm, focal point and interrelationship of such theories as dissipative structure theory, chaos theory, fractal theory, synergetics theory, catastrophe theory and scale theory, and summarizes and discusses the achievements and problems of each theory.Based on the research, the paper foretells the developing direction of complexity science in a capital market.

  2. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Sampson


    Full Text Available Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and re-insurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge corrected rainfall radar, meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim and a satellite rainfall product (CMORPH. Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find these loss estimates to be highly sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving observational datasets, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

  3. Error and repair catastrophes: A two-dimensional phase diagram in the quasispecies model (United States)

    Tannenbaum, Emmanuel; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.


    This paper develops a two-gene, single fitness peak model for determining the equilibrium distribution of genotypes in a unicellular population which is capable of genetic damage repair. The first gene, denoted by σvia, yields a viable organism with first-order growth rate constant k>1 if it is equal to some target “master” sequence σvia,0. The second gene, denoted by σrep, yields an organism capable of genetic repair if it is equal to some target “master” sequence σrep,0. This model is analytically solvable in the limit of infinite sequence length, and gives an equilibrium distribution which depends on μ≡Lɛ, the product of sequence length and per base pair replication error probability, and ɛr, the probability of repair failure per base pair. The equilibrium distribution is shown to exist in one of the three possible “phases.” In the first phase, the population is localized about the viability and repairing master sequences. As ɛr exceeds the fraction of deleterious mutations, the population undergoes a “repair” catastrophe, in which the equilibrium distribution is still localized about the viability master sequence, but is spread ergodically over the sequence subspace defined by the repair gene. Below the repair catastrophe, the distribution undergoes the error catastrophe when μ exceeds ln k/ɛr, while above the repair catastrophe, the distribution undergoes the error catastrophe when μ exceeds ln k/fdel, where fdel denotes the fraction of deleterious mutations.

  4. 基于条件价值评估法的中国巨灾风险保险模式定量设计——基于网络问卷调查的实证研究%The Quantitative Design of China Catastrophe Risk Insurance Mode Based on Contingent Valuation Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张旭升; 刘冬姣


    The paucity of empirical data of catastrophe risk loss makes the insurer to difficultly design the reasonable catastrophe risk insurance pattern. Based on the quasi-public goods properties of catastrophe risk insurance and the network questionnaire, this theory firstly quantitatively designs some main items of China catastrophe risk insurance mode according to consumer wish, which can overcomes the defects of general methods of non-life insurance premium rate making and also has positive significance to correct the market failure of catastrophe risk insurance.%巨灾风险损失经验数据的缺乏使得保险人设计合理的巨灾风险保险模式存在较大困难.基于巨灾风险保险的准公共物品性质,通过网络问卷调查,运用条件价值评估法,从消费者意愿角度对中国巨灾风险保险模式的主要项目进行定量设计,可以克服非寿险常规费率厘定方法的缺陷,对纠正巨灾风险保险市场失灵亦有积极意义.

  5. A Cusp Catastrophe Monitoring Model of Gravity Dam Stability and the Software Module Development%重力坝稳定性尖点突变监控模型及软件模块研发

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈浙新; 苏怀智; 陈兰


    Macroscopic gravity dam instability is manifested as a catastrophic phenomenon from a continuous to a discontinuous trait. As the theory and method to study the catastrophic phenomenon, catastrophe theory provided excellent approaches and tools for the stability analysis and evaluation of gravity dam. On the basis of dam safety deformation monitoring data, a cusp catastrophe monitoring model of gravity dam stability was established with the dam strain aging component as the state variable of dam system evolution. The software module was designed and developed with Delphi to achieve the real-time monitoring of gravity dam stability%重力坝失稳宏观表现为从一种连续性状突然跳跃到不连续性状的突变现象.以突变理论作为研究突变现象的理论和方法,可以为重力坝稳定性分析和评价提供很好的手段和工具.借助坝工领域知识和突变理论,基于大坝安全变形监测资料,以大坝变形时效分量为大坝系统演化的状态变量,研究并构建了重力坝稳定性的尖点突变监控模型,并利用Delphi进行了软件模块的设计和研发,实现借助软件系统对重力坝稳定性的实时监控.

  6. Energy analysis for damage and catastrophic failure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    The development history and current state of studies on the characteristics and mechanisms of deformation and failure of rock materials were briefly reviewed from the viewpoint of energy.The main scope and the achievable objectives of the energy-based research system were expatiated.It was validated by experiments that the damage process of rocks can be well described by the rock damage evolution equation established based on energy dissipation.It was found from the uniaxial compression and biaxial compression tests that only a small proportion of the total input energy in hard rocks is dissipated before peak load and a large proportion in soft rocks is dissipated before peak load.For both hard and soft rocks,the energy dissipated after peak load accounts for a greater proportion.More energy would be required for rock failure under equal biaxial compression than under unequal biaxial compression.The total absorbed energy is different for rock failure under high-rate loading and low-rate loading.More fragmented failure pattern usually corresponds to higher energy absorption.The mesoscopic analysis on the damage and failure of bedded salt rocks showed that the energy dissipation is prominent and the total absorbed energy for rock failure is low when cracks propagate in the weak mud interlayer while it is contrary when cracks propagate in the salt rock.The energy accumulation,transfer,dissipation and release during the failure process of tunnel with impending failure under disturbance were analyzed theoretically based on the elastoplastic mechanics theory.Furthermore,the spatial distribution of energy dissipation and energy release of fractured rocks under unloading was simulated numerically.It was demonstrated that energy is likely to be released from the weakest surface under compression,which triggers the global failure of rocks.

  7. Catastrophe analysis of the water mist fire suppression process%细水雾灭火的突变分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨立军; 佟明羲; 赵建波


    To understand the water mist fire suppression mechanism and find out the extinguishment boundary, the water mist fire suppression process was analyzed with a non-linear catastrophe theory. The expressions of the flame energy potential function and the flame critical extinguishing temperature were deduced. The extinguishment criterion for the n-heptane pool fire was obtained. The extinguishment boundary is verified by conducting the water mist fire suppression experiments on n-heptane pool fire. The effect of oxygen concentration on the flame extinguishing temperature is quicker than that of heat absorption.%为了认识细水雾灭火机理,寻找细水雾作用下的火焰熄灭边界,采用非线性突变理论分析了细水雾灭火过程,推导出火焰能量势函数及火焰临界熄灭温度的表达式,得到了细水雾扑灭正庚烷油盘火的火焰熄灭边界.进行了细水雾针对正庚烷油盘火的灭火实验,实验结果验证了火焰熄灭边界的正确性.相比吸热过程,火焰熄灭温度受氧浓度的作用更为迅速.

  8. Depressive symptoms and pain evaluations among persons with chronic pain: catastrophizing, but not pain acceptance, shows significant effects. (United States)

    Richardson, Elizabeth J; Ness, Timothy J; Doleys, Daniel M; Baños, James H; Cianfrini, Leanne; Richards, J Scott


    Cognitive factors such as catastrophic thoughts regarding pain, and conversely, one's acceptance of that pain, may affect emotional functioning among persons with chronic pain conditions. The aims of the present study were to examine the effects of both catastrophizing and acceptance on affective ratings of experimentally induced ischemic pain and also self-reports of depressive symptoms. Sixty-seven individuals with chronic back pain completed self-report measures of catastrophizing, acceptance, and depressive symptoms. In addition, participants underwent an ischemic pain induction procedure and were asked to rate the induced pain. Catastrophizing showed significant effects on sensory and intensity but not affective ratings of the induced pain. Acceptance did not show any significant associations, when catastrophizing was also in the model, with any form of ratings of the induced pain. Catastrophizing, but not acceptance, was also significantly associated with self-reported depressive symptoms when these two variables were both included in a regression model. Overall, results indicate negative thought patterns such as catastrophizing appear to be more closely related to outcomes of perceived pain severity and affect in persons with chronic pain exposed to an experimental laboratory pain stimulus than does more positive patterns as reflected in measures of acceptance.

  9. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall. (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M


    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  10. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver


    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  11. Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe (United States)

    Gupta, Vipul; Dixit, Narendra M.


    Increasing the mutation rate, μ , of viruses above a threshold, {μ }c, has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/≤ft(μ -{μ }c\\right). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.

  12. Error catastrophe and phase transition in the empirical fitness landscape of HIV (United States)

    Hart, Gregory R.; Ferguson, Andrew L.


    We have translated clinical sequence databases of the p6 HIV protein into an empirical fitness landscape quantifying viral replicative capacity as a function of the amino acid sequence. We show that the viral population resides close to a phase transition in sequence space corresponding to an "error catastrophe" beyond which there is lethal accumulation of mutations. Our model predicts that the phase transition may be induced by drug therapies that elevate the mutation rate, or by forcing mutations at particular amino acids. Applying immune pressure to any combination of killer T-cell targets cannot induce the transition, providing a rationale for why the viral protein can exist close to the error catastrophe without sustaining fatal fitness penalties due to adaptive immunity.

  13. Evaluating core technology capacity based on an improved catastrophe progression method: the case of automotive industry (United States)

    Zhao, Shijia; Liu, Zongwei; Wang, Yue; Zhao, Fuquan


    Subjectivity usually causes large fluctuations in evaluation results. Many scholars attempt to establish new mathematical methods to make evaluation results consistent with actual objective situations. An improved catastrophe progression method (ICPM) is constructed to overcome the defects of the original method. The improved method combines the merits of the principal component analysis' information coherence and the catastrophe progression method's none index weight and has the advantage of highly objective comprehensive evaluation. Through the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of the automotive industry's core technology capacity, the comprehensive evaluation model is established according to the different roles that different indices play in evaluating the overall goal with a hierarchical structure. Moreover, ICPM is developed for evaluating the automotive industry's core technology capacity for the typical seven countries in the world, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.

  14. Catastrophe Bonds Structures at European Level – A Cluster Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadotti Loris Lino Maria


    Full Text Available The present paper aims at examining several characteristics of the catastrophe bonds (CB market by focusing on emblematic transactions with the objective of stressing the choices of the European-based (reinsurance groups in terms of the CB tranches structure. For the purpose of highlighting the common individualities regarding the configuration of the catastrophe bonds, there are recognized homogenous groups in terms of covered perils and size of the each CB tranche, while emphasizing some stringent aspects linked to their trigger mechanism (like the basis risk, their rating, or tenor. The research identifies several profiles regarding the structural characteristics of the CB during the entire analysed period (1999-2014 and the main periods of development of the market. Accommodating categorical and continuous data, the structural patterns are determined and analysed by applying the two-step cluster methodology.

  15. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;


    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing.

  18. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.


    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  19. Civil Support: Actions Are Needed to Improve DOD’s Planning for a Complex Catastrophe (United States)


    tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption , landslide, mudslide, snowstorm, or drought), or regardless of cause, any fire, flood, or explosion, in any...and emergencies. A major disaster is any natural catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water , wind-driven water , tidal wave...damage under imminently serious conditions in response to a request from civil authorities when time does not permit approval from higher DOD

  20. Subamolide A Induces Mitotic Catastrophe Accompanied by Apoptosis in Human Lung Cancer Cells


    Jen-Yu Hung; Ching-Wen Wen; Ya-Ling Hsu; En-Shyh Lin; Ming-Shyan Huang; Chung-Yi Chen; Po-Lin Kuo


    This study investigated the anticancer effects of subamolide A (Sub-A), isolated from Cinnamomum subavenium, on human nonsmall cell lung cancer cell lines A549 and NCI-H460. Treatment of cancer cells with Sub-A resulted in decreased cell viability of both lung cancer cell lines. Sub-A induced lung cancer cell death by triggering mitotic catastrophe with apoptosis. It triggered oxidant stress, indicated by increased cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and decreased glutathione le...

  1. Factors that determine catastrophic expenditure for tuberculosis care: a patient survey in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chengchao Zhou; Qian Long; Jiaying Chen; Li Xiang; Qiang Li; Shenglan Tang; Fei Huang


    Background:Tuberculosis (TB) often causes catastrophic economic effects on both the individual suffering the disease and their households.A number of studies have analyzed patient and household expenditure on TB care,but there does not appear to be any that have assessed the incidence,intensity and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) relating to TB care in China.That will be the objective of this paper.Methods:The data used for this study were derived from the baseline survey of the China Government-Gates Foundation TB Phase Ⅱ program.Our analysis included 747 TB cases.Catastrophic health expenditure for TB care was estimated using two approaches,with households defined as experiencing CHE if their annual expenditure on TB care:(a) exceeded 10 % of total household income;and (b) exceeded 40 % of their non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).Chi-square tests were used to identify associated factors and logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of CHE.Results:The incidence of CHE was 66.8 % using the household income measure and 54.7 % using non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).An inverse association was observed between CHE rates and household income level.Significant determinants of CHE were:age,household size,employment status,health insurance status,patient income as a percentage of total household income,hospitalization and status as a minimum living security household.Factors including gender,marital status and type of TB case had no significant associations with CHE.Conclusions:Catastrophic health expenditure incidence from TB care is high in China.An integrated policy expanding the free treatment package and ensuring universal coverage,especially the height of UHC for TB patients,is needed.Financial and social protection interventions are essential for identified at-risk groups.

  2. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

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    Lilian R. Reyes Pando


    Full Text Available Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact. Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécheresse et au gel, ayant affectés le Chaco bolivien. Par ailleurs, cet article vise à montrer en quoi une analyse des facteurs de causalité et des impacts post-catastrophe déjà connus est nécessaire. Ces notions sont souvent associées aux aléas à grande échelle pouvant survenir brutalement, mais elles occultent la compréhension des besoins lors de crises qui surviennent à causes d’aléas diffus, extensifs, liés aux styles de vie. Il s’agit également de révéler en quoi les tentatives d’appréhender les catégories successives de risques, apparemment séquencées, en utilisant des mécanismes et des cadres institutionnels indépendants, sont vouées à l’échec. De fait, des relations existent entre risques principaux, risques contingents et risques futurs, et la gestion des risques de catastrophe ainsi que les mécanismes de développement nécessaires pour les réduire.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Hussain, M. Athar, A. Yousaf, G. Muhammad and M. Saqib


    Full Text Available The present report describes a catastrophic penetrating abdominal injury associated with a roadside accident in a draught donkey. Though repair of the eviscerated, damaged portion of the small intestine was accomplished successfully, the animal could not be saved. After postmortem it was concluded that hypovolemia and respiratory distress resulted in the death of the wounded donkey before any resuscitating attempt could be made.

  4. Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous (United States)

    Hsü, Kenneth J.


    Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

  5. Catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes in fully open magnetic field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI; Guoqiang(李国强); HU; Youqiu(胡友秋)


    The catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes is closely related to solar explosive phenomena, such as prominence eruptions, coronal mass ejections, and two-ribbon solar flares. Using a 2-dimensional, 3-component ideal MHD model in Cartesian coordinates, numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the equilibrium property of a coronal magnetic flux rope which is embedded in a fully open background magnetic field. The flux rope emerges from the photosphere and enters the corona with its axial and annular magnetic fluxes controlled by a single "emergence parameter". For a flux rope that has entered the corona, we may change its axial and annular fluxes artificially and let the whole system reach a new equilibrium through numerical simulations. The results obtained show that when the emergence parameter, the axial flux, or the annular flux is smaller than a certain critical value, the flux rope is in equilibrium and adheres to the photosphere. On the other hand, if the critical value is exceeded, the flux rope loses equilibrium and erupts freely upward, namely, a catastrophe takes place. In contrast with the partly-opened background field, the catastrophic amplitude is infinite for the case of fully-opened background field.

  6. Depletion of Paraspeckle Protein 1 Enhances Methyl Methanesulfonate-Induced Apoptosis through Mitotic Catastrophe.

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    Xiangjing Gao

    Full Text Available Previously, we have shown that paraspeckle protein 1 (PSPC1, a protein component of paraspeckles that was involved in cisplatin-induced DNA damage response (DDR, probably functions at the G1/S checkpoint. In the current study, we further examined the role of PSPC1 in another DNA-damaging agent, methyl methanesulfonate (MMS-induced DDR, in particular, focusing on MMS-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. First, it was found that MMS treatment induced the expression of PSPC1. While MMS treatment alone can induce apoptosis, depletion of PSPC1 expression using siRNA significantly increased the level of apoptosis following MMS exposure. In contrast, overexpressing PSPC1 decreased the number of apoptotic cells. Interestingly, morphological observation revealed that many of the MMS-treated PSPC1-knockdown cells contained two or more nuclei, indicating the occurrence of mitotic catastrophe. Cell cycle analysis further showed that depletion of PSPC1 caused more cells entering the G2/M phase, a prerequisite of mitosis catastrophe. On the other hand, over-expressing PSPC1 led to more cells accumulating in the G1/S phase. Taken together, these observations suggest an important role for PSPC1 in MMS-induced DDR, and in particular, depletion of PSPC1 can enhance MMS-induced apoptosis through mitotic catastrophe.

  7. Induction of mitotic catastrophe by PKC inhibition in Nf1-deficient cells. (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaodong; Kim, Sung-Hoon; Shen, Ling; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Chen, Changyan


    Mutations of tumor suppressor Nf1 gene deregulate Ras-mediated signaling, which confers the predisposition for developing benign or malignant tumors. Inhibition of protein kinase C (PKC) was shown to be in synergy with aberrant Ras for the induction of apoptosis in various types of cancer cells. However, it has not been investigated whether loss of PKC is lethal for Nf1-deficient cells. In this study, using HMG (3-hydroxy-3-methylgutaryl, a PKC inhibitor), we demonstrate that the inhibition of PKC by HMG treatment triggered a persistently mitotic arrest, resulting in the occurrence of mitotic catastrophe in Nf1-deficient ST8814 cells. However, the introduction of the Nf1 effective domain gene into ST8814 cells abolished this mitotic crisis. In addition, HMG injection significantly attenuated the growth of the xenografted ST8814 tumors. Moreover, Chk1 was phosphorylated, accompanied with the persistent increase of cyclin B1 expression in HMG-treated ST8814 cells. The knockdown of Chk1 by the siRNA prevented the Nf1-deficient cells from undergoing HMG-mediated mitotic arrest as well as mitotic catastrophe. Thus, our data suggested that the suppression of PKC activates the Chk1-mediated mitotic exit checkpoint in Nf1-deficient cells, leading to the induction of apoptosis via mitotic catastrophe. Collectively, the study indicates that targeting PKC may be a potential option for developing new strategies to treat Nf1-deficiency-related diseases.

  8. Incorporating Family Function into Chronic Pain Disability: The Role of Catastrophizing

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    Fatemeh Akbari


    Full Text Available Background. Observers’ responses to pain are recently investigated to more comprehensively explain chronic pain (CP and disability. However, the role of family context, defined as interference in roles, communication, and problem-solving, and how (i.e., through which mechanisms these variables contribute to CP related disability have yet to be examined. Objectives. The aim of the present study is to examine family context in relationship to pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and depression and its role in understanding CP disability. Three different models were examined. Methods. A total sample of 142 patients with musculoskeletal chronic pain was recruited to examine the role of fear of movement, pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and depression in relationship to family functioning as predictors of disability. Results. Findings indicated that two models showed acceptable fit, but one of them revealed superior fit indices. Results of the model with superior fit indices indicated that family dysfunction may contribute to catastrophic thinking, which, in turn, contributes to patients’ disability through increasing fear of movement and depression. Discussion. The current study provides further support for the notion that the impact of emotional and cognitive variables upon CP-related disability can be better understood when we consider the social context of pain patients and family function in particular.

  9. Pain affects spouses too: personal experience with pain and catastrophizing as correlates of spouse distress. (United States)

    Leonard, Michelle T; Cano, Annmarie


    Chronic pain has adverse effects on individuals with chronic pain (ICPs) as well as their family members. Borrowing from an empathy model described by Goubert et al. (2005), we examined top-down and bottom-up factors that may be related to psychological well-being in the spouses of ICPs. A diverse community sample of 113 middle-aged spouses of individuals with chronic pain (ICPs) completed measures on pain severity and spouse pain catastrophizing (PCS-S; Cano et al., 2005). Results showed that almost half (48.7%) of spouses reported chronic pain themselves and that pain in the spouse accounted for within-couple differences on psychological distress. That is, in couples where only the ICP reported pain, ICP psychological distress was greater than their spouses. However, when both partners reported chronic pain, there was no significant difference in psychological distress between partners. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that spouse magnification catastrophizing was associated with depressive and anxiety symptoms, and that helplessness catastrophizing was associated with depressive symptoms for spouses of ICPs who also reported chronic pain but not for spouses of ICPs without chronic pain. The results are discussed in light of interpersonal processes that may affect spouses' distress.

  10. Dynamics of microtubule asters in microfabricated chambers: The role of catastrophes (United States)

    Faivre-Moskalenko, Cendrine; Dogterom, Marileen


    Recent in vivo as well as in vitro experiments have indicated that microtubule pushing alone is sufficient to position a microtubule-organizing center within a cell. Here, we investigate the effect of catastrophes on the dynamics of microtubule asters within microfabricated chambers that mimic the confining geometry of living cells. The use of a glass bead as the microtubule-organizing center allows us to manipulate the aster by using optical tweezers. In the case in which microtubules preexist, we show that because of microtubule buckling, repositioning almost never occurs after relocation with the optical tweezers, although initial microtubule growth always leads the aster to the geometrical center of the chamber. When a catastrophe promoter is added, we find instead that the aster is able to efficiently explore the chamber geometry even after being relocated with the optical tweezers. As predicted by theoretical calculations, the results of our in vitro experiments clearly demonstrate the need for catastrophes for proper positioning in a confining geometry. These findings correlate with recent observations of nuclear positioning in fission yeast cells. PMID:12486218

  11. Pain catastrophizing predicts pain intensity during a neurodynamic test for the median nerve in healthy participants. (United States)

    Beneciuk, Jason M; Bishop, Mark D; George, Steven Z


    Psychological factors within the Fear-Avoidance Model of Musculoskeletal Pain (FAM) predict clinical and experimental pain in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Clinicians routinely examine individuals with provocative testing procedures that evoke symptoms. The purpose of this study was to investigate which FAM factors were associated with evoked pain intensity, non-painful symptom intensity, and range of motion during an upper-limb neurodynamic test. Healthy participants (n = 62) completed psychological questionnaires for pain catastrophizing, fear of pain, kinesiophobia, and anxiety prior to neurodynamic testing. Pain intensity, non-painful sensation intensity, and elbow range of motion (ROM) were collected during testing and served as dependent variables in separate simultaneous regression models. All the psychological predictors in the model accounted for 18% of the variance in evoked pain intensity (p = .02), with only pain catastrophizing (beta = .442, p neurodynamic testing for healthy subjects. Although these findings cannot be directly translated to clinical practice, the influence of pain catastrophizing on evoked pain responses should be considered during neurodynamic testing.

  12. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift. (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R


    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  13. Termination of Protofilament Elongation by Eribulin Induces Lattice Defects that Promote Microtubule Catastrophes. (United States)

    Doodhi, Harinath; Prota, Andrea E; Rodríguez-García, Ruddi; Xiao, Hui; Custar, Daniel W; Bargsten, Katja; Katrukha, Eugene A; Hilbert, Manuel; Hua, Shasha; Jiang, Kai; Grigoriev, Ilya; Yang, Chia-Ping H; Cox, David; Horwitz, Susan Band; Kapitein, Lukas C; Akhmanova, Anna; Steinmetz, Michel O


    Microtubules are dynamic polymers built of tubulin dimers that attach in a head-to-tail fashion to form protofilaments, which further associate laterally to form a tube. Asynchronous elongation of individual protofilaments can potentially lead to an altered microtubule-end structure that promotes sudden depolymerization, termed catastrophe [1-4]. However, how the dynamics of individual protofilaments relates to overall growth persistence has remained unclear. Here, we used the microtubule targeting anti-cancer drug Eribulin [5-7] to explore the consequences of stalled protofilament elongation on microtubule growth. Using X-ray crystallography, we first revealed that Eribulin binds to a site on β-tubulin that is required for protofilament plus-end elongation. Based on the structural information, we engineered a fluorescent Eribulin molecule. We demonstrate that single Eribulin molecules specifically interact with microtubule plus ends and are sufficient to either trigger a catastrophe or induce slow and erratic microtubule growth in the presence of EB3. Interestingly, we found that Eribulin increases the frequency of EB3 comet "splitting," transient events where a slow and erratically progressing comet is followed by a faster comet. This observation possibly reflects the "healing" of a microtubule lattice. Because EB3 comet splitting was also observed in control microtubules in the absence of any drugs, we propose that Eribulin amplifies a natural pathway toward catastrophe by promoting the arrest of protofilament elongation.

  14. One day at a time: The impact of daily satisfaction with spouse responses on pain, negative affect and catastrophizing among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis. (United States)

    Holtzman, Susan; Delongis, Anita


    The majority of research on pain catastrophizing has focused on its negative consequences for adjustment to chronic pain, with few investigations of factors that influence catastrophizing or its detrimental effects. Using a daily process methodology, the current study examined, first, the extent to which a supportive social environment plays a role in reduced catastrophizing, and second, the extent to which support might protect against the detrimental effects of catastrophizing on well-being. Sixty-nine married individuals with rheumatoid arthritis took part in an initial background interview, followed by twice daily telephone interviews (regarding pain intensity, negative affect, catastrophizing and satisfaction with spouse responses) for 1 week. Multi-level modeling indicated several pathways through which satisfaction with spouse responses disrupts the vicious cycle of pain, negative affect and catastrophizing. Consistent with past research, catastrophizing was associated with increases in pain and negative affect. However, when individuals reported increases in satisfaction with spouse responses they were less likely to experience increases in negative affect due to catastrophizing. Satisfaction with spouse responses also reduced the likelihood of feeling overwhelmed and helpless in dealing with daily pain. The relationship between pain and catastrophizing was attenuated in the context of increases in satisfaction with spouse responses. Negative affect was associated with increases in catastrophizing, but only when individuals reported decreases in satisfaction with spouse responses. Overall, findings were consistent with a model in which satisfaction with spouse responses serves as a coping resource, and suggests the importance of involving close others in treatments to reduce pain and catastrophizing.

  15. Analysis of Environmental Contamination resulting from Catastrophic Incidents: Part two: Building Laboratory Capability by Selecting and Developing Analytical Methodologies (United States)

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples with analytically diverse types including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface resid...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Zolotarev


    Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

  17. Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol

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    Spottiswoode Bruce


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS; the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study is to provide proof-of-concept for the development and testing of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Methods Two interlinked experimental studies will be conducted. Study 1 aims to objectively ascertain if neurophysiological changes occur in the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing, when catastrophizing FMS subjects are exposed to visuals of exercise activities. Study 2 aims to ascertain the preliminary efficacy and feasibility of exposure to visuals of exercise activities as a treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS subjects. Twenty subjects will be selected from a group of FMS patients attending the Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa and randomly allocated to either the VRET (intervention group or waiting list (control group. Baseline neurophysiological activity for subjects will be collected in study 1 using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. In study 2, clinical improvement in pain catastrophizing will be measured using fMRI (objective and the pain catastrophizing scale (subjective. Discussion The premise is if exposing FMS patients to visuals of various exercise activities trigger the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing; then as a treatment, repeated exposure to visuals of the exercise activities using a VRET program could possibly decrease exercise-related pain catastrophizing

  18. Dyson quantum field theory. The worldwide known introduction by one of the fathers of the QED; Dyson Quantenfeldtheorie. Die weltbekannte Einfuehrung von einem der Vaeter der QED

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyson, Freeman [Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ (United States)


    The content: The Dirac equation - scattering problems and the Born approximation - the classical and quantum-mechanical field theory - examples of quantized field theories (Maxwell field, Dirac electrons) - scattering problems of free particles (pair annihilation, Moller scattering, Klein-Nishina formula) - general theory of the scattering (Feynman graphs, infrared catastrophe) - scattering on a static potential and experimental results.

  19. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

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    Esser Norbert


    Full Text Available Abstract Background and Purpose Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR. Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Materials and methods Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2. Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. Results SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Conclusions Our results suggest the importance of delayed

  20. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.


    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  1. Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol)


    Spottiswoode Bruce; Grimmer-Somers Karen A; Morris Linzette D; Louw Quinette A


    Abstract Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS); the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study ...

  2. Role of pain catastrophizing during pain processing in a cohort of patients with chronic and severe arthritic knee pain. (United States)

    Wade, James B; Riddle, Daniel L; Price, Donald D; Dumenci, Levent


    We examined the relationship between catastrophizing and a 3-stage model of pain processing, consisting of pain sensation intensity (stage 1), pain unpleasantness (stage 2), and suffering (stage 3). We studied 310 patients with chronic and severe osteoarthritic knee pain (68.7% female) using 4 competing structural equation models. A strong relationship was found between the suffering construct and its indicators. Of the 4 theoretically plausible models, we found a model with 3 specific pathways of pain sensation leading to the final stage of pain-related suffering. A unique contribution of this study is the integration of catastrophizing into the 3 pain stages. In this model, catastrophizing mediates the relationship between pain-related unpleasantness and suffering, as well as the relationship between sensation and suffering through unpleasantness. Psychological intervention targeting catastrophizing could provide reduction of pain-related suffering that adds to the benefits of therapies directed toward the primary sensory and immediate unpleasant dimensions of pain. These results emphasize the benefit of integrating knowledge of the psychological and neural mechanisms of pain. Catastrophizing makes a unique contribution to suffering apart from the contribution of immediate unpleasantness. The study results emphasize the benefit of integrating knowledge of the psychological and neural mechanisms of pain, and the importance of psychological intervention targeting catastrophizing to reduce pain-related suffering.

  3. A Study on the Mechanism of Agricultural Catastrophe Risk Dispersion Based on the Symbiotic Model and Evolution Mechanism%基于共生模式及演进机理的农业巨灾风险分散机制研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓国取; 孟小雨; 朱选功


    Agricultural catastrophes occur frequently in China and often incur great losses , yet a risk dispersion mecha-nism is still in the exploratory stage in this country .In this paper , with a review of present domestic and foreign research on this issue, and with an overview of the agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion reality in China , the authors follow the symbiosis theory and analyze agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion patterns and their evolution mechanisms in China .With this, they explore a risk dispersion mechanism for agricultural catastrophes , and put forward the path dependence of agricultural catastro-phe risk dispersion in the hope of promoting the management of agricultural catastrophe risks in China .%我国农业巨灾频发且损失巨大,但是我国农业巨灾风险分散机制还处于探索阶段。本文在综述国内外研究现状和农业巨灾风险分散现实的基础上,以共生理论为指导,分析我国农业巨灾风险分散共生模式及其演进机理,探讨我国农业巨灾风险分散机制,探索我国农业巨灾风险分散路径依赖,希望以此推动我国农业巨灾风险管理。

  4. S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

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    Muriel Erent

    Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

  5. Mechanism for the catastrophe-promoting activity of the microtubule destabilizer Op18/stathmin. (United States)

    Gupta, Kamlesh K; Li, Chunlei; Duan, Aranda; Alberico, Emily O; Kim, Oleg V; Alber, Mark S; Goodson, Holly V


    Regulation of microtubule dynamic instability is crucial for cellular processes, ranging from mitosis to membrane transport. Stathmin (also known as oncoprotein 18/Op18) is a prominent microtubule destabilizer that acts preferentially on microtubule minus ends. Stathmin has been studied intensively because of its association with multiple types of cancer, but its mechanism of action remains controversial. Two models have been proposed. One model is that stathmin promotes microtubule catastrophe indirectly, and does so by sequestering tubulin; the other holds that stathmin alters microtubule dynamics by directly destabilizing growing microtubules. Stathmin's sequestration activity is well established, but the mechanism of any direct action is mysterious because stathmin binds to microtubules very weakly. To address these issues, we have studied interactions between stathmin and varied tubulin polymers. We show that stathmin binds tightly to Dolastatin-10 tubulin rings, which mimic curved tubulin protofilaments, and that stathmin depolymerizes stabilized protofilament-rich polymers. These observations lead us to propose that stathmin promotes catastrophe by binding to and acting upon protofilaments exposed at the tips of growing microtubules. Moreover, we suggest that stathmin's minus-end preference results from interactions between stathmin's N terminus and the surface of α-tubulin that is exposed only at the minus end. Using computational modeling of microtubule dynamics, we show that these mechanisms could account for stathmin's observed activities in vitro, but that both the direct and sequestering activities are likely to be relevant in a cellular context. Taken together, our results suggest that stathmin can promote catastrophe by direct action on protofilament structure and interactions.

  6. Overcoming catastrophic interference in connectionist networks using Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipin Srivastava

    Full Text Available Connectionist models of memory storage have been studied for many years, and aim to provide insight into potential mechanisms of memory storage by the brain. A problem faced by these systems is that as the number of items to be stored increases across a finite set of neurons/synapses, the cumulative changes in synaptic weight eventually lead to a sudden and dramatic loss of the stored information (catastrophic interference, CI as the previous changes in synaptic weight are effectively lost. This effect does not occur in the brain, where information loss is gradual. Various attempts have been made to overcome the effects of CI, but these generally use schemes that impose restrictions on the system or its inputs rather than allowing the system to intrinsically cope with increasing storage demands. We show here that catastrophic interference occurs as a result of interference among patterns that lead to catastrophic effects when the number of patterns stored exceeds a critical limit. However, when Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization is combined with the Hebb-Hopfield model, the model attains the ability to eliminate CI. This approach differs from previous orthogonalisation schemes used in connectionist networks which essentially reflect sparse coding of the input. Here CI is avoided in a network of a fixed size without setting limits on the rate or number of patterns encoded, and without separating encoding and retrieval, thus offering the advantage of allowing associations between incoming and stored patterns. PACS Nos.: 87.10.+e, 87.18.Bb, 87.18.Sn, 87.19.La.

  7. Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome and catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in a patient with antidomain I antibodies. (United States)

    Galland, Joris; Mohamed, Shirine; Revuz, Sabine; de Maistre, Emmanuel; de Laat, Bas; Marie, Pierre-Yves; Zuily, Stéphane; Lévy, Bruno; Regnault, Véronique; Wahl, Denis


    Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome is a rare condition characterized by the association of acquired factor II deficiency and lupus anticoagulant. Contrary to classical antiphospholipid syndrome, it may cause severe life-threatening bleeding (89% of published cases). We report a patient, positive for antidomain I antibodies, with initially primary lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome without previous clinical manifestation or underlying systemic disease. Five years later, he experienced the first systemic lupus erythematous flare. Within a few days, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney involvement. The patient recovered under pulse steroids, intravenous heparin and intravenous immunoglobulins.

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Radiology, Rouen (France); Blanc, Thierry [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Neonatal Medicine, Rouen (France); Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne [University Hospital of Rouen, Haematology Laboratory, Rouen (France)


    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  9. Reactive oxygen species regulate a balance between mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. (United States)

    Sorokina, Irina V; Denisenko, Tatiana V; Imreh, Gabriela; Gogvadze, Vladimir; Zhivotovsky, Boris


    Mitotic catastrophe (MC) is a sequence of events resulting from premature or inappropriate entry of cells into mitosis that can be caused by chemical or physical stresses. There are several observations permitting to define MC as an oncosuppressive mechanism. MC can end up in apoptosis, necrosis or senescence. Here we show that the anticancer drug doxorubicin triggers DNA damage and MC independently of ROS production. In contrast, doxorubicin-induced apoptosis was found to be ROS-dependent. Antioxidants NAC or Trolox suppressed apoptosis, but facilitated MC development. Our data demonstrate that evasion of apoptosis and subsequent stimulation of MC can contribute to tumor cell elimination improving anticancer therapy.

  10. A double-ended queue with catastrophes and repairs, and a jump-diffusion approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Di Crescenzo, Antonio; Kumar, Balasubramanian Krishna; Nobile, Amelia G; 10.1007/s11009-011-9214-2


    Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero. We study both the transient and steady-state probability laws of the stochastic process that describes the state of the system. We then derive a heavy-traffic approximation to the model that yields a jump-diffusion process. The latter is equivalent to a Wiener process subject to randomly occurring jumps, whose probability law is obtained. The goodness of the approximation is finally discussed.

  11. Hydrogen Civilization Doctrine: Whether the Humankind Can Prevent Global Ecological Catastrophe?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Hydrogen Civilization (HyCi) doctrine is a novel world outlook,all-embracing vision of the sustainability of the human future:humanity can preclude world climate catastrophe and conserve the biosphere's ability to maintain the life of humanity by the only way,just by the sustainable movement along the vector "Hydrogen Energy → Hydrogen Economy → Hydrogen Civilization".HyCi doctrine is overcoming boundaries between different sciences,between peoples and nations.Hydrogen civilization is a public ideal (‘superattractor’)putting in the forefront Shakespeare's Hamlet question on a global scale:"To be or not to be the humankind:that is the question".

  12. Pain affects spouses too: Personal experience with pain and catastrophizing as correlates of spouse distress ⋆



    Chronic pain has adverse effects on individuals with chronic pain (ICPs) as well as their family members. Borrowing from an empathy model described by Goubert et al. (2005), we examined top-down and bottom-up factors that may be related to psychological well-being in the spouses of ICPs. A diverse community sample of 113 middle-aged spouses of individuals with chronic pain (ICPs) completed measures on pain severity and spouse pain catastrophizing (PCS-S; Cano et al., 2005). Results showed tha...

  13. Successes and failures of compulsory risk mitigation: re-evaluating the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool. (United States)

    Başbuğ-Erkan, B Burcak; Yilmaz, Ozlem


    The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public-private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it.

  14. CHINA HEALTH INSURANCE%Identification of Families at Catastrophic Medical Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Study on methods for the identifi cation of families at catastrophic medical risk is needed to prevent poverty caused by illness and to realize precise poverty alleviation. Catastrophic medical risk families refer to families with catastrophic medical (Health) expenditures, which are families with large amount of medical expenses or poor families caused by illness. From the dimensions of medical expenses, diseases in family members, family income, family property, physical and mental health status of family members and so on, the catastrophic medical risk families are divided into 1-4 level (from low to high). When compensating for medical cost, it should submit to high risk family to prevent poverty caused by illness.%研究灾难性医疗风险家庭的认定办法,是防范因病致贫风险和实现精准扶贫的需要。灾难性医疗风险家庭是指发生了灾难性医疗(卫生)支出的家庭,分为大额医疗费用家庭与因病致贫家庭。从“医疗费用、家庭成员患病情况、家庭收入、家庭财产、家庭成员体能与心智状况”等维度,将灾难性医疗风险家庭分为1-4个级别。1级灾难性医疗风险最低,4级灾难性医疗风险最高。在对医疗费用补偿时,应当向灾难性医疗支出风险大的家庭倾斜,以确保困难家庭及弱势群体的灾难性医疗风险得到化解,防范因病致贫现象发生。

  15. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;


    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend...

  16. 巨灾风险可保性与损失分担机制研究%Catastrophe Risk:Insurability and Costs Sharing Framework

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    Catastrophe risk is not insurable according to the Actuarial Science, but insurable based on the market and social utility theory. The study put forward an integrative costs sharing framework, from the direct insurance, coinsurance, reinsurance, the capital market to the final financial risk protection of government. Individual, insurance market, re-insurance market and capital market undertake catastrophic risk costs primarily and government indemnity plays the last re-insurer role in this framework. This will be helpful for policy maker in the analysis of improving the catastrophe costs sharing framework.%  巨灾风险不符合传统精算理论上的可保风险,然而市场——社会效用意义上的可保风险标准拓展了巨灾风险的可保性。建立在这一理论基础上,本文探讨了如何构建巨灾保险意义上的整体性、多层次的巨灾损失分担机制。从直接保险、共同保险、再保险到资本市场和政府的最终保障,居民、保险市场、再保险市场和资本市场是市场化的巨灾保险损失分担主体,而政府财政救助不应再是“第一保险人”的角色,反之应是承担较高层次的巨灾损失——“最后再保险人”角色,并以此达到有效的将巨灾损失分摊到不同主体和个人,最终实现最大限度的损失补偿。以此为我国的巨灾保险制度的构建与设计提供参考依据。

  17. A Stochastic Catastrophe Model of Knowledge Sharing Within a Team Including Simulations%团队知识共享行为的随机突变模型及仿真

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐岩; 胡斌; 杨永清


    针对团队成员之间的知识共享行为建立一个演化博弈模型,模型中引入监督机制和奖罚机制,并引入白噪声反应博弈过程所受到的随机干扰。借助随机突变理论研究关于团队激励机制、成员自身素质和成员之间交互作用属性参数的连续变化对动力学演化的离散变化的影响即突变性,找到了团队行为发生突变的临界集合。指出演化过程中出现的双模态,反映了团队知识共享行为对外界扰动的敏感性,突跳反映了对参数连续变化的敏感性,而滞后现象反映了管理决策中保持共享行为比治理不共享行为的可靠性。%An evolutionary game model on knowledge sharing within a team is developed , in which oversight mechanism and award mechanism are introduced .The Gaussian White noise is introduced to show the disturb-ance in this game .The catastrophe of sharing behavior , emerging from the continuous changes of the parameters about motivation mechanisms , the natures of members and the interactions between them , is analyzed by means of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT).The catastrophe set of control variables is found to explain and forecast the catastrophe of strategic alliances .In the evolutionary process , there are several catastrophe characteristics:bimodality that implies the sensitivity to external disturbance;sudden jumps that imply the sensitivity to the con-tinuous changes of the parameters; hysterisis that reflects the fact that it is more reliable to maintain sharing knowledge than to administer non-sharing knowledge .

  18. Interactive effects of catastrophizing and suppression on responses to acute pain: a test of an appraisal x emotion regulation model. (United States)

    Gilliam, Wesley; Burns, John W; Quartana, Phillip; Matsuura, Justin; Nappi, Carla; Wolff, Brandy


    We examined whether people who tend to catastrophize about pain and who also attempt to regulate negative thoughts and feelings through suppression may represent a distinct subgroup of individuals highly susceptible to pain and distress. Ninety-seven healthy normal participants underwent a 4-min ischemic pain task followed by a 2-min recovery period. Self-reported pain and distress was recorded during the task and every 20 s during recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the White Bear Suppression Inventory. Repeated measures multiple regression analysis (using General Linear Model procedures) revealed significant 3-way interactions such that participants scoring high on the rumination and/or helplessness subscales of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and who scored high on the predisposition to suppress unwanted thoughts and feelings reported the greatest pain and distress during recovery. Results suggest that pain catastrophizers who attempt to regulate their substantial pain intensity and distress with maladaptive emotion regulation strategies, such as suppression, may be especially prone to experience prolonged recovery from episodes of acute pain. Thus, emotion regulation factors may represent critical variables needed to understand the full impact of catastrophic appraisals on long-term adjustment to pain.

  19. Breakout and Tether-cutting Eruption Models Are Both Catastrophic (Sometimes)

    CERN Document Server

    Longcope, D W


    We present a simplified analytic model of a quadrupolar magnetic field and flux rope to model coronal mass ejections. The model magnetic field is two-dimensional, force-free and has current only on the axis of the flux rope and within two currents sheets. It is a generalization of previous models containing a single current sheet anchored to a bipolar flux distribution. Our new model can undergo quasi-static evolution due either to changes at the boundary or to magnetic reconnection at either current sheet. We find that all three kinds of evolution can lead to a catastrophe known as loss of equilibrium. Some equilibria can be driven to catastrophic instability either through reconnection at the lower current sheet, known as tether cutting, or through reconnection at the upper current sheet, known as breakout. Other equilibria can be destabilized through only one and not the other. Still others undergo no instability, but evolve increasingly rapidly in response to slow steady driving (ideal or reconnective). O...

  20. Catastrophic drought in East Asian monsoon region during Heinrich event 1 (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Sun, Liguang; Chu, Yangxi; Xia, Zehui; Zhou, Xinying; Li, Xiangzhong; Chu, Zhuding; Liu, Xiangjun; Shao, Da; Wang, Yuhong


    Heinrich event 1 (H1) is an important millennial climate event during the last deglaciation. The substantial decreasing of monsoon strength in the East Asian monsoon region during the H1, as shown by stalagmite δ18O records, has been attributed to the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is caused by the slowdown/collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, records from different Asian monsoon regions show various trends in precipitation changes during the H1, and these trends cannot be solely interpreted by the southward shift of the ITCZ. In the present study, we reconstructed time-series of East Asian monsoon precipitation between 25,000 and 10,000 a BP from floodplain sediments in the Huai River Basin. A white sediment layer, distinct from other layers in the profile, contains significantly low TOC, tree pollen and fern spore contents, and more positive δ13Corg, and it is deposited during the H1 event. The determined TOC, pollen and δ13Corg time-series, together with previously reported stalagmite δ18O, indicate a catastrophic (severe) drought in Jianghuai Region, one of the East Asian monsoon regions, during the H1. The La Niña condition in tropical Pacific likely also contributes to the catastrophic drought in Jianghuai Region and the precipitation variations in the Asian monsoon region during the H1.

  1. Exponential Orthogonality Catastrophe in Single-Particle and Many-Body Localized Systems (United States)

    Deng, Dong-Ling; Pixley, J. H.; Li, Xiaopeng

    We investigate the statistical orthogonality catastrophe (StOC) in single-particle and many-body localized systems by studying the response of the many-body ground state to a local quench. Using scaling arguments and exact numerical calculations, we establish that the StOC gives rise to a wave function overlap between the pre- and post-quench ground states that has an exponential decay with the system size, in sharp contrast to the well-known power law Anderson orthogonality catastrophe in metallic systems. This exponential decay arises from a statistical charge transfer process where a particle can be effectively ``transported'' to an arbitrary lattice site. We show that in a many-body localized phase, this non-local transport and the associated exponential StOC phenomenon persist in the presence of interactions. We study the possible experimental consequences of the exponential StOC on the Loschmidt echo and spectral function, establishing that this phenomenon might be observable in cold atomic experiments through Ramsey interference and radio-frequency spectroscopy. We thank S.-T. Wang, Z.-X. Gong, Y.-L. Wu, J. D. Sau, and Z. Ovadyahu for discussions. This work is supported by LPS-MPO-CMTC, JQI-NSF-PFC, and ARO-Atomtronics-MURI. The authors acknowledge the University of Maryland supercomputing resources.

  2. Conditions of Agricultural Catastrophe Risks in China and Establishment of Agricultural Risks Protection Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    Agricultural risks in our country have been introduced:firstly,disasters are multiple and frequently happened;secondly,widely affected and seriously suffered.Features of risks also are introduced:the first is the agricultural risk unit is large;the second is the agricultural risk is strongly regional;the third is the agricultural risk is universally half revival.The paper discusses the limits of the agricultural risks management,pointing out that in the management systems of agricultural risks,government finance is strongly burdened,compensations on the catastrophe is small in region,low in level.Based on the above analysis,the protection systems of agricultural risks have been constructed:the first is to establish the reassurance systems of agricultural risks;the second is to establish the risk funds of single agricultural item;the third is to transfer the catastrophe risks through stocks;the fourth is to construct multi leveled countermeasures of agricultural risks.

  3. On the obstacles and way to assess the seismic catastrophe for high arch dams

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)


    To prevent possible seismic catastrophe,naturally,its assessment is deeply concerned over in China as a series of arch dams of about 300 m high will be constructed in the severe seismic regions.In this paper the major obstacles to the seismic catastrophe assessment of high arch dams which focused on clearly defining the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) and reasonably selecting its site-specific seismic input parameters as well as quantitatively evaluating the limit state of dam-breach for designers are emphasized.Some breakthrough progress with pending problems is presented,such as to adopt more reasonable seismic input parameters based on seismic hazard evaluation of dam site; to develop model and method more fit in with the reality for non-linear seismic analysis of dam-foundation-reservoir system.The ideals of further improvement both in evaluating the MCE and defining the quantitative index of its performance objective are discussed,including how to use semi-empirical method of simulating strong ground motion near fault,how to solve the long-standing problem of stress singularity at dam heel,and how to investigate dynamic behaviors of fully-graded damconcrete through dynamic tests and 3-dimensional meso-mechanics analysis checked by CT technique.

  4. CSL protein regulates transcription of genes required to prevent catastrophic mitosis in fission yeast. (United States)

    Převorovský, Martin; Oravcová, Martina; Zach, Róbert; Jordáková, Anna; Bähler, Jürg; Půta, František; Folk, Petr


    For every eukaryotic cell to grow and divide, intricately coordinated action of numerous proteins is required to ensure proper cell-cycle progression. The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been instrumental in elucidating the fundamental principles of cell-cycle control. Mutations in S. pombe 'cut' (cell untimely torn) genes cause failed coordination between cell and nuclear division, resulting in catastrophic mitosis. Deletion of cbf11, a fission yeast CSL transcription factor gene, triggers a 'cut' phenotype, but the precise role of Cbf11 in promoting mitotic fidelity is not known. We report that Cbf11 directly activates the transcription of the acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase gene cut6, and the biotin uptake/biosynthesis genes vht1 and bio2, with the former 2 implicated in mitotic fidelity. Cbf11 binds to a canonical, metazoan-like CSL response element (GTGGGAA) in the cut6 promoter. Expression of Cbf11 target genes shows apparent oscillations during the cell cycle using temperature-sensitive cdc25-22 and cdc10-M17 block-release experiments, but not with other synchronization methods. The penetrance of catastrophic mitosis in cbf11 and cut6 mutants is nutrient-dependent. We also show that drastic decrease in biotin availability arrests cell proliferation but does not cause mitotic defects. Taken together, our results raise the possibility that CSL proteins play conserved roles in regulating cell-cycle progression, and they could guide experiments into mitotic CSL functions in mammals.

  5. Sri Lanka : de la lutte contre le terrorisme à la catastrophe humanitaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delon Madavan


    Full Text Available La volonté du gouvernement sri lankais d’en finir militairement avec le LTTE a abouti à une catastrophe humanitaire. L’armée et les Tigres se rendent coupables de crime de guerre et de crime contre l’humanité à l’encontre des civils tamouls, qui sont piégés dans la zone de combat ou enfermés dans des camps de détention. La perception différenciée de l’opération militaire selon les communautés nécessiterait la création d’un Tribunal Pénal International pour Sri Lanka.The will of Sri Lankan government to finish militarily with LTTE has ended with an humanitarian catastrophe. Both the Sri Lankan Army and the Tigers are guilty of international war and humanitarian crimes against Tamil civilians, who are trapped in the war zone or locked in detention camps. The different perceptions of the military operation according to the communities should need the creation of an International Penal Court for Sri Lanka

  6. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Ischemic Pancreatitis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Vyas


    Full Text Available Context Antiphospholipid syndrome is often associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. Both syndromes have different clinical manifestations based on organ involvement. Antiphospholipid syndrome commonly causes spontaneous abortions, cerebral vascular occlusion, and deep venous thrombosis. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thromboses in less than a week. Case report We report a unique case of a young woman with a history of systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome who presented with recurrent ischemic pancreatitis. Pancreatitis was refractory to anticoagulation and low dose steroids. Secondary to recurrence of pancreatitis and other organ involvement, she was treated as a presumed case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Aggressive treatment with plasmapheresis, corticosteroids, cyclophosphamide, and anticoagulation eventually led to her recovery. Conclusion Awareness of this rare, rapidly fatal medical condition prompts vital, early intervention to improve patients’ survival. This case report aims to add to the limited therapeutic data available as well as suggest a possible approach to treating this rare syndrome with very high morbidity and mortality.

  7. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov


    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  8. Waltz's Theory of Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole


    Kenneth N. Waltz's 1979 book, Theory of International Politics, is the most influential in the history of the discipline. It worked its effects to a large extent through raising the bar for what counted as theoretical work, in effect reshaping not only realism but rivals like liberalism and refle......Kenneth N. Waltz's 1979 book, Theory of International Politics, is the most influential in the history of the discipline. It worked its effects to a large extent through raising the bar for what counted as theoretical work, in effect reshaping not only realism but rivals like liberalism...... and reflectivism. Yet, ironically, there has been little attention to Waltz's very explicit and original arguments about the nature of theory. This article explores and explicates Waltz's theory of theory. Central attention is paid to his definition of theory as ‘a picture, mentally formed' and to the radical anti......-empiricism and anti-positivism of his position. Followers and critics alike have treated Waltzian neorealism as if it was at bottom a formal proposition about cause-effect relations. The extreme case of Waltz being so victorious in the discipline, and yet being consistently mis-interpreted on the question of theory...

  9. Health service use, out-of-pocket payments and catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Kowal, Paul; Attermann, Jørn;


    BACKGROUND: Healthcare financing through out-of-pocket payments and inequities in healthcare utilisation are common in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Given the dearth of pertinent studies on these issues among older people in LMICs, we investigated the determinants of health service use......, out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures among older people in one LMIC, India. METHODS: We accessed data from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 2414 people aged 65 years and older from the WHO's Study on global Ageing and adult health in India. Sociodemographic...... the number of health visits and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure among older people in India was 7% (95% CI 6% to 8%). Older men and individuals with chronic diseases were at higher risk of catastrophic health expenditure, while access to health insurance...

  10. La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Perrineau, Aude


    Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

  11. Associations between Neuroticism and Depression in Relation to Catastrophizing and Pain-Related Anxiety in Chronic Pain Patients. (United States)

    Kadimpati, Sandeep; Zale, Emily L; Hooten, Michael W; Ditre, Joseph W; Warner, David O


    Several cognitive-affective constructs, including pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, have been implicated in the onset and progression of chronic pain, and both constructs have been identified as key targets for multidisciplinary pain treatment. Both neuroticism and depression have been linked to these constructs (and to each other), but how each may contribute to the pain experience is unknown. This study tested associations between neuroticism, depression, and indices of catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety among persons seeking treatment for chronic non-malignant pain. We hypothesized, as a higher-order personality trait, neuroticism would remain uniquely associated with both pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, even after accounting for current symptoms of depression. A retrospective study design assessed depression (as measured by the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale), neuroticism (measured with the Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory), the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and the Pain Anxiety Symptom Score in a consecutive series of patients (n=595) admitted to a 3-week outpatient pain treatment program from March 2009 through January 2011. Hierarchical regression indicated that neuroticism was independently associated with greater pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, above-and-beyond the contributions of sociodemographic characteristics, pain severity, and depression. A depression by neuroticism interaction was not observed, suggesting that associations between neuroticism and cognitive-affective pain constructs remained stable across varying levels of current depression. These findings represent an early but important step towards the clarification of complex associations between trait neuroticism, current depression, and tendencies toward catastrophic and anxiety-provoking appraisals of pain among persons seeking treatment for chronic pain.

  12. Associations between Neuroticism and Depression in Relation to Catastrophizing and Pain-Related Anxiety in Chronic Pain Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kadimpati

    Full Text Available Several cognitive-affective constructs, including pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, have been implicated in the onset and progression of chronic pain, and both constructs have been identified as key targets for multidisciplinary pain treatment. Both neuroticism and depression have been linked to these constructs (and to each other, but how each may contribute to the pain experience is unknown. This study tested associations between neuroticism, depression, and indices of catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety among persons seeking treatment for chronic non-malignant pain. We hypothesized, as a higher-order personality trait, neuroticism would remain uniquely associated with both pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, even after accounting for current symptoms of depression. A retrospective study design assessed depression (as measured by the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale, neuroticism (measured with the Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and the Pain Anxiety Symptom Score in a consecutive series of patients (n=595 admitted to a 3-week outpatient pain treatment program from March 2009 through January 2011. Hierarchical regression indicated that neuroticism was independently associated with greater pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, above-and-beyond the contributions of sociodemographic characteristics, pain severity, and depression. A depression by neuroticism interaction was not observed, suggesting that associations between neuroticism and cognitive-affective pain constructs remained stable across varying levels of current depression. These findings represent an early but important step towards the clarification of complex associations between trait neuroticism, current depression, and tendencies toward catastrophic and anxiety-provoking appraisals of pain among persons seeking treatment for chronic pain.

  13. Payments for health care and its effect on catastrophe and impoverishment: experience from the transition to Universal Coverage in Thailand. (United States)

    Somkotra, Tewarit; Lagrada, Leizel P


    Equitable health financing was embodied in the reform strategies of Thailand's health care system when the country moved towards implementing the Universal Coverage (UC) policy in 2001. This study aimed to measure the pattern of household out-of-pocket payments for health care and to examine the financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to such payments during the transitional period (pre- and post-Universal Coverage policy implementation) in Thailand. This study used the nationally representative Socioeconomic Surveys in 2000 (pre-UC), 2002, and 2004 (post-UC), which contained data from 24747, 34758 and 34843 individual households, respectively. The proportion of out-of-pocket payments for health care as a share of household living standards among Thai households shows a decreasing pattern during the observed period. Moreover, the incidence and intensity of catastrophic payments for health care decline from the pre-UC to post-UC period. The distribution of incidence and the intensity of catastrophic payments for health care across quintiles also indicate that the lower quintile group (1st and 2nd quintiles) incurs lower catastrophic health care payments compared to the higher quintile group. The UC policy is also effective in preventing impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments for health care since both the poverty headcount and poverty gap decline from the pre-UC to post-UC period. This study provides important evidence that the UC policy implementation is a valuable social protection and safety net strategy that contributes to the prevention of financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments for health care. In conclusion, the UC policy in Thailand achieves one of the goals of improving the health system through equitable health care financing by reducing financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments for health care.

  14. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (II): thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations. (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y


    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyze the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations, and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analyzed on thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  15. Polar catastrophe, electron leakage, and magnetic ordering at the LaMnO$_3$/SrMnO$_3$ interface


    Nanda, B. R. K.; Satpathy, S.


    Electronic reconstruction at the polar interface LaMnO$_3$/SrMnO$_3$ (LMO/SMO) (100) resulting from the polar catastrophe is studied from a model Hamiltonian that includes the double and super exchange interactions, the Madelung potential, and the Jahn-Teller coupling terms relevant for the manganites. We show that the polar catastrophe, originating from the alternately charged LMO layers and neutral SMO layers, is quenched by the accumulation of an extra half electron per cell in the interfa...

  16. The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions (United States)

    Evans, S. G.


    Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of

  17. Earthquake and the Catastrophic End of the Late Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean (United States)

    Nur, A.


    The reasons for the catastrophic and wide spread political as well as physical collapse in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean areas that define the end of the Bronze age ca. 1225 BC to 1175 BC remain a major enigma. It has been attributed by historian to attacks by outsiders with the most favored group being the (enigmatic) so-called sea people. Unfortunately there is no real evidence for this. However combined geological, geophysical and archaeological evidence suggests that earthquakes may have played a key role in this extraordinary collapse during the late 13th and early 12th centuries . Based on the instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region during the 20th century, several events that have clear historical information, and the geography of seismically active faults it is obvious that numerous earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 or greater (enough to destroy modern buildings, let alone those of antiquity) occurred here frequently in the past. Furthermore major earthquakes often occur in this region in groups, known as ‘‘sequences'' or ‘‘storms'', in which one large quake is followed days, months, or a few years later by others elsewhere on the plate boundary fault lines. When a map of the areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region shaken by 20th century  earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 and greater and with an intensity of VII or greater is overlaid on Robert Drews' map of sites destroyed in these same regions during the so-called ‘‘Catastrophe'' near the end of the Late Bronze Age, it is readily apparent that virtually all of these LBA sites lie within the affected (‘‘high-shaking'') areas. This would suggest that a major ‘‘earthquake storm'' may have occurred in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean during the years 1225-1175 . This ‘‘storm'' may have interacted with societal, political and economic forces at work in these areas c. 1200  and

  18. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.


    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  19. Usages des TIC et rapports a l’incertitude en situation de catastrophes naturelles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Brossaud


    Full Text Available Cet article montre comment des professionnels et des sinistrés qui ont été confrontés à des catastrophes naturelles sur trois territoires distincts - la tempête à Limoges en 1999, les inondations à Abbeville (2001 et à Bourg-en-Bresse (2005 - ont construit une histoire commune du risque au moyen des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC : Internet, téléphone portable, bases de données, outils de travail partagés, etc. Les usages des TIC sont d’abord resitués concrètement avant, pendant et après les événements dans un contexte historique où les sciences et techniques sont de plus en plus sollicitées pour réduire les incertitudes liées aux menaces sanitaires et écologiques. On voit ensuite s’élaborer une culture du risque sur la base de compétences socio-cognitives et relationnelles particulières face aux événements et à leur prise en charge technologique. Nous examinons en dernier ressort le rôle des TIC dans l’apprentissage d’une argumentation et d’une délibération collective sur les catastrophes, notamment grâce à la mise en place d’outils dédiés à l’étude sur le site article shows how professionnals and disaster victims involved in natural catastrophes in three different areas - Limoges storm in 1999, Abbeville and Bourg-en-Bresse floods in 2001 and 2005 – built a commun risk story with Information and communication technologies (ICT : Internet, mobiles, data bases, groupware, etc. At first, ICT uses are concretely approached before, during and after the events in a historic context where sciences and technology are growing up to reduce uncertainties of medical and ecological threats. Then, in the second part of this article, a risk culture is supported by socio-cognitive and relationnal competences towards events and their technological holding. At last, we examine ICT place in a collective argumentation and deliberation about the

  20. A Cusp Catastrophe Model for Team Learning, Team Potency and Team Culture. (United States)

    Rebelo, Teresa; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Lourenco, Paulo Renato; Dimas, Isabel; Pinheiro, Margarida


    This paper examines team learning behaviors within a nonlinear dynamical system (NDS) perspective. The present research is based on a sample of 36 project workgroups, where data were collected at two moments of their life cycle, with visual analogue scales. Using both the least squares method and maximum likelihood, it proposes a cusp catastrophe model for explaining team learning. The cusp model is superior to its linear alternatives and implements team culture as the asymmetry variable and team potency as bifurcation. The findings of cusp structure in the data support the existence of discontinuous shifts in learning behavior and furthermore a proposition that the punctuated equilibrium model (PEM) might be a reasonable model for describing group functioning, since it encompasses such sudden changes between distinct stages (attractors). A discussion on small group research is also provided by highlighting the nonlinear dynamics of team processes, along with further implications for research and practice.

  1. The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger


    Full Text Available Around 8200 calBP, large parts of the now submerged North Sea continental shelf (‘Doggerland’ were catastrophically flooded by the Storegga Slide tsunami, one of the largest tsunamis known for the Holocene, which was generated on the Norwegian coastal margin by a submarine landslide. In the present paper, we derive a precise calendric date for the Storegga Slide tsunami, use this date for reconstruction of contemporary coastlines in the North Sea in relation to rapidly rising sea-levels, and discuss the potential effects of the tsunami on the contemporaneous Mesolithic population. One main result of this study is an unexpectedly high tsunami impact assigned to the western regions of Jutland.

  2. Behavioral and catastrophic drift of invertebrates in two streams in northeastern Wyoming (United States)

    Wangsness, David J.; Peterson, David A.


    Invertebrate drift samples were collected in August 1977 from two streams in the Powder River structural basin in northeastern Wyoming. The streams are Clear Creek, a mountain stream, and the Little Powder River, a plains stream. Two major patterns of drift were recognized. Clear Creek was sampled during a period of normal seasonal conditions. High drift rates occurred during the night indicating a behavioral drift pattern that is related to the benthic invertebrate density and carrying capacity of the stream substrates. The mayfly genes Baetis, a common drift organism, dominated the peak periods of drift in Clear Creek. The Little Powder River has a high discharge during the study period. Midge larvae of the families Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae, ususally not common in drift, dominated the drift community. The dominance of midge larvae, the presence of several other organisms not common in drift, and the high discharge during the study period caused a catastrophic drift pattern. (USGS)

  3. Progression of antiphospholipid antibody syndrome to catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome acutely with cessation of antithrombotic therapy. (United States)

    Katikireddi, V S; Kandiah, D A


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (CAPS) is a serious condition that is often unrecognised with a high mortality. Cessation of anticoagulation in antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) can have devastating consequences with progression to CAPS. Making a diagnosis of APS can however be challenging because of the evolving diagnostic criteria and difficulty in confirming thromboses. Management of these patients can also be complex, especially in those with coexistent thrombocytopenia. New potential treatments are emerging targeted on the immunomodulation of APS rather than just prevention of thrombosis. This article aims to highlight these diagnostic and management difficulties by reporting and discussing three cases of APS with progression to CAPS following cessation of anticoagulation, one with fatal consequences, with confirmation of CAPS on autopsy, and two with successful treatment and outcomes.

  4. Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome in a young woman in the postpartum period. (United States)

    Jacobson, Tatiana B; Kolade, Victor O; Kapadia, Avni S


    A 27-year-old Hispanic female was admitted to hospital with fever, a sudden marked decrease in vision, and multi-organ failure shortly after preterm delivery by cesarean section for eclampsia. Her past history was significant for a spontaneous first trimester abortion and one live birth complicated by intrauterine growth retardation. She was found to have several focal brain infarcts, exudative retinal detachment, bilateral adrenal hemorrhage, renal insufficiency, hypertension and subsequently hypotension. Positive anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, and anti-B2 glycoprotein-I, as well as deranged coagulation profile and PTT mixing studies aided in the diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Anticoagulation and high-dose intravenous steroids led to significant improvement in the patient's condition, including her vision.

  5. Cosmology or Catastrophe? A non-minimally coupled scalar in an inhomogeneous universe

    CERN Document Server

    Caputa, Pawel; Olson, Joseph; Underwood, Bret


    A non-minimally coupled scalar field can have, in principle, a negative effective Planck mass squared which depends on the scalar field. Surprisingly, an isotropic and homogeneous cosmological universe with a non-minimally coupled scalar field is perfectly smooth as the rolling scalar field causes the effective Planck mass to change sign and pass through zero. However, we show that any small deviations from homogeneity diverge as the effective Planck mass vanishes, with catastrophic consequences for the cosmology. The physical origin of the divergence is due to the presence of non-zero scalar anisotropic stress from the non-minimally coupled scalar field. Thus, while the homogeneous and isotropic cosmology appears surprisingly sensible when the effective Planck mass vanishes, inhomogeneities tell a different story.

  6. Primer retention owing to the absence of RNase H1 is catastrophic for mitochondrial DNA replication. (United States)

    Holmes, J Bradley; Akman, Gokhan; Wood, Stuart R; Sakhuja, Kiran; Cerritelli, Susana M; Moss, Chloe; Bowmaker, Mark R; Jacobs, Howard T; Crouch, Robert J; Holt, Ian J


    Encoding ribonuclease H1 (RNase H1) degrades RNA hybridized to DNA, and its function is essential for mitochondrial DNA maintenance in the developing mouse. Here we define the role of RNase H1 in mitochondrial DNA replication. Analysis of replicating mitochondrial DNA in embryonic fibroblasts lacking RNase H1 reveals retention of three primers in the major noncoding region (NCR) and one at the prominent lagging-strand initiation site termed Ori-L. Primer retention does not lead immediately to depletion, as the persistent RNA is fully incorporated in mitochondrial DNA. However, the retained primers present an obstacle to the mitochondrial DNA polymerase γ in subsequent rounds of replication and lead to the catastrophic generation of a double-strand break at the origin when the resulting gapped molecules are copied. Hence, the essential role of RNase H1 in mitochondrial DNA replication is the removal of primers at the origin of replication.

  7. Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities. (United States)

    Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei


    For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail.

  8. Substantial contribution of anthropogenic air pollution to catastrophic floods in Southwest China (United States)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Yang, Yan; Zhao, Chun; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Zhanqing


    Extreme weather events have become more frequent and are likely linked to increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols, which alter the Earth's radiative balance and cloud processes. On 8-9 July 2013, a catastrophic flood devastated the mountainous area to the northwest of the Sichuan Basin. Atmospheric simulations at a convection-permitting scale with aerosols and chemistry included show that heavy air pollution trapped in the basin significantly enhances the rainfall intensity over the mountainous areas through "aerosol-enhanced conditional instability." That is, aerosols suppress convection by absorbing solar radiation and increasing atmospheric stability in the basin during daytime. This allows excess moist air to be transported to the mountainous areas and orographically lifted, generating strong convection and extremely heavy precipitation at night. We show that reducing pollution in the Sichuan Basin can effectively mitigate floods. It is suggested that coupling aerosol with meteorology can be crucial to improve weather forecast in polluted regions.

  9. Eculizumab Induces Sustained Remission in a Patient With Refractory Primary Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome. (United States)

    Zikos, Thomas A; Sokolove, Jeremy; Ahuja, Neera; Berube, Caroline


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is fatal in approximately 44% of patients in whom the diagnosis is made, thus demonstrating the inadequacy of current medical therapy. In this report, we discuss a 47-year-old man with a known history of primary antiphospholipid syndrome, who presented with CAPS after undergoing cholecystectomy and a treatment-refractory early relapse after development of colitis. Given the potential therapeutic efficacy of complement inhibition in antiphospholipid syndrome, the patient was administered eculizumab, a terminal complement inhibitor. Progressive clinical improvement and laboratory improvement were observed upon initiation of eculizumab. He has remained in remission for over 16 months of follow-up while on eculizumab. In conclusion, this case represents successful use of eculizumab for the treatment of primary CAPS.

  10. Vascular Endothelial Cell Function in Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Routy


    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare autoimmune condition, which has been associated with a high mortality rate. However, with current management that includes a combination of anticoagulation, glucocorticoid administration, and plasma exchange, mortality rate has declined. Despite survival improvement with new generation immunosuppressive agents, their mechanisms of action are poorly defined, and CAPS is still considered a high-risk complication in patients known with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Herein, we present a case of a 79-year-old male who presented with a myocardial infarct and renal failure secondary to CAPS following a splenectomy for immune thrombocytopenia. Regardless of rapid combination of first-line treatment and rituximab therapy, the patient developed lethal cardiogenic shock secondary to mitral valve papillary muscle necrosis. Discussion of the pathophysiology and avenues of future therapies in CAPS are reported.

  11. Preventing catastrophes in spatially extended systems through dynamic switching of random interactions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anshul Choudhary; Vivek Kohar; Sudeshna Sinha


    In this paper, we review and extend the results from our recently published work [Scientific Reports (Nature) 4, 4308] on taming explosive growth in spatially extended systems. Specifically, we consider collections of relaxation oscillators, which are relevant to modelling phenomena ranging from engineering to biology, under varying coupling topologies. We find that the system witnesses unbounded growth under regular connections on a ring, for sufficiently strong coupling strengths. However, when a fraction of the regular connections are dynamically rewired to random links, this blow-up is suppressed. We present the critical value of random links necessary for successful prevention of explosive growth in the oscillators for varying network rewiring time-scales. Further, we outline our analysis on the possible mechanisms behind the occurrence of catastrophes and how the switching of links helps to suppress them.

  12. Columnar order in jammed LiFePO4 cathodes: ion transport catastrophe and its mitigation. (United States)

    Smith, Kyle C; Mukherjee, Partha P; Fisher, Timothy S


    The high-rate, high-capacity potential of LiFePO4-based lithium-ion battery cathodes has motivated numerous experimental and theoretical studies aiming to realize such performance through nano-sizing, tailoring of particle shape through synthesis conditions, and doping. Here, a granular mechanics study of microstructures formed by dense jammed packings of experimentally and theoretically inspired LiFePO4 particle shapes is presented. A strong dependence of the resultant packing structures on particle shapes is observed, in which columnar structures aligned with the [010] direction inhibit diffusion along [010] in anisotropic LiFePO4. Transport limitations are induced by [010] columnar order and lead to catastrophic performance degradation in anisotropic LiFePO4 electrodes. Further, judicious mixing of nanoplatelets with additive nanoparticles can frustrate columnar ordering and thereby enhance the rate capability of LiFePO4 electrodes by nearly an order of magnitude.

  13. Surviving catastrophic disintegration of a large left atrial myxoma: the importance of multi-disciplinary team. (United States)

    Habbab, Louay; Alfaraidi, Haifa; Lamy, Andre


    Atrial myxomas are the most common primary cardiac tumors, representing ∼50% of all benign cardiac tumors. Patients with a left atrial myxoma (LAM) generally present with symptoms of mechanical obstruction of blood flow, systemic emboli or constitutional symptoms. Embolic complications may occur any time with progression of the tumor; therefore, myxoma is usually considered an indication for urgent surgery. This report describes a patient with mobile large LAM who survived multiple emboli to the brain, spleen, kidneys, abdominal aorta and lower limbs during hospitalization for surgery, illustrating the critical nature of this finding and its possible catastrophic complications and demonstrating the importance of multi-disciplinary team in the decision-making process and the management of such complications and supporting the hypothesis that intravenous thrombolysis may be safely used in the treatment of embolic stroke due to cardiac myxoma.

  14. Super Persistent Chaotic Transients And Catastrophic Bifurcation From Riddled To Fractal Basins

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, V A


    This dissertation treats two related problems in chaotic dynamics: (1) super persistent chaotic transients in physical systems, and (2) catastrophic bifurcation from riddled to fractal basins. For the first problem, we investigate super persistent chaotic transient by studying the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. A super persistent chaotic transient is typically induced by an unstable-unstable pair bifurcation in which two unstable periodic orbits of the same period coalesce and disappear as a system parameter is changed through a critical value. So far examples illustrating this type of transient chaos utilize discrete-time maps. We present a class of continuous-time dynamical systems that exhibit super persistent chaotic transients in parameter regimes of positive measure. In particular, we examine the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. It is found that additive white noise can induce phase slips in integer multi...

  15. Acknowledging Fascination with Catastrophe and Terrorism: September 11 and the Nuclear Destruction of Hiroshima/Nagasaki

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanouil Aretoulakis


    Full Text Available At the end of the twentieth century there was a critical shift from prioritizing the anti-aesthetic and the “sublime” towards favoring beauty in aesthetic as well as political matters. In this context, the present article discusses the role of beauty and aesthetics in such major disasters as the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Hiroshima/Nagasaki nuclear bombings. More specifically, it posits that there is a morally unacceptable feeling of fascination when witnessing destructive events of such magnitude. On the other hand, aesthetic appreciation is paradoxically indispensable for an ethical assessment of man-made catastrophes. Keywords: Beauty, Hiroshima, 9/11, Terrorism, Aesthetic Judgment, Imagination, Ethics.

  16. Predicting the timescales of catastrophic stratovolcano collapse - A model based on Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. (United States)

    Zernack, A. V.; Procter, J. N.; Cronin, S. J.; Bebbington, M. S.; Price, R. C.; Smith, I. E. M.


    Andesitic stratovolcanoes or composite volcanoes are constructed in short, but rapid growth-rate eruption episodes to form steep, unstable edifices made of alternating layers of lavas, pyroclastic and epiclastic breccias. Stratovolcanoes regularly collapse catastrophically, producing highly destructive volcanic debris avalanches that present the extreme hazard scenario at all major continental volcanic arcs on Earth. However, models to forecast their likelihood and size are rare, typically because of poor age and volume constraints on their deposits in the geological record at any one volcano. Here we use one of the best-exposed long-term records of both volcanic sedimentation and geochemical evolution from a typical calc-alkaline andesitic volcano to develop a steady-state growth and volume-controlled model for the probability of catastrophic volcanic edifice collapse. The >130 kyrs history of Mt. Taranaki (2518 m) in New Zealand's North Island is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic edifice failures. These involved all sectors of the volcano and produced debris avalanche deposits of >1 to >7.5 km3 with recurrence intervals of 2.5-15 kyrs. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one third of the upper present-day equivalent cone. Individual debris avalanche units show similar sedimentary and geomorphic characteristics, suggesting that the nature of proto-edifices, failure trigger mechanisms and runout path conditions were similar for each event. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted. Instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed, producing similar eruption styles and frequency throughout the volcanic history. The strong climate variations and extreme conditions during the Last Glacial are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. These similar internal and external conditions resulted

  17. Transient Loschmidt Echo and Orthogonality Catastrophe in highly excited Quantum Ising Spin Chains (United States)

    Schiro, Marco; Lupo, Carla

    We study the response to sudden local perturbations of highly excited Quantum Ising Spin Chains. The key quantity encoding this response is the overlap between time-dependent wave functions, which we write as a transient Loschmidt echo. We compute the Echo perturbatively in the case of a weak local quench and study its asymptotics at long times, which contains crucial information about the structure of the highly excited non-equilibrium environment induced by the quench. Our results reveal that the Echo decays exponentially, rather than power law as in the low-energy Orthogonality Catastrophe, a further example of quench-induced decoherence. The emerging decoherence scale is set by the strenght of the local potential and the bulk excitation energy. In addition, the transient evolution features aging behavior at the Ising quantum critical point.

  18. Catastrophe mechanism and disaster countermeasure for soft rock roadway surrounding rock in Meihe mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Yang⇑; Zhu Caikun; Chong Deyu; Liu Yang; Li Sichao


    The soft rock’s heterogeneity and nonlinear mechanical behavior cause extremely difficult maintenance on the soft rock roadway. Aiming at the asymmetric deformation and destruction phenomenon appearing after excavating and supporting the 7101 air return way in Meihe mine, this paper comprehensively adopted a variety of methods to analyze the roadway surrounding rock deformation rule, obtaining the roadway surrounding rock stress and plastic zone distribution rule under no supporting condition and the roadway surrounding rock deformation features under original symmetric supporting condition. Furthermore, this paper revealed the catastrophe mechanism, and proposed the concept of‘weak struc-ture’ and the disaster countermeasure of‘overall stabilizing the roadway and strengthening the support of weak structure’ . The industrial test shows that the disaster control technology can realize the coordination deformation of the supporting structure and roadway surrounding rock, thus significantly controlling the deformation of roadway surrounding rock.

  19. On the possible physical mechanism of Chernobyl catastrophe and the unsoundness of official conclusion

    CERN Document Server

    Rukhadze, A A; Filippov, D V


    The official conclusion about the origin and mechanism of the Chernobyl catastrophe is shown to essentially contradict experimental facts available from the accident. In the frame of existing physical models of nuclear fission reactor, it is shown analytically that under conditions of the accident the period of runaway of reactor at the fourth power generating unit of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) should be either 10 times slower or 100 times faster than that observed. A self-consistent hypothesis is suggested for the probable birth of magnetic charges, during the turbine generator test under it's own momentum test, at the fourth power generating unit of CNPP, and for the impact of these charges on the reactivity coefficient.


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)



    The nonlinear and transient vibration of a rotor, which dropped onto back-up bearings when its active magnetic bearings were out of order, was investigated. After strictly deriving its equations of motion and performing numerical simulations, the timehistories of rotating speed of the dropping rotor, and normal force at the rubbing contact point as well as the frequency spectrum of the vibration displacement of back-up bearings are fully analyzed. It is found that the strong and unsteady forced bending vibration of the unbalanced and damped rotor decelerating through its first bending vibtation of the unbalanced and damped rotor decelerating through its first critical speed as well as chattering at high frequencies caused by the nonlinearity at the rubbing contact point between the journal and back-up bearings may lead to the catastrophic damage of the system.

  1. From catastrophic acceleration to deceleration of liquid plugs in prewetted capillary tubes

    CERN Document Server

    Magniez, J C; Liu, C; Zoueshtiagh, F


    The dynamics of individual liquid plugs pushed at constant pressure head inside prewetted cylindrical capillary tubes is investigated experimentally and theoretically. It is shown that, depending on the thickness of the prewetting film and the magnitude of the pressure head, the plugs can either experience a continuous acceler ation leading to a catastrophic decrease of their size and eventually their rupture or conversely, a progressive deceleration associated with their growth. These behaviors are quantitatively reproduced with a simple nonlinear model [Baudoin et al., Proc. Nat. Ac. Sci. USA, 2013, 110, 859] adapted here for cylindrical channels. Furthermore, an analytical criterion for the transition between these two regimes is obtained and successfully compared with extensive experimental data. The implications of this work for pulmonary obstructive diseases are discussed.

  2. Modified Anderson orthogonality catastrophe power law in the presence of shell structure (United States)

    Bandopadhyay, Swarnali; Hentschel, Martina


    We study Anderson orthogonality catastrophe (AOC) for parabolic quantum dots and focus on the effects of degeneracies, realized through the inherent shell structure of their energy levels that can be lifted through an external magnetic field, on the Anderson overlap. We find rich and interesting behaviors as a function of the strength and position of the perturbation, the system size, and the applied magnetic field. In particular, even for weak perturbations, we observe a pronounced AOC that is related to the degeneracy of energy levels. Most importantly, the power-law decay of the Anderson overlap as a function of the number of particles is modified in comparison to the metallic case due to the rearrangement of the energy-level shell structure. We support our analytical results by numerical calculations and also study the distribution of Anderson overlaps.

  3. Complex chromosomal rearrangements by single catastrophic pathogenesis in NUT midline carcinoma (United States)

    Lee, J.-K.; Louzada, S.; An, Y.; Kim, S. Y.; Kim, S.; Youk, J.; Park, S.; Koo, S. H.; Keam, B.; Jeon, Y. K.; Ku, J.-L.; Yang, F.; Kim, T. M.


    Background Nuclear protein in testis (NUT) midline carcinoma (NMC) is a rare aggressive malignancy often occurring in the tissues of midline anatomical structures. Except for the pathognomonic BRD3/4–NUT rearrangement, the comprehensive landscape of genomic alterations in NMCs has been unexplored. Patients and methods We investigated three NMC cases, including two newly diagnosed NMC patients in Seoul National University Hospital, and a previously reported cell line (Ty-82). Whole-genome and transcriptome sequencing were carried out for these cases, and findings were validated by multiplex fluorescence in situ hybridization and using individual fluorescence probes. Results Here, we present the first integrative analysis of whole-genome sequencing, transcriptome sequencing and cytogenetic characterization of NUT midline carcinomas. By whole-genome sequencing, we identified a remarkably similar pattern of highly complex genomic rearrangements (previously denominated as chromoplexy) involving the BRD3/4–NUT oncogenic rearrangements in two newly diagnosed NMC cases. Transcriptome sequencing revealed that these complex rearrangements were transcribed as very simple BRD3/4–NUT fusion transcripts. In Ty-82 cells, we also identified a complex genomic rearrangement involving the BRD4–NUT rearrangement underlying the simple t(15;19) karyotype. Careful inspections of rearrangement breakpoints indicated that these rearrangements were likely attributable to single catastrophic events. Although the NMC genomes had >3000 somatic point mutations, canonical oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes were rarely affected, indicating that they were largely passenger events. Mutational signature analysis showed predominant molecular clock-like signatures in all three cases (accounting for 54%−75% of all base substitutions), suggesting that NMCs may arise from actively proliferating normal cells. Conclusion Taken together, our findings suggest that a single catastrophic event in

  4. A test of catastrophic transition mechanisms in the Chihuahuan Desert Grassland (United States)

    Svejcar, L.; Bestelmeyer, B.; Duniway, M.


    Dryland ecosystems are known to undergo transitions from grassland or savanna states to shrub-dominated and/or eroded states with persistent loss of herbaceous vegetation. Theoretical models for predicting critical thresholds between states have been examined in drylands to search for early warning indicators, yet there is scant empirical evidence for the mechanisms. The models postulate that larger patches are favorable environments for plant growth in arid ecosystems due to short-range facilitation. The breakdown of large patches is thought to trigger catastrophic transitions. We tested assumptions underpinning these models using an experiment in black grama grassland (Bouteloua eriopoda Torr.) of the Chihuahuan Desert in which variable grazing intensities produced a wide range of patch sizes in plots with differing mesquite shrub (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) densities. We tested the hypothesis that growth, reproductive capability, and reproductive success of black grama plants would be greater in larger plant patches than in smaller patches. From 2010-2012 we measured numbers of stolons, ramets, rooted ramets and young individual plants associated with focal black grama plants and fixed areas within each patch. We found that the largest patches did not always feature the highest rates of grass reproduction across years, suggesting that patch size does not consistently indicate the patch persistence mechanisms proposed in catastrophic transition models. Other factors, such as resource competition within patches, may play important roles in black grama grasslands. When assessing rangeland conditions in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, theoretical models of critical thresholds and early warning indicators should be applied with caution.

  5. Healthcare coalitions: the new foundation for national healthcare preparedness and response for catastrophic health emergencies. (United States)

    Courtney, Brooke; Toner, Eric; Waldhorn, Richard; Franco, Crystal; Rambhia, Kunal; Norwood, Ann; Inglesby, Thomas V; O'Toole, Tara


    After 9/11 and the 2001 anthrax letters, it was evident that our nation's healthcare system was largely underprepared to handle the unique needs and large volumes of people who would seek medical care following catastrophic health events. In response, in 2002 Congress established the Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to strengthen the ability of U.S. hospitals to prepare for and respond to bioterrorism and naturally occurring epidemics and disasters. Since 2002, the program has resulted in substantial improvements in individual hospitals' disaster readiness. In 2007, the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) contracted with the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center to conduct an assessment of U.S. hospital preparedness and to develop tools and recommendations for evaluating and improving future hospital preparedness efforts. One of the most important findings from this work is that healthcare coalitions-collaborative groups of local healthcare institutions and response agencies that work together to prepare for and respond to emergencies-have emerged throughout the U.S. since the HPP began. This article provides an overview of the HPP and the Center's hospital preparedness research for ASPR. Based on that work, the article also defines healthcare coalitions and identifies their structure and core functions, provides examples of more developed coalitions and common challenges faced by coalitions, and proposes that healthcare coalitions should become the foundation of a national strategy for healthcare preparedness and response for catastrophic health events.

  6. Landscape evolution in relation with occurrence of gravitational slope deformation and catastrophic landslides (United States)

    Tsou, Ching-Ying; Chigira, Masahiro; Matsushi, Yuki; Chen, Su-Chin


    The Central Range of Taiwan is an example of a tectonically active orogen. The topography of a mountainous catchment of the Dahan River in northern side of the Central Range exhibits V-shaped inner valleys where landsliding is the dominant process of hillslope erosion and bedrock rivers are incising into the landscape. We take two approaches including (i) the study of present day morphostructural features of gravitationally deformed slopes and (ii) the study of the relationship between the gravitational slope deformation and fluvial incision to research the linkage of gravitational slope deformations, catastrophic landslides, and landscape evolution for the prediction of potential sites of future landslides. Mapped deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and scars of rainfall-induced rock/debris avalanches imply that their distributions are closely related to three series of convex slope breaks relating to the rejuvenation of topography by a three-phase fluvial incision leaded by three series of knickpoints migration. Many shallow rock/debris avalanches have occurred below the lowest slope break. By contrast, majority of gravitational slope deformations have occurred at the margins of the highest slope break around the paleosurface remnants, suggesting that the rejuvenation caused debuttressing of hillslopes and subsequent stress-release led to large scale slope destabilization, resulting in gravitational slope deformations. Catastrophic landslides in many locations deem to be preceded by gravitational slope deformation of rocks with adverse geological structures, many of which are buckling of alternating beds of sandstone and mudstone, and toppling of argillite and slate. The gravitationally deformed slopes change the topography and remain for a long time, and commonly accompany with some other types of mass movements (e.g. debris flows, rock/debris avalanches, and rockfalls). The results suggest that landslides are strongly controlled by geomorphology and

  7. Quantification of tsunami-induced flows on a Mediterranean carbonate ramp reveals catastrophic evolution (United States)

    Slootman, Arnoud; Cartigny, Matthieu J. B.; Moscariello, Andrea; Chiaradia, Massimo; de Boer, Poppe L.


    Cool-water carbonates are the dominant limestones in the Mediterranean Basin since the Early Pliocene. Their deposition typically resulted in ramp morphologies due to high rates of resedimentation. Several such fossil carbonate ramps are characterised by a bimodal facies stacking pattern, where background deposition of subaqueous dune and/or tempestite deposits is repeatedly interrupted by anomalously thick sedimentary units, dominated by backset-stratification formed by supercritical flows. A multitude of exceptional triggers (e.g. storms, floods, tsunamis) have been invoked to explain the origin of these supercritical flows, which, in the absence of a quantitative analysis, remains speculative as yet. Here, for the first time, the catastrophic evolution of one such Mediterranean carbonate ramp, on Favignana Island (Italy), is quantified by combining 87Sr/86Sr dating, outcrop-based palaeoflow reconstructions and hydraulic calculations. We demonstrate that rare tsunami-induced flows, occurring on average once every 14 to 35 kyr, lasting a few hours only, deposited the anomalously thick backset-bedded units that form half of the sedimentary record. In between such events, cumulative two years of storm-induced flows deposited the remaining half of the succession by the stacking of subaqueous dunes. The two to four orders of magnitude difference in average recurrence period between the two flow types, and their associated sedimentation rates, emphasises the genetic differences between the two styles of deposition. In terms of sediment transport, the studied carbonate ramp was inactive for at least 99% of the time with gradual progradation during decennial to centennial storm activity. Carbonate ramp evolution attained a catastrophic signature by the contribution of rare tsunamis, producing short-lived, high-energy sediment gravity flows.

  8. Catastrophic neurological complications of emergent endotracheal intubation: report of 2 cases. (United States)

    Oppenlander, Mark E; Hsu, Forrest D; Bolton, Patrick; Theodore, Nicholas


    Although exceedingly rare, catastrophic neurological decline may result from endotracheal intubation of patients with preexisting cervical spine disease. The authors report on 2 cases of quadriplegia resulting from emergent endotracheal intubation in the intensive care unit. A 68-year-old man with ankylosing spondylitis became quadriplegic after emergent intubation. A new C6-7 fracturedislocation was identified, and the patient underwent emergent open reduction and C4-T2 posterior fixation and fusion. The patient remained quadriplegic and ultimately died of pneumonia 1 year later. This is the first report with radiographic documentation of a cervical fracture-dislocation resulting from intubation in a patient with ankylosing spondylitis. A 73-year-old man underwent posterior C6-T1 decompression and fixation for a C6-7 fracture. On postoperative Day 12, emergent intubation for respiratory distress resulted in C6-level quadriplegia. Imaging revealed acute spondyloptosis at C6-7, and the patient underwent emergent open reduction with revision and extension of posterior fusion from C-3 to T-2. He remained quadriplegic and ventilator dependent. Five days after the second operation, care was withdrawn. This is the first report of intubation as a cause of significant neurological decline related to disruption of a recently fixated cervical fracture. Risk factors are identified and pertinent literature is reviewed for cases of catastrophic neurological complications after emergent endotracheal intubation. Strategies for obtaining airway control in patients with cervical spine pathology are also identified. Awareness of the potential dangers of airway management in patients with cervical spine pathology is critical for all involved subspecialty team members.

  9. Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers. (United States)

    Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G


    The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

  10. Z Theory


    Nekrasov, Nikita


    We present the evidence for the existence of the topological string analogue of M-theory, which we call Z-theory. The corners of Z-theory moduli space correspond to the Donaldson-Thomas theory, Kodaira-Spencer theory, Gromov-Witten theory, and Donaldson-Witten theory. We discuss the relations of Z-theory with Hitchin's gravities in six and seven dimensions, and make our own proposal, involving spinor generalization of Chern-Simons theory of three-forms. Based on the talk at Strings'04 in Paris.

  11. Analytical and computational methodology to assess the over pressures generated by a potential catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamora, I.; Fradera, J.; Jaskiewicz, F.; Lopez, D.; Hermosa, B.; Aleman, A.; Izquierdo, J.; Buskop, J.


    Idom has participated in the risk evaluation of Safety Important Class (SIC) structures due to over pressures generated by a catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel at ITER plant site. The evaluation implements both analytical and computational methodologies achieving consistent and robust results. (Author)

  12. Emergency Management Span of Control: Optimizing Organizational Structures to Better Prepare Vermont for the Next Major or Catastrophic Disaster (United States)


    football . It is a merciless context for a mission that is difficult at best. Coping with Catastrophe, 16-17. At the state and local levels, rsa /html/viii/107-c/107-c- mrg.htm (accessed August 16, 2008). 223 Notice from the survey provider: “One or more of your

  13. Children's selective attention to pain and avoidance behaviour: the role of child and parental catastrophizing about pain. (United States)

    Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri M L


    The present study investigated selective attention to pain in children, its implications for child avoidance behaviour, and the moderating role of dimensions comprising child and parental catastrophizing about pain (ie, rumination, magnification, and helplessness). Participants were 59 children (31 boys) aged 10-16 years and one of their parents (41 mothers). Children performed a dot-probe task in which child facial pain displays of varying pain expressiveness were presented. Child avoidance behaviour was indexed by child pain tolerance during a cold-pressor task. Children and parents completed measures of child and parent pain catastrophizing, respectively. Findings indicated that both the nature of child selective attention to pain and the impact of selective attention upon child avoidance behaviour were differentially sensitive to specific dimensions of child and parental catastrophizing. Specifically, findings showed greater tendency to shift attention away from pain faces (i.e.,, attentional avoidance) among children reporting greater pain magnification. A similar pattern was observed in terms of parental characteristics, such that children increasingly shifted attention away from pain with increasing levels of parental rumination and helplessness. Furthermore, child attentional avoidance was associated with greater avoidance behaviour (i.e., lower pain tolerance) among children reporting high levels of pain magnification and those whose parents reported greater rumination about pain. The current findings corroborate catastrophizing as a multidimensional construct that may differentially impact outcomes and attest to the importance of assessing both child and parental characteristics in relation to child pain-related attention and avoidance behaviour. Further research directions are discussed.

  14. Risk allocation in a public-private catastrophe insurance system : an actuarial analysis of deductibles, stop-loss, and premiums

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Dijkstra, T. K.


    A public-private (PP) partnership could be a viable arrangement for providing insurance coverage for catastrophe events, such as floods and earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into efficient and practical allocations of risk in a PP insurance system. In particular, this st

  15. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Turkish version of the pain catastrophizing scale among patients with ankylosing spondylitis. (United States)

    İlçin, Nursen; Gürpınar, Barış; Bayraktar, Deniz; Savcı, Sema; Çetin, Pınar; Sarı, İsmail; Akkoç, Nurullah


    [Purpose] This study describes the cultural adaptation, validation, and reliability of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. [Methods] The validity of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was assessed by evaluating data quality (missing data and floor and ceiling effects), principal components analysis, internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha), and construct validity (Spearman's rho). Reproducibility analyses included standard measurement error, minimum detectable change, limits of agreement, and intraclass correlation coefficients. [Results] Sixty-four adult patients with ankylosing spondylitis with a mean age of 42.2 years completed the study. Factor analysis revealed that all questionnaire items could be grouped into two factors. Excellent internal consistency was found, with a Chronbach's alpha value of 0.95. Reliability analyses showed an intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) of 0.96 for the total score. There was a low correlation coefficient between the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and body mass index, pain levels at rest and during activity, health-related quality of life, and fear and avoidance behaviors. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicate that the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale is a valid and reliable clinical and research tool for patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

  16. Mechanism of the December 2015 Catastrophic Landslide at the Shenzhen Landfill and Controlling Geotechnical Risks of Urbanization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueping Yin


    Full Text Available This paper presents findings from an investigation of the large-scale construction solid waste (CSW landslide that occurred at a landfill at Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, on December 20, 2015, and which killed 77 people and destroyed 33 houses. The landslide involved 2.73×106 m3 of CSW and affected an area about 1100 m in length and 630 m in maximum width, making it the largest landfill landslide in the world. The investigation of this disaster used a combination of unmanned aerial vehicle surveillance and multistage remote-sensing images to reveal the increasing volume of waste in the landfill and the shifting shape of the landfill slope for nearly two years before the landslide took place, beginning with the creation of the CSW landfill in March, 2014, that resulted in the uncertain conditions of the landfill's boundaries and the unstable state of the hydrologic performance. As a result, applying conventional stability analysis methods used for natural landslides to this case would be difficult. In order to analyze this disaster, we took a multistage modeling technique to analyze the varied characteristics of the landfill slope's structure at various stages of CSW dumping and used the non-steady flow theory to explain the groundwater seepage problem. The investigation showed that the landfill could be divided into two units based on the moisture in the land: a front uint, consisted of the landfill slope, which had low water content; and a rear unit, consisted of fresh waste, which had a high water content. This structure caused two effects—surface-water infiltration and consolidation seepage that triggered the landslide in the landfill. Surface-water infiltration induced a gradual increase in pore water pressure head, or piezometric head, in the front slope because the infiltrating position rose as the volume of waste placement increased. Consolidation seepage led to higher excess pore water pressures as the loading of waste increased. We

  17. Anxiety sensitivity, catastrophic misinterpretations and panic self-efficacy in the prediction of panic disorder severity: towards a tripartite cognitive model of panic disorder. (United States)

    Sandin, Bonifacio; Sánchez-Arribas, Carmen; Chorot, Paloma; Valiente, Rosa M


    The present study examined the contribution of three main cognitive factors (i.e., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily symptoms, and panic self-efficacy) in predicting panic disorder (PD) severity in a sample of patients with a principal diagnosis of panic disorder. It was hypothesized that anxiety sensitivity (AS), catastrophic misinterpretation of bodily sensations, and panic self-efficacy are uniquely related to panic disorder severity. One hundred and sixty-eight participants completed measures of AS, catastrophic misinterpretations of panic-like sensations, and panic self-efficacy prior to receiving treatment. Results of multiple linear regression analyses indicated that AS, catastrophic misinterpretations and panic self-efficacy independently predicted panic disorder severity. Results of path analyses indicated that AS was direct and indirectly (mediated by catastrophic misinterpretations) related with panic severity. Results provide evidence for a tripartite cognitive account of panic disorder.

  18. Pain acceptance potentially mediates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgery outcomes among compensated lumbar fusion patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dance C


    Full Text Available Cassie Dance,1 M. Scott DeBerard,1 Jessica Gundy Cuneo2 1Department of Psychology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Chronic low back pain is highly prevalent and often treatment recalcitrant condition, particularly among workers’ compensation patients. There is a need to identify psychological factors that may predispose such patients to pain chronicity. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether pain acceptance potentially mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgical outcomes in a sample of compensated lumbar fusion patients.Patients and methods: Patients insured with the Workers Compensation Fund of Utah and who were at least 2 years post-lumbar fusion surgery completed an outcome survey. These data were obtained from a prior retrospective-cohort study that administered measures of pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, mental and physical health, and disability.Results: Of the 101 patients who completed the outcome survey, 75.2% were male with a mean age of 42.42 years and predominantly identified as White (97.0%. The majority of the participants had a posterior lumbar interbody fusion surgery. Pain acceptance, including activity engagement and pain willingness, was significantly correlated with better physical health and mental health, and lower disability rates. Pain catastrophizing was inversely correlated with measures of pain acceptance (activity engagement r=–0.67, p<0.01, pain willingness r=–0.73, p<0.01 as well as the outcome measures: mental health, physical health, and disability. Pain acceptance significantly mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and both mental and physical health and also the relationship between pain catastrophizing and disability. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the relationship between pain catastrophizing and negative patient outcomes was potentially mediated

  19. Nonlinear dynamics and neo-piagetian theories in problem solving: perspectives on a new epistemology and theory development. (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios


    In this study, an attempt is made to integrate Nonlinear Dynamical Systems theory and neo-Piagetian theories applied to creative mental processes, such as problem solving. A catastrophe theory model is proposed, which implements three neo-Piagetian constructs as controls: the functional M-capacity as asymmetry and logical thinking and the degree of field dependence independence as bifurcation. Data from achievement scores of students in tenth grade physics were analyzed using dynamic difference equations and statistical regression techniques. The cusp catastrophe model proved superior comparing to the pre-post linear counterpart and demonstrated nonlinearity at the behavioral level. The nonlinear phenomenology, such as hysteresis effects and bifurcation, is explained by an analysis, which provides a causal interpretation via the mathematical theory of self-organization and thus building bridges between NDS-theory concepts and neo-Piagetian theories. The contribution to theory building is made, by also addressing the emerging philosophical, - ontological and epistemological- questions about the processes of problem solving and creativity.

  20. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima; Atomkatastrophe in Japan. Gesundheitliche Folgen von Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold


    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  1. Super persistent chaotic transients and catastrophic bifurcation from riddled to fractal basins (United States)

    Andrade, Victor Antonio


    This dissertation treats two related problems in chaotic dynamics: (1) super persistent chaotic transients in physical systems, and (2) catastrophic bifurcation from riddled to fractal basins. For the first problem, we investigate super persistent chaotic transient by studying the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. A super persistent chaotic transient is typically induced by an unstable-unstable pair bifurcation in which two unstable periodic orbits of the same period coalesce and disappear as a system parameter is changed through a critical value. So far examples illustrating this type of transient chaos utilize discrete-time maps. We present a class of continuous-time dynamical systems that exhibit super persistent chaotic transients in parameter regimes of positive measure. In particular, we examine the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. It is found that additive white noise can induce phase slips in integer multiples of 2pi's in parameter regimes where phase synchronization is expected in the absence of noise. The average time durations of the temporal phase synchronization are in fact characteristic of those of super persistent chaotic transients. We provide heuristic arguments for the scaling law of the average transient lifetime and verify it using numerical examples from both the system of coupled Chua's circuits and that of coupled Rossler oscillators. Our work suggests a way to observe super persistent chaotic transients in physically realizable systems. For the second problem, we investigate the effect of symmetry-breaking on riddling. Most existing works on riddling assume that the underlying dynamical system possesses an invariant subspace that usually results from a symmetry. In realistic applications of chaotic systems, however, there exists no perfect symmetry. The aim of this part is to examine the consequences of symmetry-breaking on riddling. In particular, we consider

  2. La catastrofe come crisi organica ri-generativa. Per un’analisi gramsciana del sisma di maggio 2012 - Catastrophe as a “organic crisis” regenerative. For a Gramscian analysis of the earthquake of May 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Pitzalis


    Full Text Available In this research the author wishes to demonstrate – through the application of Gramscian theory to Ethnography – the regenerative potential of catastrophes, focusing in particular on their ability to create new forms of (reexistence. This hypothesis informs the fieldwork and was developed from the Gramscian concept of “organic crisis” as a result of a connection between a pre-existent situation of crisis and the violence of calamity. The catastrophe’s consequences in fact affect all sectors of society and end up bringing the incongruities of a given political system to the surface . More specifically, this approach constitutes the basis of the author’s analysis of the regenerative potential of earthquakes that struck the Po-Emilian Valley on the 20th and 29th of May 2012. Indeed these calamities prompted the creation of policies “from below” in response and as an alternative to those institutional interventions carried out during the post-disaster phase (specifically emergency and reconstruction. All the individuals involved in the creation of these alternative policies are members of Sisma.12, a committee of citizens-victims of the earthquakes. They could be defined as “subalterns” in light of their potential to become or create themselves as “political subjects”, using the catastrophe as an “opportunity for transformation”. The research investigates the modality within which these same individuals are able to become political subjects and achieve the change they hope for.

  3. Population and individual elephant response to a catastrophic fire in Pilanesberg National Park.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh-Ann Woolley

    Full Text Available In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability, did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern

  4. Cataclysms and Catastrophes: A Case Study of Improving K-12 Science Education Through a University Partnership (United States)

    Fennell, T.; Ellins, K. K.; Morris, M.; Christeson, G.


    The K-12 science teacher is always seeking ways of improving and updating their curriculum by integrating the latest research into their most effective classroom activities. However, the daily demands of delivering instruction to large numbers of students coupled with the rapid advances in some fields of science can often overwhelm this effort. The NSF-sponsored Cataclysms and Catastrophes curriculum, developed by scientists from the The University of Texas at Austin Institute for Geophysics (UTIG) and Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), middle and high school teachers, and UT graduate students (NSF GK-12 fellows) working together through the GK-12 program, is a textbook example of how universities can facilitate this quest, benefiting education at both K-12 and university levels. In 1992, "The Great K-T Extinction Debate" was developed as an activity in the Planet Earth class at the Liberal Arts and Science Academy of Austin as an interdisciplinary approach to science. Taking advantage of the media attention generated by the impact scenario for the K-T extinction, the activity consists of students participating in a simulated senate hearing on the potential causes of the K-T extinction and their implications for society today. This activity not only exposes students to the wide range of science involved in understanding mass extinctions, but also to the social, political and economic implications when this science is brought into the public arena and the corresponding use of data in decision making and disaster preparedness. While "The Great K-T Extinction Debate" was always a popular and effective activity with students, it was in desperate need of updating to keep pace with the evolving scientific debate over the cause of the K-T extinction and the growing body of impact evidence discovered over the past decade. By adding two inquiry-based learning activities that use real geophysical data collected by scientists studying the buried Chicxulub feature as a

  5. No short-term cytogenetic consequences of Hungarian red mud catastrophe. (United States)

    Gundy, Sarolta; Farkas, Gyöngyi; Székely, Gábor; Kásler, Miklós


    Red mud is an industrial waste produced in the process of alumina extraction from bauxite with concentrated NaOH. When the red mud-containing reservoir collapsed in Ajka Alumina Plant Hungary in October 2010, the most serious immediate effects were caused by the high alkalinity (pH ≥ 13) of the flood. Many persons suffered burn-like damage to tissues and contact with caustic desiccated ultra-fine dust with traces of toxic metals also caused irritation of upper respiratory tract and eyes. This catastrophe was unique from the point of view of genotoxic effects as well. Therefore cytogenetic examinations were carried out on inhabitants, either with burns (17 persons) or on those inhaling desiccated caustic dust (42 persons). Chromosomal aberration (CA) analysis and bleomycin (BLM)-sensitivity assays, as possible markers of effects, were studied in peripheral blood lymphocytes of persons within 4-6 weeks following the catastrophe. Controls were matched for age, sex and smoking habits, and also places of residence with different constituents of air pollution either from rural (59 persons), or from urban environments (59 persons). Neither spontaneous rate of CAs (1.47% vs. 1.69%) nor BLM-induced in vitro chromosomal breakage (0.79 vs. 0.83 break/cell) showed elevated rates when cytogenetic biomarkers of genotoxicity were compared between controls and exposed persons. Time spent in cleaning did not affect cytogenetic changes either (R(2) = 0.04). BLM-induced mutagen sensitivity was similar in exposed and control persons (27.1% vs. 30.5%). It seems that the red mud exposure does not appear to pose an immediate genotoxic hazard on residents when measured with cytogenetic methods. We recommend, however, that those involved in clean-up activities should be followed closely not only for overall health, but also for further genotoxic risk assessment, because the long-term hazards of ultra-fine fugitive dust particles with alkalinity of residual NaOH in red mud are still

  6. An undergraduate laboratory experiment for measuring ε 0, μ 0 and speed of light c with do-it-yourself catastrophe machines: electrostatic and magnetostatic pendula (United States)

    Mishonov, Todor M.; Varonov, Albert M.; Maksimovski, Dejan D.; Manolev, Stojan G.; Gourev, Vassil N.; Yordanov, Vasil G.


    An experimental set-up for electrostatic measurement of {\\varepsilon }0, separate magnetostatic measurement of {μ }0 and determination of the speed of light c=1/\\sqrt{{\\varepsilon }0{μ }0} according to Maxwell’s theory with percent accuracy is described. No forces are measured with the experimental set-up, therefore there is no need for a scale, and the experiment cost of less than £20 is mainly due to the batteries used. Multiplied 137 times, this experimental set-up was given at the Fourth Open International Experimental Physics Olympiad (EPO4) and a dozen high school students performed successful experiments. The experimental set-up actually contains two different pendula for electric and magnetic measurements. In the magnetic experiment the pendulum is constituted by a magnetic coil attracted to a fixed one. In the electrostatic pendulum when the distance between the plates becomes shorter than a critical value the suspended plate catastrophically sticks to the fixed one, while in the magnetic pendulum the same occurs when the current in the coils becomes greater than a certain critical value. The basic idea of the methodology is to use the loss of stability as a tool for the determination of fundamental constants.

  7. Loop Quantum Theory Applied to Biology and Nonlinear Whole Biology

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Yi-Fang


    The loop quantum theory, which constitutes a very small discontinuous space, as new method is applied to biology. The model of protein folding and lungs is proposed. In the model, some known results are used, and four approximate conclusions are obtained: their structures are quantized, their space regions are finite, various singularities correspond to folding and crossed points, and different types of catastrophe exist. Further, based on the inseparability and correlativity of the biological systems, the nonlinear whole biology is proposed, and four basic hypotheses are formed. It may unify reductionism and holism, structuralism and functionalism. Finally, the medical meaning of the theory is discussed briefly.

  8. Effectiveness of the psychological and pharmacological treatment of catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia: a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magallón Rosa


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia is a prevalent and disabling disorder characterized by widespread pain and other symptoms such as insomnia, fatigue or depression. Catastrophization is considered a key clinical symptom in fibromyalgia; however, there are no studies on the pharmacological or psychological treatment of catastrophizing. The general aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of cognitive-behaviour therapy and recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia (pregabalin, with duloxetine added where there is a comorbid depression, compared with usual treatment at primary care level. Method/design Design: A multi-centre, randomized controlled trial involving three groups: the control group, consisting of usual treatment at primary care level, and two intervention groups, one consisting of cognitive-behaviour therapy, and the other consisting of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia. Setting: 29 primary care health centres in the city of Zaragoza, Spain. Sample: 180 patients, aged 18–65 years, able to understand and read Spanish, who fulfil criteria for primary fibromyalgia, with no previous psychological treatment, and no pharmacological treatment or their acceptance to discontinue it two weeks before the onset of the study. Intervention: Psychological treatment is based on the manualized protocol developed by Prof. Escobar et al, from the University of New Jersey, for the treatment of somatoform disorders, which has been adapted by our group for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It includes 10 weekly sessions of cognitive-behaviour therapy. Pharmacological therapy consists of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia: pregabalin (300–600 mg/day, with duloxetine (60–120 mg/day added where there is a comorbid depression. Measurements: The following socio-demographic data will be collected: sex, age, marital status, education, occupation and social class. The diagnosis of psychiatric

  9. The effectiveness of the nationwide BokSmart rugby injury prevention program on catastrophic injury rates. (United States)

    Brown, J C; Verhagen, E; Knol, D; Van Mechelen, W; Lambert, M I


    Rugby Union ("rugby") participants have a higher than average risk of injury compared with participants of other popular team sports. BokSmart, a nationwide injury prevention program was launched in South Africa in mid-2009, with the goal of reducing catastrophic head/neck (serious) injuries in players. The program provides injury prevention information to coaches and referees. This study investigated if BokSmart has been associated with a reduction in these injuries. The BokSmart program collected data on all South African rugby-related serious injuries since 2008. Using a Poisson regression, injury numbers were compared pre-BokSmart (2008-2009) to the years post-implementation (2010-2013). Player numbers were assumed to be constant throughout this evaluation: junior = 529,483; senior = 121,663. In junior players, the "post-BokSmart" period had 2.5 less annual serious injuries than "pre-BokSmart" (incidence rate ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.5-0.7, P < 0.000). In contrast, there was no significant difference in these periods in seniors. The absence of effect in seniors may be a result of fewer players or of differences in effectiveness of BokSmart in this group--future studies should investigate these questions.

  10. Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks? (United States)

    Jebari, Karim


    Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

  11. A sustainable training strategy for improving health care following a catastrophic radiological or nuclear incident. (United States)

    Blumenthal, Daniel J; Bader, Judith L; Christensen, Doran; Koerner, John; Cuellar, John; Hinds, Sidney; Crapo, John; Glassman, Erik; Potter, A Bradley; Singletary, Lynda


    The detonation of a nuclear device in a US city would be catastrophic. Enormous loss of life and injuries would characterize an incident with profound human, political, social, and economic implications. Nevertheless, most responders have not received sufficient training about ionizing radiation, principles of radiation safety, or managing, diagnosing, and treating radiation-related injuries and illnesses. Members throughout the health care delivery system, including medical first responders, hospital first receivers, and health care institution support personnel such as janitors, hospital administrators, and security personnel, lack radiation-related training. This lack of knowledge can lead to failure of these groups to respond appropriately after a nuclear detonation or other major radiation incident and limit the effectiveness of the medical response and recovery effort. Efficacy of the response can be improved by getting each group the information it needs to do its job. This paper proposes a sustainable training strategy for spreading curricula throughout the necessary communities. It classifies the members of the health care delivery system into four tiers and identifies tasks for each tier and the radiation-relevant knowledge needed to perform these tasks. By providing education through additional modules to existing training structures, connecting radioactive contamination control to daily professional practices, and augmenting these systems with just-in-time training, the strategy creates a sustainable mechanism for giving members of the health care community improved ability to respond during a radiological or nuclear crisis, reducing fatalities, mitigating injuries, and improving the resiliency of the community.

  12. Substantial Contribution of Anthropogenic Air Pollution to Catastrophic Floods in Southwest China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Yang, Yan; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Zhanqing


    Extreme events such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, have become more frequent since the 1950s1-2. This is likely caused through changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols that perturb the radiative balance and alter cloud processes3-8. On 8-9 July, 2013 a catastrophic flood devastated several metropolitan areas at the foothills of the Sichuan Basin. Using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-chemistry model, we show that this disaster was not entirely natural. Ensemble simulations robustly show that the severe anthropogenic pollution in the Sichuan Basin significantly enhanced rainfall intensity over the mountainous area northwest of the basin. The heavy air pollution (mainly black carbon) absorbs solar radiation in the lower atmosphere at the expense of surface cooling, which stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection and precipitation over the basin. The enhanced moisture and moist static energy over the basin are then transported by the prevailing winds towards the mountains during daytime. As the excessive moist air that reaches the foothills at night is orographically lifted, very strong convection develops and produces extremely heavy precipitation. Reducing black carbon (BC) emissions in the basin can effectively mitigate the extreme precipitation in the mountains. Unfortunately, BC emissions have been increasing in many developing countries including China9, making them more vulnerable to enhanced disasters as reported here.

  13. The Flare Up of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: a Report of an Immunosuppressive Withdrawal-Induced Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayyed Gholamreza Mortazavimoghaddam


    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS is a systemic disease that causes venous and arterial thrombosis in virtually any organ. Sometimes it is complicated into pulmonary infarction and cavitation, pulmonary hypertension, and catastrophic course with high morbidity and mortality. The present case is a 35-year-old woman with one episode of postpartum deep veins thrombosis (DVT 12 years earlier and the second one after the second labor two years later. In spite of usual therapy for each episode of DVT, the condition had progressed into severe pulmonary hypertension. The diagnosis of primary APL syndrome was confirmed four years ago. She had been on warfarin, low dose of steroid, and azathioprine since the diagnosis of APL syndrome. After one year treatment with steroid and azathiprine the patient showed progressive well being; however, because of hyperglycemia the steroid tapered and discontinued. She had several attacks of paroxismal atrial tachycardia in the last year. On the last time, she presented with severe dyspnea, hemoptesis, and lower limbs edema. Chest radiography and Lung CT scan demonsterated the presence of lung cavitations. Because of high suspicious for fungal pulmonary infection, azathioprine was also discontinued. However, constellation renal failure, hemodynamic instability, and confusion caused the patient to succumb to death. The definite diagnosis of lung cavitations was not obtained

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in pregnancy, a diagnosis that should not be missed. (United States)

    Hoayek, Jennifer G; Moussa, Hind N; Rehman, Hina A; Nasab, Susan Hosseini; Blackwell, Sean C; Sibai, Baha M


    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an accelerated form of the antiphospholipid antibody syndrome resulting in multi-organ ischemia and failure. It is a rare and life-threatening condition that can be easily mistaken with hemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelets syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and hemolytic uremic syndrome. In order to make a diagnosis, it is required to have multi-organ thrombosis over 1 week affecting at least three organs or systems, and to have positive antiphospholipid antibody on two occasions (6 weeks apart), and histopathologic confirmation of small vessel occlusion. However, due to similarities in clinical and laboratory findings between CAPS and some other obstetric complications, potential misdiagnosis or delay in diagnosis are common, increasing the risk of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. In this review we summarized information presented in previous studies, focusing on CAPS related to pregnancy. We reviewed diagnostic criteria, differential diagnosis, and common presentation ranging from malaise, abdominal pain, dyspnea, hypertension, to altered mental status and seizures. We also discussed management in pregnancy and included a detailed algorithm with steps to take. Of note, the most significant reduction in mortality was seen in patients receiving triple therapy which will be discussed in this review.

  15. Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action. (United States)

    Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul


    The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.

  16. Ecological Catastrophes and Disturbance Relicts: A Case Study from Easter Island (United States)

    Wynne, J.


    Caves are often considered buffered environments in terms of their ability to sustain near constant microclimatic conditions. However, environments within cave entrances are expected to respond most quickly to changing surface conditions. We cataloged a relict assemblage of at least 10 endemic arthropods likely restricted to caves and occurring primarily within cave entranceways. Of these animals, eight were considered new undescribed species. These endemic arthropods have persisted in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) caves despite a catastrophic ecological shift induced by island-wide deforestation, fire intolerance, and drought, as well as intensive livestock grazing and surface ecosystems dominated by invasive species. We consider these animals to be "disturbance relicts" - species whose distributions are now limited to areas that experienced minimal human disturbance historically. Today, these species represent one-third of the Rapa Nui's known endemic arthropods. Given the island's severely depauperate native fauna, these arthropods should be considered among the highest priority targets for biological conservation. In other regions globally, epigean examples of imperiled disturbance relicts persisting within narrow distributional ranges have been documented. As human activity intensifies, and habitat loss and fragmentation continues worldwide, additional disturbance relicts will be identified. We expect extinction debts, global climate change and interactions with invasive species will challenge the persistence of both hypogean and epigean disturbance relict species.

  17. Lack of p53 function promotes radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in mouse embryonic fibroblast cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillips Stacia L


    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have demonstrated that in some human cancer cells both chronic mild heat and ionizing radiation exposures induce a transient block in S and G2 phases of the cell cycle. During this delay, cyclin B1 protein accumulates to supranormal levels, cyclin B1-dependent kinase is activated, and abrogation of the G2/M checkpoint control occurs resulting in mitotic catastrophe (MC. Results Using syngenic mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEF with wild-type or mutant p53, we now show that, while both cell lines exhibit delays in S/G2 phase post-irradiation, the mutant p53 cells show elevated levels of cyclin B1 followed by MC, while the wild-type p53 cells present both a lower accumulation of cyclin B1 and a lower frequency of MC. Conclusion These results are in line with studies reporting the role of p53 as a post-transcriptional regulator of cyclin B1 protein and confirm that dysregulation of cyclin B1 promote radiation-induced MC. These findings might be exploited to design strategies to augment the yield of MC in tumor cells that are resistant to radiation-induced apoptosis.

  18. Molecular Mechanisms of Fenofibrate-Induced Metabolic Catastrophe and Glioblastoma Cell Death (United States)

    Wilk, Anna; Wyczechowska, Dorota; Zapata, Adriana; Dean, Matthew; Mullinax, Jennifer; Marrero, Luis; Parsons, Christopher; Peruzzi, Francesca; Culicchia, Frank; Ochoa, Augusto; Grabacka, Maja


    Fenofibrate (FF) is a common lipid-lowering drug and a potent agonist of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARα). FF and several other agonists of PPARα have interesting anticancer properties, and our recent studies demonstrate that FF is very effective against tumor cells of neuroectodermal origin. In spite of these promising anticancer effects, the molecular mechanism(s) of FF-induced tumor cell toxicity remains to be elucidated. Here we report a novel PPARα-independent mechanism explaining FF's cytotoxicity in vitro and in an intracranial mouse model of glioblastoma. The mechanism involves accumulation of FF in the mitochondrial fraction, followed by immediate impairment of mitochondrial respiration at the level of complex I of the electron transport chain. This mitochondrial action sensitizes tested glioblastoma cells to the PPARα-dependent metabolic switch from glycolysis to fatty acid β-oxidation. As a consequence, prolonged exposure to FF depletes intracellular ATP, activates the AMP-activated protein kinase–mammalian target of rapamycin–autophagy pathway, and results in extensive tumor cell death. Interestingly, autophagy activators attenuate and autophagy inhibitors enhance FF-induced glioblastoma cytotoxicity. Our results explain the molecular basis of FF-induced glioblastoma cytotoxicity and reveal a new supplemental therapeutic approach in which intracranial infusion of FF could selectively trigger metabolic catastrophe in glioblastoma cells. PMID:25332241

  19. Mitotic Catastrophe的研究进展%Progress in Mitotic Catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张博; 周平坤


    细胞死亡是多细胞生物生命过程中重要的生理或病理现象,可分为坏死和程序性细胞死亡,而后者根据死亡细胞的形态学和发生机制的不同又可分为凋亡、自吞噬和mitotic catastrophe,其中mitotic catastrophe是近年来才被揭示报道,是指细胞在有丝分裂过程中死亡的现象,是一种发生在细胞有丝分裂期由于异常的细胞分裂而导致的细胞死亡,它常常伴随着细胞有丝分裂检查点的异常和基因或纺锤体结构的损伤而发生.现对mitotic catastrophe及相关的调控机制进行综述.

  20. Coping with health-care costs: implications for the measurement of catastrophic expenditures and poverty. (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; Krishnakumar, Jaya; O'Donnell, Owen; van Doorslaer, Eddy


    In the absence of formal health insurance, we argue that the strategies households adopt to finance health care have important implications for the measurement and interpretation of how health payments impact on consumption and poverty. Given data on source of finance, we propose to (a) approximate the relative impact of health payments on current consumption with a 'coping'-adjusted health expenditure ratio, (b) uncover poverty that is 'hidden' because total household expenditure is inflated by financial coping strategies and (c) identify poverty that is 'transient' because necessary consumption is temporarily sacrificed to pay for health care. Measures that ignore coping strategies not only overstate the risk to current consumption and exaggerate the scale of catastrophic payments but also overlook the long-run burden of health payments. Nationally representative data from India reveal that coping strategies finance as much as three-quarters of the cost of inpatient care. Payments for inpatient care exceed 10% of total household expenditure for around 30% of hospitalized households but less than 4% sacrifice more than 10% of current consumption to accommodate this spending.Ignoring health payments leads to underestimate poverty by 7-8% points among hospitalized households; 80% of this adjustment is hidden poverty due to coping.

  1. Planck's High Temperature Catastrophe in Observational Astronomy:- (NASA proves Planck wrong) (United States)

    Gall, Clarence A.


    Planck's black body radiation law ( IP=c1 λ^51e^c2λT -1) predicts that a hotter body (higher T) should always emit more intensely than a colder body (lower T) throughout the entire EMR spectrum. However, space age infrared astronomy contradicts this prediction! It is now known that as observation moves from the visible to the near-, mid- and far infrared; increasingly cold celestial objects come into view while hotter ones fade and disappear ( al/irregions.html). Were Planck's law valid, the hottest stars would never disappear; and colder objects would not be detected. This can only be described as a high temperature catastrophe (BAPS, April Meeting 2008, H12.3, St Louis, MO) for Planck's law! On the other hand, Gall's black body radiation law ( IG=σT^6b^2λe^-λTb) ( predicts that as wavelength increases, there is a crossover point above which a colder object will emit more intensely than a hotter one. Hence colder objects will appear and hotter ones will eventually disappear from view. The crossover point for black bodies at 6000K and 100K is 12.066 microns. These calculations with Gall's law are in overall agreement with observational infrared astronomy.

  2. Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk (United States)

    Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James


    Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

  3. Glycophthalocyanines as photosensitizers for triggering mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in cancer cells. (United States)

    Soares, Ana R M; Neves, Maria G P M S; Tomé, Augusto C; Iglesias-de la Cruz, M Carmen; Zamarrón, Alicia; Carrasco, Elisa; González, Salvador; Cavaleiro, José A S; Torres, Tomás; Guldi, Dirk M; Juarranz, Angeles


    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a treatment modality for different forms of cancer based on the combination of light, molecular oxygen, and a photosensitizer (PS) compound. When activated by light, the PS generates reactive oxygen species leading to tumor destruction. Phthalocyanines are compounds that have already shown to be efficient PSs for PDT. Several examples of carbohydrate substituted phthalocyanines have been reported, assuming that the presence of carbohydrate moieties could improve their tumor selectivity. This work describes the photoeffects of symmetric and asymmetric phthalocyanines with D-galactose (so-called GPh1, GPh2, and GPh3) on HeLa carcinoma cells and their involvement in cell death. Photophysical properties and in vitro photodynamic activities for the compounds considered revealed that the asymmetric glycophthalocyanine GPh3 is very efficient and selective, producing higher photocytotoxicity on cancer cells than in nonmalignat HaCaT. The cell toxiticy after PDT treatment was dependent upon light exposure level and GPh3 concentration. GPh3 causes cell cycle arrest at the metaphase stage leading to multiple spindle poles, mitotic catastrophe, followed by apoptosis in cancer cells. These effects were partially negated by the pancaspase inhibitor Z-VAD-FMK. Together, these results indicate that GPh3 is an excellent candidate drug for PDT, able to induce selective tumor cell death.

  4. Histone deacetylase inhibitors promote glioma cell death by G2 checkpoint abrogation leading to mitotic catastrophe. (United States)

    Cornago, M; Garcia-Alberich, C; Blasco-Angulo, N; Vall-Llaura, N; Nager, M; Herreros, J; Comella, J X; Sanchis, D; Llovera, M


    Glioblastoma multiforme is resistant to conventional anti-tumoral treatments due to its infiltrative nature and capability of relapse; therefore, research efforts focus on characterizing gliomagenesis and identifying molecular targets useful on therapy. New therapeutic strategies are being tested in patients, such as Histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACi) either alone or in combination with other therapies. Here two HDACi included in clinical trials have been tested, suberanilohydroxamic acid (SAHA) and valproic acid (VPA), to characterize their effects on glioma cell growth in vitro and to determine the molecular changes that promote cancer cell death. We found that both HDACi reduce glioma cell viability, proliferation and clonogenicity. They have multiple effects, such as inducing the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and activating the mitochondrial apoptotic pathway, nevertheless cell death is not prevented by the pan-caspase inhibitor Q-VD-OPh. Importantly, we found that HDACi alter cell cycle progression by decreasing the expression of G2 checkpoint kinases Wee1 and checkpoint kinase 1 (Chk1). In addition, HDACi reduce the expression of proteins involved in DNA repair (Rad51), mitotic spindle formation (TPX2) and chromosome segregation (Survivin) in glioma cells and in human glioblastoma multiforme primary cultures. Therefore, HDACi treatment causes glioma cell entry into mitosis before DNA damage could be repaired and to the formation of an aberrant mitotic spindle that results in glioma cell death through mitotic catastrophe-induced apoptosis.

  5. Reactivating HIF prolyl hydroxylases under hypoxia results in metabolic catastrophe and cell death. (United States)

    Tennant, D A; Frezza, C; MacKenzie, E D; Nguyen, Q D; Zheng, L; Selak, M A; Roberts, D L; Dive, C; Watson, D G; Aboagye, E O; Gottlieb, E


    Cells exposed to low-oxygen conditions (hypoxia) alter their metabolism to survive. This response, although vital during development and high-altitude survival, is now known to be a major factor in the selection of cells with a transformed metabolic phenotype during tumorigenesis. It is thought that hypoxia-selected cells have increased invasive capacity and resistance to both chemo- and radiotherapies, and therefore represent an attractive target for antitumor therapy. Hypoxia inducible factors (HIFs) are responsible for the majority of gene expression changes under hypoxia, and are themselves controlled by the oxygen-sensing HIF prolyl hydroxylases (PHDs). It was previously shown that mutations in succinate dehydrogenase lead to the inactivation PHDs under normoxic conditions, which can be overcome by treatment with alpha-ketoglutarate derivatives. Given that solid tumors contain large regions of hypoxia, the reactivation of PHDs in these conditions could induce metabolic catastrophe and therefore prove an effective antitumor therapy. In this report we demonstrate that derivatized alpha-ketoglutarate can be used as a strategy for maintaining PHD activity under hypoxia. By increasing intracellular alpha-ketoglutarate and activating PHDs we trigger PHD-dependent reversal of HIF1 activation, and PHD-dependent hypoxic cell death. We also show that derivatized alpha-ketoglutarate can permeate multiple layers of cells, reducing HIF1alpha levels and its target genes in vivo.

  6. Vegetation recovery patterns assessment at landslides caused by catastrophic earthquake: a case study in central Taiwan. (United States)

    Chou, Wen-Chieh; Lin, Wen-Tzu; Lin, Chao-Yuan


    The catastrophic earthquake, 7.3 on the Richter scale, occurred on September 21, 1999 in Central Taiwan. Much of standing vegetation on slopes was eliminated and massive, scattered landslides were induced at the Jou-Jou Mountain area of the Wu-Chi basin in Nantou County. We evaluated three methods for assessing landslide hazard and vegetation recovery conditions. (1) Self-organizing map (SOM) neural network coupled with fuzzy technique was used to quickly extract the landslide. (2) The NDVI-based vegetation recovery index derived from multi-temporal SPOT satellite images was used to evaluate vegetation recovery rate in the denudation sites. (3) The spatial distribution index (SDI) based on land-cover topographic location was employed to analyze vegetation recovery patterns, including the invading, surviving and mixed patterns at the Jou-Jou Mountain area. On September 27, 1999, there were 849.20 ha of landslide area extracted using the self-organizing map and fuzzy technique combined model. After six years of natural vegetation succession, the landslide has gradually restored, and vegetation recovery rate reached up to 86%. On-site observation shows that many native pioneer plants have invaded onto the denudation sites even if disturbed by several typhoons. Two native surviving plants, Arundo formosana Hack and Pinus taiwanensis Hayata, play a vital role in natural vegetation succession in this area, especially for the sites on ridgeline and steep slopes.

  7. The Effects of Intellectual Property Rights on Access to Medicines and Catastrophic Expenditure. (United States)

    Jung, Youn; Kwon, Soonman


    Since the introduction of Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) in 1995, there has been considerable concern that poor access to essential medicines in developing countries would be exacerbated because strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) leads to monopoly of pharmaceutical markets and delayed entry of lower-cost generic drugs. However, despite extensive research and disputes regarding this issue, there are few empirical studies on the topic. In this study, we investigated the effect of IPR on access to medicines and catastrophic expenditure for medicines, using data from World Health Surveys 2002-2003. The index of patent rights developed by Ginarte and Park (1997) was used to measure the IPR protection level of each country. Estimates were adjusted for individual and country characteristics. In the results of multilevel logistic regression analyses, higher level of IPR significantly increased the likelihood of nonaccess to prescribed medicines even after controlling for individual socioeconomic status and national characteristics associated with access to medicines. This study's finding on the negative impact of IPR on access to medicines calls for the implementation of more active policy at the supra-national level to improve access in low- and middle-income countries.

  8. Mobilizing Mothers: The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Catastrophe and Environmental Activism in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Freiner


    Full Text Available The citizens’ and environmental movements of the 1960s and 70s hadgreat political success in Japan, culminating in the Special Session of the Diet in1970 that enacted 14 anti-pollution laws. These activist groups fought denials ofresponsibility on the part of industry and unresponsiveness on the part of localgovernments. Women were at the forefront of this type of activism during the 1960sand 70s, and led many of the citizens’ environmental movements during this time.More recently, during the environmental catastrophe caused by the meltdown of theFukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, women and mothers have been vocal protesters.Environmental movements have particular political salience because of the successwomen have achieved in this area both in policy change and also roles in formalpolitics. Women have consistently achieved these successes at the same time as theyperformed their roles as mothers and home managers; these roles have been usedstrategically to mobilize women with great effect, and also were central to the valueswith which the citizens’ movements defined themselves politically.

  9. Catastrophe and beauty: Ways of Dying, Zakes Mda’s novel of the transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Wyk


    Full Text Available This article explores Zakes Mda's novel, Ways of Dying (1995, as an example of transitional literature. Ways of Dying (1995 deals with the period between 1990, when negotiations for change in South Africa started, and 1994, when South Africa became a democratic country. The text portrays many recognisable aspects of life in this transitional period, but the focus is mainly on the multiple occurrences of violent death in a society where the State has lost control and legitimacy. The main character, Toloki, a professional mourner, lives through these apocalyptic times. He is, further, seeking an answer to the question of how it happened that the child of his homegirl, Noria, died at the hands of comrades. The text deals imaginatively with aspects such as the resurgence of group psychology that is a common characteristic of transitional periods with its resistance culture of mass meetings, oratory by political leaders and street processions. These are also elements of the carnivalesque. One of the interesting features of the text is its many references to dreams and its use of dream devices in its form. This article will argue that this is an integral part of a literature of a transitional period. Such a period implies the erosion of the reality principle. Reality itself in such a period takes on the features of fantasy; beauty combines with catastrophe and the apocalypse with rebirth.

  10. Catastrophic degradation of the interface of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon at high temperatures (United States)

    Pradeepkumar, Aiswarya; Mishra, Neeraj; Kermany, Atieh Ranjbar; Boeckl, John J.; Hellerstedt, Jack; Fuhrer, Michael S.; Iacopi, Francesca


    Epitaxial cubic silicon carbide on silicon is of high potential technological relevance for the integration of a wide range of applications and materials with silicon technologies, such as micro electro mechanical systems, wide-bandgap electronics, and graphene. The hetero-epitaxial system engenders mechanical stresses at least up to a GPa, pressures making it extremely challenging to maintain the integrity of the silicon carbide/silicon interface. In this work, we investigate the stability of said interface and we find that high temperature annealing leads to a loss of integrity. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy analysis shows a morphologically degraded SiC/Si interface, while mechanical stress measurements indicate considerable relaxation of the interfacial stress. From an electrical point of view, the diode behaviour of the initial p-Si/n-SiC junction is catastrophically lost due to considerable inter-diffusion of atoms and charges across the interface upon annealing. Temperature dependent transport measurements confirm a severe electrical shorting of the epitaxial silicon carbide to the underlying substrate, indicating vast predominance of the silicon carriers in lateral transport above 25 K. This finding has crucial consequences on the integration of epitaxial silicon carbide on silicon and its potential applications.

  11. A snapshot of catastrophic post-disaster health expenses post-Haiyan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Espallardo


    Full Text Available Introduction: This paper provides a snapshot of the health-care costs, out-of-pocket expenditures and available safety nets post-Typhoon Haiyan. Methods: This descriptive study used a survey and document review to report direct and indirect health-care costs and existing financial protection mechanisms used by households in two municipalities in the Philippines at one week and at seven months post-Haiyan. Results: Reported out-of-pocket health-care expenses were high immediately after the disaster and increased after seven months. The mean reported out-of-pocket expenses were higher than the reported average household income (US$ 24 to US$ 59. Discussion: The existing local and national mechanisms for health financing were promising and should be strengthened to reduce out-of-pocket expenses and protect people from catastrophic expenditures. Longer-term mechanisms are needed to ensure financial protection, especially among the poorest, beyond three months when most free services and medicines have ended. Preparedness should include prior registration of households that would ensure protection when a disaster comes.

  12. The 13 August 2010 catastrophic debris flows after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Xu


    Full Text Available From 12 to 14 August 2010, heavy rainstorms occurred in the Sichuan province in SW China in areas which were affected by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, inducing catastrophic debris flows. This disaster is named as "the 8.13 debris flows". The results of the research presented in this paper show that the 8.13 debris flows are characterized by a simultaneous occurrence, rapid-onsets, destructive impacts, and disaster chain effects. They are located along the seismic fault, because the source materials mainly originate from loose deposits of landslides which were triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake. The presence of large amounts of these loose materials on the slopes and the development of high intensity rainfall events are the main causes for the formation of these debris flows. The study of the 8.13 debris flows can provide a benchmark for the analysis of the long-term evolution of these debris flows in order to make proper engineering decisions. A flexible drainage system is proposed in this paper as a preventive measure to mitigate the increasing activity of these debris flows in the earthquake-affected area.

  13. Middle Yangtze sea-basin over Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition--Sedimental continuity and environmental catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄定华; 段怡春; 李斌; 姚凌青; 张恒; 张凡; 王君慧; 郭浩; 殷鸿福


    On the centimeter scale of lithologic change,we conduct poly-statistic analysis on the sedimentary behavior and dynamic features of the stratigraphic sequence from upper Dalong formation to lower Daye formation,which across the Permian-Triassic boundary in East Hubei.From the perspective of stochastically dynamic system,the depositional process of upper Dalong formation can be regarded as a stable Markovian process with weakly stratigraphic correlation and randomly lithologic alteration.Compared to it,the depositional process of lower Daye formation was unstable Markovian process with much closer stratigraphic correlation and ordered lithologic change.As for the replacement style of the sedimental cycle,the former was chaotic,while the latter was periodical.Otherwise,although the overall depositional process of the two formations was continuous,their dynamic characteristics were obviously different.So this P-T sedimental boundary can also be regarded as a dynamic limit.It was a kind of depositional reaction in response to a catastrophic alteration when the geological environment was in continuous change but came over a certain threshold state.

  14. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Hewitt


    Full Text Available Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et imprévisible, ainsi que sur la réponse post-catastrophe (phase d’urgence. La prise en compte d’autres facteurs apparaît nécessaire. Les héritages des histoires économique et sociale des territoires montagnards, et, plus particulièrement, les relations tissées avec les acteurs métropolitains et le reste du pays, contribuent, de manière décisive, à façonner la réalité contemporaine des montagnes. Le développement des transports, l’extraction de ressources et le tourisme, qui profitent à l’État et s’inscrivent dans la tendance internationale, peuvent paradoxalement accroître le risque pour les populations montagnardes et saper les stratégies préexistantes destinées à réduire le risque environnemental. Plus que tout, l’urbanisation rapide des montagnes en général, et de l’Himalaya en particulier, a largement contribué à intensifier les risques et à créer de nouvelles formes de vulnérabilités. La majeure partie de l’histoire actuelle des montagnes reste influencée par les déplacements contraints de population et la densification des centres urbains. Cela doit faire l’objet d’une analyse particulière. L’expansion rapide du bâti et des infrastructures, mis à part la sécurité de ces structures, engendre des risques nouveaux et complexes et détériore parallèlement le rapport habituel des hommes à leurs terres, en dégradant ainsi la capacité de résilience des individus. Dans la

  15. Proposed educational objectives for hospital-based dentists during catastrophic events and disaster response. (United States)

    Psoter, Walter J; Herman, Neal G; More, Frederick G; Park, Patricia; Robbins, Miriam; Rekow, E Dianne; Ryan, James M; Triola, Marc M; Glotzer, David


    The purpose of this project was to define education and training requirements for hospital-based dentists to efficiently and meaningfully participate in a hospital disaster response. Eight dental faculty with hospital-based training and/or military command and CBRNE (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive) expertise were recruited as an expert panel. A consensus set of recommended educational objectives for hospital-based dentists was established using the following process: 1) identify assumptions supported by all expert panelists, 2) determine current advanced dental educational training requirements, and 3) conduct additional training and literature review by various panelists and discussions with other content and systems experts. Using this three-step process, educational objectives that the development group believed necessary for hospital-based dentists to be effective in treatment or management roles in times of a catastrophic event were established. These educational objectives are categorized into five thematic areas: 1) disaster systems, 2) triage/medical assessment, 3) blast and burn injuries, 4) chemical agents, and 5) biological agents. Creation of training programs to help dentists acquire these educational objectives would benefit hospital-based dental training programs and strengthen hospital surge manpower needs. The proposed educational objectives are designed to stimulate discussion and debate among dental, medical, and public health professionals about the roles of dentists in meeting hospital surge manpower needs.

  16. Biological concentration of radionuclides in plants and animals after Chernobyl catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Hiroo; Ryo, Haruko; Nomura, Taisei [Osaka Univ., Suita (Japan). Graduate School of Medicine; Yamaguchi, Yoshiaki; Saito, Tadashi; Yeliseeva, K.G.; Piskunov, V.S.; Krupnova, E.V.; Voitovich, A.M.


    The {sup 137}Cs radioactivity and its distribution in plants (trees, mushrooms, berries, duckweed, and etc.) and animals (insects, mice, fish, and etc.) were measured in contaminated areas of southern Belarus, which was highly polluted by radionuclides as a result of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Ukraine in 1986. Gamma spectrometry of {sup 137}Cs was carried out, and a computer graphic imaging analysis was performed to visualize the distribution of radioactive nuclides in the organisms. The specimen was placed on the imaging plate, the plate was exposed for 20 h. High {sup 137}Cs radioactivity was detected in both the animals (mice, moles, dragonflies, grasshoppers, and fish) and the plants (pine trees, oak leaves, mushrooms, berries, duckweed). The {sup 137}Cs radioactivity in the organisms was proportional to the radioactivity in the soil. Assessment of its distribution showed that {sup 137}Cs was highly concentrated in muscle, but there were no substantial differences in {sup 137}Cs radioactivity according to organ or species. Computer graphic imaging analysis clearly revealed non-uniform distribution of {sup 137}Cs radioactivity in the animals and plants. In pine trees, the highest level of radioactivity was found in the bark, and it decreased toward the center of the tree. In conclusion, the authors suggest that self-cleaning of the soil will require a very long time and that the biological concentrations will persist and increase in higher animals for a long time, resulting in accumulation of both external and internal radiation exposure in animals. (K.H.)

  17. Direct observations of plasma upflows and condensation in a catastrophically cooling solar transition region loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orange, N. B.; Chesny, D. L.; Oluseyi, H. M.; Hesterly, K.; Patel, M.; Champey, P. [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States)


    Minimal observational evidence exists for fast transition region (TR) upflows in the presence of cool loops. Observations of such occurrences challenge notions of standard solar atmospheric heating models as well as their description of bright TR emission. Using the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode, we observe fast upflows (v {sub λ} ≤ –10 km s{sup –1}) over multiple TR temperatures (5.8 ≤log T ≤ 6.0) at the footpoint sites of a cool loop (log T ≤ 6.0). Prior to cool loop energizing, asymmetric flows of +5 km s{sup –1} and –60 km s{sup –1} are observed at footpoint sites. These flows, speeds, and patterns occur simultaneously with both magnetic flux cancellation (at the site of upflows only) derived from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic Magnetic Imager's line-of-sight magnetogram images, and a 30% mass influx at coronal heights. The incurred non-equilibrium structure of the cool loop leads to a catastrophic cooling event, with subsequent plasma evaporation indicating that the TR is the heating site. From the magnetic flux evolution, we conclude that magnetic reconnection between the footpoint and background field is responsible for the observed fast TR plasma upflows.

  18. Elementary cuspoid catastrophes as the models of phenomenological equations of state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander V. Tatarenko


    Full Text Available The suggested earlier approach based on the equation of state expressed as the equilibrium surface of cuspoid catastrophes has been expanded and developed. The family of equations of state with arbitrary critical point degeneracy has been obtained. In other words, the order of a partial derivative of pressure with respect to volume at the critical point has become an arbitrary assigned variable. This, in turn, has led to more realistic, as compared to the classic case, behaviour of fluid in the immediate vicinity of the critical point. The critical exponents became functions of the degree of critical point degeneracy. By suitable selection of the degree of degeneracy it is possible to obtain the preset values of critical exponents. A simple nonanalytic equation of state has been obtained. This equation allows us to describe some non-classical phenomena in the vicinity of critical point liquid-gas without using scaling. The same equation holds in the ideal gas area without using crossover. One more implication arising from the suggested approach is a singularity in the equations of state – endpoint of gas-liquid equilibrium at low pressures.

  19. Ultrafast phase transition via catastrophic phonon collapse driven by plasmonic hot-electron injection. (United States)

    Appavoo, Kannatassen; Wang, Bin; Brady, Nathaniel F; Seo, Minah; Nag, Joyeeta; Prasankumar, Rohit P; Hilton, David J; Pantelides, Sokrates T; Haglund, Richard F


    Ultrafast photoinduced phase transitions could revolutionize data-storage and telecommunications technologies by modulating signals in integrated nanocircuits at terahertz speeds. In quantum phase-changing materials (PCMs), microscopic charge, lattice, and orbital degrees of freedom interact cooperatively to modify macroscopic electrical and optical properties. Although these interactions are well documented for bulk single crystals and thin films, little is known about the ultrafast dynamics of nanostructured PCMs when interfaced to another class of materials as in this case to active plasmonic elements. Here, we demonstrate how a mesh of gold nanoparticles, acting as a plasmonic photocathode, induces an ultrafast phase transition in nanostructured vanadium dioxide (VO2) when illuminated by a spectrally resonant femtosecond laser pulse. Hot electrons created by optical excitation of the surface-plasmon resonance in the gold nanomesh are injected ballistically across the Au/VO2 interface to induce a subpicosecond phase transformation in VO2. Density functional calculations show that a critical density of injected electrons leads to a catastrophic collapse of the 6 THz phonon mode, which has been linked in different experiments to VO2 phase transition. The demonstration of subpicosecond phase transformations that are triggered by optically induced electron injection opens the possibility of designing hybrid nanostructures with unique nonequilibrium properties as a critical step for all-optical nanophotonic devices with optimizable switching thresholds.

  20. Ozone control of biological activity during Earth's history, including the KT catastrophe (United States)

    Sheldon, W. R.


    There have been brief periods since the beginning of the Cambrian some 600 m.y. ago when mass extinctions destroyed a significant fraction of living species. The most widely studied of these events is the catastrophe at the KT boundary that ended the long dominance of the dinosaurs. In addition to mass extinctions, there is another profound discontinuity in the history of Earth's biota, the explosion of life at the end of the Precambrian era which is an episode that is not explained well at all. For some 3 b.y. before the Cambrian, life had been present on Earth, but maintained a low level of activity which is an aspect of the biota that is puzzling, especially during the last two-thirds of that period. During the last 2 b.y. before the Cambrian, conditions at the Earth's surface were suitable for a burgeoning of the biota, according to most criteria: the oceans neither boiled nor were fozen solid during this time, and the atmosphere contained sufficient O for the development of animals. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mass extinctions and the lackluster behavior of the Precambrian biota share a common cause: an inadequate amount of ozone in the atmosphere.

  1. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kron


    Full Text Available Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

  2. Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model. (United States)

    Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris


    The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

  3. Demonstration of fold and cusp catastrophes in an atomic cloud reflected from an optical barrier in the presence of gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Rosenblum, Serge; Shomroni, Itay; Kaner, Roy; Arusi-Parpar, Talya; Raz, Oren; Dayan, Barak


    We experimentally demonstrate first-order (fold) and second-order (cusp) catastrophes in the density of an atomic cloud reflected from an optical barrier in the presence of gravity, and show their corresponding universal asymptotic behavior. The cusp point enables robust, field-free refocusing of an expanding atomic cloud with a wide velocity distribution. Specifically, the density attained at the cusp point in our experiment reached 65% of the peak density of the atoms in the trap prior to their release. We thereby add caustics to the various phenomena with parallels in optics that can be harnessed for manipulation of cold atoms. The structural stability of catastrophes provides inherent robustness against variations in the system's dynamics and initial conditions, making them suitable for manipulation of atoms under imperfect conditions and limited controllability.

  4. [Evidence is good for your health system: policy reform to remedy catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Mexico]. (United States)

    Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar; Bryson-Cahn, Chloe; Barofsky, Jeremy; Maguire, Rachel; Miranda, Martha; Sesma, Sergio


    Absence of financial protection in health is a recently diagnosed "disease" of health systems. The most obvious symptom is that families face economic ruin and poverty as a consequence of financing their health care. Mexico was one of the first countries to diagnose the problem, attribute it to lack of financial protection, and propose systemic therapy through health reform. In this article we assess how Mexico turned evidence on catastrophic and impoverishing health spending into a catalyst for institutional renovation through the reform that created Seguro Popular de Salud (Popular Health Insurance). We present 15-year trends on the evolution of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending, including evidence on how the situation is improving. The results of the Mexican experience suggest an important role for the organisation and financing of the health system in reducing impoverishment and protecting households during periods of individual and collective financial crisis.

  5. Evidence is good for your health system: policy reform to remedy catastrophic and impoverishing health spending in Mexico. (United States)

    Knaul, Felicia Marie; Arreola-Ornelas, Héctor; Méndez-Carniado, Oscar; Bryson-Cahn, Chloe; Barofsky, Jeremy; Maguire, Rachel; Miranda, Martha; Sesma, Sergio


    Absence of financial protection in health is a recently diagnosed "disease" of health systems. The most obvious symptom is that families face economic ruin and poverty as a consequence of financing their health care. Mexico was one of the first countries to diagnose the problem, attribute it to lack of financial protection, and propose systemic therapy through health reform. In this article we assess how Mexico turned evidence on catastrophic and impoverishing health spending into a catalyst for institutional renovation through the reform that created Seguro Popular (Popular Health Insurance). We present 15-year trends on the evolution of catastrophic and impoverishing health spending, including evidence on how the situation is improving. The results of the Mexican experience suggest an important role for the organisation and financing of the health system in reducing impoverishment and protecting households during periods of individual and collective financial crisis.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Geralda Miranda


    Full Text Available The present work aims to study the book "O quase fim do mundo", written by Pepetela. This impactful work relates the living conditions of a small group of survivors of a global catastrophe, caused by the deployment of a mass destruction weapon, created by fundamentalists. The study starts from the concept of allegory, in the way as Walter Benjamin conceives it; then, it situates the characters in time and space. The symbolic feature of the catastrophe will be debated from a dualistic view, having in mind that a collapse always allows a new beginning. First, the survivors had to understand the range of the disaster; next, they started to restructure their lives according to new patterns. The relation of the characters with the consumer goods, such as money, jewels, clothes, cars, airplanes, also received our attention, because the "values of use and exchange" of the products are totally altered.

  7. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology? (United States)

    Cirković, Milan M


    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Sergeevich Denisov


    Full Text Available The data showing an association between gout and hyperuricemia with renal failure, arterial hypertension, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and ischemic heart disease are reported. The data on the role of gout and comorbid conditions as independent risk factors of developing atherosclerosis and cardiovascular catastrophes are presented. Furthermore, the effect of drug therapy for gout on the risk of developing comorbid conditions and cardiovascularcatastrophes is discussed.

  9. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks. (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth


    Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

  10. Involvement of p53 in cell death following cell cycle arrest and mitotic catastrophe induced by rotenone


    Gonçalves, António Pedro; Máximo, Valdemar; Lima, Jorge; Keshav K Singh; Soares, Paula; Videira, Arnaldo


    In order to investigate the cell death-inducing effects of rotenone, a plant extract commonly used as a mitochondrial complex I inhibitor, we studied cancer cell lines with different genetic backgrounds. Rotenone inhibits cell growth through the induction of cell death and cell cycle arrest, associated with the development of mitotic catastrophe. The cell death inducer staurosporine potentiates the inhibition of cell growth by rotenone in a dose-dependent synergistic manner. The tumor suppres...

  11. A case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which presented an acute interstitial pneumonia-like image on chest CT scan. (United States)

    Kameda, Tomohiro; Dobashi, Hiroaki; Susaki, Kentaro; Danjo, Junichi; Nakashima, Shusaku; Shimada, Hiromi; Izumikawa, Miharu; Takeuchi, Yohei; Mitsunaka, Hiroki; Bandoh, Shuji; Imataki, Osamu; Nose, Masato; Matsunaga, Takuya


    We report the case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) complicated with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). A female patient was diagnosed with acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP) with MCTD by chest CT scan. Corticosteroid therapy was refractory for lung involvement, and she died due to acute respiratory failure. The autopsy revealed that AIP was compatible with lung involvement of CAPS. We therefore suggest that chest CT might reveal AIP-like findings in CAPS patients whose condition is complicated with pulmonary manifestations.

  12. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima; 30 Jahre Leben mit Tschernobyl, 5 Jahre Leben mit Fukushima. Gesundheitliche Folgen der Atomkatastrophen von Tschernobyl und Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claussen, Angelika; Rosen, Alex


    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  13. 基于损失分布的巨灾再保险偿付规模与定价研究%Sensitivity between Catastrophe Reinsurance Solvency and Rate Based on the Catastrophe Loss in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    康晗彬; 邢天才


    Due to high frequency and great loss of natural disasters occurred in China, catastrophic insurance and rein-surance are in great demand. This paper concentrates on the sensitivity between catastrophic reinsurance solvency and rate based on the earthquake loss and flood loss in China. For this purpose, catastrophe reinsurance rates are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and the parameter sensitivities of solvency and asset/liability ratio on the reinsurance rates are investigated. According to the acceptable rate by the market and catastrophe loss distribution in China, the simulation results show that earthquake reinsurance solvency is required to be ¥ 100 billion and flood reinsurance solvency to be ¥ 10000 billion. The great gap of both scales is mainly due to the difference of earthquake loss distribution and flood loss distribution. Based on the research in the paper, policy suggestions are offered on the implementation of catastrophe reinsurance in China.%本文从再保险人角度对我国巨灾再保险偿付规模与费率的敏感性进行了研究。为此,引入资产—负债—利率动态模型并根据我国地震、洪水损失分布,采用蒙特卡罗方法对我国巨灾再保险偿付规模与公平定价费率的敏感性进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:提高巨灾再保险的偿付规模,能够降低巨灾再保险公平定价费率,从而得到更适合市场的可行性定价,使投保人更愿意购买巨灾保险;对于市场可接受的费率,我国地震灾害再保险适宜的偿付规模在103亿元量级,而洪水灾害再保险适宜规模在105亿元量级,两者的差异主要是由我国地震、洪水损失分布不同造成的。基于上述实证研究结果并结合我国国情,提出了我国开展巨灾再保险的发展策略与政策建议。

  14. A World-System Approach to Post-Catastrophe International Relief (United States)

    Letukas, Lynn; Barnshaw, John


    As our understanding of disaster shifts from an event concentrated in time and space to a social occasion occurring across time and space, so too must our explanations of disaster shift from theories of the middle range to broader theoretical frameworks. We explore the world-system approach in an effort to understand the upper limits of theory for…

  15. Detection of increased frequency of thyroid hypoplasia in subjects irradiated in utero as the results of Chernobyl catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drozd, V.; Danilova, L.; Lushchyk, M.; Leonova, T.; Platonova, T. [International Fund Arnica, Minsk (Belarus); Grigorovich, A.; Sivuda, V. [Brest Regional Endocrinological Dispensary, Brest (Belarus); Branovan, I. [Chernobyl Project, New-York (United States); Biko, I.; Reiners, C. [Clinic and Policlinic of Nuclear Medicine, University of Wurzburg, Wursburg (Germany)


    For the 24 years passed after the Chernobyl catastrophe a significant experience in estimation of medical consequences of thyroid irradiation among Belarus patients had been accumulated. The aim of our screening of ultrasonic examination was the detection of the thyroid hypoplasia prevalence in the regions affected with radionuclide fallout. Since 2004 to 2007 thyroid ultrasound with volume estimation was performed in 3311 Belarus subjects, living on the areas of Brest region with the different contamination rate density. Examined subjects were divided in 3 groups: 1) irradiated at the age of 1 to 3 years old at the moment of Chernobyl catastrophe, 2) irradiated in utero, and 3) born after the catastrophe. It was revealed that thyroid hypoplasia was detected in 3% of group 1 (out of 1876 persons), in 5, 8% of group 2 (out of 503 persons, P<0.05) and in 1, 7% of the third group (out of 932 persons). The separation of the irradiated in utero subjects (group 2) to subgroups in dependence of the gestation period, showed the highest prevalence of thyroid hypoplasia among the irradiated in the first trimester of gestation: 7, 7% (P<0.05), in the second trimester: 5, 3%, in the third trimester: 4, 7%

  16. Catastrophic instabilities of modified DA-DC hybrid surface waves in a semi-bounded plasma system (United States)

    Lee, Myoung-Jae; Jung, Young-Dae


    We find the catastrophic instabilities and derive the growth rates for the dust-cyclotron resonance (DCR) and dust-rotation resonance (DRR) modes of the modified dust-acoustic and dust-cyclotron (DA-DC) hybrid surface waves propagating at the plasma-vacuum interface where the plasma is semi-bounded and composed of electrons and rotating dust grains. The effects of magnetic field and dust rotation frequency on the DCR- and DDR-modes are also investigated. We find that the dust rotation frequency enhances the growth rate of DCR-mode and the effect of dust rotation on this resonance mode decreases with an increase of the wave number. We also find that an increase of magnetic field strength enhances the DCR growth rate, especially, for the short wavelength regime. In the case of DRR-mode, the growth rate is found to be decreased less sensitively with an increase of the wave number compared with the case of DCR, but much significantly enhanced by an increase of dust rotation frequency. The DRR growth rate also decreases with an increase of the magnetic field strength, especially in the long wavelength regime. Interestingly, we find that catastrophic instabilities occur for both DCR- and DRR-modes of the modified DA-DC hybrid surface waves when the rotational frequency is close to the dust-cyclotron frequency. Both modes can also be excited catastrophically due to the cooperative interaction between the DCR-mode and the DRR-mode.

  17. Formation of bi-lobed shapes by sub-catastrophic collisions. A late origin of comet 67P's structure (United States)

    Jutzi, M.; Benz, W.


    Context. The origin of the particular shape of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a topic of active research. How and when it acquired its peculiar characteristics has distinct implications on the origin of the solar system and its dynamics. Aims: We investigate how shapes such as that of comet 67P can result from a new type of low-energy, sub-catastrophic impact involving elongated, rotating bodies. We focus on parameters potentially leading to bi-lobed structures. We also estimate the probability of such structures surviving subsequent impacts. Methods: We used a smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) shock physics code to model the impacts, the subsequent re-accumulation of material and the reconfiguration into a stable final shape. The energy increase as well as the degree of compaction of the resulting bodies were tracked in the simulations. Results: Our modelling results suggest that the formation of bi-lobed structures like 67P is a natural outcome of the low-energy, sub-catastrophic collisions considered here. Conclusions: Sub-catastrophic impacts have the potential to alter the shape of a small body significantly, without leading to major heating or compaction. The currently observed shapes of cometary nuclei, such as 67P, may be a result of such a major shape forming impact.

  18. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)


    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  19. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.


    precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

  20. Introducing School Children in Nigeria to SPACE Technology As a Tool for Mitigation of National Catastrophes (United States)

    Alabi, O.


    The zonal workshops organized by the space education outreach unit of the African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education utilized recent catastrophic events in Nigeria to attract pre-collegiate youths to space science and technology (SST). About 200 school children, aged between 10 and 18 years participated in the program which was coordinated at 2 different geopolitical zones in Nigeria in 2014. The 2-day event was packed with a lot of fun-filled, hands-on educational activities demonstrating the use of outer space to address prevailing socio-economic problems in the nation. The students were introduced to the Nigerian Earth Observation Satellites, and learned why these satellites cannot be used to track the school girls kidnapped by the terrorist group in the northern part of the country. They were also introduced to other types of satellites and participated in activities on the applications of TRMM satellite data to monitor flood events in Nigeria. The Global Positioning System (GPS) technology was introduced as a navigational tool to curb criminal activities in the country and participants used the hand-held GPS unit for geocaching. The program culminated in the launching of space clubs in all the participating schools and a teacher from each school received resource materials on DVD to nurture the space club. To assess the impact of the workshop on the knowledge level of the participants in space science, quiz competitions were administered and the average score of the students was above 70%. The enthusiasm displayed by the students, coupled with the brilliant performance in the evaluation tests, indicated that this method of informal education, that linked science to the alleviation of national disasters is viable, not only for stimulating the interest of Nigerian pre-collegiate youths in SST, but also to inspire the young learners and develop their interest in the Sciences, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM).