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Sample records for catastrophe theory

  1. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed.......It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  2. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  3. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  4. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  5. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  6. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  7. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kei Ito.

    1989-08-01

    Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

  9. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  10. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  11. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  12. Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

  13. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  14. Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alesso, H.P.

    1979-01-01

    Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

  15. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.E. García-Ramos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  16. Application of Bifurcation and Catastrophe Theories to Near Stall Flight Mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    subjective use of the theorem can be found in [32]. This has led to some considerable criticism of the theory itself as a result of its inability to give...Function, 4 (x,c) for CUBo ~s values of 02 with Cl=-3 Figure 4.3 brings the concepts discussed above together in a three dimensional diagram in the...points on the roll rate catastrophe map discussed in the next section. Figures 5.2 through 5.5 follow this page. 97 0 Arraft A (DR=Ot DE -.-5 deg*) S

  17. Stability of interbed for salt cavern gas storage in solution mining considering cusp displacement catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Yu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cusp displacement catastrophe theory can be introduced to propose a new method about instability failure of the interbed for gas storage cavern in bedded salt in solution mining. We can calculate initial fracture drawing pace of this interbed to obtain 2D and 3D gas storage shapes at this time. Moreover, Stability evaluation of strength reduction finite element method (FEM based on this catastrophe theory can used to evaluate this interbed stability after initial fracture. A specific example is simulated to obtain the influence of the interbed depth, cavern internal pressure, and cavern building time on stability safety factor (SSF. The results indicate: the value of SSF will be lower with the increase of cavern building time in solution mining and the increase of interbed depth and also this value remains a rise with the increase of cavern internal pressure Especially, we can conclude that the second-fracture of the interbed may take place when this pressure is lower than 6 MPa or after 6 days later of the interbed after initial fracture. According to above analysis, some effective measures, namely elevating the tube up to the top of the interbed, or changing the circulation of in-and-out lines, can be introduced to avoid the negative effects when the second-fracture of the interbed may occur.

  18. Electron-density critical points analysis and catastrophe theory to forecast structure instability in periodic solids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merli, Marcello; Pavese, Alessandro

    2018-03-01

    The critical points analysis of electron density, i.e. ρ(x), from ab initio calculations is used in combination with the catastrophe theory to show a correlation between ρ(x) topology and the appearance of instability that may lead to transformations of crystal structures, as a function of pressure/temperature. In particular, this study focuses on the evolution of coalescing non-degenerate critical points, i.e. such that ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and λ 1 , λ 2 , λ 3 ≠ 0 [λ being the eigenvalues of the Hessian of ρ(x) at x c ], towards degenerate critical points, i.e. ∇ρ(x c ) = 0 and at least one λ equal to zero. The catastrophe theory formalism provides a mathematical tool to model ρ(x) in the neighbourhood of x c and allows one to rationalize the occurrence of instability in terms of electron-density topology and Gibbs energy. The phase/state transitions that TiO 2 (rutile structure), MgO (periclase structure) and Al 2 O 3 (corundum structure) undergo because of pressure and/or temperature are here discussed. An agreement of 3-5% is observed between the theoretical model and experimental pressure/temperature of transformation.

  19. Conceptual and Methodological Considerations in Sport Anxiety Research: From the Inverted-U Hypothesis to Catastrophe Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krane, Vikki

    1992-01-01

    Sport psychology researchers study the relationship between anxiety and athletic performance. The paper reviews conceptual and methodological issues in the research, examining the inverted-U hypothesis, multidimensional anxiety theory, and catastrophe theory. Research suggests moving beyond the inverted-U and investigating more complete theories…

  20. Understanding reaction mechanisms in organic chemistry from catastrophe theory applied to the electron localization function topology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polo, Victor; Andres, Juan; Berski, Slawomir; Domingo, Luis R; Silvi, Bernard

    2008-08-07

    Thom's catastrophe theory applied to the evolution of the topology of the electron localization function (ELF) gradient field constitutes a way to rationalize the reorganization of electron pairing and a powerful tool for the unambiguous determination of the molecular mechanisms of a given chemical reaction. The identification of the turning points connecting the ELF structural stability domains along the reaction pathway allows a rigorous characterization of the sequence of electron pair rearrangements taking place during a chemical transformation, such as multiple bond forming/breaking processes, ring closure processes, creation/annihilation of lone pairs, transformations of C-C multiple bonds into single ones. The reaction mechanism of some relevant organic reactions: Diels-Alder, 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition and Cope rearrangement are reviewed to illustrate the potential of the present approach.

  1. Risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in chemical industrial parks based on catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu; Song, Guobao; Yang, Fenglin; Zhang, Shushen; Zhang, Yun; Liu, Zhenyu

    2012-12-03

    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP, China. According to the principle of equal distribution function, the chemical enterprise risk level was divided into the following five levels: 1.0 (very safe), 0.8 (safe), 0.6 (generally recognized as safe, GRAS), 0.4 (unsafe), 0.2 (very unsafe). The results revealed five enterprises (50%) with an unsafe risk level, and another five enterprises (50%) at the generally recognized as safe risk level. This method solves the multi-objective evaluation and decision-making problem. Additionally, this method involves simple calculations and provides an effective technique for risk assessment and hierarchical risk management of enterprises in CIPs.

  2. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  3. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  4. Research on the Selection Strategy of Green Building Parts Supplier Based on the Catastrophe Theory and Kent Index Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Luo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the green building and housing industrialization are two mainstream directions in the real estate industry. The production of green building parts which combines green building and housing industrialization, two concepts, is to be vigorously developed. The key of quality assurance in the assembly project is choosing reliable and proper green building parts suppliers. This paper analyzes the inherent requirements of the green building, combined with the characteristics of the housing industrialization, and puts forward an evaluation index system of supplier selection for green building parts, which includes product index, enterprise index, green development index, and cooperation ability index. To reduce the influence of subjective factors, the improved method which merges Kent index method and catastrophe theory is applied to the green building parts supplier selection and evaluation. This paper takes the selection of the unit bathroom suppliers as an example, uses the improved model to calculate and analyze the data of each supplier, and finally selects the optimal supplier. With combination of the Kent index and the catastrophe theory, the result shows that it can effectively reduce the subjectivity of the evaluation and provide a basis for the selection of the green building parts suppliers.

  5. A comparison between index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods for mapping groundwater potential in an arid region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abadi, Alaa M; Shahid, Shamsuddin

    2015-09-01

    In this study, index of entropy and catastrophe theory methods were used for demarcating groundwater potential in an arid region using weighted linear combination techniques in geographical information system (GIS) environment. A case study from Badra area in the eastern part of central of Iraq was analyzed and discussed. Six factors believed to have influence on groundwater occurrence namely elevation, slope, aquifer transmissivity and storativity, soil, and distance to fault were prepared as raster thematic layers to facility integration into GIS environment. The factors were chosen based on the availability of data and local conditions of the study area. Both techniques were used for computing weights and assigning ranks vital for applying weighted linear combination approach. The results of application of both modes indicated that the most influential groundwater occurrence factors were slope and elevation. The other factors have relatively smaller values of weights implying that these factors have a minor role in groundwater occurrence conditions. The groundwater potential index (GPI) values for both models were classified using natural break classification scheme into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. For validation of generated GPI, the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used. According to the obtained area under the curve, the catastrophe model with 78 % prediction accuracy was found to perform better than entropy model with 77 % prediction accuracy. The overall results indicated that both models have good capability for predicting groundwater potential zones.

  6. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  7. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man.......The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  8. Olefin epoxidation by molybdenum peroxo compound: molecular mechanism characterized by the electron localization function and catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berski, Slawomir; Sensato, Fabrício R; Polo, Victor; Andrés, Juan; Safont, V S

    2011-02-03

    The oxygen atom transfer reaction from the Mimoun-type complex MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) to ethylene C(2)H(4) affording oxirane C(2)H(4)O has been investigated within the framework of the Bonding Evolution Theory in which the corresponding molecular mechanism is characterized by the topological analysis of the electron localization function (ELF) and Thom's catastrophe theory (CT). Topological analysis of ELF and electron density analysis reveals that all Mo-O bonds in MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) and MoO(2)(η(2)-O(2))OPH(3) belong to closed-shell type interactions though negative values of total energy densities E(e)(r(BCP)) imply some covalent contribution. The peroxo O(i)-O(j) bonds are characterized as charge-shift or protocovalent species in which pairs of monosynaptic basins V(3)(O(i)), V(3)(O(j)) with a small electron population of ~0.25e each, are localized between core basins C(O(i)), C(O(j)). The oxygen transfer reaction from molybdenum diperoxo complex MoO(η(2)-O(2))(2)OPH(3) to C(2)H(4) system can be described by the following consecutive chemical events: (a) protocovalent peroxo O(2)-O(1) bond breaking, (b) reduction of the double C(1)=C(2) bond to single C(1)-C(2) bond in ethylene, (c) displacement of oxygen O(1) with two nonbonding basins, V(i=1,2)(O(1)), (d) increase of a number of the nonbonding basins to three (V(i=1,2,4)(O(1))); (e) reorganization and reduction in the number of nonbonding basis to two basins (V(i=1,4)(O(1))) resembling the ELF-topology of the nonbonding electron density in oxirane, (e) formation of the first O(1)-C(2) bond in oxirane, (f) C(2)-O(1)-C(2) ring closure, (g) formation of singular nonbonding basin V(O(2)) in new Mo=O(2) bond. The oxygen atom is transferred as an anionic moiety carrying a rather small electronic charge ranging from 0.5 to 0.7e.

  9. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... increased DNA replication stress....

  10. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    of the Nakba in 2008 and clashes between the police and young Palestinians in 2006, the article demonstrates how Palestinians in Denmark seek to reverse the reverse myth of 1948 by seizing contemporary catastrophes to enact not only past and present Nakbas, but also potential futures. The article concludes...

  11. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  12. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  13. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  14. Investigation of shape phase transition in the U(5) ↔ SO(6) transitional region by catastrophe theory and critical exponents of some quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fathi, H.; Ghadami, M.; Sabri, H.; Fouladi, N.; Jafarizadeh, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we have analyzed the critical behavior of even–even Ru and Pd isotopes between U(5) and SO(6) limits of interacting boson model via Catastrophe Theory in combination with a coherent state formalism to generate energy surfaces. The parameters of the Hamiltonian are determined via least-square fitting to the experimental data for different Ru and Pd isotopes. Our results suggest a second-order phase transition in these isotopic chains and propose the best candidates for E(5) critical symmetry. Also, the analogy between the critical exponents of ground state quantum phase transition and Landau values for the critical exponents of thermodynamic phase transitions are described. (author)

  15. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  16. Models for leprosy. An appraisal of graphic representations of the "spectrum" concept as models and a suggestion for a catastrophe theory model for leprosy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, H

    1984-09-01

    Graphic representations of the spectrum concept of leprosy are examined in some detail as models for this disease. This reveals that this concept is somewhat inadequate and that the spectrum metaphor may itself be inappropriate because, by its very linearity of logic, it may not be able to depict the nonlinear behavior of leprosy properly. The assumptions underlying this concept and their logical consequences, brought out by the graphic representations, include an invariable relation between CMI and BI, identity of one type of leprosy with one specific level of CMI, a fixed sequence of types, and the consequent impossibility of skipping the sequence. However, our experience with leprosy does not bear out these assumptions. Further, development and progress of leprosy from a normal (nonleprous) state cannot be represented in these models. A search for alternative conceptual models therefore appears reasonable and even necessary. The catastrophe theory (a branch of topology in mathematics) describes a number of models for explaining how continuous causes could produce sudden or discontinuous changes. Of the various catastrophe theory models available, the relatively simple "cusp" model appears capable of application to leprosy. This model, as applied here, requires two control factors (identified tentatively as the amount of dead bacilli and the amount of living bacilli or their indicators) and one pattern of behavior, identified as progress towards limited or extensive disease. This model suggests under what conditions leprosy will change from one type to another and whether that will happen gradually or suddenly. It also suggests that for certain values of control factors the disease may manifest in one of two forms of borderline leprosy, and that lesions very similar to start with can progress to quite different states under similar conditions of change. The behavior of leprosy agrees more or less with that suggested by this model. The cusp model thus seems to: a

  17. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  18. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  19. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  20. A Catastrophe in Quantum Mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Ignatovich, V K

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed.

  1. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  2. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  3. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  4. Clues from stellar catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rimoldi, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    This thesis uses catastrophic stellar events (supernovae and stellar collisions) to investigate different aspects of their environment. The first part of the thesis examines what happens to supernova remnants near supermassive black holes like the one in the Milky Way Galaxy. To do so, a technique

  5. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  6. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  7. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  8. Vivre la catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Favreau, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Le mot catastrophe a ceci d’intéressant et de pratique que l’on peut l’employer pour désigner un ensemble de situations hétéroclites, ayant pour point commun un caractère dit sensationnel, médiatiquement porteur et pour autant sans commune mesure. Une catastrophe pour les uns peut ne pas en être une pour les autres. On a ainsi pu lire dans la presse que le réchauffement climatique met en péril des populations entières que l’on nomme déjà les futurs « réfugiés climatiques » en rendant leur mil...

  9. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  10. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  11. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  12. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  14. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  15. Modeling Workplace Bullying Behaviors Using Catastrophe Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Escartín Solanelles, Jordi; Ceja, Lucía; Navarro Cid, José; Zapf, D.

    2013-01-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the prese...

  16. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2005-01-01

    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  17. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  18. [Abdominal catastrophe--surgeon's view].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyhnánek, F

    2010-07-01

    Abdominal catastrophe is a serious clinical condition, usually being a complication arising during treatment of intraabdominal nontraumatic disorders or abdominal injuries. Most commonly, inflamation- secondary peritonitis, is concerned. Abdominal catastrophe also includes secondary signs of sepsis, abdominal compartment syndrome and enterocutaneous fistules. Most septic abdominal disorders which show signs of abdominal catastrophy, require surgical intervention and reinterventions--planned or "on demand" laparotomies. During the postoperative period, the patient requires intensive care management, including steps taken to stabilize his/hers condition, management of sepsis and metabolic and nutritional support measures, as well as adequate indication for reoperations. New technologies aimed at prevention of complications in laparostomies and to improve conditions for final laparotomy closure are used in phase procedures for surgical management of intraabdominal infections. Despite the new technologies, abdominal catastrophe has higher morbidity and lethality risk rates.

  19. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  20. CATASTROPHIC ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID SYNDROME IN LEPROSY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Vaibhav Chewoolkar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to mesenteric venous thrombosis as a part of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and later on succumbed. We thereby wish to highlight the need for early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of this potentially fatal condition in patients with infections.

  1. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  2. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  3. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  4. Catastrophic fires in Russian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. I. Sukhinin; D. J. McRae; B. J. Stocks; S. G. Conard; WeiMin Hao; A. J. Soja; D. Cahoon

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the contribution of catastrophic fires to the total burned area and the amount of tree mortality in Russia since the 1970’s. Such fires occurred in the central regions of European Russia (1972, 1976, 1989, 2002, 2010), Khabarovsk krai (1976, 1988, 1998), Amur region (1997-2002), Republics of Yakutia and Tuva (2002), Magadan and Kamchatka oblast (1984, 2001...

  5. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  6. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

  7. A thermal catastrophe in a resonantly heated coronal loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, P.C.H.; Kuperus, M.

    1983-01-01

    A theory for the thermal stability of hot coronal loops is presented, which is based on the resonant electrodynamic heating theory of Ionson (1982) and the evaporation/condensation scenario of Krall and Antiochos (1980). The theory predicts that gradual changes in the length of a loop or in its magnetic field strength can trigger catastrophic changes in the X-ray visibility of the loop, without the need for a change in the magnetic field topology. A natural explanation is thereby given for the observations of X-ray brightenings in loops and loop evacuations with coronal rain. (Auth.)

  8. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  9. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  10. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  11. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  12. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  13. Crise, catastrophe, risque et adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Yiou , Pascal; Jézéquel , Aglae

    2017-01-01

    International audience; L'histoire de la Terre est jalonnée de crises et de catastrophes environnementales, qui ont conduit à la disparition d'espèces et de sociétés, et parfois à l'émergence de nouveaux systèmes. Nous ne reviendrons pas sur ces événements géologiques ou historiques, mais nous concentrons sur le changement climatique en cours et ses événements extrêmes. Du fait de l'expansion démographique, la surface habitable de la Terre est de plus en plus densément peuplée, ce qui augment...

  14. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  15. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  16. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  17. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  18. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

  19. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  20. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  1. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  2. Cosmic Impacts, Cosmic Catastrophes. Part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    Examined is the science of catastrophism and its role in planetary and earth science. The effects of impacts on earth with extraterrestrial origins are discussed. Perspectives on the age and dynamics of the earth's crust are presented. (CW)

  3. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  4. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  5. Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonggang Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

  6. Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clune, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

  7. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed.

  8. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  9. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  10. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  11. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  12. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  13. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S; de Queiroz, Amilcar R

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N-particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N-body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  14. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  15. Catastrophe in plasma focus evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikuta, Kazunari.

    1984-07-01

    A theory of generating strong electric field in a dense plasma column in plasma focus is established by applying the formula for the electron thermal conductivity in destroyed magnetic surfaces like those in tokamaks. The origin of the electric field may be from abrupt rise of plasma resistivity when the irregularity of magnetic field is weak. However, the electric field can be from the inductive origin in case the irregularity attains a certain level. Both origin should be mixed up depending on the magnitude of the irregularity. (author)

  16. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...... of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...

  17. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  18. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  20. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic

  1. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  2. Preventing catastrophes in spatially extended systems through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Further, we outline our analysis on the possible mechanisms behind the occurrence of catastrophes and how the ... The equation has also been utilized in seismology to model the two plates in a geological fault [4]. .... now the central results obtained from our extensive numerical simulations [7]. 3. Spatiotemporal patterns in ...

  3. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  4. What Is the Price of Catastrophic Wildfire?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; Thomas P. Holmes

    2001-01-01

    We modeled and analyzed the economic impacts of the six weeks of large, catastrophic wild-fires in northeastern Florida in June and July 1998, among Florida's most devastating in recent history. The result of the unusually strong El Níño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1998, the Florida wildfires produced economic impacts of at least $600 million, similar in...

  5. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    ... Management Agency, United States Department of Agriculture, Beacon Facility, Stop 0812, Room 421, P.O. Box... 12866 The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has determined that this rule is not-significant for the... is definite, and whether ACRSI will be implemented before the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  6. Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2018-02-09

    The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

  7. Personality and Temperament Correlates of Pain Catastrophizing in Young Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Anja; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of…

  8. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  9. Market Dynamics and Optimal Timber Salvage After a Natural Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2004-01-01

    Forest-based natural catastrophes are regular features of timber production in the United States, especially from hurricanes, fires, and insect and disease outbreaks. These catastrophes affect timber prices and result in economic transfers. We develop a model of timber market dynamics after such a catastrophe that shows how timber salvage affects the welfare of...

  10. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  11. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  12. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  13. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  14. Synchronizing Federal Operational Planning for National Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    overwhelm human capacity. A developing genre is developing in the literature that advocates the shift from interagency planning to multi-sector...catastrophe absorbed these resources as if there was no end; everyone watched the response effort on TV and witnessed the level of confusion and...in Katrina. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 38 (4), 692–714. Bongar, B., Brown, L. M., Beutler, L. E., Breckenridge, J. N., & Zimbardo, P. G

  15. Catastrophe risks: the case of seisms

    OpenAIRE

    Kast, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Catastrophes and risks have had a great influence on the evolution of human development. We analyze behaviors in front of risks, then we consider some basic principles that have guided private and public behaviors. Managing risks has become a specialty for finance and insurance, but they are not the only institutions that allow to confront them. We conclude on an example of how public funds, private insurance and reinsurance companies can work together and use financial markets...

  16. Catastrophe Theory: State of the Art and Potential Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-31

    whale and a great white shark in such a way that one would classify the former as a mammal along with a bat, a human, and a giraffe , and the latter...following a deterministic evolution , behavioral sciences deal with much less precise data having a different sort of causal basis. These...the upper sheet of M disappears and the observed state x’ jumps discontinuously to the lower sheet of M for its subsequent evolution

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  18. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  19. Catastrophizing and poor sleep quality in early adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noone, Deirdre M; Willis, Thomas A; Cox, Jenny; Harkness, Frances; Ogilvie, Jayne; Forbes, Erika; Sterr, Annette; Gregory, Alice M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness has been investigated in adults and children, but little is known about adolescents. This article aimed to (a) investigate whether early adolescent girls catastrophized about consequences of sleeplessness, (b) describe topics in catastrophizing sequences, (c) examine the association between sleep quality and catastrophizing, and (d) assess whether puberty moderated this association. Girls (n = 115) between 11 and 12 years old completed adapted versions of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Pubertal Developmental Scale, and the Catastrophizing Interview. Twenty-four (21%) participants produced catastrophizing sequences, including concerns about school and mood. Sleep quality was associated with catastrophizing (β = 0.19, p = .042); however, puberty did not moderate this association (β = 0.15, p = .126). Findings highlight the importance of sleep-related cognitions in adolescent girls.

  20. Catastrophic winter storms. An escalating problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Winter storms are a major weather problem in the USA and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms, each causing more than $1 million in damages, occurred during 1949-2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous USA, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of 9 storms, and 1 year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing synoptic weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation's 202 storms during 1949-2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation's storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.

  1. Food Safety Risk Assessment in Whole Food Supply Chain Based on Catastrophe Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shangmei Zhao; Xuemei Yang

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a food safety-risk assessment model for the whole food supply chain. In order to assess whole risk of food safety, this study designed the evaluation index system from the perspective of the food chain, which considered agricultural production, food processing and food consumption three stages. Based on catastrophe model and stability theory, the risk of agricultural production, food processing and food consumption is evaluated. This study got the va...

  2. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  3. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals : Stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that

  4. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  5. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  6. Iranian Household Financial Protection against Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadam, M Nekoei; Banshi, M; Javar, M Akbari; Amiresmaili, M; Ganjavi, S

    2012-01-01

    Background: Protecting households against financial risks is one of objectives of any health system. In this regard, Iran’s fourth five year developmental plan act in its 90th article, articulated decreasing household’s exposure to catastrophic health expenditure to one percent. Hence, this study aimed to measure percentage of Iranian households exposed to catastrophic health expenditures and to explore its determinants. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical study was carried out retrospectively. Households whose financial contributions to the health system exceeded 40% of disposable income were considered as exposed to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare expenditures were examined by logistic regression and chi-square test. Results: Of 39,088 households, 80 were excluded due to absence of food expenditures. 2.8% of households were exposed to catastrophic health expenditures. Influential factors on catastrophic healthcare were utilizing ambulatory, hospital, and drug addiction cessation services as well as consuming pharmaceuticals. Socioeconomics characteristics such as health insurance coverage, household size, and economic status were other determinants of exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Conclusion: Iranian health system has not achieved the objective of reducing catastrophic healthcare expenditure to one percent. Inefficient health insurance coverage, different fee schedules practiced by private and public providers, failure of referral system are considered as probable barriers toward decreasing households’ exposure to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. PMID:23193508

  7. Efficient Word Reading: Automaticity of Print-Related Skills Indexed by Rapid Automatized Naming through Cusp-Catastrophe Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sideridis, Georgios D.; Simos, Panagiotis; Mouzaki, Angeliki; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    The study explored the moderating role of rapid automatized naming (RAN) in reading achievement through a cusp-catastrophe model grounded on nonlinear dynamic systems theory. Data were obtained from a community sample of 496 second through fourth graders who were followed longitudinally over 2 years and split into 2 random subsamples (validation…

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: The current management approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-04-01

    The current recommendation for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) management is the standard triple therapy with anticoagulation (AC), glucocorticoids (GCs), plasma exchange (PE), and/or intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs). Of note, only AC has a significant effect on the prognosis of these patients. However, from the experimental or basic point of view, there is only indirect evidence to advocate the use of these immunomodulatory therapies (GC, PE, and IVIG) in CAPS. Recently, there have been reports of severe or refractory CAPS patients treated with the monoclonal antibodies rituximab and eculizumab. The first blocks CD20, a surface protein expressed on the cytoplasmic membrane of B cells, and decreases the generation of pathogenic autoantibodies such as antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. The second binds with high affinity to C5 complement protein, inhibiting its cleavage and thus preventing the generation of C5b-C9 complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    individual tubulin dimers, an ignored. In this cap model, GTP hydrolysis is assumed to be stochastic and uncoupled to microtubule growth. Different rates of hydrolysis are assumed for GTP in the cap's interior and for GTP at its boundary with hydrolyzed parts of the microtubule. Expectation values...... and probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... of microtubule growth before dilution. The GTP content of microtubules is found and its rare of hydrolysis is determined under the circumstances created in an experiment designed to measure this GTP content. It is concluded that this experiment's failure to register any GTP content is consistent with the model...

  10. The asteroids as outcomes of catastrophic collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farinella, P. (Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera, Merate, Italy); Paolicchi, P.

    1982-12-01

    The role of catastrophic collisions in the evoloution of the asteroids is discussed in detail, employing extrapolations of experimental results on the outcome of high velocity-impacts. The probability of impacts with a given projectile-to-target mass ratio for asteroids of different sizes is derived, taking into account different mass distributions of the asteroid population at the beginning of the collision process. The extrapolations show that collisional breakup against solid-state cohesions must be a widespread process for asteroids. The influence of self-gravitation and transfer of angular momentum during collision is shown to depend strongly on the traget size, resulting in a variety of possible outcomes in the intermediate size range. Comparason of the theoretical results with observations of asteroid rotations and shapes yields favorable results.

  11. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso

    2016-12-01

    To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. Descrever a magnitude do gasto catastrófico em medicamentos no Brasil segundo região, tamanho das famílias e composição familiar em termos de moradores em situação de dependência. Utilizados dados de inqu

  12. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  13. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle

  14. Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bixenstine, Paul J; Shore, Andrew D; Mehtsun, Winta T; Ibrahim, Andrew M; Freischlag, Julie A; Makary, Martin A

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic medical malpractice payouts, $1 million or greater, greatly influence physicians' practice, hospital policy, and discussions of healthcare reform. However, little is known about the specific characteristics and overall cost burden of these payouts. We reviewed all paid malpractice claims nationwide using the National Practitioner Data Bank over a 7-year period (2004-2010) and used multivariate regression to identify risk factors for catastrophic and increased overall payouts. Claims with catastrophic payouts represented 7.9% (6,130/77,621) of all paid claims. Factors most associated with catastrophic payouts were patient age less than 1 year; quadriplegia, brain damage, or lifelong care; and anesthesia allegation group. Compared with court judgments, settlement was associated with decreased odds of a catastrophic payout (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.42) and lower estimated average payouts ($124,863; 95% CI, $101,509-144,992). A physician's years in practice and previous paid claims history had no effect on the odds of a catastrophic payout. Catastrophic payouts averaged $1.4 billion per year or 0.05% of the National Health Expenditures. Preventing catastrophic malpractice payouts should be only one aspect of comprehensive patient safety and quality improvement strategies. Future studies should evaluate the benefits of targeted interventions based on specific patient safety event characteristics. © 2013 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  15. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: magnitude, distribution and determinants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sosa-Manzano, Carlos Lino; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio

    2005-01-01

    To describe the magnitude, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico. The information source was the National Performance Assessment Survey and the methodology, the one developed by the World Health Organization for assessing fair financing. Households with catastrophic expenditures were defined as those with health expenditures over 30% of their ability to pay. Multivariate analysis by logistic and linear regression were used to identify the determinants of catastrophic expenditures. A total of 3.8% of the households incurred in catastrophic health expenditures. There were huge differences by state. The uninsured, poor, and rural households showed a higher impoverishment risk. Sixty percent of the catastrophic expenditures were attributable to outpatient care and medication. A 10% increase of insured households could result in a 9.6% decrease in catastrophic expenditures. Disability, adults 60 years of age and older, and pregnancy increased the probability of catastrophic expenditures. The insurance of older adults, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities could reduce catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico.

  16. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  17. Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

    KAUST Repository

    Albar, Arwa

    2016-11-14

    First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  18. A cusp catastrophe model of mid-long-term landslide evolution over low latitude highlands of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yun; Cao, Jie; Hu, Jinming; Dai, Zhicheng

    2013-04-01

    Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution. According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution across a low-latitude highland area in China is obtained with the least squares method. Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity. Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls the time when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs. During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995, and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996. Since then, there have been frequent landslides in the low-latitude highland, with greater intensity. All these factors provide a scientific basis for formulating a contingency plan regarding landslide disasters.

  19. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  20. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  1. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  2. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  3. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  4. [Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aracena-Genao, Belkis; González-Robledo, María Cecilia; González-Robledo, Luz María; Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Nigenda-López, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    To document the status of operational and managerial processes of the Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses (FPGC), as well as to describe its evolution, and to explore the relationship between covered diseases and the Mexican health profile. This is a joint management study, which included a qualitative and a quantitative phase. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants. We also analyzed the records of CNPSS, the hospital discharge and mortality data bases. Fifty two percent of the states take twice as long to report and validate the cases. From 2004-2009 the FPGC increased its coverage from 6 to 49 interventions, that means a spending increase of 2 306.4% in nominal terms and 1 659.3% in real terms. The HIV/AIDS was the intervention prioritized with 39.3% and Mexico City had the highest proportion of expenditure (25.1%). A few diseases included in the health profile are covered by the FPGC. The review of the inclusion criteria of diseases is urgent, so as to cover diseases of epidemiological importance.

  5. Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Li, Yangfan; Kappas, Martin; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell

    2018-02-08

    Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes ("Less resilient" or "More resilient") were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in "Less resilient" system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  7. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  8. An Update on Football Deaths and Catastrophic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.; Blyth, Carl S.

    1986-01-01

    The latest figures (1985) indicate a continued decline in football deaths and catastrophic injuries, which is credited to a ban on spearing and to a helmet standard. Guidelines for prevention of fatalities and injuries are listed. (Author/MT)

  9. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  10. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Liang, Xiangzhou

    2017-05-09

    This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε ₀ exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of -1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  11. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  12. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Koppel, van de J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to

  13. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  14. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  15. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky; Dmitry S. Lukin; Sergey V. Rogachev

    2015-01-01

    The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of spec...

  16. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  17. Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-30

    22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division...such15,16. The physical processes involved in the onset of flux-rope eruption have attracted renewed interest17–19. Kliem and Török18 proposed the so-called

  18. Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

    2016-12-01

    Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  20. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  1. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  2. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  3. Catastrophic failure of polymer melts during extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik K.

    2013-01-01

    Numerical flow modeling has been applied to study the break of monodisperse polymer melts during extension. These continuum mechanical based computations are within the ideas of the microstructural ’interchain pressure’ theory. Calculated breaks, a result of small initial sample imperfections, ag...

  4. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  5. Targeting the Mitotic Catastrophe Signaling Pathway in Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mc Gee, Margaret M.

    2015-01-01

    Mitotic catastrophe, as defined in 2012 by the International Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death, is a bona fide intrinsic oncosuppressive mechanism that senses mitotic failure and responds by driving a cell to an irreversible antiproliferative fate of death or senescence. Thus, failed mitotic catastrophe can promote the unrestrained growth of defective cells, thereby representing a major gateway to tumour development. Furthermore, the activation of mitotic catastrophe offers significant therapeutic advantage which has been exploited in the action of conventional and targeted anticancer agents. Yet, despite its importance in tumour prevention and treatment, the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe is not well understood. A better understanding of the signals that determine cell fate following failed or defective mitosis will reveal new opportunities to selectively target and enhance the programme for therapeutic benefit and reveal biomarkers to predict patient response. This review is focused on the molecular mechanism of mitotic catastrophe induction and signalling and highlights current strategies to exploit the process in cancer therapy. PMID:26491220

  6. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  7. Catastrophic Senescence of the Pacific Salmon Without Mutation-Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    We derive catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon from an aging model which was recently proposed by Stauffer. The model is based on the postulates of a minimum reproduction age and a maximal genetic lifespan. It allows for self-organization of a typical age of first reproduction and a typical age of death. Our Monte Carlo simulations of the population dynamics show that the model leads to catastrophic senescence for semelparous reproduction as it occurs in the case of salmon, to a more gradually increase of senescence for iteroparous reproduction.

  8. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  9. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  10. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  11. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  12. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roda, M.; Kleinhans, M.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/217675123; Zegers, T.E.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/155390562; Oosthoek, J.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios

  13. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  14. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  15. Pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories: the role of catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Lindsey; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    People affected by substance use disorders often experience sub-optimal employment outcomes. The role of drug use in processes that produce and entrench labour market precarity among people who inject drugs (PWID) have not, however, been fully described. We recruited 22 PWID from ongoing prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada, with whom we conducted semi-structured retrospective interviews and then employed a thematic analysis that drew on concepts from life course theory to explore the mechanisms and pathways linking drug use and labour market trajectories. The participants' narratives identified processes corresponding to causation, whereby suboptimal employment outcomes led to harmful drug use; direct selection, where impairment, health complications or drug-seeking activities selected individuals out of employment; and indirect selection, where external factors, such as catastrophic events, marked the initiation or intensification of substance use concurrent with sudden changes in capacities for employment. Catastrophic events linking negative transitions in both drug use and labour market trajectories were of primary importance, demarcating critical initiation and transitional events in individual risk trajectories. These results challenge conventional assumptions about the primacy of drug use in determining employment outcomes among PWID and suggest the importance of multidimensional support to mitigate the initiation, accumulation and entrenchment of labour market and drug-related disadvantage. © 2015 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

  16. Polarization Catastrophe Contributing to Rotation and Tornadic Motion in Cumulo-Nimbus Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, P. H.

    2007-05-01

    When the concentration of sub-micron ice particles in a cloud exceeds 2.5E21 per cubic cm, divided by the squared average number of water molecules per crystallite, the polarization catastrophe occurs. Then all ice crystallites nucleated on aerosol dust particles align their dipole moments in the same direction, and a large polarization vector field is generated in the cloud. Often this vector field has a radial component directed away from the vertical axis of the cloud. It is induced by the pre-existing electric field caused by the charged screening layers at the cloud surface, the screening shell of the cloud. The presence of a vertical component of the magnetic field of the earth creates a density of linear momentum G=DxB in the azimuthal direction, where D=eE+P is the electric displacement vector and e is the vacuum permittivity. This linear momentum density yields an angular momentum density vector directed upward in the nordic hemisphere, if the polarization vector points away from the vertical axis of the cloud. When the cloud becomes colloidally unstable, the crystallites grow beyond the size limit at which they still could carry a large ferroelectric saturation dipole moment, and the polarization vector quickly disappears. Then the cloud begins to rotate with an angular momentum that has the same direction. Due to the large average number of water molecules in a crystallite, the polarization catastrophe (PC) is present in practically all clouds, and is compensated by masking charges. In cumulo-nimbus (thunder-) clouds the collapse of the PC is rapid, and the masking charges lead to lightning, and in the upper atmosphere also to sprites, elves, and blue jets. In stratus clouds, however, the collapse is slow, and only leads to reverse polarity in dissipating clouds (minus on the bottom), as compared with growing clouds (plus on the bottom, because of the excess polarization charge). References: P.H. Handel: "Polarization Catastrophe Theory of Cloud

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  18. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  19. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247...) ``providing an assessment of the current state of the market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United... appropriate and available, regarding natural catastrophes and the current state of the market for insurance...

  20. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  1. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  2. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  3. Space power as a response to global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempsell, Mark

    2006-10-01

    Global catastrophes (events that cause the death of more than a quarter of world population) can credibly be caused through either natural events or human activity. It has been argued that space industrialisation generally offers a response to the risks involved by this class of event and should be the key focus of space infrastructure development. Space power has always been argued as the only energy generating option that avoids depletion of non-renewable resources or pollution induced problems—in particular global warming. However, there are many other potential roles for a solar power capability and the infrastructure associated with it can play in the prevention of global catastrophes and this paper examines this wider application. A very preliminary examination indicates the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) infrastructure can also support strategic defence, Near-Earth Object defence, climate modification, and major resource provision. Combined these may give the capability to deal with all the main threats to human civilisation.

  4. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  5. Catastrophic Intramedullary Abscess Caused by a Missed Congenital Dermal Sinus

    OpenAIRE

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-01-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. The...

  6. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  7. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  8. [Manfredonia (Southern Italy): a continuous catastrophe, newfound citizenship, and removal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malavasi, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    This article concerns the history of Manfredonia (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), linked to the petrochemical industry owned by Eni (from 1960s to 1990s). The city suffered not only an important accident occurred in 1976 with arsenic dissemination, but also a continuous catastrophe. In the 1980s, the popular movement contributed to an improved citizenship, but also to rifts and conflicts. The petrochemical impact on community determined disruption in domestic and social relationships, divided memory, and removal.

  9. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  10. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  11. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-10-29

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC.

  12. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  13. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  14. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  15. The association of catastrophizing with quality-of-life outcomes in patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, LeeAnne B; Leary, Emily; Henderson, Wendy A

    2017-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a cognitive process characterized by a propensity to concentrate on and magnify the value of an actual or anticipated painful stimulus and negatively assesses one's ability to cope. Catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain-related outcomes. A cornerstone symptom of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is abdominal pain or discomfort. Also individuals with IBS have been reported to have a tendency to catastrophize. In a sample of individuals who suffer from IBS, we hypothesized that those individuals who catastrophize (catastrophizers) would have worse outcomes as compared to those who do not catastrophize (non-catastrophizers). One hundred and one adults with IBS (79% female, mean age 42 years, 97% Caucasian) were recruited from outpatient clinics and data were collected through self-report measures. Catastrophizing was measured with the catastrophizing subscale of the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, illness representations were measured with The Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R), psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory 18 (BSI-18), and health-related quality of life was measured using the Irritable Bowel Syndrome-Quality of Life (IBS-QOL) measure. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and multiple linear regression analyses were completed to describe participants, the associations of the variables of interest, and the unique relationship between psychosocial variables and HRQOL. Overall, participants reported poor HRQOL (M = 63.32, range 0-100). Catastrophizers differed significantly on IBS-QOL from non-catastrophizers (M = 48.98 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 78.53; p IPQ-R, specifically the consequences (M = 21.75 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 17.20; p < 0.001) and emotional representations (M = 20.90 vs. non-catastrophizers M = 15.43; p < 0.001). Catastrophizing was positively correlated with the consequences (r = .54; p < 0.01) and emotional

  16. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  17. Dissipative tunneling and orthogonality catastrophe in molecular transistors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braig, S.; Flensberg, Karsten

    2004-01-01

    of the charge on the molecule to the vibrational modes of the environment has on the I-V characteristics. We find that, for comparable characteristic length scales of the van der Waals and electrostatic interaction of the molecule with the environmental vibrational modes, the I-V characteristics...... are qualitatively changed from what one would expect from orthogonality catastrophe and develop a steplike discontinuity at the onset of conduction. For the case of very different length scales, we recover dissipation consistent with modeling the electrostatic forces as an external influence on the system comprised...

  18. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors....

  19. Catastrophic intramedullary abscess caused by a missed congenital dermal sinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dho, Yun-Sik; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Phi, Ji Hoon

    2015-03-01

    Congenital dermal sinus (CDS) is a type of occult spinal dysraphism characterized by a midline skin dimple. A 12-month-old girl presented with fever and ascending quadriparesis. She had a midline skin dimple in the upper sacral area that had been discovered in her neonatal period. Imaging studies revealed a holocord intramedullary abscess and CDS. Overlooking CDS or misdiagnosing it as benign sacrococcygeal dimple may lead to catastrophic infection and cause serious neurological deficits. Therefore, further imaging work-up or consultation with a pediatric neurosurgeon is recommended following discovery of any atypical-looking dimples in the midline.

  20. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  1. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  2. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  3. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock - a case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieba, Bozena; Wegrzyn, Agnieszka; Mital, Andrzej; Szczepińska-Nowak, Maria; Lewicki, Lukasz; Chmielecki, Michał; Puchalski, Wiesław; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej

    2009-07-01

    A case of a 29-year-old woman 18 days after delivery with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome secondary (CAPS) due to undiagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus, leading to cardiogenic shock is reported. Laboratory evaluation revealed increased anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, antinuclear antibody and thrombocytopenia. Left ventricular ejection fraction was 20%, neurologic deficit and acute renal failure were also present. Cardiac involvement is common in CAPS, but cardiomyopathy due to microvascular thrombosis is rare. CAPS should be considered as a cause of acute heart failure in a women with systemic lupus erythematosus. In the presented case early therapy with anticoagulants, steroids, immunoglobulins and plasmaferesis was beneficial.

  4. Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author points out Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz (Witkacy, especially his theory of metaphysical feelings and their disappearance in mass society. Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz, known among the philosophy critics as neohumanistic catastrophist, has foreseen many categories which are typical for Habermas’ and Baudrillard’s writings. The neo-catastrophic mechanisms has a serious consequences for the condition of postmodern subject, the more so because the main part of the neocatastrophism is the strong conviction that there is no escape. The author, besides the main thesis mentioned above, highlights some common features between Baudillard’s and Habermas’ conceptions.

  5. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  6. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  7. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  8. [Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilas, Ljiljana Todorović; Bajkin, Ivana; Icin, Tijana; Paro, Jovanka Novaković; Zavisić, Branka Kovacev

    2012-01-01

    Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger a utoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction. is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consuquences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima). The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  9. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  10. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  11. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  12. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems.

  13. Effect of catastrophic wildfires on asthmatic outcomes in obese children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Kevin; Chen, Lie; Tse, Mabel; Zuraw, Bruce; Christiansen, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Background Air pollutants from wildfires and obesity independently exacerbate asthma, yet no study has determined the combined effects of these 2 variables on asthma outcomes. Objective To determine the effect of 2 catastrophic wildfires affecting the Southern California region (in 2003 and 2007) on several asthma outcomes in a cohort of children. Methods To investigate the association between wildfire exposure and asthma outcomes, we stratified our study population by body mass index categories (underweight, normal, overweight, and obese) and zip codes (to distinguish individuals who were closer to the fires vs farther away). The primary outcome was the prevalence of physician-dispensed short-acting β-agonist (SABAs). Secondary outcomes included the rate of emergency department visits and/or hospitalizations for asthma, the frequency of oral corticosteroid use for asthma, and number of new diagnoses of asthma. Results A total of 2,195 and 3,965 asthmatic children were analyzed as part of our retrospective cohort during the 2003 and 2007 wildfires, respectively. SABA dispensing increased the most in the obese group after the 2003 wildfires (P wildfire. Conclusion Catastrophic wildfires lead to worsening asthma outcomes, particularly in obese individuals. This study gives further evidence of a link between obesity and asthma severity and suggests that air pollutants released during wildfires can have substantial detrimental effects on asthma control. PMID:25747784

  14. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  15. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households

    OpenAIRE

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Background Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. Methods This study used data from the Q...

  16. Catastrophe climatique irréversible et politique de l'effet de serre

    OpenAIRE

    Sébastien ROUILLON

    2000-01-01

    This paper considers the issue of a catastrophic environmental collapse and the way one should deal with it. In the model used here, one faces the choice to cross or not a critical threshold of pollution, which consequences are a definitive destruction of some environmental characteristic. The introduced decision-rule compares the economic cost of the emission constraint, designed to avoid the catastrophe, to the damage of the catastrophic event. Depending on the order between this alternativ...

  17. State Versus Trait: Validating State Assessment of Child and Parental Catastrophic Thinking About Children's Acute Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Hannah; Birnie, Kathryn A; Noel, Melanie; Vervoort, Tine; Goubert, Liesbet; Boerner, Katelynn E; Chambers, Christine T; Caes, Line

    2017-04-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as one of the most robust predictors of child pain outcomes. Although assessments of state (ie, situation-specific) pain catastrophizing in children and parents are often used, their psychometric properties are unknown. This study aimed to assess factor structure, reliability, and predictive validity of state versions of Pain Catastrophizing Scales for children and parents relative to corresponding trait versions for child and parental pain-related outcomes. Data were pooled from 8 experimental pain studies in which child and/or parent state catastrophizing (measured immediately before application of a pain stimulus) and trait catastrophizing were assessed in community-based samples of children aged 8 to 18 years (N = 689) and their parents (N = 888) in Dutch or English. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to examine the underlying factor structure of the state versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for parents/children, revealing a single factor solution that explained 55.53% of the variance for children and 49.72% for parents. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to examine relative influence of state versus trait catastrophizing on child and parent pain-related outcomes. Child and parent state catastrophizing were significantly associated with child pain intensity, child state anxiety and parental distress. State catastrophizing scores showed stronger associations than trait scores for most outcomes. This article presents the psychometric properties of state pain catastrophizing measures for children and parents. Findings underscore the importance of assessing state pain catastrophizing about acute pain experiences in parents and children, and provide a basis for robust and valid measurement of state pain catastrophizing about child pain. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Factors associated with increased risk for pain catastrophizing in patients with chronic neck pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sang Jun; Lee, Rippy; Yoon, Duck Mi; Yoon, Kyung Bong; Kim, Kiwook; Kim, Shin Hyung

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Pain catastrophizing is becoming increasingly recognized as a clinically important psychological factor in chronic musculoskeletal pain. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we have identified factors associated with an increased risk for pain catastrophizing in chronic neck pain (CNP) patients. We obtained data from our medical database on 331 patients who were treated for neck pain as their chief complaint at our clinic. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to define a high pain catastrophizing state (PCS score ≥21) in this study. Patient demographics, pain-related factors, and psychological factors were evaluated with logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of high pain catastrophizing among patients with CNP. A total of 256 patients with CNP satisfied the study inclusion criteria and were included in the analyses. The median PCS score was 16 (range, 0–45), and 86 of 256 patients (33.5%) reported a PCS score ≥21. In multivariate analysis, high pain intensity, clinical insomnia, and a high level of depression/anxiety were strongly associated with high pain catastrophizing in patients with CNP. Depression was the strongest predictor of high pain catastrophizing, with an odds ratio of 7.35 (95% confidence interval 2.23–24.22). High pain catastrophizing was not significantly related to age, gender, comorbidities, or neck pain-related physical symptoms. In conclusion, poor psychological states should be addressed as an important part of pain management in CNP patients who are susceptible to high pain catastrophizing. PMID:27631217

  19. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W; Quartana, Phillip J; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y

    2008-04-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only patients described by certain combinations of pain catastrophizing and physiological indexes would report pronounced chronic pain. Chronic low back pain patients (N = 97) participated in anger recall and sadness recall interviews while lower paraspinal and trapezius EMG and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate (HR) were recorded. Mediation models were not supported. However, pain catastrophizing significantly interacted with resting lower paraspinal muscle tension to predict pain severity such that high catastrophizers with high resting lower paraspinal tension reported the greatest pain. Pain catastrophizing also interacted with SBP, DBP and HR reactivity to affect pain such that high catastrophizers who showed low cardiovascular reactivity to the interviews reported the greatest pain. Results support a multi-variable profile approach to identifying pain catastrophizers at greatest risk for pain severity by virtue of resting muscle tension and cardiovascular stress function.

  20. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Suso-Ribera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation. If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  1. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  2. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  3. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  4. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  5. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  7. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  8. Astronomy and catastrophes through myth and old texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, E.; Ćirković, M.; Stojić, Igor; Gavrilović, Nataša

    In the old myths and iconographies there are some motives that indicate at least one cataclysmic event that influenced many old religions and myths, that could be linked to the impact of the celestial object. We investigate the hypothesis of coherent catastrophism put forward in recent years by Clube, Bailey, Napier and others from both astrobiological and culturogical points of view. The conventional idea that the quasi-periodic break-up of celestial bodies influence terrestrial conditions can today be placed in both wider (astro-biological) and deeper (historico-culturological) context. In particular, we point out that the link between the Neolithic history of astronomy, and origin of Mithraism. We speculate that the main icon of Mithraic religion could pinpoint an event that happened around 4000 BC, when the spring equinox entered the constellation of Taurus. We also, link some motives in other old religions and myths to the same event, or to some similar events that inspired those myths.

  9. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  10. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  11. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  12. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  13. Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, G F; Lindop, N A; Edmunds, W J; Nokes, D J

    2001-05-01

    Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time, 'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

  14. Genomic catastrophism and the origin of vertebrate immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, A L

    1999-01-01

    Genomic catastrophism is the belief that unique genetic events, unlike those observed in recent evolutionary history, played a key role in the origin of vertebrate adaptations. Catastrophist hypotheses have been particularly popular is accounting for the origin of vertebrate specific immunity. Two major such hypotheses involve genome duplication by polyploidization and horizontal gene transfer. Recent analyses lead to decisive rejection of the widely cited hypothesis that the vertebrate genome underwent two rounds of genome duplication, and theoretical considerations suggest that genome duplication is unlikely to lead to new adaptive advances. Likewise, the evidence that key elements of the vertebrate immune system arose by horizontal transfer from a bacterium or by incorporation of a transposable element into the vertebrate genome remains relatively weak. Thus, at present, a uniformitarian view of the origin of the vertebrate immune system seems more reasonable, especially given the longer time-frame for vertebrate evolution indicated by molecular data.

  15. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  16. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  17. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  18. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  19. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  20. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  1. Impact of parental catastrophizing and contextual threat on parents' emotional and behavioral responses to their child's pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caes, Line; Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Goubert, Liesbet

    2012-03-01

    Limited research has addressed processes underlying parents' empathic responses to their child's pain. The present study investigated the effects of parental catastrophizing, threatening information about the child's pain, and child pain expression upon parental emotional and behavioral responses to their child's pain. A total of 56 school children participated in a heat pain task consisting of 48 trials while being observed by 1 of their parents. Trials were preceded by a blue or yellow circle, signaling possible pain stimulation (i.e., pain signal) or no pain stimulation (i.e., safety signal). Parents received either neutral or threatening information regarding the heat stimulus. Parents' negative emotional responses when anticipating their child's pain were assessed using psychophysiological measures- i.e., fear-potentiated startle and corrugator EMG activity. Parental behavioral response to their child's pain (i.e., pain attending talk) was assessed during a 3-minute parent-child interaction that followed the pain task. The Child Facial Coding System (CFCS) was used to assess children's facial pain expression during the pain task. Results indicated that receiving threatening information was associated with a stronger parental corrugator EMG activity during pain signals in comparison with safety signals. The same pattern was found for parental fear-potentiated startle reflex, particularly when the child's facial pain expression was high. In addition, parents who reported high levels of catastrophizing thought about their child's pain engaged, in comparison with low-catastrophizing parents, in more pain-attending talk when they received threatening information. The findings are discussed in the context of affective-motivational theories of pain. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit union...

  3. The Relation Between Catastrophizing and Occupational Disability in Individuals with Major Depression: Concurrent and Prospective Associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Heather; Thibault, Pascal; Ellis, Tamra; Moore, Emily; Sullivan, Michael

    2017-09-01

    Background Catastrophic thinking has been associated with occupational disability in individuals with debilitating pain conditions. The relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability has not been previously examined in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions. The present study examined the relation between catastrophic thinking and occupational disability in individuals with major depression. Methods The study sample consisted of 80 work-disabled individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) who were referred to an occupational rehabilitation service. Participants completed measures of depressive symptom severity, catastrophic thinking and occupational disability at admission and termination of a rehabilitation intervention. Return-to-work outcomes were assessed 1 month following the termination of the rehabilitation intervention. Results Cross-sectional analyses of admission data revealed that catastrophic thinking contributed significant variance to the prediction of self-reported occupational disability, beyond the variance accounted for by depressive symptom severity. Prospective analyses revealed that reductions in catastrophic thinking predicted successful return to work following the rehabilitation intervention, beyond the variance accounted for by reductions in depressive symptom severity. Conclusions The findings suggest that catastrophic thinking is a determinant of occupational disability in individuals with major depressive disorder. The findings further suggest that interventions designed to reduce catastrophic thinking might promote occupational re-integration in individuals with debilitating mental health conditions.

  4. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  5. Parent pain catastrophizing predicts child depressive symptoms in youth with sickle cell disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein-Leever, Alana; Cohen, Lindsey L; Dampier, Carlton; Sil, Soumitri

    2018-03-07

    Youth with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk for recurrent pain and depressive symptoms, both of which contribute to poorer health outcomes. Furthermore, youth and family coping with child pain, including pain catastrophizing, is known to be associated with poorer psychosocial adjustment and greater functional disability among youth with SCD. In particular, child catastrophizing about pain and parent catastrophizing about their child's pain have been linked to increased pain and depressive symptoms in youth with chronic pain conditions. Despite this, the impact of child and parent pain catastrophizing on depressive symptoms remains unexplored in pediatric SCD. The current study evaluated the predictive value of child and parent pain catastrophizing on child depressive symptoms in a sample of 100 youth with SCD. Differences in child and parent pain catastrophizing across youth with and without clinically elevated depressive symptoms were also examined. Pain frequency and parent and child pain catastrophizing accounted for 35.9% of variance in child depressive symptoms, with only pain frequency and parent pain catastrophizing emerging as unique predictors of clinically elevated depressive symptoms. Additionally, parents of youth with clinically elevated depressive symptoms showed increased helplessness relative to parents of youth with minimal to mild depressive symptoms. Findings support the value of depression screening and interventions to promote parent self-efficacy in managing childhood SCD pain. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  7. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to

  8. Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour en 2006). Couverture du livre Indonesia's Fires and Haze : The Cost of Catastrophe (mise à jour. Directeur(s):. David Glover et Timothy Jessup. Maison(s) d'édition: ISEAS, CRDI. 1 janvier 1999. ISBN : 9812300066. 160 pages. e-ISBN : 1552503321.

  9. Influence of Photospheric Magnetic Conditions on the Catastrophic Behaviors of Flux Ropes in Solar Active Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui; Liu, Jiajia, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2017-02-01

    Since only the magnetic conditions at the photosphere can be routinely observed in current observations, it is of great significance to determine the influences of photospheric magnetic conditions on solar eruptive activities. Previous studies about catastrophe indicated that the magnetic system consisting of a flux rope in a partially open bipolar field is subject to catastrophe, but not if the bipolar field is completely closed under the same specified photospheric conditions. In order to investigate the influence of the photospheric magnetic conditions on the catastrophic behavior of this system, we expand upon the 2.5-dimensional ideal magnetohydrodynamic model in Cartesian coordinates to simulate the evolution of the equilibrium states of the system under different photospheric flux distributions. Our simulation results reveal that a catastrophe occurs only when the photospheric flux is not concentrated too much toward the polarity inversion line and the source regions of the bipolar field are not too weak; otherwise no catastrophe occurs. As a result, under certain photospheric conditions, a catastrophe could take place in a completely closed configuration, whereas it ceases to exist in a partially open configuration. This indicates that whether the background field is completely closed or partially open is not the only necessary condition for the existence of catastrophe, and that the photospheric conditions also play a crucial role in the catastrophic behavior of the flux rope system.

  10. Microtubule dynamic instability: A new model with coupled GTP hydrolysis and multistep catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowne-Anderson, Hugo; Zanic, Marija; Kauer, Monika; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-01-01

    A key question in understanding microtubule dynamics is how GTP hydrolysis leads to catastrophe, the switch from slow growth to rapid shrinkage. We first provide a review of the experimental and modeling literature, and then present a new model of microtubule dynamics. We demonstrate that vectorial, random, and coupled hydrolysis mechanisms are not consistent with the dependence of catastrophe on tubulin concentration and show that, although single-protofilament models can explain many features of dynamics, they do not describe catastrophe as a multistep process. Finally, we present a new combined (coupled plus random hydrolysis) multiple-protofilament model that is a simple, analytically solvable generalization of a single-protofilament model. This model accounts for the observed lifetimes of growing microtubules, the delay to catastrophe following dilution and describes catastrophe as a multistep process. PMID:23532586

  11. Catastrophic expenditure due to out-of-pocket health payments and its determinants in Colombian households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaya-Lara, Jeannette Liliana

    2016-11-10

    Out-of-pocket expenditure to pay for health services could result in financial catastrophe. The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence and determinants of catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in Colombia. The underlying hypotheses are that low-income and non-insured population in Colombia, and households living in isolated and high level of rurality regions, are more likely to incur catastrophic healthcare expenses. This study used data from the Quality of Life National Survey conducted in Colombia in 2011. The presence of catastrophic healthcare spending was calculated using the methodology proposed by the World Health Organization in 2005. Households were classified as having catastrophic health spending when their out-of-pocket health payments were over 20 % of their payment capacity. All other households were classified as not having catastrophic health spending. A probit model was estimated aimed at determining what factors influence the probability of catastrophic healthcare spending. Study findings show that 9.6 % of Colombian households had catastrophic expenditure. The incidence was higher in households in the Pacífica and Atlántica regions, extended and nuclear families, households with children or elderly adults, located in rural areas, and not insured under the healthcare system. The ratio of household members who work seems to reduce the risk of catastrophic healthcare spending, but the occurrence of any in-patient event increases it. So, there is no statistical evidence for rejecting the hypotheses under study. Results indicate the importance of establishing intervention mechanisms in order to improve equity in access and payment for health care, protect vulnerable groups against financial risk, and, consequently, reduce the incidence of catastrophic healthcare spending. For this, it is essential to achieve universal health coverage through standardized and improved health services packages for vulnerable age groups and

  12. The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

  13. Is metacognition a causal moderator of the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety? A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Robin; Wells, Adrian

    2016-03-01

    Psychological theories have identified a range of variables contributing to health anxiety, including, dysfunctional illness beliefs, catastrophic misinterpretation, somatosensory amplification and neuroticism. More recently, metacognitive beliefs have been proposed as important in health anxiety. This study aimed to test the potential causal role of metacognitive beliefs in health anxiety. A prospective design was employed and participants (n = 105) completed a battery of questionnaire at two time points (6 months apart). Results demonstrated that cognitive, personality and metacognitive variables were bi-variate prospective correlates of health anxiety. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that only metacognitive beliefs emerged as independent and significant prospective predictors of health anxiety. Moderation analysis demonstrated that metacognitive beliefs prospectively moderated the relationship between catastrophic misinterpretation and health anxiety. Follow-up regression analysis incorporating the interaction term (metacognition × misinterpretation) showed that the term explained additional variance in health anxiety. The results confirm that metacognition is a predictor of health anxiety and it is more substantive than misinterpretations of symptoms, somatosensory amplification, neuroticism, and illness beliefs. These results may have major implications for current cognitive models and for the treatment of health anxiety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Functional Catastrophe Analysis of Collapse Mechanism for Shallow Tunnels with Considering Settlement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Limit analysis is a practical and meaningful method to predict the stability of geomechanical properties. This work investigates the pore water effect on new collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement. The analysis is performed within the framework of upper bound theorem. Furthermore, the NL nonlinear failure criterion is used to examine the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape and the minimum supporting pressure in shallow tunnels. Analytical solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory for the two different shape curves which describe the distinct characteristics of falling blocks up and down the water level are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle. By considering that the mechanical properties of soil are not affected by the presence of underground water, the strength parameters in NL failure criterion can be taken to be the same under and above the water table. According to the numerical results in this work, the influences on the size of collapsing block different parameters have are presented in the tables and the upper bounds on the loads required to resist collapse are derived and illustrated in the form of supporting forces graphs that account for the variation of the embedded depth and other factors.

  15. Disequilibrium macro model and catastrophe theory: the case of an oil shock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    German, I.

    1983-01-01

    This study builds a simple disequilibrium macromodel of a small open economy that imports oil from an exogenous unit. The model is motivated by very slow adjustment of prices and wages to disequilibrium. Output on the other hand adjusts to its final level instantaneously. A rationing scheme is specified that explicitly takes into account the spillover effects and differentiates between notional, effective, and actual quantities. In a Solow-Stiglitz (1968) setting, a dynamic model is developed in which the dynamic forces depend on the economic environment specified by the Malinvandian regimes: Classical Unemployment, Keynesian Unemployment, Repressed Inflation, and the Walrasian Equilibrium. Given that dynamic system, the author seeks to identify the stationary points of the system (quasi-equilibria) and to find their stability properties. To the disequilibrium model an oil shock is introduced and its effects on employment, real output, real wage, and the stationary points of the system are investigated. A one-time increase (decrease) in the real price of oil and a continuous increase (decrease) in the real price of oil are considered. The path the economy takes and, in particular, the continuous and discontinuous behavior of the quasi-equilibria are investigated. Finally, the model government policy is incorporated and different policy alternatives are studied.

  16. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  17. Dyson quantum field theory. The worldwide known introduction by one of the fathers of the QED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Freeman

    2014-01-01

    The content: The Dirac equation - scattering problems and the Born approximation - the classical and quantum-mechanical field theory - examples of quantized field theories (Maxwell field, Dirac electrons) - scattering problems of free particles (pair annihilation, Moller scattering, Klein-Nishina formula) - general theory of the scattering (Feynman graphs, infrared catastrophe) - scattering on a static potential and experimental results.

  18. Predicting extreme wind speeds on a tropical island for multi-peril catastrophe modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Moncoulon, David; Millinship, Ian; Raven, Emma

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are important tools used by the reinsurance industry for assessing and managing risk. Here, we present the methods used to develop high-resolution wind hazard maps for the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion. As the recent Cyclone Dumile (January 2013) reminded us, the island is at considerable risk from the extreme weather associated with tropical cyclones. It also contains a significant proportion of the total value insured in French overseas territories. The wind maps, alongside flood and storm surge maps, were ultimately combined with exposure information in a multi-peril catastrophe model to provide probabilistic estimates of insured loss. Our wind mapping methodology used established extreme value theory statistics to estimate the annual probability of extreme wind speeds, including those exceeding the observed maxima of our 19 year record, at meteorological stations. This gave approximate wind speeds for a range of return periods at these specific locations. Since the spatial density of the stations was insufficient to resolve the numerous potential effects of the complex island topography, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were then developed to interpolate these cyclonic wind speeds across the entire island. Factors known to affect local wind speed such as elevation, surface roughness and coastal proximity were explicitly accounted for. Using this advanced interpolation method, wind hazard maps were produced for six return periods between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1000 years. Our maps compared favourably with those of historical events, and also showed patterns of wind speed in agreement with the findings of other studies investigating the effects of topography. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) further confirmed the satisfactory performance of the models in providing a robust and comprehensive description of wind patterns during cyclone passage. Uncertainty increased with return period as more extrapolation of the limited

  19. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  20. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  2. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  3. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  4. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  5. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  6. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-03-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  7. Catastrophic Transculturation in Dracula, The Strain and The Historian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Hoglund

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The article notes that what Paul Brantlinger has referred to as the Imperial Gothic insists that the encounter between cultures results not in a transcultural merger, but in an apocalyptic struggle for survival. As this struggle is often tied to past and present-day imperial sentiment, the article suggests that both late-Victorian and contemporary fiction can effectively be discussed with the help of Marie Louise Pratt's concept transculturation. Through a reading of three vampire narratives, Stokers's Dracula (1897, Del Toro and Hogan's The Strain (2009 and Kostova's The Historian (2005, the article demonstrates how past and present imperial gothic texts describe the derailment of European modernity and insists that cultural encounter produce monstrous hybrids that threaten an ontological and/or epistemological apocalypse. In this way, the cultural encounter that these gothic novels imagine result in catastrophic transculturation and the article argues that this is a common way of understanding the transnational meeting in American neo-imperial discourse.

  8. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  9. The epidemiology of catastrophic spine injuries in high school and college football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sanjitpal S; Boden, Barry P

    2008-03-01

    Athletic events have long been identified as a source of catastrophic spinal injuries. One of the most notorious sports has been American football. At both the amateur and professional level, this collision sport is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries including cervical spine trauma and quadriplegia. Although modifications in the rules of play and education of players and coaches have significantly diminished the rate of quadriplegia, there remains a need to decrease the number of catastrophic spine injuries in football. Further research related to the prevention and management of athletic cervical spine trauma is necessary.

  10. A mechanism for catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation for sparse observation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Gottwald

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We study catastrophic filter divergence in data assimilation procedures whereby the forecast model develops severe numerical instabilities leading to a blow-up of the solution. Catastrophic filter divergence can occur in sparse observational grids with small observational noise for intermediate observation intervals and finite ensemble sizes. Using a minimal five-dimensional model, we establish that catastrophic filter divergence is a numerical instability of the underlying forecast model caused by the filtering procedure producing analyses which are not consistent with the true dynamics, and stiffness caused by the fast attraction of the inconsistent analyses towards the attractor during the forecast step.

  11. The interplay of parent and adolescent catastrophizing and its impact on adolescents' pain, functioning, and pain behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R

    2013-08-01

    Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N=240). Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (>70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems.

  12. The Interplay of Parent and Adolescent Catastrophizing and Its Impact on Adolescents’ Pain, Functioning, and Pain Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Jordan, Anne M.; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita; Szabova, Alexandra; Goldschneider, Kenneth R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Catastrophizing is a coping style linked to poorer patient outcomes. Little attention has focused on the parent-adolescent dyad and catastrophizing as a shared coping style. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of adolescent and parent pain catastrophizing on adolescent functioning and (2) explore concordance in catastrophizing in parent-adolescent dyads, with equal interest in outcomes of dyads with discordant coping styles. Methods Pain intensity, catastrophizing, depressive symptoms, quality of life, and pain behaviors were assessed in adolescents (ages 11 to 17) presenting to a pediatric chronic pain clinic (N = 240). Results Significant correlations between (1) parent and adolescent catastrophizing; (2) catastrophizing and pain behaviors; and (3) catastrophizing and adolescent outcomes were found. Parents and adolescents were classified into concordant or discordant dyads based on catastrophizing with a majority of dyads (> 70%) showing concordant coping styles. Among discordant dyads, functional disability and depressive symptoms were significantly higher in a dyad with a high catastrophizing adolescent and low catastrophizing parent. Discussion Results provide further support for catastrophizing being a maladaptive coping strategy for adolescents with pain and their parents. Greater adolescent catastrophizing was related to increased pain behaviors and poorer adolescent functioning. Parent catastrophizing also seems related to poorer adolescent outcomes, and most parent-adolescent dyads showed concordance in use of catastrophizing, which may suggest a shared tendency for adaptive or maladaptive styles of coping with pain. Future research should investigate pain coping at a dyadic or family level to explore how family coping styles magnify distress and disability or buffer adolescents from such problems. PMID:23370064

  13. Psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for acute low back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Antunes Lopes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Measurement instruments of pain catastrophizing for middle-aged and elderly individuals are needed to understand its impact on low back pain. The goals were to cross-culturally adapt the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, assess the construct validity through Rasch analysis, and verify reliability and convergent validity of pain catastrophizing with psychosocial factors. 131 individuals aged 55 years and older with acute low back pain were interviewed . The intra-rater reliability was Kp = 0.80 and interrater Kp = 0.75. The Rasch analysis found adequate reliability coefficients (0.95 for items and 0.90 for individuals . The separation index for the elderly was 2.95 and 4.59 items. Of the 13 items, one did not fit the model, which was justified in the sample evaluated. The pain catastrophizing correlated with most psychosocial factors. The instrument proved to be clinically useful. Subsequent studies should carry out the same analysis in different populations.

  14. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  15. [Catastrophic health expenditures in Mexico: comparative study by social exclusion level].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rico, Raymundo; Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Puentes-Rosas, Esteban

    2005-01-01

    To describe the differences in catastrophic health expenditures in five Mexican states. This study included five states selected by convenience according to their social exclusion level. Household catastrophic health expenditures attributable to the three components of out of pocket health expenditures (ambulatory care, medication, and inpatient care) were calculated. The risk of impoverishment at the national level was greater in the most vulnerable households, namely, in the 20% poorest, rural, and uninsured households. Nevertheless, in states like Aguascalientes, Guerrero, Sinaloa, and Morelos the results were different. Over 70% of catastrophic health expenditures were attributable to medication and outpatient care expenditures in the poorest states. The differences found among states show that the implementation of local health policies to reduce catastrophic health expenditures should be based on evidence generated from analyses at the state level.

  16. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  17. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : New York City -- September 11, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the terrorist attack in New York City on September 11, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  18. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Northridge earthquake -- January 17, 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-22

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system faci...

  19. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : cross cutting study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    In order to provide a better understanding of how transportation is both affected and utilized in an emergency situation, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) commissioned a series of four case studies examining the effects of catastrophic event...

  20. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  1. Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Alan Flory

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: Environmental impacts from carcass management are a significant concern globally. Despite a history of costly, ineffective, and environmentally damaging carcass disposal efforts, large animal carcass disposal methods have advanced little in the past decade. An outbreak today will likely be managed with the same carcass disposal techniques used in the previous decades and will likely result in the same economic, health, and environmental impacts. This article overviews the results of one field test that was completed in Virginia (United States using the aboveground burial (AGB technique and the disposal of 111 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD infected sheep in Tunisia using a similar methodology. Materials and Methods: Researchers in the United States conducted a field test to assess the environmental impact and effectiveness of AGB in decomposing livestock carcasses. The system design included a shallow trench excavated into native soil and a carbonaceous base placed on the bottom of the trenches followed by a single layer of animal carcasses. Excavated soils were subsequently placed on top of the animals, and a vegetative layer was established. A similar methodology was used in Tunisia to manage sheep infected with FMDs, Peste des Petits Ruminants virus, and Bluetongue Virus. Results: The results of the field test in the United States demonstrated a significant carcass degradation during the 1-year period of the project, and the migration of nutrients below the carcasses appears to be limited thereby minimizing the threat of groundwater contamination. The methodology proved practical for the disposal of infected sheep carcasses in Tunisia. Conclusions: Based on the analysis conducted to date, AGB appears to offer many benefits over traditional burial for catastrophic mortality management. Ongoing research will help to identify limitations of the method and determine where its application during large disease outbreaks or natural

  2. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  3. Integrated Modeling of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities and Decisions Induced by Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Ermolieva, T.Y.; Fischer, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses an integrated model capable of dealing with spatial and temporal heterogeneities induced by extreme events, in particular weather related catastrophes. The model can be used for quite different problems which take explicitly into account the specifics of catastrophic risks: highly mutually dependent losses, inherent capacity of information, the need for long-term perspectives (temporal heterogeneity) and geographically explicit analyses (spatial heterogeneity) with respec...

  4. An Empirical Investigation of Catastrophic Forgetting in Gradient-Based Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Goodfellow, Ian J.; Mirza, Mehdi; Xiao, Da; Courville, Aaron; Bengio, Yoshua

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic forgetting is a problem faced by many machine learning models and algorithms. When trained on one task, then trained on a second task, many machine learning models "forget" how to perform the first task. This is widely believed to be a serious problem for neural networks. Here, we investigate the extent to which the catastrophic forgetting problem occurs for modern neural networks, comparing both established and recent gradient-based training algorithms and activation functions. ...

  5. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-01

    Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

  6. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  7. Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

    2015-04-01

    To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

  8. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  9. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  10. A hybrid simulator model for the control of catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage in the military environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverplats, Katarina; Jonsson, Anders; Lundberg, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic haemorrhage from extremity injuries has for a long time been the single most common cause of preventable death in the military environment. The effective use of extremity tourniquets has increased the survival of combat casualties, and exsanguination from isolated limb injuries is no longer the most common cause of death. Today, the most common cause of potentially preventable death is haemorrhage from the junctional zones, i.e. the most proximal part of the extremities, not amenable to standard tourniquets. Different training techniques to control catastrophic haemorrhage have been used by the Swedish Armed Forces in the pre-deployment training of physicians, nurses and medics for many years. The training techniques include different types of human patient simulators such as moulage patients and manikins. Preferred training conditions for the control of catastrophic haemorrhage include a high degree of realism, in combination with multiple training attempts. This report presents a new hybrid training model for catastrophic external junctional haemorrhage control. It offers a readily reproducible, simple and inexpensive opportunity to train personnel to deal with life threatening catastrophic junctional haemorrhage. In particular, this model offers an opportunity for non-medical military personnel in Sweden to practice control of realistic catastrophic haemorrhage, with multiple training attempts.

  11. Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

    2004-10-01

    As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

  12. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  13. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

    2011-01-04

    The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a class is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between

  14. The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montero Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection. Results By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper. Conclusions The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting

  15. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

  16. Possibly Preventing Catastrophes: Hannah Arendt on Democracy, Education and Judging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monig, Julia Maria

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, I try to argue why it is worth turning to Hannah Arendt when reflecting on education. I am exploring her political theory in "The Human Condition" which, with the anthropologic category of natality, seems to offer an interesting approach for democratic education. Apparently everyone can participate in politics or even…

  17. Household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China: determinants and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaohong; Shen, Jay J; Lu, Jun; Wang, Ying; Sun, Mei; Li, Chengyue; Chang, Fengshui; Hao, Mo

    2013-12-05

    Much of research on household catastrophic medical expenses in China has focused on less developed areas and little is known about this problem in more developed areas. This study aimed to analyse the incidence and determinants of catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China. Data were obtained from a health care utilization and expense survey of 11,577 households conducted in eastern China in 2008. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was calculated using the method introduced by the World Health Organization. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants. The incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses in eastern China ranged from 9.24% to 24.79%. Incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses was lower if the head of household had a higher level of education, labor insurance coverage, while the incidence was higher if they lived in rural areas, had a family member with chronic diseases, had a child younger than 5 years old, had a person at home who was at least 65 years old, and had a household member who was hospitalized. Moreover, the impact of the economic level on catastrophic medical expenses was non-linear. The poorest group had a lower incidence than that of the second lowest income group and the group with the highest income had a higher incidence than that of the second highest income group. In addition, region was a significant determinant. Reducing the incidence of household catastrophic medical expenses should be one of the priorities of health policy. It can be achieved by improving residents' health status to reduce avoidable health services such as hospitalization. It is also important to design more targeted health insurance in order to increase financial support for such vulnerable groups as the poor, chronically ill, children, and senior populations.

  18. A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

    1984-01-01

    The paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertently by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 buildup, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that both regional and global catastrophic risks must be taken into consideration in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risks is proposed. (author)

  19. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  20. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  1. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

    2016-09-13

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  2. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T; Watts, Matthew E; Wooldridge, Scott; Possingham, Hugh P

    2008-04-01

    Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by >60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

  3. Popular culture and the "new human condition": Catastrophe narratives and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulfin, Ailise

    2017-09-01

    Striking popular culture images of burnt landscapes, tidal waves and ice-bound cities have the potential to dramatically and emotively convey the dangers of climate change. Given that a significant number of people derive a substantial proportion of their information on the threat of climate change, or the ;new human condition;, from popular culture works such as catastrophe movies, it is important that an investigation into the nature of the representations produced be embedded in the attempt to address the issue. What climate change-related messages may be encoded in popular films, television and novels, how are they being received, and what effects may they have? This article adopts the cultural studies perspective that popular culture gives us an important means by which to access the ;structures of feeling; that characterise a society at a particular historic juncture: the views held and emotional states experienced by significant amounts of people as evident in disparate forms of cultural production. It further adopts the related viewpoint that popular culture has an effect upon the society in which it is consumed, as well as reflecting that society's desires and concerns - although the nature of the effect may be difficult to quantify. From this position, the article puts forward a theory on the role of ecological catastrophe narratives in current popular culture, before going on to review existing critical work on ecologically-charged popular films and novels which attempts to assess their effects on their audiences. It also suggests areas for future research, such as the prevalent but little studied theme of natural and environmental disaster in late-Victorian science fiction writing. This latter area is of interest because it reveals the emergence of an ecological awareness or structure of feeling as early as the late-nineteenth century, and allows the relationship of this development to environmental policy making to be investigated because of the

  4. Waltz's Theory of Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wæver, Ole

    2009-01-01

    Kenneth N. Waltz's 1979 book, Theory of International Politics, is the most influential in the history of the discipline. It worked its effects to a large extent through raising the bar for what counted as theoretical work, in effect reshaping not only realism but rivals like liberalism and refle......Kenneth N. Waltz's 1979 book, Theory of International Politics, is the most influential in the history of the discipline. It worked its effects to a large extent through raising the bar for what counted as theoretical work, in effect reshaping not only realism but rivals like liberalism...... and reflectivism. Yet, ironically, there has been little attention to Waltz's very explicit and original arguments about the nature of theory. This article explores and explicates Waltz's theory of theory. Central attention is paid to his definition of theory as ‘a picture, mentally formed' and to the radical anti...

  5. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  6. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  7. Catastrophic health expenses and impoverishment of households of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Hernández, Everardo; Peláez-Ballestas, Ingris; Boonen, Annelies; Vázquez-Mellado, Janitzia; Hernández-Garduño, Adolfo; Rivera, Fernando Carlos; Teran-Estrada, Leobardo; Ventura-Ríos, Lucio; Ramos-Remus, César; Skinner-Taylor, Cassandra; Goycochea-Robles, Maria Victoria; Bernard-Medina, Ana Guislaine; Burgos-Vargas, Rubén

    2012-01-01

    The cost of certain diseases may lead to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment of households without full financial support by the state and other organizations. To determine the socioeconomic impact of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cost in the context of catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. This is a cohort-nested cross-sectional multicenter study on the cost of RA in Mexican households with partial, full, or private health care coverage. Catastrophic expenses referred to health expenses totaling >30% of the total household income. Impoverishment defined those households that could not afford the Mexican basic food basket (BFB). We included 262 patients with a mean monthly household income (US dollars) of $376 (0–18,890.63). In all, 50.8%, 35.5%, and 13.7% of the patients had partial, full, or private health care coverage, respectively. RA annual cost was $ 5534.8 per patient (65% direct cost, 35% indirect). RA cost caused catastrophic expenses in 46.9% of households, which in the logistic regression analysis were significantly associated with the type of health care coverage (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.6–4.7) and disease duration (OR 1.024, 95%CI 1.002–1.046). Impoverishment occurred in 66.8% of households and was associated with catastrophic expenses (OR 3.6, 95%CI 1.04–14.1), high health assessment questionnaire scores (OR 4.84 95%CI 1.01–23.3), and low socioeconomic level (OR 4.66, 95%CI 1.37–15.87). The cost of RA in Mexican households, particularly those lacking full health coverage leads to catastrophic expenses and impoverishment. These findings could be the same in countries with fragmented health care systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  8. Tests of Catastrophic Outlier Prediction in Empirical Photometric Redshift Estimation with Redshift Probability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Evan; Singal, Jack

    2018-01-01

    We present results of using individual galaxies' redshift probability information derived from a photometric redshift (photo-z) algorithm, SPIDERz, to identify potential catastrophic outliers in photometric redshift determinations. By using test data comprised of COSMOS multi-band photometry and known spectroscopic redshifts from the 3D-HST survey spanning a wide redshift range (0strategy in photo-z determinations using a range of flagging parameter values. These results could potentially be useful for utilization of photometric redshifts in future large scale surveys where catastrophic outliers are particularly detrimental to the science goals.

  9. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  10. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  11. Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

    2017-01-01

    Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

  12. Chronicle of a death foretold: a case of catastrophic vascular Behcet's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Elitzur, Yair; Korach, Amit; Hiller, Nurith; Chajek-Shaul, Tova

    2007-03-01

    A 20-year-old man with Behcet's disease characterized by recurrent arterial aneurysms presented with a new aortic root aneurysm. This patient previously had aneurysms of the coronary arteries and vein, as well as ruptured renal artery aneurysm. Chronic maintenance immunosuppressive therapy was recommended due to the catastrophic nature of the disease, which the patient refused to take. The patient died shortly after admission. This case demonstrates the unique catastrophic natural history of vascular Behcet's disease with recurrent life-threatening arterial events, and this case stresses the therapeutic dilemma of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy in selected patients.

  13. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  14. From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

  15. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk

    2015-01-01

    in the escitalopram group. No other between-group differences were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Escitalopram did not reduce pain upon ambulation 24 h after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. Future studies on optimal timing, dose, and duration of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment might be warranted....

  16. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  17. Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2001-01-01

    A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe

  18. Children, Literacy and Mass Trauma Teaching in Times of Catastrophic Events and on Going Emergency Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Denny

    2006-01-01

    This article focuses on children living in areas of armed conflict, catastrophic events and on-going emergencies. Based upon her ethnographic research, the author wants to try to share some insights into the complexities of the world in which children sometimes have to fight to live. Her intent is to create a space in which a discussion can take…

  19. Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk-prone small Caribbean islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyette, Antonio R T; Nurse, Leonard A; Pulwarty, Roger S

    2015-07-01

    Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  20. The Media and the Fate of the Medicare Catastrophic Extension Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, David P.; Norem, Lois

    A study examined the relationships between the media, public opinion and the Medicare Catastrophic Act of 1988 which was repealed in 1989. Using the NEXIS electronic database, 11 years (1977-89) of news articles, opinion pieces, editorials, and letters to the editor were harvested in random sequence from the Associated Press news wire, the…

  1. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severeijns, R.; Vlaeyen, J.W.S.; Hout, M.A. van den

    2006-01-01

    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of

  2. Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk in a Stochastic Economy-Climate Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected util- ity with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typi- cally

  3. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  4. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the investigation of the catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine used for underground reaming operations. The results of the investigation indicate that failure was due to the fracture of the 32 drive head bolts, 30...

  5. Genome Sequencing of Pediatric Medulloblastoma Links Catastrophic DNA Rearrangements with TP53 Mutations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rausch, Tobias; Jones, David T. W.; Zapatka, Marc; Stütz, Adrian M.; Zichner, Thomas; Weischenfeldt, Joachim; Jäger, Natalie; Remke, Marc; Shih, David; Northcott, Paul A.; Pfaff, Elke; Tica, Jelena; Wang, Qi; Massimi, Luca; Witt, Hendrik; Bender, Sebastian; Pleier, Sabrina; Cin, Huriye; Hawkins, Cynthia; Beck, Christian; von Deimling, Andreas; Hans, Volkmar; Brors, Benedikt; Eils, Roland; Scheurlen, Wolfram; Blake, Jonathon; Benes, Vladimir; Kulozik, Andreas E.; Witt, Olaf; Martin, Dianna; Zhang, Cindy; Porat, Rinnat; Merino, Diana M.; Wasserman, Jonathan; Jabado, Nada; Fontebasso, Adam; Bullinger, Lars; Rücker, Frank G.; Döhner, Konstanze; Döhner, Hartmut; Koster, Jan; Molenaar, Jan J.; Versteeg, Rogier; Kool, Marcel; Tabori, Uri; Malkin, David; Korshunov, Andrey; Taylor, Michael D.; Lichter, Peter; Pfister, Stefan M.; Korbel, Jan O.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic rearrangements are thought to occur progressively during tumor development. Recent findings, however, suggest an alternative mechanism, involving massive chromosome rearrangements in a one-step catastrophic event termed chromothripsis. We report the whole-genome sequencing-based analysis of

  6. Contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Joong; Kim, Yun-Ho; Kang, Kyoung-Tak; Chang, Bong-Soon; Lee, Choon-Ki; Yeom, Jin S

    2016-05-01

    Pain catastrophizing is a key variable that contributes to disability not only in chronic pain disorders but also after trauma. However, there is little evidence concerning the effect of catastrophizing on pain intensity and disability after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the contribution of catastrophizing to disability and pain intensity after osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. We analyzed 35 patients with acute single-level osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures within 3 days of trauma. Data on demographics, education level, Charlson comorbidity index, pain catastrophizing scale (PCS) score, visual analog scale (VAS) score for back pain, and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) were collected. VAS score for back pain and ODI were assessed at enrollment as well as at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after fracture. Each VAS score for back pain and ODI significantly improved compared to the initial values (P osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. As the compression fracture heals, however, age is the critical determinant of disability. Copyright © 2016 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  8. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  9. Forest inventory, catastrophic events and historic geospatial assessments in the south

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis M. Jacobs

    2007-01-01

    Catastrophic events are a regular occurrence of disturbance to forestland in the Southern United States. Each major event affects the integrity of the forest inventory database developed and maintained by the Forest Inventory & Analysis Research Work Unit of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Some of these major disturbances through the years have...

  10. A Ensaistica de Robert Kurz: Catastrofismo e Lucidez (The Essays of Robert Kurz: Catastrophism and Lucidity).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Jose Carlos

    2000-01-01

    Uses an interpretive approach to the work of Robert Kurz, a German sociologist/essayist whose work has been translated and published in Brazil and who has advanced an apparently "catastrophic thesis" regarding the collapse of the "goods-producing society," or hyperdeveloped capitalism. (BT)

  11. Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

    2017-01-01

    To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

  12. Price and Welfare Effects of Catastrophic Forest Damage from Southern Pine Beetle Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes

    1991-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) epidemics are periodically responsible for catastrophic levels of mortality to southern yellow pine forests. Traditional forest damage appraisal techniques developed for site specific economic analysis are theoretically weak since they do not consider aggregate impacts across ecosystems and related markets. Because the...

  13. Ecological effects of large fires on US landscapes: benefit or catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; James K. Agee; Peter Fule; Jon E. Keeley; Carl Key; Stanley G. Kitchen; Richard Miller; Lisa A. Schulte

    2008-01-01

    The perception is that today's large fires are an ecological catastrophe because they burn vast areas with high intensities and severities. However, little is known of the ecological impacts of large fires on both historical and contemporary landscapes. The present paper presents a review of the current knowledge of the effects of large fires in the United States...

  14. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  15. Catastrophic windthrow in the Southern Appalachians: characteristics of pits and mounds and initial vegetation responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton D. Clinton; Corey R. Baker

    2000-01-01

    We characterized pit and mound (PM) topography resulting from catastrophic wind in the Coweeta Basin, and located 48 PM’s across a variety of forest types. Our measurements included pit length, width, and depth; and mound height, thickness, and width. Species of fallen trees were...

  16. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

    2009-01-01

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  17. Modeling demand for catastrophic flood risk insurance in Vietnam using choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Bui, T.; Tuan, T.; Magnussen, K.; Navrud, S.

    2014-01-01

    In a choice experiment, households in Vietnam are offered flood insurance to mitigate increasing catastrophic flood risks due to climate change. Participants are asked to choose their most preferred insurance policy given expected future flood and mortality risks, insurance cover and associated

  18. Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

    2017-08-29

    The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

  19. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    -event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...

  20. Catastrophic injuries in pole vaulters: a prospective 9-year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P; Boden, Matthew G; Peter, Rebecca G; Mueller, Fred O; Johnson, Jan E

    2012-07-01

    A prior review of catastrophic pole vaulting injuries from 1982 through 1998 revealed an average of 2.0 injuries per year, with 69% (1.38 per year) of the injuries secondary to athletes landing off the sides or back of the landing pad and 25% (0.5 per year) from athletes landing in the vault box. In 2003, several rule changes for the sport of pole vaulting were mandated, including enlarging the minimum dimensions of the landing pad. Our goals were to (1) identify the post-2003 rule change incidence and profile of catastrophic pole vaulting injuries through 2011 and compare them, where possible, with the prior incidence and profile and (2) determine, via a questionnaire, the frequency with which pole vaulters land in the vault box. We hypothesized that the new, larger landing pads would reduce the number of catastrophic injuries. Descriptive epidemiology study. We prospectively reviewed all catastrophic pole vaulting injuries (ie, brain hemorrhage; skull, spine, or pelvic fracture; substantial pulmonary or intra-abdominal injury) in the United States from 2003 through 2011, surveyed 3335 pole vaulters to determine the frequency of landing in the vault box, and compared results with those in the literature. From 2003 to 2011, 19 catastrophic injuries occurred (average of 2.1 per year), with the majority (n = 14, 74%, 1.55 per year) landing in or around the vault box. Four (21%, 0.44 per year) injuries occurred when an athlete landed off the sides or back of the landing pad and 1 (5%) when the pole broke. There were 11 (58%) major head injuries (1 fatality), 4 (21%) spine fractures (1 with paraplegia), 2 (11%) pelvic fractures (both with intra-abdominal injuries), 1 (5%) brain stem injury (fatal), and 1 (5%) thoracic injury (rib fractures and pneumothorax). The annual fatality rate fell from 1.0 in the prior study to 0.22 in the current study. According to the pole vaulters survey, during their careers, 77.12% (n = 2572) landed in the vault box 1 to 3 times, 15.92% (n

  1. Basic mechanisms of catastrophic epilepsy – overview from animal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanopoulou, Aristea S.

    2013-01-01

    Infantile spasms are age-specific seizures of infantile epileptic encephalopathies that are usually associated with poor epilepsy and neurodevelopmental outcomes. The current treatments are not always effective and may be associated with significant side effects. Various mechanisms have been proposed as pathogenic for infantile spasms, including cortical or brainstem dysfunction, disruption of normal cortical-subcortical communications, genetic defects, inflammation, stress, developmental abnormalities. Many of these have been recently tested experimentally, resulting into the emergence of several animal models of infantile spasms. The stress theory of spasms yielded the corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) induced model, which showed the higher proconvulsant potency of CRH in developing rats, although only limbic seizures were observed. Models of acute induction of infantile spasms in rodents include the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) model of emprosthotonic seizures, the prenatal betamethasone and prenatal stress variants of the NMDA model, and the γ-butyrolactone induced spasms in a Down’s syndrome mouse model. Chronic rodent models of infantile spasms include the tetrodotoxin model and the multiple-hit models in rats, as well as two genetic mouse models of interneuronopathies with infantile spasms due to loss of function of the aristaless X-linked homeobox related gene (ARX). This review discusses the emerging mechanisms for generation of infantile spasms and their associated chronic epileptic and dyscognitive phenotype as well as the recent progress in identifying pathways to better treat this epileptic encephalopathy. PMID:23312951

  2. Illness perceptions in patients with fibromyalgia and their relationship to quality of life and catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, C Paul; van Ittersum, Miriam W; Kaptein, Ad A; van Wijhe, Marten

    2008-11-01

    In the last decade, illness perceptions have been identified as important in the treatment of fibromyalgia (FM). The aim of the present study was to examine illness perceptions and use of the revised Illness Perception Questionnaire in patients with FM (IPQ-R-FM) and their relationship to quality of life and catastrophizing. A domain with specific causal attributions related to FM was added to the IPQ-R-FM. The psychometric properties of the IPQ-R-FM dimensions and attribution scales were examined. The causal domain, in which patients describe the most important perceived causes for their FM, was analyzed. To analyze the relationship with quality of life and catastrophizing, the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale were used. Fifty-one outpatients completed the questionnaires on 2 occasions, 3 weeks apart. FM was considered to be chronic and to have serious consequences; patients perceived little personal control and did not expect medical treatment to be effective. The psychometric properties of the IPQ-R-FM were found to be adequate. Patients most frequently attributed the causes of FM to an external somatic source (58%). Quality of life was related to experiencing more consequences attributable to FM. Catastrophizing was related to a limited understanding of the symptoms of FM, the more cyclical nature of FM, and an emotional representation. The IPQ-R-FM is a useful tool to assess illness perceptions in patients with FM. Illness perceptions are related to quality of life and catastrophizing; therefore, it seems important to assess and integrate illness perceptions into the management of patients with FM.

  3. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.

    1996-03-01

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  4. Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in high school and college football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P; Tacchetti, Robin L; Cantu, Robert C; Knowles, Sarah B; Mueller, Frederick O

    2006-08-01

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in football are rare but tragic events. To update the incidence of catastrophic cervical injuries in scholastic football players and identify new injury patterns. Descriptive epidemiology study. The authors retrospectively reviewed 196 incidents of catastrophic high school and collegiate football injuries reported to the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research during 13 academic years (September 1989 through June 2002). There were 15.08 direct catastrophic cervical spine injuries in scholastic football participants per year, an incidence of 1.10 and 4.72 injuries per 100 000 high school and 100 000 college participants, respectively. Seventy-six athletes had quadriplegia (5.85 per year), 0.50 per 100 000 high school players and 0.82 per 100 000 college players. Spear tackling by players on defense continued to be the predominant mechanism of injury causing quadriplegia. Five athletes had a Brown-Séquard-like syndrome; only 1 made a full recovery. One athlete with Brown-Séquard-like syndrome and permanent neurologic symptoms reported a cervical cord neurapraxia event before the study period. Forty-three athletes (3.31 per year) had diagnosed cervical cord neurapraxia. In addition to hyperflexion and hyperextension injuries, axial forces were found to cause cervical cord neurapraxia. Sixteen of the 43 athletes returned to football after a cervical cord neurapraxia episode, and none of the 16 suffered a permanent quadriplegic event. Nine athletes sustained an isolated injury at the C1 or C2 level, and 7 sustained a combined injury at the C1, or C2 level and at a subaxial level. The total number of quadriplegic events for high school and college football players is approximately 6 per year, with a higher incidence at the college level. Cervical cord neurapraxia can be caused by hyperflexion, hyperextension, and axial compression forces. Upper level cervical injuries involving the atlas and axis can occur in

  5. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, C. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.; O'Loughlin, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. B.; Freer, J. E.; Cloke, H. L.

    2014-06-01

    Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and

  6. Mothers' and fathers' responses to their child's pain moderate the relationship between the child's pain catastrophizing and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervoort, T; Huguet, A; Verhoeven, K; Goubert, L

    2011-04-01

    Preliminary evidence suggests that pain catastrophizing in children may be important in understanding how parents respond to their child's pain. However, no study has investigated whether parental responses, in turn, moderate the impact of child's catastrophizing upon pain outcomes. The present study was designed to address this, and investigated the association of the child's catastrophizing with different types of parental responses (ie, solicitousness, discouragement and coping promoting responses) and the extent to which parental responses moderate the association between the child's catastrophizing and disability. Participants were 386 school children and their parents. Analyses revealed significant associations between the child's pain catastrophizing and parental responses, but with mothers and fathers evidencing different patterns; ie, higher levels of the child's catastrophizing were significantly associated with lower levels of solicitousness by fathers, and with higher levels of discouragement by mothers. Moderation analyses indicated that father's solicitiousness moderated the association between catastrophizing and disability; the positive association between catastrophizing and the child's disability was further strengthened when fathers reported low levels of solicitousness, but became less pronounced when fathers reported high levels of solicitousness. Findings also revealed a moderating impact of mothers' and fathers' promotion of their child's well behaviour/coping. Specifically, the detrimental impact of child catastrophizing upon disability was less pronounced when parents reported high promotion of their child's well behaviours/coping. The findings of the present study suggest the importance of assessing and targeting parental responses to their child's pain to alter the adverse impact of the child's pain catastrophizing on pain outcomes. Copyright © 2010 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights

  7. Tidal Venuses: triggering a climate catastrophe via tidal heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Rory; Mullins, Kristina; Goldblatt, Colin; Meadows, Victoria S; Kasting, James F; Heller, René

    2013-03-01

    Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets "Tidal Venuses" and the phenomenon a "tidal greenhouse." Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ). However, these planets are not habitable, as past tidal heating desiccated them, and hence should not be ranked highly for detailed follow-up observations aimed at detecting biosignatures. We simulated the evolution of hypothetical planetary systems in a quasi-continuous parameter distribution and found that we could constrain the history of the system by statistical arguments. Planets orbiting stars with massesplanet orbiting a 0.3 MSun star at 0.12 AU. We found that it probably did not lose its water via tidal heating, as orbital stability is unlikely for the high eccentricities required for the tidal greenhouse. As the inner edge of the HZ is defined by the onset of a runaway or moist greenhouse powered by radiation, our results represent a fundamental revision to the HZ for noncircular orbits. In the appendices we review (a) the moist and runaway greenhouses, (b) hydrogen escape, (c) stellar mass-radius and mass-luminosity relations, (d) terrestrial planet mass-radius relations, and (e) linear tidal theories.

  8. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  9. Tidal Venuses: Triggering a Climate Catastrophe via Tidal Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullins, Kristina; Goldblatt, Colin; Meadows, Victoria S.; Kasting, James F.; Heller, René

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets “Tidal Venuses” and the phenomenon a “tidal greenhouse.” Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ). However, these planets are not habitable, as past tidal heating desiccated them, and hence should not be ranked highly for detailed follow-up observations aimed at detecting biosignatures. We simulated the evolution of hypothetical planetary systems in a quasi-continuous parameter distribution and found that we could constrain the history of the system by statistical arguments. Planets orbiting stars with massestidal heating. We have applied these concepts to Gl 667C c, a ∼4.5 MEarth planet orbiting a 0.3 MSun star at 0.12 AU. We found that it probably did not lose its water via tidal heating, as orbital stability is unlikely for the high eccentricities required for the tidal greenhouse. As the inner edge of the HZ is defined by the onset of a runaway or moist greenhouse powered by radiation, our results represent a fundamental revision to the HZ for noncircular orbits. In the appendices we review (a) the moist and runaway greenhouses, (b) hydrogen escape, (c) stellar mass-radius and mass-luminosity relations, (d) terrestrial planet mass-radius relations, and (e) linear tidal theories. Key Words: Extrasolar terrestrial planets—Habitability—Habitable zone

  10. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  11. Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

    2017-01-18

    Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

  12. Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

    2015-05-01

    Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

  13. Socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment associated with non-communicable diseases in urban Hanoi, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kien, Vu Duy; Van Minh, Hoang; Giang, Kim Bao; Dao, Amy; Tuan, Le Thanh; Ng, Nawi

    2016-10-13

    The catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment indices offer guidance for developing appropriate health policies and intervention programs to decrease financial inequity. This study assesses socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in relation to self-reported non-communicable diseases (NCD) in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to March 2013 in Hanoi, the capital city of Vietnam. We estimated catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment using information from 492 slum household and 528 non-slum households. We calculated concentration indexes to assess socioeconomic inequalities in catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment. Factors associated with catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment were modelled using logistic regression analysis. The poor households in both slum and non-slum areas were at higher risk of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure, while only the poor households in slum areas were at higher risk of impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Households with at least one member reporting an NCD were significantly more likely to face catastrophic health expenditure (odds ratio [OR] = 2.4; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.8-4.0) and impoverishment (OR = 2.3; 95 % CI, 1.1-6.3) compared to households without NCDs. In addition, households in slum areas, with people age 60 years and above, and belonging to the poorest socioeconomic group were significantly associated with increased catastrophic health expenditure, while only households that lived in slum areas, and belonging to the poor or poorest socioeconomic groups were significantly associated with increased impoverishment because of healthcare spending. Financial interventions to prevent catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment should target poor households, especially those with family members suffering from NCDs, with older members and those located in slum

  14. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-08

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando; Allan Lavell

    2012-01-01

    Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact) aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact). Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécher...

  16. Error catastrophe and phase transition in the empirical fitness landscape of HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Gregory R; Ferguson, Andrew L

    2015-03-01

    We have translated clinical sequence databases of the p6 HIV protein into an empirical fitness landscape quantifying viral replicative capacity as a function of the amino acid sequence. We show that the viral population resides close to a phase transition in sequence space corresponding to an "error catastrophe" beyond which there is lethal accumulation of mutations. Our model predicts that the phase transition may be induced by drug therapies that elevate the mutation rate, or by forcing mutations at particular amino acids. Applying immune pressure to any combination of killer T-cell targets cannot induce the transition, providing a rationale for why the viral protein can exist close to the error catastrophe without sustaining fatal fitness penalties due to adaptive immunity.

  17. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  18. New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gareev, Fangil

    2008-03-01

    We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

  19. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  20. Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

    2017-11-01

    The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

  1. The decline and rise of coronary heart disease: understanding public health catastrophism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, David S; Greene, Jeremy A

    2013-07-01

    The decline of coronary heart disease mortality in the United States and Western Europe is one of the great accomplishments of modern public health and medicine. Cardiologists and cardiovascular epidemiologists have devoted significant effort to disease surveillance and epidemiological modeling to understand its causes. One unanticipated outcome of these efforts has been the detection of early warnings that the decline had slowed, plateaued, or even reversed. These subtle signs have been interpreted as evidence of an impending public health catastrophe. This article traces the history of research on coronary heart disease decline and resurgence and situates it in broader narratives of public health catastrophism. Juxtaposing the coronary heart disease literature alongside the narratives of emerging and reemerging infectious disease helps to identify patterns in how public health researchers create data and craft them into powerful narratives of progress or pessimism. These narratives, in turn, shape public health policy.

  2. Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

    2016-01-01

    The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre-1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post-storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching......, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier-island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post-storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which...... resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present-day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic...

  3. The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonaki, Yotetsu

    2016-01-01

    The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

  4. iASPP and chemoresistance in ovarian cancers: effects on paclitaxel-mediated mitotic catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lili; Siu, Michelle K Y; Wong, Oscar G W; Tam, Kai-Fai; Lu, Xin; Lam, Eric W-F; Ngan, Hextan Y S; Le, Xiao-Feng; Wong, Esther S Y; Monteiro, Lara J; Chan, Hoi-Yan; Cheung, Annie N Y

    2011-11-01

    iASPP is a specific regulator of p53-mediated apoptosis. Herein, we provided the first report on the expression profile of iASPP in ovarian epithelial tumor and its effect on paclitaxel chemosensitivity. Expression and amplification status of iASPP was examined in 203 clinical samples and 17 cell lines using immunohistochemistry, quantitative real-time PCR, and immunoblotting, and correlated with clinicopathologic parameters. Changes in proliferation, mitotic catastrophe, apoptosis, and underlying mechanism in ovarian cancer cells of different p53 status following paclitaxel exposure were also analyzed. The protein and mRNA expression of iASPP was found to be significantly increased in ovarian cancer samples and cell lines. High iASPP expression was significantly associated with clear cell carcinoma subtype (P = 0.003), carboplatin and paclitaxel chemoresistance (P = 0.04), shorter overall (P = 0.003), and disease-free (P = 0.001) survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed iASPP expression as an independent prognostic factor. Increased iASPP mRNA expression was significantly correlated with gene amplification (P = 0.023). iASPP overexpression in ovarian cancer cells conferred resistance to paclitaxel by reducing mitotic catastrophe in a p53-independent manner via activation of separase, whereas knockdown of iASPP enhanced paclitaxel-mediated mitotic catastrophe through inactivating separase. Both securin and cyclin B1/CDK1 complex were involved in regulating separase by iASPP. Conversely, overexpressed iASPP inhibited apoptosis in a p53-dependent mode. Our data show an association of iASPP overexpression with gene amplification in ovarian cancer and suggest a role of iASPP in poor patient outcome and chemoresistance, through blocking mitotic catastrophe. iASPP should be explored further as a potential prognostic marker and target for chemotherapy. ©2011 AACR

  5. Dedicated Work Opportunities of Municipal CHP Blocks in a Catastrophic Failure of the Power System State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ireneusz Grządzielski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Under conditions of a catastrophic system failure developing, in the Polish Power System (PPS, the creation of island systems powered by municipal CHP generating units may be one way to maintain the units’ production capacity. Block island load system BC 50 could create own and general EC Karolin and industrial plants located in the immediate vicinity of the thermal-electric power station receipts.

  6. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorre, H.

    1992-01-01

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  7. Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

  8. Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Assilzadeh, Hamid; Levy, Jason K.; Wang, Xin

    2010-01-01

    As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disaster...

  9. Subamolide A Induces Mitotic Catastrophe Accompanied by Apoptosis in Human Lung Cancer Cells

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Jen-Yu; Wen, Ching-Wen; Hsu, Ya-Ling; Lin, En-Shyh; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Chen, Chung-Yi; Kuo, Po-Lin

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the anticancer effects of subamolide A (Sub-A), isolated from Cinnamomum subavenium, on human nonsmall cell lung cancer cell lines A549 and NCI-H460. Treatment of cancer cells with Sub-A resulted in decreased cell viability of both lung cancer cell lines. Sub-A induced lung cancer cell death by triggering mitotic catastrophe with apoptosis. It triggered oxidant stress, indicated by increased cellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and decreased glutathione le...

  10. Leave none to claim the land: aMalthusian catastrophe in Rwanda?

    OpenAIRE

    Verpoorten, Marijke

    2011-01-01

    More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified form. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure, natural resource scarcity, and conflict as well as its dependency on the socio-political and economic context. This softened version of Malthus' thesis has received little empirical support in cross-country studies. In contrast, a num...

  11. Leave None to Claim the Land. A Malthusian Catastrophe in Rwanda?

    OpenAIRE

    Verpoorten, Marijke

    2011-01-01

    More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified firm. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure , natural resource scarcity, and conflict as well as its dependency on the socio-political and economic context. This softened version of Mathus' thesis has received little emphirical support in cross-country studies. In contrast, a nu...

  12. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact. Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécheresse et au gel, ayant affectés le Chaco bolivien. Par ailleurs, cet article vise à montrer en quoi une analyse des facteurs de causalité et des impacts post-catastrophe déjà connus est nécessaire. Ces notions sont souvent associées aux aléas à grande échelle pouvant survenir brutalement, mais elles occultent la compréhension des besoins lors de crises qui surviennent à causes d’aléas diffus, extensifs, liés aux styles de vie. Il s’agit également de révéler en quoi les tentatives d’appréhender les catégories successives de risques, apparemment séquencées, en utilisant des mécanismes et des cadres institutionnels indépendants, sont vouées à l’échec. De fait, des relations existent entre risques principaux, risques contingents et risques futurs, et la gestion des risques de catastrophe ainsi que les mécanismes de développement nécessaires pour les réduire.

  13. Factors that determine catastrophic expenditure for tuberculosis care: a patient survey in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chengchao; Long, Qian; Chen, Jiaying; Xiang, Li; Li, Qiang; Tang, Shenglan; Huang, Fei; Sun, Qiang; Lucas, Henry

    2016-01-25

    Tuberculosis (TB) often causes catastrophic economic effects on both the individual suffering the disease and their households. A number of studies have analyzed patient and household expenditure on TB care, but there does not appear to be any that have assessed the incidence, intensity and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) relating to TB care in China. That will be the objective of this paper. The data used for this study were derived from the baseline survey of the China Government - Gates Foundation TB Phase II program. Our analysis included 747 TB cases. Catastrophic health expenditure for TB care was estimated using two approaches, with households defined as experiencing CHE if their annual expenditure on TB care: (a) exceeded 10 % of total household income; and (b) exceeded 40 % of their non-food expenditure (capacity to pay). Chi-square tests were used to identify associated factors and logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of CHE. The incidence of CHE was 66.8 % using the household income measure and 54.7 % using non-food expenditure (capacity to pay). An inverse association was observed between CHE rates and household income level. Significant determinants of CHE were: age, household size, employment status, health insurance status, patient income as a percentage of total household income, hospitalization and status as a minimum living security household. Factors including gender, marital status and type of TB case had no significant associations with CHE. Catastrophic health expenditure incidence from TB care is high in China. An integrated policy expanding the free treatment package and ensuring universal coverage, especially the height of UHC for TB patients, is needed. Financial and social protection interventions are essential for identified at-risk groups.

  14. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  15. The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

    OpenAIRE

    Gatti, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

  16. Catastrophizing and anxiety sensitivity mediate the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, E Amy; Jones, Elizabeth; Hopkins, Christina M; Ruggieri, Madelyn; Hruska, Alesha

    2016-08-01

    Stress-induced or "emotional eating" contributes to increased caloric intake and weight gain, yet models examining psychosocial factors that promote and sustain this behavior are incomplete. There is a need to identify explicit, clinically-relevant mechanisms of emotional eating behavior. Pain is a common stressor associated with increased weight and, potentially, altered eating behaviors. The present study applies the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM) of pain to examine processes that may explain the relationship between pain and increased weight while also providing the opportunity to examine specific mechanisms that may encourage eating during a variety of stressors. Our aim is to better understand the impact of pain on eating behavior and the potential for the FAM to improve our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that promote eating during times of duress. A survey of 312 adults explored the link between pain experience and stress-induced eating, further examining the mediating effects of the psychological aspects of the FAM (e.g., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophizing, and pain-related fear). 24% of respondents reported persistent pain, and had significantly higher BMIs than their pain-free peers. All three FAM components were positively correlated with measures of emotional, external, and restrained eating. Anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing significantly mediated the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating behavior, while anxiety sensitivity alone mediated the relationship between persistent pain and external eating. Findings suggest pain may be associated with increased likelihood for emotional eating and that characteristics from FAM, in particular anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing, may mediate the relationship between the presence of persistent pain and emotional eating behavior. Evidence-based treatments targeting anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing could be useful to address emotional eating in individuals struggling

  17. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  18. Effects of Catastrophic Insect Outbreaks on the Harvesting Solutions of Dahurian Larch Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal harvesting under pest outbreak risk was studied on a set of even-aged Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii stands in northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. The effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks caused by the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus on the economic harvesting plan are compared through both deterministic and stochastic cases. Stand simulation is based on an individual-tree growth system. A scenario approach is applied when simulating the effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks. Insect damage is assumed to be a Poisson process with an average rate of 0.1 per year. One hundred scenarios of insect damage are created using the Poisson process to simulate the distribution of bare land value of each of the optimal regimes. Numerical results show that the optimal rotation is shortened with an increasing probability of a catastrophe. The average bare land values in the stochastic case are approximately 14.8% to 22.9% lower. Numbers of thinnings are decreased for most plots when seeking a highest bare land value, compared to the deterministic optima. If given a constant thinning rate, increasing risk-taking shortens the optimum rotation, as the model set used.

  19. Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

    2015-01-22

    Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

  20. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  1. Depletion of Paraspeckle Protein 1 Enhances Methyl Methanesulfonate-Induced Apoptosis through Mitotic Catastrophe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangjing Gao

    Full Text Available Previously, we have shown that paraspeckle protein 1 (PSPC1, a protein component of paraspeckles that was involved in cisplatin-induced DNA damage response (DDR, probably functions at the G1/S checkpoint. In the current study, we further examined the role of PSPC1 in another DNA-damaging agent, methyl methanesulfonate (MMS-induced DDR, in particular, focusing on MMS-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. First, it was found that MMS treatment induced the expression of PSPC1. While MMS treatment alone can induce apoptosis, depletion of PSPC1 expression using siRNA significantly increased the level of apoptosis following MMS exposure. In contrast, overexpressing PSPC1 decreased the number of apoptotic cells. Interestingly, morphological observation revealed that many of the MMS-treated PSPC1-knockdown cells contained two or more nuclei, indicating the occurrence of mitotic catastrophe. Cell cycle analysis further showed that depletion of PSPC1 caused more cells entering the G2/M phase, a prerequisite of mitosis catastrophe. On the other hand, over-expressing PSPC1 led to more cells accumulating in the G1/S phase. Taken together, these observations suggest an important role for PSPC1 in MMS-induced DDR, and in particular, depletion of PSPC1 can enhance MMS-induced apoptosis through mitotic catastrophe.

  2. Medical Reserve Corps Volunteers' Ability and Willingness to Report to Work for the Department of Health During Catastrophic Disasters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schechter, Shelly

    2007-01-01

    .... According to recent studies of paid healthcare professionals, approximately forty percent may be unable or unwilling to report to work during catastrophic disasters, but these questions have not yet...

  3. Ruminative and catastrophizing cognitive styles mediate the association between daily hassles and high anxiety in Hong Kong adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Siu Mui; Chan, Sau Kam; Kwok, Wai Wai

    2015-02-01

    This study assessed rumination, catastrophizing and daily hassles as predictors of anxiety when controlling for depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents reporting high anxiety. Adolescents aged 12-18 (N = 2,802, mean age of 14.9) completed the Screen For Child Anxiety-Related Emotional Disorders. With a total score of 30 as the cutoff, a group of high anxiety adolescents was identified (a prevalence rate of 28.02%). Path analyses results showed that amongst the high anxiety boys, catastrophizing but not rumination was a positive predictor of anxiety and it mediated the effects of daily hassles on anxiety. In the high anxiety girls, both rumination and catastrophizing predicted anxiety but only catastrophizing was the mediator between daily hassles and anxiety. It is suggested that such gender differences in cognitive responses styles should be considered in cognitive-behavioral therapeutic approaches designed to help adolescents showing high anxiety.

  4. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-04-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003, Blackout throughout the Northeast. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilities ...

  5. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Howard Street tunnel fire Baltimore City, Maryland -- July 18, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the tunnel fire in Baltimore, Maryland on July 18, 2001, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation system facilitie...

  6. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : Baltimore, MD - Howard Street Tunnel fire - July 18th, 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the earthquake in Northridge, : California on January 17, 1994, and is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on : transportation system ...

  7. Effects of catastrophic events on transportation system management and operations : August 2003 northeast blackout, Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    This report documents the actions taken by transportation agencies in response to the August 14, 2003 blackout that affected the Northeastern United States. It is part of a larger effort to examine the impacts of catastrophic events on transportation...

  8. The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

  9. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  10. Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spottiswoode Bruce

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS; the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study is to provide proof-of-concept for the development and testing of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Methods Two interlinked experimental studies will be conducted. Study 1 aims to objectively ascertain if neurophysiological changes occur in the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing, when catastrophizing FMS subjects are exposed to visuals of exercise activities. Study 2 aims to ascertain the preliminary efficacy and feasibility of exposure to visuals of exercise activities as a treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS subjects. Twenty subjects will be selected from a group of FMS patients attending the Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa and randomly allocated to either the VRET (intervention group or waiting list (control group. Baseline neurophysiological activity for subjects will be collected in study 1 using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. In study 2, clinical improvement in pain catastrophizing will be measured using fMRI (objective and the pain catastrophizing scale (subjective. Discussion The premise is if exposing FMS patients to visuals of various exercise activities trigger the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing; then as a treatment, repeated exposure to visuals of the exercise activities using a VRET program could possibly decrease exercise-related pain catastrophizing

  11. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

    1996-02-01

    The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

  12. Unravelling the Relationship Between Parent and Child PTSD and Pediatric Chronic Pain: the Mediating Role of Pain Catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, Alexandra; Soltani, Sabine; Pavlova, Maria; Noel, Melanie

    2018-02-01

    Clinically elevated rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms are found among many youth with chronic pain and their parents and are linked to worse child pain outcomes. Conceptual models of mutual maintenance in pediatric PTSD and chronic pain posit that child and parent pain catastrophizing are key mechanisms underlying this co-occurrence. To our knowledge, the current study is the first to examine child and parent pain catastrophizing as potential mediators in the child PTSD-child pain and parent PTSD-child pain relationships among a cohort of youth with chronic pain. One hundred two children (72.5% female, mean age=13.5 years), recruited from a tertiary level chronic pain program, and 1 of their parents participated. At intake, parents completed psychometrically sound self-report measures of PTSD symptoms and catastrophizing about child pain. Children completed self-report measures of PTSD symptoms, pain catastrophizing, pain interference, and pain intensity. Findings revealed that relationships between child PTSD and child pain as well as parent PTSD and child pain were mediated by child (but not parent) pain catastrophizing. This suggests that children's catastrophic thinking about pain may explain how child and parent PTSD symptoms influence children's experience of chronic pain and is a potential target in family-based interventions to improve pain and mental health outcomes. Consistent with conceptual models of co-occurring PTSD and chronic pain, children's catastrophic thinking about child pain mediated relationships between parent and child PTSD symptoms and child chronic pain outcomes. Child pain catastrophizing may be a fruitful target in interventions to improve children's chronic pain and mental health outcomes. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  14. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-12-01

    Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

  15. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

    2004-01-01

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  16. Game Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Game Theory is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in game theory. We hear their views on game theory, its aim, scope, use, the future direction of game theory and how their work fits in these respects....

  17. Game theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendricks, Vincent F.

    Game Theory is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in game theory. We hear their views on game theory, its aim, scope, use, the future direction of game theory and how their work fits in these respects....

  18. String theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan Hongmo.

    1987-10-01

    The paper traces the development of the String Theory, and was presented at Professor Sir Rudolf Peierls' 80sup(th) Birthday Symposium. The String theory is discussed with respect to the interaction of strings, the inclusion of both gauge theory and gravitation, inconsistencies in the theory, and the role of space-time. The physical principles underlying string theory are also outlined. (U.K.)

  19. String theory or field theory?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshakov, A.V.

    2002-01-01

    The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments, which are our concern in this review [ru

  20. Nonlinear dynamics and neo-piagetian theories in problem solving: perspectives on a new epistemology and theory development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios

    2011-04-01

    In this study, an attempt is made to integrate Nonlinear Dynamical Systems theory and neo-Piagetian theories applied to creative mental processes, such as problem solving. A catastrophe theory model is proposed, which implements three neo-Piagetian constructs as controls: the functional M-capacity as asymmetry and logical thinking and the degree of field dependence independence as bifurcation. Data from achievement scores of students in tenth grade physics were analyzed using dynamic difference equations and statistical regression techniques. The cusp catastrophe model proved superior comparing to the pre-post linear counterpart and demonstrated nonlinearity at the behavioral level. The nonlinear phenomenology, such as hysteresis effects and bifurcation, is explained by an analysis, which provides a causal interpretation via the mathematical theory of self-organization and thus building bridges between NDS-theory concepts and neo-Piagetian theories. The contribution to theory building is made, by also addressing the emerging philosophical, - ontological and epistemological- questions about the processes of problem solving and creativity.

  1. S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muriel Erent

    Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

  2. Catastrophic health expenditure among households with members with special diseases: A case study in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Ghobad; Safari, Hossein; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Qanbari, Laila; Farshadi, Salahadin; Qasri, Homan; Farhadifar, Fariba

    2017-01-01

    Background: One of the main goals of health systems is to protect people against financial risks associated with diseases that can be catastrophic for patients. In 2014, Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP) was implemented in Iran; one of the objectives of HSEP was to reduce out-of-pocket payments and provide more financial protection for people. Therefore, the present study aimed at exploring the likelihood of facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) among households with members suffering from dialysis, kidney transplant, or multiple sclerosis (MS) after the implementation of HSEP. Methods: A total number of 385 households were selected using stratified random sampling and were asked to complete the World Health Survey questionnaire through telephone conversations. As outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO), when household out-of-pocket expense for health services is ≥40% of its capacity to pay, then that household is considered to be facing CHE. Furthermore, determinants of CHE were identified using logistic regression. Results: The percentage of facing catastrophic health care expenditures for households with a MS, dialysis, and kidney transplant patient was 20.6%, 18.7%, and 13.8%, respectively. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that patient's economic status, level of education, supplementary insurance status, type of disease, multiple members with special diseases in the household, rural residence, use of inpatient, dental, and rehabilitation services were effective factors for determining the likelihood of facing CHE. Conclusion: Despite the implementation of HSEP, the percentage of CHE is still high for households that have members who suffer from special diseases. However, basic health insurance packages should be amended and more cost-sharing exemptions should be granted to provide more financial protection for the vulnerable households.

  3. Incidence and correlates of 'catastrophic' maternal health care expenditure in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonu, Sekhar; Bhushan, Indu; Rani, Manju; Anderson, Ian

    2009-11-01

    Using data from the 60(th) round of the National Sample Survey of India (2004), the study investigates the incidence and correlates of 'catastrophic' maternal expenditure (ME) in India. Data on ME come from 6879 births that took place during 365 days prior to the survey. The study adapts earlier definitions and methods for catastrophic total health care expenditure to measure 'catastrophic' ME as: (i) maternal health care expenditure more than 10% of the annual normative household consumption expenditure (ME-1), and (ii) maternal health care expenditure more than 40% of the annual 'capacity to pay' (ME-2). The 'capacity to pay' was derived by subtracting state-wise poverty-line household expenditure from household consumption expenditure. The average maternal expenditure varied by place of delivery: US dollar 9.5, US dollar 24.7 and US dollar 104.3 for birth at home, in a public facility and in a private facility, respectively. Sixteen per cent of households incurred ME of more than 10% of total household consumption expenditure (ME-1), while 51% households incurred ME of more than 40% of household 'capacity to pay' (ME-2). While incidence of ME-1 increased with income decile, the reverse was observed for ME-2, reflecting higher non-utilization of institutional maternal care and its non-affordability among poorer households. All the households from the poorest decile and 99% from the second poorest decile paid more than 40% of their capacity to pay. Multivariate regression results indicate that antenatal care and delivery care in private facilities increased the chances of ME-1 and ME-2 (P increase utilization of maternal services and reduce the financial distress associated with ME.

  4. Small Satellites Constellation for Monitoring of Natural and Man-made Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyarchuk, K.; Oraevsky, V.; Salikhov, R.; Danilkin, V.

    The possibility of creation a new conception of using the small satellites constellation arises today in connection with the development of the circuit technology for manufacturing real small space vehicles (SSV). Their low price allows to form the multi purpose satellite constellation. Such constellation is formed in frame of the Russian Federal space program till 2006. It is intended for monitoring of the natural (typhoons, hurricanes, eruptions of volcano etc.) and man-made (radioactive contamination etc.) catastrophes. The space segment will be designed and manufactured by Research Institute for Electromechanics Federal State Unitary Enterprise. The scientific instrumentation and program will be designed by IZMIRAN. Three types of SSV will be in the constellation: The high-altitude group is composed by 4 SV (200 kg each) and the low-altitude group consists of up to 12 SV (200 kg or 60 kg each). Parameters measured by the on-board information system are as follows: plasma composition, ionosphere altitude profile, UHF/VHF/HF noise factor, atmosphere glow, weather parameters, the Earth surface temperature, high-energy particles, magnetic field, electric field. The multi-spectrum instrumentation of remote sensing will be also mounted on vehicle. The first SV are scheduled to be launched to the sun-sinchronous orbit by ROCOT, STRELA or SHTEL launch- vehicles within 2005 - 2006. After realization of the first projects the system configuration can be changed.For example the multisatellite system can provide: - Short-term, intermediate term and long-term prognosis of earthquakes, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunami; - Monitoring of radioactive and other contaminations - Evaluation of extreme situations and consequences of catastrophes in regions; - Analysis of a condition of the equipment and pipelines of gas and oil complex, scattering of gas emissions in turbulent atmosphere, prediction of the probable man- made catastrophes; - Analysis of influence of solar activity on

  5. Declining incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby: 1996-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohu, Yoann; Julia, Marc; Bagate, Christian; Peyrin, Jean-Claude; Colonna, Jean-Pierre; Thoreux, Patricia; Pascal-Moussellard, Hugues

    2009-02-01

    To investigate the incidence and the risk factors of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby. Descriptive epidemiology study. The patients included had cervical spine injuries causing neurological disorder classified from the ASIA scale, grade A to D. A retrospective review of all cases that occurred between the 1996-1997 and the 2005-2006 seasons was made. Circumstances of the injuries and of the clinical outcome were collected by interview. There were 37 cases of catastrophic cervical spine injuries in French rugby for the last 10 years. The incidence of the cervical spine injuries decreased during this period. The rates of injury were 2.1 per 100,000 players per year during the 1996-1997 season and 1.4 during the 2005-2006 season (P scrum was a major cause of injury, accounting for 51.3% (19/37). The forwards represented 89.2% (33/37) of the injured players. The hookers were involved in 37.8% (14/37) of the cases. The measures of prevention with the modification of the rules of scrum and the creation of a medical certificate required for players to play in the front row must have been successful. The incidence of disabling cervical spine injuries in French rugby has decreased for the last 10 years, which is linked to the decreasing incidence of injuries in the scrum. This epidemiological study shows the effectiveness of the preventive measures on cervical spine injuries in French rugby players. A national register of catastrophic cervical spine injuries extends our epidemiological observations.

  6. Contribution of kinesophobia and catastrophic thinking to upper-extremity-specific disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das De, Soumen; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria; Ring, David C

    2013-01-02

    Upper-extremity-specific disability correlates with mood and coping strategies. The aim of this study was to determine if two psychological factors, kinesiophobia (fear of movement) and perceived partner support, contribute significantly to variation in upper-extremity-specific disability in a model that included factors known to contribute to variation such as depression, pain anxiety, and catastrophic thinking. We performed an observational cross-sectional study of 319 patients who each had one of the following conditions: trigger finger (n = 94), carpal tunnel syndrome (n = 29), trapeziometacarpal arthrosis (n = 33), Dupuytren contracture (n = 31), de Quervain syndrome (n = 28), wrist ganglion cyst (n = 32), lateral epicondylosis (n = 41), and a fracture of the distal part of the radius treated nonoperatively six weeks previously (n = 31). Each patient completed the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire and questionnaires measuring symptoms of depression, pain anxiety, catastrophic thinking, kinesiophobia, and perceived level of support from a partner or significant other. Stepwise multiple linear regression was used to determine significant independent predictors of the DASH score. Men had significantly lower (better) DASH scores than women (21 versus 31; p thinking (p thinking, and kinesiophobia and accounted for 55% of the variation. In this sample, kinesiophobia and catastrophic thinking were the most important predictors of upper-extremity-specific disability in a model that accounted for symptoms of depression, anxiety, and pathophysiology (diagnosis) and explained more than half of the variation in disability. Perceived partner support was not a significant factor. The consistent and predominant role of several modifiable psychological factors in disability suggests that patients may benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that optimizes mindset and coping strategies.

  7. Does User Fee Removal Policy Provide Financial Protection from Catastrophic Health Care Payments? Evidence from Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Masiye

    Full Text Available Out-of-pocket payments in health care have been shown to impose significant burden on households in Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to constrained access to health care and impoverishment. In an effort to reduce the financial burden imposed on households by user fees, some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have abolished user fees in the health sector. Zambia is one of few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to abolish user fees in primary health care facilities with a view to alleviating financial burden of out-of-pocket payments among the poor. The main aim of this paper was to examine the extent and patterns of financial protection from fees following the decision to abolish user fees in public primary health facilities.Our analysis is based on a nationally representative health expenditure and utilization survey conducted in 2014. We calculated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure based on households' out-of-pocket payments during a visit as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure. We further show the intensity of the problem of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE experienced by households.Our analysis show that following the removal of user fees, a majority of patients who visited public health facilities benefitted from free care at the point of use. Further, seeking care at public primary health facilities is associated with a reduced likelihood of incurring CHE after controlling for economic wellbeing and other covariates. However, 10% of households are shown to suffer financial catastrophe as a result of out-of-pocket payments. Further, there is considerable inequality in the incidence of CHE whereby the poorest expenditure quintile experienced a much higher incidence.Despite the removal of user fees at primary health care level, CHE is high among the poorest sections of the population. This study also shows that cost of transportation is mainly responsible for limiting the protective effectiveness of

  8. Changes in catastrophic health expenditure in post-conflict Sierra Leone: an Oaxaca-blinder decomposition analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edoka, Ijeoma; McPake, Barbara; Ensor, Tim; Amara, Rogers; Edem-Hotah, Joseph

    2017-09-04

    At the end of the eleven-year conflict in Sierra Leone, a wide range of policies were implemented to address both demand- and supply-side constraints within the healthcare system, which had collapsed during the conflict. This study examines the extent to which households' exposure to financial risks associated with seeking healthcare evolved in post-conflict Sierra Leone. This study uses the 2003 and 2011 cross-sections of the Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey to examine changes in catastrophic health expenditure between 2003 and 2011. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach is used to quantify the extent to which changes in catastrophic health expenditure are attributable to changes in the distribution of determinants (distributional effect) and to changes in the impact of these determinants on the probability of incurring catastrophic health expenditure (coefficient effect). The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure decreased significantly by 18% from approximately 50% in 2003 t0 32% in 2011. The decomposition analysis shows that this decrease represents net effects attributable to the distributional and coefficient effects of three determinants of catastrophic health expenditure - ill-health, the region in which households reside and the type of health facility used. A decrease in the incidence of ill-health and changes in the regional location of households contributed to a decrease in catastrophic health expenditure. The distributional effect of health facility types observed as an increase in the use of public health facilities, and a decrease in the use of services in facilities owned by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) also contributed to a decrease in the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure. However, the coefficient effect of public health facilities and NGO-owned facilities suggests that substantial exposure to financial risk remained for households utilizing both types of health facilities in 2011. The findings support the

  9. Study of catastrophic phenomena on the Earth surface from board the ISS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekerzh-Zen'kovich, Sergey; Chebotarev, Alexander; Sarmin, Eric; Desinov, Lev; Yurina, Olga; Belyaev, Mikhail

    Monitoring of natural and technogenic catastrophes is one of the priority tasks of the Russian research program onboard the International Space Station. The Russian Segment crew uses photographic and video equipment and manual spectrometers for acquisition of scientific data on inundations, earthquakes, oil spillage, typhoons, fires and other hazardous natural and technogenic phenomena in the scope of "Uragan" experiment. Currently the cosmonauts use onboard spectrophotometrical system (SPMS) allowing to obtain color pictures and spectra of observed objects. The processing results obtained in 2012-2013 of a number of photos of glaciers, the ocean circular wave systems and also volcanic spectrograms are discussed in the report.

  10. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Radiology, Rouen (France); Blanc, Thierry [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Neonatal Medicine, Rouen (France); Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne [University Hospital of Rouen, Haematology Laboratory, Rouen (France)

    2006-08-15

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Blanc, Thierry; Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne

    2006-01-01

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  12. Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome and catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in a patient with antidomain I antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galland, Joris; Mohamed, Shirine; Revuz, Sabine; de Maistre, Emmanuel; de Laat, Bas; Marie, Pierre-Yves; Zuily, Stéphane; Lévy, Bruno; Regnault, Véronique; Wahl, Denis

    2016-07-01

    Lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome is a rare condition characterized by the association of acquired factor II deficiency and lupus anticoagulant. Contrary to classical antiphospholipid syndrome, it may cause severe life-threatening bleeding (89% of published cases). We report a patient, positive for antidomain I antibodies, with initially primary lupus anticoagulant-hypoprothrombinemia syndrome without previous clinical manifestation or underlying systemic disease. Five years later, he experienced the first systemic lupus erythematous flare. Within a few days, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney involvement. The patient recovered under pulse steroids, intravenous heparin and intravenous immunoglobulins.

  13. Tools for Texts Monitoring and Analysis Aimed at the Field of Social Disasters, Catastrophes, and Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana Cojocaru

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Throughout its life mankind faces various disasters and catastrophes: natural, technogenic, social. One of the important sources of information for these situations is the huge volume of unstructured data available in the global information networks. In this study, we describe a tool set that includes methods for extracting relevant texts from the networks, their classification and analysis. Two stages are described: preparatory and processing. The first one deals with patterns (texts and keywords creation, during the second phase news texts are processed using database and controlled vocabulary.

  14. Computer aid in rescue organisation on site in case of catastrophic situation on nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teissier, M.

    1992-01-01

    The rescue organisation in case of catastrophic situation is based on known principles: creation of medical buffer structures between hazard spot where injured people are being collected and rear hospitals, triage of victims as urgent casualties. We will propose computer aid in order to value the time used to prepare and evacuate all the victims from the site, knowing inventory of available means, waiting periods and lengths of intervention, types and number of victims. Thus, it is possible to optimize the former organisation, qualitatively and quantitatively to improve efficiency in rescuing operations. (author)

  15. Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) Charger: Spacesuit Battery Charger Design with 2-Fault Tolerance to Catastrophic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Davies, Frank

    2009-01-01

    Charger design that is 2-fault tolerant to catastrophic has been achieved for the Spacesuit Li-ion Battery with key features. Power supply control circuit and 2 microprocessors independently control against overcharge. 3 microprocessor control against undercharge (false positive: Go for EVA) conditions. 2 independent channels provide functional redundancy. Capable of charge balancing cell banks in series. Cell manufacturing and performance uniformity is excellent with both designs. Once a few outliers are removed, LV cells are slightly more uniform than MoliJ cells. If cell balance feature of charger is ever invoked, it will be an indication of a significant degradation issue, not a nominal condition.

  16. A comprehensive model of catastrophic optical-damage in broad-area laser diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, A. K.; Bertaska, R. K.; Jaspan, M. A.; Flusberg, A. M.; Swartz, S. D.; Knapczyk, M. T.; Petr, R.; Smilanski, I.; Jacob, J. H.

    2009-02-01

    The present model of formation and propagation of catastrophic optical-damage (COD), a random failure-mode in laser diodes, was formulated in 1974 and has remained substantially unchanged. We extend the model of COD phenomena, based on analytical studies involving EBIC (electron-beam induced current), STEM (scanning transmission-electron microscopy) and sophisticated optical-measurements. We have determined that a ring-cavity mode, whose presence has not been previously reported, significantly contributes to COD initiation and propagation in broad-area laser-diodes.

  17. Catastrophic optical mirror damage in diode lasers monitored during single-pulse operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zegler, M.; Tomm, J.W.; Reeber, D.

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophic optical mirror damage (COMD) is analyzed for 808 nm emitting diode lasers in single-pulse operation in order to separate facet degradation from subsequent degradation processes. During each pulse, nearfield and thermal images are monitored. A temporal resolution better than 7 µs...... is achieved. The thermal runaway process is unambiguously related to the occurrence of a “thermal flash.” A one-by-one correlation between nearfield, thermal flash, thermal runaway, and structural damage is observed. The single-pulse excitation technique allows for controlling the propagation...

  18. La relocalisation des familles victimes de catastrophes naturelles à Port-au-Prince

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilionor Louis

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the relocation of populations affected by natural disasters in Haiti, and focuses on the precarious living conditions before and after disasters. Five cases are analyzed, including two before the earthquake of January 12, 2010 and three after. These cases are select-ed not only from a comparison across cases but in a perspective of anal-ysis between the situation before and after the catastrophe which has definitely contributed to a reconfiguration of the neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince.

  19. Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

    2017-11-01

    This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

  20. Supergravity theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uehara, S.

    1985-01-01

    Of all supergravity theories, the maximal, i.e., N = 8 in 4-dimension or N = 1 in 11-dimension, theory should perform the unification since it owns the highest degree of symmetry. As to the N = 1 in d = 11 theory, it has been investigated how to compactify to the d = 4 theories. From the phenomenological point of view, local SUSY GUTs, i.e., N = 1 SUSY GUTs with soft breaking terms, have been studied from various angles. The structures of extended supergravity theories are less understood than those of N = 1 supergravity theories, and matter couplings in N = 2 extended supergravity theories are under investigation. The harmonic superspace was recently proposed which may be useful to investigate the quantum effects of extended supersymmetry and supergravity theories. As to the so-called Kaluza-Klein supergravity, there is another possibility. (Mori, K.)

  1. Topos theory

    CERN Document Server

    Johnstone, PT

    2014-01-01

    Focusing on topos theory's integration of geometric and logical ideas into the foundations of mathematics and theoretical computer science, this volume explores internal category theory, topologies and sheaves, geometric morphisms, other subjects. 1977 edition.

  2. Agency Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linder, Stefan; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    2015-01-01

    Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting, and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex...... agency theory to enjoy considerable scientific impact on social science; however, it has also attracted considerable criticism....

  3. Agency Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linder, Stefan; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex a...... agency theory to enjoy considerable scientific impact on social science; however, it has also attracted considerable criticism.......Agency theory studies the problems and solutions linked to delegation of tasks from principals to agents in the context of conflicting interests between the parties. Beginning from clear assumptions about rationality, contracting and informational conditions, the theory addresses problems of ex...

  4. Atomic theories

    CERN Document Server

    Loring, FH

    2014-01-01

    Summarising the most novel facts and theories which were coming into prominence at the time, particularly those which had not yet been incorporated into standard textbooks, this important work was first published in 1921. The subjects treated cover a wide range of research that was being conducted into the atom, and include Quantum Theory, the Bohr Theory, the Sommerfield extension of Bohr's work, the Octet Theory and Isotopes, as well as Ionisation Potentials and Solar Phenomena. Because much of the material of Atomic Theories lies on the boundary between experimentally verified fact and spec

  5. Grounded theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Tina

    2015-04-29

    Grounded theory is a popular research approach in health care and the social sciences. This article provides a description of grounded theory methodology and its key components, using examples from published studies to demonstrate practical application. It aims to demystify grounded theory for novice nurse researchers, by explaining what it is, when to use it, why they would want to use it and how to use it. It should enable nurse researchers to decide if grounded theory is an appropriate approach for their research, and to determine the quality of any grounded theory research they read.

  6. Number theory via Representation theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-11-09

    Number theory via Representation theory. Eknath Ghate. November 9, 2014. Eightieth Annual Meeting, Chennai. Indian Academy of Sciences1. 1. This is a non-technical 20 minute talk intended for a general Academy audience.

  7. Medicare Beneficiaries Face Growing Out-Of-Pocket Burden For Specialty Drugs While In Catastrophic Coverage Phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trish, Erin; Xu, Jianhui; Joyce, Geoffrey

    2016-09-01

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) includes provisions to reduce Medicare beneficiaries' out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs by gradually closing the coverage gap between the initial coverage limit and the catastrophic coverage threshold (known as the doughnut hole) beginning in 2011. However, Medicare beneficiaries who take specialty pharmaceuticals could still face a large out-of-pocket burden because of uncapped cost sharing in the catastrophic coverage phase. Using 2008-12 pharmacy claims data from a 20 percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries, we analyzed trends in total and out-of-pocket spending among Medicare beneficiaries who take at least one high-cost specialty drug from the top eight specialty drug classes in terms of spending. Annual total drug spending per specialty drug user studied increased considerably during the study period, from $18,335 to $33,301, and the proportion of expenditures incurred while in the catastrophic coverage phase increased from 70 percent to 80 percent. We observed a 26 percent decrease in mean annual out-of-pocket expenditures incurred below the catastrophic coverage threshold, likely attributable to the ACA's doughnut hole cost-sharing reductions, but increases in mean annual out-of-pocket expenditures incurred while in the catastrophic coverage phase offset these reductions almost entirely. Policy makers should consider implementing limits on patients' out-of-pocket burden. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  8. Superstring theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    Dual string theories, initially developed as phenomenological models of hadrons, now appear more promising as candidates for a unified theory of fundamental interactions. Type I superstring theory (SST I), is a ten-dimensional theory of interacting open and closed strings, with one supersymmetry, that is free from ghosts and tachyons. It requires that an SO(eta) or Sp(2eta) gauge group be used. A light-cone-gauge string action with space-time supersymmetry automatically incorporates the superstring restrictions and leads to the discovery of type II superstring theory (SST II). SST II is an interacting theory of closed strings only, with two D=10 supersymmetries, that is also free from ghosts and tachyons. By taking six of the spatial dimensions to form a compact space, it becomes possible to reconcile the models with our four-dimensional perception of spacetime and to define low-energy limits in which SST I reduces to N=4, D=4 super Yang-Mills theory and SST II reduces to N=8, D=4 supergravity theory. The superstring theories can be described by a light-cone-gauge action principle based on fields that are functionals of string coordinates. With this formalism any physical quantity should be calculable. There is some evidence that, unlike any conventional field theory, the superstring theories provide perturbatively renormalizable (SST I) or finite (SST II) unifications of gravity with other interactions

  9. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  10. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrakov, D. A.; Chernomorets, S. S.; Evans, S. G.; Tutubalina, O. V.

    2008-04-01

    Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM) is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  11. Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

    1978-01-01

    Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

  12. Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2002-01-01

    We propose that catastrophic events are “outliers” with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. We describe a unifying approach for modeling and predicting these catastrophic events or “ruptures,” that is, sudden transitions from a quiescent state to a crisis. Such ruptures involve interactions between structures at many different scales. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence, and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes, and human parturition (birth). Future improvements will involve combining ideas and tools from statistical physics and artificial/computational intelligence, to identify and classify possible universal structures that occur at different scales, and to develop application-specific methodologies to use these structures for prediction of the “crises” known to arise in each application of interest. We live on a planet and in a society with intermittent dynamics rather than a state of equilibrium, and so there is a growing and urgent need to sensitize students and citizens to the importance and impacts of ruptures in their multiple forms. PMID:11875205

  13. Forecast for Artificial Muscle Tremor Behavior Based on Dynamic Additional Grey Catastrophe Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Fu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently, bio-inspired artificial muscles based on ionic polymers have shown a bright perspective in engineering and medical research, but the inherent tremor behavior can cause instability of output response. In this paper, dynamic additional grey catastrophe prediction (DAGCP is proposed to forecast the occurrence time of tremor behavior, providing adequate preparation time for the suppression of the chitosan-based artificial muscles. DAGCP constructs various dimensions of time subsequence models under different starting points based on the threshold of tremor occurrence times and peak-to-peak values in unit time. Next, the appropriate subsequence is selected according to grey correlation degree and prediction accuracy, then it is updated with the newly generated values to achieve a real-time forecast of forthcoming tremor time. Compared with conventional grey catastrophe prediction (GCP, the proposed method has the following advantages: (1 the degradation of prediction accuracy caused by the immobilization of original parameters is prevented; (2 the dynamic input, real-time update and gradual forecast of time sequence are incorporated into the model. The experiment results show that the novel DAGCP can predict forthcoming tremor time earlier and more accurately than the conventional GCP. The generation mechanism of tremor behavior is illustrated as well.

  14. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasilnikov, E. Yu.

    Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon) stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  15. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  16. CSL protein regulates transcription of genes required to prevent catastrophic mitosis in fission yeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Převorovský, Martin; Oravcová, Martina; Zach, Róbert; Jordáková, Anna; Bähler, Jürg; Půta, František; Folk, Petr

    2016-11-16

    For every eukaryotic cell to grow and divide, intricately coordinated action of numerous proteins is required to ensure proper cell-cycle progression. The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been instrumental in elucidating the fundamental principles of cell-cycle control. Mutations in S. pombe 'cut' (cell untimely torn) genes cause failed coordination between cell and nuclear division, resulting in catastrophic mitosis. Deletion of cbf11, a fission yeast CSL transcription factor gene, triggers a 'cut' phenotype, but the precise role of Cbf11 in promoting mitotic fidelity is not known. We report that Cbf11 directly activates the transcription of the acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase gene cut6, and the biotin uptake/biosynthesis genes vht1 and bio2, with the former 2 implicated in mitotic fidelity. Cbf11 binds to a canonical, metazoan-like CSL response element (GTGGGAA) in the cut6 promoter. Expression of Cbf11 target genes shows apparent oscillations during the cell cycle using temperature-sensitive cdc25-22 and cdc10-M17 block-release experiments, but not with other synchronization methods. The penetrance of catastrophic mitosis in cbf11 and cut6 mutants is nutrient-dependent. We also show that drastic decrease in biotin availability arrests cell proliferation but does not cause mitotic defects. Taken together, our results raise the possibility that CSL proteins play conserved roles in regulating cell-cycle progression, and they could guide experiments into mitotic CSL functions in mammals.

  17. Resistance exercise, disability, and pain catastrophizing in obese adults with back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Heather K; George, Steven Z; Seay, Amanda N; Vincent, Kevin R; Hurley, Robert W

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of two different resistance exercise protocols on self-reported disability, fear avoidance beliefs, pain catastrophizing, and back pain symptoms in obese, older adults with low back pain (LBP). Obese adults (n = 49, 60-85 yr) with chronic LBP were randomized into a total body resistance exercise intervention (TOTRX), lumbar extensor exercise intervention (LEXT), or a control group (CON). Main outcomes included perceived disability (Oswestry Disability Index, Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire). Psychosocial measures included the Fear Avoidance Beliefs survey, Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia, and Pain Catastrophizing Scale. LBP severity was measured during three functional tasks: walking, stair climbing, and chair rise using an 11-point numerical pain rating scale. The TOTRX group had greater reductions in self-reported disability scores due to back pain (Oswestry Disability Index, Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire) compared with those in the LEXT (P change in psychological outlook may assist obese, older adults with chronic back pain in reconsidering the harmfulness of the pain and facilitate regular participation in other exercise programs.

  18. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  19. Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jerez Vegueria, Pablo F.; Lopez Forteza; Yamil; Diaz Guerra, Pedro I.

    2003-01-01

    In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

  20. Effect of catastrophic wildfires on asthmatic outcomes in obese children: breathing fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Kevin; Chen, Lie; Tse, Mabel; Zuraw, Bruce; Christiansen, Sandra

    2015-04-01

    Air pollutants from wildfires and obesity independently exacerbate asthma, yet no study has determined the combined effects of these 2 variables on asthma outcomes. To determine the effect of 2 catastrophic wildfires affecting the Southern California region (in 2003 and 2007) on several asthma outcomes in a cohort of children. To investigate the association between wildfire exposure and asthma outcomes, we stratified our study population by body mass index categories (underweight, normal, overweight, and obese) and zip codes (to distinguish individuals who were closer to the fires vs farther away). The primary outcome was the prevalence of physician-dispensed short-acting β-agonist (SABAs). Secondary outcomes included the rate of emergency department visits and/or hospitalizations for asthma, the frequency of oral corticosteroid use for asthma, and number of new diagnoses of asthma. A total of 2,195 and 3,965 asthmatic children were analyzed as part of our retrospective cohort during the 2003 and 2007 wildfires, respectively. SABA dispensing increased the most in the obese group after the 2003 wildfires (P wildfire. Catastrophic wildfires lead to worsening asthma outcomes, particularly in obese individuals. This study gives further evidence of a link between obesity and asthma severity and suggests that air pollutants released during wildfires can have substantial detrimental effects on asthma control. Copyright © 2015 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

    OpenAIRE

    Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

    2015-01-01

    The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author ...

  2. Dependence theory via game theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grossi, D.; Turrini, P.

    2011-01-01

    In the multi-agent systems community, dependence theory and game theory are often presented as two alternative perspectives on the analysis of social interaction. Up till now no research has been done relating these two approaches. The unification presented provides dependence theory with the sort

  3. String theory or field theory?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshakov, Andrei V

    2002-01-01

    The status of string theory is reviewed, and major recent developments - especially those in going beyond perturbation theory in the string theory and quantum field theory frameworks - are analyzed. This analysis helps better understand the role and place of string theory in the modern picture of the physical world. Even though quantum field theory describes a wide range of experimental phenomena, it is emphasized that there are some insurmountable problems inherent in it - notably the impossibility to formulate the quantum theory of gravity on its basis - which prevent it from being a fundamental physical theory of the world of microscopic distances. It is this task, the creation of such a theory, which string theory, currently far from completion, is expected to solve. In spite of its somewhat vague current form, string theory has already led to a number of serious results and greatly contributed to progress in the understanding of quantum field theory. It is these developments which are our concern in this review. (reviews of topical problems)

  4. Out of the wave: the meaning of suffering and relieved suffering for survivors of the tsunami catastrophe. An hermeneutic-phenomenological study of TV-interviews one year after the tsunami catastrophe, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxberg, Asa; Burman, Marianne; Guldbrand, Mona; Fridlund, Bengt; da Silva, António Barbosa

    2010-12-01

    The tsunami catastrophe, 26th December 2004, is one of a number of catastrophes that has stricken mankind. Climate reports forecast that natural disasters will increase in number in the future. Research on human suffering after a major catastrophe, using a caring science perspective, is scarce. The aim of the study was to explore the meaning of suffering and relieved suffering of survivors of the tsunami catastrophe, 26th December 2004. An explorative study design, inspired by the French philosopher Paul Ricoeur's hermeneutic-phenomenology, was used. Interviews made by the Swedish Television (SVT) in connection with the 1 year anniversary were carried out on site in the disaster area and in Sweden. The text analysis revealed four main themes: 'An incomprehensible event', 'A heavy burden', 'Help that helps', and to 'Being changed in a changed life situation'. The findings were mainly interpreted in light of Paul Ricoeur's thinking on suffering, quilt, forgiveness, time and narrative. The first year after the loss of loved ones in the tsunami catastrophe, 2004, was like starting an inner as well as an outer journey. This journey was experienced as living with the heavy burden of an incomprehensible event. Help that helped was mediated by consolers who endured the suffering of the other. An 'enduring courage' is a key moral virtue to encounter the alienation of the sufferer and how it in turn alienates from the sufferer. It is also important to recognize that the complexity of the world of those who have lost loved ones in major catastrophes includes possibilities for reconciliation with the loss. The reconciliation creates hope that opens up for being changed in a changed life situation. © 2010 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences © 2010 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  5. La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Perrineau, Aude

    2015-01-01

    Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

  6. The effect of new cooperative medical scheme on health outcomes and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure in China: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xiaoyun; Guo, Hong; Jin, Chenggang; Peng, Xiaoxia; Zhang, Xiulan

    2012-01-01

    In 2002, the Chinese government launched a new rural health financing policy to provide health insurance (New Cooperative Medical Scheme, NCMS) for its rural population. NCMS, jointly financed by governments and individual households, aims to protect households from impoverishment due to catastrophic health expenditure. In 2011, NCMS covered more than 96% of the rural population. We have systematically searched and reviewed available evidence to estimate the effects of NCMS on health outcomes and on alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. PubMed, Web of Science with Conference Proceedings, ProQuest Digital Dissertations, CMCI, CNKI, and VIP were searched. We also obtained literature from colleague communications. Quasi-experimental studies regarding the effect of NCMS on health outcomes and catastrophic health expenditure were included. Two independent reviewers screened the literature, extracted the data, and assessed the study quality. Fifteen studies out of the 6123 studies in the literature fulfilled criteria and were included in this review. Twelve studies identified the relationship between NCMS and health outcomes, among which six studies measured sickness or injury in the past four weeks, four measured sickness or injury in the past two weeks, and five measured self-reported health status. Four studies focused on the relationship between NCMS and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. However, the results from these studies were in conflict: individual studies indicated that NCMS had positive, negative, or no effect on health outcomes and/or the incidence of catastrophic health payments, respectively. We still have no clear evidence that NCMS improves the health outcomes and decreases the alleviating catastrophic health expenditure of the China's rural population. In addition, the heterogeneity among individual studies reminds us that provider payment method reforms, benefit package and information systems around NCMS should be improved in the

  7. The effect of new cooperative medical scheme on health outcomes and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure in China: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyun Liang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In 2002, the Chinese government launched a new rural health financing policy to provide health insurance (New Cooperative Medical Scheme, NCMS for its rural population. NCMS, jointly financed by governments and individual households, aims to protect households from impoverishment due to catastrophic health expenditure. In 2011, NCMS covered more than 96% of the rural population. We have systematically searched and reviewed available evidence to estimate the effects of NCMS on health outcomes and on alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science with Conference Proceedings, ProQuest Digital Dissertations, CMCI, CNKI, and VIP were searched. We also obtained literature from colleague communications. Quasi-experimental studies regarding the effect of NCMS on health outcomes and catastrophic health expenditure were included. Two independent reviewers screened the literature, extracted the data, and assessed the study quality. RESULTS: Fifteen studies out of the 6123 studies in the literature fulfilled criteria and were included in this review. Twelve studies identified the relationship between NCMS and health outcomes, among which six studies measured sickness or injury in the past four weeks, four measured sickness or injury in the past two weeks, and five measured self-reported health status. Four studies focused on the relationship between NCMS and alleviating catastrophic health expenditure. However, the results from these studies were in conflict: individual studies indicated that NCMS had positive, negative, or no effect on health outcomes and/or the incidence of catastrophic health payments, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We still have no clear evidence that NCMS improves the health outcomes and decreases the alleviating catastrophic health expenditure of the China's rural population. In addition, the heterogeneity among individual studies reminds us that provider payment method reforms, benefit package

  8. Viability Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Aubin, Jean-Pierre; Saint-Pierre, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Viability theory designs and develops mathematical and algorithmic methods for investigating the adaptation to viability constraints of evolutions governed by complex systems under uncertainty that are found in many domains involving living beings, from biological evolution to economics, from environmental sciences to financial markets, from control theory and robotics to cognitive sciences. It involves interdisciplinary investigations spanning fields that have traditionally developed in isolation. The purpose of this book is to present an initiation to applications of viability theory, explai

  9. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, CC

    2012-01-01

    Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

  10. Planar channeling in superlattices: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, J.A.; Picraux, S.T.; Allen, W.R.; Chu, W.K.

    1988-01-01

    The well-known continuum model theory for planar channeled energetic particles in perfect crystals is extended to layered crystalline structures and applied to superlattices. In a strained-layer structure, the planar channels with normals which are not perpendicular to the growth direction change their direction at each interface, and this dramatically influences the channeling behavior. The governing equation of motion for a planar channeled ion in a strained-layer superlattice with equal layer thicknesses is a one degree of freedom nonlinear oscillator which is periodically forced with a sequence of δ functions. These δ functions, which are of equal spacing and amplitude with alternating sign, represent the tilts at each of the interfaces. Thus upon matching an effective channeled particle wavelength, corresponding to a natural period of the nonlinear oscillator, to the period of the strained-layer superlattice, corresponding to the periodic forcing, strong resonance effects are expected. The condition of one effective wavelength per period corresponds to a rapid dechanneling at a well-defined depth (catastrophic dechanneling), whereas two wavelengths per period corresponds to no enhanced dechanneling after the first one or two layers (resonance channeling). A phase plane analysis is used to characterize the channeled particle motion. Detailed calculations using the Moliere continuum potential are compared with our previously described modified harmonic model, and new results are presented for the phase plane evolution, as well as the dechanneling as a function of depth, incident angle, energy, and layer thickness. General scaling laws are developed and nearly universal curves are obtained for the dechanneling versus depth under catastrophic dechanneling

  11. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (II): thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyze the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations, and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analyzed on thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  12. Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

    2004-01-01

    Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

  13. Galois Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Cox, David A

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ". . .will certainly fascinate anyone interested in abstract algebra: a remarkable book!"—Monatshefte fur Mathematik Galois theory is one of the most established topics in mathematics, with historical roots that led to the development of many central concepts in modern algebra, including groups and fields. Covering classic applications of the theory, such as solvability by radicals, geometric constructions, and finite fields, Galois Theory, Second Edition delves into novel topics like Abel’s theory of Abelian equations, casus irreducibili, and the Galo

  14. Game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufwenberg, Martin

    2011-03-01

    Game theory is a toolkit for examining situations where decision makers influence each other. I discuss the nature of game-theoretic analysis, the history of game theory, why game theory is useful for understanding human psychology, and why game theory has played a key role in the recent explosion of interest in the field of behavioral economics. WIREs Cogni Sci 2011 2 167-173 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.119 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Elastoplasticity theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hashiguchi, Koichi

    2009-01-01

    This book details the mathematics and continuum mechanics necessary as a foundation of elastoplasticity theory. It explains physical backgrounds with illustrations and provides descriptions of detailed derivation processes..

  16. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  17. Multi objective multi refinery optimization with environmental and catastrophic failure effects objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khogeer, Ahmed Sirag

    2005-11-01

    Petroleum refining is a capital-intensive business. With stringent environmental regulations on the processing industry and declining refining margins, political instability, increased risk of war and terrorist attacks in which refineries and fuel transportation grids may be targeted, higher pressures are exerted on refiners to optimize performance and find the best combination of feed and processes to produce salable products that meet stricter product specifications, while at the same time meeting refinery supply commitments and of course making profit. This is done through multi objective optimization. For corporate refining companies and at the national level, Intea-Refinery and Inter-Refinery optimization is the second step in optimizing the operation of the whole refining chain as a single system. Most refinery-wide optimization methods do not cover multiple objectives such as minimizing environmental impact, avoiding catastrophic failures, or enhancing product spec upgrade effects. This work starts by carrying out a refinery-wide, single objective optimization, and then moves to multi objective-single refinery optimization. The last step is multi objective-multi refinery optimization, the objectives of which are analysis of the effects of economic, environmental, product spec, strategic, and catastrophic failure. Simulation runs were carried out using both MATLAB and ASPEN PIMS utilizing nonlinear techniques to solve the optimization problem. The results addressed the need to debottleneck some refineries or transportation media in order to meet the demand for essential products under partial or total failure scenarios. They also addressed how importing some high spec products can help recover some of the losses and what is needed in order to accomplish this. In addition, the results showed nonlinear relations among local and global objectives for some refineries. The results demonstrate that refineries can have a local multi objective optimum that does not

  18. Systems of Small Satellites For Monitoring of Natural and Technogenic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyarchuk, K. A.; Oraevsky, V. N.; Salikhov, R. S.

    The possibility of creation a new conception of using of the multi satellites system arise today in connection with the development of the circuit technology for manu- facturing real small space vehicles (SSV). Its low price allows to form the satellite systems. The space system for the short-term prognosis of earthquakes nVULCANz ´ created in frameworks of the Russian Federal space program on period till 2005 can be such example. However, this system can be used for monitoring other natural (ty- phoons, hurricanes, eruptions of volcano etc.) and man caused catastrophes (radioac- tive contamination etc.). The space segment will be designed and manufactured by NIIEM. The scientific instrumentation and program will be designed by IZMIRAN. Parameters measured by the on-board information system are as follows: plasma com- position, ionosphere altitude profile, plasma ionic composition, UHF/VHF/HF noise factor, atmosphere glow, weather parameters, the Earth surface temperature, high- energy particles, magnetic field, electric field. The first spacecraft are scheduled to be launched to the sun-sinchronous orbit by ROCOT or STRELA launch-vehicles within 2005 - 2006. Multiple space launches of 2 or 3 spacecraft and the launch of separa- ble piggyback payload are in practice. The low-altitude group consist of up to 12: 3 S/c per orbital plane. The high-altitude group is composed by 6: 3 S/c on each of 2 planes. All s/c design is based on a single space platform. The scientific program and list of instrumentation is formed now. The configuration of a system can be changed. For example the multisatellite system can provides: - Short-term, intermediate term and long-term prognosis of earthquakes, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunami; - Monitoring of radioactive and other contaminations - Evaluation of extreme situations and con- sequences of catastrophes in regions; - Analysis of a condition of the equipment and pipelines of gas and oil complex, scattering of gas emissions in

  19. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. What Is Sociolinguistic Theory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coupland, Nikolas

    1998-01-01

    Discusses three positions regarding the definition of sociolinguistic theory: (1) sociolinguistic theory is proper linguistic theory; (2) sociolinguistic theory is an accumulation of mini-theories; and (3) sociolinguistic theory as social theory. (Author/VWL)

  1. Surviving catastrophic disintegration of a large left atrial myxoma: the importance of multi-disciplinary team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habbab, Louay; Alfaraidi, Haifa; Lamy, Andre

    2014-09-12

    Atrial myxomas are the most common primary cardiac tumors, representing ∼50% of all benign cardiac tumors. Patients with a left atrial myxoma (LAM) generally present with symptoms of mechanical obstruction of blood flow, systemic emboli or constitutional symptoms. Embolic complications may occur any time with progression of the tumor; therefore, myxoma is usually considered an indication for urgent surgery. This report describes a patient with mobile large LAM who survived multiple emboli to the brain, spleen, kidneys, abdominal aorta and lower limbs during hospitalization for surgery, illustrating the critical nature of this finding and its possible catastrophic complications and demonstrating the importance of multi-disciplinary team in the decision-making process and the management of such complications and supporting the hypothesis that intravenous thrombolysis may be safely used in the treatment of embolic stroke due to cardiac myxoma. Published by Oxford University Press and JSCR Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014.

  2. The shape of uncertainty: underwriting decisions in the face of catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keykhah, M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper will explore how insurance and re-insurance underwriters price catastrophe risk from natural perils. It will first describe the theoretical nature of pricing risk, and outline studies of underwriting that propose analyzing decision making from a more behavioral than rational choice perspective. The paper then argues that in order to provide the appropriate context for probability (which is the focus of the studies on decision making under uncertainty), it may be helpful to look at the nature of choice within a market and organizational context. Moreover, the nature of probability itself is explored with a review to construct a broader analysis. Finally, it will be argued that the causal framework of the underwriter, in addition to inductive reasoning, provides a shape to uncertainty. (author)

  3. Lupus-Negative Libman-Sacks Endocarditis Complicated by Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtaza, Ghulam; Iskandar, Joy; Humphrey, Tara; Adhikari, Sujeen; Kuruvilla, Aneesh

    2017-04-01

    Libman-Sacks endocarditis is characterized by sterile and verrucous lesions that predominantly affect the aortic and mitral valves. In most cases, patients do not have significant valvular dysfunction. However, patients with significant valvular dysfunction may present with serious complications such as cardiac failure, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events. Recently, association of Libman-Sacks endocarditis with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) has been made. APS is most commonly defined by venous and arterial thrombosis, recurrent pregnancy loss, and thrombocytopenia. While the syndrome can be a primary syndrome, it is usually secondary to systemic lupus erythematosus. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) can be a life-threatening presentation of APS and can occur in 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome. We present a very rare case of a young female patient with lupus-negative Libman-Sacks endocarditis complicated by CAPS.

  4. Risk finance for catastrophe losses with Pareto-calibrated Lévy-stable severities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Michael R; Powers, Thomas Y; Gao, Siwei

    2012-11-01

    For catastrophe losses, the conventional risk finance paradigm of enterprise risk management identifies transfer, as opposed to pooling or avoidance, as the preferred solution. However, this analysis does not necessarily account for differences between light- and heavy-tailed characteristics of loss portfolios. Of particular concern are the decreasing benefits of diversification (through pooling) as the tails of severity distributions become heavier. In the present article, we study a loss portfolio characterized by nonstochastic frequency and a class of Lévy-stable severity distributions calibrated to match the parameters of the Pareto II distribution. We then propose a conservative risk finance paradigm that can be used to prepare the firm for worst-case scenarios with regard to both (1) the firm's intrinsic sensitivity to risk and (2) the heaviness of the severity's tail. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Scientific provision of the problems of overcoming the Chernobyl catastrophe consequences. Chapter 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoplya, E.F.; Rolevich, I.V.; Gurachevskij, V.L.; Poplyko, I.Ya.; Semeshko, A.V.

    1998-01-01

    At present in the Republic of Belarus the research works on the problems of overcoming of the Chernobyl accident consequences are carried out in the following directions: radiation protection of the population; health of the population affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident; complex radiation-ecological estimation of the environment and conditions of the life activity of the population; rehabilitation of the contaminated territories; instrumental and methodical provision of the radiation control. The experience of the scientific approach to the decision of wide-scale and multiple-discipline tasks of overcoming of the Chernobyl accident consequences promotes for transformation of separate knowledge about radiation safety in holistic conception of safety and protection of the population in emergency caused by industrial accidents, catastrophes, natural disasters

  6. Philosophical Anthropology, Ethics and Political Philosophy in an Age of Impending Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arran Gare

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available  In this paper it is argued that philosophical anthropology is central to ethics and politics. The denial of this has facilitated the triumph of debased notions of humans developed by Hobbes which has facilitated the enslavement of people to the logic of the global market, a logic which is now destroying the ecological conditions for civilization and most life on Earth. Reviving the classical understanding of the central place of philosophical anthropology to ethics and politics, the early work of Hegel and Marx is explicated, defended and further developed by interpreting this through developments in post-mechanistic science. Overcoming the opposition between the sciences and the humanities, it is suggested that the conception of humans developed in this way can orient people in their struggle for the liberty to avert a global ecological catastrophe.

  7. Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Wang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disasters. The GIS-based landslide monitoring and management system includes a Central Repository System (CRS, Disaster Data Processing Modules (DDPM, a Command and Control System (CCS and a Portal Management System (PMS. This architecture provides valuable insights into landslide early warning, landslide risk and vulnerability analyses, and critical infrastructure damage assessments. Finally, internet-based communications are used to support landslide disaster modelling, monitoring and management.

  8. Catastrophic Health Expenditure Among Colorectal Cancer Patients and Families: A Case of Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzani, Meram; Yahya, Abqariyah; Roslani, April Camilla; Su, Tin Tin

    2017-09-01

    This study aimed to estimate the cost of colorectal cancer (CRC) management and to explore the prevalence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) among CRC patients and their families arising from the costs of CRC management. Data were collected prospectively from 138 CRC patients. Patients were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire at the time of the diagnosis, then at 6 months and 12 months following diagnosis. Simple descriptive methods and multivariate binary logistic regression were used in the analysis. The mean cost of managing CRC was RM8306.9 (US$2595.9), and 47.8% of patients' families experienced CHE. The main determinants of CHE were the economic status of the family and the likelihood of the patient undergoing surgery. The results of this study strongly suggest that stakeholders and policy makers should provide individuals with financial protection against the consequences of cancer, a costly illness that often requires prolonged treatment.

  9. An unusual presentation of catastrophic failure of hip arthroplasty with a thigh mass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Dibra, MD

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the advent of increasing demand for total hip arthroplasty, surveillance of these patients is imperative to identify potential complications requiring revision surgery. This is especially important in the young population, as revision is usually necessary during their lifetime. We present a case of a young female patient with a history of total hip arthroplasty 17 years prior, who presented with left hip pain and anterior thigh mass. The prosthetic hip had progressed to catastrophic failure with the cobalt-chrome femoral head having eroded through the polyethylene and acetabular socket. This was associated with significant metal debris and large fluid collection in the thigh. The patient required complex revision surgery but could have had a much lesser procedure with earlier intervention.

  10. Climate Change in the News: Allusions to the Catastrophe in Times of Calm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Horacio Lozano Ascencio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has become a symbol of global risk society. It is one of the most discussed and agreed by the scientific community, however, between citizens, climate change does not achieve the same degree of consensus. The objects of study are the references to climate change in the news on Spanish television in "quiet times". The objective is to record information when there is no disaster or an international summit on climate change related. We analyze more than 200 pieces television in 2011 in national chains, regional and local perspectives emphasizing scientific, social, political and techniques from which addresses the issue. We conclude that treatment key information on climate change in "quiet times" are maintained as if at that time there were a catastrophe or an international summit.

  11. Primer retention owing to the absence of RNase H1 is catastrophic for mitochondrial DNA replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, J Bradley; Akman, Gokhan; Wood, Stuart R; Sakhuja, Kiran; Cerritelli, Susana M; Moss, Chloe; Bowmaker, Mark R; Jacobs, Howard T; Crouch, Robert J; Holt, Ian J

    2015-07-28

    Encoding ribonuclease H1 (RNase H1) degrades RNA hybridized to DNA, and its function is essential for mitochondrial DNA maintenance in the developing mouse. Here we define the role of RNase H1 in mitochondrial DNA replication. Analysis of replicating mitochondrial DNA in embryonic fibroblasts lacking RNase H1 reveals retention of three primers in the major noncoding region (NCR) and one at the prominent lagging-strand initiation site termed Ori-L. Primer retention does not lead immediately to depletion, as the persistent RNA is fully incorporated in mitochondrial DNA. However, the retained primers present an obstacle to the mitochondrial DNA polymerase γ in subsequent rounds of replication and lead to the catastrophic generation of a double-strand break at the origin when the resulting gapped molecules are copied. Hence, the essential role of RNase H1 in mitochondrial DNA replication is the removal of primers at the origin of replication.

  12. Cosmology or Catastrophe? A non-minimally coupled scalar in an inhomogeneous universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caputa, Paweł; Haque, Sheikh Shajidul; Olson, Joseph; Underwood, Bret

    2013-01-01

    A non-minimally coupled scalar field can have, in principle, a negative effective Planck mass squared which depends on the scalar field. Surprisingly, an isotropic and homogeneous cosmological universe with a non-minimally coupled scalar field is perfectly smooth as the rolling scalar field causes the effective Planck mass to change sign and pass through zero. However, we show that any small deviations from homogeneity diverge as the effective Planck mass vanishes, with catastrophic consequences for the cosmology. The physical origin of the divergence is due to the presence of non-zero scalar anisotropic stress from the non-minimally coupled scalar field. Thus, while the homogeneous and isotropic cosmology appears surprisingly sensible when the effective Planck mass vanishes, inhomogeneities tell a different story. (paper)

  13. Pregnancy, thirdness, and the aesthetics of catastrophe in Heinrich von Kleist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Gail M

    2012-01-01

    In documenting his own personal crisis of faith in Enlightenment rationalism through letters and essays, Kleist exposes the epistemological fissures in its edifice. This paper explores in psychoanalytic terms the dilemmas associated with knowing and not knowing, and the relationship between self and other, revealed by these texts. Kleist's literary work goes beyond expressing this crisis of knowledge to enact a kind of solution to it, not resolving the contradictions that are central in his world but presenting them aesthetically, intact and precariously balanced. More specifically, a pregnancy conceived without the knowledge of the mother-to-be--in his novella "The Marquise of O" (1807a)--suggests a modification of the psychoanalytic third to include within it the catastrophe that it also mitigates.

  14. Catastrophic Thermal Corneoscleral Injury Treated with Transplantation of Donor Scleral Graft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Kase

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study is to report a patient with senile cataract developing severe thermal corneoscleral injury during phacoemulsification, which was treated with a donor scleral graft. Case: Severe thermal corneoscleral injury occurred during phacoemulsification in the right eye of a 74-year-old male. His medical history was prostate hypertrophy. Visual acuity was hand motion and the intraocular pressure was 3 mm Hg OD. There was heavy corneal stromal opacity with intraocular fluid leakage. The patient underwent transplantation of a donor scleral graft to the burn site. Histologically, the injured sclera showed coagulation necrosis without inflammatory cell infiltration. An intraocular lens was eventually fixed in the ciliary sulcus 7 months later. His visual acuity remains at 2/20 OD. Conclusions: Transplantation of the donor scleral grafts is useful to close the wound in catastrophic thermal injury.

  15. Vascular Endothelial Cell Function in Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Routy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare autoimmune condition, which has been associated with a high mortality rate. However, with current management that includes a combination of anticoagulation, glucocorticoid administration, and plasma exchange, mortality rate has declined. Despite survival improvement with new generation immunosuppressive agents, their mechanisms of action are poorly defined, and CAPS is still considered a high-risk complication in patients known with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Herein, we present a case of a 79-year-old male who presented with a myocardial infarct and renal failure secondary to CAPS following a splenectomy for immune thrombocytopenia. Regardless of rapid combination of first-line treatment and rituximab therapy, the patient developed lethal cardiogenic shock secondary to mitral valve papillary muscle necrosis. Discussion of the pathophysiology and avenues of future therapies in CAPS are reported.

  16. Modified Anderson orthogonality catastrophe power law in the presence of shell structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandopadhyay, Swarnali; Hentschel, Martina

    2011-01-01

    We study Anderson orthogonality catastrophe (AOC) for parabolic quantum dots and focus on the effects of degeneracies, realized through the inherent shell structure of their energy levels that can be lifted through an external magnetic field, on the Anderson overlap. We find rich and interesting behaviors as a function of the strength and position of the perturbation, the system size, and the applied magnetic field. In particular, even for weak perturbations, we observe a pronounced AOC that is related to the degeneracy of energy levels. Most importantly, the power-law decay of the Anderson overlap as a function of the number of particles is modified in comparison to the metallic case due to the rearrangement of the energy-level shell structure. We support our analytical results by numerical calculations and also study the distribution of Anderson overlaps.

  17. The effect of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a computational interstellar dust system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liffman, K.

    1990-01-01

    The effects of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a the interstellar dust system are computed using a Monte Carlo computer model. The Monte Carlo code has as its basis an analytic solution of the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium, described by Liffman and Clayton (1989). The model is subjected to numerous different interstellar processes as it transfers from one interstellar phase to another. Collisional fragmentation was found to be the dominant physical process that shapes the size spectrum of interstellar dust. It was found that, in the diffuse cloud phase, 90 percent of the refractory material is locked up in the dust grains, primarily due to accretion in the molecular medium. This result is consistent with the observed depletions of silicon. Depletions were found to be affected only slightly by diffuse cloud accretion. 42 refs

  18. The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Around 8200 calBP, large parts of the now submerged North Sea continental shelf (‘Doggerland’ were catastrophically flooded by the Storegga Slide tsunami, one of the largest tsunamis known for the Holocene, which was generated on the Norwegian coastal margin by a submarine landslide. In the present paper, we derive a precise calendric date for the Storegga Slide tsunami, use this date for reconstruction of contemporary coastlines in the North Sea in relation to rapidly rising sea-levels, and discuss the potential effects of the tsunami on the contemporaneous Mesolithic population. One main result of this study is an unexpectedly high tsunami impact assigned to the western regions of Jutland.

  19. [Administrative efficiency in the Mexican Fund for the Prevention of Catastrophic Expenditures in Health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Núñez, Emanuel; Alcalde-Rabanal, Jaqueline; Navarro, Juan; Lozano, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    To show that the administrative regime of specialized hospitals has some influence on the administrative processes to operate the Mexican Fund for Catastrophic Expenditures in Health (FPGC, in Spanish), for providing health care to breast cancer, cervical cancer and child leukemia. The variable for estimating administrative efficiency was the time estimated from case notification to reimbursement. For its estimation, semistructured interviews were applied to key actors involved in management of cancer care financed by FPGC. Additionally, a group of experts was organized to make recommendations for improving processes. Specialized hospitals with a decentralized scheme showed less time to solve the administrative process in comparison with the model on the hospitals dependent on State Health Services, where timing and intermediation levels were higher. Decentralized hospitals administrative scheme for specialized care is more efficient, because they tend to be more autonomous.

  20. Public insurance program impact on catastrophic health expenditure on acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-García, M; Vargas-Barrón, J; Bañuelos-Téllez, F; González-Pacheco, H; Fresno, C; Hernández-Lemus, E; Martínez-Ríos, M A; Vallejo, M

    2018-03-13

    ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has an important economic burden that poised the urgent need to evaluate its catastrophic medical expense. This study evaluates the first 5 years of the national health initiative called Popular Insurance (PI) at the National Institute of Cardiology in Mexico. Retrospective data analysis. STEMI patients with (n=317) and without (n=260) PI were selected. Analysed variables included socio-economical context, management care, cost evaluation and three outcomes (mortality, hospital readmission and therapeutic adherence). Descriptive statistical analyses, Kaplan-Meier survival and Support Vector Machine models were used accordingly. Treatment costs were higher for PI-covered individuals (P=0.022) and only 1.89% of them remained in debt, in contrast to 16.15% of those without PI. Statistically significant differences were found in relation to days in hospital wards (Pcatastrophic health challenging events. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Acknowledging Fascination with Catastrophe and Terrorism: September 11 and the Nuclear Destruction of Hiroshima/Nagasaki

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanouil Aretoulakis

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available At the end of the twentieth century there was a critical shift from prioritizing the anti-aesthetic and the “sublime” towards favoring beauty in aesthetic as well as political matters. In this context, the present article discusses the role of beauty and aesthetics in such major disasters as the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Hiroshima/Nagasaki nuclear bombings. More specifically, it posits that there is a morally unacceptable feeling of fascination when witnessing destructive events of such magnitude. On the other hand, aesthetic appreciation is paradoxically indispensable for an ethical assessment of man-made catastrophes. Keywords: Beauty, Hiroshima, 9/11, Terrorism, Aesthetic Judgment, Imagination, Ethics.

  2. Perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartlett, R.; Kirtman, B.; Davidson, E.R.

    1978-01-01

    After noting some advantages of using perturbation theory some of the various types are related on a chart and described, including many-body nonlinear summations, quartic force-field fit for geometry, fourth-order correlation approximations, and a survey of some recent work. Alternative initial approximations in perturbation theory are also discussed. 25 references

  3. Game Theory

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This article tries to outline what game theory is all about. It illustrates game theory's fundamental solution concept viz., Nash equilibrium, using various examples. The Genesis. In the late thirties, the mathematician John von Neumann turned his prodigious innovative talents towards economics. This brief encounter of his with ...

  4. Shielding Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion N.Chiuta

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper determines relations for shieldingeffectiveness relative to several variables, includingmetal type, metal properties, thickness, distance,frequency, etc. It starts by presenting some relationshipsregarding magnetic, electric and electromagnetic fieldsas a pertinent background to understanding and applyingfield theory. Since literature about electromagneticcompatibility is replete with discussions about Maxwellequations and field theory only a few aspects arepresented.

  5. Protecting patients with cardiovascular diseases from catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment by health finance reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jing; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan; Fan, Yancun; McNeil, Edward

    2015-12-01

    To compare the incidences of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment, the risk protection offered by two health financial reforms and to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment among patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014 in rural Inner Mongolia, China. Patients with CVDs aged over 18 years residing in the sample areas for at least one year were eligible. The definitions of CHE and impoverishment recommended by WHO were adopted. The protection of CHE and impoverishment was compared between the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) alone and NCMS plus National Essential Medicines Scheme (NEMS) using the percentage change of incidences for CHE and impoverishment. Logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with CHE and impoverishment. The incidences of CHE and impoverishment under NCMS plus NEMS were 11.26% and 3.30%, respectively, which were lower than those under NCMS alone. The rates of protection were higher among households with patients with CVDs covered by NCMS plus NEMS (25.68% and 34.65%, respectively). NCMS plus NEMS could protect the poor households more from CHE but not impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS protected more than one-fourth of households from CHE and more than one-third from impoverishment. NCMS plus NEMS was more effective at protecting households with patients with CVDs from CHE and impoverishment than NCMS alone. An integration of NCMS with NEMS should be expanded. However, further strategies to minimise catastrophic health expenditure after this health finance reform are still needed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Doubly Reentrant Cavities Prevent Catastrophic Wetting Transitions on Intrinsically Wetting Surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Domingues, Eddy

    2017-06-05

    Omniphobic surfaces, i.e. which repel all known liquids, have proven of value in applications ranging from membrane distillation to underwater drag reduction. A limitation of currently employed omniphobic surfaces is that they rely on perfluorinated coatings, increasing cost and environmental impact, and preventing applications in harsh environments. There is, thus, a keen interest in rendering conventional materials, such as plastics, omniphobic by micro/nano-texturing rather than via chemical make-up, with notable success having been achieved for silica surfaces with doubly reentrant micropillars. However, we found a critical limitation of microtextures comprising of pillars that they undergo catastrophic wetting transitions (apparent contact angles, θr → 0° from θr > 90°) in the presence of localized physical damages/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. In response, a doubly reentrant cavity microtexture is introduced, which can prevent catastrophic wetting transitions in the presence of localized structural damage/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. Remarkably, our silica surfaces with doubly reentrant cavities could exhibited apparent contact angles, θr ≈ 135° for mineral oil, where the intrinsic contact angle, θo ≈ 20°. Further, when immersed in mineral oil or water, doubly reentrant microtextures in silica (θo ≈ 40° for water) were not penetrated even after several days of investigation. Thus, microtextures comprising of doubly reentrant cavities might enable applications of conventional materials without chemical modifications, especially in scenarios that are prone to localized damages or immersion in wetting liquids, e.g. hydrodynamic drag reduction and membrane distillation.

  7. Human reaction and risk perception to catastrophic events: a psycho-social and cultural perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthakur, M.

    1998-01-01

    Catastrophes of various kinds occur worldwide inflicting major human suffering, more so in the less privileged regions of the world. Human beings react differently to different traumatic situations and to the threat of an event in spite of man common underlying factors. Psychological reactions to catastrophic natural events like flooding on the perception of risk of flooding across various communities thus becomes an interesting study. Economic situation, lack of knowledge and resources are assumed to give a totally different perspective to reactions and perception of risk and its interpretation specially in an underprivileged country like India, compared to other developed countries. For the proposed session, the results of a study carried out in India will be presented. This includes reactions and responses of individuals and general public affected by flooding and their perceptions of risk of flooding. The study also focuses on a comparison between the people affected and at risk of flooding. Socio-cultural values, religion and superstitions, common beliefs and expectations from authorities will be studied as underlying variables, to what extent they might have an impact on the behavioral pattern of an individual in a situation and the perception of oncoming risk. A sizeable number of the Indian population resides in areas, which are generally affected by flooding or highly prone to flooding. Could perceptions vary among individuals within the society or is it simply poverty and unaffordability that drive these people info such hazardous areas? Lack of consciousness may seem to be an important variable, but what really matters and needs to be looked into is how threatened they actually feel. (author)

  8. The ecology of the Chernobyl catastrophe. Scientific outlines of an international programme of collaborative research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savchenko, V.K.

    1995-01-01

    The Chernobyl disaster was the largest civil nuclear catastrophe of all time. When reactor number 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant exploded on 26 April 1986, it permanently changed the lives of more than 4 million people living in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, shaking the fabric of an area almost the size of England, and triggering a whole swathe of environmental, economic, social, medical and political repercussions. At first the Soviet Union tackled the aftermath alone but, by 1990, with the process of change associated with perestroika, the three affected states of Belarus, Ukraine and the Federation of Russia appealed to the international community for solidarity and help. In co-operation with other agencies of the United Nations system, the UNESCO Chernobyl Programme was launched , with the formal signing of an agreement in January 1991 between the three republics and UNESCO. Since then, some twenty projects have been carried out in UNESCO's various fields of competence - education, science, culture and communication. The volume reviews eight years of study on the impact of Chernobyl on natural ecosystems, agro-ecosystems, human ecology, biological diversity, and genetic and socio-economic systems. It comprises eight chapters. The first three chapters discuss the effects of the high levels of radionuclides released from the Chernobyl reactor on the environment, on natural ecosystems and on agro-ecosystems. The fourth chapter, on human ecology, covers both the human effects at the time of the disaster and those still continuing today. Chapters five and six describe the impact of radionuclide release on biological diversity and genetic systems respectively. The socioeconomic effects of the catastrophe are discussed in chapter seven. Each of these seven chapters ends with scientific hypotheses and research recommendations, with a final chapter providing a detailed description of the setting up and aims of the multinational and multidimensional Chernobyl

  9. A test of catastrophic transition mechanisms in the Chihuahuan Desert Grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svejcar, L.; Bestelmeyer, B.; Duniway, M.

    2012-12-01

    Dryland ecosystems are known to undergo transitions from grassland or savanna states to shrub-dominated and/or eroded states with persistent loss of herbaceous vegetation. Theoretical models for predicting critical thresholds between states have been examined in drylands to search for early warning indicators, yet there is scant empirical evidence for the mechanisms. The models postulate that larger patches are favorable environments for plant growth in arid ecosystems due to short-range facilitation. The breakdown of large patches is thought to trigger catastrophic transitions. We tested assumptions underpinning these models using an experiment in black grama grassland (Bouteloua eriopoda Torr.) of the Chihuahuan Desert in which variable grazing intensities produced a wide range of patch sizes in plots with differing mesquite shrub (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) densities. We tested the hypothesis that growth, reproductive capability, and reproductive success of black grama plants would be greater in larger plant patches than in smaller patches. From 2010-2012 we measured numbers of stolons, ramets, rooted ramets and young individual plants associated with focal black grama plants and fixed areas within each patch. We found that the largest patches did not always feature the highest rates of grass reproduction across years, suggesting that patch size does not consistently indicate the patch persistence mechanisms proposed in catastrophic transition models. Other factors, such as resource competition within patches, may play important roles in black grama grasslands. When assessing rangeland conditions in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, theoretical models of critical thresholds and early warning indicators should be applied with caution.

  10. The Risk of Athletes with Chiari Malformations Suffering Catastrophic Injuries during Sports Participation is Low

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehan, William P.; Jordaan, Marc; Prabhu, Sanjay P.; Carew, Liz; Mannix, Rebekah C.; Proctor, Mark R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the risk of athletes with Chiari malformations sustaining a catastrophic injury. Design Retrospective, descriptive cohort study. Participants All patients diagnosed with Chiari malformation at our institution between June 2008 and November 2011. Assessment of Risk Factors Participants were mailed a questionnaire regarding the number of seasons they participated in organized athletics. Magnetic resonance images were reviewed to describe the characteristics of respondent’s Chiari malformations. Main Outcome Measures Whether or not the patient had sustained an injury resulting in death, coma, or paralysis. Results We had a 53% (N=147) response rate. Respondents were a mean age of 15 years (SD 2 years) at the time of diagnosis. The mean length of protrusion of the cerebellar tonsils below the foramen magnum was 11.2mm (SD 5.7mm). The majority of respondents had pointed cerebellar tonsils and some degree of crowding within the foramen magnum. During a total of 1,627 athletic seasons played by patients with Chiari malformation, 0 respondents (95% CI 0.0000, 0.0023) sustained an injury resulting in death, coma or paralysis. Likewise, during 191 collision sport athletic seasons, 0 (95% CI 0.0000, 0.0191) respondents sustained an injury resulting in death, coma or paralysis. Conclusions The risk of athletes with Chiari malformations suffering catastrophic injuries during sports participation is low. This estimate of risk should be considered when making return-to-play decisions. Given the variability of anatomical consideration for patients with Chiari malformations, however, each return-to-play decision must continue to be made on a case-by-case basis, considering all of the available information. PMID:24905537

  11. WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, S; Molloy, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages for 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor

  12. Field theory

    CERN Multimedia

    1999-11-08

    In these lectures I will build up the concept of field theory using the language of Feynman diagrams. As a starting point, field theory in zero spacetime dimensions is used as a vehicle to develop all the necessary techniques: path integral, Feynman diagrams, Schwinger-Dyson equations, asymptotic series, effective action, renormalization etc. The theory is then extended to more dimensions, with emphasis on the combinatorial aspects of the diagrams rather than their particular mathematical structure. The concept of unitarity is used to, finally, arrive at the various Feynman rules in an actual, four-dimensional theory. The concept of gauge-invariance is developed, and the structure of a non-abelian gauge theory is discussed, again on the level of Feynman diagrams and Feynman rules.

  13. Knot theory

    CERN Document Server

    Manturov, Vassily

    2004-01-01

    Since discovery of the Jones polynomial, knot theory has enjoyed a virtual explosion of important results and now plays a significant role in modern mathematics. In a unique presentation with contents not found in any other monograph, Knot Theory describes, with full proofs, the main concepts and the latest investigations in the field.The book is divided into six thematic sections. The first part discusses "pre-Vassiliev" knot theory, from knot arithmetics through the Jones polynomial and the famous Kauffman-Murasugi theorem. The second part explores braid theory, including braids in different spaces and simple word recognition algorithms. A section devoted to the Vassiliev knot invariants follows, wherein the author proves that Vassiliev invariants are stronger than all polynomial invariants and introduces Bar-Natan''s theory on Lie algebra respresentations and knots.The fourth part describes a new way, proposed by the author, to encode knots by d-diagrams. This method allows the encoding of topological obje...

  14. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  15. Potential Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lukeš, Jaroslav; Netuka, Ivan; Veselý, Jiří

    1988-01-01

    Within the tradition of meetings devoted to potential theory, a conference on potential theory took place in Prague on 19-24, July 1987. The Conference was organized by the Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, with the collaboration of the Institute of Mathematics, Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, the Department of Mathematics, Czech University of Technology, the Union of Czechoslovak Mathematicians and Physicists, the Czechoslovak Scientific and Technical Society, and supported by IMU. During the Conference, 69 scientific communications from different branches of potential theory were presented; the majority of them are in­ cluded in the present volume. (Papers based on survey lectures delivered at the Conference, its program as well as a collection of problems from potential theory will appear in a special volume of the Lecture Notes Series published by Springer-Verlag). Topics of these communications truly reflect the vast scope of contemporary potential theory. Some contributions deal...

  16. Concept theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2009-01-01

      Concept theory is an extremely broad, interdisciplinary and complex field of research related to many deep fields with very long historical traditions without much consensus. However, information science and knowledge organization cannot avoid relating to theories of concepts. Knowledge...... organizing systems (e.g. classification systems, thesauri and ontologies) should be understood as systems basically organizing concepts and their semantic relations. The same is the case with information retrieval systems. Different theories of concepts have different implications for how to construe......, evaluate and use such systems. Based on "a post-Kuhnian view" of paradigms this paper put forward arguments that the best understanding and classification of theories of concepts is to view and classify them in accordance with epistemological theories (empiricism, rationalism, historicism and pragmatism...

  17. Mechanism of the December 2015 Catastrophic Landslide at the Shenzhen Landfill and Controlling Geotechnical Risks of Urbanization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueping Yin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents findings from an investigation of the large-scale construction solid waste (CSW landslide that occurred at a landfill at Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, on December 20, 2015, and which killed 77 people and destroyed 33 houses. The landslide involved 2.73×106 m3 of CSW and affected an area about 1100 m in length and 630 m in maximum width, making it the largest landfill landslide in the world. The investigation of this disaster used a combination of unmanned aerial vehicle surveillance and multistage remote-sensing images to reveal the increasing volume of waste in the landfill and the shifting shape of the landfill slope for nearly two years before the landslide took place, beginning with the creation of the CSW landfill in March, 2014, that resulted in the uncertain conditions of the landfill's boundaries and the unstable state of the hydrologic performance. As a result, applying conventional stability analysis methods used for natural landslides to this case would be difficult. In order to analyze this disaster, we took a multistage modeling technique to analyze the varied characteristics of the landfill slope's structure at various stages of CSW dumping and used the non-steady flow theory to explain the groundwater seepage problem. The investigation showed that the landfill could be divided into two units based on the moisture in the land: a front uint, consisted of the landfill slope, which had low water content; and a rear unit, consisted of fresh waste, which had a high water content. This structure caused two effects—surface-water infiltration and consolidation seepage that triggered the landslide in the landfill. Surface-water infiltration induced a gradual increase in pore water pressure head, or piezometric head, in the front slope because the infiltrating position rose as the volume of waste placement increased. Consolidation seepage led to higher excess pore water pressures as the loading of waste increased. We

  18. A theory of Cosmic Rays

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon; Dar, Arnon; Rújula, Alvaro De

    2008-01-01

    We present a theory of non-solar cosmic rays (CRs) based on a single type of CR source at all energies. The total luminosity of the Galaxy, the broken power-law spectra with their observed slopes, the position of the `knee(s)' and `ankle', and the CR composition and its variation with energy are all predicted in terms of very simple and completely `standard' physics. The source of CRs is extremely `economical': it has only one parameter to be fitted to the ensemble of all of the mentioned data. All other inputs are `priors', that is, theoretical or observational items of information independent of the properties of the source of CRs, and chosen to lie in their pre-established ranges. The theory is part of a `unified view of high-energy astrophysics' --based on the `Cannonball' model of the relativistic ejecta of accreting black holes and neutron stars. If correct, this model is only lacking a satisfactory theoretical understanding of the `cannon' that emits the cannonballs in catastrophic processes of accreti...

  19. The relationship between pain catastrophizing, kinesiophobia and subjective knee function during rehabilitation following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscectomy: A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Tichonova

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia decreased during rehabilitation. A higher pain catastrophizing level correlated with a greater level of knee pain during activities, more difficulties experienced during daily activities before and after rehabilitation. A high level of kinesiophobia correlated with more difficulties experienced in daily activities and poorer knee-related quality of life before and after rehabilitation.

  20. Nuclear catastrophes and their consequences. 30 years after Chernobyl, 5 years after Fukushima; Nukleare Katastrophen und ihre Folgen. 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl, 5 Jahre nach Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebert, Wolfgang; Gepp, Christian; Reinberger, David (eds.)

    2016-07-01

    The book on nuclear catastrophes covers the following issues: A historical oversight on nuclear power; two catastrophic reactor accidents: Chernobyl and Fukushima; presentation of important experiences on the radiological consequences of the severe accidents; regulatory reactions in Europe as a consequence of Fukushima; beyond Chernobyl and Fukushima: fundamental problems with nuclear energy.