[Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and its potential role to mitigate carbon emission in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wen-Ying; Wu, Zong-Xin; Wang, Wei-Zhong

2007-06-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been widely recognized as one of the options to mitigate carbon emission to eventually stabilize carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Three parts of CCS, which are carbon capture, transport, and storage are assessed in this paper, covering comparisons of techno-economic parameters for different carbon capture technologies, comparisons of storage mechanism, capacity and cost for various storage formations, and etc. In addition, the role of CCS to mitigate global carbon emission is introduced. Finally, China MARKAL model is updated to include various CCS technologies, especially indirect coal liquefaction and poly-generation technologies with CCS, in order to consider carbon emission reduction as well as energy security issue. The model is used to generate different scenarios to study potential role of CCS to mitigate carbon emissions by 2050 in China. It is concluded that application of CCS can decrease marginal abatement cost and the decrease rate can reach 45% for the emission reduction rate of 50%, and it can lessen the dependence on nuclear power development for stringent carbon constrains. Moreover, coal resources can be cleanly used for longer time with CCS, e.g., for the scenario C70, coal share in the primary energy consumption by 2050 will increase from 10% when without CCS to 30% when with CCS. Therefore, China should pay attention to CCS R&D activities and to developing demonstration projects.

Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

The Origin of Stellar Species: constraining stellar evolution scenarios with Local Group galaxy surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Sarbadhicary, Sumit; Badenes, Carles; Chomiuk, Laura; Maldonado, Jessica; Caprioli, Damiano; Heger, Mairead; Huizenga, Daniel

2018-01-01

Our understanding of the progenitors of many stellar species, such as supernovae, massive and low-mass He-burning stars, is limited because of many poorly constrained aspects of stellar evolution theory. For my dissertation, I have focused on using Local Group galaxy surveys to constrain stellar evolution scenarios by measuring delay-time distributions (DTD). The DTD is the hypothetical occurrence rate of a stellar object per elapsed time after a brief burst of star formation. It is the measured distribution of timescales on which stars evolve, and therefore serves as a powerful observational constraint on theoretical progenitor models. The DTD can be measured from a survey of stellar objects and a set of star-formation histories of the host galaxy, and is particularly effective in the Local Group, where high-quality star-formation histories are available from resolved stellar populations. I am currently calculating a SN DTD with supernova remnants (SNRs) in order to provide the strongest constraints on the progenitors of thermonuclear and core-collapse supernovae. However, most SNRs do not have reliable age measurements and their evolution depends on the ambient environment. For this reason, I wrote a radio light curve model of an SNR population to extract the visibility times and rates of supernovae - crucial ingredients for the DTD - from an SNR survey. The model uses observational constraints on the local environments from multi-wavelength surveys, accounts for missing SNRs and employs the latest models of shock-driven particle acceleration. The final calculation of the SN DTD in the Local Group is awaiting completion of a systematic SNR catalog from deep radio-continuum images, now in preparation by a group led by Dr. Laura Chomiuk. I have also calculated DTDs for the LMC population of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables, which serve as important distance calibrators and stellar population tracers. We find that Cepheids can have delay-times between 10 Myrs - 1 Gyr

Towards Post-carbon Cities: Six Contrasting Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theys, Jacques; Vidalenc, Eric

2013-01-01

international gatherings at the highest level have raised awareness among the general public of the serious risks posed, on the one hand, by global warming and, on the other, by the possible exhaustion of fossil fuel resources. In this context, the idea of a transition towards a so-called 'post-carbon' society has gradually been gaining ground. This has a number of central objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels (in the countries of the North), near autonomy with regard to carbon- based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness. This is why in 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called 'Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society'. This programme's work is still on-going to wards a final report planned for - 2013. This month, Futuribles is devoting a special dossier to it, coordinated by Jacques Theys, who launched this programme, and Eric Vidalenc who now coordinates it with Nathalie Etahiri. Their article, which opens this dossier, outlines the approach and thinking at the heart of this study, which provides a deep analysis of the role cities play -or might play- in the promotion of major developments and changes to encourage a post-carbon society. In it, most importantly, the authors present the six transition scenarios that have been developed with the aim of proposing various possible routes to post-carbon cities in 2050 through highly concrete initiatives and measures in the fields of transport and housing policy, on decisions around energy, housing conditions, lifestyles etc. Lastly, they stress a major issue underlying such an ambition -namely, the way that short-, medium- and long-term goals hang together. (authors)

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Assessing the environmental costs and benefits of plantations under future carbon pricing scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, R. B.; Barrett, D. J.; Farley, K.; Guenther, A.; Jobbágy, E. G.; Murray, B. C.; McCarl, B. A.; Schlesinger, W. H.

2004-12-01

Carbon sequestration programs are gaining attention globally as a means to offset increasing fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We are examining scenarios of C sequestration in four regions of the world: the U.S., South America, China, and Australia. The analysis uses economic models to predict where the plantations will be grown and then categorizes the other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. The goals of the project include: 1) Evaluating the assumptions behind C sequestration programs for plantations, including the importance of rotation rates, a full accounting of carbon costs (e.g., planting and site preparation), and how the C would be stored and safeguarded. 2) Examining the scale of the process needed to make a substantial contribution to offset fossil fuel emissions (see below). The scenario we have chosen to evaluate is one that addresses the consequences of storing 1 PgC yr-1 for 50 years. 3) Determining and summarizing the evidence for other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. Some of the factors to be evaluated include soil acidification, changes in water fluxes and water-table dynamics, nutrient losses, changes in soil fauna and biodiversity, volatile organic carbon emissions, and erosion. 4) A final goal of the project is to make concrete recommendations for where plantations may be the most beneficial in terms of C storage and other environmental benefits, such as the amelioration of salinity and groundwater upwelling in Australia.

Maximum forseeable accident analysis made by a sodium leak on the BN-800 primary circuit and the more constraining accident development scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanenko, V.N.; Zybin, V.A.

1988-01-01

In this paper the different ways of development for the BN-800 maximum credible accident in case of loss and fire of primary sodium are examined. The more constraining scenario is presented. During the scenario analysis the accidental release of radioactive materials in the environment has been studied. These releases are below the authorized values [fr

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050: what's at stake for heavy industries? Joint Research Project 'Carbon-constrained scenarios'. Results and final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-11-01

The EpE-IDDRI study, Launched in 2004, explores how major industrial sectors will be impacted by a carbon constraint stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentration at 450 ppm. By means of an innovative hybrid modelling platform and ongoing dialogue between researchers and industrials, the study produces conclusions concerning both general climate policy as well as the economic response of industrial sectors- specifically of the steel, aluminium, cement, and sheet glass sectors, as well as of the energy sector

Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Cheng; Wang, Qunwei; Shi, Dan; Li, Pengfei; Cai, Wanhuan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Carbon dioxide shadow price shows a negative asymmetrical correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in China. • The implements of carbon trading can bring Porter Hypothesis effect significantly. • Provincial carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 19.79–25.24% in China. - Abstract: Using China’s provincial panel data and national panel data of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and BRICS (Five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), this paper simulates the scenario-based potential effect of carbon trading in China. Analysis methods included Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Difference-in-differences Model, and Nonlinear Programming Technique. Results indicated that in a theory-based view of carbon trading, the shadow price of carbon dioxide generally rises, with a non-linear negative correlation with carbon dioxide emissions. In different regions, the shadow price of carbon dioxide presents a digressive tendency among eastern, central, and western areas, with divergent gaps between and within areas. When the greatest goal is assumed to reduce national carbon intensity as much as possible at the given national GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Scenario I), carbon trading has the effect of reducing carbon intensity by 19.79%, with the consideration of Porter Hypothesis effect. If the rigid constraint of national GDP is relaxed, and the dual constraint of both economic growth and environment protection in each region is introduced (Scenario II), the resulting effect is a reduced carbon intensity of 25.24%. China’s general carbon intensity in 2012 was higher than goals set at the Copenhagen Conference, but lagged behind the goal of Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economy. This study provides realistic and significant technical support for the government to use in designing and deploying a national carbon trading market.

Environmental Externalities of Geological Carbon Sequestration Effects on Energy Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smekens, K.; Van der Zwaan, B.

2004-03-01

Geological carbon sequestration seems one of the promising options to address, in the near term, the global problem of climate change, since carbon sequestration technologies are in principle available today and their costs are expected to be affordable. Whereas extensive technological and economic feasibility studies rightly point out the large potential of this 'clean fossil fuel' option, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the detrimental environmental externalities that the sequestering of CO2 underground could entail. This paper assesses what the relevance might be of including these external effects in long-term energy planning and scenario analyses. Our main conclusion is that, while these effects are generally likely to be relatively small, carbon sequestration externalities do matter and influence the nature of future world energy supply and consumption. More importantly, since geological carbon storage (depending on the method employed) may in some cases have substantial external impacts, in terms of both environmental damage and health risks, it is recommended that extensive studies are performed to quantify these effects. This article addresses three main questions: (1) What may energy supply look like if one accounts for large-scale CO2 sequestration in the construction of long-term energy and climate change scenarios; (2) Suppose one hypothesizes a quantification of the external environmental costs of CO2 sequestration, how do then these supposed costs affect the evolution of the energy system during the 21st century; (3) Does it matter for these scenarios whether carbon sequestration damage costs are charged directly to consumers or, instead, to electricity producers?

Multiple Observation Types Jointly Constrain Terrestrial Carbon and Water Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Raupach, M. R.; Haverd, V.; Briggs, P. R.; Canadell, J.; Davis, S. J.; Isaac, P. R.; Law, R.; Meyer, M.; Peters, G. P.; Pickett Heaps, C.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Sherman, B.; van Gorsel, E.; Viscarra Rossel, R.; Wang, Z.

2012-12-01

Information about the carbon cycle potentially constrains the water cycle, and vice versa. This paper explores the utility of multiple observation sets to constrain carbon and water fluxes and stores in a land surface model, and a resulting determination of the Australian terrestrial carbon budget. Observations include streamflow from 416 gauged catchments, measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 12 eddy-flux sites, litterfall data, and data on carbon pools. The model is a version of CABLE (the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model), coupled with CASAcnp (a biogeochemical model) and SLI (Soil-Litter-Iso, a soil hydrology model including liquid and vapour water fluxes and the effects of litter). By projecting observation-prediction residuals onto model uncertainty, we find that eddy flux measurements provide a significantly tighter constraint on Australian continental net primary production (NPP) than the other data types. However, simultaneous constraint by multiple data types is important for mitigating bias from any single type. Results emerging from the multiply-constrained model are as follows (with all values applying over 1990-2011 and all ranges denoting ±1 standard error): (1) on the Australian continent, a predominantly semi-arid region, over half (0.64±0.05) of the water loss through ET occurs through soil evaporation and bypasses plants entirely; (2) mean Australian NPP is 2200±400 TgC/y, making the NPP/precipitation ratio about the same for Australia as the global land average; (3) annually cyclic ("grassy") vegetation and persistent ("woody") vegetation respectively account for 0.56±0.14 and 0.43±0.14 of NPP across Australia; (4) the average interannual variability of Australia's NEP (±180 TgC/y) is larger than Australia's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (149 TgCeq/y), and is dominated by variability in desert and savannah regions. The mean carbon budget over 1990

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2011-11-15

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

2014-01-01

and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Propositions of public policy measures for a low-carbon scenario. Study synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, Isabelle; Bodiguel, Aude; Callonnec, Gael; Ransquin, Johan; Marchal, David; Cheverry, Marc; Guermont-Bernardi, Catherine; Nauleau, Marie-Laure; Parrouffe, Jean-Michel; Mousset, Jerome; Bardinal, Marc; Marion, Roland; Gourdon, Thomas; Streiff, Frederic; Barbusse, Stephane; Dore, Nicolas; Sanna, Daniela; Eglin, Thomas; Cairey-Remonnay, Michel; Bastide, Guillaume; Paulou, Julien; Leblanc, Clement; Suaud, Charlotte; Cabanne, Isabelle; Doudnikoff, Marjorie; Vergez, Antonin; Domergue, Silvano; Fragnol, Ludovic; Brender, Pierre; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Bringault, Anne; Jedliczka, Marc; Duffes, Thomas; Bureau, Dominique; Perrissin Fabert, Baptiste; Dumas, Gerald; Lepee, Jerome; Bailly, Boris; Sudries, Laura; Mairet, Nicolas; Remontet, Lucas; Correia, Leslie; Briand-Boucher, Vincent

2017-08-01

As three scenarios had been elaborated in view of the Paris COP21, this report more particularly addresses the third of them, i.e. the so-called AMS2 scenario which contains a set of additional measures, including those defined in the French law on energy transition for a green growth (LTECV). A first part analyses this scenario: objectives related to the residential sector, to the tertiary sector, to the transport sector, to the industrial sector, to the agriculture sector, and to the electric power sector, carbon component of consumption domestic taxes. The report then outlines that this adjusted version of the AMS2 scenario does not fit France's low carbon trajectory any longer, and thus needs additional measures. It discusses the assessment of greenhouse gas emission benefits, and identifies and discusses clusters of measures for the different sectors (residential, tertiary, transport, industrial, agriculture, energy)

Multiple Observation Types Jointly Constrain Australian Terrestrial Carbon and Water Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Haverd, Vanessa; Raupach, Michael; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Pep; Davis, Steven; Isaac, Peter; Law, Rachel; Meyer, Mick; Peters, Glenn; Pickett-Heaps, Christopher; Roxburgh, Stephen; Sherman, Bradford; van Gorsel, Eva; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael; Wang, Ziyuan

2013-04-01

Information about the carbon cycle potentially constrains the water cycle, and vice versa. This paper explores the utility of multiple observation sets to constrain carbon and water fluxes and stores in a land surface model, and a resulting determination of the Australian terrestrial carbon budget. Observations include streamflow from 416 gauged catchments, measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 12 eddy-flux sites, litterfall data, and data on carbon pools. The model is a version of CABLE (the Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange model), coupled with CASAcnp (a biogeochemical model) and SLI (Soil-Litter-Iso, a soil hydrology model including liquid and vapour water fluxes and the effects of litter). By projecting observation-prediction residuals onto model uncertainty, we find that eddy flux measurements provide a significantly tighter constraint on Australian continental net primary production (NPP) than the other data types. However, simultaneous constraint by multiple data types is important for mitigating bias from any single type. Results emerging from the multiply-constrained model are as follows (with all values applying over 1990-2011 and all ranges denoting ±1 standard error): (1) on the Australian continent, a predominantly semi-arid region, over half (0.64±0.05) of the water loss through ET occurs through soil evaporation and bypasses plants entirely; (2) mean Australian NPP is 2200±400 TgC/y, making the NPP/precipitation ratio about the same for Australia as the global land average; (3) annually cyclic ("grassy") vegetation and persistent ("woody") vegetation respectively account for 0.56±0.14 and 0.43±0.14 of NPP across Australia; (4) the average interannual variability of Australia's NEP (±180 TgC/y) is larger than Australia's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (149 TgCeq/y), and is dominated by variability in desert and savannah regions. The mean carbon budget over 1990

Carbon footprint associated with four disposal scenarios for urban pruning waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Yuri Rommel Vieira; de Góis, Monijany Lins; Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho; Carvalho, Monica

2018-01-01

The inadequate disposal of urban pruning residues can cause significant environmental impacts. The objective of the study presented herein was to quantify the carbon footprint and analyze four disposal scenarios for the urban pruning waste of the city of Joao Pessoa (Northeast Brazil). Software SimaPro was utilized for the quantification of the carbon footprint, with the IPCC 2013 GWP 100y impact evaluation method. The end-of-life treatments considered were sanitary landfilling (with and without collection of methane), simple municipal incineration, and reutilization of wood (transformation into briquettes). The results indicated that simple disposal in sanitary landfill generated 136.34 kg CO 2 /t urban pruning waste collected (highest carbon footprint), sanitary landfill with methane collection emitted 113.43 kg CO 2 /t waste, municipal incineration generated 71.31 kg CO 2 /t waste, and reutilization of woody residues was the scenario with the lowest carbon footprint, with 27.82 kg CO 2 /t waste. This study demonstrated that reutilization of biomass, besides being environmentally viable, presents the potential to contribute to the city's environmental quality, including the possibility of being used to obtain carbon credits.

Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

2015-01-01

In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

2010-01-01

China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Natural Gas, Wind and Nuclear Options for Generating Electricity in a Carbon Constrained World

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kooten, van G.C.

2012-01-01

A linear programming model is used to examine the impact of carbon taxes on the optimal generation mix in the Alberta electrical system. The model permits decommissioning of generating assets with high carbon dioxide emissions and investment in new gas-fired, wind and, in some scenarios, nuclear

Mobilization of Trace Metals in an Experimental Carbon Sequestration Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Marcon, V.; Kaszuba, J. P.

2012-12-01

similar manner, increasing in concentration with injection but continually decreasing after about 830 hours until termination of the experiment. SEM images and geochemical models indicate initial dissolution of all rocks and minerals, re-precipitation of Ca-Mg-Fe carbonates and Fe-sulfides, and precipitation of anhydrite in both systems. Calcite dissolves more readily than dolomite in these experiments, but re-precipitates in veins on dolomite. If brines leak from a storage reservoir and mix with a potable aquifer, the experimental results suggest that Ba, Cu, and Zn will not be contaminants of concern. Pb, Fe and As (still under consideration) initially exceed the EPA threshold and may require careful attention in a sequestration scenario. However, experimentally observed trends of decreasing trace metal concentration suggest that these metals could become less of a concern during the life of a carbon repository. Finally, the caprock plays an active role in trace metal mobilization in the system. The caprock provides a source of metals, although subsequent precipitation may remove metals from solution.

Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischlein, Miriam; Smith, Timothy M.; Wilson, Elizabeth J.

2009-01-01

An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO 2 annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO 2 emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.

Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Andrew

2008-01-01

This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback: The PCN Incubation-Panarctic Thermal (PInc-PanTher) Scaling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E.; Schaedel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E. E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; MacDougall, A.; Marchenko, S. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Natali, S.; Nicolsky, D.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C. C.; Turetsky, M. R.

2015-12-01

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a 3-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100.

Solar Power in the European Context: Conversion Efficiency and the Issue of Carbon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Silva Pacini Costa

2009-04-01

Full Text Available The European Union is committed to increasing the use of renewable energies across Europe. One of the ways this is to be done is through the promotion of solar photovoltaics (PV, a method with significant environmental benefits. However, the high costs of electricity generated through PV have constrained the market reach of this option. This paper takes the form of a policy discussion, analyzing the fundamental issues concerning this type of energy, and its place in the European alternative energy market. Furthermore, a scenario is drafted to estimate how efficient solar panels should ideally be to make electricity produced by them cost-competitive with conventional, grid-tied energy sources. The study considers both a conventional scenario and another, with carbon capture costs incorporated into the final electricity prices. It is observed that in order to be competitive with conventional fossil-based electricity, photovoltaic conversion efficiencies should be around 34%. Incorporating carbon costs would further help promote solar PV, making it more price-attractive compared to emission-intensive electricity generation based on fossil fuels. The final part of the paper sheds light on the new developments on European PV, mainly in regards to the 2008 European Commission Climate Change Package, its implications and reactions from the industry.

Design and Macroeconomic Analysis of an 'Acceptable' Low-Carbon Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

2016-01-01

Two observations motivate our research: the lack of acceptability of climate policies and the deficit of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of low-carbon scenarios. Both constitute a barrier to decision-making and slow the energy transition. To overcome these limitations, we have scripted a scenario using a co-development method involving 30 stakeholders from civil society and the private and public sectors. Stakeholders contributed significantly to the methodology by requesting data transparency, sensitivity tests and the clarification of economic and financial impacts. We incorporated the set of policies regarded as acceptable into the Imaclim-R model. The resulting scenario cuts CO_2 emissions by 68 % in 2050, an outcome close to the 75 % reduction target. The measures are beneficial to employment and economic growth, except in the short term. These findings provide solid foundations to build acceptable decarbonization pathways

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-08-06

In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-01-01

In this thesis we study the relic density n χ of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles χ in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles χ to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where χ particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T 0 of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the χ number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T 0 , assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T 0 ≥m χ /23, where m χ is the mass of χ. Second, we discuss the χ density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the χ annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T ∝m χ /20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Bake hardening of ultra-fine grained low carbon steel produced by constrained groove pressing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alihosseini, H.; Dehghani, K.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► BH of UFG low carbon steel sheets was studied. ► Three passes of CGP are used for producing of UFG sheets. ► Maximum BH was achieved to the UFG specimen pre-strained 8% by baking at 250 °C. - Abstract: In the present work, the bake hardening of ultra-fine grained low carbon steel was compared with that of its coarse-grain counterpart. The ultra-fine grained sheets were produced by applying three passes of constrained groove pressing resulting the grains of 260–270 nm. The microstructure of ultra-fine grain specimens were characterized using electron back-scatter diffraction technique. Then, the bake hardenability of ultra-fine grain and coarse-grain samples were compared by pre-straining to 4, 6 and 8% followed by baking at 150 °C and 250 °C for 20 min. The results show that in case of baking at 250 °C, there was an increase about 108%, 93%, and 72% in the bake hardening for 4%, 6% and 8% pre-strain, respectively. As for baking at 150 °C, these values were 170%, 168%, and 100%, respectively for 4%, 6% and 8% pre-strain. The maximum in bake hardenability (103 MPa) and final yield stress (563 MPa) were pertaining to the ultra-fine grain specimen pre-strained 8% followed by baking at 250 °C.

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

2003-01-01

In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roshan GholamReza

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

2012-12-12

The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

Communication Schemes with Constrained Reordering of Resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Popovski, Petar; Utkovski, Zoran; Trillingsgaard, Kasper Fløe

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a communication model inspired by two practical scenarios. The first scenario is related to the concept of protocol coding, where information is encoded in the actions taken by an existing communication protocol. We investigate strategies for protocol coding via combinatorial...... reordering of the labelled user resources (packets, channels) in an existing, primary system. However, the degrees of freedom of the reordering are constrained by the operation of the primary system. The second scenario is related to communication systems with energy harvesting, where the transmitted signals...... are constrained by the energy that is available through the harvesting process. We have introduced a communication model that covers both scenarios and elicits their key feature, namely the constraints of the primary system or the harvesting process. We have shown how to compute the capacity of the channels...

Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2015-01-01

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Hong, Taehoon

2014-01-01

Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO 2 analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment

Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

Building a low carbon scenario for France. How a participatory approach can enhance social and economic acceptability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

2012-03-01

This publication presents the French case study of the European ENCI-LowCarb research project: Engaging Civil Society in Low Carbon scenarios. The core activity of this project was the development of a methodology for the transparent integration of stakeholders' contributions in the scenario design process to enhance the stakeholders' acceptance of the resulting low carbon pathways. This attempt at integrating acceptability in scenario-making constitutes an important step to distinguish what is technically and economically feasible from what is acceptable. Today, a wide range of published scenarios emphasize the fact that they are built on public consultations or stakeholders' contributions. However, transparency is lacking concerning the methodology relative to how contributions were taken into account and translated into assumptions that can be used by the modeling tool. The project ENCI-LowCarb aimed at exploring this scientific gap. Energy scenarios outline possible low-carbon futures built around assumptions on fossil fuels prices evolution, technological choices and the mechanisms of energy demand and supply, among others. Scenarios are influential tools in political decision-making processes since they shed light on the long-term impacts of today's investment decisions, especially regarding infrastructures. This is why it is crucial that these pathways derive from discussions with main stakeholders. In this report, the French project team (CIRED and RAC-F) has the pleasure to present energy scenarios for France which derive from a collaborative scenario design process including the participation of a wide range of French stakeholders (civil society organizations including trade unions and non-governmental organizations, private companies, banks, statewide and local authorities). Participating stakeholders were asked to define or select acceptable CO 2 emissions mitigation measures. Their contributions were implemented in the technico-economic model Imaclim

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steward, Darlene [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Webster, Karen W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.

Constraining estimates of methane emissions from Arctic permafrost regions with CARVE

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, R. Y.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Henderson, J.; Mountain, M.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Luus, K. A.; Lin, J. C.; Dinardo, S.; Miller, C. E.; Wofsy, S. C.

2013-12-01

Permafrost in the Arctic contains large carbon pools that are currently non-labile, but can be released to the atmosphere as polar regions warm. In order to predict future climate scenarios, we need to understand the emissions of these greenhouse gases under varying environmental conditions. This study presents in-situ measurements of methane made on board an aircraft during the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), which sampled over the permafrost regions of Alaska. Using measurements from May to September 2012, seasonal emission rate estimates of methane from tundra are constrained using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by custom polar-WRF fields. Preliminary results suggest that methane emission rates have not greatly increased since the Arctic Boundary Layer Experiment conducted in southwest Alaska in 1988.

Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Olaya-Abril, Alfonso; Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz; Obregón-Romero, Rafael

2017-08-15

Over time, the interest on soil studies has increased due to its role in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO 2 rates. In many studies, independent variables were related to soil organic carbon (SOC) alone, however, the contribution degree of each variable with the experimentally determined SOC content were not considered. In this study, samples from 612 soil profiles were obtained in a natural protected (Red Natura 2000) of Sierra Morena (Mediterranean area, South Spain), considering only the topsoil 0-25cm, for better comparison between results. 24 independent variables were used to define it relationship with SOC content. Subsequently, using a multiple linear regression analysis, the effects of these variables on the SOC correlation was considered. Finally, the best parameters determined with the regression analysis were used in a climatic change scenario. The model indicated that SOC in a future scenario of climate change depends on average temperature of coldest quarter (41.9%), average temperature of warmest quarter (34.5%), annual precipitation (22.2%) and annual average temperature (1.3%). When the current and future situations were compared, the SOC content in the study area was reduced a 35.4%, and a trend towards migration to higher latitude and altitude was observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires.The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be

A Low Carbon EU Energy System and Unconventional Sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, F.; Kanudia, A.; Tosato, GC.

2013-01-01

The paper investigates the potential role of unconventional fossil fuels in a global low carbon energy system. Making use of a systemic approach, the paper presents an original application of a global partial equilibrium energy system model (TIAM-JET). In order to give a worldwide perspective with higher detail on European energy systems, the model links a set of extra-European macro-regions to the 30 European countries. First, a review of the most recent estimates of the available stocks of unconventional hydrocarbon resources is used to build the set of assumption for the scenario analysis. Secondly, a set of scenarios assuming different availability and cost of unconventional fuels are added to both a Current Trend scenario and a Carbon Constrained (CC) scenario, to explore the perspectives of unconventional gas and oil in a scenario halving CO 2 emissions by 2050, which is consistent with a 2 degree temperature increase. The results show if/how unconventional sources can contribute to the robustness of the European energy system with respect to the stress of a strong carbon constraint. We define this robustness as the capacity of the energy system to adapt its evolution to long-term constraints and keep delivering energy services to end users. In our approach robustness represents the long-term dimension of energy security. Assessing this ''system property'' requires analysing the wide range of factors that can exercise a stabilizing influence on the energy services delivery system, together with their relations, actual interactions and synergies. The energy system approach used for the analysis seeks to take into account as much of this complexity as possible. We assess the robustness of the EU system to the carbon constraint by looking at how the CC scenario affects energy system costs and energy prices under scenarios with different deployment of unconventional sources. This provides insights on the synergies and/or trade-offs between energy security and

Modeling caspian sea water level oscilLations Under Diffrent Scenarioes of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GholamReza Roshan

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in thecoastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was stimulated. Variations in environmentalparameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, tmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for bothpast (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software(version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17ºC per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increasedby ca. +36 mm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64ºC and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin,temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78ºC and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels projectfuture water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

Complementarity of flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenggang Du

2015-03-01

Full Text Available To improve models for accurate projections, data assimilation, an emerging statistical approach to combine models with data, have recently been developed to probe initial conditions, parameters, data content, response functions and model uncertainties. Quantifying how many information contents are contained in different data streams is essential to predict future states of ecosystems and the climate. This study uses a data assimilation approach to examine the information contents contained in flux- and biometric-based data to constrain parameters in a terrestrial carbon (C model, which includes canopy photosynthesis and vegetation–soil C transfer submodels. Three assimilation experiments were constructed with either net ecosystem exchange (NEE data only or biometric data only [including foliage and woody biomass, litterfall, soil organic C (SOC and soil respiration], or both NEE and biometric data to constrain model parameters by a probabilistic inversion application. The results showed that NEE data mainly constrained parameters associated with gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE but were almost invalid for C transfer coefficients, while biometric data were more effective in constraining C transfer coefficients than other parameters. NEE and biometric data constrained about 26% (6 and 30% (7 of a total of 23 parameters, respectively, but their combined application constrained about 61% (14 of all parameters. The complementarity of NEE and biometric data was obvious in constraining most of parameters. The poor constraint by only NEE or biometric data was probably attributable to either the lack of long-term C dynamic data or errors from measurements. Overall, our results suggest that flux- and biometric-based data, containing different processes in ecosystem C dynamics, have different capacities to constrain parameters related to photosynthesis and C transfer coefficients, respectively. Multiple data sources could also

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman, T. L.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Mencuccini, M.; Bloom, A. A.; Williams, M.

2017-03-01

Forest carbon sink strengths are governed by plant growth, mineralization of dead organic matter, and disturbance. Across landscapes, remote sensing can provide information about aboveground states of forests and this information can be linked to models to estimate carbon cycling in forests close to steady state. For aggrading forests this approach is more challenging and has not been demonstrated. Here we apply a Bayesian approach, linking a simple model to a range of data, to evaluate their information content, for two aggrading forests. We compare high information content analyses using local observations with retrievals using progressively sparser remotely sensed information (repeated, single, and no woody biomass observations). The net biome productivity of both forests is constrained to be a net sink with litter dynamics at one forest, while at the second forest total dead organic matter estimates are within observational uncertainty. The uncertainty of retrieved ecosystem traits in the repeated biomass analysis is reduced by up to 50% compared to analyses with less biomass information. This study quantifies the importance of repeated woody observations in constraining the dynamics of both wood and dead organic matter, highlighting the benefit of proposed remote sensing missions.

Throughput-constrained DVFS for scenario-aware dataflow graphs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Damavandpeyma, M.; Stuijk, S.; Basten, T.; Geilen, M.C.W.; Corporaal, H.

2013-01-01

Dynamic behavior of streaming applications can be effectively modeled by scenario-aware dataflow graphs (SADFs). Many streaming applications must provide timing guarantees (e.g., throughput) to assure their quality-of-service. For instance, a video decoder which is running on a mobile device is

National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

2006-12-01

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-01

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Koven, C.D.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Schädel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; MacDougall, A. H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Olefeldt, David; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, Kevin M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C.C.; Turetsky, M.

2015-01-01

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Robert G.; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2010-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

Republic of Lithuania national energy strategy. Vol. 1: The strategy. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

The aim of the study was to determine the strategic goals needed for modernizing the Lithuanian energy system, to identify the actions which will attain those goals and to advise how the actions may be implemented. Key issues of Lithuania's energy sector are introduced and macro economic scenarios as well as projected energy demand scenarios are explained. Suggestions on energy demand and supply side options are presented and those options are examined in scenarios of possible future energy demand and supply developments. These scenarios differ according to various constrains relating to fuel import sources and prices, export potential, energy efficiency effects and fossils or nuclear/non-nuclear fuel choices. Finally, recommended strategy which is built on the evaluation of the scenarios is summarised.[Data

Republic of Lithuania national energy strategy. Vol. 1: The strategy. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

IC Consult-ERM Energy Limited-COWI Consult-EC-PHARE Programme Collaboration

1993-11-01

The aim of the study was to determine the strategic goals needed for modernizing the Lithuanian energy system, to identify the actions which will attain those goals and to advise how the actions may be implemented. Key issues of Lithuania`s energy sector are introduced and macro economic scenarios as well as projected energy demand scenarios are explained. Suggestions on energy demand and supply side options are presented and those options are examined in scenarios of possible future energy demand and supply developments. These scenarios differ according to various constrains relating to fuel import sources and prices, export potential, energy efficiency effects and fossils or nuclear/non-nuclear fuel choices. Finally, recommended strategy which is built on the evaluation of the scenarios is summarised.[Data].

Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R.

2015-01-01

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher...... imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based...

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

Science.gov (United States)

Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

2014-11-21

The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

Integrating satellite retrieved leaf chlorophyll into land surface models for constraining simulations of water and carbon fluxes

KAUST Repository

Houborg, Rasmus

2013-07-01

In terrestrial biosphere models, key biochemical controls on carbon uptake by vegetation canopies are typically assigned fixed literature-based values for broad categories of vegetation types although in reality significant spatial and temporal variability exists. Satellite remote sensing can support modeling efforts by offering distributed information on important land surface characteristics, which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise. This study investigates the utility of satellite based retrievals of leaf chlorophyll for estimating leaf photosynthetic capacity and for constraining model simulations of water and carbon fluxes. © 2013 IEEE.

Sensitivity analysis of the GEMS soil organic carbon model to land cover land use classification uncertainties under different climate scenarios in Senegal

Science.gov (United States)

Dieye, A.M.; Roy, David P.; Hanan, N.P.; Liu, S.; Hansen, M.; Toure, A.

2012-01-01

Spatially explicit land cover land use (LCLU) change information is needed to drive biogeochemical models that simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Such information is increasingly being mapped using remotely sensed satellite data with classification schemes and uncertainties constrained by the sensing system, classification algorithms and land cover schemes. In this study, automated LCLU classification of multi-temporal Landsat satellite data were used to assess the sensitivity of SOC modeled by the Global Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). The GEMS was run for an area of 1560 km2 in Senegal under three climate change scenarios with LCLU maps generated using different Landsat classification approaches. This research provides a method to estimate the variability of SOC, specifically the SOC uncertainty due to satellite classification errors, which we show is dependent not only on the LCLU classification errors but also on where the LCLU classes occur relative to the other GEMS model inputs.

Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanying Chi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

Constraining Saturn's interior density profile from precision gravity field measurement obtained during Grand Finale

Science.gov (United States)

Movshovitz, N.; Fortney, J. J.; Helled, R.; Hubbard, W. B.; Mankovich, C.; Thorngren, D.; Wahl, S. M.; Militzer, B.; Durante, D.

2017-12-01

The external gravity field of a planetary body is determined by the distribution of mass in its interior. Therefore, a measurement of the external field, properlyinterpreted, tells us about the interior density profile, ρ(r), which in turn can be used to constrain the composition in the interior and thereby learn about theformation mechanism of the planet. Recently, very high precision measurements of the gravity coefficients for Saturn have been made by the radio science instrument on the Cassini spacecraft during its Grand Finale orbits. The resulting coefficients come with an associated uncertainty. The task of matching a given density profile to a given set of gravity coefficients is relatively straightforward, but the question of how to best account for the uncertainty is not. In essentially all prior work on matching models to gravity field data inferences about planetary structure have rested on assumptions regarding the imperfectly known H/He equation of state and the assumption of an adiabatic interior. Here we wish to vastly expand the phase space of such calculations. We present a framework for describing all the possible interior density structures of a Jovian planet constrained by a given set of gravity coefficients and their associated uncertainties. Our approach is statistical. We produce a random sample of ρ(a) curves drawn from the underlying (and unknown) probability distribution of all curves, where ρ is the density on an interior level surface with equatorial radius a. Since the resulting set of density curves is a random sample, that is, curves appear with frequency proportional to the likelihood of their being consistent with the measured gravity, we can compute probability distributions for any quantity that is a function of ρ, such as central pressure, oblateness, core mass and radius, etc. Our approach is also Bayesian, in that it can utilize any prior assumptions about the planet's interior, as necessary, without being overly

Constraining particle dark matter using local galaxy distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ando, Shin’ichiro; Ishiwata, Koji

2016-01-01

It has been long discussed that cosmic rays may contain signals of dark matter. In the last couple of years an anomaly of cosmic-ray positrons has drawn a lot of attentions, and recently an excess in cosmic-ray anti-proton has been reported by AMS-02 collaboration. Both excesses may indicate towards decaying or annihilating dark matter with a mass of around 1–10 TeV. In this article we study the gamma rays from dark matter and constraints from cross correlations with distribution of galaxies, particularly in a local volume. We find that gamma rays due to inverse-Compton process have large intensity, and hence they give stringent constraints on dark matter scenarios in the TeV scale mass regime. Taking the recent developments in modeling astrophysical gamma-ray sources as well as comprehensive possibilities of the final state products of dark matter decay or annihilation into account, we show that the parameter regions of decaying dark matter that are suggested to explain the excesses are excluded. We also discuss the constrains on annihilating scenarios.

Scenarios for Low Carbon and Low Water Electric Power Plant Operations: Implications for Upstream Water Use.

Science.gov (United States)

Dodder, Rebecca S; Barnwell, Jessica T; Yelverton, William H

2016-11-01

Electric sector water use, in particular for thermoelectric operations, is a critical component of the water-energy nexus. On a life cycle basis per unit of electricity generated, operational (e.g., cooling system) water use is substantially higher than water demands for the fuel cycle (e.g., natural gas and coal) and power plant manufacturing (e.g., equipment and construction). However, could shifting toward low carbon and low water electric power operations create trade-offs across the electricity life cycle? We compare business-as-usual with scenarios of carbon reductions and water constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model. Our scenarios show that, for water withdrawals, the trade-offs are minimal: operational water use accounts for over 95% of life cycle withdrawals. For water consumption, however, this analysis identifies potential trade-offs under some scenarios. Nationally, water use for the fuel cycle and power plant manufacturing can reach up to 26% of the total life cycle consumption. In the western United States, nonoperational consumption can even exceed operational demands. In particular, water use for biomass feedstock irrigation and manufacturing/construction of solar power facilities could increase with high deployment. As the United States moves toward lower carbon electric power operations, consideration of shifting water demands can help avoid unintended consequences.

The biological carbon pump in the ocean: Reviewing model representations and its feedbacks on climate perturbations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hülse, Dominik; Arndt, Sandra; Ridgwell, Andy; Wilson, Jamie

2016-04-01

The ocean-sediment system, as the biggest carbon reservoir in the Earth's carbon cycle, plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Therefore, it is essential to constrain the importance of marine carbon cycle feedbacks on global warming and ocean acidification. Arguably, the most important single component of the ocean's carbon cycle is the so-called "biological carbon pump". It transports carbon that is fixed in the light-flooded surface layer of the ocean to the deep ocean and the surface sediment, where it is degraded/dissolved or finally buried in the deep sediments. Over the past decade, progress has been made in understanding different factors that control the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and their feedbacks on the global carbon cycle and climate (i.e. ballasting = ocean acidification feedback; temperature dependant organic matter degradation = global warming feedback; organic matter sulphurisation = anoxia/euxinia feedback). Nevertheless, many uncertainties concerning the interplay of these processes and/or their relative significance remain. In addition, current Earth System Models tend to employ empirical and static parameterisations of the biological pump. As these parametric representations are derived from a limited set of present-day observations, their ability to represent carbon cycle feedbacks under changing climate conditions is limited. The aim of my research is to combine past carbon cycling information with a spatially resolved global biogeochemical model to constrain the functioning of the biological pump and to base its mathematical representation on a more mechanistic approach. Here, I will discuss important aspects that control the efficiency of the ocean's biological carbon pump, review how these processes of first order importance are mathematically represented in existing Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) and distinguish different approaches to approximate

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Constraining the Exchange of Carbon and Nitrogen in Eastern Long Island Sound

Science.gov (United States)

Byrd, A.; Warren, J. K.; Vlahos, P.; Whitney, M. M.

2017-12-01

Long Island Sound (LIS) is an urban estuary on the US east coast that undergoes seasonal hypoxia in its western and central regions. Currently, the budgets of both carbon and nitrogen in LIS remain unbalanced, despite their importance to the efficient and strategic management of the health of coastal and aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the exchange values of C and N at the mouth of LIS (the Race), in order to constrain export through this important boundary. Discreet water samples were collected during four 15 km transects over the Race at five stations and three depths each station to resolve the temporal variability over a complete tidal cycle, in order to assess both net flux and variations across the tidal period. By evaluating both the particulate and dissolved pools of carbon (POC, PIC, DOC, DIC) and nitrogen (PON, DON, DIN) during the spring, summer and winter (high and low flow conditions) and pairing these measurements with physical data, we were able to identify a variety of forcing and export regimes. Preliminary results indicate the importance of spatial and tidal variability on flux estimates and show little or no export (and sometimes import) of nitrogen and significant export of organic carbon.

Data-constrained reionization and its effects on cosmological parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pandolfi, S.; Ferrara, A.; Choudhury, T. Roy; Mitra, S.; Melchiorri, A.

2011-01-01

We perform an analysis of the recent WMAP7 data considering physically motivated and viable reionization scenarios with the aim of assessing their effects on cosmological parameter determinations. The main novelties are: (i) the combination of cosmic microwave background data with astrophysical results from quasar absorption line experiments; (ii) the joint variation of both the cosmological and astrophysical [governing the evolution of the free electron fraction x e (z)] parameters. Including a realistic, data-constrained reionization history in the analysis induces appreciable changes in the cosmological parameter values deduced through a standard WMAP7 analysis. Particularly noteworthy are the variations in Ω b h 2 =0.02258 -0.00056 +0.00057 [WMAP7 (Sudden)] vs Ω b h 2 =0.02183±0.00054[WMAP7+ASTRO (CF)] and the new constraints for the scalar spectral index, for which WMAP7+ASTRO (CF) excludes the Harrison-Zel'dovich value n s =1 at >3σ. Finally, the electron-scattering optical depth value is considerably decreased with respect to the standard WMAP7, i.e. τ e =0.080±0.012. We conclude that the inclusion of astrophysical data sets, allowing to robustly constrain the reionization history, in the extraction procedure of cosmological parameters leads to relatively important differences in the final determination of their values.

An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Shunsuke

2012-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

2017-12-01

The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-02-01

Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

Final report of the project CARBOFOR. Carbon sequestration in the big forest ecosystems in France. Quantification, spatialization, vulnerability and impacts of different climatic and forestry scenario; Rapport final du projet CARBOFOR. Sequestration de carbone dans les grands ecosystemes forestiers en France. Quantification, spatialisation, vulnerabilite et impacts de differents scenarios climatiques et sylvicoles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loustau, D

2004-06-15

The main outcomes of the project allowed to revise the carbon stock estimate of the national french forests, to clarify the interactions between climate and sylviculture according to the ecological profile of main species, to describe the changes in species area distribution for forest trees and pathogens. Different approaches for estimating the national carbon stock in forest biomass were investigated such as biomass equations and architectural models. Some conclusions in terms of adaptation scenario can be drawn. The global production potential of the french forest will be changed. This change is rapid and will occur a time interval shorter than average tree life duration. Species substitution and changing practices must be considered from now. The soil water holding capacity and the nutrient availability interact strongly with the climate effects and are therefore target factors for adapting forest stands to future changes. The dramatic change in the potential area distribution of most pathogens over France lead to recommend strong regulations for avoiding dissemination of fungal diseases and to anticipate the pathogen risks through species distribution. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant operations: implications for upstream water use

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset includes all data used in the creation of figures and graphs in the paper: "Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant operations:...

Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

2011-12-01

Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

2015-05-19

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glynn, James; Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Deane, J.P.; Bazilian, Morgan; Gallachóir, Brian Ó

2014-01-01

Ireland imports 88% of its energy requirements. Oil makes up 59% of total final energy consumption (TFC). Import dependency, low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave Ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security. This work models energy security scenarios for Ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050, with oil production and price scenarios from the International Monetary Fund, within the Irish TIMES energy systems model. The analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for Ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply (0.8% annual import growth, and –2% annual import decline) and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports. The results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for Ireland, at 54% total final energy consumption in 2020, supplanting oil from reference projections of 57% to 10.8% TFC. In 2012, the cost of net oil imports stood at €3.6 billion (2.26% GDP). The modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between €2.9bn and €7.5bn by 2020 (1.9–4.9% of GDP) to choose to develop a least cost energy system. Investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed. - Highlights: • We investigate energy security within a techno-economic model of Ireland to 2050. • We impose scenarios constraints of volume and price derived from IMF forecasting. • Continued high oil prices lead to natural gas supplanting oil at 54% TFC by 2020. • Declining oil production induces additional energy system costs of 7.9% GDP by 2020. • High oil and gas prices are likely to strain existing Irish gas import infrastructure

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

Science.gov (United States)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

2017-05-22

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

2014-05-01

97% lower compared to other anthropogenic sources like the public transport sector. The innovative sanitation scenarios were found to cause less environmental burden in terms of energy and GHGs. Nevertheless, to ensure a positive impact of these treatment systems, an optimum biogas reuse (for the production of electricity and heat), the source separation of human excreta (to disburden the wastewater treatment processes) should be introduced to reduce their GHG emissions. Keywords: Carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, methane, wastewater treatment technologies.

Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Li

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 ± 50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error. The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under 4 climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simioni, G.; Ritson, P.; McGrath, J.; Dumbrell, I.; Copeland, B.

2009-01-01

The future stem wood production and net ecosystem production of Pinus radiata plantations in southwestern Australia were estimated in this modelling study, which was conducted in order to determine the potential effects of anticipated severe rainfall reductions in the region. Four climate change and emission scenarios were considered as well as simulations of the present climate. Results of the study showed that stem wood production and NEP were not significantly influenced by moderate changes in temperature. However, stem wood production and NEP decreased significantly under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios. Results of the study suggested that a trade-off between the positive effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on plant and water use efficiency and the negative impacts of decreased rainfall and increased temperatures. Changes in heterotrophic respiration lagged behind changes in plant growth. It was concluded that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential will require modelling tools capable of characterizing interactions between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, as well as the potential range of climate change scenarios. 53 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Corbett

2010-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO₂ emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

Thermal-based modeling of coupled carbon, water, and energy fluxes using nominal light use efficiencies constrained by leaf chlorophyll observations

KAUST Repository

Schull, M. A.

2015-03-11

Recent studies have shown that estimates of leaf chlorophyll content (Chl), defined as the combined mass of chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b per unit leaf area, can be useful for constraining estimates of canopy light use efficiency (LUE). Canopy LUE describes the amount of carbon assimilated by a vegetative canopy for a given amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and is a key parameter for modeling land-surface carbon fluxes. A carbon-enabled version of the remote-sensing-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model simulates coupled canopy transpiration and carbon assimilation using an analytical sub-model of canopy resistance constrained by inputs of nominal LUE (βn), which is modulated within the model in response to varying conditions in light, humidity, ambient CO2 concentration, and temperature. Soil moisture constraints on water and carbon exchange are conveyed to the TSEB-LUE indirectly through thermal infrared measurements of land-surface temperature. We investigate the capability of using Chl estimates for capturing seasonal trends in the canopy βn from in situ measurements of Chl acquired in irrigated and rain-fed fields of soybean and maize near Mead, Nebraska. The results show that field-measured Chl is nonlinearly related to βn, with variability primarily related to phenological changes during early growth and senescence. Utilizing seasonally varying βn inputs based on an empirical relationship with in situ measured Chl resulted in improvements in carbon flux estimates from the TSEB model, while adjusting the partitioning of total water loss between plant transpiration and soil evaporation. The observed Chl-βn relationship provides a functional mechanism for integrating remotely sensed Chl into the TSEB model, with the potential for improved mapping of coupled carbon, water, and energy fluxes across vegetated landscapes.

Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

1999-01-01

The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

Continuous In-situ Measurements of Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) and Carbon Dioxide Isotopes to Constrain Ecosystem Carbon and Water Exchanges

Science.gov (United States)

Rastogi, B.; Still, C. J.; Noone, D. C.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Whelan, M.; Lai, C. T.; Hollinger, D. Y.; Gupta, M.; Leen, J. B.; Huang, Y. W.

2015-12-01

Understanding the processes that control the terrestrial exchange of carbon and water are critical for examining the role of forested ecosystems in changing climates. A small but increasing number of studies have identified Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) as a potential tracer for photosynthesis. OCS is hydrolyzed by an irreversible reaction in leaf mesophyll cells that is catalyzed by the enzyme, carbonic anhydrase. Leaf- level field and greenhouse studies indicate that OCS uptake is controlled by stomatal activity and that the ratio of OCS and CO2 uptake is reasonably constant. Existing studies on ecosystem OCS exchange have been based on laboratory measurements or short field campaigns and therefore little information on OCS exchange in a natural ecosystem over longer timescales is available. The objective of this study is to further assess the stability of OCS as a tracer for canopy photosynthesis in an active forested ecosystem and also to assess its utility for constraining transpiration, since both fluxes are mediated by canopy stomatal conductance. An off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy analyzer (Los Gatos Research Inc.) was deployed at the Wind River Experimental Forest in Washington (45.8205°N, 121.9519°W). Canopy air was sampled from four heights as well as the soil to measure vertical gradients of OCS within the canopy, and OCS exchange between the forest and the atmosphere for the growing season. Here we take advantage of simultaneous measurements of the stable isotopologues of H2O and CO2 at corresponding heights as well as NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange) from eddy covariance measurements to compare GPP (Gross Primary Production) and transpiration estimates from a variety of independent techniques. Our findings also seek to allow assessment of the environmental and ecophysicological controls on evapotranspiration rates, which are projected to change in coming decades, and are otherwise poorly constrained.

Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2005-03-30

This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

Science.gov (United States)

Bouttes, N.; Paillard, D.; Roche, D. M.; Waelbroeck, C.; Kageyama, M.; Lourantou, A.; Michel, E.; Bopp, L.

2012-01-01

During the last termination (from ~18 000 years ago to ~9000 years ago), the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a coupled climate-carbon model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependent diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 years ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. In this scenario, we make the hypothesis that sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario, it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the long-term CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H2)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.

2003-08-01

Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO 2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace existing carbon-based energy use. The use of hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis, resolves the intractability of on-board storage of electricity, and provides a distributed source. This paper first reviews the scenarios for future energy use and supply created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are also representative of the main IAEA/NEA scenarios. It then discusses ways in which non-carbon-based energy can be applied to the transportation sector in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the potential effects of this application have been calculated for the key IPCC marker scenarios using the MAGICC-SCENGEN software package. A mechanism inherent in the model can provide quite accurate prediction of the effect of CO 2 concentration on global temperatures 20 years later. This provides a useful and new way to estimate the effects of delayed action to reduce CO 2 emissions. The IPCC's scenarios already include considerable expansion of energy from nuclear and other sustainable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass), but the extent is generally too small to substantially restrain the build-up of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and to diminish the consequent projected rate of rise of average global temperatures. Much greater substitution is needed, and this paper argues that only nuclear power can provide the preponderant source of energy for a sufficient and sustainable switch away from carbon. Though the storage of spent-fuel wastes is now developed technology, waste disposal is often cited as a constraint on nuclear power. It is a strange objection given that

Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jed O. Kaplan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

Continuous In-situ Measurements of Carbonyl Sulfide to Constrain Ecosystem Carbon and Water Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Rastogi, B.; Kim, Y.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Noone, D. C.; Lai, C. T.; Hollinger, D. Y.; Bible, K.; Leen, J. B.; Gupta, M.; Still, C. J.

2014-12-01

Understanding the processes that control the terrestrial exchange of carbon and water are critical for examining the role of forested ecosystems in changing climates. A small but increasing number of studies have identified Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) as a potential tracer for photosynthesis. OCS is hydrolyzed by an irreversible reaction in leaf mesophyll cells that is catalyzed by the enzyme, carbonic anhydrase. Leaf-level field and greenhouse studies indicate that OCS uptake is controlled by stomatal activity and that the ratio of OCS and CO2 uptake is reasonably constant. Existing studies on ecosystem OCS exchange have been based on laboratory measurements or short field campaigns and therefore little information on OCS exchange in a natural ecosystem over longer timescales is available. The objective of this study is to further assess the stability of OCS as a tracer for canopy photosynthesis in an active forested ecosystem and also to assess its utility for constraining transpiration, since both fluxes are mediated by canopy stomatal conductance. An off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy analyzer (Los Gatos Research Inc.) was deployed at the Wind River Experimental Forest in Washington (45.8205°N, 121.9519°W). Canopy air was sampled from three heights to measure vertical gradients of OCS within the canopy, and OCS exchange between the forest and the atmosphere. Here we take advantage of simultaneous measurements of the stable isotopologues of H2O and CO2 at corresponding heights as well as NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange) from eddy covariance measurements to compare GPP (Gross Primary Production) and transpiration estimates from a variety of independent techniques. Our findings seek to allow assessment of the environmental and ecophysicological controls on evapotranspiration rates, which are projected to change in coming decades, and are otherwise poorly constrained.

Final report of the project CARBOFOR. Carbon sequestration in the big forest ecosystems in France. Quantification, spatialization, vulnerability and impacts of different climatic and forestry scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loustau, D.

2004-06-01

The main outcomes of the project allowed to revise the carbon stock estimate of the national french forests, to clarify the interactions between climate and sylviculture according to the ecological profile of main species, to describe the changes in species area distribution for forest trees and pathogens. Different approaches for estimating the national carbon stock in forest biomass were investigated such as biomass equations and architectural models. Some conclusions in terms of adaptation scenario can be drawn. The global production potential of the french forest will be changed. This change is rapid and will occur a time interval shorter than average tree life duration. Species substitution and changing practices must be considered from now. The soil water holding capacity and the nutrient availability interact strongly with the climate effects and are therefore target factors for adapting forest stands to future changes. The dramatic change in the potential area distribution of most pathogens over France lead to recommend strong regulations for avoiding dissemination of fungal diseases and to anticipate the pathogen risks through species distribution. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050: What's at stake for heavy industries?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-11-01

Launched in 2004, the study Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050: What's at stake for heavy industries explores how major industrial sectors will be impacted by a carbon constraint stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentration at 450 ppm. By means of an innovative hybrid modelling platform and ongoing dialogue between researchers and industrialists, the study produces conclusions concerning both general climate policy as well as the economic response of industrial sectors - specifically of the steel, aluminium, cement, and sheet glass sectors, as well as of the energy sector. (authors)

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

2013-12-01

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

Modeling the Greek energy system: Scenarios of clean energy use and their implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roinioti, Argiro; Koroneos, Christopher; Wangensteen, Ivar

2012-01-01

The Greek energy system is one of the most carbon intensive energy systems in Europe. Hydrocarbons and solid fuels (lignite) cover over 80% of the final energy demand. The main objective of this work is to build energy scenarios for the future – with a focus on the electricity production system – and explore how these scenarios are reflected in economic, environmental terms and in terms of energy efficiency. The main tool which is used in the scenario analysis is LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The scenarios are essentially the result of developing “storylines” driven by the uncertainties which cannot be controlled by the analysts or decision makers, and technical and non-technical options the analyst or decision maker may choose from. A set of uncertainties is considered as a possible future or storyline, and one or more options can be selected as a possible strategy. The combination of a storyline and a specific strategy gives a scenario. The main uncertainties for the Greek energy system are identified and various technical options are explored. Rather than using a model which leads to optimum strategies from a set of alternatives, the model in use will apply different strategies. - Highlights: ► A demand-driven approach was used to build energy scenarios for the Greek interconnected system. ► Each Scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy. ► High RES penetration will decrease CO 2 emissions but it will also increase capital cost. ► Carbon intensity is reduced in all the scenarios.

Actions on climate change, Intended Reducing carbon emissions in China via optimal industry shifts: Toward hi-tech industries, cleaner resources and higher carbon shares in less-develop regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu, Xue; Lahr, Michael; Yaxiong, Zhang; Meng, Bo

2017-01-01

This paper uses an optimal interregional input-output model to focus on how interregional industrial shifts alone might enable China to reduce carbon intensity instead of national shifts. The optimal industry shifts assure integration of all regions by regional products and goods in which carbon emissions are embodied via energy consumption. Generally speaking, high-tech industries concentrate in affluent regions to replace construction. Selected services increase output shares across most of regions. Meanwhile, energy-intensive manufacturing, rather than agriculture, decrease their shares to achieve the national annual growth constrained by nation’s carbon targets. Due to the need to decelerate energy use, carbon intensity goal puts particularly extreme pressure on less-developed regions to shutter heavy industries. Explicit shifts toward cleaner resources and renewable energy appear to be quite important for coal mines in Central China. - Highlights: • The model optimizes GDP constrained by industry-based emissions targets. • Scenario on carbon intensity, growth rate, energy mix, and technology advance. • Interregional I-O table informs technology, industry mix, and interregional trade. • China could raise the output of high-tech in South Coast and of selected services. • Shifts toward cleaner resources and renewable energy are important in the Central.

Government control or low carbon lifestyle? – Analysis and application of a novel selective-constrained energy-saving and emission-reduction dynamic evolution system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Guochang; Tian, Lixin; Fu, Min; Sun, Mei

2014-01-01

This paper explores a novel selective-constrained energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) dynamic evolution system, analyzing the impact of cost of conserved energy (CCE), government control, low carbon lifestyle and investment in new technology of ESER on energy intensity and economic growth. Based on artificial neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified. Taking the real situation in China for instance, an empirical study is undertaken by adjusting the parameters of the actual system. The dynamic evolution behavior of energy intensity and economic growth in reality are observed, with the results in perfect agreement with actual situation. The research shows that the introduction of CCE into ESER system will have certain restrictive effect on energy intensity in the earlier period. However, with the further development of the actual system, carbon emissions could be better controlled and energy intensity would decline. In the long run, the impacts of CCE on economic growth are positive. Government control and low carbon lifestyle play a decisive role in controlling ESER system and declining energy intensity. But the influence of government control on economic growth should be considered at the same time and the controlling effect of low carbon lifestyle on energy intensity should be strengthened gradually, while the investment in new technology of ESER can be neglected. Two different cases of ESER are proposed after a comprehensive analysis. The relations between variables and constraint conditions in the ESER system are harmonized remarkably. A better solution to carry out ESER is put forward at last, with numerical simulations being carried out to demonstrate the results. - Highlights: • Use of nonlinear dynamical method to model the selective-constrained ESER system. • Monotonic evolution curves of energy intensity and economic growth are obtained. • Detailed analysis of the game between government control and low

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Formulation and evaluation of gas release scenarios for the silo in Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlsson, J.; Moreno, L.

1992-01-01

The Swedish Final Repository for Radioactive Waste (SFR) has been in operation since 1988 and is located in the crystalline rock, 60 m below the Baltic Sea. In the licensing procedure for the SFR the safety assessment has been complemented with a detailed scenario analysis of the performance of the repository. The scenarios include the influence on radionuclide release by gas formation and gas transport processes in the silo. The overall conclusion is that the release of most radionuclides from the silo is only marginally affected by the formation and release of gas, even for scenarios considering unexpected events. The largest effects were found for short-lived radionuclides and radionuclides that have no or low sorption ability. Except for very extreme scenarios for the silo the overall impact from repository on the environment is by far dominated by the release of radionuclides from the rock vaults. 10 refs., 6 figs

Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H{sub 2})

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B

2003-08-01

Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO{sub 2} levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace existing carbon-based energy use. The use of hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis, resolves the intractability of on-board storage of electricity, and provides a distributed source. This paper first reviews the scenarios for future energy use and supply created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are also representative of the main IAEA/NEA scenarios. It then discusses ways in which non-carbon-based energy can be applied to the transportation sector in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the potential effects of this application have been calculated for the key IPCC marker scenarios using the MAGICC-SCENGEN software package. A mechanism inherent in the model can provide quite accurate prediction of the effect of CO{sub 2} concentration on global temperatures 20 years later. This provides a useful and new way to estimate the effects of delayed action to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. The IPCC's scenarios already include considerable expansion of energy from nuclear and other sustainable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass), but the extent is generally too small to substantially restrain the build-up of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and to diminish the consequent projected rate of rise of average global temperatures. Much greater substitution is needed, and this paper argues that only nuclear power can provide the preponderant source of energy for a sufficient and sustainable switch away from carbon. Though the storage of spent-fuel wastes is now developed technology, waste disposal is often cited as a constraint on nuclear power. It is

Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H{sub 2})

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, A I; Duffey, R B

2003-08-01

Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO{sub 2} levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace existing carbon-based energy use. The use of hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis, resolves the intractability of on-board storage of electricity, and provides a distributed source. This paper first reviews the scenarios for future energy use and supply created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are also representative of the main IAEA/NEA scenarios. It then discusses ways in which non-carbon-based energy can be applied to the transportation sector in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the potential effects of this application have been calculated for the key IPCC marker scenarios using the MAGICC-SCENGEN software package. A mechanism inherent in the model can provide quite accurate prediction of the effect of CO{sub 2} concentration on global temperatures 20 years later. This provides a useful and new way to estimate the effects of delayed action to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. The IPCC's scenarios already include considerable expansion of energy from nuclear and other sustainable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass), but the extent is generally too small to substantially restrain the build-up of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and to diminish the consequent projected rate of rise of average global temperatures. Much greater substitution is needed, and this paper argues that only nuclear power can provide the preponderant source of energy for a sufficient and sustainable switch away from carbon. Though the storage of spent-fuel wastes is now developed technology, waste disposal is often cited as a constraint on nuclear power. It is a strange

Constraining sleptons at the LHC in a supersymmetric low-scale seesaw scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cerna-Velazco, Nhell; Jones-Perez, Joel [Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Seccion Fisica, Departamento de Ciencias, Lima (Peru); Faber, Thomas; Porod, Werner [Uni Wuerzburg, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Wuerzburg (Germany)

2017-10-15

We consider a scenario inspired by natural supersymmetry, where neutrino data is explained within a low-scale seesaw scenario. We extend the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model by adding light right-handed neutrinos and their superpartners, the R-sneutrinos, and consider the lightest neutralinos to be higgsino-like. We consider the possibilities of having either an R-sneutrino or a higgsino as lightest supersymmetric particle. Assuming that squarks and gauginos are heavy, we systematically evaluate the bounds on slepton masses due to existing LHC data. (orig.)

Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang, Van Thanh

2016-01-01

shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO_2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

A data assimilation framework for constraining upscaled cropland carbon flux seasonality and biometry with MODIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Sus

2013-04-01

, observing carbon cycling at one single field with its individual sowing pattern is not sufficient to constrain large-scale agroecosystem carbon flux seasonality. Study area average growing season length is 20 days longer than observed at Bondville, primarily because of an earlier estimated start of season. (3 For carbon budgeting, additional information on cropland soil management and belowground carbon cycling has to be considered, as such constraints are not provided by MODIS.

The Forecast of Baoding’s Industrial Structure in Different Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei; Zhang, Hongzhi; Zhang, Shu

2018-01-01

In November 12th, 2014, Chinese government officially announced reaching the peak of CO2 emissions around 2030. Baoding, as one of the first low-carbon pilot cities in China, bore an important mission and set an example to other cities to reach the peak of carbon emissions before 2030. This paper employed a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the industrial structure and social welfare of Baoding in different scenarios. And the calculation results have shown that on the principle of the optimal industrial structure and the minimum social welfare loss and a consideration of industrial economic development, the best time of CO2 emissions peak for Baoding was 2025 when its total emissions would reach 2.84 million tons. Finally, some suggestions were given to guide this city to reduce carbon emissions in industrial development.

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

2016-06-01

The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

Grain Yield Observations Constrain Cropland CO2 Fluxes Over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Combe, M.; de Wit, A. J. W.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.; van der Molen, M. K.; Magliulo, V.; Peters, W.

2017-12-01

Carbon exchange over croplands plays an important role in the European carbon cycle over daily to seasonal time scales. A better description of this exchange in terrestrial biosphere models—most of which currently treat crops as unmanaged grasslands—is needed to improve atmospheric CO2 simulations. In the framework we present here, we model gross European cropland CO2 fluxes with a crop growth model constrained by grain yield observations. Our approach follows a two-step procedure. In the first step, we calculate day-to-day crop carbon fluxes and pools with the WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) model. A scaling factor of crop growth is optimized regionally by minimizing the final grain carbon pool difference to crop yield observations from the Statistical Office of the European Union. In a second step, we re-run our WOFOST model for the full European 25 × 25 km gridded domain using the optimized scaling factors. We combine our optimized crop CO2 fluxes with a simple soil respiration model to obtain the net cropland CO2 exchange. We assess our model's ability to represent cropland CO2 exchange using 40 years of observations at seven European FluxNet sites and compare it with carbon fluxes produced by a typical terrestrial biosphere model. We conclude that our new model framework provides a more realistic and strongly observation-driven estimate of carbon exchange over European croplands. Its products will be made available to the scientific community through the ICOS Carbon Portal and serve as a new cropland component in the CarbonTracker Europe inverse model.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

Does carbon isotope data help explain atmospheric CO2 concentrations during glacial periods?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverson, K.; Le Grand, P.

2002-01-01

An inverse ocean box modeling approach is used to address the question of what may have caused decreased atmospheric CO 2 concentration during glacial periods. The inverse procedure seeks solutions that are consistent, within prescribed uncertainties, with both available paleodata constraints and box model conservation equations while relaxing traditional assumptions such as exact steady state and precise prescription of uncertain model parameters. Decreased ventilation of Southern Ocean deep water, decreased Southern Ocean air-sea gas exchange, and enhanced high latitude biological pumping are all shown to be individually capable of explaining available paleodata constraints provided that significant calcium carbonate compensation is allowed. None of the scenarios require more than a very minor (order 1 deg. C) glacial reduction in low to mid latitude sea surface temperature although scenarios with larger changes are equally plausible. One explanation for the fairly wide range of plausible solutions is that most paleo-data directly constrain the inventory of paleo-tracers but only indirectly constrain their fluxes. Because the various scenarios that have been proposed to explain pCO 2 levels during the last glacial maximum are distinguished primarily by different fluxes, the data, including ocean 13 C concentrations, do not allow one to confidently chose between them. Oceanic 14 C data for the last glacial maximum, which can constrain water mass fluxes, present an excellent potential solution to this problem if their reliability is demonstrated in the future. (author)

Scenarios in tropical forest degradation: carbon stock trajectories for REDD+

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael B. de Andrade

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Human-caused disturbance to tropical rainforests—such as logging and fire—causes substantial losses of carbon stocks. This is a critical issue to be addressed in the context of policy discussions to implement REDD+. This work reviews current scientific knowledge about the temporal dynamics of degradation-induced carbon emissions to describe common patterns of emissions from logging and fire across tropical forest regions. Using best available information, we: (i develop short-term emissions factors (per area for logging and fire degradation scenarios in tropical forests; and (ii describe the temporal pattern of degradation emissions and recovery trajectory post logging and fire disturbance. Results Average emissions from aboveground biomass were 19.9 MgC/ha for logging and 46.0 MgC/ha for fire disturbance, with an average period of study of 3.22 and 2.15 years post-disturbance, respectively. Longer-term studies of post-logging forest recovery suggest that biomass accumulates to pre-disturbance levels within a few decades. Very few studies exist on longer-term (>10 years effects of fire disturbance in tropical rainforests, and recovery patterns over time are unknown. Conclusions This review will aid in understanding whether degradation emissions are a substantial component of country-level emissions portfolios, or whether these emissions would be offset by forest recovery and regeneration.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

2016-11-30

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Chrysotile dissolution rates: Implications for carbon sequestration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thom, James G.M.; Dipple, Gregory M.; Power, Ian M.; Harrison, Anna L.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainties in serpentine dissolution kinetics hinder carbon sequestration models. • A pH dependent, far from equilibrium dissolution rate law for chrysotile. • F chrysotile (mol/m 2 /s) = 10 −0.21pH−10.57 at 22 °C over pH 2–10. • Laboratory dissolution rates consistent with mine waste weathering observations. • Potential for carbon sequestration in mine tailings and aquifers is assessed. - Abstract: Serpentine minerals (e.g., chrysotile) are a potentially important medium for sequestration of CO 2 via carbonation reactions. The goals of this study are to report a steady-state, far from equilibrium chrysotile dissolution rate law and to better define what role serpentine dissolution kinetics will have in constraining rates of carbon sequestration via serpentine carbonation. The steady-state dissolution rate of chrysotile in 0.1 m NaCl solutions was measured at 22 °C and pH ranging from 2 to 8. Dissolution experiments were performed in a continuously stirred flow-through reactor with the input solutions pre-equilibrated with atmospheric CO 2 . Both Mg and Si steady-state fluxes from the chrysotile surface, and the overall chrysotile flux were regressed and the following empirical relationships were obtained: F Mg =-0.22pH-10.02;F Si =-0.19pH-10.37;F chrysotile =-0.21pH-10.57 where F Mg , F Si , and F chrysotile are the log 10 Mg, Si, and molar chrysotile fluxes in mol/m 2 /s, respectively. Element fluxes were used in reaction-path calculations to constrain the rate of CO 2 sequestration in two geological environments that have been proposed as potential sinks for anthropogenic CO 2 . Carbon sequestration in chrysotile tailings at 10 °C is approximately an order of magnitude faster than carbon sequestration in a serpentinite-hosted aquifer at 60 °C on a per kilogram of water basis. A serpentinite-hosted aquifer, however, provides a larger sequestration capacity. The chrysotile dissolution rate law determined in this study has

Areas of progress towards a factor 4 territorial coherence scheme. Which local levers for a post-carbon conurbation? Final report - Scenario 2020-2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beauvais, Jean Marie; Metais, Benedicte; Baratier, Jerome; Vidalenc, Eric

2011-01-01

Taking the Tours conurbation as an example, this study examines how to elaborate and define a new territorial coherence scheme (a land and urban planning tool) which would include a planned reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by a factor 4 between 2020 and 2030. It is therefore a prospective study with 2006 as a reference year (reductions are assessed with respect to 2006 due to data availability). After an analysis of the reference situation (2006) and of objectives, the report presents the scenario for 2020-2030, analyses the various levers in different sectors (mobility, housing, office building, industry and construction, agriculture), and examines possibilities related to the production of renewable energy, the adaptation to climate change, the creation of a new governance to mitigate and to adapt to climate change. Expected gains are discussed for transports, housing, office building, industry, agriculture, renewable energies, and adaptation. The last part reports a sensitive approach to a post-carbon world through different workshops (with children or within a fiction writing workshop)

The European forest sector: past and future carbon budget and fluxes under different management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pilli, Roberto; Grassi, Giacomo; Kurz, Werner A.; Fiorese, Giulia; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-05-01

The comprehensive analysis of carbon stocks and fluxes of managed European forests is a prerequisite to quantify their role in biomass production and climate change mitigation. We applied the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) to 26 European countries, parameterized with country information on the historical forest age structure, management practices, harvest regimes and the main natural disturbances. We modeled the C stocks for the five forest pools plus harvested wood products (HWPs) and the fluxes among these pools from 2000 to 2030. The aim is to quantify, using a consistent modeling framework for all 26 countries, the main C fluxes as affected by land-use changes, natural disturbances and forest management and to assess the impact of specific harvest and afforestation scenarios after 2012 on the mitigation potential of the EU forest sector. Substitution effects and the possible impacts of climate are not included in this analysis. Results show that for the historical period from 2000 to 2012 the net primary productivity (NPP) of the forest pools at the EU level is on average equal to 639 Tg C yr-1. The losses are dominated by heterotrophic respiration (409 Tg C yr-1) and removals (110 Tg C yr-1), with direct fire emissions being only 1 Tg C yr-1, leading to a net carbon stock change (i.e., sink) of 110 Tg C yr-1. Fellings also transferred 28 Tg C yr-1 of harvest residues from biomass to dead organic matter pools. The average annual net sector exchange (NSE) of the forest system, i.e., the carbon stock changes in the forest pools including HWP, equals a sink of 122 Tg C yr-1 (i.e., about 19 % of the NPP) for the historical period, and in 2030 it reaches 126, 101 and 151 Tg C yr-1, assuming constant, increasing (+20 %) and decreasing (-20 %) scenarios, respectively, of both harvest and afforestation rates compared to the historical period. Under the constant harvest rate scenario, our findings show an incipient aging process of the forests existing in 1990: although NPP

Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2003-01-01

The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Wenying

2005-01-01

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China's reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China's primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000-2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China's marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling

Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

2010-12-15

In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Application of Crunch-Flow Routines to Constrain Present and Past Carbon Fluxes at Gas-Hydrate Bearing Sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Torres, Marta [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States). College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences

2014-01-31

In November 2012, Oregon State University initiated the project entitled: Application of Crunch-Flow routines to constrain present and past carbon fluxes at gas-hydrate bearing sites. Within this project we developed Crunch-Flow based modeling modules that include important biogeochemical processes that need to be considered in gas hydrate environments. Our modules were applied to quantify carbon cycling in present and past systems, using data collected during several DOE-supported drilling expeditions, which include the Cascadia margin in US, Ulleung Basin in South Korea, and several sites drilled offshore India on the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Specifically, we completed modeling efforts that: 1) Reproduce the compositional and isotopic profiles observed at the eight drilled sites in the Ulleung Basin that constrain and contrast the carbon cycling pathways at chimney (high methane flux) and non-chimney sites (low methane, advective systems); 2) Simulate the Ba record in the sediments to quantify the past dynamics of methane flux in the southern Hydrate Ridge, Cascadia margin; and 3) Provide quantitative estimates of the thickness of individual mass transport deposits (MTDs), time elapsed after the MTD event, rate of sulfate reduction in the MTD, and time required to reach a new steady state at several sites drilled in the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) Basin off India. In addition we developed a hybrid model scheme by coupling a home-made MATLAB code with CrunchFlow to address the methane transport and chloride enrichment at the Ulleung Basins chimney sites, and contributed the modeling component to a study focusing on pore-scale controls on gas hydrate distribution in sediments from the Andaman Sea. These efforts resulted in two manuscripts currently under review, and contributed the modeling component of another pare, also under review. Lessons learned from these efforts are the basis of a mini-workshop to be held at Oregon State University (Feb 2014) to instruct

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pengyan Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

Constraining new physics models with isotope shift spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Frugiuele, Claudia; Fuchs, Elina; Perez, Gilad; Schlaffer, Matthias

2017-07-01

Isotope shifts of transition frequencies in atoms constrain generic long- and intermediate-range interactions. We focus on new physics scenarios that can be most strongly constrained by King linearity violation such as models with B -L vector bosons, the Higgs portal, and chameleon models. With the anticipated precision, King linearity violation has the potential to set the strongest laboratory bounds on these models in some regions of parameter space. Furthermore, we show that this method can probe the couplings relevant for the protophobic interpretation of the recently reported Be anomaly. We extend the formalism to include an arbitrary number of transitions and isotope pairs and fit the new physics coupling to the currently available isotope shift measurements.

Could a secular increase in organic burial explain the rise of oxygen? Insights from a geological carbon cycle model constrained by the carbon isotope record

Science.gov (United States)

Krissansen-Totton, J.; Kipp, M.; Catling, D. C.

2017-12-01

The stable isotopes of carbon in marine sedimentary rock provide a window into the evolution of the Earth system. Conventionally, a relatively constant carbon isotope ratio in marine sedimentary rocks has been interpreted as implying constant organic carbon burial relative to total carbon burial. Because organic carbon burial corresponds to net oxygen production from photosynthesis, it follows that secular changes in the oxygen source flux cannot explain the dramatic rise of oxygen over Earth history. Instead, secular declines in oxygen sink fluxes are often invoked as causes for the rise of oxygen. However, constant fractional organic burial is difficult to reconcile with tentative evidence for low phosphate concentrations in the Archean ocean, which would imply lower marine productivity and—all else being equal—less organic carbon burial than today. The conventional interpretation of the carbon isotope record rests on the untested assumption that the isotopic ratio of carbon inputs into the ocean reflect mantle isotopic values throughout Earth history. In practice, differing rates of carbonate and organic weathering will allow for changes in isotopic inputs, as suggested by [1] and [2]. However, these inputs can not vary freely because large changes in isotopic inputs would induce secular trends in carbon reservoirs, which are not observed in the isotope record. We apply a geological carbon cycle model to all Earth history, tracking carbon isotopes in crustal, mantle, and ocean reservoirs. Our model is constrained by the carbon isotope record such that we can determine the extent to which large changes in organic burial are permitted. We find both constant organic burial and 3-5 fold increases in organic burial since 4.0 Ga can be reconciled with the carbon isotope record. Changes in the oxygen source flux thus need to be reconsidered as a possible contributor to Earth's oxygenation. [1] L. A. Derry, Organic carbon cycling and the lithosphere, in Treatise on

The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

Science.gov (United States)

Decarolis, Joseph Frank

Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Constraining the cause of the end-Guadalupian extinction with coupled records of carbon and calcium isotopes

Science.gov (United States)

Jost, A. B.; Mundil, R.; He, B.; Brown, S. T.; Altiner, D.; Sun, Y.; DePaolo, D. J.; Payne, J.

2013-12-01

A negative δ13C excursion in carbonate sediments from Guadalupian (Middle Permian) and Lopingian (Late Permian) stratigraphic sections has been interpreted to result from a large carbon cycle disturbance during end-Guadalupian extinction event (ca. 260 Ma). However, the carbon isotope data alone are insufficient to uniquely determine the type and magnitude of perturbations to the global carbon cycle. The carbon and calcium cycles are coupled via CaCO3 burial, so changes in calcium isotopes can be used to constrain the cause of a carbon isotope excursion. In this study, we present coupled carbon and calcium isotope records from three Guadalupian-Lopingian (G/L) sections in China and Turkey. Isotope records among our studied sections are inconsistent in both their δ13C and δ44/40Ca records. Similar inconsistencies in δ13C among sections occur across previously published datasets. Sections with large (>3‰) changes in δ13C either show evidence for diagenetic alteration or do not show δ13C and δ44/40Ca changes consistent with severe volcanic degassing from Emeishan or methane clathrate destabilization. We conclude that the large isotopic changes are more likely the result of local burial conditions or diagenetic effects, rather than a large carbon cycle disturbance. Perturbations to the global carbon and calcium cycles appear to have been much smaller across the G/L transition than across the subsequent Permian-Triassic boundary. This finding is consistent with recent paleobiological data showing that the end-Guadalupian extinction was much less severe than previously believed, and was indistinguishable in magnitude from background intervals. However, selective extinction of marine animals with passive respiratory physiology indicates that the G/L extinction cannot simply be due to background extinction or sampling failure, and that it was triggered by some environmental event. Therefore, any environmental event must have been small enough to not generate large

Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozenberg, Julie; Narloch, Ulf; Hallegatte, Stephane; Davis, Steven J

2015-01-01

Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO 2 emissions (future emissions expected to come from existing capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2 °C target which allow for continued gross domestic product growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2 °C target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO 2 /$—much lower than the global average today, at 360 g CO 2 /$. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2 °C carbon budget by 1.0–1.5 g CO 2 /$, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO 2 intensity of new production by 20–50 g CO 2 /$. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3 °C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2 °C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today. (letter)

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

2015-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn Thomas, R.; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; Ward, Eric J.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Albaugh, Timothy J.; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Burkhart, Harold E.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Fox, Thomas R.; Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A.; Martin, Timothy A.; Noormets, Asko; Sampson, David A.; Teskey, Robert O.

2017-07-01

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model-data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present

Estimating Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in Rice Paddies as Influenced by Climate Change under Scenario A2 and B2 of an i-EPIC model of Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noppol Arunrat

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Carbon sequestration in soils constitutes an important option that can be used to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere and reduce environmental impacts. Soil organic carbon (SOC is both a source of carbon release and a sink for carbon sequestration. Our objectives in this study were to validate the interactive Environmental Policy Impact Calculator (i-EPIC model version 0509, as well as to estimate SOC sequestration under climate change scenarios A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios in Thailand. The SOC estimated by i-EPIC was compared with data from the Office of Soil Resources Survey and Research, Land Development Department. The results indicated that performance testing of i-EPIC is able to estimate SOC. Validation of SOC proved to be satisfactory with a resulting root mean square error (RMSE % value of 34.60. The SOC content showed a decreasing trend under B2 and A2 climate scenarios (average 0.87% and 0.85%, respectively compared to the reference from 2007 (average 0.92%. Stepwise regression analysis also revealed that carbon from residue decomposition, biomass pool carbon, and the total change of the carbon pool were directly correlated with the SOC (R2= 0.99, p< 0.01. Furthermore, the change from rain supplied water to irrigation also resulted in an increase of carbon inputs but a decrease in the SOC sequestered during the 2007-2017 period. Regression analyses indicated that soil carbon sequestration responds linearly to carbon input. Significant changes in carbon input as well as decreases in SOC levels were observed as temperature and precipitation increased. Based on the testing and analysis, we concluded that i-EPIC is capable of reliably simulating effects of climate change on SOC sequestration. Based on the results, this knowledge and information can increase effectiveness in the promotion of integrated rice management for rice production in Thailand.

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

Constraining the sources and cycling of dissolved organic carbon in a large oligotrophic lake using radiocarbon analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Zigah, Prosper K.; Minor, Elizabeth C.; McNichol, Ann P.; Xu, Li; Werne, Josef P.

2017-07-01

We measured the concentrations and isotopic compositions of solid phase extracted (SPE) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and high molecular weight (HMW) DOC and their constituent organic components in order to better constrain the sources and cycling of DOC in a large oligotrophic lacustrine system (Lake Superior, North America). SPE DOC constituted a significant proportion (41-71%) of the lake DOC relative to HMW DOC (10-13%). Substantial contribution of 14C-depleted components to both SPE DOC (Δ14C = 25-43‰) and HMW DOC (Δ14C = 22-32‰) was evident during spring mixing, and depressed their radiocarbon values relative to the lake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; Δ14C ∼ 59‰). There was preferential removal of 14C-depleted (older) and thermally recalcitrant components from HMW DOC and SPE DOC in the summer. Contemporary photoautotrophic addition to HMW DOC was observed during summer stratification in contrast to SPE DOC, which decreased in concentration during stratification. Serial thermal oxidation radiocarbon analysis revealed a diversity of sources (both contemporary and older) within the SPE DOC, and also showed distinct components within the HMW DOC. The thermally labile components of HMW DOC were 14C-enriched and are attributed to heteropolysaccharides (HPS), peptides/amide and amino sugars (AMS) relative to the thermally recalcitrant components reflecting the presence of older material, perhaps carboxylic-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM). The solvent extractable lipid-like fraction of HMW DOC was very 14C-depleted (as old as 1270-2320 14C years) relative to the carbohydrate-like and protein-like substances isolated by acid hydrolysis of HMW DOC. Our data constrain relative influences of contemporary DOC and old DOC, and DOC cycling in a modern freshwater ecosystem.

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Dark matter in a constrained E6 inspired SUSY model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Athron, P.; Harries, D.; Nevzorov, R.; Williams, A.G.

2016-01-01

We investigate dark matter in a constrained E 6 inspired supersymmetric model with an exact custodial symmetry and compare with the CMSSM. The breakdown of E 6 leads to an additional U(1) N symmetry and a discrete matter parity. The custodial and matter symmetries imply there are two stable dark matter candidates, though one may be extremely light and contribute negligibly to the relic density. We demonstrate that a predominantly Higgsino, or mixed bino-Higgsino, neutralino can account for all of the relic abundance of dark matter, while fitting a 125 GeV SM-like Higgs and evading LHC limits on new states. However we show that the recent LUX 2016 limit on direct detection places severe constraints on the mixed bino-Higgsino scenarios that explain all of the dark matter. Nonetheless we still reveal interesting scenarios where the gluino, neutralino and chargino are light and discoverable at the LHC, but the full relic abundance is not accounted for. At the same time we also show that there is a huge volume of parameter space, with a predominantly Higgsino dark matter candidate that explains all the relic abundance, that will be discoverable with XENON1T. Finally we demonstrate that for the E 6 inspired model the exotic leptoquarks could still be light and within range of future LHC searches.

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

Balancing computation and communication power in power constrained clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Piga, Leonardo; Paul, Indrani; Huang, Wei

2018-05-29

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for balancing computation and communication power in power constrained environments. A data processing cluster with a plurality of compute nodes may perform parallel processing of a workload in a power constrained environment. Nodes that finish tasks early may be power-gated based on one or more conditions. In some scenarios, a node may predict a wait duration and go into a reduced power consumption state if the wait duration is predicted to be greater than a threshold. The power saved by power-gating one or more nodes may be reassigned for use by other nodes. A cluster agent may be configured to reassign the unused power to the active nodes to expedite workload processing.

Brazilian environmental legislation and scenarios for carbon balance in Areas of Permanent Preservation (APP) in dairy livestock regions

Science.gov (United States)

Hott, M. C.; Fonseca, L. D.; Andrade, R. G.

2011-12-01

The present study aimed at mapping some categories of Areas of Permanent Preservation (APP) for natural regeneration of semideciduous forests in the regions of Zona da Mata and Campo das Vertentes, Minas Gerais State (Figure 1), and from this to establish what impact the deployment of APP over area of pastures and subsequently milk production and carbon sequestration, considering areas of pasture as one of major factors for the dairy farming in the regions concerned. From the altimetric information from MDE, it was possible to extract morphological and morphometrical data to estimate the areas of APP. We used imagery of MODIS/Terra for extraction of the pastures areas from the vegetation index data NDVI to intersect with the estimated area of APP. In a linear or deterministic scenario of deployment of APPs over in the pasture areas considering that wich are proportionately responsible for sizing the herd, and thus for the milk production in extensive livestock, despite the existence of numerous other factors, there would be an impact 12% in the production of Campo das Vertentes region and 21.5% for the Zona da Mata. In this scenario, according to the carbon balance of forests and livestock, there would be a positive balance with the deployment of areas of permanent preservation and, subsequent promotion of natural regeneration. Considering the current grazing area of the Zona da Mata and Campo das Vertentes, 1.6 million hectares, with the carbon balance estimated at 1 ton/hectare/year, 300,000 hectares would have a balance of 5 ton/hectare/year in whole cycle of 40 years, totaling 200 tons carbon by hectare, or additional 48 million tons fixed, considering 4 tons more than pastures in the case of semideciduous forest. At the end of the cycle or forest climax, there would still be positive carbon balance, estimated as a balance of 2 ton/hectare/year. However, despite the higher carbon balance for the semideciduous forest, compared to livestock, it is important to

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Self-constrained inversion of potential fields

Science.gov (United States)

Paoletti, V.; Ialongo, S.; Florio, G.; Fedi, M.; Cella, F.

2013-11-01

We present a potential-field-constrained inversion procedure based on a priori information derived exclusively from the analysis of the gravity and magnetic data (self-constrained inversion). The procedure is designed to be applied to underdetermined problems and involves scenarios where the source distribution can be assumed to be of simple character. To set up effective constraints, we first estimate through the analysis of the gravity or magnetic field some or all of the following source parameters: the source depth-to-the-top, the structural index, the horizontal position of the source body edges and their dip. The second step is incorporating the information related to these constraints in the objective function as depth and spatial weighting functions. We show, through 2-D and 3-D synthetic and real data examples, that potential field-based constraints, for example, structural index, source boundaries and others, are usually enough to obtain substantial improvement in the density and magnetization models.

Searches for electroweak Higgsino production in compressed scenarios with ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Swiatlowski, Maximilian; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

Light Higgsinos are a common feature of natural models of Supersymmetry. Cases where the other SUSY particles are heavy, or where the lightest SUSY particles are mostly Higgsino, naturally lead to compressed mass spectra. Searches sensitive to these scenarios involve difficult detector signatures, including low-momentum leptons and disappearing tracks. This talk reviews recent results from searches in the Run 2 data with the ATLAS detector that constrain these scenarios, which provide the first constraints on light Higgsinos since LEP.

Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakobsson, Kristofer

2010-05-01

Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

Science.gov (United States)

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

System analytical assessment of the carbon balance in Austria. Final report part 1: carbon balance for 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orthofer, R.

1997-09-01

The report contains an analysis and quantification of the fluxes in the Austrian carbon system in 1990. Following subsystems were considered: agriculture, forestry, energy transformation and use, production and consumption of goods, and waste treatment. Austrian carbon imports and exports in products and goods were also quantified. The calculations for the forestry and agriculture sectors are based on the results of a dynamic model (cf. final report part 2) and for others on existing data or experts opinions. In total, Austria releases a net of 11,2 Mio t carbon (MTC) - which equals about 41,1 Mio t of CO 2 - into the atmosphere. This is about 1/3 less than the numbers for the 1990 carbon emission inventories which for 1990 were estimated with 17,0 MTC. Reasons for the differences between emission estimates and carbon balancing are the carbon storage in Austria's forests (5,3 MTC) and the mineralization of organic wastes (1,0 MTC) as well as other minor interactions. While the main pathway of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere goes from fossil fuel extraction and imports via the energy system, a considerable portion of carbon is transferred through other systems. This means in order to be able to plan effective greenhouse gas reduction strategies, the overall system must be considered. (author)

Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fisher, Rosie A.

2015-10-01

Earth System Models typically use static responses to temperature to calculate photosynthesis and respiration, but experimental evidence suggests that many plants acclimate to prevailing temperatures. We incorporated representations of photosynthetic and leaf respiratory temperature acclimation into the Community Land Model, the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model. These processes increased terrestrial carbon pools by 20 Pg C (22%) at the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate scenario. Including the less certain estimates of stem and root respiration acclimation increased terrestrial carbon pools by an additional 17 Pg C (~40% overall increase). High latitudes gained the most carbon with acclimation, and tropical carbon pools increased least. However, results from both of these regions remain uncertain; few relevant data exist for tropical and boreal plants or for extreme temperatures. Constraining these uncertainties will produce more realistic estimates of land carbon feedbacks throughout the 21st century.

Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Q. Thomas

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6  ×  105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field

Terrestrial Sagnac delay constraining modified gravity models

Science.gov (United States)

Karimov, R. Kh.; Izmailov, R. N.; Potapov, A. A.; Nandi, K. K.

2018-04-01

Modified gravity theories include f(R)-gravity models that are usually constrained by the cosmological evolutionary scenario. However, it has been recently shown that they can also be constrained by the signatures of accretion disk around constant Ricci curvature Kerr-f(R0) stellar sized black holes. Our aim here is to use another experimental fact, viz., the terrestrial Sagnac delay to constrain the parameters of specific f(R)-gravity prescriptions. We shall assume that a Kerr-f(R0) solution asymptotically describes Earth's weak gravity near its surface. In this spacetime, we shall study oppositely directed light beams from source/observer moving on non-geodesic and geodesic circular trajectories and calculate the time gap, when the beams re-unite. We obtain the exact time gap called Sagnac delay in both cases and expand it to show how the flat space value is corrected by the Ricci curvature, the mass and the spin of the gravitating source. Under the assumption that the magnitude of corrections are of the order of residual uncertainties in the delay measurement, we derive the allowed intervals for Ricci curvature. We conclude that the terrestrial Sagnac delay can be used to constrain the parameters of specific f(R) prescriptions. Despite using the weak field gravity near Earth's surface, it turns out that the model parameter ranges still remain the same as those obtained from the strong field accretion disk phenomenon.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Microelectrode characterization of coral daytime interior pH and carbonate chemistry.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wei-Jun; Ma, Yuening; Hopkinson, Brian M; Grottoli, Andréa G; Warner, Mark E; Ding, Qian; Hu, Xinping; Yuan, Xiangchen; Schoepf, Verena; Xu, Hui; Han, Chenhua; Melman, Todd F; Hoadley, Kenneth D; Pettay, D Tye; Matsui, Yohei; Baumann, Justin H; Levas, Stephen; Ying, Ye; Wang, Yongchen

2016-04-04

Reliably predicting how coral calcification may respond to ocean acidification and warming depends on our understanding of coral calcification mechanisms. However, the concentration and speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) inside corals remain unclear, as only pH has been measured while a necessary second parameter to constrain carbonate chemistry has been missing. Here we report the first carbonate ion concentration ([CO3(2-)]) measurements together with pH inside corals during the light period. We observe sharp increases in [CO3(2-)] and pH from the gastric cavity to the calcifying fluid, confirming the existence of a proton (H(+)) pumping mechanism. We also show that corals can achieve a high aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the calcifying fluid by elevating pH while at the same time keeping [DIC] low. Such a mechanism may require less H(+)-pumping and energy for upregulating pH compared with the high [DIC] scenario and thus may allow corals to be more resistant to climate change related stressors.

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Re-Industrialisation and Low-Carbon Economy—Can They Go Together? Results from Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North Rhine Westphalia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Lechtenböhmer

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL. This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050 mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage. All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of “re-industrialisation” for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050, would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC and the carbon capture and storage (CCS scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry—such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS—if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

2013-06-01

A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

THE DUBINS TRAVELING SALESMAN PROBLEM WITH CONSTRAINED COLLECTING MANEUVERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Váňa

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a variant of the Dubins traveling salesman problem (DTSP that is called the Dubins traveling salesman problem with constrained collecting maneuvers (DTSP-CM. In contrast to the ordinary formulation of the DTSP, in the proposed DTSP-CM, the vehicle is requested to visit each target by specified collecting maneuver to accomplish the mission. The proposed problem formulation is motivated by scenarios with unmanned aerial vehicles where particular maneuvers are necessary for accomplishing the mission, such as object dropping or data collection with sensor sensitive to changes in vehicle heading. We consider existing methods for the DTSP and propose its modifications to use these methods to address a variant of the introduced DTSP-CM, where the collecting maneuvers are constrained to straight line segments.

A search for beyond the Standard Model physics using a final state with light and boosted muon pairs at CMS experiment

CERN Document Server

Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo Martin

2017-01-01

A search for new physics phenomena is presented using a final state with multi-muons, the topology studied considers pairs of opposite sign muons (dimuons) with a low invariant mass and potentially produced far from the interaction point (displaced). Several beyond the Standard Model scenarios fit into this category, including those predicting Dark matter particles (i.e. dark photons) which weakly interact with SM particles via a kinetic mixing parameter and could have a non-negligible lifetime. Other scenario is the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM) that extends the higgs sector introducing new light bosons that can decay to muon pairs. The data analyzed corresponds to the one collected by CMS experiment during 2015 using 13 TeV collision energy. This search constrains a large, previously unconstrained area of the parameter space for each mode and allows for an easy reinterpretation for new physics models with similar final state.

Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

2013-01-01

Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

[Research on carbon reduction potential of electric vehicles for low-carbon transportation and its influencing factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Xiao-Qing; Li, Xiao-Nuo; Yang, Jian-Xin

2013-01-01

Transportation is the key industry of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions. The transformation of conventional gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles is an important initiative to realize the goal of developing low-carbon city through energy saving and emissions reduction, while electric vehicles (EV) will play an important role in this transition due to their advantage in energy saving and lower carbon emissions. After reviewing the existing researches on energy saving and emissions reduction of electric vehicles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting carbon emissions reduction. Combining with electric vehicles promotion program in Beijing, the paper analyzed carbon emissions and reduction potential of electric vehicles in six scenarios using the optimized energy consumption related carbon emissions model from the perspective of fuel life cycle. The scenarios included power energy structure, fuel type (energy consumption per 100 km), car type (CO2 emission factor of fuel), urban traffic conditions (speed), coal-power technologies and battery type (weight, energy efficiency). The results showed that the optimized model was able to estimate carbon emissions caused by fuel consumption more reasonably; electric vehicles had an obvious restrictive carbon reduction potential with the fluctuation of 57%-81.2% in the analysis of six influencing factors, while power energy structure and coal-power technologies play decisive roles in life-cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles with the reduction potential of 78.1% and 81.2%, respectively. Finally, some optimized measures were proposed to reduce transport energy consumption and carbon emissions during electric vehicles promotion including improving energy structure and coal technology, popularizing energy saving technologies and electric vehicles, accelerating the battery R&D and so on. The research provides scientific basis and methods for the policy development for the transition of new energy vehicles

Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios and implications for ecosystem function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen S. Findlay

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006: inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathaye, J.

1991-01-01

Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sungwook Yoon

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement, 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000, 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500, and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000. The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

Ecological Pressure of Carbon Footprint in Passenger Transport: Spatio-Temporal Changes and Regional Disparities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Ma

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Passenger transport has become a significant producer of carbon emissions in China, thus strongly contributing to climate change. In this paper, we first propose a model of ecological pressure of the carbon footprint in passenger transport (EPcfpt. In the model, the EPcfpt values of all the provinces and autonomous regions of China are calculated and analyzed during the period of 2006–2015. For the outlier EPcfpt values of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, the research areas are classified into two scenarios: the first scenario (all the provinces and autonomous regions and the second scenario (not including Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis of the first scenario shows that the EPcfpt might be randomly distributed, while it shows positive spatial autocorrelation in the second scenario. Furthermore, we carry out the local spatial autocorrelation analysis of the second scenario, and find that the low aggregation areas are the most common type and are mainly located in the west of China. Then the disparities in EPcfpt between China’s Eight Comprehensive Economic Zones are further analyzed. Finally, we put forward a number of policy recommendations in relation to the spatio-temporal changes and the regional disparities of EPcfpt in China. This study provides related references for proposing effective policy measures to reduce the ecological pressure of carbon emissions from the passenger transport sector.

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohareb, Eugene A.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

2014-01-01

Technological change has often been presented as a readily accepted means by which long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions can be achieved. Cities are the future centers of economic growth, with the global population becoming predominantly urban; hence, increases or reductions of GHG emissions are tied to their energy strategies. This research examines the likelihood of a developed world city (the Greater Toronto Area) achieving an 80% reduction in GHG emissions through policy-enabled technological change. Emissions are examined from 3 major sources: light duty passenger vehicles, residential buildings and commercial/institutional buildings. Logistic diffusion curves are applied for the adoption of alternative vehicle technologies, building retrofits and high performance new building construction. This research devises high, low and business-as-usual estimates of future technological adoption and finds that even aggressive scenarios are not sufficient to achieve an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. This further highlights the challenges faced in maintaining a relatively stable climate. Urban policy makers must consider that the longer the lag before this transition occurs, the greater the share of GHG emissions mitigation that must addressed through behavioural change in order to meet the 2050 target, which likely poses greater political challenges. - Highlights: • Explores policy options in a city targeting an 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050. • Aggressive building code changes will have minimal impact on GHG mitigation. • Support of low-carbon electricity for the majority of generation necessary by 2050. • Internal combustion engine use must be mostly eliminated from the vehicle stock. • Policies supporting elimination of physical exchange space should be promoted

76 FR 66893 - Certain Circular Welded Carbon Steel Pipes and Tubes From India, Thailand, and Turkey; Final...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-28

...] Certain Circular Welded Carbon Steel Pipes and Tubes From India, Thailand, and Turkey; Final Results of... circular welded carbon steel pipes and tubes from India, Thailand, and Turkey, pursuant to section 751(c..., Thailand, and Turkey. See Antidumping Duty Order; Certain Welded Carbon Steel Standard Pipes and Tubes from...

A fresh look into the interacting dark matter scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Escudero, Miguel; Lopez-Honorez, Laura; Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Villanueva-Domingo, Pablo

2018-06-01

The elastic scattering between dark matter particles and radiation represents an attractive possibility to solve a number of discrepancies between observations and standard cold dark matter predictions, as the induced collisional damping would imply a suppression of small-scale structures. We consider this scenario and confront it with measurements of the ionization history of the Universe at several redshifts and with recent estimates of the counts of Milky Way satellite galaxies. We derive a conservative upper bound on the dark matter-photon elastic scattering cross section of σγ DM non-cold dark matter candidates, such as interacting and warm dark matter scenarios. Let us emphasize that bounds of similar magnitude to the ones obtained here could be also derived for models with dark matter-neutrino interactions and would be as constraining as the tightest limits on such scenarios.

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

The sustainability of carbon sinks in forests. Studying the sensitivity of forest carbon sinks in the Netherlands, Europe and the Amazon to climate and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruijt, B.; Kramer, K.; Van den Wyngaert, I.; Groen, R.; Elbers, J.A.; Jans, W.W.P.

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of carbon sinks in managed or unmanaged forests of Europe and the Amazon. First, the functioning and seasonal variability of the carbon sink strength in forest ecosystems was analysed in relation to climate variability. For this, existing global data sets of ecosystem fluxes measured by eddy correlation were analysed. A simple, comprehensive empirical model was derived to represent these flux variabilities. Also, new soil respiration measurements were initiated in the Netherlands and Amazonia and their usefulness to understand the uptake- and emission components of carbon exchange was analysed. Then, two long-term forest dynamics models were parameterised (FORSPACE and CENTURY) for Dutch Pinus and Fagus forests, to study the development of forest carbon stocks over a century under different management and climate scenarios. Finally, using the empirical model as well as the long-term models, scenario predictions were made. It turns out that uptake rates are expected to decrease in a climate with higher temperatures, but that storage capacity for carbon can be expected to be slightly enhanced, especially if also the management intensity is carefully tuned down

Coding for Two Dimensional Constrained Fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Torben Vaarbye

2006-01-01

a first order model to model higher order constraints by the use of an alphabet extension. We present an iterative method that based on a set of conditional probabilities can help in choosing the large numbers of parameters of the model in order to obtain a stationary model. Explicit results are given...... for the No Isolated Bits constraint. Finally we present a variation of the encoding scheme of bit-stuffing that is applicable to the class of checkerboard constrained fields. It is possible to calculate the entropy of the coding scheme thus obtaining lower bounds on the entropy of the fields considered. These lower...... bounds are very tight for the Run-Length limited fields. Explicit bounds are given for the diamond constrained field as well....

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

2005-07-15

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

2005-07-01

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Carbon monoxide - hydrogen combustion characteristics in severe accident containment conditions. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-03-01

Carbon monoxide can be produced in severe accidents from interaction of ex-vessel molten core with concrete. Depending on the particular core-melt scenario, the type of concrete and geometric factors affecting the interaction, the quantities of carbon monoxide produced can vary widely, up to several volume percent in the containment. Carbon monoxide is a combustible gas. The carbon monoxide thus produced is in addition to the hydrogen produced by metal-water reactions and by radiolysis, and represents a possibly significant contribution to the combustible gas inventory in the containment. Assessment of possible accident loads to containment thus requires knowledge of the combustion properties of both CO and H 2 in the containment atmosphere. Extensive studies have been carried out and are still continuing in the nuclear industry to assess the threat of hydrogen in a severe reactor accident. However the contribution of carbon monoxide to the combustion threat has received less attention. Assessment of scenarios involving ex-vessel interactions require additional attention to the potential contribution of carbon monoxide to combustion loads in containment, as well as the effectiveness of mitigation measures designed for hydrogen to effectively deal with particular aspects of carbon monoxide. The topic of core-concrete interactions has been extensively studied; for more complete background on the issue and on the physical/thermal-hydraulics phenomena involved, the reader is referred to Proceedings of CSNI Specialists Meetings (Ritzman, 1987; Alsmeyer, 1992) and a State-of-Art Report (European Commission, 1995). The exact amount of carbon monoxide present in a reactor pit or in various compartments (or rooms) in a containment building is specific to the type of concrete and the accident scenario considered. Generally, concrete containing limestone and sand have a high percentage of CaCO 3 . Appendix A provides an example of results of estimates of CO and CO 2

The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle : Global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools, and residence times

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloom, A Anthony; Exbrayat, Jean-François; van der Velde, Ivar R; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

2016-01-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle

On meeting capital requirements with a chance-constrained optimization model.

Science.gov (United States)

Atta Mills, Ebenezer Fiifi Emire; Yu, Bo; Gu, Lanlan

2016-01-01

This paper deals with a capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model in the presence of loans, treasury bill, fixed assets and non-interest earning assets. To model the dynamics of loans, we introduce a modified CreditMetrics approach. This leads to development of a deterministic convex counterpart of capital to risk asset ratio chance constraint. We pursue the scope of analyzing our model under the worst-case scenario i.e. loan default. The theoretical model is analyzed by applying numerical procedures, in order to administer valuable insights from a financial outlook. Our results suggest that, our capital to risk asset ratio chance-constrained optimization model guarantees banks of meeting capital requirements of Basel III with a likelihood of 95 % irrespective of changes in future market value of assets.

Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

2010-12-15

The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model.

Science.gov (United States)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N; Catling, David C

2018-04-17

The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0-50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from [Formula: see text] (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to [Formula: see text] (2σ) at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO 2 , which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

Feasibility analysis of nuclear–coal hybrid energy systems from the perspective of low-carbon development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, QianQian; Tang, ZhiYong; Lei, Yang; Sun, YuHan; Jiang, MianHeng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We report a nuclear–coal hybrid energy systems. • We address the high-carbon energy resource integrating with a low-carbon energy resource. • We establish a systematic techno-economic model. • Improving both energy and carbon efficiency. • A significantly lower CO 2 emission intensity is achieved by the system. - Abstract: Global energy consumption is expected to increase significantly due to the growth of the economy and population. The utilization of fossil resource, especially coal, will likely be constrained by carbon dioxide emissions, known to be the principal contributor to climate change. Therefore, the world is facing the challenge of how to utilize fossil resource without a large carbon footprint. In the present work, a nuclear–coal hybrid energy system is proposed as a potential solution to the aforementioned challenge. A high-carbon energy such as coal is integrated effectively with a low-carbon energy such as nuclear in a flexible and optimized manner, which is able to generate the chemicals and fuels with low carbon dioxide emissions. The nuclear–coal hybrid energy system is presented in this paper for the detailed analysis. In this case, the carbon resource required by the fuel syntheses and chemical production processes is mainly provided by coal while the hydrogen resource is derived from nuclear energy. Such integration can not only lead to a good balance between carbon and hydrogen, but also improve both energy and carbon efficiencies. More importantly, a significantly lower CO 2 emission intensity is achieved. A systematic techno-economic model is established, and a scenario analysis is carried out on the hybrid system to assess the economic competitiveness based on the considerations of various types of externalities. It is found that with the rising carbon tax and coal price as well as the decreasing cost of nuclear energy, the hybrid energy system will become more and more economically competitive with the

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

Evaluation of fuel cycle scenarios on MOX fuel recycling in PWRs and SFRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlier, B.; Caron-Charles, M.; Van Den Durpel, L. [AREVA, 1 place Jean Millier, Paris La Defense (France); Senentz, G. [AREVA, 33 rue La Lafayette, 75009 Paris (France); Serpantie, J.P. [AREVA, 10 rue Juliette Recamier, Lyon (France)

2013-07-01

Prospects on advanced fuel cycle scenario are considered for achieving a progressive integration of Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) technology within the current French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) nuclear fleet, in a view to benefit from fissile material multi-recycling capability. A step by step process is envisioned, and emphasis is put on its potential implementation through the nuclear mass inventory calculations with the COSAC code. The overall time scale is not optimized. The first step, already implemented in several countries, the plutonium coming from the reprocessing of used Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels is recycled into a small number of LWRs. The second step is the progressive introduction of the first SFRs, in parallel with the continuation of step 1. This second step lets to prepare the optimized multi recycling of MOX fuel which is considered in step 3. Step 3 is characterized by the introduction of a greater number of SFR and MOX management between EPR reactors and SFRs. In the final step 4, all the fleet is formed with SFRs. This study assesses the viability of each step of the overall scenario. The switch from one step to the other one could result from different constrains related to issues such as resources, waste, experience feedback, public acceptance, country policy, etc.

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2015-05-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

2008-01-01

A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

Low carbon development. Key issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Urban, Frauke; Nordensvaard, Johan (eds.)

2013-03-07

This comprehensive textbook addresses the interface between international development and climate change in a carbon constrained world. It discusses the key conceptual, empirical and policy-related issues of low carbon development and takes an international and interdisciplinary approach to the subject by drawing on insights from across the natural sciences and social sciences whilst embedding the discussion in a global context. The first part explores the concept of low carbon development and explains the need for low carbon development in a carbon constrained world. The book then discusses the key issues of socio-economic, political and technological nature for low carbon development, exploring topics such as the political economy, social justice, financing and carbon markets, and technologies and innovation for low carbon development. This is followed by key issues for low carbon development in policy and practice, which is presented based on cross-cutting issues such as low carbon energy, forestry, agriculture and transportation. Afterwards, practical case studies are discussed from low carbon development in low income countries in Africa, middle income countries in Asia and Latin America and high income countries in Europe and North America.

Final Scientific/Technical Report Carbon Capture and Storage Training Northwest - CCSTNW

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Workman, James

2013-09-30

This report details the activities of the Carbon Capture and Storage Training Northwest (CCSTNW) program 2009 to 2013. The CCSTNW created, implemented, and provided Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) training over the period of the program. With the assistance of an expert advisory board, CCSTNW created curriculum and conducted three short courses, more than three lectures, two symposiums, and a final conference. The program was conducted in five phases; 1) organization, gap analysis, and form advisory board; 2) develop list serves, website, and tech alerts; 3) training needs survey; 4) conduct lectures, courses, symposiums, and a conference; 5) evaluation surveys and course evaluations. This program was conducted jointly by Environmental Outreach and Stewardship Alliance (dba. Northwest Environmental Training Center – NWETC) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL).

Mesh dependence in PDE-constrained optimisation an application in tidal turbine array layouts

CERN Document Server

Schwedes, Tobias; Funke, Simon W; Piggott, Matthew D

2017-01-01

This book provides an introduction to PDE-constrained optimisation using finite elements and the adjoint approach. The practical impact of the mathematical insights presented here are demonstrated using the realistic scenario of the optimal placement of marine power turbines, thereby illustrating the real-world relevance of best-practice Hilbert space aware approaches to PDE-constrained optimisation problems. Many optimisation problems that arise in a real-world context are constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). That is, the system whose configuration is to be optimised follows physical laws given by PDEs. This book describes general Hilbert space formulations of optimisation algorithms, thereby facilitating optimisations whose controls are functions of space. It demonstrates the importance of methods that respect the Hilbert space structure of the problem by analysing the mathematical drawbacks of failing to do so. The approaches considered are illustrated using the optimisation problem arisin...

Carbon-shell-constrained silicon cluster derived from Al-Si alloy as long-cycling life lithium ion batteries anode

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Junming; Zhang, Congcong; Chen, Xiang; Liu, Siyang; Huang, Tao; Yu, Aishui

2018-03-01

Although silicon is the most promising anode material for Li-ion batteries, large volume expansion during lithiation and delithiation is the main obstacle limiting the commercial application of silicon anodes. There are two ways to alleviate volume expansion and prevent further pulverization of a Si anode: fabrication of a rational nanostructure possessing void spaces and uniform distribution of the conducting sites, without a good balance effect in mitigating the limiting factors and enhancing battery performance. In this paper, we propose a novel nanostructure - a carbon-shell-constrained Si cluster (Si/C shell) with both adequate void space and good distribution of electrical contact sites to guarantee homogeneous lithiation in the initial cycle. Benefiting from the ability to maintain electrical conductivity of the outer carbon shell, even after cluster fragmentation, the Si/C shell synthesized from low-cost commercial Al-Si alloy spheres can deliver 0.03% capacity loss from 100th to 1000th cycles at a current density of 1 A g-1. The Si/C shell sample with the dual functional structure mentioned above can also maintain its own nanostructure during cycling and deliver excellent rate performance. It is a concise and scalable strategy which can simplify the preparation of other alloy anode materials for Li-ion batteries.

Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model

Science.gov (United States)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Arney, Giada N.; Catling, David C.

2018-04-01

The early Earth’s environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0–50 °C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6‑0.4+0.6 (2σ) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0‑0.5+0.7 (2σ) at the Archean–Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9‑0.2+0.1 (2σ) at the Proterozoic–Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering.

A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomi, Kei; Shimada, Kouji; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2010-01-01

On May 2008, Kyoto city government set up a low-carbon target of a 50% GHG reduction by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. To contribute to these discussions, we developed a local (city-scale) low-carbon scenario creation method. An estimation model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. The model can explicitly treat the uncertainty of future socio-economic situations, which originate from the openness of local economy. The method was applied to Kyoto city, and countermeasures to achieve the low-carbon target were identified. Without countermeasures, emissions would increase 12% from 2000. Among the measures, the reduction potential of energy efficiency improvements to residential and commercial sectors was found to be relatively large (15% and 18% of total reductions, respectively). The reduction potential of the passenger transport sector, in which the city government's policy is especially important, was 17% of the total amount. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% increase in exports leads to an 8.5% increase in CO 2 emissions, and a 20% increase in the share of the commuters from outside the city leads to a 3.5% decrease of CO 2 emissions because of the smaller number of residents in the city.

Low-Carbon Energy Development in Indonesia in Alignment with Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC by 2030

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ucok W.R. Siagian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the role of low-carbon energy technologies in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of Indonesia’s energy sector by 2030. The aim of this study was to provide insights into the Indonesian government’s approach to developing a strategy and plan for mitigating emissions and achieving Indonesia’s emission reduction targets by 2030, as pledged in the country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE model was used to quantify three scenarios that had the same socioeconomic assumptions: baseline, countermeasure (CM1, and CM2, which had a higher emission reduction target than that of CM1. Results of the study showed that an Indonesian low-carbon energy system could be achieved with two pillars, namely, energy efficiency measures and deployment of less carbon-intensive energy systems (i.e., the use of renewable energy in the power and transport sectors, and the use of natural gas in the power sector and in transport. Emission reductions would also be satisfied through the electrification of end-user consumption where the electricity supply becomes decarbonized by deploying renewables for power generation. Under CM1, Indonesia could achieve a 15.5% emission reduction target (compared to the baseline scenario. This reduction could be achieved using efficiency measures that reduce final energy demand by 4%; This would require the deployment of geothermal power plants at a rate six times greater than the baseline scenario and four times the use of hydropower than that used in the baseline scenario. Greater carbon reductions (CM2; i.e., a 27% reduction could be achieved with similar measures to CM1 but with more intensive penetration. Final energy demand would need to be cut by 13%, deployment of geothermal power plants would need to be seven times greater than at baseline, and hydropower use would need to be five times greater than the baseline case

Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2012-01-01

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector’s projected...

Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Ohba, Masamichi

2013-01-01

Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO 2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO 2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO 2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. (letter)

The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velde, van der I.R.; Bloom, J.; Exbrayat, J.; Feng, L.; Williams, M.

2016-01-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taibi, Emanuele

2015-01-01

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure. - Highlights: • Energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040 are presented. • Study in the frame of renewable energy roadmap for Cyprus supported by IRENA. • Four scenarios considered, some allowing for breaks with past trends of energy use. • Rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures is realistic. • Strong energy savings required in line with EU decarbonisation targets.

Constraining the shape of the CMB: A peak-by-peak analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oedman, Carolina J.; Hobson, Michael P.; Lasenby, Anthony N.; Melchiorri, Alessandro

2003-01-01

The recent measurements of the power spectrum of cosmic microwave background anisotropies are consistent with the simplest inflationary scenario and big bang nucleosynthesis constraints. However, these results rely on the assumption of a class of models based on primordial adiabatic perturbations, cold dark matter and a cosmological constant. In this paper we investigate the need for deviations from the Λ-CDM scenario by first characterizing the spectrum using a phenomenological function in a 15 dimensional parameter space. Using a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach to Bayesian inference and a low curvature model template we then check for the presence of new physics and/or systematics in the CMB data. We find an almost perfect consistency between the phenomenological fits and the standard Λ-CDM models. The curvature of the secondary peaks is weakly constrained by the present data, but they are well located. The improved spectral resolution expected from future satellite experiments is warranted for a definitive test of the scenario

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Path integral methods for primordial density perturbations - sampling of constrained Gaussian random fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertschinger, E.

1987-01-01

Path integrals may be used to describe the statistical properties of a random field such as the primordial density perturbation field. In this framework the probability distribution is given for a Gaussian random field subjected to constraints such as the presence of a protovoid or supercluster at a specific location in the initial conditions. An algorithm has been constructed for generating samples of a constrained Gaussian random field on a lattice using Monte Carlo techniques. The method makes possible a systematic study of the density field around peaks or other constrained regions in the biased galaxy formation scenario, and it is effective for generating initial conditions for N-body simulations with rare objects in the computational volume. 21 references

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.; Steward, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Warner, E.; Webster, K. W.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehicles in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.

Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

2014-05-01

1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual

Role of carbon price signal on the investment decisions of companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herve, Morgan

2011-01-01

This PhD thesis focuses on the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on investment decisions in the European power sector. We provide the policy background on the EU ETS and contemporary policy and economic developments. We discuss the main types of compliance buyers' responses to the EU ETS constraint: emissions reductions, acquisitions of additional compliance assets, and other responses. We present the results of an empirical survey of the most carbon constrained European utilities. We show that strategic and economic considerations prevailed over the introduction of the carbon price. We discuss the impact of those investments on European utilities' EU ETS profile by looking at the potentially locked-in emissions, changes in the compliance perimeter and some specific developments relative to carbon leakage and Kyoto offsets. We offer a review of the investment decision-making approaches. Exploring the impact of carbon price scenarios on generation investment portfolios, we are able to identify that: the EU ETS has a moderate but central reallocation role in power generation investment portfolios; insights into the long-term carbon price trend are particularly helpful to unlock investment; some much discussed policy provisions only have a relatively small impact on investment portfolios; carbon price expectations impact decisions relative to power generation investment portfolios; while the EU ETS has a central role, the climate and non-climate policy mix matters most. (author)

Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Nižetić, S.

2018-02-01

This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

76 FR 64312 - Light-Walled Welded Rectangular Carbon Steel Tubing From Taiwan: Final Results of the Expedited...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-18

... Rectangular Carbon Steel Tubing From Taiwan: Final Results of the Expedited Sunset Review of the Antidumping... the antidumping duty order on light-walled welded rectangular carbon steel tubing from Taiwan pursuant... steel tubing from Taiwan pursuant to section 751(c) of the Act. See Initiation of Five-Year (``Sunset...

Poverty eradication in a carbon constrained world.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Patwardhan, Anand

2017-10-24

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to keep warming below 2 °C while recognizing developing countries' right to eradicate extreme poverty. Poverty eradication is also the first of the Sustainable Development Goals. This paper investigates potential consequences for climate targets of achieving poverty eradication. We find that eradicating extreme poverty, i.e., moving people to an income above $1.9 purchasing power parity (PPP) a day, does not jeopardize the climate target even in the absence of climate policies and with current technologies. On the other hand, bringing everybody to a still modest expenditure level of at least $2.97 PPP would have long-term consequences on achieving emission targets. Compared to the reference mitigation pathway, eradicating extreme poverty increases the effort by 2.8% whereas bringing everybody to at least $2.97 PPP would increase the required mitigation rate by 27%. Given that the top 10% global income earners are responsible for 36% of the current carbon footprint of households; the discourse should address income distribution and the carbon intensity of lifestyles.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental assessment of amine-based carbon capture Scenario modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brekke, Andreas; Askham, Cecilia; Modahl, Ingunn Saur; Vold, Bjoern Ivar; Johnsen, Fredrik Moltu

2012-07-01

This report contains a first attempt at introducing the environmental impacts associated with amines and derivatives in a life cycle assessment (LCA) of gas power production with carbon capture and comparing these with other environmental impacts associated with the production system. The report aims to identify data gaps and methodological challenges connected both to modelling toxicity of amines and derivatives and weighting of environmental impacts. A scenario based modelling exercise was performed on a theoretical gas power plant with carbon capture, where emission levels of nitrosamines were varied between zero (gas power without CCS) to a worst case level (outside the probable range of actual carbon capture facilities). Because of extensive research and development in the areas of solvents and emissions from carbon capture facilities in the latter years, data used in the exercise may be outdated and results should therefore not be taken at face value.The results from the exercise showed: According to UseTox, emissions of nitrosamines are less important than emissions of formaldehyde with regard to toxicity related to operation of (i.e. both inputs to and outputs from) a carbon capture facility. If characterisation factors for emissions of metals are included, these outweigh all other toxic emissions in the study. None of the most recent weighting methods in LCA include characterisation factors for nitrosamines, and these are therefore not part of the environmental ranking.These results shows that the EDecIDe project has an important role to play in developing LCA methodology useful for assessing the environmental performance of amine based carbon capture in particular and CCS in general. The EDecIDe project will examine the toxicity models used in LCA in more detail, specifically UseTox. The applicability of the LCA compartment models and site specificity issues for a Norwegian/Arctic situation will be explored. This applies to the environmental compartments

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

75 FR 64254 - Certain Hot-Rolled Flat-Rolled Carbon Quality Steel Products From Brazil; Final Results of...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-19

...-Rolled Carbon Quality Steel Products From Brazil; Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review... for the Final Results, 75 FR 19369 (April 14, 2010) (Preliminary Results). This review covers sales of... Products from Brazil,'' dated June 22, 2010 (USIMINAS Sales Verification Report). Following the release of...

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Carbon Sequestered, Carbon Displaced and the Kyoto Context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marland, G.; Schlamadinger, B.

1999-01-01

The integrated system that embraces forest management, forest products, and land-use change impacts the global carbon cycle - and hence the net emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide - in four fundamental ways. Carbon is stored in living and dead biomass, carbon is stored in wood products and landfills, forest products substitute in the market place for products made from other materials, and forest harvests can be used wholly or partially to displace fossil fuels in the energy sector. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change would result in the creation of international markets for carbon dioxide emissions credits, but the current Kyoto text does not treat all carbon identically. We have developed a carbon accounting model, GORCAM, to examine a variety of scenarios for land management and the production of forest products. In this paper we explore, for two simple scenarios of forest management, the carbon flows that occur and how these might be accounted for under the Kyoto text. The Kyoto protocol raises questions about what activities can result in emissions credits, which carbon reservoirs will be counted, who will receive the credits, and how much credit will be available? The Kyoto Protocol would sometimes give credits for carbon sequestered, but it would always give credits when fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are displaced

Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

2005-01-01

The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

Idaho forest carbon projections from 2017 to 2117 under forest disturbance and climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hudak, A. T.; Crookston, N.; Kennedy, R. E.; Domke, G. M.; Fekety, P.; Falkowski, M. J.

2017-12-01

Commercial off-the-shelf lidar collections associated with tree measures in field plots allow aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with high confidence. Predictive models developed from such datasets are used operationally to map AGB across lidar project areas. We use a random selection of these pixel-level AGB predictions as training for predicting AGB annually across Idaho and western Montana, primarily from Landsat time series imagery processed through LandTrendr. At both the landscape and regional scales, Random Forests is used for predictive AGB modeling. To project future carbon dynamics, we use Climate-FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator), the tree growth engine used by foresters to inform forest planning decisions, under either constant or changing climate scenarios. Disturbance data compiled from LandTrendr (Kennedy et al. 2010) using TimeSync (Cohen et al. 2010) in forested lands of Idaho (n=509) and western Montana (n=288) are used to generate probabilities of disturbance (harvest, fire, or insect) by land ownership class (public, private) as well as the magnitude of disturbance. Our verification approach is to aggregate the regional, annual AGB predictions at the county level and compare them to annual county-level AGB summarized independently from systematic, field-based, annual inventories conducted by the US Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program nationally. This analysis shows that when federal lands are disturbed the magnitude is generally high and when other lands are disturbed the magnitudes are more moderate. The probability of disturbance in corporate lands is higher than in other lands but the magnitudes are generally lower. This is consistent with the much higher prevalence of fire and insects occurring on federal lands, and greater harvest activity on private lands. We found large forest carbon losses in drier southern Idaho, only partially offset by carbon gains in wetter northern Idaho, due to anticipated climate change. Public and

75 FR 29976 - Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon-Quality Steel Plate Products From Italy: Extension of the Final...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-28

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration [A-475-826] Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon-Quality Steel Plate Products From Italy: Extension of the Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative...-quality steel plate products from Italy. See Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon-Quality Steel Plate Products...

Estimating zonal electricity supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahraei-Ardakani, Mostafa; Blumsack, Seth; Kleit, Andrew

2015-01-01

Many important electricity policy initiatives would directly affect the operation of electric power networks. This paper develops a method for estimating short-run zonal supply curves in transmission-constrained electricity markets that can be implemented quickly by policy analysts with training in statistical methods and with publicly available data. Our model enables analysis of distributional impacts of policies affecting operation of electric power grid. The method uses fuel prices and zonal electric loads to determine piecewise supply curves, identifying zonal electricity price and marginal fuel. We illustrate our methodology by estimating zonal impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129, an energy efficiency and conservation policy. For most utilities in Pennsylvania, Act 129 would reduce the influence of natural gas on electricity price formation and increase the influence of coal. The total resulted savings would be around 267 million dollars, 82 percent of which would be enjoyed by the customers in Pennsylvania. We also analyze the impacts of imposing a $35/ton tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Our results show that the policy would increase the average prices in PJM by 47–89 percent under different fuel price scenarios in the short run, and would lead to short-run interfuel substitution between natural gas and coal. - Highlights: • We develop a method to estimate of zonal supply curves in electricity markets. • The model estimates zonal electricity prices and zonal fuel utilization. • The model implicitly captures the average impacts of transmission constraints. • Using the method, we project supply curves for the seventeen utility zones of PJM. • We use the estimated supply curves to study the impacts of Pennsylvania's Act 129 and a carbon tax of $35 per ton

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

Recent Changes in Global Photosynthesis and Terrestrial Ecosystem Respiration Constrained From Multiple Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Yilong; Yin, Yi; Peng, Shushi; Zhu, Zaichun; Bastos, Ana; Yue, Chao; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Broquet, Grégoire; Canadell, Josep G.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Chi; Cooper, Leila; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Le Quéré, Corinne; Myneni, Ranga B.; Piao, Shilong

2018-01-01

To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and fire emissions and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half of the prior trend simulated by models. From the optimization, we infer that TER increased in parallel with GPP from 1980 to 1990, but then stalled during the cooler periods, in 1990-1994 coincident with the Pinatubo eruption, and during the recent warming hiatus period. After each of these TER stalling periods, TER is found to increase faster than GPP, explaining a relative reduction of the net land sink. These results shed light on decadal variations of GPP and TER and suggest that they exhibit different responses to temperature anomalies over the last 35 years.

Dimensionally constrained energy confinement analysis of W7-AS data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dose, V.; Preuss, R.; Linden, W. von der

1998-01-01

A recently assembled W7-AS stellarator database has been subject to dimensionally constrained confinement analysis. The analysis employs Bayesian inference. Dimensional information is taken from the Connor-Taylor (CT) similarity transformation theory, which provides six possible physical scenarios with associated dimensional conditions. Bayesian theory allows the calculations of the probability for each model and it is found that the present W7-AS data are most probably described by the collisionless high-β case. Probabilities for all models and the associated exponents of a power law scaling function are presented. (author)

[Variation of forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhen, Wei; Huang, Mei; Zhai, Yin-Li; Chen, Ke; Gong, Ya-Zhen

2014-05-01

The forest vegetation carbon stock and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China, were predicted by using Canadian carbon balance model (CBM-CFS3) combining with the forest resource data. The future spatio-temporal distribution and trends of vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate were projected, based on the two scenarios, i. e. with or without afforestation. The result suggested that the total forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon density in Liaoning Province in 2005 were 133.94 Tg and 25.08 t x hm(-2), respectively. The vegetation carbon storage in Quercus was the biggest, while in Robinia pseudoacacia was the least. Both Larix olgensis and broad-leaved forests had higher vegetation carbon densities than others, and the vegetation carbon densities of Pinus tabuliformis, Quercus and Robinia pseudoacacia were close to each other. The spatial distribution of forest vegetation carbon density in Liaoning Province showed a decrease trend from east to west. In the eastern forest area, the future increase of vegetation carbon density would be smaller than those in the northern forest area, because most of the forests in the former part were matured or over matured, while most of the forests in the later part were young. Under the scenario of no afforestation, the future increment of total forest vegetation carbon stock in Liaoning Province would increase gradually, and the total carbon sequestration rate would decrease, while they would both increase significantly under the afforestation scenario. Therefore, afforestation plays an important role in increasing vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate.

78 FR 29113 - Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon-Quality Steel Plate Products From the Republic of Korea: Final...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-17

...-Quality Steel Plate Products From the Republic of Korea: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative... administrative review of the antidumping duty order on certain cut-to-length carbon-quality steel plate products... duty order on certain cut-to-length carbon-quality steel plate products from the Republic of Korea...

Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, T.

2015-12-01

A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

Rethinking CCD's Significance in Estimating Late Neogene Whole Ocean Carbonate Budget

Science.gov (United States)

Si, W.; Rosenthal, Y.

2017-12-01

The global averaged calcite compensation depth (CCD) record is conventionally used to reconstruct two correlatable parameters of the carbonate system - the alkalinity budget of the ocean and/or the saturation state of the ocean. Accordingly, the available CCD reconstructions have been interpreted to suggest either relative stable (Pearson and Palmer, 2000) or increased alkalinity of the ocean over the past 15 Ma (Tyrrell and Zeebe, 2004; Pälike et al., 2012). However, CCD alone is insufficient to constrain the carbonate system because the weathering flux of alkalinity into the ocean is not only balanced by CaCO3 dissolution on the seafloor but also by the biologic production in the euphotic zone and, the CCD records cannot be readily interpreted as changes in either process. Here, we present evidence of the co-evolution of surface CaCO3 production and deepsea dissolution through the late Neogene. By examining separately the mass accumulation rates (MAR) of coccoliths, planktonic foraminifera, and quantifying dissolution (using a proxy revised from Broecker et al., 1999) in seventeen deepsea cores from multiple depth-transects, we find that 1) MAR of dissolution-resistant coccoliths was substantially higher in the mid Miocene and declining on a global scale towards the present; 2) unlike coccoliths, MAR of planktonic foraminifera, shows no apparent secular trend through that time; 3) the revised dissolution index, shows significantly improved preservation of planktonic foraminiferal shells over that time, particularly at intermediate water depth and exhibits close association between changes in preservation with key climatic events. Our new records have two immediate implications. First, the substantially weakened pelagic biogenic carbonate production from mid Miocene to present alone could account for the improved preservation of deepsea carbonates without calling for a scenario of increased weathering input. Second, with the constrain of global averaged CCD

The global carbon cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier-Reimer, E.

1991-01-01

Basic concepts of the global carbon cycle on earth are described; by careful analyses of isotopic ratios, emission history and oceanic ventilation rates are derived, which provide crucial tests for constraining and calibrating models. Effects of deforestation, fertilizing, fossil fuel burning, soil erosion, etc. are quantified and compared, and the oceanic carbon process is evaluated. Oceanic and terrestrial biosphere modifications are discussed and a carbon cycle model is proposed

Changing Climates. The Role of Renewable Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World. A Paper Prepared for REN21

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, J.; Denton, F.; Garg, A.; Kamel, S.; Pacudan, R.; Usher, E.

2005-12-01

The current paper on renewable energy and climate change is focused on the key characteristics of the climate change challenge, the intergovernmental action to address the challenge, and how current and future renewable energy projects can contribute to global carbon mitigation and adaptation efforts at the local level. The report presents the current and possible different future contributions that renewable energy can make. This is based on analysis of different authoritative global scenarios and their underlying assumptions, and is aimed at providing guidance on what would be required in terms of policy decisions and technological developments if renewable energy is going to significantly mitigate climate change. Although the focus is particularly on climate change and the opportunities for renewable energy, other issues are closely interlinked. Reducing GHG emissions by introducing more renewable energy, for example, will also have positive impacts on the security of energy supply, while potentially compounding the need for investment capital. The report begins with the current global energy demand and the contribution of renewable energy to meeting that demand. Next, different key internationally recognised energy development scenarios are presented from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), together with selected policy scenarios of very different specific options to mitigate climate change and stabilize CO2 levels in the range of 450-550 ppm. These scenarios are presented with both high and limited penetrations of renewable energy, along with discussions of underlying assumptions leading to these different results, including comparisons of projected technology costs. Existing policies worldwide to promote renewable energy are then analysed for their relative efficiency and results. Guidance is presented on the possible policy tools governments can use to move from the stipulated 'business

Changing Climates. The Role of Renewable Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World. A Paper Prepared for REN21

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Christensen, J.; Denton, F.; Garg, A.; Kamel, S.; Pacudan, R. [UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development URC, Roskilde (Denmark); Usher, E. [UNEP Energy Unit, Paris (France)

2005-12-15

The current paper on renewable energy and climate change is focused on the key characteristics of the climate change challenge, the intergovernmental action to address the challenge, and how current and future renewable energy projects can contribute to global carbon mitigation and adaptation efforts at the local level. The report presents the current and possible different future contributions that renewable energy can make. This is based on analysis of different authoritative global scenarios and their underlying assumptions, and is aimed at providing guidance on what would be required in terms of policy decisions and technological developments if renewable energy is going to significantly mitigate climate change. Although the focus is particularly on climate change and the opportunities for renewable energy, other issues are closely interlinked. Reducing GHG emissions by introducing more renewable energy, for example, will also have positive impacts on the security of energy supply, while potentially compounding the need for investment capital. The report begins with the current global energy demand and the contribution of renewable energy to meeting that demand. Next, different key internationally recognised energy development scenarios are presented from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), together with selected policy scenarios of very different specific options to mitigate climate change and stabilize CO2 levels in the range of 450-550 ppm. These scenarios are presented with both high and limited penetrations of renewable energy, along with discussions of underlying assumptions leading to these different results, including comparisons of projected technology costs. Existing policies worldwide to promote renewable energy are then analysed for their relative efficiency and results. Guidance is presented on the possible policy tools governments can use to move from the stipulated &apos

Terrestrial carbon losses from mountaintop coal mining offset regional forest carbon sequestration in the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott Campbell, J; Fox, James F; Acton, Peter M

2012-01-01

Studies that quantify the spatial and temporal variability of carbon sources and sinks provide process-level information for the prediction of future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as verification of current emission agreements. Assessments of carbon sources and sinks for North America that compare top-down atmospheric constraints with bottom-up inventories find particularly large carbon sinks in the southeastern US. However, this southeastern US sink may be impacted by extreme land-use disturbance events due to mountaintop coal mining (MCM). Here we apply ecosystem modeling and field experiment data to quantify the potential impact of future mountaintop coal mining on the carbon budget of the southern Appalachian forest region. For projections based on historical mining rates, grassland reclamation, and the continued regrowth of un-mined forests, we find that the southern Appalachian forests switch from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source by year 2025–33 with a 30%–35% loss in terrestrial carbon stocks relative to a scenario with no future mining by the year 2100. Alternatively, scenarios of forest sequestration due to the effect of CO 2 fertilization result in a 15%–24% loss in terrestrial carbon stocks by the year 2100 for mining scenarios relative to scenarios with no future mining. These results suggest that while power plant stack emissions are the dominant life-cycle stage in coal-fired electricity, accounting for mountaintop coal mining in bottom-up inventories may be a critical component of regional carbon budgets. (letter)

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2015-04-01

Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

2011-01-01

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

The Global Turnover Time Distribution of Soil Carbon Derived from a Meta-analysis of Radiocarbon Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

He, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Allison, S. D.; Torn, M. S.; Harden, J. W.; Smith, L. J.; van der Voort, T.; Trumbore, S.

2015-12-01

between 1000 and 5000 years. This study provides a data-constrained estimate of the global distribution of soil carbon turnover times and may help to constrain the performance of Earth system models used to evaluate future scenarios of change.

Constraining the Q10 of respiration in water-limited environments

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, A.; Ryan, M. G.; Xu, C.; Grossiord, C.; Michaletz, S. T.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

If the current rate of greenhouse emissions remains constant over the next few decades, projections of climate change forecast increased atmospheric temperatures by a least 1.1°C by the end of the century. Warmer temperatures are expected to largely influence the exchange of energy, carbon and water between plants and the atmosphere. Several studies support that terrestrial ecosystems currently act as a major carbon sink, however warmer temperatures may amplify respiration processes and shift terrestrial ecosystems from a sink to a source of carbon in the future. Most Earth System Models incorporate the temperature dependence of plant respiration (Q10) to estimate and predict respiration processes and associated carbon fluxes. Using a temperature and precipitation manipulation experiment in natural conditions, we present evidence that this parameter is poorly constrained especially in water-limited environments. We discuss the utility of the Q10 framework and suggest improvements for this parameter along with trait-based approaches to better resolve models.

Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliston, Ben; MacGill, Iain; Diesendorf, Mark

2013-01-01

Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

2017-03-01

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How CMB and large-scale structure constrain chameleon interacting dark energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boriero, Daniel; Das, Subinoy; Wong, Yvonne Y.Y.

2015-01-01

We explore a chameleon type of interacting dark matter-dark energy scenario in which a scalar field adiabatically traces the minimum of an effective potential sourced by the dark matter density. We discuss extensively the effect of this coupling on cosmological observables, especially the parameter degeneracies expected to arise between the model parameters and other cosmological parameters, and then test the model against observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies and other cosmological probes. We find that the chameleon parameters α and β, which determine respectively the slope of the scalar field potential and the dark matter-dark energy coupling strength, can be constrained to α < 0.17 and β < 0.19 using CMB data and measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations. The latter parameter in particular is constrained only by the late Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect. Adding measurements of the local Hubble expansion rate H 0 tightens the bound on α by a factor of two, although this apparent improvement is arguably an artefact of the tension between the local measurement and the H 0 value inferred from Planck data in the minimal ΛCDM model. The same argument also precludes chameleon models from mimicking a dark radiation component, despite a passing similarity between the two scenarios in that they both delay the epoch of matter-radiation equality. Based on the derived parameter constraints, we discuss possible signatures of the model for ongoing and future large-scale structure surveys

How CMB and large-scale structure constrain chameleon interacting dark energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boriero, Daniel [Fakultät für Physik, Universität Bielefeld, Universitätstr. 25, Bielefeld (Germany); Das, Subinoy [Indian Institute of Astrophisics, Bangalore, 560034 (India); Wong, Yvonne Y.Y., E-mail: boriero@physik.uni-bielefeld.de, E-mail: subinoy@iiap.res.in, E-mail: yvonne.y.wong@unsw.edu.au [School of Physics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia)

2015-07-01

We explore a chameleon type of interacting dark matter-dark energy scenario in which a scalar field adiabatically traces the minimum of an effective potential sourced by the dark matter density. We discuss extensively the effect of this coupling on cosmological observables, especially the parameter degeneracies expected to arise between the model parameters and other cosmological parameters, and then test the model against observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies and other cosmological probes. We find that the chameleon parameters α and β, which determine respectively the slope of the scalar field potential and the dark matter-dark energy coupling strength, can be constrained to α < 0.17 and β < 0.19 using CMB data and measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations. The latter parameter in particular is constrained only by the late Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect. Adding measurements of the local Hubble expansion rate H{sub 0} tightens the bound on α by a factor of two, although this apparent improvement is arguably an artefact of the tension between the local measurement and the H{sub 0} value inferred from Planck data in the minimal ΛCDM model. The same argument also precludes chameleon models from mimicking a dark radiation component, despite a passing similarity between the two scenarios in that they both delay the epoch of matter-radiation equality. Based on the derived parameter constraints, we discuss possible signatures of the model for ongoing and future large-scale structure surveys.

Incorporating Charging/Discharging Strategy of Electric Vehicles into Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow to Support High Renewable Penetration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyungsung An

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This research aims to improve the operational efficiency and security of electric power systems at high renewable penetration by exploiting the envisioned controllability or flexibility of electric vehicles (EVs; EVs interact with the grid through grid-to-vehicle (G2V and vehicle-to-grid (V2G services to ensure reliable and cost-effective grid operation. This research provides a computational framework for this decision-making process. Charging and discharging strategies of EV aggregators are incorporated into a security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF problem such that overall energy cost is minimized and operation within acceptable reliability criteria is ensured. Particularly, this SCOPF problem has been formulated for Jeju Island in South Korea, in order to lower carbon emissions toward a zero-carbon island by, for example, integrating large-scale renewable energy and EVs. On top of conventional constraints on the generators and line flows, a unique constraint on the system inertia constant, interpreted as the minimum synchronous generation, is considered to ensure grid security at high renewable penetration. The available energy constraint of the participating EV associated with the state-of-charge (SOC of the battery and market price-responsive behavior of the EV aggregators are also explored. Case studies for the Jeju electric power system in 2030 under various operational scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and improved operational flexibility via controllable EVs.

Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R; Todd, Benjamin J; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J

2013-01-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations. (letter)

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

2013-06-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

Carbon tariffs and cooperative outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyland, Terry; Zaccour, Georges

2014-01-01

In the absence of an international environmental agreement (IEA) on climate change, a country may be reluctant to unilaterally implement environmental actions, as this may lead to the relocation of firms to other, lax-on-pollution countries. To avoid this problem, while still taking care of the environment, a country may impose a carbon tariff that adjusts for the differences between its own carbon tax and the other country's tax. We consider two countries with a representative firm in each one, and characterize and contrast the equilibrium strategies and outcomes in three scenarios. In the first (benchmark) scenario, in a first stage the regulators in the two countries determine the carbon taxes noncooperatively, and in a second stage, the firms compete à la Cournot. In the second scenario, the regulators cooperate in determining the carbon taxes, while the firms still play a noncooperative Cournot game. In the third scenario, we add another player, e.g., the World Trade Organization, which announced a border tax in a prior stage; the game is then played as in the first scenario. Our two major results are (i) a border-tax adjustment (BTA) mimics quite well the cooperative solution in setting the carbon taxes as in scenario two. This means that a BTA may be a way around the lack of enthusiasm for an IEA. (ii) All of our simulations show that a partial correction of the difference in taxes is sufficient to maximize total welfare. In short, the conclusion is that a BTA may be used as a credible threat to achieve an outcome that is very close to the cooperative outcome. - Highlights: • One of the first studies to consider border-tax adjustment in a strategic context. • Border-tax adjustment can lead to an optimal outcome, in cooperative sense. • Optimal outcome is achieved with partial tax adjustment

Environmental implications of carbon limits on market ...

Science.gov (United States)

Combined heat and power (CHP) is promoted as an economical, energy-efficient option for combating climate change. To fully examine the viability of CHP as a clean-technology solution, its market potential and impacts need to be analyzed as part of scenarios of the future energy system, particularly those with policies limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper develops and analyzes scenarios using a bottom-up, technology rich optimization model of the U.S. energy system. Two distinct carbon reduction goals were set up for analysis. In Target 1, carbon emission reduction goals were only included for the electric sector. In Target 2, carbon emission reduction goals were set across the entire energy system with the target patterned after the U.S.’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions as part of the Paris Agreement reached at the COP21 summit. From a system-wide carbon reduction standpoint, Target 2 is significantly more stringent. In addition, these scenarios examine the implications of various CHP capacity expansion and contraction assumptions and energy prices. The largest CHP capacity expansion are observed in scenarios that included Target 1, but investments were scaled back in scenarios that incorporated Target 2. The latter scenario spurred rapid development of zero-emissions technologies within the electric sector, and purchased electricity increased dramatically in many end-use sectors. The results suggest that CHP may play a role in a carbon-c

Optimization of an implicit constrained multi-physics system for motor wheels of electric vehicle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lei, Fei; Du, Bin; Liu, Xin; Xie, Xiaoping; Chai, Tian

2016-01-01

In this paper, implicit constrained multi-physics model of a motor wheel for an electric vehicle is built and then optimized. A novel optimization approach is proposed to solve the compliance problem between implicit constraints and stochastic global optimization. Firstly, multi-physics model of motor wheel is built from the theories of structural mechanics, electromagnetism and thermal physics. Then, implicit constraints are applied from the vehicle performances and magnetic characteristics. Implicit constrained optimization is carried out by a series of unconstrained optimization and verifications. In practice, sequentially updated subspaces are designed to completely substitute the original design space in local areas. In each subspace, a solution is obtained and is then verified by the implicit constraints. Optimal solutions which satisfy the implicit constraints are accepted as final candidates. The final global optimal solution is optimized from those candidates. Discussions are carried out to discover the differences between optimal solutions with unconstrained problem and different implicit constrained problems. Results show that the implicit constraints have significant influences on the optimal solution and the proposed approach is effective in finding the optimals. - Highlights: • An implicit constrained multi-physics model is built for sizing a motor wheel. • Vehicle dynamic performances are applied as implicit constraints for nonlinear system. • An efficient novel optimization is proposed to explore the constrained design space. • The motor wheel is optimized to achieve maximum efficiency on vehicle dynamics. • Influences of implicit constraints on vehicle performances are compared and analyzed.

Carbon footprint of cartons in Europe - Carbon Footprint methodology and biogenic carbon sequestration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eriksson, Elin; Karlsson, Per-Erik; Hallberg, Lisa; Jelse, Kristian

2010-05-15

A methodology for carbon sequestration in forests used for carton production has been developed and applied. The average Carbon Footprint of converted cartons sold in Europe has been calculated and summarised. A methodology for a EU27 scenario based assessment of end of life treatment has been developed and applied. The average Carbon Footprint represents the total Greenhouse Gas emissions from one average tonne of virgin based fibres and recycled fibres produced, converted and printed in Europe

Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Sie Ting; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Jeng Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew Tin; Yan, Jinyue

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH 4 ), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH 4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of Wt

Constraining Light-Quark Yukawa Couplings from Higgs Distributions

CERN Document Server

Bishara, Fady

2017-03-20

We propose a novel strategy to constrain the bottom and charm Yukawa couplings by exploiting LHC measurements of transverse momentum distributions in Higgs production. Our method does not rely on the reconstruction of exclusive final states or heavy-flavour tagging. Compared to other proposals it leads to an enhanced sensitivity to the Yukawa couplings due to distortions of the differential Higgs spectra from emissions which either probe quark loops or are associated to quark-initiated production. We derive constraints using data from LHC Run I, and we explore the prospects of our method at future LHC runs. Finally, we comment on the possibility of bounding the strange Yukawa coupling.

Forest management strategies for reducing carbon emissions, the French case

Science.gov (United States)

Valade, Aude; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Bellassen, Valentin; Vallet, Patrick; Martin, Manuel

2015-04-01

International agreements now recognize the role of forest in the mitigation of climate change through the levers of in-situ sequestration, storage in products and energy and product substitution. These three strategies of carbon management are often antagonistic and it is still not clear which strategy would have the most significant impact on atmospheric carbon concentrations. With a focus on France, this study compares several scenarios of forest management in terms of their effect on the overall carbon budget from trees to wood-products. We elaborated four scenarios of forest management that target different wood production objectives. One scenario is 'Business as usual' and reproduces the current forest management and wood production levels. Two scenarios target an increase in bioenergy wood production, with either long-term or short-term goals. One scenario aims at increasing the production of timber for construction. For this, an empirical regression model was developed building on the rich French inventory database. The model can project the current forest resource at a time horizon of 20 years for characteristic variables diameter, standing volume, above-ground biomass, stand age. A simplified life-cycle analysis provides a full carbon budget for each scenario from forest management to wood use and allows the identification of the scenario that most reduces carbon emissions.

Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

2009-12-01

This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review

Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

2009-12-15

This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

2009-12-01

The effort to constrain regional scale carbon budgets benefits from assimilating as many high quality data sources as possible in order to reduce uncertainties. Two of the most common approaches used in this field, bottom-up and top-down techniques, both have their strengths and weaknesses, and partly build on very different sources of information to train, drive, and validate the models. Within the context of the ORCA2 project, we follow both bottom-up and top-down modeling strategies with the ultimate objective of reconciling their surface flux estimates. The ORCA2 top-down component builds on a coupled WRF-STILT transport module that resolves the footprint function of a CO2 concentration measurement in high temporal and spatial resolution. Datasets involved in the current setup comprise GDAS meteorology, remote sensing products, VULCAN fossil fuel inventories, boundary conditions from CarbonTracker, and high-accuracy time series of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Surface fluxes of CO2 are normally provided through a simple diagnostic model which is optimized against atmospheric observations. For the present study, we replaced the simple model with fluxes generated by an advanced bottom-up process model, Biome-BGC, which uses state-of-the-art algorithms to resolve plant-physiological processes, and 'grow' a biosphere based on biogeochemical conditions and climate history. This approach provides a more realistic description of biomass and nutrient pools than is the case for the simple model. The process model ingests various remote sensing data sources as well as high-resolution reanalysis meteorology, and can be trained against biometric inventories and eddy-covariance data. Linking the bottom-up flux fields to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations through the transport module allows evaluating the spatial representativeness of the BGC flux fields, and in that way assimilates more of the available information than either of the individual modeling techniques alone

Gas turbine requirements for a carbon constrained environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, R.M.; Lacy, B.P.; Yilmaz, E.; (and others) [GE Energy, Schenectady, NY (United States)

2006-07-01

With carbon capture, the pre-combustion decarbonization of natural gas, or syngas derived from coal gasification results in gas turbines fuels that consist of 90% or higher hydrogen content. This paper discusses the challenge of low CO{sub 2} processes for advanced gas turbines with particular focus on high hydrogen combustion. 4 refs., 13 figs.

E-ELT constraints on runaway dilaton scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinelli, M. [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 16, 69120, Heidelberg (Germany); Calabrese, E. [Sub-department of Astrophysics, University of Oxford, Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Martins, C.J.A.P., E-mail: m.martinelli@thphys.uni-heidelberg.de, E-mail: erminia.calabrese@physics.ox.ac.uk, E-mail: carlos.martins@astro.up.pt [Centro de Astrofìsica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal)

2015-11-01

We use a combination of simulated cosmological probes and astrophysical tests of the stability of the fine-structure constant α, as expected from the forthcoming European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), to constrain the class of string-inspired runaway dilaton models of Damour, Piazza and Veneziano. We consider three different scenarios for the dark sector couplings in the model and discuss the observational differences between them. We improve previously existing analyses investigating in detail the degeneracies between the parameters ruling the coupling of the dilaton field to the other components of the universe, and studying how the constraints on these parameters change for different fiducial cosmologies. We find that if the couplings are small (e.g., α{sub b} = α{sub V} ∼ 0) these degeneracies strongly affect the constraining power of future data, while if they are sufficiently large (e.g., α{sub b} ∼> 10{sup −5}−α{sub V} ∼> 0.05, as in agreement with current constraints) the degeneracies can be partially broken. We show that E-ELT will be able to probe some of this additional parameter space.

Constraining the Mechanism of D" Anisotropy: Diversity of Observation Types Required

Science.gov (United States)

Creasy, N.; Pisconti, A.; Long, M. D.; Thomas, C.

2017-12-01

A variety of different mechanisms have been proposed as explanations for seismic anisotropy at the base of the mantle, including crystallographic preferred orientation of various minerals (bridgmanite, post-perovskite, and ferropericlase) and shape preferred orientation of elastically distinct materials such as partial melt. Investigations of the mechanism for D" anisotropy are usually ambiguous, as seismic observations rarely (if ever) uniquely constrain a mechanism. Observations of shear wave splitting and polarities of SdS and PdP reflections off the D" discontinuity are among our best tools for probing D" anisotropy; however, typical data sets cannot constrain a unique scenario suggested by the mineral physics literature. In this work, we determine what types of body wave observations are required to uniquely constrain a mechanism for D" anisotropy. We test multiple possible models based on both single-crystal and poly-phase elastic tensors provided by mineral physics studies. We predict shear wave splitting parameters for SKS, SKKS, and ScS phases and reflection polarities off the D" interface for a range of possible propagation directions. We run a series of tests that create synthetic data sets by random selection over multiple iterations, controlling the total number of measurements, the azimuthal distribution, and the type of phases. We treat each randomly drawn synthetic dataset with the same methodology as in Ford et al. (2015) to determine the possible mechanism(s), carrying out a grid search over all possible elastic tensors and orientations to determine which are consistent with the synthetic data. We find is it difficult to uniquely constrain the starting model with a realistic number of seismic anisotropy measurements with only one measurement technique or phase type. However, having a mix of SKS, SKKS, and ScS measurements, or a mix of shear wave splitting and reflection polarity measurements, dramatically increases the probability of uniquely

Global energy context: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2006-01-01

After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, Graham

1991-01-01

This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) v1.0: implementation and global carbon balance 2001-2015

Science.gov (United States)

van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Velde, Ivar R.; van der Veen, Emma; Tsuruta, Aki; Stanislawska, Karolina; Babenhauserheide, Arne; Zhang, Hui Fang; Liu, Yu; He, Wei; Chen, Huilin; Masarie, Kenneth A.; Krol, Maarten C.; Peters, Wouter

2017-07-01

Data assimilation systems are used increasingly to constrain the budgets of reactive and long-lived gases measured in the atmosphere. Each trace gas has its own lifetime, dominant sources and sinks, and observational network (from flask sampling and in situ measurements to space-based remote sensing) and therefore comes with its own optimal configuration of the data assimilation. The CarbonTracker Europe data assimilation system for CO2 estimates global carbon sources and sinks, and updates are released annually and used in carbon cycle studies. CarbonTracker Europe simulations are performed using the new modular implementation of the data assimilation system: the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS). Here, we present and document this redesign of the data assimilation code that forms the heart of CarbonTracker, specifically meant to enable easy extension and modification of the data assimilation system. This paper also presents the setup of the latest version of CarbonTracker Europe (CTE2016), including the use of the gridded state vector, and shows the resulting carbon flux estimates. We present the distribution of the carbon sinks over the hemispheres and between the land biosphere and the oceans. We show that with equal fossil fuel emissions, 2015 has a higher atmospheric CO2 growth rate compared to 2014, due to reduced net land carbon uptake in later year. The European carbon sink is especially present in the forests, and the average net uptake over 2001-2015 was 0. 17 ± 0. 11 PgC yr-1 with reductions to zero during drought years. Finally, we also demonstrate the versatility of CTDAS by presenting an overview of the wide range of applications for which it has been used so far.

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Incorporating land-use requirements and environmental constraints in low-carbon electricity planning for California.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Grace C; Torn, Margaret S; Williams, James H

2015-02-17

The land-use implications of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector (e.g., 80% below 1990 emissions) have not been well-characterized quantitatively or spatially. We assessed the operational-phase land-use requirements of different low-carbon scenarios for California in 2050 and found that most scenarios have comparable direct land footprints. While the per MWh footprint of renewable energy (RE) generation is initially higher, that of fossil and nuclear generation increases over time with continued fuel use. We built a spatially explicit model to understand the interactions between resource quality and environmental constraints in a high RE scenario (>70% of total generation). We found that there is sufficient land within California to meet the solar and geothermal targets, but areas with the highest quality wind and solar resources also tend to be those with high conservation value. Development of some land with lower conservation value results in lower average capacity factors, but also provides opportunity for colocation of different generation technologies, which could significantly improve land-use efficiency and reduce permitting, leasing, and transmission infrastructure costs. Basing siting decisions on environmentally-constrained long-term RE build-out requirements produces significantly different results, including better conservation outcomes, than implied by the current piecemeal approach to planning.

Modelling Socio-Environmental Sensitivities: How Public Responses to Low Carbon Energy Technologies Could Shape the UK Energy System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brighid Moran Jay

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public’s socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD and all show increased cost (especially in ECO.

Modelling socio-environmental sensitivities: how public responses to low carbon energy technologies could shape the UK energy system.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran Jay, Brighid; Howard, David; Hughes, Nick; Whitaker, Jeanette; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2014-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway) as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

Evolutionary constrained optimization

CERN Document Server

Deb, Kalyanmoy

2015-01-01

This book makes available a self-contained collection of modern research addressing the general constrained optimization problems using evolutionary algorithms. Broadly the topics covered include constraint handling for single and multi-objective optimizations; penalty function based methodology; multi-objective based methodology; new constraint handling mechanism; hybrid methodology; scaling issues in constrained optimization; design of scalable test problems; parameter adaptation in constrained optimization; handling of integer, discrete and mix variables in addition to continuous variables; application of constraint handling techniques to real-world problems; and constrained optimization in dynamic environment. There is also a separate chapter on hybrid optimization, which is gaining lots of popularity nowadays due to its capability of bridging the gap between evolutionary and classical optimization. The material in the book is useful to researchers, novice, and experts alike. The book will also be useful...

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

;reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO{sub 2} emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO{sub 2} emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO{sub 2} emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the

Portuguese pellets market: Analysis of the production and utilization constrains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteiro, Eliseu; Mantha, Vishveshwar; Rouboa, Abel

2012-01-01

As opposite in Portugal, the wood pellets market is booming in Europe. In this work, possible reasons for this market behavior are foreseen according to the key indicators of biomass availability, costs and legal framework. Two major constrains are found in the Portuguese pellets market: the first one is the lack of an internal consumption, being the market based on exportations. The second one is the shortage of raw material mainly due to the competition with the biomass power plants. Therefore, the combination of the biomass power plants with pellet production plants seems to be the best option for the pellets production in the actual Portuguese scenario. The main constrains for pellets market has been to convince small-scale customers that pellets are a good alternative fuel, mainly due to the investment needed and the strong competition with natural gas. Besides some benefits in the acquisition of new equipment for renewable energy, they are insufficient to cover the huge discrepancy of the investment in pellets heating. However, pellets are already economic interesting for large utilizations. In order cover a large amount of households, additional public support is needed to cover the supplementary costs of the pellets heating systems. - Highlights: ► There is a lack of internal consumption being the pellets market based on exportation. ► The shortage of raw material is mainly due to the biomass power plants. ► Combining pellet plants with biomass power plants seems to be a wise solution. ► The tax benefits of renewable energy equipments are not enough to cover the higher investment. ► Pellets are already economic interesting for large utilizations in the Portuguese scenario.

Carbon-carbon composites for orthopedic prosthesis and implants. CRADA final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burchell, T D; Klett, J W; Strizak, J P [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Baker, C [FMI, Biddeford, ME (United States)

1998-01-21

The prosthetic implant market is extensive. For example, because of arthritic degeneration of hip and knee cartilage and osteoporotic fractures of the hip, over 200,000 total joint replacements (TJRs) are performed in the United States each year. Current TJR devices are typically metallic (stainless steel, cobalt, or titanium alloy) and are fixed in the bone with polymethylacrylate (PMMA) cement. Carbon-carbon composite materials offer several distinct advantages over metals for TJR prosthesis. Their mechanical properties can be tailored to match more closely the mechanical properties of human bone, and the composite may have up to 25% porosity, the size and distribution of which may be controlled through processing. The porous nature of carbon-carbon composites will allow for the ingrowth of bone, achieving biological fixation, and eliminating the need for PMMA cement fixation.

Analysis of low-carbon industrial symbiosis technology for carbon mitigation in a Chinese iron/steel industrial park: A case study with carbon flow analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hui; Dong, Liang; Li, Huiquan; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Ohnishi, Satoshi; Tang, Qing

2013-01-01

CO 2 mitigation strategies in industrial parks are a significant component of the Chinese climate change mitigation policy, and industrial symbiosis can provide specific CO 2 mitigation opportunity. Technology is important to support symbiosis, but few studies in China have focused on this topic at the industrial park level. This research presented a case study in a national iron and steel industrial park in China. Focus was given onto carbon mitigation through industrial symbiosis technology using substance flow analysis (SFA). Three typical iron and steel industry technologies, including coke dry quenching (CDQ), combined cycle power plant (CCPP), and CO 2 capture by slag carbonization (CCSC) were evaluated with SFA. Technology assessment was further conducted in terms of carbon mitigation potential and unit reduction cost. Compared with the Business as usual (BAU) scenario, application with CDQ, CCPP, and CCSC reduced the net carbon emissions by 56.18, 134.43, and 222.89 kg CO 2 per ton crude steel inside the industrial parks, respectively, including both direct and indirect emissions. Economic assessment revealed that the unit costs for the three technologies were also high, thereby necessitating national financial support. Finally, relevant policy suggestions and future concerns were proposed and discussed. - Highlights: • A typical carbon mitigation case study on China iron/steel industrial park. • Using carbon SFA to investigate mitigation effects of industrial symbiosis technology. • CCPP greatly reduced the indirect carbon emission embodied in power purchase. • CCSC reduced the carbon emission by distributing fixed carbon into by-product. • Specific low carbon-tech promotion policies fit to China was discussed and proposed

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

75 FR 4528 - Certain Magnesia Carbon Bricks From the People's Republic of China: Alignment of Final...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-28

... the PRC and Mexico. See Certain Magnesia Carbon Bricks from the People's Republic of China: Initiation... Bricks from the People's Republic of China and Mexico: Initiation of Antidumping Duty Investigations, 74... Bricks From the People's Republic of China: Alignment of Final Countervailing Duty Determination With...

Constraining The Abundance Of Massive Black Hole Binaries By Spectroscopic Monitoring Of Quasars With Offset Broad Emission Lines

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xin; Shen, Y.

2012-05-01

A fraction of quasars have long been known to show significant bulk velocity offsets (of a few hundred to thousands of km/s) in the broad permitted emission lines with respect to host galaxy systemic redshift. Various scenarios may explain these features such as massive black hole binaries or broad line region gas kinematics. As previously demonstrated by the dedicated work of Eracleous and colleagues, long-term spectroscopic monitoring provides a promising test to discriminate between alternative scenarios. Here, we present a sample of 300 shifted-line quasars homogeneously selected from the SDSS DR7. For 60 of them, we have conducted second-epoch optical spectra using MMT/BCS, ARC 3.5m/DIS, and/or FLWO 1.5m/FAST. These new observations, combined with the existing SDSS spectra, enable us to constrain the velocity drifts of these shifted broad lines with time baselines of a few years up to a decade. Previous work has been focusing on objects with extreme velocity offsets: > 1000 km/s. Our work extends to the parameter space of smaller velocity offsets, where larger velocity drifts would be expected in the binary scenario. Our results may be used to identify strong candidates for and to constrain the abundance of massive black hole binaries, which are expected in the hierarchical universe, but have so far been illusive.

Adaptively Constrained Stochastic Model Predictive Control for the Optimal Dispatch of Microgrid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaogang Guo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an adaptively constrained stochastic model predictive control (MPC is proposed to achieve less-conservative coordination between energy storage units and uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs in a microgrid (MG. Besides the economic objective of MG operation, the limits of state-of-charge (SOC and discharging/charging power of the energy storage unit are formulated as chance constraints when accommodating uncertainties of RESs, considering mild violations of these constraints are allowed during long-term operation, and a closed-loop online update strategy is performed to adaptively tighten or relax constraints according to the actual deviation probability of violation level from the desired one as well as the current change rate of deviation probability. Numerical studies show that the proposed adaptively constrained stochastic MPC for MG optimal operation is much less conservative compared with the scenario optimization based robust MPC, and also presents a better convergence performance to the desired constraint violation level than other online update strategies.

Constraining Light-Quark Yukawa Couplings from Higgs Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Bishara, Fady; Haisch, Ulrich; Monni, Pier Francesco; Re, Emanuele

2017-03-01

We propose a novel strategy to constrain the bottom and charm Yukawa couplings by exploiting Large Hadron Collider (LHC) measurements of transverse momentum distributions in Higgs production. Our method does not rely on the reconstruction of exclusive final states or heavy-flavor tagging. Compared to other proposals, it leads to an enhanced sensitivity to the Yukawa couplings due to distortions of the differential Higgs spectra from emissions which either probe quark loops or are associated with quark-initiated production. We derive constraints using data from LHC run I, and we explore the prospects of our method at future LHC runs. Finally, we comment on the possibility of bounding the strange Yukawa coupling.

Constraining Light-Quark Yukawa Couplings from Higgs Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishara, Fady; Haisch, Ulrich; Monni, Pier Francesco; Re, Emanuele

2017-03-24

We propose a novel strategy to constrain the bottom and charm Yukawa couplings by exploiting Large Hadron Collider (LHC) measurements of transverse momentum distributions in Higgs production. Our method does not rely on the reconstruction of exclusive final states or heavy-flavor tagging. Compared to other proposals, it leads to an enhanced sensitivity to the Yukawa couplings due to distortions of the differential Higgs spectra from emissions which either probe quark loops or are associated with quark-initiated production. We derive constraints using data from LHC run I, and we explore the prospects of our method at future LHC runs. Finally, we comment on the possibility of bounding the strange Yukawa coupling.

Carbon stock projection in North Sumatera using multi objective land allocation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ichwani, S. N.; Wulandari, R.; Ramachandra, A.

2018-05-01

Nowadays, GHG emission is a critical issue for environmental management due to the large scale of land cover change, especially forest cover. This study provides a protection development strategy for North Sumatera as one way to manage the area. By using Multi Objective Land Allocation (MOLA), we evaluated two GHG emission scenarios, including a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and Protection scenario. The result shows that the province will lose the carbon stock up to 24 million tons in the year of 2035 by using a BAU scenario. On the other hand, by implementing the Protection scenario, total carbon stock that is lost in the same period is about 5 millions tons solely. It proves that protection scenario is a good scenario and effective to reduce the carbon loss. Furthermore, this scenario can be an alternative for North Sumatera spatial plan.

A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Özkan, Şeyda; Farquharson, Robert J.; Hill, Julian; Malcolm, Bill

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Two different pasture-based dairy feeding systems were evaluated. • The home-grown forage system outperformed the traditional pasture-based system. • Probability of achieving $200,000 income was reduced by imposition of a carbon tax. • Different farming systems will respond to change differently. • The ‘best choice’ for each individual farm is subjective. - Abstract: The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20–$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Carbon balance of China constrained by CONTRAIL aircraft CO2 measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, F.; Wang, H. M.; Chen, J. M.; Machida, T.; Zhou, L. X.; Ju, W. M.; Matsueda, H.; Sawa, Y.

2014-09-01

Terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) flux estimates in China using atmospheric inversion method are beset with considerable uncertainties because very few atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements are available. In order to improve these estimates, nested atmospheric CO2 inversion during 2002-2008 is performed in this study using passenger aircraft-based CO2 measurements over Eurasia from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project. The inversion system includes 43 regions with a focus on China, and is based on the Bayesian synthesis approach and the TM5 transport model. The terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux modeled by the Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model and the ocean exchange simulated by the OPA-PISCES-T model are considered as the prior fluxes. The impacts of CONTRAIL CO2 data on inverted China terrestrial carbon fluxes are quantified, the improvement of the inverted fluxes after adding CONTRAIL CO2 data are rationed against climate factors and evaluated by comparing the simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations with three independent surface CO2 measurements in China. Results show that with the addition of CONTRAIL CO2 data, the inverted carbon sink in China increases while those in South and Southeast Asia decrease. Meanwhile, the posterior uncertainties over these regions are all reduced (2-12%). CONTRAIL CO2 data also have a large effect on the inter-annual variation of carbon sinks in China, leading to a better correlation between the carbon sink and the annual mean climate factors. Evaluations against the CO2 measurements at three sites in China also show that the CONTRAIL CO2 measurements may have improved the inversion results.

Multi-Sensor Constrained Time Varying Emissions Estimation of Black Carbon: Attributing Urban and Fire Sources Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, J. B.

2015-12-01

The short lifetime and heterogeneous distribution of Black Carbon (BC) in the atmosphere leads to complex impacts on radiative forcing, climate, and health, and complicates analysis of its atmospheric processing and emissions. Two recent papers have estimated the global and regional emissions of BC using advanced statistical and computational methods. One used a Kalman Filter, including data from AERONET, NOAA, and other ground-based sources, to estimate global emissions of 17.8+/-5.6 Tg BC/year (with the increase attributable to East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe - all regions which have had rapid urban, industrial, and economic expansion). The second additionally used remotely sensed measurements from MISR and a variance maximizing technique, uniquely quantifying fire and urban sources in Southeast Asia, as well as their large year-to-year variability over the past 12 years, leading to increases from 10% to 150%. These new emissions products, when run through our state-of-the art modelling system of chemistry, physics, transport, removal, radiation, and climate, match 140 ground stations and satellites better in both an absolute and a temporal sense. New work now further includes trace species measurements from OMI, which are used with the variance maximizing technique to constrain the types of emissions sources. Furthermore, land-use change and fire estimation products from MODIS are also included, which provide other constraints on the temporal and spatial nature of the variations of intermittent sources like fires or new permanent sources like expanded urbanization. This talk will introduce a new, top-down constrained, weekly varying BC emissions dataset, show that it produces a better fit with observations, and draw conclusions about the sources and impacts from urbanization one hand, and fires on another hand. Results specific to the Southeast and East Asia will demonstrate inter- and intra-annual variations, such as the function of

A One-Layer Recurrent Neural Network for Constrained Complex-Variable Convex Optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Sitian; Feng, Jiqiang; Song, Jiahui; Wen, Xingnan; Xu, Chen

2018-03-01

In this paper, based on calculus and penalty method, a one-layer recurrent neural network is proposed for solving constrained complex-variable convex optimization. It is proved that for any initial point from a given domain, the state of the proposed neural network reaches the feasible region in finite time and converges to an optimal solution of the constrained complex-variable convex optimization finally. In contrast to existing neural networks for complex-variable convex optimization, the proposed neural network has a lower model complexity and better convergence. Some numerical examples and application are presented to substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed neural network.

Splines and polynomial tools for flatness-based constrained motion planning

Science.gov (United States)

Suryawan, Fajar; De Doná, José; Seron, María

2012-08-01

This article addresses the problem of trajectory planning for flat systems with constraints. Flat systems have the useful property that the input and the state can be completely characterised by the so-called flat output. We propose a spline parametrisation for the flat output, the performance output, the states and the inputs. Using this parametrisation the problem of constrained trajectory planning can be cast into a simple quadratic programming problem. An important result is that the B-spline parametrisation used gives exact results for constrained linear continuous-time system. The result is exact in the sense that the constrained signal can be made arbitrarily close to the boundary without having intersampling issues (as one would have in sampled-data systems). Simulation examples are presented, involving the generation of rest-to-rest trajectories. In addition, an experimental result of the method is also presented, where two methods to generate trajectories for a magnetic-levitation (maglev) system in the presence of constraints are compared and each method's performance is discussed. The first method uses the nonlinear model of the plant, which turns out to belong to the class of flat systems. The second method uses a linearised version of the plant model around an operating point. In every case, a continuous-time description is used. The experimental results on a real maglev system reported here show that, in most scenarios, the nonlinear and linearised models produce almost similar, indistinguishable trajectories.

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andrés Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana María; Arango, Santiago; Calvin, Katherine; Kober, Tom; Daenzer, Kathryn; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2016-01-01

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. An assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper. - Highlights: • Four energy and economy-wide models under carbon mitigation scenarios are compared. • Baseline results show that CO

Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

2018-04-01

California's goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a level that is 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors. In addition to reducing GHG emissions, shifting to fuels with lower carbon intensity will change concentrations of short-lived conventional air pollutants, including airborne particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Here we evaluate how business-as-usual (BAU) air pollution and public health in California will be transformed in the year 2050 through the adoption of low-carbon technologies, expanded electrification, and modified activity patterns within a low-carbon energy scenario (GHG-Step). Both the BAU and GHG-Step statewide emission scenarios were constructed using the energy-economic optimization model, CA-TIMES, that calculates the multi-sector energy portfolio that meets projected energy supply and demand at the lowest cost, while also satisfying scenario-specific GHG emissions constraints. Corresponding criteria pollutant emissions for each scenario were then spatially allocated at 4 km resolution to support air quality analysis in different regions of the state. Meteorological inputs for the year 2054 were generated under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 future climate. Annual-average PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were predicted using the modified emissions and meteorology inputs with a regional chemical transport model. In the final phase of the analysis, mortality (total deaths) and mortality rate (deaths per 100 000) were calculated using established exposure-response relationships from air pollution epidemiology combined with simulated annual-average PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Net emissions reductions across all sectors are -36 % for PM0.1 mass, -3.6 % for PM2.5 mass, -10.6 % for PM2.5 elemental carbon, -13.3 % for PM2.5 organic carbon, -13.7 % for NOx, and -27.5 % for NH3. Predicted deaths associated with air

Setting an Upper Limit on Gas Exchange Through Sea-Spray

Science.gov (United States)

Vlahos, P.; Monahan, E. C.; Andreas, E. L.

2016-02-01

Air-sea gas exchange parameterization is critical to understanding both climate forcing and feedbacks and is key in biogeochemistry cycles. Models based on wind speed have provided empirical estimates of gas exchange that are useful though it is likely that at high wind speeds of over 10 m/s there are important gas exchange parameters including bubbles and sea spray that have not been well constrained. Here we address the sea-spray component of gas exchange at these high wind speeds to set sn upper boundary condition for the gas exchange of the six model gases including; nobel gases helium, neon and argon, diatomic gases nitrogen and oxygen and finally, the more complex gas carbon dioxide. Estimates are based on the spray generation function of Andreas and Monahan and the gases are tested under three scenarios including 100 percent saturation and complete droplet evaporation, 100 percent saturation and a more realistic scenario in which a fraction of droplets evaporate completely, a fraction evaporate to some degree and a fraction returns to the water side without significant evaporation. Finally the latter scenario is applied to representative under saturated concentrations of the gases.

Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was

Fabrication of (PPC/NCC)/PVA composites with inner-outer double constrained structure and improved glass transition temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Shaoying; Li, Li; Wang, Qi

2018-07-01

Improving glass transition temperature (T g ) and mechanical property of the environment-friendly poly(propylene carbonate) via intermacromolecular complexation through hydrogen bonding is attractive and of great importance. A novel and effective strategy to prepare (polypropylene carbonate/nanocrystalline cellulose)/polyvinyl alcohol ((PPC/NCC)/PVA) composites with inner-outer double constrained structure was reported in this work. Outside the PPC phase, PVA, as a strong skeleton at microscale, could constrain the movement of PPC molecular chains by forming hydrogen bonding with PPC at the interface of PPC and PVA phases; inside the PPC phase, the rod-like NCC could restrain the flexible molecular chains of PPC at nanoscale by forming multi-hydrogen bonding with PPC. Under the synergistic effect of this novel inner-outer double constrained structure, T g , mechanical properties and thermal stability of (PPC/NCC)/PVA composite were significantly increased, e.g. T g of the composite researched the maximum value of 49.6 °C, respectively 15.6 °C, 5.7 °C and 4.2 °C higher than that of PPC, PPC/NCC and PPC/PVA composite. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

2003-01-01

In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Constraining Forest Certificate's Market to Improve Cost-Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernasconi, Paula; Blumentrath, Stefan; Barton, David N; Rusch, Graciela M; Romeiro, Ademar R

2016-01-01

The recently launched Brazilian "forest certificates" market is expected to reduce environmental compliance costs for landowners through an offset mechanism, after a long history of conservation laws based in command-and-control and strict rules. In this paper we assessed potential costs and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the instrument when introducing to this market constraints that aim to address conservation objectives more specifically. Using the conservation planning software Marxan with Zones we simulated different scopes for the "forest certificates" market, and compared their cost-effectiveness with that of existing command-and-control (C&C), i.e. compliance to the Legal Reserve on own property, in the state of São Paulo. The simulations showed a clear potential of the constrained "forest certificates" market to improve conservation effectiveness and increase cost-effectiveness on allocation of Legal Reserves. Although the inclusion of an additional constraint of targeting the BIOTA Conservation Priority Areas doubled the cost (+95%) compared with a "free trade" scenario constrained only by biome, this option was still 50% less costly than the baseline scenario of compliance with Legal Reserve at the property.

Constraining Forest Certificate's Market to Improve Cost-Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Bernasconi

Full Text Available The recently launched Brazilian "forest certificates" market is expected to reduce environmental compliance costs for landowners through an offset mechanism, after a long history of conservation laws based in command-and-control and strict rules. In this paper we assessed potential costs and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the instrument when introducing to this market constraints that aim to address conservation objectives more specifically. Using the conservation planning software Marxan with Zones we simulated different scopes for the "forest certificates" market, and compared their cost-effectiveness with that of existing command-and-control (C&C, i.e. compliance to the Legal Reserve on own property, in the state of São Paulo. The simulations showed a clear potential of the constrained "forest certificates" market to improve conservation effectiveness and increase cost-effectiveness on allocation of Legal Reserves. Although the inclusion of an additional constraint of targeting the BIOTA Conservation Priority Areas doubled the cost (+95% compared with a "free trade" scenario constrained only by biome, this option was still 50% less costly than the baseline scenario of compliance with Legal Reserve at the property.

How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedlingstein, P.; Rayner, P.

2003-01-01

Future climate change induced by atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases is believed to have a large impact on the global carbon cycle. Several offline studies focusing either on the marine or on the terrestrial carbon cycle highlighted such potential effects. Two recent online studies, using ocean-atmosphere general circulation models coupled to land and ocean carbon cycle models, investigated in a consistent way the feedback between the climate change and the carbon cycle. These two studies used observed anthropogenic CO 2 emissions for the 1860-1995 period and IPCC scenarios for the 1995-2100 period to force the climate - carbon cycle models. The study from the Hadley Centre group showed a very large positive feedback, atmospheric CO 2 reaching 980 ppmv by 2100 if future climate impacts on the carbon cycle, but only about 700 ppmv if the carbon cycle is included but assumed to be insensitive to the climate change. The IPSL coupled climate - carbon cycle model simulated a much smaller positive feedback: climate impact on the carbon cycle leads by 2100 to an addition of less than 100 ppmv in the atmosphere. Here we perform a detailed feedback analysis to show that such differences are due to two key processes that are still poorly constrained in these coupled models: first Southern Ocean circulation, which primarily controls the geochemical uptake of CO 2 , and second vegetation and soil carbon response to global warming. Our analytical analysis reproduces remarkably the results obtained by the fully coupled models. Also it allows us to identify that, amongst the two processes mentioned above, the latter (the land response to global warming) is the one that essentially explains the differences between the IPSL and the Hadley results

The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

2013-01-01

The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

The origins and behaviour of carbon in a major semi-arid river, the Murray River, Australia, as constrained by carbon isotopes and hydrochemistry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cartwright, Ian

2010-01-01

Research highlights: → δ 13 C and concentrations of DIC in Murray River controlled by mineralisation of organic carbon and evasion. → Murray River is source of atmospheric CO 2 . → In-river processing of carbon results in difficulties in determining carbon sources. - Abstract: δ 13 C values of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), dissolved organic C (DOC), and particulate organic C (POC) together with δ 18 O and δ 2 H values of water, δ 34 S values of dissolved SO 4 , and major ion concentrations were measured in the Murray River and its tributaries between November 2005 and April 2007 to constrain the origins and behaviour of riverine C. δ 13 C DIC values in the Murray River vary between -9.5 and -4.7 per mille with a range of 13 C DIC values of the tributaries are -11.0 per mille to -5.1 per mille. DIC concentrations of the Murray River increase from ∼25 mg/L in the middle and upper reaches of the river to 45-55 mg/L in the lower reaches. However, the mass ratio of DIC as a proportion of the total dissolved solids (TDS) decreases from ∼0.6-0.7 in the headwaters to ∼0.2-0.3 in the lower reaches of the river, with similar downstream changes in DIC/Cl ratios. This precludes simple evaporative concentration of DIC and is interpreted as the river evading CO 2 ; this interpretation is consistent with pCO 2 values that are in the range 550-11,200 ppm volume (ppmv), which are far higher than those in equilibrium with the atmosphere (∼360 ppmv). The δ 13 C DIC values are similar to those that would be produced by the weathering of marine limestone (δ 13 C ∼ 0 per mille). However, the lack of marine limestones cropping out in the Murray-Darling Basin and the relatively uniform δ 13 C DIC values of the Murray River (even in upland reaches where the dominant rock types are metamorphosed silicates and granites) make this unlikely. Rather the high pCO 2 values and δ 13 C DIC values are best explained by a combination of mineralisation of low δ 13 C organic C

A comparative economic assessment of hydrogen production from large central versus smaller distributed plant in a carbon constrained world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, Y.V.; Ngo, Y.A.; Tinkler, M.J.; Cowan, N.

2003-01-01

This paper compares the economics of producing hydrogen at large central plants versus smaller distributed plants at user sites. The economics of two types of central plant, each at 100 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen, based on electrolysis and natural gas steam reforming technologies, will be discussed. The additional cost of controlling CO 2 emissions from the natural gas steam reforming plant will be included in the analysis in order to satisfy the need to live in a future carbon constrained world. The cost of delivery of hydrogen from the large central plant to the user sites in a large metropolitan area will be highlighted, and the delivered cost will be compared to the cost from on-site distributed generation plants. Five types of distributed generation plants, based on proton exchange membrane, alkaline electrolysis and advanced steam reforming, will be analysed and discussed. Two criteria were used to rank various hydrogen production options, the cost of production and the price of hydrogen to achieve an acceptable return of investment. (author)

Viewls - Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenarios. Final report of WP3 of the VIEWLS project, funded by DG-Tren

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dam, J. van; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I. (and others)

2006-01-15

The EU has set ambitious targets to increase the use of Renewable Energy Sources from which a large part has to come from biomass To meet these targets, a large amount of biomass resources is needed which requires large areas of land in the EU. This article discusses a methodology and results for a regional biomass potential assessment in Central and Eastern European Accession countries (CEEC). The biomass potential assessment is implemented for a defined set of scenarios. The scenarios are based on the main drivers in Europe relevant for agriculture and land use change, i.e. World Trade Negotiations or Common Agricultural Policy. The methodology for the biomass potential assessment is based on land use changes over time. A certain amount of land is needed to meet the required production for food (derived from agricultural crops and livestock) and wood products. The surplus available land can possibly be used for biomass production. Results of the biomass potential assessment are available on a Nuts-3 region level in the CEEC for different scenarios. As the concept of large-scale biomass production is only feasible when production is profitable for the stakeholders involved, price and cost-relations are included in the assessment. Final deliverable are cost-supply curves from different sources (energy crops, residues) and scenarios for the CEEC. (au)

Estimation of Crop Coefficient of Corn (Kccorn under Climate Change Scenarios Using Data Mining Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kampanad Bhaktikul

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main objectives of this study are to determine the crop coefficient of corn (Kccorn using data mining technique under climate change scenarios, and to develop the guidelines for future water management based on climate change scenarios. Variables including date, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from seven meteorological stations during 1991 to 2000 were used. Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM was applied for data collection and analyses. The procedures compose of investigation of input data, model set up using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, model evaluation, and finally estimation of the Kccorn. Three climate change scenarios of carbon dioxide (CO2 concentration level: 360 ppm, 540 ppm, and 720 ppm were set. The results indicated that the best number of node of input layer - hidden layer - output layer was 7-13-1. The correlation coefficient of model was 0.99. The predicted Kccorn revealed that evapotranspiration (ETcorn pattern will be changed significantly upon CO2 concentration level. From the model predictions, ETcorn will be decreased 3.34% when CO2 increased from 360 ppm to 540 ppm. For the double CO2 concentration from 360 ppm to 720 ppm, ETcorn will be increased 16.13%. The future water management guidelines to cope with the climate change are suggested.

Multi-example feature-constrained back-projection method for image super-resolution

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Junlei Zhang; Dianguang Gai; Xin Zhang; Xuemei Li

2017-01-01

Example-based super-resolution algorithms,which predict unknown high-resolution image information using a relationship model learnt from known high- and low-resolution image pairs, have attracted considerable interest in the field of image processing. In this paper, we propose a multi-example feature-constrained back-projection method for image super-resolution. Firstly, we take advantage of a feature-constrained polynomial interpolation method to enlarge the low-resolution image. Next, we consider low-frequency images of different resolutions to provide an example pair. Then, we use adaptive k NN search to find similar patches in the low-resolution image for every image patch in the high-resolution low-frequency image, leading to a regression model between similar patches to be learnt. The learnt model is applied to the low-resolution high-frequency image to produce high-resolution high-frequency information. An iterative back-projection algorithm is used as the final step to determine the final high-resolution image.Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the visual quality of the high-resolution image.

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

Constraining stellar binary black hole formation scenarios with eLISA eccentricity measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Nishizawa, Atsushi; Sesana, Alberto; Berti, Emanuele; Klein, Antoine

2017-03-01

A space-based interferometer such as the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) could observe a few to a few thousands of progenitors of black hole binaries (BHBs) similar to those recently detected by Advanced LIGO. Gravitational radiation circularizes the orbit during inspiral, but some BHBs retain a measurable eccentricity at the low frequencies where eLISA is the most sensitive. The eccentricity of a BHB carries precious information about its formation channel: BHBs formed in the field, in globular clusters, or close to a massive black hole (MBH) have distinct eccentricity distributions in the eLISA band. We generate mock eLISA observations, folding in measurement errors, and using a Bayesian model selection, we study whether eLISA measurements can identify the BHB formation channel. We find that a handful of observations would suffice to tell whether BHBs were formed in the gravitational field of an MBH. Conversely, several tens of observations are needed to tell apart field formation from globular cluster formation. A 5-yr eLISA mission with the longest possible armlength is desirable to shed light on BHB formation scenarios.

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Carlson

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

2016-01-01

This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2012-01-01

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the

“Investments and public finance in a green, low carbon, economy”

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carraro, Carlo; Favero, Alice; Massetti, Emanuele

2012-01-01

The paper evaluates the impacts on investments and public finance of a transition to a green, low carbon, economy induced by carbon taxation. Four global tax scenarios are examined using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Taxes are levied on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and lead to global GHG concentrations equal to 680, 560, 500 and 460 ppm CO 2 -eq in 2100. Investments in the power sector increase with respect to the Reference scenario only with the two highest taxes. Investments in energy-related R and D increase in all tax scenarios, but they are a small fraction of GDP. Investments in oil upstream decline in all scenarios. As a result, total investments decline with respect to the Reference scenario. Carbon tax revenues are high in absolute terms and as share of GDP. With high carbon taxes, tax revenues follow a “carbon Laffer” curve. The model assumes that tax revenues are flawlessly recycled lump-sum into the economy. In all scenarios, the power sector becomes a net recipient of subsidies to support the absorption of GHGs. In some regions, with high carbon taxes, subsidies to GHG removal are higher than tax revenues at the end of the century. - Highlights: ► Costs, investments and tax revenues induced by carbon taxes are only loosely related. ► Investments in power generation increase only with stabilization targets below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq. ► The carbon taxes induce an overall contraction of investments. ► Tax revenues can be as high as 20% of GDP and follow a “carbon” Laffer curve. ► Subsidies for absorption of GHG may be higher than carbon taxes at the end of the century.

Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Langerwisch, Fanny; Walz, Ariane; Rammig, Anja; Tietjen, Britta; Thonicke, Kirsten; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-12-01

Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20 % (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60 % due to

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengis, Nadine; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Jalbert, Jonathan; Matthews, H Damon

2018-04-11

Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO 2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO 2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO 2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO 2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO 2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

Electrochemomechanical constrained multiobjective optimization of PPy/MWCNT actuators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalili, N; Naguib, H E; Kwon, R H

2014-01-01

Polypyrrole (PPy) conducting polymers have shown a great potential for the fabrication of conjugated polymer-based actuating devices. Consequently, they have been a key point in developing many advanced emerging applications such as biomedical devices and biomimetic robotics. When designing an actuator, taking all of the related decision variables, their roles and relationships into consideration is of pivotal importance to determine the actuator’s final performance. Therefore, the central focus of this study is to develop an electrochemomechanical constrained multiobjective optimization model of a PPy/MWCNTs trilayer actuator. For this purpose, the objective functions are designed to capture the three main characteristics of these actuators, namely their tip vertical displacement, blocking force and response time. To obtain the optimum range of the designated decision variables within the feasible domain, a multiobjective optimization algorithm is applied while appropriate constraints are imposed. The optimum points form a Pareto surface on which they are consistently spread. The numerical results are presented; these results enable one to design an actuator with consideration to the desired output performances. For the experimental analysis, a multilayer bending-type actuator is fabricated, which is composed of a PVDF layer and two layers of PPy with an incorporated layer of multi-walled carbon nanotubes deposited on each side of the PVDF membrane. The numerical results are experimentally verified; in order to determine the performance of the fabricated actuator, its outputs are compared with a neat PPy actuator’s experimental and numerical counterparts. (paper)

Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Somoza-Cabrera

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

Genetic control of water use efficiency and leaf carbon isotope discrimination in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) subjected to two drought scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Adiredjo, Afifuddin Latif; Navaud, Olivier; Muños, Stephane; Langlade, Nicolas B; Lamaze, Thierry; Grieu, Philippe

2014-01-01

High water use efficiency (WUE) can be achieved by coordination of biomass accumulation and water consumption. WUE is physiologically and genetically linked to carbon isotope discrimination (CID) in leaves of plants. A population of 148 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of sunflower derived from a cross between XRQ and PSC8 lines was studied to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) controlling WUE and CID, and to compare QTL associated with these traits in different drought scenarios. We conducted greenhouse experiments in 2011 and 2012 by using 100 balances which provided a daily measurement of water transpired, and we determined WUE, CID, biomass and cumulative water transpired by plants. Wide phenotypic variability, significant genotypic effects, and significant negative correlations between WUE and CID were observed in both experiments. A total of nine QTL controlling WUE and eight controlling CID were identified across the two experiments. A QTL for phenotypic response controlling WUE and CID was also significantly identified. The QTL for WUE were specific to the drought scenarios, whereas the QTL for CID were independent of the drought scenarios and could be found in all the experiments. Our results showed that the stable genomic regions controlling CID were located on the linkage groups 06 and 13 (LG06 and LG13). Three QTL for CID were co-localized with the QTL for WUE, biomass and cumulative water transpired. We found that CID and WUE are highly correlated and have common genetic control. Interestingly, the genetic control of these traits showed an interaction with the environment (between the two drought scenarios and control conditions). Our results open a way for breeding higher WUE by using CID and marker-assisted approaches and therefore help to maintain the stability of sunflower crop production.

Committed carbon emissions, deforestation, and community land conversion from oil palm plantation expansion in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Kimberly M; Curran, Lisa M; Ratnasari, Dessy; Pittman, Alice M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S; Asner, Gregory P; Trigg, Simon N; Gaveau, David A; Lawrence, Deborah; Rodrigues, Hermann O

2012-05-08

Industrial agricultural plantations are a rapidly increasing yet largely unmeasured source of tropical land cover change. Here, we evaluate impacts of oil palm plantation development on land cover, carbon flux, and agrarian community lands in West Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. With a spatially explicit land change/carbon bookkeeping model, parameterized using high-resolution satellite time series and informed by socioeconomic surveys, we assess previous and project future plantation expansion under five scenarios. Although fire was the primary proximate cause of 1989-2008 deforestation (93%) and net carbon emissions (69%), by 2007-2008, oil palm directly caused 27% of total and 40% of peatland deforestation. Plantation land sources exhibited distinctive temporal dynamics, comprising 81% forests on mineral soils (1994-2001), shifting to 69% peatlands (2008-2011). Plantation leases reveal vast development potential. In 2008, leases spanned ∼65% of the region, including 62% on peatlands and 59% of community-managed lands, yet carbon emissions. Intact forest cover declines to 4%, and the proportion of emissions sourced from peatlands increases 38%. Prohibiting intact and logged forest and peatland conversion to oil palm reduces emissions only 4% below BAU, because of continued uncontrolled fire. Protecting logged forests achieves greater carbon emissions reductions (21%) than protecting intact forests alone (9%) and is critical for mitigating carbon emissions. Extensive allocated leases constrain land management options, requiring trade-offs among oil palm production, carbon emissions mitigation, and maintaining community landholdings.

Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

2012-03-01

The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

Constraining Forest Certificate’s Market to Improve Cost-Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation in São Paulo State, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Blumentrath, Stefan; Barton, David N.; Rusch, Graciela M.; Romeiro, Ademar R.

2016-01-01

The recently launched Brazilian “forest certificates” market is expected to reduce environmental compliance costs for landowners through an offset mechanism, after a long history of conservation laws based in command-and-control and strict rules. In this paper we assessed potential costs and evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the instrument when introducing to this market constraints that aim to address conservation objectives more specifically. Using the conservation planning software Marxan with Zones we simulated different scopes for the “forest certificates” market, and compared their cost-effectiveness with that of existing command-and-control (C&C), i.e. compliance to the Legal Reserve on own property, in the state of São Paulo. The simulations showed a clear potential of the constrained “forest certificates” market to improve conservation effectiveness and increase cost-effectiveness on allocation of Legal Reserves. Although the inclusion of an additional constraint of targeting the BIOTA Conservation Priority Areas doubled the cost (+95%) compared with a “free trade” scenario constrained only by biome, this option was still 50% less costly than the baseline scenario of compliance with Legal Reserve at the property. PMID:27780220

Mature Basin Development Portfolio Management in a Resource Constrained Environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandhane, J. M.; Udo, S. D.

2002-01-01

Nigerian Petroleum industry is constantly faced with management of resource constraints stemming from capital and operating budget, availability of skilled manpower, capacity of an existing surface facility, size of well assets, amount of soft and hard information, etceteras. Constrained capital forces the industry to rank subsurface resource and potential before proceeding with preparation of development scenarios. Availability of skilled manpower limits scope of integrated reservoir studies. Level of information forces technical and management to find low-risk development alternative in a limited time. Volume of either oil or natural gas or water or combination of them may be constrained due to design limits of the existing facility, or an external OPEC quota, requires high portfolio management skills.The first part of the paper statistically analyses development portfolio of a mature basin for (a) subsurface resources volume, (b) developed and undeveloped and undeveloped volumes, (c) sweating of wells, and (d) facility assets. The analysis presented conclusively demonstrates that the 80/20 is active in the statistical sample. The 80/20 refers to 80% of the effect coming from the 20% of the cause. The second part of the paper deals with how 80/20 could be applied to manage portfolio for a given set of constraints. Three application examples are discussed. Feedback on implementation of them resulting in focussed resource management with handsome rewards is documented.The statistical analysis and application examples from a mature basin form a way forward for a development portfolio management in an resource constrained environment

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Nicault, Antoine; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Ribas, Montserrat; Guiot, Joel

2017-07-01

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (c a ) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010-2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c a ; (ii) constant c a  = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c a , enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high c a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario

Carbon debt - Lost in the forest?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentsen, Niclas Scott

2014-01-01

The concept of ‘carbon debt’ and carbon payback time with reference to bioenergy and biofuels was probably launched by anarticle in Science in 2008. The concept is increasingly seen as an indicator of the sustainability of bioenergy supply chains.Particularly for forest bioenergy supply chains...... the time lapse between harvest and regrowth may be a signifi cant factor for themodeled carbon debt. A meta-analysis of more than 250 model scenarios was conducted to evaluate the factors and assumptionsdetermining carbon debts and payback time of forest bioenergy supply chains. Factors such as spatial...... and temporal scale, biome,origin of the wood resource, which fossil fuels are displaced, forest history, baseline scenario, accounting principle, and databackground were included in the analysis. This paper discusses the evolution of the carbon debt concept, how different factorsand assumptions infl uence...

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Liberating energy from carbon introduction to decarbonization

CERN Document Server

Muradov, Nazim

2014-01-01

Liberating Energy from Carbon analyzes energy options in a carbon-constrained world. Major strategies and pathways to decarbonizing the carbon-intensive economy are laid out with a special emphasis on the prospects of achieving low-risk atmospheric CO2 levels. The opportunities and challenges in developing and bringing to market novel low and zero-carbon technologies are highlighted from technical, economic and environmental viewpoints. This book takes a unique approach by treating carbon in a holistic manner?tracking its complete transformation chain from fossil fuel sources to the unique pro

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

75 FR 45467 - Certain Magnesia Carbon Bricks From the People's Republic of China: Final Determination of Sales...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-02

... the People's Republic of China: Verification of Fengchi Import & Export Co., Ltd. of Haicheng City... Certain Magnesia Carbon Bricks from the People's Republic of China and Mexico: Initiation of Antidumping... from the People's Republic of China; Final Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value and Critical...

A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichii, Kazuhito; Murakami, Kazutaka; Mukai, Toshikazu; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Ogawa, Katsuro

2003-01-01

A simple Earth system model, the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model, has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO 2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model, the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model, and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model, which includes the greenhouse effect of CO 2 and H 2 O, and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model, which includes biospheric CO 2 fertilization, vegetation area variation, the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content, soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the 'business as usual' (IS92a) emission scenario, followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170, and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO 2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies, because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO 2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO 2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO 2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand, as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained, we have to quantify and constrain the effect more

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. B. Zapata

2018-04-01

Full Text Available California's goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions to a level that is 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors. In addition to reducing GHG emissions, shifting to fuels with lower carbon intensity will change concentrations of short-lived conventional air pollutants, including airborne particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5 and ozone (O3. Here we evaluate how business-as-usual (BAU air pollution and public health in California will be transformed in the year 2050 through the adoption of low-carbon technologies, expanded electrification, and modified activity patterns within a low-carbon energy scenario (GHG-Step. Both the BAU and GHG-Step statewide emission scenarios were constructed using the energy–economic optimization model, CA-TIMES, that calculates the multi-sector energy portfolio that meets projected energy supply and demand at the lowest cost, while also satisfying scenario-specific GHG emissions constraints. Corresponding criteria pollutant emissions for each scenario were then spatially allocated at 4 km resolution to support air quality analysis in different regions of the state. Meteorological inputs for the year 2054 were generated under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 future climate. Annual-average PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were predicted using the modified emissions and meteorology inputs with a regional chemical transport model. In the final phase of the analysis, mortality (total deaths and mortality rate (deaths per 100 000 were calculated using established exposure-response relationships from air pollution epidemiology combined with simulated annual-average PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Net emissions reductions across all sectors are −36 % for PM0.1 mass, −3.6 % for PM2.5 mass, −10.6 % for PM2.5 elemental carbon, −13.3 % for PM2.5 organic carbon, −13.7 % for NOx, and −27.5 % for NH3

Measure a carbon impact methodology in line with a 2 degree scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coeslier, Manuel; Finidori, Esther; Smia, Ladislas

2015-11-01

Today, high expectations surround the measurement of carbon impact. Voluntary initiatives and - little by little - legislation push institutional investors to consider the impact that financial portfolios have on the climate and energy transition. However, current methods (of carbon footprint measurement) are not adequate to determine an investment portfolio's contribution to these issues. Current approaches, which do not take a life-cycle vision of carbon foot-printing, have the particular flaw of not accounting for emissions related to companies' products and services. The impact of these products and services on the climate is, however, crucial in many sectors - whether positively in the case of renewable energy and energy efficiency solutions, or negatively in the case of fossil fuels. Following this observation, Mirova and Carbone 4 decided to create a partnership dedicated to developing a new methodology capable of providing a carbon measurement that is aligned with the issues of energy transition: Carbon Impact Analytics (CIA). The CIA methodology focuses primarily on three indicators: - A measure of emissions 'induced' by a company's activity from a life-cycle approach, taking into account direct emissions as well as emissions from product suppliers; - A measure of the emissions which are 'avoided' due to efficiency efforts or deployment of 'low-carbon' solutions; - An overall evaluation that takes into account, in addition to carbon measurement, further information on the company's evolution and the type of capital or R and D expenditures. For these evaluations, the methodology employs a bottom-up approach in which each company is examined individually according to an evaluation framework adapted to each sector. Particular scrutiny is devoted to companies with a significant climate impact: energy producers, carbon-intensive sectors (industry, construction, transport), and providers of low-carbon equipment and solutions. Evaluations are then aggregated at

Epoch of reionization 21 cm forecasting from MCMC-constrained semi-numerical models

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Sultan; Davé, Romeel; Finlator, Kristian; Santos, Mario G.

2017-06-01

The recent low value of Planck Collaboration XLVII integrated optical depth to Thomson scattering suggests that the reionization occurred fairly suddenly, disfavouring extended reionization scenarios. This will have a significant impact on the 21 cm power spectrum. Using a semi-numerical framework, we improve our model from instantaneous to include time-integrated ionization and recombination effects, and find that this leads to more sudden reionization. It also yields larger H II bubbles that lead to an order of magnitude more 21 cm power on large scales, while suppressing the small-scale ionization power. Local fluctuations in the neutral hydrogen density play the dominant role in boosting the 21 cm power spectrum on large scales, while recombinations are subdominant. We use a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach to constrain our model to observations of the star formation rate functions at z = 6, 7, 8 from Bouwens et al., the Planck Collaboration XLVII optical depth measurements and the Becker & Bolton ionizing emissivity data at z ˜ 5. We then use this constrained model to perform 21 cm forecasting for Low Frequency Array, Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array and Square Kilometre Array in order to determine how well such data can characterize the sources driving reionization. We find that the Mock 21 cm power spectrum alone can somewhat constrain the halo mass dependence of ionizing sources, the photon escape fraction and ionizing amplitude, but combining the Mock 21 cm data with other current observations enables us to separately constrain all these parameters. Our framework illustrates how the future 21 cm data can play a key role in understanding the sources and topology of reionization as observations improve.

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Anable, Jillian

2012-01-01

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario “models”, this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport–energy–environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals. - Research highlights: ►New strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model. ►Tool to develop and analyse full consequences of multiple scenarios of transport policy packages. ►Novel approach to modelling demand for new vehicles by market and technology. ►Model available for use by research community via http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-index.php?page=UK+Transport+Carbon+Model.

Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

1991-01-01

The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

CONSTRAINING JET PRODUCTION SCENARIOS BY STUDIES OF NARROW-LINE RADIO GALAXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sikora, Marek [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Stasinska, Grazyna [LUTH, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Universite Paris Diderot, Place Jules Janssen, F-92190 Meudon (France); Koziel-Wierzbowska, Dorota [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Krakow (Poland); Madejski, Greg M. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Asari, Natalia V., E-mail: sikora@camk.edu.pl [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

2013-03-01

We study a large sample of narrow-line radio galaxies (NLRGs) with extended radio structures. Using 1.4 GHz radio luminosities L {sub 1.4}, narrow optical emission line luminosities L {sub [OIII]} and L{sub H{sub {alpha}}}, as well as black hole masses M {sub BH} derived from stellar velocity dispersions measured from the optical spectra obtained with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we find that (1) NLRGs cover about four decades of the Eddington ratio, {lambda} {identical_to} L {sub bol}/L {sub Edd}{proportional_to}L {sub line}/M {sub BH}; (2) L {sub 1.4}/M {sub BH} strongly correlates with {lambda}; and (3) radio loudness, R{identical_to}L{sub 1.4}/L{sub line}, strongly anti-correlates with {lambda}. A very broad range of the Eddington ratio indicates that the parent population of NLRGs includes both radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and broad-line radio galaxies (BLRGs). The correlations they obey and their high jet production efficiencies favor a jet production model which involves the so-called magnetically choked accretion scenario. In this model, production of the jet is dominated by the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, and the magnetic fields in the vicinity of the central black hole are confined by the ram pressure of the accretion flow. Since large net magnetic flux accumulated in central regions of the accretion flow required by the model can take place only via geometrically thick accretion, we speculate that the massive, 'cold' accretion events associated with luminous emission-line active galactic nucleus can be accompanied by an efficient jet production only if preceded by a hot, very sub-Eddington accretion phase.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Decision and coordination of low-carbon supply chain considering technological spillover and environmental awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lang; Wang, Chuanxu; Li, Hui

2017-06-08

We focus on the impacts of technological spillovers and environmental awareness in a two-echelon supply chain with one-single supplier and one-single manufacturer to reduce carbon emission. In this supply chain, carbon abatement investment becomes one of key factors of cutting costs and improving profits, which is reducing production costs in the components and products-the investment from players in supply chain. On the basis of optimality theory, the centralized and decentralized models are respectively established to investigate the optimal decisions and profits. Further, setting the players' profits of the decentralized scenario as the disagreement points, we propose a bargaining-coordination contract through revenue-cost sharing to enhance the performance. Finally, by theoretical comparison and numerical analysis, the results show that: (i) The optimal profits of players and supply chain improve as technological spillovers and environmental awareness increase, and the profits of them in the bargaining-coordination contract are higher than that in the decentralized scenario; (ii) Technological spillovers between the players amplify the impact of "free-ride" behavior, in which the supplier always incentives the manufacturer to improve carbon emission intensity, but the cooperation will achieves and the profits will improve only when technological spillovers and environmental awareness are great; (iii) The contract can effectively achieve coordinated supply chain, and improve carbon abatement investment.

Carbon reduction potentials of China's industrial parks: A case study of Suzhou Industry Park

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hongsheng; Lei, Yue; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Miaomiao; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

2013-01-01

Industrial parks are the economic engines for many China regions, but they also consume a great deal of energy and emit greenhouse gases. However, few empirical studies have examined these special communities. We selected SIP (Suzhou Industrial Park) as a case study. Carbon emissions from SIP were accounted from the consumption perspective to analyze their characteristics. Results showed total carbon emissions grew 85.2% from 2005 to 2010, and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP (gross domestic product)) decreased by 9%. Scenario analysis was then used to depict emissions trajectories under three different pathways. The total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions for SIP will undoubtedly increase in the near future under a business-as-usual scenario, improved-policy scenario, and low-carbon scenario; the carbon intensity will decrease by 38% under low-carbon scenario, but it will still be difficult to reach the national mitigation target. In addition, geographic-boundary-based accounting methodology was applied for comparison analysis, carbon emissions show a large gap of 42.4–65.1% from 2005 to 2010, due to failure to account for cross-boundary emissions from imported electricity. Therefore, comprehensive analysis from a consumption perspective is necessary to provide a fair and comprehensive tool for China's local decision-makers to evaluate carbon mitigation potentials. - Highlights: ► Carbon reduction potentials of industrial parks, which are important communities in China, were analyzed. ► Comprehensive carbon emission inventories were developed for a China's industrial park. ► Policies were recommended for industrial parks to achieve low-carbon development target. ► Consumption-based emission inventory is necessary for local government to evaluate carbon reduction potentials

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

Lupus Disks with Faint CO Isotopologues: Low Gas/Dust or High Carbon Depletion?

Science.gov (United States)

Miotello, Anna

2017-11-01

With the advent of ALMA, complete surveys of gas and dust in protoplanetary disks are being carried out in different star forming regions. In particular, continuum emission is used to trace the large (mm-sized) dust grains and CO isotopologues are observed in order to trace the bulk of the gas. The attempt is to simultaneously constrain the gas and dust disk mass as well as the gas/dust mass ratio. In this presentation I will present the Lupus disk survey observations, analyzed with thermo-chemical disk models, including radiative transfer, CO isotope-selective processes and freeze-out. The main result is that CO-based gas masses are very low, often smaller than Jupiter Mass. Moreover, gas/dust mass ratios are much lower than value of 100 found in the ISM, being mainly between 1 and 10. This result can be interpreted either as rapid loss of gas, or as a chemical effect removing carbon from CO and locking it into more complex molecules or in larger bodies. Previous data cannot distinguish between the two scenarios (except for sources with detected HD lines), but new Cycle 4 observations of hydrocarbon lines will be presented and they can help to calibrate CO-based gas masses and to constrain disk gas masses.

Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat; MacGill, Iain F.

2013-01-01

This paper employs a novel Monte-Carlo based generation portfolio assessment tool to explore the implications of increasing wind penetration and carbon prices within future electricity generation portfolios under considerable uncertainty. This tool combines optimal generation mix techniques with Monte Carlo simulation and portfolio analysis methods to determine expected overall generation costs, associated cost uncertainty and expected CO 2 emissions for different possible generation portfolios. A case study of an electricity industry with coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) and wind generation options that faces uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon pricing, electricity demand and plant construction costs is presented to illustrate some of the key issues associated with growing wind penetrations. The case study uses half-hourly demand and wind generation data from South Eastern Australia, and regional estimates of new-build plant costs and characteristics. Results suggest that although wind generation generally increases overall industry costs, it reduces associated cost uncertainties and CO 2 emissions. However, there are some cases in which wind generation can reduce the overall costs of generation portfolios. The extent to which wind penetration affects industry expected costs and uncertainties depends on the level of carbon price and the conventional technology mix in the portfolios. - Highlights: ► A probabilistic portfolio analysis tool to assess generation portfolios with wind power. ► Explore the impacts of wind penetrations and carbon prices under uncertainties. ► Wind generation increases overall portfolio costs but reduces cost risks and emissions. ► The value of wind power depends on the carbon price and the technology mix. ► Complex interactions between wind penetration level and carbon pricing.

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

The origins and behaviour of carbon in a major semi-arid river, the Murray River, Australia, as constrained by carbon isotopes and hydrochemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cartwright, Ian, E-mail: ian.cartwright@monash.edu [School of Geosciences, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3800 (Australia)] [National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Flinders University, Adelaide SA 5001 (Australia)

2010-11-15

Research highlights: {yields} {delta}{sup 13}C and concentrations of DIC in Murray River controlled by mineralisation of organic carbon and evasion. {yields} Murray River is source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. {yields} In-river processing of carbon results in difficulties in determining carbon sources. - Abstract: {delta}{sup 13}C values of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), dissolved organic C (DOC), and particulate organic C (POC) together with {delta}{sup 18}O and {delta}{sup 2}H values of water, {delta}{sup 34}S values of dissolved SO{sub 4}, and major ion concentrations were measured in the Murray River and its tributaries between November 2005 and April 2007 to constrain the origins and behaviour of riverine C. {delta}{sup 13}C{sub DIC} values in the Murray River vary between -9.5 and -4.7 per mille with a range of <3 per mille within any sampling round. {delta}{sup 13}C{sub DIC} values of the tributaries are -11.0 per mille to -5.1 per mille. DIC concentrations of the Murray River increase from {approx}25 mg/L in the middle and upper reaches of the river to 45-55 mg/L in the lower reaches. However, the mass ratio of DIC as a proportion of the total dissolved solids (TDS) decreases from {approx}0.6-0.7 in the headwaters to {approx}0.2-0.3 in the lower reaches of the river, with similar downstream changes in DIC/Cl ratios. This precludes simple evaporative concentration of DIC and is interpreted as the river evading CO{sub 2}; this interpretation is consistent with pCO{sub 2} values that are in the range 550-11,200 ppm volume (ppmv), which are far higher than those in equilibrium with the atmosphere ({approx}360 ppmv). The {delta}{sup 13}C{sub DIC} values are similar to those that would be produced by the weathering of marine limestone ({delta}{sup 13}C {approx} 0 per mille). However, the lack of marine limestones cropping out in the Murray-Darling Basin and the relatively uniform {delta}{sup 13}C{sub DIC} values of the Murray River (even in upland reaches where the

78 FR 16252 - Certain Hot-Rolled Carbon Steel Flat Products From India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Final Results...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-14

... Indonesia P.T. Krakatau Steel 10.21 All Others 10.21 Thailand Sahaviriya Steel Industries Public Company...] Certain Hot-Rolled Carbon Steel Flat Products From India, Indonesia, and Thailand: Final Results of... products (``HR steel'') from India, Indonesia, and Thailand pursuant to section 751(c) of the Tariff Act of...

Using n-alkane records to constrain carbon cycle - hydrological cycle coupling: Case study from the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the PETM

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, S.; Pagani, M.; Tipple, B. J.

2010-12-01

Forada we observe a pre-excursion shift toward more positive values. Comparison of the mean-weighted isotopic trends (to account for vegetation changes) indicates that the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions shift simultaneously at the start of the CIE at Cicogna and Forada and remain coupled during the latter part of the recovery. However, the most depleted values in δD do not coincide with the most negative δ13C values, suggesting that the response time of the hydrological cycle was slower than the carbon isotopic excursion. The δD trends appear to diverge from δ13C records during the initial recovery period. This difference in response and response times between the initial perturbation and recovery enable us to constrain the timing and mechanism of feedbacks. A third section (Alamedilla), located at lower latitude, will be used to test these hypotheses. The timing and average magnitudes of δD changes at these three sites will be extrapolated to infer precipitation trends during the late Paleocene, peak PETM, and early Eocene for this region and will be useful for future data-model comparisons.

Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. forests in Zala County, Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somogyi Zoltán

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that climate change will lead to the local extinction of many tree species from large areas during this century, affecting the functioning and ecosystem services of many forests. This study reports on projected carbon losses due to the assumed local climate change-driven extinction of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. from Zala County, South-Western Hungary, where the species grows at the xeric limit of its distribution. The losses were calculated as a difference between carbon stocks in climate change scenarios assuming an exponentially increasing forest decline over time, and those in a baseline scenario assuming no climate change. In the climate change scenarios, three different sets of forest management adaptation measures were studied: (1 only harvesting damaged stands, (2 additionally salvaging dead trees that died due to climate change, and (3 replacing, at an increasing rate over time, beech with sessile oak (Quercus petraea Matt. Lieb. after final harvest. Projections were made using the open access carbon accounting model CASMOFOR based on modeling or assuming effects of climate change on mortality, tree growth, root-to-shoot ratio and decomposition rates. Results demonstrate that, if beech disappears from the region as projected by the end of the century, over 80% of above-ground biomass carbon, and over 60% of the carbon stocks of all pools (excluding soils of the forests will be lost by 2100. Such emission rates on large areas may have a discernible positive feedback on climate change, and can only partially be offset by the forest management adaptation measures.

Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

2014-01-01

Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

The geopolitics of oil in a carbon-constrained world

OpenAIRE

Verbruggen, Aviel; Van de Graaf, Thijs

2015-01-01

Aviel Verbruggen and Thijs Van de Graaf posit that the dominant view of oil geopolitics as a struggle over scarce reserves is lopsided. Assuming that strict carbon limits will be imposed as a result of expected climate change, they believe oil markets will face a structural glut. The geopolitics of oil revolves around abundance-induced conflict, with rival oil producers competing to serve the shrinking oil market.

Coral Carbonic Anhydrases: Regulation by Ocean Acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Zoccola, Didier; Innocenti, Alessio; Bertucci, Anthony; Tambutté, Eric; Supuran, Claudiu T; Tambutté, Sylvie

2016-06-03

Global change is a major threat to the oceans, as it implies temperature increase and acidification. Ocean acidification (OA) involving decreasing pH and changes in seawater carbonate chemistry challenges the capacity of corals to form their skeletons. Despite the large number of studies that have investigated how rates of calcification respond to ocean acidification scenarios, comparatively few studies tackle how ocean acidification impacts the physiological mechanisms that drive calcification itself. The aim of our paper was to determine how the carbonic anhydrases, which play a major role in calcification, are potentially regulated by ocean acidification. For this we measured the effect of pH on enzyme activity of two carbonic anhydrase isoforms that have been previously characterized in the scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata. In addition we looked at gene expression of these enzymes in vivo. For both isoforms, our results show (1) a change in gene expression under OA (2) an effect of OA and temperature on carbonic anhydrase activity. We suggest that temperature increase could counterbalance the effect of OA on enzyme activity. Finally we point out that caution must, thus, be taken when interpreting transcriptomic data on carbonic anhydrases in ocean acidification and temperature stress experiments, as the effect of these stressors on the physiological function of CA will depend both on gene expression and enzyme activity.

Coral Carbonic Anhydrases: Regulation by Ocean Acidification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Zoccola

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Global change is a major threat to the oceans, as it implies temperature increase and acidification. Ocean acidification (OA involving decreasing pH and changes in seawater carbonate chemistry challenges the capacity of corals to form their skeletons. Despite the large number of studies that have investigated how rates of calcification respond to ocean acidification scenarios, comparatively few studies tackle how ocean acidification impacts the physiological mechanisms that drive calcification itself. The aim of our paper was to determine how the carbonic anhydrases, which play a major role in calcification, are potentially regulated by ocean acidification. For this we measured the effect of pH on enzyme activity of two carbonic anhydrase isoforms that have been previously characterized in the scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata. In addition we looked at gene expression of these enzymes in vivo. For both isoforms, our results show (1 a change in gene expression under OA (2 an effect of OA and temperature on carbonic anhydrase activity. We suggest that temperature increase could counterbalance the effect of OA on enzyme activity. Finally we point out that caution must, thus, be taken when interpreting transcriptomic data on carbonic anhydrases in ocean acidification and temperature stress experiments, as the effect of these stressors on the physiological function of CA will depend both on gene expression and enzyme activity.

Key conclusions from AVOID Work Stream One

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, Rachel

2010-05-01

AVOID work stream (WS1)one has produced emission scenarios that simulate potential future global emission pathways for greenhouse gases during the 21st century. The study explored the influence of three key features of such pathways: (1) the year in which emissions peak globally, (2) the rate of emission reduction, and (3) the minimum level to which emissions are eventually reduced. It examined the resultant climate change, climate change impacts and economic implications using computer simulations. Avoided impacts, carbon taxes and GDP change increase throughout the 21st century in the models. AVOID-WS1 showed that in the absence of climate policy it is very likely that global mean temperatures would exceed 3 degrees and there are evens chances that the temperature would rise by 4 degrees relative to pre-industrial times. Scenarios that peak emissions in 2016 were more effective at constraining temperatures to below 3 degrees than those that peaked in 2030: one ‘2016' scenario achieved a probability of 45% of avoiding breaching of a 2 degree threshold. Scenarios peaking in 2030 were inconsistent with constraining temperatures to below 2 degrees. Correspondingly, scenarios that peak in 2030 are more effective at avoiding climate impacts than scenarios that peak in 2016, for all sectors that we studied. Hence the date at which emissions peak is more important than the rate of subsequent emissions reduction in determining the avoided impacts. Avoided impacts increase with time, being negligible in the 2030s, significant by the 2050s and large by the 2080s. Finally, the choice of GCM influences the magnitude of the avoided impacts strongly, so that the uncertainties in our estimates of avoided impacts for each scenario are larger than the difference between the scenarios. Our economic analysis is based on models which differ greatly in the assumptions that they make, but generally show that the date at which emissions peak is a stronger driver of induced GDP changes

Trace metal mobilization in an experimental carbon sequestration scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marcon, Virginia [University of Wyoming, Geology and Geophysics, Laramie, WY. 82070 (United States); Kaszuba, John [University of Wyoming, Geology and Geophysics, Laramie, WY. 82070 (United States); Univeristy of Wyoming, School of Energy Resources, Larmaie, WY. 82070 (United States)

2013-07-01

Mobilizing trace metals with injection of supercritical CO{sub 2} into deep saline aquifers is a concern for geologic carbon sequestration. Hydrothermal experiments investigate the release of harmful metals from two zones of a sequestration injection reservoir: at the cap-rock-reservoir boundary and deeper within the reservoir, away from the cap-rock. In both systems, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn behave in a similar manner, increasing in concentration with injection, but subsequently decreasing in concentration over time. SEM images and geochemical models indicate initial dissolution of minerals and precipitation of Ca-Mg-Fe carbonates, metal sulfides (i.e. Fe, As, Ag, and Co sulfides), and anhydrite in both systems. The results suggest that Ba, Cu, and Zn will not be contaminants of concern, but Pb, Fe, and As may require careful attention. (authors)

Quantifying Carbon Consequences of Recent Land Management and Disturbances in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems (GYE) by linking inventory data, remote sensing and carbon modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, F.; Huang, C.; Healey, S. P.; McCarter, J. B.; Garrard, C.; Zhu, Z.

2015-12-01

Natural disturbances and land management directly change C stored in biomass and soil pools, and can have indirect impacts on long-term C balance. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), located in Central Rocky Mountains of United States, is of different land ownerships within similar environmental settings, making it an ideal site to examine the impacts of management and disturbances on regional carbon dynamics. Recent advances in the remote sensing of vegetation condition and change, along with new techniques linking remote sensing with inventory records, have allowed investigations that are much more tightly constrained to actual landscape environment, instead of hypothetical or generalized conditions. These new capabilities are built into the Forest Carbon Management Framework (ForCaMF), which is being used by the National Forest System to not only model, but to monitor across very specific management units, the impact of different kinds of disturbance on carbon storage. In this study, we used the ForCaMF approach to evaluate carbon effects of natural disturbances (e.g. wildfire) and land management (e.g. harvests) in GYE National Parks, Wilderness Area and National Forests. As might be expected, wildfire has been the dominant disturbance factor in the carbon cycle of GYE's administratively protected areas since the mid-1980s, while harvests have dominated storage trends on the managed land in the region's National Forests. Moving beyond this monitoring result but maintaining the same fidelity to historical vegetation patterns, we are also able to simulate alternative disturbance scenarios to provide landscape-specific insights to forest managers. We can estimate likely carbon storage impacts in GYE protected areas, for example, if more active fire suppression had been pursued since the mid-1980s. Likewise, we can identify differences in current carbon storage on managed lands if high harvest rates during the same period had been moderated. We discuss

Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

2017-05-15

Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PAPR-Constrained Pareto-Optimal Waveform Design for OFDM-STAP Radar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sen, Satyabrata [ORNL

2014-01-01

We propose a peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) constrained Pareto-optimal waveform design approach for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) radar signal to detect a target using the space-time adaptive processing (STAP) technique. The use of an OFDM signal does not only increase the frequency diversity of our system, but also enables us to adaptively design the OFDM coefficients in order to further improve the system performance. First, we develop a parametric OFDM-STAP measurement model by considering the effects of signaldependent clutter and colored noise. Then, we observe that the resulting STAP-performance can be improved by maximizing the output signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) with respect to the signal parameters. However, in practical scenarios, the computation of output SINR depends on the estimated values of the spatial and temporal frequencies and target scattering responses. Therefore, we formulate a PAPR-constrained multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem to design the OFDM spectral parameters by simultaneously optimizing four objective functions: maximizing the output SINR, minimizing two separate Cramer-Rao bounds (CRBs) on the normalized spatial and temporal frequencies, and minimizing the trace of CRB matrix on the target scattering coefficients estimations. We present several numerical examples to demonstrate the achieved performance improvement due to the adaptive waveform design.

Energy implications of CO{sub 2} stabilization. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffert, M.I.; Caldeira, K.; Jain, A.K. [and others

1997-12-01

Analysis of carbon emissions paths stabilizing atmospheric CO{sub 2} in the 350--750 ppmv range reveals that implementing the UN Climate Convention will become increasingly difficult as the stabilization target decreases because of increasing dependence on carbon-free energy sources. Even the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario (IS92a) requires carbon-free primary power by 2050 equal to the humankind`s present fossil-fuel-based primary power consumption {approximately}10 TW (1 TW = 10{sup 12} W). The authors describe and critique the assumptions on which this projection is based, and extend the analysis to scenarios in which atmospheric CO{sub 2} stabilizes. For continued economic growth with CO{sub 2} stabilization, new, cost-effective, carbon-free technologies that can provide primary power of order 10 TW will be needed in the coming decades, and certainly by mid-century, in addition to improved economic productivity of primary energy.

Reducing carbon emissions through improved household energy efficiency in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekins, P.; Hargreaves, C.

2002-01-01

A number of schemes to increase household energy efficiency have operated in the UK over the last 5-10 years. This paper evaluates their effectiveness in terms of reducing household energy use, carbon emissions and fuel poverty. It then draws on the quantitative results of these schemes, and published plans for their continuation, to model an extended and expanded Household Energy Efficiency Scenario to 2020, using an integrated economy-energy-environment model of the UK. The results suggest that while such schemes can play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions from households, much more ambitious schemes than those currently implemented will be necessary to offset the underlying growth in these emissions. Finally, the results are compared with the UK government's own estimates, in its Climate Change Programme, of carbon emission reductions from such schemes to 2010. The paper concludes that the government's estimates are somewhat optimistic, and that it will need substantial new policy measures beyond those already announced if its carbon reduction targets in this area are to be met. (author)

Carbon footprint of telemedicine solutions--unexplored opportunity for reducing carbon emissions in the health sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmner, Asa; Ebi, Kristie L; Lazuardi, Lutfan; Nilsson, Maria

2014-01-01

The healthcare sector is a significant contributor to global carbon emissions, in part due to extensive travelling by patients and health workers. To evaluate the potential of telemedicine services based on videoconferencing technology to reduce travelling and thus carbon emissions in the healthcare sector. A life cycle inventory was performed to evaluate the carbon reduction potential of telemedicine activities beyond a reduction in travel related emissions. The study included two rehabilitation units at Umeå University Hospital in Sweden. Carbon emissions generated during telemedicine appointments were compared with care-as-usual scenarios. Upper and lower bound emissions scenarios were created based on different teleconferencing solutions and thresholds for when telemedicine becomes favorable were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to pinpoint the most important contributors to emissions for different set-ups and use cases. Replacing physical visits with telemedicine appointments resulted in a significant 40-70 times decrease in carbon emissions. Factors such as meeting duration, bandwidth and use rates influence emissions to various extents. According to the lower bound scenario, telemedicine becomes a greener choice at a distance of a few kilometers when the alternative is transport by car. Telemedicine is a potent carbon reduction strategy in the health sector. But to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation, a paradigm shift might be required where telemedicine is regarded as an essential component of ordinary health care activities and not only considered to be a service to the few who lack access to care due to geography, isolation or other constraints.

Anomaly mediated SUSY breaking scenarios in the light of cosmology and in the dark (matter)

CERN Document Server

Arbey, A; Tarhini, A

2011-01-01

Anomaly mediation is a popular and well motivated supersymmetry breaking scenario. Different possible detailed realisations of this set-up are studied and actively searched for at colliders. Apart from limits coming from flavour, low energy physics and direct collider searches, these models are usually constrained by the requirement of reproducing the observations on dark matter density in the universe. We reanalyse these bounds and in particular we focus on the dark matter bounds both considering the standard cosmological model and alternative cosmological scenarios. These scenarios do not change the observable cosmology but relic dark matter density bounds strongly depend on them. We consider few benchmark points excluded by standard cosmology dark matter bounds and suggest that loosening the dark matter constraints is necessary in order to avoid a too strong (cosmological) model dependence in the limits that are obtained for these models. We also discuss briefly the implications for phenomenology and in pa...

Constraining the location of rapid gamma-ray flares in the flat spectrum radio quasar 3C 273 [Constraining the location of rapid gamma-ray flares in the FSRQ 3C 273

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rani, B.; Lott, B.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Fuhrmann, L.; Zensus, J. A.

2013-01-01

Here, we present a γ-ray photon flux and spectral variability study of the flat-spectrum radio quasar 3C 273 over a rapid flaring activity period between September 2009 to April 2010. Five major flares were observed in the source during this period. The most rapid flare observed in the source has a flux doubling time of 1.1 hr. The rapid γ-ray flares allow us to constrain the location and size of the γ-ray emission region in the source. The γγ-opacity constrains the Doppler factor δ_γ ≥ 10 for the highest energy (15 GeV) photon observed by the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT). Causality arguments constrain the size of the emission region to 1.6 × 10"1"5 cm. The γ-ray spectra measured over this period show clear deviations from a simple power law with a break in the 1–2 GeV energy range. We discuss possible explanations for the origin of the γ-ray spectral breaks. Our study suggests that the γ-ray emission region in 3C 273 is located within the broad line region (< 1.6 pc). As a result, the spectral behavior and temporal characteristics of the individual flares indicate the presence of multiple shock scenarios at the base of the jet.

Constrained evolution in numerical relativity

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Matthew William

The strongest potential source of gravitational radiation for current and future detectors is the merger of binary black holes. Full numerical simulation of such mergers can provide realistic signal predictions and enhance the probability of detection. Numerical simulation of the Einstein equations, however, is fraught with difficulty. Stability even in static test cases of single black holes has proven elusive. Common to unstable simulations is the growth of constraint violations. This work examines the effect of controlling the growth of constraint violations by solving the constraints periodically during a simulation, an approach called constrained evolution. The effects of constrained evolution are contrasted with the results of unconstrained evolution, evolution where the constraints are not solved during the course of a simulation. Two different formulations of the Einstein equations are examined: the standard ADM formulation and the generalized Frittelli-Reula formulation. In most cases constrained evolution vastly improves the stability of a simulation at minimal computational cost when compared with unconstrained evolution. However, in the more demanding test cases examined, constrained evolution fails to produce simulations with long-term stability in spite of producing improvements in simulation lifetime when compared with unconstrained evolution. Constrained evolution is also examined in conjunction with a wide variety of promising numerical techniques, including mesh refinement and overlapping Cartesian and spherical computational grids. Constrained evolution in boosted black hole spacetimes is investigated using overlapping grids. Constrained evolution proves to be central to the host of innovations required in carrying out such intensive simulations.

A Constrained Algorithm Based NMFα for Image Representation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenxue Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF is a useful tool in learning a basic representation of image data. However, its performance and applicability in real scenarios are limited because of the lack of image information. In this paper, we propose a constrained matrix decomposition algorithm for image representation which contains parameters associated with the characteristics of image data sets. Particularly, we impose label information as additional hard constraints to the α-divergence-NMF unsupervised learning algorithm. The resulted algorithm is derived by using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT conditions as well as the projected gradient and its monotonic local convergence is proved by using auxiliary functions. In addition, we provide a method to select the parameters to our semisupervised matrix decomposition algorithm in the experiment. Compared with the state-of-the-art approaches, our method with the parameters has the best classification accuracy on three image data sets.

Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

2013-01-01

This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

Energy storage applications of activated carbons: supercapacitors and hydrogen storage

OpenAIRE

Sevilla Solís, Marta; Mokaya, Robert

2014-01-01

Porous carbons have several advantageous properties with respect to their use in energy applications that require constrained space such as in electrode materials for supercapacitors and as solid state hydrogen stores. The attractive properties of porous carbons include, ready abundance, chemical and thermal stability, ease of processability and low framework density. Activated carbons, which are perhaps the most explored class of porous carbons, have been traditionally employed as catalyst s...

Far-from-equilibrium bidirectional transport system with constrained entrances competing for pool of limited resources

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Atul Kumar; Sharma, Natasha; Gupta, Arvind Kumar

2018-02-01

Motivated by the wide occurrence of limited resources in many real-life systems, we investigate two-lane totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with constrained entrances under finite supply of particles. We analyze the system within the framework of mean-field theory and examine various complex phenomena, including phase separation, phase transition, and symmetry breaking. Based on the theoretical analysis, we analytically derive the phase boundaries for various symmetric as well as asymmetric phases. It has been observed that the symmetry-breaking phenomenon initiates even for very small number of particles in the system. The phases with broken symmetry originates as shock-low density phase under limited resources, which is in contrast to the scenario with infinite number of particles. As expected, the symmetry breaking continues to persist even for higher values of system particles. Seven stationary phases are observed, with three of them exhibiting symmetry-breaking phenomena. The critical values of a total number of system particles, beyond which various symmetrical and asymmetrical phases appear and disappear are identified. Theoretical outcomes are supported by extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the size-scaling effect and symmetry-breaking phenomenon on the simulation results have also been examined based on particle density histograms.

Calcium constrains plant control over forest ecosystem nitrogen cycling.

Science.gov (United States)

Groffman, Peter M; Fisk, Melany C

2011-11-01

Forest ecosystem nitrogen (N) cycling is a critical controller of the ability of forests to prevent the movement of reactive N to receiving waters and the atmosphere and to sequester elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Here we show that calcium (Ca) constrains the ability of northern hardwood forest trees to control the availability and loss of nitrogen. We evaluated soil N-cycling response to Ca additions in the presence and absence of plants and observed that when plants were present, Ca additions "tightened" the ecosystem N cycle, with decreases in inorganic N levels, potential net N mineralization rates, microbial biomass N content, and denitrification potential. In the absence of plants, Ca additions induced marked increases in nitrification (the key process controlling ecosystem N losses) and inorganic N levels. The observed "tightening" of the N cycle when Ca was added in the presence of plants suggests that the capacity of forests to absorb elevated levels of atmospheric N and CO2 is fundamentally constrained by base cations, which have been depleted in many areas of the globe by acid rain and forest harvesting.

Microgrid Design, Development and Demonstration - Final Report for Phase I and Phase II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bose, Sumit [GE Global Research Center, Niskayuna, NY (United States); Krok, Michael [GE Global Research Center, Niskayuna, NY (United States)

2011-02-08

This document constitutes GE’s final report for the Microgrid Design, Development and Demonstration program for DOE’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Award DE-FC02-05CH11349. It contains the final report for Phase I in Appendix I, and the results the work performed in Phase II. The program goal was to develop and demonstrate a Microgrid Energy Management (MEM) framework for a broad set of Microgrid applications that provides unified controls, protection, and energy management. This project contributed to the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Renewable and Distributed Systems Integration Program goals by developing a fully automated power delivery microgrid network that: - Reduces carbon emissions and emissions of other air pollutants through increased use of optimally dispatched renewable energy, - Increases asset use through integration of distributed systems, - Enhances reliability, security, and resiliency from microgrid applications in critical infrastructure protection, constrained areas of the electric grid, etc. - Improves system efficiency with on-site, distributed generation and improved economic efficiency through demand-side management.

Yucca Mountain Area Saturated Zone Dissolved Organic Carbon Isotopic Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, James; Decker, David; Patterson, Gary; Peterman, Zell; Mihevc, Todd; Larsen, Jessica; Hershey, Ronald

2007-01-01

groundwater ages. The DIC calculated groundwater ages were compared with DOC calculated groundwater ages and both of these ages were compared to travel times developed in ground-water flow and transport models. If nuclear waste is stored in Yucca Mountain, the saturated zone is the final barrier against the release of radionuclides to the environment. The most recent rendition of the TSPA takes little credit for the presence of the saturated zone and is a testament to the inadequate understanding of this important barrier. If radionuclides reach the saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain, then there is a travel time before they would leave the Yucca Mountain area and flow down gradient to the Amargosa Valley area. Knowing how long it takes groundwater in the saturated zone to flow from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient areas is critical information for potential radionuclide transport. Radionuclide transport in groundwater may be the quickest pathway for radionuclides in the proposed Yucca Mountain repository to reach land surface by way of groundwater pumped in Amargosa Valley. An alternative approach to ground-water flow and transport models to determine the travel time of radionuclides from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient areas in the saturated zone is by carbon-14 dating of both inorganic and organic carbon dissolved in the groundwater. A standard method of determining ground-water ages is to measure the carbon-13 and carbon-14 of DIC in the groundwater and then correct the measured carbon-14 along a flow path for geochemical reactions that involve carbon containing phases. These geochemical reactions are constrained by carbon-13 and isotopic fractionations. Without correcting for geochemical reactions, the ground-water ages calculated from only the differences in carbon-14 measured along a flow path (assuming the decrease in carbon-14 is due strictly to radioactive decay) could be tens of thousands of years too old. The computer program NETPATH, developed by

Modelling carbon and water exchange of a grazed pasture in New Zealand constrained by eddy covariance measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Rutledge, Susanna; Kuijper, Isoude A; Mudge, Paul L; Puche, Nicolas; Wall, Aaron M; Roach, Chris G; Schipper, Louis A; Campbell, David I

2015-04-15

We used two years of eddy covariance (EC) measurements collected over an intensively grazed dairy pasture to better understand the key drivers of changes in soil organic carbon stocks. Analysing grazing systems with EC measurements poses significant challenges as the respiration from grazing animals can result in large short-term CO2 fluxes. As paddocks are grazed only periodically, EC observations derive from a mosaic of paddocks with very different exchange rates. This violates the assumptions implicit in the use of EC methodology. To test whether these challenges could be overcome, and to develop a tool for wider scenario testing, we compared EC measurements with simulation runs with the detailed ecosystem model CenW 4.1. Simulations were run separately for 26 paddocks around the EC tower and coupled to a footprint analysis to estimate net fluxes at the EC tower. Overall, we obtained good agreement between modelled and measured fluxes, especially for the comparison of evapotranspiration rates, with model efficiency of 0.96 for weekly averaged values of the validation data. For net ecosystem productivity (NEP) comparisons, observations were omitted when cattle grazed the paddocks immediately around the tower. With those points omitted, model efficiencies for weekly averaged values of the validation data were 0.78, 0.67 and 0.54 for daytime, night-time and 24-hour NEP, respectively. While not included for model parameterisation, simulated gross primary production also agreed closely with values inferred from eddy covariance measurements (model efficiency of 0.84 for weekly averages). The study confirmed that CenW simulations could adequately model carbon and water exchange in grazed pastures. It highlighted the critical role of animal respiration for net CO2 fluxes, and showed that EC studies of grazed pastures need to consider the best approach of accounting for this important flux to avoid unbalanced accounting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Few Expanding Integrable Models, Hamiltonian Structures and Constrained Flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yufeng

2011-01-01

Two kinds of higher-dimensional Lie algebras and their loop algebras are introduced, for which a few expanding integrable models including the coupling integrable couplings of the Broer-Kaup (BK) hierarchy and the dispersive long wave (DLW) hierarchy as well as the TB hierarchy are obtained. From the reductions of the coupling integrable couplings, the corresponding coupled integrable couplings of the BK equation, the DLW equation, and the TB equation are obtained, respectively. Especially, the coupling integrable coupling of the TB equation reduces to a few integrable couplings of the well-known mKdV equation. The Hamiltonian structures of the coupling integrable couplings of the three kinds of soliton hierarchies are worked out, respectively, by employing the variational identity. Finally, we decompose the BK hierarchy of evolution equations into x-constrained flows and t n -constrained flows whose adjoint representations and the Lax pairs are given. (general)

Constrained sintering of an air-plasma-sprayed thermal barrier coating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cocks, A.C.F.; Fleck, N.A.

2010-01-01

A micromechanical model is presented for the constrained sintering of an air-plasma-sprayed, thermal barrier coating upon a thick superalloy substrate. The coating comprises random splats with intervening penny-shaped cracks. The crack faces make contact at asperities, which progressively sinter in-service by interfacial diffusion, accommodated by bulk creep. Diffusion is driven by the reduction in interfacial energy at the developing contacts and by the local asperity contact stress. At elevated operating temperature, both sintering and creep strains accumulate within the plane of the coating. The sensitivities of sintering rate and microstructure evolution rate to the kinetic parameters and thermodynamic driving forces are explored. It is demonstrated that the sintering response is governed by three independent timescales, as dictated by the material and geometric properties of the coating. Finally, the role of substrate constraint is assessed by comparing the rate of constrained sintering with that for free sintering.

77 FR 21527 - Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon-Quality Steel Plate Products From the Republic of Korea: Final...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-10

... from the Republic of Korea. The review covers one manufacturer/ exporter. The period of review is...-Quality Steel Plate Products From the Republic of Korea: Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative... duty order on certain cut-to-length carbon-quality steel plate products (CTL plate) from the Republic...

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century.

Science.gov (United States)

Boisvenue, Céline; Running, Steven W

2010-07-01

Climate change has altered the environment in which forests grow, and climate change models predict more severe alterations to come. Forests have already responded to these changes, and the future temperature and precipitation scenarios are of foremost concern, especially in the mountainous western United States, where forests occur in the dry environments that interface with grasslands. The objective of this study was to understand the trade-offs between temperature and water controls on these forested sites in the context of available climate projections. Three temperature and precipitation scenarios from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs ranging in precipitation levels were input to the process model Biome-BGC for key forested sites in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains. Despite the omission of natural and human-caused disturbances in our simulations, our results show consequential effects from these conservative future temperature and precipitation scenarios. According to these projections, if future precipitation and temperatures are similar to or drier than the dry scenario depicted here, high-elevation forests on both the drier and wetter sites, which have in the absence of disturbance accumulated carbon, will reduce their carbon accumulation. Under the marginally drier climate projections, most forests became carbon sources by the end of the simulation horizon (2089). Under all three scenarios, growing season lengthened, the number of days with snow on the ground decreased, peak snow occurred earlier, and water stress increased through the projection horizon (1950-2089) for all sites, which represent the temperature and precipitation spectrum of forests in this region. The quantity, form, and timing of precipitation ultimately drive the carbon accumulation trajectory of forests in this region.

Forest managment options for sequestering carbon in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masera, O.R.; Bellon, M.R.; Segura, G.

1995-01-01

This paper identifies and examines economic response options to avoid carbon emissions and increase carbon sequestration in Mexican forests. A ''Policy'' scenario covering the years 2000, 2010 and 2030 and a ''Technical Potential'' scenario (year 2030) are developed to examine the potential carbon sequestration and costs of each response option. Benefit-cost analyses for three case studies, including management of a pulpwood plantation, a native temperate forest and a native tropical evergreen forest are presented and discussed. The study suggests that a large potential for reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sequestration exists in Mexican forests. However, the achievement of this potential will require important reforms to the current institutional setting of the forest sector. The management of native temperate and tropical forests offers the most promising alternatives for carbon sequestration. The cost effectiveness of commercial plantations critically depends on very high site productivity. Restoration of degraded forest lands; particularly through the establishment of energy plantations, also shows a large carbon sequestration potential. (Author)

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Economic effects of a carbon tax in Belgium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bossier, F.; De Rous, R.

1992-01-01

This paper proposes to evaluate the consequences of the introduction of a carbon tax for the Belgian economy. To this end, two scenarios are studied. The first scenario introduces a carbon tax of about 23.5 ecus per ton of CO 2 emitted and the second scenario combines the tax with incentives to energy savings investments. The results suggest that the tax, alone, is not sufficient to meet the international requirements as far as a stabilization of CO 2 emissions is required. It is therefore suggested that a policy-mix of pure taxation measures with various forms of subsidies to investments should be achieved. (author)

Towards a paradigm shift in the modeling of soil organic carbon decomposition for earth system models

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yujie

Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pools and contain approximately 2200 Pg of carbon. Thus, the dynamics of soil carbon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Earth System Models are used to project future interactions between terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate. However, these models often predict a wide range of soil carbon responses and their formulations have lagged behind recent soil science advances, omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms. In contrast, recent mechanistically-based biogeochemical models that explicitly account for microbial biomass pools and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition produce notably different results and provide a closer match to recent observations. However, a systematic evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the microbial models and how they differ from empirical, first-order formulations in soil decomposition models for soil organic carbon is still needed. This dissertation consists of a series of model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and identifies dominant decomposition processes in determining soil organic carbon dynamics. Poorly constrained processes or parameters that require more experimental data integration are also identified. This dissertation also demonstrates the critical role of microbial life-history traits (e.g. microbial dormancy) in the modeling of microbial activity in soil organic matter decomposition models. Finally, this study surveys and synthesizes a number of recently published microbial models and provides suggestions for future microbial model developments.

Constrained physical therapist practice: an ethical case analysis of recommending discharge placement from the acute care setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Nalette, Ernest

2010-06-01

Constrained practice is routinely encountered by physical therapists and may limit the physical therapist's primary moral responsibility-which is to help the patient to become well again. Ethical practice under such conditions requires a certain moral character of the practitioner. The purposes of this article are: (1) to provide an ethical analysis of a typical patient case of constrained clinical practice, (2) to discuss the moral implications of constrained clinical practice, and (3) to identify key moral principles and virtues fostering ethical physical therapist practice. The case represents a common scenario of discharge planning in acute care health facilities in the northeastern United States. An applied ethics approach was used for case analysis. The decision following analysis of the dilemma was to provide the needed care to the patient as required by compassion, professional ethical standards, and organizational mission. Constrained clinical practice creates a moral dilemma for physical therapists. Being responsive to the patient's needs moves the physical therapist's practice toward the professional ideal of helping vulnerable patients become well again. Meeting the patient's needs is a professional requirement of the physical therapist as moral agent. Acting otherwise requires an alternative position be ethically justified based on systematic analysis of a particular case. Skepticism of status quo practices is required to modify conventional individual, organizational, and societal practices toward meeting the patient's best interest.

Theoretical assessment of the maximum obtainable power in wireless power transfer constrained by human body exposure limits in a typical room scenario.