WorldWideScience

Sample records for caraibes ensemble deux

  1. Folie à deux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2009-01-01

    Folie à deux or induced psychotic disorder is a rare psychiatric illness. The essential feature is a psychotic disorder shared by two emotionally close persons, usually close relatives. The disorder is characterized by a primary psychotic person who gradually imposes her delusional beliefs...... on the other person. The disorder usually resolves in the more passive person when the two are separated (e.g. by admittance of the primary psychotic person). This case report describes a shared delusional belief between two friends. Udgivelsesdato: 2009-Dec...

  2. Deux voyages d’hiver

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Barilier

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available La relation entre la vie et l’œuvre, chez un artiste, n’est jamais une simple relation de cause à effet. L’on peut trouver, à l’origine du Voyage d’hiver de Schubert, comme à celle de la Rhapsodie pour alto de Brahms (dont les paroles, tirées d’un poème de Goethe, racontent elles aussi un voyage hivernal, des douleurs amoureuses. Mais ces deux œuvres transcendent les événements biographiques dont elles sont issues. échappant au narcissisme du moi romantique, elles traduisent deux expériences du temps, cyclique ou progressif, racontent deux voyages spirituels. La douleur d’exister y devient pure présence de la vie, et récit purifié.For an artist, the link between life and work is never a simple cause-effect relationship. The loving pain can be considered as the source of Schubert's Winterreise and of the Brahms Alto Rhapsody as well (the latter being based also upon a poem by Goethe, which tells also a winter journey. But these works transcend the life events from which they arise. Beyond the narcissism of the romantic self, they reflect two experiences of time, cyclical or progressive, and they tell two spiritual journeys. The pain of existence becomes a pure presence of life, and a purified story.

  3. Bielinsky, hommage en deux temps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Jeanne

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Un homme allongé par terre devant un distributeur de billet – victime d’un braquage ? On ne le saura même pas, il se relève, il vient d’avoir une crise d’épilepsie. Ce premier plan d’El Aura (2006, second et dernier film de Fabián Bielinsky, donne le ton d’une filmographie à jamais cantonnée à deux longs-métrages : Bielinsky meurt en juin 2006 d’un infarctus, à 47 ans, après 15 ans de travail dans l’ombre et un succès tardif, mais rapide et international. Las Nueve Reinas a beau sortir en 2...

  4. Deux lectures critiques d'Alf Ross

    OpenAIRE

    Millard, Eric

    2000-01-01

    Suivi de deux textes de Kelsen (Une théorie réaliste et la Théorie pure du droit ; notice HAL : http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00126308) et Hart (Sur le réalisme scandinave ; notice HAL : http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00126310); Présentation de deux textes d'Hans Kelsen et d'HLA Hart critiquant l'ouvrage On law and Justice de Ross

  5. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

  6. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  7. [Folie á deux between two unrelated individuals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, Amlan Kusum; Praharaj, Samir Kumar; Sarkar, Sukanto; Dotivala, Kainaz N; Chabungbam, Gobin

    2009-01-01

    Folie à deux is a rare condition characterized by transmission of delusions from a primary patient to another individual, usually a blood relative or spouse, while living in relative isolation. We report a case of folie à deux, which resembled folie communiquée, in a 37-year-old man that acquired it from an older woman (primary patient). Although not related by blood, the patient was emotionally very close to the woman and they shared common features, including grandiose delusions about the supernatural powers of the primary patient and persecutory delusions concerning office colleagues, as the woman had, and then neighbors, fellow villagers, and even family members. Behavioral changes were observed in the secondary patient as he started wearing strange clothing and peculiar ornaments, and neglected his personal hygiene. He also started following the same rituals and routines as the primary patient, and changed his religious practices, which he had followed devoutly since adolescence. He began seeking her opinion concerning almost all decisions he had to make, including personal and professional matters. Yet, unlike the usual clinical picture, they did not live in social isolation; rather, they lived in an apartment in a well-known residential area of the city and he regularly worked at his office until the late stage of illness. Premorbidly, there were no features suggestive of dependency or low intelligence in the secondary case. After separation from the primary case, improvement was observed about 7 weeks after beginning risperidone treatment (6 mg/day).

  8. " Les deux théâtres "

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    International audience; L'article développe l'hypothèse, fondée d'une part sur l'histoire du théâtre du Moyen-Age et de la Renaissance, d'autre part sur une étude historique et anthropologique des théâtres dits "non professionnels", selon laquelle la vie théâtrale s'est organisée en Europe en deux grandes branches, autonomes et complémentaires, le théâtre amateur n'étant pas une forme dégradée du théâtre professionnel, mais un autre mode d'exercice de la fonction dramatique.

  9. Sacroillite tuberculeuse: à propos de deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ismaël; Zabsonré, Joëlle Tiendrébéogo; Kambou, Bénilde Marie Ange Tiemtoré; Sondo, Apoline Kongnimissom; Sagna, Yempabou; Ouédraogo, Dieu-Donné

    2016-01-01

    La sacroiliite tuberculeuse est rare et de diagnostic difficile. Les auteurs rapportent deux cas. Il s'agissait dans le premier cas d'une patiente de 40 ans ayant une infection à VIH ; le diagnostic a été histologique après une biopsie chirurgicale. Le second cas a concerné un patient de 25 ans vivant en milieu carcéral chez qui le diagnostic a été établi sur la base des arguments cliniques, biologiques, radiologiques et l'efficacité du traitement ; l'intradermoréaction à la tuberculine était phlycténulaire. Le scanner a été indispensable au diagnostic lésionnel en montrant une érosion des berges et des abcès des parties molles. Le traitement a été médical et a fait appel aux antituberculeux. PMID:28292032

  10. Ensembl 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Girón, Carlos García; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.; Janacek, Sophie H.; Juettemann, Thomas; Keenan, Stephen; Laird, Matthew R.; Lavidas, Ilias; Maurel, Thomas; McLaren, William; Moore, Benjamin; Murphy, Daniel N.; Nag, Rishi; Newman, Victoria; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Parker, Anne; Patricio, Mateus; Riat, Harpreet Singh; Sheppard, Daniel; Sparrow, Helen; Taylor, Kieron; Thormann, Anja; Vullo, Alessandro; Walts, Brandon; Wilder, Steven P.; Zadissa, Amonida; Kostadima, Myrto; Martin, Fergal J.; Muffato, Matthieu; Perry, Emily; Ruffier, Magali; Staines, Daniel M.; Trevanion, Stephen J.; Cunningham, Fiona; Yates, Andrew; Zerbino, Daniel R.; Flicek, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access methods ensure uniform data analysis and distribution for all supported species. Together, these provide a comprehensive solution for large-scale and targeted genomics applications alike. Among many other developments over the past year, we have improved our resources for gene regulation and comparative genomics, and added CRISPR/Cas9 target sites. We released new browser functionality and tools, including improved filtering and prioritization of genome variation, Manhattan plot visualization for linkage disequilibrium and eQTL data, and an ontology search for phenotypes, traits and disease. We have also enhanced data discovery and access with a track hub registry and a selection of new REST end points. All Ensembl data are freely released to the scientific community and our source code is available via the open source Apache 2.0 license. PMID:27899575

  11. Report made on behalf of the commission of foreign affairs about the law project, adopted by the Senate, authorizing the ratification of the agreement between the French Republic, the European Atomic Energy Community and the International Atomic Energy Agency relative to the enforcement of warranties in the framework of the treaty of nuclear weapons prohibition in South America and the Caribbeans area (two protocols together); Rapport fait au nom de la commission des affaires etrangeres sur le projet de loi, adopte par le senat, autorisant la ratification de l'accord entre la Republique francaise, la Communaute europeenne de l'energie atomique et l'Agence internationale de l'energie atomique relatif a l'application de garanties dans le cadre du traite visant l'interdiction des armes nucleaires en Amerique latine et dans les Caraibes (ensemble deux protocoles)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This report comments the reasons of the signature of the agreement between France, EURATOM and the IAEA for the reinforcement of IAEA's non-proliferation controls in the South America and Caribbean areas (law project no. 1329). The ratification of this agreement will have only few concrete consequences but will contribute to the promotion of non-proliferation and to the enforcement of warranties in the framework of the treaty of interdiction of nuclear weapons in South America and in the Caribbean area (signed in Vienna, Austria, on March 21, 2000). The commission of foreign affairs adopted this law project on March 3, 2004. (J.S.)

  12. Law project (no. 1329) adopted by the Senate and authorizing the ratification of the agreement between the French Republic, the European Atomic Energy Community and the International Atomic Energy Agency relative to the enforcement of warranties in the framework of the treaty of nuclear weapons prohibition in South America and the Caribbeans area (two protocols together); Projet de loi (no. 1329) adopte par le Senat autorisant la ratification de l'accord entre la Republique francaise, la Communaute europeenne de l'energie atomique et l'Agence internationale de l'energie atomique relatif a l'application de garanties dans le cadre du traite visant l'interdiction des armes nucleraires en Amerique latine et dans les Caraibes (ensemble deux protocoles)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-01-01

    The French Senate adopted on January 6, 2004 the project of law which authorizes the ratification of the agreement between France, the European atomic energy community and the IAEA about the enforcement of warranties in the framework of the treaty of interdiction of nuclear weapons in South America and in the Caribbean area signed in Vienna (Austria) on March 21, 2000. The text of this treaty is attached to this law. (J.S.)

  13. Composed ensembles of random unitary ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Pozniak, M; Kus, M; Pozniak, Marcin; Zyczkowski, Karol; Kus, Marek

    1997-01-01

    Composed ensembles of random unitary matrices are defined via products of matrices, each pertaining to a given canonical circular ensemble of Dyson. We investigate statistical properties of spectra of some composed ensembles and demonstrate their physical relevance. We discuss also the methods of generating random matrices distributed according to invariant Haar measure on the orthogonal and unitary group.

  14. Exploring ensemble visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phadke, Madhura N.; Pinto, Lifford; Alabi, Oluwafemi; Harter, Jonathan; Taylor, Russell M., II; Wu, Xunlei; Petersen, Hannah; Bass, Steffen A.; Healey, Christopher G.

    2012-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets. Each dataset, or member, of an ensemble is normally large, multidimensional, and spatio-temporal. Ensembles are used extensively by scientists and mathematicians, for example, by executing a simulation repeatedly with slightly different input parameters and saving the results in an ensemble to see how parameter choices affect the simulation. To draw inferences from an ensemble, scientists need to compare data both within and between ensemble members. We propose two techniques to support ensemble exploration and comparison: a pairwise sequential animation method that visualizes locally neighboring members simultaneously, and a screen door tinting method that visualizes subsets of members using screen space subdivision. We demonstrate the capabilities of both techniques, first using synthetic data, then with simulation data of heavy ion collisions in high-energy physics. Results show that both techniques are capable of supporting meaningful comparisons of ensemble data.

  15. Intrication de deux atomes en utilisant le blocage de Rydberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaëtan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Considérons un système quantique constitué de deux sous-systèmes : on dit qu'il est dans un état intriqué s'il existe des corrélations quantiques entre les états de ces derniers. La compréhension et la mise en œuvre d'états intriqués ont de nombreuses applications (métrologie quantique, étude des systèmes fortement corrélés, traitement quantique de l'information, etc.) et constituent le contexte général de ce travail de thèse. Plus en détail, nous démontrons la réalisation d'un état intriqué de deux atomes neutres piégés indépendamment. Pour cela, nous exploitons le phénomène de blocage de Rydberg : lorsqu'on essaie d'exciter simultanément deux atomes séparés de quelques micromètres vers un état de Rydberg donné, la forte interaction entre atomes de Rydberg peut empêcher cette excitation simultanée. Dans ce cas, seul un des deux atomes est excité et l'on génère ainsi des corrélations quantiques entre les états des deux atomes, c'est-à-dire de l'intrication. Dans notre expérience, deux atomes de 87Rb dans l'état fondamental 5S1/2 sont piégés chacun dans une pince optique microscopique, à une distance relative de 4 micromètres. En réalisant des transitions entre l'état 5S1/2 et l'état de Rydberg 58D3/2 par des transitions à deux photons, nous obtenons un état intriqué des deux atomes dans les sous-niveaux |5S1/2, f = 1, mf = 1> et |5S1/2, f = 2, mf = 2>. Afin de quantifier l'intrication, nous mesurons la fidélité par rapport à l'état-cible en réalisant des transitions Raman entre ces deux sous-niveaux. La fidélité des paires d'atomes présentes à la fin de l'expérience est supérieure à la valeur seuil de 0,5, ce qui prouve la création d'un état intriqué.

  16. Delusional parasitosis with folie à deux: A case series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawant, Neena Sanjiv; Vispute, Chetan Dilip

    2015-01-01

    Delusional parasitosis (DP) is characterized by single hypochondriacal delusion in which patient feels he/she is infested with insects. The authors present a case series of three cases of DP with shared psychotic disorder (folie à deux) in which one individual developed a delusional belief in the context of a close relationship with another person or people who already had an established delusional idea. All patients of DP were assessed in the outpatient department of Psychiatry of a tertiary care hospital. Diagnosis of DP was made on detail clinical history and supporting clinical findings. All our primary cases had DP and the accompanying relatives of our patients had folie à deux as they shared the belief of parasite infestation which was firm and persisted despite evidence to the contrary. The primary cases of delusional parasitosis responded well to oral risperidone. The intensity of the belief in the secondary person also reduced with improvement in the symptoms of the patients. PMID:26257494

  17. Making Tree Ensembles Interpretable

    OpenAIRE

    Hara, Satoshi; Hayashi, Kohei

    2016-01-01

    Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a standard way, we approximate it by a simpler model that is interpretable for human. To obtain the simpler model, we derive the EM algorithm minimizing the KL divergence from the ...

  18. Deux approches du risque d'inondation en France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno LEDOUX

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available En France, les sources d’informations centralisées sur les risques naturels sont rares. Pourtant, une politique de prévention engagée par l’État nécessite de disposer d’une information à l’échelle nationale, d’évaluer les enjeux et de mobiliser les acteurs. Deux sources d’informations sont décrites et exploitées, qui permettent, par une représentation cartographique nationale, d’amorcer analyses et débats.

  19. Les Sapotaceae de Madagascar, deux nouvelles espèces du genre Mimusops L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Randrianaivo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Members of the family Sapotaceae, occurring in Madagascar’s various forest types, are mostly known as nanto in local dialects; some of their cultural and social values are described here. While the circumscription of Mimusops is well-defined, the delimitation of species within the genus remains unclear and their identification is often difficult. A study of herbarium specimens assigned to this genus deposited in key herbaria, two in Madagascar (TAN and TEF and three outside the country (G, MO and P, revealed two new species: Mimusops boeniensis Randrianaivo sp. nov. and Mimusops masoalensis Randrianaivo sp. nov. This brings the number of Mimusops species recognized in Madagascar to 16. Both of these newly recognized species are illustrated, and detailed information is provided concerning their morphology and the differences between them and other members in the genus, as well as on their ecology and distribution. RÉSUMÉLes Sapotaceae de Madagascar sont rencontrés dans tous les types de forêt de l’île et sont connus sous un même nom vernaculaire sur l’ensemble du territoire, nanto. Les nanto sont importants dans la Société malgache et leur valeur culturelle est décrite ici. La circonscription taxinomique de Mimusops est bien définie. En revanche, la délimitation entre les différentes espèces au sein du genre reste confuse et l’identification des récoltes est souvent difficile. L’étude des spécimens d’herbier connus dans les herbiers nationaux (TAN et TEF et internationaux (G, MO et P nous a néanmoins permis de reconnaitre et de décrire deux nouvelles espèces : Mimusops boeniensis Randrianaivo sp. nov. et Mimusops masoalensis Randrianaivo sp. nov., le nombre d’espèces malgaches de Mimusops passant ainsi de 14 à 16. Cet article s’attache ensuite à fournir une description morphologique détaillée et illustrée de ces deux espèces ainsi que des renseignements sur leur distribution et leur écologie. Les diff

  20. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  1. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  2. Du Lac de Geneve au Lac Baikal: deux metropoles en construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Mettan

    2006-08-01

    'Annemasse dans un ensemble qui atteindrait environ un million d'habitants au total. Le lac Leman (Lac de Geneve faisant office de point commun entre ces villes, la region prendrait le nom de metropole lemanique ou de Bassin lemanique. Ce qui a pour avantage de ne pas mettre Geneve trop en evidence et de ne pas vexer les autres villes dont les noms seraient menaces de disparaitre au profit de Geneve.Pour reussir, ce rapprochement doit respecter quelques principes fondamentaux :1 developper les infrastructures communes et les moyens de communication entre les villes partenaires : la gestion de l''aeroport international de Geneve a ainsi ete ouvert a la France et aux representants de Lausanne. On projette de construire une troisieme voie pour l'autoroute et la ligne de chemin de fer qui relie Geneve a Lausanne. Sur le plan politique, les deputes des deux provin2ces militent dans la meme direction.2 respecter les identites traditionnelles et developper une identite commune autour d'un projet rassembleur. Le projet de fusion a echoue parce qu'il niait l'histoire et les traditions propres a chaque ville. Sans territoire et de tradition protestante calviniste, Geneve est universitaire, internationale, tres urbaine. Lausanne est lutherienne et plus enracinee dans une region agricole et viticole. La culture et l'economie, et surtout la fiscalite ne sont pas les memes. Cela reconnu, il convient malgre tout de developper des projets communs, qui rassemblent les habitants des deux regions et puissent peu a peu forger l'idee d'un destin commun. Pour Geneve et Lausanne, ce pourrait etre la vocation internationale, Geneve etant connue pour ses organisations internationales liees et le siege europeen de l'ONU tandis que Lausanne est devenue la capitale internationale du sport avec le CIO (Comite international olympique et federations sportives. Un deuxieme axe est de profiler l'ensemble de la metropole comme une region du savoir, avec ses universites, ses sieges d'entreprises multinationales et

  3. Extended Ensemble Monte Carlo

    OpenAIRE

    Iba, Yukito

    2000-01-01

    ``Extended Ensemble Monte Carlo''is a generic term that indicates a set of algorithms which are now popular in a variety of fields in physics and statistical information processing. Exchange Monte Carlo (Metropolis-Coupled Chain, Parallel Tempering), Simulated Tempering (Expanded Ensemble Monte Carlo), and Multicanonical Monte Carlo (Adaptive Umbrella Sampling) are typical members of this family. Here we give a cross-disciplinary survey of these algorithms with special emphasis on the great f...

  4. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  5. Die dramatiese discours in Pas de deux van Hugo Claus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vaughan

    1990-05-01

    Full Text Available Drama is action, verbal drama is speech action, and the dramatic text is subject to a similar set of rules as that governing the extra-literary communication situation. Dramatic irony, the very essence of drama itself, is generated by a dual, mutually interactive process of communication, whereby the audience is “written into” the text in a way distinguishing it from other literary genres, and by a systematic flouting of the rules governing communication. Pas de deux demonstrates the peculiar duality of dramatic discourse by its complex exploitation of the breakdown/non-breakdown of Grice’s Co-operative Principle-. communication/non-communication becomes reversible and, therefore, mutually constitutive concepts “releasing meaning” and conveying the “ideology” of this play.

  6. Le facteur temps ne sonne jamais deux fois

    CERN Document Server

    Klein, Etienne

    2009-01-01

    Chose déroutante, décidément, que le temps. Nous en parlons comme d'une notion familière, évidente, voire domestique, "gérable". Nous parlons même d'un "temps réel" pour évoquer l'instantanéité, c'est-à-dire le temps sur lequel nous n'avons aucune prise. Les physiciens, eux, l'ont couplé à l'espace, en ont fait une variable mathématique, abstraite, qu'ils intègrent dans des théories audacieuses, spectaculaires, si complexes qu'elles sont difficiles à traduire en langage courant. Certains disent même avoir identifié le moteur du temps. Quant aux philosophes, ils ne cessent depuis plus de deux millénaires de soumettre le temps au questionnement : est-il une sorte d'entité primitive, originaire, qui ne dériverait que d'elle-même? Ou procéderait-il au contraire d'une ou plusieurs autres entités, plus fondamentales: la relation de cause à effet, par exemple? Le temps s'écoule-t-il de lui-même ou a-t-il besoin des événements qui s'y déroulent pour passer? S'apparente-t-il au devenir,...

  7. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...

  8. Protective Garment Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, M. E.

    1982-01-01

    Protective garment ensemble with internally-mounted environmental- control unit contains its own air supply. Alternatively, a remote-environmental control unit or an air line is attached at the umbilical quick disconnect. Unit uses liquid air that is vaporized to provide both breathing air and cooling. Totally enclosed garment protects against toxic substances.

  9. Shared Psychotic Disorder (Folie à Deux in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buket Cinemre

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Shared psychotic disorder or folie à deux is a rare and relatively unknown syndrome. Large case series are needed to find out and clarify the etiological factors and the phenomenology of shared psychotic disorder by comparing the cases from different society and cultures. In this study, we reviewed all reported cases of shared psychotic disorder that had been published or presented in Turkey since 1962. To reach this aim, we have searched Pubmed/Medline, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, Ulakbim Turkish Medical Index, Turkish Psychiatric Index databases for published records originating from Turkey. We have also manually searched poster abstract books of congresses held in Turkey between 1962 and 2009. All cases eligible for inclusion into this study have been evaluated one by one and grouped as primary or secondary cases. The features of these cases were investigated for a number of variables including age, sex, educational level, occupation, the presence of shared delusion and hallucinations, diagnosis, management, onset of illness, family history, IQ, social isolation, the nature of the relationship and classification system used for diagnosis. The results have showed that the syndrome is more frequently observed among women, within same family members and between sisters. Social isolation was the most common risk factor in these patients and most patients shared hallucinations with their partners along with their delusions. Several secondary cases required antipsychotic drugs for the treatment of their symptoms. Though these features were inline with literature findings, the present findings from Turkish population were different from previous studies with regards to the presence of olfactory hallucinations, absence of grandiose delusions and the number of affected family members. The results mostly supported the challenges and discussions in western countries. To understand this most pathological form of interpersonal relationships

  10. Deux maisons, égales en dignité

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Kohler

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Les populations traditionnelles de l’Amazonie brésilienne sont soumises, de la part des organes institutionnels et de l’opinion publique, à une double injonction : préserver la forêt tout en se pliant à des expériences de développement durable destinées à améliorer leurs conditions d’existence et leur formation. Deux études concomitantes menées en Amapá, l’une à Vila Velha do Cassiporé, l’autre à Vila de São Francisco do Iratapuru, nous permettent de dégager quelques principes conditionnant le succès ou l’échec des projets implantés. Ces principes concernent essentiellement la cohésion communautaire, et la disponibilité d’une main d’œuvre faiblement qualifiée, permettant ainsi le maintien d’activités qui pour être traditionnelles n’en sont pas moins pénibles.The traditional populations of the Brazilian Amazon are subject to a double bind by institutional bodies and public opinion: these populations must preserve the forest while they act as subjects for sustainable development experiments intended to improve their living conditions and formal educational level. Two studies conducted in the State of Amapá, one in Vila Velha do Cassiporé, the other in Vila de São Francisco do Iratapuru; provide us with a few principles influencing the success or failure of these projects. These principles mainly concern community cohesion and the availability of an under-skilled workforce, which thus enable these populations to maintain activities that albeit traditional are nonetheless unpleasant.

  11. Effective Visualization of Temporal Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lihua; Healey, Christopher G; Bass, Steffen A

    2016-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets, called members, built from a series of runs of a simulation or an experiment. Ensembles are large, temporal, multidimensional, and multivariate, making them difficult to analyze. Another important challenge is visualizing ensembles that vary both in space and time. Initial visualization techniques displayed ensembles with a small number of members, or presented an overview of an entire ensemble, but without potentially important details. Recently, researchers have suggested combining these two directions, allowing users to choose subsets of members to visualization. This manual selection process places the burden on the user to identify which members to explore. We first introduce a static ensemble visualization system that automatically helps users locate interesting subsets of members to visualize. We next extend the system to support analysis and visualization of temporal ensembles. We employ 3D shape comparison, cluster tree visualization, and glyph based visualization to represent different levels of detail within an ensemble. This strategy is used to provide two approaches for temporal ensemble analysis: (1) segment based ensemble analysis, to capture important shape transition time-steps, clusters groups of similar members, and identify common shape changes over time across multiple members; and (2) time-step based ensemble analysis, which assumes ensemble members are aligned in time by combining similar shapes at common time-steps. Both approaches enable users to interactively visualize and analyze a temporal ensemble from different perspectives at different levels of detail. We demonstrate our techniques on an ensemble studying matter transition from hadronic gas to quark-gluon plasma during gold-on-gold particle collisions.

  12. Deux nouvelles lèvres de Cassidae au PPNB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaëlle Le Dosseur

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available En 2008, deux nouvelles lèvres de Cassidae ont été mises au jour sur deux sites néolithiques (Néolithique Précéramique B : PPNB du Levant Sud : Beisamoun et Yiftahel. Il s’agit d’objets façonnés sur la lèvre externe de coquillages méditerranéens appelés Phalium granulatum. Des aménagements pour la suspension (perforations aux extrémités laissent penser que ces objets ont été utilisés comme pendentifs ou qu’ils ont été cousus sur des vêtements ou des accessoires. Ces découvertes alimentent la discussion sur l’approvisionnement en matières premières mais aussi sur les parentés culturelles et les singularités de chaque site à cette époque. Si l’usage de lèvres de Cassidae est partagé par de nombreux sites PPNB, les modes de fabrication et de suspension ne sont pas strictement les mêmes sur tous. Ces variations reflètent-elles une évolution des modes de suspension dans le temps (au cours du PPNB moyen/récent ? Ou révèlent-elles des choix « contemporains » distincts, qui contribueraient à définir l’identité propre de chaque site ?   Après le Néolithique, l’usage des lèvres de Cassidae se poursuit aux Âges des métaux. À cette époque plus qu’au Néolithique, ces objets sont retrouvés dans des contextes funéraires. Il est difficile de savoir si cette situation résulte des méthodes de fouilles distinctes adoptées sur les sites néolithiques et sur ceux des Âges des métaux ou si elle est une réalité archéologique. Dans le second cas, on pourrait proposer que le sens donné aux lèvres de Cassidae, en partie reflété par le lieu de dépôt, a pu évoluer avec le temps.Two more cassid lips for the PPNBBeisamoun and Yiftahel In 2008, two new cassid lips have been found on two Neolithic sites (Pre Pottery Neolithic B, in the Southern Levant: Beisamoun and Yiftahel. These objects are shaped on the external lip of shells coming from the Mediterranean Sea and called Phalium

  13. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  14. Critical behavior in topological ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bulycheva, K; Nechaev, S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the relation between three physical problems: 2D directed lattice random walks in an external magnetic field, ensembles of torus knots, and 5d Abelian SUSY gauge theory with massless hypermultiplet in $\\Omega$ background. All these systems exhibit the critical behavior typical for the "area+length" statistics of grand ensembles of 2D directed paths. In particular, using the combinatorial description, we have found the new critical behavior in the ensembles of the torus knots and in the instanton ensemble in 5d gauge theory. The relation with the integrable model is discussed.

  15. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars;

    2005-01-01

    The Ensemble project investigated the use of meteorological ensemble fore-casts for the prognosis of uncertainty of the forecasts, and found a good method to make use of ensemble forecasts. This method was then tried based on ensembles from ECMWF in formof a demo application for both the Nysted...... offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...

  16. L’histoire du malade. Croisement de deux anthropologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline Labey

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available L’histoire des malades peut intégrer l’anthropologie de deux manières. Tout d’abord, elle peut utiliser l’anthropologie comme source de méthode et de questionnement. En écrivant une histoire de l’homme malade, l’historien se doit de saisir une situation corporelle individuelle et ses conséquences sociales dans un quotidien. Il interroge donc une société sur son rapport au corps, lorsqu’il est atteint par le mal, et sur son rapport à la norme, lorsqu’on s’en écarte. Ensuite, l’histoire des malades peut porter sur l’anthropologie comme discours, produit dans une période donnée. L’anthropologie est dès lors abordée en tant qu’objet de recherche. En croisant pratique et discours, il est possible de saisir les conséquences individuelles de l’évènement maladie. Pour le Moyen Age central, enjeux spirituels et enjeux institutionnels peuvent s’éclairer, grâce à cette double utilisation de l’anthropologie.The history of those who suffer from illness may integrate anthropology in two ways. First, anthropology can be used as method and a mode of questioning. In writing history of the sick, the historian must grasp a particular physiological situation and its social consequences in everyday life. He must question a society about its relationship with the body when it is affected by illness, and about what happens when an individual departs from the norm of health. Second, a history of the sick can use anthropology as a discourse, the product of a given period. In this case, anthropology is used as a subject of research. Combining practice and discourse, it is possible to apprehend individual consequences of an illness-event. This dual use of anthropology may clarify the spiritual and institutional consequences of illness in the central Middle Ages.La storia dei malati può integrare l’antropologia in due modi. In primo luogo, può utilizzare l’antropologia come fonte di metodi e di interrogativi

  17. The nosological significance of Folie à Deux: a review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel Anish

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Folie à Deux is a rare syndrome that has attracted much clinical attention. There is increasing doubt over the essence of the condition and the validity of the original description, such that it remains an elusive entity difficult to define. Method We conducted a systematic review of the literature of all cases reporting the phenomenon of Folie à Deux, from the years 1993–2005. Results 64 cases were identified of which 42 met the inclusion criteria. The diagnoses in the primary and secondary were more heterogeneous than current diagnostic criteria suggest. There exists a high degree of similarity between the primary and secondary in terms of susceptibility to psychiatric illness, family and past psychiatric history, than previously thought. Conclusion Folie à Deux can occur in many situations outside the confines of the current classification systems and is not as rare as believed, and should alert the clinician to unrecognized psychiatric problems in the secondary.

  18. ESPC Coupled Global Ensemble Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    coupled system infrastructure and forecasting capabilities. Initial operational capability is targeted for 2018. APPROACH 1. It is recognized...provided will be the probability distribution function (PDF) of environmental conditions. It is expected that this distribution will have skill. To...system would be the initial capability for ensemble forecasts . Extensions to fully coupled ensembles would be the next step. 2. Develop an extended

  19. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  20. Folie à Deux and its interaction with early life stress: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Vargas Alves Nunes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Folie à deux is a very rare psychiatric syndrome in which a psychotic symptom is transmitted from one individual to another. We present a case of folie à deux occurring during childhood, which is not an usual presentation of this syndrome. In this case, the disorder is correlated with child abuse and neglect, which possibly had a role in the development of the symptoms in our case. Case presentation We present a case of folie à deux between an “induced” 9-year-old black Brazilian boy and the “inducer”, his grandmother. They were found to be sharing similar auditory and visual hallucinations and delusional beliefs. The boy was neglected by his parents and was being cared for by his grandmother, who had a history of mental disorder. Conclusions The close relationship between the boy and his grandmother, the family history of first-degree psychosis, and the child abuse and neglect suffered by the boy may have altered his vulnerability to early-onset psychosis and, in this case, folie à deux.

  1. Ensemble manifold regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng

    2012-06-01

    We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  2. Diurnal Ensemble Surface Meteorology Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Excel file containing diurnal ensemble statistics of 2-m temperature, 2-m mixing ratio and 10-m wind speed. This Excel file contains figures for Figure 2 in the...

  3. Similarity measures for protein ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of similarities and changes in protein conformation can provide important information regarding protein function and evolution. Many scores, including the commonly used root mean square deviation, have therefore been developed to quantify the similarities of different protein conformations...... a synthetic example from molecular dynamics simulations. We then apply the algorithms to revisit the problem of ensemble averaging during structure determination of proteins, and find that an ensemble refinement method is able to recover the correct distribution of conformations better than standard single...

  4. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output is a...... is available via two password-protected web-pages hosted at IMM and is used daily by Elsam and E2....

  5. Estimating preselected and postselected ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massar, Serge [Laboratoire d' Information Quantique, C.P. 225, Universite libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Av. F. D. Rooselvelt 50, B-1050 Bruxelles (Belgium); Popescu, Sandu [H. H. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, Stoke Gifford, Bristol BS12 6QZ (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In analogy with the usual quantum state-estimation problem, we introduce the problem of state estimation for a pre- and postselected ensemble. The problem has fundamental physical significance since, as argued by Y. Aharonov and collaborators, pre- and postselected ensembles are the most basic quantum ensembles. Two new features are shown to appear: (1) information is flowing to the measuring device both from the past and from the future; (2) because of the postselection, certain measurement outcomes can be forced never to occur. Due to these features, state estimation in such ensembles is dramatically different from the case of ordinary, preselected-only ensembles. We develop a general theoretical framework for studying this problem and illustrate it through several examples. We also prove general theorems establishing that information flowing from the future is closely related to, and in some cases equivalent to, the complex conjugate information flowing from the past. Finally, we illustrate our approach on examples involving covariant measurements on spin-1/2 particles. We emphasize that all state-estimation problems can be extended to the pre- and postselected situation. The present work thus lays the foundations of a much more general theory of quantum state estimation.

  6. Algorithms on ensemble quantum computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykin, P Oscar; Mor, Tal; Roychowdhury, Vwani; Vatan, Farrokh

    2010-06-01

    In ensemble (or bulk) quantum computation, all computations are performed on an ensemble of computers rather than on a single computer. Measurements of qubits in an individual computer cannot be performed; instead, only expectation values (over the complete ensemble of computers) can be measured. As a result of this limitation on the model of computation, many algorithms cannot be processed directly on such computers, and must be modified, as the common strategy of delaying the measurements usually does not resolve this ensemble-measurement problem. Here we present several new strategies for resolving this problem. Based on these strategies we provide new versions of some of the most important quantum algorithms, versions that are suitable for implementing on ensemble quantum computers, e.g., on liquid NMR quantum computers. These algorithms are Shor's factorization algorithm, Grover's search algorithm (with several marked items), and an algorithm for quantum fault-tolerant computation. The first two algorithms are simply modified using a randomizing and a sorting strategies. For the last algorithm, we develop a classical-quantum hybrid strategy for removing measurements. We use it to present a novel quantum fault-tolerant scheme. More explicitly, we present schemes for fault-tolerant measurement-free implementation of Toffoli and σ(z)(¼) as these operations cannot be implemented "bitwise", and their standard fault-tolerant implementations require measurement.

  7. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  8. Mise au point de deux nouveaux matériaux à base de cobalt

    OpenAIRE

    CEA

    2014-01-01

    Des chercheurs du CEA, du CNRS, du Collège de France et de l’Université de Grenoble ont mis au point deux nouveaux matériaux à base de cobalt capables de remplacer le platine, métal rare et cher, dans la production d’hydrogène à partir d’eau (électrolyse). L’un peut fonctionner en solution aqueuse de pH neutre. Le second constitue le premier matériau catalytique « commutable » et sans métaux nobles jamais créé capable d’intervenir dans les deux réactions chimiques essentielles à l’électrolys...

  9. Problem un ou deux phonèmes? w języku polskim

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Wągiel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The un ou deux phonèmes? problem in Polish The paper deals with the so-called un ou deux phonèmes? problem in Modern Polish. The framework adopted by the author is the theory and methodology of Axiomatic Functionalism, i.e., a functional semiotic approach developed by Jan W. F. Mulder in association with Sándor G. J. Hervey which is mainly based on linguistic ideas of André Martinet. The analysis focuses on the phonological interpretation of sequences of palatalized labials and [j], nasal diphthongs, and affricates in Polish. The author argues that nasal diphthongs and palatal and retroflex affricates should be interpreted monophonematically, whereas it is both adequate and economical to interpret sequences of palatalized labials and [j] and alveolar affricates as realizations of sequences of two separate phonemes.   Problem un ou deux phonèmes? w języku polskim Niniejszy artykuł poświęcony jest tzw. problemowi un ou deux phonèmes? we współczesnej polszczyźnie. Aparatem pojęciowym wykorzystanym przez autora jest teoria i metodologia funkcjonalizmu aksjomatycznego, tj. funkcjonalnego opisu semiotycznego opracowanego przez Jana W. F. Muldera we współpracy z Sándorem G. J. Herveyem, który bazuje na koncepcjach lingwistycznych André Martineta. Analiza skupia się na interpretacji fonologicznej sekwencji spalatalizowanych spółgłosek labialnych oraz [j], dyftongów nazalnych, a także afrykat w języku polskim. Autor argumentuje, że dyftongi nazalne oraz afrykaty palatalne i retrofleksyjne powinny być interpretowane monofonemicznie, natomiast interpretacja sekwencji spalatalizowanych spółgłosek labialnych i [j] oraz afrykat alweolarnych jako realizacji sekwencji dwóch niezależnych fonemów jest zarówno adekwatna, jak i ekonomiczna.

  10. Tuberculose multirésistante chez l'enfant: à propos de deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slimani, Hajar; Bricha, Myriem; Sqalli, Fatima-Ezzahra; Hammi, Sanaa; Bourkadi, Jamal-Eddine

    2016-01-01

    La tuberculose multirésistante chez l'enfant est une forme grave de la tuberculose, présentant un problème majeur de santé surtout dans les pays en voie de développement. Nous présentons le cas de deux enfants suivis dans notre formation pour tuberculose multirésistante mis sous schéma thérapeutique de deuxième ligne. PMID:27279953

  11. L'eau en Franche-Comté: deux cartes pour poser des questions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel JOLY

    1993-12-01

    Full Text Available Quatre couches d’information d’une banque de données ont été croisées pour fournir deux cartes prospectives. Elles montrent les zones qui poseront de plus en plus de problèmes pour la qualité de l’eau et les rejets non contrôlés.

  12. Sur deux espèces D'anthessius (Copepoda) des Indes Orientales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stock, J.H.

    1964-01-01

    Les espèces du genre Anthessius Della Valle, 1880, sont associées de façon très préférentielle à deux classes de Mollusques: les Pélécypodes et les Gastéropodes. Notre connaissance taxonomique du genre progresse actuellement de manière très rapide. Il y a cinq ans seulement, on ne connaissait que 11

  13. Description de deux nouvelles espèces du genre Onychogymnus, Quedenfeldt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelofs, W.

    1892-01-01

    Mr. Neervoort van de Poll possède deux nouvelles espèces de Curculionides voisins du genre Diabathrarius Schh. qui me paraissent, malgré quelques différences, peut-être génériques, pouvoir entrer dans le genre Onychogymnus Quedenf. ¹). La première de ces espèces, originaire de Madagascar, possède un

  14. Linking neuronal ensembles by associative synaptic plasticity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan

    Full Text Available Synchronized activity in ensembles of neurons recruited by excitatory afferents is thought to contribute to the coding information in the brain. However, the mechanisms by which neuronal ensembles are generated and modified are not known. Here we show that in rat hippocampal slices associative synaptic plasticity enables ensembles of neurons to change by incorporating neurons belonging to different ensembles. Associative synaptic plasticity redistributes the composition of different ensembles recruited by distinct inputs such as to specifically increase the similarity between the ensembles. These results show that in the hippocampus, the ensemble of neurons recruited by a given afferent projection is fluid and can be rapidly and persistently modified to specifically include neurons from different ensembles. This linking of ensembles may contribute to the formation of associative memories.

  15. Le chondrosarcome naso-sinusien: à propos de deux cas et revue de la literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touati, Mohamed Mliha; Chihani, Mehdi; Darouassi, Youssef; Lakouichmi, Mohammed; Tourabi, Khalid; Bouaity, Brahim; Ammar, Haddou

    2014-01-01

    Le chondrosarcome est une tumeur maligne très destructrice d'origine cartilagineuse, osseuse et mesnchymateuse. La localisation au niveau de la tête et cou est rare et le siège naso sinusien est encore plus rare. Nous rapportons deux observations de chondrosarcome du sinus maxillaire droit et sphéno ethmoïdale. Le but de notre travail est de montrer à travers ces deux cas cliniques, l'intérêt de la tomodensitométrie et de la résonance magnétique dans la présemption diagnostique en corrélation avec la clinique et l'endoscopie,de discuter le choix de la voix et la technique d'abord chirurgical et la surveillance post opératoire. A travers ces deux observations nous soulignerons les difficultés que pose cette tumeur à l'anatomopathologiste pour différencier entre chondrome et chondrosarcome. PMID:25810801

  16. A mollified Ensemble Kalman filter

    CERN Document Server

    Bergemann, Kay

    2010-01-01

    It is well recognized that discontinuous analysis increments of sequential data assimilation systems, such as ensemble Kalman filters, might lead to spurious high frequency adjustment processes in the model dynamics. Various methods have been devised to continuously spread out the analysis increments over a fixed time interval centered about analysis time. Among these techniques are nudging and incremental analysis updates (IAU). Here we propose another alternative, which may be viewed as a hybrid of nudging and IAU and which arises naturally from a recently proposed continuous formulation of the ensemble Kalman analysis step. A new slow-fast extension of the popular Lorenz-96 model is introduced to demonstrate the properties of the proposed mollified ensemble Kalman filter.

  17. Excitation energies from ensemble DFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgoo, Alex; Teale, Andy M.; Helgaker, Trygve

    2015-12-01

    We study the evaluation of the Gross-Oliveira-Kohn expression for excitation energies E1-E0=ɛ1-ɛ0+∂E/xc,w[ρ] ∂w | ρ =ρ0. This expression gives the difference between an excitation energy E1 - E0 and the corresponding Kohn-Sham orbital energy difference ɛ1 - ɛ0 as a partial derivative of the exchange-correlation energy of an ensemble of states Exc,w[ρ]. Through Lieb maximisation, on input full-CI density functions, the exchange-correlation energy is evaluated accurately and the partial derivative is evaluated numerically using finite difference. The equality is studied numerically for different geometries of the H2 molecule and different ensemble weights. We explore the adiabatic connection for the ensemble exchange-correlation energy. The latter may prove useful when modelling the unknown weight dependence of the exchange-correlation energy.

  18. The Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy

    CERN Document Server

    Nemoto, K; Nemoto, Kae; Braunstein, Samuel L.

    2002-01-01

    The Partition Ensemble Fallacy was recently applied to claim no quantum coherence exists in coherent states produced by lasers. We show that this claim relies on an untestable belief of a particular prior distribution of absolute phase. One's choice for the prior distribution for an unobservable quantity is a matter of `religion'. We call this principle the Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy. Further, we show an alternative approach to construct a relative-quantity Hilbert subspace where unobservability of certain quantities is guaranteed by global conservation laws. This approach is applied to coherent states and constructs an approximate relative-phase Hilbert subspace.

  19. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold;

    2015-01-01

    Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but ...

  20. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  1. Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

  2. Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearanc...

  3. Comparaison de deux modèles de comportement viscoplastique à variables internes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévêque, E.; Delobelle, P.

    1994-02-01

    The aim of this paper is about the comparison between two unified models with internal variables which have been established with 17-12MoSPH austenitic stainless steel experimental results. One is developed at the National Office of Aerospatial Research and Studies, the other, at the Applied Mechanical Laboratory of Besançon. The study proved their validity when applicated to a well known experimental loadings at high temperature, 500-600 °C. The two models report correctly the phenomena corresponding to classical loadings like monotonic traction, creep and cyclic hardening. However, there are important differences about transient creep and cyclic hardening under stress control. In the present state of the models, the progressive strain under uni or bidirectional loading (1D and 2D ratchet) is strongly overestimated. However, it is shown that it is possible to correctly describe the two types of progressive strain after taking into account a few modifications in the definition of the evolutionary laws for the tensorial variables of kinematical hardenings. Finally, the comparison does not allow to prefer one of the two models. Il s'agit dans cet article de comparer deux modèles viscoplastiques unifiés à variables internes établis à partir de résultats expérimentaux concernant l'acier austénitique inoxydable 17-12MoSPH ; l'un développé à l'Office National d'Etudes et Recherches Aérospatiales, l'autre au Laboratoire de Mécanique Appliquée de Besançon. L'étude a permis la validation des deux modèles par rapport à une base de données expérimentales aux températures élevées, 550 et 600 °C. Les deux modèles traduisent correctement les phénomènes inhérents à des chargements, classiques de traction monotone, fluage et d'écrouissage cyclique à déformation imposée. Par contre, on note des différences importantes en ce qui concerne l'hésitation au fluage et les essais cycliques à contrainte imposée. Dans leur version initiale les deux mod

  4. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  5. Ibn Arabi et Jean de la Croix deux poètes mystiques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Azouz Ali Ahmed

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Frappée du sceau de l’universel, l’expérience mystique ne cesse de soulever des interrogations à la fois sur ses fondements (ses assises théoriques, spirituelles et culturelles et sur les différentes voies qui lui permettent de s’inscrire dans l’ordre des choses comme un phénomène social inéluctable soutenu par des penseurs, des artistes, des femmes et des hommes de Lettres exceptionnels. Dans notre article, nous nous intéressons à deux grandes figures du mysticisme : Ibn Arabi (560/1165 - 638/1240 et Jean de la Croix (1542/1591. A la lumière d’une étude stylistique à visée comparative de deux de leurs compositions poétiques, que nous situons dans une plus large perspective (historico-sociale, nous montrons comment le même désir (concept sur lequel un détour lacanien s’impose de Dieu s’exprime, Chez Ibn Arabi, par le moyen d’une écriture de l’entre-deux qui se singularise par un enchevêtrement structuré des dimensions philosophique et littéraire. Tout comme chez Jean de la Croix, par une écriture poétique d’un lyrisme qui, avec une rare subtilité, entretient une forme d’équivocité constitutive du discours exprimant l’amour divin avec le langage de l’amour profane.

  6. Nous Deux, un dispositif de médiation culturelle ?

    OpenAIRE

    Giet, Sylvette

    2013-01-01

    C’est par les marges que cet article se propose d’envisager les dispositifs de médiation culturelle. En centrant son regard sur un support de presse massivement déconsidéré, mais massivement reçu (Nous Deux, parangon de la « presse du cœur »), il se proposera d’envisager un support de presse comme dispositif formel, et comme dispositif dialogique entre une production et une réception ; en d’autres termes de mesurer en quoi le lectorat d’un support illégitime de presse peut être tenu pour un p...

  7. Symanzik flow on HISQ ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2013-01-01

    We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The lattice scale $w_0/a$, originally proposed by the BMW collaboration, is computed using Symanzik flow at four lattice spacings ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm. With a Taylor series ansatz, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We give a preliminary determination of the scale $w_0$ in physical units, along with associated systematic errors, and compare with results from other groups. We also present a first estimate of autocorrelation lengths as a function of flowtime for these ensembles.

  8. Spectral diagonal ensemble Kalman filters

    CERN Document Server

    Kasanický, Ivan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    A new type of ensemble Kalman filter is developed, which is based on replacing the sample covariance in the analysis step by its diagonal in a spectral basis. It is proved that this technique improves the aproximation of the covariance when the covariance itself is diagonal in the spectral basis, as is the case, e.g., for a second-order stationary random field and the Fourier basis. The method is extended by wavelets to the case when the state variables are random fields, which are not spatially homogeneous. Efficient implementations by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are presented for several types of observations, including high-dimensional data given on a part of the domain, such as radar and satellite images. Computational experiments confirm that the method performs well on the Lorenz 96 problem and the shallow water equations with very small ensembles and over multiple analysis cycles.

  9. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  10. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriell eMáté

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  11. Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Fedorova, A N; Fedorova, Antonina N.; Zeitlin, Michael G.

    2004-01-01

    We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearance of (stable) localized patterns (waveletons) and consider entanglement and decoherence as possible applications.

  12. Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Licence; En 1935, un groupe de mathématiciens français eut l'ambition de reconstruire tout l'édifice mathématique (sans S pour bien montrer l'unité) selon la pensée formaliste de Hilbert. Les membres fondateurs ont été Henri Cartan, Claude Chevalley, Jean Delsarte, Jean Dieudonné, André Weil auxquels se joindra René de Possel. En juillet 1935 fut donc créé, lors d'un séminaire en Auvergne le groupe 'Nicolas Bourbaki'. Le nom de cette association fait référence en fait à une anecdote qui se pa...

  13. Quantum Repeaters and Atomic Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Johannes

    a previous protocol, thereby enabling fast local processing, which greatly enhances the distribution rate. We then move on to describe our work on improving the stability of atomic clocks using entanglement. Entanglement can potentially push the stability of atomic clocks to the so-called Heisenberg limit......, which is the absolute upper limit of the stability allowed by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. It has, however, been unclear whether entangled state’s enhanced sensitivity to noise would prevent reaching this limit. We have developed an adaptive measurement protocol, which circumvents this problem...... based on atomic ensembles....

  14. A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butala, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

  15. Ensemble Methods Foundations and Algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Zhi-Hua

    2012-01-01

    An up-to-date, self-contained introduction to a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms shows how these accurate methods are used in real-world tasks. It gives you the necessary groundwork to carry out further research in this evolving field. After presenting background and terminology, the book covers the main algorithms and theories, including Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, averaging and voting schemes, the Stacking method, mixture of experts, and diversity measures. It also discusses multiclass extension, noise tolerance, error-ambiguity a

  16. Gibbs Ensembles of Nonintersecting Paths

    CERN Document Server

    Borodin, Alexei

    2008-01-01

    We consider a family of determinantal random point processes on the two-dimensional lattice and prove that members of our family can be interpreted as a kind of Gibbs ensembles of nonintersecting paths. Examples include probability measures on lozenge and domino tilings of the plane, some of which are non-translation-invariant. The correlation kernels of our processes can be viewed as extensions of the discrete sine kernel, and we show that the Gibbs property is a consequence of simple linear relations satisfied by these kernels. The processes depend on infinitely many parameters, which are closely related to parametrization of totally positive Toeplitz matrices.

  17. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-05

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances.

  18. Analysis of mesoscale forecasts using ensemble methods

    CERN Document Server

    Gross, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid scale these forecasts often do not compare well with observations. This is partly due to the chaotic system underlying the weather. Another key problem is that it is impossible to evaluate the risk of making decisions based on these forecasts because they do not provide a measure of confidence. Ensembles provide this information in the ensemble spread and quartiles. However, running global ensembles at the meso or sub mesoscale involves substantial computational resources. National centers do run such ensembles, but the subject of this publication is a method which requires significantly less computation. The ensemble enhanced mesoscale system presented here aims not at the creation of an improved mesoscale forecast model. Also it is not to create an improved ensemble syste...

  19. Interpreting Tree Ensembles with inTrees

    OpenAIRE

    Deng, Houtao

    2014-01-01

    Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification an...

  20. Analysis of peeling decoder for MET ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Hinton, Ryan

    2009-01-01

    The peeling decoder introduced by Luby, et al. allows analysis of LDPC decoding for the binary erasure channel (BEC). For irregular ensembles, they analyze the decoder state as a Markov process and present a solution to the differential equations describing the process mean. Multi-edge type (MET) ensembles allow greater precision through specifying graph connectivity. We generalize the the peeling decoder for MET ensembles and derive analogous differential equations. We offer a new change of variables and solution to the node fraction evolutions in the general (MET) case. This result is preparatory to investigating finite-length ensemble behavior.

  1. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), when applied to high-dimensional systems, suffers from an inevitably small affordable ensemble size, which results in poor estimates of the background error covariance matrix ${\\bf B}$. The common remedy is a kind of regularization, usually an ad-hoc spatial covariance localization (tapering) combined with artificial covariance inflation. Instead of using an ad-hoc regularization, we adopt the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010) and explicitly admit that the ${\\bf B}$ matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (${\\bf x}$) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components ${\\bf P}$ and ${\\bf Q}$ of the ${\\bf B}$ matrix into the extended control vector $({\\bf x},{\\bf P},{\\bf Q})$. Similarly, we break the traditional backgrou...

  2. Visualizing ensembles in structural biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, Ryan L; Salsbury, Freddie R

    2016-06-01

    Displaying a single representative conformation of a biopolymer rather than an ensemble of states mistakenly conveys a static nature rather than the actual dynamic personality of biopolymers. However, there are few apparent options due to the fixed nature of print media. Here we suggest a standardized methodology for visually indicating the distribution width, standard deviation and uncertainty of ensembles of states with little loss of the visual simplicity of displaying a single representative conformation. Of particular note is that the visualization method employed clearly distinguishes between isotropic and anisotropic motion of polymer subunits. We also apply this method to ligand binding, suggesting a way to indicate the expected error in many high throughput docking programs when visualizing the structural spread of the output. We provide several examples in the context of nucleic acids and proteins with particular insights gained via this method. Such examples include investigating a therapeutic polymer of FdUMP (5-fluoro-2-deoxyuridine-5-O-monophosphate) - a topoisomerase-1 (Top1), apoptosis-inducing poison - and nucleotide-binding proteins responsible for ATP hydrolysis from Bacillus subtilis. We also discuss how these methods can be extended to any macromolecular data set with an underlying distribution, including experimental data such as NMR structures.

  3. Faire territoire au quotidien dans les grands ensembles HLM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis la Mache

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cet article propose une lecture anthropologique de la manière dont les habitants des grands ensembles de périphéries urbaines délimitent, administrent, transforment matériellement et symboliquement les espaces et les lieux de leur quotidien pour faire territoire. Nous nous intéresserons à la fabrication de ces entités spatiales dont chaque individu se donne la liberté de disposer chaque jour selon un usage singulier et qu’il entoure d’un champ symbolique spécifique, garant d’identité. Ces « fabrications sociospatiales » seront abordées à partir d’une recherche empirique menée auprès d’habitants de deux terrains d’enquêtes situés dans des périphéries de villes moyennes.This paper proposes an anthropological reading of how the inhabitants of large urban peripheries define, administer, and process their daily spaces and places from a material as much as symbolical point of view to give sense to their territory. We will focus on the making of these spatial entities, witch everyone can dispose of everyday individually, to guarantee their identity. These “socio spatial creations” will be based on an empirical research, that is to say surveys conducted among the suburbians of two towns.

  4. Effets du chlorure de cadmium et du chromate de plomb sur deux mollusques bivalves

    OpenAIRE

    Ballan-dufrancais, C.; Jeantet, A.y.; Martoja, R; Truchet, M

    1985-01-01

    La contamination expérimentale d'huîtres par le chlorure de cadmium (500 µg/1 pendant 7 et 26 jours) ne cause aucune lésion histologique ou cytologique, mais elle accélère la déplétion testiculaire et, dans quelques cas, s'oppose au stockage du glycogène. L'excellente résistance des huîtres est due à l'efficacité de deux types de mécanismes de détoxication. Le premier consiste en une immobilisation du cadmium, dans les organes absorbants, dans un état chimique stable et inerte sur le plan mét...

  5. Deux théories de l'analyse psychique: Wundt et Brentano

    OpenAIRE

    Dewalque, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    L’objectif de ce chapitre est de réévaluer succinctement les relations entre la phénoménologie et la psychologie expérimentale naissantes à partir des positions de Franz Brentano et de Wilhelm Wundt. Contrairement à une idée reçue, je suggère, d’une part, que les programmes analytiques de Brentano et de Wundt reposent tous deux sur un procédé expérimental consistant à faire varier les parties des phénomènes psychiques étudiés. Mais je suggère aussi, d’autre part, que les théories de l’analyse...

  6. Comment le monde contemporain adapte les deux mythes fondateurs de l’humanité ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Lewi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available L’être humain, « un roseau, le plus faible de la nature, mais un roseau pensant », a besoin de trouver sa place dans une quête quasi maladive. Le petit être humain a autant besoin d’une boussole que d’un biberon. Voilà à quoi servent les mythes : à trouver enfin sa place parmi les oppositions binaires qui nous assaillent : dedans/dehors, montagne/vallée, homme/femme, mort/vivant, dominant/dominé, Artiste/artisan… Or dans cette géographie de l’intime social, deux mythes s’opposent depuis la nuit des temps : celui de l’âge d’or, mythe collectif du retour en arrière et celui de Pandore, mythe individuel de la fuite en avant. Notre société et nos contemporains n’échappent pas à cette « fatalité ».

  7. Gouvernance et planification de deux périphéries multifonctionnelles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Faliès

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available L’objectif de cet article est d’établir une mise en perspective entre deux terrains périurbains : Quilpué (au Chili et Lurín (au Pérou. Au-delà de l’analyse de leur composition et de leur fonctionnement, l’intérêt est de souligner l’enjeu existant autour de leur planification. Mais dans un contexte de faible régulation par l’Etat et avec un manque d’outils de planification applicables à ces espaces hybrides, ni vraiment urbains, ni vraiment ruraux, leur gouvernance est délicate. Ainsi, la multifonctionnalité de ces deux territoires, qui présuppose des conflits d’intérêt entre les différents acteurs, engendre la participation de la société civile ainsi que des projets visant des recompositions territoriales.Este articulo tiene como objetivo establecer una mirada cruzada entre dos terrenos periurbanos : Quilpué (en Chile y Lurín (en Perú. Mas allá de analizar su composición y su funcionamiento, el interés de este articulo reside en señalar las problemáticas principales en lo referente a la planificación territorial de espacios periurbanos. Pero, la débil regulación por parte del Estado y una falta de instrumentos de planificación adaptados a estos espacios híbridos, ni totalmente urbanos, ni totalmente rurales, hacen que su gobernanza sea una cuestión delicada. Es así que la multifuncionalidad de estos territorios, presupone conflictos de interés entre los distintos actores presentes. Esto esta engendrando la participación de la sociedad civil y proyectos que conducen a recomposiciones territoriales.

  8. DOMMAGES CAUSÉS À LA MOLECULE D’ADN PAR LES EFFETS CONJUGUÉS DE DEUX DISTRIBUTIONS D’ESPÈCES RADIOLYTIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.E.K ABDELMOUMENE

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available L’ADN, support de l’information génétique de la cellule, est la cible la plus importante lors d’une exposition à un rayonnement ionisant (radiothérapie, scintigraphie…. Sa dégradation est à l’origine de désordres cellulaires dramatiques comme la cancérisation. Pour quantifier ces effets, nous avons considéré deux électrons d’énergie incidente 1 KeV qui traversent un milieu aqueux fournissant chacun une distribution de  radicaux libres (e-aq, H,OH, H+aq, H2, H2O2, OH-, O2, O-2, OH2, OH2- que nous avons fait évoluer selon un ensemble de codes informatiques élaborés sur un modèle déterministe jusqu’à leur collision et estimer ainsi la concentration et le rendement de chaque espèce. Dans cette étude, nous n’avons considéré queles espèces les plus agressives vis à vis des molécules biologiques e-aq, H et plus particulièrement l’hydroxyle OH. Nous avons ainsi estimé le nombre moyensde diverses lésions portées à l’ADN. L’intérêt essentiel de cette étude est lamise au point d’un modèle simple d’adaptation facile du point de vue applications qui peut renseignersur les dommages causés à une molécule aussi importante que l’ADN.

  9. Approximation et précision : deux facettes d'une même réalité

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asnes Maria

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available L'approximation et la précision semblent être à deux pôles opposés: en effet, l'approximation est souvent considérée comme l'imprécision étant donné qu'elle fournit une représentation inexacte d'une valeur connue ou inconnue. Pourtant, la langue nous confronte avec des cas où le même terme peut avoir un sens tantôt approximatif tantôt précis. S'agit-il alors de deux emplois complètement distincts ou de deux effets de sens issus du même noyau sémantique? Cette étude prend comme objet l'adverbe plutôt qui manifeste des emplois approximatifs ainsi que précis.. A travers l'étude de ce terme on montrera que l'approximation et la précision ne sont pas toujours des termes opposés, mais qu'ils relèvent de deux facettes d'une même réalité de base.

  10. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  11. Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

    1992-01-01

    . It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...

  12. Commande optimisee d'un ensemble convertisseur-machine synchrone autopilotée fonctionnant en mode dégradé biphasé

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Yuchao; Hautier, J.

    1994-01-01

    Cet article présente des marches dégradées optimisées applicables à un ensemble convertisseur-machine synchrone, lorsque des défauts de conduction apparaissent au niveau du convertisseur. Après analyse de l'influence d'un défaut de commande sur les caractéristiques de l'ensemble d'entraînement, une stratégie de rattrapage, en marche dégradée monophasée, est d'abord proposée pour pallier aux inconvénients de deux types de défauts lorsque le neutre de la machine est isolé. Dans ce mode de march...

  13. Perception of ensemble statistics requires attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Nielsen, Molly; Cohen, Michael A; Pitts, Michael A

    2017-02-01

    To overcome inherent limitations in perceptual bandwidth, many aspects of the visual world are represented as summary statistics (e.g., average size, orientation, or density of objects). Here, we investigated the relationship between summary (ensemble) statistics and visual attention. Recently, it was claimed that one ensemble statistic in particular, color diversity, can be perceived without focal attention. However, a broader debate exists over the attentional requirements of conscious perception, and it is possible that some form of attention is necessary for ensemble perception. To test this idea, we employed a modified inattentional blindness paradigm and found that multiple types of summary statistics (color and size) often go unnoticed without attention. In addition, we found attentional costs in dual-task situations, further implicating a role for attention in statistical perception. Overall, we conclude that while visual ensembles may be processed efficiently, some amount of attention is necessary for conscious perception of ensemble statistics.

  14. Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study

    CERN Document Server

    Maclin, R; 10.1613/jair.614

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is often more accurate than any of the single classifiers in the ensemble. Bagging (Breiman, 1996c) and Boosting (Freund and Shapire, 1996; Shapire, 1990) are two relatively new but popular methods for producing ensembles. In this paper we evaluate these methods on 23 data sets using both neural networks and decision trees as our classification algorithm. Our results clearly indicate a number of conclusions. First, while Bagging is almost always more accurate than a single classifier, it is sometimes much less accurate than Boosting. On the other hand, Boosting can create ensembles that are less accurate than a single classifier -- especially when using neural networks. Analysis indicates that the performance of the Boosting methods is dependent on the characteristics of the data set being exa...

  15. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Theis, Susanne E; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach which preserves the dynamical development of the ensemble members is called dynamic ensemble copula coupling (...

  16. Dib et Djaout : le métier à tisser en deux temps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiane Ndiaye

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A plus de trente ans d’intervalle, Le Métier à tisser de Mohammed Dib et Les Vigiles de Tahar Djaout se construisent tous deux autour de la figure du métier à tisser, instrument de travail d’un peuple qui n’en finit pas d’être dépossédé. Si, chez Dib, l’espoir subsiste que le peuple se mettra en marche pour faire en sorte que «ça changera» (164, chez Djaout la désillusion prend des accents dramatiques. La «rénovation» du métier à tisser, du pays, ne servira finalement que les intérêts des Vigiles qui s’évertuent à «défendre le pays contre son propre peuple» (1991 : 111. La grande famille unie de la nouvelle cité dictera à chacun son comportement, sa vie et sa mort, si celle-ci peut lui servir. De la lecture croisée de ces deux romans se dégage ainsi une mise en garde contre l’imaginaire du «malgré tout» dont se sert le pouvoir pour manipuler le peuple. Though published more than thirty years apart, the novels Le Métier à tisser by Mohammed Dib and Les Vigiles by Tahar Djaout are both constructed around the figure of the loom, the instrument of labour of a people apparently faced with endless dispossession. If, in Dib’s novel, hope persists that the people will take a stand so that “things change” (164, in Djaout’s novel disillusionment takes on dramatic accents. "Renovating" the loom or the country, in fact only serves the interests of the Vigils who do their utmost to “defend the country against its own people” (1991 : 111. The great united family of the new state dictates everyone’s behaviour, their life and their death, if the latter can serve its purposes. From the joint reading of these two novels emerges a warning against the fantasy of “in spite of it all” used by the authorities to manipulate its people.

  17. Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo; Akkraoui, Amal El

    2014-01-01

    The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is preparing to upgrade its three-dimensional variational system to a hybrid approach in which the ensemble is generated using a square-root ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the variational problem is solved using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system. As in most EnKF applications, we found it necessary to employ a combination of multiplicative and additive inflations, to compensate for sampling and modeling errors, respectively and, to maintain the small-member ensemble solution close to the variational solution; we also found it necessary to re-center the members of the ensemble about the variational analysis. During tuning of the filter we have found re-centering and additive inflation to play a considerably larger role than expected, particularly in a dual-resolution context when the variational analysis is ran at larger resolution than the ensemble. This led us to consider a hybrid strategy in which the members of the ensemble are generated by simply converting the variational analysis to the resolution of the ensemble and applying additive inflation, thus bypassing the EnKF. Comparisons of this, so-called, filter-free hybrid procedure with an EnKF-based hybrid procedure and a control non-hybrid, traditional, scheme show both hybrid strategies to provide equally significant improvement over the control; more interestingly, the filter-free procedure was found to give qualitatively similar results to the EnKF-based procedure.

  18. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  19. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  20. 4DVAR by ensemble Kalman smoother

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Gratton, Serge

    2013-01-01

    We propose to use the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) as linear least squares solver in the Gauss-Newton method for the large nonlinear least squares in incremental 4DVAR. The ensemble approach is naturally parallel over the ensemble members and no tangent or adjoint operators are needed. Further, adding a regularization term results in replacing the Gauss-Newton method, which may diverge, by^M the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is known to be convergent. The regularization is implemented efficiently as an additional observation in the EnKS.

  1. Congo belge et littérature de jeunesse dans l'entre-deux-guerres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence Boudart

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Méconnue de la critique, la littérature coloniale belge pour la jeunesse de langue française ouvre néanmoins des perspectives intéressantes quant à l'histoire du fait colonial mais aussi, plus largement, à tout le questionnement identitaire induit par le rapport à l'autre et à l'ailleurs. C'est dans ce contexte que nous étudions trois ouvrages majeurs de la période de l'entre-deux-guerres : Tante Julia découvre le Congo (Roger Ransy, 1932, Jeannot gosse d’Afrique (Jeanne Maquet-Tombu, 1935 et Bamboula le petit homme noir (Franz Hellens, 1942, adapté de Bass-Bassina-Boulou, 1922. Nous veillons à montrer par quels moyens ces récits coloniaux pour l'enfance constituent un lieu privilégié où l'on peut, soit rallier, soit questionner l'idéologie.

  2. Passeport pour les deux infinis vers l'infiniment grand, vers l'infiniment petit

    CERN Document Server

    Descotes-Genon, Sébastien; Kerhoas-Cavata, Sophie; Paul, Jacques; Robert, Jean-Luc; Royole-Degieux, Perrine

    2016-01-01

    Où commence l'infiniment grand ? Où finit l'infiniment petit ? Les chercheurs ont identifié le rayonnement fossile émis il y a 13,8 milliards d'année et qui permet de remonter aux origines de l'Univers. A l'opposé, le modèle standard a identifié 12 particules élémentaires et trois forces fondamentales qui permettent de décrire la constitution ultime de la matière. Est-ce à dire que tout est terminé, que plus rien n'est à découvrir ? Certainement pas ! Tandis que les outils d'observation deviennent plus précis, la nécessité d'établir des passerelles entre l'infiniment grand et l'infini petit devient pressante. Dans cette nouvelle édition actualisée, les plus grands spécialistes présentent un panorama des connaissances actuelles des deux infinis.

  3. Passeport pour les deux infinis vers l'infiniment grand, vers l'infiniment petit

    CERN Document Server

    Arnaud, Nicolas; Kerhoas-Cavata, Sophie; Paul, Jacques; Robert-Esil, Jean-Luc; Royole-Degieux, Perrine

    2013-01-01

    Où commence l'infiniment grand ? Où finit l'infiniment petit ? Les chercheurs ont identifié le rayonnement fossile émis il y a 13,7 milliards d'année et qui permet de remonter aux origines de l'Univers. A l'opposé, le modèle standard a identifié 12 particules élémentaires et trois forces fondamentales qui permettent de décrire la constitution ultime de la matière. Est-ce à dire que tout est terminé, que plus rien n'est à découvrir ? Certainement pas ! Tandis que les outils d'observation deviennent plus précis, la nécessité d'établir des passerelles entre l'infiniment grand et l'infini petit devient pressante. Dans ce livre illustré en couleur, les plus grands spécialistes présentent un panorama des connaissances actuelles pour voyager à la découverte des deux infinis. Cette nouvelle édition à jour tient compte des derniers réusultats du LHC dans sa quête du fameux boson de Higgs, et intègre les premières images du rayonnement fossile provenant du satellite Planck.

  4. Pouvoir politique vs puissance des marchés : deux mondes parallèles ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérôme Sgard

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available La discussion des rapports entre marché et politique est le plus souvent posée dans des termes caricaturaux: à la fin, l'un est censé l'emporter sur l'autre. A moins, par exemple, qu'on interprète les problèmes de gouvernance économique globale en termes de « guerre économique » : une métaphore particulièrement stérile, qui opacifie les problèmes au lieu de les éclairer. La présente contribution cherche à reproblématiser la question en insistant notamment sur deux points : d'une part les différences riches et significatives existant entre la première mondialisation (1870-1914 et la phase actuelle (post-1990 ; de l'autre l'idée qu'aujourd'hui, l'engagement des souverains sur la scène internationale est contingente, ou optionnelle, alors qu'au plan local, leur obligation de défendre de la société et la division du travail est imparable. Les souverains agissent plus que jamais localement et sont sanctionnés par leurs citoyens et leur société civile.

  5. Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors

    CERN Document Server

    Balci, Nusret; Restrepo, Juan M; Sell, George R

    2011-01-01

    We introduce the new concept of an EBV to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in initial conditions for weather forecasting. The new algorithm, which we call the "Ensemble Bred Vector" or EBV, is based on collective dynamics in essential ways. By construction, the EBV algorithm produces one or more dominant vectors. We investigate the performance of EBV, comparing it to the BV algorithm as well as the finite-time Lyapunov Vectors. We give a theoretical justification to the observed fact that the vectors produced by BV, EBV, and the finite-time Lyapunov vectors are similar for small amplitudes. Numerical comparisons of BV and EBV for the 3-equation Lorenz model and for a forced, dissipative partial differential equation of Cahn-Hilliard type that arises in modeling the thermohaline circulation, demonstrate that the EBV yields a size-ordered description of the perturbation field, and is more robust than the BV in the higher nonlinear regime. The EBV yields insight into the fractal structure of th...

  6. A 4D-Ensemble-Variational System for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Neill; Clayton, Adam; Jardak, Mohamed; Lee, Eunjoo; Jermey, Peter; Lorenc, Andrew; Piccolo, Chiara; Pring, Stephen; Wlasak, Marek; Barker, Dale; Inverarity, Gordon; Swinbank, Richard

    2016-04-01

    The Met Office has been developing a four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system over the past four years. The 4DEnVar system is intended both as data assimilation system in its own right and also an improved means of initializing the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The global MOGREPS ensemble has been initialized by running an ensemble of 4DEnVars (En-4DEnVar). The scalability and maintainability of ensemble data assimilation methods make them increasingly attractive, and 4DEnVar may be adopted in the context of the Met Office's LFRic project to redevelop the technical infrastructure to enable its Unified Model (MetUM) to be run efficiently on massively parallel supercomputers. This presentation will report on the results of the 4DEnVar development project, including experiments that have been run using ensemble sizes of up to 200 members.

  7. Ensemble treatments of thermal pairing in nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Nguyen Quang; Dang, Nguyen Dinh

    2009-10-01

    A systematic comparison is conducted for pairing properties of finite systems at nonzero temperature as predicted by the exact solutions of the pairing problem embedded in three principal statistical ensembles, namely the grandcanonical ensemble, canonical ensemble and microcanonical ensemble, as well as the unprojected (FTBCS1+SCQRPA) and Lipkin-Nogami projected (FTLN1+SCQRPA) theories that include the quasiparticle number fluctuation and coupling to pair vibrations within the self-consistent quasiparticle random-phase approximation. The numerical calculations are performed for the pairing gap, total energy, heat capacity, entropy, and microcanonical temperature within the doubly-folded equidistant multilevel pairing model. The FTLN1+SCQRPA predictions are found to agree best with the exact grand-canonical results. In general, all approaches clearly show that the superfluid-normal phase transition is smoothed out in finite systems. A novel formula is suggested for extracting the empirical pairing gap in reasonable agreement with the exact canonical results.

  8. Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yunqian

    2012-01-01

    It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

  9. Transition from Poisson to circular unitary ensemble

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Vinayak; Akhilesh Pandey

    2009-09-01

    Transitions to universality classes of random matrix ensembles have been useful in the study of weakly-broken symmetries in quantum chaotic systems. Transitions involving Poisson as the initial ensemble have been particularly interesting. The exact two-point correlation function was derived by one of the present authors for the Poisson to circular unitary ensemble (CUE) transition with uniform initial density. This is given in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter Λ. The same result was obtained for Poisson to Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) transition by Kunz and Shapiro, using the contour-integral method of Brezin and Hikami. We show that their method is applicable to Poisson to CUE transition with arbitrary initial density. Their method is also applicable to the more general ℓ CUE to CUE transition where CUE refers to the superposition of ℓ independent CUE spectra in arbitrary ratio.

  10. Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Flowerdew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output

  11. Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoru Wang; Junping Du; Shuzhe Wu; Xu Li; Fu Li

    2013-01-01

    Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories ...

  12. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris

    2009-01-01

    International audience; We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrati...

  13. Reversible Projective Measurement in Quantum Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Khitrin, Anatoly; Lee, Jae-Seung

    2010-01-01

    We present experimental NMR demonstration of a scheme of reversible projective measurement, which allows extracting information on outcomes and probabilities of a projective measurement in a non-destructive way, with a minimal net effect on the quantum state of an ensemble. The scheme uses reversible dynamics and weak measurement of the intermediate state. The experimental system is an ensemble of 133Cs (S = 7/2) nuclei in a liquid-crystalline matrix.

  14. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  15. Description de deux usages non subordonnants de la forme « alors que »

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lafontaine Fanny

    2014-07-01

    Une fois la dichotomie entre emplois subordonnants et non subordonnants établie, nous affinerons la description de ces derniers en montrant avec une autre série de propriétés syntaxiques (tels que le statut paradigmatique/syntagmatique des énoncés, la relation d’ordre, la contiguïté… que ces énoncés relèvent de deux organisations grammaticales remarquables.

  16. [A case of shared psychotic disorder (folie à deux) with original aspects associated with cross-cultural elements].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuoco, Valentina; Colletti, Chiara; Anastasia, Annalisa; Weisz, Filippo; Bersani, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    Shared psychotic disorder (folie à deux) is a rare condition characterized by the transmission of delusional aspects from a patient (the "dominant partner") to another (the "submissive partner") linked to the first by a close relationship. We report the case of two Moroccan sisters who have experienced a combined delusional episode diagnosed as shared psychotic disorder. In these circumstances, assessment of symptoms from a cross-cultural perspective is a key factor for proper diagnostic evaluation.

  17. The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Xuanmin; Wu, Shengjun; Liu, Quanhui

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called classicality to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states that can be manipulated classically has a unit classicality, while a general ensemble has a classicality less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of an ensemble is essentially responsible for the security of quantum key distribution(QKD) protocols using that ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the quantumness of an ensemble used in a QKD protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key.

  18. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  19. Surveiller et classer : deux chantiers pour une recherche urbaine critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice Bardet

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Après avoir navigué entre deux continents, Bernard Jouve s’était donné pour ambition de développer, au sein du monde académique français, une pensée critique sur la ville inspirée de la recherche urbaine nord-américaine et de diffuser ces réflexions au sein du monde social. Ce goût pour les analyses critiques sur le « fait urbain » a constitué, sous son impulsion, un élément fédérateur pour l’équipe de recherche lyonnaise qu’il a dirigée au cours des dernières années. A travers des exemples tirés de nos travaux sur les classements de ville et la surveillance, on montre qu’il en demeure aujourd’hui encore un important fil conducteur.Bernard Jouve lived a rich experience between two different academic worlds. That is the principle reason why he aimed to develop a critical thought on urban changes and cities in the midst of French academic world. Further, he wanted to spread these analysis inspired by North-American urban research among actors playing a role in urban policies. For the research team that he managed in Lyon for these last years, this interest became, and remains, a unifier element.

  20. Deux modèles de fondation dans les Recherches logiques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Nenon

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Cette étude essaye d’établir qu’il y a deux notions très différentes de « fondation » à l’œuvre dans les Recherches logiques de Husserl. Dans la IIIème Recherche, où le terme est formellement introduit, lorsqu’il se demande quels sont les contenus qui peuvent exister d’une manière autonome (indépendants et lesquels peuvent exister uniquement en tant que moments d’autre chose (dépendants, Husserl suit ce que j’appelle un « modèle ontologique ». Selon ce modèle, le concret possède une priorité sur à l’abstrait qui est fondé en lui. Dans la VIème Recherche, en revanche, Husserl s’oriente principalement sur un « modèle gnoséologique » qui voit le complexe comme fondé sur ce qui est relativement simple, étant donné que les expériences d’ordre supérieur (telles les perceptions de types d’objets plus complexes sont « fondées sur » des expériences plus simples, bien qu’elles ne puissent pas y être réduites. L’exemple principal ici est celui des intuitions catégoriales : fondées sur les intuitions sensibles, elles n’y sont pas réductibles. Mais cette distinction entre deux sens différents du terme de « fondation » peut également nous aider à mieux comprendre de nombreuses thèses husserliennes plutôt controversées. Par exemple, elle peut nous permettre de mieux comprendre dans quelle mesure faire l’expérience d’un être humain comme un tout se fonde sur l’expérience d’un corps physique, et cela même si l’étant que nous rencontrons inclut à la fois des aspects corporels et des aspects spirituels – les deux étant vus, d’une manière essentielle, comme des moments de cette unique personne qui fait l’objet de notre expérience.This essay attempts to establish that there are two very different notions of “foundation” at work in Husserl’s Logical Investigation. In the Third Investigation where the term is formally introduced, Husserl is using what

  1. Folie a deux: a case report [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/SD4pSL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sobia Haqqi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Folie a deux, to date, remains a rare, yet a challenging psychiatric diagnosis. We discuss two cases that were identified in our out-patient clinics. One case was lost to follow up, while the other one showed improvement over time with appropriate management. Conclusion: As with any rare disorder, recognition and correct referral for rare diagnosis like folie a deux is of paramount importance.

  2. Mal du siècle et mal du lieu : bovarysme et romantisme mêlés dans les deux grands romans modernes de Flaubert

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Chardin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Cet article tente, à partir d’une comparaison d’ensemble entre les deux grands romans modernes de Flaubert, Madame Bovary et L’Éducation sentimentale, et d’une superposition d’exemples significatifs empruntés à chacun d’eux, de montrer que la série des contrastes qui viennent tout de suite à l’esprit ne doit pas dissimuler des variations subtiles autour des mêmes schémas narratifs et des mêmes paysages psychiques : aussi bien pour ce qui est du pôle négatif des ridicules (« bovarysme » impénitent de Frédéric et des infortunes (analogies entre les épreuves traversées, notamment en matière d’« éducation sentimentale » que pour ce qui est du pôle du positif — plus implicite chez Flaubert — incluant une sorte de principe de réhabilitation partielle des « premiers plans » et la permanence de tout un romantisme de la singularité, de la révolte, de l’élection par le malheur, de la passion, du désir.With a global comparison between Flaubert’s two chief modern novels, Madame Bovary and L’Éducation sentimentale, and a superposition of suggestive examples taken from both of them, this article intends to prove that the sequence of contrasts that firstly appear must not conceal the subtle variations on the same narrative patterns and the same psychological climates. We can notice this phenomena as well as for the negative poles of ridiculous features (Frederic’s impenitent “bovarysme” and misfortunes (analogies between the trials that have to be faced by the heroes — especially those of the “sentimental journey”, as for the positive pole — more implicit in Flaubert’s prose — that implies a kind of partial rehabilitation principle of the main characters, and the persistence of romanticism, a whole romanticism with singularity, revolt, election through unhappiness,  passion and desire.

  3. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method rebuilds the multivariate aspect of the forecast from...... the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...

  4. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast...... from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error...

  5. Multiscale macromolecular simulation: role of evolving ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singharoy, A; Joshi, H; Ortoleva, P J

    2012-10-22

    Multiscale analysis provides an algorithm for the efficient simulation of macromolecular assemblies. This algorithm involves the coevolution of a quasiequilibrium probability density of atomic configurations and the Langevin dynamics of spatial coarse-grained variables denoted order parameters (OPs) characterizing nanoscale system features. In practice, implementation of the probability density involves the generation of constant OP ensembles of atomic configurations. Such ensembles are used to construct thermal forces and diffusion factors that mediate the stochastic OP dynamics. Generation of all-atom ensembles at every Langevin time step is computationally expensive. Here, multiscale computation for macromolecular systems is made more efficient by a method that self-consistently folds in ensembles of all-atom configurations constructed in an earlier step, history, of the Langevin evolution. This procedure accounts for the temporal evolution of these ensembles, accurately providing thermal forces and diffusions. It is shown that efficiency and accuracy of the OP-based simulations is increased via the integration of this historical information. Accuracy improves with the square root of the number of historical timesteps included in the calculation. As a result, CPU usage can be decreased by a factor of 3-8 without loss of accuracy. The algorithm is implemented into our existing force-field based multiscale simulation platform and demonstrated via the structural dynamics of viral capsomers.

  6. Science, Linguistique, Littérature : trois disciplines, deux discours, une culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandrine SORLIN

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Cet article propose une réflexion sur les frontières épistémologiques et méthodologiques qui séparent trois disciplines universitaires. Portées par un discours propre à l’économie de leur discipline, la littérature et la science se pensent l’une l’autre comme « deux cultures » antinomiques. Or chaque discipline aborde son objet d’étude à partir d’un paradigme qui est culturellement déterminé. La concomitance de l’apparition des « théories du chaos » en science et du mouvement postmoderne en littérature dans les années 70 par exemple s’explique par leur appartenance à une même culture qui, à un moment donné, a opéré un changement de paradigme informant toutes les disciplines. La linguistique n’y a pas échappé ; pourtant le problème de ses frontières demeure. Nous mettrons en avant la transversalité de cette discipline, laquelle permet - entre autres - de rendre compte non seulement d’un style littéraire mais aussi de ce qu’on peut appeler la « rhétorique » ou la textualité de la science.This paper aims at considering the methodological and epistemological boundaries separating three academic disciplines. Underlain by a discourse that is proper to the economy of their discipline, literature and science regard each other as two opposite cultures. Yet each tackles its object of study through a culturally-determined paradigm. The simultaneous birth of chaos theory in science and postmodern aestheticism in literature in the 70s for instance can only be accounted for if we think of them as belonging to the same culture, which, at some point, brought about a change in paradigm that informed all disciplines. Linguistics underwent the same process. Yet the question of its boundaries remains. We will see to what extent linguistics can be seen as cross-disciplinary, in its study of the rhetoric of both literary and scientific textuality.  

  7. Cavity cooling of an ensemble spin system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Christopher J; Borneman, Troy W; Cory, David G

    2014-02-07

    We describe how sideband cooling techniques may be applied to large spin ensembles in magnetic resonance. Using the Tavis-Cummings model in the presence of a Rabi drive, we solve a Markovian master equation describing the joint spin-cavity dynamics to derive cooling rates as a function of ensemble size. Our calculations indicate that the coupled angular momentum subspaces of a spin ensemble containing roughly 10(11) electron spins may be polarized in a time many orders of magnitude shorter than the typical thermal relaxation time. The described techniques should permit efficient removal of entropy for spin-based quantum information processors and fast polarization of spin samples. The proposed application of a standard technique in quantum optics to magnetic resonance also serves to reinforce the connection between the two fields, which has recently begun to be explored in further detail due to the development of hybrid designs for manufacturing noise-resilient quantum devices.

  8. Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles.  The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...

  9. Characteristic polynomials in real Ginibre ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akemann, G; Phillips, M J [Department of Mathematical Sciences and BURSt Research Centre, Brunel University West London, UB8 3PH Uxbridge (United Kingdom); Sommers, H-J [Fachbereich Physik, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, 47048 Duisburg (Germany)], E-mail: Gernot.Akemann@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: Michael.Phillips@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: H.J.Sommers@uni-due.de

    2009-01-09

    We calculate the average of two characteristic polynomials for the real Ginibre ensemble of asymmetric random matrices, and its chiral counterpart. Considered as quadratic forms they determine a skew-symmetric kernel from which all complex eigenvalue correlations can be derived. Our results are obtained in a very simple fashion without going to an eigenvalue representation, and are completely new in the chiral case. They hold for Gaussian ensembles which are partly symmetric, with kernels given in terms of Hermite and Laguerre polynomials respectively, depending on an asymmetry parameter. This allows us to interpolate between the maximally asymmetric real Ginibre and the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, as well as their chiral counterparts. (fast track communication)

  10. On large deviations for ensembles of distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrychev, D. A.

    2013-11-01

    The paper is concerned with the large deviations problem in the Freidlin-Wentzell formulation without the assumption of the uniqueness of the solution to the equation involving white noise. In other words, it is assumed that for each \\varepsilon>0 the nonempty set \\mathscr P_\\varepsilon of weak solutions is not necessarily a singleton. Analogues of a number of concepts in the theory of large deviations are introduced for the set \\{\\mathscr P_\\varepsilon,\\,\\varepsilon>0\\}, hereafter referred to as an ensemble of distributions. The ensembles of weak solutions of an n-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes system and stochastic wave equation with power-law nonlinearity are shown to be uniformly exponentially tight. An idempotent Wiener process in a Hilbert space and idempotent partial differential equations are defined. The accumulation points in the sense of large deviations of the ensembles in question are shown to be weak solutions of the corresponding idempotent equations. Bibliography: 14 titles.

  11. Control and Synchronization of Neuron Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Jr-Shin; Ruths, Justin

    2011-01-01

    Synchronization of oscillations is a phenomenon prevalent in natural, social, and engineering systems. Controlling synchronization of oscillating systems is motivated by a wide range of applications from neurological treatment of Parkinson's disease to the design of neurocomputers. In this article, we study the control of an ensemble of uncoupled neuron oscillators described by phase models. We examine controllability of such a neuron ensemble for various phase models and, furthermore, study the related optimal control problems. In particular, by employing Pontryagin's maximum principle, we analytically derive optimal controls for spiking single- and two-neuron systems, and analyze the applicability of the latter to an ensemble system. Finally, we present a robust computational method for optimal control of spiking neurons based on pseudospectral approximations. The methodology developed here is universal to the control of general nonlinear phase oscillators.

  12. Circular β ensembles, CMV representation, characteristic polynomials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU ZhongGen

    2009-01-01

    In this note we first briefly review some recent progress in the study of the circular β ensemble on the unit circle, where 0 > 0 is a model parameter. In the special cases β = 1,2 and 4, this ensemble describes the joint probability density of eigenvalues of random orthogonal, unitary and sympletic matrices, respectively. For general β, Killip and Nenciu discovered a five-diagonal sparse matrix model, the CMV representation. This representation is new even in the case β = 2; and it has become a powerful tool for studying the circular β ensemble. We then give an elegant derivation for the moment identities of characteristic polynomials via the link with orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle.

  13. Delírio de infestação parasitária e folie à deux: relato de caso Delusional parasitic and folie à deux: case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quirino Cordeiro Júnior

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Quadros de transtorno psiquiátrico induzido (folie à deux são raros. Porém, sua prevalência pode ser de 5-25% nos casos de delírio de infestação parasitária. Relatamos o caso de uma paciente de 62 anos de idade com sintomas psicóticos que, há cerca de 15 anos, está vivendo com sua irmã mais nova. Como a paciente não estava mais apresentando sintomas, sua irmã decidiu não administrar-lhe mais antipsicótico. A paciente voltou a apresentar quadro psicótico marcado por delírio de infestação parasitária, acompanhado por alucinações visuais. Sua irmã, que não tinha história de qualquer transtorno psiquiátrico prévio, passou a acreditar que realmente a paciente estava infestada e que ela mesma fora contaminada. Esse relato de caso objetiva discutir a associação existente entre folie à deux e delírio de infestação parasitária.Shared psychiatric disorder (folie à deux is a rare condition. But its prevalence can be 5-25% in patients with delusional parasitic infestation. We report the a case of a 62 years-old female with psychotic symptoms. For 15 years, she has lived with her younger sister. Since the patient was well-controled, her sister interrupted her antipsychotic drug administration. So, the patient initiated delusional parasitic infestation accompanied by visual hallucinations. Her sister, who did not have psychiatric history, initiated to believe that the patient was really infested. Moreover, she started to believe that was infested by the patient. This case report aims to discuss the relation between folie à deux and delusional parasitic infestation.

  14. Ensemble Enabled Weighted PageRank

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Dongsheng; Hu, Renjun; Duan, Liang; Ma, Shuai

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes our solution for WSDM Cup 2016. Ranking the query independent importance of scholarly articles is a critical and challenging task, due to the heterogeneity and dynamism of entities involved. Our approach is called Ensemble enabled Weighted PageRank (EWPR). To do this, we first propose Time-Weighted PageRank that extends PageRank by introducing a time decaying factor. We then develop an ensemble method to assemble the authorities of the heterogeneous entities involved in scholarly articles. We finally propose to use external data sources to further improve the ranking accuracy. Our experimental study shows that our EWPR is a good choice for ranking scholarly articles.

  15. Ensemble Eclipse: A Process for Prefab Development Environment for the Ensemble Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallick, Michael N.; Mittman, David S.; Shams, Khawaja, S.; Bachmann, Andrew G.; Ludowise, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    This software simplifies the process of having to set up an Eclipse IDE programming environment for the members of the cross-NASA center project, Ensemble. It achieves this by assembling all the necessary add-ons and custom tools/preferences. This software is unique in that it allows developers in the Ensemble Project (approximately 20 to 40 at any time) across multiple NASA centers to set up a development environment almost instantly and work on Ensemble software. The software automatically has the source code repositories and other vital information and settings included. The Eclipse IDE is an open-source development framework. The NASA (Ensemble-specific) version of the software includes Ensemble-specific plug-ins as well as settings for the Ensemble project. This software saves developers the time and hassle of setting up a programming environment, making sure that everything is set up in the correct manner for Ensemble development. Existing software (i.e., standard Eclipse) requires an intensive setup process that is both time-consuming and error prone. This software is built once by a single user and tested, allowing other developers to simply download and use the software

  16. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  17. Caractérisation Numérique et Expérimentale des Interactions entre deux Hydroliennes

    OpenAIRE

    Mycek, Paul; Gaurier, Benoît; Germain, Grégory; LOTHODÉ, Corentin; Pinon, Grégory; Rivoalen, Elie

    2013-01-01

    National audience; L'implantation et le développement de fermes d'hydroliennes sont soumis à la compréhension des effets d'interaction entre de telles machines. En nous inspirant de suggestions a priori sur la disposition de fermes de convertisseurs d'énergie marine, nous nous proposons de mettre en évidence les interactions entre deux hydroliennes à axe horizontal, en pleine eau. Des essais expérimentaux ont été réalisés dans le canal à houle et courant de l'IFREMER à Boulogne-sur-Mer, sur d...

  18. Semaine d'Etude Mathématiques et Entreprises 1 : Deux problèmes sur les parcs solaires.

    OpenAIRE

    Aguillon, Nina; Benzekry, Sebastien; Bettinelli, Jérémie; Bochard, Pierre; Bonnotte, Nicolas; Delgado, Gabriel; Imbert-Gérard, Lise-Marie; Lepoultier, Guilhem; Navoret, Laurent; Parini, Enea

    2011-01-01

    Le premier problème consiste à étudier le placement quasi-optimal de parcs de panneaux solaires dans une région géographique définie. Si on suppose que la puissance d'un parc est directement proportionnelle à sa surface, on voudra maximiser la somme des surfaces des parcs. Néanmoins, la construction de tels parcs solaires est souvent soumise à des contraintes légales portant sur la puissance maximale de chaque parc et sur la distance entre deux parcs. Les idées proposées dans ce rapport tiend...

  19. Amours ovidiennes chez Poussin : à propos de deux tableaux inspirés des Métamorphoses

    OpenAIRE

    Hourquet, Jean-Louis

    2016-01-01

    Des deux versions du fameux Et in Arcadia ego jusqu’à son ultime composition, Apollon amoureux de Daphné, en passant par L’enlèvement des Sabines, il est évident que le plus grand peintre français classique ne cessa de trouver des sujets dans l’histoire romaine comme dans ce qu’on appelait alors la Fable, telles qu’elles nous ont été respectivement transmises par Tite-Live et Ovide, ou encore dans Virgile : ce furent là ses différents auteurs de prédilection. Certes, les avis divergent quant ...

  20. Contribution a letude chimique et biologique de deux plantes medicinales de la région ouest dalgerie

    OpenAIRE

    YOUNES, KAWTHER

    2015-01-01

    Dans le but de valoriser les plantes algériennes dans la recherche de nouvelles molécules biologiquement actives, deux plantes de la région de Tlemcen : Artemisia arborescensL. et Cardaria draba (L.) Desv. ont été testées pour un criblage chimique et biologique. Les résultats obtenus au cours de ce travail complètent et confortent une démarche scientifique de plus en plus fréquente : l’établissement de relations entre l’utilisation empirique de plantes par les populations, et la c...

  1. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  2. Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jingyi Zhang

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a canonical ensemble model for the black hole quantum tunnelling radiation is introduced. In this model the probability distribution function corresponding to the emission shell is calculated to second order. The formula of pressure and internal energy of the thermal system is modified, and the fundamental equation of thermodynamics is also discussed.

  3. A Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    A new ensemble filter that allows for the uncertainty in the prior distribution is proposed and tested. The filter relies on the conditional Gaussian distribution of the state given the model-error and predictability-error covariance matrices. The latter are treated as random matrices and updated in a hierarchical Bayes scheme along with the state. The (hyper)prior distribution of the covariance matrices is assumed to be inverse Wishart. The new Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Filter (HBEF) assimilates ensemble members as generalized observations and allows ordinary observations to influence the covariances. The actual probability distribution of the ensemble members is allowed to be different from the true one. An approximation that leads to a practicable analysis algorithm is proposed. The new filter is studied in numerical experiments with a doubly stochastic one-variable model of "truth". The model permits the assessment of the variance of the truth and the true filtering error variance at each time instance. The HBEF is shown to outperform the EnKF and the HEnKF by Myrseth and Omre (2010) in a wide range of filtering regimes in terms of performance of its primary and secondary filters.

  4. Locally Accessible Information from Multipartite Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Wei

    2009-01-01

    We present a universal Holevo-like upper bound on the locally accessible information for arbitrary multipartite ensembles.This bound allows us to analyze the indistinguishability of a set of orthogonal states under local operations and classical communication.We also derive the upper bound for the capacity of distributed dense coding with multipartite senders and multipartite receivers.

  5. Statistical theory of hierarchical avalanche ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Olemskoi, Alexander I.

    1999-01-01

    The statistical ensemble of avalanche intensities is considered to investigate diffusion in ultrametric space of hierarchically subordinated avalanches. The stationary intensity distribution and the steady-state current are obtained. The critical avalanche intensity needed to initiate the global avalanche formation is calculated depending on noise intensity. The large time asymptotic for the probability of the global avalanche appearance is derived.

  6. Eigenstate Gibbs ensemble in integrable quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandy, Sourav; Sen, Arnab; Das, Arnab; Dhar, Abhishek

    2016-12-01

    The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis conjectures that for a thermodynamically large system in one of its energy eigenstates, the reduced density matrix describing any finite subsystem is determined solely by a set of relevant conserved quantities. In a chaotic quantum system, only the energy is expected to play that role and hence eigenstates appear locally thermal. Integrable systems, on the other hand, possess an extensive number of such conserved quantities and therefore the reduced density matrix requires specification of all the corresponding parameters (generalized Gibbs ensemble). However, here we show by unbiased statistical sampling of the individual eigenstates with a given finite energy density that the local description of an overwhelming majority of these states of even such an integrable system is actually Gibbs-like, i.e., requires only the energy density of the eigenstate. Rare eigenstates that cannot be represented by the Gibbs ensemble can also be sampled efficiently by our method and their local properties are then shown to be described by appropriately truncated generalized Gibbs ensembles. We further show that the presence of these rare eigenstates differentiates the model from the chaotic case and leads to the system being described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble at long time under a unitary dynamics following a sudden quench, even when the initial state is a typical (Gibbs-like) eigenstate of the prequench Hamiltonian.

  7. Marking up lattice QCD configurations and ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Coddington, P; Maynard, C M; Pleiter, D; Yoshié, T

    2007-01-01

    QCDml is an XML-based markup language designed for sharing QCD configurations and ensembles world-wide via the International Lattice Data Grid (ILDG). Based on the latest release, we present key ingredients of the QCDml in order to provide some starting points for colleagues in this community to markup valuable configurations and submit them to the ILDG.

  8. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  9. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  10. Space Applications for Ensemble Detection and Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Detection is both a measurement technique and analysis tool. Like a prism that separates light into spectral bands, an ensemble detector mixes a signal with...

  11. Jane Eyre between the Wars Jane Eyre entre les deux guerres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patsy Stoneman

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available L’un des héritages que Charlotte Brontë laissa derrière elle avec son roman Jane Eyre, c’est une trame qui fut indéfiniment recyclée dans le roman féminin. Une femme jeune, isolée et désargentée rencontre un homme plus riche et plus âgé qu’elle, au tempérament morose et au passé mystérieux dans lequel se trouve une épouse démente et mauvaise. Dans le monde de Charlotte Brontë, la société offre peu d’alternatives au mariage pour une femme qui ne peut compter que sur elle-même pour subvenir à ses besoins, et même le dénouement tranché de Jane Eyre n’est qu’une version plus égalitaire du mariage traditionnel. Sa structure triangulaire, toutefois, s’est avérée fertile pour les écrivains qui examinèrent les relations hommes/femmes dans des époques sociales ultérieures. Dans l’Angleterre d’entre-deux-guerres, les femmes de la classe moyenne étaient, comme le formule Virginia Woolf, « on the bridge » entre la maison privée et le monde professionnel. La plupart des obstacles légaux qui leur barraient l’accès à l’instruction et à l’emploi disparaissaient, mais l’éthos de la domesticité imprimait encore sa marque sur les attentes émotionnelles des femmes. Dans cet article, j’examine quatre romans qui utilisent l’intrigue de Jane Eyre afin de tracer les contours des possibilités qui s’offraient aux femmes à cette époque. Il s’agit de Vera d’Elizabeth von Arnim (1921, The Weather in the Streets de Rosamond Lehmann (1936, South Riding de Winifred Holtby (1936 et Rebecca de Daphne du Maurier (1938. La distinction que Tania Modleski dresse entre la romance (‘romance’ – dans laquelle la peur ou le dégoût initial de l’héroïne pour le héros se transforme en amour – et le gothique (‘gothic’ – où le processus est inverse – souligne que ces romans modernes ne peuvent envisager autre chose qu’un dénouement gothique à une situation à l’origine romantique

  12. Proposition d'attribution de deux contrats pour la fourniture de fils supraconducteurs destines aux aimants de correction du LHC

    CERN Document Server

    1999-01-01

    Le présent document concerne l'attribution de deux contrats pour la fourniture de fils supraconducteurs émaillés de quatre types différents (fil 1, fil 2, fil 3 et fil 4) destinés aux aimants de correction du LHC. Un appel d'offres (IT-2649/LHC/LHC) a été adressé le 13 juillet 1999 à quatre entreprises dans quatre Etats membres, trois entreprises au Japon et trois entreprises aux Etats-Unis. A la date de clôture, le CERN avait reçu cinq offres. Il est demandé au Comité des finances d'approuver la négociation de deux contrats: 1. d'une part avec IGC (USA) pour la fourniture de fils supraconducteurs 1 et 2 destinés aux aimants de correction du LHC pour un prix total net de 996 074 dollars des Etats-Unis, non révisable, avec une option pour la fourniture de fils 1 et 2 supplémentaires représentant 20% de la quantité initiale pour un prix total net de 199 215 dollars des Etats-Unis, révisable, ce qui porte le montant total à 1 195 289 dollars US, révisable pour l'option. Au taux de change in...

  13. Cross-correlation of two detectors in a nuclear reactor; Intercorrelation de deux detecteurs dans un reacteur nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfes, A.; Beliard, L.; Cazemajou, J.; Froelicher, B. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1967-07-01

    Auto and cross-correlation functions of signals given by neutron detectors situated in a subcritical nuclear reactor are determined by a numerical method. Values of the prompt neutrons decay constant obtained by means of the autocorrelation function of each detector and the cross-correlation function of the two detectors are compared to the reference value given by a classical pulsed neutrons measurement. Agreement between results seems to be satisfactory. (authors) [French] Les fonctions d'autocorrelation et d'intercorrelation des signaux issus de deux detecteurs de neutrons places dans un reacteur nucleaire sous critique sont determinees par une methode numerique. On compare les valeurs de la constante de decroissance des neutrons prompts donnees par les fonctions d'autocorrelation de chaque detecteur et la fonction d'intercorrelation des deux detecteurs au resultat de reference fourni par une manipulation dite de 'neutrons pulses'. L'accord entre les resultats parait satisfaisant. (auteurs)

  14. Ensembles of signal transduction models using Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Sang Ok; Chakrabarti, Anirikh; Varner, Jeffrey D

    2010-07-01

    Mathematical modeling of complex gene expression programs is an emerging tool for understanding disease mechanisms. However, identification of large models sometimes requires training using qualitative, conflicting or even contradictory data sets. One strategy to address this challenge is to estimate experimentally constrained model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. In this study, we used Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs) to identify a family of proof-of-concept signal transduction models. POETs integrate Simulated Annealing (SA) with Pareto optimality to identify models near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We modeled a prototypical-signaling network using mass-action kinetics within an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework (64 ODEs in total). The true model was used to generate synthetic immunoblots from which the POET algorithm identified the 117 unknown model parameters. POET generated an ensemble of signaling models, which collectively exhibited population-like behavior. For example, scaled gene expression levels were approximately normally distributed over the ensemble following the addition of extracellular ligand. Also, the ensemble recovered robust and fragile features of the true model, despite significant parameter uncertainty. Taken together, these results suggest that experimentally constrained model ensembles could capture qualitatively important network features without exact parameter information.

  15. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  16. The role of ensemble post-processing for modeling the ensemble tail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2016-04-01

    The past decades the numerical weather prediction community has witnessed a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecast and state estimation (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Buizza et al., 2008), in an attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated with initial-condition and model errors. An important benefit of a probabilistic framework is the improved prediction of extreme events. However, one may ask to what extent such model estimates contain information on the occurrence probability of extreme events and how this information can be optimally extracted. Different approaches have been proposed and applied on real-world systems which, based on extreme value theory, allow the estimation of extreme-event probabilities conditional on forecasts and state estimates (Ferro, 2007; Friederichs, 2010). Using ensemble predictions generated with a model of low dimensionality, a thorough investigation is presented quantifying the change of predictability of extreme events associated with ensemble post-processing and other influencing factors including the finite ensemble size, lead time and model assumption and the use of different covariates (ensemble mean, maximum, spread...) for modeling the tail distribution. Tail modeling is performed by deriving extreme-quantile estimates using peak-over-threshold representation (generalized Pareto distribution) or quantile regression. Common ensemble post-processing methods aim to improve mostly the ensemble mean and spread of a raw forecast (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). Conditional tail modeling, on the other hand, is a post-processing in itself, focusing on the tails only. Therefore, it is unclear how applying ensemble post-processing prior to conditional tail modeling impacts the skill of extreme-event predictions. This work is investigating this question in details. Buizza, Leutbecher, and Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. R. Meteorol

  17. Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reason L. Machete

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by

  18. Dysonian dynamics of the Ginibre ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burda, Zdzislaw; Grela, Jacek; Nowak, Maciej A; Tarnowski, Wojciech; Warchoł, Piotr

    2014-09-05

    We study the time evolution of Ginibre matrices whose elements undergo Brownian motion. The non-Hermitian character of the Ginibre ensemble binds the dynamics of eigenvalues to the evolution of eigenvectors in a nontrivial way, leading to a system of coupled nonlinear equations resembling those for turbulent systems. We formulate a mathematical framework allowing simultaneous description of the flow of eigenvalues and eigenvectors, and we unravel a hidden dynamics as a function of a new complex variable, which in the standard description is treated as a regulator only. We solve the evolution equations for large matrices and demonstrate that the nonanalytic behavior of the Green's functions is associated with a shock wave stemming from a Burgers-like equation describing correlations of eigenvectors. We conjecture that the hidden dynamics that we observe for the Ginibre ensemble is a general feature of non-Hermitian random matrix models and is relevant to related physical applications.

  19. Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Guerra, J A; Uritsky, V M

    2015-01-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte Carlo-type algorithm by applying a decision threshold $P_{th}$ to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the probabilities and events time series from 13 recent solar active regions (2012 - 2014), we found that a linear combination of probabilities can improve both probabilistic and categorical forecasts. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of $P_{th}$. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights ...

  20. Rotationally invariant ensembles of integrable matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzbashyan, Emil A.; Shastry, B. Sriram; Scaramazza, Jasen A.

    2016-05-01

    We construct ensembles of random integrable matrices with any prescribed number of nontrivial integrals and formulate integrable matrix theory (IMT)—a counterpart of random matrix theory (RMT) for quantum integrable models. A type-M family of integrable matrices consists of exactly N -M independent commuting N ×N matrices linear in a real parameter. We first develop a rotationally invariant parametrization of such matrices, previously only constructed in a preferred basis. For example, an arbitrary choice of a vector and two commuting Hermitian matrices defines a type-1 family and vice versa. Higher types similarly involve a random vector and two matrices. The basis-independent formulation allows us to derive the joint probability density for integrable matrices, similar to the construction of Gaussian ensembles in the RMT.

  1. Rotationally invariant ensembles of integrable matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzbashyan, Emil A; Shastry, B Sriram; Scaramazza, Jasen A

    2016-05-01

    We construct ensembles of random integrable matrices with any prescribed number of nontrivial integrals and formulate integrable matrix theory (IMT)-a counterpart of random matrix theory (RMT) for quantum integrable models. A type-M family of integrable matrices consists of exactly N-M independent commuting N×N matrices linear in a real parameter. We first develop a rotationally invariant parametrization of such matrices, previously only constructed in a preferred basis. For example, an arbitrary choice of a vector and two commuting Hermitian matrices defines a type-1 family and vice versa. Higher types similarly involve a random vector and two matrices. The basis-independent formulation allows us to derive the joint probability density for integrable matrices, similar to the construction of Gaussian ensembles in the RMT.

  2. Quantum data compression of a qubit ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozema, Lee A; Mahler, Dylan H; Hayat, Alex; Turner, Peter S; Steinberg, Aephraim M

    2014-10-17

    Data compression is a ubiquitous aspect of modern information technology, and the advent of quantum information raises the question of what types of compression are feasible for quantum data, where it is especially relevant given the extreme difficulty involved in creating reliable quantum memories. We present a protocol in which an ensemble of quantum bits (qubits) can in principle be perfectly compressed into exponentially fewer qubits. We then experimentally implement our algorithm, compressing three photonic qubits into two. This protocol sheds light on the subtle differences between quantum and classical information. Furthermore, since data compression stores all of the available information about the quantum state in fewer physical qubits, it could allow for a vast reduction in the amount of quantum memory required to store a quantum ensemble, making even today's limited quantum memories far more powerful than previously recognized.

  3. Eigenstate Gibbs Ensemble in Integrable Quantum Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Sourav; Das, Arnab; Dhar, Abhishek

    2016-01-01

    The Eigenstate Thermalization Hypothesis implies that for a thermodynamically large system in one of its eigenstates, the reduced density matrix describing any finite subsystem is determined solely by a set of {\\it relevant} conserved quantities. In a generic system, only the energy plays that role and hence eigenstates appear locally thermal. Integrable systems, on the other hand, possess an extensive number of such conserved quantities and hence the reduced density matrix requires specification of an infinite number of parameters (Generalized Gibbs Ensemble). However, here we show by unbiased statistical sampling of the individual eigenstates with a given finite energy density, that the local description of an overwhelming majority of these states of even such an integrable system is actually Gibbs-like, i.e. requires only the energy density of the eigenstate. Rare eigenstates that cannot be represented by the Gibbs ensemble can also be sampled efficiently by our method and their local properties are then s...

  4. Entanglement in a Solid State Spin Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Simmons, Stephanie; Riemann, Helge; Abrosimov, Nikolai V; Becker, Peter; Pohl, Hans-Joachim; Thewalt, Mike L W; Itoh, Kohei M; Morton, John J L

    2010-01-01

    Entanglement is the quintessential quantum phenomenon and a necessary ingredient in most emerging quantum technologies, including quantum repeaters, quantum information processing (QIP) and the strongest forms of quantum cryptography. Spin ensembles, such as those in liquid state nuclear magnetic resonance, have been powerful in the development of quantum control methods, however, these demonstrations contained no entanglement and ultimately constitute classical simulations of quantum algorithms. Here we report the on-demand generation of entanglement between an ensemble of electron and nuclear spins in isotopically engineered phosphorus-doped silicon. We combined high field/low temperature electron spin resonance (3.4 T, 2.9 K) with hyperpolarisation of the 31P nuclear spin to obtain an initial state of sufficient purity to create a non-classical, inseparable state. The state was verified using density matrix tomography based on geometric phase gates, and had a fidelity of 98% compared with the ideal state a...

  5. Face Recognition using Optimal Representation Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Hanxi; Gao, Yongsheng

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the face recognizers based on linear representations have been shown to deliver state-of-the-art performance. In real-world applications, however, face images usually suffer from expressions, disguises and random occlusions. The problematic facial parts undermine the validity of the linear-subspace assumption and thus the recognition performance deteriorates significantly. In this work, we address the problem in a learning-inference-mixed fashion. By observing that the linear-subspace assumption is more reliable on certain face patches rather than on the holistic face, some Bayesian Patch Representations (BPRs) are randomly generated and interpreted according to the Bayes' theory. We then train an ensemble model over the patch-representations by minimizing the empirical risk w.r.t the "leave-one-out margins". The obtained model is termed Optimal Representation Ensemble (ORE), since it guarantees the optimality from the perspective of Empirical Risk Minimization. To handle the unknown patterns in tes...

  6. Support Vector Machine Ensemble Based on Genetic Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Ye; YIN Ru-po; CAI Yun-ze; XU Xiao-ming

    2006-01-01

    Support vector machines (SVMs) have been introduced as effective methods for solving classification problems.However, due to some limitations in practical applications,their generalization performance is sometimes far from the expected level. Therefore, it is meaningful to study SVM ensemble learning. In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm based ensemble learning method, namely Direct Genetic Ensemble (DGE), is proposed. DGE adopts the predictive accuracy of ensemble as the fitness function and searches a good ensemble from the ensemble space. In essence, DGE is also a selective ensemble learning method because the base classifiers of the ensemble are selected according to the solution of genetic algorithm. In comparison with other ensemble learning methods, DGE works on a higher level and is more direct. Different strategies of constructing diverse base classifiers can be utilized in DGE.Experimental results show that SVM ensembles constructed by DGE can achieve better performance than single SVMs,bagged and boosted SVM ensembles. In addition, some valuable conclusions are obtained.

  7. Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Aristoff, David

    2016-01-01

    We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a Markov state model (MSM), the MSM can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.

  8. Statistical Ensemble Theory of Gompertz Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuya Yamano

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble formulation for the Gompertz growth function within the framework of statistical mechanics is presented, where the two growth parameters are assumed to be statistically distributed. The growth can be viewed as a self-referential process, which enables us to use the Bose-Einstein statistics picture. The analytical entropy expression pertain to the law can be obtained in terms of the growth velocity distribution as well as the Gompertz function itself for the whole process.

  9. Quantum Data Compression of a Qubit Ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Rozema, Lee A.; Mahler, Dylan H.; Hayat, Alex; Turner, Peter S.; Steinberg, Aephraim M.

    2014-01-01

    Data compression is a ubiquitous aspect of modern information technology, and the advent of quantum information raises the question of what types of compression are feasible for quantum data, where it is especially relevant given the extreme difficulty involved in creating reliable quantum memories. We present a protocol in which an ensemble of quantum bits (qubits) can in principle be perfectly compressed into exponentially fewer qubits. We then experimentally implement our algorithm, compre...

  10. Staying Thermal with Hartree Ensemble Approximations

    CERN Document Server

    Salle, M; Vink, Jeroen C

    2000-01-01

    Using Hartree ensemble approximations to compute the real time dynamics of scalar fields in 1+1 dimension, we find that with suitable initial conditions, approximate thermalization is achieved much faster than found in our previous work. At large times, depending on the interaction strength and temperature, the particle distribution slowly changes: the Bose-Einstein distribution of the particle densities develops classical features. We also discuss variations of our method which are numerically more efficient.

  11. Spatially Coupled Ensembles Universally Achieve Capacity under Belief Propagation

    CERN Document Server

    Kudekar, Shrinivas; Urbanke, Ruediger

    2012-01-01

    We investigate spatially coupled code ensembles. For transmission over the binary erasure channel, it was recently shown that spatial coupling increases the belief propagation threshold of the ensemble to essentially the maximum a-priori threshold of the underlying component ensemble. This explains why convolutional LDPC ensembles, originally introduced by Felstrom and Zigangirov, perform so well over this channel. We show that the equivalent result holds true for transmission over general binary-input memoryless output-symmetric channels. More precisely, given a desired error probability and a gap to capacity, we can construct a spatially coupled ensemble which fulfills these constraints universally on this class of channels under belief propagation decoding. In fact, most codes in that ensemble have that property. The quantifier universal refers to the single ensemble/code which is good for all channels but we assume that the channel is known at the receiver. The key technical result is a proof that under b...

  12. Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radisa Jovanovic

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.

  13. Ensemble transform sensitivity method for adaptive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Xie, Yuanfu; Wang, Hongli; Chen, Dehui; Toth, Zoltan

    2016-01-01

    The Ensemble Transform (ET) method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment. It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace. In this paper, a new ET-based sensitivity (ETS) method, which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction, is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations. ETS is a first order approximation of the ET; it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix, increasing computational efficiency (60%-80% reduction in computational cost). An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described. Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene (2011) case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison. The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar. However, ETS is much more efficient, particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.

  14. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  15. Dynamic Analogue Initialization for Ensemble Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Shan; RONG Xingyao; LIU Yun; LIU Zhengyu; Klaus FRAEDRICH

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the initialization of ensemble numerical forecasting:Dynamic Analogue Initialization (DAI).DAI assumes that the best model state trajectories for the past provide the initial conditions for the best forecasts in the future.As such,DAI performs the ensemble forecast using the best analogues from a full size ensemble.As a pilot study,the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models were used to test DAI's effectiveness independently.Results showed that DAI can improve the forecast significantly.Especially in lower-dimensional systems,DAI can reduce the forecast RMSE by ~50% compared to the Monte Carlo forecast (MC).This improvement is because DAI is able to recognize the direction of the analysis error through the embedding process and therefore selects those good trajectories with reduced initial error.Meanwhile,a potential improvement of DAI is also proposed,and that is to find the optimal range of embedding time based on the error's growing speed.

  16. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-12-03

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  17. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathan [Washington U., St. Louis; Bazavov, Alexei [Brookhaven; Bernard, Claude [Washington U., St. Louis; DeTar, Carleton [Utah U.; Foley, Justin [Utah U.; Gottlieb, Steven [Indiana U.; Heller, Urs M. [APS, New York; Hetrick, J. E. [U. Pacific, Stockton; Komijani, Javad [Washington U., St. Louis; Laiho, Jack [Syracuse U.; Levkova, Ludmila [Utah U.; Oktay, M. B. [Utah U.; Sugar, Robert [UC, Santa Barbara; Toussaint, Doug [Arizona U.; Van de Water, Ruth S. [Fermilab; Zhou, Ran [Fermilab

    2014-11-14

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  18. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Roh

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF, the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  19. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-05-08

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  20. Interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthaeus, W.H.; Goldstein, M.L.; King, J.H.

    1985-04-01

    A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

  1. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2014-01-01

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  2. On large deviations for ensembles of distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrychev, D A [Moscow State Institute of Radio-Engineering, Electronics and Automation (Technical University), Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-30

    The paper is concerned with the large deviations problem in the Freidlin-Wentzell formulation without the assumption of the uniqueness of the solution to the equation involving white noise. In other words, it is assumed that for each ε>0 the nonempty set P{sub ε} of weak solutions is not necessarily a singleton. Analogues of a number of concepts in the theory of large deviations are introduced for the set (P{sub ε}, ε>0), hereafter referred to as an ensemble of distributions. The ensembles of weak solutions of an n-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes system and stochastic wave equation with power-law nonlinearity are shown to be uniformly exponentially tight. An idempotent Wiener process in a Hilbert space and idempotent partial differential equations are defined. The accumulation points in the sense of large deviations of the ensembles in question are shown to be weak solutions of the corresponding idempotent equations. Bibliography: 14 titles.

  3. Cavity Cooling for Ensemble Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cory, David

    2015-03-01

    Recently there has been a surge of interest in exploring thermodynamics in quantum systems where dissipative effects can be exploited to perform useful work. One such example is quantum state engineering where a quantum state of high purity may be prepared by dissipative coupling through a cold thermal bath. This has been used to great effect in many quantum systems where cavity cooling has been used to cool mechanical modes to their quantum ground state through coupling to the resolved sidebands of a high-Q resonator. In this talk we explore how these techniques may be applied to an ensemble spin system. This is an attractive process as it potentially allows for parallel remove of entropy from a large number of quantum systems, enabling an ensemble to achieve a polarization greater than thermal equilibrium, and potentially on a time scale much shorter than thermal relaxation processes. This is achieved by the coupled angular momentum subspaces of the ensemble behaving as larger effective spins, overcoming the weak individual coupling of individual spins to a microwave resonator. Cavity cooling is shown to cool each of these subspaces to their respective ground state, however an additional algorithmic step or dissipative process is required to couple between these subspaces and enable cooling to the full ground state of the joint system.

  4. Les infections à Pseudomonas aeruginosa au service des maladies infectieuses du CHU YO, Burkina Faso: à propos deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamoudou, Savadogo; Lassina, Dao; Fla, Koueta

    2015-01-01

    Nous rapportons deux cas d'infection à Pseudomonas aeruginosa: un cas de méningite et un cas d'infection urinaire. Les auteurs rappellent qu’à côté des étiologies classiques des méningites et des infections urinaires, des germes résistants comme Pseudomonas aeruginosa peuvent être responsables d'infections à localisation méningées et urinaires et dont il faut connaître pour une bonne prise en charge. Le traitement de ces infections requiert un antibiogramme au regard de la grande capacité de résistance de Pseudomonas aeruginosa en milieu hospitalier. La limitation des gestes invasifs et l'application rigoureuse des mesures de prévention des infections en milieu hospitalier contribueront à lutter efficacement contre ces infections en milieu de soins. PMID:26491521

  5. Ensemble data assimilation with an adjusted forecast spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Rainwater

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble data assimilation typically evolves an ensemble of model states whose spread is intended to represent the algorithm's uncertainty about the state of the physical system that produces the data. The analysis phase treats the forecast ensemble as a random sample from a background distribution, and it transforms the ensemble according to the background and observation error statistics to provide an appropriate sample for the next forecast phase. We find that in the presence of model nonlinearity and model error, it can be fruitful to rescale the ensemble spread prior to the forecast and then reverse this rescaling after the forecast. We call this approach forecast spread adjustment, which we discuss and test in this article using an ensemble Kalman filter and a 2005 model due to Lorenz. We argue that forecast spread adjustment provides a tunable parameter, that is, complementary to covariance inflation, which cumulatively increases ensemble spread to compensate for underestimation of uncertainty. We also show that as the adjustment parameter approaches zero, the filter approaches the extended Kalman filter if the ensemble size is sufficiently large. We find that varying the adjustment parameter can significantly reduce analysis and forecast errors in some cases. We evaluate how the improvement provided by forecast spread adjustment depends on ensemble size, observation error and model error. Our results indicate that the technique is most effective for small ensembles, small observation error and large model error, though the effectiveness depends significantly on the nature of the model error.

  6. De praeceptis ferendis: good practice in multi-model ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kioutsioukis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ensembles of air quality models have been formally and empirically shown to outperform single models in many cases. Evidence suggests that ensemble error is reduced when the members form a diverse and accurate ensemble. Diversity and accuracy are hence two factors that should be taken care of while designing ensembles in order for them to provide better predictions. There exists a trade-off between diversity and accuracy for which one cannot be gained without expenses of the other. Theoretical aspects like the bias-variance-covariance decomposition and the accuracy-diversity decomposition are linked together and support the importance of creating ensemble that incorporates both the elements. Hence, the common practice of unconditional averaging of models without prior manipulation limits the advantages of ensemble averaging. We demonstrate the importance of ensemble accuracy and diversity through an inter-comparison of ensemble products for which a sound mathematical framework exists, and provide specific recommendations for model selection and weighting for multi model ensembles. To this end we have devised statistical tools that can be used for diagnostic evaluation of ensemble modelling products, complementing existing operational methods.

  7. Localisations particulières de l'histiocytose langerhansienne chez l'enfant, scapula et pubis: à propos de deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atarraf, Karima; Chater, Lamiae; Arroud, Mounir; Afifi, My Abderrahman

    2014-01-01

    L'histiocytose X ou histiocytose de Langerhans est une maladie de l'enfant et de l'adulte jeune. Dont l'incidence est estimée à 1 cas sur 200 000 par an. C'est une maladie au spectre clinique très divers, allant du simple granulome éosinophile à la forme grave multiviscérale avec dysfonctionnement d'organe. Les auteurs rapportent deux observations concernant deux localisations assez rares de cette maladie, au niveau du pubis chez le premier enfant, et au niveau de la scapula chez le deuxième. Chez nos deux malades la localisation était focale, et l’évolution était favorable. A travers ces deux observations, nous allons essayer de décrire les différents aspects cliniques et radiologiques et discuter a travers une revue de littérature les démarches diagnostiques et thérapeutiques de cette maladie rare. PMID:25478049

  8. A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Fei; ZHU Jiang

    2010-01-01

    The initial ensemble perturbations for an ensemble data assimilation system are expected to reasonably sample model uncertainty at the time of analysis to further reduce analysis uncertainty.Therefore,the careful choice of an initial ensemble perturbation method that dynamically cycles ensemble perturbations is required for the optimal performance of the system.Based on the multivariate empirical onhogonal function(MEOF)method,a new ensemble initialization scheme is developed to generate balanced initial perturbations for the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)data assimilation,with a reasonable consideration of the physical relationships between different model variables.The scheme is applied in assimilation experiments with a global spectral atmospheric model and with real observations.The proposed perturbation method is compared to the commonly used method of spatially-correlated random perturbations.The comparisons show that the model uncertainties prior to the first analysis time,which are forecasted from the balanced ensemble initial fields,maintain a much more reasonable spread and a more accurate forecast error covariance than those from the randomly perturbed initial fields.The analysis results are further improved by the balanced ensemble initialization scheme due to more accurate background information.Also,a 20-day continuous assimilation experiment shows that the ensemble spreads for each model variable are still retained in reasonable ranges without considering additional perturbations or inflations during the assimilation cycles,while the ensemble spreads from the randomly perturbed initialization scheme decrease and collapse rapidly.

  9. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  10. Supervised Ensemble Classification of Kepler Variable Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Bass, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    Variable star analysis and classification is an important task in the understanding of stellar features and processes. While historically classifications have been done manually by highly skilled experts, the recent and rapid expansion in the quantity and quality of data has demanded new techniques, most notably automatic classification through supervised machine learning. We present an expansion of existing work on the field by analyzing variable stars in the {\\em Kepler} field using an ensemble approach, combining multiple characterization and classification techniques to produce improved classification rates. Classifications for each of the roughly 150,000 stars observed by {\\em Kepler} are produced separating the stars into one of 14 variable star classes.

  11. Accurate Atom Counting in Mesoscopic Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Hume, D B; Joos, M; Muessel, W; Strobel, H; Oberthaler, M K

    2013-01-01

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  12. Cluster ensembles, quantization and the dilogarithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, Vladimir; Goncharov, Alexander B.

    2009-01-01

    , possibly degenerate, and the space has a Poisson structure. The map is compatible with these structures. The dilogarithm together with its motivic and quantum avatars plays a central role in the cluster ensemble structure. We define a non-commutative -deformation of the -space. When is a root of unity...... group . It is an algebraic-geometric avatar of higher Teichmüller theory on related to . We suggest that there exists a duality between the and spaces. In particular, we conjecture that the tropical points of one of the spaces parametrise a basis in the space of functions on the Langlands dual space. We...

  13. Accurate Atom Counting in Mesoscopic Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, D. B.; Stroescu, I.; Joos, M.; Muessel, W.; Strobel, H.; Oberthaler, M. K.

    2013-12-01

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  14. Modeling Coordination Problems in a Music Ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frimodt-Møller, Søren R.

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers in general terms, how musicians are able to coordinate through rational choices in a situation of (temporary) doubt in an ensemble performance. A fictitious example involving a 5-bar development in an unknown piece of music is analyzed in terms of epistemic logic, more...... specifically a multi-agent system, where it is shown that perfect coordination can only be certain to take place if the musicians have common knowledge of certain rules of the composition. We subsequently argue, however, that the musicians need not agree on the central features of the piece of music in order...

  15. Accurate atom counting in mesoscopic ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, D B; Stroescu, I; Joos, M; Muessel, W; Strobel, H; Oberthaler, M K

    2013-12-20

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  16. A Framework for Non-Equilibrium Statistical Ensemble Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BI Qiao; HE Zu-Tan; LIU Jie

    2011-01-01

    Since Gibbs synthesized a general equilibrium statistical ensemble theory, many theorists have attempted to generalized the Gibbsian theory to non-equilibrium phenomena domain, however the status of the theory of nonequilibrium phenomena can not be said as firm as well established as the Gibbsian ensemble theory. In this work, we present a framework for the non-equilibrium statistical ensemble formalism based on a subdynamic kinetic equation (SKE) rooted from the Brussels-Austin school and followed by some up-to-date works. The constructed key is to use a similarity transformation between Gibbsian ensembles formalism based on Liouville equation and the subdynamic ensemble formalism based on the SKE. Using this formalism, we study the spin-Boson system, as cases of weak coupling or strongly coupling, and obtain the reduced density operators for the Canonical ensembles easily.

  17. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members......, an adaptive localization method is used. The performance of the adaptive localization method is compared to the more common distance-based localization. The relationship between filter performance in terms of hydraulic head and discharge error and the number of ensemble members is investigated for varying...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

  18. The Moment Convergence Rates for Largest Eigenvalues of β Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Shan XIE

    2013-01-01

    The paper focuses on the largest eigenvalues of the β-Hermite ensemble and theβ-Laguerre ensemble.In particular,we obtain the precise moment convergence rates of their largest eigenvalues.The results are motivated by the complete convergence for partial sums of i.i.d.random variables,and the proofs depend on the small deviations for largest eigenvalues of the β ensembles and tail inequalities of the general β Tracy-Widom law.

  19. On sequential observation processing in localized ensemble Kalman filters

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars

    2014-01-01

    The different variants of current ensemble square-root Kalman filters assimilate either all observations at once or perform a sequence in which batches of observations or each single observation is assimilated. The sequential observation processing is used in filter algorithms like the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and the ensemble square-root filter (EnSRF) and can result in computationally efficient algorithms because matrix inversions in the observation space are reduced to the ...

  20. Extracting Value from Ensembles for Cloud-Free Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    for Medium range Weather Forecasting EMean Ensemble mean ETR Ensemble transform with rescaling EUMETSAT European Organization for the...transform method (ET) with rescaling ( ETR ) to define the initial atmospheric uncertainty (Wei et al. 2008). Adapted from the ET method devised by...variances of each grid point to further restrain the initial ensemble spread. The ETR method replaced the breeding method in GEFS during NCEP’s May

  1. Unconditional two-mode squeezing of separated atomic ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Parkins, A S; Solano, E

    2005-01-01

    We propose schemes for the unconditional preparation of a two-mode squeezed state of effective bosonic modes realized in a pair of atomic ensembles interacting collectively with optical cavity and laser fields. The scheme uses Raman transitions between stable atomic ground states and under ideal conditions produces pure entangled states in the steady state. The scheme works both for ensembles confined within a single cavity and for ensembles confined in separate, cascaded cavities.

  2. Validation of the Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    to deterministic models. Results from ensemble weather input into operational risk management ( ORM ) destruction of enemy air defense simulations...growth during the analysis period (Toth and Kalnay, 1993; Toth and Kalnay, 1997). From this framework the ensemble transform bred vector, ensemble...features. Each of its 10 members is run independently using different configurations in the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF

  3. The MIP Ensemble Simulation: Local Ensemble Statistics in the Cosmic Web

    CERN Document Server

    Aragon-Calvo, M A

    2012-01-01

    Here we present a novel N-body simulation technique that allows us to compute ensemble statistics on a local basis, directly relating halo properties to their environment. This is achieved by the use of an ensemble simulation in which the otherwise independent realizations share the same fluctuations above a given cut-off scale. This produces a constrained ensemble where the LSS is common to all realizations while having an independent halo population. By generating a large number of semi-independent realizations we can effectively increase the local halo density by an arbitrary factor thus breaking the fundamental limit of the finite halo density (for a given halo mass range) determined by the halo mass function. This technique allows us to compute local ensemble statistics of the matter/halo distribution at a particular position in space, removing the intrinsic stochasticity in the halo formation process and directly relating halo properties to their environment. This is a major improvement over global desc...

  4. Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    . The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which are recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained...

  5. Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Uncertainty Using A Grand Ensemble of Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    variable is appropriately sized for the region ( UCAR 2010). 4. An Isotropic Joint-Ensemble Majumdar and Finochio (2010) develop a probability circle...Forecasting, 22, 671–675. UCAR , cited 2010: NCEP Perturbation Method. [Available online at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ens_matrix

  6. Fractional exclusion statistics and the Random Matrix Boson Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Hernández-Quiroz, Saul; Benet, Luis; Flores, Jorge; Cocho, Germinal

    2012-01-01

    The k-body Gaussian Embedded Ensemble of Random Matrices is considered for N bosons distributed on two single-particle levels. When k = N, the ensemble is equivalent to the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and when k = 2 it corresponds to the Two-body Random Ensemble (TBRE) for bosons. It is shown that the energy spectrum leads to a rank function which is of the form of a discrete generalized beta distribution. The same distribution is obtained assuming N non-interacting quasiparticles that obey the fractional exclusion statistics introduced by Haldane two decades ago.

  7. Adiabatic Passage of Collective Excitations in Atomic Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIYong; MIAOYuan-Xiu; SUNChang-Pu

    2004-01-01

    We describe a theoretical scheme that allows for transfer of quantum states of atomic collective excitation between two macroscopic atomic ensembles localized in two spatially-separated domains. The conception is based on the occurrence of double-exciton dark states due to the collective destructive quantum interference of the emissions from the two atomic ensembles. With an adiabatically coherence manipulation for the atom-field couplings by stimulated Rmann scattering, the dark states will extrapolate from an exciton state of an ensemble to that of another. This realizes the transport of quantum information among atomic ensembles.

  8. Adiabatic Passage of Collective Excitations in Atomic Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yong; MIAO Yuan-Xiu; SUN Chang-Pu

    2004-01-01

    We describe a theoretical scheme that allows for transfer of quantum states of atomic collective excitation between two macroscopic atomic ensembles localized in two spatially-separated domains. The conception is based on the occurrence of double-exciton dark states due to the collective destructive quantum interference of the emissions from the two atomic ensembles. With an adiabatically coherence manipulation for the atom-field couplings by stimulated Ramann scattering, the dark states will extrapolate from an exciton state of an ensemble to that of another. This realizes the transport of quantum information among atomic ensembles.

  9. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-28

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  10. Hsaing Waing: Classical Ensemble of Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chalermkit Kengkeaw

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Hsaing Waing is a classical music ensemble and a prominent culturalidentity of Myanmar. The Hsaing Waing ensemble consists of many instruments such as the Pat Waing, Muang Hsaing, Hne, Chauk Lon Bat, Byaung, Wa, Wallet Kok, Yakin, Si, and Mong. The earliest historical record of the Hsaing Waing is in 1544 where the Pat Waing and possibly the Hsaing Waing, was in royal service at the court of King Tabinshwehti of the Taungoo dynasty and prospered under the Kaunbaun dynasty up to colonial rule. During colonization, Hsaing Waing’s popularity declined but other innovations were introduced such as modern recording mediums and broadcasts which transferred the popularity of Hsaing Waing to a broader public audience and brought innovation to religious music, ceremonial rituals, fusion of westernmusical instruments such as the piano, violin and mandolin. The wealth of knowledge and numbers of connoisseur during the Kaunbaun dynasty led to the transfer of knowledge to many apprentices which were responsible for the development and adaptation and continuation of Hsaing Waing during colonization, socialism and independence. The transfer of knowledge was carried out by previous generations through apprentices, family members, close relatives and inspired individuals. The factors for the successful inheritance of Hsaing Waing are management, education, musicians and opportunity.

  11. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  12. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.

    2012-10-03

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  13. Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody J. H.

    2016-05-03

    The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.

  14. Nanobiosensing with Arrays and Ensembles of Nanoelectrodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmeh Karimian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first reports dating back to the mid-1990s, ensembles and arrays of nanoelectrodes (NEEs and NEAs, respectively have gained an important role as advanced electroanalytical tools thank to their unique characteristics which include, among others, dramatically improved signal/noise ratios, enhanced mass transport and suitability for extreme miniaturization. From the year 2000 onward, these properties have been exploited to develop electrochemical biosensors in which the surfaces of NEEs/NEAs have been functionalized with biorecognition layers using immobilization modes able to take the maximum advantage from the special morphology and composite nature of their surface. This paper presents an updated overview of this field. It consists of two parts. In the first, we discuss nanofabrication methods and the principles of functioning of NEEs/NEAs, focusing, in particular, on those features which are important for the development of highly sensitive and miniaturized biosensors. In the second part, we review literature references dealing the bioanalytical and biosensing applications of sensors based on biofunctionalized arrays/ensembles of nanoelectrodes, focusing our attention on the most recent advances, published in the last five years. The goal of this review is both to furnish fundamental knowledge to researchers starting their activity in this field and provide critical information on recent achievements which can stimulate new ideas for future developments to experienced scientists.

  15. Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoru Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new\tcluster ensemble-based image\tsegmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.

  16. Effect of Doubling the Ensemble Size on the Performance of Ensemble Prediction in the Warm Season Using MOGREPS Implemented at the KMA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Kyung KAY; Hyun Mee KIM; Young-Youn PARK; Joohyung SON

    2013-01-01

    Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated.Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF),ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system.Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA.The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009.Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy,reliability,and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts.Even though the results were not significant,the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased,especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere.While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased,inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction.The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy,resolution,and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size,especially for longer forecast times.

  17. Folie à Deux – A Clinical Case of Folie Imposée in a Mother/Child Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Nascimento

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Even though the origin of the concept of shared delusion is not consensual, the term folie a deux was introduced in 1877 by two french researchers – Lasègue and Falret. According to the original concept, a person (inductor, cognitively dominant, develops a delusional idea that progressively imposes to a second person (induced, with whom he keeps a close relationship. The four psychopathologic subtypes known – folie imposée, folie simultanée, folie communiquée and folie induite, were described in the final of the XIX century, but its classification and conceptualization was assigned to the american researcher Gralnick (1942. Aim, materials and methods: It is intended to highlight some clinical aspects of the shared delusion disorder, its epidemiological and psycopathogenic characterization and therapeutical approach. In order to achieve it, the authors presented a clinical case report and respective non systematic literature review. Results: It is a case of shared delusion of the type folie imposée in a pair mother/son. The inductor (son suffers from bipolar disorder and asperger syndrome and shared with his mother (induced and carer a persecutory delusion. Conclusions: It is highlighted the importance of a social isolation context and close contact between both members in the genesis of the disease; it is discussed the subject of the cognitive dominance between the inductor and the induced and the implications of the separation of the pair mother/son, as primary therapeutic action.

  18. Folie à Deux – A Clinical Case of Folie Imposée in a Mother/Child Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Even though the origin of the concept of shared delusion is not consensual, the term folie a deux was introduced in 1877 by two french researchers – Lasègue and Falret. According to the original concept, a person (inductor, cognitively dominant, develops a delusional idea that progressively imposes to a second person (induced, with whom he keeps a close relationship. The four psychopathologic subtypes known – folie imposée, folie simultanée, folie communiquée and folie induite, were described in the final of the XIX century, but its classification and conceptualization was assigned to the american researcher Gralnick (1942. Aim, materials and methods: It is intended to highlight some clinical aspects of the shared delusion disorder, its epidemiological and psycopathogenic characterization and therapeutical approach. In order to achieve it, the authors presented a clinical case report and respective non systematic literature review. Results: It is a case of shared delusion of the type folie imposée in a pair mother/son. The inductor (son suffers from bipolar disorder and asperger syndrome and shared with his mother (induced and carer a persecutory delusion. Conclusions: It is highlighted the importance of a social isolation context and close contact between both members in the genesis of the disease; it is discussed the subject of the cognitive dominance between the inductor and the induced and the implications of the separation of the pair mother/son, as primary therapeutic action.

  19. An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.

    2009-01-01

    The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the distributi

  20. Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method or the multi-model/multiphysics method. In fact, the mean of an ensemble forecast offers a better forecast than a deterministic (or control) forecast after a short lead time (3 5 days) for global modelling applications. There is about a 1-2-day improvement in the forecast skill when using an ensemble mean instead of a single forecast for longer lead-time. The skillful forecast (65% and above of an anomaly correlation) could be extended to 8 days (or longer) by present-day ensemble forecast systems. Furthermore, ensemble forecasts can deliver a probabilistic forecast to the users, which is based on the probability density function (PDF)instead of a single-value forecast from a traditional deterministic system. It has long been recognized that the ensemble forecast not only improves our weather forecast predictability but also offers a remarkable forecast for the future uncertainty, such as the relative measure of predictability (RMOP) and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). Not surprisingly, the success of the ensemble forecast and its wide application greatly increase the confidence of model developers and research communities.

  1. Ensembles and their modules as objects of cartosemiotic inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hansgeorg Schlichtmann

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The structured set of signs in a map face -- here called map-face aggregate or MFA -- and the associated marginal notes make up an ensemble of modules or components (modular ensemble. Such ensembles are recognized where groups of entries are intuitively viewed as complex units, which includes the case that entries are consulted jointly and thus are involved in the same process of sign reception. Modular ensembles are amenable to semiotic study, just as are written or pictorial stories. Four kinds (one of them mentioned above are discussed in detail, two involving single MFAs, the other two being assemblages of maps, such as atlases. In terms of their internal structure, two types are recognized: the combinate (or grouping, in which modules are directly linked by combinatorial relations (example above, and the cumulate (or collection (of documents, in which modules are indirectly related through some conceptual commonality (example: series of geological maps. The discussion then turns to basic points concerning modular ensembles (identification of a module, internal organization of an ensemble, and characteristics which establish an ensemble as a unit and further to a few general semiotic concepts as they relate to the present research. Since this paper originated as a reaction to several of A. Wolodtschenko’s recent publications, it concludes with comments on some of his arguments which pertain to modular ensembles.

  2. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  3. Exact ensemble density-functional theory for excited states

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Zeng-hui; Pribram-Jones, Aurora; Burke, Kieron; Needs, Richard J; Ullrich, Carsten A

    2014-01-01

    We construct exact Kohn-Sham potentials for the ensemble density-functional theory (EDFT) of excited states from the ground and excited states of helium. The exchange-correlation potential is compared with current approximations, which miss prominent features. The ensemble derivative discontinuity is tested, and the virial theorem is proven and illustrated.

  4. Ensemble Bayesian model averaging using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Diks, C.G.H.; Clark, M.

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In t

  5. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  6. Building Identity in Collegiate Midlevel Choral Ensembles: The Director's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Marci L.

    2017-01-01

    This study was designed to explore the director's perspective on the role organizational images play in social identity development in midlevel choral ensembles. Using a phenomenological methodology, I interviewed 10 current or former directors of midlevel choral ensembles from eight midwestern U.S. colleges and universities. Directors cited…

  7. Thermal Insulation Distribution Pattern of Layered Clothing Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李俊; 韦鸿发; 刘岩; 张渭源

    2004-01-01

    With a thermal manikin, the distribution pattern of thermal insulation in multi-layered clothing ensemble is studied. It is found that the thermal insulation of multi-layered clothing ensemble has certain statistical relationship with the thermal insulation of each layer, and the prediction equation has been established.

  8. Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina

    2005-01-01

    This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…

  9. Calculation of the chemical potential in the Gibbs ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, B.; Frenkel, D.

    1989-01-01

    An expression for the chemical potential in the Gibbs ensemble is derived. For finite system sizes this expression for the chemical potential differs system-atically from Widom's test particle insertion method for the N, V, T ensemble. In order to compare these two methods for calculating the chemic

  10. Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

    2016-10-01

    Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

  11. Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuo Saito

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of lateral boundary perturbations (LBPs on the mesoscale breeding (MBD method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF as the initial perturbations generators for mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs was examined. A LBPs method using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA's operational one-week global ensemble prediction was developed and applied to the mesoscale EPS of the Meteorological Research Institute for the World Weather Research Programme, Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project. The amplitude of the LBPs was adjusted based on the ensemble spread statistics considering the difference of the forecast times of the JMA's one-week EPS and the associated breeding/ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF cycles. LBPs in the ensemble forecast increase the ensemble spread and improve the accuracy of the ensemble mean forecast. In the MBD method, if LBPs were introduced in its breeding cycles, the growth rate of the generated bred vectors is increased, and the ensemble spread and the root mean square errors (RMSEs of the ensemble mean are further improved in the ensemble forecast. With LBPs in the breeding cycles, positional correspondences to the meteorological disturbances and the orthogonality of the bred vectors are improved. Brier Skill Scores (BSSs also showed a remarkable effect of LBPs in the breeding cycles. LBPs showed a similar effect with the LETKF. If LBPs were introduced in the EnKF data assimilation cycles, the ensemble spread, ensemble mean accuracy, and BSSs for precipitation were improved, although the relative advantage of LETKF as the initial perturbations generator against MDB was not necessarily clear. LBPs in the EnKF cycles contribute not to the orthogonalisation but to prevent the underestimation of the forecast error near the lateral boundary.The accuracy of the LETKF analyses was compared with that of the mesoscale 4D-VAR analyses. With LBPs in the LETKF cycles, the RMSEs of the

  12. China’s First Modern Dance Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1992-01-01

    After four years’hardwork by both Chineseand foreign artiststhe Guangdong ExperimentalModern Dance Ensemble,thefirst of its kind in China,wasestablished on June 6,1992,in the Friendship Theater ofGuangzhou.Ms、Yang Meiqi,a famous Chinese folk danceeducator,was chosen as headand Mr.Willy Tsao,a famousyoung Hongkong dancer,as artisticdirector.China’s Central TV Stationreported the news.Recommended by Ms.ChiangChing,a Chinese-American dancer,Yang Meiqi went to Durham,NorthCarolina,in the United States in thesummer of 1986.to attend the Amer-ican Dance Festival.The moderndances put on during the festivalfascinated her with their universal“language,”flexible movement,cho-reography and scientific training.“Isn’t this just What China’s dance

  13. ARM Cloud Retrieval Ensemble Data Set (ACRED)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, C; Xie, S; Klein, SA; McCoy, R; Comstock, JM; Delanoë, J; Deng, M; Dunn, M; Hogan, RJ; Jensen, MP; Mace, GG; McFarlane, SA; O’Connor, EJ; Protat, A; Shupe, MD; Turner, D; Wang, Z

    2011-09-12

    This document describes a new Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data set, the ARM Cloud Retrieval Ensemble Data Set (ACRED), which is created by assembling nine existing ground-based cloud retrievals of ARM measurements from different cloud retrieval algorithms. The current version of ACRED includes an hourly average of nine ground-based retrievals with vertical resolution of 45 m for 512 layers. The techniques used for the nine cloud retrievals are briefly described in this document. This document also outlines the ACRED data availability, variables, and the nine retrieval products. Technical details about the generation of ACRED, such as the methods used for time average and vertical re-grid, are also provided.

  14. Nonlocal inhomogeneous broadening in plasmonic nanoparticle ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan Rosenkrantz; Liu, Z.

    is to abandon the local response approximation (LRA) and take the nonlocal response of the metal into account, typically through the simple hydrodynamic Drude model (HDM), which predicts a sizedependent deviation of plasmon modes from the quasistatic (QS) limit. While this behaviour has been explored for simple...... metallic nanoparticles (NPs) or NP dimers, the possibility of inhomogeneous resonance broadening due to size variation in a large NP collection and the resulting spectral overlap of modes (as depicted in Fig. 1), has been so far overlooked. Here we study theoretically the effect of nonlocality on ensemble...... averaging through both HDM and the recent Generalized Nonlocal Optical Response (GNOR) theory, which apart from the resonance frequency shifts accounts successfully for size-dependent damping as well. We examine NPs made of either ideal Drude-like metals [of plasmon frequency (wavelength) ωp (λp...

  15. Predicting protein dynamics from structural ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Copperman, J

    2015-01-01

    The biological properties of proteins are uniquely determined by their structure and dynamics. A protein in solution populates a structural ensemble of metastable configurations around the global fold. From overall rotation to local fluctuations, the dynamics of proteins can cover several orders of magnitude in time scales. We propose a simulation-free coarse-grained approach which utilizes knowledge of the important metastable folded states of the protein to predict the protein dynamics. This approach is based upon the Langevin Equation for Protein Dynamics (LE4PD), a Langevin formalism in the coordinates of the protein backbone. The linear modes of this Langevin formalism organize the fluctuations of the protein, so that more extended dynamical cooperativity relates to increasing energy barriers to mode diffusion. The accuracy of the LE4PD is verified by analyzing the predicted dynamics across a set of seven different proteins for which both relaxation data and NMR solution structures are available. Using e...

  16. Induced Ginibre ensemble of random matrices and quantum operations

    CERN Document Server

    Fischmann, J; Khoruzhenko, B A; Sommers, H -J; Zyczkowski, K

    2011-01-01

    A generalisation of the Ginibre ensemble of non-Hermitian random square matrices is introduced. The corresponding probability measure is induced by the ensemble of rectangular Gaussian matrices via a quadratisation procedure. We derive the joint probability density of eigenvalues for such induced Ginibre ensemble and study various spectral correlation functions for complex and real matrices, and analyse universal behaviour in the limit of large dimensions. In this limit the eigenvalues of the induced Ginibre ensemble cover uniformly a ring in the complex plane. The real induced Ginibre ensemble is shown to be useful to describe statistical properties of evolution operators associated with random quantum operations, for which the dimensions of the input state and the output state do differ.

  17. Excitations and benchmark ensemble density functional theory for two electrons

    CERN Document Server

    Pribram-Jones, Aurora; Trail, John R; Burke, Kieron; Needs, Richard J; Ullrich, Carsten A

    2014-01-01

    A new method for extracting ensemble Kohn-Sham potentials from accurate excited state densities is applied to a variety of two electron systems, exploring the behavior of exact ensemble density functional theory. The issue of separating the Hartree energy and the choice of degenerate eigenstates is explored. A new approximation, spin eigenstate Hartree-exchange (SEHX), is derived. Exact conditions that are proven include the signs of the correlation energy components, the virial theorem for both exchange and correlation, and the asymptotic behavior of the potential for small weights of the excited states. Many energy components are given as a function of the weights for two electrons in a one-dimensional flat box, in a box with a large barrier to create charge transfer excitations, in a three-dimensional harmonic well (Hooke's atom), and for the He atom singlet-triplet ensemble, singlet-triplet-singlet ensemble, and triplet bi-ensemble.

  18. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  19. Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, O.; Mukamel, D.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion.

  20. Emergence of overlap in ensembles of spatial multiplexes and statistical mechanics of spatial interacting networks ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Halu, Arda; Bianconi, Ginestra

    2013-01-01

    Spatial networks range from the brain networks, to transportation networks and infrastructures. Recently interacting and multiplex networks are attracting great attention because their dynamics and robustness cannot be understood without treating at the same time several networks. Here we present maximal entropy ensembles of spatial multiplex and spatial interacting networks that can be used in order to model spatial multilayer network structures and to build null models of real datasets. We show that spatial multiplex naturally develop a significant overlap of the links, a noticeable property of many multiplexes that can affect significantly the dynamics taking place on them. Additionally, we characterize ensembles of spatial interacting networks and we analyse the structure of interacting airport and railway networks in India, showing the effect of space in determining the link probability.

  1. Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2015-05-01

    The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

  2. Risque de Défaut et Risque de Liquidité : Une Etude de Deux Composantes du Spread de Crédit

    OpenAIRE

    Hayette Gatfaoui

    2003-01-01

    La marge de taux obligataire ou encore le spread de crédit est réputé(e) pour son rôle de mesure du risque de crédit. Dans ce contexte, l’attention est portée à deux de ses principales composantes : le risque de défaut et le risque de liquidité. L’évolution du risque de défaut dépend alors de l’articulation entre ces deux quantités que l’on ne sait pas encore distinguer l’une de l’autre. Dans un contexte de crise financière, le risque de défaut l’emporte sur le risque de liquidité, ce qui se ...

  3. Jeu de plans de référence, alternance de deux axes narratifs et effet de mimétisme dans La neige en deuil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Faransis

    2013-11-01

    La présente étude en illustre un cas, en décrivant la composition d’un extrait de La neige en deuil, en termes de paramètres énonciatifs discursifs, dits, par l’auteure, plans de référence, reformulation, notionnelle et terminologique, de la distinction d’É. BENVENISTE de deux plans d’énonciation : plan de l’histoire vs plan du discours, et en montrant comment l’articulation de la composition donne lieu à l’alternance de deux axes narratifs, décrits, à leur tour, par des concepts narratologiques pris à G. GENETTE, pour circonscrire, par là, les fonctions correspondantes et leur intérêt dans l’économie générale du roman.

  4. Rôle de la radiothérapie dans le traitement de l'améloblastome: à propos de deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Mazghi, Abderrahman; Bouhafa, Touria; El Kacemi, Hanan; Loukili, Kaoutar; Chbani, Laila; Kebdani, Taieb; Hassouni, Khalid

    2014-01-01

    L'améloblastome est une tumeur odontogène bénigne mais à pouvoir agressif et invasif local important. C'est une tumeur rare, elle représente 1% des tumeurs des maxillaires. Le rôle de la radiothérapie dans son traitement est actuellement démontré pour les tumeurs inopérables. Nous rapportons 2 cas d'améloblastomes mandibulaires chez deux patients qui ont bénéficié d'une radiothérapie externe à la dose de 60 Gy. L’évolution a été marquée par une rémission complète de la maladie dans les deux cas avec un recul de 2 et 5 ans. PMID:25722762

  5. Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used in the Kalman filter. By design, the H∞ filter is more robust than the Kalman filter, in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter in general has a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation, except for a special case that corresponds to the Kalman filter. The original form of the H∞ filter contains global constraints in time, which may be inconvenient for sequential data assimilation problems. Therefore a variant is introduced that solves some time-local constraints instead, and hence it is called the time-local H∞ filter (TLHF). By analogy to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the concept of ensemble time-local H∞ filter (EnTLHF) is also proposed. The general form of the EnTLHF is outlined, and some of its special cases are discussed. In particular, it is shown that an EnKF with certain covariance inflation is essentially an EnTLHF. In this sense, the EnTLHF provides a general framework for conducting covariance inflation in the EnKF-based methods. Some numerical examples are used to assess the relative robustness of the TLHF–EnTLHF in comparison with the corresponding KF–EnKF method.

  6. Ostéome ostéoïde intra-articulaire de la hanche: deux observations et revue de la littérature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellouz Zoubir

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available L’ostéome ostéoïde est une tumeur osseuse bénigne qui affecte les adultes jeunes et se localise préférentiellement au niveau des os longs. La localisation intra-articulaire est rare et atteint le plus souvent la hanche. La symptomatologie clinique est alors atypique et peut faire errer le diagnostic constituant un défi diagnostique pour les cliniciens. Nous rapportons deux observations d’ostéome ostéoïde intra-articulaires de la hanche chez deux hommes âgés 24 et 45 ans, révélés par des douleurs de la hanche gauche de type inflammatoire évoluant depuis un an et un an et demi respectivement. Chez les deux patients, le tableau atypique de l’ostéome ostéoïde a été à l’origine d’un retard diagnostic. La tomodensitométrie est dans cette indication l’examen le plus spécifique qui a permis d’évoquer le diagnostic d’ostéome ostéoïde. Une fois le diagnostic est posé, l’exérèse chirurgicale à ciel ouvert a permis la guérison avec disparition totale des douleurs. L’examen histologique a confirmé le diagnostic final d’ostéome ostéoïde intra-articulaire dans les deux cas.

  7. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  8. Comparaison de l'altérabilité au brouillard salin des deux pierres calcaires de construction au moyen des mesures pondérales acoustiques et par traitement d'images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birginie, J. M.

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available Not available

    Se presentan los resultados de un estudio comparativo de la resistencia a la alteración en atmósfera de niebla salina de dos rocas calizas utilizadas en la construcción de monumentos en Francia y en España. Las modificaciones experimentadas por las probetas durante este ensayo se han valorado utilizando tres métodos: la medida de la evolución del peso, la medida de la velocidad de propagación de ultrasonidos y el análisis visual de las modificaciones superficiales por un sistema de barrido mediante luz láser de las superficies (método de triangulación luz láser-cámara y posterior tratamiento de imágenes. La comparación de los resultados obtenidos muestra que los tres métodos ofrecen una información complementaria que permite caracterizar de manera precisa el proceso de alteración y su evolución durante el ensayo. Es, sin embargo, el método de análisis mediante el sistema láser-cámara el que ofrece más posibilidades para describir y comparar de manera objetiva la morfología y la evolución de la desagregación arenosa observada sobre las dos rocas calizas alteradas artificialmente. [fr] Nous présentons les résultats d'une étude comparative de la résistance à l'altération au brouillard salin de deux pierres utilisées dans la construction de monuments en France et en Espagne. Les transformations subies par les échantillons au cours de l'essai de vieillissement ont été évaluées eu utilisant trois méthodes: l'évolution de la masse, la mesure de la vitesse de propagation d'ultrasons et l'analyse visuelle automatisée des désagrégations superficielles au moyen d'un système de balayage par plan laser de la surface (triangulation laser-caméra. La comparaison de l'ensemble de ces résultats démontre que les trois méthodes non destructives fournissent des informations complémentaires qui permettent de caractériser les processus d'altération et leur évolution. C'est néanmoins l

  9. Ensemble Kalman filtering without the intrinsic need for inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bocquet

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The main intrinsic source of error in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF is sampling error. External sources of error, such as model error or deviations from Gaussianity, depend on the dynamical properties of the model. Sampling errors can lead to instability of the filter which, as a consequence, often requires inflation and localization. The goal of this article is to derive an ensemble Kalman filter which is less sensitive to sampling errors. A prior probability density function conditional on the forecast ensemble is derived using Bayesian principles. Even though this prior is built upon the assumption that the ensemble is Gaussian-distributed, it is different from the Gaussian probability density function defined by the empirical mean and the empirical error covariance matrix of the ensemble, which is implicitly used in traditional EnKFs. This new prior generates a new class of ensemble Kalman filters, called finite-size ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF-N. One deterministic variant, the finite-size ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF-N, is derived. It is tested on the Lorenz '63 and Lorenz '95 models. In this context, ETKF-N is shown to be stable without inflation for ensemble size greater than the model unstable subspace dimension, at the same numerical cost as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF. One variant of ETKF-N seems to systematically outperform the ETKF with optimally tuned inflation. However it is shown that ETKF-N does not account for all sampling errors, and necessitates localization like any EnKF, whenever the ensemble size is too small. In order to explore the need for inflation in this small ensemble size regime, a local version of the new class of filters is defined (LETKF-N and tested on the Lorenz '95 toy model. Whatever the size of the ensemble, the filter is stable. Its performance without inflation is slightly inferior to that of LETKF with optimally tuned inflation for small interval between updates, and

  10. Activite locomotrice de souris isolees, de deux lignees consanguines, dans un environnement semi-naturel ou en cages d'elevage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pape, G; Lassalle, J M

    1979-10-01

    Des enregistrements continus d'activité locomotrice ont été effectués sur des souris mâles isolées des lignées Balb/c et C57bl/6, vivant en cages d'élevage ou en milieu semi- naturel. Les résultats montrent que les différences entre ces deux situations ne sont pas perçues de la même façon par les animaux des deux lign'ees: alors qu'en cages d'élevage les souris des deux lignées experiment la même quantité totale d'activaté, en milieu semi-naturel les souris Balb/c sont plus actives que les C57bl/6. En outre, l≐s différences observées entre les lignées pour la repartition de l'activité au cours du nycthèmere s'inversent lorsque l'on passe d'une situation à l'autre. L'étude de la variabilité fait aparaître une dispersion plus grande des performances dans la lignée C57bl/6 en cages d'élevage, alors qu'en milieu semi-naturel la dispersion est plus chez Bal/c.

  11. Corps d’adeptes, paroles de Dieu et visions de Saints. Pratiques rituelles masculines et féminines dans deux sanctuaires de Tunis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katia Boissevain

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet article examine les pratiques rituelles contemporaines d’hommes et de femmes qui se rendent à deux sanctuaires tunisois dédiés à Sayyida Mannûbiyya, sainte du xiiie siècle. Cette sainte ambivalente s’inscrit dans deux registres de légitimité religieuse, le soufisme lettré, à travers son affiliation à la confrérie Shâdhiliyya, et une dimension plus locale. L’une et l’autre de ces voies donnent lieu à deux types de cérémonies religieuses, la ḥaḍra des femmes avec ses danses de possession et les séances de dhikr des hommes, disciples shâdhilî-s. Pourtant, on ne peut séparer un rapport au sacré féminin qui serait particulièrement corporel d’un rapport au sacré masculin plus intellectuel. La ḥaḍra comme le dhikr engagent pleinement le corps des participants dans un dialogue avec le sacré tout en puisant leur légitimité dans des sources distinctes, la confrérie Shâdhîliyya pour le dhikr et la dimension miraculeuse de Khiḍr pour la ḥaḍra

  12. Progressive freezing of interacting spins in isolated finite magnetic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Kakoli; Dupuis, Veronique; Le-Roy, Damien; Deb, Pritam

    2017-02-01

    Self-organization of magnetic nanoparticles into secondary nanostructures provides an innovative way for designing functional nanomaterials with novel properties, different from the constituent primary nanoparticles as well as their bulk counterparts. Collective magnetic properties of such complex closed packing of magnetic nanoparticles makes them more appealing than the individual magnetic nanoparticles in many technological applications. This work reports the collective magnetic behaviour of magnetic ensembles comprising of single domain Fe3O4 nanoparticles. The present work reveals that the ensemble formation is based on the re-orientation and attachment of the nanoparticles in an iso-oriented fashion at the mesoscale regime. Comprehensive dc magnetic measurements show the prevalence of strong interparticle interactions in the ensembles. Due to the close range organization of primary Fe3O4 nanoparticles in the ensemble, the spins of the individual nanoparticles interact through dipolar interactions as realized from remnant magnetization measurements. Signature of super spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles is observed in the memory studies carried out in field cooled conditions. Progressive freezing of spins in the ensembles is corroborated from the Vogel-Fulcher fit of the susceptibility data. Dynamic scaling of relaxation reasserted slow spin dynamics substantiating cluster spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles.

  13. Soil texture reclassification by an ensemble model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisty, Milan; Hlavcova, Kamila

    2015-04-01

    a prerequisite for solving some subsequent task, this bias is propagated to the subsequent modelling or other work. Therefore, for the sake of achieving more general and precise outputs while solving such tasks, the authors of the present paper are proposing a hybrid approach, which has the potential for obtaining improved results. Although the authors continue recommending the use of the mentioned parametric PSD models in the proposed methodology, the final prediction is made by an ensemble machine learning algorithm based on regression trees, the so-called Random Forest algorithm, which is built on top of the outputs of such models, which serves as an ensemble members. An improvement in precision was proved, and it is documented in the paper that the ensemble model worked better than any of its constituents. References Nemes, A., Wosten, J.H.M., Lilly, A., Voshaar, J.H.O.: Evaluation of different procedures to interpolate particle-size distributions to achieve compatibility within soil databases. Geoderma 90, 187- 202 (1999) Hwang, S.: Effect of texture on the performance of soil particle-size distribution models. Geoderma 123, 363-371 (2004) Botula, Y.D., Cornelis, W.M., Baert, G., Mafuka, P., Van Ranst, E.: Particle size distribution models for soils of the humid tropics. J Soils Sediments. 13, 686-698 (2013)

  14. Fort-de-France et Pointe-à-Pitre : deux villes américaines ?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Charlery

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Nous suivrons le processus de diffusion d’un type d’immeuble standard qui s’était développé en Angleterre dans le courant du XVIIIe siècle et qui essaima de 1790 aux années 1820 sur la côte est des anciennes colonies anglo–américaines, de Boston à La Nouvelle Orléans. Dans cette dernière ville, l’architecture subira son premier phénomène de créolisation, avant de se répandre, entre 1840 et 1850, vers certaines villes des Antilles, dont Fort–de–France à la Martinique et Pointe–à–Pitre à la Guadeloupe. Un second processus de créolisation permettra la production de nouveaux modèles qui finiront par donner une identité particulière à ces deux villes antillaises d’origine française.We will follow the process of dissemination of a standard type of building that was developed in England during the 18th century and that spread from 1790 to the 1820’s along the East Coast of the former Anglo–American colonies, between Boston and New Orleans. It is in the latter city that this style of architecture underwent the first instance of creolization, before becoming widespread, between 1840 and 1850, in certain cities of the West Indies, among them Fort–de–France in Martinique and Pointe–à–Pitre in Guadeloupe. A second process of creolization allowed the creation of new designs that established a distinctive identity to these two West Indian cities of French origin.

  15. Deterministic entanglement of Rydberg ensembles by engineered dissipation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dasari, Durga; Mølmer, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    We propose a scheme that employs dissipation to deterministically generate entanglement in an ensemble of strongly interacting Rydberg atoms. With a combination of microwave driving between different Rydberg levels and a resonant laser coupling to a short lived atomic state, the ensemble can...... be driven towards a dark steady state that entangles all atoms. The long-range resonant dipole-dipole interaction between different Rydberg states extends the entanglement beyond the van der Walls interaction range with perspectives for entangling large and distant ensembles....

  16. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin-peng Jin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  17. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Lin-Peng; Dong, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  18. An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Ensemble Technique

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; HUANG Cong-ming

    2006-01-01

    An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.

  19. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  20. General approaches in ensemble quantum computing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V Vimalan; N Chandrakumar

    2008-01-01

    We have developed methodology for NMR quantum computing focusing on enhancing the efficiency of initialization, of logic gate implementation and of readout. Our general strategy involves the application of rotating frame pulse sequences to prepare pseudopure states and to perform logic operations. We demonstrate experimentally our methodology for both homonuclear and heteronuclear spin ensembles. On model two-spin systems, the initialization time of one of our sequences is three-fourths (in the heteronuclear case) or one-fourth (in the homonuclear case), of the typical pulsed free precession sequences, attaining the same initialization efficiency. We have implemented the logical SWAP operation in homonuclear AMX spin systems using selective isotropic mixing, reducing the duration taken to a third compared to the standard re-focused INEPT-type sequence. We introduce the 1D version for readout of the rotating frame SWAP operation, in an attempt to reduce readout time. We further demonstrate the Hadamard mode of 1D SWAP, which offers 2N-fold reduction in experiment time for a system with -working bits, attaining the same sensitivity as the standard 1D version.

  1. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Xiaodong; 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17130

    2012-01-01

    Covariance inflation and localization are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/o...

  2. Orchestrating Distributed Resource Ensembles for Petascale Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldin, Ilya; Mandal, Anirban; Ruth, Paul; Yufeng, Xin

    2014-04-24

    Distributed, data-intensive computational science applications of interest to DOE scientific com- munities move large amounts of data for experiment data management, distributed analysis steps, remote visualization, and accessing scientific instruments. These applications need to orchestrate ensembles of resources from multiple resource pools and interconnect them with high-capacity multi- layered networks across multiple domains. It is highly desirable that mechanisms are designed that provide this type of resource provisioning capability to a broad class of applications. It is also important to have coherent monitoring capabilities for such complex distributed environments. In this project, we addressed these problems by designing an abstract API, enabled by novel semantic resource descriptions, for provisioning complex and heterogeneous resources from multiple providers using their native provisioning mechanisms and control planes: computational, storage, and multi-layered high-speed network domains. We used an extensible resource representation based on semantic web technologies to afford maximum flexibility to applications in specifying their needs. We evaluated the effectiveness of provisioning using representative data-intensive ap- plications. We also developed mechanisms for providing feedback about resource performance to the application, to enable closed-loop feedback control and dynamic adjustments to resource allo- cations (elasticity). This was enabled through development of a novel persistent query framework that consumes disparate sources of monitoring data, including perfSONAR, and provides scalable distribution of asynchronous notifications.

  3. Variety of synchronous regimes in neuronal ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, M. A.; Osipov, G. V.; Suykens, J. A. K.

    2008-09-01

    We consider a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of oscillatory activity in neurons of the snail Helix pomatia. This model has a distinctive feature: It demonstrates multistability in oscillatory and silent modes that is typical for the thalamocortical neurons. A single neuron cell can demonstrate a variety of oscillatory activity: Regular and chaotic spiking and bursting behavior. We study collective phenomena in small and large arrays of nonidentical cells coupled by models of electrical and chemical synapses. Two single elements coupled by electrical coupling show different types of synchronous behavior, in particular in-phase and antiphase synchronous regimes. In an ensemble of three inhibitory synaptically coupled elements, the phenomenon of sequential synchronous dynamics is observed. We study the synchronization phenomena in the chain of nonidentical neurons at different oscillatory behavior coupled with electrical and chemical synapses. Various regimes of phase synchronization are observed: (i) Synchronous regular and chaotic spiking; (ii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting; and (iii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting with different numbers of spikes inside the bursts. We detect and study the effect of collective synchronous burst generation due to the cluster formation and the oscillatory death.

  4. Large margin classifier-based ensemble tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuru; Liu, Qiaoyuan; Yin, Minghao; Wang, ShengSheng

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, many studies consider visual tracking as a two-class classification problem. The key problem is to construct a classifier with sufficient accuracy in distinguishing the target from its background and sufficient generalize ability in handling new frames. However, the variable tracking conditions challenges the existing methods. The difficulty mainly comes from the confused boundary between the foreground and background. This paper handles this difficulty by generalizing the classifier's learning step. By introducing the distribution data of samples, the classifier learns more essential characteristics in discriminating the two classes. Specifically, the samples are represented in a multiscale visual model. For features with different scales, several large margin distribution machine (LDMs) with adaptive kernels are combined in a Baysian way as a strong classifier. Where, in order to improve the accuracy and generalization ability, not only the margin distance but also the sample distribution is optimized in the learning step. Comprehensive experiments are performed on several challenging video sequences, through parameter analysis and field comparison, the proposed LDM combined ensemble tracker is demonstrated to perform with sufficient accuracy and generalize ability in handling various typical tracking difficulties.

  5. Model error estimation in ensemble data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gillijns

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology is proposed to estimate and account for systematic model error in linear filtering as well as in nonlinear ensemble based filtering. Our results extend the work of Dee and Todling (2000 on constant bias errors to time-varying model errors. In contrast to existing methodologies, the new filter can also deal with the case where no dynamical model for the systematic error is available. In the latter case, the applicability is limited by a matrix rank condition which has to be satisfied in order for the filter to exist. The performance of the filter developed in this paper is limited by the availability and the accuracy of observations and by the variance of the stochastic model error component. The effect of these aspects on the estimation accuracy is investigated in several numerical experiments using the Lorenz (1996 model. Experimental results indicate that the availability of a dynamical model for the systematic error significantly reduces the variance of the model error estimates, but has only minor effect on the estimates of the system state. The filter is able to estimate additive model error of any type, provided that the rank condition is satisfied and that the stochastic errors and measurement errors are significantly smaller than the systematic errors. The results of this study are encouraging. However, it remains to be seen how the filter performs in more realistic applications.

  6. Emergent order in ensembles of active spinners

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zuiden, Benjamin C.; Paulose, Jayson; Irvine, William T. M.; Bartolo, Denis; Vitelli, Vincenzo

    Interacting self-propelled particles is proxy to model many living systems from cytoskeletal motors to bird flocks, while also providing a framework to investigate fundamental questions in non equilibrium statistical mechanics. A surge of recent studies have shown that self-propulsion significantly modifies the phase behavior of particles interacting via potential interactions. A prototypical example is the so-called Motility Induced Phase Separation occurring in ensembles of self-propelled hard spheres. In stark contrast, our understanding of active spinning, as opposed to self-propulsion, remains very scarce. Here, we study a system of self-spinning dimers, interacting via soft repulsive forces. Upon varying the density and activity, we observe a range of emergent phases characterized by different degrees of spatiotemporal order in the position and orientation of the dimers. Changes in bulk properties, including crystallization, melting, and freezing, are reflected in the collective motion of the particles. We rationalize our numerical findings theoretically and demonstrate some of these concepts in a active granular experiment.

  7. Group Theory for Embedded Random Matrix Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Embedded random matrix ensembles are generic models for describing statistical properties of finite isolated quantum many-particle systems. For the simplest spinless fermion (or boson) systems with say $m$ fermions (or bosons) in $N$ single particle states and interacting with say $k$-body interactions, we have EGUE($k$) [embedded GUE of $k$-body interactions) with GUE embedding and the embedding algebra is $U(N)$. In this paper, using EGUE($k$) representation for a Hamiltonian that is $k$-body and an independent EGUE($t$) representation for a transition operator that is $t$-body and employing the embedding $U(N)$ algebra, finite-$N$ formulas for moments up to order four are derived, for the first time, for the transition strength densities (transition strengths multiplied by the density of states at the initial and final energies). In the asymptotic limit, these formulas reduce to those derived for the EGOE version and establish that in general bivariate transition strength densities take bivariate Gaussian ...

  8. Quantum metrology with cold atomic ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell Morgan W.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Quantum metrology uses quantum features such as entanglement and squeezing to improve the sensitivity of quantum-limited measurements. Long established as a valuable technique in optical measurements such as gravitational-wave detection, quantum metrology is increasingly being applied to atomic instruments such as matter-wave interferometers, atomic clocks, and atomic magnetometers. Several of these new applications involve dual optical/atomic quantum systems, presenting both new challenges and new opportunities. Here we describe an optical magnetometry system that achieves both shot-noise-limited and projection-noise-limited performance, allowing study of optical magnetometry in a fully-quantum regime [1]. By near-resonant Faraday rotation probing, we demonstrate measurement-based spin squeezing in a magnetically-sensitive atomic ensemble [2-4]. The versatility of this system allows us also to design metrologically-relevant optical nonlinearities, and to perform quantum-noise-limited measurements with interacting photons. As a first interaction-based measurement [5], we implement a non-linear metrology scheme proposed by Boixo et al. with the surprising feature of precision scaling better than the 1/N “Heisenberg limit” [6].

  9. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm

  10. Deux regards, un monde

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Moorhead

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available L’Américaine Andrea Moorhead explique comment elle en est venue à écrire en français alors qu’elle est native de Buffalo, près des chutes du Niagara. Elle interroge les différentes dispositions et dispositifs poétiques en français et en anglais, et souligne en particulier le rôle de l’inconscient et de l’enfance. Écrire en français, selon l’auteur, n’est pas la traduction d’un état anglais : c’est un mouvement intérieur qui répond aux exigences de l’esprit, car le regard, le lien avec soi et avec les autres, l’énoncé lui-même sont différents. Écrire en anglais porte la franchise des Saxons et la mélancolie des Celtes, alors qu’écrire en français laisse entrer le murmure du subconscient et la douleur du monde. L’auteur montre que l’anglais est une langue à la fois poétique et pragmatique et qu’en français, la tension vient plutôt de l’abstraction et de la finesse du regard. Le bilinguisme poétique représente à ses yeux la foi dans une humanité planétaire.

  11. Deux Mycena nouveaux

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijsman, H.S.C.

    1958-01-01

    Mycena nucicola Huijsm. sp. nov. — Fig. 1 — Pusillima, tota alba, solitaria ad nuces dejectas Coryli avellanae; pileo usque ad 2 mm lato, conico-elevato vel hemisphaerico, pulverulento; lamellis subventricosis; stipite 12—22 X 0,15—2 mm, subfarinoso, disco basali minuto, pulverulento; sporis 7—9 X 4

  12. Watchmen, à deux voix

    OpenAIRE

    Thouret, Clotilde; Pasquier, Renaud

    2010-01-01

    A et B sont des lecteurs de Watchmen, d’Alan Moore et Dave Gibbons. Ils en parlent. A – Que diriez-vous d’écrire un article sur les Watchmen pour Labyrinthe ? Saisissons l’occasion : l’œuvre d’Alan Moore fête ses vingtans, comme le Dark Knight Returns de Frank Miller. Et comme le Dark Knight, Watchmen est une longue méditation sur les super-héros, maisaussi sur les comics, leur forme, leur histoire, à partir d’une base narrative très classique (l’élimination d’anciens héros costumés, qui cach...

  13. ...Beyond folie à deux...

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milutinović-Bojanić Sanja

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this text I attempt to recognize and identify two conditions that make engagement possible. One certainly refers to the word, while the other is inscribed onto the body - every or any body - and it regards affect. I illustrate the first condition by a brief reading of a poem by Samuel Beckett, whose English translation the author dedicated to his friend and long-term collaborator, Joseph Chaikin. The second condition I place into Spinoza’s, that is, Deleuze’s understanding of affect.

  14. Ensembles on configuration space classical, quantum, and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Michael J W

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a promising approach to problems in the foundations of quantum mechanics, including the measurement problem. The dynamics of ensembles on configuration space is shown here to be a valuable tool for unifying the formalisms of classical and quantum mechanics, for deriving and extending the latter in various ways, and for addressing the quantum measurement problem. A description of physical systems by means of ensembles on configuration space can be introduced at a very fundamental level: the basic building blocks are a configuration space, probabilities, and Hamiltonian equations of motion for the probabilities. The formalism can describe both classical and quantum systems, and their thermodynamics, with the main difference being the choice of ensemble Hamiltonian. Furthermore, there is a natural way of introducing ensemble Hamiltonians that describe the evolution of hybrid systems; i.e., interacting systems that have distinct classical and quantum sectors, allowing for consistent descriptio...

  15. Phase-selective entrainment of nonlinear oscillator ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnik, Anatoly; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, István Z.; Li-Shin, Jr.

    2016-03-01

    The ability to organize and finely manipulate the hierarchy and timing of dynamic processes is important for understanding and influencing brain functions, sleep and metabolic cycles, and many other natural phenomena. However, establishing spatiotemporal structures in biological oscillator ensembles is a challenging task that requires controlling large collections of complex nonlinear dynamical units. In this report, we present a method to design entrainment signals that create stable phase patterns in ensembles of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators without using state feedback information. We demonstrate the approach using experiments with electrochemical reactions on multielectrode arrays, in which we selectively assign ensemble subgroups into spatiotemporal patterns with multiple phase clusters. The experimentally confirmed mechanism elucidates the connection between the phases and natural frequencies of a collection of dynamical elements, the spatial and temporal information that is encoded within this ensemble, and how external signals can be used to retrieve this information.

  16. Time and ensemble averaging in time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Latka, Miroslaw; Jernajczyk, Wojciech; West, Bruce J

    2010-01-01

    In many applications expectation values are calculated by partitioning a single experimental time series into an ensemble of data segments of equal length. Such single trajectory ensemble (STE) is a counterpart to a multiple trajectory ensemble (MTE) used whenever independent measurements or realizations of a stochastic process are available. The equivalence of STE and MTE for stationary systems was postulated by Wang and Uhlenbeck in their classic paper on Brownian motion (Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945)) but surprisingly has not yet been proved. Using the stationary and ergodic paradigm of statistical physics -- the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) Langevin equation, we revisit Wang and Uhlenbeck's postulate. In particular, we find that the variance of the solution of this equation is different for these two ensembles. While the variance calculated using the MTE quantifies the spreading of independent trajectories originating from the same initial point, the variance for STE measures the spreading of two correlated r...

  17. Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemann, Lars; Hua, Jia-Chen; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2012-12-01

    Empirical analysis of financial time series suggests that the underlying stochastic dynamics are not only non-stationary, but also exhibit non-stationary increments. However, financial time series are commonly analyzed using the sliding interval technique that assumes stationary increments. We propose an alternative approach that is based on an ensemble over trading days. To determine the effects of time averaging techniques on analysis outcomes, we create an intraday activity model that exhibits periodic variable diffusion dynamics and we assess the model data using both ensemble and time averaging techniques. We find that ensemble averaging techniques detect the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas sliding intervals approaches fail. As many traded assets exhibit characteristic intraday volatility patterns, our work implies that ensemble averages approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets’ dynamics.

  18. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this model, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The model includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for not only hydrological processes, but also for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity.

  19. Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Best, R. B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, M. A.

    2006-01-01

    Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest......Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of "high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank" (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural...... heterogeneity of the native state in solution. We find that different NMR measurements probing structure and dynamics of given proteins in solution, including order parameters, scalar couplings, and residual dipolar couplings, are remarkably well reproduced by their respective high-sequence similarity Protein...

  20. Spectroscopic properties of inhomogeneously broadened spin ensembles in a cavity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurucz, Zoltan; Wesenberg, Janus; Mølmer, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    The enhanced collective coupling to weak quantum fields may turn atomic or spin ensembles into an important component in quantum information processing architectures. Inhomogeneous broadening can, however, significantly reduce the coupling and the lifetime of the collective excitation...

  1. Ensemble control of linear systems with parameter uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Kit Ian; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Dandan; Tu, Yanshuai

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, we study the optimal control problem for a class of four-dimensional linear systems based on quaternionic and Fourier analysis. When the control is unconstrained, the optimal ensemble controller for this linear ensemble control systems is given in terms of prolate spheroidal wave functions. For the constrained convex optimisation problem of such systems, the quadratic programming is presented to obtain the optimal control laws. Simulations are given to verity the effectiveness of the proposed theory.

  2. Clustering Categorical Data:A Cluster Ensemble Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Zengyou(何增友); Xu Xiaofei; Deng Shengchun

    2003-01-01

    Clustering categorical data, an integral part of data mining,has attracted much attention recently. In this paper, the authors formally define the categorical data clustering problem as an optimization problem from the viewpoint of cluster ensemble, and apply cluster ensemble approach for clustering categorical data. Experimental results on real datasets show that better clustering accuracy can be obtained by comparing with existing categorical data clustering algorithms.

  3. An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

    2013-10-01

    Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html.

  4. Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conduct...

  5. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  6. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  7. Ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vammi, Vijay, E-mail: vsvammi@iastate.edu; Song, Guang, E-mail: gsong@iastate.edu [Iowa State University, Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program, Department of Computer Science (United States)

    2015-12-15

    In our previous work, we proposed a new way to represent protein native states, using ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative Populations, or ESP in short. Using Ubiquitin as an example, we showed that using a small number of conformations could greatly reduce the potential of overfitting and assigning relative populations to protein ensembles could significantly improve their quality. To demonstrate that ESP indeed is an excellent alternative to represent protein native states, in this work we compare the quality of two ESP ensembles of Ubiquitin with several well-known regular ensembles or average structure representations. Extensive amount of significant experimental data are employed to achieve a thorough assessment. Our results demonstrate that ESP ensembles, though much smaller in size comparing to regular ensembles, perform equally or even better sometimes in all four different types of experimental data used in the assessment, namely, the residual dipolar couplings, residual chemical shift anisotropy, hydrogen exchange rates, and solution scattering profiles. This work further underlines the significance of having relative populations in describing the native states.

  8. Long-range interacting systems in the unconstrained ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latella, Ivan; Pérez-Madrid, Agustín; Campa, Alessandro; Casetti, Lapo; Ruffo, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Completely open systems can exchange heat, work, and matter with the environment. While energy, volume, and number of particles fluctuate under completely open conditions, the equilibrium states of the system, if they exist, can be specified using the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential as control parameters. The unconstrained ensemble is the statistical ensemble describing completely open systems and the replica energy is the appropriate free energy for these control parameters from which the thermodynamics must be derived. It turns out that macroscopic systems with short-range interactions cannot attain equilibrium configurations in the unconstrained ensemble, since temperature, pressure, and chemical potential cannot be taken as a set of independent variables in this case. In contrast, we show that systems with long-range interactions can reach states of thermodynamic equilibrium in the unconstrained ensemble. To illustrate this fact, we consider a modification of the Thirring model and compare the unconstrained ensemble with the canonical and grand-canonical ones: The more the ensemble is constrained by fixing the volume or number of particles, the larger the space of parameters defining the equilibrium configurations.

  9. Knowledge based cluster ensemble for cancer discovery from biomolecular data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiwen; Wongb, Hau-San; You, Jane; Yang, Qinmin; Liao, Hongying

    2011-06-01

    The adoption of microarray techniques in biological and medical research provides a new way for cancer diagnosis and treatment. In order to perform successful diagnosis and treatment of cancer, discovering and classifying cancer types correctly is essential. Class discovery is one of the most important tasks in cancer classification using biomolecular data. Most of the existing works adopt single clustering algorithms to perform class discovery from biomolecular data. However, single clustering algorithms have limitations, which include a lack of robustness, stability, and accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble approach called knowledge based cluster ensemble (KCE) which incorporates the prior knowledge of the data sets into the cluster ensemble framework. Specifically, KCE represents the prior knowledge of a data set in the form of pairwise constraints. Then, the spectral clustering algorithm (SC) is adopted to generate a set of clustering solutions. Next, KCE transforms pairwise constraints into confidence factors for these clustering solutions. After that, a consensus matrix is constructed by considering all the clustering solutions and their corresponding confidence factors. The final clustering result is obtained by partitioning the consensus matrix. Comparison with single clustering algorithms and conventional cluster ensemble approaches, knowledge based cluster ensemble approaches are more robust, stable and accurate. The experiments on cancer data sets show that: 1) KCE works well on these data sets; 2) KCE not only outperforms most of the state-of-the-art single clustering algorithms, but also outperforms most of the state-of-the-art cluster ensemble approaches.

  10. Long-range interacting systems in the unconstrained ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latella, Ivan; Pérez-Madrid, Agustín; Campa, Alessandro; Casetti, Lapo; Ruffo, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Completely open systems can exchange heat, work, and matter with the environment. While energy, volume, and number of particles fluctuate under completely open conditions, the equilibrium states of the system, if they exist, can be specified using the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential as control parameters. The unconstrained ensemble is the statistical ensemble describing completely open systems and the replica energy is the appropriate free energy for these control parameters from which the thermodynamics must be derived. It turns out that macroscopic systems with short-range interactions cannot attain equilibrium configurations in the unconstrained ensemble, since temperature, pressure, and chemical potential cannot be taken as a set of independent variables in this case. In contrast, we show that systems with long-range interactions can reach states of thermodynamic equilibrium in the unconstrained ensemble. To illustrate this fact, we consider a modification of the Thirring model and compare the unconstrained ensemble with the canonical and grand-canonical ones: The more the ensemble is constrained by fixing the volume or number of particles, the larger the space of parameters defining the equilibrium configurations.

  11. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  12. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers. PMID:28060807

  13. Hybrid Intrusion Detection Using Ensemble of Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Govindarajan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. In this research work, new ensemble classification methods are proposed for homogeneous ensemble classifiers using bagging and heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing classifier and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approaches are demonstrated by the means of real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The main originality of the proposed approach is based on three main parts: preprocessing phase, classification phase and combining phase. A wide range of comparative experiments are conducted for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The accuracy of base classifiers is compared with homogeneous and heterogeneous models for data mining problem. The proposed ensemble methods provide significant improvement of accuracy compared to individual classifiers and also heterogeneous models exhibit better results than homogeneous models for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection.

  14. Selecting, weeding, and weighting biased climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, C. S.; Picton, J.; Huerta, G.; Nosedal Sanchez, A.

    2012-12-01

    In the Bayesian formulation, the "log-likelihood" is a test statistic for selecting, weeding, or weighting climate model ensembles with observational data. This statistic has the potential to synthesize the physical and data constraints on quantities of interest. One of the thorny issues for formulating the log-likelihood is how one should account for biases. While in the past we have included a generic discrepancy term, not all biases affect predictions of quantities of interest. We make use of a 165-member ensemble CAM3.1/slab ocean climate models with different parameter settings to think through the issues that are involved with predicting each model's sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing given what can be observed from the base state. In particular we use multivariate empirical orthogonal functions to decompose the differences that exist among this ensemble to discover what fields and regions matter to the model's sensitivity. We find that the differences that matter are a small fraction of the total discrepancy. Moreover, weighting members of the ensemble using this knowledge does a relatively poor job of adjusting the ensemble mean toward the known answer. This points out the shortcomings of using weights to correct for biases in climate model ensembles created by a selection process that does not emphasize the priorities of your log-likelihood.

  15. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  16. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

    2015-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335

  17. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  18. Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crestani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is important for predicting the transport of dissolved compounds. Especially in the nonreactive case, the plume evolution is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman-filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman-filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.

  19. On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jaun

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS. The observational references in the evaluation are (a analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2 of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.

  20. Entre Deux Drapeaux: Les ouvriers capverdiens au Portugal pendant la période revolutionnaire (1974-1976

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Acker

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marqués par un climat de décolonisation, les mois qui suivirent la Révolution des Oeillets (25 avril 1974 constituèrent une période d’incertitude pour les Capverdiens vivant et travaillant en tant qu’ouvriers au Portugal. Axé sur cet interstice historique de création d’identités post-coloniales (1974-1976, cet article s’interroge sur la marge d’action des ouvriers capverdiens vivant entre deux nations (le Portugal et le Cap Vert encore à (réinventer. Ainsi, l’article s’intéresse aux politiques et aux comportements adoptés par les acteurs sociaux portugais et capverdiens à l’encontre des migrants, mais aussi aux stratégies des migrants eux-mêmes face à l’incertitude, aux crises, et aux phénomènes d’exclusion qui eurent lieu durant la période révolutionnaire.Marcados por um contexto de descolonização, os meses que se seguiram à Revolução dos Cravos (25 de Abril de 1974 constituíram um período de incerteza para os cabo-verdianos que viviam e trabalhavam em Portugal como operários. Centrado nesse interstício histórico de construção de identidades pós-coloniais (1974-1976, este artigo interroga-se sobre a margem de manobra dos trabalhadores cabo-verdianos a viver entre duas nações (Portugal e Cabo Verde ainda por (reinventar. O artigo toma em consideração as políticas e os comportamentos adoptados pelos actores sociais portugueses e cabo-verdianos em relação aos imigrantes, mas também as estratégias dos próprios imigrantes face à incerteza, às crises e aos fenómenos de exclusão que tiveram lugar durante o período revolucionário.

  1. Comparing climate change impacts on crops in Belgium based on CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanuytrecht, E.; Raes, D.; Willems, P.; Semenov, M.

    2012-04-01

    Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are sophisticated tools to study the future evolution of the climate. Yet, the coarse scale of GCMs of hundreds of kilometers raises questions about the suitability for agricultural impact assessments. These assessments are often made at field level and require consideration of interactions at sub-GCM grid scale (e.g., elevation-dependent climatic changes). Regional climate models (RCMs) were developed to provide climate projections at a spatial scale of 25-50 km for limited regions, e.g. Europe (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991). Climate projections from GCMs or RCMs are available as multi-model ensembles. These ensembles are based on large data sets of simulations produced by modelling groups worldwide, who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which climate models were run for a common set of experiments and various emissions scenarios (Knutti et al., 2010). The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change studies is an important step in quantifying uncertainty in impact predictions, which will underpin more informed decisions for adaptation and mitigation to changing climate (Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of the spatial scale of climate projections on climate change impacts for cereals in Belgium. Climate scenarios were based on two multi-model ensembles, one comprising 15 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3; Meehl et al., 2007) with spatial resolution of 200-300 km, the other comprising 9 RCMs of the EU-ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009) with spatial resolution of 25 km. To be useful for agricultural impact assessments, the projections of GCMs and RCMs were downscaled to the field level. Long series (240 cropping seasons) of local-scale climate scenarios were generated by the LARS-WG weather generator (Semenov et al., 2010) via statistical inference. Crop growth and development were simulated with the Aqua

  2. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc., especially

  3. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  4. Influence d'une modulation avec référence à valeur moyenne variable dans un ensemble convertisseur-machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouscayrol, Alain; Pietrzak-David, Maria; de Fornel, Bernard; Foch, Henri

    1994-06-01

    Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) new techniques give better inverter output voltages. So, a potential difference is introduced between the inverter artificial reference point O and the machine neutral point N. This paper proposes a new parameter for the PWM modelling, to represent this O-N voltage variation in the inverter control. This potential difference imposes a system decomposition on the converter-machine set : each reference point is associated to own reference frame. Firstly, the standard case V_NO=0 is studied by the analysis tools. Then, the influence of a V_NO continuous value voltage is shown on the voltage harmonic spectrum and on the machine behaviour. Lastly, a study of PWM with third harmonic injection is realized and shows interest of the new PWM modelling for modern modulations, Les nouvelles techniques de modulation par largeur d'impulsion (MLI) permettent aux ensembles convertisseur-machine de disposer d'un meilleur rapport de tension. En fait, elles imposent une différence de potentiel entre le point de référence de l'onduleur, O, et le point neutre de la machine, N. Cet article propose une nouvelle modélisation de la MLI, avec un degré de liberté supplémentaire, pour prendre en compte cette variation de tension entre O et N (V_NO) dans la commande de l'onduleur. L'utilisation de V_No dans la boucle de commande de l'ensemble convertisseur-machine, nécessite alors la décomposition du système par l'intermédiaire de deux référentiels associés à chaque point de référence. Après avoir vérifié ces deux outils d'analyse dans le cas standard où V_NO = 0, nous étudions l'influence d'un V_NO de type continu sur le spectre des harmoniques de tension et sur le comportement de la machine. Enfin, une étude sur la MLI avec injection d'harmonique 3 valide l'intérêt de cette nouvelle approche quant à l'analyse de modulations moins classiques.

  5. Motor-motor interactions in ensembles of muscle myosin: using theory to connect single molecule to ensemble measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Sam

    2013-03-01

    Interactions between the proteins actin and myosin drive muscle contraction. Properties of a single myosin interacting with an actin filament are largely known, but a trillion myosins work together in muscle. We are interested in how single-molecule properties relate to ensemble function. Myosin's reaction rates depend on force, so ensemble models keep track of both molecular state and force on each molecule. These models make subtle predictions, e.g. that myosin, when part of an ensemble, moves actin faster than when isolated. This acceleration arises because forces between molecules speed reaction kinetics. Experiments support this prediction and allow parameter estimates. A model based on this analysis describes experiments from single molecule to ensemble. In vivo, actin is regulated by proteins that, when present, cause the binding of one myosin to speed the binding of its neighbors; binding becomes cooperative. Although such interactions preclude the mean field approximation, a set of linear ODEs describes these ensembles under simplified experimental conditions. In these experiments cooperativity is strong, with the binding of one molecule affecting ten neighbors on either side. We progress toward a description of myosin ensembles under physiological conditions.

  6. Gazettes sous influence : le Courrier du Bas-Rhin, la Gazette des Deux-Ponts et les sujets touchant la Russie vers 1770

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dulac

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Vers 1770, la campagne anti-russe du gouvernement français tend à dégrader l’image de la Russie, ce qui lèse gravement ses intérêts, notamment quand elle doit emprunter pour financer la guerre avec la Turquie. Aussi le prince Dmitri Alexeevitch Golitsyn, ministre plénipotentiaire à La Haye, se montre-t-il alors très actif sur ce terrain. Sa correspondance avec Pétersbourg témoigne de ses efforts, aux effets inégaux, pour influer sur les informations diffusées par quelques journaux : principalement le Courrier du Bas-Rhin, publié par Jean Manzon à Trèves, sous contrôle prussien, et dans une moindre mesure les deux Gazettes des Deux-Ponts, l’une politique, l’autre littéraire. Le journaliste de Trèves, qui trouve son intérêt à prendre le parti de la Russie, met en œuvre en sa faveur un discours journalistique abondant et parfois très élaboré. Cependant, la ligne du journal subit des fluctuations sensibles, selon l’évolution de la situation et à la suite de diverses interventions, dont celles du roi de Prusse et d’autre part de Stanislas-Auguste, qui pensionne un temps le journaliste. La Gazette des deux Ponts pratique l’information orientée avec plus de finesse, et, comme la gazette littéraire, accorde une large place à la matière russe : mais sur le plan politique, son traitement reste le plus souvent sous influence française et répond rarement aux vœux de D. A. Golitsyn.

  7. A pena e a espada: a Revue des Deux Mondes e a intervenção francesa no México

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Ligia Coelho Prado

    2014-01-01

    Este artigo analisa os textos publicados pela Revue des Deux Mondes a respeito do México, entre 1840 e 1870. A revista expressava a opinião de grupos de intelectuais próximos ao poder político, entendidos aqui como representantes dos interesses nacionais franceses. O México se distinguia, na América Latina, como centro principal de suas atenções. A revista elaborou imagens da França como o mais importante país latino que olhava para sua "irmã de sangue", a nação mexicana, com o desejo de diri...

  8. Sur deux mémoires de d'Alembert l'un concernant le calcul des probabilités, l'autre l'inoculation

    CERN Document Server

    Diderot, Denis

    2015-01-01

    Extrait : ""M. d'Alembert vient de publier ses Opuscules mathématiques. Il y a dans ce recueil deux mémoires qu'il n'est pas impossible de réduire à la langue ordinaire de la raison. L'un a pour objet le calcul des probabilités ; calcul dont l'application a tant d'importance et d'étendu. C'est proprement la science physico-mathématique de la vie. L'autre traite des avantages ou désavantages de l'inoculation.""

  9. Bayesian Processor of Ensemble for Precipitation Forecasting: A Development Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Z.; Krzysztofowicz, R.

    2006-05-01

    The Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE) is a new, theoretically-based technique for probabilistic forecasting of weather variates. It is a generalization of the Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) developed by Krzysztofowicz and Maranzano for processing single values of multiple predictors into a posterior distribution function of a predictand. The BPE processes an ensemble of a predictand generated by multiple integrations of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, and optimally fuses the ensemble with climatic data in order to quantify uncertainty about the predictand. As is well known, Bayes theorem provides the optimal theoretical framework for fusing information from different sources and for obtaining the posterior distribution function of a predictand. Using a family of such distribution functions, a given raw ensemble can be mapped into a posterior ensemble, which is well calibrated, has maximum informativeness, and preserves the spatio-temporal and cross-variate dependence structure of the NWP output fields. The challenge is to develop and test the BPE suitable for operational forecasting. This talk will present the basic design components of the BPE, along with a discussion of the climatic and training data to be used in its potential application at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The technique will be tested first on quasi-normally distributed variates and next on precipitation variates. For reasons of economy, the BPE will be applied on the relatively coarse resolution grid corresponding to the ensemble output, and then the posterior ensemble will be downscaled to finer grids such as that of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).

  10. Quantifying Monte Carlo uncertainty in ensemble Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thulin, Kristian; Naevdal, Geir; Skaug, Hans Julius; Aanonsen, Sigurd Ivar

    2009-01-15

    This report is presenting results obtained during Kristian Thulin PhD study, and is a slightly modified form of a paper submitted to SPE Journal. Kristian Thulin did most of his portion of the work while being a PhD student at CIPR, University of Bergen. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is currently considered one of the most promising methods for conditioning reservoir simulation models to production data. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method based on a low rank approximation of the system covariance matrix. The posterior probability distribution of model variables may be estimated fram the updated ensemble, but because of the low rank covariance approximation, the updated ensemble members become correlated samples from the posterior distribution. We suggest using multiple EnKF runs, each with smaller ensemble size to obtain truly independent samples from the posterior distribution. This allows a point-wise confidence interval for the posterior cumulative distribution function (CDF) to be constructed. We present a methodology for finding an optimal combination of ensemble batch size (n) and number of EnKF runs (m) while keeping the total number of ensemble members ( m x n) constant. The optimal combination of n and m is found through minimizing the integrated mean square error (MSE) for the CDFs and we choose to define an EnKF run with 10.000 ensemble members as having zero Monte Carlo error. The methodology is tested on a simplistic, synthetic 2D model, but should be applicable also to larger, more realistic models. (author). 12 refs., figs.,tabs

  11. Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crestani

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The significance of estimating the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is relevant to the possibility of defining the space and time evolution of a non-reactive plume, since the transport of a solute is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on-site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.

  12. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter for geophysical data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the forecast error covariance matrix B is estimated from a sample (ensemble), which inevitably implies a degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is especially large in high dimensions, where the affordable ensemble size is orders of magnitude less than the dimensionality of the system. Common remedies include ad-hoc devices like variance inflation and covariance localization. The goal of this study is to optimize the account for the inherent uncertainty of the B matrix in EnKF. Following the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010), we explicitly admit that the B matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (x) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components P and Q of the B matrix into the extended control vector (x,P,Q). Similarly, we break the traditional forecast ensemble into the predictability-error related ensemble and model-error related ensemble. The reason for the separation of model errors from predictability errors is the fundamental difference between the two sources of error. Model error are external (i.e. do not depend on the filter's performance) whereas predictability errors are internal to a filter (i.e. are determined by the filter's behavior). At the analysis step, we specify Inverse Wishart based priors for the random matrices P and Q and conditionally Gaussian prior for the state x. Then, we update the prior distribution of (x,P,Q) using both observation and ensemble data, so that ensemble members are used as generalized observations and ordinary observations are allowed to influence the covariances. We show that for linear dynamics and linear observation operators, conditional Gaussianity of the state is preserved in the course of filtering. At the forecast

  13. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  14. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schaake

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004. The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved.

    Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods.

    The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other

  15. Universal critical wrapping probabilities in the canonical ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Hu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Universal dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios and wrapping probabilities, play an important role in the study of critical phenomena. We study the finite-size scaling behavior of the wrapping probability for the Potts model in the random-cluster representation, under the constraint that the total number of occupied bonds is fixed, so that the canonical ensemble applies. We derive that, in the limit L→∞, the critical values of the wrapping probability are different from those of the unconstrained model, i.e. the model in the grand-canonical ensemble, but still universal, for systems with 2yt−d>0 where yt=1/ν is the thermal renormalization exponent and d is the spatial dimension. Similar modifications apply to other dimensionless quantities, such as Binder ratios. For systems with 2yt−d≤0, these quantities share same critical universal values in the two ensembles. It is also derived that new finite-size corrections are induced. These findings apply more generally to systems in the canonical ensemble, e.g. the dilute Potts model with a fixed total number of vacancies. Finally, we formulate an efficient cluster-type algorithm for the canonical ensemble, and confirm these predictions by extensive simulations.

  16. Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares -- First Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Guerra, J. A.; Uritsky, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte-Carlo-type algorithm that applies a decision threshold PthP_{th} to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the data for 13 recent solar active regions between years 2012 - 2014, we found that linear combination methods can improve the overall probabilistic prediction and improve the categorical prediction for certain values of decision thresholds. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of PthP_{th}. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights calculated by averaging over the sample, performed similarly to a equally weighted model. The values PthP_{th} for which the ensemble forecast performs the best are 25 % for M-class flares and 15 % for X-class flares. When the human-adjusted probabilities from NOAA are excluded from the ensemble, the ensemble performance in terms of the Heidke score, is reduced.

  17. Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2, pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day, however, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.

  18. Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2, pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.

  19. An adaptive additive inflation scheme for Ensemble Kalman Filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Matthias; Janjic, Tijana

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics requires an accurate estimate for the uncertainty of the forecast in order to obtain an optimal combination with available observations. This uncertainty has two components, firstly the uncertainty which originates in the the initial condition of that forecast itself and secondly the error of the numerical model used. While the former can be approximated quite successfully with an ensemble of forecasts (an additional sampling error will occur), little is known about the latter. For ensemble data assimilation, ad-hoc methods to address model error include multiplicative and additive inflation schemes, possibly also flow-dependent. The additive schemes rely on samples for the model error e.g. from short-term forecast tendencies or differences of forecasts with varying resolutions. However since these methods work in ensemble space (i.e. act directly on the ensemble perturbations) the sampling error is fixed and can be expected to affect the skill substiantially. In this contribution we show how inflation can be generalized to take into account more degrees of freedom and what improvements for future operational ensemble data assimilation can be expected from this, also in comparison with other inflation schemes.

  20. Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Sienz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Retrospective prediction experiments have to be performed to estimate the skill of decadal prediction systems. These are necessarily restricted in the number due to the computational constraints. From weather and seasonal prediction it is known that the ensemble size is crucial to yield reliable predictions. Differences are expected for decadal predictions due to the differing time-scales of the involved processes and the longer prediction horizon. A conceptual model is applied that enables the systematic analysis of ensemble size dependencies in a framework close to that of decadal predictions. Differences are quantified in terms of the confidence intervals coverage and the power of statistical tests for prediction scores. In addition, the concepts are applied to decadal predicitions of the MiKlip Baseline1 system. It is shown that small ensemble, as well as hindcast sample sizes lead to biased test performances in a way that the detection of a present prediction skill is hampered. Experiments with ensemble sizes smaller than 10 are not recommended to evaluate decadal prediction skill or as basis for the prediction system developement. For regions with low signal-to-noise ratios much larger ensembles are required and it is shown that in this case successful decadal predictions are possible for the Central European summer temperatures.

  1. Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Emissions in Hawai’i

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Kristofer Pattantyus

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Deterministic model forecasts do not convey to the end users the forecast uncertainty the models possess as a result of physics parameterizations, simplifications in model representation of physical processes, and errors in initial conditions. This lack of understanding leads to a level of uncertainty in the forecasted value when only a single deterministic model forecast is available. Increasing computational power and parallel software architecture allows multiple simulations to be carried out simultaneously that yield useful measures of model uncertainty that can be derived from ensemble model results. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integration Trajectory and Dispersion model has the ability to generate ensemble forecasts. A meteorological ensemble was formed to create probabilistic forecast products and an ensemble mean forecast for volcanic emissions from the Kilauea volcano that impacts the state of Hawai’i. The probabilistic forecast products show uncertainty in pollutant concentrations that are especially useful for decision-making regarding public health. Initial comparison of the ensemble mean forecasts with observations and a single model forecast show improvements in event timing for both sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol forecasts.  

  2. Ensemble of Thermostatically Controlled Loads: Statistical Physics Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Skolkovo Inst. of Science and Technology, Moscow (Russia); Chernyak, Vladimir [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (United States). Dept. of Chemistry

    2017-01-17

    Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature - changing from on to off , and vice versa, depending on temperature. Aggregation of a large group of similar devices into a statistical ensemble is considered, where the devices operate following the same dynamics subject to stochastic perturbations and randomized, Poisson on/off switching policy. We analyze, using theoretical and computational tools of statistical physics, how the ensemble relaxes to a stationary distribution and establish relation between the re- laxation and statistics of the probability flux, associated with devices' cycling in the mixed (discrete, switch on/off , and continuous, temperature) phase space. This allowed us to derive and analyze spec- trum of the non-equilibrium (detailed balance broken) statistical system. and uncover how switching policy affects oscillatory trend and speed of the relaxation. Relaxation of the ensemble is of a practical interest because it describes how the ensemble recovers from significant perturbations, e.g. forceful temporary switching o aimed at utilizing flexibility of the ensemble in providing "demand response" services relieving consumption temporarily to balance larger power grid. We discuss how the statistical analysis can guide further development of the emerging demand response technology.

  3. Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea; Boomsma, Wouter; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Hamelryck, Thomas

    2014-08-12

    The motions of biological macromolecules are tightly coupled to their functions. However, while the study of fast motions has become increasingly feasible in recent years, the study of slower, biologically important motions remains difficult. Here, we present a method to construct native state ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3). The ensemble accurately describes both local and nonlocal backbone fluctuations as judged by its reproduction of complementary experimental data. While it is difficult to assess precise time-scales of the observed motions, our results suggest that it is possible to construct realistic conformational ensembles of biomolecules very efficiently. The approach may allow for a dramatic reduction in the computational as well as experimental resources needed to obtain accurate conformational ensembles of biological macromolecules in a statistically sound manner.

  4. Relations entre associations féminines palestiniennes des deux côtés de la Ligne verte

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth Marteu

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Les associations féminines arabes en Israël entretiennent des relations diverses avec leurs homologues des Territoires palestiniens. Basés sur des solidarités nationales, des coopérations professionnelles et/ou une assistance humanitaire croissante, les contacts entre Palestiniens des deux côtés de la Ligne verte sont en constante reconfiguration. Cet article se propose d’étudier les rapports transfrontaliers entre populations palestiniennes d’Israël et des Territoires occupés à l’aune de leur mobilisation féminine. En étudiant les liens qui se sont tissés entre associations de femmes dans les espaces israélo-palestiniens, cette recherche permet de comprendre les réajustements de la solidarité interpalestinienne. Si le déclenchement en 2000 de la seconde Intifada a renforcé les citoyens arabes dans leur affirmation d’une identité palestinienne, les enjeux immédiats de leur mobilisation sociale et politique restent ancrés dans les frontières de l’Etat israélien. De la même manière, la détérioration de la situation humanitaire dans les Territoires palestiniens conditionne la localisation des répertoires d’action des organisations civiles. Ainsi, quand bien même certains mouvements nationalistes et islamiques arabes défendraient l’idée d’une mobilisation palestinienne transfrontalière, les réalités et les priorités locales limitent, pour l’heure, toute concrétisation d’envergure.Arab women’s organizations in Israel maintain various relations with their Palestinian counterparts. Based on national solidarities, professional cooperations and/or increasing humanitarian assistance, contacts between Palestinians through the Green Line are in constant reconfiguration. This paper focuses on women’s mobilization in order to highlight transborder relations between Palestinian people from Israel and the Palestinian Territories. By studying links that developped between women’s organizations in the

  5. ETUDE DES PRODUITS DE L’INTERACTION DE DEUX DISTRIBUTIONS DISTINCTES DE PARTICULES RADIOLYTIQUES CREEES LORS DE LA RADIOLYSE DE L’EAU PAR DES ELECTRONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A SAIFI

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available En vue d’améliorer les performances du modèle déterministe quant à l’étude des interactions des électrons avec l’eau liquide, nous avons élaboré des codes numériques basés sur la résolution de l’équation de diffusion qui nous permettent de suivre l’évolution spatio-temporelle jusqu’à la jonction, de deux distributions distinctes d’espèces radiolytiques, créées 10-12 s après la radiolyse de l’eau par des électrons d’énergies comprises entre 200 et 1000 eV. Les concentrations, ainsi que les rendements radiolytiques de ces espèces (, H, OH, , H2, H2O2, , O2, , HO2, ont été estimés aussi bien dans l’espace englobant les deux distributions que dans la région comprise entre ces mêmes distributions. Nos résultats ont ensuite été comparés avec ceux obtenus par les méthodes semi-implicite et stochastique.

  6. Monogènes parasites de Clariidae (Teleostei, Siluriformes au Cameroun : I. Description de deux nouvelles espèces du genre Gyrodactylus dans le bassin du Nyong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nack J.

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available L’étude des parasites branchiaux et cutanés de trois espèces de Poissons du genre Clarias : C. camerunensis, C. jaensis et C. pachynema pêchés dans le bassin du Nyong (Cameroun a révélé la présence de deux espèces nouvelles de Monogènes du genre Gyrodactylus Nordmann : G. camerunensis n. sp. et G. nyongensis n. sp parasites de Clarias camerunensis, C. jaensis et C. pachynema. Gyrodactylus camerunensis n. sp. se sépare aisément de G. nyongensis n. sp. par la taille plus faible des pièces sclérifiées du hapteur. Ces deux nouvelles espèces se distinguent aussi des Gyrodactylus africains les plus proches, G. rysavyi, G. clarii et G. alberti par la morphologie et la taille des sclérites du hapteur. L’étude de leur spécificité montre qu’elle est du type stenoxène (mesosténoxène.

  7. Large unbalanced credit scoring using Lasso-logistic regression ensemble.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Wang

    Full Text Available Recently, various ensemble learning methods with different base classifiers have been proposed for credit scoring problems. However, for various reasons, there has been little research using logistic regression as the base classifier. In this paper, given large unbalanced data, we consider the plausibility of ensemble learning using regularized logistic regression as the base classifier to deal with credit scoring problems. In this research, the data is first balanced and diversified by clustering and bagging algorithms. Then we apply a Lasso-logistic regression learning ensemble to evaluate the credit risks. We show that the proposed algorithm outperforms popular credit scoring models such as decision tree, Lasso-logistic regression and random forests in terms of AUC and F-measure. We also provide two importance measures for the proposed model to identify important variables in the data.

  8. An ensemble perspective on multi-layer networks

    CERN Document Server

    Wider, Nicolas; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank

    2015-01-01

    We study properties of multi-layered, interconnected networks from an ensemble perspective, i.e. we analyze ensembles of multi-layer networks that share similar aggregate characteristics. Using a diffusive process that evolves on a multi-layer network, we analyze how the speed of diffusion depends on the aggregate characteristics of both intra- and inter-layer connectivity. Through a block-matrix model representing the distinct layers, we construct transition matrices of random walkers on multi-layer networks, and estimate expected properties of multi-layer networks using a mean-field approach. In addition, we quantify and explore conditions on the link topology that allow to estimate the ensemble average by only considering aggregate statistics of the layers. Our approach can be used when only partial information is available, like it is usually the case for real-world multi-layer complex systems.

  9. Large unbalanced credit scoring using Lasso-logistic regression ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hong; Xu, Qingsong; Zhou, Lifeng

    2015-01-01

    Recently, various ensemble learning methods with different base classifiers have been proposed for credit scoring problems. However, for various reasons, there has been little research using logistic regression as the base classifier. In this paper, given large unbalanced data, we consider the plausibility of ensemble learning using regularized logistic regression as the base classifier to deal with credit scoring problems. In this research, the data is first balanced and diversified by clustering and bagging algorithms. Then we apply a Lasso-logistic regression learning ensemble to evaluate the credit risks. We show that the proposed algorithm outperforms popular credit scoring models such as decision tree, Lasso-logistic regression and random forests in terms of AUC and F-measure. We also provide two importance measures for the proposed model to identify important variables in the data.

  10. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Scheuerer, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). We model precipitation amounts by a generalized extreme value distribution that is left-censored at zero. This distribution permits modelling precipitation on the original scale without prior transformation of the data. A closed form expression for its continuous rank probability score can be derived and permits computationally efficient model fitting. We discuss an extension of our approach that incorporates further statistics characterizing the spatial variability of precipitation amounts in the vicinity of the location of interest. The proposed EMOS method is applied to daily 18-h forecasts of 6-h accumulated precipitation over Germany in 2011 using the COSMO-DE ensemble prediction system operated by the Germa...

  11. Cavity quantum electrodynamics with a Rydberg-blocked atomic ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guerlin, Christine; Brion, Etienne; Esslinger, Tilman

    2010-01-01

    The realization of a Jaynes-Cummings model in the optical domain is proposed for an atomic ensemble. The scheme exploits the collective coupling of the atoms to a quantized cavity mode and the nonlinearity introduced by coupling to high-lying Rydberg states. A two-photon transition resonantly...... effective Jaynes-Cummings model. We use numerical simulations to show that the cavity transmission can be used to reveal detailed properties of the Jaynes-Cummings ladder of excited states and that the atomic nonlinearity gives rise to highly nontrivial photon emission from the cavity. Finally, we suggest...... couples the single-atom ground state |g> to a Rydberg state |e>via a nonresonant intermediate state |i>, but due to the interaction between Rydberg atoms only a single atom can be resonantly excited in the ensemble. This restricts the state space of the ensemble to the collective ground state |G...

  12. Support vector machine ensemble using rough sets theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A support vector machine (SVM) ensemble classifier is proposed. Performance of SVM trained in an input space consisting of all the information from many sources is not always good. The strategy that the original input space is partitioned into several input subspaces usually works for improving the performance. Different from conventional partition methods, the partition method used in this paper, rough sets theory based attribute reduction, allows the input subspaces partially overlapped. These input subspaces can offer complementary information about hidden data patterns. In every subspace, an SVM sub-classifier is learned. With the information fusion techniques, those SVM sub-classifiers with better performance are selected and combined to construct an SVM ensemble. The proposed method is applied to decisionmaking of medical diagnosis. Comparison of performance between our method and several other popular ensemble methods is done. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach can make full use of the information contained in data and improve the decision-making performance.

  13. Circular β ensembles,CMV representation,characteristic polynomials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this note we first briefly review some recent progress in the study of the circular β ensemble on the unit circle,where β > 0 is a model parameter.In the special cases β = 1,2 and 4,this ensemble describes the joint probability density of eigenvalues of random orthogonal,unitary and sympletic matrices,respectively.For general β,Killip and Nenciu discovered a five-diagonal sparse matrix model,the CMV representation.This representation is new even in the case β = 2;and it has become a powerful tool for studying the circular β ensemble.We then give an elegant derivation for the moment identities of characteristic polynomials via the link with orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle.

  14. Purification of an unpolarized spin ensemble into entangled singlet pairs

    CERN Document Server

    Greiner, Johannes N; Wrachtrup, Jörg

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical polarization of nuclear spin ensembles is of central importance for magnetic resonance studies, precision sensing and for applications in quantum information theory. Here we propose a scheme to generate long-lived singlet pairs in an unpolarized nuclear spin ensemble which is dipolar coupled to the electron spins of a Nitrogen Vacancy center in diamond. The quantum mechanical back-action induced by frequent spin-selective readout of the NV centers allows the nuclear spins to pair up into maximally entangled singlet pairs. Counterintuitively, the robustness of the pair formation to dephasing noise improves with increasing size of the spin ensemble. We also show how the paired nuclear spin state allows for enhanced sensing capabilities of NV centers in diamond.

  15. Properties of the Affine Invariant Ensemble Sampler in high dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Huijser, David; Brewer, Brendon J

    2015-01-01

    We present theoretical and practical properties of the affine-invariant ensemble sampler Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In high dimensions the affine-invariant ensemble sampler shows unusual and undesirable properties. We demonstrate this with an $n$-dimensional correlated Gaussian toy problem with a known mean and covariance structure, and analyse the burn-in period. The burn-in period seems to be short, however upon closer inspection we discover the mean and the variance of the target distribution do not match the expected, known values. This problem becomes greater as $n$ increases. We therefore conclude that the affine-invariant ensemble sampler should be used with caution in high dimensional problems. We also present some theoretical results explaining this behaviour.

  16. Optical properties of indium phosphide nanowire ensembles at various temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohn, Andrew J; Onishi, Takehiro; Kobayashi, Nobuhiko P [Baskin School of Engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Nanostructured Energy Conversion Technology and Research (NECTAR), Advanced Studies Laboratories, University of California Santa Cruz-NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2010-09-03

    Ensembles that contain two types (zincblende and wurtzite) of indium phosphide nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces were studied by micro-photoluminescence and micro-Raman spectroscopy at various low temperatures. The obtained spectra are discussed with the emphasis on the effects of differing lattice types, geometries, and crystallographic orientations present within an ensemble of nanowires grown on non-single crystalline surfaces. In the photoluminescence spectra, a typical Varshni dependence of band gap energy on temperature was observed for emissions from zincblende nanowires and in the high temperature regime energy transfer from excitonic transitions and band-edge transitions was identified. In contrast, the photoluminescence emissions associated with wurtzite nanowires were rather insensitive to temperature. Raman spectra were collected simultaneously from zincblende and wurtzite nanowires coexisting in an ensemble. Raman peaks of the wurtzite nanowires are interpreted as those related to the zincblende nanowires by a folding of the phonon dispersion.

  17. Toward a General-Purpose Heterogeneous Ensemble for Pattern Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loris Nanni

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We perform an extensive study of the performance of different classification approaches on twenty-five datasets (fourteen image datasets and eleven UCI data mining datasets. The aim is to find General-Purpose (GP heterogeneous ensembles (requiring little to no parameter tuning that perform competitively across multiple datasets. The state-of-the-art classifiers examined in this study include the support vector machine, Gaussian process classifiers, random subspace of adaboost, random subspace of rotation boosting, and deep learning classifiers. We demonstrate that a heterogeneous ensemble based on the simple fusion by sum rule of different classifiers performs consistently well across all twenty-five datasets. The most important result of our investigation is demonstrating that some very recent approaches, including the heterogeneous ensemble we propose in this paper, are capable of outperforming an SVM classifier (implemented with LibSVM, even when both kernel selection and SVM parameters are carefully tuned for each dataset.

  18. Toward a General-Purpose Heterogeneous Ensemble for Pattern Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanni, Loris; Brahnam, Sheryl; Ghidoni, Stefano; Lumini, Alessandra

    2015-01-01

    We perform an extensive study of the performance of different classification approaches on twenty-five datasets (fourteen image datasets and eleven UCI data mining datasets). The aim is to find General-Purpose (GP) heterogeneous ensembles (requiring little to no parameter tuning) that perform competitively across multiple datasets. The state-of-the-art classifiers examined in this study include the support vector machine, Gaussian process classifiers, random subspace of adaboost, random subspace of rotation boosting, and deep learning classifiers. We demonstrate that a heterogeneous ensemble based on the simple fusion by sum rule of different classifiers performs consistently well across all twenty-five datasets. The most important result of our investigation is demonstrating that some very recent approaches, including the heterogeneous ensemble we propose in this paper, are capable of outperforming an SVM classifier (implemented with LibSVM), even when both kernel selection and SVM parameters are carefully tuned for each dataset.

  19. Quantum teleportation between remote atomic-ensemble quantum memories

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Xiao-Hui; Li, Che-Ming; Yuan, Zhen-Sheng; Lu, Chao-Yang; Pan, Jian-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Quantum teleportation and quantum memory are two crucial elements for large-scale quantum networks. With the help of prior distributed entanglement as a "quantum channel", quantum teleportation provides an intriguing means to faithfully transfer quantum states among distant locations without actual transmission of the physical carriers. Quantum memory enables controlled storage and retrieval of fast-flying photonic quantum bits with stationary matter systems, which is essential to achieve the scalability required for large-scale quantum networks. Combining these two capabilities, here we realize quantum teleportation between two remote atomic-ensemble quantum memory nodes, each composed of 100 million rubidium atoms and connected by a 150-meter optical fiber. The spinwave state of one atomic ensemble is mapped to a propagating photon, and subjected to Bell-state measurements with another single photon that is entangled with the spinwave state of the other ensemble. Two-photon detection events herald the succe...

  20. Matrix product purifications for canonical ensembles and quantum number distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Thomas

    2016-09-01

    Matrix product purifications (MPPs) are a very efficient tool for the simulation of strongly correlated quantum many-body systems at finite temperatures. When a system features symmetries, these can be used to reduce computation costs substantially. It is straightforward to compute an MPP of a grand-canonical ensemble, also when symmetries are exploited. This paper provides and demonstrates methods for the efficient computation of MPPs of canonical ensembles under utilization of symmetries. Furthermore, we present a scheme for the evaluation of global quantum number distributions using matrix product density operators (MPDOs). We provide exact matrix product representations for canonical infinite-temperature states, and discuss how they can be constructed alternatively by applying matrix product operators to vacuum-type states or by using entangler Hamiltonians. A demonstration of the techniques for Heisenberg spin-1 /2 chains explains why the difference in the energy densities of canonical and grand-canonical ensembles decays as 1 /L .

  1. A Random Forest-based ensemble method for activity recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zengtao; Mo, Lingfei; Li, Meng

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-sensor ensemble approach to human physical activity (PA) recognition, using random forest. We designed an ensemble learning algorithm, which integrates several independent Random Forest classifiers based on different sensor feature sets to build a more stable, more accurate and faster classifier for human activity recognition. To evaluate the algorithm, PA data collected from the PAMAP (Physical Activity Monitoring for Aging People), which is a standard, publicly available database, was utilized to train and test. The experimental results show that the algorithm is able to correctly recognize 19 PA types with an accuracy of 93.44%, while the training is faster than others. The ensemble classifier system based on the RF (Random Forest) algorithm can achieve high recognition accuracy and fast calculation.

  2. Superradiance with an ensemble of superconducting flux qubits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Neill; Matsuzaki, Yuichiro; Kakuyanagi, Kosuke; Ishida, Natsuko; Saito, Shiro; Nori, Franco

    2016-12-01

    Superconducting flux qubits are a promising candidate for realizing quantum information processing and quantum simulations. Such devices behave like artificial atoms, with the advantage that one can easily tune the "atoms" internal properties. Here, by harnessing this flexibility, we propose a technique to minimize the inhomogeneous broadening of a large ensemble of flux qubits by tuning only the external flux. In addition, as an example of many-body physics in such an ensemble, we show how to observe superradiance, and its quadratic scaling with ensemble size, using a tailored microwave control pulse that takes advantage of the inhomogeneous broadening itself to excite only a subensemble of the qubits. Our scheme opens up an approach to using superconducting circuits to explore the properties of quantum many-body systems.

  3. Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

    2011-12-01

    The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

  4. Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasting at Horns Rev

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    of probabilistic forecasts, the resolution of which may be maximized by using meteorological ensemble predictions as input. The paper concentrates on the test case of the Horns Rev wind form over a period of approximately 1 year, in order to describe, apply and discuss a complete ensemble-based probabilistic...... the benefit of yielding predictive distributions that are of increased reliability (in a probabilistic sense) in comparison with the raw ensemble forecasts, at the some time taking advantage of their high resolution. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which ore recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained predictive distributions. Such a methodology has...

  5. Ensembles of detectors for online detection of transient changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artemov, Alexey; Burnaev, Evgeny

    2015-12-01

    Classical change-point detection procedures assume a change-point model to be known and a change consisting in establishing a new observations regime, i.e. the change lasts infinitely long. These modeling assumptions contradicts applied problems statements. Therefore, even theoretically optimal statistics in practice very often fail when detecting transient changes online. In this work in order to overcome limitations of classical change-point detection procedures we consider approaches to constructing ensembles of change-point detectors, i.e. algorithms that use many detectors to reliably identify a change-point. We propose a learning paradigm and specific implementations of ensembles for change detection of short-term (transient) changes in observed time series. We demonstrate by means of numerical experiments that the performance of an ensemble is superior to that of the conventional change-point detection procedures.

  6. Generalized Hypergeometric Ensembles: Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Complex Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Casiraghi, Giona; Scholtes, Ingo; Schweitzer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studyin...

  7. Four-dimensional Localization and the Iterative Ensemble Kalman Smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquet, M.

    2015-12-01

    The iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) is a data assimilation method meant for efficiently tracking the state ofnonlinear geophysical models. It combines an ensemble of model states to estimate the errors similarly to the ensemblesquare root Kalman filter, with a 4D-variational analysis performed within the ensemble space. As such it belongs tothe class of ensemble variational methods. Recently introduced 4DEnVar or the 4D-LETKF can be seen as particular casesof the scheme. The IEnKS was shown to outperform 4D-Var, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother, with low-ordermodels in all investigated dynamical regimes. Like any ensemble method, it could require the use of localization of theanalysis when the state space dimension is high. However, localization for the IEnKS is not as straightforward as forthe EnKF. Indeed, localization needs to be defined across time, and it needs to be as much as possible consistent withthe dynamical flow within the data assimilation variational window. We show that a Liouville equation governs the timeevolution of the localization operator, which is linked to the evolution of the error correlations. It is argued thatits time integration strongly depends on the forecast dynamics. Using either covariance localization or domainlocalization, we propose and test several localization strategies meant to address the issue: (i) a constant and uniformlocalization, (ii) the propagation through the window of a restricted set of dominant modes of the error covariancematrix, (iii) the approximate propagation of the localization operator using model covariant local domains. Theseschemes are illustrated on the one-dimensional Lorenz 40-variable model.

  8. Understanding the structural ensembles of a highly extended disordered protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daughdrill, Gary W; Kashtanov, Stepan; Stancik, Amber; Hill, Shannon E; Helms, Gregory; Muschol, Martin; Receveur-Bréchot, Véronique; Ytreberg, F Marty

    2012-01-01

    Developing a comprehensive description of the equilibrium structural ensembles for intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) is essential to understanding their function. The p53 transactivation domain (p53TAD) is an IDP that interacts with multiple protein partners and contains numerous phosphorylation sites. Multiple techniques were used to investigate the equilibrium structural ensemble of p53TAD in its native and chemically unfolded states. The results from these experiments show that the native state of p53TAD has dimensions similar to a classical random coil while the chemically unfolded state is more extended. To investigate the molecular properties responsible for this behavior, a novel algorithm that generates diverse and unbiased structural ensembles of IDPs was developed. This algorithm was used to generate a large pool of plausible p53TAD structures that were reweighted to identify a subset of structures with the best fit to small angle X-ray scattering data. High weight structures in the native state ensemble show features that are localized to protein binding sites and regions with high proline content. The features localized to the protein binding sites are mostly eliminated in the chemically unfolded ensemble; while, the regions with high proline content remain relatively unaffected. Data from NMR experiments support these results, showing that residues from the protein binding sites experience larger environmental changes upon unfolding by urea than regions with high proline content. This behavior is consistent with the urea-induced exposure of nonpolar and aromatic side-chains in the protein binding sites that are partially excluded from solvent in the native state ensemble.

  9. Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

  10. Ensemble data assimilation for the reconstruction of mantle circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocher, Marie; Coltice, Nicolas; Fournier, Alexandre; Tackley, Paul

    2016-04-01

    The surface tectonics of the Earth is the result of mantle dynamics. This link between internal and surface dynamics can be used to reconstruct the evolution of mantle circulation. This is classically done by imposing plate tectonics reconstructions as boundary conditions on numerical models of mantle convection. However, this technique does not account for uncertainties in plate tectonics reconstructions and does not allow any dynamical feedback of mantle dynamics on surface tectonics to develop. Mantle convection models are now able to produce surface tectonics comparable to that of the Earth to first order. We capitalize on these convection models to propose a more consistent integration of plate tectonics reconstructions into mantle convection models. For this purpose, we use the ensemble Kalman filter. This method has been developed and successfully applied to meteorology, oceanography and even more recently outer core dynamics. It consists in integrating sequentially a time series of data into a numerical model, starting from an ensemble of possible initial states. The initial ensemble of states is designed to represent an approximation of the probability density function (pdf) of the a priori state of the system. Whenever new observations are available, each member of the ensemble states is corrected considering both the approximated pdf of the state, and the pdf of the new data. Between two observation times, each ensemble member evolution is computed independently, using the convection model. This technique provides at each time an approximation of the pdf of the state of the system, in the form of a finite ensemble of states. We perform synthetic experiments to assess the efficiency of this method for the reconstruction of mantle circulation.

  11. Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Bo

    2015-11-11

    We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

  12. Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Glass Transition Behavior of Polyimide Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The effect of chromophores to the glass transition temperature of polyimide ensemble has been investigated by means of molecular dynamics simulation in conjunction with barrier analysis. Simulated Tg results indicated a good agreement with experimental value. This study showed the MD simulation could estimate the effect of chromophores to the Tg of polyimide ensemble conveniently and an estimation approach method had a surprising deviation of Tg from experiment. At the same time, a polyimide structure with higher barrier energy was designed and validated by MD simulation.

  13. Mesoscale hydrological ensemble forecasting for water resources management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortin, V. [Meteorological Research Div., Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec (Canada); Turcotte, R. [Government of Quebec, Centre of Quebec' s Water Expertise, Quebec (Canada); Anctil, F. [Univ. Laval, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Laval, Quebec (Canada); Favre, A.-C. [INRS, Water Earth and Environment, Quebec (Canada); Petit, Th. [Univ. Laval, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Laval, Quebec (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This poster discusses meso-scale hydrological ensemble forecasting for water resources management. Environment Canada will produce a 20 member meso-scale (35 km), short range (48 h) meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS). Each of the 20 members of the global EPS will be dynamically down scaled from 100 to 35 km over North America using limited area model GEM-LAM. Preliminary tests have been conducted on Lie'vre watershed to assess the impact of using short range M-EPS for hydrological forecasting.

  14. Reservoir History Matching Using Ensemble Kalman Filters with Anamorphosis Transforms

    KAUST Repository

    Aman, Beshir M.

    2012-12-01

    This work aims to enhance the Ensemble Kalman Filter performance by transforming the non-Gaussian state variables into Gaussian variables to be a step closer to optimality. This is done by using univariate and multivariate Box-Cox transformation. Some History matching methods such as Kalman filter, particle filter and the ensemble Kalman filter are reviewed and applied to a test case in the reservoir application. The key idea is to apply the transformation before the update step and then transform back after applying the Kalman correction. In general, the results of the multivariate method was promising, despite the fact it over-estimated some variables.

  15. Probabilistic Determination of Native State Ensembles of Proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsson, Simon; Vögeli, Beat Rolf; Cavalli, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The motions of biological macromolecules are tightly coupled to their functions. However, while the study of fast motions has become increasingly feasible in recent years, the study of slower, biologically important motions remains difficult. Here, we present a method to construct native state...... ensembles of proteins by the combination of physical force fields and experimental data through modern statistical methodology. As an example, we use NMR residual dipolar couplings to determine a native state ensemble of the extensively studied third immunoglobulin binding domain of protein G (GB3...

  16. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...

  17. Image Region Selection and Ensemble for Face Recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin Geng; Zhi-Hua Zhou

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a novel framework for face recognition, namely Selective Ensemble of Image Regions (SEIR), is proposed. In this framework, all possible regions in the face image are regarded as a certain kind of features. There are two main steps in SEIR: the first step is to automatically select several regions from all possible candidates; the second step is to construct classifier ensemble from the selected regions. An implementation of SEIR based on multiple eigenspaces, namely SEME, is also proposed in this paper. SEME is analyzed and compared with eigenface, PCA + LDA, eigenfeature, and eigenface + eigenfeature through experiments. The experimental results show that SEME achieves the best performance.

  18. Inhomogeneous dephasing masks coherence lifetimes in ensemble measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelzer, Kenley M; Griffin, Graham B; Gray, Stephen K; Engel, Gregory S

    2012-04-28

    An open question at the forefront of modern physical sciences is what role, if any, quantum effects may play in biological sensing and energy transport mechanisms. One area of such research concerns the possibility of coherent energy transport in photosynthetic systems. Spectroscopic evidence of long-lived quantum coherence in photosynthetic light-harvesting pigment protein complexes (PPCs), along with theoretical modeling of PPCs, has indicated that coherent energy transport might boost efficiency of energy transport in photosynthesis. Accurate assessment of coherence lifetimes is crucial for modeling the extent to which quantum effects participate in this energy transfer, because such quantum effects can only contribute to mechanisms proceeding on timescales over which the coherences persist. While spectroscopy is a useful way to measure coherence lifetimes, inhomogeneity in the transition energies across the measured ensemble may lead to underestimation of coherence lifetimes from spectroscopic experiments. Theoretical models of antenna complexes generally model a single system, and direct comparison of single system models to ensemble averaged experimental data may lead to systematic underestimation of coherence lifetimes, distorting much of the current discussion. In this study, we use simulations of the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex to model single complexes as well as averaged ensembles to demonstrate and roughly quantify the effect of averaging over an inhomogeneous ensemble on measured coherence lifetimes. We choose to model the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex because that system has been a focus for much of the recent discussion of quantum effects in biology, and use an early version of the well known environment-assisted quantum transport model to facilitate straightforward comparison between the current model and past work. Although ensemble inhomogeneity is known to lead to shorter lifetimes of observed oscillations (simply inhomogeneous spectral

  19. Ensemble classi…cation methods for autism disordered speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoubir Abdeslem Benselama

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the results of our investigation on Autism classifi…cation by applying ensemble classi…ers to disordered speech signals. The aim is to distinguish between Autism sub-classes by comparing an ensemble combining three decision methods, the sequential minimization optimization (SMO algorithm, the random forests (RF, and the feature-subspace aggregating approach (Feating. The conducted experiments allowed a reduction of 30% of the feature space with an accuracy increase over the baseline of 8.66% in the development set and 6.62% in the test set.

  20. Un aspect nouveau de la prospection sismique en appliquant la théorie des sous-ensembles flous Improvement of Seismic Prospecting by Using Fuzzy Subsets Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bois P.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Durant les dix dernières années, la théorie des sous-ensembles flous a connu un intérêt croissant grâce aux travaux de Zadeh [1]. Cette théorie a vu son champ d'application s'étendre à différentes branches des mathématiques pures et appliquées en particulier à la topologie, à la théorie des graphes, des automates et à la reconnaissance des formes. Son but est d'analyser l'imprécision qui se glisse partout dans le comportement humain et dans la connaissance humaine. Cet article donne deux applications de la théorie des sous-ensembles flous à la prospection sismique. La première concerne l'interprétation d'une section sismique qui consiste à tracer une carte du sous-sol montrant la position des différents horizons sismiques situés au dessous de la surface du sol. Le problème qui se pose au sismicien est de trouver la structure géologique correspondante dans un plan vertical à la surface du sol. La seconde est la détermination de la nature des réservoirs contenant des hydrocarbures. On utilisera une méthode s'appuyant sur la reconnaissance des formes avec apprentissage préalable. Cette méthode consiste à comparer la nature d'un réservoir qui a été foré à celle d'un réservoir inconnu. Le réservoir connu joue le rôle du moniteur dans le processus d'apprentissage. Pour ce faire, un algorithme est conçu utilisant la méthode de Burg appliquée à des portions de traces sismiques représentatives des deux réservoirs. Enfin, une analyse floue des données représentant ces deux réservoirs sert de critère pour décider s'ils sont de nature identique ou différente. During the past decade, interest in fuzzy subsets theory has led to the development of a well-organized theory developed by Zadeh [1]. This theory has grown up, exploring and developing various branches of pure and applied mathematics, including topology, graph theory, mapping, automata and pattern recognition. Basically, the theory of fuzzy subsets

  1. Variabilité chimique et intérêt économique des huiles essentielles de deux menthes sauvages : Mentha pulegium (Fliou) et Mentha rotundifolia (Domrane) de l’ouest algérien.

    OpenAIRE

    TAALBI, Amina

    2016-01-01

    Notre travail s’est basé principalement sur une étude de la variabilité chimique et l’intérêt économique des huiles essentielles de deux menthes sauvages de l’ouest algérien: Mentha pulegium et Mentha rotundifolia. Ces deux menthes, largement répandue en Algérie, de la famille des Lamiaceae sont connus dans le monde pour leurs propriétés thérapeutiques (antiseptique, antinévralgique, analgésique…) et l’intérêt économique de leurs huiles essentielles....

  2. Évaluation comparée de deux dispositifs scolaires destinés à des élèves ayant des troubles d’apprentissage

    OpenAIRE

    Tremblay, Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Cet article traite de la comparaison de l’efficacité de deux dispositifs scolaires (inclusion et enseignement spécialisé) destinés à des élèves ayant des difficultés ou des troubles d’apprentissage. Douze classes inclusives (groupe expérimental) et treize classes d’enseignement spécialisé (groupe contrôle) ont participé à la recherche. Les résultats montrent que les deux dispositifs se distinguent peu en ce qui concerne leur population et les ressources qui leur sont attribuées. Toutefois des...

  3. Quantum aspects of cavity optomechanics with atomic ensembles and ensemble arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamper-Kurn, Dan

    2012-06-01

    While the motion of a many-atom ensemble of atoms interacting strongly with a single mode of an optical resonator can be devilishly complicated, under favorable conditions, the cavity can be made to interact with and to sense just one, or just a few, normal modes of the gaseous system. This leads to an atoms-based realization of cavity optomechanics, directly analogous to experiments in which one seeks to observe the motion of suspended mirrors, cantilevers, and membranes at the quantum limits of precision. I will discuss our progress toward demonstrating and understanding the distinctively quantum mechanical aspects of both the ``opto'' and ``mechanical'' portions of cavity optomechanical systems. Specifically, I will report on the observation of the ponderomotive squeezing of light by a mechanical oscillator, and of strong motional sideband asymmetry that demonstrates the quantization of collective atomic motion and quantifies the energy flux into the mechanical system due to quantum measurement backaction. I will conclude by describing our approach to realizing strong cavity coupling to a multi-mode mechanical system, specifically to an array of distinguishable mechanical oscillators. [4pt] The work reported in this talk was performed in collaboration with members of my research group, including Thierry Botter, Nathaniel Brahms, Daniel Brooks, Thomas Purdy and Sydney Schreppler, and was supported by the AFOSR and NSF.

  4. Anoplastie périnéale simple pour le traitement des malformations anorectales basses chez l'adulte, à propos de deux cas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echchaoui, Abdelmoughit; Benyachou, Malika; Hafidi, Jawad; Fathi, Nahed; Mohammadine, Elhamid; ELmazouz, Samir; Gharib, Nour-eddine; Abbassi, Abdellah

    2014-01-01

    Les malformations anorectales chez l'adulte sont des anomalies congénitales rares du tube digestif qui prédominent chez le sexe féminin. Notre étude porte sur deux observations de malformation anorectale basses vues et traitées au stade adulte par les 2 équipes (plasticiens et viscéralistes) à l'Hôpital Avicenne à Rabat. Il s'agit d'un homme de 24 ans avec une dyschésie anale l'autre cas est une femme de 18 ans avec une malformation anovulvaire Les caractéristiques cliniques combinées avec les imageries radiologiques (lavement baryté, et la manométrie anorectale) ont confirmé qu'il s'agit d'une malfomation anorectale basse. Les deux cas sont corrigés par une reconstruction sphinctérienne, réimplantation anale avec anoplastie périnéale. Les suites opératoires étaient simples, pas de souffrance cutanée ou nécrose, avec changement de pansement gras chaque jour. Le résultat fonctionnel (la continence) était favorable pour les 2 patients. La présentation des MAR à l’âge adulte est rare, d’étiologie mal connu, elles apparaissent selon le mode sporadique. Les caractéristiques cliniques, couplées à l'imagerie (lavement baryté, IRM pelvienne), l'endoscopie et la manométrie anorectale, permettent de confirmer le diagnostic et classer ces anomalies en 3 types: basses, intermédiaires, et hautes. Les formes basses sont traités d'emblée par une réimplantation anale et anoplastie périnéale simple tels nos deux cas, elles peuvent être traités dans certains cas par un abaissement anorectale associé à une plastie V-Y permettant ainsi un emplacement anatomique correct de l'anus; alors que les formes hautes ou intermédiaires relèvent d'une chirurgie complexe avec souvent une dérivation digestive transitoire. Contrairement aux autres formes, Les formes basses ont un pronostic fonctionnel favorable. PMID:25667689

  5. Enriching the Ensemble Experience for Students with Visual Impairments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siligo, Wayne Roy

    2005-01-01

    This article will give music educators some practical tools and information for helping students with visual impairments enjoy the ensemble experience. The author has used these tools as music director at the California School for the Blind (CSB) and as a musician who is visually impaired. All observations and techniques mentioned here come out of…

  6. Scale-free brain ensemble modulated by phase synchronization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dan WU; Chao-yi LI; Jie LIU; Jing LU; De-zhong YAO

    2014-01-01

    To listen to brain activity as a piece of music, we proposed the scale-free brainwave music (SFBM) technology, which could translate the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) into music notes according to the power law of both EEG and music. In the current study, this methodology was further extended to a musical ensemble of two channels. First, EEG data from two selected channels are translated into musical instrument digital interface (MIDI) sequences, where the EEG parameters modulate the pitch, duration, and volume of each musical note. The phase synchronization index of the two channels is computed by a Hilbert transform. Then the two MIDI sequences are integrated into a chorus according to the phase synchronization index. The EEG with a high synchronization index is represented by more consonant musical intervals, while the low index is expressed by inconsonant musical intervals. The brain ensemble derived from real EEG segments illustrates differences in harmony and pitch distribution during the eyes-closed and eyes-open states. Furthermore, the scale-free phenomena exist in the brainwave ensemble. Therefore, the scale-free brain ensemble modulated by phase synchronization is a new attempt to express the EEG through an auditory and musical way, and it can be used for EEG monitoring and bio-feedback.

  7. Ligand and ensemble effects in adsorption on alloy surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Ping; Nørskov, Jens Kehlet

    2001-01-01

    Density functional theory is used to study the adsorption of carbon monoxide, oxygen and nitrogen on various Au/Pd(111) bimetallic alloy surfaces. By varying the Au content in the surface we are able to make a clear separation into geometrical (or ensemble) effects and electronic (or ligand...

  8. Ensemble Learning of Tissue Components for Prostate Histopathology Image Grading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dheeb Albashish

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble learning is an effective machine learning approach to improve the prediction performance by fusing several single classifier models. In computer-aided diagnosis system (CAD, machine learning has become one of the dominant solutions for tissue images diagnosis and grading. One problem in a single classifier model for multi-components of the tissue images combination to construct dense feature vectors is the overfitting. In this paper, an ensemble learning for multi-component tissue images classification approach is proposed. The prostate cancer Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E histopathology images from HUKM were used to test the proposed ensemble approach for diagnosing and Gleason grading. The experiments results of several prostate classification tasks, namely, benign vs. Grade 3, benign vs.Grade4, and Grade 3vs.Grade 4 show that the proposed ensemble significantly outperforms the previous typical CAD and the naïve approach that combines the texture features of all tissue component directly in dense feature vectors for a classifier.

  9. Ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasting: Evolution, Estimate Validation and Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    background-error covariance ( bP̂ ) from Equation (12)(c) must be estimated diagnostically from the ensemble of background states using Equation (12)(a...Although the beta- fit does not always provide a quality fit to the ˆTp data, it was sufficient for the pedagogical purpose here. For this forecast

  10. Tweet-based Target Market Classification Using Ensemble Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Adi Khairul Anshary

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Target market classification is aimed at focusing marketing activities on the right targets. Classification of target markets can be done through data mining and by utilizing data from social media, e.g. Twitter. The end result of data mining are learning models that can classify new data. Ensemble methods can improve the accuracy of the models and therefore provide better results. In this study, classification of target markets was conducted on a dataset of 3000 tweets in order to extract features. Classification models were constructed to manipulate the training data using two ensemble methods (bagging and boosting. To investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble methods, this study used the CART (classification and regression tree algorithm for comparison. Three categories of consumer goods (computers, mobile phones and cameras and three categories of sentiments (positive, negative and neutral were classified towards three target-market categories. Machine learning was performed using Weka 3.6.9. The results of the test data showed that the bagging method improved the accuracy of CART with 1.9% (to 85.20%. On the other hand, for sentiment classification, the ensemble methods were not successful in increasing the accuracy of CART. The results of this study may be taken into consideration by companies who approach their customers through social media, especially Twitter.

  11. Conceptualizing Conceptual Teaching: Practical Strategies for Large Instrumental Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Leonard

    2016-01-01

    Half a century ago, calls had already been made for instrumental ensemble directors to move beyond performance to include the teaching of musical concepts in the rehearsal hall. Relatively recent research, however, suggests that conceptual teaching remains relatively infrequent during rehearsals. Given the importance of teaching for long-term…

  12. Space weather forecasting with a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Butala, M.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.

    2016-07-01

    The goal of the Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) program is to improve space weather specification and forecasting with ensemble modeling. Space weather can have detrimental effects on a variety of civilian and military systems and operations, and many of the applications pertain to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Space weather can affect over-the-horizon radars, HF communications, surveying and navigation systems, surveillance, spacecraft charging, power grids, pipelines, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA's) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). Because of its importance, numerous space weather forecasting approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Clearly, if there are sufficient data, the data assimilation modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable, but different data assimilation models can produce different results. Therefore, like the meteorology community, we created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE) system that is based on different data assimilation models. The MEPS ensemble is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and middle to low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. Hence, multiple data assimilation models can be used to describe each region. A selected storm event that was reconstructed with four different data assimilation models covering the middle and low latitude ionosphere is presented and discussed. In addition, the effect of different data types on the reconstructions is shown.

  13. Local ensemble assimilation scheme with global constraints and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, Alexander; Yan, Yajing; Alvera-Azcárate, Aida; Beckers, Jean-Marie

    2016-12-01

    Ensemble assimilation schemes applied in their original, global formulation respect linear conservation properties if the ensemble perturbations are set up accordingly. For realistic ocean systems, only a relatively small number of ensemble members can be calculated. A localization of the ensemble increment is therefore necessary to filter out spurious long-range correlations. The conservation of the global properties will be lost if the assimilation is performed locally, since the conservation requires a coupling between all model grid points which is removed by the localization. The distribution of ocean observations is often highly inhomogeneous. Systematic errors of the observed parts of the ocean state can lead to spurious adjustment of the non-observed parts via data assimilation and thus to a spurious increase or decrease in long-term simulations of global properties which should be conserved. In this paper, we propose a local assimilation scheme (with different variants and assumptions) which can satisfy global conservation properties. The proposed scheme can also be used for non-local observation operators. Different variants of the proposed scheme are tested in an idealized model and compared to the traditional covariance localization with an ad-hoc step enforcing conservation. It is shown that the inclusion of the conservation property reduces the total RMS error and that the presented stochastic and deterministic schemes avoiding error space rotation provide better results than the traditional covariance localization.

  14. The Wilson loop in the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Gurau, Razvan

    2016-01-01

    Using the supersymmetric formalism we compute exactly at finite $N$ the expectation of the Wilson loop in the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble and derive an exact formula for the spectral density at finite $N$. We obtain the same result by a second method relying on enumerative combinatorics and show that it leads to a novel proof of the Harer-Zagier series formula.

  15. Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.

  16. A benchmark for reaction coordinates in the transition path ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjin; Ma, Ao

    2016-04-01

    The molecular mechanism of a reaction is embedded in its transition path ensemble, the complete collection of reactive trajectories. Utilizing the information in the transition path ensemble alone, we developed a novel metric, which we termed the emergent potential energy, for distinguishing reaction coordinates from the bath modes. The emergent potential energy can be understood as the average energy cost for making a displacement of a coordinate in the transition path ensemble. Where displacing a bath mode invokes essentially no cost, it costs significantly to move the reaction coordinate. Based on some general assumptions of the behaviors of reaction and bath coordinates in the transition path ensemble, we proved theoretically with statistical mechanics that the emergent potential energy could serve as a benchmark of reaction coordinates and demonstrated its effectiveness by applying it to a prototypical system of biomolecular dynamics. Using the emergent potential energy as guidance, we developed a committor-free and intuition-independent method for identifying reaction coordinates in complex systems. We expect this method to be applicable to a wide range of reaction processes in complex biomolecular systems.

  17. Characterizing RNA ensembles from NMR data with kinematic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonseca, Rasmus; Pachov, Dimitar V.; Bernauer, Julie;

    2014-01-01

    the conformational landscapes of 3D RNA encoded by NMR proton chemical shifts. KGSrna resolves motionally averaged NMR data into structural contributions; when coupled with residual dipolar coupling data, a KGSrna ensemble revealed a previously uncharacterized transient excited state of the HIV-1 trans...

  18. Nonlinear reaction coordinate analysis in the reweighted path ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lechner, W.; Rogal, J.; Juraszek, J.; Ensing, B.; Bolhuis, P.G.

    2010-01-01

    We present a flexible nonlinear reaction coordinate analysis method for the transition path ensemble based on the likelihood maximization approach developed by Peters and Trout [J. Chem. Phys. 125, 054108 (2006)] . By parametrizing the reaction coordinate by a string of images in a collective variab

  19. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2016-08-01

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  20. Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Thiboult

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Seeking for more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the Ensemble Kalman Filter, multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims at untangling the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stage in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tool used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial condition uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improve the general forecasting performance and prevents from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the Ensemble Kalman Filter tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.

  1. Aharonov-Casher effect in quantum ring ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joibari, F.K.; Blanter, Y.M.; Bauer, G.E.W.

    2013-01-01

    We study the transport of electrons through a single-mode quantum ring with electric-field induced Rashba spin-orbit interaction that is subject to an in-plane magnetic field and weakly coupled to electron reservoirs. Modeling a ring array by ensemble averaging over a Gaussian distribution of energy

  2. Malignancy and Abnormality Detection of Mammograms using Classifier Ensembling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawazish Naveed

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The breast cancer detection and diagnosis is a critical and complex procedure that demands high degree of accuracy. In computer aided diagnostic systems, the breast cancer detection is a two stage procedure. First, to classify the malignant and benign mammograms, while in second stage, the type of abnormality is detected. In this paper, we have developed a novel architecture to enhance the classification of malignant and benign mammograms using multi-classification of malignant mammograms into six abnormality classes. DWT (Discrete Wavelet Transformation features are extracted from preprocessed images and passed through different classifiers. To improve accuracy, results generated by various classifiers are ensembled. The genetic algorithm is used to find optimal weights rather than assigning weights to the results of classifiers on the basis of heuristics. The mammograms declared as malignant by ensemble classifiers are divided into six classes. The ensemble classifiers are further used for multiclassification using one-against-all technique for classification. The output of all ensemble classifiers is combined by product, median and mean rule. It has been observed that the accuracy of classification of abnormalities is more than 97% in case of mean rule. The Mammographic Image Analysis Society dataset is used for experimentation.

  3. Wave Extremes in the North East Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind; 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00738.1

    2013-01-01

    A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The a...

  4. Power to Detect Intervention Effects on Ensembles of Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Tracy M.; Junker, Brian W.

    2016-01-01

    The hierarchical network model (HNM) is a framework introduced by Sweet, Thomas, and Junker for modeling interventions and other covariate effects on ensembles of social networks, such as what would be found in randomized controlled trials in education research. In this article, we develop calculations for the power to detect an intervention…

  5. Diagnosing Coronary Heart Disease using Ensemble Machine Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen H. Miao

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Globally, heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women. One in every four people is afflicted with and dies of heart disease. Early and accurate diagnoses of heart disease thus are crucial in improving the chances of long-term survival for patients and saving millions of lives. In this research, an advanced ensemble machine learning technology, utilizing an adaptive Boosting algorithm, is developed for accurate coronary heart disease diagnosis and outcome predictions. The developed ensemble learning classification and prediction models were applied to 4 different data sets for coronary heart disease diagnosis, including patients diagnosed with heart disease from Cleveland Clinic Foundation (CCF, Hungarian Institute of Cardiology (HIC, Long Beach Medical Center (LBMC, and Switzerland University Hospital (SUH. The testing results showed that the developed ensemble learning classification and prediction models achieved model accuracies of 80.14% for CCF, 89.12% for HIC, 77.78% for LBMC, and 96.72% for SUH, exceeding the accuracies of previously published research. Therefore, coronary heart disease diagnoses derived from the developed ensemble learning classification and prediction models are reliable and clinically useful, and can aid patients globally, especially those from developing countries and areas where there are few heart disease diagnostic specialists.

  6. Korean Percussion Ensemble ("Samulnori") in the General Music Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sangmi; Yoo, Hyesoo

    2016-01-01

    This article introduces "samulnori" (Korean percussion ensemble), its cultural background, and instructional methods as parts of a classroom approach to teaching upper-level general music. We introduce five of eight sections from "youngnam nong-ak" (a style of samulnori) as a repertoire for teaching Korean percussion music to…

  7. The egg model - A geological ensemble for reservoir simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, J.D.; Fonseca, R.M.; Kahrobaei, S.; Siraj, M.M.; Van Essen, G.M.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    The ‘Egg Model’ is a synthetic reservoir model consisting of an ensemble of 101 relatively small three-dimensional realizations of a channelized oil reservoir produced under water flooding conditions with eight water injectors and four oil producers. It has been used in numerous publications to demo

  8. Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crooks, Gavin; Sivak, David

    2011-06-03

    Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Renyi divergence.

  9. Stokes identification in an atomic ensemble using a filtering system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luo Xiao-Ming; Ning Bo; Chen Li-Qing; Zhou Yue; Zhong Zhi-Ping; Jiang Shuo

    2009-01-01

    Polarization filtering and atomic cell filtering are applied in the identification of Stokes signals in an atomic ensemble, and reduce the noise to a level of 10~(-5) and 10~(-4) respectively. Good Stokes signals are then obtained. In this article the two filtering systems and the final Stokes output are presented, and the optimization of the polarization filtering system is highlighted.

  10. Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Rizk

    Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

  11. Performance and Applications of an Ensemble of Atomic Fountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    clock based time scale,” Metrologia 49, pp. 180-188 (2012). [2] T. Parker, S. Jefferts, T. Heavner, and E. Donley, “Operation of the NIST-F1 caesium...fountain primary standard with a maser ensemble, including the impact of frequency transfer noise,” Metrologia 42, pp. 423-430 (2005). [3] J. Guéna, et

  12. ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Galmarini, S.; Bianconi, R.; French, S. (eds.)

    2003-11-01

    ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparate national forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidental atmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making 'ENSEMBLE' procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecasts from meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly into operational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development. (au)

  13. Generation of Exotic Quantum States of a Cold Atomic Ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Stefan Lund

    Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... — a nanofiber based light-atom interface. Using a dual-frequency probing method we measure and prepare an ensemble with a sub-Poissonian atom number distribution. This is a first step towards the implementation of more exotic quantum states.......Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... can be created and characterized. First we consider a spin-squeezed state. This state is generated by performing quantum non-demolition measurements of the atomic population difference. We show a spectroscopically relevant noise reduction of -1.7dB, the ensemble is in a many-body entangled state...

  14. Ensemble: an Architecture for Mission-Operations Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Powell, Mark; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, IHsiang; McCurdy, Michael; Vera, Alonso

    2008-01-01

    Ensemble is the name of an open architecture for, and a methodology for the development of, spacecraft mission operations software. Ensemble is also potentially applicable to the development of non-spacecraft mission-operations- type software. Ensemble capitalizes on the strengths of the open-source Eclipse software and its architecture to address several issues that have arisen repeatedly in the development of mission-operations software: Heretofore, mission-operations application programs have been developed in disparate programming environments and integrated during the final stages of development of missions. The programs have been poorly integrated, and it has been costly to develop, test, and deploy them. Users of each program have been forced to interact with several different graphical user interfaces (GUIs). Also, the strategy typically used in integrating the programs has yielded serial chains of operational software tools of such a nature that during use of a given tool, it has not been possible to gain access to the capabilities afforded by other tools. In contrast, the Ensemble approach offers a low-risk path towards tighter integration of mission-operations software tools.

  15. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

    2016-10-01

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  16. Matrix models for β-ensembles from Nekrasov partition functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sułkowski, P.

    2010-01-01

    We relate Nekrasov partition functions, with arbitrary values of ∊ 1, ∊ 2 parameters, to matrix models for β-ensembles. We find matrix models encoding the instanton part of Nekrasov partition functions, whose measure, to the leading order in ∊ 2 expansion, is given by the Vandermonde determinant to

  17. Entropy Maximization in the Force Network Ensemble for Granular Solids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tighe, B.P.; Van Eerd, A.R.T.; Vlugt, T.J.H.

    2008-01-01

    A long-standing issue in the area of granular media is the tail of the force distribution, in particular, whether this is exponential, Gaussian, or even some other form. Here we resolve the issue for the case of the force network ensemble in two dimensions. We demonstrate that conservation of the to

  18. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-08-20

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  19. Equivalence of dynamical ensembles and Navier-Stokes equations

    CERN Document Server

    Gallavotti, G

    1996-01-01

    A reversible version of the Navier Stokes equation is studied. A conjecture emerges stating the equivalence between the reversible equation and the usual Navier Stokes equation. The latter appears as a statement of ensembles equivalence in the limit of infinite Reynolds number, which plays the role of the thermodynamic limit.

  20. Ensemble nonequivalence in random graphs with modular structure

    CERN Document Server

    Garlaschelli, Diego; Roccaverde, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Breaking of equivalence between the microcanonical ensemble and the canonical ensemble, describing a large system subject to hard and soft constraints, respectively, was recently shown to occur in large random graphs. Hard constraints must be met by every graph, soft constraints must be met only on average, subject to maximal entropy. In Squartini et al. (2015) it was shown that ensembles of random graphs are non-equivalent when the degrees of the nodes are constrained, in the sense of a non-zero limiting specific relative entropy as the number of nodes diverges. In that paper, the nodes were placed either on a single layer (uni-partite graphs) or on two layers (bi-partite graphs). In the present paper we consider an arbitrary number of intra-connected and inter-connected layers, thus allowing for modular graphs with a multi-partite, multiplex, block-model or community structure. We give a full classification of ensemble equivalence, proving that breakdown occurs if and only if the number of local constraints...

  1. Building Orff Ensemble Skills with Mentally Handicapped Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dervan, Nancy

    1982-01-01

    Discusses how Orff-Schulwerk methods are used to teach music ensemble skills to mentally retarded adolescents. The author describes how the analysis of basic musical tasks reveals the essential subskills of motor coordination, timing, and attentiveness necessary to music-making. Specific teaching methods for skill development and Orff…

  2. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

  3. Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG ZhiNa; MU Mu; WANG DongHai

    2009-01-01

    Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from 12 to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm .and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.

  4. Non-Boltzmann Ensembles and Monte Carlo Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, K. P. N.

    2016-10-01

    Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble and for calculating macroscopic properties of a closed system at desired temperatures. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, is made by averaging over a large number microstates generated by Boltzmann Monte Carlo methods. This is possible because we can assign a numerical value for energy to each microstate. However, a thermal property like entropy, is not easily accessible to these methods. The reason is simple. We can not assign a numerical value for entropy, to a microstate. Entropy is not a property associated with any single microstate. It is a collective property of all the microstates. Toward calculating entropy and other thermal properties, a non-Boltzmann Monte Carlo technique called Umbrella sampling was proposed some forty years ago. Umbrella sampling has since undergone several metamorphoses and we have now, multi-canonical Monte Carlo, entropic sampling, flat histogram methods, Wang-Landau algorithm etc. This class of methods generates non-Boltzmann ensembles which are un-physical. However, physical quantities can be calculated as follows. First un-weight a microstates of the entropic ensemble; then re-weight it to the desired physical ensemble. Carry out weighted average over the entropic ensemble to estimate physical quantities. In this talk I shall tell you of the most recent non- Boltzmann Monte Carlo method and show how to calculate free energy for a few systems. We first consider estimation of free energy as a function of energy at different temperatures to characterize phase transition in an hairpin DNA in the presence of an unzipping force. Next we consider free energy as a function of order parameter and to this end we estimate density of states g(E, M), as a function of both energy E, and order parameter M. This is carried out in two stages. We estimate g(E) in the first stage. Employing g

  5. A sub-ensemble theory of ideal quantum measurement processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Balian, Roger; Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M.

    2017-01-01

    In order to elucidate the properties currently attributed to ideal measurements, one must explain how the concept of an individual event with a well-defined outcome may emerge from quantum theory which deals with statistical ensembles, and how different runs issued from the same initial state may end up with different final states. This so-called "measurement problem" is tackled with two guidelines. On the one hand, the dynamics of the macroscopic apparatus A coupled to the tested system S is described mathematically within a standard quantum formalism, where " q-probabilities" remain devoid of interpretation. On the other hand, interpretative principles, aimed to be minimal, are introduced to account for the expected features of ideal measurements. Most of the five principles stated here, which relate the quantum formalism to physical reality, are straightforward and refer to macroscopic variables. The process can be identified with a relaxation of S + A to thermodynamic equilibrium, not only for a large ensemble E of runs but even for its sub-ensembles. The different mechanisms of quantum statistical dynamics that ensure these types of relaxation are exhibited, and the required properties of the Hamiltonian of S + A are indicated. The additional theoretical information provided by the study of sub-ensembles remove Schrödinger's quantum ambiguity of the final density operator for E which hinders its direct interpretation, and bring out a commutative behaviour of the pointer observable at the final time. The latter property supports the introduction of a last interpretative principle, needed to switch from the statistical ensembles and sub-ensembles described by quantum theory to individual experimental events. It amounts to identify some formal " q-probabilities" with ordinary frequencies, but only those which refer to the final indications of the pointer. The desired properties of ideal measurements, in particular the uniqueness of the result for each individual

  6. Quantum repeater with Rydberg-blocked atomic ensembles in fiber-coupled cavities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brion, Etienne; Carlier, F.; Akulin, M.;

    2012-01-01

    We propose and analyze a quantum repeater architecture in which Rydberg-blocked atomic ensembles inside optical cavities are linked by optical fibers. Entanglement generation, swapping, and purification are achieved through collective laser manipulations of the ensembles and photon transmission...

  7. Using Ensemble Streamflows for Power Marketing at Bonneville Power Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, S. B.; Koski, P.

    2014-12-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is a federal non-profit agency within the Pacific Northwest responsible for marketing the power generated from 31 federal hydro projects throughout the Columbia River Basin. The basin encompasses parts of five states and portions of British Columbia, Canada. BPA works with provincial entities, federal and state agencies, and tribal members to manage the water resources for a variety of purposes including flood risk management, power generation, fisheries, irrigation, recreation, and navigation. This basin is subject to significant hydrologic variability in terms of seasonal volume and runoff shape from year to year which presents new water management challenges each year. The power generation planning group at BPA includes a team of meteorologists and hydrologists responsible for preparing both short-term (up to three weeks) and mid-term (up to 18 months) weather and streamflow forecasts including ensemble streamflow data. Analysts within the mid-term planning group are responsible for running several different hydrologic models used for planning studies. These models rely on these streamflow ensembles as a primary input. The planning studies are run bi-weekly to help determine the amount of energy available, or energy inventory, for forward marketing (selling or purchasing energy up to a year in advance). These studies are run with the objective of meeting the numerous multi-purpose objectives of the basin under the various streamflow conditions within the ensemble set. In addition to ensemble streamflows, an ensemble of seasonal volume forecasts is also provided for the various water conditions in order to set numerous constraints on the system. After meeting all the various requirements of the system, a probabilistic energy inventory is calculated and used for marketing purposes.

  8. Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

    2016-04-01

    Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

  9. Ensemble models of neutrophil trafficking in severe sepsis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Ok Song

    Full Text Available A hallmark of severe sepsis is systemic inflammation which activates leukocytes and can result in their misdirection. This leads to both impaired migration to the locus of infection and increased infiltration into healthy tissues. In order to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved, we developed a coarse-grained phenomenological model of the acute inflammatory response in CLP (cecal ligation and puncture-induced sepsis in rats. This model incorporates distinct neutrophil kinetic responses to the inflammatory stimulus and the dynamic interactions between components of a compartmentalized inflammatory response. Ensembles of model parameter sets consistent with experimental observations were statistically generated using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Prediction uncertainty in the model states was quantified over the resulting ensemble parameter sets. Forward simulation of the parameter ensembles successfully captured experimental features and predicted that systemically activated circulating neutrophils display impaired migration to the tissue and neutrophil sequestration in the lung, consequently contributing to tissue damage and mortality. Principal component and multiple regression analyses of the parameter ensembles estimated from survivor and non-survivor cohorts provide insight into pathologic mechanisms dictating outcome in sepsis. Furthermore, the model was extended to incorporate hypothetical mechanisms by which immune modulation using extracorporeal blood purification results in improved outcome in septic rats. Simulations identified a sub-population (about 18% of the treated population that benefited from blood purification. Survivors displayed enhanced neutrophil migration to tissue and reduced sequestration of lung neutrophils, contributing to improved outcome. The model ensemble presented herein provides a platform for generating and testing hypotheses in silico, as well as motivating further experimental

  10. Apprentissage scolaire et vie quotidienne : l’exemple de deux écoles-familles agricoles au Brésil

    OpenAIRE

    Galvão, Izabel

    2011-01-01

    L’article se réfère à une recherche menée auprès de deux « écoles-familles agricoles » dans le Nord du Brésil, dont l’implantation s’appuie sur l’action collective des parents et des habitants des localités rurales concernées. À partir de la description des pratiques éducatives structurées autour du principe d’alternance, l’auteur s’interroge sur la possibilité de formes éducatives qui, tout en affirmant leur appartenance au monde scolaire, prennent en compte l’apprentissage informel dans des...

  11. La forme pseudo tumorale de la tuberculose primitive du nasopharynx: à propos de deux nouvelles observations et revue de la littérature

    OpenAIRE

    Touati, Mohammed; Aljalil, Abdelfettah; Chihani, Mehdi; Bouchentouf, Rachid; Bouaity, Brahim; Ammar, Haddou

    2013-01-01

    La tuberculose primitive du nasopharynx est rare, nous présentons deux observations révélées par un aspect pseudo tumoral et à travers lesquelles nous soulevons le problème de diagnostic différentiel avec les lésions malignes du nasopharynx. La première observation concerne un jeune patient de 22 ans hospitalisé pour obstruction nasale bilatérale évoluant dans un contexte d'apyrexie et de conservation de l’état général. La nasofibrosopie et le scanner ont monté un processus tumoral évoquant u...

  12. Parametres genetiques des caracteres de la portee et du poids de la mere dans le croisement de deux souches de lapin selectionnees

    OpenAIRE

    Brun, Jean- Michel; ROUVIER, R.

    1988-01-01

    Deux souches de lapins (INRA 1066 et 1077), originaires respectivement des races Californienne (CA) et Néo-Zélandaise Blanche (NZ) et sélectionnées sur la prolificité depuis quatre générations, sont étudiées en race pure, en croisements simples et à double étage. La taille de la portée à la naissance et au sevrage, le poids total de la portée au sevrage, le poids moyen du lapereau sevré ainsi que le poids des femelles sont analysés en termes d’effets génétiques additifs et d’hétérosis. D...

  13. Une analyse comparée de la médiatisation de deux sociologues de la délinquance juvénile

    OpenAIRE

    Sedel, Julie

    2012-01-01

    En France, à la fin des années 90, plusieurs « experts » ont monopolisé le débat public sur la petite délinquance en se positionnant comme les interlocuteurs légitimes des hommes politiques et des journalistes. À travers la façon dont deux sociologues de la délinquance représentant des positions antagonistes – Sébastian Roché et Laurent Mucchielli – sont intervenus dans les médias, durant cette période, cet article se propose d’analyser la façon dont la sociologie contribue à formuler les pro...

  14. Catharine Macaulay et Mary Wollstonecraft. Deux femmes dans le débat sur la Révolution française en Angleterre

    OpenAIRE

    Bernez, Marie-Odile

    2009-01-01

    En Angleterre, deux femmes se sont engagées très tôt dans le débat sur la Révolution française suscité par la parution des Réflexions sur la Révolution de France d’Edmund Burke. De tendance radicale et attachées au primat de la raison, Catharine Macaulay et Mary Wollstonecraft attaquèrent l’argumentation de Burke et défendirent les progrès que représentait la Révolution. La contribution de Mary Wollstonecraft, qui vécut d’ailleurs en France de 1792 à 1795, est particulièrement remarquable en ...

  15. Les Deux Méthodes. Conférence par Jean Jaurès et Jules Guesde à l’Hippodrome Lillois

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Transcription à partir de l’édition : Les Deux Méthodes. Conférence par Jean Jaurès et Jules Guesde à l’Hippodrome Lillois, Lille, Imprimerie Ouvrière P. Lagrange, 1900 (sur Gallica, reproduction de l’exemplaire coté Lb57 12889). Les numéros de pages de l’édition transcrite sont renseignés entre crochets au fil du texte ; c’est à cette pagination que se réfèrent les renvois effectués dans l’analyse du document. Nous avons remplacé « Fourrier » par « Fourier » et « Carrette » par « Carette » ;...

  16. Vivre à domicile, deux ans après un AVC : Etude auprès des patients et des aidants du Luxembourg.

    OpenAIRE

    Baumann, Michèle

    2012-01-01

    Au Luxembourg, une recherche pluridisciplinaire a été réalisée auprès de 797 personnes victimes d’un accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC). Une enquête nationale a été menée comportant un volet épidémiologique effectué par le CRP-Santé, qui a rassemblé des données médico-administratives et des données cliniques issues des dossiers d’hospitalisation, et un volet de sociologie médicale par l’Université qui a interrogé 94 patients vivant au domicile, deux après la survenue de l’AVC, et leurs 62 aid...

  17. Bertrand Badie, Les deux Etats. Pouvoirs et société en Occident et en terre d'Islam, Paris, Fayard, 1986, 334 p.

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    L'excellent ouvrage de B. Badie se veut une réflexion théorique. Partant de l'hypothèse qu'il n'y a pas de sociologie universelle appliquable uniformément à toutes les cultures, l'auteur s'engage d'abord dans une réflexion sociologique sur les origines culturelles de la modernité occidentale en comparaison avec le monde musulman. Mais au delà d'un simple regard porté sur les “ contrastes de deux dynamiques culturelles ”, il propose un système d'explication différencié et suffisamment s...

  18. La forme pseudo tumorale de la tuberculose primitive du nasopharynx: à propos de deux nouvelles observations et revue de la littérature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touati, Mohammed; Aljalil, Abdelfettah; Chihani, Mehdi; Bouchentouf, Rachid; Bouaity, Brahim; Ammar, Haddou

    2013-01-01

    La tuberculose primitive du nasopharynx est rare, nous présentons deux observations révélées par un aspect pseudo tumoral et à travers lesquelles nous soulevons le problème de diagnostic différentiel avec les lésions malignes du nasopharynx. La première observation concerne un jeune patient de 22 ans hospitalisé pour obstruction nasale bilatérale évoluant dans un contexte d'apyrexie et de conservation de l’état général. La nasofibrosopie et le scanner ont monté un processus tumoral évoquant une hypertrophie des végétations adénoïdes. Le deuxième cas est celui d'un homme de 45 ans tabagique chronique qui a présenté une adénopathie latérocervicale droite, une obstruction nasale et une otite séromuqueuse homolatérale. La nasophibroscopie et le scanner on montré un bourgeon tumoral postéro latéral droit du nasopharynx évoquant un carcinome nasopharyngé. Les biopsies du nasopharynx et les études histologiques, chez les deux patients, ont confirmé le diagnostic de tuberculose. La recherche d'autres localisations était négative. Le pronostic était favorable après 6 mois de traitement antibacillaire. La tuberculose primitive du cavum est rare, elle revêt le plus souvent des formes pseudotumorales et pose des problèmes de diagnostic différentiel avec les tumeurs nasopharyngées, son pronostic sous traitement antibacillaire est. PMID:23565310

  19. Violences coloniales et écriture de la transgression chez deux auteures ultra-marines : Déwé Görödé et Chantal Spitz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Ogès

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Cet article instruit un parallèle entre deux auteures du Pacifique : Déwé Görödé et Chantal Spitz, l'une kanak, l'autre polynésienne. Il montre comment ces deux femmes expriment leurs souffrances, dans une position anti-coloniale. Ceci se traduit dans l'écriture, où le refus des normes et des formes liées à la culture française est omniprésent : transgressions des genres, déconstruction des codes grammaticaux, recours à des formes linguistiques jugées « familières » ou « populaires », expression de la révolte et de la violence.... Elles assument cette nouvelle parole, et ce nouveau style d'écriture, qui est le leur, accédant ainsi à une liberté nouvelle. Colonial violences and subversive writing in Déwé Görödé and Chantal Spitz books. Abstract: Déwé Görödé and Chantal Spitz are two postcolonial writers from the Pacific, the first one is Kanak and the second one is Polynesian. These two women free and rebellious don't respect the norms in their books : they want to show the violence of the colonialism in their countries. Their style is dashing and broken : these writers don't respect the grammatical norms, as they put it, and the art of writing reflects their free state of mind. This singular writing is the affirmation of their freedom.

  20. Comparaison des performances de deux souches de truite commune (Salmo trutta L. (domestique et hybride sauvage x domestique introduites au stade alevin dans un ruisseau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NIHOUARN A.

    1990-10-01

    Full Text Available La production d'un hybride mâle sauvage x femelle domestique, chez la truite commune (Salmo trutta a parfois été proposée pour le repeuplement (CUINAT, 1971. Nos précédents travaux (MAISSE et al., 1983 ont montré que ces sujets sont plus difficiles à élever que ceux dont les deux parents sont domestiques. La présente étude a porté sur la comparaison des performances des hybrides et des domestiques déversés simultanément dans un ruisseau où la reproduction de la truite est compromise par le colmatage du fond. Les déversements ont été effectués sur la totalité du ruisseau, en mai, deux années de suite. Des inventaires ont été réalisés sur des secteurs représentatifs en mai, avant les déversements, et en octobre. Les résultats ont montré que les taux d'implantation, tant en 0+ qu'en 1+, ne différaient pas suivant l'origine des poissons. De plus, sur chacun des secteurs inventoriés, les individus d'origine domestique ont gardé l'avantage de taille qu'ils avaient au moment du déversement. L'intérêt d'un tel croisement est discuté en fonction des diverses stratégies de repeuplement à mettre en œuvre.

  1. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  2. Reconstruction of the coupling architecture in an ensemble of coupled time-delay systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sysoev, I. V.; Ponomarenko, V. I.; Prokhorov, M. D.

    2012-08-01

    A method for reconstructing the coupling architecture and values in an ensemble of time-delay interacting systems with an arbitrary number of couplings between ensemble elements is proposed. This method is based on reconstruction of the model equations of ensemble elements and diagnostics of the coupling significance by successive trial exclusion or adding coupling coefficients to the model.

  3. Deux restaurants à New York: l'un franco-maghrébin, l'autre africain. Two restaurants in New York : one is Franco-Maghrebian, the other is African -Recent creations of "well-tempered" exoticisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Pierre Hassoun

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available L’article repose sur une enquête ethnographique conduite en 2008-2009 à Manhattan auprès de huit entrepreneurs devenus Chef et/ou managers de restaurant après avoir immigré à New York. Aucun d’entre eux n’a été formé dans une institution culinaire et tous proposent des cuisines de régions du monde (Afrique, Afrique du Nord encore absentes, ou peu présentes à New York. A partir de deux études de cas plus détaillées, l’auteur s’interroge sur les stratégies marchandes autour de cette altérité et les limites du cosmopolitisme propre au « globalisme ». La trajectoire du restaurateur se transforme en héritage par le biais d’un ego-récit qui s’utilise comme une ressource commerciale. Les restaurateurs intériorisent les désirs des clients. Plus que la recherche de goûts inconnus ou d’une altérité radicale imaginée comme authentique, ceux-ci veulent avant tout identifier les ingrédients ingérés, avoir une idée de leur provenance, et respecter un ensemble (instable de normes nutritionnelles subsumé aujourd’hui à Manhattan par la catégorie indigène healthy. Les restaurateurs anticipent ces désirs en opérant sur les plats un travail de retrait, de séparation et de substitution des ingrédients. L’exotisme s’est mis au régime.This paper is based on ethnographic fieldwork (november 2008-january 2009 in Manhattan with eight entrepreneurs who became Chef and/or restaurant manager after they immigrated in New York. Not any one has an academic culinary background and they all propose food from regions (Africa, and North Africa which are not yet offered (or not much offered in the city. The author stresses on two cases studies to question informal market strategies, cosmopolitanism and globalism limits. Restaurant owner’s trajectory – a narrative which becomes a heritage - is used as a market resource. Restaurants internalize and anticipate customers’ desires; In fact town people doesn

  4. Phlébotomes de Bolivie: VII. Répartition des deux morphotypes du phlébotome lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz et Neiva, 1912 (Diptera: Psychodidae dans le piémont andin de Bolivie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francois Le Pont

    1989-09-01

    Full Text Available Deux morphotypes de Lytzomyia longipalpis (Lutz et Neiva, 1912 ont été décrits au Brésil, l'un avec une seule paire de taches tergales, l'autre avec deux paires de taches. Ce caractère est propre aux mâles. En Bolivie, la forme à une tache existe seule dans le foyer de leishmaniose viscérale des Yungas (alt. 1000-2000 m dans l'envirionnement péridomicilliaire; c'est le vecteur confirmé de cette maladie. Le second morphotype à deux taches a été récemment découvert sous le porche de grottes dans le région de Cochabamba (alt. 2700 m; il était absent dans et autour des habitations de cette région, où la leishmaniose vicérale est inconnue. Les deux morphotypes de Lu. longipalpis ont, en Bolivie, une distribution allopatrique, et leurs écologies respectives sont très différentes.

  5. Phenotype Recognition with Combined Features and Random Subspace Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pham Tuan D

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Automated, image based high-content screening is a fundamental tool for discovery in biological science. Modern robotic fluorescence microscopes are able to capture thousands of images from massively parallel experiments such as RNA interference (RNAi or small-molecule screens. As such, efficient computational methods are required for automatic cellular phenotype identification capable of dealing with large image data sets. In this paper we investigated an efficient method for the extraction of quantitative features from images by combining second order statistics, or Haralick features, with curvelet transform. A random subspace based classifier ensemble with multiple layer perceptron (MLP as the base classifier was then exploited for classification. Haralick features estimate image properties related to second-order statistics based on the grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM, which has been extensively used for various image processing applications. The curvelet transform has a more sparse representation of the image than wavelet, thus offering a description with higher time frequency resolution and high degree of directionality and anisotropy, which is particularly appropriate for many images rich with edges and curves. A combined feature description from Haralick feature and curvelet transform can further increase the accuracy of classification by taking their complementary information. We then investigate the applicability of the random subspace (RS ensemble method for phenotype classification based on microscopy images. A base classifier is trained with a RS sampled subset of the original feature set and the ensemble assigns a class label by majority voting. Results Experimental results on the phenotype recognition from three benchmarking image sets including HeLa, CHO and RNAi show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The combined feature is better than any individual one in the classification accuracy. The

  6. Generalized Ensemble Sampling of Enzyme Reaction Free Energy Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dongsheng; Fajer, Mikolai I.; Cao, Liaoran; Cheng, Xiaolin; Yang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Free energy path sampling plays an essential role in computational understanding of chemical reactions, particularly those occurring in enzymatic environments. Among a variety of molecular dynamics simulation approaches, the generalized ensemble sampling strategy is uniquely attractive for the fact that it not only can enhance the sampling of rare chemical events but also can naturally ensure consistent exploration of environmental degrees of freedom. In this review, we plan to provide a tutorial-like tour on an emerging topic: generalized ensemble sampling of enzyme reaction free energy path. The discussion is largely focused on our own studies, particularly ones based on the metadynamics free energy sampling method and the on-the-path random walk path sampling method. We hope that this mini presentation will provide interested practitioners some meaningful guidance for future algorithm formulation and application study. PMID:27498634

  7. Novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Bo; Li Xinjun; Zhao Zhiyan

    2006-01-01

    A novel algorithm for constructing support vector machine regression ensemble is proposed. As to regression prediction, support vector machine regression(SVMR) ensemble is proposed by resampling from given training data sets repeatedly and aggregating several independent SVMRs, each of which is trained to use a replicated training set. After training, several independently trained SVMRs need to be aggregated in an appropriate combination manner. Generally, the linear weighting is usually used like expert weighting score in Boosting Regression and it is without optimization capacity. Three combination techniques are proposed, including simple arithmetic mean,linear least square error weighting and nonlinear hierarchical combining that uses another upper-layer SVMR to combine several lower-layer SVMRs. Finally, simulation experiments demonstrate the accuracy and validity of the presented algorithm.

  8. ENSEMBLE DESIGN OF MASQUERADER DETECTION SYSTEMS FOR INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Subbulakshmi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Masqueraders are a category of intruders who impersonate other people on a computer system and use this entry point to use the information stored in the systems or throw other attacks into the network. This paper focuses on Ensemble Design of a Masquerader Detection System using Decision trees and Support Vector Machines for classification with two kernel functions linear and linear BSpline. The key idea is to find out specific patterns of command sequence that tells about user behaviour on a system, and use them to build classifiers that can perfectly recognize anomalous and normal behaviour. Real time truncated command line data set collected from a debian Linux server is used for performance comparison of the developed classifiers with the standard truncated command line data set of Schonlau[4]. The results show that Ensemble Design of Masquerader Detection Systems is much faster than individual Decision trees or Support Vector Machines.

  9. On an average over the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Mezzadri, F

    2009-01-01

    We study the asymptotic limit for large matrix dimension N of the partition function of the unitary ensemble with weight exp(-z^2/2x^2 + t/x - x^2/2). We compute the leading order term of the partition function and of the coefficients of its Taylor expansion. Our results are valid in the range N^(-1/2) < z < N^(1/4). Such partition function contains all the information on a new statistics of the eigenvalues of matrices in the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE) that was introduced by Berry and Shukla (J. Phys. A: Math. Theor., Vol. 41 (2008), 385202, arXiv:0807.3474). It can also be interpreted as the moment generating function of a singular linear statistics.

  10. Separating Signal From Background Using Ensembles of Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, J.H.; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

    2006-12-01

    Machine learning has emerged as a important tool for separating signal events from associated background in high energy particle physics experiments. This paper describes a new machine learning method based on ensembles of rules. Each rule consists of a conjuction of a small number of simple statements (''cuts'') concerning the values of individual input variables. These rule ensembles produce predictive accuracy comparable to the best methods. However their principal advantage lies in interpretation. Because of its simple form, each rule is easy to understand, as is its influence on the predictive model. Similarly, the degree of relevance of each of the respective input variables can be assessed. Graphical representations are presented that can be used to ascertain the dependence of the model jointly on the variables used for prediction.

  11. Statistical ensembles of virialized halo matter density profiles

    CERN Document Server

    Carron, Julien

    2013-01-01

    We define and study statistical ensembles of matter density profiles describing spherically symmetric, virialized dark matter haloes of finite extent with a given mass and total gravitational potential energy. We provide an exact solution for the grand canonical partition functional, and show its equivalence to that of the microcanonical ensemble. We obtain analytically the mean profiles that correspond to an overwhelming majority of micro-states. All such profiles have an infinitely deep potential well, with the singular isothermal sphere arising in the infinite temperature limit. Systems with virial radius larger than gravitational radius exhibit a localization of a finite fraction of the energy in the very center. The universal logarithmic inner slope of unity of the NFW haloes is predicted at any mass and energy if an upper bound is set to the maximal depth of the potential well. In this case, the statistically favored mean profiles compare well to the NFW profiles. For very massive haloes the agreement b...

  12. Weighted ensemble transform Kalman filter for image assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastien Beyou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an extension of the Weighted Ensemble Kalman filter (WEnKF proposed by Papadakis et al. (2010 for the assimilation of image observations. The main focus of this study is on a novel formulation of the Weighted filter with the Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (WETKF, incorporating directly as a measurement model a non-linear image reconstruction criterion. This technique has been compared to the original WEnKF on numerical and real world data of 2-D turbulence observed through the transport of a passive scalar. In particular, it has been applied for the reconstruction of oceanic surface current vorticity fields from sea surface temperature (SST satellite data. This latter technique enables a consistent recovery along time of oceanic surface currents and vorticity maps in presence of large missing data areas and strong noise.

  13. Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yiou

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783 and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.

  14. A Multiresolution Ensemble Kalman Filter using Wavelet Decomposition

    CERN Document Server

    Hickmann, Kyle S

    2015-01-01

    We present a method of using classical wavelet based multiresolution analysis to separate scales in model and observations during data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. In many applications, the underlying physics of a phenomena involve the interaction of features at multiple scales. Blending of observational and model error across scales can result in large forecast inaccuracies since large errors at one scale are interpreted as inexact data at all scales. Our method uses a transformation of the observation operator in order to separate the information from different scales of the observations. This naturally induces a transformation of the observation covariance and we put forward several algorithms to efficiently compute the transformed covariance. Another advantage of our multiresolution ensemble Kalman filter is that scales can be weighted independently to adjust each scale's effect on the forecast. To demonstrate feasibility we present applications to a one dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (...

  15. Saturation of number variance in embedded random-matrix ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Ravi; Pandey, Akhilesh

    2016-05-01

    We study fluctuation properties of embedded random matrix ensembles of noninteracting particles. For ensemble of two noninteracting particle systems, we find that unlike the spectra of classical random matrices, correlation functions are nonstationary. In the locally stationary region of spectra, we study the number variance and the spacing distributions. The spacing distributions follow the Poisson statistics, which is a key behavior of uncorrelated spectra. The number variance varies linearly as in the Poisson case for short correlation lengths but a kind of regularization occurs for large correlation lengths, and the number variance approaches saturation values. These results are known in the study of integrable systems but are being demonstrated for the first time in random matrix theory. We conjecture that the interacting particle cases, which exhibit the characteristics of classical random matrices for short correlation lengths, will also show saturation effects for large correlation lengths.

  16. Control of inhomogeneous atomic ensembles of hyperfine qudits

    CERN Document Server

    Mischuck, Brian E; Deutsch, Ivan H

    2011-01-01

    We study the ability to control d-dimensional quantum systems (qudits) encoded in the hyperfine spin of alkali-metal atoms through the application of radio- and microwave-frequency magnetic fields in the presence of inhomogeneities in amplitude and detuning. Such a capability is essential to the design of robust pulses that mitigate the effects of experimental uncertainty and also for application to tomographic addressing of particular members of an extended ensemble. We study the problem of preparing an arbitrary state in the Hilbert space from an initial fiducial state. We prove that inhomogeneous control of qudit ensembles is possible based on a semi-analytic protocol that synthesizes the target through a sequence of alternating rf and microwave-driven SU(2) rotations in overlapping irreducible subspaces. Several examples of robust control are studied, and the semi-analytic protocol is compared to a brute force, full numerical search. For small inhomogeneities, < 1%, both approaches achieve average fide...

  17. An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming

    Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.

  18. Loschmidt echoes in two-body random matrix ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pižorn, Iztok; Prosen, Tomaž; Seligman, Thomas H.

    2007-07-01

    Fidelity decay is studied for quantum many-body systems with a dominant independent particle Hamiltonian resulting, e.g., from a mean field theory with a weak two-body interaction. The diagonal terms of the interaction are included in the unperturbed Hamiltonian, while the off-diagonal terms constitute the perturbation that distorts the echo. We give the linear response solution for this problem in a random matrix framework. While the ensemble average shows no surprising behavior, we find that the typical ensemble member as represented by the median displays a very slow fidelity decay known as “freeze.” Numerical calculations confirm this result and show that the ground state even on average displays the freeze. This may contribute to explanation of the “unreasonable” success of mean field theories.

  19. Two-point Correlator Fits on HISQ Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Bouchard, C; DeTar, C; Du, D; El-Khadra, A X; Foley, J; Freeland, E D; Gamiz, E; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Kim, J; Kronfeld, A S; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Lightman, M; Mackenzie, P B; Neil, E T; Oktay, M; Simone, J N; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2012-01-01

    We present our methods to fit the two point correlators for light, strange, and charmed pseudoscalar meson physics with the highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) action. We make use of the least-squares fit including the full covariance matrix of the correlators and including Gaussian constraints on some parameters. We fit the correlators on a variety of the HISQ ensembles. The lattice spacing ranges from 0.15 fm down to 0.06 fm. The light sea quark mass ranges from 0.2 times the strange quark mass down to the physical light quark mass. The HISQ ensembles also include lattices with different volumes and with unphysical values of the strange quark mass. We use the results from this work to obtain our preliminary results of $f_D$, $f_{D_s}$, $f_{D_s}/f_{D}$, and ratios of quark masses presented in another talk [1].

  20. Impact of hybrid GSI analysis using ETR ensembles

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V S Prasad; C J Johny

    2016-04-01

    Performance of a hybrid assimilation system combining 3D Var based NGFS (NCMRWF Global ForecastSystem) with ETR (Ensemble Transform with Rescaling) based Global Ensemble Forecast (GEFS) ofresolution T-190L28 is investigated. The experiment is conducted for a period of one week in June 2013and forecast skills over different spatial domains are compared with respect to mean analysis state.Rainfall forecast is verified over Indian region against combined observations of IMD and NCMRWF.Hybrid assimilation produced marginal improvements in overall forecast skill in comparison with 3DVar. Hybrid experiment made significant improvement in wind forecasts in all the regions on verificationagainst mean analysis. The verification of forecasts with radiosonde observations also show improvementin wind forecasts with the hybrid assimilation. On verification against observations, hybrid experimentshows more improvement in temperature and wind forecasts at upper levels. Both hybrid and operational3D Var failed in prediction of extreme rainfall event over Uttarakhand on 17 June, 2013.

  1. Saturation of number variance in embedded random-matrix ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Ravi; Pandey, Akhilesh

    2016-05-01

    We study fluctuation properties of embedded random matrix ensembles of noninteracting particles. For ensemble of two noninteracting particle systems, we find that unlike the spectra of classical random matrices, correlation functions are nonstationary. In the locally stationary region of spectra, we study the number variance and the spacing distributions. The spacing distributions follow the Poisson statistics, which is a key behavior of uncorrelated spectra. The number variance varies linearly as in the Poisson case for short correlation lengths but a kind of regularization occurs for large correlation lengths, and the number variance approaches saturation values. These results are known in the study of integrable systems but are being demonstrated for the first time in random matrix theory. We conjecture that the interacting particle cases, which exhibit the characteristics of classical random matrices for short correlation lengths, will also show saturation effects for large correlation lengths.

  2. On truncated generalized Gibbs ensembles in the Ising field theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essler, F. H. L.; Mussardo, G.; Panfil, M.

    2017-01-01

    We discuss the implementation of two different truncated Generalized Gibbs Ensembles (GGE) describing the stationary state after a mass quench process in the Ising Field Theory. One truncated GGE is based on the semi-local charges of the model, the other on regularized versions of its ultra-local charges. We test the efficiency of the two different ensembles by comparing their predictions for the stationary state values of the single-particle Green’s function G(x)= of the complex fermion field \\psi (x) . We find that both truncated GGEs are able to recover G(x), but for a given number of charges the semi-local version performs better.

  3. Security Enrichment in Intrusion Detection System Using Classifier Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uma R. Salunkhe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the era of Internet and with increasing number of people as its end users, a large number of attack categories are introduced daily. Hence, effective detection of various attacks with the help of Intrusion Detection Systems is an emerging trend in research these days. Existing studies show effectiveness of machine learning approaches in handling Intrusion Detection Systems. In this work, we aim to enhance detection rate of Intrusion Detection System by using machine learning technique. We propose a novel classifier ensemble based IDS that is constructed using hybrid approach which combines data level and feature level approach. Classifier ensembles combine the opinions of different experts and improve the intrusion detection rate. Experimental results show the improved detection rates of our system compared to reference technique.

  4. Multiverse as an ensemble of stable and unstable Universes

    CERN Document Server

    Urbanowski, K

    2015-01-01

    Calculations performed within the Standard Model suggest that the electroweak vacuum is unstable if the mass of the Higgs particle is around 125 --- 126 GeV. Recent LHC results concerning the mass of the Higgs boson indicate that its mass is around 125.7 GeV. So it is possible that the vacuum in our Universe may be unstable. This means that it is reasonable to analyze properties of Universes with unstable vacua. We analyze properties of an ensemble of Universes with unstable vacua considered as an ensemble of unstable systems from the point of view of the quantum theory of unstable states and we try to explain why the universes with the unstable vacuum needs not decay.

  5. Observation Quality Control with a Robust Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, Soojin

    2013-12-01

    Current ensemble-based Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithms are not robust to gross observation errors caused by technical or human errors during the data collection process. In this paper, the authors consider two types of gross observational errors, additive statistical outliers and innovation outliers, and introduce a method to make EnKF robust to gross observation errors. Using both a one-dimensional linear system of dynamics and a 40-variable Lorenz model, the performance of the proposed robust ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) was tested and it was found that the new approach greatly improves the performance of the filter in the presence of gross observation errors and leads to only a modest loss of accuracy with clean, outlier-free, observations.

  6. Macrostate equivalence of two general ensembles and specific relative entropies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Takashi

    2016-08-01

    The two criteria of ensemble equivalence, i.e., macrostate equivalence and measure equivalence, are investigated for a general pair of states. Macrostate equivalence implies the two ensembles are indistinguishable by the measurement of macroscopic quantities obeying the large-deviation principle, and measure equivalence means that the specific relative entropy of these two states vanishes in the thermodynamic limit. It is shown that measure equivalence implies a macrostate equivalence for a general pair of states by deriving an inequality connecting the large-deviation rate functions to the specific relative Renyi entropies. The result is applicable to both quantum and classical systems. As applications, a sufficient condition for thermalization, the time scale of quantum dynamics of macrovariables, and the second law with strict irreversibility in a quantum quench are discussed.

  7. The limit shape problem for ensembles of Young diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Hora, Akihito

    2016-01-01

    This book treats ensembles of Young diagrams originating from group-theoretical contexts and investigates what statistical properties are observed there in a large-scale limit. The focus is mainly on analyzing the interesting phenomenon that specific curves appear in the appropriate scaling limit for the profiles of Young diagrams. This problem is regarded as an important origin of recent vital studies on harmonic analysis of huge symmetry structures. As mathematics, an asymptotic theory of representations is developed of the symmetric groups of degree n as n goes to infinity. The framework of rigorous limit theorems (especially the law of large numbers) in probability theory is employed as well as combinatorial analysis of group characters of symmetric groups and applications of Voiculescu's free probability. The central destination here is a clear description of the asymptotic behavior of rescaled profiles of Young diagrams in the Plancherel ensemble from both static and dynamic points of view.

  8. Ensemble polarimetric SAR image classification based on contextual sparse representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lamei; Wang, Xiao; Zou, Bin; Qiao, Zhijun

    2016-05-01

    Polarimetric SAR image interpretation has become one of the most interesting topics, in which the construction of the reasonable and effective technique of image classification is of key importance. Sparse representation represents the data using the most succinct sparse atoms of the over-complete dictionary and the advantages of sparse representation also have been confirmed in the field of PolSAR classification. However, it is not perfect, like the ordinary classifier, at different aspects. So ensemble learning is introduced to improve the issue, which makes a plurality of different learners training and obtained the integrated results by combining the individual learner to get more accurate and ideal learning results. Therefore, this paper presents a polarimetric SAR image classification method based on the ensemble learning of sparse representation to achieve the optimal classification.

  9. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan;

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re......-search of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset....... The conferred results show that the prediction errors can be decreased, while the computation time is reduced....

  10. General phenomenology of ionization from aligned molecular ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Hockett, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Single and multi-photon ionization of aligned molecular ensembles is examined, with a particular focus on the link between the molecular axis distribution and observable in various angle-integrated and angle-resolved measurements. To maintain generality the problem is treated geometrically, with the aligned ensemble cast in terms of axis distribution moments, and the response of observables in terms of couplings to these moments. Within this formalism the angular momentum coupling is treated analytically, allowing for general characteristics - independent of the details of the ionization dynamics of a specific molecule - to be determined. Limiting cases are explored in order to provide a phenomenology which should be readily applicable to a range of experimental measurements, and illustrate how observables can be sensitive to fine details of the alignment, i.e. higher-order moments of the axis distribution, which are often neglected in experimental studies. We hope that this detailed and comprehensive treatme...

  11. The Use of Artificial-Intelligence-Based Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulshan Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In supervised learning-based classification, ensembles have been successfully employed to different application domains. In the literature, many researchers have proposed different ensembles by considering different combination methods, training datasets, base classifiers, and many other factors. Artificial-intelligence-(AI- based techniques play prominent role in development of ensemble for intrusion detection (ID and have many benefits over other techniques. However, there is no comprehensive review of ensembles in general and AI-based ensembles for ID to examine and understand their current research status to solve the ID problem. Here, an updated review of ensembles and their taxonomies has been presented in general. The paper also presents the updated review of various AI-based ensembles for ID (in particular during last decade. The related studies of AI-based ensembles are compared by set of evaluation metrics driven from (1 architecture & approach followed; (2 different methods utilized in different phases of ensemble learning; (3 other measures used to evaluate classification performance of the ensembles. The paper also provides the future directions of the research in this area. The paper will help the better understanding of different directions in which research of ensembles has been done in general and specifically: field of intrusion detection systems (IDSs.

  12. Nucleon structure from 2+1-flavor dynamical DWF ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Abramczyk, Michael; Lytle, Andrew; Ohta, Shigemi

    2016-01-01

    Nucleon isovector vector- and axialvector-current form factors, the renormalized isovector transversity and scalar charge, and the bare quark momentum and helicity moments of isovector structure functions are reported with improved statistics from two recent RBC+UKQCD 2+1-flavor dynamical domain-wall fermions ensembles: Iwasaki\\(\\times\\)DSDR gauge \\(32^3\\times64\\) at inverse lattice spacing of 1.38 GeV and pion mass of 249 and 172 MeV.

  13. Aspects of dynamical dimensional reduction in multigraph ensembles of CDT

    CERN Document Server

    Giasemidis, Georgios; Zohren, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    We study the continuum limit of a "radially reduced" approximation of Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT), so-called multigraph ensembles, and explain why they serve as realistic toy models to study the dimensional reduction observed in numerical simulations of four-dimensional CDT. We present properties of this approximation in two, three and four dimensions comparing them with the numerical simulations and pointing out some common features with 2+1 dimensional Horava-Lifshitz gravity.

  14. A model for luminescence of localized state ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Q.; Xu, S. J.; Xie, M H; Tong, S. Y.

    2004-01-01

    A distribution function for localized carriers, $f(E,T)=\\frac{1}{e^{(E-E_a)/k_BT}+\\tau_{tr}/\\tau_r}$, is proposed by solving a rate equation, in which, electrical carriers' generation, thermal escape, recapture and radiative recombination are taken into account. Based on this distribution function, a model is developed for luminescence from localized state ensemble with a Gaussian-type density of states. The model reproduces quantitatively all the anomalous temperature behaviors of localized ...

  15. On serial observation processing in localized ensemble Kalman filters

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ensemble square root filters can either assimilate all observations that are available at a given time at once, or assimilate the observations in batches or one at a time. For large-scale models, the filters are typically applied with a localized analysis step. This study demonstrates that the interaction of serial observation processing and localization can destabilize the analysis process and examines under which conditions the instability becomes significant. The instabil...

  16. Ensemble Learned Vaccination Uptake Prediction using Web Search Queries

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Niels Dalum; Lioma, Christina; Mølbak, Kåre

    2016-01-01

    We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake eff?ectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields...

  17. Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, James C. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.

  18. Stochastic ensembles, conformationally adaptive teamwork, and enzymatic detoxification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, William M; Qian, Hong

    2011-05-17

    It has been appreciated for a long time that enzymes exist as conformational ensembles throughout multiple stages of the reactions they catalyze, but there is renewed interest in the functional implications. The energy landscape that results from conformationlly diverse poteins is a complex surface with an energetic topography in multiple dimensions, even at the transition state(s) leading to product formation, and this represents a new paradigm. At the same time there has been renewed interest in conformational ensembles, a new paradigm concerning enzyme function has emerged, wherein catalytic promiscuity has clear biological advantages in some cases. "Useful", or biologically functional, promiscuity or the related behavior of "multifunctionality" can be found in the immune system, enzymatic detoxification, signal transduction, and the evolution of new function from an existing pool of folded protein scaffolds. Experimental evidence supports the widely held assumption that conformational heterogeneity promotes functional promiscuity. The common link between these coevolving paradigms is the inherent structural plasticity and conformational dynamics of proteins that, on one hand, lead to complex but evolutionarily selected energy landscapes and, on the other hand, promote functional promiscuity. Here we consider a logical extension of the overlap between these two nascent paradigms: functionally promiscuous and multifunctional enzymes such as detoxification enzymes are expected to have an ensemble landscape with more states accessible on multiple time scales than substrate specific enzymes. Two attributes of detoxification enzymes become important in the context of conformational ensembles: these enzymes metabolize multiple substrates, often in substrate mixtures, and they can form multiple products from a single substrate. These properties, combined with complex conformational landscapes, lead to the possibility of interesting time-dependent, or emergent

  19. On Black Hole Entropy Corrections in the Grand Canonical Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Mahapatra, Subhash; Sarkar, Tapobrata

    2011-01-01

    We study entropy corrections due to thermal fluctuations for asymptotically AdS black holes in the grand canonical ensemble. To leading order, these can be expressed in terms of the black hole response coefficients via fluctuation moments. We also analyze entropy corrections due to mass and charge fluctuations of R-charged black holes, and our results indicate an universality in the logarithmic corrections to charged AdS black hole entropy in various dimensions.

  20. Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Halvorsen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.

  1. Towards Segmenting Consumer Stereo Videos: Benchmark, Baselines and Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Chiu, Wei-Chen; GALASSO, Fabio; Fritz, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Are we ready to segment consumer stereo videos? The amount of this data type is rapidly increasing and encompasses rich information of appearance, motion and depth cues. However, the segmentation of such data is still largely unexplored. First, we propose therefore a new benchmark: videos, annotations and metrics to measure progress on this emerging challenge. Second, we evaluate several state of the art segmentation methods and propose a novel ensemble method based on recent spectral theory....

  2. Work producing reservoirs: Stochastic thermodynamics with generalized Gibbs ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Jordan M.; Esposito, Massimiliano

    2016-08-01

    We develop a consistent stochastic thermodynamics for environments composed of thermodynamic reservoirs in an external conservative force field, that is, environments described by the generalized or Gibbs canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that small systems weakly coupled to such reservoirs exchange both heat and work by verifying a local detailed balance relation for the induced stochastic dynamics. Based on this analysis, we help to rationalize the observation that nonthermal reservoirs can increase the efficiency of thermodynamic heat engines.

  3. Prospects for the ensemble asteroseismology in young open clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Moździerski, Dawid

    2016-01-01

    This is a progress report on the ongoing project dealing with ensemble asteroseismology of B-type stars in young open clusters. The project is aimed at searches for B-type pulsating stars in open clusters, determination of atmospheric parameters for some members and seismic modeling of B-type pulsators. Some results for NGC 457, IC 1805, IC 4996, NGC 6910 and alpha Per open clusters are presented. For the last cluster, BRITE data for five members were used.

  4. Kinetic theory of non-hamiltonian statistical ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V.Zhukov

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonequilibrium statistical operator method is developed for ensembles of particles obeying non-Hamiltonian equations of motion in classical phase space. The main consequences of non-zero compressibility of phase space are examined in terms of time-dependent dynamic quantities. The generalized transport equations involve the phase-space compressibility in a non-trivial way. Our results are useful in molecular dynamics simulation studies as well as nonequilibrium or quasiclassical approximations of quantum-classical dynamics.

  5. Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sakradzija

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterization of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect the information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal due to the different shallow cloud subtypes. Each distribution mode can be approximated with a Weibull distribution, explaining the deviation from a single-parameter exponential shape through the diversity in cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterization is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.

  6. Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sakradzija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterisation of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a large eddy simulation (LES model and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal, due to the different shallow cloud subtypes, active and passive clouds. Each distribution mode can be approximated using a Weibull distribution, which is a generalisation of exponential distribution by accounting for the change in distribution shape due to the diversity of cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterisation is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.

  7. Snapshots of Anderson localization beyond the ensemble average

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Dardiry, Ramy G. S.; Faez, Sanli; Lagendijk, Ad

    2012-09-01

    We study (1+1)D transverse localization of electromagnetic radiation at microwave frequencies directly by two-dimensional spatial scans. Since the longitudinal direction can be mapped onto time, our experiments provide unique snapshots of the buildup of localized waves. The evolution of the wave functions is compared with semianalytical calculations. Studies beyond ensemble averages reveal counterintuitive surprises. Oscillations of the wave functions are observed in space and explained in terms of a beating between the eigenstates.

  8. Typicality in Ensembles of Quantum States: Monte Carlo Sampling vs Analytical Approximations

    CERN Document Server

    Fresch, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Random Quantum States are presently of interest in the fields of quantum information theory and quantum chaos. Moreover, a detailed study of their properties can shed light on some foundational issues of the quantum statistical mechanics such as the emergence of well defined thermal properties from the pure quantum mechanical description of large many body systems. When dealing with an ensemble of pure quantum states, two questions naturally arise: what is the probability density function on the parameters which specify the state of the system in a given ensemble? And, does there exist a most typical value of a function of interest in the considered ensemble? Here two different ensembles are considered: the Random Pure State Ensemble (RPSE) and the Fixed Expectation Energy Ensemble (FEEE). By means of a suitable parameterization of the wave function in terms of populations and phases, we focus on the probability distribution of the populations in such ensembles. A comparison is made between the distribution i...

  9. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  10. Probability Maps for the Visualization of Assimilation Ensemble Flow Data

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-05-25

    Ocean forecasts nowadays are created by running ensemble simulations in combination with data assimilation techniques. Most of these techniques resample the ensemble members after each assimilation cycle. This means that in a time series, after resampling, every member can follow up on any of the members before resampling. Tracking behavior over time, such as all possible paths of a particle in an ensemble vector field, becomes very difficult, as the number of combinations rises exponentially with the number of assimilation cycles. In general a single possible path is not of interest but only the probabilities that any point in space might be reached by a particle at some point in time. In this work we present an approach using probability-weighted piecewise particle trajectories to allow such a mapping interactively, instead of tracing quadrillions of individual particles. We achieve interactive rates by binning the domain and splitting up the tracing process into the individual assimilation cycles, so that particles that fall into the same bin after a cycle can be treated as a single particle with a larger probability as input for the next time step. As a result we loose the possibility to track individual particles, but can create probability maps for any desired seed at interactive rates.

  11. Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David

    2012-01-01

    Aquatic invasive species pose major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide via displacement, predation, or hybridization with native species and the alteration of aquatic habitats and hydrologic cycles. Modeling the habitat suitability of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important risk assessment tool. Habitat modeling also facilitates identification of key environmental variables influencing invasive species distributions. We compared four modeling methods to predict the potential continental United States distributions of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842), round goby Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas, 1814), and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes, 1844) using maximum entropy (Maxent), the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), DOMAIN, and support vector machines (SVM). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database and a geographic information system of 20 climatic and environmental variables to generate individual and ensemble distribution maps for each species. The ensemble maps from our study performed as well as or better than all of the individual models except Maxent. The ensemble and Maxent models produced significantly higher accuracy individual maps than GARP, one-class SVMs, or DOMAIN. The key environmental predictor variables in the individual models were consistent with the tolerances of each species. Results from this study provide insights into which locations and environmental conditions may promote the future spread of invasive fish in the US.

  12. Thermodynamics and kinetics of a molecular motor ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J E; Thomas, D D

    2000-10-01

    If, contrary to conventional models of muscle, it is assumed that molecular forces equilibrate among rather than within molecular motors, an equation of state and an expression for energy output can be obtained for a near-equilibrium, coworking ensemble of molecular motors. These equations predict clear, testable relationships between motor structure, motor biochemistry, and ensemble motor function, and we discuss these relationships in the context of various experimental studies. In this model, net work by molecular motors is performed with the relaxation of a near-equilibrium intermediate step in a motor-catalyzed reaction. The free energy available for work is localized to this step, and the rate at which this free energy is transferred to work is accelerated by the free energy of a motor-catalyzed reaction. This thermodynamic model implicitly deals with a motile cell system as a dynamic network (not a rigid lattice) of molecular motors within which the mechanochemistry of one motor influences and is influenced by the mechanochemistry of other motors in the ensemble.

  13. Ensemble feature selection integrating elitist roles and quantum game model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weiping Ding; Jiandong Wang; Zhijin Guan; Quan Shi

    2015-01-01

    To accelerate the selection process of feature subsets in the rough set theory (RST), an ensemble elitist roles based quantum game (EERQG) algorithm is proposed for feature selec-tion. Firstly, the multilevel elitist roles based dynamics equilibrium strategy is established, and both immigration and emigration of elitists are able to be self-adaptive to balance between exploration and exploitation for feature selection. Secondly, the utility matrix of trust margins is introduced to the model of multilevel elitist roles to enhance various elitist roles’ performance of searching the optimal feature subsets, and the win-win utility solutions for feature selec-tion can be attained. Meanwhile, a novel ensemble quantum game strategy is designed as an intriguing exhibiting structure to perfect the dynamics equilibrium of multilevel elitist roles. Final y, the en-semble manner of multilevel elitist roles is employed to achieve the global minimal feature subset, which wil greatly improve the fea-sibility and effectiveness. Experiment results show the proposed EERQG algorithm has superiority compared to the existing feature selection algorithms.

  14. Beta ensembles, quantum Painlev\\'e equations and isomonodromy systems

    CERN Document Server

    Rumanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    This is a review of recent developments in the theory of beta ensembles of random matrices and their relations with conformal filed theory (CFT). There are (almost) no new results here. This article can serve as a guide on appearances and studies of quantum Painlev\\'e and more general multidimensional linear equations of Belavin-Polyakov-Zamolodchikov (BPZ) type in literature. We demonstrate how BPZ equations of CFT arise from $\\beta$-ensemble eigenvalue integrals. Quantum Painlev\\'e equations are relatively simple instances of BPZ or confluent BPZ equations, they are PDEs in two independent variables ("time" and "space"). While CFT is known as quantum integrable theory, here we focus on the appearing links of $\\beta$-ensembles and CFT with {\\it classical} integrable structure and isomonodromy systems. The central point is to show on the example of quantum Painlev\\'e II (QPII)~\\cite{betaFP1} how classical integrable structure can be extended to general values of $\\beta$ (or CFT central charge $c$), beyond the...

  15. Ensembles of physical states and random quantum circuits on graphs

    CERN Document Server

    Hamma, Alioscia; Zanardi, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we continue and extend the investigations of the ensembles of random physical states introduced in A. Hamma et al arXiv:1109.4391. These ensembles are constructed by finite-length random quantum circuits (RQC) acting on (hyper)edges of an underlying (hyper)graph structure. The latter encodes for the locality structure associated with finite-time quantum evolutions generated by physical i.e., local, Hamiltonians. Our goal is to analyze physical properties of typical states in these ensembles, in particular here we focus on proxies of quantum entanglement as purity and $\\alpha$-Renyi entropies. The problem is formulated in terms of matrix elements of superoperators which depend on the graph structure, choice of probability measure over the local unitaries and circuit length. In the $\\alpha=2$ case these superoperators act on a restricted multi-qubit space generated by permutation operators associated to the subsets of vertices of the graph. For permutationally invariant interactions the dynamics c...

  16. Ensemble Kinetic Modeling of Metabolic Networks from Dynamic Metabolic Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gengjie Jia

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Kinetic modeling of metabolic pathways has important applications in metabolic engineering, but significant challenges still remain. The difficulties faced vary from finding best-fit parameters in a highly multidimensional search space to incomplete parameter identifiability. To meet some of these challenges, an ensemble modeling method is developed for characterizing a subset of kinetic parameters that give statistically equivalent goodness-of-fit to time series concentration data. The method is based on the incremental identification approach, where the parameter estimation is done in a step-wise manner. Numerical efficacy is achieved by reducing the dimensionality of parameter space and using efficient random parameter exploration algorithms. The shift toward using model ensembles, instead of the traditional “best-fit” models, is necessary to directly account for model uncertainty during the application of such models. The performance of the ensemble modeling approach has been demonstrated in the modeling of a generic branched pathway and the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using generalized mass action (GMA kinetics.

  17. Downscaling a perturbed physics ensemble over the CORDEX Africa domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buontempo, Carlo; Williams, Karina; McSweeney, Carol; Jones, Richard; Mathison, Camilla; Wang, Chang

    2014-05-01

    We present here the methodology and the results of 5-member ensemble simulation of the climate of Africa for the period 1950-2100 using climate modelling system PRECIS over the CORDEX Africa domain. The boundary conditions for the regional model simulations were selected from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble based on the HadCM3 global climate model (Murphy et al. 2007) following the methodology described in McSweeney et al 2012. Such an approach was selected in order to provide a good representation of the overall ensemble spread over a number of sub regions while at the same time avoiding members which have demonstrate particularly unrealistic characteristics in their baseline climate. In the simulations a special attention was given to the representation of some inland water bodies, such as lake Victoria, whose impact on the regional climate was believed to be significant thus allowing for the representation of some regional processes (e.g. land-lake breezes) that were not represented in the global models. In particular the SSTs of the lakes were corrected to better represent the local climatological values. The results suggest that RCM simulations improve the fit to observations of precipitation and temperature in most of the African sub-regions (e.g. North Africa, West Sahel). Also, the range of RCM projections is often different to those from the GCMs in these regions. We discuss the reasons for and links between these results and their implications for use in informing adaptation policy at regional level.

  18. Local Ensemble Kalman Particle Filters for efficient data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Robert, Sylvain

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models with higher and higher resolution, which brings new challenges for data assimilation techniques because of the presence of non-linear and non-Gaussian features that are not adequately treated by the EnKF. We propose two new localized algorithms based on the Ensemble Kalman Particle Filter (EnKPF), a hybrid method combining the EnKF and the Particle Filter (PF) in a way that maintains scalability and sample diversity. Localization is a key element of the success of EnKFs in practice, but it is much more challenging to apply to PFs. The algorithms that we introduce in the present paper provide a compromise between the EnKF and the PF while avoiding some of the problems of localization for pure PFs. Numerical experiments with a simplified model of cumulus convection based on a...

  19. Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiboult, Antoine; Anctil, François; Boucher, Marie-Amélie

    2016-05-01

    Seeking more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims to untangle the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their respective contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stages in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tools used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial conditions uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improving the general forecasting performance and prevents this performance from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the EnKF tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. HIPPI: highly accurate protein family classification with ensembles of HMMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam-phuong Nguyen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given a new biological sequence, detecting membership in a known family is a basic step in many bioinformatics analyses, with applications to protein structure and function prediction and metagenomic taxon identification and abundance profiling, among others. Yet family identification of sequences that are distantly related to sequences in public databases or that are fragmentary remains one of the more difficult analytical problems in bioinformatics. Results We present a new technique for family identification called HIPPI (Hierarchical Profile Hidden Markov Models for Protein family Identification. HIPPI uses a novel technique to represent a multiple sequence alignment for a given protein family or superfamily by an ensemble of profile hidden Markov models computed using HMMER. An evaluation of HIPPI on the Pfam database shows that HIPPI has better overall precision and recall than blastp, HMMER, and pipelines based on HHsearch, and maintains good accuracy even for fragmentary query sequences and for protein families with low average pairwise sequence identity, both conditions where other methods degrade in accuracy. Conclusion HIPPI provides accurate protein family identification and is robust to difficult model conditions. Our results, combined with observations from previous studies, show that ensembles of profile Hidden Markov models can better represent multiple sequence alignments than a single profile Hidden Markov model, and thus can improve downstream analyses for various bioinformatic tasks. Further research is needed to determine the best practices for building the ensemble of profile Hidden Markov models. HIPPI is available on GitHub at https://github.com/smirarab/sepp .

  2. Gradient flow and scale setting on MILC HISQ ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S

    2015-01-01

    We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from approximately 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ and their tree-level improvements, $\\sqrt{t_{0,{\\rm imp}}}$ and $w_{0,{\\rm imp}}$, are computed on each ensemble using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of the energy density $E$. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor-series ansatz for the lattice-spacing and strong-coupling dependence, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We determine the scales $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1416({}_{-5}^{+8})$ fm and $w_0 = 0.1717({}_{-11}^{+12})$ fm, where the errors are sums, in quadrature, of statistical and all systematic errors. The precision of $w_0$ and $\\sqrt{t_0}$ is comparable to or more precise than...

  3. Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis C González

    Full Text Available Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.

  4. Normal mode-based approaches in receptor ensemble docking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavasotto, Claudio N

    2012-01-01

    Explicitly accounting for target flexibility in docking still constitutes a difficult challenge due to the high dimensionality of the conformational space to be sampled. This especially applies to the high-throughput scenario, where the screening of hundreds of thousands compounds takes place. The use of multiple receptor conformations (MRCs) to perform ensemble docking in a sequential fashion is a simple but powerful approach that allows to incorporate binding site structural diversity in the docking process. Whenever enough experimental structures to build a diverse ensemble are not available, normal mode analysis provides an appealing and efficient approach to in silico generate MRCs by distortion along few low-frequency modes that represent collective mid- and large-scale displacements. In this way, the dimension of the conformational space to be sampled is heavily reduced. This methodology is especially suited to incorporate target flexibility at the backbone level. In this chapter, the main components of normal mode-based approaches in the context of ensemble docking are presented and explained, including the theoretical and practical considerations needed for the successful development and implementation of this methodology.

  5. Geometric integrator for simulations in the canonical ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapias, Diego; Sanders, David P.; Bravetti, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    We introduce a geometric integrator for molecular dynamics simulations of physical systems in the canonical ensemble that preserves the invariant distribution in equations arising from the density dynamics algorithm, with any possible type of thermostat. Our integrator thus constitutes a unified framework that allows the study and comparison of different thermostats and of their influence on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium (thermo-)dynamic properties of a system. To show the validity and the generality of the integrator, we implement it with a second-order, time-reversible method and apply it to the simulation of a Lennard-Jones system with three different thermostats, obtaining good conservation of the geometrical properties and recovering the expected thermodynamic results. Moreover, to show the advantage of our geometric integrator over a non-geometric one, we compare the results with those obtained by using the non-geometric Gear integrator, which is frequently used to perform simulations in the canonical ensemble. The non-geometric integrator induces a drift in the invariant quantity, while our integrator has no such drift, thus ensuring that the system is effectively sampling the correct ensemble.

  6. Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.-Z. Liang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR ensemble modeling system has been developed to incorporate the largest choices of alternative parameterizations for cloud properties (cover, water, radius, optics, geometry, aerosol properties (type, profile, optics, radiation transfers (solar, infrared, and their interactions. These schemes form the most comprehensive collection currently available in the literature, including those used by the world leading general circulation models (GCMs. The CAR provides a unique framework to determine (via intercomparison across all schemes, reduce (via optimized ensemble simulations, and attribute specific key factors for (via physical process sensitivity analyses the model discrepancies and uncertainties in representing greenhouse gas, aerosol and cloud radiative forcing effects. This study presents a general description of the CAR system and illustrates its capabilities for climate modeling applications, especially in the context of estimating climate sensitivity and uncertainty range caused by cloud-aerosol-radiation interactions. For demonstration purpose, the evaluation is based on several CAR standalone and coupled climate model experiments, each comparing a limited subset of the full system ensemble with up to 896 members. It is shown that the quantification of radiative forcings and climate impacts strongly depends on the choices of the cloud, aerosol and radiation schemes. The prevailing schemes used in current GCMs are likely insufficient in variety and physically biased in a significant way. There exists large room for improvement by optimally combining radiation transfer with cloud property schemes.

  7. Searching and optimizing structure ensembles for complex flexible sugars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Junchao; Margulis, Claudio J; Case, David A

    2011-10-05

    NMR restrictions are suitable to specify the geometry of a molecule when a single well-defined global free energy minimum exists that is significantly lower than other local minima. Carbohydrates are quite flexible, and therefore, NMR observables do not always correlate with a single conformer but instead with an ensemble of low free energy conformers that can be accessed by thermal fluctuations. In this communication, we describe a novel procedure to identify and weight the contribution to the ensemble of local minima conformers based on comparison to residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) or other NMR observables, such as scalar couplings. A genetic algorithm is implemented to globally minimize the R factor comparing calculated RDCs to experiment. This is done by optimizing the weights of different conformers derived from the exhaustive local minima conformational search program, fast sugar structure prediction software (FSPS). We apply this framework to six human milk sugars, LND-1, LNF-1, LNF-2, LNF-3, LNnT, and LNT, and are able to determine corresponding population weights for the ensemble of conformers. Interestingly, our results indicate that in all cases the RDCs can be well represented by only a few most important conformers. This confirms that several, but not all of the glycosidic linkages in histo-blood group "epitopes" are quite rigid.

  8. Uncovering representations of sleep-associated hippocampal ensemble spike activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhe; Grosmark, Andres D.; Penagos, Hector; Wilson, Matthew A.

    2016-08-01

    Pyramidal neurons in the rodent hippocampus exhibit spatial tuning during spatial navigation, and they are reactivated in specific temporal order during sharp-wave ripples observed in quiet wakefulness or slow wave sleep. However, analyzing representations of sleep-associated hippocampal ensemble spike activity remains a great challenge. In contrast to wake, during sleep there is a complete absence of animal behavior, and the ensemble spike activity is sparse (low occurrence) and fragmental in time. To examine important issues encountered in sleep data analysis, we constructed synthetic sleep-like hippocampal spike data (short epochs, sparse and sporadic firing, compressed timescale) for detailed investigations. Based upon two Bayesian population-decoding methods (one receptive field-based, and the other not), we systematically investigated their representation power and detection reliability. Notably, the receptive-field-free decoding method was found to be well-tuned for hippocampal ensemble spike data in slow wave sleep (SWS), even in the absence of prior behavioral measure or ground truth. Our results showed that in addition to the sample length, bin size, and firing rate, number of active hippocampal pyramidal neurons are critical for reliable representation of the space as well as for detection of spatiotemporal reactivated patterns in SWS or quiet wakefulness.

  9. Optimization of multi-model ensemble forecasting of typhoon waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-qi Pan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models (model-ensembles. The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the Optimization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to implement and practical for real-time wave forecasting.

  10. Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

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    Łukasz Augustyniak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

  11. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-10-02

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  12. Gibbs Ensemble Monte-Carlo方法及其应用%GIBBS ENSEMBLE MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION AND ITS APPLICATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It introduces a Gibbs Ensemble Monte-Carlo method,which was recently invented.This method has been applied for studying the phase diagrams of Lennard-Jones mixtures,and Methane and Tetrafluoromethane.The obtained results of simulations are in good agreement with experimental and previous results.%介绍一种新的且非常实用的Gibbs Ensemble Monte-Carlo模拟技术。并给出模拟甲烷和氟甲烷混合物的液体-液体相图以及Lennard-Jones混合物相图。将模拟的相图与实验得出的相图进行了对比。

  13. Towards reliable seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts for ephemeral rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, James; Wang, Qj; Li, Ming; Robertson, David

    2016-04-01

    Despite their inherently variable nature, ephemeral rivers are an important water resource in many dry regions. Water managers are likely benefit considerably from even mildly skilful ensemble forecasts of streamflow in ephemeral rivers. As with any ensemble forecast, forecast uncertainty - i.e., the spread of the ensemble - must be reliably quantified to allow users of the forecasts to make well-founded decisions. Correctly quantifying uncertainty in ephemeral rivers is particularly challenging because of the high incidence of zero flows, which are difficult to handle with conventional statistical techniques. Here we apply a seasonal streamflow forecasting system, the model for generating Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS), to 26 Australian ephemeral rivers. FoGSS uses post-processed ensemble rainfall forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system to force an initialised monthly rainfall runoff model, and then applies a staged hydrological error model to describe and propagate hydrological uncertainty in the forecast. FoGSS produces 12-month streamflow forecasts; as forecast skill declines with lead time, the forecasts are designed to transit seamlessly to stochastic scenarios. The ensemble rainfall forecasts used in FoGSS are known to be unbiased and reliable, and we concentrate here on the hydrological error model. The FoGSS error model has several features that make it well suited to forecasting ephemeral rivers. First, FoGSS models the error after data is transformed with a log-sinh transformation. The log-sinh transformation is able to normalise even highly skewed data and homogenise its variance, allowing us to assume that errors are Gaussian. Second, FoGSS handles zero values using data censoring. Data censoring allows streamflow in ephemeral rivers to be treated as a continuous variable, rather than having to model the occurrence of non-zero values and the distribution of non-zero values separately. This greatly simplifies parameter

  14. Rappels vaccinaux hors programme élargi de vaccination dans deux écoles de l’éducation de base de Yaoundé, Cameroun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vougmo Meguejio Njua, Clémence; Nguefack, Félicitée; Chelo, David; Tejiokem, Mathurin; Kago, Innocent; Kobela, Marie

    2011-01-01

    Introduction L'absence des rappels vaccinaux est problématique dans les pays en développement où certaines maladies évitables par la vaccination font encore des victimes chez les enfants en raison d'une immunisation incomplète. L'identification des raisons de non rappel vaccinaux permettrait de proposer des solutions adaptées afin d'améliorer le statut vaccinal des enfants au-delà de 12 mois. Méthodes Cette étude descriptive transversale avait pour objectif d’évaluer le taux de rappels vaccinaux des enfants au-delà de la cible du programme élargi de vaccination (PEV). Elle s'est déroulée de Septembre à Novembre 2009 dans deux écoles d’éducation de base de Yaoundé. L’échantillonnage était consécutif et limité aux élèves âgés de deux à sept ans possédant des carnets de vaccination. Par souci d'uniformité, nous n'avons pas analysé les rappels des vaccins contre l'hépatite B et l'haemophilus introduits tardivement au Cameroun. Résultats L’étude a porté sur 310 élèves. La tranche d’âge de 2 à 4 ans représentait 69%. Seul 223 enfants (71,9%) étaient correctement vaccinés. Quant aux rappels vaccinaux diphtérie-tétanos-coqueluche et poliomyélite, les couvertures étaient insignifiantes (2,7% et 0% respectivement pour la première et la deuxième dose). Les raisons évoquées étaient l'absence de sensibilisation des parents (50%), le prix élevé des vaccins (48,69%) et la désinformation (1,31%). Conclusion Le recyclage du personnel de santé sur la vaccination est une nécessité. Les parents doivent être informés sur le déroulement, les prix et les lieux des rappels vaccinaux. La réduction des prix de vaccins faciliterait l'accès à une large tranche de la population. PMID:22187602

  15. Relire l’histoire coloniale au XVIIIe siècle. L’édition critique de l’Histoire des deux Indes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Platania, Marco

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available En 1781, Guillaume-Thomas Raynal (1713-1796, ancien directeur du “Mercure de France” et l’un des membres les mieux connus de la République des Lettres, s’exile de Paris pour se soustraire au décret du Parlement (25 mai qui voulait son emprisonnement. Il ne regagnera la France qu’en 1784, et Paris seulement en 1790. Qu’est-ce qui lui avait attiré la rage du Parlement? La Cour de Paris s’en était prise à quatre volumes qui venaient de paraître sous le nom de Raynal: l’Histoire politique et philosophique de l’établissement et du commerce des Européens dans les deux Indes. Cette oeuvre, célèbre à l’époque, est aujourd’hui l’objet d’une importante édition critique – la première qui en a jamais été faite. Cette entreprise éditoriale récente se saisit d’un moment important de la vie intellectuelle de la France d’Ancien Régime et de la circulation d’informations à l'échelle non seulement européenne mais mondiale. L’Histoire des deux Indes (comme elle fut appelée à l’époque et comme on l’appellera ici fut en effet un épisode remarquable à maints égards: elle eut un énorme succès commercial et suscita un débat national et international touchant non seulement l’Europe, mais aussi les Amériques. Sa diffusion tient d’un côté aux stratégies publicitaires mises en oeuvre par Raynal et ses éditeurs, mais aussi à l’actualité du sujet dont ils se saisirent: l’expansion coloniale et le développement du commerce extérieur décidaient de la fortune de nombreux citoyens (administrateurs, commerçants, ingénieurs, matelots et des finances des états; les découvertes géographiques et anthropologiques suscitaient la curiosité du public et maintes controverses autour des peuples et des civilisations jusqu’alors inconnus.

  16. La Voie royale et Voyage au bout de la nuit : deux réécritures françaises de Heart of darkness

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    Isabelle Guillaume

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Il s’agit de lire La Voie royale publiée par Malraux en 1930 et Voyage au bout de la nuit que Céline fait paraître deux ans plus tard comme deux hypertextes du roman de Conrad, Heart of Darkness (1901. Un tel projet semble pouvoir être justifié par une étude comparée du traitement du thème de l’altérité dans les trois fictions. Les trois récits disent à leur manière que le temps des découvertes et échu et qu’au motif de la découverte de territoires vierges, ce topos de la littérature d’aventure, se substitue celui de l’exploration d’autrui. Dès lors, la traversée de territoires, jungle africaine ou cambodgienne adopte pour les héros des fictions la forme de la télémachie. A l’horizon du déplace­ment se dessine une possible communion d’expérience et les trois textes soulignent, selon des modalités qui leur sont propres, l’identité des parcours et des destins. Pourtant, dans le même temps, les narrations se montrent tout aussi attachées à signifier l’opacité d’autrui et les scènes de rencontre qui devraient offrir un point d’orgue aux parcours s’organisent autour du motif de la lacune. Dès lors, l’enseignement de ces romans qui empruntent volontiers un tour aphoristique est similaire : la fraternité est dénoncée comme une illusion qui dissimule l’expérience authentique de la « séparation », pour reprendre un des leitmotive orchestrés par La Voie royale.

  17. Etude de la croissance de la truite commune Salmo trutta fario (L dans deux rivières du Finistère

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    PROUZET P.

    1977-10-01

    Full Text Available Des inventaires piscicoles réalisés depuis 1974 dans deux rivières du Finistère ont permis de préciser la croissance des populations de truites communes (Salmo trutta fario L. par deux méthodes différentes : scalimétrie et structure de population. Les résultats font apparaître une croissance faible à modérée comparable à celle des populations de truites de certaines rivières du Pays Basque et du Massif Central ou d'Angleterre et d'Irlande du Nord. La taille moyenne à 3 ans, lors de la première ponte, est comprise entre 19 et 23,5 cm. Compte tenu de la taille légale (tolérée en Bretagne à 18 cm, la plupart des truites sont pêchées avant d'avoir pu se reproduire. L'application du modèle de RICKER à une population de truites non exploitée, en faisant varier l'effort de pêche (exploitation modérée ou forte et la taille de première capture (15, 18 et 20 cm montre que, dans le cas d'une exploitation modérée, l'augmentation de la taille tolérée diminuerait le nombre des prises sans augmenter le potentiel reproducteur. Si l'exploitation est forte, l'augmentation de la taille tolérée à 20 cm permet d'accroître le potentiel reproducteur tout en conservant des captures comparables en nombre et en poids à celles effectuées dans le cadre d'une exploitation modérée à partir d'une longueur totale de 18 cm. Cet exemple théorique fait apparaître la nécessité d'une connaissance approfondie des paramètres régissant la population de truites et en particulier le taux d'exploitation afin de définir une taille limite de capture appropriée.

  18. Sémiotique et rhétorique dans deux contes de Machado de Assis Semiotics and Rhetoric in two short tales by Machado de Assis

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    Dilson Ferreira Cruz

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Le présent article se propose d’établir un dialogue productif entre la sémiotique du discours (ou greimassienne et la rhétorique, en examinant deux contes de l’écrivain brésilien Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis (1839-1908 intitulés Teoria do medalhão [« Théorie du médaillon »] et O espelho [« Le miroir »]. Ces deux textes, très différents dans leur forme et leur contenu, présentent un point commun : ils discutent un processus de « déconstruction d’identité ». Ainsi, dans le premier, un père se propose d’amener son fils à adopter un comportement et un discours vides – dépourvus, donc, d’identité – pour atteindre le prestige dans une société d’apparences. Dans le second, nous assistons à un processus involontaire de perte d’identité, ce qui extrapole des aspects discursifs pour s’emparer du sujet, en menaçant son existence même.This paper aims to promote a productive dialogue between French Semiotics (Greimas and Rhetoric, by analyzing two short tales by the Brazilian writer Joaquim Maria Machado de Assis (1839-1908, entitled Teoria do medalhão [“Theory of the medalhão”] and O espelho [“The mirror”]. Though very different in form and content, the two texts share a common point: both of them discuss some kind of “identity deconstruction” process. Thus, in the first tale, a father proposes to teach his son how to adopt an empty – and therefore devoid of identity – discourse and behavior so as to reach success in a society of appearances. In the second tale, we observe an involuntary process of identity loss, which goes beyond discourse and takes possession of the individual subject, thereby threatening his very existence.

  19. Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjic, Tijana; Mclaughlin, Dennis; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble.

  20. Comparison of four ensemble methods combining regional climate simulations over Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinming; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Fu, Congbin; Tang, Jianping; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; McGregor, John L.; Mabuchi, Kazuo

    2011-02-01

    A number of uncertainties exist in climate simulation because the results of climate models are influenced by factors such as their dynamic framework, physical processes, initial and driving fields, and horizontal and vertical resolution. The uncertainties of the model results may be reduced, and the credibility can be improved by employing multi-model ensembles. In this paper, multi-model ensemble results using 10-year simulations of five regional climate models (RCMs) from December 1988 to November 1998 over Asia are presented and compared. The simulation results are derived from phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia. Using the methods of the arithmetic mean, the weighted mean, multivariate linear regression, and singular value decomposition, the ensembles for temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure are carried out. The results show that the multi-RCM ensembles outperform the single RCMs in many aspects. Among the four ensemble methods used, the multivariate linear regression, based on the minimization of the root mean square errors, significantly improved the ensemble results. With regard to the spatial distribution of the mean climate, the ensemble result for temperature was better than that for precipitation. With an increasing number of models used in the ensembles, the ensemble results were more accurate. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble is an efficient approach to improve the results of regional climate simulations.