Development of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Women in Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shengfeng; Ogundiran, Temidayo O; Ademola, Adeyinka; Oluwasola, Olayiwola A; Adeoye, Adewunmi O; Sofoluwe, Adenike; Morhason-Bello, Imran; Odedina, Stella O; Agwai, Imaria; Adebamowo, Clement; Obajimi, Millicent; Ojengbede, Oladosu; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Huo, Dezheng

2018-04-20

Risk prediction models have been widely used to identify women at higher risk of breast cancer. We aim to develop a model for absolute breast cancer risk prediction for Nigerian women. A total of 1,811 breast cancer cases and 2,225 controls from the Nigerian Breast Cancer Study (NBCS, 1998~2015) were included. Subjects were randomly divided into the training and validation sets. Incorporating local incidence rates, multivariable logistic regressions were used to develop the model. The NBCS model included age, age at menarche, parity, duration of breast feeding, family history of breast cancer, height, body mass index, benign breast diseases and alcohol consumption. The model developed in the training set performed well in the validation set. The discriminating accuracy of the NBCS model (area under ROC curve [AUC]=0.703, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.687-0.719) was better than the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) model (AUC=0.605, 95% CI: 0.586-0.624), Gail model for White population (AUC=0.551, 95% CI: 0.531-0.571), and Gail model for Black population (AUC=0.545, 95% CI: 0.525-0.565). Compared to the BWHS, two Gail models, the net reclassification improvement of the NBCS model were 8.26%, 13.45% and 14.19%, respectively. We have developed a breast cancer risk prediction model specific to women in Nigeria, which provides a promising and indispensable tool to identify women in need of breast cancer early detection in SSA populations. Our model is the first breast cancer risk prediction model in Africa. It can be used to identify women at high-risk for breast cancer screening. Copyright ©2018, American Association for Cancer Research.

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2015-10-01

New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Risk prediction model for colorectal cancer: National Health Insurance Corporation study, Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Aesun; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Bak, Jeongin; Park, Yunjin; Kim, Jeongseon; Oh, Jae Hwan; Nam, Byung-Ho

2014-01-01

Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer have been rapidly increasing in Korea during last few decades. Development of risk prediction models for colorectal cancer in Korean men and women is urgently needed to enhance its prevention and early detection. Gender specific five-year risk prediction models were developed for overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, distal colon cancer, colon cancer and rectal cancer. The model was developed using data from a population of 846,559 men and 479,449 women who participated in health examinations by the National Health Insurance Corporation. Examinees were 30-80 years old and free of cancer in the baseline years of 1996 and 1997. An independent population of 547,874 men and 415,875 women who participated in 1998 and 1999 examinations was used to validate the model. Model validation was done by evaluating its performance in terms of discrimination and calibration ability using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow-type chi-square statistics. Age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, family history of cancer, and alcohol consumption were included in all models for men, whereas age, height, and meat intake frequency were included in all models for women. Models showed moderately good discrimination ability with C-statistics between 0.69 and 0.78. The C-statistics were generally higher in the models for men, whereas the calibration abilities were generally better in the models for women. Colorectal cancer risk prediction models were developed from large-scale, population-based data. Those models can be used for identifying high risk groups and developing preventive intervention strategies for colorectal cancer.

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

2016-01-01

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

Risk prediction model for colorectal cancer: National Health Insurance Corporation study, Korea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aesun Shin

Full Text Available PURPOSE: Incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer have been rapidly increasing in Korea during last few decades. Development of risk prediction models for colorectal cancer in Korean men and women is urgently needed to enhance its prevention and early detection. METHODS: Gender specific five-year risk prediction models were developed for overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, distal colon cancer, colon cancer and rectal cancer. The model was developed using data from a population of 846,559 men and 479,449 women who participated in health examinations by the National Health Insurance Corporation. Examinees were 30-80 years old and free of cancer in the baseline years of 1996 and 1997. An independent population of 547,874 men and 415,875 women who participated in 1998 and 1999 examinations was used to validate the model. Model validation was done by evaluating its performance in terms of discrimination and calibration ability using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow-type chi-square statistics. RESULTS: Age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, family history of cancer, and alcohol consumption were included in all models for men, whereas age, height, and meat intake frequency were included in all models for women. Models showed moderately good discrimination ability with C-statistics between 0.69 and 0.78. The C-statistics were generally higher in the models for men, whereas the calibration abilities were generally better in the models for women. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer risk prediction models were developed from large-scale, population-based data. Those models can be used for identifying high risk groups and developing preventive intervention strategies for colorectal cancer.

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department ' ' Radiation Protection and Health' ' , Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Zurich, Medical Physics Group, Institute of Physics, Zurich (Switzerland); Zhang, Wei [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Oxford (United Kingdom)

2016-03-15

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate Individual Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Ami; Woo, Sang Myung; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Woo Jin; Park, Sang-Jae; Nam, Byung-Ho

2016-01-01

There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

Genetic instability model for cancer risk in A-bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niwa, Ohtsura

1998-01-01

This review was written rather against Mendelsohn's reductionist model for cancer risk in A-bomb survivors in following chapters. Assumptions for carcinogenic process: mutation of a cell to the cancer cell and its proliferation. Multi-step theory for carcinogenesis and age of crisis: induction of cancer by accumulation of cancer-related gene mutations which being linear to time (age). Effect of exogenous hit in the multi-step theory: radiation as an exogenous hit to damage DNA. Dose-effect relationship for cancer risk in the survivors and the problem for the latent period: for solid tumors, dose-effect relationship is linear and shortening of the latent period is not observed. Considerations on cancer data in adulthood exposure/Indirect effect model in radiation carcinogenesis: solid cancer data supporting the indirect effect model. Possible mechanism for radiation-induced long-term increase of natural mutation frequency: genetic instability remaining in the irradiated cells which being a basis of the indirect effect model. Notes for considerations of carcinogenicity in exposed people/Difference in carcinogenic mechanisms due to age. The author concluded that the radiation-induced carcinogenesis is deeply related with the natural carcinogenesis and particularly for solid cancers, it can not be explained by the classic reductionist model. (K.H.)

Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin Ten Haaf

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Selection of candidates for lung cancer screening based on individual risk has been proposed as an alternative to criteria based on age and cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years. Nine previously established risk models were assessed for their ability to identify those most likely to develop or die from lung cancer. All models considered age and various aspects of smoking exposure (smoking status, smoking duration, cigarettes per day, pack-years smoked, time since smoking cessation as risk predictors. In addition, some models considered factors such as gender, race, ethnicity, education, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema, personal history of cancer, personal history of pneumonia, and family history of lung cancer.Retrospective analyses were performed on 53,452 National Lung Screening Trial (NLST participants (1,925 lung cancer cases and 884 lung cancer deaths and 80,672 Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO ever-smoking participants (1,463 lung cancer cases and 915 lung cancer deaths. Six-year lung cancer incidence and mortality risk predictions were assessed for (1 calibration (graphically by comparing the agreement between the predicted and the observed risks, (2 discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] between individuals with and without lung cancer (death, and (3 clinical usefulness (net benefit in decision curve analysis by identifying risk thresholds at which applying risk-based eligibility would improve lung cancer screening efficacy. To further assess performance, risk model sensitivities and specificities in the PLCO were compared to those based on the NLST eligibility criteria. Calibration was satisfactory, but discrimination ranged widely (AUCs from 0.61 to 0.81. The models outperformed the NLST eligibility criteria over a substantial range of risk thresholds in decision curve analysis, with a higher sensitivity for all models and a

The use of biologically based cancer risk models in radiation epidemiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewski, D.; Zielinski, J.M.; Hazelton, W.D.; Garner, M.J.; Moolgavkar, S.H.

2003-01-01

Biologically based risk projection models for radiation carcinogenesis seek to describe the fundamental biological processes involved in neoplastic transformation of somatic cells into malignant cancer cells. A validated biologically based model, whose parameters have a direct biological interpretation, can also be used to extrapolate cancer risks to different exposure conditions with some confidence. In this article, biologically based models for radiation carcinogenesis, including the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model and its extensions, are reviewed. The biological and mathematical bases for such models are described, and the implications of key model parameters for cancer risk assessment examined. Specific applications of versions of the TSCE model to important epidemiologic datasets are discussed, including the Colorado uranium miners' cohort; a cohort of Chinese tin miners; the lifespan cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki; and a cohort of over 200,000 workers included in the National Dose Registry (NDR) of Canada. (author)

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

Science.gov (United States)

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

Risks of cancer - All sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

This chapter describes the BEIR Committee's radiation risk models and the total risks of cancer following whole body exposure. This report focuses on the data from A-bomb survivors since this cohort contains persons of all ages at exposure. Because of large statistical uncertainties, it was not possible for the committee to provide risk estimates for cancers at all specific sites of interest. Estimates were made for risk of leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, and cancers of the respiratory and digestive systems. To obtain an estimate of the total risk of mortality from all cancers, the committee also modeled cancers other than those listed above as a group

Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David G. Hoel, PhD

2012-04-19

The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2017-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0529 TITLE: A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...AND SUBTITLE A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1...STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in

Development and prospective validation of a model estimating risk of readmission in cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Carl R; Hefner, Jennifer; McAlearney, Ann S; Graham, Lisa; Johnson, Kristen; Moffatt-Bruce, Susan; Huerta, Timothy; Pawlik, Timothy M; White, Susan

2018-02-26

Hospital readmissions among cancer patients are common. While several models estimating readmission risk exist, models specific for cancer patients are lacking. A logistic regression model estimating risk of unplanned 30-day readmission was developed using inpatient admission data from a 2-year period (n = 18 782) at a tertiary cancer hospital. Readmission risk estimates derived from the model were then calculated prospectively over a 10-month period (n = 8616 admissions) and compared with actual incidence of readmission. There were 2478 (13.2%) unplanned readmissions. Model factors associated with readmission included: emergency department visit within 30 days, >1 admission within 60 days, non-surgical admission, solid malignancy, gastrointestinal cancer, emergency admission, length of stay >5 days, abnormal sodium, hemoglobin, or white blood cell count. The c-statistic for the model was 0.70. During the 10-month prospective evaluation, estimates of readmission from the model were associated with higher actual readmission incidence from 20.7% for the highest risk category to 9.6% for the lowest. An unplanned readmission risk model developed specifically for cancer patients performs well when validated prospectively. The specificity of the model for cancer patients, EMR incorporation, and prospective validation justify use of the model in future studies designed to reduce and prevent readmissions. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

2014-07-01

International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment. © 2014 by The Author(s).

Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

2005-10-01

The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

1988-03-01

This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Petito, Lucia C; Cheung, Li C; Jacobs, Eric; Jemal, Ahmedin; Berg, Christine D; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2018-05-15

Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown. To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts. Population-based prospective studies. United States. Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort. Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the

Forecasting Model of Risk of Cancer in Lung Cancer Pedigree in a Case-control Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huan LIN

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Background and objective Annual lung screening using spiral computed tomography (CT, has a high sensitivity of detecting early lung cancer (LC, but its high rates of false-positive often lead to unnecessary surgery. The aim of this study is to create a forecasting model of high risk individuals to lung cancer. Methods The pathologic diagnoses of LC in Guangdong Lung Cancer Institute were consecutively chosen as the probands. All the members of the first-degree relatives of probands' and their spouses' were enrolled in this study. These pedigrees consisted of 633 probands' pedigrees and 565 spouses' pedigrees. Unless otherwise stated, analyses were performed using the SPSS 17.0 statistical software package. Results Compared with the control, a family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with LC risk (OR=1.71, P<0.001, the sub-group of either one infected individual or more than two infected individuals in first-degree relatives showed significantly statistical differences (P=0.005, P=0.002. In the forecasting model, the risk compared to that in Chinese population was from 0.38 to 63.08 folds. In the population whose risk was more than 10 times to the Chinese population, the accuracy rate of prediction was 88.1%. Conclusion A family history of carcinoma in first-degree relatives was significantly associated with increased LC risk. The more infected individuals exist in first-degree relatives, the more risk was showed. In the forecasting model, smokers especially heavy ones whose risk were more than 10 times to the Chinese population should be receive annual screening. The population are positive at least any two conditions which including male, lung disease history, occupation expose and history of cancer in first-degree relative.

Estimating radiation-induced cancer risk using MVK two-stage model for carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Aoki, Y.

1993-01-01

Based on the carcinogenesis model as proposed by Moolgavkar et al., time-dependent relative risk models were derived for projecting the time variation in excess relative risk. If it is assumed that each process is described by time-independent linear dose-response relationship, the time variation in excess relative risk is influenced by the parameter related with the promotion process. The risk model based carcinogenesis theory would play a marked role in estimating radiation-induced cancer risk in constructing a projection model or transfer model

Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Estimates Based on the Gail Model and Its Predictors in Qatari Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Bener, Abdulbari; Çatan, Funda; El Ayoubi, Hanadi R; Acar, Ahmet; Ibrahim, Wanis H

2017-07-01

The Gail model is the most widely used breast cancer risk assessment tool. An accurate assessment of individual's breast cancer risk is very important for prevention of the disease and for the health care providers to make decision on taking chemoprevention for high-risk women in clinical practice in Qatar. To assess the breast cancer risk among Arab women population in Qatar using the Gail model and provide a global comparison of risk assessment. In this cross-sectional study of 1488 women (aged 35 years and older), we used the Gail Risk Assessment Tool to assess the risk of developing breast cancer. Sociodemographic features such as age, lifestyle habits, body mass index, breast-feeding duration, consanguinity among parents, and family history of breast cancer were considered as possible risks. The mean age of the study population was 47.8 ± 10.8 years. Qatari women and Arab women constituted 64.7% and 35.3% of the study population, respectively. The mean 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risks were 1.12 ± 0.52 and 10.57 ± 3.1, respectively. Consanguineous marriage among parents was seen in 30.6% of participants. We found a relationship between the 5-year and lifetime risks of breast cancer and variables such as age, age at menarche, gravidity, parity, body mass index, family history of cancer, menopause age, occupation, and level of education. The linear regression analysis identified the predictors for breast cancer in women such as age, age at menarche, age of first birth, family history and age of menopausal were considered the strong predictors and significant contributing risk factors for breast cancer after adjusting for ethnicity, parity and other variables. The current study is the first to evaluate the performance of the Gail model for Arab women population in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Gail model is an appropriate breast cancer risk assessment tool for female population in Qatar.

Cancer risk as a radiation detriment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Servomaa, A.; Komppa, T.; Servomaa, K.

1992-11-01

Potential radiation detriment means a risk of cancer or other somatic disease, genetic damage of fetal injury. Quantative information about the relation between a radiation dose and cancer risk is needed to enable decision-making in radiation protection. However, assessment of cancer risk by means of the radiation dose is controversial, as epidemiological and biological information about factors affecting the origin of cancers show that risk assessment is imprecise when the radiation dose is used as the only factor. Focusing on radiation risk estimates for breast cancer, lung cancer and leukemia, the report is based on the models given in the Beir V report, on sources of radiation exposure and the uncertainty of risk estimates. Risk estimates are assessed using the relative risk model and the cancer mortality rates in Finland. Cancer incidence and mortality rates for men and women are shown in graphs as a function of age and time. Relative risks are shown as a function of time after exposure and lifetime risks as a function of age at exposure. Uncertainty factors affecting the radiation risk are examined from the point of view of epidemiology and molecular biology. (orig.)

Risk Estimation for Lung Cancer in Libya: Analysis Based on Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-Gamma Model, BYM Model and Mixture Model

Science.gov (United States)

Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

2017-03-01

Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. Creative Commons Attribution License

Which risk models perform best in selecting ever-smokers for lung cancer screening?

Science.gov (United States)

A new analysis by scientists at NCI evaluates nine different individualized lung cancer risk prediction models based on their selections of ever-smokers for computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening.

Retrospective look at Rn-induced lung cancer mortality from the viewpoint of a relative risk model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puskin, J.S.; Yang, Y.

1988-01-01

The potential contribution to U.S. lung cancer deaths from 1930 to 1987 from indoor 222 Rn exposures is investigated from the standpoint of a constant relative risk model. Based on this model, which assumes a Rn risk proportional to the baseline lung cancer risk from other causes, the rate of Rn-induced lung cancer mortality has been increasing sharply since 1930. However, the estimated proportion of lung cancer deaths attributable to Rn has remained fairly constant. Applying the range of coefficients the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency employs in assessing the risk from indoor Rn, it is estimated that 8-25% of all current lung cancer deaths are attributable to past Rn exposures. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are discussed

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

2014-10-01

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

Risk factors for breast cancer in the breast cancer risk model study of Guam and Saipan.

Science.gov (United States)

Leon Guerrero, Rachael T; Novotny, Rachel; Wilkens, Lynne R; Chong, Marie; White, Kami K; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Buyum, Arielle; Badowski, Grazyna; Blas-Laguaña, Michelle

2017-10-01

Chamorro Pacific Islanders in the Mariana Islands have breast cancer incidence rates similar to, but mortality rates higher than, those of U.S. women. As breast cancer risk factors of women of the Mariana Islands may be unique because of ethnic and cultural differences, we studied established and suspected risk factors for breast cancer in this unstudied population. From 2010-2013, we conducted retrospective case-control study of female breast cancer (104 cases and 185 controls) among women in the Mariana Islands. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each of various lifestyle-related factors from logistic regression of breast cancer, in all women and in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. Tests for interaction of risk factors with ethnicity were based on the Wald statistics for cross-product terms. Of the medical and reproductive factors considered - age at menarche, breastfeeding, number of live births, age at first live birth, hormone use, and menopause - only age at first live birth was confirmed. Age at first live birth, among parous women, was higher among cases (mean 24.9 years) than controls (mean 23.2 years); with increased breast cancer risk (OR=2.53; 95% CI, 1.04-6.19 for age≥30y compared to risk and only in Filipino women. The association with many other established risk factors, such as BMI, hormone use and physical activity, were in the expected direction but were not significant. Associations for family history of breast cancer and alcohol intake were not evident CONCLUSIONS: The results provide a basis for cancer prevention guidance for women in the Mariana Islands. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng

2014-01-01

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

A systematic review of breast cancer incidence risk prediction models with meta-analysis of their performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Meads, Catherine; Ahmed, Ikhlaaq; Riley, Richard D

2012-04-01

A risk prediction model is a statistical tool for estimating the probability that a currently healthy individual with specific risk factors will develop a condition in the future such as breast cancer. Reliably accurate prediction models can inform future disease burdens, health policies and individual decisions. Breast cancer prediction models containing modifiable risk factors, such as alcohol consumption, BMI or weight, condom use, exogenous hormone use and physical activity, are of particular interest to women who might be considering how to reduce their risk of breast cancer and clinicians developing health policies to reduce population incidence rates. We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate the performance of prediction models for breast cancer that contain modifiable factors. A protocol was developed and a sensitive search in databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted in June 2010. Extensive use was made of reference lists. Included were any articles proposing or validating a breast cancer prediction model in a general female population, with no language restrictions. Duplicate data extraction and quality assessment were conducted. Results were summarised qualitatively, and where possible meta-analysis of model performance statistics was undertaken. The systematic review found 17 breast cancer models, each containing a different but often overlapping set of modifiable and other risk factors, combined with an estimated baseline risk that was also often different. Quality of reporting was generally poor, with characteristics of included participants and fitted model results often missing. Only four models received independent validation in external data, most notably the 'Gail 2' model with 12 validations. None of the models demonstrated consistently outstanding ability to accurately discriminate between those who did and those who did not develop breast cancer. For example, random-effects meta-analyses of the performance of the

Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

Model Checking of a Diabetes-Cancer Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Haijun; Zuliani, Paolo; Clarke, Edmund M.

2011-06-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that cancer incidence might be associated with diabetes mellitus, especially Type II diabetes which is characterized by hyperinsulinaemia, hyperglycaemia, obesity, and overexpression of multiple WNT pathway components. These diabetes risk factors can activate a number of signaling pathways that are important in the development of different cancers. To systematically understand the signaling components that link diabetes and cancer risk, we have constructed a single-cell, Boolean network model by integrating the signaling pathways that are influenced by these risk factors to study insulin resistance, cancer cell proliferation and apoptosis. Then, we introduce and apply the Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV), a formal verification tool, to qualitatively study some temporal logic properties of our diabetes-cancer model. The verification results show that the diabetes risk factors might not increase cancer risk in normal cells, but they will promote cell proliferation if the cell is in a precancerous or cancerous stage characterized by losses of the tumor-suppressor proteins ARF and INK4a.

A multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based risk model to determine the risk of significant prostate cancer prior to biopsy.

Science.gov (United States)

van Leeuwen, Pim J; Hayen, Andrew; Thompson, James E; Moses, Daniel; Shnier, Ron; Böhm, Maret; Abuodha, Magdaline; Haynes, Anne-Maree; Ting, Francis; Barentsz, Jelle; Roobol, Monique; Vass, Justin; Rasiah, Krishan; Delprado, Warick; Stricker, Phillip D

2017-12-01

To develop and externally validate a predictive model for detection of significant prostate cancer. Development of the model was based on a prospective cohort including 393 men who underwent multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) before biopsy. External validity of the model was then examined retrospectively in 198 men from a separate institution whom underwent mpMRI followed by biopsy for abnormal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level or digital rectal examination (DRE). A model was developed with age, PSA level, DRE, prostate volume, previous biopsy, and Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PIRADS) score, as predictors for significant prostate cancer (Gleason 7 with >5% grade 4, ≥20% cores positive or ≥7 mm of cancer in any core). Probability was studied via logistic regression. Discriminatory performance was quantified by concordance statistics and internally validated with bootstrap resampling. In all, 393 men had complete data and 149 (37.9%) had significant prostate cancer. While the variable model had good accuracy in predicting significant prostate cancer, area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80, the advanced model (incorporating mpMRI) had a significantly higher AUC of 0.88 (P prostate cancer. Individualised risk assessment of significant prostate cancer using a predictive model that incorporates mpMRI PIRADS score and clinical data allows a considerable reduction in unnecessary biopsies and reduction of the risk of over-detection of insignificant prostate cancer at the cost of a very small increase in the number of significant cancers missed. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Walsh, Seán

2013-03-01

Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes.

Predictive accuracy of the PanCan lung cancer risk prediction model - external validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler Wille, Mathilde M.; Dirksen, Asger; Riel, Sarah J. van; Jacobs, Colin; Scholten, Ernst T.; Ginneken, Bram van; Saghir, Zaigham; Pedersen, Jesper Holst; Hohwue Thomsen, Laura; Skovgaard, Lene T.

2015-01-01

Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models. From the DLCST database, 1,152 nodules from 718 participants were included. Parsimonious and full PanCan risk prediction models were applied to DLCST data, and also coefficients of the model were recalculated using DLCST data. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate risk discrimination. AUCs of 0.826-0.870 were found for DLCST data based on PanCan risk prediction models. In the DLCST, age and family history were significant predictors (p = 0.001 and p = 0.013). Female sex was not confirmed to be associated with higher risk of lung cancer; in fact opposing effects of sex were observed in the two cohorts. Thus, female sex appeared to lower the risk (p = 0.047 and p = 0.040) in the DLCST. High risk discrimination was validated in the DLCST cohort, mainly determined by nodule size. Age and family history of lung cancer were significant predictors and could be included in the parsimonious model. Sex appears to be a less useful predictor. (orig.)

Predictive accuracy of the PanCan lung cancer risk prediction model - external validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler Wille, Mathilde M.; Dirksen, Asger [Gentofte Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hellerup (Denmark); Riel, Sarah J. van; Jacobs, Colin; Scholten, Ernst T.; Ginneken, Bram van [Radboud University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Saghir, Zaigham [Herlev Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Herlev (Denmark); Pedersen, Jesper Holst [Copenhagen University Hospital, Department of Thoracic Surgery, Rigshospitalet, Koebenhavn Oe (Denmark); Hohwue Thomsen, Laura [Hvidovre Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Hvidovre (Denmark); Skovgaard, Lene T. [University of Copenhagen, Department of Biostatistics, Koebenhavn Oe (Denmark)

2015-10-15

Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models. From the DLCST database, 1,152 nodules from 718 participants were included. Parsimonious and full PanCan risk prediction models were applied to DLCST data, and also coefficients of the model were recalculated using DLCST data. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate risk discrimination. AUCs of 0.826-0.870 were found for DLCST data based on PanCan risk prediction models. In the DLCST, age and family history were significant predictors (p = 0.001 and p = 0.013). Female sex was not confirmed to be associated with higher risk of lung cancer; in fact opposing effects of sex were observed in the two cohorts. Thus, female sex appeared to lower the risk (p = 0.047 and p = 0.040) in the DLCST. High risk discrimination was validated in the DLCST cohort, mainly determined by nodule size. Age and family history of lung cancer were significant predictors and could be included in the parsimonious model. Sex appears to be a less useful predictor. (orig.)

Carcinogenesis model analysis for breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors and the implications for cancer risk estimate for radiological protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

2000-01-01

Breast cancer incidence is the highest risk due to radiation among atomic bomb survivors. The excess relative risk of the early-onset breast cancer seems to be remarkably high for the youngest age-at-exposure groups. The cancer risk estimate of breast cancer is a current issue in radiological protection. We used a two-stage stochastic model for carcinogenesis to analyze the breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors (Kai, et al. Radiat. Res. 1997). Our purpose is to examine the dependence of radiation risk on age at exposure using the two-stage model and how to transfer it to other populations for radiological protection. We fitted the model assuming that radiation acts as an initiator and that the rate of radiation-induced mutation and background initiation mutation leading to baseline cancer are additive. We took two age-dependence, not attained age but age at exposure, of the spontaneous process into account. First, age-dependence of spontaneous initiation was expressed by a linear model. We also modeled the age-dependence of spontaneous net growth rate of initiated cells by a linear function. As far as radiation-induced initiation is concerned, we took a stepwise function other than a liner function into account. The analysis did not show that the radiation mutation for the youngest age-at-exposure groups below age 10 was higher than for the older groups. Furthermore, the incidence of female breast cancer in Japan is increasing and the birth cohort effect can be observed in atomic bomb survivors. Our model assumed that an acute exposure to atomic radiation can only initiate cancers and do not influence other stages of carcinogenesis, whereas spontaneous initiation and promotion are age-dependent to consider birth cohort effects. When these cohort effects are properly accounted for, the shape of the age-specific incidence curve in Japan is remarkably similar to the age-specific incidence in western populations (shown in figure). Recently Little and

Low Dose Radiation Cancer Risks: Epidemiological and Toxicological Models. Final Technical Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoel, David G.

2012-01-01

The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion model (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE model serves a general purpose of acute exposure models but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the risks of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer risk assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE model with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer risks. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE model were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

Science.gov (United States)

Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

2016-01-01

Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, prisk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winkler Wille, Mathilde M.; van Riel, Sarah J.; Saghir, Zaigham

2015-01-01

Objectives: Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models. Methods: From...... the DLCST database, 1,152 nodules from 718 participants were included. Parsimonious and full PanCan risk prediction models were applied to DLCST data, and also coefficients of the model were recalculated using DLCST data. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were...... used to evaluate risk discrimination. Results: AUCs of 0.826–0.870 were found for DLCST data based on PanCan risk prediction models. In the DLCST, age and family history were significant predictors (p = 0.001 and p = 0.013). Female sex was not confirmed to be associated with higher risk of lung cancer...

External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

2016-04-01

To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Risk of second primary cancer following differentiated thyroid cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthe, Emmanuelle; Berthet, Pascaline; Bardet, Stephane; Henry-Amar, Michel; Michels, Jean-Jacques; Rame, Jean-Pierre; Babin, Emmanuel; Icard, Philippe; Samama, Guy; Galateau-Salle, Francoise; Mahoudeau, Jacques

2004-01-01

Concerns remain over the risk of cancer following differentiated thyroid carcinoma and its causes. Iodine-131 ( 131 I) and external irradiation are known to have potential carcinogenic effects. Thyroid carcinoma is a polygenic disease which may be associated with other malignancies. We investigated the incidence of second cancer and its aetiology in a cohort of 875 patients (146 men, 729 women) with differentiated thyroid carcinoma originating from Basse-Normandie, France. Cancer incidence was compared with that of the general population of the Departement du Calvados matched for age, gender and period. The cumulative proportion of second cancer was estimated using the life-table method. Factors that correlated with the risk of second cancer were studied using the Cox model. After a median follow-up of 8 years, 58 second cancers had been observed. Compared with general population incidence rates, there was an overall increased risk of second cancer in women [standardised incidence ratio (SIR)=1.52; P 0.20). Increased risk related to cancers of the genitourinary tract (SIR=3.31; P 131 I was related to the risk. These data confirm that women with differentiated thyroid carcinoma are at risk of developing a second cancer of the genitourinary tract and kidney. Only age and medical history of primary cancer before thyroid carcinoma are risk factors for second cancer. Common environmental or genetic factors as well as long-term carcinogenic effects of primary cancer therapy should be considered. (orig.)

Reducing cancer risk in rural communities through supermarket interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

McCool, Barent N; Lyford, Conrad P; Hensarling, Natalie; Pence, Barbara; McCool, Audrey C; Thapa, Janani; Belasco, Eric; Carter, Tyra M

2013-09-01

Cancer risk is high, and prevention efforts are often minimal in rural communities. Feasible means of encouraging lifestyles that will reduce cancer risk for residents of rural communities are needed. This project developed and tested a model that could be feasibly adopted by rural communities to reduce cancer risk. This model focuses on incorporating multi-faceted cancer risk education in the local supermarket. As the supermarket functions both as the primary food source and an information source in small rural communities, the supermarket focus encourages the development of a community environment supportive of lifestyles that should reduce residents' risk for cancer. The actions taken to implement the model and the challenges that communities would have in implementing the model are identified.

Extensions of the Rosner-Colditz breast cancer prediction model to include older women and type-specific predicted risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Robert J; Colditz, Graham A; Tamimi, Rulla M; Chen, Wendy Y; Hankinson, Susan E; Willett, Walter W; Rosner, Bernard

2017-08-01

A breast cancer risk prediction rule previously developed by Rosner and Colditz has reasonable predictive ability. We developed a re-fitted version of this model, based on more than twice as many cases now including women up to age 85, and further extended it to a model that distinguished risk factor prediction of tumors with different estrogen/progesterone receptor status. We compared the calibration and discriminatory ability of the original, the re-fitted, and the type-specific models. Evaluation used data from the Nurses' Health Study during the period 1980-2008, when 4384 incident invasive breast cancers occurred over 1.5 million person-years. Model development used two-thirds of study subjects and validation used one-third. Predicted risks in the validation sample from the original and re-fitted models were highly correlated (ρ = 0.93), but several parameters, notably those related to use of menopausal hormone therapy and age, had different estimates. The re-fitted model was well-calibrated and had an overall C-statistic of 0.65. The extended, type-specific model identified several risk factors with varying associations with occurrence of tumors of different receptor status. However, this extended model relative to the prediction of any breast cancer did not meaningfully reclassify women who developed breast cancer to higher risk categories, nor women remaining cancer free to lower risk categories. The re-fitted Rosner-Colditz model has applicability to risk prediction in women up to age 85, and its discrimination is not improved by consideration of varying associations across tumor subtypes.

Development of a risk prediction model for lung cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Shimazu, Taichi; Budhathoki, Sanjeev; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2018-03-01

Although the impact of tobacco consumption on the occurrence of lung cancer is well-established, risk estimation could be improved by risk prediction models that consider various smoking habits, such as quantity, duration, and time since quitting. We constructed a risk prediction model using a population of 59 161 individuals from the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC) Study Cohort II. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact of age, gender, and smoking-related factors (cumulative smoking intensity measured in pack-years, age at initiation, and time since cessation). Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates were calculated with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes. Finally, the model was externally validated using 47 501 individuals from JPHC Study Cohort I. A total of 1210 cases of lung cancer occurred during 986 408 person-years of follow-up. We found a dose-dependent effect of tobacco consumption with hazard ratios for current smokers ranging from 3.78 (2.00-7.16) for cumulative consumption ≤15 pack-years to 15.80 (9.67-25.79) for >75 pack-years. Risk decreased with time since cessation. Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates ranged from 0.04% to 11.14% in men and 0.07% to 6.55% in women. The model showed good predictive performance regarding discrimination (cross-validated c-index = 0.793) and calibration (cross-validated χ 2 = 6.60; P-value = .58). The model still showed good discrimination in the external validation population (c-index = 0.772). In conclusion, we developed a prediction model to estimate the probability of developing lung cancer based on age, gender, and tobacco consumption. This model appears useful in encouraging high-risk individuals to quit smoking and undergo increased surveillance. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Review of radon and lung cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samet, J.M.; Hornung, R.W.

1990-01-01

Radon, a long-established cause of lung cancer in uranium and other underground miners, has recently emerged as a potentially important cause of lung cancer in the general population. The evidence for widespread exposure of the population to radon and the well-documented excess of lung cancer among underground miners exposed to radon decay products have raised concern that exposure to radon progeny might also be a cause of lung cancer in the general population. To date, epidemiological data on the lung cancer risk associated with environmental exposure to radon have been limited. Consequently, the lung cancer hazard posed by radon exposure in indoor air has been addressed primarily through risk estimation procedures. The quantitative risks of lung cancer have been estimated using exposure-response relations derived from the epidemiological investigations of uranium and other underground miners. We review five of the more informative studies of miners and recent risk projection models for excess lung cancer associated with radon. The principal models differ substantially in their underlying assumptions and consequently in the resulting risk projections. The resulting diversity illustrates the substantial uncertainty that remains concerning the most appropriate model of the temporal pattern of radon-related lung cancer. Animal experiments, further follow-up of the miner cohorts, and well-designed epidemiological studies of indoor exposure should reduce this uncertainty. 18 references

Risk of cancer formation by radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuji, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

Described are the difference between exposures to radiation for medical purpose and to environmental radiation at low dose, estimation of carcinogenic risk by medical radiation, and notice for referring the risk at clinical practice. ICRP employs linear non-threshold (LNT) model for risk of cancer formation even at <200 mSv for safety, with a recognition that it is scientifically obscure. The model essentially stands on data of A-bomb survivors (the Gold Standard), where the relationship between 5-10% excess relative risk (ERR) of cancer formation and dose 0.05-2.5 Sv is linear. Analyses of the secondary carcinogenesis after radiotherapy have begun to be reported since around 2005: e.g., the secondary thyroid cancer risk in pediatric patients treated with radiotherapy has a peak at 20 Gy, suggesting the actual risk depends both on the linearity of carcinogenic increase and on the exponential probability of cell death increase. On this concept, the risk of cancer formation is not always linear to dose. At the practical radiotherapy, its secondary carcinogenic risk should be estimated not only on the dose but also on other factors such as the individual organ, patient's age and attainable age/time after the treatment. In treated teen-ager patients, ERRs of mortality/Gy are 2.28 for cancers of the skin of non-malignant melanoma, 1.32 of bladder and 1.21 of thyroid and in patients of fifties, 1.15 of bladder and lung. The EER tends to become lower as the treated age is older. Pediatric cancer patients to be treated with radiotherapy should be informed about the secondary cancer that the low dose risk given by ICRP is not always appropriate, a certain cancer risk has a peak dose, and ERR of cancer mortality is not a cancer risk of an organ. Many factors like anticancers and immuno-modifiers, modify the outcome of radiotherapy and should be carefully speculated for evaluating the outcome. (T.T.)

A New Model for the Estimation of Breast Cancer Risk

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Giger, Maryellen Lissak

2001-01-01

... for use in estimating risk of breast cancer. The specific aims include 1. Creating a database of mammograms, along with tabulated clinical information of women at low risk and high risk for breast cancer; 2...

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Population-Attributable Risk Proportion of Clinical Risk Factors for Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Engmann, Natalie J; Golmakani, Marzieh K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Sprague, Brian L; Kerlikowske, Karla

2017-09-01

Many established breast cancer risk factors are used in clinical risk prediction models, although the proportion of breast cancers explained by these factors is unknown. To determine the population-attributable risk proportion (PARP) for breast cancer associated with clinical breast cancer risk factors among premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Case-control study with 1:10 matching on age, year of risk factor assessment, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registry. Risk factor data were collected prospectively from January 1, 1996, through October 31, 2012, from BCSC community-based breast imaging facilities. A total of 18 437 women with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ were enrolled as cases and matched to 184 309 women without breast cancer, with a total of 58 146 premenopausal and 144 600 postmenopausal women enrolled in the study. Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density (heterogeneously or extremely dense vs scattered fibroglandular densities), first-degree family history of breast cancer, body mass index (>25 vs 18.5-25), history of benign breast biopsy, and nulliparity or age at first birth (≥30 years vs breast cancer. Of the 18 437 women with breast cancer, the mean (SD) age was 46.3 (3.7) years among premenopausal women and 61.7 (7.2) years among the postmenopausal women. Overall, 4747 (89.8%) premenopausal and 12 502 (95.1%) postmenopausal women with breast cancer had at least 1 breast cancer risk factor. The combined PARP of all risk factors was 52.7% (95% CI, 49.1%-56.3%) among premenopausal women and 54.7% (95% CI, 46.5%-54.7%) among postmenopausal women. Breast density was the most prevalent risk factor for both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and had the largest effect on the PARP; 39.3% (95% CI, 36.6%-42.0%) of premenopausal and 26.2% (95% CI, 24.4%-28.0%) of postmenopausal breast cancers could potentially be averted if all women with heterogeneously or extremely dense

Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

2016-01-01

Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

2009-01-01

Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

Cognitive and affective influences on perceived risk of ovarian cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Peipins, Lucy A; McCarty, Frances; Hawkins, Nikki A; Rodriguez, Juan L; Scholl, Lawrence E; Leadbetter, Steven

2015-03-01

Studies suggest that both affective and cognitive processes are involved in the perception of vulnerability to cancer and that affect has an early influence in this assessment of risk. We constructed a path model based on a conceptual framework of heuristic reasoning (affect, resemblance, and availability) coupled with cognitive processes involved in developing personal models of cancer causation. From an eligible cohort of 16 700 women in a managed care organization, we randomly selected 2524 women at high, elevated, and average risk of ovarian cancer and administered a questionnaire to test our model (response rate 76.3%). Path analysis delineated the relationships between personal and cognitive characteristics (number of relatives with cancer, age, ideas about cancer causation, perceived resemblance to an affected friend or relative, and ovarian cancer knowledge) and emotional constructs (closeness to an affected relative or friend, time spent processing the cancer experience, and cancer worry) on perceived risk of ovarian cancer. Our final model fit the data well (root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.028, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.99, normed fit index (NFI) = 0.98). This final model (1) demonstrated the nature and direction of relationships between cognitive characteristics and perceived risk; (2) showed that time spent processing the cancer experience was associated with cancer worry; and (3) showed that cancer worry moderately influenced perceived risk. Our results highlight the important role that family cancer experience has on cancer worry and shows how cancer experience translates into personal risk perceptions. This understanding informs the discordance between medical or objective risk assessment and personal risk assessment. Published in 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published in 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. ten Haaf (Kevin); J. Jeon (Jihyoun); M.C. Tammemagi (Martin); S.S. Han (Summer); C.Y. Kong (Chung Yin); S.K. Plevritis (Sylvia); E. Feuer (Eric); H.J. de Koning (Harry); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout W.); R. Meza (Rafael)

2017-01-01

textabstractBackground: Selection of candidates for lung cancer screening based on individual risk has been proposed as an alternative to criteria based on age and cumulative smoking exposure (pack-years). Nine previously established risk models were assessed for their ability to identify those most

The influence of uncertain map features on risk beliefs and perceived ambiguity for maps of modeled cancer risk from air pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Jeffrey D.

2012-01-01

Maps are often used to convey information generated by models, for example, modeled cancer risk from air pollution. The concrete nature of images, such as maps, may convey more certainty than warranted for modeled information. Three map features were selected to communicate the uncertainty of modeled cancer risk: (a) map contours appeared in or out of focus, (b) one or three colors were used, and (c) a verbal-relative or numeric risk expression was used in the legend. Study aims were to assess how these features influenced risk beliefs and the ambiguity of risk beliefs at four assigned map locations that varied by risk level. We applied an integrated conceptual framework to conduct this full factorial experiment with 32 maps that varied by the three dichotomous features and four risk levels; 826 university students participated. Data was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Unfocused contours and the verbal-relative risk expression generated more ambiguity than their counterparts. Focused contours generated stronger risk beliefs for higher risk levels and weaker beliefs for lower risk levels. Number of colors had minimal influence. The magnitude of risk level, conveyed using incrementally darker shading, had a substantial dose-response influence on the strength of risk beliefs. Personal characteristics of prior beliefs and numeracy also had substantial influences. Bottom-up and top-down information processing suggest why iconic visual features of incremental shading and contour focus had the strongest visual influences on risk beliefs and ambiguity. Variations in contour focus and risk expression show promise for fostering appropriate levels of ambiguity. PMID:22985196

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-10-01

Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M. [Joint Department of Physics, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton SM2 5PT (United Kingdom); Physics Department, Ipswich Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Ipswich IP4 5PD (United Kingdom); Department of Academic Radiotherapy, Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton SM2 5PT, United Kingdom and School of Radiotherapy, University of Milan, Milan 20122 (Italy); Department of Academic Radiotherapy, Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton SM2 5PT (United Kingdom); Centre for Vision Speech and Signal Processing, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

2012-10-15

Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that

Risk-optimized proton therapy to minimize radiogenic second cancers

Science.gov (United States)

Rechner, Laura A.; Eley, John G.; Howell, Rebecca M.; Zhang, Rui; Mirkovic, Dragan; Newhauser, Wayne D.

2015-01-01

Proton therapy confers substantially lower predicted risk of second cancer compared with photon therapy. However, no previous studies have used an algorithmic approach to optimize beam angle or fluence-modulation for proton therapy to minimize those risks. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate the feasibility of risk-optimized proton therapy and to determine the combination of beam angles and fluence weights that minimize the risk of second cancer in the bladder and rectum for a prostate cancer patient. We used 6 risk models to predict excess relative risk of second cancer. Treatment planning utilized a combination of a commercial treatment planning system and an in-house risk-optimization algorithm. When normal-tissue dose constraints were incorporated in treatment planning, the risk model that incorporated the effects of fractionation, initiation, inactivation, and repopulation selected a combination of anterior and lateral beams, which lowered the relative risk by 21% for the bladder and 30% for the rectum compared to the lateral-opposed beam arrangement. Other results were found for other risk models. PMID:25919133

Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wille, M.M.W.; Riel, S.J. van; Saghir, Z.; Dirksen, A.; Pedersen, J.H.; Jacobs, C.; Thomsen, L.H.u.; Scholten, E.T.; Skovgaard, L.T.; Ginneken, B. van

2015-01-01

Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models.From the DLCST database, 1,152

Risk of cancer in the vicinity of municipal solid waste incinerators: importance of using a flexible modelling strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goria Sarah

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We conducted an ecological study in four French administrative departments and highlighted an excess risk in cancer morbidity for residents around municipal solid waste incinerators. The aim of this paper is to show how important are advanced tools and statistical techniques to better assess weak associations between the risk of cancer and past environmental exposures. Methods The steps to evaluate the association between the risk of cancer and the exposure to incinerators, from the assessment of exposure to the definition of the confounding variables and the statistical analysis carried out are detailed and discussed. Dispersion modelling was used to assess exposure to sixteen incinerators. A geographical information system was developed to define an index of exposure at the IRIS level that is the geographical unit we considered. Population density, rural/urban status, socio-economic deprivation, exposure to air pollution from traffic and from other industries were considered as potential confounding factors and defined at the IRIS level. Generalized additive models and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate the association between the risk of cancer and the index of exposure to incinerators accounting for the confounding factors. Results Modelling to assess the exposure to municipal solid waste incinerators allowed accounting for factors known to influence the exposure (meteorological data, point source characteristics, topography. The statistical models defined allowed modelling extra-Poisson variability and also non-linear relationships between the risk of cancer and the exposure to incinerators and the confounders. Conclusion In most epidemiological studies distance is still used as a proxy for exposure. This can lead to significant exposure misclassification. Additionally, in geographical correlation studies the non-linear relationships are usually not accounted for in the statistical analysis. In studies of

A comparison of models for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellerer, A.M.; Jing Chen

1993-01-01

Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincent J Gnanapragasam

2016-08-01

new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001. Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1, a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75], and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49] (p < 0.0001. High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80] and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67] (p < 0.0001, respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77 versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71 (p < 0.0001. In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84 for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69 (p < 0.0001 for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short.A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate

Using Breast Cancer Risk Associated Polymorphisms to Identify Women for Breast Cancer Chemoprevention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elad Ziv

Full Text Available Breast cancer can be prevented with selective estrogen receptor modifiers (SERMs and aromatase inhibitors (AIs. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends that women with a 5-year breast cancer risk ≥3% consider chemoprevention for breast cancer. More than 70 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs have been associated with breast cancer. We sought to determine how to best integrate risk information from SNPs with other risk factors to risk stratify women for chemoprevention.We used the risk distribution among women ages 35-69 estimated by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC risk model. We modeled the effect of adding 70 SNPs to the BCSC model and examined how this would affect how many women are reclassified above and below the threshold for chemoprevention.We found that most of the benefit of SNP testing a population is achieved by testing a modest fraction of the population. For example, if women with a 5-year BCSC risk of >2.0% are tested (~21% of all women, ~75% of the benefit of testing all women (shifting women above or below 3% 5-year risk would be derived. If women with a 5-year risk of >1.5% are tested (~36% of all women, ~90% of the benefit of testing all women would be derived.SNP testing is effective for reclassification of women for chemoprevention, but is unlikely to reclassify women with <1.5% 5-year risk. These results can be used to implement an efficient two-step testing approach to identify high risk women who may benefit from chemoprevention.

Cancer risks from ingestion of radiostrontium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raabe, O. G.

2004-07-01

Studies have been conducted of the lifetime effects in 403 beagles of the skeletal uptake in seven logarithmically increasing dosage groups of ingested Sr-90. The Sr-90 was fed during skeletal developmental from mid-gestation to adulthood at age 540 days resulting in lifetime protracted beta radiation exposure of the skeleton and some adjacent tissues. Statistical analysis of all types of cancer deaths in the 403 exposed beagles and in 162 unexposed controls indicated that deaths caused by five types of cancer were significantly elevated by high level exposure to Sr-90; these were (1) myeloid leukemia, (2) bone sarcoma, (3) squamous cell carcinoma of periodontal origin, (4) nasal carcinoma, and (5) oral carcinoma. Dose response analysis of these radiation-induced cancer deaths showed non-linear relationships with marked thresholds. A mean lifetime skeletal absorbed dose of 22.5 +/-5.7 Gy SD (22.5 +/-5.7 Sv SD) was associated with the lowest dosage group in which any radiation induced cancer deaths were observed. Three-dimensional models of the observed dose-rate/time/response relationships were fir with maximum likelihood regression methods to describe the risks of death associated with the different types of radiation-induced cancer. The models show that a life-time virtual threshold for cancer risk occurs because the time required to induce cancer is longer at lower radiation dose rates and may exceed the natural life span. Scaling these results to predict human cancer risks from ingestion of Sr-90 shows negligible risks for people whose lifetime cumulative skeletal dose is less than 10 Sv. (Author)

Risk-optimized proton therapy to minimize radiogenic second cancers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rechner, Laura A; Eley, John G; Howell, Rebecca M

2015-01-01

Proton therapy confers substantially lower predicted risk of second cancer compared with photon therapy. However, no previous studies have used an algorithmic approach to optimize beam angle or fluence-modulation for proton therapy to minimize those risks. The objectives of this study were...... to demonstrate the feasibility of risk-optimized proton therapy and to determine the combination of beam angles and fluence weights that minimizes the risk of second cancer in the bladder and rectum for a prostate cancer patient. We used 6 risk models to predict excess relative risk of second cancer. Treatment...

Radon-induced lung cancer in smokers and non-smokers: risk implications using a two-mutation carcinogenesis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leenhouts, H.P.

1999-01-01

Three sets of data (population statistics in non-smokers, data from an investigation of the smoking habits of British doctors and a study of Colorado uranium miners) were used to analyse lung cancer in humans as a function of exposure to radon and smoking. One of the aims was to derive implications for radon risk estimates. The data were analysed using a two-mutation radiation carcinogenesis model and a stepwise determination of the model parameters. The basic model parameters for lung cancer were derived from the age dependence fit of the spontaneous lung cancer incidence in non-smokers. The effect of smoking was described by two additional parameters and, subsequently, the effect of radon by three other parameters; these five parameters define the dependence of the two mutation steps on smoking and exposure to radon. Using this approach, a consistent fit and comprehensive description of the three sets of data have been achieved, and the parameters could, at least partly, be related to cellular radiobiological data. The model results explain the different effect of radon on non-smokers and smokers as seen in epidemiological data. Although the analysis was only applied to a limited number of populations, lung cancer incidence as a result of radon exposure is estimated to be about ten times higher for people exposed at the age of about 15 than at about 50, although this effect is masked (especially for smokers) by the high lung cancer incidence from smoking. Using the model to calculate the lung cancer risks from lifetime exposure to radon, as is the case for indoor radon, higher risks were estimated than previously derived from epidemiological studies of the miners' data. The excess absolute risk per unit exposure of radon is about 1.7 times higher for smokers of 30 cigarettes per day than for non-smokers, even though, as a result of the low spontaneous tumour incidence in the non-smokers, the excess relative risk per unit exposure for the smokers is about 20 times

Sugars, sucrose and colorectal cancer risk: the Fukuoka colorectal cancer study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhenjie; Uchida, Kazuhiro; Ohnaka, Keizo; Morita, Makiko; Toyomura, Kengo; Kono, Suminori; Ueki, Takashi; Tanaka, Masao; Kakeji, Yoshihiro; Maehara, Yoshihiko; Okamura, Takeshi; Ikejiri, Koji; Futami, Kitaroh; Maekawa, Takafumi; Yasunami, Yohichi; Takenaka, Kenji; Ichimiya, Hitoshi; Terasaka, Reiji

2014-05-01

A diet high in sugars may promote colorectal carcinogenesis, but it remains uncertain whether high intake of sugars or sucrose confers increased risk of colorectal cancer. The authors investigated the associations of sugars and sucrose intake with colorectal cancer risk in a community-based case-control study in Japan. The study subjects comprised 816 incident cases of colorectal cancer and 815 community controls. Consumption frequencies and portion sizes of 148 food and beverage items were ascertained by a computer-assisted interview. The authors used the consumption of 29 food items to estimate sugars and sucrose intake. The odds ratios of colorectal cancer risk according to intake categories were obtained using a logistic regression model with adjustment for potential confounding variables. Overall, intakes of sugars and sucrose were not related to colorectal cancer risk either in men or women. The association between sugars intake and colorectal cancer risk differed by smoking status and alcohol use in men, but not in women. In men, sugars intake tended to be associated with colorectal cancer risk inversely among never-smokers and positively among male ever-smokers (interaction p=0.01). Sugars intake was associated with an increased risk among men with no alcohol consumption, but was unrelated to the risk among male alcohol drinkers (interaction p=0.02). Body mass index did not modify the association with sugars intake in either men or women. Sugars intake was associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer among smokers and non-alcohol drinkers in men selectively.

Participant selection for lung cancer screening by risk modelling (the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer [PanCan] study): a single-arm, prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tammemagi, Martin C; Schmidt, Heidi; Martel, Simon; McWilliams, Annette; Goffin, John R; Johnston, Michael R; Nicholas, Garth; Tremblay, Alain; Bhatia, Rick; Liu, Geoffrey; Soghrati, Kam; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Hwang, David M; Laberge, Francis; Gingras, Michel; Pasian, Sergio; Couture, Christian; Mayo, John R; Nasute Fauerbach, Paola V; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Peacock, Stuart J; Cressman, Sonya; Ionescu, Diana; English, John C; Finley, Richard J; Yee, John; Puksa, Serge; Stewart, Lori; Tsai, Scott; Haider, Ehsan; Boylan, Colm; Cutz, Jean-Claude; Manos, Daria; Xu, Zhaolin; Goss, Glenwood D; Seely, Jean M; Amjadi, Kayvan; Sekhon, Harmanjatinder S; Burrowes, Paul; MacEachern, Paul; Urbanski, Stefan; Sin, Don D; Tan, Wan C; Leighl, Natasha B; Shepherd, Frances A; Evans, William K; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

2017-11-01

Results from retrospective studies indicate that selecting individuals for low-dose CT lung cancer screening on the basis of a highly predictive risk model is superior to using criteria similar to those used in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; age, pack-year, and smoking quit-time). We designed the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study to assess the efficacy of a risk prediction model to select candidates for lung cancer screening, with the aim of determining whether this approach could better detect patients with early, potentially curable, lung cancer. We did this single-arm, prospective study in eight centres across Canada. We recruited participants aged 50-75 years, who had smoked at some point in their life (ever-smokers), and who did not have a self-reported history of lung cancer. Participants had at least a 2% 6-year risk of lung cancer as estimated by the PanCan model, a precursor to the validated PLCOm2012 model. Risk variables in the model were age, smoking duration, pack-years, family history of lung cancer, education level, body-mass index, chest x-ray in the past 3 years, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Individuals were screened with low-dose CT at baseline (T0), and at 1 (T1) and 4 (T4) years post-baseline. The primary outcome of the study was incidence of lung cancer. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00751660. 7059 queries came into the study coordinating centre and were screened for PanCan risk. 15 were duplicates, so 7044 participants were considered for enrolment. Between Sept 24, 2008, and Dec 17, 2010, we recruited and enrolled 2537 eligible ever-smokers. After a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 3·2-6·1), 172 lung cancers were diagnosed in 164 individuals (cumulative incidence 0·065 [95% CI 0·055-0·075], incidence rate 138·1 per 10 000 person-years [117·8-160·9]). There were ten interval lung cancers (6% of lung cancers and 6% of individuals with cancer

Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.; Yarnold, J. R.; Evans, P. M.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB. Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that

Risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soegaard, Marie; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Jensen, Allan

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of ovarian cancer in women with first-degree relatives with cancer at one of the four most frequent hereditary sites based on validated cancer diagnoses and to examine the association according to age at diagnosis of ovarian cancer and histology. DESIGN: Case......-control study. SETTING AND POPULATION: First-degree relatives of 554 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 1,564 controls were included. METHODS: Analyses were performed using multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative was significantly associated...... with increased risk of ovarian cancer (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.1 (mother or sister)). Ovarian cancer in a first-degree relative appeared to be a stronger risk factor for early-onset (cancer than late-onset (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.0-14.1 vs. OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0-3.4). The positive association...

Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R.; Cullings, H.M.

2012-01-01

Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy"-"1 (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R. [Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz-Zentrum Muenchen, German Research Centre for Environmental Health, Neuherberg (Germany); Cullings, H.M. [Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Department of Statistics, Hiroshima (Japan)

2012-03-15

Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy{sup -1} (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

2017-08-22

Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

On ionising radiation and breast cancer risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mattson, Anders

1999-05-01

A cohort of 3,090 women with clinical diagnosis of benign breast disease (BBD) was studied. Of these, 1,216 were treated with radiation therapy during 1925-54 (median age 40 years). The mean dose to the breasts was 5.8 Gy (range 0-50 Gy). Among other organs the lung received the highest scattered dose (0.75 Gy; range 0.004-8.98 Gy) and the rectum the lowest (0.008 Gy; range 0-0.06 Gy). A pooled analysis of eight breast cancer incidence cohorts was done, including: tumour registry data on breast cancer incidence among women in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors; women in Massachusetts who received repeated chest fluoroscopic during lung collapse treatment for tuberculosis; women who received x-ray therapy for acute post-partum mastitis; women who were irradiated in infancy for enlarged thymus glands ; two Swedish cohorts of women who received radiation treatments during infancy for skin hemangioma; and the BBD cohort. Together the cohorts included almost 78,000 women (-35,000 were exposed), around 1.8 million woman-years and 1500 cases. The breast cancer incidence rate as a function of breast dose was analysed using linear-quadratic Poisson regression models. Cell-killing effects and other modifying effects were incorporated through additional log-linear terms. Additive (EAR) and multiplicative (ERR) models were compared in estimating the age-at-exposure patterns and time related excess. The carcinogenic risks associated with radiation in mammographic mass screening is evaluated. Assessment was made in terms of breast cancer mortality and years of life. Effects were related to rates not influenced by a mammographic mass screening program and based on a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 40-year old women with no history of breast cancer being followed to 100 years of age. Two radiation risk assumptions were compared. The dose-response relationship is linear with little support in data for an upward curvature at low to medium doses. The competing effect

On ionising radiation and breast cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mattson, Anders

1999-01-01

A cohort of 3,090 women with clinical diagnosis of benign breast disease (BBD) was studied. Of these, 1,216 were treated with radiation therapy during 1925-54 (median age 40 years). The mean dose to the breasts was 5.8 Gy (range 0-50 Gy). Among other organs the lung received the highest scattered dose (0.75 Gy; range 0.004-8.98 Gy) and the rectum the lowest (0.008 Gy; range 0-0.06 Gy). A pooled analysis of eight breast cancer incidence cohorts was done, including: tumour registry data on breast cancer incidence among women in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors; women in Massachusetts who received repeated chest fluoroscopic during lung collapse treatment for tuberculosis; women who received x-ray therapy for acute post-partum mastitis; women who were irradiated in infancy for enlarged thymus glands ; two Swedish cohorts of women who received radiation treatments during infancy for skin hemangioma; and the BBD) cohort. Together the cohorts included almost 78,000 women (-35,000 were exposed), around 1.8 million woman-years and 1500 cases. The breast cancer incidence rate as a function of breast dose was analysed using linear-quadratic Poisson regression models. Cell-killing effects and other modifying effects were incorporated through additional log-linear terms. Additive (EAR) and multiplicative (ERR) models were compared in estimating the age-at-exposure patterns and time related excess. The carcinogenic risks associated with radiation in mammographic mass screening is evaluated. Assessment was made in terms of breast cancer mortality and years of life. Effects were related to rates not influenced by a mammographic mass screening program and based on a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 40-year old women with no history of breast cancer being followed to 100 years of age. Two radiation risk assumptions were compared. The dose-response relationship is linear with little support in data for an upward curvature at low to medium doses. The competing effect

Risk model in stage IB1-IIB cervical cancer with positive node after radical hysterectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Z

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Zhilan Chen,1,2,* Kecheng Huang,1,* Zhiyong Lu,1,3 Song Deng,1,4 Jiaqiang Xiong,1 Jia Huang,1 Xiong Li,5 Fangxu Tang,1 Zhihao Wang,6 Haiying Sun,1 Lin Wang,1 Shasha Zhou,1 Xiaoli Wang,1 Yao Jia,1 Ting Hu,1 Juan Gui,7 Dongyi Wan,1 Ding Ma,1 Shuang Li,1 Shixuan Wang11Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Techonology, Wuhan, 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhan General Hospital of Guangzhou Military Command, Wuhan, 3Hubei Key Laboratory of Embryonic Stem Cell Research, Tai-He Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, Hubei, 4Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Hospital of Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi, Hubei, 5Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wuhan Central Hospital, Wuhan, 6Department of Pathology and Pathophysiology, Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education of China for Neurological Disorders, Huazhong University of Science and Techonology, Wuhan, 7Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital, Wuhan University, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workAbstract: The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors in patients with surgically treated node-positive IB1-IIB cervical cancer and to establish a risk model for disease-free survival (DFS and overall survival (OS. A total of 170 patients who underwent radical hysterectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy as primary treatment for node-positive International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage IB1-IIB cervical cancer from January 2002 to December 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. Five published risk models were evaluated in this population. The variables, including common iliac lymph node metastasis and parametrial invasion, were independent predictors of outcome in a multivariate analysis using a Cox regression model. Three distinct prognostic groups (low, intermediate, and high risk

Lung Cancer Screening May Benefit Those at Highest Risk

Science.gov (United States)

People at the highest risk for lung cancer, based on a risk model, may be more likely to benefit from screening with low-dose CT, a new analysis suggests. The study authors believe the findings may better define who should undergo lung cancer screening, as this Cancer Currents blog post explains.

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

2014-01-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

Low dose diagnostic radiation does not increase cancer risk in cancer prone mice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boreham, D., E-mail: dboreham@nosm.ca [Northern Ontario School of Medicine, ON (Canada); Phan, N., E-mail: nghiphan13@yahoo.com [Univ. of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Lemon, J., E-mail: lemonja@mcmaster.ca [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

2014-07-01

The increased exposure of patients to low dose diagnostic ionizing radiation has created concern that these procedures will result in greater risk of carcinogenesis. However, there is substantial evidence that shows in many cases that low dose exposure has the opposite effect. We have investigated whether CT scans can modify mechanisms associated with carcinogenesis in cancer-prone mice. Cancer was induced in Trp53+/- mice with an acute high dose whole-body 4 Gy γ-radiation exposure. Four weeks following the cancer-inducing dose, weekly whole-body CT scans (10 mGy/scan, 75 kVp X-rays) were given for ten consecutive weeks adding an additional radiation burden of 0.1 Gy. Short-term biological responses and subsequent lifetime cancer risk were investigated. Five days following the last CT scan, there were no detectable differences in the spontaneous levels of DNA damage in blood cells (reticulocytes). In fact, CT scanned mice had significantly lower constitutive levels of oxidative DNA damage and cell death (apoptosis), compared to non-CT scanned mice. This shows that multiple low dose radiation exposures modified the radio response and indicates protective processes were induced in mice. In mice treated with the multiple CT scans following the high cancer-inducing 4 Gy dose, tumour latency was increased, significantly prolonging lifespan. We conclude that repeated CT scans can reduce the cancer risk of a prior high-dose radiation exposure, and delay the progression of specific types of radiation-induced cancers in Trp53+/-mice. This research shows for the first time that low dose exposure long after cancer initiation events alter risk and reduce cancer morbidity. Cancer induction following low doses does not follow a linear non-threshold model of risk and this model should not be used to extrapolate risk to humans following low dose exposure to ionizing radiation. (author)

MYC association with cancer risk and a new model of MYC-mediated repression.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Michael D

2014-07-01

MYC is one of the most frequently mutated and overexpressed genes in human cancer but the regulation of MYC expression and the ability of MYC protein to repress cellular genes (including itself) have remained mysterious. Recent genome-wide association studies show that many genetic polymorphisms associated with disease risk map to distal regulatory elements that regulate the MYC promoter through large chromatin loops. Cancer risk-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contain more potent enhancer activity, promoting higher MYC levels and a greater risk of disease. The MYC promoter is also subject to complex regulatory circuits and limits its own expression by a feedback loop. A model for MYC autoregulation is discussed which involves a signaling pathway between the PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homolog) tumor suppressor and repressive histone modifications laid down by the EZH2 methyltransferase. Copyright © 2014 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Risk modeling and screening for BRCA1 mutations among Filipino breast cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nato, Alejandro Q. Jr.

2003-03-01

Breast cancer susceptibility gene, type 1(BRCA1) has been thought to be responsible for ∼45% of families with multiple breast carcinomas and for ∼80% of breast and ovarian cancer families. In this study, we investigated 34 familial Filipino breast cancer (BC) patients to: (a) estimate breast cancer risks and BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities using risk assessment and prior probability models, respectively; (b) screen for putative polymorphisms at selected smaller exons of BRCA1 by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis; (c) screen for truncated mutations at BRCA1 exon 11 by radioactive protein truncation test (PTT); and (d) estimate posterior probabilities upon incorporation of screening results. SSCP analysis revealed 8 unique putative polymorphisms. Low prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exon 2, 5, 17, and 22 may indicate probable mutations. Contrastingly, high prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exons 13, 15, and 16 may suggest true polymorphisms which are biologically insignificant. PTT, DHPLC, and sequence analyses revealed a novel mutation in exon 11 involving GT insertion that resulted to a stop codon which generated a 29.7 kDa truncated protein product. This is the second documented mutation in BRCA1 exon 11 in a Filipino BC patient since 1998. Initial genotype-phenotype correlations in Filipino BC patients may be elucidated based on screening tests performed. Our results corroborate the findings of a study on unselected incident Filipino BC cases where the reported prevalence of BRCA1 mutation is low. The higher prevalence of putative polypmorphisms may be attributed to the increased stringency in patient prospecting. The Gail, Claus, and BRCAPRO models can be utilized to estimate BC risk in unaffected high-risk individuals but validation is needed. Most of the BRCAPRO and Myriad.com prior probability estimates coincide with the presence of BRCA1 mutation and/or putative polymorphisms. This pioneering

Risk modeling and screening for BRCA1 mutations among Filipino breast cancer patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nato, Jr, Alejandro Q

2003-03-01

Breast cancer susceptibility gene, type 1(BRCA1) has been thought to be responsible for {approx}45% of families with multiple breast carcinomas and for {approx}80% of breast and ovarian cancer families. In this study, we investigated 34 familial Filipino breast cancer (BC) patients to: (a) estimate breast cancer risks and BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities using risk assessment and prior probability models, respectively; (b) screen for putative polymorphisms at selected smaller exons of BRCA1 by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis; (c) screen for truncated mutations at BRCA1 exon 11 by radioactive protein truncation test (PTT); and (d) estimate posterior probabilities upon incorporation of screening results. SSCP analysis revealed 8 unique putative polymorphisms. Low prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exon 2, 5, 17, and 22 may indicate probable mutations. Contrastingly, high prevalence of unique putative polymorphisms at exons 13, 15, and 16 may suggest true polymorphisms which are biologically insignificant. PTT, DHPLC, and sequence analyses revealed a novel mutation in exon 11 involving GT insertion that resulted to a stop codon which generated a 29.7 kDa truncated protein product. This is the second documented mutation in BRCA1 exon 11 in a Filipino BC patient since 1998. Initial genotype-phenotype correlations in Filipino BC patients may be elucidated based on screening tests performed. Our results corroborate the findings of a study on unselected incident Filipino BC cases where the reported prevalence of BRCA1 mutation is low. The higher prevalence of putative polypmorphisms may be attributed to the increased stringency in patient prospecting. The Gail, Claus, and BRCAPRO models can be utilized to estimate BC risk in unaffected high-risk individuals but validation is needed. Most of the BRCAPRO and Myriad.com prior probability estimates coincide with the presence of BRCA1 mutation and/or putative polymorphisms. This

Risk Profiling May Improve Lung Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

A new modeling study suggests that individualized, risk-based selection of ever-smokers for lung cancer screening may prevent more lung cancer deaths and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of screening compared with current screening recommendations

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

2018-05-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaeth, M.; Pierce, D.A.

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate

Polymorphisms associated with the risk of lung cancer in a healthy Mexican Mestizo population: application of the additive model for cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebeca Pérez-Morales

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Mexico and worldwide. In the past decade, there has been an increase in the number of lung cancer cases in young people, which suggests an important role for genetic background in the etiology of this disease. In this study, we genetically characterized 16 polymorphisms in 12 low penetrance genes (AhR, CYP1A1, CYP2E1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, GSTPI, XRCC1, ERCC2, MGMT, CCND1 and TP53 in 382 healthy Mexican Mestizos as the first step in elucidating the genetic structure of this population and identifying high risk individuals. All of the genotypes analyzed were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, but different degrees of linkage were observed for polymorphisms in the CYP1A1 and EPHX1 genes. The genetic variability of this population was distributed in six clusters that were defined based on their genetic characteristics. The use of a polygenic model to assess the additive effect of low penetrance risk alleles identified combinations of risk genotypes that could be useful in predicting a predisposition to lung cancer. Estimation of the level of genetic susceptibility showed that the individual calculated risk value (iCRV ranged from 1 to 16, with a higher iCRV indicating a greater genetic susceptibility to lung cancer.

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

Science.gov (United States)

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

1989-01-01

The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

Helicobacter pylori Diversity and Gastric Cancer Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy L. Cover

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Helicobacter pylori infection is the strongest known risk factor for this malignancy. An important goal is to identify H. pylori-infected persons at high risk for gastric cancer, so that these individuals can be targeted for therapeutic intervention. H. pylori exhibits a high level of intraspecies genetic diversity, and over the past two decades, many studies have endeavored to identify strain-specific features of H. pylori that are linked to development of gastric cancer. One of the most prominent differences among H. pylori strains is the presence or absence of a 40-kb chromosomal region known as the cag pathogenicity island (PAI. Current evidence suggests that the risk of gastric cancer is very low among persons harboring H. pylori strains that lack the cag PAI. Among persons harboring strains that contain the cag PAI, the risk of gastric cancer is shaped by a complex interplay among multiple strain-specific bacterial factors as well as host factors. This review discusses the strain-specific properties of H. pylori that correlate with increased gastric cancer risk, focusing in particular on secreted proteins and surface-exposed proteins, and describes evidence from cell culture and animal models linking these factors to gastric cancer pathogenesis. Strain-specific features of H. pylori that may account for geographic variation in gastric cancer incidence are also discussed.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

Risk determination and prevention of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, Anthony; Anderson, Annie S; Clarke, Robert B; Duffy, Stephen W; Evans, D Gareth; Garcia-Closas, Montserat; Gescher, Andy J; Key, Timothy J; Saxton, John M; Harvie, Michelle N

2014-09-28

Breast cancer is an increasing public health problem. Substantial advances have been made in the treatment of breast cancer, but the introduction of methods to predict women at elevated risk and prevent the disease has been less successful. Here, we summarize recent data on newer approaches to risk prediction, available approaches to prevention, how new approaches may be made, and the difficult problem of using what we already know to prevent breast cancer in populations. During 2012, the Breast Cancer Campaign facilitated a series of workshops, each covering a specialty area of breast cancer to identify gaps in our knowledge. The risk-and-prevention panel involved in this exercise was asked to expand and update its report and review recent relevant peer-reviewed literature. The enlarged position paper presented here highlights the key gaps in risk-and-prevention research that were identified, together with recommendations for action. The panel estimated from the relevant literature that potentially 50% of breast cancer could be prevented in the subgroup of women at high and moderate risk of breast cancer by using current chemoprevention (tamoxifen, raloxifene, exemestane, and anastrozole) and that, in all women, lifestyle measures, including weight control, exercise, and moderating alcohol intake, could reduce breast cancer risk by about 30%. Risk may be estimated by standard models potentially with the addition of, for example, mammographic density and appropriate single-nucleotide polymorphisms. This review expands on four areas: (a) the prediction of breast cancer risk, (b) the evidence for the effectiveness of preventive therapy and lifestyle approaches to prevention, (c) how understanding the biology of the breast may lead to new targets for prevention, and (d) a summary of published guidelines for preventive approaches and measures required for their implementation. We hope that efforts to fill these and other gaps will lead to considerable advances in our

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

Risk of thyroid cancer, brain cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma after adult leukemia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Sune F; Bojesen, Stig E; Birgens, Henrik S

2011-01-01

Patients with childhood leukemia surviving into adulthood have elevated risk of developing thyroid cancer, brain cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL); these risks cannot automatically be extrapolated to patients surviving adult leukemia. We tested whether survivors of adult leukemia...... are at increased risk of developing thyroid cancer, brain cancer, and NHL. We included the entire adult Danish population (14 years of age or older), in a 28-year follow-up period from 1980 through 2007, composed of 6 542 639 persons; during this period, 18 834 developed adult leukemia, 4561 developed thyroid...... cancer, 13 362 developed brain cancer, and 15 967 developed NHL. In nested studies using Cox regression models on individual participant data, we found that, after adult leukemia, the multivariate adjusted hazard ratios were 4.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-8.5) for thyroid cancer, 1.9 (95% CI, 1...

Risk of second primary cancers after testicular cancer in East and West Germany: A focus on contralateral testicular cancers

Science.gov (United States)

Rusner, Carsten; Streller, Brigitte; Stegmaier, Christa; Trocchi, Pietro; Kuss, Oliver; McGlynn, Katherine A; Trabert, Britton; Stang, Andreas

2014-01-01

Testicular cancer survival rates improved dramatically after cisplatin-based therapy was introduced in the 1970s. However, chemotherapy and radiation therapy are potentially carcinogenic. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancers including the risk associated with primary histologic type (seminoma and non-seminoma) among testicular cancer survivors in Germany. We identified 16 990 and 1401 cases of testicular cancer in population-based cancer registries of East Germany (1961–1989 and 1996–2008) and Saarland (a federal state in West Germany; 1970–2008), respectively. We estimated the risk of a second primary cancer using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). To determine trends, we plotted model-based estimated annual SIRs. In East Germany, a total of 301 second primary cancers of any location were observed between 1961 and 1989 (SIR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7–2.1), and 159 cancers (any location) were observed between 1996 and 2008 (SIR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4–2.0). The SIRs for contralateral testicular cancer were increased in the registries with a range from 6.0 in Saarland to 13.9 in East Germany. The SIR for seminoma, in particular, was higher in East Germany compared to the other registries. We observed constant trends in the model-based SIRs for contralateral testicular cancers. The majority of reported SIRs of other cancer sites including histology-specific risks showed low precisions of estimated effects, likely due to small sample sizes. Testicular cancer patients are at increased risk especially for cancers of the contralateral testis and should receive intensive follow-ups. PMID:24407180

miR-146a C/G polymorphism increased the risk of head and neck cancer, but overall cancer risk: an analysis of 89 studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Dezhong; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Xiaolei

2018-02-28

Several studies have evaluated the association of miR-146a C/G with head and neck cancer (HNC) susceptibility, and overall cancer risk, but with inconclusive outcomes. To drive a more precise estimation, we carried out this meta-analysis. The literature was searched from MEDLINE (mainly PubMed), Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar databases to identify eligible studies. A total of 89 studies were included. The results showed that miR-146a C/G was significantly associated with increased HNC risk in dominant model ( I 2 =15.6%, P heterogeneity =0.282, odds ratio (OR) =1.088, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.002-1.182, P =0.044). However, no cancer risk was detected under all genetic models. By further stratified analysis, we found that rs4919510 mutation contributed to the risk of HNC amongst Asians under homozygote model ( I 2 =0, P heterogeneity =0.541, OR =1.189, 95% CI =1.025-1.378, P =0.022), and dominant model ( I 2 =0, P heterogeneity =0.959, OR =1.155, 95% CI =1.016-1.312, P =0.028). Simultaneously, in the stratified analysis by source of controls, a significantly increased cancer risk amongst population-based studies was found under homozygote model, dominant model, recessive model, and allele comparison model. However, no significant association was found in the stratified analysis by ethnicity and source of control. The results indicated that miR-146a C/G polymorphism may contribute to the increased HNC susceptibility and could be a promising target to forecast cancer risk for clinical practice. However, no significant association was found in subgroup analysis by ethnicity and source of control. To further confirm these results, well-designed large-scale case-control studies are needed in the future. © 2018 The Author(s).

Update on breast cancer risk prediction and prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Sestak, Ivana; Cuzick, Jack

2015-02-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide. This review will focus on current prevention strategies for women at high risk. The identification of women who are at high risk of developing breast cancer is key to breast cancer prevention. Recent findings have shown that the inclusion of breast density and a panel of low-penetrance genetic polymorphisms can improve risk estimation compared with previous models. Preventive therapy with aromatase inhibitors has produced large reductions in breast cancer incidence in postmenopausal women. Tamoxifen confers long-term protection and is the only proven preventive treatment for premenopausal women. Several other agents, including metformin, bisphosphonates, aspirin and statins, have been found to be effective in nonrandomized settings. There are many options for the prevention of oestrogen-positive breast cancer, in postmenopausal women who can be given a selective oestrogen receptor modulator or an aromatase inhibitor. It still remains unclear how to prevent oestrogen-negative breast cancer, which occurs more often in premenopausal women. Identification of women at high risk of the disease is crucial, and the inclusion of breast density and a panel of genetic polymorphisms, which individually have low penetrance, can improve risk assessment.

Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2006-01-01

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

Insignificant disease among men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sung Kyu; Vertosick, Emily; Sjoberg, Daniel D; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A

2014-12-01

A paucity of data exists on the insignificant disease potentially suitable for active surveillance (AS) among men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PCa). We tried to identify pathologically insignificant disease and its preoperative predictors in men who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) for intermediate-risk PCa. We analyzed data of 1,630 men who underwent RP for intermediate-risk disease. Total tumor volume (TTV) data were available in 332 men. We examined factors associated with classically defined pathologically insignificant cancer (organ-confined disease with TTV ≤0.5 ml with no Gleason pattern 4 or 5) and pathologically favorable cancer (organ-confined disease with no Gleason pattern 4 or 5) potentially suitable for AS. Decision curve analysis was used to assess clinical utility of a multivariable model including preoperative variables for predicting pathologically unfavorable cancer. In the entire cohort, 221 of 1,630 (13.6 %) total patients had pathologically favorable cancer. Among 332 patients with TTV data available, 26 (7.8 %) had classically defined pathologically insignificant cancer. Between threshold probabilities of 20 and 40 %, decision curve analysis demonstrated that using multivariable model to identify AS candidates would not provide any benefit over simply treating all men who have intermediate-risk disease with RP. Although a minority of patients with intermediate-risk disease may harbor pathologically favorable or insignificant cancer, currently available conventional tools are not sufficiently able to identify those patients.

Fall risk in community-dwelling elderly cancer survivors: a predictive model for gerontological nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Spoelstra, Sandra; Given, Barbara; von Eye, Alexander; Given, Charles

2010-02-01

The aim of this predictive study was to test a structural model to establish predictors of fall risk in elderly cancer survivors. An aging and nursing model of care was synthesized and used to examine the Minimum Data Set for 6,912 low-income older adult participants in a community setting in the midwestern United States. Data analysis established relationships among fall risk and age, race/ethnicity, history of a previous fall, depression, pain, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, incontinence, vision, and cognitive status. Factors leading to fall risk can direct nursing activities that have the potential to prevent falls, thus improving older adults' quality of life. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

Estimated risk for secondary cancer in the contra-lateral breast following radiation therapy of breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johansen, Safora; Danielsen, Turi; Olsen, Dag Rune

2008-01-01

Purpose. To facilitate a discussion about the impact of dose heterogeneity on the risk for secondary contralateral breast (CB) cancer predicted with linear and non linear models associated with primary breast irradiation. Methods and materials. Dose volume statistics of the CB calculated for eight patients using a collapsed cone algorithm were used to predict the excess relative risk (ERR) for cancer induction in CB. Both linear and non-linear models were employed. A sensitivity analysis demonstrating the impact of different parameter values on calculated ERR for the eight patients was also included in this study. Results. A proportionality assumption was established to make the calculations with a linear and non-linear model comparable. ERR of secondary cancer predicted by the linear model varied considerably between the patients, while the predicted ERR for the same patients using the non-linear model showed very small variation. The predicted ERRs by the two models were indistinguishable for small doses, i.e. below ∼3 Gy. The sensitivity analysis showed that the quadratic component of the radiation-induction pre-malignant cell term is negligible for lower dose level. The ERR is highly sensitive to the value of agr1 and agr2. Conclusions. Optimization of breast cancer radiation therapy, where also the risk for radiation induced secondary malignancies in the contralateral breast is taken into account, requires robust and valid risk assessment. The linear dose-risk model does not account for the complexity in the mechanisms underlying the development of secondary malignancies following exposure to radiation; this is particularly important when estimating risk associated with highly heterogeneous dose distributions as is the case in the contralateral breast of women receiving breast cancer irradiation

Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

2002-01-01

Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

2014-09-01

Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

A Validated Clinical Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer in Smokers of All Ages and Exposure Types

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markaki, Maria; Tsamardinos, Ioannis; Langhammer, Arnulf

2018-01-01

Lung cancer causes >1·6 million deaths annually, with early diagnosis being paramount to effective treatment. Here we present a validated risk assessment model for lung cancer screening. The prospective HUNT2 population study in Norway examined 65,237 people aged >20years in 1995-97. After a median...

Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

2015-01-01

Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

Long-term nitrite inhalant exposure and cancer risk in MSM

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Anupriya; Uno, Hajime; Holman, Alex; Lorenz, David R.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Gabuzda, Dana

2017-01-01

Objectives: Nitrite inhalants (poppers) are commonly used recreational drugs among MSM and were previously associated with elevated rates of high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) seroconversion, and transient immunosuppressive effects in experimental models. Whether long-term popper use is associated with cancer risk among MSM in the HAART era is unclear. Design: Prospective cohort study of cancer risk in 3223 HIV-infected and uninfected MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1996–2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between heavy popper use (defined as daily or weekly use for at least 1 year) and risk of individual cancers or composite category of virus-associated cancers. Results: Among all participants, heavy popper use was not associated with increased risk of any individual cancers. Among HIV-uninfected men aged 50–70, heavy popper use was associated with increased risk of virus-associated cancer with causes linked to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus in models adjusted for demographics, number of sexual partners, immunological parameters (CD4+ cell counts or CD4+/CD8+ ratios), and hepatitis B and C viruses [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24, 1.05–9.96], or sexually transmitted infections (IRR 3.03, 95% CI, 1.01–9.09), as was cumulative use over a 5-year period (IRR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003–1.021; P = 0.007). There was no significant association between heavy popper use and virus-associated cancer in HIV-infected men. Conclusions: Long-term heavy popper use is associated with elevated risk of some virus-associated cancers with causes related to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus infections in older HIV-uninfected MSM independent of sexual behavior and immunological parameters. PMID:28441176

Models for comparing lung-cancer risks in radon- and plutonium-exposed experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.; Cross, F.T.; Sanders, C.L.; Dagle, G.E.

1990-10-01

Epidemiologic studies of radon-exposed underground miners have provided the primary basis for estimating human lung-cancer risks resulting from radon exposure. These studies are sometimes used to estimate lung-cancer risks resulting from exposure to other alpha- emitters as well. The latter use, often referred to as the dosimetric approach, is based on the assumption that a specified dose to the lung produces the same lung-tumor risk regardless of the substance producing the dose. At Pacific Northwest Laboratory, experiments have been conducted in which laboratory rodents have been given inhalation exposures to radon and to plutonium ( 239 PuO 2 ). These experiments offer a unique opportunity to compare risks, and thus to investigate the validity of the dosimetric approach. This comparison is made most effectively by modeling the age-specific risk as a function of dose in a way that is comparable to analyses of human data. Such modeling requires assumptions about whether tumors are the cause of death or whether they are found incidental to death from other causes. Results based on the assumption that tumors are fatal indicate that the radon and plutonium dose-response curves differ, with a linear function providing a good description of the radon data, and a pure quadratic function providing a good description of the plutonium data. However, results based on the assumption that tumors are incidental to death indicate that the dose-response curves for the two exposures are very similar, and thus support the dosimetric approach. 14 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs

Prostate Health Index improves multivariable risk prediction of aggressive prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Loeb, Stacy; Shin, Sanghyuk S; Broyles, Dennis L; Wei, John T; Sanda, Martin; Klee, George; Partin, Alan W; Sokoll, Lori; Chan, Daniel W; Bangma, Chris H; van Schaik, Ron H N; Slawin, Kevin M; Marks, Leonard S; Catalona, William J

2017-07-01

To examine the use of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as a continuous variable in multivariable risk assessment for aggressive prostate cancer in a large multicentre US study. The study population included 728 men, with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 2-10 ng/mL and a negative digital rectal examination, enrolled in a prospective, multi-site early detection trial. The primary endpoint was aggressive prostate cancer, defined as biopsy Gleason score ≥7. First, we evaluated whether the addition of PHI improves the performance of currently available risk calculators (the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial [PCPT] and European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC] risk calculators). We also designed and internally validated a new PHI-based multivariable predictive model, and created a nomogram. Of 728 men undergoing biopsy, 118 (16.2%) had aggressive prostate cancer. The PHI predicted the risk of aggressive prostate cancer across the spectrum of values. Adding PHI significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators for aggressive disease. A new model was created using age, previous biopsy, prostate volume, PSA and PHI, with an area under the curve of 0.746. The bootstrap-corrected model showed good calibration with observed risk for aggressive prostate cancer and had net benefit on decision-curve analysis. Using PHI as part of multivariable risk assessment leads to a significant improvement in the detection of aggressive prostate cancer, potentially reducing harms from unnecessary prostate biopsy and overdiagnosis. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cancer risk among Danish women with cosmetic breast implants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis, Søren; Hölmich, Lisbet R; McLaughlin, Joseph K

2006-01-01

The available epidemiologic evidence does not support a carcinogenic effect of silicone breast implants on breast or other cancers. Data on cancer risk other than breast cancer are limited and few studies have assessed cancer risk beyond 10-15 years after breast implantation. We extended follow...... proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, calendar period and reproductive history. We observed 163 cancers among women with breast implants compared to 136.7 expected based on general population rates (SIR = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.4), during a mean follow-up period of 14.4 years...... (range = 0-30 years). Women with breast implants experienced a reduced risk of breast cancer (SIR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5-1.0), and an increased risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (SIR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.5-2.7). Stratification by age at implantation, calendar year at implantation and time since implantation...

Identification of cancer risk and associated behaviour: implications for social marketing campaigns for cancer prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kippen, Rebecca; James, Erica; Ward, Bernadette; Buykx, Penny; Shamsullah, Ardel; Watson, Wendy; Chapman, Kathy

2017-08-17

Community misconception of what causes cancer is an important consideration when devising communication strategies around cancer prevention, while those initiating social marketing campaigns must decide whether to target the general population or to tailor messages for different audiences. This paper investigates the relationships between demographic characteristics, identification of selected cancer risk factors, and associated protective behaviours, to inform audience segmentation for cancer prevention social marketing. Data for this cross-sectional study (n = 3301) are derived from Cancer Council New South Wales' 2013 Cancer Prevention Survey. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between respondent demographic characteristics and identification of each of seven cancer risk factors; demographic characteristics and practice of the seven 'protective' behaviours associated with the seven cancer risk factors; and identification of cancer risk factors and practising the associated protective behaviours, controlling for demographic characteristics. More than 90% of respondents across demographic groups identified sun exposure and smoking cigarettes as moderate or large cancer risk factors. Around 80% identified passive smoking as a moderate/large risk factor, and 40-60% identified being overweight or obese, drinking alcohol, not eating enough vegetables and not eating enough fruit. Women and older respondents were more likely to identify most cancer risk factors as moderate/large, and to practise associated protective behaviours. Education was correlated with identification of smoking as a moderate/large cancer risk factor, and with four of the seven protective behaviours. Location (metropolitan/regional) and country of birth (Australia/other) were weak predictors of identification and of protective behaviours. Identification of a cancer risk factor as moderate/large was a significant predictor for five out

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buonanno, G., E-mail: buonanno@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy); International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street 2, 4001 Brisbane, Qld. (Australia); Giovinco, G., E-mail: giovinco@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy); Morawska, L., E-mail: morawska@qut.edu.au [International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street 2, 4001 Brisbane, Qld. (Australia); Stabile, L., E-mail: stabile@unicas.it [Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, FR (Italy)

2015-10-15

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter. - Highlights: • Lung cancer risk for non-smoking Italian population due to particle inhalation. • The average lung cancer risk for Italian population is equal to 1.90×10{sup −2}. • Ultrafine particle is the aerosol metric mostly contributing to lung cancer risk. • B(a)P is the main (particle-bounded) compound

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buonanno, G.; Giovinco, G.; Morawska, L.; Stabile, L.

2015-01-01

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter. - Highlights: • Lung cancer risk for non-smoking Italian population due to particle inhalation. • The average lung cancer risk for Italian population is equal to 1.90×10 −2 . • Ultrafine particle is the aerosol metric mostly contributing to lung cancer risk. • B(a)P is the main (particle-bounded) compound contributing

Anthropometric characteristics and ovarian cancer risk and survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Minlikeeva, Albina N; Moysich, Kirsten B; Mayor, Paul C; Etter, John L; Cannioto, Rikki A; Ness, Roberta B; Starbuck, Kristen; Edwards, Robert P; Segal, Brahm H; Lele, Sashikant; Odunsi, Kunle; Diergaarde, Brenda; Modugno, Francesmary

2018-02-01

Multiple studies have examined the role of anthropometric characteristics in ovarian cancer risk and survival; however, their results have been conflicting. We investigated the associations between weight change, height and height change and risk and outcome of ovarian cancer using data from a large population-based case-control study. Data from 699 ovarian cancer cases and 1,802 controls who participated in the HOPE study were included. We used unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, race, number of pregnancies, use of oral contraceptives, and family history of breast or ovarian cancer to examine the associations between self-reported height and weight and height change with ovarian cancer risk. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age and stage were used to examine the association between the exposure variables and overall and progression-free survival among ovarian cancer cases. We observed an increased risk of ovarian cancer mortality and progression for gaining more than 20 pounds between ages 18-30, HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.05-1.76, and HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.66, respectively. Losing weight and gaining it back multiple times was inversely associated with both ovarian cancer risk, OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.63-0.97 for 1-4 times and OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.54-0.99 for 5-9 times, and mortality, HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.99 for 10-14 times. Finally, being taller during adolescence and adulthood was associated with increased risk of mortality. Taller stature and weight gain over lifetime were not related to ovarian cancer risk. Our results suggest that height and weight and their change over time may influence ovarian cancer risk and survival. These findings suggest that biological mechanisms underlying these associations may be hormone driven and may play an important role in relation to ovarian carcinogenesis and tumor progression.

Statin use and risk of endometrial cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sperling, Cecilie D.; Verdoodt, Freija; Friis, Soren

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Laboratory and epidemiological evidence have suggested that statin use may protect against the development of certain cancers, including endometrial cancer. In a nationwide registry-based case-control study, we examined the association between statin use and risk of endometrial cancer....... MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cases were female residents of Denmark with a primary diagnosis of endometrial cancer during 2000-2009. For each case, we selected 15 female population controls matched on date of birth (±one month) using risk-set sampling. Ever use of statin was defined as two or more prescriptions...... on separate dates. Conditional logistic regressions were used to estimate age-matched (by design) and multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for endometrial cancer associated with statin use. The multivariable-adjusted models included parity, hormone replacement therapy...

Wise Investment? Modeling Industry Profitability and Risk of Targeted Chemotherapy for Incurable Solid Cancers.

Science.gov (United States)

Conter, Henry J; Chu, Quincy S C

2012-03-01

Pharmaceutical development involves substantial financial risk. This risk, rising development costs, and the promotion of continued research and development have been cited as major drivers in the progressive increase in drug prices. Currently, cost-effective analyses are being used to determine the value of treatment. However, cost-effective analyses practically function as a threshold for value and do not directly address the rationale for drug prices. We set out to create a functional model for industry price decisions and clarify the minimum acceptable profitability of new drugs. Assuming that industry should only invest in profitable ventures, we employed a linear cost-volume-profit breakeven analysis to equate initial capital investment and risk and post-drug-approval profits, where drug development represents the bulk of investment. A Markov decision analysis model was also used to define the relationships between investment events risk. A systematic literature search was performed to determine event probabilities, clinical trial costs, and total expenses as inputs into the model. Disease-specific inputs, current market size across regions, and lengths of treatment for cancer types were also included. With development of single novel chemotherapies costing from $802 to $1,042 million (2002 US dollars), pharmaceutical profits should range from $4.3 to $5.2 billion, with an expected rate of return on investment of 11% annually. However, diversification across cancer types for chemotherapy can reduce the minimum required profit to less than $3 billion. For optimal diversification, industry should study four tumor types per drug; however, nonprofit organizations could tolerate eight parallel development tracks to minimize the risk of development failure. Assuming that pharmaceutical companies hold exclusive rights for drug sales for only 5 years after market approval, the minimum required profit per drug per month per patient ranges from $294 for end-stage lung

Wise Investment? Modeling Industry Profitability and Risk of Targeted Chemotherapy for Incurable Solid Cancers

Science.gov (United States)

Conter, Henry J.; Chu, Quincy S.C.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Pharmaceutical development involves substantial financial risk. This risk, rising development costs, and the promotion of continued research and development have been cited as major drivers in the progressive increase in drug prices. Currently, cost-effective analyses are being used to determine the value of treatment. However, cost-effective analyses practically function as a threshold for value and do not directly address the rationale for drug prices. We set out to create a functional model for industry price decisions and clarify the minimum acceptable profitability of new drugs. Methods: Assuming that industry should only invest in profitable ventures, we employed a linear cost-volume-profit breakeven analysis to equate initial capital investment and risk and post–drug-approval profits, where drug development represents the bulk of investment. A Markov decision analysis model was also used to define the relationships between investment events risk. A systematic literature search was performed to determine event probabilities, clinical trial costs, and total expenses as inputs into the model. Disease-specific inputs, current market size across regions, and lengths of treatment for cancer types were also included. Results: With development of single novel chemotherapies costing from $802 to $1,042 million (2002 US dollars), pharmaceutical profits should range from $4.3 to $5.2 billion, with an expected rate of return on investment of 11% annually. However, diversification across cancer types for chemotherapy can reduce the minimum required profit to less than $3 billion. For optimal diversification, industry should study four tumor types per drug; however, nonprofit organizations could tolerate eight parallel development tracks to minimize the risk of development failure. Assuming that pharmaceutical companies hold exclusive rights for drug sales for only 5 years after market approval, the minimum required profit per drug per month per patient ranges

Factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1988-11-01

The collective influence of biologic and physical factors that modify risks of radiation-induced cancer introduces uncertainties sufficient to deny precision of estimates of human cancer risk that can be calculated for low-dose radiation in exposed populations. The important biologic characteristics include the tissue sites and cell types, baseline cancer incidence, minimum latent period, time-to-tumor recognition, and the influence of individual host (age and sex) and competing etiologic influences. Physical factors include radiation dose, dose rate, and radiation quality. Statistical factors include time-response projection models, risk coefficients, and dose-response relationships. Other modifying factors include other carcinogens, and other biological sources (hormonal status, immune status, hereditary factors)

Serum Insulin, Glucose, Indices of Insulin Resistance, and Risk of Lung Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Argirion, Ilona; Weinstein, Stephanie J; Männistö, Satu; Albanes, Demetrius; Mondul, Alison M

2017-10-01

Background: Although insulin may increase the risk of some cancers, few studies have examined fasting serum insulin and lung cancer risk. Methods: We examined serum insulin, glucose, and indices of insulin resistance [insulin:glucose molar ratio and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)] and lung cancer risk using a case-cohort study within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study of Finnish men. A total of 196 cases and 395 subcohort members were included. Insulin and glucose were measured in fasting serum collected 5 to 12 years before diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate the relative risk of lung cancer. Results: The average time between blood collection and lung cancer was 9.6 years. Fasting serum insulin levels were 8.7% higher in subcohort members than cases. After multivariable adjustment, men in the fourth quartile of insulin had a significantly higher risk of lung cancer than those in the first quartile [HR = 2.10; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-3.94]. A similar relationship was seen with HOMA-IR (HR = 1.83; 95% CI, 0.99-3.38). Risk was not strongly associated with glucose or the insulin:glucose molar ratio ( P trend = 0.55 and P trend = 0.27, respectively). Conclusions: Higher fasting serum insulin concentrations, as well as the presence of insulin resistance, appear to be associated with an elevated risk of lung cancer development. Impact: Although insulin is hypothesized to increase risk of some cancers, insulin and lung cancer remain understudied. Higher insulin levels and insulin resistance were associated with increased lung cancer risk. Although smoking cessation is the best method of lung cancer prevention, other lifestyle changes that affect insulin concentrations and sensitivity may reduce lung cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(10); 1519-24. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

2017-01-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

Obesity and Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... hormone therapy and for tumors that express hormone receptors . Obesity is also a risk factor for breast ...

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

2017-07-11

Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

The German cervical cancer screening model: development and validation of a decision-analytic model for cervical cancer screening in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, Uwe; Sroczynski, Gaby; Hillemanns, Peter; Engel, Jutta; Stabenow, Roland; Stegmaier, Christa; Voigt, Kerstin; Gibis, Bernhard; Hölzel, Dieter; Goldie, Sue J

2006-04-01

We sought to develop and validate a decision-analytic model for the natural history of cervical cancer for the German health care context and to apply it to cervical cancer screening. We developed a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer and cervical cancer screening in the German health care context. The model reflects current German practice standards for screening, diagnostic follow-up and treatment regarding cervical cancer and its precursors. Data for disease progression and cervical cancer survival were obtained from the literature and German cancer registries. Accuracy of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing was based on meta-analyses. We performed internal and external model validation using observed epidemiological data for unscreened women from different German cancer registries. The model predicts life expectancy, incidence of detected cervical cancer cases, lifetime cervical cancer risks and mortality. The model predicted a lifetime cervical cancer risk of 3.0% and a lifetime cervical cancer mortality of 1.0%, with a peak cancer incidence of 84/100,000 at age 51 years. These results were similar to observed data from German cancer registries, German literature data and results from other international models. Based on our model, annual Pap screening could prevent 98.7% of diagnosed cancer cases and 99.6% of deaths due to cervical cancer in women completely adherent to screening and compliant to treatment. Extending the screening interval from 1 year to 2, 3 or 5 years resulted in reduced screening effectiveness. This model provides a tool for evaluating the long-term effectiveness of different cervical cancer screening tests and strategies.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-01-01

Abstract This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan. We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk. A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98–2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy. PMID:27015220

Mechanistic modeling for mammography screening risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bijwaard, Harmen

2008-01-01

Full text: Western populations show a very high incidence of breast cancer and in many countries mammography screening programs have been set up for the early detection of these cancers. Through these programs large numbers of women (in the Netherlands, 700.000 per year) are exposed to low but not insignificant X-ray doses. ICRP based risk estimates indicate that the number of breast cancer casualties due to mammography screening can be as high as 50 in the Netherlands per year. The number of lives saved is estimated to be much higher, but for an accurate calculation of the benefits of screening a better estimate of these risks is indispensable. Here it is attempted to better quantify the radiological risks of mammography screening through the application of a biologically based model for breast tumor induction by X-rays. The model is applied to data obtained from the National Institutes of Health in the U.S. These concern epidemiological data of female TB patients who received high X-ray breast doses in the period 1930-1950 through frequent fluoroscopy of their lungs. The mechanistic model that is used to describe the increased breast cancer incidence is based on an earlier study by Moolgavkar et al. (1980), in which the natural background incidence of breast cancer was modeled. The model allows for a more sophisticated extrapolation of risks to the low dose X-ray exposures that are common in mammography screening and to the higher ages that are usually involved. Furthermore, it allows for risk transfer to other (non-western) populations. The results have implications for decisions on the frequency of screening, the number of mammograms taken at each screening, minimum and maximum ages for screening and the transfer to digital equipment. (author)

Five-year risk of interval-invasive second breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Janie M; Buist, Diana S M; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C; Halpern, Elkan F; Gazelle, G Scott; Lehman, Constance D; Henderson, Louise M; Hubbard, Rebecca A

2015-07-01

Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

A Cohort Study on Risk Factors of Lung Cancer in Yunnan Tin Miners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong JIANG

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Background and objective Smoking is a major cause of lung cancer. Studies of lung cancer among miners have shown that occupational exposure also played an important role. The aim of this study is to investigate radon, cigarette use and other risk factors of lung cancer in Yunnan tin miners and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of occupational lung cancer. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted among Yunnan tin miners, the associations between potential risk factors for lung cancer were analyzed by multivariate Cox regression model. Effects of age at first radon exposure and radon exposure rate on lung cancer risk were analyzed. The relationship between cumulative working level month and lung cancer was analyzed according to smoking status. The joint effect of tobacco use and cumulative radon exposure was analyzed based on additive and multiplicative models. Results Increased risk of lung cancer was associated with age at enrollment, tobacco use, prior bronchitis, and cumulative arsenic and radon exposure, while higher education level was associated with decreased lung cancer risk. An inverse effect of radon exposure rate was observed. There was no significant association between lung cancer risk and first radon exposure age. There was a significant additive interaction between tobacco use and radon exposure on lung cancer risk. Conclusion Several risk factors may contribute to the high incidence of lung cancer in Yunnan tin miners. Further studies are warranted to evaluate joint effect of different risk factors.

Association between phytosterol intake and colorectal cancer risk: a case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jing; Xu, Ming; Fang, Yu-Jing; Lu, Min-Shan; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Huang, Wu-Qing; Chen, Yu-Ming; Zhang, Cai-Xia

2017-03-01

A study in rodent models showed that phytosterols protected against colon carcinogenesis, probably by inhibiting dysregulated cell cycle progression and inducing cellular apoptosis. However, epidemiological studies on the relationship between phytosterols and colorectal cancer risk are quite limited. The aim of this study was to investigate dietary phytosterol intake in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the Chinese population. A case-control study was conducted from July 2010 to June 2016, recruiting 1802 eligible colorectal cancer cases plus 1813 age (5-year interval) and sex frequency-matched controls. Dietary information was collected by using a validated FFQ. The OR and 95 % CI of colorectal cancer risk were assessed by multivariable logistic regression models. A higher total intake of phytosterols was found to be associated with a 50 % reduction in colorectal cancer risk. After adjusting for various confounders, the OR of the highest quartile intake compared with the lowest quartile intake was 0·50 (95 % CI 0·41, 0·61, P trendphytosterols. An inverse association was also found between the consumption of β-sitosterol, campesterol, campestanol and colorectal cancer risk. However, stigmasterol intake was related to an increased risk of colorectal cancer. No statistically significant association was found between β-sitostanol and colorectal cancer risk. Stratified analysis by sex showed that the positive association of stigmasterol intake with colorectal cancer risk was found only in women. These data indicated that the consumption of total phytosterols, β-sitosterol, campesterol and campestanol is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in a Chinese population.

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Competing risks of cancer mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with multimorbidity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth A. Bayliss

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Cancer patients with cardiovascular and other comorbidities are at concurrent risk of multiple adverse outcomes. However, most treatment decisions are guided by evidence from single-outcome models, which may be misleading for multimorbid patients. Objective: We assessed the interacting effects of cancer, cardiovascular, and other morbidity burdens on the competing outcomes of cancer mortality, serious cardiovascular events, and other-cause mortality. Design: We analyzed a cohort of 6,500 adults with initial cancer diagnosis between 2001 and 2008, SEER 5-year survival ≥26%, and a range of cardiovascular risk factors. We estimated the cumulative incidence of cancer mortality, a serious cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular mortality, and other-cause mortality over 5 years, and identified factors associated with the competing risks of each outcome using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Following cancer diagnosis, there were 996 (15.3% cancer deaths, 328 (5.1% serious cardiovascular events, and 542 (8.3% deaths from other causes. In all, 4,634 (71.3% cohort members had none of these outcomes. Although cancer prognosis had the greatest effect, cardiovascular and other morbidity also independently increased the hazard of each outcome. The effect of cancer prognosis on outcome was greatest in year 1, and the effect of other morbidity was greater in individuals with better cancer prognoses. Conclusion: In multimorbid oncology populations, comorbidities interact to affect the competing risk of different outcomes. Quantifying these risks may provide persons with cancer plus cardiovascular and other comorbidities more accurate information for shared decision-making than risks calculated from single-outcome models.

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, L.E.; Cucinotta, F.A.

1999-01-01

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/μm), 1 MeV α-particles (LET=100 keV/μm), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/μm) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 μm 2 . Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10 -2 % (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10 -3 %-0.514x10 -2 %). For α-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Keil, Alexander P; Richardson, David B

2017-12-06

Complex statistical models fitted to data from studies of atomic bomb survivors are used to estimate the human health effects of ionizing radiation exposures. We describe and illustrate an approach to estimate population risks from ionizing radiation exposure that relaxes many assumptions about radiation-related mortality. The approach draws on developments in methods for causal inference. The results offer a different way to quantify radiation's effects and show that conventional estimates of the population burden of excess cancer at high radiation doses are driven strongly by projecting outside the range of current data. Summary results obtained using the proposed approach are similar in magnitude to those obtained using conventional methods, although estimates of radiation-related excess cancers differ for many age, sex, and dose groups. At low doses relevant to typical exposures, the strength of evidence in data is surprisingly weak. Statements regarding human health effects at low doses rely strongly on the use of modeling assumptions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Relative risk models of lung cancer in uranium miners

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tomasek, L [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Placek, V [Inst. for Expertises and Emergencies, Pribram-Kamenna (Czech Republic)

1996-12-31

The study population of the S cohort (studies of underground miners of uranium and other substances as the source of information on long term effects of exposure to radon and its progeny) involve uranium miners, that started underground work at the Jachymov and Horni Slavkov mines in the period 1978-1959, and had worked at least for four years. A total 4320 men satisfied these criteria. During the decade up to 1990, follow-up of the cohort mainly relied on the national population registry. In order to improve the follow-u, a series of additional checks were conducted: in the files of the Czech and Slovak Pensions Offices, by local enquires, and by direct correspondence. These additional efforts resulted in an increase of more than 10% in the numbers of known men to have died or emigrated. An exceptional feature of the S study is the large number of measurements of radon concentrations made in each mine-shaft (mean number per year and shaft was 223 in the period 1949-1960). Each man`s annual exposures to radon progeny in terms of working levels were estimated combining measurement data with men`s employment details. The excess relative risk models were used in the form RR = c(1 + ERR(w,x)), where ERR is excess relative risk, w and x denote exposure history and modifying variable, and c is an intercept term that allows the mortality rate for `unexposed` cohort to differ from that in the general population. The increased mortality (O/E=1.58; where O is observed and E is expected cases among collected death cases in the cohort) in the cohort, generally, somewhat lower ratios than one reflect the non-industrial character of the region, with the exception of lung cancer in man. The differences in the O/E ratios for lung cancer among the separate communities indicate that even in the situation of generally lower mortality, the dependence of lung cancer mortality on radon exposure cannot be excluded. 3 tabs., 6 refs.

Long-term impact of preeclampsia on maternal endometrial cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallum, Sara; Pinborg, Anja; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is mainly dependent on oestrogen exposure. Preeclampsia has shown to reduce oestrogen levels hence preeclampsia may affect later endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 523 Danish women with endometrial cancer and 52 299controls during...... 1978-2010. The association between preeclampsia and later endometrial cancer was evaluated overall and according to preeclampsia onset and type of endometrial cancer in conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed no overall association between preeclampsia and endometrial cancer risk...... (OR=1.11 (95% CI 0.68-1.81)). This was true for all endometrial cancer subtypes. In an analysis of preeclampsia onset, however, we report a markedly increased risk of endometrial cancer following early-onset preeclampsia (OR=2.64 (95% CI 1.29-5.38)). CONCLUSIONS: Although we report no obvious...

Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

Science.gov (United States)

Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Provides Added Value to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator for Patients With Estimated Risk of High-grade Prostate Cancer Less Than or Equal to 10.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eric H; Weaver, John K; Shetty, Anup S; Vetter, Joel M; Andriole, Gerald L; Strope, Seth A

2017-04-01

To determine the added value of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator. Between January 2012 and December 2015, 339 patients underwent prostate MRI prior to biopsy at our institution. MRI was considered positive if there was at least 1 Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System 4 or 5 MRI suspicious region. Logistic regression was used to develop 2 models: biopsy outcome as a function of the (1) Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator alone and (2) combined with MRI findings. When including all patients, the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial with and without MRI models performed similarly (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.74 and 0.78, P = .06). When restricting the cohort to patients with estimated risk of high-grade (Gleason ≥7) prostate cancer ≤10%, the model with MRI outperformed the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial alone model (AUC = 0.69 and 0.60, P = .01). Within this cohort of patients, there was no significant difference in discrimination between models for those with previous negative biopsy (AUC = 0.61 vs 0.63, P = .76), whereas there was a significant improvement in discrimination with the MRI model for biopsy-naïve patients (AUC = 0.72 vs 0.60, P = .01). The use of prostate MRI in addition to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator provides a significant improvement in clinical risk discrimination for patients with estimated risk of high-grade (Gleason ≥7) prostate cancer ≤10%. Prebiopsy prostate MRI should be strongly considered for these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel

2017-01-01

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic ...... risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management....

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Combination antiretroviral therapy and cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borges, Álvaro H

2017-01-01

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the newest research about the effects of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on cancer risk. RECENT FINDINGS: HIV+ persons are at increased risk of cancer. As this risk is higher for malignancies driven by viral and bacterial coinfections, classifying malignanci......ART initiation in reducing cancer risk, understand the relationship between long-term cART exposure and cancer incidence and assess whether adjuvant anti-inflammatory therapies can reduce cancer risk during treated HIV infection.......PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the newest research about the effects of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on cancer risk. RECENT FINDINGS: HIV+ persons are at increased risk of cancer. As this risk is higher for malignancies driven by viral and bacterial coinfections, classifying malignancies...... into infection-related and infection-unrelated has been an emerging trend. Cohorts have detected major reductions in the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) following cART initiation among immunosuppressed HIV+ persons. However, recent randomized data indicate that cART reduces risk...

Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1988-03-01

The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

Model linear absolute and relative risk estimates for cancer induced by ionizing radiation in Mexican cohort of occupationally exposed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, R.J.T.; Trovar, M.V.M; González, J.F.

2015-01-01

From the rate of natural mortality m s cancer (t) for every 100 thousand habitants, modeled by a fourth-degree polynomial function of the age data of the Mexican population (2008), and assuming: a) a relationship 1: 5 of cancer induced radiation respect to presented spontaneously, b) a size of initial cohort No = 100 k SOPs, c) a speed of H E = (2 ± 1) mSv / received by the SOPs from 18 to 65 years, d) a latency of 8 years for cancer induction after irradiation, e) a time tracking cohort to 75 years, f) and taking the coefficients absolute and relative risk BEIRs induction of cancer models II and VII (excluding leukemia); It determined: BEIR II for a total of 125 and 400 deaths from cancer for absolute and relative linear models respectively. For BEIR VII has a number of fatal cases of 345 and 927 deaths respectively for absolute and relative linear model cancer. [es

Long working hours and cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heikkila, Katriina; Nyberg, Solja T.; Madsen, Ida E. H.

2016-01-01

in 116 462 men and women who were free of cancer at baseline. Incident cancers were ascertained from national cancer, hospitalisation and death registers; weekly working hours were self-reported. Results: During median follow-up of 10.8 years, 4371 participants developed cancer (n colorectal cancer: 393......Background: Working longer than the maximum recommended hours is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, but the relationship of excess working hours with incident cancer is unclear. Methods: This multi-cohort study examined the association between working hours and cancer risk......; n lung cancer: 247; n breast cancer: 833; and n prostate cancer: 534). We found no clear evidence for an association between working hours and the overall cancer risk. Working hours were also unrelated the risk of incident colorectal, lung or prostate cancers. Working greater than or equal to55 h...

Contralateral breast cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unnithan, Jaya; Macklis, Roger M.

2001-01-01

The use of breast-conserving treatment approaches for breast cancer has now become a standard option for early stage disease. Numerous randomized studies have shown medical equivalence when mastectomy is compared to lumpectomy followed by radiotherapy for the local management of this common problem. With an increased emphasis on patient involvement in the therapeutic decision making process, it is important to identify and quantify any unforeseen risks of the conservation approach. One concern that has been raised is the question of radiation- related contralateral breast cancer after breast radiotherapy. Although most studies do not show statistically significant evidence that patients treated with breast radiotherapy are at increased risk of developing contralateral breast cancer when compared to control groups treated with mastectomy alone, there are clear data showing the amount of scattered radiation absorbed by the contralateral breast during a routine course of breast radiotherapy is considerable (several Gy) and is therefore within the range where one might be concerned about radiogenic contralateral tumors. While radiation related risks of contralateral breast cancer appear to be small enough to be statistically insignificant for the majority of patients, there may exist a smaller subset which, for genetic or environmental reasons, is at special risk for scatter related second tumors. If such a group could be predicted, it would seem appropriate to offer either special counselling or special prevention procedures aimed at mitigating this second tumor risk. The use of genetic testing, detailed analysis of breast cancer family history, and the identification of patients who acquired their first breast cancer at a very early age may all be candidate screening procedures useful in identifying such at- risk groups. Since some risk mitigation strategies are convenient and easy to utilize, it makes sense to follow the classic 'ALARA' (as low as reasonably

Increased risk of antidepressant use in childhood cancer survivors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Lasse Wegener; Winther, J.F.; Cederkvist, L

2015-01-01

to the National Prescription Drug Database, which worldwide is the oldest nationwide registry of prescription medication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for antidepressant use were estimated in a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on sex, with population comparisons as referents. RESULTS: Overall, childhood cancer......AIM: Childhood cancer survivors are at risk of both somatic and mental late effects, but large population-based studies of depression are lacking. METHODS: Risk of antidepressant use was evaluated in a population-based cohort of 5452 Danish children treated for cancer in 1975-2009 by linkage....... Increased HRs of 30-50% were seen for survivors of cancers of all main groups (haematological malignancies, central nervous system (CNS) and solid tumors); the highest risk was among children treated with haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1). Our data suggested that the risk...

Evidence that breast tissue stiffness is associated with risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, Norman F; Li, Qing; Melnichouk, Olga; Huszti, Ella; Martin, Lisa J; Gunasekara, Anoma; Mawdsley, Gord; Yaffe, Martin J; Minkin, Salomon

2014-01-01

Evidence from animal models shows that tissue stiffness increases the invasion and progression of cancers, including mammary cancer. We here use measurements of the volume and the projected area of the compressed breast during mammography to derive estimates of breast tissue stiffness and examine the relationship of stiffness to risk of breast cancer. Mammograms were used to measure the volume and projected areas of total and radiologically dense breast tissue in the unaffected breasts of 362 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer (cases) and 656 women of the same age who did not have breast cancer (controls). Measures of breast tissue volume and the projected area of the compressed breast during mammography were used to calculate the deformation of the breast during compression and, with the recorded compression force, to estimate the stiffness of breast tissue. Stiffness was compared in cases and controls, and associations with breast cancer risk examined after adjustment for other risk factors. After adjustment for percent mammographic density by area measurements, and other risk factors, our estimate of breast tissue stiffness was significantly associated with breast cancer (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.03, 1.43, p = 0.02) and improved breast cancer risk prediction in models with percent mammographic density, by both area and volume measurements. An estimate of breast tissue stiffness was associated with breast cancer risk and improved risk prediction based on mammographic measures and other risk factors. Stiffness may provide an additional mechanism by which breast tissue composition is associated with risk of breast cancer and merits examination using more direct methods of measurement.

Work stress and risk of cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heikkilä, Katriina; Nyberg, Solja T; Theorell, Töres

2013-01-01

To investigate whether work related stress, measured and defined as job strain, is associated with the overall risk of cancer and the risk of colorectal, lung, breast, or prostate cancers.......To investigate whether work related stress, measured and defined as job strain, is associated with the overall risk of cancer and the risk of colorectal, lung, breast, or prostate cancers....

Joint analysis of site-specific cancer risks for the atomic bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pierce, D.A.; Preston, D.L.

1993-01-01

Statistical methods are presented for joint analysis of site-specific cancer risks for the atomic-bomb survivors. Previous analyses of these data, aside from those on leukemia, have been made either without regard to cancer type, or separately for types or classes of cancers. Clearly, analyses without regard to cancer type are less than satisfactory. The primary advantages of joint, rather than separate, analyses are that (1) models can be fitted with parameters common to cancer types, which can allow more-precise estimation of effects of interest, (2) significance tests can be used to compare type-specific risks, and (3) a clearer understanding may be obtained of risk-modification factors such as sex, age at exposure, and time since exposure. Joint analysis is straightforward, entailing primarily the incorporation of another factor for cancer type in the usual cross-tabulation of the data for analysis. The use of these methods is illustrated in an analysis of the three categories of cancer studied by the fifth Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR V): digestive, respiratory, and other solid tumors. Based on this analysis, some criticism is made of the BEIR V-preferred models. Since the proposed methods are applicable to models for either relative or absolute risks, some comments on the use of explicit models for the absolute excess risk are also given. Although some of the gains from joint analysis are apparent from the results here, it will be important to use these methods with a more suitable choice of cancer classes and for cancer incidence data in which the diagnoses are more accurate. (author)

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and risk of endometrial cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Verdoodt, Freija; Friis, Søren; Dehlendorff, Christian

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use has been linked to a reduction in the risk of several cancer types. For endometrial cancer, however, results have been inconsistent. To summarize the available evidence on the risk of endometrial cancer associated with use of aspirin...... a random effects model. RESULTS: Six case-control and seven cohort studies were found eligible for our meta-analysis. We observed risk reductions in endometrial cancer associated with regular use of aspirin (case-control: 11%, cohort: 8%) and NA-NSAIDs (case-control: 9%, cohort: 6%), compared to non...

A statistical regression model for the estimation of acrylamide concentrations in French fries for excess lifetime cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ming-Jen; Hsu, Hui-Tsung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Ju, Wei-Yuan

2012-10-01

Human exposure to acrylamide (AA) through consumption of French fries and other foods has been recognized as a potential health concern. Here, we used a statistical non-linear regression model, based on the two most influential factors, cooking temperature and time, to estimate AA concentrations in French fries. The R(2) of the predictive model is 0.83, suggesting the developed model was significant and valid. Based on French fry intake survey data conducted in this study and eight frying temperature-time schemes which can produce tasty and visually appealing French fries, the Monte Carlo simulation results showed that if AA concentration is higher than 168 ppb, the estimated cancer risk for adolescents aged 13-18 years in Taichung City would be already higher than the target excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and that by taking into account this limited life span only. In order to reduce the cancer risk associated with AA intake, the AA levels in French fries might have to be reduced even further if the epidemiological observations are valid. Our mathematical model can serve as basis for further investigations on ELCR including different life stages and behavior and population groups. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer risks: Strategies for elimination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bannasch, P.

1987-01-01

This book deals with the possibilities for identifying and eliminating cancer risk factors. The current state of knowledge on the detection, assessment and elimination of chemical, physical (radiation), and biological (viruses) risk factors are comprehensively presented in 15 contributions. Chemical risk factors resulting from smoking and environmental contamination are given special attention. The coverage of cancer risks by radiation includes some of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Finally, the discussion of the possible risks that certain viruses hold for cancer in man is intended to further the development of vaccinations against these viral infections. The information is directed not only at specialists, but also at a wider interested audience. Its primary aim is to convey established findings that are already being used for cancer prevention. Furthermore, the book aims to promote more intense research in the field of primary cancer prevention. Contents: General aspects; chemical carcinogens: Risk assessment; chemical carcinogens: Primary prevention; physical carcinogens - Oncogenic viruses and subject index

Breast Cancer Risk in American Women

Science.gov (United States)

... of Breast & Gynecologic Cancers Breast Cancer Screening Research Breast Cancer Risk in American Women On This Page What ... risk of developing the disease. Personal history of breast cancer : Women who have had breast cancer are more ...

Diabetes, insulin and cancer risk

OpenAIRE

Yang, Xi-Lin; Chan, Juliana CN

2012-01-01

There is a consensus that both type 1 and type 2 diabetes are associated with a spectrum of cancers but the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. On the other hand, there are ongoing debates about the risk association of insulin use with cancer. We have briefly reviewed recent related research on exploration of risk factors for cancer and pharmacoepidemiological investigations into drug use in diabetes on the risk of cancer, as well as the current understanding of metabolic pathways impl...

Development and external multicenter validation of Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium prostate cancer risk calculator for initial prostate biopsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Rui; Xie, Liping; Xue, Wei; Ye, Zhangqun; Ma, Lulin; Gao, Xu; Ren, Shancheng; Wang, Fubo; Zhao, Lin; Xu, Chuanliang; Sun, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Substantial differences exist in the relationship of prostate cancer (PCa) detection rate and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level between Western and Asian populations. Classic Western risk calculators, European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator, were shown to be not applicable in Asian populations. We aimed to develop and validate a risk calculator for predicting the probability of PCa and high-grade PCa (defined as Gleason Score sum 7 or higher) at initial prostate biopsy in Chinese men. Urology outpatients who underwent initial prostate biopsy according to the inclusion criteria were included. The multivariate logistic regression-based Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium Risk Calculator (CPCC-RC) was constructed with cases from 2 hospitals in Shanghai. Discriminative ability, calibration and decision curve analysis were externally validated in 3 CPCC member hospitals. Of the 1,835 patients involved, PCa was identified in 338/924 (36.6%) and 294/911 (32.3%) men in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that 5 predictors (age, logPSA, logPV, free PSA ratio, and digital rectal examination) were associated with PCa (Model 1) or high-grade PCa (Model 2), respectively. The area under the curve of Model 1 and Model 2 was 0.801 (95% CI: 0.771-0.831) and 0.826 (95% CI: 0.796-0.857), respectively. Both models illustrated good calibration and substantial improvement in decision curve analyses than any single predictors at all threshold probabilities. Higher predicting accuracy, better calibration, and greater clinical benefit were achieved by CPCC-RC, compared with European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in predicting PCa. CPCC-RC performed well in discrimination and calibration and decision curve analysis in external validation compared

Benign breast disease and risk of thyroid cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Juhua; Hendryx, Michael; Nassir, Rami; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Lane, Dorothy; Margolis, Karen L

2017-09-01

It has been suggested that breast and thyroid diseases may be linked. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between benign breast disease and subsequent risk of thyroid cancer. Postmenopausal women (n = 133,875) aged 50-79 years were followed up for a mean of 14 years. Benign breast disease was defined by history of biopsy. Incident thyroid cancer cases were confirmed by medical record review. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios. There were 370 incident thyroid cancer cases during the follow-up period. Compared to women without BBD, women with BBD had a significant increased risk of thyroid cancer after adjusting for potential confounders (HR 1.38 95% CI 1.10-1.73), especially for women with more than two biopsies (HR 1.59 95% CI 1.10-2.26). There were no significant differences in thyroid tumor size, stage or histologic types between women with and without BBD. Our large prospective study observed that postmenopausal women with BBD had an increased risk for thyroid cancer compared with women without BBD. A more detailed investigation of thyroid cancer risk according to different subtypes of benign breast disease is needed to better understand the association observed between thyroid and benign breast diseases.

Plasma carotenoids and breast cancer risk in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ying; Gapstur, Susan M; Gaudet, Mia M; Furtado, Jeremy D; Campos, Hannia; McCullough, Marjorie L

2015-09-01

Several circulating carotenoids have been inversely associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk in large cohort studies and a pooled analysis. Whether associations differ by tumor or participant characteristics remains unclear. We investigated the associations of plasma carotenoids with postmenopausal breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status, tumor stage, smoking status, and body mass index, in a case-control study nested in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. A total of 496 invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed between blood draw in 1998-2001 and June 30, 2007 and matched 1:1 with controls on race, birth date, and blood draw date were included. Multivariable-adjusted conditional and unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Plasma α-carotene above the lowest quartile was associated with significant 40-43% lower risk of invasive breast cancer risk (fourth vs. first quartile OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.87, P-trend = 0.037) after adjustment for multiple covariates. This inverse association was strengthened after further adjustment for other plasma carotenoids and total fruit and vegetable intake (fourth vs. first quartile OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.85, P-trend = 0.041). Other plasma carotenoids or total carotenoids were not associated with breast cancer risk. The inverse association of α-carotene with breast cancer remained for ER+, but not for ER- tumors, although test for heterogeneity was not statistically significant (P-heterogeneity = 0.49). These results suggest that higher plasma α-carotene is associated with lower risk of invasive breast cancer.

Cancer stem cell marker Musashi-1 rs2522137 genotype is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Wang

Full Text Available Gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs have been extensively studied in association with development and prognosis of various malignancies. However, the potential role of genetic polymorphisms of cancer stem cell (CSC marker genes with respect to cancer risk has not been examined. We conducted a case-control study involving a total of 1000 subjects (500 lung cancer patients and 500 age-matched cancer-free controls from northeastern China. Lung cancer risk was analyzed in a logistic regression model in association with genotypes of four lung CSC marker genes (CD133, ALDH1, Musashi-1, and EpCAM. Using univariate analysis, the Musashi-1 rs2522137 GG genotype was found to be associated with a higher incidence of lung cancer compared with the TT genotype. No significant associations were observed for gene variants of CD133, ALDH1, or EpCAM. In multivariate analysis, Musashi-1 rs2522137 was still significantly associated with lung cancer when environmental and lifestyle factors were incorporated in the model, including lower BMI; family history of cancer; prior diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, or pulmonary tuberculosis; occupational exposure to pesticide; occupational exposure to gasoline or diesel fuel; heavier smoking; and exposure to heavy cooking emissions. The value of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC was 0.7686. To our knowledge, this is the first report to show an association between a Musashi-1 genotype and lung cancer risk. Further, the prediction model in this study may be useful in determining individuals with high risk of lung cancer.

The Tripartite Model of Risk Perception (TRIRISK): Distinguishing Deliberative, Affective, and Experiential Components of Perceived Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Persoskie, Alexander; Avishai-Yitshak, Aya; Sheeran, Paschal

2016-10-01

Although risk perception is a key predictor in health behavior theories, current conceptions of risk comprise only one (deliberative) or two (deliberative vs. affective/experiential) dimensions. This research tested a tripartite model that distinguishes among deliberative, affective, and experiential components of risk perception. In two studies, and in relation to three common diseases (cancer, heart disease, diabetes), we used confirmatory factor analyses to examine the factor structure of the tripartite risk perception (TRIRISK) model and compared the fit of the TRIRISK model to dual-factor and single-factor models. In a third study, we assessed concurrent validity by examining the impact of cancer diagnosis on (a) levels of deliberative, affective, and experiential risk perception, and (b) the strength of relations among risk components, and tested predictive validity by assessing relations with behavioral intentions to prevent cancer. The tripartite factor structure was supported, producing better model fit across diseases (studies 1 and 2). Inter-correlations among the components were significantly smaller among participants who had been diagnosed with cancer, suggesting that affected populations make finer-grained distinctions among risk perceptions (study 3). Moreover, all three risk perception components predicted unique variance in intentions to engage in preventive behavior (study 3). The TRIRISK model offers both a novel conceptualization of health-related risk perceptions, and new measures that enhance predictive validity beyond that engendered by unidimensional and bidimensional models. The present findings have implications for the ways in which risk perceptions are targeted in health behavior change interventions, health communications, and decision aids.

Risk of skin cancer following tamoxifen treatment in more than 16,000 breast cancer patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Præstegaard, Camilla; Kjaer, Susanne K.; Andersson, Michael

2016-01-01

Background: Women with breast cancer are at increased risk of developing skin cancer. Little is known about how tamoxifen affects this risk. We aimed to investigate whether tamoxifen treatment following breast cancer is associated with skin cancer. Methods: A cohort consisting of 44,589 women...... diagnosed with breast cancer during 1977–2007 from the nationwide clinical database of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group, was followed for a primary skin cancer [basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) or melanoma] in the Danish Cancer Registry supplemented by data on BCC and SCC...... from the Danish Pathology Register. We investigated incidence of skin cancer among 16,214 women treated with tamoxifen compared to 28,375 women not treated with tamoxifen by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) in Cox regression models. Results: Tamoxifen users were followed for a median of 2...

Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E

2017-01-01

general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score......, as it is likely more sensitive in detecting associations with risks of other endpoints than breast cancer. RESULTS: Breast cancer incidence in the 19,010 women was increased across allele sum quintiles (log-rank trend test; p=1*10(-12)), but not incidence of other cancers (p=0.41). Age- and study-adjusted hazard...... ratio for the 5(th) vs. 1(st) allele sum quintile was 1.82(95% confidence interval;1.53-2.18). Corresponding hazard ratios per allele were 1.04(1.03-1.05) and 1.05(1.02-1.08) for breast cancer incidence and mortality, similar across risk factors. In 50-year old women, the starting age for screening...

Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Maureen E

2008-01-01

To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

2013-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

2013-03-15

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

Cancer risk from inorganics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swierenga, S.H.; Gilman, J.P.; McLean, J.R.

1987-01-01

Inorganic metals and minerals for which there is evidence of carcinogenicity are identified. The risk of cancer from contact with them in the work place, the general environment, and under conditions of clinical (medical) exposure is discussed. The evidence indicates that minerals and metals most often influence cancer development through their action as cocarcinogens. The relationship between the physical form of mineral fibers, smoking and carcinogenic risk is emphasized. Metals are categorized as established (As, Be, Cr, Ni), suspected (Cd, Pb) and possible carcinogens, based on the existing in vitro, animal experimental and human epidemiological data. Cancer risk and possible modes of action of elements in each class are discussed. Views on mechanisms that may be responsible for the carcinogenicity of metals are updated and analysed. Some specific examples of cancer risks associated with the clinical use of potentially carcinogenic metals and from radioactive pharmaceuticals used in therapy and diagnosis are presented. Questions are raised as to the effectiveness of conventional dosimetry in accurately measuring risk from radiopharmaceuticals. 302 references

Metabolic Risk Profile and Cancer in Korean Men and Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Seulki; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Kim, Dongwoo; Kim, A-Rim; Kim, Eun-Jung; Seo, Hye-Young

2016-05-01

Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Associations between metabolic syndrome and several types of cancer have recently been documented. We analyzed the sample cohort data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2002, with a follow-up period extending to 2013. The cohort data included 99 565 individuals who participated in the health examination program and whose data were therefore present in the cohort database. The metabolic risk profile of each participant was assessed based on obesity, high serum glucose and total cholesterol levels, and high blood pressure. The occurrence of cancer was identified using Korean National Health Insurance claims data. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age group, smoking status, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. A total of 5937 cases of cancer occurred during a mean follow-up period of 10.4 years. In men with a high-risk metabolic profile, the risk of colon cancer was elevated (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.71). In women, a high-risk metabolic profile was associated with a significantly increased risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.42). Non-significantly increased risks were observed in men for pharynx, larynx, rectum, and kidney cancer, and in women for colon, liver, breast, and ovarian cancer. The findings of this study support the previously suggested association between metabolic syndrome and the risk of several cancers. A high-risk metabolic profile may be an important risk factor for colon cancer in Korean men and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in Korean women.

Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

... turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment Past Issues / Summer 2013 Table ... Articles Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone / Skin Cancer: Biology, Risk Factors & Treatment / Timely Healthcare Checkup Catches Melanoma ...

Analysis of radon-induced lung cancer risk by a stochastic state-vector model of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford-Brown, Douglas J.; Hofmann, Werner

2002-01-01

A biologically based state-vector model (SVM) of radiation carcinogenesis has been extended to incorporate stochasticity of cellular transitions and specific in vivo irradiation conditions in the lungs. Dose-rate-dependent cellular transitions related to the formation of double-stranded DNA breaks, repair of breaks, interactions (translocations) between breaks, fixation of breaks, cellular inactivation, stimulated mitosis and promotion through loss of intercellular communication are simulated by Monte Carlo methods. The stochastic SVM has been applied to the analysis of lung cancer incidence in uranium miners exposed to alpha-emitting radon progeny. When incorporating in vivo features of cell differentiation, stimulated cell division and heterogeneity of cellular doses into the model, excellent agreement between epidemiological data and modelling results could be obtained. At low doses, the model predicts a non-linear dose-response relationship; e.g., computed lung cancer risk at 20 WLM is about half of current lung cancer estimates based on the linear hypothesis. The model also predicts a slight dose rate effect; e.g., at a cumulative exposure of 20 WLM, calculated lung cancer incidence for an exposure rate 0.27 WLM/year (assuming an exposure time of 73 years) is smaller by a factor of 1.2 than that for an exposure rate of 10 WLM/year. (author)

Acute Pancreatitis and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Nationwide Matched-cohort Study in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegård, Jakob; Cronin Fenton, Deirdre; Heide-Jørgensen, Uffe

2018-01-01

. Pancreatic cancer risk was expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs, calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Cox models were stratified by age, sex, and year of pancreatitis diagnosis and adjusted for alcohol- and smoking-related conditions, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. Results We...... included 41,669 patients diagnosed with incident acute pancreatitis and 208,340 comparison individuals. Patients with acute pancreatitis had an increased risk of pancreatic cancer compared with the age- and sex-matched general population throughout the follow-up period. The risk decreased over time......Background & Aims Acute pancreatitis may be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. However, findings from studies on this association are conflicting. We investigated the association between acute pancreatitis and increased risk of pancreatic cancer. Methods We conducted a nationwide, population...

Understanding intention to undergo colonoscopy among intermediate-risk siblings of colorectal cancer patients: a test of a mediational model.

Science.gov (United States)

Manne, Sharon; Markowitz, Arnold; Winawer, Sidney; Guillem, Jose; Meropol, Neal J; Haller, Daniel; Jandorf, Lina; Rakowski, William; Babb, James; Duncan, Terry

2003-01-01

There is a need for research to identify factors influencing intentions to undergo colorectal cancer (CRC) screening among family members at risk for CRC. This study tested a mediational model primarily guided by Ronis' elaboration of the Health Belief Model in predicting intention to have colorectal cancer screening among siblings of individuals diagnosed with colorectal cancer prior to age 56 years. Data were collected from 534 siblings of individuals diagnosed with CRC. A baseline survey was administered by telephone. Measures included perceived susceptibility, CRC severity, physician and family support for CRC screening, cancer-specific distress, the closeness of the relationship with the affected sibling, and future intention to have a colonoscopy. Participant age, gender, and number of prior colonoscopies, as well as the stage of the affected patient's cancer and time from the patient's diagnosis to the interview, were controlled for in the analyses. The proposed model was not a good fit to the data. A respecified model was fit to the data. In this model, physician support, family support, and sibling closeness were significantly associated with both perceived benefits and barriers. Perceived severity was associated with barriers. Benefits and barriers, as well as cancer-specific distress, were directly associated with colonoscopy intentions. Results were consistent with a mediational role for benefits and barriers in the associations of sibling closeness and with a mediational role for barriers in the association between perceived severity and colonoscopy intentions. Family and physician support impacted intentions both directly and indirectly through effects on benefits and barriers. Perceived risk was not associated with benefits, barriers, or colonoscopy intentions. Intervention efforts to increase colonoscopy intentions may benefit from targeting family influences, particularly the affected proband in the family, as well as physician influence, cancer

Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

Science.gov (United States)

Aktipis, Athena

2016-01-01

In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Metabolic Syndrome and Breast Cancer Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Wani, Burhan; Aziz, Shiekh Aejaz; Ganaie, Mohammad Ashraf; Mir, Mohammad Hussain

2017-01-01

The study was meant to estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in patients with breast cancer and to establish its role as an independent risk factor on occurrence of breast cancer. Fifty women aged between 40 and 80 years with breast cancer and fifty controls of similar age were assessed for metabolic syndrome prevalence and breast cancer risk factors, including age at menarche, reproductive status, live births, breastfeeding, and family history of breast cancer, age at diagnosis of breast cancer, body mass index, and metabolic syndrome parameters. Metabolic syndrome prevalence was found in 40.0% of breast cancer patients, and 18.0% of those in control group ( P = 0.02). An independent and positive association was seen between metabolic syndrome and breast cancer risk (odds ratio = 3.037; 95% confidence interval 1.214-7.597). Metabolic syndrome is more prevalent in breast cancer patients and is an independent risk factor for breast cancer.

The influence of narrative risk communication on feelings of cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein; Lechner, Lilian

2013-05-01

Evidence is accumulating for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours, but best practices for influencing these feelings are limited. The aim of this experimental study was to compare the effects of narrative and non-narrative risk communication about sunbed use on ease of imagination and feelings of cancer risk. A total of 233 female sunbed users in the general Dutch population were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a narrative message (i.e., personal testimonial), a non-narrative cognitive message (i.e., factual risk information using cognitive-laden words), or a non-narrative affective message (i.e., factual risk information using affective-laden words). Ease of imagination and feelings of risk were assessed directly after the risk information was given (T1). Three weeks after the baseline session, feelings of risk were measured again (T2). The results revealed that sunbed users who were exposed to narrative risk information could better imagine themselves developing skin cancer and reported higher feelings of skin cancer risk at T1. Moreover, ease of imagination mediated the effects of message type on feelings of risk at T1 and T2. The findings provide support for the effects of narrative risk communication in influencing feelings of cancer risk through ease of imagination. Cancer prevention programmes may therefore benefit from including narrative risk information. Future research is important to investigate other mechanisms of narrative information and their most effective content and format. What is already known on this subject? Evidence is growing for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining cancer preventive behaviours. Narratives have increasingly been considered as an effective format for persuasive risk messages and studies have shown narrative risk communication to be effective in influencing cognitive risk beliefs. What does this study add? Increasing understanding of how feelings of cancer

Myeloperoxidase polymorphism, menopausal status, and breast cancer risk: an update meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Qin

Full Text Available Myeloperoxidase (MPO is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.94, p = 0.027. Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.93, p = 0.025. We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women's risk of developing breast cancer.

Risk of treatment-related esophageal cancer among breast cancer survivors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morton, L M; Gilbert, E S; Hall, P

2012-01-01

Radiotherapy for breast cancer may expose the esophagus to ionizing radiation, but no study has evaluated esophageal cancer risk after breast cancer associated with radiation dose or systemic therapy use.......Radiotherapy for breast cancer may expose the esophagus to ionizing radiation, but no study has evaluated esophageal cancer risk after breast cancer associated with radiation dose or systemic therapy use....

Family history of prostate and colorectal cancer and risk of colorectal cancer in the Women's health initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Beebe-Dimmer, Jennifer L; Yee, Cecilia; Paskett, Electra; Schwartz, Ann G; Lane, Dorothy; Palmer, Nynikka R A; Bock, Cathryn H; Nassir, Rami; Simon, Michael S

2017-12-13

Evidence suggests that risk of colorectal and prostate cancer is increased among those with a family history of the same disease, particularly among first-degree relatives. However, the aggregation of colorectal and prostate cancer within families has not been well investigated. Analyses were conducted among participants of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) observational cohort, free of cancer at the baseline examination. Subjects were followed for colorectal cancer through August 31st, 2009. A Cox-proportional hazards regression modeling approach was used to estimate risk of colorectal cancer associated with a family history of prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and both cancers among first-degree relatives of all participants and stratified by race (African American vs. White). Of 75,999 eligible participants, there were 1122 colorectal cancer cases diagnosed over the study period. A family history of prostate cancer alone was not associated with an increase in colorectal cancer risk after adjustment for confounders (aHR =0.94; 95% CI =0.76, 1.15). Separate analysis examining the joint impact, a family history of both colorectal and prostate cancer was associated with an almost 50% increase in colorectal cancer risk (aHR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.04, 2.10), but similar to those with a family history of colorectal cancer only (95% CI = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.11, 1.54). Our findings suggest risk of colorectal cancer is increased similarly among women with colorectal cancer only and among those with both colorectal and prostate cancer diagnosed among first-degree family members. Future studies are needed to determine the relative contribution of genes and shared environment to the risk of both cancers.

Bricklayers and lung cancer risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, Jan

2014-01-01

The article ‘Lung cancer risk among bricklayers in a pooled analysis of case–control studies’ in the International Journal of Cancer publishes findings of an epidemiological study (in the frame of a SYNERGY-project) dedicated to the lung cancer risk among bricklayers. The authors conclude that a

Maternal lung cancer and testicular cancer risk in the offspring.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaijser, Magnus; Akre, Olof; Cnattingius, Sven; Ekbom, Anders

2003-07-01

It has been hypothesized that smoking during pregnancy could increase the offspring's risk for testicular cancer. This hypothesis is indirectly supported by both ecological studies and studies of cancer aggregations within families. However, results from analytical epidemiological studies are not consistent, possibly due to methodological difficulties. To further study the association between smoking during pregnancy and testicular cancer, we did a population-based cohort study on cancer risk among offspring of women diagnosed with lung cancer. Through the use of the Swedish Cancer Register and the Swedish Second-Generation Register, we identified 8,430 women who developed lung cancer between 1958 and 1997 and delivered sons between 1941 and 1979. Cancer cases among the male offspring were then identified through the Swedish Cancer Register. Standardized incidence ratios were computed, using 95% confidence intervals. We identified 12,592 male offspring of mothers with a subsequent diagnosis of lung cancer, and there were 40 cases of testicular cancer (standardized incidence ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.58). The association was independent of maternal lung cancer subtype, and the risk of testicular cancer increased stepwise with decreasing time interval between birth and maternal lung cancer diagnosis. Our results support the hypothesis that exposure to cigarette smoking in utero increases the risk of testicular cancer.

Lung cancer attributable to indoor radon exposure in France using different risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catelinois, O.C.; Laurier, D.L.; Rogel, A.R.; Billon, S.B.; Tirmarche, M.T.; Hemon, Dh.; Verger, P.V.

2006-01-01

Full text of publication follows: Radon exposure is omnipresent for the general public, but at variable levels, because radon mainly comes from granitic and volcanic subs oils as well as from certain construction materials. Inhalation of radon is the main source of exposure to radioactivity in the general population of most countries. In 1988, the International Agency for Research on Cancer declared radon to be carcinogenic for humans (lung cancer): radon is classed in the group 1. The exposure of the overall general population to a carcinogenic component led scientists to assess the lung cancer risk associated to indoor radon. The aim of this work is to provide the first lung cancer risk assessment associated with indoor radon exposure in France, using all available epidemiological results and performing an uncertainty analysis. The number of lung cancer deaths potentially associated with radon in houses is estimated for the year 1999 according to several dose-response relationships which come from either cohorts of miners or joint analysis of residential case-controls studies. The variability of indoor radon exposure in France and uncertainties related to each of the dose-response relationships are considered. The assessment of lung cancer risk associated with domestic radon exposure considers 10 dose-response relationships resulting from miners cohorts and case-control studies in the general population. A critical review of available data on smoking habits has been performed and allowed to consider the interaction between radon and tobacco. The exposure data come from measurements campaigns carried out since the beginning of the 1980's by the Institute for Radiation protection and Nuclear Safety and the Health General Directory in France. The French lung cancer mortality data are provided by the INSERM. Estimates of the number of attributable cancers are carried out for the whole country, stratified by 8 large regions and b y 96 departments for the year 1999

Arsenic metabolism and cancer risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamboa-Loira, Brenda; Cebrián, Mariano E; Franco-Marina, Francisco; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

2017-07-01

To describe the studies that have reported association measures between risk of cancer and the percentage distribution of urinary inorganic arsenic (iAs) metabolites by anatomical site, in non-ecological epidemiological studies. Studies were identified in the PubMed database in the period from 1990 to 2015. Inclusion criteria were: non-ecological epidemiological study, with histologically confirmed cancer cases, reporting the percentage distribution of inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) metabolites, as well as association measures with confidence intervals (CI) between cancer and %iAs and/or %MMA and/or %DMA. A descriptive meta-analysis was performed by the method of the inverse of the variance for the fixed effects model and the DerSimonian and Laird's method for the random effects model. Heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and stratifying for epidemiological design and total As in urine. The possibility of publication bias was assessed through Begg's test. A total of 13 eligible studies were found, most of them were performed in Taiwan and focused on skin and bladder cancer. The positive association between %MMA and various types of cancer was consistent, in contrast to the negative relationship between %DMA and cancer that was inconsistent. The summary risk of bladder (OR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.26, n=4 studies) and lung (OR=2.44; 95% CI: 1.57, 3.80, n=2 studies) cancer increased significantly with increasing %MMA, without statistical heterogeneity. In contrast, lung cancer risk was inversely related to %DMA (OR=0.58; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.93, n=2 studies), also without significant heterogeneity. These results were similar after stratifying by epidemiological design and total As in urine. No evidence of publication bias was found. These findings provide additional support that methylation needs to be taken into account when assessing the potential iAs carcinogenicity risk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Industrial risk factors for colorectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lashner, B.A.; Epstein, S.S.

1990-01-01

Colorectal cancer is the second most common malignancy in the United States, and its incidence rates have sharply increased recently, especially in males. Industrial exposures, both occupational and environmental, are important colorectal cancer risk factors that are generally unrecognized by clinicians. Migration studies have documented that colorectal cancer is strongly associated with environmental risk factors. The causal role of occupational exposures is evidenced by a substantial literature associating specific work practices with increased colorectal cancer risks. Industrially related environmental exposures, including polluted drinking water and ionizing radiation, have also been associated with excess risks. Currently, there is a tendency to attribute colorectal cancer, largely or exclusively, to dietary and other lifestyle factors, thus neglecting these industrially related effects. Concerted efforts are needed to recognize the causal role of industrial risk factors and to encourage government and industry to reduce carcinogenic exposures. Furthermore, cost-effective screening programs for high-risk population groups are critically needed to further reduce deaths from colorectal cancer. 143 references

An etiologic prediction model incorporating biomarkers to predict the bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines: a pilot study

OpenAIRE

Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Carta, Angela; Arici, Cecilia; Pavanello, Sofia; Porru, Stefano

2017-01-01

Background No etiological prediction model incorporating biomarkers is available to predict bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines. Methods Cases were 199 bladder cancer patients. Clinical, laboratory and genetic data were predictors in logistic regression models (full and short) in which the dependent variable was 1 for 15 patients with aromatic amines related bladder cancer and 0 otherwise. The receiver operating characteristics approach was adopted; th...

Obesity, physical activity and cancer risks: Results from the Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR).

Science.gov (United States)

Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini

2017-04-01

Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m 2 ) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (risk of developing any cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMIrisks of CRC, UC and BC. In particular, the highest level of PA (versus nil activity) was associated with reduced risks of CRC (OR=0.60;CI:0.44-0.84) and UC (OR=0.47;CI:0.27-0.80). Reduced risks of BC were associated with low (OR=0.66;CI:0.51-0.86) and moderate (OR=0.72;CI:0.57-0.91) levels of PA. There was no association between PA levels and cancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Upper and Lower Urinary Tract Cancer Death in a Japanese Population: Findings from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk (JACC Study).

Science.gov (United States)

Washio, Masakazu; Mori, Mitsuru; Mikami, Kazuya; Miki, Tsuneharu; Watanabe, Yoshiyuki; Nakao, Masahiro; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Suzuki, Koji; Ozasa, Kotaro; Wakai, Kenji; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2016-01-01

The incidence of bladder cancer is lower in Asian than in Western countries. However, the crude incidence and mortality of bladder cancer have recently increased in Japan because of the increased number of senior citizens. We have already reported risk factors for urothelial cancer in a large populationbased cohort study in Japan (JACC study). However, we did not evaluate the cancer risk in the upper and lower urinary tract separately in our previous study. Here we evaluated the risk of cancer death in the upper and lower urinary tracts, separately, using the database of the JACC study. The analytic cohort included 46,395 males and 64,190 females aged 40 to 79 years old. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Current smoking increased the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths. A history of kidney disease was associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer death, even after controlling for age, sex and smoking status. The present study confirmed that current smoking increases the risk of both upper and lower urinary tract cancer deaths and indicated the possibility that a history of kidney disease may be a risk factor for bladder cancer death in the Japanese population.

Estimating cancer risk from outdoor concentrations of hazardous air pollutants in 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodruff, T.J.; Caldwell, J.; Cogliano, V.J.; Axelrad, D.A.

2000-03-01

A public health concern regarding hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) is their potential to cause cancer. It has been difficult to assess potential cancer risks from HAPs, due primarily to lack of ambient concentration data for the general population. The Environmental Protection Agency's Cumulative Exposure Project modeled 1990 outdoor concentrations of HAPs across the United States, which were combined with inhalation unit risk estimates to estimate the potential increase in excess cancer risk for individual carcinogenic HAPs. These were summed3d to provide an estimate of cancer risk from multiple HAPs. The analysis estimates a median excess cancer risk of 18 lifetime cancer cases per 100,000 people for all HAP concentrations. About 75% of estimated cancer risk was attributable to exposure to polycyclic organic matter, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and chromium. Consideration of some specific uncertainties, including underestimation of ambient concentrations, combining upper 95% confidence bound potency estimates, and changes to potency estimates, found that cancer risk may be underestimated by 15% or overestimated by 40--50%. Other unanalyzed uncertainties could make these under- or overestimates larger. This analysis used 1990 estimates of concentrations and can be used to track progress toward reducing cancer risk to the general population.

Risks of Skin Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... factors increase or decrease the risk of skin cancer. Skin cancer is a disease in which malignant (cancer) ... following PDQ summaries for more information about skin cancer: Skin Cancer Prevention Skin Cancer Treatment Melanoma Treatment Genetics ...

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening

OpenAIRE

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Cheung, Li C.; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E.; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2015-01-01

New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interv...

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joosten, A; Bochud, F; Moeckli, R

2014-01-01

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable

Myastenia and risk of cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Emil Arnspang; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between having non-thymoma myasthenia and the risk of extra-thymic cancer in a population-based setting. METHODS: A nationwide case-control study was conducted in Denmark based on medical registries. The study included all cases with a first time...... diagnosis of cancer during 2000-2009. Each case was matched by birth year and gender with eight population controls using risk set sampling. Subjects with myasthenia were identified through a validated register-based algorithm. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute crude and adjusted odds...... risk of overall cancer (OR 1.1; 95% CI 0.9-1.4). Adjusted ORs for major cancer sites were also close to unity, whereas an elevated risk of lymphomas was observed (OR 2.0; 95% CI 0.8-5.5). Early-onset myasthenia was associated with a slightly increased OR for overall cancer (1.5; 95% CI 1...

Comparative Risk Predictions of Second Cancers After Carbon-Ion Therapy Versus Proton Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eley, John G., E-mail: jeley@som.umaryland.edu [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Friedrich, Thomas [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Homann, Kenneth L.; Howell, Rebecca M. [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); University of Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, Texas (United States); Scholz, Michael; Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Newhauser, Wayne D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States); Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (United States)

2016-05-01

Purpose: This work proposes a theoretical framework that enables comparative risk predictions for second cancer incidence after particle beam therapy for different ion species for individual patients, accounting for differences in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) for the competing processes of tumor initiation and cell inactivation. Our working hypothesis was that use of carbon-ion therapy instead of proton therapy would show a difference in the predicted risk of second cancer incidence in the breast for a sample of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Methods and Materials: We generated biologic treatment plans and calculated relative predicted risks of second cancer in the breast by using two proposed methods: a full model derived from the linear quadratic model and a simpler linear-no-threshold model. Results: For our reference calculation, we found the predicted risk of breast cancer incidence for carbon-ion plans-to-proton plan ratio, , to be 0.75 ± 0.07 but not significantly smaller than 1 (P=.180). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that second cancer risks are, on average, comparable between proton therapy and carbon-ion therapy.

Hereditary gynaecologic cancers in Nepal: a proposed model of care to serve high risk populations in developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Pokharel, Hanoon P; Hacker, Neville F; Andrews, Lesley

2017-01-01

Endometrial, ovarian and breast cancers are paradigms for global health disparity. Women living in the developing world continue to present in later stages of disease and have fewer options for treatment than those in developed countries. Risk reducing surgery is of proven benefit for women at high risk of gynaecological cancer. There is no specific model for identification and management of such women in the developing world. We have integrated data from our published audit of a major gynaecological oncology centre at Royal Hospital for Women in Australia, with data from our survey and a focus group discussion of Nepalese gynaecological health care professionals regarding genetic testing, and findings from the literature. These data have been used to identify current barriers to multidisciplinary gynaecological oncology care in developing nations, and to develop a model to integrate hereditary cancer services into cancer care in Nepal, as a paradigm for other developing nations. The ability to identify women with hereditary gynaecological cancer in developing nations is influenced by their late presentation (if active management is declined or not appropriate), limited access to specialised services and cultural and financial barriers. In order to include genetic assessment in multidisciplinary gynaecological cancer care, education needs to be provided to all levels of health care providers to enable reporting of family history, and appropriate ordering of investigations. Training of genetic counsellors is needed to assist in the interpretation of results and extending care to unaffected at-risk relatives. Novel approaches will be required to overcome geographic and financial barriers, including mainstreaming of genetic testing, telephone counselling, use of mouth swabs and utilisation of international laboratories. Women in Nepal have yet to receive benefits from the advances in early cancer diagnosis and management. There is a potential of extending the benefits

Association of OPN rs11730582 polymorphism with cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

He LL

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Lanlan He,1,* Yong Wang2,* 1Emergency Department, Zhenjiang First People’s Hospital, Zhenjiang, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Interventional Radiology and Vascular Surgery, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China *Both authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: Several molecular epidemiological studies have investigated the association between OPN rs11730582 C>T polymorphism and cancer risk, but the results are inconsistent. Hence, a meta-analysis was conducted to determine the association of this polymorphism with cancer risk. Materials and methods: The related articles were searched in PubMed, Embase, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to evaluate the strength of the associations. A random-effects model or fixed-effects model was employed depending on the heterogeneity. Results: A total of ten case-control studies involving 2,749 cancer cases and 3,398 controls were included in the meta-analysis. In overall analysis, OPN rs11730582 C>T polymorphism was not associated with cancer risk. In a stratified analysis by cancer type, no significant association was found between OPN rs11730582 C>T polymorphism and the risk of glioma, gastric cancer, and other cancers. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests that OPN rs11730582 C>T polymorphism is not associated with cancer susceptibility. Keywords: osteopontin, polymorphism, cancer, risk 

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Uwe; Walsh, Linda

2015-08-01

Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend the risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin's disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages before 55 yr reasonably well. However, for

Cancer Risk in Astronauts: A Constellation of Uncommon Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Milder, Caitlin M.; Elgart, S. Robin; Chappell, Lori; Charvat, Jaqueline M.; Van Baalen, Mary; Huff, Janice L.; Semones, Edward J.

2017-01-01

Excess cancers resulting from external radiation exposures have been noted since the early 1950s, when a rise in leukemia rates was first reported in young atomic bomb survivors [1]. Further studies in atomic bomb survivors, cancer patients treated with radiotherapy, and nuclear power plant workers have confirmed that radiation exposure increases the risk of not only leukemia, but also a wide array of solid cancers [2,3]. NASA has long been aware of this risk and limits astronauts' risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from cancer by specifying permissible mission durations (PMD) for astronauts on an individual basis. While cancer is present among astronauts, current data does not suggest any excess of known radiation-induced cancers relative to a comparable population of U.S. adults; however, very uncommon cancers have been diagnosed in astronauts including nasopharyngeal cancer, lymphoma of the brain, and acral myxoinflammatory fibroblastic sarcoma. In order to study cancer risk in astronauts, a number of obstacles must be overcome. Firstly, several factors make the astronaut cohort considerably different from the cohorts that have previously been studied for effects resulting from radiation exposure. The high rate of accidents and the much healthier lifestyle of astronauts compared to the U.S. population make finding a suitable comparison population a problematic task. Space radiation differs substantially from terrestrial radiation exposures studied in the past; therefore, analyses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in animal models must be conducted and correctly applied to the human experience. Secondly, a large enough population of exposed astronauts must exist in order to obtain the data necessary to see any potential statistically significant differences between the astronauts and the control population. Thirdly, confounders and effect modifiers, such as smoking, diet, and other space stressors, must be correctly identified and controlled for in those

Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

2014-03-01

The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

Inorganic arsenic in Chinese food and its cancer risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Gang; Sun, Guo-Xin; Williams, Paul N; Nunes, Luis; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2011-10-01

Even moderate arsenic exposure may lead to health problems, and thus quantifying inorganic arsenic (iAs) exposure from food for different population groups in China is essential. By analyzing the data from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey (CNNHS) and collecting reported values of iAs in major food groups, we developed a framework of calculating average iAs daily intake for different regions of China. Based on this framework, cancer risks from iAs in food was deterministically and probabilistically quantified. The article presents estimates for health risk due to the ingestion of food products contaminated with arsenic. Both per individual and for total population estimates were obtained. For the total population, daily iAs intake is around 42 μg day(-1), and rice is the largest contributor of total iAs intake accounting for about 60%. Incremental lifetime cancer risk from food iAs intake is 106 per 100,000 for adult individuals and the median population cancer risk is 177 per 100,000 varying between regions. Population in the Southern region has a higher cancer risk than that in the Northern region and the total population. Sensitive analysis indicated that cancer slope factor, ingestion rates of rice, aquatic products and iAs concentration in rice were the most relevant variables in the model, as indicated by their higher contribution to variance of the incremental lifetime cancer risk. We conclude that rice may be the largest contributor of iAs through food route for the Chinese people. The population from the South has greater cancer risk than that from the North and the whole population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on common genetic variants in women of East Asian ancestry.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Wanqing; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Guo, Xingyi; Cai, Qiuyin; Long, Jirong; Bolla, Manjeet K; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Wang, Qin; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Ying; Dunning, Alison M; García-Closas, Montserrat; Brennan, Paul; Chen, Shou-Tung; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Hartman, Mikael; Ito, Hidemi; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Matsuo, Keitaro; Miao, Hui; Muir, Kenneth; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Shen, Chen-Yang; Teo, Soo H; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Wu, Anna H; Yip, Cheng Har; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D P; Hall, Per; Kang, Daehee; Xiang, Yongbing; Easton, Douglas F; Zheng, Wei

2016-12-08

Approximately 100 common breast cancer susceptibility alleles have been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The utility of these variants in breast cancer risk prediction models has not been evaluated adequately in women of Asian ancestry. We evaluated 88 breast cancer risk variants that were identified previously by GWAS in 11,760 cases and 11,612 controls of Asian ancestry. SNPs confirmed to be associated with breast cancer risk in Asian women were used to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS). The relative and absolute risks of breast cancer by the PRS percentiles were estimated based on the PRS distribution, and were used to stratify women into different levels of breast cancer risk. We confirmed significant associations with breast cancer risk for SNPs in 44 of the 78 previously reported loci at P women in the middle quintile of the PRS, women in the top 1% group had a 2.70-fold elevated risk of breast cancer (95% CI: 2.15-3.40). The risk prediction model with the PRS had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.606. The lifetime risk of breast cancer for Shanghai Chinese women in the lowest and highest 1% of the PRS was 1.35% and 10.06%, respectively. Approximately one-half of GWAS-identified breast cancer risk variants can be directly replicated in East Asian women. Collectively, common genetic variants are important predictors for breast cancer risk. Using common genetic variants for breast cancer could help identify women at high risk of breast cancer.

Epidemiological studies on the effects of low-level ionizing radiation on cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akiba, Suminori

2010-01-01

The health effects of low-level ionizing radiation are yet unclear. As pointed out by Upton in his review (Upton, 1989), low-level ionizing radiation seems to have different biological effects from what high-level radiation has. If so, the hazard identification of ionizing radiation should he conducted separately for low- and high-level ionizing radiation; the hazard identification of low-level radiation is yet to be completed. What makes hazard identification of ionizing radiation difficult, particularly in the case of carcinogenic effect, is the difficulty in distinguishing radiation-induced cancer from other cancers with respect to clinicopathological features and molecular biological characteristics. Actually, it is suspected that radiation-induced carcinogenesis involves mechanisms not specific for radiation, such as oxidative stress. Excess risk per dose in medium-high dose ranges can be extrapolated to a low-dose range if dose-response can be described by the linear-non-threshold model. The cancer risk data of atomic-bomb survivors describes leukemia risk with a linear-quadratic (LQ) model and solid-cancer risk with linear non-threshold (LNT) model. The LQ model for leukemia and the LNT model for solid cancer correspond to the two-hit model and the one-hit model, respectively. Although the one-hit model is an unlikely dose-response for carcinogenesis, there is no convincing epidemiological evidence supporting the LQ model or non-threshold model for solid cancer. It should be pointed out, however, even if the true dose response is non-linear various noises involved in epidemiological data may mask the truth. In this paper, the potential contribution of epidemiological studies on nuclear workers and residents in high background radiation areas will be discussed. (author)

Risks of Breast Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... is small. Different factors increase or decrease the risk of breast cancer. Anything that increases your chance ... magnetic resonance imaging) in women with a high risk of breast cancer MRI is a procedure that ...

Risks of Lung Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... in women. Different factors increase or decrease the risk of lung cancer. Anything that increases your chance ... been studied to see if they decrease the risk of dying from lung cancer. The following screening ...

Risks of Endometrial Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... Health history and certain medicines can affect the risk of developing endometrial cancer. Anything that increases your ... have abnormal vaginal bleeding, check with your doctor. Risks of Endometrial Cancer Screening Key Points Screening tests ...

Risks of Esophageal Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... alcohol use, and Barrett esophagus can affect the risk of developing esophageal cancer. Anything that increases the ... tissue gives off less light than normal tissue. Risks of Esophageal Cancer Screening Key Points Screening tests ...

Risks of Cervical Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... women. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the major risk factor for cervical cancer. Although most women with ... clinical trials is available from the NCI website . Risks of Cervical Cancer Screening Key Points Screening tests ...

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Risks of Liver (Hepatocellular) Cancer Screening

Science.gov (United States)

... cancer. Having hepatitis or cirrhosis can increase the risk of developing liver cancer. Anything that increases the ... clinical trials is available from the NCI website . Risks of Liver (Hepatocellular) Cancer Screening Key Points Screening ...

Computed tomography in children: multicenter cohort study design for the evaluation of cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krille, L.; Jahnen, A.; Mildenberger, P.; Schneider, K.; Weisser, G.; Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M.

2011-01-01

Exposure to ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer. Cancer risk is highest after exposure in childhood. The computed tomography is the major contributor to the average, individual radiation exposure. Until now the association has been addressed only in statistical modeling. We present the first feasible study design on childhood cancer risk after exposure to computed tomography.

Laboratory animal models for esophageal cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dhanya Venugopalan Nair

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The incidence of esophageal cancer is rapidly increasing especially in developing countries. The major risk factors include unhealthy lifestyle practices such as alcohol consumption, smoking, and chewing tobacco to name a few. Diagnosis at an advanced stage and poor prognosis make esophageal cancer one of the most lethal diseases. These factors have urged further research in understanding the pathophysiology of the disease. Animal models not only aid in understanding the molecular pathogenesis of esophageal cancer but also help in developing therapeutic interventions for the disease. This review throws light on the various recent laboratory animal models for esophageal cancer.

Increased stomach cancer risk following radiotherapy for testicular cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauptmann, M; Fossa, S D; Stovall, M

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Abdominal radiotherapy for testicular cancer (TC) increases risk for second stomach cancer, although data on the radiation dose-response relationship are sparse. METHODS: In a cohort of 22,269 5-year TC survivors diagnosed during 1959-1987, doses to stomach subsites were estimated...... for 92 patients who developed stomach cancer and 180 matched controls. Chemotherapy details were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of second primary stomach cancer was 1.45% at 30 years after TC diagnosis. The TC survivors who received...... radiotherapy (87 (95%) cases, 151 (84%) controls) had a 5.9-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-20.7) increased risk of stomach cancer. Risk increased with increasing stomach dose (P-trend

Risk of Cancer in Children Conceived by Assisted Reproductive Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Reigstad, Marte Myhre; Larsen, Inger Kristin; Myklebust, Tor Åge; Robsahm, Trude Eid; Oldereid, Nan Birgitte; Brinton, Louise A; Storeng, Ritsa

2016-03-01

An increasing number of children are born after assisted reproductive technology (ART), and monitoring their long-term health effects is of interest. This study compares cancer risk in children conceived by ART to that in children conceived without. The Medical Birth Registry of Norway contains individual information on all children born in Norway (including information of ART conceptions). All children born between 1984 and 2011 constituted the study cohort, and cancer data were obtained from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Follow-up started at date of birth and ended on the date of the first cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2011. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of overall cancer risk between children conceived by ART and those not. Cancer risk was also assessed separately for all childhood cancer types. The study cohort comprised 1 628 658 children, of which 25 782 were conceived by ART. Of the total 4554 cancers, 51 occurred in ART-conceived children. Risk of overall cancer was not significantly elevated (HR 1.21; 95% CI 0.90-1.63). However, increased risk of leukemia was observed for children conceived by ART compared with those who were not (HR 1.67; 95% CI 1.02-2.73). Elevated risk of Hodgkin's lymphoma was also found for ART-conceived children (HR 3.63; 95% CI 1.12-11.72), although this was based on small numbers. This population-based cohort study found elevated risks of leukemia and Hodgkin's lymphoma in children conceived by ART. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

2013-01-01

Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

Solid cancer risks from radiation exposure for the Australian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, K.N.

2003-01-01

Estimates are made of the risks to the Australian population as a function of age and gender for mortality or morbidity for all solid cancers after exposure to radiation. Excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models are used. The model coefficients are re-evaluated for radiation doses expressed as effective dose using data from the Japanese Life Span Study. Life-table methods are used throughout and the risk measures studied are: the risk of exposure related death, RERD and the risk of exposure related cancer, RERC. Australian life-table data and the age-specific cancer incidence and mortality rates of Australian males and females are taken from recent published tables. No dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor is applied. Sources of uncertainty used to calculate the confidence regions for the estimated risks include the statistical uncertainties of the model parameters and of the extrapolation of the risks beyond the period supported by the epidemiological data. Summary values of the risks are reported as averages of those calculated from the ERR and the EAR models. For males, the mortality risks per sievert range from 14% for 0-9 year age group, 7% at 30-39 years and 4% at 50-59 years. Corresponding values for females are 20%, 10% and 6%. Incidence risks are higher: for males the estimates are 32% for the 0-9 year group, 12% at 30-39 and 5% at 50-59. Corresponding values for females are 56%, 20% and 8%. The 90% confidence regions are about ± 50% of these values. Estimates are given for the risks from CT whole-body scanning or virtual colonoscopy which could be used for cancer screening. If used at 3 year intervals and the effective dose per procedure is 10 mSv, then the RERD for males beginning screening at 40, 50 and 60 years is 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively and for females, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. RERD estimates for a 5 year interval between screens are about one-third smaller. Copyright (2003) Australasian College of

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojing Lin

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43–2.03. However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94–1.25. Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Social ties and risk for cancer - a prospective cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergelt, Corinna; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

2009-01-01

consisted of 8 548 Danes who had been examined in 1991-1994 within the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The median length of follow-up was 9.3 years (range, 0-11.2 years). Social ties were measured from answers to a questionnaire on social networks. Regression analyses for cancers at the most frequent sites......BACKGROUND: Poor social support and small social networks have been associated with increased risks for conditions such as coronary heart disease as well as with overall mortality. We investigated the association between social ties and risk for cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study sample...... (breast, lung, prostate and colon and rectum) were conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, with adjustment for a number of well-known risk factors for cancer. RESULTS: While we found no significant association between social ties and risk for cancer in men, women with high social network scores...

Social ties and risk for cancer - a prospective cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bergelt, C.; Prescott, E.; Gronbaek, M.

2009-01-01

consisted of 8 548 Danes who had been examined in 1991-1994 within the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The median length of follow-up was 9.3 years (range, 0-11.2 years). Social ties were measured from answers to a questionnaire on social networks. Regression analyses for cancers at the most frequent sites......Background. Poor social support and small social networks have been associated with increased risks for conditions such as coronary heart disease as well as with overall mortality. We investigated the association between social ties and risk for cancer. Material and methods. The study sample...... (breast, lung, prostate and colon and rectum) were conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, with adjustment for a number of well-known risk factors for cancer. Results. While we found no significant association between social ties and risk for cancer in men, women with high social network scores...

ATM, radiation, and the risk of second primary breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernstein, Jonine L; Concannon, Patrick

2017-10-01

It was first suggested more than 40 years ago that heterozygous carriers for the human autosomal recessive disorder Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) might also be at increased risk for cancer. Subsequent studies have identified the responsible gene, Ataxia-Telangiectasia Mutated (ATM), characterized genetic variation at this locus in A-T and a variety of different cancers, and described the functions of the ATM protein with regard to cellular DNA damage responses. However, an overall model of how ATM contributes to cancer risk, and in particular, the role of DNA damage in this process, remains lacking. This review considers these questions in the context of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Heterozygous carriers of loss of function mutations in ATM that are A-T causing, are at increased risk of breast cancer. However, examination of a range of genetic variants, both rare and common, across multiple cancers, suggests that ATM may have additional effects on cancer risk that are allele-dependent. In the case of CBC, selected common alleles at ATM are associated with a reduced incidence of CBC, while other rare and predicted deleterious variants may act jointly with radiation exposure to increase risk. Further studies that characterize germline and somatic ATM mutations in breast cancer and relate the detected genetic changes to functional outcomes, particularly with regard to radiation responses, are needed to gain a complete picture of the complex relationship between ATM, radiation and breast cancer.

Household-level disparities in cancer risks from vehicular air pollution in Miami

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2015-01-01

Environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on ecological analyses of socio-demographic data from areal units to determine if particular populations are disproportionately burdened by toxic risks. This article advances quantitative EJ research by (a) examining whether statistical associations found for geographic units translate to relationships at the household level; (b) testing alternative explanations for distributional injustices never before investigated; and (c) applying a novel statistical technique appropriate for geographically-clustered data. Our study makes these advances by using generalized estimating equations to examine distributive environmental inequities in the Miami (Florida) metropolitan area, based on primary household-level survey data and census block-level cancer risk estimates of hazardous air pollutant (HAP) exposure from on-road mobile emission sources. In addition to modeling determinants of on-road HAP cancer risk among all survey participants, two subgroup models are estimated to examine whether determinants of risk differ based on disadvantaged minority (Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black) versus non-Hispanic white racial/ethnic status. Results reveal multiple determinants of risk exposure disparities. In the model including all survey participants, renter-occupancy, Hispanic and non-Hispanic black race/ethnicity, the desire to live close to work/urban services or public transportation, and higher risk perception are associated with greater on-road HAP cancer risk; the desire to live in an amenity-rich environment is associated with less risk. Divergent subgroup model results shed light on the previously unexamined role of racial/ethnic status in shaping determinants of risk exposures. While lower socioeconomic status and higher risk perception predict significantly greater on-road HAP cancer risk among disadvantaged minorities, the desire to live near work/urban services or public transport predict significantly greater risk among

Depression and cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Y; Li, F; Liu, Y F; Zhao, J P; Leng, M M; Chen, L

2017-08-01

To assess the associations between depression and incident cancer risk. Systematic review and meta-analysis. The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, MEDLINE, and PubMed databases were searched to identify studies. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Risk ratios (RRs) were used to measure effect size. A random-effects model was applied to synthesize the associations between depression and cancer risk. A forest plot was produced to visually assess RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity across studies was assessed using the I-squared statistic. A funnel plot was generated to assess potential publication bias, and Egger's regression was applied to test the symmetry of the funnel plot. In total, 1,469,179 participants and 89,716 incident cases of cancer from 25 studies were included. Depression was significantly associated with overall cancer risk (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09-1.22) and with liver cancer (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01-1.43) and lung cancer (RR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.04-1.72). Subgroup analysis of studies in North America resulted in a significant summary relative risk (RR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.15-1.48). No significant associations were found for breast, prostate, or colorectal/colon cancer. The average Newcastle Ottawa score was 7.56 for all included studies. Our findings showed a small and positive association between depression and the overall occurrence risk of cancer, as well as liver cancer and lung cancer risks. However, multinational and larger sample studies are required to further research and support these associations. Moreover, confounding factors such as cigarette smoking and alcohol use/abuse should be considered in future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Risk Factors on Different Interval Cancer Subtypes in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Programme

Science.gov (United States)

Blanch, Jordi; Sala, Maria; Ibáñez, Josefa; Domingo, Laia; Fernandez, Belén; Otegi, Arantza; Barata, Teresa; Zubizarreta, Raquel; Ferrer, Joana; Castells, Xavier; Rué, Montserrat; Salas, Dolores

2014-01-01

Background Interval cancers are primary breast cancers diagnosed in women after a negative screening test and before the next screening invitation. Our aim was to evaluate risk factors for interval cancer and their subtypes and to compare the risk factors identified with those associated with incident screen-detected cancers. Methods We analyzed data from 645,764 women participating in the Spanish breast cancer screening program from 2000–2006 and followed-up until 2009. A total of 5,309 screen-detected and 1,653 interval cancers were diagnosed. Among the latter, 1,012 could be classified on the basis of findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms, consisting of 489 true interval cancers (48.2%), 235 false-negatives (23.2%), 172 minimal-signs (17.2%) and 114 occult tumors (11.3%). Information on the screening protocol and women's characteristics were obtained from the screening program registry. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of risks factors for interval cancer and incident screen-detected cancer. A multinomial regression model, using screen-detected tumors as a reference group, was used to assess the effect of breast density and other factors on the occurrence of interval cancer subtypes. Results A previous false-positive was the main risk factor for interval cancer (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.28–3.23); this risk was higher for false-negatives (HR = 8.79, 95%CI: 6.24–12.40) than for true interval cancer (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.59–3.21). A family history of breast cancer was associated with true intervals (HR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.60–2.78), previous benign biopsy with a false-negatives (HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.23–2.71). High breast density was mainly associated with occult tumors (RRR = 4.92, 95%CI: 2.58–9.38), followed by true intervals (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.18–2.36) and false-negatives (RRR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.00–2.49). Conclusion The role of women's characteristics differs among

Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinayak Muralidhar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

Pet Ownership and Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, David O; Lander, Eric M; Wertheim, Betsy C; Manson, JoAnn E; Volpe, Stella L; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Stefanick, Marcia L; Lessin, Lawrence S; Kuller, Lewis H; Thomson, Cynthia A

2016-09-01

Pet ownership and cancer are both highly prevalent in the United States. Evidence suggests that associations may exist between this potentially modifiable factor and cancer prevention, though studies are sparse. The present report examined whether pet ownership (dog, cat, or bird) is associated with lower risk for total cancer and site-specific obesity-related cancers. This was a prospective analysis of 123,560 participants (20,981 dog owners; 19,288 cat owners; 1,338 bird owners; and 81,953 non-pet owners) enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative observational study and clinical trials. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate HR and 95% confidence intervals for the association between pet ownership and cancer, adjusted for potential confounders. There were no significant relationships between ownership of a dog, cat, or bird and incidence of cancer overall. When site-specific cancers were examined, no associations were observed after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Pet ownership had no association with overall cancer incidence. This is the first large epidemiologic study to date to explore relationships between pet ownership and cancer risk, as well as associated risks for individual cancer types. This study requires replication in other sizable, diverse cohorts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(9); 1311-6. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

A Prospective Evaluation of Plasma Polyphenol Levels and Colon Cancer Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murphy, Neil; Achaintre, David; Zamora-Ros, Raul

2018-01-01

Polyphenols have been shown to exert biological activity in experimental models of colon cancer; however, human data linking specific polyphenols to colon cancer is limited. We assessed the relationship between pre-diagnostic plasma polyphenols and colon cancer risk in a case-control study nested...

Modeling familial clustered breast cancer using published data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonker, MA; Jacobi, CE; Hoogendoorn, WE; Nagelkerke, NJD; de Bock, GH; van Houwelingen, JC

2003-01-01

The purpose of this research was to model the familial clustering of breast cancer and to provide an accurate risk estimate for individuals from the general population, based on their family history of breast and ovarian cancer. We constructed a genetic model as an extension of a model by Claus et

Arsenic in drinking-water and risk for cancer in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baastrup, Rikke; Sørensen, Mette; Balstrøm, Thomas

2008-01-01

inconsistent results. Objective: To determine if exposure to low levels of arsenic in drinking-water in Denmark is associated with an increased risk for cancer. Methods: The study was based on a prospective Danish cohort of 57,053 persons in the Copenhagen and Aarhus areas. Cancer cases were identified......Background: Arsenic is a well-known carcinogen, which is often found in drinking-water. Epidemiological studies have shown increased cancer risks among individuals exposed to high concentrations of arsenic in drinking-water, while studies of the carcinogenic effect of low doses have had...... back to 1970. Average exposure for the cohort ranged between 0.05 and 25.3 µg/L (mean = 1.2 µg/L). Cox's regression models were used to analyze possible relationships between arsenic and cancer. Results: We found no significant association between exposure to arsenic and risk for cancers of the lung...

A competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Latent radiogenic cancer fatalities from reactor accidents are considered to be more important than early fatalities. However, early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual whereas latent cancer fatalities generally result in limited life shortening. In this report a mathematical model is developed to express the reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received. The model is then used to compare the linear model of latent radiogenic cancer incidence with several nonlinear models that have appeared in the literature. (author)

Effects of smoking and antioxidant micronutrients on risk of colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Rikke Dalgaard; Albieri, Vanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

2013-04-01

Antioxidant intake has been reported to increase the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for smokers, yet reduce the risk for nonsmokers. We investigated the association between tobacco smoking and risk of colon or rectal cancer, and whether dietary and supplemental intake of the antioxidant vitamins A, C, E, β-carotene, selenium, zinc, and manganese affects the risk of CRC among smokers. Data on smoking habits and antioxidant intake were analyzed for 54,208 participants in the Danish Prospective Diet, Cancer and Health Study. Of these participants, 642 were diagnosed with colon cancer and 348 were diagnosed with rectal cancer. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Principal components were used to analyze intake of combinations of antioxidants. Ever smoking increased the risk for CRC (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.37), especially for rectal cancer. Smoking for at least 20 years was associated with a 26% increase in risk of CRC, compared with never smokers, and smoking 20 g tobacco or more each day was associated with a 30% increase in risk. Smoking for more than 30 years, or more than 20 g tobacco each day, was associated with a 48% increase in risk of rectal cancer. We did not observe an interaction between smoking and antioxidant consumption on risk of CRC. Tobacco smoking increases the risk for CRC. We did not observe that consumption of antioxidant micronutrients modulates the effects of smoking on CRC risk. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy and Risk of Thromboembolic Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bosco, Cecilia, E-mail: Cecilia.t.bosco@kcl.ac.uk [Translational Oncology & Urology Research (TOUR), Division of Cancer Studies, King' s College London, London (United Kingdom); Garmo, Hans [Translational Oncology & Urology Research (TOUR), Division of Cancer Studies, King' s College London, London (United Kingdom); Regional Cancer Centre, Uppsala, Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala (Sweden); Adolfsson, Jan [CLINTEC Department, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Stattin, Pär [Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala (Sweden); Department of Surgical and Perioperative Sciences, Urology and Andrology, Umeå University, Umeå (Sweden); Holmberg, Lars [Translational Oncology & Urology Research (TOUR), Division of Cancer Studies, King' s College London, London (United Kingdom); Regional Cancer Centre, Uppsala, Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala (Sweden); Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala (Sweden); Nilsson, Per; Gunnlaugsson, Adalsteinn [Department of Hematology, Oncology and Radiation Physics, Skane University Hospital, Lund University, Lund (Sweden); Widmark, Anders [Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Umeå (Sweden); Van Hemelrijck, Mieke [Translational Oncology & Urology Research (TOUR), Division of Cancer Studies, King' s College London, London (United Kingdom); Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)

2017-04-01

Purpose: To investigate the risk of thromboembolic disease (TED) after radiation therapy (RT) with curative intent for prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: We identified all men who received RT as curative treatment (n=9410) and grouped according to external beam RT (EBRT) or brachytherapy (BT). By comparing with an age- and county-matched comparison cohort of PCa-free men (n=46,826), we investigated risk of TED after RT using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The model was adjusted for tumor characteristics, demographics, comorbidities, PCa treatments, and known risk factors of TED, such as recent surgery and disease progression. Results: Between 2006 and 2013, 6232 men with PCa received EBRT, and 3178 underwent BT. A statistically significant association was found between EBRT and BT and risk of pulmonary embolism in the crude analysis. However, upon adjusting for known TED risk factors these associations disappeared. No significant associations were found between BT or EBRT and deep venous thrombosis. Conclusion: Curative RT for prostate cancer using contemporary methodologies was not associated with an increased risk of TED.

Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy and Risk of Thromboembolic Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosco, Cecilia; Garmo, Hans; Adolfsson, Jan; Stattin, Pär; Holmberg, Lars; Nilsson, Per; Gunnlaugsson, Adalsteinn; Widmark, Anders; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke

2017-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the risk of thromboembolic disease (TED) after radiation therapy (RT) with curative intent for prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: We identified all men who received RT as curative treatment (n=9410) and grouped according to external beam RT (EBRT) or brachytherapy (BT). By comparing with an age- and county-matched comparison cohort of PCa-free men (n=46,826), we investigated risk of TED after RT using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The model was adjusted for tumor characteristics, demographics, comorbidities, PCa treatments, and known risk factors of TED, such as recent surgery and disease progression. Results: Between 2006 and 2013, 6232 men with PCa received EBRT, and 3178 underwent BT. A statistically significant association was found between EBRT and BT and risk of pulmonary embolism in the crude analysis. However, upon adjusting for known TED risk factors these associations disappeared. No significant associations were found between BT or EBRT and deep venous thrombosis. Conclusion: Curative RT for prostate cancer using contemporary methodologies was not associated with an increased risk of TED.

Modeling lung cancer risks in laboratory dogs exposed to inhaled plutonium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.; Park, J.F.; Buschbom, R.L.

1990-06-01

These analyses are based on data from a lifespan study of beagle dogs exposed to inhaled plutonium being conducted at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. An important goal of this study is to increase understanding of health risk resulting from this exposure, with particular attention to lung cancer risks. Data on humans exposed to plutonium are inadequate for achieving this goal

Modeling the Risk of Secondary Malignancies after Radiotherapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uwe Schneider

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In developed countries, more than half of all cancer patients receive radiotherapy at some stage in the management of their disease. However, a radiation-induced secondary malignancy can be the price of success if the primary cancer is cured or at least controlled. Therefore, there is increasing concern regarding radiation-related second cancer risks in long-term radiotherapy survivors and a corresponding need to be able to predict cancer risks at high radiation doses. Of particular interest are second cancer risk estimates for new radiation treatment modalities such as intensity modulated radiotherapy, intensity modulated arc-therapy, proton and heavy ion radiotherapy. The long term risks from such modern radiotherapy treatment techniques have not yet been determined and are unlikely to become apparent for many years, due to the long latency time for solid tumor induction. Most information on the dose-response of radiation-induced cancer is derived from data on the A-bomb survivors who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons. Since, for radiation protection purposes, the dose span of main interest is between zero and one Gy, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is usually focused on this range. With increasing cure rates, estimates of cancer risk for doses larger than one Gy are becoming more important for radiotherapy patients. Therefore in this review, emphasis was placed on doses relevant for radiotherapy with respect to radiation induced solid cancer. Simple radiation protection models should be used only with extreme care for risk estimates in radiotherapy, since they are developed exclusively for low dose. When applied to scatter radiation, such models can predict only a fraction of observed second malignancies. Better semi-empirical models include the effect of dose fractionation and represent the dose-response relationships more accurately. The involved uncertainties are still huge for most of the organs and tissues. A major reason for

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Medication use and kidney cancer risk: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayan, Madhur; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Macdonald, Erin M; Finelli, Antonio; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2017-09-01

Exposure to commonly prescribed medications may be associated with cancer risk. However, there is limited data in kidney cancer. Furthermore, methods of classifying cumulative medication exposure in previous studies may be prone to bias. We conducted a population-based case-control study of 10,377 incident kidney cancer cases aged ≥66 years matched with 35,939 controls on age, sex, history of hypertension, comorbidity score, and geographic location. Cumulative exposure to commonly prescribed medications hypothesised to modulate cancer risk was obtained using prescription claims data. We modelled exposure in four different fashions: (1) as continuous exposures using (a) fractional polynomials (which allow for a non-linear relationship between an exposure and outcome) or (b) assuming linear relationships; and 2) as dichotomous exposures denoting (a) ≥3 years versus kidney cancer. The directions of association were relatively consistent across analyses; however, the magnitudes were sensitive to the method of analysis. When utilising fractional polynomials, increasing cumulative exposure to acetylsalicylic acid, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and proton-pump inhibitors was associated with significantly reduced risk of kidney cancer, while increasing exposure to antihypertensive drugs was associated with significantly increased risk. Our study provides impetus to further explore the effect of commonly prescribed medications on carcinogenesis to identify modifiable pharmacological interventions to reduce the risk of kidney cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer risk among insulin users

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

But, Anna; De Bruin, Marie L.; Bazelier, Marloes T.

2017-01-01

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this work was to investigate the relationship between use of certain insulins and risk for cancer, when addressing the limitations and biases involved in previous studies. Methods: National Health Registries from Denmark (1996–2010), Finland (1996–2011), Norway (2005......–2010) and Sweden (2007–2012) and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database (1987–2013) were used to conduct a cohort study on new insulin users (N = 327,112). By using a common data model and semi-aggregate approach, we pooled individual-level records from five cohorts and applied Poisson regression...... models. For each of ten cancer sites studied, we estimated the rate ratios (RRs) by duration (≤0.5, 0.5–1, 1–2, 2–3, 3–4, 4–5, 5–6 and >6 years) of cumulative exposure to insulin glargine or insulin detemir relative to that of human insulin. Results: A total of 21,390 cancer cases occurred during a mean...

Association between XPF polymorphisms and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Yan Shi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group F (XPF or ERCC4 plays a key role in DNA repair that protects against genetic instability and carcinogenesis. A series of epidemiological studies have examined associations between XPF polymorphisms and cancer risk, but the findings remain inconclusive. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this meta-analysis of 47,639 cancer cases and 51,915 controls, by searching three electronic databases (i.e., MEDLINE, EMBASE and CNKI, we summarized 43 case-control studies from 29 publications on four commonly studied polymorphisms of XPF (i.e., rs1800067, rs1799801, rs2020955 and rs744154, and we did not find statistical evidence of any significant association with overall cancer risk. However, in stratification analyses, we found a significant association of XPF-rs1799801 with a reduced cancer risk in Caucasian populations (4,845 cases and 5,556 controls; recessive model: OR=0.87, 95% CI=0.76-1.00, P=0.049, P=0.723 for heterogeneity test, I(2 =0. Further genotype-phenotype correlation analysis showed that the homozygous variant CC genotype carriers had higher XPF expression levels than that of the TT genotype carriers (Student's t test for a recessive model: P=0.046. No publication bias was found by using the funnel plot and Egger's test. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis suggests a lack of statistical evidence for the association between the four XPF SNPs and overall risk of cancers. However, XPF-rs1799801 may be associated with cancer risk in Caucasian populations, which needs to be further validated in single large, well-designed prospective studies.

Dietary habits contributing to breast cancer risk among Iranian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Mobarakeh, Zahra Sheikhi; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Hatmi, Nadia; Ebrahimi, Mandana; Dabiran, Sohaila; Sotoudeh, Gity

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate demographic features, dietary habits, and some possible risk factors for being susceptible to breast cancer in Iranian women. A study of dietary habits and breast cancer was conducted among 53 Iranian women with histological confirmed disease and 40 matched controls. A dietary habits questionnaire was used to evaluate the pattern of selected food intakes. The risk of cancer was analyzed after adjustment for confounding factors. Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, educational status, parity, lactation, marital status, menopause, history of estrogen therapy, and family history of breast disease or cancer were assessed among participants. Special attention was given to the relationship between consumption of high fat meat, milk, yogurt and cheese as well use of frying oils for frying foods, use of olive/liquid oils for cooking, removing fat from meat and poultry, removing chicken skin and not use of mayonnaise as salad dressing and the risk of breast cancer. Moreover, salad, vegetable and fruit consumption, and eating outdoors owere investigated. Our results revealed significant lower education and higher BMI and waist circumference levels in patients with breast cancer. There was significantly increased breast cancer risk in overweight women in comparison with normal weight (OR=2.91, 95%CI 1.24 to 6.82). High intake of fat dairy products including milk and cheese was found to be a statistically significant factor for increasing breast cancer risk in models adjusting for age, BMI and education. Use of olive/liquid oils for cooking and avoidance of mayonnaise as salad dressing are related to lower risk of breast cancer. The frequency of vegetable and fruit consumption was significantly lower in patients with breast cancer compared to healthy women. Dietary habits might be risk factors for breast cancer among Iranian women. Adoption of a prudent diet could be an appropriate strategy for preventing breast

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, Uwe, E-mail: uwe.schneider@uzh.ch [Institute of Physics, Science Faculty, University of Zürich, Zürich 8057, Switzerland and Radiotherapy Hirslanden, Uwe Schneider Institute of Radiotherapy, Witellikerstr. 40, Zürich 8032 (Switzerland); Walsh, Linda [Institute of Physics, Science Faculty, University of Zürich, Zürich 8057, Switzerland and BfS - Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Radiation Protection and Health, Neuherberg 85764 (Germany)

2015-08-15

Purpose: Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend the risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Methods: Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. Results: It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin’s disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. Conclusions: The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

Meat intake and risk of bladder cancer: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chaojun; Jiang, Hai

2012-06-01

Meat consumption is inconsistently associated with the development of bladder cancer in several epidemiological studies. We performed a meta-analysis of evidence for relationships of meat consumption with risk of bladder cancer. Literature searches were conducted to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts published up to October 2010. Twenty publications from 10 cohort studies and 11 case-control studies were included in the analyses. We quantified associations with bladder cancer using meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) associated with the highest versus the lowest category of meat intake using random effect model. Pooled results indicate that overall meat intake was not related to the risk of bladder cancer (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.80-1.27), while high red and processed meat consumer had a significantly increased 17 and 10% risk, respectively, when comparing the highest with the lowest category of meat intake. In subgroup analyses, studies conduced in Unites States/Canada exhibited a positive relationship between high meat intake and bladder cancer risk, and studies using self-administered questionnaires for exposure assessment also showed a significant increased relative risk for high meat consumers. However, because of borderline significance and small number of publications in individual analyses, more studies, particularly well-designed prospective studies, are needed to confirm these findings.

Estimated risk of radiation-induced cancer from paediatric chest CT: two-year cohort study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niemann, Tilo [Cantonal Hospital Baden, Department of Radiology, Baden (Switzerland); University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Colas, Lucie; Santangelo, Teresa; Faivre, Jean Baptiste; Remy, Jacques; Remy-Jardin, Martine [University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Roser, Hans W.; Bremerich, Jens [University of Basel Hospital, Clinic of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical Physics, Basel (Switzerland)

2015-03-01

The increasing absolute number of paediatric CT scans raises concern about the safety and efficacy and the effects of consecutive diagnostic ionising radiation. To demonstrate a method to evaluate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence/mortality due to a single low-dose helical chest CT in a two-year patient cohort. A two-year cohort of 522 paediatric helical chest CT scans acquired using a dedicated low-dose protocol were analysed retrospectively. Patient-specific estimations of radiation doses were modelled using three different mathematical phantoms. Per-organ attributable cancer risk was then estimated using epidemiological models. Additional comparison was provided for naturally occurring risks. Total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence remains low for all age and sex categories, being highest in female neonates (0.34%). Summation of all cancer sites analysed raised the relative lifetime attributable risk of organ cancer incidence up to 3.6% in female neonates and 2.1% in male neonates. Using dedicated scan protocols, total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence and mortality for chest CT is estimated low for paediatric chest CT, being highest for female neonates. (orig.)

Blood pressure and kidney cancer risk: meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hidayat, Khemayanto; Du, Xuan; Zou, Sheng-Yi; Shi, Bi-Min

2017-07-01

Globally, kidney cancer is the twelfth most common cancer, accounting for 337 860 cases recorded in 2012. By 2020, this number has been estimated to reach 412 929 or increase by 22%. Over the past few decades, a number of prospective studies have investigated the association between blood pressure (BP) and risk of kidney cancer, using either recorded BP levels or reported hypertension as the principal exposure variable. However, the relation of BP to kidney cancer remains incompletely understood, and the data on sex-specific differences in risk estimates have been inconsistent. PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched for studies assessing the association between BP and kidney cancer through July 2016. The summary relative risk with 95% confidence intervals was calculated using a random-effects model. A total of 18 prospective studies with 8097 kidney cancer cases from 3 628 479 participants were included in our meta-analysis. History of hypertension was associated with 67% increased risk of kidney cancer. Significant heterogeneity and evidence of publication bias were observed. However, the results remain unchanged after introducing the trim and fill method to correct the publication bias. Accordingly, each 10-mmHg increase in SBP and DBP was associated with 10 and 22% increased risk of kidney cancer. Collectively, the present meta-analysis of 18 prospective studies provides further support for a positive association between hypertension and kidney cancer risk.

Do Lung Cancer Eligibility Criteria Align with Risk among Blacks and Hispanics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin Fiscella

Full Text Available Black patients have higher lung cancer risk despite lower pack years of smoking. We assessed lung cancer risk by race, ethnicity, and sex among a nationally representative population eligible for lung cancer screening based on Medicare criteria.We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2012 to assess lung cancer risk by sex, race and ethnicity among persons satisfying Medicare age and pack-year smoking eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening. We assessed Medicare eligibility based on age (55-77 years and pack-years (≥ 30. We assessed 6-year lung cancer risk using a risk prediction model from Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening trial that was modified in 2012 (PLCOm2012. We compared the proportions of eligible persons by sex, race and ethnicity using Medicare criteria with a risk cut-point that was adjusted to achieve comparable total number of persons eligible for screening.Among the 29.7 million persons aged 55-77 years who ever smoked, we found that 7.3 million (24.5% were eligible for lung cancer screening under Medicare criteria. Among those eligible, Blacks had statistically significant higher (4.4% and Hispanics lower lung cancer risk (1.2% than non-Hispanic Whites (3.2%. At a cut-point of 2.12% risk for lung screening eligibility, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics showed statistically significant changes. Blacks eligible rose by 48% and Hispanics eligible declined by 63%. Black men and Hispanic women were affected the most. There was little change in eligibility among Whites.Medicare eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening do not align with estimated risk for lung cancer among Blacks and Hispanics. Data are urgently needed to determine whether use of risk-based eligibility screening improves lung cancer outcomes among minority patients.

Modeling the Aneuploidy Control of Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Zhong

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Aneuploidy has long been recognized to be associated with cancer. A growing body of evidence suggests that tumorigenesis, the formation of new tumors, can be attributed to some extent to errors occurring at the mitotic checkpoint, a major cell cycle control mechanism that acts to prevent chromosome missegregation. However, so far no statistical model has been available quantify the role aneuploidy plays in determining cancer. Methods We develop a statistical model for testing the association between aneuploidy loci and cancer risk in a genome-wide association study. The model incorporates quantitative genetic principles into a mixture-model framework in which various genetic effects, including additive, dominant, imprinting, and their interactions, are estimated by implementing the EM algorithm. Results Under the new model, a series of hypotheses tests are formulated to explain the pattern of the genetic control of cancer through aneuploid loci. Simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical behavior of the model. Conclusions The model will provide a tool for estimating the effects of genetic loci on aneuploidy abnormality in genome-wide studies of cancer cells.

Awareness of risk factors for cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lagerlund, Magdalena; Hvidberg, Line; Hajdarevic, Senada

2015-01-01

Background: Sweden and Denmark are neighbouring countries with similarities in culture, healthcare, and economics, yet notable differences in cancer statistics. A crucial component of primary prevention is high awareness of risk factors in the general public. We aimed to determine and compare...... awareness of risk factors for cancer between a Danish and a Swedish population sample, and to examine whether there are differences in awareness across age groups. Methods: Data derive from Module 2 of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. Telephone interviews were conducted with 3000 adults...... in Denmark and 3070 in Sweden using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer measure. Data reported here relate to awareness of 13 prompted risk factors for cancer. Prevalence ratios with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated to examine associations between country, age, and awareness of risk factors...

Radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yossepowitch, Ofer; Eastham, James A

2008-06-01

Consensus recommendations for the identification and treatment of men whose apparent organ confined prostate cancer has high risk features are lacking. Despite ongoing refinements in surgical technique and improvements in morbidity and functional outcomes, the tradition of steering high-risk patients away from radical prostatectomy (RP) remains steadfast. We performed a medical literature search in English using MEDLINE/PubMed that addressed high risk prostate cancer. We analyzed the literature with respect to the historical evolution of this concept, current risk stratification schemes and treatment guidelines and related short and long term outcomes following RP. Contemporary evidence suggest that patients classified with high-risk prostate cancer by commonly used definitions do not have a uniformly poor prognosis after RP. Many cancers categorized clinically as high risk are actually pathologically confined to the prostate, and most men with such cancers who undergo RP are alive and free of additional therapy long after surgery. RP in the high-risk setting appears to be associated with a similar morbidity as in lower-risk patients. Men with clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer should not be categorically disqualified from local definitive therapy with RP. With careful attention to surgical technique, cancer control rates should improve further, and adverse effects on quality of life after RP should continue to decrease.

The influence of family history on cognitive heuristics, risk perceptions, and prostate cancer screening behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, Michelle E; Occhipinti, Stefano; Chambers, Suzanne K

2013-11-01

To examine how family history of prostate cancer, risk perceptions, and heuristic decision strategies influence prostate cancer screening behavior. Men with a first-degree family history of prostate cancer (FDRs; n = 207) and men without a family history (PM; n = 239) completed a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) examining prostate cancer risk perceptions, PSA testing behaviors, perceptions of similarity to the typical man who gets prostate cancer (representativeness heuristic), and availability of information about prostate cancer (availability heuristic). A path model explored family history as influencing the availability of information about prostate cancer (number of acquaintances with prostate cancer and number of recent discussions about prostate cancer) to mediate judgments of risk and to predict PSA testing behaviors and family history as a moderator of the relationship between representativeness (perceived similarity) and risk perceptions. FDRs reported greater risk perceptions and a greater number of PSA tests than did PM. Risk perceptions predicted increased PSA testing only in path models and was significant only for PM in multi-Group SEM analyses. Family history moderated the relationship between similarity perceptions and risk perceptions such that the relationship between these variables was significant only for FDRs. Recent discussions about prostate cancer mediated the relationships between family history and risk perceptions, and the number of acquaintances men knew with prostate cancer mediated the relationship between family history and PSA testing behavior. Family history interacts with the individuals' broader social environment to influence risk perceptions and screening behavior. Research into how risk perceptions develop and what primes behavior change is crucial to underpin psychological or public health intervention that seeks to influence health decision making.

Dose-stress synergism in cancer risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pop-Jordanova, N.; Pop-Jordanov, J.

2001-01-01

Our hypothesis is that the relatively low risk of cancer or leukaemia from depleted uranium, as predicted by the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a result of neglecting the synergism between physico-chemical agents and psychological stress agents (here shortly denoted as dose-stress synergism). We use the modified risk assessment model that comprises a psycho-somatic extension, originally developed by us for assessing the risks of energy sources. Our preliminary meta-analysis of animal and human studies on cancers confirmed the existence of stress effects, including the amplifying synergism. Consequently, the psychological stress can increase the probability of even small toxic chemical or ionizing radiation exposure to produce malignancy. Such dose-stress synergism might influence the health risks among military personnel and the residents in the highly stressful environment in the Balkans. Further investigation is needed to estimate the order of magnitude of these combined effects in particular circumstances. (Original)

Reproductive History and Breast Cancer Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... 4 ). This risk reduction is limited to hormone receptor –positive breast cancer; age at first full-term ...

ABO blood type and the risk of cancer - Findings from the Shanghai Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joyce Yongxu Huang

Full Text Available ABO blood type is an inherited characteristic. The associations between ABO blood type and risk of all cancer and specific cancers were examined in a prospective cohort study of 18,244 Chinese men enrolled in 1986. During the 25 years of follow-up, 3,973 men developed cancer including 964 lung cancers, 624 colorectal cancers, 560 gastric cancers, 353 liver cancers, and 172 urinary bladder cancers. Hazard ratios (HR for all cancer and specific cancers by ABO blood type were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with blood type A, blood type B was associated with statistically significant reduced risk of all cancers (HR, 0.91, 95% CI:0.84, 0.99. Both blood types B and AB were associated with significantly lower risk of gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. Blood type B was also associated with significantly lower risk of stomach cancer and bladder cancer, while blood type AB was associated with significantly increased risk of liver cancer. By histological type, blood types B and AB were associated with lower risk of epidermoid carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, but were not associated with risk of sarcoma, lymphoma, leukemia or other cell types of cancer. The findings of this study support a role of genetic traits related to ABO blood type in the development of cancers in the gastrointestinal and urinary tracts.

ABO blood type and the risk of cancer - Findings from the Shanghai Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Joyce Yongxu; Wang, Renwei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Yuan, Jian-Min

2017-01-01

ABO blood type is an inherited characteristic. The associations between ABO blood type and risk of all cancer and specific cancers were examined in a prospective cohort study of 18,244 Chinese men enrolled in 1986. During the 25 years of follow-up, 3,973 men developed cancer including 964 lung cancers, 624 colorectal cancers, 560 gastric cancers, 353 liver cancers, and 172 urinary bladder cancers. Hazard ratios (HR) for all cancer and specific cancers by ABO blood type were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Compared with blood type A, blood type B was associated with statistically significant reduced risk of all cancers (HR, 0.91, 95% CI:0.84, 0.99). Both blood types B and AB were associated with significantly lower risk of gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. Blood type B was also associated with significantly lower risk of stomach cancer and bladder cancer, while blood type AB was associated with significantly increased risk of liver cancer. By histological type, blood types B and AB were associated with lower risk of epidermoid carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, but were not associated with risk of sarcoma, lymphoma, leukemia or other cell types of cancer. The findings of this study support a role of genetic traits related to ABO blood type in the development of cancers in the gastrointestinal and urinary tracts.

The risk of colorectal cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peeters, Paul J H L; Bazelier, Marloes T; Leufkens, Hubert G M

2015-01-01

, 2,759 cases of colorectal cancer were observed among the diabetic study population. Type 2 diabetes was associated with a 1.3-fold increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.18-1.33]). Among diabetic patients, no association was found with treatment stages. A trend of increased......OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of colorectal cancer associated with type 2 diabetes, as compared with a nondiabetic reference population, and to study additional associations between treatment stage and duration of obesity and colorectal cancer risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted...... hazards models were used to derive adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer associated with type 2 diabetes. Within the diabetic cohort, associations of colorectal cancer with treatment stages and duration of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) were studied. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 4.5 years...

Increased cancer risk in patients with periodontitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dizdar, Omer; Hayran, Mutlu; Guven, Deniz Can; Yılmaz, Tolga Birtan; Taheri, Sahand; Akman, Abdullah C; Bilgin, Emre; Hüseyin, Beril; Berker, Ezel

2017-12-01

Previous studies have noted a possible association between periodontal diseases and the risk of various cancers. We assessed cancer risk in a cohort of patients with moderate to severe periodontitis. Patients diagnosed with moderate to severe periodontitis by a periodontist between 2001 and 2010 were identified from the hospital registry. Patients younger than 35 years of age or with a prior cancer diagnosis were excluded. The age- and gender-standardized incidence rates (SIR) were calculated by dividing the number of observed cases by the number of expected cases from Turkish National Cancer Registry 2013 data. A total of 280 patients were included (median age 49.6, 54% female). Median follow-up was 12 years. Twenty-five new cancer cases were observed. Patients with periodontitis had 77% increased risk of cancer (SIR 1.77, 95% CI 1.17-2.58, p = .004). Women with periodontitis had significantly higher risk of breast cancer (SIR 2.40, 95% CI 0.88-5.33) and men with periodontitis had significantly higher risk of prostate cancer (SIR 3.75, 95% CI 0.95-10.21) and hematological cancers (SIR 6.97, 95% CI 1.77-18.98). Although showing a causal association necessitates further investigation, our results support the idea that periodontitis might be associated with increased cancer risk, particularly with hematological, breast and prostate cancers.

Northeast Regional Cancer Institute's Cancer Surveillance and Risk Factor Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesko, Samuel M.

2007-07-31

OBJECTIVES The Northeast Regional Cancer Institute is conducting a program of ongoing epidemiologic research to address cancer disparities in northeast Pennsylvania. Of particular concern are disparities in the incidence of, stage at diagnosis, and mortality from colorectal cancer. In northeast Pennsylvania, age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for colorectal cancer are higher, and a significantly smaller proportion of new colorectal cancer cases are diagnosed with local stage disease than is observed in comparable national data. Further, estimates of the prevalence of colorectal cancer screening in northeast Pennsylvania are lower than the US average. The Northeast Regional Cancer Institute’s research program supports surveillance of common cancers, investigations of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors, and the development of resources to further cancer research in this community. This project has the following specific objectives: I. To conduct cancer surveillance in northeast Pennsylvania. a. To monitor incidence and mortality for all common cancers, and colorectal cancer, in particular, and b. To document changes in the stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in this high-risk, underserved community. II. To conduct a population-based study of cancer risk factors and screening behavior in a six county region of northeast Pennsylvania. a. To monitor and document changes in colorectal cancer screening rates, and b. To document the prevalence of cancer risk factors (especially factors that increase the risk of colorectal cancer) and to identify those risk factors that are unusually common in this community. APPROACH Cancer surveillance was conducted using data from the Northeast Regional Cancer Institute’s population-based Regional Cancer Registry, the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry, and NCI’s SEER program. For common cancers, incidence and mortality were examined by county within the region and compared to data for similar populations in the US

Dietary habits and stomach cancer risk in the JACC Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tokui, Noritaka; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Hoshiyama, Yoshiharu; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kondo, Takaaki; Kikuchi, Shogo; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Hayakawa, Norihiko; Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2005-06-01

Despite a declining incidence, stomach cancer is still a dominant cancer in Japan. The association between dietary habits and stomach cancer risk was investigated in a large prospective study in Japan. Data were obtained using a self-administered questionnaire from 1988 through 1990. Food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate the consumption of 33 selected food items. Proportional hazard model was used to determine the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of stomach cancer for different levels of the dietary intakes. A western style breakfast showed an inverse association with stomach cancer risk in males (HR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.35-0.70). Women who consumed liver three to four times per week and more than once per day had a significant increased risk, respectively (HR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.12-3.63, HR=3.16, 95% CI: 1.16-8.62 ). A clear dose-response relationship between the intake of liver and stomach cancer risk was observed. We found no association between stomach cancer mortality and the consumption of fruit such as mandarin orange, and vegetables such as carrots and spinach in both men and women. The consumption of high salt foods such as miso soup and pickles was also not significantly associated with the mortality of stomach cancer in both sexes. This prospective study suggested that a western-style breakfast is associated with a lower risk of stomach cancer, although some differences in the association were seen between men and women.

Lung cancer risk from radon and smoking - additive or multiplicative effect?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomasek, L.

2016-01-01

The aim of the work is to evaluate the risk of lung cancer when combined radon and smoking exposure. Methodologically the evaluation is based on case and control study nested in two cohort studies, including 11,000 miners and 12,000 residents exposed to high concentrations of radon in homes. Radon exposure in individuals is complemented by information on smoking gained personally from them or from their relatives. The study is based on 1,073 cases of lung cancer among miners and 372 cases in population study. Control subjects were randomly selected in each study based on gender, year of birth and age achieved. The combined effect of smoking and radon is evaluated using the so-called geometric mixed models, whose special case is an additive or multiplicative model. The resulting model of the risk is closer to additive interaction (parameter of mixed model 0.2). The consequences of the model in the study of population are illustrated by estimates of lifetime risk in a hypothetical population of smokers and nonsmokers. Compared to the multiplicative risk model, the lifetime risk significantly increased according to the best geometric mixed model, especially in the population of non-smokers. (author)

Subjective versus objective risk in genetic counseling for hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sperduti Isabella

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the fact that genetic counseling in oncology provides information regarding objective risks, it can be found a contrast between the subjective and objective risk. The aims of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of the perceived risk compared to the objective risk estimated by the BRCApro computer model and to evaluate any associations between medical, demographic and psychological variables and the accuracy of risk perception. Methods 130 subjects were given medical-demographic file, Cancer and Genetic Risk Perception, Hospital Anxiety-Depression Scale. It was also computed an objective evaluation of the risk by the BRCApro model. Results The subjective risk was significantly higher than objective risk. The risk of tumour was overestimated by 56%, and the genetic risk by 67%. The subjects with less cancer affected relatives significantly overestimated their risk of being mutation carriers and made a more innacurate estimation than high risk subjects. Conclusion The description of this sample shows: general overestimation of the risk, inaccurate perception compared to BRCApro calculation and a more accurate estimation in those subjects with more cancer affected relatives (high risk subjects. No correlation was found between the levels of perception of risk and anxiety and depression. Based on our findings, it is worth pursuing improved communication strategies about the actual cancer and genetic risk, especially for subjects at "intermediate and slightly increased risk" of developing an hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer or of being mutation carrier.

A Risk Assessment Comparison of Breast Cancer and Factors Affected to Risk Perception of Women in Turkey: A Cross-sectional Study