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Sample records for calprotectin predicts mortality

  1. Plasma calprotectin predicts mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise J N; Haahr-Pedersen, Sune Ammentorp; Bjerre, Mette;

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the predictive value of plasma calprotectin levels for mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) successfully treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).......We investigated the predictive value of plasma calprotectin levels for mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) successfully treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI)....

  2. Calprotectin - A Marker of Mortality in COPD?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgaard, Dennis Back; Mygind, Lone H; Titlestad, Ingrid;

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Calprotectin comprises more than 45% of the cytosolic content of neutrophil granulocytes. Because pathogenesis, disease activity and disease progression in COPD are believed to be partly dependent of neutrophil driven inflammation we decided to investigate whether plasma level of...... calprotectin (p-calprotectin) was associated with all-cause mortality in patients with COPD. We measured p-calprotectin in blood samples from 460 patients with moderate to very severe COPD in stable phase. Patients were stratified into three groups according to p-calprotectin level. Outcome measure was all......-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for factors known to influence mortality using a Cox regression analysis. We found a time dependent correlation between p-calprotectin levels and mortality during the first 5 years of follow-up. Increasing levels of p-calprotectin were associated with concomitant increases...

  3. Fecal Calprotectin Predicts Relapse and Histological Mucosal Healing in Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theede, Klaus; Holck, Susanne; Ibsen, Per;

    2016-01-01

    . Fecal calprotectin (FC) was measured 2 to 3 days before the sigmoidoscopy. The tissue samples were evaluated for neutrophilic inflammation. We aimed at testing the predictive performance of FC and histological inflammatory activity on disease relapse. RESULTS: A baseline FC level of more than 321 mg...

  4. Prediction of Crohn's disease relapse with fecal calprotectin in infliximab responders: a prospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Laharie, David; Mesli, Samir; Chabrun, Edouard; El Hajbi, Farid; Chanteloup, Elise; Capdepont, Maylis; Razaire, Sylvie; Ledinghen, Victor De; Zerbib, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background: Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a reliable tool for predicting Crohn?s disease (CD) relapse in patients with sustained remission. Prediction of relapse with FC has been less studied in patients with severe CD treated with anti-TNF. Aim: to identify an association between FC concentration and CD clinical relapse in patients achieving remission with infliximab (IFX). Methods: From February 2007 to October 2008, consecutive patients with refractory luminal CD w...

  5. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, calprotectin and YKL-40 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Allan Klitgaard; Holmgaard, Dennis Back; Mygind, Lone Hagens;

    2015-01-01

    - and multivariate Cox regression analyses with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Plasma calprotectin was positively correlated with neutrophil granulocyte count and NLR. No significant association was found between plasma YKL-40 and the cellular biomarkers, irrespective......BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by chronic inflammation and progressive decline in pulmonary function. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), YKL-40 and calprotectin are biomarkers of inflammation and predict mortality in patients with different inflammatory...

  6. Urinary Calprotectin and Posttransplant Renal Allograft Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bistrup, Claus; Marcussen, Niels; Pagonas, Nikolaos; Seibert, Felix S.; Arndt, Robert; Zidek, Walter; Westhoff, Timm H.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Current methods do not predict the acute renal allograft injury immediately after kidney transplantation. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of urinary calprotectin for predicting immediate posttransplant allograft injury. Methods In a multicenter, prospective-cohort study of 144 incipient renal transplant recipients, we postoperatively measured urinary calprotectin using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after 4 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months. Results We observed a significant inverse association of urinary calprotectin concentrations and eGFR 4 weeks after transplantation (Spearman r = −0.33; P<0.001). Compared to the lowest quartile, patients in the highest quartile of urinary calprotectin had an increased risk for an eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 four weeks after transplantation (relative risk, 4.3; P<0.001; sensitivity, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.98; specificity, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.66). Higher urinary calprotectin concentrations predicted impaired kidney function 4 weeks after transplantation, as well as 6 months and 12 months after transplantation. When data were analyzed using the urinary calprotectin/creatinine-ratio similar results were obtained. Urinary calprotectin was superior to current use of absolute change of plasma creatinine to predict allograft function 12 months after transplantation. Urinary calprotectin predicted an increased risk both in transplants from living and deceased donors. Multivariate linear regression showed that higher urinary calprotectin concentrations and older donor age predicted lower eGFR four weeks, 6 months, and 12 months after transplantation. Conclusions Urinary calprotectin is an early, noninvasive predictor of immediate renal allograft injury after kidney transplantation. PMID:25402277

  7. Fecal Calprotectin is an Accurate Tool and Correlated to Seo Index in Prediction of Relapse in Iranian Patients With Ulcerative Colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Jafari, Peyman; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Moini, Maryam; Mehrabi, Manoosh

    2015-01-01

    Background: The natural clinical course of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is characterized by episodes of relapse and remission. Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a relatively new marker of intestinal inflammation and is an available, non-expensive tool for predicting relapse of quiescent UC. The Seo colitis activity index is a clinical index for assessment of the severity of UC. Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of FC and the Seo colitis activity index and their correlation in p...

  8. Urinary calprotectin and posttransplant renal allograft injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tepel, Martin; Borst, Christoffer; Bistrup, Claus;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Current methods do not predict the acute renal allograft injury immediately after kidney transplantation. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of urinary calprotectin for predicting immediate posttransplant allograft injury. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective-cohort study of 144...... incipient renal transplant recipients, we postoperatively measured urinary calprotectin using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after 4 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months. RESULTS: We observed a significant inverse association of urinary calprotectin...... concentrations and eGFR 4 weeks after transplantation (Spearman r = -0.33; P<0.001). Compared to the lowest quartile, patients in the highest quartile of urinary calprotectin had an increased risk for an eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 four weeks after transplantation (relative risk, 4.3; P<0.001; sensitivity...

  9. Fecal Calprotectin and Clinical Disease Activity in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaija-Leena Kolho; Dan Turner

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore fecal calprotectin levels in pediatric ulcerative colitis (UC) in relation with the validated clinical activity index PUCAI. Methods. This study included all 37 children (median age 14 years) with UC who had calprotectin measured (PhiCal ELISA Test) by the time of PUCAI assessment at the Children's Hospital of Helsinki in a total of 62 visits. Calprotectin values 1000  μ g/g). The best cut-off value for calprotectin for predicting poor outcome was 800  μ g/g (sensitivity...

  10. Low fecal calprotectin predicts sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease patients : a plea for deep remission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooiweer, Erik; Severs, Mirjam; Schipper, Marguerite E I; Fidder, Herma H; Siersema, Peter D; Laheij, Robert J F; Oldenburg, Bas

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mucosal healing has become the treatment goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Whether low fecal calprotectin levels and histological healing combined with mucosal healing is associated with a further reduced risk of relapses is unknown. METHODS

  11. Low fecal calprotectin predicts sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease patients: a plea for deep remission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooiweer, E.; Severs, M.; Schipper, M.E.; Fidder, H.H.; Siersema, P.D.; Laheij, R.J.; Oldenburg, B.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mucosal healing has become the treatment goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Whether low fecal calprotectin levels and histological healing combined with mucosal healing is associated with a further reduced risk of relapses is unknown. METHODS

  12. Low fecal calprotectin predicts sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease patients : a plea for deep remission

    OpenAIRE

    Mooiweer, Erik; Severs, Mirjam; Marguerite E I Schipper; Fidder, Herma H; Siersema, Peter D; Laheij, Robert J F; Oldenburg, Bas

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mucosal healing has become the treatment goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Whether low fecal calprotectin levels and histological healing combined with mucosal healing is associated with a further reduced risk of relapses is unknown. METHODS: Patients with CD, UC or inflammatory bowel disease-unclassified (IBD-U) scheduled for surveillance colonoscopy collected a stool sample prior to bowel cleansing. Only patients with mucosal healin...

  13. Serum Calprotectin: A Potential Biomarker for Neonatal Sepsis

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    Lidia Decembrino

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The correct diagnosis of neonatal sepsis is a relevant problem because sepsis is one of the most important causes of neonatal morbidity, mortality, and prolonged hospital stay. Calprotectin is an antimicrobial, calcium and zinc binding heterocomplex protein that could be used as a nonspecific marker for activation of granulocytes and mononuclear phagocytes. Calprotectin has been proposed for the diagnosis of inflammatory conditions. Our aim is to study serum calprotectin as a biomarker for neonatal sepsis diagnosis. Methods. 41 (20 females, 21 males infants who underwent blood culture due to suspected sepsis were enrolled in the study. Serum calprotectin was measured by a commercial ELISA assay (Calprest, Eurospital, Trieste, Italy. Statistical analysis was performed using the statistical software package Stata 13.1 (Stata Corporation, College Station, Texas, USA. Results. 8 neonates (19.51% showed sepsis with positive culture and 33 (80.49% showed suspected sepsis. The optimal cut-off for calprotectin is 2.2 μg/mL with a sensitivity of 62.5% and a specificity of 69.7%. Conclusions. Calprotectin may be considered a promising early, sensitive, specific marker of sepsis thanks to the importance of calprotectin in defense mechanisms and physiological functions of the immune system.

  14. High level of fecal calprotectin at age 2 months as a marker of intestinal inflammation predicts atopic dermatitis and asthma by age 6

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orivuori, L.; Mustonen, K.; de Goffau, M. C.; Hakala, S.; Paasela, M.; Roduit, C.; Dalphin, J. -C.; Genuneit, J.; Lauener, R.; Riedler, J.; Weber, J.; von Mutius, E.; Pekkanen, J.; Harmsen, H. J. M.; Vaarala, O.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundGut microbiota and intestinal inflammation regulate the development of immune-mediated diseases, such as allergies. Fecal calprotectin is a biomarker of intestinal inflammation. ObjectiveWe evaluated the association of early-age fecal calprotectin levels to the later development of allergi

  15. Adrenomedullin optimises mortality prediction in COPD patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brusse-Keizer, Marjolein; Zuur-Telgen, Maaike; van der Palen, Job; VanderValk, Paul; Kerstjens, Huib; Boersma, Wim; Blasi, Francesco; Kostikas, Konstantinos; Milenkovic, Branislava; Tamm, Michael; Stolz, Daiana

    2015-01-01

    Background: Current multicomponent scores that predict mortality in COPD patients might underestimate the systemic component of COPD. Therefore, we evaluated the accuracy of circulating levels of proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) alone or combined with the ADO (Age, Dyspnoea, airflow Obstruction), updat

  16. Improving Mortality Prediction Using Biosocial Surveys

    OpenAIRE

    Goldman, Noreen; Glei, Dana A.; Lin, Yu-Hsuan; Weinstein, Maxine

    2009-01-01

    The authors used data from a nationally representative survey of 933 adults aged 54 years or older (mean age = 66.2 years; standard deviation, 8.0) in Taiwan to explore whether mortality prediction at older ages is improved by the use of 3 clusters of biomarkers: 1) standard cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors; 2) markers of disease progression; and 3) nonclinical (neuroendocrine and immune) markers. They also evaluated the extent to which these biomarkers account for the female advanta...

  17. The Role of Fecal Calprotectin in Investigating Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbayrak, Mustafa; Turkay, Cansel; Eraslan, Elife; Cetinkaya, Hulya; Kasapoglu, Benan; Bektas, Mehmet

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Invasive and non-invasive tests can be used to evaluate the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of fecal calprotectin in evaluating inflammatory bowel disease activity and the correlation of fecal calprotectin with the erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C reactive protein values in inflammatory bowel disease. METHOD: Sixty-five patients affected with inflammatory bowel disease were enrolled. Twenty outpatients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease comprised the control group. RESULTS: In the present study, all patients in the control group had an fecal calprotectin value lower than the cut-off point (50 mg/kg). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, fecal calprotectin was found to be strongly associated with colorectal inflammation indicating organic disease. Fecal calprotectin is a simple and non-invasive method for assessing excretion of macrophages into the gut lumen. Fecal calprotectin values can be used to evaluate the response to treatment, to screen asymptomatic patients, and to predict inflammatory bowel disease relapses. PMID:19488608

  18. The role of fecal calprotectin in investigating inflammatory bowel diseases

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    Mustafa Erbayrak

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Invasive and non-invasive tests can be used to evaluate the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of fecal calprotectin in evaluating inflammatory bowel disease activity and the correlation of fecal calprotectin with the erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C reactive protein values in inflammatory bowel disease. METHOD: Sixty-five patients affected with inflammatory bowel disease were enrolled. Twenty outpatients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease comprised the control group. RESULTS: In the present study, all patients in the control group had an fecal calprotectin value lower than the cut-off point (50 mg/kg. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, fecal calprotectin was found to be strongly associated with colorectal inflammation indicating organic disease. Fecal calprotectin is a simple and non-invasive method for assessing excretion of macrophages into the gut lumen. Fecal calprotectin values can be used to evaluate the response to treatment, to screen asymptomatic patients, and to predict inflammatory bowel disease relapses.

  19. 粪便钙卫蛋白对溃疡性结肠炎的诊断及预测复发的价值%Research about the diagnostic and predictive value of fecal calprotectin in ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    沈姞; 李俊霞; 王化虹; 谢鹏雁; 刘新光

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the diagnostic and predictive value of fecal calprotectin as a non-invasive approach in patients with ulcerative colitis ( UC ). Methods: 49 patients with ulcerative colitis, 38 patients with colon polyps, and 133 normal controls were recruited after colonoscopy. All the patients w asked to collect their stool sample one day before colonoscopy for measuring fecal calprotectin by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The disease activity of UC was evaluated according to Mayo disease activity index (UCAI). UC patients were followed up for recurrence within 2 years. Results: Fecal calprotectin concentration in active UC patients was significantly higher than the normal controls and those with colon polyps ( P 0. 05 ). Fecal calprotectin level was significantly correlated with the disease activity, mu-cosal healing and recurrence rate of UC. Conclusion: The levels of fecal calprotectin can be an objective reflection of UC disease activities and mucosal healing, and can predict the recurrence of UC patients.%目的:探讨粪便钙卫蛋白在溃疡性结肠炎(UC)诊断和预测复发方面的价值.方法:选取UC病人49例、结肠息肉38例和对照组133例,均行结肠镜检查,于检查前1d内留取粪便,采用ELISA法测定粪便钙卫蛋白的含量.UC临床分级采用Mayo疾病活动指数(UCAI),评价粪便钙卫蛋白测定作为判断UC活动性的指标,随访UC病人2年内的复发情况,评价粪便钙卫蛋白对UC复发的预测价值.结果:UC组病人活动期粪便钙卫蛋白水平显著高于对照组和息肉组(P<0.01);粪便钙卫蛋白水平与UC活动性、是否达到黏膜愈合及UC的复发显著相关.结论:粪便钙卫蛋白的含量与UC活动度呈正相关,可客观反映UC的炎症活动及黏膜愈合情况,预测UC的复发.

  20. Can fecal calprotectin better stratify Crohn’s disease activity index?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaioli, Eleonora; Cardamone, Carla; Scagliarini, Michele; Zagari, Rocco Maurizio; Bazzoli, Franco; Belluzzi, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Background Crohn’s disease (CD) activity index (CDAI) is still widely used for monitoring clinical activity in CD patients, but is of little value as indicator of persistent inflammation in symptomless patients. Fecal calprotectin levels ≥150 µg/g are strongly indicative of endoscopically and/or histologically active disease. Our aim was to study, in a large cohort of CD patients, the relationship between CDAI and fecal calprotectin levels. Methods CDAI and fecal calprotectin levels were evaluated in consecutive patients from a CD outpatient clinic. Results We enrolled 193 CD patients, of whom 38% with CDAI 120, we found a high diagnostic accuracy of 72%, with 88% specificity and 50% sensitivity (positive predictive value: 76%, negative predictive value: 71%) to identify a calprotectin value ≥150 µg/g. Conclusion CDAI scores between 100 and 150 display an acceptable ability to quantify the risk of persistent inflammation as expressed by the high calprotectin level. PMID:25831217

  1. Fecal Calprotectin and Clinical Disease Activity in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolho, Kaija-Leena; Turner, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore fecal calprotectin levels in pediatric ulcerative colitis (UC) in relation with the validated clinical activity index PUCAI. Methods. This study included all 37 children (median age 14 years) with UC who had calprotectin measured (PhiCal ELISA Test) by the time of PUCAI assessment at the Children's Hospital of Helsinki in a total of 62 visits. Calprotectin values 1000 μg/g). The best cut-off value for calprotectin for predicting poor outcome was 800 μg/g (sensitivity 73%, specificity 72%; area under the ROC curve being 0.71 (95%CI 0.57–0.85)) and for the PUCAI best cut-off values >10 (sensitivity 62%, specificity 64%; area under the ROC curve 0.714 (95%CI 0.58–0.85)). Conclusion. The clinical relevance of somewhat elevated calprotectin during clinical remission in pediatric UC is not known and, until further evidence accumulates, does not indicate therapy escalation. PMID:23533791

  2. Utility of faecal calprotectin analysis in adult inflammatory bowel disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lyn A Smith; Daniel R Gaya

    2012-01-01

    The inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD),Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis,are chronic relapsing,remitting disorders.Diagnosis,along with assessment of disease activity and prognosis present challenges to managing clinicians.Faecal biomarkers,such as faecal calprotectin,are a non-invasive method which can be used to aid these decisions.Calprotectin is a calcium and zinc binding protein found in the cytosol of human neutrophils and macrophages.It is released extracellularly in times of cell stress or damage and can be detected within faeces and thus can be used as a sensitive marker of intestinal inflammation.Faecal calprotectin has been shown to be useful in the diagnosis of IBD,correlates with mucosal disease activity and can help to predict response to treatment or relapse.With growing evidence supporting its use,over the last decade this faecal biomarker has significantly changed the way IBD is managed.

  3. Predicting Endoscopic Crohn's Disease Activity Before and After Induction Therapy in Children: A Comprehensive Assessment of PCDAI, CRP, and Fecal Calprotectin

    OpenAIRE

    Zubin, Grover; Peter, Lewindon

    2015-01-01

    Background: Mucosal healing (MH) is a vital early endpoint in management of Crohn’s disease (CD). MH depends on endoscopic assessment and there is increasing interest in non-invasive proxies, Pediatric Crohn’s Disease activity Index (PDCAI), C-reactive protein (CRP) and fecal calprotectin (FC). These proxies must be validated against endoscopic disease activity (SES-CD) at diagnosis and after induction therapy in well characterized cohorts of children with CD. Methods: A prospective cohort of...

  4. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  5. Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, Bruce A.; Grahn, Douglas; Hoel, David

    2003-01-01

    Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.

  6. Fecal calprotectin as a biomarker of inflammatory lesions of the small bowel seen by videocapsule endoscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Egea-Valenzuela

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The levels of calprotectin in the stools are proportional to neutrophil activity in the enteric lumen, so fecal calprotectin is a useful intestinal inflammatory biomarker. It is an extended tool as predictor of colonic pathology but there is scare evidence about its utility in the small bowel. Objective: To test the yield of fecal calprotectin to detect lesions in the small bowel. Material and methods: We have retrospectively included 71 patients sent for small bowel capsule endoscopy in study for suspected inflammatory bowel disease. All of them had a determination of fecal calprotectin and had been sent to colonoscopy with no findings. Patients have been divided in groups: A, fecal calprotectin 100 µg/g, and we have analyzed which of them presented inflammatory lesions in capsule endoscopy studies. Results: The rate of patients with signi ficative lesions was 1 out of 10 (10% in group A, 6 out of 24 (25% in group B, and 21 out of 34 (62% in group C. If we consider levels over 50 µg/g pathologic, fecal calprotectin presents sensitivity: 96%, specificity: 23%, NPV: 90% and PPV: 56%. If we consider levels over 100 µg/g pathologic these values are sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 67%, NPV: 79% and PPV: 62%. Conclusions: Fecal calprotectin has high sensitivity but not so good specificity for predicting small bowel lesions after a normal colonoscopy. In daily practice it will be more useful to establish in 100 µg/g the limit to indicate capsule endoscopy studies.

  7. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

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    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  8. Fecal calprotectin concentration in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Ju Yi; Ko, Kyung Ok; Lim, Jae Woo; Cheon, Eun Jeong; Kim, Hyo Jeong

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Among the many factors associated with acute intestinal mucosal infection, numerous studies have proposed the usefulness of fecal calprotectin. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of fecal calprotectin in the diagnosis of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Methods We collected 154 stool samples from 16 very low birth weight and premature newborns at the Konyang University Hospital neonatal intensive care unit or neonatal nursery. The stool samples were collected using the Calprest device, and the fecal calprotectin level was measured with the BÜHLMANN Calprotectin enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. Results Fecal calprotectin levels were significantly higher in the NEC group than in the non-NEC group (P=0.02). There was a significant positive linear relationship between the fecal calprotectin level and number of days after birth (P=0.00) in the gestational age <26 weeks group. There was a significant negative linear relationship between the calprotectin level and number of days after birth (P=0.03) in the gestational age ≥26 weeks and <30 weeks group. There was no difference in the calprotectin levels according to the type and method of feeding between the NEC and non-NEC groups. Conclusion Fecal calprotectin levels were significantly increased in premature infants with NEC. The fecal calprotectin test is a noninvasive, easy, and useful tool for the diagnosis of NEC. PMID:25210522

  9. Anxiety Predicts Mortality in ICD Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kikkenborg Berg, Selina; Caspar Thygesen, Lau; Hastrup Svendsen, Jesper;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although highly effective in preventing arrhythmic death, patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) may still experience psychological difficulties such as anxiety, depression, and reduced quality of life. The objectives of this study were to describe patient...... receiving ICD between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 (n = 499). The following instruments were used: SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HeartQoL, EQ-5D, and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory. RESULTS: The response rate was 72%. Mean age was 65.5 years and 82% patients were males. Fifty...... perceived health, quality of life, and fatigue; for example, physical health 39.8 versus 44.3 points, compared to secondary prevention indication. Anxiety, poor perceived health, fatigue, and low quality of life were all predictors of mortality, anxiety being the strongest with an adjusted odds ratio of 4...

  10. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics.

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    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person's photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  11. Disgust sensitivity predicts defensive responding to mortality salience.

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    Kelley, Nicholas J; Crowell, Adrienne L; Tang, David; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Schmeichel, Brandon J

    2015-10-01

    Disgust protects the physical self. The present authors suggest that disgust also contributes to the protection of the psychological self by fostering stronger defensive reactions to existential concerns. To test this idea, 3 studies examined the link between disgust sensitivity and defensive responses to mortality salience or "terror management" processes (Greenberg, Solomon, & Pyszczynski, 1997). Each study included an individual difference measure of disgust sensitivity, a manipulation of mortality salience, and a dependent measure of defensive responding. In Study 1, disgust sensitivity predicted increases in worldview defense in the mortality salience condition but not in the control condition. In Study 2, disgust sensitivity predicted increases in optimistic perceptions of the future in the mortality salience condition but not in the control condition. In Study 3, disgust sensitivity predicted reductions in delay discounting for those in the mortality salience condition such that those higher in disgust sensitivity discounted the future less. This pattern did not occur in the control condition. These findings highlight disgust sensitivity as a key to understanding reactions to mortality salience, and they support the view that disgust-related responses protect against both physical (e.g., noxious substances) and psychological threats. PMID:25775230

  12. Fecal calprotectin and α1-antitrypsin dynamics in gastrointestinal GvHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Meara, A; Kapel, N; Xhaard, A; Sicre de Fontbrune, F; Manéné, D; Dhedin, N; de Latour, R P; Socié, G; Robin, M

    2015-08-01

    In a previous study, the fecal biomarkers calprotectin and α1-antitrypsin (α1-AT) at symptom onset were reported to be significantly associated with the response to steroids in gastrointestinal GvHD (GI-GvHD). The purpose of this trial was to evaluate the dynamics of the fecal biomarkers calprotectin and α1-AT throughout the course of GvHD. Patients who were refractory to steroids had initially higher biomarker levels and in the course of GvHD demonstrated a continuous increase in fecal biomarkers. In contrast, the dynamics of calprotectin and α1-AT demonstrated low and decreasing levels in cortico-sensitive GvHD. In steroid-refractory patients who received a second line of treatment, the biomarker levels at the beginning of second-line treatment did not predict the subsequent response. Nevertheless, calprotectin levels progressively decreased in subsequent responders, whereas non-responders demonstrated continuously high levels of calprotectin. α1-AT values correlated to a lesser extent with the response to second-line treatment and remained elevated in both non-responders and responders. In conclusion, calprotectin monitoring can be of use in the management of immunosuppressive treatment in GI-GvHD. PMID:25961766

  13. Predicting mortality in patients with diabetes starting dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merel van Diepen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. METHODS: Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD, a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21% patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy. The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary.

  14. Multiple biomarkers for mortality prediction in peripheral arterial disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrock, Stephen M; Weitzman, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Few studies have assessed which biomarkers influence mortality risk among those with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). We analyzed data from 556 individuals identified to have PAD (i.e. ankle-brachial index ⩽0.9) with available measurements of C-reactive protein, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), homocysteine, and the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We investigated whether a combination of these biomarkers improved the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality beyond conventional risk factors. During follow-up (median, 8.1 years), 277 of 556 participants died; 63 deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease. After adjusting for conventional risk factors, Cox proportional-hazards models showed the following to be most strongly associated with all-cause mortality (each is followed by the adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 1 standard deviation increment in the log values): homocysteine (1.31), UACR (1.21), and NLR (1.20). UACR alone significantly predicted cardiovascular mortality (1.53). Persons in the highest quintile of multimarker scores derived from regression coefficients of significant biomarkers had elevated risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.66-3.62; p for trend, HR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.02-4.71; p for trend, 0.053) compared to those in the lowest two quintiles. The addition of continuous multimarker scores to conventional risk factors improved risk stratification of all-cause mortality (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.162; pcontinuous multimarker score to conventional risk factors improved mortality prediction among patients with PAD. PMID:26762418

  15. About adaptive state knowledge extraction for septic shock mortality prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Brause, Rüdiger W.

    2010-01-01

    The early prediction of mortality is one of the unresolved tasks in intensive care medicine. This contribution models medical symptoms as observations cased by transitions between hidden markov states. Learning the underlying state transition probabilities results in a prediction probability success of about 91%. The results are discussed and put in relation to the model used. Finally, the rationales for using the model are reflected: Are there states in the septic shock data?

  16. Predicting discharge mortality after acute ischemic stroke using balanced data.

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, KC; Speier, W.; El-Saden, S.; Liebeskind, DS; Saver, JL; Bui, AA; Arnold, CW

    2014-01-01

    Several models have been developed to predict stroke outcomes (e.g., stroke mortality, patient dependence, etc.) in recent decades. However, there is little discussion regarding the problem of between-class imbalance in stroke datasets, which leads to prediction bias and decreased performance. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique to overcome such problems. We also compare state of the art machine learning methods and construct a six-variable ...

  17. Pulse wave velocity predicts mortality in renal transplant patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell A

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Measuring arterial stiffness using pulse wave velocity (PWV has become an important tool to assess vascular function and cardiovascular mortality. For subject with hypertension, end-stage renal disease and diabetes, PWV has been shown to predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We hypothesize that PWV would also predict mortality in subjects who have undergone kidney transplantation. Methods A cohort of 330 patients with renal transplantation was studied with a mean age at entry 51.4 ± 0.75 years. Mean follow-up was 3.8 years (± 0.7 years; 16 deaths occurred during follow-up. At entry, together with standard clinical and biochemical parameters, PWV was determined from pressure tracing over carotid and femoral arteries. Results With increasing PWV, there was a significant increase in age, systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure. In addition, subjects with higher PWV also exhibited more frequently the presence of coronary heart disease. On the basis of Cox analyses, PWV and systolic blood pressure emerged as predictors of all-cause mortality. Conclusion These results provide evidence that PWV is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in the population of renal transplant recipients.

  18. Predicting Mortality of Critically Ill Patients by Blood Glucose Levels

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    Byung Sam Park

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe aim of this study is to observe the outcome of critically ill patients in relation to blood glucose level at admission and to determine the optimal range of blood glucose at admission predicting lower hospital mortality among critically ill patients.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of a total 1,224 subjects (males, 798; females, 426 admitted to intensive care unit (ICU from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2010. Blood glucose levels at admission were categorized into four groups (group 1, <100 mg/dL; group 2, 100 to 199 mg/dL; group 3, 200 to 299 mg/dL; and group 4, ≥300 mg/dL.ResultsAmong 1,224 patients, 319 patients were already known diabetics, and 296 patients died in ICU. Five hundred fifty-seven subjects received insulin therapy, and 118 received oral hypoglycemic agents. The overall mortality rate was 24.2% (296 patients. The causes of death and mortality rates of diabetic patients were not different from nondiabetic subjects. The mortality curve showed J shape, and there were significant differences in mortality between the groups of blood glucose levels at admission. Group 2 had the lowest mortality rate (P<0.05.ConclusionThese results suggest that serum glucose levels upon admission into ICU is associated with clinical outcomes in ICU patients. Blood glucose level between 100 and 199 mg/dL at the time of ICU admission could predict lower hospital mortality among critically ill patients.

  19. Predicting discharge mortality after acute ischemic stroke using balanced data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, King Chung; Speier, William; El-Saden, Suzie; Liebeskind, David S; Saver, Jeffery L; Bui, Alex A T; Arnold, Corey W

    2014-01-01

    Several models have been developed to predict stroke outcomes (e.g., stroke mortality, patient dependence, etc.) in recent decades. However, there is little discussion regarding the problem of between-class imbalance in stroke datasets, which leads to prediction bias and decreased performance. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique to overcome such problems. We also compare state of the art machine learning methods and construct a six-variable support vector machine (SVM) model to predict stroke mortality at discharge. Finally, we discuss how the identification of a reduced feature set allowed us to identify additional cases in our research database for validation testing. Our classifier achieved a c-statistic of 0.865 on the cross-validated dataset, demonstrating good classification performance using a reduced set of variables. PMID:25954451

  20. Predictive Indices of Morbidity and Mortality After Liver Resection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Rebecca A.; Marroquin, Carlos E.; Bute, Barbara Phillips; Khuri, Shukri; Henderson, William G.; Kuo, Paul C.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine if use of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to elective resections accurately predicts short-term morbidity or mortality. Summary Background Data: MELD scores have been validated in the setting of end-stage liver disease for patients awaiting transplantation or undergoing transvenous intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures. Its use in predicting outcomes after elective hepatic resection has not been evaluated. Methods: Records of 587 patients who underwent elective hepatic resection and were included in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database were reviewed. MELD score, CTP score, Charlson Index of Comorbidity, American Society of Anesthesiology classification, and age were evaluated for their ability to predict short-term morbidity and mortality. Morbidity was defined as the development of one or more of the following complications: pulmonary edema or embolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure or insufficiency, pneumonia, deep venous thrombosis, bleeding, deep wound infection, reoperation, or hyperbilirubinemia. The analysis was repeated with patients divided according to their procedure and their primary diagnosis. Parametric or nonparametric analyses were performed as appropriate. Also, a new index was developed by dividing the patients into a development and a validation cohort, to predict morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing elective hepatic resection. ROC curves were also constructed for each of the primary indices. Results: CTP and ASA scores were superior in predicting outcome. Also, patients undergoing resection of primary malignancies had a higher rate of mortality but no difference in morbidity. Conclusion: MELD scores should not be used to predict outcomes in the setting of elective hepatic resection. PMID:16495703

  1. Predicting Mortality in Low-Income Country ICUs: The Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabeth D Riviello

    Full Text Available Intensive Care Unit (ICU risk prediction models are used to compare outcomes for quality improvement initiatives, benchmarking, and research. While such models provide robust tools in high-income countries, an ICU risk prediction model has not been validated in a low-income country where ICU population characteristics are different from those in high-income countries, and where laboratory-based patient data are often unavailable. We sought to validate the Mortality Probability Admission Model, version III (MPM0-III in two public ICUs in Rwanda and to develop a new Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM for use in low-income countries.We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to Rwanda's two public ICUs between August 19, 2013 and October 6, 2014. We described demographic and presenting characteristics and outcomes. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MPM0-III model. Using stepwise selection, we developed a new logistic model for risk prediction, the R-MPM, and used bootstrapping techniques to test for optimism in the model.Among 427 consecutive adults, the median age was 34 (IQR 25-47 years and mortality was 48.7%. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 85.3%, and 41.9% received vasopressors. The MPM0-III predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.024. We developed a new model using five variables: age, suspected or confirmed infection within 24 hours of ICU admission, hypotension or shock as a reason for ICU admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score at ICU admission, and heart rate at ICU admission. Using these five variables, the R-MPM predicted outcomes with area under the ROC curve of 0.81 with 95% confidence interval of (0.77, 0.86, and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.154.The MPM0-III has modest ability to predict mortality in a population of Rwandan ICU patients. The R-MPM is an alternative risk

  2. Predicting Mortality in Low-Income Country ICUs: The Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiviri, Willy; Fowler, Robert A.; Mueller, Ariel; Novack, Victor; Banner-Goodspeed, Valerie M.; Weinkauf, Julia L.; Talmor, Daniel S.; Twagirumugabe, Theogene

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Intensive Care Unit (ICU) risk prediction models are used to compare outcomes for quality improvement initiatives, benchmarking, and research. While such models provide robust tools in high-income countries, an ICU risk prediction model has not been validated in a low-income country where ICU population characteristics are different from those in high-income countries, and where laboratory-based patient data are often unavailable. We sought to validate the Mortality Probability Admission Model, version III (MPM0-III) in two public ICUs in Rwanda and to develop a new Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM) for use in low-income countries. Methods We prospectively collected data on all adult patients admitted to Rwanda’s two public ICUs between August 19, 2013 and October 6, 2014. We described demographic and presenting characteristics and outcomes. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MPM0-III model. Using stepwise selection, we developed a new logistic model for risk prediction, the R-MPM, and used bootstrapping techniques to test for optimism in the model. Results Among 427 consecutive adults, the median age was 34 (IQR 25–47) years and mortality was 48.7%. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 85.3%, and 41.9% received vasopressors. The MPM0-III predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.024. We developed a new model using five variables: age, suspected or confirmed infection within 24 hours of ICU admission, hypotension or shock as a reason for ICU admission, Glasgow Coma Scale score at ICU admission, and heart rate at ICU admission. Using these five variables, the R-MPM predicted outcomes with area under the ROC curve of 0.81 with 95% confidence interval of (0.77, 0.86), and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic p = 0.154. Conclusions The MPM0-III has modest ability to predict mortality in a population of Rwandan ICU patients. The R

  3. Factors predicting mortality in emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly

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    Fukuda Naoto

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective This study aimed to investigate clinical features of abdominal emergency surgery in elderly patients, and to determine factors predicting mortality in these patients. Methods The study population included 94 patients aged 80 years or older who underwent emergency surgery for acute abdominal diseases between 2000 and 2010. Thirty-six patients (38.3% were male and fifty-eight patients (61.7% were female (mean age, 85.6 years. Main outcome measures included background of the patient’s physical condition (concomitant medical disease, and performance status, cause of disease, morbidity and mortality, and disease scoring system (APACHE II, and POSSUM. Prognostic factors affecting mortality of the patient were also evaluated by univariate analysis using Fisher’s exact test and Mann–Whitney U–test, and by multivariate analysis using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results Of the 94 patients, 71 (75.5% had a co-existing medical disease; most patients had hypertension (46.8%. The most frequent surgical indications were acute cholecystitis in 23 patients (24.5%, followed by intestinal obstruction in 18 patients (19.1%. Forty-one patients (43.6% had complications during hospital stay; the most frequent were surgical site infection (SSI in 21 patients (22.3% and pneumonia in 12 patients (12.8%. Fifteen patients died (overall mortality, 16% within 1 month after operation. The most common causes of death were sepsis related to pan-peritonitis in 5 patients (5.3%, and pneumonia in 4 patients (4.3%. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that time from onset of symptoms to hospital admission and the POSSUM scoring system could be prognostic factors for mortality. Conclusions Mortality in elderly patients who underwent emergency surgery for acute abdominal disease can be predicted using the disease scoring system (POSSUM and on the basis of delay in hospital admission.

  4. Vitamin D status predicts 30 day mortality in hospitalised cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titmarsh, Helen; Kilpatrick, Scott; Sinclair, Jennifer; Boag, Alisdair; Bode, Elizabeth F; Lalor, Stephanie M; Gaylor, Donna; Berry, Jacqueline; Bommer, Nicholas X; Gunn-Moore, Danielle; Reed, Nikki; Handel, Ian; Mellanby, Richard J

    2015-01-01

    Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OH)D and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OH)D, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OH)D concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OH)D concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52) for cats with a serum 25(OH)D concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OH)D concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats. PMID:25970442

  5. Fecal calprotectin in coeliac disease

    OpenAIRE

    Capone, Pietro; Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Caporaso, Nicola; Tortora, Raffaella

    2014-01-01

    We would like to share with the readers the results of our experience in 50 celiac disease (CD) patients, enrolled between September 2012 and April 2013, who were referred to our third-level CD Unit. The fecal calprotectin (FC) concentration of 50 adults with newly diagnosed CD was compared to that of a control group of 50 healthy subjects. FC level was determined by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay with diagnostic cut-off of 75 μg/g. In addition, we tried to correlate the FC level with symp...

  6. Fecal calprotectin concentration in neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis

    OpenAIRE

    Yoon, Jung Min; Park, Ju Yi; Ko, Kyung Ok; Lim, Jae Woo; Cheon, Eun Jeong; Kim, Hyo Jeong

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Among the many factors associated with acute intestinal mucosal infection, numerous studies have proposed the usefulness of fecal calprotectin. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of fecal calprotectin in the diagnosis of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Methods We collected 154 stool samples from 16 very low birth weight and premature newborns at the Konyang University Hospital neonatal intensive care unit or neonatal nursery. The stool samples were collected using t...

  7. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality

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    Yinan Zheng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3–5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02 and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.10 and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07–1.28. Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003 and mortality (P = 0.02. Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a ‘J-shaped’ manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  8. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-07-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  9. Evaluation of Biliary Calprotectin as a Biomarker in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauss, Annika; Sauer, Peter; Stiehl, Adolf; Rupp, Christian; Krisam, Johannes; Leopold, Yvonne; Kloeters-Plachky, Petra; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Gotthardt, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the bile ducts with limited therapeutic options except liver transplantation. Reliable biomarkers to predict the disease course are unavailable, and currently employed disease activity scores such as the Mayo risk score (MRS) have limitations. The present study aims to evaluate biliary calprotectin as a marker of disease activity and prognosis in PSC.This is a monocentric retrospective observational study. Calprotectin concentrations were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in bile samples collected by endoscopic retrograde cholangiography from 106 PSC patients and 20 controls. Biliary calprotectin concentrations were compared between the 2 groups. In PSC patients, results were evaluated with regard to the presence of dominant bile duct stenoses, bile microbiology, MRS, survival free of liver transplantation, and necessity for bile duct interventions in the further disease course.Median (interquartile ranges) biliary calprotectin concentrations were higher in PSC patients than in controls (3646 ng/mL, 249-9748 vs 116 ng/mL, 104-655; P 11,610 ng/mL) as a risk factor of shorter transplantation-free survival of PSC patients (P 142.5 U/L) (P = 0.006), high MRS (≥2) (P < 0.001), and nonsterility of bile (P = 0.03). Multivariate analysis identified only MRS (P = 0.002) and ALP concentration (P = 0.04) as independent risk factors.Our data strongly suggest that biliary calprotectin may be a valuable additional marker for disease activity and a predictor of outcome in PSC, so that further studies for evaluation of calprotectin in this disease are warranted. PMID:27124059

  10. Prediction of mortality in very premature infants: a systematic review of prediction models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Medlock

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Being born very preterm is associated with elevated risk for neonatal mortality. The aim of this review is to give an overview of prediction models for mortality in very premature infants, assess their quality, identify important predictor variables, and provide recommendations for development of future models. METHODS: Studies were included which reported the predictive performance of a model for mortality in a very preterm or very low birth weight population, and classified as development, validation, or impact studies. For each development study, we recorded the population, variables, aim, predictive performance of the model, and the number of times each model had been validated. Reporting quality criteria and minimum methodological criteria were established and assessed for development studies. RESULTS: We identified 41 development studies and 18 validation studies. In addition to gestational age and birth weight, eight variables frequently predicted survival: being of average size for gestational age, female gender, non-white ethnicity, absence of serious congenital malformations, use of antenatal steroids, higher 5-minute Apgar score, normal temperature on admission, and better respiratory status. Twelve studies met our methodological criteria, three of which have been externally validated. Low reporting scores were seen in reporting of performance measures, internal and external validation, and handling of missing data. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models can predict mortality better than birth weight or gestational age alone in very preterm infants. There are validated prediction models for classification and case-mix adjustment. Additional research is needed in validation and impact studies of existing models, and in prediction of mortality in the clinically important subgroup of infants where age and weight alone give only an equivocal prognosis.

  11. Calprotectin--a novel marker of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Ole Hartvig; Nielsen, Anders Rinnov; Erikstrup, Christian;

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The two inflammatory molecules, S100A8 and S100A9, form a heterodimer, calprotectin. Plasma calprotectin levels are elevated in various inflammatory disorders. We hypothesized that plasma calprotectin levels would be increased in subjects with low-grade systemic inflammation i.e. either...... obese subjects or subjects with type 2 diabetes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Plasma calprotectin and skeletal muscle S100A8 mRNA levels were measured in a cohort consisting of 199 subjects divided into four groups depending on presence or absence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and presence or absence of...... obesity. There was a significant interaction between obesity and T2D (p = 0.012). Plasma calprotectin was increased in obese relative to non-obese controls (p<0.0001), whereas it did not differ between obese and non-obese patients with T2D (p = 0.62). S100A8 mRNA levels in skeletal muscle were not...

  12. Mortality Risk Prediction by Application of PRISM Scoring System in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    OpenAIRE

    Mahdi Mohammadi; Afshin Fayyazi; Mohsen Raeisi; Noor Mohammad Noori; Ali Khajeh; Ghasem Miri-Aliabad

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) score is one of the scores used by many pediatricians for prediction of the mortality risk in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Herein, evaluate the efficacy of PRISM score in prediction of mortality rate in PICU.Methods: In this cohort study, 221 children admitted during an 18-month period to PICU, were enrolled. PRISM score and mortality risk were calculated. Follow up was noted as death or discharge. Results were analyzed by Kaplan...

  13. Dynamics of Urinary Calprotectin after Renal Ischaemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebbing, Jan; Seibert, Felix S.; Pagonas, Nikolaos; Bauer, Frederic; Miller, Kurt; Kempkensteffen, Carsten; Günzel, Karsten; Bachmann, Alexander; Seifert, Hans H.; Rentsch, Cyrill A.; Ardelt, Peter; Wetterauer, Christian; Amico, Patrizia; Babel, Nina; Westhoff, Timm H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Urinary calprotectin has been identified as a promising biomarker for acute kidney injury. To date, however, the time-dependent changes of this parameter during acute kidney injury remain elusive. The aim of the present work was to define the time-course of urinary calprotectin secretion after ischaemia/reperfusion-induced kidney injury in comparison to neutrophil gelatinase—associated lipocalin, thereby monitoring the extent of tubular damage in nephron sparing surgery for kidney tumours. Methods: The study population consisted of 42 patients. Thirty-two patients underwent either open or endoscopic nephron sparing surgery for kidney tumours. During the surgery, the renal arterial pedicle was clamped with a median ischaemic time of 13 minutes (interquartile range, 4.5–20.3 minutes) in 26 patients. Ten retro-peritoneoscopic living donor nephrectomy patients and 6 nephron sparing surgery patients in whom the renal artery was not clamped served as controls. Urinary calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase—associated lipocalin concentrations were repeatedly measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and assessed according to renal function parameters. Results: Urinary concentrations of calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase—associated lipocalin increased significantly after ischaemia/reperfusion injury, whereas concentrations remained unchanged after nephron sparing surgery without ischaemia/reperfusion injury and after kidney donation. Calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase—associated lipocalin levels were significantly increased 2 and 8 hours, respectively, post-ischaemia. Both proteins reached maximal concentrations after 48 hours, followed by a subsequent persistent decrease. Maximal neutrophil gelatinase—associated lipocalin and calprotectin concentrations were 9-fold and 69-fold higher than their respective baseline values. The glomerular filtration rate was only transiently impaired at the first post-operative day after ischaemia

  14. Fecal calprotectin as a biomarker of intestinal graft versus host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Fryderyk; Marklund, Stefan; Werner, Mårten; Palmqvist, Richard; Wahlin, Björn Engelbrekt; Wahlin, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The diagnosis of gastrointestinal graft versus host disease (GI-GVHD) is based on clinical symptoms and histological findings. In clinical practice, it is often difficult to decide whether abdominal symptoms in an allogeneic transplant recipient are caused by GVHD or other disorders. Endoscopic biopsies are helpful in establishing the diagnosis, but endoscopy is not always possible to perform due to poor general condition of the patients. No biomarkers are routinely used to predict GVHD. The aim of fecal calprotectin and alpha-1 antitrypsin testing in our study was to find out whether determination of the concentrations of these proteins may be used as a screening method for enteric GVHD. We studied prospectively 51 patients, 8 of whom developed GI-GVHD. Our data demonstrate that elevated fecal calprotectin levels were significantly associated with presence of GI-GVHD. We found a positive association between high F-calprotectin and severe gastrointestinal GVHD. In bivariate analysis, only calprotectin but not alpha-1 antitrypsin was independently associated with GI-GVHD. Testing for fecal calprotectin after allogeneic stem cell transplantation may be a useful screening tool. PMID:25605402

  15. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  16. Proinsulin and IGFBP-1 predicts mortality in an elderly population

    OpenAIRE

    Chisalita, Ioana Simona; Dahlström, Ulf; Arnqvist, Hans; Alehagen, Urban

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: High IGFBP-1 in elderly subjects is related to all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. We studied the relation of IGFBP-1 to cardiometabolic risk factors and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, and also the impact of proinsulin and insulin on this association in an unselected elderly primary health care population. HYPOTHESIS: Our hypothesis was that proinsulin and insulin may have an impact on the association of high IGFBP-1 levels with all-cause and CV-mortality in elde...

  17. Fecal calprotectin in coeliac disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capone, Pietro; Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Caporaso, Nicola; Tortora, Raffaella

    2014-01-01

    We would like to share with the readers the results of our experience in 50 celiac disease (CD) patients, enrolled between September 2012 and April 2013, who were referred to our third-level CD Unit. The fecal calprotectin (FC) concentration of 50 adults with newly diagnosed CD was compared to that of a control group of 50 healthy subjects. FC level was determined by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay with diagnostic cut-off of 75 μg/g. In addition, we tried to correlate the FC level with symptoms, histological severity of CD (Marsh grade) and level of tissue transglutaminase antibodies (aTg) in CD patients. Finally, FC level was increased in five CD patients and in four controls (10% vs 8%, P = NS); mean FC concentration of patients and controls were 57.7 (SD ± 29.1) and 45.1 (SD ± 38.4) respectively. Furthermore, no significant correlation was seen between FC levels and symptoms/Marsh grade/aTg. The five CD patients did not show inflammatory lesions (e.g., ulcers, erosions) at upper endoscopy. The four healthy controls with positive FC were followed-up for further six months; in this observational period they did not show clinical signs of any underlying disease. On these bases, we think that FC is not able to investigate the subclinical inflammatory changes of active CD and FC should be considered a useless tool in the diagnostic work-up of uncomplicated CD but it should be accompanied by aTg when ruling out organic disease in patients with irritable bowel syndrome. PMID:24574734

  18. Low expression of thiosulfate sulfurtransferase (rhodanese) predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krueger, Katharina; Koch, Kathrin; Jühling, Anja; Tepel, Martin; Scholze, Alexandra

    To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients.......To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients....

  19. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter;

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy.......Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  20. Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Oh, Chang-Mo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Cho, Hyunsoon; Lee, Jong-Keun; Lee, Duk Hyoung; Lee, Kang Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate of Korea’s current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2016. Materials and Methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2013 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2014 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2016 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against obser...

  1. Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Mortality after Charcoal Burning Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Chin; Tseng, Yi-Chia; Huang, Wen-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Yang, Huang-Yu; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Chen, Hui-Ling; Fu, Jen-Fen; Lin, Wey-Ran; Wang, I-Kuan; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2016-01-01

    A paucity of literature exists on risk factors for mortality in charcoal burning suicide. In this observational study, we analyzed the data of 126 patients with charcoal burning suicide that seen between 2002 and 2013. Patients were grouped according to status of renal damage as acute kidney injury (N = 49) or non-acute kidney injury (N = 77). It was found that patients with acute kidney injury suffered severer complications such as respiratory failure (P = 0.002), myocardial injury (P = 0.049), hepatic injury (P acute kidney injury. Moreover, patients with acute kidney injury suffered longer hospitalization duration (16.9 ± 18.3 versus 10.7 ± 10.9, P = 0.002) and had higher mortality rate (8.2% versus 0%, P = 0.011) than patients without injury. In a multivariate Cox regression model, it was demonstrated that serum creatinine level (P = 0.019) and heart rate (P = 0.022) were significant risk factors for mortality. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with acute kidney injury suffered lower cumulative survival than without injury (P = 0.016). In summary, the overall mortality rate of charcoal burning suicide population was 3.2%, and acute kidney injury was a powerful predictor of mortality. Further studies are warranted. PMID:27430168

  2. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend; Avlund, Kirsten; Holst, Claus

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link......, as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and...

  3. Predicting drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, W.; Wolf, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with 21st century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread dieback. A major shortcoming of current vegetation models is the inability to account for mortality of overstory trees during extreme drought due to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds. In this talk, I discuss two modeling efforts to predict drought-induced tree mortality in the western United States. In the first, we identify a lethal drought threshold in the loss of vascular transport capacity from xylem cavitation, which provides insight into what initiates mortality, in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States. We then use the hydraulic-based threshold to produce a hindcast of a drought-induced forest dieback and compare predictions against three independent regional mortality datasets. The hydraulic threshold predicted major regional patterns of tree mortality with high accuracy based on field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. Climate model simulations project increasing drought stress in this region that exceeds the observed mortality threshold in the high emissions scenario by the 2050s, likely triggering further widespread diebacks. In the second approach, we build a dynamic plant hydraulic model into a land-surface model and compare predictions against observed mortality patterns across multiple species. These methods provide powerful and tractable approaches for incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  4. Fecal calprotectin is a useful marker to diagnose ulcerative colitis from irritable bowel syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid Kalantari; Akhtar Taheri; Majid Yaran

    2015-01-01

    Background: This study was aimed to evaluate the predictive value of fecal calprotectin in patients with ulcerative colitis from patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Materials and Methods: Between May and October 2013, 88 adult patients, between the age 18 and 65 years with a history of chronic diarrhea of unknown origin were assessed. Standard colonoscopies were performed in all patients to assess ulcerative colitis. Before colonoscopies, they were asked to supply a stool speci...

  5. Fecal immunochemical test as a biomarker for inflammatory bowel diseases: can it rival fecal calprotectin?

    OpenAIRE

    Kato, Jun; Hiraoka, Sakiko; Nakarai, Asuka; Takashima, Shiho; Inokuchi, Toshihiro; Ichinose, Masao

    2016-01-01

    Accurate evaluation of disease activity is essential for choosing an appropriate treatment and follow-up plan for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Endoscopy is required for accurately evaluating disease activity, but the procedures are sometimes invasive and burdensome to patients. Therefore, alternative non-invasive methods for evaluating or predicting disease activity including mucosal status are desirable. Fecal calprotectin (Fcal) is the most widely used fecal marker for IB...

  6. Fecal calprotectin in inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsham, Natalie E; Sherwood, Roy A

    2016-01-01

    Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and irritable bowel syndrome share many symptoms. While irritable bowel syndrome is a functional bowel disorder for which no specific treatment is available, the range of effective therapies for IBD is evolving rapidly. Accurate diagnosis of IBD is therefore essential. Clinical assessment, together with various imaging modalities and endoscopy, has been the mainstay of diagnosis for many years. Fecal biomarkers of gastrointestinal inflammation have appeared in the past decade, of which calprotectin, a neutrophil cytosolic protein, has been studied the most. Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are chronic remitting and relapsing diseases, and objective assessment of disease activity and response to treatment are important. This review focuses on the use of fecal calprotectin measurements in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with IBD. PMID:26869808

  7. [Fecal Calprotectin in Inflammatory Bowel Disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun

    2016-05-25

    Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis comprise conditions characterized by chronic, relapsing immune activation and inflammation within the gastrointestinal tract. Objective estimation of intestinal inflammation is the mainstay in the diagnosis and observation of IBD, but is primarily dependent on expensive and invasive procedures such as endoscopy. Therefore, a simple, noninvasive, inexpensive, and accurate test would be extremely important in clinical practice. Fecal calprotectin is a calcium-containing protein released into the lumen that is excreted in feces during acute and chronic inflammation. It is well-researched, noninvasive, and has high sensitivity and specificity for identification of inflammation in IBD. This review will focus on the use of fecal calprotectin to help diagnose, monitor, and determine treatment in IBD. PMID:27206433

  8. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health. PMID:24990431

  9. 21 CFR 866.5180 - Fecal calprotectin immunological test system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fecal calprotectin immunological test system. 866.5180 Section 866.5180 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES IMMUNOLOGY AND MICROBIOLOGY DEVICES Immunological Test Systems § 866.5180 Fecal calprotectin immunological...

  10. A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saul J Newman

    Full Text Available Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

  11. Fecal calprotectin in inflammatory bowel disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walsham NE

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Natalie E Walsham,1 Roy A Sherwood2 1Department of Clinical Biochemistry, University Hospital Lewisham, Lewisham, 2Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Viapath at King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK Abstract: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD and irritable bowel syndrome share many symptoms. While irritable bowel syndrome is a functional bowel disorder for which no specific treatment is available, the range of effective therapies for IBD is evolving rapidly. Accurate diagnosis of IBD is therefore essential. Clinical assessment, together with various imaging modalities and endoscopy, has been the mainstay of diagnosis for many years. Fecal biomarkers of gastrointestinal inflammation have appeared in the past decade, of which calprotectin, a neutrophil cytosolic protein, has been studied the most. Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are chronic remitting and relapsing diseases, and objective assessment of disease activity and response to treatment are important. This review focuses on the use of fecal calprotectin measurements in the diagnosis and monitoring of patients with IBD. Keywords: calprotectin, Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, inflammation 

  12. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landman, Gijs W D; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H; Bakker, Stephan J L; Groeneveld, Geert H; Bilo, Henk J G; van Hateren, Kornelis J J

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients wit

  13. Calprotectin is released from human skeletal muscle tissue during exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Ole Hartvig; Andersen, Kasper; Fischer, Christian;

    2008-01-01

    skeletal muscle following IL-6 infusion compared to controls. Furthermore, S100A8 and S100A9 mRNA levels were up-regulated 5-fold in human skeletal muscle following cycle ergometer exercise for 3 h at approximately 60% of in young healthy males (n = 8). S100A8 and S100A9 form calprotectin, which is known...... as an acute phase reactant. Plasma calprotectin increased 5-fold following acute cycle ergometer exercise in humans, but not following IL-6 infusion. To identify the source of calprotectin, healthy males (n = 7) performed two-legged dynamic knee extensor exercise for 3 h with a work load of...... approximately 50% of peak power output and arterial-femoral venous differences were obtained. Arterial plasma concentrations for calprotectin increased 2-fold compared to rest and there was a net release of calprotectin from the working muscle. In conclusion, IL-6 infusion and muscle contractions induce...

  14. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF1 mice and beagles exposed to 60Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

  15. Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels; Weikop, Pia; Romner, Bertil; Olsen, Niels Vidiendal

    2013-01-01

    Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

  16. Fecal calprotectin excretion in preterm infants during the neonatal period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole Rougé

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Fecal calprotectin has been proposed as a non-invasive marker of intestinal inflammation in inflammatory bowel disease in adults and children. Fecal calprotectin levels have been reported to be much higher in both healthy full-term and preterm infants than in children and adults. OBJECTIVE: To determine the time course of fecal calprotectin (f-calprotectin excretion in preterm infants from birth until hospital discharge and to identify factors influencing f-calprotectin levels in the first weeks of life, including bacterial establishment in the gut. METHODOLOGY: F-calprotectin was determined using an ELISA assay in 147 samples obtained prospectively from 47 preterm infants (gestational age, and birth-weight interquartiles 27-29 weeks, and 880-1320 g, respectively at birth, and at 2-week intervals until hospital discharge. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Although median f-calprotectin excretion was 138 microg/g, a wide range of inter- and intra-individual variation in f-calprotectin values (from day 3 to day 78 was observed (86% and 67%, respectively. In multivariate regression analysis, f-calprotectin correlated negatively with ante and per natal antibiotic treatment (p = 0.001, and correlated positively with the volume of enteral feeding (mL/kg/d (p = 0.009, the need to interrupt enteral feeding (p = 0.001, and prominent gastrointestinal colonization by Clostridium sp (p = 0.019 and Staphylococcus sp (p = 0.047. CONCLUSION: During the first weeks of life, the high f-calprotectin values observed in preterm infants could be linked to the gut bacterial establishment.

  17. Fecal Calprotectin Excretion in Preterm Infants during the Neonatal Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rougé, Carole; Butel, Marie-José; Piloquet, Hugues; Ferraris, Laurent; Legrand, Arnaud; Vodovar, Michel; Voyer, Marcel; de la Cochetière, Marie-France; Darmaun, Dominique; Rozé, Jean-Christophe

    2010-01-01

    Background Fecal calprotectin has been proposed as a non-invasive marker of intestinal inflammation in inflammatory bowel disease in adults and children. Fecal calprotectin levels have been reported to be much higher in both healthy full-term and preterm infants than in children and adults. Objective To determine the time course of fecal calprotectin (f-calprotectin) excretion in preterm infants from birth until hospital discharge and to identify factors influencing f-calprotectin levels in the first weeks of life, including bacterial establishment in the gut. Methodology F-calprotectin was determined using an ELISA assay in 147 samples obtained prospectively from 47 preterm infants (gestational age, and birth-weight interquartiles 27–29 weeks, and 880–1320 g, respectively) at birth, and at 2-week intervals until hospital discharge. Principal Findings Although median f-calprotectin excretion was 138 µg/g, a wide range of inter- and intra-individual variation in f-calprotectin values (from day 3 to day 78) was observed (86% and 67%, respectively). In multivariate regression analysis, f-calprotectin correlated negatively with ante and per natal antibiotic treatment (p = 0.001), and correlated positively with the volume of enteral feeding (mL/kg/d) (p = 0.009), the need to interrupt enteral feeding (p = 0.001), and prominent gastrointestinal colonization by Clostridium sp (p = 0.019) and Staphylococcus sp (p = 0.047). Conclusion During the first weeks of life, the high f-calprotectin values observed in preterm infants could be linked to the gut bacterial establishment. PMID:20552029

  18. Proteomics Improves the Prediction of Burns Mortality: Results from Regression Spline Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Finnerty, Celeste C.; Ju, Hyunsu; Spratt, Heidi; Victor, Sundar; Jeschke, Marc G.; Hegde, Sachin; Bhavnani, Suresh K.; Luxon, Bruce A.; Allan R Brasier; Herndon, David N

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of mortality in severely burned patients remains unreliable. Although clinical covariates and plasma protein abundance have been used with varying degrees of success, the triad of burn size, inhalation injury, and age remains the most reliable predictor. We investigated the effect of combining proteomics variables with these three clinical covariates on prediction of mortality in burned children. Serum samples were collected from 330 burned children (burns covering >25% of the tota...

  19. The predictive value of arterial and valvular calcification for mortality and cardiovascular events

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoll, Rachel; Michael Y. Henein

    2014-01-01

    A review of the predictive ability of arterial and valvular calcification has shown an additive effect of calcification in more than 1 location in predicting mortality and coronary heart disease, with mitral annual calcification being a particularly strong predictor. In individual arteries and valves there is a clear association between calcification presence, extent and progression and future cardiovascular events and mortality in asymptomatic, symptomatic and high risk patients, although ad...

  20. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  1. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosero-Bixby Luis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS. Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow, are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in

  2. Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, J

    2012-09-01

    Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

  3. Proteomics Improves the Prediction of Burns Mortality: Results from Regression Spline Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnerty, Celeste C.; Ju, Hyunsu; Spratt, Heidi; Victor, Sundar; Jeschke, Marc G.; Hegde, Sachin; Bhavnani, Suresh K.; Luxon, Bruce A.; Brasier, Allan R.; Herndon, David N.

    2012-01-01

    Prediction of mortality in severely burned patients remains unreliable. Although clinical covariates and plasma protein abundance have been used with varying degrees of success, the triad of burn size, inhalation injury, and age remains the most reliable predictor. We investigated the effect of combining proteomics variables with these three clinical covariates on prediction of mortality in burned children. Serum samples were collected from 330 burned children (burns covering >25% of the total body surface area) between admission and the time of the first operation for clinical chemistry analyses and proteomic assays of cytokines. Principal component analysis revealed that serum protein abundance and the clinical covariates each provided independent information regarding patient survival. To determine whether combining proteomics with clinical variables improves prediction of patient mortality, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines, since the relationships between analytes and mortality were not linear. Combining these factors increased overall outcome prediction accuracy from 52% to 81% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.82 to 0.95. Thus, the predictive accuracy of burns mortality is substantially improved by combining protein abundance information with clinical covariates in a multivariate adaptive regression splines classifier, a model currently being validated in a prospective study. PMID:22686201

  4. Predictive Factor for Mortality and Morbidity of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2013-02-01

    Conclusions: Open repair and EVAR can both be safely performed in patients treated for elective and emergency infrarenal AAA. EVAR has perioperative advantages of reduced blood loss and blood transfusion, as well as decreased mortality and duration of post-operative hospital stay. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of serum chemistry values for mortality and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2013; 2(1.000: 8-15

  5. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    OpenAIRE

    Manuela de Lucas; Miguel Ferrer; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

  6. Cystatin C at Admission in the Intensive Care Unit Predicts Mortality among Elderly Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Dalboni, Maria Aparecida; Beraldo, Daniel de Oliveira; Quinto, Beata Marie Redublo; Blaya, Rosângela; Narciso, Roberto; Oliveira, Moacir; Monte, Júlio César Martins; Durão, Marcelino de Souza; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Pavão, Oscar Fernando; Batista, Marcelo Costa

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Cystatin C has been used in the critical care setting to evaluate renal function. Nevertheless, it has also been found to correlate with mortality, but it is not clear whether this association is due to acute kidney injury (AKI) or to other mechanism. Objective. To evaluate whether serum cystatin C at intensive care unit (ICU) entry predicts AKI and mortality in elderly patients. Materials and Methods. It was a prospective study of ICU elderly patients without AKI at admission. ...

  7. Prediction of mortality in stroke patients using multilayer perceptron neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Süt, Necdet; ÇELİK, Yahya

    2012-01-01

    We aim ed to predict mortality in stroke patients by using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks. Materials and methods: A data set consisting of 584 stroke patients was analyzed using MLP neural networks. The effect of prognostic factors (age, hospitalization time, sex, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, embolism, stroke type, infection, diabetes mellitus, and ischemic heart disease) on mortality in stroke were trained with 6 different MLP algorithms [quick propagation (QP), Levenberg...

  8. Osteoprotegerin independently predicts mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Mette; Hilden, Jørgen; Kastrup, Jens;

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. To elucidate the prognostic power of serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods. Serum OPG levels were measured in the CLARICOR trial cohort of 4063 patients with stable CAD on blood samples drawn at randomization. The follow-up was 2...... predictor for all-cause mortality. Importantly, OPG remained an independent predictor of mortality even after adjustment for both clinical and conventional cardiovascular risk markers (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.6-3.9, p < 0.0001]). Conclusions. Serum OPG has a long-lasting independent predictive power as to all......-cause mortality and cardiovascular death in patients with stable CAD....

  9. Predicting mortality in the intensive care unit: a comparison of the University Health Consortium expected probability of mortality and the Mortality Prediction Model III

    OpenAIRE

    Lipshutz, Angela K.M.; Feiner, John R.; Grimes, Barbara; Gropper, Michael A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Quality benchmarks are increasingly being used to compare the delivery of healthcare, and may affect reimbursement in the future. The University Health Consortium (UHC) expected probability of mortality (EPM) is one such quality benchmark. Although the UHC EPM is used to compare quality across UHC members, it has not been prospectively validated in the critically ill. We aimed to define the performance characteristics of the UHC EPM in the critically ill and compare its ability to ...

  10. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

    2016-03-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  11. The MDS Mortality Risk Index: The evolution of a method for predicting 6-month mortality in nursing home residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parker-Oliver Debra

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate prognosis is vital to the initiation of advance care planning particularly in a vulnerable, at risk population such as care home residents. The aim of this paper is to report on the revision and simplification of the MDS Mortality Rating Index (MMRI for use in clinical practice to predict the probability of death in six months for care home residents. Methods The design was a secondary analysis of a US Minimum Data Set (MDS for long term care residents using regression analysis to identify predictors of mortality within six months. Results Using twelve easy to collect items, the probability of mortality within six months was accurately predicted within the MDS database. The items are: admission to the care home within three months; lost weight unintentionally in past three months; renal failure; chronic heart failure; poor appetite; male; dehydrated; short of breath; active cancer diagnosis; age; deteriorated cognitive skills in past three months; activities of daily living score. Conclusion A lack of recognition of the proximity of death is often blamed for inappropriate admission to hospital at the end of an older person's life. An accurate prognosis for older adults living in a residential or nursing home can facilitate end of life decision making and planning for preferred place of care at the end of life. The original MMRI was derived and validated from a large database of long term care residents in the USA. However, this simplification of the revised index (MMRI-R may provide a means for facilitating prognostication and end of life discussions for application outside the USA where the MDS is not in use. Prospective testing is needed to further test the accuracy of the MMRI-R and its application in the UK and other non-MDS settings.

  12. Analysis of factors predictive of mortality in alcoholic hepatitis and derivation and validation of the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score

    OpenAIRE

    Forrest, E H; Evans, C D J; Stewart, S; Phillips, M; Oo, Y H; McAvoy, N C; Fisher, N C; Singhal, S; Brind, A; Haydon, G; O’Grady, J; Day, C P; Hayes, P C; Murray, L.S.; Morris, A. J.

    2005-01-01

    Introduction: Alcoholic hepatitis is associated with a high short term mortality. We aimed to identify those factors associated with mortality and define a simple score which would predict outcome in our population.

  13. Predictive Value of POSSUM and ACPGBI Scoring in Mortality and Morbidity of Colorectal Resection: A Case–Control Study

    OpenAIRE

    Teeuwen, Pascal H. E.; Bremers, A.J.A.; Groenewoud, J.M.M.; van Laarhoven, C. J. H. M.; Bleichrodt, R.P.

    2010-01-01

    Background Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accura...

  14. Preoperative risk score predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection in a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chun-Ming; Yin, Wen-Yao; Su, Yu-Chieh; Wei, Chang-Kao; Lee, Cheng-Hung; Juang, Shiun-Yang; Chen, Yi-Ting; Chen, Jin-Cherng; Lee, Ching-Chih

    2014-09-01

    The impact of important preexisting comorbidities, such as liver and renal disease, on the outcome of liver resection remains unclear. Identification of patients at risk of mortality will aid in improving preoperative preparations. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a population-based score based on available preoperative and predictable parameters predicting 90-day mortality after liver resection using data from a hepatitis endemic country.We identified 13,159 patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2006 in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a randomly selected half of the total patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction score for estimating the risk of 90-day mortality by patient demographics, preoperative liver disease and comorbidities, indication for surgery, and procedure type. The score was validated with the remaining half of the patients.Overall 90-day mortality was 3.9%. Predictive characteristics included in the model were age, preexisting cirrhosis-related complications, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, renal disease, malignancy, and procedure type. Four risk groups were stratified by mortality scores of 1.1%, 2.2%, 7.7%, and 15%. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications were the strongest predictors. The score discriminated well in both the derivation and validation sets with c-statistics of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.This population-based score could identify patients at risk of 90-day mortality before liver resection. Preexisting renal disease and cirrhosis-related complications had the strongest influence on mortality. This score enables preoperative risk stratification, decision-making, quality assessment, and counseling for individual patients. PMID:25211044

  15. Diagnostic Value of Fecal Calprotectin in Patient with Ulcerative Colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Zamani, Hamed; Barzin, Gilda; Yousefinia, Mahsa; Mohammadkhani, Ashraf; Ostovaneh, Mohammad Reza; Sharifi, Amir Houshang; Tayebi, Sirous; Malekzadeh, Reza; Ansari, Reza

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by recurrent episodes of inflammation limited to the mucosal layer of the colon. Calprotectin is a zinc and calcium binding protein derived from neutrophils and monocytes. It is easily detectable in tissue samples, body fluids, and stools, which makes it a potentially valuable marker of inflammation. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the value of fecal calprotectin (FC) as a marker of disease activity in patients with UC. METHODS S...

  16. Fecal Calprotectin in Healthy Children Aged 1-4 Years

    OpenAIRE

    Qingling Zhu; Feng Li; Junli Wang; Lixiao Shen; Xiaoyang Sheng

    2016-01-01

    Objective Calprotectin has been well emulated recently in adults as well as in children. The aim of this study was to assess fecal calprotectin concentrations in healthy children aged from 1 to 4 years. Methods Volunteers were enlisted from 3 nurseries. A brief questionnaire was used to ensure these children meet the inclusion criteria, and some clinical and sociodemographic factors were collected. Anthro software (version 3.1) was used to calculated Length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ), weight-for-...

  17. The role of fecal calprotectin in investigating inflammatory bowel diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa Erbayrak; Cansel Turkay; Elife Eraslan; Hulya Cetinkaya; Benan Kasapoglu; Mehmet Bektas

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Invasive and non-invasive tests can be used to evaluate the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of fecal calprotectin in evaluating inflammatory bowel disease activity and the correlation of fecal calprotectin with the erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C reactive protein values in inflammatory bowel disease. METHOD: Sixty-five patients affected with inflammatory bowel disease were enrolled. Twenty outpatie...

  18. Machine Learning Methods for Mortality Prediction in Patients with ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vomlel, Jiří; Kružík, H.; Tůma, P.; Přeček, J.; Hutyra, M.

    Prague : Faculty of Management, University of Economics, Prague, 2012 - (Kroupa, T.; Vejnarová, J.), s. 204-213 ISBN 978-80-245-1885-5. [The Ninth Workshop on Uncertainty Processing. Mariánské Lázně (CZ), 12.09.2012-15.09.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Machine Learning * Acute Myocardial Infarction * Mortality Prediction Subject RIV: JD - Computer Applications, Robotics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/vomlel-machine learning methods for mortality prediction in patients with st elevation myocardial infarction.pdf

  19. Variable selection and regression analysis for the prediction of mortality rates associated with foodborne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amene, E; Hanson, L A; Zahn, E A; Wild, S R; Döpfer, D

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to apply a novel statistical method for variable selection and a model-based approach for filling data gaps in mortality rates associated with foodborne diseases using the WHO Vital Registration mortality dataset. Correlation analysis and elastic net regularization methods were applied to drop redundant variables and to select the most meaningful subset of predictors. Whenever predictor data were missing, multiple imputation was used to fill in plausible values. Cluster analysis was applied to identify similar groups of countries based on the values of the predictors. Finally, a Bayesian hierarchical regression model was fit to the final dataset for predicting mortality rates. From 113 potential predictors, 32 were retained after correlation analysis. Out of these 32 predictors, eight with non-zero coefficients were selected using the elastic net regularization method. Based on the values of these variables, four clusters of countries were identified. The uncertainty of predictions was large for countries within clusters lacking mortality rates, and it was low for a cluster that had mortality rate information. Our results demonstrated that, using Bayesian hierarchical regression models, a data-driven clustering of countries and a meaningful subset of predictors can be used to fill data gaps in foodborne disease mortality. PMID:26785774

  20. Evaluation of ELISA and rapid test for the analysis of fecal Calprotectin

    OpenAIRE

    Albeer, Merna

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background Calprotectin is a protein found in the cytoplasm of neutrophile granulocytes. In the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), calprotectin is released during chronic inflammation in the gut. Activation of neutrophils during the inflammation is followed by activation and secretion of pro-inflammatory molecules such as calprotectin. Calprotectin is stable in stool up to 7 days and can therefore be used as a non-invasive marker for diagnosis, treatment and measurement of t...

  1. Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, William B; Pincus, Zachary

    2016-02-01

    Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28-38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well-characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all-cause mortality from mid-adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all-cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of 'damage accrual', such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack-years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan-predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist. PMID:26446764

  2. Applications of Machine learning in Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths for the female population in both developed and developing countries. In this work we have used the baseline descriptive data about the incidence (new cancer cases) of in situ breast cancer among Wisconsin females. The documented data were from the most recent 12-years period for which data are available. Wiscons in cancer incidence and mortality (deaths due to cancer) that occurred were also considered in this work. Artificial Neural network (ANN) have been successfully applied to problems in the prediction of the number of new cancer cases and mortality. Using artificial intelligence (AI) in this study, the numbers of new cancer cases and mortality that may occur are predicted.

  3. MR-proANP improves prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Søren; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H; Galatius, Søren; Goetze, Jens P; Mogelvang, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    stroke or heart failure. RESULTS: During 5-year follow-up, MR-proANP was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and MACE (both p < 0.001). After adjustment for confounding risk factors (age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking, previous MI, BMI, eGFR, CRP, peak...... elevated in cardiovascular disease and predicts outcome in heart failure. However, knowledge of the prognostic value in acute myocardial infarction remains limited. METHODS: We prospectively included 680 patients with STEMI treated with primary-PCI, from September 2006 to December 2008. Blood samples were...... in MR-proANP. MR-proANP significantly increased C-statistics and reclassified 26% of the patients for all-cause mortality and 34% for MACE into higher or lower risk categories, matching actual event rates more accurately. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MR-proANP independently predicts all-cause mortality and...

  4. Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts mortality in medical inpatients with multiple chronic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, Vivian; Wu, Chia-Yi; Huang, Chun-Ta; Baune, Bernhard T; Tseng, Chia-Lin; McLachlan, Craig S

    2016-06-01

    Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an easy measurable laboratory marker used to evaluate systemic inflammation. Elevated NLR is associated with poor survival and increased morbidity in cancer and cardiovascular disease. However, the usefulness of NLR to predict morbidity and mortality in a hospital setting for patients with multiple chronic conditions has not been previously examined. In this study, we investigate the association between NLR and mortality in multimorbid medical inpatients. Two hundred thirty medical in-patients with chronic conditions were selected from a single academic medical center in Taiwan. Retrospective NLRs were calculated from routine full blood counts previously obtained during the initial hospital admission and at the time of discharge. Self-rated health (using a single-item question), medical disorders, depressive symptoms, and medical service utilization over a 1-year period were included in the analyses. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by reviewing electronic medical records and follow-up. The mortality rate at 2-year follow-up was 23%. Depression (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.7]), poor self-rated health (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.1-3.9]), being hospitalized 2 or more times in the previous year (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.2-4.6]), metastatic cancer (OR 4.7 [95% CI 2.3-9.7]), and chronic liver disease (OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.5-12.1]) were associated with 2-year mortality. The median (interquartile range) NLR at admission and discharge were 4.47 (2.4-8.7) and 3.65 (2.1-6.5), respectively. Two-year mortality rates were higher in patients with an elevated NLR at admission (NLR 3 = 27.6%) and discharge (NLR 3 = 29.1%). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that an elevated NLR >3.0 at admission (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.0-5.2]) and discharge (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1-5.0]) were associated with mortality independent of baseline age, sex, education, metastatic cancer, liver disease, depression, and previous hospitalization. Increased NLR is associated

  5. Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2012-04-01

    Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

  6. Risk prediction models for mortality in ambulatory patients with heart failure: a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Alba, Ana C; Agoritsas, Thomas; Jankowski, Milosz; Courvoisier, Delphine; Walter, Stephen D.; Guyatt, Gordon H; Ross, Heather J

    2013-01-01

    Optimal management of heart failure requires accurate assessment of prognosis. Many prognostic models are available. Our objective was to identify studies that evaluate the use of risk prediction models for mortality in ambulatory patients with heart failure and describe their performance and clinical applicability.

  7. Clinical picture and risk prediction of short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Lassus, Johan; Sionis, Alessandro;

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical picture and outcome of cardiogenic shock and to develop a risk prediction score for short-term mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CardShock study was a multicentre, prospective, observational study conducted between 2010 and 2012. Patie...

  8. Predicting perioperative mortality after oesophagectomy: a systematic review of performance and methods of multivariate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnell, I; Chincholkar, M; Eccles, M

    2015-01-01

    Predicting risk of perioperative mortality after oesophagectomy for cancer may assist patients to make treatment choices and allow balanced comparison of providers. The aim of this systematic review of multivariate prediction models is to report their performance in new patients, and compare study methods against current recommendations. We used PRISMA guidelines and searched Medline, Embase, and standard texts from 1990 to 2012. Inclusion criteria were English language articles reporting development and validation of prediction models of perioperative mortality after open oesophagectomy. Two reviewers screened articles and extracted data for methods, results, and potential biases. We identified 11 development, 10 external validation, and two clinical impact studies. Overestimation of predicted mortality was common (5-200% error), discrimination was poor to moderate (area under receiver operator curves ranged from 0.58 to 0.78), and reporting of potential bias was poor. There were potentially important case mix differences between modelling and validation samples, and sample sizes were considerably smaller than is currently recommended. Steyerberg and colleagues' model used the most 'transportable' predictors and was validated in the largest sample. Most models have not been adequately validated and reported performance has been unsatisfactory. There is a need to clarify definition, effect size, and selection of currently available candidate predictors for inclusion in prediction models, and to identify new ones strongly associated with outcome. Adoption of prediction models into practice requires further development and validation in well-designed large sample prospective studies. PMID:25231768

  9. Relevance of fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin in the post-operative management of inflammatory bowel diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccaro, Roberta; Angriman, Imerio; D'Incà, Renata

    2016-03-27

    The role of fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin has been extensively studied in many areas of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients' management. The post-operative setting in both Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has been less investigated although few promising results come from small, cross-sectional studies. Therefore, the current post-operative management still requires endoscopy 6-12 mo after intestinal resection for CD in order to exclude endoscopic recurrence and plan the therapeutic strategy. In patients who underwent restorative proctocolectomy, endoscopy is required whenever symptoms includes the possibility of pouchitis. There is emerging evidence that fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin are useful surrogate markers of inflammation in the post-operative setting, they correlate with the presence and severity of endoscopic recurrence according to Rutgeerts' score and possibly predict the subsequent clinical recurrence and response to therapy in CD patients. Similarly, fecal markers show a good correlation with the presence of pouchitis, as confirmed by endoscopy in operated UC patients. Fecal calprotectin seems to be able to predict the short-term development of pouchitis in asymptomatic patients and to vary according to response to medical treatment. The possibility of both fecal markers to used in the routine clinical practice for monitoring IBD patients in the post-operative setting should be confirmed in multicentric clinical trial with large sample set. An algorithm that can predict the optimal use and timing of fecal markers testing, the effective need and timing of endoscopy and the cost-effectiveness of these as a strategy of care would be of great interest. PMID:27022446

  10. The Role of Calprotectin in Pediatric Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Vaos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Calprotectin (CP is a calcium- and zinc-binding protein of the S100 family expressed mainly by neutrophils with important extracellular activity. The aim of the current review is to summarize the latest findings concerning the role of CP in a diverse range of inflammatory and noninflammatory conditions among children. Increasing evidence suggests the implication of CP in the diagnosis, followup, assessment of relapses, and response to treatment in pediatric pathological conditions, such as inflammatory bowel disease, necrotizing enterocolitis, celiac disease, intestinal cystic fibrosis, acute appendicitis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, Kawasaki disease, polymyositis-dermatomyositis, glomerulonephritis, IgA nephropathy, malaria, HIV infection, hyperzincemia and hypercalprotectinemia, and cancer. Further studies are required to provide insights into the actual role of CP in these pathological processes in pediatrics.

  11. Variation in GYS1 interacts with exercise and gender to predict cardiovascular mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Fredriksson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1 has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, the metabolic syndrome (MetS, male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T and APOE (-219G>T, epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR 1.9 [1.2-2.9], T2D (2.5 [1.7-3.8], earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2-2.5], physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.9] and smoking (1.5 [1.0-2.3] predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3-2.0]. Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/epsilon4, which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9-4.4]. Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1-1.2], high body mass index (BMI (1.0 [1.0-1.1], hypertension (1.9 [1.2-3.1], earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3-2.8] and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.8]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

  12. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S;

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making......PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU with...

  13. Postoperative Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Mortality in Medullary Thyroid Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Allen S.; Wang, Lu; Palmer, Frank L.; Yu, Changhong; Toset, Arnbjorn; Patel, Snehal; Kattan, Michael W.; Tuttle, R. Michael; Ganly, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Background Medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) is a rare thyroid cancer accounting for 5 % of all thyroid malignancies. The purpose of our study was to design a predictive nomogram for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) utilizing clinical, pathological, and biochemical variables in patients with MTC. Methods MTC patients managed entirely at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1986 and 2010 were identified. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were recorded, and variables predictive of CSM were identified by univariable analyses. A multivariable competing risk model was then built to predict the 10-year cancer specific mortality of MTC. All predictors of interest were added in the starting full model before selection, including age, gender, pre- and postoperative serum calcitonin, pre- and postoperative CEA, RET mutation status, perivascular invasion, margin status, pathologic T status, pathologic N status, and M status. Stepdown method was used in model selection to choose predictive variables. Results Of 249 MTC patients, 22.5 % (56/249) died from MTC, whereas 6.4 % (16/249) died secondary to other causes. Mean follow-up period was 87 ± 67 months. The seven variables with the highest predictive accuracy for cancer specific mortality included age, gender, postoperative calcitonin, perivascular invasion, pathologic T status, pathologic N status, and M status. These variables were used to create the final nomogram. Discrimination from the final nomogram was measured at 0.77 with appropriate calibration. Conclusions We describe the first nomogram that estimates cause-specific mortality in individual patients with MTC. This predictive nomogram will facilitate patient counseling in terms of prognosis and subsequent clinical follow up. PMID:25366585

  14. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  15. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.; Pedersen, Agnes N.; Pedersen, B.K.; Jorgensen, T.; Bruunsgaard, H.

    2009-01-01

    -old men and women. DESIGN Longitudinal study with 50- to 58-month follow-up. SETTING The 1914 cohort, a population-based cohort established in 1964 by the Research Center for Prevention and Health at Glostrup Hospital. PARTICIPANTS One hundred eighty-eight unselected 85-year-old Danes. MEASUREMENTS BDNF...... was measured in plasma and serum. The Danish National Register of Patients was used to collect data on morbidity. The primary outcome in Cox regression analyses was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Women with low plasma BDNF (lowest tertile) had greater all-cause mortality risk than women with high plasma...... BDNF (highest tertile) (hazard ratio=2.2, 95% confidence interval=1.1-4.7). Low plasma BDNF predicted mortality independently of activities of daily living; education; and a history of central nervous system disease, cerebrovascular accidents, cardiovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease, and...

  16. Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2015-01-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

  17. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides......For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace......, and with estimates from a comprehensive compilation of empirical data on the natural mortality of marine fishes. The comparisons are all in aggreement with the predictions from the model. We conclude that natural mortality scales with body length raised to a power around -1.6, with the asymptotic length...

  18. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads; Ganz, Melanie; Lauze, Francois Bernard;

    2011-01-01

    best predictive power for identification of patients at risk of mortality, with a hazard ratio of 15.6 (p < 0.001) for the 10% at greatest risk of death. Conclusions This study shows that it is not just the extent of aortic calcification that predicts risk of mortality, but also the distribution, shape...

  19. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria >30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9±18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R>1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R>3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R>5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions. PMID:26951378

  20. Artificial neural networks based early clinical prediction of mortality after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukić, Stevo; Ćojbasić, Žarko; Perić, Zoran; Milošević, Zoran; Spasić, Mirjana; Pavlović, Vukašin; Milojević, Andrija

    2012-12-01

    Numerous outcome prediction models have been developed for mortality and functional outcome after spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). However, no outcome prediction model for ICH has considered the impact of care restriction. To develop and compare results of the artificial neural networks (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models, based on initial clinical parameters, for prediction of mortality after spontaneous ICH. Analysis has been conducted on consecutive dataset of patients with spontaneous ICH, over 5-year period in tertiary care academic hospital. Patients older than 18 years were eligible for inclusion if they had been presented within 6 h from the start of symptoms and had evidence of spontaneous supratentorial ICH on initial brain computed tomography within 24 h. Initial clinical parameters have been used to develop LR and ANN prediction models for hospital mortality as outcome measure. Models have been accessed for discrimination and calibration abilities. We have analyzed 411 patients (199 males and 212 females) with spontaneous ICH, medically treated and not withdrawn from therapy, with average age of 67.35 years. From them, 256 (62.29%) patients died during hospital treatment and 155 (37.71%) patients survived. In the observed dataset, ANN model overall correctly classified outcome in 93.55% of patients, compared with 79.32% of correct classification for the LR model. Discrimination and calibration parameters indicate that both models show an adequate fit of expected and observed values, with superiority of ANN model. Our results favour the ANN model for prediction of mortality after spontaneous ICH. Further studies of the strengths and limitations of this method are needed with larger prospective samples. PMID:22674031

  1. Diastolic myocardial dysfunction by tissue Doppler imaging predicts mortality in patients with cerebral infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming J; Jørgensen, Peter G; Møgelvang, Rasmus;

    2015-01-01

    Several clinical prediction score models have been investigated for predicting mortality in patients with cerebral infarction. However, none of these include echocardiographic measures. Our objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) of the myocardium in patients......-statistics and reclassification analysis were performed for global and segmental e'. During a median follow-up of 3 years 42 patients died. Patients who died had significantly impaired systolic and diastolic function (determined by LVEF and E/e'). The risk of dying increased with decreasing global e', being...... approximately 13 times higher for patients in the lowest tertile compared to patients in the highest tertile (HR 13.4 [3.2;56.3], p < 0.001). Patients with significantly impaired global e' showed increased mortality after multivariable adjustment for: LVEF, E/e', age, gender, heart failure, chronic obstructive...

  2. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Carrara

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  3. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients. PMID:26557154

  4. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    Despite a potentially effective therapy for adult respiratory failure, a general agreement on venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) has not been reached among institutions due to its invasiveness and high resource usage. To establish consensus on the timing of intervention, large ECMO organizations have published the respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and the ECMOnet score, which allow users to predict hospital mortality for candidates with their pre-ECMO presentations. This study was aimed to test the predictive powers of these published scores in a medium-sized cohort enrolling adults treated with VV-ECMO for acute respiratory failure, and develop an institutional prediction model under the framework of the 3 scores if a superior predictive power could be achieved. This retrospective study included 107 adults who received VV-ECMO for severe acute respiratory failure (a PaO2/FiO2 ratio failure assessment (SOFA) score before VV-ECMO. The predictive power of hospital mortality of each score was presented as the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an institutional prediction model. The surviving to discharge rate was 55% (n = 59). All of the 3 published scores had a real but poor predictive power of hospital mortality in this study. The AUROCs of RESP score, ECMOnet score, and SOFA score were 0.662 (P = 0.004), 0.616 (P = 0.04), and 0.667 (P = 0.003), respectively. An institutional prediction model was established from these score parameters and presented as follows: hospital mortality (Y) = -3.173 + 0.208 × (pre-ECMO SOFA score) + 0.148 × (pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation day) + 1.021 × (immunocompromised status). Compared with the 3 scores, the institutional model had a significantly higher AUROC (0.779; P failure. PMID:27336901

  5. Pulmonary Function Measures Predict Mortality Differently in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis versus Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Shelley L.; Nambiar, Anoop M.; Tayob, Nabihah; Sundaram, Baskaran; Han, MeiLan K.; Gross, Barry H.; Kazerooni, Ella A.; Chughtai, Aamer R.; Lagstein, Amir; Myers, Jeffrey L.; Murray, Susan; Toews, Galen B.; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R.

    2010-01-01

    The composite physiologic index(CPI) was derived to represent the extent of fibrosis on high resolution computed tomography, adjusting for emphysema in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis(IPF). We hypothesized longitudinal change in CPI would better predict mortality than forced expiratory volume in 1 second(FEV1), forced vital capacity(FVC), or diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide(DLCO) in all patients with IPF, and especially in those with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema...

  6. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  7. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-11-15

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  8. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, V E; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I; Pneumatikos, I A

    2013-11-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. PMID:24149496

  9. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  10. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. (paper)

  11. Predicting mortality among hospitalized children with respiratory illness in Western Kenya, 2009-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gideon O Emukule

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pediatric respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. We evaluated a modified respiratory index of severity in children (mRISC scoring system as a standard tool to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from children <5 years old who were hospitalized with respiratory illness at Siaya District Hospital from 2009-2012. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to identify patient characteristics predictive for in-hospital mortality. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance statistic. Using bootstrap samples, we re-estimated the coefficients and the optimism of the model. The mRISC score for each child was developed by adding up the points assigned to each factor associated with mortality based on the coefficients in the multivariable model. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3,581 children hospitalized with respiratory illness; including 218 (6% who died. Low weight-for-age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.2], very low weight-for-age (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4, caretaker-reported history of unconsciousness (aOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.4, inability to drink or breastfeed (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8, chest wall in-drawing (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.1, and being not fully conscious on physical exam (aOR = 8.0; 95% CI 5.1-12.6 were independently associated with mortality. The positive predictive value for mortality increased with increasing mRISC scores. CONCLUSIONS: A modified RISC scoring system based on a set of easily measurable clinical features at admission was able to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.

  12. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Pereira de Araujo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1 or positive (G2 for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%. During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016. The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022 and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

  13. Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Richard Dapp

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

  14. Chronic kidney disease predicts long-term mortality after major lower extremity amputation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Assi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite low peri-operative mortality after major lower extremity amputation, long-term mortality remains substantial. Metabolic syndrome is increasing in incidence and prevalence at an alarming rate in the USA. Aim: This study was to determine whether metabolic syndrome predicts outcome after major lower extremity amputation. Patients and Methods: A retrospective review of charts between July 2005 and June 2010. Results: Fifty-four patients underwent a total of 60 major lower extremity amputations. Sixty percent underwent below-knee amputation and 40% underwent above-knee amputation. The 30-day mortality was 7% with no difference in level (below-knee amputation, 8%; above-knee amputation, 4%; P = 0.53. The mean follow-up time was 39.7 months. The 5-year survival was 54% in the whole group, and was independent of level of amputation (P = 0.24 or urgency of the procedure (P = 0.51. Survival was significantly decreased by the presence of underlying chronic kidney disease (P = 0.04 but not by other comorbidities (history of myocardial infarction, P = 0.79; metabolic syndrome, P = 0.64; diabetes mellitus, P = 0.56. Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is not associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes after lower extremity amputation. However, patients with chronic kidney disease constitute a sub-group of patients at higher risk of postoperative long-term mortality and may be a group to target for intervention.

  15. Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients Fatores preditivos de mortalidade em queimaduras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Lessa Soares de Macedo

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.As estatísticas de mortalidade em queimaduras podem ser incompletas se não levarem em consideração vários fatores que podem influenciar o óbito. Tradicionalmente, apenas a extensão da queimadura e a idade do paciente têm sido usadas como preditores de mortalidade em vítimas de queimaduras. Estas estimativas são úteis na assistência aos pacientes, interferindo em decisões médicas e financeiras no cuidado desses doentes. O objetivo desse estudo foi definir os preditores clínicos, microbiológicos e laboratoriais de mortalidade em pacientes queimados. Os autores realizaram uma análise univariada e multivariada de várias variáveis independentes para determinar os fatores preditivos de mortalidade em queimados. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 5,0%. A idade mais avançada, a extensão das queimaduras, a

  16. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  17. Abdominal obesity in Japanese-Brazilians: which measure is best for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marselle Rodrigues Bevilacqua

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to verify which anthropometric measure of abdominal obesity was the best predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Japanese-Brazilians. The study followed 1,581 subjects for 14 years. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, metabolic, and anthropometric data were collected. The dependent variable was vital status (alive or dead at the end of the study, and the independent variable was presence of abdominal obesity according to different baseline measures. The mortality rate was estimated, and Poisson regression was used to obtain mortality rate ratios with abdominal obesity, adjusted simultaneously for the other variables. The mortality rate was 10.68/thousand person-years. Male gender, age > 60 years, and arterial hypertension were independent risk factors for mortality. The results indicate that prevalence of abdominal obesity was high among Japanese-Brazilians, and that waist/hip ratio was the measure with the greatest capacity to predict mortality (especially cardiovascular mortality in this group.

  18. Serum creatinine level, a surrogate of muscle mass, predicts mortality in critically ill patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit

    2016-01-01

    Serum creatinine (SCr) has been widely used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Creatinine generation could be reduced in the setting of low skeletal muscle mass. Thus, SCr has also been used as a surrogate of muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with reduced survival in hospitalized patients, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Recently, studies have demonstrated high mortality in ICU patients with low admission SCr levels, reflecting that low muscle mass or malnutrition, are associated with increased mortality. However, SCr levels can also be influenced by multiple GFR- and non-GFR-related factors including age, diet, exercise, stress, pregnancy, and kidney disease. Imaging techniques, such as computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound, have recently been studied for muscle mass assessment and demonstrated promising data. This article aims to present the perspectives of the uses of SCr and other methods for prediction of muscle mass and outcomes of ICU patients. PMID:27162688

  19. Serum creatinine level, a surrogate of muscle mass, predicts mortality in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Kashani, Kianoush

    2016-05-01

    Serum creatinine (SCr) has been widely used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Creatinine generation could be reduced in the setting of low skeletal muscle mass. Thus, SCr has also been used as a surrogate of muscle mass. Low muscle mass is associated with reduced survival in hospitalized patients, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Recently, studies have demonstrated high mortality in ICU patients with low admission SCr levels, reflecting that low muscle mass or malnutrition, are associated with increased mortality. However, SCr levels can also be influenced by multiple GFR- and non-GFR-related factors including age, diet, exercise, stress, pregnancy, and kidney disease. Imaging techniques, such as computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound, have recently been studied for muscle mass assessment and demonstrated promising data. This article aims to present the perspectives of the uses of SCr and other methods for prediction of muscle mass and outcomes of ICU patients. PMID:27162688

  20. China's coal mine accident statistics analysis and one million tons mortality prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Tong

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the general rule of coal mine accidents in China in recent years, the data of coal mine accident in 2011-2015 is analyzed. The mathematical statistics method is used to analyze the occurrence year, type, season and area of the accident. The results of analysis shows that the coal mine accident has been reduced year by year, and the frequency of gas explosion is the highest. The frequency and the number of deaths in the second quarter of the year are the highest; Guizhou province, Hunan province, Yunnan province and Heilongjiang province are the accident prone provinces. GM (1, 1 dynamic prediction model is used to model and forecast the future million tons mortality in China. The forecast results show that the coal mine's million tons mortality rate of China showed a decreasing trend. The forecast results are scientific and reliable, and it is of great significance to the safety management of coal mine.

  1. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  2. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  3. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein predicts mortality and technique failure in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shou-Hsuan Liu

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: An elevated level of serum C-reactive protein (CRP is widely considered an indicator of an underlying inflammatory disease and a long-term prognostic predictor for dialysis patients. This cross-sectional cohort study was designed to assess the correlation between the level of high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP and the outcome of peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. METHODS: A total of 402 patients were stratified into 3 tertiles (lower, middle, upper according to serum HS-CRP level and and followed up from October 2009 to September 2011. During follow-up, cardiovascular events, infection episodes, technique failure, and mortality rate were recorded. RESULTS: During the 24-month follow-up, 119 of 402 patients (29.6% dropped out from PD, including 28 patients (7.0% who died, 81 patients (20.1% who switched to hemodialysis, and 10 patients (2.5% who underwent kidney transplantation. The results of Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test demonstrated a significant difference in the cumulative patient survival rate across the 3 tertiles (the lowest rate in upper tertile. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, only higher HS-CRP level, older age, the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM, lower serum albumin level, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Every 1 mg/L increase in HS-CRP level was independently predictive of a 1.4% increase in mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis also showed that higher HS-CRP level, the presence of DM, lower hemoglobin level, lower serum albumin level, higher dialysate/plasma creatinine ratio, and the occurrence of infective episodes and cardiovascular events during follow-up were independent predictors of technique failure. CONCLUSIONS: The present study shows the importance of HS-CRP in the prediction of 2-year mortality and technique survival in PD patients independent of age, diabetes, hypoalbuminemia, and the occurrence of

  4. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  5. Mortality predicted accuracy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with hepatic resection using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Herng-Chia; Ho, Te-Wei; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Wen-Hsien

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation. PMID:23737707

  6. Exercise Ventilatory Inefficiency Adds to Lung Function in Predicting Mortality in COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neder, J Alberto; Alharbi, Abdullah; Berton, Danilo C; Alencar, Maria Clara N; Arbex, Flavio F; Hirai, Daniel M; Webb, Katherine A; O'Donnell, Denis E

    2016-08-01

    Severity of resting functional impairment only partially predicts the increased risk of death in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Increased ventilation during exercise is associated with markers of disease progression and poor prognosis, including emphysema extension and pulmonary vascular impairment. Whether excess exercise ventilation would add to resting lung function in predicting mortality in COPD, however, is currently unknown. After an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test, 288 patients (forced expiratory volume in one second ranging from 18% to 148% predicted) were followed for a median (interquartile range) of 57 (47) months. Increases in the lowest (nadir) ventilation to CO2 output (VCO2) ratio determined excess exercise ventilation. Seventy-seven patients (26.7%) died during follow-up: 30/77 (38.9%) deaths were due to respiratory causes. Deceased patients were older, leaner, had a greater co-morbidity burden (Charlson Index) and reported more daily life dyspnea. Moreover, they had poorer lung function and exercise tolerance (p 34 was associated with IC/TLC ≤ 0.34 or IC/TLC ≤ 0.31 for all-cause and respiratory mortality, respectively (p COPD severity. Physiological abnormalities beyond traditional airway dysfunction and lung mechanics are relevant in determining the course of the disease. PMID:27077955

  7. Fecal calprotectin in systemic sclerosis and review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marie, I; Leroi, A-M; Menard, J-F; Levesque, H; Quillard, M; Ducrotte, P

    2015-06-01

    Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a simple, non-invasive and reproducible test, which has been described to be highly elevated in patients with active inflammatory bowel diseases. Recently, few authors have reported increased levels of FC in SSc patients, although the relationship between FC levels and the degree of gastrointestinal involvement has not yet been determined in patients with SSc. Thus, this prospective study aimed to: 1) determine the prevalence of increased fecal calprotectin (FC) levels in unselected patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); 2) make prediction about which SSc patients exhibit increased levels of FC; and 3) evaluate the correlation between increased levels of FC and digestive symptoms, and gastrointestinal involvement, including the presence of small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) using glucose H2/CH4 breath test. 125 consecutive patients with SSc underwent FC levels and glucose H2/CH4 breath test. All of the patients with SSc also completed a questionnaire on digestive symptoms, and a global symptom score (GSS) was calculated. 93 (74.4%) patients had abnormal levels of FC (>50 μg/g); 68 patients (54.4%) exhibited highly elevated levels of FC (>200 μg/g). A marked correlation was found between abnormal FC levels and GSS score of digestive symptoms, esophageal involvement and delayed gastric emptying. Moreover, we found a strong association between abnormal levels of FC and the presence of SIBO on glucose H2/CH4 breath test, with the higher correlation between the presence of SIBO and the level of FC ≥275 μg/g with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 ± 0.001 (CI: 0.93-0.99; p<10(-6)); the sensitivity of FC level ≥275 μg/g for predicting SIBO was as high as 0.93, while the specificity was 0.95. Finally, eradication of SIBO was obtained in 52.4% of the SSc patients with a significant improvement of intestinal symptoms. Finally, after 3 months of rotating courses of alternative antibiotic therapy

  8. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Wu

    Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

  9. Circulating soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor predicts cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eugen-Olsen, J; Andersen, O; Linneberg, A; Ladelund, S; Hansen T, W; Langkilde, A; Petersen, Janne; Pielak, T; Møller, N. L.; Jeppesen, J; Lyngbæk, S; Fenger, M; Olsen M, H; Borch-Johnsen, K; Jørgensen, Torben; Haugaard S, B; Hildebrandt, P. R.

    2010-01-01

    Low-grade inflammation is thought to contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), cancer and mortality. Biomarkers of inflammation may aid in risk prediction and enable early intervention and prevention of disease.......Low-grade inflammation is thought to contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), cancer and mortality. Biomarkers of inflammation may aid in risk prediction and enable early intervention and prevention of disease....

  10. Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

  11. The predictive value of fatigue for nonfatal ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekmann, Anette; Osler, Merete; Avlund, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether fatigue predicts nonfatal ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality in middle-aged men. Methods The study population consisted of 5216 middle-aged men born in the Copenhagen metropolitan area in 1953. At baseline, men free of angina pectoris and previous...... IHD were asked if they felt fatigued. Information on IHD diagnosis and all-cause mortality was register based. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to test the association at 4-year follow-up. Results Fatigue was associated with hospitalization for nonfatal IHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95......% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09-3.61) and all-cause mortality (HR = 3.99, 95% CI = 2.27-7.02). These associations became nonsignificant in multivariable-adjusted models (HR = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.82-3.01 and HR = 1.90, 95% CI = 0.95-3.80). Imputation of missing data did not modify conclusions. Fatigue was a...

  12. Can fecal calprotectin better stratify Crohn’s disease activity index?

    OpenAIRE

    Scaioli, Eleonora; Cardamone, Carla; Scagliarini, Michele; Zagari, Rocco Maurizio; Bazzoli, Franco; Belluzzi, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Background Crohn’s disease (CD) activity index (CDAI) is still widely used for monitoring clinical activity in CD patients, but is of little value as indicator of persistent inflammation in symptomless patients. Fecal calprotectin levels ≥150 µg/g are strongly indicative of endoscopically and/or histologically active disease. Our aim was to study, in a large cohort of CD patients, the relationship between CDAI and fecal calprotectin levels. Methods CDAI and fecal calprotectin levels were eval...

  13. Fecal calprotectin is associated with disease activity in patients with ankylosing spondylitis

    OpenAIRE

    Arzu Duran; Senol Kobak; Nazime Sen; Seniha Aktakka; Tennur Atabay; Mehmet Orman

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin is one of the major antimicrobial S100 leucocyte proteins. Serum calprotectin levels are associated with certain inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and inflammatory bowel disease. The aim of this study was to investigate serum and fecal calprotectin levels in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and show their potential relations to the clinical findings of the disease. Fifty-one patients fulfilling the New York criteria of AS and...

  14. Fecal calprotectin as a biomarker of inflammatory lesions of the small bowel seen by videocapsule endoscopy

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Egea-Valenzuela; Fernando Alberca-de-las-Parras; Fernando Carballo-Álvarez

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The levels of calprotectin in the stools are proportional to neutrophil activity in the enteric lumen, so fecal calprotectin is a useful intestinal inflammatory biomarker. It is an extended tool as predictor of colonic pathology but there is scare evidence about its utility in the small bowel. Objective: To test the yield of fecal calprotectin to detect lesions in the small bowel. Material and methods: We have retrospectively included 71 patients sent for small bowel capsule end...

  15. Low platelet activity predicts 30 days mortality in patients undergoing heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuliczkowski, Wiktor; Sliwka, Joanna; Kaczmarski, Jacek; Zysko, Dorota; Zembala, Michal; Steter, Dawid; Zembala, Marian; Gierlotka, Marek; Kim, Moo Hyun; Serebruany, Victor

    2016-03-01

    Despite advanced techniques and improved clinical outcomes, patient survival following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is still a major concern. Therefore, predicting future CABG mortality represents an unmet medical need and should be carefully explored. The objective of this study is to assess whether pre-CABG platelet activity corresponds with 30 days mortality post-CABG. Retrospective analyses of platelet biomarkers and death at 30 days in 478 heart surgery patients withdrawn from aspirin or/and clopidogrel. Platelet activity was assessed prior to CABG for aspirin (ASPI-test) with arachidonic acid and clopidogrel (ADP-test) utilizing Multiplate impedance aggregometer. Most patients (n = 198) underwent conventional CABG, off-pump (n = 162), minimally invasive (n = 30), artificial valve implantation (n = 48) or valves in combination with CABG (n = 40). There were 22 deaths at 30 days, including 10 in-hospital fatalities. With the cut-off value set below 407 area under curve (AUC) for the ASPI-test, the 30-day mortality was 5.90% for the lower cohort and 2.66% for patients with significantly higher platelet reactivity (P = 0.038). For the ADP-test with a cut-off at 400AUC, the 30-day mortality was 9.68% for the lower cohort and 3.66% for patients with higher platelet reactivity, representing a borderline significant difference (P = 0.046). Aside from the platelet indices, patients who received red blood cell (RBC) concentrate had a highly significant (P heart surgery, suggesting the danger of diminished platelet activity prior to CABG in such high-risk patients. These preliminary evidence supports early discontinuation of antiplatelet therapy for elective CABG and requires adequately powered randomized trials to test the hypothesis and potentially improve survival. PMID:26366827

  16. Inflixmab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease rapidly decreases fecal calprotectin levels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anssi H(a)m(a)l(a)inen; Taina Sipponen; Kaija-Leena Kolho

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To study the response to infliximab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), as reflected in fecal calprotectin levels.METHODS: Thirty-six pediatric patients with IBD [23 Crohn’s disease (CD), 13 ulcerative colitis (UC); median age 14 years] were treated with infliximab. Fecal calprotectin was measured at baseline, and 2 and 6 wk after therapy, and compared to blood inflammatory markers. Maintenance medication was unaltered until the third infusion but glucocorticoids were tapered off if the patient was doing well.RESULTS: At introduction of infliximab, median fecal calprotectin level was 1150 μg/g (range 54-6032 μg/g). By week 2, the fecal calprotectin level had declined to a median 261 μg/g (P < 0.001). In 37% of the patients, fecal calprotectin was normal (< 100 μg/g) at 2 wk. By week 6, there was no additional improvement in the fecal calprotectin level (median 345 μg/g). In 22% of the patients, fecal calprotectin levels increased by week 6 to pretreatment levels or above, suggesting no response (or a loss of early response). Thus, in CD, the proportion of non-responsive patients by week 6 seemed lower, because only 9% showed no improvement in their fecal calprotectin level when compared to the respective figure of 46% of the UC patients (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION: When treated with infliximab, fecal calprotectin levels reflecting intestinal inflammation normalized rapidly in one third of pediatric patients suggesting complete mucosal healing.

  17. Infliximab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease rapidly decreases fecal calprotectin levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hämäläinen, Anssi; Sipponen, Taina; Kolho, Kaija-Leena

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To study the response to infliximab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), as reflected in fecal calprotectin levels. METHODS: Thirty-six pediatric patients with IBD [23 Crohn’s disease (CD), 13 ulcerative colitis (UC); median age 14 years] were treated with infliximab. Fecal calprotectin was measured at baseline, and 2 and 6 wk after therapy, and compared to blood inflammatory markers. Maintenance medication was unaltered until the third infusion but glucocorticoids were tapered off if the patient was doing well. RESULTS: At introduction of infliximab, median fecal calprotectin level was 1150 μg/g (range 54-6032 μg/g). By week 2, the fecal calprotectin level had declined to a median 261 μg/g (P < 0.001). In 37% of the patients, fecal calprotectin was normal (< 100 μg/g) at 2 wk. By week 6, there was no additional improvement in the fecal calprotectin level (median 345 μg/g). In 22% of the patients, fecal calprotectin levels increased by week 6 to pretreatment levels or above, suggesting no response (or a loss of early response). Thus, in CD, the proportion of non-responsive patients by week 6 seemed lower, because only 9% showed no improvement in their fecal calprotectin level when compared to the respective figure of 46% of the UC patients (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: When treated with infliximab, fecal calprotectin levels reflecting intestinal inflammation normalized rapidly in one third of pediatric patients suggesting complete mucosal healing. PMID:22215940

  18. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  19. Calprotectin and lactoferrin faecal levels in patients with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Swale

    Full Text Available Measurement of both calprotectin and lactoferrin in faeces has successfully been used to discriminate between functional and inflammatory bowel conditions, but evidence is limited for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI. We prospectively recruited a cohort of 164 CDI cases and 52 controls with antibiotic-associated diarrhoea (AAD. Information on disease severity, duration of symptoms, 30-day mortality and 90-day recurrence as markers of complicated CDI were recorded. Specimens were subject to microbiological culture and PCR-ribotyping. Levels of faecal calprotectin (FC and lactoferrin (FL were measured by ELISA. Statistical analysis was conducted using percentile categorisation. ROC curve analysis was employed to determine optimal cut-off values. Both markers were highly correlated with each other (r2 = 0.74 and elevated in cases compared to controls (p0.85, although we observed a large amount of variability across both groups. The optimal case-control cut-off point was 148 mg/kg for FC and 8.1 ng/µl for FL. Median values for FL in CDI cases were significantly greater in patients suffering from severe disease compared to non-severe disease (104.6 vs. 40.1 ng/µl, p = 0.02, but were not significant for FC (969.3 vs. 512.7 mg/kg, p = 0.09. Neither marker was associated with 90-day recurrence, prolonged CDI symptoms, positive culture results and colonisation by ribotype 027. Both FC and FL distinguished between CDI cases and AAD controls. Although FL was associated with disease severity in CDI patients, this showed high inter-individual variability and was an isolated finding. Thus, FC and FL are unlikely to be useful as biomarkers of complicated CDI disease.

  20. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  1. Fecal calprotectin is associated with disease activity in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran, Arzu; Kobak, Senol; Sen, Nazime; Aktakka, Seniha; Atabay, Tennur; Orman, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin is one of the major antimicrobial S100 leucocyte proteins. Serum calprotectin levels are associated with certain inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and inflammatory bowel disease. The aim of this study was to investigate serum and fecal calprotectin levels in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and show their potential relations to the clinical findings of the disease. Fifty-one patients fulfilling the New York criteria of AS and 43 healthy age- and gender-matched volunteers were included in the study. Physical and locomotor system examinations were performed and history data were obtained for all patients. Disease activity parameters were assessed together with anthropometric parameters. Routine laboratory examinations and genetic testing (HLA-B27) were performed. Serum calprotectin levels and fecal calprotectin levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The mean age of the patients was 41.5 years, the mean duration of the disease was 8.6 years, and the delay in diagnosis was 4.2 years. Serum calprotectin levels were similar in both AS patients and in the control group (p=0.233). Serum calprotectin level was correlated with Bath AS disease activity index (BASDAI) and Bath AS functional index (BASFI) (p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively). A higher level of fecal calprotectin was detected in AS patients when compared with the control group. A statistically significant correlation between fecal calprotectin level and BASDAI, BASFI, C-reactive protein and Erythrocyte sedimentation rate were detected (p=0.002, p=0.005, p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively). The results indicated that fecal calprotectin levels were associated with AS disease findings and activity parameters. Calprotectin is a vital disease activity biomarker for AS and may have an important role in the pathogenesis of the disease. Multi-centered prospective studies are needed in order to provide further insight. PMID:26773186

  2. Fecal calprotectin is associated with disease activity in patients with ankylosing spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arzu Duran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Calprotectin is one of the major antimicrobial S100 leucocyte proteins. Serum calprotectin levels are associated with certain inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and inflammatory bowel disease. The aim of this study was to investigate serum and fecal calprotectin levels in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS and show their potential relations to the clinical findings of the disease. Fifty-one patients fulfilling the New York criteria of AS and 43 healthy age- and gender-matched volunteers were included in the study. Physical and locomotor system examinations were performed and history data were obtained for all patients. Disease activity parameters were assessed together with anthropometric parameters. Routine laboratory examinations and genetic testing (HLA-B27 were performed. Serum calprotectin levels and fecal calprotectin levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The mean age of the patients was 41.5 years, the mean duration of the disease was 8.6 years, and the delay in diagnosis was 4.2 years. Serum calprotectin levels were similar in both AS patients and in the control group (p=0.233. Serum calprotectin level was correlated with Bath AS disease activity index (BASDAI and Bath AS functional index (BASFI (p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively. A higher level of fecal calprotectin was detected in AS patients when compared with the control group. A statistically significant correlation between fecal calprotectin level and BASDAI, BASFI, C-reactive protein and Erythrocyte sedimentation rate were detected (p=0.002, p=0.005, p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively. The results indicated that fecal calprotectin levels were associated with AS disease findings and activity parameters. Calprotectin is a vital disease activity biomarker for AS and may have an important role in the pathogenesis of the disease. Multi-centered prospective studies are needed in order to provide further insight.

  3. Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: high-resolution CT scores predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujimoto, Kiminori [Kurume University School of Medicine, and Center for Diagnostic Imaging, Kurume University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Kurume, Fukuoka (Japan); Taniguchi, Hiroyuki; Kondoh, Yasuhiro; Kataoka, Kensuke [Tosei General Hospital, Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergy, Seto, Aichi (Japan); Johkoh, Takeshi [Kinki Central Hospital of Mutual Aid Association of Public School Teachers, Department of Radiology, Itami (Japan); Ichikado, Kazuya [Saiseikai Kumamoto Hospital, Division of Respiratory Medicine, Kumamoto (Japan); Sumikawa, Hiromitsu [Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Ogura, Takashi; Endo, Takahiro [Kanagawa Cardiovascular and Respiratory Center, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Kawaguchi, Atsushi [Kurume University School of Medicine, Biostatistics Center, Kurume (Japan); Mueller, Nestor L. [University of British Columbia and Vancouver General Hospital, Department of Radiology, Vancouver, B.C. (Canada)

    2012-01-15

    To determine high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings helpful in predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AEx-IPF). Sixty patients with diagnosis of AEx-IPF were reviewed retrospectively. Two groups (two observers each) independently evaluated pattern, distribution, and extent of HRCT findings at presentation and calculated an HRCT score at AEx based on normal attenuation areas and extent of abnormalities, such as areas of ground-glass attenuation and/or consolidation with or without traction bronchiectasis or bronchiolectasis and areas of honeycombing. The correlation between the clinical data including the HRCT score and mortality (cause-specific survival) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Serum KL-6 level, PaCO{sub 2}, and the HRCT score were statistically significant predictors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the HRCT score was an independently significant predictor of outcome (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19, P = 0.0002). The area under receiver operating characteristics curve for the HRCT score was statistically significant in the classification of survivors or nonsurvivors (0.944; P < 0.0001). Survival in patients with HRCT score {>=}245 was worse than those with lower score (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). The HRCT score at AEx is independently related to prognosis in patients with AEx-IPF. (orig.)

  4. Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: high-resolution CT scores predict mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To determine high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings helpful in predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AEx-IPF). Sixty patients with diagnosis of AEx-IPF were reviewed retrospectively. Two groups (two observers each) independently evaluated pattern, distribution, and extent of HRCT findings at presentation and calculated an HRCT score at AEx based on normal attenuation areas and extent of abnormalities, such as areas of ground-glass attenuation and/or consolidation with or without traction bronchiectasis or bronchiolectasis and areas of honeycombing. The correlation between the clinical data including the HRCT score and mortality (cause-specific survival) was evaluated using the univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. Serum KL-6 level, PaCO2, and the HRCT score were statistically significant predictors on univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that the HRCT score was an independently significant predictor of outcome (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19, P = 0.0002). The area under receiver operating characteristics curve for the HRCT score was statistically significant in the classification of survivors or nonsurvivors (0.944; P < 0.0001). Survival in patients with HRCT score ≥245 was worse than those with lower score (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). The HRCT score at AEx is independently related to prognosis in patients with AEx-IPF. (orig.)

  5. Increased non-Gaussianity of heart rate variability predicts cardiac mortality after an acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JunichiroHayano

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Non-Gaussianity index (λ is a new index of heart rate variability (HRV that characterizes increased probability of the large heart rate deviations from its trend. A previous study has reported that increased λ is an independent mortality predictor among patients with chronic heart failure. The present study examined predictive value of λ in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Among 670 post-AMI patients, we performed 24-hr Holter monitoring to assess λ and other HRV predictors, including standard deviation of normal-to-normal interval, very-low frequency power, scaling exponent α1 of detrended fluctuation analysis, deceleration capacity, and heart rate turbulence (HRT. At baseline, λ was not correlated substantially with other HRV indices (|r| <0.4 with either indices and was decreased in patients taking β-blockers (P = 0.04. During a median follow up period of 25 months, 45 (6.7% patients died (32 cardiac and 13 non-cardiac and 39 recurrent nonfatal AMI occurred among survivors. While all of these HRV indices but λ were significant predictors of both cardiac and non-cardiac deaths, increased λ predicted exclusively cardiac death (RR [95% CI], 1.6 [1.3-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P <0.0001. The predictive power of increased λ was significant even after adjustments for clinical risk factors, such as age, diabetes, left ventricular function, renal function, prior AMI, heart failure, and stroke, Killip class, and treatment ([95% CI], 1.4 [1.1-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P = 0.01. The prognostic power of increased λ for cardiac death was also independent of all other HRV indices and the combination of increased λ and abnormal HRT provided the best predictive model for cardiac death. Neither λ nor other HRV indices was an independent predictor of AMI recurrence. Among post-AMI patients, increased λ is associated exclusively with increased cardiac mortality risk and its predictive power is independent of clinical risk factors and

  6. Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2007 and 2011 staging systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soriano, Joan B; Lamprecht, Bernd; Ramírez, Ana S; Martinez-Camblor, Pablo; Kaiser, Bernhard; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Almagro, Pere; Casanova, Ciro; Esteban, Cristobal; Soler-Cataluña, Juan J; de-Torres, Juan P; Miravitlles, Marc; Celli, Bartolome R; Marin, Jose M; Puhan, Milo A; Sobradillo, Patricia; Lange, Peter; Sternberg, Alice L; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Turner, Alice M; Han, MeiLan K; Langhammer, Arnulf; Leivseth, Linda; Bakke, Per; Johannessen, Ane; Roche, Nicolas; Sin, Don D

    2015-01-01

    accuracy of the staging documents for mortality. METHODS: We searched reports published from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2014. Using data from cohorts that agreed to participate and had a minimum amount of information needed for GOLD 2007 and 2011, we did a patient-based pooled analysis of existing data. With...... distribution to more severe categories. There were nearly three times more COPD patients in stage D than in former stage IV (p<0·05). The predictive capacity for survival up to 10 years was significant for both systems (p<0·01) but area under the curves were only 0·623 (GOLD 2007) and 0·634 (GOLD 2011), and...

  7. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  8. Baux’s and Abbreviated Burn Severity Score for the Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Acute Burn Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peeyush Dahal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available jdjdBackground & Objectives: Prediction of outcome for patients with major thermal injury is important to inform clinical decision making, alleviate individual suffering and improve hospital resource allocation. Early prediction of outcome (i.e., survival or mortality may help triage effectively, and to implement medical and surgical interventions efficiently as soon as possible. Burn mortality has decreased markedly with the improvement in burn management in the past 100 years, and multiple burn mortality prediction models have been developed over these times in response to that decline. But these services are still not enough to reduce the burn related injuries in low income country like Nepal. So we did a study to observe the effectiveness of two different but very popular models (Baux and ABSI in our context.Materials & Methods: This was a prospective observational study where 92 cases of severe burn injury was selected and the results were compared with Baux and ABSI scoring system.Results: Total admission was 140 and mortality was 33. Out of these admission 92 cases of severe burn injury was selected for the study. Most (85.8 % of were among the young group 16-40 years. It comprises 41.3 % in total. In total 63.7 % were female. Mortality with severe burn injury was 29.3%. No death had occurred below the Baux’s score 30 and there was more than 51% mortality above the score of 60. There was no mortality with ABSI scoring < 3 and mortality was high in ABSI scoring > 6.Conclusion: Baux and ABSI score systems are simple to calculate and ABSI is more accurate for prediction of acute burn injury.Journal of College of Medical Sciences-Nepal, Vol.11(4 2015: 24-27

  9. Anhedonia Predicts Major Adverse Cardiac Events and Mortality in Patients 1 Year After Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Karina W.; Burg, Matthew M.; Kronish, Ian M.; Shimbo, Daichi; Dettenborn, Lucia; Mehran, Roxana; Vorchheimer, David; Clemow, Lynn; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Lespérance, Francois; Rieckmann, Nina

    2010-01-01

    Context Depression is a consistent predictor of recurrent events and mortality in ACS patients, but it has 2 core diagnostic criteria with distinct biological correlates—depressed mood and anhedonia. Objective To determine if depressed mood and/or anhedonia (loss of pleasure or interest) predict 1-year medical outcomes for patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS). Design Observational cohort study of post-ACS patients hospitalized between May 2003 and June 2005. Within one week of admission, patients underwent a structured psychiatric interview to assess clinically impairing depressed mood, anhedonia, and major depressive episode (MDE); also assessed were the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, Charlson comorbidity index, left ventricular ejection fraction, antidepressant use, and depressive symptom severity. Setting Coronary care and cardiac care step-down units of 3 university hospitals in New York and Connecticut. Participants Consecutive sample of 453 ACS patients (aged 25–93 years; 42% women). Main Outcomes Measures All-cause mortality (ACM) and documented major adverse cardiac events (MACE; myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, or urgent revascularization) were actively surveyed for 1 year after admission. Results There were 67 events (16 deaths and 51 MACE; 14.8%). 108 (24%) and 77 (17%) patients with anhedonia and depressed mood, respectively. After controlling for sex, age, and medical covariates, anhedonia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.16–2.14; P<.01) and MDE (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–2.04; P=.02) were significant predictors of combined MACE/ACM, but depressed mood was not. Anhedonia continued to significantly predict outcomes controlling for MDE diagnosis and depressive symptom severity, each of which were no longer significant. Conclusions Anhedonia identifies risk for MACE/ACM beyond that of established medical prognostic indicators

  10. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  11. Can chronic gastritis cause an increase in fecal calprotectin concentrations?

    OpenAIRE

    Massimo Montalto, Antonella Gallo, Gianluca Ianiro, Luca Santoro, Ferruccio D’Onofrio, Riccardo Ricci, Giovanni Cammarota, Marcello Covino, Monica Vastola, Antonio Gasbarrini, Giovanni Gasbarrini

    2010-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate fecal calprotectin concentrations (FCCs) in subjects with chronic gastritis and the correlation between FCCs and gastritis activity score.METHODS: FCCs were measured in 61 patients with histological diagnosis of gastritis and in 74 healthy volunteers. Histological grading of gastritis was performed according to the updated Sydney gastritis classification. Patients were subdivided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of an active gastritis. Patients with chronic act...

  12. Can chronic gastritis cause an increase in fecal calprotectin concentrations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Massimo; Montalto; Antonella; Gallo; Gianluca; Ianiro; Luca; Santoro; Ferruccio; D; Onofrio; Riccardo; Ricci; Giovanni; Cammarota; Marcello; Covino; Monica; Vastola; Antonio; Gasbarrini; Giovanni; Gasbarrini

    2010-01-01

    AIM:To evaluate fecal calprotectin concentrations(FCCs) in subjects with chronic gastritis and the correlation between FCCs and gastritis activity score.METHODS:FCCs were measured in 61 patients with histological diagnosis of gastritis and in 74 healthy volunteers.Histological grading of gastritis was performed according to the updated Sydney gastritis classification.Patients were subdivided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of an active gastritis.Patients with chronic active gastritis were di...

  13. The Role of Fecal Calprotectin in Investigating Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Fatih Ünal; Evren Semizel; Muhittin Serdar; Çiğdem Ömür Ecevit; Yılmaz Karaca; Emine Mert Yılmaz; Hasan Kocaefe; Hasan Erhun Kasırga

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Fecal calprotectin (FCP) can be found in high concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease due to the increase in leucocyte turnover in intestinal wall or increase of migration of neutrophils into the lumen. In this study, we aimed to determine the FCP values of the ulcerative colitis (UC) patients at the time of diagnosis and to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of this non-invasive method in the diagnosis of the disease, routinely.Materials and Methods: A total o...

  14. Fækal calprotectin er en klinisk anvendelig markør for intestinal inflammation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theede, Klaus; Kiszka-Kanowitz, Marianne; Nordgaard-Lassen, Inge;

    2014-01-01

    Faecal calprotectin is a biomarker for inflammation in the intestinal mucosa. Faecal calprotectin has the ability to detect inflammatory causes of gastrointestinal symptoms and to distinguish these from irritable bowel syndrome. The test is very sensitive but not specific to any particular...

  15. A new rapid home test for faecal calprotectin in ulcerative colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elkjaer, M; Burisch, Johan; Hansen, V Voxen;

    2010-01-01

    Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a time-consuming method for the measurement of faecal calprotectin. Two new quantitative rapid tests have been developed.......Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a time-consuming method for the measurement of faecal calprotectin. Two new quantitative rapid tests have been developed....

  16. Plasma calprotectin levels reflect disease severity in patients with chronic heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise Jn; Kistorp, Caroline Michaela Nervil; Bjerre, Mette;

    2011-01-01

    Background: Low-grade inflammation has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential usefulness of the inflammatory protein calprotectin as a biomarker in CHF. Methods: Plasma calprotectin was...

  17. Rapid test for fecal calprotectin levels in children with crohn disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolho, K L; Turner, D; Veereman-Wauters, G;

    2012-01-01

    Assessment of fecal calprotectin, a surrogate marker of mucosal inflammation, is a promising means to monitor therapeutic response in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease, especially if the result is readily available. We tested the performance of a novel calprotectin rapid test, Quantum Blue...

  18. Avoid Endoscopy in Children with Suspected Inflammatory Bowel Disease Who Have Normal Calprotectin Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heida, Anke; Holtman, Gea A; Lisman-van Leeuwen, Yvonne; Berger, Marjolein Y; van Rheenen, Patrick F

    2016-01-01

    In children with suspected inflammatory bowel disease, adding calprotectin stool testing to the screening strategy has been recommended to distinguish organic from non-organic disease. In this cohort study with historical controls we could not confirm that screening with stool calprotectin improves

  19. Predicting cumulative risk of bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) using feedlot arrival data and daily morbidity and mortality counts

    OpenAIRE

    Babcock, Abram H.; White, Brad J.; Renter, David G.; Dubnicka, Suzanne R.; Scott, H. Morgan

    2013-01-01

    Although bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is common in post-weaning cattle, BRDC prediction models are seldom analyzed. The objectives of this study were to assess the ability to predict cumulative cohort-level BRDC morbidity using on-arrival risk factors and to evaluate whether or not adding BRDC risk classification and daily BRDC morbidity and mortality data to the models enhanced their predictive ability. Retrospective cohort-level and individual animal health data were used to cr...

  20. Heart rate multiscale entropy at three hours predicts hospital mortality in 3,154 trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Patrick R; Anderson, Steven M; Jenkins, Judith M; Williams, Anna E; Morris, John A

    2008-07-01

    Complexity is a measure of variation and randomness potentially indicating improvement or deterioration in critically ill patients. Previously, we have shown integer heart rate (HR) multiscale entropy (MSE), an indicator of complexity, predicts death based on long duration (12 h) and dense (>or=0.4 Hz) windows of HR data. However, such restrictions reduce the use of MSE in the clinical setting. We hypothesized MSE predicts death using HR data of shorter duration and lower density. During the initial 24 h of intensive care unit stay, 3,154 patients had at least 3 h of continuous integer HR sampled. The first continuous window of 3, 6, 9, and 12 h was selected for each patient regardless of density, and an open-source MSE algorithm was applied (M. Costa, www.physionet.org; m = 2; r = 0.15). Risk of death based on MSE, alone and with covariates (age, sex, injury severity score), was assessed using randomly selected logistic regression in half of the cases. Area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) was computed in the other half in subgroups having various durations and densities of HR data. At days 2.3 (median) and 4.9 (mean), 441 patients (14%) died. Multiscale entropy stratified patients by mortality and was an independent predictor of death using 3 h or more of data. Multiscale entropy alone (AUC = 0.66 - 0.71) predicted death comparably to covariates alone (AUC = 0.72). We conclude: (1) Heart rate MSE within hours of admission predicts death occurring days later. (2) Multiscale entropy is robust to variation in bedside data duration and density occurring in a working intensive care unit. (3) Complexity may be a new clinical biomarker of outcome. PMID:18323736

  1. The predictive value of gastric reactance for postoperative morbidity and mortality in cardiac surgery patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    No useful method to directly monitor the level of end organ tissue injury is currently available clinically. Gastric reactance has been proposed to measure changes in a tissue structure caused by ischemia. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gastric reactance is a reliable, clinically relevant predictor of complications and a potentially useful tool to assess hypoperfusion in cardiovascular surgery patients. The value of gastric reactance measurements, standard hemodynamic and regional perfusion variables, and scores to predict postoperative complications were compared in 55 higher risk cardiovascular surgery patients with cardiopulmonary bypass. Low frequency gastric reactance, XL, had a significant predictive value of postoperative persistent shock requiring more than 48 h of vasopressors and associated complications, before, during and after surgery (p L > 26) before surgery had a significantly higher incidence of complications, higher mortality and more days in the ICU than patients with a low reactance (XL L was found to be a reliable and clinically relevant measurement. These results justify further clinical research to explore how this information may be used to improve patient management

  2. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  3. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  4. Spatial/Frontal QRS-T Angle Predicts All-Cause Mortality and Cardiac Mortality: A Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinlin Zhang

    Full Text Available A number of studies have assessed the predictive effect of QRS-T angles in various populations since the last decade. The objective of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the prognostic value of spatial/frontal QRS-T angle on all-cause death and cardiac death.PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from their inception until June 5, 2014. Studies reporting the predictive effect of spatial/frontal QRS-T angle on all-cause/cardiac death in all populations were included. Relative risk (RR was used as a measure of effect.Twenty-two studies enrolling 164,171 individuals were included. In the combined analysis in all populations, a wide spatial QRS-T angle was associated with an increase in all-cause death (maximum-adjusted RR: 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32 to 1.48 and cardiac death (maximum-adjusted RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.54 to 1.90, a wide frontal QRS-T angle also predicted a higher rate of all-cause death (maximum-adjusted RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.54 to 1.90. Largely similar results were found using different methods of categorizing for QRS-T angles, and similar in subgroup populations such as general population, populations with suspected coronary heart disease or heart failure. Other stratified analyses and meta-analyses using unadjusted data also generated consistent findings.Spatial QRS-T angle held promising prognostic value on all-cause death and cardiac death. Frontal QRS-T angle was also a promising predictor of all-cause death. Given the good predictive value of QRS-T angle, a combined stratification strategy in which QRS-T angle is of vital importance might be expected.

  5. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-07-01

    Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making.This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98-11.23; P failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36-7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07-7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score 3), and 88% (Score 4), respectively.Duration of MV, severity of organ dysfunction, and immunocompromised status were important preinterventional prognostic predictors for adult VV-ECMO. The 3 prognostic predictors could also constitute a practical prognosticating tool in patients requiring this advanced respiratory support. Physicians in ECMO institutions are encouraged to perform external validations

  6. Comparison of Charlson comorbidity index with SAPS and APACHE scores for prediction of mortality following intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christensen S

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Steffen Christensen1, Martin Berg Johansen1, Christian Fynbo Christiansen1, Reinhold Jensen2, Stanley Lemeshow1,31Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Department of Intensive Care, Skejby Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USABackground: Physiology-based severity of illness scores are often used for risk adjustment in observational studies of intensive care unit (ICU outcome. However, the complexity and time constraints of these scoring systems may limit their use in administrative databases. Comorbidity is a main determinant of ICU outcome, and comorbidity scores can be computed based on data from most administrative databases. However, limited data exist on the performance of comorbidity scores in predicting mortality of ICU patients.Objectives: To examine the performance of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI alone and in combination with other readily available administrative data and three physiology-based scores (acute physiology and chronic health evaluations [APACHE] II, simplified acute physiology score [SAPS] II, and SAPS III in predicting short- and long-term mortality following intensive care.Methods: For all adult patients (n = 469 admitted to a tertiary university–affiliated ICU in 2007, we computed APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III scores based on data from medical records. Data on CCI score age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy, primary diagnosis, and complete follow-up for 1-year mortality was obtained from administrative databases. We computed goodness-of-fit statistics and c-statistics (area under ROC [receiver operating characteristic] curve as measures of model calibration (ability to predict mortality proportions over classes of risk and discrimination (ability to discriminate among the patients

  7. Serum Gamma-Glutamyltransferase Levels Predict Mortality in Patients With Peritoneal Dialysis

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Woo-Yeong; Kim, Su-Hyun; Kim, Young Ok; Jin, Dong Chan; Song, Ho Chul; Choi, Euy Jin; Kim, Yong Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Kang, Shin Wook; Kim, Nam Ho; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Yong Kyun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level has been considered marker of oxidative stress as well as liver function. Serum GGT level has been reported to be associated with the mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, it is not well established whether serum GGT level is associated with all-cause mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. The aim of this study was to determine the association between serum GGT levels and all-cause mortality in PD patients. PD patients were ...

  8. C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio Predicts 90-Day Mortality of Septic Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Ranzani, Otavio T.; Zampieri, Fernando Godinho; Forte, Daniel Neves; Azevedo, Luciano Cesar Pontes; Park, Marcelo

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Residual inflammation at ICU discharge may have impact upon long-term mortality. However, the significance of ongoing inflammation on mortality after ICU discharge is poorly described. C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin are measured frequently in the ICU and exhibit opposing patterns during inflammation. Since infection is a potent trigger of inflammation, we hypothesized that CRP levels at discharge would correlate with long-term mortality in septic patients and that the CRP/a...

  9. ECG low QRS voltage and wide QRS complex predictive of centenarian 360-day mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szewieczek, Jan; Gąsior, Zbigniew; Duława, Jan; Francuz, Tomasz; Legierska, Katarzyna; Batko-Szwaczka, Agnieszka; Hornik, Beata; Janusz-Jenczeń, Magdalena; Włodarczyk, Iwona; Wilczyński, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    We examined the electrocardiographic (ECG) findings of centenarians and associated them with >360-day survival. Physical and functional assessment, resting electrocardiogram and laboratory tests were performed on 86 study participants 101.9 ± 1.2 years old (mean ± SD) (70 women, 16 men) and followed for at least 360 days. Centenarian ECGs were assessed for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) according to the Romhilt-Estes score, Sokolow-Lyon criteria and Cornell voltage criteria which were positive for 12.8, 6.98, and 10.5 % of participants, respectively. Fifty-two study participants (60 %) survived ≥360 days. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a negative relationship between 360-day survival and the following: R II sodium, calcium, phosphorous, TIMP-1, and eGFR. QRS voltage correlated negatively with BMI, WHR, serum leptin, IL-6, TNF-α, and PAI-1 levels. QRS complex duration correlated positively with CRP; QTc correlated positively with TNF-α. Results suggest that Romhilt-Estes LVH criteria scores ≥5 points, low ECG QRS voltages (Sokolow-Lyon voltage <1.45 mV), and QRS complexes ≥90 ms are predictive of centenarian 360-day mortality. PMID:27039197

  10. Fecal Calprotectin Dosage Value as A Diagnostic and Postoperative Marker in Diabetic Patients with Colorectal Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borza Ioan Lucian

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: We evaluated fecal calprotectin values in patients with colorectal neoplasms undergoing surgery, comparatively in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Material and Methods: We studied 40 patients operated for colorectal neoplasm, divided into two groups: one group of 20 patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and another group of 20 patients without diabetes. Results: Patients had a high percentage of preoperative calprotectin test positivity (90%, 36 patients. A total of 19 patients in group 1 and 17 patients in group 2 had a positive calprotectin test. Postoperatively at 3 months, fecal calprotectin values remained elevated in 7 patients from group 1 and 4 patients from group 2. At 6 months postoperatively, fecal calprotectin values remained elevated in 2 patients from group 1 and 1 patient from group 2. Conclusions: Calprotectin values in faeces from patients with colorectal cancer were significantly increased, with a trend towards post-operatory normalization, slower in patients with diabetes. Fecal calprotectin value as a screening marker was almost equal compared to the hemoccult test, and better compared to that of the carcinoembryonic antigen.

  11. Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-01-31

    WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

  12. Metabolic syndrome vs.its components for prediction of cardiovascular mortality: A cohort study in Chinese elderly adults

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong-Ling Sun; Jian-Hua Wang; Bin Jiang; Liang-Shou Li; Lan-Sun Li; Lei Wu; Hai-Yun Wu; Yao He

    2012-01-01

    Objective The predictive value of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) for mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Chinese population is unclear. The aim of this present study was to compare MetS with its individual components as predictors of mortality in Chinese elderly adults. Methods A cohort of 1,535 subjects (994 men and 541 women) aged 50 years or older was selected from employees of a machinery factory in 1994 and followed until 2009. Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) predicted by MetS according to the harmonized definition and by its individual components. Results The baseline prevalence of MetS was 28.0% in men and 48.4% in women. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 414 deaths occurred, of these, 153 participants died from CVD. Adjusted for age and gender, the HRs of mortality from all-cause and CVD in participants with MetS were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): components. On evaluating the MetS components individually, we found that, independent of MetS, only hypertension and impaired glucose predicted higher mortality. Conclusions The number of positive MetS components seems no more informative than classifying (dichotomous) MetS for CVD risks assessment in this Chinese cohort.

  13. Elevated fecal calprotectin in patients with Alzheimer's dementia indicates leaky gut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblhuber, Friedrich; Geisler, Simon; Steiner, Kostja; Fuchs, Dietmar; Schütz, Burkhard

    2015-09-01

    Fecal concentrations of calprotectin were examined in 22 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and compared with serum concentrations of aromatic amino acids. Calprotectin concentrations were mean ± SEM 140 ± 31.9 mg/kg, 16 patients (73%) presented with concentrations outside normal (>50 mg/kg). Concentrations correlated inversely with serum levels of tryptophan, tyrosine and phenylalanine (all p < 0.05). Increased concentrations of fecal calprotectin indicate a disturbed intestinal barrier function in AD patients which could be of relevance for the lowering of essential aromatic amino acids concentrations in the blood. PMID:25680441

  14. Comprehensive geriatric assessment can predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang-Il; Park, Kay-Hyun; Koo, Kyung-Hoi; Han, Ho-Seong; Kim, Cheol-Ho

    2013-01-01

    The proportion of elderly patients who undergo surgery has rapidly increased; however, clinical indicators predicting outcomes are limited. Our aim was to evaluate the significance of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. We studied 141 consecutive elderly patients (age: 78.0±6.5 years old, male: 41.1%) who were referred to our geriatric department for surgical risk evaluation. CGA was performed to evaluate physical health, functional status, psychological health, and social support. The primary composite outcome of this study was in-hospital death or post-discharge institutionalization. In-hospital adverse events, such as delirium, pressure ulcers, pneumonia, and urinary tract infections, were also evaluated. The associations between CGA and in-hospital adverse events, in-hospital death, and post-discharge institutionalization were investigated. There were 32 adverse outcomes (6 in-hospital deaths and 26 post-discharge institutionalizations). Compared with the patients who were discharged to their homes, patients with adverse outcomes were characterized by poor nutritional status and prior strokes. However, there was no significant difference in surgical risk or anesthesia type. The CGA results showed that patients with adverse outcomes were associated with functional dependency and poor nutrition. The cumulative number of impairments in the CGA domain was significantly associated with adverse outcomes, in-hospital events, and prolonged hospital stays. In multiple logistic regression analysis, cumulative impairment in CGA was independently associated with surgical outcomes in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. Preoperative CGA can identify elderly patients at greater risk for mortality, post-discharge institutionalization, adverse in-hospital events, and prolonged length of hospital stay. PMID:23246499

  15. Predictive Value of a Profile of Routine Blood Measurements on Mortality in Older Persons in the General Population: The Leiden 85-Plus Study

    OpenAIRE

    van Houwelingen, Anne H.; den Elzen, Wendy P. J.; Mooijaart, Simon P.; Heijmans, Margot; Blom, Jeanet W; de Craen, Anton J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

    2013-01-01

    Background Various questionnaires and performance tests predict mortality in older people. However, most are heterogeneous, laborious and a validated consensus index is not available yet. Since most older people are regularly monitored by laboratory tests, we compared the predictive value of a profile of seven routine laboratory measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population with other predictors of mortality; gait speed and disability in instrumental activities of daily...

  16. Revision of MELD to include serum albumin improves prediction of mortality on the liver transplant waiting list.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P Myers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Allocation of donor livers for transplantation in most regions is based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD or MELD-sodium (MELDNa. Our objective was to assess revisions to MELD and MELDNa that include serum albumin for predicting waiting list mortality. METHODS: Adults registered for liver transplantation in the United States (2002-2007 were identified from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS database. Cox regression was used to determine the association between serum albumin and 3-month mortality, and to derive revised MELD and MELDNa scores incorporating albumin ('MELD-albumin' and '5-variable MELD [5vMELD]'. RESULTS: Among 40,393 patients, 9% died and 24% underwent transplantation within 3 months of listing. For serum albumin concentrations between 1.0 and 4.0 g/dL, a linear, inverse relationship was observed between albumin and 3-month mortality (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 g/dL reduction in albumin: 1.44; 95% CI 1.35-1.54. The c-statistics for 3-month mortality of MELD-albumin and MELD were 0.913 and 0.896, respectively (P<0.001; 5vMELD was superior to MELDNa (c-statistics 0.922 vs. 0.912, P<0.001. The potential benefit of 5vMELD was greatest in patients with low MELD (<15. Among low MELD patients who died, 27% would have gained ≥10 points with 5vMELD over MELD versus only 4-7% among low MELD survivors and high MELD (≥15 candidates (P<0.0005. CONCLUSION: Modification of MELD and MELDNa to include serum albumin is associated with improved prediction of waiting list mortality. If validated and shown to be associated with reduced mortality, adoption of 5vMELD as the basis for liver allograft allocation may improve outcomes on the liver transplant waiting list.

  17. Post-operative aspartate aminotransferase levels independently predict mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Kai Ming Wang

    2015-03-01

    Conclusion: Increase in AST levels within 48 hours of CABG was a strong independent predictor of 30 day mortality. Although AST increase is not specific to myocardial necrosis, it remains useful for prognosis in cardiac surgery.

  18. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  19. Mortality prediction in patients with severe septic shock: a pilot study using a target metabolomics approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Manuela; Cambiaghi, Alice; Brunelli, Laura; Giordano, Silvia; Caironi, Pietro; Guatteri, Luca; Raimondi, Ferdinando; Gattinoni, Luciano; Latini, Roberto; Masson, Serge; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Pastorelli, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    Septic shock remains a major problem in Intensive Care Unit, with high lethality and high-risk second lines treatments. In this preliminary retrospective investigation we examined plasma metabolome and clinical features in a subset of 20 patients with severe septic shock (SOFA score >8), enrolled in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis study (ALBIOS, NCT00707122). Our purpose was to evaluate the changes of circulating metabolites in relation to mortality as a pilot study to be extended in a larger cohort. Patients were analyzed according to their 28-days and 90-days mortality. Metabolites were measured using a targeted mass spectrometry-based quantitative metabolomic approach that included acylcarnitines, aminoacids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sugars. Data-mining techniques were applied to evaluate the association of metabolites with mortality. Low unsaturated long-chain phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines species were associated with long-term survival (90-days) together with circulating kynurenine. Moreover, a decrease of these glycerophospholipids was associated to the event at 28-days and 90-days in combination with clinical variables such as cardiovascular SOFA score (28-day mortality model) or renal replacement therapy (90-day mortality model). Early changes in the plasma levels of both lipid species and kynurenine associated with mortality have potential implications for early intervention and discovering new target therapy. PMID:26847922

  20. Application of fecal calprotectin and myeloperoxidase in evaluation of disease activity of ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柏明见

    2013-01-01

    Objective To explore the clinical value of fecal calprotectin and myeloperoxidase in evaluation of ulcerative colitis(UC) activity.Methods Specimens of serum and feces over the same period were collected from

  1. Comparison of three commercial fecal calprotectin ELISA test kits used in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirsepasi-Lauridsen, Hengameh Chloé; Bachmann Holmetoft, Ulla; Ingdam Halkjær, Sofie;

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fecal calprotectin is a noninvasive marker of intestinal inflammation used to distinguish between functional and organic bowel diseases and to evaluate disease activity among patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The goal of this study was to compare three different ELISA tests...... measuring calprotectin in their accuracy to detect IBD and to distinguish between IBD patients with active or inactive disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study includes in total 148 fecal samples, 96 from patients with a previously confirmed IBD diagnosis and 52 from healthy controls, aged from 25 to 86...... tests (EK-CAL, CALPRO and HK325) were performed on fecal specimens and results compared. RESULTS: The CALPRO calprotectin ELISA test was shown to have the best specificity of 96% compared to the HK325 and the EK-CAL calprotectin ELISA tests with 28% specificity and 74% specificity, respectively. A...

  2. Diagnostic Value of Fecal Calprotectin in Patient with Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Hamed; Barzin, Gilda; Yousefinia, Mahsa; Mohammadkhani, Ashraf; Ostovaneh, Mohammad Reza; Sharifi, Amir Houshang; Tayebi, Sirous; Malekzadeh, Reza; Ansari, Reza

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by recurrent episodes of inflammation limited to the mucosal layer of the colon. Calprotectin is a zinc and calcium binding protein derived from neutrophils and monocytes. It is easily detectable in tissue samples, body fluids, and stools, which makes it a potentially valuable marker of inflammation. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the value of fecal calprotectin (FC) as a marker of disease activity in patients with UC. METHODS Seventy three eligible subjects underwent ileocolonoscopy and multiple biopsies were obtained from different parts of the colon and terminal ileum. All patients underwent blood and stool sampling as well as an interview to assess the disease severity utilizing ulcerative colitis activity index (UCAI), subjectively. The diagnostic value of the FC in comparison with Mayo disease activity index as the gold standard technique, was then evaluated. RESULTS Mean FC level increased linearly according to Mayo disease activity index (r=0.44, p 21.4 ng/ml was able to discriminate between active and inactive phases of UC according to Mayo disease activity index>2 with 72.3% sensitivity and 73.1% specificity. The combination of FC > 21.4 ng/ml and UCAI score of 7 had a 46.8% sensitivity and 88% specificity to diagnose Mayo disease activity index >2. Furthermore, FC level 2. PMID:24829673

  3. BISAP SCORE: A SIMPLE TOOL TO ASSESS THE SEVERITY AND PREDICT THE MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN ACUTE PANCREATITIS

    OpenAIRE

    Hariprasad; Haridarshan; Puneetha; Rajagopalan

    2015-01-01

    NEED FOR STUDY The present study is to use a simple bedside tool as a scoring system to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis and to predict its risks for morbidity and mortality. The main criteria of this study is to highlight the ease of using this tool to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis as early as possible in order to reduce the complications, risks and to improve the outcome and overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS Our study is a single centre,...

  4. Development and evaluation of three mortality prediction indices for cold-stunned Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii)

    OpenAIRE

    Stacy, N. I.; Innis, C. J.; Hernandez, J. A.

    2013-01-01

    Kemp's ridley sea turtle is an endangered species found in the Gulf of Mexico and along the east coast of the USA. Cold-stunned Kemp's ridley turtles are often found stranded on beaches of Massachusetts and New York in November and December each year. When found alive, turtles are transported to rehabilitation centres for evaluation and treatment. Blood gas and chemistry analytes of major clinical relevance in sea turtles were selected to develop mortality prediction indices (MPI)s. Testing t...

  5. Use of Framingham risk score and new biomarkers to predict cardiovascular mortality in older people: population based observational cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    de Ruijter, Wouter; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Assendelft, Willem J J; Wendy P J den Elzen; Anton J M de Craen; le Cessie, Saskia; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To investigate the performance of classic risk factors, and of some new biomarkers, in predicting cardiovascular mortality in very old people from the general population with no history of cardiovascular disease. Design The Leiden 85-plus Study (1997-2004) is an observational prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. Setting General population of the city of Leiden, the Netherlands. Participants Population based sample of participants aged 85 years (215 women and 87 men) ...

  6. External validation of nomograms for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients treated with definitive surgery

    OpenAIRE

    Yao Zhu; Wei-Jie Gu; Ding-Wei Ye; Xu-Dong Yao; Shi-Lin Zhang; Bo Dai; Hai-Liang Zhang; Yi-Jun Shen

    2014-01-01

    Using a population-based cancer registry, Thuret et al. developed 3 nomograms for estimating cancer-specific mortality in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma. In the initial cohort, only 23.0% of the patients were treated with inguinal lymphadenectomy and had pN stage. To generalize the prediction models in clinical practice, we evaluated the performance of the 3 nomograms in a series of penile cancer patients who were treated with definitive surgery. Clinicopathologic information was obt...

  7. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J.; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M.; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C.; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C.; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Katzke, Verena A.; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J.; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Boer, Jolanda M. A.; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G. M.; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors. PMID:27409582

  8. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  9. Clinical value of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun-Ying Xiang; Qin Ouyang; Guo-Dong Li; Nan-Ping Xiao

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To investigate possibility and clinical application of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis (UC).METHODS: The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was used to measure the concentrations of calprotectin in feces obtained from 66 patients with UC and 20 controls. C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), acid glycoprotein (AGP) were also measured and were compared with calprotectin in determining disease activity of UC. The disease activity of UC was also determined by the Sutherland criteria.RESULTS: The fecal calprotectin concentration in the patients with active UC was significantly higher than that in the inactive UC and in the controls (402.16±48.0 μg/g vs 35.93±3.39 μg/g, 11.5±3.42 μg/g, P < 0.01). The fecal calprotectin concentration in the inactive UC group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < 0.05). A significant difference was also found in the patients with active UC of mild, moderate and severe degrees. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) was 0.975, 0.740, 0.692 and 0.737 for fecal calprotectin, CRP, ESR and AGP,respectively. There was a strong correlation between the fecal calprotectin concentration and the endoscopic gradings for UC (r = 0.866, P < 0.001).CONCLUSION: Calprotectin in the patient's feces can reflect the disease activity of UC and can be used as a rational fecal marker for intestinal inflammation in clinical practice. This kind of marker is relatively precise, simple and noninvasive when compared with other commonly-used markers such as CRP, ESR and AGR.

  10. Fecal calprotectin in children with special reference to inflammatory bowel disease

    OpenAIRE

    Fagerberg, Ulrika Lorentzon

    2007-01-01

    This thesis aims to study the clinical usefulness of fecal calprotectin as a noninvasive marker of colonic inflammation in children with suspected or confirmed chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Calprotectin, a calcium-binding protein predominantly expressed in neutrophils, is stable in feces for several days, and can be measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Gastrointestinal symptoms as abdominal pain, diarrhea, bloody stools, and weight loss are commo...

  11. Clinical value of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Jun-Ying; Ouyang, Qin; Li, Guo-Dong; Xiao, Nan-Ping

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To investigate possibility and clinical application of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the concentrations of calprotectin in feces obtained from 66 patients with UC and 20 controls. C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), acid glycoprotein (AGP) were also measured and were compared with calprotectin in determining disease activity of UC. The disease activity of UC was also determined by the Sutherland criteria. RESULTS: The fecal calprotectin concentration in the patients with active UC was significantly higher than that in the inactive UC and in the controls (402.16 ± 48.0 μg/g vs 35.93 ± 3.39 μg/g, 11.5 ± 3.42 μg/g, P < 0.01). The fecal calprotectin concentration in the inactive UC group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < 0.05). A significant difference was also found in the patients with active UC of mild, moderate and severe degrees. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) was 0.975, 0.740, 0.692 and 0.737 for fecal calprotectin, CRP, ESR and AGP, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the fecal calprotectin concentration and the endoscopic gradings for UC (r = 0.866, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Calprotectin in the patient’s feces can reflect the disease activity of UC and can be used as a rational fecal marker for intestinal inflammation in clinical practice. This kind of marker is relatively precise, simple and noninvasive when compared with other commonly-used markers such as CRP, ESR and AGP. PMID:18176961

  12. Fecal Calprotectin Dosage Value as A Diagnostic and Postoperative Marker in Diabetic Patients with Colorectal Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Borza Ioan Lucian; Babes Aurel

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims: We evaluated fecal calprotectin values in patients with colorectal neoplasms undergoing surgery, comparatively in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Material and Methods: We studied 40 patients operated for colorectal neoplasm, divided into two groups: one group of 20 patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and another group of 20 patients without diabetes. Results: Patients had a high percentage of preoperative calprotectin test positivity (90%, 36 patien...

  13. Fecal immunochemical test as a biomarker for inflammatory bowel diseases: can it rival fecal calprotectin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Jun; Hiraoka, Sakiko; Nakarai, Asuka; Takashima, Shiho; Inokuchi, Toshihiro; Ichinose, Masao

    2016-01-01

    Accurate evaluation of disease activity is essential for choosing an appropriate treatment and follow-up plan for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Endoscopy is required for accurately evaluating disease activity, but the procedures are sometimes invasive and burdensome to patients. Therefore, alternative non-invasive methods for evaluating or predicting disease activity including mucosal status are desirable. Fecal calprotectin (Fcal) is the most widely used fecal marker for IBD, and many articles have described the performance of the marker in predicting disease activity, mucosal healing (MH), treatment efficacy, and risk of relapse. Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) can quantify the concentration of hemoglobin in stool and was originally used for the screening of colorectal cancer. We recently reported that FIT is also a useful biomarker for IBD. A direct comparison between the use of Fcal and FIT showed that both methods predicted MH in ulcerative colitis equally well. However, in the case of Crohn's disease, FIT was less sensitive to lesions in the small intestine, compared to Fcal. FIT holds several advantages over Fcal in regards to user-friendliness, including a lower cost, easy and clean handling, and the ability to make rapid measurements by using an automated measurement system. However, there is insufficient data to support the application of FIT in IBD. Further studies into the use of FIT for evaluating the inflammatory status of IBD are warranted. PMID:26884729

  14. Comparison of severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock

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    Crowe Colleen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : New scoring systems, including the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS, the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS score, and the confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years and older (CURB-65 score, have been developed for emergency department (ED use in various patient populations. Increasing use of early goal directed therapy (EGDT for the emergent treatment of sepsis introduces a growing population of patients in which the accuracy of these scoring systems has not been widely examined. Objectives : To evaluate the ability of the REMS, MEDS score, and CURB-65 score to predict mortality in septic patients treated with modified EGDT. Materials and Methods : Secondary analysis of data from prospectively identified patients treated with modified EGDT in a large tertiary care suburban community hospital with over 85,000 ED visits annually and 700 inpatient beds, from May 2007 through May 2008. We included all patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, who were treated with our modified EGDT protocol. Our major outcome was in-hospital mortality. The performance of the scores was compared by area under the ROC curves (AUCs. Results : A total of 216 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were treated with modified EGDT during the study period. Overall mortality was 32.9%. Calculated AUCs were 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.67-0.81] for the MEDS score, 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69 for the REMS, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.51-0.67 for the CURB-65 score. Conclusion : We found that all three ED-based systems for scoring severity of illness had low to moderate predictive capability. The MEDS score demonstrated the largest AUC of the studied scoring systems for the outcome of mortality, although the CIs on point estimates of the AUC of the REMS and CURB-65 scores all overlap.

  15. Low preoperative platelet counts predict a high mortality after partial hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kazuhiro Kaneko; Yoshio Shirai; Toshifumi Wakai; Naoyuki Yokoyama; Kohei Akazawa; Katsuyoshi Hatakeyama

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To assess the validity of our selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures based on indocyanine green disappearance rate (KICG), and to unveil the factors affecting posthepatectomy mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 198 consecutive patients with HCC who underwent partial hepatectomies in the past 14 years was conducted. The selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures during the study period were KICG≥0.12 for hemihepatectomy, KICG≥0.10 for bisegmentectomy, KICG≥0.08 for monosegmentectomy, and KICG ≥0.06 for nonanatomic hepatectomy. The hepatectomies were categorized into three types: major hepatectomy (hemihepatectomy or a more extensive procedure),bisegmentectomy, and limited hepatectomy. Univariate (Fishers exact test) and multivariate (the logistic regression model) analyses were used.RESULTS: Postoperative mortality was 5% after major hepatectomy, 3% after bisegmentectomy, and 3% after limited hepatectomy. The three percentages were comparable (P = 0.876). The platelet count of ≤ 10x 104/μL was the strongest independent factor for postoperative mortality on univariate (P = 0.001) and multivariate (risk ratio,12.5; P= 0.029) analyses. No patient with a platelet count of >7.3x 104/μL died of postoperative morbidity, whereas 25% (6/24 patients) of patients with a platelet count of ≤7.3x 104/μL died (P<0.001).CONCLUSION: The selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures based on KICG are generally considered valid,because of the acceptable morbidity and mortality with these criteria. The preoperative platelet count independently affects morbidity and mortality after hepatectomy, suggesting that a combination of KICG and platelet count would further reduce postoperative mortality.

  16. Plasma biomarkers of acute GVHD and nonrelapse mortality: predictive value of measurements before GVHD onset and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, George B; Tabellini, Laura; Storer, Barry E; Lawler, Richard L; Martin, Paul J; Hansen, John A

    2015-07-01

    We identified plasma biomarkers that presaged outcomes in patients with gastrointestinal graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) by measuring 23 biomarkers in samples collected before initiation of treatment. Six analytes with the greatest accuracy in predicting grade 3-4 GVHD in the first cohort (74 patients) were then tested in a second cohort (76 patients). The same 6 analytes were also tested in samples collected at day 14 ± 3 from 167 patients free of GVHD at the time. Logistic regression and calculation of an area under a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve for each analyte were used to determine associations with outcome. Best models in the GVHD onset and landmark analyses were determined by forward selection. In samples from the second cohort, collected a median of 4 days before start of treatment, levels of TIM3, IL6, and sTNFR1 had utility in predicting development of peak grade 3-4 GVHD (area under ROC curve, 0.88). Plasma ST2 and sTNFR1 predicted nonrelapse mortality within 1 year after transplantation (area under ROC curve, 0.90). In the landmark analysis, plasma TIM3 predicted subsequent grade 3-4 GVHD (area under ROC curve, 0.76). We conclude that plasma levels of TIM3, sTNFR1, ST2, and IL6 are informative in predicting more severe GVHD and nonrelapse mortality. PMID:25987657

  17. External validation of nomograms for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients treated with definitive surgery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Zhu; Wei-Jie Gu; Ding-Wei Ye; Xu-Dong Yao; Shi-Lin Zhang; Bo Dai; Hai-Liang Zhang; Yi-Jun Shen

    2014-01-01

    Using a population-based cancer registry, Thuret et al. developed 3 nomograms for estimating cancer-specific mortality in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma. In the initial cohort, only 23.0% of the patients were treated with inguinal lymphadenectomy and had pN stage. To generalize the prediction models in clinical practice, we evaluated the performance of the 3 nomograms in a series of penile cancer patients who were treated with definitive surgery. Clinicopathologic information was obtained from 160 M0 penile cancer patients who underwent primary tumor excision and regional lymphadenectomy between 1990 and 2008. The predicted probabilities of cancer-specific mortality were calculated from 3 nomograms that were based on different disease stage definitions and tumor grade. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness were assessed to compare model performance. The discrimination ability was similar in nomograms using the TNM classification or American Joint Committee on Cancer staging (Harrell’s concordance index = 0.817 and 0.832, respectively), whereas it was inferior for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results staging (Harrel ’s concordance index = 0.728). Better agreement with the observed cancer-specific mortality was shown for the model consisting of TNM classification and tumor grade, which also achieved favorable clinical net benefit, with a threshold probability in the range of 0 to 42%. The nomogram consisting of TNM classification and tumor grading was shown to have better performance for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients who underwent definitive surgery. Our data support the integration of this model in decision-making and trial design.

  18. Admission cell free DNA levels predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis in intensive care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avital Avriel

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD level at admission measured by a new simplified method.CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome.Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone.CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT, suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making.

  19. Does change in hip circumference predict cardiovascular disease and overall mortality in Danish and Swedish women?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanfer, Anne; Mehlig, Kirsten; Heitmann, Berit L; Lissner, Lauren

    2014-01-01

    Accumulating evidence consistently shows that small hip circumference (HC) is related to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease, diabetes, and premature death in women. This study aims to clarify whether this inverse association can be found in both normal- and ove...... overweight individuals and if change in HC over time relates to morbidity and mortality risk....

  20. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-01-01

    related to the baseline examination. RESULTS: Of the 573 patients examined at baseline in 1981 and 1982, 297 (51.8%) were still alive in November 2006. Of the others, 256 (44.7%) had died, three (0.5%) had left Denmark and 17 (3%) were of unknown status. Age- and sex-adjusted HRs of mortality rate were 1...

  1. Oxidative Stress Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Patients.

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    Mar Masiá

    Full Text Available We aimed to assess whether oxidative stress is a predictor of mortality in HIV-infected patients.We conducted a nested case-control study in CoRIS, a contemporary, multicentre cohort of HIV-infected patients, antiretroviral-naïve at entry, launched in 2004. Cases were patients who died with available stored plasma samples collected. Two age and sex-matched controls for each case were selected. We measured F2-isoprostanes (F2-IsoPs and malondialdehyde (MDA plasma levels in the first blood sample obtained after cohort engagement.54 cases and 93 controls were included. Median F2-IsoPs and MDA levels were significantly higher in cases than in controls. When adjustment was performed for age, HIV-transmission category, CD4 cell count and HIV viral load at cohort entry, and subclinical inflammation measured with highly-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, the association of F2-IsoPs with mortality remained significant (adjusted OR per 1 log10 increase, 2.34 [1.23-4.47], P = 0.009. The association of MDA with mortality was attenuated after adjustment: adjusted OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 2.05 [0.91-4.59], P = 0.080. Median hsCRP was also higher in cases, and it also proved to be an independent predictor of mortality in the adjusted analysis: OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.39 (1.01-1.91, P = 0.043; and OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.46 (1.07-1.99, P = 0.014, respectively, when adjustment included F2-IsoPs and MDA.Oxidative stress is a predictor of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected patients. For plasma F2-IsoPs, this association is independent of HIV-related factors and subclinical inflammation.

  2. Does C-reactive protein independently predict mortality in adult community-acquired bacteremia patients with known sepsis severity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim O; Jensen, Thøger G; Kolmos, Hans J;

    2013-01-01

    characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate 30-day mortality in four models: (i) age, gender, comorbidity, bacteria, and ward. (ii) Model 1 and sepsis severity. (iii) Model 1 and CRP. (iv) Model 1, sepsis severity, and CRP. Altogether, 416 of 1999 patients died within 30 days. CRP independently predicted 30-day...... mortality [Model 4, odds ratio (95% CIs) for 100 mg/L: 1.16 (1.06-1.27)], but it did not contribute to the AUC (Model 2 vs Model 4: p = 0.31). In the 963 non-severe sepsis patients, CRP independently predicted 30-day mortality [Model 4: 1.42 (1.20-1.69)] and it increased the AUC (Model 2 vs Model 4: p = 0......We evaluated whether sepsis severity and C-reactive protein (CRP) level on admission prognostically corroborated or annulled each other in adult patients with incident community-acquired bacteremia (Funen, Denmark, 2000-2008). We used logistic regression and area under the receiver operating...

  3. Fecal Calprotectin in Healthy Children Aged 1-4 Years.

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    Qingling Zhu

    Full Text Available Calprotectin has been well emulated recently in adults as well as in children. The aim of this study was to assess fecal calprotectin concentrations in healthy children aged from 1 to 4 years.Volunteers were enlisted from 3 nurseries. A brief questionnaire was used to ensure these children meet the inclusion criteria, and some clinical and sociodemographic factors were collected. Anthro software (version 3.1 was used to calculated Length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ, weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZ, and weight-for-length Z-scores (WLZ respectively. Fecal calprotectin was detected by a commercially available ELISA.In total 274 children were recruited, with age ranging from 1 to 4 years old. The median FC concentration was 83.19 μg/g [range 4.58 to 702.50 μg/g, interquartile range (IQR 14.69-419.45 μg/g] or 1.92 log10 μg/g (range 0.66 log10 to 2.85 log10 μg/g, IQR 1.17 log10-2.62 log10 μg/g. All of the children were divided into three groups, 1-2 years (12-24 months, 2-3 years (24-36 months, 3-4 years (36-48 months, with median FC concentrations 96.14 μg/g (1.98 log10 μg/g, 81.48 μg/g (1.91 log10 μg/g, 65.36 μg/g (1.82 log10 μg/g, respectively. There was similar FC level between boys and girls. FC concentrations showed a downward trend by the growing age groups. A statistic difference was found in FC concentrations among groups 1-2 years, 2-3 years and 3-4 years (P = 0.016. In inter-groups comparison, a significant difference was found between children aged 1-2 years and children aged 3-4 years (P = 0.007. A negative correlation trend was found between age and FC concentration (Spearman's rho = -0.167, P = 0.005 in all the participants. A simple correlation was performed among WLZ, WAZ, birth weight, or birth length with FC, and there was no correlation being observed.Children aged from 1 to 4 years old have lower FC concentrations compared with healthy infants (<1years, and higher FC concentrations when comparing with children older than 4

  4. Fecal calprotectin: its scope and utility in the management of inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikhtaire, Shapur; Shajib, Mohammad Sharif; Reinisch, Walter; Khan, Waliul Islam

    2016-05-01

    Gastrointestinal symptoms such as abdominal pain, dyspepsia, and diarrhea are relatively nonspecific and a common cause for seeking medical attention. To date, it is challenging for physicians to differentiate between functional and organic gastrointestinal conditions and it involves the use of serological and endoscopic techniques. Therefore, a simple, noninvasive, inexpensive, and effective test would be of utmost importance in clinical practice. Fecal calprotectin (FC) is considered to be a reliable biomarker that fulfills these criteria. FC can detect intestinal inflammation, and its level correlates well with macroscopic and histological inflammation as detected by colonoscopy and biopsies, respectively. FC has a decent diagnostic accuracy for differentiating organic diseases and functional disorders because of its excellent negative predictive value in ruling out inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in symptomatic undiagnosed patients. There is accumulating evidence that FC has been effectively used to monitor the natural course of IBD, to predict relapse, and to see the response to treatment. This novel biomarker has the ability to assess mucosal healing (MH), which is a therapeutic goal in IBD management. A literature search was carried out using PubMed with the keywords FC, IBD, intestinal inflammation, and MH. In our review, we provide an overview of the utility and scope of FC as a biomarker in patients with IBD as well as undiagnosed patients with lower gastrointestinal symptoms. PMID:26897740

  5. Basic geriatric assessment does not predict in-hospital mortality after PEG placement

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    Smoliner Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG is an established procedure for long-term nutrition. However, studies have underlined the importance of proper patient selection as mortality has been shown to be relatively high in acute illness and certain patient groups, amongst others geriatric patients. Objective of the study was to gather information about geriatric patients receiving PEG and to identify risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after PEG placement. Methods All patients from the GEMIDAS database undergoing percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in acute geriatric wards from 2006 to 2010 were included in a retrospective database analysis. Data on age, gender, main diagnosis leading to hospital admission, death in hospital, care level, and legal incapacitation were extracted from the main database of the Geriatric Minimum Data Set. Self-care capacity was assessed by the Barthel index, and cognitive status was rated with the Mini Mental State Examination or subjectively judged by the clinician. Descriptive statistics and group comparisons were chosen according to data distribution and scale of measurement, logistic regression analysis was performed to examine influence of various factors on hospital mortality. Results A total of 1232 patients (60.4% women with a median age of 82 years (range 60 to 99 years were included. The mean Barthel index at admission was 9.5 ± 14.0 points. Assessment of cognitive status was available in about half of the patients (n = 664, with 20% being mildly impaired and almost 70% being moderately to severely impaired. Stroke was the most common main diagnosis (55.2%. In-hospital mortality was 12.8%. In a logistic regression analysis, old age (odds ratio (OR 1.030, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.003-1.056, male sex (OR 1.741, 95% CI 1.216-2.493, and pneumonia (OR 2.641, 95% CI 1.457-4.792 or the diagnosis group ‘miscellaneous disease’ (OR 1.864, 95% CI 1

  6. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  7. Prediction of Mortality in Pediatric Burn Injuries: R-Baux Score to Be Applied in Children (Pediatrics-Baux Score

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    Hamid Karimi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: R-Baux score has obtained an acceptable validity and accuracy in predicting burn-related mortality. However, its usage and efficacy among pediatric burn patients has not been well documented. The aim of this study was to employ Pediatrics-Baux (P-Buax score as modified version of R-Baux score in these patients to determine how it could be applicable in this population.Methods: Through a prospective study, 870 pediatric burn patients were enrolled. P-Baux and R-Baux scores were calculated for each patient and they were categorized to different groups according to these scores. Mortality and further death probability were measured for each subject and then analyzed by logistic regression model to reveal how they change in relation with age in pediatric burn patients.Findings: R-Baux score for 95% probability of death revealed a mean of 73 among patients of this study. Also P-Baux score was measured in these patients with inhalation injury which showed to be 55 for 95% probability of death. Results showed that age had a positive prognostic value in contrast to the negative prognostic value of Total Body Surface Area (TBSA and inhalation injury.Conclusion: Our analysis showed that in children under the age of 15 years, age has a positive prognostic value while TBSA and inhalation injuries had negative prognostic values in relation to mortality. Hence, in contrast to the adult population, burn injury related mortality may be predicted by modified R-Baux score as (TBSA - age + [18×R] which could be named as P-Baux score.

  8. Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Martin E. P. Seligman

    2015-01-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors...

  9. Plasma Amino Acid Concentrations Predict Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Liver Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinny-Köster, Benedict; Bartels, Michael; Becker, Susen; Scholz, Markus; Thiery, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Background The liver plays a key role in amino acid metabolism. In former studies, a ratio between branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (Fischer’s ratio) revealed associations with hepatic encephalopathy. Furthermore, low concentrations of branched-chain amino acids were linked to sarcopenia in literature. Encephalopathy and sarcopenia are known to dramatically worsen the prognosis. Aim of this study was to investigate a complex panel of plasma amino acids in the context of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease. Methods 166 patients evaluated for orthotopic liver transplantation were included. 19 amino acids were measured from citrated plasma samples using mass spectrometry. We performed survival analysis for plasma amino acid constellations and examined the relationship to established mortality predictors. Results 33/166 (19.9%) patients died during follow-up. Lower values of valine (p<0.001), Fischer’s ratio (p<0.001) and valine to phenylalanine ratio (p<0.001) and higher values of phenylalanine (p<0.05) and tyrosine (p<0.05) were significantly associated with mortality. When divided in three groups, the tertiles discriminated cumulative survival for valine (p = 0.016), phenylalanine (p = 0.024) and in particular for valine to phenylalanine ratio (p = 0.003) and Fischer’s ratio (p = 0.005). Parameters were also significantly correlated with MELD and MELD-Na score. Conclusions Amino acids in plasma are valuable biomarkers to determine increased risk of mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease. In particular, valine concentrations and constellations composed of branched-chain and aromatic amino acids were strongly associated with prognosis. Due to their pathophysiological importance, the identified amino acids could be used to examine individual dietary recommendations to serve as potential therapeutic targets. PMID:27410482

  10. Predicting mortality in patients treated differently: updating and external validation of a prediction model for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory infections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymans, Martijn W; Mehr, David R; Kruse, Robin L; Lane, Patricia; Kowall, Neil W; Volicer, Ladislav; van der Steen, Jenny T

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether a model that was previously developed to predict 14-day mortality for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory tract infection who received antibiotics could be applied to residents who were not treated with antibiotics. Specifically, in this same data set, to update the model using recalibration methods; and subsequently examine the historical, geographical, methodological and spectrum transportability through external validation of the updated model. Design 1 cohort study was used to develop the prediction model, and 4 cohort studies from 2 countries were used for the external validation of the model. Setting Nursing homes in the Netherlands and the USA. Participants 157 untreated residents were included in the development of the model; 239 untreated residents were included in the external validation cohorts. Outcome Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination: area under the receiver operating characteristic curves; and calibration: Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics and calibration graphs. Further, reclassification tables allowed for a comparison of patient classifications between models. Results The original prediction model applied to the untreated residents, who were sicker, showed excellent discrimination but poor calibration, underestimating mortality. Adjusting the intercept improved calibration. Recalibrating the slope did not substantially improve the performance of the model. Applying the updated model to the other 4 data sets resulted in acceptable discrimination. Calibration was inadequate only in one data set that differed substantially from the other data sets in case-mix. Adjusting the intercept for this population again improved calibration. Conclusions The discriminative performance of the model seems robust for differences between settings. To improve calibration, we recommend adjusting the intercept when applying the model in settings where different mortality rates

  11. Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Measuring Fecal Calprotectin in Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhuo; Clark, Nick; Park, KT

    2013-01-01

    Background & Aims The level of fecal calprotectin (FC) can predict the onset of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with high accuracy and precision. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using measurements of FC to identify adults and children who require endoscopic confirmation of IBD. METHODS We constructed a decision analytic tree to compare the cost-effectiveness of measuring FC before endoscopy examination with that of direct endoscopic evaluation alone. A second decision analytic tree was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of FC cut-off levels of 100 µg/g vs 50 µg/g (typically used to screen for intestinal inflammation). The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost required to avoid 1 false-negative result using FC level to diagnose new-onset IBD. RESULTS In adults, FC screening saved $417/patient but delayed diagnosis for 2.2/32 patients with IBD, among 100 screened patients. In children, FC screening saved $300/patient but delayed diagnosis for 4.8/61 patients with IBD, among 100 screened patients. If endoscopic biopsy analysis remained the standard for diagnosis, direct endoscopic evaluation would cost an additional $18,955 in adults and $6250 in children to avoid 1 false negative result from FC screening. Sensitivity analyses showed that cost effectiveness of FC screening varied with the sensitivity of the test and the pre-test probability of IBD in adults and children. Pre-test probabilities for IBD of ≤75% in adults and ≤65% in children made FC screening cost-effective, but cost ineffective if the probabilities were ≥85% and ≥78% in adults and children, respectively. Compared to the FC cut-off level of 100 µg/g, the cut-off level of 50 µg/g cost an additional $55 and $43 for adults and children, respectively, but yielded 2.4 and 6.1 additional accurate diagnoses of IBD per 100 screened adults and children. CONCLUSIONS Screening adults and children to measure fecal levels of calprotectin is effective and cost-effective in

  12. Identification of enhanced cytokine generation following sepsis. Dream of magic bullet for mortality prediction and therapeutic evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Hamishehkar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available "n  "nBackground and the purpose of the study: sepsis is one of the most widespread and lethal disease in Intensive Care Units (ICU. Based on pathophisyology of sepsis, it seems that routine laboratory tests combined with analysis of pro-inflammatory cytokines plasma levels, help clinicians to have more information about disease progress and its correct management. "nMethods:This was a prospective observational study to determine the predictive role of Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interleukin (IL-1β and IL-6 as three main pro-inflammatory cytokines and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA as two scoring systems in mortality of critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Fifty and five patients with criteria of severe sepsis were included in this study. An exclusion criterion was post Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR status. Cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 were assayed in the first, third and seventh days in blood of patients. Results and major conclusion:Among three measured cytokines, sequential levels of TNF-α and IL-6 showed significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors. IL-6 had a good correlation with outcome and scoring systems during the period of this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve indicated that APACHE II (0.858, 0.848, 0.861 and IL-6 (0.797, 0.799, 0.899 had discriminative power in prediction of mortality during sequental measured days. Multiple logestic regression analysis identified that evaluation of APACHE II and TNF-α in the first day and APACHE II and IL-6 in the third and seventh days of severe septic patients are independent outcome predictors. Results of this study suggest that IL-6 and APACHE II are useful cytokine and scoring systems respectively in prediction of mortality and clinical evaluation of severe septic patients.

  13. Comparison of different comorbidity measures for use with administrative data in predicting short- and long-term mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ng Yee-Yung

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to find a comorbidity measure with better performance for use with administrative data. The new method proposed by Elixhauser et al. has never been validated and compared to the widely used Charlson method in the Asia region. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of three comorbidity measures using information from different data periods in predicting short- and long-term mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Health Insurance claims data (2001-2002 in Taiwan. We constructed the Elixhauser, the Charlson/Deyo, and the Charlson/Romano methods based on the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes in the claims data. Two data periods, including the index hospitalization as well as the index and prior 1-year hospitalizations, were used in the analysis. The performances were compared using the c-statistics derived from multiple logistic regression models that included age, gender, race, and whether the patient received surgery or not. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Results The performance was in the same rank order among both populations regardless of the outcome and data period: Elixhauser > Charlson/Romano > Charlson/Deyo. In predicting in-hospital mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index hospitalization performed best, even better than the Charlson/Deyo or Charlson/Romano models using information from the index and prior hospitalizations. Nevertheless, in predicting 1-year mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index and 1-year prior hospitalizations performed better than using information from the index hospitalization only. Conclusions This is so far the first study to validate the Elixhauser method and compare it to other methods in

  14. Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiro Nishi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking, symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.14-2.80] than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018. The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30] was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549. CONCLUSIONS: The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than

  15. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, KSL; Ludman, PF; Hulme, W; de Belder, MA; Stables, R.; Chowdhary, S.; Mamas, M; Sperrin, M; Buchan, I

    2016-01-01

    Aims: The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients who were treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. Methods and Results: The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried o...

  16. Plasma calprotectin and its association with cardiovascular disease manifestations, obesity and the metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lise; Nybo, M.; Poulsen, M. K.;

    2014-01-01

    Background: Plasma calprotectin is a potential biomarker of cardiovascular disease (CVD), insulin resistance (IR), and obesity. We examined the relationship between plasma calprotectin concentrations, CVD manifestations and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2...

  17. Usefulness of Adjunctive Fecal Calprotectin and Serum Procalcitonin in Individuals Positive for Clostridium difficile Toxin Gene by PCR Assay

    OpenAIRE

    Kristin Y Popiel; Gheorghe, Romina; Eastmond, Jennifer; Miller, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    In 54/64 subjects with nosocomial diarrhea, fecal calprotectin levels correlated with the results of stool samples tested for Clostridium difficile toxin gene by PCR. Fecal calprotectin levels can be used as an adjunctive measure to PCR to support the diagnosis of C. difficile infection.

  18. Usefulness of Adjunctive Fecal Calprotectin and Serum Procalcitonin in Individuals Positive for Clostridium difficile Toxin Gene by PCR Assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popiel, Kristin Y; Gheorghe, Romina; Eastmond, Jennifer; Miller, Mark A

    2015-11-01

    In 54/64 subjects with nosocomial diarrhea, fecal calprotectin levels correlated with the results of stool samples tested for Clostridium difficile toxin gene by PCR. Fecal calprotectin levels can be used as an adjunctive measure to PCR to support the diagnosis of C. difficile infection. PMID:26354814

  19. Evaluation of circulating proteins and hemodynamics towards predicting mortality in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brandie D Wagner

    Full Text Available Although many predictors have been evaluated, a set of strong independent prognostic mortality indicators has not been established in children with pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and molecular predictors of survival in PAH.This single-center, retrospective cohort study was performed from children with PAH between 2001 and 2008 at Children's Hospital Colorado. Blood samples from 83 patients (median age of 8.3 years-old were obtained. We retrospectively analyzed 46 variables, which included 27 circulating proteins, 7 demographic variables and 12 hemodynamic and echocardiographic variables for establishing the best predictors of mortality. A data mining approach was utilized to evaluate predictor variables and to uncover complex data structures while performing variable selection in high dimensional problems.Thirteen children (16% died during follow-up (median; 3.1 years and survival rates from time of sample collection at 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were 95%, 85% and 79%, respectively. A subset of potentially informative predictors were identified, the top four are listed here in order of importance: Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1, apolipoprotein-AI, RV/LV diastolic dimension ratio and age at diagnosis. In univariate analysis, TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI had significant association with survival time (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.25 [1.03, 1.51] and 0.70 [0.54-0.90], respectively. Patients grouped by TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI values had significantly different survival risks (p<0.01.Important predictors of mortality were identified from a large number of circulating proteins and clinical markers in this cohort. If confirmed in other populations, measurement of a subset of these predictors could aid in management of pediatric PAH by identifying patients at risk for death. These findings also further support a role for the clinical

  20. Can we use serum gamma-glutamyl transferase levels to predict early mortality in stroke?

    OpenAIRE

    Akinci, Emine; Doğan, Nurettin Özgür; GÜMÜŞ, Haluk; Akilli, Nazire Belgin

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) is a marker for alcohol consumption and hepatobiliary diseases. There are reports on the prognostic role of GGT in coronary artery diseases and stroke. The aim of our study was to identify the potential differences in GGT levels in different types of stroke, and to evaluate the correlation between GGT and 30-day mortality. Method: Patients diagnosed with stroke in emergency department between 01.01.2010 and 30.12.2012 was included in the study...

  1. A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

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    Nir Y Krakauer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

  2. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckens, C.F. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Graaf, Y. van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verkooijen, H.M.; Mali, W.P.; Jong, P.A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); Isgum, I.; Mol, C.P. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verhaar, H.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Geriatric Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Vliegenthart, R.; Oudkerk, M. [Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Aalst, C.M. van; Koning, H.J. de [Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-01-15

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant and acute;s semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35 % (95 % confidence interval 30-40 %) among survivors and 51 % (44-58 %) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. (orig.)

  3. Using machine learning methods for predicting inhospital mortality in patients undergoing open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsalve-Torra, Ana; Ruiz-Fernandez, Daniel; Marin-Alonso, Oscar; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Camacho-Mackenzie, Jaime; Carreño-Jaimes, Marisol

    2016-08-01

    An abdominal aortic aneurysm is an abnormal dilatation of the aortic vessel at abdominal level. This disease presents high rate of mortality and complications causing a decrease in the quality of life and increasing the cost of treatment. To estimate the mortality risk of patients undergoing surgery is complex due to the variables associated. The use of clinical decision support systems based on machine learning could help medical staff to improve the results of surgery and get a better understanding of the disease. In this work, the authors present a predictive system of inhospital mortality in patients who were undergoing to open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. Different methods as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian networks are used. Results are measured in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifiers, achieving an accuracy higher than 95%. The developing of a system based on the algorithms tested can be useful for medical staff in order to make a better planning of care and reducing undesirable surgery results and the cost of the post-surgical treatments. PMID:27395372

  4. Plasma fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration is increased and predicts mortality in patients on the liver-transplant waiting list.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique Prié

    Full Text Available High plasma fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23 concentration predicts the risk of death and poor outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease or chronic heart failure. We checked if FGF23 concentration could be modified in patients with end stage liver disease (ESLD and predict mortality. We measured plasma FGF23 in 200 patients with ESLD registered on a liver transplant waiting list between January 2005 and October 2008. We found that median plasma FGF23 concentration was above normal values in 63% of the patients. Increased FGF23 concentration was not explained by its classical determinants: hyperphosphataemia, increased calcitriol concentration or decreased renal function. FGF23 concentration correlated with the MELD score, serum sodium concentration, and GFR. Forty-six patients died before being transplanted and 135 underwent liver transplantation. We analyzed the prognostic value of FGF23 levels. Mortality was significantly associated with FGF23 levels, the MELD score, serum sodium concentration and glomerular filtration rate. On multivariate analyses only FGF23 concentration was associated with mortality. FGF23 levels were independent of the cause of the liver disease. To determine if the damaged liver can produce FGF23 we measured plasma FGF23 concentration and liver FGF23 mRNA expression in control and diethyl-nitrosamine (DEN-treated mice. FGF23 plasma levels increased with the apparition of liver lesions in DEN-treated mice and that FGF23 mRNA expression, which was undetectable in the liver of control mice, markedly increased with the development of liver lesions. The correlation between FGF23 plasma concentration and FGF23 mRNA expression in DEN-treated mice suggests that FGF23 production by the liver accounts for the increased plasma FGF23 concentration. In conclusion chronic liver lesions can induce expression of FGF23 mRNA leading to increased FGF23 concentration, which is associated with a higher mortality in patients on a

  5. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne;

    2016-01-01

    .35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.63], respectively). CONCLUSIONS:  Plasma sCD163 was an independent marker of all-cause mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals, suggesting that monocyte/macrophage activation may play a role in HIV pathogenesis and be a target of intervention....... immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). METHODS:  Plasma sCD163 levels were measured in 933 HIV-infected individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with mortality were computed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS:  At baseline, 86% were receiving antiretroviral...... treatment, 73% had plasma a HIV RNA level of <50 copies/mL, and the median CD4(+) T-cell count was 503 cells/µL. During 10.5 years of follow-up, 167 (17.9%) died. Plasma sCD163 levels were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (4.92 mg/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 3.29-8.65 mg/L] vs 3.16 mg/L [IQR, 2...

  6. Value of fecal calprotectin in the evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort: an observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort is challenging and patient selection for endoscopy based on symptoms is not reliable. We evaluated the diagnostic value of fecal calprotectin in patients with abdominal discomfort. Methods In an observational study, 575 consecutive patients with abdominal discomfort referred for endoscopy to the Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology at the University Hospital Basel in Switzerland, were enrolled in the study. Calprotectin was measured in stool samples collected within 24 hours before the investigation using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The presence of a clinically significant finding in the gastrointestinal tract was the primary endpoint of the study. Final diagnoses were adjudicated blinded to calprotectin values. Results Median calprotectin levels were higher in patients with significant findings (N = 212, median 97 μg/g, IQR 43-185) than in patients without (N = 326, 10 μg/g, IQR 10-23, P 50 years, the diagnostic precision remained unchanged (AUC 0.889 vs. 0.832, P = 0.165). Conclusion In patients with abdominal discomfort, fecal calprotectin is a useful non-invasive marker to identify clinically significant findings of the gastrointestinal tract, irrespective of age. PMID:22233279

  7. Value of fecal calprotectin in the evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manz Michael

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort is challenging and patient selection for endoscopy based on symptoms is not reliable. We evaluated the diagnostic value of fecal calprotectin in patients with abdominal discomfort. Methods In an observational study, 575 consecutive patients with abdominal discomfort referred for endoscopy to the Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology at the University Hospital Basel in Switzerland, were enrolled in the study. Calprotectin was measured in stool samples collected within 24 hours before the investigation using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The presence of a clinically significant finding in the gastrointestinal tract was the primary endpoint of the study. Final diagnoses were adjudicated blinded to calprotectin values. Results Median calprotectin levels were higher in patients with significant findings (N = 212, median 97 μg/g, IQR 43-185 than in patients without (N = 326, 10 μg/g, IQR 10-23, P 50 years, the diagnostic precision remained unchanged (AUC 0.889 vs. 0.832, P = 0.165. Conclusion In patients with abdominal discomfort, fecal calprotectin is a useful non-invasive marker to identify clinically significant findings of the gastrointestinal tract, irrespective of age.

  8. NT-ProBNP Independently Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients Admitted for Coronary Angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Martin Huth; Goetze, Jens Peter; Bech, Jan;

    2014-01-01

    Recently, research interests are focussed on biomarkers to predict the outcome in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined whether the levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) could predict outcome in patients who underwent elective or acute coronary......%) patients died and 88 (26%) patients reached the combined end point. Preprocedural NT-proBNP above 32 pmol/L independently predicted ACM (hazard ratio [HR] 3.11; confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-6.07; P = .001) and the combined end point (HR 2.44 [CI: 1.50-3.97]; P NT...

  9. Systemic Inflammation Response Syndrome Score Predicts the Mortality in Multiple Trauma Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Baek, Jong Hyun; Kim, Myeong Su; Lee, Jung Cheul; Lee, Jang Hoon

    2014-01-01

    Background Numerous statistical models have been developed to accurately predict outcomes in multiple trauma patients. However, such trauma scoring systems reflect the patient’s physiological condition, which can only be determined to a limited extent, and are difficult to use when performing a rapid initial assessment. We studied the predictive ability of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score compared to other scoring systems. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 229 patien...

  10. Elevated soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predicts mortality in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mölkänen, T; Ruotsalainen, E; Thorball, C W;

    2011-01-01

    the first positive blood culture for S. aureus, suPAR levels were higher in 19 fatalities (median 12.3; range 5.7-64.6 ng/mL) than in 40 survivors (median 8.4; range 3.7-17.6 ng/mL, p = 0.002). This difference persisted for 10 days. The presence of deep infection focus was not associated with elevated su...... are scarce. To elucidate the role of suPAR in a common bacteremic infection, the serum suPAR levels in 59 patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) were measured using the suPARnostic ELISA assay and associations to 1-month mortality and with deep infection focus were analyzed. On day three, after...

  11. Physical activity assessed in routine care predicts mortality after a COPD hospitalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn L. Moy

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The independent relationship between physical inactivity and risk of death after an index chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD hospitalisation is unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a large integrated healthcare system. Patients were included if they were hospitalised for COPD between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011. All-cause mortality in the 12 months after discharge was the primary outcome. Physical activity, expressed as self-reported minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA, was routinely assessed at outpatient visits prior to hospitalisation. 1727 (73% patients were inactive (0 min of MVPA per week, 412 (17% were insufficiently active (1–149 min of MVPA per week and 231 (10% were active (≥150 min of MVPA per week. Adjusted Cox regression models assessed risk of death across the MVPA categories. Among 2370 patients (55% females and mean age 73±11 years, there were 464 (20% deaths. Patients who were insufficiently active or active had a 28% (adjusted HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.54–0.97, p=0.03 and 47% (adjusted HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.34–0.84, p<0.01 lower risk of death, respectively, in the 12 months following an index COPD hospitalisation compared to inactive patients. Any level of MVPA is associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality after a COPD hospitalisation. Routine assessment of physical activity in clinical care would identify persons at high risk for dying after COPD hospitalisation.

  12. Hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale score and ICH score: which predicts the 30-day mortality better for intracerebral hematoma?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Wei Wang

    Full Text Available To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality.This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018, 0.715 (P = 0.0008 (by ABC/2 to 0.738 (P = 0.0002 (by CAVA, 0.877 (P<0.0001 (by ABC/2 to 0.882 (P<0.0001 (by CAVA, and 0.912 (P<0.0001, respectively.Our study shows that hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score.

  13. Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2013-03-01

    Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance. PMID:23364879

  14. Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: Clinical and computed tomography findings in predicting in-hospital mortality in Central Africans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Lelo Tshikwela

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH constitutes now 52% of all strokes. Despite of its deadly pattern, locally there is no clinical grading scale for ICH-related mortality prediction. The first objective of this study was to develop a risk stratification scale (Kinshasa ICH score by assessing the strength of independent predictors and their association with in-hospital 30-day mortality. The second objective of the study was to create a specific local and African model for ICH prognosis. Materials and Methods: Age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, smoking, alcohol intake, and neuroimaging data from CT scan (ICH volume, Midline shift of patients admitted with primary ICH and follow-upped in 33 hospitals of Kinshasa, DR Congo, from 2005 to 2008, were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results: A total of 185 adults and known hypertensive patients (140 men and 45 women were examined. 30-day mortality rate was 35% (n=65. ICH volume>25 mL (OR=8 95% CI: 3.1-20.2; P 7 mm, a consequence of ICH volume, was also a significant predictor of mortality. The Kinshasa ICH score was the sum of individual points assigned as follows: Presence of coma coded 2 (2 × 2 = 4, absence of coma coded 1 (1 × 2 = 2, ICH volume>25 mL coded 2 (2 × 2=4, ICH volume of ≤25 mL coded 1(1 × 2=2, left hemispheric site of ICH coded 2 (2 × 1=2, and right hemispheric site of hemorrhage coded 1(1 × 1 = 1. All patients with Kinshasa ICH score ≤7 survived and the patients with a score >7 died. In considering sex influence (Model 3, points were allowed as follows: Presence of coma (2 × 3 = 6, absence of coma (1 × 3 = 3, men (2 × 2 = 4, women (1 × 2 = 2, midline shift ≤7 mm (1 × 3 = 3, and midline shift >7 mm (2 × 3 = 6. Patients who died had the Kinshasa ICH score ≥16. Conclusion: In this study, the Kinshasa ICH score seems to be an accurate method for distinguishing those ICH patients who need continuous and special management

  15. [FECAL NONINVASIVE TESTS (CALPROTECTIN, TRANSFERRIN, HEMOGLOBIN) IN COMPLEX DIAGNOSIS OF DISEASES OF INTESTINES].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livzan, M A; Lyalukova, E A; Nechaeva, G; Osipenko, M F; Dolgih, T I

    2015-01-01

    A research objective was the assessment of informational content of fecal noninvasive tests (calprotectin, transferrin, hemoglobin) in complex diagnosis of diseases of intestines. Open kogortny research by method of a cross cut included 52 patients (middle age - 38,6 years) with IBS-like symptoms (abdominal pain or discomfort, change of frequency and/or character of a chair). Sensitivity of dough on calprotectin for diagnosis of organic pathology of intestines made (89%), for dough on calprotectin and hemoglobin - also 89%. At patients at incomplete compliance of clinical signs to diagnostic criteria of IBS and lack of endoscopic signs of damage of a large intestine research on fecal biomarkers allows to increase efficiency of diagnostics. PMID:26281175

  16. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per; Johansen, Julia S; Hansen, Jørgen Fischer; Jensen, Gorm Boje; Hilden, Jørgen; Kjøller, Erik; Kolmos, Hans J; Gluud, Christian; Kastrup, Jens

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease...

  17. Functional Capacity, Respiratory Muscle Strength, and Oxygen Consumption Predict Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faustini Pereira, José Leonardo; Galant, Lucas Homercher; Rossi, Danusa; Telles da Rosa, Luis Henrique; Garcia, Eduardo; de Mello Brandão, Ajácio Bandeira; Marroni, Cláudio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Liver diseases influence musculoskeletal functions and may negatively affect the exercise capacity of patients with cirrhosis. Aim. To test the relationship between the six-minute walk test (6MWT), maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP), and exercise capacity (VO2peak) measures and the survival rate of patients with cirrhosis. Methods. This prospective cohort study consisted of 86 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis with the following aetiology: hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and/or alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). All patients were followed up for three years and submitted to the 6MWT, pressure measurements with a compound gauge, and an exercise test (VO2peak). Results. The survival analysis showed that the individuals who covered a distance shorter than 410 m during the 6MWT had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 97% for the individuals who walked more than 410 m (p = 0.0001). Individuals with MIPs below -70 cmH2O had a survival rate of 62% compared with a rate of 93% for those with MIPs above -70 cmH2O (p = 0.0001). The patients with values below 17 mL/kg had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 94% for those with values above 17 mL/kg (p = 0.0001). Conclusion. The 6MWT distance, MIP, and oxygen consumption are predictors of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. PMID:27559536

  18. Functional Capacity, Respiratory Muscle Strength, and Oxygen Consumption Predict Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Leonardo Faustini Pereira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Liver diseases influence musculoskeletal functions and may negatively affect the exercise capacity of patients with cirrhosis. Aim. To test the relationship between the six-minute walk test (6MWT, maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP, and exercise capacity (VO2peak measures and the survival rate of patients with cirrhosis. Methods. This prospective cohort study consisted of 86 patients diagnosed with cirrhosis with the following aetiology: hepatitis C virus (HCV, hepatitis B virus (HBV, and/or alcoholic cirrhosis (AC. All patients were followed up for three years and submitted to the 6MWT, pressure measurements with a compound gauge, and an exercise test (VO2peak. Results. The survival analysis showed that the individuals who covered a distance shorter than 410 m during the 6MWT had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 97% for the individuals who walked more than 410 m (p = 0.0001. Individuals with MIPs below −70 cmH2O had a survival rate of 62% compared with a rate of 93% for those with MIPs above −70 cmH2O (p = 0.0001. The patients with values below 17 mL/kg had a survival rate of 55% compared with a rate of 94% for those with values above 17 mL/kg (p = 0.0001. Conclusion. The 6MWT distance, MIP, and oxygen consumption are predictors of mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

  19. Limitations of the MELD score in predicting mortality or need for removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidt Jan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a poor prognosis and liver transplantation provides the only curative treatment option with excellent long-term results. The relative shortage of organ donors renders the allocation algorithms of organs essential. The optimal strategy based on scoring systems and/or waiting time is still under debate. Methods Data sets of 268 consecutive patients listed for single-organ liver transplantation for nonfulminant liver disease between 2003 and 2005 were included into the study. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP scores of all patients at the time of listing were used for calculation. The predictive ability not only for mortality on the waiting list but also for the need for withdrawal from the waiting list was calculated for both scores. The Mann-Whitney-U Test was used for the univariate analysis and the AUC-Model for discrimination of the scores. Results In the univariate analysis comparing patients who are still on the waiting list and patients who died or were removed from the waiting list due to poor conditions, the serum albumin, bilirubin INR, and CTP and MELD scores as well as the presence of ascites and encephalopathy were significantly different between the groups (p Comparing the predictive abilities of CTP and MELD scores, the best discrimination between patients still alive on the waiting list and patients who died on or were removed from the waiting list was achieved at a CTP score of ≥9 and a MELD score of ≥14.4. The sensitivity and specificity to identify mortality or severe deterioration for CTP was 69.0% and 70.5%, respectively; for MELD, it was 62.1% and 72.7%, respectively. This result was supported by the AUC analysis showing a strong trend for superiority of CTP over MELD scores (AUROC 0.73 and 0.68, resp.; p = 0.091. Conclusion The long term prediction of mortality or removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver

  20. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Katherine S.L.; Ludman, Peter F.; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A.; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A.; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E.

    2016-01-01

    Background The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. Methods and results The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. Conclusion We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. PMID:26942330

  1. Does Cognitive Ability Predict Mortality in the Ninth Decade? The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Catherine; Pattie, Alison; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

    2012-01-01

    To test whether cognitive ability predicts survival from age 79 to 89 years data were collected from 543 (230 male) participants who entered the study at a mean age of 79.1 years. Most had taken the Moray House Test of general intelligence (MHT) when aged 11 and 79 years from which, in addition to intelligence measures at these two time points,…

  2. Modified Kigali Combined Staging Predicts Risk of Mortality in HIV-Infected Adults in Lusaka, Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Peters, Philip J.; Zulu, Isaac; Kancheya, Nzali G.; Lakhi, Shabir; Chomba, Elwyn; Vwalika, Cheswa; Kim, Dhong-Jin; Brill, Ilene; Meinzen-Derr, Jareen; Tichacek, Amanda; Allen, Susan A.

    2008-01-01

    We assessed the utility of the modified Kigali combined (MKC) staging system for predicting survival in HIV-infected Zambian adults in a prospective, longitudinal, open cohort. From 1995 to 2004, HIV-discordant couples (one HIV-infected partner and one HIV-negative partner) were recruited from couples' voluntary counseling and testing centers in Lusaka, Zambia and followed at 3-month intervals. MKC stage, which incorporates clinical stage with erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), hematocrit,...

  3. Depth of Bacterial Invasion in Resected Intestinal Tissue Predicts Mortality in Surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis

    OpenAIRE

    Remon, Juan I.; Amin, Sachin C.; Mehendale, Sangeeta R; Rao, Rakesh; Luciano, Angel A.; Garzon, Steven A.; Maheshwari, Akhil

    2015-01-01

    Objective Up to a third of all infants who develop necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) require surgical resection of necrotic bowel. We hypothesized that the histopathological findings in surgically-resected bowel can predict the clinical outcome of these infants. Study design We reviewed the medical records and archived pathology specimens from all patients who underwent bowel resection/autopsy for NEC at a regional referral center over a 10-year period. Pathology specimens were graded for the d...

  4. Comprehensive geriatric assessment predicts mortality and adverse outcomes in hospitalized older adults

    OpenAIRE

    Avelino-Silva, Thiago J; Jose M Farfel; Curiati, Jose AE; Amaral, Jose RG; Campora, Flavia; Jacob-Filho, Wilson

    2014-01-01

    Background Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) provides detailed information on clinical, functional and cognitive aspects of older patients and is especially useful for assessing frail individuals. Although a large proportion of hospitalized older adults demonstrate a high level of complexity, CGA was not developed specifically for this setting. Our aim was to evaluate the application of a CGA model for the clinical characterization and prognostic prediction of hospitalized older adults...

  5. Clinical and histopathological correlations of fecal calprotectin release in colorectal carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Frank Serge; Trapani, Francesca; Fueglistaler, Ida; Terracciano, Luigi Maria; von Flüe, Markus; Cathomas, Gieri; Zettl, Andreas; Benkert, Pascal; Oertli, Daniel; Beglinger, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To determine calprotectin release before and after colorectal cancer operation and compare it to tumor and histopathological parameters. METHODS: The study was performed on patients with diagnosed colorectal cancer admitted for operation. Calprotectin was measured in a single stool sample before and three months after the operation using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Calprotectin levels greater than or equal to 50 μg/g were considered positive. The compliance for collecting stool samples was assessed and the value of calprotectin was correlated to tumor and histopathological parameters of intra- and peri-tumoral inflammation. Surgical specimens were fixed in neutral buffered formalin and stained with hematoxylin and eosin. Staging was performed according to the Dukes classification system and the 7th edition tumor node metastasis classification system. Intra- and peri-tumoral inflammation was graded according to the Klintrup criteria. Immunohistochemical quantification was performed for MPO, CD45R0, TIA-1, CD3, CD4, CD8, CD57, and granzyme B. Statistical significance was measured using Wilcoxon signed rank test, Kruskal Wallis test and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient as appropriate. RESULTS: Between March 2009 and May 2011, 80 patients with colorectal cancer (46 men and 34 women, with mean age of 71 ± 11.7 years old) were enrolled in the study. Twenty-six patients had rectal carcinoma, 29 had left-side tumors, 23 had right-side tumors, and 2 had bilateral carcinoma. In total, 71.2% of the patients had increased levels of calprotectin before the operation (median 205 μg/g, range 50-2405 μg/g) and experienced a significant decrease three months after the operation (46 μg/g, range 10-384 μg/g, P < 0001). The compliance for collecting stool samples was 89.5%. Patients with T3 and T4 tumors had significantly higher values than those with T1 and T2 cancers (P = 0.022). For all other tumor parameters (N, M, G, L, V, Pn) and location

  6. Mortality Prediction after the First Year of Kidney Transplantation: An Observational Study on Two European Cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorent, Marine; Giral, Magali; Pascual, Manuel; Koller, Michael T.; Steiger, Jürg; Trébern-Launay, Katy; Legendre, Christophe; Kreis, Henri; Mourad, Georges; Garrigue, Valérie; Rostaing, Lionel; Kamar, Nassim; Kessler, Michèle; Ladrière, Marc; Morelon, Emmanuel; Buron, Fanny; Golshayan, Dela; Foucher, Yohann

    2016-01-01

    After the first year post transplantation, prognostic mortality scores in kidney transplant recipients can be useful for personalizing medical management. We developed a new prognostic score based on 5 parameters and computable at 1-year post transplantation. The outcome was the time between the first anniversary of the transplantation and the patient’s death with a functioning graft. Afterwards, we appraised the prognostic capacities of this score by estimating time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves from two prospective and multicentric European cohorts: the DIVAT (Données Informatisées et VAlidées en Transplantation) cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2000 and 2012 in 6 French centers; and the STCS (Swiss Transplant Cohort Study) cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2008 and 2012 in 6 Swiss centers. We also compared the results with those of two existing scoring systems: one from Spain (Hernandez et al.) and one from the United States (the Recipient Risk Score, RRS, Baskin-Bey et al.). From the DIVAT validation cohort and for a prognostic time at 10 years, the new prognostic score (AUC = 0.78, 95%CI = [0.69, 0.85]) seemed to present significantly higher prognostic capacities than the scoring system proposed by Hernandez et al. (p = 0.04) and tended to perform better than the initial RRS (p = 0.10). By using the Swiss cohort, the RRS and the the new prognostic score had comparable prognostic capacities at 4 years (AUC = 0.77 and 0.76 respectively, p = 0.31). In addition to the current available scores related to the risk to return in dialysis, we recommend to further study the use of the score we propose or the RRS for a more efficient personalized follow-up of kidney transplant recipients. PMID:27152510

  7. Prognostic value of tissue Doppler imaging for predicting ventricular arrhythmias and cardiovascular mortality in ischaemic cardiomyopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Olsen, Flemming Javier; Storm, Katrine;

    2016-01-01

    .0 vs. 5.7 ± 1.8 cm/s, P = 0.020). Global a' remained an independent predictor of VT/VF/CVD after multivariable adjustment for age, gender, β-blocker therapy, and deceleration time (HR = 1.25 [1.02, 1.54], P = 0.032). Regional analysis revealed that a depressed a' in the inferior wall drives the......AIMS: Only 30% of patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention receive appropriately therapy. We sought to investigate the value of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) to predict ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), and cardiovascular...

  8. Can chronic gastritis cause an increase in fecal calprotectin concentrations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, Massimo; Gallo, Antonella; Ianiro, Gianluca; Santoro, Luca; D’Onofrio, Ferruccio; Ricci, Riccardo; Cammarota, Giovanni; Covino, Marcello; Vastola, Monica; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Gasbarrini, Giovanni

    2010-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate fecal calprotectin concentrations (FCCs) in subjects with chronic gastritis and the correlation between FCCs and gastritis activity score. METHODS: FCCs were measured in 61 patients with histological diagnosis of gastritis and in 74 healthy volunteers. Histological grading of gastritis was performed according to the updated Sydney gastritis classification. Patients were subdivided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of an active gastritis. Patients with chronic active gastritis were divided into 3 subgroups on the basis of the activity score (mild, moderate, marked). FFCs in relation to Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use were also evaluated. RESULTS: FCCs in patients with chronic active gastritis were not significantly different to FCCs either in subjects with non active gastritis or in healthy controls. Among patients with chronic active gastritis (even marked), FCCs did not significantly differ according to activity score. No significant differences in FCCs were found when considering H. pylori, as well as when considering PPI chronic use. CONCLUSION: FCCs were not significantly increased in subjects with chronic gastritis, even in those patients with a marked neutrophil infiltration. PMID:20632443

  9. Hepcidin-25 in diabetic chronic kidney disease is predictive for mortality and progression to end stage renal disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wagner

    Full Text Available Anemia is common and is associated with impaired clinical outcomes in diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD. It may be explained by reduced erythropoietin (EPO synthesis, but recent data suggest that EPO-resistance and diminished iron availability due to inflammation contribute significantly. In this cohort study, we evaluated the impact of hepcidin-25--the key hormone of iron-metabolism--on clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with CKD along with endogenous EPO levels.249 diabetic patients with CKD of any stage, excluding end-stage renal disease (ESRD, were enrolled (2003-2005, if they were not on EPO-stimulating agent and iron therapy. Hepcidin-25 levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The association of hepcidin-25 at baseline with clinical variables was investigated using linear regression models. All-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of CKD progression (ESRD or doubling of serum creatinine were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models.Patients (age 67 yrs, 53% male, GFR 51 ml/min, hemoglobin 131 g/L, EPO 13.5 U/L, hepcidin-25 62.0 ng/ml were followed for a median time of 4.2 yrs. Forty-nine patients died (19.7% and forty (16.1% patients reached the composite endpoint. Elevated hepcidin levels were independently associated with higher ferritin-levels, lower EPO-levels and impaired kidney function (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was related to mortality, along with its interaction with EPO, older age, greater proteinuria and elevated CRP (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was also predictive for progression of CKD, aside from baseline GFR, proteinuria, low albumin- and hemoglobin-levels and a history of CVD (all p<0.05.We found hepcidin-25 to be associated with EPO and impaired kidney function in diabetic CKD. Elevated hepcidin-25 and EPO-levels were independent predictors of mortality, while hepcidin-25 was also predictive for progression of CKD. Both hepcidin-25 and EPO may represent important prognostic factors of clinical outcome and have the

  10. The ratio of CRP to prealbumin levels predict mortality in patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Chuanming

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Animal and human studies suggest that inflammation and malnutrition are common in acute kidney injury (AKI patients. However, only a few studies reported CRP, a marker of inflammation, albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol, markers of nutritional status were associated with the prognosis of AKI patients. No study examined whether the combination of inflammatory and nutritional markers could predict the mortality of AKI patients. Methods 155 patients with hospital-acquired AKI were recruited to this prospective cohort study according to RIFLE (Risk, Injury, Failure, Lost or End Stage Kidney criteria. C-reactive protein (CRP, and the nutritional markers (albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol measured at nephrology consultation were analyzed in relation to all cause mortality of these patients. In addition, CRP and prealbumin were also measured in healthy controls (n = 45, maintenance hemodialysis (n = 70 and peritoneal dialysis patients (n = 50 and then compared with AKI patients. Results Compared with healthy controls and end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis, patients with AKI had significantly higher levels of CRP/prealbumin (p 28 days. Similarly, the combined factors including the ratio of CRP to albumin (CRP/albumin, CRP/prealbumin and CRP/cholesterol were also significantly higher in the former group (p p = 0.027 while the others (CRP, albumin, prealbumin, cholesterol, CRP/albumin and CRP/cholesterol became non-significantly associated. The hazard ratio was 1.00 (reference, 1.85, 2.25 and 3.89 for CRP/prealbumin increasing according to quartiles (p = 0.01 for the trend. Conclusions Inflammation and malnutrition were common in patients with AKI. Higher level of the ratio of CRP to prealbumin was associated with mortality of AKI patients independent of the severity of illness and it may be a valuable addition to SOFA score to independent of the severity of illness and it may be a

  11. Predicting the mortality from asbestos-related diseases based on the amount of asbestos used and the effects of slate buildings in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-Young; Kim, Young-Chan; Kim, Yongku; Hong, Won-Hwa

    2016-01-15

    Asbestos has been used since ancient times, owing to its heat-resistant, rot-proof, and insulating qualities, and its usage rapidly increased after the industrial revolution. In Korea, all slates were previously manufactured in a mixture of about 90% cement and 10% chrysotile (white asbestos). This study used a Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model after creating databases of the mortality from asbestos-related diseases and of the amount of asbestos used in Korea as a means to predict the future mortality of asbestos-related diseases and mesothelioma in Korea. Moreover, to predict the future mortality according to the effects of slate buildings, a comparative analysis based on the result of the GPR model was conducted after creating databases of the amount of asbestos used in Korea and of the amount of asbestos used in making slates. We predicted the mortality from asbestos-related diseases by year, from 2014 to 2036, according to the amount of asbestos used. As a result, it was predicted that a total of 1942 people (maximum, 3476) will die by 2036. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis according to the influence index, it was predicted that a maximum of 555 people will die from asbestos-related diseases by 2031 as a result of the effects of asbestos-containing slate buildings, and the mortality was predicted to peak in 2021, with 53 cases. Although mesothelioma and pulmonary asbestosis were considered as asbestos-related diseases, these are not the only two diseases caused by asbestos. However the results of this study are highly important and relevant, as, for the first time in Korea, the future mortality from asbestos-related diseases was predicted. These findings are expected to contribute greatly to the Korean government's policies related to the compensation for asbestos victims. PMID:26513124

  12. Addition of 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels to the Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index improves 90-day mortality prediction in critically ill patients

    OpenAIRE

    Mahato, Bisundev; Otero, Tiffany M. N.; Holland, Carrie A.; Giguere, Patrick T.; Bajwa, Ednan K; Camargo, Carlos A.; Quraishi, Sadeq A

    2016-01-01

    Background The Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index (DCCI) has low predictive value in the intensive care unit (ICU). Our goal was to determine whether addition of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels to the DCCI improved 90-day mortality prediction in critically ill patients. Methods Plasma 25OHD levels, DCCI, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were assessed within 24 h of admission in 310 ICU patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves of the prediction...

  13. Waist circumference as compared with body-mass index in predicting mortality from specific causes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F Leitzmann

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Whether waist circumference provides clinically meaningful information not delivered by body-mass index regarding prediction of cause-specific death is uncertain. METHODS: We prospectively examined waist circumference (WC and body-mass index (BMI in relation to cause-specific death in 225,712 U.S. women and men. Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI. Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.1. RESULTS: During follow-up from 1996 through 2005, we documented 20,977 deaths. Increased WC consistently predicted risk of death due to any cause as well as major causes of death, including deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular diseases, independent of BMI, age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status, and alcohol intake. When WC and BMI were mutually adjusted in a model, WC was related to 1.37 fold increased risk of death from any cancer and 1.82 fold increase risk of death from cardiovascular disease, comparing the highest versus lowest WC categories. Importantly, WC, but not BMI showed statistically significant positive associations with deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease. Participants in the highest versus lowest WC category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 1.77 (95% CI, 1.41 to 2.23 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 2.77 (95% CI, 1.95 to 3.95. In contrast, subjects in the highest versus lowest BMI category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.17 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 1.18 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.56. CONCLUSIONS: Increased abdominal fat measured by WC was related to a higher risk of deaths from major specific causes, including deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease, independent of BMI.

  14. Dissecting Lewis score under the light of fecal calprotectin; an analysis of correlation of score components with calprotectin levels in capsule endoscopy

    OpenAIRE

    Koulaouzidis, Anastasios; Nemeth, Artur; Johansson, Gabriele Wurm; Toth, Ervin

    2015-01-01

    Background Lewis Score (LS) is an inflammatory score in small-bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE). Fecal calprotectin (FC) is considered the non-invasive, ‘gold standard’ marker of gastrointestinal (GI) inflammation. Recently, we reported that LS shows only a moderate correlation with FC. In this study, we aim to evaluate which LS parameters have greater correlation with FC. Methods A retrospective, two-center study; 74 patients who underwent SBCE within 7 (median 1.5) days from a FC measurement. ...

  15. Pretransplant pulmonary function tests predict risk of mortality following fractionated total body irradiation and allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell transplant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To determine the value of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) done before peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) in predicting mortality after total body irradiation (TBI) performed with or without dose reduction to the lung. Methods and Materials: From 1997 to 2004, 146 consecutive patients with hematologic malignancies received fractionated TBI before PBSCT. With regimen A (n = 85), patients were treated without lung dose reduction to 13.6 gray (Gy). In regimen B (n = 35), total body dose was decreased to 12 Gy (1.5 Gy twice per day for 4 days) and lung dose was limited to 9 Gy by use of lung shielding. In regimen C (n = 26), lung dose was reduced to 6 Gy. All patients received PFTs before treatment, 90 days after treatment, and annually. Results: Median follow-up was 44 months (range, 12-90 months). Sixty-one patients had combined ventilation/diffusion capacity deficits defined as both a forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and a diffusion capacity of carbon dioxide (DLCO) <100% predicted. In this group, there was a 20% improvement in one-year overall survival with lung dose reduction (70 vs. 50%, log-rank test p = 0.042). Conclusion: Among those with combined ventilation/diffusion capacity deficits, lung dose reduction during TBI significantly improved survival

  16. Fecal calprotectin is equally sensitive in Crohn's disease affecting the small bowel and colon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Michael Dam; Kjeldsen, Jens; Nathan, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The utility of fecal calprotectin (fCal) in small bowel Crohn's disease (CD) remains to be clarified. The primary aim of this study was to determine levels of fCal in CD restricted to the small bowel compared with CD affecting the colon, in patients undergoing their first diagnostic work-up. In...

  17. Limitations of fecal calprotectin at diagnosis in untreated pediatric Crohn's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaoul, Ron; Sladek, Marlgozata; Turner, Dan;

    2012-01-01

    Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a validated screening test for intestinal inflammation in Crohn's disease (CD). The objective of the study was to prospectively evaluate the limitations of FC for identifying CD in newly diagnosed untreated pediatric patients and to assess the association of FC levels...... with disease location and serum inflammatory markers....

  18. Faecal calprotectin for screening of patients with suspected inflammatory bowel disease : diagnostic meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rheenen, Patrick F; Van de Vijver, Els; Fidler, Vaclav

    2010-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether including a test for faecal calprotectin, a sensitive marker of intestinal inflammation, in the investigation of suspected inflammatory bowel disease reduces the number of unnecessary endoscopic procedures. Design Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. Data sourc

  19. Predicting Prostate Cancer Mortality Among Men With Intermediate to High-Risk Disease and Multiple Unfavorable Risk Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To determine whether the number of unfavorable risk factors could be used to predict the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) among men with intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We studied 1,063 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (n = 559), external beam radiotherapy (n = 288), or radiotherapy plus androgen suppression therapy (n = 116) for prostate cancer between 1965 and 2002. Fine and Gray's regression analysis was used to determine whether an increasing number of unfavorable risk factors (prostate-specific antigen level >10 ng/mL, Gleason score of ≥7, clinical Stage T2b or greater, or pretreatment prostate-specific antigen velocity >2.0 ng/mL/y) was associated with the interval to PCSM and all-cause mortality. Results: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. Compared with those with one risk factor, the adjusted hazard ratio for PCSM was 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.8; p = 0.03) for two risk factors, 5.4 (95% confidence interval 2.7-10.7; p < 0.0001) for three risk factors, and 13.6 (95% confidence interval 6.3-29.2; p < 0.0001) for all four risk factors. The 5-year cumulative incidence of PCSM was 2.4% for one factor, 2.4% for two factors, 7.0% for three factors, and 14.7% for all four factors. Prostate cancer deaths as a proportion of all deaths was 19% for one factor, 33% for two factors, 53% for three factors, and 80% for four factors. Conclusion: The number of unfavorable risk factors was significantly associated with PCSM. Prostate cancer was the major cause of death in men with at least three risk factors. Therefore, these men should be considered for clinical trials designed to assess whether survival is prolonged with the addition of novel agents to current standards of practice

  20. FECAL CALPROTECTIN: levels for the ethiological diagnosis in Brazilian patients with gastrointestinal symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorete Maria da Silva KOTZE

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Determination of fecal calprotectin can provide an important guidance for the physician, also in primary care, in the differential diagnosis of gastrointestinal disorders, meanly between inflammatory bowel diseases and irritable bowel syndrome. Objectives The aims of the present study were to prospectively investigate, in Brazilian adults with gastrointestinal complaints, the value of fecal calprotectin as a biomarker for the differential diagnosis between functional and organic disorders and to correlate the concentrations with the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. Methods The study included consecutive patients who had gastrointestinal complaints in which the measurement levels of fecal calprotectin were recommended. Fecal calprotectin was measured using a Bühlmann (Basel, Switzerland ELISA kit Results A total of 279 patients were included in the study, with median age of 39 years (range, 18 to 78 years. After clinical and laboratorial evaluation and considering the final diagnosis, patients were allocated into the following groups: a Irritable Bowel Syndrome: 154 patients (102 female and 52 male subjects. b Inflammatory Bowel Diseases group: 112 patients; 73 with Crohn’s disease; 38 female and 35 male patients; 52.1% (38/73 presented active disease, and 47.9% (35/73 had disease in remission and 39 patients with ulcerative colitis;19 female and 20 male patients; 48.7% (19/39 classified with active disease and 49.3% (20/39 with disease in remission. A significant difference (P<0.001 was observed between the median value of fecal calprotectin in Irritable Bowel Syndrome group that was 50.5 µg/g (IQR=16 - 294 µg/g; 405 µg/g (IQR=29 - 1980 µg/g in Crohn’s disease patients and 457 µg/g (IQR=25 - 1430 µg/g in ulcerative colitis patients. No difference was observed between the values found in the patients with Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. Levels of fecal calprotectin were significantly lower in patients with

  1. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  2. Predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm incidence and mortality due to secondary neutrons in a girl and boy receiving proton craniospinal irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) incidence and mortality from secondary neutrons for a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy who received proton craniospinal irradiation (CSI). SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons were predicted from equivalent doses to radiosensitive organs for cranial, spinal and intracranial boost fields. Therapeutic proton absorbed dose and equivalent dose from neutrons were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Risks of SMN incidence and mortality in most organs and tissues were predicted by applying risks models from the National Research Council of the National Academies to the equivalent dose from neutrons; for non-melanoma skin cancer, risk models from the International Commission on Radiological Protection were applied. The lifetime absolute risks of SMN incidence due to neutrons were 14.8% and 8.5%, for the girl and boy, respectively. The risks of a fatal SMN were 5.3% and 3.4% for the girl and boy, respectively. The girl had a greater risk for any SMN except colon and liver cancers, indicating that the girl's higher risks were not attributable solely to greater susceptibility to breast cancer. Lung cancer predominated the risk of SMN mortality for both patients. This study suggests that the risks of SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons may be greater for girls than for boys treated with proton CSI.

  3. The Role of Fecal Calprotectin in Investigating Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Ünal

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Fecal calprotectin (FCP can be found in high concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease due to the increase in leucocyte turnover in intestinal wall or increase of migration of neutrophils into the lumen. In this study, we aimed to determine the FCP values of the ulcerative colitis (UC patients at the time of diagnosis and to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of this non-invasive method in the diagnosis of the disease, routinely.Materials and Methods: A total of 19 patients with UC (10 females, 9 males, age: 11.5±3.5 years old whoose stool samples collected during the diagnosis period and 20 healthy controls (10 female, 10 male, age: 10.3±4.5 years old were included in the study. Stool samples were collected for FCP analysis by ELISA method at the time of diagnosis and before the treatment period.Results: FCP values of the UC group were statistically higher than the control group. FCP values of the UC and control groups were 398.4 µg/gr stool (56.7-2450 and 19.4 µg/gr stool (2-81, respectively (p0.05. High CRP values (89.4%, elevation of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (84.2%, leukocytosis (73.6%, thrombocytosis (68.4%, anemia (89.4%, and hypoalbuminemia (52.6% were found.Conclusions: FCP values of the UC patients were found to be statistically higher than the control group, and increase in FCP values has been observed with increasing disease activity. Therefore, we believe that the determination of FCP could be useful at the time of diagnosis and during follow-up of the patients with UC. (Journal of Current Pediatrics 2012; 10: 80-4

  4. Can Fecal Calprotectin Level Be Used as a Markers of Inflammation in the Diagnosis and Follow-Up of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy?

    OpenAIRE

    Beşer, Ömer F.; Sancak, Selim; Erkan, Tülay; Kutlu, Tufan; Çokuğraş, Haluk; Çokuğraş, Fügen Ç.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Calprotectin is a cytosolic protein with immunomodulatory, antimicrobial, and antiproliferative actions. The concentration of calprotectin increases in infection, inflammation, and malignancy. We determined if calprotectin can be used as a marker for the diagnosis and follow-up of bowel inflammation in cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Methods In total, 32 patients newly diagnosed with CMPA were included (24 IgE-mediated, 8 non-IgE-mediated). In all subjects, a complete blood count, ...

  5. Cerebrospinal fluid cytokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Joseph N; Meintjes, Graeme; Bicanic, Tihana; Buffa, Viviana; Hogan, Louise; Mo, Stephanie; Tomlinson, Gillian; Kropf, Pascale; Noursadeghi, Mahdad; Harrison, Thomas S

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the host immune response during cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is of critical importance for the development of immunomodulatory therapies. We profiled the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) immune-response in ninety patients with HIV-associated CM, and examined associations between immune phenotype and clinical outcome. CSF cytokine, chemokine, and macrophage activation marker concentrations were assayed at disease presentation, and associations between these parameters and microbiological and clinical outcomes were examined using principal component analysis (PCA). PCA demonstrated a co-correlated CSF cytokine and chemokine response consisting primarily of Th1, Th2, and Th17-type cytokines. The presence of this CSF cytokine response was associated with evidence of increased macrophage activation, more rapid clearance of Cryptococci from CSF, and survival at 2 weeks. The key components of this protective immune-response were interleukin (IL)-6 and interferon-γ, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-17 levels also made a modest positive contribution to the PC1 score. A second component of co-correlated chemokines was identified by PCA, consisting primarily of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α). High CSF chemokine concentrations were associated with low peripheral CD4 cell counts and CSF lymphocyte counts and were predictive of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). In conclusion CSF cytokine and chemokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and IRIS in HIV-associated CM. We speculate that the presence of even minimal Cryptococcus-specific Th1-type CD4+ T-cell responses lead to increased recruitment of circulating lymphocytes and monocytes into the central nervous system (CNS), more effective activation of CNS macrophages and microglial cells, and faster organism clearance; while high CNS chemokine levels may predispose to over recruitment or inappropriate recruitment of immune cells to the CNS and IRIS

  6. Cerebrospinal fluid cytokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph N Jarvis

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the host immune response during cryptococcal meningitis (CM is of critical importance for the development of immunomodulatory therapies. We profiled the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF immune-response in ninety patients with HIV-associated CM, and examined associations between immune phenotype and clinical outcome. CSF cytokine, chemokine, and macrophage activation marker concentrations were assayed at disease presentation, and associations between these parameters and microbiological and clinical outcomes were examined using principal component analysis (PCA. PCA demonstrated a co-correlated CSF cytokine and chemokine response consisting primarily of Th1, Th2, and Th17-type cytokines. The presence of this CSF cytokine response was associated with evidence of increased macrophage activation, more rapid clearance of Cryptococci from CSF, and survival at 2 weeks. The key components of this protective immune-response were interleukin (IL-6 and interferon-γ, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-17 levels also made a modest positive contribution to the PC1 score. A second component of co-correlated chemokines was identified by PCA, consisting primarily of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1 and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α. High CSF chemokine concentrations were associated with low peripheral CD4 cell counts and CSF lymphocyte counts and were predictive of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS. In conclusion CSF cytokine and chemokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and IRIS in HIV-associated CM. We speculate that the presence of even minimal Cryptococcus-specific Th1-type CD4+ T-cell responses lead to increased recruitment of circulating lymphocytes and monocytes into the central nervous system (CNS, more effective activation of CNS macrophages and microglial cells, and faster organism clearance; while high CNS chemokine levels may predispose to over recruitment or inappropriate recruitment of immune cells to the CNS and

  7. Fecal calprotectin levels are higher in rural than in urban Chinese infants and negatively associated with growth

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Jin-Rong; Sheng Xiao-Yang; Hu Yan-Qi; Yu Xiao-Gang; Westcott Jamie E; Miller Leland V; Krebs Nancy F; Hambidge K

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Fecal calprotectin (FC) is an established simple biomarker of gut inflammation. To examine a possible relationship between linear growth and gut inflammation, we compared fecal calprotectin levels in 6 month old infants from poor rural vs affluent urban families. Methods The project was a cross-sectional comparison of FC from rural and urban populations in China. The relationship between length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) and FC concentrations were also compared. Single fecal sa...

  8. The length of unemployment predicts mortality, differently in men and women, and by cause of death: a six year mortality follow-up of the Swedish 1992-1996 recession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcy, Anthony M; Vågerö, Denny

    2012-06-01

    This study examines the relationship between the total amount of accumulated unemployment during the deep Swedish recession of 1992-1996 and mortality in the following 6 years. Nearly 3.4 million Swedish men and women, born between 1931 and 1965 who were gainfully employed at the time of the 1990 census were included. Almost 23% of these individuals were unemployed at some point during the recession. We conduct a prospective cohort study utilizing Cox proportional hazard regression with a mortality follow-up from January 1997 to December 2002. We adjust for health status (1982-1991), baseline (1991) social, family, and employer characteristics of individuals before the recession. The findings suggest that long-term unemployment is related to elevated all-cause mortality for men and women. The excess mortality effects were small for women and attributable to a positive, linear increase in the hazard of alcohol disease-related mortality and external causes-of-death not classified as suicides or transport accidents. For men, the excess hazard of all-cause mortality was best represented by a cubic, non-linear shape. The predicted hazard increases rapidly with the shortest and longest accumulated levels of unemployment. However, the underlying pattern differed by cause-of-death. The cancer, circulatory, and alcohol disease-related analyses suggest that mortality peaks with mid-levels of accumulated unemployment and then declines with longer duration unemployment. For men, we observed a positive, linear increase in the hazard ratios associated with transport and suicide mortality, and a very steep non-linear increase in the excess hazard ratio associated with other external causes of death that were not classified as suicide or transport accidents. In conclusion, mortality risk increases with the duration of unemployment among men and women. This was best described by a cubic function for men and a linear function for women. Behind this pattern, different causes

  9. Inflammatory bowel disease activity assessed by fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin: correlation with laboratory parameters, clinical, endoscopic and histological indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Background Research has shown that fecal biomarkers are useful to assess the activity of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The aim of the study is: to evaluate the efficacy of the fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin as indicators of inflammatory activity. Findings A total of 78 patients presenting inflammatory bowel disease were evaluated. Blood tests, the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Mayo Disease Activity Index (MDAI), and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS) were used for the clinical and endoscopic evaluation. Two tests were performed on the fecal samples, to check the levels of calprotectin and lactoferrin. The performance of these fecal markers for detection of inflammation with reference to endoscopic and histological inflammatory activity was assessed and calculated sensitivity, specificity, accuracy. A total of 52 patient's samples whose histological evaluations showed inflammation, 49 were lactoferrin-positive, and 40 were calprotectin-positive (p = 0.000). Lactoferrin and calprotectin findings correlated with C-reactive protein in both the CD and UC groups (p = 0.006; p = 0.000), with CDAI values (p = 0.043; 0.010), CDEIS values in DC cases (p = 0,000; 0.000), and with MDAI values in UC cases (p = 0.000). Conclusion Fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin are highly sensitive and specific markers for detecting intestinal inflammation. Levels of fecal calprotectin have a proportional correlation to the degree of inflammation of the intestinal mucosa. PMID:19874614

  10. Inflammatory bowel disease activity assessed by fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin: correlation with laboratory parameters, clinical, endoscopic and histological indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossini Lucio

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research has shown that fecal biomarkers are useful to assess the activity of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD. The aim of the study is: to evaluate the efficacy of the fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin as indicators of inflammatory activity. Findings A total of 78 patients presenting inflammatory bowel disease were evaluated. Blood tests, the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI, Mayo Disease Activity Index (MDAI, and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS were used for the clinical and endoscopic evaluation. Two tests were performed on the fecal samples, to check the levels of calprotectin and lactoferrin. The performance of these fecal markers for detection of inflammation with reference to endoscopic and histological inflammatory activity was assessed and calculated sensitivity, specificity, accuracy. A total of 52 patient's samples whose histological evaluations showed inflammation, 49 were lactoferrin-positive, and 40 were calprotectin-positive (p = 0.000. Lactoferrin and calprotectin findings correlated with C-reactive protein in both the CD and UC groups (p = 0.006; p = 0.000, with CDAI values (p = 0.043; 0.010, CDEIS values in DC cases (p = 0,000; 0.000, and with MDAI values in UC cases (p = 0.000. Conclusion Fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin are highly sensitive and specific markers for detecting intestinal inflammation. Levels of fecal calprotectin have a proportional correlation to the degree of inflammation of the intestinal mucosa.

  11. Copper in the terrestrial environment: Verification of a laboratory-derived terrestrial biotic ligand model to predict earthworm mortality with toxicity observed in field soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, Marijke; Groot, Arthur de; Vijver, Martina G; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

    2006-01-01

    This study was set up for validation of a regression model to predict mortality in the terrestrial earthworm Aporrectodea caliginosa following exposure to copper. This model was derived from a terrestrial biotic ligand model and incorporates the protective effects of H+ and Na+ on copper toxicity.

  12. Stroke mortality: predictive value of simple laboratory tests and acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation III scoring system: a hospital based study

    OpenAIRE

    Ajeet K. Chaurasia; Manoj K. Mathur; N C Dwivedi; Manjul Mishra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Acute stroke is a heterogeneous condition with respect to prognosis. This study was undertaken with the aim to evaluate the significance of routine simple blood parameters and APACHE (acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation) III scoring system as methods of prediction of 1-month mortality in stroke patients and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of APACHE III scoring system in predicting short term outcome in critically ill patients having stroke. Methods: Patie...

  13. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A;

    2014-01-01

    bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P < 0.05 performed only slightly better, c-statistic = 0.81, but was limited in use by its complexity. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with heart failure, this simple......BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals with...... heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...

  14. Incident Subjective Cognitive Decline Does Not Predict Mortality in the Elderly – Results from the Longitudinal German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia (AgeCoDe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehr, Susanne; Luck, Tobias; Heser, Kathrin; Fuchs, Angela; Ernst, Annette; Wiese, Birgitt; Werle, Jochen; Bickel, Horst; Brettschneider, Christian; Koppara, Alexander; Pentzek, Michael; Lange, Carolin; Prokein, Jana; Weyerer, Siegfried; Mösch, Edelgard; König, Hans-Helmut; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Objective Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might represent the first symptomatic representation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which is associated with increased mortality. Only few studies, however, have analyzed the association of SCD and mortality, and if so, based on prevalent cases. Thus, we investigated incident SCD in memory and mortality. Methods Data were derived from the German AgeCoDe study, a prospective longitudinal study on the epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in primary care patients over 75 years covering an observation period of 7.5 years. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to examine the relationship of SCD and mortality. Further, we estimated survival times by the Kaplan Meier method and case-fatality rates with regard to SCD. Results Among 971 individuals without objective cognitive impairment, 233 (24.0%) incidentally expressed SCD at follow-up I. Incident SCD was not significantly associated with increased mortality in the univariate (HR = 1.0, 95% confidence interval = 0.8–1.3, p = .90) as well as in the multivariate analysis (HR = 0.9, 95% confidence interval = 0.7–1.2, p = .40). The same applied for SCD in relation to concerns. Mean survival time with SCD was 8.0 years (SD = 0.1) after onset. Conclusion Incident SCD in memory in individuals with unimpaired cognitive performance does not predict mortality. The main reason might be that SCD does not ultimately lead into future cognitive decline in any case. However, as prevalence studies suggest, subjectively perceived decline in non-memory cognitive domains might be associated with increased mortality. Future studies may address mortality in such other cognitive domains of SCD in incident cases. PMID:26766555

  15. Elevated Circulating Osteoprotegerin and Renal Dysfunction Predict 15-Year Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Study of Elderly Women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua R Lewis

    Full Text Available Data on the predictive role of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and osteoprotegerin (OPG for cardiovascular (CVD and all-cause mortality risk have been presented by our group and others. We now present data on the interactions between OPG with stage I to III chronic kidney disease (CKD for all-cause and CVD mortality.The setting was a 15-year study of 1,292 women over 70 years of age initially randomized to a 5-year controlled trial of 1.2 g of calcium daily. Serum OPG and creatinine levels with complete mortality records obtained from the Western Australian Data Linkage System were available. Interactions were detected between OPG levels and eGFR for both CVD and all-cause mortality (P < 0.05. Compared to participants with eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and low OPG, participants with eGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and elevated OPG had a 61% and 75% increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality respectively (multivariate-adjusted HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.27-2.05; P < 0.001 and HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.22-2.55; P = 0.003. This relationship with mortality was independent of decline in renal function (P<0.05. Specific causes of death in individuals with elevated OPG and stage III CKD highlighted an excess of coronary heart disease, renal failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths (P < 0.05.The association between elevated OPG levels with CVD and all-cause mortality was more evident in elderly women with poorer renal function. Assessment of OPG in the context of renal function may be important in studies investigating its relationship with all-cause and CVD mortality.

  16. Effect of Hangeshashinto on calprotectin expression in human oral epithelial cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiroshima, Yuka; Bando, Mika; Inagaki, Yuji; Kido, Reiko; Kataoka, Masatoshi; Nagata, Toshihiko; Kido, Jun-Ichi

    2016-05-01

    Oral epithelial cells produce antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) to prevent microbial infection. Calprotectin (S100A8/S100A9) is one of these AMPs in oral epithelial cells, the expression of which is up-regulated by interleukin-1α (IL-1α). Hangeshashinto (HST) is a traditional Japanese herbal medicine that has anti-inflammatory effects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of HST on the expression of calprotectin through the regulation of IL-1α in oral epithelial cells. Human oral epithelial cells (TR146) were cultured with HST in the presence or absence of anti-IL-1α antibody or IL-1 receptor antagonist, or with six major components of HST (3,4-dihydroxybenzaldehyde, baicalin, ginsenoside Rb1, glycyrrhizin, oleanolic acid and berberine). The expression of S100A8, S100A9, other AMPs and cytokine mRNAs was examined by RT-PCR and quantitative real-time PCR. Calprotectin expression and IL-1α secretion were investigated by ELISA. HST (6 μg/ml) increased the expression of S100A8/S100A9 mRNAs and calprotectin protein, and also up-regulated β-defensin 2 (DEFB4) and S100A7 expression. The expression of IL-1α mRNA and its protein was slightly but significantly increased by HST. A neutralizing antibody against IL-1α and IL-1 receptor antagonist inhibited HST-up-regulated S100A8/S100A9 mRNA expression. Although 3,4-dihydroxybenzaldehyde, baicalin and ginsenoside Rb1 as HST components increased S100A8/S100A9 expression, oleanolic acid and berberine decreased their expression. These results suggest that HST increases the expression of calprotectin, DEFB4 and S100A7 in oral epithelial cells. In response to HST, up-regulation of calprotectin expression may be partially induced via IL-1α. PMID:25649126

  17. Elevated Circulating Osteoprotegerin and Renal Dysfunction Predict 15-Year Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Study of Elderly Women

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, Joshua R.; Lim, Wai H.; Ueland, Thor; Wong, Germaine; Zhu, Kun; Lim, Ee M.; Bollerslev, Jens; Prince, Richard L

    2015-01-01

    Background Data on the predictive role of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and osteoprotegerin (OPG) for cardiovascular (CVD) and all-cause mortality risk have been presented by our group and others. We now present data on the interactions between OPG with stage I to III chronic kidney disease (CKD) for all-cause and CVD mortality. Methods and Results The setting was a 15-year study of 1,292 women over 70 years of age initially randomized to a 5-year controlled trial of 1.2 g of ca...

  18. USEFULNESS OF MELD SCORE IN PREDICTING IN - HOSPITAL MORTALITY IN PAT I ENTS WITH END STAGE LIVER DISEASE: AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

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    Keshava

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND/AIMS: Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD score was previously used for predicting the outcome in patients undergoing elective Trans - jugular Intrahepatic Porto - systemic Shunts (TIPS and in patients undergoing liver transplantation. Now - a - days MELD score has been shown to be of much use in predicting outcome in end stage liver disease. Although many studies have done on MELD score for prediction of 3 months and 6 months mortality in end stage liver disease , studies on MELD score for predicting in - hospital mortality is very sparse. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To study the usefulness of MELD score for predict ing in - hospital mortality in patients with end stage liver disease. METHODS: It is an observational study involving 50 patients with end stage liver disease admitted to our hospital during the period of October 2012 to September 2014 who are fitting into t he inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Out of 50 cirrhosis patients , 20 (40% died within the hospital due to cirrhosis related complications. For analysis , study population was divided into discharge group and death group. Mean hospital stay was found to be 5.8 days in death group and 9.6 days in discharge group. Incidence of Hepatic encephalopathy and Hepatorenal syndrome was significantly higher (p value - 0.038 in death group (70% and 30% resp. compared to discharge group (40% and 23.3% resp.. The mean MELD s core was higher in death group (28.5 compared to discharge group (22.03. Based on distribution of MELD score in the study population we calculated the best cut - off point using Youden index ( S ensitivity+specicity – 1 to predict in - hospital mortality. The best cut - off value came to be 22. At cut off value more than 22 , MELD score had 80% sensitivity with good predictive power. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that MELD score is good predictor of in - hospital mortality in patients with end stage liver disease and best cut off value for MELD score is 22 , above

  19. Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013

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    Alessandra Cassana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and aim: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru. Methods: This was a longitudinal, retrospective, analytical validation study, with data from patients with a clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated at the Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins between June 2012 and December 2013. We calculated the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality with a 95% confidence interval. Results: A total of 339 records were analyzed. 57.5% were male and the mean age (standard deviation was 67.0 (15.7 years. The median of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System obtained in the population was 12. The ROC analysis for death gave an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.5-0.7. Stratifying by type of upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulted in an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.53-0.78 for non-variceal type. Conclusions: In this population, the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System has no diagnostic validity for predicting mortality.

  20. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) -based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as "serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl," "age above 79 years," "without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker," "without taking beta-blocker," "without taking loop diuretics," "with mechanical ventilator support," "with non-invasive ventilator support," "with vasopressors use," and "experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation" were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients. PMID:27411951

  1. Effect of heart rate correction on pre- and post-exercise heart rate variability to predict risk of mortality – an experimental study on the FINCAVAS cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paruthi ePradhapan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The non-linear inverse relationship between RR-intervals and heart rate (HR contributes significantly to the heart rate variability (HRV parameters and their performance in mortality prediction. To determine the level of influence HR exerts over HRV parameters’ prognostic power, we studied the predictive performance for different HR levels by applying eight correction procedures, multiplying or dividing HRV parameters by the mean RR-interval (RRavg to the power 0.5-16. Data collected from 1288 patients in The Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS, who satisfied the inclusion criteria, was used for the analyses. HRV parameters (RMSSD, VLF Power and LF Power were calculated from 2-minute segment in the rest phase before exercise and 2-minute recovery period immediately after peak exercise. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC was used to determine the predictive performance for each parameter with and without HR corrections in rest and recovery phases. The division of HRV parameters by segment’s RRavg to the power 2 (HRVDIV-2 showed the highest predictive performance under the rest phase (RMSSD: 0.67/0.66; VLF Power: 0.70/0.62; LF Power: 0.79/0.65; cardiac mortality/non-cardiac mortality with minimum correlation to HR (r = -0.15 to 0.15. In the recovery phase, Kaplan-Meier (KM survival analysis revealed good risk stratification capacity at HRVDIV-2 in both groups (cardiac and non-cardiac mortality. Although higher powers of correction (HRVDIV-4 and HRVDIV-8 improved predictive performance during recovery, they induced an increased positive correlation to HR. Thus, we inferred that predictive capacity of HRV during rest and recovery is augmented when its dependence on HR is weakened by applying appropriate correction procedures.

  2. Serum procalcitonin level and SOFA score at discharge from the intensive care unit predict post-intensive care unit mortality: a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Matsumura

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: The final decision for discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU is uncertain because it is made according to various patient parameters; however, it should be made on an objective evaluation. Previous reports have been inconsistent and unreliable in predicting post-ICU mortality. To identify predictive factors associated with post-ICU mortality, we analyzed physiological and laboratory data at ICU discharge. METHODS: Patients admitted to our ICU between September 2012 and August 2013 and staying for critical care>2 days were included. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA score; systemic inflammatory response syndrome score; white blood cell count; and serum C reactive protein, procalcitonin (PCT, interleukin-6 (IL-6, lactate, albumin, and hemoglobin levels were recorded. The primary end point was 90-day mortality after ICU discharge. Two hundred eighteen patients were enrolled (195 survivors, 23 non-survivors. RESULTS: Non-survivors presented a higher SOFA score and serum PCT, and IL-6 levels, as well as lower serum albumin and hemoglobin levels. Serum PCT, albumin, and SOFA score were associated with 90-day mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed chi-square value of 6.96, and P value of 0.54. The area under the curve (95% confidence interval was 0.830 (0.771-0.890 for PCT, 0.688 (0.566-0.810 for albumin, 0.861 (0.796-0.927 for SOFA score, and increased to 0.913 (0.858-0.969 when these were combined. Serum PCT level at 0.57 ng/mL, serum albumin at 2.5 g/dL and SOFA score at 5.5 predict 90-day mortality, and high PCT, low albumin and high SOFA groups had significantly higher mortality. Serum PCT and SOFA score were significantly associated with survival days after ICU discharge in Cox regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Serum PCT level and SOFA score at ICU discharge predict post-ICU mortality and survival days after ICU discharge. The combination of these two and albumin level might enable

  3. The effect of discounting, different mortality reduction schemes and predictive cohort life tables on risk acceptability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technical facilities should be optimal with respect to benefits and cost. Optimization of technical facilities involving risks for human life and limb require an acceptability criterion and suitable discount rates both for the public and the operator depending on for whom the optimization is carried out. The life quality index is presented and embedded into modem socio-economic concepts. A general risk acceptability criterion is derived. The societal life saving cost to be used in optimization as life saving or compensation cost and the societal willingness-to-pay based on the societal value of a statistical life or on the societal life quality index are developed. Different mortality reduction schemes are studied. Also, predictive cohort life tables are derived and applied. Discount rates γ must be long-term averages in view of the time horizon of some 20 to more than 100 years for the facilities of interest and net of inflation and taxes. While the operator may use long-term averages from the financial market for his cost-benefit analysis the assessment of interest rates for investments of the public into risk reduction is more difficult. The classical Ramsey model decomposes the real interest rate (=output growth rate) into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is proposed to use a relatively small interest rate of 3% implying a rate of time preference of consumption of about 1%. This appears intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Risk-consequence curves are derived for an example

  4. Use of the interRAI CHESS scale to predict mortality among persons with neurological conditions in three care settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P Hirdes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Persons with certain neurological conditions have higher mortality rates than the population without neurological conditions, but the risk factors for increased mortality within diagnostic groups are less well understood. The interRAI CHESS scale has been shown to be a strong predictor of mortality in the overall population of persons receiving health care in community and institutional settings. This study examines the performance of CHESS as a predictor of mortality among persons with 11 different neurological conditions. METHODS: Survival analyses were done with interRAI assessments linked to mortality data among persons in home care (n = 359,940, complex continuing care hospitals/units (n = 88,721, and nursing homes (n = 185,309 in seven Canadian provinces/territories. RESULTS: CHESS was a significant predictor of mortality in all 3 care settings for the 11 neurological diagnostic groups considered after adjusting for age and sex. The distribution of CHESS scores varied between diagnostic groups and within diagnostic groups in different care settings. CONCLUSIONS: CHESS is a valid predictor of mortality in neurological populations in community and institutional care. It may prove useful for several clinical, administrative, policy-development, evaluation and research purposes. Because it is routinely gathered as part of normal clinical practice in jurisdictions (like Canada that have implemented interRAI assessment instruments, CHESS can be derived without additional need for data collection.

  5. High mortality risk among individuals assumed to be TB-negative can be predicted using a simple test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian;

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine mortality among assumed TB negative (aTBneg) individuals in Guinea-Bissau and to investigate whether plasma levels of soluble urokinase receptor (suPAR) can be used to determine post-consultation mortality risk. METHODS: This prospective West-African cohort study included......PAR levels <15 ng/ml and mortality. In the log-linear range, a 1 ng/ml increase was associated with a 46% increase in the mortality rate: MRR = 1.46 (95% CI 1.34-1.59). The area under the ROC curves was 0.88 for HIV-positive individuals and 0.79 for HIV-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a...... high mortality rate among aTBneg individuals and demonstrated that suPAR measurements can provide prognostic information on mortality among individuals without disease diagnosis. Measuring suPAR is a technically simple method for determining mortality risk in individuals that are assumed to be TB-negative....

  6. Sympathoadrenal Activation and Endothelial Damage Are Inter Correlated and Predict Increased Mortality in Patients Resuscitated after Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    I. Johansson, Pär; Bro-Jeppesen, John; Kjaergaard, Jesper;

    2015-01-01

    at a single site ICU. Blood was sampled a median 135 min (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) 103-169) after OHCA. Plasma catecholamines (adrenaline, noradrenaline) and serum endothelial biomarkers (syndecan-1, thrombomodulin, sE-selectin, sVE-cadherin) were measured at admission (immediately after...... randomization). We had access to data on demography, medical history, characteristics of the OHCA, patients and 180-day outcome. RESULTS: Adrenaline and noradrenaline correlated positively with syndecan-1 and thrombomodulin i.e., biomarkers reflecting endothelial damage (both p<0.05). Overall 180-day mortality...... was 35%. By Cox analyses, plasma adrenaline, serum sE-selectin, reflecting endothelial cell activation, and thrombomodulin levels predicted mortality. However, thrombomodulin was the only biomarker independently associated with mortality after adjusting for gender, age, rhythm (shockable vs. non...

  7. Mortality Factors in Geriatric Blunt Trauma Patients: Creation of a Highly Predictive Statistical Model for Mortality Using 50,765 Consecutive Elderly Trauma Admissions from the National Sample Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    HRANJEC, TJASA; SAWYER, ROBERT G.; YOUNG, JEFFREY S.; SWENSON, BRIAN R.; CALLAND, JAMES F.

    2013-01-01

    Elderly patients are at high risk for mortality after injury. We hypothesized that trauma benchmarking efforts would benefit from development of a geriatric-specific model for risk-adjusted analyses of trauma center outcomes. A total of 57,973 records of elderly patients (age older than 65 years), which met our selection criteria, were submitted to the National Trauma Database and included within the National Sample Project between 2003 and 2006. These cases were used to construct a multivariable logistic regression model, which was compared with the American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma’s Trauma Quality Improvement Project’s (TQIP) existing model. Additional spline regression analyses were performed to further objectively quantify the physiologic differences between geriatric patients and their younger counterparts. The geriatric-specific and TQIP mortality models shared several covariates: age, Injury Severity Score, motor component of the Glasgow Coma Scale, and systolic blood pressure. Our model additionally used temperature and the presence of mechanical ventilation. Our geriatric-specific regression mode generated a superior c-statistic as compared with the TQIP approximation (0.85 vs 0.77; P = 0.048). Spline analyses demonstrated that elderly patients appear to be less likely to tolerate relative hypotension with higher observed mortality at initial systolic blood pressures of 90 to 130 mmHg. Although the TQIP model includes a single age component, these data suggest that each variable needs to be adjusted for age to more accurately predict mortality in the elderly. Clearly, a separate geriatric model for predicting outcomes is not only warranted, but necessary. PMID:23265126

  8. BISAP SCORE: A SIMPLE TOOL TO ASSESS THE SEVERITY AND PREDICT THE MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN ACUTE PANCREATITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hariprasad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available NEED FOR STUDY The present study is to use a simple bedside tool as a scoring system to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis and to predict its risks for morbidity and mortality. The main criteria of this study is to highlight the ease of using this tool to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis as early as possible in order to reduce the complications, risks and to improve the outcome and overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS Our study is a single centre, prospective observational study conducted at Rajarajeshwari Medical College Hospital, Bangalore, India from September 2014 to September 2015. Forty six patients, both males and females presenting within 24 hours of onset of symptoms diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Informed consents were obtained from all patients. Cases of chronic pancreatitis and acute on chronic pancreatitis were excluded. Pediatric patients of age less than 14 years and geriatric patients more than 70 years were excluded. RESULTS We observed that biliary pancreatitis was the most common with male population more affected than females. Pain abdomen was the most common presentation in the entire study population. Necrotizing pancreatitis was most commonly associated with ICU admission and prolonged hospital stay. Patients with organ failure and BISAP score more than 3 were found to have prolonged hospital stay. SIRS was the most common component of BISAP scoring system seen in 91.3%. Elderly patients with age more than 60 years (6 pts. had high BISAP score (5. All patients with shock had BISAP score of >3. A BISAP score of ≥3 was associated with higher morbidity than scores of <3. CONCLUSION BISAP is a simple and a quick tool over other scoring systems and is similar to other scoring systems to predict the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. In summary we have studied the ease of BISAP scoring system and its advantage in early recognition of acute pancreatitis, thus taking

  9. Glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria predict mortality independently from coronary artery calcified plaque in the Diabetes Heart Study

    OpenAIRE

    Cox, Amanda J.; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Carr, J. Jeffrey; Freedman, Barry I.; Bowden, Donald W.

    2013-01-01

    Background Risk stratification in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains an important priority in the management of associated morbidity and mortality, including from cardiovascular disease (CVD). The current investigation examined whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) were independent predictors of CVD-mortality in European Americans (EAs) with T2D after accounting for subclinical CVD. Methods The family-based Diabetes Heart Stu...

  10. Ankle-brachial blood pressure index predicts cardiovascular events and mortality in Japanese patients with chronic kidney disease not on dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshitomi, Ryota; Nakayama, Masaru; Ura, Yoriko; Kuma, Kazuyoshi; Nishimoto, Hitomi; Fukui, Akiko; Ikeda, Hirofumi; Tsuchihashi, Takuya; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Kitazono, Takanari

    2014-12-01

    The ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABPI) has been recognized to have a predictive value for cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in general or dialysis populations. However, the associations between ABPI and those outcomes have not been fully investigated in predialysis patients. The present study aimed to clarify the relationships between ABPI and both CV events and mortality in Japanese chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients not on dialysis. In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 320 patients with CKD stages 3-5 who were not on dialysis. At baseline, ABPI was examined and a low ABPI was defined as ABPI were risk factors for CV events. It was demonstrated that age, a history of cerebrovascular disease and low ABPI were determined as independent risk factors for CV mortality. In addition, age, body mass index and low ABPI were independently associated with all-cause mortality. In patients with CKD, low ABPI during the predialysis period is independently associated with poor survival and CV events, suggesting the usefulness of measuring ABPI for predicting CV events and patient survival in CKD. PMID:25056682

  11. Correlation between gut pathogens and fecal calprotectin levels in young children with acute diarrhea

    OpenAIRE

    Yanever Angela Lam; Sarah M Warouw; Audrey M. I. Wahani; Jeanette I.C. Manoppo; Praevilia Margareth Salendu

    2014-01-01

    Background In cases of acute diarrhea, it is difficult to distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes. Increased fecal calprotectin (f-CP) level is a marker of neutrophil migration in the intestinal lumen and is associated with intestinal inflammation. Previous studies reported an increase in f-CP levels in children with acute diarrhea, which is caused by bacteria, but only few have studied the relationship between intestinal pathogens with f-CP levels in acute diarrhea. Object...

  12. Relevance of fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin in the post-operative management of inflammatory bowel diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Caccaro, Roberta; Angriman, Imerio; D’Incà, Renata

    2016-01-01

    The role of fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin has been extensively studied in many areas of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients’ management. The post-operative setting in both Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has been less investigated although few promising results come from small, cross-sectional studies. Therefore, the current post-operative management still requires endoscopy 6-12 mo after intestinal resection for CD in order to exclude endoscopic recurrenc...

  13. Challenges in diagnostic accuracy studies in primary care: The fecal calprotectin example

    OpenAIRE

    Holtman, Gea A; Leeuwen, Yvonne van; Kollen, Boudewijn; Escher, Johanna; Kindermann, A.; van Rheenen, Patrick F.; Berger, Marjolein

    2013-01-01

    textabstractAbstract. Background: Low disease prevalence and lack of uniform reference standards in primary care induce methodological challenges for investigating the diagnostic accuracy of a test. We present a study design that copes with these methodological challenges and discuss the methodological implications of our choices, using a quality assessment tool for diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2). Design. The study investigates the diagnostic value of fecal calprotectin for detecting ...

  14. Fecal calprotectin level correlated with both endoscopic severity and disease extent in ulcerative colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Kawashima, Kousaku; Ishihara, Shunji; Yuki, Takafumi; Fukuba, Nobuhiko; Oshima, Naoki; Kazumori, Hideaki; Sonoyama, Hiroki; Yamashita, Noritsugu; Tada, Yasumasa; Kusunoki, Ryusaku; Oka, Akihiko; Mishima, Yoshiyuki; Moriyama, Ichiro; Kinoshita, Yoshikazu

    2016-01-01

    Background The relationship between fecal calprotectin (FC) and disease extent in ulcerative colitis (UC) has not been fully elucidated. The aim of this study was to clarify the correlation of FC with disease extent and severity in UC patients. Methods UC patients scheduled to undergo an ileocolonoscopy were enrolled and fecal samples for FC measurement were collected prior to the procedure. A Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES) was determined for each of 5 colonic segments. To evaluate the associ...

  15. Value of fecal calprotectin in the evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort: an observational study

    OpenAIRE

    Manz Michael; Burri Emanuel; Rothen Claude; Tchanguizi Nuschin; Niederberger Christian; Rossi Livio; Beglinger Christoph; Lehmann Frank

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background The evaluation of patients with abdominal discomfort is challenging and patient selection for endoscopy based on symptoms is not reliable. We evaluated the diagnostic value of fecal calprotectin in patients with abdominal discomfort. Methods In an observational study, 575 consecutive patients with abdominal discomfort referred for endoscopy to the Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology at the University Hospital Basel in Switzerland, were enrolled in the study. Calpro...

  16. Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Healthy Children Aged 1-18 Months

    OpenAIRE

    Feng Li; Jingqiu Ma; Shanshan Geng; Junli Wang; Jinrong Liu; Jie Zhang; Xiaoyang Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Objective Fecal calprotectin (FC) is an established biomarker of gut inflammation. The aim of this study was to evaluate FC concentrations in healthy children between 1 and 18 months of age. Methods Healthy children aged 1-18 months were enrolled in this study at the Department of Children's Health Care in Shanghai, China. Children’s stool samples were collected and analyzed, and FC concentration was determined using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The chil...

  17. Fecal calprotectin: a marker for clinical differentiation of microscopic colitis and irritable bowel syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    von Arnim U; Wex T; Ganzert C; Schulz C; Malfertheiner P

    2016-01-01

    Ulrike von Arnim, Thomas Wex, Christine Ganzert, Christian Schulz, Peter Malfertheiner Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, Otto-von-Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany Background: The aim of this study is to compare two methods for measuring fecal calprotectin (FC) concentration and to evaluate the possibility of differentiation between microscopic colitis (MC) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Methods: Twenty-three patients with MC (six patient...

  18. FECAL CALPROTECTIN AND GASTROINTESTINAL (GI) PERMEABILITY CORRELATE WITH DISEASE ACTIVITY INDEX, AND HISTOLOGIC, ENDOSCOPIC, AND RADIOLOGIC FINDINGS IN CHILDREN WITH CROHN DISEASE (CD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fecal calprotectin and permeability are noninvasive measures of GI inflammation and damage, respectively. However, there are scant data as to the possible association between the tests and CD disease activity in children. We hypothesized that levels of fecal calprotectin and permeability would corre...

  19. Serial Fecal Calprotectin and Lactoferrin Measurements for Early Diagnosis of Pouchitis After Proctocolectomy for Ulcerative Colitis: Is Pouchoscopy No Longer Needed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoepfer, Alain; Reinisch, Walter

    2015-06-01

    This editorial discusses the role of serial measurements of fecal calprotectin or fecal lactoferrin for the early detection of pouchitis in patients with ulcerative colitis having undergone procto-colectomy with ileo-pouch-anal anastomosis. Furthermore, the role of fecal calprotectin and fecal lactoferrin for the monitoring of pouchitis is highlighted. PMID:26052770

  20. Mesalamine Dose Escalation Reduces Fecal Calprotectin In Patients With Quiescent Ulcerative Colitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osterman, Mark T.; Aberra, Faten N; Cross, Raymond; Liakos, Steven; McCabe, Robert; Shafran, Ira; Wolf, Douglas; Hardi, Robert; Nessel, Lisa; Brensinger, Colleen; Gilroy, Erin; Lewis, James D.

    2014-01-01

    Background & Aims Among patients with quiescent ulcerative colitis (UC), lower fecal concentrations of calprotectin are associated with lower rates of relapse. We performed an open-label, randomized, controlled trial to investigate whether increasing doses mesalamine reduce concentrations of fecal calprotectin (FC) in patients with quiescent UC. Methods We screened 119 patients with UC in remission, based on Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index scores, FC >50 mcg/g, and intake of no more than 3g/day of mesalamine. Participants taking mesalamine formulations other than multimatrix mesalamine were switched to multimatrix mesalamine (2.4 g/day) for 6 weeks; 52 participants were then randomly assigned (1:1) to a group that continued its current dose of mesalamine (controls, n=26) or a group that increased its dose by 2.4 g/day for 6 weeks (n=26). The primary outcome was continued remission with FC200 mcg/g compared to those with FC <200 mcg/g (P=.01). Conclusion Among patients with quiescent UC and increased levels of FC, increasing the dose of mesalamine by 2.4 g/day reduced fecal concentrations of calprotectin to those associated with lower rates of relapse. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00652145 PMID:24793028

  1. Rapid fecal calprotectin testing to assess for endoscopic disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease: A diagnostic cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukasz Kwapisz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: With increasing numbers of patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, it is important to identify noninvasive methods of detecting disease activity. The aim of this study is to examine the diagnostic accuracy of fecal rapid calprotectin (FC testing in the detection of endoscopically active IBD. Patients and Methods: All consecutive patients presenting to outpatient clinics with lower gastrointestinal symptoms were prospectively recruited. Patients provided FC samples. Sensitivity (Sn, specificity (Sp, positive predictive value (PPV, and negative predictive value (NPV for FC were calculated. Receiver–operator characteristics (ROC curve was used to identify the ideal FC cutoff that predicts endoscopic disease activity. Correlation between FC and endoscopic disease activity, disease location, and C-reactive protein (CRP levels were measured. Results: One hundred and twenty-six patients, of whom 52% were females, were included in the final analysis with a mean age of 44.4 ± 16.7 years. Comparing FC to endoscopic findings, the following results were calculated: A cutoff point of 100 μg/g showed Sn = 83%, Sp = 67%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 85%; and 200 μg/g showed Sn = 66%, Sp = 82%, PPV = 73%, and NPV = 77%. Based on ROC curve, the best FC cutoff point to predict endoscopic disease activity was 140 μg/g. Using this reference, FC levels strongly correlated with colorectal, ileocolonic, and ileal disease and predicted endoscopic activity. Conclusions: FC is an accurate test when used as an initial screening tool for patients suspected of having active IBD. Given its noninvasive nature, it may prove to reduce the need for colonoscopy and be an added tool in the management of IBD.

  2. Serum adiponectin predicts all-cause mortality and end stage renal disease in patients with type I diabetes and diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorsal, A.; Tarnow, L.; Frystyk, J.;

    2008-01-01

    Adiponectin levels are increased in patients with type I diabetes especially in the presence of microangiopathy. Here we determined the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels and 8 adiponectin gene polymorphisms for mortality, cardiovascular events and end-stage renal disease in type I......, age and duration of diabetes. Cox regression analysis of 373 patients showed a covariate-adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.46 for a change of one standard deviation in log10 of serum adiponectin. There was no association with cardiovascular events; however, serum adiponectin levels...... predicted end stage renal disease in a covariate-adjusted analysis. Two of eight gene polymorphisms, found in the 878 patients, were associated with increased serum adiponectin levels but none of the polymorphisms were associated with a renal or cardiovascular outcome. These studies show that high serum...

  3. Copper in the terrestrial environment: Verification of a laboratory-derived terrestrial biotic ligand model to predict earthworm mortality with toxicity observed in field soils

    OpenAIRE

    Koster, Marijke; Groot, Arthur; Vijver, Martina G.; Willie J. G. M. Peijnenburg

    2006-01-01

    This study was set up for validation of a regression model to predict mortality in the terrestrial earthworm Aporrectodea caliginosa following exposure to copper. This model was derived from a terrestrial biotic ligand model and incorporates the protective effects of H+ and Na+ on copper toxicity. Three soil sets were used for the experiments, all of which had a different copper contamination history over more than 20 years and were considered to be aged field soils. The soils were characteri...

  4. The P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality of neurosurgical patients undergoing craniotomy: Further validation of usefulness and application across healthcare systems

    OpenAIRE

    Mercer, S. J.; Arpan Guha; V J Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims: Continuous audit of clinical practice is an essential part of making improvements in medicine and enhancing patient care. Validated tools are needed to gather evidence for comparisons. Recently, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scores were evaluated in Indian patients undergoing elective craniotomy and it was concluded that P-POSSUM was highly accurate in predicting overall ...

  5. An evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring in predicting post-operative mortality in a level 1 critical care setting

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, Sarah; Lund, Jonathan N; Gold, Stuart; Elliott, Richard; Vater, Mair; Chakrabarty, Mallicka P; Heinink, Thomas P; Williams, John P

    2014-01-01

    Background POSSUM and P-POSSUM are used in the assessment of outcomes in surgical patients. Neither scoring systems’ accuracy has been established where a level 1 critical care facility (level 1 care ward) is available for perioperative care. We compared POSSUM and P-POSSUM predicted with observed mortality on a level 1 care ward. Methods A prospective, observational study was performed between May 2000 and June 2008. POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores were calculated for all postoperative patients w...

  6. The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), Based on a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, Predicts Short- and Long-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Older Patients with Dementia

    OpenAIRE

    Pilotto, Alberto; Sancarlo, Daniele; Panza, Francesco; Paris, Francesco; D’Onofrio, Grazia; Cascavilla, Leandro; Addante, Filomena; Seripa, Davide; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Dallapiccola, Bruno; Franceschi, Marilisa; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2009-01-01

    Aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) for predicting mortality risk in older patients with dementia. The present was a retrospective study with a year of follow-up that included 262 patients aged 65 years and older with a diagnosis of dementia. A standardized CGA that included information on clinical, cognitive, functional, and nutritional aspects, as well as comorbidity, medications, a...

  7. Predictive Validity of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations in Predicting All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Specific Mortality in a National Prospective Cohort Study of Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Addoh, Ovuokerie

    2016-06-01

    The predictive validity of the Pooled Cohort risk (PCR) equations for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific and all-cause mortality among a national sample of US adults has yet to be evaluated, which was this study's purpose. Data from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed up through December 31, 2011, to ascertain mortality status via the National Death Index probabilistic algorithm. The analyzed sample included 11,171 CVD-free adults (40-79 years of age). The 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was determined from the PCR equations. For the entire sample encompassing 849,202 person-months, we found an incidence rate of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.07) all-cause deaths per 1000 person-months and an incidence rate of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.12-0.17) CVD-specific deaths per 1000 person-months. The unweighted median follow-up duration was 72 months. For nearly all analyses (unadjusted and adjusted models with ASCVD expressed as a continuous variable as well as dichotomized at 7.5% and 20%), the ASCVD risk score was significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality (P<.05). In the adjusted model, the increased all-cause mortality risk ranged from 47% to 77% based on an ASCVD risk of 20% or higher and 7.5% or higher, respectively. Those with an ASCVD score of 7.5% or higher had a 3-fold increased risk of CVD-specific mortality. The 10-year predicted risk of a first ASCVD event via the PCR equations was associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality among those free of CVD at baseline. In this American adult sample, the PCR equations provide evidence of predictive validity. PMID:27180122

  8. Echocardiographic findings predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality in left-sided native valve Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine K.; Park, Lawrence; Tong, Steven Y C;

    2015-01-01

    -year survival rates were significantly lower for patients with S aureus IE overall (57% S aureus IE versus 80% non-S aureus IE; Phazard ratio, 2.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-5.40; P....001) and left ventricular ejection fraction ratio, 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-6.04; P=0.004) were the only independent echocardiographic predictors of in-hospital mortality in S aureus LNVIE. Valve perforation (hazard ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-3.68; P=0.006) and intracardiac...... abscess (hazard ratio, 2.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-3.78; P=0.004) were the only independent predictors of 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: S aureus is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in subjects with LNVIE. In S aureus LNVIE, intracardiac abscess and left ventricular ejection fraction...

  9. A low bioimpedance phase angle predicts a higher mortality and lower nutritional status in chronic dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumler Md, Francis

    2010-04-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an established technique for body composition analysis. The phase angle parameter, an index of body cell mass, tissue hydration, and membrane integrity, makes it suitable for assessing nutritional status and survivability. We evaluated the significance of a low phase angle value on nutritional status and mortality in 285 chronic dialysis patients during a longitudinal prospective observational study. Patients in the lower phase angle tertile had decreased body weight, body mass index, fat free mass, body cell mass, and lower serum albumin concentrations than those in the higher tertile (P<001). In addition, mortality rates were significantly lower (P=0.05) in the highest tertile patients. In conclusion, the phase angle is a useful method for identifying dialysis patients at high risk for malnutrition and increased mortality.

  10. High aortic augmentation index predicts mortality and cardiovascular events in men from a general population, but not in women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janner, Julie Hjortsø; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Ladelund, Steen;

    2012-01-01

    Background: A recent meta-analysis concluded that augmentation index (AIx), a measure of pulse wave reflections influencing the central blood pressure, is related to mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and is likely to be clinically useful. However, prospective data based on non high......-risk populations and women are lacking.Methods and results: In a random sample comprising 1300 men and 1773 women from Copenhagen, Denmark, AIx was measured non-invasively by use of the SphygmoCor device. The population was followed prospectively for a mean of 6.5 years for all-cause mortality and a combined CVD...

  11. The expressions of calprotectin in inflammatory diseases and its clinical significance%钙卫蛋白在炎性疾病中的表达及临床意义

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王旭; 黄立锋

    2015-01-01

    Inflammatory disease is common and its diagnosis is important.Calprotectin,a calcium-zinc binding protein secreted by neutrophils,is closely related to the inflammatory response.With the development of medicine,detecting calprotectin,as a newly developing test method,has been more and more valued in recent years.There have been many studies about the applications of calprotaction in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),hepatopathy,autoimmune disease and other inflammatory diseases.These studies have shown that calprotectin is associated with the severity of these diseases,and it can be used to predict the prognosis and relapse of these diseases.%炎性疾病作为临床常见病种,关于其诊断和治疗已成为医学研究中的一项重要任务.钙卫蛋白是一种由中性粒细胞所分泌,与炎症反应紧密相关的钙锌结合蛋白.随着近年来医学的发展,钙卫蛋白作为一种新的检测手段越来越受到重视.国内外已有较多有关钙卫蛋白与炎症性肠病、肝病、自身免疫病等炎性疾病关系的报道.研究表明,钙卫蛋白与上述疾病的严重程度明显相关,并可用来预测此类疾病的预后及复发情况.

  12. External Validation of the Simple Clinical Score and the HOTEL Score, Two Scores for Predicting Short-Term Mortality after Admission to an Acute Medical Unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

    2014-01-01

    the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. METHODS: Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. SETTING......], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.......931 (95% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. CONCLUSION: We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision....

  13. A comparison of the 12-year mortality and predictive factors of coronary heart disease among Japanese men in Japan and Hawaii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mortality and predictive factors of coronary heart disease (CHD) among men of Japanese ancestry in Japan and Hawaii were compared on the basis of 12 - year follow-up data using comparable methods of case ascertainment and risk factor measurements. Among 1,687 men (Japan) and 7,536 men (Hawaii) who were free of CHD and aged 45 - 69 at baseline examination, 20 (Japan) and 123 (Hawaii) cases of fatal CHD were identified. The age-adjusted mortality rate was 40 % higher in Hawaii than in Japan. The difference was not statistically significant, but consistent with earlier studies. More than half of this difference in mortality rate was attributed to different levels of known risk factors in the two cohorts. In multivariate analysis using the combined population, age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, serum glucose, cigarette smoking, and alcohol intake (inversely) remained as significant predictors of CHD mortality. Although the associations of risk factors with CHD tended to be stronger in Hawaii than in Japan, there was no statistically significant difference in regression coefficient for any of the risk factors studied. These findings cannot be claimed definitive because of the small number of cases, especially in Japan. (author)

  14. The plasma level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteraemia and predicts mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittenhagen, P; Kronborg, G; Weis, N;

    2004-01-01

    (n = 117; p < 0.001). No correlation was found between suPAR levels and C-reactive protein. In univariate logistic regression analysis, hypotension, renal failure, cerebral symptoms and high serum concentrations of protein YKL-40 and suPAR were associated significantly with mortality (p < 0.05). In...

  15. Comparison of the predictive performance of eGFR formulae for mortality and graft failure in renal transplant recipients.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    He, Xiang

    2009-02-15

    To date, efforts have focused on assessing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) formulae against measured GFR. However, a more appropriate clinical gold standard is one conveying a defined clinical disadvantage. In renal transplantation, these measures are mortality and graft failure.

  16. The additional value of patient-reported health status in predicting 1-year mortality after invasive coronary procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzen, Mattie J; Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Pedersen, Susanne S.; Boersma, Eric; Maier, Willibald; Widimsky, Petr; Simoons, Maarten L; Mercado, Nestor F; Wijns, William

    2007-01-01

    Self-perceived health status may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. The Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization (EHS-CR) provided an opportunity to explore whether impaired health status was a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with coronary arter...

  17. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  18. Do first impressions count? Frailty judged by initial clinical impression predicts medium-term mortality in vascular surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B R; Batterham, A M; Hollingsworth, A C; Durrand, J W; Danjoux, G R

    2016-06-01

    Recognising frailty during pre-operative assessment is important. Frail patients experience higher mortality rates and are less likely to return to baseline functional status following the physiological insult of surgery. We evaluated the association between an initial clinical impression of frailty and all-cause mortality in 392 patients attending our vascular pre-operative assessment clinic. Prevalence of frailty assessed by the initial clinical impression was 30.6% (95% CI 26.0-35.2%). There were 133 deaths in 392 patients over a median follow-up period of 4 years. Using Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, revised cardiac risk index and surgery (yes/no), the hazard ratio for mortality for frail vs. not-frail was 2.14 (95% CI 1.51-3.05). The time to 20% mortality was 16 months in the frail group and 33 months in the not-frail group. The initial clinical impression is a useful screening tool to identify frail patients in pre-operative assessment. PMID:27018374

  19. Maximum bite force at age 70 years predicts all-cause mortality during the following 13 years in Japanese men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, M; Yoshihara, A; Sato, N; Sato, M; Taylor, G W; Ansai, T; Ono, T; Miyazaki, H

    2016-08-01

    There is limited information on the impact of oral function on mortality among older adults. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to examine whether an objective measure of oral function, maximum bite force (MBF), is associated with mortality in older adults during a 13-year follow-up period. Five hundred and fifty-nine community-dwelling Japanese (282 men and 277 women) aged 70 years at baseline were included in the study. Medical and dental examinations and a questionnaire survey were conducted at baseline. Maximum bite force was measured using an electronic recording device (Occlusal Force-Meter GM10). Follow-up investigation to ascertain vital status was conducted 13 years after baseline examinations. Survival rates among MBF tertiles were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by sex. There were a total of 111 deaths (82 events for men and 29 for women). Univariable analysis revealed that male participants in the lower MBF tertile had increased risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1·94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1·13-3·34] compared with those in the upper MBF tertile. This association remained significant after adjustment for confounders (adjusted HR = 1·84, 95% CI = 1·07-3·19). Conversely, no association between MBF and all-cause mortality was observed in female participants. Maximum bite force was independently associated with all-cause mortality in older Japanese male adults. These data provide additional evidence for the association between oral function and geriatric health. PMID:27084614

  20. Mean platelet volume to platelet count ratio predicts in-hospital complications and long-term mortality in type A acute aortic dissection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong-Ze; Chen, Qing-Jie; Sun, Hui-Ping; Zeng, Rui; Zeng, Zhi; Gao, Xiao-Ming; Ma, Yi-Tong; Yang, Yi-Ning

    2016-09-01

    Type A acute aortic dissection is a life-threatening vascular emergency because of its high morbidity and mortality. Platelet is a pivotal ingredient involved in the development of acute aortic dissection. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether mean platelet volume (MPV)/platelet count ratio predicts in-hospital complications and long-term mortality in type A acute aortic dissection. In this single-center and prospective cohort study, 106 consecutive patients with Stanford type A acute aortic dissection admitted to the hospital within 12 h after onset were recruited. The best cut-off value of MPV/platelet count ratio predicting all-cause mortality was determined by the receiver operator characteristic analysis. Patients were divided into high (H-MPV/platelet count) and low (L-MPV/platelet count) groups based on the cut-off value of 7.49 (10 fl/10/l). Patients were followed up for 3.5 years. Of the 106 acute aortic dissection patients, 71 (67.0%) died during the study period, with a median follow-up duration of 570 days. Compared to the L-MPV/platelet count group, patients with H-MPV/platelet count had a higher risk of in-hospital complications including hypotension, hypoxemia, myocardial ischemia/infarction, conscious disturbance, pericardial tamponade, paraplegia, and poor survival (all P acute aortic dissection. PMID:26575495

  1. Endoluminal calprotectin measurement in assessment of pouchitis and a new index of disease activity: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Pronio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pouchitis is the most common complication following proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis for ulcerative colitis (UC. To provide a standardized definition of pouchitis clinical, endoscopic and histological markers were grouped and weighted in the pouch disease activity index (PDAI. However, the delay in the assessment of the final score due to the time requested for histological analysis remains the main obstacle to the index implementation in clinical practice so that the use of modified-PDAI (mPDAI with exclusion of histologic subscore has been proposed. We tested the ability of calprotectin measurement in the pouch endoluminal content to mimic the histologic score as defined in the PDAI, the index that we adopted as gold standard for pouchitis diagnosis. Calprotectin was measured by ELISA in the pouch endoluminal content collected during endoscopy in 40 consecutive patients with J-pouch. In each patient PDAI and mPDAI were calculated and 15% of patients were erroneously classified by mPDAI. ROC analysis of calprotectin values vs. acute histological subscore ≥ 3 identified different calprotectin cut-off values with corresponding sensitivity and specificity allowing the definition and scoring of different range of calprotectin subscores. We incorporated the calprotectin score in the mPDAI obtaining a new score that shows the same specificity as PDAI for diagnosis of pouchitis and higher sensitivity when compared with mPDAI. The use of the proposed new score, once validated in a larger series of patients, might be useful in the early management of patients with symptoms of pouchitis.

  2. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob;

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... all traditional and multipole HRV parameters, reduced Dyx was the most powerful predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 2.4; CI 1.5 to 3.8; P < 0.001). After adjustment for known risk markers, such as age, diabetes, ejection fraction, previous MI and hypertension, Dyx remained an independent predictor of...... nonlinear HRV measure Dyx is a promising independent predictor of mortality in a long-term follow-up study of patients surviving a MI, irrespectively of left ventricular systolic function....

  3. A tool for prediction of risk of rehospitalisation and mortality in the hospitalised elderly: secondary analysis of clinical trial data

    OpenAIRE

    Alassaad, Anna; Melhus, Håkan; Hammarlund-Udenaes, Margareta; Bertilsson, Maria; Gillespie, Ulrika; Sundström, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To construct and internally validate a risk score, the '80+ score', for revisits to hospital and mortality for older patients, incorporating aspects of pharmacotherapy. Our secondary aim was to compare the discriminatory ability of the score with that of three validated tools for measuring inappropriate prescribing: Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP), Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START) and Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI). Setting:...

  4. Prediction of 90-day mortality in older patients after discharge from an emergency department: a retrospective follow-up study

    OpenAIRE

    Hofman, Susanna E.; Lucke, Jacinta A.; Heim, Noor; de Gelder, Jelle; Fogteloo, Anne J.; Heringhaus, Christian; de Groot, Bas; Anton J M de Craen; Blauw, Gerard Jan; Mooijaart, Simon P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Older people frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and have a high risk of poor outcome as compared to their younger counterparts. Our aim was to study routinely collected clinical parameters as predictors of 90-day mortality in older patients attending our ED. Methods We conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the Leiden University Medical Center (The Netherlands) among patients aged 70 years or older attending the ED in 2012. Predictors were age, gender, time and w...

  5. Sarcopenia, but not sarcopenic obesity, predicts mortality for older old men: A 3-year prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Li-Kuo Liu, MD; Liang-Yu Chen, MD; Kuo-Ping Yeh, MD; Ming-Hsien Lin, MD; An-Chun Hwang, MD; Li-Ning Peng, MD; Liang-Kung Chen, MD, PhD

    2014-01-01

    Background: The prognostic significance of sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity (SO) among older people remains controversial. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality risk of sarcopenia and SO among men aged 75 years and older in Taiwan. Methods: This prospective cohort study recruited all residents of the Banciao Veterans Home, a veterans retirement community in Taipei City in northern Taiwan. For all study participants, the demographic profile, comorbid medical conditions, ...

  6. Oxidation of calprotectin by hypochlorous acid prevents chelation of essential metal ions and allows bacterial growth: Relevance to infections in cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magon, Nicholas J; Turner, Rufus; Gearry, Richard B; Hampton, Mark B; Sly, Peter D; Kettle, Anthony J

    2015-09-01

    Calprotectin provides nutritional immunity by sequestering manganese and zinc ions. It is abundant in the lungs of patients with cystic fibrosis but fails to prevent their recurrent infections. Calprotectin is a major protein of neutrophils and composed of two monomers, S100A8 and S100A9. We show that the ability of calprotectin to limit growth of Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa is exquisitely sensitive to oxidation by hypochlorous acid. The N-terminal cysteine residue on S100A9 was highly susceptible to oxidation which resulted in cross-linking of the protein monomers. The N-terminal methionine of S100A8 was also readily oxidized by hypochlorous acid, forming both the methionine sulfoxide and the unique product dehydromethionine. Isolated human neutrophils formed these modifications on calprotectin when their myeloperoxidase generated hypochlorous acid. Up to 90% of the N-terminal amine on S100A8 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from young children with cystic fibrosis was oxidized. Oxidized calprotectin was higher in children with cystic fibrosis compared to disease controls, and further elevated in those patients with infections. Our data suggest that oxidative stress associated with inflammation in cystic fibrosis will stop metal sequestration by calprotectin. Consequently, strategies aimed at blocking extracellular myeloperoxidase activity should enable calprotectin to provide nutritional immunity within the airways. PMID:26006104

  7. Increased mortality is predicted of Inachis io larvae caused by Bt-maize pollen in European farmland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels; Lang, Andreas; Lövei, Gabor L;

    2013-01-01

    deposited on various plants growing in the landscape, leading to inadvertent ingestion of toxic pollen with plant biomass consumed by these butterfly larvae. To examine the possible effect of this coincidence, we focused our study on the protected butterfly Inachis io and two regions of Europe. Using...... larvae would coincide, and an increased mortality of the larvae was predicted. This prediction differs from earlier studies which predicted negligible effect of field-grown Bt-maize on I. io larvae. Our model is an improvement over previous efforts since it is based on more detailed, empirical data......, includes more biological detail, and provides explicit estimation of all model parameters. The model is open-source software and is available for re-use and for modelling the effects on other species or regions. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------...

  8. A model to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, M-H; Shi, K-Q; Lin, X-F; Xiao, D-D; Chen, L-L; Liu, W-Y; Fan, Y-C; Chen, Y-P

    2013-04-01

    Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring was initiated using traditional statistical technique by assuming a linear relationship between clinical features, but most phenomena in a clinical situation are not linearly related. The aim of this study was to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on an individual patient level using an artificial neural network (ANN) system. The ANN model was built using data from 402 consecutive patients with ACHBLF. It was trained to predict 3-month mortality by the data of 280 patients and validated by the remaining 122 patients. The area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for ANN and MELD-based scoring systems. The following variables age (P < 0.001), prothrombin activity (P < 0.001), serum sodium (P < 0.001), total bilirubin (P = 0.015), hepatitis B e antigen positivity rate (P < 0.001) and haemoglobin (P < 0.001) were significantly related to the prognosis of ACHBLF and were selected to build the ANN. The ANN performed significantly better than MELD-based scoring systems both in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.869 vs 0.667, 0.591, 0.643, 0.571 and 0.577; P < 0.001, respectively) and in the validation cohort (AUROC = 0.765 vs 0.599, 0.563, 0.601, 0.521 and 0.540; P ≤ 0.006, respectively). Thus, the ANN model was shown to be more accurate in predicting 3-month mortality of ACHBLF than MELD-based scoring systems. PMID:23490369

  9. The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John

    2011-08-01

    ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

  10. Seven-Day Mortality Can Be Predicted in Medical Patients by Blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory Rate, Loss of Independence, and Peripheral Oxygen Saturation (the PARIS Score): A Prospective Cohort Study with External Validation

    OpenAIRE

    Mikkel Brabrand; Annmarie Touborg Lassen; Torben Knudsen; Jesper Hallas

    2015-01-01

    Background Most existing risk stratification systems predicting mortality in emergency departments or admission units are complex in clinical use or have not been validated to a level where use is considered appropriate. We aimed to develop and validate a simple system that predicts seven-day mortality of acutely admitted medical patients using routinely collected variables obtained within the first minutes after arrival. Methods and Findings This observational prospective cohort study used t...

  11. Clinician assessments of health status predict mortality in patients with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, JC; Covinsky, KE; Hayssen, H; Lizaola, B; Dodge, JL; Roberts, JP; Terrault, NA; Feng, S.

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Background & Aims: The US liver allocation system effectively prioritizes most liver transplant candidates by disease severity as assessed by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Yet, one in five dies on the wait-list. We aimed to determine whether clinician assessments of health status could identify this subgroup of patients at higher risk for wait-list mortality. Methods: From 2012-2013, clinicians of all adult liver transplant candidates with l...

  12. Urinary cystatin C is diagnostic of acute kidney injury and sepsis, and predicts mortality in the intensive care unit

    OpenAIRE

    Nejat, Maryam; Pickering, John W; Walker, Robert J.; Westhuyzen, Justin; Shaw, Geoffrey M.; Frampton, Christopher M; Endre, Zoltán H

    2010-01-01

    Introduction To evaluate the utility of urinary cystatin C (uCysC) as a diagnostic marker of acute kidney injury (AKI) and sepsis, and predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This was a two-center, prospective AKI observational study and post hoc sepsis subgroup analysis of 444 general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. uCysC and plasma creatinine were measured at entry to the ICU. AKI was defined as a 50% or 0.3-mg/dL increase in plasma creatinine above baseline. Sepsis w...

  13. Comparison of fecal pyruvate kinase isoform M2 and calprotectin in acute diarrhea in hospitalized children

    OpenAIRE

    Czub, Elzbieta; Jan K. Nowak; Moczko, Jerzy; Lisowska, Aleksandra; Banaszkiewicz, Aleksandra; Banasiewicz, Tomasz; Walkowiak, Jaroslaw

    2014-01-01

    Fecal concentrations of pyruvate kinase isoform M2 (M2-PK) and calprotectin (FC) serve as biomarkers of inflammation of gastrointestinal mucosa. The value of M2-PK in discriminating between patients with viral and bacterial acute diarrhea (AD) is currently unknown. We analyzed M2-PK and FC concentrations in fifty hospitalized children with AD (29 of which were caused by rotavirus and 21 by Salmonella enteritidis) as well as 32 healthy subjects. There was no difference in the areas under the r...

  14. The P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality of neurosurgical patients undergoing craniotomy: Further validation of usefulness and application across healthcare systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S J Mercer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Continuous audit of clinical practice is an essential part of making improvements in medicine and enhancing patient care. Validated tools are needed to gather evidence for comparisons. Recently, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM scores were evaluated in Indian patients undergoing elective craniotomy and it was concluded that P-POSSUM was highly accurate in predicting overall mortality. We wished to study whether this system could be used in a different country and health care system [United Kingdom, UK]. We have evaluated these scores in patients undergoing elective and emergency craniotomies in a tertiary centre in the UK. Methods: Data was collected from all neurosurgical patients who underwent craniotomy overone year. Preoperative variables were collected prior to induction of anaesthesia, and operative variables were also collected. Chi-square test was used for expected and actual mortality differences. Survivor and non-survivor demographics were compared by one-way ANOVA for continuous and Chi-square for categorical variables. Results: One hundred and forty-five patients were studied. Mean [SD] physiologic score of the patients was 18.83 [5.07], and mean [SD] operative score was 18.09 [3.75]. P-POSSUM was a better predictor for elective patients and for those undergoing immediate life-saving surgery. Conclusion: This study confirms and validates the findings of previous work that P-POSSUM is an accurate and reliable tool for estimating in-hospital mortality. It also confirms its usefulness in comparison of results across healthcare systems internationally. Larger scale evaluations may be needed to examine its usefulness in emergency procedures.

  15. Evaluation of the Apache II and the oncologic history, as indicative predictions of mortality in the unit of intensive care of the INC September 1996 -December 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    They are multiple the indexes of severity that have been carried out to value the predict and the quality of a patient's life, especially when this it enters to the unit of intensive care (UIC); however, the oncologic patient presents particularities in their mobility, that it supposes a different behavior in the results of the Indexes. Presently work is compared the Apache scale and the oncologic history like morbid mortality as predictors in the UCI. 207 patients were included that entered the UCI between September of 1996 and December of 1997. It was a mortality of 29%, the stay of most of this group of patient smaller than 24 hours or bigger than 8 days. To the entrance, 50% of the patients presented superior averages at 15 in the Apache Scale and at the 48 hours, alone 30.4% continued with this value. The patients with hematologic neoplasia presented superior average at 15 in 87%, with a mortality of 63.3% with average between 15 and 24 to the entrance, the risk of dying was 9.8 times but that with inferior average. In the hematologic patient, the risk of dying was 5.7 times but regarding the solid tumors. The system but altered it was the breathing one, with an increase in the risk of dying from 2,8 times for each increment utility in the scale. Contrary to described in the literature, the oncologic diagnoses and the neoplasia statistic they didn't influence in the mortality of the patients

  16. Level of Fecal Calprotectin Correlates With Endoscopic and Histologic Inflammation and Identifies Patients With Mucosal Healing in Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theede, Klaus; Holck, Susanne; Ibsen, Per;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), mucosal healing is an important goal of treatment. However, mucosal healing is difficult to determine on the basis of clinical evaluation alone, and endoscopy is uncomfortable and can cause complications. Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a...

  17. Clinicians’ Guide to the Use of Fecal Calprotectin to Identify and Monitor Disease Activity in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Bressler

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Objective monitoring of the severity of inflammation in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD is an essential part of disease management. However, repeat endoscopy to define extent and severity of inflammation is not practical. Fecal calprotectin (FC is a biomarker that can be used as a surrogate test to distinguish inflammatory from noninflammatory gastrointestinal disease.

  18. Utility of fecal calprotectin in differentiating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) from recurrent abdominal pain (RAP) in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: It often is difficult to differentiate IBD from RAP in children. Fecal calprotectin concentration has been proposed as a marker to identify gastrointestinal inflammation and it may be useful in distinguishing organic disease (i.e., IBD) from normals. However, there are scant data regardi...

  19. Predicting cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease in Spain. The rationale and design of NEFRONA: a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roig Jordi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk (reverse epidemiology effect and the presence of emerging risk factors specifically related to kidney failure. Therefore, diagnostic tools capable of improving cardiovascular risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors are currently warranted. We present the protocol of a 4-year prospective study aimed to assess the predictive value of non-invasive imaging techniques and biomarkers for CVD events and mortality in patients with CKD. Methods From November 2009 to October 2010, 4137 asymptomatic adult patients with stages 2 to 5 CKD will be recruited from nephrology services and dialysis units throughout Spain. During the same period, 843 participants without CKD (control group will be recruited from lists of primary care physicians, only at baseline. During the follow-up, CVD events and mortality will be recorded from all CKD patients. Clinical and laboratory characteristics will be collected in a medical documentation sheet. Three trained itinerant teams will carry out a carotid ultrasound to assess intima-media thickness and presence of plaques. A composite atherosclerosis score will be constructed based on carotid ultrasound data and measurement of ankle-brachial index. In CKD patients, presence and type of calcifications will be assessed in the wall of carotid, femoral and brachial arteries, and in cardiac valves, by ultrasound. From all participants, blood samples will be collected and stored in a biobank to study novel biomarkers. Conclusions The NEFRONA study is the first large, prospective study to examine the predictive value of several non-invasive imaging techniques and novel biomarkers in CKD patients throughout Spain. Hereby, we present the

  20. Mutation in APOA1 predicts increased risk of ischaemic heart disease and total mortality without low HDL cholesterol levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haase, C L; Frikke-Schmidt, R; Nordestgaard, B G;

    2011-01-01

    levels. Mutations in apolipoprotein (apo) A-I, the major protein constituent of HDL, might be associated with low HDL cholesterol and predispose to IHD and early death. DESIGN: We resequenced APOA1 in 190 individuals and examined the effect of mutations on HDL cholesterol, risk of IHD, myocardial...... infarction (MI) and mortality in 10 440 individuals in the prospective Copenhagen City Heart Study followed for 31 years. Results were validated in an independent case-control study (n = 16 035). Additionally, we determined plasma ratios of mutant to wildtype (WT) apoA-I in human heterozygotes and functional.......3-4.8), respectively, in heterozygotes compared with noncarriers. Mean reduction in survival time in heterozygotes was 10 years (P < 0.0001). Results for IHD and MI were confirmed in the case-control study. Furthermore, the ratio of mutant S164 to WT A164 apoA-I in plasma of heterozygotes was reduced. In addition, A...

  1. Seven-day mortality can be predicted in medical patients by blood pressure, age, respiratory rate, loss of independence, and peripheral oxygen saturation (the PARIS score: a prospective cohort study with external validation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikkel Brabrand

    Full Text Available Most existing risk stratification systems predicting mortality in emergency departments or admission units are complex in clinical use or have not been validated to a level where use is considered appropriate. We aimed to develop and validate a simple system that predicts seven-day mortality of acutely admitted medical patients using routinely collected variables obtained within the first minutes after arrival.This observational prospective cohort study used three independent cohorts at the medical admission units at a regional teaching hospital and a tertiary university hospital and included all adult (≥ 15 years patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the clinical variables that best predicted the endpoint. From this, we developed a simplified model that can be calculated without specialized tools or loss of predictive ability. The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5% met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0% in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3% in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were associated with the endpoint (full model. Based on this, we developed a simple score (range 0-5, ie, the PARIS score, by dichotomizing the variables. The ability to identify patients at increased risk (discriminatory power and calibration was excellent for all three cohorts using both models. For patients with a PARIS score ≥ 3, sensitivity was 62.5-74.0%, specificity 85.9-91.1%, positive predictive value 11.2-17.5%, and negative predictive value 98.3-99.3%. Patients with a score ≤ 1 had a low mortality (≤ 1%; with 2, intermediate mortality (2-5%; and ≥ 3, high mortality (≥ 10%.Seven-day mortality can be predicted upon admission with high sensitivity and specificity and excellent negative predictive values.

  2. Challenges in diagnostic accuracy studies in primary care: the fecal calprotectin example

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Low disease prevalence and lack of uniform reference standards in primary care induce methodological challenges for investigating the diagnostic accuracy of a test. We present a study design that copes with these methodological challenges and discuss the methodological implications of our choices, using a quality assessment tool for diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2). Design The study investigates the diagnostic value of fecal calprotectin for detecting inflammatory bowel disease in children presenting with chronic gastrointestinal symptoms in primary care. It is a prospective cohort study including two cohorts of children: one cohort will be recruited in primary care and the other in secondary/tertiary care. Test results of fecal calprotectin will be compared to one of the two reference standards for inflammatory bowel disease: endoscopy with histopathological examination of mucosal biopsies or assessment of clinical symptoms at 1-year follow-up. Discussion According to QUADAS-2 the use of two reference standards and the recruitment of patients in two populations may cause differential verification bias and spectrum bias, respectively. The clinical relevance of this potential bias and methods to adjust for this are presented. This study illustrates the importance of awareness of the different kinds of bias that result from choices in the design phase of a diagnostic study in a low prevalence setting. This approach is exemplary for other diagnostic research in primary care. PMID:24274463

  3. Implication of extracellular zinc exclusion by recombinant human calprotectin (MRP8 and MRP14 from target cells in its apoptosis-inducing activity

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    Satoru Yui

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Calprotectin is a calcium-binding and zinc-binding protein complex that is abundant in the cytosol of neutrophils. This factor is composed of 8 and 14 kDa subunits, which have also been termed migration inhibitory factor-related proteins MRP8 and MRP14. We previously reported that rat calprotectin purified from inflammatory neutrophils induces apoptosis of various tumor cells or normal fibroblasts in a zinc-reversible manner.

  4. Faecal calprotectin concentrations in apparently healthy children aged 0-12 years in urban Kampala, Uganda: a community-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grahnquist Lena

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Calprotectin is a calcium and zinc binding protein, abundant in neutrophils and is extremely stable in faeces. Faecal calprotectin is used as a non-specific marker for gastrointestinal inflammation. It has a good diagnostic precision to distinguish between irritable bowel syndrome and inflammatory bowel disease. Studies have established normal concentrations in healthy children; all these studies have been performed in high-income countries. The objective of this study was to determine the concentration of faecal calprotectin in apparently healthy children aged 0-12 years in urban Kampala, Uganda. Method We tested 302 apparently healthy children aged, age 0-12 years (162 female, 140 male in urban Kampala, Uganda. The children were recruited consecutively by door-to-door visits. Faecal calprotectin was analyzed using a quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Faeces were also tested for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori antigen, for growth of enteropathogens and microscopy was performed to assess protozoa and helminths. A short standardized interview with socio-demographic information and medical history was obtained to assess health status of the children. Results In the different age groups the median faecal calprotectin concentrations were 249 mg/kg in 0 H. pylori or having other pathogens in the stool. Conclusion Concentrations of faecal calprotectin among healthy children, living in urban Ugandan, a low-income country, are comparable to those in healthy children living in high-income countries. In children older than 4 years, the faecal calprotectin concentration is low. In healthy infants faecal calprotectin is high. The suggested cut-off concentrations in the literature can be used in apparently healthy Ugandan children. This finding also shows that healthy children living under poor circumstances do not have a constant inflammation in the gut. We see an opportunity to use this relatively inexpensive test for

  5. Human Calprotectin: Effect of Calcium and Zinc on its Secondary and Tertiary Structures, and Role of pH in its Thermal Stability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Reza YOUSEFI; Mehdi IMANI; Susan K ARDESTANI; Ali Akbar SABOURY; Nematollah GHEIBI; Bijan RANJBAR

    2007-01-01

    Calprotectin, a heterodimeric complex belonging to the S100 protein family, has been found predominantly in the cytosolic fraction of neutrophils. In the present study, human calprotectin was purified from neutrophils using two-step ion exchange chromatography. The purified protein was used for circular dichroism study and fluorescence analysis in the presence of calcium and zinc at physiological concentrations,as well as for assessment of its inhibitory activity on the K562 leukemia cell line. The thermal stability of the protein at pH 7.0 (physiological pH) and 8.0 (similar to intestinal pH) was also compared. The results of cell proliferation analysis revealed that human calprotectin initiated growth inhibition of the tumor cells in a dosedependent manner. The intrinsic fluorescence emission spectra of human calprotectin (50 μg/ml) in the presence of calcium and zinc ions show a reduction in fluorescence intensity, reflecting a conformational change within the protein with exposure of aromatic residues to the protein surface that is important for the biological function of calprotectin. The far ultraviolet-circular dichroism spectra of human calprotectin in the presence of calcium and zinc ions at physiological concentrations show a decrease in the α-helical content of the protein and an increase in β- and other structures. Our results also show that increasing the pH level from 7.0 to 8.0 leads to a marked elevation in the thermal stability of human calprotectin, indicating a significant role for pH in the stability of calprotectin in the gut.

  6. Quality of Life Is Related to Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Colonic Crohn Disease and Ulcerative Colitis, but not in Ileal Crohn Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Gauss, Annika; Geib, Thomas; Hinz, Ulf; Schaefert, Rainer; Zwickel, Philipp; Zawierucha, Anna; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Klute, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To formulate therapy goals, we aimed to define the relationship between fecal calprotectin and health-related quality of life in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This retrospective single-center cross-sectional study included ambulatory IBD patients who had completed standardized questionnaires comprising items of health-related quality of life (Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire) and clinical disease activity scores, and who had provided stool samples for calprotectin...

  7. Circulating Endothelial-Derived Activated Microparticle: A Useful Biomarker for Predicting One-Year Mortality in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Chou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study tested the hypothesis that circulating microparticles (MPs are useful biomarkers for predicting one-year mortality in patients with end-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC. Methods and Results. One hundred seven patients were prospectively enrolled into the study between April 2011 and February 2012, and each patient received regular follow-up after enrollment. Levels of four MPs in circulation, (1 platelet-derived activated MPs (PDAc-MPs, (2 platelet-derived apoptotic MPs (PDAp-MPs, (3 endothelial-derived activated MPs (EDAc-MPs, and (4 endothelial-derived apoptotic MPs (EDAp-MPs, were measured just after the patient was enrolled into the study using flow cytometry. Patients who survived for more than one year were categorized into group 1 (n=56 (one-year survivors and patients who survived less than one year were categorized into group 2 (n=51 (one-year nonsurvivors. Male gender, incidence of liver metastasis, progression of disease after first-line treatment, poor performance status, and the Charlson comorbidity index were significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (all P<0.05. Additionally, as measured by flow cytometry, only the circulating level of EDAc-MPs was found to be significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (P=0.006. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that circulating level of EDAc-MPs along with brain metastasis and male gender significantly and independently predictive of one-year mortality (all P<0.035. Conclusion. Circulating EDAc-MPs may be a useful biomarker predictive of one-year morality in ES-NSCLC patients.

  8. The plasma level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteraemia and predicts mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittenhagen, p; Kronborg, Gitte; Nielsen, H; Obel, N; Pedersen, SS; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Weis, Nina Margrethe

    2004-01-01

    This multicentre prospective study was conducted to investigate whether the level of the soluble form of urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is elevated during pneumococcal bacteraemia and is of predictive value in the early stage of the disease. Plasma levels of suPAR were incr...

  9. SEXUAL DEMOGRAPHICS OF RIPARIAN POPULATIONS OF POPULUS DELTOIDES: CAN MORTALITY BE PREDICTED FROM A CHANGE IN REPRODUCTIVE STATUS?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Populus deltoides forests along the Rio Grande river drainage are predicted to disappear within this century. We evaluated stand health over three years by examining the sex ratio, size, and spatial distribution of male, female, and non-reproductive trees in six even-aged stands of Populus deltoide...

  10. SEXUAL DEMOGRAPHICS OF RIPARIN POPULATIONS OF POPULUS DELTOIDES: CAN MORTALITY BE PREDICTED FROM A CHANGE IN REPRODUCTIVE STATUS?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Populus deltoides forests along the Rio Grande river drainage are predicted to disappear within this century. We evaluated stand health over three years by examining the sex ratio, size, and spatial distribution of male, female, and non-reproductive trees in six even-aged stands of Populus deltoide...

  11. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to present the methods and main results from the Danish occupational mortality studies, and to set the Danish studies into the international context of occupational mortality studies. RESEARCH TOPICS: The first Danish occupational mortality study from 1970...

  12. Quality of Life Is Related to Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Colonic Crohn Disease and Ulcerative Colitis, but not in Ileal Crohn Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauss, Annika; Geib, Thomas; Hinz, Ulf; Schaefert, Rainer; Zwickel, Philipp; Zawierucha, Anna; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Klute, Lukas

    2016-04-01

    To formulate therapy goals, we aimed to define the relationship between fecal calprotectin and health-related quality of life in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This retrospective single-center cross-sectional study included ambulatory IBD patients who had completed standardized questionnaires comprising items of health-related quality of life (Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire) and clinical disease activity scores, and who had provided stool samples for calprotectin determination within 30 days of questionnaire completion. Correlation analyses were performed between the indicated parameters. Post hoc analysis was conducted, taking into account only data from patients with fecal calprotectin concentrations measured within 3 days of questionnaire completion. One hundred ninety-seven patients with Crohn disease and 111 patients with ulcerative colitis were enrolled in the study. Lower fecal calprotectin concentrations were associated with better health-related quality of life. The correlations were weak, but stronger if only fecal calprotectin concentrations measured within 3 days of questionnaire completion were included (results for 3 days; Crohn disease: n = 86, rS = -0.419, P care should be taken to keep the time between clinical evaluation of IBD patients and the determination of fecal calprotectin concentrations as short as possible. PMID:27100452

  13. The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

    OpenAIRE

    Scherff F.; Vassalli G.; Sürder D.; Mantovani A; Corbacelli C.; Pasotti E.; Klersy C.; Auricchio A.; Moccetti T.; Pedrazzini G.B.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing pr...

  14. Do the malnutrition universal screening tool (MUST) and Birmingham nutrition risk (BNR) score predict mortality in older hospitalised patients?

    OpenAIRE

    Lee Emma; Moore Nicola; Henderson Sarah; Witham Miles D

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Background Undernutrition is common in older hospitalised patients, and routine screening is advocated. It is unclear whether screening tools such as the Birmingham Nutrition Risk (BNR) score and the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) can successfully predict outcome in this patient group. Methods Consecutive admissions to Medicine for the Elderly assessment wards in Dundee were assessed between mid-October 2003 and mid-January 2004. Body Mass Index (BMI), MUST and BNR scor...

  15. Neural network analysis to predict mortality in end-stage renal disease: application to United States Renal Data System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Adam N; Khuder, Sadik; Malhotra, Nathan; Sodeman, Thomas; Gold, Jeffrey P; Malhotra, Deepak; Shapiro, Joseph I

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether we could develop models based on data provided to the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) to accurately predict survival. Records were obtained from patients beginning dialysis in 1990 through 2007. We developed linear and neural network models and optimized the fit of these models to the actual time to death. Next, we examined whether we could accurately predict survival in a dataset containing censored and uncensored patients. The results with these models were contrasted with those obtained with a Cox proportional hazards model fit to the entire dataset. The average C statistic over a 6-month to 10-year time range achieved with these models was approximately 0.7891 (linear model), 0.7804 (transformed dataset linear model), 0.7769 (neural network model), 0.7774 (transformed dataset neural network model), 0.8019 (Cox model), and 0.7970 (transformed dataset Cox model). When we used the Cox proportional hazards model, superior C statistic results were found at time points between 2 and 10 years but at earlier time points, the Cox model was slightly inferior. These results suggest that data provided to the USRDS can allow for predictive models which have a high degree of accuracy years following the initiation of dialysis. PMID:20516715

  16. Acid sphingomyelinase serum activity predicts mortality in intensive care unit patients after systemic inflammation: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Kott

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Acid sphingomyelinase is involved in lipid signalling pathways and regulation of apoptosis by the generation of ceramide and plays an important role during the host response to infectious stimuli. It thus has the potential to be used as a novel diagnostic marker in the management of critically ill patients. The objective of our study was to evaluate acid sphingomyelinase serum activity (ASM as a diagnostic and prognostic marker in a mixed intensive care unit population before, during, and after systemic inflammation. METHODS: 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit at risk for developing systemic inflammation (defined as systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus a significant procalcitonin [PCT] increase were included. ASM was analysed on ICU admission, before (PCT before, during (PCT peak and after (PCT low onset of SIRS. Patients undergoing elective surgery served as control (N = 8. Receiver-operating characteristics curves were computed. RESULTS: ASM significantly increased after surgery in the eight control patients. Patients from the intensive care unit had significantly higher ASM on admission than control patients after surgery. 19 out of 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit developed systemic inflammation and 21 did not, with no differences in ASM between these two groups on admission. In patients with SIRS and PCT peak, ASM between admission and PCT before was not different, but further increased at PCT peak in non-survivors and was significantly higher at PCT low compared to survivors. Survivors exhibited decreased ASM at PCT peak and PCT low. Receiver operating curve analysis on discrimination of ICU mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.79 for ASM at PCT low. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, ASM was generally higher in patients admitted to the intensive care unit compared to patients undergoing uncomplicated surgery. ASM did not indicate onset of systemic inflammation. In contrast to PCT however

  17. Medical comorbidities at admission is predictive for 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction: analysis of 5161 cases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue-Dong Yang; Yu-Sheng Zhao; Yu-Feng Li; Xin-Hong Guo

    2011-01-01

    Background The present study investigated the prognostic value of medical comorbidities at admission for 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods A total of 5161 patients with AMI were admitted in Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 1. 1993 and December 31, 2007. Medical comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes mellitus,previous myocardial infarction, valvular heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), renal insufficiency, previous stroke,atrial fibrillation and anemia, were identified at admission. The patients were divided into 4 groups based on the number of medical comorbidities at admission (0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3). Cox regression analysis was used to calculate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with adjustment for age, sex, heart failure and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Results The mean age of the studied population was 63.9 ± 13.6 years, and 80.1% of the patients were male. In 74.6% of the patients at least one comorbidity were identified.Hypertension (50.7%), diabetes mellitus (24.0%) and previous myocardial infarction (12%) were the leading common comorbidities at admission. The 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with 0, I, 2, and ≥ 3 comorbidities at admission (7.2%) was 4.9%, 7.2%, 11.1%, and 20.3%, respectively. The presence of 2 or more comorbidities was associated with higher 30-day in-hospital mortality compared with patients without comorbidity (RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.13-1.77, P = 0.003, and RR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.59-2.39, P = 0.000, respectively).Conclusions Medical comorbidities were frequently found in patients with AMI. AMI patients with more comorbidities had a higher 30-day in-hospital mortality might be predictive of early poor outcome in patients with AMI.J Geriatr Cardiol2011; 8: 31-34. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1263.2011.00031

  18. Differences between adiposity indicators for predicting all-cause mortality in a representative sample of United States non-elderly adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry S Kahn

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adiposity predicts health outcomes, but this relationship could depend on population characteristics and adiposity indicator employed. In a representative sample of 11,437 US adults (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994, ages 18-64 we estimated associations with all-cause mortality for body mass index (BMI and four abdominal adiposity indicators (waist circumference [WC], waist-to-height ratio [WHtR], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and waist-to-thigh ratio [WTR]. In a fasting subsample we considered the lipid accumulation product (LAP; [WC enlargement*triglycerides]. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For each adiposity indicator we estimated linear and categorical mortality risks using sex-specific, proportional-hazards models adjusted for age, black ancestry, tobacco exposure, and socioeconomic position. There were 1,081 deaths through 2006. Using linear models we found little difference among indicators (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] per SD increase 1.2-1.4 for men, 1.3-1.5 for women. Using categorical models, men in adiposity midrange (quartiles 2+3; compared to quartile 1 were not at significantly increased risk (aHRs1.1, especially black men assessed by WTR (aHR 1.9 [1.4-2.6] and black women by LAP (aHR 2.2 [1.4-3.5]. Quartile 4 of WC or WHtR carried no significant risk for diabetic persons (aHRs 0.7-1.1, but elevated risks for those without diabetes (aHRs>1.5. For both sexes, quartile 4 of LAP carried increased risks for tobacco-exposed persons (aHRs>1.6 but not for non-exposed (aHRs<1.0. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions of mortality risk associated with top-quartile adiposity vary with the indicator used, sex, ancestry, and other characteristics. Interpretations of adiposity should consider how variation in the physiology and expandability of regional adipose-tissue depots impacts health.

  19. Level of suicidal intent predicts overall mortality and suicide after attempted suicide: a 12-year follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ostamo Aini

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to comprehensively examine clinical risk factors, including suicide intent and hopelessness, for suicide and risk of death from all causes after attempted suicide over a 12-year follow-up period. Methods A systematic sample of 224 patients from consecutive cases of attempted suicide referred to health care in four Finnish cities between 1 January and 31 July 1990 was interviewed. Results After 12 years of follow-up 22% of these patients had died, 8% by committing suicide. The only statistically significant risk factor for eventual suicide was high scores on Beck's Suicidal Intention Scale. Male gender, older age, physical illness or disability and high scores on Beck's Suicidal Intention Scale predicted death overall. Conclusions Following attempted suicide, high intention to kill oneself is a significant risk factor for both death from all causes and suicide.

  20. Low total cortisol correlates closely with low free cortisol in traumatic brain injury and predicts mortality and long-term hypopituitarism

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hannon, M J

    2011-06-01

    Published data has demonstrated that low 0900h plasma total cortisol (PTC) in the acute phase following traumatic brain injury (TBI) predicts mortality. However, there is concern regarding the use of PTC to evaluate the pituitary-adrenal axis in acutely unwell patients due to potential discrepancies between PTC and plasma free cortisol (PFC) due to variations in corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG). We hypothesised that low PTC would correlate closely with PFC and would predict mortality and long-term hypopituitarism.100 patients (84 men, median age 33, range 18-75) were recruited on admission with TBI (mean GCS+\\/-SD = 8.59+\\/-4.2). Each patient had PTC and CBG measured on days 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 following TBI. Results were compared with 15 patients admitted to ITU following vascular surgery. A PTC <300nmol\\/L in a patient in ITU was regarded clinically as inappropriately low. PFC was calculated for 25% of TBI samples and all control samples using Coolen\\'s equation (1). TBI patients reattended for dynamic pituitary testing >6 months after TBI.All controls had PTC >500 nmol\\/L on day 1, and >300 nmol on days 3–10. By contrast, 78\\/100 TBI patients had at least one PTC <300 nmol\\/L.TBI patients in the lowest quartile of final PTC measurement had the highest mortality (p=0.0187). PTC correlated closely with PFC in both TBI patients (r=0.99, p<0.0001) and controls (r=0.99, p<0.0001). 32\\/79 (40.5%) of TBI survivors attended for dynamic pituitary testing. The median time to dynamic pituitary testing was 14 months (range 6–24 months). 15\\/32 (46.9%) underwent insulin tolerance testing, 9\\/32 (28.1%) underwent glucagon testing and 8\\/32 (25%) underwent short synacthen testing. 6\\/32 (18.8%) were ACTH deficient, of whom 5\\/6 (83.3%) previously had low PTC. 6\\/32 were GH deficient, all of whom previously had low PTC. One patient was gonadotropin deficient; he previously had low PTC. No patients were TSH or prolactin deficient. Overall, 12\\/32 (37

  1. The ability of two scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injuries in a Moroccan intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham Nejmi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim of Study: We aim to assess and to compare the predicting power for in-hospital mortality (IHM of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (SAPS-II for traumatic brain injury (TBI. Patients and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted during a period of 2 years and 9 months in a Moroccan intensive care unit. Data were collected during the first 24 h of each admission. The clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed and used as per each scoring system to calculate the scores. Univariate and multivariate analyses through regression logistic models were performed, to predict IHM after moderate and severe TBIs. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC, specificities and sensitivities were determined and also compared. Results: A total of 225 patients were enrolled. The observed IHM was 51.5%. The univariate analysis showed that the initial Glasgow coma scale (GCS was lower in nonsurviving patients (mean GCS = 6 than the survivors (mean GCS = 9 with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0024. The APACHE-II and the SAPS-II of the nonsurviving patients were higher than those of the survivors (respectively 20.4 ± 6.8 and 31.2 ± 13.6 for nonsurvivors vs. 15.7 ± 5.4 and 22.7 ± 10.3 for survivors with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0032 for APACHE-II and P = 0.0045 for SAPS-II. Multivariate analysis: APACHE-II was superior for predicting IHM (AUROC = 0.92. Conclusion: The APACHE-II is an interesting tool to predict IHM of head injury patients. This is particularly relevant in Morocco, where TBI is a greater public health problem than in many other countries.

  2. Fecal calprotectin use in inflammatory bowel disease and beyond: A mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Bashaar; Aljasser, Mohammed I; Salh, Baljinder

    2015-04-01

    Given the number of inflammatory disorders affecting the gastrointestinal tract directly and indirectly, coupled with the considerable overlap with functional disorders, it is evident that more useful noninvasive diagnostic tests are required to aid with diagnosis. If these tests can also have some utility for individual patient follow-up in terms of disease activity and response to treatment, as well as providing forewarning of disease relapse, it would be extremely useful information for the clinician. One recently described test that may fulfill several of these attributes is based on leakage of a mononuclear cell cytoplasmic protein, calprotectin, along the intestinal tract, which can then be quantified in feces. This has been used to distinguish patients exhibiting symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome from patients with inflammatory bowel disease, with a measure of success greater than with currently used techniques. The present article summarizes the experience with this test used in inflammatory bowel disease, as well as a variety of gastrointestinal disorders. PMID:25855880

  3. Fecal calprotectin and ulcerative colitis endoscopic activity index as indicators of mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghvaei, Tarang; Maleki, Iradj; Nagshvar, Farshad; Fakheri, Hafez; Hosseini, Vahid; Valizadeh, Seyed Mohammad; Neishaboori, Hassan

    2015-04-01

    Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic, idiopathic, inflammatory large bowel disease with recurrent variable periods of exacerbation. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the correlation of UCEIS with fecal calprotectin (FC) level to assess disease activity in UC patients in order to determine whether FC can prognosticate clinical outcome and disease activity of UC instead of colonoscopic evaluation. Our endoscopic investigations revealed the extension of UC as the following: proctitis (11.6%), procto-sigmoiditis (18.5%), left-sided colitis (15.8%), extensive colitis (11.7%), and normal endoscopy (42.4%). Conclusively, we suggest that FC can be used as a reliable tool to evaluate disease activity in ulcerative colitis patients. Moreover, our findings indicate a significant correlation between FC level and mucosal healing. PMID:25366383

  4. Fecal calprotectin: a marker for clinical differentiation of microscopic colitis and irritable bowel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    von Arnim U

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Ulrike von Arnim, Thomas Wex, Christine Ganzert, Christian Schulz, Peter Malfertheiner Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, Otto-von-Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany Background: The aim of this study is to compare two methods for measuring fecal calprotectin (FC concentration and to evaluate the possibility of differentiation between microscopic colitis (MC and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS. Methods: Twenty-three patients with MC (six patients with active disease and 17 patients retested in remission and 20 patients with IBS were prospectively included in this study. Active disease state of MC was determined by clinical symptoms of >3 bowel movements per day and histological correlate. All patients underwent ileocolonoscopy, including segmental biopsy samples for histology. FC levels in stool samples were analyzed using a rapid test system (Quantum Blue® and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Results: FC levels were significantly higher in patients with active MC (median 48 µg/g [23–106] compared to patients with IBS (median 2 µg/g [1–111.83], P=0.0001 using an ELISA. FC level of patients with MC in remission was 22 µg/g (1–106.4, which is similar to those identified in patients with IBS. The difference of FC levels between active MC and IBS was not detected by the FC rapid test (P=0.635. Discussion: FC levels might serve as parameter for differentiation between patients with active MC and IBS. Since there is no surrogate marker available at present for MC, FC appears to be a candidate for differentiating MC from IBS. Conclusion: High FC levels, which were analyzed by ELISA, are a potential marker for patients with active MC compared to those with IBS. The FC rapid test was less suitable for this purpose. Keywords: microscopic colitis, fecal calprotectin, irritable bowel syndrome, IBS, diarrhea, chronic diarrhea

  5. Correlation between gut pathogens and fecal calprotectin levels in young children with acute diarrhea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanever Angela Lam

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background In cases of acute diarrhea, it is difficult to distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes. Increased fecal calprotectin (f-CP level is a marker of neutrophil migration in the intestinal lumen and is associated with intestinal inflammation. Previous studies reported an increase in f-CP levels in children with acute diarrhea, which is caused by bacteria, but only few have studied the relationship between intestinal pathogens with f-CP levels in acute diarrhea. Objective To assess for a correlation between gut pathogens and fecal calprotectin levels in children with acute diarrhea. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study between July to November 2012 on children aged 1-5 years with acute diarrhea, and underwent routine blood tests, stool microscopy, f-CP tests, and stool cultures. We used a simple linear regression and correlation analysis with a significance level of P<0.05. Results Forty-two children enrolled in this study. The mean age of subjects was 2.27 (SD 1.34 years. Their mean f-CP level was 93.88 (SD 14.68 μg/g. On microscopic stool examination, 26 patients (61.9% had positive leukocytes, 1 had Ancylostoma duodenale, 1 had Ascaris lumbricoides, and 2 had Blastocystis hominis. Positive stool cultures were found in 14 children (33.3% with acute diarrhea. There was a significant positive correlation between gut pathogens and f-CP levels (r=0.605; P<0.0001. Conclusion In young children with acute diarrhea, the average f-CP levels are higher in those with positive intestinal pathogens. [Paediatr Indones. 2014;54:193-7.].

  6. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  7. Rapid fecal calprotectin testing to assess for endoscopic disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease: A diagnostic cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Lukasz Kwapisz; Mahmoud Mosli; Nilesh Chande; Brian Yan; Melanie Beaton; Jessica Micsko; Mennill, Pauline W.; William Barnett; Kevin Bax; Terry Ponich; John Howard; Anthony Tirolese; Robert Lannigan; James Gregor

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aim: With increasing numbers of patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), it is important to identify noninvasive methods of detecting disease activity. The aim of this study is to examine the diagnostic accuracy of fecal rapid calprotectin (FC) testing in the detection of endoscopically active IBD. Patients and Methods: All consecutive patients presenting to outpatient clinics with lower gastrointestinal symptoms were prospectively recruited. Patients provided ...

  8. Clinicians’ guide to the use of fecal calprotectin to identify and monitor disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease

    OpenAIRE

    Brian Bressler; Remo Panaccione; Richard N Fedorak; Seidman, Ernest G.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Objective monitoring of the severity of inflammation in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an essential part of disease management. However, repeat endoscopy to define extent and severity of inflammation is not practical. Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a biomarker that can be used as a surrogate test to distinguish inflammatory from noninflammatory gastrointestinal disease.METHODS: A targeted search of the literature regarding FC, focusing primarily on the past three ye...

  9. Correlation between fecal calprotectin levels, disease severity and the hypervirulent ribotype 027 strain in patients with Clostridium difficile infection

    OpenAIRE

    Peretz, Avi; Tkhawkho, Linda; Pastukh, Nina; Brodsky, Diana; Halevi, Chen Namimi; Nitzan, Orna

    2016-01-01

    Background Clostridium difficile is the most common infectious etiology of nosocomial diarrhea. Fecal calprotectin (fc) is a sensitive marker of intestinal inflammation, found to be associated with enteric bacterial infections and inflammatory bowel disease. Methods We evaluated fc levels using a Chemiluminescent immunoassay method, in hospitalized patients with C. difficile infection (CDI) diagnosed by molecular stool examination and assessed correlation with virulent ribotype 027 strain inf...

  10. Inflammatory bowel disease activity assessed by fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin: correlation with laboratory parameters, clinical, endoscopic and histological indexes

    OpenAIRE

    Rossini Lucio; Steinwurz Flávio; Klug Wilmar; Rolim Ernani; Fang Chia; Vieira Andrea; Candelária Paulo

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Research has shown that fecal biomarkers are useful to assess the activity of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The aim of the study is: to evaluate the efficacy of the fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin as indicators of inflammatory activity. Findings A total of 78 patients presenting inflammatory bowel disease were evaluated. Blood tests, the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Mayo Disease Activity Index (MDAI), and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS...

  11. Modeling Mortality of Loblolly Pine Plantations

    OpenAIRE

    Thapa, Ram

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of mortality is an important component of forest growth and yield prediction systems, yet mortality remains one of the least understood components of the system. Whole-stand and individual-tree mortality models were developed for loblolly pine plantations throughout its geographic range in the United States. The model for predicting stand mortality were developed using stand characteristics and biophysical variables. The models were constructed using two modeling approache...

  12. Fecal Calprotectin levels and Serological Responses to Microbial Antigens among Children and Adolescents with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashorn, Sara; Honkanen, Teemu; Kolho, Kaija-Leena; Ashorn, Merja; Välineva, Tuuli; Wei, Bo; Braun, Jonathan; Rantala, Immo; Luukkaala, Tiina; Iltanen, Sari

    2008-01-01

    Objectives Non-invasive, sensitive and specific tools for early identification of chronic inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are needed for clinical practice. The aim was to identify new non-invasive test combinations for characterization of IBD in children and adolescents by comparing serological responses to microbial antigens and fecal calprotectin, a new promising marker for intestinal inflammation. Patients and methods Our study included 73 children who underwent endoscopies because of suspicion of IBD. Their sera were tested for antibodies to the Pseudomonas fluorescens-associated sequence I2, a Bacteroides caccae TonB-linked outer membrane protein, OmpW and anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae (ASCA). Simultaneously, samples for fecal calprotectin measurements were obtained from 55 subjects. Results IBD was diagnosed in 60 patients (CD in 18 patients, UC in 36 and IC in six). Thirteen children had a non-IBD disease. Fecal calprotectin levels were elevated (≥ 100ug/g) more frequently in IBD patients (89%, 39/44) compared to non-IBD cases (9%, 1/11, p<0.001). ASCA antibodies in sera were detected in 67% (12/18) of patients with CD, in 14% (5/36) of the children with UC and in 50% (3/6) of patients with IC. Seroreactivity for I2 was observed in 42% of the IBD patients, this frequency being higher than in non-IBD cases (7,7% seropositive; p=0.025). Serum anti-I2 IgA levels (median absorbances) were higher in those with IBD compared to those without gut inflammation (p=0.039). The combination of the measurements of fecal calprotectin and serological responses to microbial antigens (ASCA, I2 and OmpW) identified 100% of CD patients (sensitivity 100%, specificity 36%, PPV 66%, NPV 100%) and 89% of UC patients (sensitivity 89%, specificity 36%, PPV 77%, NPV 57%). Conclusions Increased levels of serological responses to microbial antigens (ASCA, I2 and OmpW) and fecal calprotectin are evident in both CD and UC patients. The combination of these markers provides valuable

  13. To develop a regional ICU mortality prediction model during the first 24 h of ICU admission utilizing MODS and NEMS with six other independent variables from the Critical Care Information System (CCIS) Ontario, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Kao, Raymond; Priestap, Fran; Donner, Allan

    2016-01-01

    Background Intensive care unit (ICU) scoring systems or prediction models evolved to meet the desire of clinical and administrative leaders to assess the quality of care provided by their ICUs. The Critical Care Information System (CCIS) is province-wide data information for all Ontario, Canada level 3 and level 2 ICUs collected for this purpose. With the dataset, we developed a multivariable logistic regression ICU mortality prediction model during the first 24 h of ICU admission utilizing t...

  14. Incident Subjective Cognitive Decline Does Not Predict Mortality in the Elderly – Results from the Longitudinal German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia (AgeCoDe)

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne Roehr; Tobias Luck; Kathrin Heser; Angela Fuchs; Annette Ernst; Birgitt Wiese; Jochen Werle; Horst Bickel; Christian Brettschneider; Alexander Koppara; Michael Pentzek; Carolin Lange; Jana Prokein; Siegfried Weyerer; Edelgard Mösch

    2016-01-01

    Objective Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might represent the first symptomatic representation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which is associated with increased mortality. Only few studies, however, have analyzed the association of SCD and mortality, and if so, based on prevalent cases. Thus, we investigated incident SCD in memory and mortality. Methods Data were derived from the German AgeCoDe study, a prospective longitudinal study on the epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and...

  15. Effect of low temperatures on mortality and oviposition in conjunction with climate mapping to predict spread of the root weevil Diaprepes abbreviatus and introduced natural enemies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapointe, Stephen L; Borchert, Daniel M; Hall, David G

    2007-02-01

    The tropical root weevil, Diaprepes abbreviatus (L.), has been a pest of citrus and ornamental plants since its introduction into Lake County, FL, in 1964. Since then, it has colonized the Florida peninsula to the south of its point of introduction but has not expanded its range to the north. A lower threshold for oviposition by D. abbreviatus was estimated as 14.9 degrees C. Eggs were highly susceptible to cold, with 95% mortality (LTime95) occurring in 4.2 d at 12 degrees C. Relative susceptibility of life stages to cold was eggs > pupae > larvae > adults. Archived weather data from Florida were examined to guide a mapping exercise using the lower developmental threshold for larvae (12 degrees C) and the lower threshold for oviposition (15 degrees C) as critical temperatures for mapping the distribution of D. abbreviatus and the potential for establishment of egg parasitoids. Probability maps using the last 10 yr of weather data examined the frequency of at least 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 d per winter when soil temperature was California, and Texas predict the areas where soil temperatures favor establishment of D. abbreviatus. Successful establishment of egg parasitoids in Florida seems to be limited to southern Florida, where mean daily air temperatures fall below 15 degrees C California, or Texas. PMID:17349119

  16. Validity of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in A Sub-population of Chongqing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Khalill Ramjane; Han LEI; Jing CHANG

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To determine the validity and applicability of the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) pre-diction model for in-hospital mortality in all forms of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a sub population of Chongqing. Methods Data of 669 ACS patients were collected retrospectively from Jan 2005 to Apr 2008 and were re-corded on a standardized case report form. For each patient the GRACE risk score (GRACE RS) was calculated (using the GRACE calculator available from the grace website) using specific variables collected at admission. Patients with missing data and those transferred from other hospitals were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the GRACE risk score. Results Among 576 ACS patients, 98 (17.01%), 36 (6. 25 %), and 442 (76. 74 %) presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI), non-ST elevation MI and unstable angina, re-spectively. The GRACE risk score could not be determined in 91 (9. 3 %) patients due to missing data or for patients who were transferred from other hospitals and were excluded from the analysis. The median GRACE risk score was 133 (interquartile range: 92 - 174) and, the in-hospital rates of death and death/(re-) MI were 6. 1% and 7.6 %, respec-tively. The GRACE risk score demonstrated excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0. 86, 95 % CI 0. 79 - 0. 91, P < 0. 001) for in-hospital death/ (re) -MI. Conclusions The GRACE RS study had a good predictive accuracy for death or MI across the wide range of ACS in this population. It may be a useful risk stratification tool that helps identify high-risk patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization and low risk patients who may be spared from un-dergoing more aggressive interventional treatment.

  17. Disease risk and mortality prediction in intensive care patients with pneumonia. Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boots, R J; Lipman, J; Bellomo, R; Stephens, D; Heller, R F

    2005-02-01

    This study of ventilated patients investigated pneumonia risk factors and outcome predictors in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units within Australia and New Zealand. For community acquired pneumonia, mortality increased with immunosuppression (OR 5.32, CI 95% 1.58-1799, Pspp, Stenotrophomonas spp and methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.79, CI 95% 1.43-16.03, P=0.01), were associated with increased mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia. The use of non-invasive ventilation was independently protective against mortality for patients with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.35, CI 95% 0.18-0.68, P=0.002). Mortality was similar for patients requiring both invasive and non-invasive ventilation and non-invasive ventilation alone (21% compared with 20% respectively, P=0.56). Pneumonia risks and mortality predictors in Australian and New Zealand ICUs vary with pneumonia type. A history of alcoholism is a major risk factor for mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia, greater in magnitude than the mortality effect of immunosuppression in hospital-acquired pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia. Non-invasive ventilation is associated with reduced ICU mortality. Clinical signs of consolidation worsen, while rationalising antibiotic therapy within three days of ICU admission improves mortality for community-acquired pneumonia patients. PMID:15957699

  18. Fecal Calprotectin Measured By Patients at Home Using Smartphones--A New Clinical Tool in Monitoring Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinding, Kristoffer Kofod; Elsberg, Henriette; Thorkilgaard, Tine;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Fecal calprotectin is a reliable noninvasive marker for intestinal inflammation usable for monitoring patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Tests are usually performed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), which is time consuming and delays results, thus limiting its use in...... clinical practice. Our aim was to evaluate CalproSmart, a new rapid test for fecal calprotectin performed by patients themselves at home, and compare it to gold standard ELISA. METHODS: A total of 221 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (115 ulcerative colitis and 106 Crohn's disease) were included...... using CalproSmart at home, patients also sent in 2 fecal samples to be analyzed by ELISA. RESULTS: Totally, 894 fecal calprotectin results were obtained by ELISA, and 632 of them from CalproSmart. The correlation coefficient was 0.685, higher for academics than nonacademics (0.768 versus 0.637; P = 0...

  19. Plasma growth differentiation factor-15 independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality as well as deterioration of kidney function in type 1 diabetic patients with nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lajer, Maria Stenkil; Jorsal, Anders; Tarnow, Lise;

    2010-01-01

    Growth deferentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is involved in inflammation and apoptosis. Expression is induced in the heart in response to ischemia and in atherosclerotic plaques. The aim of this study was to investigate GDF-15 levels in relation to all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and mo...

  20. Hepatitis C viral load, genotype 3 and interleukin-28B CC genotype predict mortality in HIV and hepatitis C-coinfected individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen Nygaard, Louise; Astvad, Karen; Ladelund, Steen; Larsen, Mette Vang; Schønning, Kristian; Benfield, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    : We hypothesized that hepatitis C virus (HCV) load and genotype may influence all-cause mortality in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals.......: We hypothesized that hepatitis C virus (HCV) load and genotype may influence all-cause mortality in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals....

  1. Chemotaxins C5a and fMLP induce release of calprotectin (leucocyte L1 protein) from polymorphonuclear cells in vitro.

    OpenAIRE

    Hetland, G.; Talgö, G J; Fagerhol, M K

    1998-01-01

    AIMS: To determine whether the chemotaxins C5a and formyl peptide (fMLP) can stimulate the release of calprotectin, the major leucocyte protein of polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN). METHODS: A dose response curve for the uptake of 125I labelled rC5a and fMLP in PMN was determined by radioimmunoassay. The unlabelled chemotaxins were then incubated with PMN and the concentration of calprotectin in PMN lysates and supernatants was measured by an enzyme immunoassay. RESULTS: Both rC5a and fMLP ...

  2. Comparison of Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, BISAP, APACHE-II, CTSI Scores, IL-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin in Predicting Severity, Organ Failure, Pancreatic Necrosis, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay K. Khanna

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP. Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe acute pancreatitis, 17 had pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%. Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI, IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study.

  3. Comparison of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation IV to predict intensive care unit mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashu Dev Parajuli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Clinical assessment of severity of illness is an essential component of medical practice to predict the outcome of critically ill-patient. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE model is one of the widely used scoring systems. Aims: This study was designed to evaluate the Performance of APACHE II and IV scoring systems in our Intensive Care Unit (ICU. Settings and Design: A prospective study in 6 bedded ICU, including 76 patients all above 15 years. Subjects and Methods: APACHE II and APACHE IV scores were calculated based on the worst values in the first 24 h of admission. All enrolled patients were followed, and outcome was recorded as survivors or nonsurvivors. Statistical Analysis Used: SPSS version 17. Results: The mean APACHE score was significantly higher among nonsurvivors than survivors (P < 0.005. Discrimination for APACHE II and APACHE IV was fair with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 and 0.79 respectively. The cut-off point with best Youden index for APACHE II was 17 and for APACHE IV was 85. Above cut-off point, mortality was higher for both models (P < 0.005. Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square coefficient test showed better calibration for APACHE II than APACHE IV. A positive correlation was seen between the models with Spearman′s correlation coefficient of 0.748 (P < 0.01. Conclusions: Discrimination was better for APACHE IV than APACHE II model however Calibration was better for APACHE II than APACHE IV model in our study. There was good correlation between the two models observed in our study.

  4. The values of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio in predicting 30 day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Yaqing; Mao, Yimin; He, Xuegai; Sun, Yuxia; Huang, Shenshen; Qiu, Jiayong

    2016-01-01

    Background vAcute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a life threatening disease. The treatment options depend on the severity of the disease and the mortality varies widely depending on the severity of the condition. It is important to identify patients who are at high risk of mortality. The aim of the present study was to explore the prognostic alues of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) for 30-day mortality in patients with acute PE. Methods The study includ...

  5. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    OpenAIRE

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R; Mortensen, L. H.; Deary, I J

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods: Cohort study of 4166 US male former army personnel with data on IQ test scores (in early adulthood and middle age), a range of established risk factors and 15-year mortality surveillance. Results: When CVD mortality (n = 61) was the outcome of interest, the relative index of inequality (RII: hazard ratio; 95% CI) for the m...

  6. Mortality Factors in Geriatric Blunt Trauma Patients: Creation of a Highly Predictive Statistical Model for Mortality Using 50,765 Consecutive Elderly Trauma Admissions from the National Sample Project

    OpenAIRE

    Hranjec, Tjasa; Sawyer, Robert G; Young, Jeffrey S.; Swenson, Brian R.; CALLAND, JAMES F.

    2012-01-01

    Elderly patients are at high risk for mortality after injury. We hypothesized that trauma benchmarking efforts would benefit from development of a geriatric-specific model for risk-adjusted analyses of trauma center outcomes. A total of 57,973 records of elderly patients (age older than 65 years), which met our selection criteria, were submitted to the National Trauma Database and included within the National Sample Project between 2003 and 2006. These cases were used to construct a multivari...

  7. Involvement of calprotectin (S100A8/A9) in molecular pathways associated with HNSCC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khammanivong, Ali; Sorenson, Brent S; Ross, Karen F; Dickerson, Erin B; Hasina, Rifat; Lingen, Mark W; Herzberg, Mark C

    2016-03-22

    Calprotectin (S100A8/A9), a heterodimeric protein complex of calcium-binding proteins S100A8 and S100A9, plays key roles in cell cycle regulation and inflammation, with potential functions in squamous cell differentiation. While upregulated in many cancers, S100A8/A9 is downregulated in squamous cell carcinomas of the cervix, esophagus, and the head and neck (HNSCC). We previously reported that ectopic S100A8/A9 expression inhibits cell cycle progression in carcinoma cells. Here, we show that declining expression of S100A8/A9 in patients with HNSCC is associated with increased DNA methylation, less differentiated tumors, and reduced overall survival. Upon ectopic over-expression of S100A8/A9, the cancer phenotype of S100A8/A9-negative carcinoma cells was suppressed in vitro and tumor growth in vivo was significantly decreased. MMP1, INHBA, FST, LAMC2, CCL3, SULF1, and SLC16A1 were significantly upregulated in HNSCC but were downregulated by S100A8/A9 expression. Our findings strongly suggest that downregulation of S100A8/A9 through epigenetic mechanisms may contribute to increased proliferation, malignant transformation, and disease progression in HNSCC. PMID:26883112

  8. Clinical application of fecal calprotectin%粪钙卫蛋白的临床应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    历娜娜; 唐志鹏; 郝微微; 温红珠; 刘玉婷

    2015-01-01

    粪钙卫蛋白(faecal calprotectin,FC)是一种分子量为36 kDa的钙和锌的结合蛋白,是S100钙A8结合蛋白基因的表达.其成分在中性粒细胞的细胞质所含比例最高,占30% ~ 40%.除中性粒细胞外,目前还检测到单核细胞与活化的巨噬细胞中有少量钙卫蛋白的存在.目前诊断胃肠疾病主要通过消化内镜等检查,这种检查对患者来说价格昂贵、痛苦较大且过程繁琐,而FC检测特点恰恰与其相反,具有很强的临床实用性.本文通过查阅大量文献对FC与IBD疾病活动度及疾病复发的关系、FC与内镜的关系、FC与其他疾病的关系以及影响FC数值的因素作一概述.

  9. Comparison of fecal pyruvate kinase isoform M2 and calprotectin in acute diarrhea in hospitalized children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czub, Elzbieta; Nowak, Jan K.; Moczko, Jerzy; Lisowska, Aleksandra; Banaszkiewicz, Aleksandra; Banasiewicz, Tomasz; Walkowiak, Jaroslaw

    2014-01-01

    Fecal concentrations of pyruvate kinase isoform M2 (M2-PK) and calprotectin (FC) serve as biomarkers of inflammation of gastrointestinal mucosa. The value of M2-PK in discriminating between patients with viral and bacterial acute diarrhea (AD) is currently unknown. We analyzed M2-PK and FC concentrations in fifty hospitalized children with AD (29 of which were caused by rotavirus and 21 by Salmonella enteritidis) as well as 32 healthy subjects. There was no difference in the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves plotted for the two tests in differentiating rotaviral from bacterial AD. The sensitivity and specificity of M2-PK at optimal cut-off (20 U/g) were 75.9% and 71.4%, respectively. M2-PK and FC had similar values in distinguishing between children with AD caused by rotavirus and Salmonella enteritidis. The performance of both tests in hospitalized patients did not meet the needs of everyday clinical practice. Moreover, no advantage of fecal tests over the measurement of CRP was documented. PMID:24759699

  10. Fecal Calprotectin Use in Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Beyond: A Mini-Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashaar Alibrahim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the number of inflammatory disorders affecting the gastrointestinal tract directly and indirectly, coupled with the considerable overlap with functional disorders, it is evident that more useful noninvasive diagnostic tests are required to aid with diagnosis. If these tests can also have some utility for individual patient follow-up in terms of disease activity and response to treatment, as well as providing forewarning of disease relapse, it would be extremely useful information for the clinician. One recently described test that may fulfill several of these attributes is based on leakage of a mononuclear cell cytoplasmic protein, calprotectin, along the intestinal tract, which can then be quantified in feces. This has been used to distinguish patients exhibiting symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome from patients with inflammatory bowel disease, with a measure of success greater than with currently used techniques. The present article summarizes the experience with this test used in inflammatory bowel disease, as well as a variety of gastrointestinal disorders.

  11. Valor preditivo dos escores de SNAP e SNAP-PE na mortalidade neonatal Predictive value of SNAP and SNAP-PE for neonatal mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita C. Silveira

    2001-12-01

    results. METHODS: All newborn infants admitted to our neonatal intensive care unit from March 1997 through December 1998 were prospectively evaluated just at completion of 24 hours of life for SNAP and SNAP-PE. Exclusion criteria were: death or discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit in the first 24 hours of life, congenital malformations incompatible with life, and outborn infants. RESULTS: 553 newborn infants were included in the study and 54 died. The median SNAP and SNAP-PE values were higher in those who died. Infants were allocated to five different raising ranges of SNAP and SNAP-PE severity. SNAP: up to 6, 7-11, 12-15, 16-24, higher than 24 (mortality: 3%, 11%, 29%, 48%,75%, respectively. SNAP-PE: up to 11, 12-23, 24-32, 33-50, higher than 50 (mortality: 3%, 10%, 53%, 78%, 83%, respectively. The optimal cut off points based on ROC curve were 12 for SNAP, and 24 for SNAP-PE. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV, and negative predictive value (NPV for death were figured out. SNAP 12: sensitivity 79.6%, specificity 71.7%, PPV 23.4%, NPV 97%. SNAP-PE 24: sensitivity 79.6%, specificity 80%, PPV 30%, NPV 97.3%. The area under the curve (Az were 81.4% for SNAP, and 85.1% for SNAP-PE, both statistically significant. There were no statistical differences between the two areas under the curve. CONCLUSIONS: SNAP and SNAP-PE are excellent predictors of neonatal survival. Therefore, we recommend their use in Neonatal Intensive Care Units.

  12. Calprotectin S100A9 Calcium-binding Loops I and II Are Essential for Keratinocyte Resistance to Bacterial Invasion*

    OpenAIRE

    Champaiboon, Chantrakorn; Sappington, Kaia J.; Guenther, Brian D.; Ross, Karen F.; Herzberg, Mark C.

    2009-01-01

    Epithelial cells expressing calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9 proteins, are more resistant to bacterial invasion. To determine structural motifs that affect resistance to bacterial invasion, mutations were constructed in S100A9 targeting the calcium-binding loops I and II (E36Q, E78Q, E36Q,E78Q) and the C terminus (S100A91–99 and S100A91–112), which contains putative antimicrobial zinc-binding and phosphorylation sites. The S100A8 and mutated S100A9 enco...

  13. Serum Anion Gap Predicts All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Woo Lee

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality rates are poor in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD patients. Novel risk factors related to clinical outcomes should be identified.A retrospective analysis of data from a randomized controlled study was performed in 440 CKD patients aged > 18 years, with estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-60 mL/min/1.73m2. Clinical data were available, and the albumin-adjusted serum anion gap (A-SAG could be calculated. The outcome analyzed was all-cause mortality.Of 440 participants, the median (interquartile range, IQR follow-up duration was 5.1 (3.0-5.5 years. During the follow-up duration, 29 participants died (all-cause mortality 6.6%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 0.616 (95% CI 0.520-0.712, P = 0.037. The best threshold of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 9.48 mmol/L, with sensitivity 0.793 and specificity 0.431. After adjusting for confounders, A-SAG above 9.48 mmol/L was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratio 2.968 (95% CI 1.143-7.708, P = 0.025. In our study, serum levels of beta-2 microglobulin and blood urea nitrogen (BUN were positively associated with A-SAG.A-SAG is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in advanced CKD patients. The positive correlation between A-SAG and serum beta-2 microglobulin or BUN might be a potential reason. Future study is needed.Clinicaltrials.gov NCT 00860431.

  14. Validation of the APACHE IV model and its comparison with the APACHE II, SAPS 3, and Korean SAPS 3 models for the prediction of hospital mortality in a Korean surgical intensive care unit

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Hannah; Shon, Yoon-Jung; Kim, Hyerim; Paik, Hyesun; Park, Hee-Pyoung

    2014-01-01

    Background The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV model has not yet been validated in Korea. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of the APACHE IV with those of APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3, and Korean SAPS 3 in predicting hospital mortality in a surgical intensive care unit (SICU) population. Methods We retrospectively reviewed electronic medical records for patients admitted to the SICU from March 2011 to February 2012 in a univer...

  15. The correlation between fecal calprotectin, simple clinical colitis activity index and biochemical markers in ulcerative colitis during high-dose steroid treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theede, Klaus; Kiszka-Kanowitz, Marianne; Nielsen, Anette Mertz;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Monitoring active ulcerative colitis (UC) is essential for making correct and timely treatment decisions. The current monitoring is based on symptom scores and biochemical markers, among which the role of fecal calprotectin (FC) is debated. The aims were to assess the development in FC...

  16. The effect of intestinal colonization of germ-free pigs with Escherichia coli on calprotectin levels in plasma, intestinal and bronchoalveolar lavages

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šplíchal, Igor; Fagerhol, M. K.; Trebichavský, Ilja; Šplíchalová, Alla; Schulze, J.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 209, - (2005), s. 681-687. ISSN 0171-2985 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/02/1217; GA MŠk ME 580 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5020903 Keywords : calprotectin * probiotic s * inflammatory bowel disease Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 1.812, year: 2005

  17. Long-term follow-up and analysis of prediction of mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan BAO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective To explore the risk factors for mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI. Methods The patients who were admitted with STEMI to our hospital between July 2008 and November 2012 undergoing PCI during hospitalization were enrolled. Case control study was conducted to observe these patients during the follow-up period for exploring the independent predictors of survival. Results  A total of 3551 consecutive patients were enrolled in this study. These patients were followed up for 5 years with a median followup time of 406[179, 892] days. A total of 106 deaths occurred during the follow-up period. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 88.6% by Kaplan-Meier method. Female, age, diabetes, stroke, dysarteriotony, renal insufficiency, elevation of creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB, left ventricular end diastolic dimension, anemia, anterior myocardial infarction, PCI complications and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP were independent risk factors for mortality, whereas complete revascularization was associated with decreased risk of mortality. Conclusions Long-term mortality rate of patients with STEMI is higher even after successful PCI. Less PCI complications and early complete revascularization are independent predictors for decreasing mortality rate during follow-up period. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2015.04.05

  18. Self-reported health-related quality of life predicts 5-year mortality and hospital readmissions in patients with ischaemic heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Tina Birgitte; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Zwisler, Ann-Dorthe; Helmark, Lotte; Hoogwegt, Madelein; Versteeg, Henneke; Höfer, Stefan; Oldridge, Neil

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patient health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important health outcome with lower HRQL associated with adverse events in patients with ischaemic heart disease (IHD). DESIGN: Baseline health-related quality of life was investigated as a predictor of 5-year all-cause mortality and...... registries and hazard ratios for mortality and readmissions were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: Among 938 eligible Danish patients with IHD, 662 (70.6%) participated in the international HeartQoL Project. During the 5-year follow-up, 83 patients died and 196 patients were readmitted...

  19. Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Healthy Children Aged 1-18 Months

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Ma, Jingqiu; Geng, Shanshan; Wang, Junli; Liu, Jinrong; Zhang, Jie; Sheng, Xiaoyang

    2015-01-01

    Objective Fecal calprotectin (FC) is an established biomarker of gut inflammation. The aim of this study was to evaluate FC concentrations in healthy children between 1 and 18 months of age. Methods Healthy children aged 1-18 months were enrolled in this study at the Department of Children's Health Care in Shanghai, China. Children’s stool samples were collected and analyzed, and FC concentration was determined using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The children's weights and lengths were measured. Parents were asked to complete a brief questionnaire regarding several clinical and sociodemographic factors. Results The FC concentrations were unevenly distributed; the median FC concentration was 174.3 μg/g (range: 6.0-1097.7 μg/g) or 2.241 log10 μg/g (range: 0.775-3.041 log10 μg/g) for all 288 children. The children were divided into several age groups: 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-9 months, 9-12 months and 12-18 months. The median FC concentrations for these age groups were 375.2 μg/g (2.574 log10 μg/g), 217.9 μg/g (2.338 log10 μg/g), 127.7 μg/g (2.106 log10 μg/g), 96.1 μg/g (1.983 log10 μg/g) and 104.2 μg/g (2.016 log10 μg/g), respectively. A significant correlation between age and FC concentration was found (r=-0.490, p4 years. PMID:25742018

  20. Fecal calprotectin concentrations in healthy children aged 1-18 months.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Li

    Full Text Available Fecal calprotectin (FC is an established biomarker of gut inflammation. The aim of this study was to evaluate FC concentrations in healthy children between 1 and 18 months of age.Healthy children aged 1-18 months were enrolled in this study at the Department of Children's Health Care in Shanghai, China. Children's stool samples were collected and analyzed, and FC concentration was determined using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. The children's weights and lengths were measured. Parents were asked to complete a brief questionnaire regarding several clinical and sociodemographic factors.The FC concentrations were unevenly distributed; the median FC concentration was 174.3 μg/g (range: 6.0-1097.7 μg/g or 2.241 log10 μg/g (range: 0.775-3.041 log10 μg/g for all 288 children. The children were divided into several age groups: 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-9 months, 9-12 months and 12-18 months. The median FC concentrations for these age groups were 375.2 μg/g (2.574 log10 μg/g, 217.9 μg/g (2.338 log10 μg/g, 127.7 μg/g (2.106 log10 μg/g, 96.1 μg/g (1.983 log10 μg/g and 104.2 μg/g (2.016 log10 μg/g, respectively. A significant correlation between age and FC concentration was found (r=-0.490, p4 years.

  1. Fecal Calprotectin and serum chromogranin A as potential biomarkers of irritable bowel syndrome symptom severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pletikosic, Sanda; Plavsic, Ivana; Hauser, Goran; Tkalcic, Mladenka

    2015-09-01

    Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a disorder of the lower gastrointestinal (GI) tract, which manifests as abdominal pain and/or discomfort accompanied by altered bowel function, in the absence of structural pathology. The onset and precipitation of IBS is the result of an interaction among several factors, including psychological distress, altered GI sensation and processing of sensory information as well as GI inflammation. These factors have varying contributions to disorder etiology in different patients, and in line with that, there is now emerging evidence about a low-grade inflammation in a subgroup of IBS patients. Because IBS diagnosis is based on the ROME III criteria, with the exclusion of structural pathology, patients are often exposed to numerous invasive and unpleasant tests. In order to decrease the cost of repeated testing, while simultaneously alleviating patients' anxiety, research should be aimed at detecting cost-effective biomarkers. We hypothesize chromogranin A (CgA) and fecal Calprotectin (FC) could be used to eliminate possible organic causes of IBS symptoms. Also, we hypothesize FC could be helpful in detecting IBS patients with low-grade inflammation. Forty-eight outpatients with IBS (76% females) completed a set of psychosocial measures (HRQoL, STAI, BDI, VSI, SF-36), and their FC and CgA levels were obtained. We found elevated CgA levels in 4 patients, but CgA levels were not related to any of the psychological measures used. Elevated FC levels were found in 12 patients. FC levels significantly correlated with the physical component of health related quality of life (HRQoL) (r48=-.42, p<.01). In addition, one-way ANOVA's were performed to test possible differences in psychosocial measures depending on the patient's FC status. The analysis showed only one significant difference. Patients with the highest levels of FC had significantly lower physical component of HRQoL compared to the other two groups of patients. PMID:26112162

  2. Evaluation of Crohn's disease activity: Initial validation of a magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) against faecal calprotectin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To develop an MRI enterography global score (MEGS) of Crohn's disease (CD) activity compared with a reference standard of faecal calprotectin (fC), C-reactive protein (CRP) and Harvey-Bradshaw index (HBI). Calprotectin, CRP and HBI were prospectively recorded for 71 patients (median age 33, male 35) with known/suspected CD undergoing MRI enterography. Two observers in consensus scored activity for nine bowel segments, grading mural thickness, T2 signal, mesenteric oedema, T1 enhancement and pattern, and haustral loss. Segmental scores were multiplied according to disease length. Five points each were added for lymphadenopathy, comb sign, fistulae and abscesses to derive the MEGS. A previously validated MRI CD activity score (CDAS) was also calculated. MRI scores were correlated with clinical references using Spearman's rank. A logistic regression diagnostic model was built to discriminate active (fC > 100 μg/g) from inactive disease. MEGS and CDAS were significantly correlated with fC (r = 0.46, P < 0.001) and (r = 0.39, P = 0.001) respectively. MEGS correlated with CRP (r = 0.39, P = 0.002). The model for discriminating active from inactive disease achieved an area under the receiver-operating curve of 0.75 and 0.66 after leave-one-out analysis. A magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) of CD activity correlated significantly with fC levels. (orig.)

  3. Fecal calprotectin levels are higher in rural than in urban Chinese infants and negatively associated with growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Jin-Rong

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fecal calprotectin (FC is an established simple biomarker of gut inflammation. To examine a possible relationship between linear growth and gut inflammation, we compared fecal calprotectin levels in 6 month old infants from poor rural vs affluent urban families. Methods The project was a cross-sectional comparison of FC from rural and urban populations in China. The relationship between length-for-age Z-score (LAZ and FC concentrations were also compared. Single fecal samples were assayed for FC using EK-CAL ELISA kits. Results The age of subjects for both locations was 6.1 ± 0.2 mo; all were apparently healthy. The mean ± SD of the LAZ for the rural and urban infants were −0.6 ± 0.9 and 0.4 ± 0.9, respectively. FC had a non-normal distribution. The median FC of 420.9 and 140.1 μg/g for rural and urban infants, respectively, were significantly different (P  Conclusion FC levels were significantly elevated in the rural infants and high concentrations accounted for approximately one-third of the low LAZ scores of these infants.

  4. Fecal calprotectin levels are higher in rural than in urban Chinese infants and negatively associated with growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Fecal calprotectin (FC) is an established simple biomarker of gut inflammation. To examine a possible relationship between linear growth and gut inflammation, we compared fecal calprotectin levels in 6 month old infants from poor rural vs affluent urban families. Methods The project was a cross-sectional comparison of FC from rural and urban populations in China. The relationship between length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) and FC concentrations were also compared. Single fecal samples were assayed for FC using EK-CAL ELISA kits. Results The age of subjects for both locations was 6.1 ± 0.2 mo; all were apparently healthy. The mean ± SD of the LAZ for the rural and urban infants were −0.6 ± 0.9 and 0.4 ± 0.9, respectively. FC had a non-normal distribution. The median FC of 420.9 and 140.1 μg/g for rural and urban infants, respectively, were significantly different (P < 0.0001). For the rural group, linear regression analysis showed that an increase in FC of 100 μg/g was associated with a decrease of 0.06 in LAZ. Conclusion FC levels were significantly elevated in the rural infants and high concentrations accounted for approximately one-third of the low LAZ scores of these infants. PMID:22917269

  5. Validation of the multivariable In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule within an all-payer inpatient administrative claims database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Craig I; Kohn, Christine G; Crivera, Concetta; Schein, Jeffrey R; Peacock, W Frank

    2015-01-01

    Objective To validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule, in a database consisting only of inpatient claims. Design Retrospective claims database analysis. Setting The 2012 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample. Participants Pulmonary embolism (PE) admissions were identified by an International Classification of Diseases, ninth edition (ICD-9) code either in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication. The multivariable IMPACT rule, which includes age and 11 comorbidities, was used to estimate patients’ probability of in-hospital mortality and classify them as low or higher risk (≤1.5% deemed low risk). Primary and secondary outcome measures The rule's sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistic for predicting in-hospital mortality with accompanying 95% CIs. Results A total of 34 108 admissions for PE were included, with a 3.4% in-hospital case-fatality rate. IMPACT classified 11 025 (32.3%) patients as low risk, and low risk patients had lower in-hospital mortality (OR, 0.17, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.21), shorter length of stay (−1.2 days, p99%), low PPV (4.6%) and an AUC of 0.74, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76. Conclusions The IMPACT rule appeared valid when used in this all payer, inpatient only administrative claims database. Its high sensitivity and NPV suggest the probability of in-hospital death in those classified as low risk by IMPACT was minimal. PMID:26510731

  6. Sympathoadrenal activation and endothelial damage are inter correlated and predict increased mortality in patients resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. a post Hoc sub-study of patients from the TTM-trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pär I Johansson

    Full Text Available Sympathoadrenal activation and endothelial damage are hallmarks of acute critical illness. This study investigated their association and predictive value in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA.Post-hoc analysis of patients included at a single site in The Targeted Temperature Management at 33 degrees versus 36 degrees after Cardiac Arrest (TTM trial. The main study reported similar outcomes with targeting 33 versus 36 degrees. TTM main study ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01020916. One hundred sixty three patients resuscitated from OHCA were included at a single site ICU. Blood was sampled a median 135 min (Inter Quartile Range (IQR 103-169 after OHCA. Plasma catecholamines (adrenaline, noradrenaline and serum endothelial biomarkers (syndecan-1, thrombomodulin, sE-selectin, sVE-cadherin were measured at admission (immediately after randomization. We had access to data on demography, medical history, characteristics of the OHCA, patients and 180-day outcome.Adrenaline and noradrenaline correlated positively with syndecan-1 and thrombomodulin i.e., biomarkers reflecting endothelial damage (both p<0.05. Overall 180-day mortality was 35%. By Cox analyses, plasma adrenaline, serum sE-selectin, reflecting endothelial cell activation, and thrombomodulin levels predicted mortality. However, thrombomodulin was the only biomarker independently associated with mortality after adjusting for gender, age, rhythm (shockable vs. non-shockable, OHCA to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC time, shock at admission and ST elevation myocardial infarction (30-day Hazards Ratio 1.71 (IQR 1.05-2.77, p=0.031 and 180-day Hazards Ratio 1.65 (IQR 1.03-2.65, p=0.037 for 2-fold higher thrombomodulin levels.Circulating catecholamines and endothelial damage were intercorrelated and predicted increased mortality. Interventions aiming at protecting and/or restoring the endothelium may be beneficial in OHCA patients.

  7. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hiesmayr

    Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

  8. Prediction of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Related Mortality- Lessons Learned from the In-Silico Approach: A European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Acute Leukemia Working Party Data Mining Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shouval, Roni; Labopin, Myriam; Unger, Ron; Giebel, Sebastian; Ciceri, Fabio; Schmid, Christoph; Esteve, Jordi; Baron, Frederic; Gorin, Norbert Claude; Savani, Bipin; Shimoni, Avichai; Mohty, Mohamad; Nagler, Arnon

    2016-01-01

    Models for prediction of allogeneic hematopoietic stem transplantation (HSCT) related mortality partially account for transplant risk. Improving predictive accuracy requires understating of prediction limiting factors, such as the statistical methodology used, number and quality of features collected, or simply the population size. Using an in-silico approach (i.e., iterative computerized simulations), based on machine learning (ML) algorithms, we set out to analyze these factors. A cohort of 25,923 adult acute leukemia patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) registry was analyzed. Predictive objective was non-relapse mortality (NRM) 100 days following HSCT. Thousands of prediction models were developed under varying conditions: increasing sample size, specific subpopulations and an increasing number of variables, which were selected and ranked by separate feature selection algorithms. Depending on the algorithm, predictive performance plateaued on a population size of 6,611-8,814 patients, reaching a maximal area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. AUCs' of models developed on specific subpopulation ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 for patients in second complete remission and receiving reduced intensity conditioning, respectively. Only 3-5 variables were necessary to achieve near maximal AUCs. The top 3 ranking variables, shared by all algorithms were disease stage, donor type, and conditioning regimen. Our findings empirically demonstrate that with regards to NRM prediction, few variables "carry the weight" and that traditional HSCT data has been "worn out". "Breaking through" the predictive boundaries will likely require additional types of inputs. PMID:26942424

  9. The value of physical fitness for the prediction of mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients%活动能力对维持性血液透析患者死亡率的预测价值

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张璐; 尤黎明; 郑晶; 梁艳仪; 陈念嫦; 李英娜; 李佛兰; 吕少芬

    2012-01-01

    Objective To explore the predictive value of physical fitness to mortality among MHD patients. Methods We used the convenience sampling method to recruit 317 patients from S major hospitals in Guangzhou city. The Human Activity Profile (HAP) was used to assess physical fitness among MHD patients. Results Physical fitness was valuable for the prediction of mortality in MHD patients. Higher Maximum Activity Score (MAS) and Adjusted Activity Score (AAS) were two protective factors. The more the two scores, the lower the mortality was in MHD patients. On the other hand, older age was the risk factor, and the mortality increased in patients with older age. Conclusion Physical fitness can be used to predict the mortality among MHD patients. Patients with higher physical fitness will have higher survival rate. Accordingly, it is necessary to assess physical fitness and provide health instructions about physical activities to lower the mortality in MHD patients.%目的 探讨活动能力对维持性血液透析(maintenance hemodialysis,MHD)患者死亡率的预测价值. 方法 采用方便抽样法,使用人类活动概况量表(Human Activity Profile,HAP),于2007年2月~2009年12月对广州市5家三级甲等医院维持性血液透析的317例患者进行追踪调查.结果 活动能力可以预测MHD患者的死亡率.HAP的最大活动得分(maximum activity score,MAS)和校正活动得分(adjusted activity score,AAS)是MHD患者的保护因素,其值越高,死亡率越低:年龄是MHD患者的危险因素,其值越高,死亡率越高.结论 活动能力可以预测MHD患者的死亡率,患者的活动能力越高,死亡率越低.本研究提示医护人员应该加强对MHD患者活动能力的评估,并指导患者进行适当的体力活动,从而降低MHD患者的死亡率.

  10. Seven-Day Mortality Can Be Predicted in Medical Patients by Blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory Rate, Loss of Independence, and Peripheral Oxygen Saturation (the PARIS Score)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Knudsen, Torben;

    2015-01-01

    . The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5%) met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0%) in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3%) in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were...

  11. The soluble macrophage activation markers sCD163 and Mannose Receptor (sMR) predict mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis without or with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Henning; Rødgaard-Hansen, Sidsel; Aagaard, Niels Kristian; Arroyo, Vicente; Moestrup, Søren K; Garcia, Elisabet; Solà, Elsa; Domenicali, Marco; Piano, Salvatore; Vilstrup, Hendrik; Møller, Holger Jon

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Activation of liver macrophages plays a key role in liver and systemic inflammation and may be involved in development and prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We therefore measured the circulating macrophage activation markers soluble sCD163 and mannose-receptor (s......-C AD-scores. Addition of the macrophage markers to the clinical scores improved the prognostic efficacy: In ACLF patients sCD163 improved prediction of short-term mortality (C-index:0.74(0.67-0.80)) and in patients without ACLF sMR improved prediction of long-term mortality [C-index:0.......80(0.76-0.85]. CONCLUSIONS: The severity related increase in sCD163 and sMR and close association with mortality suggest a primary importance of inflammatory activation of liver macrophages in the emergence and course of ACLF. Accordingly, supplementation of the macrophage biomarkers to the platform of the clinical scores...

  12. Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiang-Pu; Zhao, Jing; Chen, Yu; Meng, Fan-Kun; Xu, Bin; Yu, Hong-Wei; Meng, Qing-Hua; Liu, Yan-Min; Zhang, Shi-Bin; Meng, Sha; Zhang, Jing-Yun; Zhang, Jin-Yan; Duan, Zhong-Ping

    2016-01-01

    Objective Various methods, including the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, the Child–Turcotte–Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), have been used widely in liver function evaluation in patients with end-stage liver disease. In this study, we compared the ability of these methods to predict mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis. Methods A total of 98 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis were included in this study and followed up for 12 months. The ICG-derived measurements (ICG-PDR, ICG-R15, EHBF), CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na were obtained within 2 days after patients’ admission and patients’ survival at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was recorded. Receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the ability of these methods to predict mortality in these patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis. Results At 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths and liver transplant recipients was 12 (12.2%), 17 (17.3%), 21 (21.4%) and 25 (25.5%), respectively. The ICG-derived measurements, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na of nonsurvivors were significantly different compared with that in survivors. All methods yielded viable values in predicting short-term and medium-term prognosis for patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, with most area under the curve exceeding 0.8. Moreover, the ICG-derived measurements showed a significant correlation with that of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na. Conclusion All four methods, ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na, provided reliable prediction of mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis for both short-term and medium-term prognosis. PMID:26649802

  13. Plasma concentrations of the vasoactive peptide fragments mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin 1 and copeptin in hemodialysis patients: associated factors and prediction of mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferruh Artunc

    Full Text Available Vasopressin, endothelin and adrenomedullin are vasoactive peptides that regulate vascular tone and might play a role in hypertensive diseases. Recently, laboratory assays have been developed to measure stable fragments of vasopressin, endothelin and adrenomedullin. Little is known about their diagnostic and prognostic value in hemodialysis patients. In this study, we measured the plasma concentration of copeptin, mid-regional-pro-adrenomedullin (MR-pro-ADM and C-terminal pro-endothelin 1 (CT-pro-ET1 in stable ambulatory hemodialysis patients (n = 239 and investigated their associations with clinical factors and mortality. In all patients enrolled, the plasma concentrations of copeptin, MR-pro-ADM and CT-pro-ET1 were largely elevated with a median concentration of 132 pmol/L (interquartile range [IQR] 78-192 for copeptin, 1.26 nmol/L (IQR 1.02-1.80 for MR-pro-ADM and 149 pmol/L (IQR 121-181 for CT-pro-ET1. The plasma concentrations of all vasoactive peptide fragments correlated with time on dialysis and plasma β2-microglobulin concentration and were negatively correlated to residual diuresis. The plasma concentration of MR-pro-ADM was a strong predictor of all-cause (univariate hazard ratio for a 10-fold increase 9.94 [3.14;32], p<0.0001 and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio 34.87 [5.58;217], p = 0.0001 within a 3.8-year follow-up. The associations remained stable in models adjusted for dialysis specific factors and were attenuated in a full model adjusted for all prognostic factors. Plasma copeptin concentration was weakly associated with cardiovascular mortality (only in univariate analysis and CT-pro-ET1 was not associated with mortality at all. In conclusion, vasoactive peptide fragments are elevated in hemodialysis patients because of accumulation and, most likely, increased release. Increased concentrations of MR-pro-ADM are predictive of mortality.

  14. 不同昏迷量表在神经重症监护中对院内死亡的评估%A study on the coma scales for the prediction of the in-hospital mortality in NICU

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡旻婧; 张元媛; 柯开富

    2013-01-01

    Objective:T o evaluate the value of different coma scales in predicting the hospital mortality in one month which caused by acute coma. Methods:60 cases of coma patients were arranged in the intensive care unit of neurol-ogy department. Glasgow coma scale (GCS), Glasgow-Pittsburgh Coma Scale (GCS-P), Full Outline of Unresponsiveness score (FOUR) would be recorded according to the acute coma patients within 72 h after they arrived. The in-hospital mor-tality within one month would be recorded. Use Logistic regression to investigate the relationship between scale and in-hospital mortality. Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that GCS, GCS-P and FOUR were negatively related to the mortality in hospital. Conclusion:GCS , GCS-P , FOUR were relevant with the in-hospital mortality in one month.%目的:评估不同昏迷量表在神经重症监护(NICU)内对急性昏迷患者1月内院内死亡率的预测价值。方法:在发病72h内记录昏迷患者60例的格拉斯哥昏迷评分(GCS)、格拉斯哥匹兹堡昏迷评分(GCS-P)、全面无意识评分(FOUR),随访1月记录院内死亡率,使用Logistic回归,判断各量表与院内死亡率之间的关系。结果:Logistic回归分析发现GCS评分、GCS-P评分、FOUR评分分值与院内死亡负相关。结论:GCS评分、GCS-P评分、FOUR评分与昏迷患者院内死亡相关。

  15. Can Serum Levels of Alkaline Phosphatase and Phosphate Predict Cardiovascular Diseases and Total Mortality in Individuals with Preserved Renal Function? A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jing-Wei Li; Cui Xu; Ye Fan; Yong Wang; Ying-Bin Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Background It is demonstrated that elevated serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and phosphate indicate a higher risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality in population with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it remains unclear whether this association exists in people with normal or preserved renal function. Method Clinical trials were searched from Embase and PubMed from inception to 2013 December using the keywords “ALP”, “phosphate”, “CVD”, “mortality” and so on, and ...

  16. The serum level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in tuberculosis patients and predicts mortality during treatment: a community study from Guinea-Bissau

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Gustafson, P; Sidenius, N;

    2002-01-01

    /ml). During the 8-month treatment period, 23 TB cases died. In a multivariate Cox model controlling for HIV status, age, sex, CD4 count and type of TB diagnosis, the mortality increase per ng suPAR was 1.25 (95%CI 1.12-1.40). After treatment, suPAR levels had decreased to the levels of TB-negative individuals...

  17. Nutritional parameters predicting pressure ulcers and short-term mortality in patients with minimal conscious state as a result of traumatic and non-traumatic acquired brain injury

    OpenAIRE

    Montalcini, Tiziana; Moraca, Marta; Ferro, Yvelise; Romeo, Stefano; Serra, Sebastiano; Raso, Maria Girolama; Rossi, Francesco; Sannita, Walter G.; Dolce, Giuliano; Pujia, Arturo

    2015-01-01

    Background The association between malnutrition and worse outcomes as pressure ulcers and mortality is well established in a variety of setting. Currently none investigation was conducted in patients with long-term consequences of the acquired brain injury in which recovery from brain injury could be influenced by secondary complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between various nutritional status parameters (in particular albumin) and pressure ulcers formation...

  18. Total leukocyte count but not C-reactive protein predicts one-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes treated with percutaneous coronary intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Ndrepepa, Gjin; Braun, Siegmund; Iijima, Raisuke; Keta, Dritan; Byrne, Robert A.; Schulz, Stefanie; Mehilli, Julinda; Schömig, Albert; Kastrati, Adnan

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Although an association between elevated white blood cells (WBC) count and mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has been established, the independence of this association from coronary risk factors and C-reactive protein has been inadequately studied. This prospective registry included 4329 patients with ACS treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI): 1059 patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction, 1753 patients with non...

  19. Predicting cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease in Spain. The rationale and design of NEFRONA: a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Roig Jordi; Sarró Felipe; Vidal Teresa; Valdivielso Jose; Coll Blai; Borràs Mercè; Martínez Montserrat; Junyent Mireia; Craver Lourdes; Fernández Elvira

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk (reverse epidemiology effect) and the presence of emerging risk factors specifically related to kidney failure. Therefore, diagnostic tools capable of improving cardiovascular risk assessment beyond tradit...

  20. Evaluating virulence of waterborne and clinical Aeromonas isolates using gene expression and mortality in neonatal mice followed by assessing cell culture’s ability to predict virulence based on transcriptional response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayes, S L; Rodgers, M R; Lye, D J; Stelma, G N; McKinstry, Craig A.; Malard, Joel M.; Vesper, Sephen J.

    2007-10-01

    Aims: To assess the virulence of Aeromonas spp. using two models, a neonatal mouse assay and a mouse intestinal cell culture. Methods and Results: After artificial infection with a variety of Aeromonas spp., mRNA extracts from the two models were processed and hydridized to murine microarrays to determine host gene response. Definition of virulence was determined based on host mRNA production in murine neonatal intestinal tissue and mortality of infected animals. Infections of mouse intestinal cell cultures were then performed to determine whether this simpler model system’s mRNA responses correlated to neonatal results and therefore be predictive of virulence of Aeromonas spp. Virulent aeromonads up-regulated transcripts in both models including multiple host defense gene products (chemokines, regulation of transcription and apoptosis and cell signalling). Avirulent species exhibited little or no host response in neonates. Mortality results correlated well with both bacterial dose and average fold change of up-regulated transcripts in the neonatal mice. Conclusions: Cell culture results were less discriminating but showed promise as potentially being able to be predictive of virulence. Jun oncogene up-regulation in murine cell culture is potentially predictive of Aeromonas virulence. Significance and Impact of the Study: Having the ability to determine virulence of waterborne pathogens quickly would potentially assist public health officials to rapidly assess exposure risks.

  1. The Prognostic Value of Irradiated Lung Volumes on the Prediction of Intra-/ Post-Operative Mortality in Patients after Neoadjuvant Radiochemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer. A Retrospective Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kup, Philipp Günther; Nieder, Carsten; Geinitz, Hans; Henkenberens, Christoph; Besserer, Angela; Oechsner, Markus; Schill, Sabine; Mücke, Ralph; Scherer, Vera; Combs, Stephanie E.; Adamietz, Irenäus A.; Fakhrian, Khashayar

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the association between dosimetric factors of the lung and incidence of intra- and postoperative mortality among esophageal cancer (EC) patients treated with neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (N-RCT) followed by surgery (S). Methods and Materials: Inclusion criteria were: age < 85 years, no distant metastases at the time of diagnosis, no induction chemotherapy, conformal radiotherapy, total dose ≤ 50.4 Gy, and available dose volume histogram (DVH) data. One-hundred thirty-five patients met our inclusion criteria. Median age was 62 years. N-RCT consisted of 36 - 50.4 Gy (median 45 Gy), 1.8 - 2 Gy per fraction. Concomitant chemotherapy consisted of 5-Fluoruracil (5-FU) and cisplatin in 113 patients and cisplatin and taxan-derivates in 15 patients. Seven patients received a single cytotoxic agent. In 130 patients an abdominothoracal and in 5 patients a transhiatal resection was performed. The following dosimetric parameters were generated from the total lung DVH: mean dose, V5, V10, V15, V20, V30, V40, V45 and V50. The primary endpoint was the rate of intra- and postoperative mortality (from the start of N-RCT to 60 days after surgical resection). Results: A total of ten postoperative deaths (7%) were observed: 3 within 30 days (2%) and 7 between 30 and 60 days after surgical intervention (5%); no patient died during the operation. In the univariate analysis, weight loss (≥10% in 6 months prior to diagnosis, risk ratio: 1.60, 95%CI: 0.856-2.992, p=0.043), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-performance status (ECOG 2 vs. 1, risk ratio: 1.931, 95%CI: 0.898-4.150, p=0.018) and postoperative pulmonary plus non-pulmonary complications (risk ratio: 2.533, 95%CI: 0.978-6.563, p=0.004) were significantly associated with postoperative mortality. There was no significant association between postoperative mortality and irradiated lung volumes. Lung V45 was the only variable which was significantly associated with higher incidence of postoperative pulmonary

  2. The TG/HDL Cholesterol Ratio Predicts All Cause Mortality in Women With Suspected Myocardial Ischemia A Report from the Women’s Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation (WISE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Vera; Johnson, B. Delia; Zineh, Issam; Rogers, William J.; Vido, Diane; Marroquin, Oscar C.; Bairey-Merz, C. Noel; Sopko, George

    2009-01-01

    High triglycerides (TG) and low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are important cardiovascular risk factors in women. The prognostic utility of the TG/HDL-C ratio, a marker for insulin resistance and small dense low density lipoprotein particles, is unknown among high risk women. Methods We studied 544 women without prior myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization, referred for clinically indicated coronary angiography and enrolled in the Women’s Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation (WISE). Fasting lipid profiles and detailed demographic and clinical data were obtained at baseline. Multi-variate Cox-proportional hazards models for all cause mortality and cardiovascular events (death, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke) over a median follow-up of 6 years were constructed using log TG/HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and accounting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Results Mean age was 57±11 years, 84% were white, 55% hypertensive, 20% diabetic, 50% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ranged from 0.3 to 18.4 (median 2.2, first quartile 0.35 to <1.4, fourth quartile 3.66–18.4). Deaths (n=33) and CV events (n=83) increased across TG/HDL-C quartiles (both p<0.05 for trend). TG/HDL-C was a strong independent predictor of mortality in models adjusted for age, race, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and angiographic coronary disease severity (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.05, 3.64, p=0.04). For cardiovascular events, the multivariate HR was 1.54 (95% CI 1.05, 2.22, p=0.03) when adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, but became non-significant when angiographic results were included. Conclusion Among women with suspected ischemia, the TG/HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all cause mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:19249427

  3. Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    India Wheeler

    Full Text Available Early warning scores (EWS are widely used in well-resourced healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of mortality. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS is a well-known EWS used comprehensively in the United Kingdom. The HOTEL score (Hypotension, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, ECG abnormality, Loss of independence was developed and tested in a European cohort; however, its validity is unknown in resource limited settings. This study compared the performance of both scores and suggested modifications to enhance accuracy.A prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 yrs admitted to medical wards at a Malawian hospital. Primary outcome was mortality within three days. Performance of MEWS and HOTEL were assessed using ROC analysis. Logistic regression analysis identified important predictors of mortality and from this a new score was defined.Three-hundred-and-two patients were included. Fifty-one (16.9% died within three days of admission. With a cut-point ≥2, the HOTEL score had sensitivity 70.6% (95% CI: 56.2 to 82.5 and specificity 59.4% (95% CI: 53.0 to 65.5, and was superior to MEWS (cut-point ≥5; sensitivity: 58.8% (95% CI: 44.2 to 72.4, specificity: 56.2% (95% CI: 49.8 to 62.4. The new score, dubbed TOTAL (Tachypnoea, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, Alert, Loss of independence, showed slight improvement with a cut-point ≥2; sensitivity 76.5% (95% CI: 62.5 to 87.2 and specificity 67.3% (95% CI: 61.1 to 73.1.Using an EWS generated in developed healthcare systems in resource limited settings results in loss of sensitivity and specificity. A score based on predictors of mortality specific to the Malawian population showed enhanced accuracy but not enough to warrant clinical use. Despite an assumption of common physiological responses, disease and population differences seem to strongly determine the performance of EWS. Local validation and impact assessment of these scores should precede their adoption in resource limited settings.

  4. High-sensitive cardiac Troponin T is superior to echocardiography in predicting 1-year mortality in patients with SIRS and shock in intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bergenzaun Lill

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Left ventricular (LV dysfunction is well documented in the critically ill. We assessed 1-year mortality in relation to cardiac biomarkers and LV function parameters by echocardiography in patients with shock. Methods A prospective, observational, cohort study of 49 patients. B-natriuretic peptide (BNP, high-sensitive troponin T (hsTNT and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE were assessed within 12 h of study inclusion. LV systolic function was measured by ejection fraction (LVEF, mean atrioventricular plane displacement (AVPDm, peak systolic tissue Doppler velocity imaging (TDIs and velocity time integral in the LV outflow tract (LVOT VTI. LV diastolic function was evaluated by transmitral pulsed Doppler (E, A, E/A, E-deceleration time, tissue Doppler indices (é, á, E/é and left atrial volume (La volume. APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores were calculated. Results hsTNT was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (60 [17.0-99.5] vs 168 [89.8-358] ng/l, p = 0.003. Other univariate predictors of mortality were APACHE II (p = 0.009, E/é (p = 0.023, SOFA (p = 0.024 and age (p = 0.031. Survivors and non-survivors did not differ regarding BNP (p = 0.26 or any LV systolic function parameter (LVEF p = 0.87, AVPDm p = 0.087, TDIs p = 0.93, LVOT VTI p = 0.18. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified hsTNT (p = 0.010 as the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality; adjusted odds ratio 2.0 (95% CI 1.2- 3.5. Conclusions hsTNT was the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with shock. Neither BNP nor echocardiographic parameters had an independent prognostic value. Further studies are needed to establish the clinical significance of elevated hsTNT in patients in shock.

  5. Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Woollard, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    In this chapter we will look at the ways in which you can use ICT in the classroom to support hypothesis and prediction and how modern technology is enabling: pattern seeking, extrapolation and interpolation to meet the challenges of the information explosion of the 21st century.

  6. Dynamic Change of Fecal Calprotectin in Very Low Birth Weight Infants during the First Month of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qing; Smith, P. Brian; Goldberg, Ronald N.; Cotten, C. Michael

    2008-01-01

    Background Calprotectin is a cytosolic component of neutrophils. Fecal calprotectin (FC) level is a useful marker for exacerbation of inflammatory bowel disease in children. FC may be a useful marker for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Objective To determine normal baseline levels of FC and observe dynamic changes of FC levels over the first postnatal month in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Methods FC levels of 14 VLBW infants (gestational age 23–30 weeks, birth weight ≤1,500 g) were serially measured in the first postnatal month. Demographics, feeding regimens, antibiotic use, laboratory and x-ray results, and maternal information were recorded. We assessed how FC levels changed over time, varied with nutritional source and differed between sick versus well infants. Results FC levels were not related to gestational age or feedings regimen. FC levels tended to decrease with increasing age (p = 0.121) and feeding volumes (p = 0.179). FC levels differed between ‘well’ and ‘sick’ infants (122.8 ± 98.9 vs. 380.4 ± 246.3 μg/g stool, p 350 μg/g stool was noted with signs of gastrointestinal injury, such as bloody stool and bowel perforation. FC levels decreased after initiation of treatments in sick infants who recovered. Conclusions FC levels may be a marker for early diagnosis and resolution of gastrointestinal illnesses in VLBW infants. Its utility for early diagnosis and assessment of resolution of NEC should be studied in a larger cohort of VLBW infants. PMID:18784422

  7. Towards evidence-based emergency medicine: best BETs from the Manchester Royal Infirmary. BET 3: Super calprotectin will not expedite your discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Daniel; Long, Anna-May

    2013-08-01

    A short-cut review was carried out to establish whether measurement of the plasma calprotectin (S100A8/A9) level can be used to enable safe exclusion of acute appendicitis in children presenting to the emergency department with abdominal pain. Four studies were directly relevant to the question. The author, date and country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes, results and study weaknesses of these papers are shown in table 3. The clinical bottom line is that there is currently no evidence to suggest that serum calprotectin is superior to standard inflammatory markers for the exclusion or confirmation of suspected appendicitis. Clinical examination findings remain the cornerstone of surgical decision-making. PMID:23873000

  8. Are single indicators of deprivation as useful as composite indicators in predicting morbidity and mortality: results from the Central Clydeside Conurbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellaway, A

    1997-09-01

    Analysis of 1991 Census data for the Central Clydeside Conurbation suggests that male unemployment and car ownership provide useful alternatives to composite deprivation indices in predicting health. PMID:11769104

  9. Prediction of morbidity and mortality in middle and old aged surgical patients-comparison of standard scoring system and addition of echocardiography with hemodynamic indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit K. Singh

    2015-10-01

    Conclusions: In conclusion preoperative TTE before non-cardiac surgery can predict the risk of perioperative cardiac complications in known or suspected cases of cardiac disease patients. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(10.000: 2543-2548

  10. Fecal occult blood and fecal calprotectin as point-of-care markers of intestinal morbidity in Ugandan children with Schistosoma mansoni infection.

    OpenAIRE

    Amaya L Bustinduy; SOUSA-FIGUEIREDO, JOSÉ C.; Moses Adriko; Martha Betson; Alan Fenwick; Narcis Kabatereine; J Russell Stothard

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytoplasmic protein found in neutrophils and increasingly used as a marker of bowel inflammation. Fecal occult blood (FOB) is also a dependable indicator of bowel morbidity. The objective of our study was to determine the applicability of these tests as surrogate markers of Schistosoma mansoni intestinal morbidity before and after treatment with praziquantel (PZQ). METHODS: 216 children (ages 3-9 years old) from Buliisa District in Lake Albert, Ug...

  11. Clinical outcomes at 12 months and risk of inflammatory bowel disease in patients with an intermediate raised fecal calprotectin: a ‘real-world’ view

    OpenAIRE

    McFarlane, Michael; Chambers, Samantha; Malik, Ahmad; Lee, Bee; Sung, Edmond; Nwokolo, Chuka; Waugh, Norman; Arasaradnam, Ramesh

    2016-01-01

    Objectives A recent systematic review confirmed the usefulness of fecal calprotectin (FC) in distinguishing organic (inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)) from non-organic gastrointestinal disease (irritable bowel syndrome (IBS)). FC levels 92% to exclude organic gastrointestinal (GI) disease. Levels >250 μg/g correlate with endoscopic IBD disease activity; sensitivity 90%. We aimed to determine clinical outcomes in intermediate raised FC results (50–250 μg/g). Setting Primary care general practi...

  12. POSSUM escore como preditor de mortalidade em pacientes cirúrgicos Utilizacion del puntaje POSSUM como indicador de la mortalidad en pacientes quirúrgicos POSSUM scoring system for predicting mortality in surgical patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Cristina Galbiatti Parminondi Elias

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available O estudo avaliou a utilização do escore POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity para predizer a mortalidade na prática cirúrgica.Foram analisados 416 pacientes cirúrgicos com internação na UTI para cuidados de pós-operatório. Foram realizadas comparações entre as taxas de mortalidade predita e observada de acordo com 4 grupos de risco: 0-4%, 5-14%, 15-49%, 50% ou mais, e calculada a área sob a curva ROC do escore POSSUM e APACHE II para a mortalidade. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 22,4%. O escores POSSUM e APACHE II superestimaram o risco de morte, e a área sob a curva ROC do POSSUM foi de 0,762 e a do APACHE II de 0,737, sugerindo a utilização do POSSUM como ferramenta auxiliar na predição de risco de morte em pacientes cirúrgicos.El estudio evaluó la utilización del puntaje POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbity para predecir la mortalidad en la práctica quirúrgica. Fueron analizados 416 pacientes quirúrgicos internados en la UTI para cuidados postoperatorios. Fueron realizadas comparaciones entre las tasas de mortalidad estimada y observada, de acuerdo con 4 grupos de riesgo: 0-4%, 5-14%, 15-49%, 50% o más, y calculada el área debajo de la curva ROC del puntaje POSSUM y APACHE II para la mortalidad. La tasa de mortalidad fue de 2,4%. Los puntajes POSSUM y APACHE II superestimaron el riesgo de muerte, y el área debajo de la curva ROC del POSSUM fue de 0,762 y la del APACHE II de 0,737, lo que sugiere la utilización del POSSUM como herramienta auxiliar en la predicción de riesgo de muerte en pacientes quirúrgicos.This study evaluated the use of the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity score for predicting mortality in surgical practice. In this study, 416 surgical patients admitted into ICUs for post-surgical care were analyzed. Both predicted and actual

  13. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  14. Fecal occult blood and fecal calprotectin as point-of-care markers of intestinal morbidity in Ugandan children with Schistosoma mansoni infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaya L Bustinduy

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytoplasmic protein found in neutrophils and increasingly used as a marker of bowel inflammation. Fecal occult blood (FOB is also a dependable indicator of bowel morbidity. The objective of our study was to determine the applicability of these tests as surrogate markers of Schistosoma mansoni intestinal morbidity before and after treatment with praziquantel (PZQ. METHODS: 216 children (ages 3-9 years old from Buliisa District in Lake Albert, Uganda were examined and treated with PZQ at baseline in October 2012 with 211 of them re-examined 24 days later for S. mansoni and other soil transmitted helminths (STH. POC calprotectin and FOB assays were performed at both time points on a subset of children. Associations between the test results and infection were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Fecal calprotectin concentrations of 150-300 µg/g were associated with S. mansoni egg patent infection both at baseline and follow up (OR: 12.5 P = 0.05; OR: 6.8 P = 0.02. FOB had a very strong association with baseline anemia (OR: 9.2 P = 0.03 and medium and high egg intensity schistosomiasis at follow up (OR: 6.6 P = 0.03; OR: 51.3 P = 0.003. Both tests were strongly associated with heavy intensity S. mansoni infections. There was a significant decrease in FOB and calprotectin test positivity after PZQ treatment in those children who had egg patent schistosomiasis at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Both FOB and calprotectin rapid assays were found to correlate positively and strongly with egg patent S. mansoni infection with a positive ameloriation response after PZQ treatment indicative of short term reversion of morbidity. Both tests were appropriate for use in the field with excellent operational performance and reliability. Due to its lower-cost which makes its scale-up of use affordable, FOB could be immediately adopted as a monitoring tool for PC campaigns for efficacy evaluation before and after treatment.

  15. Fecal Occult Blood and Fecal Calprotectin as Point-of-Care Markers of Intestinal Morbidity in Ugandan Children with Schistosoma mansoni Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustinduy, Amaya L.; Sousa-Figueiredo, José C.; Adriko, Moses; Betson, Martha; Fenwick, Alan; Kabatereine, Narcis; Stothard, J. Russell

    2013-01-01

    Background Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytoplasmic protein found in neutrophils and increasingly used as a marker of bowel inflammation. Fecal occult blood (FOB) is also a dependable indicator of bowel morbidity. The objective of our study was to determine the applicability of these tests as surrogate markers of Schistosoma mansoni intestinal morbidity before and after treatment with praziquantel (PZQ). Methods 216 children (ages 3–9 years old) from Buliisa District in Lake Albert, Uganda were examined and treated with PZQ at baseline in October 2012 with 211 of them re-examined 24 days later for S. mansoni and other soil transmitted helminths (STH). POC calprotectin and FOB assays were performed at both time points on a subset of children. Associations between the test results and infection were analysed by logistic regression. Results Fecal calprotectin concentrations of 150–300 µg/g were associated with S. mansoni egg patent infection both at baseline and follow up (OR: 12.5 P = 0.05; OR: 6.8 P = 0.02). FOB had a very strong association with baseline anemia (OR: 9.2 P = 0.03) and medium and high egg intensity schistosomiasis at follow up (OR: 6.6 P = 0.03; OR: 51.3 P = 0.003). Both tests were strongly associated with heavy intensity S. mansoni infections. There was a significant decrease in FOB and calprotectin test positivity after PZQ treatment in those children who had egg patent schistosomiasis at baseline. Conclusions Both FOB and calprotectin rapid assays were found to correlate positively and strongly with egg patent S. mansoni infection with a positive ameloriation response after PZQ treatment indicative of short term reversion of morbidity. Both tests were appropriate for use in the field with excellent operational performance and reliability. Due to its lower-cost which makes its scale-up of use affordable, FOB could be immediately adopted as a monitoring tool for PC campaigns for efficacy evaluation before and after

  16. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, George David; Shipley, Martin J; Gale, Catharine R;

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and eleven established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: Cohort study of 4166 US male former army personnel with data on IQ test scores (in early adulthood and middle-age), a...... age-adjusted analyses) was: 6.58 (2.54, 17.1) for family income; 5.55 (2.16, 14.2) for total cholesterol; 5.12 (2.01, 13.0) for body mass index; 4.70 (1.89, 11.7) for IQ in middle-age; 4.29 (1.70, 10.8) for blood glucose; and 4.08 (1.63, 10.2) for HDL cholesterol (the RII for IQ in early adulthood was...... ranked tenth: 2.88; 1.19, 6.97). In analyses featuring all deaths (N=233), the RII for risk factors most strongly related to this outcome was: 7.46 (4.54, 12.3) for family income; 4.41 (2.77, 7.03) for IQ in middle-age; 4.02 (2.37, 6.83) for smoking; 3.81 (2.35, 6.17) for educational attainment; 3.40 (2...

  17. Mathematical model for predicting the probability of acute mortality in a human population exposed to accidentally released airborne radionuclides. Final report for Phase I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filipy, R.E.; Borst, F.J.; Cross, F.T.; Park, J.F.; Moss, O.R.; Roswell, R.L.; Stevens, D.L.

    1980-05-01

    A mathematical model was constructed for the purpose of predicting the fraction of human population which would die within 1 year of an accidental exposure to airborne radionuclides. The model is based on data from laboratory experiments with rats, dogs and baboons, and from human epidemiological data. Doses from external, whole-body irradiation and from inhaled, alpha- and beta-emitting radionuclides are calculated for several organs. The probabilities of death from radiation pneumonitis and from bone marrow irradiation are predicted from doses accumulated within 30 days of exposure to the radioactive aerosol. The model is compared with existing similar models under hypothetical exposure conditions. Suggestions for further experiments with inhaled radionuclides are included. 25 refs., 16 figs., 13 tabs.

  18. Circumferential Strain Can Be Used to Detect Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Myocardial Dysfunction and Predict the Mortality of Severe Sepsis in Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Ming; Gao, Yao; Zhou, Bin; Wu, Bingruo; Wang, Junhong; Xu, Di

    2016-01-01

    Background Sepsis-induced myocardial dysfunction is a common and severe complication of septic shock. However, conventional echocardiography often fails to reveal myocardial depression in severe sepsis. Recently, strain measurements based on speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) have been used to evaluate cardiac function. Aims To investigate the role of STE in detecting lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced cardiac dysfunction, M-mode and 2-D echocardiography were used in LPS-treated mice. Methods The mice were treated with a 10mg/kg (n = 10), 20mg/kg (n = 10) or 25mg/kg LPS (n = 30) to induce cardiac dysfunction. Subsequently, the ejection fraction (EF) and fractional shortening (FS) were measured with standard M-mode tracings, whereas the circumferential (Scirc) and radial strain (Srad) were measured with STE. Serum biochemical and cardiac histopathological examinations were performed to assess sepsis-induced myocardial injury. Results 20mg/kg LPS resulted in more deterioration, myocardial damage and cardiac contractile dysfunction based on serum biochemical and histological examinations. The mice that were subjected to 20mg/kg LPS exhibited reduced Scirc but no reduction in Srad, whereas on conventional echocardiography, the ejection fraction (EF) and fractional shortening (FS) were similar in the 10mg/kg and 20mg/kg groups. Moreover, Scirc was positively correlated with body temperature in the mice at 20 h after LPS injection (r = 0.746, p = 0.001), but no significant correlation was observed between Srad and body temperature (r = 0.356, p = 0.123). Moreover, the mice with high Scirc (-5.9% to -10.4%) exhibited reduced mortality following the administration of 25mg/kg LPS (p = 0.03) compared with the low-strain group (-2% to -5.9%). Conclusions Taken together, our findings indicate that circumferential strain is a specific and reliable indicator for evaluating LPS-induced cardiac dysfunction in mice. PMID:27177150

  19. Peripheral Arterial Disease Study (PERART: Prevalence and predictive values of asymptomatic peripheral arterial occlusive disease related to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bundó Magda

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The early diagnosis of atherosclerotic disease is essential for developing preventive strategies in populations at high risk and acting when the disease is still asymptomatic. A low ankle-arm index (AAI is a good marker of vascular events and may be diminished without presenting symptomatology (silent peripheral arterial disease. The aim of the PERART study (PERipheral ARTerial disease is to determine the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (both silent and symptomatic in a general population of both sexes and determine its predictive value related to morbimortality (cohort study. Methods/Design This cross-over, cohort study consists of 2 phases: firstly a descriptive, transversal cross-over study to determine the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease, and secondly, a cohort study to evaluate the predictive value of AAI in relation to cardiovascular morbimortality. From September 2006 to June 2007, a total of 3,010 patients over the age of 50 years will be randomly selected from a population adscribed to 24 healthcare centres in the province of Barcelona (Spain. The diagnostic criteria of peripheral arterial disease will be considered as an AAI Discussion In this study we hope to determine the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease, especially the silent forms, in the general population and establish its relationship with cardiovascular morbimortality. A low AAI may be a better marker of arterial disease than the classical cardiovascular risk factors and may, therefore, contribute to improving the predictive value of the equations of cardiovascular risk and thereby allowing optimisation of multifactorial treatment of atherosclerotic disease.

  20. El índice de Karnofsky como predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con nutrición enteral domiciliaria Karnosfsky index as a mortality predicting factor in patients on home-based enteral nutrition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Puiggròs

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available El índice de Karnofsky (IK es una escala funcional desarrollada en oncología y ampliamente utilizada, que ha mostrado ser útil para predecir la evolución en pacientes oncológicos y geriátricos. Teóricamente, como herramienta de valoración funcional podría predecir la mortalidad en pacientes con nutrición enteral domiciliaria (NED. Objetivos del estudio: Conocer el IK inicial y su evolución a 6 meses en pacientes en régimen de NED y estudiar la relación entre la tasa de mortalidad de los mismos con dicho índice. Material y métodos: Estudio observacional y prospectivo realizado durante 2002 y 2003 con pacientes neurológicos y oncológicos con nutrición enteral por sonda seguidos durante 10 meses desde su inclusión en el programa de NED. Resultados: Se estudiaron 201 pacientes, 131 (65,2% neurológicos y 70 (34,8% oncológicos, sin existir entre ambos grupos diferencias significativas en la edad, días con NE y mortalidad al final del periodo de estudio (35,1% en pacientes neurológicos y 40% en oncológicos. A los 10 meses un mayor porcentaje de pacientes oncológicos había recuperado la capacidad de ingesta oral (27,1% frente a 10,7% en los neurológicos, p Karnofsky Index (KI is a widely used functional scale developed for oncology patients. It has proved useful as outcome predictor with cancer and geriatric patients. Theoretically, KI could be used to predict mortality in patients with home enteral nutrition (HEN. Study objectives: To determine baseline KI and its 6-month evolution in HEN patients, and to assess its relation with the mortality rate. Methodology: Observational and prospective study carried out during 2002 and 2003 with tube feeding neurologic and cancer patients followed during 10 months since their HEN programme inclusion. Results: 201 patients were included, 131 (65.2% with neurological diseases and 70 (34.8% with neoplasm. There were not significant differences between groups in age, days with HEN and

  1. Comparison of artificial neural network and logistic regression models for prediction of mortality in head trauma based on initial clinical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghodsi Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, outcome prediction models using artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression analysis have been developed in many areas of health care research. Both these methods have advantages and disadvantages. In this study we have compared the performance of artificial neural network and multivariable logistic regression models, in prediction of outcomes in head trauma and studied the reproducibility of the findings. Methods 1000 Logistic regression and ANN models based on initial clinical data related to the GCS, tracheal intubation status, age, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, pulse rate, injury severity score and the outcome of 1271 mainly head injured patients were compared in this study. For each of one thousand pairs of ANN and logistic models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. Results ANN significantly outperformed logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but under performed in accuracy. In 77.8% of cases the area under the ROC curves and in 56.4% of cases the HL statistics for the neural network model were superior to that for the logistic model. In 68% of cases the accuracy of the logistic model was superior to the neural network model. Conclusions ANN significantly outperformed the logistic models in both fields of discrimination and calibration but lagged behind in accuracy. This study clearly showed that any single comparison between these two models might not reliably represent the true end results. External validation of the designed models, using larger databases with different rates of outcomes is necessary to get an accurate measure of performance outside the development population.

  2. Role of fecal calprotectin testing to predict relapse in teenagers with inflammatory bowel disease who report full disease control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rheenen, Patrick F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Teenagers with inflammatory bowel disease undergo regular follow-up visits to watch for symptoms that may indicate relapse. Current disease activity is frequently estimated with the use of the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI) and the Pediatric Crohn's Disease Activity

  3. Mortality table construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2015-12-01

    Mortality tables play important role in actuarial studies such as life annuities, premium determination, premium reserve, valuation pension plan, pension funding. Some known mortality tables are CSO mortality table, Indonesian Mortality Table, Bowers mortality table, Japan Mortality table. For actuary applications some tables are constructed with different environment such as single decrement, double decrement, and multiple decrement. There exist two approaches in mortality table construction : mathematics approach and statistical approach. Distribution model and estimation theory are the statistical concepts that are used in mortality table construction. This article aims to discuss the statistical approach in mortality table construction. The distributional assumptions are uniform death distribution (UDD) and constant force (exponential). Moment estimation and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the mortality parameter. Moment estimation methods are easier to manipulate compared to maximum likelihood estimation (mle). However, the complete mortality data are not used in moment estimation method. Maximum likelihood exploited all available information in mortality estimation. Some mle equations are complicated and solved using numerical methods. The article focus on single decrement estimation using moment and maximum likelihood estimation. Some extension to double decrement will introduced. Simple dataset will be used to illustrated the mortality estimation, and mortality table.

  4. Excess mortality in hyperthyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelm Brandt Kristensen, Frans; Pedersen, Dorthe Almind; Christensen, Kaare; Green, Anders; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

    2012-01-01

    Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding.......Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding....

  5. Can Fecal Calprotectin Level Be Used as a Markers of Inflammation in the Diagnosis and Follow-Up of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancak, Selim; Erkan, Tülay; Kutlu, Tufan; Çokuğraş, Haluk; Çokuğraş, Fügen Ç.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Calprotectin is a cytosolic protein with immunomodulatory, antimicrobial, and antiproliferative actions. The concentration of calprotectin increases in infection, inflammation, and malignancy. We determined if calprotectin can be used as a marker for the diagnosis and follow-up of bowel inflammation in cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Methods In total, 32 patients newly diagnosed with CMPA were included (24 IgE-mediated, 8 non-IgE-mediated). In all subjects, a complete blood count, total IgE, cow's milk-specific IgE, and fecal calprotectin (FC) were assessed before and after a cow's milk protein (CMP) elimination diet was started. The results were compared with those of 39 healthy children. Results The mean FC value before the CMP elimination diet was 516±311 µg/g in the 32 patients with CMPA and 296±94 µg/g in the control group (P=0.011). The mean FC value after the diet in these patients was 254±169 µg/g, which was significantly different from the mean value before the CMP elimination diet (P<0.001). When we compared FC levels before the CMP elimination diet in the IgE-mediated group with the control group, we found no significant statistical difference (P=0.142). The mean FC value before the CMP elimination diet was 886±278 µg/g in the non-IgE-mediated group and 296±94 µg/g in the control group; this difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). In the IgE-mediated and non-IgE-mediated groups, FC values after CMP elimination diet were 218±90 µg/g and 359±288 µg/g, respectively, and FC values before CMP elimination diet were 392±209 µg/g and 886±278 µg/g, respectively; these differences were statistically significant (P=0.001 and P=0.025, respectively). Conclusions FC levels may be a useful marker for follow-up treatment and recurrence determination in CMPA. PMID:24404391

  6. Mortality after shoulder arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Alexander; Rasmussen, Jeppe Vejlgaard; Olsen, Bo Sanderhoff;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The primary aim was to quantify the 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates after primary shoulder replacement. The secondary aims were to assess the association between mortality and diagnoses and to compare the mortality rate with that of the general population. METHODS: The stud...

  7. [Mortality. The behavior of mortality through 1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, R

    1988-01-01

    Mexico's crude death rate has declined from 33/1000 in the early 20th century to about 6/1000 in 1985-87. Mortality declined sharply from 1640-60. more slowly from 1960-77, and rapidly again beginning around 1980. The explanation for the mortality decline lies both in advances in medical and health care and in economic growth of the country. The mortality declines in the late 1970s and early 1980s probably resulted primarily from extension of primary health care programs in rural areas. The infant mortality rate has declined from 288.6/1000 live births in 1900 to 73.8 in 1960 and 42 in 1986-87. At present 30% of deaths in Mexico are to children under 5, but little is known of the impact of the country's economic crisis on mortality in this age group. The strong mortality decline between 1950-70 was in the economically active age group of 15-64 years. Excess male mortality in this group reached a maximum in 1980: for each death of woman there were 150 male deaths. Between 1960-80 the rate of deaths due to infection, parasfitism, and respiratory disease declined by 5%, the rate of death from cancer remained almost unchanged, and the rate of death from cardiovascular diseases increased by 9%. Deaths from accidents, homicide, suicide, and other violence increased by 38%. Male general mortality rates were 25% higher than female in 1980. Mexican life expectancy increased from 49.6 years in 195 to 67 in 1987. Life expectancy was 65.6 for males and 71.7 for females. Average life expectancy was 69 for the more privileged social sectors and 56.7 for agricultural workers in 1965-79. The life expectancy of urban women was 3 years longer than that of rural women and 10.4 years longer than that of rural men. PMID:12158030

  8. Mortality of marine planktonic copepods : global rates and patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirst, A.G.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    adult copepod longevity with predation-free laboratory longevity, we are able to make the first global approximations of the natural rates of predation mortality. Predation and total mortality both increase with increasing temperature; however, the proportion that predation makes of total adult......Using life history theory we make predictions of mortality rates in marine epi-pelagic copepods from field estimates of adult fecundity, development times and adult sex ratios. Predicted mortality increases with temperature in both broadcast and sac spawning copepods, and declines with body weight...... mortality is independent of ambient temperature, on average accounting for around 2/3 to 3/4 of the total....

  9. Predictive ability of subjective global assessment on the mortality of elderly hemodialysis patients%SGA评分对尿毒症血液透析患者死亡的预测效果

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘兆云; 青松; 杨晶晶; 吴春林; 李杰

    2015-01-01

    Objective To compare the predictive ability of the different methods of nutritional assessment on the mortality of elderly hemodialysis patients. Methods A total of 130 hemodialysis patients, who were treated in our hospital from Jun. 2003 to Jun. 2011, were included in this study. Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Malnutri-tion Inflammation Score (MIS) and Short-form Mini-nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF) were used to assess the nutrition in the elderly patients. They were divided into and good nutrition group according to the SGA or MNA-SF and followed up for 36 months. Death or end of the trail was the endpoint of study. K-M and Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to determine the predictive ability of the three methods of nutritional assessment on the mortality of the pa-tients. Results K-M survival analysis showed that the mortality in the malnutrition group was higher than that in the good nutrition group. When grouping was done according to the MIS, there was no significant difference in mortality be-tween malnutrition and good nutrition group. Cox regression analysis results showed that, after adjusting for age, cardio-vascular disease, phosphorus, PTH and other factors, SGA was the independent predictor of death of patients (OR=8.622, P=0.042). Results of MNA-SF had no independent correlation with the death of patients. Conclusion The pre-dictive ability of SGA on the mortality of the elderly MHD patients is precede of the MIS and the MNA-F. SGA as overall nutritional assessment method may be more appropriate for the nutritional assessment of elderly hemodialysis patients.%目的:比较不同营养评估法对尿毒症血液透析患者死亡的预测作用。方法纳入2003年6月至2011年6月的患者130例,收集一般资料,对其进行随访调查及生化指标检测,分别计算主观全面营养评估(SGA)、营养不良-炎症评分(MIS)及微型营养评估简表(MNA-SF)评分。前瞻性随访至2014年6月,以患者死亡

  10. [Mortality and morbidity in surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banke, A.B.; Andersen, Jakob Steen; Heslet, L.; Johansson, P.I.; Shahidi, S.

    2008-01-01

    Care Unit's (ICU) Critical Information System, a blood bank and the database of a vascular surgery unit. RESULTS: The perioperative mortality was 8%, ICU mortality 22%, postoperative mortality 33% and 30-day mortality 39%. The ICU mortality for patients with renal failure and septic shock was...... significantly higher than the overall ICU mortality. The ICU mortality and morbidity increased with the amount of postoperative blood loss. Patients with an initial serum creatinine concentration of <0.100 mmol/l had a 30-day mortality that was lower than that of patients with a higher initial serum creatinine...... concentration. CONCLUSION: The treatment of patients with rAAA at RH is comparable to leading clinical practice results. Postoperative bleeding, septic shock and renal failure are identified as predictive factors for increased ICU mortality and morbidity, for which reason future monitoring and postoperative r...

  11. Research advances in the role of fecal calprotectin in intestinal development and diseases among children%粪钙卫蛋白与儿童肠道发育及疾病相关性的研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李锋(综述); 盛晓阳(审校)

    2014-01-01

    Calprotectin is a calcium-and zinc-binding protein of the S100 family expressed mainly by neutrophils with important extracellular activity. This paper reviews current findings concerning the relationship between faecal calprotectin and intestinal development among children, inlfuencing factors of fecal calprotectin and the implication of faecal calprotectin in the diagnosis, follow-up, assessment of relapses, and response to treatment in pediatric intestinal diseases, such as necrotizing enterocolitis, inlfammatory bowel disease, intestinal infection, celiac disease and allergy. Further studies are required to provide insights into the actual role of calprotectin in physiological and pathological processes in pediatrics.%钙卫蛋白是S100蛋白家族中的一种钙、锌结合蛋白,由中性粒细胞表达具有重要的细胞外功能。该文综述了粪钙卫蛋白与儿童肠道发育的相关性及影响因素,以及粪钙卫蛋白在儿童肠道病理状态下如坏死性小肠结肠炎、炎症性肠病、肠道感染、乳糜泻、过敏等疾病的诊断、随访、复发的评估及治疗的反应程度上的应用进展。进一步的研究还需要深入了解粪钙卫蛋白在儿科生理及病理过程中的实际作用。

  12. Identification of an Acinetobacter baumannii zinc acquisition system that facilitates resistance to calprotectin-mediated zinc sequestration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Indriati Hood

    Full Text Available Acinetobacter baumannii is an important nosocomial pathogen that accounts for up to 20 percent of infections in intensive care units worldwide. Furthermore, A. baumannii strains have emerged that are resistant to all available antimicrobials. These facts highlight the dire need for new therapeutic strategies to combat this growing public health threat. Given the critical role for transition metals at the pathogen-host interface, interrogating the role for these metals in A. baumannii physiology and pathogenesis could elucidate novel therapeutic strategies. Toward this end, the role for calprotectin- (CP-mediated chelation of manganese (Mn and zinc (Zn in defense against A. baumannii was investigated. These experiments revealed that CP inhibits A. baumannii growth in vitro through chelation of Mn and Zn. Consistent with these in vitro data, Imaging Mass Spectrometry revealed that CP accompanies neutrophil recruitment to the lung and accumulates at foci of infection in a murine model of A. baumannii pneumonia. CP contributes to host survival and control of bacterial replication in the lung and limits dissemination to secondary sites. Using CP as a probe identified an A. baumannii Zn acquisition system that contributes to Zn uptake, enabling this organism to resist CP-mediated metal chelation, which enhances pathogenesis. Moreover, evidence is provided that Zn uptake across the outer membrane is an energy-dependent process in A. baumannii. Finally, it is shown that Zn limitation reverses carbapenem resistance in multidrug resistant A. baumannii underscoring the clinical relevance of these findings. Taken together, these data establish Zn acquisition systems as viable therapeutic targets to combat multidrug resistant A. baumannii infections.

  13. Clinicians’ guide to the use of fecal calprotectin to identify and monitor disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressler, Brian; Panaccione, Remo; Fedorak, Richard N; Seidman, Ernest G

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Objective monitoring of the severity of inflammation in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an essential part of disease management. However, repeat endoscopy to define extent and severity of inflammation is not practical. Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a biomarker that can be used as a surrogate test to distinguish inflammatory from noninflammatory gastrointestinal disease. METHODS: A targeted search of the literature regarding FC, focusing primarily on the past three years, was conducted to develop practical clinical guidance on the current utility of FC in the routine management of IBD patients. RESULTS: It is recommended that samples for FC testing be obtained from the first bowel excretion of the day. FC testing should be used as standard of care to accurately confirm inflammation and ‘real-time’ disease activity when a clinician suspects an IBD flare. Although FC is a reliable marker of inflammation, its role in routine monitoring in improving long-term outcomes has not yet been fully assessed. Based on available evidence, the authors suggest the following cut-off values and management strategies: when FC levels are 100 μg/g to 250 μg/g, inflammation is possible and further testing (eg, colonoscopy) is required to confirm inflammation; and when FC levels are >250 μg/g, active inflammation is likely and strategies to control inflammation should be initiated (eg, optimizing current therapies or switching to an alternative therapy). DISCUSSION: FC is a useful biomarker to accurately assess the degree of inflammation and should be incorporated into the management of patients with IBD. PMID:26125109

  14. Research advances of fecal calprotectin in intestinal diseases%粪便钙卫蛋白与肠道疾病相关性的研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高翠云

    2015-01-01

    钙卫蛋白是S100蛋白家族中的一种钙、锌结合蛋白,由中性粒细胞表达,具有重要的细胞外功能.该文综述了粪便钙卫蛋白在肠道病理状态下如炎症性肠病、肠道肿瘤、坏死性小肠结肠炎、过敏相关性肠病等疾病的变化,以及对这类疾病在诊断、复发的评估及治疗的反应程度上的应用价值.%Calprotectin is a calcium-and zinc-binding protein of the S100 family expressed mainly by neutrophils with important extracellular activity.This paper reviews current findings about the implication of faecal calprotectin in the diagnosis, follow-up, assessment of relapses, and response to treatment in intestinaldiseases, such as inflammatory bowel disease, intestinal tumor, necrotizing enterocolitis, allergy and intestinal infection.

  15. Evaluation of Crohn's disease activity: Initial validation of a magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) against faecal calprotectin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makanyanga, Jesica C.; Dikaios, Nikolaos [University College London, Centre for Medical Imaging, London (United Kingdom); Pendse, Doug; Atkins, Elaine; Cuthbertson, Terry [University College London Hospitals, Department of Specialist Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Bloom, Stuart; McCartney, Sara; Forbes, Alastair [University College London Hospitals, Department of Gastroenterology, London (United Kingdom); Helbren, Emma; Punwani, Shonit; Halligan, Steve; Taylor, Stuart A. [University College London, Centre for Medical Imaging, London (United Kingdom); University College London Hospitals, Department of Specialist Radiology, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-02-15

    To develop an MRI enterography global score (MEGS) of Crohn's disease (CD) activity compared with a reference standard of faecal calprotectin (fC), C-reactive protein (CRP) and Harvey-Bradshaw index (HBI). Calprotectin, CRP and HBI were prospectively recorded for 71 patients (median age 33, male 35) with known/suspected CD undergoing MRI enterography. Two observers in consensus scored activity for nine bowel segments, grading mural thickness, T2 signal, mesenteric oedema, T1 enhancement and pattern, and haustral loss. Segmental scores were multiplied according to disease length. Five points each were added for lymphadenopathy, comb sign, fistulae and abscesses to derive the MEGS. A previously validated MRI CD activity score (CDAS) was also calculated. MRI scores were correlated with clinical references using Spearman's rank. A logistic regression diagnostic model was built to discriminate active (fC > 100 μg/g) from inactive disease. MEGS and CDAS were significantly correlated with fC (r = 0.46, P < 0.001) and (r = 0.39, P = 0.001) respectively. MEGS correlated with CRP (r = 0.39, P = 0.002). The model for discriminating active from inactive disease achieved an area under the receiver-operating curve of 0.75 and 0.66 after leave-one-out analysis. A magnetic resonance enterography global score (MEGS) of CD activity correlated significantly with fC levels. (orig.)

  16. Therapeutic Efficacy of pH-Dependent Release Formulation of Mesalazine on Active Ulcerative Colitis Resistant to Time-Dependent Release Formulation: Analysis of Fecal Calprotectin Concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawashima, Kousaku; Ishihara, Shunji; Yuki, Takafumi; Onishi, Koji; Kushiyama, Yoshinori; Miyaoka, Youichi; Yuki, Mika; Komazawa, Yoshinori; Tanimura, Takashi; Sonoyama, Hiroki; Tada, Yasumasa; Kusunoki, Ryusaku; Fukuba, Nobuhiko; Oshima, Naoki; Moriyama, Ichiro; Kinoshita, Yoshikazu

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. Few reports have compared the clinical efficacy of a pH-dependent release formulation of mesalazine (pH-5-ASA) with a time-dependent release formulation (time-5-ASA). We examined whether pH-5-ASA is effective for active ulcerative colitis (UC) in patients resistant to time-5-ASA. Methods. We retrospectively and prospectively analyzed the efficacy of pH-5-ASA in mildly to moderately active UC patients in whom time-5-ASA did not successfully induce or maintain remission. The clinical efficacy of pH-5-ASA was assessed by clinical activity index (CAI) before and after switching from time-5-ASA. In addition, the efficacy of pH-5-ASA on mucosal healing (MH) was evaluated in a prospective manner by measuring fecal calprotectin concentration. Results. Thirty patients were analyzed in a retrospective manner. CAI was significantly reduced at both 4 and 8 weeks after switching to pH-5-ASA. In the prospective study (n = 14), administration of pH-5-ASA also significantly reduced CAI scores at 4 and 8 weeks in these patients who were resistant to time-5-ASA. In addition, fecal calprotectin concentration was significantly decreased along with improvement in CAI after switching to pH-5-ASA. Conclusions. Our results suggest that pH-5-ASA has clinical efficacy for mildly to moderately active patients with UC in whom time-5-ASA did not successfully induce or maintain remission. PMID:25478568

  17. Therapeutic Efficacy of pH-Dependent Release Formulation of Mesalazine on Active Ulcerative Colitis Resistant to Time-Dependent Release Formulation: Analysis of Fecal Calprotectin Concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kousaku Kawashima

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Few reports have compared the clinical efficacy of a pH-dependent release formulation of mesalazine (pH-5-ASA with a time-dependent release formulation (time-5-ASA. We examined whether pH-5-ASA is effective for active ulcerative colitis (UC in patients resistant to time-5-ASA. Methods. We retrospectively and prospectively analyzed the efficacy of pH-5-ASA in mildly to moderately active UC patients in whom time-5-ASA did not successfully induce or maintain remission. The clinical efficacy of pH-5-ASA was assessed by clinical activity index (CAI before and after switching from time-5-ASA. In addition, the efficacy of pH-5-ASA on mucosal healing (MH was evaluated in a prospective manner by measuring fecal calprotectin concentration. Results. Thirty patients were analyzed in a retrospective manner. CAI was significantly reduced at both 4 and 8 weeks after switching to pH-5-ASA. In the prospective study (n=14, administration of pH-5-ASA also significantly reduced CAI scores at 4 and 8 weeks in these patients who were resistant to time-5-ASA. In addition, fecal calprotectin concentration was significantly decreased along with improvement in CAI after switching to pH-5-ASA. Conclusions. Our results suggest that pH-5-ASA has clinical efficacy for mildly to moderately active patients with UC in whom time-5-ASA did not successfully induce or maintain remission.

  18. B-type natriuretic peptide and high sensitive C-reactive protein predict 2-year all cause mortality in chest pain patients: a prospective observational study from Salta, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarsland Torbjoern

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several mechanisms are involved in the pathophysiology of the Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS. We have addressed whether B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP in admission samples may improve risk stratification in chest pain patients with suspected ACS. Methods We included 982 patients consecutively admitted with chest pain and suspected ACS at nine hospitals in Salta, Northern Argentina. Total and cardiac mortality were recorded during a 2-year follow up period. Patients were divided into quartiles according to BNP and hsCRP levels, respectively, and inter quartile differences in mortality were statistically evaluated applying univariate and multivariate analyses. Results 119 patients died, and the BNP and hsCRP levels were significantly higher among these patients than in survivors. In a multivariable Cox regression model for total death and cardiac death in all patients, the hazard ratio (HR in the highest quartile (Q4 as compared to the lowest quartile (Q1 of BNP was 2.32 (95% confidence interval (CI, 1.24-4.35, p = 0.009 and 3.34 (95% CI, 1.26-8.85, p = 0.015, respectively. In the TnT positive patients (TnT > 0.01 ng/mL, the HR for total death and cardiac death in Q4 as compared to Q1 was 2.12 (95% CI, 1.07-4.18, p = 0.031 and 3.42 (95% CI, 1.13-10.32, p = 0.029, respectively. The HR for total death for hsCRP in Q4 as compared to Q1 was 1.97 (95% CI, 1.17-3.32, p = 0.011, but this biomarker did not predict cardiac death (p = 0.21. No prognostic impact of these two biomarkers was found in the TnT negative patients. Conclusion BNP and hsCRP may act as clinically useful biomarkers when obtained at admission in a population with suspected ACS. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01377402.

  19. Estimating hospital service areas using mortality statistics.

    OpenAIRE

    Carpenter, E S; Plessas, D. J.

    1985-01-01

    This article reports research testing an alternative methodology for patient origin studies that uses hospital deaths as a proxy measure for all discharges from a selected group of urban tertiary hospitals. Results indicated that mortality data from vital statistics records provide a reasonable approximation of patient travel patterns to acute care hospitals. Hospital service area indexes constructed from mortality statistics accurately predicted, on an aggregate regional basis, the results o...

  20. A Genetic Analysis of Mortality in Pigs

    OpenAIRE

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    An analysis of mortality is undertaken in two breeds of pigs: Danish Landrace and Yorkshire. Zero-inflated and standard versions of hierarchical Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial Bayesian models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The objectives of the study were to investigate whether there is support for genetic variation for mortality and to study the quality of fit and predictive properties of the various models. In both breeds, the model that provided the best fit t...

  1. Urban tree mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Roman, Lara Angelica

    2013-01-01

    Urban forests have aesthetic, environmental, human health, and economic benefits that motivate tree planting programs. Realizing these benefits depends on tree survival. Cost-benefit analyses for urban forest ecosystem services are sensitive to mortality rate assumptions and associated population projections. However, long-term mortality data is needed to assess the accuracy of these assumptions. Analytical tools from demography, such as life tables, mortality curves, and survival analysis, c...

  2. Triage and mortality in 2875 consecutive trauma patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meisler, Rikke; Thomsen, A B; Abildstrøm, H;

    2010-01-01

    Most studies on trauma and trauma systems have been conducted in the United States. We aimed to describe the factors predicting mortality in European trauma patients, with focus on triage.......Most studies on trauma and trauma systems have been conducted in the United States. We aimed to describe the factors predicting mortality in European trauma patients, with focus on triage....

  3. Mechanical vulnerability explains size-dependent mortality of reef corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Baird, Andrew H; Dornelas, Maria; Connolly, Sean R

    2014-01-01

    Understanding life history and demographic variation among species within communities is a central ecological goal. Mortality schedules are especially important in ecosystems where disturbance plays a major role in structuring communities, such as coral reefs. Here, we test whether a trait-based, mechanistic model of mechanical vulnerability in corals can explain mortality schedules. Specifically, we ask whether species that become increasingly vulnerable to hydrodynamic dislodgment as they grow have bathtub-shaped mortality curves, whereas species that remain mechanically stable have decreasing mortality rates with size, as predicted by classical life history theory for reef corals. We find that size-dependent mortality is highly consistent between species with the same growth form and that the shape of size-dependent mortality for each growth form can be explained by mechanical vulnerability. Our findings highlight the feasibility of predicting assemblage-scale mortality patterns on coral reefs with trait-based approaches. PMID:24894390

  4. Continuing the search for a fundamental law of mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Olshansky, S.J. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)

    1997-08-01

    For 170 years, scientists have attempted to explain why consistent temporal patterns of death are observed among individuals within populations. Historical efforts to identify a {open_quotes}law of mortality{close_quotes} from these patterns ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These empirical tests for a law of mortality were constructed using mortality curves based on all causes of death. We predicted that patterns of mortality consistent with the historical concept of a law would be revealed if mortality curves for species were constructed using only senescent causes of death. Using data on senescent mortality for laboratory animals and humans, we demonstrate that patterns of mortality overlap when compared on a biologically comparable time scale. These results are consistent with the existence of a law of mortality following sexual maturity as asserted by Benjamin Gompertz and Raymond Pearl. The societal, medical, and research implications of such a law are discussed.

  5. Continuing the search for a fundamental law of mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Olshansky, S.J. [Chicago Univ., IL (United States)

    1996-03-01

    for 170 years, scientists have attempted to explain why consistent temporal patterns of death are observed among individuals within populations. Historical efforts to identify a `law of mortality` from these patterns ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These empirical tests for a law of mortality were constructed using mortality curves based on all causes of death. We predicted patterns of mortality consistent with the historical concept of a law would be revealed if mortality curves for species were constructed using only senescent causes of death. Using data on senescent mortality for laboratory animals and humans, we demonstrate patterns of mortality overlap when compared on a biologically comparable time scale. The results are consistent with the existence of a law of mortality following sexual maturity. The societal, medical, and research implications of such a law are discussed.

  6. Expression and function of S100A8/A9 (calprotectin in human typhoid fever and the murine Salmonella model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna K De Jong

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Typhoid fever, caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, is a major cause of community-acquired bacteremia and death worldwide. S100A8 (MRP8 and S100A9 (MRP14 form bioactive antimicrobial heterodimers (calprotectin that can activate Toll-like receptor 4, promoting lethal, endotoxin-induced shock and multi-organ failure. We aimed to characterize the expression and function of S100A8/A9 in patients with typhoid fever and in a murine invasive Salmonella model.S100A8/A9 protein levels were determined in acute phase plasma or feces from 28 Bangladeshi patients, and convalescent phase plasma from 60 Indonesian patients with blood culture or PCR-confirmed typhoid fever, and compared to 98 healthy control subjects. To functionally characterize the role of S100A8/A9, we challenged wildtype (WT and S100A9-/- mice with S. Typhimurium and determined bacterial loads and inflammation 2- and 5- days post infection. We further assessed the antimicrobial function of recombinant S100A8/A9 on S. Typhimurium and S. Typhi replication in vitro. Typhoid fever patients demonstrated a marked increase of S100A8/A9 in acute phase plasma and feces and this increases correlated with duration of fever prior to admission. S100A8/A9 directly inhibited the growth of S. Typhimurium and S. Typhi in vitro in a dose and time dependent fashion. WT mice inoculated with S. Typhimurium showed increased levels of S100A8/A9 in both the liver and the systemic compartment but S100A9-/- mice were indistinguishable from WT mice with respect to bacterial growth, survival, and inflammatory responses, as determined by cytokine release, histopathology and organ injury.S100A8/A9 is markedly elevated in human typhoid, correlates with duration of fever prior to admission and directly inhibits the growth of S. Typhimurium and S. Typhi in vitro. Despite elevated levels in the murine invasive Salmonella model, S100A8/A9 does not contribute to an effective host response

  7. Disentangling trait-based mortality in species with decoupled size and age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Farrell, Shay; Salguero-Gomez, Roberto; van Rooij, Jules M.; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    Size and age are fundamental organismal traits, and typically, both are good predictors of mortality. For many species, however, size and age predict mortality in ontogenetically opposing directions. Specifically, mortality due to predation is often more intense on smaller individuals whereas mortal

  8. Mortality in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    Although the general trend in mortality between 1950 and 1975 in South and East Asia has been downward, there is considerable country-to-country variation in the rate of decline. In countries where combined economic, social, and political circumstances resulted in controlling the disease spectrum (e.g., China, Malaysia, Sri Lanka), mortality levels declined to those seen in low-mortality countries. In most of the large countries of the region however, mortality declined at a slower rate, even slowing down considerably in the 1970's while the death rates remained high (e.g., India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Philippines); this slowing down of mortality level is attributed essentially to the poverty-stricken masses of society which were not able to take advantage of social, technological, and health-promoting behavioral changes conducive to mortality decline. Infant mortality levels, although declining since 1950, followed the same dismal pattern of the general mortality level. The rate varies from less than 10/1000 live births (Japan) to more than 140/1000 (Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal). Generally, rural areas exhibited higher infant mortality than urban areas. The level of child mortality declines with increases in the mother's educational level in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The largest decline in child mortality occurs when at least 1 parent has secondary education. The premature retardation of mortality decline is caused by several factors: economic development, nutrition and food supply, provision and adequacy of health services, and demographic trends. The outlook for the year 2000 for most of Asia's countries will depend heavily on significant population increases. In most countries, particularly in South Asia, population is expected to increase by 75%, much of it in rural areas and among poorer socioeconomic groups. In view of this, Asia's health planners and policymakers will have to develop health policies which will strike a balance

  9. Increased mortality among people with anxiety disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Sandra M; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mors, Ole;

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders and depression are the most common mental disorders worldwide and have a striking impact on global disease burden. Although depression has consistently been found to increase mortality; the role of anxiety disorders in predicting mortality risk is unclear. AIMS: To...... assess mortality risk in people with anxiety disorders. METHOD: We used nationwide Danish register data to conduct a prospective cohort study with over 30 million person-years of follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 1066 (2.1%) people with anxiety disorders died during an average follow-up of 9.7 years. The...... risk of death by natural and unnatural causes was significantly higher among individuals with anxiety disorders (natural mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 1.39, 95% CI 1.28-1.51; unnatural MRR = 2.46, 95% CI 2.20-2.73) compared with the general population. Of those who died from unnatural causes, 16.5% had...

  10. Herd factors associated with dairy cow mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnel, C; Lombard, J; Wagner, B; Kopral, C; Garry, F

    2015-08-01

    Summary studies of dairy cow removal indicate increasing levels of mortality over the past several decades. This poses a serious problem for the US dairy industry. The objective of this project was to evaluate associations between facilities, herd management practices, disease occurrence and death rates on US dairy operations through an analysis of the National Animal Health Monitoring System's Dairy 2007 survey. The survey included farms in 17 states that represented 79.5% of US dairy operations and 82.5% of the US dairy cow population. During the first phase of the study operations were randomly selected from a sampling list maintained by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Only farms that participated in phase I and had 30 or more dairy cows were eligible to participate in phase II. In total, 459 farms had complete data for all selected variables and were included in this analysis. Univariable associations between dairy cow mortality and 162 a priori identified operation-level management practices or characteristics were evaluated. Sixty of the 162 management factors explored in the univariate analysis met initial screening criteria and were further evaluated in a multivariable model exploring more complex relationships. The final weighted, negative binomial regression model included six variables. Based on the incidence rate ratio, this model predicted 32.0% less mortality for operations that vaccinated heifers for at least one of the following: bovine viral diarrhea, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, parainfluenza 3, bovine respiratory syncytial virus, Haemophilus somnus, leptospirosis, Salmonella, Escherichia coli or clostridia. The final multivariable model also predicted a 27.0% increase in mortality for operations from which a bulk tank milk sample tested ELISA positive for bovine leukosis virus. Additionally, an 18.0% higher mortality was predicted for operations that used necropsies to determine the cause of death for some proportion of dead

  11. Maternal mortality in Sirur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrotri, A; Pratinidhi, A; Shah, U

    1990-01-01

    The research aim was 1) to determine the incidence of maternal mortality in a rural health center area in Sirur, Maharashtra state, India; 2) to determine the relative risk; and 3) to make suggestions about reducing maternal mortality. The data on deliveries was obtained between 1981 and 1984. Medical care at the Rural Training Center was supervised by the Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, the B.J. Medical College in Pune. Deliveries numbered 5994 singleton births over the four years; 5919 births were live births. 15 mothers died: 14 after delivery and 1 predelivery. The maternal mortality rate was 2.5/1000 live births. The maternal causes of death included 9 direct obstetric causes, 3 from postpartum hemorrhage of anemic women, and 3 from puerperal sepsis of anemic women with prolonged labor. 2 deaths were due to eclampsia, and 1 death was unexplained. There were 5 (33.3%) maternal deaths due to indirect causes (3 from hepatitis and 2 from thrombosis). One woman died of undetermined causes. Maternal jaundice during pregnancy was associated with the highest relative risk of maternal death: 106.4. Other relative risk factors were edema, anemia, and prolonged labor. Attributable risk was highest for anemia, followed by jaundice, edema, and maternal age of over 30 years. Maternal mortality at 30 years and older was 3.9/1000 live births. Teenage maternal mortality was 3.3/1000. Maternal mortality among women 20-29 years old was lowest at 2.1/1000. Maternal mortality for women with a parity of 5 or higher was 3.6/1000. Prima gravida women had a maternal mortality rate of 2.9/1000. Parities between 1 and 4 had a maternal mortality rate of 2.3/1000. The lowest maternal mortality was at parity of 3. Only 1 woman who died had received more than 3 prenatal visits. 11 out of 13 women medically examined prenatally were identified with the following risk factors: jaundice, edema, anemia, young or old maternal age, parity, or poor obstetric history. The local

  12. A fermented formula in pre-term infants: clinical tolerance, gut microbiota, down-regulation of faecal calprotectin and up-regulation of faecal secretory IgA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campeotto, Florence; Suau, Antonia; Kapel, Nathalie; Magne, Fabien; Viallon, Vivian; Ferraris, Laurent; Waligora-Dupriet, Anne-Judith; Soulaines, Pascale; Leroux, Bernard; Kalach, Nicolas; Dupont, Christophe; Butel, Marie-José

    2011-06-28

    Intestinal bacterial colonisation in pre-term infants is delayed compared with full-term infants, leading to an increased risk of gastrointestinal disease. Modulation of colonisation through dietary supplementation with probiotics or prebiotics could decrease such a risk. The present study evaluated clinical tolerance, the effects on gut microbiota, and inflammatory and immunological mucosal responses to an infant formula adapted for pre-term infants that included in its manufacturing process a fermentation step with two probiotic strains, Bifidobacterium breve C50 and Streptococcus thermophilus 065, inactivated by heat at the end of the process. A total of fifty-eight infants (gestational age: 30-35 weeks), fed either the fermented pre-term formula or a standard pre-term formula, were followed up during their hospital stay. Clinical tolerance, faecal microbiota using a culture and a culture-independent method (temporal temperature gel electrophoresis), faecal calprotectin and secretory IgA were analysed weekly. No difference was observed regarding anthropometric data and digestive tolerance, except for abdominal distension, the incidence of which was lower in infants fed the fermented formula for 2 weeks. Bacterial colonisation was not modified by the type of feeding, particularly for bifidobacteria. Faecal calprotectin was significantly lower in infants fed the fermented formula for 2 weeks, and secretory IgA increased with both mother's milk and the fermented formula. The fermented formula was well tolerated and did not significantly modulate the bacterial colonisation but had benefits on inflammatory and immune markers, which might be related to some features of gastrointestinal tolerance. PMID:21426607

  13. Infant Mortality and African Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... African American > Infant Heath & Mortality Infant Mortality and African Americans African Americans have 2.2 times the infant mortality rate ... birthweight as compared to non-Hispanic white infants. African Americans had almost twice the sudden infant death syndrome ...

  14. Auditing perioperative mortality.

    OpenAIRE

    Deans, G. T.; Odling-Smee, W; McKelvey, S T; Parks, G. T.; Roy, D. A.

    1987-01-01

    An audit of mortality following operation was performed over ten years classifying deaths into those that were 'expected' and 'unexpected'. 'Unexpected' deaths were defined as those in which, after careful consideration of the prevailing clinical circumstances at the time of operation, the probability of death following operation was felt to be low. This definition is a more helpful assessment of surgical performance than overall perioperative mortality as it highlights cases where improvemen...

  15. The value of fecal calprotectin in diagnosis of ulcerative colitis%粪便钙卫蛋白在溃疡性结肠炎诊断中的作用价值

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    白青山; 韩明子; 金世柱

    2012-01-01

    溃疡性结肠炎( ulcerative colitis,UC)是常见的肠道疾病.目前的诊断主要依靠肠镜,但是肠镜检查患者要承受一定的痛苦.本文对最新的检测指标钙卫蛋白( calprotectin,CP)在UC诊断中的作用作一综述.%Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a common intestinal disease. The current diagnosis mainly rely on colonoscopy, but during the colonoscopy check, patients suffered from pain. In this artical, we will review the latest testing index that calprotectin( CP) plays a role in the diagnosis of UC.

  16. Hopelessly Mortal: The Role of Mortality Salience, Immortality and Trait Self-esteem in Personal Hope

    OpenAIRE

    Wisman, Arnaud; Heflick, Nathan A

    2015-01-01

    Do people lose hope when thinking about death? Based on Terror Management Theory, we predicted that thoughts of death (i.e., mortality salience) would reduce personal hope for people low, but not high, in self-esteem, and that this reduction in hope would be ameliorated by promises of immortality. In Studies 1 and 2, mortality salience reduced personal hope for people low in self-esteem, but not for people high in self-esteem. In Study 3, mortality salience reduced hope for people low in self...

  17. Utility of fecal calprotectin as a discriminative biomarker between ulcerative colitis and irritable bowel syndrome and its ability to be used for the assessment of the remission stage of ulcerative colitis

    OpenAIRE

    Hossam M Elsaadany; Mohammed F Almaghraby; Awatif A Edrees; Yasser M Elsherbiny; Roobina K Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Background and aim Fecal calprotectin (FC) has been proposed in recent studies as a sensitive, specific biomarker for the diagnosis of ulcerative colitis (UC). Hence, the present study sought to investigate the efficacy of FC for the diagnosis and monitoring of UC, as well as to assess the correlation of FC with other disease activity indexes. Research design and methods The present study included 96 consecutive patients who presented with lower gastrointestinal complaints. Patients ...

  18. Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period to develop a prediction model of an aggregate risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, P.; Mangin, A.; Hebel, P.; Lesne, O.; Malléa, P.

    2009-04-01

    There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The main objectives are to establish correlations between air pollution, exposure of people and reactivity of these people to this aggression, to validate a risk index built from air quality and pollen data in the area of Nice and to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index. The spatial extent of the experiment will be mainly the territory of "Alpes Maritimes". All the tasks are performed in collaboration with the "Heath-Environment Network" of the "Centre Hospitalier Universitaire" of Nice. The development of an adequate tool for observation (health index and/or indices per pathology) to understand impacts of pollution levels in an area is of utmost importance. These indexes should take into account the possible adverse effects associated with the coexistence of all the pollutants and environmental parameters. This tool must be able to inform the citizens about the levels of pollution in an adequate and understandable way but also to be used by relevant authorities to take a series of predetermined measures to protect the health of the population. This paper describes the first step to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index with a confidence interval 99% (and 95%): detection and estimation trends observed in concentrations of pollutants, emissions and mortality over the 1990-2005 period in the "Alpes Maritimes" area. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of the main pollutants, we

  19. The mortality of companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daepp, Madeleine I. G.; Hamilton, Marcus J.; West, Geoffrey B.; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.

    2015-01-01

    The firm is a fundamental economic unit of contemporary human societies. Studies on the general quantitative and statistical character of firms have produced mixed results regarding their lifespans and mortality. We examine a comprehensive database of more than 25 000 publicly traded North American companies, from 1950 to 2009, to derive the statistics of firm lifespans. Based on detailed survival analysis, we show that the mortality of publicly traded companies manifests an approximately constant hazard rate over long periods of observation. This regularity indicates that mortality rates are independent of a company's age. We show that the typical half-life of a publicly traded company is about a decade, regardless of business sector. Our results shed new light on the dynamics of births and deaths of publicly traded companies and identify some of the necessary ingredients of a general theory of firms. PMID:25833247

  20. Avoidable mortality in Lithuania.

    OpenAIRE

    Gaizauskiene, A.; Gurevicius, R

    1995-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--The study aimed to analyse avoidable mortality in Lithuania as an index of the quality of health care and to assess trends in avoidable mortality from 1970-90. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS--All deaths of Lithuanian residents aged between 0 and 64 years between 1970 and 1990 were analysed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Twenty seven per cent of all deaths in this age group were avoidable. Avoidable deaths were grouped into preventable and treatable ones. Treatable causes of death ...