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Sample records for calprotectin predicts mortality

  1. Plasma calprotectin predicts mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise J N; Haahr-Pedersen, Sune Ammentorp; Bjerre, Mette

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the predictive value of plasma calprotectin levels for mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) successfully treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).......We investigated the predictive value of plasma calprotectin levels for mortality in patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) successfully treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI)....

  2. Calprotectin - A Marker of Mortality in COPD?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgaard, Dennis B; Mygind, Lone; Titlestad, Ingrid

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Calprotectin comprises more than 45% of the cytosolic content of neutrophil granulocytes. Because pathogenesis, disease activity and disease progression in COPD are believed to be partly dependent of neutrophil driven inflammation we decided to investigate whether plasma level of calprot......Abstract Calprotectin comprises more than 45% of the cytosolic content of neutrophil granulocytes. Because pathogenesis, disease activity and disease progression in COPD are believed to be partly dependent of neutrophil driven inflammation we decided to investigate whether plasma level...... of calprotectin (p-calprotectin) was associated with all-cause mortality in patients with COPD. We measured p-calprotectin in blood samples from 460 patients with moderate to very severe COPD in stable phase. Patients were stratified into three groups according to p-calprotectin level. Outcome measure was all......-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for factors known to influence mortality using a Cox regression analysis. We found a time dependent correlation between p-calprotectin levels and mortality during the first 5 years of follow-up. Increasing levels of p-calprotectin were associated with concomitant increases...

  3. Calprotectin--a marker of mortality in COPD? Results from a prospective cohort study.

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    Holmgaard, Dennis B; Mygind, Lone H; Titlestad, Ingrid; Madsen, Hanne; Pedersen, Svend Stenvang; Mortensen, Ole H; Pedersen, Court

    2013-10-01

    Calprotectin comprises more than 45% of the cytosolic content of neutrophil granulocytes. Because pathogenesis, disease activity and disease progression in COPD are believed to be partly dependent of neutrophil driven inflammation we decided to investigate whether plasma level of calprotectin (p-calprotectin) was associated with all-cause mortality in patients with COPD. We measured p-calprotectin in blood samples from 460 patients with moderate to very severe COPD in stable phase. Patients were stratified into three groups according to p-calprotectin level. Outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Analyses were adjusted for factors known to influence mortality using a Cox regression analysis. We found a time dependent correlation between p-calprotectin levels and mortality during the first 5 years of follow-up. Increasing levels of p-calprotectin were associated with concomitant increases in mortality from HR 1.56 (CI 95%: 1.03 -2.38) at calprotectin between 100 -200 ng/ml to HR 2.02 (CI 95%: 1.27-3.19) at calprotectin >200 ng/ml. P-calprotectin could be a useful marker of all-cause mortality in patients suffering from moderate to very severe COPD.

  4. Calprotectin Increases the Activity of the SaeRS Two Component System and Murine Mortality during Staphylococcus aureus Infections.

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    Hoonsik Cho

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Calprotectin, the most abundant cytoplasmic protein in neutrophils, suppresses the growth of Staphylococcus aureus by sequestering the nutrient metal ions Zn and Mn. Here we show that calprotectin can also enhance the activity of the SaeRS two component system (TCS, a signaling system essential for production of over 20 virulence factors in S. aureus. The activity of the SaeRS TCS is repressed by certain divalent ions found in blood or neutrophil granules; however, the Zn bound-form of calprotectin relieves this repression. During staphylococcal encounter with murine neutrophils or staphylococcal infection of the murine peritoneal cavity, calprotectin increases the activity of the SaeRS TCS as well as the production of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β and TNF-α, resulting in higher murine mortality. These results suggest that, under certain conditions, calprotectin can be exploited by S. aureus to increase bacterial virulence and host mortality.

  5. Calprotectin Increases the Activity of the SaeRS Two Component System and Murine Mortality during Staphylococcus aureus Infections.

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    Cho, Hoonsik; Jeong, Do-Won; Liu, Qian; Yeo, Won-Sik; Vogl, Thomas; Skaar, Eric P; Chazin, Walter J; Bae, Taeok

    2015-07-01

    Calprotectin, the most abundant cytoplasmic protein in neutrophils, suppresses the growth of Staphylococcus aureus by sequestering the nutrient metal ions Zn and Mn. Here we show that calprotectin can also enhance the activity of the SaeRS two component system (TCS), a signaling system essential for production of over 20 virulence factors in S. aureus. The activity of the SaeRS TCS is repressed by certain divalent ions found in blood or neutrophil granules; however, the Zn bound-form of calprotectin relieves this repression. During staphylococcal encounter with murine neutrophils or staphylococcal infection of the murine peritoneal cavity, calprotectin increases the activity of the SaeRS TCS as well as the production of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β and TNF-α, resulting in higher murine mortality. These results suggest that, under certain conditions, calprotectin can be exploited by S. aureus to increase bacterial virulence and host mortality.

  6. A Novel Combination of Calprotectin and CXCL12 for Predicting Malignancy in Patients with Exudative Pleural Effusion.

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    Luo, Jian; Wang, Maoyun; Li, Chuntao; Liang, Binmiao; Liu, Dan; Shi, Chaoli; Jiang, Faming; Wang, Ting; Li, Peijun; Liang, Zongan

    2015-11-01

    Pleural effusion (PE) remains a significant challenge and public health problem, which needs novel noninvasive biomarkers for the precise diagnosis. The aim of this study was to further determine the clinical efficacy and diagnostic accuracy of a novel combination of calprotectin and CXCL12 for predicting malignancy in patients with exudative PE.Calprotectin and CXCL12 concentrations were measured in 95 individuals of exudative PE, with 39 malignant PE (MPE) and 56 benign PE (BPE). The accuracy of calprotectin and CXCL12 levels for discriminating MPE from BPE or tuberculous PE were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to test the association between calprotectin and CXCL12 levels and MPE.Calprotectin and CXCL12 levels of patients with MPE were significantly lower than that of BPE and tuberculous PE (P calprotectin and CXCL12 was 0.683 and 0.641 in MPE and BPE, and a combination of calprotectin ≤500.19 ng/mL and CXCL12 ≤6.11 ng/mL rendered a sensitivity and specificity of 48.72% and 78.57%, respectively. While in MPE and tuberculous PE, the AUC of calprotectin and CXCL12 was 0.696 and 0.690, and a combination of calprotectin ≤421.73 ng/mL and CXCL12 ≤3.71 ng/mL presented a sensitivity and specificity of 25.64% and 95.45%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that both calprotectin and CXCL12 were independent predictors of MPE.Calprotectin and CXCL12 in pleural fluid are informative diagnostic biomarkers for predicting patients with MPE.

  7. Fecal Calprotectin Predicts Relapse and Histological Mucosal Healing in Ulcerative Colitis

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    Theede, Klaus; Holck, Susanne; Ibsen, Per

    2016-01-01

    . Fecal calprotectin (FC) was measured 2 to 3 days before the sigmoidoscopy. The tissue samples were evaluated for neutrophilic inflammation. We aimed at testing the predictive performance of FC and histological inflammatory activity on disease relapse. RESULTS: A baseline FC level of more than 321 mg...

  8. Urinary calprotectin and posttransplant renal allograft injury

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    Tepel, Martin; Borst, Christoffer; Bistrup, Claus

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Current methods do not predict the acute renal allograft injury immediately after kidney transplantation. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of urinary calprotectin for predicting immediate posttransplant allograft injury. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective-cohort study of 144...... incipient renal transplant recipients, we postoperatively measured urinary calprotectin using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after 4 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months. RESULTS: We observed a significant inverse association of urinary calprotectin...... regression showed that higher urinary calprotectin concentrations and older donor age predicted lower eGFR four weeks, 6 months, and 12 months after transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary calprotectin is an early, noninvasive predictor of immediate renal allograft injury after kidney transplantation....

  9. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, calprotectin and YKL-40 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

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    Sørensen, Allan Klitgaard; Holmgaard, Dennis Back; Mygind, Lone Hagens

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by chronic inflammation and progressive decline in pulmonary function. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), YKL-40 and calprotectin are biomarkers of inflammation and predict mortality in patients with different inflammatory......- and multivariate Cox regression analyses with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Plasma calprotectin was positively correlated with neutrophil granulocyte count and NLR. No significant association was found between plasma YKL-40 and the cellular biomarkers, irrespective...... of glucocorticoid treatment. In the group not treated with systemic glucocorticoids, plasma calprotectin [HR 1.002 (95% CI 1.000 - 1.004)], NLR [HR 1.090 (1.036 - 1.148)] and lymphocyte count [HR 0.667 (0.522 - 0.851)] were significantly associated with higher mortality. In the group treated with systemic...

  10. Urinary calprotectin and posttransplant renal allograft injury.

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    Martin Tepel

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Current methods do not predict the acute renal allograft injury immediately after kidney transplantation. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of urinary calprotectin for predicting immediate posttransplant allograft injury. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective-cohort study of 144 incipient renal transplant recipients, we postoperatively measured urinary calprotectin using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR after 4 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months. RESULTS: We observed a significant inverse association of urinary calprotectin concentrations and eGFR 4 weeks after transplantation (Spearman r =  -0.33; P<0.001. Compared to the lowest quartile, patients in the highest quartile of urinary calprotectin had an increased risk for an eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m(2 four weeks after transplantation (relative risk, 4.3; P<0.001; sensitivity, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.98; specificity, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.66. Higher urinary calprotectin concentrations predicted impaired kidney function 4 weeks after transplantation, as well as 6 months and 12 months after transplantation. When data were analyzed using the urinary calprotectin/creatinine-ratio similar results were obtained. Urinary calprotectin was superior to current use of absolute change of plasma creatinine to predict allograft function 12 months after transplantation. Urinary calprotectin predicted an increased risk both in transplants from living and deceased donors. Multivariate linear regression showed that higher urinary calprotectin concentrations and older donor age predicted lower eGFR four weeks, 6 months, and 12 months after transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary calprotectin is an early, noninvasive predictor of immediate renal allograft injury after kidney transplantation.

  11. Low fecal calprotectin predicts sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease patients: a plea for deep remission

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    Mooiweer, E.; Severs, M.; Schipper, M.E.; Fidder, H.H.; Siersema, P.D.; Laheij, R.J.; Oldenburg, B.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mucosal healing has become the treatment goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Whether low fecal calprotectin levels and histological healing combined with mucosal healing is associated with a further reduced risk of relapses is unknown. METHODS

  12. Low fecal calprotectin predicts sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease patients : a plea for deep remission

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    Mooiweer, Erik; Severs, Mirjam; Schipper, Marguerite E I; Fidder, Herma H; Siersema, Peter D; Laheij, Robert J F; Oldenburg, Bas

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Mucosal healing has become the treatment goal in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). Whether low fecal calprotectin levels and histological healing combined with mucosal healing is associated with a further reduced risk of relapses is unknown. METHODS

  13. Serum Calprotectin: A Potential Biomarker for Neonatal Sepsis

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    Lidia Decembrino

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The correct diagnosis of neonatal sepsis is a relevant problem because sepsis is one of the most important causes of neonatal morbidity, mortality, and prolonged hospital stay. Calprotectin is an antimicrobial, calcium and zinc binding heterocomplex protein that could be used as a nonspecific marker for activation of granulocytes and mononuclear phagocytes. Calprotectin has been proposed for the diagnosis of inflammatory conditions. Our aim is to study serum calprotectin as a biomarker for neonatal sepsis diagnosis. Methods. 41 (20 females, 21 males infants who underwent blood culture due to suspected sepsis were enrolled in the study. Serum calprotectin was measured by a commercial ELISA assay (Calprest, Eurospital, Trieste, Italy. Statistical analysis was performed using the statistical software package Stata 13.1 (Stata Corporation, College Station, Texas, USA. Results. 8 neonates (19.51% showed sepsis with positive culture and 33 (80.49% showed suspected sepsis. The optimal cut-off for calprotectin is 2.2 μg/mL with a sensitivity of 62.5% and a specificity of 69.7%. Conclusions. Calprotectin may be considered a promising early, sensitive, specific marker of sepsis thanks to the importance of calprotectin in defense mechanisms and physiological functions of the immune system.

  14. High level of fecal calprotectin at age 2 months as a marker of intestinal inflammation predicts atopic dermatitis and asthma by age 6

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    Orivuori, L.; Mustonen, K.; de Goffau, M. C.; Hakala, S.; Paasela, M.; Roduit, C.; Dalphin, J. -C.; Genuneit, J.; Lauener, R.; Riedler, J.; Weber, J.; von Mutius, E.; Pekkanen, J.; Harmsen, H. J. M.; Vaarala, O.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundGut microbiota and intestinal inflammation regulate the development of immune-mediated diseases, such as allergies. Fecal calprotectin is a biomarker of intestinal inflammation. ObjectiveWe evaluated the association of early-age fecal calprotectin levels to the later development of allergi

  15. Fækal calprotectin er en klinisk anvendelig markør for intestinal inflammation

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    Theede, Klaus; Kiszka-Kanowitz, Marianne; Nordgaard-Lassen, Inge

    2014-01-01

    Faecal calprotectin is a biomarker for inflammation in the intestinal mucosa. Faecal calprotectin has the ability to detect inflammatory causes of gastrointestinal symptoms and to distinguish these from irritable bowel syndrome. The test is very sensitive but not specific to any particular...... gastrointestinal disease. In inflammatory bowel disease, faecal calprotectin correlates with symptoms, biochemical markers and the endoscopic findings. It can be used to monitor disease activity, treatment response and mucosal healing as well as predict relapse. We propose an algorithm for the use of faecal...... calprotectin in patients with unspecific abdominal complaints....

  16. The role of fecal calprotectin in investigating inflammatory bowel diseases

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    Mustafa Erbayrak

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Invasive and non-invasive tests can be used to evaluate the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of fecal calprotectin in evaluating inflammatory bowel disease activity and the correlation of fecal calprotectin with the erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C reactive protein values in inflammatory bowel disease. METHOD: Sixty-five patients affected with inflammatory bowel disease were enrolled. Twenty outpatients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease comprised the control group. RESULTS: In the present study, all patients in the control group had an fecal calprotectin value lower than the cut-off point (50 mg/kg. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, fecal calprotectin was found to be strongly associated with colorectal inflammation indicating organic disease. Fecal calprotectin is a simple and non-invasive method for assessing excretion of macrophages into the gut lumen. Fecal calprotectin values can be used to evaluate the response to treatment, to screen asymptomatic patients, and to predict inflammatory bowel disease relapses.

  17. 粪便钙卫蛋白对溃疡性结肠炎的诊断及预测复发的价值%Research about the diagnostic and predictive value of fecal calprotectin in ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    沈姞; 李俊霞; 王化虹; 谢鹏雁; 刘新光

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the diagnostic and predictive value of fecal calprotectin as a non-invasive approach in patients with ulcerative colitis ( UC ). Methods: 49 patients with ulcerative colitis, 38 patients with colon polyps, and 133 normal controls were recruited after colonoscopy. All the patients w asked to collect their stool sample one day before colonoscopy for measuring fecal calprotectin by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The disease activity of UC was evaluated according to Mayo disease activity index (UCAI). UC patients were followed up for recurrence within 2 years. Results: Fecal calprotectin concentration in active UC patients was significantly higher than the normal controls and those with colon polyps ( P 0. 05 ). Fecal calprotectin level was significantly correlated with the disease activity, mu-cosal healing and recurrence rate of UC. Conclusion: The levels of fecal calprotectin can be an objective reflection of UC disease activities and mucosal healing, and can predict the recurrence of UC patients.%目的:探讨粪便钙卫蛋白在溃疡性结肠炎(UC)诊断和预测复发方面的价值.方法:选取UC病人49例、结肠息肉38例和对照组133例,均行结肠镜检查,于检查前1d内留取粪便,采用ELISA法测定粪便钙卫蛋白的含量.UC临床分级采用Mayo疾病活动指数(UCAI),评价粪便钙卫蛋白测定作为判断UC活动性的指标,随访UC病人2年内的复发情况,评价粪便钙卫蛋白对UC复发的预测价值.结果:UC组病人活动期粪便钙卫蛋白水平显著高于对照组和息肉组(P<0.01);粪便钙卫蛋白水平与UC活动性、是否达到黏膜愈合及UC的复发显著相关.结论:粪便钙卫蛋白的含量与UC活动度呈正相关,可客观反映UC的炎症活动及黏膜愈合情况,预测UC的复发.

  18. Predicting Factors for Mortality in Sigmoid Volvulus

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    Bilsel Baç

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Sigmoid colon is the most frequent site for a volvulus and volvulus of the sigmoid colon(SV is characterized by a high morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was toevaluate predicting factors for mortality in the SV cases. Between January 1994 andDecember 2001, the records of patients operated on due to SV at Dicle University Hospital(DUH were retrospectively reviewed. The epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory featureswere evaluated as probable risk factors for mortality. Variables associated with SV weredetermined using logistic regression models. Of 90 patients, 80 (88.9% were male, and 10(11.1% were female. The mean age was 58.8±12.9 (19-85 and 63.6±16.1 (23-83 for thepatients with uneventful outcome (Group 1 and for the patients with fatal outcome (Group2, respectively (p=0.000. The period of symptoms before admission (PSBA were 2.2±0.73(1-4 days and 5.6±1.7 (2-10 days in Group 1 and Group 2 respectively (p=0.000. While the73.8 % of patients in the Group 1 were operated on an emergency state, 100 % of patients inthe Group 2 were operated on an emergency state (p=0.002. In the univariate analysis, othersignificant risk factors were significantly fluid-electrolyte imbalance, elevated abdominalpressure (EAP, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, leukocytosis, hypotension,presence of necrosis, and presence of major contamination (p=0.000. These variables wereentered into the logistic regression model for revealing the risk factors for mortality. Inmultivariate analysis, long PSBA [Odds Ratio (OR =17.17, 95% Confidence Interval (CI=2.86-103.07, P=0.002], presence of cardiovascular disease at the admission (OR=0.19,CI=0.001-0.52, P=0.019 and age (OR=0.87, CI=0.77-0.99, P=0.046 were foundsignificantly predictive for mortality. EAP, fluid-electrolyte imbalance, respiratory disease,and presence of major contamination were not statistically significant factors for mortalityafter sigmoid volvulus. In our study, we

  19. Copeptin Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients

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    Krychtiuk, Konstantin A.; Honeder, Maria C.; Lenz, Max; Maurer, Gerald; Wojta, Johann; Heinz, Gottfried; Huber, Kurt; Speidl, Walter S.

    2017-01-01

    Background Critically ill patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit exhibit a high mortality rate irrespective of the cause of admission. Besides its role in fluid and electrolyte balance, vasopressin has been described as a stress hormone. Copeptin, the C-terminal portion of provasopressin mirrors vasopressin levels and has been described as a reliable biomarker for the individual’s stress level and was associated with outcome in various disease entities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission are associated with 30-day mortality. Methods In this single-center prospective observational study including 225 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary medical ICU at a university hospital, blood was taken at ICU admission and copeptin levels were measured using a commercially available automated sandwich immunofluorescent assay. Results Median acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score was 20 and 30-day mortality was 25%. Median copeptin admission levels were significantly higher in non-survivors as compared with survivors (77.6 IQR 30.7–179.3 pmol/L versus 45.6 IQR 19.6–109.6 pmol/L; p = 0.025). Patients with serum levels of copeptin in the third tertile at admission had a 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.2–4.6; p = 0.01) increased mortality risk as compared to patients in the first tertile. When analyzing patients according to cause of admission, copeptin was only predictive of 30-day mortality in patients admitted due to medical causes as opposed to those admitted after cardiac surgery, as medical patients with levels of copeptin in the highest tertile had a 3.3-fold (95% CI 1.66.8, p = 0.002) risk of dying independent from APACHE II score, primary diagnosis, vasopressor use and need for mechanical ventilation. Conclusion Circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission independently predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted to a medical ICU. PMID:28118414

  20. Utility of faecal calprotectin analysis in adult inflammatory bowel disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lyn A Smith; Daniel R Gaya

    2012-01-01

    The inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD),Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis,are chronic relapsing,remitting disorders.Diagnosis,along with assessment of disease activity and prognosis present challenges to managing clinicians.Faecal biomarkers,such as faecal calprotectin,are a non-invasive method which can be used to aid these decisions.Calprotectin is a calcium and zinc binding protein found in the cytosol of human neutrophils and macrophages.It is released extracellularly in times of cell stress or damage and can be detected within faeces and thus can be used as a sensitive marker of intestinal inflammation.Faecal calprotectin has been shown to be useful in the diagnosis of IBD,correlates with mucosal disease activity and can help to predict response to treatment or relapse.With growing evidence supporting its use,over the last decade this faecal biomarker has significantly changed the way IBD is managed.

  1. Fecal calprotectin as a biomarker of inflammatory lesions of the small bowel seen by videocapsule endoscopy

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    Juan Egea-Valenzuela

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The levels of calprotectin in the stools are proportional to neutrophil activity in the enteric lumen, so fecal calprotectin is a useful intestinal inflammatory biomarker. It is an extended tool as predictor of colonic pathology but there is scare evidence about its utility in the small bowel. Objective: To test the yield of fecal calprotectin to detect lesions in the small bowel. Material and methods: We have retrospectively included 71 patients sent for small bowel capsule endoscopy in study for suspected inflammatory bowel disease. All of them had a determination of fecal calprotectin and had been sent to colonoscopy with no findings. Patients have been divided in groups: A, fecal calprotectin 100 µg/g, and we have analyzed which of them presented inflammatory lesions in capsule endoscopy studies. Results: The rate of patients with signi ficative lesions was 1 out of 10 (10% in group A, 6 out of 24 (25% in group B, and 21 out of 34 (62% in group C. If we consider levels over 50 µg/g pathologic, fecal calprotectin presents sensitivity: 96%, specificity: 23%, NPV: 90% and PPV: 56%. If we consider levels over 100 µg/g pathologic these values are sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 67%, NPV: 79% and PPV: 62%. Conclusions: Fecal calprotectin has high sensitivity but not so good specificity for predicting small bowel lesions after a normal colonoscopy. In daily practice it will be more useful to establish in 100 µg/g the limit to indicate capsule endoscopy studies.

  2. Consistent Predictions of Future Forest Mortality

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    McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    We examined empirical and model based estimates of current and future forest mortality of conifers in the northern hemisphere. Consistent water potential thresholds were found that resulted in mortality of our case study species, pinon pine and one-seed juniper. Extending these results with IPCC climate scenarios suggests that most existing trees in this region (SW USA) will be dead by 2050. Further, independent estimates of future mortality for the entire coniferous biome suggest widespread mortality by 2100. The validity and assumptions and implications of these results are discussed.

  3. Predictive Factors of Mortality in Burn Patients

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    Fazeli; Karami-Matin; Kakaei; Pourghorban; Safari-Faramani

    2014-01-01

    Background: Burn injuries impose a considerable burden on healthcare systems in Iran. It is among the top ten causes of mortality and a main cause of disability. Objectives: This study aimed to examine factors influencing mortality in burn patients admitted to the main educational tertiary referral hospital in Kermanshah. Patients and Methods: All patients admitted to the Imam Khom...

  4. The use of fecal calprotectin as a biomarker in gastrointestinal disease.

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    Burri, Emanuel; Beglinger, Christoph

    2014-02-01

    Abdominal discomfort including pain, bloating and diarrhea is common. It often arises from functional gastrointestinal disorders but may indicate inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Calprotectin is an abundant neutrophil protein that is released during inflammation. When measured in feces, it can be used to differentiate between non-organic and inflammatory intestinal disorders, especially to identify IBD. Fecal calprotectin might also be useful to monitor patients with IBD under treatment and to predict the risk of recurrence of active disease prior to clinical relapse. The use of fecal calprotectin has been investigated in a number of gastrointestinal disorders other than IBD, for example, as screening test for colorectal cancer but the available data are limited. This article summarizes the current literature on the use of fecal calprotectin in clinical practice.

  5. Faecal calprotectin: Management in inflammatory bowel disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    José; Manuel; Benítez; Valle; García-Sánchez

    2015-01-01

    Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) is a chronic and relapsing disorder which leads to an inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract. A tailored therapy to achieve mucosal healing with the less adverse events has become a key issue in the management of IBD. In the past, the clinical remission was the most important factor to consider for adapting diagnostic procedures and therapeutic strategies. However, there is no a good correlation between symptoms and intestinal lesions, so currently the goals of treatment are to achieve not only the control of symptoms, but deep remission, which is related with a favourable prognosis. Thus, the determination of biological markers or biomarkers of intestinal inflammation play a crucial role. Many biomarkers have been extensively evaluated in IBD showing significant correlation with endoscopic lesions, risk of recurrence and response to treatment. One of the most important markers is faecal calprotectin(FC). Despite calprotectin limitations, this biomarker represents a reliable and noninvasive alternative to reduce the need for endoscopic procedures. FC has demonstrated its performance for regular monitoring of IBD patients, not only to the diagnosis for discriminating IBD from non-IBD diagnosis, but for assessing disease activity, relapse prediction and response to therapy. Although, FC provides better results than other biomarkers such as C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate, these surrogate markers of intestinal inflammation should not be used isolation but in combination with other clinical, endoscopic, radiological or/and histological parameters enabling a comprehensive assessment of IBD patients.

  6. Detection of aggressive periodontitis by calprotectin expression

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    Desi Sandra Sari

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Calprotectin is a calcium-binding protein expressed by neutrophil, monocytes, gingival keratinocytes, and oral epithelial cells. The concentrations of calprotectin increase in plasma, urine and synovial fluid of patients with inflammatory diseases. This protein is known as a marker for periodontal diseases and is detected in gingival crevicular fluids. Purpose: This study was aimed to investigate the detection of inflammation on the aggressive periodontitis by calprotectin expression. Method: The gingival crevicular fluids were taken from five aggressive periodontitis patients and five healthy subjects by using sterile paper points. Calprotectin expression was analyzed by ELISA technique. Result: The results showed the significant difference in calprotectin expression between subject with aggressive periodontitis and healthy subjects p = 0.002 (p < 0.05. Conclusion: It was concluded that the calprotectin expression on the aggressive periodontitis patients may be useful for evaluation the progression of inflammation in periodontitis.

  7. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

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    Anderegg, William R. L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  8. Evaluation of Biliary Calprotectin as a Biomarker in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

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    Gauss, Annika; Sauer, Peter; Stiehl, Adolf; Rupp, Christian; Krisam, Johannes; Leopold, Yvonne; Kloeters-Plachky, Petra; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Gotthardt, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the bile ducts with limited therapeutic options except liver transplantation. Reliable biomarkers to predict the disease course are unavailable, and currently employed disease activity scores such as the Mayo risk score (MRS) have limitations. The present study aims to evaluate biliary calprotectin as a marker of disease activity and prognosis in PSC. This is a monocentric retrospective observational study. Calprotectin concentrations were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in bile samples collected by endoscopic retrograde cholangiography from 106 PSC patients and 20 controls. Biliary calprotectin concentrations were compared between the 2 groups. In PSC patients, results were evaluated with regard to the presence of dominant bile duct stenoses, bile microbiology, MRS, survival free of liver transplantation, and necessity for bile duct interventions in the further disease course. Median (interquartile ranges) biliary calprotectin concentrations were higher in PSC patients than in controls (3646 ng/mL, 249–9748 vs 116 ng/mL, 104–655; P PSC cohort, higher biliary calprotectin concentrations were associated with the presence of microbes in bile (P = 0.02), the occurrence of dominant bile duct stenosis at any time in the disease course (P = 0.005), and the necessity for future bile duct interventions (P = 0.02). Patients with biliary calprotectin concentrations above a cut-off of 11,610 ng/mL displayed significantly shorter transplantation-free survival than those with biliary calprotectin concentrations ≤11,610 ng/mL (P 11,610 ng/mL) as a risk factor of shorter transplantation-free survival of PSC patients (P 142.5 U/L) (P = 0.006), high MRS (≥2) (P PSC, so that further studies for evaluation of calprotectin in this disease are warranted. PMID:27124059

  9. Fecal calprotectin and α1-antitrypsin dynamics in gastrointestinal GvHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Meara, A; Kapel, N; Xhaard, A; Sicre de Fontbrune, F; Manéné, D; Dhedin, N; de Latour, R P; Socié, G; Robin, M

    2015-08-01

    In a previous study, the fecal biomarkers calprotectin and α1-antitrypsin (α1-AT) at symptom onset were reported to be significantly associated with the response to steroids in gastrointestinal GvHD (GI-GvHD). The purpose of this trial was to evaluate the dynamics of the fecal biomarkers calprotectin and α1-AT throughout the course of GvHD. Patients who were refractory to steroids had initially higher biomarker levels and in the course of GvHD demonstrated a continuous increase in fecal biomarkers. In contrast, the dynamics of calprotectin and α1-AT demonstrated low and decreasing levels in cortico-sensitive GvHD. In steroid-refractory patients who received a second line of treatment, the biomarker levels at the beginning of second-line treatment did not predict the subsequent response. Nevertheless, calprotectin levels progressively decreased in subsequent responders, whereas non-responders demonstrated continuously high levels of calprotectin. α1-AT values correlated to a lesser extent with the response to second-line treatment and remained elevated in both non-responders and responders. In conclusion, calprotectin monitoring can be of use in the management of immunosuppressive treatment in GI-GvHD.

  10. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  11. 21 CFR 866.5180 - Fecal calprotectin immunological test system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fecal calprotectin immunological test system. 866....5180 Fecal calprotectin immunological test system. (a) Identification. A fecal calprotectin... measure, by immunochemical techniques, fecal calprotectin in human stool specimens. The device is...

  12. Anxiety Predicts Mortality in ICD Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kikkenborg Berg, Selina; Caspar Thygesen, Lau; Hastrup Svendsen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although highly effective in preventing arrhythmic death, patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) may still experience psychological difficulties such as anxiety, depression, and reduced quality of life. The objectives of this study were to describe patient...... receiving ICD between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 (n = 499). The following instruments were used: SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HeartQoL, EQ-5D, and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory. RESULTS: The response rate was 72%. Mean age was 65.5 years and 82% patients were males. Fifty...... of perceived health, quality of life, and fatigue; for example, physical health 39.8 versus 44.3 points, compared to secondary prevention indication. Anxiety, poor perceived health, fatigue, and low quality of life were all predictors of mortality, anxiety being the strongest with an adjusted odds ratio of 4...

  13. Melanocyte and Melanoma Cell Activation by Calprotectin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie H. Shirley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9, is a proinflammatory cytokine released from ultraviolet radiation-exposed keratinocytes. Calprotectin binds to Toll-like receptor 4, the receptor for advanced glycation end-products, and extracellular matrix metalloproteinase inducer on target cells to stimulate migration. Melanocytes and melanoma cells produce little if any calprotectin, but they do express receptors for the cytokine. Thus, keratinocyte-derived calprotectin has the potential to activate melanocytes and melanoma cells within the epidermis in a paracrine manner. We examined the ability of calprotectin to stimulate proliferation and migration in normal human melanocytes and melanoma cells in vitro. We first showed, by immunofluorescence and quantitative RT-PCR, that the melanocytic cells employed expressed a calprotectin receptor, the receptor for advanced end-products. We then demonstrated that calprotectin significantly enhanced proliferation, migration, and Matrigel invasion in both normal human melanocytes and melanoma cells. Thus, calprotectin is one of the numerous paracrine factors released by ultraviolet radiation-exposed keratinocytes that may promote melanomagenesis and is a potential target for melanoma prevention or therapy.

  14. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  15. Predicting pneumonia and influenza mortality from morbidity data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lise Denoeud

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few European countries conduct reactive surveillance of influenza mortality, whereas most monitor morbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant types/subtypes of circulating viruses. Epidemics were classified in three levels of mortality burden ("high", "moderate" and "low". The model was fitted on 14 influenza seasons and was validated on six subsequent influenza seasons. Five out of the six seasons in the validation set were correctly classified. The average absolute difference between observed and predicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P = 0.05. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method described here can be used to estimate the influenza mortality burden in countries where specific pneumonia and influenza mortality surveillance data are not available.

  16. Evaluation of Biliary Calprotectin as a Biomarker in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauss, Annika; Sauer, Peter; Stiehl, Adolf; Rupp, Christian; Krisam, Johannes; Leopold, Yvonne; Kloeters-Plachky, Petra; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Gotthardt, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the bile ducts with limited therapeutic options except liver transplantation. Reliable biomarkers to predict the disease course are unavailable, and currently employed disease activity scores such as the Mayo risk score (MRS) have limitations. The present study aims to evaluate biliary calprotectin as a marker of disease activity and prognosis in PSC.This is a monocentric retrospective observational study. Calprotectin concentrations were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in bile samples collected by endoscopic retrograde cholangiography from 106 PSC patients and 20 controls. Biliary calprotectin concentrations were compared between the 2 groups. In PSC patients, results were evaluated with regard to the presence of dominant bile duct stenoses, bile microbiology, MRS, survival free of liver transplantation, and necessity for bile duct interventions in the further disease course.Median (interquartile ranges) biliary calprotectin concentrations were higher in PSC patients than in controls (3646 ng/mL, 249-9748 vs 116 ng/mL, 104-655; P calprotectin concentrations were associated with the presence of microbes in bile (P = 0.02), the occurrence of dominant bile duct stenosis at any time in the disease course (P = 0.005), and the necessity for future bile duct interventions (P = 0.02). Patients with biliary calprotectin concentrations above a cut-off of 11,610 ng/mL displayed significantly shorter transplantation-free survival than those with biliary calprotectin concentrations ≤11,610 ng/mL (P calprotectin concentration (>11,610 ng/mL) as a risk factor of shorter transplantation-free survival of PSC patients (P 142.5 U/L) (P = 0.006), high MRS (≥2) (P calprotectin may be a valuable additional marker for disease activity and a predictor of outcome in PSC, so that further studies for evaluation of calprotectin in this disease are warranted.

  17. Predicting mortality in patients with diabetes starting dialysis.

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    Merel van Diepen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. METHODS: Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD, a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21% patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy. The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary.

  18. Bone Marrow Pathology Predicts Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hao Weng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A bone marrow biopsy is a useful procedure for the diagnosis and staging of various hematologic and systemic diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the findings of bone marrow studies can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. Methods. Seventy-eight end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis underwent bone marrow biopsies between 2000 and 2011, with the most common indication being unexplained anemia followed by unexplained leukocytosis and leukopenia. Results. The survivors had a higher incidence of abnormal megakaryocyte distribution P=0.001, band and segmented cells P=0.021, and lymphoid cells P=0.029 than the nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 38.5% (30/78, and the most common cause of mortality was sepsis (83.3% followed by respiratory failure (10%. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both decreased (OR 3.714, 95% CI 1.671–8.253, P=0.001 and absent (OR 9.751, 95% CI 2.030–45.115, P=0.004 megakaryocyte distribution (normal megakaryocyte distribution as the reference group, as well as myeloid/erythroid ratio (OR 1.054, CI 1.012–1.098, P=0.011, were predictive of mortality. Conclusion. The results of a bone marrow biopsy can be used to assess the pathology, and, in addition, myeloid/erythroid ratio and abnormal megakaryocyte distribution can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

  19. Predicting mortality in patients with heart failure : a pragmatic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouvy, ML; Heerdink, ER; Leufkens, HGM; Hoes, AW

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To develop a comprehensive and easily applicable prognostic model predicting mortality risk in patients with moderate to severe heart failure. Design: Prospective follow up study. Setting: Seven general hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients: 152 outpatients with heart failure or patients

  20. Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck, Mette Kristina; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach

    2016-01-01

    abuse, Diabetes and Cardio-vascular diagnoses. Many cancers also increased sepsis mortality. Using the trajectory based stratification model we explain contradictory reports in relation to diabetes that recently have appeared in the literature. Finally, we compared the predictive power using 18.5 years...

  1. Calprotectin--a novel marker of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Ole Hartvig; Nielsen, Anders Rinnov; Erikstrup, Christian

    2009-01-01

    obese subjects or subjects with type 2 diabetes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Plasma calprotectin and skeletal muscle S100A8 mRNA levels were measured in a cohort consisting of 199 subjects divided into four groups depending on presence or absence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and presence or absence...... of obesity. There was a significant interaction between obesity and T2D (p = 0.012). Plasma calprotectin was increased in obese relative to non-obese controls (pobese and non-obese patients with T2D (p = 0.62). S100A8 mRNA levels in skeletal muscle were...... not influenced by obesity or T2D. Multivariate regression analysis (adjusting for age, sex, smoking and HOMA2-IR) showed plasma calprotectin to be strongly associated with BMI, even when further adjusted for fitness, CRP, TNF-alpha or neutrophil number. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Plasma calprotectin is a marker...

  2. Dynamics of Urinary Calprotectin after Renal Ischaemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Ebbing

    Full Text Available Urinary calprotectin has been identified as a promising biomarker for acute kidney injury. To date, however, the time-dependent changes of this parameter during acute kidney injury remain elusive. The aim of the present work was to define the time-course of urinary calprotectin secretion after ischaemia/reperfusion-induced kidney injury in comparison to neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, thereby monitoring the extent of tubular damage in nephron sparing surgery for kidney tumours.The study population consisted of 42 patients. Thirty-two patients underwent either open or endoscopic nephron sparing surgery for kidney tumours. During the surgery, the renal arterial pedicle was clamped with a median ischaemic time of 13 minutes (interquartile range, 4.5-20.3 minutes in 26 patients. Ten retro-peritoneoscopic living donor nephrectomy patients and 6 nephron sparing surgery patients in whom the renal artery was not clamped served as controls. Urinary calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin concentrations were repeatedly measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and assessed according to renal function parameters.Urinary concentrations of calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin increased significantly after ischaemia/reperfusion injury, whereas concentrations remained unchanged after nephron sparing surgery without ischaemia/reperfusion injury and after kidney donation. Calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels were significantly increased 2 and 8 hours, respectively, post-ischaemia. Both proteins reached maximal concentrations after 48 hours, followed by a subsequent persistent decrease. Maximal neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and calprotectin concentrations were 9-fold and 69-fold higher than their respective baseline values. The glomerular filtration rate was only transiently impaired at the first post-operative day after ischaemia/reperfusion injury (p = 0

  3. Skin autofluorescence predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kenichi; Kanno, Makoto; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Asahi, Koichi; Suzuki, Hodaka; Sato, Keiji; Sakaue, Michiaki; Terawaki, Hiroyuki; Nakayama, Masaaki; Miyata, Toshio; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2014-10-01

    Tissue accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGE) is thought to contribute to the progression of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive measure of AGE accumulation using autofluorescence of the skin under ultraviolet light, has been reported to be an independent predictor of mortality associated with CVD in Caucasian patients on chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of skin autofluorescence on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. Baseline skin autofluorescence was measured with an autofluorescence reader in 128 non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 6 years. During the follow-up period, 42 of the 128 patients died; 19 of those patients died of CVD. Skin autofluorescence did not have a significant effect on all-cause mortality. However, age, carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), serum albumin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), skin autofluorescence and pre-existing CVD were significantly correlated with cardiovascular mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed skin autofluorescence (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]1.67-9.43), serum albumin (adjusted HR 0.05; 95% CI 0.01-0.32), and hsCRP (adjusted HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.18-2.05) to be independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The present study suggests that skin autofluorescence is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in non-Caucasian (Japanese) patients on chronic hemodialysis.

  4. Vitamin D status predicts 30 day mortality in hospitalised cats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Titmarsh

    Full Text Available Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD, has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OHD and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OHD, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OHD concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52 for cats with a serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OHD concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats.

  5. Scoring systems for predicting mortality after liver transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng-Chih Pan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation can prolong survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. We have proposed that the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA score calculated on post-transplant day 7 has a great discriminative power for predicting 1-year mortality after liver transplantation. The Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA score, a modified SOFA score, is a newly developed scoring system exclusively for patients with end-stage liver disease. This study was designed to compare the CLIF-SOFA score with other main scoring systems in outcome prediction for liver transplant patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 323 patients who had received liver transplants in a tertiary care university hospital from October 2002 to December 2010. Demographic parameters and clinical characteristic variables were recorded on the first day of admission before transplantation and on post-transplantation days 1, 3, 7, and 14. RESULTS: The overall 1-year survival rate was 78.3% (253/323. Liver diseases were mostly attributed to hepatitis B virus infection (34%. The CLIF-SOFA score had better discriminatory power than the Child-Pugh points, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD score, RIFLE (risk of renal dysfunction, injury to the kidney, failure of the kidney, loss of kidney function, and end-stage kidney disease criteria, and SOFA score. The AUROC curves were highest for CLIF-SOFA score on post-liver transplant day 7 for predicting 1-year mortality. The cumulative survival rates differed significantly for patients with a CLIF-SOFA score ≤8 and those with a CLIF-SOFA score >8 on post-liver transplant day 7. CONCLUSION: The CLIF-SOFA score can increase the prediction accuracy of prognosis after transplantation. Moreover, the CLIF-SOFA score on post-transplantation day 7 had the best discriminative power for predicting 1-year mortality after liver transplantation.

  6. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yinan; Joyce, Brian T; Colicino, Elena; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wei; Dai, Qi; Shrubsole, Martha J; Kibbe, Warren A; Gao, Tao; Zhang, Zhou; Jafari, Nadereh; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Hou, Lifang

    2016-03-01

    Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages) can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3-5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02) and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.02). Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a 'J-shaped' manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  7. AZITHROMYCIN DECREASE SALIVA CALPROTECTIN IN PATIENTS WITH PERIODONTAL DISEASES.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir E. Panov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Calprotectin is a calcium binding heterocomplex protein which appear to have regulatory functions in the inflammatory process. Epithelial cells which expressing calprotectin are more resistant to bacterial invasion . In acute phase inflammatory reactions calprotectin is detectable in elevated levels. The aim of the present study is to detect the calprotectin level in saliva in patients with periodontal disease (chronic and aggressive periodontitis and gingivitis and to follow calprotectin level during azithromycin treatment. Methods and materials: In nine healthy patients without systemic disease and malignancy whole unstimulated saliva was investigated. Salivary calprotectin levels were measured by enzyme-linked-immunosorbent using a commercial kit (ELISA Hycult Biotech. Azithromycin treatment was taken as 500 mg (2 x 250 mg tabls. once daily at 10.00 am for 4 consecutive days. Results: At baseline Day levels of calprotectin ranged between 1.45 and 2.97; median 2.19. On Day 5 (first day after azithromycin treatment the salivary calprotectin levels decreased in 6 of the patients. The measured values at Day 10 were more similar to those at Day 5, than those at Day zero. This was confirmed by the values of the average median of calprotectin. Conclusion: We present the first study with the application of antibiotic and measurement the calprotectin levels before, during and after azithromycin intake with no side effects reported. Measuring calprotectin levels could benefit the monitoring of antibiotic treatment efficacy in patients with gingivitis and periodontitis.

  8. Prediction using patient comparison vs. modeling: a case study for mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; El Hassouni, Ali; Mok, Kwongyen; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Information in Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to generate accurate predictions for the occurrence of a variety of health states, which can contribute to more pro-active interventions. The very nature of EMRs does make the application of off-the-shelf machine learning techniques difficult. In this paper, we study two approaches to making predictions that have hardly been compared in the past: (1) extracting high-level (temporal) features from EMRs and building a predictive model, and (2) defining a patient similarity metric and predicting based on the outcome observed for similar patients. We analyze and compare both approaches on the MIMIC-II ICU dataset to predict patient mortality and find that the patient similarity approach does not scale well and results in a less accurate model (AUC of 0.68) compared to the modeling approach (0.84). We also show that mortality can be predicted within a median of 72 hours.

  9. Calprotectin in rheumatic diseases: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopeć-Mędrek, Magdalena; Widuchowska, Małgorzata; Kucharz, Eugeniusz J

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin also known as MRP8/14 or S100A8/A9 is a heterodimeric complex of two S100 calcium-binding proteins: myeloid-related protein 8 (MRP-8 or S100A8) and MRP-14 (or S100A9). At present, according to many authors, it is considered that calprotectin MRP8/14 is a potentially more sensitive biomarker of disease activity in rheumatoid disease than conventional inflammatory indices such as the erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein and others. A review of the literature on concentration of calprotectin in patients with some rheumatic diseases (rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, adult-onset Still's disease, systemic vasculitis, polymyalgia rheumatica, ankylosis spondylitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and primary Sjögren's syndrome) is presented.

  10. Predicting in-hospital maternal mortality in Senegal and Mali.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheikh Ndour

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify predictors of in-hospital maternal mortality among women attending referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional epidemiological survey using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial (QUARITE trial in 46 referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal, during the pre-intervention period of the trial (from October 1st 2007 to October 1st 2008. We included 89,518 women who delivered in the 46 hospitals during this period. Data were collected on women's characteristics, obstetric complications, and vital status until the hospital discharge. We developed a tree-like classification rule (classification rule to identify patient subgroups at high risk of maternal in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Our analyses confirm that patients with uterine rupture, hemorrhage or prolonged/obstructed labor, and those who have an emergency ante-partum cesarean delivery have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, especially if they are referred from another health facility. Twenty relevant patterns, based on fourteen predictors variables, are used to predict in-hospital maternal mortality with 81.41% sensitivity (95% CI = [77.12%-87.70%] and 81.6% specificity (95% CI = [81.16%-82.02%]. CONCLUSION: The proposed class association rule method will help health care professionals in referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal to identify mothers at high risk of in-hospital death, and can provide scientific evidence on which to base their decisions to manage patients delivering in their health facilities.

  11. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinan Zheng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3–5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02 and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.10 and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07–1.28. Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003 and mortality (P = 0.02. Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a ‘J-shaped’ manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  12. Magnitude of bacteraemia predicts one-year mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim; Schønheyder, Henrik; Søgaard, Mette

    Objectives: All hospitals in our region use the BacT/Alert® blood culture (BC) system with a 3-bottle BC set for adults. We hypothesized that the magnitude of bacteremia (i.e., number of positive bottles in the initial BC set) predicted one-year mortality. Methods In a population-based study we....... A BC index of 3 had the strongest long-term prognostic impact in pneumococcal bacteremia (n=855) (adjusted MRR 1.60 [1.09-2.34]). In patients with community-acquired or health-care related bacteremia, high magnitude of bacteremia (i.e., a BC index of 3) predicted increased  30-day as well as 365-day...

  13. Hemoglobin Variability Does Not Predict Mortality in European Hemodialysis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joseph; Kronenberg, Florian; Aljama, Pedro; Anker, Stefan D.; Canaud, Bernard; Molemans, Bart; Stenvinkel, Peter; Schernthaner, Guntram; Ireland, Elizabeth; Fouqueray, Bruno; Macdougall, Iain C.

    2010-01-01

    Patients with CKD exhibit significant within-patient hemoglobin (Hb) level variability, especially with the use of erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) and iron. Analyses of dialysis cohorts in the United States produced conflicting results regarding the association of Hb variability with patient outcomes. Here, we determined Hb variability in 5037 European hemodialysis (HD) patients treated over 2 years to identify predictors of high variability and to evaluate its association with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We assessed Hb variability with various methods using SD, residual SD, time-in-target (11.0 to 12.5 g/dl), fluctuation across thresholds, and area under the curve (AUC). Hb variability was significantly greater among incident patients than prevalent patients. Compared with previously described cohorts in the United States, residual SD was similar but fluctuations above target were less frequent. Using logistic regression, age, body mass index, CVD history, dialysis vintage, serum albumin, Hb, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use, ESA use, dialysis access type, dialysis access change, and hospitalizations were significant predictors of high variability. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression showed that SD, residual SD, time-in-target, and AUC did not predict all-cause or CVD mortality during a median follow-up of 12.4 months (IQR: 7.7 to 17.4). However, patients with consistently low levels of Hb (<11 g/dl) and those who fluctuated between the target range and <11 g/dl had increased risks for death (RR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.24 to 4.41 and RR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.00 to 3.04, respectively). In conclusion, although Hb variability is common in European HD patients, it does not independently predict mortality. PMID:20798262

  14. Pediatric trauma BIG score: Predicting mortality in polytraumatized pediatric patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Abd El-Aziz El-Gamasy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Trauma is a worldwide health problem and the major cause of death and disability, particularly affecting the young population. It is important to remember that pediatric trauma care has made a significant improvement in the outcomes of these injured children. Aim of the Work: This study aimed at evaluation of pediatric trauma BIG score in comparison with New Injury Severity Score (NISS and Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS in Tanta University Emergency Hospital. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in Tanta University Emergency Hospital to all multiple trauma pediatric patients attended to the Emergency Department for 1 year. Pediatric trauma BIG score, PTS, and NISS scores were calculated and results compared to each other and to observed mortality. Results: BIG score ≥12.7 has sensitivity 86.7% and specificity 71.4%, whereas PTS at value ≤3.5 has sensitivity 63.3% and specificity 68.6% and NISS at value ≥39.5 has sensitivity 53.3% and specificity 54.3%. There was a significant positive correlation between BIG score value and mortality rate. Conclusion: The pediatric BIG score is a reliable mortality-prediction score for children with traumatic injuries; it uses international normalization ratio (INR, Base Excess (BE, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS values that can be measured within a few minutes of sampling, so it can be readily applied in the Pediatric Emergency Department, but it cannot be applied on patients with chronic diseases that affect INR, BE, or GCS.

  15. Mortality Prediction in Patients with Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis Suárez Quesada

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage is the deadliest, most disabling, and least treatable form of stroke. No therapy has proven to improve its outcome or reduce its mortality. Objective: to identify predictors of mortality in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods: a single cohort study was conducted involving 176 patients admitted consecutively to the stroke ward of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Provincial General Hospital with neuroimaging and clinical diagnosis of spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2013 to November 2015. Independent predictors were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. Results: seventy four point four percent of the patients were hypertensive. The median age among those who died was 67.45 ± 14.84 years. Forty three point eight percent of the patients under study died. Subjects with fatal outcome had lower score on the Glasgow Coma Scale (10.00 ± 3.47 vs. 14.00 ± 1.93, higher hematoma volume expressed in cubic centimeters (26.27 ± 36.86 vs. 6.19 ± 19.59, and displacement of the midline structures (2.00 ± 5.95 vs. 0.00 ± 4.49. The following predictors were identified: Glasgow score ≤ 10 points (Exp (B: 10.74; 95 % CI=4.69 to 24.59, hematoma volume ≥ 20 cm3 (Exp (B: 4.44; 95 % CI= 1.95 to 10.06, and pulse pressure ≥ 60 mmHg (Exp (B: 2.42, 95 % CI=1.10 to 5.33. The area under the ROC curve was 0.85. Conclusions: the Glasgow Coma Scale is the most significant independent variable to predict mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

  16. Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: HRCT findings that predict mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edey, Anthony J.; Hansell, David M. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Devaraj, Anand A. [St. George' s NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Tooting (United Kingdom); Barker, Robert P. [Frimley Park Hosptal, Department of Radiology, Frimley, Surrey (United Kingdom); Nicholson, Andrew G. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Histopathology, London (United Kingdom); Wells, Athol U. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Interstitial Lung Disease Unit, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    The study aims were to identify CT features that predict outcome of fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) when information from lung biopsy data is unavailable. HRCTs of 146 consecutive patients presenting with fibrotic IIP were studied. Visual estimates were made of the extent of abnormal lung and proportional contribution of fine and coarse reticulation, microcystic (cysts {<=}4 mm) and macrocystic honeycombing. A score for severity of traction bronchiectasis was also assigned. Using death as our primary outcome measure, variables were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. CT features predictive of a worse outcome were coarse reticulation, microcystic and macrocystic honeycombing, as well as overall extent of lung abnormality (p < 0.001). Importantly, increased severity of traction bronchiectasis, corrected for extent of parenchymal abnormality, was predictive of poor prognosis regardless of the background pattern of abnormal lung (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). On bivariate Cox analysis microcystic honeycombing was a more powerful determinant of a poor prognosis than macrocystic honeycombing. In fibrotic IIPs we have shown that increasingly severe traction bronchiectasis is indicative of higher mortality irrespective of the HRCT pattern and extent of disease. Extent of microcystic honeycombing is a more powerful determinant of outcome than macrocystic honeycombing. (orig.)

  17. Illness Beliefs Predict Mortality in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedhara, Kavita; Dawe, Karen; Miles, Jeremy N. V.; Wetherell, Mark A.; Cullum, Nicky; Dayan, Colin; Drake, Nicola; Price, Patricia; Tarlton, John; Weinman, John; Day, Andrew; Campbell, Rona; Reps, Jenna; Soria, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients’ illness beliefs have been associated with glycaemic control in diabetes and survival in other conditions. Objective We examined whether illness beliefs independently predicted survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. Methods Patients (n = 169) were recruited between 2002 and 2007. Data on illness beliefs were collected at baseline. Data on survival were extracted on 1st November 2011. Number of days survived reflected the number of days from date of recruitment to 1st November 2011. Results Cox regressions examined the predictors of time to death and identified ischemia and identity beliefs (beliefs regarding symptoms associated with foot ulceration) as significant predictors of time to death. Conclusions Our data indicate that illness beliefs have a significant independent effect on survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. These findings suggest that illness beliefs could improve our understanding of mortality risk in this patient group and could also be the basis for future therapeutic interventions to improve survival. PMID:27096609

  18. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, T

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...... at the Copenhagen University Hospital, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Denmark, from May to September 2012 were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study (n = 274). Vital signs were measured immediately after admission and consistently during the hospitalization period. Based on the vital signs, a single composite EWS...... the EWS at admission (AUROC 0.856; 95% CI 0.760-0.951; P-value score is a simple and valid...

  19. Fecal calprotectin in coeliac disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capone, Pietro; Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Caporaso, Nicola; Tortora, Raffaella

    2014-01-14

    We would like to share with the readers the results of our experience in 50 celiac disease (CD) patients, enrolled between September 2012 and April 2013, who were referred to our third-level CD Unit. The fecal calprotectin (FC) concentration of 50 adults with newly diagnosed CD was compared to that of a control group of 50 healthy subjects. FC level was determined by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay with diagnostic cut-off of 75 μg/g. In addition, we tried to correlate the FC level with symptoms, histological severity of CD (Marsh grade) and level of tissue transglutaminase antibodies (aTg) in CD patients. Finally, FC level was increased in five CD patients and in four controls (10% vs 8%, P = NS); mean FC concentration of patients and controls were 57.7 (SD ± 29.1) and 45.1 (SD ± 38.4) respectively. Furthermore, no significant correlation was seen between FC levels and symptoms/Marsh grade/aTg. The five CD patients did not show inflammatory lesions (e.g., ulcers, erosions) at upper endoscopy. The four healthy controls with positive FC were followed-up for further six months; in this observational period they did not show clinical signs of any underlying disease. On these bases, we think that FC is not able to investigate the subclinical inflammatory changes of active CD and FC should be considered a useless tool in the diagnostic work-up of uncomplicated CD but it should be accompanied by aTg when ruling out organic disease in patients with irritable bowel syndrome.

  20. Fecal calprotectin in coeliac disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capone, Pietro; Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Caporaso, Nicola; Tortora, Raffaella

    2014-01-01

    We would like to share with the readers the results of our experience in 50 celiac disease (CD) patients, enrolled between September 2012 and April 2013, who were referred to our third-level CD Unit. The fecal calprotectin (FC) concentration of 50 adults with newly diagnosed CD was compared to that of a control group of 50 healthy subjects. FC level was determined by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay with diagnostic cut-off of 75 μg/g. In addition, we tried to correlate the FC level with symptoms, histological severity of CD (Marsh grade) and level of tissue transglutaminase antibodies (aTg) in CD patients. Finally, FC level was increased in five CD patients and in four controls (10% vs 8%, P = NS); mean FC concentration of patients and controls were 57.7 (SD ± 29.1) and 45.1 (SD ± 38.4) respectively. Furthermore, no significant correlation was seen between FC levels and symptoms/Marsh grade/aTg. The five CD patients did not show inflammatory lesions (e.g., ulcers, erosions) at upper endoscopy. The four healthy controls with positive FC were followed-up for further six months; in this observational period they did not show clinical signs of any underlying disease. On these bases, we think that FC is not able to investigate the subclinical inflammatory changes of active CD and FC should be considered a useless tool in the diagnostic work-up of uncomplicated CD but it should be accompanied by aTg when ruling out organic disease in patients with irritable bowel syndrome. PMID:24574734

  1. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole B; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  2. Elevated calprotectin levels reveal bowel inflammation in spondyloarthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cypers, H; Varkas, G; Beeckman, S; Debusschere, K; Vogl, T; Roth, J; Drennan, M B; Lavric, M; Foell, D; Cuvelier, C A; De Vos, M; Delanghe, J; Van den Bosch, F; Elewaut, D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Microscopic bowel inflammation is present in up to 50% of patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) and is associated with more severe disease. Currently no reliable biomarkers exist to identify patients at risk. Calprotectin is a sensitive marker of neutrophilic inflammation, measurable in serum and stool. Objectives To assess whether serum and faecal calprotectin in addition to C-reactive protein (CRP) can be used to identify patients with SpA at risk of microscopic bowel inflammation. Methods Serum calprotectin and CRP were measured in 125 patients with SpA. In 44 of these patients, faecal samples were available for calprotectin measurement. All 125 patients underwent an ileocolonoscopy to assess the presence of microscopic bowel inflammation. Results Microscopic bowel inflammation was present in 53 (42.4%) patients with SpA. Elevated serum calprotectin and CRP were independently associated with microscopic bowel inflammation. Faecal calprotectin was also significantly higher in patients with microscopic bowel inflammation. Patients with CRP and serum calprotectin elevated had a frequency of bowel inflammation of 64% vs 25% in patients with low levels of both. When either CRP or serum calprotectin was elevated, the risk was intermediate (40%) and measuring faecal calprotectin provided further differentiation. Hence we suggest a screening approach where initially serum calprotectin and CRP are assessed and, if necessary, faecal calprotectin. The model using this scenario provided an area under the ROC curve of 74.4% for detection of bowel inflammation. Conclusions Calprotectin measurements in stool and serum, in addition to CRP, may provide a promising strategy to identify patients with SpA at risk of bowel inflammation and could play a role in overall patient stratification. PMID:26698844

  3. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  4. Serum calprotectin: a new potential biomarker for thyroid papillary carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabur, S; Korkmaz, H; Özkaya, M; Elboğa, U; Tarakçıoglu, M; Aksoy, N; Akarsu, E

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate serum calprotectin levels and oxidative stress status in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and the changes in their levels after total thyroidectomy. The study involved 30 patients with PTC and 30 healthy controls. Blood samples were obtained from the PTC patients before and 1 month after the operation. Preoperative and postoperative serum samples from PTC patients and healthy controls were analysed for calprotectin, total antioxidant status (TAS), total oxidant status (TOS) and lipid hydroperokside (LOOH). The preoperative calprotectin, TOS, OSI and LOOH levels of the patients with PTC were significantly higher compared to those of the control group (p calprotectin decreased significantly in patients with PTC after the operation (p calprotectin levels were positively correlated with TOS, OSI and LOOH levels and negatively correlated with TAS levels in patients with PTC. In conclusion, serum calprotectin levels is increased in patients with PTC, and calprotectin is positively correlated with TOS and LOOH. Serum calprotectin levels is significantly decreased after total thyroidectomy.

  5. Low expression of thiosulfate sulfurtransferase (rhodanese) predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krueger, Katharina; Koch, Kathrin; Jühling, Anja;

    2010-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients.......To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients....

  6. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy.......Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  7. Calprotectin as a Biomarker for Melioidosis Disease Progression and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natesan, Mohan; Corea, Enoka; Krishnananthasivam, Shivankari; Sathkumara, Harindra Darshana; Dankmeyer, Jennifer L; Dyas, Beverly K; Amemiya, Kei; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan; Ulrich, Robert G

    2017-04-01

    Melioidosis is a neglected tropical disease that is caused by the bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei and is underreported in many countries where the disease is endemic. A long and costly administration of antibiotics is needed to clear infections, and there is an unmet need for biomarkers to guide antibiotic treatment and increase the number of patients that complete therapy. We identified calprotectin as a lead biomarker of B. pseudomallei infections and examined correlations between this serum protein and the antibiotic treatment outcomes of patients with melioidosis. Serum levels of calprotectin and C-reactive protein were significantly higher in patients with melioidosis and nonmelioidosis sepsis than in healthy controls. Median calprotectin levels were higher in patients with melioidosis than in those with nonmelioidosis sepsis, whereas C-reactive protein levels were similar in both groups. Notably, intensive intravenous antibiotic treatment of patients with melioidosis resulted in lower levels of calprotectin and C-reactive protein (P < 0.0001), coinciding with recovery. The median percent reduction of calprotectin and C-reactive protein was 71% for both biomarkers after antibacterial therapy. In contrast, we found no significant differences in calreticulin levels between the two melioidosis treatment phases. Thus, reductions in serum calprotectin levels were linked to therapeutic responses to antibiotics. Our results suggest that calprotectin may be a sensitive indicator of melioidosis disease activity and illustrate the potential utility of this biomarker in guiding the duration of antibiotic therapy.

  8. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend;

    2008-01-01

    by sociodemographic and health variables including cognitive functioning. Only in women, stroke and diabetes remained statistically significant associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: The association between cognitive impairment and mortality reflects processes different from those underlying a simple relation between......OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link......, as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...

  9. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-03-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy.

  10. A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saul J Newman

    Full Text Available Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

  11. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  12. Mortality prediction models for pediatric intensive care : comparison of overall and subgroup specific performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Idse H. E.; Hazelzet, Jan A.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; Verlaat, Carin W. M.; Hogenbirk, Karin; van Woensel, Job B.; van Heerde, Marc; van Waardenburg, Dick A.; Jansen, Nicolaas J. G.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

    2013-01-01

    To validate paediatric index of mortality (PIM) and pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) models within the overall population as well as in specific subgroups in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Variants of PIM and PRISM prediction models were compared with respect to calibration (agreement be

  13. The impact of delirium on the prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boogaard, M.H.W.A. van den; Peters, S.A.; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Dagnelie, P.C.; Leffers, P.; Pickkers, P.; Schoonhoven, L.J.

    2010-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II

  14. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs : A validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, A. F.; Nielen, M.; Withrow, S. J.; Selmic, L. E.; Burton, J. H.; Klungel, O. H.; Groenwold, R. H H; Kirpensteijn, J.

    2016-01-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month mo

  15. Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels

    2013-01-01

    Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

  16. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...... was measured in plasma and serum. The Danish National Register of Patients was used to collect data on morbidity. The primary outcome in Cox regression analyses was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Women with low plasma BDNF (lowest tertile) had greater all-cause mortality risk than women with high plasma BDNF......-grade inflammation. No association was found between plasma BDNF and mortality in men, and serum BDNF did not influence mortality in either sex. CONCLUSION Low plasma BDNF is a novel, independent, and robust biomarker of mortality risk in old women. BDNF may be a central factor in the network of multimorbidity...

  17. A 6-Point TACS Score Predicts In-Hospital Mortality Following Total Anterior Circulation Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Adrian D; Gollop, Nicholas D; Bettencourt-Silva, Joao H; Clark, Allan B; Metcalf, Anthony K; Bowles, Kristian M; Flather, Marcus D; Potter, John F

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Little is known about the factors associated with in-hospital mortality following total anterior circulation stroke (TACS). We examined the characteristics and comorbidity data for TACS patients in relation to in-hospital mortality with the aim of developing a simple clinical rule for predicting the acute mortality outcome in TACS. Methods A routine data registry of one regional hospital in the UK was analyzed. The subjects were 2,971 stroke patients with TACS (82% ischemic; median age=81 years, interquartile age range=74–86 years) admitted between 1996 and 2012. Uni- and multivariate regression models were used to estimate in-hospital mortality odds ratios for the study covariates. A 6-point TACS scoring system was developed from regression analyses to predict in-hospital mortality as the outcome. Results Factors associated with in-hospital mortality of TACS were male sex [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.19], age (AOR=4.96 for ≥85 years vs. <65 years), hemorrhagic subtype (AOR=1.70), nonlateralization (AOR=1.75), prestroke disability (AOR=1.73 for moderate disability vs. no symptoms), and congestive heart failure (CHF) (AOR=1.61). Risk stratification using the 6-point TACS Score [T=type (hemorrhage=1 point) and territory (nonlateralization=1 point), A=age (65–84 years=1 point, ≥85 years=2 points), C=CHF (if present=1 point), S=status before stroke (prestroke modified Rankin Scale score of 4 or 5=1 point)] reliably predicted a mortality outcome: score=0, 29.4% mortality; score=1, 46.2% mortality [negative predictive value (NPV)=70.6%, positive predictive value (PPV)=46.2%]; score=2, 64.1% mortality (NPV=70.6, PPV=64.1%); score=3, 73.7% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=73.7%); and score=4 or 5, 81.2% mortality (NPV=70.6%, PPV=81.2%). Conclusions We have identified the key determinants of in-hospital mortality following TACS and derived a 6-point TACS Score that can be used to predict the prognosis of particular patients.

  18. Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change metr

  19. Lung Injury Prediction Score Is Useful in Predicting Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Mortality in Surgical Critical Care Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary M. Bauman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Lung injury prediction score (LIPS is valuable for early recognition of ventilated patients at high risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. This study analyzes the value of LIPS in predicting ARDS and mortality among ventilated surgical patients. Methods. IRB approved, prospective observational study including all ventilated patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit at a single tertiary center over 6 months. ARDS was defined using the Berlin criteria. LIPS were calculated for all patients and analyzed. Logistic regression models evaluated the ability of LIPS to predict development of ARDS and mortality. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve demonstrated the optimal LIPS value to statistically predict development of ARDS. Results. 268 ventilated patients were observed; 141 developed ARDS and 127 did not. The average LIPS for patients who developed ARDS was 8.8±2.8 versus 5.4±2.8 for those who did not (p<0.001. An ROC area under the curve of 0.79 demonstrates LIPS is statistically powerful for predicting ARDS development. Furthermore, for every 1-unit increase in LIPS, the odds of developing ARDS increase by 1.50 (p<0.001 and odds of ICU mortality increase by 1.22 (p<0.001. Conclusion. LIPS is reliable for predicting development of ARDS and predicting mortality in critically ill surgical patients.

  20. Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, J

    2012-09-01

    Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

  1. Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J. Wells

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent.Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD, heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS for CHD and stroke, respectively.Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062, heart failure (1408, stroke (1451, and mortality (3661. The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730, heart failure (0.753, stroke (0.688, and mortality (0.719. The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke.Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading “Type 2 Diabetes” and entitled, “Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality.” This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician’s choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

  2. The Role of Calprotectin in Pediatric Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Vaos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Calprotectin (CP is a calcium- and zinc-binding protein of the S100 family expressed mainly by neutrophils with important extracellular activity. The aim of the current review is to summarize the latest findings concerning the role of CP in a diverse range of inflammatory and noninflammatory conditions among children. Increasing evidence suggests the implication of CP in the diagnosis, followup, assessment of relapses, and response to treatment in pediatric pathological conditions, such as inflammatory bowel disease, necrotizing enterocolitis, celiac disease, intestinal cystic fibrosis, acute appendicitis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, Kawasaki disease, polymyositis-dermatomyositis, glomerulonephritis, IgA nephropathy, malaria, HIV infection, hyperzincemia and hypercalprotectinemia, and cancer. Further studies are required to provide insights into the actual role of CP in these pathological processes in pediatrics.

  3. Relevance of fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin in the postoperative management of inflammatory bowel diseases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Roberta Caccaro; Imerio Angriman; Renata D’Incà

    2016-01-01

    The role of fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin has been extensively studied in many areas of inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) patients’ management. The postoperative setting in both Crohn’s disease(CD) and ulcerative colitis(UC) patients has been less investigated although few promising results come from small, crosssectional studies. Therefore, the current post-operative management still requires endoscopy 6-12 mo after intestinal resection for CD in order to exclude endoscopic recurrence and plan the therapeutic strategy. In patients who underwent restorative proctocolectomy, endoscopy is required whenever symptoms includes the possibility of pouchitis. There is emerging evidence that fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin are useful surrogate markers of inflammation in the post-operative setting, they correlate with the presence and severity of endoscopic recurrence according to Rutgeerts’ score and possibly predict the subsequent clinical recurrence and response to therapy in CD patients. Similarly, fecal markers show a good correlation with the presence of pouchitis, as confirmed by endoscopy in operated UC patients. Fecal calprotectin seems to be able to predict the short-term development of pouchitis in asymptomatic patients and to vary according to response to medical treatment. The possibility of both fecal markers to used in the routine clinical practice for monitoring IBD patients in the postoperative setting should be confirmed in multicentric clinical trial with large sample set. An algorithm that can predict the optimal use and timing of fecal markers testing, the effective need and timing of endoscopy and the cost-effectiveness of these as a strategy of care would be of great interest.

  4. Predicting mortality in the intensive care unit: a comparison of the University Health Consortium expected probability of mortality and the Mortality Prediction Model III

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Background Quality benchmarks are increasingly being used to compare the delivery of healthcare, and may affect reimbursement in the future. The University Health Consortium (UHC) expected probability of mortality (EPM) is one such quality benchmark. Although the UHC EPM is used to compare quality across UHC members, it has not been prospectively validated in the critically ill. We aimed to define the performance characteristics of the UHC EPM in the critically ill and compare its ability to ...

  5. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Williams, A.P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.J.; Mackay, D.S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Allen, Craig D.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Koven, C.

    2015-01-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  6. Hemoglobin Screening Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Determine if the addition of hemoglobin testing improves risk prediction for life insurance applicants. Method .- Hemoglobin results for insurance applicants tested from 1993 to 2007, with vital status determined by Social Security Death Master File follow-up in 2011, were analyzed by age and sex with and without accounting for the contribution of other test results. Results .- Hemoglobin values ≤12.0 g/dL (and possibly ≤13.0 g/dL) in females age 50+ (but not age 15.0 g/dL (and possibly >14.0 g/dL) for all females and for hemoglobin values >16.0 g/dL for males. Conclusion .- Hemoglobin testing can add additional independent risk assessment to that obtained from other laboratory testing, BP and build in this relatively healthy insurance applicant population. Multiple studies support this finding at older ages, but data (and the prevalence of diseases impacting hemoglobin levels) are limited at younger ages.

  7. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior.

  8. Plasma levels of catecholamines and asymmetric dimethylarginine levels as predictive values of mortality among hemodialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dziedzic Marcin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to assess plasma concentration of catecholamines and asymmetric dimethyl arginine levels and a possible relationship to predict the mortality rates among hemodialysis patients. The study population comprised 27 subjects, aged 65-70 years. Each patient underwent dialysis thrice a week. Furthermore, the median duration of hemodialysis was 3.5 years. Based on the conducted research, it can be concluded that the concentrations of adrenaline and the level of asymmetric dimethylarginine have predictive value of mortality among hemodialysis patients. Of note, lowering plasma asymmetric dimethylarginine concentration may represent therapeutic target for prevention of progressive renal damage.

  9. Calprotectin is released from human skeletal muscle tissue during exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Ole Hartvig; Andersen, Kasper; Fischer, Christian

    2008-01-01

    in skeletal muscle following IL-6 infusion compared to controls. Furthermore, S100A8 and S100A9 mRNA levels were up-regulated 5-fold in human skeletal muscle following cycle ergometer exercise for 3 h at approximately 60% of in young healthy males (n = 8). S100A8 and S100A9 form calprotectin, which is known...... as an acute phase reactant. Plasma calprotectin increased 5-fold following acute cycle ergometer exercise in humans, but not following IL-6 infusion. To identify the source of calprotectin, healthy males (n = 7) performed two-legged dynamic knee extensor exercise for 3 h with a work load of approximately 50......% of peak power output and arterial-femoral venous differences were obtained. Arterial plasma concentrations for calprotectin increased 2-fold compared to rest and there was a net release of calprotectin from the working muscle. In conclusion, IL-6 infusion and muscle contractions induce expression of S100A...

  10. Faecal calprotectin in the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burri, Emanuel; Beglinger, Christoph

    2011-01-01

    Suspicion of inflammatory bowel disease should be raised in any patient with chronic or recurrent abdominal pain and diarrhoea. However, symptoms of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) overlap with functional gastrointestinal disorders and those patients may not need endoscopy. Currently, colonoscopy with multiple biopsies is considered the gold standard to establish the diagnosis of IBD. Unfortunately, patient selection for endoscopy based on symptoms is not reliable. The use of guidelines of appropriateness for endoscopy yields significantly more significant findings but the selection criteria suffer from low specificity. Calprotectin is a calcium binding protein of neutrophil granulocytes that correlates well with neutrophil infiltration of the intestinal mucosa when measured in faeces. In the last decade, a large body of evidence on the diagnostic value of faecal calprotectin has accumulated and measurement of calprotectin in faeces has been suggested as a surrogate marker of intestinal inflammation. Testing of faecal calprotectin has been highly useful to distinguish organic from functional intestinal disorders in patients with abdominal complaints. Additionally, faecal calprotectin has reliably identified colonic inflammation in patients with suspected IBD. The use of this inexpensive and widely available test in the evaluation and risk stratification in patients with abdominal complaints is likely to increase in the future.

  11. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size......For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace......, and with estimates from a comprehensive compilation of empirical data on the natural mortality of marine fishes. The comparisons are all in aggreement with the predictions from the model. We conclude that natural mortality scales with body length raised to a power around -1.6, with the asymptotic length...

  12. Zinc sequestration by the neutrophil protein calprotectin enhances Salmonella growth in the inflamed gut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Janet Z; Jellbauer, Stefan; Poe, Adam J; Ton, Vivian; Pesciaroli, Michele; Kehl-Fie, Thomas E; Restrepo, Nicole A; Hosking, Martin P; Edwards, Robert A; Battistoni, Andrea; Pasquali, Paolo; Lane, Thomas E; Chazin, Walter J; Vogl, Thomas; Roth, Johannes; Skaar, Eric P; Raffatellu, Manuela

    2012-03-15

    Neutrophils are innate immune cells that counter pathogens by many mechanisms, including release of antimicrobial proteins such as calprotectin to inhibit bacterial growth. Calprotectin sequesters essential micronutrient metals such as zinc, thereby limiting their availability to microbes, a process termed nutritional immunity. We find that while calprotectin is induced by neutrophils during infection with the gut pathogen Salmonella Typhimurium, calprotectin-mediated metal sequestration does not inhibit S. Typhimurium proliferation. Remarkably, S. Typhimurium overcomes calprotectin-mediated zinc chelation by expressing a high affinity zinc transporter (ZnuABC). A S. Typhimurium znuA mutant impaired for growth in the inflamed gut was rescued in the absence of calprotectin. ZnuABC was also required to promote the growth of S. Typhimurium over that of competing commensal bacteria. Thus, our findings indicate that Salmonella thrives in the inflamed gut by overcoming the zinc sequestration of calprotectin and highlight the importance of zinc acquisition in bacterial intestinal colonization.

  13. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Johan Erik; Itenov, Theis Skovsgaard; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common and serious complication in patients requiring mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit. The aims of this study were to identify models used to predict mortality in VAP patients and to assess their prognostic accuracy. METHODS...

  14. Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O. Segura; A. Burdorf (Alex); C.W.N. Looman (Caspar)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractAIMS: To predict the expected number of pleural mesothelioma deaths in the Netherlands from 2000 to 2028 and to study the effect of main uncertainties in the modelling technique. METHODS: Through an age-period-cohort modelling technique, age specific mortality rates and

  15. Clinical picture and risk prediction of short-term mortality in cardiogenic shock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Lassus, Johan; Sionis, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical picture and outcome of cardiogenic shock and to develop a risk prediction score for short-term mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CardShock study was a multicentre, prospective, observational study conducted between 2010 and 2012. Patie...

  16. Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2012-04-01

    Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

  17. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hanc, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-10-01

    The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality.At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed.A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality.The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group.

  18. Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Fuscaldi Almeida

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453, and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system, cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

  19. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos T Nakas

    Full Text Available Electronic Health Record (EHR data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858. Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872. Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively. Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures.

  20. Non-linear feature extraction from HRV signal for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi Moridani, Mohammad; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Motie Nasrabadi, Ali; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

    2016-01-01

    Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at risk of in-ICU morbidities and mortality, making specific systems for identifying at-risk patients a necessity for improving clinical care. This study presents a new method for predicting in-hospital mortality using heart rate variability (HRV) collected from the times of a patient's ICU stay. In this paper, a HRV time series processing based method is proposed for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patients. HRV signals were obtained measuring R-R time intervals. A novel method, named return map, is then developed that reveals useful information from the HRV time series. This study also proposed several features that can be extracted from the return map, including the angle between two vectors, the area of triangles formed by successive points, shortest distance to 45° line and their various combinations. Finally, a thresholding technique is proposed to extract the risk period and to predict mortality. The data used to evaluate the proposed algorithm obtained from 80 cardiovascular ICU patients, from the first 48 h of the first ICU stay of 40 males and 40 females. This study showed that the angle feature has on average a sensitivity of 87.5% (with 12 false alarms), the area feature has on average a sensitivity of 89.58% (with 10 false alarms), the shortest distance feature has on average a sensitivity of 85.42% (with 14 false alarms) and, finally, the combined feature has on average a sensitivity of 92.71% (with seven false alarms). The results showed that the last half an hour before the patient's death is very informative for diagnosing the patient's condition and to save his/her life. These results confirm that it is possible to predict mortality based on the features introduced in this paper, relying on the variations of the HRV dynamic characteristics.

  1. Accuracy of 99mTc (V)-Dimercaptosuccinic Acid Scintigraphy and Fecal Calprotectin Compared with Colonoscopy in Localizing Active Lesions in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basirat, Vahid; Azizi, Zahra; Javid Anbardan, Sanam; Taghizadeh Asl, Mina; Farbod, Yasaman; Teimouri, Azam; Ebrahimi Daryani, Nasser

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Due to limitation of colonoscopy in assessing the entire bowel and patients’ intolerance in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), in the current study, we aimed to prospectively compare the accuracy of 99mTc(V)-dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) and fecal calprotectin with ileocolonoscopy as new methods for localizing inflammations. METHODS Current prospective study conducted between 2012 and 2014 on 30 patients with IBD attending Gastroenterology Clinic of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Fecal calprotectin and disease activity were measured for all participants and all of them underwent 99mTc (V)-DMSA scintigraphy and colonoscopy. The accuracy of 99mTc (V)-DMSA scintigraphy and calprotectin in localizing bowel lesions were calculated. RESULTS A total of 22 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 8 patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) were evaluated in our study. Sensitivity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and positive predictive value (PPV) of scintigraphy and calprotectin over colonoscopy in localization of UC lesions were 86.36%, 0.86%, 100.00% and 90.91%, 0.91, and 100.00%, respectively. Meanwhile, it showed 66.67% sensitivity and 81.25% specificity with PLR=3.56, negative likelihood ratio (NLR)=0.41, PPV=84.21%, and negative predictive value (NPV)= 61.90% in localizing lesions in patients with CD. The calprotectin level had sensitivity, PLR, and PPV of 90.00%, 0.90, and 100.00% in detecting active disease over colonoscopy, respectively. CONCLUSION The 99mTc (V)-DMSA scintigraphy would be an accurate method for detecting active inflammation in follow-up of patients with IBD and assessing response to treatment as a non-invasive and complementary method beside colonoscopy for more accurate diagnosis of CD or UC. PMID:27698971

  2. The predictive value of fatigue for nonfatal ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekmann, Anette; Osler, Merete; Avlund, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether fatigue predicts nonfatal ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality in middle-aged men. Methods The study population consisted of 5216 middle-aged men born in the Copenhagen metropolitan area in 1953. At baseline, men free of angina pectoris and previou...... is a potential risk indicator for IHD and mortality. Further research is needed to establish the role of smoking and other life-style characteristics.......% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09-3.61) and all-cause mortality (HR = 3.99, 95% CI = 2.27-7.02). These associations became nonsignificant in multivariable-adjusted models (HR = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.82-3.01 and HR = 1.90, 95% CI = 0.95-3.80). Imputation of missing data did not modify conclusions. Fatigue...

  3. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria > 30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥ 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9 ± 18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R > 1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R > 3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R > 5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions.

  4. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  5. A simple tool for mortality prediction in burns patients: APACHE III score and FTSA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, E C; Pilcher, D V; Bailey, M J; Cleland, H; McNamee, J

    2010-11-01

    Prediction of outcome for patients with major thermal injury is important to inform clinical decision making, alleviate individual suffering and improve hospital resource allocation. Age and burn size are widely accepted as the two largest contributors of mortality amongst burns patients. The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) III-j score, which incorporates patient age, is also useful for mortality prediction, of intensive care populations. Validation for the burns specific cohort is unclear. A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) via the Victorian Adult Burns Service (VABS), to compare observed mortality with burns specific markers of illness severity and APACHE III-j score. Our primary aim was to develop a mortality prediction tool for the burns population. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2008, 228 patients were admitted to the ICU at The Alfred with acute burns. The mean age was 45.6 years and 81% (n=184) were male. Patients had severe injuries: the average percent TBSA (total body surface area) was 28% (IQR 10-40) and percent FTSA (full thickness surface area) was 18% (IQR 10-25). 86% (n=197) had airway involvement. Overall mortality in the 7-year period was 12% (n=27). Non-survivors were older, had larger and deeper burns, a higher incidence of deliberate self-harm, higher APACHE III-j scores and spent less time in hospital (but similar time in ICU), compared with survivors. Independent risk factors for death were percent FTSA (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p=0.01) and APACHE III-j score (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07, pAPACHE III-j score and percent FTSA. Prospective validation of our model on different burn populations is necessary.

  6. Cystatin C at Admission in the Intensive Care Unit Predicts Mortality among Elderly Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalboni, Maria Aparecida; Beraldo, Daniel de Oliveira; Quinto, Beata Marie Redublo; Blaya, Rosângela; Narciso, Roberto; Oliveira, Moacir; Monte, Júlio César Martins; Durão, Marcelino de Souza; Cendoroglo, Miguel; Pavão, Oscar Fernando; Batista, Marcelo Costa

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. Cystatin C has been used in the critical care setting to evaluate renal function. Nevertheless, it has also been found to correlate with mortality, but it is not clear whether this association is due to acute kidney injury (AKI) or to other mechanism. Objective. To evaluate whether serum cystatin C at intensive care unit (ICU) entry predicts AKI and mortality in elderly patients. Materials and Methods. It was a prospective study of ICU elderly patients without AKI at admission. We evaluated 400 patients based on normality for serum cystatin C at ICU entry, of whom 234 (58%) were selected and 45 (19%) developed AKI. Results. We observed that higher serum levels of cystatin C did not predict AKI (1.05 ± 0.48 versus 0.94 ± 0.36 mg/L; P = 0.1). However, it was an independent predictor of mortality, H.R. = 6.16 (95% CI 1.46-26.00; P = 0.01), in contrast with AKI, which was not associated with death. In the ROC curves, cystatin C also provided a moderate and significant area (0.67; P = 0.03) compared to AKI (0.47; P = 0.6) to detect death. Conclusion. We demonstrated that higher cystatin C levels are an independent predictor of mortality in ICU elderly patients and may be used as a marker of poor prognosis.

  7. Modified Glasgow Coma Scale to predict mortality in febrile unconscious children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, P; Kishore, M

    2001-04-01

    A prospective hospital based study was conducted in the Department of Pediatrics of the Kasturba Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Sevagram, Wardha to predict the mortality in children admitted with fever and unconsciousness using the Modified Glasgow Coma Scale (MGCS) score. Forty eight children were admitted with fever and unconsciousness; cases of febrile convulsions, epilepsy and cerebral palsy were excluded. MGCS scores were assessed on admission and repeated at 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours after admission in each case. Diagnosis in each case was confirmed by history, examinations and investigations. All the cases were regularly followed up till death/discharge. The overall mortality was 29.1% (14/48) out of which 85% (12/14) died within the first 24 hours. Mortality was highest in the toddler age group and in patients with pyogenic meningitis. There was a significant association between death and MGCS scores on admission with a post test probability for discharge being only 10% with a score of less than 5 and 99% with a score of more than 10 respectively. MGCS scores on admission can be used to predict mortality in patients hospitalized with fever and unconsciousness. The scale is simple, easy, can be applied at bed side and does not need any investigations. Its application in developing countries with limited investigative and intensive care facilities can help the treating physician decide regarding referral and counseling the parents regarding the probable clinical outcome.

  8. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  9. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Carrara

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  10. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrara, Marta; Baselli, Giuseppe; Ferrario, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients. PMID:26557154

  11. Factors predicting mortality after tips for refractory ascites: a single center experience

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the s...

  12. Automated Prediction of Early Blood Transfusion and Mortality in Trauma Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-24

    have recently been reviewed.29 Advanced radiologic tools such as CT scan and Focused As- sessment with Sonography in Trauma ( FAST ) scans and labo- ratory... trauma patients 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Colin F. Mackenzie, MBChB, Yulei Wang, MS, Peter...13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prediction of blood transfusion needs and mortality for trauma patients in near real time is an unrealized goal

  13. Does Parsonnet scoring model predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in India?

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    Moningi Srilata

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate the Parsonnet scoring model to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: A total of 889 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between January 2010 and April 2011 were included in the study. The Parsonnet score was determined for each patient and its predictive ability for in-hospital mortality was evaluated. The validation of Parsonnet score was performed for the total data and separately for the sub-groups coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG, valve surgery and combined procedures (CABG with valve surgery. The model calibration was performed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristics (ROC analysis for discrimination. Independent predictors of mortality were assessed from the variables used in the Parsonnet score by multivariate regression analysis. Results: The overall mortality was 6.3% (56 patients, 7.1% (34 patients for CABG, 4.3% (16 patients for valve surgery and 16.2% (6 patients for combined procedures. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was <0.05 for the total data and also within the sub-groups suggesting that the predicted outcome using Parsonnet score did not match the observed outcome. The area under the ROC curve for the total data was 0.699 (95% confidence interval 0.62-0.77 and when tested separately, it was 0.73 (0.64-0.81 for CABG, 0.79 (0.63-0.92 for valve surgery (good discriminatory ability and only 0.55 (0.26-0.83 for combined procedures. The independent predictors of mortality determined for the total data were low ejection fraction (odds ratio [OR] - 1.7, preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (OR - 10.7, combined procedures (OR - 5.1, dialysis dependency (OR - 23.4, and re-operation (OR - 9.4. Conclusions: The Parsonnet score yielded a good predictive value for valve surgeries, moderate predictive value for the total data and for CABG and poor predictive value for combined procedures.

  14. Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, V E; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I; Pneumatikos, I A

    2013-11-01

    A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection.

  15. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-11-15

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  16. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carla Pereira de Araujo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1 or positive (G2 for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%. During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016. The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022 and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

  17. Speckle tracking echocardiography detects uremic cardiomyopathy early and predicts cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramann, Rafael; Erpenbeck, Johanna; Schneider, Rebekka K; Röhl, Anna B; Hein, Marc; Brandenburg, Vincent M; van Diepen, Merel; Dekker, Friedo; Marx, Nicolaus; Floege, Jürgen; Becker, Michael; Schlieper, Georg

    2014-10-01

    Cardiovascular mortality is high in ESRD, partly driven by sudden cardiac death and recurrent heart failure due to uremic cardiomyopathy. We investigated whether speckle-tracking echocardiography is superior to routine echocardiography in early detection of uremic cardiomyopathy in animal models and whether it predicts cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing dialysis. Using speckle-tracking echocardiography in two rat models of uremic cardiomyopathy soon (4-6 weeks) after induction of kidney disease, we observed that global radial and circumferential strain parameters decreased significantly in both models compared with controls, whereas standard echocardiographic readouts, including fractional shortening and cardiac output, remained unchanged. Furthermore, strain parameters showed better correlations with histologic hallmarks of uremic cardiomyopathy. We then assessed echocardiographic and clinical characteristics in 171 dialysis patients. During the 2.5-year follow-up period, ejection fraction and various strain parameters were significant risk factors for cardiovascular mortality (primary end point) in a multivariate Cox model (ejection fraction hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.95 to 0.99; P=0.012]; peak global longitudinal strain HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.28; P<0.001]; peak systolic and late diastolic longitudinal strain rates HRs, 4.7 [95% CI, 1.23 to 17.64; P=0.023] and 0.25 [95% CI, 0.08 to 0.79; P=0.02], respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed circumferential early diastolic strain rate, among others, as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (secondary end point; HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.74; P=0.002). Together, these data support speckle tracking as a postprocessing echocardiographic technique to detect uremic cardiomyopathy and predict cardiovascular mortality in ESRD.

  18. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  19. Cardiac Troponin Elevation Predicts Mortality in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Snipelisky

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. While patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT have high cardiovascular event rates, preoperative risk stratification may not necessarily predict those susceptible patients. Troponin T (TnT may help predict patients at risk for cardiovascular complications. Methods. Consecutive patients undergoing OLT at Mayo Clinic in Florida between 1998 and 2010 who had TnT obtained within 10 days following surgery were included. Three groups were compared based on TnT level: (1 normal (TnT ≤0.01 ng/mL, (2 intermediate (TnT 0.02–0.11 ng/mL, and (3 elevated (TnT >0.11 ng/mL. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was assessed. Results. Of the 78 patients included, there was no difference in age, gender, severity of liver disease, and echocardiographic findings. Patients in the normal and intermediate TnT groups had a lower overall mortality rate (14.3% and 0%, resp. when compared with those with elevated TnT (50%; P=0.001. Patients in the elevated TnT group had a cardiovascular mortality rate of 37.5% compared with 1.4% in the other groups combined (P<0.01. The elevated TnT group had a much higher mortality rate when compared with those in the intermediate group (P<0.0001. Conclusion. TnT may accurately help risk stratify patients in the early postoperative setting to better predict cardiovascular complications.

  20. Inflixmab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease rapidly decreases fecal calprotectin levels

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anssi H(a)m(a)l(a)inen; Taina Sipponen; Kaija-Leena Kolho

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To study the response to infliximab in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), as reflected in fecal calprotectin levels.METHODS: Thirty-six pediatric patients with IBD [23 Crohn’s disease (CD), 13 ulcerative colitis (UC); median age 14 years] were treated with infliximab. Fecal calprotectin was measured at baseline, and 2 and 6 wk after therapy, and compared to blood inflammatory markers. Maintenance medication was unaltered until the third infusion but glucocorticoids were tapered off if the patient was doing well.RESULTS: At introduction of infliximab, median fecal calprotectin level was 1150 μg/g (range 54-6032 μg/g). By week 2, the fecal calprotectin level had declined to a median 261 μg/g (P < 0.001). In 37% of the patients, fecal calprotectin was normal (< 100 μg/g) at 2 wk. By week 6, there was no additional improvement in the fecal calprotectin level (median 345 μg/g). In 22% of the patients, fecal calprotectin levels increased by week 6 to pretreatment levels or above, suggesting no response (or a loss of early response). Thus, in CD, the proportion of non-responsive patients by week 6 seemed lower, because only 9% showed no improvement in their fecal calprotectin level when compared to the respective figure of 46% of the UC patients (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION: When treated with infliximab, fecal calprotectin levels reflecting intestinal inflammation normalized rapidly in one third of pediatric patients suggesting complete mucosal healing.

  1. Chronic kidney disease predicts long-term mortality after major lower extremity amputation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Assi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite low peri-operative mortality after major lower extremity amputation, long-term mortality remains substantial. Metabolic syndrome is increasing in incidence and prevalence at an alarming rate in the USA. Aim: This study was to determine whether metabolic syndrome predicts outcome after major lower extremity amputation. Patients and Methods: A retrospective review of charts between July 2005 and June 2010. Results: Fifty-four patients underwent a total of 60 major lower extremity amputations. Sixty percent underwent below-knee amputation and 40% underwent above-knee amputation. The 30-day mortality was 7% with no difference in level (below-knee amputation, 8%; above-knee amputation, 4%; P = 0.53. The mean follow-up time was 39.7 months. The 5-year survival was 54% in the whole group, and was independent of level of amputation (P = 0.24 or urgency of the procedure (P = 0.51. Survival was significantly decreased by the presence of underlying chronic kidney disease (P = 0.04 but not by other comorbidities (history of myocardial infarction, P = 0.79; metabolic syndrome, P = 0.64; diabetes mellitus, P = 0.56. Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is not associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes after lower extremity amputation. However, patients with chronic kidney disease constitute a sub-group of patients at higher risk of postoperative long-term mortality and may be a group to target for intervention.

  2. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  3. Incidence, Mortality, and Predictive Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenichi Hosonuma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The study aims to analyze in detail the incidence, mortality using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR, and standardized mortality ratio (SMR of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC, because no large case studies have focused on the detailed statistical analysis of them in Asia. Methods. The study cohorts were consecutively diagnosed at Gunma University and its affiliated hospitals. Age- or sex-specific annual cancer incidence and deaths were obtained from Japanese Cancer Registry and Death Registry as a reference for the comparison of SIR or SMR of HCC. Moreover, univariate analyses and multivariate analyses were performed to clarify predictive factors for the incidence of HCC. Results. The overall 179 patients were followed up for a median of 97 months. HCC had developed in 13 cases. SIR for HCC was 11.6 (95% confidence interval (CI, 6.2–19.8 and SMR for HCC was 11.2 (95% CI, 5.4–20.6 in overall patients. The serum albumin levels were a predictive factor for the incidence of HCC in overall patients. Conclusions. The incidence and mortality of HCC in PBC patients were significantly higher than those in Japanese general population. PBC patients with low serum albumin levels were populations at high risk for HCC.

  4. Similar support for three different life course socioeconomic models on predicting premature cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynch John

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are at least three broad conceptual models for the impact of the social environment on adult disease: the critical period, social mobility, and cumulative life course models. Several studies have shown an association between each of these models and mortality. However, few studies have investigated the importance of the different models within the same setting and none has been performed in samples of the whole population. The purpose of the present study was to study the relation between socioeconomic position (SEP and mortality using different conceptual models in the whole population of Scania. Methods In the present investigation we use socioeconomic information on all men (N = 48,909 and women (N = 47,688 born between 1945 and 1950, alive on January, 1st,1990, and living in the Region of Scania, in Sweden. Focusing on three specific life periods (i.e., ages 10–15, 30–35 and 40–45, we examined the association between SEP and the 12-year risk of premature cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Results There was a strong relation between SEP and mortality among those inside the workforce, irrespective of the conceptual model used. There was a clear upward trend in the mortality hazard rate ratios (HRR with accumulated exposure to manual SEP in both men (p for trend Conclusion There was a strong relation between SEP and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, irrespective of the conceptual model used. The critical period, social mobility, and cumulative life course models, showed the same fit to the data. That is, one model could not be pointed out as "the best" model and even in this large unselected sample it was not possible to adjudicate which theories best describe the links between life course SEP and mortality risk.

  5. A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Helder Novais; Osório, Nuno S; Castro, António Gil; Ramos, Angélica; Carvalho, Teresa; Meira, Leonor; Araújo, David; Almeida, Leonor; Boaventura, Rita; Fragata, Patrícia; Chaves, Catarina; Costa, Patrício; Portela, Miguel; Ferreira, Ivo; Magalhães, Sara Pinto; Rodrigues, Fernando; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Duarte, Raquel; Guimarães, João Tiago; Saraiva, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8-7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity-HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease-(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-3.8), and hemoglobin <12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.1). A tuberculosis risk assessment tool (TReAT) was developed, stratifying patients with low (score ≤2), moderate (score 3-5) and high (score ≥6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment.

  6. A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osório, Nuno S.; Castro, António Gil; Ramos, Angélica; Carvalho, Teresa; Meira, Leonor; Araújo, David; Almeida, Leonor; Boaventura, Rita; Fragata, Patrícia; Chaves, Catarina; Costa, Patrício; Portela, Miguel; Ferreira, Ivo; Magalhães, Sara Pinto; Rodrigues, Fernando; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Duarte, Raquel; Guimarães, João Tiago; Saraiva, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin <12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). A tuberculosis risk assessment tool (TReAT) was developed, stratifying patients with low (score ≤2), moderate (score 3–5) and high (score ≥6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment. PMID:27636095

  7. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  8. MELD score can predict early mortality in patients with rebleeding after band ligation for variceal bleeding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei-Ting Chen; Cheng-Tang Chiu; Chun-Yen Lin; I-shyan Sheen; Chang-Wen Huang; Tsung-Nan Lin; Chun-Jung Lin; Wen-Juei Jeng; Chien-Hao Huang; Yu-Pin Ho

    2011-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the outcomes, as well as risk factors for 6-wk mortality, in patients with early rebleeding after endoscopic variceal band ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH). METHODS: Among 817 EVL procedures performed for EVH between January 2007 and December 2008, 128 patients with early rebleeding, defined as rebleeding within 6 wk after EVL, were enrolled for analysis. RESULT: The rate of early rebleeding after EVL for acute EVH was 15.6% (128/817). The 5-d, 6-wk, 3-mo, and 6-mo mortality rates were 7.8%, 38.3%, 55.5%, and 58.6%, respectively, in these early rebleeding patients. The use of beta-blockers, occurrence of hypovolemic shock, and higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score at the time of rebleeding were independent predictors for 6-wk mortality. A cut-off value of 21.5 for the MELD score was found with an area under ROC curve of 0.862 (P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 77.6%, 81%, 71.7%, and 85.3%, respectively. As for the 6-mo survival rate, patients with a MELD score ≥ 21.5 had a significantly lower survival rate than patients with a MELD score < 21.5 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the MELD score is an easy and powerful predictor for 6-wk mortality and outcomes of patients with early rebleeding after EVL for EVH.

  9. Predicting mortality of residents at admission to nursing home: A longitudinal cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallberg Ingalill

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing numbers of deaths occur in nursing homes. Knowledge of the course of development over the years in death rates and predictors of mortality is important for officials responsible for organizing care to be able to ensure that staff is knowledgeable in the areas of care needed. The aim of this study was to investigate the time from residents' admission to Icelandic nursing homes to death and the predictive power of demographic variables, health status (health stability, pain, depression and cognitive performance and functional profile (ADL and social engagement for 3-year mortality in yearly cohorts from 1996-2006. Methods The samples consisted of residents (N = 2206 admitted to nursing homes in Iceland in 1996-2006, who were assessed once at baseline with a Minimum Data Set (MDS within 90 days of their admittance to the nursing home. The follow-up time for survival of each cohort was 36 months from admission. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank test and non-parametric correlation analyses (Spearman's rho, variables associated with survival time with a p-value Results The median survival time was 31 months, and no significant difference was detected in the mortality rate between cohorts. Age, gender (HR 1.52, place admitted from (HR 1.27, ADL functioning (HR 1.33-1.80, health stability (HR 1.61-16.12 and ability to engage in social activities (HR 1.51-1.65 were significant predictors of mortality. A total of 28.8% of residents died within a year, 43.4% within two years and 53.1% of the residents died within 3 years. Conclusion It is noteworthy that despite financial constraints, the mortality rate did not change over the study period. Health stability was a strong predictor of mortality, in addition to ADL performance. Considering these variables is thus valuable when deciding on the type of service an elderly person needs. The mortality rate showed that more than 50% died within 3 years, and almost a third of

  10. Calprotectin and lactoferrin faecal levels in patients with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Swale

    Full Text Available Measurement of both calprotectin and lactoferrin in faeces has successfully been used to discriminate between functional and inflammatory bowel conditions, but evidence is limited for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI. We prospectively recruited a cohort of 164 CDI cases and 52 controls with antibiotic-associated diarrhoea (AAD. Information on disease severity, duration of symptoms, 30-day mortality and 90-day recurrence as markers of complicated CDI were recorded. Specimens were subject to microbiological culture and PCR-ribotyping. Levels of faecal calprotectin (FC and lactoferrin (FL were measured by ELISA. Statistical analysis was conducted using percentile categorisation. ROC curve analysis was employed to determine optimal cut-off values. Both markers were highly correlated with each other (r2 = 0.74 and elevated in cases compared to controls (p0.85, although we observed a large amount of variability across both groups. The optimal case-control cut-off point was 148 mg/kg for FC and 8.1 ng/µl for FL. Median values for FL in CDI cases were significantly greater in patients suffering from severe disease compared to non-severe disease (104.6 vs. 40.1 ng/µl, p = 0.02, but were not significant for FC (969.3 vs. 512.7 mg/kg, p = 0.09. Neither marker was associated with 90-day recurrence, prolonged CDI symptoms, positive culture results and colonisation by ribotype 027. Both FC and FL distinguished between CDI cases and AAD controls. Although FL was associated with disease severity in CDI patients, this showed high inter-individual variability and was an isolated finding. Thus, FC and FL are unlikely to be useful as biomarkers of complicated CDI disease.

  11. Fecal calprotectin is associated with disease activity in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran, Arzu; Kobak, Senol; Sen, Nazime; Aktakka, Seniha; Atabay, Tennur; Orman, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin is one of the major antimicrobial S100 leucocyte proteins. Serum calprotectin levels are associated with certain inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and inflammatory bowel disease. The aim of this study was to investigate serum and fecal calprotectin levels in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and show their potential relations to the clinical findings of the disease. Fifty-one patients fulfilling the New York criteria of AS and 43 healthy age- and gender-matched volunteers were included in the study. Physical and locomotor system examinations were performed and history data were obtained for all patients. Disease activity parameters were assessed together with anthropometric parameters. Routine laboratory examinations and genetic testing (HLA-B27) were performed. Serum calprotectin levels and fecal calprotectin levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The mean age of the patients was 41.5 years, the mean duration of the disease was 8.6 years, and the delay in diagnosis was 4.2 years. Serum calprotectin levels were similar in both AS patients and in the control group (p=0.233). Serum calprotectin level was correlated with Bath AS disease activity index (BASDAI) and Bath AS functional index (BASFI) (p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively). A higher level of fecal calprotectin was detected in AS patients when compared with the control group. A statistically significant correlation between fecal calprotectin level and BASDAI, BASFI, C-reactive protein and Erythrocyte sedimentation rate were detected (p=0.002, p=0.005, p=0.001, p=0.002, respectively). The results indicated that fecal calprotectin levels were associated with AS disease findings and activity parameters. Calprotectin is a vital disease activity biomarker for AS and may have an important role in the pathogenesis of the disease. Multi-centered prospective studies are needed in order to provide further insight.

  12. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  13. Predicting hospital mortality using APACHE II scores in neurocritically ill patients: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Ying-Ying; Li, Xia; Li, Si-jie; Luo, Rong; Ding, Jian-ping; Wang, Lin; Cao, Gui-hua; Wang, Dong-yu; Gao, Jin-xia

    2009-09-01

    Four versions of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation are limited in predicting hospital mortality for neurocritically ill patients. This prospective study aimed to develop and assess the accuracy of a modified APACHE II model in predicting mortality in neurologic intensive care unit (N-ICU). A total of 653 patients entered the study. APACHE II scores on admission, and worst 24-, 48-, and 72-h scores were obtained. Neurologic diagnoses on admission were classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurologic infection, neuromuscular disease, and other neurologic diseases. We developed a modified APACHE II model based on the variables of the 72-h APACHE II score and disease category using a multivariate logistic regression procedure to estimate probability of death. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the modified APACHE II model using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-squared statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC). The modified APACHE II model had good discrimination (AU-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: chi (2) = 3.707, P = 0.834). The discrimination of the 72-h APACHE II score for cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, and neurologic infection was satisfactory, with AU-ROC of 0.858, 0.863, and 1.000, respectively, but it was poor in discriminating for the categories of other neurologic diseases and neuromuscular disease. The results showed that our modified APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for patients in N-ICU. It is more applicable to clinical practice than the previous model because of its simplicity and ease of use.

  14. Is SAPS 3 better than APACHE II at predicting mortality in critically ill transplant patients?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa M. de Oliveira

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This study compared the accuracy of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II at predicting hospital mortality in patients from a transplant intensive care unit. METHOD: A total of 501 patients were enrolled in the study (152 liver transplants, 271 kidney transplants, 54 lung transplants, 24 kidney-pancreas transplants between May 2006 and January 2007. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 was calculated using the global equation (customized for South America and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score; the scores were calculated within 24 hours of admission. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was generated, and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was calculated to identify the patients at the greatest risk of death according to Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used for statistically significant results and indicated a difference in performance over deciles. The standardized mortality ratio was used to estimate the overall model performance. RESULTS: The ability of both scores to predict hospital mortality was poor in the liver and renal transplant groups and average in the lung transplant group (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve = 0.696 for Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 and 0.670 for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II. The calibration of both scores was poor, even after customizing the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 score for South America. CONCLUSIONS: The low predictive accuracy of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores does not warrant the use of these scores in critically ill transplant patients.

  15. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Wu

    Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

  16. Echocardiographic findings predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality in left-sided native valve Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine K.; Park, Lawrence; Tong, Steven Y C;

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus left-sided native valve infective endocarditis (LNVIE) has higher complication and mortality rates compared with endocarditis from other pathogens. Whether echocardiographic variables can predict prognosis in S aureus LNVIE is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consec...

  17. Citric Acid Cycle Metabolites Predict the Severity of Myocardial Stunning and Mortality in Newborn Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldebrandt, Janus Adler; Støttrup, Nicolaj Brejnholt; Frederiksen, Christian Alcaraz;

    2016-01-01

    , which so far are undetermined. DESIGN: A total of 28 newborn pigs were instrumented with a microdialysis catheter in the right ventricle, and intercellular citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolite concentrations were determined at 20-minute intervals. Stunning was induced by 10 cycles...... animals (n = 8), concentrations of succinate (p citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolites reflects...... the presence of myocardial stunning and predicts mortality in acute noninfarct right ventricular heart failure in newborn pigs. This phenomenon occurs independently of the type of inotrope, suggesting that citric acid cycle intermediates represent potential markers of acute noninfarct heart failure....

  18. Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia: comparison of two periods and a predictive model of mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucieni de Oliveira Conterno

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Staphylococcus aureus is an important pathogen causing bacteremia, primarily affecting hospitalized patients. We studied the epidemiology of S. aureus bacteremia, comparing two periods (early and mid 1990s and developed a predictive model of mortality. A nested case-control was done. All 251 patients over 14 years old with positive blood cultures for S. aureus were selected. MRSA (methicillin resistant S. aureus was isolated in 63% of the cases. When comparing the two periods MRSA community-acquired bacteremia increased from 4% to 16% (p=0.01. There was no significant difference in the mortality rate between the two periods (39% and 33%, p=0.40. Intravascular catheters provoked 24% of the cases of bacteremia and were associated with the lowest rate of mortality. In a logistic regression analysis, three variables were associated with death: septic shock, source of bacteraemia and resistance to methicillin. The probability of dying among patients with MRSA and those with methicillin sensitive S. aureus bacteraemia ranged from 10% to 90% and from 4% to 76%, respectively, depending on the source of the bacteraemia and the occurrence of septic shock. The MRSA found in Brazil may be a particularly virulent strain.

  19. Can chronic gastritis cause an increase in fecal calprotectin concentrations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Massimo; Montalto; Antonella; Gallo; Gianluca; Ianiro; Luca; Santoro; Ferruccio; D; Onofrio; Riccardo; Ricci; Giovanni; Cammarota; Marcello; Covino; Monica; Vastola; Antonio; Gasbarrini; Giovanni; Gasbarrini

    2010-01-01

    AIM:To evaluate fecal calprotectin concentrations(FCCs) in subjects with chronic gastritis and the correlation between FCCs and gastritis activity score.METHODS:FCCs were measured in 61 patients with histological diagnosis of gastritis and in 74 healthy volunteers.Histological grading of gastritis was performed according to the updated Sydney gastritis classification.Patients were subdivided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of an active gastritis.Patients with chronic active gastritis were di...

  20. Prediction of risk of diabetic retinopathy for all-cause mortality, stroke and heart failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiao-Rong; Zhang, Yong-Peng; Bai, Lu; Zhang, Xue-Lian; Zhou, Jian-Bo; Yang, Jin-Kui

    2017-01-01

    Abstract To examine and quantify the potential relation between diabetic retinopathy (DR) and risk of all-cause mortality, stroke and heart failure (HF). The resources of meta-analysis of epidemiological observational studies were from Pub-med, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, conference, and proceedings. Random/fixed effects models were used to calculate pooled subgroup analysis stratified by different grades of DR was performed to explore the potential source of heterogeneity. Statistical manipulations were undertaken using program STATA. Of the included 25 studies, comprising 142,625 participants, 19 studies were concluded to find the relation of DR to all-cause mortality, 5 for stroke, and 3 for HF. Risk ratio (RR) for all-cause mortality with the presence of DR was 2.33 (95% CI 1.92–2.81) compared with diabetic individuals without DR. Evidences showed a higher risk of all-cause mortality associated with DR in patients with T2D or T1D (RR 2.25, 95% CI 1.91–2.65. RR 2.68, 95% CI 1.34–5.36). According to different grades of DR in patients with T2D, RR for all-cause mortality varied, the risk of nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) was 1.38 (1.11–1.70), while the risk of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) was 2.32 (1.75–3.06). There was no evidence of significant heterogeneity (Cochran Q test P = 0.29 vs 0.26, I2 = 19.6% vs 22.6%, respectively). Data from 5 studies in relation to DR and the risk of stroke showed that DR was significantly associated with increased risk of stroke (RR = 1.74, 95%CI: 1.35–2.24), compared with patients without DR. Furthermore, DR (as compared with individuals without DR) was associated with a marginal increased risk of HF in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) (n = 3 studies; RR 2.24, 95% CI 0.98–5.14, P = 0.056). Our results showed that DR increased the risk of all-cause mortality, regardless of the different stages, compared with the diabetic individuals without DR. DR predicted

  1. Rapid test for fecal calprotectin levels in children with crohn disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolho, K L; Turner, D; Veereman-Wauters, G

    2012-01-01

    Assessment of fecal calprotectin, a surrogate marker of mucosal inflammation, is a promising means to monitor therapeutic response in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease, especially if the result is readily available. We tested the performance of a novel calprotectin rapid test, Quantum Blue...

  2. Plasma calprotectin levels reflect disease severity in patients with chronic heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Louise Jn; Kistorp, Caroline Michaela Nervil; Bjerre, Mette

    2011-01-01

    Background: Low-grade inflammation has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential usefulness of the inflammatory protein calprotectin as a biomarker in CHF. Methods: Plasma calprotectin...

  3. A new rapid home test for faecal calprotectin in ulcerative colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elkjaer, M; Burisch, Johan; Hansen, V Voxen

    2010-01-01

    Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a time-consuming method for the measurement of faecal calprotectin. Two new quantitative rapid tests have been developed.......Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a time-consuming method for the measurement of faecal calprotectin. Two new quantitative rapid tests have been developed....

  4. Avoid Endoscopy in Children With Suspected Inflammatory Bowel Disease Who Have Normal Calprotectin Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heida, Anke; Holtman, Gea A.; Lisman-van Leeuwen, Yvonne; Berger, Marjolein Y.; van Rheenen, Patrick F.

    2016-01-01

    In children with suspected inflammatory bowel disease, adding calprotectin stool testing to the screening strategy has been recommended to distinguish organic from nonorganic disease. In this cohort study with historical controls, we could not confirm that screening with stool calprotectin improves

  5. Incidence, Mortality and Positive Predictive Value of Type 1 Cardiorenal Syndrome in Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimienta González, Raquel; Couto Comba, Patricia; Rodríguez Esteban, Marcos; Alemán Sánchez, José Juan; Hernández Afonso, Julio; Rodríguez Pérez, María del Cristo; Marcelino Rodríguez, Itahisa; Brito Díaz, Buenaventura; Elosua, Roberto; Cabrera de León, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine whether the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with cardiorenal syndrome subtype 1 (CRS1) in patients who were hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) was greater than the expected risk based on the sum of its components, to estimate the predictive value of CRS1, and to determine whether the severity of CRS1 worsens the prognosis. Methods Follow-up study of 1912 incident cases of ACS for 1 year after discharge. Cox regression models were estimated with time to event (in-hospital death, and readmission or death during the first year after discharge) as the dependent variable. Results The incidence of CRS1 was 9.2/1000 person-days of hospitalization (95% CI = 8.1–10.5), but these patients accounted for 56.6% (95% CI = 47.4–65.) of all mortality. The positive predictive value of CRS1 was 29.6% (95% CI = 23.9–36.0) for in-hospital death, and 51.4% (95% CI = 44.8–58.0) for readmission or death after discharge. The risk of in-hospital death from CRS1 (RR = 18.3; 95% CI = 6.3–53.2) was greater than the sum of risks associated with either acute heart failure (RR = 7.6; 95% CI = 1.8–31.8) or acute kidney injury (RR = 2.8; 95% CI = 0.9–8.8). The risk of events associated with CRS1 also increased with syndrome severity, reaching a RR of 10.6 (95% CI = 6.2–18.1) for in-hospital death at the highest severity level. Conclusions The effect of CRS1 on in-hospital mortality is greater than the sum of the effects associated with each of its components, and it increases with the severity of the syndrome. CRS1 accounted for more than half of all mortality, and its positive predictive value approached 30% in-hospital and 50% after discharge. PMID:27907067

  6. Sonoclot coagulation analysis: a useful tool to predict mortality in overt disseminated intravascular coagulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Peng; Yu, Min; Qian, Min; Tong, Huasheng; Su, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) contributes to high mortality. The study was performed to investigate Sonoclot as a potential predictor of 30-day survival in overt DIC. This cohort included 237 consecutive critically ill patients with overt DIC, admitted to a 15-bed multidisciplinary ICU between July 2010 and July 2013. Hemostasis was analyzed with Sonoclot, including activated clotting time (ACT), clot rate, and platelet function, as well as routine clotting test at admission to the critical care center. Sonoclot variables differed in survivors and nonsurvivors. Mean ACT was prolonged (289.9 ± 200.5 vs. 194.8 ± 126.6 s; P < 0.001) and platelet function (1.2 ± 0.9 vs. 1.6 ± 1.2; P = 0.010) was reduced in nonsurvivors. The clot rate was not different. Cox proportional-hazard model showed that ACT and platelet function correlated independently with survival (P < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis suggested that patients with one pathological Sonoclot findings have better outcome (P < 0.05). After ACT and platelet function were introduced, the receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve of model achieved 0.876 (P < 0.05), with a specificity of 82.6% and a sensitivity of 80.5% in prediction of 30-day survival by multivariate analyses. Our data suggest that the Sonoclot can predict mortality in critically ill patients with overt DIC.

  7. Serum calprotectin: review of its usefulness and validity in paediatric rheumatic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Anthea; Marsili, Manuela; Nozzi, Manuela; Faricelli, Raffaella; Chiarelli, Francesco; Breda, Luciana

    2015-01-01

    In most childhood rheumatic diseases, specific diagnostic markers are not yet available. Therefore, a major emphasis in medical research today is directed to the discovery of new inflammation molecules, like calprotectin. Calprotectin (MRP8/MRP14) is a complex of calcium- and zinc-binding proteins that belong to the S100 protein family. This protein is directly released by leukocytes during the interaction with inflammatory activated endothelium at the site of inflammation. Increased plasma calprotectin levels have been found in inflammatory chronic diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), multiple sclerosis, cystic fibrosis and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In these diseases, serum calprotectin has been shown to correlate with disease activity and laboratory variables of inflammation such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). This review outlines the validity and the possible applications of calprotectin as a new inflammation marker in paediatric rheumatic diseases.

  8. explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

    2015-01-01

    Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

  9. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon Lee

    Full Text Available Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1 to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2 to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made.We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM to an intensive care unit (ICU database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care.The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR systems, our novel medical data analytics

  10. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  11. Increased non-Gaussianity of heart rate variability predicts cardiac mortality after an acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junichiro eHayano

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Non-Gaussianity index (λ is a new index of heart rate variability (HRV that characterizes increased probability of the large heart rate deviations from its trend. A previous study has reported that increased λ is an independent mortality predictor among patients with chronic heart failure. The present study examined predictive value of λ in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Among 670 post-AMI patients, we performed 24-hr Holter monitoring to assess λ and other HRV predictors, including standard deviation of normal-to-normal interval, very-low frequency power, scaling exponent α1 of detrended fluctuation analysis, deceleration capacity, and heart rate turbulence (HRT. At baseline, λ was not correlated substantially with other HRV indices (|r| <0.4 with either indices and was decreased in patients taking β-blockers (P = 0.04. During a median follow up period of 25 months, 45 (6.7% patients died (32 cardiac and 13 non-cardiac and 39 recurrent nonfatal AMI occurred among survivors. While all of these HRV indices but λ were significant predictors of both cardiac and non-cardiac deaths, increased λ predicted exclusively cardiac death (RR [95% CI], 1.6 [1.3-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P <0.0001. The predictive power of increased λ was significant even after adjustments for clinical risk factors, such as age, diabetes, left ventricular function, renal function, prior AMI, heart failure, and stroke, Killip class, and treatment ([95% CI], 1.4 [1.1-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P = 0.01. The prognostic power of increased λ for cardiac death was also independent of all other HRV indices and the combination of increased λ and abnormal HRT provided the best predictive model for cardiac death. Neither λ nor other HRV indices was an independent predictor of AMI recurrence. Among post-AMI patients, increased λ is associated exclusively with increased cardiac mortality risk and its predictive power is independent of clinical risk factors and

  12. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease...... (CAD). BACKGROUND: Non-hospitalized CAD patients are usually followed in general practice. There is a need for identify biomarkers which could help to foresee the prognoses of these patients. Elevated serum YKL-40 is a short-term predictor for myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality and all......-cause mortality in patients with stable CAD. METHODS: Serum YKL-40, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP were measured in 4265 (97.6%) of the 4372 patients with stable CAD included in the CLARICOR trial, and death was registered in a 6-years follow-up period. RESULTS: The median serum YKL-40 was 110 μg/L [IQR=93], hs-CRP 2.8 mg...

  13. Prognostic value of tissue Doppler imaging for predicting ventricular arrhythmias and cardiovascular mortality in ischaemic cardiomyopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Olsen, Flemming Javier; Storm, Katrine;

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Only 30% of patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention receive appropriately therapy. We sought to investigate the value of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) to predict ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), and cardiovascular...... mortality (CVD) in patients with primary prevention ICD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In total, 151 ICD patients meeting primary prevention criteria and with no history of ventricular arrhythmias were included. All participants were examined by conventional 2D echocardiography and TDI echocardiography. Longitudinal...... systolic (s'), early diastolic (e'), and late diastolic (a') myocardial velocities were measured using TDI at six mitral annular sites and averaged to provide global estimates. Forty patients experienced the combined endpoint of VT, VF, or CVD during a median follow-up of 2.3 years. Left ventricular...

  14. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  15. Heart rate-corrected QT interval helps predict mortality after intentional organophosphate poisoning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shou-Hsuan Liu

    intervals than among those with normal QTc intervals (Log-rank test, Chi-square test = 20.36, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: QTc interval helps predict mortality after intentional organophosphate poisoning.

  16. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle11,12. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology13, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  17. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  18. Increase in waist circumference over 6 years predicts subsequent cardiovascular disease and total mortality in nordic women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klingberg, Sofia; Mehlig, Kirsten; Lanfer, Anne

    2015-01-01

    and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women but that gain or loss in HC was unrelated to these outcomes. This study examines whether a 6-year change in waist circumference (WC) predicts mortality and CVD in the same study sample. METHODS: Baseline WC and 6-year change in WC as predictors of mortality and CVD......OBJECTIVE: Despite solid evidence of an association between centralized body fatness and subsequent disease risk, little is known about the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. Recently it was shown that large hip circumference (HC), measured once, was protective against total...

  19. Neutrophil extracellular traps contain calprotectin, a cytosolic protein complex involved in host defense against Candida albicans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin F Urban

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Neutrophils are the first line of defense at the site of an infection. They encounter and kill microbes intracellularly upon phagocytosis or extracellularly by degranulation of antimicrobial proteins and the release of Neutrophil Extracellular Traps (NETs. NETs were shown to ensnare and kill microbes. However, their complete protein composition and the antimicrobial mechanism are not well understood. Using a proteomic approach, we identified 24 NET-associated proteins. Quantitative analysis of these proteins and high resolution electron microscopy showed that NETs consist of modified nucleosomes and a stringent selection of other proteins. In contrast to previous results, we found several NET proteins that are cytoplasmic in unstimulated neutrophils. We demonstrated that of those proteins, the antimicrobial heterodimer calprotectin is released in NETs as the major antifungal component. Absence of calprotectin in NETs resulted in complete loss of antifungal activity in vitro. Analysis of three different Candida albicans in vivo infection models indicated that NET formation is a hitherto unrecognized route of calprotectin release. By comparing wild-type and calprotectin-deficient animals we found that calprotectin is crucial for the clearance of infection. Taken together, the present investigations confirmed the antifungal activity of calprotectin in vitro and, moreover, demonstrated that it contributes to effective host defense against C. albicans in vivo. We showed for the first time that a proportion of calprotectin is bound to NETs in vitro and in vivo.

  20. Neutrophil extracellular traps contain calprotectin, a cytosolic protein complex involved in host defense against Candida albicans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Constantin F; Ermert, David; Schmid, Monika; Abu-Abed, Ulrike; Goosmann, Christian; Nacken, Wolfgang; Brinkmann, Volker; Jungblut, Peter R; Zychlinsky, Arturo

    2009-10-01

    Neutrophils are the first line of defense at the site of an infection. They encounter and kill microbes intracellularly upon phagocytosis or extracellularly by degranulation of antimicrobial proteins and the release of Neutrophil Extracellular Traps (NETs). NETs were shown to ensnare and kill microbes. However, their complete protein composition and the antimicrobial mechanism are not well understood. Using a proteomic approach, we identified 24 NET-associated proteins. Quantitative analysis of these proteins and high resolution electron microscopy showed that NETs consist of modified nucleosomes and a stringent selection of other proteins. In contrast to previous results, we found several NET proteins that are cytoplasmic in unstimulated neutrophils. We demonstrated that of those proteins, the antimicrobial heterodimer calprotectin is released in NETs as the major antifungal component. Absence of calprotectin in NETs resulted in complete loss of antifungal activity in vitro. Analysis of three different Candida albicans in vivo infection models indicated that NET formation is a hitherto unrecognized route of calprotectin release. By comparing wild-type and calprotectin-deficient animals we found that calprotectin is crucial for the clearance of infection. Taken together, the present investigations confirmed the antifungal activity of calprotectin in vitro and, moreover, demonstrated that it contributes to effective host defense against C. albicans in vivo. We showed for the first time that a proportion of calprotectin is bound to NETs in vitro and in vivo.

  1. Fecal Calprotectin Dosage Value as A Diagnostic and Postoperative Marker in Diabetic Patients with Colorectal Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borza Ioan Lucian

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: We evaluated fecal calprotectin values in patients with colorectal neoplasms undergoing surgery, comparatively in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Material and Methods: We studied 40 patients operated for colorectal neoplasm, divided into two groups: one group of 20 patients with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes and another group of 20 patients without diabetes. Results: Patients had a high percentage of preoperative calprotectin test positivity (90%, 36 patients. A total of 19 patients in group 1 and 17 patients in group 2 had a positive calprotectin test. Postoperatively at 3 months, fecal calprotectin values remained elevated in 7 patients from group 1 and 4 patients from group 2. At 6 months postoperatively, fecal calprotectin values remained elevated in 2 patients from group 1 and 1 patient from group 2. Conclusions: Calprotectin values in faeces from patients with colorectal cancer were significantly increased, with a trend towards post-operatory normalization, slower in patients with diabetes. Fecal calprotectin value as a screening marker was almost equal compared to the hemoccult test, and better compared to that of the carcinoembryonic antigen.

  2. Calprotectin levels in patients with rheumatoid arthritis to assess and association with exercise treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, Ayse; Guzel, Savas; Sarifakioglu, Banu; Guzel, Eda Celik; Guzelant, Aliye Yildirim; Karadag, Ceyda; Kiziler, Lebriz

    2016-11-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, inflammatory, and autoimmune disease that can cause permanent joint damage. In our study, we aim to analyze the change in calprotectin levels following the low-density exercise levels applied to the patients with RA. Twenty-eight patients with RA and 30 healthy controls were included in this study. To evaluate the activity of disease in RA, scores of disease activity that has increased (DAS-28) are figured. Calprotectin, nitric oxide (NO), white blood cell (WBC) count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and rheumatoid factor (RF) levels are tested as the laboratory evaluation. Calprotectin, NO, CRP, ESR, WBC, and RF levels were significantly higher in the patient group compared to the control group (p calprotectin, and DAS-28, CRP, NO, RF, and WBC (p calprotectin, DAS-28, NO, CRP, ESR, and RF levels (p calprotectin levels and other inflammatory parameters. At the same time, it shows that calprotectin which is a significant indicator of local inflammation can be used as a good identifier in following up exercise treatment.

  3. Serum calprotectin--a promising diagnostic marker for adult-onset Still's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qian; Zha, Xicao; Li, Chun; Jia, Yuan; Zhu, Lei; Guo, Jianping; Su, Yin

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytosolic protein, mainly expressed in immune cells, such as neutrophils, monocytes, and macrophages. Our study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of calprotectin for adult-onset Still's disease (AOSD), by comparing serum calprotectin concentrations in patients with AOSD (n = 46), rheumatoid arthritis (RA, n = 34), primary Sjögren syndrome (pSS, n = 40), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, n = 39), osteoarthritis (OA, n = 20), and healthy controls (HCs, n = 49). Calprotectin concentrations were significantly higher in patients with AOSD (55.26 ± 18.00 ng/ml), compared to patients with RA (39.17 ± 18.90 ng/ml), pSS (35.31 ± 19.47 ng/ml), SLE (32.21 ± 25.01 ng/ml), OA (19.24 ± 10.67 ng/ml), and HCs (8.46 ± 5.17 ng/ml). All the differences were highly significant (p calprotectin was defined as 45.488 ng/ml, and its sensitivity and specificity for AOSD diagnosis were 63.0 and 80.1%, respectively. The positive rate of calprotectin was significantly higher in AOSD cases compared to patients with other diseases and healthy controls (p calprotectin was positively correlated with ferritin (r = 0.294, p calprotectin-positive patients compared to negative patients in AOSD (103.49 ± 20.21 g/l vs 115.71 ± 15.59 g/l, t = -2.142, p = 0.038). These findings suggest that serum calprotectin may serve as a promising marker for the diagnosis of AOSD and monitor disease activity to a certain extent.

  4. Mutation in APOA1 predicts increased risk of ischaemic heart disease and total mortality without low HDL cholesterol levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haase, C L; Frikke-Schmidt, R; Nordestgaard, B G

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine whether mutations in APOA1 affect levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and to predict risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and total mortality in the general population. BACKGROUND: Epidemiologically, risk of IHD is inversely related to HDL cholesterol le...... effects of mutations in adenovirus-transfected mice. RESULTS: We identified a new mutation, A164S (1 : 500 in the general population), which predicted hazard ratios for IHD, MI and total mortality of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-6.5], 5.5 (95% CI: 2.6-11.7) and 2.5 (95% CI: 1......164S heterozygotes had normal plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels, including HDL cholesterol and apoA-I, and this finding was confirmed in adenovirus-transfected mice. CONCLUSIONS: A164S is the first mutation in APOA1 to be described that predicts an increased risk of IHD, MI and total mortality...

  5. Multimarker proteomic profiling for the prediction of cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Lemesle

    Full Text Available Risk stratification of patients with systolic chronic heart failure (HF is critical to better identify those who may benefit from invasive therapeutic strategies such as cardiac transplantation. Proteomics has been used to provide prognostic information in various diseases. Our aim was to investigate the potential value of plasma proteomic profiling for risk stratification in HF. A proteomic profiling using surface enhanced laser desorption ionization - time of flight - mass spectrometry was performed in a case/control discovery population of 198 patients with systolic HF (left ventricular ejection fraction <45%: 99 patients who died from cardiovascular cause within 3 years and 99 patients alive at 3 years. Proteomic scores predicting cardiovascular death were developed using 3 regression methods: support vector machine, sparse partial least square discriminant analysis, and lasso logistic regression. Forty two ion m/z peaks were differentially intense between cases and controls in the discovery population and were used to develop proteomic scores. In the validation population, score levels were higher in patients who subsequently died within 3 years. Similar areas under the curves (0.66 - 0.68 were observed for the 3 methods. After adjustment on confounders, proteomic scores remained significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. Use of the proteomic scores allowed a significant improvement in discrimination of HF patients as determined by integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement indexes. In conclusion, proteomic analysis of plasma proteins may help to improve risk prediction in HF patients.

  6. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  7. Predictive Value of Carotid Distensibility Coefficient for Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Yuan

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC for cardiovascular (CV diseases and all-cause mortality.Arterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear.A meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed.Carotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06-1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects, 1.09 (1.01-1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects and 1.65 (1.15-2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects, respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively.Carotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases.

  8. Models to predict mortality of Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) exposed to elevated temperatures during structural heat treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Fuji; Subramanyam, Bhadriraju; Jayas, Digvir S; White, Noel D G

    2013-10-01

    Novel thermal death models were developed with certain assumptions, and these models were validated by using actual heat treatment data collected under laboratory conditions at constant temperatures over time and in commercial food-processing facilities where temperatures were dynamically changing over time. The predicted mortalities of both young larvae and adults of the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), were within 92-99% of actual measured insect mortalities. There was good concordance between predicted and observed mortalities of young larvae and adults of T. castaneum exposed to constant temperatures in laboratory growth chambers and at variable temperatures during structural heat treatments of commercial food-processing facilities. The models developed in this study can be used to determine effectiveness of structural heat treatments in killing young larvae and adults of T. castaneum and for characterizing insect thermotolerance.

  9. Plasma calprotectin and its association with cardiovascular disease manifestations, obesity and the metabolic syndrome in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lise; Nybo, M.; Poulsen, M. K.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Plasma calprotectin is a potential biomarker of cardiovascular disease (CVD), insulin resistance (IR), and obesity. We examined the relationship between plasma calprotectin concentrations, CVD manifestations and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2......DM) in order to evaluate plasma calprotectin as a risk assessor of CVD in diabetic patients without known CVD. Methods: An automated immunoassay for determination of plasma calprotectin was developed based on a fecal Calprotectin ELIA, and a reference range was established from 120 healthy adults....... Plasma calprotectin concentrations were measured in 305 T2DM patients without known CVD. They were screened for carotid arterial disease, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and myocardial ischemia (MI) by means of carotid artery ultrasonography, peripheral ankle and toe systolic blood pressure...

  10. Application of fecal calprotectin and myeloperoxidase in evaluation of disease activity of ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柏明见

    2013-01-01

    Objective To explore the clinical value of fecal calprotectin and myeloperoxidase in evaluation of ulcerative colitis(UC) activity.Methods Specimens of serum and feces over the same period were collected from

  11. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-11-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0-43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups.

  12. Low blood pressure predicts increased mortality in very old age even without heart failure: the Leiden 85-plus Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poortvliet, R.K.; Blom, J.W.; Craen, A.J. de; Mooijaart, S.P.; Westendorp, R.G.J.; Assendelft, W.J.J.; Gussekloo, J.; Ruijter, W. de

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To investigate whether low systolic blood pressure is predictive for increased mortality risk in 90-year-old subjects without heart failure, defined by low levels of NT-proBNP, as well as in 90-year-old subjects with high levels of NT-proBNP. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was embedded in the

  13. Pre-surgery Factors to Predict Mortality and Major Complications in Coronary Surgery with no Extracorporeal Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanier Coll Muñoz

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: mortality predicting models in cardiac surgery have been created based on certain population groups. It would be important to know their effectiveness in patients who underwent surgery with no extracorporeal circulation and cardioplegic cardiac arrest. Objective: To determine risk factors to predict mortality and major complications in revascularized patients with no use of extracorporeal circulation and to analyze the behaviour of two stratification models of preoperative risk in cardiac surgery. Methods: A prospective observational study conducted from January 2007 to December 2008 at the Cardiology Center of Santa Clara. The sample included 136 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting with no extracorporeal circulation. Variables collected prospectively were the basis to identify. Risk scales Parsonnet and EuroSCORE 97 were calculated for each patient. Their capacity to predict mortality and possible complications was analyzed through ROC curves. Results: Preoperative variables that significantly increased death risk and major complications were: history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of diabetes mellitus and three vessel coronary artery disease. Conclusions: Parsonnet and Euroscore 97 risk scales are accurate for mortality and major complications prediction in beating heart revascularization.

  14. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...

  15. Prediction of 30-day mortality after endovascular repair or open surgery in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, J.J.; Williams, M.A.; Kievit, J.; Bosch, J.L.; Hunink, M.G.M.; Teijink, J.A.; Verhoeven, E.L.; Smet, A.A. de; Geelkerken, R.H.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Sambeek, M.R. van

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) treated with endovascular repair or open surgery and to update the GAS so that it predicts 30-day mortality for patients with ruptured AAA treated with endovascular repair or open surg

  16. Plasma glucose and not hemoglobin or renal function predicts mortality in patients with STEMI complicated with cardiogenic shock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M. Vis; A.E. Engström; K.D. Sjauw; F.V. Tjong; J.,Jr Baan; K.T. Koch; H.J. de Vries; J.G. Tijssen; R.J. de Winter; J.J. Piek; J.P. Henriques

    2010-01-01

    Objective To assess the predictive value of three biomarkers for mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with cardiogenic shock. Background STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock accounts for the majority of STEMI related deaths. Patients with STEMI and hyperglycemia, anemia

  17. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anant Mohan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III, and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males. The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01. Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01. Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score based on SAPS II

  18. A comparison of administrative and physiologic predictive models in determining risk adjusted mortality rates in critically ill patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle B Enfield

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hospitals are increasingly compared based on clinical outcomes adjusted for severity of illness. Multiple methods exist to adjust for differences between patients. The challenge for consumers of this information, both the public and healthcare providers, is interpreting differences in risk adjustment models particularly when models differ in their use of administrative and physiologic data. We set to examine how administrative and physiologic models compare to each when applied to critically ill patients. METHODS: We prospectively abstracted variables for a physiologic and administrative model of mortality from two intensive care units in the United States. Predicted mortality was compared through the Pearsons Product coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. A subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department was analyzed to remove potential confounding changes in condition prior to ICU admission. RESULTS: We included 556 patients from two academic medical centers in this analysis. The administrative model and physiologic models predicted mortalities for the combined cohort were 15.3% (95% CI 13.7%, 16.8% and 24.6% (95% CI 22.7%, 26.5% (t-test p-value<0.001. The r(2 for these models was 0.297. The Bland-Atlman plot suggests that at low predicted mortality there was good agreement; however, as mortality increased the models diverged. Similar results were found when analyzing a subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department. When comparing the two hospitals, there was a statistical difference when using the administrative model but not the physiologic model. Unexplained mortality, defined as those patients who died who had a predicted mortality less than 10%, was a rare event by either model. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, while it has been shown that administrative models provide estimates of mortality that are similar to physiologic models in non-critically ill patients with pneumonia, our results

  19. Clinical value of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun-Ying Xiang; Qin Ouyang; Guo-Dong Li; Nan-Ping Xiao

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To investigate possibility and clinical application of fecal calprotectin in determining disease activity of ulcerative colitis (UC).METHODS: The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was used to measure the concentrations of calprotectin in feces obtained from 66 patients with UC and 20 controls. C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), acid glycoprotein (AGP) were also measured and were compared with calprotectin in determining disease activity of UC. The disease activity of UC was also determined by the Sutherland criteria.RESULTS: The fecal calprotectin concentration in the patients with active UC was significantly higher than that in the inactive UC and in the controls (402.16±48.0 μg/g vs 35.93±3.39 μg/g, 11.5±3.42 μg/g, P < 0.01). The fecal calprotectin concentration in the inactive UC group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < 0.05). A significant difference was also found in the patients with active UC of mild, moderate and severe degrees. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) was 0.975, 0.740, 0.692 and 0.737 for fecal calprotectin, CRP, ESR and AGP,respectively. There was a strong correlation between the fecal calprotectin concentration and the endoscopic gradings for UC (r = 0.866, P < 0.001).CONCLUSION: Calprotectin in the patient's feces can reflect the disease activity of UC and can be used as a rational fecal marker for intestinal inflammation in clinical practice. This kind of marker is relatively precise, simple and noninvasive when compared with other commonly-used markers such as CRP, ESR and AGR.

  20. The pro-apoptotic and pro-inflammatory effects of calprotectin on human periodontal ligament cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yunfei; Hou, Jianxia; Peng, Lei; Zhang, Xin; Jia, Lingfei; Wang, Xian'e; Wei, Shicheng; Meng, Huanxin

    2014-01-01

    Calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9 subunits, is associated with inflammatory disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis and cystic fibrosis. Although calprotectin levels are increased significantly in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) of periodontitis patients, its effects on periodontal ligament cells (PDLCs) remain largely unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate calprotectin levels in the GCF of generalized aggressive periodontitis (AgP) patients and to investigate the effects of recombinant human calprotectin (rhS100A8/A9) and its subunits (rhS100A8 and rhS100A9) in PDLCs. Both the concentration and amount of crevicular calprotectin were significantly higher in the AgP group compared with healthy controls. In addition, the GCF calprotectin levels were correlated positively with clinical periodontal parameters including bleeding index, probing depth, and clinical attachment loss. rhS100A8/A9 promoted cell apoptosis, whereas rhS100A8 and rhS100A9 individually exerted little effect on apoptosis in PDLCs. rhS100A9 and rhS100A8/A9 increased the activation of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) by promoting the nuclear translocation of p65 in PDLCs, subsequently inducing expression of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-8, TNFα, and COX2. Treatment with an NF-κB inhibitor partially reversed the rhS100A9- and rhS100A8/A9-induced upregulation of the pro-inflammatory cytokines. rhS100A9, and not rhS100A8, was mainly responsible for the pro-inflammatory role of calprotectin. Collectively, our results suggest that calprotectin promotes apoptosis and the inflammatory response in PDLCs via rhS100A9. These findings might help identify novel treatments for periodontitis.

  1. The pro-apoptotic and pro-inflammatory effects of calprotectin on human periodontal ligament cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunfei Zheng

    Full Text Available Calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9 subunits, is associated with inflammatory disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis and cystic fibrosis. Although calprotectin levels are increased significantly in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF of periodontitis patients, its effects on periodontal ligament cells (PDLCs remain largely unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate calprotectin levels in the GCF of generalized aggressive periodontitis (AgP patients and to investigate the effects of recombinant human calprotectin (rhS100A8/A9 and its subunits (rhS100A8 and rhS100A9 in PDLCs. Both the concentration and amount of crevicular calprotectin were significantly higher in the AgP group compared with healthy controls. In addition, the GCF calprotectin levels were correlated positively with clinical periodontal parameters including bleeding index, probing depth, and clinical attachment loss. rhS100A8/A9 promoted cell apoptosis, whereas rhS100A8 and rhS100A9 individually exerted little effect on apoptosis in PDLCs. rhS100A9 and rhS100A8/A9 increased the activation of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB by promoting the nuclear translocation of p65 in PDLCs, subsequently inducing expression of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-8, TNFα, and COX2. Treatment with an NF-κB inhibitor partially reversed the rhS100A9- and rhS100A8/A9-induced upregulation of the pro-inflammatory cytokines. rhS100A9, and not rhS100A8, was mainly responsible for the pro-inflammatory role of calprotectin. Collectively, our results suggest that calprotectin promotes apoptosis and the inflammatory response in PDLCs via rhS100A9. These findings might help identify novel treatments for periodontitis.

  2. Is nosocomial Escherichia coli bacteremia a predictive risk factor for mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe F. Tuon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine risk factors associated with mortality in patients with nosocomial Escherichia coli bacteremia from January 2009 to January 2011. In a retrospective study the medical records of 88 patients over 18 years with nosocomial bacteremia caused by E. coli were analyzed. In univariate analysis several risk factors, including chronic renal failure, altered mental status, leukocytosis, and higher Charlson index of comorbidities were associated with mortality. In multivariate analysis only altered mental status remained independently associated with mortality. Mental confusion can be a risk factor for mortality in patients with E. coli bacteremia.

  3. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p ecocardiografia com estresse físico na doença arterial coronária, mas a predição de mortalidade e de eventos cardíacos maiores, em pacientes com teste ergométrico positivo para isquemia miocárdica, é limitada. Objetivo: Avaliar a predição de mortalidade e de eventos cardíacos maiores pela

  4. Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-01-31

    WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

  5. Important factors in predicting mortality outcome from stroke: findings from the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O. Bachmann, Max; Loke, Yoon Kong; D. Musgrave, Stanley; Price, Gill M.; Hale, Rachel; Metcalf, Anthony Kneale; Turner, David A.; Day, Diana J.; A. Warburton, Elizabeth; Potter, John F.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background although variation in stroke service provision and outcomes have been previously investigated, it is less well known what service characteristics are associated with reduced short- and medium-term mortality. Methods data from a prospective multicentre study (2009–12) in eight acute regional NHS trusts with a catchment population of about 2.6 million were used to examine the prognostic value of patient-related factors and service characteristics on stroke mortality outcome at 7, 30 and 365 days post stroke, and time to death within 1 year. Results a total of 2,388 acute stroke patients (mean (standard deviation) 76.9 (12.7) years; 47.3% men, 87% ischaemic stroke) were included in the study. Among patients characteristics examined increasing age, haemorrhagic stroke, total anterior circulation stroke type, higher prestroke frailty, history of hypertension and ischaemic heart disease and admission hyperglycaemia predicted 1-year mortality. Additional inclusion of stroke service characteristics controlling for patient and service level characteristics showed varying prognostic impact of service characteristics on stroke mortality over the disease course during first year after stroke at different time points. The most consistent finding was the benefit of higher nursing levels; an increase in one trained nurses per 10 beds was associated with reductions in 30-day mortality of 11–28% (P stroke of higher numbers of trained nursing staff over and above that of other recognised mortality risk factors. PMID:28181626

  6. Role of Calprotectin as a Modulator of the IL27-Mediated Proinflammatory Effect on Endothelial Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginolhac, Aurélien; Kähne, Thilo; Sauter, Thomas; Salsmann, Alexandre; Bueb, Jean-Luc

    2015-01-01

    An underlying endothelial dysfunction plays a fundamental role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events and is the central feature of atherosclerosis. The protein-based communication between leukocytes and inflamed endothelial cells leading to diapedesis has been largely investigated and several key players such as IL6, TNFα, or the damage associated molecular pattern molecule (DAMP) calprotectin are now well identified. However, regarding cytokine IL27, the controversial current knowledge about its inflammatory role and the involved regulatory elements requires clarification. Therefore, we examined the inflammatory impact of IL27 on primary endothelial cells and the potentially modulatory effect of calprotectin on both transcriptome and proteome levels. A qPCR-based screening demonstrated high IL27-mediated gene expression of IL7, IL15, CXCL10, and CXCL11. Calprotectin time-dependent downregulatory effects were observed on IL27-induced IL15 and CXCL10 gene expression. A mass spectrometry-based approach of IL27 ± calprotectin cell stimulation enlightened a calprotectin modulatory role in the expression of 28 proteins, mostly involved in the mechanism of leukocyte transmigration. Furthermore, we showed evidence for STAT1 involvement in this process. Our findings provide new evidence about the IL27-dependent proinflammatory signaling which may be under the control of calprotectin and highlight the need for further investigations on molecules which might have antiatherosclerotic functions. PMID:26663990

  7. Role of Calprotectin as a Modulator of the IL27-Mediated Proinflammatory Effect on Endothelial Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorosz, Susann A; Ginolhac, Aurélien; Kähne, Thilo; Naumann, Michael; Sauter, Thomas; Salsmann, Alexandre; Bueb, Jean-Luc

    2015-01-01

    An underlying endothelial dysfunction plays a fundamental role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events and is the central feature of atherosclerosis. The protein-based communication between leukocytes and inflamed endothelial cells leading to diapedesis has been largely investigated and several key players such as IL6, TNFα, or the damage associated molecular pattern molecule (DAMP) calprotectin are now well identified. However, regarding cytokine IL27, the controversial current knowledge about its inflammatory role and the involved regulatory elements requires clarification. Therefore, we examined the inflammatory impact of IL27 on primary endothelial cells and the potentially modulatory effect of calprotectin on both transcriptome and proteome levels. A qPCR-based screening demonstrated high IL27-mediated gene expression of IL7, IL15, CXCL10, and CXCL11. Calprotectin time-dependent downregulatory effects were observed on IL27-induced IL15 and CXCL10 gene expression. A mass spectrometry-based approach of IL27 ± calprotectin cell stimulation enlightened a calprotectin modulatory role in the expression of 28 proteins, mostly involved in the mechanism of leukocyte transmigration. Furthermore, we showed evidence for STAT1 involvement in this process. Our findings provide new evidence about the IL27-dependent proinflammatory signaling which may be under the control of calprotectin and highlight the need for further investigations on molecules which might have antiatherosclerotic functions.

  8. Role of Calprotectin as a Modulator of the IL27-Mediated Proinflammatory Effect on Endothelial Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susann A. Dorosz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An underlying endothelial dysfunction plays a fundamental role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events and is the central feature of atherosclerosis. The protein-based communication between leukocytes and inflamed endothelial cells leading to diapedesis has been largely investigated and several key players such as IL6, TNFα, or the damage associated molecular pattern molecule (DAMP calprotectin are now well identified. However, regarding cytokine IL27, the controversial current knowledge about its inflammatory role and the involved regulatory elements requires clarification. Therefore, we examined the inflammatory impact of IL27 on primary endothelial cells and the potentially modulatory effect of calprotectin on both transcriptome and proteome levels. A qPCR-based screening demonstrated high IL27-mediated gene expression of IL7, IL15, CXCL10, and CXCL11. Calprotectin time-dependent downregulatory effects were observed on IL27-induced IL15 and CXCL10 gene expression. A mass spectrometry-based approach of IL27 ± calprotectin cell stimulation enlightened a calprotectin modulatory role in the expression of 28 proteins, mostly involved in the mechanism of leukocyte transmigration. Furthermore, we showed evidence for STAT1 involvement in this process. Our findings provide new evidence about the IL27-dependent proinflammatory signaling which may be under the control of calprotectin and highlight the need for further investigations on molecules which might have antiatherosclerotic functions.

  9. Perbedaan Kadar Calprotectin Sebelum Dan Sesudah Radioterapi Pada Pasien Karsinoma Nasofaring Akibat Infeksi Epstein-Barr Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rurie Ratna Shantiningsih

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Latar belakang: Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV adalah anggota herpes virus berkaitan dengan etiologi karsinoma nasofaring (KNF. Pada pasien KNF jumlah monosit dalam sel darah tepi mengalami penurunan dan kebanyakan masih dalam bentuk immature sehingga menurunkan respon imun pasien serta meningkatkan kemungkinan terjadinya penyakit periodontal. Radioterapi merupakan salah satu metode terapi yang banyak digunakan untuk kasus KNF. Calprotectin diproduksi dalam sitoplasma sel monosit dan levelnya meningkat pada beberapa penyakit inflamasi, termasuk inflamasi jaringan periodontal, ditandai dengan peningkatan kadar calprotectin pada cairan sulkus gingiva (CSG. Tujuan: mengkaji perbedaan kadar calprotectin pada pasien KNF sebelum dan setelah dilakukan radioterapi, pada sel monosit, serum dan CSG. Metode Penelitian: sepuluh pasien KNF akibat infeksi EBV digunakan sebagai subjek dalam penelitian ini. Lima orang sebagai sampel kelompok sebelum radioterapi dan 5 orang sebagai sampel kelompok sesudah radioterapi. Dari masing-masing pasien diambil sel monosit dan serum darah tepi serta CSG. Kadar calprotectin diukur menggunakan metode ELISA. Hasil: kadar calprotectin pada kelompok sampel sebelum radioterapi lebih rendah dibandingkan kelompok sam pel sesudah radioterapi dilihat melalui sel monosit dan serum darah tepi. Sementara dari CSG, kadar calprotectin kelompok sampel sebelum radioterapi nampak lebih tinggi dibanding kelompok sesudah radioterapi. Hasil analisis statistik Anova menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan (p<0,05. Kesimpulan: terdapat perbedaan kadar calprotectin pada sel monosit, serum darah tepi dan CSG pasien KNF antara sebelum dan sesudah radioterapi. Pada sel monosit dan serum darah tepi, terjadi penurunan kadar calprotectin, sementara pada CSG terjadi peningkatan kadar calprotectin antara sebelum dan sesudah radioterapi.

  10. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruijne Marleen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for death from cardiovascular disease. We investigated the relationship between mortality and the composite markers of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta. Methods 308 postmenopausal women aged 48-76 were followed for 8.3 ± 0.3 years, with deaths related to cardiovascular disease, cancer, or other causes being recorded. From lumbar X-rays at baseline the number (NCD, size, morphology and distribution of aortic calcification lesions were scored and combined into one Morphological Atherosclerotic Calcification Distribution (MACD index. The hazard ratio for mortality was calculated for the MACD and for three other commonly used predictors: the EU SCORE card, the Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score (Framingham score, and the gold standard Aortic Calcification Severity score (AC24 developed from the Framingham Heart Study cohorts. Results All four scoring systems showed increasing age, smoking, and raised triglyceride levels were the main predictors of mortality after adjustment for all other metabolic and physical parameters. The SCORE card and the Framingham score resulted in a mortality hazard ratio increase per standard deviation (HR/SD of 1.8 (1.51-2.13 and 2.6 (1.87-3.71, respectively. Of the morphological x-ray based measures, NCD revealed a HR/SD >2 adjusted for SCORE/Framingham. The MACD index scoring the distribution, size, morphology and number of lesions revealed the best predictive power for identification of patients at risk of mortality, with a hazard ratio of 15.6 (p Conclusions This study shows that it is not just the extent of aortic calcification that predicts risk of mortality, but also the distribution, shape and size of calcified lesions. The MACD index may provide a more sensitive predictor of mortality from aortic calcification than the commonly used AC24 and SCORE/Framingham point card systems.

  11. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better

  12. Shock Index and Prediction of Traumatic Hemorrhagic Shock 28-Day Mortality: Data from the DCLHb Resuscitation Clinical Trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward P. Sloan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To assess the ability of the shock index (SI to predict 28-day mortality in traumatic hemorrhagic shock patients treated in the diaspirin cross-linked hemoglobin (DCLHb resuscitation clinical trials. Methods: We used data from two parallel DCLHb traumatic hemorrhagic shock efficacy trials, one in U.S. emergency departments, and one in the European Union prehospital setting to assess the relationship between SI values and 28-day mortality. Results: In the 219 patients, the mean age was 37 years, 64% sustained a blunt injury, 48% received DCLHb, 36% died, and 88% had an SI>1.0 at study entry. The percentage of patients with an SI>1.0 dropped by 57% (88 to 38% from the time of study entry to 120 minutes after study resuscitation (p1.0, 1.4, and 1.8 at any time point were 2.3, 2.7, and 3.1 times, respectively, more likely to die by 28 days than were patients with SI values below these cutoffs (p1.0 were 3.9x times more likely to die by 28 days (40 vs. 15%, p<0.001. Although the distribution of SI values differed based on treatment group, the receiver operator characeristics data showed no difference in SI predictive ability for 28-day mortality in patients treated with DCLHb. Conclusion: In these traumatic hemorrhagic shock patients, the shock index correlates with 28-day mortality, with higher SI values indicating greater mortality risk. Although DCLHb treatment did alter the distribution of SI values, it did not influence the ability of the SI to predict 28-day mortality. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(7:–0.

  13. Urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality in general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hillege, HL; Fidler, [No Value; Diercks, GFH; van Gilst, WH; de Zeeuw, D; van Veldhuisen, DJ; Gans, ROB; Janssen, WMT; Grobbee, DE; de Jong, PE

    2002-01-01

    Background-For the general population, the clinical relevance of an increased urinary albumin excretion rate is still debated. Therefore, we examined the relationship between urinary albumin excretion and all-cause mortality and mortality caused by cardiovascular (CV) disease and non-CV disease in t

  14. Metabolic syndrome vs.its components for prediction of cardiovascular mortality: A cohort study in Chinese elderly adults

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong-Ling Sun; Jian-Hua Wang; Bin Jiang; Liang-Shou Li; Lan-Sun Li; Lei Wu; Hai-Yun Wu; Yao He

    2012-01-01

    Objective The predictive value of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) for mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Chinese population is unclear. The aim of this present study was to compare MetS with its individual components as predictors of mortality in Chinese elderly adults. Methods A cohort of 1,535 subjects (994 men and 541 women) aged 50 years or older was selected from employees of a machinery factory in 1994 and followed until 2009. Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) predicted by MetS according to the harmonized definition and by its individual components. Results The baseline prevalence of MetS was 28.0% in men and 48.4% in women. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 414 deaths occurred, of these, 153 participants died from CVD. Adjusted for age and gender, the HRs of mortality from all-cause and CVD in participants with MetS were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): components. On evaluating the MetS components individually, we found that, independent of MetS, only hypertension and impaired glucose predicted higher mortality. Conclusions The number of positive MetS components seems no more informative than classifying (dichotomous) MetS for CVD risks assessment in this Chinese cohort.

  15. Fecal Calprotectin in Healthy Children Aged 1-4 Years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingling Zhu

    Full Text Available Calprotectin has been well emulated recently in adults as well as in children. The aim of this study was to assess fecal calprotectin concentrations in healthy children aged from 1 to 4 years.Volunteers were enlisted from 3 nurseries. A brief questionnaire was used to ensure these children meet the inclusion criteria, and some clinical and sociodemographic factors were collected. Anthro software (version 3.1 was used to calculated Length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ, weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZ, and weight-for-length Z-scores (WLZ respectively. Fecal calprotectin was detected by a commercially available ELISA.In total 274 children were recruited, with age ranging from 1 to 4 years old. The median FC concentration was 83.19 μg/g [range 4.58 to 702.50 μg/g, interquartile range (IQR 14.69-419.45 μg/g] or 1.92 log10 μg/g (range 0.66 log10 to 2.85 log10 μg/g, IQR 1.17 log10-2.62 log10 μg/g. All of the children were divided into three groups, 1-2 years (12-24 months, 2-3 years (24-36 months, 3-4 years (36-48 months, with median FC concentrations 96.14 μg/g (1.98 log10 μg/g, 81.48 μg/g (1.91 log10 μg/g, 65.36 μg/g (1.82 log10 μg/g, respectively. There was similar FC level between boys and girls. FC concentrations showed a downward trend by the growing age groups. A statistic difference was found in FC concentrations among groups 1-2 years, 2-3 years and 3-4 years (P = 0.016. In inter-groups comparison, a significant difference was found between children aged 1-2 years and children aged 3-4 years (P = 0.007. A negative correlation trend was found between age and FC concentration (Spearman's rho = -0.167, P = 0.005 in all the participants. A simple correlation was performed among WLZ, WAZ, birth weight, or birth length with FC, and there was no correlation being observed.Children aged from 1 to 4 years old have lower FC concentrations compared with healthy infants (<1years, and higher FC concentrations when comparing with children older than 4

  16. Comprehensive geriatric assessment can predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwang-Il; Park, Kay-Hyun; Koo, Kyung-Hoi; Han, Ho-Seong; Kim, Cheol-Ho

    2013-01-01

    The proportion of elderly patients who undergo surgery has rapidly increased; however, clinical indicators predicting outcomes are limited. Our aim was to evaluate the significance of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. We studied 141 consecutive elderly patients (age: 78.0±6.5 years old, male: 41.1%) who were referred to our geriatric department for surgical risk evaluation. CGA was performed to evaluate physical health, functional status, psychological health, and social support. The primary composite outcome of this study was in-hospital death or post-discharge institutionalization. In-hospital adverse events, such as delirium, pressure ulcers, pneumonia, and urinary tract infections, were also evaluated. The associations between CGA and in-hospital adverse events, in-hospital death, and post-discharge institutionalization were investigated. There were 32 adverse outcomes (6 in-hospital deaths and 26 post-discharge institutionalizations). Compared with the patients who were discharged to their homes, patients with adverse outcomes were characterized by poor nutritional status and prior strokes. However, there was no significant difference in surgical risk or anesthesia type. The CGA results showed that patients with adverse outcomes were associated with functional dependency and poor nutrition. The cumulative number of impairments in the CGA domain was significantly associated with adverse outcomes, in-hospital events, and prolonged hospital stays. In multiple logistic regression analysis, cumulative impairment in CGA was independently associated with surgical outcomes in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. Preoperative CGA can identify elderly patients at greater risk for mortality, post-discharge institutionalization, adverse in-hospital events, and prolonged length of hospital stay.

  17. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koethe, John R; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K; Kabagambe, Edmond K; Chiasera, Janelle M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C

    2013-01-01

    Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed.

  18. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koethe, John R.; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Chiasera, Janelle M.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed. PMID:23691292

  19. Prediction Models and Their External Validation Studies for Mortality of Patients with Acute Kidney Injury: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohnuma, Tetsu; Uchino, Shigehiko

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To systematically review AKI outcome prediction models and their external validation studies, to describe the discrepancy of reported accuracy between the results of internal and external validations, and to identify variables frequently included in the prediction models. Methods We searched the MEDLINE and Web of Science electronic databases (until January 2016). Studies were eligible if they derived a model to predict mortality of AKI patients or externally validated at least one of the prediction models, and presented area under the receiver-operator characteristic curves (AUROC) to assess model discrimination. Studies were excluded if they described only results of logistic regression without reporting a scoring system, or if a prediction model was generated from a specific cohort. Results A total of 2204 potentially relevant articles were found and screened, of which 12 articles reporting original prediction models for hospital mortality in AKI patients and nine articles assessing external validation were selected. Among the 21 studies for AKI prediction models and their external validation, 12 were single-center (57%), and only three included more than 1,000 patients (14%). The definition of AKI was not uniform and none used recently published consensus criteria for AKI. Although good performance was reported in their internal validation, most of the prediction models had poor discrimination with an AUROC below 0.7 in the external validation studies. There were 10 common non-renal variables that were reported in more than three prediction models: mechanical ventilation, age, gender, hypotension, liver failure, oliguria, sepsis/septic shock, low albumin, consciousness and low platelet count. Conclusions Information in this systematic review should be useful for future prediction model derivation by providing potential candidate predictors, and for future external validation by listing up the published prediction models. PMID:28056039

  20. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  1. Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Koethe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Low body mass index (BMI at antiretroviral therapy (ART initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L. Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, 28 (19% died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P=0.01 after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4+ lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P=0.74. Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed.

  2. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...... of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.MethodA search for significant prognostic factors (p...

  3. Usefulness of a single-item measure of depression to predict mortality: the GAZEL prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Stringhini, Silvia; Dugravot, Aline; Lemogne, Cédric; Consoli, Silla M.; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie

    2012-01-01

    Background: It remains unknown whether short measures of depression perform as well as long measures in predicting adverse outcomes such as mortality. The present study aims to examine the predictive value of a single-item measure of depression for mortality. Methods: A total of 14 185 participants of the GAZEL cohort completed the 20-item Center-for-Epidemiologic-Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale in 1996. One of these items (I felt depressed) was used as a single-item measure of depression. All-cause mortality data were available until 30 September 2009, a mean follow-up period of 12.7 years with a total of 650 deaths. Results: In Cox regression model adjusted for baseline socio-demographic characteristics, a one-unit increase in the single-item score (range 0–3) was associated with a 25% higher risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI: 13–37%, P < 0.001). Further adjustment for health-related behaviours and physical chronic diseases reduced this risk by 36% and 8%, respectively. After adjustment for all these variables, every one-unit increase in the single-item score predicted a 15% increased risk of death (95% CI: 5–27%, P < 0.01). There is also an evidence of a dose–reponse relationship between reponse scores on the single-item measure of depression and mortality. Conclusion: This study shows that a single-item measure of depression is associated with an increased risk of death. Given its simplicity and ease of administration, a very simple single-item measure of depression might be useful for identifying middle-aged adults at risk for elevated depressive symptoms in large epidemiological studies and clinical settings. PMID:21840893

  4. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Intervention, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); De Amorim Bernstein, Karen [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiation Oncology, Francis H Burr Proton Therapy Center, Boston, MA (United States); Halpern, Elkan F. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Institute of Technology Assessment, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-12-15

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  5. Fecal Calprotectin Level as Diagnostic Marker for Intestinal Inflammation in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darmadi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Inflammatory bowel disease diagnosis was still based on invasive examination, such as endoscopy and histopathology. Fecal calprotectin was a non-invasive intestinal inflammation marker, but several study give a different result in its diagnostic value and correlation to inflammatory bowel disease. This research was aimed to prove that fecal calprotectin examination has a high diagnostic value in diagnosing inflammatory bowel disease, and also correlate to its clinical stages. Method: This is a cross sectional study to do a diagnostic test in several hospital in Jakarta, from September 2014 to February 2015. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was made to get fecal calprotectin diagnostic level and Krusskal Wallis test was performed to identify fecal calprotectin difference among each inflammatory bowel disease clinical stages. Results: A total of 71 patients with inflammatory bowel disease was invoved in this research, based on colonoscopic examination result. Among them, 57 patients was confirmed to have intestinal inflammation based on histopathology result. Fecal calprotectin level was found to be higher in patients with inflammatory bowel disease than patients without intestinal inflammation (553,8 µg/g vs. 76,95 µg/g, p < 0,001. A cut off point of 179,3 µg/g was gathered, with 96% sensitivity (95% CI: 0,88-0,99, 93% specificity (95% CI: 0,69-0,99, and 99,5% area under curve (AUC 99,5% (95% CI: 0,98-1,00. A significant difference was found between fecal calprotectin in each inflammatory bowel disease clinical stages (p < 0,001. Conclusion: Fecal calprotectin has a high diagnostic value for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD and strongly correlate to its disease clinical stages.

  6. Music therapy-induced changes in salivary cortisol level are predictive of cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance hemodialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yi-Chou; Lin, Yen-Ju; Lu, Kuo-Cheng; Chiang, Han-Sun; Chang, Chia-Chi; Yang, Li-King

    2017-01-01

    Background Music therapy has been applied in hemodialysis (HD) patients for relieving mental stress. Whether the stress-relieving effect by music therapy is predictive of clinical outcome in HD patients is still unclear. Methods We recruited a convenience sample of 99 patients on maintenance HD and randomly assigned them to the experimental (n=49) or control (n=50) group. The experimental group received relaxing music therapy for 1 week, whereas the control group received no music therapy. In the experimental group, we compared cardiovascular mortality in the patients with and without cortisol changes. Results The salivary cortisol level was lowered after 1 week of music therapy in the experimental group (−2.41±3.08 vs 1.66±2.11 pg/mL, P0.6 pg/mL (83.8% vs 63.6%, Pmusic therapy may predict cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance HD. PMID:28260913

  7. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J.; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M.; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C.; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C.; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K.; Katzke, Verena A.; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J.; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Boer, Jolanda M. A.; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G. M.; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72–0.79) to 0.88 (0.84–0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69–0.83) to 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73–0.83) to 0.91 (0.85–0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors. PMID:27409582

  8. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Beulens, Joline W J; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Katzke, Verena A; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Boer, Jolanda M A; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G M; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  9. Usefulness of Regional Distribution of Coronary Artery Calcium to Improve the Prediction of All-Cause Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Tota-Maharaj, R; Joshi, PH; Budoff, MJ.; Whelton, SP; Zeb, I.; Rumberger, JA; Al-Mallah, MH; Blumenthal, RS; Nasir, K; Blaha, MJ

    2014-01-01

    © 2015 Elsevier Inc. Although the traditional Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a powerful predictor of mortality, it is unknown if the regional distribution of CAC further improves cardiovascular risk prediction. We retrospectively studied 23,058 patients referred for Agatston CAC scoring, of whom 61% had CAC (n= 14,084). CAC distribution was defined as the number of vessels with CAC (0 to 4, including left main). For multivessel CAC, "diffuse" CAC was defined by decreasing per...

  10. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  11. High Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Cardiovascular Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Ruifang

    2017-01-01

    The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a novel simple biomarker of inflammation. It has emerged as a predictor of poor prognosis in cancer and cardiovascular disease in general population. But little was known of its prognostic value in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Here we investigated the association between NLR and cardiovascular risk markers, including increased pulse pressure (PP), left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and intima-media thickness (IMT), and mortality in HD patients. Two hundred and sixty-eight HD patients were enrolled in this study and were followed for 36 months. The primary end point was all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios for NLR on all-cause and cardiovascular survival. We pinpointed that higher NLR in HD patients was a predictor of increased PP, LVMI, and IMT; HD patients with higher NLR had a lower survival at the end of the study; furthermore, high NLR was an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when adjusted for other risk factors. In conclusion, higher NLR in HD patients was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and mortality.

  12. Low preoperative platelet counts predict a high mortality after partial hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kazuhiro Kaneko; Yoshio Shirai; Toshifumi Wakai; Naoyuki Yokoyama; Kohei Akazawa; Katsuyoshi Hatakeyama

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To assess the validity of our selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures based on indocyanine green disappearance rate (KICG), and to unveil the factors affecting posthepatectomy mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 198 consecutive patients with HCC who underwent partial hepatectomies in the past 14 years was conducted. The selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures during the study period were KICG≥0.12 for hemihepatectomy, KICG≥0.10 for bisegmentectomy, KICG≥0.08 for monosegmentectomy, and KICG ≥0.06 for nonanatomic hepatectomy. The hepatectomies were categorized into three types: major hepatectomy (hemihepatectomy or a more extensive procedure),bisegmentectomy, and limited hepatectomy. Univariate (Fishers exact test) and multivariate (the logistic regression model) analyses were used.RESULTS: Postoperative mortality was 5% after major hepatectomy, 3% after bisegmentectomy, and 3% after limited hepatectomy. The three percentages were comparable (P = 0.876). The platelet count of ≤ 10x 104/μL was the strongest independent factor for postoperative mortality on univariate (P = 0.001) and multivariate (risk ratio,12.5; P= 0.029) analyses. No patient with a platelet count of >7.3x 104/μL died of postoperative morbidity, whereas 25% (6/24 patients) of patients with a platelet count of ≤7.3x 104/μL died (P<0.001).CONCLUSION: The selection criteria for hepatectomy procedures based on KICG are generally considered valid,because of the acceptable morbidity and mortality with these criteria. The preoperative platelet count independently affects morbidity and mortality after hepatectomy, suggesting that a combination of KICG and platelet count would further reduce postoperative mortality.

  13. Elevated soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predicts mortality in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mölkänen, T; Ruotsalainen, E; Thorball, C W;

    2011-01-01

    are scarce. To elucidate the role of suPAR in a common bacteremic infection, the serum suPAR levels in 59 patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) were measured using the suPARnostic ELISA assay and associations to 1-month mortality and with deep infection focus were analyzed. On day three, after......PAR levels as compared to patients with no deep infection focus. suPAR was found to be prognostic for mortality in receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, which was not observed for serum C-reactive protein (CRP); the area under the curve (AUC) for suPAR was 0.754 (95% confidence interval [CI...

  14. Calprotectin and platelet aggregation in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne Bøjet Larsen

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that the inflammation-associated protein calprotectin may be implicated in the pathogenesis of coronary artery disease (CAD. However, the impact of calprotectin levels on platelet aggregation in CAD patients has never been investigated.We investigated the association between calprotectin levels and platelet aggregation in stable, high-risk CAD patients receiving aspirin as mono antiplatelet therapy. Furthermore, we aimed to investigate independent clinical and laboratory determinants of calprotectin levels.We performed a cross-sectional study including 581 stable, high-risk CAD patients. All patients received 75 mg aspirin daily as mono antiplatelet therapy. Platelet aggregation was assessed by 1 impedance aggregometry (Multiplate Analyzer using arachidonic acid (AA and collagen as agonists and by 2 the VerifyNow Aspirin Assay. Low-grade inflammation was evaluated by calprotectin, high-sensitive C-reactive-protein (hs-CRP and interleukin-6. Platelet activation was assessed by soluble P-selectin, and cyclooxygenase-1 inhibition was evaluated by serum thromboxane B2, both measured by ELISA.Calprotectin levels correlated positively with platelet aggregation according to Multiplate Analyzer (r=0.12, p=0.01. Additionally, calprotectin was positively associated with leukocytes (r=0.33, p<0.0001, hs-CRP (r=0.31, p<0.0001, interleukin-6 (r=0.28, p<0.0001, soluble P-selectin (r=0.10, p=0.02 and serum thromboxane B2 (r=0.10, p=0.02. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was an independent predictor of increased calprotectin levels (p=0.004, and trends were seen for body mass index (p=0.06 and smoking (p=0.07. Compliance with aspirin was confirmed by low serum thromboxane B2 levels in all patients (median [25%;75%]: 1.07 [0.52;1.87] ng/mL.Calprotectin levels correlated positively, though weakly, with platelet aggregation and activation as well as serum thromboxane B2 in high-risk, stable CAD patients treated with aspirin.

  15. External validation of nomograms for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients treated with definitive surgery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Zhu; Wei-Jie Gu; Ding-Wei Ye; Xu-Dong Yao; Shi-Lin Zhang; Bo Dai; Hai-Liang Zhang; Yi-Jun Shen

    2014-01-01

    Using a population-based cancer registry, Thuret et al. developed 3 nomograms for estimating cancer-specific mortality in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma. In the initial cohort, only 23.0% of the patients were treated with inguinal lymphadenectomy and had pN stage. To generalize the prediction models in clinical practice, we evaluated the performance of the 3 nomograms in a series of penile cancer patients who were treated with definitive surgery. Clinicopathologic information was obtained from 160 M0 penile cancer patients who underwent primary tumor excision and regional lymphadenectomy between 1990 and 2008. The predicted probabilities of cancer-specific mortality were calculated from 3 nomograms that were based on different disease stage definitions and tumor grade. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness were assessed to compare model performance. The discrimination ability was similar in nomograms using the TNM classification or American Joint Committee on Cancer staging (Harrell’s concordance index = 0.817 and 0.832, respectively), whereas it was inferior for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results staging (Harrel ’s concordance index = 0.728). Better agreement with the observed cancer-specific mortality was shown for the model consisting of TNM classification and tumor grade, which also achieved favorable clinical net benefit, with a threshold probability in the range of 0 to 42%. The nomogram consisting of TNM classification and tumor grading was shown to have better performance for predicting cancer-specific mortality in penile cancer patients who underwent definitive surgery. Our data support the integration of this model in decision-making and trial design.

  16. Predictive Value of Brain Arrest Neurological Outcome Scale (BrANOS) on Mortality and Morbidity After Cardiac Arrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şahutoğlu, Cengiz; Uyar, Mehmet; Demirağ, Kubilay; İsayev, Hasan; Moral, Ali Reşat

    2016-01-01

    Objective There are several prediction scales and parameters for prognosis after a cardiac arrest. One of these scales is the brain arrest neurological outcome scale (BrANOS), which consists of duration of cardiac arrest, Glasgow Coma Scale score and Hounsfield unit measured on cranial computed tomography (CT) scan. The objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of BrANOS on predicting the mortality and disability after a cardiac arrest. Methods We retrospectively investigated cardiac arrest patients who were hospitalized in our intensive care unit (ICU) within a 3-year period. Inclusion criteria were age over 18 years old, survival of more than 24 hours after cardiac arrest and availability of cranial CT. We recorded the age, sex, diagnosis, duration of cardiac arrest and hospital stay, mortality, Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) and BrANOS score. The primary endpoint of the study was to establish the relationship between mortality and BrANOS score in patients who survived for more than 24 hours after a cardiac arrest. The secondary endpoint of the study was to determine the 2-year life expectancy and GOS after cardiac arrest. Results The mean age of the patients was 57±17 years (33 females, 67 males). ICU mortality rate was 57%. The BrANOS mean score was 10.3±3.2. There was a significant difference between survivors and non-survivors in terms of the BrANOS score (8.8±3.2 vs. 11.6±2.7; p14 predicted death with 100% accuracy. All the patients without disability had a BrANOS score of <10. The BrANOS score also correlated well with GOS (p<0.001). The 2-year life expectancy rate was 31% in patients who survived more than 24 hours after a cardiac arrest. Conclusion In this study, we demonstrated that BrANOS provided reliable data for prognostic evaluation after a cardiac arrest. PMID:28058140

  17. Association of calprotectin with leukocyte chemotactic and inflammatory mediators following acute aerobic exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maharaj, Arun; Slusher, Aaron L; Zourdos, Michael C; Whitehurst, Michael; Fico, Brandon G; Huang, Chun-Jung

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine whether acute aerobic exercise-mediated calprotectin in plasma would be associated with monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), myeloperoxidase (MPO), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in healthy individuals. Eleven healthy participants, aged 18 to 30 years, were recruited to perform a 30-min bout of aerobic exercise at 75% maximal oxygen uptake. Acute aerobic exercise elicited a significant elevation across time in plasma calprotectin, MCP-1, MPO, and IL-6. Body mass index (BMI) was positively correlated with calprotectin area-under-the-curve with "respect to increase" (AUCi) and IL-6 AUCi. Furthermore, calprotectin AUCi was positively correlated with IL-6 AUCi and MPO AUCi, even after controlling for BMI. Although MPO AUCi was positively correlated with IL-6 AUCi, this relationship no longer existed after controlling for BMI. These results suggest that acute aerobic exercise could mediate innate immune response associated with calprotectin and its related leukocyte chemotactic and inflammatory mediators, especially in individuals with elevated BMI.

  18. Comparison of Charlson's weighted index of comorbidities with the chronic health score for the prediction of mortality in septic patients

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cui Yunliang; Wang Tao; Bao Jun; Tian Zhaotao; Lin Zhaofen; Chen Dechang

    2014-01-01

    Background Comorbidity is one of the most important determinants of short-term and long-term outcomes in septic patients.Charlson's weighted index of comorbidities (WIC) and the chronic health score (CHS),which is a component of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ,are two frequently-used measures of comorbidity.In this study,we assess the performance of WIC and CHS in predicting the hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis.Methods A total of 338 adult patients with sepsis were admitted to a multisystem ICU between October 2010 and August 2012.Clinical data were collected,including age,gender,underlying diseases,key predisposing causes,severity-of-sepsis,and hospital mortality.The APACHE Ⅱ,CHS,acute physiology score (APS),sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and WIC scores were assessed within the first 24 hours of admission.Univariate and multiple Logistic regression analyses were used to compare the performance of WIC and CHS.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to predict hospital mortality over classes of risk.Results Of all the enrolled patients,224 patients survived and 114 patients died.The surviving patients had significantly lower WIC,CHS,APACHE Ⅱ,and SOFA scores than the non-surviving patients (P <0.05).Combining WIC or CHS with other administrative data showed that the hospital mortality was significantly associated with age,severe sepsis,key predisposing causes such as pneumonia,a history of underlying diseases such as hypertension and congestive cardiac failure,and WIC,CHS and APS scores (P <0.05).The AUC for the hospital mortality were 0.564 (95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.496-0.631) of CHS,0.663 (95% Cl 0.599-0.727) of WIC,0.770 (95% Cl 0.718-0.822) of APACHE Ⅱ,0.856 (95% Cl 0.815-0.897) of the CHS combined with other administrative data,and 0.857 (95% Cl 0.817-0.897) of the WIC combined with other administrative data.The diagnostic

  19. Admission cell free DNA levels predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis in intensive care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avital Avriel

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD level at admission measured by a new simplified method.CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome.Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone.CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT, suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making.

  20. General psychiatric or depressive symptoms were not predictive for mortality in a healthy elderly cohort in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Otilia Cerveira

    Full Text Available Abstract General psychiatric symptoms may interfere with the ability of individuals to take care of their health, to get involved with activities and develop social abilities, thereby increasing risk of death. Objective: To evaluate general psychiatric symptoms as predictive factors for mortality in a community elderly cohort in Southern Brazil. Methods: 345 healthy elderly, aged ³60 years, from the catchment area of Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre were followed from 1996. Data for the present study were drawn from the period 1996-2004. General psychiatric symptoms (Self-Reporting Questionnaire - SRQ, depressive symptoms (Montgomery-Asberg depressive rating scale, and Mini Mental State Examination scores at baseline were included in the study. Socio-demographic, medical conditions, and functional capacity were also analyzed. The outcome was vital status at follow-up obtained from family members, hospital records and checked against official death registers. Results: Of the 345 baseline individuals, 246 were followed-up. The global mortality rate over the study period was 36.9% (N=90. Those who deceased during the period were older (73.5±7.5, more dependent overall, and more cognitively impaired than the living elderly (univariate analyses. In the logistic regression, only age (OR=0.93; p=0.003 and functional capacity (OR=0.22; p=0.007 remained significant in the final equation. Conclusion: Psychiatric symptoms presented no association with mortality in the present sample. Older age and functional incapacity were risk factors for mortality.

  1. Prediction of mortality in type 2 diabetes from health-related quality of life (ZODIAC-4)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleefstra, N.; Houweling, S.T.; Ubink-Veltmaat, L.J.; Logtenberg, S.J.J.; Meyboom-de Jong, B.; Coyne, J.C.; Groenier, K.H.; Bilo, H.J.G.; Landman, G.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE - To investigate the relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and mortality in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - In 1998,1,143 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes participated in the Zwolle Outpatient Diabetes project Integrating Available Care (ZODIA

  2. Asthma attacks with eosinophilia predict mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a general population sample

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hospers, JJ; Schouten, JP; Weiss, ST; Rijcken, B; Postma, DS

    1999-01-01

    We studied the association between allergy defined as eosinophilia (greater than or equal to 275 cells/mm(3)) and/or positive skin tests (sum score greater than or equal to 3) and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) after adjustment for major risk factors. In addition, we inv

  3. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne;

    2016-01-01

    Background: CD163, a monocyte- and macrophage-specific scavenger receptor, is shed as soluble CD163 (sCD163) during the proinflammatory response. Here, we assessed the association between plasma sCD163 levels and progression to AIDS and all-cause mortality among individuals infected with human im.......35 [95% CI, 1.13–1.63], respectively). Conclusions: Plasma sCD163 was an independent marker of all-cause mortality in a cohort of HIV–infected individuals, suggesting that monocyte/macrophage activation may play a role in HIV pathogenesis and be a target of intervention.......Background: CD163, a monocyte- and macrophage-specific scavenger receptor, is shed as soluble CD163 (sCD163) during the proinflammatory response. Here, we assessed the association between plasma sCD163 levels and progression to AIDS and all-cause mortality among individuals infected with human...... immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). Methods: Plasma sCD163 levels were measured in 933 HIV–infected individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with mortality were computed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: At baseline, 86% were receiving antiretroviral treatment...

  4. Mortality theory used to predict the life-span shortening caused by chronic internal irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panteleev, L.I.; Shvedov, V.L. (Institut Biofiziki, Moscow (USSR))

    In experiments on albino rats received strontium 90 in daily doses of 1.85 to 185 kBq/day the regularities of death were studied. It was shown that death of animals exposed to chronic internal radiation followed the Gomperz B. mortality law.

  5. Predictive factors of neurological complications and one-month mortality after liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eFu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurological complications are common after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT. We aimed to characterize the risk factors associated with neurological complications and mortality among patients who underwent OLT in the post-model for end-stage liver disease (MELD era.Methods: In a retrospective review, we evaluated 227 consecutive patients at the Keck Hospital of the University of Southern California before and after OLT to define the type and frequency of and risk factors for neurological complications and mortality.Results: Neurological complications were common (n=98, with encephalopathy being most frequent (56.8%, followed by tremor (26.5%, hallucinations (11.2%, and seizure (8.2%. Factors associated with neurological complications after OLT included preoperative dialysis, hepatorenal syndrome, renal insufficiency, intra-operative dialysis, preoperative encephalopathy, preoperative mechanical ventilation, and infection. Preoperative infection was an independent predictor of neurological complications (OR 2.83, 1.47 – 5.44. One-month mortality was 8.8% and was independently associated with urgent re-transplant, preoperative intubation, intraoperative arrhythmia, and intraoperative use of multiple pressors.Conclusion: Neurological complications are common in patients undergoing OLT in the post-MELD era, with encephalopathy being most frequent. An improved understanding of the risk factors related to both neurological complications and one-month mortality post-transplantation can better guide perioperative care and help improve outcomes among OLT patients.

  6. Telomere length predicts all-cause mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, A S; Tarnow, L; Jorsal, Anders;

    2010-01-01

    Type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy have increased mortality and morbidity compared with normoalbuminuric patients. Telomere length in proliferative cells is inversely related to the total number of cell divisions, and therefore to biological age. We aimed to evaluate differences...... in telomere length in patients with type 1 diabetes with or without diabetic nephropathy; we also evaluated the prognostic value of telomere length....

  7. External Validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for Early Prediction of Mortality in Trauma Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel; Reitsma, J.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base exc

  8. Oxidative Stress Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Masiá

    Full Text Available We aimed to assess whether oxidative stress is a predictor of mortality in HIV-infected patients.We conducted a nested case-control study in CoRIS, a contemporary, multicentre cohort of HIV-infected patients, antiretroviral-naïve at entry, launched in 2004. Cases were patients who died with available stored plasma samples collected. Two age and sex-matched controls for each case were selected. We measured F2-isoprostanes (F2-IsoPs and malondialdehyde (MDA plasma levels in the first blood sample obtained after cohort engagement.54 cases and 93 controls were included. Median F2-IsoPs and MDA levels were significantly higher in cases than in controls. When adjustment was performed for age, HIV-transmission category, CD4 cell count and HIV viral load at cohort entry, and subclinical inflammation measured with highly-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, the association of F2-IsoPs with mortality remained significant (adjusted OR per 1 log10 increase, 2.34 [1.23-4.47], P = 0.009. The association of MDA with mortality was attenuated after adjustment: adjusted OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 2.05 [0.91-4.59], P = 0.080. Median hsCRP was also higher in cases, and it also proved to be an independent predictor of mortality in the adjusted analysis: OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.39 (1.01-1.91, P = 0.043; and OR (95% CI per 1 log10 increase, 1.46 (1.07-1.99, P = 0.014, respectively, when adjustment included F2-IsoPs and MDA.Oxidative stress is a predictor of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected patients. For plasma F2-IsoPs, this association is independent of HIV-related factors and subclinical inflammation.

  9. Does C-reactive protein independently predict mortality in adult community-acquired bacteremia patients with known sepsis severity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim O; Jensen, Thøger G; Kolmos, Hans J;

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated whether sepsis severity and C-reactive protein (CRP) level on admission prognostically corroborated or annulled each other in adult patients with incident community-acquired bacteremia (Funen, Denmark, 2000-2008). We used logistic regression and area under the receiver operating...... characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate 30-day mortality in four models: (i) age, gender, comorbidity, bacteria, and ward. (ii) Model 1 and sepsis severity. (iii) Model 1 and CRP. (iv) Model 1, sepsis severity, and CRP. Altogether, 416 of 1999 patients died within 30 days. CRP independently predicted 30-day...... mortality [Model 4, odds ratio (95% CIs) for 100 mg/L: 1.16 (1.06-1.27)], but it did not contribute to the AUC (Model 2 vs Model 4: p = 0.31). In the 963 non-severe sepsis patients, CRP independently predicted 30-day mortality [Model 4: 1.42 (1.20-1.69)] and it increased the AUC (Model 2 vs Model 4: p = 0...

  10. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  11. Comparison of artificial neural network and logistic regression models for predicting in-hospital mortality after primary liver cancer surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Since most published articles comparing the performance of artificial neural network (ANN models and logistic regression (LR models for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC outcomes used only a single dataset, the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility of the models has not been addressed. The study purposes to validate the use of ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality in HCC surgery patients in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of LR model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients who underwent a HCC surgery during the period from 1998 to 2009 were included in the study. This study retrospectively compared 1,000 pairs of LR and ANN models based on initial clinical data for 22,926 HCC surgery patients. For each pair of ANN and LR models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L statistics and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired T-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables. Compared to the LR models, the ANN models had a better accuracy rate in 97.28% of cases, a better H-L statistic in 41.18% of cases, and a better AUROC curve in 84.67% of cases. Surgeon volume was the most influential (sensitive parameter affecting in-hospital mortality followed by age and lengths of stay. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In comparison with the conventional LR model, the ANN model in the study was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  12. Basic geriatric assessment does not predict in-hospital mortality after PEG placement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smoliner Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG is an established procedure for long-term nutrition. However, studies have underlined the importance of proper patient selection as mortality has been shown to be relatively high in acute illness and certain patient groups, amongst others geriatric patients. Objective of the study was to gather information about geriatric patients receiving PEG and to identify risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality after PEG placement. Methods All patients from the GEMIDAS database undergoing percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in acute geriatric wards from 2006 to 2010 were included in a retrospective database analysis. Data on age, gender, main diagnosis leading to hospital admission, death in hospital, care level, and legal incapacitation were extracted from the main database of the Geriatric Minimum Data Set. Self-care capacity was assessed by the Barthel index, and cognitive status was rated with the Mini Mental State Examination or subjectively judged by the clinician. Descriptive statistics and group comparisons were chosen according to data distribution and scale of measurement, logistic regression analysis was performed to examine influence of various factors on hospital mortality. Results A total of 1232 patients (60.4% women with a median age of 82 years (range 60 to 99 years were included. The mean Barthel index at admission was 9.5 ± 14.0 points. Assessment of cognitive status was available in about half of the patients (n = 664, with 20% being mildly impaired and almost 70% being moderately to severely impaired. Stroke was the most common main diagnosis (55.2%. In-hospital mortality was 12.8%. In a logistic regression analysis, old age (odds ratio (OR 1.030, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.003-1.056, male sex (OR 1.741, 95% CI 1.216-2.493, and pneumonia (OR 2.641, 95% CI 1.457-4.792 or the diagnosis group ‘miscellaneous disease’ (OR 1.864, 95% CI 1

  13. The plasma level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteraemia and predicts mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittenhagen, P; Kronborg, G; Weis, N;

    2004-01-01

    This multicentre prospective study was conducted to investigate whether the level of the soluble form of urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is elevated during pneumococcal bacteraemia and is of predictive value in the early stage of the disease. Plasma levels of suPAR were...... (n = 117; p cerebral symptoms and high serum concentrations of protein YKL-40 and suPAR were associated significantly with mortality (p ....05). In multivariate analysis, only suPAR remained a significant predictor of death (mortality rate of 13 for suPAR levels of > 10 ng/mL; 95% CI: 1.1-158). The increase in suPAR levels may reflect increased expression by vascular or inflammatory cells in the setting of pneumococcal sepsis. This plasma protein may...

  14. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....... with a length of stay longer than 24 hours. Short form 36 (SF-36) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were used. Mortality was assessed during ICU admission, 30, and 90 days hereafter. RESULTS: We included 318 patients. No patients were lost to follow-up. Using the physical...

  15. Comparison of three commercial fecal calprotectin ELISA test kits used in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirsepasi-Lauridsen, Hengameh Chloé; Bachmann Holmetoft, Ulla; Halkjær, Sofie Ingdam

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fecal calprotectin is a noninvasive marker of intestinal inflammation used to distinguish between functional and organic bowel diseases and to evaluate disease activity among patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The goal of this study was to compare three different ELISA tests...... measuring calprotectin in their accuracy to detect IBD and to distinguish between IBD patients with active or inactive disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study includes in total 148 fecal samples, 96 from patients with a previously confirmed IBD diagnosis and 52 from healthy controls, aged from 25 to 86...... and 18 to 67 years, respectively. Disease activity in the patients was established using the following clinical activity indices: the Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index (SCCAI), the Harvey Bradshaw Index (HBI) and the Modified Pouchitis Disease Activity Index (MPDAI). Three ELISA calprotectin tests...

  16. [FECAL NONINVASIVE TESTS (CALPROTECTIN, TRANSFERRIN, HEMOGLOBIN) IN COMPLEX DIAGNOSIS OF DISEASES OF INTESTINES].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livzan, M A; Lyalukova, E A; Nechaeva, G; Osipenko, M F; Dolgih, T I

    2015-01-01

    A research objective was the assessment of informational content of fecal noninvasive tests (calprotectin, transferrin, hemoglobin) in complex diagnosis of diseases of intestines. Open kogortny research by method of a cross cut included 52 patients (middle age - 38,6 years) with IBS-like symptoms (abdominal pain or discomfort, change of frequency and/or character of a chair). Sensitivity of dough on calprotectin for diagnosis of organic pathology of intestines made (89%), for dough on calprotectin and hemoglobin - also 89%. At patients at incomplete compliance of clinical signs to diagnostic criteria of IBS and lack of endoscopic signs of damage of a large intestine research on fecal biomarkers allows to increase efficiency of diagnostics.

  17. Laboratory nutritional parameters can predict one-year mortality in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fracture

    OpenAIRE

    Jun Lu

    2014-01-01

    "Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the contributing value of nutrition related blood parameters to one-year mortality following intertrochanteric fracture surgery in a Chinese population over the age of 65. Methods: The nutritional status was evaluated by using admission serum albumin level and total lymphocyte count (TLC). One hundred and seventy-four intertrochanteric fracture patients were entered to this study for nutritional status assessment. Gender differences...

  18. Prediction of mortality rate of trauma patients in emergency room at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital by several scoring systems

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    Pande M.W. Tirtayasa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Trauma management is well recognized as one of the main challenges in modern health care. Easy-to-use trauma scoring systems inform physicians of the severity of trauma and help them to decide the course of trauma management. The aim of this study was to find the most applicable trauma scoring system which can be used by physicians by comparing prediction of the mortality rate using: 1triage-revised trauma score (T-RTS; 2 mechanism, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, age, and arterial pressure (MGAP; and GCS, age, and systolic blood pressure (GAP scoring system on trauma patients in emergency room (ER at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital.Methods: The data were collected retrospectively from medical records of trauma patients who came to the resuscitation area in ER at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital throughout 2011. As many as 185 patients were managed. The inclusion criteria were all trauma patients who came to the resuscitation area in ER. All referred patients, patients under eighteen, and uncompleted data were excluded. The data were calculated based on each scoring system. The outcome (death or alive was collected on first 24 hours following admission.Results: There were 124 cases analyzed, with mean of age of 32.4 years and total mortality rate up to 23 cases (18.5%. The mortality rate of low risk group on T-RTS, MGAP, and GAP was 5%, 1.3%, and 1.4% respectively (p = 1.000. The mortality rate of intermediate risk group on T-RTS, MGAP, and GAP was 39.4%, 32.1%, and 36.3%, respectively (p = 0.841. Mortality rate of high risk group on T-RTS, MGAP, and GAP was 100%, 72.2%, and 85.7% respectively (p = 0.782.Conclusion: There was no difference on T-RTS, MGAP, and GAP scoring system in predicting mortality rate. T-RTS is the most applicable trauma scoring system since it does not differ the age and mechanism of trauma. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:227-31. doi: 10.13181/mji.v22i4.603 Keywords: GAP, MGAP, T-RTS, Trauma scoring system

  19. Do self-reported health indicators predict mortality? Evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaque, Abdur; Mustafa, A H M G; Streatfield, Peter Kim

    2014-09-01

    In order to understand current and changing patterns of population health, there is a clear need for high-quality health indicators. The World Health Organization Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE) survey platform and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health in developing countries (INDEPTH) generated data for this study. A total of 4300 people aged 50 years or older were selected randomly from the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. The health indicators derived from these survey data are self-rated general health, overall health state, quality of life and disability levels. The outcome of the study is mortality over a 2-year follow-up since the survey. Among the four health indicators, only self-rated health was significantly associated with subsequent mortality irrespective of sex: those who reported bad health had higher mortality than those who reported good health, even after controlling for socio-demographic factors. For all other three health indicators, such associations exist but are significant only for males, while for females it is significant only for 'quality of life'.

  20. Do Stress Trajectories Predict Mortality in Older Men? Longitudinal Findings from the VA Normative Aging Study

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    Carolyn M. Aldwin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined long-term patterns of stressful life events (SLE and their impact on mortality contrasting two theoretical models: allostatic load (linear relationship and hormesis (inverted U relationship in 1443 NAS men (aged 41–87 in 1985; M = 60.30, SD = 7.3 with at least two reports of SLEs over 18 years (total observations = 7,634. Using a zero-inflated Poisson growth mixture model, we identified four patterns of SLE trajectories, three showing linear decreases over time with low, medium, and high intercepts, respectively, and one an inverted U, peaking at age 70. Repeating the analysis omitting two health-related SLEs yielded only the first three linear patterns. Compared to the low-stress group, both the moderate and the high-stress groups showed excess mortality, controlling for demographics and health behavior habits, HRs = 1.42 and 1.37, ps <.01 and <.05. The relationship between stress trajectories and mortality was complex and not easily explained by either theoretical model.

  1. Inter- Not Intraindividual Differences in sTWEAK Levels Predict Functional Deterioration and Mortality in Patients with Dilated Cardiomyopathy

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    Kai-Uwe Jarr

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK has been reported to predict mortality in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. However, whether it can be used as a biomarker for disease monitoring or rather represents a risk factor for disease progression remains unclear. Aim of the Study. To evaluate the potential of sTWEAK as a biomarker in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. Results. We conducted a serial study of sTWEAK levels in 78 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. Soluble TWEAK levels predicted not only a combined mortality/heart transplantation endpoint after 4 years (P=0.0001, but also the risk for clinical deterioration (P=0.0001. Compared to NT-proBNP, sTWEAK remained relatively stable in individual patients on follow-up indicating that inter- rather than intraindividual differences in sTWEAK levels predicted outcome. Finally, neither did the scavenger receptor sCD163 correlate with sTWEAK levels nor did its determination add additional information on outcome in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. Conclusion. Soluble TWEAK levels in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy may not be of value for disease monitoring but may represent a risk factor for disease progression and death. Further research will be necessary to elucidate the exact role of sTWEAK as a potential modulator of immune response in the setting of dilated cardiomyopathy.

  2. Identification of enhanced cytokine generation following sepsis. Dream of magic bullet for mortality prediction and therapeutic evaluation

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    H Hamishehkar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available "n  "nBackground and the purpose of the study: sepsis is one of the most widespread and lethal disease in Intensive Care Units (ICU. Based on pathophisyology of sepsis, it seems that routine laboratory tests combined with analysis of pro-inflammatory cytokines plasma levels, help clinicians to have more information about disease progress and its correct management. "nMethods:This was a prospective observational study to determine the predictive role of Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interleukin (IL-1β and IL-6 as three main pro-inflammatory cytokines and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA as two scoring systems in mortality of critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Fifty and five patients with criteria of severe sepsis were included in this study. An exclusion criterion was post Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR status. Cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 were assayed in the first, third and seventh days in blood of patients. Results and major conclusion:Among three measured cytokines, sequential levels of TNF-α and IL-6 showed significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors. IL-6 had a good correlation with outcome and scoring systems during the period of this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve indicated that APACHE II (0.858, 0.848, 0.861 and IL-6 (0.797, 0.799, 0.899 had discriminative power in prediction of mortality during sequental measured days. Multiple logestic regression analysis identified that evaluation of APACHE II and TNF-α in the first day and APACHE II and IL-6 in the third and seventh days of severe septic patients are independent outcome predictors. Results of this study suggest that IL-6 and APACHE II are useful cytokine and scoring systems respectively in prediction of mortality and clinical evaluation of severe septic patients.

  3. Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

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    Akihiro Nishi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking, symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.14-2.80] than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018. The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30] was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549. CONCLUSIONS: The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than

  4. Comparison of different comorbidity measures for use with administrative data in predicting short- and long-term mortality

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    Ng Yee-Yung

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to find a comorbidity measure with better performance for use with administrative data. The new method proposed by Elixhauser et al. has never been validated and compared to the widely used Charlson method in the Asia region. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of three comorbidity measures using information from different data periods in predicting short- and long-term mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Health Insurance claims data (2001-2002 in Taiwan. We constructed the Elixhauser, the Charlson/Deyo, and the Charlson/Romano methods based on the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes in the claims data. Two data periods, including the index hospitalization as well as the index and prior 1-year hospitalizations, were used in the analysis. The performances were compared using the c-statistics derived from multiple logistic regression models that included age, gender, race, and whether the patient received surgery or not. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Results The performance was in the same rank order among both populations regardless of the outcome and data period: Elixhauser > Charlson/Romano > Charlson/Deyo. In predicting in-hospital mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index hospitalization performed best, even better than the Charlson/Deyo or Charlson/Romano models using information from the index and prior hospitalizations. Nevertheless, in predicting 1-year mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index and 1-year prior hospitalizations performed better than using information from the index hospitalization only. Conclusions This is so far the first study to validate the Elixhauser method and compare it to other methods in

  5. Evaluation of circulating proteins and hemodynamics towards predicting mortality in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

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    Brandie D Wagner

    Full Text Available Although many predictors have been evaluated, a set of strong independent prognostic mortality indicators has not been established in children with pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH. The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and molecular predictors of survival in PAH.This single-center, retrospective cohort study was performed from children with PAH between 2001 and 2008 at Children's Hospital Colorado. Blood samples from 83 patients (median age of 8.3 years-old were obtained. We retrospectively analyzed 46 variables, which included 27 circulating proteins, 7 demographic variables and 12 hemodynamic and echocardiographic variables for establishing the best predictors of mortality. A data mining approach was utilized to evaluate predictor variables and to uncover complex data structures while performing variable selection in high dimensional problems.Thirteen children (16% died during follow-up (median; 3.1 years and survival rates from time of sample collection at 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were 95%, 85% and 79%, respectively. A subset of potentially informative predictors were identified, the top four are listed here in order of importance: Tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1, apolipoprotein-AI, RV/LV diastolic dimension ratio and age at diagnosis. In univariate analysis, TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI had significant association with survival time (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.25 [1.03, 1.51] and 0.70 [0.54-0.90], respectively. Patients grouped by TIMP-1 and apolipoprotein-AI values had significantly different survival risks (p<0.01.Important predictors of mortality were identified from a large number of circulating proteins and clinical markers in this cohort. If confirmed in other populations, measurement of a subset of these predictors could aid in management of pediatric PAH by identifying patients at risk for death. These findings also further support a role for the clinical

  6. NT-ProBNP Independently Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients Admitted for Coronary Angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Martin Huth; Goetze, Jens Peter; Bech, Jan;

    2014-01-01

    Recently, research interests are focussed on biomarkers to predict the outcome in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined whether the levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) could predict outcome in patients who underwent elective or acute coronary angiogr...

  7. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, J. Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D.; McLaughlin, Milena M.; Esterly, John S.

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  8. Calprotectin mRNA (MRP8/MRP14 expression in neutrophils of periodontitis patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

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    Ahmad Syaify

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Calprotectin, a major cytosolic protein of leukocytes, is detected in neutrophils and monocytes/machrophages. This protein is known to be a marker for several inflammatory diseases including periodontitis. In type 2 diabetes mellitus patients, the severity of periodontitis was strongly thought to be caused by decreasing of leukocytes function such as neutrophils. Previous research found that the calprotectin level in serum of periodontitis patients with type 2 DM is higher than periodontits patients non DM. Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine calprotectin mRNA (MRP8/MRP14 expression in human neutrophils of periodontitis patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: Neutrophils were isolated from the peripheral blood of periodontitis patients with uncontrolled type 2 DM, controlled type 2 DM, and non DM. The expression of calprotectin mRNA (MRP8 and MRP14 were detected by RTPCR. Result: The result showed that the value of mRNA calprotectin expression in DM patients were higher than non DM, and the highest expression was on the uncontrolled type 2 DM. Conclusion: The basal level of calprotectin mRNA MRP8/MRP14 expression increased in neutrophil of periodontitis patient with type 2 DM compared non diabetic subjects. It was suggested that high basal level of calprotectin mRNA has a role in the regulation of periodontitis severity with diabetes mellitus patients.

  9. Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckens, C.F. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Graaf, Y. van der [University Medical Center Utrecht, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verkooijen, H.M.; Mali, W.P.; Jong, P.A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Radiology Department, Utrecht (Netherlands); Isgum, I.; Mol, C.P. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands); Verhaar, H.J. [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Geriatric Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Vliegenthart, R.; Oudkerk, M. [Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Aalst, C.M. van; Koning, H.J. de [Erasmus MC Rotterdam, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2015-01-15

    Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant and acute;s semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35 % (95 % confidence interval 30-40 %) among survivors and 51 % (44-58 %) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. (orig.)

  10. Predicting growth and mortality of bivalve larvae using gene expression and supervised machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassim, Sleiman; Chapman, Robert W; Tanguy, Arnaud; Moraga, Dario; Tremblay, Rejean

    2015-12-01

    It is commonly known that the nature of the diet has diverse consequences on larval performance and longevity, however it is still unclear which genes have critical impacts on bivalve development and which pathways are of particular importance in their vulnerability or resistance. First we show that a diet deficient in essential fatty acid (EFA) produces higher larval mortality rates, a reduced shell growth, and lower postlarval performance, all of which are positively correlated with a decline in arachidonic and eicosapentaenoic acids levels, two EFAs known as eicosanoid precursors. Eicosanoids affect the cell inflammatory reactions and are synthesized from long-chain EFAs. Second, we show for the first time that a deficiency in eicosanoid precursors is associated with a network of 29 genes. Their differential regulation can lead to slower growth and higher mortality of Mytilus edulis larvae. Some of these genes are specific to bivalves and others are implicated at the same time in lipid metabolism and defense. Several genes are expressed only during pre-metamorphosis where they are essential for muscle or neurone development and biomineralization, but only in stress-induced larvae. Finally, we discuss how our networks of differentially expressed genes might dynamically alter the development of marine bivalves, especially under dietary influence.

  11. Simultaneous Prediction of New Morbidity, Mortality, and Survival without New Morbidity from Pediatric Intensive Care: A New Paradigm for Outcomes Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Berger, John T.; Clark, Amy E.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Carcillo, Joseph; Wessel, David L.; Moler, Frank; Dalton, Heidi; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Shanley, Thomas; Harrison, Rick E.; Doctor, Allan; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Dean, J. Michael

    2015-01-01

    Objective Assessments of care including quality assessments adjusted for physiological status should include the development of new morbidities as well as mortalities. We hypothesized that morbidity, like mortality, is associated with physiological dysfunction and could be predicted simultaneously with mortality. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011 to April 7, 2013. Setting and Patients General and cardiac/cardiovascular pediatric intensive care units at 7 sites. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted morbidity rates (measured with the Functional Status Scale (FSS), and defined as an increase of ≥ 3 from pre-illness to hospital discharge) were 4.6% (site range 2.6% to 7.7%) and unadjusted mortality rates were 2.7% (site range 1.3% – 5.0%). Morbidity and mortality were significantly (p0.20). Predictive ability assessed with the volume under the surface (VUS) was 0.50 ± 0.019 (derivation) and 0.50 ± 0.034 (validation) (versus chance performance = 0.17). Site-level standardized morbidity ratios were more variable than standardized mortality ratios. Conclusions New morbidities were associated with physiological status and can be modeled simultaneously with mortality. Trichotomous outcome models including both morbidity and mortality based on physiological status are suitable for research studies, and quality and other outcome assessments. This approach may be applicable to other assessments presently based only on mortality. PMID:25985385

  12. Enterococcal bloodstream infection. Design and validation of a mortality prediction rule

    OpenAIRE

    Perez-Garcia, Alejandra; Landecho, Manuel; Beunza Nuin, Juan Jose; Conde-Estévez, D; Horcajada, J.P.; Grau, S.; Gea Sánchez, Alfredo; E. Mauleón; Sorli, L.; Gómez, J.; Terradas, R.; Lucena, J.F. (Juan F.); Alegre Garrido, Félix; A. Huerta; Pozo, José Luis del

    2016-01-01

    To develop a prediction rule to describe the risk of death as a result of enterococcal bloodstream infection. A prediction rule was developed by analysing data collected from 122 patients diagnosed with enterococcal BSI admitted to the Clínica Universidad de Navarra (Pamplona, Spain); and validated by confirming its accuracy with the data of an external population (Hospital del Mar, Barcelona). According to this model, independent significant predictors for the risk of death were being diabet...

  13. The Predictive Value of Total Neutrophil Count and Neutrophil/ Lymphocyte Ratio in Predicting In-hospital Mortality and Complications after STEMI

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    Samad Ghaffari

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Leukocytosis, predominantly neutrophilia, has previously been described following ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI. The exact contribution of this phenomenon to the clinical outcome of STEMI is yet to be shown. We examined cellular inflammatory response to STEMI in the blood and its association with in-hospital mortality and/or adverse clinical events.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 404 patients who were admitted with the diagnosis of acute STEMI at Madani Heart Hospital from March 2010 to March 2012 were studied. The complete blood cell count (CBC was obtained from all patientswithin12-24 hours of the onset of symptoms. Total leukocytes were counted and differential count was obtained for neutrophils, lymphocytes and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR were evaluated. Association of cellular response with the incidence of post-MI mortality/complications was assessed by multiple logistic regression analyses.Results: In-hospital mortality and post-STEMI complication rate were 3.7% and 43.6%, respectively. Higher age (P=0.04, female gender (0.002, lower ejection fraction (P<0.001 and absolute neutrophil count (P=0.04 were predictors of mortality. Pump failure in the form of acute pulmonary edema or cardiogenic shock occurred in 35 (8.9% of patients. Higher leukocyte (P<0.03 and neutrophil counts (P<0.03 and higher NLR (P=0.01 were predictors of failure. The frequency of ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT/VF at the first day was associated with higher neutrophil count (P<0.001 and higher NLR level (P<0.001. In multivariate analysis neutrophil count was an independent predictor of mortality (OR=2.94; 1.1-8.4, P=0.04, and neutrophil count [OR=1.1, CI (1.01-1.20, P=0.02], female gender [OR=2.34, CI (1.02-4.88, P=0.04] and diabetes [OR=2.52, CI (1.21-5.2, P=0.003] were independent predictors of heart failure.Conclusion: A single CBC analysis may help to identify STEMI patients at risk for mortality and heart failure, and total

  14. Prediction of postoperative morbidity, mortality and rehabilitation in hip fracture patients: the cumulated ambulation score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai Bang; Kristensen, Morten Tange; Kehlet, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    to short-term outcome parameters. RESULTS: The cumulated ambulation score was a highly significant predictor for length of hospitalization, time to discharge status, 30-day mortality and postoperative medical complications (P ...OBJECTIVE: To validate the cumulated ambulation score as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome in hip fracture patients. DESIGN: Prospective, descriptive study. SETTING: An orthopaedic hip fracture unit in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Four hundred and twenty-six consecutive hip...... fracture patients with an independent walking function admitted from their own home. Rehabilitation followed a well-defined multimodal rehabilitation regimen and discharge criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Admission tests with a new mobility score to assess prefracture functional mobility and a short mental...

  15. Hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale score and ICH score: which predicts the 30-day mortality better for intracerebral hematoma?

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    Chih-Wei Wang

    Full Text Available To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality.This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018, 0.715 (P = 0.0008 (by ABC/2 to 0.738 (P = 0.0002 (by CAVA, 0.877 (P<0.0001 (by ABC/2 to 0.882 (P<0.0001 (by CAVA, and 0.912 (P<0.0001, respectively.Our study shows that hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score.

  16. F-calprotectin and blood markers correlate to Quality of Life in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Katrine; Jakobsen, Christian; Kallemose, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    III) and symptom scores (PCDAI, abbrPUCAI), fecal calprotectin (FC) measures and blood analyses (C-reactive protein [CRP], erythrocyte sedimentation-rate [ESR], orosomucoid [ORM], albumin [ALB], hemoglobin [HB] and vitamin-D [VIT-D]) in a cohort of 10-17 years old IBD patients. Data were collected...

  17. Limitations of fecal calprotectin at diagnosis in untreated pediatric Crohn's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaoul, Ron; Sladek, Marlgozata; Turner, Dan

    2012-01-01

    Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a validated screening test for intestinal inflammation in Crohn's disease (CD). The objective of the study was to prospectively evaluate the limitations of FC for identifying CD in newly diagnosed untreated pediatric patients and to assess the association of FC levels...

  18. Fecal calprotectin is equally sensitive in Crohn's disease affecting the small bowel and colon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Michael Dam; Kjeldsen, Jens; Nathan, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The utility of fecal calprotectin (fCal) in small bowel Crohn's disease (CD) remains to be clarified. The primary aim of this study was to determine levels of fCal in CD restricted to the small bowel compared with CD affecting the colon, in patients undergoing their first diagnostic work...

  19. Imaging mass spectrometry for assessing temporal proteomics: analysis of calprotectin in Acinetobacter baumannii pulmonary infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Jessica L; Becker, Kyle W; Nicklay, Joshua J; Boyd, Kelli L; Skaar, Eric P; Caprioli, Richard M

    2014-04-01

    Imaging MS is routinely used to show spatial localization of proteins within a tissue sample and can also be employed to study temporal protein dynamics. The antimicrobial S100 protein calprotectin, a heterodimer of subunits S100A8 and S100A9, is an abundant cytosolic component of neutrophils. Using imaging MS, calprotectin can be detected as a marker of the inflammatory response to bacterial challenge. In a murine model of Acinetobacter baumannii pneumonia, protein images of S100A8 and S100A9 collected at different time points throughout infection aid in visualization of the innate immune response to this pathogen. Calprotectin is detectable within 6 h of infection as immune cells respond to the invading pathogen. As the bacterial burden decreases, signals from the inflammatory proteins decrease. Calprotectin is no longer detectable 96-144 h post infection, correlating to a lack of detectable bacterial burden in lungs. These experiments provide a label-free, multiplexed approach to study host response to a bacterial threat and eventual clearance of the pathogen over time.

  20. Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: Clinical and computed tomography findings in predicting in-hospital mortality in Central Africans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Lelo Tshikwela

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH constitutes now 52% of all strokes. Despite of its deadly pattern, locally there is no clinical grading scale for ICH-related mortality prediction. The first objective of this study was to develop a risk stratification scale (Kinshasa ICH score by assessing the strength of independent predictors and their association with in-hospital 30-day mortality. The second objective of the study was to create a specific local and African model for ICH prognosis. Materials and Methods: Age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, smoking, alcohol intake, and neuroimaging data from CT scan (ICH volume, Midline shift of patients admitted with primary ICH and follow-upped in 33 hospitals of Kinshasa, DR Congo, from 2005 to 2008, were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results: A total of 185 adults and known hypertensive patients (140 men and 45 women were examined. 30-day mortality rate was 35% (n=65. ICH volume>25 mL (OR=8 95% CI: 3.1-20.2; P 7 mm, a consequence of ICH volume, was also a significant predictor of mortality. The Kinshasa ICH score was the sum of individual points assigned as follows: Presence of coma coded 2 (2 × 2 = 4, absence of coma coded 1 (1 × 2 = 2, ICH volume>25 mL coded 2 (2 × 2=4, ICH volume of ≤25 mL coded 1(1 × 2=2, left hemispheric site of ICH coded 2 (2 × 1=2, and right hemispheric site of hemorrhage coded 1(1 × 1 = 1. All patients with Kinshasa ICH score ≤7 survived and the patients with a score >7 died. In considering sex influence (Model 3, points were allowed as follows: Presence of coma (2 × 3 = 6, absence of coma (1 × 3 = 3, men (2 × 2 = 4, women (1 × 2 = 2, midline shift ≤7 mm (1 × 3 = 3, and midline shift >7 mm (2 × 3 = 6. Patients who died had the Kinshasa ICH score ≥16. Conclusion: In this study, the Kinshasa ICH score seems to be an accurate method for distinguishing those ICH patients who need continuous and special management

  1. Cardiac autonomic neuropathy predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, Anne Sofie; Tarnow, Lise; Rossing, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) has been associated with a poor prognosis in patients with diabetes. Because CAN is common in patients with diabetic nephropathy, we evaluated the predictive value of CAN in type 1 diabetic patients with and without diabetic nephropathy....

  2. Soluble CD163 from activated macrophages predicts mortality in acute liver failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Holger Jon; Grønbaek, Henning; Schiødt, Frank V

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: Soluble CD163 (sCD163) is a scavenger receptor shed in serum during inflammatory activation of macrophages. We investigated if sCD163 was increased and predicted outcome in acute liver failure (ALF). METHODS: Samples from 100 consecutive patients enrolled in the U.S. ALF Study Gr...

  3. CMR Imaging With Rapid Visual T1 Assessment Predicts Mortality in Patients Suspected of Cardiac Amyloidosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, James A.; Kim, Han W.; Shah, Dipan; Fine, Nowell; Kim, Ki-Young; Wendell, David C.; Al-Jaroudi, Wael; Parker, Michele; Patel, Manesh; Gwadry-Sridhar, Femida; Judd, Robert M.; Kim, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES This study tested the diagnostic and prognostic utility of a rapid, visual T1 assessment method for identification of cardiac amyloidosis (CA) in a “real-life” referral population undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance for suspected CA. BACKGROUND In patients with confirmed CA, delayed-enhancement cardiac magnetic resonance (DE-CMR) frequently shows a diffuse, global hyperenhancement (HE) pattern. However, imaging is often technically challenging, and the prognostic significance of diffuse HE is unclear. METHODS Ninety consecutive patients referred for suspected CA and 64 hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) were prospectively enrolled and underwent a modified DE-CMR protocol. After gadolinium administration a method for rapid, visual T1 assessment was used to identify the presence of diffuse HE during the scan, allowing immediate optimization of settings for the conventional DE-CMR that followed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. RESULTS Among patients with suspected CA, 66% (59 of 90) demonstrated HE, with 81% (48 of 59) of these meeting pre-specified visual T1 assessment criteria for diffuse HE. Among hypertensive LVH patients, 6% (4 of 64) had HE, with none having diffuse HE. During 29 months of follow-up (interquartile range: 12 to 44 months), there were 50 (56%) deaths in patients with suspected CA and 4 (6%) in patients with hypertensive LVH. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the presence of diffuse HE was the most important predictor of death in the group with suspected CA (hazard ratio: 5.5, 95% confidence interval: 2.7 to 11.0; p < 0.0001) and in the population as a whole (hazard ratio: 6.0, 95% confidence interval 3.0 to 12.1; p < 0.0001). Among 25 patients with myocardial histology obtained during follow-up, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of diffuse HE in the diagnosis of CA were 93%, 70%, and 84%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Among patients suspected of CA, the presence of diffuse HE by

  4. FECAL CALPROTECTIN: levels for the ethiological diagnosis in Brazilian patients with gastrointestinal symptoms

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    Lorete Maria da Silva KOTZE

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Determination of fecal calprotectin can provide an important guidance for the physician, also in primary care, in the differential diagnosis of gastrointestinal disorders, meanly between inflammatory bowel diseases and irritable bowel syndrome. Objectives The aims of the present study were to prospectively investigate, in Brazilian adults with gastrointestinal complaints, the value of fecal calprotectin as a biomarker for the differential diagnosis between functional and organic disorders and to correlate the concentrations with the activity of inflammatory bowel diseases. Methods The study included consecutive patients who had gastrointestinal complaints in which the measurement levels of fecal calprotectin were recommended. Fecal calprotectin was measured using a Bühlmann (Basel, Switzerland ELISA kit Results A total of 279 patients were included in the study, with median age of 39 years (range, 18 to 78 years. After clinical and laboratorial evaluation and considering the final diagnosis, patients were allocated into the following groups: a Irritable Bowel Syndrome: 154 patients (102 female and 52 male subjects. b Inflammatory Bowel Diseases group: 112 patients; 73 with Crohn’s disease; 38 female and 35 male patients; 52.1% (38/73 presented active disease, and 47.9% (35/73 had disease in remission and 39 patients with ulcerative colitis;19 female and 20 male patients; 48.7% (19/39 classified with active disease and 49.3% (20/39 with disease in remission. A significant difference (P<0.001 was observed between the median value of fecal calprotectin in Irritable Bowel Syndrome group that was 50.5 µg/g (IQR=16 - 294 µg/g; 405 µg/g (IQR=29 - 1980 µg/g in Crohn’s disease patients and 457 µg/g (IQR=25 - 1430 µg/g in ulcerative colitis patients. No difference was observed between the values found in the patients with Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. Levels of fecal calprotectin were significantly lower in patients with

  5. Does adding risk-trends to survival models improve in-hospital mortality predictions? A cohort study

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    Forster Alan J

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinicians informally assess changes in patients' status over time to prognosticate their outcomes. The incorporation of trends in patient status into regression models could improve their ability to predict outcomes. In this study, we used a unique approach to measure trends in patient hospital death risk and determined whether the incorporation of these trend measures into a survival model improved the accuracy of its risk predictions. Methods We included all adult inpatient hospitalizations between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2009 at our institution. We used the daily mortality risk scores from an existing time-dependent survival model to create five trend indicators: absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the previous day; absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and number of days with a trend in the risk score. In the derivation set, we determined which trend indicators were associated with time to death in hospital, independent of the existing covariates. In the validation set, we compared the predictive performance of the existing model with and without the trend indicators. Results Three trend indicators were independently associated with time to hospital mortality: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score. However, adding these trend indicators to the existing model resulted in only small improvements in model discrimination and calibration. Conclusions We produced several indicators of trend in patient risk that were significantly associated with time to hospital death independent of the model used to create them. In other survival models, our approach of incorporating risk trends could be explored to improve their performance without the collection of additional data.

  6. The Role of Fecal Calprotectin in Investigating Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis

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    Fatih Ünal

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Fecal calprotectin (FCP can be found in high concentrations in inflammatory bowel disease due to the increase in leucocyte turnover in intestinal wall or increase of migration of neutrophils into the lumen. In this study, we aimed to determine the FCP values of the ulcerative colitis (UC patients at the time of diagnosis and to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of this non-invasive method in the diagnosis of the disease, routinely.Materials and Methods: A total of 19 patients with UC (10 females, 9 males, age: 11.5±3.5 years old whoose stool samples collected during the diagnosis period and 20 healthy controls (10 female, 10 male, age: 10.3±4.5 years old were included in the study. Stool samples were collected for FCP analysis by ELISA method at the time of diagnosis and before the treatment period.Results: FCP values of the UC group were statistically higher than the control group. FCP values of the UC and control groups were 398.4 µg/gr stool (56.7-2450 and 19.4 µg/gr stool (2-81, respectively (p0.05. High CRP values (89.4%, elevation of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (84.2%, leukocytosis (73.6%, thrombocytosis (68.4%, anemia (89.4%, and hypoalbuminemia (52.6% were found.Conclusions: FCP values of the UC patients were found to be statistically higher than the control group, and increase in FCP values has been observed with increasing disease activity. Therefore, we believe that the determination of FCP could be useful at the time of diagnosis and during follow-up of the patients with UC. (Journal of Current Pediatrics 2012; 10: 80-4

  7. Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted.

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    Røe, Cecilie; Skandsen, Toril; Manskow, Unn; Ader, Tiina; Anke, Audny

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury) model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC). Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥ 65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic) (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light), as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT). Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7) years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5) was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI.

  8. Does Cognitive Ability Predict Mortality in the Ninth Decade? The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Catherine; Pattie, Alison; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

    2012-01-01

    To test whether cognitive ability predicts survival from age 79 to 89 years data were collected from 543 (230 male) participants who entered the study at a mean age of 79.1 years. Most had taken the Moray House Test of general intelligence (MHT) when aged 11 and 79 years from which, in addition to intelligence measures at these two time points,…

  9. Limitations of the MELD score in predicting mortality or need for removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation

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    Schmidt Jan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a poor prognosis and liver transplantation provides the only curative treatment option with excellent long-term results. The relative shortage of organ donors renders the allocation algorithms of organs essential. The optimal strategy based on scoring systems and/or waiting time is still under debate. Methods Data sets of 268 consecutive patients listed for single-organ liver transplantation for nonfulminant liver disease between 2003 and 2005 were included into the study. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP scores of all patients at the time of listing were used for calculation. The predictive ability not only for mortality on the waiting list but also for the need for withdrawal from the waiting list was calculated for both scores. The Mann-Whitney-U Test was used for the univariate analysis and the AUC-Model for discrimination of the scores. Results In the univariate analysis comparing patients who are still on the waiting list and patients who died or were removed from the waiting list due to poor conditions, the serum albumin, bilirubin INR, and CTP and MELD scores as well as the presence of ascites and encephalopathy were significantly different between the groups (p Comparing the predictive abilities of CTP and MELD scores, the best discrimination between patients still alive on the waiting list and patients who died on or were removed from the waiting list was achieved at a CTP score of ≥9 and a MELD score of ≥14.4. The sensitivity and specificity to identify mortality or severe deterioration for CTP was 69.0% and 70.5%, respectively; for MELD, it was 62.1% and 72.7%, respectively. This result was supported by the AUC analysis showing a strong trend for superiority of CTP over MELD scores (AUROC 0.73 and 0.68, resp.; p = 0.091. Conclusion The long term prediction of mortality or removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver

  10. Peritoneal wash contents used to predict mortality in a murine sepsis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuethe, Joshua W.; Midura, Emily F.; Rice, Teresa C.; Caldwell, Charles C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) is considered the gold standard for inducing abdominal sepsis in mice. However, the model lacks source control, a component of sepsis management in humans. Using a CLP-excision model, we characterized peritoneal cytokines and cells and hypothesized these analyses would allow us to predict survival. Methods Fifty-eight mice were first subjected to CLP. Twenty hours later, the necrotic cecums were debrided, abdominal cavity lavaged, and intraperitoneal antibiotics administered. Peritoneal cytokines and leukocytes collected from the peritoneal lavage were analyzed. These immune parameters were used to generate receiver operator characteristic curves. In separate experiments, the accuracy of the model was verified with a survival cohort. Finally, we collected the peritoneal lavage and analyzed both serum and peritoneal cytokines, bacterial load, and leukocyte functionality. Results Peritoneal interleukin (IL)-6 levels and neutrophil CD11b intensity were observed to be significantly different in mice that lived versus those who died. In separate experiments, mice predicted to live (P-LIVE) had decreased bacterial loads, systemic IL-10, and neutrophil oxidative burst and increased peritoneal inflammatory monocyte numbers and phagocytosis. Conclusions This study couples a clinically relevant sepsis model with methodology to limit pathogen spread. Using surgical waste, stratification of the mice into groups P-LIVE and predicted to die was possible with a high degree of accuracy and specificity. In mice P-LIVE, increased inflammatory monocyte recruitment and phagocytosis were associated with decreased systemic IL-10 and bacterial loads. PMID:26049288

  11. Gingival Crevicular Fluid Calprotectin, Osteocalcin and Cross-Linked N-Terminal Telopeptid Levels in Health and Different Periodontal Diseases

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    Sema Becerik

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of the present study was to investigate gingival crevicular fluid (GCF calprotectin, osteocalcin and cross-linked N-terminal telopeptide (NTx levels in health along with different periodontal diseases.

  12. Serum adiponectin predicts all-cause mortality and end stage renal disease in patients with type I diabetes and diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorsal, A.; Tarnow, L.; Frystyk, J.;

    2008-01-01

    Adiponectin levels are increased in patients with type I diabetes especially in the presence of microangiopathy. Here we determined the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels and 8 adiponectin gene polymorphisms for mortality, cardiovascular events and end-stage renal disease in type I...... predicted end stage renal disease in a covariate-adjusted analysis. Two of eight gene polymorphisms, found in the 878 patients, were associated with increased serum adiponectin levels but none of the polymorphisms were associated with a renal or cardiovascular outcome. These studies show that high serum...... adiponectin levels predict mortality and progression to end stage renal disease in type I diabetic patients Udgivelsesdato: 2008/9...

  13. Mortality Prediction after the First Year of Kidney Transplantation: An Observational Study on Two European Cohorts.

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    Marine Lorent

    Full Text Available After the first year post transplantation, prognostic mortality scores in kidney transplant recipients can be useful for personalizing medical management. We developed a new prognostic score based on 5 parameters and computable at 1-year post transplantation. The outcome was the time between the first anniversary of the transplantation and the patient's death with a functioning graft. Afterwards, we appraised the prognostic capacities of this score by estimating time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curves from two prospective and multicentric European cohorts: the DIVAT (Données Informatisées et VAlidées en Transplantation cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2000 and 2012 in 6 French centers; and the STCS (Swiss Transplant Cohort Study cohort composed of patients transplanted between 2008 and 2012 in 6 Swiss centers. We also compared the results with those of two existing scoring systems: one from Spain (Hernandez et al. and one from the United States (the Recipient Risk Score, RRS, Baskin-Bey et al.. From the DIVAT validation cohort and for a prognostic time at 10 years, the new prognostic score (AUC = 0.78, 95%CI = [0.69, 0.85] seemed to present significantly higher prognostic capacities than the scoring system proposed by Hernandez et al. (p = 0.04 and tended to perform better than the initial RRS (p = 0.10. By using the Swiss cohort, the RRS and the the new prognostic score had comparable prognostic capacities at 4 years (AUC = 0.77 and 0.76 respectively, p = 0.31. In addition to the current available scores related to the risk to return in dialysis, we recommend to further study the use of the score we propose or the RRS for a more efficient personalized follow-up of kidney transplant recipients.

  14. Serum Calcification Propensity Predicts All-Cause Mortality in Predialysis CKD

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    Ford, Martin L.; Tomlinson, Laurie A.; Bodenham, Emma; McMahon, Lawrence P.; Farese, Stefan; Rajkumar, Chakravarthi; Holt, Stephen G.; Pasch, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Medial arterial calcification is accelerated in patients with CKD and strongly associated with increased arterial rigidity and cardiovascular mortality. Recently, a novel in vitro blood test that provides an overall measure of calcification propensity by monitoring the maturation time (T50) of calciprotein particles in serum was described. We used this test to measure serum T50 in a prospective cohort of 184 patients with stages 3 and 4 CKD, with a median of 5.3 years of follow-up. At baseline, the major determinants of serum calcification propensity included higher serum phosphate, ionized calcium, increased bone osteoclastic activity, and lower free fetuin-A, plasma pyrophosphate, and albumin concentrations, which accounted for 49% of the variation in this parameter. Increased serum calcification propensity at baseline independently associated with aortic pulse wave velocity in the complete cohort and progressive aortic stiffening over 30 months in a subgroup of 93 patients. After adjustment for demographic, renal, cardiovascular, and biochemical covariates, including serum phosphate, risk of death among patients in the lowest T50 tertile was more than two times the risk among patients in the highest T50 tertile (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.4; P=0.04). This effect was lost, however, after additional adjustment for aortic stiffness, suggesting a shared causal pathway. Longitudinally, serum calcification propensity measurements remained temporally stable (intraclass correlation=0.81). These results suggest that serum T50 may be helpful as a biomarker in designing methods to improve defenses against vascular calcification. PMID:24179171

  15. Does adding variceal status to the Child–Turcotte–Pugh score improve its performance in predicting mortality in cirrhosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xiaoli; Wen, Maoyao; Shen, Yi; Wang, Wanqin; Yang, Xiaoxue; Yang, Li

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) score is widely used worldwide to predict outcomes across a broad spectrum of liver diseases, mainly cirrhosis. Portal hypertension and variceal bleed are significant causes of morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients, although the variceal status is not incorporated into the classical CTP score. We sought to determine whether the inclusion of variceal status, specifically the Child–Turcotte–Pugh–Kumar (CTPK) score, would improve the utility of the classical CTP score to predict the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients in a single but high-volume center in China. We retrospectively analyzed the records of 253 patients from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 and performed follow-up for at least 12 months. The CTPK score and the CTP score were obtained as soon as possible after the patient's admission. Telephone follow-up was performed to assess survival situations. At 3 and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths was 9.1% (n = 23) and 13.8% (n = 35), respectively. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the CTPK score was independently associated with death within 3 and 12 months after adjusting for potential confounders. The predictive ability related to the 2 scores was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) respectively. At 3 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.814 and 0.838, respectively. At 12 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.825 and 0.840, respectively. No significant difference between time points was observed. Both the CTPK score and the CTP score displayed prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, as the Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the CTPK score could clearly discriminate patients in the intermediate term (P < 0.001). The CTPK score provides reliable prediction of mortality in Chinese cirrhotic patients for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, although it is not superior to the CTP

  16. Does adding variceal status to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score improve its performance in predicting mortality in cirrhosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xiaoli; Wen, Maoyao; Shen, Yi; Wang, Wanqin; Yang, Xiaoxue; Yang, Li

    2016-09-01

    The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used worldwide to predict outcomes across a broad spectrum of liver diseases, mainly cirrhosis. Portal hypertension and variceal bleed are significant causes of morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients, although the variceal status is not incorporated into the classical CTP score. We sought to determine whether the inclusion of variceal status, specifically the Child-Turcotte-Pugh-Kumar (CTPK) score, would improve the utility of the classical CTP score to predict the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients in a single but high-volume center in China.We retrospectively analyzed the records of 253 patients from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014 and performed follow-up for at least 12 months. The CTPK score and the CTP score were obtained as soon as possible after the patient's admission. Telephone follow-up was performed to assess survival situations.At 3 and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths was 9.1% (n = 23) and 13.8% (n = 35), respectively. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models, the CTPK score was independently associated with death within 3 and 12 months after adjusting for potential confounders. The predictive ability related to the 2 scores was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) respectively. At 3 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.814 and 0.838, respectively. At 12 months of enrollment, the AUCs of CTPK and CTP were 0.825 and 0.840, respectively. No significant difference between time points was observed. Both the CTPK score and the CTP score displayed prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, as the Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the CTPK score could clearly discriminate patients in the intermediate term (P < 0.001).The CTPK score provides reliable prediction of mortality in Chinese cirrhotic patients for both short-term and medium-term prognoses, although it is not superior to the CTP score. Therefore, the CTP

  17. Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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    Baggen, Vivan J.M. [AHMaZON Centre for Adult Congenital Heart Disease, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Radboud University Medical Centre Nijmegen and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Department of Cardiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Leiner, Tim; Habets, Jesse [University Medical Centre Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Post, Marco C.; Dijk, Arie P. van; Sieswerda, Gertjan T. [AHMaZON Centre for Adult Congenital Heart Disease, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Radboud University Medical Centre Nijmegen and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Department of Cardiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W. [Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Boersma, Eric [Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-11-15

    To provide a comprehensive overview of all reported cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) findings that predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies published by April 2015 that reported associations between CMR findings and adverse clinical outcome in PAH. Studies were appraised using previously developed criteria for prognostic studies. Meta-analysis using random effect models was performed for CMR findings investigated by three or more studies. Eight papers (539 patients) investigating 21 different CMR findings were included. Meta-analysis showed that right ventricular (RV) ejection fraction was the strongest predictor of mortality in PAH (pooled HR 1.23 [95 % CI 1.07-1.41], p = 0.003) per 5 % decrease. In addition, RV end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.06 [95 % CI 1.00-1.12], p = 0.049), RV end-systolic volume index (pooled HR 1.05 [95 % CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.013) and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (pooled HR 1.16 [95 % CI 1.00-1.34], p = 0.045) were of prognostic importance. RV and LV mass did not provide prognostic information (p = 0.852 and p = 0.983, respectively). This meta-analysis substantiates the clinical yield of specific CMR findings in the prognostication of PAH patients. Decreased RV ejection is the strongest and most well established predictor of mortality. (orig.)

  18. Host, pathogen, and environmental characteristics predict white-nose syndrome mortality in captive little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus.

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    Joseph S Johnson

    Full Text Available An estimated 5.7 million or more bats died in North America between 2006 and 2012 due to infection with the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS during hibernation. The behavioral and physiological changes associated with hibernation leave bats vulnerable to WNS, but the persistence of bats within the contaminated regions of North America suggests that survival might vary predictably among individuals or in relation to environmental conditions. To investigate variables influencing WNS mortality, we conducted a captive study of 147 little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus inoculated with 0, 500, 5000, 50,000, or 500,000 Pd conidia and hibernated for five months at either 4 or 10°C. We found that female bats were significantly more likely to survive hibernation, as were bats hibernated at 4°C, and bats with greater body condition at the start of hibernation. Although all bats inoculated with Pd exhibited shorter torpor bouts compared to controls, a characteristic of WNS, only bats inoculated with 500 conidia had significantly lower survival odds compared to controls. These data show that host and environmental characteristics are significant predictors of WNS mortality, and that exposure to up to 500 conidia is sufficient to cause a fatal infection. These results also illustrate a need to quantify dynamics of Pd exposure in free-ranging bats, as dynamics of WNS produced in captive studies inoculating bats with several hundred thousand conidia may differ from those in the wild.

  19. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P failure, this simple...

  20. Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, Behrooz; Amanat, Mahnaz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Safari, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importance for their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognostic model in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM) and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO) of patients with traumatic brain injury. Methods: In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discrimination of CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variables required for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER), and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ER of 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUO were recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated. The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. Results: In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0 ± 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male). Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and 6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P < 0.05). Area under the curve in the basic model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.96) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. In addition, area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.96), respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of the two models in prediction of 14-DM (p = 0.11) and 6-MUO (p = 0.1). Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DM and 6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models, using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk

  1. Increased levels of calprotectin in obesity are related to macrophage content: impact on inflammation and effect of weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán, Victoria; Gómez-Ambrosi, Javier; Rodríguez, Amaia; Ramírez, Beatriz; Rotellar, Fernando; Valentí, Victor; Silva, Camilo; Gil, María J; Fernández-Real, José Manuel; Salvador, Javier; Frühbeck, Gema

    2011-01-01

    Calprotectin has been recently described as a novel marker of obesity. The aim of this study was to determine the circulating concentrations and expression levels of calprotectin subunits (S100A8 and S100A9) in visceral adipose tissue (VAT), exploring its impact on insulin resistance and inflammation and the effect of weight loss. We included 53 subjects in the study. Gene expression levels of the S100A8/A9 complex were analyzed in VAT as well as in both adipocytes and stromovascular fraction cells (SVFCs). In addition, circulating calprotectin and soluble receptor for the advanced glycation end product (sRAGE) concentrations were measured before and after weight loss achieved by Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (n = 26). Circulating concentrations and VAT expression of S100A8/A9 complex were increased in normoglycemic and type 2 diabetic obese patients (P calprotectin levels in obese patients decreased (P Calprotectin was mainly expressed by SVFCs, and its expression was significantly correlated (P calprotectin in obesity and obesity-associated type 2 diabetes, its positive association with inflammation as well as the higher expression levels in the SVFCs in VAT suggests a potential role of this protein as a chemotactic factor in the recruitment of macrophages to VAT, increasing inflammation and the development of obesity-associated comorbidities.

  2. Inflammatory bowel disease activity assessed by fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin: correlation with laboratory parameters, clinical, endoscopic and histological indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossini Lucio

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Research has shown that fecal biomarkers are useful to assess the activity of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD. The aim of the study is: to evaluate the efficacy of the fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin as indicators of inflammatory activity. Findings A total of 78 patients presenting inflammatory bowel disease were evaluated. Blood tests, the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI, Mayo Disease Activity Index (MDAI, and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS were used for the clinical and endoscopic evaluation. Two tests were performed on the fecal samples, to check the levels of calprotectin and lactoferrin. The performance of these fecal markers for detection of inflammation with reference to endoscopic and histological inflammatory activity was assessed and calculated sensitivity, specificity, accuracy. A total of 52 patient's samples whose histological evaluations showed inflammation, 49 were lactoferrin-positive, and 40 were calprotectin-positive (p = 0.000. Lactoferrin and calprotectin findings correlated with C-reactive protein in both the CD and UC groups (p = 0.006; p = 0.000, with CDAI values (p = 0.043; 0.010, CDEIS values in DC cases (p = 0,000; 0.000, and with MDAI values in UC cases (p = 0.000. Conclusion Fecal lactoferrin and calprotectin are highly sensitive and specific markers for detecting intestinal inflammation. Levels of fecal calprotectin have a proportional correlation to the degree of inflammation of the intestinal mucosa.

  3. The ratio of CRP to prealbumin levels predict mortality in patients with hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

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    Hao Chuanming

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Animal and human studies suggest that inflammation and malnutrition are common in acute kidney injury (AKI patients. However, only a few studies reported CRP, a marker of inflammation, albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol, markers of nutritional status were associated with the prognosis of AKI patients. No study examined whether the combination of inflammatory and nutritional markers could predict the mortality of AKI patients. Methods 155 patients with hospital-acquired AKI were recruited to this prospective cohort study according to RIFLE (Risk, Injury, Failure, Lost or End Stage Kidney criteria. C-reactive protein (CRP, and the nutritional markers (albumin, prealbumin and cholesterol measured at nephrology consultation were analyzed in relation to all cause mortality of these patients. In addition, CRP and prealbumin were also measured in healthy controls (n = 45, maintenance hemodialysis (n = 70 and peritoneal dialysis patients (n = 50 and then compared with AKI patients. Results Compared with healthy controls and end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis, patients with AKI had significantly higher levels of CRP/prealbumin (p 28 days. Similarly, the combined factors including the ratio of CRP to albumin (CRP/albumin, CRP/prealbumin and CRP/cholesterol were also significantly higher in the former group (p p = 0.027 while the others (CRP, albumin, prealbumin, cholesterol, CRP/albumin and CRP/cholesterol became non-significantly associated. The hazard ratio was 1.00 (reference, 1.85, 2.25 and 3.89 for CRP/prealbumin increasing according to quartiles (p = 0.01 for the trend. Conclusions Inflammation and malnutrition were common in patients with AKI. Higher level of the ratio of CRP to prealbumin was associated with mortality of AKI patients independent of the severity of illness and it may be a valuable addition to SOFA score to independent of the severity of illness and it may be a

  4. Hepcidin-25 in diabetic chronic kidney disease is predictive for mortality and progression to end stage renal disease.

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    Martin Wagner

    Full Text Available Anemia is common and is associated with impaired clinical outcomes in diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD. It may be explained by reduced erythropoietin (EPO synthesis, but recent data suggest that EPO-resistance and diminished iron availability due to inflammation contribute significantly. In this cohort study, we evaluated the impact of hepcidin-25--the key hormone of iron-metabolism--on clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with CKD along with endogenous EPO levels.249 diabetic patients with CKD of any stage, excluding end-stage renal disease (ESRD, were enrolled (2003-2005, if they were not on EPO-stimulating agent and iron therapy. Hepcidin-25 levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The association of hepcidin-25 at baseline with clinical variables was investigated using linear regression models. All-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of CKD progression (ESRD or doubling of serum creatinine were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models.Patients (age 67 yrs, 53% male, GFR 51 ml/min, hemoglobin 131 g/L, EPO 13.5 U/L, hepcidin-25 62.0 ng/ml were followed for a median time of 4.2 yrs. Forty-nine patients died (19.7% and forty (16.1% patients reached the composite endpoint. Elevated hepcidin levels were independently associated with higher ferritin-levels, lower EPO-levels and impaired kidney function (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was related to mortality, along with its interaction with EPO, older age, greater proteinuria and elevated CRP (all p<0.05. Hepcidin was also predictive for progression of CKD, aside from baseline GFR, proteinuria, low albumin- and hemoglobin-levels and a history of CVD (all p<0.05.We found hepcidin-25 to be associated with EPO and impaired kidney function in diabetic CKD. Elevated hepcidin-25 and EPO-levels were independent predictors of mortality, while hepcidin-25 was also predictive for progression of CKD. Both hepcidin-25 and EPO may represent important prognostic factors of clinical outcome and have the

  5. Prediction of mortality at age 40 in Danish males at high and low risk for alcoholism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knop, J; Penick, E C; L Mortensen, E

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This prospective high-risk study examined the influence of father's alcoholism and other archival-generated measures on premature death. METHOD: Sons of alcoholic fathers (n = 223) and sons of non-alcoholic fathers (n = 106) have been studied from birth to age 40. Archival predictors...... of premature death included father's alcoholism, childhood developmental data, and diagnostic information obtained from the Psychiatric Register and alcoholism clinics. RESULTS: By age 40, 21 of the 329 subjects had died (6.4%), a rate that is more than two times greater than expected. Sons of alcoholic...... fathers were not more likely to die by age 40. Premature death was associated with physical immaturity at 1-year of age and psychiatric/alcoholism treatment. No significant interactions were found between risk and archival measures. CONCLUSION: Genetic vulnerability did not independently predict death...

  6. Predicting the mortality from asbestos-related diseases based on the amount of asbestos used and the effects of slate buildings in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-Young; Kim, Young-Chan; Kim, Yongku; Hong, Won-Hwa

    2016-01-15

    Asbestos has been used since ancient times, owing to its heat-resistant, rot-proof, and insulating qualities, and its usage rapidly increased after the industrial revolution. In Korea, all slates were previously manufactured in a mixture of about 90% cement and 10% chrysotile (white asbestos). This study used a Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model after creating databases of the mortality from asbestos-related diseases and of the amount of asbestos used in Korea as a means to predict the future mortality of asbestos-related diseases and mesothelioma in Korea. Moreover, to predict the future mortality according to the effects of slate buildings, a comparative analysis based on the result of the GPR model was conducted after creating databases of the amount of asbestos used in Korea and of the amount of asbestos used in making slates. We predicted the mortality from asbestos-related diseases by year, from 2014 to 2036, according to the amount of asbestos used. As a result, it was predicted that a total of 1942 people (maximum, 3476) will die by 2036. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis according to the influence index, it was predicted that a maximum of 555 people will die from asbestos-related diseases by 2031 as a result of the effects of asbestos-containing slate buildings, and the mortality was predicted to peak in 2021, with 53 cases. Although mesothelioma and pulmonary asbestosis were considered as asbestos-related diseases, these are not the only two diseases caused by asbestos. However the results of this study are highly important and relevant, as, for the first time in Korea, the future mortality from asbestos-related diseases was predicted. These findings are expected to contribute greatly to the Korean government's policies related to the compensation for asbestos victims.

  7. Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients

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    Behrooz Hashemi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients withtraumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importancefor their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognosticmodel in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO of patients withtraumatic brain injury. Methods: In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discriminationof CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variablesrequired for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER, and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ERof 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUOwere recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated.The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. Results: In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0´s 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male. Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P Ç 0.05. Area under the curve in the basic model for predictionof 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89–0.96 and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90–0.95, respectively. In addition,area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91–0.97 and0.93 (95% CI: 0.91–0.96, respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of thetwo models in prediction of 14-DM (p Æ 0.11 and 6-MUO (p Æ 0.1. Conclusion: The results of the presentstudy showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DMand6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models,using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk

  8. Value of echocardiography for stroke and mortality prediction following coronary artery bypass grafting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluck, Orit; Berman, Marius; Stamler, Alon; Sahar, Gideon; Kogan, Alexander; Porat, Eyal; Sagie, Alexander

    2007-02-01

    There are known clinical and laboratory predictors for stroke and death following CABG. The aim of this study was to determine if transthoracic echocardiographic findings prior to CABG have additional predictive value for occurrence of perioperative cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and death. The files of patients who underwent CABG between January 2002 and November 2004, with perioperative echocardiographic assessment were reviewed. Echocardiographic variables examined included LV size, function and hypertrophy, mitral annulus calcification (MAC) and aortic valve calcification (AVC). Patients in whom post-CABG stroke or death was documented were compared with those without these endpoints. Of the 572 patients who met the study criteria, 33 (5.8%) had a neurological event and 26 (4.5%) died, four after a major stroke. One hundred and sixty-seven patients had MAC and 228 AVC. On multivariate analysis, risk factors for stroke were previous stroke (OR=2.91 CI 1.179-7.24; PMAC with stroke, although death was slightly increased in patients with MAC (44% vs. 29.2%, P=0.114).

  9. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) -based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-07-14

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as "serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl," "age above 79 years," "without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker," "without taking beta-blocker," "without taking loop diuretics," "with mechanical ventilator support," "with non-invasive ventilator support," "with vasopressors use," and "experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation" were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients.

  10. Liver stiffness by transient elastography predicts liver-related complications and mortality in patients with chronic liver disease.

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    Jack X Q Pang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan is a validated method for noninvasively staging liver fibrosis. Most hepatic complications occur in patients with advanced fibrosis. Our objective was to determine the ability of LSM by TE to predict hepatic complications and mortality in a large cohort of patients with chronic liver disease. METHODS: In consecutive adults who underwent LSM by TE between July 2008 and June 2011, we used Cox regression to determine the independent association between liver stiffness and death or hepatic complications (decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The performance of LSM to predict complications was determined using the c-statistic. RESULTS: Among 2,052 patients (median age 51 years, 65% with hepatitis B or C, 87 patients (4.2% died or developed a hepatic complication during a median follow-up period of 15.6 months (interquartile range, 11.0-23.5 months. Patients with complications had higher median liver stiffness than those without complications (13.5 vs. 6.0 kPa; P<0.00005. The 2-year incidence rates of death or hepatic complications were 2.6%, 9%, 19%, and 34% in patients with liver stiffness <10, 10-19.9, 20-39.9, and ≥40 kPa, respectively (P<0.00005. After adjustment for potential confounders, liver stiffness by TE was an independent predictor of complications (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05 per kPa; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.06. The c-statistic of liver-stiffness for predicting complications was 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.85. A liver stiffness below 20 kPa effectively excluded complications (specificity 93%, negative predictive value 97%; however, the positive predictive value of higher results was sub-optimal (20%. CONCLUSIONS: Liver stiffness by TE accurately predicts the risk of death or hepatic complications in patients with chronic liver disease. TE may facilitate the estimation of prognosis and guide management of these patients.

  11. Seven-Day Mortality Can Be Predicted in Medical Patients by Blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory Rate, Loss of Independence, and Peripheral Oxygen Saturation (the PARIS Score)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Knudsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Most existing risk stratification systems predicting mortality in emergency departments or admission units are complex in clinical use or have not been validated to a level where use is considered appropriate. We aimed to develop and validate a simple system that predicts seven....... The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5%) met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0%) in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3%) in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were...

  12. Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

    2014-11-01

    Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality.

  13. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  14. Predicting 14-day mortality after severe traumatic brain injury: application of the IMPACT models in the brain trauma foundation TBI-trac® New York State database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roozenbeek, Bob; Chiu, Ya-Lin; Lingsma, Hester F; Gerber, Linda M; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Ghajar, Jamshid; Maas, Andrew I R

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are important instruments in both clinical practice and research. To remain current a continuous process of model validation is necessary. We aimed to investigate the performance of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) prognostic models in predicting mortality in a contemporary New York State TBI registry developed and maintained by the Brain Trauma Foundation. The Brain Trauma Foundation (BTF) TBI-trac® database contains data on 3125 patients who sustained severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤ 8) in New York State between 2000 and 2009. The outcome measure was 14-day mortality. To predict 14-day mortality with admission data, we adapted the IMPACT Core and Extended models. Performance of the models was assessed by determining calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), and discrimination (separation of those patients who die from those who survive). Calibration was explored graphically with calibration plots. Discrimination was expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). A total of 2513 out of 3125 patients in the BTF database met the inclusion criteria. The 14-day mortality rate was 23%. The models showed excellent calibration. Mean predicted probabilities were 20% for the Core model and 24% for the Extended model. Both models showed good discrimination with AUCs of 0.79 (Core) and 0.83 (Extended). We conclude that the IMPACT models validly predict 14-day mortality in the BTF database, confirming generalizability of these models for outcome prediction in TBI patients.

  15. Predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm incidence and mortality due to secondary neutrons in a girl and boy receiving proton craniospinal irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taddei, Phillip J; Mirkovic, Dragan; Zhang Rui; Giebeler, Annelise; Harvey, Mark; Newhauser, Wayne D [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd, Houston, TX 77030 (United States); Mahajan, Anita; Kornguth, David; Woo, Shiao, E-mail: ptaddei@mdanderson.or [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd, Houston, TX 77030 (United States)

    2010-12-07

    The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) incidence and mortality from secondary neutrons for a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy who received proton craniospinal irradiation (CSI). SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons were predicted from equivalent doses to radiosensitive organs for cranial, spinal and intracranial boost fields. Therapeutic proton absorbed dose and equivalent dose from neutrons were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Risks of SMN incidence and mortality in most organs and tissues were predicted by applying risks models from the National Research Council of the National Academies to the equivalent dose from neutrons; for non-melanoma skin cancer, risk models from the International Commission on Radiological Protection were applied. The lifetime absolute risks of SMN incidence due to neutrons were 14.8% and 8.5%, for the girl and boy, respectively. The risks of a fatal SMN were 5.3% and 3.4% for the girl and boy, respectively. The girl had a greater risk for any SMN except colon and liver cancers, indicating that the girl's higher risks were not attributable solely to greater susceptibility to breast cancer. Lung cancer predominated the risk of SMN mortality for both patients. This study suggests that the risks of SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons may be greater for girls than for boys treated with proton CSI.

  16. Predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm incidence and mortality due to secondary neutrons in a girl and boy receiving proton craniospinal irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taddei, Phillip J.; Mahajan, Anita; Mirkovic, Dragan; Zhang, Rui; Giebeler, Annelise; Kornguth, David; Harvey, Mark; Woo, Shiao; Newhauser, Wayne D.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) incidence and mortality from secondary neutrons for a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy who received proton craniospinal irradiation (CSI). SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons were predicted from equivalent doses to radiosensitive organs for cranial, spinal and intracranial boost fields. Therapeutic proton absorbed dose and equivalent dose from neutrons were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Risks of SMN incidence and mortality in most organs and tissues were predicted by applying risks models from the National Research Council of the National Academies to the equivalent dose from neutrons; for non-melanoma skin cancer, risk models from the International Commission on Radiological Protection were applied. The lifetime absolute risks of SMN incidence due to neutrons were 14.8% and 8.5%, for the girl and boy, respectively. The risks of a fatal SMN were 5.3% and 3.4% for the girl and boy, respectively. The girl had a greater risk for any SMN except colon and liver cancers, indicating that the girl's higher risks were not attributable solely to greater susceptibility to breast cancer. Lung cancer predominated the risk of SMN mortality for both patients. This study suggests that the risks of SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons may be greater for girls than for boys treated with proton CSI.

  17. Cerebrospinal fluid cytokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph N Jarvis

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the host immune response during cryptococcal meningitis (CM is of critical importance for the development of immunomodulatory therapies. We profiled the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF immune-response in ninety patients with HIV-associated CM, and examined associations between immune phenotype and clinical outcome. CSF cytokine, chemokine, and macrophage activation marker concentrations were assayed at disease presentation, and associations between these parameters and microbiological and clinical outcomes were examined using principal component analysis (PCA. PCA demonstrated a co-correlated CSF cytokine and chemokine response consisting primarily of Th1, Th2, and Th17-type cytokines. The presence of this CSF cytokine response was associated with evidence of increased macrophage activation, more rapid clearance of Cryptococci from CSF, and survival at 2 weeks. The key components of this protective immune-response were interleukin (IL-6 and interferon-γ, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-17 levels also made a modest positive contribution to the PC1 score. A second component of co-correlated chemokines was identified by PCA, consisting primarily of monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1 and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α. High CSF chemokine concentrations were associated with low peripheral CD4 cell counts and CSF lymphocyte counts and were predictive of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS. In conclusion CSF cytokine and chemokine profiles predict risk of early mortality and IRIS in HIV-associated CM. We speculate that the presence of even minimal Cryptococcus-specific Th1-type CD4+ T-cell responses lead to increased recruitment of circulating lymphocytes and monocytes into the central nervous system (CNS, more effective activation of CNS macrophages and microglial cells, and faster organism clearance; while high CNS chemokine levels may predispose to over recruitment or inappropriate recruitment of immune cells to the CNS and

  18. Faecal calprotectin as a novel biomarker for differentiating between inflammatory bowel disease and irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ming-Hui; Chou, Jen-Wei; Chen, Shan-Ming; Tsai, Ming-Chang; Sun, Yu-Shu; Lin, Chun-Che; Lin, Ching-Pin

    2014-07-01

    The present study aimed to investigate faecal calprotectin as a diagnostic marker to differentiate between patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and those with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). A total of 20 healthy control subjects, 26 patients with IBS and 58 patients with IBD, including 22 with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 36 with Crohn's disease (CD), were recruited for the present study. Calprotectin was analysed in stool samples, and C-reactive protein (CRP) and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were assessed in blood samples. CRP and calprotectin levels, and the ESR were observed to be significantly higher in patients with CD and UC compared with those of the healthy control subjects (Pcalprotectin and CRP levels were observed (694.8±685.0 µg/g in IBD vs. 85.8±136.1 µg/g in IBS and 0.851±1.200 mg/dl in IBD vs. 0.16±0.23 mg/dl in IBS, respectively; Pcalprotectin [0.931±0.029; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.874‑0.987] were significantly higher than that of CRP (0.865±0.041; 95% CI, 0.785‑0.946) and the ESR (0.869±0.042; 95% CI, 0.786‑0.952). These findings indicate that faecal calprotectin may represent a novel biomarker for diagnosing IBD and may be effective in distinguishing between IBD and IBS.

  19. Combining serum cystatin C with total bilirubin improves short-term mortality prediction in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihong Wan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND & AIMS: HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF is a severe liver disease which results in a high mortality in China. To early predict the prognosis of the patients may prevent the complications and improve the survival. This study was aimed to develop a new prognostic index to estimate the survival related to HBV-ACLF. METHODS: Consecutive patients with HBV-ACLF were included in a prospective observational study. Serum Cystatin C concentrations were measured by using the particle-enhanced immunonephelometry assay. All of the patients were followed for at least 3 months. Cox regression analysis was carried out to identify which factors were predictive of mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC was used to evaluate the efficacy of the variates for early predicting mortality. RESULTS: Seventy-two patients with HBV-ACLF were recruited between January 2012 and January 2013. Thirty patients died (41.7% during 3-months followed up. Cox multivariate regression analysis identified serum cystatin C (CysC and total bilirubin (TBil were independent factors significantly (P < 0.01 associated with survival. Our results further showed that new prognostic index (PI combining serum CysC with TBil was a good indicator for predicting the mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Specifically, the PI had a higher accuracy than the CTP, MELD, or MELD-Na scoring for early prediction short-term survival of HBV-ACLF patients with normal levels of serum creatinine (Cr. The survival rate in low risk group (PI < 3.91 was 94.3%, which was markedly higher than those in the high-risk group (PI ≥ 3.91 (17.4%, P < 0.001. CONCLUSION: We developed a new prognostic index combining serum CysC with TBil which early predicted the short-term mortality of HBV-ACLF patients.

  20. Predictive value of a profile of routine blood measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population: the Leiden 85-plus Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne H van Houwelingen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Various questionnaires and performance tests predict mortality in older people. However, most are heterogeneous, laborious and a validated consensus index is not available yet. Since most older people are regularly monitored by laboratory tests, we compared the predictive value of a profile of seven routine laboratory measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population with other predictors of mortality; gait speed and disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Within the Leiden 85-plus Study, a prospective population-based study, we followed 562 participants aged 85 years for mortality over five years. At baseline (age 85 years high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albumin, alanine transaminase, hemoglobin, creatinin clearance, C-reactive protein and homocysteine were measured. Participants were stratified based on their number of laboratory abnormalities (0, 1, 2-4 and 5-7. The predictive capacity was compared with gait speed (6-meter walking test and disability in IADL (Groningen Activity Restriction Scale by C-statistics. At baseline, 418 (74% 85-year old participants had at least one laboratory abnormality. All cause mortality risk increased with increasing number of laboratory abnormalities to a hazard ratio of 5.64 [95% CI 3.49-9.12] for those with 5-7 laboratory abnormalities (p<0.001 compared to those without abnormalities. The c-statistic was 0.66 [95% CI 0.59-0.69], similar to that of gait speed and disability in IADL. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the general population of oldest old, the number of abnormalities in seven routine laboratory measurements predicts five-year mortality as accurately as gait speed and IADL disability.

  1. Zinc and Manganese Chelation by Neutrophil S100A8/A9 (Calprotectin) Limits Extracellular Aspergillus fumigatus Hyphal Growth and Corneal Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Heather L; Jhingran, Anupam; Sun, Yan; Vareechon, Chairut; de Jesus Carrion, Steven; Skaar, Eric P; Chazin, Walter J; Calera, José Antonio; Hohl, Tobias M; Pearlman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9, is an abundant neutrophil protein that possesses antimicrobial activity primarily because of its ability to chelate zinc and manganese. In the current study, we showed that neutrophils from calprotectin-deficient S100A9(-/-) mice have an impaired ability to inhibit Aspergillus fumigatus hyphal growth in vitro and in infected corneas in a murine model of fungal keratitis; however, the ability to inhibit hyphal growth was restored in S100A9(-/-) mice by injecting recombinant calprotectin. Furthermore, using recombinant calprotectin with mutations in either the Zn and Mn binding sites or the Mn binding site alone, we show that both zinc and manganese binding are necessary for calprotectin's antihyphal activity. In contrast to hyphae, we found no role for neutrophil calprotectin in uptake or killing of intracellular A. fumigatus conidia either in vitro or in a murine model of pulmonary aspergillosis. We also found that an A. fumigatus ∆zafA mutant, which demonstrates deficient zinc transport, exhibits impaired growth in infected corneas and following incubation with neutrophils or calprotectin in vitro as compared with wild-type. Collectively, these studies demonstrate a novel stage-specific susceptibility of A. fumigatus to zinc and manganese chelation by neutrophil-derived calprotectin.

  2. FECAL CALPROTECTIN AND GASTROINTESTINAL (GI) PERMEABILITY CORRELATE WITH DISEASE ACTIVITY INDEX, AND HISTOLOGIC, ENDOSCOPIC, AND RADIOLOGIC FINDINGS IN CHILDREN WITH CROHN DISEASE (CD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fecal calprotectin and permeability are noninvasive measures of GI inflammation and damage, respectively. However, there are scant data as to the possible association between the tests and CD disease activity in children. We hypothesized that levels of fecal calprotectin and permeability would corre...

  3. Role of suPAR and Lactic Acid in Diagnosing Sepsis and Predicting Mortality in Elderly Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khater, Walaa S.; Salah-Eldeen, Noha N.; Khater, Mohamed S.; Saleh, Asghraf N.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the diagnostic value of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and serum lactate in elderly patients with sepsis and evaluated their capacity to predict mortality and their correlation to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. The study included 80 participants, divided into two groups: 40 cases (mean age, 68.9 ± 5.9) admitted to the intensive care unit and 40 healthy controls (mean age, 67.1 ± 6.2). Elderly patients with sepsis had significantly higher levels of serum suPAR and lactic acid compared to healthy controls. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that suPAR (cutoff value, ≥4.37 ng/ml) has higher area under the curve (AUC) than lactic acid (cutoff value, ≥1.95 mmol/l) for diagnosing sepsis. Serum lactate has superior prognostic value compared to suPAR with AUC of 0.82 (cutoff value, 2.2 mmol/l) and 0.72 (cutoff value, 6.3 ng/ml), respectively. The diagnostic power of combined usage of suPAR and lactate serum concentrations showed AUC of 0.988 (95% confidence interval 0.934 to 1.0). The combination of both biomarkers either together or with SOFA score may serve as a useful guide to patients who need more intensive resuscitation.

  4. Rapid fecal calprotectin testing to assess for endoscopic disease activity in inflammatory bowel disease: A diagnostic cohort study

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    Lukasz Kwapisz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aim: With increasing numbers of patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, it is important to identify noninvasive methods of detecting disease activity. The aim of this study is to examine the diagnostic accuracy of fecal rapid calprotectin (FC testing in the detection of endoscopically active IBD. Patients and Methods: All consecutive patients presenting to outpatient clinics with lower gastrointestinal symptoms were prospectively recruited. Patients provided FC samples. Sensitivity (Sn, specificity (Sp, positive predictive value (PPV, and negative predictive value (NPV for FC were calculated. Receiver–operator characteristics (ROC curve was used to identify the ideal FC cutoff that predicts endoscopic disease activity. Correlation between FC and endoscopic disease activity, disease location, and C-reactive protein (CRP levels were measured. Results: One hundred and twenty-six patients, of whom 52% were females, were included in the final analysis with a mean age of 44.4 ± 16.7 years. Comparing FC to endoscopic findings, the following results were calculated: A cutoff point of 100 μg/g showed Sn = 83%, Sp = 67%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 85%; and 200 μg/g showed Sn = 66%, Sp = 82%, PPV = 73%, and NPV = 77%. Based on ROC curve, the best FC cutoff point to predict endoscopic disease activity was 140 μg/g. Using this reference, FC levels strongly correlated with colorectal, ileocolonic, and ileal disease and predicted endoscopic activity. Conclusions: FC is an accurate test when used as an initial screening tool for patients suspected of having active IBD. Given its noninvasive nature, it may prove to reduce the need for colonoscopy and be an added tool in the management of IBD.

  5. Quality of Life Is Related to Fecal Calprotectin Concentrations in Colonic Crohn Disease and Ulcerative Colitis, but not in Ileal Crohn Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauss, Annika; Geib, Thomas; Hinz, Ulf; Schaefert, Rainer; Zwickel, Philipp; Zawierucha, Anna; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Klute, Lukas

    2016-04-01

    To formulate therapy goals, we aimed to define the relationship between fecal calprotectin and health-related quality of life in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This retrospective single-center cross-sectional study included ambulatory IBD patients who had completed standardized questionnaires comprising items of health-related quality of life (Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire) and clinical disease activity scores, and who had provided stool samples for calprotectin determination within 30 days of questionnaire completion. Correlation analyses were performed between the indicated parameters. Post hoc analysis was conducted, taking into account only data from patients with fecal calprotectin concentrations measured within 3 days of questionnaire completion. One hundred ninety-seven patients with Crohn disease and 111 patients with ulcerative colitis were enrolled in the study. Lower fecal calprotectin concentrations were associated with better health-related quality of life. The correlations were weak, but stronger if only fecal calprotectin concentrations measured within 3 days of questionnaire completion were included (results for 3 days; Crohn disease: n = 86, rS = -0.419, P calprotectin concentration and health-related quality of life was found in patients with colonic involvement (n = 59, rS = -0.470, P calprotectin concentrations and clinical disease activity were also only weak to moderate. Owing to its moderate correlation with fecal calprotectin concentrations in IBD patients with colonic involvement, health-related quality of life should be used in combination with other markers for IBD management. This is even more important in isolated ileal Crohn disease, where no significant correlation between fecal calprotectin concentration and health-related quality of life was found. Especially for use in research studies, care should be taken to keep the time between clinical evaluation of IBD patients and the determination

  6. S-Calprotectin (S100A8/S100A9: A Potential Marker of Inflammation in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis

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    Claes Hansson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyse levels of S100A8/S100A9 (calprotectin and selected cytokines, in blood, in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA. Methods. Sixty-five patients with PsA were examined for clinical manifestations and laboratory measurements of S-calprotectin, ESR, hs-CRP, and selected cytokines. Thirty-two patients had mono-/oligoarthritis and 33 had polyarthritis. S-calprotectin, hs-CRP, and cytokines were measured using ELISA, immunoturbidimetry, and multiplex technology (Bio-Plex. Patients with PsA were compared with 31 healthy controls. Results. S-calprotectin and hs-CRP levels were significantly higher in patients with PsA compared with controls (P<0.001 and P<0.001, resp.. Patients suffering a polyarthritic disease pattern presented with significantly higher levels of S-calprotectin compared with controls and patients with mono-/oligoarthritis (P<0.001 and P=0.017, resp.. The levels of S-calprotectin correlated with hs-CRP (P<0.001; rs=0.441, swollen joint count (P=0.002, rs=0.397, and CXCL10 (P=0.046, rs=0.678 but not with any of the other cytokines evaluated. In multiple logistic regression analysis, S-calprotectin was the only variable significantly associated with psoriatic arthritis (P=0.002, OR=1.006, 95% CI = 1.002–1.010. Conclusion. S-calprotectin and hs-CRP levels were significantly higher in patients with PsA. A polyarthritic disease pattern showed higher levels of S-calprotectin than mono-/oligoarthritis. S-calprotectin is considered a potential marker of disease activity in patients with PsA.

  7. Predictive factors of hospital mortality due to myocardial infarction: A multilevel analysis of Iran′s National Data

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    Ali Ahmadi

    2015-01-01

    Conclusions: Individual risk factors had independent effects on the hospital mortality due to MI. Variables in the province level had no significant effect on the outcome of MI. Increasing access and quality to treatment could reduce the mortality due to MI.

  8. High mortality risk among individuals assumed to be TB-negative can be predicted using a simple test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rabna, Paulo; Andersen, Andreas; Wejse, Christian

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine mortality among assumed TB negative (aTBneg) individuals in Guinea-Bissau and to investigate whether plasma levels of soluble urokinase receptor (suPAR) can be used to determine post-consultation mortality risk. METHODS: This prospective West-African cohort study included...

  9. Forced expiratory volume in one second predicts length of stay and in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: a retrospective cohort study.

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    David A McAllister

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: An aging population and increasing use of percutaneous therapies have resulted in older patients with more co-morbidity being referred for cardiac surgery. Objective measurements of physiological reserve and severity of co-morbid disease are required to improve risk stratification. We hypothesised that FEV1 would predict mortality and length of stay following cardiac surgery. METHODS: We assessed clinical outcomes in 2,241 consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valve surgery from 2001 to 2007 in a regional cardiac centre. Generalized linear models of the association between FEV1 and length of hospital stay and mortality were adjusted for age, sex, height, body mass index, socioeconomic status, smoking, cardiovascular risk factors, long-term use of bronchodilators or steroids for lung disease, and type and urgency of surgery. FEV1 was compared to an established risk prediction model, the EuroSCORE. RESULTS: Spirometry was performed in 2,082 patients (93% whose mean (SD age was 67 (10 years. Median hospital stay was 3 days longer in patients in the lowest compared to the highest quintile for FEV1, 1.35-fold higher (95% CI 1.20-1.52; p<0.001. The adjusted odds ratio for mortality was increased 2.11-fold (95% CI 1.45-3.08; p<0.001 per standard deviation decrement in FEV1 (800 ml. FEV1 improved discrimination of the EuroSCORE for mortality. Similar associations were found after excluding people with known pulmonary disease and/or airflow limitation on spirometry. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced FEV1 strongly predicted increased length of stay and in-hospital mortality following cardiac surgery. FEV1 is a widely available measure of physiological health that may improve risk stratification of complex patients undergoing cardiac surgery and should be evaluated for inclusion in new prediction tools.

  10. Music therapy-induced changes in salivary cortisol level are predictive of cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hou YC

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Yi-Chou Hou,1 Yen-Ju Lin,2 Kuo-Cheng Lu,1 Han-Sun Chiang,3 Chia-Chi Chang,4 Li-King Yang1 1Department of Internal Medicine, Cardinal Tien Hospital, School of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2Department of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, 3Graduate Institute of Basic Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, 4School of Gerontology Health Management, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan, Republic of China Background: Music therapy has been applied in hemodialysis (HD patients for relieving mental stress. Whether the stress-relieving effect by music therapy is predictive of clinical outcome in HD patients is still unclear.Methods: We recruited a convenience sample of 99 patients on maintenance HD and randomly assigned them to the experimental (n=49 or control (n=50 group. The experimental group received relaxing music therapy for 1 week, whereas the control group received no music therapy. In the experimental group, we compared cardiovascular mortality in the patients with and without cortisol changes.Results: The salivary cortisol level was lowered after 1 week of music therapy in the experimental group (−2.41±3.08 vs 1.66±2.11 pg/mL, P<0.05, as well as the frequency of the adverse reaction score (−3.35±5.76 vs −0.81±4.59, P<0.05, the severity of adverse reactions score (−1.93±2.73 vs 0.33±2.71, P<0.05, and hemodialysis stressor scale (HSS score (−6.00±4.68 vs −0.877±7.08, P<0.05. The difference in salivary cortisol correlated positively with HD stress score scales (r=0.231, P<0.05, systolic blood pressure (r=0.264, P<0.05, and respiratory rates (r=0.369, P<0.05 and negatively with finger temperature (r=−0.235, P<0.05 in the total study population. The 5-year cardiovascular survival in the experimental group was higher in patients whose salivary cortisol lowered by <0.6 pg/mL than that in patients whose salivary cortisol lowered by >0.6 pg/mL (83.8% vs

  11. Use of the interRAI CHESS scale to predict mortality among persons with neurological conditions in three care settings.

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    John P Hirdes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Persons with certain neurological conditions have higher mortality rates than the population without neurological conditions, but the risk factors for increased mortality within diagnostic groups are less well understood. The interRAI CHESS scale has been shown to be a strong predictor of mortality in the overall population of persons receiving health care in community and institutional settings. This study examines the performance of CHESS as a predictor of mortality among persons with 11 different neurological conditions. METHODS: Survival analyses were done with interRAI assessments linked to mortality data among persons in home care (n = 359,940, complex continuing care hospitals/units (n = 88,721, and nursing homes (n = 185,309 in seven Canadian provinces/territories. RESULTS: CHESS was a significant predictor of mortality in all 3 care settings for the 11 neurological diagnostic groups considered after adjusting for age and sex. The distribution of CHESS scores varied between diagnostic groups and within diagnostic groups in different care settings. CONCLUSIONS: CHESS is a valid predictor of mortality in neurological populations in community and institutional care. It may prove useful for several clinical, administrative, policy-development, evaluation and research purposes. Because it is routinely gathered as part of normal clinical practice in jurisdictions (like Canada that have implemented interRAI assessment instruments, CHESS can be derived without additional need for data collection.

  12. BISAP SCORE: A SIMPLE TOOL TO ASSESS THE SEVERITY AND PREDICT THE MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IN ACUTE PANCREATITIS

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    Hariprasad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available NEED FOR STUDY The present study is to use a simple bedside tool as a scoring system to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis and to predict its risks for morbidity and mortality. The main criteria of this study is to highlight the ease of using this tool to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis as early as possible in order to reduce the complications, risks and to improve the outcome and overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS Our study is a single centre, prospective observational study conducted at Rajarajeshwari Medical College Hospital, Bangalore, India from September 2014 to September 2015. Forty six patients, both males and females presenting within 24 hours of onset of symptoms diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Informed consents were obtained from all patients. Cases of chronic pancreatitis and acute on chronic pancreatitis were excluded. Pediatric patients of age less than 14 years and geriatric patients more than 70 years were excluded. RESULTS We observed that biliary pancreatitis was the most common with male population more affected than females. Pain abdomen was the most common presentation in the entire study population. Necrotizing pancreatitis was most commonly associated with ICU admission and prolonged hospital stay. Patients with organ failure and BISAP score more than 3 were found to have prolonged hospital stay. SIRS was the most common component of BISAP scoring system seen in 91.3%. Elderly patients with age more than 60 years (6 pts. had high BISAP score (5. All patients with shock had BISAP score of >3. A BISAP score of ≥3 was associated with higher morbidity than scores of <3. CONCLUSION BISAP is a simple and a quick tool over other scoring systems and is similar to other scoring systems to predict the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. In summary we have studied the ease of BISAP scoring system and its advantage in early recognition of acute pancreatitis, thus taking

  13. The expressions of calprotectin in inflammatory diseases and its clinical significance%钙卫蛋白在炎性疾病中的表达及临床意义

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王旭; 黄立锋

    2015-01-01

    Inflammatory disease is common and its diagnosis is important.Calprotectin,a calcium-zinc binding protein secreted by neutrophils,is closely related to the inflammatory response.With the development of medicine,detecting calprotectin,as a newly developing test method,has been more and more valued in recent years.There have been many studies about the applications of calprotaction in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD),hepatopathy,autoimmune disease and other inflammatory diseases.These studies have shown that calprotectin is associated with the severity of these diseases,and it can be used to predict the prognosis and relapse of these diseases.%炎性疾病作为临床常见病种,关于其诊断和治疗已成为医学研究中的一项重要任务.钙卫蛋白是一种由中性粒细胞所分泌,与炎症反应紧密相关的钙锌结合蛋白.随着近年来医学的发展,钙卫蛋白作为一种新的检测手段越来越受到重视.国内外已有较多有关钙卫蛋白与炎症性肠病、肝病、自身免疫病等炎性疾病关系的报道.研究表明,钙卫蛋白与上述疾病的严重程度明显相关,并可用来预测此类疾病的预后及复发情况.

  14. Endoluminal calprotectin measurement in assessment of pouchitis and a new index of disease activity: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pronio, Annamaria; Di Filippo, Annalisa R; Mariani, Paola; Vestri, Annarita; Montesani, Chiara; Boirivant, Monica

    2016-04-01

    Pouchitis is the most common complication following proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis for ulcerative colitis (UC). To provide a standardized definition of pouchitis clinical, endoscopic and histological markers were grouped and weighted in the pouch disease activity index (PDAI). However, the delay in the assessment of the final score due to the time requested for histological analysis remains the main obstacle to the index implementation in clinical practice so that the use of modified-PDAI (mPDAI) with exclusion of histologic subscore has been proposed. We tested the ability of calprotectin measurement in the pouch endoluminal content to mimic the histologic score as defined in the PDAI, the index that we adopted as gold standard for pouchitis diagnosis. Calprotectin was measured by ELISA in the pouch endoluminal content collected during endoscopy in 40 consecutive patients with J-pouch. In each patient PDAI and mPDAI were calculated and 15% of patients were erroneously classified by mPDAI. ROC analysis of calprotectin values vs. acute histological subscore ≥ 3 identified different calprotectin cut-off values with corresponding sensitivity and specificity allowing the definition and scoring of different range of calprotectin subscores. We incorporated the calprotectin score in the mPDAI obtaining a new score that shows the same specificity as PDAI for diagnosis of pouchitis and higher sensitivity when compared with mPDAI. The use of the proposed new score, once validated in a larger series of patients, might be useful in the early management of patients with symptoms of pouchitis.

  15. Endoluminal calprotectin measurement in assessment of pouchitis and a new index of disease activity: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annamaria Pronio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pouchitis is the most common complication following proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis for ulcerative colitis (UC. To provide a standardized definition of pouchitis clinical, endoscopic and histological markers were grouped and weighted in the pouch disease activity index (PDAI. However, the delay in the assessment of the final score due to the time requested for histological analysis remains the main obstacle to the index implementation in clinical practice so that the use of modified-PDAI (mPDAI with exclusion of histologic subscore has been proposed. We tested the ability of calprotectin measurement in the pouch endoluminal content to mimic the histologic score as defined in the PDAI, the index that we adopted as gold standard for pouchitis diagnosis. Calprotectin was measured by ELISA in the pouch endoluminal content collected during endoscopy in 40 consecutive patients with J-pouch. In each patient PDAI and mPDAI were calculated and 15% of patients were erroneously classified by mPDAI. ROC analysis of calprotectin values vs. acute histological subscore ≥ 3 identified different calprotectin cut-off values with corresponding sensitivity and specificity allowing the definition and scoring of different range of calprotectin subscores. We incorporated the calprotectin score in the mPDAI obtaining a new score that shows the same specificity as PDAI for diagnosis of pouchitis and higher sensitivity when compared with mPDAI. The use of the proposed new score, once validated in a larger series of patients, might be useful in the early management of patients with symptoms of pouchitis.

  16. Joint predictability of health related quality of life and leisure time physical activity on mortality risk in people with diabetes

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    Li Chia-Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reduced health related quality of life (HRQOL has been associated with increased mortality in individuals with diabetes. In contrast, increased leisure time physical activity (LTPA has been associated with reduced mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined relationship of HRQOL and LTPA on mortality and whether high levels of LTPA are associated with reduced risk of mortality in adults with diabetes and inferior HRQOL. Methods We analyzed data from a national sample of adults (18 years or older with self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes, who participated in the 2001 National Health Interview Survey in Taiwan (N = 797. A total of 701 participants had complete Short Form 36 (SF-36 and LTPA data and were followed from 2002 to 2008. Participants were divided into 3 groups based on their LTPA: (1 a regularly active group who reported 150 or more min/week of moderate-intensity activity; (2 an intermediately active group who reported engaging in LTPA but did not meet the criterion for the “regular” category; and (3 an inactive group who reported no LTPA. The physical component summary (PCS and mental component summary (MCS scores were dichotomised at the median (high vs. low (PCS = 45.11; MCS = 47.91. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and mortality. Results After 4,570 person-years of follow-up, 121 deaths were recorded and the crude mortality rate was 26.5 per 1,000 person-years. Both PCS scores and LTPA were significant predictors of mortality, whereas no significant relationship was observed between MCS and mortality. After adjustment for other factors, participants with low PCS who reported no LTPA had a hazard ratio (HR for mortality of 4.49 (95% CI = [2.15-9.36]. However, participants with low PCS who were active (including intermediate and regular LTPA had a HR for mortality of 1.36 (95% CI = [0

  17. Serum phosphate predicts early mortality in adults starting antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia: a prospective cohort study.

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    Douglas C Heimburger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of mortality in the initial weeks of treatment. We assessed the association of serum phosphate with early mortality among HIV-infected adults with severe malnutrition and/or advanced immunosuppression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An observational cohort of 142 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia with body mass index (BMI <16 kg/m(2 or CD4(+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/microL, or both, was followed prospectively during the first 12 weeks of ART. Detailed health and dietary intake history, review of systems, physical examination, serum metabolic panel including phosphate, and serum ferritin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were monitored. The primary outcome was mortality. Baseline serum phosphate was a significant predictor of mortality; participants alive at 12 weeks had a median value of 1.30 mmol/L (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.04, 1.43, compared to 1.06 mmol/L (IQR: 0.89, 1.27 among those who died (p<0.01. Each 0.1 mmol/L increase in baseline phosphate was associated with an incremental decrease in mortality (AHR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.95. The association was independent of other metabolic parameters and known risk factors for early ART-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. While participant attrition represented a limitation, it was consistent with local program experience. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low serum phosphate at ART initiation was an independent predictor of early mortality among HIV patients starting ART with severe malnutrition or advanced immunosuppression. This may represent a physiologic phenomenon similar to refeeding syndrome, and may lead to therapeutic interventions that could reduce mortality.

  18. Level of Fecal Calprotectin Correlates With Endoscopic and Histologic Inflammation and Identifies Patients With Mucosal Healing in Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Theede, Klaus; Holck, Susanne; Ibsen, Per

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), mucosal healing is an important goal of treatment. However, mucosal healing is difficult to determine on the basis of clinical evaluation alone, and endoscopy is uncomfortable and can cause complications. Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a ma......BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), mucosal healing is an important goal of treatment. However, mucosal healing is difficult to determine on the basis of clinical evaluation alone, and endoscopy is uncomfortable and can cause complications. Fecal calprotectin (FC...

  19. Oxidation of calprotectin by hypochlorous acid prevents chelation of essential metal ions and allows bacterial growth: Relevance to infections in cystic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magon, Nicholas J; Turner, Rufus; Gearry, Richard B; Hampton, Mark B; Sly, Peter D; Kettle, Anthony J

    2015-09-01

    Calprotectin provides nutritional immunity by sequestering manganese and zinc ions. It is abundant in the lungs of patients with cystic fibrosis but fails to prevent their recurrent infections. Calprotectin is a major protein of neutrophils and composed of two monomers, S100A8 and S100A9. We show that the ability of calprotectin to limit growth of Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa is exquisitely sensitive to oxidation by hypochlorous acid. The N-terminal cysteine residue on S100A9 was highly susceptible to oxidation which resulted in cross-linking of the protein monomers. The N-terminal methionine of S100A8 was also readily oxidized by hypochlorous acid, forming both the methionine sulfoxide and the unique product dehydromethionine. Isolated human neutrophils formed these modifications on calprotectin when their myeloperoxidase generated hypochlorous acid. Up to 90% of the N-terminal amine on S100A8 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from young children with cystic fibrosis was oxidized. Oxidized calprotectin was higher in children with cystic fibrosis compared to disease controls, and further elevated in those patients with infections. Our data suggest that oxidative stress associated with inflammation in cystic fibrosis will stop metal sequestration by calprotectin. Consequently, strategies aimed at blocking extracellular myeloperoxidase activity should enable calprotectin to provide nutritional immunity within the airways.

  20. Zinc and Manganese Chelation by Neutrophil S100A8/A9 (Calprotectin) Limits Extracellular Aspergillus fumigatus Hyphal Growth and Corneal Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Heather L.; Jhingran, Anupam; Sun, Yan; Vareechon, Chairut; Carrion, Steven de Jesus; Skaar, Eric P.; Chazin, Walter J.; Calera, Jose Antonio; Hohl, Tobias M.; Pearlman, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Calprotectin, a heterodimer of S100A8 and S100A9, is an abundant neutrophil protein which possesses anti-microbial activity primarily due to its ability to chelate zinc and manganese. In the current study, we showed that neutrophils from calprotectin-deficient S100A9 −/− mice have an impaired ability to inhibit Aspergillus fumigatus hyphal growth in vitro, and in infected corneas in a murine model of fungal keratitis; however, the ability to inhibit hyphal growth was restored in S100A9−/− mice by injecting recombinant calprotectin. Further, using recombinant calprotectin with mutations in either the Zn and Mn binding sites or the Mn binding site alone, we show that both zinc and manganese binding are necessary for calprotectin’s anti-hyphal activity. In contrast to hyphae, we found no role for neutrophil calprotectin in uptake or killing of intracellular A. fumigatus conidia either in vitro, or in a murine model of pulmonary aspergillosis. We also found that an A. fumigatus ΔzafA mutant, which demonstrates deficient zinc transport, exhibits impaired growth in infected corneas and following incubation with neutrophils or calprotectin in vitro as compared to wild-type. Collectively, these studies demonstrate a novel stage - specific susceptibility of A. fumigatus to zinc and manganese chelation by neutrophil-derived calprotectin. PMID:26582948

  1. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  2. The performance of customised APACHE II and SAPS II in predicting mortality of mixed critically ill patients in a Thai medical intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khwannimit, B; Bhurayanontachai, R

    2009-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of customised Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation HII (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score HII (SAPS II) in predicting hospital mortality of mixed critically ill Thai patients in a medical intensive care unit. A prospective cohort study was conducted over a four-year period. The subjects were randomly divided into calibration and validation groups. Logistic regression analysis was used for customisation. The performance of the scores was evaluated by the discrimination, calibration and overall fit in the overall group and across subgroups in the validation group. Two thousand and forty consecutive intensive care unit admissions during the study period were split into two groups. Both customised models showed excellent discrimination. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the customised APACHE II was greater than the customised SAPS II (0.925 and 0.892, P APACHE II in overall populations and various subgroups but insufficient calibration for the customised SAPS II. The customised SAPS II showed good calibration in only the younger, postoperative and sepsis patients subgroups. The overall performance of the customised APACHE II was better than the customised SAPS II (Brier score 0.089 and 0.109, respectively). Our results indicate that the customised APACHE II shows better performance than the customised SAPS II in predicting hospital mortality and could be used to predict mortality and quality assessment in our unit or other intensive care units with a similar case mix.

  3. Low Recent Protein Intake Predicts Cancer-Related Fatigue and Increased Mortality in Patients with Advanced Tumor Disease Undergoing Chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stobäus, Nicole; Müller, Manfred J; Küpferling, Susanne; Schulzke, Jörg-Dieter; Norman, Kristina

    2015-01-01

    Cancer patients, in general, suffer from anorexia hence diminished nutritional intake. In a prospective observational study, we investigated the impact of recent energy and protein intake on cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality in patients undergoing chemotherapy. Recent protein and energy intake was assessed by 24-h recall in 285 patients. Cancer-related fatigue was determined by Brief Fatigue Inventory, and fat free mass index (FFMI) was assessed with bioelectrical impedance analysis. Symptoms with the validated German version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (30 questions) and 6-month mortality was documented. Risk factors of cancer-related fatigue and predictors of mortality were investigated with logistic regression analysis and stepwise Cox regression analysis, respectively. Low protein intake (protein intake emerged as the strongest contributor to cancer-related fatigue followed by nausea/vomiting, insomnia, and age. Reduced protein intake, male sex, number of comorbidities, and FFMI were identified as significant predictors for increased 6-month mortality. In conclusion, a low recent protein intake assessed by 24-h recall is associated with a more than twofold higher risk of cancer-related fatigue and 6-month mortality. Every effort should be taken to assess and guarantee proper nutritional intake in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

  4. Calcium ion gradients modulate the zinc affinity and antibacterial activity of human calprotectin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brophy, Megan Brunjes; Hayden, Joshua A; Nolan, Elizabeth M

    2012-10-31

    Calprotectin (CP) is an antimicrobial protein produced and released by neutrophils that inhibits the growth of pathogenic microorganisms by sequestering essential metal nutrients in the extracellular space. In this work, spectroscopic and thermodynamic metal-binding studies are presented to delineate the zinc-binding properties of CP. Unique optical absorption and EPR spectroscopic signatures for the interfacial His(3)Asp and His(4) sites of human calprotectin are identified by using Co(II) as a spectroscopic probe. Zinc competition titrations employing chromophoric Zn(II) indicators provide a 2:1 Zn(II):CP stoichiometry, confirm that the His(3)Asp and His(4) sites of CP coordinate Zn(II), and reveal that the Zn(II) affinity of both sites is calcium-dependent. The calcium-insensitive Zn(II) competitor ZP4 affords dissociation constants of K(d1) = 133 ± 58 pM and K(d2) = 185 ± 219 nM for CP in the absence of Ca(II). These values decrease to K(d1) ≤ 10 pM and K(d2) ≤ 240 pM in the presence of excess Ca(II). The K(d1) and K(d2) values are assigned to the His(3)Asp and His(4) sites, respectively. In vitro antibacterial activity assays indicate that the metal-binding sites and Ca(II)-replete conditions are required for CP to inhibit the growth of both Gram-negative and -positive bacteria. Taken together, these data provide a working model whereby calprotectin responds to physiological Ca(II) gradients to become a potent Zn(II) chelator in the extracellular space.

  5. Soluble CD40 ligand is elevated in type 1 diabetic nephropathy but not predictive of mortality, cardiovascular events or kidney function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer, Maria; Tarnow, Inge; Michelson, Alan D; Jorsal, Anders; Frelinger, Andrew L; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Rossing, Peter; Tarnow, Lise

    2010-01-01

    Soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) derived from platelets mediates atherothrombosis, leading to proinflammatory and proatherosclerotic responses. We investigated the predictive value of plasma sCD40L for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, progression towards end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and rate of decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) and nephropathy. The study was a prospective, observational follow-up study of 443 T1DM patients with diabetic nephropathy (274 men; age 42.1 ± 10.5 years [mean ± SD], duration of diabetes 28.3 ± 8.9 years, GFR 76 ± 33 ml/min/1.73 m2) and a control group of 421 patients with longstanding type 1 diabetes and persistent normoalbuminuria (232 men; age 45.4 ± 11.5 years, duration of diabetes 27.7 ± 10.1 years) at baseline. sCD40L was measured by ELISA. Plasma sCD40L levels were higher in patients with diabetic nephropathy compared to normoalbuminuric patients (median (range) 1.54 (0.02-13.38) vs. 1.30 (0.04-20.65) µg/L, respectively p = 0.004). The patients were followed for 8.1 (0.0-12.9) years (median (range)). Among normoalbuminuric patients, sCD40L levels did not predict all-cause mortality (p = 0.33) or combined fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) (p = 0.27). Similarly, among patients with diabetic nephropathy, the covariate adjusted sCD40L levels did not predict all-cause mortality (p = 0.86) or risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD (p = 0.08). Furthermore, high levels of sCD40L did not predict development of ESRD (p = 0.85) nor rate of decline in GFR (p = 0.69). Plasma sCD40L is elevated in T1DM nephropathy but is not a predictor of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity or deterioration of kidney function

  6. Long Pentraxin 3 as a Predictive Marker of Mortality in Severe Septic Patients Who Received Successful Early Goal-Directed Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Lee, Kyoung Hwa; Lee, Ji Un; Ann, Hea Won; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeon, Yong Duk; Kim, Jung Ho; Ku, Nam Su; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, June Myung

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Pentraxin 3 (PTX3) has been suggested to be a prognostic marker of mortality in severe sepsis. Currently, there are limited data on biomarkers including PTX3 that can be used to predict mortality in severe sepsis patients who have undergone successful initial resuscitation through early goal-directed therapy (EGDT). Materials and Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted among 83 severe sepsis patients with fulfillment of all EGDT components and the achievement of final goal. Plasma PTX3 levels were measured by sandwich ELISA on hospital day (HD) 0, 3, and 7. The data for procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and delta neutrophil index were collected by electric medical record. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Results 28-day all-cause mortality was 19.3% and the median (interquartile range) APHCH II score of total patients was 16 (13–19). The non-survivors (n=16) had significantly higher PTX3 level at HD 0 [201.4 (56.9–268.6) ng/mL vs. 36.5 (13.7–145.3) ng/mL, p=0.008]. PTX3 had largest AUCROC value for the prediction of mortality among PTX3, procalcitonin, delta neutrophil index, CRP and APACHE II/SOFA sore at HD 0 [0.819, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.677–0.961, p=0.008]. The most valid cut-off level of PTX3 at HD 0 was 140.28 ng/mL (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 73.8%). The PTX3 and procalcitonin at HD 0 showed strong correlation (r=0.675, p<0.001). However, PTX3 at HD 0 was the only independent predictive marker in Cox's proportional hazards model (≥140 ng/mL; hazard rate 7.16, 95% CI 2.46–15.85, p=0.001). Conclusion PTX3 at HD 0 could be a powerful predictive biomarker of 28-day all-cause mortality in severe septic patients who have undergone successful EGDT. PMID:28120568

  7. Phenomenological theory of mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azbel, Mark Ya.

    1997-09-01

    Extensive demographic studies relate aging to the increase in mortality, terminated by the species-specific lifespan limit. Meanwhile, recent experiments demonstrate that medfly mortality decreases at older ages, and challenge a limited lifespan paradigm. This paper proves that there exists a genetically programmed probability to die at any given age, and presents its phenomenological theory. The implications of the universal mortality law crucially depend on the cohort heterogeneity. For relatively high heterogeneity the law predicts unitarily vanishing old age mortality; this is verified with medfly data. For relatively low heterogeneity it predicts a precipitous drop in mortality fluctuations in old age. This is verified with demographic data. If comprehensive studies verify a species-specific characteristic age, then that age may be genetically manipulated. If the studies verify a unitary law of mortality, the results may be generalized to all species. A phenomenological model of mortality is presented.

  8. Circulating TNF Receptors 1 and 2 Predict Mortality in Patients with End-stage Renal Disease Undergoing Dialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohda, Tomohito; Maruyama, Shuntaro; Kamei, Nozomu; Yamaguchi, Saori; Shibata, Terumi; Murakoshi, Maki; Horikoshi, Satoshi; Tomino, Yasuhiko; Ohsawa, Isao; Gotoh, Hiromichi; Nojiri, Shuko; Suzuki, Yusuke

    2017-01-01

    Relatively high circulating levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptors (TNFRs: TNFR1, TNFR2) have been associated with not only progression to end-stage renal disease but also mortality in patients with diabetes. It remains unknown whether elevated TNFR levels in haemodialysis patients are associated with mortality. We studied 319 patients receiving maintenance haemodialysis who were followed for a median of 53 months. Circulating markers of TNF pathway (TNFα and TNFRs) were measured with immunoassay. Strong positive correlations between TNFR1 and TNFR2 were observed (r = 0.81, P risk of cardiovascular and/or all-cause mortality independent of all relevant covariates in patients undergoing haemodialysis. PMID:28256549

  9. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads; Ganz, Melanie; Lauze, Francois Bernard;

    2011-01-01

    Calcification Distribution (MACD) index. The hazard ratio for mortality was calculated for the MACD and for three other commonly used predictors: the EU SCORE card, the Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score (Framingham score), and the gold standard Aortic Calcification Severity score (AC24) developed...... from the Framingham Heart Study cohorts. Results All four scoring systems showed increasing age, smoking, and raised triglyceride levels were the main predictors of mortality after adjustment for all other metabolic and physical parameters. The SCORE card and the Framingham score resulted...... and size of calcified lesions. The MACD index may provide a more sensitive predictor of mortality from aortic calcification than the commonly used AC24 and SCORE/Framingham point card systems....

  10. Does sickness absence due to psychiatric disorder predict cause-specific mortality? A 16-year follow-up of the GAZEL occupational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchior, Maria; Ferrie, Jane E; Alexanderson, Kristina; Goldberg, Marcel; Kivimaki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerlund, Hugo; Zins, Marie; Head, Jenny

    2010-09-15

    Mental disorders are a frequent cause of morbidity and sickness absence in working populations; however, the status of psychiatric sickness absence as a predictor of mortality is not established. The authors tested the hypothesis that psychiatric sickness absence predicts mortality from leading medical causes. Data were derived from the French GAZEL cohort study (n = 19,962). Physician-certified sickness absence records were extracted from administrative files (1990-1992) and were linked to mortality data from France's national registry of mortality (1993-2008, mean follow-up: 15.5 years). Analyses were conducted by using Cox regression models. Compared with workers with no sickness absence, those absent due to psychiatric disorder were at increased risk of cause-specific mortality (hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age, gender, occupational grade, other sickness absence-suicide: 6.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.07, 11.75; cardiovascular disease: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.08; and smoking-related cancer: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.53). After full adjustment, the excess risk of suicide remained significant (HR = 5.13, 95% CI: 2.60, 10.13) but failed to reach statistical significance for fatal cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 0.95, 2.66) and smoking-related cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 0.85, 2.03). Psychiatric sickness absence records could help identify individuals at risk of premature mortality and serve to monitor workers' health.

  11. FECAL CALPROTECTIN AS A MARKER OF INFLAMMATION IN THE COLON AT DIFFERENT VARIANTS OF CLOSTRIDIUM DIFFICILE-INFECTIONS COURSE IN CHILDREN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Mazankova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses possible application of determination of the fecal calprotectin level in children with antibiotic-associated diarrhea caused by Clostridium difficile — infection to detect inflammation in various parts of the gastrointestinal tract. It is shown that calprotectin is an informative non-invasive method that can estimate the degree of inflammatory changes of the intestinal mucosa in patients with different clinical variants of Clostridium difficile — infection. The highest levels of fecal calprotectin are characteristic of hemorrhagic colitis caused by this microorganism. 

  12. Development of a daily mortality probability prediction model from Intensive Care Unit patients using a discrete-time event history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying Che; Chang, Kuang Yi; Lin, Shih Pin; Chen, Kung; Chan, Kwok Hon; Chang, Polun

    2013-08-01

    As studies have pointed out, severity scores are imperfect at predicting individual clinical chance of survival. The clinical condition and pathophysiological status of these patients in the Intensive Care Unit might differ from or be more complicated than most predictive models account for. In addition, as the pathophysiological status changes over time, the likelihood of survival day by day will vary. Actually, it would decrease over time and a single prediction value cannot address this truth. Clearly, alternative models and refinements are warranted. In this study, we used discrete-time-event models with the changes of clinical variables, including blood cell counts, to predict daily probability of mortality in individual patients from day 3 to day 28 post Intensive Care Unit admission. Both models we built exhibited good discrimination in the training (overall area under ROC curve: 0.80 and 0.79, respectively) and validation cohorts (overall area under ROC curve: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) to predict daily ICU mortality. The paper describes the methodology, the development process and the content of the models, and discusses the possibility of them to serve as the foundation of a new bedside advisory or alarm system.

  13. Predictive value of plasma copeptin level for the risk and mortality of heart failure: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Jian-Jun; Lu, Ying; Kuai, Zheng-Ping; Yong, Yong-Hong

    2017-02-28

    Epidemiologic studies are inconsistent regarding the association between plasma copeptin level and heart failure (HF). The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to determine whether high level of copeptin is correlated with incidence of HF and mortality in patients with HF. We searched PUBMED and EMBASE databases for studies conducted from 1966 through May 2016 to identify studies reporting hazard ratio (HR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between plasma copeptin level and HF. A random-effects model was used to combine study-specific risk estimates. A total of 13 studies were included in the meta-analysis, with five studies on the incidence of HF and eight studies on the mortality of patients with HF. For incidence of HF, the summary HR indicated a borderline positive association of high plasma copeptin level with HF risk (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.90-2.85). Furthermore, an increase of 1 standard deviation in log copeptin level was associated with a 17% increase in the risk of incident HF (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.33). For all-cause mortality of patients with HF, we also found a significant association between elevated plasma copeptin level and increased mortality of HF (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.33-2.33). Our dose-response analysis indicated that an increment in copeptin level of 1 pmol/l was associated with a 3% increase in all-cause mortality (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05). In conclusion, our results suggest that elevated plasma copeptin level is associated with an increased risk of HF and all-cause mortality in patients with HF.

  14. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation.

  15. A comparison of Child-Pugh, APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanos John

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of Child-Pugh and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting short-term, hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods 200 admissions of 147 cirrhotic patients (44% viral-associated liver cirrhosis, 33% alcoholic, 18.5% cryptogenic, 4.5% both viral and alcoholic were studied prospectively. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores were recorded on day 1 for all patients. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC. Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results Overall mortality was 11.5%. The mean Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than those of nonsurvivors. Discrimination was excellent for Child-Pugh (ROC AUC: 0.859 and APACHE III (ROC AUC: 0.816 scores, and acceptable for APACHE II score (ROC AUC: 0.759. Although the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic revealed adequate goodness-of-fit for Child-Pugh score (P = 0.192, this was not the case for APACHE II and III scores (P = 0.004 and 0.003 respectively Conclusion Our results indicate that, of the three models, Child-Pugh score had the least statistically significant discrepancy between predicted and observed mortality across the strata of increasing predicting mortality. This supports the hypothesis that APACHE scores do not work accurately outside ICU settings.

  16. Efficacy of the APACHE II score at ICU discharge in predicting post-ICU mortality and ICU readmission in critically ill surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H; Lim, C W; Hong, H P; Ju, J W; Jeon, Y T; Hwang, J W; Park, H P

    2015-03-01

    In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of the discharge Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score in predicting post-intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and ICU readmission during the same hospitalisation in a surgical ICU. Of 1190 patients who were admitted to the ICU and stayed >48 hours between October 2007 and March 2010, 23 (1.9%) died and 86 (7.2%) were readmitted after initial ICU discharge, with 26 (3.0%) admitted within 48 hours. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the discharge and admission APACHE II scores in predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.631 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.603 to 0.658) and 0.669 (95% CI 0.642 to 0.696), respectively (P=0.510). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of discharge and admission APACHE II scores for predicting all forms of readmission was 0.606 (95% CI 0.578 to 0.634) and 0.574 (95% CI 0.545 to 0.602), respectively (P=0.316). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of discharge APACHE II score in predicting early ICU readmissions was, however, higher than that of admission APACHE II score (0.688 [95% CI 0.660 to 0.714] versus 0.505 [95% CI 0.476 to 0.534], P=0.001). The discharge APACHE II score (odds ratio [OR] 1.1, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.22, P=0.024), unplanned ICU readmission (OR 20.0, 95% CI 7.6 to 53.1, P=0.001), eosinopenia at ICU discharge (OR 6.0, 95% CI 1.34 to 26.9, P=0.019), and hospital length-of-stay before ICU admission (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03, P=0.021) were significant independent factors in predicting post-ICU mortality. This study suggests that the discharge APACHE II score may be useful in predicting post-ICU mortality and is superior to the admission APACHE II score in predicting early ICU readmission in surgical ICU patients.

  17. External Validation of the Simple Clinical Score and the HOTEL Score, Two Scores for Predicting Short-Term Mortality after Admission to an Acute Medical Unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

    2014-01-01

    with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. METHODS: Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Danish 460.......932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95......% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. CONCLUSION: We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision....

  18. Comparing the predictive accuracy of frailty, comorbidity, and disability for mortality: a 1-year follow-up in patients hospitalized in geriatric wards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritt, Martin; Ritt, Julia Isabel; Sieber, Cornel Christian; Gaßmann, Karl-Günter

    2017-01-01

    Background Studies evaluating and comparing the power of frailty, comorbidity, and disability instruments, together and in parallel, for predicting mortality are limited. Objective This study aimed to evaluate and compare the measures of frailty, comorbidity, and disability in predicting 1-year mortality in geriatric inpatients. Design Prospective cohort study. Patients and setting A total of 307 inpatients aged ≥65 years in geriatric wards of a general hospital participated in the study. Measurements The patients were evaluated in relation to different frailty, comorbidity, and disability instruments during their hospital stays. These included three frailty (the seven-category Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS-7], a 41-item frailty index [FI], and the FRAIL scale), two comorbidity (the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics [CIRS-G] and the comorbidity domain of the FI [Comorbidity-D-FI]), and two disability instruments (disability in basic activities of daily living [ADL-Katz] and the instrumental and basic activities of daily living domains of the FI [IADL/ADL-D-FI]). The patients were followed-up over 1 year. Results Using FI, CIRS-G, Comorbidity-D-FI, and ADL-Katz, this study identified a patient group with a high (≥50%) 1-year mortality rate in all of the patients and the two patient subgroups (ie, patients aged 65–82 years and ≥83 years). The CFS-7, FI, FRAIL scale, CIRS-G, Comorbidity-D-FI, and IADL/ADL-D-FI (analyzed as full scales) revealed useful discriminative accuracy for 1-year mortality (ie, an area under the curve >0.7) in all the patients and the two patient subgroups (all P<0.001). Thereby, CFS-7 (in all patients and the two patient subgroups) and FI (in the subgroup of patients aged ≥83 years) showed greater discriminative accuracy for 1-year mortality compared to other instruments (all P<0.05). Conclusion All the different instruments emerged as suitable tools for risk stratification in geriatric inpatients. Among them, CFS-7, and in

  19. Comparison of the predictive performance of eGFR formulae for mortality and graft failure in renal transplant recipients.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    He, Xiang

    2009-02-15

    To date, efforts have focused on assessing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) formulae against measured GFR. However, a more appropriate clinical gold standard is one conveying a defined clinical disadvantage. In renal transplantation, these measures are mortality and graft failure.

  20. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Nielsen (Mads); M. Ganz (Melanie); F. Lauze (Francois); P.C. Pettersen; M. de Bruijne (Marleen); T.B. Clarkson (Thomas); E.B. Dam (Erik); C. Christiansen (Claus); M.A. Karsdal (Morten)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for death from cardiovascular disease. We investigated the relationship between mortality and the composite markers of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta.Methods: 308 postmenopausal wo

  1. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  2. In Italy, North-South Differences in IQ Predict Differences in Income, Education, Infant Mortality, Stature, and Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Regional differences in IQ are presented for 12 regions of Italy showing that IQs are highest in the north and lowest in the south. Regional IQs obtained in 2006 are highly correlated with average incomes at r = 0.937, and with stature, infant mortality, literacy and education. The lower IQ in southern Italy may be attributable to genetic…

  3. The additional value of patient-reported health status in predicting 1-year mortality after invasive coronary procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzen, Mattie J; Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Pedersen, Susanne S.

    2007-01-01

    Self-perceived health status may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. The Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization (EHS-CR) provided an opportunity to explore whether impaired health status was a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with coronary arter...

  4. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads; Ganz, Melanie; Lauze, Francois Bernard

    2010-01-01

    Calcification Distribution (MACD) index. The hazard ratio for mortality was calculated for the MACD and for three other commonly used predictors: the EU SCORE card, the Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score (Framingham score), and the gold standard Aortic Calcification Severity score (AC24) developed...

  5. A simple novel measure of passive transfer of maternal immunoglobulin is predictive of preweaning mortality in piglets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preweaning mortality of piglets represents a significant loss to swine producers. Two factors that contribute to this loss are the timely initiation of lactation by the sow, and the ability of individual piglets to nurse successfully within hours of birth. However, the contribution of these factors ...

  6. Evaluation of point-of-care test calprotectin and lactoferrin for inflammatory bowel disease among children with chronic gastrointestinal symptoms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtman, Gea A; Lisman-van Leeuwen, Yvonne; van Rheenen, Patrick F; Kollen, Boudewijn J; Escher, Johanna C; Kindermann, Angelika; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Berger, Marjolein Y

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Faecal calprotectin is considered to be a valid test for ruling out inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in children with chronic gastrointestinal symptoms in specialist care. In contrast, faecal lactoferrin has higher specificity. The recent availability of both as point-of-care tests (POCT

  7. Two meals with different carbohydrate, fat and protein contents render equivalent postprandial plasma levels of calprotectin, cortisol, triglycerides and zonulin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlsson, Bodil; Darwiche, Gassan; Roth, Bodil; Höglund, Peter

    2016-11-01

    The aim was to compare postprandial plasma levels of calprotectin, cortisol, triglycerides and zonulin between a control breakfast and a moderately low-carbohydrate test breakfast, given randomly after 10-h fast. Blood samples were collected before and repeatedly after the meal. Plasma calprotectin, cortisol, triglycerides and zonulin were analyzed. The total area under the curve (tAUC) and change in AUC from baseline (dAUC) were calculated. Ratios between the test and control values were calculated to investigate equivalence. Healthy volunteers (8 men and 12 women; 46.0 ± 14.5 years) were included. tAUCs of cortisol and triglycerides did not differ between the breakfasts (p = 0.158 versus p = 0.579). Cortisol dAUCs were decreased and triglyceride dAUCs were increased after both breakfasts, with no differences between the breakfasts (p = 0.933 versus p = 0.277). Calprotectin and zonulin levels were unaffected. The meals were bioequivalent for cortisol, triglycerides and zonulin, but not for calprotectin.

  8. Utility of fecal calprotectin in differentiating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) from recurrent abdominal pain (RAP) in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: It often is difficult to differentiate IBD from RAP in children. Fecal calprotectin concentration has been proposed as a marker to identify gastrointestinal inflammation and it may be useful in distinguishing organic disease (i.e., IBD) from normals. However, there are scant data regardi...

  9. Predictive Factors of One-Year Mortality in a Cohort of Patients Undergoing Urgent-Start Hemodialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magalhães, Luciene P.; dos Reis, Luciene M.; Graciolli, Fabiana G.; Pereira, Benedito J.; de Oliveira, Rodrigo B.; de Souza, Altay A. L.; Moyses, Rosa M.; Elias, Rosilene M.; Jorgetti, Vanda

    2017-01-01

    Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects 10–15% of adult population worldwide. Incident patients on hemodialysis, mainly those on urgent-start dialysis at the emergency room, have a high mortality risk, which may reflect the absence of nephrology care. A lack of data exists regarding the influence of baseline factors on the mortality of these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical and laboratory characteristics of this population and identify risk factors that contribute to their mortality. Patients and methods We studied 424 patients who were admitted to our service between 01/2006 and 12/2012 and were followed for 1 year. We analyzed vascular access, risk factors linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mineral and bone disease associated with CKD (CKD-MBD), and clinical events that occurred during the follow-up period. Factors that influenced patient survival were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Results The patient mean age was 50 ± 18 years, and 58.7% of them were male. Hypertension was the main cause of primary CKD (31.8%). Major risk factors were smoking (19.6%), dyslipidemia (48.8%), and CVD (41%). Upon admission, most patients had no vascular access for hemodialysis (89.4%). Biochemical results showed that most patients were anemic with high C-reactive protein levels, hypocalcemia, hyperphosphatemia, elevated parathyroid hormone and decreased 25-hydroxy vitamin D. At the end of one year, 60 patients died (14.1%). These patients were significantly older, had a lower percentage of arteriovenous fistula in one year, and low levels of 25-hydroxy vitamin D. Conclusions The combined evaluation of clinical and biochemical parameters and risk factors revealed that the mortality in urgent-start dialysis is associated with older age and low levels of vitamin D deficiency. A lack of a permanent hemodialysis access after one year was also a risk factor for mortality in this population. PMID:28045952

  10. Elevated Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate Is Predictive of Interstitial Lung Disease and Mortality in Dermatomyositis: a Korean Retrospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Dong Jin; Lee, Eun Young; Lee, Eun Bong; Song, Yeong Wook; Konig, Maximilian Ferdinand; Park, Jin Kyun

    2016-03-01

    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a major cause of death in patients with dermatomyositis (DM). This study was aimed to examine the utility of the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) as a predictor of ILD and prognostic marker of mortality in patients with DM. One hundred-and-fourteen patients with DM were examined, including 28 with clinically amyopathic DM (CADM). A diagnosis of ILD was made based on high resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans. The association between elevated ESR and pulmonary impairment and mortality was then examined. ILD was diagnosed in 53 (46.5%) of 114 DM patients. Cancer was diagnosed in 2 (3.8%) of 53 DM patients with ILD and in 24 (92.3%) of those without ILD (P < 0.001). The median ESR (50.0 mm/hour) in patients with ILD was significantly higher than that in patients without ILD (29.0 mm/hour; P < 0.001). ESR was inversely correlated with forced vital capacity (Spearman ρ = - 0.303; P = 0.007) and carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (ρ = - 0.319; P = 0.006). DM patients with baseline ESR ≥ 30 mm/hour had significantly higher mortality than those with ESR < 30 mm/hour (P = 0.002, log-rank test). Patients with a persistently high ESR despite immunosuppressive therapy was associated with higher mortality than those with a normalized ESR (P = 0.039, log-rank test). Elevated ESR is associated with increased mortality in patients with DM due to respiratory failure. Thus, monitoring ESR should be an integral part of the clinical care of DM patients.

  11. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score predicts 6.6-year overall mortality of Chinese patients with NAFLD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Yun-Hao; Guo, Jian-Chun; Lou, Guo-Qiang; Jiang, Yan-Ming; Zhuang, Zhen-Jie; Zhu, Meng-Fei; Luo, Yan; Ma, Xiao-Jie; Liu, Jing; Bian, Dong-Xue; Shi, Jun-Ping

    2014-09-01

    The non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) has emerged as a useful predictor of long-term outcome in NAFLD patients. We evaluated the predictive performance of the NFS for overall mortality in a Chinese population with NAFLD. All NAFLD patients diagnosed ultrasonographically at Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou between 1996 and 2011 were retrospectively recruited to the study. Outcome was determined by interview and causes of death were confirmed by medical records. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC ) was used to determine the predictive accuracy of the NFS, BARD (body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, diabetes) score, FIB-4 index and the AST/platelet ratio index (APRI) for mortality. Data from a total of 180 eligible patients (median age 39 years; 96 men) were analysed, with 12 deaths over a median follow-up period of 6.6 years (range 0.5-14.8 years). Using Cox model analysis, the NFS as a continuous variable was identified as the only predictor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.743, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.670-4.504). The NFS yielded the highest AUCROC of 0.828 (95% CI 0.728-0.928, P NAFLD.

  12. Validation of the Shock Index, Modified Shock Index, and Age Shock Index for Predicting Mortality of Geriatric Trauma Patients in Emergency Departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soon Yong; Hong, Ki Jeong; Shin, Sang Do; Ro, Young Sun; Ahn, Ki Ok; Kim, Yu Jin; Lee, Eui Jung

    2016-12-01

    The shock index (SI), modified shock index (MSI), and age multiplied by SI (Age SI) are used to assess the severity and predict the mortality of trauma patients, but their validity for geriatric patients is controversial. The purpose of this investigation was to assess predictive value of the SI, MSI, and Age SI for geriatric trauma patients. We used the Emergency Department-based Injury In-depth Surveillance (EDIIS), which has data from 20 EDs across Korea. Patients older than 65 years who had traumatic injuries from January 2008 to December 2013 were enrolled. We compared in-hospital and ED mortality of groups categorized as stable and unstable according to indexes. We also assessed their predictive power of each index by calculating the area under the each receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. A total of 45,880 cases were included. The percentage of cases classified as unstable was greater among non-survivors than survivors for the SI (36.6% vs. 1.8%, P < 0.001), the MSI (38.6% vs. 2.2%, P < 0.001), and the Age SI (69.4% vs. 21.3%, P < 0.001). Non-survivors had higher median values than survivors on the SI (0.84 vs. 0.57, P < 0.001), MSI (0.79 vs. 1.14, P < 0.001), and Age SI (64.0 vs. 41.5, P < 0.001). The predictive power of the Age SI for in-hospital mortality was higher than SI (AUROC: 0.740 vs. 0.674, P < 0.001) or MSI (0.682, P < 0.001) in geriatric trauma patients.

  13. Serum calprotectin, CD26 and EGF to establish a panel for the diagnosis of lung cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Blanco-Prieto

    Full Text Available Lung cancer is the most lethal neoplasia, and an early diagnosis is the best way for improving survival. Symptomatic patients attending Pulmonary Services could be diagnosed with lung cancer earlier if high-risk individuals are promptly separated from healthy individuals and patients with benign respiratory pathologies. We searched for a convenient non-invasive serum test to define which patients should have more immediate clinical tests. Six cancer-associated molecules (HB-EGF, EGF, EGFR, sCD26, VEGF, and Calprotectin were investigated in this study. Markers were measured in serum by specific ELISAs, in an unselected population that included 72 lung cancer patients of different histological types and 56 control subjects (healthy individuals and patients with benign pulmonary pathologies. Boosted regression and random forests analysis were conducted for the selection of the best candidate biomarkers. A remarkable discriminatory capacity was observed for EGF, sCD26, and especially for Calprotectin, these three molecules constituting a marker panel boasting a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 87%, resulting in an associated misclassification rate of 15%. Finally, an algorithm derived by logistic regression and a nomogram allowed generating classification scores in terms of the risk of a patient of suffering lung cancer. In conclusion, we propose a non-invasive test to identify patients at high-risk for lung cancer from a non-selected population attending a Pulmonary Service. The efficacy of this three-marker panel must be tested in a larger population for lung cancer.

  14. Serum calprotectin, CD26 and EGF to establish a panel for the diagnosis of lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Prieto, Sonia; Vázquez-Iglesias, Lorena; Rodríguez-Girondo, Mar; Barcia-Castro, Leticia; Fernández-Villar, Alberto; Botana-Rial, María Isabel; Rodríguez-Berrocal, Francisco Javier; de la Cadena, María Páez

    2015-01-01

    Lung cancer is the most lethal neoplasia, and an early diagnosis is the best way for improving survival. Symptomatic patients attending Pulmonary Services could be diagnosed with lung cancer earlier if high-risk individuals are promptly separated from healthy individuals and patients with benign respiratory pathologies. We searched for a convenient non-invasive serum test to define which patients should have more immediate clinical tests. Six cancer-associated molecules (HB-EGF, EGF, EGFR, sCD26, VEGF, and Calprotectin) were investigated in this study. Markers were measured in serum by specific ELISAs, in an unselected population that included 72 lung cancer patients of different histological types and 56 control subjects (healthy individuals and patients with benign pulmonary pathologies). Boosted regression and random forests analysis were conducted for the selection of the best candidate biomarkers. A remarkable discriminatory capacity was observed for EGF, sCD26, and especially for Calprotectin, these three molecules constituting a marker panel boasting a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 87%, resulting in an associated misclassification rate of 15%. Finally, an algorithm derived by logistic regression and a nomogram allowed generating classification scores in terms of the risk of a patient of suffering lung cancer. In conclusion, we propose a non-invasive test to identify patients at high-risk for lung cancer from a non-selected population attending a Pulmonary Service. The efficacy of this three-marker panel must be tested in a larger population for lung cancer.

  15. Predictive Validity of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations in Predicting All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Specific Mortality in a National Prospective Cohort Study of Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Addoh, Ovuokerie

    2016-06-01

    The predictive validity of the Pooled Cohort risk (PCR) equations for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific and all-cause mortality among a national sample of US adults has yet to be evaluated, which was this study's purpose. Data from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed up through December 31, 2011, to ascertain mortality status via the National Death Index probabilistic algorithm. The analyzed sample included 11,171 CVD-free adults (40-79 years of age). The 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was determined from the PCR equations. For the entire sample encompassing 849,202 person-months, we found an incidence rate of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.07) all-cause deaths per 1000 person-months and an incidence rate of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.12-0.17) CVD-specific deaths per 1000 person-months. The unweighted median follow-up duration was 72 months. For nearly all analyses (unadjusted and adjusted models with ASCVD expressed as a continuous variable as well as dichotomized at 7.5% and 20%), the ASCVD risk score was significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality (Pequations was associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality among those free of CVD at baseline. In this American adult sample, the PCR equations provide evidence of predictive validity.

  16. Semiquantitative fecal calprotectin test in postinfectious and non-postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome: cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana-Elisabeta David

    Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:The presence of a certain degree of inflammation in the gut wall is now accepted in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS. Fecal calprotectin is considered to be a reliable test for detecting intestinal inflammation. Our aim was to assess the presence of inflammation in postinfectious IBS (PI-IBS, compared with non-postinfectious IBS (NPI-IBS. A secondary objective was to determine the usefulness of a rapid fecal calprotectin test in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD.DESIGN AND SETTING:This was a cross-sectional study. Patients with IBS and IBD at a single tertiary gastroenterology center were prospectively included in this study.METHODS:116 patients with Rome III IBS score (76 females; 48 ± 12 years were investigated; 24 patients (15 females had PI-IBS. Intestinal inflammation was assessed using the semiquantitative fecal calprotectin test. The results were expressed as T1, T2 or T3 according to the severity of inflammation ( 60 μg/g. Using the same test, we evaluated 20 patients with IBD (12 males; 47 ± 13 years.RESULTS:None of the patients with IBS had a T2 or T3 positive test. Among PI-IBS patients, 33% had a T1 positive test. Among NPI-IBS patients, 9.8% had a T1 positive test, which was significantly different to PI-IBS. The calprotectin test was positive in all IBD patients: 80% with T3, 10% with T2 and 10% with T1.CONCLUSIONS:Using a semiquantitative test for fecal calprotectin, positive tests were more frequent in PI-IBS patients than in NPI-IBS patients.

  17. Postoperative day one serum alanine amino-transferase does not predict patient morbidity and mortality after elective liver resection in non-cirrhotic patients

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RickY Harminder Bhogal; Amit Nair; Davide Papis; Zaed Hamady; Jawad Ahmad; For Tai Lam; Saboor Khan; Gabriele Marangoni

    2016-01-01

    Serum aminotransferases have been used as sur-rogate markers for liver ischemia-reperfusion injury that fol-lows liver surgery. Some studies have suggested that rises in serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) correlate with patient outcome after liver resection. We assessed whether postopera-tive day 1 (POD 1) ALT could be used to predict patient mor-bidity and mortality following liver resection. We reviewed our prospectively held database and included consecutive adult patients undergoing elective liver resection in our in-stitution between January 2013 and December 2014. Primary outcome assessed was correlation of POD 1 ALT with patient’s morbidity and mortality. We also assessed whether concurrent radiofrequency ablation, neoadjuvant chemotherapy and use of the Pringle maneuver signiifcantly affected the level of POD 1 ALT. A total of 110 liver resections were included in the study. The overall in-hospital patient morbidity and mortality were 31.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The median level of POD 1 ALT was 275 IU/L. No correlation was found between POD 1 serum ALT levels and patient morbidity after elective liver resection, whilst correlation with mortality was not possible because of the low number of mortalities. Patients undergoing concur-rent radiofrequency ablation were noted to have an increased level of POD 1 serum ALT but not those given neoadjuvant chemotherapy and those in whom the Pringle maneuver was used. Our study demonstrates POD 1 serum ALT does not cor-relate with patient morbidity after elective liver resection.

  18. Questionnaire, walking time and button test measures of functional capacity as predictive markers for mortality in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, T; Callahan, L F; Vaughn, W K

    1987-04-01

    Mortality over 9 years in rheumatoid arthritis was studied according to baseline demographic, disease, therapy and comorbidity variables, and measures of functional capacity variables. Significant differences between patients who survived and died over the next 9 years were seen for 8 variables: age, joint count, oral corticosteroid use, presence of concurrent heart disease, formal educational level, and 3 quantitative measures of functional capacity, questionnaire responses regarding activities of daily living, modified walking time and the button test. Five-year survivals of 50% or less were seen in patients with severely dysfunctional values for the 3 quantitative measures of functional capacity. Increased relative risk of mortality according to functional capacity measures was not explained by age, sex, duration of disease, smoking history, joint count, hand radiograph score, grip strength, morning stiffness, formal educational level, oral corticosteroid or parenteral gold use, or various comorbidities, and was not expected by a majority of physicians.

  19. Serum C-reactive protein predicts early mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, ShaoMing; Waili, Yulituzi; Qi, XiaoTing; Chen, YueMei; Lou, YuFeng; Chen, Bo

    2017-01-01

    The serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory marker. The aim of the present study was to elucidate whether CRP could serve as a potential surrogate marker for 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi).This was a retrospective cohort study that included 140 patients with HBV-DeCi. All patients were followed up for 1-month. A panel of clinical and biochemical variables were analyzed for potential associations with outcomes using multiple regression models.The serum CRP was significantly higher in nonsurviving patients than in surviving patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that CRP levels (odds ratio: 1.047, P = 0.002) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (odds ratio: 1.370, P = 0.001) were independent predictors for mortality.Serum CRP is a simple marker that may serve as an additional predictor of 1-month mortality in hospitalized patients with HBV-DeCi.

  20. Human Calprotectin: Effect of Calcium and Zinc on its Secondary and Tertiary Structures, and Role of pH in its Thermal Stability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Reza YOUSEFI; Mehdi IMANI; Susan K ARDESTANI; Ali Akbar SABOURY; Nematollah GHEIBI; Bijan RANJBAR

    2007-01-01

    Calprotectin, a heterodimeric complex belonging to the S100 protein family, has been found predominantly in the cytosolic fraction of neutrophils. In the present study, human calprotectin was purified from neutrophils using two-step ion exchange chromatography. The purified protein was used for circular dichroism study and fluorescence analysis in the presence of calcium and zinc at physiological concentrations,as well as for assessment of its inhibitory activity on the K562 leukemia cell line. The thermal stability of the protein at pH 7.0 (physiological pH) and 8.0 (similar to intestinal pH) was also compared. The results of cell proliferation analysis revealed that human calprotectin initiated growth inhibition of the tumor cells in a dosedependent manner. The intrinsic fluorescence emission spectra of human calprotectin (50 μg/ml) in the presence of calcium and zinc ions show a reduction in fluorescence intensity, reflecting a conformational change within the protein with exposure of aromatic residues to the protein surface that is important for the biological function of calprotectin. The far ultraviolet-circular dichroism spectra of human calprotectin in the presence of calcium and zinc ions at physiological concentrations show a decrease in the α-helical content of the protein and an increase in β- and other structures. Our results also show that increasing the pH level from 7.0 to 8.0 leads to a marked elevation in the thermal stability of human calprotectin, indicating a significant role for pH in the stability of calprotectin in the gut.

  1. Faecal calprotectin concentrations in apparently healthy children aged 0-12 years in urban Kampala, Uganda: a community-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grahnquist Lena

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Calprotectin is a calcium and zinc binding protein, abundant in neutrophils and is extremely stable in faeces. Faecal calprotectin is used as a non-specific marker for gastrointestinal inflammation. It has a good diagnostic precision to distinguish between irritable bowel syndrome and inflammatory bowel disease. Studies have established normal concentrations in healthy children; all these studies have been performed in high-income countries. The objective of this study was to determine the concentration of faecal calprotectin in apparently healthy children aged 0-12 years in urban Kampala, Uganda. Method We tested 302 apparently healthy children aged, age 0-12 years (162 female, 140 male in urban Kampala, Uganda. The children were recruited consecutively by door-to-door visits. Faecal calprotectin was analyzed using a quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Faeces were also tested for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori antigen, for growth of enteropathogens and microscopy was performed to assess protozoa and helminths. A short standardized interview with socio-demographic information and medical history was obtained to assess health status of the children. Results In the different age groups the median faecal calprotectin concentrations were 249 mg/kg in 0 H. pylori or having other pathogens in the stool. Conclusion Concentrations of faecal calprotectin among healthy children, living in urban Ugandan, a low-income country, are comparable to those in healthy children living in high-income countries. In children older than 4 years, the faecal calprotectin concentration is low. In healthy infants faecal calprotectin is high. The suggested cut-off concentrations in the literature can be used in apparently healthy Ugandan children. This finding also shows that healthy children living under poor circumstances do not have a constant inflammation in the gut. We see an opportunity to use this relatively inexpensive test for

  2. Comparison of Proposed Modified and Original Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Scores in Predicting ICU Mortality: A Prospective, Observational, Follow-Up Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshin Gholipour Baradari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score has been recommended to triage critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU. This study aimed to compare the performance of our proposed MSOFA and original SOFA scores in predicting ICU mortality. Methods. This prospective observational study was conducted on 250 patients admitted to the ICU. Both tools scores were calculated at the beginning, 24 hours of ICU admission, and 48 hours of ICU admission. Diagnostic odds ratio and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve were used to compare the two scores. Results. MSOFA and SOFA predicted mortality similarly with an area under the ROC curve of 0.837, 0.992, and 0.977 for MSOFA 1, MSOFA 2, and MSOFA 3, respectively, and 0.857, 0.988, and 0.988 for SOFA 1, SOFA 2, and SOFA 3, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of MSOFA 1 in cut-off point 8 were 82.9% and 68.4%, respectively, MSOFA 2 in cut-off point 9.5 were 94.7% and 97.1%, respectively, and MSOFA 3 in cut-off point of 9.3 were 97.4% and 93.1%, respectively. There was a significant positive correlation between the MSOFA 1 and the SOFA 1 (r: 0.942, 24 hours (r: 0.972, and 48 hours (r: 0.960. Conclusion. The proposed MSOFA and the SOFA scores had high diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for predicting mortality.

  3. Comparison of Proposed Modified and Original Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Scores in Predicting ICU Mortality: A Prospective, Observational, Follow-Up Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholipour Baradari, Afshin; Daneshiyan, Maryam; Aarabi, Mohsen; Talebiyan Kiakolaye, Yaser; Nouraei, Seyed Mahmood; Zamani Kiasari, Alieh; Habibi, Mohammad Reza; Emami Zeydi, Amir; Sadeghi, Faegheh

    2016-01-01

    Background. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score has been recommended to triage critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to compare the performance of our proposed MSOFA and original SOFA scores in predicting ICU mortality. Methods. This prospective observational study was conducted on 250 patients admitted to the ICU. Both tools scores were calculated at the beginning, 24 hours of ICU admission, and 48 hours of ICU admission. Diagnostic odds ratio and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to compare the two scores. Results. MSOFA and SOFA predicted mortality similarly with an area under the ROC curve of 0.837, 0.992, and 0.977 for MSOFA 1, MSOFA 2, and MSOFA 3, respectively, and 0.857, 0.988, and 0.988 for SOFA 1, SOFA 2, and SOFA 3, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of MSOFA 1 in cut-off point 8 were 82.9% and 68.4%, respectively, MSOFA 2 in cut-off point 9.5 were 94.7% and 97.1%, respectively, and MSOFA 3 in cut-off point of 9.3 were 97.4% and 93.1%, respectively. There was a significant positive correlation between the MSOFA 1 and the SOFA 1 (r: 0.942), 24 hours (r: 0.972), and 48 hours (r: 0.960). Conclusion. The proposed MSOFA and the SOFA scores had high diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for predicting mortality. PMID:28116220

  4. Clinical Effectiveness of Modified SOFA (MSOFA scoring system for predicting mortality and length of stay in patients hospitalized in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Babamohamadi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The ability to recognize the severity of the disease in those who their survival depend entirely on admission to the intensive care unit, is very valuable clinically. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of MSOFA scale to predict mortality and length of stay in ICU patients respectively. Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted on hospital records of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of Kowsar Hospital of Semnan. The data collection tool was a demographic questionnaire and MSOFA scale. Finally, data were analyzed using SPSS version 16 by logistic regression and ROC curve. Results: The study of 105 patients' records of the intensive care unit in 2015 showed that 45/7% of patients were died, 15/2% and 39% were discharged and moved to other wards respectively. The results of logistic regression analysis and ROC curve showed that this criterion had moderate sensitivity and specificity for prediction of mortality and length of stay in ICU patients (Area=0/635, CI= 0/527-0/743( and each unit increase in MSOFA score is accompanied by increasing 32 percent chance of death (OR=1.325; 95% CI:1.129,1.555; P=0.001(. Also each unit increase in MSOFA score accompanied by increasing 19% length of stay in ICU (OR=1.191; 95% CI: 1.034, 1.371; P=0.015(. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the MSOFA scale is not useful tool to predict the length of stay and mortality of patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

  5. The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, John

    2011-08-01

    ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

  6. Predictive validity and immune cell involvement in the pathogenesis of piroxicam-accelerated colitis in interleukin-10 knockout mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holgersen, Kristine; Kvist, Peter Helding; Hansen, Axel Kornerup; Holm, Thomas Lindebo

    2014-07-01

    Piroxicam administration is a method for induction of enterocolitis in interleukin-10 knockout (IL-10 k.o.) mice. The piroxicam-accelerated colitis (PAC) IL-10 k.o. model combines a dysregulated immune response against the gut microbiota with a decreased mucosal integrity. The predictive validity and pathogenic mechanisms of the model have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, IL-10 k.o. mice received piroxicam in the chow, and model qualification was performed by examining the efficacy of prophylactic anti-IL-12/23p40 monoclonal antibody (mAb), anti-TNFα mAb, cyclosporine A (CsA) and oral prednisolone treatment. To evaluate cell involvement in the disease pathogenesis, specific cell subsets were depleted by treatment with anti-CD4 mAb, anti-CD8 mAb or clodronate-encapsulated liposomes. T cell receptor co-stimulation was blocked by CTLA4-Ig. Cytokine profiling ELISAs and calprotectin immunohistochemistry were performed on colon tissue. Treatments with anti-IL-12/23p40 mAb and CsA prevented disease in PAC IL-10 k.o. mice and reduced IFNγ, IL-17A, MPO and calprotectin levels in colon. Anti-TNFα mAb treatment caused amelioration of selected clinical parameters. No effect of prednisolone was detected. Depletion of CD8(+) cells tended to increase mortality, whereas treatment with anti-CD4 mAb or CTLA4-Ig had no significant effect on disease development. Clodronate liposome treatment induced a loss of body weight; nevertheless macrophage depletion was associated with a significant reduction in colonic pathology. In conclusion, reference drugs with known efficacy in severe inflammatory bowel disease were efficacious in the PAC IL-10 k.o. model. Our data indicate that in this model macrophages are a main driver of colitis, whereas CD4(+) cells are not.

  7. Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predicting mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.J.M. Baggen (Vivan J. M.); I. Leiner; M.C. Post (Martijn); A.P.J. van Dijk (Arie); J.W. Roos-Hesselink (Jolien); H. Boersma (Eric); J. Habets; G.T. Sieswerda (Gertjan)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: To provide a comprehensive overview of all reported cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) findings that predict clinical deterioration in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Methods: MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies p

  8. Predicting effects of global warming on growth and mortality of upland oak species in the midwestern United States: A physiologically based dendroecological approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LeBlanc, D.C. (Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States)); Foster, J.R. (Butler Univ., Indianapolis, IN (United States))

    1992-01-01

    An ecophysiological model and dendroecological analyses were combined to evaluate potential effects of global warming on the physiology, growth, and mortality of white oak (Quercus alba L.) and black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) in the Ohio River region. The model integrated data for ecophysiology of oak species, site attributes, and daily temperature and precipitation to model nonlinear responses of stomatal conductance (g), net photosynthesis (P) and woody respiration (R) to variations in temperature and soil water content. Relationships between modeled physiological response indices and actual annual radial growth indices were evaluated by regression analyses, using growth and weather data for 1900-1987. Modeled physiological response indices explained 40-60% of variation in radial growth indices. To evaluate the effects of global warming, daily temperature values for 1900-1987 were increased by 2 or 5[degree]C, without changing precipitation values, and physiological response indices were computed. Model indices generated in warming simulations were entered into dendroclimatic regression models calibrated under conditions without any warming to predict radial growth under warming scenarios. Under the warming scenarios, the model predicted a substantial increase in growing season R, but little change in growing season P. The net effect of increased R with little change in P was a reduction in radial growth and a higher frequency of years with climatic conditions stressful to oaks on upland sites. A historical association between severe drought and increased incidence of oak growth decline and mortality indicated that global warming could increase the incidence of decline and mortality in oak populations on upland sites similar to those in this study. 63 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Predicting cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease in Spain. The rationale and design of NEFRONA: a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

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    Roig Jordi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD. Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk (reverse epidemiology effect and the presence of emerging risk factors specifically related to kidney failure. Therefore, diagnostic tools capable of improving cardiovascular risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors are currently warranted. We present the protocol of a 4-year prospective study aimed to assess the predictive value of non-invasive imaging techniques and biomarkers for CVD events and mortality in patients with CKD. Methods From November 2009 to October 2010, 4137 asymptomatic adult patients with stages 2 to 5 CKD will be recruited from nephrology services and dialysis units throughout Spain. During the same period, 843 participants without CKD (control group will be recruited from lists of primary care physicians, only at baseline. During the follow-up, CVD events and mortality will be recorded from all CKD patients. Clinical and laboratory characteristics will be collected in a medical documentation sheet. Three trained itinerant teams will carry out a carotid ultrasound to assess intima-media thickness and presence of plaques. A composite atherosclerosis score will be constructed based on carotid ultrasound data and measurement of ankle-brachial index. In CKD patients, presence and type of calcifications will be assessed in the wall of carotid, femoral and brachial arteries, and in cardiac valves, by ultrasound. From all participants, blood samples will be collected and stored in a biobank to study novel biomarkers. Conclusions The NEFRONA study is the first large, prospective study to examine the predictive value of several non-invasive imaging techniques and novel biomarkers in CKD patients throughout Spain. Hereby, we present the

  10. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinaccio, Alessandro; Montanaro, Fabio; Mastrantonio, Marina; Uccelli, Raffaella; Altavista, Pierluigi; Nesti, Massimo; Costantini, Adele Seniori; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2005-05-20

    Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model.

  11. Plasma concentration of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lajer, M.; Tarnow, L.; Jorsal, A.

    2008-01-01

    performed a prospective observational follow-up study including 397 type 1 diabetic patients with overt diabetic nephropathy (243 men aged 42.1 +/- 10.5 years, GFR 76 +/- 34 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) and a control group of 175 patients with longstanding type 1 diabetes and persistent normoalbuminuria (104 men...... aged 42.7 +/- 9.7 years, duration of diabetes 27.7 +/- 8.3 years). Patients were followed for a median 11.3 years (range 0.0-12.9) with yearly measurements of GFR ((51)Cr-EDTA plasma clearance) in patients with diabetic nephropathy. Endpoints were fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD......), decline in GFR, ESRD, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among patients with diabetic nephropathy, 37 patients (19.4%) with ADMA levels below the median, compared with 79 patients (43.4%) above the median, suffered a major cardiovascular event during the follow-up period (P

  12. Prognostic Abilities and Quality Assessment of Models for the Prediction of 90-Day Mortality in Liver Transplant Waiting List Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthold, Marc; Kaltenborn, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Background Model of end-stage liver disease (MELD)-score and diverse variants are widely used for prognosis on liver transplant waiting-lists. Methods 818 consecutive patients on the liver transplant waiting-list included to calculate the MELD, MESO Index, MELD-Na, UKELD, iMELD, refitMELD, refitMELD-Na, upMELD and PELD-scores. Prognostic abilities for 90-day mortality were investigated applying Receiver-operating-characteristic-curve analysis. Independent risk factors for 90-day mortality were identified with multivariable binary logistic regression modelling. Methodological quality of the underlying development studies was assessed with a systematic assessment tool. Results 74 patients (9%) died on the liver transplant waiting list within 90 days after listing. All but one scores, refitMELD-Na, had acceptable prognostic performance with areas under the ROC-curves (AUROCs)>0.700. The iMELD performed best (AUROC = 0.798). In pediatric cases, the PELD-score just failed to reach the acceptable threshold with an AUROC = 0.699. All scores reached a mean quality score of 72.3%. Highest quality scores could be achieved by the UKELD and PELD-scores. Studies specifically lack statistical validity and model evaluation. Conclusions Inferior quality assessment of prognostic models does not necessarily imply inferior prognostic abilities. The iMELD might be a more reliable tool representing urgency of transplantation than the MELD-score. PELD-score is assumedly not accurate enough to allow graft allocation decision in pediatric liver transplantation. PMID:28129338

  13. Predicting mortality after congenital heart surgeries: Evaluation of the Aristotle and Risk Adjustement in Congenital Heart surgery-1 risk prediction scoring systems: A retrospective single center analysis of 1150 patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shreedhar S Joshi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate Aristotle basic complexity and Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ABC and ACC and risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1 prediction models for in hospital mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease in a single surgical unit. Materials and Methods: Patients younger than 18 years, who had undergone surgery for congenital heart diseases from July 2007 to July 2013 were enrolled. Scoring for ABC and ACC scoring and assigning to RACHS-1 categories were done retrospectively from retrieved case files. Discriminative power of scoring systems was assessed with area under curve (AUC of receiver operating curves (ROC. Calibration (test for goodness of fit of the model was measured with Hosmer-Lemeshow modification of χ2 test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI were applied to assess reclassification. Results: A total of 1150 cases were assessed with an all-cause in-hospital mortality rate of 7.91%. When modeled for multivariate regression analysis, the ABC (χ2 = 8.24, P = 0.08, ACC (χ2 = 4.17 , P = 0.57 and RACHS-1 (χ2 = 2.13 , P = 0.14 scores showed good overall performance. The AUC was 0.677 with 95% confidence interval (CI of 0.61-0.73 for ABC score, 0.704 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76 for ACC score and for RACHS-1 it was 0.607 (95%CI: 0.55-0.66. ACC had an improved predictability in comparison to RACHS-1 and ABC on analysis with NRI and IDI. Conclusions: ACC predicted mortality better than ABC and RCAHS-1 models. A national database will help in developing predictive models unique to our populations, till then, ACC scoring model can be used to analyze individual performances and compare with other institutes.

  14. Comparing the predictive accuracy of frailty, comorbidity, and disability for mortality: a 1-year follow-up in patients hospitalized in geriatric wards

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    Ritt M

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Martin Ritt,1,2 Julia Isabel Ritt,2 Cornel Christian Sieber,1,3 Karl-Günter Gaßmann1,2 1Institute for Biomedicine of Ageing (IBA, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU, Nürnberg, 2Department of Internal Medicine III (Medicine of Ageing, Geriatrics Centre Erlangen, Hospital of the Congregation of St Francis Sisters of Vierzehnheiligen, Erlangen, 3Department of Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Hospital of the Order of St John of God, Regensburg, Germany Background: Studies evaluating and comparing the power of frailty, comorbidity, and disability instruments, together and in parallel, for predicting mortality are limited.Objective: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the measures of frailty, comorbidity, and disability in predicting 1-year mortality in geriatric inpatients.Design: Prospective cohort study.Patients and setting: A total of 307 inpatients aged ≥65 years in geriatric wards of a general hospital participated in the study.Measurements: The patients were evaluated in relation to different frailty, comorbidity, and disability instruments during their hospital stays. These included three frailty (the seven-category Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS-7], a 41-item frailty index [FI], and the FRAIL scale, two comorbidity (the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics [CIRS-G] and the comorbidity domain of the FI [Comorbidity-D-FI], and two disability instruments (disability in basic activities of daily living [ADL-Katz] and the instrumental and basic activities of daily living domains of the FI [IADL/ADL-D-FI]. The patients were followed-up over 1 year.Results: Using FI, CIRS-G, Comorbidity-D-FI, and ADL-Katz, this study identified a patient group with a high (≥50% 1-year mortality rate in all of the patients and the two patient subgroups (ie, patients aged 65–82 years and ≥83 years. The CFS-7, FI, FRAIL scale, CIRS-G, Comorbidity-D-FI, and IADL/ADL-D-FI (analyzed as full scales revealed useful

  15. Seven-day mortality can be predicted in medical patients by blood pressure, age, respiratory rate, loss of independence, and peripheral oxygen saturation (the PARIS score: a prospective cohort study with external validation.

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    Mikkel Brabrand

    Full Text Available Most existing risk stratification systems predicting mortality in emergency departments or admission units are complex in clinical use or have not been validated to a level where use is considered appropriate. We aimed to develop and validate a simple system that predicts seven-day mortality of acutely admitted medical patients using routinely collected variables obtained within the first minutes after arrival.This observational prospective cohort study used three independent cohorts at the medical admission units at a regional teaching hospital and a tertiary university hospital and included all adult (≥ 15 years patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the clinical variables that best predicted the endpoint. From this, we developed a simplified model that can be calculated without specialized tools or loss of predictive ability. The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5% met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0% in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3% in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were associated with the endpoint (full model. Based on this, we developed a simple score (range 0-5, ie, the PARIS score, by dichotomizing the variables. The ability to identify patients at increased risk (discriminatory power and calibration was excellent for all three cohorts using both models. For patients with a PARIS score ≥ 3, sensitivity was 62.5-74.0%, specificity 85.9-91.1%, positive predictive value 11.2-17.5%, and negative predictive value 98.3-99.3%. Patients with a score ≤ 1 had a low mortality (≤ 1%; with 2, intermediate mortality (2-5%; and ≥ 3, high mortality (≥ 10%.Seven-day mortality can be predicted upon admission with high sensitivity and specificity and excellent negative predictive values.

  16. Correlation between gut pathogens and fecal calprotectin levels in young children with acute diarrhea

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    Yanever Angela Lam

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background In cases of acute diarrhea, it is difficult to distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes. Increased fecal calprotectin (f-CP level is a marker of neutrophil migration in the intestinal lumen and is associated with intestinal inflammation. Previous studies reported an increase in f-CP levels in children with acute diarrhea, which is caused by bacteria, but only few have studied the relationship between intestinal pathogens with f-CP levels in acute diarrhea. Objective To assess for a correlation between gut pathogens and fecal calprotectin levels in children with acute diarrhea. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study between July to November 2012 on children aged 1-5 years with acute diarrhea, and underwent routine blood tests, stool microscopy, f-CP tests, and stool cultures. We used a simple linear regression and correlation analysis with a significance level of P<0.05. Results Forty-two children enrolled in this study. The mean age of subjects was 2.27 (SD 1.34 years. Their mean f-CP level was 93.88 (SD 14.68 μg/g. On microscopic stool examination, 26 patients (61.9% had positive leukocytes, 1 had Ancylostoma duodenale, 1 had Ascaris lumbricoides, and 2 had Blastocystis hominis. Positive stool cultures were found in 14 children (33.3% with acute diarrhea. There was a significant positive correlation between gut pathogens and f-CP levels (r=0.605; P<0.0001. Conclusion In young children with acute diarrhea, the average f-CP levels are higher in those with positive intestinal pathogens. [Paediatr Indones. 2014;54:193-7.].

  17. Fecal calprotectin: a marker for clinical differentiation of microscopic colitis and irritable bowel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    von Arnim U

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Ulrike von Arnim, Thomas Wex, Christine Ganzert, Christian Schulz, Peter Malfertheiner Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Infectious Diseases, Otto-von-Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany Background: The aim of this study is to compare two methods for measuring fecal calprotectin (FC concentration and to evaluate the possibility of differentiation between microscopic colitis (MC and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS. Methods: Twenty-three patients with MC (six patients with active disease and 17 patients retested in remission and 20 patients with IBS were prospectively included in this study. Active disease state of MC was determined by clinical symptoms of >3 bowel movements per day and histological correlate. All patients underwent ileocolonoscopy, including segmental biopsy samples for histology. FC levels in stool samples were analyzed using a rapid test system (Quantum Blue® and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Results: FC levels were significantly higher in patients with active MC (median 48 µg/g [23–106] compared to patients with IBS (median 2 µg/g [1–111.83], P=0.0001 using an ELISA. FC level of patients with MC in remission was 22 µg/g (1–106.4, which is similar to those identified in patients with IBS. The difference of FC levels between active MC and IBS was not detected by the FC rapid test (P=0.635. Discussion: FC levels might serve as parameter for differentiation between patients with active MC and IBS. Since there is no surrogate marker available at present for MC, FC appears to be a candidate for differentiating MC from IBS. Conclusion: High FC levels, which were analyzed by ELISA, are a potential marker for patients with active MC compared to those with IBS. The FC rapid test was less suitable for this purpose. Keywords: microscopic colitis, fecal calprotectin, irritable bowel syndrome, IBS, diarrhea, chronic diarrhea

  18. An effects addition model based on bioaccumulation of metals from exposure to mixtures of metals can predict chronic mortality in the aquatic invertebrate Hyalella azteca.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norwood, Warren P; Borgmann, Uwe; Dixon, D George

    2013-07-01

    Chronic toxicity tests of mixtures of 9 metals and 1 metalloid (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Tl, and Zn) at equitoxic concentrations over an increasing concentration range were conducted with the epibenthic, freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. The authors conducted 28-d, water-only tests. The bioaccumulation trends changed for 8 of the elements in exposures to mixtures of the metals compared with individual metal exposures. The bioaccumulation of Co and Tl were affected the most. These changes may be due to interactions between all the metals as well as interactions with waterborne ligands. A metal effects addition model (MEAM) is proposed as a more accurate method to assess the impact of mixtures of metals and to predict chronic mortality. The MEAM uses background-corrected body concentration to predict toxicity. This is important because the chemical characteristics of different waters can greatly alter the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of metals, and interactions among metals for binding at the site of action within the organism can affect body concentration. The MEAM accurately predicted toxicity in exposures to mixtures of metals, and predicted results were within a factor of 1.1 of the observed data, using 24-h depurated body concentrations. The traditional concentration addition model overestimated toxicity by a factor of 2.7.

  19. Aplicação do escore CRIB para avaliar o risco de mortalidade neonatal The use of CRIB score for predicting neonatal mortality risk

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    Ana Lúcia F. Sarquis

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: 1 avaliar o valor preditivo do Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB para óbito hospitalar; 2 identificar a variável do escore com melhor valor preditivo; e 3 comparar a capacidade do escore CRIB para predizer mortalidade hospitalar com a do peso de nascimento, da idade gestacional e do excesso de base isolados. Métodos: o escore CRIB foi aplicado de forma prospectiva em 100 recém-nascidos admitidos consecutivamente na Unidade Neonatal do HC-UFPR, que tinham peso de nascimento igual ou inferior a 1.500 g ou idade gestacional menor que 31 semanas. Resultados: cinqüenta e cinco recém-nascidos eram do sexo feminino e 45, do masculino, a média do peso de nascimento foi de 1.078,0 277,0 g, e da idade gestacional de 29,2 2,8 semanas. Vinte e um pacientes foram a óbito. A mortalidade nos graus 1, 2, 3 e 4 do CRIB foi, respectivamente, de 6,6%; 46,2%, 85,7% e 100,0%. A precisão do escore para mortalidade foi confirmada (área sob a curva ROC = 0,877, e a melhor variável do escore para prognosticar o óbito hospitalar foi o excesso de base máximo (área sob a curva ROC = 0,795. Comparado com peso de nascimento e idade gestacional, o CRIB foi significativamente melhor para predizer mortalidade. Conclusões: além de ser útil no prognóstico do óbito hospitalar, o CRIB mostrou-se um escore de aplicação simples. Com base nos resultados encontrados, recomenda-se sua incorporação na rotina das unidades neonatais.Objective: to examine the clinical risk index for babies (CRIB predictive value for hospital death; to identify the score variable with the best predictive value and to compare CRIB score capability to predict hospital mortality to birth weight, gestational age and base excess. Methods: CRIB score was obtained through a prospective way from 100 newborns with birthweight of 1,500 g or less or gestational age less than 31 weeks, who were admitted consecutively to the Neonatal Unit of Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade

  20. Efficacy of computed tomography for the prediction of colectomy and mortality in patients with clostridium difficile infection

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    Laura Paláu-Dávila

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: We designed a CT scale to predict colectomy, able to rule out the development of fulminant colitis and the need for surgical procedure. Patients with wall thickening of the caecum, ascending, descending or sigmoid colon were more likely to die within 30 days of CDI diagnosis.

  1. The plasma level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteraemia and predicts mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittenhagen, p; Kronborg, Gitte; Nielsen, H

    2004-01-01

    This multicentre prospective study was conducted to investigate whether the level of the soluble form of urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is elevated during pneumococcal bacteraemia and is of predictive value in the early stage of the disease. Plasma levels of suPAR were incr...

  2. Circulating Endothelial-Derived Activated Microparticle: A Useful Biomarker for Predicting One-Year Mortality in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

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    Chin-Chou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study tested the hypothesis that circulating microparticles (MPs are useful biomarkers for predicting one-year mortality in patients with end-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC. Methods and Results. One hundred seven patients were prospectively enrolled into the study between April 2011 and February 2012, and each patient received regular follow-up after enrollment. Levels of four MPs in circulation, (1 platelet-derived activated MPs (PDAc-MPs, (2 platelet-derived apoptotic MPs (PDAp-MPs, (3 endothelial-derived activated MPs (EDAc-MPs, and (4 endothelial-derived apoptotic MPs (EDAp-MPs, were measured just after the patient was enrolled into the study using flow cytometry. Patients who survived for more than one year were categorized into group 1 (n=56 (one-year survivors and patients who survived less than one year were categorized into group 2 (n=51 (one-year nonsurvivors. Male gender, incidence of liver metastasis, progression of disease after first-line treatment, poor performance status, and the Charlson comorbidity index were significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (all P<0.05. Additionally, as measured by flow cytometry, only the circulating level of EDAc-MPs was found to be significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1 (P=0.006. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that circulating level of EDAc-MPs along with brain metastasis and male gender significantly and independently predictive of one-year mortality (all P<0.035. Conclusion. Circulating EDAc-MPs may be a useful biomarker predictive of one-year morality in ES-NSCLC patients.

  3. Relative contributions of socio-cultural variables to the prediction of maternal mortality in Edo South Senatorial District, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchie, Chinwe Lucy; Anyanwu, Francisca Chika

    2009-06-01

    The study examined the extent of contributions of socio-cultural factors to maternal mortality (through survey method). Two thousand one hundred and fifty seven (2,157) females of reproductive age were selected using multi-stage sampling technique. The instrument was a self developed structured and validated questionnaire with a reliability of 0.82. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and In-depth interview guide were used to complement the instrument. Inferential statistics of multiple regression was employed to test the hypothesis at 0.05 level of significance. The result showed that the most relevant variables across the two locations (rural and urban) was early marriage/early child bearing (R2 = 0.200; F = 401.40; P = 0.001) followed by educational attainment. Others in descending order were: women decision making power; traditional obstetric care services; female genital mutilation; economic status and access to health care service. This indicates the importance of formulating policies that would focus on attaining high level of literacy among girls.

  4. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC risk adjuster with the charlson and elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality

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    Li Pengxiang

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. Methods The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF, stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM, and acute myocardial infarction (AMI were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. Results The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. Conclusions The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS

  5. Comparison of the Ability to Predict Mortality between the Injury Severity Score and the New Injury Severity Score: A Meta-Analysis

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    Qiangyu Deng

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Description of the anatomical severity of injuries in trauma patients is important. While the Injury Severity Score has been regarded as the “gold standard” since its creation, several studies have indicated that the New Injury Severity Score is better. Therefore, we aimed to systematically evaluate and compare the accuracy of the Injury Severity Score and the New Injury Severity Score in predicting mortality. Methods: Two researchers independently searched the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases and included studies from which the exact number of true-positive, false-positive, false-negative, and true-negative results could be extracted. Quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist criteria. The meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc. Meta-regression, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the source(s of heterogeneity and factor(s affecting the accuracy of the New Injury Severity Score and the Injury Severity Score in predicting mortality. Results: The heterogeneity of the 11 relevant studies (total n = 11,866 was high (I2 > 80%. The meta-analysis using a random-effects model resulted in sensitivity of 0.64, specificity of 0.93, positive likelihood ratio of 5.11, negative likelihood ratio of 0.27, diagnostic odds ratio of 27.75, and area under the summary receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.9009 for the Injury Severity Score; and sensitivity of 0.71, specificity of 0.87, positive likelihood ratio of 5.22, negative likelihood ratio of 0.20, diagnostic odds ratio of 24.74, and area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9095 for the New Injury Severity Score. Conclusion: The New Injury Severity Score and the Injury Severity Score have similar abilities in predicting mortality. Further research is required to determine the appropriate use of the Injury Severity Score or the New Injury Severity Score based on

  6. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: This paper aims to present the methods and main results from the Danish occupational mortality studies, and to set the Danish studies into the international context of occupational mortality studies. RESEARCH TOPICS: The first Danish occupational mortality study from 1970...

  7. Acid sphingomyelinase serum activity predicts mortality in intensive care unit patients after systemic inflammation: a prospective cohort study.

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    Matthias Kott

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Acid sphingomyelinase is involved in lipid signalling pathways and regulation of apoptosis by the generation of ceramide and plays an important role during the host response to infectious stimuli. It thus has the potential to be used as a novel diagnostic marker in the management of critically ill patients. The objective of our study was to evaluate acid sphingomyelinase serum activity (ASM as a diagnostic and prognostic marker in a mixed intensive care unit population before, during, and after systemic inflammation. METHODS: 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit at risk for developing systemic inflammation (defined as systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus a significant procalcitonin [PCT] increase were included. ASM was analysed on ICU admission, before (PCT before, during (PCT peak and after (PCT low onset of SIRS. Patients undergoing elective surgery served as control (N = 8. Receiver-operating characteristics curves were computed. RESULTS: ASM significantly increased after surgery in the eight control patients. Patients from the intensive care unit had significantly higher ASM on admission than control patients after surgery. 19 out of 40 patients admitted to the intensive care unit developed systemic inflammation and 21 did not, with no differences in ASM between these two groups on admission. In patients with SIRS and PCT peak, ASM between admission and PCT before was not different, but further increased at PCT peak in non-survivors and was significantly higher at PCT low compared to survivors. Survivors exhibited decreased ASM at PCT peak and PCT low. Receiver operating curve analysis on discrimination of ICU mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.79 for ASM at PCT low. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, ASM was generally higher in patients admitted to the intensive care unit compared to patients undergoing uncomplicated surgery. ASM did not indicate onset of systemic inflammation. In contrast to PCT however

  8. Serum lipopolysaccharide binding protein levels predict severity of lung injury and mortality in patients with severe sepsis.

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    Jesús Villar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is a need for biomarkers insuring identification of septic patients at high-risk for death. We performed a prospective, multicenter, observational study to investigate the time-course of lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP serum levels in patients with severe sepsis and examined whether serial serum levels of LBP could be used as a marker of outcome. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: LBP serum levels at study entry, at 48 hours and at day-7 were measured in 180 patients with severe sepsis. Data regarding the nature of infections, disease severity, development of acute lung injury (ALI and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS, and intensive care unit (ICU outcome were recorded. LBP serum levels were similar in survivors and non-survivors at study entry (117.4+/-75.7 microg/mL vs. 129.8+/-71.3 microg/mL, P = 0.249 but there were significant differences at 48 hours (77.2+/-57.0 vs. 121.2+/-73.4 microg/mL, P<0.0001 and at day-7 (64.7+/-45.8 vs. 89.7+/-61.1 microg/ml, p = 0.017. At 48 hours, LBP levels were significantly higher in ARDS patients than in ALI patients (112.5+/-71.8 microg/ml vs. 76.6+/-55.9 microg/ml, P = 0.0001. An increase of LBP levels at 48 hours was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio 3.97; 95%CI: 1.84-8.56; P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Serial LBP serum measurements may offer a clinically useful biomarker for identification of patients with severe sepsis having the worst outcomes and the highest probability of developing sepsis-induced ARDS.

  9. The PPAR gamma 2 Pro12Ala variant predicts ESRD and mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorsal, Anders; Tarnow, L; Lajer, Maria Stenkil

    2008-01-01

    The Pro12Ala polymorphism in the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma 2 gene is suggested to associate with diabetic nephropathy and cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate the polymorphism in relation to diabetic nephropathy, end-stage renal...... disease (ESRD), mortality and cardiovascular (CVD) events in type 1 diabetic patients. This prospective observational follow-up study included 415 type 1 diabetic patients with overt diabetic nephropathy (252 men; age 42.2+/-10.4 years [mean+/-SD], duration of diabetes 28.3+/-8.8 years, GFR 66+/-8.8 ml.......11-6.07)). Furthermore, Carriers of the Ala-allele had a higher rate of decline in GFR (p=0.040). In conclusion, the Pro12Ala polymorphism is not associated with type 1 diabetic nephropathy. The Ala-allele is associated with enhanced decline in GFR and predicts ESRD and all-cause mortality in patients with nephropathy....

  10. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  11. Medical comorbidities at admission is predictive for 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction: analysis of 5161 cases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue-Dong Yang; Yu-Sheng Zhao; Yu-Feng Li; Xin-Hong Guo

    2011-01-01

    Background The present study investigated the prognostic value of medical comorbidities at admission for 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods A total of 5161 patients with AMI were admitted in Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 1. 1993 and December 31, 2007. Medical comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes mellitus,previous myocardial infarction, valvular heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), renal insufficiency, previous stroke,atrial fibrillation and anemia, were identified at admission. The patients were divided into 4 groups based on the number of medical comorbidities at admission (0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3). Cox regression analysis was used to calculate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with adjustment for age, sex, heart failure and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Results The mean age of the studied population was 63.9 ± 13.6 years, and 80.1% of the patients were male. In 74.6% of the patients at least one comorbidity were identified.Hypertension (50.7%), diabetes mellitus (24.0%) and previous myocardial infarction (12%) were the leading common comorbidities at admission. The 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with 0, I, 2, and ≥ 3 comorbidities at admission (7.2%) was 4.9%, 7.2%, 11.1%, and 20.3%, respectively. The presence of 2 or more comorbidities was associated with higher 30-day in-hospital mortality compared with patients without comorbidity (RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.13-1.77, P = 0.003, and RR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.59-2.39, P = 0.000, respectively).Conclusions Medical comorbidities were frequently found in patients with AMI. AMI patients with more comorbidities had a higher 30-day in-hospital mortality might be predictive of early poor outcome in patients with AMI.J Geriatr Cardiol2011; 8: 31-34. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1263.2011.00031

  12. Differences between adiposity indicators for predicting all-cause mortality in a representative sample of United States non-elderly adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry S Kahn

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adiposity predicts health outcomes, but this relationship could depend on population characteristics and adiposity indicator employed. In a representative sample of 11,437 US adults (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994, ages 18-64 we estimated associations with all-cause mortality for body mass index (BMI and four abdominal adiposity indicators (waist circumference [WC], waist-to-height ratio [WHtR], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and waist-to-thigh ratio [WTR]. In a fasting subsample we considered the lipid accumulation product (LAP; [WC enlargement*triglycerides]. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For each adiposity indicator we estimated linear and categorical mortality risks using sex-specific, proportional-hazards models adjusted for age, black ancestry, tobacco exposure, and socioeconomic position. There were 1,081 deaths through 2006. Using linear models we found little difference among indicators (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] per SD increase 1.2-1.4 for men, 1.3-1.5 for women. Using categorical models, men in adiposity midrange (quartiles 2+3; compared to quartile 1 were not at significantly increased risk (aHRs1.1, especially black men assessed by WTR (aHR 1.9 [1.4-2.6] and black women by LAP (aHR 2.2 [1.4-3.5]. Quartile 4 of WC or WHtR carried no significant risk for diabetic persons (aHRs 0.7-1.1, but elevated risks for those without diabetes (aHRs>1.5. For both sexes, quartile 4 of LAP carried increased risks for tobacco-exposed persons (aHRs>1.6 but not for non-exposed (aHRs<1.0. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions of mortality risk associated with top-quartile adiposity vary with the indicator used, sex, ancestry, and other characteristics. Interpretations of adiposity should consider how variation in the physiology and expandability of regional adipose-tissue depots impacts health.

  13. Low total cortisol correlates closely with low free cortisol in traumatic brain injury and predicts mortality and long-term hypopituitarism

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hannon, M J

    2011-06-01

    Published data has demonstrated that low 0900h plasma total cortisol (PTC) in the acute phase following traumatic brain injury (TBI) predicts mortality. However, there is concern regarding the use of PTC to evaluate the pituitary-adrenal axis in acutely unwell patients due to potential discrepancies between PTC and plasma free cortisol (PFC) due to variations in corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG). We hypothesised that low PTC would correlate closely with PFC and would predict mortality and long-term hypopituitarism.100 patients (84 men, median age 33, range 18-75) were recruited on admission with TBI (mean GCS+\\/-SD = 8.59+\\/-4.2). Each patient had PTC and CBG measured on days 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 following TBI. Results were compared with 15 patients admitted to ITU following vascular surgery. A PTC <300nmol\\/L in a patient in ITU was regarded clinically as inappropriately low. PFC was calculated for 25% of TBI samples and all control samples using Coolen\\'s equation (1). TBI patients reattended for dynamic pituitary testing >6 months after TBI.All controls had PTC >500 nmol\\/L on day 1, and >300 nmol on days 3–10. By contrast, 78\\/100 TBI patients had at least one PTC <300 nmol\\/L.TBI patients in the lowest quartile of final PTC measurement had the highest mortality (p=0.0187). PTC correlated closely with PFC in both TBI patients (r=0.99, p<0.0001) and controls (r=0.99, p<0.0001). 32\\/79 (40.5%) of TBI survivors attended for dynamic pituitary testing. The median time to dynamic pituitary testing was 14 months (range 6–24 months). 15\\/32 (46.9%) underwent insulin tolerance testing, 9\\/32 (28.1%) underwent glucagon testing and 8\\/32 (25%) underwent short synacthen testing. 6\\/32 (18.8%) were ACTH deficient, of whom 5\\/6 (83.3%) previously had low PTC. 6\\/32 were GH deficient, all of whom previously had low PTC. One patient was gonadotropin deficient; he previously had low PTC. No patients were TSH or prolactin deficient. Overall, 12\\/32 (37

  14. The ability of two scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injuries in a Moroccan intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hicham Nejmi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim of Study: We aim to assess and to compare the predicting power for in-hospital mortality (IHM of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (SAPS-II for traumatic brain injury (TBI. Patients and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted during a period of 2 years and 9 months in a Moroccan intensive care unit. Data were collected during the first 24 h of each admission. The clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed and used as per each scoring system to calculate the scores. Univariate and multivariate analyses through regression logistic models were performed, to predict IHM after moderate and severe TBIs. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC, specificities and sensitivities were determined and also compared. Results: A total of 225 patients were enrolled. The observed IHM was 51.5%. The univariate analysis showed that the initial Glasgow coma scale (GCS was lower in nonsurviving patients (mean GCS = 6 than the survivors (mean GCS = 9 with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0024. The APACHE-II and the SAPS-II of the nonsurviving patients were higher than those of the survivors (respectively 20.4 ± 6.8 and 31.2 ± 13.6 for nonsurvivors vs. 15.7 ± 5.4 and 22.7 ± 10.3 for survivors with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0032 for APACHE-II and P = 0.0045 for SAPS-II. Multivariate analysis: APACHE-II was superior for predicting IHM (AUROC = 0.92. Conclusion: The APACHE-II is an interesting tool to predict IHM of head injury patients. This is particularly relevant in Morocco, where TBI is a greater public health problem than in many other countries.

  15. Sudden Oak Death-Induced Tanoak Mortality in Coast Redwood Forests: Current and Predicted Impacts to Stand Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin L. O’Hara

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus syn. Lithocarpus densiflorus is one of the most widespread and abundant associates of coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens, but little is known about the structural relationships between these two species. Knowledge of such relationships is essential for a thorough understanding of the impacts of sudden oak death (caused by the exotic pathogen Phytophthora ramorum, which is currently decimating tanoak populations throughout the redwood range. In this study, we utilized a stratified plot design and a stand reconstruction technique to assess structural impacts, at present and in the future, of this emerging disease. We found that residual trees in diseased plots were more aggregated than trees in unaffected plots, and we predicted that the loss of tanoak will lead to the following short-term changes: greater average diameter, height, height-to-live-crown, and crown length, as well as an increase in average nearest neighbor differences for diameter, height, and crown length. In addition, plots lacking tanoak (living or dead—as compared to plots with tanoak—exhibited greater average diameter and increased nearest neighbor differences with regard to diameter, height, and crown length. We also conducted a preliminary exploration of how sudden oak death-induced structural changes compare with typical old-growth characteristics, and how this disease may affect the structure of old-growth forests.

  16. Fecal Calprotectin Measured By Patients at Home Using Smartphones--A New Clinical Tool in Monitoring Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinding, Kristoffer Kofod; Elsberg, Henriette; Thorkilgaard, Tine

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Fecal calprotectin is a reliable noninvasive marker for intestinal inflammation usable for monitoring patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Tests are usually performed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), which is time consuming and delays results, thus limiting its use...... in clinical practice. Our aim was to evaluate CalproSmart, a new rapid test for fecal calprotectin performed by patients themselves at home, and compare it to gold standard ELISA. METHODS: A total of 221 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (115 ulcerative colitis and 106 Crohn's disease) were included...... CalproSmart at home, patients also sent in 2 fecal samples to be analyzed by ELISA. RESULTS: Totally, 894 fecal calprotectin results were obtained by ELISA, and 632 of them from CalproSmart. The correlation coefficient was 0.685, higher for academics than nonacademics (0.768 versus 0.637; P = 0...

  17. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  18. Human Papillomavirus Infections are Common and Predict Mortality in a Retrospective Cohort Study of Taiwanese Patients With Oral Cavity Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Li-Ang; Huang, Chung-Guei; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Liao, Chun-Ta; Kang, Chung-Jan; Chang, Kai-Ping; Huang, Shiang-Fu; Chen, I-How; Fang, Tuan-Jen; Li, Hsueh-Yu; Yang, Shu-Li; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsueh, Chuen; Lin, Chien-Yu; Fan, Kang-Hsing; Chang, Tung-Chieh; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2015-11-01

    confirmed in the 2008 cohort (c-statistic = 0.71).We conclude that HPV infections are common in Taiwanese OCC patients and predict 5-year OS. If independently validated, our composite prognostic score comprising HPV16 infection may be useful for allocating OCC patients to risk-adapted therapies.

  19. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. METHODS We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993–2013). RESULTS The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3–6), moderate- (7–11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. CONCLUSIONS Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the Euro

  20. Clinical application of fecal calprotectin%粪钙卫蛋白的临床应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    历娜娜; 唐志鹏; 郝微微; 温红珠; 刘玉婷

    2015-01-01

    粪钙卫蛋白(faecal calprotectin,FC)是一种分子量为36 kDa的钙和锌的结合蛋白,是S100钙A8结合蛋白基因的表达.其成分在中性粒细胞的细胞质所含比例最高,占30% ~ 40%.除中性粒细胞外,目前还检测到单核细胞与活化的巨噬细胞中有少量钙卫蛋白的存在.目前诊断胃肠疾病主要通过消化内镜等检查,这种检查对患者来说价格昂贵、痛苦较大且过程繁琐,而FC检测特点恰恰与其相反,具有很强的临床实用性.本文通过查阅大量文献对FC与IBD疾病活动度及疾病复发的关系、FC与内镜的关系、FC与其他疾病的关系以及影响FC数值的因素作一概述.

  1. Calprotectin induces cell death in human prostate cancer cell (LNCaP) through survivin protein alteration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattari, Mina; Pazhang, Yaghub; Imani, Mehdi

    2014-11-01

    Calprotectin (CP), an abundant heterodimeric cytosolic protein of neutrophils, conveys a variety of functions such as tumor cell growth arrest and antimicrobial activity. We investigated CP activity and its possible apoptosis-inducing mechanism of action against an antiandrogen therapy-resistance prostate cancer cell line LNCaP. Cell viability and Annexin V FITC assays were performed in order to investigate its cell death activity and apoptosis, respectively. In order to address cell death inducing mechanism(s), immunocytochemistry and immunobloting analysis, reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitric oxide (NO) measurements were performed. The effective concentration of CP against LNCaP promoting LNCaP cell death was 200 µg/mL. ROS and NO levels of cells remarkably were enhanced following treatment with 50 and 100 µg/mL of CP, respectively. Protein expression of anti-apoptotic protein survivin was significantly decreased after administration of tumor cells with CP. Our data indicate that CP regulates the LNCaP cells viability via survivin-mediated pathway and ROS and NO enhancement. Thus, inhibition of survivin expression, enhancement of ROS and NO level by CP or other similar pharmaceutical agents might be effective in lowering the malignant proliferation of human prostate cancer cells.

  2. Human calprotectin is an iron-sequestering host-defense protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakashige, Toshiki G; Zhang, Bo; Krebs, Carsten; Nolan, Elizabeth M

    2015-10-01

    Human calprotectin (CP) is a metal-chelating antimicrobial protein of the innate immune response. The current working model states that CP sequesters manganese and zinc from pathogens. We report the discovery that CP chelates iron and deprives bacteria of this essential nutrient. Elemental analysis of CP-treated growth medium establishes that CP reduces the concentrations of manganese, iron and zinc. Microbial growth studies reveal that iron depletion by CP contributes to the growth inhibition of bacterial pathogens. Biochemical investigations demonstrate that CP coordinates Fe(II) at an unusual hexahistidine motif, and the Mössbauer spectrum of (57)Fe(II)-bound CP is consistent with coordination of high-spin Fe(II) at this site (δ = 1.20 mm/s, ΔEQ = 1.78 mm/s). In the presence of Ca(II), CP turns on its iron-sequestering function and exhibits subpicomolar affinity for Fe(II). Our findings expand the biological coordination chemistry of iron and support a previously unappreciated role for CP in mammalian iron homeostasis.

  3. Usefulness of Faecal Calprotectin Measurement in Children with Various Types of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzena Komraus

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The aim of the study was to assess the usefulness of the FC measurement in children with various types of IBD and relation to the disease activity. Patients and Methods. 91 patients (49 boys: 53.85% and 42 girls: 46.15%, mean age: 13.38 years, range 6–18 years were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into the groups: B1—24 children with CD, B2—16 patients with UC, and a group comprising 31 children with other types of colitis; the control group (K comprised 20 healthy children. FC was assayed by ELISA method, using Phical test (Calpro. Results. The mean faecal calprotectin concentrations were higher in children with CD and UC as compared to healthy controls, patients with eosinophilic, lymphocytic, and nonspecific colitis. A positive correlation was observed between FC concentrations and the disease activity (the PCDAI scale, the Truelove-Witts Scale, and the endoscopic Rachmilewitz Index. Conclusion. It seems that the FC concentrations can be a useful, safe, and noninvasive test in children suspected for IBD, since FC concentration is higher in children with CD and UC than in patients with other inflammatory diseases.

  4. The Role of Fecal Calprotectin in Evaluating Intestinal Involvement of Behçet’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burak Özşeker

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the regions of involvement of Behçet’s disease (BD, a systematic inflammatory vasculitis with unknown etiology, is the gastrointestinal (GI tract. Upper GI endoscopy, colonoscopy, and capsule endoscopy are frequently used methods to diagnose the intestinal involvement of BD. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of fecal calprotectin (FC in the evaluation of intestinal involvement in BD. Material and Method. A total of 30 patients who were diagnosed with BD and had no GI symptoms and 25 individuals in the control group were included in this study. Results. Levels of FC were statistically significantly higher in patients with BD compared to the control group (p<0.001. The correlation analysis performed including FC and markers of disease activity revealed a positive and statistically significant correlation between FC level and CRP and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (r: 0.255, p<0.049, and r: 0.404, p<0.001, resp.. FC levels in patients who were detected to have ulcers in the terminal ileum and colon in the colonoscopic examination were statistically significantly higher compared to the patients with BD without intestinal involvement (p=0.01. Conclusion. The measurement of FC levels, in patients with BD who are asymptomatic for GI involvement, may be helpful to detect the possible underlying intestinal involvement.

  5. Validity of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in A Sub-population of Chongqing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Khalill Ramjane; Han LEI; Jing CHANG

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To determine the validity and applicability of the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) pre-diction model for in-hospital mortality in all forms of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a sub population of Chongqing. Methods Data of 669 ACS patients were collected retrospectively from Jan 2005 to Apr 2008 and were re-corded on a standardized case report form. For each patient the GRACE risk score (GRACE RS) was calculated (using the GRACE calculator available from the grace website) using specific variables collected at admission. Patients with missing data and those transferred from other hospitals were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the GRACE risk score. Results Among 576 ACS patients, 98 (17.01%), 36 (6. 25 %), and 442 (76. 74 %) presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI), non-ST elevation MI and unstable angina, re-spectively. The GRACE risk score could not be determined in 91 (9. 3 %) patients due to missing data or for patients who were transferred from other hospitals and were excluded from the analysis. The median GRACE risk score was 133 (interquartile range: 92 - 174) and, the in-hospital rates of death and death/(re-) MI were 6. 1% and 7.6 %, respec-tively. The GRACE risk score demonstrated excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0. 86, 95 % CI 0. 79 - 0. 91, P < 0. 001) for in-hospital death/ (re) -MI. Conclusions The GRACE RS study had a good predictive accuracy for death or MI across the wide range of ACS in this population. It may be a useful risk stratification tool that helps identify high-risk patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization and low risk patients who may be spared from un-dergoing more aggressive interventional treatment.

  6. Combined use of the National Early Warning Score and D-dimer levels to predict 30-day and 365-day mortality in medical patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nickel, Christian H; Kellett, John; Cooksley, Tim;

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the combined use of NEWS and D-dimer levels to predict the 30-day and 365-day mortality rates of a cohort of Danish patients with complete follow-up. METHODS: Post-hoc retrospective observational study of acutely admitted medical patients aged 18 years or older who had D......-dimer measured within 6h after arrival to two medical admission units in Denmark. RESULTS: The final study population consisted of 1201 patients with a median age of 65.0 years (range 18.0-107.0 years), and 44.7% were of male sex. Four patients (0.3%) died within 24h of admission, 69 (5.7%) within 30 days...... and 198 (16.5%) within 365 days. On admission, 576 (48%) patients had a NEWS≥3 - of these 441 had a D-dimer≥0.50mgL(-1): 55 (12.5%) of these patients died within 30 days, compared with 5 (3.7%) of the 135 patients with a D-dimer

  7. High day 28 ST2 levels predict for acute graft-versus-host disease and transplant-related mortality after cord blood transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, Doris M; Hilden, Patrick; Mumaw, Christen; Devlin, Sean M; Lubin, Marissa; Giralt, Sergio; Goldberg, Jenna D; Hanash, Alan; Hsu, Katharine; Jenq, Robert; Perales, Miguel-Angel; Sauter, Craig; van den Brink, Marcel R M; Young, James W; Brentjens, Renier; Kernan, Nancy A; Prockop, Susan E; O'Reilly, Richard J; Scaradavou, Andromachi; Paczesny, Sophie; Barker, Juliet N

    2015-01-01

    While cord blood transplantation (CBT) is an effective therapy for hematologic malignancies, acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is a leading cause of transplant-related mortality (TRM). We investigated if biomarkers could predict aGVHD and TRM after day 28 in CBT recipients. Day 28 samples from 113 CBT patients were analyzed. Suppressor of tumorigenicity 2 (ST2) was the only biomarker associated with grades II-IV and III-IV aGVHD and TRM. Day 180 grade III-IV aGVHD in patients with high ST2 levels was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18-43) vs 13% (95% CI, 5-23) in patients with low levels (P = .024). The adverse effect of elevated ST2 was independent of HLA match. Moreover, high day 28 ST2 levels were associated with increased TRM with day 180 estimates of 23% (95% CI, 13-35) vs 5% (95% CI, 1-13) if levels were low (P = .001). GVHD was the most common cause of death in high ST2 patients. High concentrations of tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, interleukin-8, and regenerating islet-derived protein 3-α were also associated with TRM. Our results are consistent with those of adult donor allografts and warrant further prospective evaluation to facilitate future therapeutic intervention to ameliorate severe aGVHD and further improve survival after CBT.

  8. Ambulatory ECG-based T-wave alternans and heart rate turbulence can predict cardiac mortality in patients with myocardial infarction with or without diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-na Ren

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many patients who survive a myocardial infarction (MI remain at risk of sudden cardiac death despite revascularization and optimal medical treatment. We used the modified moving average (MMA method to assess the utility of T-wave alternans (TWA and heart rate turbulence (HRT as risk markers in MI patients with or without diabetes mellitus (DM. Methods We prospectively enrolled 248 consecutive patients: 96 with MI (post-MI patients; 77 MI with DM (post-MI + DM patients; 75 controls without cardiovascular disease (group control. Both TWA and HRT were measured on ambulatory electrocardiograms (AECGs. HRT was assessed by two parameters ─ turbulence onset (TO and turbulence slope (TS. HRT was considered positive when both TO ≥0% and TS ≤2.5 ms/R-R interval were met. The endpoint was cardiac mortality. Results TWA values differed significantly between MI and controls. Post-MI + DM patients had higher TWA values than post-MI patients (58 ± 21 μV VS 52 ± 18 μV, P = 0.029. Impaired HRT--increased TO and decreased TS were observed in MI patients with or without DM. During follow-up of 578 ± 146 days, cardiac death occurred in ten patients and three of them suffered sudden cardiac death (SCD. Multivariate analysis determined that a HRT-positive outcome [HR (95% CI: 5.01, 1.33–18.85; P = 0.017], as well as the combination of abnormal TWA (≥47 μV and positive HRT had significant association with the endpoint [HR (95% CI: 9.08, 2.21–37.2; P = 0.002]. Conclusion This study indicates that AECGs-based TWA and HRT can predict cardiac mortality in MI patients with or without DM. Combined analysis TWA and HRT may be a convenient and useful method of identifying patients at high risk for cardiovascular death.

  9. Hepatitis C viral load, genotype 3 and interleukin-28B CC genotype predict mortality in HIV and hepatitis C-coinfected individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen Nygaard, Louise; Astvad, Karen; Ladelund, Steen;

    2012-01-01

    : We hypothesized that hepatitis C virus (HCV) load and genotype may influence all-cause mortality in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals.......: We hypothesized that hepatitis C virus (HCV) load and genotype may influence all-cause mortality in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals....

  10. Double-strand break DNA repair genotype predictive of later mortality and cancer incidence in a cohort of non-smokers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neasham, David; Gallo, Valentina; Guarrera, Simonetta; Dunning, Alison; Overvad, Kim; Tjonneland, Anne; Clavel-Chapelon, Francoise; Linseisen, Jakob P.; Malaveille, Christian; Ferrari, Pietro; Boeing, Heiner; Benetou, Vassiliki; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Palli, Domenico; Crosignani, Paolo; Tumino, Rosario; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-De-Mesquita, H. Bas; Peeters, Petra H.; van Gib, Carla H.; Lund, Eiliv; Gonzalez, Carlos A.; Martinez, Carmen; Dorronsoro, Miren; Barricarte, Aurelio; Navarro, Carmen; Quiros, Jose R.; Berglund, Goran; Jarvholm, Bengt; Khaw, Kay Tee; Key, Timothy J.; Bingham, Sheila; Jose Diaz, Tormo M.; Riboli, Elio; Matullo, Giuseppe; Vineis, Paolo

    2009-01-01

    We followed-up for mortality and cancer incidence 1088 healthy non-smokers from a population-based study, who were characterized for 22 variants in 16 genes involved in DNA repair pathways. Follow-up was 100% complete. The association between polymorphism and mortality or cancer incidence was analyz

  11. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

    2008-01-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....

  12. Fecal calprotectin concentrations in healthy children aged 1-18 months.

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    Feng Li

    Full Text Available Fecal calprotectin (FC is an established biomarker of gut inflammation. The aim of this study was to evaluate FC concentrations in healthy children between 1 and 18 months of age.Healthy children aged 1-18 months were enrolled in this study at the Department of Children's Health Care in Shanghai, China. Children's stool samples were collected and analyzed, and FC concentration was determined using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. The children's weights and lengths were measured. Parents were asked to complete a brief questionnaire regarding several clinical and sociodemographic factors.The FC concentrations were unevenly distributed; the median FC concentration was 174.3 μg/g (range: 6.0-1097.7 μg/g or 2.241 log10 μg/g (range: 0.775-3.041 log10 μg/g for all 288 children. The children were divided into several age groups: 1-3 months, 3-6 months, 6-9 months, 9-12 months and 12-18 months. The median FC concentrations for these age groups were 375.2 μg/g (2.574 log10 μg/g, 217.9 μg/g (2.338 log10 μg/g, 127.7 μg/g (2.106 log10 μg/g, 96.1 μg/g (1.983 log10 μg/g and 104.2 μg/g (2.016 log10 μg/g, respectively. A significant correlation between age and FC concentration was found (r=-0.490, p4 years.

  13. FOCUS: Future of fecal calprotectin utility study in inflammatory bowel disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Greg; Greenup, Astrid-Jane; Round, Andrew; Takach, Oliver; Halparin, Lawrence; Saadeddin, Abid; Ho, Jin Kee; Lee, Terry; Enns, Robert; Bressler, Brian

    2016-01-01

    AIM To evaluate the perspective of gastroenterologists regarding the impact of fecal calprotectin (FC) on the management of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS Patients with known IBD or symptoms suggestive of IBD for whom the physician identified that FC would be clinically useful were recruited. Physicians completed an online “pre survey” outlining their rationale for the test. After receipt of the test results, the physicians completed an online “post survey” to portray their perceived impact of the test result on patient management. Clinical outcomes for a subset of patients with follow-up data available beyond the completion of the “post survey” were collected and analyzed. RESULTS Of 373 test kits distributed, 290 were returned, resulting in 279 fully completed surveys. One hundred and ninety patients were known to have IBD; 147 (77%) with Crohn’s Disease, 43 (21%) Ulcerative Colitis and 5 (2%) IBD unclassified. Indications for FC testing included: 90 (32.2%) to differentiate a new diagnosis of IBD from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), 85 (30.5%) to distinguish symptoms of IBS from IBD in those known to have IBD and 104 (37.2%) as an objective measure of inflammation. FC levels resulted in a change in management 51.3% (143/279) of the time which included a significant reduction in the number of colonoscopies (118) performed (P < 0.001). Overall, 97.5% (272/279) of the time, the physicians found the test sufficiently useful that they would order it again in similar situations. Follow-up data was available for 172 patients with further support for the clinical utility of FC provided. CONCLUSION The FC test effected a change in management 51.3% of the time and receipt of the result was associated with a reduction in the number of colonoscopies performed. PMID:27688663

  14. Mortality investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Work, Thierry M.; Franson, J. Christian; Friend, Milton; Gibbs, Samantha E.J.; Wild, Margaret A.

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife mortality events usually occur unannounced and may find management agencies unaware. These events can become highly visible and politically charged affairs, depending upon the scale or species involved. The public, media, and (or) politicians may pressure managers, field investigators, and diagnosticians to quickly identify the cause or to comment on potential causes, the significance of the event, what is being done about it, and a resolution. It may be common during such events for speculation to rage, and for conflicting theories to be advanced to explain either the environmental conditions that led to the mortality or the actual cause of death.

  15. Fatores preditivos de morbidade e mortalidade no trauma hepático Predictive factors of morbidity and mortality in hepatic trauma

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    Alan César Diório

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Identificar os fatores preditivos de complicações e mortalidade em doentes operados com trauma hepático. MÉTODO: Estudo retrospectivo de 638 pacientes tratados no período de 1990 a 2003, identificando estatisticamente parâmetros epidemiológicos, fisiológicos e anatômicos associados com maior morbidade e mortalidade. RESULTADOS: Trauma penetrante foi o mecanismo mais freqüente. A instabilidade hemodinâmica esteve presente em 21,1% das vítimas e o Índice de Gravidade das Lesões anatômicas (ISS médio foi de 20,7. A maioria das lesões hepáticas foi grau III. A morbidade foi de 50,4%, sendo as complicações relacionadas ao fígado mais freqüentes: sangramento persistente (9,8%, abscesso intraperitoneal (3,8% e fístula biliar (3%. As complicações não hepáticas ocorreram em 273 pacientes (42,8%. A mortalidade foi de 22,1% (141 casos decorrente principalmente de sangramento persistente e sepse. As vítimas fatais apresentaram-se com pior índice fisiológico na admissão, com lesões hepáticas mais complexas e índices anatômicos mais graves quando comparadas aos sobreviventes. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores preditivos de ocorrência de complicações hepáticas foram: idade maior que 60 anos, instabilidade hemodinâmica ou alteração de parâmetros fisiológicos na admissão, presença de lesões hepáticas complexas (grau > III e índices anatômicos de gravidade de lesão abdominal (ATI ou em outros segmentos corpóreos (ISS elevados (= 25. Todas estas variáveis, mais a presença de lesões associadas abdominais e não abdominais e o mecanismo de trauma fechado foram preditivas de ocorrência de complicações não-hepáticas. Todos os fatores estudados, exceto a presença de lesões associadas abdominais, foram preditivos para a evolução a óbito.BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive factors of morbidity and mortality in patients operated on for liver trauma. METHODS: Six hundred thirty eight

  16. Prognostic utility of plasma S100A12 levels to establish a novel scoring system for predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective observational study in Japan

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    Shiotsu Yayoi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background S100A12 protein is an endogenous receptor ligand for advanced glycation end products. In this study, the plasma S100A12 level was assessed as an independent predictor of mortality, and its utility in clinical settings was examined. Methods In a previous cross-sectional study, plasma S100A12 levels were measured in 550 maintenance hemodialysis patients to determine the association between S100A12 and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD. In this prospective study, the risk of mortality within a two-year period was determined. An integer scoring system was developed to predict mortality on the basis of the plasma S100A12 levels. Results Higher plasma S100A12 levels (≥18.79 ng/mL were more closely associated with higher all-cause mortality than lower plasma S100A12 levels (P = 0.001. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed higher plasma S100A12 levels [hazard ratio (HR, 2.267; 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.195–4.302; P = 0.012], age ≥65 years (HR, 1.961; 95%CI, 1.017–3.781; P = 0.044, serum albumin levels P = 0.012, and history of CVD (HR, 2.068; 95%CI, 1.146–3.732; P = 0.016 to be independent predictors of two-year all-cause mortality. The integer score was derived by assigning points to these factors and determining total scores. The scoring system revealed trends across increasing scores for predicting the all-cause mortality [c-statistic = 0.730 (0.656–0.804]. The resulting model demonstrated good discriminative power for distinguishing the validation population of 303 hemodialysis patients [c-statistic = 0.721 (0.627–0.815]. Conclusion The results indicate that plasma S100A12 level is an independent predictor for two-year all-cause mortality. A simple integer scoring system was therefore established for predicting mortality on the basis of plasma S100A12 levels.

  17. Valor preditivo dos escores de SNAP e SNAP-PE na mortalidade neonatal Predictive value of SNAP and SNAP-PE for neonatal mortality

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    Rita C. Silveira

    2001-12-01

    results. METHODS: All newborn infants admitted to our neonatal intensive care unit from March 1997 through December 1998 were prospectively evaluated just at completion of 24 hours of life for SNAP and SNAP-PE. Exclusion criteria were: death or discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit in the first 24 hours of life, congenital malformations incompatible with life, and outborn infants. RESULTS: 553 newborn infants were included in the study and 54 died. The median SNAP and SNAP-PE values were higher in those who died. Infants were allocated to five different raising ranges of SNAP and SNAP-PE severity. SNAP: up to 6, 7-11, 12-15, 16-24, higher than 24 (mortality: 3%, 11%, 29%, 48%,75%, respectively. SNAP-PE: up to 11, 12-23, 24-32, 33-50, higher than 50 (mortality: 3%, 10%, 53%, 78%, 83%, respectively. The optimal cut off points based on ROC curve were 12 for SNAP, and 24 for SNAP-PE. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV, and negative predictive value (NPV for death were figured out. SNAP 12: sensitivity 79.6%, specificity 71.7%, PPV 23.4%, NPV 97%. SNAP-PE 24: sensitivity 79.6%, specificity 80%, PPV 30%, NPV 97.3%. The area under the curve (Az were 81.4% for SNAP, and 85.1% for SNAP-PE, both statistically significant. There were no statistical differences between the two areas under the curve. CONCLUSIONS: SNAP and SNAP-PE are excellent predictors of neonatal survival. Therefore, we recommend their use in Neonatal Intensive Care Units.

  18. Prediction of cardiovascular disease mortality by proteinuria and reduced kidney function: pooled analysis of 39,000 individuals from 7 cohort studies in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, Masaharu; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Irie, Fujiko; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okamura, Tomonori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2013-07-01

    There are limited studies addressing whether proteinuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are independently associated with cardiovascular disease in Asia. Using data from 7 prospective cohorts recruited between 1980 and 1994 in Japan, we assessed the influence of proteinuria (≥1+ on dipstick) and reduced eGFR on the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in 39,405 participants (40-89 years) without kidney failure. During a 10.1-year follow-up, 1,927 subjects died from cardiovascular disease. Proteinuria was associated with a 1.75-fold (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44, 2.11) increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Additionally, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of cardiovascular disease mortality increased linearly with lower eGFR levels (P(trend) cardiovascular disease mortality than those with eGFR of ≥90 mL/minute/1.73 m². Subjects with both proteinuria and eGFR of cardiovascular disease mortality compared with those with neither of these risk factors. There was no evidence of interaction in the relationship between proteinuria and lower eGFR (P(interaction) = 0.77). The present results suggest that proteinuria and lower eGFR are independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease mortality in the Japanese population.

  19. Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, T. I.; Vaupel, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard. Mor...

  20. The role of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in predicting hospital mortality for percutaneous coronary interventions in the Clinical Outcomes Assessment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Charles; Rao, Sunil V; Gregg, Mary; Phillips, Richard C; Reisman, Mark; Tucker, Eben; Goss, J Richard

    2009-01-01

    Published mortality models for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), including the Clinical Outcomes Assessment Program (COAP) model, have not considered the effect of out-ofhospital cardiac arrest. The primary objective of this study was to determine if the inclusion of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest altered the COAP mortality model for PCI. The COAP PCI database contains extensive demographic, clinical, procedural and outcome information, including out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, which was added to the data collection form in 2006. This study included 15,586 consecutive PCIs performed in 31 Washington State hospitals in 2006. Using development and test sets, the existing COAP PCI logistic regression mortality model was examined to assess the effect of out-of-hospital arrest on in-hospital mortality. Overall, 2% of individuals undergoing PCI had cardiac arrest prior to hospital arrival. Among 8 hospitals with PCI volumes 120 cases per year did. In-hospital mortality was 19% in the arrest group and was 1.0% in remaining procedures (p < 0.0001). In the new multivariate model, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest was highly associated with mortality (odds ratio = 5.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.28-9.25). When evaluated in the test set, the new model had excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.85-0.93). Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is an important determinant of risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for PCI, particularly for hospitals with low volumes and relatively high volumes of cardiac arrest cases.

  1. Long-term follow-up and analysis of prediction of mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

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    Dan BAO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective To explore the risk factors for mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI. Methods The patients who were admitted with STEMI to our hospital between July 2008 and November 2012 undergoing PCI during hospitalization were enrolled. Case control study was conducted to observe these patients during the follow-up period for exploring the independent predictors of survival. Results  A total of 3551 consecutive patients were enrolled in this study. These patients were followed up for 5 years with a median followup time of 406[179, 892] days. A total of 106 deaths occurred during the follow-up period. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 88.6% by Kaplan-Meier method. Female, age, diabetes, stroke, dysarteriotony, renal insufficiency, elevation of creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB, left ventricular end diastolic dimension, anemia, anterior myocardial infarction, PCI complications and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP were independent risk factors for mortality, whereas complete revascularization was associated with decreased risk of mortality. Conclusions Long-term mortality rate of patients with STEMI is higher even after successful PCI. Less PCI complications and early complete revascularization are independent predictors for decreasing mortality rate during follow-up period. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2015.04.05

  2. Usefulness of Serum Albumin Concentration to Predict High Coronary SYNTAX Score and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtul, Alparslan; Murat, Sani Namik; Yarlioglues, Mikail; Duran, Mustafa; Ocek, Adil Hakan; Koseoglu, Cemal; Celık, Ibrahim Etem; Kilic, Alparslan; Aksoy, Ozlem

    2016-01-01

    High SYNTAX score is a predictor of adverse cardiovascular events, including mortality, in acute coronary syndromes (ACSs). Decreased serum albumin (SA) concentration is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We aimed to investigate whether SA levels at admission are associated with high SYNTAX score and in-hospital mortality in patients with ACS. The study included 1303 patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography (CA). The patients were divided into 2 groups as high SYNTAX score (≥33) and lower SYNTAX score (≤32). Baseline SA levels were significantly lower in patients with high SYNTAX score than with lower SYNTAX score (3.46 ± 0.42 mg/dL vs 3.97±0.37 mg/dL, respectively; P SYNTAX score (odds ratio 4.329, 95% confidence interval 2.028-8.264; P SYNTAX score, and SA (SYNTAX score and in-hospital mortality in ACS.

  3. Cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei-Jie; Chen, Xu-Miao; Nie, Xiao-Ying; Zhang, Jing; Cheng, Yun-Jiu; Lin, Xiao-Xiong; Wu, Su-Hua

    2015-04-01

    Elevated serum levels of cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease. However, the relationship between these two biomarker levels and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease remains unclear. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the association of cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. Relevant studies were identified by searching the MEDLINE database through November 2013. Studies were included in the meta-analysis if they reported the long-term all-cause or cardiovascular mortality of chronic kidney disease patients with abnormally elevated serum levels of cardiac troponin or C-reactive protein. Summary estimates of association were obtained using a random-effects model. Thirty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. From the pooled analysis, cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein were significantly associated with all-cause (HR 2.93, 95% CI 1.97-4.33 and HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14-1.29, respectively) and cardiovascular (HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.67-6.41 and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.28, respectively) mortality. In the subgroup analysis of cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein, significant heterogeneities were found among the subgroups of population for renal replacement therapy and for the proportion of smokers and the C-reactive protein analysis method. Elevated serum levels of cardiac troponin and C-reactive protein are significant associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. Further studies are warranted to explore the risk stratification in chronic kidney disease patients.

  4. Deciphering infant mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrut, Sylvie; Pouillard, Violette; Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper is about infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" refers to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition falling within the field of application of the Transient Shock (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond and Roehner (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically and also predicts that after a steep rise there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which the transient shock occurs several days after birth. Thus, for fish there are three stages: egg, yolk-sac and young adult phases. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using very accurate Swiss statistics for postnatal death rates spanning the period from one hour immediately after birth through to age 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a significant and large reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. Moreover the hyperbolic pattern observed for humans is also found for small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our overall objective is to identify a series of cases which start from simple systems and move step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here we believe represent initial landmarks in this quest.

  5. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

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    Michael Hiesmayr

    Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

  6. Molecular basis for manganese sequestration by calprotectin and roles in the innate immune response to invading bacterial pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damo, Steven M; Kehl-Fie, Thomas E; Sugitani, Norie; Holt, Marilyn E; Rathi, Subodh; Murphy, Wesley J; Zhang, Yaofang; Betz, Christine; Hench, Laura; Fritz, Günter; Skaar, Eric P; Chazin, Walter J

    2013-03-05

    The S100A8/S100A9 heterodimer calprotectin (CP) functions in the host response to pathogens through a mechanism termed "nutritional immunity." CP binds Mn(2+) and Zn(2+) with high affinity and starves bacteria of these essential nutrients. Combining biophysical, structural, and microbiological analysis, we identified the molecular basis of Mn(2+) sequestration. The asymmetry of the CP heterodimer creates a single Mn(2+)-binding site from six histidine residues, which distinguishes CP from all other Mn(2+)-binding proteins. Analysis of CP mutants with altered metal-binding properties revealed that, despite both Mn(2+) and Zn(2+) being essential metals, maximal growth inhibition of multiple bacterial pathogens requires Mn(2+) sequestration. These data establish the importance of Mn(2+) sequestration in defense against infection, explain the broad-spectrum antimicrobial activity of CP relative to other S100 proteins, and clarify the impact of metal depletion on the innate immune response to infection.

  7. Increase in Skin Autofluorescence and Release of Heart-Type Fatty Acid Binding Protein in Plasma Predicts Mortality of Hemodialysis Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsov, Stefan; Trajceska, Lada; van Oeveren, Wim; Smit, Andries J.; Dzekova, Pavlina; Stegmayr, Bernd; Sikole, Aleksandar; Rakhorst, Gerhard; Graaff, Reindert

    2013-01-01

    Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are uremic toxins that accumulate progressively in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year increase in skin autofluorescence (DAF), a measure of AGEs accumulation and plasma markers, as predictors of mortality in HD patients.

  8. Usefulness of heart rate to predict one-year mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation and acute myocardial infarction (from the OMEGA trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin; Becker, Ruediger; Rauch, Bernhard; Schiele, Rudolf; Schneider, Steffen; Riemer, Thomas; Diller, Frank; Gohlke, Helmut; Gottwik, Martin; Steinbeck, Gerhard; Sabin, Georg; Katus, Hugo A; Senges, Jochen

    2013-03-15

    In the setting of acute myocardial infarction and sinus rhythm, the heart rate (HR) has been demonstrated to correlate closely with mortality. In patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation (AF) on admission, however, the prognostic relevance of the HR has not yet been systematically addressed. A post hoc subgroup analysis of the data from the OMEGA trial was conducted to analyze whether the admission HR determines the 1-year mortality in patients presenting with AF in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. Of 3,851 patients enrolled in the OMEGA study, 211 (6%) presented with AF on admission. This subgroup was dichotomized according to the admission HR (cutoff 95 beats/min). Multiple regression analysis revealed that an admission HR of ≥95 beats/min independently determined the 1-year mortality in patients with AF (odds ratio 4.69, 95% confidence interval 1.47 to 15.01; p = 0.01). In conclusion, this is the first study demonstrating that a high HR (≥95 beats/min) on admission in patients with AF and acute myocardial infarction is associated with an almost fivefold mortality risk.

  9. Global Longitudinal Strain by Echocardiography Predicts Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in a Low-Risk General Population

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    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Olsen, Flemming Javier

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is prognostic of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in various patient populations, but the prognostic utility of GLS for long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1296 participa...

  10. Bone marrow-infiltrating human neuroblastoma cells express high levels of calprotectin and HLA-G proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Morandi

    Full Text Available Metastases in the bone marrow (BM are grim prognostic factors in patients with neuroblastoma (NB. In spite of extensive analysis of primary tumor cells from high- and low-risk NB patients, a characterization of freshly isolated BM-infiltrating metastatic NB cells is still lacking. Our aim was to identify proteins specifically expressed by metastatic NB cells, that may be relevant for prognostic and therapeutic purposes. Sixty-six Italian children over 18 months of age, diagnosed with stage 4 NB, were included in the study. Metastatic NB cells were freshly isolated from patients' BM by positive immunomagnetic bead manipulation using anti-GD2 monoclonal antibody. Gene expression profiles were compared with those obtained from archived NB primary tumors from patients with 5 y-follow-up. After validation by RT-qPCR, expression/secretion of the proteins encoded by the up-regulated genes in the BM-infiltrating NB cells was evaluated by flow cytometry and ELISA. Compared to primary tumor cells, BM-infiltrating NB cells down-modulated the expression of CX3CL1, AGT, ATP1A2 mRNAs, whereas they up-regulated several genes commonly expressed by various lineages of BM resident cells. BM-infiltrating NB cells expressed indeed the proteins encoded by the top-ranked genes, S100A8 and A9 (calprotectin, CD177 and CD3, and secreted the CXCL7 chemokine. BM-infiltrating NB cells also expressed CD271 and HLA-G. We have identified proteins specifically expressed by BM-infiltrating NB cells. Among them, calprotectin, a potent inflammatory protein, and HLA-G, endowed with tolerogenic properties facilitating tumor escape from host immune response, may represent novel biomarkers and/or targets for therapeutic intervention in high-risk NB patients.

  11. Early Monitoring of Response (MORE) to Golimumab Therapy Based on Fecal Calprotectin and Trough Serum Levels in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis: A Multicenter Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Attyla; Sturm, Andreas; Blömacher, Margit

    2016-01-01

    Background The treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity with anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) antibodies leads to a clinical remission rate of 10% after 8 weeks of therapy. However, it must be taken into account that patient selection in clinical trials clearly influences both response and remission rates. An unsatisfactory response to anti-TNFα medication after week 12 often leads to a discontinuation of treatment. The early prediction of clinical response could therefore help optimize therapy and potentially avoid ineffective treatments. Objective The aim of this study is to develop an algorithm for optimizing golimumab administration in patients with moderate to severe UC by calculating the probability of clinical response in Week 26 based on data from Week 6. Methods The study is designed as a prospective, single-arm, multicenter, non-interventional observational study with no interim analyses and a sample size of 58 evaluable patients. The primary outcome is the prediction of clinical response in Week 26 based on a 50% reduction in fecal calprotectin and a positive golimumab trough level in Week 6. Results Enrollment started in October 2014 and was still open at the date of submission. The study is expected to finish in December 2016. Conclusions The early identification of patients who are responding to an anti-TNFα antibody is therapeutically beneficial. At the same time, patients who are not responding can be identified earlier. The development of a therapeutic algorithm for identifying patients as responders or non-responders can thus help prescribing physicians to both avoid ineffective treatments and adjust dosages when necessary. This in turn promotes a higher degree of treatment tolerance and patient safety in the case of anti-TNFα antibody administration. ClinicalTrial German Clinical Trials Register, Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien DRKS00005940; https://drks-neu.uniklinik-freiburg.de

  12. Increase in skin autofluorescence and release of heart-type fatty acid binding protein in plasma predicts mortality of hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsov, Stefan; Trajceska, Lada; van Oeveren, Wim; Smit, Andries J; Dzekova, Pavlina; Stegmayr, Bernd; Sikole, Aleksandar; Rakhorst, Gerhard; Graaff, Reindert

    2013-07-01

    Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are uremic toxins that accumulate progressively in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year increase in skin autofluorescence (ΔAF), a measure of AGEs accumulation and plasma markers, as predictors of mortality in HD patients. One hundred sixty-nine HD patients were enrolled in this study. Skin autofluorescence was measured twice, 1 year apart using an AGE Reader (DiagnOptics Technologies BV, Groningen, The Netherlands). Besides routine blood chemistry, additional plasma markers including superoxide dismutase, myeloperoxydase, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP), and von Willebrand factor were measured at baseline. The mortality of HD patients was followed for 36 months. Skin autofluorescence values of the HD patients at the two time points were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than those of healthy subjects of the same age. Mean 1-year ΔAF of HD patients was 0.16 ± 0.06, which was around seven- to ninefold higher than 1-year ΔAF in healthy subjects. Multivariate Cox regression showed that age, hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, ICAM-1, and H-FABP were independent predictors of overall mortality. Hypertension, 1-year ΔAF, hs-CRP, and H-FABP were also independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. One-year ΔAF and plasma H-FABP, used separately and in combination, are strong predictors of overall and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients.

  13. ASSESSMENT OF THE RESPONSE OF PATIENTS WITH CROHN'S DISEASE TO BIOLOGICAL THERAPY USING NEW NON-INVASIVE MARKERS: lactoferrin and calprotectin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islaine Martins NOGUEIRA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Context The use of fecal markers to monitor Crohn's disease is crucial for assessing the response to treatment. Objective To assess the inflammatory activity of Crohn's disease by comparing fecal markers (calprotectin and lactoferrin, colonoscopy combined with biopsy, and the Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI, as well as serum markers, before treatment with infliximab, after the end of induction, and after the end of maintenance. Methods Seventeen patients were included who had been previously diagnosed with Crohn's disease and were using conventional treatment but required the introduction of biological therapy with infliximab. Each patient underwent a colonoscopy with biopsy, serum, and fecal (calprotectin and lactoferrin tests to assess inflammatory activity, and CDAI assessments before treatment with infliximab, after induction (week 8, and after maintenance (week 32. Results The calprotectin levels exhibited significant reductions (P = 0.04 between the assessment before treatment with infliximab and the end of induction, which did not occur after the end of the maintenance phase. Lactoferrin remained positive throughout the three phases of the study. Regarding the histological assessment, a significant difference was found only between the assessment before treatment and after the end of maintenance (P = 0.036, and 60% of the patients exhibited histological improvements after the completion of the follow-up period. The CDAI exhibited a significant difference between the assessment before treatment with infliximab and after induction, as well as before treatment and after maintenance (P<0.01. Conclusion Calprotectin and lactoferrin are not useful for monitoring inflammatory activity in Crohn's disease patients who are subjected to biological therapy.

  14. The Two-Component System ArlRS and Alterations in Metabolism Enable Staphylococcus aureus to Resist Calprotectin-Induced Manganese Starvation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, Jana N.; Párraga Solórzano, Paola K.; Kehl-Fie, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    During infection the host imposes manganese and zinc starvation on invading pathogens. Despite this, Staphylococcus aureus and other successful pathogens remain capable of causing devastating disease. However, how these invaders adapt to host-imposed metal starvation and overcome nutritional immunity remains unknown. We report that ArlRS, a global staphylococcal virulence regulator, enhances the ability of S. aureus to grow in the presence of the manganese-and zinc-binding innate immune effector calprotectin. Utilization of calprotectin variants with altered metal binding properties revealed that strains lacking ArlRS are specifically more sensitive to manganese starvation. Loss of ArlRS did not alter the expression of manganese importers or prevent S. aureus from acquiring metals. It did, however, alter staphylococcal metabolism and impair the ability of S. aureus to grow on amino acids. Further studies suggested that relative to consuming glucose, the preferred carbon source of S. aureus, utilizing amino acids reduced the cellular demand for manganese. When forced to use glucose as the sole carbon source S. aureus became more sensitive to calprotectin compared to when amino acids are provided. Infection experiments utilizing wild type and calprotectin-deficient mice, which have defects in manganese sequestration, revealed that ArlRS is important for disease when manganese availability is restricted but not when this essential nutrient is freely available. In total, these results indicate that altering cellular metabolism contributes to the ability of pathogens to resist manganese starvation and that ArlRS enables S. aureus to overcome nutritional immunity by facilitating this adaptation. PMID:27902777

  15. Mortal assets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howe, Geoffrey R.; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Fix, John J.; Egel, John N.; Buchanan, Jeffrey A.

    2005-11-01

    Workers employed in 15 utilities that generate nuclear power in the United States have been followed for up to 18 years between 1979 and 1997. Their cumulative dose from whole-body ionizing radiation has been determined from the dose records maintained by the facilities themselves and the REIRS and REMS systems maintained by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Energy, respectively. Mortality in the cohort from a number of causes has been analyzed with respect to individual radiation doses. The cohort displays a very substantial healthy worker effect, i.e. considerably lower cancer and noncancer mortality than the general population. Based on 26 and 368 deaths, respectively, positive though statistically nonsignificant associations were seen for mortality from leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia) and all solid cancers combined, with excess relative risks per sievert of 5.67 (95% confidence interval (CI) -2.56, 30.4) and 0.596 (95% CI -2.01, 4.64), respectively. These estimates are very similar to those from the atomic bomb survivors study, though the wide confidence intervals are also consistent with lower or higher risk estimates. A strong positive and statistically significant association between radiation dose and deaths from arteriosclerotic heart disease including coronary heart disease was also observed in the cohort, with an ERR of 8.78 (95% CI 2.10, 20.0). Whle associations with heart disease have been reported in some other occupational studies, the magnitude of the present association is not consistent with them and therefore needs cautious interpretation and merits further attention. At present, the relatively small number of deaths and the young age of the cohort (mean age at end of follow-up is 45 years) limit the power of the study, but further follow-up is 45 years) limit the power of the study, but further follow-up and the inclusion of the present data in an ongoing IARC combined analysis of nuclear workers from 15

  16. Effect Modifying Role of Serum Calcium on Mortality-Predictability of PTH and Alkaline Phosphatase in Hemodialysis Patients: An Investigation Using Data from the Taiwan Renal Registry Data System from 2005 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Chung Lin

    Full Text Available Predicting mortality in dialysis patients based on low intact parathyroid hormone levels is difficult, because aluminum intoxication, malnutrition, older age, race, diabetes, or peritoneal dialysis may influence these levels. We investigated the clinical implications of low parathyroid hormone levels in relation to the mortality of dialysis patients using sensitive, stratified, and adjusted models and a nationwide dialysis database. We analyzed data from 2005 to 2012 that were held on the Taiwan Renal Registry Data System, and 94,983 hemodialysis patients with valid data regarding their intact parathyroid levels were included in this study. The patient cohort was subdivided based on the intact parathyroid hormone and alkaline phosphatase levels. The mean hemodialysis duration within this cohort was 3.5 years. The mean (standard deviation age was 62 (14 years. After adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, the hemodialysis duration, serum albumin levels, hematocrit levels, calcium levels, phosphate levels, and the hemodialysis treatment adequacy score, the single-pool Kt/V, the crude and adjusted all-cause mortality rates increased when alkaline phosphatase levels were higher or intact parathyroid hormone levels were lower. In general, at any given level of serum calcium or phosphate, patients with low intact parathyroid hormone levels had higher mortality rates than those with normal or high iPTH levels. At a given alkaline phosphatase level, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.33 (p 9.5 mg/dL, but in the group with intact parathyroid hormone levels > 300 pg/mL and serum calcium levels > 9.5 mg/dL, the hazard ratio was 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.85-1.01. Hence, maintaining albumin-corrected high serum calcium levels at > 9.5 mg/dL may correlate with poor prognoses for patients with low intact parathyroid hormone levels.

  17. Predicting cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease in Spain. The rationale and design of NEFRONA: a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Roig Jordi; Sarró Felipe; Vidal Teresa; Valdivielso Jose; Coll Blai; Borràs Mercè; Martínez Montserrat; Junyent Mireia; Craver Lourdes; Fernández Elvira

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Cardiovascular risk assessment in this population is hampered by the failure of traditional risk factors to fully account for the elevated CVD risk (reverse epidemiology effect) and the presence of emerging risk factors specifically related to kidney failure. Therefore, diagnostic tools capable of improving cardiovascular risk assessment beyond tradit...

  18. Predictive factors of follow-up non-attendance and mortality among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus- an analysis of the Malaysian diabetes registry 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Boon-How; Lee, Ping-Yein; Shariff-Ghazali, Sazlina; Cheong, Ai-Theng; Ismail, Mastura; Taher, Sri-Wahyu

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the factors associated with follow-up non-attendance (FUNA) and mortality among the adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Data on 57780 T2DM patients from the 2009 diabetes registry were analyzed using multinomial logistic mixed model. Out of 57780 patients, 3140 (5.4%) were lost to follow-up and 203 (0.4%) patients had died. Compared with patients who were under active follow-up, men (OR 1.37), neither on insulin (OR 1.72), nor on antiplatelet agents (OR 1.47), having higher HbA1c (OR 1.15), higher LDL-C (OR 1.18) and complications (OR 1.33) were associated with FUNA. Older age (OR 1.09) and higher LDL-C (OR 2.27) have higher mortality. Across the four different health facilities, medication use (insulin and anti-platelet agents) to achieve better disease control in the younger age when diabetes complication is absent would not cause FUNA and might reduce mortality.

  19. Fecal Occult Blood and Fecal Calprotectin as Point-of-Care Markers of Intestinal Morbidity in Ugandan Children with Schistosoma mansoni Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustinduy, Amaya L.; Sousa-Figueiredo, José C.; Adriko, Moses; Betson, Martha; Fenwick, Alan; Kabatereine, Narcis; Stothard, J. Russell

    2013-01-01

    Background Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytoplasmic protein found in neutrophils and increasingly used as a marker of bowel inflammation. Fecal occult blood (FOB) is also a dependable indicator of bowel morbidity. The objective of our study was to determine the applicability of these tests as surrogate markers of Schistosoma mansoni intestinal morbidity before and after treatment with praziquantel (PZQ). Methods 216 children (ages 3–9 years old) from Buliisa District in Lake Albert, Uganda were examined and treated with PZQ at baseline in October 2012 with 211 of them re-examined 24 days later for S. mansoni and other soil transmitted helminths (STH). POC calprotectin and FOB assays were performed at both time points on a subset of children. Associations between the test results and infection were analysed by logistic regression. Results Fecal calprotectin concentrations of 150–300 µg/g were associated with S. mansoni egg patent infection both at baseline and follow up (OR: 12.5 P = 0.05; OR: 6.8 P = 0.02). FOB had a very strong association with baseline anemia (OR: 9.2 P = 0.03) and medium and high egg intensity schistosomiasis at follow up (OR: 6.6 P = 0.03; OR: 51.3 P = 0.003). Both tests were strongly associated with heavy intensity S. mansoni infections. There was a significant decrease in FOB and calprotectin test positivity after PZQ treatment in those children who had egg patent schistosomiasis at baseline. Conclusions Both FOB and calprotectin rapid assays were found to correlate positively and strongly with egg patent S. mansoni infection with a positive ameloriation response after PZQ treatment indicative of short term reversion of morbidity. Both tests were appropriate for use in the field with excellent operational performance and reliability. Due to its lower-cost which makes its scale-up of use affordable, FOB could be immediately adopted as a monitoring tool for PC campaigns for efficacy evaluation before and after

  20. Fecal occult blood and fecal calprotectin as point-of-care markers of intestinal morbidity in Ugandan children with Schistosoma mansoni infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaya L Bustinduy

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Calprotectin is a calcium-binding cytoplasmic protein found in neutrophils and increasingly used as a marker of bowel inflammation. Fecal occult blood (FOB is also a dependable indicator of bowel morbidity. The objective of our study was to determine the applicability of these tests as surrogate markers of Schistosoma mansoni intestinal morbidity before and after treatment with praziquantel (PZQ. METHODS: 216 children (ages 3-9 years old from Buliisa District in Lake Albert, Uganda were examined and treated with PZQ at baseline in October 2012 with 211 of them re-examined 24 days later for S. mansoni and other soil transmitted helminths (STH. POC calprotectin and FOB assays were performed at both time points on a subset of children. Associations between the test results and infection were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Fecal calprotectin concentrations of 150-300 µg/g were associated with S. mansoni egg patent infection both at baseline and follow up (OR: 12.5 P = 0.05; OR: 6.8 P = 0.02. FOB had a very strong association with baseline anemia (OR: 9.2 P = 0.03 and medium and high egg intensity schistosomiasis at follow up (OR: 6.6 P = 0.03; OR: 51.3 P = 0.003. Both tests were strongly associated with heavy intensity S. mansoni infections. There was a significant decrease in FOB and calprotectin test positivity after PZQ treatment in those children who had egg patent schistosomiasis at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Both FOB and calprotectin rapid assays were found to correlate positively and strongly with egg patent S. mansoni infection with a positive ameloriation response after PZQ treatment indicative of short term reversion of morbidity. Both tests were appropriate for use in the field with excellent operational performance and reliability. Due to its lower-cost which makes its scale-up of use affordable, FOB could be immediately adopted as a monitoring tool for PC campaigns for efficacy evaluation before and after treatment.

  1. 2010~2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率预测%Prediction for Mortality of Stomach Cancer in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张建功; 马臣; 姜永晓; 全培良; 刘曙正

    2013-01-01

    [目的]分析河南省1985~2009年胃癌死亡率变化趋势,预测2010~2019年胃癌死亡率.[方法]从河南省癌症及生命统计中心数据库中抽取1985~2009年死于胃癌的全部记录,并与相应的人口数据连接.计算各时期死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率(中标率)及世界人口标化死亡率(世标率),运用Joinpoint模型估计死亡率的时间变化趋势.采用莱斯利矩阵(Leslie Matrix)分性别预测2010~2019年人口数据;运用APC (age-period-cohort)模型预测2010~2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率.[结果] 1985~2009年河南省死于胃癌总人数为72 238人.男性中标率由1985~1989年的40.16/10万下降至2005 ~2009年的23.96/10万;女性中标率由18.38/10万下降至10.91/10万.男、女性胃癌中标率均呈逐年下降趋势,男、女性模型趋势均有1个有意义的联结点.模型预测结果显示,2010~2019年河南省人口数平均增长率为4.38%‰,2019年河南省15个市县总人口数将达到1 487万.2010~2014年男性中标率为23.67/10万,女性中标率为10.33/10万.2015~2019年男性中标率为21.11/10万,女性中标率为9.56/10万.[结论] 2010~2019年河南省居民胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,但其死亡率仍较高,应继续开展以二级预防为主的预防控制策略.%[Purpose] To investigate the mortality trend of stomach cancer from 1985 to 2009 and predict its mortality (2010-2019) in Henan province. [Methods] The data of stomach cancer death 1985 to 2009 and population from was drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database. The mortality of periods,the age-standardized mortalities by Chinese population (1982) and by world Segi's population were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the time trend of the mortality. The population data (2010-2019) of Henan province was predicted by Leslie matrix.The mortality(2010~2019) was predicted by APC regression model. [Results] There

  2. Prediction of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen%厦门市居民白血病死亡与减寿趋势预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林艺兰; 陈敏; 张琼花; 池家煌

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xia-men, so as to provide the basis data on preventing leukemia cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of leukemia cancer from 2010 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost (AYLL), and the average percentage change (APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2010 to 2014, the average mortality rate of leukemia cancer in res-idents in Xiamen was 3. 45 per 100,000 persons and the rate for male was 1. 51 times of that for female. The AYLL, which was 24. 63 years, had a decline trend from 2010 to 2014. All mortality rates and AYLLs could fit out the GM(1,1) model except the mortality rate in female. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 0. 54%-6. 97%. The mortality rate and AYLL of leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2017. Conclusion GM(1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xia-men. Leukemia cancer is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City. We should not relax the prevention and control of leukemia.%目的:探讨厦门市居民白血病死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市白血病综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010—2014年厦门市居民白血病死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数( AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果2010—2014年,厦门市居民白血病死亡率3.45/10万,男性死亡率是女性的1.51倍;AYLL为24.63年,存在下降趋势。除女性死亡率外,其余男性死亡率、合计死亡率及所有AYLL均能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值

  3. Prediction of morbidity and mortality in middle and old aged surgical patients-comparison of standard scoring system and addition of echocardiography with hemodynamic indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit K. Singh

    2015-10-01

    Conclusions: In conclusion preoperative TTE before non-cardiac surgery can predict the risk of perioperative cardiac complications in known or suspected cases of cardiac disease patients. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(10.000: 2543-2548

  4. A predictive model to identify patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes at high risk of cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality: An IMMEDIATE Trial sub-study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhab Ray

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions: The multivariable predictive model developed identified patients with very early ACS at high risk of cardiac arrest or death. Using this model could assist treating those with greatest potential benefit from GIK.

  5. Time trend analysis and prediction of liver cancer mortality of residents in Henan Province,1984-2009%河南省居民1984-2009年肝癌死亡率趋势分析及预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜永晓; 马臣; 全培良; 刘曙正; 陆建邦; 陈琼; 孙喜斌

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of liver cancer between 1984 and 2009, and to predict the mortality trend of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in residents in Henan Province. Methods: The complete data of liver cancer deaths and the population data in the corresponding period (1984-2009) in Henan Province were drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Health Statistics Database. The period-specific mortality rates and the age-adjusted mortality rates directly standardized to China's population and the world population were calculated. The time trend of mortality was estimated by Joinpoint model. The mortality rates of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in Henan Province were predicted by using linear regression model. Results: A total of 53 432 cases dying with liver cancer was reported by vital statistics registry center in Henan Province between 1984 and 2009. For men, the age-standardized mortality (China's population) was 18.54/100 000 between 1984 and 1988 and it was increased to 26.85/100 000 between 2004 and 2009; for women, the age-standardized mortality (China's population) was increased from 8.14/100 000 to 12.96/100 000. The trend parameters estimated by Joinpoint model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality (China's population) of liver cancer showed an increasing trend in male and female. Predictive model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female during the period of 2010-2014 were 27.90/100 000 and 13.13/100 000, respectively; during the period of 2015-2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female were 28.50/100 000 and 13.00/100 000, respectively. Conclusion: The mortality rate of liver cancer in Henan Province was in an increasing trend, 1984-2009. This upward trend will slow down in the next ten years (2010-2019).%目的:探讨河南省居民1984-2009年肝癌死亡率变化趋势,对河南省未来10

  6. Incremental value of a combination of cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein for prediction of mortality in end-stage renal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallén, Jonas; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Ladefoged, Søren

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective. To determine the relative prognostic merits of C-reactive protein (CRP), cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) for prediction of all-cause death in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) receiving haemodialysis. Material...... were predictive of death in univariate analysis. In multivariable analysis, elevated cTnT (> 0.01 µg/l) and CRP (> 1.0 mg/dl) remained significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), 3.2 (1.2-8.5), p = 0.017 for cTnT; 2.0 (1.0-3.8), p = 0.032 for CRP], while NT...

  7. Phenomenological theory of mortality and aginge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azbel', Mark Ya.

    There are many theories of mortality, but no consensus even on the basic problem: is it genetically determined? In a general case, the problem is mathematically unsolvable. Yet, in the case of mortality, a physical approach yields its universal law. The law predicts, e.g., that mortality and senescence may decrease with age. Experiments verify it. I suggest experiments, which are supposed to produce genetic Methuselas, who live, e.g., over 20 η ( η is the mean life span), but whose biological age is less than η/2. If the universal mortality law is convincingly proven, it may lead to a quantitative model and theory of mortality and aging.

  8. Usefulness of the myocardial performance index determined by tissue Doppler imaging m-mode for predicting mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møgelvang, Rasmus; Haahr-Pedersen, Sune Ammentorp; Schnohr, Peter;

    2011-01-01

    ventricular in- and outflow using standard procedures (MPI(conv)) and by color-coded TDI M-mode through the mitral leaflet in the apical 4-chamber view (MPI(TDI)). MPI(TDI) was increased in subjects with coronary heart disease (CHD) compared to controls, even after multivariable adjustment (p ... follow-up (median 5.3 years), 90 participants died. MPI(TDI) was significantly associated with overall mortality, and risk of dying increased by 31% per 0.1 increase in MPI(TDI). In contrast to MPI(conv), MPI(TDI) provided independent prognostic information in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard...... independent prognostic information in a low-risk population...

  9. 血浆白蛋白水平在烧伤患者中预测死亡率的研究%Plasma albumin levels predict mortality in patients with burns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范建勇

    2014-01-01

    目的研究烧伤患者的血浆白蛋白水平是否能够预测死亡率。方法选取大于16岁烧伤患者,收集其临床资料,包括如简明烧伤严重指数(ABSI),血浆白蛋白,球蛋白,血脂等。ROC曲线下面积用来评估白蛋白对死亡率的预测。结果486人纳入本研究,83.1%患者的烧伤面积小于30%,16.9%的患者烧伤大于30%。最为常见的烧伤原因是火焰。患者工作情况,烧伤性质,全层烧伤,吸入性烧伤,血白蛋白在存活患者与死亡患者中的分布显著不同(P<0.05)。存活患者与死亡患者相比,烧伤面积,入院ABSI,总胆固醇,甘油三酯,球蛋白,白蛋白,总蛋白值有显著地差异(P<0.05)。白蛋白,总蛋白,白球蛋白比,球蛋白,总胆固醇,甘油三酯预测死亡率的ROC曲线下面积分别是0.861,0.852,0.836,0.756,0.744,0.372。结论入院时,白蛋白水平在烧伤患者中可以当做敏感性及特异性标记物来预测死亡率。%Objective To investigate whether the level of serum albumin to predict mortality in burn patients. Methods The clinical data in burn patients aged more than 16 years old were analyzed,including abbreviation of burn severity index(ABSI), plasma albumin, globulin, blood fat. The ROC curve was used to evaluate albumin level on mortality prediction...Results 486 people were included in this study,.and most of them with burn area were less than 30%. (83.1%),.only 16.9% of patients were more than 30%..The most common cause was a flame injury..Work situation,.burn properties, full-thickness burns, inhalation burn, blood albumin in the distribution of live and death in patients were significantly different (P<0.05). There was a significantly difference between survival patients and death patients, in burn area,.hospital ABSI, total cholesterol, triglycerides, globulin, albumin, total protein (P<0.05). The areas under ROC curve

  10. Mortality in children with complicated severe acute malnutrition is related to intestinal and systemic inflammation: an observational cohort study12

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Sara J; Di Giovanni, Valeria; Zhang, Ling; Richardson, Susan; van Rheenen, Patrick F

    2016-01-01

    Background: Diarrhea affects a large proportion of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM). However, its etiology and clinical consequences remain unclear. Objective: We investigated diarrhea, enteropathogens, and systemic and intestinal inflammation for their interrelation and their associations with mortality in children with SAM. Design: Intestinal pathogens (n = 15), cytokines (n = 29), fecal calprotectin, and the short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) butyrate and propionate were determined in children aged 6–59 mo (n = 79) hospitalized in Malawi for complicated SAM. The relation between variables, diarrhea, and death was assessed with partial least squares (PLS) path modeling. Results: Fatal subjects (n = 14; 18%) were younger (mean ± SD age: 17 ± 11 compared with 25 ± 11 mo; P = 0.01) with higher prevalence of diarrhea (46% compared with 18%, P = 0.03). Intestinal pathogens Shigella (36%), Giardia (33%), and Campylobacter (30%) predominated, but their presence was not associated with death or diarrhea. Calprotectin was significantly higher in children who died [median (IQR): 1360 mg/kg feces (2443–535 mg/kg feces) compared with 698 mg/kg feces (1438–244 mg/kg feces), P = 0.03]. Butyrate [median (IQR): 31 ng/mL (112–22 ng/mL) compared with 2036 ng/mL (5800–149 ng/mL), P = 0.02] and propionate [median (IQR): 167 ng/mL (831–131 ng/mL) compared with 3174 ng/mL (5819–357 ng/mL), P = 0.04] were lower in those who died. Mortality was directly related to high systemic inflammation (path coefficient = 0.49), whereas diarrhea, high calprotectin, and low SCFA production related to death indirectly via their more direct association with systemic inflammation. Conclusions: Diarrhea, high intestinal inflammation, low concentrations of fecal SCFAs, and high systemic inflammation are significantly related to mortality in SAM. However, these relations were not mediated by the presence of intestinal pathogens. These findings offer an important understanding of

  11. Role of fecal calprotectin testing to predict relapse in teenagers with inflammatory bowel disease who report full disease control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rheenen, Patrick F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Teenagers with inflammatory bowel disease undergo regular follow-up visits to watch for symptoms that may indicate relapse. Current disease activity is frequently estimated with the use of the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI) and the Pediatric Crohn's Disease Activity

  12. Predictive performances of lipid accumulation product vs. adiposity measures for cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, 8.6-year follow-up: Tehran lipid and glucose study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizi Fereidoun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The body mass index (BMI is the most commonly used marker for evaluating obesity related risks, however, central obesity measures have been proposed to be more informative. Lipid accumulation product (LAP is an alternative continuous index of lipid accumulation. We sought in this study to assess if LAP can outperform BMI, waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR, or waist-to-hip-ratio (WHpR in predicting incident cardiovascular disease (CVD or all-cause mortality. Results Among participants of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 6,751 participants (2,964 men, aged ≥ 30 years, were followed for a median of 8.6 years. We observed 274 deaths (men: 168 and 447 CVD events (men: 257. Levels of common CVD risk factors significantly increased across LAP quartiles. Mortality rates did not differ by LAP quartiles. Among participants free of CVD at baseline [6331 (2,741 men], CVD incident rates per 1000 person increased in a stepwise fashion with increasing LAP quartile values in both men (from 6.9 to 17.0 and women (from 1.3 to 13.0, (Ps Among women, a 1-SD increment in log-LAP conferred a 41% increased risk for CVD (HR 1.41, 95% CIs 1.02-1.96. Among men, however, LAP was not observed to be independently associated with increased risk of CVD; except in a sub-group of men assigned to the lifestyle modification interventions, where, LAP predicted CVD risk. After adjustment with CVD risk factors LAP turned to be inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality (HR, men 0.74, 95% CIs 0.61-0.90; women, 0.94 95% CIs 0.74-1.20. Among women, magnitude of increased risk of CVD due to LAP was not different from those of anthropometric measures. Among men, however, WHpR was observed to be more strongly associated with increased risk of CVD than was LAP. Among neither men nor women were the predictive performances (discrimination, calibration, goodness-of-fit of the LAP better than those of different anthropometric measures were. Conclusions If LAP is to be

  13. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  14. Diagnostic Value of Fecal Calprotectin (S100 A8/A9 Test in Children with Chronic Abdominal Pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Pieczarkowski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The aim of the study was to establish whether fecal calprotectin concentration (FCC may be useful in children with chronic abdominal pain to differentiate between inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, other inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders, and functional gastrointestinal disorders. Methods. The study included 163 patients (median age 13 years, who were assigned to four study groups: group 0 (control, 22 healthy children; group 1, 33 children with functional gastrointestinal disorders; group 2, 71 children with inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders other than IBD; group 3, 37 children with IBD. FCC was measured using ELISA assay. Results. In group 0 and group 1 FCCs were below 100 μg/g. Low FCCs were found in 91% of patients in group 2. In patients with IBD FCCs were markedly elevated with median value of 1191.5 μg/g. However, in children with inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders other than IBD and in children with IBD mean FCCs were significantly higher compared with the control group. Significant differences in FCCs were also found between group 1 and group 2, between group 1 and group 3, and between group 2 and group 3. Conclusion. FCC is the best parameter allowing for differentiation between IBD, other inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders, and functional gastrointestinal disorders. High FCC is associated with a high probability of IBD and/or other inflammatory gastrointestinal disorders, and it allows excluding functional gastrointestinal disorders.

  15. The Utility of Fecal Calprotectin in the Real-World Clinical Care of Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abej, Esmail

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To determine the relationship between fecal calprotectin (FCAL) and imaging studies and other biochemical inflammatory markers and the impact of FCAL measurements on decision-making in IBD patient management in usual clinical practice. Methods. 240 persons with IBD were enrolled. The correlation between FCAL values and other markers for disease activity such as serum albumin (alb), hemoglobin (Hg), and C-reactive protein (CRP) and diagnostic imaging or colonoscopy was examined. FCAL ≥ 250 mcg/g of stool was considered a positive result indicating active IBD. Results. 183 stool samples (76.3%) were returned. The return rate in the pediatric and adult cohorts was 91% (n = 82) and 67.3% (n = 101), respectively (P < 0.0001). Positive FCAL was associated with colonoscopy findings of active IBD (P < 0.05), low albumin (P < 0.05), anemia (P < 0.01), and elevated CRP (P < 0.01). There was no significant difference for FCAL results by outcomes on small bowel evaluation among the 21 persons with small bowel CD. Most persons (87.5%) with normal FCAL and no change in therapy remained in remission during subsequent 3 months. Conclusions. FCAL is a useful marker of disease activity and a valuable tool in managing persons with IBD in clinical practice. Clinicians have to be cautious in interpreting FCAL results in small bowel CD.

  16. Red blood cell distribution width independently predicts medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events after an acute coronary syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcato, Gianni; Serafini, Valentina; Dilda, Alice; Bovo, Chiara; Caruso, Beatrice; Ricci, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Background The value of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a simple and inexpensive measure of anisocytosis, has been associated with the outcome of many human chronic disorders. Therefore, this retrospective study was aimed to investigate whether RDW may be associated with medium-term mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods A total number of 979 patients diagnosed with ACS were enrolled from June 2014 to November 2014, and followed-up until June 2015. Results The RDW value in patients with 3-month MACE and in those who died was significantly higher than that of patients without 3-month MACE (13.3% vs. 14.0%; P14.8% exhibited a significantly short survival than those with RDW ≤14.8% (331 vs. 465 days; P<0.001). Conclusions The results of this study confirm that RDW may be a valuable, easy and inexpensive parameter for stratifying the medium-term risk in patients with ACS. PMID:27500155

  17. 中国2008年肿瘤发病和死亡情况估计及预测%Estimation and prediction on cancer related incidence and mortality in China, 2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    代敏; 任建松; 李霓; 李倩; 杨琳; 陈玉恒

    2012-01-01

    Objective To estimate the incidence and mortality rates of cancers in China in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registry sites in China and from the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) were used to estimate the incidence and mortality of cancer in China in 2008 by using mathematical models.Prediction on cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years was carried out.Results According to the age-standardized incidence rates,the top cancer sites were lung,stomach,liver,breast,oesophageal,colorectal,corpus uterine,cervical,leukemia and brain tumor.According to the age-standardized mortality rates,the top cancers in China were lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,oesophageal cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,leukemia,brain tumor and corpus uterine cancer.Cancer happened more frequently among people older than 40 years,particularly among males.Data related to prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Both incidence and mortality of cancers in China had been increasing,with the most common cancers appeared to be lung,breast and digestive tract cancers,in China.People older than 40 years should be under specific care to receive prevention and care on cancer,with males in particular.%目的 估计2008年中国肿瘤发病和死亡的情况,并预测今后20年发病数和死亡数.方法 根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查(2004-2005年)的结果,估计2008年恶性肿瘤的发病和死亡情况,预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年的发病数和死亡数.结果 中国按世界人口标化发病率排前10位的癌症是肺癌(33.5/10万)、胃癌、肝癌、乳腺癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、子宫体癌、子宫颈癌、白血病和脑瘤/神经肿瘤(4.4/10万);按世界人口标化死亡率排前10位的癌症依次为肺癌(28.7/10万)、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、子

  18. Spectral analysis-based risk score enables early prediction of mortality and cerebral performance in patients undergoing therapeutic hypothermia for ventricular fibrillation and comatose status

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Background: Early prognosis in comatose survivors after cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) is unreliable, especially in patients undergoing mild hypothermia. We aimed at developing a reliable risk-score to enable early prediction of cerebral performance and survival. Methods: Sixty-one out of 239 consecutive patients undergoing mild hypothermia after cardiac arrest, with eventual return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), and comatose status on admission fulfilled the inclu...

  19. The law of mortality revisited: interspecies comparisons of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olshansky, S J

    2010-01-01

    In 1825 the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz believed he had discovered a consistency in the timing of death in people that was so important that he labelled his observation a 'law of mortality'. To Gompertz, this 'law' was equivalent in importance to Newton's law of gravity because he believed it would be observed in all living things. Gompertz's quest for the 'law' eventually failed, as did similar efforts by other scientists in the 19th and most of the 20th century. However, the search for the law of mortality was successfully resolved in 1996 when my colleagues and I discovered that the only way to 'see' Gompertz's law expressed as common age patterns of death across species was to partition total mortality into its intrinsic and extrinsic components, and examine mortality schedules on a uniform time scale. Scientists had been unable to reveal the law of mortality in the past not only because they could not partition total mortality, but also because of the previous anthropocentric perspective that forced some scientists to view duration of life along a single time scale - one based on human measurements of chronological time. The law of mortality is relevant today not only because it links the epidemiology of disease, ageing and death across species, but because it creates a window into the future for those who study disease epidemiology in animals that now live long enough in protected environments to experience the biological consequences of ageing. In this paper I summarize the historical search for the law of mortality, explain why the solution could only be found by linking two seemingly unconnected scientific disciplines (evolution biology and actuarial/demographics), explain why age patterns of disease and death in humans may be used to understand and predict disease epidemiology in other species, and describe how a new scientific discipline has arisen in the modern era as a result of this research.

  20. The model for end-stage liver disease score-based system predicts short term mortality better than the current Child-Turcotte-Pugh score-based allocation system during waiting for deceased liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Geun; Lee, Kwang-Woong; Suh, Sukwon; Yoo, Tae; Kim, Hyeyoung; Park, Min-Su; Choi, Youngrok; Yi, Nam-Joon; Suh, Kyung-Suk

    2013-08-01

    To adopt the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score-based system in Korea, the feasibility should be evaluated by analysis of Korean database. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of the MELD score-based system compared with the current Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) based-system and to suggest adequate cut-off to stratify waiting list mortality among Korean population. We included 788 adult patients listed in waiting list in Seoul National University Hospital from January 2008 to May 2011. The short-term survival until 6 months after registration was evaluated. Two hundred forty six (31.2%) patients underwent live donor liver transplantation and 353 (44.8%) patients were still waiting and 121 (15.4%) patients were dropped out due to death. Significant difference was observed when MELD score 24 and 31 were used as cut-off. Three-months survival of Status 2A was 70.2%. However, in Status 2A patients whose MELD score less than 24 (n=82), 86.6% of patients survived until 6 month. Furthermore, patients with high MELD score (≥31) among Status 2B group showed poorer survival rate (45.8%, 3-month) than Status 2A group. In conclusion, MELD score-based system can predict short term mortality better and select more number of high risk patients in Korean population.

  1. Can Fecal Calprotectin Level Be Used as a Markers of Inflammation in the Diagnosis and Follow-Up of Cow's Milk Protein Allergy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancak, Selim; Erkan, Tülay; Kutlu, Tufan; Çokuğraş, Haluk; Çokuğraş, Fügen Ç.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Calprotectin is a cytosolic protein with immunomodulatory, antimicrobial, and antiproliferative actions. The concentration of calprotectin increases in infection, inflammation, and malignancy. We determined if calprotectin can be used as a marker for the diagnosis and follow-up of bowel inflammation in cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Methods In total, 32 patients newly diagnosed with CMPA were included (24 IgE-mediated, 8 non-IgE-mediated). In all subjects, a complete blood count, total IgE, cow's milk-specific IgE, and fecal calprotectin (FC) were assessed before and after a cow's milk protein (CMP) elimination diet was started. The results were compared with those of 39 healthy children. Results The mean FC value before the CMP elimination diet was 516±311 µg/g in the 32 patients with CMPA and 296±94 µg/g in the control group (P=0.011). The mean FC value after the diet in these patients was 254±169 µg/g, which was significantly different from the mean value before the CMP elimination diet (P<0.001). When we compared FC levels before the CMP elimination diet in the IgE-mediated group with the control group, we found no significant statistical difference (P=0.142). The mean FC value before the CMP elimination d